Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[Kat]

Can I have rum instead?

[Autolycus]

Well thank god. We, the town, actually got one.


Tequila for all!

And Blue Lagoons too! I'm feeling festive-like!

[Autolycus]

Can I have rum instead?

"No milkshake until after you've finished your tequila young lady" - Futurama

[kivvik]

I knew not ordering my own drink was a good idea! *Enjoys the free drinks* I bet the scum are busy as beavers after a dam-wrecking flood. Sucks to be them, eh? They don't get to drink themselves into senseless stupors like the cool people!

[Autolycus]

I knew not ordering my own drink was a good idea! *Enjoys the free drinks* I bet the scum are busy as beavers after a dam-wrecking flood. Sucks to be them, eh? They don't get to drink themselves into senseless stupors like the cool people!

Only mafia would un-implicates themselves like that! *glares at Kivvik

Haha, just kiddin' around buddy. Let's get hammered! :D

[brewha]

Great googly moogly - We got one!

Barkeep, gimme one of each!

Woo Hoo!

[Fretful Porpentine]

Whooo!!! We finally guessed right!

[kivvik]

Only mafia would un-implicates themselves like that! *glares at Kivvik

Haha, just kiddin' around buddy. Let's get hammered! :D

Itsh kivvik, buddy! Dun know who this Kivvik be. But hey, I'll bet Jose Cuervo knows! Or... whoever makes whatever is in a BLue Lagoon.

[Kat]

"No milkshake until after you've finished your tequila young lady" - Futurama
Fine, but I want a strawberry daiquiri afterwards, then.

*downs the tequila*

[Menocchio]

*whew* I was nervous about that one, being a last minute substitution.

Let's see what shakes out tonight.

[Blaster Master]

Well damn, I'm glad I kept pushing that lynch vote; even if JSexton or Fern Forest really are scum, at least we can still celebrate, eh? I'd say sorry to see you go, Suburban Plankton, but, well, I'm not. ;)

I suspect we'll have some good stuff to go over in the morning, so I'll be waiting anxiously. Hopefully we've got the mafia reeling.

[Autolycus]

Itsh kivvik, buddy! Dun know who this Kivvik be. But hey, I'll bet Jose Cuervo knows! Or... whoever makes whatever is in a BLue Lagoon.

Yo wolf-dude, it's 3 parts Vodka, 1 part Blue rum, and 1 part pine-apple juice. So there!

[MonkeyMensch]

Booh-yeah! Booh-yeah! Booh-yeah!

[MonkeyMensch]

And Silk Panties for me.

No, no, no! The drink!

[Kat]

Yeah, sure. We believe that, MonkeyMensch. *moves a few barstools away from MM*

:p

[Autolycus]

And Silk Panties for me.

No, no, no! The drink!

Nothing wrong with panties (http://www.freshpair.com/catalog_section_women_id_7_brand_34.html)! mmmm

However, the drink (http://www.webtender.com/db/drink/3179) is totally froo-froo. Peach snapps? WTF dude.

[ArizonaTeach]

That'll teach the bastard to try to steal the Krabby Patty recipe.

[MonkeyMensch]

[Deepened voice]
Yeah, and put it in a shot glass. A dirty shot glass.
[/Deepened voice]

[Hockey Monkey]

I'll let my sig line speak for itself. :D

[Aguecheek]

Lessee. Last I checked in, JSexton was claiming doctor, Fern Forest was on the way to the gallows, and FCOD was claiming miller.

And all of a sudden, from behind, we've got Godfather's Folly by a nose! Woot!

Barkeep, coffee an' doughnuts for the cop. Beer for me. And uh...that's it, I'm broke. Queuing cleaned me out last night.

[MadTheSwine]

I'll have a beer and a Krabby Patty.

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

Bartender! Give me a glass and a bottle of JD...

--FCOD

[Fern Forest]

Inappropriate humor to follow.



Just when I thought that I was out they pull me back in.

[Queuing]

And uh...that's it, I'm broke. Queuing cleaned me out last night.

Oh, yeah, sorry about that. It was worth it though! (to me at least)

Barkeep!

A bottle of your second cheapest liquor for my friend, AGuEcheek, ;)

[StarvingButStrong]

Okay, this is soooo not fair. I called SP scummy and cast my vote for him way back near the start of the day. And I left it there, ignoring the siren calls of other suspiciously scummy actions.

Finally when it became clear (hah!) that there wouldn't be enough votes to lynch him, I was a good team player and switched to JSexton.

And what do I find when I finally get back on? Why the lot of you jigged and jogged and lynched Suburban Plankton!

Not only didn't I get to be in on the lynching, I wasn't even officially one of the votes. :mad:





Okay, sure, I'm glad we offed a Mafia, but....heck, this'll probably be the one and only time I was right-- oh, forget it. But I don't want to just sit and drink.

I want to DANCE and drink!

There's a new afterhours club just opened up in the old cannery. Called the Sea Serpent, I believe.

Anybody want to come with me?

[Lakai]

Sweet. :cool:

[kivvik]

Sweet. :cool:

Like sugar-coated... sugar lumps. Yeah. Dipped in chocolate. And sprinkled on ice cream, with whipped cream. And... *grumbles about stupid healthy eatin's*

Err. Carry on.

[Blaster Master]

Hopefully this night will last a bit longer than the last one. NAF, you said you found a replacement for Smitty, are we going to let him/her kind of catch up at least some before the night ends?

[Kat]

No, throw them to the wolves! ;)

[Rysto]

Maybe NAF was able to convince the SK to off Smitty.

[JSexton]

I'll be damned. This coin we're flipping isn't all tails!

[NAF1138]

Hopefully this night will last a bit longer than the last one. NAF, you said you found a replacement for Smitty, are we going to let him/her kind of catch up at least some before the night ends?


I will talk with the replacement before we start up agian and make sure she feels up to speed.

[NAF1138]

Also, I guess I should say. The replacement is cowgirl. She is concerned that it might be confusing, I am not. BUT if you all think that it will be too confusing I also have Idle Thoughts standing by. But cowgirl got back to me first.

Your call if you think it will be a bad idea.

[StarvingButStrong]

Also, I guess I should say. The replacement is cowgirl. She is concerned that it might be confusing, I am not. BUT if you all think that it will be too confusing I also have Idle Thoughts standing by. But cowgirl got back to me first.

Your call if you think it will be a bad idea.

Wouldn't Cowgirl have been reading the Forbidden Thread? Would that present a problem?

[NAF1138]

Wouldn't Cowgirl have been reading the Forbidden Thread? Would that present a problem?


She has, so have I. I don't think anything has been said that will change anything. It is a fairly light thread this time arround, I don't think we have many spectators (all the specators from last time are playing.) And all the former players have been very good about not saying anything sensitive about the game.

[Kat]

Hey, wasn't she supposed to bring us nachos?

[StarvingButStrong]

Hey, wasn't she supposed to bring us nachos?

Oh, heck. If she's got nachos, send her right in. :D

[Santo Rugger]

Mmmm, I don't know what I like better; fake, gas station nachos with lots of jalapenos, or real nachos with meat and beans. Which one is she bringing? *we need a yummy face* :D

[Blaster Master]

I think she's been out of the game long enough that any confusion with her previous role will be minimal. Heck, maybe watching from the outside will give her some fresh perspective, eh?

[kivvik]

As long as you are sure she isn't coming in with any information that she shouldn't have, then I suppose it's ok with me. It'll be strange, but ok.

And nachos go good with booze, I'm fairly certain.

[Fern Forest]

Also, I guess I should say. The replacement is cowgirl. She is concerned that it might be confusing, I am not. BUT if you all think that it will be too confusing I also have Idle Thoughts standing by. But cowgirl got back to me first.

Your call if you think it will be a bad idea.I'm fine with it. Boy, if she ends up on the opposite side she'd be pretty much guaranteed to win the game one way or another.

Lucky girl.

[hocow]

Did someone say Tequila?

[sturmhauke]

We lynched the right person?! Halle-fuckin-luja! Things are looking up!

[Malacandra]

Another iced tea this way! Things got better when I switched from lemonade. :)

[glee]

Also, I guess I should say. The replacement is cowgirl. She is concerned that it might be confusing, I am not. BUT if you all think that it will be too confusing I also have Idle Thoughts standing by. But cowgirl got back to me first.

Your call if you think it will be a bad idea.

I think it would be better if a brand new player (Idle Thoughts) came in. Cowgirl wasn't killed the first day, so did get involved in the game as a Citizen.

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

cowgirl should make a fine replacement. At least if I'm killed tonight there will still be a cow in the game.

--FCOD

[Queuing]

Only thing I have to say about Cowgirl joining is that it seems a little odd.

Why would anyone want to join in this game?

[cowgirl]

Well, I'm here, and I'm on page 14 of reading it again. And I brought nachos for everyone (with lots of jalopenos)!

I haven't got any information that the rest of you don't, everyone is quite circumspect about speaking freely in that other thread.

Can someone pass me that bowl of salsa? I'll need some sustenance to get me through this thread. Looks like I'll be here for a while. A round of whiskey sours, barkeep.

Only thing I have to say about Cowgirl joining is that it seems a little odd.

Why would anyone want to join in this game?I know, bizarre isn't it. I have been addicted to this thread since I died and have been quite disappointed that the forbidden thread has been so boring. I figure since I'm keeping up with it anyway, I might as well participate!

Y'all can vote me off the island in favour of Idle Thoughts if you want, in which case I'll just keep my spreadsheet to myself. ;)

[hocow]

cowgirl should make a fine replacement. At least if I'm killed tonight there will still be a cow in the game.

--FCOD


Hey! I'm still here! :mad: :p

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

Hey! I'm still here! :mad: :pOMG so sorry! I completely forgot about you! Well, the more cows the better, that's what I say.

--FCOD

[cowgirl]

Well, the more cows the better, that's what I say.
--FCODAnd verily, I say, moo.

[Queuing]

Y'all can vote me off the island in favour of Idle Thoughts if you want, in which case I'll just keep my spreadsheet to myself. ;)

Well since you are taking over for smitty, who back on day 1 gave us a spreadsheet I thought that it would be mandatory for you to have a spreadsheet. Here is hoping you put it on Google apps as well!

[JSexton]

makes sense. after all, she won't be coming in completely unaware of the thread.

[Suburban Plankton]

Hey there! I'm back for an "official" farewell post, since I sort of flubbed the timing on my last one. (It's OK; I asked permission for one more chance to put in my last word).

It's been a lot harder following along with the game this time than it was the first time. The first game I was able to read and digest pretty much every post; this time I was lucky to have the time to skim through looking for highlights. I think that's what ultimately lead to my demise. I was trying to keep my posting style consistent, but without having the time to do proper analysis I think I wasn't able to make the points I wanted in the way I wanted them made. Also, people seem a lot more paranoid this time around. Maybe it's the larger group, maybe it's the extra two killers.

I'm eagerly awaiting the outcome of tonight's action; it looks like things are going to start getting real interesting pretty soon (as opposed to the bore-fest we had over the last 40-something pages). On some level, I'm a bit relieved to be out, because now I can actually have a life outside Doperville.

Oh, and about the nachos; just remember that you never know what someone might have slipped into the cheese sauce when nobody was looking.

I'm just sayin'.

[StarvingButStrong]

Dammit. :( I had this nice little file. A list of all the players and if they're dead, how it happened, and what claims if any they've made AND a list of what post numbers they made that made me go "hmmm".

And something has happened to it. (Okay, clearly *I* happened to it, but I didn't mean to.)

Does anyone have anything similar they could share? At least the names/status/claims part?

[MonkeyMensch]

And verily, I say, moo.
Ook ook. Welcome.

[hocow]

Hmm... Two girl cows, one boy cow, and lots of alcohol.
We can have a fun night! ;)

[Queuing]

Hmm... Two girl cows, one boy cow, and lots of alcohol.
We can have a fun night! ;)


Ummm, is it wrong to be strangely turned on by this?

[Pleonast]

Ook ook. Welcome."Ook"? Are you sure you're not an ape?

[MonkeyMensch]

"Ook"? Are you sure you're not an ape?
Technically, I'm a gibbon. But people always said, "Do the Monkey! Do the Monkey!", and who was I to deny them their chosen appellation.

[Aguecheek]

A bottle of your second cheapest liquor for my friend, AGuEcheek, ;)How very kind!

And I will use this unsolicited drink of the house plonk for a toast.

Ladies and Gentlemen...to the Ottawa Senators!

:D

[Queuing]

Be careful.

Don't choke.

[Aguecheek]

Be careful.

Don't choke.Bwaha! Okay, you got me on that one. If I do choke, maybe they won't...?

[hocow]

Ummm, is it wrong to be strangely turned on by this?

No, not at all.

How you doin'?

[Hockey Monkey]

No, not at all.

How you doin'?

Hooo boy.... waiter....check please! I think I've had enough (hic) for tonight!

Somebody be sure to post video of the cow orgy on YouTube later! :D

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

Sorry, but I won't be participating in any orgies, bovine or otherwise. Happily married here ;).

:p

--FCOD

[MadTheSwine]

Oink

[Fretful Porpentine]

Uff uff. (According to Walt Kelly, this is the noise porcupines make, and who am I to argue?)

[Blaster Master]

Well, as long as we're making sounds that our names imply:



























BOOM!

[Menocchio]

Um...

The Menocchio says:
“I have said that, in my opinion, all was chaos, that is, earth, air, water, and fire were mixed together; and out of that bulk a mass formed – just as cheese is made out of milk – and worms appeared in it, and these were the angels. The most holy majesty decreed that these should be God and the angels, and among that number of angels, there was also God, he too having been created out of that mass at the same time, and he was made lord, with four captains, Lucifer, Michael, Gabriel, and Raphael”

[Hockey Monkey]

:::sniff::: My name doesn't have a sound! Waaaaaaa!

[storyteller0910]

Uh... I guess...

"Once upon a time?"

I need a cooler username.

[Queuing]

"damn cashier"

"Oh no, a cheque writer!"

"Oh lord, not the coupons!"

[brewha]

BRO0000000000HA

That's the sound I make when I run by really fast.

What? That's all I got.

[brewha]

BRO0000HAAAAAAA

This is what I meant. Stupid edit revocation.

[Aguecheek]

I am a great eater of beef, and I believe that does harm to my wit.

[cowgirl]

Moo moo moo moo ... (http://www.brownsauce.org/2006/10/27/can-you-imagine-how-much-i-love-you/)

[hocow]

Hooo boy.... waiter....check please! I think I've had enough (hic) for tonight!


I think we all have..

BTW, brewha, that made me giggle. :D

[ArizonaTeach]

Ya know why this thread's a beast? The last true-game post was 2245.
And yes, the irony of my adding to the count is not lost on me.
I just thought since everyone was doing something about their names, I'd mention a hoity-toity word like "irony." Or maybe I could talk about cactus...

[JSexton]

Guess I'm "wah-chicka-wah-wah"?

[Hockey Monkey]

Guess I'm "wah-chicka-wah-wah"?

ROTFLMAO!!!!! :D

[sturmhauke]

I sound like, "screeee-bzzzzzzraaap!"

[StarvingButStrong]

I guess I'd moan and beg for food, except I'm also the strong, silent type.

[Kat]

Meow.

[kivvik]

Uhh.... *palindromes?*

[JSexton]

Uhh.... *palindromes?*
pop?

foof?

and I'm spent.

[kivvik]

pop?

foof?

and I'm spent.

Well, that was quick :D

[Fretful Porpentine]

Sums are not set as a test on Erasmus!

[Kat]

Race car

[Hockey Monkey]

Whew, just checking in to see if I'm dead yet.

:::checks last few posts:::

Nope not yet. :D

[sturmhauke]

"Bring out your dead!"

