Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[ArizonaTeach]

Hey, I was the one jumping at everything chrisk said, and even I don't see it as a big-time fuckup. And I'm getting more convinced that he was just in over his head.

You, on the other hand, have gotten downright surreal in the last couple of pages, I'm leaning towards believing in Gadarene, and placing you firmly in the scum pile.

I also, for what it's worth, think that Pygmy Runner's vote for Blaster Master is a snowjob, and he is part of the scum axis. I do think that one correct lynching will blow this thing to hell, so I'm going to politely ask that we string up Blaster Master.

[MonkeyMensch]

Hi all. I got as far as the, um, personnel change and thinking, "sheesh!" went for a walk. Let me catch up as my list and probably vote need updating.

[Hockey Monkey]

Does anyone KNOW what CaerieD left for SURE? No. So what gains us the most information? CaerieD is the ONLY true information we have. She must have left a crumb, in one of her posts. She trusted Menecchio, she distrusted Blaster Master and Autocylus. So let us believe ALL of this information until we know for sure what to believe. This is where we gain the most information. We believe Menechio is town, we believe Autocylus and Blaster Master are scum. Autocylus is either a brilliant player or a bad one, either way there have been enough calls for the SK or Vig to kill him maybe that will happen tonight, so lets not do that. Therefore the only thing we have left open to us is killing Blaster Master. This is why my vote is for him, and I stand by it.



I concur. This is a much better way of saying it than I have been able to do. I am allowing for the possibility that all of the names she dropped were crumbs. No one knows for sure, so we need to assume everything she said was correct until proven otherwise.

Yes, I think chrisk fucked up big time and I want him, or Queuing, or prima to have to role-claim tonight.

:confused: I'm not being voted for by anybody. By all means color code me blue zuma, (be sure to unvote Queuing when you do). I'll mount a defense when 9 other people agree with you. :D

[Queuing]

As requested an up-to-date vote (at least according to me, the names of who voted are in the order in which they came unless unvoted and revoted) including unvotes:

Day 2 Votes

6 - Pleonast – (Lakia (did it again), Kat, suburban plankton, mad the swine, Fernforest, fretfulporcupine, gadarene)
Unvote – (Lakia, MadtheSwine)
6 -Blaster Master – (Me, Gadarene, pimaspinner, hocow, brewha, pygmy rugger, ArizonaTeach)
Unvote – (gadarene
5 - Queuing – (menecchio, Zuma (again), starving but strong, nesta, kivvik, pleonast
Unvote – Menechio, Zuma
3 - PygmyRunner – (Zuma, madtheswine, menecchio, glee)
Unvote - Zuma
1 -Chrisk – (Rysto, FCOD, Kat, PygmyRugger, arizonateach, Lakia (after unvote), Winston, glee
Unvote – Kat, Rysto, Lakia, FCOD, arizona, winston, glee, pygmy rugger)
1 -Brewha – (fernforest, Monkeymensch)
Unvoted - fernforest
1 - FCOD – (fretful porcupine, storyteller)
Unvote – (Fretful)
1 - Rysto – (sturmhauke)
1 - Hocow – (Malacandra)
1 - Fernforest – (Winston)
1 -Gadarene – (Fern Forest, Chrisk (after unvote), smitty
(Unvote- Fern Forest, chrisk)
0- Autocylus – (Chrisk, menecchio
Unvote – (Chrisk, menecchio
0 -Nesta – (sturmhauke, )
Unvote -sturm

[Gadarene]

ArizonaTeach:
I also, for what it's worth, think that Pygmy Runner's vote for Blaster Master is a snowjob, and he is part of the scum axis. I do think that one correct lynching will blow this thing to hell, so I'm going to politely ask that we string up Blaster Master.

I'm currently voting for Pleonast, but I'm happy to switch over to Blaster Master instead to make the numbers work out all right. I don't care which of them gets lynched as long as one of 'em does; I think we'll be able to flip over the rock and uncover the scum network regardless. Once we get another vote count, I'll see whether it makes sense to switch.

[Gadarene]

Excellent, another vote count. :)

As I say, I'm happy to switch if need be. In fact, hell:

unvote Pleonast

vote Blaster Master

I think I've made my position clear.

[Winston Smith]

All right, all right. Fern Forest don't take it to heart. That was more tongue-in-cheek than ad hominym attack.

Unvote Fern Forest

Vote Blaster Master

My reason here is the same as last time. I want to provoke action.

[NAF1138]

Well, he got 7 votes...so here I go again.

