Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!) [Archive] - Page 4

nesta

03-31-2007, 08:32 PM

I have a bad feeling about the Blaster Master bandwagon that’s starting up. I’m still undecided about him, but I haven’t seen a really good reason to vote for him yet.

I don’t like the way Queuing has been pushing for Blaster Master all day. His reasoning:
Post 679 ( http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415358&postcount=679) to Blaster Master
Yes you are missing something. You were on our fair detective's mistrust list. You are scum IMO, and must die.
I don’t like this logic. Menocchio was the obvious breadcrumb, and it’s why CaerieD was killed. Queuing would have us distrust the only breadcrumb the Detective was able to leave, and at the same time start up a bandwagon and maybe lynch a civilian.

Reviewing Queuing’s posts from yesterday I see that he defended chrisk:
Post 304 ( http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405976&postcount=304)
A brave move by Chrisk. My feelings are we strike both Chrisk and Enfant Terrible of the list of people to kill at the moment.
And then lists Chrisk as trusted:
Post 327 ( http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406283&postcount=327)
Trust: Pleonast, Chrisk
He continues defending chrisk today in post 687 ( http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415390&postcount=687).

I still think chrisk is scum, even more so since he decided to leave after getting called out. I think he figured it was game over for him since he had no solid defense, so why keep playing. If chrisk is scum, Queuing’s defense of him is rather suspicious all by itself.

Vote Queuing.

On preview, I see StarvingButStrong has the same idea about Queuing.

MadTheSwine

03-31-2007, 08:33 PM

I do not want to start anything and I'm not trying to imply anything...but could you elaborate on how you came to that conclusion, or is it just from what he's posted here? It seems that way, but I'm just curious.

I agree on :mad: if it's the latter.

It is absolutely on what he posted here! I have no other reference,he just seemed to give up.

Which leads me to think he is town.

Suburban Plankton

03-31-2007, 08:38 PM

I have the vote counts as follows:

Blaster Master - 4 (Gadarene, hocow, pimaspinner, Queueing)
chrisk - 4 (Arizona Teach, Flying Cow Of Doom, Lakai, Pygmy Runner)
Pleonast - 4 (Fern Forest, Kat, MadTheSwine, Suburban Plankton)
Queueing - 2 (StarvingButStrong, zuma)
brewha - 1 (MonkeyMensch)
Flying Cow Of Doom - 1 (Fretful Porcupine)
Gadarene - 1 (chrisk)
nesta - 1 (sturmhauke)

NAF1138 seems to have counted my vote for Pleonast backwards, and done the same with pimaspinner's vote against Blaster Master.

Suburban Plankton

03-31-2007, 08:43 PM

Fern Forest

03-31-2007, 08:46 PM

It really bugs me that chrisk is subbing out. Unless something happened to him IRL that would prevent him from playing (and obviously I hope nothing like that happened), it's LAME. It's not like someone will just step into his shoes and the game will continue the way it would have, because the new person will think differently. Not only that, but how can we know that the replacement hasn't been in the Forbidden Thread?
Well we also have the option of a game suicide. But I would rather not, hopefully JSexton who offered to sub long ago has resisted the lure of the forbidden thread in anticipation of this.

Suburban Plankton

03-31-2007, 08:58 PM

Well we also have the option of a game suicide. But I would rather not, hopefully JSexton who offered to sub long ago has resisted the lure of the forbidden thread in anticipation of this.
He hasn't posted in it.

Aguecheek

03-31-2007, 08:58 PM

It is absolutely on what he posted here! I have no other reference,he just seemed to give up.Thanks, and to Rysto and FlyingCowOfDoom as well. I'd seen the post, but was wondering if I'd missed an official "I'm outta here" somewhere.

Hrmph.

MadTheSwine

03-31-2007, 09:07 PM

Fern Forest

03-31-2007, 09:16 PM

As an observer in the last game I read that forbidden thread and there was strategizing but I can't recall being told anything outright. Menocchio was very coy about who the wolves were and what their plans were. But we'll see.

Shame. But really people you are going to get lynched. If you play this game more then a few times it will happen. Your job is to post enough helpful stuff so that when you get killed and we finally know who you truely were we can now look at your posts find understanding. ... Damn, I wanted to work in a Moody Blues quote there but can't seem to fit it in.

Especially in this game since we've lost our detective and I'm not to sure how effective the beat cops will be. Of course it's far far better if we kill mafia everytime but that ain't gonna happen. Make yourselves valuable even when you die.

Fretful Porpentine

03-31-2007, 09:26 PM

Upon consideration, I'm going to unvote FlyingCowOfDoom, since I was playing a hunch that doesn't seem to have all that much evidence behind it. I cast my vote for Pleonast instead, admittedly also on a hunch, but I do find the wildly shifting trust-lists suspicious.

I'm going to be out of town with only sporadic Internet access over the next few days, by the way; I'll try to check in on this thread when I can, but I don't know how often that will be, so don't be surprised if it takes me a while to react to new developments.

kivvik

03-31-2007, 09:26 PM

Blaster still getting blasted, not seen much from Pleonast , and now chrisk has abandoned ship for whatever reason.

I will tentatively accept the idea of Menocchio as the breadcrumb from our departed Detective, although we have no real way of knowing if that's true or not without any insight into how CaerieD organized her list. It might have been a simple mistake, it might not. If I recall correctly, she and chrisk were the only people to place a single person on their trusted list (Enfant Terrible being chrisk's choice, and later found to be innocent the hard way).

Of course, we've seen the trouble that the lists have caused from Blaster Master and a bit from Pleonast.

As the day needs to be long, I will not vote for either of those two so that we are that much further from a sudden bandwagon lynching.

But so that I actually have a vote this time around, I will vote Queueing .

I will admit to being conflicted on the issue, but he has a thing for going after Menocchio the Breadcrumb , and has been a staunch defender of the late chrisk. He did propose that we strike Enfant Terrible from the lynch list, but that does not necessarily mean anything. Could have been cover. Yet, could be misguided trust that turned out correct. Several people have had inaccurate gut feelings so far. But I trust that we will have plenty of time for defenses to be given, and as the vote is now likely split very heavily, a swift lynching is much harder. Unless the replacement player messes up severely. I pity the poor soul who has to actually go back and read all 1.8 million posts with an eye towards getting a feel for each player.

Menocchio

03-31-2007, 09:27 PM

I'm at a bit of a loss at this point.

I was completely sure that chrisk was scum, but his caving seems more consistent with a townie that believes he has completely screwed over his town than with scum. I kinda felt the same way when I was lynched last game.

I'm suspicious of those casting doubts on CaerieD's breadcrumb. The people she doubted were favorites for scum yesterday, it's more likely that she'd hit town on her first day swinging blindly, and that she'd pick last game's scum to investigate first. Also, I was singled out as trsutworthy, when really I hadn't done all that much yet. In fact, I was agreeing with Queuing. Why would I make the cut and not Queuing unless she investigated me?

Blaster Master

03-31-2007, 09:29 PM

Wow. I've spent at least four hours today reading this thread. So far I've come to one firm conclusion: Blaster Master sure does post a lot. :dubious: Procrastination... much more fun than working on my term projects and/or work. Either of which is what I'm supposed to be doing. :DA couple of his posts make me suspicious, otoh, I'm suspicious of most of the people who have voted for him, and isn't the enemy of my enemy a friend?

So I'm going to vote queuing.

(This is kind of tentative and likely to change.)

As has been said, posting a lot can a detriment to me because it looks like I'm potentially either covering myself up or, if I were lying, I would eventually confuse my lies. That said, being the most post-happy of us in this thread, if I were scum, then I should have the most tells of anyone else, and yet the best reasoning anyone has come up with to vote to lynch me is that CaerieD didn't trust me, despite that pretty much everyone who hasn't voted to lynch me agrees her breadcrumb was most likely a trust vote in favor of Menocchio and not a distrust vote for me or Autolycus.

Here's what I see as far as suspicious behavior from those who voted for me:

Gadarene, yesterday jumped from the Autolycus bandwagon to the Enfant Terrible bandwagon without reason and today is on a virtually indefensible bandwagon on me, who was one of the more trusted citizens yesterday.

Queuing, yesterday was probably the most distrusted individual, and was second on my list as far as "most likely scum", and has somehow largely slipped under the radar today with a little bit of sweet talking. He jumps on the bandwagon to lynch me for the same dubious reasons as Gadarene.

pimaspinner, under my radar yesterday, but jumps on the bandwagon to lynch me as well for dubious reasons. Appears to backpedal, and when I confronted, backed down.

hocow, for the reasons I stated in an earlier post, so I won't bother to repeat myself, looks to be the SK to me and is jumping on this bandwagon because she REALLY thinks I'm the VIG.

Of these 4 votes against me, I am almost certain that Gadarene and Queuing are both scum and they're either bothered by the analysis I gave yesterday, or reached a similar conclusion to hocow and think I'm a power role.

Blaster Master

03-31-2007, 09:38 PM

I was completely sure that chrisk was scum, but his caving seems more consistent with a townie that believes he has completely screwed over his town than with scum. I kinda felt the same way when I was lynched last game.
But you didn't screw over the town last game; you screwed over the wolves. :)

Seriously, it looks to me like chrisk was a well intentioned townie with a well intentioned idea that backfired. I won't read anything into why he's leaving, simply because we don't have enough information, and I think it's unfair to the player who will replace him if we assume anything about that. If chrisk was lying, the replacement will have a VERY difficult time reading back and keeping those lies consistent; so, if anything, I think chrisk leaving is ultimately positive for the town because it will either validate the things he's said, or the lies will stick out like a sore thumb.

Rysto

03-31-2007, 09:50 PM

today is on a virtually indefensible bandwagon on me
Virtually indefensible?

You led the lynch Enfant Terrible bandwagon.
You supported Pleonast's trusts list from the beginning. Those lists led directly to the loss of our Detective.
You publicly interrogated people about their trust lists, which looks very much like Cop-hunting.
You publicly called for the death of CaerieD for no reason at all, after saying that you had a bead on several power roles.

You call that indefensible?

Rysto

03-31-2007, 09:52 PM

On chrisk, perhaps he's distraught about inadvertently exposing or Detective, or perhaps he's distraught over inadvertently exposing several of his fellow Mafioso?

nesta

03-31-2007, 09:54 PM

Queuing, yesterday was probably the most distrusted individual, and was second on my list as far as "most likely scum", and has somehow largely slipped under the radar today with a little bit of sweet talking. He jumps on the bandwagon to lynch me for the same dubious reasons as Gadarene.

Just a note, but Queuing didn't jump on the bandwagon for you. He was the first vote, and the most vocal early in the day before he took his leave for a while. He started the bandwagon.

Gadarene, yesterday jumped from the Autolycus bandwagon to the Enfant Terrible bandwagon without reason and today is on a virtually indefensible bandwagon on me, who was one of the more trusted citizens yesterday.

[... snip ...]

Of these 4 votes against me, I am almost certain that Gadarene and Queuing are both scum and they're either bothered by the analysis I gave yesterday, or reached a similar conclusion to hocow and think I'm a power role.

I thought about pointing the FOS at Gadarene, but I've been operating under the assumption that chrisk is/was scum, and chrisk voted for Gadarene today in post 648 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414950&postcount=648). Even with the early bandwagon against chrisk I don't think it's likely he would vote for a fellow scum like that. Possible, but not likely.

Now, if chrisk isn't scum, then Gadarene starts looking more suspicious to me.

MadTheSwine

03-31-2007, 09:58 PM

So Rysto,What is your vote?

Rysto

03-31-2007, 10:01 PM

Not voting yet. Vote counts are pretty high right now, and I don't want to push anybody closer to a lynching at this point.

Unless something drastically changes in the next couple days, though, I'll be equally happy with a Pleonast, Blaster Master or chrisk lynch.

Kat

03-31-2007, 10:04 PM

Virtually indefensible?

You led the lynch Enfant Terrible bandwagon.
You supported Pleonast's trusts list from the beginning. Those lists led directly to the loss of our Detective.
You publicly interrogated people about their trust lists, which looks very much like Cop-hunting.
You publicly called for the death of CaerieD for no reason at all, after saying that you had a bead on several power roles.

You call that indefensible?

You left one out. He also deliberately lied (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414619&postcount=626) in his own trust list.

Fern Forest

03-31-2007, 10:32 PM

Maybe I'm too lenient but part of what I see is people who've never played before just trying things out and seeing if they work. And some of those actually seem pretty ludicrious when you think it for awhile. Of course they could Mafioso and still trying out some strategy they thought might work.

You know, 4 days of this might drive us all crazy. Kinda like a 2 hour Friday meeting to decide which shade of blue we want to use for out TPS reports.

I'd be happy if we could pull a trigger late tomorrow. After all that is what moves the game forward. Oh well, just my thoughts right now on a beautiful Saturday afternoon. Think I might go for a walk, watch the sunset and try not to think about the game for the first time in a few days. Maybe watch the sunset and eat a burger.

Oh and if I die I leave my locksmith shop to Kat. Hopefully someone will ask you how you got here.

nesta

03-31-2007, 10:33 PM

Only having two kills last night has been bothering me all day. I hate being confused.

I can't see the GA burning their one night of protection this early, unless it's Autolycus, so I don't think that was why.

I don't think SK would choose not to kill, and certainly not the Mafia. Their goal is for everyone but themselves to end up dead.

So that leaves that a Miller blocked someone, the Doctor protected someone, or there was an overlap between two of the night-killers. With any of those possibilities someone has some extra information.

I think the Doctor probably protected themselves last night because day 1 was so short that I don't think he could be sure he wasn't protecting Mafia. If the Doctor protected themselves and was saved then someone knows who the Doctor is (though they can't be sure because it could have been a Miller blocked them). This could be bad if it was the Mafia, or the SK. If it was the pro-town Vig then it might actually be a good thing because if the Vig is exposed he can vouch for the Doctor.

If a Miller blocked someone they now have a suspicion of who the Vig or SK is, or the Mafia but that's less likely the block would work. I assume they can't be sure if their block worked since I don't think NAF1138 tells people when their block worked (please correct me if I'm wrong). They could try blocking the same person again tonight and if we end up with two kills again they could be a little surer, and then be onto the Vig or SK.

If there was an overlap then two of the three night-killers can suspect that someone else targeted the same person, and use this to look back through posts for any clues about who else might have targeted that person. This could be a good thing if it was Vig or SK that overlapped with Mafia. They can't be sure it wasn't a Doctor protect or Miller block, though, since it could have been one of the other kills that failed, but it is a little extra info they can use.

Fern Forest

03-31-2007, 10:33 PM

Out TPS reports of course have to be a different color then In TPS reports which are red.

Nah I messed that up. "our" TPS reports.

Fern Forest

03-31-2007, 10:37 PM

I can't see the GA burning their one night of protection this early, unless it's Autolycus, so I don't think that was why.Unless old Auto is the GA. Heh-heh, what twist that'd be.

Thanks for thinking about it nesta and bringing it back up, how very townie of you.

And I mean that sincerely.

Ok, now I go.

Blaster Master

03-31-2007, 10:40 PM

Virtually indefensible?
I have already addressed each of these issues, but since you apparently missed it, I'll do a quick rehash..
You led the lynch Enfant Terrible bandwagon.
Yes, I was the second vote, but I think my reasoning was well thought out, and I saw few objections to it. Yes, I admit I missed one crucial fact, but so did everyone else who voted for him, so you can hardly hold that against me. The more suspicious votes for Enfant Terrible are the ones that were clearly jumping on bandwagons, NOT those of us who gave reasoned votes before the bandwagon started.
You supported Pleonast's trusts list from the beginning. Those lists led directly to the loss of our Detective.
You publicly interrogated people about their trust lists, which looks very much like Cop-hunting.
Yes, I was the first to support the trust/mistrust list, and I gave my reason for supporting it ALONG with my reservations about it. Further, if I were scum, why would I have drawn attention to the fact that someone distrusted me unless I legitimately thought it was a good idea. The fact that Pleonast quickly went from mistrusting to trusting me based on that is a reflection on him, NOT on me.
I publicly questioned Winston Smith for one reason only, which he never addressed. That was that he gave a list with justifications, except for his trust of Storyteller and his distrust of me. I figured that if he had good reasons for the rest of his list, he ought to have good reasons for us... unless he was trying to sneak in a mafia in his trust, and cast doubt on me.
You publicly called for the death of CaerieD for no reason at all, after saying that you had a bead on several power roles.
You can't really be serious about this, can you? I pointed out two of her posts which looked like scum tells to me (she had others as well). If I WERE mafia, would I be foolish enough to be the ONLY one publically calling for her death? If I were mafia and I had her pegged on a power role, I would have quietly waited and discussed it when I was meeting with the rest of the mafia. As I already stated, at the end of the day, she was second on my list as most likely mafia behind only Queuing.

You left one out. He also deliberately lied in his own trust list.
Nice try, but that's a deliberate misrepresentation of what I said. How many people had 100% concrete reasons for their trust lists, especially the earlier ones when we had little to go on? What's the difference between filling my trust list with gut reactions and just upright random names? All I claimed was that saying that I trusted someone yesterday that may now look suspicious, when it was pretty much a random list, doesn't account to much.

Blaster Master

03-31-2007, 10:55 PM

I'd be happy if we could pull a trigger late tomorrow.
Be careful with saying things like that. I'm not prepared to pull a trigger for a while because it's quite clear at this point that we're very divided among three or four candidates. It's very clear to me that one or two of the candidates are very legitimate suspects, and at least one case is an attempt by the mafia to force a bandwagon and end the day early. I will not be satisfied with ending the day until we have these candidates either exonerated or lined up such that the VIG and potentially the SK also have good targets to go on for the night.

Gadarene

03-31-2007, 11:48 PM

Blaster Master:
Of these 4 votes against me, I am almost certain that Gadarene and Queuing are both scum and they're either bothered by the analysis I gave yesterday, or reached a similar conclusion to hocow and think I'm a power role.

I assure you this is not the case. I'm not particularly bothered that you think that, but it's not the case.

Fern Forest:
Maybe I'm too lenient but part of what I see is people who've never played before just trying things out and seeing if they work.

Ding.

I'll ask the question I asked umpteen pages ago: is there anyone who's hardly posted at all so far?

Kat

03-31-2007, 11:49 PM

Nice try, but that's a deliberate misrepresentation of what I said. How many people had 100% concrete reasons for their trust lists, especially the earlier ones when we had little to go on? What's the difference between filling my trust list with gut reactions and just upright random names? All I claimed was that saying that I trusted someone yesterday that may now look suspicious, when it was pretty much a random list, doesn't account to much.

Except you didn't just say that you filled it with gut reactions or random names, you said you filled it with "largely hogwash" and then seemed to contrast it with your mistrust list "which was accurate to [your] suspicions", which I inferred (perhaps wrongly) to mean your trust list was deliberately inaccurate.

There's a huge difference between "gut reactions" and "hogwash" and even a distinct difference between "random names" and "hogwash" (unless you use "hogwash" differently that anyone I know, and it doesn't really mean "a load of BS"). So which is it?

If someone says they trust someone on "gut reactions" they have minimal evidence, but at least they're painting an accurate picture of who they trust (which is what I thought the point behind the list was). They may need to change it later as more info comes in, true; but just posting random names with no evidence, not even a wild guess, is pointless. Why not just say you don't trust anyone (which at least two people did, that I recall)? Or not post a trust list at all? Of course, that may look suspicious, since you supported the trust list idea. Why did you support it, if you thought it was so un-helpful that it didn't matter if yours was accurate or not?

And you still haven't answered my original question of why posting "hogwash" would trap the Mafia, to which I'll add why posting random names would do so.

I'm not trying to be mean or anything here. Notice I'm not voting for you. I just think it looks bad--like you're regretting a name or names that you included and now are trying to cover yourself. Everyone's reasons were pretty thin in Day One here, and in the previous game as well. Every Civilian is gonna have to look back more than once and admit, "Oops, I made a mistake when I voted for/mistrusted/trusted so-and-so." The fact that you're trying to disclaim your list makes you appear either guilty (i.e. you expect the list will give you away as a Mafia member) or untrustworthy (i.e. your information is suspect even if you aren't Mafia). I'm leaning towards the latter right now, which leaves me disappointed because I originally found your analysis posts helpful, but now I'm inclined to not trust a thing you post except for your final vote each day.

So, you won't get a vote against you from me today, but probably will on a day that I don't have a good Mafia suspect. Because a possible Civilian whose info I can't trust is worse to me than a player like Autolycus who posts a lot of nonsense, because bad info is worse than no info.