"I'm not dead yet."

[Queuing]

Kivvik is that really your post count? Or am I seeing things? 57 posts? 40 of them in this thread? And you are a charter member?

[kivvik]

Kivvik is that really your post count? Or am I seeing things? 57 posts? 40 of them in this thread? And you are a charter member?

I, um, lurk a little? <Not an indication of anything pertaining to this game!>

/nitpick
all lowercase name :p
/nitpickoff

[Queuing]

Ok, lets clear this up:

Gadarene has 2 A's
Malacandra is a guy
Aguecheek has nothing to do with water, or A's, and doesn't trust Q's
kivvik does not have any capitals

Umm, thats all I can think of.

I would like to make 1 blanket apology for any misspellings of your name in the past, present and future. Malacandra I promise I will never think you are a girl. For the rest of you (cowgirl excepted) I make no promises on your gender, and hereby apologize for that as well.


/hijack

Is that record kivvik? Are you the lowest posting CM?

/hijack off

[kivvik]

/hijack

Is that record kivvik? Are you the lowest posting CM?

/hijack off

/hijack

Hellifino. Is it possible to actually check for such a thing? If so, then before this thread I might've had a shot at that less-than-coveted title. When I first posted in the original WW thread to ask about joining the next game, I recall seeing that it was my 15th or 16th post.

/hijack off

[Fern Forest]

:::sniff::: My name doesn't have a sound! Waaaaaaa!
I don't know about my sound either. I assume I do but I've never been around to hear it.

And as long as we're all clearing things up, I'm a guy. I even posted my picture way back when. Call me she all you want though. I can't really get worked up about it.

[Lakai]

Sorry, but I won't be participating in any orgies, bovine or otherwise. Happily married here ;).

:p

--FCOD
This is definitely anti-town.

Vote FCOD. :D

[Pleonast]

Good morning, everyone!

Oh, wait it's still Night? Nevermind.

[Malacandra]

I believe I can see the glimmering of dawn filtered through the very agreeable hue of this, my fifth iced tea. Barperson! Another one of these and one for my good friend Pleonast!

[NAF1138]

And so day broke on the quiet town of Doperville. The good citizens of the town had had a good night, full of fun and too much alcohol. But who cared if they got drunk and started making animal (and some decidedly non animal) noises, they had finally killed one of the mafia! Yes, it was a time of celebration.

kivvik in particular was happy because people had finally learned to stop capitalizing the K in his name. And so off into the night he went singing a ditty about palindromes. On a whim he broke into the old abandoned amusement park to have a little bit of fun. He was found the next morning with all his limbs shattered, apparently dropped from the top of the Farris wheel.

zuma had not celebrated as much. Like any good mason zuma was fretting over what the mob had done to the poor old Masonic hall. And now they had a murder taking place on the front steps! It was horrible. Perhaps a stroll in the night air would calm the nerves? It WAS much less dangerous out now that 2 mafia members were dead. Unfortunately it was still dangerous enough. Zuma was found dead from a gunshot wound moments before the dawn.

Flying Cow of Doom was ready to meet his maker. He drank heartily all night and cavorted with the rest of the town. He knew he was done for, the town had found out his secret after all, so he made the best of it. That night he sat in his bed waiting for the worst to come, and when it did, he was ready. Flying Cow of Doom was found dead in his own bed later that day


kivvik- mafia
zuma- mason
and
Flying Cow of Doom - mafia

are all dead.

You had a good night town, make the most of it.

This day ends at 9am pacific time on Monday.

Good luck, and try to stay alive.

[NAF1138]

I should probably post a player list too.

Aguecheek
ArizonaTeach
Autolycus
Blaster Master
brewha
cowgirl
Fern Forest
Fretful Porpentine
glee
hocow
Kat
Lakai
MadTheSwine
Malacandra
Menocchio
MonkeyMensch
pimaspinner
Pleonast
Pygmy Rugger
Queuing
Rysto
StarvingButStrong
Storyteller0910
Sturmhauke

[Queuing]

Sweet!

So we are now down to 5 Scum (most likely) and 1 SK.

Zuma, RIP. We had our arguments, but it was all in good fun.

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

Yeah, I lied. Although I didn't really have much choice, did I? Good game everyone!

--FCOD

[brewha]

One mason for three mafia? I'll take it!

So, presumably, kivvik got offed by the SK, BM did his job (I now fully believe he's the Vig), and the mafia offed Zuma.

Where do we stand now?

[brewha]

I would think that the Doc would be a much higher target to the mafia than a mason. I point the FOS squarely at JSexton!

[glee]

Yeah, I lied. Although I didn't really have much choice, did I? Good game everyone!

--FCOD

You played well. :)
It wasn't your fault you were a 'bad' guy!

[Queuing]

So, anybody have access to google apps? Or an open FTP site?

I have searched all posts by Suburban Plankton, and kivvik, and copied them into a word doc. I have removed some posts, such as drinking ones and rule clarification questions. These are just the posts, copied from the single post view. I haven't even read it yet, but I thought it might make life a little easier to read what they said. However I do not own a domain and cannot get access to google apps. I would be happy to email them to whomever.

[Pleonast]

**queues bagpipe music for zuma**
He served us well.

And now I think this confirms beyond reasonable doubt, myself as a Mason and Blaster Master as the Vigilante?

Who shall we start with today?

[glee]

One mason for three mafia? I'll take it!

So, presumably, kivvik got offed by the SK, BM did his job (I now fully believe he's the Vig), and the mafia offed Zuma.

Where do we stand now?

I agree with your choice of perpetrators. :)
As well as Blaster Master being the Vig, we can also confidently accept PimaSpinner as a Beat Cop (he spotted Flying Cow).

NAF1138, did we ever establish if Mafia can kill Mafia?
(It's vital we know this!)

The next step is

...

to reread the thread from page 5 onwards :smack: to see who the next most likely Mafia are.

As you do this :eek: , bear in mind that Flying Cow, Kivvik, Nesta and Suburban Plankton were all Mafia.

[Queuing]

Yes, any doubts to the claims of both you and BM are now put to rest.

First things first, I think we need to hear from Pimaspinner about his results on FernForest. And then a vote or suggestion from you.

I propose we DON'T go after JSexton. If he is scum, well since we have evened the odds a little no big deal. We know he is either scum or Doc. If he is Doc, well screw killing him. Let the scum do that. If he is scum, we can deal with him later.

[glee]

**queues bagpipe music for zuma**
He served us well.

And now I think this confirms beyond reasonable doubt, myself as a Mason and Blaster Master as the Vigilante?

Who shall we start with today?

I agree Zuma played really well and that you and Blaster are confirmed.

Given you are the last known Mason, should you risk revealing someone you trust? (i.e. another Mason)
I assume that the Mafia decided the Doctor would guard Blaster or Pima and are targeting Masons.
It's difficult doing strategy with the Serial Killer being independent, but is it worth revealing such information to stop the Mafia first killing you then claiming the next Mafia facing a lynching is a Mason? (At this point at least one Mason would have to reveal themself.)
I suppose given that the town outnumber the Mafia, 'one-for-one' suits us, but at least I'm making a suggestion!

[Rysto]

The Masons should wait as long as possible to out themselves. The later they do this, the more valuable they are to us.

This may be obvious, but pimaspinner, when you give us your results, don't reveal power roles. Just say Town, Mafia or Serial Killer.

[Pleonast]

I agree we should put JSexton on the backburner. If he's scum only playing the Doc, the real Doctor can counterclaim when we get closer to the end game. No need to rush that along yet.

And good question about revealing additional Masons. Since the Mafia took down zuma last night, I think it's reasonable that I'm a prime target for tonight. I don't want to unilaterally reveal another Mason, though.

I think it's better to let an unrevealed Mason make a claim. First, let's see who gets a bandwagon. If it's a Mason, they can claim and I'll confirm. No problem.

If our bandwagonee is not a Mason (and assuming they don't stupidly claim while I'm still alive :D ), it may be wise for a Mason to voluntarily claim anyway. This will let me confirm and keep the chain of Masonry alive for at least one more night. Thoughts?

[Menocchio]

Vote JSexton
I didn't believe him before, and I still don't. Call it role-claim fatigue if you must, but it still seems unlikely to me. Plus, I suspect that he may be the SK.

The serial killer, whoever it is, is pretty damn good at it. Singly, the SK has managed to kill just as many mafia as we have all together. I mean, nesta and now kivvik? I wouldn't have called either of those.

zuma's death is no great mystery. With JSexton either himself scum or like as not protecting himself, the masons and other confirmed town become more and more attractive targets. Everyone else is just more scenery for the scum to hide behind. I suppose I'm likely further down that same hit list. Pleo, perhaps it's time to out any remaining masons? If you're taken out, we'd have no way to verify them, especially if there's only one left.

[sturmhauke]

We bagged three scumbags? Hell yeah! Wait, we lost another Mason? Goddammit! This thread should come with one of those warning signs you see on roller coasters.

Anyway, here’s a voting record for Day 3. My previous record can be found here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8427507&postcount=1598). Again, feel free to make any corrections.

Aguecheek - Day 3 votes - MonkeyMensch, Fern Forest
ArizonaTeach - Day 3 votes - FlyingCowOfDoom, JSexton, Suburban Plankton, Fern Forest, Suburban Plankton
Autolycus - Day 3 votes - Suburban Plankton, MadTheSwine, Autolycus (yes, he voted for himself…)
Blaster Master - Day 3 votes - FlyingCowOfDoom, Suburban Plankton, JSexton, Suburban Plankton
brewha - Day 3 votes - Fern Forest
Fern Forest - Day 3 votes - sturmhauke, pimaspinner, FlyingCowOfDoom, unvote
Fretful Porpentine - Day 3 votes - JSexton, kivvik, FlyingCowOfDoom, JSexton, Suburban Plankton
glee - Day 3 votes - pimaspinner, FlyingCowOfDoom, Fern Forest, Suburban Plankton
hocow - Day 3 votes - MonkeyMensch, FlyingCowOfDoom, Fern Forest
JSexton - Day 3 votes - Suburban Plankton, FlyingCowOfDoom, Fern Forest
Kat - Day 3 votes - pimaspinner, FlyingCowOfDoom, Fern Forest, Suburban Plankton
Lakai - Day 3 votes - pimaspinner, FlyingCowOfDoom, Fern Forest
MadTheSwine - Day 3 votes - Pygmy Rugger, MonkeyMensch, FlyingCowOfDoom, JSexton
Malacandra - Day 3 votes - Fern Forest
Menocchio - Day 3 votes - FlyingCowOfDoom, JSexton, Suburban Plankton
MonkeyMensch - Day 3 votes - Queuing, FlyingCowOfDoom, JSexton, Suburban Plankton
pimaspinner - Day 3 votes - Rysto, glee, FlyingCowOfDoom, Fern Forest, JSexton, Suburban Plankton
Pleonast - Day 3 votes - JSexton, Suburban Plankton
Pygmy Rugger - Day 3 votes - pimaspinner, FlyingCowOfDoom, JSexton, Suburban Plankton
Queuing - Day 3 votes - pimaspinner, FlyingCowOfDoom, Fern Forest, JSexton, Suburban Plankton
Rysto - Day 3 votes - hocow, JSexton, Suburban Plankton
cowgirl Mk. II (replaced Smitty) - Day 3 votes – none (Smitty didn’t vote, cowgirl stepped in Night 4)
StarvingButStrong - Day 3 votes - Suburban Plankton, JSexton
Storyteller0910 - Day 3 votes - FlyingCowOfDoom, pimaspinner
sturmhauke - Day 3 votes - JSexton, Suburban Plankton

Dead players who were alive yesterday:

FlyingCowOfDoom (Mafia) - Day 3 votes - JSexton - killed Night 4
kivvik (Mafia) - Day 3 votes - FlyingCowOfDoom, Fern Forest - killed Night 4
Suburban Plankton (Mafia) - Day 3 votes - Jsexton - lynched Day 3
zuma (Mason) - Day 3 votes - JSexton, pimaspinner, JSexton - killed Night 4

And, since someone asked for it, I have a summary of claims made, and some other noteworthy events:
Night 2 - only 2 deaths; "trust/distrust" list idea indirectly gets CaerieD killed
Day 2 - JSexton replaces chrisk; Blaster Master makes Vig claim; proposal to direct Vig kills; Pleonast and zuma make Mason claims
Night 3 - only 2 deaths
Day 3 - pimaspinner makes Beat Cop claim, supports Blaster Master as Vig, says FCOD is Mafia; FCOD makes Miller claim; JSexton makes Doctor claim; cowgirl replaces Smitty

[NAF1138]

I agree with your choice of perpetrators. :)
As well as Blaster Master being the Vig, we can also confidently accept PimaSpinner as a Beat Cop (he spotted Flying Cow).

NAF1138, did we ever establish if Mafia can kill Mafia?
(It's vital we know this!)

Ok... I will say that no...mafia cannot night kill another mafia member. I still think that they wouldn't even ask me, and frankly they deserve to lose the game if they pulled such a gambit, but if it will make your lives easier I will disallow it.

[Menocchio]

The Masons should wait as long as possible to out themselves. The later they do this, the more valuable they are to us.

This may be obvious, but pimaspinner, when you give us your results, don't reveal power roles. Just say Town, Mafia or Serial Killer.
Agree. Unless investigating a claimed power role. If JSexton came up vanilla town, he could be the Godfather.

[Rysto]

A re-read of the beginning of Day 3 shows that it's confirmed scum starting the lynch JSexton bandwagon. They're pushing very hard, too. I know that I've said that scum will be trying to misdirect us, but they were so strong they very nearly got JSexton lynched. Now, JSexton claims to have protected himself on Night 3. It's possible that the scum realized that he's the Doc and trying to lynch him, knowing that a night-kill was an iffy proposition.

[Malacandra]

Yay! Go town. Will wait for pimaspinner's report with keen interest, but I have to say I still find JSexton's claim dubious. On the other hand Rysto makes a good point. I guess I'll have to wait and see how today's bickering deliberation goes.

[Queuing]

A quick read of all of the posts by kivvik shows quite the defense of Autolycus. Over and over again in fact.

In Post 932 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8419672&postcount=932) she talks about him leaving hints, and how she has picked up on some, even quoting some.

In post 1470 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8425703&postcount=1470) she proposes Winston as a vig kill, and again talks about trusting Autolycus.

post 1709 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8431628&postcount=1709) again lists Autolycus as town (along with myself), wants to hear more from JSexton, and also FOS glee.

1771 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8433884&postcount=1771) trusts Autolycus again as well as talking about JSexton and his analytical skills.

post 1819 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435473&postcount=1819) First slight disagreement with Autolycus.

1862 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8436839&postcount=1862) addresses Fretful's idea of whom is scum. This list is (from quoted text in that post) "glee, kivvik, JSexton, and Rysto are BM's co-conspirators"

1878 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8437733&postcount=1878) answers to some of BM's theories, and admits to siding with Autolycus.

1942 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8440353&postcount=1942) is the first person to ask that Autolycus not be modkilled. I seconded this motion.

2159 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8445692&postcount=2159) votes for FernForest, even though FF is in danger.

I am not really sure what, if anything, this means. I think it points to Fretful being a citizen, but I suppose that will be (mostly) confirmed by Pimaspinner. I also can't decide if this is a good or bad thing for Autolycus. My gut feeling (which has stunk so far) is that it is a good thing for Autolycus.

I reiterate the request for Google apps/FTP site, if you think my word doc of kivvik and Suburban Plankton's posts would be helpful.

RE: Mason claim, unless there is only 1 other left I see no reason for them to claim now. They can claim later, and if there are counter-claims, we still get a scum one way or the other.

