Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[MonkeyMensch]

Wow. In the time it took to catch up the day is over! I'll just be shutting up for now...

[Fern Forest]

Ahh, we lynched an infant. How terrible.


It looks like this town has a rather nasty dirty rat problem.

[Malacandra]

Bugger.

[storyteller0910]

Crap on a cracker. An hour for lunch and all this happens. Sorry, ET, if you can still hear me, especially since I was the one who drew attention to you in the first place. We shouldn't be ending days this quickly, that's for sure.

More tomorrow, if I'm still around by then. Crap.

[Blaster Master]

Wow, that day ended faster. Apologies to Enfant Terrible, I suppose on the plus side that will grant us some information, even moreso after the nights killings have gone through.

FWIW, in case it isn't obvious, I am male.

[nesta]

That day ended too quickly. By the time I was done catching up on the morning posts it was too late. I guess I'll save my notes for tomorrow. See you all at the bar.

I'm male BTW.

[Queuing]

We shouldn't be ending days this quickly, that's for sure.


I agree with this. I think a countdown should be instituted, perhaps 12-24 hours?

[glee]

For any further games, could we go back to Revenant's idea of having 'day' first?
Otherwise the first players killed have no chance to say anything.

[Menocchio]

I agree with this. I think a countdown should be instituted, perhaps 12-24 hours?
I concur. Start the count and give the condemned time for one last appeal.

[NAF1138]

I agree with this. I think a countdown should be instituted, perhaps 12-24 hours?


You are probably right. That was fast. Lets make it a 12 clock after the 10th vote so people have a chance to see what is happening and change their minds.

[CaerieD]

You are probably right. That was fast. Lets make it a 12 clock after the 10th vote so people have a chance to see what is happening and change their minds.

Thank you. Had I actually been doing work this morning instead of being on the board, I never would have had a chance to vote at all!

[Blaster Master]

I agree with this. I think a countdown should be instituted, perhaps 12-24 hours?
On one hand, I do like the countdown idea... I went to lunch with 7 votes, and came back with 10 and a lynching before I could glean more information. On the other hand, as fast as this thread is moving in 24 hours, without a break, I'm unsure how fair it is to people who come in after a 12 hour hiatus (God forbid somone sleep or not want to lurk on their company's money :)) and see 150 new posts. So, even though it cost us information today, it will give those of us who haven't been refreshing every 10 minutes to read and re-read to try to pick up on things.

Now, being that I have a bad feeling I'm gonna get killed tonight, I figure I'll stay in public and have a few drinks with the rest of you at the bar. Bartender, give some tequila, and keep it coming!

[Winston Smith]

Shit...what the hell...lets drink Winston

No hard feelings, then? :dubious:

This round is on you.

[Blaster Master]

For any further games, could we go back to Revenant's idea of having 'day' first?
Otherwise the first players killed have no chance to say anything.
I do prefer the other way as well; however, this game is traditionally started with night. Of course, there's also normally only one kill at night, so it's only one person who is out, but we do gain information from the first night (cops, and who the mafia/sk/vig kill) which makes the original accusations a little less random. Of course, the other reason for it being started with night is that in the "in person" version, you have the mafia open their eyes so they can tell who eachother is, and same for the masons, otherwise, on the first day, even the masons don't know who eachother are to protect themselves; obviously, that's not an issue with the SD version.

[Hockey Monkey]

I'll be in my usual corner booth facing the door. I'll be having Pepsi tonight barkeep, my head still hurts from last night. On second thought, what the hell, throw a couple drops of Amaretto in there too! :D

[Queuing]

On one hand, I do like the countdown idea... I went to lunch with 7 votes, and came back with 10 and a lynching before I could glean more information. On the other hand, as fast as this thread is moving in 24 hours, without a break, I'm unsure how fair it is to people who come in after a 12 hour hiatus (God forbid somone sleep or not want to lurk on their company's money :)) and see 150 new posts. So, even though it cost us information today, it will give those of us who haven't been refreshing every 10 minutes to read and re-read to try to pick up on things.

Now, being that I have a bad feeling I'm gonna get killed tonight, I figure I'll stay in public and have a few drinks with the rest of you at the bar. Bartender, give some tequila, and keep it coming!

Is the problem with the time period of the countdown and not the countdown itself? Thats what I am getting from this at least. My 12-24 hours was just a suggestion, ultimately it is NAF1138 decision. I would be fine with a 24 hour countdown as well. Of course this could mean once you hit say 5 votes you better start explaining yourself.

[NAF1138]

I do prefer the other way as well; however, this game is traditionally started with night. Of course, there's also normally only one kill at night, so it's only one person who is out, but we do gain information from the first night (cops, and who the mafia/sk/vig kill) which makes the original accusations a little less random. Of course, the other reason for it being started with night is that in the "in person" version, you have the mafia open their eyes so they can tell who eachother is, and same for the masons, otherwise, on the first day, even the masons don't know who eachother are to protect themselves; obviously, that's not an issue with the SD version.


There is good and bad to both ways of playing. If I run one of these again I will probably keep it to 15-20 players and have a day start, but I think the night start was the way to go on a game with this many players.

[NAF1138]

Is the problem with the time period of the countdown and not the countdown itself? Thats what I am getting from this at least. My 12-24 hours was just a suggestion, ultimately it is NAF1138 decision. I would be fine with a 24 hour countdown as well. Of course this could mean once you hit say 5 votes you better start explaining yourself.

I think 24 hours is too long. 12 should give you guys enough time so everyone can focus on just the person who is on the block without the game losing steam.

[Blaster Master]

Is the problem with the time period of the countdown and not the countdown itself? Thats what I am getting from this at least. My 12-24 hours was just a suggestion, ultimately it is NAF1138 decision. I would be fine with a 24 hour countdown as well. Of course this could mean once you hit say 5 votes you better start explaining yourself.

Yes. That was my main point. I think 12 hours is a good balance; if it were 24, I just can't imagine anything in the second 12 hours that would exonerate the convicted that wouldn't have come up in the first 12.

I was also simply pointing out that this time, even without the count down, it will let the thread rest for a while for those who have fallen behind, so even though it still hurts over all, it may help those who felt completely overwhelmed and, thus, may end up being a blessing in disguise. That is, I think its better to have 24 hours worth of posts well analyzed by everyone than 36 hours of posts, only half-analyzed; in my view, that seems to net a higher information gain.

[Blaster Master]

There is good and bad to both ways of playing. If I run one of these again I will probably keep it to 15-20 players and have a day start, but I think the night start was the way to go on a game with this many players.
Agreed, we had this many posts with 35 people, and the three people killed weren't exactly lurkers in the other thread, so I can imagine if they were all here we'd have had 10-15% more posts minimum. As far as making the game manageable on your part with this many players, that only makes sense.

[ArizonaTeach]

Shit...what the hell...lets drink WinstonDrink Winston? Are there vampires in this game?!?

[Menocchio]

I'd just like to point out that surviving day 1 is a personal record for me.

[Blaster Master]

I'd just like to point out that surviving day 1 is a personal record for me.
Not only that, you've doubled your old PB: the first night AND the first day. Grats! A round of shots for Menocchio!

[MadTheSwine]

I'd just like to point out that surviving day 1 is a personal record for me.

WTG Menocchio!!!

[MadTheSwine]

I'd just like to point out that surviving day 1 is a personal record for me.

WTG Menocchio!!! Give Rysto a hug.

[Hockey Monkey]

I'd just like to point out that surviving day 1 is a personal record for me.

Woot! WTG Menocchio! Bartender, get this man a drink on me!

[kivvik]

And the day ends before I can even finish reading what accumulated in my sleep! I missed my first vote too...
But I guess it was a good thing; Enfant Terrible was the only person I had active enough reason to distrust and look at what I would have helped with o.o
So I'll raise one up to you tonight as we wait for the safety of dawn. (What a terrible night to have a curse...)

[Lakai]

Finally, I finished reading.

And there is not much to do but drink. Oh well.

Johnnie Walker Black please.

What hell, make it a Johnnie Blue. This might be my last night alive.

[Hockey Monkey]

Hmmmmmmmmm...awfully quiet in here.

:::looks around at everyone from her perch in the corner booth:::

Can I have another Amaretto and Pepsi please?

[Gadarene]

I'd like some milk and sarsaparilla. Got to keep on my toes, y'know.

The ex-wife, you see. Mean ol' thing.

[StarvingButStrong]

[out of character] I *don't* have internet access at work. :( Figure in commuting time, and cooking/eating dinner, and pretty much I'll be away from the game for 10 hours at a stretch each week day. So if I seem to go quiet for stretches -- even during ramp ups to lynchings -- it's not a deliberate lurking startegy, okay?

[/ooc]

Hmmm. Kind of quiet in the bar tonight. Anybody got a deck of cards?

[Gadarene]

I always have a deck of cards. (Really.)

Hearts, spades, poker, palace? Something else? Pick your poison.

[Pleonast]

Are you sure this bar is safe? There's some blotchy marks on the floor, and a couple of guys in the back are eyeing me weird.

[Gadarene]

Well, you've got a cute weird. But you shouldn't talk like a pirate. Not today.

[hocow]

....

I finally have notes for a coherent post and by the time I am through reading everything, it's night.

Dammit.

[StarvingButStrong]

I always have a deck of cards. (Really.)

Hearts, spades, poker, palace? Something else? Pick your poison.

I'm easy.

But I suggest a house rule: All markers must be settled by dawn. :cool:

[JSexton]

There is good and bad to both ways of playing. If I run one of these again I will probably keep it to 15-20 players and have a day start, but I think the night start was the way to go on a game with this many players.
Spectator chiming in: One popular compromise is to have a cop headstart. That is, start in night, but only allow non-lethal actions to be submitted. You get the best of both worlds: information is gathered, but everyone gets to play for at least one game day. You can have a couple dead bodies of NPCs in the morning scene for flavor, if you want.

[Hockey Monkey]

I'm easy.

But I suggest a house rule: All markers must be settled by dawn. :cool:


Crap! I never carry cash...will you take a check? :D

[Kat]

I want to chime in for the 12 hour countdown, too. I also dono't have Internet access at work* so missed my vote, since I wasn't ready to vote last night, and didn't have time to read all the posts this morning before I left.

*Technically, I do have Internet access, but I'm not supposed to use it for "excessive non-business-related use" plus I'm in training for my new position right now, and thus don't have time for getting online.

[Rysto]

I didn't want to start a new Sequential Threads thread for this, but this amused me:

Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)
How quickly everything changes.

[chrisk]

I was caught off guard by the lynching, partly because of work and other things I was doing last night, and partly because I was taking a bit of a breather because I got REALLY overenthusiastic and game-hyper yesterday.

But I'm not joining those calling for a countdown - yet. It's going to be a long enough game anyway, and a bit of sudden death makes things interesting.

[NAF1138]

I was caught off guard by the lynching, partly because of work and other things I was doing last night, and partly because I was taking a bit of a breather because I got REALLY overenthusiastic and game-hyper yesterday.

But I'm not joining those calling for a countdown - yet. It's going to be a long enough game anyway, and a bit of sudden death makes things interesting.


I will think about it "tonight" and post a final decision about the countdown with the morning post.

I think a bit of a cooldown period may be necessary for those who only have access to the thread for a small portion of the day. But it may be something that I won't keep in there permanently. I might take it out when the game switches to majority vote to lynch.

I will let you know. Until then, opinions are welcome if anyone feels strongly one way or the other.

[Rysto]

I would like the countdown. It gives the condemned a chance to talk their way out(what if Enfant Terrible was a Mason? We wouldn't have had the chance to change our minds). I'm definitely in favour of anything that can reign in overzealous lynch mobs.

[Hockey Monkey]

I'd like to say that I think a countdown is a good idea. Twelve hours should suffice. It is taking a while to read and analyze all these posts, and I can't be in the thread all the time.

[hocow]

Another vote for the 12 hour countdown. In the last game, OAOW was able to talk himself out of a lynching, and rightfully so, in the last game.

[MonkeyMensch]

And another vote for 12 hour countdowns. As I found out this morning being out west of everybody except Fern Forest can leave you a little bit out of the flow.

[Gadarene]

I agree about the 12 hour countdowns.

[Fretful Porpentine]

The countdown sounds like a good idea to me, too.

[Queuing]

Another vote for the 12 hour countdown. In the last game, OAOW was able to talk himself out of a lynching, and rightfully so, in the last game.

I believe Sturmhauke saved someone as well, which revealed his seerness, and pretty much clinched the game for the town. So a 12 hour countdown, at least at the beginning when it seems a page an hour is being created is necessary IMO.

[storyteller0910]

12-hour countdown sounds good to me.

[Blaster Master]

Vote Tally:

12-hour count down: storyteller0910, Queuing, Fretful Porpentine, Gadarene, Monkey Mensch, hocow, pimaspinner, Rysto, Kat...

I'll cast the lynching 10th vote for 12-hour count down

[Suburban Plankton]

I vote for a 12 hour countdown as well. When I left for work this morning, I had read up to post 382. I had a bit of a hectic day and didn't get to check the thread at all. I just now got finished reading it, 168 posts later! I had a few thoughts that I spent part of the day putting together, intending to post them as soon as I got home. Imagine my surprise when I found out I was about 8 hours too late.

Ah well, at least Enfant Terrible's death was not totally in vain. to see MadTheSwine and Winston Smith together like this, it almost makes the heart leap for joy!

[Blaster Master]

Hearts, spades, poker, palace? Something else? Pick your poison.
Hey, them sounds like killer words! ;)
I didn't want to start a new Sequential Threads thread for this, but this amused me:

Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)
How quickly everything changes.
You mean there's not a sequential thread going on? I thought there almost always was. Hell, I think that'd be worth it, assuming enough of the dope is following to get it.

[glee]

I'm a teacher and my term finished last week, so I'm on holiday. :)
Even so, I missed the lynching! :eek:
I don't know how regular posters could keep up.

Also it was very disappointing to see Enfant Terrible offer justification for not being lynched a couple of posts after the deed had been done. :(

Vote for 12 hour countdown after enough lynching votes received.

P.S. Presumably in the later stages with less surviving players, the required number for lynching goes down?

[glee]

You mean there's not a sequential thread going on? I thought there almost always was. Hell, I think that'd be worth it, assuming enough of the dope is following to get it.

I'm sure there is an accompanying thread strictly for spectators and deceased players.
I think Winston Smith confessed to accidently posting in it ( :eek: ).

[Fern Forest]

And another vote for 12 hour countdowns. As I found out this morning being out west of everybody except Fern Forest can leave you a little bit out of the flow.
I think I might have to start getting up early. There were more posts while I slept then while I was at work and the gym.

P.S. I'm using a trick I learned from Calvin & Hobbes. I've taken a Halloween mask and am wearing it on the back of my head. That way nobody can tell if I can see them or not. It's genius.

[kivvik]

Another vote for the 12-hour Window of Life(tm). Give the doomed the time to speak out, role-claim, or at least work up a good set of last words for us! Maybe a death-poem or something? Whatever boats their float.

[Autolycus]

/in real life, once only explanaiton for the doomed*

I am playing a characer in this game. React as you see fit. As per my silence today, I had a 12 hour work day ^^;;;;

***** /role-play on

I suspects everyone who's too nice or too quiet. My gut is leaning towards Blaster Master latllies, but I gots no solid evidence. I heard about some randoms killler lasts night, and that worrys me the most. Actually that's not true, I got into a fist fight with my local frat today, and that scares me the most >_<;;;

[Malacandra]

I'll take a whisky sour while we're waiting to find out who's been murdered. :(

[glee]

/in real life, once only explanaiton for the doomed*

I am playing a characer in this game. React as you see fit. As per my silence today, I had a 12 hour work day ^^;;;;

***** /role-play on

I suspects everyone who's too nice or too quiet. My gut is leaning towards Blaster Master latllies, but I gots no solid evidence. I heard about some randoms killler lasts night, and that worrys me the most. Actually that's not true, I got into a fist fight with my local frat today, and that scares me the most >_<;;;

Sheesh. :rolleyes:
Your first piece of analysis and you post it in a time when you are forbidden to do so. :smack:
Why don't you read the rules?

[chrisk]

I'm sure there is an accompanying thread strictly for spectators and deceased players.
I think Winston Smith confessed to accidently posting in it ( :eek: ).

No, not that kind of thread.

A MPSIMS thread exclusively for posting humorous combinations of thread titles that accidentally ended up next to each other. Usually titled lately with a takeoff on some general type of thread that's been popping up lately, like 'why haven't sequential threads been banned yet'?

[Winston Smith]

I'm sure there is an accompanying thread strictly for spectators and deceased players.
I think Winston Smith confessed to accidently posting in it ( :eek: ).