(8) Blaster Master- (Queuing,hocow,pimaspinner,brewha, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, Winston Smith)
(1) brewha - (Moneky Mensch)
(1) Flying Cow of Doom - (storyteller0910)
(1) Gadarene - (Smitty)
(1) hocow - (Malacandra)
(1) Menocchio - (Autolycus)
(5) Pleonast - (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton)
(4) Pygmy Rugger - (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio, glee)
(4) Queuing - (kivvik , nesta, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast)
(1) Rysto - (sturmhauke)

[Pleonast]

You missed my vote for Queuing.

[NAF1138]

You missed my vote for Queuing.


No I didn't, and you can't prove I did!


God I love the edit function.

And this is why you are not allowed to edit.

[Pleonast]

No I didn't, and you can't prove I did!Hehe, you forgot to update the total to 5.

Scum tell! I vote NAF1138.

[NAF1138]

Damn!

[Santo Rugger]

Damn!

You have some serious explaining to do. I'm pretty sure you know who all the scum are. AND you used edit, which is against the rules. Have you even read them?!? ;)

[NAF1138]

You have some serious explaining to do. I'm pretty sure you know who all the scum are. AND you used edit, which is against the rules. Have you even read them?!? ;)


Bah, rules are for suckers, who reads them? It's like reading the owners manual, totally unnessesary.

[nesta]

Post 968 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8420365&postcount=968):

Blaster Master, I suspect you for a number of reasons. You made our fair detectives mistrust list. For those of you who have asked, yes I do think this may have been the breadcrumb. We have no way of knowing whom she investigated the first night. Yes, the odds are she investigated a town, but odds are probabilities, not certainties. Someone has accused me of not trusting menecchio (Zuma I think) which is not true. I have never said anything at all about menecchio as I have no feelings on him as of yet.

Do I know if this is the breadcrumb? No. Do I suspect it may have been? Yes. I think we gain more information by lynching Blaster Master then we do from trusting Menecchio and dismissing all of the other information our detective left us.

Let us say you are all correct, and Menecchio was the crumb. Ok, good, we have a confirmed townie, that is awesome. This is why I have never, and would not, cast a vote against Menecchio. And wouldn’t it make sense for me to? He has voted for me 2 times (unvoting each time I believe though) and wouldn’t a revenge vote make sense? One of his votes for me was because “I was too defensive”. Also if I was ready and willing to completely dismiss the Menecchio crumb, wouldn’t I try to vote for him? Ok, maybe not as that would cast suspicion on me (something that seems to exist already).

Does anyone KNOW what CaerieD left for SURE? No. So what gains us the most information? CaerieD is the ONLY true information we have. She must have left a crumb, in one of her posts. She trusted Menecchio, she distrusted Blaster Master and Autocylus. So let us believe ALL of this information until we know for sure what to believe. This is where we gain the most information. We believe Menechio is town, we believe Autocylus and Blaster Master are scum. Autocylus is either a brilliant player or a bad one, either way there have been enough calls for the SK or Vig to kill him maybe that will happen tonight, so lets not do that. Therefore the only thing we have left open to us is killing Blaster Master. This is why my vote is for him, and I stand by it.

Good answer. I disagree, but at least I understand why you are using CaerieD in support of lynching Blaster Master. It's still not a good reason, though. The suspicion that CaerieD had of Blaster Master seems reactionary to me, not a breadcrumb, so while we have to keep it in mind it's a very thin justification to go after Blaster Master.

I can't get behind the Blaster Master bandwagon. Especially now that it's about reached critical mass. I don't like some of his logic, and some of his posts strike me as odd, but with as much as he's posted that's bound to happen even if he is town. I do think that it's either him that is town and you or Gadarene, or both, are scum for starting his bandwagon, or he's scum and you two have done a good job of outing him. I would much rather lynch the scum today to reveal us some more trusted civilians than lynch a civilian to reveal scum. It seems the Blaster Master train has already left the station, so I'm actually rooting for you to be town. Since it doesn't look like you are in serious danger, and I think you're more likely to be scum than he is based on the way his bandwagon went down, I'm leaving my vote where it is.

FOS Gadarene too. I think your behavior today has been much more suspicious than Queuing's, and I'd change my vote if it looked like it was a choice between Queuing and you. Asking the SK or Vig to kill you seems a really stupid idea, because if you're scum you don't mean it, and if you're town then why would you want us to lose another civilian? The lynch tonight is as likely to reveal enough information for us to go on tomorrow as your death, so why have both happen at the same time?

[Gadarene]

nesta:

I do think that it's either him that is town and you or Gadarene, or both, are scum for starting his bandwagon, or he's scum and you two have done a good job of outing him.