[Hockey Monkey]

YAY! I lived and can post this!!! I put several hours of work into it. First off, a salute to zuma, may you rest in peace my friend.


As promised, I investigated Fern Forest last night. After I got my ID, I went back and scoured his posts, and after looking at his posts with fresh eyes, I think I got the correct ID on him.


:::cue music from Psycho shower scene:::

Fern Forest is the Serial Killer

:::cue thunder and lightning:::



Go back and read these posts with fresh eyes, and see if you agree. Taken one by one, they don’t amount to a whole lot, but take them all together and you see a pattern. (I will allow for the fact that I could be completely wrong here.)

Post #376 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407552&postcount=376)
The Serial Killer's goal should be to rid the town of Mafia first. A Mafioso majority will insure them victory and him loserdom. If only the town plus the SK is left then he had a hope of being the last alive in a town where the streets run red with blood. Tough job but I hope he does well, just not great. There should be no reason to claim SK since doing so would mean you lose. You don't get to claim town or mafia victory, you have only your own victory to shoot for.

The vigilante's goal should also be to rid the town of Mafia first. Then once they are gone, find and kill the SK for Town victory. If he kills the SK too early we're left with 1 town kill versus 1 mafia kill rather then 3 to 1. A vigilante could claim. Who they attack that night would still go through even if they die. And they could hope to have the doctor protect them giving the town basically two discusable kills per day/night cycle. You know, this could work. Claim and let the town help you decide. Although it's even better if you keep quiet and the town help you make a decision by talking about who the VG should kill. SK too. If we're smart we can help direct the three kills. This might help us get even more information by seeing who was urging who else to be killed.

And the last line from the same post:


Now who to kill? Who to kill? I feel like a kid in a candy shop. Only the kid is Pugsley and the candy is actually candied eyeballs.

Post #639 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414800&postcount=639) Here he tries to steer the Vigilante to kill Autolycus and asks the SK to off Pleonast.

Post #646 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414864&postcount=646) He does some analysis on how the SK wins the game.

Post #730 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8416133&postcount=730) See the pattern developing yet?

Post # 885. Right here he is talking about Autolycus. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418537&postcount=885) He asks both the Vig and SK to target him.

Out "stalking" people, eh? (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418905&postcount=901)

Post #999 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8420704&postcount=999)
BOLDING FOR EMPHASIS
Well,ok then. Almost in the spirit of what I meant but not quite. Can you defend your vote and convince people to agree with you? Well I guess you're right I do talk a lot. Hasn't convinced me that I'm scum but then I do know what I am.

<SNIP>

This day has covered a lot of posts. It looks like tempers are starting to flare. And I do talk a lot, I'm sorry. When I die you'll ... well you'll have a lot of posts to review from this guy who didn't actually know anymore then you guys do. But wasn't afriad to push for things he thought would work, despite the enemies it may have made him.

Post #1123 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8422877&postcount=1123) A little more theory on the SK.

Asking if the Doc will protect Blaster Master or Jsexton. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8423115&postcount=1154)

Telling Blaster Master that he is doomed, and to make his next kill count. Plus another jab at Autolycus. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8423188&postcount=1172)

Talking to the SK again. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8424482&postcount=1295)

More thoughts on the SK. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8430994&postcount=1686)

Post # 1891 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8438528&postcount=1891)
Should we ask the Miller to block hocow? Then if there are two kills tonight we'd know a little more. He knows full well that a block on hocow won't stop a SK kill, but he could choose not to kill and "confirm" hocow as the SK.

Suggests the miller block hocow again. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8438567&postcount=1895)

Post #1911 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8438745&postcount=1911) Talking to the SK again. See the pattern?

Seemingly fixated on the SK wouldn't you say? (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8439957&postcount=1933)

Suggests SK and Vig attacks...again. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8442745&postcount=1968)

Suggests FCOD is the SK AFTER we know he is either Mafia or Miller per my investigation. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8443906&postcount=2048)

And finally... this. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8444276&postcount=2085)

Of course, please draw your own conclusions from this evidence.

I stumbled upon quite a bit more in my re-read and heavy analysis of the thread. I think I know who the other Beat Cop is, so I will watch for your clues. Maybe we can work together without having to out you.

Do you want to know who the Godfather is? I am pretty sure I’ve figured it out and can provide all my reasoning to go along with it, but someone suggested I don’t reveal power roles except the serial killer. I know not to reveal a mason, or doctor, or GA, or miller, but dontcha wanna know who the GF is? :::biting at the bit to tell:::

Also, for future consideration, we need to look closely at Lakai as mafia. He tried to derail the Suburban Plankton lynch train in post #2194. I noticed this when re-reading.

[JSexton]

I would think that the Doc would be a much higher target to the mafia than a mason. I point the FOS squarely at JSexton!
I think the scum were afraid of a self-protect. I'd like to point out that if I was scum, the doc can counterclaim at any point to lynch me. Meaning that if endgame gets near and I'm still alive, you have that option. Be cautious of a scum gambit to do so, of course.

[MadTheSwine]

Damn nice work pimaspinner!RIP zuma and way to go town!

Do we kill Fern today?I think we should.

[JSexton]

YAY! I lived and can post this!!! I put several hours of work into it. First off, a salute to zuma, may you rest in peace my friend. *snip*

Wow. Post 999 is a biggie, I can't believe I missed it before.

The only thing I fear is that you've been right 100% of the time. Twice on Blaster, once on the confirmed scum FCoD, and now this? That's a lot of coin flips in a row for a beat cop.

Not impossible, though.

I stumbled upon quite a bit more in my re-read and heavy analysis of the thread. I think I know who the other Beat Cop is, so I will watch for your clues. Maybe we can work together without having to out you.
Don't post any more about this. Simply state your targets, and he/she can target the same. He/she can crumb as needed and come out if you've got enough confirmed scum to make it worthwhile.

Do you want to know who the Godfather is? I am pretty sure I’ve figured it out and can provide all my reasoning to go along with it, but someone suggested I don’t reveal power roles except the serial killer. I know not to reveal a mason, or doctor, or GA, or miller, but dontcha wanna know who the GF is? :::biting at the bit to tell:::
Good god yes! We want that person dead, so absolutely share.

[Rysto]

Sorry, pimaspinner, if I wasn't clear. I meant "Don't out pro-town power roles".

[Queuing]

Wow, good stuff Pima.

Since we have nothing to gain but something that I think is abut 98% sure from having BM kill Fern Forest, I see no reason to potentially lose another person tonight. Regardless of the fact that the SK seems to want a town kill, and has killed quite a few scum.

Lynch Fern Forest

Yes, I think you should out whomever you think is the godfather. Might as well. Don't want you taking that to the grave.

Continue to post whom you will be investigating. I still think its much more worthwhile for the other cop to investigate a different person. I really don't see how 50/50 isn't good enough for anyone. Or whatever it is. You say someone is scum, then dammit lets lynch them.

[Menocchio]

I buy pima's analysis, which goes a long way towards shutting down my suspicions of Jsexton. I guess I'll step off at least until later in the game or a credible counterclaim.
Unvote JSexton.
Now, what do we do about Fern? He's obviously pro-town, and obviously very very good at choosing targets. Now that we've got the vig on a leash, could it be in our interests to let him Fern play chicken with us for a while? Try to find other mafia, or at least act as more chaff for the mafia to target without actually killing a townfolk?

Basic strategy says no, but the SK has such a great record that I think it's worth considering.

[Hockey Monkey]

I am pretty sure I know who the Godfather is. He is immune from night kills from both the SK and the Vig. Fern Forest tried to kill him, but failed. He then asked for both the SK and Vig to target him in case of a “block”. Fern Forest knew that his hit didn’t go through, but couldn’t out himself as the SK to reveal the identity of the Godfather. Now go back and read my above posts on Fern Forest, especially #885. Autolycus is the Godfather. The only problem with a double hit is that the GF is totally immune to night kills, and that plan would not have worked, but it would have served to make Blaster Master suspicious of Autolycus as the GF if his kill didn’t go through. Then Blaster Master would have been able to put a voice to that, and direct him to be lynched.

And now with Queuing's analysis of kivvik (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8453793&postcount=2370), I feel that Autolycus is definitely the Godfather.

With this new information now in hand, my thoughts are to lynch Autolycus, and have Blaster Master take out Fern Forest tonight.

[Rysto]

Oh, I think I've figured it out. Fern Forest said yesterday that they want sturmhauke dead. Fern Forest is the SK -- if Fern Forest wants somebody dead, he can kill them himself. Except for the Godfather. And on Night 2, there was only 2 deaths. Either the Mafia or SK failed to kill someone.

[MadTheSwine]

Wow. Post 999 is a biggie, I can't believe I missed it before.

The only thing I fear is that you've been right 100% of the time. Twice on Blaster, once on the confirmed scum FCoD, and now this? That's a lot of coin flips in a row for a beat cop.

Not impossible, though.


Good god yes! We want that person dead, so absolutely share.


I gotta believe that is the correct read plus pima makes a damn good case against Fern and if it is a misread, Fern could still very well be mafia.
I think we neeed to string Fern up today to make the Doc's job a little easier.

I think it's a good idea to share your thoughts on the GF pima

[Rysto]

Oh. Never mind then. Nice work, pimaspinner.

Vote Autolycus

[Queuing]

Ok, I will follow you. I was actually wondering if one reason kivvik was trying so hard to paint Autolycus with the town brush was because he was the godfather, and of utmost importance to the Scum. However I dismissed this idea because I didn't think it would be a great idea for any scum to be openly protecting of the godfather.

unvote Fern Forest
Lynch Autolycus
Assassinate Fern Forest

[Malacandra]

Fern Forest goes down without a doubt. A lynch sounds good to me. But we should still pick a Vig target on the off chance of a blunder. And yes, speak up about the Godfather if he's been spotted.

[Menocchio]

Hell, you don't have to tell me twice to lynch Autolycus. Him being the GF makes perfect sense. The persona is too obvious to waste on a lynch, while it invites investigation which could only further deflect suspicion.

[Hockey Monkey]

Wow. Post 999 is a biggie, I can't believe I missed it before.

The only thing I fear is that you've been right 100% of the time. Twice on Blaster, once on the confirmed scum FCoD, and now this? That's a lot of coin flips in a row for a beat cop.

Not impossible, though.




Which is why I spent a significant amount of time investigating the result. I didn't know if I could trust it either. It was not the answer I was expecting. With what I came up with I'm about 90% confident that Fern Forest is the SK. Maybe I am incredibly lucky? :D

[Malacandra]

Fern Forest goes down without a doubt. A lynch sounds good to me. But we should still pick a Vig target on the off chance of a blunder. And yes, speak up about the Godfather if he's been spotted.

Heh. Too darn slow.

By the way, I want to be the first to point out that FCoD's apparent validation of me as town is obvious tosh now we know he wasn't the (a?) Miller. Fortunately for my case this doesn't mean I'm scum. :)

Assassinate Fern Forest

[Rysto]

You know, this could also test JSexton's claim. If Autolycus is not the Godfather, he must have survived for some other reason. That pretty much would have to be the Doc. JSexton claims that MadTheSwine was protected that night. If Autolycus is not the Godfather, that puts a lot of doubt on JSexton's claim.

[StarvingButStrong]

Yippee! I danced the night away, and two more Mafia are dead! Way to go, BlasterMaster and SK.



Also kudos to Pimaspinner for fantastic work! IDs on SK AND the GF?? Super.


So, who does it make sense to kill first? Feeling greedy, I'd like up to figure out who two more mafia are, then we can lynch the GF, aim the SK and Vig at the other two targets.

Unless...if we wipe out all the Mafia, then the SK wins, yes? So maybe Godfather tonight, then Vig the SK.

Must think on this.....but wow! What a turn around in mood from Day 2 Dawn to Day 3 dawn.

:) :) :)

[MonkeyMensch]

I am pretty sure I know who the Godfather is. He is immune from night kills from both the SK and the Vig. Fern Forest tried to kill him, but failed. ... The only problem with a double hit is that the GF is totally immune to night kills, and that plan would not have worked, ...
I may be off base here, but at least one set of the rules says the GF is only immune from Vig kills. Am I missing something?

[JSexton]

I buy pima's analysis, which goes a long way towards shutting down my suspicions of Jsexton. I guess I'll step off at least until later in the game or a credible counterclaim.
Unvote JSexton.
Now, what do we do about Fern? He's obviously pro-town, and obviously very very good at choosing targets. Now that we've got the vig on a leash, could it be in our interests to let him Fern play chicken with us for a while? Try to find other mafia, or at least act as more chaff for the mafia to target without actually killing a townfolk?

Basic strategy says no, but the SK has such a great record that I think it's worth considering.
Math time.
We know there aren't more than 10 scum to start, cause the mod said so. I think 9 is the most realistic top end, given the 10 vote to lynch rule. How low could it go? 8, certainly. 7? That seems too small, given that the mafia don't have any powers other than a GF. So I think 9 is the likelist, but 8 is possible.

We've got 4 dead scum. Say pima did manage to figure out the godfather, and we lynch that person. 5 scum. BM and Fern both hit mafia. 7 scum dead. We're still at least one away from being out of scum. At this point, we HAVE to kill the SK. Which means we have to lynch correctly, failing that, Blaster has to hit. Otherwise, we risk the SK taking out the last scum and winning.

So it kinda depends on how certain we are that Fern is the SK, and how many scum we think we can hit. Remember, we can potentially hit 2 mafia overnight.

I think we can let Fern live for now, but if we lynch mafia correctly today, we need to be ready to lynch Fern tomorrow.

[MadTheSwine]

.

With this new information now in hand, my thoughts are to lynch [B]Autolycus, and have Blaster Master take out Fern Forest tonight.

That sounds good to me,but we don't want SK to kill anyone tonight do we? A miller needs to block Fern tonight.

Vote Autolycus

Vig Fern Forest

[Hockey Monkey]

I may be off base here, but at least one set of the rules says the GF is only immune from Vig kills. Am I missing something?

I PM'd NAF with a rules query addressing this, because I wanted to be sure when I layed out my case. He is immune from all night kills from both the Vig and the SK. Even if double targeted.

[Queuing]

One thing I am wondering about:

Pimaspinner openly admitted that he was going to investigate either Suburban Plankton or Fern Forest, whomever was left after the lynching.

Knowing this, why would the SK leave him alive? Same reason the mafia did? Didn't want to risk a block? To me, if I was the SK, this would have been a risk that was worth taking. Does the doctor protect from all attempted kills? Or just one? Or was Fern Forest willing to rely on the chance that Pimaspinner would be unlucky?

I am not changing my vote. I still trust Pimaspinner. I just find this very odd.

[MonkeyMensch]

I PM'd NAF with a rules query addressing this, because I wanted to be sure when I layed out my case. He is immune from all night kills from both the Vig and the SK. Even if double targeted.

Excellent. Thanks.

[StarvingButStrong]

I can't see any benefit to leaving the GF running around. So

Vote Autolycus


Vig Fern Forest

[JSexton]

Interesting. The main reason I was calling autolycus town was that I was reading Masonhood into his posts. His talk about getting yelled at by his buds I though translated in Masons hammering him. If he's not a mason, then I retract my endorsement. As a ploy to draw investigations as GF, his play makes perfect sense.

[NAF1138]

...

[Rysto]

One thing I am wondering about:

Pimaspinner openly admitted that he was going to investigate either Suburban Plankton or Fern Forest, whomever was left after the lynching.

Knowing this, why would the SK leave him alive? Same reason the mafia did? Didn't want to risk a block? To me, if I was the SK, this would have been a risk that was worth taking. Does the doctor protect from all attempted kills? Or just one? Or was Fern Forest willing to rely on the chance that Pimaspinner would be unlucky?

