Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[glee]

Is there a danger to the Town that the Serial Killer is getting close to winning? :eek:

Several posters (including me) have suggested there were about 9 Mafia to start with (giving decent ratio to Citizens without allowing a Mafia-only lynching).
If so, there are now only about 5. :cool:

Currently the Town are happily retro-analysing the posts of the 4 confirmed Mafia and think we may already have the Godfather (Autolycus?) in our sights.
We also have an enthusiastic Vigilante, plus at least one hard-working Beat Cop (who thinks he's found the Serial Killer!)
But suppose these next two kills are both Mafia, plus SK takes out another Mafia as well.

Then there would be only about 2 Mafia left - and if we can't find SK fast, SK will win. :smack:

Now there are 24 players alive at present, so the Mafia are a long way from winning (approximately 5 Mafia, 1 SK, approx 18 Citizens).
If we don't get the SK tonight, should we change our approach?

[glee]

On the advanced search page you can put a persons name on the right hand side and then select to show as posts. Probably should click on the forum MPSIMS while you're at it.

I tried that, but got all posts made in MPSIMS by the named poster.

The 'Search Thread' option only seems to allows key words...

[Fern Forest]

If we don't get the SK tonight, should we change our approach?
That seems almost impossible, the town has to kill every day. You guys have to start aiming for the SK now.

Looks like I'm first up against the wall.

[Fern Forest]

I tried that, but got all posts made in MPSIMS by the named poster.

The 'Search Thread' option only seems to allows key words...
Ah, I misunderstood your question. That way was the closest I could get. Thankfully many players haven't had much time to post in other threads.

[glee]

That seems almost impossible, the town has to kill every day. You guys have to start aiming for the SK now.

Looks like I'm first up against the wall.

I agree we should go for the SK urgently.

I suppose I was wondering, assuming the SK isn't found soon, if the Town should consider deliberately lynching its own Citizens. :eek: :rolleyes: :smack:

[glee]

I hope I'm still making sense - I'm feeling a bit light-headed about how well this game is going. (This means I start checking for unlikely bad things which might happen.)

NAF1138, thanks for your patience, but I have another rules question. :eek:

If all of one type of player have been unmistakenly identified (e.g. Godfather killed), can a Beat Cop still get that type as an answer if they hit their 50% chance of a mistake?

[Autolycus]

I's back from karaoke. Seeing as I'm drunk and I's got's less than 10 votes, I'lll post my defense later. Goodsnight town.

[glee]

I's back from karaoke..

And now, the end is near,
And so I face ...
The final curtain

[Kat]

Seeing as I'm drunk and I's got's less than 10 votes, I'lll post my defense later.

Figures. Just because I'm not gonna be back here for another 12 hours today. If Auto role-claims, the entire board will have exploded by then.

[StarvingButStrong]

Figures. Just because I'm not gonna be back here for another 12 hours today. If Auto role-claims, the entire board will have exploded by then.


Ditto, sadly ditto. :(

[storyteller0910]

Hold yer horses, I iz thinkin'

This is getting exhausting. Auto, I've defended you pretty frequently, but whatever it is you're doing here, it's not particularly helpful. The only reason that you should have to think this much is if you are formulating a lie; the truth should be relatively easy to lay out.

Oy with the poodles already.

[Queuing]

Now freaking Queuing and Blaster Master are suspicious of me because of this post. Seriously, these guys are like the Mafia’s lap dogs. One person posts vague suspicion and their posts carries it throughout the town.

Wow, a little angry aren't you? And just because a few people asked for you to be investigated? No votes, no real danger of being lynched, yet your post is full or righteous indignation and venom. So much so that you don't even know why I want you investigated.

You defended Autolycus. In the confirmed mafia posts I have looked at I have seen 2 themes. 1 is defense of Autolycus. Which you have done. The second is the mention a lot. Therefore both of you have made it to the top of my "hey cops if you want any suggestions on whom to investigate I think you should check these 2 out" list.

And that post was your response?

Well, woof woof :dubious:

[Queuing]

I am stupid, forgot to preview.

"yet your post if full OF righteous indignation"

"The second is the mention of glee a lot"

[ArizonaTeach]

I's back from karaoke. Seeing as I'm drunk and I's got's less than 10 votes, I'lll post my defense later. Goodsnight town.Oh for the love of God...
vote Autolycus

[Blaster Master]

I tried that, but got all posts made in MPSIMS by the named poster.

The 'Search Thread' option only seems to allows key words...

What I've done, and it seems to work great, is use the search, search by the poster's name, select "by post", select MPSIMS, and then select a minimum post count. Now that this thread has so many replies, if you put a minimum post count of like 2000 or 2500, there are VERY few threads that meet that requirement.

[cowgirl]

I'm not convinced by the defense of either of today's targets. Any reason I shouldn't vote Auto and vote to assissanate FF? I am inclined to agree with Oh for the love of God...
vote Autolycus

Is Auto doing anything other than killing time?

[glee]

What I've done, and it seems to work great, is use the search, search by the poster's name, select "by post", select MPSIMS, and then select a minimum post count. Now that this thread has so many replies, if you put a minimum post count of like 2000 or 2500, there are VERY few threads that meet that requirement.

Select 'minimum post count'! :cool:

On the other hand, you've now made it slightly easier for me to spend hours researching each poster. :smack:

[Blaster Master]

I's back from karaoke. Seeing as I'm drunk and I's got's less than 10 votes, I'lll post my defense later. Goodsnight town.
Umm... the only reasons you don't have ten votes are because A, we want you to have time to defend yourself, and B, we want to have time to change our votes if we're persuaded by your defense. If you show you have no desire to defend yourself, then I'd say we should start the clock today. That said, before we start the count, I want to make sure we have our night strategy figured out.

pimaspinner, do you intend to announce your investigation target? Understandable if you do not.

and

Fern Forest, it doesn't look like you're convincing many people. I have every intention of continuing to treat the VIG kill like a pseudo-lynching; thus, lest you can convince several people that I should target someone else, you're my target tonight.

[Blaster Master]

Is Auto doing anything other than killing time?
I would say... no. His only defense at this point is to claim vanilla townie. If he claims beat cop, he's done a piss-poor job of laying crumbs. If he claims miller, we've already established that a miller defense is pretty much worthless especially since he's a suspected GF. Plus, I'm inclined to believe there are no millers (remember, "not all roles will be used" and only GA and miller are left unconfirmed). Thus, if he IS going to claim vanilla townie, he is going to have a hard time establishing a buyable defense.

That said, since it looks like he has little desire to defend, I have a VIG target, and we have several investigation targets for pimaspinner and potentially our other beat cop, how long does this day need to last?

[Blaster Master]

Oh, and on further consideration about the Masons. Last night's target makes it clear that the mafia are ready to start killing confirmed townies because most of the power-roles have been outed at this point (assuming JSexton is telling the truth; and if he isn't, if he's not mafia, they probably still believe him). That said, leaving the Masons unclaimed at this point gives them few targets. If the Masons claim, it gives them a lot more targets, giving our unclaimed beat-cop a few more days of investigation and bread-crumbing before he finally gets targetted, while pimaspinner is protected by our doctor.

Further, if it turns out that Fern Forest isn't the SK, then will turn in their favor to start targetting the SK instead of townies, which means going after unconfirmed townies, which would then ALSO help them to help us find the SK, while later helping us AFTER the SK is killed.

[brewha]

I agree with Blaster Master. No reason to delay. Let's get the timer started, maybe that will persuade Autolycus defend himself. Based on his last post, I'm guessing that he won't be up and active very soon, but he'll have 12 hrs once we get 10 votes.

Lynch Autolycus

[Blaster Master]

Select 'minimum post count'! :cool:

On the other hand, you've now made it slightly easier for me to spend hours researching each poster. :smack:

Eh... the only people that will take hours to research, are the loud, obnoxious ones like me and Queuing. :D

I've only researched individuals like that when they've pinged my scum-dar, and I haven't figured out exactly why, or I'm trying to make a case for why we should lynch them. So maybe just stick to the people who are high on the suspicion list...?

[Queuing]

Eh... the only people that will take hours to research, are the loud, obnoxious ones like me and Queuing. :D

Well my other option is to like ACTUALLY earn my paycheque.. :D

[glee]

pimaspinner, do you intend to announce your investigation target? Understandable if you do not.


I think Pimaspinner should announce because:

- it lets any other Beat Cops decide who they want to investigate
- if Pima is suspicious of a Mason, the Mason can decide whether to let Pima know (there's been debate whether another Mason should reveal in case Pleonast is killed - the Mason can bear all that in mind)

[Blaster Master]

I agree with Blaster Master. No reason to delay. Let's get the timer started, maybe that will persuade Autolycus defend himself. Based on his last post, I'm guessing that he won't be up and active very soon, but he'll have 12 hrs once we get 10 votes.
That said, any idea how many votes he has. I will vote to lynch Autolycus now, and I will be able to unvote within the 12 hour window if the town decides we need to stop the countdown. Either way, he obviously wants the pressure, so... why the heck not?

[Malacandra]

Oh, and on further consideration about the Masons. Last night's target makes it clear that the mafia are ready to start killing confirmed townies because most of the power-roles have been outed at this point (assuming JSexton is telling the truth; and if he isn't, if he's not mafia, they probably still believe him). That said, leaving the Masons unclaimed at this point gives them few targets. If the Masons claim, it gives them a lot more targets, giving our unclaimed beat-cop a few more days of investigation and bread-crumbing before he finally gets targetted, while pimaspinner is protected by our doctor.

Further, if it turns out that Fern Forest isn't the SK, then will turn in their favor to start targetting the SK instead of townies, which means going after unconfirmed townies, which would then ALSO help them to help us find the SK, while later helping us AFTER the SK is killed.

OTOH, of course, our as yet unrevealed beat cop can hide in a pool of unconfirmed Citizens for now - if the scum want to try and find him it's slightly easier for them to do so if the pool is made smaller by removing the Masons.

Time to get off the fence and vote Autolycus.

[glee]

Eh... the only people that will take hours to research, are the loud, obnoxious ones like me and Queuing. :D

I've only researched individuals like that when they've pinged my scum-dar, and I haven't figured out exactly why, or I'm trying to make a case for why we should lynch them. So maybe just stick to the people who are high on the suspicion list...?

You and Queuing aren't loud ...
What? :D

Sorry, I didn't express myself very well - I meant that for a single suspect, it would take some time to find, read and evaluate every post.
I will indeed stick just to suspects (and I am enjoying the game a lot!)

[Blaster Master]

Well my other option is to like ACTUALLY earn my paycheque.. :DHA! I'm earning it... just not in the form they're paying me.

I think Pimaspinner should announce because:

- it lets any other Beat Cops decide who they want to investigate
- if Pima is suspicious of a Mason, the Mason can decide whether to let Pima know (there's been debate whether another Mason should reveal in case Pleonast is killed - the Mason can bear all that in mind)

Excellent point, if pimaspinner is going to investigate a Mason, the Mason can claim and be confirmed to avoid wasting the investigation. Similarly, if he/we can pick a potential target for our unclaimed beat-cop.

[Aguecheek]

*sigh*

Concur that Auto's defense is pretty...subpar at the moment. If it'll take a 12 hour count down to get him to step up to the plate, and give me a weekend away from the computer, Vote Autolycus. I'm not sure about Fern yet. I'll read over those posts in more detail later on.

pimaspinner should announce; I agree with glee's reasoning.

As for the rest of the silliness from the "loud, obnoxious ones" (your words! Not mine! :D), I've already gone over that twice.

[glee]

Here is about 19 hours worth of Autolycus defending himself:

09.26 yesterday
I's the godfather? Yeah, and JSexton's the tooth fairy. I'lls defend myself from you crazies later, cuz me thinks it's more beneficial-like to watch everyone get there pantiez in a bunch first. You catch more flies with a web of lies is what mum always said.

10.02 yesterday
Youz guys think way's too highly of me. I wish I were that smart.

10.10 yesterday
Ye'r a punk ya know that? Of course I's gonna defend myself. Later though. I'm still nursin' a hangover from Hell.

0105 yesterday
*waves*

01.15 yesterday
Hold yer horses, I iz thinkin'

03.39 yesterday
Great's logic ya got there, Playdoh. As fo' my tight-lips: "I cook no swine before its time."

03.50 yesterday
O rly?

03.59 yesterday
I'm going to karaoke very soon and will post my defense of this nonsense GF accusation later, so in like 3-5 hours or so. I dont think any defense will satiate the bloodlust of the lynch mob, but I'll try o_o;

04.03 yesterday
Well in that case, clearly you have to get 27 votes and lynch me immediately

11.09 today
I's back from karaoke. Seeing as I'm drunk and I's got's less than 10 votes, I'lll post my defense later. Goodsnight town.

It's now about 0405...

Also I think we may have 10+ votes for him :cool:

Pimaspinner, Queuing, Menocchio, MadTheSwine, StarvingButStrong, Hocow, MonkeyMensch, Brewha (after an unvote + revote), Glee, Blaster Master and Malacandra.

(Rysto + Pleonast both voted, then unvoted to give more time)

[NAF1138]

I hope I'm still making sense - I'm feeling a bit light-headed about how well this game is going. (This means I start checking for unlikely bad things which might happen.)

NAF1138, thanks for your patience, but I have another rules question. :eek:

If all of one type of player have been unmistakenly identified (e.g. Godfather killed), can a Beat Cop still get that type as an answer if they hit their 50% chance of a mistake?


Yes, its a random list that I have set up. So the possibilites are always the same.

[glee]

OTOH, of course, our as yet unrevealed beat cop can hide in a pool of unconfirmed Citizens for now - if the scum want to try and find him it's slightly easier for them to do so if the pool is made smaller by removing the Masons.



Yes, but if a Beat Cop investigates a Mason, they won't learn anything useful.
In fact, there is nearly a 50% chance they will get a wrong answer that makes them spend a second day investigating that same Mason.

Meanwhile the Mafia are 'reducing the pool' by one daily (and until we find the SK, there could be another two daily deaths :eek: ).

P.S. With Aguecheek joining in, we now have 12 votes for Autolycus (and ... err ... none for anyone else!)

[cowgirl]

Yah, I'm going to go ahead and Vote Autolycus too because I can't see any point in waiting.

I'll be around if unvoting is necessary. in the mean time, let's get the clock started.

[MonkeyMensch]

[Staying in character] I was over at Cecilton all day yesterday bidding on the town's demo. They're going to put in a Walmart, apparently.

I thought of a protective end-game strategem while I was on the road, though. If we come down to one or two Mafiosi at the end and haven't found the SK yet we would be in serious peril. But we then ask the Millers to block the Mafia at night. At this point it would give a pretty good probability of NO Mafia kill during the night. And if the Doc is still around that we have the Doc protect the most likely of the Mafia members. That way we can hold a Mafia hostage, if you will, while we ferret out the SK.

I realize this scenario has some big conditionals and is a ways down the road, but I go to bed each evening with that Wesley feeling of, "Most likely I'll be dead in the morning" so I wanted to get it out there now.

[glee]

Yes, its a random list that I have set up. So the possibilites are always the same.

