Poll: will Cheney step down as veep before 2009?

[RTFirefly]

If so, when? And who will replace him as veep?

I'm going out on a limb with: Yes, 2006, and Sen. George Allen.

Just got a hunch that the PTB are starting to see him as too much of a liability.

[YaWanna]

No. I think he's too arrogant. He'd have to be thrown out, and I don't think the Prez would do it unless his back was against the wall.

[Zeldar]

If you count death as stepping down, then yes. If not, no. The man has no shame and will outlast all attempts to oust him.

If he dies, GWB will find somebody even worse to replace him. Who that would be, I have no clue, but it will make the SCOTUS nominations look brilliant by comparison. Maybe he could persuade Newt Gingrich or Pete Rose?

[CynicalGabe]

I vote yes, he will retire gracefully, maybe for health reasons, in order to make way for Vice President (and Presidential hopeful) Condi Rice.

[Diceman]

I think a switch for Condi is pretty likely. I'm sure that the Republicans would love to able to scoop the Democrats with the first female president and the first non-white president. Plus, Rice just strikes me as someone who's been marked for a presidential run. And giving her a couple years as veep would put her in a better position politically than just being Sec of State would give her.

[Marley23]

Just got a hunch that the PTB are starting to see him as too much of a liability.
No. Cheney is the PTB, and he's worked his whole career to get to where he is. I'm sure he still has things he wants to accomplish, and he's not going to quit now as a favor to Rice or Allen.

[rjung]

You'll pry the Presidency out of his cold, dead hands.

[RealityChuck]

Not as long as he breathes. Or if Bush stops breathing, he'd take the promotion.

[elfkin477]

I vote yes, he will retire gracefully, maybe for health reasons, in order to make way for Vice President (and Presidential hopeful) Condi Rice.

My dad is hoping hard for this to happen this year, because he thinks it'll have the liberals shitting bricks over the possibility of her running in 2008 with some solid executive branch experience. :p

Personally, I see the odds of this happening about 50-50 mostly depending on his health. Although, given the media circus the hunting accident has become, it seems more likely he'll bow out. It's not a good reason, but it's a nice excuse if he wanted one.

[RTFirefly]

No. Cheney is the PTB, and he's worked his whole career to get to where he is. With all due respect, no. Cheney is certainly worth tens of millions of dollars by now, but we're in, what, a $12-trillion economy? There are corporations whose profits last year could've dropped by Cheney's net wealth and never noticed.

The people who run those corporations are the PTB, and even Cheney knows that. They have breaks they still want to push through Congress, and if Cheney's personal unpopularity is a threat to their agenda, then Cheney will be told he has to step aside, and Cheney will step aside. He'll be richly rewarded for it, too.

They also want to maximize the likelihood that someone they can trust is in the White House when whatever happens to the Bush Administration, finishes happening. Impeachment's still a considerable longshot, but if it happens, pretty much anything that can be pinned on Bush will find Cheney too. Best to get Cheney out, and their next fair-haired boy (Allen) in, just in case. And giving him the veep spot now would both make him the heir apparent, and keep him out of a tough Senate race this fall against Republican-turned-Democrat, former Navy Secretary James Webb. Virginians like that sort, and Allen, despite being the incumbent Senator and former Guv, is only ahead 49-37 at this early point.

[RTFirefly]

No matter who's pulling the strings, nobody can win the GOP nomination without sufficient cred with the Religious Right.

You think people in Southern Baptist churches are going to go for Condi? Not more than lukewarmly. And I'm not thinking in terms of her color; I'm thinking of her as an academic who, in addition to being pro-choice, is just not One Of Them.

Condi might get the veep nod, but only if the PTB haven't decided by then who they want in 2008. She's not going to be the GOP candidate.

[Frank]

No. They will have to carry him out feet first.

If that should happen, the veep pick would be somebody who has no intention of running in 2008. Maybe Jeb. :D There is no way that all the Republicans who are eyeing a wide open race will let one of their own get a leg up.

