Your Survivor Predictions (4/25)- note recap episode also on tonight

[elf6c]

Just a reminder- the recap episode with "extra, unseen footage" is on tonight. The real episode is on tomorrow night at the usual time.

Let's put in our predictions for tomorrow night (my prediction for tonight's recap show is that it will be boring, and unwatched by me).

Request: please do not post spoilers from the early feed "prediction" sites. Those are not predictions those are simply reports.

That said- the field is wide open, with a good deal of crow to be handed out by the rough alliance of bad players. The question is how long can they keep it together? No one wants Sean there- he is annoying and a threat. I think the rough alliance can hold it together the one more week that it needs to and Zoe gets the boot.

Overall, my Tammy prediction looks real bad now- Nelah now looks pretty good, no enemies and a devoted Pascal willing to do whatever she says- including sacrifice himself.

Outside chance that the rough alliance breaks enough that Sean goes. I doubt it though.

It is going to be really fun to watch. The original alliance was so stupid in how they handled the merge, the existance of their alliance (they are suppossed to be secret you idiots) and Pascal and Nelah. They are getting what they deserve.

-me

[dragongirl]

I think Tammy will be gone tomorrow night. I think they were really annoyed by how cocky she acted and the others will get rid of her before Sean.

[Dinsdale]

I'd guess betw Tammy or Zoe. If I had to choose, I'd say Zoe b/c Kathy is on a vendetta, and I can see the others going along just to shut that harpy up!

I think I'll join you in not watching the "rerun" tonight.

[monster]

I think Tammy is going.

[Spoke]

No one wants Sean there- he is annoying and a threat.

Sean could be a kingmaker. If I were there, I can't imagine anyone I'd rather go up against in the final vote. Therefore, and alliance with him might be strategically beneficial.

I can imagine a member of the now-broken alliance approaching Sean and V to form a secret sub-alliance of three (to counter Paschal, Neleh and Tammy). We'll see.

[minty green]

There is a pretty interesting article (http://www.realitynewsonline.com/article1785.html) over on DavidB's site that makes the exact same argument about Sean, spoke-. Don't worry, it's not a spoiler, just some good analysis of the strategies for the players and their alliances. I don't think Sean will get the chance to play kingmaker, however, since too many of the other players can't stand him. I think he's toast next week.

This week's prediction is tough. N-P-K need to kick out one more the of the three remaining alliance members to shore up their own position, so I think it's almost certain to be one of Tammy, Zoe, or Robert.

We still don't know any context for Zoe's split from the alliance, so it's hard to say whether Kathy still wants her out. My guess is that she told somebody from the other side she was switching before the vote, even if it wasn't Kathy. That switch in alleigances will probably save her this week, if not for too much longer.

That makes it a decision between Tammy and Robert. Tammy is already an immunity threat, whereas Robert hasn't won anything. She's also got some of John's arrogance, so I think she's naturally a bit more of a target than Robert. If Tammy doesn't win immunity, I think she'll take the walk of shame.

[Munch]

minty, did Zoe switch allegience? I thought the vote was 5-4 (N-P-K-S-V vs. R-T-Z-J).

If it were me, I'd vote off Robert. But that's simply based on pure, unadulterated fear of that enormous chin.

[minty green]

Indeed she did, Munch. Zoe joined N-P-K-S-V in voting for John. There was no indication of the defection during the show, and it was easy to miss when they showed the votes during John's goodby speech.

[Munch]

Think that's just Zoe trying to suck up to Kathy? I don't think it'll matter in the long haul - unless she manages to win some serious immunity challenges.

[elf6c]

Nice Catch minty green . I did not see that Zoe backstabbed John. She must be trying to save her own skin. I doubt it will work. Another thing- I have wondered if the immunity challenge really did cause Nelah to go after John, or if that is the excuse she used to Pascal (who earlier had wanted to vote for Sean who he rightfully dislikes). Either way, the original alliance handled that reward challenge quite stupidly (get Sean out- then tank the contest, duh).

Oh boy, is Thursday's show going to be fun. . . .


-me

[Spoke]

...and of course I meant the Paschal-Neleh-Kathy alliance in my earlier post.