That's not what they were talking about, but yes - I did post once in the forbidden thread. I was the first respondent, and it was before our game started. I posted my "confession" here because it was a dumb - but ultimately harmless - thing to do (provided it was out there in the open).

[Queuing]

P.S. Presumably in the later stages with less surviving players, the required number for lynching goes down?

Yes, once we get under 20 players a simple majority is needed for the lynch to happen.

[MonkeyMensch]

Hey! An after hours club!

And I even beat the newspaper boy.

Mimosa, please.

[Gadarene]

What did the newspaper boy ever do to you?

[Malacandra]

What's the newspaper boy's name?
--Russell. :D

[MonkeyMensch]

I beat him daily. He's red-headed.

[Blaster Master]

What did the newspaper boy ever do to you?
Well, come the morn' he's gonna have bad news for us all.

Speakin' of which, any word on how much longer? I'ma guessin' not too many night votes 're still outstandin'.

[NAF1138]

Well, come the morn' he's gonna have bad news for us all.

Speakin' of which, any word on how much longer? I'ma guessin' not too many night votes 're still outstandin'.

I promise I will post as soon as I get all the night votes in, I still have several that are outstanding. Considering how much happened in the first day I am not really surprised, there is a lot of info to look over. Give the night voters a bit of time.

[Blaster Master]

I promise I will post as soon as I get all the night votes in, I still have several that are outstanding. Considering how much happened in the first day I am not really surprised, there is a lot of info to look over. Give the night voters a bit of time.
I appreciate the amount of information to go over and that some or all of them are probably busier at work today than I am. I'm just anxious to get back to the game.

[NAF1138]

I appreciate the amount of information to go over and that some or all of them are probably busier at work today than I am. I'm just anxious to get back to the game.
I understand.

I suppose I should also post that there are only 23 hours left until the deadline. So get your night votes in people. Don't rush, but know that the clock it is a'ticking.

[Autolycus]

It's too's quiet if ya asks me. Giving me's the willies, that's what it's doin' Ya know, this town's rotten, and it 'aint the veggietables.

[Aguecheek]

Just checking in over lunch. I'll stand at the bar and raise a glass to Enfant Terrible.

[Santo Rugger]

Ugh, I'm never drinking again! Auto, maybe you're right, those BLs really kick my ass. I don't know if it's the booze or the sugar, but I missed a whole day of work because of it. I think I'll refrain from drinking for awhile, missing an entire day doesn't sit well at work.

[NAF1138]

Another night has passed in the seaside town of Doperville. And after the vicious lynch mobbing of Enfant Terrible the previous day, many felt the need for a drink. The bar was quiet this evening, this time there were no festivities.

Cowgirl didn't show up at the bar that night. She was so distraught by her role in the death of an innocent that she decided instead to go for a midnight stroll down by the water and rethink her position. She was found dead a few moments after daybreak.

A few minutes before dawn CaerieD is seen stumbling drunkenly into the streets. Everyone knew it was a bad idea to take shortcuts down dark alley's these days, but when she left the bar most were too worried about their own safety to stop her. Others didn't even notice. It wasn't until her body was found that anyone knew that she was in fact a Detective working deep cover trying to root out the evil crime syndicate that had been plaguing thier city.

It is Morning in Doperville.

Cowgirl - Citizen
and
CaerieD - Detective

are both dead.


Here is the current player list.

Aguecheek
ArizonaTeach
Autolycus
Blaster Master
brewha
CaerieD (Detective) - Dead
Captain Carrot- Dead
chrisk
cowgirl - Dead
Dnooman-Dead
Enfant Terrible
Fern Forest
Flying Cow of Doom
Fretful Porpentine
Gadarene
glee
hocow
Kat
Kivvik
Lakai
MadTheSwine
Malacandra
Menocchio
MonkeyMensch
nesta
One and Only Wanderers- Dead
pimaspinner
Pleonast
Pygmy Rugger
Queuing
Rysto
Smitty
StarvingButStrong
Storyteller0910
Sturmhauke
Suburban Plankton
Winston Smith
Zuma

From this point on there will be a 12 hour cooling off period that starts after the final lynching vote is in place. This period will end early ONLY if a unanimous decision has been reached. The clock starts counting down from the time the final vote is put in place, not from the time I see it and announce it.

Wednesday at 4:00pm PST is when this day will end.

Good luck!

[Rysto]

Oh, bloody hell. This game keeps getting better and better. We're down 4 Citizens, the Detective and a Mason in 2 days.

[CaerieD]

Ha! I totally saw that one coming, too. Good luck, folks. You're going to need it.

[MonkeyMensch]

Crikey!

I just wanted to get his post off of Wordpad and then come back with... I dunno.

Ok. Here are the addenda that didn't make it up here before the lynching and nightfall. It's looks like both of my previous "Good Morning" points were well covered while I was away reading.

I think the Doctor should be self-protecting every night, for the time being. Using your power on anyone else is just a guess at this point and your protection could be vital in mid to late game when some identities are known. The only way you're bumped off in the meantime is if you're targeted the same night that a Miller mistakenly blocks your gift. That's a pretty unlikely in my estimation, so for the time being Doctor, I'd say heal thyself.

[Rysto]

I think the Doctor should be self-protecting every night, for the time being. Using your power on anyone else is just a guess at this point and your protection could be vital in mid to late game when some identities are known. The only way you're bumped off in the meantime is if you're targeted the same night that a Miller mistakenly blocks your gift. That's a pretty unlikely in my estimation, so for the time being Doctor, I'd say heal thyself.
I disagree strongly. The threat of the Doctor is the only thing that will stop the Mafia from killing off the most useful members of the Town. Look at the last game -- the only reason that JSexton survived the first night was because the Werewolves were afraid that the Guardian Angel would protect him.

[Malacandra]

I disagree strongly. The threat of the Doctor is the only thing that will stop the Mafia from killing off the most useful members of the Town. Look at the last game -- the only reason that JSexton survived the first night was because the Werewolves were afraid that the Guardian Angel would protect him.

Quite, but until either the scum or the Doctor have a clue as to the identity of anyone useful, he'd just be whistling in the dark trying to protect "anyone useful" - hell, who's left to protect now? A couple of Masons and a couple of beat cops? We just lost our most reliable spotter, and I've not been to look and see what breadcrumbs she left if any. This is not going well.

[Queuing]

Well that sucked again. Only 2 kills though. Who do you think didn't kill?

CaerieD said this:


My mistrust of Blaster Master is one of several reasons why I decided against voting for Enfant Terrible. There's just something a little overly gung-ho there, when there's no particular reason to be quite that impassioned. It made me think Mafia trying to turn us against one another and so I couldn't go with his endorsement.


in post 478

and this

Trust: Menocchio.

Distrust: Enfant Terrible. There are just lots of different things that are adding up to make me suspicious. I'm somewhat suspicious of Autolycus, too, but I can't tell if he's scum and baiting or just really sadistic.


in post 326.

She voted for Sturmhauke.

In post 388 Blaster Master said this:

fter some more re-reads, here's another update of who is suspicious to me

Trust: Rysto, Lakai, Storyteller0910, chrisk (but only for today, if he stops posting his investigations, he goes right to my mistrust list)
Mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Queuing, CaerieD, Autolycus, MonkeyMensch

Thus, I would say we should lynch Enfant, the VIG should kill Queuing, and the SK should kill CaerieD.

I have a gut on a couple of the other roles too, but it's obviously not to our benefit to air those suspicions.

For my first quick ctrl-f using the name of CaerieD thats what I found out.

Either one of these 2 people is fine by me. We lynch either Sturmhauke or Blaster Master.

Since I don't know how much I will be able to post this weekend (and the growth of this thread), I vote to [COLOR=Blue]lynch Blaster Master[COLOR=Blue].

This is because of his SK comment.

[Queuing]

Crap, stupid colour coding.

Lynch Blaster Master

[Smitty]

I have updated my spreadsheet (http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pCnefFt-OVNHdERwU5Vq7SA) with a change to the history section. Each vote now contains the post number where the vote was made so that you can easily find it. I think we need to take a good, hard look at who made bandwagon votes on Enfant Terrible - that is, votes with no reasoning behind them. These are far more likely to be scum pushing for a lynch.

[Rysto]

Well that sucked again. Only 2 kills though. Who do you think didn't kill?
Well, only the Mafia and the Serial Killer can choose not to kill someone. It makes no sense for the Mafia not to kill anyone. The way I see it, either the Serial Killer didn't want to make things worse for the Town by killing a random person, but that doesn't make a lot of sense either.

I think it's most likely that the Doctor saved someone's life. This is why I'm very against them protecting themselves.

[Rysto]

Actually, another possibility is that a Miller targeted the SK, the Vig or a Mafioso.

[ArizonaTeach]

Well, BlasterMaster was on my list since his "I have ideas about who is what" post, and I wish I had listened to CaerieD more then. (Pounds my heart twice, kisses two fingers and raises them towards the sky.) If she was killed by the mafia I suspect it's for that exact reason. I can't imagine why the mafia would want to kill cowgirl, though, but I haven't gone back to look at her posts. (Umm...some equally ridiculous show of support for another fallen friend)

However, a lot of people had you on their list, Queuing, so before I stand with you, I'm going to go back and look at what they say.

[MonkeyMensch]

I haven't read back over the thread yet. After all what's Friday night for if you're not dating?

But CaerieD had a chance to investigate and live just one night. And she names only Menocchio as being trusted. I think that's a bread crumb if I've ever seen one.

[Menocchio]

Well, crud.

Of course, I would support the theory that Caerie cleared me on her one night of investigation. Besides being the truth, it seems likely that she would hit a townie swinging blind on night 1. I'd say that's more important than her suspicions.

As for me, I'm sticking with voting for Queuing unless something else shakes out.

[Rysto]

Guys, CaerieD's death was no accident. MonkeyMensch just put me on to this.

At some point in the first game's commentary thread, a Werewolf said something to the effect of, "If we had just been able to kill a power role early, the game would have been very different." I think that the Mafia took this to heart. chrisk started it here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405698&postcount=273).

Okay, based on an idea that StarvingButStrong had in the werewolf commentary thread, I'm proposing an Open Detection System

Hypothetically, for the purpose of this post, I'm claiming that I'm a cop of some sort. Last night, I investigated Enfant Terrible and found him to be vanilla citizen.

The preceding assertion is not valid in any way, shape, or form, unless I'm a cop of some description. In addition, if I'm a beat cop, my investigations are unreliable, and all investigations are subject to specific distortion. (IE, even if I'm the detective and got that result from ET, he might still be the godfather.)

All other players are encouraged to join in with the ODS and post hypothetical investigation results. I'm not sure how this will end up, but I thought it was worth a try to start. If you don't want me to continue doing this on successive days, yell at me to stop.
I was against the idea from the start, because I was afraid it would reveal Cops instead of helping the town. Here's what I said:

'm not entirely sure about this system. The trouble is, non-Cops are very quickly going to out themselves to the Mafia by making incorrect role claims. Even worse, unless every single person participates, the ODS will give the Mafia a smaller pool of players in which to look for the Cops.

Now, take a look at what chrisk said (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8357867&postcount=257) when StarvingButStrong initially proposed the idea:

I wondered about a scheme like this myself.

The net effect would be that as reliable information comes in, the 'accurate Seer list' would shrink, however to groups with special information, such as masons and werewolves, it would be shrinking faster, as anyone who claims to have investigated one of their number and publishes an inaccurate result would probably eliminate themselves.

Might mean that the werewolves, then, can ID the real seer early, and kill him/her off before the GA knows that they're the real deal.

And then, there'd be the headache of wondering if the true seer might have published an investigation falsely in order to not draw attention to themselves too soon.
He knew. He knew that this would reveal the Seer to the Werewolves, and then he goes and proposes it in this thread. I very nearly called him on it on the spot, but decided to hold off and watch him instead. That was a gigantic mistake, because next Pleonast comes up with this idea (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405868&postcount=291):

Since Beat Cops don't get reliable information, an incorrect claim doesn't necessary reveal the false claimer as an ordinary Citizen. Also, the Detective (or anyone else) could intentionally give false info, to mislead the Mafia. But I don't like the idea anyway: the Mafia are better placed to make use of the information by combining it with what they already know.

Instead, I think it would be better for players to give lists of players they trust and mistrust. Something like this:

I trust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, cowgirl, Flying Cow of Doom, Menocchio
I mistrust: Blaster Master, Kivvik, MonkeyMensch, Zuma

If I turn up in the river with extra-heavy boots, you can easily look at my lists (I'll publish every day) and make your own inferences. The key is that I don't reveal role information, which would help the Mafia target, but still give enough for the survivors to make better-informed lynchings.

This will work best if every Citizen posts their lists.(bolding mine)
Damn me for a fool; I didn't say anything against this. I should have. I was uncomfortable about it; I didn't see how it was much different from StarvingButStrong's original ODS. And, being the idiot that I was, I didn't realize that this was part of a concerted effort on the part of the Mafia to force the Cops to reveal themselves.

Gadarene (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405945&postcount=302), Blaster Master (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405977&postcount=305) and MadTheSwine (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406223&postcount=320) were the first to endorse the idea.

Then, the Mafia hit pay dirt. CaerieD, the late Detective, posted that she trusted Menocchio, and no one else. It seemingly came out of nowhere. MadTheSwine (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406317&postcount=330) was all over it, and demanded to know why she trusted him. She gave a lame justification about "agreeing with his thinking to this point"(Menocchio's only post of any substance at that point was to agree with Queuing's vote on sturmhauke). To the Mafia, this must have screamed "I am a Cop".

Similarly, we have this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408741&postcount=463) from Blaster Master. Winston Smith said that he trusts storyteller0910, and distrusts Blaster Master. Blaster Master demands to know his reasoning -- fishing for more Cops, do you think?

Now, to be fair, MadTheSwine was the first to question chrisk's original suggestion. I don't know why. Perhaps they were trying the old "suggest something completely unreasonable, and when it's rejected, give a counter-offer that's also unreasonable but seems reasonable in comparison with the original offer". Perhaps he's an innocent victim. At one point, Blaster Master demands that MadTheSwine explain the reasoning for his trust/mistrust list. But maybe the Mafia were trying to establish the thought that all trust/mistrust lists must be justified. I don't know. All I know is that this system directly led to the death of our Detective.

I want to vote for chrisk

[storyteller0910]

Logging on briefly from the bowels of New Jersey to say:

<Sam Beckett>

Oh, boy.

</Sam Beckett>

I'm visiting my in-laws from tonight until very late tomorrow night, so I won't be chiming in with any sort of in-depth analysis until then, but I did want to chime in and say that I think it would be very, very wise to avoid creating any kind of bandwagon here today. We have to find Mafia today, and the best way to do that is to make sure that we're thorough in our discussions.

I'm also very much against lynching sturmhauke. I'm just not seeing it. CaerieD did vote for him, but the vague impression I got was not that she was pushing on him in particular (as she would have been if she was trying to leave breadcrumbs). Other than that, the only reason for suspecting sturmhauke is that he played before and he's alive now. I continue to think that somewhere among those agitating for sturmhauke's lynching we will find scum.

Of course, I also was suspicious of Enfant Terrible, so my gut is maybe not as reliable as I might have hoped coming in.

[Rysto]

Oh yeah, and chrisk was the only person to come out against the cool-off period after 10 votes is reached. Why is that? Seems very suspicious to me.

[Suburban Plankton]

Crap.

Crap, crap, CRAP!


CaerieD, cowgirl, we shall avenge you!
(or we'll all wind up wearing cement galoshes, and I'm not betting a lot on our chances right at the moment)

I've just now gotten a chance to look through the last 10 hours or so of posts, so I don't have much to say at this point. I'm going to spend the next few hours trying to find something in yesterday's posts that might help stop the bleeding before it's too late.


Actually, another possibility is that a Miller targeted the SK, the Vig or a Mafioso.
One other possibility is that two of the three "killer factions" targeted the same person. I'm not sure if it makes any difference or not at this point.

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

Dammit! We're kinda getting our asses kicked, aren't we?

As I had suspected, chrisk is still alive. After reading Rysto's post (#589) it's pretty clear to me what's going on. CaerieD made a very fatal mistake by claiming to trust only Menocchio. I'm not sure who his cohorts are at this point, but I'm convinced that chrisk is scum. Let's string him up!

Vote chrisk.

I trust: Menocchio, Rysto, glee
I don't trust: Blaster Master, Queuing, Aguecheek

--FCOD

[Rysto]

FlyingCow, I really don't think that these trust lists are a good idea. It gives away too much information about who could be a Cop.