Santo Rugger

04-01-2007, 12:28 AM

I'm trying VERY hard not to jump on the Blaster Master Bandwagon. I think he's got alot of good analysis, but a part of me just thinks that he's trying a little too hard to cover his tracks. I'm not too sure at this point, but I'm leaning towards trusting Rysto, as he's got alot of good counter-points. As for Gadarene and Pleonast (please excuse my spelling!), I don't have enough of a tell on them yet to decide either way. I'll leave my vote for chrisk stand for now, but I may change it soon.

Blaster Master

04-01-2007, 12:42 AM

Except you didn't just say that you filled it with gut reactions or random names, you said you filled it with "largely hogwash" and then seemed to contrast it with your mistrust list "which was accurate to [your] suspicions", which I inferred (perhaps wrongly) to mean your trust list was deliberately inaccurate.

There's a huge difference between "gut reactions" and "hogwash" and even a distinct difference between "random names" and "hogwash" (unless you use "hogwash" differently that anyone I know, and it doesn't really mean "a load of BS"). So which is it?
First of all, I said "largely meaningless". Second, I'm using the definition of hogwash that is the only one I know, i.e. meaningless (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/hogwash). Now I ask, from an information theory perspective, what exactly is more meaningless than random information? Nothing.

If someone says they trust someone on "gut reactions" they have minimal evidence, but at least they're painting an accurate picture of who they trust (which is what I thought the point behind the list was). They may need to change it later as more info comes in, true; but just posting random names with no evidence, not even a wild guess, is pointless. Why not just say you don't trust anyone (which at least two people did, that I recall)? Or not post a trust list at all? Of course, that may look suspicious, since you supported the trust list idea. Why did you support it, if you thought it was so un-helpful that it didn't matter if yours was accurate or not?

You're missing the point. The idea for the trust/mistrust list was a way for the detective and beat cops to get their information out without being tracked as easily as the idea that chrisk proposed. Saying you trusted no one was actually worse than random information because you essentially eliminate yourself as a potential cop candidate, making the job for the mafia easier. Further, considering there was almost no information on which to act, a "gut reaction" is pretty much indistinguishable from random information because.

And you still haven't answered my original question of why posting "hogwash" would trap the Mafia, to which I'll add why posting random names would do so.

I explained this earlier as well, but I'm willing to take another stab at it. I think one method mafia may use to hide their tells is to find the individuals that seem to have a high amount of trust and generally agree with him or find someone who is generally distrusted and disagree with him. Being that Rysto and I generally had the highest levels of trust, I figured a member of the mafia may try to hide his stench by copying our trust/mistrust lists. If my list includes names of those who hadn't done much to be on the radar in either direction AND another individual also includes an eerily similar list AFTER I posted mine, I can then start to question his motives for including that name as well, and only after I had mentioned it. Obviously, in retrospect, this concept was flawed, which is why I dropped it.

I'm not trying to be mean or anything here. Notice I'm not voting for you. I just think it looks bad--like you're regretting a name or names that you included and now are trying to cover yourself. Everyone's reasons were pretty thin in Day One here, and in the previous game as well. Every Civilian is gonna have to look back more than once and admit, "Oops, I made a mistake when I voted for/mistrusted/trusted so-and-so." The fact that you're trying to disclaim your list makes you appear either guilty (i.e. you expect the list will give you away as a Mafia member) or untrustworthy (i.e. your information is suspect even if you aren't Mafia). I'm leaning towards the latter right now, which leaves me disappointed because I originally found your analysis posts helpful, but now I'm inclined to not trust a thing you post except for your final vote each day.

So, you won't get a vote against you from me today, but probably will on a day that I don't have a good Mafia suspect. Because a possible Civilian whose info I can't trust is worse to me than a player like Autolycus who posts a lot of nonsense, because bad info is worse than no info.

I understand how the idea looks, based on how you interpretted my reasoning. I think the main reasons it failed was because it was over-thought, and I over-estimated my level of trust. The bottom line is, we all made some tactical mistakes on the first day that led to a bad lynching and a worse night. This idea to try to double bluff the mafia apparently wasn't the best idea, but at least it looks like the only person it backfired on was me.

Blaster Master

04-01-2007, 12:57 AM

I'm trying VERY hard not to jump on the Blaster Master Bandwagon. I think he's got alot of good analysis, but a part of me just thinks that he's trying a little too hard to cover his tracks.
This is the thought process that bothers me, about the general sentiment of those in favor of lynching me. This game breeds so much paranoia, that we can get punished for being TOO helpful, which I admit is none but my own fault for posting so damn much.

And for those who hold issue with my analysis, notice I have seldom provided any FoS without what looked like solid reasoning at the time. For instance, if my FoS on CaerieD was SO SO bad yesterday, why didn't anyone question my reasoning then? It's easy to point fingers AFTER we get more information. I imagine when the first mafia member is killed, anyone who had that person in their initial trust list will be highly scrutinized for it, and I won't be the least bit surprised if some of them are the same people who are pointing their fingers at me for initially distrusting CaerieD. So, if you disagree with my reasoning, challenge me when I make my analysis, and I'll meet your challenge.

Fern Forest

04-01-2007, 12:59 AM

Be careful with saying things like that.Two reasons why I say it. This is day 2 and we still know so little. Yesterday began March 30, 12:36 PM HST and in the first 24 hours we've had 155 posts. With anothe 49 so far this day. We don't know too much more today then yesterday. But later on we'll have much more to go on especially when we get our first mafia kill. With a mafia kill we'll have posts to review by someone who knew a lot. We could make an intense effort to try and find someone today but ... Well a lot of effort but low chance of reward. I don't really expect a mafioso to make an posting error, rather we'll do better with their voting patterns once we get one. True I guess the longer we talk the better chance but I'm only human. Maybe a full weekend is about my limits. Is it normal to see mafioso hiding behind my couch?

Another reason we shouldn't be afraid to vote is that it's our best tool. Getting 4 or 5 votes isn't too big of a deal, votes are pretty fluid. But get someone 9 votes or even start the countdown and the pressure is really strong. They have to defend themselves or go down and that is where they are most likely to make a mistake if they're scum. If they make a good defence then we can always stop the clock. So let's not be afraid to vote, let's put their heads on the chopping block and see if they crack.

I think everyone has posted. Here's people's last post.
Aguecheek - Today, 03:58 PM
ArizonaTeach - Today, 03:26 AM
Autolycus - Yesterday, 09:19 PM
Blaster Master - Today, 07:42 PM
brewha - Today, 10:33 AM
chrisk - out
Fern Forest - Now
Flying Cow of Doom - Today, 03:29 PM
Fretful Porpentine - Today, 04:26 PM
Gadarene - Today, 06:48 PM
glee - 03-29-2007, 11:56 PM
hocow - Today, 11:42 AM
Kat - Today, 06:49 PM
Kivvik - Today, 04:26 PM
Lakai - Today, 08:16 AM
MadTheSwine - Today, 04:58 PM
Malacandra - Yesterday, 12:51 PM
Menocchio - Today, 04:27 PM
MonkeyMensch - Today, 10:41 AM
nesta - Today, 05:33 PM
pimaspinner - Today, 12:17 PM
Pleonast - Today, 04:42 AM
Pygmy Rugger - Today, 07:28 PM
Queuing - Today, 06:27 AM
Rysto - Today, 05:01 PM
Smitty - Yesterday, 01:09 PM
StarvingButStrong - Today, 02:51 PM
Storyteller0910 - 03-29-2007, 04:40 PM
Sturmhauke - Today, 10:06 AM
Suburban Plankton - Today, 03:58 PM
Winston Smith - Yesterday, 02:31 AM
Zuma - Today, 07:16 AM

So it looks like today we haven't heard from glee, Winston Smith and Storyteller0910

Santo Rugger

04-01-2007, 01:01 AM

This is the thought process that bothers me, about the general sentiment of those in favor of lynching me. This game breeds so much paranoia, that we can get punished for being TOO helpful, which I admit is none but my own fault for posting so damn much.

<snip>

It bothers you that I don't want to jump on your bandwagon? I'm trying to help you out here. Just chill out a bit... just a bit. I said two good things about you, and one bad thing, and you felt you had to defend it. You're making it very hard for me not to switch my vote.

Santo Rugger

04-01-2007, 01:06 AM

<snip>
So it looks like today we haven't heard from glee, Winston Smith and Storyteller0910

IIRC, those three all said they had IRL obligations for the next 48 hours or so. I, myself, was gone on Wednesday, and it took me this long to get caught up enough to the point where I felt comfortable posting. Give 'em a day or two, I'm sure they'll chime in soon enough. All three have had either a lot of posts, or succinct (sp) analysis to this point.

Blaster Master

04-01-2007, 01:14 AM

It bothers you that I don't want to jump on your bandwagon? I'm trying to help you out here. Just chill out a bit... just a bit. I said two good things about you, and one bad thing, and you felt you had to defend it. You're making it very hard for me not to switch my vote.
No no no... I was trying to say that it bothers me that people feel compelled to jump on ANYONE's bandwagon, muchless mine, for being "TOO helpful". I'm still trying to figure out how that's a bad thing. And by that sentiment, it's strange that I'm suddenly generally not trusted for being too helpful, but Rysto is still largely trusted, despite that he gained the trust by doing the spread sheet. I'm trying to figure out the hypocracy of that sort of reasoning, and who it implicates.

Also, please note that the post wasn't meant as an attack on you, but as an attack on that reasoning as a good enough reason for those who HAVE voted to lynch me.

Blaster Master

04-01-2007, 01:17 AM

Santo Rugger

04-01-2007, 01:30 AM

I agree with most of your reasoning. However, it is a RPG (Role Playing Game), and just as some of us have roles in the game, all of us have roles IRL. I wasn't able to vote on the first day because I had IRL obligations. Granted, my input most likely would not have changed any outcomes, but the game went on regardless. Just because those three are out of "town" for a couple days, visiting their grandmas or whatever, doesn't mean we should hold up the entire game for them. Just like my IRL town doesn't stop the presses when I'm out of town for a couple days.

That being said, I'm in favor of the 12 hour countdown, it only makes sence. Why should we cap an innocent without giving them a chance (and others the chance) to defend them fully. And give those in favor of said lynchings to change their minds. As has been said before, it only benefits the Mob to have flash judgements. Not to mention, I'm pretty sure the 12 hour thing has already been established.

Santo Rugger

04-01-2007, 01:36 AM

Fern Forest

04-01-2007, 01:44 AM

... and we shouldn't artificially delay the majority in order to try and squeeze blood from a turnip.
Now that's an analogy I could have used awhile ago. We've squeezed it pretty hard. Now it might be time to bring out the vice and give it a few turns.

Blaster Master

04-01-2007, 01:47 AM

Oh, I see what you mean, not to start the countdown early *damning no edit*. Regarding that, I think if the day goes on too long at such an early stage in the game, it's just going to lead to people switching their votes back and forth, keeping the votes from reaching a majority. If that happens, people may start to switch votes to people they trust, just to keep the votes balanced, and all information gained from vote-casting, as opposed to simply accusing, is lost. It's a fine line, and a two way street. My gut says that it's most benificial for us to find Mafia based on logic and guts, and we shouldn't artificially delay the majority in order to try and squeeze blood from a turnip.

I do think you have a point, that if we've pretty much reached a consensus, sitting around with virtually nothing to discuss, then delaying a final vote tally is a bit silly. However, that point clearly hasn't been reached yet for today, so I think we're better off crossing that bridge when we get to it. On the other hand, I can't even say with high certainty that anyone will necessarily receive the necessary 10 votes necessary to start the countdown, with four people in line for the choppin' block, that is.

Autolycus

04-01-2007, 01:53 AM

Uuuugh, my head's stuffed harder than Jenna Jamison's box. I's spent today hanging's out with me friend Jimmy, and everywhere we's go people are talkin's bout mafia this, mafia that. Aint nobody in this town know how's to mind their owns business? Judge not lest yours legs get broken, that's what me brother always said.

If youz guys gotta know what I think, it's the sames as before. No change.

Fern Forest

04-01-2007, 02:04 AM

Pleonast - 5 (Fern Forest, Kat, MadTheSwine, Suburban Plankton, Fretful Porpentine)
Blaster Master - 4 (Gadarene, hocow, pimaspinner, Queueing)
chrisk - 4 (Arizona Teach, Flying Cow Of Doom, Lakai, Pygmy Runner)
Queueing - 4 (StarvingButStrong, zuma, nesta, kivvik)
brewha - 1 (MonkeyMensch)
Gadarene - 1 (chrisk)
nesta - 1 (sturmhauke)

So Autolycus, are you going to cast a vote? We got 20 so far.

Autolycus

04-01-2007, 02:10 AM

So Autolycus, are you going to cast a vote? We got 20 so far.

I's believe in not's makin unnecessary-like enemies, so tha answa's no fo' nowz.

zuma

04-01-2007, 02:18 AM

Unbelievable. After all the damage the town suffered from a premature ending of day one, you want to do it again? There is nowhere near a concensus at this point, and we're still waiting for chrisk's replacement. Not to mention Winston Smith who pulled this stunt last time.

unvote: Queuing
Vote: Pygmy Rugger

Lakai

04-01-2007, 02:23 AM

I have been thinking about more ways to link up people who voted for Enfant. The only thing I am really sure of is that some mafia had to of voted for Enfant. This reduces the list from 31 names to 9.

Here is the list again:

Pleonast
BlasterMaster
ArizonaTeach
FlyingCow
Gadarene
Malacandra
Storyteller0910
pimaspinner
Cowgirl
Winston Smith

I am suspicious of Malacandra here, because his/her only post of value in this thread was his/her vote for Enfant.

I don't have much to go on for Winston Smith and pimaspinner. ArizonaTeach, FlyingCow, Gadarene and Malacandra jumped over here from the Autolycus boat. It could mean that some of them are mafia, but it's not really smoking gun on any of them.

However, Pleonast (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407721&postcount=391) , Blaster Master (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406247&postcount=323) and Storyteller0910 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408441&postcount=438) all were in favor of getting Stormhauke off death row. Rysto was also in favor of not killing Stormhauke, but he had different reasoning (he wanted keep strong players) which Pleonast liked over here. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408687&postcount=461)

As much as I think chrisk is messing with us with the whole "I can't handle this game" scheme, I would feel better voting to lynch someone from the Enfant voters list. My original choice of Pleonast was best.

Blaster Master is next on my list. Before I wasn't too suspicious of him because I mistakenly thought he was against the open detection system. Now that I've reread his post I just can't help but think he is mafia.

This weird conspiracy theory I have is nothing I know for sure now, but it is something I will find out by the end of the day.

Unvote chrisk. Vote Pleonast.

zuma

04-01-2007, 02:25 AM

I'll do a re-read later, but I'm finding it quite interesting people were content to bide their time when chrisk, who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar, was on the block, but are advocating slamming the door shut now that a bandwagon is developing for Blaster Master.

zuma

04-01-2007, 02:28 AM

Actually they didn't have their votes on him... disregard my last post. I'll do a re-read before commenting again.

Fern Forest

04-01-2007, 02:54 AM

Unbelievable. After all the damage the town suffered from a premature ending of day one, you want to do it again?It's not that we want to end the day early it's that sitting around in luke warm water isn't going to make anyone jump. We have to turn up the heat.

And if we turn up the heat now we give the accused lots of time to make his case, be removed from danger and find a new person to sacrifice. If we wait till the last minute to decide who we want to lynch and then that person says don't do it I'm the GA or something then we will have precious little time to analyze what they say and find a replacement if necessary. We have 3 1/2 days, we could take 7 people to the very edge of death if we wanted. Put their backs to the wall, blindfold them, say "ready, aim" and then see what they have to say. I would like it if we had at least a day remaining as we place the next victim's back against the wall. Two would be better especially since we're more likely to choose a townie then a mafioso. It gives us time to rework things if need be.

Let's put some real heat to people and see how they react because frankly 4 or 5 votes isn't making people panic.

zuma

04-01-2007, 03:18 AM

I agree that we need a couple days to put someone's back against the wall... But we have almost 4 right now.

Fern Forest

04-01-2007, 03:29 AM

MadTheSwine

04-01-2007, 06:26 AM

sturmhauke

04-01-2007, 07:13 AM

This little exchange looks highly suspicious to me:
So Rysto,What is your vote?
Not voting yet. Vote counts are pretty high right now, and I don't want to push anybody closer to a lynching at this point.

Unless something drastically changes in the next couple days, though, I'll be equally happy with a Pleonast, Blaster Master or chrisk lynch.
MadTheSwine had already voted for Pleonast when he made that post. This seems like he's trying to set up a line attack with Rysto a little later, when Pleonast has more votes against him (he already has 6) and Rysto can move in to trigger a countdown.

unvote nesta, vote Rysto

I haven't decided what to think of Blaster Master yet, but I think chrisk was probably just a Citizen and that he freaked out under the pressure. If that's true, it's a little irritating that he quit, but it's hardly a game breaker.

Winston Smith

04-01-2007, 08:07 AM

Okay, listen: I've been following along on my Blackjack phone all weekend (more or less), so I've got a decent handle on what's happening in town. Unfortunately, it's slow going, and impossible to open multiple browser windows, so I'm kind of hobbled. But I've got a few observations to make, and I'll back them up if necessary tomorrow when I'm at work and have more time to post. :)

Regarding chrisk: There's only one way out of town, at this point, and that's through the floor of the gallows. If chrisk wants out that's fine but I don't think we should sub him out. We're 17 pages and over 800 posts. If chrisk is Mafia, substitution offers them a tremendous benefit because we've got no backtrail on the sub. If chrisk is town, he should go out in style (take it from me, I know). I haven't read the last page and a half (busy sleeping and eating breakfast and whatnot), so if this has already been suggested, sorry to be redundent. Citizen or scum, chrisk wants out.

I vote to lynch chrisk

I have some significant suspicions about some other folks here, but let's get this chrisk business settled first.

zuma

04-01-2007, 08:28 AM

zuma

04-01-2007, 08:36 AM

I haven't decided what to think of Blaster Master yet, but I think chrisk was probably just a Citizen and that he freaked out under the pressure. If that's true, it's a little irritating that he quit, but it's hardly a game breaker.

I'm also starting to think chrisk was just a citizen who made a bad move. And find it quite misfortunate that he bowed out of the game, as his replacement can't really defend him.

Blaster Master has made some bad moves, but the quick bandwagon on him is worrisome.

I'm also of the opinion that we should just probably lynch Autolycus. He's all but declared himself a mafia and refuses to engage with town.

Menocchio's opinion that the vig should be killed also bothers me, even though I think CaerieD's investigation cleared him.

I also want answers from Winston Smith why he was so quick to lynch Enfant without a role-claim, and why he trusts the only person here who is all but claiming to be mafia.

Winston Smith

04-01-2007, 09:15 AM

Yes, Winston, that's all well and good, but can you explain throwing the game into night-time prematurely, resulting in a vig who had to shoot blind, all the while putting autolycus on your trust list? A few of us thought he's just misguided calling himself mafia, but you actually trust him?

Yes, my plan isn't perfect, but it's still the best way to deal with chrisk's defection. I just don't think the part should be sub'd out at this stage of the game.

zuma

04-01-2007, 09:19 AM

I was asking you to explain your actions yesterday, not today. i.e. not giving enfant a chance to role-claim and ending the day early.

Menocchio

04-01-2007, 09:21 AM

At this point I'm leaning towards Autolycus or chrisk, because they don't want to play, and killing them would increase the signal:noise ratio around here. I still think chrisk is running because he knows he screwed up, so:

I vote Autolycus
If we have to have a vigilante, I encourage him or her to go for chrisk (or Autolycus if chrisk is the lynched party).

zuma

04-01-2007, 09:31 AM

I agree with getting rid of autolycus, but upon re-thinking it, he's a better vig kill, not a lynch. At least with chrisk we can force a role-claim. Autolycus would just do his little mafia speech thing and would refuse to claim.

My view on Autolycus is that he's either:

1. a townie completely shitting all over this game
2. mafia playing his role openly either to rub it in our faces how long he's lasted, or to do the big double-bluff.

I'm more inclined to go with 2, and he won't cooperate or role-claim. I'd rather force a role-claim on someone who would use it.

nesta

04-01-2007, 09:35 AM

I think we've got 3d 13h. I asked for us to put someone up late tomorrow. They'll be put to the test on Monday while most of us are at work so actually it's better if we start the countdown Monday morning. Unfortunately the final 3 days are work days and we wont be able to spend as much time on this as we are now on the weekend.