Sean, if he's smart, could really make hay by constantly shifting allegiance. Last week, he joined the P-N-K alliance. He should stick with that this week to knock off, say, Robert. This will have Zoe and Tammy running scared.

Then next week, Sean and V should shift into alliance with Tammy and Zoe, with the promise of breaking the P-N-K alliance, knocking off, say, Neleh.

The following week he should secretly approach Kathy, and offer to take her to the final three. She secretly agrees. Tammy and Zoe, none the wiser, join Sean and V to vote off Paschal. Kathy keeps her credibility by voting for Zoe or Tammy.

The following week, Sean, V and Kathy pick off Tammy, then the next week knock off Zoe.

Sean, V and Kathy in the final three.

If Sean were smart.

[Little Nemo]

Zoe is the key now. Why did she drop out of the alliance? Obviously someone approached her before the vote and made a new deal. The question is who and what was the deal?

My guess is that Neleh and Paschal regard their alliance with Sean as being very temporary. Both of them obviously want him gone and only voted with him because they had to for their own survival. As soon as they safely can, they'll vote against him. If they were the ones who made the deal with Zoe (which I think is most likely) then Sean will probably go this week.

The second most likely scenario was that there was a re-approachment between Kathy and Zoe. But even if so, I can't see Zoe jumping over just for an alliance with Kathy. If this is what happened, I'd bet on a new Gang of Four with Kathy, Neleh, Paschal, and Zoe (and maybe Vecepia). Once again, Sean's likely to be the next to fall.

If Sean does manage to hold his backing together, I see Robert as the next most likely target of that alliance. Tammy and Zoe (assuming she isn't part of it) will be seen as less threatening in the individual challenges.

On the re-caps, this gives me a chance to raise a couple of points I didn't post earlier. Prior to the maze immunity challenge, John was shown saying he wanted to throw the challenge in order to have an opportunity to vote Rob off. Rob guessed this might happen and made sure he led the Rotu's to victory. I know there were three people who had to be on the team because they had sat out the previous challenge, but Rob wasn't guaranteed the fourth spot. So given that John controlled four out of seven votes, why didn't he use that to keep Rob off the team so he couldn't influence the outcome?

After the Maraamu's lost that same immunity challenge, they were faced with a difficult decision on who to vote off. It was clearly going to be Gina or Kathy and from what we saw, Neleh and Paschal genuinely liked both people. When I was watching the show, I said Gina should have tried to get herself a better chance by suggesting that Neleh and Paschal split their votes so it went to a tie. That way it would have gone to the tiebreaker quiz and Gina would have at least controlled her own destiny. Personally, I think Neleh and Paschal would have gone for this idea.

A few other points: Was it just me or did the narrator (Jeff Probst?) keep pronouncing Maraamu as Mataamu? And why, when the tribes were reshuffled, were all the contestants still shown in their original tribes in the opening credits? And why is it that this year you see large groups going to get the mail? In previous years, it was always two people. Was that a rule that was dropped or just a custom that this season's people aren't following?

One final idea: in the spirit of keeping everything interesting, maybe next year they could have the contestants form real alliances. After the first few days of getting to know each other, the players would be divided up into couples (either by choice or at random). From that point on, each couple would vote together, win challenges together, be voted off together, and split whatever money they ended up with.

[elf6c]

I ended up skipping the recap episode last night- was there anything worth noting which was revealed?

-me

[Billy Baroo]

Originally posted by Little Nemo
Zoe is the key now. Why did she drop out of the alliance? Obviously someone approached her before the vote and made a new deal. The question is who and what was the deal?

My guess is that Neleh and Paschal regard their alliance with Sean as being very temporary. Both of them obviously want him gone and only voted with him because they had to for their own survival.

So how 'bout Neleh, Paschal, Robert, Zoe? All the way to final 4, bub. That would make me some money: I bet on R & Z after Episode 1.

[Munch]

One final idea: in the spirit of keeping everything interesting, maybe next year they could have the contestants form real alliances. After the first few days of getting to know each other, the players would be divided up into couples (either by choice or at random). From that point on, each couple would vote together, win challenges together, be voted off together, and split whatever money they ended up with.

I believe that show is called The Amazing Race.

[Little Nemo]

I believe that show is called The Amazing Race.