[Kat]

Rysto's got a point, there. In the original Werewolf thread, someone (damn, do I want to go look and see?) said that a shortened day is more beneficial to the wolves than the town.

My only reservation is that MadTheSwine voted for chrisk. Of course, it could have been just to throw off suspicion if one or the other was targeted.

Since I didn't get to vote last time due to the timing, I'm going to paranoid-ly (is that a word) get an early vote in and vote for chrisk.

You know, I would get this search done faster if I wasn't trying to cook dinner and post and search all at the same time...

Ha! Found it! It was...hmm...it was MadTheSwine. Does that mean it's not true then? It still makes sense that it does benefit the wolves/Mafia, looking at what happened to Enfant Terrible.

[Kat]

That was in response to post 591, which was the last post when I started typing mine. It took me a while to find the post about short days being bad in the original thread.

[chrisk]

Okay, Rysto, I'm not sure if I can disagree with the substance of your contention that my foolbrained scheme proposal led to losing our Detective, but that was not my intention.

I can only say in my defense that I was punch-drunk on the excitement of Day 1 and wanting to start off some interesting chatter that didn't directly involve finger-pointing.

And yes, I posted that critique of the scheme that you quoted, but that was just wondering about the downsides. That doesn't mean that I was intentionally suggesting something that I knew would be to the detriment of the town... just that I'd thought about the possible consequences. (I probably wasn't keeping them as strongly in mind as I should have...)

When it came to the cooling down period... I guess it came down as 'bitten then shy'. I felt bad over having blurted out a foolish scheme so quickly, so I was hesitating before chiming in on suggesting a rule change. Trying to show some caution. Oh well.

I have some catchup to do before I post a vote or anything. Are we still doing trust and distrust lists, or is that out the window now too? I may do one of my own anyway. :D

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

FlyingCow, I really don't think that these trust lists are a good idea. It gives away too much information about who could be a Cop.I agree with you that the lists can give away too much information, but only if someone repeats CaerieD's mistake of putting just one name on the list. I don't actually trust anyone at this point, I just have less suspicion of some people...especially Menocchio. I think we can be pretty sure he's not in the Mafia at this point.

--FCOD

[Queuing]

Well I am at my GF's house, and she is cooking me dinner (what a great girl!) leaving me time to read what has been posted since I last posted.

It is very true that I have been on a lot of mistrust lists, in fact here is the list of them all (from day 1):

Chrisk:

T: enfant terrible
DT:

Pleonast

I trust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, cowgirl, Flying Cow of Doom, Menocchio
I mistrust: Blaster Master, Kivvik, MonkeyMensch, Zuma

Pleonast
trust: storyteller0910, Blaster Master, Chrisk, Gadarene.
I mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Queuing.

Pleonast
I trust: Blaster Master, Chrisk, Gadarene, Rysto, storyteller0910.
I mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Menocchio, Queuing.

Pleonast
I trust: Blaster Master, Chrisk, Gadarene, Rysto, storyteller0910.
I mistrust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, Menocchio, Queuing.


Blaster Master

Trust: MadTheSwine, Rysto, chrisk (until he points out someone other than a vanilla townie, then we'll see), Lakai
Mistrust: Autolycus, Queuing, CaerieD, MonkeyMensch


Blaster Master

Trust: Rysto, Lakai, Storyteller0910, chrisk (but only for today, if he stops posting his investigations, he goes right to my mistrust list)
Mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Queuing, CaerieD, Autolycus, MonkeyMensch


MadTheSwine

Trust: Rysto
Mistrust: sturmhauke(Strange he wasn't killed,I would have voted to kill him if i were Mafia) Winston Smith(I think the Mafia left me alone for Winstons benefit,had I been killed,Winston dies) chrisk(Wants information) Sub Plank (strange post)

CaerieD
Trust: Menocchio.
Distrust: Enfant Terrible. There are just lots of different things that are adding up to make me suspicious. I'm somewhat suspicious of Autolycus, too, but I can't tell if he's scum and baiting or just really sadistic.

Queuing
Trust: Pleonast, Chrisk
Don't Trust: Sturmhauke, Gaderene, pimaspinner

Gadarene
Trust: Pleonast, MonkeyMensch, Rysto, Blaster Master, storyteller0910
Mistrust: chrisk, sturmhauke, Autolycus, Enfant Terrible

Lakai
Trust - Blaster Master, Menocchio, Rysto, Storyteller0910
Distrust - Enfant Terrible, Queuing, chrisk and MadTheSwine.

pimaspinner
Trust: Blaster Master, Fern Forest, Rysto
Don't Trust: Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, FlyingCowOfDoom

pimaspinner
Trust: Blaster Master, Fern Forest
Don't Trust: Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, Queuing, FlyingCowOfDoom

zuma
Trust: Master Blaster, Rysto, Lakai
Distrust: Queuing, Enfant Terrible, Autoclyse

glee
trust : Blaster Master, Fern Forest, Flying Cow of Doom, Fretful Porpentine, MadTheSwine, MonkeyMensch, Pleonast, Rysto and Storyteller0910
I don't trust: Autolycus, Smitty and Winston Smith

Smitty
DT: Enfant Terrible, Autolycus, glee

Fretful Porpentine
Trust: myself, Rysto (with reservations), glee (with reservations)
Distrust: Enfant Terrible, Menoccio, Queuing, Aguecheek, Fern Forest

FlyingCowOfDoom

I trust: Rysto, glee, myself
I distrust: Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, Queuing, and Aguecheek

storyteller0910

I trust:
sturmhauke: The big push to lynch him based on fairly vague reasoning makes me think that he is definitely town, and that somewhere among those who have voted for him there might be a Mafioso trying to get us to eliminate one of our stronger assets without wasting a night kill.

Rysto: For the spreadsheet, and also for the way he has approached the game so far from an analysis standpoint.

chrisk: I don't see his change in strategies to be a bad thing; I read it as someone who presented what he thought would be a pro-town idea, and then when given arguments against it dropped it. Sticking too closely to a strategy that the town as a whole thinks won't work seems like a bad play.

I don't trust:

Aguecheek, Fern Forest, Menocchio, Queuing: Because they are the voters for sturmhauke. I definitely don't think all of them are Mafia, but I think one of them might be.

Autolycus is hard to figure. The thing is, he's essentially doing exactly what I've accused Enfant Terrible of doing: he's refusing to engage in the game, making a bunch of content-free posts to satisfy the requirement that he participate but never contributing anything that might help his ostensible team win the game. This is exactly how I'd expect Mafia to behave. Gadarene is saying that we'll be able to tell if he's running a double bluff, but I can't see how we'd do that if he never posts any actual content at all. But I'd hate to waste a perfectly good lynch on someone who's just trying to mess around with us, and...

StarvingButStrong

Slightly trust: Fern Forest, Master Blaster
Slightly distrust: Queueing, MadtheSwine (and nearly everybody else.)
Mostly distrust: Autolycus.

Winston Smith

Trust: Autolycus, storyteller0910, Rysto
Distrust: MadTheSwine, Enfant Terrible, Blaster Master

Menocchio
Distrust:Queuing, Sturmhauke, Madtheswine, Autolycus, Enfant Terrible

I made it on 10 of these lists.

The reason stated, by those who gave them, is my feelings on NOT lynching Enfant Terrible. I was right here. The other reason was because of my supposed "fishing" for experience players. I have explained why I asked about this, and I was wrong. The 3rd reason given was "I was to defensive". This came about after being asked multiple times by people to explain myself. I think my main problem is I talk to much. Well that isn't the first time I have been accused of that, and it probably won't be the last. :)

Thats about it, and I think this will be my last time attempting to defend myself (unless the mob comes closer).

I must say Rysto that is a hell of a post, great analysis. However, to avoid bandwagoning I do not change my vote as of yet, and still want to lynch Master Blaster

[Kat]

I agree with you that the lists can give away too much information, but only if someone repeats CaerieD's mistake of putting just one name on the list. I don't actually trust anyone at this point, I just have less suspicion of some people...especially Menocchio. I think we can be pretty sure he's not in the Mafia at this point.

--FCOD

Well, unless Menocchio beat the incredible odds of being randomly assigned as the Godfather after playing as the alpha wolf. :eek:

(Just kidding, Menocchio. I doubt that happened.)

[chrisk]

Okay, I haven't quite caught up yet, but I'm going to bed, and posting some stuff in case I wake up lynched in the morning. :D

I trust:
Mennochio, because our Detective did.
Queuing, for no very good reason. He (she?) posted some useful info about the first night killings and everybody being veterans, and suggested people post their experience level. It shouldn't surprise anyone to learn that I was a very interested kibitzer in the original werewolf, (even getting told off for posting in the gamers thread,) and active on the commentary, but I have no previous experience before this.
Storyteller, because he was the first to point out the vizzini doubletalk thing.
nesta, because she asked random.org about her vote *twice* :)

I distrust:
Smitty, for using random.org on his vote in the first place, and telling us so. Coming up with a random vote is fine, but telling us that it's random seems vaguely slimy - like you're disclaiming responsibility for it that way.
Autolycus, because he seems good at doubletalk, and because he FOS-ed blaster master on his name
Not sure if I distrust FlyingCowOfDoom yet.

and I vote Autolycus

[Santo Rugger]

<snip> Are we still doing trust and distrust lists, or is that out the window now too? I may do one of my own anyway. :D

This sounds to me like somebody who knows the role of, say, 10 players. The only way anybody could know that after only two nights is if they know who the Mafia are. "I'm a cop," to me, sounds like a thinly veiled attempt to pass themselves off as one, trying to gain the trust of us townfolk, and influencing our votes in the early rounds.

Vote chrisk.

[nesta]

Nice catch Rysto. Why would someone try to get everyone to claim when they already shot the idea down after the last game? Because now they’re on the other side and see that it could help them.

I don’t think we can implicate Pleonast quite yet. I thought his idea was a good compromise to a bad strategy when he first proposed it and some of those who supported it probably thought the same thing. He might have too. In hindsight I agree it’s a bad idea to continue posting lists of who we trust since it gives away so much information. The last thing we need at this point is for our other cops to get found out.

I’m not going to vote for chrisk yet, even though I think he’s scum. There’s already a bandwagon started, and I think we made a mistake yesterday by wrapping up the day much too quickly. I thought ET was scum yesterday, and I was wrong, and we might be about chrisk too. Let’s wait a bit and see if we can get some other mafia to out themselves.

[Kat]

Okay, now this troubles me (see below). What's with the sudden and complete change of trusted and mistrusted people? Why did Blaster Master go from trusted to untrusted and Menocchio the opposite? And what did Kivvik and Zuma do that made them untrusted? I don't remember them posting anything very objectionable. True, the later revisions are mostly adding mistrusted people, but the first list to the second is a complete turnaround.

Pleonast

I trust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, cowgirl, Flying Cow of Doom, Menocchio
I mistrust: Blaster Master, Kivvik, MonkeyMensch, Zuma

Pleonast
trust: storyteller0910, Blaster Master, Chrisk, Gadarene.
I mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Queuing.

Pleonast
I trust: Blaster Master, Chrisk, Gadarene, Rysto, storyteller0910.
I mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Menocchio, Queuing.

Pleonast
I trust: Blaster Master, Chrisk, Gadarene, Rysto, storyteller0910.
I mistrust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, Menocchio, Queuing.

[Santo Rugger]

Vote chrisk.

[Suburban Plankton]

I found something interesting as I was looking through my notes from yesterday:


In post 291, Pleonast tells us that he mistrusts Blaster Master.

In post 305, Blaster Master quotes his post, and states that he is in favor of the "trust lists", despite the fact that he is on Pleonast's bad side.

Then, in post 322, Pleonast posts another list. This time, he trusts Blaster Master, giving no explanation for the sudden change of heart.


They were the first and second people to vote for Enfant Terrible.


Blaster Master posted two "trust lists"; Pleonast posted four.

Perhaps they were trying to be extra helpful, or perhaps they were working on a way for the Mafia to communicate during the day.


And they both trusted chrisk.

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

Vote chrisk.Preview, my friend. Preview.

:p

--FCOD

[chrisk]

This sounds to me like somebody who knows the role of, say, 10 players. The only way anybody could know that after only two nights is if they know who the Mafia are. "I'm a cop," to me, sounds like a thinly veiled attempt to pass themselves off as one, trying to gain the trust of us townfolk, and influencing our votes in the early rounds.

[Can't get to sleep and cranky]
Okay, first off, I never said I was a cop! It was a freakin' hypothetical! Can't you get that through your head??

And... I'm not claiming to know ANYTHING. My trust/distrust lists are based purely off of the strategy posts that people are making. That's what this game is supposed to be about - the reading of people.

Trying not to sound paranoid here, but you sound like you're trying way too hard to paint me as suspicious. I'm distrusting you now.
[/CGSC]

[Rysto]

Vote chrisk.
Either use the nifty color chooser, or do
whatever

[NAF1138]

Vote chrisk.

I get your meaning. COLOR=BLUE is the code you are looking for. (with brackets of course)

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

Come on people! Am I the only one that uses the preview button??

:D :p

--FCOD

[Rysto]

Ok, I swear to God I previewed. I have no idea how that got posted.

[Fern Forest]

I continue to think Chrisk's idea in this thread, first raised in the forbidden thread, is a huge mistake but one that might sound good to an unexperienced townie. And I still think he is one.

My sole vote was for sturmhauke but I made it based solely on the drinking buddy comment and as a joke. Well also because you never know what might happen when you throw rocks at someone. And the response was alright. I think there's a chance that sturmhauke survived last night on the chance that we'll do their dirty work for them. I may return in a few days but really I could end up voting for anybody a few days from now.

Damn Queuing, how did you get so distrusted? Suspicious.

But I think I'm going to vote for Gadarene. Lots of agreeing going on there. Not enough meat on those bones.

Well it's still the second day and I'm still working on feelings.


Is everyone posting? If not I know we have people standing by ready to come in and kill or be killed.

[Gadarene]

But I think I'm going to vote for Gadarene. Lots of agreeing going on there. Not enough meat on those bones.

My roommate says this shirt makes me look too thin.

Anyway, this whole thing is now making me feel very paranoid. I bandwagoned Enfant Terrible, to his detriment, and some of the people I initially trusted are now looking a good deal less trustworthy. At the moment I'm inclined to hesitate before making any substantive analysis; I hope people see that as merely tentative and not suspicious.

One or two comments, though:

I think there's a chance that sturmhauke survived last night on the chance that we'll do their dirty work for them. I may return in a few days but really I could end up voting for anybody a few days from now.

I agree with this.

Damn Queuing, how did you get so distrusted? Suspicious.

I agree with this as well.

:)

[Suburban Plankton]

You know, I didn't like the idea of "lists" from the beginning. I didn't necessarily think that those who were promoting them were scum, but I thought that they were at best misguided.
Now that we've all had a chance to pore over them today, I'm quite conflicted.

Either we've already flushed out two or three scum based on the fact that they couldn't keep their lies straight,
Or we're about to lynch an innocent citizen or two for no other crime than not knowing when to keep their mouths shut.

I'm still not quite sure which direction I'm leaning, but this has me thinking...
[Can't get to sleep and cranky]
Okay, first off, I never said I was a cop! It was a freakin' hypothetical! Can't you get that through your head??

And... I'm not claiming to know ANYTHING. My trust/distrust lists are based purely off of the strategy posts that people are making. That's what this game is supposed to be about - the reading of people.

Trying not to sound paranoid here, but you sound like you're trying way too hard to paint me as suspicious. I'm distrusting you now.
[/CGSC]
Specifically, it has me thinking that chrisk is not doing himself any favors with the tone of his posts. Too much righteous indignation seems a little...too much.

I'm not quite ready to vote yet, mainly because I have a couple different suspects and I'm not sure which one I like best. I don't necessarily want to jump on the chrisk bandwagon just because, at least not yet.

[zuma]

Before I do a re-read, might I suggest we not place a 10th vote on ANYONE the first couple RL days, barring glaring guilt of someone or a general concensus? I know we have the cooling-off period, but better safe than sorry.

The first day ending so early really hurt us, and personally, anyone who places a 10th vote will immediately become suspicious in my eyes.

I think Winston Smith needs to give his reasoning for ending the day so abruptly, and not giving Enfant Terrible a chance to role-claim (and before anyone points it out, yes I criticized Enfant for role-claiming early, but Menocchio had a point about how everyone is claiming vanilla townie by default... Regardless, Enfant should have been given an opportunity to do a real, about-to-be-lynched role claim).

[chrisk]

I'm still not quite sure which direction I'm leaning, but this has me thinking...

Specifically, it has me thinking that chrisk is not doing himself any favors with the tone of his posts. Too much righteous indignation seems a little...too much.


