Survivor 4/10/03 (warning: spoilers!)

[Realhoops]

Didn't see the weekly thread yet.... who's out this week? Predictions? I think the alliance will hold up one more week and Butch is a goner, but it's always possible that "creepy" Skeletor could pose too much of a physical threat and get bumped first.

Anyone else?

[BiblioCat]

I think Deena and Rob's little alliance may hold up for another week. If it does, I'm guessing either Butch or maybe one of the other girls.
Of course, it all depends on who wins immunity.

Deena does not want Heidi or Jenna in the Final Two with her, because none of the guys she's bumping off will vote for her over either of those two. She needs to take Rob with her to the Finals (if she can hold out that long).

I'd love to see Heidi get booted. She annoys me to no end.

[singular1]

As much as I hate to say it, all the spoiler sites are poiting to Deena. I like her, but a logical alliance may be created by Matt, Butch, Christy and Alex, since it seems pretty obvious they're all out of the power allegiance of Deena, Heidi, Jenna and Rob, which they don't seem to be making too much effort to hide. The IC appears to be a food challenge (I think it'll be the first one ever given post-merge!), and Matt would have no problem with that, given his exotic epicurian background.
But, yeah, it would please me to see Heidiho go!

[BiblioCat]

Aw, I'd be disappointed to see Deena go now, but if the guys gang up on them and start getting rid of the girls, she'll be the first one out.

As you suggested, an alliance of Matt, Butch, Christy and Alex could get rid of her. I also think Rob could also be swayed over to a new alliance. I don't see him being very loyal. He just wants to be liked, and would vote with whichever group promises to carry him along.

This week's challenge looks to be the Gross Food Challenge. I don't know how they do that. I'm all for trying new foods, but I could never eat a fuzzy fried tarantula or those live, squirming grubs that are big. :eek:
I'm not a picky eater, but if I tried to swallow a grub that was still moving, I'd barf.

[simply_cats]

I don't know, a lot of the spoiler sites I looked at had Deena or Alex being booted. I personally am hoping for Alex of these two. I'd love to see Heidi booted, but I think she's definitely safe for at least two more shows.

Can't wait for the fireworks to start :) I love Survivor Thursday; perfect lead-in to Happy Friday!

[Mullinator]

My heart says Deena, my brain says Alex, my common sense says I have no chance of being right.

[BiblioCat]

Originally posted by simply_cats
I don't know, a lot of the spoiler sites I looked at had Deena or Alex being booted. A lot of the Survivor spoiler sites that were always right in previous years have been wrong with this version of Survivor. I guess they've been able to keep a tighter lid on things.

[Ferrous]

Hey folks? (simply_cats, singular1, I'm talking to you.) While I don't really put much stock in the Survivor spoiler sites, considering their poor track record (from what I've read on this board---I don't read them), I'd still prefer not to read spoilers before the show airs. I'm sure I'm not alone in this.

So could you please not put spoilers in the very first sentence of your post with no warning? Pretty please? You don't have to use the spoiler boxes if you don't want to. Just a little warning like "Spoilers follow..." and maybe a few spaces. That way, those of us who wish to remain spoiler-free can skip them.

I promise to come back and read them after the show to see if you were right, okay? :)

[Green Bean]

:mad: USE SPOILER TAGS IF YOU'RE GOING TO POST SPOILERS BEFORE THE FIRST AIRING OF THE SHOW! :mad:

Yes, I'm shouting.

Sorry if someone has said this already. I stopped reading the thread as soon as I saw the first spoiler. And I don't care if it's from a "spoiler site," which may or may not be accurate. If I wanted spoilers, I'd go to the spoiler sites myself.

I won't open this thread it again until after the show, so if you want to bitch at me for yelling at you, I won't see it until then

[Ferrous]

Heh. See what I mean?:D

I love it when I get to come off as the calm voice of reason.

Buy you a beer, Greenie?

[Mahaloth]

Originally posted by Green Bean
:mad: USE SPOILER TAGS IF YOU'RE GOING TO POST SPOILERS BEFORE THE FIRST AIRING OF THE SHOW! :mad:

Yes, I'm shouting.

Sorry if someone has said this already. I stopped reading the thread as soon as I saw the first spoiler. And I don't care if it's from a "spoiler site," which may or may not be accurate. If I wanted spoilers, I'd go to the spoiler sites myself.

