North Korea Announces Planned Test Of Nuclear Weapon.

[Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor]

The Article--

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/10/03/nkorea.nuclear/index.html

(CNN) -- North Korea, citing American belligerence and pressure, said Tuesday it will conduct a nuclear test.

The North Korean Foreign Ministry issued the comment in a statement published by the Korean Central News Agency, or KCNA -- the communist country's official news agency.

"The field of scientific research of the DPRK will in the future conduct a nuclear test under the condition where safety is firmly guaranteed," the statement said.

...

A date and time for the test was not issued.

Well, we knew it was going to happen eventually.

Officially, we invaded the wrong country.


And, deep in my heart, I find myself asking: Is this how it was when Rome fell?

[athelas]

Yeah. Basically, the northern barbarians started testing nukes.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to go to the Colisseum to watch a few Christians get torn to shreds.

Hail Caesar!

[Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor]

A translated summary of the Nork Korean statement.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/5402292.stm

[ShibbOleth]

Am I the only one that half expects them to blow up themselves up when they test this?

[carnivorousplant]

Am I the only one that half expects them to blow up themselves up when they test this?

One does wonder where they would test it.

[Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor]

One does wonder where they would test it.

Mid-ocean is a possibility.

Or the islands to the east of North Korea.

[lokij]

They can test to their little communist heart's content. We already know they have fissile material and can kludge together a bomb, testing one just means they're going to use up some of that plutonium we're worried about.. make some of their already worthless arid country uninhabitable for awhile and piss off China even more. It's delivery systems that matter and to date they haven't got one that can threaten us substantially. Invading North Korea was never an option. Even if we wanted to we couldn't and their little obsession with spending what little hard currency they have on WMD doesn't change that a bit. Invading North Korea would mean leveling Seoul and China would not stand for it.

This is desperation, Kim Jong Ill doesn't have too many other scary ways to extort money from the world left.. if we yawn at this the way we have (in my mind intelligently) been downplaying his other tantrums lately he's going to be sweating bullets. He really REALLY needs outside aid to prop up the little bizzaro world he's got going on there... and I think it's starting to sink in that we're not going to cave just because he's got "The Bomb". Think about this... to date any of our negotiations have been based on the pleasant fiction that NK doesn't actually HAVE nuclear weapons, just the capability to make them.. if he tests one, well... he can either disarm, use one or just sit on it. Disarming means, effectively.. the end of his regime it would mean outside inspectors, humiliation and untold wasted resources with a probable military coup to follow. Sitting on it, the same... only slower... because we're damn sure not going to give him aid to keep him from getting a weapon he's proven he already has... if his military elite start feeling the crunch as badly as his poor citizenry, they're not going to wait long before ousting him. If he uses one, NK ceases to be a problem... except environmentally.

[Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor]

They can test to their little communist heart's content. We already know they have fissile material and can kludge together a bomb, testing one just means they're going to use up some of that plutonium we're worried about.. make some of their already worthless arid country uninhabitable for awhile and piss off China even more. It's delivery systems that matter and to date they haven't got one that can threaten us substantially. Invading North Korea was never an option. Even if we wanted to we couldn't and their little obsession with spending what little hard currency they have on WMD doesn't change that a bit. Invading North Korea would mean leveling Seoul and China would not stand for it.

This is desperation, Kim Jong Ill doesn't have too many other scary ways to extort money from the world left.. if we yawn at this the way we have (in my mind intelligently) been downplaying his other tantrums lately he's going to be sweating bullets. He really REALLY needs outside aid to prop up the little bizzaro world he's got going on there... and I think it's starting to sink in that we're not going to cave just because he's got "The Bomb". Think about this... to date any of our negotiations have been based on the pleasant fiction that NK doesn't actually HAVE nuclear weapons, just the capability to make them.. if he tests one, well... he can either disarm, use one or just sit on it. Disarming means, effectively.. the end of his regime it would mean outside inspectors, humiliation and untold wasted resources with a probable military coup to follow. Sitting on it, the same... only slower... because we're damn sure not going to give him aid to keep him from getting a weapon he's proven he already has... if his military elite start feeling the crunch as badly as his poor citizenry, they're not going to wait long before ousting him. If he uses one, NK ceases to be a problem... except environmentally.


All he has to do is give one away, free.


Then he strikes at us. It arrives in a crate, on the back of a pickup truck, crossing the Mexican Border at midnight.

We couldn't even trace it to him.

[lokij]

All he has to do is give one away, free.


Then he strikes at us. It arrives in a crate, on the back of a pickup truck, crossing the Mexican Border at midnight.

We couldn't even trace it to him.