Aha!

So assume a Beat Cop gets a result that can't be true (i.e. all in that category have been identified).
Then he must have got a wrong answer, but we can't benefit from this, because the Beat Cop doesn't ask e.g. "Is Fred a Citizen?" (when he would know that Fred was indeed a Citizen), but merely says who he is investigating.

[NAF1138]

Looks like the clock started at 7:51am my time with brewha's vote. To make it easier to remember the day will end tonight at 8pm unless you guys unvote to stop the clock.

14- Autolycus (pimmaspinner, Queuing, Menocchio, StarvingButStrong, MTS, hocow, Monkey Mench, glee, Auguecheek, ArizonaTeach, brewha, Blaster Master, Malacandra, cowgirl)

[glee]

I thought of a protective end-game strategem while I was on the road, though. If we come down to one or two Mafiosi at the end and haven't found the SK yet we would be in serious peril. But we then ask the Millers to block the Mafia at night. At this point it would give a pretty good probability of NO Mafia kill during the night. And if the Doc is still around that we have the Doc protect the most likely of the Mafia members. That way we can hold a Mafia hostage, if you will, while we ferret out the SK.

I realize this scenario has some big conditionals and is a ways down the road, but I go to bed each evening with that Wesley feeling of, "Most likely I'll be dead in the morning" so I wanted to get it out there now.

I like your careful pessimism. :)

However, suppose we come down to just two already-suspected Mafia, plus the SK and there aren't many Citizens left (say four).
My understanding is that the Miller can only block one Mafia, so the other can kill.
Plus the SK can kill a Citizen.
Of course the Mafia won't win if they miss the SK, but the Town loses either way.

Next, suppose we come down to just two already-suspected Mafia, plus the SK and there are many Citizens left.
Now the SK aims for Mafia (or if the Doc is still with us, for the Doc. Or if the Miller is still there, for them.) The Mafia need to keep killing, so they might kill the Doc or Miller as well.

Either way, it's not good for the Town. :eek:

[MonkeyMensch]

I was under the impression that when a Miller blocks ANY Mafia that the probability of a Mafia kill is then 1/n, where n is the number of remaining Mafia.

[brewha]

I was under the impression that when a Miller blocks ANY Mafia that the probability of a Mafia kill is then 1/n, where n is the number of remaining Mafia.

That's how I understand it. If there's only two mafia left, the miller has a %50 of blocking any mafia kill.

[storyteller0910]

He still hasn't come in here yet to make a defense?

vote Autolycus

[NAF1138]

BTW the magic number to end the day instantly is 24 today. You are currently at 15.

[MonkeyMensch]

I like your careful pessimism. :)

However, suppose we come down to just two already-suspected Mafia, plus the SK and there aren't many Citizens left (say four).
My understanding is that the Miller can only block one Mafia, so the other can kill.
Plus the SK can kill a Citizen.
Of course the Mafia won't win if they miss the SK, but the Town loses either way.

Next, suppose we come down to just two already-suspected Mafia, plus the SK and there are many Citizens left.
Now the SK aims for Mafia (or if the Doc is still with us, for the Doc. Or if the Miller is still there, for them.) The Mafia need to keep killing, so they might kill the Doc or Miller as well.

Either way, it's not good for the Town. :eek:
Yeah. Still it might work for a turn or two.

[glee]

I was under the impression that when a Miller blocks ANY Mafia that the probability of a Mafia kill is then 1/n, where n is the number of remaining Mafia.

Thanks for pointing that out. :)

Actually I think the odds are the same in this case - still 50% for the Miller to block when there are precisely two Mafia left.

Yeah. Still it might work for a turn or two.

No way am I criticising you! :D
I throw out ideas too and I think that's by far the best Town strategy.

However, when we are near the end of the game, there may only be a turn or two left. :eek: So we need to consider our priorities now...

[glee]

He still hasn't come in here yet to make a defense?

vote Autolycus

See post 2530.

Autolycus is 'thinking' about his defence.
For 19 hours...

[Hockey Monkey]

I do intend to announce who I will be investigating. I don't know right now, but will probably choose from Lakai, Pygmy Rugger, and Aguecheek. I am looking at the cases being made against each, so if you have an opinion let me know.

[Santo Rugger]

I think Pimaspinner should announce because:

- it lets any other Beat Cops decide who they want to investigate
- if Pima is suspicious of a Mason, the Mason can decide whether to let Pima know (there's been debate whether another Mason should reveal in case Pleonast is killed - the Mason can bear all that in mind)

I disagree. the other beat cop can investigate just as well without knowing what pima will be doing. Also, as I've said before, I think it's best if we don't reveal any more Masons unless we have to. They're going to be more powerful during the endgame, and outing them at this point only gives the Mafia a bigger pool to attack, and the Doctor a bigger pool to defend.

[Queuing]

Meh, any of those 3 are fine. If you find one more suspicious then another do what you feel like. We have about 10 hours I believe, so just make sure you announce whomever with 4-6 hours left. Just in case one is a mason or something and decides to claim before you waste a night.

[ArizonaTeach]

Put me in the pima-announcing-his-investigation-target camp for the reasons given. My only addition would be that if the target is a mason, then Pleonast should step in before the investigation is wasted.

Otherwise, I am firmly in the Pleonast-should-not-reveal camp because a guaranteed mafia lynch over the next two days is worth it.

[Santo Rugger]

I do intend to announce who I will be investigating. I don't know right now, but will probably choose from Lakai, Pygmy Rugger, and Aguecheek. I am looking at the cases being made against each, so if you have an opinion let me know.

Although I do like the idea of investigating from a small handful like this, but not announcing specifically which one you'll be targeting tonight.

[ArizonaTeach]

I disagree. the other beat cop can investigate just as well without knowing what pima will be doing. Also, as I've said before, I think it's best if we don't reveal any more Masons unless we have to. They're going to be more powerful during the endgame, and outing them at this point only gives the Mafia a bigger pool to attack, and the Doctor a bigger pool to defend.Honestly, the only reason I can see for pima not telling us who he's going to investigate is for the benefit of the mafia. It might waste another cop's investigation...if I'm missing something, let me know. Otherwise, I suggest investigate Pygmy Rugger.

[storyteller0910]

I disagree. the other beat cop can investigate just as well without knowing what pima will be doing.

Well, not really. I am not sure whether it is a better idea for Beat Cop II to: (1) investigate the same person as pima, to allow for result confirmation; or (2) to specifically avoid investigating the same person, as a way of generating additional information. Whichever Beat Cop II prefers, though, having pima announce a target beforehand gives Beat Cop II the chance to choose from those options, rather than just firing blindly and hoping things work out.

[Santo Rugger]

Honestly, the only reason I can see for pima not telling us who he's going to investigate is for the benefit of the mafia. It might waste another cop's investigation...if I'm missing something, let me know. Otherwise, I suggest investigate Pygmy Rugger.

If pima does tell us, and it is a Mason, it would be better for the mob. I'll await JSexton's thoughts on the matter, him and I have had a similar conversation earlier about this. It's not good to out a Mason if we don't have to. The only time we have to his if they're about to get lynched.

[Fern Forest]

Fern Forest, it doesn't look like you're convincing many people. I have every intention of continuing to treat the VIG kill like a pseudo-lynching; thus, lest you can convince several people that I should target someone else, you're my target tonight.
Well if you or anyone knows any magical defense I could put up I'd like to hear it. I myself have no idea what I can do since you guys are so damn suspicious of me. So I'm ready to die peacefully then spend my last few hours flailing around. Especially I'm about to head out to work and wont get back till this day is over and I'm a dead man.

At least you guys killed the guy with the freaking pinky ring first.

Lynch Autolycus. My only hope is he's the SK. Slim chance of that. I'll see you all in my farewell post where I shall chastise you all for completely failing to understand what I was doing yesterday.

[Santo Rugger]

Well, not really. I am not sure whether it is a better idea for Beat Cop II to: (1) investigate the same person as pima, to allow for result confirmation; or (2) to specifically avoid investigating the same person, as a way of generating additional information. Whichever Beat Cop II prefers, though, having pima announce a target beforehand gives Beat Cop II the chance to choose from those options, rather than just firing blindly and hoping things work out.

True. If both those options are good options, however, then it doesn't matter and they can confer in the morning. If the scum target them overnight, it doesn't matter, because they won't be able to report their investigations. That's why I think a small handful of suspects is best. It gives the best of both options you list, and doesn't absolutely have to out a Mason.

Again, JSexton, please correct me if I'm wrong, but at this point it's better to "waste" an investigation on a Mason than to out another one, knowing that we probably have only 2-3 left?

[Queuing]

I'll see you all in my farewell post where I shall chastise you all for completely failing to understand what I was doing yesterday.

Do what you need to do, but I think a number of us thought you were a townie, and that is all. I know I did. I know a number of others did. Its why you didn't get lynched yesterday.

Unfortunately for you, a cop investigated you and you came up SK. Sure he could be wrong. However 50/50 odds are odds most of us would bet on. I agree with you that there is little you could say that would stop the Vig kill now. Sorry about that if it does turn out you are town.

He does raise something of a good point though. Say Autolycus is the SK and not the Godfather? Do we have a backup target for BM?

On a different note, why the asking for what JSexton has to say? JSexton is not some sort of guru, and IMO is currently one of the least trusted players in this game. He has made a claim that can only be verified by his death, so until that happens I don't trust him. At all. So to put it bluntly JSexton will have to be very persuasive to change my mind. YMMV.

Let Pimaspinner investigate whom he pleases. I think he should tell us so the other beat cop can investigate someone else (I don't think its worth it to investigate twice at this time, but the cops can do as they see fit). If his target is a mason then that target can choose to out themselves, and then have Pleonast confirm/deny. Or not. At this point we have to put some trust into our power roles, and let them play the game as they see fit.

[storyteller0910]

He does raise something of a good point though. Say Autolycus is the SK and not the Godfather? Do we have a backup target for BM?


Unless I am misreading the rules, if Autolycus is the SK, there will be no target for Blaster Master at all, because he will not longer be the Vigilante - he becomes ordinary town upon the death of the Serial Killer. NAF: is this correct?


Let Pimaspinner investigate whom he pleases. I think he should tell us so the other beat cop can investigate someone else (I don't think its worth it to investigate twice at this time, but the cops can do as they see fit). If his target is a mason then that target can choose to out themselves, and then have Pleonast confirm/deny. Or not. At this point we have to put some trust into our power roles, and let them play the game as they see fit.

I strongly agree with every word of this.

[Pleonast]

He does raise something of a good point though. Say Autolycus is the SK and not the Godfather? Do we have a backup target for BM?We need a backup target.

[Santo Rugger]

<snip>On a different note, why the asking for what JSexton has to say? JSexton is not some sort of guru, and IMO is currently one of the least trusted players in this game. He has made a claim that can only be verified by his death, so until that happens I don't trust him. At all. So to put it bluntly JSexton will have to be very persuasive to change my mind. YMMV.<snip>

My question to him is of general game strategy. Regardless of his affiliation, I see him as the kind of guy who would answer honestly in the pursuit of fighting ignorance. The point I'm currently trying to make does not concern specific people (just a specific role), and I asked JSexton twice to be sure he'd see it, since he is one of the more experienced players of this game.

[Blaster Master]

I do intend to announce who I will be investigating. I don't know right now, but will probably choose from Lakai, Pygmy Rugger, and Aguecheek. I am looking at the cases being made against each, so if you have an opinion let me know.I agree with the list, I'm pretty much equally suspicious of Lakai and Aguecheek; I think the suspicion of Pygmy Rugger, while understandable, is not nearly as strong or justifiable. I would recommend you target one between the two, and the other beat cop investigate the other, but I will resign to your choice regardless.
Unless I am misreading the rules, if Autolycus is the SK, there will be no target for Blaster Master at all, because he will not longer be the Vigilante - he becomes ordinary town upon the death of the Serial Killer. NAF: is this correct?This is correct. A backup target is not necessary; I will lose my powers immediately upon Autolycus's death if he is the SK and not the GF. Similarly, at this point, if neither Fern Forest or Autolycus is the SK, because I think most of the town considers me just about 100% confirmed, if we think we've found the SK, then it makes little difference if we lynch or I target.
Well if you or anyone knows any magical defense I could put up I'd like to hear it. I myself have no idea what I can do since you guys are so damn suspicious of me. So I'm ready to die peacefully then spend my last few hours flailing around. Especially I'm about to head out to work and wont get back till this day is over and I'm a dead man.Well, assuming my math earlier is correct, if you are the SK, that's a 56.25% [p(I(SK)|SK)] chance you would have come up as the SK, and if you weren't, a 6.25%[p(I(SK)|~SK)] chance. That is, now that you HAVE come up as SK, we can conclude that the probability that you're the SK based only on that reading is 90% [P(SK|I(SK))]. Add to that all of the research that pimaspinner provided and, well, I can't think of a thing you could say that would help you. I'm convinced you're not mafia, as I was yesterday, but the odds are just too high that you're the SK to ignore.

[Queuing]

Unless I am misreading the rules, if Autolycus is the SK, there will be no target for Blaster Master at all, because he will not longer be the Vigilante - he becomes ordinary town upon the death of the Serial Killer. NAF: is this correct?

Ah, very good point. I also believe this is correct after re-reading the rules. If the SK dies so does the VIG killing ability.

Therefore the point is moot.

Pygmy Rugger , ah I see. Just a general "how to play this game" question. Ok I suppose. Still though we are playing this game, and whatever he says must be taken in the context of this game. Again YMMV.

[NAF1138]

Unless I am misreading the rules, if Autolycus is the SK, there will be no target for Blaster Master at all, because he will not longer be the Vigilante - he becomes ordinary town upon the death of the Serial Killer. NAF: is this correct?

Sure is

[sturmhauke]

I tried to post from home last night, but Comcast is fucking things up in the Bay Area apparently. I don't have much time to post from work. So let me just say two things:

1. Fern Forest seems to be desperate to appear pro-town now that he's accused of being the SK.

2. I am the last Mason. I think there's a very real danger that both Pleonast and I could get killed tonight. If that were to happen without me saying anything, no one would know the Masons were extinct, and the Mafia could potentially pose as one of us unopposed.

3. (Our three weapons are...) Vote Autolycus.

[glee]

I disagree. the other beat cop can investigate just as well without knowing what pima will be doing. Also, as I've said before, I think it's best if we don't reveal any more Masons unless we have to. They're going to be more powerful during the endgame, and outing them at this point only gives the Mafia a bigger pool to attack, and the Doctor a bigger pool to defend.

I think it is far better for Pimaspinner to announce.

At present there are many more Citizens than Mafia / SK (probably 23 to 6). Therefore risking all Beat Cops investigating the same person means they are likely to both get a Citizen. We need to cats our net wide.
Also suppose Pima is investigating the same suspect for the second time to improve his chances. Why would we want to risk the Beat Cops also checking that person?

Fern Forest,
I agree with Blaster Master's analysis. Once you come up as a significant role to a Beat Cop, the odds are high that you are.

