Bush ahead; what must Kerry do?

[Genghis Bob]

According to this Electoral Vote prediction (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) site, Bush is ahead, and will be ahead come November 2.

So, what does Kerry need to do in the next eight days to turn it around? What themes has he not been hitting that he needs to pound on? What part of his message is not getting through - or what part is getting through, too well?

I think he has let Bush paint him as a tax-and-spend liberal; I've heard from lots of folks (I know, it's all anecdotal) that, while they may not like Bush much, they don't trust the liberal Kerry. I also think Kerry has failed to outline his a accomplishments while in the Senate, particularly in the areas of foreign policy and bi-partisan initiatives.

Can he turn it around in time? What must he do, to do so?

[SmackFu]

The totals on that site are crap. If it's a dead heat on a poll in a state, within the margin of error, there's no logical way you can call that state for either candidate.

The totals are really Bush 214, Kerry 203, and 121 tossup.

[bup]

Kerry needs to wait until electoral-vote.com updates tomorrow, for one thing. On Friday they were predicting a Kerry win.

Kerry needs to keep convincing people that he's strong on terrorism, that Bush and Cheney are trying to get people to vote out of fear, and that Bush's "strong" terrorism stance is belied by a poor track record. Terrorism is up, there were more vulnerable nuclear warheads destroyed before 2001 than after, he didn't catch bin Laden, he ignored reports that bin Laden was determined to strike, etc.

And he needs his volunteer army to make sure everyone who can vote gets to the polls and doesn't get intimidated/rejected on election day.

[jshore]

I agree with SmackFu. You can't accept that site's count of electoral votes as gospel. A 2% shift in a few swing states and you have a completely, totally different result. And, there is a record number of new registered voters this year, with some indications that these will favor Kerry. The election is really a toss-up at this point. It is becoming more and more a matter of who does the best job getting voters to the polls.

[aahala]

At this point, why would you expect Kerry to do something positive? It's rarely happened this year or last and he certainly has had many chances due to pure luck.

If public opinion is really just 2-3 points in Bush's favor, then differences in turnout could win the day for Kerry. If it's more like 6 points, then it's entirely up to Bush making a blunder or some adverse external news, like from Iraq, that's gives Kerry a chance.

[Genghis Bob]

Okay, let's re-frame the question then. Given the low approval rating for Bush (still below 50%?) why isn't Kerry running away from him?

It seems clear (at least to me) that people, even those who are unhappy about Bush, are not enthused about Kerry. What about his message is not getting through? And so on, refering back to my original post.

In other words: critique Kerry's strategy so far, and suggest what he needs to do in the next eight (seven-and-a-half) days.

[Aldebaran]

... or some adverse external news, like from Iraq, that's gives Kerry a chance.

He can already use this one:

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=282764


Salaam. A

[Genghis Bob]

At this point, why would you expect Kerry to do something positive? It's rarely happened this year or last and he certainly has had many chances due to pure luck.

If public opinion is really just 2-3 points in Bush's favor, then differences in turnout could win the day for Kerry. If it's more like 6 points, then it's entirely up to Bush making a blunder or some adverse external news, like from Iraq, that's gives Kerry a chance.

I'm not saying I expect Kerry to do something positive. I'm asking if he should have. In my opinion, yes, he should have been more proactive in filling in the holes in his biography before the Republicans did it for him. I think his strategy has been flawed.

Agree with me, and tell me how much you agree with me. Or disagree with me, and tell me what he should have done, or tell me why he has run the best campaign he could have, and shouldn't have changed a thing.

[BobLibDem]

Flying to Pakistan and capturing Osama binLaden personally wouldn't hurt.

People read way too much into electoral-vote.com. Kerry needs to stay steady, keep campaigning, and use Clinton as much as he can in places like Philadelphia and Arkansas. Keep hammering Bush and answer every charge that Rove throws at him.