If we start monday morning that gives us till monday evening for the victim to make his argument. Then we'd have until Tuesday morning to put someone else up. If that person also manages to convince us then we'd have to scramble a bit that night to find a third.

I thought the way the countdown worked was that once it's started, there's no going back. Someone will be lynched at the end of the 12 hours. We shouldn't get ten votes on anyone until we're sure we want them dead. We can change our mind if they defend themselves well, but that'll be a hectic 12 hours trying to find someone else to lynch.

NAF1138, can we get a clarification? Is the 12 hours a hard deadline to a lynching, or can we shut it off by unvoting?

Malacandra

04-01-2007, 09:51 AM

I am suspicious of Malacandra here, because his/her only post of value in this thread was his/her vote for Enfant.

"His", FFS. Am I going to have to put "I'm a dude, btw" back in my location field like it was for over a year? I've only been about the place for four years and nearly 6000 posts including a fair few on gender issues. :rolleyes:

Anyway I'm still catching up here after a day and a half away from home. If I can possibly digest everything that's been said since then, I'll try to come up with a "post of value".

zuma

04-01-2007, 10:03 AM

I'll spell it out again for Winston Smith:

Why did you end the day so soon?

Why did you not give Enfant a chance to role-claim?

AUtolycus is running around screaming "I am mafia". And that led you to put him on your trust list for what reason?

Malacandra

04-01-2007, 10:18 AM

Hmm. I don't want to jump on the "lynch chrisk" bandwagon as yet, partly because I am inherently suspicious of bandwagons, partly because chrisk didn't vote at all in the last round of votes, and I'm having a hard time believing that a self-respecting Mafia member wouldn't vote for someone.

As I said, I am inherently suspicious of bandwagons, particularly those who end up lynching someone innocent. Those who voted for Enfant Terrible are:

Pleonast (after first voting for Kivvik)
BlasterMaster
ArizonaTeach
FlyingCow (after first voting for Autolycus)
Gadarene
Malacandra (after first voting for Autolycus)
Storyteller0910
pimaspinner
Cowgirl
Winston Smith

Obviously, these are not all Mafia -- in fact one of them, sadly, has been exonerated by the last night's events. The two who stand out a mile to me, though, are the two who switched their votes from Autolycus to Enfant Terrible -- that is, from one bandwagon to another.

I want to go over the sequence of posts before I vote to lynch anyone, but Malacandra and FlyingCow are at the head of my list at the moment.

I see where you're coming from, of course, but it was a Day One lynching and, frankly, I don't see how it could have been anything other than a bandwagon. Also, I don't think a bandwagon on Day One is necessarily a bad thing -- someone's going to die on the basis of a town vote free of information (barring, perhaps, a dissenting cop/detective vote based on Night One info, which even then isn't necessarily going to carry the day and can hardly be backed by a role claim so early unless they really don't want to see Day Two) and at least you get some material to go on.

Regrettably I can't answer hocow's reasonable request to explain my FoS. You can think of several reasons why I might not, such as being a cop and not wanting to out myself too early, or thinking I've spotted a hint dropped by someone else and not wanting to draw attention to it lest they be a cop (obviously, not the Detective :( ), or (of course) being scum and wanting to start a bandwagon rolling albeit with a conspicuous lack of success so far.

I think we ought not to lynch Autolycus for now as we may want to leave the Vig someone who would be no great loss.

So I'll say vote hocow for now. Just to see what happens.

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-01-2007, 10:28 AM

In case anyone wants one, here's my vote count:

Pleonast - 6 (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Lakai, MadTheSwine, Suburban Plankton)
chrisk - 4 (ArizonaTeach, FlyingCowOfDoom, Pygmy Rugger, Winston Smith)
Blaster Master - 4 (Gadarene, hocow, pimaspinner, Queuing)
Queuing - 3 (Kivvik, nesta, StarvingButStrong)
Gadarene - 1 (chrisk)
hocow - 1 (Malacandra)
Autolycus - 1 (Menocchio)
brewha - 1 (MonkeyMensch)
Rysto - 1 (sturmhauke)
Pygmy Rugger - 1 (zuma)

--FCOD

Gadarene

04-01-2007, 10:48 AM

Thanks, FCOD. Being somewhat new to this, here's another question: is the goal right now simply to lynch someone who's scum, or should we be trying to lynch someone who's scum and who might help us figure out who else is scum? It seems to me that the latter goal is greatly preferable, and if this is the case, I submit that we shouldn't go after people like chrisk and Autolycus whose scumness, even if it's revealed, won't tell us much, if anything, about the larger scum network.

I mean, let's say we lynch Auto. Worst case scenario, he's a vanilla townie (or a power role), and while we might be able to glean some information from seeing who led the charge against him, it won't really tell us much because he's been acting so suspiciously that even other townies might have had legitimate cause to suspect him. Best case scenario, he's scum. But what does that tell us? Again, because Auto's generated so much noise on his own, I don't think you can impute anything into whether or not someone supported or didn't support his lynching. Thus, I don't know if his being confirmed scum actually gives us any concrete leads we didn't have before. Same thing, it seems to me, with chrisk. The two of them are chaff. They could both plausibly be town, and if they're scum, I don't think their lynching unlocks many doors.

I'd much rather go after someone who has been making an effort to play the game, someone who's been part of repeated voting blocs and who has clearly delineated camps of supporters/detractors. That way we get a ton of information about allegiances and alliances (always remembering that scum know more than we do to begin with) even if it turns out, worst-case, that they're town.

All that being said, then, I think we should be looking at people like Pleonast and Blaster Master rather than chrisk and Autolycus.

Gadarene

04-01-2007, 10:55 AM

For this reason, by the way, Menocchio is starting to twig my suspicion meter for his post here:

At this point I'm leaning towards Autolycus or chrisk, because they don't want to play, and killing them would increase the signal:noise ratio around here. I still think chrisk is running because he knows he screwed up, so:

I vote Autolycus
If we have to have a vigilante, I encourage him or her to go for chrisk (or Autolycus if chrisk is the lynched party).

At best, his reasoning is misguided and unhelpful, I think. And I'm sort of puzzled that CaerieD trusted him....I realize that's what's allowing most people to discount the possibility that he's scum, but there's something not quite right about his posts to me.

NAF1138

04-01-2007, 10:59 AM

NAF1138, can we get a clarification? Is the 12 hours a hard deadline to a lynching, or can we shut it off by unvoting?
You can shut it off by unvoting.

And I am working on a votecount for this morning, but after the last one I am going to take a little more time with it.

NAF1138

04-01-2007, 11:03 AM

On the subject of chrisk, I can assure you that his reasons for subing don't have to do with his role in the game. We talked about it a bit and his reasons are sound. What I am trying to say is...this isn't a piece of strategy and I don't want it to throw the game into a tailspin because you think it might be, he was legitimatly unable to finish the game. If he wants to come in and elaborate later that is fine, but that is all I am going to say on the matter.

Still looking for a sub btw.

ArizonaTeach

04-01-2007, 11:10 AM

Hey, anybody else erase entire posts before submitting because you're afraid of being misinterpreted? Man...

Oh, fantastic. Thanks to preview, there goes my entire analysis of chrisk that I had formulated.

Bottom line is, I made accusations against him. He offered up a half-hearted defense and pretty much admitted he had made a mistake somewhere (post 657). So, I'm still voting him for now. However, if I'm wrong (and also helped drive him from the game unintentionally), I'm truly, truly going to feel miserable.

Suburban Plankton

04-01-2007, 11:11 AM

I can see Winston Smith's point about getting rid of chrisk, and I rather agree with the sentiment (from a "good for the game" perspective); however, I'm a bit suspicious that the person who put the rope around Enfant Terrible's neck is now the one advocating killing the one person who really cannot possibly defend himself.
On the other hand, I am suspicious of him (chrisk) due to his connection with Blaster Master and Pleonast, both of whom I have been openly critical of. But I don't think we should lynch chrisk today, while we have other equally viable suspects.

You can also add Queueing to my "Mafia Quadumvirate", based upon his "trust lists" in Posts 327 and 437. (I think the outcome of this upcoming Day/Night cycle will show the worth of these lists. Either they are going to help us wipe out the Mafia in short order, or they are going to doom us to self extinction. I don't see any middle ground right now.)

I don't share the suspicion being placed on Autolycus. I don't think he's scum; I think he's just messing around. I do agree that it's annoying, but I don't think it's anything more than that. Of course, I probably won't mourn too long if he becomes the latest victim of the Serial Killer, but I don't want his blood on my hands right now.

All that being said, then, I think we should be looking at people like Pleonast and Blaster Master rather than chrisk and Autolycus.My sentiments exactly.

Gadarene

04-01-2007, 11:15 AM

Another quasi-newbie question:

NAF, can Mafia members privately confer and strategize (in their Google group or whatever) during the daytime, or only at night?

NAF1138

04-01-2007, 11:43 AM

Another quasi-newbie question:

NAF, can Mafia members privately confer and strategize (in their Google group or whatever) during the daytime, or only at night?

Only at night.

Menocchio

04-01-2007, 11:48 AM

At best, his reasoning is misguided and unhelpful, I think. And I'm sort of puzzled that CaerieD trusted him....I realize that's what's allowing most people to discount the possibility that he's scum, but there's something not quite right about his posts to me.
CaerieD trusted me because she investigated me, and I came up town. Listing me by myself was a strategic error on her part, and likely led to her death, but let's not let it go to waste.

As town, we have three enemies. The Mafia, the SK, and disruptive town players (the vigilante is also a potential liability and the miller is also likely going to do more harm than good). The first two are our targets, obviously, but the latter group makes it so much harder to ferret out the real scum. If someone is practically begging to be lynched, lynch them. Even if they aren't scum, The proceeding days will be much smoother for the town.

I'm letting my vote for Autolycus stand, although I see the logic in letting the Vig take the easy ones. The problem I have with that is that I don't trust the Vig.

NAF1138

04-01-2007, 11:50 AM

Checked this on against FCoD's just to be sure.

(1) Autolycus (Menocchio)
(4) Blaster Master (Queuing, Gadarene, hocow, pimaspinna)
(1) brewha (Monkey Mench)
(4) chrisk (Winston Smith,FCoD, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach)
(1) Gadarene (Chrisk)
(1) Malacandra (hocow)
(6) Pleonast (Lakai, Kat, MadTheSwine, Suburban Plankton, Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine)
(1) Pygmy Rugger (zuma)
(1) Queuing (StarvingButStrong, nesta, Kivvik)
(1) Rysto (sturmhauke)

I am going to be gone most of the day, but will check in with the thread again tonight.

Gadarene

04-01-2007, 11:59 AM

Menocchio:
CaerieD trusted me because she investigated me, and I came up town.

With due respect, you're assuming facts not in evidence. We don't know this to be true.

As town, we have three enemies. The Mafia, the SK, and disruptive town players (the vigilante is also a potential liability and the miller is also likely going to do more harm than good). . . . If someone is practically begging to be lynched, lynch them. Even if they aren't scum, The proceeding days will be much smoother for the town.

This is essentially wrong, isn't it? Disruptive town members are still town members. Are you seriously suggesting that we should have no qualms about culling townies at this stage, disruptive or otherwise, thus giving the Mafia two hits for the price of one and yielding absolutely no useful information for ourselves? That's suicide.

As I say, far better to lynch a non-disruptive (but still suspicious) town member...regardless of the outcome, that will tell us far more about the allegiances that have formed than will bumping off Chuckles, the village idiot. No offense, Auto. :)

Menocchio

04-01-2007, 12:10 PM

Lakai

04-01-2007, 12:11 PM

As town, we have three enemies. The Mafia, the SK, and disruptive town players (the vigilante is also a potential liability and the miller is also likely going to do more harm than good). The first two are our targets, obviously, but the latter group makes it so much harder to ferret out the real scum. If someone is practically begging to be lynched, lynch them. Even if they aren't scum, The proceeding days will be much smoother for the town.

If we just ignore them the game will run smoothly as well. If we waste a lynch vote on Autolycus we wouldn't learn much of anything. Like Gadarene said, it is better to vote for someone that would, if found to be mafia, lead us to a network of other mafioso scum.

If Pleonast turns out to be mafia, we have a good lead on the fact that Blaster Master, Storyteller0910 and Strumhauke could be mafia. Blaster Master and Storyteller0910, along with Pleonast, tried to steer people away from voting for Sturmhauke. They also both voted for our dearly departed Enfant Terrible.

It might not be much, but it is a whole lot better than what we would get if we lynch Autolycus.

Kat

04-01-2007, 12:20 PM

As I say, far better to lynch a non-disruptive (but still suspicious) town member...regardless of the outcome, that will tell us far more about the allegiances that have formed than will bumping off Chuckles, the village idiot. No offense, Auto.

I think I pretty much put my opinion on that one in my last post: If you don't have any other good Mafia suspicions, vote for the disruptive/unhelpful players. For 2 reasons: (1) Perhaps they're being disruptive/unhelpful because they're Mafia and (2) players, even Civilians, who are being disruptive or unhelpful hurt the Town and help the Mafia. If the odds are likely that a Civilian is gonna be lynched, make it one who's not helping.

Gadarene

04-01-2007, 12:24 PM

Yes, I'm saying that when someone like Autolycus gives us a choice between "dumb or scum playing dumb" then we should lynch them. We're not so far behind that we absolutely need the bodies, and their subtraction would help us on subsequent days. For one thing, we wouldn't have to debate this over and over again.

I'm saying that when we have an obvious target, we take it, and not worry about it being too obvious. We find the subtler ones later, and take the gimmes where we can.

I completely disagree with you, Menocchio, and agree with Lakai. For what it's worth, my pretty-much-trust list right now consists of myself, Rysto, and Lakai. Everyone I've previously trusted is out the window at the moment. (And, of course, if either Rysto or Lakai turn out to be scum, I'll look like a total idiot.)

Kat:
I think I pretty much put my opinion on that one in my last post: If you don't have any other good Mafia suspicions, vote for the disruptive/unhelpful players. For 2 reasons: (1) Perhaps they're being disruptive/unhelpful because they're Mafia and (2) players, even Civilians, who are being disruptive or unhelpful hurt the Town and help the Mafia.

Auto may be unhelpful, Kat, but how in the world is he being disruptive? chrisk was being a bit more disruptive than Auto, but as he's apparently asked to leave the game I assume any disruption on his part will now cease.

If the odds are likely that a Civilian is gonna be lynched, make it one who's not helping.

Why don't we just lynch scum, instead? Seems to solve that problem without the pragmatism of, "Oh well, we're gonna further decimate townie numbers anyway..."

Gadarene

04-01-2007, 12:26 PM

I also concur with Lakai that sturmhauke is potentially very suspicious, although I'd rather string up Pleonast or Blaster Master first to see if the network unravels that way.

Gadarene

04-01-2007, 12:28 PM

Menocchio:
We're not so far behind that we absolutely need the bodies, and their subtraction would help us on subsequent days.

Apologies for the triple-post, but I just want to reiterate that the above statement is either spectacularly wrong or dangerously wrong. We're behind 6-0! How can town interests possibly be served right now by getting rid of someone whose only real crime has been his piss-poor Damon Runyon impression? Hell, Auto's not even posting that much.

nesta

04-01-2007, 12:30 PM

I understand your thinking Menocchio, that a player that isn't playing is hurting us overall, but I don't think we gain anything at this point by lynching Autolycus. If he's scum then it would be good to have him gone of course, but if he is scum he's not really doing much to help their cause. I find his posts very annoying, but there haven't been very many of them so they're easy to ignore. He hasn't posted much game relevant info so if he's town he's just dead weight. I don't think lynching him just to get rid of him, and then giving the mafia a free night, would be our best move.

I say we encourage the Vig to take him out tonight and concentrate on people whose deaths give us more information.

storyteller0910

04-01-2007, 12:32 PM

Hello, all -

I'm just getting back in after a thrilling weekend with my in-laws, which is why I've been mostly silence these last 24 (IRL) hours. I'm going to spend some quality time reading this thread - 17 pages! In two game days! - and be back with more substantive discussion in a little while. Sorry for my brief absence.

Kat

04-01-2007, 12:39 PM

Auto may be unhelpful, Kat, but how in the world is he being disruptive? chrisk was being a bit more disruptive than Auto, but as he's apparently asked to leave the game I assume any disruption on his part will now cease.

I didn't mean to imply that Auto was being disruptive (yet, at least). The two of you were discussing disruptive members in general, as well as Auto in particular.

Why don't we just lynch scum, instead? Seems to solve that problem without the pragmatism of, "Oh well, we're gonna further decimate townie numbers anyway..."

That's why I specified "when you don't have any other good Mafia suspects". If you're equally suspicious of everyone, take out the unhelpful folks first. It's better than flipping a coin or using random.org anyway.

Gadarene

04-01-2007, 12:41 PM

That's why I specified "when you don't have any other good Mafia suspects". If you're equally suspicious of everyone, take out the unhelpful folks first. It's better than flipping a coin or using random.org anyway.

True. Although I would submit---and I don't know whether you disagree---that we do have some other good, or at least colorable, Mafia suspects right now. That is to say, we have what looks to be a loose voting bloc whose input has steered us towards lynching townies and who appear to be protecting each other. I say we try to unravel that thread.

Kat

04-01-2007, 12:49 PM

I totally agree. But we're not necessarily going to have good Mafia suspects every "Day". Or maybe we will, if we're lucky. ;)

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-01-2007, 12:49 PM

Aguecheek

04-01-2007, 12:53 PM

Y'ask me, this is getting silly.

We've got all this back and forth finger-pointing and remarkably indepth analysis of a buttload of posts. All of this is based on (shout out to dearly departed CaerieD) circumstantial evidence. We've had one vote, people; in a round that is commonly understood to be nothing but random anyways. Our detective had one chance to make her findings known, and we're arguing over whether one of four people was her "breadcrumb."

Votes are what will drive our lynching the scum, and we've got squat so far. One almost random guess that turned out to be wrong.

We're waiting to hear from 3 (IIRC) people thus far, and we are loathe to lynch another townie. I say we wait to hear from them, step back away from the keyboard, and take a good hard look at everything CaerieD posted. Then vote from what we glean from that.

Otherwise we're spitting into the wind. Everything we say is coming back to bite us in the ass and doing nothing but muddying the waters anyways.

Autolycus

04-01-2007, 02:00 PM

That's it Pinocchio, you've gones really cheezed me off. Youz must got some big-ass balls to be treatin's me like that, likes I'm some animal you can just puts down. I've been in this damn shithole town since befores you even was born, so dont go talkin' to me like you is king. You 'aint king of shit, jackass.

It justs so happens like the lynch mob is handin's out voter cards, so I'ms gonna violate my code and fills in your name. If they donts do it, maybe I'lls do it myself, who knows right?

Vote Menocchio

Gadarene

04-01-2007, 02:02 PM

If they donts do it, maybe I'lls do it myself, who knows right?

Is this a claim, Auto? :)

Fern Forest

04-01-2007, 02:16 PM

We have lost 6 people but even if we lost 8 townies in the next two days and nights it's still possible to win. Very hard but not impossible. We're down but not in desperation yet.

I think it's actually expected the town to drop behind in the early rounds as they have little to go on while all the Mafia are in the know. But later our odds will improve. That the last game got the Alpha Wolf on the first day has to be extremely rare.

I'd like to propose that we've finished or have nearly finished the primary season. If you've made your arguments to go after someone but no one else agrees then you probably should change your vote. Otherwise we'd have to wait till Wednesday and sunset and our pressure strategy is less effective. We should discuss exactly when the countdown should start.

I live in Hawaii Standard Time. I am 3 hours behind California's PST. Monday I wont be able to get to the internet till a little after 7 o'clock PST. We need to make sure the accused does indeed have a chance to defend themselves and that we have a chance to see that and react accordingly. Unfortunately for me I'm a far away from most other people and so should have a bit of conflict with the rest of you.

Gadarene

04-01-2007, 02:26 PM

I think Aguecheek is right that there isn't much more information likely to be gleaned this round, and Fern Forest is right that it's time to start consolidating our voting blocs. Remember that lynching someone is the first and best way for the town to figure things out, especially now that our detective is gone.

With that in mind, I'm switching votes.

unvote Blaster Master

vote Pleonast

As I've made clear, I think that lynching either of the two above is likely to help us unravel a scum network. I'm comfortable bandwagoning whichever one looks most likely to get the necessary votes.