I'll admit I had this idea while watching a commercial for The Amzaing Race during an episode of Survivor. But I don't think of it as stealing. I think of it as gathering inspiration.

[musicguy]

Before this season started, I picked Sean, based solely on the profiles put up on the Survivor site. Within 2 weeks, I felt like a moron. Now, I'm not so sure. I don't personally like him that much but he surprised me last week. I agree that anyone would probably like to be in the final 2 with him because he has pissed so many off but right now he is one of the least likely to win. Considering Mark Burnett's editing skills, what if he isn't as disliked as he appears? Burnett really enjoys making it look like someone is dead meat, only to have the least likely person get the boot (Hunter anyone?). It would not shock me if Sean won the whole thing.

Of course, I still haven't ruled out the "I'm a moron" thing yet :)

[Liberal]

Here's what I posted in the MESS hall at SurvivorSucks for this week's contest (I haven't seen Acme Brain Trust yet):

The Real Questions

RC -- Who wins (remember to name a pair)? What's the challenge? Sean/Pappy a race over land and water
IC -- Who wins? What's the challenge? Sean stilt walking
TC -- Who joins Sobbing John on the Jury? Tammy Zoe betrays her

The Fantasy Questions

Who's safe this week? Zoe hopefully some points
Who will the bootee vote for? Zoe Tammy knows about the betrayal
Who forms the craft new strategy? Paschal he decides to let Sean lead the new alliance until he self-destructs
Will God strike Vee down? Nah He deserves the praise.

[Ferrous]

Isn't it about time for a food auction RC? (Robert pays $500 for a cheeseburger and a beer; Neleh pays $350 for a chocolate milkshake; Paschal plays it smart, waits until the end, and gets a turkey dinner for $100....much puking ensues...)

[Liberal]

The frame-by-frame analysis of the vidcaps seems to indicate at least some swimming, and a portion of the threads that hang from Sean's shorts appears to be visible in a shot of the dancers.

[Johnny L.A.]

Was it just me or did the narrator (Jeff Probst?) keep pronouncing Maraamu as Mataamu?
I always assumed it was a "trilled" R.

[Jadis]

Well.....ABT and the other spoiler site (Phoenix?) both got it wrong this week. What do you know?

SPOILER:





















All that I have to say is that voting out Zoe wasn't a last minute decision. I knew she was going when Zoe was talking to Robert as he was hacking away at the firewood. He said something to the effect of "I chopped all this wood, and I'm going to burn it in the next four days." That little hint whooshed right over Zoe's head, and he said it again, maybe twice.

Next four days. Not the next *one* day, which is what he'd have if he really thought he was going to be voted out the next day. Four days. As in, not the next tribal council, but the one after that. And as we keep seeing, anything can happen between now and then.

Looks like Pappy's not so keen on dumping Sean at the first opportunity anymore.

Interesting episode.

[minty green]

SPOILERS!!!






Damn you, Sean! I'm beginning to think he's actually going to make it to the Final Four. I still hope for his boot next week, though. Kathy was strangely quiet tonight, even though she's the obvious Non-Alliance Alliance instigator behind Zoe's boot. Going after Sean now would be the best strategic move, since he's a serious immunity threat, while Robert and Tammy are effectively marginalized. Of course, getting that past Paschal is going to be tough, and aligning with Robert and Tammy would be suicide at this point. Ack, he's going to go far! :(

Damn you, John! If only you'd booted Rob's lame ass instead of Blue Lagoon Boy, Sean would have been the first one kicked after the merge, you'd still have a solid-but-quiet alliance with the General and Tammy, and the game would be yours. Now I'm stuck with the disquieting prospect of a Kathy-Sean final. :eek:

[PunditLisa]

Sean, if he's smart, could really make hay by constantly shifting allegiance. Last week, he joined the P-N-K alliance. He should stick with that this week to knock off, say, Robert. This will have Zoe and Tammy running scared.

I disagree. This might get him to the final round, but piss off enough people and they'll never vote for you to win the million. How quickly we forget the "snake in the grass" speech....

I was surprised they voted off Zoe. Although she was so bitchy I can see why they'd want the General to stick around a few more days vs. Zoe. I don't like Tammy anymore. She'd better keep winning immunity.