[jshore]

Oh...And, I would read all of the stuff below the map on that electoral vote site, and particularly click on the link going to the article about undecideds. Of course, Bush's appeal to fear is clearly a strategy to try to get the undecideds to break more toward the incumbent than they usually do. Who knows if it will be successful or not.

[blowero]

If you believe all the pundits, Kerry needs to:

Be less liberal

Be less centrist

Stop pandering to the voters

Tell the voters what they want to hear

Communicate a clear message without getting bogged down in details

Give more details

Focus on the positive

Attack Bush's negatives more forcefully


If he clones himself and simultaneously runs an anti-Kerry, he just might pull it off. ;)

Okay, let's re-frame the question then. Given the low approval rating for Bush (still below 50%?) why isn't Kerry running away from him?

The number of people who approve of Bush is pretty close to the number of people who say they will vote for him. Makes sense to me.

[Metacom]

If he clones himself and simultaneously runs an anti-Kerry, he just might pull it off. ;)
Brilliant! Such a maneuver would also fend off the "flip-flopper" criticisms: by simultaneously positioning Kerry in both the flip-state and the flop-state, the dualistic Kerrylets would prevent people from characterizing Kerry has someone who oscillates between two different positions!

[Airblairxxx]

I seriously doubt Bush is ahead by any meaningful margin; there's enough polling evidence to support pretty much any viewpoint.

I will say this: the electoral vote comes down to a few swing states where the margins are currently too close to call. And if that's the case, and if past trends hold true (like independents breaking for the challenger, because they've already had four years of the incumbent, and if they're not yet convinced they won't ever be), and if certain other factors unique to this election also hold true (that there will be large numbers of new voters, who will also tend to break for the challenger since they skew young, urban, and minority--IOW Democrat-trending), then Kerry is sitting pretty.

What I don't wish for, however, seems fairly possible: that the winner could win the EV without winning the popular vote. That's the last thing this country needs.

But in terms of Kerry's chances, he is running against probably the most negative campaign in presidential campaign history. It's amazing how much effort the Bushies are putting into making this election a referendum on the challenger, while distorting his record and his words. Just look at the spikes in Kerry's popularity, and when they took place: after the DNC and after the debates. In other words, when voters got an unfiltered look at the man and his positions.

So that's why he isn't running away with the election, despite Bush's continual polling below 50% approval rating. But I'll also say this: The best way to predict this election at this point is not on the basis of head-to-head polls, but rather by looking at that approval rating. The president will not poll above that number. If it's below 50%, especially as the election becomes closer, John Kerry can begin picking out a suit for his inauguration.

[Genghis Bob]

While all the input on Electoral-Vote.com is very interesting and somewhat encouraging, there's already at least one thread devoted to the accuracy of the polls. I'm sorry I mentioned the site, because it led us astray from the question I had hoped we could fight about: what should Kerry be doing differently at this stage in his campaign, if anything?

[Spoke]

Yes, let us not forget the cell phone factor. The polls miss people who use cell phones exclusively. Exclusive cell phone users trend young. Young voters favor Kerry by a large margin.

The other X-factor is how you define "likely voter." Some of the polls exclude new registrants. There are indications that new registrants are largely Democratic. (Whether they will turn out to vote is another issue.)

Bottom line:

The polls are of limited value. This is an incredibly tight race. Turnout is everything this year.

[braintree]

I think he should go after Bush's greatest strength - his perceived superiority as a national security president.

1. Dick Cheney repeatedly failed to meet with the terrorism task force in the months leading up to 9/11
2. Dick Cheney, as CEO of Halliburton did business with Iran and recommended dropping sanctions against Saddam Hussein
3. The new CIA guy — appointed by the president — wanted twice as much in CIA spending cuts as the ones Bush is now bitching at Kerry for supporting.
4. While repeatedly being warned about an impending attack from Al Qaeda, the president went and stayed on vacation.
5. John Ashcroft asked for cuts in anti-terrorism funding on 9/10.
6. When attacked, the President sat on his ass for ten minutes and then went a-schmoozing. Then he hid.
7. Unlike the president or vice president, John Kerry has actually taken the trouble to defend his country (actually, he's using that).
8. Point out that the president by not protecting our container ports, our chemical plants or our nuclear power plants has left us exposed at home while building a missile defense shield that does nothing to protect us but makes a lot of money for the military-industrial complex.
8. The president, through his usual incompetency, let our enemies in Iraq get their hands on 350 tons of high explosives which which our enemies have been using to attack our troops: http://story.news.yahoo.com/fc?cid=34&tmpl=fc&in=World&cat=Iraq