Autolycus

04-01-2007, 02:35 PM

Is this a claim, Auto? :)

My lips is sealed :)

Lakai

04-01-2007, 02:38 PM

We're waiting to hear from 3 (IIRC) people thus far, and we are loathe to lynch another townie. I say we wait to hear from them, step back away from the keyboard, and take a good hard look at everything CaerieD posted. Then vote from what we glean from that.

Just to make it easy for people here are her posts:

Post 261 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8405550#post8405550)
Post 296 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8405880#post8405880)
Post 326 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8406256#post8406256)
Post 335 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8406391#post8406391)
Post 341 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8406678#post8406678)
Post 445 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8408334#post8408334)
Post 433 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8408412#post8408412)
Post 440 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8408465#post8408465)
Post 445 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8408501#post8408501)
Post 448 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8408518#post8408518)
Post 450 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8408523#post8408523)
Post 458 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8408622#post8408622)
Post 476 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8408888#post8408888)
Post 489 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8409004#post8409004)

These are only day posts, with the exception of the last one which was made after Enfant's death.

hocow

04-01-2007, 03:08 PM

So I'll say vote hocow for now. Just to see what happens.

You want to lynch me "just to see what happens"? :dubious:

What are you expecting to happen? I still don't understand what I'm doing do set off your and Blaster Master's FOS. But so far, it's only the two of you who seem out to get me. That is suspicious to me. I'm beginning to think the two of you are in cahoots somehow. For now, I'll stick to my original vote, but I'm keeping my eye on you as well.

Hockey Monkey

04-01-2007, 03:10 PM

These are some of my thoughts so far. Please don’t be offended if over or under analyzed anyone. This is taking a long time, and I’m starting to get tired. (I’ve been working on this for almost 5 hours) :D

Aguecheek – no posts of substance until #393 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8407731#post8407731) where discusses role assignment, votes to lynch sturmhauke, and casts a FOS on Autolycus. In #400 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8407829#post8407829), he discusses the SK, and again casts suspicion on sturmhauke for not being killed. In post #731 (http://http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8416181#post8416181) he notes that Blaster Master called for the SK or VIG to take out CaerieD, our departed Detective. Aguecheek hasn’t pinged my MafiaMeter

ArizonaTeach – hasn’t said much, but not making any sirens go off for me.

Autolycus – annoying, yes. Did kind of say he was suspicious of Blaster Master. But I agree that we can’t glean any useful information from his death right now. I still have a hunch that he’s the SK, but that’s only based on the way he’s crazy playing his character.

Blaster Master – too many posts for me to list them all, and I have previously laid out some of my suspicions about him. My vote for Blaster stands.

brewha – hasn’t contributed much yet, due to LASIK, he’s suspicious of Blaster Master and MonkeyMensch.

chrisk – bowing out. I don’t think we should lynch him as again I agree that we can’t get any information from his posts. Let his sub come in and see what happens.

Fern Forest – the jury is still out. I agree that it’s time to turn up the heat a little and hear from the people who are on the lynching list. We need information. To answer her question in post #734 (http://http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8416193#post8416193), yes, I am saying that Blaster Master was probably her breadcrumb.

Flying Cow of Doom – I pointed the FOS at FCOD early on, and he hasn’t really said anything one way or the other to sway me. Hasn’t really done anything suspicious, but hasn’t convinced me he isn’t scum either.

Fretful Porpentine – right now I like Fretful ‘cause he’s from my neck o’ the woods, and his suspicions are along the same lines as mine.

Gadarene – I’ve pretty much agreed with his last few comments, so I’m thinking Gadarene is town.

glee – no alarms so far.

hocow – in post #725 (http://http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8416039#post8416039), he theorizes that Blaster Master may be the SK. I don’t know about being the SK, but I don’t think Blaster Master is working on the side of good, as I have said before. I’m inclined to think right now that hocow is town.

Kat – not setting off any alarms right now.

Kivvik – same, no alarms.

Lakai – was on Blaster Master’s early trust lists for no apparent reason. Blaster Master tried to backtrack his trust lists by saying he filled them with “hogwash” to lay a scum trap. I think he was just trying to cover up his mistake. Lakai notes that it looks like Queuing is trying to fish out intelligent players in post #295 (http://http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8405878#post8405878), then casts a vote for Queuing. In post
#381 (http://http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8407625#post8407625) Lakai again levies suspicion on Queuing, because he didn’t want the lynch Enfant Terrible, and lists Blaster Master in the trust column. In post #636 (http://http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8414759#post8414759) he notes the certainty that some Mafia voted for Enfant. Of this list, I think that the Mafia votes were from Pleonast, Blaster Master, and FlyingCowOfDoom. I don’t think Winston realized that his 10th vote would drop the gallows so suddenly, because that’s not how it happened in the last game. I’m one of the ones who misguidedly voted for Enfant, because at the time, I thought that Blaster Master was working on the side of good, and was trusting his judgement. Then in one of his next posts, Lakai says he thinks Blaster Master is mafia. I am not sure which camp to put Lakai in right now.

MadTheSwine – not a clue as to which side he’s on.

Malacandra – don’t have a good read yet.

Menocchio – not sure what to think. I don’t like his reasoning that we should lynch Autolycus or chrisk per post #809 (http://http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8417410#post8417410)

MonkeyMensch – no alarms.

nesta – no alarms.

pimaspinner – I’m town. :D

Pleonast – first vote for Enfant

Pygmy Rugger – don’t see any suspicious behavior

Queuing – I’m still inclined to think he’s town, because his thinking so far has been about the same as mine.

Rysto – not sure, not sure at all.

Smitty – no alarms ringing.

StarvingButStrong – no alarm bells here either.

Storyteller0910 – not a lot of posts to go on, no sirens here.

Sturmhauke – other than not being dead, no one has given me a reason to think he’s suspicious.

Suburban Plankton – hasn’t really done anything yet to ping my suspicion-o-meter.

Winston Smith – other than casting the 10th vote for Enfant, I don’t find anything nefarious with Winston.

Zuma – I haven’t got a good read here either.

Dnooman-Whacked Night 1- Citizen
Captain Carrot- Whacked Night 1- Mason
One and Only Wanderers- Whacked Night 1- Citizen
Enfant Terrible – Lynched Day 1- Citizen
CaerieD – Whacked Night 2- Detective
cowgirl – Whacked Night 2- Citizen

Other than thinking that Autolycus might be the SK, I don’t really have any (except for the dead ones) idea who any of the power roles are. I don’t even know if anyone else will find these notes helpful in any way, but it gave me a chance to line things up in my own mind. And just because someone hasn’t raised my suspicions, doesn’t mean I trust them. I think we need to get this next lynching right, which is why I agree with Fern Forest that the heat needs to be turned up.

hocow

04-01-2007, 03:13 PM

Upon reflection, I wonder if Malacandra and Blaster Master are in cahoots in a good way...

I'm leaning towards scum, but I can't help but wonder if maybe they could be masons? I need to look at it from all angles I suppose.

Winston Smith

04-01-2007, 03:18 PM

I was asking you to explain your actions yesterday, not today. i.e. not giving enfant a chance to role-claim and ending the day early.

Yesterday? I didn't realize there wasn't a countdown and I was just trying to provoke action. I don't want this goddamned game to last 3 months. If there's one thing we learned from that whole sordid affair it's type faster.

Trying to get wheels under your lynch Winston bandwagon? Stop wasting your time. I smell what you're cookin' and it stinks.

Rysto

04-01-2007, 03:24 PM

Guys, just so you know, I'll be very busy over the next 24 hours, so I probably won't have a chance to post here during that time. We'll see how things go.

kivvik

04-01-2007, 03:54 PM

A quick rules clarification question: The Detective is the same as the 'Seer' from WereWolf, right? Always right, unless they investigate the Godfather? Or is modern investigative science better than ancient augury and they always see who they look at as what they truly are?

Lakai

04-01-2007, 03:55 PM

kivvik

04-01-2007, 04:01 PM

Gotcha, thanks Lakai :) While not accusing anyone of anything, it does mean we must all keep in mind that even the Detective cannot definitely know that someone is a true Citizen.

small note to those who like making lists: Please do not capitalize the first letter of my name. It's just a small pet peeve of mine :p

storyteller0910

04-01-2007, 04:10 PM

Wow. Well, here we go. The first thing I have learned is this: do not, under any circumstances, leave this board unread for more than 24 hours. Catching up is hell. I've re-read the last Day's worth of posts three times in a row, and I'm still having trouble sorting out the various plotlines here. That said, I'd like to wade in here. Here are my thoughts, in no particular order:

RYSTO: His post many, many pages ago analyzing the effect of the trust lists was really, really good. I certainly didn't think about it that way, and neither did a lot of posters. I'm not I'm even ready to credit the Mafia with having thought about it that way - which is my way of saying that I don't know if Pleonast or the-player-formerly-known-as-chrisk ought to be lynched solely on the basis of inventing the trust list ideas.

FERN FOREST: Seems to be pushing for an early resolution to the day, which is suspicious to me given how dreadfully that went the last time. However, she did describe sturmhauke, Autolycus, chrisk, and Enfant Terrible as "three people I think they [the Mafia] want us to kill for them and one we did." I agree with this analysis; more on this later in this post.

GADARENE: Very suspicious to me. He's still pushing on sturmhauke a little bit, and the only reason still seems to be that sturmhauke is still alive. He was also pushing to lynch Blaster Master, then positively leaped onto the Pleonast train for the explicit purpose of speeding up the lynching process, which (I had thought) we had generally agreed didn't work so well the last time around.

ZUMA: Has been a pretty consistent voice of reason and has argued in favor of avoiding rushes to judgment. Voted for Pygmy Rugger basically because he wanted to speed the rush to judgment. Seems highly unlikely to be scum.

PIMASPINNER: Honest question: I don't understand your reasoning for believing that CaerieD's breadcrumb was against Blaster Master and not "for" Mennocchio. The odds that our Detective nailed scum on the first shot seem modest. Plus, it makes more sense pyschologically for the Detective to investigate someone who played in the last game (Mennochio), just as everyone else targeted a former player that first Night.

BLASTER MASTER: Boy, I think we'd be making a huge mistake lynching him. His analysis has been pretty good and useful, and I'm not buying most of the arguments against him. Fortunately, that bandwagon seems to be losing steam.

PLEONAST: Here's the thing: last Day, we all piled onto Enfant Terrible. Our buildup to lynching was marked by ET's failure to answer the charges, which was regarded as suspcious. Now we're kind of doing the same thing to Pleonast. I certainly don't see evidence of any kind sufficient to push him closer to lynching before he has a chance to come in here and answer the charges. If we had waited on lynching ET to hear his defense, we might well have rethought the decision.

Anyway, that's a lot of analysis and no vote, I know. Right now, I'm seizing on Fern Forest's statement quoted above: ie, that sturmhauke, Autolycus, chrisk, and Enfant Terrible are "three people I think they want us to kill for them and one we did." On the basis of this statement, I propose the following:

Resolved: That at least one of the people who has called for the lynching of sturm, Auto, or chrisk is probably Mafia, and that cross-referencing that list with the list of people who did vote for Enfant Terrible might produce useful information.

If anyone likes my reasoning in the above post, I'll start cross-referencing; let me know what y'all think.

ArizonaTeach

04-01-2007, 04:11 PM

These are some of my thoughts so far.
ArizonaTeach – hasn’t said much, but not making any sirens go off for me.
Guess I should be happy the first time I get a shout-out it's not an accusation...but still, would it have hurt you to include the fact that I'm so gosh-darn sexy to the ladies?
Figure I might as well say that my Spring Break is over, so I doubt I'll be posting or reading much during school hours on weekdays now.

As far as the game goes, I'm still eyeing chrisk, but there have been some very powerful arguments for breaking the perceived mafia clusters that I have said from the beginning I've been suspicious of.

brewha

04-01-2007, 04:13 PM

I finally got caught up in the reading. Wow that's a lot. Here's my thoughts. Blaster Master has been very vocal in leading this town. He probably has about the most written in this thread. So why hasn't the mob chosen to silence him? There's only one answer for me:

Lynch Blaster Master

Hockey Monkey

04-01-2007, 04:16 PM

Guess I should be happy the first time I get a shout-out it's not an accusation...but still, would it have hurt you to include the fact that I'm so gosh-darn sexy to the ladies?
<snip>

Cite? :p

Autolycus

04-01-2007, 04:21 PM

kivvik

04-01-2007, 04:22 PM

We just need to come to a general consensus on whether we wish to start forcing confession/defense posts in order to drag information out of people or to continue as we are, with the various accusations and responses.

The former option has the possibility of shortening the day with its aggressive lynching attempts, but remember that we have the 12 hour Window of Life and that we can unvote them (should they show themselves trustworthy enough) to end the countdown and return to our regularly scheduled programming. Or we might find someone who, for whatever reason be it poor debating skills or no good defensive stance, really pings our meters and we have a lychee to get all CSI over the next day in hopes that they had a secret note sewn into the cuff of a pants leg.

The latter gives us pretty much maximum time for everyone to chime in with their thoughts and feelings, but there's not as much pressure and chance for someone to crack. We would also run the possibility of not being able to settle onto a good choice and the day's ending forcing a lynching, as I doubt the 12 hour WoL will go into effect if we run out of time. Otherwise the day could go on forever as we vote, unvote, vote again.

MadTheSwine

04-01-2007, 04:27 PM

IIRC, those three all said they had IRL obligations for the next 48 hours or so. I, myself, was gone on Wednesday, and it took me this long to get caught up enough to the point where I felt comfortable posting. Give 'em a day or two, I'm sure they'll chime in soon enough. All three have had either a lot of posts, or succinct (sp) analysis to this point.

Those three are glee,Winston Smith and storyteller0910.

I reviewed the thread starting at page 7.
The only one that said anything like he might be away was storyteller0910 and on top of that didn't really say he was going to be away,just not able to add in depth analysis(Post 590).

storyteller0910 and my beloved Winston Smith both voted for Enfant.

Winston trusts storyteller in post 457

The point is... Pygmy got his threads confused and posted things here that were said in the Mafia thread.

I think these 4 goons need to be looked at,along with pimaspinner who defends all 4 of them in post 847.

Unvote Pleonast

Vote Pygmy Rugger

Malacandra

04-01-2007, 04:28 PM

You want to lynch me "just to see what happens"? :dubious:

What are you expecting to happen? I still don't understand what I'm doing do set off your and Blaster Master's FOS. But so far, it's only the two of you who seem out to get me. That is suspicious to me. I'm beginning to think the two of you are in cahoots somehow. For now, I'll stick to my original vote, but I'm keeping my eye on you as well.

Well, y'know, I could want to vote for you just to see what happens. :dubious:

Fern Forest

04-01-2007, 04:36 PM

... we have a lychee ...
I hope not, I don't really like lychee.

I'll repeat my thought that Blaster Master and pimaspinner are probably on opposite sides.

Anybody want to update the vote? I have a cat on my lap and can't type well.

P.S. This is not a prissy white cat like Blofeld had so don't go getting any ideas.

Fern Forest

04-01-2007, 04:37 PM

We just need to come to a general consensus on whether we wish to start forcing confession/defense posts in order to drag information out of people...Oh, and yes. Please.

NAF1138

04-01-2007, 04:49 PM

You flipped Malacandra and hocow. Malacandra voted for hocow, hocow voted for Blaster Master.

--FCOD

DAMN! I will get this whole vote counting thing right. I am going to redo how I do my vote spreadsheet.

Also, JSexton will be taking over for Chrisk. But give him a day or two to catch up before he jumps into the game.

Lakai

04-01-2007, 04:55 PM

From the way JSexton payed the last game, lets hope chrisk wasn't mafia.

Hockey Monkey

04-01-2007, 04:56 PM

<snip>
I think these 4 goons need to be looked at,along with pimaspinner who defends all 4 of them in post 847.

Quoting my own post here:
glee – no alarms so far.
Winston Smith – other than casting the 10th vote for Enfant, I don’t find anything nefarious with Winston.
Pygmy Rugger – don’t see any suspicious behavior
Storyteller0910 – not a lot of posts to go on, no sirens here.

And just because someone hasn’t raised my suspicions, doesn’t mean I trust them.

I listed what I thought about every player in the game. Lots of others haven't pinged on my radar yet. I would hardly call that a defense. I mildly defended Winston in my analysis of Lakai when I said that I didn't think that he knew that his vote would immediately drop the hammer for the lynch.

NAF1138

04-01-2007, 05:00 PM

(1) Autolycus (Menocchio)
(4) Blaster Master (Queuing, brewha, hocow, pimaspinna)
(1) brewha (Monkey Mench)
(4) Chrisk/Jsexton (Winston Smith, FCoD, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach)
(1) Gadarene (Chrisk/Jsexton)
(1) hocow (Malacandra)
(7) Pleonast (Lakai, Kat, Suburban Plankton, Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Gadarene)
(2) Pygmy Rugger (zuma, MadTheSwine)
(3) Queuing (StarvingButStrong, nesta, Kivvik)
(1) Rysto (sturmhauke)

I am listing JSexton with chrisk for now until he comes in and changes the vote and/or votes are taken off of him.

Hockey Monkey

04-01-2007, 05:05 PM

storyteller0910, your point about CaerieD is taken. It does make sense that she would investigate a former player on the first night. It still doesn't change my mind about Blaster Master. He seems to be running the show with the sheer number of posts making him seem trustworthy.

Lakai

04-01-2007, 05:06 PM

Those three are glee,Winston Smith and storyteller0910.

I reviewed the thread starting at page 7.
The only one that said anything like he might be away was storyteller0910 and on top of that didn't really say he was going to be away,just not able to add in depth analysis(Post 590).

storyteller0910 and my beloved Winston Smith both voted for Enfant.

Winston trusts storyteller in post 457

The point is... Pygmy got his threads confused and posted things here that were said in the Mafia thread.

I think these 4 goons need to be looked at,along with pimaspinner who defends all 4 of them in post 847.

Unvote Pleonast

Vote Pygmy Rugger

I checked Winston's and Glee's posts and I did not see them say anything like this.

Pygmy Rugger, you should explain yourself.

MadTheSwine

04-01-2007, 05:10 PM

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-01-2007, 05:18 PM

I only see six votes forPleoanst.

Winston and Pygmy both are voting for chrisk
People voting for Pleonast: Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Gadarene, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton (6).

Pygmy, that comment is WAY more suspicious than chrisk's actions. Until you can explain yourself, I'm going to unvote chrisk, vote Pygmy Rugger.

--FCOD

chrisk

04-01-2007, 05:23 PM

Okay, best wishes for a good game to all, including JSexton.

There wasn't any one single and dramatic cause that made it completely impossible for me to continue, like a serious injury in the family or a job transfer to Somalia, but I'm grateful to our moderator NAF1138 for arranging things so smoothly. For anyone who's curious about my reasons for leaving, they basically boil down to two:

- I wasn't enjoying playing, largely because I was starting to feel very anxious over the perception that I was playing poorly and seemingly unable to convey anything at all in a way that was clear and inspired any kind of trust.

- The game has been moving quickly, generating a LOT of activity, and requiring a lot of time to keep up with, as I think everybody in it has probably noticed. The more I tried to come to terms with that, the more I kept coming up against the realization that this is a time that I actually want to be doping less, not more - and devoting more time and energy to other things like my job, writing, and spending time with family.

- Hi, Don Opal!

And with that... I bid you adieu.

chrisk

04-01-2007, 05:26 PM

PS: Please accept my apologies for noy being able to foresee any of the factors that left me feeling unable to continue before the game started.

Fern Forest

04-01-2007, 05:29 PM

Six votes for Pleonast (Lakai, Kat, Suburban Plankton, Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Gadarene)

It looks like MadTheSwine's vote was removed but the count wasn't changed. Well we do make it hard for him.