Point taken. But righteous indignation is not the same as cranky indignation :)

[Rysto]

Before I do a re-read, might I suggest we not place a 10th vote on ANYONE the first couple RL days, barring glaring guilt of someone or a general concensus? I know we have the cooling-off period, but better safe than sorry.
I agree wholeheartedly. We need to hear from everybody and get a good discussion going before stringing somebody up.

[chrisk]

I agree wholeheartedly. We need to hear from everybody and get a good discussion going before stringing somebody up.

Good by me, and not just because I've got a few votes against me right now. *sigh*

[Blaster Master]

Wow, I seem to have made a lot of enemies over night. I will take this opportunity to attempt to explain myself. As I expected would happen if I was wrong, my zealousness on the first day would come back to bite me.

1. I will accept my share of the blame for lynching Enfant Terrible. However, I felt his actions were suspicious, which I justified when I voted. Unfortunately, with the shortened day, I did not get to re-evaluate my vote, which very likely would have changed, because I felt Enfant Terrible's death row plea to be the most convincing of his argument, especially pointing out a blatant point I had overlooked.

2. Someone (I don't remember who) also called me out for "demanding" Winston Smith's justification of why he mistrusted me. I found it suspicious that he listed reasons for trust and distrust for several individuals, but did not give any reason for his mistrust of me and his trust of another individual (I don't remember who). I appreciate the chance to explain my reasoning for whatever may have caused suspicion to fall my way.

Further, it was interesting to me that the last few votes for Enfant Terrible happened quickly and without justification; among those final votes was Winston Smith. As has been stated earlier, ending a day quickly, especially when the person being accused is a townie, is absolutely in the favor of the mafia. Thus, between these two actions, Winston Smith has drawn much suspicion from me.

3. The death of CaerieD, while tragic, was not unexpected for me. Her trust/distrust list was suspicious to me, largely because it differed so greatly from mine, and other actions were drawing attention to herself. Because of that, I had her pinned with fairly high confidence that she was mafia and, if I were the VIG or SK, she would have been one of my targets. Precisely because of that reasoning, and that I had cowgirl pinned as a power role; my suspicion lies that cowgirl was killed by the mafia and either the VIG or the SK killed CaerieD. Obviously, I'm going to have to re-evaluate my lists based on this new information.

4. I also agree with the sentiment not to lynch chrisk yet, or even give him a number of votes. Even with as many votes as he has gained already, it is dangerous. I imagine at least a couple of the votes for him are townies; thus, all the mafia have to do, assuming there's at least 6-8 of them, is trickle their votes in, repeating the same justification, and then the countdown starts and they've shortened the day again, putting us even farther behind. That said, I do remove my endorsement of trust for him, but he's obviously not my top suspect.

5. The trust lists: I still don't think they're as misguided as many have bandwagoned to think they were. Unfortunately, our reliable detective is dead and largely due to the mis-use of the list, had she placed perhaps 3 names on the list, she may have lived another day or two to allow that list to converge toward highly accurate information. That said, I further agree with the sentiment that Menocchio is town-friendly and should be treated as the closest thing we've got to a "confirmed townie". However, as it seems to be so frowned upon now for giving out too much information, I will also cease posting my trust/mistrust lists.

[Menocchio]

Excellent work, Rysto.

I think we may have uncovered a conspiracy here.
I shall defer my vote for chrisk (lych all liars), but only to prevent setting off the lynch early. It'll take something huge to take my vote away. Like a mafioso confessing.

[Fern Forest]

Anyway, this whole thing is now making me feel very paranoid.
And well you should be. There are at least 2 factions out and about in this town that want to kill you. And me. And every single citizen of this fair town. No baseless suspicions here. It's realinoia. I coined that with the accent on the al and the first i pronounced like the i in pit.

Either way I threw some rocks at you and am very comfortable with your reaction. Mainly you actually read what I had to say. So I Unvote Gadarene. Even though youMistrust: chrisk, sturmhauke, Autolycus, Enfant TerribleThree people I think they want us to kill for them and one we did.

[Hockey Monkey]

OK, in just a few hours since the break of dawn, there is A LOT more information to pour over. I will do a more in depth analysis if I get time tomorrow during work, but my initial impressions after reading through today's posts have me re-thinking at least one of my earlier positions. Blaster Master is looking very fishy to me right now. I was trusting him because of his very detailed posts about beat cop probabilites. CaerieD listed him as a mistrusted. I think this was her breadcrumb. Then going back and reading Blaster Master's trust/mistrust lists, I saw that he listed Lakai as trusted, but Lakai had not posted anything that could sustantiate even getting on a trusted list. Seems like he knows who his "friends" are.

Blaster Master is looking like scum right now to me. Especially after his explaination post. That only served to increase my suspicion. I'm also inclined to think Queuing is town. I'll be looking closely at all the people that Blaster Master put on his trust lists. FlyingCowOfDoom you are also looking suspicious.

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

FlyingCowOfDoom you are also looking suspicious.Is there any particular reason that you've had it out for me since the game started? You keep calling me suspicious, but you never say why.

--FCOD

[Menocchio]

Oh, and unvote Queuing.

[Blaster Master]

I saw that he listed Lakai as trusted, but Lakai had not posted anything that could sustantiate even getting on a trusted list.
You will get no argument from me here. What point you are missing is that I didn't claim that many of the people were trusted for any particular reason, but in fact were more of a gut reaction; it was in fact a strategy to detect scum patterns. My theory was, as I generally had a large amount of trust yesterday, to fill my trust list with largely hogwash, and see how many scum attempted to hide their stench behind that. Obviously, that was a strategic mistake because I had apparently misread several individuals on my mistrust list which was accurate to my suspicions.

It's little surprise I'm now second on the chopping block behind chrisk; as was mentioned earlier, this game tends to damn those who talk too much and those who talk too little.

[sturmhauke]

My sole vote was for sturmhauke but I made it based solely on the drinking buddy comment and as a joke. Well also because you never know what might happen when you throw rocks at someone. And the response was alright.
Oh, I quite agree. Don't forget I threw a big ol' bomb down in the last game. :D

On that note, I'm going to throw out a vote for nesta. Until now, nesta has neither voted nor been voted for. So, whadda ya say to that?

[Fern Forest]

Is there any particular reason that you've had it out for me since the game started? You keep calling me suspicious, but you never say why.

--FCOD
I've also noticed that there seems to be some mistrust of you (my suggestion that you get killed was mostly based on other people talking about you) yet I've now eviewed your posts and didn't find anything that seemed out of place.

Maybe I'm too trusting but right now I only have one sense of suspicion so I may as well cast the stone and see what happens. For post 275 I throw a stone at brewha. Bad vibes.

[Hockey Monkey]

Dammit! We're kinda getting our asses kicked, aren't we?

As I had suspected, chrisk is still alive. After reading Rysto's post (#589) it's pretty clear to me what's going on. CaerieD made a very fatal mistake by claiming to trust only Menocchio. I'm not sure who his cohorts are at this point, but I'm convinced that chrisk is scum. Let's string him up!

Vote chrisk. <edited color tag>

I trust: Menocchio, Rysto, glee
I don't trust: Blaster Master, Queuing, Aguecheek

--FCOD

Very quick to point out that chrisk is still alive. I think he was misguided but well intentioned with his open detection idea. Starting up the bandwagon to cast suspicion away from the Mafioso me thinks.

Seems like you are sure that CaerieD's mistake was to only put one name on her trust list. Like you had a discussion about it with the others.

Hey, this is just my take on it. I'm convinced you are scum and we should string YOU up FCOD! But I'm not ready to cast the blue vote yet.

[Kat]

I'm also inclined to think Queuing is town.

Well, his suggestion of the countdown period is a point in his favor. This: "I first asked for the experience of players to try to find out if people would lie about it. If people would deny knowing what they are doing, and then appear to do some tricky move." is a point against him. What's to keep him from pointing to an inexperienced player's honest error and calling it a 'tricky move'? He has since admitted it might not be a good idea, so that idea might itself be an honest error (or it might be a 'tricky move'). I'm reserving judgement for now.

Is there any particular reason that you've had it out for me since the game started? You keep calling me suspicious, but you never say why.

It's cuz you've got DOOM in your name, of course. That's why I'm suspicious of you, anyway. ;)

My theory was, as I generally had a large amount of trust yesterday, to fill my trust list with largely hogwash, and see how many scum attempted to hide their stench behind that.

And this explanation just makes me go "WTF?" How does that follow? I just don't see it. Up to now, I thought that you'd posted some helpful stuff, but this is just gobbledygook. I don't know if anyone else does this, but I like to keep track of who is suspected and trusted by people who offer useful analysis posts, on the assumption that they've applied the same analysis to the people they accuse or defend (see my posts in the original thread to see the notes I made to that effect). Now I know that, at the very least, such statements from you aren't trustworthy in that respect. There is also the possibility that you're covering yourself in case one of your "trust list" turns out to be Mafia, so you can claim "I didn't really trust them, it was just a trap for the Mafia." Is it because you know that there's something in the list that isn't just an honest mis-evaluation of someone?

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

I've also noticed that there seems to be some mistrust of youI don't think anyone's said anything about mistrusting me except pimaspinner, but I may have missed something.

Very quick to point out that chrisk is still alive. I think he was misguided but well intentioned with his open detection idea. Starting up the bandwagon to cast suspicion away from the Mafioso me thinks.I was quick to point it out because I had posted about it during day one. BTW, I wasn't the first one to point this out. Why aren't you suspicious of Rysto?

Seems like you are sure that CaerieD's mistake was to only put one name on her trust list. Like you had a discussion about it with the others.Duh. Everyone else had multiple people to trust. She was the only person (AFAIK) that listed one person on his/her trust list. BTW, I wasn't the first one to point this out. Why aren't you suspicious of MonkeyMench?

Hey, this is just my take on it. I'm convinced you are scum and we should string YOU up FCOD! But I'm not ready to cast the blue vote yet.So basically, you have no good reason to suspect me. I can't see how your accusations would benefit the Mafia since you're the only one that thinks I'm scummy, so I'm forced to conclude that you have it out for me simply because you hate flying cows. Or maybe you hate doom. Either way, I forgive you, because I think we're all a little paranoid right now.

It's cuz you've got DOOM in your name, of course. That's why I'm suspicious of you, anyway.Hey, the doom is just my weekend hobby. Besides, who doesn't enjoy raining down a little doom on occasion?

--FCOD

[Fretful Porpentine]

Hmm. I don't want to jump on the "lynch chrisk" bandwagon as yet, partly because I am inherently suspicious of bandwagons, partly because chrisk didn't vote at all in the last round of votes, and I'm having a hard time believing that a self-respecting Mafia member wouldn't vote for someone.

As I said, I am inherently suspicious of bandwagons, particularly those who end up lynching someone innocent. Those who voted for Enfant Terrible are:

Pleonast (after first voting for Kivvik)
BlasterMaster
ArizonaTeach
FlyingCow (after first voting for Autolycus)
Gadarene
Malacandra (after first voting for Autolycus)
Storyteller0910
pimaspinner
Cowgirl
Winston Smith

Obviously, these are not all Mafia -- in fact one of them, sadly, has been exonerated by the last night's events. The two who stand out a mile to me, though, are the two who switched their votes from Autolycus to Enfant Terrible -- that is, from one bandwagon to another.

I want to go over the sequence of posts before I vote to lynch anyone, but Malacandra and FlyingCow are at the head of my list at the moment.

[ArizonaTeach]

Eep. I was vote number three, was I? Well, I explained my reason for voting for Enfant Terrible in my vote post and in the post prior to that. It's the out of nowhere votes without reasoning that I would (and will) look at. I also have not posted a trust/distrust list because I flat out think it's a bad idea. I've limited myself to individual cases. With that in mind, I have said that I am suspicious of BlasterMaster, and annoyed with Autolycus, but I think that Rysto made an excellent case, which, if the "right" person is lynched (or even killed at night), might be the key that unlocks the game.

Finally, I don't like that chrisk is trying to get the Autolycus bandwagon rolling again. Don't like that at all.

My vote will more or less boil down to two things - who do I suspect CaerieD investigated, and who voted for Enfant Terrible without stating a reason?

[Fern Forest]

I don't think anyone's said anything about mistrusting me except pimaspinner, but I may have missed something.
Hmm, I guess I just wanted to make the Flying Pig joke.

Boy, where is he when you need him.

[Autolycus]

Ughs, I hads me a hard day's night yesterday. A killa 12 hour shift thens a night on the town with me's buds. Its was fun and shit, but on the way home I gots me into a fistfight! Me versus six guys. Got my ass handed to me, sads to say. Too much pasta and nots enough exercise, me mom always says. Oh well, right. I gots my pulse so no big whoopy.

More murders in this town, go fig eh? This fuckin' town gets worse by the day. Pretty soons it coulds be all mafia, so then what'll 'ey do, rob and murders each otha? A shitty situation for everyones is what I say.

I hear a lynch mob outside my window last night, fuckin' woke me up and everythin' If the town's gonna start murderins people too, then this damn place reallys has lost it They kepts chantin' over and over, "kill the mafia," "kill the mafia" but the poor bum they killed wasn't even in the god damn mafia. Buncha maroons. Anyways, word in town is that everyone wants to know who is clean and who aint' Peoples been comin up to me and askin my opinion. I's tell 'em to screw 'emself. Shit, I knows too well tha proverb: "the neck thats sticks out gets chopped off" All I'm gonna says is that Blaster Master and Chrisk give me the creepers. You wants an esplanation, youz better be buyin' a lotta booze. haha

[Lakai]

If I can be sure of anything in this game, it is that mafia voted for Enfant.

So based on that logic, I went through the people who voted for him and looked for trends.

Here is the list of people who have voted for Enfant in the order they voted:

Pleonast (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406246&postcount=322)
Blaster Master (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407488&postcount=375)
ArizonaTeach (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408325&postcount=423)
FlyingCowOfDoom (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408374&postcount=427)
Gadarene (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408380&postcount=428)
Malacandra (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408427&postcount=436)
StoryTeller0901 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408441&postcount=438)
Pimaspinner (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408817&postcount=475)
cowgirl (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408916&postcount=483)
WinstonSmith (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408935&postcount=485)

A few trends are present. ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, FlyingCowOfDoom, Malacandra and Pimaspinner were all sucpicous of Autolycus and then voted for Enfant. They all had basiclly the same reasoning. Though I can't make anything out of this. Autolycus was fooling around, and it is reasonable that his behavior caused a lot of people to get upset. Of course, some of these people could have been mafia jumping on the bandwagon.

Another trend was to cast suspicion on the crew that wanted to vote for Sturmhauke while making a case to lynch Enfant. Pleonast did not do this in his vote post, but did so here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407721&postcount=391) and here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408687&postcount=461) . Storyteller0910 does this in his vote post. Winston's rational prior to the clinching post is here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=414041&page=10&pp=50), and it looks like he went after TheMadSwine, who was suspicious of Sturmhauke not getting killed.

The most suspicious out of all the voters is Pleonast. I think he supported chrisk's idea because he knew it would help the family. I think he saw that Sturmhauke was being targeted and tried to steer the crowd in another direction. He also seem a bit too happy to post trust and distrust lists.

I know cowgirl isn't mafia. Blaster Master seems to have a good reason to vote for Enfant and he did come out against the trust and mistrust list. What I think happened was that Pleonast did not want to jump on the Autolycus bandwagon just yet, and came up with a good reason to lynch Enfant. Blaster Master might have jumped on it because the reasoning was better than anything else out there. Then the vote was inflated by several mafia members and Enfant was ultimately killed.

I also suspect that the mistrust I started with Queuing was inflated because he was after Sturmhauke at first. That is why I think he ended up on so many mistrust lists.

I vote Pleonast.

[Blaster Master]

On further analysis, I'd like to expand on point 3 of my recent post (post 620). Our strategy is fundamentally flawed at this time. Let's evaluate my analysis was further, that cowgirl was killed by the mafia and CaerieD was killed by the VIG/SK. From my observation, cowgirl was relatively inactive in posting yesterday and, as far as I can tell, managed to stay under EVERYONE's radar, neither on anyone's trust or distrust list. In retrospect, it's clearly more of an artifact of the speed at which the thread is moving; however, this is precisely the sort of tell I'd expect mafia to pick up on for a power roll: doctor trying to lay low, detective trying to gather some information before outing herself, or vig trying to slowly pick people off. Meanwhile, CaerieD made several posts, a few of which, at least to me, looked suspsicious, like supporting the "pretend to be a cop" idea (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8405880#post8405880) (obviously, in hindsight, she agreed because she WAS a cop), and also voted to lynch Sturmhauke originally, which, as many had pointed out, looked like a mafia bandwagon.