Obviously, I think you're correct about this. :)

[Blaster Master]

Yes, let's. It strikes me we haven't really discussed it, and we probably should. Why, for example, was she targeted rather than Blaster Master---who, it has been noted, has been the vanguard of eye-popping statistical analysis and one of the most prolific (and most ostensibly helpful) players in the thread.
Your reasoning is dubious at best, and deliberately so at wost. My explanation for my survival last night is simple. Yesterday, (I don't remember the post, but if you doubt it, I can find it), I made a request of the doctor to EITHER self-protect OR protect those with the highest level of trust. My purpose of this request was to allow the doctor to potentially self-protect AND stiill cast doubt on whether or not those with high levels of trust like Rysto and myself were protected, removing temptation from the mafia, VIG, and SK to target either of us. Further, at this point, the mafia would be dumb to kill anyone in high suspicion, either because they actually are mafia OR they're good distractions from their brethren. Thus, at this point, their only targets are likely to be people who are completely under the radar in either direction.

My point? It is just as much of a weapon for the mafia to leave particular individuals alive as it is to kill one; both can be used to cast doubt on the trustworthiness of an individual.

The fact that you want to lynch me for being "ostensibly helpful" betrays the fact that you're aware of this fact and, aware of my town loyalty, are doing everything you can to get a helpful player lynched during the day, to allow you and your mafia brethren to target the "under the radar" players at night.

Your squirming and pseudo-role-claim when someone other than those you've already pointed the FoS at, muchless your ridiculous "VIG, please kill me tonight" garbage just demonstrates your hypocrcy and scumminess even further.

Your evidence against me is: I'm still alive (?), I supported pleonast's trust lists (which you did as well, before condemning me for it), and that CaerieD distrusted me, claiming my death will net more information (despite that many have said my analysis has been helpful). Meanwhile, your death will net at least as much information as mine will, by either vindicating or condemning this "list of definite scum" you've put together, and doing the opposite to your ostentacious supporters.

Thus, for now, I will vote to lynch Gadarene. Though I suspect your lynching won't get the necessary votes today, thus I'm also prepared to shift it to Queuing if necessary.


On another note, my access will be limited for about the next 24 hours, but if I'm still the leading vote getter tomorrow, I'll post my final defense then.

[Queuing]

Post 968 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8420365&postcount=968):

Good answer. I disagree, but at least I understand why you are using CaerieD in support of lynching Blaster Master. It's still not a good reason, though. The suspicion that CaerieD had of Blaster Master seems reactionary to me, not a breadcrumb, so while we have to keep it in mind it's a very thin justification to go after Blaster Master.

I am wondering, what part of CaerieD's suspicion is reactionary? Up until that point most people (I think and Blaster Master agrees) trusted Blaster Master for his posts, his math work and generally supported him. Yet CaerieD put him on the distrust list, along with Autocylus, who at that time was being bandwagonned.

I agree that acting on the CaerieD information alone may be somewhat thin. I have explained my other reasons for voting to lynch Blaster Master.

Hell she could have investigated Menocchio found him to be town, and just placed people she thought seemed to already have town support behind them (Blaster Master) and people who were being bandwaggoned (Autocylus) on her list to try to hide her power role.

However a person who was that tricky with their mistrust list would have been smart enough to put more then 1 person on her trusted list, don't you think?

[brewha]

Besides my suspicion of Blaster Master, I thought he'd be a good vote since if he is town, he's as good as dead anyway. The mafia will see to that because of his high profile posting. OTOH, he has a good point that the mafia may start picking off low profile posters to keep suspicions on those like Blaster Master.

He's either a helpful and well meaning townie or a very clever baddie. Right now there's too much reasonable doubt for me to take part in lynching him.

Unvote Blaster Master

[Gadarene]

Blaster Master:
Meanwhile, your death will net at least as much information as mine will, by either vindicating or condemning this "list of definite scum" you've put together, and doing the opposite to your ostentacious supporters.

Are my supporters really "ostentatious"? That's awesome. :cool: But hey, I'm happy to go down at the same time as you. Townies still far outnumber the Mafia, and if your death does lead to the exposure of the other five people I've listed as probable scum, it could well be enough to break the game completely open. Sounds like a good trade-off to me.

Your squirming and pseudo-role-claim when someone other than those you've already pointed the FoS at, muchless your ridiculous "VIG, please kill me tonight" garbage just demonstrates your hypocrcy and scumminess even further.

See, this is what cracks me up about you guys. :) It's not enough for you to say, "Gee, Gad, I understand the need for suspicion, but I don't think you're thinking this through; we're both on the same side here." No, instead you (and zuma and whoever else) wax lyrical about my "hypocrisy and scumminess." What that does, basically, is remove any doubts I have about you.

Plus, you're not even very good liars any more. As ArizonaTeach pointed out about zuma, your posts---their wording, their tone, their approach---are starting to ring utterly false. It's kind of amusing, but mostly it just makes me happy I figured it out.

[Rysto]

Guys, can we not lynch anybody until JSexton has had a chance to post?

[Hockey Monkey]

Yes, I think chrisk fucked up big time and I want him, or Queuing, or prima to have to role-claim tonight.

