Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[NAF1138]

just because it has changed so much since this morning:


2- hocow (StarvingButStrong, Pleonast)
2- Pygmy Rugger - (Queuing, brewha)
1- MonkeyMensch - (Lakai)
1- brewha - (Fretful Porpentine)

don't think I missed anyone.

Get your votes in people, only a little more than 24 hours to go!

[NAF1138]

Hocow - you need 2 posts
Lakai - you need 2 posts
Pleonast - you need 2 posts
Rysto - you need 1 post

[Kat]

At this point, I still believe that the SK has got to go. The only real hint we have for an SK identifier is that he or she will want to avoid attention from both the Town and the Mafia.

The three most "under the radar" players (on my radar anyway) are hocow. StarvingButStrong and Rysto*. Rysto I'm pretty sure is Town. StarvingButStrong is slightly higher on my possible-Town list, so I'll vote hocow.

Yeah, yeah, I know I said hocow had a point about Fretful Porpentine's Blaster Master-related conspiracy theory, but such an elaborate theory is more likely to attract attention, rather than less, it's just so out there. (Although, I'd still like to know what Fretful was smoking thinking, if she can.)

*And Pleonast, but he's mason.

[Fretful Porpentine]

Yeah, yeah, I know I said hocow had a point about Fretful Porpentine's Blaster Master-related conspiracy theory, but such an elaborate theory is more likely to attract attention, rather than less, it's just so out there. (Although, I'd still like to know what Fretful was smoking thinking, if she can.)
Well, as near as I can remember, I was thinking: a) there was no way the recent role claims could ALL be true; b) all the smoke and mirrors about whom the Vig could kill had resulted in the death of Winston Smith, a townie, and I was inclined to think Mafia had engineered it; c) one particular exchange between glee and Blaster Master kind of reminded me of that scene in [i]Richard III[/b] where Richard and Buckingham fix things up between them so Richard ends up with the crown while making a public show of refusing it.

a) and b) had some partial grain of truth to them, since one of the role-claimers (FCOD) really was lying, and kivvik did, in fact, nudge everyone toward Winston Smith during the debate. As for c), my only excuse is that I wrote large chunks of my MA thesis on that scene :)

I'm not sure why I thought the Vig wouldn't kill anybody who made a false Vig role claim at once.

[Lakai]

Voting for the person you're third most suspicious of? Seems like a little bit more of that "playing for yourself" strategy.

I don't know why, but this post strikes me as an opportunistic attack of brewha.

Storyteller was the first to raise suspicion of brewha's "playing for yourself" strategy and now Pygmy Rugger is bringing it up again with very weak reasoning to back it up. How do you get "playing for yourself" out of voting for the third most suspicious player? I see no connection, all I see is Pygmy Rugger trying to get a bandwagon going.

Unvote MonkeyMensch.

Vote for Pygmy Rugger

[MonkeyMensch]

I printed out Rysto's (thank you) spreadsheet of votes and hocow always ended up with a vote on a townie at end of day. That is until yesterday (game time) when with fifteen real life minutes to go she jumps on the Aguecheek bandwagon with this (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8520990&postcount=3398). It just struck me as a quickie rationale: "for many reasons already mentioned."

Hocow had also been sticking out from the scum side of my uncertainty cloud so I vote hocow.

[storyteller0910]

12 hours or so left, everyone. Get your posts in; we really can't afford a modkill, and especially not a mod massacre.

[Lakai]

Well it looks like hocow might die on her own. But Pleonast and Rysto should really post.

[hocow]

Well, it looks like I may be headed to the gallows today, but I'll throw in my vote for MonkeyMensch.

[brewha]

If I'm reading this right, I"m on the Pygmy Rugger wagon with Queuing and Lakai. I don't like it.

Unvote Pygmy Rugger

[storyteller0910]

Vote count at present:

4 - hocow - (StarvingButStrong, Pleonast, Kat, MonkeyMensch)
2 - Pygmy Rugger - (Queuing, Lakai)
1 - MonkeyMensch - (hocow)
1 - brewha - (Fretful Porpentine)

Haven't voted: brewha, storyteller0910 (me), Rysto, Pygmy Rugger

As for me, I am torn. After I made my last post, basically aiming suspicion at Pygmy (again) and MonkeyMensch, Pygmy responded. MonkeyMensch, by way of contrast, has not aswered my comments and has only poked in with a quickie vote for the player already leading in the vote. On the other hand, Pygmy hasn't voted at all. I need to think about this a few more minutes.

[Santo Rugger]

I haven't voted yet because I hadn't decided which of my top 3 to vote for when I left the office yesterday, and was out of town all evening. I most likely won't be on until right before the day ends.

There's probably four mafia left. I'm pretty sure that my top three are all scum (either mafia or SK). It doesn't matter which order they die.
<snip>
We can only lynch one at a time. As long as the lynchee is on my list, I don't care which order we go.

Fair enough. Now, I totally get where you're comming from. Now that I'm online, I want to cast my vote, but I'm pretty sure storyteller's going to call me out for being oportunistic if I vote hocow. However, I think brewha and Lakai are right. It doesn't matter which of the three people on my scum list die, as long as I think they're all scum. I'm torn between voting for hocow, brewha, or holding my vote until I get home. But, I think not voting is even more suspicious, and since brewha just unvoted me, I'm going to go for hocow.

[Santo Rugger]

I don't know why, but this post strikes me as an opportunistic attack of brewha.

Storyteller was the first to raise suspicion of brewha's "playing for yourself" strategy and now Pygmy Rugger is bringing it up again with very weak reasoning to back it up. <snip>

storyteller was also the first to bring up me being opportunistic in my attacks. Your reasoning to back it up seems pretty weak, too, especially considering you "don't know why". :dubious:

NAF, can you give Pleonast a break, since he's told us he doesn't want to post as much to avoid pointing the crowd in any direction, given his status?

And give Rysto and/or hocow at least until the "morning" to make their posts, if they don't come in "today"?

[Pleonast]

Don't worry, I'll post. :D

Players I don't trust, because of laying low: hocow and Rysto. Few votes, few posts. At this point in the game, it's a scum tell.

Players I don't trust, because of what they've said or voted: Queuing, Pygmy Rugger and Lakai. It wouldn't surprise me if more than one of those on my list was a Townie, but those are my suspicions.

I'll change my vote: unvote hocow, vote Rysto. Don't take this as an endorsement for hocow, I won't mind if they get lynched.

[NAF1138]

4- hocow - (StarvingButStrong, Kat, MonkeyMensch, Pygmy Rugger)
1- brewha - (Fretful Porpentine)
1- MonkeyMensch- (hocow)
2- Pygmy Rugger - (Queuing, Lakai)
1- Rysto - (Pleonast)

Pleonast, Rysto, Hocow. I need a couple of more posts from you.

12 1/2 hours to go.

[Rysto]

I printed out Rysto's (thank you) spreadsheet of votes and hocow always ended up with a vote on a townie at end of day.
:confused: I'm afraid that hasn't been update since part-way through Day 2. Google Docs does not play nicely with my Linux system. Firefox's Javascript interpreter under Linux is unbearably slow. Did you mean sturmhauke's spreadsheet?

Players I don't trust, because of laying low: hocow and Rysto. Few votes, few posts. At this point in the game, it's a scum tell.
Sorry. Earlier in this game, I was attending university and had plenty of spare time. For the summer, I'm working full-time, so I have a lot less time to keep up with this game. Plus, the NHL playoffs have started so that how I've been spending my evenings recently. I had planned on doing a bunch of analysis last night, but I ended up falling asleep at about 7:30 or so.

I don't have time to vote quite yet, but I've been leaning towards Pygmy Rugger. I will get some analysis in before the Night, and I promise not to start any last-minute bandwagons.

[Pleonast]

Don't worry, Rysto, my vote is intended to get you to vote and speak up. I want to avoid bandwagonning. I'll switch my vote to someone else once you vote. Of course, you're still on my suspicious list, so defend yourself. :)

I myself don't have as much time as I did earlier in the game. Fortunately, I was lucky enough to have a verifiable Town role, so I can get away with vague posts and accusations while I await my inevitable murder. :p

There, a third post, NAF! :D

[MonkeyMensch]

:confused: I'm afraid that hasn't been update since part-way through Day 2. Google Docs does not play nicely with my Linux system. Firefox's Javascript interpreter under Linux is unbearably slow. Did you mean sturmhauke's spreadsheet? ...
Yes, my miscredit. Thank you, sturmhauke. (It's the one with the pretty colors right?)

[brewha]

I don't have enought on howcow to jump on that bandwagon. Since Pleonast also agrees that Lakai looks scummy, I will once again

Vote Lakai


I'm leaving in a couple of hours and won't be back until Sun. I may not be able to check the board again until then.

[NAF1138]

There, a third post, NAF! :D

Thank you kindly

[Pleonast]

Time's almost up. People who haven't voted yet: you'll be prime suspects tomorrow.

[NAF1138]

Less than 4.5 hours to go.

4- hocow - (StarvingButStrong, Kat, MonkeyMensch, Pygmy Rugger)
2- Pygmy Rugger - (Queuing, Lakai)
1 -brewha - (Fretful Porpentine)
1- Rysto - (Pleonast)
1- Lakai - (brewha)
1- MonkeyMensch - (hocow)


Hocow, you still need 2 posts, but I am not sure that it matters all that much at this point. See what happens when you don't post.

[hocow]

I only need one more, actually. But I'll be dead in a few hours anyway. Again, I can't really post a defense other than saying I'm a townie.

[NAF1138]

I only need one more, actually. But I'll be dead in a few hours anyway. Again, I can't really post a defense other than saying I'm a townie.
Well in that case, congradulations on making it to the post threshold! You will not be modkilled tonight!

4 hours left

[Rysto]

I'm going to go ahead and vote for Pygmy Rugger. I agree with most of the analysis (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8533494&postcount=3494) storyteller has provided this Day. There's one other thing I'd like to add (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8525802&postcount=3456):

His last sentence is the most important. Of the four people he lists, Ague and cowgirl are dead. cowgirl was presumably killed by the Mafia. That makes me think that the SK killed sturm last night, because they didn't want him to continue pushing this line of thinking. brewha and Queuing should be looked at very closely, IMHO.
I honestly don't see how we can say with any confidence that cowgirl v2.0 was killed by the Mafia. There were a lot of people -- myself included -- who were very suspicious of her role-claim. I came into this Day ready to start a bandwagon against her, and I definitely think that there's a good possibility that the Mafia might have let her alone to see if the Town would kill her. If that's the case, the SK might have had the same suspicions many of us had, and killed her trying for Mafia. And, of course, it's possible that the SK believed her but killed her because he's turned against the Town. I wouldn't have any confidence predicting which of these is true, and I'm quite suspicious that Pygmy Rugger is speaking as if the first scenario is obviously the one that happened. Also, given that killing the SK benefits the Mafia as well as the Town, I find it far more likely that the Mafia will be among those who are pushing the Town to go after the SK.

[storyteller0910]

All right, I guess it's time to hop off the fence. I'm going to

vote Pygmy Rugger

with the understanding that MonkeyMensch is the first candidate for FoS-ing tomorrow AM in the morning.

[StarvingButStrong]

That makes it a tie, doesn't it?

Hmmm. Well, PR was on my short list, too, so it wouldn't bother me to see him take the lead.

Are there any votes left to be cast?

[Lakai]

If I'm reading this right, I"m on the Pygmy Rugger wagon with Queuing and Lakai. I don't like it.

Unvote Pygmy Rugger

Great.

It's a tie right now, don't you want to see Pygmy Rugger hang over hocow?

[Kat]

Great. Thanks, Lakai, now I have to scrub my brain out with soap. I hope you're happy.

[MonkeyMensch]

... I also took some time and read Queuing's analysis of MonkeyMensch, and was surprised to find that I quite agree with Queuing. It's by and large not what he's said - it's the fact that he's said very little. There's no there there. MonkeyMensch has kept a profile so low he can barely be seen. In his initial rebuttal to Queuing's accusatory analysis, he claimed he was starting to get reads on one or three players - where are they? Since then he has said almost literally nothing. His only contributions have been to cast doubt on Aguecheek (and vote for him), and that chiefly because Aguecheek had draw attention to Monkey by posting suspicion of him. His other contributions have been pre-emptive strikes against any reasoning linking him with Aguecheek, jokes, and general friendly posts.

This is a player who doesn't want to be noticed, folks. Not at all, not even a little bit.
I was reading the end of the thread where you were pointing out my lack of response and thinking , "huh?" I hadn't even noticed this questioning earlier. My apologies. Time and life press always.

I've tried to keep my posts few but with whatever solid info and observations I have at the time. I'm not sure where anyone else gets such solid reads on players but I have, at most, two or three players in suspicion. Right now, in addition to hocow, I mildly suspect Lakai and Starving. To be honest, I'd rather be watching Lakai take the steps. But since I have no-read on Pygmy Rugger I need to leave my vote on hocow and hope for the best. We're treading some seriously thin ice here, folks. And just for good luck, since it worked with Aguecheek, I say, "Please be scum."

If you want to FoS me I'm going to be around Sunday a.m. online and would be happy to chat. :)

[Fretful Porpentine]

OK. Since it is a tie and I don't want it to come down to a coin toss, I'm going to unvote brewha and vote hocow. If it's between a quiet poster and a vocal one, I'm inclined to think the quiet one is more likely to have something to hide.

[NAF1138]

ok so good news and bad news.

Bad news, I got called in to do an extra show at the theater I freelance at tonight and I will be working when the day ends.

Good news...I have my phone and will post the lynch results within a half hour of the night starting! (45 min btw)

Terrible news, typing in a post on my phone is hard... so you will be deprived of my delightful color comentary.

I know, I am sad too.

[NAF1138]

oh and hocow is in the lead with 5 votes

[Kat]

What good are the results without the color commentary?! I'll boycott!

Lynch NAF1138!

[Santo Rugger]

Lynch NAF1138!

That's what I've been saying since night before last! No wonder we can't find sucm, NAF has this shit rigged!

[NAF1138]

ok well since Kat will boycot without commetary... nope no square brackets on my phone...

Night falls on Doperville and the town is still divided...but due to her sudden lack of participation in town meetings they decide that hocow is the best person to lynch.
As the light fades from her eyes hocow has a revelation andspeaks the truth about herself...but the town is unable to hear her.

hocow - citizen

has been killed.

48 hours for night votes starting 15 minutes ago.

[Fretful Porpentine]

Oh, damn.

:smack: :smack: :smack: :smack: :smack:

We are so screwed. Sorry.

[MonkeyMensch]

Feh. Piffle. Shit.

[Santo Rugger]

WTF? Seriously!

[Kat]

Damnit! Sorry, hocow.

(Wow, I've never had a boycott work before. I have power!)

[StarvingButStrong]

Damn. Just damn. I think we just blew our last chance. :(


[non-game]

My computer has started making really, really awful sounds, so I'm taking it in to the shop today. Hopefully it just needs a new fan.... Anyway, I might not be able to post for a couple of days, but I'll be back as soon as possible. Let's hope this night takes the full time.

[/non-game]


Hocow, my condolences. I suspect the rest of us will be joining you soon.

[Queuing]

Sigh

RIP Hocow

[NAF1138]

Rysto and MonkeyMench were out having a late night stroll. Monkey said to Rysto, I have a neat trick I want to show you, close your eyes. Rysto being slightly gulible and very drunk closed his eyes. It was at this point that monkey mench pulled a scalpel out of his back pocket and slit a new smile into Rysto's neck.

As Rysto lay dieing, suffocating on his own blood, Monkey laughed and said..."see, I told you it was a neat trick!" and laughed menicingly. He rolled Rysto over and began to cut two diamond shaped pieced of flesh off Rysto's cooling flesh when a shot rang out.

MonkeyMench was shoot in the back of the head from point blank range.


Rysto - Citizen

&

Monkey Mench - Serial Killer

are both dead.

There are 72 hours left in the game day. The day ends at 11am on Monday Pacific time.

Good luck and try to stay alive.

[Rysto]

Damn, damn, damn. I just realized this morning that I wasn't likely to live the night. Good luck, Town. I think that you guys can figure this one out.

[Lakai]

Holy fuck.

Well played Monkey Mench.

Does anyone have a list of who is still alive?

[Santo Rugger]

Holy fuck.

Well played Monkey Mench.

Does anyone have a list of who is still alive?

My sentiments, exactly!

brewha
Fretful Porpentine
Kat
Lakai
Pleonast
Pygmy Rugger
Queuing
StarvingButStrong
Storyteller0910

[NAF1138]

GAA

72 hours makes it Tuesday that the day ends. Sorry bought that folks.

Oh and with 9 alive its just 5 to lynch.

[hocow]

Forgot to give my goodbye post.

They have pie in the other thread too!

Good luck, guys!

[StarvingButStrong]

Yowza. That was fast! And you even reveal who was killed by whom...that's different.


(Also fast: my local independent computer builder! I brought my computer to him -- even though he didn't build it -- explained the noise problem, and asked when he might be able to work on it. How about now, he said, and 15 minutes later I walked out with a new heatsink/fan installed. Price? $20 including parts and installation. And he didn't even talk to me like I am a computer idiot, which I are. Very nice guy.0


So, 9 left. Cannot be more than 4 mafia or they'd have won. So IF we never make a mistake and lynch a townie, we could still win...

Anyway, nothing really has changed for me -- Rysto and MonkeyMensch weren't near the top of my list. So....

Vote Pygmy Rugger.

[StarvingButStrong]

Whoops, that was cold. I should have said:

RIP Rysto.

BIH MonkeyMench

[hocow]

snip

[MonkeyMensch]

Ah, one more night and I could have pulled it off. Sigh. I might even have got Queuing framed as the SK. Now I guess I'll have to content myself with merely Doperville-skin spats and a cummerbund, instead of the full tuxedo I had planned.

Incredibly great playing witch'yall. See some of you soon.

[Pleonast]

Let's see, that likely makes 5 Townies and 4 Mafia. So, blind guessing is gives us almost even odds. :p

We've got to be very careful of fast lynches. One Townie voting for another Townie, plus four quick Mafia, means a dead Townie and game over.

[Santo Rugger]

<snip>
Anyway, nothing really has changed for me -- Rysto and MonkeyMensch weren't near the top of my list. So....

Vote Pygmy Rugger.

Can you kindly point me to where you laid out your suspicions of me? I don't recall you ever doing so.

[Kat]

Oh, my God! I am buying a round of drinks for the Mafia, really. I'll just set them up on the bar, turn my back, and you all can drink them.

Sorry to see you go, Rysto.

I don't know if I want to vote for Pygmy Rugger or Queuing. By this point, I have to say one of them is Mafia, but it's highly unlikely that both of them are.

Who's got links to their analysisisisisisisisis?

[StarvingButStrong]

Let's see, that likely makes 5 Townies and 4 Mafia. So, blind guessing is gives us almost even odds. :p



Oh, even without analysis/hunches/whatever, we have better odds than that.
Most of the townies only need to pick from six names. You are confirmed town. I think we can agree that Queuing HAS to be town, based on how determinedly Aguecheek tried to get him lynched. Plus each townie knows themselves to be a townie.

So, using myself as an example, I know the remaining Mafia are among these six:

brewha
Fretful Porpentine
Kat
Lakai
Pygmy Rugger
Storyteller0910


You and Queuing have a field of seven to consider, still 4 out of 7 is 57%

See? It's practically a snap now. ;)




Everyone probably got the equivalent of the following the first day of some college course:

Look to your left, look to your right. If you aren't scum, the other two probably are. :D

[Fretful Porpentine]

I still don't think Queuing can be scum, because I can't think of a good reason why Aguecheek would try to push the idea that one of his fellow Mafia members was the Serial Killer. I think it might be time to take another look at Lakai, though, whom I pretty much ignored last time around because of pimaspinner's report -- but she could be wrong, or he could even be the Godfather.

Not a definite FoS, but I want to take a look at his posts and see what he's said.

[Fretful Porpentine]

Another thought: brewha and Lakai have been FoSing and voting for each other, like, forever. Is it safe to conjecture that they are either a) on opposite sides; or b) both misguided townies? Or is this an elaborately staged fake feud (which they can easily afford to do if they're both Mafia, because neither of them has been in real danger of being lynched)?

Damn, this game makes my head hurt. Just about everything can be interpreted in multiple ways.

[Kat]

I could see it happening in one (and only one) situation. If the Mafia decided that Queuing was going to be a goner anyway, based on the level of mistrust against him, they may have set him up as a scapegoat, and decided that pushing for his lynching would reflect well on the pusher when Queuing was lynched. Thus, I wanna look back and see what the status was on Queuing's mistrust level at the time Aguecheek started pushing for him.

Let us know what you find out about Lakai, Fretful.

[Kat]

Okay, the first time I find Aguecheeck pushing for Queuing, it's at the end of Day Two. He votes for Queuing in post 1530 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8426634&postcount=1530), after Queuing's vote count has gone down to 5 (after hitting a high of 11, I think) and Gadarene's at 14 votes, and about 7 hours left until Lynch Time. (Someone let me know if there's a post prior to this in which Aguecheek speaks out against Queuing.)

At least 4 players announced their belief that Queuing was probably town after that vote by Aguecheek (and a couple before that vote as well), at the end of Day Two and beginning of Day Three.

Aguecheek goes after him again on Day Three in post 1702 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8431431&postcount=1702). A couple more people post pro-Queuing-as-Town sentiments. At this point, Aguecheek seems to drop the Queuing angle completely, posting about the people nesta had refused to vote for or FOSed.

He makes an insinuation in post 1945 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8440542&postcount=1945) about Queuing's Mafia estimate. At this point, Queuing is not in danger of being lynched any longer, but it could conceivably be a warning to not be so sure of the numbers.

In post 2760 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8473608&postcount=2760), StarvingButStrong asked where the Queuing suspicions went. This is about the same time Queuing got into the Math Discussion with Malacandra and Lakai.

Then, suddenly, in 2798 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8475331&postcount=2798), Aguecheek's jumping back onto the Queuing wagon. A couple of people vote for Queuing after this point. So, it's possible that Aguecheek geuinely thought that Queuing was SK, but it doesn't look like a "look-good-for-the-Townies" vote on an already-doomed Mafia. (And I didn't even get up to the fake role-claim before I reached this conclusion.)

Anyway, since I compiled all this info, here it is for you all to read, in case any of it is actually helpful, or you're really really bored while giving your "refresh" button a workout.

