What effect would a supervolcano have on America being a World Leader?

[Ryan_Liam]

I watched 'Supervolcano' on BBC one where the potential affect was the disruption of 25 million people within the vicinity of Wyoming, with a greater portion of the US (3 quarters) being subject to a blanket of Ash, with devastating effects. It lasts around a week, but I was wondering on the long term effects, say if it were to happen now, on its economic and military situation, would the US collapse? Or would it be severly impoverished, having to maintain commitments and a large domestic disturbance as well?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4326987.stm

The authors want to highlight the issue, which they feel is being ignored by governments. They emphasise that while catastrophic eruptions of this kind are rare in terms of a human lifetime, they are surprisingly common on a geological scale.

[BrainGlutton]

"Being ignored by governments"? What are governments to do? Nobody knows how to predict or prevent volcanic eruptions, or earthquakes or tsunamis. Are they saying we should have some kind of emergency preparedness in place? If 3/4 of the world were covered in volcanic ash, that would disrupt agriculture for at least a year. And I see no practical way of stockpiling a year's supply of emergency food rations for the whole country, let alone the whole world.

Has a "supervolcano" like this ever happened before in human history? In Earth's history?

[Ryan_Liam]

"Being ignored by governments"? What are governments to do? Nobody knows how to predict or prevent volcanic eruptions, or earthquakes or tsunamis. Are they saying we should have some kind of emergency preparedness in place? If 3/4 of the world were covered in volcanic ash, that would disrupt agriculture for at least a year. And I see no practical way of stockpiling a year's supply of emergency food rations for the whole country, let alone the whole world.

Has a "supervolcano" like this ever happened before in human history? In Earth's history?

did you even read the link? It's happened 3 times, all three in Wyoming, and thats the supervolcanoes we do know about.

3/4 isn't going to be covered by Volcanic ash, but 3/4 of the US will be, the rest of the World would be affected by the release of Sulphur Dioxide and other Aerosols into the Stratosphere, bringing down the Earths climate to a disasterous low.

We should have some preparedness for a portion of the population to survive, the most viable anyway, which would increase chances of our survival afterwards, which is the main problem.

[BrainGlutton]

We should have some preparedness for a portion of the population to survive, the most viable anyway, which would increase chances of our survival afterwards, which is the main problem.

We have preparations -- large subterranean shelters in Virginia and elsewhere, left over from the Cold War -- but they could only accommodate a few hundred or at most a few thousand government and military VIPs, and I don't think they're intended for long-term residence. For more extensive preparations . . . I guess we'll have to consult Dr. Strangelove! :)

[Bryan Ekers]

We cannot allow a mine shaft gap!

[BrainGlutton]

From the article linked in the OP:

"We don't want to be sensationalist about this, but it's going to happen. We just can't say exactly when," said Professor Self.

"But we have just had a natural disaster affecting hundreds of thousands of people. Now is the time to be thinking about this."

Yellowstone is the largest volcanic system in North America. The area's cauldrons of bubbling mud and roaring geysers attract nearly three million visitors each year.

It was an obvious choice for the programme makers as the site of their super-eruption because of its location on a highly populated continent and because it has already had three of these events, which have occurred roughly 600,000 years apart from each other.

The crater from the last super-eruption, 640,000 years ago, is large enough to fit Tokyo - the world's biggest city - inside it.

That makes it sound like we're 40,000 years overdue and had better be worried -- but when you think about what "roughly" means on the relevant time-scale -- really, the next eruption could happen tomorrow, or 10,000 years from now.

I'd rather devote my worry-time to anthropogenic global warming. Even given how sketchy a picture we have of it, it's a much more imminent threat -- and we might actually able to prevent it, rather than making preparations for a few of us to survive it.

[Duckster]

Volcano winter perhaps?