I am not changing my vote. I still trust Pimaspinner. I just find this very odd.
Gambler's fallacy?

[Fretful Porpentine]

I don't mean to rain on a perfectly good lynching parade here, but if Fern Forest is really the Serial Killer, does it make sense for him to talk that much about the Serial Killer? Making the point -- once or twice -- that the serial killer is likely to play on the town's side would be prudent; keeping such a high profile and mentioning the SK in more than a dozen different posts just seems like it ... wouldn't.

And since there's only one Serial Killer and a one-in-seven chance that a cop who's wrong is going to get a Serial Killer reading, it seems to me any given, one-time reading of SK is significantly more likely to be a false positive than a true reading. No?

OTOH, I am all but convinced about Autolycus, because Menoccio's point makes a hell of a lot of sense.

[Queuing]

I agree that it seems somewhat fishy that Fern Forest would talk so much, as well as not even try to kill pimaspinner, but what do we have to lose?

We lynch Autolycus (I also agree with the reasons given by Menecchio, and think that is a hell of a play by Autolycus, ballsy and could have worked very easily, has to this point).

Then BM kills Fern Forest. BM has to kill regardless so we might as well aim him at someone who might be the SK. If not, well we may lose another citizen sure, but the reason Fern Forest was being investigated by Pimaspinner in the first place was because he was next on the lynch list.

We need to get the SK, and bring it down to a 1 night kill status. There is *probably* 5 Scum left. We should be able to win that battle by 1 to 1 kills.

[Pleonast]

I like pima's reasoning. Lynch Autolycus. Assassinate Fern Forest. BUT, let's not be in a hurry here. I'll unvote if we get too close to starting the timer before, say Friday.

Question to NAF: can I reveal another Mason in my one post after death?

[Hockey Monkey]

I don't mean to rain on a perfectly good lynching parade here, but if Fern Forest is really the Serial Killer, does it make sense for him to talk that much about the Serial Killer? Making the point -- once or twice -- that the serial killer is likely to play on the town's side would be prudent; keeping such a high profile and mentioning the SK in more than a dozen different posts just seems like it ... wouldn't.

And since there's only one Serial Killer and a one-in-seven chance that a cop who's wrong is going to get a Serial Killer reading, it seems to me any given, one-time reading of SK is significantly more likely to be a false positive than a true reading. No?

OTOH, I am all but convinced about Autolycus, because Menoccio's point makes a hell of a lot of sense.

It wasn't really high profile, in the sense that I had not even suspected Fern Forest of the SK role. Only when looking at all of the posts, did it become clear. I could very well be wrong. In my analysis post, I did not include posts that were not relevant to the case I was making. Fern had many many more posts, and these were sprinkled throughout.

Fern Forest all but got lynched yesterday and I am betting was hoping I would get a Town reading and vindicate him. That with the possiblility that I was being protected probably steered him toward a different target. Then when you factor in the Autolycus analysis, things start to make perfect sense to me.

[Queuing]

DAY 4 Votes

6 – Autolycus – (Fernforest, rysto, queuing, menecchio, MTS, starvingbutstrong, pleonast
0 - JSexton – (Menecchio
Unvote – (menecchio
0 - Fern Forest – (queuing
Unvote – (queuing

The vig count is the same, except it is 6 for Fern Forest

[Hockey Monkey]

DAY 4 Votes

6 – Autolycus – (Fernforest, rysto, queuing, menecchio, MTS, starvingbutstrong, pleonast
0 - JSexton – (Menecchio
Unvote – (menecchio
0 - Fern Forest – (queuing
Unvote – (queuing

The vig count is the same, except it is 6 for Fern Forest

I was the first to vote Auto, so make it 7

[JSexton]

I like pima's reasoning. Lynch Autolycus. Assassinate Fern Forest. BUT, let's not be in a hurry here. I'll unvote if we get too close to starting the timer before, say Friday.

Question to NAF: can I reveal another Mason in my one post after death?
My own opinion only, but I feel that the one post is meant only for "bah, go team" and nothing more. You're dead, after all, and the dead don't talk. I feel that the long-winded posts post-death by a couple players are against the spirit of the rule.

It's generally banned behavior on mafia sites. That said, it's of course up to NAF to rule on.

[Hockey Monkey]

DAY 4 Votes

6 – Autolycus – (Fernforest, rysto, queuing, menecchio, MTS, starvingbutstrong, pleonast
0 - JSexton – (Menecchio
Unvote – (menecchio
0 - Fern Forest – (queuing
Unvote – (queuing

The vig count is the same, except it is 6 for Fern Forest

actually, fern forest hasn't posted yet.

7 - autolycus - pimaspinner, rysto, queuing, menocchio, madtheswine, starvingbutstong, pleonast

[hocow]

Well, I feel confident that JSexton is town based on 2 known scum trying hard to have him lynched yesterday.

I also believe that Autolycus could very well be the GF. It makes sense that he would be so blatant with his mob speak and live so long.

Malacandra, I have never been so suspicious of you as I am right now. I noticed you voted for a VIG kill of Fern Forest, but did not respond at all to the claim of Auto being the Godfather. I think you may be trying to help your team by voting for the SK, but you are also being on the sly about a Godfather attack. Perhaps, you thought you would side with the town on one issue, thereby hoping we would overlook the fact that you didn't touch the GF claim. You're officially number one on my list of unconfirmed players.

But I agree with the town's strategy today, so:
Lynch Autolycus
Assassinate Fern Forest

[NAF1138]

I like pima's reasoning. Lynch Autolycus. Assassinate Fern Forest. BUT, let's not be in a hurry here. I'll unvote if we get too close to starting the timer before, say Friday.

Question to NAF: can I reveal another Mason in my one post after death?


No, you may only say goodbye. Once you are dead you can't speak anymore about the game.

[hocow]

Whoops.

Assassinate Fern Forest

[JSexton]

Also, I'm onboard with the prevailing plan, but there's no need to end the day yet, and we're already two away from lynch. Plenty of time to let other players check in, folks.

[MonkeyMensch]

Ahhh. The satisfied sigh of re-reading the thread now with so much more factiness in it.

Vote Autolycus. I had Autolycus in my gray-area shading to town just because I thought the whole schtick was having fun in a role-playing way. But that analysis jibes so nicely with his being GF.

As for a Vig vote I want to read Pima's posts (and nice work, by the way) in context, not as individual posts, so I'll be a few minutes(!).

[Fretful Porpentine]

It wasn't really high profile, in the sense that I had not even suspected Fern Forest of the SK role. Only when looking at all of the posts, did it become clear. I could very well be wrong. In my analysis post, I did not include posts that were not relevant to the case I was making. Fern had many many more posts, and these were sprinkled throughout.
Well, that's actually what I meant by "high profile" -- I'm saying that I don't think it makes sense for the SK to post a lot, period. It seems to me that the sensible thing to do would be to keep one's mouth shut and fly under everybody's radar.

That said, I can also see how a certain personality type might find it hard-to-impossible NOT to talk about it, so I guess I'm an agnostic about Fern Forest.

[Rysto]

Unvote Autolycus

Jeez, no need to start the clock yet, guys.

[Queuing]

Geez, I am horrible at this vote counts. I won't do it anymore. Where it said 'fern Forest" it should have been "pimaspinner". I was just trying to make people sort of aware that the magic number is close.

Sigh

My bad.

[Pleonast]

As I thought, the past death's door reveal isn't allowed.

Then, while we're cogitating who to lynch tomorrow--what's our Mason strategy? Because the default position of the last confirmed Mason going to the grave seems risky.

Unvote Autolycus. He still needs to be strung up, we need more time to think.

And Queuing, please either use matched parentheses or none at all. Your unbalanced "("s irk the hell out of me.

[Aguecheek]

Sweet! 2 scum and a fantastical recap by pimaspinner.

I'll hold off on the voting for now, per consensus, but right now I'm down with the town. Lynch Auto, assassinate Fern. (Not official! See! No colour).

[Malacandra]

Well, I feel confident that JSexton is town based on 2 known scum trying hard to have him lynched yesterday.

I also believe that Autolycus could very well be the GF. It makes sense that he would be so blatant with his mob speak and live so long.

Malacandra, I have never been so suspicious of you as I am right now. I noticed you voted for a VIG kill of Fern Forest, but did not respond at all to the claim of Auto being the Godfather. I think you may be trying to help your team by voting for the SK, but you are also being on the sly about a Godfather attack. Perhaps, you thought you would side with the town on one issue, thereby hoping we would overlook the fact that you didn't touch the GF claim. You're officially number one on my list of unconfirmed players.

But I agree with the town's strategy today, so:
Lynch Autolycus
Assassinate Fern Forest

Hamsters ate my post. I saw the FF analysis first and my earlier post was composed around bathing my son. Now I see there's plenty of momentum around Autolycus and I'm no more anxious to start the countdown than anyone else. That do?

Get rid of the SK as soon as possible. Uncontrolled kills don't help us, and "Good work SK. I'll probably lynch you in the morning" is no way to keep him onside.

[Rysto]

Pleonast, the way I see it, if there's only one Mason left, it's probably better to confirm them now. If there are more than one left, then leave them unconfirmed; they can confirm themselves.

But you should probably tell us how many Masons are left.

[Malacandra]

As I thought, the past death's door reveal isn't allowed.

Then, while we're cogitating who to lynch tomorrow--what's our Mason strategy? Because the default position of the last confirmed Mason going to the grave seems risky.

Unvote Autolycus. He still needs to be strung up, we need more time to think.

And Queuing, please either use matched parentheses or none at all. Your unbalanced "("s irk the hell out of me.

I suggest you pipe up while you can. One lone Mason might as well be vanilla. We have several power roles about the place and the scum can't hit them all. You can play chicken with them if you like but if you die tonight we've another unknown who could have been confirmed. Any dissenters?

[Hockey Monkey]

I suggest you pipe up while you can. One lone Mason might as well be vanilla. We have several power roles about the place and the scum can't hit them all. You can play chicken with them if you like but if you die tonight we've another unknown who could have been confirmed. Any dissenters?

I agree that if there is only one left, confirm him today so we know enough not to lynch him. If there are more than one, they can confirm each other.

[Pleonast]

Revealing the number of remaining Masons is not a good idea.

Here's what I suggest: one of the remaining Masons outs themselves (keep in mind I won't be around much on the weekend). I confirm that one. Night comes and one of us dies (to be fair, they should kill me first, but Mafia are scum, so who knows).

We repeat this ritual each day only one confirmed Mason is left. If a Mason is the last, he says as much. (I am not the last Mason. :D )

Why not to reveal exact numbers: the additional information helps the Mafia more than the Town.

[Pleonast]

Oh, and no matter what, I'm not going to reveal any Masons. I'll confirm, but it's up to them to decide whether/when to out themselves or not. I'm just trying to let the Town build up a consensus so the Masons can make an informed decision.

[Rysto]

You know, if Autolycus is the Godfather, that would mean that Fern Forest has targeted a Mafioso for three consecutive nights. The only time he's missed is on the first night, when it was completely random.

[Queuing]

I see no reason why the mason's need to come out. Or one more of them, or whatever. Or know how many there are.

If you die tonight Pleonast, and then we target a mason tomorrow who then claims, we will believe them absent a counter-claim. If there is a counter-claim we choose straws, lynch one and thereby confirm the status of the other.

Only when there is one mason left should they out themselves. That way we will know not to believe scum in mason clothing.




/my vote lists

Since they never seem to be correct, I won't bother anymore. The 1 parenthesis is because the information isn't complete yet! geez, first kat and now you!

But fine, if for some reason I am actually 100% confident my vote list is correct, and I post it again, I will close them, k?

/my vote lists off

[Queuing]

If you die tonight Pleonast, and then we target a mason tomorrow who then claims, we will believe them absent a counter-claim.

This should read:

If you die tonight Pleonast, and then IF we target a mason tomorrow who then claims, we will believe them absent a counter-claim.

[brewha]

Auto as GF makes perfect sense. Go high profile so the detective investigates him early and finds him town. It also makes the vig and sk waste a kill if they go after him.

Well played mafia, but we're on to you!

Lynch Autolycus

Vig Fern Forest

I don't see any reason to delay the countdown.

I agree, the masons should stay in the shadows. I see no advantage to the town by them outing themselves.

[Hockey Monkey]

I am keeping a vote count by the way. Autolycus is at 7. I agree we can have much more discussion about this before we start the clock. I'll be happy to post updated vote counts as needed. (I don't keep up with un-votes though).

The Unknown
Aguecheek
ArizonaTeach
Autolycus - Godfather?
brewha
Jsexton - Doctor?
Fern Forest - Serial Killer?
Fretful Porpentine
glee
hocow
Kat
Lakai
MadTheSwine
Malacandra
Menocchio - Citizen?
MonkeyMensch
Pygmy Rugger
Queuing - Citizen?
Rysto
Smitty/cowgirl
StarvingButStrong
Storyteller0910
Sturmhauke

The Confirmed
Blaster Master - Vigilante
pimaspinner - Beat Cop
Pleonast - Mason

The Dead
CaerieD - Detective
Captain Carrot - Mason
cowgirl one - Citizen
Dnooman - Citizen
Enfant Terrible - Citizen
Gadarene - Citizen
nesta - Mafia
One and Only Wanderers - Citizen
Winston Smith - Citizen
Suburban Plankton - Mafia
Kivvik - Mafia
Flying Cow of Doom - Mafia
Zuma - Mason

[Malacandra]

If you die tonight Pleonast, and then we target a mason tomorrow who then claims, we will believe them absent a counter-claim. If there is a counter-claim we choose straws, lynch one and thereby confirm the status of the other.

Only when there is one mason left should they out themselves. That way we will know not to believe scum in mason clothing.



I'll buy that. It achieves the same positive results as naming the Masons now, and potentially keeps them alive longer.

[NAF1138]

I am keeping a vote count by the way. Autolycus is at 7.

8 now

[Hockey Monkey]

Now 8 for Autolycus

[MadTheSwine]

I see no reason why the mason's need to come out. Or one more of them, or whatever. Or know how many there are.

If you die tonight Pleonast, and then we target a mason tomorrow who then claims, we will believe them absent a counter-claim. If there is a counter-claim we choose straws, lynch one and thereby confirm the status of the other.

Only when there is one mason left should they out themselves. That way we will know not to believe scum in mason clothing.

I disagree.I like Pleonasts idea about one of the masons claiming,if Pleonast dies,then someone makes a claim of mason,we got nothing to go on.

[Santo Rugger]

Can anybody come up with a compelling reason why we -shouldn't- lynch Auto? Since it's so close to 10, I'll hold off for a bit, at least until he has a chance to defend himself.

[Santo Rugger]

I disagree.I like Pleonasts idea about one of the masons claiming,if Pleonast dies,then someone makes a claim of mason,we got nothing to go on.

I think Queuing's right. If there's a false claim or false counter claim, one of them will be lying, giving us basically a 1:1 trade, which is very much in our favor at that point. (Assuming the SK is not around at that point).

[storyteller0910]

Well, now we're in business! Well done all around, pima, and everyone!

Pending a re-read I'll say a few quick things:

(1) That we all need to slow way down. I see 8 votes already, and I'm just reading through this for the first time. There are plenty of people who haven't contributed at all yet - including, very notably, Autolycus and Fern Forest - and there's almost certainly something to be learned from how they respond to all of this.

(2) That we should be very careful about assuming that we can "aim" the SK in the same way we have the Vig; the SK is not on our side, and it's worth remembering that.

(3) That if Auto and Fern are indeed scum of one sort or another, then most of my key assumptions so far have been wrong, wrong, wrong.

Anyway, once more into the breach. What is re-reading this thread going to be like when we've reached Day 7 or 8?

