China: We will not sit by and let Taiwan fall into chaos.

[toadspittle]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=516&ncid=731&e=9&u=/ap/20040326/ap_on_re_as/china_taiwan


"The mainland side will not look on unconcerned should the post-election situation in Taiwan go out of control, leading to social turmoil, endangering lives and property of Taiwan compatriots and affecting stability across the Taiwan straits," Xinhua cited a Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman as saying.


Possibly the scariest thing I've read in a while. I had always wondered how China could possibly make the move to invade Taiwan without seeming totally unjustified. But this line of reasoning, unfortunately, makes it look like they have some legitimate (wholly contrived from any rational perspective, of course) reason to "intervene".

Whaddaya think? Is this the excuse China uses to invade? If not (and you believe that China will one day attempt to forcibly reunify Taiwan), what pretext will they one day use?

[SentientMeat]

I had always wondered how China could possibly make the move to invade Taiwan without seeming totally unjustified. But this line of reasoning, unfortunately, makes it look like they have some legitimate (wholly contrived from any rational perspective, of course) reason to "intervene".Gosh, that sounds eerily familiar.

Can we all agree that might does not make right, and that invasions should be moderated by the UN Security Council? (Preferably without the dreaded veto, IMHO).

[Aeschines]

Despite recent rhetoric on the part of Taiwan, both sides have recognized that there is one China that was in a sort of schism. In fact, you will see Tawain referred to by the Taiwanese as being Repubic of China, Taiwan State, with that "state" being the same character used for every province of mainland China.

In the past, both the Communist Party and Guomingdang claimed to be the leadership, and for awhile different countries recognized either as so (the US at first recognized Shang Kai-Shek's government as being the leadership of ALL of China).

And before we get all gooey about Taiwan being the land of freedom and the mainland being Commie, keep in mind that Taiwan was run as a dictatorship from the end of WWII until very recently.

My opinion is that there should be no violence in the reunification process, but reunification is inevitable. This can be understood if you understand China's history, and the average mainland Chinese person takes the reunification issue very seriously (and you will NEVER meet a Chinese person who thinks it would fine if Taiwan split off for good).

[Tokyo_Mann]

Despite recent rhetoric on the part of Taiwan, both sides have recognized that there is one China that was in a sort of schism.

While this was the case, the native Taiwanese are getting tired of the status quo. I don't see reunification as inevitable.

[toadspittle]

Gosh, that sounds eerily familiar.

Can we all agree that might does not make right, and that invasions should be moderated by the UN Security Council? (Preferably without the dreaded veto, IMHO).

Well, WE on the SDMB can agree to that. I don't know that the govt. of mainland China (or certain other unnamed countries I happen to be living in) can.

[Brandus]

the average mainland Chinese person takes the reunification issue very seriously (and you will NEVER meet a Chinese person who thinks it would fine if Taiwan split off for good).

Are you sure that's an accurate statement? On March 17, 2004, the Social Survey Institute of china surveyed 2,150 chinese for their opinion on the referendum taiwain was holding on whether or not to build up their defenses or to hold peace talks with china, 20% said they weren't interested, and 5.6% said they were tolerant of Taiwan's independance. Extrapolated, that's like 260 million people who dont' care, and 72 million who think it'd be a-ok. Taken with other various sources, it would seem the average chinese citizen is apathetic of the taiwan issue.

[Aeschines]

Are you sure that's an accurate statement? On March 17, 2004, the Social Survey Institute of china surveyed 2,150 chinese for their opinion on the referendum taiwain was holding on whether or not to build up their defenses or to hold peace talks with china, 20% said they weren't interested, and 5.6% said they were tolerant of Taiwan's independance. Extrapolated, that's like 260 million people who dont' care, and 72 million who think it'd be a-ok. Taken with other various sources, it would seem the average chinese citizen is apathetic of the taiwan issue.Yes, this is nice info. Based on my experience of meeting educated Chinese people, however, they felt that reunification should occur. I would have to see the original questions in Chinese, etc., to get a better idea of what those questions meant to people.

[Milum]

You all must be kidding?

listen you two posters who give credence to polls taken in Communist China....hey you two , come over here; listen, I've got a lease arrangement on the Brooklyn Bridge.

listen closely goodbuddies , we can make millions....

[sailor]

You all must be kidding?

listen you two posters who give credence to polls taken in Communist China....hey you two , come over here; listen, I've got a lease arrangement on the Brooklyn Bridge.

listen closely goodbuddies , we can make millions....Milum, you are showing your ignorance. I have spent quite some time in china and have good friends there and can guarantee the Chinese people do feel very strongly about Taiwan. When this issues has been discussed before in other threads all posters with personal experience in China confirmed that. Go to *any* Chinese board and you will see what I mean. Even Chinese abroad feel strongly about the issue. What do *you* have to offer to contradict that? Just that you don't like the fact?

[China Guy]

It's a rare day when I meet anyone in China that is apathetic or neutral to the issue of Taiwan reunification. It's much more an indoctrination or faith based thing like your grandmother knowing that you catch colds from drafts.

Taiwan only recently (past 15 years or so) gave up the claim/fiction that they were the rightful government of all of China (and Mongolia) and would someday return to rule the mainland. Chiang Ching Kuo's passing ended that whole era.

IMHO, politics aside, economic reunification will drive a political reunification of some sort. I personally think it will happen in 5 but certainly within 10 years. There are already somewhere around 1-2 million Taiwanese living and doing business in China. That's between 5-10% of their entire population.

back to the OP, you're guaranteed that the Taiwan Affairs Commission will say something along those lines. It's their sole reason for existance. Western press is always happy to pull out some headline from the third assistant to the maid of some party functionary with zero power or prospects. Keep in mind that relations are lightyears ahead of where they were back in 1996 (less than a decade ago), when China conducted live missle tests in Taiwanese shipping lanes ahead of that first democratic presidential election.

[Milum]

Then Sailor hurt my feelings by saying...
Milum, you are showing your ignorance. I have spent quite some time in china and have good friends there and can guarantee the Chinese people do feel very strongly about Taiwan. When this issues has been discussed before in other threads all posters with personal experience in China confirmed that. Go to *any* Chinese board and you will see what I mean. Even Chinese abroad feel strongly about the issue. What do *you* have to offer to contradict that? Just that you don't like the fact?

Hey Sailor, now here's a happy thought. We can settle this question about the accuracy of polls taken in mainland China like civilized gentlemen...

First we go to Tiananmen Square in Beijing. Then you put on a sandwich board that reads
HANDS OFF TAIWAN on one side, and HONK YOUR BYCYCLE HORN IF YOU WANT TO OUST OUR COMMIE GOVERNMENT on the other side,
and march about.

If after five minutes you are still marching about, I'll concede that the chinese people are allowed free speech by their commie government and that their polls are merely as unrepresentive of reality as ours are in the west.

Fair enough? :)

[sailor]

I am sure Milum will be back shortly to explain in very convincing terms that a communist regime would never indoctrinate their citizens by controlling the media and that, even if they tried, it would not work. :rolleyes:

I have found it is best to be very careful with this topic in China and it is best avoided because there is no quicker way for a meeting to turn sour. I have found young men tend to be the most ardent in their patriotic fervor.

In one of my visits to China I was discussing with my Chinese friend the topic of the adamant-bellicose attitude of the Chinese people with regards to Taiwan and she said something which I found insightful. She said "The people who advocate taking Taiwan by force mostly believe it is going to be an easy and glorious feat and after that life will go on the same as before but even better now that Taiwan is back where it belongs. They do not think it may lead to a bloody war which could claim millions of lives, they do not think it could lead to a messy war which could last years, they do not think that the Chinese economy could go down the hole as foreign sanctions take their tool, they only see the glory and heroism. And if China would go to war based on these premises then it would never turn back no matter the cost because that would be losing face."

Many, if not most, wars are started with the blind belief of a relatively easy victory which will lead to a victorious peace and glory for the homeland but when those calculations turn out to be wrong and based only on wishful thinking then it is too late to turn back. Even if the side which starts the war is not totally defeated, the gains are ususally not worth the cost and the war would not have been started had the outcome been known. There are many examples but the occupation of Iraq is the most recent. It was not long ago that we were hearing all that wishful thinking about the "Iraqis welcoming the Americans with open arms" and how democracy in Iraq would bring peace to the region. Nationalistic governments end up believing their own nationalistic bullshit and China is no different. Let's hope the status quo can be maintained and nothing triggers the aggression which would be a disaster for everybody. China would not be a winner even if it could easily take Taiwan, which is not the case.