The impact of volcanoes on the Earth System was dramatically demonstrated in 1991 by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. The June 1991 eruptions of Pinatubo have had near-global effects on weather and climate via the introduction of sulfur dioxide and aerosols into the atmosphere. This eruption represents the second largest volcanic eruption this century, second only to Mt. Katmai (Alaska) in 1912. The materials injected into the stratosphere by Mt. Pinatubo circled the globe in 3 weeks, and covered about 42% of the Earth's surface in only two months. Satellite observations made two years after the eruption show that this aerosol layer still exists, and that many parts of the world experienced a drop in average temperature of approximately 0.5 degrees C in 1992 compared to the 30-year average. The cold, snowy weather in New Zealand in late 1992, the severe storm damage caused by hurricanes such as Andrew and Iniki in the fall of 1992, and the heavy rains in the Midwest of the USA in the summer of 1993 have all been linked to the atmospheric effects of the eruption of Pinatubo. Source: http://eos.higp.hawaii.edu/education/slide_set1/

Eruptions of the Yellowstone volcanic system have included the two largest volcanic eruptions in North America in the past few million years; the third largest was at Long Valley in California and produced the Bishop ash bed. The biggest of the Yellowstone eruptions occurred 2.1 million years ago, depositing the Huckleberry Ridge ash bed. These eruptions left behind huge volcanic depressions called “calderas” and spread volcanic ash over large parts of North America (see map[/ur]). If another large caldera-forming eruption were to occur at Yellowstone, its effects would be worldwide. Thick ash deposits would bury vast areas of the United States, and injection of huge volumes of volcanic gases into the atmosphere could drastically affect global climate. Fortunately, the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption in the near future. In fact, the probability of any such event occurring at Yellowstone within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low.

-- snip --

Explosive eruptions are best compared by recalculating the volume of erupted volcanic ash and pumice in terms of the original volume of molten rock (magma) released. On this basis, the 585 cubic miles (mi3) of magma that was erupted from Yellowstone 2.1 million years ago (Ma) was nearly 6,000 times greater than the volume released in the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington, which killed 57 people and caused damage exceeding $1 billion. Even the 1815 Tambora, Indonesia, eruption—the largest on Earth in the past two centuries—was more than five times smaller than the smallest of Yellowstone’s three great prehistoric eruptions at 1.3 Ma. Source: [url]http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/ (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/images/fs2005-3024_fig_12.jpg )

The BBC special is based on the Yellowstone Supervolcano and will be repeated on the Discovery Channel in April.

Expect a supervolcano event to change everything. Politics would be the least of our worries.

[silenus]

If it happens, it happens. There isn't a thing you can do to stop it, so why bother worrying? If it all blows up, I'll just grab the 9mm and prey on my neighbors for a few years. :D

[Jojo]

If you think about it though, there seems to be a hole in their reasoning. They say that these eruptions are on a cycle of about 600 000 years. However the first one happened 2.1 million years ago, the second one happened 1.2 million years ago and then the third one happened 640 000 years ago.

So, in actual fact, we've only had one 600 000 year gap - between eruptions 2 and 3. There's not enough evidence to say there is a "cycle" if there's only been one gap of the requisite size. You can't form a cycle theory based on only one event.

The previous gap (between eruptions 1 and 2) was 900 000 years. Was there an eruption before number 1? In any case, since we've got two gaps, one of 900 000 years and then one of 600 000 years, could you not make an argument that the next eruption should happen 300 000 years later? But that would have been 300 000 years ago. There just doesn't seem to be enough evidence to support a cycle theory (and being precise about the time frame).

[BrainGlutton]

Old British joke:

GENTLEMAN: Hodges, I've just bought these saplings and I want you to plant them on the grounds tomorrow afternoon.

GARDENER: Yes, sir. But you ought to know, this kind of tree takes thirty years to grow to maturity.

GENTLEMAN: In that case, plant them tomorrow morning!