What's the point of all this? Worst case, which seems to be the likely one, the VIG killed our detective, and even in best case, he still killed a townie. I made a suggestion at least twice yesterday that we should not only be voting on a lynch, but we should also be discussing the nighttime target of the VIG. The VIG is stuck between a rock and a hard place because, maybe he should off the #2 vote getter, but what if he REALLY doesn't think he's mafia or SK or actually is, in fact, the #2 vote getting? Essentially, the VIG was shooting in the dark last night, and that cost us. Now that we don't have a detective, and we're several townies down, we REALLY need to start trying to take better advantage of the VIG role, because he and the doctor are the only two roles now that can help catch up. If we play our cards right and get a good lynching AND a good night target for the VIG, we can potentially make up for a bad lynching and the bad night we had.



Also, as part of my scanning to make my point above, I came across two interesting posts of CaerieD's which leads me to believe that the general sentiment of what her breadcrumb is is incorrect. One post which has been pointed out isthat she trusted Menacchio #326 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8406256#post8406256) , but in the same post she also mentioned she distrusted Autolycus (and Enfant Terrible as well, but that was obviously not the breadcrumb). Even more interesting, soon after day one started in post #261, she states that she doesn't trust Autolycus (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8405550#post8405550). That's even before we started the whole trust/mistrust list. So my question to you all is, was her breadcrumb that Menacchio is town-friendly or that Autolycus is scum? Based on the post order, I'm more inclined to believe the latter, or am I missing something?

[Lakai]

So my question to you all is, was her breadcrumb that Menacchio is town-friendly or that Autolycus is scum? Based on the post order, I'm more inclined to believe the latter, or am I missing something?

Distrusting Autolylcus was just the flavor of the day. It is more likely that she investigated a civilian and not a mafioso.

[Fern Forest]

I had an idea earlier but forgot about it. Thankfully I remembered. The person we lynch during the day has a chance to convince us of their towniness. The person the VG kills at night has no such chance. Therefore if we have a person we think is really scummy (maybe Autolychus seeing Blaster's post) we can leave that to our VG and focus our efforts to figure other people out through the lynching process during the day.

I'd like to ask our VG to kill Autolychus tonight and suggest that the SK might want to off Pleonast.

[Autolycus]

I'd like to ask our VG to kill Autolychus tonight and suggest that the SK might want to off Pleonast.

That's a wicked scummy things to say. What, you'z too chicken to off me ya'self? You got some guts, askin' somebody to do you'z dirty works. I dont knows nothin' 'bout that Pleonast bum, but if ya gonna targets me, at least spell my fuckin' name right, ok?

[Blaster Master]

Distrusting Autolylcus was just the flavor of the day. It is more likely that she investigated a civilian and not a mafioso.
True, the odds are probably about 3 to 1 that, at random, she would have chosen a town friendly person, but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility, and the fact that I found two posts about Autolycus and only one about Menocchio is what got me thinking. If we ignore the possibility, we could end up in this scenario: she actually investigated Autolycus and thus he is in fact scum, but we misinterpret her crumbs, and incorrectly label Menocchio as confirmed town-friendly when he's really mafia as well; that's a HUGE advantage to the mafia because then he can start slipping in all kinds of bad advice for the lynchings.

Now, regardless of who she investigated, I'm still inclined to believe Menocchio is more likely town-friendly, but I am more warning that he is by no means confirmed. I want many of the other folk to look and if a lot of people think I'm off my rocker, then I'll drop the idea.

[Blaster Master]

I'd like to ask our VG to kill Autolychus tonight and suggest that the SK might want to off Pleonast.

Now that you mention it, I'm starting to get concerned about the SK for two reasons: one, the town isn't doing well at this point, so he may decide to start helping the mafia tonight, and second, if he lives at the end, he wins and everyone else loses. OTOH, because of the unpredictability of who he's targetting AND that as long as he's alive, the VIG can do an extra pro-town kill at night, he's still probably more of a threat to the mafia at this point than the town.

That said, it actually looks like the mafia would benefit to try to track him down because it eliminates the chance for what could be a huge swing in our favor in a single night, and, if the VIG gets him, he becomes a confirmed townie. For us, I think he's still beneficial precisely because I expect the mafia might be gunning for him as well and he keeps the VIG active, so we probably want to leave him alive, if possible, until about mid-game.

Basically, my point is, while we can probably rely on the VIG doing what's in the best interest of the town; the SK is pretty much a crap shoot at this point unless we can manage both a good lynching AND a good VIG kill tonight.

[kivvik]

Okay, now this troubles me (see below). What's with the sudden and complete change of trusted and mistrusted people? Why did Blaster Master go from trusted to untrusted and Menocchio the opposite? And what did Kivvik and Zuma do that made them untrusted? I don't remember them posting anything very objectionable. True, the later revisions are mostly adding mistrusted people, but the first list to the second is a complete turnaround.

I was untrusted because Pleonast has something against palindromes, such as my name. Can't speak for Zuma. I was removed from the list when people starting posting and we had stuff to go off of other than random prejudices against perfectly fine letter patterns.

I agree that voting should be held for many hours, as we try to cope with the loss of our Detective and fellow Citizen, and to generate stuff to analyze. As such, I shan't jump on chrisk until I can read more to comfirm a true feeling on him/her.

Despite his 'unique' manner of speech-text, I have my own views on Autolycus that do not involve a FoS. He pings me as pro-town at the moment, although that all depends on whether I'm reading his posts right, or if all he has posted, other than votes and such, is just roleplaying and nothing more.

Going off of Rysto's post, #589, he goes on about the various 'detection' systems that were spoke of. chrisk is under fire for posting a variant of StarvingButStrong's idea from the WW commentary thread. Pleonast is catching some flak for the trust/mistrust system. And StarvingButStrong was trying to work some sort of psychological angle with his/her 'post your sex' idea.
That's a lot of people fishing for information. Pleonast had chrisk on his trusted side many times, although it was not reciprocated. StarvingButStrong did not affiliate with either on their list. If I had more analyzing skill, I'm sure that I could make something out of that. For now, just throwing that out there.

[zuma]

Also, as part of my scanning to make my point above, I came across two interesting posts of CaerieD's which leads me to believe that the general sentiment of what her breadcrumb is is incorrect. One post which has been pointed out isthat she trusted Menacchio #326 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8406256#post8406256) , but in the same post she also mentioned she distrusted Autolycus (and Enfant Terrible as well, but that was obviously not the breadcrumb). Even more interesting, soon after day one started in post #261, she states that she doesn't trust Autolycus (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8405550#post8405550). That's even before we started the whole trust/mistrust list. So my question to you all is, was her breadcrumb that Menacchio is town-friendly or that Autolycus is scum? Based on the post order, I'm more inclined to believe the latter, or am I missing something?


Frankly, I don't see this at all, Blaster Master. Autolycus was indeed, the flavor of the day and came out of the gate acting suspicious. The post order was simply that Menocchio had not posted AT ALL IN THE GAME when she voiced her initial suspicions of Autolycus. Once Menocchio came out and made his first post of the game's "day", CaerieD's next post was her "trust: menocchio" post. She's not going to come out as soon as the day starts and announce her trust of Menocchio when he hadn't even posted to the game yet!

Your theory falls apart even more in that if she was going to breadcrumb Autolycus, she would not have listed him as secondary in her mistrust to Enfant Terrible. Menocchio was clearly her breadcrumbing.

[Blaster Master]

The post order was simply that Menocchio had not posted AT ALL IN THE GAME when she voiced her initial suspicions of Autolycus. Once Menocchio came out and made his first post of the game's "day", CaerieD's next post was her "trust: menocchio" post. She's not going to come out as soon as the day starts and announce her trust of Menocchio when he hadn't even posted to the game yet!
You're right, I'd missed that aspect... when I was scanning through the first time, I could have sworn I'd seen his name; a perusal proved otherwise. With that said, my theory probably is hogwash.

[Fern Forest]

That's a wicked scummy things to say. What, you'z too chicken to off me ya'self? You got some guts, askin' somebody to do you'z dirty works. I dont knows nothin' 'bout that Pleonast bum, but if ya gonna targets me, at least spell my fuckin' name right, ok?
Hey, this is no back room thing. I'm just asking him right out in the open "Would you mind killing this guy for me?" But since I added an extra H to your name I'll ask him to make it as painless as possible. I'm sure a tough guy like you understands ... eggs ... omelet, right?

Blaster Master, I don't think NAF1138 (red to draw his attention) has completely answered our questions on when the SK wins. If the mafia kill everyone but him does he win? Isn't he technically town so don't they have to kill him too? That seems like a real crap shoot on his part. At one point it will be 2 townies left and 50/50 he'll get killed. And that's after avoiding all these flying knives.

Conversely is it the end when the town kills the last mafioso and he's still alive? Or do we then have to find and kill him for us to win?

We're certainly down but not out yet. I'm thinking of volunteering to mod the next round, Mods permitting, so I've been playing around with numbers. This is what things look like now if I guess 10 scum

Total Town Scum
32 22 10 Day 2
31 21.31 9.69 Night 3
28 18.94 9.06 Day 3
27 18.26 8.74 Night 4
24 15.91 8.09 Day 4
23 15.25 7.75 Night 5
20 12.92 7.08 Day 5
19 12.27 6.73 Night 6
16 9.98 6.02 Day 6
15 9.36 5.64 Night 7
12 7.11 4.89 Day 7
11 6.52 4.48 Night 8
8 4.33 3.67 Day 8
7 3.79 3.21 Night 9
4 1.71 2.29 Day 9
It looks like they'll take the lead on Day 9. Of course we don't have fractions of people and we'll probably lose the VG and SK along the way. Now if we guess that happens, that on the night of the 6th the SK dies and the VG becomes mere town then things slow down and we lose majority on the 10th day but with a lot more people in town.

We have to take out 9 scum. We can lose 20 townies in the process and still have a 50/50 chance at victory. So as long as 1 out of every 3 kills is a mafioso we can still win. But one of those three will certainly be town which means us lynchers, the VG and SK have to kill mafioso 1 out of every 2 kills. And the SK isn't necessarily helping us. Hmm, grim.

Pleonast got a mention from not me not because of his idea about the trust lists but who he had in his trust lists. Not particularly strong but we've got some damn good liars in this game and I've just got this thin strand of disrtust.

Autolycus continues to strike me as conspicuously there. Perhaps he's the mobster so stereotypical that he keeps attention and discusion on himself while allowing the other mobsters to hide because of the distraction. I still think it would be a good idea for our VG to off him when the sun sets.

[zuma]

As much as it pains me to play Autolycus's game:


/in real life, once only explanaiton for the doomed*

I am playing a characer in this game. React as you see fit. As per my silence today, I had a 12 hour work day ^^;;;;

***** /role-play on

I suspects everyone who's too nice or too quiet. My gut is leaning towards Blaster Master latllies, but I gots no solid evidence. I heard about some randoms killler lasts night, and that worrys me the most. Actually that's not true, I got into a fist fight with my local frat today, and that scares me the most >_<;;;

Ughs, I hads me a hard day's night yesterday. A killa 12 hour shift thens a night on the town with me's buds. Its was fun and shit, but on the way home I gots me into a fistfight! Me versus six guys. Got my ass handed to me, sads to say. Too much pasta and nots enough exercise, me mom always says. Oh well, right. I gots my pulse so no big whoopy.

Peoples been comin up to me and askin my opinion. I's tell 'em to screw 'emself. Shit, I knows too well tha proverb: "the neck thats sticks out gets chopped off" All I'm gonna says is that Blaster Master and Chrisk give me the creepers. You wants an esplanation, youz better be buyin' a lotta booze. haha

Is his fight he's talking about his fellow mafia handing his ass to him on the mafia boards? Maybe they're even more fed up with him than we are. I'm inclined to let him run his mouth for a while.

[chrisk]

Been rereading more, think I agree with those who say that there was something mafi-ish about Enfant's lynching. Because of that, and because someone's FOS seems to be a little bit itchy, I am changing my vote.

Vote Gadarene

Still far from sure, but I've been convinced to swing my distrust away from Autolycus for a while at least, and he seemed like the next obvious candidate.

[chrisk]

Oh, and for the sake of ease of tallying, I should note:

Unvote Autolycus

[Rysto]

Blaster Master, I'm not buying what you're selling. You say that the Mafia went after cowgirl. I realize it's dangerous to believe we can duplicate the Mafia's thinking, but in the face of what looks very much like a concerted effort on the part of the Mafia to flush out Cops using these trust lists(an effort, I might add, that you were right in the middle of), I just can't believe that it was the Mafia who killed cowgirl. You know what I think? I think that you're desperately grasping at straws, trying to come a theory, any theory, that just might pull your ass out of the fire -- or, failing that, muddy the waters enough to buy you and the rest of your Mafia buddies some time. My vote for chrisk stands, but you're right on my list after him. Or, and MadTheSwine? You're in the hole. Pleonast, you're batting clean-up.

[ArizonaTeach]

Been rereading more, think I agree with those who say that there was something mafi-ish about Enfant's lynching. Because of that, and because someone's FOS seems to be a little bit itchy, I am changing my vote.

Vote Gadarene

Still far from sure, but I've been convinced to swing my distrust away from Autolycus for a while at least, and he seemed like the next obvious candidate.Wait, what? Well, this clinches it for me. After I mention my suspicions about you trying to get the Autolycus bandwagon going again, you vote for Gadarene? Because of "finger of suspicion"? You're gonna have to show me that, because looking at the posts, I don't see it. What I do see is that Fern Forest voted, then unvoted Gadarene, which I don't believe is very telling, but more importantly that Rysto pointed Gadarene out as possible scum in post #589, along with other people I've suspected were mafia. Was your vote meant to put us off the scent? Is Gadarene scum, too? Looking at Pleonast's trust and untrust, I notice you, BlasterMaster, and Gadarene come up a lot. Are we getting a quorum here? No, this out of nowhere vote change to an out of nowhere vote seals the deal for me.

Vote chrisk.

On preview, I agree with Rysto.

[chrisk]

Wait, what? Well, this clinches it for me. After I mention my suspicions about you trying to get the Autolycus bandwagon going again, you vote for Gadarene? Because of "finger of suspicion"? You're gonna have to show me that, because looking at the posts, I don't see it. What I do see is that Fern Forest voted, then unvoted Gadarene, which I don't believe is very telling, but more importantly that Rysto pointed Gadarene out as possible scum in post #589, along with other people I've suspected were mafia. Was your vote meant to put us off the scent? Is Gadarene scum, too? Looking at Pleonast's trust and untrust, I notice you, BlasterMaster, and Gadarene come up a lot. Are we getting a quorum here? No, this out of nowhere vote change to an out of nowhere vote seals the deal for me.

Vote chrisk.

On preview, I agree with Rysto.

It seems like I can't win with you. I don't have any firm idea of who's mafia, and I admit that I wanted to switch away from Autolycus partly because of what you said. (I hadn't meant to 'get a bandwagon going again' - I had still not read some of the swaths of debate from day 1 when I voted for him, and didn't realize how close he'd gotten to getting voted out, before the winds shifted. Somehow, the fact that other people had been suspicious, and then decided to give him another chance, gave me more patience as well.)

Blame me for being a weathervane, and I'll cop to it. But is that really a scum tell? (Well, maybe, but us citizens can be indecisive and swayable too.) Of course, I can't tell you what to think, and protesting too much is just going to seem more suspicious.

*sighs*

If you want me to post some examples of what I thought was slightly suspicious about Gaddy, I'll search through and quote. I admit straight off that there isn't much though.

[Gadarene]

Lakai:
A few trends are present. ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, FlyingCowOfDoom, Malacandra and Pimaspinner were all sucpicous of Autolycus and then voted for Enfant. They all had basiclly the same reasoning. Though I can't make anything out of this. Autolycus was fooling around, and it is reasonable that his behavior caused a lot of people to get upset. Of course, some of these people could have been mafia jumping on the bandwagon.

chrisk:
Been rereading more, think I agree with those who say that there was something mafi-ish about Enfant's lynching. Because of that, and because someone's FOS seems to be a little bit itchy, I am changing my vote.

Vote Gadarene

Well, I was the first to vote for Autolycus, if that means anything. So I only joined one bandwagon...the other I inadvertently started.

If you want me to post some examples of what I thought was slightly suspicious about Gaddy, I'll search through and quote. I admit straight off that there isn't much though.

Please do. I'm not sure how anyone could read anything suspicious from my posts...but then, I guess if you try hard enough, you can find something suspicious in anyone's posts. Especially when you're on the chopping block yourself.