I won't open this thread it again until after the show, so if you want to bitch at me for yelling at you, I won't see it until then

I know you aren't reading this 'til after the show, but you are still way off. These spoiler sites do the same thing we are doing in this thread; they try to figure out who is going to go using the evidence available. It's really no more a spoiler than our discussion.

[Ferrous]

Well, yes and no, Mahaloth. As I understand it, those sites do more than just discuss likely outcomes based on the episodes and previews. They try to find out what happened based on stuff like post-show comments by the contestants and crew, who hangs with who at the lodge, stuff like that.

Some of us aren't into "being in the know". We just want to watch the shows. It's not a huge deal to me (though it obviously is to some), but I don't think it's an unreasonable request that people with so-called spoiler info label it as such for those of us who'd prefer not to read it.

[Shayna]

What Ferrous and Green Bean said! TENFOLD!

It doesn't matter one lick if you think the spoiler sites aren't accurate, they're still considered spoilers -- hence, the name of them!

It would take a blind person not to even notice the post by Eutychus that's stickied right at the top of this forum, imploring people to be courteous with regard to even potential spoilers (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=152747).

It's not like the spoiler tags are that hard to type!

I should feel safe to read this thread all the way up to 5:00PM PST (which is when the show airs in the Eastern time zone).

Thank you very much.

[Fiver]

The show's on right now, and Matthew just won immunity.

As much of a beating as the guy's been taking in the other players' trash-talk, I can't help feeling good for him. Way to go, Matthew!

So, will it be Alex or Deena? The smart money's on Alex, but I'm hoping Deena gets the boot.

[Fiver]

Ha!

Ha!

[Green Bean]

Originally posted by Mahaloth
I know you aren't reading this 'til after the show, but you are still way off. These spoiler sites do the same thing we are doing in this thread; they try to figure out who is going to go using the evidence available. It's really no more a spoiler than our discussion.
Stuff leaks out. Obviously, the spoiler above came true.

Anyway, excellent show! Excellent. I was happy to see Deena go, because I find her quite abraisive, but it seems to put Christy and Butch in a worse position.

I'm starting to root for Matteo. At this point, I'm pretty sure he's playing dumb--his comments at TC were a little too oblivious.

[Yossarian]

Great show. Will Rob try to run with the popular kids, or will he realize that he's going to be the first to go once (and if) they make it to the final four? Here's hoping he wises up, if just to save the folks I like....

Including Matt, who I warmed up to this ep.

[Little Nemo]

Does anyone else feel the collective intelligence of the cast was reduced by half when Deena left? I just wish there had been a camera taping back at the hotel when Dave asked Deena, "Now do you wish you had allied with me three days ago?"

Favorite moment: Alex laughing when Heidi explained how she was contributing intelligence to the game.

Rob remains a jerk. He's currently reveling in being part of the "cool crowd" and having some uncool kids to ostracize. I wonder if he's done the math and figured out who'll be voted out after Butch, Christy, and Matthew are gone?

[Cholo]

Rob's an idiot. I told my wife...if he's smart (which of course he's not) he'd vote for Alex. If he just wants another shot of the chicks (which he desparately does but will forever be played a fool) he'll vote with the girls.

I knew guys like this.

I hate it because it really screws Matthew and Christy.

[Madawc]

Well, well. Another great episode of Survivor the Amazon if i must say.

Let us all root for murderous Matteo. I think he's playing dumb to man-boobs Rob. To think of it, he knows how to play this game. If I recall earlier in the series, he tried to ally himself but with the minority. He knew he would be the next one out after this fellow allies were dropped early on. His comments on him being totally dumb and that he loves his company with Rob seems off. He knows what he is doing, he knows his situation and rank in the whole camp. He knew he needed to win the IC, so he did. The cameras are making him look like a person being used. But he isn't being used. He's letting this unfold, so that Rob will take the fall for him. He's acting like a soldier, but he has his goals intact.

On the other hand, Christy is being used big time and has NO, i mean absolutely NO clue, about her pathetic game play. She even voted for Alex. Which means she'll be next, unless she plans on winning IC next week. Like I said in another thread, she's being used like cheap one-ply public washroom toilet paper. She is on the chopping block real soon.