[SuaSponte]

If it happens, it happens. There isn't a thing you can do to stop it, so why bother worrying? If it all blows up, I'll just grab the 9mm and prey on my neighbors for a few years. :D

Make sure you cook them well, and only eat the healthiest ones. Undercooked human flesh is just brimming with pathogens that are evolved to infect humans (which is why they are in your dinner in the first place).

Sua

[BrotherCadfael]

We cannot allow a mine shaft gap!General "Buck" Turgidson: Doctor, you mentioned the ratio of ten women to each man. Now, wouldn't that necessitate the abandonment of the so-called monogamous sexual relationship, I mean, as far as men were concerned?

Dr. Strangelove: Regrettably, yes. But it is, you know, a sacrifice required for the future of the human race. I hasten to add that since each man will be required to do prodigious... service along these lines, the women will have to be selected for their sexual characteristics which will have to be of a highly stimulating nature.

Ambassador de Sadesky: I must confess, you have an astonishingly good idea there, Doctor.

[An Arky]

You'd have to have a pretty damn big "vicinity of Wyoming" for there to be 25 million people in it.

Just sayin'.

[Loopydude]

Ambassador de Sadesky: I must confess, you have an astonishingly good idea there, Doctor.

"...we'd stand a damn good chance of catchin' 'em with their pants down!"

[SteveG1]

There may be potential superplumes all over the place. A few that I remember (or suspect) both past and present are:
Yellowstone
part of Idaho (don't know the name of the plume)
the Deccan Traps
the Siberian traps
Long Valley
the Africa / South America rift (now the mid Atlantic ridge)
There may be another one hiding under Vesuvius.

I'm in California - supposedly just outside the Wyoming kill zone. But, given the amount of devastation, I'm not sure what sort of life it would be afterwards. If it's some sort of post apocalyptic Mad Max thing, I want one of those cool cars.

[FinnAgain]

The future, and you. (http://images.amazon.com/images/P/B00004ZBSX.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg)

[Loopydude]

Nah, it's more like this. (http://onastick.net/sitz/images/)

[SteveG1]

Has a "supervolcano" like this ever happened before in human history? In Earth's history?
Super volcanoes (or plumes) did happen. There are lava fields in South America that match the rock in Africa (from when the continents split apart). There are the lava fields in Siberia and India (the Traps). There is the geothermal activity in Yellowtone and talk about how the whole area may be bulging up again. There are fossils from around the time Yellowstone exploded that show evidence that animals slowly choked to death on ash, and they match the expected wind patterns. There are old volcanoes in California from the Long Valley episode.

I don't think any happened in human history, but just maybe there was at least a big honking volcano. There was a big volcanic event just about the time early humans began colonizing Europe and Asia. According to some geneticists, modern humans should have more genetic diversity than they have, based on how long humans have been around. By backtracking, they estimated some date which coincides with a big event in southeast Asia. According to them, it was the near extinction of humanity. My problem is, I can't remember the details or the approximate date.

[GomiBoy]

Guess I better look at selling the family home quick!

[Cisco]

You'd have to have a pretty damn big "vicinity of Wyoming" for there to be 25 million people in it.

Just sayin'.
That's what I was wondering. How big of a circle do you have to draw around Wyoming to get 25 million people?

And, for what it's worth, I always thought that this (http://www.futurama-madhouse.com.ar/wallpaper/Streets_of_New_New_York_1152.jpg) is what the future would look like.

[Cynical Optimist]

I'm not too worried. I've got my PipBoy (well, a PDA is close enough), a pistol, several bottlecaps, and a sharp knife to skin geckos with. All I need to do is get my hands on a Gauss rifle & I'll be all set. I'm not wearing a jumpsuit though.

[GomiBoy]

To put a straight response forward:

You're talking about an event that would kill millions, destroy large parts of the agricultural heartland of the US, do untold damage to transportation networks and communications networks, disrupt air and ground travel from coast to coast, and would take trillions upon trillions of dollars to repair the damage from, not to mention gutting an entire population of farmers and ranchers in some of the most productive agricultural areas of the US.

