Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!) [Archive] - Page 2

MadTheSwine

03-28-2007, 01:17 PM

All 3 from the last game of werewolf (mafia). I wonder if that means anything? Is this going to be like survivor all-stars were previous winners had no chance (or players in this case?)

I doubt it will come to that,first night killings have got to be pretty much a stab in the dark.Could be some grudges left over from last game though.
Returning players are :
Captain Carrot- Dead.Who did he anger last game.I don't remember.

chrisk-Very interested observer from last game,chastised by Dnooman for posting too much.

Dnooman-Dead

hocow-Dnooman and I decided to eat her.

Kat-Survived

MadTheSwine-Thats me.

Menocchio-Lynched first day

One and Only Wanderers- Dead

Rysto-Eaten first night at Dnoomans recommendation.

Sturmhauke-Seer from last game,very strong player,seems like he(she?) would have been a target.

Suburban Plankton-Played well,also seemed a likely target for a first night killing.

Winston Smith-Relentlessly pursued by MadThe Swine,if he is a scum, they would have left me alone as it would have definately put the FOS squarely on him.

Dnooman seemed to ruffle some feathers last game.Probably a revenge kill.

CaerieD

03-28-2007, 01:19 PM

Excellent point. Perhaps the Mafia is taking a page from the Werewolves' book and killing off players who are trying to compile information for the rest of us?

So, who wants to take over spreadsheet duty?
Well I was going to offer to do it, but after that rousing endorsement of the position I'm having my doubts.

I am somewhat suspicious of Autolycus, but I think I'll hold off on voting just yet.

Queuing

03-28-2007, 01:26 PM

I doubt it will come to that,first night killings have got to be pretty much a stab in the dark.Could be some grudges left over from last game though.
Returning players are :
Captain Carrot- Dead.Who did he anger last game.I don't remember.

chrisk-Very interested observer from last game,chastised by Dnooman for posting too much.

Dnooman-Dead

hocow-Dnooman and I decided to eat her.

Kat-Survived

MadTheSwine-Thats me.

Menocchio-Lynched first day

One and Only Wanderers- Dead

Rysto-Eaten first night at Dnoomans recommendation.

Sturmhauke-Seer from last game,very strong player,seems like he(she?) would have been a target.

Suburban Plankton-Played well,also seemed a likely target for a first night killing.

Winston Smith-Relentlessly pursued by MadThe Swine,if he is a scum, they would have left me alone as it would have definately put the FOS squarely on him.

Dnooman seemed to ruffle some feathers last game.Probably a revenge kill.
So which one was it? Random? Or revenge killing? It can't just be coincidence that the people who have played before got killed.

If its the latter should we then also kill one of the returning players?

FlyingCowOfDoom

03-28-2007, 01:26 PM

Or at least N-1 Masons.We know that 2 <= N <= 6.

The Rules (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8399889&postcount=72)

Seeing as how Autolycus is talking like a mobster, I think I'm gonna have to go ahead at vote Autolycus.

--FCOD

Autolycus

03-28-2007, 01:36 PM

Seeing as how Autolycus is talking like a mobster, I think I'm gonna have to go ahead at vote Autolycus.
--FCOD

Only a stupid mobster would talk like a mobster, see? You would think that, right. But he would know that you think you know that, see? So a smart mobster would pretend to talk like a mobster so that everyone would think he was actually only pretending to be a mobster, see? But them's not the only options. He could only be pretending to be a smart mobster that's pretending to talk like a mobster to fool people into thinking he's not a mobster, but he actually is a mobster pretending to engage everyone in some clever double talk, see? Dont forget he could actually be stupid and blowing his cover, ya never knows. For all we's know, he could be just some dumb kid muckin' up the works.

While you're thinkins that over, I gotta take a trip to the docks and meet my friend Vinnie. He's got a nice catch of fish comin' in thats needs inspectins'

The Understander

03-28-2007, 01:36 PM

I agree that prior players all dying is no coincidence--

But my thought is that the mafioso are a clever lot, and would do this by design to have us all follow this false trail. Since there's way too many players to make a really good guess... I just have to vote to lynch Autolycus for imitating the speech of a bunch of murdering pig-dogs! And I don't care if I'm the third person to do it, I'm town, I've got nothing to fear.

Except a misguided lynching... or the mafia... or the serial killer... or the vigilante...

Um. I'm going to go hide under the couch now.

storyteller0910

03-28-2007, 01:42 PM

Only a stupid mobster would talk like a mobster, see? You would think that, right. But he would know that you think you know that, see? So a smart mobster would pretend to talk like a mobster so that everyone would think he was actually only pretending to be a mobster, see? But them's not the only options. He could only be pretending to be a smart mobster that's pretending to talk like a mobster to fool people into thinking he's not a mobster, but he actually is a mobster pretending to engage everyone in some clever double talk, see? Dont forget he could actually be stupid and blowing his cover, ya never knows. For all we's know, he could be just some dumb kid muckin' up the works.

While you're thinkins that over, I gotta take a trip to the docks and meet my friend Vinnie. He's got a nice catch of fish comin' in thats needs inspectins'

But will he choose the goblet in front of him, or the goblet in front of you?

glee

03-28-2007, 01:42 PM

This game is certainly moving fast. :eek:

I do have a rules query:

- apparently the beat cops only have a 50% chance of being right when they investigate. So what happens if they investigate a Ctizen and get a wrong reading? Do they have a chance of getting Mafia / Serial Killer / Vigilante / Miller / Cop / Doctor / Angel?
It seems a fairly useless ability anyway...

Next I raise a glass to our fallen Citizens.

Having done that, here is my introduction to the game:

Also, FCOD, random votes are always thrown out at the beginning of the game. It's just a way to break the ice.
And in that spirit - lynch glee. I do what random.org tells me to do.

How does this help the town? :confused:
Can't you find a better ice-breaker? :smack:

I nobly resist the temptaion to nominate Smitty back.

Well, I'm certainly not surprised that the Mafia went after previous players -- it's to their advantage to get rid of players who have a feel for the strategy of the game. For the same reason, I'm very surprised that the Vigilante went after a previous player.
I'm also surprised that the Serial Killer would go after an experienced player. They're in an interesting position. They should be playing as if they're on the side of the Town -- after all, the shorter the game is, the better chance they have of surviving to the end and winning.

I agree that both the Serial Killer and the Vigilante should be trying to help the Town, for different reasons. The Vigilante wins if the Town does, while the Serial Killer won't beat the Mafia unless they are rapidly depleted.

Queuing

03-28-2007, 01:44 PM

I am wondering if we can get everyone to say their experience playing this game. Including whether or not they followed the 1st game of werewolf. I know that people can lie, and say they are inexperienced when they could be grand poobahs of mafia, however it could be somewhat useful as data. Or not.

Myself I had never even heard of this game until the thread from RT. It sounded interesting but as I didn't know the game I didn't try to play. I followed that thread, checking it every day. I never did a re-read or anything. I suspected Surbaban Plankton of being a mason, and agreed that Sturm may have been the seer (in the observer thread).

MadTheSwine

03-28-2007, 01:45 PM

So which one was it? Random? Or revenge killing? It can't just be coincidence that the people who have played before got killed.

If its the latter should we then also kill one of the returning players?

What I meant by that is, since it is a crap shoot, why not go after someone who was a thorn in your side from last game.

And yes,I think its likely that one of the returning players is responsible for the death of Dnooman so we should target one of them.Which,of course throws me into the mix,but thats what I believe and I think our chances are better at achieving a good kill targeting one of them rather than just tossing out random votes.

FlyingCowOfDoom

03-28-2007, 01:46 PM

I agree that prior players all dying is no coincidence--Actually, it has to be a coincidence. The Mafia has only killed once. The three separate murders probably had the same motive, but we all know the SK, Vig, and Mafia aren't in cahoots.

But will he choose the goblet in front of him, or the goblet in front of you?Either way, he's a Sicilian, and the Sicilians invented the Mafia! It's a slightly less well-known fact.

--FCOD

MadTheSwine

03-28-2007, 01:46 PM

The Serial Killer wins if either the town or the mafia are defeated...is that correct?

Rysto

03-28-2007, 01:50 PM

As per random.org: Vote Gadarene

chrisk

03-28-2007, 01:52 PM

NAF1138

03-28-2007, 01:52 PM

brewha

03-28-2007, 01:53 PM

Yeah, I was dying to ask this question last night, if there was going to be any differences in the means of death. Oh well.

And seeing Porp's post in preview I too was hoping to have some help from the veterans, at least for me, 'cause I'm a noob and never read the parallel thread from last game.

Here's to you Captain Carrot, dnooman and One and Only Wanderers. ::sniff::

Here's how I interpret this post. (replace all "he" with "she" if applicable)

He's saying that he's a noob. What he means is underestimate me while I kill you in your sleep.

He's saying that he's sad for townie deaths, but he just wants to make sure you think that he is sad a presumed a townie himself.

Me? I was just too happy to have survived the night to have much immediate remorse for our fallen.

Too eary for me to vote, but I'm pointing the FOS at MonkeyMensch

NAF1138

03-28-2007, 01:53 PM

The Serial Killer wins if either the town or the mafia are defeated...is that correct?

SK wins if they make it to the end of the game.

MadTheSwine

03-28-2007, 02:05 PM

Okay, based on an idea that StarvingButStrong had in the werewolf commentary thread, I'm proposing an Open Detection System

Hypothetically, for the purpose of this post, I'm claiming that I'm a cop of some sort. Last night, I investigated Enfant Terrible and found him to be vanilla citizen.

The preceding assertion is not valid in any way, shape, or form, unless I'm a cop of some description. In addition, if I'm a beat cop, my investigations are unreliable, and all investigations are subject to specific distortion. (IE, even if I'm the detective and got that result from ET, he might still be the godfather.)

All other players are encouraged to join in with the ODS and post hypothetical investigation results. I'm not sure how this will end up, but I thought it was worth a try to start. If you don't want me to continue doing this on successive days, yell at me to stop. :)

What??? I don't think that is a good idea at all. Who would that benefit except scum?

FlyingCowOfDoom

03-28-2007, 02:06 PM

Okay, based on an idea that StarvingButStrong had in the werewolf commentary thread, I'm proposing an Open Detection System

Hypothetically, for the purpose of this post, I'm claiming that I'm a cop of some sort. Last night, I investigated Enfant Terrible and found him to be vanilla citizen.

The preceding assertion is not valid in any way, shape, or form, unless I'm a cop of some description. In addition, if I'm a beat cop, my investigations are unreliable, and all investigations are subject to specific distortion. (IE, even if I'm the detective and got that result from ET, he might still be the godfather.)

All other players are encouraged to join in with the ODS and post hypothetical investigation results. I'm not sure how this will end up, but I thought it was worth a try to start. If you don't want me to continue doing this on successive days, yell at me to stop. :)Am I missing something? Didn't you just guarantee your death tonight? I'm new to this game, there are three outcomes as I see it:

1. You're actually a Cop.
2. You're not a Cop, but you're not Mafia either.
3. You're in the Mafia.

If 1 or 2 is true, the Mafia (who know you're not one of them) would kill you, because it doesn't matter to them if you're actually a Cop or not. If 3 is true, you'll be alive tomorrow, in which case we should lynch you then.

I have to be missing something...

--FCOD

chrisk

03-28-2007, 02:06 PM

SK wins if they make it to the end of the game.

But is the end of the game determined once it's clear that the mafia or the citizens must win?

Suppose, like last time, there were 9 players, 6 of whom were confirmed on the side of the citizens.

But... hmm. I guess that if the SK is among the 3 that are suspect mafia, then he's considered to be effectively doomed. (Even though the first night he and any remaining mafiosos can kill two confirmed citizens.) And there doesn't seem to be any way that the SK can hide among the confirmed citizens.

So I can't come up with a theoretical just now. (shrugs) Anybody else know what I'm asking?

glee

03-28-2007, 02:09 PM

Yup. And it's 50/50 each time, not 50% of his answers will be correct.

Maybe useless maybe not. But it's probably better than nothing.

Thanks for the clarification.

I wonder how much 'better than nothing' it is...
Say a beat cop investigates and gets MAFIA!
He tries the same person again next time and gets MAFIA again. There's still a 25% chance it's a citizen.
I suppose the two beat cops could investigate the same person - but if they get contradictory answers, they still don't know which is right...

Rysto

03-28-2007, 02:09 PM

Okay, based on an idea that StarvingButStrong had in the werewolf commentary thread, I'm proposing an Open Detection System
I'm not entirely sure about this system. The trouble is, non-Cops are very quickly going to out themselves to the Mafia by making incorrect role claims. Even worse, unless every single person participates, the ODS will give the Mafia a smaller pool of players in which to look for the Cops.

If we do decide to do this, I hope it goes without saying that Cops should never reveal power roles. If you investigate a mason, then you say that they're a vanilla townie. The last thing we want is to give the Mafia ideas of who to kill.

Gadarene

03-28-2007, 02:10 PM

Suburban Plankton

03-28-2007, 02:12 PM

Damn, things are moving fast. I'm going to have to look into taking a leave of absence from work so that I can keep up with the thread.

First things first...RIP Captain Carrot, dnooman and One and Only Wanderers. we hardly knew ye. (Except, of course, that some of us knew you quite well from last time. But that doesn't count. Or does it?)

Certainly a different start from last time. We had the good fortune then of knocking off the big, bad wolf right from the start. this time, we're down three before we even get the ball. I get the feeling that this game is going to be quite a bit more "bloodthirsty", if you know what I mean. Everyone knows what to expect this time around, either because they've been through it once, or because they watched the rest of us. And with the new rules, the bodies are going to be flying fast and furious.

And yes,I think its likely that one of the returning players is responsible for the death of dnooman so we should target one of them.
I can understand the point you make in the first half of that statement, but I don't see how the second half follows. Maybe it's just because I am one of the returning players, but I'd like to have a slightly better reason for lynching someone. Also, if your reasoning is that returning players are being targeted because of their experience, remember that most of the "new" players were following the last game as well, so they also know who the returning players are. They would be just as likely to come to the same conclusion (that dnooman is too dangerous to the Mafia to let live).

We either need to come up with a good reason to lynch someone, or just pick at random (this being the first day). Picking someone because they have or have not played before just strikes me as "wrong".

Now, if you'll all excuse me, I've got a spreadsheet to work on.

MonkeyMensch

03-28-2007, 02:13 PM

Here's how I interpret this post. (replace all "he" with "she" if applicable)

He's saying that he's a noob. What he means is underestimate me while I kill you in your sleep.

He's saying that he's sad for townie deaths, but he just wants to make sure you think that he is sad a presumed a townie himself.

Me? I was just too happy to have survived the night to have much immediate remorse for our fallen.

Too eary for me to vote, but I'm pointing the FOS at MonkeyMensch

I'm a noob in the sense of this being my first game. On the other hand I followed the first game seriously closely, and am a fairly sharp tack (who isn't?)

Anyway, I'm puzzled along with Rysto re the Vig's targeting an experienced player. But other than puzzlement I got nuttin', honey.

glee

03-28-2007, 02:15 PM

Am I missing something? Didn't you just guarantee your death tonight? I'm new to this game, there are three outcomes as I see it:

1. You're actually a Cop.
2. You're not a Cop, but you're not Mafia either.
3. You're in the Mafia.

If 1 or 2 is true, the Mafia (who know you're not one of them) would kill you, because it doesn't matter to them if you're actually a Cop or not. If 3 is true, you'll be alive tomorrow, in which case we should lynch you then.

I have to be missing something...

--FCOD

I think his idea was that we all do it. Then if a cop is killed, we can look back at his claims and see if that gives us information. (It certainly would if he was a Detective, less so - as I just explained - if he was a beat cop.)

However, as Rysto points out, anyone making a claim the Mafia know is untrue (e.g. claiming a Mafioso is a Citizen) simply proves they are not the Detective.
The Mafia want to kill the Detective far more than Citizens, so this doesn't benefit the Town.

P.S. If I were Mafia and only ChrisK claimed, I would leave him alone. Then the Town would lynch him for me.

Rysto

03-28-2007, 02:16 PM

What??? I don't think that is a good idea at all. Who would that benefit except scum?
Ok, here's the theory behind the idea: the Cops need a way to give us their findings without giving away their status. That way, if they're killed before they role-claim, the Town still has the benefit of their information. Typically the idea is that they put subtle hints in a few of their posts.

The suggestion is that a whole bunch of players give out information as if they were a Cop. No one is supposed to act on the information because it's of unknown veracity. If a whole bunch of players do this, then the idea is the Mafia has no idea who is actually a Cop and who is lying to provide cover to a real Cop. If a real Cop is killed, though, it will be easy to see what their information was. As I just posted above, I'm rather unsure of the idea for several reasons.

MadTheSwine

03-28-2007, 02:21 PM

Am I missing something? Didn't you just guarantee your death tonight? I'm new to this game, there are three outcomes as I see it:

1. You're actually a Cop.
2. You're not a Cop, but you're not Mafia either.
3. You're in the Mafia.

If 1 or 2 is true, the Mafia (who know you're not one of them) would kill you, because it doesn't matter to them if you're actually a Cop or not. If 3 is true, you'll be alive tomorrow, in which case we should lynch you then.

I have to be missing something...

--FCOD

I think he is Mafia and trying to get the Doc to waste a protect on him.If 1 or 2 are true, the Mafia will certainly leave him alone and we waste the kill anyhow.Contrary to my earlier post about lynching a returning player,and as much as I think sturmhauke and Winston Smith are Mafia.I gotta cast my vote for chrisk.

glee

03-28-2007, 02:22 PM

I suppose the two beat cops could investigate the same person - but if they get contradictory answers, they still don't know which is right...

Even if they get the same answer, they don't know if it's correct.

No, but their chances are mathematically better. (The same answer twice is 75% likely to be correct, rather than 50% for a single. If the cops get even a single 'bad guy' answer, they can both try the same guy the next day as well...)

...this time, we're down three before we even get the ball.

There's a ball? :eek:
Damn, I need to reread the rules! :)

Fretful Porpentine

03-28-2007, 02:23 PM

Another question about the beat cops, apologies if this has been asked before, but I couldn't find it:
If they are going to get a wrong answer I am going to pick what role they see the player as at random, so I guess they could show up as what they really are.
So ... let's say a beat cop asks to investigate a player who is a Citizen, but this time around the cop is wrong. Can the player under investigation show up as a Citizen anyway (since role assignment is random), or can he or she show up as anything BUT the ordinary Citizen he or she really is? In other words, if the cop is wrong, does this mean that he or she is as likely to be right as anyone else taking a stab in the dark, or always wrong?