That happened a year ago and the story just broke yesterday. The White House's justification for keeping it a secret? That they wanted to keep it a secret to our enemies wouldn't know that they had stolen it.

I'd say Big John's got a fair amount to work with.

[Jonathan Chance]

While all the input on Electoral-Vote.com is very interesting and somewhat encouraging, there's already at least one thread devoted to the accuracy of the polls. I'm sorry I mentioned the site, because it led us astray from the question I had hoped we could fight about: what should Kerry be doing differently at this stage in his campaign, if anything?

I would say nothing. At this point it's a matter of shoring up the moderate states and getting out the vote.

Keep making visits in the swing states.
Keep advertising in the swing states.
Keep granting televised interviews and looking 'presidential'.

And yes, capturing OBL single-handedly wouldn't hurt.

[aahala]

There are two basic ways to beat an incumbant -- I am more competent than my opponent or I am different from my opponent. Being prepared to use either is one thing, but averaging both themes, or moving back and forward one day to the next is not a good stragedy.

Kerry has been a senator for 20 years. He and his advisers knew a year ago the nature of some of these attacks and prepared him with in some cases a B- defense. If your big time advisers can't do better than that given the lead time, you need a new brain trust.

How about getting more specific in regard to some of your issues, like importing drugs, failures in defense planning or the coalition of the willing. Get the researchers out there to find a US plant producing a single drug, some packaged for the US and some packaged for Canada so you can tell the American people the only difference is the price and package, and Bush is responsible for the former.

Look for an example of the US company outscoring jobs -- let's see if we can get one like this: an Enron office in Tampa or Cleveland that went overseas because of a tax bill Bush signed and "I"(Kerry) voted against.

I would like to know how much(or how little) Arabic language training our troops got before the occupation. Surely Mr. President, that wasn't good enough and I will do better, etc.

[bup]

Kerry needs to wait until electoral-vote.com updates tomorrow, for one thing.I'm a genius (http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/oct26x.html). It's in the bag for Kerry now!

[aahala]

I'm a genius (http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/oct26x.html). It's in the bag for Kerry now!
Excellent!

Not only did Kerry show the good judgment and momentum of winning several states overnight before the polls open, he now has a surplus elector. Vote for bup.

[rfgdxm]

I'm a genius (http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/oct26x.html). It's in the bag for Kerry now!
Take a look at Florida. Dead even. This isn't anywhere NEAR in the bag.

[charizard]

I'll tell you something that he needs to stop doing... he needs to stop with all the insulting language.

I'm a moderate and an indepenent, and I presume that accounts for a large chunk of the 10% undecided voters that both candidates are looking to convince.

When Kerry was first chosen, he seemed like an OK choice. He had a hard time keeping on-message (kept letting himself get yanked back to the Vietnam thing), but he seemed to have potential for offering a choice come election day.

Now, though, after his big staff shake-up, it seems like everything he says is like nails on a chalkboard. I guess it's supposed to make him sound tough, but all it's done for me is make him sound like a right b*st*rd. Not the kind of behavior I want to see from the White House.

[Northern Piper]

I guess it's supposed to make him sound tough, but all it's done for me is make him sound like a right b*st*rd. Not the kind of behavior I want to see from the White House.And that's different from the current occupant in what way?

[charizard]

And that's different from the current occupant in what way?
It's quite a bit different from the current occupant.