[Cervaise]

Not as long as he breathes.Or is armed.

[Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor]

If Cheney, or the guy he shot, dies...he's gone.
Otherwise, no.

[Qadgop the Mercotan]

Not as long as he breathes. Or if Bush stops breathing, he'd take the promotion.
I think Dick would see it as a demotion. He has more power behind the throne than he would have on the throne.

[rowrrbazzle]

No. Just got a hunch that the PTB are starting to see him as too much of a liability.More like wishful thinking. Of course, you aren't simply trying to spread the idea, are you?

[dalej42]

I'm thinking yes. I'd guess the retirement will come after the 2006 midterm election. They'll do it in the lame duck Senate if the Dems happen to win control. The Republicans simply don't want to go into 2008 with a brand new Republican facing a brand new Democrat. Obviously, there is no chance in Hell that Cheney will run.

Still, I'm not thinking Rice. I just don't think Rice will sell in the Solid South. Especially if the Dems get it together for 2008.

[alphaboi867]

...Condi might get the veep nod, but only if the PTB haven't decided by then who they want in 2008. She's not going to be the GOP candidate.

If Rice is appointed VP and loses the Republican nomination on account of the far right it could hurt the Republicans. The GOP isn't going to pry black voters away from the Dems by rejecting a black candidate.

[BoringDad]

If Rice is appointed VP and loses the Republican nomination on account of the far right it could hurt the Republicans. The GOP isn't going to pry black voters away from the Dems by rejecting a black candidate.Well, the right has kind of shown that it really doesn't need black voters to win control.

But to the OP... Wow. What a prediction to have to make: Which is stronger - the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy who wants to maximize chances of a Republican win in '08 or Cheney's hubris? I go with Cheney's hubris and no stepping down no matter what the scandal. They have already shown that the way to deal with scandal when your lapdogs run the house, the senate, and the press is to simply deny it, ignore it, then say "Hey look! Terrorists!"

[Marley23]

The people who run those corporations are the PTB, and even Cheney knows that. They have breaks they still want to push through Congress, and if Cheney's personal unpopularity is a threat to their agenda, then Cheney will be told he has to step aside, and Cheney will step aside.
Didn't Cheney run one of those corporations? The man has nobody to be afraid of, and he doesn't work for anybody - people want to get time with him. (If your scenario was accurate, what's the worst that would happen to him? He wouldn't get CEO and consulting gigs, and he'd have a smaller lecture audience? I'm sure he finds that possibility terrifying.)
If Cheney believes somebody else could further his agenda better than he himself could, then maybe he'd quit. But otherwise, if he's healthy, I don't see it. I think he's a person (though I've said otherwise at times) and as such, he'd want to enjoy the fruits of his labor and do what he wants to do. Why work this long and go this far, and then drop out barely halfway through your time in office?

[Carnac the Magnificent!]

Rice may not be the architect of the Iraq debacle, but she is one of its chief engineers. Iraq is slowly spinning out of control. By the time the 2008 election rolls along, the electorate will have no appetite for Rice-a-Roni even if she is the San Francisco treat. ;)

[Frank]

Folks, this is a poll. Given the subject, there's bound to be some political comment, but let's not stray into a debate, OK? Thanks.

[LVgeogeek]

If Cheney (or any veep) retires or dies while in Office The Speaker of the House (http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0101032.html), currently Dennis Hastert, would take his place.

[Plan B]

If Cheney (or any veep) retires or dies while in Office The Speaker of the House (http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0101032.html), currently Dennis Hastert, would take his place.

I don't think so.

Count me as one more vote for Cheney resigns, Condi replaces him. I saw Cheney a few weeks ago, and he just didn't look good. I absolutely can't see him as POTUS. I think he would love to resign...yesterday, in fact.