A request. When you create a hyperlink it's often colored blue, in fact I believe it's the default color. Please don't use people's names as the link. Rather use here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=8418394) or this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=8418394). Thank you.
~~~~~~~~
So long chrisk.

MadTheSwine

04-01-2007, 05:30 PM

Lakai

04-01-2007, 05:36 PM

Then don't join the game.You copped out and hurt the game. :mad:
Let it go, it's only a game. :)

Autolycus

04-01-2007, 05:36 PM

Then don't join the game.You copped out and hurt the game. :mad:

What's this game people's is talkin' bout? I lives here. Y'alls a buncha loons.

MadTheSwine

04-01-2007, 05:41 PM

Let it go, it's only a game. :)

Ok..sorry. Best of luck chrisk.

Kat

04-01-2007, 05:45 PM

Y'alls a buncha loons.

Hey, who told?! :D

storyteller0910

04-01-2007, 05:46 PM

OK, on the off chance that my reasoning above appealed to everyone, I went and did what I said I would do before; I compiled a list of all the people who have voted for sturmhauke,, chrisk, or Autolycus. This list follows. I make no attempt to pretend that it is definitive; reading through this thread looking for votes has made my head hurt.

VOTED FOR STURMHAUKE
Queuing
Menocchio – jumped (to Queuing)
Fern Forest
Aguecheek
CaerieD

VOTED FOR CHRISK
MadtheSwine
Rysto
FCOD
Pygmy Rugger
ArizonaTeach
Kat - unvoted
Lakai
Winston Smith

VOTED FOR AUTOLYCUS
Gadarene - jumped
FCOD
Malacandra - jumped
glee
Enfant Terrible
chrisk
Menocchio

Only two people appear on more than one of these lists: Mennocchio and FCOD. Of those two, Mennocchio was probably cleared by our detective (unless he is the Godfather, in which case we're a special kind of screwed, but what are the odds?). FCOD also voted for Enfant Terrible.

I'm not in love with the reasoning behind all this, because it relies on the assumption that sturm,, Auto, and chrisk are all townies of one flavor or another. All the same, in the interest of keeping an eye on everyone, and not just those two or three who happen to be at the head of the suspicion parade for this particular day, I'm going to -

vote FlyingCowofDoom

StarvingButStrong

04-01-2007, 05:56 PM

People voting for Pleonast: Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Gadarene, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton (6).

Pygmy, that comment is WAY more suspicious than chrisk's actions. Until you can explain yourself, I'm going to unvote chrisk, vote Pygmy Rugger.

--FCOD

Wow. This really does seem a good catch. I won't switch votes at the moment (to spare things for the GM) but I join in the call for a GOOOOD explanation from Pygmy.

ArizonaTeach

04-01-2007, 06:04 PM

Ok, the fact that I am now in a voting bloc with Pygmy and Winston gives me the heebs. Damn.

Unvote chrisk/JSexton.

I'll re-cast my vote tonight.

Lakai

04-01-2007, 06:07 PM

I'm not in love with the reasoning behind all this, because it relies on the assumption that sturm,, Auto, and chrisk are all townies of one flavor or another. [/COLOR]
No kidding.

Any reason you think Sturm, Auto and chrisk are townies? One way to find out is to hang Blaster Master or Pleonast, who have both expressed their trust of chrisk and their approval of his Open Detection System.

Hanging FlyingCowOfDoom won't gain us much. If he is scum it will help, but if he's town then we have nothing. If Pleonast turns out to be town, then I would have to rethink my whole approach to the game. If he is mafia, I'm going after Blaster Master and then Sturmhauke, who he defended.

The only concrete evidence we gain will come from dead bodies. We need to choose one that will give us the most.

glee

04-01-2007, 06:08 PM

Sorry I haven't posted for a while - real life got in the way. :eek:
I didn't post any warning about this though (as you can see from the thread).

I continue to believe that Autolycus is best out of the game - as Zuma put it neatly:

My view on Autolycus is that he's either:

1. a townie completely shitting all over this game
2. mafia playing his role openly either to rub it in our faces how long he's lasted, or to do the big double-bluff.

However it does seem a good idea to ask the Vig to deal with him. As Autolycus doesn't appear to post anything worthwhile, he won't mount any informational defence.
Now if JSexton has taken over from ChrisK, we should get something interesting.

So lynch ChrisK

and please will someone* save the thread from any more depressing Autolycus posts!

*If not the Vig, could SK do us all a favour...

Fern Forest

04-01-2007, 06:16 PM

Wow. This really does seem a good catch. I won't switch votes at the moment (to spare things for the GM) but I join in the call for a GOOOOD explanation from Pygmy.
I'm going to say ditto.

If not the Vig, could SK do us all a favour...I'll in fact ask both of them to target him in case one gets blocked. And for the GA to not protect him. If we get only 1 kill at night and he survives then we'll know something. But I suspect we'll be pleased.

Menocchio

04-01-2007, 06:19 PM

I still don't see that Auto's presence here could do anything but help the town, but i do think we're on to something better than my personal distaste here:

unvote Autolycus
Vote Pygmy Rugger

Autolycus

04-01-2007, 06:22 PM

However it does seem a good idea to ask the Vig to deal with him. As Autolycus doesn't appear to post anything worthwhile, he won't mount any informational defence.

. . .

*If not the Vig, could SK do us all a favour...

I's begs to differ. Maybe I 'aint some pro at analyzations like youz guys, but I'ms contributin' lately like. I's admit math aint my style, see, but I'm helpin' in my own way. Not me's fault if ya is too dumb to recogsnize it.

If ya asks me, I think you're just tryin' to off me and save the mafia the pleasure. Ands besides, I still thinks a man should do 'im owns dirty work too. Kids these days gots no sense of ethic like stuff.

Geez I got me's a bad feeling about tonight. Anyone's sellin' life insurance?

NAF1138

04-01-2007, 06:23 PM

You know, I never thought counting would be so hard.

I am going to hold off on doing another vote count until I rethink my method for keeping track of the votes, because clearly it is majorly flawed. I should have the next vote count up by tomorrow night. Until then, Pleonast is still in the lead...um use MtS's most recent vote count as the last official one.

Autolycus

04-01-2007, 06:24 PM

I still don't see that Auto's presence here could do anything but help the town, but i do think we're on to something better than my personal distaste here:

:dubious:

Hockey Monkey

04-01-2007, 06:29 PM

Sorry I haven't posted for a while - real life got in the way. :eek:
I didn't post any warning about this though (as you can see from the thread).

I continue to believe that Autolycus is best out of the game - as Zuma put it neatly:

However it does seem a good idea to ask the Vig to deal with him. As Autolycus doesn't appear to post anything worthwhile, he won't mount any informational defence.
Now if JSexton has taken over from ChrisK, we should get something interesting.

So lynch ChrisK <edited color tag>

and please will someone* save the thread from any more depressing Autolycus posts!

*If not the Vig, could SK do us all a favour...

Um, not real sure how you figure we'll get information from lynching chrisk/jsexton. chrisk hasn't posted anything that I think we would find useful, and jsexton hasn't posted anything yet. I'm sure he is about ears deep in the thread though. This is highly suspicious, and makes you scum in my eyes now. I don't think I need to change my vote now...we can lynch you soon enough.

storyteller0910

04-01-2007, 06:31 PM

No kidding.

Any reason you think Sturm, Auto and chrisk are townies? One way to find out is to hang Blaster Master or Pleonast, who have both expressed their trust of chrisk and their approval of his Open Detection System.

Well, my reasoning behind believing sturmhauke is town I outlined on Day 1, but I don't blame you if you don't want to search for it. Basically, I think he got piled on Day 1 with absolutely no evidence against him. One or two random votes for someone with no basis behind them doesn't really tell us much, but a big push to lynch someone with no evidence smells scummy to me. If scum are pushing to kill someone, it seems de facto evidence that the someone is question is not scum.

Autolycus is either town or the worst Mafia player ever.

Finally, I have no solid reason for viewing chrisk/JSexton to be town, other than that chrisk's posts in this thread have read much more like confused and frustrated townie than like a master manipulator. Read his reasons for leaving the game again - if taken at face value, don't they sound a lot more like someone sorry he can't help his team than someone who's Master Plan was unfolding exactly as he'd hoped?

Hanging FlyingCowOfDoom won't gain us much. If he is scum it will help, but if he's town then we have nothing. If Pleonast turns out to be town, then I would have to rethink my whole approach to the game. If he is mafia, I'm going after Blaster Master and then Sturmhauke, who he defended.

Well, hanging FCOD gains us something if he's scum. It is true that if I'm wrong, we gain nothing. Bears thinking about. Because of our experience last Day, though, I'm still not comfortable voting anywhere in the vicinity of Pleonast until he's had a chance to speak in his own defense.

storyteller0910

04-01-2007, 06:35 PM

Wow. This really does seem a good catch. I won't switch votes at the moment (to spare things for the GM) but I join in the call for a GOOOOD explanation from Pygmy.

Well, hell. I'm so wrapped up in my own line of investigation that this blew past me the first time through.

For the record, I did post on this thread that I'd be away until late last night (I was working on my mother-in-law's barbershop chorus show - seriously - all day yesterday). The others, I don't know about.

I'll wait to change my vote until I hear Pygmy's explanation, but this might be the best lead we've seen so far. Nice catch, Mad.

Kat

04-01-2007, 06:38 PM

Pygmy, that comment is WAY more suspicious than chrisk's actions. Until you can explain yourself, I'm going to unvote chrisk, vote Pygmy Rugger.

--FCOD
(uncolored quote to avoid vote-confusion)

Other than the aforementioned comment, Pygmy Rugger's activity so far is:
-vote for chrisk (JSexton)
-a bunch of drinking posts

That looks like it's about it. Unless I completely missed it, he didn't contribute to the Day One discussion at all. That by itself is excusable, since the day's end caught everyone by surprise.

I'm happy with my vote for Pleonast right now, but I also think Pygmy needs to explain himself.

Hockey Monkey

04-01-2007, 07:15 PM

JSexton

04-01-2007, 07:36 PM

Hi, folks. I've been skimming along the last week, but I need to start over with a deep re-read. That'll come tomorrow. unvote in the meantime.

Also, pima, how about you let Pygmy answer for him/herself?

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-01-2007, 07:38 PM

Vote count:

Pleonast - 6 (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Gadarene, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton)
Blaster Master - 4 (brewha, hocow, pimaspinner, Queuing)
Pygmy Rugger - 4 (FlyingCowOfDoom, MadTheSwine, Menocchio, Zuma)
chrisk/JSexton - 3 (glee, Pygmy Rugger, Winston Smith)
Queuing - 3 (kivvik, nesta, StarvingButStrong)
Menocchio - 1 (Autolycus)
Gadarene - 1 (chrisk/JSexton)
hocow - 1 (Malacandra)
brewha - 1 (MonkeyMensch)
Rysto - 1 (sturmhauke)

I still don't know what I did to arouse your suspicion, pimaspinner. I assure you, I'm not scum. I switched to Pygmy Rugger quickly because I wanted to make sure to catch his attention. I really don't think one vote can be considered a bandwagon...

--FCOD

Fern Forest

04-01-2007, 07:40 PM

... I need to start over with a deep re-read. That'll come tomorrow...
So we can expect you start posting sometime next week then?

Hockey Monkey

04-01-2007, 07:59 PM

Autolycus

04-01-2007, 08:00 PM

Pygmy Rugger did say IIRC. Maybe he didn't. He also voiced reservations about Blaster Master a little before that post. MadTheSwine may have just picked up on an honest mistake. FCOD jumped right in to get the wheels of the wagon turning. Since I think FCOD is scum (as does storyteller0910), it leads me to believe that Pygmy is innocent. Menocchio has also chimed in with a vote for Pygmy, and now if I have counted correctly, he is up to 4 votes. Pygmy, please come defend yourself.

This post stinks more's than a fish in heat. Why's you be'n so damn nice to Pygmy, defendsdin' 'is innocence and sayin' please 'n shit? Sounds likes youz two'z could be in tha club, if ya gets my drift. To quote's a favorite show I watch and stuff: "not that there's anything wrong with that"

Suburban Plankton

04-01-2007, 08:15 PM

Hi, folks. I've been skimming along the last week, but I need to start over with a deep re-read. That'll come tomorrow. unvote in the meantime.
I'm unclear on what you mean here.

Are you telling us that you are unvoting Gadarene, whom chrisk voted for several hundred posts ago?
Or are you asking us to unvote you until you have a chance to catch up with your reading?

Regarding Pygmy Rugger, some of you folks must do even more thorough documentation of the thread than I do, because that slip-up slid right past me. I find it Very Interesting, but I'm not changing my vote for Pleonast just yet. (Partially because he has yet to re-enter the thread to defend himself, and I'm fairly certain that he didn't announce that he would be gone for a few days.)

One thing I did notice is that Autolycus suddenly seems to be all over the place, and actually has something to say, if I'm translating his posts properly. They do add a bit of color to the proceedings.

Fern Forest

04-01-2007, 08:35 PM

So I've been out "stalking" people in the pic thread. dnooman's apparantly some type of musician (http://www.flickr.com/photos/7136612@N03/405081422/), no wonder they offed him so quickly. hocow is to cute (http://i166.photobucket.com/albums/u114/hocow/stuff-35--.jpg)not to kill. She might be one of those Mata Hari types. And Autolycus well it's weird. Sometimes he seems no nice (http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o57/BC_Autolycus/Random%20Pics%20of%20Me/HPIM0386small.jpg) and other times so evil (http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o57/BC_Autolycus/Random%20Pics%20of%20Me/HPIM0361small.jpg). Or is it vice-versa?

I'm (http://www.mywikigenealogy.com/mediawiki-1.7.1/images/4/42/OsirisandEliana.jpg) loved by small children. Or have I freightened her? I forget.

Warning, there's no actual gaming taking place in this post. Just thought it'd be neat to put faces to people.

Fern Forest

04-01-2007, 08:39 PM

Are you telling us that you are unvoting Gadarene, whom chrisk voted for several hundred posts ago?
I do believe that's what was meant. It would make sense.

Of course it would also suck to finally get caught up only to get lynched. Seeing as how we have people who don't feel right to us it might be nice to give our sub at least one day of the game after putting so much work into reading this thread. And we can always lynch JSexton tomorrow if we feel it necessary.

Rysto

04-01-2007, 08:40 PM

I very much want to here JSexton's thoughts before we lynch anybody. We have lots of time.

Gadarene

04-01-2007, 09:32 PM

Blaster Master

04-01-2007, 10:27 PM

I very much want to here JSexton's thoughts before we lynch anybody. We have lots of time.

I agree with this. It is only fair to allow him a full re-read before anyone is placed up on the chopping block for a role-claim/defense.

Autolycus

04-01-2007, 10:45 PM

[RolePlay=Off]

So I've been out "stalking" people in the pic thread. dnooman's apparantly some type of musician (http://www.flickr.com/photos/7136612@N03/405081422/), no wonder they offed him so quickly. hocow is to cute (http://i166.photobucket.com/albums/u114/hocow/stuff-35--.jpg)not to kill. She might be one of those Mata Hari types. And Autolycus well it's weird. Sometimes he seems no nice (http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o57/BC_Autolycus/Random%20Pics%20of%20Me/HPIM0386small.jpg) and other times so evil (http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o57/BC_Autolycus/Random%20Pics%20of%20Me/HPIM0361small.jpg). Or is it vice-versa?
.

WTF, how did you find my photobucket account? :eek: Not that I mind, but I thought it was a secret! Damn me for having such a recognizable username ><

Ok, back to the game.

[RolePlay=On]

Fern Forest

04-01-2007, 11:04 PM

[RolePlay=Off]WTF, how did you find my photobucket account? :eek: Not that I mind, but I thought it was a secret! Damn me for having such a recognizable username ><

Ok, back to the game.[RolePlay=On]
Sorry I just clicked on your links in the pic thread and they were broken. I just took off the end, figuring that was the broken part, and reloaded. Then I clicked on "pics of me." Figured that was what you were linking too. Didn't mean to go anywhere I wasn't supposed to.

nesta

04-01-2007, 11:22 PM

Just a note, but there's a few posts with the wrong numbers in Lakai's list of CaerieD posts in post 845 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418112&postcount=845). The link that says it's to post 445 is actually to post 425, and 476 is to 478.

It's a small thing, but I just wanted to save anyone the few seconds of confusion it caused me. Thanks for the list of posts Lakai, it saved me some time.

JSexton

04-01-2007, 11:48 PM

I'm unclear on what you mean here.

Are you telling us that you are unvoting Gadarene, whom chrisk voted for several hundred posts ago?
Or are you asking us to unvote you until you have a chance to catch up with your reading?
The latter. Since I don't know why chrisk voted Gadarene, it's silly to leave the vote there. I may place it there again after I re-read, of course.
So we can expect you start posting sometime next week then?
Next week, meaning Monday? Um, yeah, I suppose so. That's still only tomorrow though.

JSexton

04-01-2007, 11:50 PM

Er, that was supposed to say "the former", not "the latter". I hope that was obvious from context.

"Sorry! The administrator has specified that users can only post one message every 60 seconds."

Curse you, administrator!

Rysto

04-01-2007, 11:53 PM

Next week, meaning Monday? Um, yeah, I suppose so. That's still only tomorrow though.
He was joking that it'll take you a week to get through the entire thread.

JSexton

04-02-2007, 12:06 AM

He was joking that it'll take you a week to get through the entire thread.
Oh, well, piffle.You should see some of the games I've played in another sites. They regularly top 4000 posts. Heck, one game hit 1500 posts before day one ended....

Autolycus

04-02-2007, 12:13 AM

Oh, well, piffle.You should see some of the games I've played in another sites. They regularly top 4000 posts. Heck, one game hit 1500 posts before day one ended....

Shit's balls, I hopes this dudes on my side!

Blaster Master

04-02-2007, 12:38 AM

Oh, well, piffle.You should see some of the games I've played in another sites. They regularly top 4000 posts. Heck, one game hit 1500 posts before day one ended....

I imagine, if day one hadn't ended early, we very well could have gotten close to that. :D

Santo Rugger

04-02-2007, 12:43 AM

I was out doing yardwork all day (and got A LOT of stuff accomplished, I might add. Now that I'm back, I'm going to re-read the thread (I was hoping I wasn't going to have to do that) looking for the posts in which I thought a few players said they were going to be away for the weekend. Wish me luck!

Autolycus

04-02-2007, 12:50 AM

nesta

04-02-2007, 01:02 AM

I was hoping Queuing would check in today to hear his defense, but I guess he wasn't able to make it back to the computer like he hoped he would.

I've been contemplating switching my vote so I reviewed some of the posts that originally made me cast it for Queuing in the first place.

I cast it because I think it's obvious that Menocchio was CaerieD's breadcrumb, and I remembered Queuing and then Gadarene saying that no, it was Blaster Master. After looking through all CaerieD's posts, I stand by the fact that the breadcrumb was for trusting Menocchio.

In post 296 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405880&postcount=296) she says:

Rysto - Not a bad strategy. If everyone starts tossing out their "investigations" it'll be completely useless until one of the people who's posted "investigations" has been killed. Once Cops start getting killed, those seemingly useless bits of information will suddenly be a treasure trove.
This makes me believe that she, the Detective, was endorsing the idea and planned to put her breadcrumbs in her trust/mistrust list. In her very next post (post 326 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406256&postcount=326)) she posts just such a list, with only one name on each side:

Trust: Menocchio.

Distrust: Enfant Terrible. There are just lots of different things that are adding up to make me suspicious. I'm somewhat suspicious of Autolycus, too, but I can't tell if he's scum and baiting or just really sadistic.
We already know Enfant Terrible was a civilian, so that only leaves trusting Menocchio. If she endorsed posting breadcrumbs in trust lists, and then posts one the very next post, it strongly suggests that this was her breadcrumb. She didn't post anything at all about Blaster Master until post 478 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408888&postcount=478):

My mistrust of Blaster Master is one of several reasons why I decided against voting for Enfant Terrible. There's just something a little overly gung-ho there, when there's no particular reason to be quite that impassioned. It made me think Mafia trying to turn us against one another and so I couldn't go with his endorsement.
This isn't even in the trust list format that she had already endorsed. I don't think this can be her breadcrumb.

Also of note is that CaerieD didn't vote for Blaster Master like you might expect from a Detective who knows someone is scum. Instead she voted with Menocchio for sturmhauke. This seems very consistent with her knowing that Menochhio was a civilian. What better way to make sure you aren't falling into a Mafia bandwagon than to vote with someone you know isn't on their side?

That's my argument for why we shouldn't suspect Blaster Master because of CaerieD's distrust of him. I can't decide myself if I entirely trust him or not. He could be scum, or maybe he isn't, but CaerieD's distrust shouldn't factor into it at all.

Now on review Queuing didn't outright say that Blaster Master was the breadcrumb. I think this long, long thread has confused me a little. What he did say about it was in post 581 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8413965&postcount=581) and post 679 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415358&postcount=679), where he says to Blaster Master:
Yes you are missing something. You were on our fair detective's mistrust list. You are scum IMO, and must die.
I didn't quote post 581 because it was mostly him quoting Blaster Master, but the relevant part worth mentioning is his quote of post 388 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407700&postcount=388):

After some more re-reads, here's another update of who is suspicious to me

Trust: Rysto, Lakai, Storyteller0910, chrisk (but only for today, if he stops posting his investigations, he goes right to my mistrust list)
Mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Queuing, CaerieD, Autolycus, MonkeyMensch

Thus, I would say we should lynch Enfant, the VIG should kill Queuing, and the SK should kill CaerieD.

I have a gut on a couple of the other roles too, but it's obviously not to our benefit to air those suspicions.
Queuing then says at the end of post 581 that his vote for Blaster Master was because of the SK comment:

Either one of these 2 people is fine by me. We lynch either Sturmhauke or Blaster Master.

Since I don't know how much I will be able to post this weekend (and the growth of this thread), I vote to <attempted color>lynch Blaster Master<attempted color>.

This is because of his SK comment.
My question to you Queuing is do you still think Blaster Master was CaerieD's breadcrumb? If so, can you defend that? If you still want to cast doubt that Menocchio was the breadcrumb but don't have a really good reason I like my vote.

zuma

04-02-2007, 01:19 AM

Thank you for posting that, Nesta. I found it very strange as well that there were suggestions that her breadcrumb was someone else, when it seemed so obvious.

Santo Rugger

04-02-2007, 01:53 AM

Ok, it looks like MTS was right, glee and WS didn't say they were going to be out, and storyteller only said he was not going to be giving in-depth analysis. However, the following quotes are from the past 48 hours. If I go back faurther (especially around the time the game started), I'd be sure to find many more:

Ughs, I hads me a hard day's night yesterday. A killa 12 hour shift thens a night on the town with me's buds. <snip>

After quickly skimming everything since the day started:<snip>

I am going to be going out for several hours.<snip>

Holy crap! 2 Votes! Sorry for the little contribution. I was out of town the last couple of days (just away from the comp actually, but trying to stay in character). <snip>

<snip>
Just in case I don't get to check in again before the lynching...

Procrastination... much more fun than working on my term projects and/or work. Either of which is what I'm supposed to be doing. :D
<snip>

<snip>
I'm going to be out of town with only sporadic Internet access over the next few days, by the way; I'll try to check in on this thread when I can, but I don't know how often that will be, so don't be surprised if it takes me a while to react to new developments.

Yeah.I dread a subbed in player having read the thread,that said,I am going to bed.

<snip>
If we keep going at this pace, I'm going to have to ask work for a leave of absence.

And these (for the most part) don't include people who said they were going to catch up now that they're back, or posted an initial gut feeling after only skimming the thread. I've been doing my best to follow this thread carefully, and when I made the offhand comment that those three players had said they were gone, I'm sure I just assumed since three players hadn't voted yet, it must have been the three that said in advance that they weren't going to be here.

Also, going back to my "suspicious" post, It was posted only two minutes after Fern's post that showed everybody's most recent posts. I am not taking notes on this game, and merely assumed that those players must have been out for a day or two.

Santo Rugger

04-02-2007, 02:09 AM

A quick scan of the "Family Feud" game thread, which I'm also a part of, also reveals these posts:

<snip>It's only just begun but I must call it quits for now.

A business emergency sent me to <snip>

:: pant pant pant ::

Sorry I'm late guys. Go Red Team! I'm coming up with my answers for the steal.

Great. Now I'm the one busy. Sorry players. : / Just have a lot of work and stuff this week. <snip>
Sorry so much for the delay and the, now, busy-ness. <snip>

One of us should officially guess so hopefully I can maybe play before I go on spring break tomorrow and am on the net less. Not it! :)

<snip>I'm going to be away from early Saturday morning 31/03 until late Friday night 6/04. No possibility of contact in between those two dates.

Just an FYI for the Blue Team - I am going out of town tomorrow at 1:00 PM and won't be back until Saturday night. So if we get to a second round of guessing, don't wait for me!

Just to add to the posts of people with away messages.

Fern Forest

04-02-2007, 02:13 AM

*Glances over Pygmy's posts*

OK

Lakai

04-02-2007, 02:25 AM

*blinks*

What does the Family Feud thread have to do with this one? Are you saying you might have gotten a few threads mixed up?

Blaster Master

04-02-2007, 02:35 AM

My question to you Queuing is do you still think Blaster Master was CaerieD's breadcrumb? If so, can you defend that? If you still want to cast doubt that Menocchio was the breadcrumb but don't have a really good reason I like my vote.

You've done a better job laying out the suspiciousness of his reasoning than I did. Further, I want to add that while Queuing didn't explicitly say that CaerieD's distrust of me was her breadcrumb, Gadarenedid (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415389&postcount=686). I strongly suspect both are scum, and at this point would be perfectly happy to vote to lynch either of them. I would also suspect that if one of them is lynched today and shows up as scum, because they're both using the same horrific reasoning, the other won't live through the night.

Santo Rugger

04-02-2007, 02:38 AM

*blinks*

What does the Family Feud thread have to do with this one? Are you saying you might have gotten a few threads mixed up?

No, I'm saying that quite a few people, IRL and on the boards, have said they were going to be gone for the weekend, or have let me know they've just gotten back. Since a bunch of people on the SDMB and a bunch of people IRL were going to be gone for the weekend, I figured those three happened to be three that were gone for a day or two and had said something to that effect beforehand.

Blaster Master

04-02-2007, 02:39 AM

You've done a better job laying out the suspiciousness of his reasoning than I did. Further, I want to add that while Queuing didn't explicitly say that CaerieD's distrust of me was her breadcrumb, Gadarene did in post #686 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415389&postcount=686). I strongly suspect both are scum, and at this point would be perfectly happy to vote to lynch either of them. I would also suspect that if one of them is lynched today and shows up as scum, because they're both using the same horrific reasoning, the other won't live through the night.
Oops, I didn't make the link stick out very well. In staying with the rules, I won't edit the post directly, so above is more like what I wanted it to look like.

glee

04-02-2007, 02:53 AM

First, this might have been covered earlier, but can I check with NAF1138:

The rules say the SK wins if the game ends with the SK still playing, right?

So if there are 10 Mafia, 9 Citizens and the SK left, the game ends because there are as many Mafia as Town. But the Mafia lose because the SK is still playing, yes?

If that's true, could the Mafia please stop killing Citizens when the count is close!

Next, thanks to Lakai for summarising CaerieD’s posts.
Unfortunately she made a mistake in post 326 by only naming two people in her trust / mistrust list and thus made herself a likely bet for the Detective.
And I am certain that Menocchio = Town was her tell.
Now given that only two people were killed that night, I think both the Mafia AND the SK went for CaerieD (since the Detective is by far the greatest danger to both of them).

Just in case Autolycus is the Vig :eek: or the SK :smack: , could both please target him?

[quote=Suburban plankton]
One thing I did notice is that Autolycus suddenly seems to be all over the place, and actually has something to say, if I'm translating his posts properly. They do add a bit of color to the proceedings.

Autolycus
Unnnghhh... I've got a hangover the size of Trump's ego. People kept on buying for me, not that I blame them.
What's this? Three people dead? Eh, my brother said they all had it coming to them. Me and my brother dont see eye to eye too much, but we respect each other and that's that. If you cant trust your family, who can you is what I's say.
Who do I think axed 'em? I dunno, but I got my eye on that Blaster Master. If he's as evil as his namesake, then he'd have no problem pulling the trigger.
What's this game people's is talkin' bout? I lives here. Y'alls a buncha loons.
Quote
Only a stupid mobster would talk like a mobster, see? You would think that, right. But he would know that you think you know that, see? So a smart mobster would pretend to talk like a mobster so that everyone would think he was actually only pretending to be a mobster, see? But them's not the only options. He could only be pretending to be a smart mobster that's pretending to talk like a mobster to fool people into thinking he's not a mobster, but he actually is a mobster pretending to engage everyone in some clever double talk, see? Dont forget he could actually be stupid and blowing his cover, ya never knows. For all we's know, he could be just some dumb kid muckin' up the works.
While you're thinkins that over, I gotta take a trip to the docks and meet my friend Vinnie. He's got a nice catch of fish comin' in thats needs inspectins'
quote
I just gots back from my friend Vinny at the dock helpin' 'im investigate his shipment of tuna, see if anything smells fishy about it, and ya knows, it's likes I's always say: ya gotta trust your guts. Course, it goes withouts sayin that somethin stinks in this here town. But hey, I'm stayins even ifs it means the death of me.
If anyones needs me, I'll be at The Bearded Clam nursin' a Bloody Mary.
quote
Barkeep, another bloody mary please. I gots this big headache and gotta goes to work soon and these loud peoples wont stop yammerin' about some crime problem. I'ms as sad as anyones that peoples were murdered, but every towns has crime right, so what's the big fat hairy deal? If ya asks me, everyone should minds their own business.
quote
What's you talkin about blue-face? I always been talkin' like this. You thinks I'm a mafia, wells that's your own business. Mama always saids to mind your own business. Ya know, this heres my hometown. I's been part of this god-forsaken rat-hole since befores you left yer mama's blood box. You think this is an act? I'd shows you an act, and theres wont be an encore, but what the fuck, I'm willins to let by-gones be's by-gones. A punk likes you 'aint worth my time.
quote
Cazzata! I's wakes up after a hard days work, and whats do I's see? A fuckin lynch mob at my doorstep. Mama always saids I weres a popular boy...

Heys youz guys, I gots nothings to explain. I 'aint never killed nobodys.

Infischiarsi! Believe whats ya want, dont bothers me none, I's just wish youz didnt wake me up so violent-like, ya bunch of ceffos.
quote
Makes me tough guy. I 'aint give a shit about no "mafia" see? Peoples die every day, dont mean it mean somethin' You's dont like it, then maybes you dont belong in this town.
Ya know, ya seem suspicious to me, but I'ms a non-violent type. So leaves me the fuck alone, capiche?
quote
Dont strains too many brain cells on my account
quote
It's too's quiet if ya asks me. Giving me's the willies, that's what it's doin' Ya know, this town's rotten, and it 'aint the veggietables.
quote
Ughs, I hads me a hard day's night yesterday. A killa 12 hour shift thens a night on the town with me's buds. Its was fun and shit, but on the way home I gots me into a fistfight! Me versus six guys. Got my ass handed to me, sads to say. Too much pasta and nots enough exercise, me mom always says. Oh well, right. I gots my pulse so no big whoopy.
More murders in this town, go fig eh? This fuckin' town gets worse by the day. Pretty soons it coulds be all mafia, so then what'll 'ey do, rob and murders each otha? A shitty situation for everyones is what I say.
I hear a lynch mob outside my window last night, fuckin' woke me up and everythin' If the town's gonna start murderins people too, then this damn place reallys has lost it They kepts chantin' over and over, "kill the mafia," "kill the mafia" but the poor bum they killed wasn't even in the god damn mafia. Buncha maroons. Anyways, word in town is that everyone wants to know who is clean and who aint' Peoples been comin up to me and askin my opinion. I's tell 'em to screw 'emself. Shit, I knows too well tha proverb: "the neck thats sticks out gets chopped off" All I'm gonna says is that Blaster Master and Chrisk give me the creepers. You wants an esplanation, youz better be buyin' a lotta booze. haha
quote
That's a wicked scummy things to say. What, you'z too chicken to off me ya'self? You got some guts, askin' somebody to do you'z dirty works. I dont knows nothin' 'bout that Pleonast bum, but if ya gonna targets me, at least spell my fuckin' name right, ok?
quote

I's begs to differ. Maybe I 'aint some pro at analyzations like youz guys, but I'ms contributin' lately like. I's admit math aint my style, see, but I'm helpin' in my own way. Not me's fault if ya is too dumb to recogsnize it.

If ya asks me, I think you're just tryin' to off me and save the mafia the pleasure. Ands besides, I still thinks a man should do 'im owns dirty work too. Kids these days gots no sense of ethic like stuff.

Geez I got me's a bad feeling about tonight. Anyone's sellin' life insurance?
Quote
Shit's balls, I hopes this dudes on my side!
Quote
Watch outs for tha lynch mob too. You aint too populars lately-like.
Quote

glee

04-02-2007, 03:00 AM

kivvik

04-02-2007, 03:06 AM

Sorry about any incoherence in the last post - I submitted before previewing, then remembered we're not allowed to edit. :smack:

Actually it's not so bad - I was going to put each Autolychus post in quotes, but simply put the word quote after each one.
As you see, he's stuck in loads of posts, packed full of ... nothing. If all 38 players had done that, how long would it take to reread the thread?

Or a bunch of posts with clues hidden in roleplaying form. Diamonds(well, not -that- good) aren't hidden in plain sight, you know? Gotta go through a lot of dirt to get to them. I think he's dropped a few hints here and there, although some of his posts are certainly just fluff. I'm reading his antics and hints two ways though, and can't get a handle on which one I think is more likely. Or if I'm even on the right track.

I hesitantly say that he is harmless to us, possibly beneficial. Or bonkers, or as mafia as his lingo. It's hard enough for me to read real life conversations, let alone text filtered through role playing. :smack:

Autolycus

04-02-2007, 03:10 AM

Sorry about any incoherence in the last post - I submitted before previewing, then remembered we're not allowed to edit. :smack:

Actually it's not so bad - I was going to put each Autolychus post in quotes, but simply put the word quote after each one.
As you see, he's stuck in loads of posts, packed full of ... nothing. If all 38 players had done that, how long would it take to reread the thread?

Ya missed the part where's I voted, and some others where I brokes my code and opened my trap about who's I think is who. But heys, whateva makes you sleep well at night. I'ds keep one eye open though, got it?

Speaking of sleep and stuff, I'm agonna gets some shuteye. I got work and shit, I donts have the time to be goin' and lynchin' people like most this town's doin lately. Fuckin' crazy shit ins my opinion.

Fern Forest

04-02-2007, 03:26 AM

He did vote for Menocchio after Menocchio voted for him. Although Menocchio has since unvoted him.

Pleonast - 6 (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Gadarene, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton)
Blaster Master - 4 (brewha, hocow, pimaspinner, Queuing)
Pygmy Rugger - 4 (FlyingCowOfDoom, MadTheSwine, Menocchio, Zuma)
chrisk/JSexton - 3 (glee, Pygmy Rugger, Winston Smith)
Queuing - 3 (kivvik, nesta, StarvingButStrong)
Menocchio - 1 (Autolycus)
hocow - 1 (Malacandra)
brewha - 1 (MonkeyMensch)
Rysto - 1 (sturmhauke)

I think we need sturmhauke, MonkeyMensch, Malacandra and Autolycus to reevaluate who they're voting for. Unless JSexton comes backwith a stunning revelation how about Pleonast, Pygmy Rugger, Blaster Master and Queuing for the finals.

I again suggest we give JSexton a 24 hour window of death free game play since he did go to the trouble of catching up. This means you too Mafia. We should have enough people that we suspect that it wont actually make a difference whether he dies with the next 24h game cycle or the one after. That would mean that glee, Pygmy Rugger and Winston Smith need to come up with new votes as well.

And we still need votes from Aguecheek, ArizonaTeach, Blaster Master, Pleonast, Rysto, smitty and Storyteller0910. And we'll certainly get JSexton's vote tomorrow. I'm not saying anyone has to hurry up just noting who's doing what at this moment.

That's my thinking. I'm heading to bed and expect a hundred posts to read before work when I get up.

zuma

04-02-2007, 03:29 AM

I think he's dropped a few hints here and there, although some of his posts are certainly just fluff. I'm reading his antics and hints two ways though, and can't get a handle on which one I think is more likely. Or if I'm even on the right track.

A few hints? He's been beating us over the head with his "I'm mob!" for a while. Heck, in his last post he just said he was against lynches.

Again, vig, please handle the Autolycus situation. And the SK, pretty please.

kivvik

04-02-2007, 04:23 AM

A few hints? He's been beating us over the head with his "I'm mob!" for a while. Heck, in his last post he just said he was against lynches.

Again, vig, please handle the Autolycus situation. And the SK, pretty please.

Speaking like a mobster does not mean one is a mobster. I meant hints as to other things, more game related. He could still be a mobster, but it's not my read of him.

413 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418046&postcount=840) , 414 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408219&postcount=414) and 840 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418046&postcount=840) . Those are the ones where I *think* there might be some hints. How you read them is up to you. And if there turn out to be no hints, then dang it, I'm gonna feel so stupid. (On the bright side, I did figure out how to put in links to things in the process of this post.)

zuma

04-02-2007, 05:03 AM

Well, like I said before, if he had the town's best interest at heart we would not have to parse all his hints and what not. He's either town crapping on the game, or scum playing a weird game. I think it's the latter.

zuma

04-02-2007, 07:06 AM

Boy this is difficult pouring through all this info. I think future days will be a bit easier once identities are revealed and alignments become clearer.

I'm thinking Queuing and Chrisk/JSexton are on the same side, and they're on the wrong one. Pimaspinner and his/her constant questioning of the obvious Menocchio breadcrumb is also bothering me.

Telling posts upon my re-read:

Day 2 dawns and Rysto posts his rather damning evidence against chrisk/JSexton in 589 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414145&postcount=589)

chrisk posts a weak response in 597 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414234&postcount=597), claiming that this was due to his being over-excited on day 1. On the re-read, he also tried to defend his night-time vote against the cooling-off period:

Okay, Rysto

When it came to the cooling down period... I guess it came down as 'bitten then shy'. I felt bad over having blurted out a foolish scheme so quickly, so I was hesitating before chiming in on suggesting a rule change. Trying to show some caution. Oh well.

If he was so shy about it, why chime in at all? Especially with everyone else overwhelmingly in favor of it?

Queuing, who has been defending and trusting chrisk all this time, comes in after the Rysto charge against chrisk, keeps him on his trust lists, and maintains his vote on blaster master in 599 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414282&postcount=599). I'd have at least taken chrisk off the trust list at that point.

Pimaspinner makes a rather weird attack on FCOD and starts what will become a continuing denial that Menocchio was the breadcrumb in 629 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414635&postcount=629)..

Queuing comes in on 687 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415390&postcount=687) stoking the blaster master fires and again stating his trust of chrisk, a regular feature in his posting history.

Blaster Master is in full defense mode right now, and it's starting to be suggested that he was the actual breadcrumb. Pima again chirps that he/she does not think Menocchio was the bc. 701 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415603&postcount=701)

Pimaspinner again puts forward the dubious argument that Blaster Master is the true breadcrumb in 712 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415741&postcount=712) and 723 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415961&postcount=723).

I've repeated some of Nesta's analysis, and I'm tending to agree with a lot of Nesta's conclusions. Until tonight's read Pimaspinner had not really been showing up on my radar, but now I think Pimaspinner, along with Queuing and chrisk/JSexton are a mafia axis of evil trying to steer the bandwagon towards Blaster Master and others, using lame reasoning such as "CaerieD's true breadcrumb wasn't Menocchio it was Blaster Master" to steer suspicion away from chrisk/JSexton and onto whoever they think they can make it stick to.

Blaster Master has been a good choice for them as he posts a lot and made a few mis-steps, but none the size of chrisk/JSexton's.

I'm all for getting rid of any of these three, but since I've been in the habit of voting Queuing (and I still think Queuing's defense of his fishing for experience on day one was weak --- trying to catch people in a lie about how much experience they have?), his continual defense of chrisk who attracted attention on day one and REALLY attracted attention on day 2 lead me to