I have another rule query for NAF1138 ( :eek: , sorry there are so many!), but it's pretty unimportant.
Do the Mafia know who the Godfather is when they first got their roles? (Obviously a sensible bunch of scum would sort that out the first night, but it would make a small difference if we had a game with a day first.)

[NAF1138]

I have another rule query for NAF1138 ( :eek: , sorry there are so many!), but it's pretty unimportant.
Do the Mafia know who the Godfather is when they first got their roles? (Obviously a sensible bunch of scum would sort that out the first night, but it would make a small difference if we had a game with a day first.)


No no, ask away, it's why I am here. Yes, the mafia know.

[glee]

I am the last Mason. I think there's a very real danger that both Pleonast and I could get killed tonight. If that were to happen without me saying anything, no one would know the Masons were extinct, and the Mafia could potentially pose as one of us unopposed.


Revealing the number of remaining Masons is not a good idea.

Here's what I suggest: one of the remaining Masons outs themselves (keep in mind I won't be around much on the weekend). I confirm that one. Night comes and one of us dies (to be fair, they should kill me first, but Mafia are scum, so who knows).

We repeat this ritual each day only one confirmed Mason is left. If a Mason is the last, he says as much. (I am not the last Mason. :D )

Why not to reveal exact numbers: the additional information helps the Mafia more than the Town.

I say, Pleonast - is Sturmhauke really a Mason?!

Oh, and should we draw any inferences from people who now either don't vote for a lynch, nor give a reason?
(Both Rysto and Pleonast voted for Autolycus, then perfectly reasonably unvoted, asking for more time)

[Hockey Monkey]

In case anyone is wondering, Autolycus now has 17 votes.

[Pleonast]

I am the last Mason. I think there's a very real danger that both Pleonast and I could get killed tonight. If that were to happen without me saying anything, no one would know the Masons were extinct, and the Mafia could potentially pose as one of us unopposed.Confirmed!

[Blaster Master]

2. I am the last Mason. I think there's a very real danger that both Pleonast and I could get killed tonight. If that were to happen without me saying anything, no one would know the Masons were extinct, and the Mafia could potentially pose as one of us unopposed.
I'm inclined to believe you for obvious reasons, but I don't want the day to end without Pleonast both confirming your claim that you're a mason and that there are no more.

That said, I strongly suspect at least one of you will live because if Fern Forest is the SK, he'll probably either go after a mafia (hopefully), or he'll exact his final revenge on me; depending on which side he intends to leave his mark. I can't imagine he'd go after a person that is likely protected... might as well make the last kill count, right?

[Blaster Master]

Argh... damn simul-post. I even previewed!

[ArizonaTeach]

Only three masons? Well, that sucks. Does anybody else think (pray) that this could possibly mean there are less mafia than the assumed nine? The rules said there could be up to six masons, and we only got half.

[Blaster Master]

Only three masons? Well, that sucks. Does anybody else think (pray) that this could possibly mean there are less mafia than the assumed nine? The rules said there could be up to six masons, and we only got half.
There was a fourth, but he was killed on the first night.

I'm also inclined to believe there are less than 9 mafia; I've been thinking there's probably more like 8 (including the GF).

[Rysto]

4 Masons. Captain Carrot was a Mason, too.

[glee]

Only three masons? Well, that sucks. Does anybody else think (pray) that this could possibly mean there are less mafia than the assumed nine? The rules said there could be up to six masons, and we only got half.

That's an interesting thought.

I think it is important to have game balance. Given we know of at least 1 Detective and 1 Beat Cop on the Town's side, I would have thought at least 8 Mafia would be needed?

P.S. Sorry if I'm posting a lot. :o My term restarts next week and I have meetings and paperwork most of the weekend.

[ArizonaTeach]

Whoops, my mistake. That's right, four.

[Hockey Monkey]

I thought this was interesting. Maybe no meaning to it at all, but....

People who have not voted for Autolycus:

Jsexton - said he was onboard with the plan in post #2410, but hasn't cast a vote yet
Fretful Porpentine - has posted thoughts on SK, but no vote
Kat
Lakai - PROBABLE MAFIA
Pygmy Rugger - PROBABLE MAFIA
Rysto - voted, then unvoted to allow more time for discussion
Pleonast - voted, then unvoted to allow for more time for discussion

And if course Autolycus. :D

[Santo Rugger]

<snip>
2. I am the last Mason. I think there's a very real danger that both Pleonast and I could get killed tonight. If that were to happen without me saying anything, no one would know the Masons were extinct, and the Mafia could potentially pose as one of us unopposed.
<snip>Vote Autolycus.

Wow, this game sure changes fast, doens't it? Now that this is the case, I retract my argument that pima shouldn't announce. Keeping the Masons hidden from the mob was my only point, and I had assumed there were at least two remaining since none had spoken up yet.

I thought this was interesting. Maybe no meaning to it at all, but....

People who have not voted for Autolycus:

Jsexton - said he was onboard with the plan in post #2410, but hasn't cast a vote yet
Fretful Porpentine - has posted thoughts on SK, but no vote
Kat
Lakai - PROBABLE MAFIA
Pygmy Rugger - PROBABLE MAFIA
Rysto - voted, then unvoted to allow more time for discussion
Pleonast - voted, then unvoted to allow for more time for discussion

And if course Autolycus. :D

Do you really think I need to vote for Auto at this time? :rolleyes:

I said I was going to hold off my vote because he needed some time to defend himself. He hasn't, but I didn't see any point in voting now, the clocks already started and there's not a real chance of him dropping below 10 in the next few hours.

[Fretful Porpentine]

I thought this was interesting. Maybe no meaning to it at all, but....

People who have not voted for Autolycus:

Jsexton - said he was onboard with the plan in post #2410, but hasn't cast a vote yet
Fretful Porpentine - has posted thoughts on SK, but no vote
Kat
Lakai - PROBABLE MAFIA
Pygmy Rugger - PROBABLE MAFIA
Rysto - voted, then unvoted to allow more time for discussion
Pleonast - voted, then unvoted to allow for more time for discussion

And if course Autolycus. :D
Well, I could vote for Autolycus, but it seems kind of pointless -- unless we're going for the sudden-death 24-vote majority. Let me know if you want me to.

[MadTheSwine]

I'm inclined to believe you for obvious reasons, but I don't want the day to end without Pleonast both confirming your claim that you're a mason and that there are no more.

That said, I strongly suspect at least one of you will live because if Fern Forest is the SK, he'll probably either go after a mafia (hopefully), or he'll exact his final revenge on me; depending on which side he intends to leave his mark. I can't imagine he'd go after a person that is likely protected... might as well make the last kill count, right?

I think Fern will go after one of the town power roles if he is the SK.So assuming we have a Miller out there, they really need to block Fern tonight.

[JSexton]

I thought this was interesting. Maybe no meaning to it at all, but....

People who have not voted for Autolycus:

Jsexton - said he was onboard with the plan in post #2410, but hasn't cast a vote yet
There was good conversation going on, and no need to start the clock. Now, with ~17 votes, there's not much point.

But sure, lynch autolycus,, just to make it official.

OK, I see the last mason claimed. I'm not sure that was the right play, since I would have loved for a scum to try counterclaiming Sturm if Pleo died. But cest la vie.

Also, one note in case I die tonight. Queuing is being treated as cleared, and I'm not sure why. I guess it's because of his perceived association with Gadarene, but I'll remind you that there's no way for non-mason townies to have associations. It could very well be that he was buddying up to Gadarene in order to look town. Also, recall his posts around the time he was nearly lynched. His theories then made perfect sense from the perspective of a mafioso who knew that Gadarene was town. You'll recall that I proposed vigging Queuing if Gadarene turned up town. I still think that was right. Few of you trust me, but keep this in mind after I die, ok?

[Aguecheek]

I agree with the list, I'm pretty much equally suspicious of Lakai and Aguecheek; I think the suspicion of Pygmy Rugger, while understandable, is not nearly as strong or justifiable.All right. Could you please outline what it is about me that is so "strong or justifiable?" I have responded to every suspicion raised about me and have received no feedback whatsoever. If it's 'cause of my going after sturmhauke on the first friggin' day, I responded to that. Twice. Look it up. If it's anything else, please lay it out so I can respond to it. I'm getting tired of this.

[Blaster Master]

Well, I could vote for Autolycus, but it seems kind of pointless -- unless we're going for the sudden-death 24-vote majority. Let me know if you want me to.
The only thing we're waiting for is pimaspinner's investigation announcement. After that, the other beat cop will know what to do, and the millers (if there are any) need to block Fern Forest (and if one thinks there's more than one, maybe he can try to block a probable mafia member), I need to vig Fern Forest, and the doc needs to do whatever he's doing that's keeping the important people alive (most likely random among himself, pimaspinner, and maybe me.

So basically... why not?

[Hockey Monkey]

The only thing we're waiting for is pimaspinner's investigation announcement. After that, the other beat cop will know what to do, and the millers (if there are any) need to block Fern Forest (and if one thinks there's more than one, maybe he can try to block a probable mafia member), I need to vig Fern Forest, and the doc needs to do whatever he's doing that's keeping the important people alive (most likely random among himself, pimaspinner, and maybe me.

So basically... why not?

I will investigate Lakai tonight.

[Fretful Porpentine]

OK, then, vote Autolycus.

[Blaster Master]

All right. Could you please outline what it is about me that is so "strong or justifiable?" I have responded to every suspicion raised about me and have received no feedback whatsoever. If it's 'cause of my going after sturmhauke on the first friggin' day, I responded to that. Twice. Look it up. If it's anything else, please lay it out so I can respond to it. I'm getting tired of this.
Unfortunately, I don't have time now to look through your posts (it would take at least an hour, and I have to leave for class before then), and when I do have time, the day will likely be over. Bottom line, if you're not mafia, it should more than likely exonerate you. If you have someone else you think is more suspicious, then by all means, make a suggestion, and pimaspinner will make the final judgment on it.

[NAF1138]

5 votes left to drop the hammer on the day.

[Blaster Master]

I will investigate Lakai tonight.
Do you have a suggestion for our, as of yet undiscovered, beat cop, or do you think his choice should remain anonymous so he doesn't accidently reveal himself trying to breadcrumb his results?

[Queuing]

Also, one note in case I die tonight. Queuing is being treated as cleared, and I'm not sure why. I guess it's because of his perceived association with Gadarene, but I'll remind you that there's no way for non-mason townies to have associations. It could very well be that he was buddying up to Gadarene in order to look town. Also, recall his posts around the time he was nearly lynched. His theories then made perfect sense from the perspective of a mafioso who knew that Gadarene was town. You'll recall that I proposed vigging Queuing if Gadarene turned up town. I still think that was right. Few of you trust me, but keep this in mind after I die, ok?

Didn't like my post, eh?

I am in no way cleared. I don't consider myself cleared. I have already claimed as a Citizen therefore I have no fall back plan. Right now I see nothing to gain from killing you or me or Rysto. Those are the people, who beyond their own posts (and role claims), have absolutely nothing backing them up. Yet all three are regarded as town. I don't know if Rysto is town or if you are the Doc. The only way to know is to kill you. We have more suspicious people to be looked at now, that us 3 are not worth worrying about currently.

Thanks for the pissy FOS though O guru. :dubious:

On preview, I don't see any reason to explicitly define the other Beat cop's target. They know who the top suspects are. They can choose as they want IMO. I just don't see an upside to telling everyone what to do.

[Santo Rugger]

5 votes left to drop the hammer on the day.

Well, since pima has announced, and Auto hasn't defended, far be it from me to hold up the process, Auto. I sure am going to miss his role playing. Hopefully his goodbye post will have some mob-speak, at least?

[Hockey Monkey]

Do you have a suggestion for our, as of yet undiscovered, beat cop, or do you think his choice should remain anonymous so he doesn't accidently reveal himself trying to breadcrumb his results?

No, the other beat cop can decide who they want to investigate on their own. If they want to investigate Lakai also, or someone else, I'm fine with either one. I see advantages to both situations.

[Blaster Master]

Also, one note in case I die tonight. Queuing is being treated as cleared, and I'm not sure why. I guess it's because of his perceived association with Gadarene, but I'll remind you that there's no way for non-mason townies to have associations. It could very well be that he was buddying up to Gadarene in order to look town. Also, recall his posts around the time he was nearly lynched. His theories then made perfect sense from the perspective of a mafioso who knew that Gadarene was town. You'll recall that I proposed vigging Queuing if Gadarene turned up town. I still think that was right. Few of you trust me, but keep this in mind after I die, ok?
I agree, Queuing is definitely not cleared; similarly, Rysto is by no means confirmed town (even though many are treating him as such). However, because of the events of day two, Queuing dropped on my suspicion list, and I'd rather go after the more suspicious in the mean time. As far as I'm concerned, the only "100% cleared" town are Pleonast, sturmhauke, pimaspinner, Menocchio (assuming Autolycus comes up GF, even if not, he's the very last suspect), and myself.

[Pleonast]

I'm probably hastening my own demise, but lynch Autolycus.

No matter what the results of tonight, we're going to have do thorough re-reads on the remaining players. Routing out the final few Mafia will not be simple, I think.

[Aguecheek]

Unfortunately, I don't have time now to look through your posts (it would take at least an hour, and I have to leave for class before then), and when I do have time, the day will likely be over.Good enough. Thank you. If you have someone else you think is more suspicious, then by all means, make a suggestion, and pimaspinner will make the final judgment on it.I'm currently doing two people's jobs at work and have not yet had a chance to go over confirmed scum postings for clues. But that's my current plan and I'll be posting what I get when I've a chance.

[Autolycus]

Geez, people here is takin' my silence as proof o' guilt? I's had a couple busy days.

I'm finally postin' it now, no joke. Just thought i'd's let ya know. As to why I's been takin' my time, it's cuz I don' wanna die just yet, capiche? Ok, times to crank up the noggin' and post away.

And I'm fuckin' hung over again :o

[glee]

OK, I see the last mason claimed. I'm not sure that was the right play, since I would have loved for a scum to try counterclaiming Sturm if Pleo died. But cest la vie.


Already posted:

I am the last Mason. I think there's a very real danger that both Pleonast and I could get killed tonight. If that were to happen without me saying anything, no one would know the Masons were extinct, and the Mafia could potentially pose as one of us unopposed.


So if the last two Masons died tonight, the Mafia would be hidden forever. :eek:
Not up to your usual standard, JSexton?

[glee]

Geez, people here is takin' my silence as proof o' guilt? I's had a couple busy days.


Actually it's because of:

- your Mafia-style 'accent' (which only the Godfather might try seeing as he 'registers' as Town)
- your huge majority of content-free posts
- the support that known Mafia posters have given you not to be lynched

Obviously anyone can be busy. Still you have posted over a dozen times in that period (without saying anything...)

[Autolycus]

<snip>

Oh cram it. Maybe I'm just paranoid, but IMHO you dont like me personally and have wanted me out of this thread since its inception. Stop honking the horn on this retarded bandwagon.

[Queuing]

Oh cram it. Maybe I'm just paranoid, but IMHO you dont like me personally and have wanted me out of this thread since its inception. Stop honking the horn on this retarded bandwagon.
Personally I think you are somewhat funny. However:

HONK HONK!