I know this isn't GD, thank God, but I'd like to briefly add that I believe Condi is pretty much a conservative Christian, and will have no trouble getting their votes.

And I believe I heard her say something blatantly political the other day - can't remember what - and started wondering if she's trying to get a little more political experience.

[alphaboi867]

If Cheney (or any veep) retires or dies while in Office The Speaker of the House (http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0101032.html), currently Dennis Hastert, would take his place.
No the Speaker of the House only falls after him in the line of presidential succesion. If Cheney and Bush dies Hastert becomes (Acting) President. If the VP dies/resigns then the POTUS can appoint (with the advice and consent of the Senate and the House) anybody who meets the constitutional qualifications.

[Diceman]

Count me as one more vote for Cheney resigns, Condi replaces him. I saw Cheney a few weeks ago, and he just didn't look good. I absolutely can't see him as POTUS.
This is an important point that many of you are forgetting. Even before the shooting, Cheney's age and poor health meant that he had no chance of getting nominated in 2008.

I agree with the suggestion that they're planning to wait until after the mid-term elections, but after the Whittington shooting, I have to wonder whether they're thinking about pushing up the timetable.

[August West]

I would love to see Condoleeza Rice become VP and run for President in '08. I'm not a Republican but I would vote for her in a second. She's absolutely BRILLIANT! What a welcome change that would be in the White House. An intelligent, academic President, wow.

[Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor]

I would love to see Condoleeza Rice become VP and run for President in '08. I'm not a Republican but I would vote for her in a second. She's absolutely BRILLIANT! What a welcome change that would be in the White House. An intelligent, academic President, wow.

Ummm...no.

The rumors I've heard, on the SDMB, no less, is that Secretary Rice is an empty suit. A nonentity, who is utterly guided by her "aides". That she is neither "brilliant", nor even competant.

[August West]

Really? She was the Provost at Stanford University for 6 years and was a professor at Stanford for 18 years. I guess Stanford has lowered their standards and I hadn't heard about it.

[Diceman]

Ummm...no.

The rumors I've heard, on the SDMB, no less, is that Secretary Rice is an empty suit. A nonentity, who is utterly guided by her "aides". That she is neither "brilliant", nor even competant.
With all due respect, using the SDMB as an authority on political rumors is only marginally better than calling up the chairman of the Democratic National Caucus and asking him for his opinions.

[dalej42]

Is it crazy of me to suggest that John McCain might actually be Bush's choice for VP?

They don't see eye to eye, obviously. Still, McCain did not run on Kerry's ticket. Also, McCain campaigned for Bush as well as spoke in his behalf during the convention. McCain wants the presidency; I have no idea if Rice really does.

McCain would be easily confirmed as VP. It would give the Republicans a strong candidate leading into 2008 as well as scare off some Democratic challengers.

[RTFirefly]

No. More like wishful thinking. Of course, you aren't simply trying to spread the idea, are you?Definitely not. Not that spreading the idea on the Dope would get it into major circulation.

I've got to agree with Atrios (http://atrios.blogspot.com/2006_02_12_atrios_archive.html#114006725610336430) when he says a Cheney resignation would be bad for the Dems. (Unlike him, I don't think it would really make a difference with respect to the country's well-being.)

[Frank]

All right, well...

Moved from IMHO to GD.

[XT]

I vote yes. I think he'll leave this year for 'health reasons'...which could actually be true. Frankly he could still wield power behind the scenes (if you think he does) even if he's not VP...if he really does have Bush so firmly under his thumb. He could step down and have Bush appoint him some kind of special advisor or something.

My guess is Rice will get the nod. Those of you who think she is an empty suit or that Republicans won't vote for her because she is black (though perhaps the pro-choice thing hits closer to home) are in denial.

-XT

[Zakalwe]

Time (http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1158966,00.html) has an interesting sidebar about the Republican primary and the front-runner. As with just about all things political, follow the money.