Oh, and vote Pygmy Rugger. Based on the whole Queuing vs Pygmy Rugger vibe I got Yesterday (game yesterday), which made me suspect, rereading it all after Nightfall, that one or the other is Mafia.

And yes, I did have to go through all of that effort, to get it straight in my head, because I can't even remember what happened and how yesterday (real life yesterday).

[Lakai]

Kat's post above leads me to believe that Queuing is in fact town. Mafia was pushing way too hard on him.

I believe Storyteller is town because he was the only one FOSing FCOD early on and he stuck to his suspicion. He also provides very good analysis.

Pleonast is a mason so he is kosher.

I am town, so by process of elimination that leaves:

brewha
Fretful Porpentine
Pygmy Rugger
StarvingButStrong
Kat

When I can eliminate one more person from this list, I will make my vote.

[StarvingButStrong]

Can you kindly point me to where you laid out your suspicions of me? I don't recall you ever doing so.


You recall correctly. :)

It really comes down to a gut feeling. We've been at this game for over a month, we've all read the posts and the analysis of posts -- basically I found myself generally nodding in agreement when others have posted why they found you suspicious, and not been very convinced by your responses to those posts.

But I realize leaving it at that would be terribly frustrating to you -- how can you rebut a gut feeling? So looking back over just the past few pages worth, here are some recent bits that make me lean towards you being Mafia:


I asked whether the town should be aiming at Mafia or the SK 'yesterday' -- you responded (3471) in part:


Well, assuming that we get a bead on the SK and Mafia, I'd say it'd be advantageous to take out the SK. My reasoning being, it looks like the SK has been going after town lately. Also, as has been said before, lynching has accountability whereas night kills do not. If the SK were gone, we'd have control over 1/2 of the deaths, instead of 1/3.


Now, it's possible that a townie could hold this opinion -- OTOH, absolutely a Mafia would prefer we target a SK. And with the Mafia getting so close to winning, they were probably nearly frantic about getting rid of the SK. Who would be more likely to express an opinion on this matter? A townie who doesn't see much difference between killing the SK and a Mafia, or a Mafia to whom it was a vital difference?

Not a big point, but it niggles.


Another bit: Queuing, post 3484


FWIW, I am not buying MM as town. I think Aguecheek may have thrown 1 mafia in his list. There were 3 unknowns that he claimed to have investigated. MM who came up town, Lakai who came up town and me who came up SK/Town. He, along with Brewha, went after me pretty damn hard. I think that at least suggests that I am at the very least not Mafia. He just sort of threw the Lakai investigation out there, and I don't recall any great leaping to the defense of MM as suggested by Fretful. I will leave my vote as it is, but I would like to see MM hang next.


I think he might have been right in the second sentence: why wouldn't Aguecheek at least try to give a little bit of cover to a Mafia? Even if Aguecheek was still alive when that particular Mafia got killed and revealed, well, beat cops are only 50% right, so ooopsie on that call.

We (Okay, I, but I think most would agree) now know that Queuing isn't Mafia. Monkeymensch for sure wasn't Mafia. So the only person left that could have been Mafia in that threesome is Lakai. Why I'm pointing that out will become clearer in a moment. (And, yes, Lakai is currently second on my scum list, right below Pygmy.)


In post 3496, PygmyRugger was explaining his voting record in response to Storyteller's analysis in 3494 (I think, though he didn't explicitly say so.) Anyway, Storyteller had pointed out two places where Pygmy Rugger's actions could be in response to guidance from Lakai.

This is what PygmyRugger had to say:


Concerning cowgirl, I pointed the FoS but didn't vote because I wanted to see what others thought, first. I have rather trusted Lakai for most of the game, so when he voted where I planned on voting, I went ahead and placed my vote.


The thing is, Lakai has been mentioned as distrusted many times by others -- even in the face of a 'Town' report by Pimaspinner. It looks to me like a general sentiment of "don't believe he's town, but we'll let him live while we go after other targets."

So why do YOU find him trustworthy?

And, FretfulPorpentine has just reminded us that Pimaspinner's read on Lakai as "town" could also be because he's the Godfather, which I had mostly forgotten about.

Is it out of reason that an 'ordinary' Mafia, especially a player new to the game, might tend to look to the Godfather for clues on what to do?


Now, I'll be the first to admit none of these points are damning by themselves, but added to the suspicions voiced by others, they make me happy to leave my vote on you.

[Fretful Porpentine]

I think he might have been right in the second sentence: why wouldn't Aguecheek at least try to give a little bit of cover to a Mafia? Even if Aguecheek was still alive when that particular Mafia got killed and revealed, well, beat cops are only 50% right, so ooopsie on that call.

We (Okay, I, but I think most would agree) now know that Queuing isn't Mafia. Monkeymensch for sure wasn't Mafia. So the only person left that could have been Mafia in that threesome is Lakai. Why I'm pointing that out will become clearer in a moment. (And, yes, Lakai is currently second on my scum list, right below Pygmy.)
Except, actually, Queuing is confused here. Aguecheek never claimed to have investigated Lakai; pimaspinner did.

[StarvingButStrong]

Except, actually, Queuing is confused here. Aguecheek never claimed to have investigated Lakai; pimaspinner did.


Really? Whoops. Okay, scratch that part of my post.


Anyway, the larger point stands: I find Lakai suspicious, and others have also posted that they find him suspicious. So why does Pygmy feel he's trustworthy, to the point of following his lead?

[Kat]

I still don't think Queuing can be scum, because I can't think of a good reason why Aguecheek would try to push the idea that one of his fellow Mafia members was the Serial Killer. I think it might be time to take another look at Lakai, though, whom I pretty much ignored last time around because of pimaspinner's report -- but she could be wrong, or he could even be the Godfather.

Not a definite FoS, but I want to take a look at his posts and see what he's said.

Did you have a chance to look over Lakai's posts yet, and what did you find?

[Fretful Porpentine]

Did you have a chance to look over Lakai's posts yet, and what did you find?
Yeah, I spent all morning doing that, with not much to show for it. My only conclusion is that if he is Mafia, he's fiendishly clever and good at covering his tracks.

Potentially suspicious stuff: A LOT of votes for townies on his track record, but by this point the same can probably be said of all of us. Posted a trust / distrust list on the first day (for what it's worth: distrusted Queuing, trusted storyteller, all other people on both lists now confirmed townies) but then voted for Pleonast on the second day because "he seemed too happy to post trust / distrust lists." Strongly pushed the idea of looking for networks on the second day; we know now that most of the "factions" were town versus town. Pushed to lynch Fern Forest on Day Three, saying there wasn't enough time to get a bandwagon going against Suburban Plankton. Said on Day Four that he was voting for Autolycus "because his death is inevitable" but also said he thought that Auto was town -- trying to cover all bases here? Rather quick on the trigger to respond to FoSing directed against him. (You can read his responses to prior accusations at 2494 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8456478#post8456478), 2629 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8460121#post8460121), and 3065 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8486480#post8486480).) ArizonaTeach accused him of being the Godfather and was promptly killed the next night, but probably by the SK.

Stuff that seems to indicate he's town: Correctly pointed out that FCoD's statement that he was willing to put his life on the line to prove his role claim was suspicious, since he wouldn't die if claim was correct. Strongly pushed for getting an accurate answer to the Beat Cop probability question (this may well have saved Queuing from a premature lynch; on the other hand, it also benefits Lakai himself by making people inclined to believe pimaspinner's ID of him as town). Insisted, correctly, that cowgirl should say nothing about whether she's used her GA powers, ever. Voted for Pygmy Rugger yesterday, when a vote for townie hocow would have been just as easy and unlikely to raise suspicion. In general, has done a LOT of FoSing and voting for both Pygmy Rugger and brewha, and I think at least ONE of these has got to be Mafia.

In short: Damned if I know, but we can't afford to make any mistakes at all right now, and I think there are better bets.

[Santo Rugger]

Really? Whoops. Okay, scratch that part of my post.


Anyway, the larger point stands: I find Lakai suspicious, and others have also posted that they find him suspicious. So why does Pygmy feel he's trustworthy, to the point of following his lead?

Please excuse me for not finding the specific posts I'm about to refer to. I tried, but it was a pain in the ass.

The reason I've had Lakai on my probable-town list for the last few "days" is because he defended me when everybody was FoSing me the first time, when I said a few players were going to be gone for the weekend when they hadn't. I still think it was a silly FoS, and at least Lakai thought so, also. That's the main reason for FoSs I've recieved this game, and frankly, I think it's silly.

Concerning cowgirl, I already explained when responding to storyteller that I didn't want to vote for her and just have my vote sitting in limbo. Once I got a little bit of support for my idea, I promply voted. It didn't matter if it was Lakai, or somebody else.

Finally, the post you quoted from me concerning the SK. It was in response to this:
<snip>
Suppose we think X is the SK, and Y is a mafia, and our suspicions are equally strong about both. Who would it be more advantageous to lynch today and who tomorrow?

I was answering your hypothetical, which assumed we knew on a given day who both the SK and a mafia member were. Notice my response said "assuming we have a bead on the SK", we should kill him. I defend this postion by noting that the SK must have been against the town, because almost all of his kills were of now-confirmed townies. This can be seen on nights where the two night kills were both power town roles.

So, I think that is an invalid point, also. How can you (SBS) ask a hypothetical question asking if we should kill the SK if we know who they are, knowing that he's probably not on our side, and then use that as grounds to suspect me? :dubious:

[Queuing]

Well dammit, I knew MM was something bad!

So we lynch another townie and the game is over. We basically have to be right each time. Well I still think pygmy rugger is scum. Not really sure why. My gut is also finding Kat suspicious. I think storyteller is town. We know pleonast is. Brewha I also think is town. Lakai did have a reading from the cop and came up town. I know I am town.

Town: me, pleonast, storyteller, brewha, lakai

So what the heck?

Lynch Pymgy Rugger

[brewha]

I haven't completely gone over all the posts yet. I'm just damn glad we got the SK. I knew MonkeyMensch couldn't be mafia based on his Sub Plankton voting. Never would have guessed him the SK though.

We definetly got our work cut out for us now though. We can't lynch anymore town and have a shot at winning this.

Well, I guess Queuing is not the SK and the likelyhood of him being scum is diminishing in my mind. I gotta take a look at today's posts before I cast a vote.

[StarvingButStrong]

I haven't completely gone over all the posts yet. I'm just damn glad we got the SK.


*We* got the SK? Seems to me the MAFIA got the SK.

Are you including yourself in the Mafia? :dubious:

[Fretful Porpentine]

I can't for the life of me make sense of the Pygmy Rugger / brewha / Lakai cluster. Within the last three game days:

brewha has voted for Lakai twice (day 6; final vote on day 8) and Pygmy Rugger once (day 8).

Lakai has voted for Pygmy Rugger twice (day 6; final vote on day 8) and brewha twice (final votes on days 6 and 7).

Pygmy Rugger has voted for neither, and claims to trust Lakai because Lakai defended him way back when (never mind those two lynch votes since then!)

Hell if I know whether we've got two very confused townies and one Mafia, or two or three Mafia doing an excellent job distancing themselves from each other -- but I think the Pygmy Rugger lynch looks too easy. Six of the nine living players have voted for him over the past two days, with nobody raising much opposition, and nobody except silly ol' me lifting a finger to swing the vote over to hocow during the two hours when they were tied. To me, this suggests the Mafia wants this lynch to go through.

[brewha]

Are you including yourself in the Mafia? :dubious:

No.

[brewha]

. I think we can agree that Queuing HAS to be town...




So, using myself as an example, I know the remaining Mafia are among these six:

brewha
Fretful Porpentine
Kat
Lakai
Pygmy Rugger
Storyteller0910





I certainly don't agree that Queuing HAS to be town. But, I'm willing to admit that he could be town at this point.

My list would be

Fretful Porpentine
Kat
Lakai
Pygmy Rugger
Storyteller0910
Queuing
StarvingButStrong

Basically everyone but myself and Pleonast. Any reason that there hasn't been much suspicion cast towards Fretful Propentine. I have absolutley no read on him - he seems to have stayed under my radar for this game.

[brewha]

Hello? Bueller?

We really need to get this hashed out quickly. I don't want another wait to the last minute lynching to happen. We need a calm decisive vote.

I'm torn. If I vote Pygmy Rugger, that means that I'm siding with Queuing (which I'm OK with) and Lakai (whom I'm still certian is mafia).

I could vote Lakai again, but that has done nothing in the past but waste my vote and puts me on the sideline hoping that the other people's votes are correct.

I could go out on a limb and vote Fretful Porpentine based on his lack of participation (as it seems in my mind - I could be off on this) and his vote for me yesterday, but I don't really have a good reason for it other than he seems less trustable than the others on the list.

Argh! There's so much pressure on today's vote!

[Pleonast]

Hmm, I'm not sure who to vote for. I'll probably change my mind (I definitely will if too many people jump on too quickly).

For now, I vote Kat, for being the third to vote for hocow.

[NAF1138]

Vote Count

3- Pygmy Rugger - (StarvingButStrong, Kat, Queuing)
1- Kat - (Pleonast)

And thats it.

[StarvingButStrong]

brewha
Fretful Porpentine
Pygmy Rugger
StarvingButStrong
Kat

When I can eliminate one more person from this list, I will make my vote.

I meant to say something about this yesterday: I'm sure you know you don't have to 'know' who ALL the mafia are at this point. You just need to figure out who you are MOST suspicious of at the moment.

So I have to say, I find your post to be a little suspicious, as in, it's a delaying tactice. "I'm not sticking my head out until I can see which way the wind is blowing."

[NAF1138]

Lakai, and Pleonast each need to post once

Queuing needs to post twice

Storyteller needs to post 3 times.

Post hi mom or count the posts you are making, I don't care if the posts have content, just get your posts in.

[Queuing]

I think it would be funny if I was modkilled for not posting enough

[brewha]

Here's a new list:

Lakai
Pygmy Rugger
Storyteller0910
Queuing

These are the people who are not me or Pleonast and did not vote for Aguecheek's lynching. Quite a happy coincidence that there are four on that list. To be fair, StoryTeller and Queuing did vote for and recant their votes. For all we know, there may only be two or three mafia left. I think that is is safe to say that Lakai and Pygmy Rugger are mafia. Storyteller got extremely defensive when I insinuated that he may be mafia. He has also been pretty anti me, so I believe that he is a definite canidate.

Queuing? I'm still in the air. I say we take out Pygmy Rugger and Lakai first. If there's mafia left, we take out Storyteller. If we still haven't won, we take out Queuing.

Vote Pygmy Rugger

[NAF1138]

I think it would be funny if I was modkilled for not posting enough


I know, I was thinking about giving you a pass since you have posted more than I have to this thread. But fair is fair. Gimme two more posts. :D

[brewha]

Oh, and before someone else on my list comes up with the logic that they know that they're not mafia (which is pretty much what I'm saying) so they should be taken off the list, it's too late.

I'm sure that 50% of that list is scum. Probably 75% and maybe 100%. If I were scum, I wouldn't have pointed out that these people didn't vote for Aguecheek. Anyone who comes in after I pointed this out is just trying to cover their own butts.

If the rest of the town can get on board with this plan, we can still win.

[NAF1138]

Pygmy just hit 4 votes, just one more to start the 12 hour clock.

[storyteller0910]

[GAME OFF]
Howdy, folks, and sorry for my late drop-in on the day. My wife decided that we would be making an outdoor patio this past weekend, which task I have never attempted before. Turns out it's hard, and I just didn't have a free moment. But I do have a new patio! Also, pre-emptive apologies for the fact that I will probably not be at my most active during this game Day. I have to take all day training on a new system here at work, so I'll be able to check in briefly at lunch and in the evening when I get home; I'll make my three posts by tomorrow's deadline, but I can't promise to be doing extensive back-reading or analysis during this period.
[GAME ON]

Fortunately, I am still comfortable with what I did yesterday, which was to vote Pygmy Rugger. Reasons remain as they were the last time I lined them up.

Other thoughts:

Other than Pleonast, I see no reason why anyone - myself included - should be outside of suspicion at this point. For me, this game breaks down as follows:

I think Pygmy Rugger is scum, or at least I have more reasons to think that than I have to think it of anyone else remaining.

I think Queuing is most likely not scum.

I have no real reads on Lakai, StarvingbutStrong, Kat, or Fretful Porpentine. This has to change, because it is exceedingly likely that at least one among them is a very well concealed bad guy.

Finally, there is brewha. I think brewha is an odd case. His suspicions, at least as he articulates them here, seem to blow with the wind. Yesterday, brewha found a convenient reason to remove his vote from Pygmy Rugger (he didn't want to be on a bandwagon with Lakai and Queuing.). Note please that hocow, a townie, was lynched by a margin of one vote; brewha's unvote (along with Fretful's (?) late vote), preserved Pygmy at hocow's expense. Now, note brewha's actions so far today. He has concluded once again that Pygmy Rugger is likely to be scum, only a very short time removed from unvoting Pygmy because Queuing and Lakai were voting for him. This all seems like inconsistent thinking to me: if Pygmy is indeed scum, as I believe and brewha claims to, then why change your vote for him based on who else is voting for him? Who cares if it's partly scum voting scum, as long as you kill scum?

Also, I'd like to suggest that he has repeatedly mischaracterized my own statements. Most recently, there was this:


Storyteller got extremely defensive when I insinuated that he may be mafia.


brewha, if you're reading, I'd like you to cite the post in which I became "extremely defensive" about anything. I am in fact fine with suspicion being directed at me, because I think at this point it is to our benefit to examine everyone (which was ultimately what I said to you the last time you went after me). And the last time you went after me, it was based on a characterization of my posts, which you said "reeked of scumminess" (a characterization you later had to retract for want of evidence). It seems like your approach is to make declarations that you can't support, then hope that one of them will stick.

What does all this mean? I don't know. It is entirely possible that brewha is just an overzealous townie. It is also possible that he's Mafia, confusing things by misrepresentation and tortured reasoning then quietly backing off his vote of probable scum in a move to get hocow lynched.

All right, back to Documentum training. I'll likely be back with another post or two later tonight.

[Pleonast]

Who hasn't voted yet:
Fretful Porpentine
Lakai
Pygmy Rugger
Storyteller0910

The deadline is tomorrow morning? I'd be fine with lynching this evening.

I'll switch my vote: unvote Kat, vote Lakai, for not voting yet. :)

For the record, since the Mafia would be insane to not kill me tonight, my lyst of suspicion (high to low):
Pygmy Rugger
Lakai
Queuing
brewha
Kat
Fretful Porpentine
StarvingButStrong
Storyteller0910
Pleonast

[storyteller0910]

Here's a new list:

Lakai
Pygmy Rugger
Storyteller0910
Queuing


Just one more question: so, yesterday, by your logic, the Mafia not only voted in a bloc, they voted in a bloc for one of their own? Because unless I missed something, three of the four people on that list voted for the fourth.

This is what I mean. Weird, inconsistent thinking.

[NAF1138]

Vote count

5- Pygmy Rugger - (StarvingButStrong, Kat, Queuing, brewha, Storyteller)
1- Lakai - (Pleonast)

The clock started at 9:03 am Pacific time, so there are 11 hours and 47 minutes left today if the clock isn't stopped.

Still need one post each from Queuing, Storyteller and Lakai.

[brewha]

There's a chink in the armor of my plan. If there is only three mafia left, would could lynch someone on my list that is town.

Queuing, since you recanted your vote for Aguecheek, I'm less inclined to trust you. But, you did vote for him before you recanted. You have said you're only reservation on voting for Lakai is that he was investigated and came up town. Well, if you are not mafia, there is only three mafia left. That means that he has a 33% chance of being the Godfather if the cop was right. Between the chance of the cop gettting the wrong read and the chance of him being the GF, I think that there is more than enough room for doubt. He has acted much more scummy than Pygmy Rugger IMHO. So, I want you to switch your vote to Lakai. If you do and he comes up mafia, I know I can trust you.

Pleonast, I see you voted for Kat since she had the third vote for howcow. Well, if she is town, she had no better idea than any other town where hocow affiliation lay. Since she did vote for Aguecheek, I think that show her to be trustable.

StarvingbutStrong, I've had a feeling you were town. I'm happy to trust you at this point. You are also dubious about Lakai. I say we take him out today.

My trust/distrust list.

Town: Myself, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, StarvingbutStrong,Pleonast

Mafia: Lakai, Pygmy Rugger, Storyteller

Unknown: Queuing.

I'm willing to believe that the split it either 6/3 or 5/4

The only reason I want to switch votes is that I don't entirely trust Queuing at this point. If he is voting Pygmy Rugger and is Mafia, than PR is town. I'd rather see Lakai, who I believe is either the Godfather or gave a wrong read to our cop, get lynched today.

unvote Pygmy Rugger
Vote Lakai

[Santo Rugger]

I think it's very peculiar that the only person that has cast a vote for somebody other than me is Pleonast. I think Fretful is right, this is a lynch that the Mafia wants to go through. They only have to kill 2 more townies during the day before we lose the game. Do you really want me to be one of them?

[brewha]

Just one more question: so, yesterday, by your logic, the Mafia not only voted in a bloc, they voted in a bloc for one of their own? Because unless I missed something, three of the four people on that list voted for the fourth.

This is what I mean. Weird, inconsistent thinking.


Unless, like I said, there is only 3 mafia left. In which case, it would be the 3 out of the 4. I don't see what is so weird about that logic.

[NAF1138]

New Count
4 - Pygmy Rugger - (StarvingButStrong, Kat, Queuing, Storyteller)

2- Lakai - (Pleonast, brewha)

Back to 23 hours remaining.

[storyteller0910]

...still waiting for our trainer to show up, so I'm going to make my third post, but I'm going to have to type fast. Please forgive typos.

Unless, like I said, there is only 3 mafia left. In which case, it would be the 3 out of the 4. I don't see what is so weird about that logic.

Because you continue to assume that the Mafia is voting in neat and tidy ways that will make identifying them easy. Those were the assumptions that led to the massive foulup way back on Day 2. Consider: you generated your list by looking at people who didn't vote for Aguecheek. So you apparently think that the three remaining Mafia, or three of the remaining four, abstained from voting for one of their own as a bloc (Aguecheek,), then turned around a voted for one of their own as block (Pygmy Rugger). Why on earth would they do this?