I once entered a travel agency in DC and got talking to the young Chinese-American man there. He told me he was born in China but moved to the USA at age two so he had grown up in the USA. We had some pleasant exchanges about China and I assumed he would have a more western view of things so I brought up the topic of Taiwan only to find out he was just as adamant as if he were living in China. Taiwan is part of China and that is all there is to it. I pointed out the cost in lives and to the economy if China would attempt to take Taiwan but his response was that the country is worth that and more and the Chinese people would gladly pay the price in terms of lives and money. he was very proud of being Chinese and of how his country was developing so fast and would soon be a major power. OOh boy, i should have been more circumspect and not assume he would have an American POV. IMHO, politics aside, economic reunification will drive a political reunification of some sort. I personally think it will happen in 5 but certainly within 10 years. There are already somewhere around 1-2 million Taiwanese living and doing business in China. That's between 5-10% of their entire population. I agree that the economic ties between the two are very strong and growing stronger but they are best served by the status quo and I do not see any way in the world that political reunification will happen in 10 years, much less 5 years. No way. The best we can hope for is the maintenance of the status quo and a *very* slow and gradual approximation over several decades. A lot would have to change in both China and in Taiwan to make reunification possible in less than a decade. I believe the only possible way is a much slower mutual opening up.

China was showing Hong Kong as an example of the "one country-two systems" and using it as an argument for Taiwan to join based on that premise or even "one country-three systems" but Taiwan was not convinced. Events in HKG are showing serious strains in that system and there is no way Taiwan would subject itself to something similar. Beijing has made it clear that "one country" comes before "two systems" and has pretty much made it clear that they have the last word in everything. Tung Chee Hwa is as unpopular as ever but Beijing who backs him is not about to allow for free elections. Taiwan is taking notes and I see no way they would willingly subject themselves to the rule of Beijing when Beijing is acting like that in HKG.

[sailor]

Then Sailor hurt my feelings by saying...


Hey Sailor, now here's a happy thought. We can settle this question about the accuracy of polls taken in mainland China like civilized gentlemen...

First we go to Tiananmen Square in Beijing. Then you put on a sandwich board that reads
HANDS OFF TAIWAN on one side, and HONK YOUR BYCYCLE HORN IF YOU WANT TO OUST OUR COMMIE GOVERNMENT on the other side,
and march about.

If after five minutes you are still marching about, I'll concede that the chinese people are allowed free speech by their commie government and that their polls are merely as unrepresentive of reality as ours are in the west.

Fair enough? :) And how would that prove what we are discussing? Don't be ridiculous. There are plenty of people here who live in China or who have spent long periods in China and they are telling you that you are wrong. What is *your* basis for your assertions? You have shown NONE.

I have recently returned from two months in China and this is my seventh such visit. I have travelled and stayed in my friend's homes and talked about this with them. I have many Chinese friends in China and outside. I read the reports from western media. Chinaguy lives in China and his wife is Chinese. All the evidence I see supports what I am saying.

Now, please tell us on what basis you deny it. What is your evidence. Please provide some support for your assertion.

[Aeschines]

Milum,

You're a fine fellow, I'm sure, but your comments here just seem pulled from a body cavity I dare not mention.

The poll figures, if anything, support the notion that a large chunk of the mainland Chinese population is indifferent to, or actually in favor of, independance for Taiwan. That is, these same figures that you are dismissing would seem to support, to a slight degree, the case that YOU appear to be making.

We others here disagree that mainland Chinese in any siginifcant proportion are indifferent or supportive of such independence. In any event, you are not making sense.

[Milum]

Watch it Sailor!

It causes me misstep when you post a rational and informative post outside of the standard liberal spiel.

'Well said" I say grudgingly, but I await your return to routine.

[Brandus]

I have a question for those familiar with China. For a long time, I've suspected that Taiwan was the main driving force for china to develop militarily. Does China have any military goals other than taiwan? If Taiwain were reuinified with the main land, would that take the wind out of the sails of the autocratic government? If there wasn't a superpower guarding their breakaway province, would china be more likely to grow as a benign power?

[Milum]

Geez! Sailor reverted back to his dogmas before I could get my rare complementry post in. Wow! That is faster than the Superman changing back into the dull, but dutiful, Clark Kent


But Aeschines, in an arguing mood, accused me of not comprehending the significance of polls taken in Communist China, by saying...

The poll figures, if anything, support the notion that a large chunk of the mainland Chinese population is indifferent to, or actually in favor of, independance for Taiwan. That is, these same figures that you are dismissing would seem to support, to a slight degree, the case that YOU appear to be making.

What? But Aeschimes, in the last national election in China, the Communist Party got 99.9998% of the people's vote.

That's kinda a poll, isn't it?

[sailor]

Milum, please answer the questions being put to you because you just look foolish playing your silly little games. I could also say that if I were to go in front of the White House with a banner advocating the killing of president Bush I would not last more than a few minutes before the Secret Service took me away for questioning. Therefore this conclusively proves the American people overwhelmingly want Bush killed but are afraid to say so. It is just as stupid as what you are saying.

You have said the Chinese people do not feel strongly about Taiwan but you offer no proof or support in spite of the evidence contradicting you. This is GD and you are expected to support your affirmations if they are questioned. If you cannot do that I would ask you to STFU and let others who know what they are talking about have their say. Every time you post you just make patent your ignorance on the subject being discussed. Please inform yourself minimally before posting.

Further, if you say the chinese people do not feel strongly about Taiwan, are you denying the Chinese government has made this an important issue in their propaganda and teaching? Or are you saying they did it but it did not work? Please explain and support your opinions with evidence.

Just this year I have spent two months in China. During this visit I took more than 500 photos and have made 20 web pages already (and counting) with plenty of text and pictures about life in China. And that is just this year. Other posters in this board have also solid credentials to support their opinions.

Milum, please tell us on what basis you have formed your opinions on this topic. What are the sources of your knowledge? How much time have you spent in China? What parts? You have business or personal relations there? Do you closely follow the news about China comming from Chinese and foreign media? Which sources? This would be helpful in supporting your claim which goes against what the rest of us seem to perceive. It contradicts what western media says. It is an extraordinary assertion and requires proof. Please provide it.

[Aeschines]

Sorry, Milum, still incomprehensible.

[furt]

What are the odds of me and China Guy showing up here, eh?

Despite recent rhetoric on the part of Taiwan, both sides have recognized that there is one China that was in a sort of schism. In fact, you will see Tawain referred to by the Taiwanese as being Repubic of China, Taiwan State, with that "state" being the same character used for every province of mainland China.
You're putting way too much stock in surfaces. Some Taiwanese agree that Taiwan is part of China. Most are far more ambivalent. There are two major camps in Taiwanese Politics: the "Blue" led by the KMT which clearly says that Taiwan should remain part of China, but remains artfully vague about how and when any reunification should occur, and the "Green" led by the DPP who, it is universally understood, favor independance, but remain artfully vague about how and when independance should occur.

The Blues have more money, and they were firmly in power up until the last decade or so. But the Greens have won the last two elections (admittedly, by very close margins), and more importantly, all the demograpic trends are in their favor. To put it in very broad terms: the power base of the Blues are the old men who came over in 1947; the Greens are their grandchildren, as well as the native Taiwanese.

"In the most recent poll, in June last year, the portion of people saying they are Taiwanese had jumped to 41.5%, while those identifying themselves as Chinese fell to 9.9%. The number who said both dropped slightly, to 43.8%."

http://www.taiwandc.org/feer-2004-02.htm

The article is an excellent overview. Here's another:

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/as...0165540,00.html


And before we get all gooey about Taiwan being the land of freedom and the mainland being Commie, keep in mind that Taiwan was run as a dictatorship from the end of WWII until very recently.So when does it become a "real" democracy in your eyes? Ten years aren't enough? Will twenty be? The old autocrats are exactly the ones who favor closer ties with China.


As to the OP: The Chinese government and their people are both very serious about reunification and would do so by force if they could; but for now their options are limited. We had a thread on this recently but I can't find it.

Long story short, a large scale amphibious invasion of a country of 20 million people requires a LOT of transport capacity, and that in turn requires naval and air superiority. The Taiwanese can probably deny them both. The Chinese can have ten Quadrillion guys with rifles, but it doesn't matter if their ships keep getting sunk.

More:

http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/pdf/isec_25_02_51_0.pdf

[sailor]

Aeschines, in an arguing mood, accused me of not comprehending the significance of polls taken in Communist China, by saying... My goodness, Milum, just give iit up already! This thread is not about the validity of that poll! It is about China's attitude towards Taiwan and how the situation might develop in the future. You seem to have absolutely nothing to offer on that topic except to pick on the silly side issue of questioning the reliability of a poll which is not central to the thread or the topic being discussed. You have nothing to contribute to the thread but a childish attempt to derail it and turn it into an anti-China manifest. Just give it up already or we may have to take this issue to the Pit so the thread con continue without your interference.