[Elendil's Heir]

Very, very unlikely. He likes being the Veep, likes being the power behind the throne, and seems impervious to public opinion (I think his approval rating is in the mid-20s right now). He has a constituency of one, and Dubya, for all his many faults, is very loyal. I suspect that only the Grim Reaper will get Cheney out of the Vice Presidency before January 20, 2009.

[BobLibDem]

You'd have to pry the vice presidency away from his cold, dead fingers. Assuming he's above room temperature, he'll be on the stand in 2009 when President Gore is sworn in.

This Condi Rice thing just isn't going to happen. I think there's just enough racism and sexism in the US to keep this from being realistically possible. Not to mention she has just as much warmth and personality as Cheney, and is tied to close to Bush and that stupid war(s) of his.

[black rabbit]

If the health problems haven't stopped him yet, they're not gonna stop him before 2009. He's had at least one heart attack since taking office already.

I doubt an impeachment or criminal indictment would stop him, either.

[Clothahump]

Get real.

Why the hell should he?

[RTFirefly]

My guess is Rice will get the nod. Those of you who think she is an empty suit or that Republicans won't vote for her because she is black (though perhaps the pro-choice thing hits closer to home) are in denial. I don't know if I'm one of those you're referring to, but the Southern cultural conservatives, including the religious right, won't vote for her because of the cultural differences: she's not One Of Them for reasons that have much less to do with her skin color than for the same reasons that anybody who was a Stanford professor and dean for most of her adult life wouldn't be seen as One Of Them.

Her race is the only reason we're having this conversation. If she were a white of either sex, nobody would be even talking about her and 2008.

[RTFirefly]

Time (http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1158966,00.html) has an interesting sidebar about the Republican primary and the front-runner. As with just about all things political, follow the money.That's interesting, but despite McCain's decision in June 2004 to start sucking up to Bush and the PTB, it's hard to see that he's going to get that far with the people with the primary votes.

Of course, I know how things will go: there's be a gradual upswing of Dobson and CBN and other 'Christian' media saying nice things about McCain, and then by late 2007, they'll crank it into high gear to convince the believers that McCain's their sort of Christian.

Might even work.

[toadspittle]

No, he'll never leave. I bet there's a secret executive order that requires his dead body to be stuffed and mounted in the oval office for the remainder of GWB's presidency.

[Merijeek]

The only way Cheney won't be veep in January 2009 will be if he gets wheeled out of DC on a gurney...

-Joe

[XT]

I don't know if I'm one of those you're referring to, but the Southern cultural conservatives, including the religious right, won't vote for her because of the cultural differences: she's not One Of Them for reasons that have much less to do with her skin color than for the same reasons that anybody who was a Stanford professor and dean for most of her adult life wouldn't be seen as One Of Them.

*caviot* I'm not a Republican, nor do I play one on TV.

That said I conceed that while you are correct that SOUTHERN cultural conservatives might agree with you that she is not 'One Of Them'(tm), fortunately Southern cultural conservatives don't make up the entire Republican party. For that matter, I'm unclear if they are even in the majority. The Republicans have been able to successfully weld multiple factions into a (reasonably) cohesive whole. This whole is made up of may different and even divergent factions.

I think that Condi WOULD appeal to several of these factions if she chose to run (and if no big black mark is made against her between now and then). Further, I think that slipping her into the VP slot between now and when Bush leaves would in effect make her the heir apparent, putting her firmly into the publics eye.

Finally, assuming she wins the presidential nomination (I don't think she will...my money is on someone like McCain...I see Condi as MAYBE a good VP choice), those Southern cultural conservatives will fall into line come voting time...especially if you run Gore or another Kerry (or gods forbid Kerry himself). While SHE might not be 'One Of Them'(tm), THEY certainly aren't. And like GW himself Condi would be the lesser of two weasles.

Her race is the only reason we're having this conversation. If she were a white of either sex, nobody would be even talking about her and 2008.