Can we see the defense now?

[storyteller0910]

Personally I think you are somewhat funny. However:

HONK HONK!

Can we see the defense now?

This time he's going to do it. This time Autolycus isn't going to pull the football away. We're really going to kick the -

AUGH!

[Autolycus]

OK, here it is, the moment you've all been waiting for, My defense post.

I'm sorry to those who want more mob speak, but I have to go to the gym in 5 minutes. My 19 hours of silence has been busy, and my seemingly infuriating 'contentless' posts to some were my best effort at keeping involved in the game. I also wanted to see if people would dig themselves into a hole, because I am not the GF. Oh, but of course I would say that, you say? Yeah, well no shit.

I've never killed anybody, and that's the honest truth, you know, as compared to the dishonest kind. Seriously though, here is my role claim.... *drum roll*.... I. aaaaaammmm! BA DUM! Vanilla Townie! Oooooooooh what a surprise. I'm truly sorry that I didn't get a power role, or that I dont have the chutzpah to lie about being one, because apparently that's a good way to stay alive and/or fool the fuck out of this gullible-ass town.

It makes me sick to see how happy everyone is acting, because we are nowhere near out of the woods yet. These mafia are smart cookies, and they have a web of bullshit wrapped so tight around this town that it makes Jenna Jameson's pussy look like a Chinese thumb-screw. (now I'm confused...) Anyway, it's obvious that some people in this town are major-ass liars. Note how my bandwagon drove some people out of the woodwork, like glee and some other low-profile people? I dont know what that means, but it means something I'm sure!

My way of playing this game is to observe. I observe and slowly and thoughtfully make my own decisions, by myself and free from as much influence as I can. The more you base your observations on others, the more likely you are to get fucked over, ok? It's quite simple. Anyway, that is why most of my posts are free from content. I dont like saying something until I'm damn sure, which in this game is proving very difficult. You guys are good, honestly.

I might as well talk about the GF charge, because that's what's getting everyone's panties in a bunch. Here's what you have to think about this accussation. All the puzzle pieces fit, but that's only because you bought the right puzzle. I admit that it all sounds very good if you think about it using preconceived notions and rely on the bullshit of the alleged beat-cop (the only person I trust is Blaster Master). I'm almost sad that you guys are wrong, because my play style would have been an awesome GF. However, I'm not that smart. I'm not the GF and I am not the SK nor anything else special, I'm just a regular townie. Of course, you will probably still kill me to be sure, because you are such friendly town people *cough.. mafia...cough* It's like a court of law, or at least it should be. One should not hang just because you have set up a notion that merely sounds good, but has no basis in anything factual. You're all so happy that you may have caught the GF that you are going to kill another townie, but of course nobody will mourn my death so whatever right? I've had a good run, so I'm not gonna cry about it.

I'll make an example. You're a housewife, and on the kitchen table you see a cookie with a bite out of it. You have a little 3 year old who loves cookies, so you blame him for doing it and he cries. Of course he did it, because it all makes so much sense! What you dont know is that the husband took the bite, meaning to eat the whole thing, but then forgot about it. You made your son cry for no reason, congratulations wonder mom.

Ok, so what about the mob talk? I can explain that too. I am loathe to do so, because it totally shoots my strategy in the face, but I have no choice at this late hour, being only 5 votes away from instant death. One, I am role playing. This is a game of mafia, and I am having fun talking like somebody who lives in a mafia town. But that's really not my main objective. My real reason was that, by talking like a mafia, I would attract the town's lynch mob often enough to keep myself safe from the mafia killing me. Unhelpful to the town? Perhaps, but I want to live damnit. I figured if I talked like a mafia and stirred shit up every now and then, I would keep myself safe from the mafia. So far it's been working, but I didn't think I would be in the shitter with the lynch mob so soon. It's a risk I thought I couuld take. Anyway, now that I've explained myself, my whole strategy is dead, so I expect to die in some form today or tomorrow. Great job guys.

So, if by some miracle I dont get lynched, I suppose I should point the FoS at some people right? I'm right now thinking Glee, Fretful Porpentine, MadTheSwine, PimaSpimmer, and that's all for now. If I dont get killed by 5 more votes, then I will try to post some analysis.

There you go, dead man walking. Enjoy.

[sturmhauke]

OK, I see the last mason claimed. I'm not sure that was the right play, since I would have loved for a scum to try counterclaiming Sturm if Pleo died. But cest la vie.
The main reason I claimed is because I think Fern Forest is the SK, and he has it in for me. Well, possibly not anymore if he wants to kill scum.

[NAF1138]

If I dont get killed by 5 more votes, then I will try to post some analysis.

There you go, dead man walking. Enjoy.
Sorry to tell you this... but its only 3 votes

[Rysto]

If pimaspinner and Blaster Master both have made their decisions for this night, there's nothing else to discuss. Vote Autolycus

[JSexton]

I am in no way cleared. I don't consider myself cleared.
Some people in the thread seem to have been expressing that opinion.

Thanks for the pissy FOS though O guru. :dubious:
Pissy? If you say so.

[JSexton]

So if the last two Masons died tonight, the Mafia would be hidden forever. :eek:
Not up to your usual standard, JSexton?
I saw that. I don't really see why a SK would go for a random townie who isn't posting much. I'd think that a cop or doc would be more likely, to preserve their cover and make sure kills go through.
The main reason I claimed is because I think Fern Forest is the SK, and he has it in for me. Well, possibly not anymore if he wants to kill scum.
Your call. It's a legitimate fear, and if you say you saw signs pointing that way, I'm not going to call you wrong. From my perspective, it didn't seem like a big risk.

[JSexton]

Autolycus: This is a team game. It's not an individual sport. You're essentially saying that you put oyur own survival and fun as your top priorities, and the success of the team a distant third.

That's not terribly helpful, and I'm fine with your lynch.

[hocow]

Auto, you realize that if you are actually town, you win if the town wins, regardless of your demise. You basically admitted that you were playing the game for your individual victory, and that is not helpful for the town as a team. (Again, this is going on notion that you are actually town.) The only way for us townies to win is by working together to weed out scum, not merely protect our own asses individually.

[glee]

Maybe I'm just paranoid, but IMHO you dont like me personally and have wanted me out of this thread since its inception.


I have no idea who you are in real life. :confused:
I explained early on that your content-free posts were no help to the Town (and even made it harder to read through the thread).
Note you're the only one posting in 'mafia-speak' during the day.
After a while, I decided you were either a non-team townie or Mafia and said so. That's the point of the game.
I don't dislike you personally - I voted for you because of your way of playing.


Anyway, it's obvious that some people in this town are major-ass liars. Note how my bandwagon drove some people out of the woodwork, like glee and some other low-profile people? I dont know what that means, but it means something I'm sure!


What exactly does 'bandwagon' and 'out of the woodwork' mean?
I suspect you.
I suspected Suburban Plankton too.


My way of playing this game is to observe. I observe and slowly and thoughtfully make my own decisions, by myself and free from as much influence as I can. The more you base your observations on others, the more likely you are to get fucked over, ok? It's quite simple. Anyway, that is why most of my posts are free from content. I dont like saying something until I'm damn sure, which in this game is proving very difficult. You guys are good, honestly.


Well so far the rest of us have discovered 4 Masons, 4 Mafia, 1 Detective, 1 Beat Cop, 1 Vigilante, plus a claim for the Doctor.
When were you going to post some analysis?


I might as well talk about the GF charge, because that's what's getting everyone's panties in a bunch. Here's what you have to think about this accussation. All the puzzle pieces fit, but that's only because you bought the right puzzle. I admit that it all sounds very good if you think about it using preconceived notions and rely on the bullshit of the alleged beat-cop (the only person I trust is Blaster Master). I'm almost sad that you guys are wrong, because my play style would have been an awesome GF. However, I'm not that smart. I'm not the GF and I am not the SK nor anything else special, I'm just a regular townie. Of course, you will probably still kill me to be sure, because you are such friendly town people *cough.. mafia...cough*


At least 21 players have voted to lynch you. The clear majority are Citizens.

[brewha]

<snip>My 19 hours of silence has been busy <snip>

Yeah, you've been busy (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/search.php?searchid=2461815&pp=25&page=2) since you got fingered as Godfather. I counted 40 posts in 10 hrs.

You were on the dope the whole time, but didn't come up with a defense.
Hmm... :dubious:

[brewha]

Strike that ^

I meant 6.5 hrs.

[cowgirl]

Auto, I was hoping for a better defense.

The problem with what you have posted is (as others have pointed out) that if you are indeed telling the truth, you have been acting like a jerk and still deserve to be lynched. You have not given us any reason to not lynch you.

To be fair, however, I would like to hear the results of your thoughtful analysis of your independent observations. We are a fair bunch; if (in the remaining time available) you can make your case about why those you've FOS'd are mafia, and if your revelation is sufficiently persuasive, I expect that many of us would be happy to change our votes.

So let's hear it. I'm ready to give your story a fair trial. I'm not ready to change my vote, but I'm ready to listen and the clock can be stopped if the group wills it. There's still a bit of time.

If you can't do it, and you're not the Godfather, then what have you been doing here?

[Hockey Monkey]

Only 2 votes needed to end the day early. (Kat and Lakai)

Auto, if it turns out you are town, I'm sorry, but you haven't managed to convince me.

[Rysto]

The day ends in 2 1/2 hours anyway.

[NAF1138]

The day ends in 2 1/2 hours anyway.


??

I have 5 hours on my clock.

[ArizonaTeach]

To be fair, however, I would like to hear the results of your thoughtful analysis of your independent observations. Seconded.
I can sympathize that, as a vanilla townie, you don't have any bread crumbs to drop -- but you haven't been helping at all. In fact, you've been pretty openly defiant. Yes, I get the "roleplaying," yes I get the fact that you want to "live" - but both of those actions are actively hindering the game. And in your big defense in which you talk about all your analysis, all you do is try to condemn the people who most of the town agree with. What's your justification for mistrusting pima? Granted, if the mafia threw FCOD to the mob in order for the town to gain pima's trust, that's some damn fine playing. But the odds against that...man...no...I don't buy it. Try to convince me, because in a few hours, I believe we'll have the godfather swinging from the rafters and a serial killer dead in the street by morning.

[Rysto]

??

I have 5 hours on my clock.
Oh? I though it was 5PM Pacific. You know, I'm just going to let you handle ending the Day, because clearly, I can't do it properly.

[NAF1138]

Nope, the regular day would have ended at 5pm...but not until Monday. Brewha posted his clock starting vote at 7:51. I figured everyone would remember it better if I rounded up to 8pm (what's 9 minutes between friends right?)


Not a big deal.


2 votes left to hammer.

[Lakai]

I'm just wondering, but since people seem to be suspicious of me because I defended Auto, would it make sense to investigate me if Auto turns out to be town?

Oh, and in my big conspiracy theory post way back in day 2 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8422025&postcount=1064) , it appears I completely outed the masons. I figured as much when Zuma and Pleonast both claimed, that since these guys voted alike and weren't mafia, they had to be the other group of people who would trust each other. Good thing no one took me too seriously.

Since I am being investigated tonight, would it make sense and try to defend myself today? Since I'm a townsman, it would be in the interest of the town to investigate someone else right?

[Lakai]

That should be:

Since I am being investigated tonight, would it make sense for me to try to defend myself today? Since I'm a townsman, it would be in the interest of the town to investigate someone else right?

[Fretful Porpentine]

So, if by some miracle I dont get lynched, I suppose I should point the FoS at some people right? I'm right now thinking Glee, Fretful Porpentine, MadTheSwine, PimaSpimmer, and that's all for now.
Whee, my first FoS!!! I was beginning to think I looked way too innocent for this game :)

[Autolycus]

I win if the town wins, even if I am dead? I've always played that you lose when you die. See, that would have really changed my approach to this thing :smack:

As I expected, I see I haven't convinced anyone to unvote me. It makes me sad that when I die and am revealed innocent, people are actually going to be glad to get rid of my 'unhelpful' posts. Oh well, I built my house of cards, and now the dominos are falling around me, checkmate.

Guys, this town is fucked. Right now everyone is behaving that we're in a comfortable situation, what with the Vig, the doc, a beat cop, and some masons all allegedly identified, but all it takes is one or two of those roles to be a lie to totally screw us over. I dont think it's a conspiracy to the level Winston was taking it, but this situation definitely reaks of well-crafted bullshit. Very well-crafted, because there are no obvious lies or logical discrepancies. But you know what they say, if it's too good to be true...... Anyway, we had one bad night and one good night, and now you're letting your euphoria get to your heads. Again, I'm not the godfather people. It's just a theory that happens to fit a priori, but conveniently lacks any factual basis.

Here's another thing in my defense. If I was mafia, and my play style was truly brilliant, I would naturally have a solid defense prepared for this inevitable situation. The mafia have the power in this game, at least initially, and, if I was the godfather, a lot of mafia people would be rising up in my defense. A ballsy mafia play such as people think I've been doing would have a proper defense plan in case of a lynching. As you can see, I have no great defense. Thus, I am not the mafia. Not the most logical defense, but it has a certain elegance to it dont you think? Probably not, but whatever. You're going to lynch me no matter what I say, so fuck it.

It's a catch 22 for me you see. I dont have mafia backing me up, I dont have town people backing me up, and I dont have any real plan of defense other than pointing out what's happening to me from a different perspective. All I can do at this point is tell the truth, that I am a regular, vanilla citizen. I was playing thinking that death = loss, and I tailored my strategy accordingly. I admit that I'm not very helpful to the town at the moment, but lynching me will not help either.

Let's say that again. Lynching me does the town no good, nada, zilch. Of course if I'm mafia, then you gain, but assuming for the sake of argument that I'm innocent, my death gains you nothing. I dont have any crumbs to drop, and nobody really cares about my death in either direction. I am chaff, and am being treated like it. When I play this game, lynching is taken much more seriously b/c death = game over, a loss, do not pass go, do not collect 200$. Here, we are treating it as a murderous tool, making us no better than mafia IMO. And, we still have the SK on the loose, making each lynching that much closer to total defeat for everyone. So far our lynches have failed to turn up anything majorly substantial, and ending the day early without more deliberation only helps the mafia. Sadly, b/c of my suspicious behavior, the mafia get to hop on this bandwagon without any fear of recrimination. Because of my behavior, I think the people organizing the "Kill Auto" campaign are overzealous citizens, but I'd look strongly on anybody expressing interest to kill me quickly and start the night again. I'll leave that to you junior detectives to figure out who that is.

Again, lynching me will help nobody except the mafia, so, I have a proposal to make. I have a proposal to make!. I hereby humbly request that the Mafia kill me tonight. If I survive the night, you can lynch me tomorrow. If I dont survive, then it's a moot point. Look, the lynch is a tool to us, and we should use it on somebody that will give out information. I am not that person.

Please kill me mafia. If you dont kill me, then the town will. I'd rather be shot than hung anyway, haha.

That's all I have to say for now. I'll talk in mob speak later. I didn't post in it for now b/c it makes understanding me difficult to say the least.