I'm still trying to wrap my head around the implications in either case, but it seems to me that if the first rule applies, one should trust the beat cop's results since there is a better than 50-50 chance that they are right; whereas in the second case, I'm not so sure. (It also seems to me that if a player comes up as anything other than a Citizen, it's most likely a false positive -- but my math skills are rusty.)

Smitty

03-28-2007, 02:25 PM

How does this help the town? :confused:
Can't you find a better ice-breaker? :smack:

It takes 10 to lynch. You are in no danger at this point. As I said, it was a random vote, and throwing out random votes at the beginning of the game is a very common thing. You shouldn't take offense. Unless you have something to hide....

Pleonast

03-28-2007, 02:27 PM

I'm not entirely sure about this system. The trouble is, non-Cops are very quickly going to out themselves to the Mafia by making incorrect role claims. Even worse, unless every single person participates, the ODS will give the Mafia a smaller pool of players in which to look for the Cops.

If we do decide to do this, I hope it goes without saying that Cops should never reveal power roles. If you investigate a mason, then you say that they're a vanilla townie. The last thing we want is to give the Mafia ideas of who to kill.Since Beat Cops don't get reliable information, an incorrect claim doesn't necessary reveal the false claimer as an ordinary Citizen. Also, the Detective (or anyone else) could intentionally give false info, to mislead the Mafia. But I don't like the idea anyway: the Mafia are better placed to make use of the information by combining it with what they already know.

Instead, I think it would be better for players to give lists of players they trust and mistrust. Something like this:

I trust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, cowgirl, Flying Cow of Doom, Menocchio
I mistrust: Blaster Master, Kivvik, MonkeyMensch, Zuma

If I turn up in the river with extra-heavy boots, you can easily look at my lists (I'll publish every day) and make your own inferences. The key is that I don't reveal role information, which would help the Mafia target, but still give enough for the survivors to make better-informed lynchings.

This will work best if every Citizen posts their lists. (Mafia don't need too. ;) )

MonkeyMensch

03-28-2007, 02:28 PM

And a follow-up to FP's question: are the wrong answers given to the beat cops equally likely for each role or are they weighted according to number of those roles present in the population?

The Understander

03-28-2007, 02:28 PM

Actually, it has to be a coincidence. The Mafia has only killed once. The three separate murders probably had the same motive, but we all know the SK, Vig, and Mafia aren't in cahoots.

--FCOD

You are correct, FCOD, and I should have been more precise... like you just were. What I meant to say is that there's a high probablility of all three parties choosing the more visible (read: Part One-involved) players. This is what I get for posting on the job... *sigh*

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 02:28 PM

Yup. And it's 50/50 each time, not 50% of his answers will be correct.

Maybe useless maybe not. But it's probably better than nothing.

Well, let's take a look at what kind of numbers a beat cop would get, first, we consider the known roles in the game: scum (includes potential millers), townie (potentially includes gf), doctor, ga, cop, vig, sk, mason. That means, if he's going to be wrong, there's a 1/7 chance for each of the other roles to be chosen for the individual.

Thus, if the result is vanilla townie, then it's clearly more likely that the individual is a townie because he was either right (1/2 * 100%) or he was wrong (1/2 * ~14%), thus, if he was a townie, he has a 50% chance of showing up as one, but if he was something else, he only has about a 7% chance of having shown up as a townie. Further, of those 7 other roles he may have been, clearly most of them (doctor, ga, cop, mason, vig) are in the favor of the town. IOW, if someone shows up as a townie from a beat cop, he's mostly safe and, all other things being equal, should be treated with less suspicion.

Of course, all of that said, chrisk saying such a thing is suspicious to me at this early point in the game, because he's going to either cast suspicion on himself by the mafia if he is not the mafia OR save the mafia from having to choose that individual from being targetted as potentially beneficial role to the town. OTOH, if he's a beat cop, he could have also incorrectly identified a mafia or other beneficial role to be a vanilla townie, however unlikely, OR assuming he actually is a detective, he could feign beat cop and actually use the ability to protect a helpful role. Thus, as FlyingCowofDoom said, I'm curious to see how the mafia will react to this claim, but I don't think it makes sense to lynch him at this point.

Lakai

03-28-2007, 02:29 PM

CaerieD

03-28-2007, 02:29 PM

FlyingCowOfDoom

03-28-2007, 02:31 PM

he could feign beat copI thought Cops don't know if they're a Beat Cop or the Detective...

--FCOD

NAF1138

03-28-2007, 02:33 PM

And a follow-up to FP's question: are the wrong answers given to the beat cops equally likely for each role or are they weighted according to number of those roles present in the population?

Equally likely, which should answer FP's question as well. I am going to feed all the possible roles (as listed at the top of the game) into random.org and get the answer from there, if they are supposed to get a wrong answer. To decide if they get a wrong answer or not I am going to flip a coin and have the call heads or tails. To head off the next question...no they don't know the outcome of the coin flip.

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 02:39 PM

I thought Cops don't know if they're a Beat Cop or the Detective...

--FCOD

Based on one of my questions to NAF earlier, I was under the impression the cops knew whether they were a detective or a beat cop. If I'm wrong, then that changes everything.

Rysto

03-28-2007, 02:40 PM

Rysto - Not a bad strategy. If everyone starts tossing out their "investigations" it'll be completely useless until one of the people who's posted "investigations" has been killed. Once Cops start getting killed, those seemingly useless bits of information will suddenly be a treasure trove.
True, but don't forget my warning. The Mafia knows who is scum and who is Town. So they'll be able to determine false Cops quickly, and thus will have a smaller pool of players in which to search for the real Cops.

NAF1138

03-28-2007, 02:41 PM

Based on one of my questions to NAF earlier, I was under the impression the cops knew whether they were a detective or a beat cop. If I'm wrong, then that changes everything.

They do know what type of cop they are. The beat cop WOULD be useless if they didn't know they might be wrong.

Gadarene

03-28-2007, 02:44 PM

Pleonast:

Instead, I think it would be better for players to give lists of players they trust and mistrust. Something like this:

I trust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, cowgirl, Flying Cow of Doom, Menocchio
I mistrust: Blaster Master, Kivvik, MonkeyMensch, Zuma

If I turn up in the river with extra-heavy boots, you can easily look at my lists (I'll publish every day) and make your own inferences. The key is that I don't reveal role information, which would help the Mafia target, but still give enough for the survivors to make better-informed lynchings.

I like this.

nesta

03-28-2007, 02:50 PM

This is going to be one crazy game. I'm already reading things into every post that I probably shouldn't be.

Random.org told me to vote for hocow, but then when I tried it again it told me to vote for MonkeyMensch, so I don't think it has any better idea of who to vote for than I do. So much for that.

I think we should be careful not to get a bandwagon rolling too early, since that only benefits the mafia. They already have more information than we do, and the only way we can get information is by flushing people out. If we bandwagon someone without a good reason we'll be losing three more people without gaining anything. That is, unless we can get lucky and take down the Godfather in the first shot.

Queuing

03-28-2007, 02:51 PM

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 02:52 PM

Instead, I think it would be better for players to give lists of players they trust and mistrust. Something like this:

I trust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, cowgirl, Flying Cow of Doom, Menocchio
I mistrust: Blaster Master, Kivvik, MonkeyMensch, Zuma

Even though I'm on your list, I agree that this is probably a good idea. This helps cover the idea behind the "everyone claims to be a cop" idea, except here the cops adjust their suspects based on their information, while giving such a large enough pool to hopefully not throw too much suspicion. Further, if the mafia post it, they'll have to be very careful about who they put in the trust and mistrust rows because if we ultimately become suspicious of a particular person as being mafia, we may end up gaining information from the mafia as well when they try to hide their compatriots among the trusted.

MadTheSwine

03-28-2007, 02:53 PM

Damn, things are moving fast. I'm going to have to look into taking a leave of absence from work so that I can keep up with the thread.

First things first...RIP Captain Carrot, dnooman and One and Only Wanderers. we hardly knew ye. (Except, of course, that some of us knew you quite well from last time. But that doesn't count. Or does it?)

Certainly a different start from last time. We had the good fortune then of knocking off the big, bad wolf right from the start. this time, we're down three before we even get the ball. I get the feeling that this game is going to be quite a bit more "bloodthirsty", if you know what I mean. Everyone knows what to expect this time around, either because they've been through it once, or because they watched the rest of us. And with the new rules, the bodies are going to be flying fast and furious.

I can understand the point you make in the first half of that statement, but I don't see how the second half follows. Maybe it's just because I am one of the returning players, but I'd like to have a slightly better reason for lynching someone. Also, if your reasoning is that returning players are being targeted because of their experience, remember that most of the "new" players were following the last game as well, so they also know who the returning players are. They would be just as likely to come to the same conclusion (that dnooman is too dangerous to the Mafia to let live).

We either need to come up with a good reason to lynch someone, or just pick at random (this being the first day). Picking someone because they have or have not played before just strikes me as "wrong".

Now, if you'll all excuse me, I've got a spreadsheet to work on.

Oh,I don't think he was considered to dangerous to live,last game.. he just pissed in too many cornflakes.I was actually surprised he made it as long as he did,considering some of his posts,course I had the advantage of knowing he was a wolf,but someone had a hard-on for him,those could be sturmhauke, chrisk and yourself.
I must say as well,your post is strangely different from the last game,which leads me to believe you have a different role.
Go work on that spreadsheet.

Autolycus

03-28-2007, 02:54 PM

I just gots back from my friend Vinny at the dock helpin' 'im investigate his shipment of tuna, see if anything smells fishy about it, and ya knows, it's likes I's always say: ya gotta trust your guts. Course, it goes withouts sayin that somethin stinks in this here town. But hey, I'm stayins even ifs it means the death of me.

If anyones needs me, I'll be at The Bearded Clam nursin' a Bloody Mary.

Rysto

03-28-2007, 03:01 PM

So I guess I will just throw a vote out there, and go with Sturmhauke. This is because I believe he played the best of the players from last time, and did not get killed.
Wait, what? You want to kill players who played well last game? I'd much prefer that we keep players like him in the game. Any vote right now is essentially random, so basically any vote has the same chance of netting us a Werewolf. However, every player is much more likely to be town than anti-town(anti-town being Mafia or the Serial Killer), so intentionally getting rid of good players seems counter-productive to me.

Well, counter-productive for the Town, anyway.

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 03:02 PM

That said about lists of people I trust and don't, this is largely just gut at this point:

Trust: MadTheSwine, Rysto, chrisk (until he points out someone other than a vanilla townie, then we'll see), Lakai
Mistrust: Autolycus, Queuing, CaerieD, MonkeyMensch

Queuing

03-28-2007, 03:05 PM

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 03:11 PM

Yes, but I find it suspicious that he was not killed while other players who played last game (not as well IMO) were killed, namely doonman. Doonman seemed to have worked out who was who in the werewolf thread, and has been killed. I think it may have been because of this, and one of the former players is responsible for this.

Also how is killing good players only beneficial to the town? Doesn't the mafia and the SK need to play well to win also?

The idea is, considering that the roles have been assigned at random, it is just as likely that a good player from last game is mafia as it is that a new player is mafia. Since the town outnumbers the mafia, killing someone specifically because they were good is just as likely to hurt the town as killing a new player and that results in the town being more likely to lose a good player. I'd say, because of that, we should not suspect the good players from the last game until it's not mostly a random vote like it is now.

chrisk

03-28-2007, 03:13 PM

Rysto

03-28-2007, 03:18 PM

Pleonast

03-28-2007, 03:19 PM

chrisk, that's why I propose the vague lists of trust and mistrust. Benefits of the system you tried, but with fewer drawbacks.

kivvik

03-28-2007, 03:20 PM

Holy moly this thread moves! And we have a hater of palindromes to boot! Three down, so all the bad people are in the game. I'll have more time to fully read after work, so I'll get to swinging the FoS like the rest of you then. Until then, well, gimme three drinks for the fallen, your choice, barkeep.

storyteller0910

03-28-2007, 03:27 PM

Well explained Rysto. A brave move by Chrisk. My feelings are we strike both Chrisk and Enfant Terrible of the list of people to kill at the moment. Not because I believe Chrisk (which I don't really) but because he should now every day right after the killing give us his information. We wait until he sees a bad guy. We kill that bad guy. If he was right well then maybe he is a cop. If not, then he is dead. I know there is only a 50% chance he is right, but what else do we have to go on?

Right now this is a complete crap shoot, so lets act on the little information we do have, regardless of the truth. We can always find that out later. So that leaves us with 32 players to choose from.

So I guess I will just throw a vote out there, and go with Sturmhauke. This is because I believe he played the best of the players from last time, and did not get killed.

I definitely agree with you on Chrisk - in spite of his unaccountable dislike for mozzerella cheese - in particular because I don't think he's actually claiming to be anything at all, just posing a hypothetical, and suggesting that everyone else do the same.

But Enfant Terrible is the only person so far who has really pinged my suspicious-O-meter, mostly because of this post:

Of course.

*does the obligatory two-eyes to two-eyes finger point*

I see that we have the earliest vestiges of theorizing going on, and in my limited experience with this game, players who provide early breakdowns tend to have some sort of special role the rest of us just don't have... hmmm.

This reads to me as an attempt to keep people from analyzing (or, at least, to keep them from posting analysis), for fear of being pegged as scum. Since analysis is really all we have to keep us from making a random choice - and a random choice is really a bad idea, since statistically we are much more likely to choose incorrectly than correctly at this point in the game if we're picking at random - this isn't really a pro-town stance as far as I can see.

I'm no where near suspicious enough to issue an official vote yet, but this seemed worth mentioning.

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 03:38 PM

Now, that is an interesting point. However, given that we have no idea why at least two people were killed(the victims of the Serial Killer and the Vigilante), I don't regard sturmhauke living as being too suspicious at this point. I suspect that dnooman was the Mafia's victim. dnooman was a Werewolf, so he would probably have some insight into the Mafia's thought-patterns. Combine that with the spreadsheet he was going to look after, and that makes him an attractive Mafia target.

I agree with your reasoning behind dnooman's death. As to why the other two targets were players of the last game, I think it may be simply because they had gotten to play before. That is, if it's completely at random, wouldn't it suck to be all amped about finally getting to play, missing the last game and then getting killed in the first night before you even got to participate in any of the voting? I suspect that's the reasoning behind the SK and VIG, at least. Similarly, I expect that reasoning will be moot after this day, and the SK and VIG will go after who they believe are mafia because that's their best chance for winning.

So, perhaps a good tell for who might be a potential SK or VIG would be if one of the people who dies is someone they voted for as mafia, and didn't actually get lynched. Of course, that would be dangerous on their part because, the mafia will know that they'll be keying on them for the best chance of victory and they're probably more dangerous to the mafia than just about any of the other role because if they target individuals who were close to being lynched, they may end up both getting kills on the mafia resulting in potentially as many as three mafia deaths in one day between the lynching and their kills.

Menocchio

03-28-2007, 03:40 PM

cowgirl

03-28-2007, 03:42 PM

My goodness. I take one sick day and look what happens to this thread. I thought I could make it in while y'all were still sleeping off your hangovers ... But now I'm the one with a throbbing head. You all kind of look scummy to me by now ...

Someone pass me a Screaming Viking while I warm up my finger of shame.

MadTheSwine

03-28-2007, 03:44 PM

chrisk

03-28-2007, 03:44 PM

I definitely agree with you on Chrisk - in spite of his unaccountable dislike for mozzerella cheese - in particular because I don't think he's actually claiming to be anything at all, just posing a hypothetical, and suggesting that everyone else do the same.

I do not have a dislike of mozzerella cheese in general. I'm quite fond of mozzerella cheese pizza.

On my spaghetti? Not so much.

:)

Pleonast

03-28-2007, 03:52 PM

But Enfant Terrible is the only person so far who has really pinged my suspicious-O-meter, mostly because of <snip>Hmm. I second this. And since I'm shooting from the hip, I'll go ahead and shoot: Unvote kivvik; vote Enfant Terrible.

I trust: storyteller0910, Blaster Master, Chrisk, Gadarene.
I mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Queuing.

I mistrust Q for his proposal to remove ET from the lynching list. My trust is list is those who I agree with so far. :)

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 03:52 PM

Vote Sturmhauke

He, as well as MadtheSwine, had masterful moves last game. Those two, along with dnooman, would be first to go were I scum.

Is his survival really that suspicious? No. The scum may not have been as impressed by him as I was, or they may have chosen randomly.

But it's a strike against him, which is more than I'm feeling for any other player right now. (Save Mad, but I want to back up Queing since I had the same impulse and he's picking up flack for it).

I don't think that's good enough reason. As has been noted, all three deaths last night were of players from the previous game, and two of them (I think) had important roles. Perhaps the mafia left him alive precisely for the reason that they thought people would be suspicious, and it's also no surprise he passed the SK and VIG because of his excellent play last game. Either way, I can't imagine that he'll get killed tonight, because if he isn't mafia, because of his previous experience casting suspicion, they'll let him live to draw suspicion away from them and if he's not mafia, they'll probably wait at least one or two nights to whack him when he starts to become a thorn in their side... assuming he's not mafia, of course.

NAF1138

03-28-2007, 03:53 PM

I am planning on posting a vote count EITHER if there is a player with more than 7 votes, OR once every 24 hours if no one has gotten than many votes in a 24 hour period.

But feel free to request one before then if you guys feel you need it.

MonkeyMensch

03-28-2007, 03:54 PM

Ok. A little analysis on game composition. At the end of the rules NAF says, "because this game is SO big..." I'm going with numbers up near the maxima for each of the roles.
Mafia - There may be as many as 10 of them.
I'd say 9-10.
Godfather - The head mafia member.
You know there's a Godfather just like there's a Santa Claus.
The Millers- There can be up to 2 millers.[quote]
Maybe 0-2 Millers, more below.
[quote]Cops - There can be up to 3 cops.
Given the high kill rate of this game the future's pretty dim without all 3 there. I'd say 2 Beat Cops and a Detective.
Serial Killer
Definitely present.
Vigilante
Definitely present.
Masons - There may be up to 6 masons.
Say there were 5 or 6 originally, now 4 or 5.
The Doctor
There's gotta be a doc.
Guardian Angel
Maybe, maybe not.