I suppose that depends on if you think her current position was achieved solely on the fact that she is a female and black.

-XT

[Menocchio]

Another thing Rice has against her is that she's never been elected to anything. One could hold that her experience at actually governing is sufficient, but at winning an election? Yes, she'd have the GOP machine holding her hand and calling the shots, but running for president ould be a baptism by fire.

Many Republican primary voters will enter the booths with one question looming on their mind: can this person beat the Democratic candidate? I don't know if they'd be confident in her ability to do it.

[cmkeller]

xtisme:

I suppose that depends on if you think her current position was achieved solely on the fact that she is a female and black.

I don't think that's true of her current position as Secretary of State. She was an expert on foreign policy before entering public service, and the two public positions she's held have been entirely foreign-policy based, so she's well qualified for them. But I do think that her race and gender are responsible for her position as presumptive front-runner for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination if she decides to run. She doesn't have experience as an executive, she hasn't methodically risen through party ranks, she's not a war hero(ine) and she doesn't have any background that includes domestic policy at all. How does that translate to great buzz for a run at the Presidency, if you don't think her race asnd gender are a factor?

[BrainGlutton]

I think a switch for Condi is pretty likely. I'm sure that the Republicans would love to able to scoop the Democrats with the first female president and the first non-white president. Plus, Rice just strikes me as someone who's been marked for a presidential run. And giving her a couple years as veep would put her in a better position politically than just being Sec of State would give her.

NO WAY. The Pub leaders might want to groom Rice for the presidency, but the party's mass base, as reconstituted after Nixon's "Southern strategy," will never accept her or any African-American on the ticket.

[BoringDad]

That's interesting, but despite McCain's decision in June 2004 to start sucking up to Bush and the PTB, it's hard to see that he's going to get that far with the people with the primary votes.Even if McCain could get nominated, he'd be a hard sell to win. Moderate Democrats loved him last election, but now he's seen as a wishy washy Bush suck-up. Had he stuck to his guns he would have been the big winner in a general election, but now? Pretty tough call.

[XT]

NO WAY. The Pub leaders might want to groom Rice for the presidency, but the party's mass base, as reconstituted after Nixon's "Southern strategy," will never accept her or any African-American on the ticket.

Well, you are certainly entitled to your opinion. Myself I think its a steamy pile of horseshit (to be clear I talking about this attitude towards the Republican 'mass base'), but thats just MY opinion. Personally I think if Mr. Powell had run prior to 2000 not only would he have won the nomination but probably the presidency as well. JMHO of course...YMMV.

She doesn't have experience as an executive, she hasn't methodically risen through party ranks, she's not a war hero(ine) and she doesn't have any background that includes domestic policy at all. How does that translate to great buzz for a run at the Presidency, if you don't think her race asnd gender are a factor?

Nope, she is no war hero(ine), nor has she paid her dues as a career politician. True enough. But she has been rather widely in the publics eye, has been central to some of the far reaching events taking place since 9/11, etc. I think that puts her in the 'war hero'/'famous' folks who really have no creds as carreer politicians but are still electable.

Also her race and gender don't hurt (despite some highly prejudiced comments about the Republican 'mass' to the contrary)...IMHO. :p I'm not so sure that a white male who has been in the public eye and through the things Condi has wouldn't also have visions of the Presidency despite lack of creds...but I conceed that the buzz and anything it translates also comes from the fact she is black and female.


-XT

[Lynwood Slim]

I vote yes, he will retire gracefully, maybe for health reasons, in order to make way for Vice President (and Presidential hopeful) Condi Rice.

I agree and hope so.

[BoringDad]

Well, you are certainly entitled to your opinion. Myself I think its a steamy pile of horseshit (to be clear I talking about this attitude towards the Republican 'mass base'), but thats just MY opinion.Are you upset that they have the attitude that the Republican base has a central viewpoint, or the implication that that viewpoint is racist?