[Autolycus]

Wait, the day ends in half an hour? Awwww bummer. I guess I'll start typin' my farewell speech :(

You guys are making a big mistake, but whatever... my death doesnt change anything except puttin' one more corpse on the pile. At least I dont lose automatically like I thought, so I suppose there's always a silver lining.

[NAF1138]

Wait, the day ends in half an hour?

NO, you have until 8pm Pacific time. So you have...more or less... 3.5 hours.


Sheesh.

[ArizonaTeach]

I'll ask again:
What's your justification for mistrusting pima?

[Autolycus]

I'll ask again:
What's your justification for mistrusting pima?

It's just too good to be true. We've had people role-claiming all over the place, and everything seems to be fitting together so perfectly. From having played these games a lot in the past, I think it's clear that somebody is BSing a role-claim and deceiving the town. Whether that's Jsexton or Pimaspinner is unclear, but I do trust Blaster Master now, as he has proven himself over the past few days.

[ArizonaTeach]

Ok, I grant you that (although FCOD's claim was a lie, so maybe that's the BS you were hinting at), but zuma and Pleonast turned out to be correct, no? So all you're really saying is that you don't trust JSexton and pima. And for your conspiracy to be true, then that means the mafia conspired to kill one of their own, FCOD, from damn near the beginning of the game. Now, if you're town, and Fern Forest is town, then we might have a problem with pima. But I don't see that happening. I guess I'd rather see something more substantial from you except "gut feeling." The fact that you were defended by mafia early on, that your actions have been, by your own admissions, hindering the town, and the fact that a lot of people I trust seem to be lining up with the rope...

Sorry dude, but...the odds of you being scum (maybe not even GF) are far, far greater than the odds of a conspiracy right now. You've got to see that.

[Kat]

I thought this was interesting. Maybe no meaning to it at all, but....

People who have not voted for Autolycus:
Kat

Sorry, I did post that I was gonna be away for 12 hours today, and I didn't want to vote beforehand in case Auto role-claimed.

Lynch Autolycus.

[Hockey Monkey]

Ok, I grant you that (although FCOD's claim was a lie, so maybe that's the BS you were hinting at), but zuma and Pleonast turned out to be correct, no? So all you're really saying is that you don't trust JSexton and pima. And for your conspiracy to be true, then that means the mafia conspired to kill one of their own, FCOD, from damn near the beginning of the game. Now, if you're town, and Fern Forest is town, then we might have a problem with pima. But I don't see that happening. I guess I'd rather see something more substantial from you except "gut feeling." The fact that you were defended by mafia early on, that your actions have been, by your own admissions, hindering the town, and the fact that a lot of people I trust seem to be lining up with the rope...

Sorry dude, but...the odds of you being scum (maybe not even GF) are far, far greater than the odds of a conspiracy right now. You've got to see that.

If Fern Forest and Autolycus both turn out to be town, I think I'm gonna have a problem with me too. :p

[glee]

That should be:

Since I am being investigated tonight, would it make sense for me to try to defend myself today? Since I'm a townsman, it would be in the interest of the town to investigate someone else right?

At the moment, you're the only one not voting to lynch Autolycus.
You may need to explain that later...

[Lakai]

I am going to go ahead and defend myself against Blaster Master. What I hope to get from this is that hopefully people will stop listening to him or his reasoning will get better. Remember, quality over quantity.

Okay... let's review then, shall we?

Like nesta and kivvik, you failed to make a vote on day one.
I voted for Queuing on day one.

You voted to lynch Pleonast (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414759&postcount=636) with shaky reasoning. You point out the bandwagon from Autolycus to Enfant Terrible, and then say Pleonast is more suspicious for supporting and improved version of chrisk's idea? Why didn't you just vote for chrisk?

I did not vote for chrisk because I thought it would be better to vote from the list of people who voted for Enfant Terrible.


A defense of Autolycus (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414795&postcount=638) (our current GF suspect); granted, it was against my faulty reasoning, and it was appropriately addressed by zuma later, but you made no attempt to address the reasoning.

Why should I have addressed the reasoning when zuma did a good job of addressing it?

Then you "reluctantly" change your vote (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415625&postcount=702) to chrisk, still pushing for Pleonast, when the whole reason you didn't like Pleonast was because he supported chrisk. ???


Correct. Why are you so puzzled by this? I had a theory about Pleonast being in a network with other posters and I wanted to test it out by voting for him or any of the posters in the network. He was in a network with other posters, but it wasn’t exactly what I hoped. Still, when he and Zuma claimed I realized my mistake.

Then you change your vote back (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8417057#post8417057) to Pleonast and FOS me.

Another vague defense of Autolycus (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8417794&postcount=828) and another FOS at me, Pleonast, Storyteller, and sturmhauke.

Yes, I wanted to test out my theory so anyone that wasn’t in my network I did not want to lynch.

Here's an example of a seemingly helpful but doesn't really add anything post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418112&postcount=845).

What is wrong with being helpful?

Then you defend FCOD (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418517&postcount=883), and point the FOS at Pleonast and me again.

I did not defend FCOD, I just said we could learn more if we vote for Pleonast.


And again... (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8422025&postcount=1064)

Read this post again. It explains why I did everything I did on day two.

Then you switch your vote AGAIN (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8422151&postcount=1068), this time to try and start the clock on me.

Anyone of my suspects would have been fine.

Then you question why I role-claimed (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8422833&postcount=1116). ???

No. I questioned why another Vig would counter claim you if you somehow weren’t the Vig.

Then you try (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8422982&postcount=1133) and again (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8423054&postcount=1143) to keep the FOS on me even after the plan was established to test my claim.

It’s funny you should say that since in both those posts I defended your claim. I said twice that there is no way you can get away with your claim if you lied.

Then you support VIGing Zuma (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8424713&postcount=1315).

Again, it was all about testing out my theory. At this point it became about testing Pleonast’s and your role claim as well.


Then a vague defense of Aguecheek (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8434178&postcount=1779), another individual high on many people's scum lists right now.

I was really asking Jsexton for clarification on his reasoning.


Then a vote for pimaspinner (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435064&postcount=1794).

Then you FOS pimaspinner AGAIN (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435209&postcount=1803), and essentailly support random FOSing.

Pimaspinner was acting fishy and I called him on it. I voted to get his attention. That should be OK with you since you seem to think that anyone that defends himself without getting any votes is suspicious. That second post was in no way supporting random FOSing. What I said was we should question suspicious behavior. I assumed everyone would understand that I meant logically question suspicious behavior, I guess I was wrong.

This is your only vote for mafia (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8443291&postcount=2007), and only AFTER he was outed by pimaspinner.

At least I got one right. :)


And after push the FCOD thing REALLY hard for several posts, you claim we don't have enough time to get the Suburban Plankton train going (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8446170&postcount=2194) and should just vote for Fern Forest.
Who was equally suspicious at the time. I just did not want Jsexton to get killed because people would not vote collectively. We only had about five hours left. It appears people are following the thread more closely than I thought.


So, what do I see in ALL of your posts? Several are either completely contentless or of the "seemingly helpful, but not really type" like vote counting. ALL of your votes, except for the one for FCOD AFTER he was outted, were for what are now 100% confirmed non-mafia (100% townie, if you don't include Fern Forest, who is either townie or SK, which is still in the mafia's favor). You defended Autolycus (suspected GF), FCOD (confirmed mafia), Suburban Plankton (confirmed mafia), and Aguecheek (higher on most people's scum list than you are). You chastized Suburban Plankton for his idea in a manor that seems more consistent with "you fool, they're FOSing you, STOP IT!" than "I really think we should vote for you". Why didn't you vote Suburban Plankton after that, oh so convincing, performance?


I’d like to note that I was the first (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435280&postcount=1807) to question (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435433&postcount=1816) Suburban Plankton on his suspicious behavior. You later agree (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8436128&postcount=1833) with me, but are now saying that it was all a mafia scam. I suppose you can look at it that way if you believe that I’m a mafia member who is truly dull enough to raise suspicion on his own member (that was strong enough to get him lynched.)


THEN, to top it all, you get hyper defensive when people FOS you, without getting even a single vote? If you really aren't mafia, then you shouldn't have much of a problem at all with people suggesting that you be investigated... as the investigation should, more likely than not, exonerate you of your mafia charges.

If I didn't think that lynching Autolycus today was most in the town's favor, I'd vote for you. Maybe we can just get to that tomorrow?

I’m being investigated by a beat cop. There is a good chance that he could say that I’m mafia and everyone would rush to lynch me because that is the best you guys have. I’m not mafia, therefore I think it is a wasted investigation. Hopefully I can convince Pimaspinner to change his target to someone else. If not, then I hope he gets the right result.

Since you’re basically confirmed as pro town, all I can think to say is that you’ve become more suspicious of me because I called you the mafia’s lap dog. Sorry, that is my opinion. You seem to me as someone who eats up random reasoning and then runs around with it. Plus I thought you FOSed me because of what cowgirl said, but it turns out your reasons are far worst. All you have is my vote record and cherry picked evidence of me defending suspected and confirmed mafia. You even twisted what I said to Suburban Plankton to suit your warped version of events.

[Lakai]

At the moment, you're the only one not voting to lynch Autolycus.
You may need to explain that later...

I will vote for him because his death is inevitable, but before I do I want to say I think he is probably town.

Now I might be wrong and look like an idiot come night time, but that is what I think.

Good night Auto.

[glee]

I am going to go ahead and defend myself against Blaster Master. What I hope to get from this is that hopefully people will stop listening to him or his reasoning will get better.


Carry on.
But everything gets read in this thread!


I’m being investigated by a beat cop. There is a good chance that he could say that I’m mafia and everyone would rush to lynch me because that is the best you guys have. I’m not mafia, therefore I think it is a wasted investigation. Hopefully I can convince Pimaspinner to change his target to someone else. If not, then I hope he gets the right result.


What do you mean 'a good chance'? :confused:

If you're not Mafia (nor the Serial Killer), then the Beat Cop is 50% to find your true identity. Even if the Beat Cop makes a mistake, you're equally likely to be labelled as: Mason / Beat Cop / Detective / Miller / Vigilante / Doctor / Guardian Angel / Mafia / Serial Killer.
Pretty good odds there.

Of course if you are Mafia...

P.S. Still not voting for Autolycus?

[Lakai]

P.S. Still not voting for Autolycus?
Look up.

[StarvingButStrong]

P.S. Still not voting for Autolycus?


I think his 'good night auto' in blue counts as a vote.

[Hockey Monkey]

OK, that's the final nail in the coffin. I guess that means it's night and we shouldn't be strategizing now, even though it's not offical yet.

[glee]

Look up.

Hey! It was a simul post! :)

[NAF1138]

Well you did end the day a bit early after all.

OK give me a few minutes and I will post the lynch. I am just checking on the thread while I cook dinner.

Back in a minute.

[Queuing]

Is dinner not done YET?

:p

[ArizonaTeach]

Whatcha havin', NAF?
Is it gooooood?
Is it yuuuuuuumy?
Is it MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE GAME?!?!?

[glee]

Is dinner not done YET?

:p

It's 03.57 in the morning here in the UK.
But I'm not going to bed till the result is in!

[Lakai]

It's 03.57 in the morning here in the UK.
But I'm not going to bed till the result is in!
Very evil post glee. ;)

[Kat]

Whatcha havin', NAF?
Is it gooooood?
Is it yuuuuuuumy?
Is it MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE GAME?!?!?
This just made me laugh my ass off.

[Queuing]

Blue circle turn green..........NOW

[Hockey Monkey]

I brought my laptop to bed with me so I can hear when I have mail. This thread is set to alert with every post. :D

NAF, are there gonna be any leftovers? I'm hungry.

[Rysto]

He's online....

[glee]

Very evil post glee. ;)

Since midnight I've watched some episodes of CSI (series 6 part 1 just came out over here) and played some Civ 4. :cool:
Now I'm defragmenting my other computer - which quite frankly is not interesting. :smack:

If this keeps up, I might see the dawn... :eek:

[StarvingButStrong]

Autolycus has been swinging on that rope for what seems like hours now, strangling oh-so-slowly. He's turning blue. His legs are kicking!


C'mon, even if you don't care about *us*, you could at least put *him* out of his misery.

[Blaster Master]

I am going to go ahead and defend myself against Blaster Master.
FWIW, I dunno if you would have convinced pimaspinner or not, but depending on the results, I will address your defense in detail, in light of his results in the morning, as we should not be strategizing at this time.



That said... I wasn't expecting a full vote count before I got home... wow.

[Queuing]

The full count was, I think, irrelevant. The 12 hour window has closed now anyway.

[NAF1138]

I brought my laptop to bed with me so I can hear when I have mail. This thread is set to alert with every post. :D

NAF, are there gonna be any leftovers? I'm hungry.


Dinner was quite tastey thanks for asking. Made some chow mein, lots of veggies and chicken, but...no leftover. Sorry pimma.

Ok, that isn't what you are all here for.

Let see, back in Doperville:

The town was quite frantic. Had pimma given them the keys to defeating the mafia AND the SK? Yesterday had worked out so well that they decided to waste no time finding out. Their sights were leveled on the town drunk, and part time mob impersonator Autolycus. Auto had been a controversial figure in the town before, but now it seemed he might be more. Could it be, was he the Godfather of the mafia? The town, in an unprecedented fit of mass agreement grabbed Autolycus and strung him up by the neck. Then they found out the truth...

Autolycus- Citizen

is dead.

The night will end at 6pm on saturday or as soon as all the night votes are in.

Hope all of you night owls get some rest. See ya in the morning!

[StarvingButStrong]

Shit.

[Rysto]

Damn. Sorry, Autolycus.

[Queuing]

Dammit!

Sigh.

RIP Autolycus

[Kat]

The Curse is back.

[glee]

And so to bed.

[sturmhauke]

Son of a mother!

[Hockey Monkey]

Well crap.

[MadTheSwine]

Crap...I's needs mes some beers.

[Lakai]

At least I don't look like an idiot for defending him.

R.I.P. Auto.

[MonkeyMensch]

Well. Shit in a basket.

[ArizonaTeach]

Dammit. I need to stop getting so worked up. Don't feel like hitting the bar tonight...

[Autolycus]

So long, and thanks for all the fish :)

[Santo Rugger]

Dammit. I need to stop getting so worked up. Don't feel like hitting the bar tonight...

Not me, I could use a drink. I hate to say it, but I'm glad Auto won't be at the bar. He got me pretty trashed the first night I was here with those silly Blue Lagoons of his. I'll just have a pint of stout, for now, thanks. :)

[Fretful Porpentine]

So long, and thanks for all the fish :)
Have fun in the Forbidden Thread! (I'm dying to find out why you FoSed me, but I guess it will have to wait until the game is over.)

[Kat]

Don't feel like hitting the bar tonight...

I do. I need a drink. Or five.

[Fern Forest]

*hands on hips*

Well!


Must ... resist ... posting ... content.

See you guys in the morning for my farewell post. That is if our night people get their votes in tout suite.

[Menocchio]

It's never the obvious ones, is it? Yet, we cannot overlook them. Such is the paradox of our game.