I wouldn't bet on that, there are ways to trace things and if there was even a Rumor a hint of a whiff that the bomb did come from NK, well.. you saw what happened to Afghanistan and that was a conventional attack only tangentially sponsered by the Taliban. Even if he DID do that, what exactly would he gain? Sure,.. he'd strike a blow against the US for the glorious people's revolution... but... he'd sure as HELL never actually SAY he did.. and keep in mind this is NOT a guy that's given to subtlety or keeping his mouth shut. I mean, I guess he'd get whatever money people could pony up for the bomb itself but in the global scheme of things that's small potatoes. If he started spending alot of mystery money we'd certainly want to know where that came from, especially in light of LA going up in nuclear flames. Basically, I'm not worried about this.

[Count Blucher]

They're 7 for 7 on missile failures, thanks to an emergency lift off of a shuttle and some nicely aimed masering. Not sure that will work on a nuke test though...

[ShibbOleth]

I'm kind of picturing Kim Jong Il, as Yosemite Sam, jumping up and down on the pointy end of a nuke while wondering aloud why the thing won't detonate...

[appleciders]

They're 7 for 7 on missile failures, thanks to an emergency lift off of a shuttle and some nicely aimed masering. Not sure that will work on a nuke test though...
What on earth are you talking about?

[Count Blucher]

There was an unsubstantiated rumor that the shuttle that rushed through pre-check right before NK's missile tests this past spring carried a maser...an item that harks back to the old SDI program. Supposedly, maser (I'll leave it to the tech folks to explain the exact difference between it and a laser) can down a launched missile.

History shows that the shuttle did go through one hell of a hurried launch right before those tests and if memory serves, even launched in the middle of a storm.

And NK had an unprecedented 7 for 7 missile failures.

Hmmm.

Of course, it was only a rumor...

And I have no idea how to ruin an above or below ground nuclear test from space.

[carnivorousplant]

Wouldn't the Pentagon also want to know if the Korean missiles worked?
:)

[jjimm]

With no more credientials other than having been a horrified, fascinated, and perplexed observer of NK for the past 12 years, since a friend of mine smuggled a movie camera in and filmed the place, I think lokij has it absolutely right.

That said, KJI is insane in ways we can only but imagine; all western strategic analyses of NK I've seen have been based on a theory that the country's strategies are rational. They're not.

[alphaboi867]

...That said, KJI is insane in ways we can only but imagine; all western strategic analyses of NK I've seen have been based on a theory that the country's strategies are rational. They're not.

South Korea and Japan are so fucked if Kim gets suicidal.

[ASAKMOTSD]

We can hope that they test them on Iran's nuclear facilities, I suppose.

[The Great Sun Jester]

[QUOTE=Count Blucher]They're 7 for 7 on missile failures, thanks to an emergency lift off of a shuttle and some nicely aimed masering. QUOTE]
You freak. The Shuttle is used for initiating earthquakes. The maser is located on The Hubble.


Your foil hat on too tight?

[Tuckerfan]

There was an unsubstantiated rumor that the shuttle that rushed through pre-check right before NK's missile tests this past spring carried a maser...an item that harks back to the old SDI program. Supposedly, maser (I'll leave it to the tech folks to explain the exact difference between it and a laser) can down a launched missile. Nah, they used a paser. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=390912)

I heard an interview on the BBC with a North Korean spokesman about this mess. The North Korean's response was basically, "Fuck it. What the hell else are we supposed to do? We're gonna set one off and you guys are going to suck on it." Then, he hung up on the interviewer. This isn't looking at all good.

[ralph124c]

OK, suppose NK manages to build a bomb, and sets it off underground (I can't imagine that they would be so foolish as to try an atmospheric test). So what? Does it mean anything? Of course, if i were a japanese, I might be a little worried..

[Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor]

An atmospheric test is a very real likelyhood, if done on an offshore island.

It would be very, very noticable if successful, possibly lighting the night sky as far North as Japan, & obviously as far South as Seoul.

If the fallout reaches South Korea or Japan, & starts a panic, all the better, from Krazy Kim's viewpoint.

[lokij]

An atmospheric test is a very real likelyhood, if done on an offshore island.

It would be very, very noticable if successful, possibly lighting the night sky as far North as Japan, & obviously as far South as Seoul.

If the fallout reaches South Korea or Japan, & starts a panic, all the better, from Krazy Kim's viewpoint.


Doubtful, placing another country in the path of fallout would be an act of war. The likely location for the underground test has been known for some time, check out this link.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/kilju-punggye-yok.htm

[carnivorousplant]

Doubtful, placing another country in the path of fallout would be an act of war.

Are you sure about that? I recall a Chinese test in 1980 and seeing a track of the fallout over the USA.

[lokij]

Are you sure about that? I recall a Chinese test in 1980 and seeing a track of the fallout over the USA.


