Bush to Pakistan: Bring Me Osama Before Kerry's Acceptance Speech

[rjung]

Because I figure this will make Great debates soon enough:
July Surprise? (http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040719&s=aaj071904)

This spring, the administration significantly increased its pressure on Pakistan to kill or capture Osama bin Laden, his deputy, Ayman Al Zawahiri, or the Taliban's Mullah Mohammed Omar, all of whom are believed to be hiding in the lawless tribal areas of Pakistan. ... This public pressure would be appropriate, even laudable, had it not been accompanied by an unseemly private insistence that the Pakistanis deliver these high-value targets (HVTs) before Americans go to the polls in November ... The New Republic has learned that Pakistani security officials have been told they must produce HVTs by the election.

...A third source, an official who works under ISI's director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed TNR that the Pakistanis "have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of HVTs before [the] election is [an] absolute must." ... according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that "it would be best if the arrest or killing of [any] HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July" -- the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.

Gosh, if the Administration had put this much pressure on the Pakistanis in 2002, maybe we could have caught Osama Bin Laden earlier and avoided that fiasco with Iraq. But then George wouldn't have a stunt to disrupt the DNC with... decisions, decisions.

And if that's not enough, Bush apparently doesn't give two toots about tipping over the precarious balancing act currently raging between Pakistan and India:
During his March visit to Islamabad, Powell designated Pakistan a major non-NATO ally, a status that allows its military to purchase a wider array of U.S. weaponry. ... But Powell conspicuously did not commit the United States to selling F-16s to Pakistan, which it desperately wants in order to tilt the regional balance of power against India. And the Pakistanis fear that, if they don't produce an HVT, they won't get the planes. Equally, they fear that, if they don't deliver, either Bush or a prospective Kerry administration would turn its attention to the apparent role of Pakistan's security establishment in facilitating Khan's illicit proliferation network. One Pakistani general recently in Washington confided in a journalist, "If we don't find these guys by the election, they are going to stick this whole nuclear mess up our asshole."

Maybe that can be the tag line for Bush's new campaign ads: George W. Bush -- Fighting Terrorism When It's Politically Convenient.

[Atticus Finch]

The news of the day:
- Bush Believes Capturing Osama Would Be Popular
- US Government Takes Action To Achieve Short-term Goals, Ignores Long-term Problems
- Francisco Franco Still Dead

[Northern Piper]

Bush has evidently been keeping up on his Dilbert (http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0836217799/ref=sib_dp_pt/103-1210507-7416643#reader-link).

[RandMcnally]

But how many Americans care why he was caught, as long as he's caught?

[MrTuffPaws]

Well Rand, it comes down to if beheading the dragon will really mean that much.

[rjung]

Presuming the story is true (and I suppose we'll find out by the end of the month), it's the sheer naked manipulation that really cheeses me off here. There doesn't even seem to be a minimal attempt to be subtle; it's like "Yeah, John Kerry will come out for the acceptance speech at 7:00PM, so make sure Osama's capture gets leaked to the news media right after 2:00..."

[SuperDuperMan]

Well Rand, it comes down to if beheading the dragon will really mean that much.

From what I've read, taking down Osama won't do nothing more than piss off every terrorist and their Momma. (Look Mommy, I made a ryme! )

Honestly though, all it'll do is prevoke another attack and appease the masses here in the states. A major new outlet (CNN?) recently ran a report that Big Bin Landen is as much a figurehead as Queen Elizabeth, but if The Grand Supreme Lord and Dentist of Elbonia had her knocked off because it would make his approval rating go up, you know every living Brit and King George's Uncle would revoke thier gun laws, just so they could go down to the local military surplus shop, grab a bazooka, and shove it so far up the afore mentioned dicator's ass they could clean his teeth with it.

(I understand this is a bad example, because we have a reason to grab Osama, but I thought it was kinda funny, and have just now realized the power of the run-on sentence. Also to Northern Piper, Look a Dilbert the TV Show Refrence!)