[Milum]

Ok Sailor, now you've done it.

You by your authoritarian assertions that demand cited documentation for the most basic ideas and thoughts that are everywhere fundamental to any worthwhile discussion of the relative value of major world events, force me to ask you these embarrassing questions...

Do you think that your time spent paling around with your chinese buddies has somehow enabled you to transcend conventional thinking about the nature of chinese communism?

Are the chinese people free today?

How much sway does public opinion have within the hierarchies of China?

Do you still think that communism can be a viable form of government in China?

Why do you not wish the good life on the chinese people?

[sailor]

Milum, please stop wasting our time. You have not answered any of the questions put to you directly related to this thread and I am not going to waste time answering questions which are totally unrelated.

You're putting way too much stock in surfaces. Some Taiwanese agree that Taiwan is part of China. Most are far more ambivalent. There are two major camps in Taiwanese Politics: the "Blue" led by the KMT which clearly says that Taiwan should remain part of China, but remains artfully vague about how and when any reunification should occur, and the "Green" led by the DPP who, it is universally understood, favor independance, but remain artfully vague about how and when independance should occur.
. . .
As to the OP: The Chinese government and their people are both very serious about reunification and would do so by force if they could; but for now their options are limited. I agree with these assessments. So when does it become a "real" democracy in your eyes? Ten years aren't enough? Will twenty be? I think Aeschines's point is that it is not an issue where one side is 100% good and the other 100% bad. Taiwan has somewhat more political freedom but it is relatively recent and showing some problems now. OTOH China is fast moving in that direction too. It is not a matter of what side is right and which side is wrong but a matter of how can the issue be resolved and what might lead to problems. Instability in Taiwan is not a good thing as it might give China an excuse to intervene.

[El_Kabong]

OK, I'm just wandering by, don't know all the nuances of the China-Taiwan debate, just reading the thread, some interesting discussion...then I get to Milum's ludicrous contributions.

Milum, please, listen to someone who has no axe to grind here either way. You have contributed nothing of substance so far and IMO you are making a complete fool of yourself. This thread is not a referendum on the legitimacy of the mainland Chinese government and we all get that you think 'liberals', however you define them, are your mortal enemy. Your repeated attempts to hijack this thread into a discussion of your personal obsessions are, frankly, pathetic. If you want to discuss your obsessions, go for it, but I suggest a new thread would be a more appropriate place.

[sailor]

I would like to hear opinions of those familiar with the issue about the following points:

I would like to know if anyone else believes that political reunification is inevitable or even likely in the next 5 - 10 years because this goes against everything I see.

I believe maintaining the status quo is the best and only option for now. China deciding to attack would lead to a disaster and Taiwan declaring independence qould automatically trigger the attack. Better leave things as they are. The perfect is the enemy of the good. But the status quo means stability in Taiwan and chaos in Taiwan is very dangerous.

I think we agree China would use force at the flimsiest excuse if it could but right now it does not have the military capability. This can change over the next few years due to a number of factors. China's industry is developing incredibly fast and its shipbuilding capability will soon exceed that of Korea and Japan (if it has not done so already). If things continue to develop at the present rate I think there is no question that in 10 - 20 years China will have some serious military capability. If a situation were to develop in Taiwan which would serve as an excuse for "intervention" and the USA were tied up somewhere else (like Iraq now) I think it is very likely China would take the gamble.

I also think what happens in Hong Kong is crucial to what happens in Taiwan and so far China has been holding HKG on a very short leash. I believe Taiwan takes notes and this works against reunification. Beijing has made it clear that they are the last authority over HKG and will not allow democracy if it means HKG will challenge Beijing. "One country comes before two systems." There is no way Taiwan would accept this.

[rngadam]

My wife is Taiwanese while my father is from HK, so I think I have some insights in this.

First, native Taiwanese are much more pro-Taiwan then before. They regret that a Chinese mainlander such as CKS was the bonehead dictator that pushed the country where it is now: out of any international organizations, unrecognized except by a few 3rd-class countries with thousands massacred or imprisoned during his regime. A regime BTW supported by the US which turned a blind eye on it's less savory aspects in the name of commie-fighting...

In any case, both pro-Taiwan and pro-reunification camp are proud of the fact that they are now democratic. Rationally, joining forces with China makes sense but not until China itself is democratic (which should happen within a generation if the US doesn't mess it up). It is not that Taiwanese don't want to be part of China, it is that Taiwanese don't want to be under a communist government which is the mirror image of the dictatorship they lived under for so long.

As for China attacking Taiwan... Well, it would be the stupidest thing to do, but China has done stupid things before. After all, in the 50's they tried to invade Taiwan and 50k Taiwanese died repelling them . Any attempt by China to set foot on Taiwan now will lead to a long and bloody war.

If the current leadership, can keep control on the military all is well, The Chinese government will move slowly but surely turning more and more pro-economy and pro-democracy as the grey heads of the party die out. However, the smallest slip until then and China will have to make good on it's aggressive talks so as not to lose face. That is where the danger lies. Any attempts at cornering them on this issue will result in a backlash.

It is very important to note that Taiwan is a very strategic island against China that can easily give or take away access to the Pacific.

[furt]

I would like to know if anyone else believes that political reunification is inevitable or even likely in the next 5 - 10 years because this goes against everything I see.No way. 20, 30, maybe.

I believe maintaining the status quo is the best and only option for now.Agreed.

If a situation were to develop in Taiwan which would serve as an excuse for "intervention" and the USA were tied up somewhere else (like Iraq now) I think it is very likely China would take the gamble.Would depend on the specifics, and which leaders in China, but maybe. I'd say "possible"; not sure about "probable." The truth is, IMO, not having Taiwan is a useful rallying point for the CCP (it's like politicians who don't want to fix a certain problem because they can blame the other party for it) as it deflects internal dissent.

I also think what happens in Hong Kong is crucial to what happens in Taiwan and so far China has been holding HKG on a very short leash.True. There is a fundamental contradiction in "one China, two systems," and HK proves it.

China would have a chance at reunification if they would treat Taiwan as a bride to be wooed instead of a child to be scolded or a prize to be captured. I don't think the CCP will ever realize that.

It is very important to note that Taiwan is a very strategic island against China that can easily give or take away access to the Pacific.Taiwan's gonna blockade the entire Chinese coast? Absurd. Their navy isn't nearly big enough, and if they tried, Taipei would be leveled.

[rngadam]

Taiwan's gonna blockade the entire Chinese coast? Absurd. Their navy isn't nearly big enough, and if they tried, Taipei would be leveled.

Who said anything about Taiwan doing the blockading alone?

Look at a map:

http://www.sel.barc.usda.gov/scalenet/images/asia.gif

Russia to the North, Japan, South Korea, Okinawa to the East and the Philippines to the south. Taiwan is the only straight line to the Pacific... I'm sure that China would be extra happy to be able to station it's fleet in Taiwan. Of course, the US too, if relations with China turn sour... Tell me, if it came to a war between China and the rest of it's neighbors, how effective it's fleet would be without Taiwan?

[furt]

Who said anything about Taiwan doing the blockading alone?Who's going to help? If you want to try to posit some scenario where it's China v. the world, well yes, China would lose. But that isn't what this thread is about and it's highly implausible.

Russia to the North, Japan, South Korea, Okinawa to the East and the Philippines to the south. Taiwan is the only straight line to the Pacific.You are wildly optimistic in assessing Taiwan's ability to project power over distance. Their navy is purely defensive in its design. They do not have the capacity to do more than assign one or two frigates to each Chinese port. That's not even close to enough. The truth of the matter is that China is far more likely to blockade Taiwan.

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ship/row/rocn/
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ship/row/plan/

As far as shipping, from Hong Kong it's straight south and turn left after the Phillipines. Leaving Shanghai, head due east and stay above 30 north. At all points along the way, ships would be closer to PRC air cover than to ROC attackers. Problem solved.

Tell me, if it came to a war between China and the rest of it's neighbors, how effective it's fleet would be without Taiwan?
Korea: Taiwan would be irrelvant.
Japan: Taiwan would be irrelevant
Phillipines: Having Taiwan might help, but Hainan Island and Guangdong are just as close. Why in Og's name China would be wanting to invade the Phillipines, I've no idea. They fight over the Spratleys, but again, those are as close to Guangdong as Taiwan.
All other neighbors:Land borders. Taiwan would be irrelvant.


I'm not trying to slam you dude. I agreed with most of what you said earlier. But on this, you're completely wrong. Taiwan's strategic importance is in its industry, not its location.