Butch, well, I think he'll be used well as a non-factor and can go far with it. But he's an outsider too. IC win not likely either.

Will we see a Rotu like proud aura from the Boobie Twins and Alex and man-boobs? I hope so, then that will force the so-called underdogs to start plotting. (i.e. give Christy a damned wake-up call to this game).

I want to see the "popular" kids go down in shame. Rob will see all the fruits of his plotting blow up in his face. Heidi will get jealous of Jenna for snagging Alex and leaving her with man-boobs, in that foursome. Alex will be on the block for his apparent challenge threat. This will be one of the best Survivors ever.

Massive Spoiler coming..... DO NOT read if you want to enjoy the show. Trust me, it kinda ruined it for me after i read about it.


for those who don't know how to use this function type ["spoiler"] spoiler text in black ["/spoiler"]

without the quotation marks, and add the spoiler text in between.





From RNO, final 2 are J and M, from sources that are quite believable. Gambling sites have been shutting down bettors or so they say on this. and the belief is that M will win it all or so i would hope over J.

[John Mace]

Yeah, this has been good. It's was pretty obvious that Deena would get booted. I'm surprised at the animosity towards Rob. I think he's playing a good game. Has he ever had a vote against him yet? He's kind of a dweeb and he knows it. But he's a pretty smart dweeb. Butch is really hanging in there-- just goes to show how far you can get in this game by being invisiible. And the Deena moral-- how many times do people have to learn: DON'T GET SMUG!!!

[Ferrous]

Originally posted by Pantellerite
Great show. Will Rob try to run with the popular kids, or will he realize that he's going to be the first to go once (and if) they make it to the final four? Here's hoping he wises up, if just to save the folks I like....

Including Matt, who I warmed up to this ep.
That sums up my feelings pretty well.

I am surprised to see Deena go, but it makes sense now. She was smart, but not as smart as she thought. And she greatly overestimated Heidi & Jenna's alleigance to her. I think Rob would have stuck with her, but he was just smart enough to see which way the wind was blowing and jump ship. It should have been obvious to Deena & Rob that Jenna would stick with the cute young guy.

It cracked me up though, when Jenna was delivering her little diatribe against Deena: "She stabbed us all in the back. I'm so incredibly disappointed and shocked, and I will never forgive her for that." Yeah, how dare she? It's like she sees this as some sort of game or something!:rolleyes:

[minty green]

Originally posted by Little Nemo
Does anyone else feel the collective intelligence of the cast was reduced by half when Deena left?Oh yeah. This is the most vapid bunch ever. I'm hoping for Matthew to kill 'em all. Dude be whack.

Incidentally, I completely agree on the spoilers in these SDMB threads, and have always done my best to avoid them. Preview analysis seems fine to me, and I've posted based on it any number of times, but anything based on inside or purported inside information should be out-of bounds.

My pick for next week: Matt if he loses immunity, which I feel confident he will win. Alex if Matt figures out he's number 5 in a 4-person alliance. he's being played. Butch if Matt wins and stays oblivious.

[Smeghead]

A very interesting episode. The game's getting awfully complex all of a sudden. Deena got cocky. Matt still scares me. I don't know what you all are seeing in him that I'm not, but I still think he's oblivious. Rob - well, I like Rob, if for no other reason than he reminds me of me. And frankly I think he's playing the game pretty well. Yeah, he's making alliances that leave him at a disadvantage, but I don't know if there's any alliance he could make that'd put him in a better position.

My new favorite is Butch. He's been getting so little face time that I think he's going to be around for a while. Plus, I think he realizes he's living on borrowed time, and is trying to find a way out of his hole.

[PunditLisa]

Funniest line of the show, from Heidi: "My two biggest assets here are my athletic ability and my intelligence."

Sorry to see Deena go but she's been awfully cocky lately.

I dislike Jenna. She reminds me of a stereotypical sorority bitch. She's completely preoccupied with looks ("They hate us because we're cute." and "Deena is a big,fat cow.") even in the middle of the freaking Amazon. She plays the "sister solidarity" routine when it's convenient but ditches the second it's not working in her favor.