[PunditLisa]

I also want to note that so far no one has dissed Sean for crying about his mama. You were merciless to gay John. Hypocrites. :)

Also wanted to note that John cleaned up well. Looked a bit like Timothy Hutton sitting on the jury....

[Why A Duck]

I hate to say it, but I'm starting to like Sean. My wife made an interesting point last night: maybe all his early shenanigans were just an attempt to be cool, to fit in, to not be a chump. I still haven't totally forgiven him for all the slavery cracks, but I think this experience has changed him a bit. Then again, maybe I'll be walking down the runway holding the roses and wearing the tiara at next year's Mr. Gullible pageant.

Oh, and about the crying game. I bled all over John because he tried to be so tough and in control. He was the puppetmaster (sorry Rob). So when his puppets finally turned on him and he cried (away from his minions), I felt like I was watching A Christmas Story when Ralphie finally beats the snot out of Scott Farkas.

I have no issue with tears as such. Hell, put me out there for a month away from my family with minimal food, constant sun exposure, and backstabbing team mates and I'd be screaming for my mommy too.

Robert and Tammy are so screwed. They can't even suck up well.

[elf6c]

I admit the wife and I were laughing at the teary eyed antics of Sean and Pascal. Pascal, for a judge, is quite an idiot. First he allows himself to be led by the nose by Neleh. Then he goes from hating Sean and wanting him out- to loving Sean in like three days. Don't forget his ultra-quick switcheroo on John after the reward challenge after Neleh bent his ear. Talk about gullible.

I was a bit depressed at the though of the finals- all of the worthy players do look like they will not make it. The last interesting question is when Sean and V will make their move, as they will drop at 5, and 4 respectively unless they break up the Pascal & Nelel block soon (Kathy will probably be in their pocket, and go out three). Pascal is just itching to lose to Neleh in the final two (which I believe has been Neleh's plan all along).

Sean and V, if smart will need to recruit either Kathy (unlikely- as she would have to know they would screw her at 3, unless Sean then in turn screws V at 3 as she is too much of a threat before the jury, unlike the abrasive Kathy who would have just screwed the other former Rotu's, hmm. . . . .). Or try to add the General or Tammy, which would be a threat down the road (but maybe a good jury move given the recent lack of love to the former alliance and the Zoe vs Tammy and the general hate fest.) The key for Sean and/or V is not to go up against Pascal or Neleh in the finals. If I am Sean, any of Tammy, the general or Kathy is a much better match up than Pascal, Neleh or V. But Sean isn't nearly as bright as he thinks he is, so we will see.

BTW: John got his lampooning for acting out this tough guy act, then blurbering like a 6 year old when he got dumped. Yeesh, how embarassing. . . .

-me

[elf6c]

Originally posted by Why A Duck
Robert and Tammy are so screwed. They can't even suck up well.

Not nearly as bad as the transparent attempts of Zoe to ditch her old team with the dumbest, most obvious lies. Nice, those shell bracelet's ought to fool them. Zoe's and the General's true colors came out- and I imagine both will be embarassed to see them on tape. Tammy on the other hand, has been impressive winning two challenges in a row (one under extreme pressure), and been pretty upright the whole time. Her only mistake was taking the general with her when talking to Neleh and her minion Pascal. Also the approach she usedd could have been better too :rolleyes: .

-me

[Spoke]

PunditLisa wrote:I disagree. This [switching allegiances] might get [Sean] to the final round, but piss off enough people and they'll never vote for you to win the million. How quickly we forget the "snake in the grass" speech....

Yeah, but see, Sean really has no choice but to switch allegiances if he wants to make the finals. If he sticks with the P-N-K alliance, then he's toast as soon as they get down to the five of them. By switching allegiances, he and V can constantly remain in the majority.

If Sean is smart, he and V will ally themselves with Robert and Tammy next week to eliminate Paschal or Neleh, and then make a secret deal with Kathy on the side. Kathy will go for it, as it will be her only chance to stay alive.

V is now my pick as the ultimate winner, with Sean finishing 2nd.

[jsc1953]

It would be fun to see somebody transfer their immunity during tribal council--just to see the looks on alliance member faces, as they figure out who to vote for without huddling.