I would think it would impact quite considerably on America being a world leader. I would think we would need about 20 years to lick our wounds and repair the damage before we would be anything like what we are now.

[smiling bandit]

And of course, would depress the world agricultural production for years (though the addition of ash might actually enhance the soil once it all gets out of the atmosphere).

[Loopydude]

I'd suggest moving to New Zealand, except that under the vicinity of Lake Taupo is another supervolcano waiting to happen, though not as big as Yellowstone. Since it was only a few tens-of-thousands of years ago when that erupted, perhaps it would be safe for a while.

[F. U. Shakespeare]

I have a plan...

































Mein Fuhrer, I can walk!

[Bryan Ekers]

I'm not too worried. I've got my PipBoy (well, a PDA is close enough), a pistol, several bottlecaps, and a sharp knife to skin geckos with.

Well, I guess after the apocalypse, why bother with car insurance?

[Shalmanese]

All kidding aside, humans in general have a hard time planning for rare events that cause large amounts of damage.

According to some studies done recently, a proper meteor detection system should save something like $100,000 for every $1 spent but because the event is so improbably small, nothing is being done about it.

[Malacandra]

I need to get one thing straight: We're talking about a huge natural disaster that would leave hundreds of thousands dead, enormous damage to the infrastructure and economy, years of privation and so on, and your major concern is whether the US of A would still be calling the shots in global politics? Why?

[Ryan_Liam]

I need to get one thing straight: We're talking about a huge natural disaster that would leave hundreds of thousands dead, enormous damage to the infrastructure and economy, years of privation and so on, and your major concern is whether the US of A would still be calling the shots in global politics? Why?

Iraq and Afghanistan of course, duh. And the fact America is one of the biggest contributors to the global economy?

[BrainGlutton]

I don't think any happened in human history, but just maybe there was at least a big honking volcano. There was a big volcanic event just about the time early humans began colonizing Europe and Asia. According to some geneticists, modern humans should have more genetic diversity than they have, based on how long humans have been around. By backtracking, they estimated some date which coincides with a big event in southeast Asia. According to them, it was the near extinction of humanity. My problem is, I can't remember the details or the approximate date.

You're talking about the "Toba catastrophe theory." http://www.andaman.org/book/app-r/ch5_bottleneck/textr5.htm; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory:

Within the last three to five million years, after human and ape lineages diverged from the hominid stem-line, the human line produced a variety of human species. According to the Toba catastrophe theory, a massive volcanic eruption changed the course of human history by severely reducing the human population (called a 'bottleneck'). Around 75,000 years ago the Toba caldera in Indonesia erupted with a force three thousand times more powerful than Mount St. Helens.

According to Ambrose, this led to a decrease in the average global temperatures by as much as 15°C. This massive environmental change is believed to have created population bottlenecks in the various human species that existed at the time; this in turn accelerated differentiation of the isolated human populations, eventually leading to the end of all the other human species except for the branch that became modern humans (see volcanic winter).

Some geological evidence and computed models support the plausibility of the Toba catastrophe theory, and genetic evidence suggests that all humans alive today, despite their apparent variety, are descended from a very small population (see mitochondrial Eve). Using the average rates of genetic mutation, some geneticists have estimated that this population lived at a time coinciding with the Toba event.

According to this theory, after Toba, and when the climate and other factors permitted, humans once again fanned out from Africa migrating first to Indochina and Australia, and later to the Fertile Crescent and the Middle East. Migration routes to Asia created population centers in Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and India. Divergences in skin color appeared, due to varied melanin levels, which were adaptations to the varying UV intensities around the world. Europe became populated by migrants from the Uzbekistan region when the last ice age ended and Europe began to be more hospitable.

[SteveG1]

Brainglutton, as soon as I saw you mention Toba, I said "that's the one". You rule.