ArizonaTeach:

What I do see is that Fern Forest voted, then unvoted Gadarene, which I don't believe is very telling, but more importantly that Rysto pointed Gadarene out as possible scum in post #589, along with other people I've suspected were mafia. Was your vote meant to put us off the scent? Is Gadarene scum, too? Looking at Pleonast's trust and untrust, I notice you, BlasterMaster, and Gadarene come up a lot. Are we getting a quorum here? No, this out of nowhere vote change to an out of nowhere vote seals the deal for me.

Well, to the extent you think that I have any existing relationship with Blaster Master, Pleonast, or chrisk (who I didn't put on my trust list), that's incorrect...and to demonstrate it, I won't vote for anybody any of them votes for until further notice. :) For the reasons first elucidated by Rysto last page, I'm also becoming suspicious of Blaster Master. I'd trusted him or her initially because he (or she) was one of the people going out of his or her way to be helpful and analytic.

Here's what I don't understand: it's not to anyone's benefit---particularly any townsperson---to intentionally act suspicious, right? It can't possibly help them. So what the hell gives with Autolycus and chrisk? Do they just not care?

[Menocchio]

I'm not sure if we should directly tell the vig who to kill. They'll out themselves if they fail to kill themselves, and besides should be free to follow their own judgement. The best case sceneario is that they kill the SK ASAP, which loses us a loose cannon and gains us a confirmed townie.

What this does mean is that folks singled out as probable scum should defend themselves even if they aren't leading the polls. Don't go to bed with a cloud of suspicion hanging over you.

The SK is scum, and should be lynched as such. I'm still not clear if the SK wins if they're standing come a mafia or town victory, or only if they're the last man standing, but in either case, they aren't on our team.

[zuma]

The thing is, Menocchio, this game is weird in that if we lose the SK, we lose the vig. We are so far behind right now that I almost want to leave the SK alive. With the vig, we get 2 town kills per day, with the SK a loose cannon.

SK alive we get 2 town kills, one loose cannon kill, and one mafia kill.

SK dead we're 1 town kill, 1 mafia kill. And I think the vig kill is actually more valuable to us as the lynch has mafia input, while the vig is acting purely pro-town.

Correct me if I'm wrong in that analysis.

[zuma]

And yes, we need to kill the SK eventually, but right now I think we need the vig to target suspected mafia. I'm not sure how we're going to flush out the SK, but at least for today, I think the vig should target the #2 suspected mafia at their discretion.

[chrisk]

Here's what I don't understand: it's not to anyone's benefit---particularly any townsperson---to intentionally act suspicious, right? It can't possibly help them. So what the hell gives with Autolycus and chrisk? Do they just not care?

I'm not intentionally acting suspicious! Maybe I really can't help it, I... I...


I guess I've been taking this stuff way too seriously ever since something went a way I didn't expect it to. This is just a game, and it really isn't healthy for me to be getting so spun over it...

I'm really, really, really tempted to drop out of the game, not show my username for months in MPSIMS or IMHO for months, maybe the whole board, because I feel really foolish over how badly things have gone - but what could someone else EVER manage to do stepping into my shoes at this point? I mean, REALLY??

(Runs off into a corner, hyperventilating.)

:o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o

[zuma]

And this is yet another reason why ending the day early on day one was so disastrous. The vig had nothing to go on. With the cop gone, we need to manage our time wisely. It's probably our biggest weapon at this point. We should have been nearing the end of day one with 3 dead and a lot more information. Now we have 6 dead.

[zuma]

I'm not intentionally acting suspicious! Maybe I really can't help it, I... I...


I guess I've been taking this stuff way too seriously ever since something went a way I didn't expect it to. This is just a game, and it really isn't healthy for me to be getting so spun over it...

I'm really, really, really tempted to drop out of the game, not show my username for months in MPSIMS or IMHO for months, maybe the whole board, because I feel really foolish over how badly things have gone - but what could someone else EVER manage to do stepping into my shoes at this point? I mean, REALLY??

(Runs off into a corner, hyperventilating.)

:o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o


You're safe for a few days, chrisk. Dropping out of the game if you're town just hurts us. I'd spend your time giving a complete and total defense of your "pretend to be the cop" strategy after initially poo-pooing it in that other thread. Frankly, I could be convinced you screwed up. I plan on voting for you at this point, but give us something to work with.

[Menocchio]

We can't control the Vig, the Vig just ends up firing blindly if they don't have a good target (and they rarely will), and the SK isn't on our side. We need them both stopped. When that happens, we go from losing three a night to only one.

[nesta]

On that note, I'm going to throw out a vote for nesta. Until now, nesta has neither voted nor been voted for. So, whadda ya say to that?

I wish I'd had a chance to vote yesterday, but by the time I was done catching up the day was over. I was hoping that Day 1 would last a couple more real-time days so I could get a handle on who was who and not just cast a paranoia vote.

[zuma]

We can't control the Vig, the Vig just ends up firing blindly if they don't have a good target (and they rarely will), and the SK isn't on our side. We need them both stopped. When that happens, we go from losing three a night to only one.


I don't think the vig is firing blindly. I can think of a few good targets if I were the vig. vig basically gives us two mafia targets, no?

[Pleonast]

After quickly skimming everything since the day started:

My very first trust/mistrust was hypothetical (as was my first vote). Don't put any weight on switching from that.

Why I like the trust/mistrust lists: it helps summarize what each poster thinks. This makes it easy for someone skimming the thread to get an idea of general thoughts. Yes, it will help the Mafia, but it helps us too. And we're the ones that need info. Makes it easier for the more casual players to make informed decisions.

That said, the lists must be used with caution. It's unfortunate the Detective didn't play carefully enough.

I'll post more after I've read in more detail.

[zuma]

My thinking is that while the town kill is a general mish-mash of mostly town but a good portion of scum, the vig is 100% town acting in the town's best interest. Since our only weapons to eliminate scum are the lynch and the vig kill, losing the vig is a bad thing at this point in this game. The SK is a wild-card at this point.

[Menocchio]

I don't think the vig is firing blindly. I can think of a few good targets if I were the vig. vig basically gives us two mafia targets, no?
The Vig lacks the accountability and quality control of the lynchings. They can't ask for feedback on who to target. They don't allow for the target to role-claim or defend their actions. They just kill. They're a liability and should be stopped.

[Gadarene]

Pleonast:
Yes, [making trust lists] will help the Mafia, but it helps us too. And we're the ones that need info. Makes it easier for the more casual players to make informed decisions.

I think this is the most important point made so far today. Scum already know who's scum and who isn't; it's the ordinary joes out there that most benefit from additional information.

zuma:
My thinking is that while the town kill is a general mish-mash of mostly town but a good portion of scum, the vig is 100% town acting in the town's best interest. Since our only weapons to eliminate scum are the lynch and the vig kill, losing the vig is a bad thing at this point in this game. The SK is a wild-card at this point.

Menocchio:
The Vig lacks the accountability and quality control of the lynchings. They can't ask for feedback on who to target. They don't allow for the target to role-claim or defend their actions. They just kill. They're a liability and should be stopped.

I think I agree with zuma here. While the Vig can't ask for feedback on who to target, he or she can certainly read what's being written and decide for themselves. Unless it becomes increasingly clear that the Vig is picking off town right and left, that's good enough for me.

[MadTheSwine]

How come there were only 2 kills last night? NAF1138 ,if a Miller blocks a role player, are we told about it somehow,or is it not mentioned in anyway?

[zuma]

The vig is a moot point anyway. SK is scum along with mafia. Personally I have no idea who the SK is at this point. The vig has to kill at night, so they should just probably target anyone appearing anti-town.

[Menocchio]

The vig is a moot point anyway. SK is scum along with mafia. Personally I have no idea who the SK is at this point. The vig has to kill at night, so they should just probably target anyone appearing anti-town.
True enough. My point is really just that we should never spare the SK to preserve the vig kill.

[Kat]

Here's what I don't understand: it's not to anyone's benefit---particularly any townsperson---to intentionally act suspicious, right? It can't possibly help them. So what the hell gives with Autolycus and chrisk? Do they just not care?

At this point, I don't think Autolycus is scum. I doubt that a Mafia member would continue to attract negative attention for so long after being explicitly informed that it's both annoying and suspicious. He's probably Civilian, just not a very helpful Civilian. He's determined that having fun posting in a Mafia dialect is more important than giving analysis or avoiding a lynching. And who's to say he's wrong? :D

[QUOTE=Gadarene]I think this is the most important point made so far today. Scum already know who's scum and who isn't; it's the ordinary joes out there that most benefit from additional information.[Gadarene]

And this is why Blaster Master's fake list irks me. Posting fake info doesn't help the us at all.

[Kat]

Damn lousy coding. Grrrrr....

[Menocchio]

And by "we" I mean both the voting population and the Vig.

[zuma]

We can argue the point at such time as we have a SK suspect :)

Also, I'm not willing to let Autocylus off the hook. He's yelling "I'm mafia!" far and wide. Whatever the case, he's harming whichever side he's on. He's probably going to get killed soon either by town or by vig or by SK. If he's town, he has contributed nothing but distraction and getting a townie killed off. If he's mafia, he's going to get strung up or offed soon enough.

My thoughts on him are that he's not helping the town at all. He may be mafia doing a crazy gambit whereby he distracts and throws it in our face in order to slow down real information-gathering.

He's also broken the rules by strategizing at night and editing his posts.

For now I'm going to ignore him.

[Suburban Plankton]

I haven't gone back to review the entire thread yet (14 pages?!? Oh well, I guess the lawn can wait another week to get mowed), but I have a few thoughts based on posts from the last 12 hours or so.


Blame me for being a weathervane, and I'll cop to it.I find the phrasing rather interesting here. Is the use of the word 'cop' just a coincidence, or is chrisk trying to tell us something? Right now, he's on my "suspect" list, but that's mainly based on guilt by association from being trusted by both Pleonast and Blaster Master. He didn't quite role-claim on Day 1; is he not quite role-claiming again here?

Why I like the trust/mistrust lists: it helps summarize what each poster thinks. This makes it easy for someone skimming the thread to get an idea of general thoughts. Yes, it will help the Mafia, but it helps us too. And we're the ones that need info. Makes it easier for the more casual players to make informed decisions.Pleonast seems to be alone in still wanting everyone to make their "trust/untrust" lists. And I just don't buy the "helps casual players" angle. All it's going to do for casual players is encourage them to hop on whatever bandwagon happens to be passing by at the moment. We saw on Day 1 how well that works.


Menocchio really wants the Vigilante killed. I know that he's the closest thing that we have to a confirmed citizen, but his single-mindedness of purpose lately is concerning. The odds on him being the Godfather in this game after having been the Alpha-Wolf last time seem rather staggering, but it's not impossible.


At this point I think I want to vote for Pleonast, but I'm going to hold off until I get the chance to skim over the whole thread again.

[Suburban Plankton]

NAF1138

Can we get an official vote tally? My spreadsheet is on the other computer, and I'm just feeling too lazy to go get it, and then spend half an hour updating it.

Thanks

[cowgirl]

Bah! Well, at least I get to drink all day while you guys are here working it all out. I hear they're having nachos over in that other thread.

Go Citizens! I'll be rooting for you from above.



grumble grumble ... I knew I shouldn't have made that spreadsheet ...

[MadTheSwine]

How come there were only 2 kills last night? NAF1138 ,if a Miller blocks a role player, are we told about it somehow,or is it not mentioned in anyway?
The rules state that the SK and Mafia don't have to kill at night but the VIG does have to.
I am really trying to think of a good reason for one of the factions not to kill someone,I can't,I can think of reasons but none of them make any sense. One of the pro-town power roles(Miller,Doc or GA) must have blocked one of the kills.
Naf1138 can you clarify what happens in your death announcements if a pro-town role blocks a kill?

[Kat]

Hey, cowgirl! Bring us back some nachos from the forbidden thread!

[Queuing]

On further analysis, I'd like to expand on point 3 of my recent post (post 620). Our strategy is fundamentally flawed at this time. Let's evaluate my analysis was further, that cowgirl was killed by the mafia and CaerieD was killed by the VIG/SK. From my observation, cowgirl was relatively inactive in posting yesterday and, as far as I can tell, managed to stay under EVERYONE's radar, neither on anyone's trust or distrust list. In retrospect, it's clearly more of an artifact of the speed at which the thread is moving; however, this is precisely the sort of tell I'd expect mafia to pick up on for a power roll: doctor trying to lay low, detective trying to gather some information before outing herself, or vig trying to slowly pick people off. Meanwhile, CaerieD made several posts, a few of which, at least to me, looked suspsicious, like supporting the "pretend to be a cop" idea (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8405880#post8405880) (obviously, in hindsight, she agreed because she WAS a cop), and also voted to lynch Sturmhauke originally, which, as many had pointed out, looked like a mafia bandwagon.

What's the point of all this? Worst case, which seems to be the likely one, the VIG killed our detective, and even in best case, he still killed a townie. I made a suggestion at least twice yesterday that we should not only be voting on a lynch, but we should also be discussing the nighttime target of the VIG. The VIG is stuck between a rock and a hard place because, maybe he should off the #2 vote getter, but what if he REALLY doesn't think he's mafia or SK or actually is, in fact, the #2 vote getting? Essentially, the VIG was shooting in the dark last night, and that cost us. Now that we don't have a detective, and we're several townies down, we REALLY need to start trying to take better advantage of the VIG role, because he and the doctor are the only two roles now that can help catch up. If we play our cards right and get a good lynching AND a good night target for the VIG, we can potentially make up for a bad lynching and the bad night we had.



Also, as part of my scanning to make my point above, I came across two interesting posts of CaerieD's which leads me to believe that the general sentiment of what her breadcrumb is is incorrect. One post which has been pointed out isthat she trusted Menacchio #326 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8406256#post8406256) , but in the same post she also mentioned she distrusted Autolycus (and Enfant Terrible as well, but that was obviously not the breadcrumb). Even more interesting, soon after day one started in post #261, she states that she doesn't trust Autolycus (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8405550#post8405550). That's even before we started the whole trust/mistrust list. So my question to you all is, was her breadcrumb that Menacchio is town-friendly or that Autolycus is scum? Based on the post order, I'm more inclined to believe the latter, or am I missing something?

Yes you are missing something. You were on our fair detective's mistrust list. You are scum IMO, and must die.

[MadTheSwine]

Okay, based on an idea that StarvingButStrong had in the werewolf commentary thread, I'm proposing an Open Detection System

Hypothetically, for the purpose of this post, I'm claiming that I'm a cop of some sort. Last night, I investigated Enfant Terrible and found him to be vanilla citizen

I find the phrasing rather interesting here. Is the use of the word 'cop' just a coincidence, or is chrisk trying to tell us something? Right now, he's on my "suspect" list, but that's mainly based on guilt by association from being trusted by both Pleonast and Blaster Master. He didn't quite role-claim on Day 1; is he not quite role-claiming again

Ok, as much as I thought the ODS was silly,it does appear that chrisk might be a cop.He did correctly identify Enfant Terrible as a vanilla citizen.Though he may have got lucky in that guess,I think we might want to carry justice out on someone else at this point.

[NAF1138]

How come there were only 2 kills last night? NAF1138 ,if a Miller blocks a role player, are we told about it somehow,or is it not mentioned in anyway?


What I give you is what you get. There were only 2 kills because either the miller blocked someone, the doctor saved someone, the angel saved someone, the sk or mafia chose to not kill, or two people targeted the same person. You wouldn't really want me to spoon feed you everything would you?

As far as the whole SK questions go...the end conditions for the game are that the game ends when the Mafia is all defeated or when the town cannot win. Some games have it go until there is no one left but the SK, but I think that makes it way too hard for the SK to have a shot a winning. So if the SK is alive when the end conditions are met, the SK wins.

WHO WANTS A VOTE COUNT?

(1) Autolycus (Chrisk)
(1) Blaster Master (Queuing)
(1) brewha (Fern Forest)
(5) chrisk (Rysto, FCoD, Kat, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach)
(1) Gadarene (chrisk)
(1) nesta (Sturmhauke)
(1) Pleonast (Lakai)

[Kat]

Hey! No fair! How come chrisk gets two votes?

[NAF1138]

Hey! No fair! How come chrisk gets two votes?
Good point, I didn't see that. Chisk, did you unvote and I missed it? Give me a few minutes and I will go back and figure out what I missed.

Also the first line of my last post should read, what I gave you is what you get. Which is to say, its the same as all the others. I tell you who's dead and you get a little color. Thats it.