[JSexton]

Can anybody come up with a compelling reason why we -shouldn't- lynch Auto? Since it's so close to 10, I'll hold off for a bit, at least until he has a chance to defend himself.
We have some good discussion about strategy going on. No reason to put and end to it yet.

[JSexton]

I think Queuing's right. If there's a false claim or false counter claim, one of them will be lying, giving us basically a 1:1 trade, which is very much in our favor at that point. (Assuming the SK is not around at that point).
I agree with this. If we were in dire straits, I'd want at least a couple claimed masons at all times. As it is, we can afford to trade off lynches if mafia try claiming masonhood.

The only thing we need to know is when the LAST mason claims, so that no more can sneak on after they're all dead.

[Autolycus]

I's the godfather? Yeah, and JSexton's the tooth fairy. I'lls defend myself from you crazies later, cuz me thinks it's more beneficial-like to watch everyone get there pantiez in a bunch first. You catch more flies with a web of lies is what mum always said.

[Santo Rugger]

We have some good discussion about strategy going on. No reason to put and end to it yet.

Yep, that's why I didn't vote for him yet. I wasn't asking why we shouldn't lynch him right away, I was trying to see both sides of his story. I'm sure he'll address them soon enough, though.

[cowgirl]

Hey folks. I started out with great intentions, spreadsheets and Google apps, oh my! But I just couldn't get caught up so my detailed analysis ends sometime after Pimaspinner claimed but before JSexton did. (I have read the whole thing a number of times.) I think that, along with pimaspinner's delightful discovery post, above, I have enough information.

Talk about coming in late to the party. I was ready to post just after NAF reported this "morning," but I got called away from my desk and by the time I got back the nooses were tightening around two new necks.

No matter, those necks were totally below my radar, so everything else I wrote is quite relevant. Well, as much as it ever was. Which I hope it is. A little. Anyhoo ...

I am for now taking the role claims at face value because it makes my head spin to try to untangle them, and after all the back-and-forth (particularly about Blaster Master) I don't think I can contribute any more than y'all already have.

+++

[I wrote this before Pima's revelation, and FF's actions don't surprise me at all.]

Serial Killer - Maybe it's just the agnostic in me talking but I haven't the slightest idea who this person might be or, indeed, any idea how we could recognize him/her, even through extensive discussion. They would act just like a townie but kill people at night. No breadcrumbs. I can't see how discussion of this point would be any more than random, and I found a lot of it up to now pointless at best, and at worst, to be a useful tactic for mafia to use: lots of discussion to look like they're participating, without actually voting for anyone. Besides, their top priority would be to find the SK (even if they won't kill him/her until later).

++++

Posts that are mostly things like odds, discussion of relative value of day kills vs night kills, focus on SK/Vig, etc - things other than fingering specific people - look a lot like smoke and mirrors to me. It is a good way to appear useful without actually saying anything. This is a tactic that I would probably use if I was mafia, because I would be worried about fingering people and having it used against me. These are "safe" conversations to have. I am additionally suspicious of posts hunting out the SK for the above reasons.

(Disclosure: I only thought of this after I was already on page a million, the night was late and the margaritas too plentiful, so I may have a bit of confirmation bias. Although I noted that confirmed or suspected scum were much more likely to point fingers and make actual arguments about actual people, I could easily have missed counter-examples.)

Here are the folks I noted doing it (not all of whom smell scummy to me):

Known scum Suburban Plankton (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435253&postcount=1804)
known scum kivvik (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435473&postcount=1819)
known scum FCOD (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8423740&postcount=1198) - most of his posts on Day 2 consist of repeating the BMc onditional arrangment to make sure we've all got it; day 3 is talking about vig/serial killer, etc
Fern Forest (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8431071&postcount=1689) - (this concern was echoed by brewha (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435686&postcount=1820))
Pygmy Rugger (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435305&postcount=1811)
Sturmhauke (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435397&postcount=1815); later defending (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8436599&postcount=1857) it
Lakai (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435433&postcount=1816)
StarvingButStrong (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8436004&postcount=1827) - of course, she later agreed with Queuing's assertion (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8439858&postcount=1929)

++++

There are three of you who do smell decidedly mobby to me, for the reasons above and for additional reasons as well:

Lakai
- makes votes with poor reasoning (here ( http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405878&postcount=295) and (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435064&postcount=1794) elsewhere (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414630&postcount=628))
- starts up Enfant Terrible and Queuing bandwagon here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407625&postcount=381)
- of course, he does say this (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415625&postcount=702), which seems like a decidedly towny thing to say I was wondering if there could be 10 mafia members when it only takes 10 votes to lynch someone? There has to be less than 10 right?
- has been generally helpful but not providing anything specifically useful other than voting for citizens (see above concern about smoke and mirrors folks)
- right in there feeding bandwagons after townies, but somehow not attracting suspicion himself

+++

Pygmy Rugger -
- Smoke and mirrors as outlined above.

- His role in that day of role claim craziness that ended with the conditional which took out two townies. Here is the vote count at post 1062, just before BM claimed:
7- Blaster Master - (Queuing, hocow, pimaspinner, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, Winston Smith)
5- Pleonast - (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton)
4- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio, glee)
4- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast)
3- Gadarene -(Smitty,Blaster Master, nesta)
Note that Pygmy Rugger is right in there. Then BM claimed vigilante (post 1085) and all hell broke loose.

How did Pygmy Rugger get dropped from the suspicion list? There was no defense and no reasoning for unvoting him, but somehow he got unvoted and two townies got dead.

This is Suburban Plankton (known scum)'s outline of the options from here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8423895&postcount=1213)

There are four people who between them have made about a zillion and one posts "today". Those people, along with their "primary suspects" are:
Blaster Master: suspecting Gadarene and Queueing
Gadarene: suspecting Blaster Master and Pleonast
Queueing: suspecting Blaster Master and Pleonast
zuma: suspecting JSexton, Gadarene, Queueing, and pimaspinner Why are Pygmy Rugger and for that matter Lakai left off that list? PM was doing plenty of pointing, and had much pointed at him, but he's not in this roll-up. Lakai was more of a pointer than a pointee that day but he's also not included among those who have made a "zillion and one" posts. Pygmy Rugger reposts this list shortly thereafter, perhaps to encourage people to forget that his name belongs there too?

- Here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8427336&postcount=1571) he says Blaster Master came up with the Vig conditional idea, which is untrue - StarvingButStrong did, here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8424279&postcount=1261) PM appears to me to be (a) building suspicion of BM and (b) supporting the idea that will lead directly to multiple townie deaths.

- This conditional (minus Pygmy Rugger, of course) is supported by Malacandra (status unknown) in #1266; FCOD (known scum) in #1268; and nesta (known scum) #1288 before any known or suspected townies jump in.

- And, on preview, his urgency to get Auto lynched today, and the day done, seems mighty funny to me.

+++

MadTheSwine

In rereading my notes I can't really convincingly argue that he is scum, just that he set off a number of minor suspicions. I'm happy to elaborate if anyone is interested. But I just can't forget about this (post 330 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406317&postcount=330))

You trust Menocchio for what reason? Two more scum here folks. Kill them when I am dead. Why the aggression? Just doesn't sit right.

[cowgirl]

Bah! Lousy no-editing. I previewed, and previewed, and previewed again, I say!



(Disclosure: I only thought of this after I was already on page a million, the night was late and the margaritas too plentiful, so I may have a bit of confirmation bias. Although I noted that confirmed or suspected scum were much more likely to point fingers and make actual arguments about actual people, I could easily have missed counter-examples.) Of course by scum I meant townies.

[zuma]

Looks like town may have turned a corner. Good Luck!

Off to the lounge...

[Queuing]

So I have just looked through all of Suburban Plankton's posts, and here is what I got:

post 369 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407289&postcount=369) SB calls for the lynching of glee. This is another known scum talking about glee. kivvik did it as well, but way later, in post 1709 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8431628&postcount=1709)
Why is this? Does anybody else suspect glee? Is this a case of trying to hide in the open or is glee town? Maybe s/he should be investigated?

In posts606 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414336&postcount=606) , 674 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415319&postcount=674) and 732 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8416182&postcount=732) Suburban points the FOS at BM and pleonast.

In post 737 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8416238&postcount=737) he tries to throw suspicion on me, basically by showing that Zuma and Menecchio had both voted for me. Also suggests Zuma as a cop.

post 821 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8417660&postcount=821) the FOS is still on BM and Pleonast. I get added to the list based on my trust lists. My trust list was the following:

Trust: Pleonast, Chrisk
Don't Trust: Sturmhauke, Gaderene, pimaspinner

He lists posts 327 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406283&postcount=327) and 437 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408430&postcount=437) as my trust lists. They did not change.

Don't really know why he FOS's me, except perhaps because I had put Pleonast on my trust list. Or could it be he didn't like my distrustlist? He had earlier defend the 1st day attempt (by me) to get Sturmhauke. He did so in post 283 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405793&postcount=283). Not sure if this means anything, just throwing it out there.

However in the post 821 (mentioned above) he also defends Autolycus!! Even more reason to believe we have ourselves the GF!

Guess what happens in post 900 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418858&postcount=900) ? Another confirmed scum defends Autolycus! In this post the FOS is at Pygmy Rugger but no vote is cast. He even compliments the error that someone caught in regards to Pygmy Rugger (I do not remember what this error was).

post 954 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8420104&postcount=954) The FOS is still on Pleonast. He also brings up ArizonaTeach, for what reason I do not know. He also encourages people to "stand by their votes".

Post 1144 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8423058&postcount=1144) more FOS at BM. Also mentions brewha, and then the rest of the post doesn't make much sense to me. However it seems to be answer to something brewha had posted.

post 1768 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8433788&postcount=1768) we have a long one. This is in answer to JSexton's post, and the FOS that JSexton had placed on a number of people. A number of whom it has been proven to be town. Here is the scum list of JSexton [is what is proven or suspected]:

Probably Scum:

Blaster Master –(SK) – [vig]
Pleonast – [mason]
Queueing
glee
Aguecheek
Gadarene – [town]
brewha
Fern Forest [sk]

Suburban doesn't much care for this list. Perhaps people should be investigated from it? The name of glee comes up again.

Suburban also voted for JSexton here.

post 1810 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435304&postcount=1810) he answers an accusation from lakia.

1873 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8437489&postcount=1873) FOS JSexton again.

1991 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8443028&postcount=1991) tries to save FCOD, and tries to throw some distrust on pimaspinner.

So what does all this mean to me?

Autolycus is the GF.
Glee needs to be investigated.
It wouldn't hurt if Sturmhauke was investigated as well.
Same with Aquecheek.
I suppose I should throw myself here as well, but I know I am town :).

[Queuing]

What strikes me from that post cowgirl is that lakai also defended Autolycus right here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407625&postcount=381) . Maybe I am looking for to many similarities right now, but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities that part of the plan hatched by the Mafia on night 1 was for Autolycus to roleplay. They could foresee that this might perhaps annoy some people as well as throw some suspicion his way. However him being the Godfather would come up as town. This could throw some suspicion onto the people who attacked him for acting like he did while at the some point throw some of the supposed townieness onto his defenders.

[Blaster Master]

The serial killer, whoever it is, is pretty damn good at it. Singly, the SK has managed to kill just as many mafia as we have all together. I mean, nesta and now kivvik? I wouldn't have called either of those.

Just want to point out that I FOSed kivvik yesterday in post 1874 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8437570&postcount=1874); he was, in fact, my main suspect in that line of reasoning, but because it seemed weak at the time, I didn't pursue it. His defense a few posts later was a bit suspicious as well. He would have been my first FOS today, had the SK not picked him off last night.

Anyway, I tend to agree with the general reasoning in this thread to this point, and the selected targets. I also agree that we should hold off a bit before pulling the trigger in the hopes that we can get more information to go on for tomorrow. As long as pimaspinner is right about either Autolycus or Fern Forest, I think it will actually put the town ahead for once, and if he's right about both, it puts us in very good position.

Either way, as I said yesterday, and especially because the night went well in our favor, my main target should now be the SK, so I'm strongly in favor of my targetting our town's main suspect for the SK.

Further, to Pleonast and the other masons, if there is only one other unclaimed Mason, you need to claim now, or we'll have no way to verify. However, if there is more than one (I suspect there's at least two, possibly three), then it's probably not in your favor to claim.

[brewha]

Post 1144 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8423058&postcount=1144) more FOS at BM. Also mentions brewha, and then the rest of the post doesn't make much sense to me. However it seems to be answer to something brewha had posted.



Blaster Master's mention of me was a bit of ribbing because of my flawed logic. I had a scheme to test whether or not Blaster Master was the vig. It was flawed because the miller blocks a person, not a role. This was my mistake, which I realized quickly after posting. Of course, with no editing, recanting my idea would only bring more attention to my screw up.

[brewha]

Oh, and if we agree that we need more time,

unvote Autolycus

But, FOS Autoylcus - Loudly!

[glee]

I didn't realise the Godfather was immune to the Serial Killer. :eek:

Godfather shows up as a regular townie if investigated, will survive being targeted for night kill by the Vigilante.


Apparently if the Miller blocks the Godfather's powers, the Godfather can be killed by the Vigilante.

The way it works is the Miller will submit a player name to me, if that person is a power player there power won't work that night. If the person is an ordinary Citizen then there will be no noticeable result. If a mafia member is targeted there is a 1/x chance (x being the number of living mafia members) that it will work. So if he targets the Godfather, and the Godfather is targeted by the Vigilante, the Godfather will still die.


But here Pimaspinner says:

"I PM'd NAF with a rules query addressing this, because I wanted to be sure when I layed out my case. He is immune from all night kills from both the Vig and the SK. Even if double targeted."

NAF1138, please can you clear this up?
Thanks. :)


Next I looked back at all of Autolycus' posts in the thread since the game started - it's a dirty job but someone had to do it! Mind you I listened to an entire DVD whilst doing it :rolleyes: )
They fall into these categories...

Content-free:
Analysis:
Wanted to Lynch:

He could be a terrible Town player (who we can well do without).
He could be the Godfather and wants to be investigated and 'cleared'.

But look! Here are known Mafia leaping to protect him :( :

I don't share the suspicion being placed on Autolycus. I don't think he's scum; I think he's just messing around.
...
One thing I did notice is that Autolycus suddenly seems to be all over the place, and actually has something to say, if I'm translating his posts properly. They do add a bit of color to the proceedings.



I don't think we gain anything at this point by lynching Autolycus.



Or a bunch of posts with clues hidden in roleplaying form. Diamonds(well, not -that- good) aren't hidden in plain sight, you know? Gotta go through a lot of dirt to get to them. I think he's dropped a few hints here and there, although some of his posts are certainly just fluff. I'm reading his antics and hints two ways though, and can't get a handle on which one I think is more likely. Or if I'm even on the right track.
I hesitantly say that he is harmless to us, possibly beneficial.
...
He could still be a mobster, but it's not my read of him.
...
Naturally I do not support the VIGging or SKing (although it's not like the SK is gonna listen to us all the time) of Autolycus. I still stand by him being pro-town
...
The only person I'm suspicious of at the moment is glee, just because they dumped on the idea of Autolycus being useful,
...
And his thoughts on Autolycus mirror my own, so hey, good vibes there
...
Autolycus was pretty controversial then, although he seems to be less so now


I particularly like this one - after Autolycus broke the rule about no editing, I suggested he should be kicked out the game. Then came:

And uh, I vote NAF doesn't WTFpwn Autolycus


Credit to Queueing for pointing this series of posts out. :cool:

Lynch Autolcyus
Vigilante kills Fern Forest

[Autolycus]

Youz guys think way's too highly of me. I wish I were that smart.