Since NAF said that not all of the roles need appear I'd say the most likely to be missing are the GA, followed by the Millers. The GA is a one shot deal and the lack of protection for one night wouldn't hurt too bad. As for the Millers I having trouble seeing where their blocking is really crucial unless they can block a killing and get that info out. Probably there's 2 but I wouldn't be surprised at none, neither.

So out of 35 remaining that leaves 25ish citizens, 1 SK, and the rest mafiosi.

CaerieD

03-28-2007, 03:54 PM

Trust: Menocchio.

Distrust: Enfant Terrible. There are just lots of different things that are adding up to make me suspicious. I'm somewhat suspicious of Autolycus, too, but I can't tell if he's scum and baiting or just really sadistic.

Queuing

03-28-2007, 03:59 PM

Since this seems to be the flavour in this game:

Don't Trust: Sturmhauke, Gaderene, pimaspinner

Trust: Pleonast, Chrisk

Thats about all I got.

Gadarene

03-28-2007, 04:03 PM

Don't Trust: Sturmhauke, Gaderene, pimaspinner

Will it make you trust me more or less if I point out that you misspelled my name? :)

As for me, initial impressions:

Trust: Pleonast, MonkeyMensch, Rysto, Blaster Master, storyteller0910

Mistrust: chrisk, sturmhauke, Autolycus, Enfant Terrible

I'm weighing the rest of you. You weigh a lot.

glee

03-28-2007, 04:09 PM

It takes 10 to lynch. You are in no danger at this point. As I said, it was a random vote, and throwing out random votes at the beginning of the game is a very common thing. You shouldn't take offense. Unless you have something to hide....

Ah, but the Chinese have a saying: 'in a lynching of 10 votes, the first vote is the most important'!

I realise we have very little to go on at this point, but wouldn't analysing posts be slightly better than randomness?

... Also, the Detective (or anyone else) could intentionally give false info, to mislead the Mafia.

Yes, but the whole point of the idea is that if the Detective is killed, we can lynch his suspects confidently. Otherwise where's the benefit?

Well, let's take a look at what kind of numbers a beat cop would get, first, we consider the known roles in the game: scum (includes potential millers), townie (potentially includes gf), doctor, ga, cop, vig, sk, mason. That means, if he's going to be wrong, there's a 1/7 chance for each of the other roles to be chosen for the individual.

Thus, if the result is vanilla townie, then it's clearly more likely that the individual is a townie because he was either right (1/2 * 100%) or he was wrong (1/2 * ~14%), thus, if he was a townie, he has a 50% chance of showing up as one, but if he was something else, he only has about a 7% chance of having shown up as a townie. Further, of those 7 other roles he may have been, clearly most of them (doctor, ga, cop, mason, vig) are in the favor of the town. IOW, if someone shows up as a townie from a beat cop, he's mostly safe and, all other things being equal, should be treated with less suspicion.

That's excellent!
And if two beat cops (or one beat cop asking twice) get the same result, then it is very likely to be true (because the odds of two false answers being the same are very low).

MadTheSwine

03-28-2007, 04:09 PM

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 04:10 PM

Since NAF said that not all of the roles need appear I'd say the most likely to be missing are the GA, followed by the Millers. The GA is a one shot deal and the lack of protection for one night wouldn't hurt too bad. As for the Millers I having trouble seeing where their blocking is really crucial unless they can block a killing and get that info out. Probably there's 2 but I wouldn't be surprised at none, neither.

So out of 35 remaining that leaves 25ish citizens, 1 SK, and the rest mafiosi.

If I interpretted what NAF said, if a miller targets a mafia, and there are x mafia members, then the miller has a 1/x chance of preventing the mafia strike that night.

At this point, I largely agree with your analysis, and think the GA and miller roles are the least likely to be present, except I was leaning more toward the miller role and less toward the GA role.

What I'm most worried about is the miller blocking the doctor or cops; I'm also worried if they accidently block the SK or VIG, because that's one less pro-town kill. If the miller does block a mafia, and there's 9 or 10 mafia, that still means there's about an 90% chance that the mafia kill will go through. Thus, at this point, it doesn't look like the miller role is going to be useful until we have a stronger sense of who is mafia so they can target them, otherwise, a random miller target seems to be more hurtful to the town.

Similarly, the GA role is only going to be useful for later in the game when a key role feels compelled to out himself and needs protection. But it will also lend itself to a great amount of abuse by the mafia, if one of them can claim it to try to thwart the doctor from "wasting" his protection on that key role.

IOW, at this point, it doesn't really matter if either of those roles exist or not, because if the miller is using his power, he's more likely to hurt the town, and if the GA uses it, he's wasting it.

Hockey Monkey

03-28-2007, 04:13 PM

At this point in the game I....

Don't Trust: The whole lot of you's guys! :p

I'm pointing my FOS at FlyingCowOfDoom, but I'm not ready to toss out an official vote just yet. No particular reason other than a FlyingCowOfDoom has got to be bad right? Right?

Winston Smith

03-28-2007, 04:14 PM

Trust: Rysto

Mistrust: sturmhauke(Strange he wasn't killed,I would have voted to kill him if i were Mafia) Winston Smith(I think the Mafia left me alone for Winstons benefit,had I been killed,Winston dies) chrisk(Wants information) Sub Plank (strange post)

That's the second time you've steered suspicion in my direction in two pages, pisan. Do it again, and I'l have your kneecaps broken. Capice? :D

Seriously, though, what possible reason could you have for being suspicious of me?

MonkeyMensch

03-28-2007, 04:18 PM

If I interpretted what NAF said, if a miller targets a mafia, and there are x mafia members, then the miller has a 1/x chance of preventing the mafia strike that night.
Thank you. I remember reading that rule, not understanding it and promptly putting it out of mind. It makes sense now.

CaerieD

03-28-2007, 04:27 PM

You trust Menocchio for what reason? Two more scum here folks.

Kill them when I am dead.

Suspicious that you'd jump on this when no one else is giving reasons for why they trust who they trust, isn't it? Planning cement shoes for us, are you?

I trust Menocchio mostly because I agree with the thinking that he's shown to this point, which has been a decent strategy on behalf of the Citizens.

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 04:27 PM

That's excellent!
And if two beat cops (or one beat cop asking twice) get the same result, then it is very likely to be true (because the odds of two false answers being the same are very low).
To correct my numbers, if a beat cop investigates a vanilla townie, then there's a 56.25% probability that he shows up as a vanilla townie (50% for being right, and 1/8 of 50% chance if it's random). Similarly, if he investigates a non-vanilla townie (say a mafia), there's only a 6.25% chance that he'll show up as a townie, but a 56.25% chance that he'll show up as mafia.

That is, if a beat cop shows up someone as a vanilla townie, especially since there's so many of them, it's highly unlikely that they're anything else, it's only if they show up as something unexpected like VIG or SK (where there's only one) that it is suspicious and warrants another night of investigating. To a beat cop, if someone shows up SK two nights in a row, then he almost certainly is because the chance of that if he isn't is less than 0.4%

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 04:35 PM

Trust: Rysto

Mistrust: sturmhauke(Strange he wasn't killed,I would have voted to kill him if i were Mafia) Winston Smith(I think the Mafia left me alone for Winstons benefit,had I been killed,Winston dies) chrisk(Wants information) Sub Plank (strange post)

At this point, I can understand the reasoning behind your mistrusts (even if I don't agree with them all), but your mistrust of Winston Smith is puzzling to me. How would leaving you alone benefit Winston? And if it will, who's to say you won't be targetted tonight?

Aguecheek

03-28-2007, 05:08 PM

Jeezus, this is moving way faster than I'd thought. Um. You're all suspicious.

Nothing else I can do right now. I'll be able to reread and make more concrete opinions later on tonight, though.

cowgirl

03-28-2007, 05:39 PM

Rysto

03-28-2007, 05:48 PM

If nobody provides analysis, the Town has nothing to base its decisions on, and we're dead meat.

CaerieD

03-28-2007, 05:52 PM

If we don't analyze, we're just lynching randomly and will get killed off one-by-one. Or, well, three-by-three. There's a tricky strategy to it, though, because if you analyze too well and become too much of an asset, you become a target. If you don't analyze or you offer up completely bogus suggestions, then you might be scum.

You can't go hog wild in either direction, essentially.

StarvingButStrong

03-28-2007, 06:00 PM

chrisk's vote count: 1 :)

Okay, to clarify, the scheme was meant as Rysto and glee suggested, that a large number of people (including the mafia etc if they want to chime in just to confuse things,) join in, creating such a loud amount of noise that nobody's really suspected of really being a cop. Here's the post that started the idea.

Dang. Happiness that someone actually noticed and remembered one of my posts: 12 pts. Unease that someone called attention to one of my posts: 18 pts.

Did Chrisk honestly admire my idea? And has s/he drawn danger down on her/himself as a result? (Ooops. Sorry!) Or is s/he a sneaky scum trying to make others make mistakes, and incidentally painting a target on my back? :confused:

I still think the idea might work -- but that was under the old game's rules: only one seer, and he always got true info. (Except for the Alpha Wolf exception.)

But now we have (possibly) multiple cops and some/most of them will be getting wrong info.... it makes my head ache just trying to figure out how to extract info from random claims in the circumstances.

Now, I have a theory of my own: mafiosi are more likely to eat food with garlic than vanilla townsfolks. So don't mind me if I seem to be getting real up close and persona: it's not a come on, I'm just sniffing your breathe. :D

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 06:11 PM

I can't help but noticing that the FOS is only being pointed at people who are speaking up and providing analysis. So it seems that piping up is a risky move. This of course is what results in the Lynch-the-Lurker strategy that didn't seem to go over so well last time.

We also saw that the citizens who did post good analyses and opinions were targeted at night.

So can someone help out the newbie here?

What's to be gained for a Citizen, for a Mafia, and for the other roles, to pipe up and provide analysis and opinion at this time?

I think, as you point out, that people learned from last game some of the strategies that can be employed, specifically lurking vs. standing out. All things being equal (though they're not), I'd rather say more because it makes the game more fun. Sure, I could probably sit back and say little and hope to escape the noose and the gun for the next couple of days, but what's the point of that. Also, because we have the no lurking rule, if you're only going to say a little bit and you say something that makes you look suspicious (either as a mafia or as a townie), you have less opportunity to push suspicion away from yourself.

That said, I hope I'm adding some valuable incite to the discussions, especially since it looks like we're going to have a harder time pinning the mafia this time considering the enormous amount of luck that befell the town in the last game by getting the alpha-wolf in the very first lynching. Also, by posting more, it let's other people determine for themselves whether or not I'm trustworthy AND it encourages them to post which allows me to gauge their trustworthiness.

Granted, a good mafia player will likely have a similar strategy, except with their added knowledge, they will be trying to not only steer suspicion from themselves, but try to cast it from their comrades as well. Thus, that is why I like the "trust vs. mistrust" idea, because we ought to be able to justify all the people on our lists, and if I see another individual who has too many people I don't trust on their trust list, I'm going to be very suspicious of them.

The bottom line is, as it appears to me, the mafia will be normally be reactionary, because they're just trying to dispell their own suspicion, or they'll jump on bandwagons to look like the crowd.

Basically, it's a cost/benefit analysis; talk a lot to try to gain the trust of your allies, but risk gaining suspicion, or lay low and give no indications that you can be trusted or not. Clearly, because there's less risk for your average town folk and more for your mafia as the gaining of suspicion is much more dangerous since there's comparatively so few of them, I'm going to tend to trust people who speak more than those who don't UNLESS they foolish tip their hands, like it seems a couple have.

Similarly, I'm going to guess the mafia realize this, and will only kill loud townies that have foolishly tipped their hands toward a special role, otherwise, they'll probably stick to the quieter ones at first who may be key roles hoping to lay low for a while and gain information before saying much.

Rysto

03-28-2007, 06:17 PM

Ok, I've decided to take over for dnooman on the spreadsheet, under the theory that if the Mafia doesn't want us to have this information, we should definitely be tracking it. Here's the spreadsheet:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p3HS8nygukL1Aa4mFhZWjdQ

First off, you'll see in the top left corner, it says "As of #336". This means that when I last updated it, post #336 was the most recent post in this topic. On the vertical are all voters, and on the horizontal are the votees(that is, players who were voted for). At the intersection of the two will be a list of all days that the voter voted for the votee.

For example, if you go across from Enfant Terrible to the Autolycus column, there is a 1. That indicates that Enfant Terrible voted for Autolycus on Day 1. This will stay there even if Enfant Terrible unvotes Autolycus today. If Enfant Terrible subsequently votes for dnooman on Day 1, then a 1 will appear in both the Autolycus column and the dnooman column, indicating that at some point on Day 1 he voted for them.

I'm also tracking the order in which votes are placed:

http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dcgggqmr_1gkm9gc

That will list all votes(and unvotes) in chronological order. It also gives a count of the number of times the voter has voted and the number of times the votee has been voted for. Finally, I give a quick summary of the voter's stated reason for voting for that player.

Suburban Plankton

03-28-2007, 06:24 PM

My head hurts.

Honestly, there's just way too much going on here for a guy to read at work. I'm going to go home, have a beer, and reread the thread.

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 06:26 PM

Did Chrisk honestly admire my idea? And has s/he drawn danger down on her/himself as a result? (Ooops. Sorry!) Or is s/he a sneaky scum trying to make others make mistakes, and incidentally painting a target on my back? :confused:
Even though it had a slight backfire at first, because of that, it looks like he's gained a degree of trust because of the extra attention it brought him. Why would a mafia be inclined to draw that sort of attention. Even though he said he'd back off, I'd encourage him to keep going. I can't see the mafia killing him for fingering someone as a vanilla townie; I'm more interested in seeing what will happen if he fingers someone as a mafia or some other role.

As far as I'm concerned, I can't see myself voting to lynch him today. But I might grow suspicious if he doesn't continue, or keeps pointing out vanilla townies or whatever. There's at least two or three other people of whom I'm far more suspicious. However, I'm not prepared to start throwing around votes, and unvoting, because it makes it difficult to keep track later.

That said, NAF, when you do post vote updates (I'm not requesting one now), is it possible that you can also show the names of the people who voted for each vote getter? Thanks

FlyingCowOfDoom

03-28-2007, 06:26 PM

I'm pointing my FOS at FlyingCowOfDoom, but I'm not ready to toss out an official vote just yet. No particular reason other than a FlyingCowOfDoom has got to be bad right? Right?Hey, I'm not a bad guy! If you're going to point at me at least do it for a good reason, like a random number generator...

--FCOD

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 06:32 PM

Ok, I've decided to take over for dnooman ...

Kudos to Rysto! It looks like it's a bit too much information to parse at this point, but it will definitely be a good read at night. I also suppose that makes my request of NAF obselete at this point.

storyteller0910

03-28-2007, 06:34 PM

There's a tricky strategy to it, though, because if you analyze too well and become too much of an asset, you become a target.

I've been thinking about this, though, and it seems like the way around it is for everyone to post as much analysis as they can generate. This keeps the Mafia from targeting the people who do a lot of analysis, because no one stands out in that way.

Plus, it gets the Mafia talking, too, because they'll have to do it to blend in. The more they do that, the better chance they will slip up and say something inconsistent, or false, or what have you.

hocow

03-28-2007, 06:36 PM

hocow-Dnooman and I decided to eat her.

I am strangely turned on by that post. :o ;)

Wow is this thread kickin'! My head is spinning trying to read all of it at the moment.

Autolycus is raising my eyebrows. He is intentionally associating his posts with stereotypical mafia "language '. I don't believe a true mafia member would be so blatant. Unless it's a reverse psychology thing where he is using that to fool us. Although I get the impression that he likes attention drawn to himself, regardless of role or reason. Regardless of his true role, by talking almost exclusively in mafia tones it will make it difficult to for us to really decipher anything useful from his posts.

Regarding the veteran players being killed the first night, I believe the best justification for that so far is that it would suck if you weren't in the last game and then don't even get to see the light of day in this thread. As far as revenge killings leftover from the last game, I can't rule it out but it really isn't in the spirit of the game. Werewolf is over, it's Mafia now. Plus, some mafia members are probably new players, and I'm sure not every single person who didn't play last time was rabid with following it. (I know, some were very involved with following the previous game in the forbidden thread.) YMMV, of course.

Menocchio

03-28-2007, 06:43 PM

Rysto, you counted my vote for sturmhauke wrong, putting it in someone else's row. Good sheet though. Very helpful.

As for my vote, I concede that it's not a great reason, but I don't want to do the random thing so I'll stick to this until someone gives me a better one. I'm voting at all because I agree with the theory that voting, not mere accusations, is what yields useful data and because scum are more apt to give themselves away when the pressure is on them.

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 06:48 PM

Autolycus is raising my eyebrows. He is intentionally associating his posts with stereotypical mafia "language '. I don't believe a true mafia member would be so blatant. Unless it's a reverse psychology thing where he is using that to fool us. Although I get the impression that he likes attention drawn to himself, regardless of role or reason. Regardless of his true role, by talking almost exclusively in mafia tones it will make it difficult to for us to really decipher anything useful from his posts.
The problem is, he's already drawn the suspicion. I'm curious to see his self-defense, especially as he is the current high vote getter.
Regarding the veteran players being killed the first night, I believe the best justification for that so far is that it would suck if you weren't in the last game and then don't even get to see the light of day in this thread. As far as revenge killings leftover from the last game, I can't rule it out but it really isn't in the spirit of the game. Werewolf is over, it's Mafia now. Plus, some mafia members are probably new players, and I'm sure not every single person who didn't play last time was rabid with following it. (I know, some were very involved with following the previous game in the forbidden thread.) YMMV, of course.
This was a point I made earlier. Thus I suspect that's the reason for the VIG and SK kills last night; I'm not convinced it's why the mafia made their pick. dnooman was a werewolf last time and did a good job of picking out the townie roles. It's clearly in the mafia's favor, especially when it's random, to kill experience or incite, because it's just as likely as those people are special roles as it is anyone else, so this way you guarantee a higher loss to the town.

I would not be the least bit surprised if another experienced townie bites the dust tonight on the part of the mafia; I WILL be surprised if more than one bites the dust, because then it would seem the SK and VIG aren't acting in the best interest of the town.

NAF1138

03-28-2007, 06:50 PM

That said, NAF, when you do post vote updates (I'm not requesting one now), is it possible that you can also show the names of the people who voted for each vote getter? Thanks

Sure can.