[Rashak Mani]

Well if you thought "stay the course" was staying on the same policy... you're mistaken. Its more about "keep feeding them the same bull". Apparently too many voters still appreciate the menu course offered.

" Bush defends stance on WMD "

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/07/10/senate.intelligence/index.html

Now that the Iraq war is obviously a political quagmire... he must show some terrorism credits.

[vanilla]

Do you think the American people would see through the obvious timing of it?

[Knorf]

They might, but the press will be utterly overhwelmed with the news, Kerry's acceptance will get shunted aside, and he will consequently miss out on the little bump in the polls that tradiationally comes with the conventions, due to sheer lack of exposure.

Is there anyone doubting that this is exactly how it will turn out?

[Zagadka]

I thought Bush didn't care about Osama, that he wasn't a concern.

You mean the PRESIDENT... lied?

[elucidator]

Well, me. Not that they wouldn't, only that maybe they can't.

Musharaff is in a very tricky situation, damned if he does, boned if he doesn't. The whole Islamist thing is very intensely popular in Pakistan, from what I gather. It is entirely plausible to suspect, and impossible to really know, that Al Queda sympathisizers are in a position to thwart any real attempt to comply with The Leader's wishes. Witness the big whoop-de-doo of several weeks ago, when the press was all in a lather about Pakistan's totally awesome offensive that, boy, just barely missed nailing ObL, and stuff.

Something like that is more plausible.

[Mehitabel]

Nah, guys, the events they're planning to reveal right before Kerry's speech is the capture of Saddam--whoops! Oh, no, wait, they're gonna keep Reagan alive until right before the--damn!

Inshallah. It'll happen when it happens.

[Stoid]

Do you think the American people would see through the obvious timing of it?

I continue to stand amazed and astonished that any reasonable person of good will, of average intelligence, with a modest amount of the most basic information, could believe in or support this administration in any way.

So, to answer your question... it seems they whould, doesn't it? But the recent past would lead us to the depressing conclusion that too many won't.

[minty green]

From the "Breaking News" blurb at the top of the CNN page, mere hours before Kerry is to give his acceptance speech:

Security forces have captured a high-level al Qaeda operative in a raid in central Pakistan, Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat said.

[5 time champ]

Hayat said the east African, who was sought internationally, was captured "a few days back," and his capture shows "Pakistan is committed to fighting terrorism."

Osama bin Laden is a lot things, but East African he is not.

[jk1245]

It's (allegedly) Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani, a suspect in the 98 embassy bombings.

This is interesting Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat said Thursday the east African, who was sought internationally, was captured "a few days back."


Wonder who else has been captured "a few days" ago and will be trotted out when the time is right?

[Jon the Geek]

From the "Breaking News" blurb at the top of the CNN page, mere hours before Kerry is to give his acceptance speech:

Security forces have captured a high-level al Qaeda operative in a raid in central Pakistan, Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat said.
For more on that news: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&e=3&u=/nm/20040729/ts_nm/security_pakistan_alqaeda_dc

I'm just dumbfounded. Could what I was taking as a conspiracy theory actually be true?

[vibrotronica]

From Reuters via The Agonist: (http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=5818050)
Musharraf told Al Arabiya the suspect was arrested on Sunday, but declined to name him.
Arrested on Sunday, and yet we're hearing about it now. Hmmmm....

Al Arabiya said the suspect may be Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani, a Tanzanian who is on the FBI's most wanted "terrorists" list for his alleged role in the 1998 bombings by al Qaeda of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

[5 time champ]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,127475,00.html

Of all the coincidences, who could believe the Pakistanis would "catch" a genuine Al Queda terrorist just hours before the finale of the 2004 DNC. :rolleyes:

[Spoke]

Surely -- surely -- the American people will see this for what it is, given the earlier stories foreshadowing this event.