Say what you will about what Bush has done as President (and, believe me, I'd have a lot to say on that topic). But at least he's maintained a demeanor appropriate to the office, even when dealing with his opponents.

So, what will Kerry do when he reaches his first international crisis? Win the world over to our side, and show that the US is "strong", by calling foreign leaders "gutless", "clueless", "liars", "bungling", "incompetent", (long list of similar invectives omitted)?

This sort of language has no place in statesmanship, nor does it belong in any civil discourse. If Kerry's trying to show people like me that he's got what it takes to be President, he's hurting himself by engaging in it.

[bup]

So, what will Kerry do when he reaches his first international crisis? Win the world over to our side, and show that the US is "strong", by calling foreign leaders "gutless", "clueless", "liars", "bungling", "incompetent", (long list of similar invectives omitted)?

This sort of language has no place in statesmanship, nor does it belong in any civil discourse. If Kerry's trying to show people like me that he's got what it takes to be President, he's hurting himself by engaging in it."Incompetent" I'll grant you, and I believe "bungling." I don't think they're inappropriate when one wants to send a strong message.

"Liars"? I've heard Kerry specifically avoid that phrase - and I'd also like to see cites for "clueless" and "gutless" before deciding if I thought they were inappropriate.

[Genghis Bob]

Take a look at Florida. Dead even. This isn't anywhere NEAR in the bag.

If Ohio and Hawaii switch over to Kerry, it doesn't matter what Florida does. Take a look at the projected map; give Florida, Wisconsin and Iowa to Bush, and Kerry still wins, 271-261.

[5que]

Well, all the pundits on Chris Matthews' show on Sunday morning are now predicting a Kerry win. They were pointing to:

Incumbent presidents don’t get more than their popularity rating percentage in the last two weeks of the race
Huge numbers of newly registered voters, particularly African-American. New voters tend to go much more to the challenger.
Prediction of 2 million more young people voting than in 2000
Cell phone thingy (though I probably heard that here, not on TV)
Oh, and the prediction that there will never again be a concession speech on the evening of election day.

Bottom line for us mortals: too close to call.

[LilShieste]

But at least he's maintained a demeanor appropriate to the office, even when dealing with his opponents.
Completely ignoring the requests, and suggestions (I repeat, ignoring) of our other allies, prior to invading Iraq... that's one example, among many, showing Bush's inappropriate "office demeanor". If you want to accuse Kerry of not engaging in "civil discourse", well I guess you can. But you you certainly cannot expect me to believe that Bush has always acted presidential (while holding office of POTUS).

So, what will Kerry do when he reaches his first international crisis? Win the world over to our side, and show that the US is "strong", by calling foreign leaders "gutless", "clueless", "liars", "bungling", "incompetent", (long list of similar invectives omitted)?
As bup has already requested, could you provide some cites of Kerry calling our allies "gutless", or "liars" or anything else in that "long list of similar invectives"? And as I mentioned above, Kerry could probably win some our allies back over (at least a little bit) by simply saying "Look, we need your help. We're sorry that we went this alone, we were wrong to completely blow you off."

The point that Kerry is trying to make is that Bush really thinks we have a "true coalition", when we really don't.

Poland supplied around 200 troops to the Iraq invasion (cite (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq)), yet Bush wants to imply that Poland is providing us with some "grand help"? That's like me claiming that my cat helps me clean the house, by licking himself.

When Kerry talks about our "Coalition of the Willing", he is trying to describe the reality of the matter, which is blatantly distorted by Team Bush. When he says "We did not have a true coalition..." that does not mean, "Our coalition allies really suck ass...", it means "We shouldn't have pissed off our other allies."

The fact that people even have to have this explained to them is proof that Bush has not carried the demeanor of a president.

As for what Kerry needs to do for the next week? I would say continue doing what he's currently doing. I truly believe that if people can still not make up their minds about who they are going to vote for, no amount of statistics, facts, or even propaganda will push them considerably to one side or the other.