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 06:54 PM

I'm voting at all because I agree with the theory that voting, not mere accusations, is what yields useful data and because scum are more apt to give themselves away when the pressure is on them.
Are you talking about the whole bandwagon voting and later analysis of known mafia and who voted for them? I still feel like a vote at this point is a little bit too random to be useful data, especially with so many random early votes. I'll probably give it another RL day or so before I think I have enough information on which to vote.

Smitty

03-28-2007, 06:56 PM

Ah, but the Chinese have a saying: 'in a lynching of 10 votes, the first vote is the most important'!

I realise we have very little to go on at this point, but wouldn't analysing posts be slightly better than randomness.

My post was one of the first when the day started. There was nothing to analyze at that time. If you read the first thread, you saw that acting that defensive on a random vote is pretty suspicious.

I'm also a bit suspicious of Enfant Terrible to cast the third vote this early on (for Autolycus), along with what Storyteller said about him.

dnooman

03-28-2007, 07:01 PM

Well, at least I got my only prediction right. So, I've got that going for me.

I'll be more productive at work at least, and I have much less typing and rereading to do, so I guess it's not that bad. Besides, this version is just a bit too complex for my tastes, it makes my brain hurt trying to figure out all the possible scenarios.

Since I'm only allowed this one post, I might as well make it count.

I think that the person(s) responsible for my death was:

(in order of increasing likelihood)

Making a random kill
Afraid of my awesome skillz playing this sort of game
Afraid of the spreadsheet I said I was going to create
Killing me to give others a turn to play
Killing me to avenge something from the other game
Killing me because of my tendency to be an a-hole at times

If dead people could bet, I would bet that the idea to kill me came from a person who posted in either of the two Wolf threads. So, that narrows it down to... most of the remaining players.

Rysto's spreadsheet is almost identical to the one I created for the last game. I had total votes for each person listed under their column, and total votes cast by each person at the end of their row. When someone was lynched I colored their column and row blue, when someone was eaten I colored their column and row red.

I hope my death leads to finding one of the scum at least. Goodbye, and GO TOWN!

The Understander

03-28-2007, 07:01 PM

But Enfant Terrible is the only person so far who has really pinged my suspicious-O-meter, mostly because of this post:

This reads to me as an attempt to keep people from analyzing (or, at least, to keep them from posting analysis), for fear of being pegged as scum. Since analysis is really all we have to keep us from making a random choice - and a random choice is really a bad idea, since statistically we are much more likely to choose incorrectly than correctly at this point in the game if we're picking at random - this isn't really a pro-town stance as far as I can see.

I'm no where near suspicious enough to issue an official vote yet, but this seemed worth mentioning.

I have no fear of being pegged as scum. Lynch me, lynch a vanilla townie. It happens. I'd prefer it not happen, but then, that's the point of the game.

I'm actually going with my own strategy, which, until I can find a better way to play, seems to be the easiest way to play Townie. Always tell the truth. Full disclosure. If I reach the status of confirmed townie and stick around long enough, hopefully I can actually help with the whole 'deducing the scum' part later, but for now all I can do is hope the guys with the guns stay away from me and continue playing Honest John.

I acknowledge that there's no way for me to really prove I'm a townie unless the detective starts laying breadcrumbs that I'm innocent. That would be a blunder greater than getting involved in a land war in Asia, so I'm perfectly content to lay out the truth and hope for the best.

Kat

03-28-2007, 07:28 PM

Man, this thread is moving fast.

Based on a quick once-over, Smitty caught my attention with his comment about Enfant Terrible casting the 3rd vote for Autolycus. Didn't JSexton say in the the previous game that that tell really only works if the players aren't aware of it? I know Enfant Terrible read at least part of the Werewolf game, cuz he (she?) posted to it. So, is this a case of a Mafia member waiting to pounce on the first third-vote-caster?

Menocchio

03-28-2007, 07:45 PM

Are you talking about the whole bandwagon voting and later analysis of known mafia and who voted for them? I still feel like a vote at this point is a little bit too random to be useful data, especially with so many random early votes. I'll probably give it another RL day or so before I think I have enough information on which to vote.
I'm talking about the fact that some scum will crack if put under pressure. Become overly defensive. Make obvious lies. That sort of thing. Not everyone is a good liar, even over the Internet.

The Understander

03-28-2007, 07:56 PM

hocow

03-28-2007, 07:57 PM

This was a point I made earlier.

I apologize for not citing your post earlier. I knew someone had posted that but my head was spinning and I was too lazy to find who it was.

Kat

03-28-2007, 08:11 PM

Right now, based on sensible advice in their postings, I'm inclined to trust Rysto, CaerieD and nesta.

Jury's out on Autolycus. I know that I was toying with posting some "mafia-lingo" type wording, based on the theme, but I passed on the idea, mainly because I figured it would be annoying, and possibly suspicious. He could just be trying to be cute,but then again...

Also haven't decided yet if it's suspicious that MadTheSwine has started in on Winston Smith right away or not.

glee

03-28-2007, 08:29 PM

My post was one of the first when the day started. There was nothing to analyze at that time. If you read the first thread, you saw that acting that defensive on a random vote is pretty suspicious.

I'm also a bit suspicious of Enfant Terrible to cast the third vote this early on (for Autolycus), along with what Storyteller said about him.

If there's nothing to analyse, why vote?

There's a tricky strategy to it, though, because if you analyze too well and become too much of an asset, you become a target.

I've been thinking about this, though, and it seems like the way around it is for everyone to post as much analysis as they can generate. This keeps the Mafia from targeting the people who do a lot of analysis, because no one stands out in that way.
Plus, it gets the Mafia talking, too, because they'll have to do it to blend in. The more they do that, the better chance they will slip up and say something inconsistent, or false, or what have you.

Hear, hear!
I've stuck in analysis and want to be judged on that.
If I post rubbish, lynch me.
If I get assassinated, you'll know my stuff was good.

Rysto

03-28-2007, 08:38 PM

If there's nothing to analyse, why vote?
To give us something to analyze.

Kat

03-28-2007, 08:44 PM

Doesn't the discussion do that, too?

Rysto

03-28-2007, 08:53 PM

It does, but if we're not throwing out random votes, people are throwing out random accusations instead. There's not much of a difference, really.

Queuing

03-28-2007, 09:04 PM

I agree that doonman was probably the mafia kill. My thinking is that he was to dangerous. He had shown in the past a willingness to create a spreadsheet, had threatened to do so in the game, and had shown himself fairly adept at role guessing.
So that, to my thinking, explains 1 of the kills.

So why the other two?

OAOW complained about the number of night posts, talking about how hard it would make it analyze. S/He said this twice, in #119 and #220. Post 220 was a rebuttal to something Chrisk had posted in which Chrisk had though the night posts were a good idea, to get to know one another.

I still have Chrisk in my somewhat trusted level, however, so I am not putting much weight to that exchange. Of course, if Chrisk made a false role claim, or just came a little to close to making a role claim, and now no longer posts his “investigations”

Captain Carrot said 3 things at night, nothing to interesting (so I thought at least).

Making something of a jump here, but I think OAOW was killed by the SK, and captain carrot by the VG.

I to am curious about what Autolycus has to say. He has gone strangely quiet, and I agree with whomever said that it seems odd to me, he does seem to like attention. In fact I would like to hear from everyone who has been voted for. More information is never a bad thing.

I have been voted for once, and made the distrust list of a couple of people. This was, as far as I can tell, because I am posting. I am posting my thoughts about this game. I will not stop that, even if it gets me lynched. Lakai said it seemed like I was trying fish out the intelligent players. What I was doing was trying to see the experience of players, to see if someone would lie about it, and could later be caught in that lie. If you lie once, you should die. Simple as that. Maybe it wasn’t such a good idea. Lakai has only posted 3 times to this thread, one of which was a vote against me.

Currently my vote stands (sturmhauke), but the more I read the more suspicions come.

Queuing

03-28-2007, 09:07 PM

The hamsters ate some of my post:

still have Chrisk in my somewhat trusted level, however, so I am not putting much weight to that exchange. Of course, if Chrisk made a false role claim, or just came a little to close to making a role claim, and now no longer posts his “investigations” my level of trust will go down. At some point (I say day 3, that should give us 3 of his investigations, we should try one out then)

Suburban Plankton

03-28-2007, 09:12 PM

People I trust:

Captain Carrot
dnooman
One and Only Wanderers

People I distrust:

everyone else

Seriously, we have no information to base anything on at this point. There is absolutely no reason for any of us to trust anyone. Of course, there really isn't much reason to distrust anyone at this point either, but its so much more fun...

There are a couple of things which have piqued my interest thus far:

glee was very defensive when Smitty pointed the FOS at him (post 267). A while later, he posted this

P.S. If I were Mafia and only ChrisK claimed, I would leave him alone. Then the Town would lynch him for me.
He seems to be going out of his way to make sure we all know he isn't Mafia.

Lynch glee.

zuma

03-28-2007, 09:25 PM

MonkeyMensch

03-28-2007, 09:26 PM

To correct my numbers, if a beat cop investigates a vanilla townie, then there's a 56.25% probability that he shows up as a vanilla townie (50% for being right, and 1/8 of 50% chance if it's random). Similarly, if he investigates a non-vanilla townie (say a mafia), there's only a 6.25% chance that he'll show up as a townie, but a 56.25% chance that he'll show up as mafia.

That is, if a beat cop shows up someone as a vanilla townie, especially since there's so many of them, it's highly unlikely that they're anything else, it's only if they show up as something unexpected like VIG or SK (where there's only one) that it is suspicious and warrants another night of investigating. To a beat cop, if someone shows up SK two nights in a row, then he almost certainly is because the chance of that if he isn't is less than 0.4%
This is nice. I would add that if a beat cop stumbles on the doctor during investigation you might want to give them a second look as well. That way we'd have a cop who could subtly, subtly derail any mistaken lynching attempts on the doc.

Captain Carrot

03-28-2007, 09:29 PM

Damn, I got killed ten hours before I got home. Good luck, townies -- you're going to need it with three deaths per day.

zuma

03-28-2007, 09:37 PM

I have no fear of being pegged as scum. Lynch me, lynch a vanilla townie. It happens. I'd prefer it not happen, but then, that's the point of the game.

And you thought it would be beneficial to role-claim the first day with just one vote on you why, exactly? Best case is that you've now narrowed down the list for mafia. Worst case is that you are mafia.

Menocchio

03-28-2007, 09:46 PM

And you thought it would be beneficial to role-claim the first day with just one vote on you why, exactly? Best case is that you've now narrowed down the list for mafia. Worst case is that you are mafia.
We're all, by default, role-claiming as vanilla townie. Enfant could be lying about his role in town as easily as he could be lying about being town.

It's only claims of extraordinary roles that we should be suspicious of. Claiming to be vanilla town is just playing the game.

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 10:21 PM

Of course.

*does the obligatory two-eyes to two-eyes finger point*

I see that we have the earliest vestiges of theorizing going on, and in my limited experience with this game, players who provide early breakdowns tend to have some sort of special role the rest of us just don't have... hmmm.
I have no fear of being pegged as scum. Lynch me, lynch a vanilla townie. It happens. I'd prefer it not happen, but then, that's the point of the game.

I'm actually going with my own strategy, which, until I can find a better way to play, seems to be the easiest way to play Townie. Always tell the truth. Full disclosure. If I reach the status of confirmed townie and stick around long enough, hopefully I can actually help with the whole 'deducing the scum' part later, but for now all I can do is hope the guys with the guns stay away from me and continue playing Honest John.

I acknowledge that there's no way for me to really prove I'm a townie unless the detective starts laying breadcrumbs that I'm innocent. That would be a blunder greater than getting involved in a land war in Asia, so I'm perfectly content to lay out the truth and hope for the best.

Posts 255 and 357 respectively by Enfant Terrible. The first one looks suspiciously like scum because, as was pointed out earlier, it seems like he would prefer no theorizing. The second just looks like a desperate attempt to pass off as a townie. These, I think, provide strong enough tells for me to vote to lynch him. Unless someone else can point out a compelling post of his.

Sling up Enfant Terrible!

Fern Forest

03-28-2007, 10:48 PM

Well, just leave me "War and Peace" to read why don't you?

Ok, light has shown and I'm feeling peppy. Despite my clogged kitchen drain.

This game is much harder to see logically then the other game. It seems like we might not have a clear town victory until the very last day. Depending upon how tough the GF is to find.

The Serial Killer's goal should be to rid the town of Mafia first. A Mafioso majority will insure them victory and him loserdom. If only the town plus the SK is left then he had a hope of being the last alive in a town where the streets run red with blood. Tough job but I hope he does well, just not great. There should be no reason to claim SK since doing so would mean you lose. You don't get to claim town or mafia victory, you have only your own victory to shoot for.

The vigilante's goal should also be to rid the town of Mafia first. Then once they are gone, find and kill the SK for Town victory. If he kills the SK too early we're left with 1 town kill versus 1 mafia kill rather then 3 to 1. A vigilante could claim. Who they attack that night would still go through even if they die. And they could hope to have the doctor protect them giving the town basically two discusable kills per day/night cycle. You know, this could work. Claim and let the town help you decide. Although it's even better if you keep quiet and the town help you make a decision by talking about who the VG should kill. SK too. If we're smart we can help direct the three kills. This might help us get even more information by seeing who was urging who else to be killed.

They can also become a defacto seer. For instance let's say you try and kill someone but fail. Then either you were blocked or that person is the godfather. Try again and get blocked again I think it's exremely likely you'd have found him. That might be worth claiming so we can get him known and kill him.

The Miller might be able to use themselves as defacto seers. If they try to block someone and someone doesn't get killed that night then they have a nice large foam FOS. They might want to drop clues in their post the day after for us to pickup should they get killed.

Detectives are interesting. Check this out. In the rules of the last game let's say there are 6 known town versus 6 unknown. And that night the detective does his work as do the scum. If a scum is investigated then the next day there are 5 known town versus 5 unknown and 1 scum. Good but the town is still behind. But if he investigates a townie then the next day there are 6 known and 5 unknown. Giving the town a guaranteed victory. The best thing we could get from the Det. is a whole bunch of townies we can mark as "safe."

But this time things are more difficult, there may be a GF within the safe. We'd have to go into the second to last day up by 3, say 4 to 1. So we kill the last unknown but the game keeps going. Out of those 4 there is 1 and only 1 scum. He kills that night leaving 3. They have 1 day to get it right, if they fail town loses. So we want our detective, when he's forced to come out (or however it happens) to give us a day advantage of 3. Unless we happen to get the GF then we can do it with an advatage of 1. Of course if the SK sees this he will try to stop us and work against town, at least for the time being. He cannot let the town achieve the status of guaranteed victory.

I'm having a hard time seeing the logic of the beat cop.

Doctor. With so many killings going on the Doc's best move might be to keep himself alive until more important people are forced into the open. Better to lose a mason then have a mafioso protected from the SK or VG.

Not sure about the GA either. If you get one shot might be best to lay in wait to use your power.

Mafia. There gole is to kill all townies. Any person that gets known, either as Det or Vanilla is dangerous to them. They have to keep us in the dark. The more we know about ourselves the more dangerous things get for them since the smaller the pool is that we have to pick from.

GF. He might be playing it low. Not even talking to the other Mafia. A method actor so to speak. Or he could be actively conspiring with them. Either way his goal again is to keep us in the dark.

Now who to kill? Who to kill? I feel like a kid in a candy shop. Only the kid is Pugsley and the candy is actually candied eyeballs.

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 10:54 PM

This is nice. I would add that if a beat cop stumbles on the doctor during investigation you might want to give them a second look as well. That way we'd have a cop who could subtly, subtly derail any mistaken lynching attempts on the doc.

Okay, I've done some more calculations for the beat cops; someone please correct me if I'm wrong. As I said before, if the beat cop investigates someone once, then the probability that he is what he shows up as what he actually is 56.25%. If he investigates that person twice, and he shows up as the same thing twice, then it jumps to about 92% probability that that is what he actually is.

If he shows up as something different each time it gets a lot more complicated, so to simplify, let's just go on my earlier assumption that all the roles except for mafia are beneficial to the town. Under this assumption, if a someone is investigated twice, and they show up differently, but neither of the investigations showed up as mafia, then that's about 88% probability that he's a role other than mafia. If someone is investigated twice, and one of the roles is mafia, then if he is mafia, there's a 49% chance that will happen, versus a 12% chance if he isn't mafia.

IOW, it looks like a beat cop is just a little less than half as good as a detective because it basically takes two nights to have a good pin on what role someone is, but then it's only a good pin, not a perfect one. So if there really is one detective and two beat cops, then it looks like we have the equivalent information of about 2 detectives working each night.

Rysto

03-28-2007, 10:55 PM

The Serial Killer's goal should be to rid the town of Mafia first. A Mafioso majority will insure them victory and him loserdom. If only the town plus the SK is left then he had a hope of being the last alive in a town where the streets run red with blood. Tough job but I hope he does well, just not great. There should be no reason to claim SK since doing so would mean you lose. You don't get to claim town or mafia victory, you have only your own victory to shoot for.
My understanding is that the game ends once there are no more Mafia or the Mafia outnumber non-Mafia. The SK wins as long as they're alive when either endgame condition is met. NAF, can we get a clarification on this?

ArizonaTeach

03-28-2007, 11:20 PM

God, this is honestly going to be harder than I thought to keep up with this many people (and posts). Nobody has me on their trust list, dammit. But nobody has me on their mistrust list, so yay!

Here's the one thing that I was thinking of when the "day" started: look for the third vote. That's the first thing that jumped out to me from the first game, although it was pure luck that it actually worked. But the fact that it made an impression on me damn well means it made impressions on other people. So I know, that you know, that I know, that you know. So, really, no help, except that if someone posted it without thinking about it, then tried to backtrack with a whole "lynch me, that's ok, I don't care, but I'm only a poor citizen," then I get suspicious.

Because that's the other thing I thought of from the previous game.

So I'm not voting for Enfant Terrible yet, but I'm wondering about him.