I wonder how Bush will scratch Musharraf's back now?

And who remembers the interview with Bush before he was elected when he couldn't even come up with Musharraf's name (uh...what's his name...the general...don't tell me...)?

[fiddlesticks]

I wonder how Bush will scratch Musharraf's back now?


I'm sure the "thank you note" is already on its way to Islamabad.

But for a "high level operative" this guy isn't that well known. Most American probably have only a vague memory of the African embassy bombings. I doubt the "BREAKING NEWS" banners on Fox and CNN lasted for more than a half hour.

Any bets that a person of larger infamy is captured a week or so before November 2nd? (Then again, there's still a few hours left before the speech starts...)

[John Mace]

From Reuters via The Agonist: (http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=5818050)

Arrested on Sunday, and yet we're hearing about it now. Hmmmm....

Yeah, everyone knows all the Pakistani police had to do was go to the cave next to where the guy was captured, have the CSI folks do their famous 15 minute DNA test to confirm his identity, then pop over to the CNN cave to make the announcement.

[jshore]

John Mace: Well, at some point when people tell you in advance that "weird coincidences" are going to happen and then they do, I suppose one possibility is that it is just a weird coincidence. I don't think this is the most likely possibility though.

[John Mace]

John Mace: Well, at some point when people tell you in advance that "weird coincidences" are going to happen and then they do, I suppose one possibility is that it is just a weird coincidence. I don't think this is the most likely possibility though.

OK. let's say it's not a coincidence. As I said in the Pit thread about this, if it's true, it's a definite reason to vote for Bush. Anyone who can command that an "HVT" be aprehended at a specific time like this is exactly the type of president we need in the war against terror.

[The Hamster King]

Yeah, everyone knows all the Pakistani police had to do was go to the cave next to where the guy was captured, have the CSI folks do their famous 15 minute DNA test to confirm his identity, then pop over to the CNN cave to make the announcement.

The delay doesn't seem to be the result of having to identify the suspect. From the latest AP report:

"Hayyat announced the arrest after midnight in Pakistan in an interview with Geo television, an unusually late hour considering the arrests were made Sunday and authorities had known but not revealed the man's identity for some days."

More rat-fucking from the dirty tricksters, I say ... .

[Jackknifed Juggernaut]

Has anyone considered the possibility that catching Bin Laden prior to the election could have a negative effect on Bush's re-election chances? I think that many people have the simple-minded opinion that Bin Laden is the bad guy. Sure, they've heard of Al Queda, but Osama Bin Laden is more of a household name. So maybe once Osama is caught, people will be happy and think: "Great, we got the bad guy. He can't hurt us any more." And then: "Wait, I still can't find a job. I'm a software engineer working in Walmart. Our country is in a huge deficit........let's give Kerry a chance." Basically, Bush did his job and we don't need him anymore.

[John Mace]

The delay doesn't seem to be the result of having to identify the suspect. From the latest AP report:

"Hayyat announced the arrest after midnight in Pakistan in an interview with Geo television, an unusually late hour considering the arrests were made Sunday and authorities had known but not revealed the man's identity for some days."

Do you have a link? The quote you gave really doesn't address the issue of how long it would/should/could take to identify this guy.

But I'll tell you what. If ObL is captured a few weeks before the election, I'll put my tin foil hat on with the rest of you guys...

What do you think is going to happen? Kerry starts his speech, and all the networks cut to a Pakistani spokesman to get the latest details about this guy? It's good and interesting news, but it just isn't going to put the slightest dent into the convention coverage. Rove is better than this.

[Apos]

I'm not sure why this is a "coincidence." The New Republic story was pretty solid: they found multiple indepedant sources whose stories fit each other and the facts. The Pakistanis were told to capture someone in time for the convention, and now they have. Perhaps the hope was that it could be someone bigger. But the story stood on its own whether or not the results came to pass. Now that they have, it certainly seems to be just more confirmatory evidence of the story. Not hats required.