I think it much, much more likely that at least one Mafia will be found on the list of people who voted Pygmy, at least one will be found on the list of people who voted hocow, and at least one will be found on the list of people who voted for neither. They're going to spread themselves out if they have half a brain among them; continuing to suggest otherwise is either incredibly unwise or an attempt to distract attention from all the people outside the convenient little voting bloc you've posited.

And I note that you've again found a reason to withdraw your vote from Pygmy Rugger at a time when doing so has an impact on the game. Not probitive by any means, but interesting.

[brewha]

Because unless I missed something, three of the four people on that list voted for the fourth.


That really is brilliant. I honestly can't tell you off the top of my head who else voted for who I voted for yesterday.

If someone FOS'd me and three other people, I wouldn't think "hey, two out of the other three voted with me yesterday." Now, if I were mafia and knew the other two mafia, and knew that we had all voted for the same person, that event would stand out in my mind.

Pygmy Rugger has a point. It really does seem like the mafia wants him dead. This looks bad for my opinion of Queuing.

The good news is that we don't have to determine if Queuing is town or scum right now. We just need to take this one day at a time. Storyteller has just jumped to the top of my scum list. Right now, it looks like him, Lakai and Queuing are the ones that we should take out.

[Queuing]

I stand by my vote of Pygmy Rugger. I see no reason to change my vote to gain the trust of some person who seems to make less and less sense as the game goes on, and who votes seemingly randomly.

There now I won't be modkilled :)

[brewha]

Of course I post the previous post before reading Storyteller's. My logic, as well as my vote withdrawl makes sense if Pygmy Rugger is not mafia.

Yes, I believe that the mafia is voting together. I beleive there is only three of you left. There is not enough mafia left to play shadow games and still win.

When I first became suspicious of you, it was because you didn't vote for Suburan Plankton. Now, you didn't vote for Augecheek.

As far as making it obvious. The mafia has not. That explains why you voted for, then recanted your vote for Aguecheek.



On preview, I see that Queuing is sticking by his vote. Starvingbutstrong, Fretful Porpentine, and Kat; we need to band together as town. If you don't want to vote Lakai, at least explain why not.

Pygmy Rugger it would behoove you to vote Lakai as well.

[Santo Rugger]

<snip> Pygmy Rugger it would behoove you to vote Lakai as well.

Although I trusted Lakai a couple days ago, he has voted for me twice in the past two days, and hasn't laid down any real reasoning for doing so. I think you're right, I'm going to vote Lakai. I think he may be one of the scum gunning for me. If I die today or tonight, when I come up town, I urge you all to look very closely at the four current votes against me.

[Pleonast]

Unvote Lakai. Vote brewha, for very strange accusations. Note, that I still stand by my list of suspicion above.

As they say, vote early, vote often.

[brewha]

Pleonast, what is strange about my accusations?

Rysto, Kat, Fretful Porpentine, MonkeyMensch, StarvingbutStrong, and Howcow all voted for Agucheek. The mafia is coming down to their last few members. I highly doubt that mafia would vote for their own at this point so we can eliminate them. If I take myself out of the list because I know I'm not mafia and I take you out since you're a mason, that leaves:
Queuing
Storyteller
Pygmy Rugger
Lakai

Storyteller just pointed out that he, Queuing and Lakai were on the Pygmy Rugger bandwagon yesterday. The only reason I ever suspected Pygmy Rugger was due to accusations made by Queuing. It is all making perfect sense to me.

We are on the same side. We really can't have the town argueing at this point. If you want to vote for me, at least explain a few things. If I were mafia, why would I want to lynch the top two out of three on your list? If you trust your own suspicions, you can see we are on the same page.
Why are you suspicious of Pygmy Rugger? I know I was, but I'm not sure why. We can still lynch him later if he proves himself to be scum, but I really don't think he is.
Why would you vote for me when there are three people on your scum list higher than me and when we agree on two of them?


I'm not that worried about getting lynched with just one vote, but I see that we can win at this point. You don't trust Lakai. Starvingbutstrong, Pygmy Rugger and myself don't trust Lakai. Let's lynch him today. If he comes up town, I'll gladly turn in my resignation.

[Fretful Porpentine]

I'm unhappy with both of the two leading candidates right now: Pygmy Rugger because too many people seem to want him to get lynched too much, and Lakai because I don't think he's shown enough suspicious behavior to make me comfortable overriding pimaspinner's reading of town. I could change my mind, but I don't want to vote for either of them right now. I think that Queuing is probably town. I think at least one of StarvingbutStrong, storyteller0901, and Kat has to be Mafia, but I see no good way of deciding which are which. So I'm going to go ahead and vote brewha once again, since he seems to have cast an awful lot of votes for townies and no final votes for Mafia.

[brewha]

I'm unhappy with both of the two leading candidates right now: Pygmy Rugger because too many people seem to want him to get lynched too much, and Lakai because I don't think he's shown enough suspicious behavior to make me comfortable overriding pimaspinner's reading of town.

OK, pimaspinner read Lakai as town. By now you have to understand how unreliable a beat cop's reading is. Even if it is greater than 50%, there is still a chance that he is wrong. Combine that with the fact that we haven't found the Godfather yet and I think we can throw that reading right out. There's likely 3 mafia left. One of them has to be the GF. If it's Lakai, he would have come up town even if the detective had investigated him.





I think at least one of StarvingbutStrong, storyteller0901, and Kat has to be Mafia, but I see no good way of deciding which are which.

I see a good way. StarvingbutStrong and Kat voted for Aguecheek's lynching. Storyteller did not.

Fretful Porpentine, I believe you are town. But, you have put me in a bad situation. With your and Pleonast's votes, the mafia can swing in and finish me off easily. Please reconsider your vote. Realize that there is a better than average chance the either Lakai could be the GF or that Pimaspinner got a bad read. If you'd feel more comfortable, I'd be happy to lynch Storyteller. But, I'm sure Lakai is mafia.

[storyteller0910]

That really is brilliant. I honestly can't tell you off the top of my head who else voted for who I voted for yesterday.

If someone FOS'd me and three other people, I wouldn't think "hey, two out of the other three voted with me yesterday." Now, if I were mafia and knew the other two mafia, and knew that we had all voted for the same person, that event would stand out in my mind.


Are you serious here? You find it... suspicious... that I know who voted for whom yesterday? It, um, took me about twenty seconds to page back through the thread and see that Queuing, Lakai, and I all voted for Pygmy Rugger. This is suspicious? Why?

Why would anyone want to avoid looking at past vote records?

[Fretful Porpentine]

OK, pimaspinner read Lakai as town. By now you have to understand how unreliable a beat cop's reading is. Even if it is greater than 50%, there is still a chance that he is wrong. Combine that with the fact that we haven't found the Godfather yet and I think we can throw that reading right out. There's likely 3 mafia left. One of them has to be the GF. If it's Lakai, he would have come up town even if the detective had investigated him.
Point noted. I went through Lakai's posts with a fine-tooth comb at the beginning of the Day with precisely that thought in mind, though, and I didn't see anything convincing enough to make me want to swing the other way. He could be Mafia, for sure, but I don't want to place my bets that way right now, when we can't afford even one mistake.
But, you have put me in a bad situation. With your and Pleonast's votes, the mafia can swing in and finish me off easily. Please reconsider your vote.
I've noted that point as well, and I will be watching very closely to see what happens over the next few hours. There is a good chance that this will not be my final vote.

[brewha]

Kat's post above leads me to believe that Queuing is in fact town. Mafia was pushing way too hard on him.

I believe Storyteller is town because he was the only one FOSing FCOD early on and he stuck to his suspicion. He also provides very good analysis.

Pleonast is a mason so he is kosher.

I am town, so by process of elimination that leaves:

brewha
Fretful Porpentine
Pygmy Rugger
StarvingButStrong
Kat

When I can eliminate one more person from this list, I will make my vote.


I can't believe I missed this post before. Lakai is sure that he Queuing and Storyteller are town. I definetly believe that they are on the same side. This may seem like a blatant mafia move, but like I said they are getting down to the last few. Disguised under the format that Starvingbutstrong started, it doesn't look so obvious.

Look, Queuing Lakai and Storyteller are all on the same side. They are all mafia - it's the only thing that makes sense. It is shown in Lakai's quoted post and in yesterday's vote. They almost got Pygmy Rugger lynched yesterday as well. They are close to getting him lynched today.




Fretful Porpentine, I see you're keeping a level head about this. I understand how you probably distrust everyone at this point. I'm glad you're going to keep an eye on how the voting unfolds.

[storyteller0910]

I can't believe I missed this post before. Lakai is sure that he Queuing and Storyteller are town. I definetly believe that they are on the same side. This may seem like a blatant mafia move, but like I said they are getting down to the last few. Disguised under the format that Starvingbutstrong started, it doesn't look so obvious.

Look, Queuing, Lakai, and Storyteller are all on the same side. They are all mafia - it's the only thing that makes sense. It is shown in Lakai's quoted post and in yesterday's vote. They almost got Pygmy Rugger lynched yesterday as well. They are close to getting him lynched today.


This is the last time I'm going to post on this subject, because I don't think you're really listening to what anyone is saying to you, but for the record:

I completely disagree with your approach. As the endgame approaches, the Mafia will be trying to distance themselves from one another more than ever. Setting up in neat little blocs the way you seem to think has happened would be a tremendously foolish move with so little game remaining - creating a network that could be neatly and smoothly unwound with one lynch would offer them tremendous risk and absolutely no reward. Thinking that they would do this is going to allow someone to slip by unnoticed.

I remain firmly committed to the Pygmy Rugger vote. I outlined my reasons yesterday in pretty extensive detail, so I'm not going to do it again here. I will observe that we appear to be on the verge, again, of an eleventh hour vote change that leads from one candidate being firmly in the lead to a speedlynch of a different candidate. I am not interested in repeating that process.

Look, if there are four Mafia left, then a mis-lynch today will mean the end of the game. There is no margin for error. Just about everyone in town has expressed strong suspicions of Pygmy Rugger at one time or another (including brewha, who in the space of four hours has gone from voting Pygmy to creating a theory that assumes Pygmy is town); some of them are obviously Mafia. That does not mean that the Mafia want this lynch to go through; it may mean that they are trying to create plausible deniability when and if it does.

[brewha]

This is the last time I'm going to post on this subject, because I don't think you're really listening to what anyone is saying to you, but for the record:

I completely disagree with your approach. As the endgame approaches, the Mafia will be trying to distance themselves from one another more than ever. Setting up in neat little blocs the way you seem to think has happened would be a tremendously foolish move with so little game remaining - creating a network that could be neatly and smoothly unwound with one lynch would offer them tremendous risk and absolutely no reward. Thinking that they would do this is going to allow someone to slip by unnoticed.

I remain firmly committed to the Pygmy Rugger vote. I outlined my reasons yesterday in pretty extensive detail, so I'm not going to do it again here. I will observe that we appear to be on the verge, again, of an eleventh hour vote change that leads from one candidate being firmly in the lead to a speedlynch of a different candidate. I am not interested in repeating that process.

Look, if there are four Mafia left, then a mis-lynch today will mean the end of the game. There is no margin for error. Just about everyone in town has expressed strong suspicions of Pygmy Rugger at one time or another (including brewha, who in the space of four hours has gone from voting Pygmy to creating a theory that assumes Pygmy is town); some of them are obviously Mafia. That does not mean that the Mafia want this lynch to go through; it may mean that they are trying to create plausible deniability when and if it does.

I am listening. I see what you're saying. I could see how the mafia could orchestrate such a plan. I'm willing to consider that a possibility. Do you have a theory on who - other than - Pygmy Rugger is the remainaing mafia? I'm still quite certain that Lakai is one of the remaining mafia.

I'd like to see where the rest of the players stand on this. Last I recall, there seems to be 4 who haven't voted.

[NAF1138]

2- brewha - (Pleonast, Fretful Porpentine)
2- Lakai - (brewha, Pygmy Rugger)
4- Pygmy Rugger - (StarvingButStrong, Kat, Queuing, Storyteller)

[Pleonast]

Lakai still hasn't voted?

[Queuing]

I know I said I wouldn't do this, but brewha's constant vote changes and attempts to bandwagon people based on his thinking alone has yet again bothered me.

Brewha, for a complete list of storyteller's thinking see this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8545952&postcount=3584) . Geez man, stop, read the thread and think before you go on another one of your half-baked attempted bandwagons. In case you haven't noticed you haven't been very successful, and it could be said that your defense of MM and constant harping on me allowed him to escape the lynch.

Trust me, we all get it, we all understand that you think I am scum and that you think Lakai is scum. What we don't understand is your constant vote switching.

[Santo Rugger]

The way brewha is acting today is reminding me of the way Winston Smith went out. He knew he was town, he was under the gun, and he didn't handle it very well. I think [/B]brewha[B] is in the same situation.

[NAF1138]

Lakai still hasn't voted?


Just double checked, no he hasn't, and he still needs one post before the day ends.

[brewha]

I know I said I wouldn't do this, but brewha's constant vote changes and attempts to bandwagon people based on his thinking alone has yet again bothered me.

Brewha, for a complete list of storyteller's thinking see this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8545952&postcount=3584) . Geez man, stop, read the thread and think before you go on another one of your half-baked attempted bandwagons. In case you haven't noticed you haven't been very successful, and it could be said that your defense of MM and constant harping on me allowed him to escape the lynch.

Trust me, we all get it, we all understand that you think I am scum and that you think Lakai is scum. What we don't understand is your constant vote switching.


My voting and accusations are not based on my thinking alone. I have tried basing my suspicions on what others say and it has proved futile. I'm basing my accusations on what people have done. Aguecheek was mafia. You didn't vote for him. Storyteller did vote for him. Lakai didn't vote for him. True, Pygmy Rugger didn't vote for him either, but all three of you did vote for Pygmy Rugger. It sure does look like a mafia bandwagon to me.

I see it is much easier for you and Storyteller to just call me crazy. You say that I wildly flail about and haphazardly throw votes everywhere. I've got you guys pegged and since you can't come up with a defense, you just try to wreck my credibility. New flash - I got no credibility to wreck. I'm just hoping that the other townies will at least look into what I'm saying and make up their own minds.

FTR, I've had the same suspicions that last few days. I've firmly stuck with you and Lakai. I may have added to or subtracted from my list of suspects, but I've stuck with my main two.

I was so much better off when I was keeping my mouth shut.

[brewha]

Storyteller did vote for him.

That of course should be

Storyteller didn't vote for him.

[brewha]

What we don't understand is your constant vote switching.


I forgot to adress this point. I have changed my vote exactly once today. That is one (1) time. I don't see how this is "constant". Pleonast has switched votes more than me and we know he is town.

And what's this "we"? You got a mouse in your pocket? How do you know what everyone else is thinking? Have you been going to secret meetings down at the warehouse at night? OK, that's not fair and probably a little too sarcastic.

Serious question though. What do you care if I switched my vote to Lakai? Pygmy Rugger is still in the lead. Your bandwagon is still winning. Unless you and Lakai are both mafia, I don't see why you questioned my constant (one) vote change when you said you weren't going to. Seems a little fishy.

[Kat]

You know, for the past few days, I was leaning strongly towards brewha being town. I saw a decent argument for him being SK at one point, but nothing to really convince me that he was Mafia. The last page and a half has made me severly doubt my conclusions on this. And, no, this doesn't feel to me like Winston Smith's breakdown in Werewolf. This is just all over the place. And brewha wasn't really in danger until he started babbling nonsense.

This whole thing just makes no sense to me. You got anything coherent to say, brewha?

This makes absolutely no sense to me. Why is he putting himself in danger to

[Kat]

Hmm, I started to say something, then meant to change part of it and delete the other part. But since it's still there, I'll go ahead and post what was originally the end of it:
Why is he putting himself in danger to prevent the lynching of someone he's got on his Mafia list?

[brewha]

and it could be said that your defense of MM and constant harping on me allowed him to escape the lynch.



This is bugging me too much to let it go as well. Yes, that could be said. As a matter fact, if I didn't know any better, I would say that that was your attempt at saying it. It means nothing. It doesn't mean I'm mafia and it certainly doesn't mean that you are not.

My defense of MonkeyMensch was based on his voting for Suburban Plankton. I only said that he did not act like Mafia. I defended him because I was sure that he was not mafia. Ya know what? He wasn't.

You went after him becuase, you knew he wasn't mafia as well. You never pushed his lynch becuase you thought he was the SK. You just knew he wasn't mafia and that's why you pushed for his lynching.

[Santo Rugger]

<snip>Winston Smith's breakdown in Werewolf. <snip>

He broke down in the first game, too?

[Kat]

Yeah, he did. He false claimed Mason to avoid lynching.

[storyteller0910]

He broke down in the first game, too?

Oh, yes. It was epic.

[brewha]

Why is he putting himself in danger to prevent the lynching of someone he's got on his Mafia list?

I never said that Pygmy Rugger was on my mafia list. That was the list of people that did not vote for Aguecheek and was not Pleonast or myself. As storyteller pointed out, The other three on the list voted for Pygmy Rugger the previous day. This is either because they were all mafia trying to confuse the town or because the three were mafia and trying to get another townie lynched.

I'm not defending Pygmy Rugger. He very well could be mafia. I would just rather see Lakai get lynched because I am most sure of his scumness.

I guess I'm putting myself in danger by posting so much because it's Mon and I'm really trying to avoid doing any real work.

I apologize if I'm not being clear as to why I suspect who I do. I think it makes perfect sense. I would rather base my suspicions on what people have done and how they have voted than on what they have said.

[Kat]

On preview, I see that Queuing is sticking by his vote. Starvingbutstrong, Fretful Porpentine, and Kat; we need to band together as town. If you don't want to vote Lakai, at least explain why not.

Right now, I'm not switching my vote to Lakai because, basically, the person pushing the most for his lynching is coming across as batshit insane. (No offense. I just never get to use the phrase "batshit insane" as much as it deserves to be used.)

On preview:
I never said that Pygmy Rugger was on my mafia list. That was the list of people that did not vote for Aguecheek and was not Pleonast or myself.

You didn't? Who was it who posted in 3588 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8546042&postcount=3588) who said:
Town: Myself, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, StarvingbutStrong,Pleonast

Mafia: Lakai, Pygmy Rugger, Storyteller

Unknown: Queuing.

Wait--but you did add in the same post:
The only reason I want to switch votes is that I don't entirely trust Queuing at this point. If he is voting Pygmy Rugger and is Mafia, than PR is town. I'd rather see Lakai, who I believe is either the Godfather or gave a wrong read to our cop, get lynched today.

So, it's just more contradictory posting, in the same post this time. Want to get your story straight?

[Santo Rugger]

Yeah, he did. He false claimed Mason to avoid lynching.

The old fashioned double breakdown, huh? Haha. Well, I was talking about the way he acted in this game, right before he got lynched.

[Pleonast]

Unvote brewha; vote Lakai, again. Brewha seems more manic than scummy, at this point. And others are higher on my list of suspicion. So back to Lakai.

[Kat]

The old fashioned double breakdown, huh? Haha. Well, I was talking about the way he acted in this game, right before he got lynched.
I don't really remember Winston Smith's death in this game. Everything before Today (game day) is all a blurry haze. I think I blocked it out due to PTSD after the 10th or 11th reread.

[brewha]

OK, one coherent and concise post to explain my thoughts.

The day before last, we lynched Aguecheek. hocow's vote count is here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8519949&postcount=3358)

Then, Storyteller switches (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8520082&postcount=3366) votes to Pygmy Rugger.

Finally, Queuing switches (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8520618&postcount=3387) his vote to Pygmy Rugger as well.

As a bonus, here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8520994&postcount=3399) Storyteller defends Queuing even though he wasn't in trouble. The same way Queuing just confronted me about my Lakai vote although Lakai is not in any real trouble.


After that the day ends and Aguecheek is lynched. He turns out to be mafia.

The next day I vote for Lakai. Other people vote for howcow and he gets lynched.
Today, based on StarvingbutStrongs suggestion, I made a list of who I trusted. Here's the people that are left:
Brewha
Queuing
StarvingbutStrong
Kat
Fretful Porpentine
Storyteller
Pleonast
Lakai
Pygmy Rugger

I know I'm not mafai and I know that Pleonast is not mafia. The list then gets shortened to:

Queuing
StarvingbutStrong
Kat
Fretful Porpentine
Storyteller
Lakai
Pygmy Rugger

Then I look at the final Aguecheek vote and find that Fretful Porpentine, Kat, and StarvingbutStrong all voted for him. That cuts the list down to:


Queuing
Storyteller
Lakai
Pygmy Rugger

Since Queuing, Storyteller, and Lakai have all been trying to get Pygmy Rugger lynched, I concluded that they are in on it together. So that leaves:

Queuing
Storyteller
Lakai

I think these three are difinite scum, with Pygmy Rugger as an alternate if they were playing mind games with us. But I tend to doubt that since they would have wasted their votes two days in a row since Storyteller and Queuing both voted for Pymgy Rugger yesterday as well.

My original vote was for Pygmy Rugger since that's where the band wagon was already headed. After looking back and seeing The other three voting for him, I decided to change it to the next most likely candidate.

That's what I think. I'm done arguing. Take this info and do with it what you wish.

[Kat]

Okay, that makes much more sense. For the record, I disagree with you on Queuing, based on the info I posted previously about Aguecheek pushing to get Queuing lynched. I will take another look at Lakai's history, though, to see if there's anything that moves him higher on the Mafia List.

When does Today end again?

[Queuing]

I'm done arguing.

Thank god for small mercies.

FWIW, I am voting for pygmy rugger because I think that storyteller has laid a fairly good case against him. I don't see that anywhere else. I don't think brewha has laid out a very good case against lakai, or storyteller or myself. Its all based on us 3 voting for the same person, someone he himself voted for, apparently due to it being the bandwagon. This is what I meant by his vote changing. He always seems willing to jump on a bandwagon, and then get off of it or not, as the case may be. I don't understand this. Nor do I understand the big deal he is making out of the aguecheek votes. I changed my vote, as I explained it then, because I was uncomfortable voting for a potential cop.

I agree that there is little chance that the mafia are voting in blocs. They have played to smart for that, and are very close to winning this game.

Kat, winston smith went down screaming about elaborate conspiracy theories that involved a very well thought out and executed mafia plan. One that would be almost impossible to put together. He is somewhat famous for his flameouts in this game now. Provides a lot of fun really :).

[Santo Rugger]

I tend to agree with brewha's theory. Even though the final Mafia members wouldn't be voting in an identifiable pattern, it only takes two Mafia and three town to sway the vote. It's no coincidence story was the last to hop on the wagon. And Queuing was the third vote.