Christy is great. She's flying completely under the radar, which is key in this game. No one thinks she's a threat. And despite the fact that she was wretching on the food challenge, she kept trying and trying. She has something that Jenna and Heidi lack completely and that's character.

I'll be sorry to see Rob go because he's such a geek AND he knows it. He realizes that the big-boobed women are playing the men so he's immune to their charms. He realizes that the other men are a physical threat so he tries to undermine them. And he's funny.

[elf6c]

I want to add additional support to using the damn spoiler tags- remember the "please be considerate with spoilers" sticky?

Now to the game:

Well shut my mouth- it was Denna. So much for "marking my words". . .

What I did not see coming was that her smugness would increase so rapidly. From someone who was quietly working hard at the game and making allies, Denna's true nature finally escaped and it doomed her. Her repeated smug cracks about the men being clueless must not be nearly as funny now in loser lodge. Denna- you could have won it all, but you just couldn't keep your mouth shut.

Rob's head just go alot closer to the block too. His only strong ally is now Matt. Not good. Jenna/Alex/Heidi will boot him when the time comes. What game is Christy playing-- back the loser?

Also, people are giving Matt a tad too much credit as of late, and not nearly enough to Jenna. I was surprised last week with Jenna, and this week confirmed it. The girl is player. The best part is no one sees it.

This has been one of the better Survivor's in a while. Normally we are in the methodical pick-off stage, but this year a favorite for the finals gets picked off early. Nice.

And there is plenty of interesting personalities left. The format changes seemed to have worked- voting does not seem to be by original tribe, new tribe or gender lines. That is all you can ask for.

[Johnny L.A.]

Matt still scares me. I don't know what you all are seeing in him that I'm not
I'm finding myself feeling a little sorry for Matt, for the way the others are talking about him. I mean, they were standing around saying they thought he was going to kill them all! Sure, the machete thing was a bit weird last week; but it seems to me that they base much of their uneasiness on his looks. I remember hearing a story about Andre the Giant. Little children would hide behind their mothers when he approached on the street. He was big ans scary to them. But in reality he loved children and it hurt him that they wer afraid of him. Sad. Matt actually seems like a nice guy. He's scary-looking and a little strange, but he appears to me to actually be a gentle person. If that's true, then it's sad that people are calling him a psychotic and a murderer behind his back.

This week I warmed up to him. From this and previous episodes I knew that the others wanted him off. But the show played up his presumed ouster, which is a fairly reliable sign (although not always) that he would not be picked off. When they showed Deena still being cocky while the others schemed behind her back, I felt reasonably sure that she would be the one to go.

Is Matt "playing the game"? The producers are portraying him as utterly clueless. But then there was the reward challenge. In practice, he looked (if you'll excude the term) lethal. Then he says, "I won't play my best game in the challenge." But when it came to the RC, he bull's-eyed with the darts. Great showing with the bow. He was smart enough to get himself through the first to phases. I suspect he did throw the spear-throw for political reasons. "I know I can win this. Rob sees my performance in the challenge so far. Now he thinks that I am playing to win it. If I miss on the spear-throw -- not by too much, but enough that Rob can win -- then Rob will think that he bested me in the challenge with his own ability and will see me as a slightly lesser threat. It will also get Rob away from people so they can talk behind his back a little."

So maybe he is playing the game. Maybe he's counting on people's uneasiness to keep him around a little bit longer because he'll be an obvious choice to boot off later. (Although they certainly talk about booting him ASAP.)

I'd like to see Christy win because... Well, because she's so darned cute! (And I liked her tongue action in the IC. ;) ) But I wouldn't mind seeing Matt walk away with the million because I think he's been treated so unfairly by the others, what with all the "Psycho!" and "He'll kill us all!" talk.

[Dinsdale]

About all I can say is - has ANYONE ever dominated an eating contest like Matt? Impressive show! I'm still laughing thinking about it. What WON'T that guy eat?!

Could be ugly if the 4 stick tight - and I don't really see any reason why they shouldn't. So next week I see Matt going, unless he gets immunity, in which case it will be Butch.

Hey Butch, you ever been stung by a dead bee?

Rob is really being nasty about Matt. I'm waiting to see how that plays at the reunion show.