[Blaster Master]

Youz guys think way's too highly of me. I wish I were that smart.
Well, it looks like you're well on your way to a lynching, we're just trying to collect some information for tomorrow first. Do you, perhaps, have an inclination to defend yourself?

[NAF1138]

But here Pimaspinner says:

"I PM'd NAF with a rules query addressing this, because I wanted to be sure when I layed out my case. He is immune from all night kills from both the Vig and the SK. Even if double targeted."

NAF1138, please can you clear this up?
Thanks. :)



I knew this was going to be trouble when pimma asked me the question. Ok, I didn't say anything in the original rules about the SK and the GodFather. But I did decide that the same rules would apply to all night killers fairly early on in the game. So if the miller blocks the GF the GF can be killed by either the SK or the Vig.

[Autolycus]

Well, it looks like you're well on your way to a lynching, we're just trying to collect some information for tomorrow first. Do you, perhaps, have an inclination to defend yourself?

Ye'r a punk ya know that? Of course I's gonna defend myself. Later though. I'm still nursin' a hangover from Hell.

[glee]

Blast! I forgot to post my statistics on Autolycus:

Content-free: 44 (yes, forty-four meaningless posts :smack: )
Analysis: 6 (these included one illegal night post and one illegal edited post :( )
Wanted to Lynch: Blaster (4 times); ChrisK/JSexton; Pleonast; Zuma; Menocchio (twice); Storyteller and (best of all) AUTOLYCUS. :rolleyes:


So I have just looked through all of Suburban Plankton's posts, and here is what I got:

post 369 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407289&postcount=369) SB calls for the lynching of glee. This is another known scum talking about glee. kivvik did it as well, but way later, in post 1709 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8431628&postcount=1709)
Why is this? Does anybody else suspect glee? Is this a case of trying to hide in the open or is glee town? Maybe s/he should be investigated?


I don't mind being investigated, but the problem is that a) there are more likely Mafia and b) there's no reason to worry about me.

Let's face it - I've had two Mafia try to lynch me, while the Masons Zuma and Pleonast trust me.

[brewha]

Youz guys think way's too highly of me. I wish I were that smart.

Nice try Don Corleone! That's exactly what you'd like us to believe.

[Blaster Master]

I don't mind being investigated, but the problem is that a) there are more likely Mafia and b) there's no reason to worry about me.

Let's face it - I've had two Mafia try to lynch me, while the Masons Zuma and Pleonast trust me.

I agree, I think Pygmy Rugger, Aguecheek, and Lakai are higher on my scum-dar. Don't get me wrong, I'm still quite suspicious of you, glee, but not as much as I am of those two.

[Blaster Master]

I agree, I think Pygmy Rugger, Aguecheek, and Lakai are higher on my scum-dar. Don't get me wrong, I'm still quite suspicious of you, glee, but not as much as I am of those two.

Oh, add to that list hocow. I'd previously said she was my most likely suspect for SK, and if she wasn't that, was almost certianly mafia. Don't forget Autolycus's post where he said he thought she was doc...WTF? If Autolycus is any sort of scum, I'd look strongly in her direction with an investigation as well.

[glee]

I knew this was going to be trouble when pimma asked me the question. Ok, I didn't say anything in the original rules about the SK and the GodFather. But I did decide that the same rules would apply to all night killers fairly early on in the game. So if the miller blocks the GF the GF can be killed by either the SK or the Vig.

Please, please don't change the rules halfway through the game!

So what you're saying is that the Godfather is immune to both the SK and the Vig, unless a Miller blocks the Godfather, right?

[Pleonast]

Let's face it - I've had two Mafia try to lynch me, while the Masons Zuma and Pleonast trust me.Well, you've done great analysis, but this statement pings my scumdar.

[NAF1138]

Please, please don't change the rules halfway through the game!

So what you're saying is that the Godfather is immune to both the SK and the Vig, unless a Miller blocks the Godfather, right?

No rules have been changed. Simply a clarification. You are correct.

[kivvik]

Well, suck. Thus ends my first game of Mafia. At least I have free time now :p
Although I was sad to hear cowgirl say that the other thread is dull; I was hoping to have two good threads to read when I died.

Thanks for the fun and tripling my post count :) See y'all around.
/ghost
/haunt

[glee]

Well, you've done great analysis, but this statement pings my scumdar.

Sorry about that. :o

All I claim is that I have posted decent analysis, not that I have any special role. I only mentioned you two because you're confirmed townies who posted you trusted me.

I can add that I helped get the Suburban Plankton badwagon rolling. :)

[cowgirl]

Not to distract too much from the Auto/FF bandwagons (which I am happy to support but feel there's no need to rush) but ...

Ya think there's anything to be gleaned from FCOD's false miller claim?

(I forgot about that one when I said in my above post that I was accepting all the role claims at face value.)

Well, shit! I come back from Easter to this?

I'm probably a goner at this point, but I'll try to save myself.

I AM A MILLER.

This role kinda sucks. I knew pima was a cop since the beginning, as he kept FoSing me for no reason.

Anyway, I don't really have a lot of time as I have to be up really early for work tomorrow. Lynching me won't really help us find any scum...it'd be better to kill someone that isn't possibly a Miller. Remember, Millers always show up as Mafia to cops (assuming their investigation is correct).

Anyway, I'll just post my list of blocks and hope that I'm still alive in the morning.

Night 1 - I blocked Queuing. Since it didn't affect the kills that night, he isn't the SK or the Vig.
Night 2 - I blocked Malacandra. Since there were only two kills that night, I thought maybe I had hit something. As I've previously stated, I think having the Vig around right now is beneficial, so I didn't say anything.
Night 3 - I blocked Malacandra a second time. Since the Vig killed Winston and the SK killed nesta, I conclude that Malacandra isn't the Vig or SK.

It's possible that Malacandra is in the Mafia and I blocked the Mafia kill on the second night, but I doubt it. I really have no way to prove anything, so I'll just leave it at that. I am perfectly willing to use my ability as instructed by the town if I'm alive tomorrow.

--FCOD

Why would he say he blocked Malacandra twice? I don't think he (Mal) has twigged my radar one way or another.

(Also in that post above, I kept saying "PM" meaning Pygmy Rugger, for no reason I can think of. Apologies to all for the confusion and to Pygmy Rugger in particular for totally and repeatedly messing up your name.)

[Kat]

Based on pimaspinner's analysis of Autolycus I looked up the post where he listed his suspicions (post 1522 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8426322&postcount=1522)), and of the confirmed/claimed player-roles:

Blaster Master (vigilante): "I didn't trust him earlier, but now I do. He's either honest or the Godfather, IMO. Regardless he's a major player in this drama, so whatever happens to him, solid information will come."
chrisk/JSexton (presumed Doctor): he's guessing Mafia
Flying Cow of Doom (Mafia): he guessed Mafia, but made a joke out of it (one that I made first, which proves Auto is a thief! :D ) to imply that it's not a serious accusation--but perhaps something he could point at later to "prove" he was on the trail of the Mafia?
Gadarene (town): firm accusation of him being Mafia
kivvik (Mafia): had "????"
Menocchio (strongly presumed town): godfather, but admitted he had no evidence
nesta (Mafia): he guessed town
pimaspinner (beat cop): he guessed Mafia
Pleonast (Mason): wanted to say Mafia
Suburban Plankton (Mafia): he wasn't sure
Winston Smith (townie): "Either mafia or a really dumb townie."
zuma (Mason): he didn't know

Vague enough ("guessing Mafia", "leaning town") to be able to backpedal if needed. The only people he put strong opinions down for were Queuing as Mafia and Rysto as town (because everyone was backing Rysto as town, probably, and to buck that trend would have been suspicious).

I think pimaspinner might be right. Auto was probably hoping to get investigated fairly early on due to the Mafia-speak and get vindicated as a simple (yet annoying) citizen.

Are we still holding off voting for Autolycus until he comes in?

I can still vig-kill Fern Forest, though.

[Autolycus]

Are we still holding off voting for Autolycus until he comes in?


*waves*

[Hockey Monkey]

*waves*

He's stalling people....:::crosses arms and taps foot on the floor::::...if he can't come up with anything better than that, I'm all for getting the bus warmed up for his trip to the forbidden thread.

I want to hear from Fern Forest. He's oddly silent. :::crickets chirping:::

[Kat]

Correction: Are we still holding off voting for Autolycus until he comes in and defends himself? Or is he waiting for us to hit 10 votes before he opens his mouth?

[ArizonaTeach]

Yes, well, a few pages ago I said we need to look very, very closely at the people who desperately wanted JSexton dead. FCOD was the biggest, but that's moot. So much for what I thought was my big contribution. MadTheSwine (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8446329&postcount=2205) didn't believe JSexton, but...it's weak.
I don't believe Autolycus has any intention of posting a defense, since he keeps poking his head in here to increase his ratio of pointless to worthwhile posts. I am going to vote for him, but I don't want the clock to start until FernForest chimes in.

[Autolycus]

He's stalling people....:::crosses arms and taps foot on the floor::::...if he can't come up with anything better than that, I'm all for getting the bus warmed up for his trip to the forbidden thread

Hold yer horses, I iz thinkin'

[ArizonaTeach]

Oh,
PS: Go town! That was a pretty thrilling post to see after a couple days' downtime, no?

[Queuing]

I agree, I think Pygmy Rugger, Aguecheek, and Lakai are higher on my scum-dar. Don't get me wrong, I'm still quite suspicious of you, glee, but not as much as I am of those two.

I will agree with Lakai, and Aguecheek, but I forget the reasoning for Pygmy Rugger. Could anybody refresh my memory? (please? I don't want to go through 50 pages!). I had no real feeling either way about glee, I just find it odd that scum were going after her. It seems like an easy place to throw a vote without any real danger of getting lynched. I find it odd that people just throw votes out. Sturhmhauke did the same thing with Nesta.

[Queuing]

Why would he say he blocked Malacandra twice? I don't think he (Mal) has twigged my radar one way or another.


Personally, I think this is in favour of Malacandra. He was hoping that he would be believed, and not forced to test I suppose. He said me at first because of the large amount of distrust I had built up before the day 2 fiasco. He put Malacandra in there because he hadn't been on any radars, and he knew he wasn't scum. FCOD was hoping, I suppose, that he would live another night, that we would waste a cop investigation on someone who he knew wasn't scum (and could have been SK for all he knew) thereby saving a cop investigation on a potential real scum. That is my read on it at least.

[Kat]

I will agree with Lakai, and Aguecheek, but I forget the reasoning for Pygmy Rugger. Could anybody refresh my memory? (please? I don't want to go through 50 pages!).

The only time I remember Pygmy Rugger getting multiple votes was when he said that some people had posted that they were gonna be gone for a couple days. Someone noticed that they hadn't and theorized that meant those people had posted such comments on the Mafia board and PR forgot which board he read them on.

I forget who the people were. And I don't remember if that's the only time he was suspected. And I'm not going through 50 pages of thread right now either.

[Kat]

Come to think of it, I don't even remember if they were actual votes, or just a lot of vocal suspicion....

[glee]

I will agree with Lakai, and Aguecheek, but I forget the reasoning for Pygmy Rugger. Could anybody refresh my memory? (please? I don't want to go through 50 pages!). I had no real feeling either way about glee, I just find it odd that scum were going after her. It seems like an easy place to throw a vote without any real danger of getting lynched. I find it odd that people just throw votes out. Sturhmhauke did the same thing with Nesta.

It's not important, but I'm a him!.

[cowgirl]

... but I forget the reasoning for Pygmy Rugger. Could anybody refresh my memory?

I'll repost the reasoning for my suspicions about Pygmy Rugger from post 2439. I will add a summary (in case I wasn't clear):

Remember when Blaster Master claimed and there was all kinds of chaos that led to two townies getting smoked? How did we decide on those two townies? Pygmy Rugger was just as suspicious as the rest of them in the beginning but somehow avoided the noose. I suspect he was one of those mafia laughing their heads off as the townies chased after our shadows.

Repost:

- Smoke and mirrors as outlined above [i.e. posts with lots of sound and fury but no accountable finger pointing]

- His role in that day of role claim craziness that ended with the conditional which took out two townies. Here is the vote count at post 1062, just before BM claimed:
Quote:
7- Blaster Master - (Queuing, hocow, pimaspinner, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, Winston Smith)
5- Pleonast - (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton)
4- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio, glee)
4- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast)
3- Gadarene -(Smitty,Blaster Master, nesta)

Note that Pygmy Rugger is right in there. Then BM claimed vigilante (post 1085) and all hell broke loose.

How did Pygmy Rugger get dropped from the suspicion list? There was no defense and no reasoning for unvoting him, but somehow he got unvoted and two townies got dead.

This is Suburban Plankton (known scum)'s outline of the options from here

Quote:
There are four people who between them have made about a zillion and one posts "today". Those people, along with their "primary suspects" are:
Blaster Master: suspecting Gadarene and Queueing
Gadarene: suspecting Blaster Master and Pleonast
Queueing: suspecting Blaster Master and Pleonast
zuma: suspecting JSexton, Gadarene, Queueing, and pimaspinner
Why are Pygmy Rugger and for that matter Lakai left off that list? PM was doing plenty of pointing, and had much pointed at him, but he's not in this roll-up. Lakai was more of a pointer than a pointee that day but he's also not included among those who have made a "zillion and one" posts. Pygmy Rugger reposts this list shortly thereafter, perhaps to encourage people to forget that his name belongs there too?

- Here he says Blaster Master came up with the Vig conditional idea, which is untrue - StarvingButStrong did, here PM appears to me to be (a) building suspicion of BM and (b) supporting the idea that will lead directly to multiple townie deaths.

- This conditional (minus Pygmy Rugger, of course) is supported by Malacandra (status unknown) in #1266; FCOD (known scum) in #1268; and nesta (known scum) #1288 before any known or suspected townies jump in.

- And, on preview, his urgency to get Auto lynched today, and the day done, seems mighty funny to me.

[Kat]

It's not important, but I'm a him!.

Hell, he's already apologized for that!

Malacandra I promise I will never think you are a girl. For the rest of you (cowgirl excepted) I make no promises on your gender, and hereby apologize for that as well.

[Kat]

- His role in that day of role claim craziness that ended with the conditional which took out two townies. Here is the vote count at post 1062, just before BM claimed:
Quote:
7- Blaster Master - (Queuing, hocow, pimaspinner, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, Winston Smith)
5- Pleonast - (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton)
4- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio, glee)
4- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast)
3- Gadarene -(Smitty,Blaster Master, nesta)

Note that Pygmy Rugger is right in there. Then BM claimed vigilante (post 1085) and all hell broke loose.

How did Pygmy Rugger get dropped from the suspicion list? There was no defense and no reasoning for unvoting him, but somehow he got unvoted and two townies got dead.

Okay, I said I wasn't gonna look at 50 pages, but since cowgirl gave me an ending point to start at, here's the story of Pygmy Rugger's 4 votes:
Post 785 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8416961&postcount=785) referring to glee, Winston Smith and storyteller0910:
IIRC, those three all said they had IRL obligations for the next 48 hours or so. I, myself, was gone on Wednesday, and it took me this long to get caught up enough to the point where I felt comfortable posting. Give 'em a day or two, I'm sure they'll chime in soon enough. All three have had either a lot of posts, or succinct (sp) analysis to this point.
Post 788 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8416994&postcount=788), he added:
I agree with most of your reasoning. However, it is a RPG (Role Playing Game), and just as some of us have roles in the game, all of us have roles IRL. I wasn't able to vote on the first day because I had IRL obligations. Granted, my input most likely would not have changed any outcomes, but the game went on regardless. Just because those three are out of "town" for a couple days, visiting their grandmas or whatever, doesn't mean we should hold up the entire game for them. Just like my IRL town doesn't stop the presses when I'm out of town for a couple days.