Fretful, SBS, what do you think of it?

[NAF1138]

When does Today end again?

18 hours 35 minutes from right now.

[storyteller0910]

I tend to agree with brewha's theory.


I am shocked... shocked... to hear this is the case, as his theory, cracked though it might be, exonerates you completely.


Even though the final Mafia members wouldn't be voting in an identifiable pattern, it only takes two Mafia and three town to sway the vote. It's no coincidence story was the last to hop on the wagon. And Queuing was the third vote.

Fretful, SBS, what do you think of it?

I was the last one on what wagon? On yours? I'll leave it to others to judge the truth of that contention.

[StarvingButStrong]

Okay, I just got home and ran for the computer -- who needs to eat dinner? If hubby gets too hungry, he can do the cooking.


Lots and lots of interesting posts over the last eight hours or so. Maybe because I'm reading them en masse, but I seem to see a definite pattern.

Here goes (I'm just going to use post numbers, all posts are on the past two pages)


Recent posts that bother me:

3596, by Brewha:



I'm just damn glad we got the SK.



As I pointed out before, it was THE MAFIA who got the SK. On the face of it, Brewha is identifying with the Mafia. Yes, it's a minor thing, but other minor things have turned out to be significant slips, too. Wasn't one of the dead Mafia caught because they referred to a night killing as a 'lynch'?

Brewha, post 3574

I'm torn. If I vote Pygmy Rugger, that means that I'm siding with Queuing (which I'm OK with) and Lakai (whom I'm still certian is mafia).



Actually, nobody except Queuing, Kat and I had voted for PR at that point. Lakai's only post being what looked to me like a 'see, here I am posting about voting' without actually voting.

Yeah, everyone makes mistakes, but with only three votes cast at that point....


Brewha, post 3588 -- an overall weird post, IMHO. Brewha not only unvotes PR, he launches a VERY determined campaign to get people to switch to Lakai.




Queuing, since you recanted your vote for Aguecheek, I'm less inclined to trust you. But, you did vote for him before you recanted. You have said you're only reservation on voting for Lakai is that he was investigated and came up town. Well, if you are not mafia, there is only three mafia left. That means that he has a 33% chance of being the Godfather if the cop was right. Between the chance of the cop gettting the wrong read and the chance of him being the GF, I think that there is more than enough room for doubt. He has acted much more scummy than Pygmy Rugger IMHO. So, I want you to switch your vote to Lakai. If you do and he comes up mafia, I know I can trust you.


So Brewha strokes Q by saying he's finding Q less scummy, claims this somehow means there are three instead of 4 mafia left (huh?), then pressures Q to vote for Lakai with what seems to be an implied promise that if Q does so, Brewha won't vote for Q in future? "I know I can trust you."


The Brewha does the same for me: more 'I trust you' strokes, a 'we're all townies together', ending with more 'so let's band together to kill Lakai.":

StarvingbutStrong, I've had a feeling you were town. I'm happy to trust you at this point. You are also dubious about Lakai. I say we take him out today.


Well, it's nice he thinks I'm town, and in fact I am, but I don't like feeling I'm being softsoaped to swing my vote.


Pygmy Rugger 3589


I think it's very peculiar that the only person that has cast a vote for somebody other than me is Pleonast. I think Fretful is right, this is a lynch that the Mafia wants to go through. They only have to kill 2 more townies during the day before we lose the game. Do you really want me to be one of them?


Say what??

Mostly we've been working off an assumption of there being 4 mafia left, meaning five town, and a single town kill this day means victory for the Mafia tonight. The only way there'd be a need to kill two townies during the day is if there were really only 3 mafia left:

3M/6T, minus a T lynch today = 3M/5T, the night kill brings it to 3M/4T, meaning still another day lynch of a townie is needed before the Mafia can win.

IOW, it looks very much like Pygmy Rugger was assuming that there are 3 Mafia alive now. Why would he think that, when the rest of us are thinking 4?

An obvious reason could be that, as Mafia, Pygmy KNOWS there are only three, and he slipped up and instead of adjusting to his thoughts to match what real citizens would think, he used the true number.

As far as I'm concerned, that looks like a big tell.

Then comes Brewha 3593


Pygmy Rugger has a point. It really does seem like the mafia wants him dead. This looks bad for my opinion of Queuing.


So much for Brewha having said he no longer thought Queuing was mafia not many posts ago.

Well, here's an interesting thought experiment. Suppose I'm right: Pygmy Rugger is Mafia, and he just slipped up and revealed there are only three Mafia left.

So what could Mafia do to try to save PR, if there's only two of them left besides Pygmy? They can't just vote as a block of three including PR for anyone else -- they might as well burst into a chorus of "We Three Thugs of Mafia Are." A 'block' of two will hardly be noticeable. The only hope would be to recruit some real townies to swell the count against a chosen townie....which sort of describes what Brewha was doing in 3574, doesn't it?

All of which means: I am more determined than ever to see Pygmy lynched, and today's a good day for it.

In addition, because of his desperate attempts to save Pygmy -- not just the above posts, there's more 'we townies must band together and kill Lakai' in 3595, 3598, then in 3600 Brewha throws in an offer to switch to Storyteller, instead, since he didn't seem to be finding many buyers for his Lakai campaign. -- Brewha has jumped into my number two slot. Hopefully he'll be getting to do the Gallow's Gavotte tomorrow.

And, as the chosen target of Brewha, I guess that means Lakai must be town.
(Hmmm. So who is number three? If this scenario turns out to be true.)

Then, in post 3609 Pygmy returns the favor a bit. (I believe this is called 'log rolling' -- I vouch for you, you vouch for me.) Pygmy tries to explain Brewha's strange posts by saying he's a townie decompensating a la Winston. But at that time Winston was under attack. Why should Brewha have been so stressed?

[Kat]

So Brewha strokes Q by saying he's finding Q less scummy, claims this somehow means there are three instead of 4 mafia left (huh?), then pressures Q to vote for Lakai with what seems to be an implied promise that if Q does so, Brewha won't vote for Q in future? "I know I can trust you."
<snip>
Mostly we've been working off an assumption of there being 4 mafia left, meaning five town, and a single town kill this day means victory for the Mafia tonight. The only way there'd be a need to kill two townies during the day is if there were really only 3 mafia left:
<snip>
IOW, it looks very much like Pygmy Rugger was assuming that there are 3 Mafia alive now. Why would he think that, when the rest of us are thinking 4?

An obvious reason could be that, as Mafia, Pygmy KNOWS there are only three, and he slipped up and instead of adjusting to his thoughts to match what real citizens would think, he used the true number.

As far as I'm concerned, that looks like a big tell.

Damn, you're right. I completely missed that numbers thing. Maybe brewha's not batshit insane, maybe he's just crazy like a fox.

[Queuing]

I tend to agree with brewha's theory. Even though the final Mafia members wouldn't be voting in an identifiable pattern, it only takes two Mafia and three town to sway the vote. It's no coincidence story was the last to hop on the wagon. And Queuing was the third vote.

Fretful, SBS, what do you think of it?

I may have been the 3rd vote this one time, but come on! Are you seriously trying to use that as proof of my scuminess? I could be wrong because I haven't read the last few pages, but I am pretty damn sure the first post from me of every day for the last few has been a blue one against you.

SBS, good analysis. That was a clear showing of just how flighty brewha has been. As well as interesting pick-ups on the potential for there only being 3 scum left. I also wonder why the call to SBS and Fretful from PR. How come no mention of Kat?

Why Pygmy Rugger did you ask for Fretful and SBS to out their 2 cents in regards to the theory of brewha and yours?

[Fretful Porpentine]

Why Pygmy Rugger did you ask for Fretful and SBS to out their 2 cents in regards to the theory of brewha and yours?
My sense is that they're BOTH trying to cozy up to as many townies as they can.

I agree with SBS's analysis (good catch on the numbers thing!) I'm keeping my vote on brewha for the moment, because I feel marginally surer about him, but will switch to Pygmy Rugger if it looks like he's in danger of getting unlynched.

[NAF1138]

I guess it is actually the 12 hour 17 minute warning, but that has less of a ring to it.

See y'all in the A.M.

[Santo Rugger]

I am shocked... shocked... to hear this is the case, as his theory, cracked though it might be, exonerates you completely.

I was the last one on what wagon? On yours? I'll leave it to others to judge the truth of that contention.

Yes, you were the last one, in chronological order, that voted for me.

<xnip>
Mostly we've been working off an assumption of there being 4 mafia left, meaning five town, and a single town kill this day means victory for the Mafia tonight. The only way there'd be a need to kill two townies during the day is if there were really only 3 mafia left<snip>


9players - 2dead townies - 4mafia = 3townies < 4mafia=end of game.

How is that flawed?

I may have been the 3rd vote this one time, but come on! Are you seriously trying to use that as proof of my scuminess? <snip>

Why Pygmy Rugger did you ask for Fretful and SBS to out their 2 cents in regards to the theory of brewha and yours?

No, that wasn't any type of proof of your scuminess. That was a very bad joke at somebody vs. somebody else (don't remember who) claiming that since they made the third vote towards somebody (drw), they must be scum. Guess it wasn't very funny.

I didn't ask for Kat's 2 cents because she had already given her opinion. I was asking for the opinions of those who hadn't explicitly expressed theirs yet, and she already had.

[Lakai]

I spent the last half hour trying to rationalize the voting patterns if Pygmy is mafia.

It does not seem to work. The mafia could easily switch their votes to me right now. Since Pleonast has voted for me, I have three votes, and one of them is town. If the mafia had three members they could force a tie right now. If they have two, then today's vote isn't too important. If they have four members they could end the day by voting for me. If I'm not mistaken, everyone has posted since Pleonast's last vote switch to me. Everyone had an opportunity to vote and tip over the votes for a townie. They didn't because there is a probably a townie on death row right now.

Pygmy can't be mafia. If he is, then the mafia are either brain dead or just toying with us.

This means that mafia voted for Pygmy. Out of his voters I am going to vote for StarvingButStrong.

She started the day off by voting for Pygmy (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8540977&postcount=3549) and saying that "nothing has changed for her". I thought that means she laid out her suspicions of him previously, but it appears that she never did. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8542775&postcount=3562)

Then she goes out and finds something so that Pygmy can have something to argue against. Those two posts made me think that SBS was simply riding the "FOS Pygmy" wave.

It's not the best reason to suspect someone, but I have given up long ago at being absolutely certain that someone is mafia. This combined with the fact that pygmy can only be mafia if the mafia feels like messing with the town instead of winning, has made me vote for SBS.

[Lakai]

I'm also beginning to think that brewha might be town. He has supported an unpopular position (lynching me) for way to long now. Why would mafia want to attract so much suspicion?

[Lakai]

Sorry for the triple post, but I realized I won't be able to post again until the deadline and thought that I should add a few more things.

First, brewha should change his vote. Not because it is for me, but because his theory sucks. Mafia will vote for other mafia. His whole thought process seems to be banking on the assumption that they won't. Out of his three top suspects, Storyteller voted for FCOD before he was outed by Hockey Monkey (pimaspinner) and Queuing voted for Suburban Plankton. To dismiss most of the players from suspicion simply because they voted for Augecheek is ludicrous.

Brewha, what makes you so sure that no mafia voted for Augecheek?

Second, Pleonast should stop with the random voting. If we have four scum among us then all it takes is one wrong move by a townie to lose the game for us. Since Pleonast is the only one I know is town, I will ask him to put more thought into his votes instead of just voting for people with little posts.

That's about it. I hope to Og that there aren't four mafia members out there.

[brewha]

Well, Lakai, I'll agree with you on one thing. If there are four mafia left the town has lost. Since there are votes on three different people, the mafia can change their votes and kill any one of the three that they choose.

It appears that they have chosen Pygmy Rugger at this point. But, he indeed could be mafia. They may just be waiting with their votes on him until there's one minute left then switch their votes to a townie. Or, he could be town and they have every intention on leaving their votes where they are.

The point is that we are screwed because the mafia is much better organized than we are.

[StarvingButStrong]

Yes, you were the last one, in chronological order, that voted for me.



9players - 2dead townies - 4mafia = 3townies < 4mafia=end of game.

How is that flawed?

[QUOTE]

Because that isn't what you said. I quoted it above, here it is again:

[QUOTE]

Quote:
I think it's very peculiar that the only person that has cast a vote for somebody other than me is Pleonast. I think Fretful is right, this is a lynch that the Mafia wants to go through. They only have to kill 2 more townies during the day before we lose the game. Do you really want me to be one of them?



See the difference?

They only have to kill 2 more townies DURING THE DAY before we lose the game.

Emphasis added by me. "During the day" means "lynching", since the Mafia kill at night.

And I don't at all believe you were thinking 'during the day' means a day/night cycle, since otherwise you'd have said 'today' or just add nothing at all, that is, ''kill 2 more townies before we lose the game."

You said there had to be specifically two more killed DURING THE DAY, which requires there to be fewer than 4 mafia as I said to begin with.

[Santo Rugger]

See the difference?

They only have to kill 2 more townies DURING THE DAY before we lose the game.

Emphasis added by me. "During the day" means "lynching", since the Mafia kill at night.

And I don't at all believe you were thinking 'during the day' means a day/night cycle, since otherwise you'd have said 'today' or just add nothing at all, that is, ''kill 2 more townies before we lose the game."

You said there had to be specifically two more killed DURING THE DAY, which requires there to be fewer than 4 mafia as I said to begin with.

But if there were 3 Mafia left, then:

9players - 2dead townies - 3mafia = 5townies > 3mafia=not end of game.

[StarvingButStrong]

Woo hoo, I guess. Got my first vote. I actually wouldn't mind all that much being out of the game -- I could some extra time elsewhere -- unfortunately, if there ARE 4 mafia just one more townie death lets them win, and I am townie.

So, I'll try to explain your points.

I spent the last half hour trying to rationalize the voting patterns if Pygmy is mafia.

It does not seem to work. The mafia could easily switch their votes to me right now. Since Pleonast has voted for me, I have three votes, and one of them is town. If the mafia had three members they could force a tie right now. If they have two, then today's vote isn't too important. If they have four members they could end the day by voting for me. If I'm not mistaken, everyone has posted since Pleonast's last vote switch to me. Everyone had an opportunity to vote and tip over the votes for a townie. They didn't because there is a probably a townie on death row right now.

Pygmy can't be mafia. If he is, then the mafia are either brain dead or just toying with us.


Or they simply haven't made their move yet. If they shifted their votes early, that would give time for the necessary town votes to notice and move elsewhere. Much safer to let it look like a last minute panic flurry instead of a deliberate plan.



She started the day off by voting for Pygmy (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8540977&postcount=3549) and saying that "nothing has changed for her". I thought that means she laid out her suspicions of him previously, but it appears that she never did. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8542775&postcount=3562)


"Nothing has changed for her" [me] only meant that nothing that had transpired had changed my suspicions of Pygmy. 'Yesterday' he was second on my suspect list, with Hocow gone he was first. No, I never bothered to type out my reasons before -- they were a combination of overall gut feel PLUS the points others had already posted about. I didn't see any value in a "here's my reasons" when they were a duplicate of what had already been posted and that PR had had chances to reply to before.


Then she goes out and finds something so that Pygmy can have something to argue against. Those two posts made me think that SBS was simply riding the "FOS Pygmy" wave.


If you'll note, they were reasons that had happened *recently*, that is, they HADN'T been posted about, and PR hadn't been given a chance to explain them.


It's not the best reason to suspect someone, but I have given up long ago at being absolutely certain that someone is mafia. This combined with the fact that pygmy can only be mafia if the mafia feels like messing with the town instead of winning, has made me vote for SBS.


Well, I'm not going to quibble about whether your reason is 'the best' or not. Heaven knows, I've cast many votes during the course of this game on flimsy evidence. As I said earlier, there's a reason the mafia could be holding off that isn't just 'messing with the town.'

I agree with Brewha's point (in a later post) that if the townies cast their votes for different people, then the mafia can kill anyone they want. The problem is, how can we come together on a single target? Clearly the mafia will do everything they can to disrupt that. So...do we roll dice to select who to kill, and everyone agree ahead of time that they WILL vote for who the dice say they should, or reveal themselves to be mafia?

That would give us a slightly better than even chance of picking a mafia, but I don't see anyway to organize it. Would you believe it if, for example, Fretful Porpentine said the dice came up, oh, Kat? Wouldn't you just worry that FP was Mafia and we'd handed the game to him?


Anyway. Off track, but I've no time to edit. I'll be back in about 9 hours to see what happened.

[StarvingButStrong]

But if there were 3 Mafia left, then:

9players - 2dead townies - 3mafia = 5townies > 3mafia=not end of game.


Geeze, I've no time, but I can't let that bit of sophistry stand:

Are we supposed to forget that the Mafia will be killing townies during the night? Hmmm?

At the moment, there are 6 townies and 3 mafia (per your slip.)

We lynch a town today --> 5 townies 3 mafia
The mafia (obviously) kill a townie tonight --> 4 townies 3 mafia
We lynch another townie tomorrow --> 3 townies 3 mafia
The mafia lynch another townie tomorrow night -- 2 townies 3 mafia -- Mafia win!

And, of course, there could be intervening days when there's one mafia lynched and 1 townie night killed. It won't change the result.

For a mafia win to require two more townies killed DURING THE DAY, then the current count must be 3 mafia.

And now I'm going to be late unless traffic is forgiving.

[brewha]

Pleonast, I need you to do me a small favor. Pick out the mafia. That's not asking too much is it? Seriously, if there are four mafia left, the only chance we have of winning is for all of the town to vote for the same person.

It has become painfully obvious that the town is not going to follow my lead. And, I guess I would be hesitant to follow anyone else's lead - except for Pleonast's.

Here's what I propose. Pleonast, have a look at your list of suspects. If you are happy with the order of scumminess post it as is. Or, feel free to change it based on what's happened since you origionally posted it. The important thing about your list is that you need to put it in order. Once it is done, do not change it no matter what anyone else says.


Repost the list. And we townfolk need to adhere to that list exclusively. I don't care what happens in the next two days, all the towns people need to vote for only who is next on Pleonast's list.

I do realize that this is a longshot. It puts a metric shit-ton of pressure on Pleonast to get the list correct. But, I fear it's the only chance we got.

[brewha]

That would give us a slightly better than even chance of picking a mafia, but I don't see anyway to organize it. Would you believe it if, for example, Fretful Porpentine said the dice came up, oh, Kat? Wouldn't you just worry that FP was Mafia and we'd handed the game to him?



Exactly what we need to do. But, the only way we know that we're getting an honest guess is to trust Pleonast. Since he is likely dead tonight, we will have to go strictly on his list.

[brewha]

Oh, and no pressure, but we got 2 hrs and 2 min to figure this out.

[Santo Rugger]

You're (SBS) right, 9players - 2dead townies - 3mafia = 5townies > 3mafia=not end of game, assumes no night kills, which is just silly (remind me not to post before I've had some coffee). Yesterday (real yesterday), I assumed brewha's theory was right, and we were going to get scum today. What I didn't think through all the way was that the number of townies decreases every day regardless. For some reason, I thought if we got one scum today, the Mafia would have to get two townies during the day to make up for it. But they only have to get one townie turing the day to make up for it. The other they can get at night.

If I were scum, do you really think I'd have lasted this long, if I were prone to making that kind of gaffe? Reminds me quite a bit of the very first FoS pointed at me by MadtheSwine in the begining of the game. I think Lakai may be on to something about you.

[brewha]

Well fuck. StarvingbutStrong is not going to check again for 9 hrs. Which means even if everyone is on board with this plan, it's not going to work unless:

A) SBS is mafia. Then his vote won't matter since the all of the town will vote together.

B) Pygmy Rugger is mafia and ends up getting lynched today.

C) there are only 3 mafia left. We can lynch town today and still win. Or we as a town still have the majority even if all the mafia and one town vote for someone else.

That's all we have to go on. Pleonast, are you down with this plan?

[Queuing]

Brewha you know pleonast already posted his list, right? Its right here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8545962#post8545962)

Do you see who is on top of that list? Just saying is all.

I agree with a lot of what lakai said, and its almost making me change my ming about Pygmy Rugger. However the very vocal and suspect thinking behind the defense from brewha makes me question Pygmy Rugger again.

I see no reason to rely soley on Pleonast. How does he know who is scum? He doesn't. All he can do is eliminate himself. Well guess what? I can eliminate him and me because I know I am town, so IMO that gives me a better chance of being right. Of course no one else knows I am town for sure, but crazy ass accusations from brewha notwithstanding, I don't think that many people think I am scum. Brewha seems to have picked another reason out of thin air (ok it was actually because I didn't vote for aguecheek while at the same time willfully ignoring the fact that aguecheek tried hard, very hard, to get me lynched) to think I am scum. Please look at the totality of evidence, not just pick and choose what evidence fits your preconceived notions. You can get into nasty wars that way you know!

No one has provided a logical, intelligent reason to go after anyone else but storyteller and SBS. They both want to go after Pygmy Rugger. Personally I have no idea about anyone with the following exceptions: Pleonast is town, brewha is to batshit crazy to be scum, and I am town. This leaves me with 6 choices. I have long thought storyteller is town. This leaves me with 5. Out of that 5 only PR has had a somewhat convincing case laid against him.

And that is where my vote lies.

On preview; brewha what you have is not a plan but rather a desperate plea to be able to remove all responsibility from everyone else. I will not follow such a plan. I will vote on a case by case basis when evidence is presented. Evidence, not crazy theories that ignore evidence that doesn't fit with said theory.

[Santo Rugger]

<snip>
No one has provided a logical, intelligent reason to go after anyone else but storyteller and SBS. They both want to go after Pygmy Rugger. Personally I have no idea about anyone with the following exceptions: Pleonast is town, brewha is to batshit crazy to be scum, and I am town. This leaves me with 6 choices. I have long thought storyteller is town. This leaves me with 5. Out of that 5 only PR has had a somewhat convincing case laid against him.
<snip>

Huh?

[Santo Rugger]

Oh, I get it, I thought you meant to go after storyteller and SBS, not them going after somebody else.

[Queuing]

Oh, I get it, I thought you meant to go after storyteller and SBS, not them going after somebody else.

Yes, this is what I meant, sorry for the confusion.