[Malacandra]

Ah, I see the Fuck-Up Fairy is back from her day off. :smack:

[sturmhauke]

The only reason she had a day off is because she's a fuck-up and didn't come in.

[StarvingButStrong]

Back to doom 'n' gloom in the bar. Sorry, Autolycus.

Barkeep, give me a Blue Lagoon in his memory.

[hocow]

Sorry, Auto.

*Orders 2 drinks, pours one into the dirt*

One for me, and one for my homie...

[Aguecheek]

Yeesh. Cheers, Auto.

I'm gonna curl up in the corner and go to sleep. My head hurts.

[Blaster Master]

Erm... does it count as strategizing if I apologize for my REALLY bad math yesterday concerning Fern Forest and the probability of being the SK; I forgot to normalize my probabilities. I'll post my corrected math in the morning (since I imagine math counts as strategizing), and I promise to normalize from now on.

[storyteller0910]

Erm... does it count as strategizing if I apologize for my REALLY bad math yesterday concerning Fern Forest and the probability of being the SK; I forgot to normalize my probabilities. I'll post my corrected math in the morning (since I imagine math counts as strategizing), and I promise to normalize from now on.

Yeah! Come on, how could you forget to... erm... to normalate... your... wait, what?

- storyteller, English major

[Blaster Master]

Yeah! Come on, how could you forget to... erm... to normalate... your... wait, what?

- storyteller, English major

Yeah, I know, seriously; I'm such a dumbass! :smack: Especially considering all my courses this semester are very statistics heavy. At least none of my professors read the dope, or at least don't know it's me... right?

[ArizonaTeach]

Is there any way to blame what happened to Auto on bad math?

[Hockey Monkey]

Is there any way to blame what happened to Auto on bad math?


No, I'm thinking I'm the one to blame since I brought the whole thing up. It made so much damned sense though. :smack: :(

[Malacandra]

Don't worry pima. I'm sure there'll be some very searching questions asked if we don't nail the SK tonight either. :dubious:

[ArizonaTeach]

What Malacandra said...

...scoots my bar stool away from pima...

[Hockey Monkey]

What Malacandra said...

...scoots my bar stool away from pima...



:(

[hocow]

:(

Aww, pima, you can sit by me. :)

[Blaster Master]

Is there any way to blame what happened to Auto on bad math?
Yes, because the probability that Fern Forest is the SK is a lot smaller than I showed, which makes any deductions based on him being the SK that much more likely to be untrue. I just spent more time than I should have going back over my math formulae and deriving (and proving, this time) simple formulae to give percentages based on the beat cop's investigations. So, unless NAF will let me post them now (unlikely), I'll post them first thing when the next day starts, and hopefully we can be a little more "enlightened" in the future.

[cowgirl]

Bah. It all made so much sense. Oh well, we had nothing more to go on. Sorry Auto. Hope you're enjoying the nachos in the other thread. Have some extra guacamole, on me.

Tomorrow is going to be complicated. I can't decide whether a stiff drink will clear my head or cloud it.

Ah well, let's risk it. Barkeep: a pitcher of draft, please, and keep 'em coming.

*sigh*

[Kat]

:(

I'll sit by you, pima. You can scare away all the creeps and miscreants with your badge.

*waves to the bartender for another drink*

[MonkeyMensch]

Hey! What do you know!

I'm off the road and in time for a drink. Hmmm. T 'n' T, please with lemon not lime.

::Sits back and puts up the dogs::

[Fern Forest]

27 and 1/2 hours into the lonely ol' night. Somebody's taking their sweet time.

Well I guess I should start practicing my last words.

"Not in the face! Not in the face!"

[Kat]

You could try wearing a bullet-proof vest.

[Fern Forest]

I don't think Blaster Master's the gun in the back type. I am keeping an eye out for tiger traps though.

[Santo Rugger]

27 and 1/2 hours into the lonely ol' night. Somebody's taking their sweet time.

Well I guess I should start practicing my last words.

"Not in the face! Not in the face!"

I hate it when they say that!

[NAF1138]

This night in Doperville was bittersweet and quiet. Hard drinking was done by all.

Fern Forest was nervous about the night to come. It wasn't everyday that you get marked for death by the town Vigelante. So in an attempt at irony, Fern Forest started up the woodchipper behind the warehouses and called out into the night. "Come and get me Blaster Master!" This attempt at bravado did not save Fern Forest however. The bloody mess found on the ground was only identifyable by the dental records of the victim.

Blaster master was still covered in gore when they found him. His head facing the wrong way on his body, and his legs broken by what appeared to be a sledghammer.

JSexton was working in his office, working on new surgical techniques that could possibly save the life of one of the innocent citizens of the town. The last person who heard from him was his wife. He told her to kiss his newborn baby goodnight because he would be home late. That morning she recieved a fish wrappen in newspaper on her doorstep. JSexton was never seen again.

Fern Forest- Citizen
Blaster Master- Vigelante
&
JSexton- Doctor

are all dead.

These death scenes were brought to you tonight by the killers themselves. Hope you enjoyed them!

Its 10:30 am my time, so the next day ends at 10:30 am on Wednesday.


Good luck, and try to stay alive.

[MadTheSwine]

HOLY SHIT! We are in trouble now.

[Santo Rugger]

Wow. Every time I find out what happened during the night, I am wowed. FF wasn't the SK, and now we've lost our doctor and Vig. Part of the reason I had hoped we wouldn't reveal so many power roles so soon is that our doctor simply had too many people to protect, and couldn't protect them all. At this point in the game, the Vig was becoming more of a liability, though, because we kept pointing him at ourselves instead of at the mob. Hopefully tonight we'll be able to flush out some more scum.

We should take a close look at pima's claims, though. Tonight, s/he directly caused the deaths of two citizens (Auto and FF. Perhaps s/he's a beat cop, perhaps not. But from now on we should have him/her investigate somebody at least twice before reporting back to us on it. We simply can't afford to keep losing townies based on one nights (beat cop) results, especially given the recent track record.

[Lakai]

Awww crap.

[Lakai]

We should take a close look at pima's claims, though. Tonight, s/he directly caused the deaths of two citizens (Auto and FF.

It wasn't just him. The whole town went bonkers, yourself included.

[Fretful Porpentine]

But from now on we should have him/her investigate somebody at least twice before reporting back to us on it.
I'd emend this slightly -- pimaspinner should report all of his or her results as they come in, but the town should think long and hard before acting on them. I say this because if pimaspinner really is the Beat Cop, and gets bumped off tomorrow night -- as is quite likely -- it would be nice for us to know what the result of last night's investigation was, and if pimaspinner is in fact Mafia, we'll probably be able to infer something useful if we know which wrong directions he or she tried to steer us in.

That said, I think there are two lessons to be learned from the last day's tragic events: 1) pimaspinner may be a cop, but that doesn't mean that his or her hunches and theories are any better than the rest of ours when not backed up by investigations; and 2) any investigation that reveals the investigatee as having a unique power role is far more likely to be false than true.

[Fern Forest]

There's a definite theme to this game, we're extremely good at being suspicious of other townfolk.

Sorry Sturmhauke, what can I say, it made sense. Although I was right about JSexton.


Freedom's just another word for nothing left to do.

[brewha]

Huh. I think we're screwed.

[Blaster Master]

What a wonderful thing; waking up dead. Not only was I unable to avenge the death of my beloved at the hands of the serial killer, but also I fell to the same hand. You must carry out my vengence for me!

Seriously though, that was a REALLY bad night... the loss of the doctor, a confirmed citizen, another citizen, and it's only going to get worse with no doctor. Good luck, we're really going to need it to pull it off now. On the plus side, at least you all got rid of my loud, obnoxious self. I KNEW I was wasting my time working out those formulae... oh well.

Off to the forbidden thread.

[hocow]

Oof. :(

[glee]

It wasn't just him. The whole town went bonkers, yourself included.

I don't agree at all.

Autolycus posted almost exclusively Mafia-speak content-free posts.
He was defended on several occasions by what turned out to be known Mafia.
He posted illegally at night and edited illegally.
He didn't seem to understand the rules.
Clearly he was either a Townie playing for himself, or the Godfather trying to attract a Cop to investigate him and reveal a 'Townie'.
Finally his lynch defence was not convincing.
(Also you really wouldn't have wanted him to be one of the last Townies, would you?)

Pimaspinner claimed to be a Beat Cop and gave a result worth investigating.


...any investigation that reveals the investigatee as having a unique power role is far more likely to be false than true.


Can you explain your maths?
(Beat Cops get a 50% chance of correctly identifying their suspect, whether they have a unique power role or not.)

[glee]

We should take a close look at pima's claims, though. Tonight, s/he directly caused the deaths of two citizens (Auto and FF. Perhaps s/he's a beat cop, perhaps not.


Fair enough.


But from now on we should have him/her investigate somebody at least twice before reporting back to us on it. We simply can't afford to keep losing townies based on one nights (beat cop) results, especially given the recent track record.

It would be mathematically much better, but I don't think there's much time for this.
Presumably if Pimaspinner is a Beat Cop he gets killed next night. And once any other Beat Cop reveals a result (or is threatened by a Town lynch), theyir life expectancy is quite short. :eek:

[JSexton]

Good luck everyone. Be wary.

[Rysto]

Guys, I think that we're getting played here. Here's the post count in this thread:

Blaster Master 214 - Confirmed town(dead)
Queuing 197
NAF1138 171
zuma 151 - Confirmed town(dead)
Gadarene 118 - Confirmed town(dead)
Fern Forest 112 - Confirmed town(dead)
pimaspinner 108
Rysto 98
glee 90
Autolycus 86 - Confirmed town(dead)
Kat 85
MadTheSwine 85
JSexton 81 - Confirmed town(dead)
FlyingCowOfDoom 75 - Confirmed scum(dead)
Pygmy Rugger 67
Malacandra 67
MonkeyMensch 66
Lakai 63
storyteller0910 56
Menocchio 55
ArizonaTeach 55
Pleonast 54 - Confirmed town(Mason)
Winston Smith 50 - Confirmed town(dead)
Suburban Plankton 48 - Confirmed scum(dead)
Aguecheek 47
brewha 47
Fretful Porpentine 44
kivvik 43 - Confirmed scum(dead)
StarvingButStrong 42
hocow 39
chrisk 34
sturmhauke 29 - Confirmed town(Mason)
nesta 27 - Confirmed scum(dead)
CaerieD 18 - Confirmed town(dead)
cowgirl 17
Smitty 13

We keep killing off the prolific posters and they keep coming up Town. Meanwhile, our SK kept killing the low post-count players, and they kept coming up Mafia. I think that we've reached the point where we have to demand that people participate more, or we'll lynch them.

[Menocchio]

Pima dies tonight. So, really, it's not worth arguing about what we should do regarding future readings.

I make no apologies for yesterday's decisions. It all made perfect sense. Autolycus wasn't the playing the game. His behavior being a dodge for the GF was simply the more charitable of the options.

Fern Forest was at least a quarter way to a lynching before the cop claim. And that was a 50% probablity of being correct. In the absence of a better idea, it was a decent choice.

What does suck is that the SK and Mafia both were able to outmanuever JSexton.

[Kat]

So, I guess the moral of today's story is, kill the least suspicious folks?

[Hockey Monkey]

Shit. Shit. I want a button on my keyboard thay types "shit" over and over.

While I completely understand if you guys want to lynch me today, I am a beat cop. And I did preface my investigation of Fern Forest that I could be completely wrong. Then at the end asked you to look at the evidence and make a determination yourselves. The reason he was being investigated in the first place is he was almost lynched in the sted of Suburban Plankton. I should have known that everyone being in agreement on Autolycus was going to be a bad bad thing. I did investigate Lakai last night. The reading was town. 50/50 is not good enough for me for anymore readings.

I feel really bad about the way things played out, and the fact that I was a direct contributor. By the way guys, I'm a girl. So now you know I feel that much worse about it. :(

[Fretful Porpentine]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fretful Porpentine
...any investigation that reveals the investigatee as having a unique power role is far more likely to be false than true.

Can you explain your maths?
(Beat Cops get a 50% chance of correctly identifying their suspect, whether they have a unique power role or not.)
Yes, I can explain. Yesterday, there were 28 players left alive (I think -- anyway, the exact numbers don't matter since this is just an explanation for illustrative purposes). Pimaspinner decided to investigate one of them. There is a one in twenty-eight chance that the person pimaspinner investigated was actually the serial killer. Since a Beat Cop has a 50% chance of getting a correct read on a given investigation, pimaspinner actually had one chance in fifty-six of correctly identifying the Serial Killer.

An investigation where the cop is wrong has a one in seven chance of identifying the investigatee as the Serial Killer, since the result is random and all of the roles have an equal opportunity of coming up. Pimaspinner thus has one chance in fourteen of getting a WRONG read of Serial Killer (since half of the Beat Cop's investigations are wrong, and one-seventh of those will come up as Serial Killer).

Therefore, the odds of Pimaspinner's read on Fern Forest being correct were 4:1 against, even though Beat Cops are right half the time. (This is possible because if the investigation had resulted in a reading of Citizen, there would be a much higher than 50% probability that Pimaspinner was right -- a false reading has a one in seven chance of identifying the player as a Citizen, while a true reading has, for example, a 70% chance if 70% of the players are citizens.)

Clear as mud? (I think this is right, anyway -- if it turns out to be an illustration of why English majors shouldn't do math, I apologize.)

[Lakai]

I don't agree at all.

Autolycus posted almost exclusively Mafia-speak content-free posts.
He was defended on several occasions by what turned out to be known Mafia.
He posted illegally at night and edited illegally.
He didn't seem to understand the rules.
Clearly he was either a Townie playing for himself, or the Godfather trying to attract a Cop to investigate him and reveal a 'Townie'.
Finally his lynch defence was not convincing.
(Also you really wouldn't have wanted him to be one of the last Townies, would you?)

Pimaspinner claimed to be a Beat Cop and gave a result worth investigating.


You see, the only thing remotely suspicious about any of that was that he was defended by mafia members. Plus, with a detective dead, why would anyone try to attract an investigation by a beat cop. Attracting suspicion is not in the mafia's favor. You have to stop defending obviously faulty logic which leads to townsmen getting killed. Only mafia would do that.

I also would like to here answers from certain people on certain subjects. I won't post links for everything because I don't have enough time before I go to work to find them. However, if you want links later, I will find them for you.

Malacandra, why were you suspicious of hocow for half your career as a townsman.

Rysto, I suspect you'll tell us soon, but why do you suspect Storyteller as scum.

Cowgirl, about this:


+++

MadTheSwine

In rereading my notes I can't really convincingly argue that he is scum, just that he set off a number of minor suspicions. I'm happy to elaborate if anyone is interested. But I just can't forget about this (post 330 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406317&postcount=330))

Why the aggression? Just doesn't sit right.

I'd like to know why you are suspicious of MadtheSwine. You implicated two people who I think are town in that same post (me and Pygmy Rugger) I want your reasons for the third.

You also did not answer my defense of your post which can be found here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8456478&postcount=2494) .