Unvote: Pygmy Rugger
Vote: Queuing

zuma

04-02-2007, 07:22 AM

Here's pimaspinner in 890 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418578&postcount=890) trying to keep chrisk/JSexton away from the lynch, and attacking glee:

Um, not real sure how you figure we'll get information from lynching chrisk/jsexton. chrisk hasn't posted anything that I think we would find useful, and jsexton hasn't posted anything yet. I'm sure he is about ears deep in the thread though. This is highly suspicious, and makes you scum in my eyes now. I don't think I need to change my vote now...we can lynch you soon enough.

Winston Smith

04-02-2007, 07:30 AM

zuma

04-02-2007, 07:33 AM

Queuing, who has been defending and trusting chrisk all this time, comes in after the Rysto charge against chrisk, keeps him on his trust lists, and maintains his vote on blaster master in 599 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414282&postcount=599). I'd have at least taken chrisk off the trust list at that point.

I mis-read post 599... Queuing just maintained his vote for blaster master after the Rysto allegations. Although he later tried to steer suspicion away from chrisk/JSexton.

Winston Smith

04-02-2007, 07:34 AM

Let's try that again.

Unvote chrisk.

Vote Fern Forest.

You talk too much.

storyteller0910

04-02-2007, 07:47 AM

Okay, storyteller9010's post at #854 is one of the most suspicious things I've read in this thread. And, having read it, I'll say this: if storyteller, Pleonast, and Blaster Master are not all scum, I will eat any number of hats you care to send me.

Also, welcome JSexton.

You seem to be fairly cheerful about tossing suspicion in every conceivable direction without much actual reasoning behind it. Would you care to elucidate what about my reasoning at #854 strikes you as faulty? Because it would seem to me that you've changed your mind about who you think is the most absolutely definitely certain to be scum about six times in two game days, and that seems... odd.

storyteller0910

04-02-2007, 07:49 AM

Gadarene

04-02-2007, 08:04 AM

Because it would seem to me that you've changed your mind about who you think is the most absolutely definitely certain to be scum about six times in two game days, and that seems... odd.

Oh, really? Care to show me where in the world I expressed definitiveness about someone else being scum before this? Aside from my woefully misguided vote against Enfant Terrible, of course.

You seem to be fairly cheerful about tossing suspicion in every conceivable direction without much actual reasoning behind it. Would you care to elucidate what about my reasoning at #854 strikes you as faulty?

Well, for one, you're defending everyone I have suspicions about, and you're casting doubt on several people I'm inching toward trust of. You also use a metric ton of specious reasoning, but I'm not going to go back right now and pull that up, 'cause I'm late for work. :p Finally, you're expressing a fair degree of confidence that I'm scum, and I know I'm not. (Unless I read the PM from NAF incorrectly.) And you're doing it in a fairly aggressive way. Which, you know, would tend to ping one's radar.

I stand by my near-certainty that the three of you are Mafia. If I'm proven wrong, so be it, but I don't think I will be.

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-02-2007, 08:06 AM

Here's my count of the votes:

Pleonast - 6 (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Gadarene, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton)
Blaster Master - 4 (brewha, hocow, pimaspinner, Queuing)
Queuing - 4 (kivvik, nesta, StarvingButStrong, Zuma)
Pygmy Rugger - 3 (FlyingCowOfDoom, MadTheSwine, Menocchio)
chrisk/JSexton - 2 (glee, Pygmy Rugger)
brewha - 1 (MonkeyMensch)
Fern Forest - 1 (Winston Smith)
FlyingCowOfDoom - 1 (storyteller0910)
hocow - 1 (Malacandra)
Menocchio - 1 (Autolycus)
Rysto - 1 (sturmhauke)

Fern Forest, why don't we go ahead and let people decide their own votes? Winston is right; you do talk too much. On that note, if any of you decide to change your votes, let's all be careful not to lynch Pleonast until we're good and ready.

--FCOD

glee

04-02-2007, 08:07 AM

Those are the ones where I *think* there might be some hints. How you read them is up to you.

This game is difficult enough without Autolycus posting masses of stuff with a few obscure words that leads you to 'think' there 'might' be a 'hint'.
The only chance the Town has is to give clear reasons for suspicion.

That would mean that glee, Pygmy Rugger and Winston Smith need to come up with new votes as well.

OK, I see your logic.

I think both Pleonast and Blaster Master have given good analysis.
Pygmy Rugger made a mistake about me apologising for my absence and I trust Menocchio because of CaerieD.

unvote ChrisK
vote Pygmy Rugger

Gadarene

04-02-2007, 08:14 AM

You're on my list, glee.

Winston Smith

04-02-2007, 08:23 AM

You're on my list, glee.

Lighten up, Francis.

:p

Gadarene

04-02-2007, 08:25 AM

:confused: Chill, Winston.

StarvingButStrong

04-02-2007, 08:31 AM

I've lost track. When does this day end (barring ten votes, I mean)?

Also, will shortly be heading out, so doen't expect posts from me until this evening.

Gadarene

04-02-2007, 08:32 AM

I assume, by the way, that it's better to lynch somebody rather than nobody before the day ends?

storyteller0910

04-02-2007, 08:36 AM

Oh, really? Care to show me where in the world I expressed definitiveness about someone else being scum before this? Aside from my woefully misguided vote against Enfant Terrible, of course.

You know what, after a bit of research, you're right, and I withdraw the assertion. I believe I may have confused you with another poster. My apologies.

I do think you have a remarkable tendency to jump around without explaining why. Way, way back at post #302, you tell Pleonast that you like his idea of trust lists. Then, at post #666, you again express support for him. Then, suddenly, and for no reason that I can tell, you're casting suspicion on him at #816 - after others have started moving in that direction.

Similarly, at #439 you agree with my reasoning - specious? - that sturmhauke is likely town. Then, a Day later, at #831, you say:

I agree with Lakai that sturmhauke is potentially very suspicious, although I'd rather string up Pleonast or Blaster Master first to see if the network unravels that way.

So between 302 and 831, you've gone from agreeing with Pleonast about his trust lists and agreeing with me that sturmhauke is probably a townie to casting suspicion on both of them, and never (that I can see) have you explained yourself. Once again, the primary difference seems to be that by the time 831 rolled around, other people had become suspicious so you did, too. Near as I can tell, the primary reason for chasing Pleonast seems to be his trust lists, which you supported at the time. Now you want to string him up because his idea, which you and many others liked, didn't work out?

Then, at #686, you come out stating that CaerieD's breadcrumb was probably Blaster Master and not Menocchio, but again offer no reason for thinking this other than that you "agree" with Queing on the subject. We obviously have no sure way of knowing what CaerieD was trying to tell us, but it seems much more likely, for the reasons I laid out in my last long-ish post, that her first night target was Menocchio. Otherwise we are to believe that she: (1) randomly targeted a townie with an unfamiliar name; who (2) just happened to be scum; and then (3) left a clear distracting breadcrumb for Menocchio while hiding her Blaster Master breadcrumb behind a bunch of other "mistrust" statements. This seems spectacularly unlikely to me; if you disagree, have the courtesy to explain why. Otherwise it looks like you're seeking evidence that best fits your conclusion, as opposed to the other way around.

All around, your posting history here has the look of someone who gloms onto someone to suspect once you are convinced you have supporters in your suspicion, rather than because you have any reason for it.

Well, for one, you're defending everyone I have suspicions about, and you're casting doubt on several people I'm inching toward trust of.

That's fair.

You also use a metric ton of specious reasoning, but I'm not going to go back right now and pull that up, 'cause I'm late for work. :p

Bad form. If you're going to criticize my arguments, you need to do better than this.

And my reasoning might not always be perfect, but it's out there for everyone to see. Your posts generally just toss suspicion around without explaining anything at all.

Finally, you're expressing a fair degree of confidence that I'm scum, and I know I'm not. (Unless I read the PM from NAF incorrectly.) And you're doing it in a fairly aggressive way. Which, you know, would tend to ping one's radar.

I should state for the record that I have not expressed confidence that you are scum. I have stated that I find you to be suspicious, and I find you to be even more suspicious having read your last few posts, but my vote is elsewhere at the moment for a reason.

zuma

04-02-2007, 08:37 AM

Yeah... I think the deadline is wednesday at 4 p.m. monday evening seems like a good time to put someone over the edge and demand a role claim. this gives them a chance by early tuesday morning to mount a defense/role-claim, and a day + to analyze it.

I think all the vote-leaders right now should be prepared to be logged in here and mounting a defense late monday night/overnight/early tuesday morning.

zuma

04-02-2007, 08:47 AM

I'm also liking storeyteller's analysis and observations on gadarene, and observations throughout the game (Gadarene is another who casts doubt on the caerieD list). I almost listed gadarene in my last big analysis, but I wanted to go back and analyze their posts before commenting.

Storyteller has struck me as quite pro-town for a while, and gadarene as suspiscious. We seem to be drawing some lines now, which is good for future analysis. I'm on storyteller's side and not on gadarene's side.

hocow

04-02-2007, 08:53 AM

Pygmy Rugger did say IIRC. Maybe he didn't. He also voiced reservations about Blaster Master a little before that post. MadTheSwine may have just picked up on an honest mistake. FCOD jumped right in to get the wheels of the wagon turning. Since I think FCOD is scum (as does storyteller0910), it leads me to believe that Pygmy is innocent. Menocchio has also chimed in with a vote for Pygmy, and now if I have counted correctly, he is up to 4 votes. Pygmy, please come defend yourself.

This post caught my eye. This appears to be a not-so-subtle way of deflecting suspicion on Pygmy, in a way that suggests you are in the know about his true role. As I said earlier, could be good team, could be bad team. However, Pygmy was a bit overzealous with his defense, which has me leaning towards scum. Only time will tell I suppose.

hocow is to cute not to kill.

Thanks..I think.. :confused:

Gadarene

04-02-2007, 08:59 AM

Suburban Plankton

04-02-2007, 09:01 AM

I assume, by the way, that it's better to lynch somebody rather than nobody before the day ends?
We can't fail to lynch someone. If nobody has gotten 10 votes in order to start the countdown, then the leading vote-getter at "sunset" gets lynched. If two (or more) people are tied, NAF1138 will choose at random from those names.

Fern Forest, I think you should let people vote for whomever they want. It is not required that we be unanimous in our decision, and at this point in the game it's not desirable either. All we have to go on at this point is a very short voting history, a single "breadcrumb" from the Detective, and a whole lot of guesses. If we discourage people from voting with their heads (or stomachs, hearts, or spleens) and try to make them vote "with the town" then we'll just end up lynching citizens day after day.

I happen to think that Pleonast is scum, which is why I voted for him. But if I thought that Arizona Teach was a better target, I would vote for him. And if the whole town told me I was wrong, I would not change my vote if I thought it was correct. Hopefully I am right, and Pleonast is scum. Then we can follow up his death with several more and get the town back on track. But if I'm wrong, then I'm going to look for someone who disagreed with me for clues, because my strategy isn't working. If everyone took your advice and switched their votes in order to be "popular", then we would have nothing to fall back on.

We need to vote for whomever we think is scum (or the Vig or SK if you think those are more important targets). Some of us will be proven right, some will be proven wrong, and some will be proven liars. That' the only way the town gets information. If we vote because somebody else told us to, the town gets nothing.

zuma

04-02-2007, 09:04 AM

haha. I'll put you on my Axis of Evil list Gadarene.

Everyone who steered suspicion away from chrisk and cast doubt on CaerieD's breadcrumb is appearing scummy to me.

zuma

04-02-2007, 09:10 AM

Good to know. :)

So: Pleonast, Blaster Master, storyteller0910, sturmhauke, glee, zuma.

Anyone else want to out themselves as scum?

And what the fuck did storyteller, sturmhauke, or glee do that put them on your list? You, against all reason, chose to doubt the obvious breadcrumb by CaerieD, and are still trying to avert attention from the chrisk/JSexton foible.

Tomorrow will be quite telling, when a few more roles are revealed.

Winston Smith

04-02-2007, 09:22 AM

Tomorrow will be quite telling, when a few more roles are revealed.

If we ever get to tomorrow.

You folks couldn't organize piss-up in a brewery.

Santo Rugger

04-02-2007, 09:24 AM

<snip>
Pygmy Rugger made a mistake about me apologising for my absence and I trust Menocchio because of CaerieD.

unvote ChrisK
vote Pygmy Rugger

The theory MtS proposed was that I read that you and two others said they were going to be away in the Mafia thread. So, by voting for me, you're saying you're Mafia, and posted to them last night that you were going to be away?

:dubious:

Gadarene

04-02-2007, 09:56 AM

zuma:
You, against all reason, chose to doubt the obvious breadcrumb by CaerieD, and are still trying to avert attention from the chrisk/JSexton foible.

What chrisk/JSexton foible? I have no idea what you're talking about.

In any event, and for reasons I've explained over the last couple pages, I'm very dubious that Menocchio is town. His reasons for wanting to take out Auto and chrisk are positively idiotic, particularly when he rationalizes them by saying, as paraphrased, "hey, we're not that behind anyway, it's perfectly fine if we target these guys [who even if they're Mafia won't reveal any important information] and it turns out they're town." And my doubt that Menocchio is town makes me strongly doubt that he was CaerieD's breadcrumb---which, combined with my general large-scale suspicion of Blaster Master, points the FOS square on him.

Has anyone figured out why cowgirl would have been targeted? Was it the spreadsheet?

Pleonast

04-02-2007, 10:00 AM

Holy cow, the sheer volume of this thread is nigh impossible to digest. I'm probably hopelessly out of date. But that won't keep me from voting Queuing.

zuma

04-02-2007, 10:08 AM

What chrisk/JSexton foible? Are we in the same game?

Auto/chrisk suspiscion is idiotic? They've been the most suspiscious people here.

And you're still trying to say Menocchio is not the breadcrumb?

Mennochio may well be the godfather, but I don't see how you can still be arguing that menocchio is not the breadcrumb.

Oh, let's look away and try to figure out why cowgirl was targeted. :rolleyes:

You are so mafia it is not even funny.

NAF1138

04-02-2007, 10:10 AM

Gadarene

04-02-2007, 10:14 AM

:D

I'll happily role-claim vanilla townie. I don't think anyone should have any doubts on that score by now, but YMMV.

zuma:

What chrisk/JSexton foible? Are we in the same game?

Yes. What chrisk/JSexton foible?

Auto/chrisk suspiscion is idiotic? They've been the most suspiscious people here.

Prithee, tell me: if we lynch Auto or chrisk and it turns out they are Mafia, what information does that give us going forward? They're not affiliated with anyone, nobody's been their staunch defender...to my recollection, they haven't even given trust lists, for Chrissake. The noise-to-signal ratio has been way too high for each, and now chrisk won't be bothering anyone anymore anyway. Do you really not understand the need right now to go after someone who's part of a larger, established group? If not, you're either an awful Mafia player---which I can understand, 'cause I'm still feeling my way around this game---or you're criminally obtuse. And I mean criminally.

And you're still trying to say Menocchio is not the breadcrumb?

Yes, for the reasons I've stated.

Mennochio may well be the godfather, but I don't see how you can still be arguing that menocchio is not the breadcrumb.

Well, I am. So you can cram it with walnuts.

Oh, let's look away and try to figure out why cowgirl was targeted. :p

Gadarene

04-02-2007, 10:17 AM

Sorry, this was obviously a quote:

Oh, let's look away and try to figure out why cowgirl was targeted.

Yes, let's. It strikes me we haven't really discussed it, and we probably should. Why, for example, was she targeted rather than Blaster Master---who, it has been noted, has been the vanguard of eye-popping statistical analysis and one of the most prolific (and most ostensibly helpful) players in the thread.

zuma

04-02-2007, 10:19 AM

chriskJSexton/Queuing/Pimaspinner/Gadarene good lord.

I almost want to vote all four of you at once.

Gadarene actually has no clue why chrisk/JSexton is suspiscious, or autolycus for that matter? And gadarene is STILL spinning the "caerieD did not investigating Mennochio" shit :dubious:

NAF1138

04-02-2007, 10:20 AM

Pleonast - 6 (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Gadarene, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton)
Blaster Master - 4 (brewha, hocow, pimaspinner, Queuing)
Queuing - 4 (kivvik, nesta, StarvingButStrong, Zuma)
Pygmy Rugger - 4 (FlyingCowOfDoom, MadTheSwine, Menocchio, glee)
JSexton - 1 (Pygmy Rugger)
brewha - 1 (MonkeyMensch)
Fern Forest - 1 (Winston Smith)
FlyingCowOfDoom - 1 (storyteller0910)
hocow - 1 (Malacandra)
Menocchio - 1 (Autolycus)
Rysto - 1 (sturmhauke)

Tripple checked, so it should be accurate.

And Pleonast is still in the lead. Just a reminder, someone will be lynched come noon Wednesday, even if no one has 10 votes.

zuma

04-02-2007, 10:23 AM

Sorry, this was obviously a quote:

Yes, let's. It strikes me we haven't really discussed it, and we probably should. Why, for example, was she targeted rather than Blaster Master---who, it has been noted, has been the vanguard of eye-popping statistical analysis and one of the most prolific (and most ostensibly helpful) players in the thread.

Gadarene, your trying to get everyone off your mafioso distractions is comical. You're in it with chrisk and all the others.

Queuing

04-02-2007, 10:24 AM

Ok, this thread is crazy. This game is turning out to be a lot more work then I thought. Oh well, it is still fun.

Blaster Master, I suspect you for a number of reasons. You made our fair detectives mistrust list. For those of you who have asked, yes I do think this may have been the breadcrumb. We have no way of knowing whom she investigated the first night. Yes, the odds are she investigated a town, but odds are probabilities, not certainties. Someone has accused me of not trusting menecchio (Zuma I think) which is not true. I have never said anything at all about menecchio as I have no feelings on him as of yet.

Do I know if this is the breadcrumb? No. Do I suspect it may have been? Yes. I think we gain more information by lynching Blaster Master then we do from trusting Menecchio and dismissing all of the other information our detective left us.

Let us say you are all correct, and Menecchio was the crumb. Ok, good, we have a confirmed townie, that is awesome. This is why I have never, and would not, cast a vote against Menecchio. And wouldn’t it make sense for me to? He has voted for me 2 times (unvoting each time I believe though) and wouldn’t a revenge vote make sense? One of his votes for me was because “I was too defensive”. Also if I was ready and willing to completely dismiss the Menecchio crumb, wouldn’t I try to vote for him? Ok, maybe not as that would cast suspicion on me (something that seems to exist already).

Does anyone KNOW what CaerieD left for SURE? No. So what gains us the most information? CaerieD is the ONLY true information we have. She must have left a crumb, in one of her posts. She trusted Menecchio, she distrusted Blaster Master and Autocylus. So let us believe ALL of this information until we know for sure what to believe. This is where we gain the most information. We believe Menechio is town, we believe Autocylus and Blaster Master are scum. Autocylus is either a brilliant player or a bad one, either way there have been enough calls for the SK or Vig to kill him maybe that will happen tonight, so lets not do that. Therefore the only thing we have left open to us is killing Blaster Master. This is why my vote is for him, and I stand by it.

I also think your trust/mistrust lists, which you admit was hogwash, was a scummy thing to do. Posting false information is a lie, and I believe we should “lynch all liars”

Another reason is your rather vigorous defence, even though you have been in no real danger of getting lynched.

Other people have posted this, in such posts as 766, 771 and 779 (I believe).

I have jumped on no bandwagons. My votes, day 1 Sturmhauke and day 2 Blaster Master all came with reasons. I thought it was suspicious Sturmhauke was left alive based on who had died the first night (all players from last game who had done well). It was the first day. The only information we had to act on was who had died and our guesses as to why they had been targeted. This led to my suspicion of Sturmhauke.

Blaster Master I think is scum. I had my suspicions on day 1, but they were mostly unfounded and based on Pleonast’s trust list. I didn’t understand why he had been mistrusted and then trusted. This also leads me to suspect Pleonast.

In post 883, I agree with Lakia. Lynching Pleonast or blaster master is our best source of information right now.

Ok, my defense of Chrisk. On the first day he did something of a role claim. Yes (as I have stated before) it was most likely false. However why assume that? Why not consider the possibility of it being true? Therefore Enfant Terrible would have been town, and lo and behold he was town. I kept calling for Chrisk to continue providing the information. Yes this could be false. Yes he could be hiding scum in there. I also always said at some point we need to test this information. I called to do it on the 3rd day. We lynch someone he has either said is scum or town, if it turned out to not be true then Chrisk dies the next day. This is hardly a glowing recommendation, and a hardy defense. I was going on what information we had. Not on tone of posts, or on amount of posts but on content of posts.