They are the only 2 that have presented any sort of theory about who may be scum that I can get behind. Unfortunately for you (and I concede, maybe the town, I currently have no idea about anyone but the 3 I listed) they presented it against you.

[Fretful Porpentine]

Here's what I propose. Pleonast, have a look at your list of suspects. If you are happy with the order of scumminess post it as is. Or, feel free to change it based on what's happened since you origionally posted it. The important thing about your list is that you need to put it in order. Once it is done, do not change it no matter what anyone else says.


Repost the list. And we townfolk need to adhere to that list exclusively. I don't care what happens in the next two days, all the towns people need to vote for only who is next on Pleonast's list.
This is a terrible plan. It might work if we get lucky, but it eliminates the one and only source of information we have that can help us determine where the surviving players' allegiances lie, which is discussion and observation of how people vote. Also, if Pleonast doesn't have time to post a new list, Pygmy Rugger gets lynched, which doesn't work to your advantage at all if you actually believe everything you've said so far. (On the other hand, if you want PR to get lynched AND want the credit of having made a show of defending him, this is a great plan ... for you.)

[Santo Rugger]

*raising fist* Those assholes!






:D

[NAF1138]

4- Pygmy Rugger - (StarvingButStrong, Kat, Queuing, Storyteller)
3- Lakai brewha - (Pygmy Rugger, Pleonast)
1- brewha - (Fretful Porpentine)
1-StarvingButStrong - (Lakai)


Last chance to change any votes.

[Santo Rugger]

<snip>
They are the only 2 that have presented any sort of theory about who may be scum that I can get behind. <snip>

I still wish you had a better reason than because story said so. :(

[Queuing]

I still wish you had a better reason than because story said so. :(

I do. Cause SBS said so too!

No, in all honesty, I have no fricking clue anymore. I have eliminated 3 people. This leaves me with 6. Assuming we have 4 (or maybe 3 scum) left I have a 1/2 to 1/3 chance of being right. I don't think all of the scum will vote for townies. I think one might vote for another scum. Its a team game, and if they can survive then their team wins. So this leads me to dismiss brewha's theory. This leaves lakai's left. For right now, I prefer the other 2. I suppose we will find out in 30 minutes.

[brewha]

Yes Queuing, I saw his earlier list. I do see that I'm in the number 4 slot. I also see that Pygmy Rugger is in the number one spot. I also see that Pleonast is voting for Lakai, not Pygmy Rugger which makes me think the order his list may have changed.

Here's the thing. I may be wrong. I may be influenced by mafia and don't realize it. The only way we have a chance to win (and by we I mean the town people I'm not including myself with anyone at this point in case SBS wants to pick my wording apart) is to vote together.

Even if every town member votes with Pleonast, and it is just a guess We have almost 50/50 odds. If half the town votes for one person, the other half votes for someone else and the mafia picks who we are going to lynch, we half 0% odds.

The only reason I see to dismiss this idea is if you are mafia. I thought we had another 1:15. It seems we have only 0:15.

I really hope there are only 3 mafia left.

[storyteller0910]

Even if every town member votes with Pleonast, and it is just a guess We have almost 50/50 odds. If half the town votes for one person, the other half votes for someone else and the mafia picks who we are going to lynch, we half 0% odds.

The only reason I see to dismiss this idea is if you are mafia. I thought we had another 1:15. It seems we have only 0:15.


This is a fairly terrible plan, by the way, and it's getting really exhausting having you throw out these nutty theories and then say, "clearly, the only way you could disagree with me is that you are Mafia." No, people disagree with your plan because it's a bad plan. And I say this as the person who was at the bottom of the most recent list.

If the entire town agreed to vote according to Pleonast's list, every day, no matter what, we would never get any more information than we have right now. Mafia could justify any vote at all, never have to explain themselves, never take a chance of slipping up. You'd see a whole mess of votes that read, "Voting So-and-So per Pleonast's list" and no one would bother with explaining. Analyzing people's reasons for voting, it seems to me, is as or more useful than analyzing for whom they vote.

Plus, if Pleonast has really misjudged even one person, we lose.

[NAF1138]

No last minute vote changes?

Alright then, on with the game...

The days just seemed to keep getting shorter as the number of people left in town dwindled. There were only 9 of them left, and the town knew that every lynch had to be a good one if they were going to survive. Pygmy Rugger was fingered early for his ability to escape the noose in previous days. The votes came in quickly, and it seemed that there would be yet another speed lynch, this time with Pygmy as the victim. But then doubt set in. New theories came forward and the town was divided. Would Pygmy be the lynch victim? Yes, and with less than half the town in favor of his lynch Pygmy Rugger is strung up by the neck.

Pygmy Rugger - mafia

is dead.

48 hours from right now is when the night votes are due.

Good job today town.

[Santo Rugger]

Buah haha ha!

Good game, you guys are too much fun!

Go scum! :D

[Queuing]

Good, we are still in it.

Raises a toast to the most-likely soon to be dead Pleonast.

Sure you want to walk home by yourself tonight? Maybe get brewha to start your car?

[storyteller0910]

Final - freakin' - ly!

[brewha]

Bah, I suck at this game. Nice work everyone.

[Lakai]

Damn I suck at this. :(

I'll be at the bar.

[NAF1138]

To no one's great surprise...Pleonast was found murdered in the streets moments before dawn. What was surprising was that, attached to his body, with what appeared to be large wooden spikes made of chopped up bowling pins, was an oversized note saying:

"THE MASONS SLEEP WITH THE FISHES.
NANER NANER NANER, YOU WILL NEVER CATCH US!
Love,
the Mafia"

written in Pleonasts own blood. This was surprising for a variety of reasons, it was a break from traditional form, (the mafia are typically more subtle), was totally audacious (were they not afraid of getting caught?), but mostly it was suprising because it was...completely ridiculous. Were the mafia losing their minds?

Strange things were afoot in Doperville.

Pleonast - Mason

Is dead


72 hours from right now puts the day ending at 12:45 pacific time on Friday.


Here are the remaining players

brewha
Fretful Porpentine
Kat
Lakai
Queuing
StarvingButStrong
Storyteller0910



With 7 alive, its only 4 to lynch.

Good luck, and try to stay alive!

[Queuing]

RIP Pleonast

So that was no surprise. However I wonder something? Did the scum move to quick this time?

SBS said she wouldn't be on for another 9 hours. This post was made at 10am my time, yet her last activity was 11:35am. No posts, just latest activity. Was this just a check to see who had died? NAF didn't post that until 1145am my time. This could explain the lack of posts. It was her lunch time, she checked in, the death had not been posted and she has yet to check back in. This doesn't really exonerate her of course, as she could have very easily gone and checked the scum boards, found who died and voted in their, but it could be a check in her favour.

Let us look at who is left:

brewha
Fretful Porpentine
Kat
Lakai
Queuing
StarvingButStrong
Storyteller0910

Going by what I think and what I know (that I am town), my process of elimination is such:


brewha - TOWN (either brilliant or crazy)
Fretful Porpentine
Kat
Lakai - Had a reading from a known cop, came up town, yes could be GF, or it could have been wrong
Queuing - TOWN
StarvingButStrong - TOWN (thoughtful analysis re: PR, helped get him lynched, the whole wacky time theory thing)


Since there is more then one scum left I am quite comfortable voting for either Fretful Porpentine or Kat. If I had to choose I go with Kat. No votes, just FOS!
Storyteller0910 - TOWN (has pushed alone for a while for 2 lynches, both scum, good enough for me)

[storyteller0910]

Well, I feel pretty good about the Pygmy Rugger lynch, but this is tempered by the fact that I couldn't possibly have less idea where to go from here.

If Pygmy's recent posts are reflective of the truth, then there are only two Mafia left. That means, I think, that whatever happens, there are a maximum of three game Days left, and we have to make a correct lynch two times out of three. We have a tiny, tiny margin for error, but we're down to it now.

This is going to be a long Day, I think.

[Queuing]

4- Pygmy Rugger - (StarvingButStrong, Kat, Queuing, Storyteller)
3- Lakai - (brewha, Pygmy Rugger, Pleonast)
1- brewha - (Fretful Porpentine)
1-StarvingButStrong - (Lakai)

So this was the final vote count? Hmm. Looking at this it would seem odd that Kat wouldn't have switched her vote. All she would have had to do is switch to Lakai, and Lakai would get lynched. Or any of the ones who voted for PR. So does that mean all 4 who voted for PR are more likely town? Kat voted early for PR, and left it there the whole time. So geez, I don't know. Does it mean Lakai is scum too and Kat saw no benefit in switching to him? Or does it mean, bar none, that storyteller is freaking brilliant and has been the GF the whole time? Not just of the Mafia but the whole damn game? Pushed for a scum lynch only when safe, knowing his FOS of FCOD wouldn't lead anywhere at that time, but potentially would give him enormous town cred later? If that last part is true, sir you truly are a master.

I started reading from page 72, and my god is brewha just everywhere. Its hard to even decipher it is so much all over the place. Also once PR reached the lynch countdown brewha immediately unvoted him and went for the only other person who had a vote on him. I really have no idea what to think.

Storyteller, o wise one, any chance you could read over the last few pages (I started from when the SK was killed), and tell us what you think?

My gut is no saying its the four who voted for PR who are town. Stupid gut won't make up its mind.

[brewha]

Also once PR reached the lynch countdown brewha immediately unvoted him



That's not technically true, whether it looks like that or not. I was composing the post in which I unvoted Pygmy Rugger when the fifth person voted for him. It was only after I submitted my post that I saw that he was up to five votes. Not that it makes a difference, I just wanted to state that I unvoted him for my own reasons, not because the vote countdown had started.

I think Lakai is still a safe bet to lynch. He was on my list of 4 from yesterday and second in line in Pleonast's list right under Pygmy Rugger. Unfortunatly, I have no idea who to lynch after him.

I tend to now beleive that PR may have slipped up and revealed that there are only two mafia left now. Which is great, we got three chances to get two mafia.

Barring better evidence:

Vote Lakai

[storyteller0910]

Does anyone mind if I stop boldfacing everyone's names? It's getting frustrating.

4- Pygmy Rugger - (StarvingButStrong, Kat, Queuing, Storyteller)
3- Lakai - (brewha, Pygmy Rugger, Pleonast)
1- brewha - (Fretful Porpentine)
1-StarvingButStrong - (Lakai)

So this was the final vote count? Hmm. Looking at this it would seem odd that Kat wouldn't have switched her vote. All she would have had to do is switch to Lakai, and Lakai would get lynched. Or any of the ones who voted for PR. So does that mean all 4 who voted for PR are more likely town?


Eh. I think it could go either way. Switching from PR to Lakai at the day's end would have been a very dangerous Mafia move; it would have gotten Lakai lynched, yes, but it also would have placed a neat flashing sign over the head of the switcher that said "I am Mafia, Ask Me How."

...or it would have if Lakai was actually town. If Lakai turns out to be a baddie, which I think is not likely but possible, then switching from PR to Lakai would have netted no benefit for the Mafia in question.

I have very little right now. I don't share Queuing's seeming comfort with brewha. I don't know what brewha's deal is, actually, but I'd like to do a bit of reading on it and see what I can see.

I do think Queuing is town.

The rest of the town is in a big muddy mass in my head - Lakai, SbS, Kat, and Fretful are basically all a mystery to me. I think it's dead sure and certain that at least one, and possibly two, of that group is Mafia. I'm also totally sure that I have no idea which, nor any idea how to do the separating. If anybody has suggestions, I am all ears.

[brewha]

4- Pygmy Rugger - (StarvingButStrong, Kat, Queuing, Storyteller)
3- Lakai - (brewha, Pygmy Rugger, Pleonast)
1- brewha - (Fretful Porpentine)
1-StarvingButStrong - (Lakai)

So this was the final vote count? Hmm. Looking at this it would seem odd that Kat wouldn't have switched her vote.


This is something we really need to look into. A mafia member should not have gotten lynched yesterday. Why did the Pygmy Rugger lynch go through? For this analysis I'm gonna assume that there were three mafia left at this vote.

I was running through possible reasons that the mafia lynch could have possibly gone through and came to this stunning realization:

Fretful Porpentine and Lakai are the final two mafia. It makes sense. Even if Pymgy Rugger would have voted for me or StarvingbutStrong and Lakai and FP were to join him, that would still only be three votes and Pygmy Rugger would still have four.

If Lakai were not mafia, the the remaining two members would have joined his vote and gotten him lynched.

I gotta go back and see if Fretful Porpentine has any concrete evidence that supports his towniness.

Please tell me I'm not going crazy again today!

[Kat]

Okay, here's what I think of people right now:
brewha - either barking mad Townie or very clever Mafia (or vice versa)
Fretful Porpentine - the strongest evidence I have for Fretful to be Town is the insane Blaster Master conspiracy theory; if she was Mafia, there was just too high a risk that the scheme would backfire on her
Kat - I'm pretty sure she's Town :)
Lakai - I'm torn on this one. If pimaspinner (or whatever her name is now) hadn't named him as Town, he'd be on my possible Mafia list.
Queuing - I've already explained why I think he's Town
StarvingButStrong - Town, based on the Pygmy Rugger vote, if nothing else
Storyteller0910 - too consistently helpful to be Mafia, especially in lynching Pygmy Rugger

My gut is urging me to vote brewha based on his antics Yesterday. Queuing, why are you so sure he's Town?

[StarvingButStrong]

Pygmy Rugger - mafia

is dead.




Yes! Yes! ::whew:: I would have felt so guilty if Pygmy had turned out to be town. That would almost certainly have been the nail in the town's chances, and since I'd pushed so hard for that lynch, it wouldn't have been unreasonable for you all to lynch *me* tomorrow -- and that would have been the second townie lynch, game over.

But I was right, so...::happy dance, happy dance::

[StarvingButStrong]

Morning already?? It was just dusk....

RIP Pleonast

Ditto. Enjoy the nachos!


SBS said she wouldn't be on for another 9 hours. This post was made at 10am my time, yet her last activity was 11:35am. No posts, just latest activity. Was this just a check to see who had died? NAF didn't post that until 1145am my time.

Are you checking up on me? :D No, I'll confess what extremes this game has reduced me to: I slipped out of my office (on a 'bathroom break') went down three floors to where one of my friends works, and *begged* her to let me use her computer for a minute.

And what did I gain? Not a damn thing. :( I was too impatient, and NAF was still screwing with our minds. (I would probably have done the same thing again later on, except that we got awfully busy. This game is like an addiction.)



This doesn't really exonerate her of course, as she could have very easily gone and checked the scum boards, found who died and voted in their, but it could be a check in her favour.



Huh! I never made the connection to not being able to consult during the 'night.' But, hey! I was the first to spot a major tell by Suburban Plankton and posted about it vehemently (though I ended up not voting for him due to timing problems) AND I just went all out to get Pygmy hung. Why would a Mafia do either of those things?

Sheesh. What's a girl got to do around here to show she's innocent.


brewha
Fretful Porpentine
Kat
Lakai
Queuing
StarvingButStrong
Storyteller0910


Wow, such a short list! Well, I've got a lot of thinking (and some research) to do, but here's how I sort them right now:

Town:
Me & Storyteller (for our stirling contributions to snuffing PR)
Queuing (because of Aguecheeks prolonged efforts to snuff him)

Leaning town:
Lakai (due to Brewha's efforts to swing votes his way)

Utterly neutral:
Fretful Porpentine

Leaning Mafia:
Kat (because I like the idea of at least one mafia voting for PR, and I think the others are town.)

Suspicious: Brewha (for all those attempts to sway people away from voting Pygmy)

[QUOTE]
brewha - TOWN (either brilliant or crazy)

I suppose it's possible he's town, but what about his posts/theories 'yesterday' would make you call him 'brilliant'?

[brewha]

Lakai - I'm torn on this one. If pimaspinner (or whatever her name is now) hadn't named him as Town, he'd be on my possible Mafia list.



Everyone really needs to let this go. I'm gonna spell it out for you - beat cops are worthless. We would seriously be better off without them. There is a chance that PimaHockeySpinnerMonkey got a wrong read. Why is that so hard to believe? There is also a very good chance that one of the remaining mafia is the GodFather. You know the one mafia member that comes up town if they are investigated.

Can anyone explain to me a situation where Lakai is not mafia and yesterday's vote goes through anyway? If there were 3 mafia left, they all three knew that Pygmy Rugger was mafia. They knew that they'd be down to 2 if he gets lynched. They could have easily switched votes to Lakai and lynch him instead. Why didn't they? Lakai is mafia.

I was going crazy yesterday because I was sure that if the town was split, the mafia would get an easy lynch. Because if half the town voted mafia and half voted for town, the mafia would pick the town and all vote for that person. The thing I didn't expect was the the town would be split a different way. Half the town votes for mafia the other half votes for another mafia. This is the only thing that could have happened that would not result in a townie death.

If someone can poke holes in my theory other than the fact that a beat cop exonerated Lakai, please tell me.

[Fretful Porpentine]

Fretful Porpentine and Lakai are the final two mafia. It makes sense. Even if Pymgy Rugger would have voted for me or StarvingbutStrong and Lakai and FP were to join him, that would still only be three votes and Pygmy Rugger would still have four.

If Lakai were not mafia, the the remaining two members would have joined his vote and gotten him lynched.

I gotta go back and see if Fretful Porpentine has any concrete evidence that supports his towniness.

Please tell me I'm not going crazy again today!
Nah, you're not going crazy. If I didn't know what I was, I'd be suspicious of me too :)

I don't know what I think right now -- I want to go back and read the beginning of the thread again, because now that we've found six Mafia we should be able to get a good read on how they interact with each other and what their early strategy was, and that should yield some leads.

[brewha]

Suspicious: Brewha (for all those attempts to sway people away from voting Pygmy)




You misunderstood what I was doing. I was trying to sway votes toward Lakai. A small difference but a very important one.

[StarvingButStrong]

Fretful Porpentine and Lakai are the final two mafia. It makes sense. Even if Pymgy Rugger would have voted for me or StarvingbutStrong and Lakai and FP were to join him, that would still only be three votes and Pygmy Rugger would still have four.

If Lakai were not mafia, the the remaining two members would have joined his vote and gotten him lynched.

I gotta go back and see if Fretful Porpentine has any concrete evidence that supports his towniness.

Please tell me I'm not going crazy again today!

Whoa. I've got to work through all the possibilities myself (if ab are the mafia, if ac are the mafia, etc) before I sign on to this theory, but ---nope, on the face of it you aren't in looneyville this time.


Oh, the things I want to research. Might as well toss them out, one of you may already be able to answer off the top of my head:

After Pygmy's lynch, both Brewha and Lakai say the equivalent of "I suck at this game." After Aguecheek's lynch, someone said something similar to "This one is all yours, I was never convinced that Aguecheek was mafia." Who was that?

Pygmy Rugger was under active suspicion and votes on other days. Looking back, can we see if any particular player(s) were active in turning suspicion away from him those times?

Someone recently posted that they'd looked at the voting patterns between Brewha, Lakai, and Pygmy, and basically said they couldn't make sense of it. Does it become any clearer now we know Pygmy was mafia?

I'll look for the answers to this later on, right now I'm going to label some pennies and brute force my way through the possible combinations of 3 and 4 Mafia players and see what I find out.

Fingers crossed that Brewha has found the key to this entire game!

[Kat]

After Pygmy's lynch, both Brewha and Lakai say the equivalent of "I suck at this game." After Aguecheek's lynch, someone said something similar to "This one is all yours, I was never convinced that Aguecheek was mafia." Who was that?

I found this one, by searching for Aguecheek's name--page 69 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8521058&highlight=aguecheek#post8521058), but it's totally unhelpful. It was cowgirl v2.0 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8521080&postcount=3410).

[Queuing]

SBS: I think brewha would be brilliant because his antics ever since he stepped up participation in this thread have been nothing short of completely crazy. If you act this crazy I just don't see you as scum. The scum have played to well to all of a sudden have one of their members go batshit crazy.

Kat: See above. I that is why I think he is town.

That being said he still is acting somewhat crazy now. He is always so damn sure and acts like its obvious and he is ever so brilliant. This is a text based medium however, so I shouldn't read to much into it I suppose, but his posting style bugs me. Its frankly arrogant and annoying in this game.

Due to voting patterns I FOS Fretful however. I just don't see Kat leaving PR to die when another choice is there.

I know you claim that the beat cop is worse then useless brewha, but frankly I don't give a damn what you claim, and I will not vote for Lakai when I still think there is a better choice.

FOS:

Fretful
Brewha (I just don't know about him)
Lakai and Kat


Then the rest, and if one of them turns out to be scum then dammit, they win.

[Fretful Porpentine]

Someone recently posted that they'd looked at the voting patterns between Brewha, Lakai, and Pygmy, and basically said they couldn't make sense of it. Does it become any clearer now we know Pygmy was mafia?
That would be me, and ... not really. All I can make of it is that brewha is either a) very confused; or b) trying on purpose to make everybody else very confused. I'm leaning scum on brewha and town on Lakai, but I don't feel very confident about either of those.

[brewha]

SBS: I think brewha would be brilliant because his antics ever since he stepped up participation in this thread have been nothing short of completely crazy. If you act this crazy I just don't see you as scum. The scum have played to well to all of a sudden have one of their members go batshit crazy.

Kat: See above. I that is why I think he is town.

That being said he still is acting somewhat crazy now. He is always so damn sure and acts like its obvious and he is ever so brilliant. This is a text based medium however, so I shouldn't read to much into it I suppose, but his posting style bugs me. Its frankly arrogant and annoying in this game.

Due to voting patterns I FOS Fretful however. I just don't see Kat leaving PR to die when another choice is there.

I know you claim that the beat cop is worse then useless brewha, but frankly I don't give a damn what you claim, and I will not vote for Lakai when I still think there is a better choice.

FOS:

Fretful
Brewha (I just don't know about him)
Lakai and Kat


Then the rest, and if one of them turns out to be scum then dammit, they win.


So I read through my post and I can see how I come off batshit crazy. I just saw the town taking a bad turn and I was pretty much think out loud. I should have composed my thoughts and just made one clear post. The bonus is that I know have a better read on everyone that argued with me yesterday. Of course the bad news is that everyone else thinks I'm off my rocker.

You wanna lynch Fretful? A OK fine by me. See above. If you can find a scenario where Pygmy Rugger gets lynched with the mafia being unable to stop it and the remaining mafia being other than Lakai and Fretful Porpentine, I will be happy to hear it.

I've been wrong before, just show me how I'm wrong this time.