Tracking relatively minute increases in background radiation attributable to testing halfway across the world is one thing. If North Korea deliberately conducts an atmospheric test and does so in such a way as to maximize the amount and deadliness of the fallout to cross border populations, I would think that would be a clear act of war. It would be using a radiological weapon under the thin guise of a nuclear test. I don't think an underground test would be considered even remotely as provocative, nor necessarily an atmospheric test provided the principle fallout was contained within North Korean borders, anything else though is on very shakey ground.

[Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor]

Doubtful, placing another country in the path of fallout would be an act of war.


I don't know anybody who would step up to that thar "line in the sand" , if'n they did, buckaroo.

[ralph124c]

An atmospheric test is a very real likelyhood, if done on an offshore island.

It would be very, very noticable if successful, possibly lighting the night sky as far North as Japan, & obviously as far South as Seoul.

If the fallout reaches South Korea or Japan, & starts a panic, all the better, from Krazy Kim's viewpoint.
Nope, this is totally wrong. What the little tinpot WANTs is to extort money from the US, Japan, South Korea. If we all ignore him, he will be overthrown. :mad:

[Tuckerfan]

Nope, this is totally wrong. What the little tinpot WANTs is to extort money from the US, Japan, South Korea. If we all ignore him, he will be overthrown. :mad:
Or he'll invade South Korea, which has the largest and busiest shipyards in the world (not to mention oodles of electronics factories).

[lokij]

Or he'll invade South Korea, which has the largest and busiest shipyards in the world (not to mention oodles of electronics factories).

He can no more effectively invade South Korea than we can invade North Korea. He has the power to destroy South Korea's economy via conventional artillery attack and guerrilla hit and run tactics, but in no way shape or form does he have the equipment, logistics or support from allies to successfully invade and hold any portion of South Korea and come out ahead. South Korea has a large, advanced and capable military of it's own in addition to allied support from the US. They also have little things like more than a couple weeks supply of fuel and food on hand and the capability to buy more as needed in a wartime economy. In an unprovoked attack by North Korea using conventional military forces, South Korea would win and there would be a unified Korean penninsula, albeit at great cost.

[Tuckerfan]

He can no more effectively invade South Korea than we can invade North Korea. He has the power to destroy South Korea's economy via conventional artillery attack and guerrilla hit and run tactics, but in no way shape or form does he have the equipment, logistics or support from allies to successfully invade and hold any portion of South Korea and come out ahead. South Korea has a large, advanced and capable military of it's own in addition to allied support from the US. They also have little things like more than a couple weeks supply of fuel and food on hand and the capability to buy more as needed in a wartime economy. In an unprovoked attack by North Korea using conventional military forces, South Korea would win and there would be a unified Korean penninsula, albeit at great cost.
All absolutely correct, but Kim crossing the DMZ (no doubt thinking that his forces will be greeted as liberators) will send the global economy in the toilet. Damage to the shipyards will harm it even more.

[Count Blucher]

All absolutely correct, but Kim crossing the DMZ (no doubt thinking that his forces will be greeted as liberators) will send the global economy in the toilet. Damage to the shipyards will harm it even more.

Interesting timing, given that the US armed forces are currently spread thin and also require major capital improvements (the actions of the past 5 years have depreciated certain equipment beyond their reasonable life expectancy as well as exhausted reserve supplies of certain other items needed for ground combat).

Of course this is all 'tin foil hat' nonsense in any event. No sane person would ever willingly engage their country in a land war in asia, as victory is not possible.

[lokij]

All absolutely correct, but Kim crossing the DMZ (no doubt thinking that his forces will be greeted as liberators) will send the global economy in the toilet. Damage to the shipyards will harm it even more.


Yep, and how will this help him? What will he gain? What is the likelyhood his orders would actually be followed by his military commanders if it came down to something so drastic? I mean.. he COULD decide tomorrow to abdicate, cede the nation to South Korea and go live the sweet life as dictator in exile in perpetuity in beautiful Cuba enjoying his stashed millions.. but the likelyhood is very small. :p

[Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor]

Yep, and how will this help him? What will he gain? What is the likelyhood his orders would actually be followed by his military commanders if it came down to something so drastic? I mean.. he COULD decide tomorrow to abdicate, cede the nation to South Korea and go live the sweet life as dictator in exile in perpetuity in beautiful Cuba enjoying his stashed millions.. but the likelyhood is very small. :p

Right now, Kim may be under pressure by those very same military commanders to solve his problems by invasion.

All or nothing, one roll of the dice.

His country is falling apart...in a few years, he loses anyway, after agricultural & economic collapse.

And you know the old saying: When the only tool you have is a Hammer, everything looks like a nail.