[Fretful Porpentine]

I am really trying to think of a good reason for one of the factions not to kill someone,I can't,I can think of reasons but none of them make any sense.
I think it might make sense for the Serial Killer not to kill every night, actually, since one of his or her goals is to fly under the radar for as long as possible. Killing someone usually furthers the SK's other goal, to hasten the ending of the game, but not always, so I can see why the SK might not want to take a shot in the dark at this stage of the game.

On the other hand, it seems to me that it also makes sense for the Miller to automatically block the SK or Vigilante until we know more, since they're all taking shots in the dark, and a random death is more likely to be a townie.

[NAF1138]

Sorry, chrisk did unvote, I just missed it.
New vote count:
(1) Blaster Master (Queuing)
(1) brewha (Fern Forest)
(5) chrisk (Rysto, FCoD, Kat, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach)
(1) Gadarene (chrisk)
(1) nesta (Sturmhauke)
(1) Pleonast (Lakai)

[Gadarene]

I'm inclined to agree with Queuing that CaerieD's mistrust of Blaster Master was a breadcrumb.

Accordingly, I vote Blaster Master.

[Queuing]

I wish I'd had a chance to vote yesterday, but by the time I was done catching up the day was over. I was hoping that Day 1 would last a couple more real-time days so I could get a handle on who was who and not just cast a paranoia vote.

Fair enough however you have had time now. How about posting something useful?

In fact we have a few people who have contributed little. Brewha is another one I can think of. We need EVERYONE to post whatever idea they have, not mistrust/trust list, whatever you have, feedback people. Cowgirl may have been killed because she didn't post and was a suspected power role, we can't lose another.

As to the votes, I think we leave Chrisk alone....for now. There seems to be some doubt as to his role.

Master Blaster and Pleonast on the other hand there seems to be little doubt, or at least little expressed doubt by anyone but themselves.

Anyway, thats my last post for the day. I am off now, I may be able to post tomorrow (and read another 3 pages, sigh)

[MadTheSwine]

What I give you is what you get. There were only 2 kills because either the miller blocked someone, the doctor saved someone, the angel saved someone, the sk or mafia chose to not kill, or two people targeted the same person. You wouldn't really want me to spoon feed you everything would you?
I think one of the pro-town power roles saved someone.Again, I can't imagine a good reason for one of the scum not to kill,nor can I imagine two of them targeting the same person,considering the kills.

[Kat]

On the other hand, it seems to me that it also makes sense for the Miller to automatically block the SK or Vigilante until we know more, since they're all taking shots in the dark, and a random death is more likely to be a townie.

I don't think it works that way. I assume the Miller(s) block people (e.g. they say "I want to block Fretful Porpentine." not "I want to black the Vigilante.")

Oh, and I'll go ahead and unvote chrisk. Haven't decided on my new vote yet. Don't lynch anyone until I come back?

[Rysto]

I'm wondering if the Doc protected Autolycus. I expect the SK or the Vig to do him last night, and I can't have been the only person to have expected that. Perhaps the Doc trusted him enough to protect him, as he seemed the most likely to be killed by somebody.

It's also possible that the SK or Vig took Blaster Master's advice and went after CaerieD, while the Mafia also tried to kill her.

[MadTheSwine]

I think it might make sense for the Serial Killer not to kill every night, actually, since one of his or her goals is to fly under the radar for as long as possible. Killing someone usually furthers the SK's other goal, to hasten the ending of the game, but not always, so I can see why the SK might not want to take a shot in the dark at this stage of the game.

On the other hand, it seems to me that it also makes sense for the Miller to automatically block the SK or Vigilante until we know more, since they're all taking shots in the dark, and a random death is more likely to be a townie.


The Millers have to give a name, not a role.They could just block Mafia everynight otherwise.

[Fretful Porpentine]

The Millers have to give a name, not a role.They could just block Mafia everynight otherwise.
Ah, got it. I thought they blocked roles (but could not block the Mafia, unless they were down to one Mafia member, because it had to be an individual rather than a group). I'm still working out the finer points of the rules here...

[zuma]

Yes you are missing something. You were on our fair detective's mistrust list. You are scum IMO, and must die.

Huh? Are you disputing the fact that Menocchio was her investigation?

[hocow]

Oh my, where do I begin?

1. Queuing voted for Blaster Master based on his comments regarding who each role should kill that night, specifically the SK. That made me suspicious as well. In fact I wonder if Blaster Master himself might be the SK? CaerieD was forthcoming about her mistrust of him, he suggested that she be killed that night, and then *bam* no more detective. Also, he was very informative on day 1, mimicking JSexton in the first game, who was town. Could he perhaps be employing the same strategy in hopes of throwing us off his scent?

2. As far as which breadcrumb to follow from our dearly departed detective, I will follow her trust of Mennochio. She investigated someone that night and, again following the same logic, it seems reasonable to investigate the alpha from the last game as there may be some residual vibes from that game that may flow into the judgment of this game. (I realize I'm using the other game for reference points, but many others have as well. Besides we are human and even in other threads, when I see certain posters I think "Werewolf! Lynch! :) YMMV)

3. Something I wanted to say on day 1 but missed the deadline: Many have stated that it is remarkable that sturmhawke is still breathing because of his tactics in the previous thread. This is not an attack in any way, but could those of yo that subscribe to this theory explain it? He was a good player, but I thought it was obvious he was the seer way before his roleclaim. Again, no offense intended, I'm just curious.

4. In post #437, Queuing is fiercely defending chrisk, and saying that he should give us his "investigations" daily so we have something to work with. I took chrisk's hypothetical claim, as just that: hypothetical. He may or may not be a cop, but I took it to mean that everyone should do this to confuse mafia and leave breadcrumbs for when death ensues. However, if he is not a cop and continues to post "facts" it will hurt the townies that may believe him, if he posts inaccurately.

5. As far as trust lists go, I think in theory they are a good idea, but may be hard to use practically in game play. In essence, it gives us something to work with only after someone has been positively identified. Until then they really give us little to work without any proof.

6. This is specifically for Malacandra: Why are you so suspicious of me? You pointed it out in 2 seperate posts, but without anything to back it up. Could you please tell me why you FOS is pointed my way so that I may address any issues?

[zuma]

I'm inclined to agree with Queuing that CaerieD's mistrust of Blaster Master was a breadcrumb.

Accordingly, I vote Blaster Master.

This is crazy. Blaster Master has his own issues, but our cop breadcrumbed Menocchio.

[zuma]

Vote : Queuing

[MonkeyMensch]

OK. I was going to post and then catch up but catching up seemed pretty tolerable.

With respect to the night deaths I'd say there was either a Doc-BlokTM, an overlapping of targets, or the SK held fire. Here's the mathiness: If here there be Millers (and I now think there are, given that NAF keeps talking about them) their chances of blocking the Mafia hit, if they both tried to at this point in the game, are about 6%. That's ballpark 30% (choosing Mafia correctly) times 10% (having the block work) times both Millers giving it a shot. I know that the probabilities aren't strictly additive but with low probs it's a good approximation. Factor in that the Millers received advice to perhaps hold their blocking for the moment and that 6% shrinks even more.

I think, if I've done the math correctly, there is currently a 9% chance of an overlap in targets. That's not too likely but significant.

As for the Doc-Blok it's about as likely. Assuming there were 3 separate targets submitted then it's about 9% (3/32) that the Doc successfully protected someone. Again, not too likely but significant.

As for the SK I can't see their survival in a Mafia-rich endgame, and on preview NAF's post makes it sound like this is the case, and so without a decent scum-tell to go on simply held fire for the time being. This could be wishful thinking but we might get a lower body count for a night or two. This event (holding fire) can't be assigned a probability since it only is dependent on the SK's strategy but I think it's likely if the SK doesn't want to end up surrounded by Mafiosi at games end. After all the SK shows up on the citizen list that the Mafia has.

As for lists of trust/distrust I'm going personnally with just lists of distrusts. If my guesses are accurate then then I'm a target. But at the same time my getting whacked just validates my list. On the other hand if my guesses are inaccurate the Mafia might want to let me blather on, but might want to whack me to give the appearance of accurate guesses being muffled. The upshot is that good suspect lists put the Mafia in a bit of a quandary and isn't, therefore terribly dangerous. It's what I'm going to do at any rate.

The side benefit is that looking at the lists in toto can give a sort of Venn diagram of consensus and help filter out the Mafia induced noise.

So I'm FOSing in order chrisk, brewha (on his weak accusation of myself that Malacandra picked up on as well), and aguecheek for #393 where he accuses sturmhauke on nothing more than last game performance.

Finally, a question for NAF: is there going to be any indication given when the last Mafioso is killed, in case the SK is still alive?

[Blaster Master]

I'm inclined to agree with Queuing that CaerieD's mistrust of Blaster Master was a breadcrumb.

Accordingly, I vote Blaster Master.

This is complete hogwash. She mistrusted me for reasons other than her investigation, namely that she thought I was "too gung-ho"; I think we've come to a concensus that Menocchio was her investigation.

[Gadarene]

I stand by my vote.

[NAF1138]

Finally, a question for NAF: is there going to be any indication given when the last Mafioso is killed, in case the SK is still alive?

Yes, when the last mafia is killed, the game will end. If you haven't gotten the SK by then, the SK wins.

[Hockey Monkey]

This is complete hogwash. She mistrusted me for reasons other than her investigation, namely that she thought I was "too gung-ho"; I think we've come to a concensus that Menocchio was her investigation.

I can assure you a concensus has not been reached.

[Lakai]

I was wondering if there could be 10 mafia members when it only takes 10 votes to lynch someone? There has to be less than 10 right?

Are posts outside of this thread admissible as evidence of a posters behavior?

If so, chrisk's behavior after posting the ODS seems dumbed down from his usual posts at SDMB. While I still would like to vote from the list that voted for Enfant (Pleonast specifically), I wouldn't mind seeing chrisk get lynched.


Unvote Pleonast. Vote chrisk.

[MonkeyMensch]

And lest the day slip by without me getting a vote in, vote aguecheek.

[MonkeyMensch]

Sheesh, I can't even read my own list right!

I don't want to bandwagon chrisk without a little more discussion so my vote should be brewha.

[Rysto]

Unvote chrisk. I'm still convinced that he's scum, but I don't want to see anybody speed-lynched here. We can always vote for chrisk at any time -- there's no rush.

[Fretful Porpentine]

I'm going to cast a vote to lynch FlyingCowOfDoom because she seems to have a pattern of hopping onto incipient bandwagons (Autolycus, the late lamented Enfant Terrible, and now chrisk).

[Fern Forest]

MonkeyMensch, you've got two votes now, you probably want to go ahead and put your unvote of aguecheek in red if that's what you meant to do.

[Fern Forest]

Oh, we do have a forbidden thread. I thought the nacho talk was just that.

*Looks at the camera and pulls earlobe*

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

I'm going to cast a vote to lynch FlyingCowOfDoom because she seems to have a pattern of hopping onto incipient bandwagons (Autolycus, the late lamented Enfant Terrible, and now chrisk).First of all, I'm a guy.

Second of all, I was the second vote for Autolycus...and let's be honest, he brought a lot of attention to himself. Yeah, I jumped on the Enfant Terrible bandwagon, but that was an honest mistake that several of us made.

As far as chrisk goes, I theorized about him on the first day and I'm simply following up on that line of reasoning. I was the second person to vote for him, so while I may have helped to start the bandwagon rolling, I certainly didn't just jump on. At any rate, I still belive he's suspicious, and my vote stands.

--FCOD

[MonkeyMensch]

Yes, thank you FernForest: unvote chrisk.

[MonkeyMensch]

I am so tired. Cancel that last post. I need food and coffee...

That should read unvote aquecheek, not chrisk.

Arghhhhh. No editing sucketh.

[Hockey Monkey]

If I were having to lay breadcrumbs, I don't think I would throw down the entire loaf of bread ala Trust: Menocchio. Blaster Master is the crumb we should be following.

Just in case I don't get to check in again before the lynching: knot the noose for Blaster Master.

[Kat]

Going with my gut now and voting Pleonast. I'm suspicious of the continued pressing for trust lists. Taking into account Pleonast's own "hypothetical" list and Blaster Master's fake one, it makes it too easy to cast suspicion in a certain direction, without giving reasons. The "casual player" that it's supposedly intended for would be more helped by an analysis of why someone should be trusted or mistrusted. A simple list of names could too easily be a coded message of who the Mafia should vote for now, and perhaps sway non-Mafia members who see someone being "trusted" or "mistrusted" by so many other players.

[Fern Forest]

Man, this day is wide open. I believe this is how things look.

(3) Blaster Master (Queuing, Gadarene, pimaspinner)
(2) brewha (Fern Forest, MonkeyMensh)
(4) chrisk (FCoD, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, Lakai)
(1) FlyingCowOfDoom (Fretful Porpentine)
(1) Gadarene (chrisk)
(1) nesta (Sturmhauke)
(1) Queuing (Zuma)
(1) Pleonast (Kat)

Blaster Master seems a little too helpful to be scum. And is second in posts only to NAF1138.
brewha I've only got a slight suspicion. I'd like to call the witness to the stand. Where were you last night?
chrisk is still reeling from that idea on the first day
FCOD I still don't see
Gadarene handled my accusation really well.
nesta I've going to have to read up on.
Queuing seems to have got on a lot of bad sides but with few willing to pull the trigger. Their action is more suspicious to me then Q's.
Pleonast I could vote for.

[Fern Forest]

Well there's not much to go on, that's how I got done so fast. I'm leaning towards town but I'd like nesta to cast a vote and explain the reasoning.

If you please.

[sturmhauke]

I think the trust/mistrusts lists can be a useful tool, but only if people actually give reasons for each name on the list. An uncommented list doesn't give any real information about the player posting it, and information is our only resource here.

[Rysto]

I think the trust/mistrusts lists can be a useful tool, but only if people actually give reasons for each name on the list.
The original purpose of the trust/mistrust lists was to give the Cops a channel to give out their findings. Forcing people to justify their trust/mistrust lists completely defeats the point -- what's a Cop supposed to say? The problem is magnified if their read goes against the general feeling. I'm actually not opposed to people saying who they feel is trustworthy and who they distrust, but I want to make it very clear to Cops that this isn't the best way to get their findings out, because accurate yet unsubstantiated trusts or mistrusts will scream "COP" to the Mafia.

By all means, the Cops should be leaving breadcrumbs. But for heaven's sake, be subtle about it. Explicit "trust/mistrust" lists aren't subtle.

[Blaster Master]

The Vig lacks the accountability and quality control of the lynchings. They can't ask for feedback on who to target. They don't allow for the target to role-claim or defend their actions. They just kill. They're a liability and should be stopped.

I disagree with this assertion, this is the point of my suggestion to name a definitive VIG nighttime target, so that the person who IS targetted gets a chance to defend himself during the day and it isn't so much a surprise like it was last night (whichever of the two targets the VIG killed). Here's a few scenarios of how the SK/VIG play out, in order of what I think is best for us at this point.

VIG and SK alive: 1 lynch (pro-town), 1 mafia (anti-town), 1 SK (50/50), and 1 VIG (pro-town). That's 2.5-1.5 in favor of the town, that puts us up one kill per day.

VIG kills SK: 1 lynch, 1 mafia, +1 confirmed townie. That puts us even on kills with the mafia.

SK dead by lynch or mafia: 1 lynch, 1 mafia, no confirmed townie. Obviously, slightly worse than the previous case.

VIG dead, SK alive: 1 lynch, 1 mafia, 1 SK (almost certainly switches sides). Probably puts us at a HUGE disadvantage.


At this point, the SK is just as much a threat to both the town and mafia, so it makes no sense to target him with our lynchings. Unless the SK is already COMPLETELY favoring the mafia, the first case is CLEARLY to our advantage at this point. Chances are, the SK will be taken out by accident with either a lynch, mafia hit, or VIG kill, so we shouldn't worry about getting him until at least mid-game.

[brewha]

Holy crap! 2 Votes! Sorry for the little contribution. I was out of town the last couple of days (just away from the comp actually, but trying to stay in character). I just got my eyes LASIK'd and I wasn't supposed to be on the comp for a couple of days. I haven't really read anything since pg 12, I just skimmed thru and saw that I was under suspicion.

I assure you I am merely a vanilla townie. I had a theory that the first person to post after someone's death may be mafia since they would like to seem concerned. I called MonkeyM on it and he didn't seem to defend himself very well.

I'll contribute more after I get a chance to catch up on the reading. Hopefully I'll survive that long.

[Blaster Master]

I can assure you a concensus has not been reached.

Then, pimaspinner, I expect you can provide good reasoning why her breadcrumb is more likely to be that I SHOULDN'T be trusted than that Menocchio should be? If not, it looks VERY suspicious to me that both you and Gadarene are voting for me for the same unsubstantiable reason.

