The Morning Line

[Ursa Major]

California racetracks(horses) have what is called paramutual betting, where gamblers are pretty much betting against each other and the track takes a set percentage of the action. That means that the odds are determined by the total amount of money bet on each horse. The odds constantly change until post time when they become set.

What I don't understand is how the track comes up with the odds they publish in their programs and in the morning paper. These odds (called the morning line) are somehow determined before anyone has bet any money.

How are these odds arrived at? Does the track employ handicappers to make these determinations? Aren't they influencing the way people bet by this kind of handicapping? What's to keep someone from paying off the handicapper to give 20-1 odds on the favorite, thus insuring that the horse brings a longshot price when it wins?

I know the morning line disappears once people start betting, but I'm sure it has a huge influence on how people bet.

[RealityChuck]

The morning line is just a guess by the handicappers (usually the handicappers at the Daily Racing Form). They take a look at how the horse ran and give a rough estimate of the odds using past performances. If there are no past performances, then breeding is considered.

In theory, someone might bribe a handicapper to improve or reduce the odds on a horse, but it's pretty pointless. If a horse's morning line doesn't seem to match his past performances, someone's going to notice. Further, the bettors will quickly create their own odds via the parimutuel route, so you don't gain any real advantage by influencing them.

"I make it Valentine
'cause on the morning line
You know they've got him pegged at 5 to 9."



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"What we have here is failure to communicate." -- Strother Martin, anticipating the Internet.

www.sff.net/people/rothman (http://www.sff.net/people/rothman)

[Doug Bowe]

I worked PR with some folks at Sunland Park several years ago. The handicapper was a person born and raised around racehorses with good record at calling a finish.
Honestly, there are too many factors at play on the day of the race for an accurate days-in-advance call. What's the condition of the track? What's the wind condition?
For that matter what's the weather in general? How does each horse look just before the race?
Even a very conservative show/parlay bet that doesn't consider these factors can be dicey.
It is my belief that the handicap line exisits simply to draw interest in the race.