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 11:24 PM

The vigilante's goal should also be to rid the town of Mafia first. Then once they are gone, find and kill the SK for Town victory. If he kills the SK too early we're left with 1 town kill versus 1 mafia kill rather then 3 to 1. A vigilante could claim. Who they attack that night would still go through even if they die. And they could hope to have the doctor protect them giving the town basically two discusable kills per day/night cycle. You know, this could work. Claim and let the town help you decide. Although it's even better if you keep quiet and the town help you make a decision by talking about who the VG should kill. SK too. If we're smart we can help direct the three kills. This might help us get even more information by seeing who was urging who else to be killed.
I agree with this strategy, and it was actually one I was going to suggest. As long as the town has a reasonable lead, it makes sense for the SK to fight on our side to shorten the game and VIG to go after mafia to shorten it further. If the mafia starts to get close to the 50% mark, the SK will switch sides and go after townies. As we get closer to the final vote for the day, I imagine we can more easily cast suspicion on other vote getters and/or casters to suggest for VIG and SK targets.
Mafia. There gole is to kill all townies. Any person that gets known, either as Det or Vanilla is dangerous to them. They have to keep us in the dark. The more we know about ourselves the more dangerous things get for them since the smaller the pool is that we have to pick from.
I don't agree with this per say. It is NOT in the favor of the mafia to kill a known vanilla townie at this time, because it's more important that they go after the cops, sk, vig, and doctor. If they kill a known townie, they're using a turn that they could be killing a random townie in hopes of finding a special role, to kill someone they know isn't a special role. It's only useful to kill known townies after most of the special roles have been killed off. Thus, having known townies at this point only helps reduce the mafia's potential targets; this is exactly why it's not a good idea for masons to come out until it's a benefit to the town to have known townies so we can reduce our targets.

Lakai

03-28-2007, 11:26 PM

Trust - Blaster Master, Menocchio, Rysto, Storyteller0910

Distrust - Enfant Terrible, Queuing, chrisk and MadTheSwine.

I am still wondering why Queuing would ask that we should not be suspicious of Enfant Terrible. He does so here. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405976&postcount=304)

He never gave his reasons and I would like to hear them.

Also after Pleonast casted suspicion (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406246&postcount=322) on him for asking not to lynch Enfant Terrible, Enfant Terrible did not appear on his trusted list in his next post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406283&postcount=327) . This is inconsistent behavior, which is compatible with someone who has to lie a lot.

I don't like Enfant Terrible for the reasons stated by Blaster Master in his post shortly before this one.

TheMadSwine has been throwing around vague suspicion in posts 308 and 338.

I don't like chrisk for no other reason than the fact that Queuing defends him.

Three people have voted for Autolycus so far, but I think that Enfant Terrible and Queuing have more concrete suspicion against them. All Autolycus has done was fool around with his character, which is not suspicious enough for me to cast a vote for him.

Fern Forest

03-28-2007, 11:37 PM

Sturmhauke, did your drinking buddy say anything intelligble that might explain why he was killed off?You know, I just don't trust drinking buddies.

Vote Sturmhauke

Hockey Monkey

03-28-2007, 11:37 PM

Well, let's take a look at what kind of numbers a beat cop would get, first, we consider the known roles in the game: scum (includes potential millers), townie (potentially includes gf), doctor, ga, cop, vig, sk, mason. That means, if he's going to be wrong, there's a 1/7 chance for each of the other roles to be chosen for the individual.

Thus, if the result is vanilla townie, then it's clearly more likely that the individual is a townie because he was either right (1/2 * 100%) or he was wrong (1/2 * ~14%), thus, if he was a townie, he has a 50% chance of showing up as one, but if he was something else, he only has about a 7% chance of having shown up as a townie. Further, of those 7 other roles he may have been, clearly most of them (doctor, ga, cop, mason, vig) are in the favor of the town. IOW, if someone shows up as a townie from a beat cop, he's mostly safe and, all other things being equal, should be treated with less suspicion.

<snip>

Equally likely, which should answer FP's question as well. I am going to feed all the possible roles (as listed at the top of the game) into random.org and get the answer from there, if they are supposed to get a wrong answer. To decide if they get a wrong answer or not I am going to flip a coin and have the call heads or tails. To head off the next question...no they don't know the outcome of the coin flip.

From what I understand of this NAF said he was going to feed the roles into random.org each night to get which role the beat cop would see for the person investigated, if he is wrong. I’m assuming the cop calls heads or tails when he says who he wants to investigate. So EACH TIME, the outcome is 50/50. Not that the cop will be wrong on 50% of all of his investigations. Theoretically, he could be wrong on 100% of his investigations if he calls the wrong flip every night. Also, if he were to investigate the same person every night, he could theoretically get a different answer every time for 7 or 8 nights (depending on how many actual roles there are in the game). I do agree that if he gets the same answer on successive nights that the likelihood is greater of having a right answer, because of the randomness of the wrong answer.

I may be making no sense at all here, (I’ve been buried in this thread for about 3 hours, and my head is just about full) but I just don’t see how the beat cop is going to factor as a power player.

Blaster Master

03-28-2007, 11:38 PM

I don't agree with this per se.
Since there's a "no editting" rule, I still have to correct this because it urks the hell out of me when I spell something like this wrong.

Rysto

03-28-2007, 11:41 PM

I may be making no sense at all here, (I’ve been buried in this thread for about 3 hours, and my head is just about full) but I just don’t see how the beat cop is going to factor as a power player.
Well, once the probability of the beat cop having correctly identified scum is higher than the probability of a random vote being for scum, it's a better strategy for us to follow the beat cop's information.

MadTheSwine

03-28-2007, 11:53 PM

Since there's a "no editting" rule, I still have to correct this because it urks the hell out of me when I spell something like this wrong.
Are you irked or urked?

Hockey Monkey

03-28-2007, 11:55 PM

Well, once the probability of the beat cop having correctly identified scum is higher than the probability of a random vote being for scum, it's a better strategy for us to follow the beat cop's information.

As I was composing my post, so was Blaster Master, and it seems to make a little more sense now.

Trust: Blaster Master, Fern Forest, Rysto

Don't Trust: Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, FlyingCowOfDoom

Blaster Master

03-29-2007, 12:02 AM

After some more re-reads, here's another update of who is suspicious to me

Trust: Rysto, Lakai, Storyteller0910, chrisk (but only for today, if he stops posting his investigations, he goes right to my mistrust list)
Mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Queuing, CaerieD, Autolycus, MonkeyMensch

Thus, I would say we should lynch Enfant, the VIG should kill Queuing, and the SK should kill CaerieD.

I have a gut on a couple of the other roles too, but it's obviously not to our benefit to air those suspicions.

Blaster Master

03-29-2007, 12:04 AM

Are you irked or urked?
Damn you! :o :smack: I just can't win. Doom on the teachers who taught me to spell this way. I swear, I'm normally a really good speller.

NAF1138

03-29-2007, 12:06 AM

My understanding is that the game ends once there are no more Mafia or the Mafia outnumber non-Mafia. The SK wins as long as they're alive when either endgame condition is met. NAF, can we get a clarification on this?

This is true. SK wins if they are still alive when the game ends. It doesn't matter what end condition is fulfilled.

Pleonast

03-29-2007, 12:13 AM

It will be hard to keep up with everything, so it will be easy for people to miss something and make a mistake. This is very useful! It's why people need to be listing who they trust or don't. Saying you don't know is lazy. People are posting--read and think about it. Very soon, I'll start mistrusting anyone who holds back.

Townies need info and whoever withholds it is not working in our best interest.

I trust: Blaster Master, Chrisk, Gadarene, Rysto, storyteller0910.
I mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Menocchio, Queuing.

Trusting Rysto for his analysis; even if he's Mafia, he's helping us out for now. Mistrusting Menocchio for attacking sturmhauke just becuase he survived the first night. That's a not good enough reason.

Autolycus

03-29-2007, 12:15 AM

Barkeep, another bloody mary please. I gots this big headache and gotta goes to work soon and these loud peoples wont stop yammerin' about some crime problem. I'ms as sad as anyones that peoples were murdered, but every towns has crime right, so what's the big fat hairy deal? If ya asks me, everyone should minds their own business.

Aguecheek

03-29-2007, 12:19 AM

Okay...as others have mentioned, it's way more than I anticipated and will still be thinking about it for a while.

In regards to assigning current roles and roles played in the last game, I am of the belief that all roles were assigned randomly, and that sturmhauke had as much of a chance of being assigned mafia as he'd had being assigned citizen.

And I think he was assigned mafia.

He was just as good a player earlier as dnooman had been last game (better, imho); I felt he managed to fly below the radar much longer than dnooman did. Were I mafia, I'da voted for him first and gone for dnooman second. The promised spreadsheet would not have had enough data on it to be much good by the time the second night rolled around. The only reasons I'd say he didn't go first was either because he was mafia... or the mafia could only get one at a time and he's set to go second.

There's been much discussion throughout as to why he wasn't killed the first night by either the mob, the Vigilante, or the Serial Killer. I think he's mob (as noted above). But if he isn't, there should still have been a very good chance for him getting offed by the Vig or SK for the very same reasons he should've been targeted by the mafia. And yet he still wasn't picked. That good a player, and three different factions didn't pick him? C'mon. If he's not mafia, then he's one of the other two killers.

And on the 2/3 chance that he's either scum or the Serial Killer, I say lynch sturmhauke.

And an FOS to Autolycus too. Nothing concrete, I just think he's doth protesting too much with the mob act, and has been pretty quiet since he was called on it.

Fern Forest

03-29-2007, 12:21 AM

Word of note. Most of my logic is simplified. The logic in this game would drive Spock mad. Mad I tell you. Mad.

I don't agree with this per say. It is NOT in the favor of the mafia to kill a known vanilla townie at this time, because it's more important that they go after the cops, sk, vig, and doctor.Let me explain better. Right now there are no known townspeople. A known townsperson is a person who we are almost positive that they are on our side. Getting people into the known categoryis very hard. No vanilla would be able to do it to himself. It would take the work of the Det. or the Cop. The Masons could come forward and make themselves known but shouldn't want to do that. That's what I meant by known.

And as an example let's go to the previous game. As night fell there were 4 confirmed townies by the seer plus 2 masons confirmable by the known mason. On the other side there were 8 unknown persons. Now 2 were masons. This meant there were 6 known and 6 unknown. Disregarding what was suspected at the time that night the wolves could have knocked off a known person leaving 5 known and 6 unknown to choose from. Assumging every day an unknown was lynched and every night a known was eaten it would have gone like this. Known v unknown: 5 v 5, 4 v 5, 4 v 4, 3 v 4, 3 v 3, 2 v 3, 2 v 2, 1 v 2
And so on that last day if a wolf still existed the known town would have had a 50/50 chance at getting the wolf. If not, the wolves win that night. Basically the wolves still had a shot.

But instead they ate an unknown on that 6 v 6 night. This meant that in the morning there were 6 known townies and only 5 unknown and instead the days would go like this: 6 v 4, 5 v 4, 5 v 3, 4 v 3, 4 v 2, 3 v 2, 3 v 1, 2 v 1, 2 v 0. When the wolves ate an unknown (Ogre) they were doomed to defeat. Of course it was made worse for them since the seer still lived. What's even more interesting (for our Det) is that night the seer investigated dnooman and found he was a wolf. That day it was still 6 v 5 though. But if instead he had found out one of the other vanilla townies that day there would have been 7 knowns versus 4 unknowns. Meaning the victory was assured even quicker.

So when our Det. comes forward with data it is the smart Mafioso who takes that list and kills them one by one even the vanilla. Of course the Det and other roles come first but they should kill the vanilla before going fishing again.

I do see a possible exception though. Let's say the Det is forced out and gives us some knowns. The Mafia kill him and the other roles and at that point the knowns (only vanilla) v unknowns is something like 6 v 8. The town is nowhere near victory so the mafia can continue to fish. But let's say they fish and get a known townie, 6 v 7. Next day town kills an unknown leaving a 6 v 6 town. Now if they fish that night they wake up to a 6 v 5 town and the town is guaranteed victory provided the SK, VG and GF are all gone.

Boy, my fingers are going to be mere stubs when this game is over.

Aguecheek

03-29-2007, 12:26 AM

And of course, while I'm busy pouring my heart out, he's no longer quiet...

Heh.

Fern Forest

03-29-2007, 12:32 AM

Trust: Blaster Master, Fern Forest, Rysto
Now thems some warm and fuzzies.

I also trust chrisk. His reveal post kinda makes him the Winston Smith of this round. :p Sorry buddy, I just don't think that's a good idea at all. And Blaster Master has a good feel about him.

I think the SK should get Autolycus and the VG Flying Cow of Doom. Now if you were a Flying Pig this game might just go by a little quicker.

"Hey, hey, hey. Weee, look at me."

Rysto

03-29-2007, 12:51 AM

In regards to assigning current roles and roles played in the last game, I am of the belief that all roles were assigned randomly, and that sturmhauke had as much of a chance of being assigned mafia as he'd had being assigned citizen.
This just isn't true. Last game there was about 20 players and 5 Werewolves. With the roles assigned randomly, that gives any player a 25% chance of being scum and a 75% chance of being Town. Assuming that NAF used approximately the same ratios, that means that there's about a 75% chance that sturmhauke(or indeed, any other player) is Town.

That good a player, and three different factions didn't pick him? C'mon. If he's not mafia, then he's one of the other two killers.
Why would the SK or Vigilante want to target a strong player? They're both trying to help the Town.

Autolycus

03-29-2007, 12:51 AM

And an FOS to Autolycus too. Nothing concrete, I just think he's doth protesting too much with the mob act, and has been pretty quiet since he was called on it.

What's you talkin about blue-face? I always been talkin' like this. You thinks I'm a mafia, wells that's your own business. Mama always saids to mind your own business. Ya know, this heres my hometown. I's been part of this god-forsaken rat-hole since befores you left yer mama's blood box. You think this is an act? I'd shows you an act, and theres wont be an encore, but what the fuck, I'm willins to let by-gones be's by-gones. A punk likes you 'aint worth my time.

Blaster Master

03-29-2007, 01:00 AM

Boy, my fingers are going to be mere stubs when this game is over.
Okay, I see your point. However, as you point out, when the unknowns highly outweigh the knowns, it makes the most sense for the mafia to fish; once they get close, it makes more sense to kill knowns, no matter their role, even if the doc/seer/vig/sk is still alive among the unknowns. Obviously, there's a point of balance there, but I have no idea where it is, and I wont' even try to calculate because that's only going to help the mafia. At least at this point, I think they're going to fish, especially since there's still zero confirmed townies.

What does concern me a bit about the trust vs. mistrust lists, is that if enough people list a particular person as trusted, that may make them a target for being too helpful. Thus, for the doctor, if he's being actively pinged by anyone, he should probably protect himself; if he's pretty much under the radar, he may be of the most benefit if picks one of the most trusted to protect. That said, if we can convince the mafia that one of the most trusted people is probably being protected by the doctor, they may pass them over and go toward some of the others to try to avoid wasting a potential kill on someone that is likely to be protected and allowing the doctor to go back to protecting himself.

Aguecheek

03-29-2007, 01:30 AM

This just isn't true. Last game there was about 20 players and 5 Werewolves. With the roles assigned randomly, that gives any player a 25% chance of being scum and a 75% chance of being Town. Assuming that NAF used approximately the same ratios, that means that there's about a 75% chance that sturmhauke(or indeed, any other player) is Town.Bad wording on my part, sorry. I meant he had just as much of a chance of being assigned mafia as anyone else in this game. That NAF did not take previous roles played into consideration at all.

Why would the SK or Vigilante want to target a strong player? They're both trying to help the Town.You say the SK should be pro-town (post 251). I say we should be trying to figure out who the SK is just as quickly as we try to figure who the mafia is. With the SK out there, we're losing 2 people a night. Once the SK is gone, the Vig is gone...and then we're only down to 1 a night. Right now, you could say the SK is responsible for 2 deaths. Not just his/her own victim. Less killings all 'round, makes it easier to smoke out the mafia.

Serial Killer - anti town AND anti mafia player, may kill each night...If they're alive at the end of the game, they win, regardless of any Citizen/Mafia ratio. Taking out a strong player ensures less analysis, less debate, less educated finger-pointing and more random lynchings. The only worry for the SK is being randomly picked as opposed to being ferreted out by a good player.

Additionally, all victims last night were previous players. Consensus is that dnooman was taken out due to his skill. I'd hazard a guess that there was also a little bit of desire on all killers' parts to thin the previous players to allow others to play, selfish yes...also human.

Each victim, OaOW, dnooman, and Captain Carrot were previous players. Each one got through the whole game, or a large part of it, all in an admirable fashion. sturmhauke was one of the the more visible players of the lot. And yet he wasn't killed. I'd say out of three independent factions, all of whom targeted previous players, one of them should have targeted sturm. The fact that he wasn't leads me to believe that he has to be a member of one of those factions, and got lucky on the other two.

Fern Forest

03-29-2007, 02:12 AM

Here's an interesting final scenario.

Mark, Valerie and Steve walk down the gallows stairs shaking their head. Tom the Townie was dead. Each go to bed eyeing the others warily knowing someone's going to wake up dead. Later that night Valerie the Vigilante sneaks out of her home at midnight and parks a few blocks away from Steve's house. She finds an unlocked basement window and squeezes into the house. After a few hours of hiding she hears Steve get up to take a late night leak and *BLAM* shoots him dead. Exhuberant from her kill she returns to her car and puts the key in the ignition and *BLAM* is blown to bits by the bomb placed in her car's engine by Mark the Mafioso an hour before. Mark, watching with binoculors from his bedroom window a few blocks away laughs gutterally and takes a sip of champagne to celebrate. Champagne poisoned by Steve the Serial Killer.

Three way tie, can it happen?

By the way, another thought. The doctor should only declare when he's about to be lynched by the town, even if a Mafia is claiming Doc status. Better to remain hidden and protecting someone like the Detective then reveal yourself. While a Mafia claiming Doc status would be free from lynching for awhile eventually you'll get lynched and then we lynch the faker. A one for one trade is in our benefit but it's even better for us if we can keep those protections you have for a few more days.

Blaster Master

03-29-2007, 02:20 AM

You say the SK should be pro-town (post 251). I say we should be trying to figure out who the SK is just as quickly as we try to figure who the mafia is. With the SK out there, we're losing 2 people a night. Once the SK is gone, the Vig is gone...and then we're only down to 1 a night. Right now, you could say the SK is responsible for 2 deaths. Not just his/her own victim. Less killings all 'round, makes it easier to smoke out the mafia.

