The 20 year curse

[SevenUp]

The one where all presidents elected every 20 years die in office.
Reagan broke it, but just barely.
Ya think it'll happen this time?

[AWB]

Well, eight president's have died in office, but only one died that was not elected in a divisible-by-20 year: Zachary Taylor. Pretty eerie. Maybe Taylor died so that Reagan could life. :D

I think that since "The West Wing"'s President Bartlett didn't die last Wednesday, the real president elected this year better be careful. :D

Or maybe Reagan broke the Tecumsah Curse, as the 20-year presidential death syndrome is sometimes called.

Slight hijack: did George HW Bush have no serious assassination attempt against him? If this is true, was it because J. Danforth Quayle was his VP, and no assassin wanted to put Danny-boy in power?

[Turpentine]

It's called the Curse of Old Tippacanoe, and it has something to do with William Henry Harrison, who was the first to succumb to thise curse.

It has actually been fulfilled- every president elected in a year ending in zero has died in office-

William Henry Harrison
Zachary Taylor
Abe Lincoln
James Garfield
William McKinley
Warren G. Harding
Franklin Roosevelt
John F. Kennedy


Then there's Ronald Reagan, elected in 1980 and didn't die in office. But he got shot- and woul have died had it not been for medical science.
I always thought that science was the archenemy to magick, and curses fall under the magick category.

So it's really weird...

It makes me wonder if I should vote for the candidate that I hope will die.

Has there been a lot of talk about this?

[yabob]

Something that makes it a little less strange - some of those presidents died in later terms, or had been elected to earlier terms:

1860 - Lincoln died after the 1864 election.

1900 - McKinley had been elected in 1896 as well.

1940 - Roosevelt died after the 1944 election, and had been elected in 1932 and 1936 as well. Note that Roosevelt was a sick man, probably would not have run in '44 if there hadn't been a war on, and would not have died in office.

Garfield, Harding and Kennedy all died in their first term of office, divisible by 20.

If you take a series of events, it's usually possible to contrive strange coincidences about them after the fact. This ignores the hundreds of things that DIDN'T coincide.

It makes for good material for forums like this, though.

[yabob]

Then there's Ronald Reagan, elected in 1980 and didn't die in office. But he got shot- and woul have died had it not been for medical science.

Maybe they're atoning for Garfield. Garfield's assassin attempted a defense that Garfield died due to medical incompetence and that the wound he inflicted should not have been fatal. He had a point, as shortly after the shooting the doctors publically stated that the wound was not serious, and the president would recover. The defense didn't work.

[TampaFlyer]

It would be interesting to look up how many died in office who were elected in years NOT ending in 0. Presidential elections can only occur in years with even numbers, so 20% of those elections are in years ending in 0. As was mentioned, Lincoln was also elected in 1864. FDR was elected in 1932, 1936, & 1944, but still counts toward this "curse" because he was also elected in 1940.

[Turpentine]

Originally posted by TampaFlyer
It would be interesting to look up how many died in office who were elected in years NOT ending in 0. Presidential elections can only occur in years with even numbers, so 20% of those elections are in years ending in 0. As was mentioned, Lincoln was also elected in 1864. FDR was elected in 1932, 1936, & 1944, but still counts toward this "curse" because he was also elected in 1940.


Every single president who died in office was elected in a year ending in zero.

No other president besides the ones I listed above have died in office.

I never said that the presidents were not also elected in other years- just that all the ones who WERE elected in years ending in zeroes have died in office. It's true.

[whitetho]

Originally posted by Turpentine
Every single president who died in office was elected in a year ending in zero.

[William Henry Harrison
Zachary Taylor
Abe Lincoln
James Garfield
William McKinley
Warren G. Harding
Franklin Roosevelt
John F. Kennedy]

Please double-check the AWB post: "only one died that was not elected in a divisible-by-20 year: Zachary Taylor."

Taylor was elected in 1848, not in a zero year like the others.

[John Corrado]

Originally posted by Turpentine
I never said that the presidents were not also elected in other years- just that all the ones who WERE elected in years ending in zeroes have died in office. It's true. [/B]

I'll just point out:

Jefferson (elected 1800) and James Monroe (re-elected 1820) did not die in office. Nor did Ronald Reagan (elected 1980).

As for Garfield's death- yabob's right, the wound Garfield received was relatively minor; what killed Garfield was *months* of doctors probing the wound, trying to get the bullet out, at a point where "septic conditions" meant not specifically *trying* to get cigar ashes in the wound.


