Why do Casino's offer Blackjack?

[MadHatter]

If the game can be beaten?

[friedo]

It can't be "beaten." The odds are not in your favor. You can do well by counting cards, which is not strictly illegal, but it will likely get you thrown out.

It's also extremely difficult since most casinos use four to six decks when dealing blackjack.

[MadHatter]

I read in an article in Ralph magazine about a card counter who claims to have an advantage over the casino, and he travels the world playing blackjack. He claims to have edge of around 1%.

[Tymp]

Well, he’d better keep his day job as a gambler ‘cause he’ll never make it as a mathematician.

[MadHatter]

Well if it can't be beaten, why do casino's kick card counters out of their venue's?

[Tymp]

Okay . . . It can’t be beaten if you play by the rules. Happy?

[starfish]

Because they can, and it improves their profit.

Each hand of blackjack is supposed to be played on its own. Historically, the dealers just don't bother to shuffle each time.

To me, since the casino chooses not to shuffle, counting cards should be allowed. It is no different than other games where knowing what cards have been played is important. This assumes that shuffling would be required anytime a new player joins. You would not want to put new players at a disadvantage.

[Engineer Don]

As I understand it, the card counters bet smallat the start of a shoe, and then if the count determines it is favourable, they bet larger. The table limits prevent this from becoming too abused, and if a dealer notices a person changing his bets frequently, they can put the "shuffle" card about half way into the shoe, rather than the roughly two-thirds they use normally. In other words, counting can give a person a temporary small advantage, but when the house notices it can counter it effectivly. The house still makes lots of money on blackjack, so it will keep offering it.

[MadHatter]

So if you count the cards, CAN it be beaten? Yes or No?

[Engineer Don]

I should also note that if the house sees a shoe become very favourable to the players, the dealer might start "accidentally" flipping cards, or a card might get stuck and ripped, or they might decide the cards are too old and it is time to replace the decks with new ones. I haven't seen this done, and I don't think it is standard practice, but the casino's do have some ability to shut a game down if it isn't going their way. They can also boot a person out if they are noticed counting cards, which they would usually do before they resorted to any of the above tactics.

[Engineer Don]

Mad Hatter - there are times when the count determines that the odds are slightly favorable to the player. So yes, if the player greatly increases their bets during these times they can have a slight advantage. The casino crew is on the lookout, however, for people do just this, and will take steps to prevent a significant gain. Don't play if you don't get a significant dollar amount of entertainment from playing.

Blackjack is gambling. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. The casino's are being built by people who know the games, the odds, and the strategies very, very, well. Since there are other casino's offering the same games, these people can choose which side of the table they play on. They choose to be on the dealer's side. They are building more casino's with the money they have won. Get the picture? It is mostly favorable to be the house. The house is the winner in Vegas. There are other winners, but they are small token winners by comparison to the house.

I remember hearing about monkeys that were taught to play checkers. When two monkeys played, the winner got a treat. Soon no monkey's would play with the best monkey players, so the best players started letting the other ones win every once in a while so they would keep playing and the best monkeys could get more treats. The House's are the best monkeys, and the players are the not-so-great monkey players.

[missbunny]

Originally posted by MadHatter
I read in an article in Ralph magazine about a card counter who claims to have an advantage over the casino, and he travels the world playing blackjack. He claims to have edge of around 1%.

I can't imagine that any casino in the world would let a guy who publicly claims to have a "system" to continue to play at its tables. I understand that most casinos make it their business to keep tabs on professional gamblers, especially the ones who proclaim that they have found a way to beat the house. Does he wear a disguise when he goes from casino to casino?

[AWB]

The one card counter's book I read (written in the early 1960's) had the following strategy. He use card counting, specifically tens and face cards. Then he'd use his counting rules to determine his bets. He'd also bet the extremes of the table: when it was very unfavorable, he'd bet $1; favorable, $50. Finally, he had run many computer simulations which determined when to stand, hit, double, and split. With the counting and computer stats, he'd get a 1-2% advantage. Taken with the extremes of his bets, he usually won big. (He also didn't drink the free drinks.)

He also played when only 1 deck was used. Now that 4, 6, and 8 deck shoes are used, counting is dilluted in its effectiveness. Also nowadays, if you start betting like he did, they'd likely watch you very closely and kick you out when they surmised that you were card-counting.