[brewha]

It's my theory, I'll do the support work. Please just read this without thinking "Great here comes another crazy ass rant".

Here's how the voting ended up:
4- Pygmy Rugger - (StarvingButStrong, Kat, Queuing, Storyteller)
3- Lakai - (brewha, Pygmy Rugger, Pleonast)
1- brewha - (Fretful Porpentine)
1-StarvingButStrong - (Lakai)

The only way that Lakai lives without being scum is if all three people that voted for him are the last three mafia. Pygmy Rugger is but I think that was to make him look innocent if the lynching went through. I voted for him, so lets say in this instance I am scum. Pleonast voted for him, and after last night we are 100% sure that he was not scum. So, since at least one of the three that voted for him is town, at least one mafia did not vote for him. Another mafia had, he would have had four votes and would have at least tied for the chance of a toss up. IF you are willing to believe that I am not mafia, that means that two mafia could have voted for him and swung the vote his way. The only reason the rest of the mafia did not vote for Lakai is that he is one of them.

I should just skip the scenario that assumes that I am town, since few people believe me at this point anyway. But I had one vote for me. If the person voting for me were town, the three mafia could join that town vote and at least tie the vote. The only way they could get the majority vote is if one of the people that voted for Pygmy Rugger were mafia. That way PR gets one less (3) and I get a total of four. I die. The reason I didn't is either because I'm mafia or because the person already voting for me is.

Lets look at SBS. Exactly the same scenario exists if he is town. If the person voting for him is town, the three mafia could join that town vote for a total of 4 and at least tie for a chance at the lynch. Or if one of the poeple voting for PR is mafia, they could switch to SBS, the other two join the one townie that is voting and SBS gets a total of 4 votes while PR gets only 3. The only way that SBS lives is if he is mafia or if the person voting for him is.

Here's what I can conclude.
Lakai is mafia.
The person that voted for me is mafia.
The person that voted for SBS is mafia.
All of the people that voted for Pygmy Rugger are town.

I challenge anyone to prove me otherwise.

[Queuing]

I will admit that right now I don't have an answer for you, brewha. That doesn't mean I agree with you however, or am sold on the idea that Lakai is scum, and you and/or kat aren't. I am not sure if the scum would have been willing to try this but we must remember they cannot talk throughout the day and things happen during the day that they may not be able to react to. The last couple of days the town has switched very suddenly in the last few hours and maybe the scum were hoping that would happen again. Maybe that is why you unvoted PR. Or maybe its as you say. I don't know, and your credibility is low with me (and it isn't just because of yesterday, I have found your reasoning suspect a lot since you became more active, I realize you probably think the same of me). I admit that your explanation as to why you unvoted PR and when you did it the time does possibly match up. The clock did start at 1216 and you unvoted at 1223. However you did switch your mind pretty damn quick. You voted for PR at 1133. Less then an hour and you come up with a whole new theory?

Do you see how this has harmed your credibility? Votes are crucial right now, as you yourself have pointed out, yet you throw them around like candy. This is just another hole in your gameplay. Right now FOSing is just as good as voting. Top that off with an appeal to known (now) scum yesterday here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8546910&postcount=3603) and then your appeal to authority (pleonast) and well....its hard to get behind you, you know?

I will change my list however:

Fretful Porpentine
brewha/Lakai/Kat


We have lost to a worthy foe if its SBS.

We have lost to an absolute brilliant player who could teach intrigue (fitting as well as I think you might be a teacher?) if Storyteller is scum.

We have lost to a blithering idiot if I am scum because that means I can't even read NAF's PM properly.

[Queuing]

grr, stupid me didn't preview, the above post was meant to answer the post where brewha quoted me.

[storyteller0910]

Can anyone explain to me a situation where Lakai is not mafia and yesterday's vote goes through anyway?


Yes. I can. Let us hypothetically imagine that two of the voters for Pygmy Rugger were the two remaining scum. In this hypothetical, Lakai is town. Now further imagine that two minutes before the deadline, our two other scum switch votes from Pygmy to Lakai. Lakai dies, and we learn that he is town. The game does not end there. The following Day, the town looks at the situation and sees that two players made a last minute switch that got a townie killed. What do we do? We lynch one of the switchers, of course. He/she is Mafia. We lynch the other switcher. Mafia. We lynch Pygmy Rugger. We win. By winning the short term battle - getting Lakai killed in place of Pygmy - the Mafia would have lost the game.

I am not saying that I think your theory is without merit; I am saying it is not the airtight certainty you are trying to present it as being. We need more than this. Do you have other reasons to suspect Lakai? Reasons having to do with his voting patterns, and more importantly to do with his logic and reasoning? Because so far, I can't really find anything one way or another.

[Kat]

I admit that brewha's scenario is very tempting, and makes sense. I am, however, still very suspicious of him and so I don't know if I buy it or not. I can completely understand why Fretful voted for him yesterday. Hell, I would have switched my vote to him, if that wouldn't have brought Pygmy Rugger down to a tie vote.

Damn, this is as bad as Day Two.

[Queuing]

"Sitting ever so patiently waiting to hear who storyteller thinks is scum"

[brewha]

Yes. I can. Let us hypothetically imagine that two of the voters for Pygmy Rugger were the two remaining scum. In this hypothetical, Lakai is town. Now further imagine that two minutes before the deadline, our two other scum switch votes from Pygmy to Lakai. Lakai dies, and we learn that he is town. The game does not end there. The following Day, the town looks at the situation and sees that two players made a last minute switch that got a townie killed. What do we do? We lynch one of the switchers, of course. He/she is Mafia. We lynch the other switcher. Mafia. We lynch Pygmy Rugger. We win. By winning the short term battle - getting Lakai killed in place of Pygmy - the Mafia would have lost the game.

I am not saying that I think your theory is without merit; I am saying it is not the airtight certainty you are trying to present it as being. We need more than this. Do you have other reasons to suspect Lakai? Reasons having to do with his voting patterns, and more importantly to do with his logic and reasoning? Because so far, I can't really find anything one way or another.


Good, theres a scenario. I don't buy it, but it is plausible. If the other two mafia were smart, they would have just switched the votes around so that everyone but Lakai had two. 2 for me, 2 for SBS, 2 for Pygmy. Or they could just drop their votes all together and not vote for pymgy. He goes down to 2. Lakai gets lynched with the remaining three and everyone else say oops, wrong guy. The only way they couldn't drop the vote count for PR is if all the PR voters were town.


Please don't read this as me saying 'ha, you're an idiot' I want to find a situation where my theory is seriously flawed. If anyone else likes StoryTellers scenario more than mine, let me know. We got plenty of time to figure this out.


I have other reasons for voting Lakai, I've been voting him for the last three days - maybe four. I did a whole post synopsis pointing to his guilt.

[Queuing]

You are forgetting that the mafia do not get to talk during the day. A concentrated effort of vote switching as you suggest would be hard to pull off without a lot of people all of a sudden changing votes, and drawing suspicion to themselves. Kind of like what you did.

Pleonast could do it because he was 100% confirmed town. You, and no one else, is.

[storyteller0910]

Huh! I never made the connection to not being able to consult during the 'night.' But, hey! I was the first to spot a major tell by Suburban Plankton and posted about it vehemently (though I ended up not voting for him due to timing problems) AND I just went all out to get Pygmy hung. Why would a Mafia do either of those things?


I am ashamed to admit that I had a vague idea that either you or Fretful were the one to have fingered Suburban Plankton initially, but couldn't muster up the courage to go plowing through the thread again trying to figure out which. Now I've looked it up, and see that it is the case. Given that fact, I think you join Queuing at the bottom of my suspicion list. It's not so much that you voted Plankton, nor even that you started the nominal bandwagon on him (?); I think scum will vote for and bandwagon other scum. It is the fact that you publicized the tell out of nowhere, when no one was really even paying attention to Plankton at the time. I can't think of a good reason why Mafia would be essentially the first person to even mention another Mafia as a target.

So, I'm going on the assumption that StarvingButStrong and Queuing are town; if I'm wrong about either, then this is going to go poorly, but I have to start somewhere.


Lakai (due to Brewha's efforts to swing votes his way)


I don't really think that brewha's obsession with Lakai is definitive proof of anything. If brewha is Mafia, then Lakai is most certainly town. If Lakai is Mafia, then brewha is most certainly town. The third possibility is that both are town. This situation seems unresolvable.

brewha, however, seems to be getting a pass and should not. He voted for Pygmy Rugger early yesterday and then, when the votes started piling up on Pygmy, bailed on that bandwagon and began frantically trying to keep us from lynching Pygmy. He has also formed an elaborate theory today that is predicated on the assumption that any Mafia on the Pygmy bandwagon would bail on it in a frantic attempt to keep us from lynching Pygmy. In other words, he has been suggesting all Day so far that scum would do exactly what he did. I have struggled to understand why brewha has not grasped why the Mafia wouldn't abandon ship - why he thinks jumping off Pygmy in an attempt to save him would be the Mafia's only play - and maybe it's because it's the play he, as Mafia, chose himself.

I don't know about Fretful or Kat, or even really Lakai. I guess if brewha is indeed Mafia as I suggest above, Lakai is almost surely not. If I'm choosing between those two players, I can't figure out a reason to vote for Lakai over brewha.

So I guess my list goes like this (most to least suspicious):

brewha
Lakai
StarvingButStrong
Queuing

with Fretful and Kat TBD. Right at this moment, if forced to vote, I'd vote for brewha. Before I vote, though, I want to go back and read up on my two remaining mystery guests (Kat and Fretful), to see how they fit into all of this. But these are my at the moment thoughts, for what they're worth.

This game is hard.

[Queuing]

But are you a teacher?

I mean come on! I waited patiently and everything!

[storyteller0910]

But are you a teacher?

I mean come on! I waited patiently and everything!

For about two minutes this post confused me mightily, as I missed the post in which you asked the question in the first place. No, not a teacher. I'm a medical writer for a small but notorious pharmaceutical company, and a freelance writer of more creative-type stuff.

My wife's a teacher, of fifth grade band. The degree of patience, decency, and confidence with which she approaches her workday astounds me. I would be terrified.

[Queuing]

Oh.

dammit then. There goes the whole trust thing.

[Lakai]

4- Pygmy Rugger - (StarvingButStrong, Kat, Queuing, Storyteller)
3- Lakai - (brewha, Pygmy Rugger, Pleonast)
1- brewha - (Fretful Porpentine)
1-StarvingButStrong - (Lakai)

Well at least we know there isn't four mafia guys out there. If there were four, that would mean one person that voted for PR is mafia and could have switched their vote toward me to end the game. The only way this doesn't work is if the four mafia are me, PR, brewha and Fretful Porpentine. Which is unlikely because then none of us tried to point the FOS on a town, except for me with about 12 hours left to go.

So there were less than three, and now about two or one.

That is all I could come up with.

[StarvingButStrong]

Can anyone explain to me a situation where Lakai is not mafia and yesterday's vote goes through anyway? If there were 3 mafia left, they all three knew that Pygmy Rugger was mafia. They knew that they'd be down to 2 if he gets lynched. They could have easily switched votes to Lakai and lynch him instead. Why didn't they? Lakai is mafia.


I was going crazy yesterday because I was sure that if the town was split, the mafia would get an easy lynch. Because if half the town voted mafia and half voted for town, the mafia would pick the town and all vote for that person. The thing I didn't expect was the the town would be split a different way. Half the town votes for mafia the other half votes for another mafia. This is the only thing that could have happened that would not result in a townie death.

If someone can poke holes in my theory other than the fact that a beat cop exonerated Lakai, please tell me.

Okay, how about this case: the three Mafia were Pygmy Rugger, Fretful, and Brewha. (Meaning the other six were town.)

Pygmy had four 'town' votes - SBS, Kat, Queing, and Storyteller.
Lakai had one 'town' vote - Pleonast plus two Mafia - Brewha and Pygmy.

What can this particular Mafia trio do to save Pygmy? Well, Brewha could beg and plead for some of the townies to switch their vote from PR to Lakai. He did, but no soap, and the deadline was approaching.

What then? Well, Fretful could change his vote to Lakai, possibly citing the uselessness of leaving it as a singleton, resulting in a 4-4 Pygmy/Lakai tie, and they could hope that chance would save Pygmy.

Except as soon as Fretful voted for him, Lakai would HAVE to switch his vote from me to Pygmy just to save himself. And given how precious each townie's life is right now, that wouldn't be a selfish act, merely what he needed to do to preserve his own, known to be town, life.

Result: Pygmy hangs anyway, and a huge focus of suspicion fall on each and every one who DIDN'T vote for PR. Probably especially on Fretful for his last minute jump.

So what should Fretful do instead? Why, vote for anyone other than Pygmy or Lakai. (He shouldn't vote for Pygmy to leave open the chance that Kat would be swayed at the last minute to jump to Lakai.) And he'd get bonus points for voting for fellow mafia Brewha -- a distancing vote that costs nothing.

Which explains the final vote count we had, doesn't it?


Mind, I'm not saying I have a deep belief that Brewha and Fretful are the last two Mafia. Brewha just asked if someone could poke a hole in his theory that it had to be Lakai and Fretful, and I believe I've just done that.

There may be other trios that work out similarly, I quit when I hit this one, it only taking one counter example to kill a theory.


I'm sorry, Brewha! It would be really nice to have it cut and dried.


However, there are two even bigger problems in relying on reasoning like this.

First, it requires that the Mafia all play impeccable games, always making the perfect logical moves -- but is that reasonable? Yes, they get to conspire at night, but whatever plans they have can be upset when the Townies do something unexpected. In the post above, Brewha mentions how he was totally surprised when the town vote was split between 'two Mafia.' Well, couldn't the Mafia have been equally caught by surprise when 4/5ths of the townies stubbornly insisted on voting for a particular mafia? It was a surprising show of solidarity, unprecedented by the town before this. Once it happened, each of the Mafia individually had to decide what to do, and try to guess what the others are up to and coordinate their efforts in an 'invisible' way. Not exactly a easy thing to do. The mafia are just as human as the townies -- they can easily miss the 'correct' move under time pressure and deprived of the chance to discuss.

Second, you're totally focusing on a single play. A sensible player has to look ahead and see what the consequences are. For any of the Mafia - whoever they are - staying unsuspected is FAR more important than saving any single other mafia. So losing PR reduces them to two? So what? They still get to kill a townie each night. Better two mafia still hidden among some townies than three mafia and four townies who KNOW EXACTLY who the mafia are and will string them up one by one for the win.

All in all, this theory of yours is either a honest failure or a really nifty way to encourage the town to lynch Lakai. You did, after all, want us to go after him instead of his 'co-mafioso' Fretful, right? So, if you actually are a Mafia, you would manage to get townie Lakai lynched, and then what? At worst we manage to lynch you the following day. But Fretful? Why, he might even really be a mafia, but since you yoked him to Lakai, and then Lakai proved town....


So, so many twists and turns. How paranoid can we be? How paranoid do we need to be?


=

Just had another thought, and I refuse to rewrite the above to fit it in properly:

Actually, the situation against PR was even worse than 4 out of 5 townie votes. Pleonast said he would switch his vote if it looked like PR was not going to be lynched, and why wouldn't the mafia believe him?

So, why didn't Pleonast simply shift his vote at the time he made his post? Well, my guess is that he was waiting to see if anything 'interesting' happened. Like votes suddenly shifting onto Lakai at the last minute... And knowing that Pleonast was watching would make it even less likely for a Mafia to take a risky vote shift that was even more likely in vain.


Oh, and come to think of it, I think the results would be very similar if the Mafia were Brewha, Pygmy and Kat: if Kat jumped from PR to Lakai, then Lakai would shift to PR, and so would Pleonast, and again the Mafia would have thrown a spotlight onto one of themselves in a vain attempt to save another.


Wow. Very long post. Is there a size limit?

[StarvingButStrong]

Or, IOW, what StoryTeller said, and a lot more compactly.


I have GOT to learn to preview instead of hitting submit when I take a looong time to write a post. :o

[Pleonast]

I didn't even have time to get my last drink at the bar! I guess it's good I didn't have anything further to say... :p

[Lakai]

Actually, the situation against PR was even worse than 4 out of 5 townie votes. Pleonast said he would switch his vote if it looked like PR was not going to be lynched, and why wouldn't the mafia believe him?

So, why didn't Pleonast simply shift his vote at the time he made his post? Well, my guess is that he was waiting to see if anything 'interesting' happened. Like votes suddenly shifting onto Lakai at the last minute... And knowing that Pleonast was watching would make it even less likely for a Mafia to take a risky vote shift that was even more likely in vain.


Oh, and come to think of it, I think the results would be very similar if the Mafia were Brewha, Pygmy and Kat: if Kat jumped from PR to Lakai, then Lakai would shift to PR, and so would Pleonast, and again the Mafia would have thrown a spotlight onto one of themselves in a vain attempt to save another.

I did not acount for this. Somehow I missed that Pleonast was going to switch his vote to Pygmy. I was thinking along similar lines, that if Pygmy was mafia that someone would jump and try to lynch me. I was thinking more along the lines that if someone jumped from Pygmy that Pygmy was mafia. I somehow did not make the logical connection that the jumper might be mafia. I like to imagine that I would have made the connection once it happened.

I guess that would make it a pretty smart move by the mafia for not attempting to finialize my lynch. If anyone jumped away from pygmy, pleonast and me might have very well switched. I did say that I wasn't going to be able to post until the lynching, but maybe they did not believe me. Maybe they were afraid of Pleonast switching. Who knows anything anymore?

I don't know if Pleonast was serious or not, or if he intended it this way, but that threat might have prevented the mafia from killing me last night.

[brewha]

The bitch about this whole situation is that I'm the one who came up with the theory. If it had been someone more trusted, I think the rest of the town would be more likely to at least consider it.

In both cases where my theory didn't work out, I was mafia. So, I propose that (ideally) we lynch Fretful Porpentine or Lakai. If we can't, as a town, lynch them - then lynch me. I'll be fine going to the noose under the condition that the town lynch Fretful Porpentine and Lakai if I come up town.

We have one free mistake to make. If I get lynched, that's the one mistake. But, if that's what it takes to get everyone to see that I am trying to do what's best for the town, then so be it. I still win if the town wins, right?

[Lakai]

The bitch about this whole situation is that I'm the one who came up with the theory. If it had been someone more trusted, I think the rest of the town would be more likely to at least consider it.

In both cases where my theory didn't work out, I was mafia. So, I propose that (ideally) we lynch Fretful Porpentine or Lakai. If we can't, as a town, lynch them - then lynch me. I'll be fine going to the noose under the condition that the town lynch Fretful Porpentine and Lakai if I come up town.

We have one free mistake to make. If I get lynched, that's the one mistake. But, if that's what it takes to get everyone to see that I am trying to do what's best for the town, then so be it. I still win if the town wins, right?

Read my post again. If anyone were to switch from Pygmy to me, then Pleonast and I could have switched toward Pygmy. The threat of that alone was enough for the mafia to risk lynching their own.

[Queuing]

The bitch about this whole situation is that I'm the one who came up with the theory. If it had been someone more trusted, I think the rest of the town would be more likely to at least consider it.

Who isn't considering it? You asked for holes and holes have been shown and now you are calling it "a bitch of a situation"? Relax, step away from the keyboard.

What I, and I think others, don't get is your sensitivity and your vote switching. You have not come up with a reasonable explanation as to you why you switched the vote inside one hour.

Consider it from an outside point of view:

It makes sense, sort of, that the mafia wouldn't want to vote one of their own correct?

Therefore it looks somewhat suspicious that someone changed a vote from a mafia member to someone else within 10 minutes of a countdown starting. Then that same person was almost frothing at the mouth indignant about the votes for that mafia member, and begged/pleaded/appealed to authority to try to save said mafia member.

And we are just suppose to say "oh thats just brewha?" And now buy yet another theory that has proven to not be as complete as you claim it to be? How are we suppose to know if this theory of yours is a good one? Or just more of the same from you?

That being said, I am going to go ahead and do this:

Lynch Fretful Porpentine.

I see 4 people I am not sure of. We may have 2 or 3 mafia left. That is either a 1/2 chance or a 3/4 chance that even random guessing will be correct. I think we have more on Fretful then just random guessing. So I suppose I see no reason not to throw a vote onto him.

Tomorrow I think we should lynch either Lakai or brewha.

I bet the mafia kills storyteller tonight.

[brewha]

Read my post again. If anyone were to switch from Pygmy to me, then Pleonast and I could have switched toward Pygmy. The threat of that alone was enough for the mafia to risk lynching their own.

I admit that that is a legitimate hole in my theory. If you are town and one of the SBS, Queuing,Kat, or Storyteller are mafia, they could have switched at the last minute hoping that it would be too late for Pleonast to switch his vote. If he did have time, then Pymgy Rugger still gets lynched and the move is wasted. If Pleonast didn't have time, then Lakai gets lynched and the switcher looks suspicious.

I have two problems with this theory. First, it would mean that at least one mafia member started the day by voting for one of their own. Maybe this was done to defer suspicion, but it wouldn't be suspicious if they just waited to vote instead of leaving their vote on PR. The second problem is that if they had switched and the lynch gone through, they would have taken out a townie during the day, then been able to take out anther that night. Of course, the switcher dies the next day, or PR dies the next day, but the switch vote makes the town lose their only screw up. In this situation, the third mafia member is still well hidden. It would be a gamble for mafia, but it still results in two town for two mafia, with the third mafia remaining hidden. It also forces the town to lose its last mistake. Not an entirely bad deal.



On preview:
Queuing, I didn't call it a bitch of a situation. I like the like the situation and I think a victory for the town is very possible at this point. I meant that it sucks that I was the one who came up with this theory. I'm not very well trusted and I realize that. I'm the guy who comes up with crazy ideas and I fear at this point I'm like the boy who called scum and no one will seriously consider that I'm on to something.

That said, I will happily vote to lynch Fretful Porpentine today. Don't take this as a willy nilly throwing votes around, but I'm going to change my vote from one of my two suspects to the other. I am going to hold off on the actual vote until we can come to a concensus. But, for now,

Unvote Lakai

[StarvingButStrong]

Okay, everybody likely realizes this already, but just in case...

I think the real lesson from yesterday's lynch is that the townies pretty much HAVE to block vote in order to keep the mafia from being able to pick who gets lynched.

Yes, it could probably work out 'okay' if the town managed to split their votes between the final two mafia...but I think hoping for another lucky break like that isn't a good plan.