[China Guy]

I have a question for those familiar with China. For a long time, I've suspected that Taiwan was the main driving force for china to develop militarily. Does China have any military goals other than taiwan? If Taiwain were reuinified with the main land, would that take the wind out of the sails of the autocratic government? If there wasn't a superpower guarding their breakaway province, would china be more likely to grow as a benign power?China long felt itself under threat. The US intervention over Taiwan and the Korean war, the Soviet-Sino split, border wars with Russia/Viet Nam/India, etc. China is also trying to lay regional claims regarding oilfields from north Asia down to Indonesia. So, if Taiwan is a driver, it's one of many. You don't see a massive push to build an invasion fleet or anything like that. Heck, China's navy is quite weak.

[China Guy]

Maybe I was unclear. I'm saying that economic integration will drive some sort of political settlement. And that will happen in 5-10 years, with me willing to put money on it being sooner rather than later. Direct trade and travel links will come over the next couple of years, and possibly sooner. The number of Taiwanese coming to China for their careers is significant. The number of Taiwanese companies that have moved their production to China has hollowed out most Taiwan industry (I don't have a handy cite but anyone interested can google and find plenty).

The status quo of not declaring de jeure indepence, and PRC blocking Taiwan from international bodies will change sooner rather than endure until China becomes democratic. IMHO it is simplistic in the extreme to say that Taiwan and China will reunify after democracy takes root in China. Look at the EU, where there is still individual national sovereignity, as one possible example. I'll repeat, there will be some sort of economic integration soon, and that will cause significant political changes in the status quo. I make no prediction on what that's going to look like, only that it will be significantly different.

As for military action, I've said this before and it's worth repeating. Taiwan has the capability to create nuclear weapons. (High tech manufacturing, 6 or more nuclear power plants, a very high number of PhD's, a meglomanic dictator in Chiang Kai-shek). With a GIANT belligerent neighbor, it would be naive to think Chiang Kai-shek did not put together some nukes and then threatened Beijing with retailiation in the event of an invasion. Of course it is a MAD strategy as the surviving Chinese military would then leave Taiwan as radioactive dust. It doesn't exactly make me happy to think I probably live in the number 1 or number 2 target city. Nukes make the whole invasion scenario moot.

[frank zafka]

Maybe I was unclear. I'm saying that economic integration will drive some sort of political settlement. And that will happen in 5-10 years, with me willing to put money on it being sooner rather than later. Direct trade and travel links will come over the next couple of years, and possibly sooner. The number of Taiwanese coming to China for their careers is significant. The number of Taiwanese companies that have moved their production to China has hollowed out most Taiwan industry (I don't have a handy cite but anyone interested can google and find plenty).

The status quo of not declaring de jeure indepence, and PRC blocking Taiwan from international bodies will change sooner rather than endure until China becomes democratic. IMHO it is simplistic in the extreme to say that Taiwan and China will reunify after democracy takes root in China. Look at the EU, where there is still individual national sovereignity, as one possible example. I'll repeat, there will be some sort of economic integration soon, and that will cause significant political changes in the status quo. I make no prediction on what that's going to look like, only that it will be significantly different.

As for military action, I've said this before and it's worth repeating. Taiwan has the capability to create nuclear weapons. (High tech manufacturing, 6 or more nuclear power plants, a very high number of PhD's, a meglomanic dictator in Chiang Kai-shek). With a GIANT belligerent neighbor, it would be naive to think Chiang Kai-shek did not put together some nukes and then threatened Beijing with retailiation in the event of an invasion. Of course it is a MAD strategy as the surviving Chinese military would then leave Taiwan as radioactive dust. It doesn't exactly make me happy to think I probably live in the number 1 or number 2 target city. Nukes make the whole invasion scenario moot.

I think one important aspect concerning the number of Taiwanese living/working/studying in China has been overlooked. A very large percentage of these Taiwanese live very segregated lives from the Mainlanders. They thrive in tiny little Taibei's, which have a very distinct feeling from other areas. This is a subtle, but very important point--i.e. the vast majority of Taiwanese have a separate identity from the Mainland and have very little compuction or desire to deny themselves this unique identity. I have yet to meet a substantial number of Taiwanese who identify themselves as Chinese. In my experience the Taiwanese act, think, dress, and speak as different from the mainland as the Chinese disapora that can be found elsewhere in Asia.
My prediction: no unification based on economic ties as there is very little for the mainland to offer above and beyond this. If the business conditions in the Mainland soured tomorrow, the Taiwanese would have no compunction about picking up and investing in say Thailand.
As for the "Da Lu'ers" being blindly fanatic about the Taiwan issue--I agree. The Chinese government has painted itself into such a corner concerning reunification that there is very little room for compromise. Beijing has stated previously that it has hinged its very legitimacy on this very issue. Hopefully, the economic costs associated with any cross-strait adventures will triumph blind nationalism.

[Apos]

This can be understood if you understand China's history,

And oh boy, what a proud history that is.

Frankly, this is one of the absolute ugliest sides of China's history and people. And I hope it's one that fades, not grows, as time goes on. Unfortunately, hard core, psychologically tailored indoctrination begins from day one, and threats of detainment for dissent last for life.

Taiwan was only ever briefly a part of China.

and the average mainland Chinese person takes the reunification issue very seriously (and you will NEVER meet a Chinese person who thinks it would fine if Taiwan split off for good).

Sure, they'd be thrown in prison if they announced support for it.

[sailor]

I think one important aspect concerning the number of Taiwanese living/working/studying in China has been overlooked. A very large percentage of these Taiwanese live very segregated lives from the Mainlanders. They thrive in tiny little Taibei's, which have a very distinct feeling from other areas. This is a subtle, but very important point--i.e. the vast majority of Taiwanese have a separate identity from the Mainland and have very little compuction or desire to deny themselves this unique identity. I have yet to meet a substantial number of Taiwanese who identify themselves as Chinese. In my experience the Taiwanese act, think, dress, and speak as different from the mainland as the Chinese disapora that can be found elsewhere in Asia. Well, that separate identity works in their favor as they have the image of being richer and more powerful. I have read there are very large numbers of Taiwanese businessmen who spend enough time on the mainland to have revived the custom of the second wife / concubine. A middle manager in Taiwan with an average salary is a rich man in China and he would want to cultivate that image. My prediction: no unification based on economic ties as there is very little for the mainland to offer above and beyond this. If the business conditions in the Mainland soured tomorrow, the Taiwanese would have no compunction about picking up and investing in say Thailand. I do not think the process will be quick but the ties are there and growing and they represent the best hope that the issue will not turn violent. As for the "Da Lu'ers" being blindly fanatic about the Taiwan issue--I agree. The Chinese government has painted itself into such a corner concerning reunification that there is very little room for compromise. Beijing has stated previously that it has hinged its very legitimacy on this very issue. Hopefully, the economic costs associated with any cross-strait adventures will triumph blind nationalism. Yes, it is often the case that country leaders use nationalism as a tool and then it becomes uncontrollable and the only escape is forward. Argentina and the Falklands come to mind. I am reminded of what Churchill said about Hitler and Mussolini: "They are riding tigers they dare not dismount". Once you excite nationalistic fervor it can be very tricky to turn around and not be devoured by the masses yourself.

[sailor]

Sure, they'd be thrown in prison if they announced support for it.This is just nonsense. The Chinese people may not have the freedom to publish freely in the media but to believe they live in constant fear of the police knocing on their door for expressing some political thought is just ludicrous and shows a stereotype which is no less propaganda.

Anyone who has spent any time in China knows once you know people they will talk freely about their views and they are not afraid the police will come knocking. The notion that they support the notion of one China just because they are afraid to say anything else is ludicrous and shows deep ignornce of what China is like today.

I suppose there are times of chaos and revolution when people are afraid to speak up even in private but there is no country in the world with a stable economy and relative order where people live scared for their lives. It just doesn't happen and the notion that it does is just plain silly.

The notion that all the Chinese people live in constant fear of their government is just silly. People in china live no more afraid than people in any other country. As long as they refrain from very public expressions against the government I have not seen anyone who was afraid to tell me what they thought. And the fact is they feel strongly about Taiwan.

[BrainGlutton]

First, native Taiwanese are much more pro-Taiwan then before.

By "native Taiwanese," do you mean all people born in Taiwan; or the non-Chinese aborigines; or Han-Chinese whose ancestors were living in Taiwan before the Kuomintang fled across the sea?

From the Encarta:

Most people in Taiwan are ethnic Han Chinese and were born on the mainland or have ancestors that were. They are divided into three groups based on their native Chinese dialect: Taiwanese (who speak Taiwanese, also called Min), Hakka (who speak Hakka, also called Kejia), and Mandarin. Min, Hakka, and Mandarin all belong to the Sino-Tibetan languages family. Taiwan also has a small population of aborigines who comprise about 2 percent of the total population. There are nine major aborigine tribes, each speaking a different form of Formosan, a member of the Austronesian languages family. Mandarin Chinese is Taiwan’s official language.