[evilhomer]

Originally posted by elf6c
What game is Christy playing-- back the loser?
As long as she isn't too blatant about it, and doesn't seem like an immunity threat, this strategy might not be so bad. If she gets to the final two, she can honestly say to alot of people on the jury that she didn't have anything to do with them being voted out. Now whether this is her strategy, or if she's just really clueless, I don't know. She sure has a sheep-like look yesterday when her, Denna and Rob were talking about booting Alex

I was kind of glad to see Denna go. She was just getting way too cocky. Her overconfidence and obvious "I'm in charge" attitude killed her.

I wonder if Rob is now being considered the guy to bring to the final two. It's kind of hard to tell how badly he's rubbed people the wrong way. Maybe he saves it all for the confessionals, but if not, he's this season's Clay.

I too feel sorry for Matt, especically the way Rob treats him and talks about him. I really hope Matt is playing him, but if he is, he hides it well.

[Munch]

Originally posted by Madawc
Let us all root for murderous Matteo. I think he's playing dumb to man-boobs Rob. To think of it, he knows how to play this game. If I recall earlier in the series, he tried to ally himself but with the minority. He knew he would be the next one out after this fellow allies were dropped early on. His comments on him being totally dumb and that he loves his company with Rob seems off. He knows what he is doing, he knows his situation and rank in the whole camp. He knew he needed to win the IC, so he did. The cameras are making him look like a person being used. But he isn't being used. He's letting this unfold, so that Rob will take the fall for him. He's acting like a soldier, but he has his goals intact.

I disagree. If Matt knew how to play the game, he'd have Christy on his side. She voted for Alex, so she's currently not. I'll reverse my stance if Matt manages to get her and Butch on his side. Regardless, there's no way that Matt will ever get Rob, Alex, Heidi or Jenna to vote with him, so barring sweeping the immunity challenges, he's done for. If he knew how to play the game, this was the week to do it by aligning himself with Deena. He didn't, so he loses.

The only possible way for Matt to win would be to be seen as the weakest possible player, and carried to the final 2. The way the other players have talked, there's no way they'd want to be alone on the "island" with him.

[Judith Prietht]

For someone who claims she brings "athletic ability" to the team, Heidi's performance in the reward challenge was absolutely pathetic. Not that I expected her to have some kind of natural aptitude for spear-throwing and archery, but her spaghetti-arming was pitiful.

I enjoyed seeing things blow up in Rob's face. He's been on my nerves for the last few episodes, and his gobsmacked look at TC made me chuckle. Things are getting interesting.

I always hate the eating challenges, but Christy really impressed me chomping on that mutant grasshopper. I didn't expect Heidi to last that long, either.

[Ring]

It cracked me up though, when Jenna was delivering her little diatribe against Deena: "She stabbed us all in the back. I'm so incredibly disappointed and shocked, and I will never forgive her for that."

I don't get to see this show a lot, but I'm curious as to what Jenna was talking about. How did Deena stab her in the back?

[Munch]

Originally posted by Judith Prietht
I enjoyed seeing things blow up in Rob's face. He's been on my nerves for the last few episodes, and his gobsmacked look at TC made me chuckle.

What gobsmacked look? You mean the feigned suprise he showed? He's done that every single TC he's been at. The fact is, we have no idea how much Rob is or is not in charge. Burnett has done a great job of editing this season, and we currently have no idea which way Rob voted or is aligned.

[Skammer]

I can't see Matt, Butch, or Christy swaying any votes from the other four, so I suspect they will go one by one (M, then C, then B, barring immunity). Which is two bad because I like all three of them.

I'm not so sure Rob will be the first kicked from the remaining alliance. Sticks & Twigs have got to realize that Alex is the bigger immunity threat. If he doesn't win immunity, they've got to get rid of him.

If either of the girls wins final immunity, they'll take the other to the final vote.

[Judith Prietht]

Yeah, that's the one I meant. I've seen his feigned surprise before, but this time I thought it was real. Maybe Rob's just got me wrapped around his finger, but I suppose it's probably my dislike for him that makes me want to see him squirm. During TC I'm also trying to make sure I have a tape cued up to record CSI, so I'm often a little distracted as Jeff's interviewing the tribe. I agree that the editing has been really good this season and in reality who the hell knows what Rob's doing out there.