Overall, though, people don't play according to the most effective means. For example, if you had 2 queens, the computer says it's best to stay. But you are allowed to split those. It's very tempting to do so, especially if the dealer is showing, say, a 4. Thinking that 10's are likely to appear, you might think you're going to get two 20-counts if you split and that the dealer probably has a 14 that will bust with another 10. Enticing, but not worth the risk.

I've played enough to see lots of poor players. The real strategy of Blackjack is not "to get as close to 21 without busting", but "make the dealer bust". If you have 14 and the dealer shows a 4, it's best to stay and watch him bust more likely than not.

[pluto]

The first line of defense against card counters is the multiple deck shoe, which is good enough to defeat all but the very, very determined. Card counting is perfectly legal but it is illegal to take notes or keep track of cards with anything but your unaided memory.

I watched a TV show about this a long time ago and the thing that I remember is them asking one casino operator why he allowed known card counters to play. His reply was that they did lose occasionally to a few people but that "there are a lot of people out there who think they are card counters!"

My experience with inveterate gamblers is consistent with his comment. I know several otherwise rational people who believe they have an unbeatable system for winning at <insert casino game here>. Deluding yourself that you can count cards well enough to increase your odds significantly is just one example of these "unbeatable" systems.

[MadHatter]

Originally posted by missbunny


I can't imagine that any casino in the world would let a guy who publicly claims to have a "system" to continue to play at its tables. I understand that most casinos make it their business to keep tabs on professional gamblers, especially the ones who proclaim that they have found a way to beat the house. Does he wear a disguise when he goes from casino to casino?

This guy is an Aussie, and the magazine I read it in was Australian. I doubt he would be recognised overseas, but he said mst Australian casino's recognise him.

[Fyodor]

I counted cards seriously for more than ten years. My take in all that time was about $50,000. As one pit boss said to me "if you want to sit in this place all day on one of those ratty little stools be my guest".

In the book "Comp City" an old Vegas hand said "Counting cards is a tough hard grind best left to those who do not have a respectable way to make a living." Wise words.

I enjoyed winning but it is brutally hard work, very stressful and unforgiving, and it will get you kicked out. The mathematical cycles you must endure are appalling. When I went to Vegas I could usually tell within ten minutes if there was another card counter at the table, so obviously it's almost impossible to hide what you are doing from the casino staff.

If I had known how hard it was going to be to become a proficient card counter I would not have taken it on. I saw a few card counters lose their life savings during my career.

One time I was unemployed and hadn't played blackjack in months. I went to the casino with $500 and proceeded to win. For six months I played 20 hours a week and had $25,000 profit. This was cool, but then for the next three months I was on a down cycle and lost about $9,000. This was not so cool.

Then the local casinos switched to six decks and started cutting thick on counters and I quit.

This is a very serious undertaking and not a casual parlour trick. My advice is stay away from it. I never go to casinos anymore and am a lot happier. I make enough money and don't need to moonlight. I'd hate to turn 65 counting cards in a casino, have an extra few hundred thousand dollars in lifetime winnings, and be wondering where my life went. If I'm travelling I might drop into a casino for an evening. I can still play a very good game. I was in Budapest on business in 1997 and spent an evening playing blackjack. I watched the locals, chatted a little, and won $300.

Engineer Don: What you describe is called "preferential shuffling". I've seen it done. If the dealer has a rough idea of the count and thinks the remaining cards may favour the players he/she may shuffle up early. This is very arguably cheating the players but it's hard to prove.

[brad_d]

Originally posted by pluto
Card counting is perfectly legal but it is illegal to take notes or keep track of cards with anything but your unaided memory.


Is that really how it works in practice, pluto? From what I've read in the various threads on this topic here, I got the impression that they'll give you the boot if you're even suspected of counting.

[Sam Stone]

Here's the Straight Dope on Card Counting:

Card counting works because blackjack is not like craps or roulette - each hand is not an independant trial. As the cards are dealt out of the shoe, the house advantage changes depending on the exact composition of cards left.

A card counter keeps track of the cards that have gone by, and when his calculations tell him that he has an edge, he bets big. If he doesn't have an edge, he bets small or not at all. Some card counters will stand behind the table and count, and only sit down when the count shows that they have an advantage.

Card counting is NOT difficult. I could teach you to count in a weekend. 4-deck and 6-deck shoes are easier to count than single deck games, although the profit is typically not as high. Most professional card counters actually prefer multiple-deck games.