That being said, I'm in favor of the 12 hour countdown, it only makes sence. Why should we cap an innocent without giving them a chance (and others the chance) to defend them fully. And give those in favor of said lynchings to change their minds. As has been said before, it only benefits the Mob to have flash judgements. Not to mention, I'm pretty sure the 12 hour thing has already been established.

Before those posts, Pygmy Rugger had no votes against him.

Post 795 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8417052&postcount=795), zuma votes Pygmy Rugger, saying:
Unbelievable. After all the damage the town suffered from a premature ending of day one, you want to do it again? There is nowhere near a concensus at this point, and we're still waiting for chrisk's replacement. Not to mention Winston Smith who pulled this stunt last time.

Post 802 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8417237&postcount=802), MadTheSwine quotes post 785 and says "I have only read through the last 10 pages once ...I don't recall any one of them saying such a thing.Course I may have missed it."
and then in post 860 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418321&postcount=860) votes for Pygmy Rugger, saying:
Those three are glee,Winston Smith and storyteller0910.

I reviewed the thread starting at page 7.
The only one that said anything like he might be away was storyteller0910 and on top of that didn't really say he was going to be away,just not able to add in depth analysis(Post 590).

storyteller0910 and my beloved Winston Smith both voted for Enfant.

Winston trusts storyteller in post 457

The point is... Pygmy got his threads confused and posted things here that were said in the Mafia thread.

I think these 4 goons need to be looked at,along with pimaspinner who defends all 4 of them in post 847.

Inpost 871 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418435&postcount=871), FCoD votes for Pygmy Rugger, based on MadTheSwine's posts.

In post 886 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418544&postcount=886), Menocchio votes for Pygmy Rugger, also based on MadTheSwine's posts.

Unless glee, Winston Smith and storyteller were all Mafia, which we know is not true, MadTheSwine's theory was false. So, the only vote with valid reasoning behind it is zuma's.

Based on signal vs noise ratio, I'm more suspicious of Autolycus's posts right now than Pygmy Rugger's. Especially since Auto is refusing to make any sort of response.

[Autolycus]

Based on signal vs noise ratio, I'm more suspicious of Autolycus's posts right now than Pygmy Rugger's. Especially since Auto is refusing to make any sort of response.

Great's logic ya got there, Playdoh. As fo' my tight-lips: "I cook no swine before its time."

[Kat]

I never claimed to be logical.

[Queuing]

Thanks Kat. Geez, you try to make a blanket apology and then BAM! someone still gets offended! :) Sorry, I will try to remember glee.

Thanks cowgirl. I mostly meant why BM suspected him, and how he garnered those 4 votes to begin with. I just don't remember anything particularly about him/her that is all.

I am assuming that the rest of this day (however long we let it go on) will be used to hash out some more suspects and decide who pima at least should investigate? Not that we have to direct him/her. Hell he has done an excellent job so far!

Personally I don't find his actions today to suspicious. I sort of want this day to end as well, just to get this game moving. I realize that it isn't necessarily the best thing, and don't want it to end today, but I really so no need to go past Friday at like noon or something. Plus ending it on Friday forces the scum to think about this game during the weekend, when it seems more people are unavailable. Any little advantage you know?

Waiting for Autolycus to make some sort of defense isn't going to happen. At least I don't think so. If he claims to be a miller we already know what to do. If he claims to be Doc, well to little to late for him. We kill him first, if it turns out he is the doc well JSexton comes next. If he claims to be GA there is no guarantee that role even exists. If he claims to be a vanilla citizen, we have killed our own before, no biggie if we do it again. So personally I don't really care what he says, in my mind we have proven that he is the GF.

On preview, thanks Kat. If that is all it is, I really think we have better targets. Such as Aguecheek and lakai, not to mention glee and (IMO) sturmhauke.

My order of advice for investigations would be:

glee
lakai
aguecheek
sturmhauke
pygmy rugger

On further preview it seems Autolycus is trying to convince us he is the beat cop. Not buying it unless he names names right now.

[Queuing]

Personally I don't find his actions today to suspicious. I sort of want this day to end as well, just to get this game moving. I realize that it isn't necessarily the best thing, and don't want it to end today, but I really so no need to go past Friday at like noon or something. Plus ending it on Friday forces the scum to think about this game during the weekend, when it seems more people are unavailable. Any little advantage you know?

To be clear the "he" this is referring to is Pygmy Rugger.

[Autolycus]

If he claims to be a vanilla citizen, we have killed our own before, no biggie if we do it again

O rly?

[Kat]

On preview, thanks Kat. If that is all it is, I really think we have better targets. Such as Aguecheek and lakai, not to mention glee and (IMO) sturmhauke.

I don't know if that is all that cowgirl has based her suspicions on, since she didn't link or quote the "smoke and mirrors" posts she was talking about. But Autolycus's "noise" posts were, well, pretty darn noisy and apparently more memorable in my mind than any that Pygmy Rugger posted. Plus, if pimaspinner is right about him being Godfather, it would explain why he wasn't afraid of bringing an investigation into his role.

On further preview it seems Autolycus is trying to convince us he is the beat cop. Not buying it unless he names names right now.

If he is the beat cop, he should come out and say it instead of trying to be coy. Because if he sits and waits until the last minute, we're going to be scrambling for another target, and no one is going to have time to do in-depth analysis.

On the plus side, if he is the beat cop, he appears to be hinting about MadTheSwine now.

[Autolycus]

[RP-OFF]

I'm going to karaoke very soon and will post my defense of this nonsense GF accusation later, so in like 3-5 hours or so. I dont think any defense will satiate the bloodlust of the lynch mob, but I'll try o_o;

[RP-ON]

[Kat]

*whines* But I can't wait 3-5 hours. I'm going to bed in two. :(

[Autolycus]

*whines* But I can't wait 3-5 hours. I'm going to bed in two. :(

Well in that case, clearly you have to get 27 votes and lynch me immediately ;)

[Queuing]

On the plus side, if he is the beat cop, he appears to be hinting about MadTheSwine now.

Hehe, I believe what you think is a hint towards MTS being scum is what I think the hint is to him be a cop.

Swine to pig to cop.

Personally, Autolycus, I hope your defense is in your mobtalk. I just want to see how long and indepth you can go with it. Oh, and that it doesn't involve a ladle :p

[Kat]

I'm allowed one vote per personality, right? That's 128 votes right there. ;)

[Santo Rugger]

<snip>
- His role in that day of role claim craziness that ended with the conditional which took out two townies. Here is the vote count at post 1062, just before BM claimed:
Quote:
7- Blaster Master - (Queuing, hocow, pimaspinner, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, Winston Smith)
5- Pleonast - (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton)
4- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio, glee)
4- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast)
3- Gadarene -(Smitty,Blaster Master, nesta)

Note that Pygmy Rugger is right in there. Then BM claimed vigilante (post 1085) and all hell broke loose.

How did Pygmy Rugger get dropped from the suspicion list? There was no defense and no reasoning for unvoting him, but somehow he got unvoted and two townies got dead.<snip>

From the seven votes for Blaster Master at that time, besides myself, we have:

Queuing: the town is fairly confident he's not scum
hocow: ??? suggested as serial killer
pimaspinner: pretty much confirmed as cop
Arizona Teach: ???
Gadarene: Confirmed
Winston Smith Confirmed

3-4 people the town is pretty confident in right now. I don't see how including me in a group like that shows anything.

Quote:
There are four people who between them have made about a zillion and one posts "today". Those people, along with their "primary suspects" are:
Blaster Master: suspecting Gadarene and Queueing
Gadarene: suspecting Blaster Master and Pleonast
Queueing: suspecting Blaster Master and Pleonast
zuma: suspecting JSexton, Gadarene, Queueing, and pimaspinner

I'm not sure how closely you read the Day Two clusterfuck debate, but those five people "Blaster Master, Gadarene, Queuing, and zuma" were making quite a few accusations with little information, and it turns out it's because some of them were so "pro town" that it started to get a little out of hand. The reason people stopped voting for me was (and I see it's been explained by Kat upon preview) because it was based on me thinking a couple people said they were going to be out of town for the weekend.

<snip>Here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8427336&postcount=1571) he says Blaster Master came up with the Vig conditional idea, which is untrue - StarvingButStrong did, here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8424279&postcount=1261) PM appears to me to be (a) building suspicion of BM and (b) supporting the idea that will lead directly to multiple townie deaths.<snip>

I did not say BM came up with the "Vig conditional idea". I said that BMcame up with the Vig conditional ideas that were being voted on at the time (see the quote below where he defined what the conditional was that he proposed us voting on). Also, at that time, several current confirmed townies were building their own cases against BM. You have to remember, day two was basically a clusterfuck giant FoS orgy, and we didn't have quite the information that's available to us now.

On another note, it looks like I have two plans at about even votes (I haven't had a chance to count.

Plan 1: No matter how Gadarene turns out, kill Winston Smith.
Plan 2: If Gadarene is scum, kill Queuing, if he's townie, kill Winston Smith.

I'm perfectly fine with either plan, but I do have a slight preference for plan one. Either way, I'm going to try to count up the votes for each plan. Give me some time to do so.

BTW, did you bring those nachos?

[Fern Forest]

I want to hear from Fern Forest. He's oddly silent. :::crickets chirping:::
Odd nothing. They don't like it when I don't show up to work and they block the board at work. And I had a big test today so I left right away and didn't read the board this morning.

Oh. Good, we killed three scum. This means I no longer have to worry to much about pissing you guys off and getting myself killed by you guys hurting the town in the process. I take back my retraction yesterday, I wasn't acting suspicious. You guys were acting paranoid. I was thinking like a member of team town, you guys were thinking of my actions through the idea that I wanted to keep myself alive no matter what. This was exacerbated by the fact that I give bad explanations. It's one of my big flaws. When I explain things I often leave out critical things because I assume people know the things that I know. Not unless they're mind readers. And so they think me odd. It often takes me a day or two of thinking till I get a good grasp of how to explain what my reasoning was.

I'm going to discuss the three suspicious things I did yesterday. Note how you guys kinda did it anyway. Although I fully admit you guys did it for differing reasons.

My first suspicious activity was to play out some odds. I listed a group of 5 people who I said were selected for the purity of their scuminess. And lo and behold the first mobster to go down under the lynch system was from my group. The odds are simply what they are. brewha asked how I could use them and then I showed him. If it turns out that a few more of those I mentioned are scum, take a look at brewha, he may have been trying to protect them.

Next I suggested offing FCOD by the VG which is what you guys ended up doing. A VG kill is a short blunt instrument. Take a look at the death of Winston Smith. He didn't know for certain he was going to die until night set and he was unable to defend himself. In fact he may have been certain he was going to live and only find out when it's too late to do anything about it. And what about the other conditional kill, Queuing? What if he was a power role? He might have been forced to claim even if he actually wasn't going to die that night.

On the other hand a lynching is an instrument of finesse, or at least it should be. The time limit is set and you know what is going to happen and when. This puts people under a lot of pressure. From that pressure interesting things happen. A lynch allows the town the most information from any kill. No second guessing whether or not things really went down they way we asked them to go down. We do it and we know.

So we have two instruments of death that we get to direct. Each has its own strengths and weaknesses. With deaths we want differing things out of them. Today you guys are doing the smart thing. I've come back scum. If you trust that it's better to leave my death to the VG while you go ahead and use the finesse and pressure of a lynch kill to try and get another mobster. It's easier to get mobsters with lynching then with the vigilante. That was my reasoning there.

Lastly I suggested a plan that we lynch JSexton. People flipped. And yet that is exactly what you guys were in the process of doing before he claimed. From very early on chhrisk was suspected by more and more townfolk. And yet I defended from from early on with increasing certainty as I began to feel it more and more likely that the mafia was pushing what they saw as an easy free kill. When FCOD claimed and the town was quite likely about to be stuck flailing around for a person to kill I had my idea. I took my gauntlet and threw it down at the feet of those that suspected him. My thinking was you guys think he's scum, I say he ain't. I'm willing to put my life on the line and I expect you guys to do the same. So go ahead and kill him. If I'm wrong and he's scum then kill me. You'll get a 1 for 1 trade and it's in the towns favor and I'm happy. If I'm right, then kill the person who I felt was most scummy in his pursuit because I'm very certain he's scum and that the town will get a 1 for 1 trade and it will be in the town's favor.

14 hours after I posted this extremely controversial plan and had, according to you guys, began to act extermeley suspiciously JSexton had gone from having 4 votes (FCOD, suburban plankton, rysto, sturmhauke: source # 2008) to having 17 (post 2154). You guys still selected to lynch him over me. I suggested he be lynched because you guys wanted to.

Naturally he would have been very suspicious of my actions since he doesn't know what I am and may (now we know definitely) have been quite unwilling to trade his life for that of a scum. If my preferred target was scum then I assume the mafia would have been against it too. But for the town, why be so certain of JSexton's scuminess on your own but in the shape of my plan worry that he's town?

Unfortunately for me I am bad at explaining myself and was ashamedly cowed into seeing things your way by the wall of noise put up against my idea. But after thinking about it for a few day or so I now think my idea was a pretty good one. For the town.

Of course it all falls apart if JSexton were to claim a power role like he did. And I can't say that it would have gone as well as it did if I had the blessings of a silvered tongue. Surely in that alternate universe we also would have unvoted JSexton but as to what happened afterwards who can say. All I can say is that I completely disagree with you folks that I was acting in the worst interest of the town. With the information I had and with the mood of the town at the time I proposed three ideas that were beneficial to the town.



Ok, now I can die in peace. Oh, am I the SK? No. Thankfully no since it's almost a guaranteed loss. Have I been trying to hide in plain sight like I've been suspecting of Autolycus? I have not. It looks like our beat cop finally got one wrong. Is it better for the town to take the chance and kill me tonight at Blaster Master's hands? I suppose so. The scum content of the town has gone from a probable 26% to to 31% to 24%. And you have a possible two other kills that might go the town's way. Take long hard looks at brewha and Sturmhauke when I die. They may have been trying to take down easy town kills like JSexton and apparantly myself.



Now to read all the posts you guys made while I was composing this.

[Queuing]

Ok, I am done reading through what FCOD posted. A lot of it was vote counts, as pointed out by cowgirl. Anyway I did it so here goes:

Post 240 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405317&postcount=240)
-defends kivvik as pleonast voted her, FOS pleonast

Post 263 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405584&postcount=263)
-votes for autolycus due to mobtalk

Post 270 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405667&postcount=270)
-points out fallacy of ideas of why the 1st 3 were killed

Post 278 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?)
-confused by chrisk

Post 347 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406788&postcount=347)
-responds to pima FOS with a joke. GJ by Pima to cover it by making fun of FCOD name

Post 427 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408374&postcount=427)
-unvote autolycus, votes enfant
- posts a trust list:
I trust: Rysto, glee, myself
I distrust: Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, Queuing, and Aguecheek

Post 593 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414172&postcount=593)
-votes chrisk
-points out caerieD’s mistake
-posts another trust list:
I trust: Menocchio, Rysto, glee
I don't trust: Blaster Master, Queuing, Aguecheek

Post 624 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414602&postcount=624)
-asks pima why he is always being suspicious of him, lucky that FCOD didn’t push for a pimaspinner kill at night

Post 631 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414684&postcount=631)
-defense of some accusations from Fern and pimaspinner, mostly asking why he is so suspicious of him. Another bullet dodged by the good folks here

Post 709 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415697&postcount=709)
-responds to a vote from fretful porpentine for FCOD. Vote came for supposed bandwagon jumping (auto/EF/Chrisk)


-Post 751 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8416473&postcount=751) posts a vote list (one of many to come)
-expresses anger at chrisk for leaving the game.