[China Guy]

I think one important aspect concerning the number of Taiwanese living/working/studying in China has been overlooked. A very large percentage of these Taiwanese live very segregated lives from the Mainlanders. They thrive in tiny little Taibei's, which have a very distinct feeling from other areas. This is a subtle, but very important point--i.e. the vast majority of Taiwanese have a separate identity from the Mainland and have very little compuction or desire to deny themselves this unique identity. I have yet to meet a substantial number of Taiwanese who identify themselves as Chinese. In my experience the Taiwanese act, think, dress, and speak as different from the mainland as the Chinese disapora that can be found elsewhere in Asia.
There is some truth in what you say, but I think you're talking about a relatively small minority rather than the majority. The Taiwanese in China are largely integrated. Do they go native? No. The Taiwanese live like most of the non PRC natives - that is, live in nicer areas, send kids to either local schools or to Taiwanese/overseas Chinese schools, etc. They don't live in isolated enclaves. No differnet from myself.

I know quite a few Taiwanese, and rented my condo to 3 of them last year.

Those who speak Meinanhua tend to stick with other Meinanhua speakers. Not at all unusual to see a Taiwanese, Singaporean, Malaysian and Mainlander from Fujian hanging out together.

The days have long since passed when you could identify a Hong Kongese, Taiwanese, Overseas Chinese by their dress and language. It was true in the 1980's but certainly not now.

In my experience and awful lot of people in Taiwan identify themselves as culturally Chinese. Very few identify as Chinese as we should all be one political entity.

[China Guy]

Mainland press is reporting that the big issue with the election is that owing to the shooting of Chen Shui-bian, that the military and police were mobilized against unrest. As a result, a very large and significant number of the police and military were unable to vote. Futher alledged that these people tend to vote KMT rather than DPP.

I haven't seen anything about this in the international press.

Can anyone in Taiwan comment on this?

[furt]

By "native Taiwanese," do you mean all people born in Taiwan; or the non-Chinese aborigines; or Han-Chinese whose ancestors were living in Taiwan before the Kuomintang fled across the sea?This nearly always refers to the latter. The aborigines are a very, very small population. For that matter, their views are probably the same as the "Taiwanese."

[rngadam]

This nearly always refers to the latter. The aborigines are a very, very small population. For that matter, their views are probably the same as the "Taiwanese."

Yep, that is what I had in mind.

I would also put forward that since the KMT (and most mainlanders that came with CKS) were and kept power for many years in the capital, Taipei, that is also their power base for the party. That is also were people who benefited the most from the dictatorship were. So woudn't surprise me if the only significant pro-KMT protests were in Taipei!

Personnally, even with those economic and social justification for some, I just don't understand Taiwanese that would support a party that is derived from that dictatorship, a party that would go as far as accusing the opposing side of being fascists (oh the irony! too bad Godwin's law cannot be invoke in public life) and that was completly corrupt when it was in power. A party that would rather "shoot the country in the foot" by undermining it's democracy publically... It can only be blindness to their own history, stupidity, cronyism and inertia!!

Anyway, would be nice if some pro-KMT guy could offer his views on this to help me understand...

[China Guy]

I haven't lived in Taiwan for 15 years, but I think there are fewer people now than 20 years ago that identify themselves as the radical "Taiwanese". A lot more mixed marriages these days (Taiwanese and the waishengren mainlanders), fewer and fewer of the waishengren younger generation speak their native mainland dialect, Taiwanese is required in school now (unlike before where 6 year olds were beaten and fined in school for speaking Taiwanese anywhere on school grounds), and the balance of power shifted with DPP being elected.

To be clear, what I'm saying is that the "Taiwan identity" if you will is shifting from only being a radical opposition to a broader more mainstream identity. I think you'll find fewer "Taiwanese" that want to deport all the Mainlander waishengren back to China than you did say 20 years ago. By the same token, you also find significantly fewer Mainlander waishengren that think Taiwan is the legitimate ruler of China.

[furt]

To be clear, what I'm saying is that the "Taiwan identity" if you will is shifting from only being a radical opposition to a broader more mainstream identity. I think you'll find fewer "Taiwanese" that want to deport all the Mainlander waishengren back to China than you did say 20 years ago. By the same token, you also find significantly fewer Mainlander waishengren that think Taiwan is the legitimate ruler of China.Oh, I'd make that "nearly none," and whatever ones are left are dying off. I was there 98-99 and loved talking politics; I think once I met one person who said he actually knew somone (g'father, IIRC) that wanted to retake the mainland.

OTOH, China Guy I think you underestimate the degree to which people are going to resist assimilation. Yes, the economic ties are there, but especially to young people, the mainland is seen a threat as much as an opportunity. I hope you're right about some sort of peaceable solution, but I honestly don't see it anytime soon.

rngadam, I'm no KMT flack, but there are several reasons people might vote KMT:

There are some people that do want closer ties with the mainland, in some shape, especially the businessmen CG has been talking about.
Fear of DPP leaders provoking China into armed conflict.
KMT pols are more experienced and better-known.
There is a perception, and probably a reality, that the KMT is better at making the trains run on time.
Money. KMT has it and uses it to shape opinion.
Believe it or not there are some other issues in Taiwan besides cross-Strait relations. ;)

[Apos]

As long as they refrain from very public expressions against the government

:rolleyes:

[rngadam]

Money. KMT has it and uses it to shape opinion.


Yah, I actually have first hand experience with this... Here in Montreal, they have a building bought by the KMT where activities are organized for Taiwanese... You can be damn sure that all those activities include a nice slice of propaganda! I actually went there a few times because my father-in-law was involved in the organization, but let me tell you that I became disgusted by the whole idea when I learned a little bit more about Taiwan history. It is just crass politics!

I must add to all this that althought there is some built-in disdain for mainland China from my wife (not for mainlanders in Taiwan), she still feels strongly related and proud of Chinese culture and history. If you ask her what she is and where she comes from, she will tell you "Chinese... from Taiwan" even thought her family is there since well before the KMT. So that is why I believe that there really shouldn't be any problems of unifying China and Taiwan once China becomes democratic. If again, China doesn't screw up first... Or the US decides to f*ck-up the whole deal to undermine a potential competitor.

[furt]

there really shouldn't be any problems of unifying China and Taiwan once China becomes democratic. "Aye, there's the rub."

[sailor]

:rolleyes: Apos, I mention you in this thread (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=4696174#post4696174) where we are discussing how some people can be quite self-centered in their understanding of other peoples, countries and cultures.

BTW, it would be interesting to know how much time you have spent in China and what other sources of information you handle. Do you have personal or business contacts there? Travel there with any regularity?

[ElvisL1ves]

If you ask her what she is and where she comes from, she will tell you "Chinese... from Taiwan" even thought her family is there since well before the KMT. So that is why I believe that there really shouldn't be any problems of unifying China and Taiwan once China becomes democratic.Don't bet on it. You're "North American ... from Canada", so there shouldn't be any problem with your merging with the US, right? The Irish shouldn't have any problems with reunifying their island either, then.

Seems to me more that the Taiwanese people have gotten used to, and fairly good at, running their own country, and just might not see any good reason to become an outpost province again. Taiwan has a strong historical and cultural identity of its own independent of the mainland (it's been a part of China for only 4 years out of the last 109, didja know?) and the generation of mainlanders that came over with Chiang and expected to go back is pretty much dead by now anyway.

This statement from Beijing looks like more of the usual cross-strait mind games, targeted more at mainlanders who might think they're getting soft than at Taiwan itself.

[clairobscur]

[b]

Just this year I have spent two months in China. During this visit I took more than 500 photos and have made 20 web pages already (and counting) with plenty of text and pictures about life in China. And that is just this year.
.



Hijack : Could you give us a link to your pages?

[sailor]

Hijack : Could you give us a link to your pages?For various reasons I'd rather not post a link here. One reason is that I move my pages around or delete them as I need the space and the links become obsolete. In the past threads have been resurrected which contained invalid links and I've had to email the mods to delete the links because people were complaining they did not work. But I will be happy to email you the link privately if you email me at alfgon(at)hotmail(dot)com

[Gorsnak]

Don't bet on it. You're "North American ... from Canada", so there shouldn't be any problem with your merging with the US, right?
Not to dispute your point (I have not the expertise to do so), but this analogy simply doesn't work. There's no such thing as 'North American' except as a geographical descriptor. 'Chinese', on the other hand, has a meaning that extends far beyond geography, particularly in the context given.