Assuming there are no more than two Mafia left (fingers crossed) we have 5 town.

I believe Queuing and StoryTeller and I have each posted that we trust the other two to be town. (Hopefully we're right!) Of the remaining four, two are mafia who know we are town, and the last two are townies that I hope also have the three of us on their trust list.

What I suggest we need to do is agree on this plan:

If at all humanly possible, Queuing, Storyteller and I must not split our votes. We must debate/horsetrade until we reach a consensus candidate for today's lynch. The other townies should also debate and vote for whoever they most suspect as we go along -- we need input! - but once we three 'relatively known' townies settle on a candidate the other two townies should (if necessary) switch their votes to align with us. The Mafia will, of course, also be casting votes and give reasons for why X should be killed -- but hopefully they won't be able to sell the Trusted Three on voting for a townie -- and so long as the town votes en masse, it doesn't matter where the Mafia votes end up.

I'm sorry that this looks really bossy -- making the other two townies somehow 'second class' citizens -- but I think it's the safest way to keep the Mafia from getting to pick the lynchee, and clearly the choice of candidate will at bottom come down to which person has the strongest case built against him, and the 'other two' townies can play a major role in that.


Note: I'm off all day today, but Thursday and Friday I'll be working from noon to 8pm. plus commute time and possibly time for dinner. We need to settle on our lynch candidate early enough that I can vote for him/her AND there's enough time for the other two townies to get their votes aligned.


Looking ahead.... the Mafia are most likely to kill one of Queuing, Storyteller, and me this night. Tomorrow there will be only five players left, either 3T/2M (ouch) or 4T/1M. Both ways there should still be two of us 'trusted' townies -- even if we get it wrong today, I suggest the best play tomorrow would be for all townies to again follow the Trusted 2.

Remember, we can still win, we just can't accidentally lynch more than one townie in the next three days.

[brewha]

Tomorrow I think we should lynch either Lakai or brewha.

I bet the mafia kills storyteller tonight.


I'm entirely on board with this as long as if you lynch me tomorrow, you lynch Lakai the following day. We still get one town lynch, so if my theory is correct, the town still wins.

[StarvingButStrong]

[QUOTE=Queuing]That being said, I am going to go ahead and do this:

Lynch Fretful Porpentine.

I see 4 people I am not sure of. We may have 2 or 3 mafia left. That is either a 1/2 chance or a 3/4 chance that even random guessing will be correct. I think we have more on Fretful then just random guessing. So I suppose I see no reason not to throw a vote onto him.

Tomorrow I think we should lynch either Lakai or brewha.

[\QUOTE]

Queuing, can you point me to a post that lays out the case against Fretful?

My plan for today still involves digging into what happened the previous times Pgymy was under suspicion.

[Queuing]

Give me a few, but a townie who was about to get lynch begged and pleaded for us to look at fretful. I believe it was Mad the Swine. Here is Fretful's posting history from Kat (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8493103&postcount=3104) and her analysis (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8494224&postcount=3110) .

My basic reason for going after fretful over Lakai, brewha or Kat is due to the votes for PR. Kat voted early for PR, and left the vote there. The previous few days both Storyteller and myself had voted for PR. This leads me to think that if scum was going to try to vote for scum they would have voted for someone who didn't already have 2 townies on his tail. Not saying this is a for sure thing by any means, but its a check in her favour in my mind.

So that leaves us with Fretful, Brewha and Lakai. Brewha I am completely unsure of. My gut says town however, and since I feed it with beer last night it is happy with me today, and I am choosing to go along with it :). This could very easily change, and the more he talks the more I want to lynch him, but that is not a very good reason to lynch right now.

So that leaves us with lakai and fretful. Neither one voted for PR. However Lakai did get a reading from a beat cop that said town. Now I know this isn't necessarily true, and I am not going to bother with Math. Sure he could be the GF. Sure the reading could be wrong. It could be right to. I have no idea. In light of that though I see no reason to vote for him....yet.

This just leaves us with Fretful. He didn't vote for PR. He hasn't acted somewhat crazy. He didn't have a cop reading. Since I believe that I can firmly eliminate the 3 you have mentioned, I have 4 to choose from. Regardless of the number of scum left (1/2/3) my odds are very good that I will choose right regardless, or we can be wrong a couple more times.

Its really just a process of elimination and I feel that Fretful is the correct choice today.

[brewha]

I think the real lesson from yesterday's lynch is that the townies pretty much HAVE to block vote in order to keep the mafia from being able to pick who gets lynched.



Sure, it doesn't sound crazy when you say it.

I 100% agree. That's why I was going crazy yesterday, because people apparently didn't understand that.

[storyteller0910]

OK, seriously, this game is getting to me. I woke up at about 4:00AM and couldn't fall back to sleep because I was thinking about this game. I have thoughts - not exactly a theory on who is Mafia, but more a general idea on how we might approach the remaining 2-3 game Days to maximize our chances of winning. This idea seems to go hand in hand with what some of you are saying already, so let's see what you all think.

First, assumptions (I've done this a lot; it seems to make thinking about everything a little clearer). The following are thing that I am assuming to be true for the purposes of this analysis.

1. There is at least one, but very likely two, remaining Mafia. This means that, as brewha points out, we essentially can absorb one and only one mislynch without losing the game.

2. I, Queuing, and StarvingbutStrong are three of the five remaining townspeople. My thoughts on these subjects have been the subject of far too many posts already, so for the moment I'll move on to:

3. It is possible that Lakai and brewha are both town, but it is exceedingly unlikely that they are both Mafia.

4. Combine #2 and #3 and you come to the conclusion that at least one, and possibly both, of Fretful and/or Kat, are Mafia as well.

Now, everything that follows is based on these assumptions alone, so the first step is to decide whether we all accept them. I believe that #1 is pretty much indisputable, yes? #4 follows logically from #2 + #3.

So we're really talking about #2 and #3. You may want to question my assignment of Queuing or SbS as town, or my own alignment. You may also want to suggest that it is possible that Lakai and brewha are both Mafia. So first, consider these assumptions. Pick them apart. They will become important below the dotted line to follow:

----------------------------------------------------------------

If numbers 1 through 4 are correct, then essentially the lynch choices boil down to two pairs (Lakai/brewha and Fretful/Kat). We then have one of two options. One high risk but with a bigger reward if we choose well today; one is lower risk but lower reward. I present them below:

Option A: Lynch someone from the pair of Lakai and brewha. This is the high risk option.

If the person we lynch under this plan is Mafia, and all my assumptions hold, we will be guaranteed a win. Whichever of the pair we didn't lynch can be assumed to be town. Tomorrow we will lynch either Kat or Fretful; if we get that one wrong, we lynch the other. Game over.

If we choose either Lakai or brewha and miss, hitting a townie, then we are going to be in a pickle. We'll have, I think, a 2 in 3 chance of getting Mafia choosing among Kat, Fretful, and whichever of the brewha/Lakai pair we didn't go for, then a 1 in 2 chance of finishing the job the next day, for an overall 2 in 6, or 33% chance of winning.

Option B: Lynch someone from the pair of Fretful and Kat

If the person we lynch under this plan is Mafia, we will not be guaranteed a win. There will be one remaining Mafia, three remaining candidates, and two guesses, essentially.

If the person we lynch under this plan is town, then we can very nearly be assured that the other of the Kat/Fretful pairing is Mafia, thereby assuring us a successful lynch tomorrow. That puts us at the final day choosing between brewha and Lakai.

So to sum up, our chances of winning given each of these eventualities, from best to worst:

We lynch Lakai or brewha, hit Mafia: 100%
We lynch Fretful or Kat, hit Mafia: Some number <100% but >50%
We lynch Fretful or Kat, hit town: 50%
We lynch Lakai or brewha, hit town: 33%

---------------------------------------------------

Thoughts?

[Fretful Porpentine]

Hmm, this is interesting -- this is my first chance to observe a bandwagon developing against someone I KNOW to be town. I shall hold off on my own vote until I see how it unfolds. I will say this in defense of my own voting history:

Why did I vote for brewha yesterday? I do not like voting with crowds; I said so early on, here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414695&postcount=632) (note the early FoS against FCOD, for whom I subsequently voted). I didn't want to vote for Pygmy Rugger yesterday because the lynch simply seemed too easy -- too many people were pushing, or had pushed, for it -- and I'd already made the same mistake with hocow the day before. (I began to suspect Pygmy Rugger was in fact scum after SBS pointed out his slip about the numbers of remaining Mafia, and after that I would have voted for him if I'd seen any telltale jumps away from the bandwagon at the last minute, in accordance with my promise here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8548145&postcount=3634).) However, I also believed, and continue to believe, that brewha is scum; especially in the last few days, he strikes me as an inconsistent, opportunistic poster who keeps trying to cozy up to townies yet seldom leaves his vote on a Mafia member at the end of the day.

Why did I vote for hocow the day before yesterday? I screwed that one up, and I regret it; if we weren't down to the wire, I'd say I deserve to be lynched for this one. I didn't want to leave my vote on brewha, where it would do no good, so I decided to pick one of the other two leading candidates. I had a theory, which I had outlined here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8466432&postcount=2723), about the voting patterns of Mafia; hocow, who had very few posts, few votes, and only one final vote for a Mafia, fit this pattern better than Pygmy Rugger, who was a vocal poster with many votes and a final vote for Suburban Plankton on Day 3, when it really counted, as well as Aguecheek on Day 5. I was wrong (and so I decided I was going to go with my gut instinct and not peer pressure the next day, come what may). About the only other thing I can say in my defense is that the surviving Mafia in this game are incredibly clever and good at hiding, and I suspect that in casting the crucial swing vote, I rushed in where real Mafia would fear to tread.

What else can I say in defense of my voting record? I voted for Suburban Plankton, a mafioso, rather than Fern Forest, a townie, during the close election on Day 3. I also cast my final vote for Aguecheek on Day 7 (early on, before it became a popular bandwagon). I HAVEN'T voted on a lot of the bandwagons against townies, including Enfant Terrible, MTS, Gadarene, and Malacandra, for the simple reason that I either did not believe them to be Mafia at all, or else was not sure enough to cast a vote.

Why did Autolycus FoS me before he died? I have no idea.

Why did MadTheSwine FoS me (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8479533&postcount=2926) before he died? Because, apparently, I had a record of NOT jumping on bandwagons against townies, and because I'd voted against FCOD and kivvik at a time when nobody else suspected them of being Mafia. Apparently my instincts were uncanny, or something. I don't think they are. I've been right on a few occasions; I've been really, spectacularly wrong on a number of other occasions; I think I've probably been right and wrong in roughly the proportions you'd expect from a townie who likes working out new theories and dislikes voting with the crowd, but is otherwise flying blind.

[Queuing]

In his last few hours here are the posts from MtS about Fretful:

post 2915 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8479244&postcount=2915) Fretful changed votes from me to brewha. MtS took this as not wanting to jump on a bandwagon and basically gain some town cred.

post 2920 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8479332&postcount=2920) MtS posts a couple of posts from Fretful, again pointing out that Fretful didn't want to vote for the condemned in an attempt to gain cred.

post 2926 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8479533&postcount=2926) More posts from Fretful, same reasons given.

post 2933 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8479684&postcount=2933) calls Fretful crazy like a fox (which is just a phrase I have always enjoyed), basically same reasons given. MtS thinks Fretful is always willing to jump off a bandwagon once it has safely flown (that seems to be what MtS is basically saying).

ON PREVIEW: Hmm, another interesting post from storyteller. Which option do you prefer? And of the pair who would you rather hit?

I think I prefer option B. We are close to winning and I don't want to lose. Plus I think the scum is Fretful out of that pair, giving us a better then 50% chance of winning.

On option A I suppose that I would want to lynch ummm, dammit I just don't know. Which is my problem with A.

I would like to hear what SBS and yourself have to say about whom we lynch in both pairs.

[storyteller0910]

ON PREVIEW: Hmm, another interesting post from storyteller. Which option do you prefer? And of the pair who would you rather hit?


Before I choose an option or a target, I want to know if people agree with the contention that it is unlikely that both brewha and Lakai are Mafia. The problem with both of my plans is that if I am wrong about this - if Lakai is the GF and brewha his underling, say - then my plans guarantee us a loss. So I want to see what the rest of the town thinks of that assumption before I go further with this line of thinking (I assume Lakai and brewha will both agree with the assumption even if it's untrue, so the rest of you?).

[Lakai]

Before I choose an option or a target, I want to know if people agree with the contention that it is unlikely that both brewha and Lakai are Mafia. The problem with both of my plans is that if I am wrong about this - if Lakai is the GF and brewha his underling, say - then my plans guarantee us a loss. So I want to see what the rest of the town thinks of that assumption before I go further with this line of thinking (I assume Lakai and brewha will both agree with the assumption even if it's untrue, so the rest of you?).

I was thinking it over and I really don't like the idea of letting brewha slide because his behavior is too crazy. The only person to be FOSed besides Pygmy was me and by brewha. For the whole game I've been assuming that the mafia could be really slick, but maybe they aren't?

I would like to see brewha die today. If he turns up town I'd go after Kat or Fretful.

No one has come up with a convincing case against anyone right now, so if brewha is not mafia I will be completely lost. The remaining mafia player will be a bitch to catch.

Vote brewha

[Fretful Porpentine]

Before I choose an option or a target, I want to know if people agree with the contention that it is unlikely that both brewha and Lakai are Mafia. The problem with both of my plans is that if I am wrong about this - if Lakai is the GF and brewha his underling, say - then my plans guarantee us a loss. So I want to see what the rest of the town thinks of that assumption before I go further with this line of thinking (I assume Lakai and brewha will both agree with the assumption even if it's untrue, so the rest of you?).
I don't know. If they're both Mafia, they've played these last few days brilliantly -- but it's fair to say that the Mafia has been playing brilliantly all along, and deliberately distancing themselves from one another so that they can gain the town's trust is very likely the winning strategy at this point. I'd also like to float the possibility that there are actually three of them left, and Pygmy Rugger's "slip" was actually a calculated piece of disinformation; I think it was obvious after we lynched hocow that Pygmy Rugger was next in line no matter what, and plausible that they have planned this overnight.

If there are three left, the endgame could look like this:

Yesterday: 4 mafiosi, 5 townies. Pygmy Rugger, the chosen sacrifice, implies that there are only three mafiosi; other people seize on this. Pygmy Rugger is lynched, with a vote from one or more of his fellow mafiosi, but the town has taken the bait.

Today: 3 mafiosi, 4 townies. The townies believe they have a free lynch at this point. (Ain't no such thing as a free lynch. Heh.) Two of the surviving Mafiosi aggressively point fingers at each other. Townies come to the conclusion that if one of the pair is Mafia, the other has to be town. They vote to lynch one, comes up Mafia.

Tomorrow: 2 mafiosi, 3 townies. One of the remaining mafiosi is now implicitly trusted by the town. If the townies vote to off one of their own -- as there is a 75% chance they will -- the game ends with a Mafia victory that night. If they vote to lynch the mafioso they don't trust, they are shocked to find that the game DOESN'T END.

Day after tomorrow: 1 trusted mafioso, 2 townies. Finger-pointing ensues, but surviving mafioso points to the fact that he has voted against other Mafia, they have tried to get him lynched, etc. One townie votes against the other, is joined by surviving mafioso, game over.

Even if there are only two left, it's still probably worth one of their lives to insinuate the other into the town's trust.

[brewha]

We lynch Lakai or brewha, hit Mafia: 100%
We lynch Fretful or Kat, hit Mafia: Some number <100% but >50%
We lynch Fretful or Kat, hit town: 50%
We lynch Lakai or brewha, hit town: 33%

---------------------------------------------------

Thoughts?

I like it and see no flaws in your assumptions.

Here's what I propose. Take option one. I'll let you SBS and Queuing decide between me and Lakai as the victim. If you pick Lakai and find him scum, we win because we have a 50/50 between Kat and Fretful and one mistake to make. If you pick me and find me to be town, we use our mistake. But, I hope that will be enough to sway the town to lynch Lakai and Fretful.

If you pick me and find me scum, then it would be wise to assume that Lakai and Fretful are town and that Kat is the last mafia. Likewise if you find Lakai town, You can assume that me and Kat are scum.



I was thinking it over and I really don't like the idea of letting brewha slide because his behavior is too crazy. The only person to be FOSed besides Pygmy was me and by brewha. For the whole game I've been assuming that the mafia could be really slick, but maybe they aren't?

I would like to see brewha die today. If he turns up town I'd go after Kat or Fretful.

No one has come up with a convincing case against anyone right now, so if brewha is not mafia I will be completely lost. The remaining mafia player will be a bitch to catch.

Vote brewha
(color discluded by me as to not double vote me)

Seriously that sounded bad. I can't be the only one to think it. If I turn up town, lynch Fretful or Kat? That is ignoring everything I have said (which doesn't surprise me in your situation). But, that has also completely dismissed what SBS has said. I agree that there is a possibility (in the eyes of the town) that both you and I are mafia. But there is no way we are both town. So, if I get lynched and come up town you should be next.

I never said I should be given a pass because of my crazy behavior. I don't think anyone else has given me a pass either. I'm fine with my death if it is followed by yours and Fretful's.

[brewha]

I don't know. If they're both Mafia, they've played these last few days brilliantly -- but it's fair to say that the Mafia has been playing brilliantly all along, and deliberately distancing themselves from one another so that they can gain the town's trust is very likely the winning strategy at this point. I'd also like to float the possibility that there are actually three of them left, and Pygmy Rugger's "slip" was actually a calculated piece of disinformation; I think it was obvious after we lynched hocow that Pygmy Rugger was next in line no matter what, and plausible that they have planned this overnight.

If there are three left, the endgame could look like this:

Yesterday: 4 mafiosi, 5 townies. Pygmy Rugger, the chosen sacrifice, implies that there are only three mafiosi; other people seize on this. Pygmy Rugger is lynched, with a vote from one or more of his fellow mafiosi, but the town has taken the bait.

Today: 3 mafiosi, 4 townies. The townies believe they have a free lynch at this point. (Ain't no such thing as a free lynch. Heh.) Two of the surviving Mafiosi aggressively point fingers at each other. Townies come to the conclusion that if one of the pair is Mafia, the other has to be town. They vote to lynch one, comes up Mafia.

Tomorrow: 2 mafiosi, 3 townies. One of the remaining mafiosi is now implicitly trusted by the town. If the townies vote to off one of their own -- as there is a 75% chance they will -- the game ends with a Mafia victory that night. If they vote to lynch the mafioso they don't trust, they are shocked to find that the game DOESN'T END.

Day after tomorrow: 1 trusted mafioso, 2 townies. Finger-pointing ensues, but surviving mafioso points to the fact that he has voted against other Mafia, they have tried to get him lynched, etc. One townie votes against the other, is joined by surviving mafioso, game over.

Even if there are only two left, it's still probably worth one of their lives to insinuate the other into the town's trust.


If there were 4 mafia left yesterday they are the dumbest mob ever and should not have made it this far. If any one of Pygmy Rugger, Lakai, SBS, or myself were town. At least one of us has to be if there's only 4 mafia. There is no reason that a townie wouldn't have gotten lynched. Even if all 4 jumped on the same bandwagon, got an innocent townie lynched, and completely blew their cover, they still win. It would be 4 town and 4 mafia. Mafia wins. Sure we know who the remaining mafia are, but they've already won.

I don't buy that there were 4 mafia for a second. Do you expect us to beleive that they would rather lynch one of their own to play shadow games and maybewin a couple of days later when than win while it was within easy reach?

[Queuing]

Ok, so correct me if I am wrong, but we probably have 2 scum left correct? 5 towns? So we can make 1 mistake right? Don't we lose if either pair is both scum?

On preview: brewha, but there were 9 people left yesterday, so the scum couldn't manufacture a lynch all by themselves.

[storyteller0910]

Ok, so correct me if I am wrong, but we probably have 2 scum left correct? 5 towns? So we can make 1 mistake right? Don't we lose if either pair is both scum?


Depends on which option we pick, and whether or not we choose correctly. If there is even a possibility that both brewha and Lakai are scum, though, then my approach falls apart completely. Now Fretful has me worried that this could indeed be the case, but of course if she were Mafia that's what she'd want me to think, and...

Craaaaaap.

[brewha]

4- Pygmy Rugger - (StarvingButStrong, Kat, Queuing, Storyteller)
3- Lakai - (brewha Pygmy Rugger, Pleonast)
1- brewha - (Fretful Porpentine)
1-StarvingButStrong - (Lakai)


To further dimiss Fretful's 4 mafia theory, here's how the voting ended. If anyone that voted for Pygmy Rugger were mafia, their switch would drop PR count to three. So, the 4 mafia are then free to vote for Lakia, myself, or SBS, give one of us 4 votes and win the game.

That didn't happen, so I once again say that everyone that voted for PR is town. So, since we know that Pleonast was town, the only way that there were 4 mafia is if Pygmy Rugger, Lakai, Fretful Porpentine, and myself were the mafia.

Fretful, do you want to rethink a theory that implicates you as mafia?

(on preview) Queuing, you are correct, and that's what this post explains. The mafia couldn't manufactuer a lynch on their own. They would have to join a townsperson in voting for another townsperson. So if Fretful were town and I were town, then the four mafia would join Fretful and string me up. The same if Lakai and SBS were town. But, since we know that Pleonast was town, that means that the at least one of the 4 voters would have to come from Pymgy Rugger's voters, which would have worked out even better for the mafia since it would have dropped his count down to 3.

[Fretful Porpentine]

I don't buy that there were 4 mafia for a second. Do you expect us to beleive that they would rather lynch one of their own to play shadow games and maybewin a couple of days later when than win while it was within easy reach?
No. But I was responding to storyteller's post in which he asked whether there was any way you and Lakai could BOTH be Mafia, and if you both are, another lynch was not within easy reach. Even if you'd all piled onto Lakai's suggestion of StarvingButStrong, you'd still be one vote short of a lynch, and it would be obvious to the remaining townies that all of you were in cahoots.

For what it's worth, I'm not sure I buy this theory at all myself, but I think we need to question all of our assumptions at this point, and the idea that there are exactly two Mafia left is a BIG assumption.

[brewha]

No. But I was responding to storyteller's post in which he asked whether there was any way you and Lakai could BOTH be Mafia, and if you both are, another lynch was not within easy reach. Even if you'd all piled onto Lakai's suggestion of StarvingButStrong, you'd still be one vote short of a lynch, and it would be obvious to the remaining townies that all of you were in cahoots.