[Fretful Porpentine]

First of all, I'm a guy.
Oops, sorry, I guess I tend to think of cows as female most of the time :)

And hmm, your defense makes a lot of sense; I'm willing to concede that there are plausible reasons to suspect chrisk, and although I think Autolycus is probably just playing the fool, I can see why you'd vote for him. On the other hand, Autolycus and chrisk were both obvious candidates for a bandwagon, even with only one official vote cast, so a reasonably alert Mafia member might jump on in time to grab the oh-so-not-suspicious second vote instead of the oh-so-suspicious third one...

... Will have to think some more.

[MonkeyMensch]

Holy crap! 2 Votes! Sorry for the little contribution. I was out of town the last couple of days (just away from the comp actually, but trying to stay in character). I just got my eyes LASIK'd and I wasn't supposed to be on the comp for a couple of days. I haven't really read anything since pg 12, I just skimmed thru and saw that I was under suspicion.

I assure you I am merely a vanilla townie. I had a theory that the first person to post after someone's death may be mafia since they would like to seem concerned. I called MonkeyM on it and he didn't seem to defend himself very well.

I'll contribute more after I get a chance to catch up on the reading. Hopefully I'll survive that long.
What I saw was, I think, 3 or 4 reasons to suspect me coming from the fact I said, "::sniff::", instead of "we hardly knew ye", or "::raises drink to fallen comrades::." Seemed like a weak basis.

[Hockey Monkey]

Then, pimaspinner, I expect you can provide good reasoning why her breadcrumb is more likely to be that I SHOULDN'T be trusted than that Menocchio should be? If not, it looks VERY suspicious to me that both you and Gadarene are voting for me for the same unsubstantiable reason.

I haven't said that Menocchio should be trusted, just that a crumb is a little piece of information, not the whole freakin' loaf. I don't really have any one right now that I would consider trusted, except the dead. I have suspicions about lots of you's guys though. I voted for you based on your lame attempt at explaining yourself in post #620 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8414547#post8414547) and this complete gibberish in post #637 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8414783#post8414783).

[Blaster Master]

I haven't said that Menocchio should be trusted, just that a crumb is a little piece of information, not the whole freakin' loaf. I don't really have any one right now that I would consider trusted, except the dead. I have suspicions about lots of you's guys though. I voted for you based on your lame attempt at explaining yourself in post #620 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8414547#post8414547) and this complete gibberish in post #637 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8414783#post8414783).
Wow, lots of backpedalling on your part. One night for the detective equals 1 piece of solid information, thus her breadcrumb was either to trust one person, or to not trust someone else. You said:
If I were having to lay breadcrumbs, I don't think I would throw down the entire loaf of bread ala Trust: Menocchio. Blaster Master is the crumb we should be following.
This to me means you disagree with the sentiment that Menocchio should be trusted is the breadcrumb. I ask you to justify, because I wasn't the only person on her mistrust list, so was Autolycus. In fact, I wasn't even ON her initial trust/mistrust list. Instead, you dodge my question. So, I ask you again. Justify why her breadcrumb must have been that I should not be trusted.

[hocow]

I voted for you based on your lame attempt at explaining yourself in post #620 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8414547#post8414547) and this complete gibberish in post #637 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8414783#post8414783).

Having looking at those posts more, I think I am fully more convinced that Blaster Master may be the SK. In #620 he again assures us that if he were the VIG or SK he would have gone after CaerieD based on her "suspicious" posting.

Follow that up with the contents of #637. He lays out the possible scenario that cowgirl was killed by mafia and CaerieD was killed by the VIG in the previous night. While this is entirely possible, he says that this is the most likely scenario. I don't understand how someone could be so certain of that if he himself was not one of those roles. I think it would make sense for the SK to kill every night seeing as how we are all enemies in his eyes, and he knows that any death that isn't his serves to help him win.

I think I'm going to go ahead and vote Blaster Master.

[Blaster Master]

Having looking at those posts more, I think I am fully more convinced that Blaster Master may be the SK. In #620 he again assures us that if he were the VIG or SK he would have gone after CaerieD based on her "suspicious" posting.

Follow that up with the contents of #637. He lays out the possible scenario that cowgirl was killed by mafia and CaerieD was killed by the VIG in the previous night. While this is entirely possible, he says that this is the most likely scenario. I don't understand how someone could be so certain of that if he himself was not one of those roles. I think it would make sense for the SK to kill every night seeing as how we are all enemies in his eyes, and he knows that any death that isn't his serves to help him win.

I think I'm going to go ahead and vote Blaster Master.

If you dispute my logic on who the SK and VIG should have targetted, feel free to attack my logic. In fact, you don't, because you can't. Even if you could, your response is completely illogical. If I were in fact the SK, it makes ZERO sense to lynch me, because then you deprive the VIG of an opportunity to clear his name at night by killing me instead. You also ignore the possibility that I could, in fact, be the VIG, and am certain because I pulled the trigger myself. If that were the case, it makes even less sense to lynch me because the VIG is pro-town.

Sounds like a lot of jumping on the bandwagon to me along with Gadarene and pimaspinner, with poor logic. Except, I think they're mafia, but I don't think you are. I've had you pinned as the SK since yesterday, and now you're jumping on the bandwagon to lynch me because you think I'm the VIG, which is exactly why you ignored the possibility above to try to convince more of the rest of us that I'm actually the SK and get the town to lynch your competition for you.

[Fretful Porpentine]

Having looking at those posts more, I think I am fully more convinced that Blaster Master may be the SK. In #620 he again assures us that if he were the VIG or SK he would have gone after CaerieD based on her "suspicious" posting.

Follow that up with the contents of #637. He lays out the possible scenario that cowgirl was killed by mafia and CaerieD was killed by the VIG in the previous night. While this is entirely possible, he says that this is the most likely scenario. I don't understand how someone could be so certain of that if he himself was not one of those roles.
Wait, how does that make him the Serial Killer, then? By that line of reasoning, wouldn't he pretty much have to be either Mafia or Vigilante? (Though really, since we have two deaths and three possible killers, I don't see how anybody can be certain who killed the other person even if they had targeted one of the victims for death. If, hypothetically, BlasterMaster were the Vigilante and he had targeted CaerieD, it's still entirely possible that the Mafia had also voted to kill her and the SK is responsible for cowgirl's death, or it could be the other way around.)

[Hockey Monkey]

Wow, lots of backpedalling on your part. One night for the detective equals 1 piece of solid information, thus her breadcrumb was either to trust one person, or to not trust someone else. You said:

This to me means you disagree with the sentiment that Menocchio should be trusted is the breadcrumb. I ask you to justify, because I wasn't the only person on her mistrust list, so was Autolycus. In fact, I wasn't even ON her initial trust/mistrust list. Instead, you dodge my question. So, I ask you again. Justify why her breadcrumb must have been that I should not be trusted.

Backpedalling? My point is that I don't think trust Menocchio was her crumb. I pretty much explained that already with the loaf vs crumb theory. Distrusting Autolycus could have been the crumb instead of you. Blatantly stating to trust Menocchio wasn't a subtle hint. I don't know who she investigated, but she could have just picked a name to put on her trust list to throw suspicion off the crumb she was leaving, in which case, she should have put a couple more names on there. I could very well be reading to much into that, as well as everything else being posted. Now if you'll excuse me, my head hurts now. :p

[Hockey Monkey]

And all this talk about breadcrumbs is making me hungry.

[Fern Forest]

I think the SK should continue to work with the town. The SK has two win scenarios. Either he survives and either the mafia get 50% of the surviving township or all the mafia are dead.

The SK hides among the townies. If you'll look at the list I made in post 646 on what the rest of the game would look like at random we're destined to pick up a few mafia kills. And the mafia don't pick up a majority until we're down to 4 players. Two or three of which are mafia and the rest the town the SK will have to hide within. Does the SK feel confident that he can outlast the other 20 townies? Even if there are more people if the mafia get the win that's still a huge chance.

Whereas if the SK plays for a town victory he is working for more townies to survive longer. The more townies there are later in the game the better he can hide and the better chance he has of surviving the game.

[Aguecheek]

Jeezus. I've been reading this for the past 2 hours. Just reading, for the luvva gawd. Now...a quick bow of the head and moment of silence for cowgirl and CaerieD.

I haven't been able to go back and make such incredibly detailed notes as some of you have. A quick read has come up with this: CaerieD twice stated she was suspicious of Autolycus. She also stated that she was suspicious of Blaster Master. She trusted Menocchio and voted for sturmhauke, who was targeted by many of us (myself included) for surviving. I'm guessing she investigated Auto, Blaster or Mennochio.

Blaster Master encouraged the SK or the Vig to take out CaerieD.

And Autolycus, for what it's worth, has twice mentioned (maybe 3x? I can't remember) that he's suspicious of Blaster Master...although it was tucked away in there. What that could mean, I've no idea.

And that's all I'm saying at this point. Hopefully there's some connection there - my plan is to now look more closely at what's been said by Autolycus and Blaster Master.

[Suburban Plankton]

There are two names at the top of my list right now. They are Blaster Master and Pleonast.

Blaster Master has posted more than any other player in this thread. He has given us theories, statistics, accusations, refutations...it's so much that it's almost too much to keep up with. It's as if he's trying to bury us with information in order to confuse us.

Pleonast was all over the place on Day 1 with his "trust/distrust" lists. After it was pointed out that his lists were "inconsistent" and suspicion began to fall on him he has practically disappeared, making only a single post on Day 2. Laying low, perhaps?

I think that I should be more suspicious of Blaster Master, but my gut tells me to

vote Pleonast.

[MadTheSwine]

Backpedalling? My point is that I don't think trust Menocchio was her crumb. I pretty much explained that already with the loaf vs crumb theory. Distrusting Autolycus could have been the crumb instead of you. Blatantly stating to trust Menocchio wasn't a subtle hint. I don't know who she investigated, but she could have just picked a name to put on her trust list to throw suspicion off the crumb she was leaving, in which case, she should have put a couple more names on there. I could very well be reading to much into that, as well as everything else being posted. Now if you'll excuse me, my head hurts now. :p

I can't see any reason why she would have trusted Menocchio unless he was who she investigated.

[Fern Forest]

CaerieD could have handled her crumb many ways. Hold it early or wait till the conversation heats up and dropping it might have a bigger effect. It could possible be either bad for Autolycus or Blaster Master or good for Menocchio. What's funny is even they can't tell if they were actually investigated since the late Detective may have just guessed right in each case.

Also our Beat Cop will have had two nights to work. If they've investigated someone twice they may have a really good idea that someone either is or is not working on the side of all that is good. We might want to keep an eye out for those crumbs as well.

You know, I think pimaspinner and Blaster Master may be on opposite sides of the aisle. Tell me pimaspinner, do you think that Blaster Master may have been her crumb in post 748? Seeing if she could stop a bandwagon she didn't believe in? Seems kinda late for a Det. that had posted more then a few times by then and a bandwagon that had already reached 9 votes.

unvote brewha I'm thinking in another direction now.

[MadTheSwine]

Originally Posted by MadTheSwine
hocow-Dnooman and I decided to eat her.





I am strangely turned on by that post.

Now ya know I ain't Italian :p

[Fern Forest]

I can't see any reason why she would have trusted Menocchio unless he was who she investigated.
Well post 318 he comes off as very confident and saying if he were scum what he would do. She may have thought his reasoning strong and was simply agreeing with him. Menocchio voted for sturmhauke and later so did she.

I don't know anything about CaerieD to say how she would have revealed the info.

[Suburban Plankton]

Also our Beat Cop will have had two nights to work. If they've investigated someone twice they may have a really good idea that someone either is or is not working on the side of all that is good. We might want to keep an eye out for those crumbs as well.
As I was just reviewing the voting histories, I noticed that Zuma voted for Queueing on both Day 1 and Day 2. It occurred to me that he might be a Cop, who had followed up a Night 1 investigation on Night 2, with the same result.

Further investigation showed that there was only one other person who had cast votes for the same player on both Days. That person was Menocchio. His target on both Days? Queueing

Of course, Menocchio later retracted his Day 2 vote, but still, I thought it interesting...

[MadTheSwine]

There are two names at the top of my list right now. They are Blaster Master and Pleonast.

Blaster Master has posted more than any other player in this thread. He has given us theories, statistics, accusations, refutations...it's so much that it's almost too much to keep up with. It's as if he's trying to bury us with information in order to confuse us.

Pleonast was all over the place on Day 1 with his "trust/distrust" lists. After it was pointed out that his lists were "inconsistent" and suspicion began to fall on him he has practically disappeared, making only a single post on Day 2. Laying low, perhaps?

I think that I should be more suspicious of Blaster Master, but my gut tells me to

vote Pleonast.

I have to agree about Pleonast's lists. Vote Pleonast.

[NAF1138]

I am going to be going out for several hours. So how about a vote count before I leave?

(3) Blaster Master- (Queuing,Gadarene,hocow)
(1) brewha - MonkeyMench
(4) chrisk - (Lakai,Pygmy Rugger,ARizonaTeach,FCoD)
(1) Flying Cow of Doom - (Fretful Porpentine)
(1) Gadarene - (chrisk)
(1) nesta - (sturmhauke)
(1) pimaspinner - (Blaster Master)
(3) Pleonast - (Lakai,Kat,MadTheSwine)
(1) Queuing - (Zuma)
(1) Suburban Plankton - (Pleonast)


Also, chrisk has decided to sub out of the game. If anyone wants to take his place (non current players only, former players welcome) let me know. His role goes on a first come first served basis. PM or email me.

[Fern Forest]

All right, I'll make it a 3 way tie. Lynch Pleonast

You missed pimaspinner's vote in post 712.
(4) Blaster Master (Queuing, Gadarene, pimaspinner, hocow)
(1) brewha (MonkeyMensh)
(4) chrisk (FCoD, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, Lakai)
(1) FlyingCowOfDoom (Fretful Porpentine)
(1) Gadarene (chrisk)
(1) nesta (Sturmhauke)
(1) Queuing (Zuma)
(4) Pleonast (Kat, Suburan Plankton, MadTheSwine, Fern Forest)

We are now 26 hours into our 2nd day. We have nearly 4 days left of deliberation. Plenty of time for you three to find a way to defend yourselves.

[MadTheSwine]

Sub Plank has voted for Pleonast.

[MadTheSwine]

The vote counts are not accurate..can we have a recap?

[StarvingButStrong]

Wow. I've spent at least four hours today reading this thread. So far I've come to one firm conclusion: Blaster Master sure does post a lot. :dubious:

A couple of his posts make me suspicious, otoh, I'm suspicious of most of the people who have voted for him, and isn't the enemy of my enemy a friend?

So I'm going to vote queuing.

(This is kind of tentative and likely to change.)

[MadTheSwine]

Know chrisk has subbed out...whaddya all think of that?

[Fern Forest]

Know chrisk has subbed out...whaddya all think of that?
I hope it's because he hasn't got the time to keep up with the thread and not that he's a townie who was in danger of being lynched and didn't think he was going to be able to talk himself out of it. If it's the latter it's annoying.

Hopefully who ever subs can get up to speed. Lots of reading to read.

[MadTheSwine]

We are now 26 hours into our 2nd day. We have nearly 4 days left of deliberation. Plenty of time for you three to find a way to defend yourselves.

These 26 hour days are killing me.

[Fern Forest]

These 26 hour days are killing me.
I got bad news for you, we only just had breakfast.

I PM'd JSexton to see about subbing.

[MadTheSwine]

I hope it's because he hasn't got the time to keep up with the thread and not that he's a townie who was in danger of being lynched and didn't think he was going to be able to talk himself out of it. If it's the latter it's annoying.

Hopefully who ever subs can get up to speed. Lots of reading to read.

Sadly,it seems to be the latter. :mad:

Should help us out though,mebbe a strategic move on his part?

[Aguecheek]

Sadly,it seems to be the latter. :mad:I do not want to start anything and I'm not trying to imply anything...but could you elaborate on how you came to that conclusion, or is it just from what he's posted here? It seems that way, but I'm just curious.

I agree on :mad: if it's the latter.

[Rysto]

Based on this:

I'm not intentionally acting suspicious! Maybe I really can't help it, I... I...


I guess I've been taking this stuff way too seriously ever since something went a way I didn't expect it to. This is just a game, and it really isn't healthy for me to be getting so spun over it...

I'm really, really, really tempted to drop out of the game, not show my username for months in MPSIMS or IMHO for months, maybe the whole board, because I feel really foolish over how badly things have gone - but what could someone else EVER manage to do stepping into my shoes at this point? I mean, REALLY??

(Runs off into a corner, hyperventilating.)

I'd say he bowed out due to the pressure. Yeesh.