I don't agree with this. It is in the SKs interest to have the shortest game possible to maximize his survival, thus, from the get go, since there are fewer mafia, it only makes sense to assist the town, unless the town starts to flop, then he should switch sides. Regardless, the VIG is always going to be anti-mafia, and because the SK is hard to pick out, with no obvious tells, it makes more sense for the VIG to target the mafia to maximize the potential for winning. If he largely goes along with the voting of the town, he can kill someone who would have been likely to have gotten lynched the next day anyway, ultimately saving the town the extra day (and ultimately the extra night murder by the mafia). The VIG should only really expressly target the SK when it's suspected that he's switched sides to the mafia, because then he and the SK are pretty much a wash, and if he can kill the SK he becomes a "known townie".

Each victim, OaOW, dnooman, and Captain Carrot were previous players. Each one got through the whole game, or a large part of it, all in an admirable fashion. sturmhauke was one of the the more visible players of the lot. And yet he wasn't killed. I'd say out of three independent factions, all of whom targeted previous players, one of them should have targeted sturm. The fact that he wasn't leads me to believe that he has to be a member of one of those factions, and got lucky on the other two.

Let's keep running under that assumption. Let's say the mafia saw dnooman and sturmhauke as threats. Obviously, if sturmhauke is mafia, they won't go after him, but what if he's not, and maybe they saw them as relatively equal threats. Considering, even by dnooman's own admition, the possibility that there might have been a lasting vendetta, that could have been enough to tip the scales in his favor. Now, the mafia would be foolish to kill sturmhauke tonight precisely because he looks so suspicious to so many of us. Would you say the same thing about dnooman if the kill had happened the other way around?

Blaster Master

03-29-2007, 02:33 AM

By the way, another thought. The doctor should only declare when he's about to be lynched by the town, even if a Mafia is claiming Doc status. Better to remain hidden and protecting someone like the Detective then reveal yourself. While a Mafia claiming Doc status would be free from lynching for awhile eventually you'll get lynched and then we lynch the faker. A one for one trade is in our benefit but it's even better for us if we can keep those protections you have for a few more days.
Absolutely, the doctor declaring is almost certainly a losing move; obviously, any mafia declaring to be doctor is foolish too, because he'll either be pegged right away, or when the doctor does finally bite it, he'll be lynched immediately. Similarly, there's no benefit to the VIG coming forward either, unless he's about to be lynched. The only roles I can see possibly being worth coming forward are one of the Masons to perhaps give us some information (in a way similar to how OAOW did last game) or a cop, under the hope that he'll be protected by the doctor, or at least be assumed to be protected so they won't even bother to attack him.

Of course, there's always the problem of whether or not we can really trust someone who claims to be a cop, the Masons are much easier to believe, especially since, if a mafia claims to be one, he'll be called out on it by a true mason, we kill both (maybe only one, if we're lucky on the one we choose) and at worst we're done one mason for one mafia.

All of that said, I still think that anyone claiming a role at this point is foolishly tipping their hands. A Mason shouldn't be compelled to come forward unless a mason is either about to get lynched, or is a requested target of the VIG and/or SK.

sturmhauke

03-29-2007, 02:38 AM

Goddamn this thread moves fast. And I’ve already collected 4 votes! Time for some rebuttals...
So I guess I will just throw a vote out there, and go with Sturmhauke. This is because I believe he played the best of the players from last time, and did not get killed.*
:dubious: Uh, thanks? Maybe the folks who did last night’s killing thought their victims were more dangerous than me. Sure, I’m a good player, but it’s not like the universe has unanimously decided I’m the Lord High Mafia Player Of All Time.
…as much as I think sturmhauke and Winston Smith are Mafia.I gotta cast my vote for chrisk.*
I guess you think I’m mafia for the same (scant) reason as Queuing, there, but what is the deal with you and Winston? Again?
I'm talking about the fact that some scum will crack if put under pressure. Become overly defensive. Make obvious lies. That sort of thing. Not everyone is a good liar, even over the Internet.
Yes, let’s put them under pressure, I agree. That worked well for me last game. Oh, and you can stop voting for me while you’re at it.
There's been much discussion throughout as to why [sturmhauke] wasn't killed the first night by either the mob, the Vigilante, or the Serial Killer. I think he's mob (as noted above). But if he isn't, there should still have been a very good chance for him getting offed by the Vig or SK for the very same reasons he should've been targeted by the mafia. And yet he still wasn't picked. That good a player, and three different factions didn't pick him? C'mon. If he's not mafia, then he's one of the other two killers.
I suppose it makes sense for the SK to target good players, to create confusion, but why would the Vig want to do that? Remember, the Vig is on the town’s side, while the SK is completely independent. The Vig’s best strategy is to kill players most likely to be mafia, not because of their skill level.

Look, guys, if the mob or SK think I'm dangerous, they'll probably just kill me tonight. They can't off everybody at once. Voting for me because you think I should have been killed last night because you think the scum think I think too much is, well, a poorly thought out reason to vote for me.

Anyway, here are my trust and distrust lists:

Trust: nobody, yet. Maybe Rysto, a little, for the spreadsheet.
Distrust: everyone who voted for me - Aguecheek, Fern Forest, Menocchio, and Queuing. In addition, I think Menocchio and MadTheSwine have it in for me because I helped get both their furry selves lynched last time.

And in conclusion, I shall vote for Aguecheek, who is quite zealous in leading the charge against me, while wielding some rather spurious reasoning.

*Color tags stripped from quotes to prevent vote miscounts.

Malacandra

03-29-2007, 02:58 AM

<ooc>Sorry folks, I saw the news of the kill last night (UK) but had to go deal with a sick kid.</ooc>

Yeesh, what a mess. Too early to pin anything down with so much still unknown and yet it sure feels like severe pressure with the body count hitting three on the first night and every likelihood it will continue to do so unless someone manages to take out the SK!

Personally I think Autolycus fits the psych profile of someone who'd think he was being no end of clever by running a double bluff, so I'll cheerfully vote Autolycus for now. But, call it a hunch or intuition or whatever, I'm not sure about hocow. Can't really explain further. It's hard enough trying to digest >100 posts without too obviously goofing off on the company nickel.

Fern Forest

03-29-2007, 04:26 AM

If your car trunk has more then 2 dead bodies in it you might be a mobster.
If you're constantly telling your wife to keep her nose out of your business you might be a mobster.
If you keep a bag of cement in the back of your car 'just in case' you might be a mobster.
If your last name is an adverb you might be a mobster.

Ok, now I'm a dead man ain't I?

zuma

03-29-2007, 04:41 AM

I'm most suspicious of Queuing at the moment.

His fishing for experience information in post 268 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405659&postcount=268) bothered me.

His explanation in post 367 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407265&postcount=367) didn't sit well with me.

Lakai said it seemed like I was trying fish out the intelligent players. What I was doing was trying to see the experience of players, to see if someone would lie about it, and could later be caught in that lie. If you lie once, you should die. Simple as that. Maybe it wasn’t such a good idea.

How exactly did you think you were going to catch someone in a lie? I highly doubt anyone who played in the first werewolf game would lie about it. Just about everyone here either participated in that game or followed along. If they were playing somewhere else, well, you wouldn't catch them anyway.

Your first post made it seem as if you were looking for the best townies to execute, and your explanation doesn't make much sense in my eyes.

I am still wondering why Queuing would ask that we should not be suspicious of Enfant Terrible. He does so here. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405976&postcount=304)

He never gave his reasons and I would like to hear them.

Also after Pleonast casted suspicion (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406246&postcount=322) on him for asking not to lynch Enfant Terrible, Enfant Terrible did not appear on his trusted list in his next post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406283&postcount=327) . This is inconsistent behavior, which is compatible with someone who has to lie a lot.

I'd like answers to these questions as well.

Autoclyse and his speaking like mafia is bothering me... I'm not sure if he's being so over the top about it because he wants to be the class clown, or if he's going so far over the line that he wants us to think there would be no way actual mafia would do it.

I'd like to here some actual contributions from him, because if he's town, he's not helping our cause at this point.

Trust: Master Blaster, Rysto, Lakai
Distrust: Queuing, Enfant Terrible, Autoclyse

As far as Sturmhauke goes, yeah it's interesting he's still here, but Mafia's dnooman choice was just as defensable. I need more than failure to die to put a vote on someone. Now that he's started posting we can watch how he behaves, which is how I'll ultimately judge him.

And finally, Vote: Queuing

zuma

03-29-2007, 04:58 AM

Also, my apologies to everyone whose name i misspelled or otherwise screwed up. Autolycus and Blaster Master.

kivvik

03-29-2007, 05:43 AM

Man, thread grows four pages every time I get a chance to look at it. What I've gotten so far:

Autolycus I'm unsure of. He acts all strange, but I can't tell if it's just an act, or if he's crazy. Or both. I'll give him a glance, but no FoS yet.

Rysto I trust for his spreadsheet, in spite of the supposed risk. Brave or stupid, I cannot say.
Winston,I like for honestly no real reason, I just hope for an encore of last time.
The Various Dead: I trust as there are presumably no zombies in this game.
Blaster: Seems to have a good head on him. He's thrown so much out there to go over, be it cover or a serious attempt at layings out for those of us new to the gameplay. Trust so far.
Enfant Terrible: I find the chest-beating 'Kill me and kill a loyal townie' stuff... annoying. The more someone does that, the more desperate they seem to want to be believed. Not so much with the trusting right now.

Suburban I distrust, for doing the trust/mistrust thing I was going to do :mad:
Pleonast I have my eye on. You unvoted me sure, but to hate me for my palindrominess? /sniffle (when I made my name I actually didn't palindrome on purpose, it was just a name.)
More to come when I awaken and see all the new posts, hoping to get some thoughts on the rest of you. No vote, no real FoS yet.

glee

03-29-2007, 07:15 AM

Seriously, we have no information to base anything on at this point. There is absolutely no reason for any of us to trust anyone. Of course, there really isn't much reason to distrust anyone at this point either, but its so much more fun...

You do have some information already. Some posters are giving analysis and suggestions - good for the Town. Others are just making Mafia jokes or even lurking.

There are a couple of things which have piqued my interest thus far:

glee was very defensive when Smitty pointed the FOS at him (post 267). A while later, he posted this

P.S. If I were Mafia and only ChrisK claimed, I would leave him alone. Then the Town would lynch him for me.
He seems to be going out of his way to make sure we all know he isn't Mafia.

Lynch glee.

Smitty didn't have any reason to pick me. He just chose randomly.
I think such random choices are a mistake, because once a couple of townies have chosen another townie at random, the Mafia can pile in and get them safely lynched. (Remember there's probably 9-10 Mafia in this game - more than enough for that purpose.)

Secondly please check my meaning.
First came ChrisK's suggestion for Open Detection (post 273).
Then came this reply:

Am I missing something? Didn't you just guarantee your death tonight? I'm new to this game, there are three outcomes as I see it:

1. You're actually a Cop.
2. You're not a Cop, but you're not Mafia either.
3. You're in the Mafia.

If 1 or 2 is true, the Mafia (who know you're not one of them) would kill you, because it doesn't matter to them if you're actually a Cop or not. If 3 is true, you'll be alive tomorrow, in which case we should lynch you then.

Which I agree with.
So I built on FlyingCowofDoom's analysis and realised that the Mafia could leave Citizen ChrisK alive (and kill someone else), whereupon the Town would mistakenly lynch ChrisK.
I don't consider this 'going out of my way to deny Mafia', just helpful analysis.
Soon after ChrisK dropped his suggestion.

Now the Town want to lynch (in order):

1. Mafia
2. Serial Killer
3. Citizens who don't post anything useful
4. Citizens who do analyse (doubly useful for the Town, since they will presumably also be active in the final stages)
5. Named Citizens

Obviously the first two categories are way better for the Town.
But unless there are any clues, we should lynch category 3. (Do you really want your ultimate fate to lie in the hands of a Citizen who just posts jokes?)

Finally I trust : Blaster Master, Fern Forest, Flying Cow of Doom, Fretful Porpentine, MadTheSwine, MonkeyMensch, Pleonast, Rysto and Storyteller0910

I don't trust: Autolycus, Smitty and Winston Smith

Lynch Autolycus

Menocchio

03-29-2007, 07:38 AM

I trust: Myself. Until there's an undisputed role claim, I have no reason to believe anybody else. Even Rysto's invaluable spreadsheet might be a dodge. Dnooman used a similar strategy last game.

I distrust: sturmhauke, of course, MadtheSwine, Autolycus, Enfant Terrible

I strongly disagree that the SK will be necessarily pro-town. They might be for the first few nights by default, but if it looks like the Mafia is winning, they'll switch to a pro-Mafia strategy really quickly.

zuma

03-29-2007, 07:50 AM

Autolycus, your village idiot schtick needs to end here and now. You are piling up votes, and my worry is that you are actually a townie, and you're distracting us from finding real mafia.

I'll again ask Queuing to explain himself.

Other distractions are "Why is sturmhauke alive"? Frankly, he was the bad-ass because he was the seer. He had the most powerful role. Dnooman had a much tougher time of it as he had to lie his entire way through the game. I'm tired of re-hashing the last game. Let's focus on the current one.

Autolycus

03-29-2007, 07:54 AM

Cazzata! I's wakes up after a hard days work, and whats do I's see? A fuckin lynch mob at my doorstep. Mama always saids I weres a popular boy...

Heys youz guys, I gots nothings to explain. I 'aint never killed nobodys.

Infischiarsi! Believe whats ya want, dont bothers me none, I's just wish youz didnt wake me up so violent-like, ya bunch of ceffos.

Autolycus

03-29-2007, 07:59 AM

Autolycus, your village idiot schtick needs to end here and now. You are piling up votes, and my worry is that you are actually a townie, and you're distracting us from finding real mafia.

Makes me tough guy. I 'aint give a shit about no "mafia" see? Peoples die every day, dont mean it mean somethin' You's dont like it, then maybes you dont belong in this town.

Ya know, ya seem suspicious to me, but I'ms a non-violent type. So leaves me the fuck alone, capiche?

Gadarene

03-29-2007, 08:09 AM

Are there any players who haven't yet posted?

(I might take a crack at this later today once my judge leaves chambers, but I wanted to throw it out there.)

MadTheSwine

03-29-2007, 08:11 AM

Just wanted to point out that the VIG and SK can kill Mafia also,seems like some of you are forgetting that.

Smitty

03-29-2007, 08:14 AM

The three people who have been acting the most suspicious to me:

Enfant Terrible - in an earlier post (and I'm NOT going to dig through all this for a number) you stated something to the effect that people who do a lot of analysis this early in the game tend to have power roles. A townie should NEVER give away any information, or even speculation, about who has power roles unless it is to save that person from a lynch. Anything else just gives ammo to scum. Why in the world would you do that?

Autolycus - you may just be clowning around, but if you are not scum, you are hurting the town. You are heading toward a lynch and you don't seem to care. Lynching a townie is bad news for the town.

glee - your continued hyper-defensiveness of what was a random vote does not look good. In fact, it looks very suspicious, indeed. If you wouldn't have continued to harp on it, I would have unvoted you by now. Go look at mafiascum.net. Random votes at the beginning of a game are the NORM!

zuma

03-29-2007, 08:17 AM

SK or vig kill would be the best thing for Autolycus at this point.

Malacandra

03-29-2007, 08:18 AM

storyteller0910

03-29-2007, 08:19 AM

I have no fear of being pegged as scum. Lynch me, lynch a vanilla townie. It happens. I'd prefer it not happen, but then, that's the point of the game.

I'm actually going with my own strategy, which, until I can find a better way to play, seems to be the easiest way to play Townie. Always tell the truth. Full disclosure. If I reach the status of confirmed townie and stick around long enough, hopefully I can actually help with the whole 'deducing the scum' part later, but for now all I can do is hope the guys with the guns stay away from me and continue playing Honest John.

I acknowledge that there's no way for me to really prove I'm a townie unless the detective starts laying breadcrumbs that I'm innocent. That would be a blunder greater than getting involved in a land war in Asia, so I'm perfectly content to lay out the truth and hope for the best.

OK, but the problem right now is that the above post is utterly indistinguishable from what you'd say if you were scum. "I'm going to be honest" is something that every one of us, honest and dis-, would say, right?

More significant to me is the fact that you didn't address the actual content of my post, which is that your post (#255) seems designed to warn people away from actually participating in discussion and analysis (or it's an attempt to out the pro-town power players, which isn't good either). If this was not your intent, what was?

And then you post the above, in which you say that you have no information on which to base your own analysis. Well, we now have several trillion posts to this thread, and every one is evidence of some kind. Is there no one or nothing that seems suspicious or worth discussing to you? My point is, if you're really a Townie, we don't want to lynch you; give us a reason not to.

Anyway, since I went to bed last night there have been quite a few additional developments, so I'm going to do a bit of reading before I cast an official vote.

Fretful Porpentine

03-29-2007, 08:34 AM

Trust: myself, Rysto (with reservations), glee (with reservations)

Distrust: Enfant Terrible, Menoccio, Queuing, Aguecheek, Fern Forest

And I'm going to vote lynch Queuing, because I'm deeply suspicious of this whole "lynch sturmhauke" strategy, despite the fact that I'm not sure I actually trust sturmhauke.

zuma

03-29-2007, 08:37 AM

Autolycus, if you turn up town, which I think you are, I'll have no problem asking that you get banned from future games, as I think you're breaking this one. If you're mafia, you're doing a good job at distracting the rest of us.

ArizonaTeach

03-29-2007, 08:37 AM

I'm a tad uncomfortable with the notion of "so-and-so has been quiet since he or she was called out" because this page grows a couple of pages every few hours. So three pages between responses shouldn't necessarily count against someone. I say that not to defend Autolycus, because I am swiftly reaching the point of thinking he's not only being annoying, but intentionally unhelpful, but because I'm sure there are players who might not even realize the game has officially started.

That said, I see several more people have stated what I said about Enfant Terrible. I'm going to go ahead and commit.

Vote Enfant Terrible.

Autolycus on deck.

Autolycus

03-29-2007, 08:38 AM

CaerieD

03-29-2007, 08:39 AM

Malacandra

03-29-2007, 08:48 AM

Yes, the vig can kill town, but he loses if the scum win, so it's in his interest to kill scum if he can. The SK doesn't care who he kills, he just wants to be alive at game end. It's slightly to his benefit to kill town as the town only win when all the scum are dead.

Enlarging: The town must kill all the scum to win, but the scum win once they can outvote the town. I think the town's higher death rate soon offsets their advantage in numbers - not that the SK's got that much of an edge in telling scum from town, but if he could, he'd rather kill town.