For what it's worth, I'm not sure I buy this theory at all myself, but I think we need to question all of our assumptions at this point, and the idea that there are exactly two Mafia left is a BIG assumption.

Assuming that I am mafia, the only way that we'd be short a vote is if no one that was voting for PR voted for SBS. That would leave 4 for SBS, 4 for PR and one for Lakai. But that would also mean that you, Fretful Porpentine, are mafia. Because if anyone from PR voters switched to SBS, that would leave PR with 3 and it would be an easy lynch for the mob.


Esentially, you are saying that if both Lakai and I are mafia, then you are mafia too.

[Fretful Porpentine]

Assuming that I am mafia, the only way that we'd be short a vote is if no one that was voting for PR voted for SBS. That would leave 4 for SBS, 4 for PR and one for Lakai. But that would also mean that you, Fretful Porpentine, are mafia. Because if anyone from PR voters switched to SBS, that would leave PR with 3 and it would be an easy lynch for the mob.


Esentially, you are saying that if both Lakai and I are mafia, then you are mafia too.
No, that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that I think you and Lakai COULD both be Mafia and that you would be playing brilliantly if you were; that it's worth the sacrifice of one player to the Mafia if another can be set up as a trusted townie*; and that it is at least remotely possible that there are three Mafia left alive. (I am making no definite assumptions about the number of surviving Mafia at all, although I think you make some good points in refutation of this part of the argument. I'm simply saying there ARE no safe assumptions.)

* If brewha and Lakai didn't make this particular play, it wouldn't surprise me greatly if Aguecheek and Queuing did, or storyteller0901 and Pygmy Rugger. Absolutely nobody except myself is on my trust list right now.

[brewha]

I just went back and re read the day's events without the assumption that Lakai and Fretful are the only possibilities of scum. I've decided that it is true, my theory could have some holes in it.

If Lakai and Fretful are not the last two remaining scum, then I give up because I have no idea who to vote for besides them. Can I just move? Maybe I can find a nice slumhouse in downtown Chicago where the crime rate isn't quite so high.

[StarvingButStrong]

Option A: Lynch someone from the pair of Lakai and brewha. This is the high risk option.

<snip>

Option B: Lynch someone from the pair of Fretful and Kat

<snip>

Thoughts?




I totally agree with your assumptions. And I understand your pairing & the odds and so forth.

It seems to me the real problem is the B/L situation -- I honestly don't know what to think about Brewha. Yes, Queuing always says he's too talkative/brash/aggressive to be Mafia...but what if Brewha simply *is* naturally talkative, brash, and aggressive as a person? Perhaps he simply isn't able to adopt a quiet/UTR sort of behavior?

OTOH, it's not like I have plentiful evidence for Lakai being town.

I see it as a coin flip situation on that pair for which is the Mafia -- and then there's the possibility that neither one is. (I just can't buy that both of them might be.)

Since we don't have that 'both are town' possibility, I vote we should turn our attention first to Fretful & Kat.

In fact, I vote we should kill BOTH of them, either one today, the other tomorrow, regardless of the verdict on today's kill.

If both of them are mafia, we win!

At worst, we will definitely kill one Mafia and use up our last 'free' townie lynch. Which means we'll be back to picking between Brewha and Lakia, winning or losing on that lynch.

Which is the same choice we have now, but this way we have the hope that something said during the next two days (or some newly dug up evidence from past posts) will let us make the choice between Lakai and Brewha on better than a coin flip basis.


So, that's my vote. I don't have a strong opinion on which of Fretful or Kat to go after first, if you or Queuing do, I'll go along.

[StarvingButStrong]

Mashing some short replies together, since I'm posting way too much lately:

I'm entirely on board with this as long as if you lynch me tomorrow, you lynch Lakai the following day. We still get one town lynch, so if my theory is correct, the town still wins.

See, the problem with this is what if you are BOTH town? We've had some pretty memorable fights between townies, haven't we?

If you are town, you are basically asking the rest of us to believe you are right in your idea that Lakai is Mafia. I don't meant this to be offensive, but you've been wrong before you know. (I suspect all of us have voted for a townie lynch at least once in the game.) So if you are wrong about Lakai, then that's the end of the game, Mafia win.

At the moment, I'm not willing to bet the entire game on your opinion of Lakai.


My plan for today still involves digging into what happened the previous times Pgymy was under suspicion.

Well, I did, but I didn't spot anything even slightly interesting. Full disclosure: I didn't reread any of Day 2. ::shudder::

I noticed that Pygmy voted for other Mafia twice, for FlyingCowOfDoom on Day 3 and Aguecheek on Day 5. Both cases when his 'target' was in no real danger. However the only vote Pygmy cast for any of the seven living was for Queuing, so no joy there.



My basic reason for going after fretful over Lakai, brewha or Kat is due to the votes for PR. Kat voted early for PR, and left the vote there. The previous few days both Storyteller and myself had voted for PR. This leads me to think that if scum was going to try to vote for scum they would have voted for someone who didn't already have 2 townies on his tail. Not saying this is a for sure thing by any means, but its a check in her favour in my mind.


Okay, I can see that reasoning.


This could very easily change, and the more he talks the more I want to lynch him, but that is not a very good reason to lynch right now.

::giggle:: I sort of feel the same way.

Actually, that ties into a reason I was leaning towards Kat as mafia: she's doing a good job of keeping her mouth shut. But, of course, Under The Radar is a strategy that could be used by either town or mafia.


Sure, it doesn't sound crazy when you say it.

I 100% agree. That's why I was going crazy yesterday, because people apparently didn't understand that.


The difference, though, is that you said "We all have to vote together AND it has to be for the guy I WANT IT TO BE." Because, apparently, you weren't willing to consider that Pygmy might be Mafia, too, even though you HAD to know there was more than one left in the game.

As in, once again you never seem to even entertain the idea that YOU MIGHT BE WRONG. Despite the fact that you already have been on multiple occasions.

Standing up and screaming "I am right! I am right! Everyone else must change their opinions just because *I* say so!" is not a very persuasive argument. Pretty much the opposite, in fact.


I don't know. If they're both Mafia, they've played these last few days brilliantly -- but it's fair to say that the Mafia has been playing brilliantly all along, and deliberately distancing themselves from one another so that they can gain the town's trust is very likely the winning strategy at this point. I'd also like to float the possibility that there are actually three of them left, and Pygmy Rugger's "slip" was actually a calculated piece of disinformation; I think it was obvious after we lynched hocow that Pygmy Rugger was next in line no matter what, and plausible that they have planned this overnight.



Wow. It's an amazing theory. But...I just can't believe that people capable of planning and flawlessly carrying out something like that are spending their time playing this game. They ought to out there taking over the world. :D

I guess what I mean is, if the Mafia are THAT good, they're going to win. And they'll deserve it, IMHO.

[brewha]

The concensus seem to be that the more I talk to more I look like a loon. So I'll keep this short. Everytime I feel that I'm on to something, Queuing seems to be the first to shoot it down. He really hated the idea of voting for Pleonast's list. He really seems to be against lynching Lakai. I haven't trusted him most of the game and i see no reason to start now.

I'm going with my original plan, I'm following Pleonast. His top three were Pygmy Rugger, Lakai and Queuing. He was right on Pygmy Rugger and I believe he is right on Lakai.

Vote Lakai

[Fretful Porpentine]

I, too, am starting to feel like they deserve it, but that doesn't mean I won't go down fighting :)

[Queuing]

SBS, I don't really get why you think we should kill both Kat and Fretful regardless of the outcome. Is it just because you (like me) are getting more and more confused in regards to brewha? And have no strong reading on Lakai either way and there is that nasty cop reading stewing in the back of your mind? So at the very least this buys another day?

Brewha, I am hardly the only one to shoot down your ideas. In fact SBS just wrote pretty much exactly how I feel about you. Your flighty and arrogant.

So if I am reading this correctly, SBS you want to go for Kat and I want to go for Fretful. I guess good ol' storyteller should weigh in now :)

[storyteller0910]

SBS, I don't really get why you think we should kill both Kat and Fretful regardless of the outcome. Is it just because you (like me) are getting more and more confused in regards to brewha? And have no strong reading on Lakai either way and there is that nasty cop reading stewing in the back of your mind? So at the very least this buys another day?

Brewha, I am hardly the only one to shoot down your ideas. In fact SBS just wrote pretty much exactly how I feel about you. Your flighty and arrogant.

So if I am reading this correctly, SBS you want to go for Kat and I want to go for Fretful. I guess good ol' storyteller should weigh in now :)

Yeah, I'm composing in another window... gimme a sec. Good god, this game's going to get me fired.

[Queuing]

Honest I know the difference between "your" and "you're". I hate when people do that, and yet there it is, staring at me, mocking me.

[storyteller0910]

At worst, we will definitely kill one Mafia and use up our last 'free' townie lynch. Which means we'll be back to picking between Brewha and Lakia, winning or losing on that lynch.

Which is the same choice we have now, but this way we have the hope that something said during the next two days (or some newly dug up evidence from past posts) will let us make the choice between Lakai and Brewha on better than a coin flip basis.


But here's the problem. If we agree right now to lynch Fretful and then Kat, or vice versa, no matter the outcome, then unless they are both Mafia we will arrive two days hence with the same problem we have right now - brewha? Or Lakai? And if we settle on a course of action that firmly, we're not going to get any new information; why should anyone say anything at all, if our lynch target is set in advance?

I keep writing and deleting everything, because I can't come up with any plan that makes any sense. If we lynch Fretful today, and she is town, it is very, very likely that Kat is Mafia, and vice versa. But if that's not the case, and brewha and Lakai are both Mafia - or if, deity of your choice forbid - I am wrong about Queuing or StarvingbutStrong - that approach dooms us.

We still have time to make this decision, right? Until Friday, I think? Given that this is likely the most important Day of the game so far (to be matched only by the next one or two), I think we should hold off on a final decision. Let's keep talking, and see if anything might pop up that could lead us to a more logical lynch.

[brewha]

Brewha, I am hardly the only one to shoot down your ideas. In fact SBS just wrote pretty much exactly how I feel about you. Your flighty and arrogant.



Man, that sucks. Just when you get all ready to personally insult me you get thwarted by a homonymn. I've said it before, as long as people agree with you, you're all friendly and nice. Once they disagree, you get all pissy and whiny.

The only person I trust is Pleonast. I'm following his list. I encourage other town to do the same.

I'll come back and check on this tomorrow. Good day, sirs.

[NAF1138]

We still have time to make this decision, right? Until Friday, I think?


Yup, Friday 12:45 Pacific. Just shy of 48 hours from now.

[Queuing]

Oh yes we have time. Personally I would like to hear from Kat as well. Fretful has come in and done his defence. I wouldn't mind hearing one from all the others as well.

I agree with you storyteller, and see no benefit to already deciding what tomorrows lynch would be. Nor do I get why SBS would want them both dead.

Our biggest worry seems to be that one of the pairs is both scum. Perhaps we should give some thought to which pair is more likely to be scum together. Then lynch one from that pair?

[storyteller0910]

Man, that sucks. Just when you get all ready to personally insult me you get thwarted by a homonymn. I've said it before, as long as people agree with you, you're all friendly and nice. Once they disagree, you get all pissy and whiny.

The only person I trust is Pleonast. I'm following his list. I encourage other town to do the same.

I'll come back and check on this tomorrow. Good day, sirs.

I have to go home now, myself, and have a choreography meeting tonight, and then there will be Lost. This means that unless I manage to sneak in a post between the one and the other, I'll be away for a couple of hours and possibly until tomorrow morning.

I resolve to continue thinking about things. For what it's worth, if the deadline were in five minutes I would at this moment vote for brewha. The wild fluctuation of trust / mistrust, the half-baked accusations and whatnot... they confuse things, make it hard to have a productive discussion. His behavior is so suspicious as to pass through unsuspicious all the way back into suspcious, if that sentence makes sense.

[Kat]

You know, the more I reread the last couple of pages, the more confused I get.

My current suspicion list is (most to least):
brewha
Lakai/Fretful Porpentine
StarvingButStrong
storyteller
Queuing
me

I'd really rather vote for brewha, but that's pretty worthless if no one else is going to vote for him. If I throw out the Town read on Lakai like brewha wants me to do, I'm more suspicious of Lakai than I am of Fretful, based on posting history. If I don't throw out the Town read, I'm more suspicious of Fretful.

If storyteller is right on his pair theory, then I am of course more suspicious of Fretful than of myself, and a bit more suspicious of brewha than Lakai.

I don't know what kind of defense you want to see from me, because I've not really seen any reasoning given for suspicions against me, except for:
From SBS: Leaning Mafia:
Kat (because I like the idea of at least one mafia voting for PR, and I think the others are town.)
Um, okay. I guess I should've switched to brewha, then? Except that then everyone else would be suspicious of me.
From SBS: Actually, that ties into a reason I was leaning towards Kat as mafia: she's doing a good job of keeping her mouth shut.
That's a valid reason for suspicion, I'll give ya that. Except that I'm not the lowest posting person in the thread. I've got more posts than SBS, storyteller, Lakai and Fretful Porpentine (whether any of them are actually useful posts, I couldn't tell you). I've slowed down a bit lately, for 2 reasons: it's taking me longer than before to go through who's said what (which I bet you guys understand) and because some of my previously-devoted-to-Internet time has been taken over by planning-for-vacation time (I mentioned that back at the beginning of this thread, it's less than 2 weeks away!).
In 3568 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8543642&postcount=3568), Queuing says: My gut is also finding Kat suspicious.
Fair enough, I've voted on gut feeling myself. But there's not much that can be done to argue against your gut (unless giving it a beer works). Post something for me to refute and I'll give it a shot.

Or I could just role claim....
I am...





the Vigilante Detective.
That's right. I'm Batman.

For now, I'm gonna vote brewha.

[NAF1138]

Thought I would throw a vote count at y'all before I went home for the day:

2- brewha - (Lakai, Kat)
1- Fretful Porpentine - (Queuing)
1- Lakai - (brewha)


May not look like much, but with only 7 of you left that is over half the votes in town accounted for.

[brewha]

So, I'm winning in votes. I'm at the point where I'm done trying to push the obvious on you guys. I'm leaving my vote on Lakai. If he doesn't get lynched, and I live through the night, I'm going to vote for him again tomorrow.

Ever hear of Occam's Razor? By far the simplest explanation of why mafia got lynched despite the town being split is that Lakai, the person with the next highest vote count, was mafia as well. Sure we can hypothesize on situations where if someone changed votes then someone else would change and then that would cause someone else to change... blah blah blah. There is a chance that all the planets aligned and Lakai isn't mafia. But, I believe that the simplest explanation is the correct one.

The truth of the matter is that we were lucky, damn lucky, to have the town split between two mafia. Any other situation would have resulted in a town lynch yesterday.

If you guys really want Lakai to live another day, then vote someone else. I'm just some crazy loon trying to get a win for the town. If you really still believe that a beat cop reading on someone who could have a 50% chance of being the Godfather is gospel, than the town has been outplayed and the mafia deserve this win.

[Queuing]

So, I'm winning in votes. I'm at the point where I'm done trying to push the obvious on you guys.

Are you this arrogant in real life?

[brewha]

Are you this arrogant in real life?
Hey, nice work man. You spelled all the words correctly this time. You deserve a gold star!

[Queuing]

Hey, nice work man. You spelled all the words correctly this time. You deserve a gold star!

I will take that as a yes.

Can I ask one thing? You said you are done, you have voted, so does that mean we won't here from you again until the day is over?

[StarvingButStrong]

C'mon, guys -- chill a little. This is just a game, remember? No one really dies, and you don't get so much as a gold star for winning. It's not worth getting angry with each other over.


Queuing, you asked about why I suggest killing both of Fretful & Kat before turning to Lakai/Brewha. Two reasons:

First, as you managed to gather from my disjointed post, I was just trying to put off having to decide between Lakai and Brewha, when I honestly haven't an inkling for which is more likely Mafia. Maybe we will learn something else in the next couple of 'days' to fix that.


Second, I am a little worried that we might fall into the trap of becoming subconsciously sure that we will find the Mafia split between Storyteller's two duo. As in, say we lynch Fretful from the second duo, and she turns out to be Mafia. Great! But at that point aren't we likely to feel (a little) 'okay, that's the mafia from that duo, now is the other Brewha or Lakia?'

When, of course, it's quite possible that both Brewha and Lakia are townies, and we'll lose going after both of them while ignoring Kat.

We don't face the same problem if we go after the Brewha/Lakia first - I think we're agreed it's highly unlikely that both of them are Mafia. So maybe we should go after one of those two, first? But then we're left with that choice....

And, after reading Storyteller's response to my idea, I can see that he's right, we shouldn't put a lynching order into play -- wait and see what develops.

You know what? Storyteller's advice all the game has been sound, way sounder than mine. I will cast my vote for whoever Storyteller says -- even if it's me. :D

[StarvingButStrong]

Thanks for posting, Kat!


I don't know what kind of defense you want to see from me, because I've not really seen any reasoning given for suspicions against me, except for:
From SBS: Leaning Mafia:
Kat (because I like the idea of at least one mafia voting for PR, and I think the others are town.)
Um, okay. I guess I should've switched to brewha, then? Except that then everyone else would be suspicious of me.
From SBS: Actually, that ties into a reason I was leaning towards Kat as mafia: she's doing a good job of keeping her mouth shut.
That's a valid reason for suspicion, I'll give ya that. Except that I'm not the lowest posting person in the thread. I've got more posts than SBS, storyteller, Lakai and Fretful Porpentine (whether any of them are actually useful posts, I couldn't tell you). I've slowed down a bit lately, for 2 reasons: it's taking me longer than before to go through who's said what (which I bet you guys understand) and because some of my previously-devoted-to-Internet time has been taken over by planning-for-vacation time (I mentioned that back at the beginning of this thread, it's less than 2 weeks away!).

Fair enough. The 'keeping her mouth shut' was only in reference to this 'day'. And as for one of the PR voters being Mafia, that comes from the idea that the Mafia would spread themselves out to be less noticable. Of course, with three mafia and four people garnering votes, well, I'm not going to seriously say one ofthe PR voters HAS to be Mafia.

As I've been saying all through this day, I don't have more that tiny wisps of reasons to vote for anyone. Mainly I was pointing out reasons for you because others had already taken care of pointing at Brewha, Lakai, and Fretful. Equal opportunity suspicion, that's me.




Or I could just role claim....
I am...

the Vigilante Detective.
That's right. I'm Batman.



Glad to meet you. I'm the Great Pumpkin, as I revealed many days ago. :D

[Kat]

As I've been saying all through this day, I don't have more that tiny wisps of reasons to vote for anyone. Mainly I was pointing out reasons for you because others had already taken care of pointing at Brewha, Lakai, and Fretful. Equal opportunity suspicion, that's me.

Hell, if we're really bored, we could look for reasons to suspect Queuing and storyteller. Or the dead people.

Glad to meet you. I'm the Great Pumpkin, as I revealed many days ago. :D

Will you visit the Wayne Pumpkin Patch on Halloween?

[NAF1138]

I will take that as a yes.

Can I ask one thing? You said you are done, you have voted, so does that mean we won't here from you again until the day is over?

HEY BOTH OF YOU! CALM DOWN!

[brewha]

I will take that as a yes.

Can I ask one thing? You said you are done, you have voted, so does that mean we won't here from you again until the day is over?
(bolding mine)

Yeah, I've pretty much given up trying to spread my theories around. I wouldn't have responded at all except that you chose to ignore most of my post and simply insult me instead commenting on what I wrote.

Those homonymns are tricky things!

[storyteller0910]

brewha -

In all sincerity, this:


Yeah, I've pretty much given up trying to spread my theories around. I wouldn't have responded at all except that you chose to ignore most of my post and simply insult me instead commenting on what I wrote.


Is not helpful. The fact that I have not agreed with a lot of your arguments, theories, and plans does not mean that I have not read them. I think you will find that every one of my responses to you has focused on the specific points you are making. At this stage of the game, floating theories to get shot down is about the best chance we have of generating some kind of new information, which we need. If you are actually town as you claim, than posting your ideas and theories can only help, no matter what sort of reception they get and even if they aren't adopted immediately. I just think it would be nice if you didn't subtly imply that those of us who don't agree with a given theory are obviously either scum or dumb, because that gets people mad and clouds our ability to consider things reasonably.

My game thoughts follow in a separate post.

[Queuing]

First, as you managed to gather from my disjointed post, I was just trying to put off having to decide between Lakai and Brewha, when I honestly haven't an inkling for which is more likely Mafia. Maybe we will learn something else in the next couple of 'days' to fix that.


Yeah, I am in the exact same situation. Add to that the extreme annoyance I feel towards brewha and I don't completely trust my opinion about that pair.

Second, I am a little worried that we might fall into the trap of becoming subconsciously sure that we will find the Mafia split between Storyteller's two duo. As in, say we lynch Fretful from the second duo, and she turns out to be Mafia. Great! But at that point aren't we likely to feel (a little) 'okay, that's the mafia from that duo, now is the other Brewha or Lakia?

Wouldn't this be true regardless of the duo we choose today? If we went after brewha/lakai and one was scum, wouldn't we feel the other was town? To be honest I see no way out if both of either pair are scum. If the assumptions that storyteller has made are wrong, then I think we will still lose.

We don't face the same problem if we go after the Brewha/Lakia first - I think we're agreed it's highly unlikely that both of them are Mafia. So maybe we should go after one of those two, first? But then we're left with that choice....

Not sure if I agree with this. The only reason I see for believing that lakai and brewha are less likely to be scum is that they have voted for each other constantly. Couple that with the cop reading and the arrogant, crazy behavior of brewha and it could just appear to be them being less likely (if that makes any sense)

That being said, I now think we should do the riskier of the 2 plans. Lets go for broke, and lets follow what I think Storyteller wants to do. Lets choose between Lakai and brewha.

unvote fretful porpentine

Due to my history, I feel that I should NOT decide between these two. Brewha annoys me to no end, and I feel he has done nothing useful for the town but post plans that he claims are foolproof except for that fact that they don't work. However I still think he is town. I don't know why, I just do. Even though every post he makes is more and more arrogant and useless.

Lakai. Well if it wasn't for the cop reading I would have no feeling on him at all. This is not good. I have at least some sort of feeling on everyone else. I will try to read the thread today and see if I can come up with something.

We have about 24 hours right?