Here is what we may know:

CaerieD was the detective. She trusted Menecchio, she distrusted Blaster Master and Autocylus, she voted for Sturmhauke.

Chrisk claimed, at one point (maybe stupidly, maybe as a joke, but the claim was made) that he is a cop and that Enfant Terrible was town.

Enfant Terrible was town.

Everything else is based on trust/distrust lists, on post amount, on tone of post and some content, but no claims or proven information.

Acting on this information what can we do?

Believe Menecchio is town. Done, lets not lynch him.
Believe Blaster Master is scum. Ok, let’s find out and lynch him.
Believe Autocylus is scum. Ok, if he makes it through the night he dies the next day.
Believe Chrisk is a cop. Ok, this is far fetched and almost assuredly not the case. Particularly since he didn’t continue to post his information, however the one person he said was town was town! For this we lynch him? I don’t even think Enfant Terrible had said much when Chrisk came out and proclaimed him town. So fine, let’s believe he is a cop. Either way he isn’t playing anymore and JSexton is. We should allow him to live due to this if for no other reason.

Therefore we have 1 action we can take. Lynch Blaster Master.

I believe the votes go as such right now:

Day 2 Votes

6 - Pleonast – (Lakia (did it again), Kat, suburban plankton, mad the swine, Fernforest, fretfulporcupine, gadarene)
Unvote – (Lakia, MadtheSwine)
4 -Blaster Master – (Me, Gadarene, pimaspinner, hocow, brewha)
Unvote – (gadarene
4 - Queuing – (menecchio, Zuma (again), starving but strong, nesta, kivvik
Unvote – Menechio, Zuma
3 - PygmyRunner – (Zuma, madtheswine, menecchio, glee)
Unvote - Zuma
1 -Chrisk – (Rysto, FCOD, Kat, PygmyRugger, arizonateach, Lakia (after unvote), Winston, glee
Unvote – Kat, Rysto, Lakia, FCOD, arizona, winston, glee
1 -Brewha – (fernforest, Monkeymensch)
Unvoted - fernforest
1 - FCOD – (fretful porcupine, storyteller)
Unvote – (Fretful)
1 - Rysto – (sturmhauke)
1 - Hocow – (Malacandra)
1 - Fernforest – (Winston)
0- Autocylus – (Chrisk, menecchio
Unvote – (Chrisk, menecchio
0 -Gadarene – (Fern Forest, Chrisk (after unvote),
(Unvote- Fern Forest, chrisk)
0 -Nesta – (sturmhauke, )
Unvote -sturm

Since the top 3 have been told to prepare themselves with a role claim and defense, well read above for my defense. I have no ability to role claim as my ony role is Citizen.

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-02-2007, 10:25 AM

Gadarene

04-02-2007, 10:28 AM

One more thing. I'm very amused that, assuming my logic is correct, I'm now extremely unlikely to be targeted by the Mafia overnight. As I've stated, I'm purty near-certain that the vast majority of the following posters, if not all of them, are scum:

Pleonast
Blaster Master
storyteller0910
glee
zuma
sturmhauke

It's possible that one or two of 'em---particularly zuma---could just be a patsy, but I doubt it.

Anyway, if I'm right and they are Mafia, then they won't want to target me, because that would reveal that I'm town and lend far more credence to my accusations. And if I'm wrong and they're not Mafia, then whoever is Mafia wouldn't want to target me because I'd be inadvertently throwing them a damn fine smokescreen. (And of course, if I'm Mafia, which I'm not, then the Mafia wouldn't target me in any event.)

So this is what I propose: the Vigilante should take me out during the next night. Because the Vig's interests align with the town's interests (this is correct, isn't it?), he can only benefit from my being revealed to be town. That way storyteller and zuma and glee (and anyone else who's proclaiming my suspiciousness) will be shown to be direly wrong, and the FOS will then fall (I think rightfully) on them.

If not the Vig, then the Serial Killer. I'm not picky. But I am a vanilla townie, dammit, and the above list is a list of scum.

NAF1138

04-02-2007, 10:29 AM

Sorry to keep pointing out your mistakes, but Pleonast is also voting for Queuing, upping his count to 5.

--FCOD

No, its good someone catches this stuff. I dont' even get to read the thread these days, I just count and look for my name!

ONE MORE TIME!

Pleonast - 6 (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Gadarene, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton)
Blaster Master - 4 (brewha, hocow, pimaspinner, Queuing)
Queuing - 5 (kivvik, nesta, StarvingButStrong, Zuma, Pleonast)
Pygmy Rugger - 4 (FlyingCowOfDoom, MadTheSwine, Menocchio, glee)
JSexton - 1 (Pygmy Rugger)
brewha - 1 (MonkeyMensch)
Fern Forest - 1 (Winston Smith)
FlyingCowOfDoom - 1 (storyteller0910)
hocow - 1 (Malacandra)
Menocchio - 1 (Autolycus)
Rysto - 1 (sturmhauke)

Pleonast

04-02-2007, 10:29 AM

No kidding.

Any reason you think Sturm, Auto and chrisk are townies? One way to find out is to hang Blaster Master or Pleonast, who have both expressed their trust of chrisk and their approval of his Open Detection System.

Hanging FlyingCowOfDoom won't gain us much. If he is scum it will help, but if he's town then we have nothing. If Pleonast turns out to be town, then I would have to rethink my whole approach to the game. If he is mafia, I'm going after Blaster Master and then Sturmhauke, who he defended.

The only concrete evidence we gain will come from dead bodies. We need to choose one that will give us the most.Woah, there! I did not express approval of chrisk's Open Detection System. In fact, I suggested a replacement: my trust/mistrust lists.

And I feel the need to reiterate: my first list was an exemplar to show how I would set it up. Do not count changes from that as important in any way.

Queuing

04-02-2007, 10:31 AM

I missed the Pleonast vote on preview, sorry. Here is my count as I have it (including unvotes):

Day 2 Votes

6 - Pleonast – (Lakia (did it again), Kat, suburban plankton, mad the swine, Fernforest, fretfulporcupine, gadarene)
Unvote – (Lakia, MadtheSwine)
4 -Blaster Master – (Me, Gadarene, pimaspinner, hocow, brewha)
Unvote – (gadarene
5 - Queuing – (menecchio, Zuma (again), starving but strong, nesta, kivvik, pleonast
Unvote – Menechio, Zuma
3 - PygmyRunner – (Zuma, madtheswine, menecchio, glee)
Unvote - Zuma
1 -Chrisk – (Rysto, FCOD, Kat, PygmyRugger, arizonateach, Lakia (after unvote), Winston, glee
Unvote – Kat, Rysto, Lakia, FCOD, arizona, winston, glee
1 -Brewha – (fernforest, Monkeymensch)
Unvoted - fernforest
1 - FCOD – (fretful porcupine, storyteller)
Unvote – (Fretful)
1 - Rysto – (sturmhauke)
1 - Hocow – (Malacandra)
1 - Fernforest – (Winston)
0- Autocylus – (Chrisk, menecchio
Unvote – (Chrisk, menecchio
0 -Gadarene – (Fern Forest, Chrisk (after unvote),
(Unvote- Fern Forest, chrisk)
0 -Nesta – (sturmhauke, )
Unvote -sturm

Gadarene

04-02-2007, 10:31 AM

Very nice analysis, Queuing. You're making your way towards my trust list.

I specifically encourage people to read this particular paragraph:

Does anyone KNOW what CaerieD left for SURE? No. So what gains us the most information? CaerieD is the ONLY true information we have. She must have left a crumb, in one of her posts. She trusted Menecchio, she distrusted Blaster Master and Autocylus. So let us believe ALL of this information until we know for sure what to believe. This is where we gain the most information. We believe Menechio is town, we believe Autocylus and Blaster Master are scum. Autocylus is either a brilliant player or a bad one, either way there have been enough calls for the SK or Vig to kill him maybe that will happen tonight, so lets not do that. Therefore the only thing we have left open to us is killing Blaster Master. This is why my vote is for him, and I stand by it.

I completely agree.

Gadarene

04-02-2007, 10:36 AM

Also, zuma, you never answered the question I posed here.

Prithee, tell me: if we lynch Auto or chrisk and it turns out they are Mafia, what information does that give us going forward? They're not affiliated with anyone, nobody's been their staunch defender...to my recollection, they haven't even given trust lists, for Chrissake. The noise-to-signal ratio has been way too high for each, and now chrisk won't be bothering anyone anymore anyway. Do you really not understand the need right now to go after someone who's part of a larger, established group? If not, you're either an awful Mafia player---which I can understand, 'cause I'm still feeling my way around this game---or you're criminally obtuse. And I mean criminally.

I'd be interested to see your response.

Santo Rugger

04-02-2007, 10:36 AM

<snip>
Blaster Master, I suspect you for a number of reasons. You made our fair detectives mistrust list. For those of you who have asked, yes I do think this may have been the breadcrumb.
<snip>
Blaster Master I think is scum. I had my suspicions on day 1, but they were mostly unfounded and based on Pleonast’s trust list. I didn’t understand why he had been mistrusted and then trusted. This also leads me to suspect Pleonast.
<snip>

Believe Menecchio is town. Done, lets not lynch him.
Believe Blaster Master is scum. Ok, let’s find out and lynch him.
Believe Autocylus is scum. Ok, if he makes it through the night he dies the next day.
Believe Chrisk is a cop. Ok, this is far fetched and almost assuredly not the case. Particularly since he didn’t continue to post his information, however the one person he said was town was town! For this we lynch him? I don’t even think Enfant Terrible had said much when Chrisk came out and proclaimed him town. So fine, let’s believe he is a cop. Either way he isn’t playing anymore and JSexton is. We should allow him to live due to this if for no other reason.

Therefore we have 1 action we can take. Lynch Blaster Master.
<snip>

My gut has been leaning towards lynching Blaster Master, but I was waiting for a convincing, logical argument as to why. It appears this is it.

*Woo whoo, I previewed!*

zuma

04-02-2007, 10:38 AM

Queueing, your thoughts are equally hilarious. You're still on the blaster master bandwagon based on mistrusting CaerieD's claim. You are still pushing the idea that blaster master was her actual result rather than menocchio.

I'd still like to hear your idea why asking everyone for their experience to trap them in a lie about their experience was a good idea.

chrisk/JSexton fucked up, and you're clinging to the ridiculous theory that blastermaster was the breadcrumb...

NAF1138

04-02-2007, 10:40 AM

My gut has been leaning towards lynching Blaster Master, but I was waiting for a convincing, logical argument as to why. It appears this is it.

*Woo whoo, I previewed!*

For the love of God people UNVOTE!

Ok, you have all been really good at this actually. But things are heating up and I just wanted to make sure you all don't start to forget. I am having a hard enough time keeping up as it is.

Gadarene

04-02-2007, 10:43 AM

zuma:
Queueing, your thoughts are equally hilarious. You're still on the blaster master bandwagon based on mistrusting CaerieD's claim. You are still pushing the idea that blaster master was her actual result rather than menocchio.

Actually, he's saying that assuming that both were her actual result (as would be the safest course of action at this stage) leads us to the same conclusion...that Blaster Master is scum.

chrisk/JSexton fucked up, and you're clinging to the ridiculous theory that blastermaster was the breadcrumb...

Two questions. (1) How did chrisk/JSexton fuck up? Are you just talking about the hypothetical cop role-claim, or did I honestly miss something? (2) Why, in your own words, is the theory that Blaster Master was the breadcrumb ridiculous?

Queuing

04-02-2007, 10:46 AM

1 trick pony anyone?

I have explained NUMEROUS times to you my idea about the experience. You seem to refuse to even read my posts. Do you just look to see if I posted, come here, hit "post reply" and paste the same comment over and over again?

Did you even read what I just posted? Nowhere did I say I am ignoring the breadcrumb that is "so obvious". I am saying the only thing that makes sense.

No one (not even you!) KNOWS what CaerieD was saying. If you claim to KNOW that means you know who and who isn't Town/Scum. How could you know that?

I am proposing we believe ALL role claims and ALL crumbs until it PROVEN (yes this means by killing someone) that someone lied. I am not saying for SURE that the crumb was Blaster Master. Instead I am saying we must believe all crumbs until proven otherwise.

Honestly try reading my posts before you let fly with the same old accusation that I have answered numerous times.

Santo Rugger

04-02-2007, 10:46 AM

unvote chrisk

I have two reasons for this, neither of which involves Fern trying to guide our town's votes.

When he first claimed a role, so early in the game, and with nothing else to go by, I thought two things. First, that he was Mafia claiming a role so people wouldn't vote to lynch him. Second, that he was a citizen claiming a role (which I think is bad for the town, so early in the game), hoping to be protected.

The other reason I'm changing my vote is because, with the sub, I believe JSexton will be benificial to the town. I believe chrisk was simply overzealous, and wanted to stay in a couple more rounds, and thought the GA would protect him with a role claim.

*I should have previewed for content, and not just for getting my vote the right color!*

Queuing

04-02-2007, 10:48 AM

By the way, post #980 (not sure if this will follow it) was directed at zuma. Plus its damn hard to be on a "Bandwagon" when I started the damn thing.

zuma

04-02-2007, 10:49 AM

zuma:

Actually, he's saying that assuming that both were her actual result (as would be the safest course of action at this stage) leads us to the same conclusion...that Blaster Master is scum.

Two questions. (1) How did chrisk/JSexton fuck up? Are you just talking about the hypothetical cop role-claim, or did I honestly miss something? (2) Why, in your own words, is the theory that Blaster Master was the breadcrumb ridiculous?

chrisk/JSexton fucked up when he proposed the fake cop claim thing, after pointing out in the werewolf observation thread that that would lead scum to the cop. Rysto detailed this.

The theory that blaster master was the breadcrumb is ridiculous because it is obviously menocchio, based on her "Trust: Menocchio" post soon aftrer she saw mennocchio post his first thoughts. She was all over the trust/mistrust list. Why are we still debating this?

Gadarene

04-02-2007, 10:52 AM

#975, zuma. Thanks in advance. :) And take a look at #970 while you're at it. You have any problem with the Serial Killer or the Vigilante taking me out tonight, if you're so sure I'm scum?

Pleonast

04-02-2007, 10:56 AM

Ok, against the advice of both my doctor and lawyer, I'm going to keep posting my lists:

I trust: Blaster Master, glee, JSexton/chrisk, Menocchio, Rysto, storyteller0910, zuma.
I mistrust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, Gadarene, Queuing, Suburban Plankton.

Differences from my last list:
Now trusting Menocchio as the breadcrumb. Sorry for mistrusting you before. And trusting zuma for his continuing analyses (which is why I'm still trusting glee and especially storyteller0910).

I mistrust Gadarene for orchestrating the bandwagon against me. And likewise for Suburban Plankton.

zuma

04-02-2007, 11:04 AM

#975, zuma. Thanks in advance. :) And take a look at #970 while you're at it. You have any problem with the Serial Killer or the Vigilante taking me out tonight, if you're so sure I'm scum?

I could just as easily say take me out tonight as scum and see where you end up in the morning. Take you out tonight, take me out tonight, it tells us a lot tomorrow. I'll throw myself up on the cross as easily as you will.

Queuing

04-02-2007, 11:07 AM

I could just as easily say take me out tonight as scum and see where you end up in the morning. Take you out tonight, take me out tonight, it tells us a lot tomorrow. I'll throw myself up on the cross as easily as you will.
Zuma, if my thinking is "hilarious" how about telling me how you think it is, rather then just cut and pasting your previous thoughts about me?

Gadarene

04-02-2007, 11:10 AM

Pleonast:
I trust: Blaster Master, glee, JSexton/chrisk, Menocchio, Rysto, storyteller0910, zuma.
I mistrust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, Gadarene, Queuing, Suburban Plankton.

Isn't it fascinating who's up on which of your lists. :) For better or worse, I've certainly run into an established bloc of players. Either I'm right that most of you are scum, or else I'm completely and utterly clueless. I discount neither possibility, but---since I'm generally pretty smart---the former seems a tad more likely.

I also wouldn't at all be surprised to learn that Auto was scum and that y'all are sacrificing him to insulate yourselves from suspicion.

zuma:
I could just as easily say take me out tonight as scum and see where you end up in the morning. Take you out tonight, take me out tonight, it tells us a lot tomorrow. I'll throw myself up on the cross as easily as you will.

I'm perfectly okay with that. So hey Vigilante, target me tonight. And hey Serial Killer, target zuma. Plzkthx.

zuma

04-02-2007, 11:13 AM

You defended chrisk/JSexton from day one. You've done everything in your power to deflect attention, including casting suspicion on CaerieD's obvious menocchio breadcrumb, and tried to get your buddy chrisk/JSexton out of the lynch. Along with your friends Queuing, prima, and Gadarene.

Gadarene

04-02-2007, 11:17 AM

Queuing

04-02-2007, 11:17 AM

You are so succinct Zuma. Oh wait, no that just you saying nothing.

Show me a post where I am discounting the "obvious" breadcrumb. I am not, and I never have. I am impressed with your knowledge of CaerieD's intent and thought.

So instead of believing everything that she said, like I say, we should just believe what you want us to? All because its "obvious".

In spite of being on your hitlist I still don't think you are scum, maybe you are, but I think we have bigger fish to fry. Starting with Blaster Master.

Oh there I go, on that bandwagon again! :dubious:

Queuing

04-02-2007, 11:18 AM

I still want you to answer mt #975, zuma. Why do you think it's so important to lynch chrisk/JSexton right now? What sort of information do you think that will give the town? Do you sincerely think it's the most useful thing we can do?

I want his answer for anything...

zuma

04-02-2007, 11:19 AM

Smitty

04-02-2007, 11:20 AM

OK, I was gone over the weekend, and trying to catch up with this is a real bear!

Gadarene, if you are vanilla town, as you claim, then you being killed by the vig or the SK proves nothing. You have no special knowledge, and just because other people are suspicious of you, and you of them, means nothing at all.

If you are a townie, then the vig would not want to target you tonight, because he is on the side of the town, and killing innocent townies is bad for the town, especially at this point where not a single scum has been killed.

The SK is out for no one but himself. Targeting you doesn't help him, so why should he care if it benefits the town?

I don't see you in any particular danger at night, and offering to be killed to prove your innocence is a way to keep you out of danger during the day. An innocent person should be trying his best to stay alive to help the town, not asking to die!

A role claim out of the blue when you are in not in current danger of being lynched? It's just not something that vanilla townies do.

vote Gadarene

Gadarene

04-02-2007, 11:22 AM

Yes, I think chrisk fucked up big time and I want him, or Queuing, or prima to have to role-claim tonight.

Wow, if you think that was a "big time" fuck-up, your sense of priorities is weirdly out of whack.

Once again, the vast majority of the following list are scum. If the SK or Vig hits me tonight, as I hope they will, remember this list, y'all, and follow it:

Blaster Master
Pleonast
storyteller0910
zuma
glee
sturmhauke

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But I don't think I'm wrong.

zuma

04-02-2007, 11:24 AM

Wow, if you think that was a "big time" fuck-up, your sense of priorities is weirdly out of whack.

Once again, the vast majority of the following list are scum. If the SK or Vig hits me tonight, as I hope they will, remember this list, y'all, and follow it:

Blaster Master
Pleonast
storyteller0910
zuma
glee
sturmhauke

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But I don't think I'm wrong.

:rolleyes: If you don't think chrisk didn't fuck up big time, then your priorities are out of whack. I also hope the sk or vig hits you tonight.

zuma

04-02-2007, 11:31 AM

:rolleyes: If you don't think chrisk didn't fuck up big time, then your priorities are out of whack. I also hope the sk or vig hits you tonight.

"If you think chrisk didn't fuck up big time..." is what I meant to say

Winston Smith

04-02-2007, 11:34 AM

Fern Forest

04-02-2007, 11:37 AM

Let's try that again.

Unvote chrisk.
Vote Fern Forest.

You talk too much.
Well,ok then. Almost in the spirit of what I meant but not quite. Can you defend your vote and convince people to agree with you? Well I guess you're right I do talk a lot. Hasn't convinced me that I'm scum but then I do know what I am.

Here's my count of the votes:

Fern Forest, why don't we go ahead and let people decide their own votes? Winston is right; you do talk too much. On that note, if any of you decide to change your votes, let's all be careful not to lynch Pleonast until we're good and ready.

--FCOD
I can see you guys disagree with me.

My thoughts were that rather then let the votes stand short of 10 till Wednesday it would be better for us to send someone up a couple days early allowing them time to defend themselves(and force them to defend themselves), us to pick someone else to send and for them to defend themselves. We have 6 ungiven votes. No one has more then 6 votes. Unless people start switching it seems like we'll be waiting till the last possible minute on Wednesday. I don't really care who anyone votes for but vote and explain your reasoning. If you notice no one else is buying it why not move to your second place suspicion? Otherwise it's like voting for Kucinich in a US Presidential first past the gate election.

This day has covered a lot of posts. It looks like tempers are starting to flare. And I do talk a lot, I'm sorry. When I die you'll ... well you'll have a lot of posts to review from this guy who didn't actually know anymore then you guys do. But wasn't afriad to push for things he thought would work, despite the enemies it may have made him.