As I said in the Pit thread about this, if it's true, it's a definite reason to vote for Bush. Anyone who can command that an "HVT" be aprehended at a specific time like this is exactly the type of president we need in the war against terror.

Any President who would put partisan showmanship above our national security shouldn't be leading our country. And there is no reason to think that Bush has any special powers that any other President wouldn't have the same access to, if not greater access given that they might have better international political capital.

[The Hamster King]

Do you have a link? The quote you gave really doesn't address the issue of how long it would/should/could take to identify this guy.

But I'll tell you what. If ObL is captured a few weeks before the election, I'll put my tin foil hat on with the rest of you guys...

What do you think is going to happen? Kerry starts his speech, and all the networks cut to a Pakistani spokesman to get the latest details about this guy? It's good and interesting news, but it just isn't going to put the slightest dent into the convention coverage. Rove is better than this.


Here's the first place I could find on Google News running the AP story.

http://www.xposed.com/headline_news/49_ds_765292.aspx

For the record, I don't think that there is some tightly-orchestrated media push going on here. I think that the original New Republic story from early in July was probably basically correct. The administration leaned on Pakistan to produce a high-value target during the DNC. Pakistan worked extra hard and pulled it off. Probably they wanted to interrogate the guy before they released his name, so a delay of a few days is probably reasonable.

The weird thing to me is that they announced it at a press conference at midnight local time. After he'd been in custody (and ID'd) for days. Why the sudden rush to get the news out? Unless the Pakistani authorities were eager to make sure the DNC was still going on when the news broke.

I don't expect the "War on Terror" to stop so the Democrats can throw a party. But I also don't want to see the Repulbicans manipulating national security as an election ploy.

If the New Republic hadn't run it's earlier article, my response to today's news would be "hmm, freaky coincidence". But now it just provides additional evidence that TNR's allegations were correct.

I also wouldn't give Rove too much credit. As I pointed out in the pit thread, someone in the Bush administration through it was a dandy idea to blow the cover of a covert CIA operative in an effort to intimidate a critic. That was a collossally stupid move, and one that will bear quite bitter fruit if names are ever named.

[The Hamster King]

That should be "thought it was a dandy idea".

[Gatopescado]

.. the press will be utterly overhwelmed with the news, Kerry's acceptance will get shunted aside, and he will consequently miss out on the little bump in the polls....Is there anyone doubting that this is exactly how it will turn out?

I doubt it. I think you are overestimating the the public's interest in Kerry's speech. Who really cares? We already know hes got the nomination. This is no big suprise. Kerry supporters will watch it and get all warm and fuzzy and Bush supporters will watch Comedy Central or Fox or whatever (its Thursday, I party and BBQ on the deck) and not care one way or the other.

Hell, are the four "major networks" even running the convention tonight?

[John Mace]

I doubt it. I think you are overestimating the the public's interest in Kerry's speech. Who really cares? We already know hes got the nomination. This is no big suprise. Kerry supporters will watch it and get all warm and fuzzy and Bush supporters will watch Comedy Central or Fox or whatever (its Thursday, I party and BBQ on the deck) and not care one way or the other.

Hell, are the four "major networks" even running the convention tonight?

To be fair, Knorf was talking about ObL being captured (per the OP), not this guy who was captured on Sunday. Had it been ObL, there would be some competition for news time.

[rjung]

OK. let's say it's not a coincidence. As I said in the Pit thread about this, if it's true, it's a definite reason to vote for Bush. Anyone who can command that an "HVT" be aprehended at a specific time like this is exactly the type of president we need in the war against terror.
Please tell me you don't seriously believe this Bushit. Are you seriously endorsing the naked partisan move of trumping political expediency over national security that we're seeing here?