[elf6c]

Originally posted by Judith Prietht
Yeah, that's the one I meant. I've seen his feigned surprise before, but this time I thought it was real. Maybe Rob's just got me wrapped around his finger, but I suppose it's probably my dislike for him that makes me want to see him squirm. During TC I'm also trying to make sure I have a tape cued up to record CSI, so I'm often a little distracted as Jeff's interviewing the tribe. I agree that the editing has been really good this season and in reality who the hell knows what Rob's doing out there.

But he voted for her too-- how surprised could he have been?

If she gets to the final two, she can honestly say to alot of people on the jury that she didn't have anything to do with them being voted out.

I would be stunned if she makes it to the final 4, never mind the final two.

Also, I think that Jenna may be thinking of bringing Heidi to the final 2, and that her and Heidi have a decent shot at taking out Alex at the last IC. Jenna could be Heidi for the money.

Rob is kind of screwed, Matt is his only strong ally, and his head in on the block. Once Matt is gone, he is by himself. I cannot wait to see him do the loser's walk. Alex may be in a decent position now. Next week is the last chance for a power play, but with Matt's cluelessness I don't see it happening.

Matt - Butch - Christy are the next 3.

Robb gets the boot at 4 baring an immunity issue messing up the order.

Then it comes down to the IC type.

Seeing they already did an endurance event, I wonder they have a different type of IC this Survivor?

[Shayna]

Originally posted by singular1
As much as I hate to say it, all the spoiler sites are poiting to Deena. :mad: Thank you again for making the actual outcome not surprising in the least. :mad:

------------------

Rob would be insane to stick with the Heidi/Jenna/Alex alliance, as he'd be the first one who the other three would vote off. And even if he wins immunity, he'd still be the odd man out the following episode, too, so he'd have to win it twice in a row to stand a snowball's chance in hell of winning this thing. And he'd be have to be dumber than dirt not to see that. Rob's a lot of things -- he may not even be the brightest bulb in the box -- but dumber than dirt, he's not.

On the other hand, he proved this week that he's perfectly willing to switch and/or abandon alliances when he voted against Deena. If he plays it right and aligns himself with Matt, Butch and Christy, they powerplay the other 3 out. He may not ever be able to beat Matt in immunity challenges, but even if it came down to them as the final two, I think he still stands a better chance with the jury. Convincing Butch and Matt to stick with the boys against the girls tack and voting off Christy won't be difficult, either.

So ditching sticks, twigs and stud, and going up against Butch or Matt will be the only way he can possibly win.

I was sorry to see Deena go, but man was she stupid to think Miss Twigs wasn't totally bonding with Mr. Studmuffin over coffee and croissants, or that Heidi wouldn't fill her in right away on the plot to oust her boy toy. Deena deserved the boot for her stupidity alone. Well, that and her arrogance -- she should've eaten that grub. Though she'd've had no way to figure Matt would swallow it alive and whole, so even if she'd've tried she wouldn't have won -- but it was dumb, dumb, dumb to believe she was safe. NEVER believe you're safe in this game!

[handy]

Deena seemed to be the only one not losing weight, I wonder how she did that & Christy needs to change her clothes. That green shirt if getting boring. I think she has a chance to make it pretty far in the game as she doesn't seem too strong.

[Judith Prietht]

OK, now I feel like a total doofus regarding my comments about Rob. I don't know what the hell I was looking at to miss his vote, but I surely did. Thanks for clearing that up, elf6c.

[Johnny L.A.]

In my last post I confused the spear-throwing and arrow-shooting in the RC. Please swap the references. Thank you.

[jsc1953]

No one's mentioned the gambling scandal?

News report (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=797&ncid=799&e=16&u=/eo/20030404/en_tv_eo/11569) earlier this week said that some CBS/Survivor employees were in hot water for betting on the outcome on an Internet gaming site that took Survivor bets. Apparently they bet enough to move the line,


and the odds-on favorites are now Jenna and Matt. Which is looking not unreasonable at the moment.

[Ferrous]

Originally posted by elf6c
Rob is kind of screwed, Matt is his only strong ally, and his head in on the block. Once Matt is gone, he is by himself
I'm not so sure about that. Alex seems to be pretty tight with him too. And Jenna is at least pretending to like him for Alex's sake. (I also agree that Jenna is smarter than she first seemed.) But Alex isn't completely befuddled by the girls like Dave was. It's possible that he'll realize that he has a better chance against Rob in F2 than against either of the girls.