As for the odds that a dead President would have been elected in a year ending in 0- for a single-term president, it's 20%; for a two-term president it's 40%; for a four-term president it's 80%. Therefore, the "odds" that such an event occurs is .02048%. Someone better at statistics than me would have to figure out the odds of this happening including Tayor, who died but wasn't elected in a 0 year. While you're at it, see if you can figure out the odds that six of our presidents would have the first name "James". Or one of them would have the first name "Millard" and another "Woodrow". I think you'll find the odds the same.

Likewise, posit to me any seven Presidents, and likely I'll be able to come up with some "fun fact" that fits all of them.

[Johnny L.A.]

Jefferson (elected 1800) and James Monroe (re-elected 1820) did not die in office.
Jefferson and Monroe were elected before Tecumseh (allegedly) placed the (so-called) curse.

[Turpentine]

Johnny- I really like your sig.

Maybe we should just wait and see if Mr. President dies between 2001- 2004.


And everybody's right about finding coincedences between anything such as

Jesus was called the Lamb of God
Elvis had mutton-chop sideburns.


I was just pulling everything I knew about the curse out of my ass.

Ok John Corrado, here's your list:

Milliard Fillmore
Bill Clinton
Lydon Johnson
John Quincy Adams
Andrew Jackson
William Howard Taft
Chester A. Arthur


I just named 7 random presidents-

What astonishing coincedences can you come up with?

[John Corrado]

Ok John Corrado, here's your list:

Milliard Fillmore
Bill Clinton
Lydon Johnson
John Quincy Adams
Andrew Jackson
William Howard Taft
Chester A. Arthur

Dammit. If it weren't for Arthur and Clinton, I could say that each of them lost a run for the Presidency. (Fillmore in 1856 as a Know Nothing, Johnson in '60 and '68 during the primaries, Adams in 1828 and Jackson in 1824, Taft in 1912).

I'm working on it. I'll get back to you.

[Chronos]

Can anyone cite any mentions of this "curse" before Reagan getting shot and "breaking" it? Better yet, can anyone find a mention of it shortly after the death of Tecumseh?
One point to note is that, if you state the curse in a form specific enough to cover all of the exceptions, it takes longer to state the curse than it does to just name the presidents.

[bibliophage]

Tecumseh's Curse was not recognized as such in the early years. People in 1860 didn't go around saying, "Well, everybody elected in 20-year increments is going to die in office." My point is that data used to formulate the hypothesis cannot be used to prove the hypothesis. Suppose Tecumseh's Curse was first hypothesized in 1950 (I don't know when it was really, but I'd be interested in learning). Up to that time, all the data would be consistent with the hypothesis (six out of six since 1840). But since 1950, only 50% of the new data are consistent with the hypothesis (one out of two since 1950).

Btw, here is Cecil's column on Tecumseh's curse (""), in he says that in an 1836 play, Tecumseh is said to be "cursing the white man as he lay dying." I doubt very much the curse was the line, "You, and everyone after you who is elected to the Presidency in years evenly divisible by 20, will die in office."

[John Corrado]

Dammit. Alright, except for Johnson, they were all lawyers before getting involved in public service. Except for Taft and Adams, they all fought for lower tariffs. I suppose I could go for something easy like "they were all married", but I'm gonna keep checking and see what I can come up with.

[Turpentine]

Ok JC- that's pretty good for 7 completely random picks.
You seem determined to do better, but I'm already impressed.
I'm lazy and numarically deficient, but I bet there are bunch of dates between the seven that has a common denominator of some sort.

I remember hearing it argued that one of the astonishing coincedences between Lincoln and Kennedy is that they both have seven letters in their last name.
I think the numbers association is pretty weak.

I have always like the Tecumseh curse though, because it is, no matter how you argue it away, uncanny that so many died in neat, 20-year increments (except for Reagan who could easily have died).

Bibliophage- your link didn't work.

[TinCanMan]

I think it should be the prime mandate for the Secret Service to enforce this curse. With Reagan we just didn't try hard enough.

[yabob]

Can anyone cite any mentions of this "curse" before Reagan getting shot and "breaking" it? Better yet, can anyone find a mention of it shortly after the death of Tecumseh?

I was very familiar with it in the 70's, not as "Tecumseh's curse" but as "every president elected in a year divisible by 20 since 1840 died in office" ... It was brought up many times as the 1980 election approached. Not documented cites, I know, but it was definitely floating around prior to Reagan. I doubt if you will find any mention of it prior to the existence of data establishing the pattern, as several of us have already commented on.