Or, to put it in simpler terms, if Bush really has this kind of clout, why didn't he use it three years earlier, instead of dicking around and waiting until NOW for the payoff? :mad:

(Then again, maybe I shouldn't be surprised, since Ronald Reagan dicked around with the hostages in Iran for his election, and the Republican Party will still gladly kiss his dead ass over that...)

[Gaudere]

I think he was making a funny. I laughed, anyway. --> :D

[John Mace]

Please tell me you don't seriously believe this...

Of course I don't. But it makes about as much sense as the rest of the conspiracy theory crap being spouted in this thread.

[Measure for Measure]

This so-called conspiracy theory made a prediction that was later borne out. This should increase one's confidence in the reporting of the original story, assuming that one can be swayed by factual evidence.

[John Mace]

This so-called conspiracy theory made a prediction that was later borne out. This should increase one's confidence in the reporting of the original story, assuming that one can be swayed by factual evidence.

When shall I expect to hear Kerry use this "factural evidence" in his campaign against Bush? Perhaps my threshold for belief is closer to his than to yours.

[Brutus]

OMFG!!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

South Carolina's agriculture commissioner was arrested Thursday on charges of taking at least $20,000 in payoffs to protect a cockfighting ring from the law. (http://www.cnn.com/2004/LAW/07/29/cockfighting.commissioner.ap/index.html)

Bushco probably waited until the Demmie convention to spring this one on us!

[Airman Doors, USAF]

OK. let's say it's not a coincidence. As I said in the Pit thread about this, if it's true, it's a definite reason to vote for Bush. Anyone who can command that an "HVT" be aprehended at a specific time like this is exactly the type of president we need in the war against terror.

John, think about this statement you made for a second. If Bush can conjure up an HVT at a moment's notice, then perhaps you can tell me why after almost three years we're still looking for them. If he could snap his fingers and get anyone he wanted, then why do we not have Bin Laden? And why didn't we have him three years ago?

It might be random, it might not be, but either way your statement doesn't bear any sort of scrutiny, and it would seem to me to be more tongue-in-cheek than anything else. At least I hope so.

[Knorf]

I doubt it. I think you are overestimating the the public's interest in Kerry's speech. Who really cares? We already know hes got the nomination. This is no big suprise. Kerry supporters will watch it and get all warm and fuzzy and Bush supporters will watch Comedy Central or Fox or whatever (its Thursday, I party and BBQ on the deck) and not care one way or the other.

Hell, are the four "major networks" even running the convention tonight?
Candidates always get a little bump in the polls during and shortly following the national conventions. Media coverage has a lot to do with this.

[Steve MB]

Musharaff is in a very tricky situation, damned if he does, boned if he doesn't.
As long as we're spinning conspiracy theories -- Musharaff wants Washington off his back so he can go back to pandering to the Wahabiwackjobs, he figures Kerry is likely to do that, he figures that catching a high-panjandrum Wahabiwackjob with oh-so-convenient timing is a good way to undermine Bush, so he did just that.

What do I win?

[Unregistered Bull]

OMFG!!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

South Carolina's agriculture commissioner was arrested Thursday on charges of taking at least $20,000 in payoffs to protect a cockfighting ring from the law. (http://www.cnn.com/2004/LAW/07/29/cockfighting.commissioner.ap/index.html)

Bushco probably waited until the Demmie convention to spring this one on us!


Not much of a story there yet. Donations from nutcase whackos like PETA, HSUS, or the SPCA and their perverse supporters aren't illegal. Donations from normal, wholesome gamefowl breeders shouldn't be either. Testing is legal in SC anyway. The arrest is just pandering to bigots (elitists) who hate the whole human race and put animals on the level of human beings or those that hate people who participate in their rural culture. Nothing new for politicians who are seldom worth even their sweat.

[Gatopescado]

Candidates always get a little bump in the polls during and shortly following the national conventions. Media coverage has a lot to do with this.