LilShieste

[Jonathan Chance]

Well, I gotta admit...that's one really clean cat.

And my guess is that Kerry could call our allies 'limp-wristed shit-eaters' and they'd still come to the table happily if he's elected.

They know the difference between campaign rhetoric and day-to-day speech.

[braintree]

I'd like to suggest that it's absurd to criticize Kerry for being too negative when he's describing the Bush Administration. Not to be negative is to be grossly inaccurate and, hence, grossly irresponsible.

There's just no nice way to tell the truth here because the truth itself is so ugly.

[Patty O'Furniture]

Kerry just needs to wait for Bush to say something stupid (again), like coming out in favor of same sex unions or something.

[LilShieste]

Well, I gotta admit...that's one really clean cat.
Perhaps my hyperbole was a little too hyperbolesque. :)

LilShieste

[capacitor]

Kerry may have something: the missing explosives in Al Qaqaa.

[Airblairxxx]

If Ohio and Hawaii switch over to Kerry, it doesn't matter what Florida does. Take a look at the projected map; give Florida, Wisconsin and Iowa to Bush, and Kerry still wins, 271-261.

Are you assuming Kerry takes Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, and Arkansas? Check out the LA Times Electoral Vote Tracker (http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-polldatapage,1,3925465.htmlstory) (free reg req'd) and play with that. When I give Kerry OR, WA, NH, NJ, HI, OH, and MI, those plus the states already in his column give him 252 EVs. (IMHO, Ohio is the only one of thost states where W has a chance. I know the latest poll in Hawaii had W slightly ahead, but this election isn't for King of Make-Believe.) Kerry needs 18 more to win, with the following still battleground states in my scenario:

NM (5 EVs)
NV (5)
IA (7)
MN (10)
WI (10)
FL (27)
AR (6)

(All state-by-state data I'm swiping from www.race2004.net.)

Looking at those seven battleground states, FL and NM lean Kerry in the latest poll but are too close to call. These were the two closest results in the 2000 election, so we'll call them tossups again.

NV and IA lean Bush, again too close to call.

Bush hasn't polled lower than 47% in Wisconsin since 10/13, and he's almost over the magical 50% level there. There's a Gore state lost. Fucking "Lambert Field".

Minnesota: Again very close, but Kerry has broken the 50% ceiling a couple of times lately. W has gotten 48% in a couple of recent Strategic Vision polls, however Kerry got 48 and 49% in those same polls, and Strategic Vision is a GOP outfit.

This leaves Arkansas. The great "Huh?" state of the race. You'd think W would be pulling away here, and the most recent poll has him up 51-45, but you gotta wonder if having Bill Clinton make a few stops in his native state wouldn't help fire up the Democrats. Also, the Democratic Senator, Blanche Lincoln, is expected to win re-election in a cakewalk, so this is hardly barren ground for the Dems (unlike most of the rest of the South). But if you don't see any signs of them making an effort, no TV time purchased, no Clinton (or even Wesley Clark) appearances, this one's in W's column.

[Apos]

Kerry is already ahead in every place that counts. The mood in camp Republican is quite wonderfully desperate. How I love the screams of frustration in the morning. Unless they have some sort of big bomb to drop on Kerry saved up (which probably wouldn't hit until Friday for maximum impact with little time to respond), they are in a very very bad place for a personally popular wartime incumbent to be. Granted, it's far from a huge Kerry lead, and I doubt it will be given the previous advantages Bush has. But it looks like this season's underdog magic is coming into play. A year ago, I would have NEVER thought it possible that Bush would even be in reach.

But at least he's maintained a demeanor appropriate to the office, even when dealing with his opponents.

You haven't read Spinsanity's exhaustive examination "All the President's Spin"

[Patty O'Furniture]

Kerry just needs to wait for Bush to say something stupid (again), like coming out in favor of same sex unions or something. (http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/politics/10020205.htm?1c)

[elucidator]

...And yes, capturing OBL single-handedly wouldn't hurt.

Who?