(I knew there was a point I was trying to make here, but for a minute there, I couldn't quite remember what it was.)

FlyingCowOfDoom

03-29-2007, 08:50 AM

My god this thread is huge.

After thinking about Autolycus for a while, I think he's just a poor playing townie looking for attention. Therefore, I'm going to unvote Autolycus. He's still on my shit list, but I'm not ready to lynch him yet.

I trust: Rysto, glee, myself
I distrust: Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, Queuing, and Aguecheek

Since several people have the same thoughts I do about him, I'm going to go ahead and vote Enfant Terrible.

--FCOD

Gadarene

03-29-2007, 08:51 AM

Thanks for the tally, CaerieD.

Y'know, Autolycus is not only a knucklehead, he's a visible knucklehead. And I think there's a non-zero chance that he's just goofing around with the mafia-speak, although (1) as others have noted, it's an idiotic thing to do; and (2) if he's running a double bluff, it'll become increasingly clear and we can pick him off at our leisure. If it's true he's just a vanilla who gets his kicks out of messing with us, it'll hurt the town if we lynch him now.

So: unvote Autolycus

And, for the reasons stated by many others: lynch Enfant Terrible

Gadarene

03-29-2007, 08:52 AM

Wow, simulpost. You and I think alike, FCOD. :)

Smitty

03-29-2007, 08:52 AM

You are right on the money, CaerieD. I have made a spread sheet of my own, here (http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?id=o15083838140779034378.5240882531307098589.12519454576943791885.3079134702616988348#)

It lists who voted for whom, how many votes and unvotes each player has cast, a running tally of how many lynch votes each player has, and if you scroll down, there is a more detailed voting history so you can see the timing of each vote. This is current as of this post. I will update if anyone finds this useful.

Smitty

03-29-2007, 08:56 AM

Well, hell. By the time I posted, 2 more votes had occurred. Still, tell me if it's useful and I will continue.

zuma

03-29-2007, 08:56 AM

So if I've counted right, these are the votes so far:

(5) Autolycus - Enfant Terrible, Flying Cow of Doom, Gadarene, glee, Malacandra
(4) Sturmhauke - Aguecheek, Fern Forest, Menocchio, Queuing
(3) Enfant Terrible - Blaster Master, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach
(3) Queuing - Lakai, Winston Smith, Fretful Porpentine
(2) glee - Smitty, Suburban Plankton
(1) Aguecheek - Sturmhauke
(1) chrisk - MadTheSwine
(1) Gadarene - Rysto

Thanks for the vote update, but I voted Queuing...

I also request that our mod do more frequent vote updates... I appreciate his efforts and all.. but more frequent vote updates would be nice. maybe a couple times every day?

CaerieD

03-29-2007, 08:59 AM

Ah, thanks, Smitty.

Gotcha, zuma. I'd noted votes alphabetically by voter's name so I must have just missed you down on the bottom of my list.

After thinking about it further and having little further to go on in the Enfant Terrible camp, I think I'm going to have to vote Sturmhauke.

zuma

03-29-2007, 08:59 AM

Dont strains too many brain cells on my account :rolleyes:

That's all we're asking for. non-idiotic posts. Now how about posting some real content?

Queuing

03-29-2007, 09:02 AM

Smitty the linik doesn't work for me.

Malacandra

03-29-2007, 09:02 AM

Never let it be said that I couldn't get into the lynch-mob mentality. Unvote Autolycus. Lynch Enfant Terrible.

I still entertain doubts about hocow for no particular reason, and Autolycus because he's being a dick.

I trust glee, Gadarene and zuma.

Queuing

03-29-2007, 09:03 AM

As asked, by both Lakia and Zuma (I believe it was those 2 at least, I know they have voted for me at least), here is my defense and reasoning for posts # 268, 304, 322, 327 and 367.

I first asked for the experience of players to try to find out if people would lie about it. If people would deny knowing what they are doing, and then appear to do some tricky move. This would not be definitive, but with so little to go on I thought it might help. As I said in that post, it might not be a good idea. I suppose it wasn’t. (#268)

#304 and 367. This is when I cast my vote for Sturmhauke. My reasons are not very good, I admit. Who actually has good reasons right now though? Most of the reasons stated have to do with the analysis of posts. For this reason some of the more active people have been voted for and some of the people who are active but not saying anything substantive My vote was not based on who has said what but rather who has been killed, and who has been left alive. I explained my reasoning in #367. I think the Mafia killed Dnooman. This was to get rid of a good player. I think Sturmhauke played better last game,so I would have killed him if my goal was to get rid of the good players. I placed OAOW as the SK kill because he was calling for less talking about nothing cluttering up the thread. A cluttered thread helps the SK and Mafia as it makes it harder for the Citizens to re-read and analyze. That left Captain Carrot as the VG kill by default.

In #322 Pleonast says he mistrusts me for removing Enfant Terrible from my list of lynching. I did this because of Chrisk and his possible role claim. It might not be a role claim. It might just be a bad idea from him. However he did say he claimed to be a cop, of some flavour, and investigated Enfant who turned out to be Citizen. While I don’t believe Chrisk necessarily, and it may have been a hasty move by him, one that he has somewhat retracted, with so little to go on I don’t see how we can just dismiss this bit of information. I think Chrisk now needs to act like a cop, and each day he MUST give us information. This information we will act upon at some point. I have suggested day 3, as that would give us 3 people to choose from, unless he points at Mafia before then. If his information is wrong, we lynch him. Simple as that. Therefore for the same reason I don’t want to lynch Chrisk, I don’t want to lynch Enfant Terrible. I don’t see anything gained by lynching Enfant Terrible (unless of course he is Mafia) at this time. I think it better to make Chrisk keep telling us information, if he doesn’t we kill him. If he does, on the 3rd day we kill Enfant then. However I won’t be crushed if we do kill Enfant Terrible, my only reasoning for leaving him off is because of what Chrisk said and that is probably based on very bad information. However we have little information, good or bad at this point.

In post #327 I laid out my list of Trust/Distrust. At that time it was as follows:

Trust: Pleonast, Chrisk
Don't Trust: Sturmhauke, Gaderene, pimaspinner

My reasons for distrusting Sturmhauke are out there. It isn’t for the best reasons, but again we have very little to go on. So there it is. By his mere existence I find it fishy. I don’t trust Gadarene (Did I spell it right this time? :)) because he posted numerous times during the night, and at that time had posted very little. This is no longer true. My reasoning was the same for pimaspinner. Posting about drinking, and then saying little during the day gives the appearance of posting a lot while actually saying very little. I trusted Pleonast because his list of people to mistrust/trust was similar to mine.

That is my reasoning so far. Does that make it any clearer?

storyteller0910

03-29-2007, 09:06 AM

So with Flying Cow of Doom and Gadarene's updated votes, the list now looks like this:

(5) Enfant Terrible - Blaster Master, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, Flying Cow of Doom, Gadarene
(4) Sturmhauke - Aguecheek, Fern Forest, Menocchio, Queuing
(3) Autolycus - Enfant Terrible, glee, Malacandra
(3) Queuing - Lakai, Winston Smith, Fretful Porpentine
(2) glee - Smitty, Suburban Plankton
(1) Aguecheek - Sturmhauke
(1) chrisk - MadTheSwine
(1) Gadarene - Rysto

I've re-read the whole thread - this game may get me fired - and thoughts abound:

I trust:
sturmhauke: The big push to lynch him based on fairly vague reasoning makes me think that he is definitely town, and that somewhere among those who have voted for him there might be a Mafioso trying to get us to eliminate one of our stronger assets without wasting a night kill.

Rysto: For the spreadsheet, and also for the way he has approached the game so far from an analysis standpoint.

chrisk: I don't see his change in strategies to be a bad thing; I read it as someone who presented what he thought would be a pro-town idea, and then when given arguments against it dropped it. Sticking too closely to a strategy that the town as a whole thinks won't work seems like a bad play.

I don't trust:

Aguecheek, Fern Forest, Menocchio, Queuing: Because they are the voters for sturmhauke. I definitely don't think all of them are Mafia, but I think one of them might be.

Autolycus is hard to figure. The thing is, he's essentially doing exactly what I've accused Enfant Terrible of doing: he's refusing to engage in the game, making a bunch of content-free posts to satisfy the requirement that he participate but never contributing anything that might help his ostensible team win the game. This is exactly how I'd expect Mafia to behave. Gadarene is saying that we'll be able to tell if he's running a double bluff, but I can't see how we'd do that if he never posts any actual content at all. But I'd hate to waste a perfectly good lynch on someone who's just trying to mess around with us, and...

Enfant Terrible still hasn't addressed my concerns in any meaningful way. Pending further information, I -

vote Enfant Terrible

Gadarene

03-29-2007, 09:10 AM

storyteller0910:

sturmhauke: The big push to lynch him based on fairly vague reasoning makes me think that he is definitely town, and that somewhere among those who have voted for him there might be a Mafioso trying to get us to eliminate one of our stronger assets without wasting a night kill.

I agree with this reasoning.

CaerieD

03-29-2007, 09:12 AM

Corrected and updated with the newest votes:

(6) Enfant Terrible - Blaster Master, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, Malacandra, Flying Cow of Doom, storyteller0910
(5) Sturmhauke - Aguecheek, Fern Forest, Menocchio, Queuing, CaerieD
(3) Autolycus - Enfant Terrible, Gadarene, glee
(3) Queuing - Lakai, Winston Smith, zuma
(2) glee - Smitty, Suburban Plankton
(1) chrisk - MadTheSwine
(1) Gadarene - Rysto
(1) Aguecheek - Sturmhauke

Gadarene

03-29-2007, 09:14 AM

Caerie, you've got me still voting for Autolycus. I switched to Enfant Terrible a couple of posts ago.

Queuing

03-29-2007, 09:19 AM

Umm I have a different vote count. Can we get an actual official one? Here is mine:

7 votes- Enfant Terrible (ArizonaTeach, BlasterMaster, FCOD, Gadarene, Malacandra, Pleonast, Storyteller0910)
5 votes -Sturmhauke – (Queuing, Menecchio, CaerieD, Aguecheek, Fernforest)
3 votes - Queuing - Lakai,Fretful Porpentine, Zuma
2 votes -glee - Smitty, Suburban Plankton
2 votes -Autolycus – (Enfant Terrible, glee)
Unvoted him ( FCOD, Gadarene, malacandra)
1 vote - Chrisk - MadTheSwine
1 vote- Aguecheek – Sturmhauke

I didn't see where Winston Smith voted for me. Quite likely I missed it though.

Smitty

03-29-2007, 09:19 AM

Here (http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?id=o15083838140779034378.5240882531307098589.12519454576943791885.3028669042291307997) is the link again. And Enfant Terrible now has 7 votes, not 6.

Queuing

03-29-2007, 09:21 AM

That link first brings me to a login page for google, so I do it, then it says I don't have permission to view it.

CaerieD

03-29-2007, 09:22 AM

Gadarene, oy, I do, and I mixed up Pleonast's vote with Pygmy Rugger. This gets massively confusing with this many people, and not everyone's voted yet, either:

(8) Enfant Terrible - Blaster Master, Pleonast, ArizonaTeach, Malacandra, Flying Cow of Doom, storyteller0910, Gadarene
(5) Sturmhauke - Aguecheek, Fern Forest, Menocchio, Queuing, CaerieD
(3) Queuing - Lakai, Winston Smith, zuma
(2) Autolycus - Enfant Terrible, glee
(2) glee - Smitty, Suburban Plankton
(1) chrisk - MadTheSwine
(1) Gadarene - Rysto
(1) Aguecheek - Sturmhauke

Those who haven't voted yet (or I missed it): Autolycus, bewha, chrisk, cowgirl, hocow, Kat, Kivvik, Lakai, MonkeyMensch, nesta, pimaspinner, Pygmy Rugger, StarvingButStrong.

Looks like we are currently two votes away from an ahead of scheduling lynching of: Enfant Terrible.

I'd like a more official vote count soon over my continued ineptitude here!

Queuing

03-29-2007, 09:24 AM

That is still only 7 for Enfant.

And if Winston Smith did vote for me I have 4 for sure.

ArizonaTeach

03-29-2007, 09:25 AM

Yeah, I only see seven votes there for Enfant Terrible....

CaerieD

03-29-2007, 09:25 AM

I'm killing myself without the edit feature. :smack:

I also forgot to list Fretful Porpentine's vote.

Smitty

03-29-2007, 09:26 AM

Here (http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pCnefFt-OVNHdERwU5Vq7SA) .

Dammit. It should work now. And Enfant Terrible is at 7.

CaerieD

03-29-2007, 09:26 AM

Bless you, Smitty.

StarvingButStrong

03-29-2007, 09:28 AM

Slightly trust: Fern Forest, Master Blaster

Slightly distrust: Queueing, MadtheSwine (and nearly everybody else.)

Mostly distrust: Autolycus. As others have said, maybe he's just a DAW, but I can't help suspecting he's scum and wants to be able to crow over surviving a long time even though he rubbed our noses in his mafia-schtick.

I've been pondering what kind of analysis might best help me. I'm leaning towards rating each post on a scale from +3 to -3. Positive points for analysis that seems intended as honestly helpful and (to my mind) well reasoned. 0 points for joky/chatty posts. Negative points for, well, posts that seem contradictory or too defensive or promoting not-well-substantiated attacks on others. Possibly some added points or demerits for being active vs. totally lurking.... this is a work in progress.

What I dearly would like to know is what sex each player is. It's well established that men and women have different posting styles -- men tending towards more positive statements, for example, while women tend to phrase even ideas they're sure of in more tentative terms. Could I ask that everyone confirm their sex in one of their next posts? It'll save the hamsters from a lot of searching.

For the record: I (StarvingButStrong) am female.

Gadarene

03-29-2007, 09:33 AM

It's well established that men and women have different posting styles -- men tending towards more positive statements, for example, while women tend to phrase even ideas they're sure of in more tentative terms.

I like to think I'm a man.

:)

Queuing

03-29-2007, 09:33 AM

Works for me now Smitty[/I] thanks. Our lists seem to tally as well (with exception of my neglect to put Gadarene on mine)

storyteller0910

03-29-2007, 09:35 AM

I am male.

/brief hijack/ Do you all realize that we have now managed more than 1/3 as many posts as the previous Werewolf thread had, and we've done it before the end of our first game day?

Queuing

03-29-2007, 09:36 AM

What I dearly would like to know is what sex each player is.
For the record: I (StarvingButStrong) am female.

I am a man.

Gadarene

03-29-2007, 09:38 AM

By the way---and I hope she takes no offense---but I now slightly mistrust StarvingButStrong, as her exhortation that we all post our genders has the potential to create even more noise in a thread where the signal is already overly fuzzy. It may well help StarvingButStrong to know that I'm a guy and she's a girl and FlyingCowofDoom is a giant flying cow, but the benefits seem somewhat minimal in comparison to the extra thirty-odd contentless posts that we will all then have to wade through as a result.

Not that people should stop posting their genders, but maybe if it was done (as I completely failed to do) in conjunction with a post of some substance?

Winston Smith

03-29-2007, 09:39 AM

Every time I hit F5, this damned thread's a page longer. And there's so many of you I can't keep my own suspicions straight in my head. From what I see so far, I'm leaning toward...

Trust: Autolycus. I don't think he's being a dick, and I I don't think he's trying to fuck with us. I think he's getting into the spirit of the game and trying to have a little fun. And I ask ya, what's wrong with that??? I, for one, am entertained by his posts and have a hard time understanding why some people are getting so fucking nasty. Seriously. This is a fucking game, for crissakes. Chill the fuck out.

Best-case scenario here is folks will take this to heart and get some perspective. If we string him up and he's vindicated we've knocked off an innocent. Oops. Worst-case scenario is that Autolycus gets lynched, is revealed as Mafia, and I've idiotically implicated myself for sticking up for him.

Distrust: MadTheSwine, mainly because he implicated me already, and I still haven't figured out why. Twice.

I think he is Mafia and trying to get the Doc to waste a protect on him.If 1 or 2 are true, the Mafia will certainly leave him alone and we waste the kill anyhow.Contrary to my earlier post about lynching a returning player,and as much as I think sturmhauke and Winston Smith are Mafia.I gotta cast my vote for chrisk.

and

Trust: Rysto

Mistrust: sturmhauke(Strange he wasn't killed,I would have voted to kill him if i were Mafia) Winston Smith(I think the Mafia left me alone for Winstons benefit,had I been killed,Winston dies) chrisk(Wants information) Sub Plank (strange post)

I guess I'm calling you out, MadTheSwine. Either offer up some evidence or lay off. I'm not Mafia, but you don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Capice?

Distrust: Enfant Terrible, because of the obligatory two-eyes finger point.

Of course.

*does the obligatory two-eyes to two-eyes finger point*

I see that we have the earliest vestiges of theorizing going on, and in my limited experience with this game, players who provide early breakdowns tend to have some sort of special role the rest of us just don't have... hmmm.

I trust storyteller0910.

I distrust Blaster Master.

I trust Rysto, primarily because he's doing us a service by posting the spreadsheet, but the spreadsheet could arguably be window dressing for the wolves (deep cover). I'm gonna try not to over-think it. Mennochio points out here that Rysto has mis-recorded a vote. Hell, we all make mistakes, but if I were Mafia I'd say a good plan would be the subversive posting of false information under the guise of helping the town. I'd say Rysto is trustworthy as long as he's posting accurate info to the spreadsheet. Again, for now Rysto is squarely in my circle of trust. so to speak.

Rysto, you counted my vote for sturmhauke wrong, putting it in someone else's row. Good sheet though. Very helpful.

As for my vote, I concede that it's not a great reason, but I don't want to do the random thing so I'll stick to this until someone gives me a better one. I'm voting at all because I agree with the theory that voting, not mere accusations, is what yields useful data and because scum are more apt to give themselves away when the pressure is on them.

That's it for now. I've got work to do and I've spent over an hour reading this damned monster thread when I should be sysadmining.

CaerieD

03-29-2007, 09:47 AM

I was thinking the same thing, Gadarene. It's likely to just muddy the waters by filling things up with more useless chatter and making it more difficult to sift through for valuable information.

Smitty - I believe I marked Winston Smith down as having casted a vote incorrectly, but he is in the game. He's not on your spreadsheet, though. Might want to fix that.