Here is a simple counting method: It involves keeping only a single number in your head. You start at zero, and as you see each card, you are going to add 1 to your count if the card is a 2-6, subtract 1 from your count if the card is a face card or an Ace, and ignore 7,8, and 9.

Once you have this number, you need to divide it by the number of decks still remaining in the shoe, to the nearest half-deck. So let's say the first player gets an A,4. The next player 4,2. The next one K,T. You get 5,6. The dealer has a 3 showing. The 'running' count is now +2. It's a 4-deck shoe, and half a deck has been dealt, so the count is 2/3.5. You don't need to work the fraction out in your head - just know that the 'true' count is somewhere between 0 and +1. You know how many decks are left by eyeballing the cards in the discard tray - counters practice getting the estimation right.

Now let's say the people hit their hands, and get a 5, 6, 4, and the dealer gets a 7 and a T. The hand is over, and the running count is now +4. The true count is just slightly under 1 (4/3.5).

Now, on the next hand, there are four more cards 2-6 than there are faces and aces. The running count is now +8, and one whole deck has gone by. The true count is therefore 8/3, or just slightly under 3.

At this point, if the game offers good rules the player will have an advantage of about .5% over the house, and you'll increase your bet somewhat. If the count goes higher, increase it some more. If it goes back down, drop back to your base bet.

To beat the house, you not only have to vary your bets in accordance to the count, you have to get about 8 times as much money on the table during high counts, at a minimum. And, you have to play perfect basic strategy before you even begin to count, and you need to learn to vary your strategy as well as your bets when the count changes. For example, you should normally hit a 16 against a dealer's 10, but if the count is positive you should stand because there are more high cards in the deck that can bust your hand.

If you play your strategy perfectly, and you are an excellent counter, you can gain as much as a 1% advantage over the house. That may not sound like much, but if you are playing 100 hands an hour at an average of $100 per hand, your profit will be $100/hr.

Two 'gotchas' here: The first is that the casino may kick you out. To get around that, you have to learn the REAL hard part about counting, which is to 'camouflage' your play. There are many ways to do that so that the casino can't easily tell what you're doing. You couple this with 'hit and run' tactics - never play in the same place for more than 45 minutes, always leave after making some plays that stand out, etc.

The other 'gotcha' is bankroll size. Even though you have the advantage over the house, there is still luck involved. The variance in blackjack is large, and it's possible for a player to have an advantage over the house but still lose over a period of a week, a month, or even a year. Rule of thumb: You should only bet a percentage of your bankroll equal to your edge. So if you have a 1% edge, you bet 1% of your bankroll. Do the math, and you'll see that you need a very large bankroll to play blackjack for any real money.

If you over-bet your bankroll, it won't grow as fast. If you bet twice as much as your edge, your bankroll will oscillate between 0 and its current value. And if you bet more than that, your bankroll WILL crash to zero, even if you have an advantage.

So... Learning to count is easy. Learning to hide the fact that you are counting is hard. If you bet small amounts (under $25 per hand on average), most casinos will leave you alone. If you want to make real money and bet more, you'd better be an expert or you're gone. If you are content to make 5 or 10 bucks an hour, you can count to your heart's content and you'll most likely be left alone.

One last thing: Counting cards is not immoral or unethical. The casinos like to pretend that it is, to discourage potential counters. But there is absolutely nothing wrong with it. If you want to talk ethics, let's talk about a casino that claims to offer a game of skill, while offering free drinks to players to make them behave stupidly and kicking out players who actually demonstrate an ability to play the game well.

[(Tim)]

Is that really how it works in practice, pluto? From what I've read in the various threads on this topic here, I got the impression that they'll give you the boot if you're even suspected of counting.

Those two statements are not inconsistent. Counting is legal (how could it not be?) and casinos can and sometimes will give you the boot for it.

They reserve the right to refuse service to anyone...

[brad_d]

Originally posted by (Tim)
Those two statements are not inconsistent. Counting is legal (how could it not be?) and casinos can and sometimes will give you the boot for it.

They reserve the right to refuse service to anyone... [/B]

Oh, I'll grant you that. As long as we all agree that the "rules" that the casino uses in this regard have little to do with Hoyle.

Basically, they give you the boot if you do too well. They run the place, so they certainly can do this, but it's important that it be understood why.

Obviously, genuine "cheating" in any of the games would certainly be grounds for ejection. The casinos would like you to think that counting cards at blackjack constitutes such as their justification for giving you the boot. Like you said, that's ridiculous.