[Apos]

Wow, you mentioned me in a thread? Shiver me timbers. :rolleyes:

You seem to be operating under the delusion that I expressed the sum total of everything I think about China and the Chinese people in a single offhand post. At least, that's what your laughably off-topic diatribe against me ssems to assume. But we weren't discussing whether the Chinese people are happier than Americans with their system of government, just whether or not we can really get balanced and informed opinions on things like Taiwan from a country with carefully managed state media, state indoctrination and revisionist history in schools on precisely this sort of topic, and an inability to have critical free debate that diverts too far from government-approved lines of thinking. People might like that a lot. But what does that have to do with anything? You yourself conceded the very point I was making in the course of lecturing me on my deep ignorance.

But no, simply pointing out how the government distorts debates like Taiwan are apparently evokes diareah diatribe about how an ugly American just doesn't understand those inscrutable Chinese. Yeah, I know that most Chinese citizens don't live in constant fear of government knockdowns. People live their lives, and China has always, long before the Party, been a place where authority has been understood and dealt with in ways that most Western people don't understand. But that doesn't change the basic facts. You can't freely be pro-Taiwan's idepedance in China and seriously expect to get anywhere, and if you're too loud about such views, you are going to be in trouble. So, yeah, most Chinese people do play along and not worry too much about politics. A lot of them have enough to worry about on their own. But that doesn't make the intellectual culture any freer, or political debate open and honest.

And yeah, I just happen to think that the far too accepted racialist jingoism that gained popularity among many Chinese intellectuals and visions of grand Chinese destiny is just as ugly as Manifest Destiny is and was. So sue me.

For all it matters, my main contacts with China were living in Hong Kong for four years. I was in a certain Square rather soon after a certain famous incident. I've biked through smaller, non-touristy Chinese cities and countryside, had a 96 year old woman in whose village I was staying shove cabbage up my nose to cure a nosebleed. I sadly have neglected any study of Mandarin and have forgotten everything I knew, which was sort of silly anyway because almost no one in Hong Kong actually spoke Mandarin conversationally.

I wrote my two Senior college thesises on the transition of Taiwan from dictatorship to a democracy and how Singapore's democracy differs from the conventional liberal model in ways that might make it far more functional in the face of inevitable but society-questioning social issues.

That's it. Sorry I don't have the apparent insight and cred you allude to, perhaps I need to hobnobb with some more plutocrats?

[rngadam]

Don't bet on it. You're "North American ... from Canada", so there shouldn't be any problem with your merging with the US, right? The Irish shouldn't have any problems with reunifying their island either, then.

What Gorsnak said... When someone from HK, China, Taiwan or an expat says he is Chinese, he is not referring to it's geographical location but to a common (at least written) language, history, superstitions, etc...

Taiwan has a strong historical and cultural identity of its own independent of the mainland (it's been a part of China for only 4 years out of the last 109, didja know?) and the generation of mainlanders that came over with Chiang and expected to go back is pretty much dead by now anyway.

There is also lot of distinctness between South and North of China... But that doesn't mean that they aren't all proud Chineses also!

And althought yes, they haven't formally been part of China much, these years were either past under Japanese *occupation* or under the rule of a Chinese government-in-exile so there is, was and always will be a lot of society "investment" in Chinese culture.

This statement from Beijing looks like more of the usual cross-strait mind games, targeted more at mainlanders who might think they're getting soft than at Taiwan itself.

Yes, I agree with this, but as other have mentionned - it is a very dangerous game to play.

[China Guy]

Wow, you mentioned me in a thread? Shiver me timbers. :rolleyes:

You seem to be operating under the delusion that I expressed the sum total of everything I think about China and the Chinese people in a single offhand post. At least, that's what your laughably off-topic diatribe against me ssems to assume. But we weren't discussing whether the Chinese people are happier than Americans with their system of government, just whether or not we can really get balanced and informed opinions on things like Taiwan from a country with carefully managed state media, state indoctrination and revisionist history in schools on precisely this sort of topic, and an inability to have critical free debate that diverts too far from government-approved lines of thinking. People might like that a lot. But what does that have to do with anything? You yourself conceded the very point I was making in the course of lecturing me on my deep ignorance.

But no, simply pointing out how the government distorts debates like Taiwan are apparently evokes diareah diatribe about how an ugly American just doesn't understand those inscrutable Chinese. Yeah, I know that most Chinese citizens don't live in constant fear of government knockdowns. People live their lives, and China has always, long before the Party, been a place where authority has been understood and dealt with in ways that most Western people don't understand. But that doesn't change the basic facts. You can't freely be pro-Taiwan's idepedance in China and seriously expect to get anywhere, and if you're too loud about such views, you are going to be in trouble. So, yeah, most Chinese people do play along and not worry too much about politics. A lot of them have enough to worry about on their own. But that doesn't make the intellectual culture any freer, or political debate open and honest.

And yeah, I just happen to think that the far too accepted racialist jingoism that gained popularity among many Chinese intellectuals and visions of grand Chinese destiny is just as ugly as Manifest Destiny is and was. So sue me.

For all it matters, my main contacts with China were living in Hong Kong for four years. I was in a certain Square rather soon after a certain famous incident. I've biked through smaller, non-touristy Chinese cities and countryside, had a 96 year old woman in whose village I was staying shove cabbage up my nose to cure a nosebleed. I sadly have neglected any study of Mandarin and have forgotten everything I knew, which was sort of silly anyway because almost no one in Hong Kong actually spoke Mandarin conversationally.

I wrote my two Senior college thesises on the transition of Taiwan from dictatorship to a democracy and how Singapore's democracy differs from the conventional liberal model in ways that might make it far more functional in the face of inevitable but society-questioning social issues.

That's it. Sorry I don't have the apparent insight and cred you allude to, perhaps I need to hobnobb with some more plutocrats?I'm trying to say this in a nice way, but maybe you should update your views on China. Bit of a timewarp.

[Apos]

I'm trying to say this in a nice way, but maybe you should update your views on China. Bit of a timewarp.

Ok, smartypants: please point me to a public forum in China in which someone is openly promoting the idea that Taiwan should be free to decide for itself whether or not it should re-unite.

[ElvisL1ves]

Not to dispute your point (I have not the expertise to do so), but this analogy simply doesn't work. There's no such thing as 'North American' except as a geographical descriptor. 'Chinese', on the other hand, has a meaning that extends far beyond geography, particularly in the context given.
Like what, really? There are strong commonalities and strong distinctivenesses in both continents, and both cultures with their sets of subcultures. I'd even go so far as to suggest there is more cultural/historical/linguistic difference between southern and northern China than between the US and Canada. All you two have said reinforces the point I tried to make, and I don't see a basis for your demurring.

But anyway, the nub of it is still: Why would the people of Taiwan want it to become a province of the mainland again?

[sailor]

Ok, smartypants: please point me to a public forum in China in which someone is openly promoting the idea that Taiwan should be free to decide for itself whether or not it should re-unite. I don't think he said or implied or meant that in his post and I do think he has said the opposite so no need to argue.

As an aside I will say that it is possible for different people who are well informed about a country to have very different views and interpretations but, obviously, if you can establish that you are well informed about the topic at hand, that lends weight and credence to your opinions. Also, merely spending time in a country does not necessarily mean having learnt a lot. I am sure there are many foreigners who have spent long periods in China and have acquired little knowledge and I am also sure there are scholars who have learnt a lot about China even though they live elsewhere.

Merely being an American does not make one an authority on the topics of American history, American law or American culture and it could well be that someone in another country knows a lot about these topics.

I guess what I am trying to get to is that opinions born from ignorance and prejudice can be discounted as irrelevant while opinions born from knowledge may be contrary to our own but need to be given consideration. So it is reasonable to ask questions about the background of the psoter when we disagree. That helps us understand where the opinion is coming from.

[Apos]

I don't think he said or implied or meant that in his post and I do think he has said the opposite so no need to argue.

He said my views were a timewarp.

What are my views? That Chinese nationalism, a sentiment that the government uses and abuses to great extent is an ugly facet of popular culture in China. It's ugly in the US, and I criticize it harshly here, and guess what: it's still ugly in China. Is he denying that nationalist and even quasi racialist views have wide, easy, mostly uncontested, and government supported trade in China? I'm not sure what timewarp I'm supposed to be in.

That there is no real free debate about political issues because the government sees them as challenges to stability and power, and is willing to abuse both the legal system and use force to impose its views. The Chinese people might not care as much as Americans would (and frankly, I don't think that's true: if Americans were in the position of the Chinese, I'm not sure they really would make any more of a stink about things), and they certainly don't want to rock a boat to prosperity, but that was never the issue in the first place. The issue is whether Chinese people are well informed about Taiwan and can publically pronounce views antithetical to China's eventual absorbtion of it. I'm of the view that people cannot be well informed or have free opinions when there can be no open and free criticism of all positions in public.