But the only way a person would feel secure enough to give up immunity is if they're a member of an alliance. It could be an interesting ploy to give it up to the non-member who's not the designated bootee. For instance: if Vee had won the stilt challenge, she could have given her immunity to Rob, knowing that Tammy or Zoe was gone anyway. Perhaps a way of granting a favor that can be cashed in down the road.

[Dinsdale]

So what's the drill - either Rob or Tammy next week, and then one of Sean or V? How tight is Kathy with Neleh and Paschal?

I'm a little disappointed because this is the first time it had this far to go and there really wasn't a soul I WANTED to win - even a little bit. Now it is almost a matter of which winner will piss me off the most.

Sure wouldn't care for the prospect of appearing in Paschal's courtroom.

Re tears, IMO there is a difference between crying about your mom, and crying to her.

The challenges were pretty lame. Hard to convey much drama through the filming and editing.

Don't know if there is much point in a food auction. Everyone looks pretty well fed. Course, it looks ike next week Kathy tries to whack a shark.

John sure did clean up well.

[Ferrous]

Originally posted by Why A Duck
I hate to say it, but I'm starting to like Sean. My wife made an interesting point last night: maybe all his early shenanigans were just an attempt to be cool, to fit in, to not be a chump. I still haven't totally forgiven him for all the slavery cracks, but I think this experience has changed him a bit. Then again, maybe I'll be walking down the runway holding the roses and wearing the tiara at next year's Mr. Gullible pageant.
Yeah, I agree. I'm starting to think also that maybe his assholishness was a bit overemphasized at first. Certainly the racist streak is there, but possibly it was exaggerated by selective editing, or was, to some degree, put-on for Vee's benefit? He certainly seems to be a decent fellow now...

I think Tammy and Robert are toast. I beleive the other five are sincere in their alliance now. "Honesty" issues, and all that...maybe we should call them "The Moral Majority":D

Tammy's only hope is to "pull a Kelly" and win all the immunities from here on out. As soon as she loses, she's gone. Robert is probably the next to go---he's never been competitive in the challenges.

After that it gets complicated. We seem to have two alliances of two (N/P and S/V), and possibly another (S/P), and Kathy. Kathy is obviously the swing vote, but I think she'll be disposed to stick with her former tribemates N and P.

So, possible scenario:
Once Tammy and Rob are gone, N/P/K get rid of Vee first, isolating Sean. Then N/P/S get rid of Kathy, leaving the three Bosom Buddies. Next, Paschal takes the bullet for his beloved Sweet Pea, leaving Neleh and Sean as the final two. Neleh wins hands down.

[elf6c]

Originally posted by jsc1953
It would be fun to see somebody transfer their immunity during tribal council--just to see the looks on alliance member faces, as they figure out who to vote for without huddling.

But the only way a person would feel secure enough to give up immunity is if they're a member of an alliance. It could be an interesting ploy to give it up to the non-member who's not the designated bootee. For instance: if Vee had won the stilt challenge, she could have given her immunity to Rob, knowing that Tammy or Zoe was gone anyway. Perhaps a way of granting a favor that can be cashed in down the road.

Pascal would do this for Neleh in a heartbeat. In fact, his general clingyness and devotion to her is just this side of dirty old man-dom.

As someone else pointed about in an earlier week's Survivor thread, I wonder how his Neleh fixation is going over with his wife- especially if he loses the million to her?

-me

[Ferrous]

Originally posted by Ferrous
So, possible scenario:
Once Tammy and Rob are gone, N/P/K get rid of Vee first, isolating Sean. Then N/P/S get rid of Kathy, leaving the three Bosom Buddies. Next, Paschal takes the bullet for his beloved Sweet Pea, leaving Neleh and Sean as the final two. Neleh wins hands down.
Okay, on further consideration, I doubt it will go down like this. I still think V goes first of the five, but then they'd have to realize that Sean is a major threat in the challenges and vote him off first.

Then for the final three, of course, the winner of the IC picks who goes with them. If Kathy wins, she takes either Neleh or Paschal. She'll lose to either one. If either N or P win, they'll take the other. As for which one of them the jury likes best...who knows?

The upshot is: I'm picking either Neleh or Paschal to win, but I don't know which. (I'm rooting for Neleh, though.)