[sqweels]

When I was playing blackjack in an Indian casino, I got distracted for a moment and didn't get my bet down in time. The dealer wouln't let me play another hand until he had gotten through that set of decks and reshuffeled. This is yet another rule casinos use to thwart counters but it really pissed me off.

[Powers106]

Forget counting for a minute...

If you play a very technically sound strategy like know when to double and when the cards are falling your way, can you make money without counting? Knowing when to play, when the dealer might be a little "too" good (any experiences with cheating dealers anyone?), or when Luck is just smiling on you?

Maybe it won't last forever, but it strikes me that you could do well by just knowing sound strategies to playing blackjack...or will the odds always catch up?

[DoctorJ]

If you play a very technically sound strategy like know when to double and when the cards are falling your way, can you make money without counting?
Short answer, no.

Long answer--what you describe is playing "basic strategy". It consists of knowing the proper play for any hand and dealer's hand--for instance, knowing that you hit a 16 against a dealer's 10. The basic strategy changes a bit based on the rules and the number of decks. When you vary that strategy (and your bet) based on what cards you've seen go by, that is "counting".

Playing correct basic strategy in most games will put you at a slight disadvantage (usually less than 1%, IIRC--I'm away from my books).

It is possible for the rules to be such that basic strategy will put the game in your favor, but you won't find many tables like that, for obvious reasons. (Last I knew, there was one at Slots-A-Fun in Vegas. Even so, the advantage is miniscule, and you'd have to be playing the right BS for those conditions to get it. I'd be willing to bet that that table still makes money.)

Dr. J

[Arjuna34]

Originally posted by brad_d
Obviously, genuine "cheating" in any of the games would certainly be grounds for ejection. The casinos would like you to think that counting cards at blackjack constitutes such as their justification for giving you the boot. Like you said, that's ridiculous. [/B]

Actual cheating, as oppposed to card counting, will most likely get you arrested, not just thrown out.

Arjuna34

[Chronos]

Quoth Powers106:
...or when Luck is just smiling on you?Lady Luck never smiles, period. Sure, you *might* win a thousand hands in a row, but you'd still have exactly the same chance of winning the next hand as any other schmo. Many people do not realize this, which is one of the main reasons that casinos can stay in business.

[wolfman]

Plus the fact that casinos love all these guys selling their video tape, and books with a 'guaranteed' method. As other people have pointed out a really skilled card counter can get a slight advantage over the house, but anybody with the skill to do that probably figured it out long before they needed to buy a tape. Most of these average schmoes just get a false sence of confidence, and are more likely to go and bet a large amount of money, thinking they have the edge. Anything that brings people to the casino is a very good thing as far as casinos are concerned.

[DoctorJ]

To answer the OP, casinos can offer blackjack because very, very few people play it at an advantage. In fact, if you sit for a while and pay attention to the other players, you'll notice that most of them don't have a good grasp of basic strategy.

I remember reading that the average house take on BJ was around 2%.

Dr. J

[RickJay]

I'm surprised nobody's really gone into the two reasons casinos actually offer blackjack.

1. It attracts customers. The only reason I ever to go a casino, ever, is to play blackjack. I don't like slot machines. I'm sure lots of people feel the same way.

Casinos want to bring in the absolute maximum possible number of potential suckers. If they can get you in for table games - and blackjack is the most popular table game - they're likelier to get you to drop money on bad odds games, like Keno or the slots.

2. The gambler's Achilles heel. If Blackjack gave the player a 1% advantage, the house would still win money. Why?

Your typical casino blackjack player is not a high stakes player; he'll usually sit down at a table where the minimum bet is such that his total purse will give him anywhere from ten to thirty hands. If you have $200 to blow - a pretty typical number - you'll sit at a $10 minimum table.

Those of you who play a lot of blackjack know your pile of chips fluctuates a lot over the course of several hours of play. It's possible for our $200 player to be up or down $200 after a couple of hours, easy.

When he's down $200, he's outta money.

When he's up $200, you know what happens? He plays until he loses it.

The tendency for players to play until they lose their money is incredibly strong; most people don't walk away. They play, they go up and down, but when they hit zero and max out the credit card, they can't play anymore. The house has more money than you do. They can absorb losses, and you'll keep playing - but when YOU get to a certain point you have to walk out and leave your money behind.