I'm still wondering why MadtheSwine and StarvingbutStrong voted for JSexton on day 3 and why Storyteller voted for Pimaspinner on day 3. They were the only ones that ended the day voting for someone other than Suburban Plankon or Fern Forest.

[Lakai]

NAF1138, can we post the Beat Cop probability question in the GQ forum?

That will end the confusion right there.

[Rysto]

Rysto, I suspect you'll tell us soon, but why do you suspect Storyteller as scum.
Suspected. Not sure what to think anymore.

[ArizonaTeach]

Ok, so really, what's the point of being the beat cop...
Dammit. Well, we got screwed that night, that's for sure. The only thing that's in our favor now is that the mafia (quit laughing, you mafia) absolutely has to try to target the SK right now, so we may have a little breathing room tonight. Very little.

[glee]

Autolycus posted almost exclusively Mafia-speak content-free posts.
He was defended on several occasions by what turned out to be known Mafia.
He posted illegally at night and edited illegally.
He didn't seem to understand the rules.
Clearly he was either a Townie playing for himself, or the Godfather trying to attract a Cop to investigate him and reveal a 'Townie'.
Finally his lynch defence was not convincing.
(Also you really wouldn't have wanted him to be one of the last Townies, would you?)

[QUOTE=Lakai]You see, the only thing remotely suspicious about any of that was that he was defended by mafia members. Plus, with a detective dead, why would anyone try to attract an investigation by a beat cop. Attracting suspicion is not in the mafia's favor. You have to stop defending obviously faulty logic which leads to townsmen getting killed. Only mafia would do that.


I think your logic is faulty!

Firstly it is perfectly reasonable for the Godfather to want to be investigated by the Detective. The result will be 'Citizen'.
Autolycus began his Mafia-speak immediately the game started, and could easily have been the first person investigated. There wasn't exactly much information at that point.

Next, having started in that vein, it would look suspicious for Autolycus to change tack once the Detective was killed.

Even though Autolycus was a Town, I repeat my question. Would you want him to be one of the last Citizens?
His lack of knowledge of the game and his selfish approach could easily lead to him failing to lynch the last Mafia.

Finally there is no 'equivalent' of Autolycus left. Therefore whether my logic in his particular case was faulty or not, it won't affect future challenges.
Further to my logic, have a look at my pursuit of Suburban Plankton. I followed Blaster Master's lead and eventually there was a successful lynch. (Note that two other suspects wwere well in the lead at the time.)

Perhaps you would like to suggest how we find further Mafia.

[glee]

Yes, I can explain. Yesterday, there were 28 players left alive (I think -- anyway, the exact numbers don't matter since this is just an explanation for illustrative purposes). Pimaspinner decided to investigate one of them. There is a one in twenty-eight chance that the person pimaspinner investigated was actually the serial killer. Since a Beat Cop has a 50% chance of getting a correct read on a given investigation, pimaspinner actually had one chance in fifty-six of correctly identifying the Serial Killer.

An investigation where the cop is wrong has a one in seven chance of identifying the investigatee as the Serial Killer, since the result is random and all of the roles have an equal opportunity of coming up. Pimaspinner thus has one chance in fourteen of getting a WRONG read of Serial Killer (since half of the Beat Cop's investigations are wrong, and one-seventh of those will come up as Serial Killer).

Therefore, the odds of Pimaspinner's read on Fern Forest being correct were 4:1 against, even though Beat Cops are right half the time. (This is possible because if the investigation had resulted in a reading of Citizen, there would be a much higher than 50% probability that Pimaspinner was right -- a false reading has a one in seven chance of identifying the player as a Citizen, while a true reading has, for example, a 70% chance if 70% of the players are citizens.)

Clear as mud? (I think this is right, anyway -- if it turns out to be an illustration of why English majors shouldn't do math, I apologize.)

Well your argument is quite interesting! :)

And of course probability is always a tricky topic.

My first response is that PimaSpinner did not try to find the Serial Killer. If he was trying to do that, I think your maths has some basis. The chance that Pima both first selects a rare case and then finds precisely that is unlikely. (Unless Pima is very good at the game!)
(There's also not exactly a 1 in 28 chance if you accept that three Masons had been identified.)

But all we know is that once Pima selected a suspect, he would get some response. And that would be 50% to be right and, if wrong, equally likely to be one of about 9 choices.
It may seem strange that the probablilities alter if Pima decides beforehand who he wants to find, but I'm confident it's true!

[cowgirl]

Lakai:

Cowgirl, I'd like to know why you are suspicious of MadtheSwine.

Only because of this:

You trust Menocchio for what reason? Two more scum here folks.

Kill them when I am dead. referring to CaerieD and Menocchio. I thought MTS's response above was awfully aggressive towards what is now a known and a suspected townie. That still doesn't make sense to me.

I had further niggling suspicions but couldn't confirm them so I dropped them, but I would still like to know why he would say something so definitive in the very early days.

Re: your other post - I was satisfied with your reasoning. I am still suspicious of folks whose posts are more about theorizing than about finger-pointing, but I am going to be re-evaluating everything with the additional knowledge I have now, so I will take an extra close look.

Malacandra, I would also like an answer to this: Malacandra, why were you suspicious of hocow for half your career as a townsman?

[NAF1138]

NAF1138, can we post the Beat Cop probability question in the GQ forum?

That will end the confusion right there.
Sure, go for it. Nothing else though.

[sturmhauke]

[I]Fern Forest- Citizen
Blaster Master- Vigelante
&
JSexton- Doctor

are all dead.
Fuckity fuckity fuck. Sorry people.

I'll have to review everything and see what I can come up with. For now, here's yesterday's voting records.

Everyone voted for Autolycus in the end, and for most people that was their only vote. brewha, Pleonast, and Rysto unvoted temporarily in order to allow time for Auto to raise a defense. Menocchio first voted for JSexton, while Queuing first voted for Fern Forest.

I've uploaded my spreadsheet here. (http://home.comcast.net/~sturmhauke/mafia.xls) I'm not sure if that link works for anyone but me; let me know if there are any problems.

[Fretful Porpentine]

There's also not exactly a 1 in 28 chance if you accept that three Masons had been identified.
True. More like a 1 in 23 chance, actually, since I miscounted the number of remaining players anyway. But the general principle, I think, still stands, and I'm not convinced that it makes any difference whether pimaspinner sets out to find the SK. (I'm sure this will get answered in GQ by wiser heads than mine, though.)
I've uploaded my spreadsheet here. I'm not sure if that link works for anyone but me; let me know if there are any problems.
I can see it. Nice spreadsheet -- kinda Mondrian-esque with all the color coding :)

[brewha]

...

We keep killing off the prolific posters and they keep coming up Town. Meanwhile, our SK kept killing the low post-count players, and they kept coming up Mafia. I think that we've reached the point where we have to demand that people participate more, or we'll lynch them.

That makes sense to me even though I am on the low end of post #'s. I guess I'm just gonna have to come in here and babble to increase my posts. The problem for me is that after I catch up on the 200 posts a day, I don't have the time and energy to say what my make of the whole thing is.

If I post without content, I'll probably be lynched like Auto.

So far, my suspicions have all been wrong and I'm going to look like scum if I keep fingering town.

I really don't know what to do at this point. Our major canidates for scum have been proven otherwise.

I'm also not completely sure we should lynch Pima. A beat cop has a pretty good chance of getting the wrong reading.

[MonkeyMensch]

Well... felch.

My brother actually called me on the road to tell me the outcome of the night's victims and I can tell you it looks no better in photons than it did in sound waves.

I take back saying that reading is more enjoyable with facts. I think facts are teh suxxor.

[Queuing]

Well that sucked. We suffered a big loss in that last day and night.

I don't think we did much wrong though. So FF wasn't the SK, a beat cop said he was, and had a decent theory to back it up as well. I don't see much point in worrying about the math and probability of the correctness of the beat cops reading. It boils down to 50/50 folks. Regardless of what reading he gets, the chances are the same. The cop is either correct or incorrect. Really whether or not the reading is a power role is irrelevant. Its 50/50 right or wrong.

We all knew that. We all choose to believe the cop. I see no reason to stop this. Right now we have another confirmed townie in my mind, Lakai. Sure there is a chance that the reading was wrong, but for right now we must not worry about that.

The GF theory was a good one. It made sense, and things seemed to have fallen in place. We were wrong, and that sucks, but I make no apologies for being wrong.

The SK is now a danger to both factions, and I imagine that the scum will be targeting the SK as well.

I really have no idea whom to vote for at this moment, nor do I have time to read through this thread again. We should take as long as possible for this day as well.

I will not be posting again today, and probably not tomorrow or only 1 post tops. Just FYI.

[Malacandra]

Lakai:

Malacandra, I would also like an answer to this:
Malacandra, why were you suspicious of hocow for half your career as a townsman?



OK. I thought Aguecheek's response: "ho-ly cow" was a disguised shout-out as there was no need to hyphenate the word "holy". I'm now convinced that it wasn't a shout-out, that there's no particular reason to suppose that Aguecheek is our other beat cop, and that even if he were there is no reason to suppose that he would have picked up hocow correctly as a killer.

And now to post what I had ready three hours ago when my internet connection dropped out (thank you so much, BT Broadband).



Oh carp. Four pro-town players gone in one day. Well done all, especially pimaspinner. We’re scrod.

Now in a spirit of closing the stable door after the entire herd is nothing more than a settling cloud of dust on the horizon, here’s some mathematics. Suppose the Beat Cop has investigated someone and turned up role X. He can have done this either by finding someone who is role X and correctly identifying them; or by finding someone who is not, incorrectly identifying them, and randomly picking role X. Let there be:

p players in the game (other than the cop)
s instances of role X in the game
r distinct roles in the game

The probability that the Cop did indeed find a player who is role X is s/p. The probability that he then identifies that player’s role correctly is ½. So the probability of picking a role-X player and identifying him correctly is s/2p.

The probability that the Cop found someone who is not role X is (p-s)/p. The probability that he then identifies that player’s role incorrectly is ½. The probability that he then picks Role X out of all possible roles is 1/r. Multiplying these together the probability of picking a non-X player and identifying him as role X is (p-s)/2pr.

Multiplying through by 2pr we find that the ratio of correct to incorrect identifications as Role X is rs:(p-s). In the case of a unique role s=1 and so this simplifies to r:(p-1). In other words there will be r correct identifications to (p-1) incorrect ones (which is not good, as we know that r is appreciably less than p). In the case of a non-unique role there will be rs correct identifications to (p-s) incorrect ones – rather better, if still not good.

Meanwhile… Well, the scum are now looking nearly as likely as we are to want to off the SK, ‘cos they can’t win while the SK is still in the game. For what that’s worth.

[Malacandra]

Fretful Porpentine's analysis above is right. glee's is wrong. IRL, glee is a full-time teacher of board and RP games. I am astonished that his grasp of the math is no better... unless he doesn't want to help us. :dubious:

[storyteller0910]

All right, I'm at a loss. Where do we go from here? Lessee...


I'm still wondering why MadtheSwine and StarvingbutStrong voted for JSexton on day 3 and why Storyteller voted for Pimaspinner on day 3. They were the only ones that ended the day voting for someone other than Suburban Plankon or Fern Forest.

Well, in my case, I voted for pima because I was rather firmly convinced that she was scum (my reasoning may be found in a variety of posts Day 3). I was away from my computer for the period of time during which she made her role claim and the rush of votes for Fern Forest and Suburban Plankton happened, so I never had a chance to re-evaluate until the Day was over and the results already in.


We keep killing off the prolific posters and they keep coming up Town. Meanwhile, our SK kept killing the low post-count players, and they kept coming up Mafia. I think that we've reached the point where we have to demand that people participate more, or we'll lynch them.


I may or may not agree, depending upon your definition of the phrase "participate more." I know that I simply cannot match the participation level of Queuing or Blaster Master, and I'd say most people in this thread can't manage it, either. If we start imposing arbitrary post minimums for people, then people will start posting a lot of crap to avoid a lurker lynch, thus giving us more useless material to wade through on our way to the actual useful info.


I'm also not completely sure we should lynch Pima. A beat cop has a pretty good chance of getting the wrong reading.

Was lynching pima really on the table? I, for one, already managed to make myself look dumb accusing her of scumminess, so I'm officially against lynching her now. If she's scum posing as a Cop, every faux reading she gives us will be useful when we eventually catch her in a lie and off her; if she's not, lynching her is doing the Mob's work for them.


Stuff About Math


I don't really follow all of this, but tend to hold with Queuing's simplified version - whatever pima tells us might be right, and it might be wrong; we should avoid making decisions based solely on her findings in any case.

More generally: I think we need to start looking outside the established storylines, as it were, of this thread if we want to identify the Mafia. Does that make any sense? I don't think the Mafia is going to hide altogether, because that's suspicious in itself. I do think that they won't be more than tangentially involved in the more prominent plotlines. We found Suburban Plankton, it seems to me, by going outside of the ongoing discussion. Crap, I don't think that paragraph made any sense; if someone understands where I'm going with this, throw me a life preserver, OK?

Anyway, I'd like to suggest the following: we have plenty of time. We said after we bulldozed Enfant Terrible Day 1 that we weren't going to rush our days anymore, and then we (I include myself) went and rushed Day 4 through. I propose that we wait until the (real life) weekend is over to start pushing vote counts in earnest; this will keep those players who don't get to their computers much during the weekend from falling hopelessly behind, and let the rest of us re-read the thread and start reassessing. Thoughts?

[Fretful Porpentine]

OK, on examining sturmhauke's spreadsheet, I think I've identified three voting patterns that our confirmed Mafia have in common:

1) Mafia vote a lot less than townies. Of the 14 deceased players who got a chance to vote, confirmed Mafia cast an average of 1.45 votes on the first three nights; confirmed townies averaged 2.29 votes per night (not counting nights when they were dead, of course).

2) Mafia are unlikely to cast their final vote on any given day for a fellow Mafia member. The only possible exception is Suburban Plankton, who cast his final vote on Day 1 for glee, whose status remains undetermined -- but otherwise, all final votes are for confirmed townies. kivvik, however, voted and then unvoted for fellow Mafioso FlyingCow on Day 3.

3) Three out of four confirmed Mafia members voted and then unvoted Queuing on Day 2. What this means, I don't know, but I thought it was an interesting common thread.

For what it's worth, the two current players whose voting records match the patterns of known Mafia on all three points are brewha and StarvingButStrong.

[StarvingButStrong]

For what it's worth, the two current players whose voting records match the patterns of known Mafia on all three points are brewha and StarvingButStrong.


Oh, wonderful. And someone else wanted to know why I was one of only two to NOT vote for Suburban Plankton back on day (3?)

Dammit, I was one of the FIRST to vote for SP. I called one of his posts (the one where he wanted us to a) stop giving the Vig directions on who to kill and b) to kill the vig as soon as he next killed a townie) the scummiest thing I'd ever seen, and voted for him way early in the day. (If necessary, I'll go look for the post number later.) And I was convinced I was right about him, so I left my vote alone, all through that 'day.' And then, when I was doing my last check before leaving for work I saw there seemed to be no chance at all that SP would garner enough votes.