Rob could try to forge an alliance with the outsiders, Matt, Christy and Butch, but I don't think he will, or even necessarily should. He'd be in basically the same position with them if they made it to F4, and then the only one he'd stand a chance against in F2 would be Matt. But then he'd also have Alex, Jenna and Heidi on the jury, who would be likely to vote against him just out of spite for turning on them.

Plus, I think Rob is attracted to power. He wants to be with the in-crowd. He wants to be with the pretty people.
Originally posted by Ring
I don't get to see this show a lot, but I'm curious as to what Jenna was talking about. How did Deena stab her in the back?
Deena tried to convince her cronies that Alex was the biggest threat after Matt. She wanted to vote him off after Matt, or before if Matt won immunity. Perfectly true and sensible (from her POV anyway), but what she failed to take into account was how much Jenna wanted Alex to stay. Jenna believes her best strategy is to make the boys love her so they will keep her around. Alex is her main boy toy. I think she does genuinely like him, but she also sees him as an asset. (I don't think he's as pliable as she thinks, but that's for another day...)

Another nail in Deena's coffin was that she discussed this with Heidi, Rob, and Christy while Alex and Jenna were off bonding at the coffee hut. She asked them not to say anything to Jenna until the time was right. But of course, Heidi is much tighter with Jenna than with Deena, so she spilled the beans immediately upon their return.

Thus, in Jenna-ese, "stabbed us all in the back" translates to "made a strategic decision that would separate me from my sweetheart." So the bitch had to go.

[Munch]

Also not mentioned yet was Alex's comment at the coffee hut about how suprised he was at how much the four of them (Alex, Rob, Heidi and Jenna) have bonded. That suprised me, because we hadn't seen any bonding between Rob and any of the Boobsy Twins. Apparently, they actually do get along.

[elf6c]

Originally posted by Ferrous
I'm not so sure about that. Alex seems to be pretty tight with him too. And Jenna is at least pretending to like him for Alex's sake. (I also agree that Jenna is smarter than she first seemed.) But Alex isn't completely befuddled by the girls like Dave was. It's possible that he'll realize that he has a better chance against Rob in F2 than against either of the girls.



I don't know about that. Alex is pretty popular all around, and seen as a strong player. I think he would beat Jenna or Heidi if it came to a vote. Alex is in no way "fooled" by the girls, and in some ways seems to be playing them with their own game plan. Rob's insistance at being scene as a "nice funny guy", not the pathetic grasping attention whore he actually is will hurt him come vote drive.

I cannot think the "big 3" will want Robb to have any allies- so bye bye Matt (they will say- for Jury voting purposes- that he was "too strong"). Then either Butch or Christy on the block with the other to follow. The only twist is a surprise attack on Rob after Matt is disposed of.

Depends on how far they want to bring Robb along and whether he finally gets caught scheming or making those childish faces of his.

In any event, things are still quite interesting. :)

[Dinsdale]

Matt could conceivably pull a Colby, and run the rest of the ICs.

The final 2 confrontation with the jury should be very entertaining this year.

[BiblioCat]

What happened between Deena and Jenna that made Jenna so amd at her? Why did Jenna keep saying Deena stabbed everyone in the bacK? Was it because Deena was trying to get rid of Jenna's boy-toy Alex?


Yes, I agree that Deena got too smug. She had it coming.
I think Christy may be next. I like her and she is giving it all she's got, but she's a little clueless. She was right in that bug-eating thing, trying hard. Jenna didn't even try with the cricket. When they got the grubs in the bowl, Christy picked the whole bowl up and dumped them in her mouth.

[Madawc]

Don't read unless you know about the gambling scandal.....



Originally posted by Dinsdale
Matt could conceivably pull a Colby, and run the rest of the ICs.

The final 2 confrontation with the jury should be very entertaining this year.

that's my thinking, from that gambling thing

oh jsc1953

i mentioned that gambling thing but it was fully put in the spoiler not to tip off anyone. I think that this scandal kinda ruined my virginity to the contestants. I know have a point of view that either matt is gonna fool them all or he's gonna run all the IC's from now on.