But apparently, these views are suspect as ignorant and backwards. And of course, the self-serving line of argument that, geez, those way way different Chinese just don't care if they don't have political freedom are of course the height of honest, uncolored discourse. I mean, all the oligarchs in China assure us that it is so!

I guess what I am trying to get to is that opinions born from ignorance and prejudice can be discounted as irrelevant while opinions born from knowledge may be contrary to our own but need to be given consideration. So it is reasonable to ask questions about the background of the psoter when we disagree. That helps us understand where the opinion is coming from.

I guess, but I think you jumped all over me mostly because you didn't get enough satisfaction out of kicking Millum's ass around the room. And you exposed your own ignorance and bias in doing so: unlike the more nuanced views you just expressed, you took disagreement for a sign of American stereotype. Your request for my background was a snide dig at me, not an attempt to understand where I was coming from.

[Milum]

Sailor said in another thread...Yours is just willful ignorance because plenty of people on this board, Americans and foreigners alike, have told you how ignorant you sound. In fact, while ther is plenty of disagreement on this board about other topics I think it is safe to say there is pretty much a unanimous consensus that your opinions are ignorant and stupid. I cannot think of a single instance where you have been defended by anyone here. So, Americans and non-Americans agree: your opinions are stupid and bigoted. What else do you need to take notice?

In the thread about China you kept interjecting your childish jabs until enough people told you to go away. You are a very good example of the provincialism we are talking about in this thread. Americans and non-Americans alike have told you so.

( Mmm...that Sailor fellow seems to think that I haven't posted here for the last few days because of my shame at being thought stupid by Americans and Non- Americans.
Maybe I should explain to old Sailor that I give not a whit what Americans and non-Americans think of my degree of stupidity, rather, I instead came to realized the folly of having a worthwhile chat with a person who believes in the accuracy of opinion polls and in the integrity of personal conversations of a people whose access to information is strictly controlled by a non-elected autocracy.

I mean, what does one say in the face of such doublespeak or innocence?

Wait! I know. I'll impress Sailor and all the non-Americans with my knowledge of China. Yes, that's it...I'll summarize the pertinent facts about today's China and answer the pressing question about the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan by the Peoples Republic of China. Yeah...great idea! )

What is China? A Civilization? A Culture? A Nation? A Confederation?
China today is at once all these things... and not.
Almost 90% of China's population of over a billion are cultural Chinese, but more than 60% of the land within China's borders is occupied by ethnic and social minorities that would just a soon be independent of China, and as such they are a bit of a bitch to properly control and govern.

Tack on to this to the difficulties that the CCP has in governing the Han Chinese; a people who themselves are living extensions of social mechanisms that took root almost 3000 years ago.

Further, over 2000 counties, imbued with the impetus of traditions born in imperial China, muck about daily, oblivious to the party mandates that spring from Beijing.

Meanwhile the Chinese people learn of a better world, that is, a more material world, over a yet-to-be-completely-censored Internet.

Of the top ten most polluted cities in the world, nine are in China.
The mines in China have the world's worst safety record, and many nuclear weapons are stored about in mines and bunkers though out several outlying provinces against the possible chance that they will be needed quickly to squelch a sudden popular uprising.

Against this backdrop the CCP has little time or interest in engaging Taiwan in a hot war.

But in the modern world Communism, as a unit of government, has become passe; so capriciously, pragmatically, the Hu Jintao communists might launch an attack at anytime if they perceive that they are in need of a cause celebre to dis-focus the timely unfolding of dire events that threaten their ability to govern at home.

Pretty good theory, huh?

[China Guy]

Ok, smartypants: please point me to a public forum in China in which someone is openly promoting the idea that Taiwan should be free to decide for itself whether or not it should re-unite.There are numerous chatrooms and anonomous (sp?) internet cafes. Grant you there are not public websites but if you want to discuss the issue on line there are plenty of places to do so where the ISP is physically based in China. If you want to discuss the issues in person, no one in the average bar, restaurant, street corner will care.

Since you studied at Chinese University in Hong Kong and did your little trips to the mainland, China's economy has more than doubled - twice. Your experience from 15 years ago is valid in some respects and not valid in others.

Back to the OP, I still am a firm believer that some sort of political settlement (and not from the barrel of a gun) will come out owing to the increasing economic integration of Taiwan and China. I've put money on it happening in 5 years.

[rngadam]

I'm not trying to slam you dude. I agreed with most of what you said earlier. But on this, you're completely wrong. Taiwan's strategic importance is in its industry, not its location.

A few weeks is a long time to make a come back, but I found this really relevant article (both to the thread and to that specific point):

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FD10Ad02.html

It concludes with:


Why is Taiwan worth fighting for?

To anyone who looks at a map of the region, the reasons are obvious. Taiwan's strategic location makes it extremely valuable. The Taiwan Strait is a critical sea lane, and taking Taiwan would allow China to choke off international commercial shipping, especially oil, to Japan and South Korea, should it ever decide to do so. In addition, Taiwan serves as a vital window for US intelligence collection. Taiwan's National Security Bureau and the US National Security Agency jointly run a Signal Intelligence facility on Yangmingshan Mountain just north of Taipei (see Spook Mountain: How US spies on China, March 6, 2003). Taiwan's inclusion into China's military power structure would be unthinkable for Japan.

Worth reading.

[skarf]

sailor, I'm actually with you on this one. :D

Here's a good article that explains everything. (http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040301faessay83205/michael-d-swaine/trouble-in-taiwan.html)

[China Guy]

not sure if that article explains everything. I for one don't think that allowing Taiwan independance would result in the CCP losing power in the Mainland. That's pretty simplistic.

[furt]

... I found this really relevant article (both to the thread and to that specific point):
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FD10Ad02.html
Meh.
ISTM that that he nearly concedes in the last paragraph that he's not answering the question "does China have a realistic chance of invading Taiwan" but instead "what is China's best chance." And while the scenario he describes works better than an amphibious landing, I still think it's pretty unlikely. The gaping hole in his idea is that he just assumes that China can plop three or four divisions in Taipei at will, and that's absurd. You don't get 30,000 riflemen, let alone armor, transport planes/choppers and fighter escorts ready for an invasion without spy satellites (or Taiwanese spies) knowing what you're up to. You're talking about huge amounts of supplies being gathered, jets being fueled, etc. for weeks, if not months in advance. Even if the US wasn't interested in intervening directly, they'd surely know that something was up with, at minimum, a few days to spare and pass on the info. Taiwan would be highly unlikely to be caught completely napping; and in any event, their air force is clearly superior to China's, and would seriously complicate an air assault.

Could China get boots on the ground? Probably. But that's just a beachhead. You need to establish lines of supply for a steady stream of reinforcements, and those reinforcements would also need logistical preparations well ahead of time, which would further give away the element of surprise ... which the initial assault is predicated on.

And while his points about Taiwan's conscript military are true, there are also a lot of feircely independant types who'll be fighting in defense of their homes, in urban/mountainous terrain. Seems a wash.

As far as the strategic importance of Taiwan's location, I was addressing your suggestion that Taiwan's location was a threat to China, not vice versa. But even as far as it goes, yes, a PRC-owned Taiwan could force Japanese and Korean shipping to take a longer way around ... but why? At that point you're talking about a China that wants to antagonize the entire developed world. I mean, Spain could cut off the Straits of Gibraltar ... but why would they?

Finally, Yanmingshan is not some irreplaceable asset; and if China owning Taiwan is really "unthinkable" for Japan, ISTM that just means they'd help prevent it.


Sorry, I still can't see how China could successfully take Taiwan anytime soon. If they're acting rationally (a big "if"), they won't try.


The loss of Yanmingshan

[Eva Luna]

Mainland press is reporting that the big issue with the election is that owing to the shooting of Chen Shui-bian, that the military and police were mobilized against unrest. As a result, a very large and significant number of the police and military were unable to vote. Futher alledged that these people tend to vote KMT rather than DPP.

I haven't seen anything about this in the international press.

Can anyone in Taiwan comment on this?

[bump]

Seconded. I just heard from a friend in Taiwan today for the first time in several months (he is neither Chinese nor American, BTW, if you think either of those might skew your responses, speaks Chinese, and has been living and working there for several years now). He seems to think the whole assassination attempt was a setup for the incumbent to gain sympathy votes.

Now my friend has political opinions on other issues which are rather far outside the mainstream on occasion, but he is rather politically involved and sophisticated, and is not a crackpot. I don't pretend to have a clue about Taiwanese politics, but this just sounded nuts. Other opinions, anyone?