[bibliophage]

Originally posted by Turpentine
Bibliophage- your link didn't work. Obviously I've been cursed. The old hacker on his deathbed told me, "May you and all the people after you whose userids are evenly divisible by 41 and who try to post that link on alternate rainy Friday afternoons, fail miserably." Try Cecil's column on the curse (http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a3_082.html)

[Annie-Xmas]

Originally posted by TinCanMan
I think it should be the prime mandate for the Secret Service to enforce this curse. With Reagan we just didn't try hard enough.

Maybe John Hinkley's lawyer should have used this as a defense: It wasn't my client's fault, he was under the effect of an Indian curse. Then again, he did a great job of screwing justice anyway.

[jamesglewisf]

I figured out the coincidence: They were all Presidents! Got ya. ;)

I thought the Tecumseh curse had to do with chainsaws. No, that wasn't it; the curse was having to listen to people argue about superstitions all the way up to the 21st century!

C'mon people. We are talking about a curse. If the President talked about it, he would get lambasted in the press for being a kook and talking about superstitions. It's on the level of a President's wife consulting a psychic. LOL!

[lawoot]

Originally posted by John Corrado
As for Garfield's death- yabob's right, the wound Garfield received was relatively minor; what killed Garfield was *months* of doctors probing the wound, trying to get the bullet out, at a point where "septic conditions" meant not specifically *trying* to get cigar ashes in the wound.
[/B]

I heard an interesting piece on NPR last week, that said that Alexander Graham Bell had an invention (a metal detector) that could be used to find bullets in bodies. He had been trying it out in Veteran's homes on Civil War vets, with much success. He would pass it over the body, and it would hum when it detected metal. Voila! The Bullet wasfound, and could be removed. So he came to DC,with much fanfare and hullabaloo, and used it on Garfield. It hummed over his entire body. Big failure. Later it turned out that Garfield was on an early metal spring mattress, and the springs were setting off the detector. But no one realized it until after he was dead.

[RM Mentock]

The twenty year curse was highly publicized right after Kennedy's assassination, as were all the coincidences between his life and Lincoln's.

Originally posted by John Corrado
what killed Garfield was *months* of doctors probing the wound, trying to get the bullet out, at a point where "septic conditions" meant not specifically *trying* to get cigar ashes in the wound.

I've read this a couple times--did you mean to say "antiseptic"?

[SevenUp]

I read that astrologers said that the reason for these deaths was becasue every 20 years (give or take) Jupiter and Saturn conjoined.
So are there conjunct this year also?

[RM Mentock]

Originally posted by SevenUp
I read that astrologers said that the reason for these deaths was becasue every 20 years (give or take) Jupiter and Saturn conjoined.
So are there conjunct this year also?

Ah, it was pretty neat early in the morning around the end of May. They were only about one degree apart. They've been moving apart but will move slightly back together. They're a nice impressive sight with the bright stars of the "winter constellations" in the early morning now. They will be fairly close together, high in the early evening sky this winter.

[Diceman]

If the curse *does* come around again, we should be prepared. Who would you prefer, Pres. Cheney or Pres. Lieberman? Frankly, both possibilites make me shudder. Maybe we'll get lucky, and Clinton will drop dead of a massive Big Mac-induced coronary, or Air Force One will crash in the Atlantic while on yet another Mideast peace mission (heh, heh).

[obfusciatrist]

While we are talking about coincidences that can be made to look important:

Number of presidents who first reached the office by election (this excludes successions-by-death and Gerald Ford): 32

Of those, the number with birthdays between 4/29 and 12/27 (almost 8 months): 17 (53%)

Of those 17, the number successfully reelected: 2 (12%)

Of the 32, the number with birthdays between 12/28 and 4/28 (4 months): 15 (47%)

Of those 15, the number successfully reelected: 13 (87%)

What does this mean? Well, the Christian Power Months (Christmas through Easter) produce particularly strong leaders. These four months (1/3 of the total) have produced almost half(!) of the people we've elected president. Further, those elected from those four months prove to be such strong leaders they were almost all reelected (the weak proved to be James Buchanan and William Harrison, Grover Cleveland was weak but redeemed himself).

Conversely, those born during the Christian Hibernation Months have proven to be weak. Even though they are given 2/3 of the year they have only produced half of the presidents, none with much success.

This proves that the power of God is greater than the power of Satan. Hallelujah Lord!!

Oh yeah, who were the two Satan spawn that managed to get reelected? Dwight Eisenhower and (surprise!) Bill Clinton.



PS, of course I don't believe any of that

[zwaldd]

Can anyone cite any mentions of this "curse" before Reagan getting shot and "breaking" it? Better yet, can anyone find a mention of it shortly after the death of Tecumseh?
there was a novel written in 1980 called 'the zero factor' by william johnson. it was about exactly this phenomenon.