This is why casinos are legitimately fearful of big stakes players; they lose that advantage.

I don't really think the casinos give a shit about card counters, to be honest. You can win $5000 a night just by sheer luck. I've won bundles; nobody ever challenged me walking out.

[Enderw24]

Originally posted by Powers106
If you play a very technically sound strategy like know when to double and when the cards are falling your way, can you make money without counting?

What do you think counting is? It's knowing when the cards are falling your way. Without it, there's no way to know. Ignore "hot streaks." I know you're thinking about them, but there's no such thing. Cards fall the way they fall and they don't remember being kind to you last hand any more than they'll try to be kind to you on this one. I suggest reading books by David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth on the mathematical odds of gambling.

Now, as to the question as a whole, if you do no counting whatsoever, but play perfect strategy, you can break even IN THE LONG RUN. This is another thing many people don't understand about gambling and statistics in general. Anyone can be lucky. Anyone can be unlucky. The best BJ player in the world can go for months on end with one losing session after another. A person who doesn't understand that Aces count for 1 and 11 can walk out $100 richer.

In the long run, money flows from the bad players to the good players. There's just no other way. - Mike Caro.

[Sam Stone]

Rickjay: You're wrong about the 'Gambler's Achilles Heel'. The house expects to take in exactly their house vig, multiplied by the number of dollars wagered on the tables.

They get NO advantage from the fact that your bankroll is smaller than theirs. YOU may bust out of the game, but another player will take your place. As far as the casino is concerned, those ten rolls in craps could come from ten different guys who each busted their bankroll, or one rich guy.

Just another counter-intuitive aspect of gambling math.

[KevInVegas]

Someone up there said that casinos use four to six decks in a shoe. While that's true at most big places here in Vegas, especially where all the guppies hang out (on the Strip), there are places in the Downtown area (Fremont Street) and on the Boulder Strip (Sam's Town, etc) where single deck, $5 games are still quite normal. If you know what you're doing, the best place for that is Binion's Horseshoe, downtown.

The best place to sit is third base, the final place to be dealt to on the table. That gives you the best place to see the most cards before it's your turn. There's a double edged sword as to the number of folks are on the table with you. The more there are, the more cards you see, but the less hands are dealt before a shuffle.

On average, the shuffle comes up around half a deck. A table has six slots for us poor folks to offer up our hard earned scratch. If there are four or five people in the game, the general rule is two hands come out. More than that, only one hand per shuffle.

As for getting booted from a game...

Counting cards in your head is not illegal. Counting cards with the use of any aid is. If you have a computer on your leg to help you out, you're gonna get tossed and probably arrested. HOWEVER... the secret really is to be able to "get lucky." I have a friend who takes his own beer bottle in filled with water. Acts like a drunk tourist all night, goes heavy once or twice for a hundred or so, wins it, toddles off like a drunk. One day I personally watched him take about four grand from three casinos downtown. After a while, they caught on to him. All the pit bosses in town (off the strip... too hard to count six decks) recognize him and ask him not to play. That's all they can do in that case. They will let you play any other game. They reserve the right not to allow you to play if you're too drunk, whathaveya. But if you're not playing illegally, you won't get into too bad trouble.

You really wanna see folks go crazy, walk around a Strip hotel with a note pad, stop at every overhead camera, and make an x on your pad. After about three or four cameras, you'll make a new friend who's neck is the size of your thigh!

[Biotop]

It never ceases to amaze me how many people go into casino games with little or no knowledge of the strategy to win those games. Many casino games are not completely luck games, and improved skill lowers the house advantage considerably. Yet time and time again I've seen players tossing hundred dollar chips after pipe dreams.

Part of it might be a desire to experience good luck. I actually had someone tell me they trusted their intuition more than mathematics. Casinos make a killing on blackjack.

I can't understand why casinos don't offer more games where skill gives the gamblers a better chance to win. Recently the casinos in Atlantic City removed all the 20-8-7-5 joker poker video machines. Only a few years ago they removed the 20-8-7-6 machines. (20 being payout for 4 of a kind, 8 for a full house, 7 for a flush, and 5 or 6 for a straight). While the latter machines offered a 102% payback for expert play, the former machines still gave the house an edge. So why pull them? Most gamblers pay no attention to payout charts, but if they see someone win they'll jump on another machine and start throwing in their dollars. I won't play any of the new poorer payout machines. Hence they lost me and the many friends I used to drag along. Sigh.