UBS Calls the World Cup: And the Winner Is ...

[ColonelDax]

Italy (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060426/20060426005621.html?.v=1), toppling Brazil in the final after the Netherlands and Argentina lose in the semis, assuming one believes an investment bank's opinion about the World Cup. :dubious: Having said that, the UBS simulation did correctly forecast about 90% of semifinal winners in the nine most recent World Cups when it was backtested, according to the article.

[Cliffy]

Italy's my team, so I'm quite happy to accept this prediction.

--Cliffy

[Szlater]

According to the UBS simulation, further results will be as follows: Germany will lose to Argentina in the 3rd round and Italy will beat France at the same stage. They will be closely followed by the Netherlands, who will send England home. In the fourth pairing, the Brazilians will dominate the Spaniards. The semi-finals will then be down to the favorites: the Netherlands will draw the short straw against the Brazilians, the Italians will beat Argentina. In the final, the Brazilians will be forced to accept the fact that the Italians are the better team in this tournament.

Using the BBC Predictor (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/shared/spl/hi/predictor/html/football/world_cup_06/default.stm#)

That would take the following set of results in the group stages:

Group A - Germany 2nd
Group B - Sweden 1st, England 2nd
Group C - Argentina 1st, Holland 2nd
Group D - Doesn't matter
Group E - Italy 1st
Group F - Brazil 1st
Group G - France 1st
Group H - Spain 1st

Personally I think that there's very little chance that Germany will come second in their group, I think that Poland will likely take 2nd, and Germany will come top.

In addition to that, I don't think a German team that can only come 2nd in Group A can possibly beat a Swedish team who win Group B.

Anyway, their simulation is inaccurate. Wayne Roooooo-ney is back on the England squad for the second round. Re-run the sim UBS!