That's my story, and I'm sticking to it...until I change my mind.;)

[mobo85]

Am I the only one who thought of From Here to Eternity when Sean and Paschal won the reward challenge?

[jsc1953]

Originally posted by Ferrous

Okay, on further consideration, I doubt it will go down like this. I still think V goes first of the five, but then they'd have to realize that Sean is a major threat in the challenges and vote him off first.



Has Sean ever been a factor in a winning challenge? It looked like in last night's reward challenge, his role was to pour the coconut juice after Paschal rounded them up and cracked 'em open.

Or maybe he's just sandbagging. :)

[minty green]

I'm cheering for Tammy from now on. I know she's dead as soon as she messes up a challenge, but I like her aggressiveness and her screw-you attitude towards the peasants who hijacked the game. Go Tammy!

[Ferrous]

Oh, me too, minty. I'd love for Tammy to win. It's too bad she doesn't have a chance unless she wins ALL of the remaining Immunity Challenges. Could happen, I suppose, but not too bloody likely. Still...she's a fighter. If anyone can pull it off, maybe she can. If she does, she just might get enough jury votes to win out of sheer respect for her bad-assedness.


("Peasants", indeed!:D)

jsc,
He hasn't been much of a factor yet, but once all the real competitors are gone, he'll be looking pretty good.

[Spoke]

Kathy has to know that she has no chance in a final vote against Neleh or Paschal, which is why it will behoove her to make a secret pact with Sean. I think hard-driving Kathy is "in it to win it" and she will not graciously hand the game to N-P. She will seek a way to wind up in a final vote against Sean.

[ElvisL1ves]

Disclaimer: Predictions ignore unpredictable immunity wins.

Lessee here, at the moment we've got 3 tight pairs (Sean-Vecepia, Paschal-Neleh, and Tammy-Robert, with the leaders listed first), and 1 free agent (Kathy), and they all know the situation. 2 of the pairs can team up and make sure they're the final 4, but none of the pairs gains anything by partnering with Kathy because they can't be sure the other 2 pairs won't join forces. Kathy's only hope is to try to prevent any 2-pair alliances from forming this week, but she doesn't have the diplomatic skill to pull it off. Rather, they'll all see her as unpredictable and the most likely power broker, and she's out next time.

Next up: Dunno, depends on which 2 pairs decide to trust each other enough to form the final 4, and making that decision will be Sean, Paschal, and Tammy. Come to think of it, Sean and Paschal have a tighter bond than any other combination. Tammy and Robert go next, and the final 4 are Sean, Paschal, Vecepia, and Neleh, with immunity challenges deciding the final 2. Physical fitness matters at that point, so I'll say Sean and Neleh are the finalists, with the more-likable Neleh winning among a jury of mainly-Sean-hating Rotus.

[Little Nemo]

I am so bad at this game.

Obviously, my prediction that Paschal would form a voting alliance against Sean was completely off the mark. From what he saw, it looks like Paschal's ready to adopt another kid.

In my opinion, the best part of this episode was watching the total collapse of Robert, Tammy, and Zoe. It was only a week ago that they were Master of the Universe. Seeing them go form the very top to the very bottom with a single vote, and then seeing all three of them handle it so poorly, was great.

At this point, I'm not even going to try to guess what happens next.

[kiffa]

Hehehe, I really liked the collapse of the Alliance. They deserved to get knocked out, one by one by one, when they were so arrogant to not "do the math" while gloatingly chopping off those coconut bundles. Zoe's attempt at friendship with the bracelets was just too much for words... almost as pathetic as her crestfallen, disbelieving face when she was voted out.

Back to math: I think anyone who wants to identify the survivor must do the math as well for the final two-some. Jon, Robert, Tammy and Zoe vs Neleh, V, Sean, Pascal, Kathy [minus two]. That's four vs three.... I would assume that the Alliance architect, Jon, would have alot of influence on who gets that final vote. Sean can kiss his cute butt good-bye. Kathy can do so as well if Zoe has any input/influence. Will NVSPK court Robert or Tammy in the next episode? Probably not.

My predictions [for the moment since I reserve the right to change when the mood hits me].
Tammy off
Robert off
Kathy off
Sean off
Pascal off
Face off between Neleh and V