[Fiver]

I just realized something. While everything we're now seeing happened several months ago, the very last Tribal Council will happen live in several weeks' time.

So the jury will have the benefit of having seen all of the last two players' camera confessionals before they vote.

If Rob is in the final two, that won't be good for him.

[Jadis]

Fiver, the last tribal council is held before they leave the island. It's only the reveal of the votes that's put off until live after the series has run on TV. The votes are already cast and counted. :)

[Ukulele Ike]

Thread title emended to connonte presence of spoilers.

-- Uke, Cafe Society moderator

[Fiver]

Oh right, Jadis. I forgot.

[Little Nemo]

I can see Jenna's point. There was a five member alliance of Deena, Jenna, Heidi, Alex, and Rob. There were three people outside of the alliance. Deena then said they should vote out one of the alliance members before voting off a non-member as a second choice if their first choice, Matthew, won immunity. It was a stab in the back, especially when Deena clearly let Matthew win the immunity when the two of them got to the final round. Deena made the mistakes of thinking Rob, Heidi, and Jenna were more loyal to her than to Alex and of telling everyone how they needed to vote off the strong threats when she herself was a strong threat. I think that's the point of one of Dave B's rules: Don't plot just for the sake of plotting. If things are going in your favor, don't change things.

Rob also made a mistake of holding his lecture to everyone. Unless he's playing a very deep game, Matthew trusts Rob completely. But now all it would take is for anyone to go to Matthew and tell him how Rob was bragging about how much he's misleading Matthew, and Matthew chops up Rob with his machete and uses him for bait.

And let me add my personal plea on the spoilers. I know there apparently is some information floating around out there based on insider information and betting odds. I am purposely not reading this because it would spoil the fun of the show for me. So please, if you have information about the betting scandal, think before you post. And that includes quoting other spoiler posts.

[Green Bean]

Originally posted by Ukulele Ike
Thread title emended to connonte presence of spoilers.

-- Uke, Cafe Society moderator
Thanks...But now that the episode has aired, they are no longer spoilers. The only spoilers still in this thread are in proper spoiler boxes.

Oh well. Better late than never. :)

[Smeghead]

OK, after thinking about it, here's what Rob should do. He should set up a REAL alliance with Matt and Butch, then try to get Christie with them. As has been pointed out, Alex and the Boobsie Twins will vote him out into fourth place. Matt and Butch, however, are already used to doing what Rob says and seem to have placed their fates in his hands (which is really stupid, of course). They'd be so grateful to be kept around, let alone made part of the ruling group, that they'd keep Rob around much longer. Rob would be an idiot to throw away two people who will vote as he says. He'd have a much better chance with those two.

[Fiver]

Yeah, that's a good plan for Rob, Smeghead. And it should work, because there's surely no love lost between Christy and the Boobsies.

Speaking of whom, did anyone else notice Heidi misspelled the name on her vote again this week? She voted for "Denna."

[Ferrous]

I don't agree, Smeghead. As I indicated earlier, I don't think switching would give him any particular advantage, and would have one largish disadvantage.

It's true that Matt seems to trust Rob implicitly, which is sad. But Butch is only going along because he knows he has no other choice. His partners are gone, and he's grasping at straws. If he were to suddenly come into power, I'd expect things to change, and he already has a bond with Christy. And Christy also dislikes Matt, and I've seen no signs she's particularly fond of Rob either.

Either way it shakes out, Rob would have to work hard to make the final two. It seems unlikely, but it's not impossible. But in your scenario, he'd have three definite "no" votes on the jury---Alex, Jenna and Heidi, who he would have betrayed.

It's a pretty slim chance for him either way, but I think he should stick with the alliance he's got.
Originally posted by elf6c
I don't know about that.
Well, that makes two of us. :)

Just saying I don't think Rob's situation is as simple as "He's an idiot to stay where he is. He'll be gone number four." Alex could decide to keep him. Heck, as someone said earlier (pardon me for not scrolling up to find out who) the girls might even decide to dump Alex, the greater physical threat. Much as I dislike them personally, the girls do have a pretty good grasp of Survivor strategy.
In any event, things are still quite interesting. :)
Agreed. This one has been pretty unpredictable. I like it!