Trying to be a 'team' player, I unvoted SP, and cast my vote for JSexton, who I was slightly more suspicious of than whoever the other front runner was at that point.

Then I went to work. When I got back home and could check again, the entire game had blown up. Again. Claims were made, people unvoted and revoted, and suddenly SP had enough votes and was already dead. I think I bitched about it at the time: given how my game has been going, t hat will likely be the only time I catch a scum...and I didn't get to be in on the kill.

Anyway, that's why I didn't end up voting for SP -- I simply didn't get the chance to change back to him.


As for FP's three points and my matching them -- well, I never got a chance to vote Day 1. Again, all hell broke loose while I was at work, and Enfant was a cooling corpse by the next time I was on line.

(I'm sure you're getting tired of my blaming work, but that's what happens, I guess, when one person doesn't have access during business hours while everyone else seems to use exactly those hours to do the majority of their posting. I've already resolved not to join in this type of game again -- it's very frustrating for me, and I'm not contributing fully from the point of view of others.)

Where was I. Right. The reason I cast fewer votes than other people is that I spend a lot less time at this game than most players. Mostly I try to find someone I'm really suspicious of, and vote for them. If I'm around when significant disclosures are made later, I'll change my vote if there's good reason. Otherwise...

I have no idea what the Queuing vote pattern is about. Truthfully, I don't remember why I found the Queuing 'faction' more suspicious than the other 'faction' any more. Guess I should reread.

[StarvingButStrong]

In case anyone is interested enough to do research--

My post fingering Suburban Plankton was #1827 on page 37.

#2100 is where I reluctantly switched to JSexton

#2275 was my post on returning home to find SP was in fact the lynchee.

[Fretful Porpentine]

I have no idea what the Queuing vote pattern is about.
Well, that makes two of us -- I'm not at all sure that it does mean anything, and so far none of my attempts to analyze voting patterns and catch mafia seem to be working very well. (I was right about kivvik, but that seems to have been entirely an accident.)

[Lakai]

I think your logic is faulty!

Firstly it is perfectly reasonable for the Godfather to want to be investigated by the Detective. The result will be 'Citizen'.
Autolycus began his Mafia-speak immediately the game started, and could easily have been the first person investigated. There wasn't exactly much information at that point.

Next, having started in that vein, it would look suspicious for Autolycus to change tack once the Detective was killed.

So it was suspicious for Autolycus to talk like mafia and yet it would have been suspicious for him to stop talking like mafia? What isn't suspicious to you?

Even though Autolycus was a Town, I repeat my question. Would you want him to be one of the last Citizens?
His lack of knowledge of the game and his selfish approach could easily lead to him failing to lynch the last Mafia.

Hold on. So you would rather lynch annoying citizens than mafia?

Finally there is no 'equivalent' of Autolycus left. Therefore whether my logic in his particular case was faulty or not, it won't affect future challenges.
Further to my logic, have a look at my pursuit of Suburban Plankton. I followed Blaster Master's lead and eventually there was a successful lynch. (Note that two other suspects wwere well in the lead at the time.)


That is a little comforting, but getting Suburban Plankton lynched does not prove anything. You could have been voting for him because you thought he would not get enough votes. It's not unheard of for mafia to vote for mafia.


Perhaps you would like to suggest how we find further Mafia.

I can suggest how not to go about finding further Mafia. That is, by looking solely at vote records and then not believing anything the poster says afterwards.

[Menocchio]

I can't believe you're trying to defend Autolycus after the fact, here. The guy couldn't have looked more guilty if he actually came right out and said "I'm mafia". He wasn't interested in playing the game, and the only remaining explanations were that he was jerking the rest of his team around for his own amusement, or that he was a mobster, perhaps even the godfather, and was hiding in plain sight.

Frankly, I'm shocked that he lasted as long as he did. He should have been lynched on day 1, giving a tell as strong as he did. It's probably only because the more active posters got too wrapped up in accusing each other while the scum just sat back.

[glee]

So it was suspicious for Autolycus to talk like mafia and yet it would have been suspicious for him to stop talking like mafia? What isn't suspicious to you?


Please read what I posted. :rolleyes:

"Next, having started in that vein, it would look suspicious for Autolycus to change tack once the Detective was killed."

My first point is that Autolycus was trying to act suspiciously to get the Detective to investigate him early. The Detective would find a result of 'Town' and notify us of that.
Which part of this do you disagree with?

Once the Detective is killed, a Beat Cop has some chance of making a mistake and fingering Autolycus as Mafia. Therefore Autolycus needs to not draw further attention to himself. Suddenly changing his entire persona once the Detective was dead would indeed be suspicious. SO he has to stay 'in style'.
Which part of this do you disagree with?


Hold on. So you would rather lynch annoying citizens than mafia?


Please read what I posted. :rolleyes:

"Clearly he was either a Townie playing for himself, or the Godfather trying to attract a Cop to investigate him and reveal a 'Townie'."

I wanted to get the Godfather (don't you?) and felt there was evidence that Autolycus had a strategy (as per above), which would work if he was the Godfather. (There was other evidence, such as known Mafia supporting him.)

Even if he was Town, I still thought it was better to lynch him than a better Town poster:

"Would you want him to be one of the last Citizens?
His lack of knowledge of the game and his selfish approach could easily lead to him failing to lynch the last Mafia."

Which part of this do you disagree with?


That is a little comforting, but getting Suburban Plankton lynched does not prove anything. You could have been voting for him because you thought he would not get enough votes. It's not unheard of for mafia to vote for mafia.


Lynching a mafia 'doesn't prove anything'?
I not only votede for him, but gave reasons which ultimately convinced the majority.
What would satisfy you I was on the Town side?!


Perhaps you would like to suggest how we find further Mafia.



I can suggest how not to go about finding further Mafia. That is, by looking solely at vote records and then not believing anything the poster says afterwards.


And where have I done that?

What exactly have you contributed to the Town?
How do you propose to find Mafia?

[glee]

Fretful Porpentine's analysis above is right. glee's is wrong. IRL, glee is a full-time teacher of board and RP games. I am astonished that his grasp of the math is no better... unless he doesn't want to help us. :dubious:

Ho, ho. :)

Actually I started asking about Beat Cop % chances from post 267 onwards.
Where was your maths then?!

When Pimaspinner posted his suspicions, where was your maths then?

Finally you cast doubt on any Beat cop finding a single role - only after a Citizen has been lynched.
So the net effect of your analysis that a Citizen is dead and we don't trust some future Beat Cop identifications.

A lesser man than I would say you appear to be helping the Mafia side. :eek:
I have no evidence for that myself, but I wish Citizens would support those of us publishing analysis, rather than criticising.

[Santo Rugger]

I'd emend this slightly -- pimaspinner should report all of his or her results as they come in, but the town should think long and hard before acting on them. I say this because if pimaspinner really is the Beat Cop, and gets bumped off tomorrow night -- as is quite likely -- it would be nice for us to know what the result of last night's investigation was, and if pimaspinner is in fact Mafia, we'll probably be able to infer something useful if we know which wrong directions he or she tried to steer us in.

That said, I think there are two lessons to be learned from the last day's tragic events: 1) pimaspinner may be a cop, but that doesn't mean that his or her hunches and theories are any better than the rest of ours when not backed up by investigations; and 2) any investigation that reveals the investigatee as having a unique power role is far more likely to be false than true.

Yes, you basically took what I meant, and articulated it much better. Thanks.

[Kat]

OK. I thought Aguecheek's response: "ho-ly cow" was a disguised shout-out as there was no need to hyphenate the word "holy". I'm now convinced that it wasn't a shout-out, that there's no particular reason to suppose that Aguecheek is our other beat cop, and that even if he were there is no reason to suppose that he would have picked up hocow correctly as a killer.

:smack:

That's....really stupid, no offense. Let's say that you were right, and Aguecheek were a beat cop and was leaving a breadcrumb. What is the breadcrumb "ho-ly cow" meant to signify? That he investigated hocow and she's..what? Mafia, Citizen, Serial Killer, Guardian Angel? Why leave a breadcrumb that gives absolutely no clue as to the indicated person's role?

Not to mention that I did a whole bunch of pointless work this morning, going through 50+ pages of this thread scrutinizing hocow's posts based on the recollection that two people suspected her of being SK.

This whole thing is starting to remind me of MadTheSwine's pursuit of Winston Smith in the previous game.

[Lakai]

Good answer glee. I'm done arguing about Auto's lynching.

I am now suspicious of Malacandra and his lame pursuit of hocow.

Vote Malacandra just to get the ball rolling.

[Fretful Porpentine]

Hmm. On the one hand, Malacandra does have some of the same voting patterns as our known Mafia -- relatively few votes, no known final votes for Mafia (unless Queuing turns out to be scum). On the other hand, the "ho-ly cow" explanation is just so goofy it has to be true :smack: :D I mean, if you could make up any story in the world, would you really go for that one?

[Lakai]

If anyone is interested here is the GQ (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=416754) thread I started so we can get some good numbers on Beat Cop investigations.

There are few arguments on the specifics but the rough figures for a town of 22 people are:

If a person turns up as town the investigation is roughly 90% right
If a person turns up as mafia the investigation is about 70% correct
If a person turns up as the SK (or any other single role) the investigation is about 30% correct.

So I say that if we get Mafia we lynch, if we get SK we investigate again and if we get town we leave that person alone. :D

[Kat]

I mean, if you could make up any story in the world, would you really go for that one?

No, I wouldn't, but maybe that's why he went with it. :D

[Malacandra]

Good answer glee. I'm done arguing about Auto's lynching.

I am now suspicious of Malacandra and his lame pursuit of hocow.

Vote Malacandra just to get the ball rolling.

Oh good. We haven't lynched each other enough yet. :smack:

[Malacandra]

Wherever my mathematics has been, it is back. I should have been quicker to spot the mistakes earlier but at least at the outset I didn’t realize what a shite deal the Beat Cop is – the role that is, not the player. It turns out that the Cop is worse than useless at identifying unique roles, even those that he can identify (not the Miller, for a start). Any given “ping” for a unique role is more likely to be wrong than right, and even two different IDs – by the same Cop, or by both – won’t help. (The ID must have been right both times or wrong both times, and “wrong twice” is more likely than “right twice”.)

The one crumb of comfort the Cop has is that as the ratio of scum to town rises, the more likely a scum ID is to be correct. Given, say, seven roles in the game, the break-even point for the Cop is when one-eighth of the cast is scum. We can probably guess that the figures are currently favouring him more than that. :smack:

Now I don’t believe I was slower than the next man to conclude that the Beat Cop’s power is close to useless at picking anyone but vanilla mafia (or vanilla town), but anyone who at this stage is arguing against the plain facts – or whose best defence is to say “Well, anyone who criticises someone else’s efforts must be scummy!” – ought to be viewed with deep suspicion.

As to the whole hocow debacle – well, out on me for a sap, then, but on Day One it seemed as good a lead as any and if Aguecheek were a Beat Cop then it made sense to catch any flak myself rather than mention his name. Y’all gotta remember I’ve never played this game before, and I’ve been suffering severe information overload for some reason.

On preview: I agree with Lakai, with the one proviso that we can never assume that an ID of SK or GA is true, even on repeated investigation.

[Queuing]

I think all of this arguing about math is quite silly. It doesn't really matter people. It all boils down to 50/50. Regardless of whether or not a power role comes up. This is based on the assumption (yes I know) that what NAF does first is find out whether or not the beat cop got it right or not. Wouldn't that be how you do it? The beat cop investigates whomever, NAF flips a coin to find out if they were right or not. If right then the reading is correct. If wrong, then he probably goes to random.org or something, puts in all the other possible outcomes and whichever comes up, comes up.

I really think we are getting incredibly side-tracked by all this Math discussion and deciding whether or not the beat cop is right. Unless you can reliably say that X is whatever I think we have to assume the pimaspinner is right. So he was wrong about the SK. Big damn deal. The other deaths were because of analysis, not math.

This is a game of reading into what people say, not a game of math. The only way we can figure out whom is what is by reading their posts. The power roles are extra lucky things for us, but not what the game is really about.

That said I have no idea who is what now. I was convinced that Auto was the GF. At some point I suppose I will have to look at whom I think is suspicious and lay down a vote. Probably not today as at some point I have work to do, plus I believe I am coming down with something.

[Aguecheek]

↑

What he said, re: no idea who's who and I won't be reading much today, as I'm doing two people's work right now.

I hope to be able to have something this evening if I get home at a decent time.

Jeers to the Doc/Vig killers. Cheers to the...hm. Maybe next time.

[Malacandra]

Queuing: You misspelled "I don't understand the math". Assuming we can rely on pimaspinner's role-claim as a Beat Cop, we still can't rely on his identification of anyone bar a vanilla townie or vanilla scum. Unique roles will appear much more often as false positives than true. Only common roles have a worthwhile chance of being identified correctly.

...Which is probably just as well for pimaspinner or he would have some serious 'splainin' to do round about now.

[NAF1138]

Well it doesn't really seem all that necessary, but I did say I would try and post one every day, and I didn't post one yesterday at all so...

1- Malacandra (Lakai)

Thats it.

Hope y'all are enjoying re reading the thread (which I am assuming is the explination for why this game seems to have died over the weekend).

[brewha]

Yeah, So far I've made it through about the first 1500 posts. I still don't know who I can trust.

[Hockey Monkey]

I've been trying to see what info I can get from everyone's reactions to my investigation starting on page 48. I'm still very confused.

[sturmhauke]

I'm feeling rather brain-drained. I don't believe I've ever actively participated in any thread this long, much less one that requires so much checking and rechecking.

[Menocchio]

Honestly, I have no clue at this point. None.

Everyone who has made an impression on me is either dead or more or less confirmed town. As far as I'm concerned, it's day 1 again.

[Santo Rugger]

Honestly, I have no clue at this point. None.

Everyone who has made an impression on me is either dead or more or less confirmed town. As far as I'm concerned, it's day 1 again.

*sigh* It does feel alot like that, doesn't it? :(

[MonkeyMensch]

Well, I just got done reading the entire thread. I was waiting for the call on that demo job over at Ceciltown and had to sit by the phone, so I figured what else to I have to do with four hours?

There's actually some laughs to be had in the early going, and when I say laughs I mean the kind of laughs you get fifteen minutes after you stub your toe really hard and the tears are dried up. There's a fair number of now-fallen citizens with suspect lists consisting of mostly other soon to be fallen citizens. :(

At any rate, in #2355 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8453376&postcount=2355) brewha says something I found interesting. He points a mighty quick FOS at our now departed Doc on the basis that he lived through that night. I know JSexton's identity is known now firmly only in hindsight but a test of his medical prowess or at least further deliberation would have been a less rash path.

I have suspected brewha on the basis of quickie accusations before and am willing to do so again now.

Vote brewha.

[Pleonast]

Am I still alive? How'd that happen?

Can someone put up a list of who's still alive, plus the roles of those who've left us?

[Kat]

I am completely without ideas at this point. I'd have to go through the thread again to look for suspicious activity, and I don't have the energy at this point.

When does the day end?