Well, sure they do. I just don't think the capture of a "suspect" who's name doesn't end in Bin Laden is going to steal much thunder from a theatrical rendition of an "acceptance" speech from one of only two candidates in the whole race.*

Kerry's announcement of his running mate far outshone (is that even a word? Outshined? whats the past tense? ;) ) this staged, predictable foregone conclusion.

*I just got done watching said speech. I think he did a much better job than any past televised appearence. I doubt he really swayed anyones opinion/vote however. Man, his wife is creepy. Yes, I've also been drinking. ;) I logged on to participate in a "homebrew" thread.

[Knorf]

Well, sure they do. I just don't think the capture of a "suspect" who's name doesn't end in Bin Laden is going to steal much thunder from a theatrical rendition of an "acceptance" speech from one of only two candidates in the whole race.

Well gotta agree with you there. If they *had* bagged OBL, it would have been a very different story.

[elucidator]

Counter spin, hat adjustment, reality upchuck....

Checking the blogiverse, some talk that the Pakistanis let the info out too early, logic being that as long as the AlQ didn't know he was captured, then information they got from him might still be current, but as soon as it was known that he was captured, his AlQ cell members would start disposing of things.

At any rate, they had him for several days. Gotta wonder what kind of shape he's in...

[rjung]

As long as we're spinning conspiracy theories -- Musharaff wants Washington off his back so he can go back to pandering to the Wahabiwackjobs, he figures Kerry is likely to do that, he figures that catching a high-panjandrum Wahabiwackjob with oh-so-convenient timing is a good way to undermine Bush, so he did just that.

What do I win?
The booby prize, but thanks for playing.

Musharaff hoping that a Kerry Presidency will take the heat off of him does not have a payoff as good as Musharaff getting hardware from Washington to use against India; why go against Bush and pray for a lucky roll of the dice?

[Apos]

This doesn't deserve to drop off the radar. Let's summarize:

-New Republic reporters quote several indepedant sources in the Pakistani government and intelligence agencies who told them that the Bush administration had recently started to demand that they produce high-value targets, and had given them specific dates: during the week of the Democratic convention, and before the US election. They were threatened/bribed with various military deals if they did not deliver before those deadlines. The facts on these claims, including the weapon systems deals, all seem to check out.

-The afternoon before Kerry speaks at the convention, the Pakistanis announce the capture of a major FBI most wanted figure, "another crowning success of Pakistan's security apparatus in the fight against terrorism." Wait, no. NOT THE DAY. The announcement is, inexplicably, made in what, in Pakistan, is midnight. Press conferences, especially those announcing information that is almost a week old and certainly is not so urgent that it cannot wait until morning, are not generally held at midnight, when no one in Pakistan is listening or watching. The intended audience was obviously not fellow Pakistanis, but Americans.

-Counter-terrorism experts are baffled by several things here. First, that they would announce the capture PRIOR to fully interrogating him: a break in the normal proceedure. Broadcasting someone's capture before you've had a chance to try and make use of the information you get can seriously undermine the value of that capture to counter-terror efforts, giving your enemies a big head start to cut all ties to the guy or escape any contact that they might have set up that are now compromised. The warnings that are later given also raise red flags: why let the enemy know so quickly and grandly that you are on to them and publically show your hand as to exactly what sort of security forces we can deploy?

-Ridge praises Bush's efforts in his terror announcements (implying, perhaps truthfully, that Bush was responsible for drumming up the new intelligence) and at the same time denies that there is anything partisan about the warnings (nevermind that the two are not mutually exclusive). The Bush twins, who had previously said that they would only ever make public appearances for campaign events, appear with their mother for a "standing up against terror" photo-op in the stock exchange.

How can anyone call this a conspiracy theory? At the very least, the Pakistanis appear to be putting partisan motives above wise security, and timed the press conference accordingly. And given that no one has well refuted the New Republic findings so far, it's hard to deny that the administration has at the very least put pressure on the Pakistanis that it had, inexplicably, not been putting on in the last few years.