For the record, I'm a woman.

Smitty

03-29-2007, 09:48 AM

Thanks, CaerieD. I just did a cut and paste from an early player list where he was left off. I'll include that in the next update.

zuma

03-29-2007, 09:54 AM

Pleonast

03-29-2007, 10:03 AM

Master Blaster, you're right that our trust/mistrust lists does give some info to the Mafia, but it helps the Town as well. They're like mini-versions of Rysto's spreadsheet. And when we get killed it'll help the remaining Citizens make better-informed decisions on who to lynch. That's essential.

kivvik, I apologize for voting you. Just a random shot in the sky to get the ball rolling (sorry for the mixed metaphor). Notice you're not on my mistrust list. Although, you haven't earned my trust yet, either. :D All in good time.

Queuing, your squirming will not help. chrisk's "claim" was only hypothetical. No one now expects him to keep it up.

I trust: Blaster Master, Chrisk, Gadarene, Rysto, storyteller0910.
I mistrust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, Menocchio, Queuing.

Now trusting glee. Nice analysis.

Mistrusting Autolycus for continuing with contentless posts. He's not helping the Town. I'm keeping my vote for Enfant Terrible for now, but I'll be happy to switch to Auto.

And Aguecheek for following Menocchio in voting sturmhauke just for surviving. 2/3rds chance he's scum? Bad math! I agree with Rysto that killing good players hurts the town more than the scum. Your later defense is unconvincing. And notice that sturm is not on my trusted list. Not enough to go on yet.

The others continue to confirm my trust/mistrust ratings.

Sheesh, the thread's advanced a page while I was compiling this post!

MadTheSwine

03-29-2007, 10:08 AM

Blaster Master

03-29-2007, 10:17 AM

I trust storyteller0910.

I distrust Blaster Master.
because you defended the rest of your trust/distrust list, can you explain why you trust storyteller and why you do not trust me? Of course, if it's nothing more than gut, that's perfectly reasonable, since that's what most of my list is.

FWIW, I think I have a beat on how much I trust most of the people and what I think their roles might be. Maybe I missed the posts, but I don't seem to have any read on cowgirl, Kat, and nesta.

Also, for what it's worth, I think I have keys on several pro-townie roles, I won't say which roles and how many to minimize the information I give to the mafia, so if you are one, please be a bit more careful with your posts.

Queuing

03-29-2007, 10:17 AM

Queuing, your squirming will not help. chrisk's "claim" was only hypothetical. No one now expects him to keep it up.

I trust: Blaster Master, Chrisk, Gadarene, Rysto, storyteller0910.
I mistrust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, Menocchio, Queuing.

Others have expressed the same sentiments towards Chrisk as I have, including people in your trusted list.

In post # 309 and #346 Blaster Master expressed the same sentiment as mine. That Chrisk continue to post his thoughts, encouraging him to do so. In post #316 [/B]StoryTeller0910[B] also expressed a similar sentiment. While these were a while ago, I have seen no retraction of this thinking by either of these people.

StarvingButStrong

03-29-2007, 10:18 AM

By the way---and I hope she takes no offense---but I now slightly mistrust StarvingButStrong, as her exhortation that we all post our genders has the potential to create even more noise in a thread where the signal is already overly fuzzy.

<snip>

Not that people should stop posting their genders, but maybe if it was done (as I completely failed to do) in conjunction with a post of some substance?

Hmmm. No offense, but nNow I am slightly suspicious of Gadarene, for mistating (deliberately?) what I said. My words:

Could I ask that everyone confirm their sex in one of their next posts?

IOW, I didn't ask people to rush out and make a post they wouldn't have otherwise, I asked that they include their sex in a post they were otherwise making. Surely a three word sentence (e.g. "I am male") added to a post being made for other reasons would have little to no impact on how long it takes to analyze this thread.

brewha

03-29-2007, 10:19 AM

Eesh, this is hard to keep up with. I'm getting suspicious of Blaster Master. He is leading the charge here, but I'm not sure who's side he is on. It would be easy to trust him since he has posted so much content, but that may seem like something a GF would do.

OTOH, if he is town, Winston Smith is the first (that I recall) showed mistrust for him. So he is either mafia or under the same impression that I am.

I'm not satisfied with MonkeyMensch's defense of not being scum, so I still don't trust him. I pointed the FOS at him to get is reaction. I don't like it.

And then there's Auto who whether he is scum or not, he is not helping the cause for the town.

Need more info before I cast a vote.

zuma

03-29-2007, 10:19 AM

ArizonaTeach

03-29-2007, 10:19 AM

Trust: Autolycus. I don't think he's being a dick, and I I don't think he's trying to fuck with us. I think he's getting into the spirit of the game and trying to have a little fun. And I ask ya, what's wrong with that??? I, for one, am entertained by his posts and have a hard time understanding why some people are getting so fucking nasty. Seriously. This is a fucking game, for crissakes. Chill the fuck out.Man, this game breeds paranoia. I'm looking at this thinking, "hmm...why's he defending Autolycus so much?"
Thing is, considering the fantastic flame-out...certain...people...had last game, is it any wonder the players who are playing to win are going to get fed up real quickly with those that aren't?

Best-case scenario here is folks will take this to heart and get some perspective. If we string him up and he's vindicated we've knocked off an innocent. Oops. Worst-case scenario is that Autolycus gets lynched, is revealed as Mafia, and I've idiotically implicated myself for sticking up for him.True, true. On the other hand, players have asked him to bring it down a notch, and he's refusing. He's in danger of getting lynched because of it, and he's refusing. That is not cooperative behavior. Doesn't make him a mafia, sure, but it's not helping any case for innocence. If anything, being "caught" might make him even more brazen with it because he thinks if he backs down now people will get suspicious.

NAF1138

03-29-2007, 10:27 AM

Let me know if I missed anyone but here are the votes as I see em:

(1) - Augecheek (Sturmhauke)
(2) - Autolycus (Enfant Terrible, glee)
(1) - chrisk (MadTheSwine)
(7) - Enfant Terrible (ArizonaTeach,Blaster Master,Flying Cow of Doom, Gadarene, Malacandra, Pleonast, Storyteller0910)
(1) - Gadarene (Rysto)
(2) - Glee (Smitty, Suburban Plankton)
(3) - Queuing (Lakai, Fretful Porpentine, Zuma)
(5) - Sturmhauke (CaerieD, Aguecheek, Fern Forest, Menocchio, Queuing)

I would post them more often, but I am not sure I have time. I will try to post one twice a day though until things slow down a bit.

Also a clarification since I was asked. The SK wins if they are alive at the end...and there is only one winner. So if the SK wins. everyone else loses.

If you have questions for me that you want to post in the thread try and seperate them out so I can quickly find them while scanning,or PM me also so I know there is a question to look out for. Thanks!

storyteller0910

03-29-2007, 10:28 AM

Trust: Autolycus. I don't think he's being a dick, and I I don't think he's trying to fuck with us. I think he's getting into the spirit of the game and trying to have a little fun. And I ask ya, what's wrong with that??? I, for one, am entertained by his posts and have a hard time understanding why some people are getting so fucking nasty. Seriously. This is a fucking game, for crissakes. Chill the fuck out.

You know, I'm not sure at all about his motivations. If he's just having fun, fine, but couldn't he have fun while helping his team to win? To me, it's like - say you get a bunch of people together and go to play pickup basketball, right? No money or league or anything, just people having fun. And you choose up teams. And the game starts. And after a while, you notice that there's a guy, ostensibly on your team, who's not really playing. You pass him the ball, and he lets it go by because he's practicing his funny voices. The man he's guarding drives to the basket, but this guy doesn't try to defend him, because he's imagining himself as Charles Barkley and eating a pork sandwich. Well, great, I'm glad you're having fun, but after a while it seems like: (1) he's definitely not helping your team; and (2) maybe he quietly wants the other team to win. But you don't want to kick him off the team unless you're sure he's against you, because then you'll have fewer players than the other team.

So I think that's why people are getting nasty. I, for one, don't care how the guy posts; he can be Robert DiNiro or James Caan for all I care. I just care what he posts, and so far he hasn't posted anything of substance.

But I can't bring myself to vote for him, because I just don't know yet what he's doing. Clarification would be nice.

Queuing

03-29-2007, 10:28 AM

Queuing, just answer the question. How did you think you'd catch someone in a lie by asking for experience. Did you honestly think that someone like MadTheCow would say "Nope, never played it before!"

I'm still not understanding your fishing venture.

I have answered every question thrown my way. Anytime anybody asks for a more thorough explanation if my thinking I have given it. All you have done is accuse me.

I have given my reasons for it. I said, in the very post you find suspicous, that it might not be a good idea. My wording was, after the request "Or not", meaning maybe it wasn't a good idea. Hell I can give you my reasons over and over again, posting more and more, I don't mind.

Personally I have no idea if MadTheCow has played before. What I do know is that, in the last game, JSexton came right out and said "Hey I have played before, I am good at this game" then took the lead, and led the charge that resulted in a boon for the town of getting the AlphaWolf the first day. Yes most people playing this version have read the previous game. I wouldn't count that as much experience. I never re-read that thread, I didn't really care, I was interested but not involved.

How do I know what people will or will not do? Not everyone is good at deception. We have seen some rather suspect moves in this game (Chrisk's idea), and a completely horrible move by a player last game. Who knows what we will find out by asking for more information, by pressuring people? You seem to think my asking questions is bad, and I don't understand that.

MadTheSwine

03-29-2007, 10:28 AM

ArizonaTeach

03-29-2007, 10:29 AM

Also, for what it's worth, I think I have keys on several pro-townie roles, I won't say which roles and how many to minimize the information I give to the mafia, so if you are one, please be a bit more careful with your posts.Oh. Oh dear. I don't like this post at all, and I was firmly on Blaster Master's side because he and I saw eye to eye on Enfant Terrible. This post seems to me to be designed to scream "I support the townies, everyone!" when there was little reason for him to scream it.

Queuing

03-29-2007, 10:30 AM

Bah, sorry about that.

Hockey Monkey

03-29-2007, 10:33 AM

Holy Crap Batman! Where do I start? SK and VIG kills - I'm sure these guys have their own agendas, but I don't think it's a bad idea to toss out who you think they should kill in your Trust/Distrust list. I don't have time this morning for a long post, but here is what I'm thinking right now:

Trust: Blaster Master, Fern Forest - our thinking seems to be on the same page, but they can put it into words much better than I can. Also leaving Rysto on my trust list for now.

Don't Trust: Autolycus - now he's getting on my nerves. I don't want to waste a lynch vote on him. The Serial Killer can take him out for all I care. Although if he doesn't take a dirt nap tonight, I'll be inclined to think he is the SK, what with being crazy about continuing to annoy us with his no-content posts.

Enfant Terrible - I just think he is lying. It's a gut feeling based on the way his posts read.

Queuing - my drinking posts in the beginning of the game during the night phase were a way to pass the time while waiting for the night votes to get in. We can't strategize at night, so having a little lighthearted fun at the bar seemed OK at the time. I can do my drinking at home from now on. :rolleyes: This thread grows fast, so we have to give people adequate RL time to analyze and respond. There a quite a few players we haven't heard much from yet.

FlyingCowOfDoom - I still have my eye on.

Vote: Enfant Terrible!

I am female.

MonkeyMensch

03-29-2007, 10:42 AM

Good IRL morning all. I left off at #377 and haven't read the new posts yet. Just a couple of thoughts and then I'll post an addendum after I've caught up.

I checked the other game thread and the three experienced players were all in it up to the last day or two. So it was a nice, warm, huggy multiple homicide from the killing parties for the benefit of the new players. For this I say thanks, sort of.

The SK's gotta go. As nice as it would be in a mid to late game situation to have the SK, and by extension, the Vig knocking off mafia at night while we lynch suspects by day, it ain't mid-game yet and the poor vig is forced to kill pretty much blindly at this point. As many as 4 player deaths per Night/Day cycle is just intolerable.

Let me catch up and I'll add.

MadTheSwine

03-29-2007, 10:45 AM

What happens if SK and VIG kill the same person?

CaerieD

03-29-2007, 10:47 AM

Oh. Oh dear. I don't like this post at all, and I was firmly on Blaster Master's side because he and I saw eye to eye on Enfant Terrible. This post seems to me to be designed to scream "I support the townies, everyone!" when there was little reason for him to scream it.

My mistrust of Blaster Master is one of several reasons why I decided against voting for Enfant Terrible. There's just something a little overly gung-ho there, when there's no particular reason to be quite that impassioned. It made me think Mafia trying to turn us against one another and so I couldn't go with his endorsement.

Menocchio

03-29-2007, 10:49 AM

Ok. This is gonna sound weasly. So be it.

I said I was voting for Sturmhauke until someone gave me a better reason. Well, I found a better reason.

Queuing's post #436 (or so, I don't recall the exact number) is a very spirited defense for someone who is still down there in the lynching polls, especially since Autolycus seems intent on sabotaging himself (I don't personally think Autolycus is scum, btw, just not taking teh agme seriously at all). It also wasn't very strong.

Nothing seems more suspicious to me than unnecessary defensiveness.

Unvote Sturmhauke
Vote Queuing

I don't trust: Queuing, Sturmhauke, Madtheswine, Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, and while I don't exactly mistrust Rysto, I think those who go out of their way to be especially helpful ought not to be immune from scrutiny.

zuma

03-29-2007, 10:50 AM

Also a clarification since I was asked. The SK wins if they are alive at the end...and there is only one winner. So if the SK wins. everyone else loses.

So town can't win unless the serial killer is dead? We need to kill the serial killer if we're to win? Mod, if I understand this correctly, in order for town or mafia to win, the serial killer needs to be dead, right?

NAF1138

03-29-2007, 10:51 AM

What happens if SK and VIG kill the same person?

Then only that person dies and one of them wasted a choice. Or made a good choice...guess it all depends on how you look at it. :D

NAF1138

03-29-2007, 10:52 AM

So town can't win unless the serial killer is dead? We need to kill the serial killer if we're to win? Mod, if I understand this correctly, in order for town or mafia to win, the serial killer needs to be dead, right?
This is correct.

And Enfant Terrible is now at 8 votes.

cowgirl

03-29-2007, 10:53 AM

Phew, made it to the end of the thread. It's taken me all morning but here I am!

I don't buy the reasoning for mistrusting sturmhauke. It requires that we correctly guess the mindset of all three killers and I don't think we have enough info to do that yet.

I've also got nothing against Autolycus, given his posts I think he is equally likely to be citizen or scum. I bet he decided to talk like a mafioso before he even got his role.

Likewise with chrisK, he was just trying out a strategy and probably would have done the same thing regardless of his role.

I trust storyteller because I agree with everything s/he said in post #438, and Gadarene because he agreed with critical parts of it too. Pleonast's list seems to match mine so I'll go ahead and trust him too.

Very curious about MadTheSwine's hard-on for Winston. When did it start, before or after roles were distributed?

Enfant Terrible and Queueing do seem to be covering for each other a bit, so I mistrust them - and if one is Mafia, both are. It kind of looks like CaerieD is trying to deflect suspicion from ET so throw her in the pot of mistrust as well.

Lynch Enfant Terrible

NAF1138

03-29-2007, 10:55 AM

Lynch Enfant Terrible

9 votes.

One more to lynch and end the day.

Winston Smith

03-29-2007, 10:57 AM

I'll put my money where my mouth is.

Lynch Enfant Terrible

Queuing

03-29-2007, 11:00 AM

So does that mean the day is now over?

I hope so, maybe I won't get fired if I stop reading this thread :).

NAF1138

03-29-2007, 11:07 AM

And in a mad rush of suspicion and accusation one cry made it through the clammor of the crow "LYNCH ENFANT TERRIBLE" Quiet at first then gaining volume until the frenzy could not be contained. The crowd lurched towards Enfant Terrible and quickly and violently tore him apart, limb from limb, before he even made it to the noose.
Night falls on Doperville, and Enfant Terrible, a Citizen, has been killed.

Get your night votes in. You have 48 hours from now before you reach the deadline. I will end the night early again as soon as all the night voters have their decisions in to me.

ArizonaTeach

03-29-2007, 11:10 AM

At this point, I return to hiding under the covers.

CaerieD

03-29-2007, 11:12 AM

Well that was disappointing. I do feel vindicated in my choice not to vote for Enfant Terrible, though. So sorry you had to go like that.

Rysto

03-29-2007, 11:13 AM

One more to lynch and end the day.
Guys, I really don't think that it's a good idea to end the day prematurely. The longer this day lasts, the more information we can collect. It may be too late for that now, but in future days, let's keep that in mind.

MadTheSwine

03-29-2007, 11:13 AM

Wow! No cooling off period or nothing.I am toast ...see ya later.

glee

03-29-2007, 11:15 AM

Farewell Enfant Terrible.

NAF1138, As I understand it, there's no analysis allowed until night ends?

The Understander

03-29-2007, 11:15 AM

Eight votes now... everything can change in the blink of an eye!

Time for some refutations posthaste.

Wait. Why bother? I'm wondering if a better strategy is to just be lynched. You'll all gain some useful information regarding the motivations of people who began the bandwagon to string me up... and when I am confirmed townie--at my funeral, it appears-- I urge you all to look VERY hard at storyteller0910 and the first few people who FOS me WITHOUT VOTING (Suspicious, given what I've seen of this game--they'd want the townies to off their own first, and they have far more info, relatively speaking, than the rest of us regarding who is who (whom?))

As to the question regarding why I'd want to give away power roles (re: the infamous 'posters who strategize early tend to have power' post), I'd just ask you to consider that:

1. I'm a rank n00b at this game. I don't even see moves that far down the line--not reliably, in any case.

2. Power role, as I was using the term, can mean anything... remember, we have mafia, SK, AND Vigilante to worry about--and scum outnumbers good guys when we speak generically of power roles. So any potential info I gave regarding town, IMO, is overridden by the info I potentially gave regarding the bad guys.
Besides that--I didn't mention any names when I gave that little bit of advice.

I don't plan going out like Obi-Wan though, so for what it's worth, here's my WAG:

Trust: Myself, Kat (she's dead on about me reading the last game), the honored dead

Distrust: Pleonast (first vote change. I always find that funny), Blaster Master (if chrisk is on your trust list for now, disclaimer aside, why discount the hypothetical result he came up with that I am town?), storyteller0910 (I admit he's providing cogent analysis here. But to what end? See above on that.)