Post 871 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418435&postcount=871)
-unvotes chrisk, votes for PR

Post 896 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418762&postcount=896)
-again wonders about pimaspinner

Post 942 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8419952&postcount=942)
-anger at FF for talking to much and for trying to influence votes, again a vote count

Post 1198 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8423740&postcount=1198)
-unvote PR, votes for me, vote count

Post 1268 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8424305&postcount=1268)
-agrees with starvingbutstrong plan in regards to day 2 killing of conditional kills

There were a number of posts in between these 2, however they all dealt with the conditional kill arguments with Zuma, and whom to kill on those conditions.

Post 1732 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8432257&postcount=1732)
-FOS at Jsexton
-explanation of voting record, nothing to big here

Post 1754 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8433023&postcount=1754)
-votes JSexton

The remaining posts are arguments with JSexton about whether or not the Vig kill was worth it, his fake role claim, etc.

What do I get out of this? For one, we are lucky the FCOD is not more persuasive and didn't go after Pimaspinner sooner. Secondly, more scum having public fights with JSexton. I suppose this could be a smoke screen, but JSexton is somewhat backed in a corner. He has claimed, he says he is the doctor. We can believe him until the odds become more in our favour, drastically so ( I would say somewhere around 2 suspected scum left depending on how long it takes us). So I don't think it is, and it really doesn't matter right now.

Lastly, I look at FCOD's trust lists, with no explanation as to how he come to these, are once again:

I trust: Rysto, glee, myself
I distrust: Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, Queuing, and Aguecheek (post 427)

followed in post 593

I trust: Menocchio, Rysto, glee
I don't trust: Blaster Master, Queuing, Aguecheek

It can easily be explained why Menecchio made it to the second list, he is the crumb. Rysto has been town trusted since the very beginning. Lo and behold what name appears again? glee.

I don't see why glee had all of this mafia attention. Glee was never even on my radar, and as far as I can tell, no one but confirmed scums radar either. What is up with that?

Aguecheek also makes the distrust list (as do I) both times. No reasons are given, but we know that I made it on like 10 distrust lists, so that could explain me, but why aguecheek?

[Fern Forest]

Suggests FCOD is the SK AFTER we know he is either Mafia or Miller per my investigation.[/URL]It was possible that FCOD was the serial killer, unlikely but possible. If you're wrong then NAF spins a dial and whatever comes up comes up.


Do you want to know who the Godfather is? I am pretty sure I’ve figured it out and can provide all my reasoning to go along with it, but someone suggested I don’t reveal power roles except the serial killer. I know not to reveal a mason, or doctor, or GA, or miller, but dontcha wanna know who the GF is? :::biting at the bit to tell:::Why would it hurt to talk about who you suspect is the GF?

[Kat]

Lastly, I look at FCOD's trust lists, with no explanation as to how he come to these, are once again:

I trust: Rysto, glee, myself
I distrust: Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, Queuing, and Aguecheek (post 427)

followed in post 593

I trust: Menocchio, Rysto, glee
I don't trust: Blaster Master, Queuing, Aguecheek

It can easily be explained why Menecchio made it to the second list, he is the crumb. Rysto has been town trusted since the very beginning. Lo and behold what name appears again? glee.

I don't see why glee had all of this mafia attention. Glee was never even on my radar, and as far as I can tell, no one but confirmed scums radar either. What is up with that?

Aguecheek also makes the distrust list (as do I) both times. No reasons are given, but we know that I made it on like 10 distrust lists, so that could explain me, but why aguecheek?

Well, let's see. Things Aguecheek did before post 427:
Post 363 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407731&postcount=393)
-Voted for sturmhauke
-FoS-ed Autolycus
-Discussed Night 1 victims

Post 400 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407829&postcount=400)
-Discussed the Serial Killer
-Discussed Night 1 victims

Post 404 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407894&postcount=404)
-Got voted for by sturmhauke

Post 421 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408314&postcount=421)
-Got distrusted by Fretful Porpentine

[Fern Forest]

Why would it hurt to talk about who you suspect is the GF?Ok now I've caught up and see you've addressed this already.

I must say it is very interesting to see people analyze my posts so carefully. It's kinda like hearing your voice on tape.

[Lakai]

There are three of you who do smell decidedly mobby to me, for the reasons above and for additional reasons as well:

Lakai
- makes votes with poor reasoning (here ( http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405878&postcount=295) and (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435064&postcount=1794) elsewhere (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414630&postcount=628))
- starts up Enfant Terrible and Queuing bandwagon here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407625&postcount=381)
- of course, he does say this (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415625&postcount=702), which seems like a decidedly towny thing to say
- has been generally helpful but not providing anything specifically useful other than voting for citizens (see above concern about smoke and mirrors folks)
- right in there feeding bandwagons after townies, but somehow not attracting suspicion himself


Ok, first you say I made votes with poor reasoning. The first thing you cite is my first vote on day one for Queuing. Can you show me any other vote on day one that was made with better reasoning than mine?

The second post you cite was my accusation of pimaspinner. In my defense, he did throw suspicion on FCOD without much reasoning. I had every right to call him on that.

My third post that lacks good reasoning was made by Fern Forest. Check your links.

Then you bring up my faulty reasoning from day 1 again. It obviously sucked because I was wrong. I defended Autolycus because I thought Queuing was more suspicious. Now freaking Queuing and Blaster Master are suspicious of me because of this post. Seriously, these guys are like the Mafia’s lap dogs. One person posts vague suspicion and their posts carries it throughout the town.

Don't forget that your former self voted for Enfant Terrible. What I find suspicious is that you fell for the same reasoning I did and are now suspicious of me for it.



Pygmy Rugger -
- Smoke and mirrors as outlined above.

- His role in that day of role claim craziness that ended with the conditional which took out two townies. Here is the vote count at post 1062, just before BM claimed:

7- Blaster Master - (Queuing, hocow, pimaspinner, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, Winston Smith)
5- Pleonast - (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton)
4- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio, glee)
4- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast)
3- Gadarene -(Smitty,Blaster Master, nesta)

Note that Pygmy Rugger is right in there. Then BM claimed vigilante (post 1085) and all hell broke loose.

How did Pygmy Rugger get dropped from the suspicion list? There was no defense and no reasoning for unvoting him, but somehow he got unvoted and two townies got dead.

This is Suburban Plankton (known scum)'s outline of the options from here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8423895&postcount=1213)

There are four people who between them have made about a zillion and one posts "today". Those people, along with their "primary suspects" are:
Blaster Master: suspecting Gadarene and Queueing
Gadarene: suspecting Blaster Master and Pleonast
Queueing: suspecting Blaster Master and Pleonast
zuma: suspecting JSexton, Gadarene, Queueing, and pimaspinner

Why are Pygmy Rugger and for that matter Lakai left off that list? PM was doing plenty of pointing, and had much pointed at him, but he's not in this roll-up. Lakai was more of a pointer than a pointee that day but he's also not included among those who have made a "zillion and one" posts. Pygmy Rugger reposts this list shortly thereafter, perhaps to encourage people to forget that his name belongs there too?



Why was I not included in the list of posters that made a "zillion and one" posts? It think it was because I did not make a "zillion and one" posts.

[Blaster Master]

Then you bring up my faulty reasoning from day 1 again. It obviously sucked because I was wrong. I defended Autolycus because I thought Queuing was more suspicious. Now freaking Queuing and Blaster Master are suspicious of me because of this post. Seriously, these guys are like the Mafia’s lap dogs. One person posts vague suspicion and their posts carries it throughout the town.
Actually, I'm suspicious of you for entirely different reasons. I FOSed you yesterday based on my analysis of nesta's patterns (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8437570&postcount=1874). It turns out that one of the other individuals I FOSed for the same reasons, kivvik, was scum, so I'm going to hope I may have been onto something. Seriously, you like ARE the mafia.

[Lakai]

Actually, I'm suspicious of you for entirely different reasons. I FOSed you yesterday based on my analysis of nesta's patterns (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8437570&postcount=1874). It turns out that one of the other individuals I FOSed for the same reasons, kivvik, was scum, so I'm going to hope I may have been onto something. Seriously, you like ARE the mafia.

Here is what you came up with based on nesta's patterns:

1. Knowing mafia had a plan going into day one; knowing that bandwagoning is a mafia tell; knowing that wild paranoia will likely lead lynching of the louder posters, the mafia were less likely to vote and participate on the first day. That is, "give someone enough rope..."

2. Mafia will only provide in depth analysis and outstanding endorsement on indisputably correct ideas.

3. The mafia will want to cozy up to the most trusted and accepted townies and generally ignore the untrusted and mafia.

These criteria for spotting mafia are so vague that you can apply them to pretty much anyone. Plus, now the mafia has a nice handbook of how to avoid Blaster Master's suspicion.

Is this really what you are using to FOS me?

[Blaster Master]

Here is what you came up with based on nesta's patterns:


These criteria for spotting mafia are so vague that you can apply them to pretty much anyone. Plus, now the mafia has a nice handbook of how to avoid Blaster Master's suspicion.

Is this really what you are using to FOS me?

Okay... let's review then, shall we?

Like nesta and kivvik, you failed to make a vote on day one.

You voted to lynch Pleonast (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414759&postcount=636) with shaky reasoning. You point out the bandwagon from Autolycus to Enfant Terrible, and then say Pleonast is more suspicious for supporting and improved version of chrisk's idea? Why didn't you just vote for chrisk?

A defense of Autolycus (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414795&postcount=638) (our current GF suspect); granted, it was against my faulty reasoning, and it was appropriately addressed by zuma later, but you made no attempt to address the reasoning.

Then you "reluctantly" change your vote (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415625&postcount=702) to chrisk, still pushing for Pleonast, when the whole reason you didn't like Pleonast was because he supported chrisk. ???

Then you change your vote back (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8417057#post8417057) to Pleonast and FOS me.

Another vague defense of Autolycus (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8417794&postcount=828) and another FOS at me, Pleonast, Storyteller, and sturmhauke.

Here's an example of a seemingly helpful but doesn't really add anything post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418112&postcount=845).

Then you defend FCOD (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418517&postcount=883), and point the FOS at Pleonast and me again.

And again... (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8422025&postcount=1064)

Then you switch your vote AGAIN (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8422151&postcount=1068), this time to try and start the clock on me.

Then you question why I role-claimed (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8422833&postcount=1116). ???

Then you try (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8422982&postcount=1133) and again (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8423054&postcount=1143) to keep the FOS on me even after the plan was established to test my claim.

Then you support VIGing Zuma (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8424713&postcount=1315).

Then a vague defense of Aguecheek (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8434178&postcount=1779), another individual high on many people's scum lists right now.

Then, a vote for pimaspinner (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435064&postcount=1794).

Then you FOS pimaspinner AGAIN (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435209&postcount=1803), and essentailly support random FOSing.

This is your only vote for mafia (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8443291&postcount=2007), and only AFTER he was outed by pimaspinner.

And after push the FCOD thing REALLY hard for several posts, you claim we don't have enough time to get the Suburban Plankton train going (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8446170&postcount=2194) and should just vote for Fern Forest.


So, what do I see in ALL of your posts? Several are either completely contentless or of the "seemingly helpful, but not really type" like vote counting. ALL of your votes, except for the one for FCOD AFTER he was outted, were for what are now 100% confirmed non-mafia (100% townie, if you don't include Fern Forest, who is either townie or SK, which is still in the mafia's favor). You defended Autolycus (suspected GF), FCOD (confirmed mafia), Suburban Plankton (confirmed mafia), and Aguecheek (higher on most people's scum list than you are). You chastized Suburban Plankton for his idea in a manor that seems more consistent with "you fool, they're FOSing you, STOP IT!" than "I really think we should vote for you". Why didn't you vote Suburban Plankton after that, oh so convincing, performance? THEN, to top it all, you get hyper defensive when people FOS you, without getting even a single vote? If you really aren't mafia, then you shouldn't have much of a problem at all with people suggesting that you be investigated... as the investigation should, more likely than not, exonerate you of your mafia charges.

If I didn't think that lynching Autolycus today was most in the town's favor, I'd vote for you. Maybe we can just get to that tomorrow?

[glee]

Ok, I am done reading through what FCOD posted.

...

Lastly, I look at FCOD's trust lists, with no explanation as to how he come to these, are once again:

I trust: Rysto, glee, myself
I distrust: Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, Queuing, and Aguecheek (post 427)

followed in post 593

I trust: Menocchio, Rysto, glee
I don't trust: Blaster Master, Queuing, Aguecheek

It can easily be explained why Menecchio made it to the second list, he is the crumb. Rysto has been town trusted since the very beginning. Lo and behold what name appears again? glee.

I don't see why glee had all of this mafia attention. Glee was never even on my radar, and as far as I can tell, no one but confirmed scums radar either. What is up with that?

Aguecheek also makes the distrust list (as do I) both times. No reasons are given, but we know that I made it on like 10 distrust lists, so that could explain me, but why aguecheek?

First thanks for your in-depth analysis of Flying Cow's posts.
N.B. Is there an easy way to search this thread for all posts by one player? I only found a thread search for each time a keyword is mentioned...)

Next I'd like to look at one point you raise - about me. :)

Flying Cow posted 427 on day 1 and 593 on day 2. At that early point in the game, we had no success in identifying Mafia.
My list at that time trusted 9 players who had posted good analysis and distrusted poor posts (Winston + Autolycus) plus random votes for me (Smitty).

I assume that Flying Cow was using the same idea, because:

- otherwise it might lead to suspicion of being Mafia
- there's no need for one Mafia to publically post their suspicions of a key Citizen when they have all night to discuss it privately.

[Fern Forest]

Well, like I said I usually need to think about something awhile before I really understand it.

Am I the serial killer? No and shame on you guys for believing that. Ignore the fact that I talked about it a LOT. So much so that in fact some people were beginning to get sick about the SK talk. Ignore that.

Last night I suggest you guys go ahead with the JSexton lynch and offered my life as a conditional. What serial killer in his right mind would make such a large risk? As the SK I would have no more certainty of JSexton's association then any other citizen. It would be a rather large gamble to bet the entire game on JSexton being a citizen. And not only that, betting it on the one guy the town is the most suspicious of.

But not only that, after it became apparant that my plan was not going to followed I argued that I was a better lynch then JSexton. I argued that I was damaged and JSexton was a better player and that the town would be better off lynching me yesterday. Unless I lost my mind yesterday no way am I the serial killer.

Could I be a mobster? A mobster could very well have made the odds post. A mobster would have known whether or not JSexton and Sturmhauke were citizens and proposed a plan that would kill them both. When that plan went sour would a mobster have argued that he should be killed instead of the player he knew was a citizen? If I was a mobster I would have only made the first play if JSexton was town and only made the second playif JSexton was mafioso. It doesn't make sense.

Only one scenario makes sense. I was a citizen who was very convinced that JSexton was town. And because it was for the betterment of town I was willing to trade the life of the most suspicious citizen at that time for the person I thought was acting the most suspicious. And then when that failed pushed for my own lynching for pissing you guys off and tried to save the life of the guy I felt was innocent.

So I think that kills pimaspinner's arguement that Autolycus is the GF. The mob would be foolish to risk the GF on such a ploy. We could have very well lynched him on the first day. But he probably is scum. As I said a long time ago, I think he's here to distract us. He's the little dancing monkey and while we all stand around and stare they sneak up behind us a pick our pockets. I will gladly vote for him when we're ready to end this day.

[Fern Forest]

Is there an easy way to search this thread for all posts by one player?On the advanced search page you can put a persons name on the right hand side and then select to show as posts. Probably should click on the forum MPSIMS while you're at it.