[Little Nemo]

If I were a Taiwanese General, I'd be sweating the next year. While the Republic of China has maintained a strong defensive force, the truth is that the main thing keeping the People's Republic from acting on its long stated goal of reunifying Taiwan is the threat of foreign (especially American) intervention.

With the United States currently involved militarily in Iraq and Afghanistan the cupboard is a little bare. Russia' problems continue. The Republic of Korea is focused on the north. India isn't going to turn its back on Pakistan. Japan is an economic not a military power. The other East Asian countires are going to stand up against China without major support. Europe is currently upset with one American intervention and isn't likely to jump in to support another.

So if Beijing decided to launch an invasion it might just get away with it. It would be, as others wrote, an seriously under-supported operation by American standards. But even a half-assed invasion might succeed before a coaltion was put together and got troops on the ground in Taiwan.

Afterwords, there would be recriminations and bitter denunciations of China's actions. But this wouldn't overturn the reunification. China's been in the doghouse of world opinion before and survived. Ten or twenty years might go by, but eventually other nations would figure what's done is done and relations with China would be restored to their former status. After all, nobody's boycotting China now over Tibet.

[furt]

It would be, as others wrote, an seriously under-supported operation by American standards. But even a half-assed invasion might succeed before a coaltion was put together and got troops on the ground in Taiwan.
:rolleyes: It's not a matter of "American standards." Chinese Tanks run out of ammo too.

And it's not a matter of a land war on Taiwan. One US carrier group supported by air and naval assets from Japan and Korea is all that's needed.

[China Guy]

There is no rational reason why China would actually try to invade Taiwan, especially as the odds against a successful invasion are pretty daunting even assuming lack of US involvement. There are plenty of rational reasons (from China's POV) why China threatens to invade Taiwan. The issue is that the threat is taken at face value.

Little Nemo, I think you are way off base that the only thing standing between a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is the US. Chiang Kai-shek was a paranoid bastard of meglomaniac proportions, and he set the stage for Taiwan to defend itself without relying on outside help. Further as I think I wrote earlier, Taiwan has the bomb and they would use it on China if somehow despite all the odds China was able to invade.

[Little Nemo]

It's not a matter of "American standards." Chinese Tanks run out of ammo too.

And it's not a matter of a land war on Taiwan. One US carrier group supported by air and naval assets from Japan and Korea is all that's needed.

I'm not going to be dogmatic here. I didn't get briefings from the NSA before I wrote this. I was primarily describing a political scenario that made an invasion possible, so maybe I didn't give enough attention to the military aspects. But I don't think the scenario I described is impossible.

Chinese tanks may run out of ammo, but that's not really what I'm talking about. An American military force has a huge logistic tail. While some of this is "luxury" a lot of it is military support that is useful but not necessary. It is possible for example to eliminate things like anti-aircraft units, mechanized transport units, communications units, anti-chemical units, and even armor units. Granted the light infantry corps you end up with would never be able to stand up against a NATO-type corps and it will take a lot more casualties than a better equipped unit, but it will be capable of fighting.

The Chinese are probably also willing to plan a battle despite casualty rates many countries would consider unacceptable. They might say it's okay to lose 50% of the invasion force at sea as long as the other 50% make it ashore. And it's okay to fight battles with 75% casualty rates as long as the other side loses in the end.

There is no rational reason why China would actually try to invade Taiwan, especially as the odds against a successful invasion are pretty daunting even assuming lack of US involvement. There are plenty of rational reasons (from China's POV) why China threatens to invade Taiwan. The issue is that the threat is taken at face value.

Little Nemo, I think you are way off base that the only thing standing between a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is the US. Chiang Kai-shek was a paranoid bastard of meglomaniac proportions, and he set the stage for Taiwan to defend itself without relying on outside help. Further as I think I wrote earlier, Taiwan has the bomb and they would use it on China if somehow despite all the odds China was able to invade.

It may not be rational, but China has made it clear that it does want to bring Taiwan back into the fold. And the current policy is to work towards this goal by peaceful means, a military solution has never been ruled out.

And I believe one of the situations where China has said it would attack Taiwan was if Taiwan acquired nuclear weapons. No offense, but I'd like a cite for your statement that Taiwan has done so. My understanding is that Taiwan ended its nuclear program before it reached the weapon stage in the face of Chinese threats.

[Abe]

I'd like to add that the most important thing for the vast majority of Chinese is prosperity. Political views tend to be the result of heavy propaganda, brain-washing even. Occasionally they are engendered by economic changes, but overall my impression is that politics simply don't matter that much. That in part explains why China has to come up with so much propaganda of such ridiculous excess and quality. Most Chinese would like to be left alone and earn a good living rather than worry about politics -- rather a wise view, especially considering how hopeless, politically speaking, things in China are.

Economic integration is the long-term approach the Communist Party is taking with Taiwan, which will eventually render military issues moot by laying the most important foundations for reunification.

As for the Taiwanese, well they look at Hong Kong and the failures of One Country Two Systems and reunification of "the lost forlorn child to the motherland's bosom", and they see ample reason for concern. Things over here, politically speaking, are a joke that goes from bad to worse daily.

[China Guy]

I suggest any one that cares runs a google search on taiwan +nuclear +weapons.

Here is just one quote:
From time to time, officials in Taiwan admit they once had a nuclear weapons program, but they have rarely discussed details. Instead, they enjoy the widespread perception that Taiwan is a "virtual proliferant"-a state that could make nuclear weapons quickly if the need should arise.

Question: given meglomanic Chiang Kai Shek, extremely high level of PhD's per capita, 6 nuclear power plants, extremely large and belligerent neighbor threatening to invade, do you really think that Taiwan didn't put together a nuclear bomb or bombs that could be assembled quickly?

[furt]

The Chinese are probably also willing to plan a battle despite casualty rates many countries would consider unacceptable. They might say it's okay to lose 50% of the invasion force at sea as long as the other 50% make it ashore. And it's okay to fight battles with 75% casualty rates as long as the other side loses in the end.Fine and good, but that means you would have to be sending positively epic numbers of troops over, who are arriving in nothing resembling military order (half of the officers being killed enroute) and without steady resupply/reinforcement. All modern armies have more tail than tooth; the more modern, the more tail-heavy. And China would not be able to keep that tail from being cut off.

A conscript army without officers, without resupply and taking horrendous casualties is going to do nothing but run for mountains.

I linked to this (http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/pdf/isec_25_02_51_0.pdf) on the first page.

[smiling bandit]

It was not long ago that we were hearing all that wishful thinking about the "Iraqis welcoming the Americans with open arms" and how democracy in Iraq would bring peace to the region.

DOn't get ahead of yourself. The majority does, according to polls, everywhere from the Kurds to the Shi'a. The people who are fighting us are a distinct minority even in their own camps.

Long story short, a large scale amphibious invasion of a country of 20 million people requires a LOT of transport capacity, and that in turn requires naval and air superiority. The Taiwanese can probably deny them both. The Chinese can have ten Quadrillion guys with rifles, but it doesn't matter if their ships keep getting sunk.

The US could shut down every Chinese port within one week. We have a few nifty toys we've been working on. There very effective and brutal to a country like China. They'd be facing a total shutdown of their shipping, military and otherwise.

You are wildly optimistic in assessing Taiwan's ability to project power over distance. Their navy is purely defensive in its design. They do not have the capacity to do more than assign one or two frigates to each Chinese port. That's not even close to enough. The truth of the matter is that China is far more likely to blockade Taiwan.

They don't have to. They can easily sink any ship China sends at them from miles away. They have modern (not state of the art, but light years better than anything China has) submarines, and an air force that would enjoy huge advantages over China's. China simply does not have a credible Navy and certainly not a credible ability to move troops and supplies.

[rngadam]

Japan is an economic not a military power.

They may not be using it, but their so-called Self Defense Force hides some pretty good hardware for $39.52 billion (FY02) compared to China's $55.91 billion (FY02). Of course, that is puny compared to the US $276.7 billion (FY99 est.)!

[from CIA World Factbook]

[furt]

Smiling Bandit: please indicate whom you are quoting whne you quote them. You are mixing up different people.

The last two quotes you have there are (I think) from me, and your responses are somewhat off the point.

The first was written in addressing Taiwan's abilities without US help, and the second was written in regards to whether or not Taiwan could attack China, not vice versa.

[smiling bandit]

I know. I was just saying is all. And lets face it: barring a huge, and I mean *huge* political change, the US would intervene in any attempt by China to take Taiwan by military force.

The second was just saying that they wouldn't have to blockade every port. That would be pointless. But they could do billions upon billions in damage to Chinese ports without fear of effective reprisal.

Sorry I didn't make that clear.