I've been thinking more about this statement, and particularly why may name would be in it. Does anyone else find it odd that zuma would want me to role-claim when I am in no danger at all of being lynched? With not even one vote cast against me? Either zuma has his panties all in a bunch over nothing or he's scum who thinks I have some role and he's trying to out me. Sorry to disappoint you. I think he just outed himself.

[Blaster Master]

I am wondering, what part of CaerieD's suspicion is reactionary? Up until that point most people (I think and Blaster Master agrees) trusted Blaster Master for his posts, his math work and generally supported him. Yet CaerieD put him on the distrust list, along with Autocylus, who at that time was being bandwagonned.

I agree that acting on the CaerieD information alone may be somewhat thin. I have explained my other reasons for voting to lynch Blaster Master.

Hell she could have investigated Menocchio found him to be town, and just placed people she thought seemed to already have town support behind them (Blaster Master) and people who were being bandwaggoned (Autocylus) on her list to try to hide her power role.

However a person who was that tricky with their mistrust list would have been smart enough to put more then 1 person on her trusted list, don't you think?

CaerieD's suspicion of me was because I was "a little too gung ho", which seemed based on the suggestion made (IIRC, by you) that people who offer a lot of analysis are more likely to either be mafia or a power role. I'm still trying to figure out the logic behind that as good reason to lynch, so let's analyze:

Let's assume for a moment that it's true; then I'm either mafia or a power role AND I've been helpful (going by what others have said). Knowing that it's highly unlikely that she would have targetted me (as I wasn't a previous player, and wasn't particularly active in the thread before the first day began), then that makes it just about as likely that I'm a power role as that I'm mafia. Being that others have found my analysis useful, if I am mafia, there ARE others out there who haven't been helpful, and thus you can keep me around and use my analysis and lynch me later; if I'm a power role, then you're losing a power role AND my helpful analysis, making me one of the worst players for the town to lose. IMO, losing a potential power-role AND my analysis far outweighs losing a potential mafia who still provides useful analysis to the town

Now, of course, let's analyze the opposite, and much more likely scenario IMO, that that suggestion is without merit. That is, my posting quantity is an artifact of my enjoyment of the game and my ability to keep up with it, and nothing more. Thus, I'm no more likely to be mafia, townie, or a power role than anyone else; thus, casting serious doubt on the bandwagon, and its main proponents, that has formed on me because of this reasoning.

Either way, if I'm put on the chopping block, as it looks like I very well may be, I'm adequately prepared to dispell the doubt of my trustworthiness. And if/when that occurs, I imagine the FoS will fall squarely on you and Gadarene; and it absolutely will when my death reveals that I, indeed, am not mafia.

[Queuing]

No one has been lynched yet. No one is in real danger of lynching. At some point the day will end, and we should end it rather then the Moderator. However I don't think we should end it YET. Blaster Master will be away for the next 24 hours (which sucks, and I urge him to post his defense now, much like I did).

IMO if you are one of the people in danger, it behooves you to defend yourself as we are running out of time. With only a 12 hour window to defend yourself you could quite easily run out of time.

VOTE UPDATE: (if you don't like these, or the way I do it feel free to say so)

7 -Blaster Master – (Queuing, Gadarene (again), pimaspinner, hocow, brewha, pygmy rugger, ArizonaTeach, winston)
Unvote – (gadarene, brewha)
5 - Pleonast – (Lakia (did it again), Kat, suburban plankton, mad the swine, Fernforest, fretfulporcupine, gadarene)
Unvote – (Lakia, MadtheSwine, gadarene)
5 - Queuing – (menecchio, Zuma (again), starving but strong, nesta, kivvik, pleonast)
Unvote – Menechio, Zuma
3 - PygmyRunner – (Zuma, madtheswine, menecchio, glee)
Unvote - Zuma
B]2[/B] -Gadarene – (Fern Forest, Chrisk (after unvote), smitty, Blaster Master)
(Unvote- Fern Forest, chrisk)
1 -Chrisk – (Rysto, FCOD, Kat, PygmyRugger, arizonateach, Lakia (after unvote), Winston, glee
Unvote – Kat, Rysto, Lakia, FCOD, arizona, winston, glee, pygmy rugger)
1 -Brewha – (fernforest, Monkeymensch)
Unvoted - fernforest
1 - FCOD – (fretful porcupine, storyteller)
Unvote – (Fretful)
1 - Rysto – (sturmhauke)
1 - Hocow – (Malacandra)
0 - Fernforest – (Winston)
(Unvote – Winston)
0- Autocylus – (Chrisk, menecchio
Unvote – (Chrisk, menecchio
0 -Nesta – (sturmhauke, )
Unvote -sturm[/QUOTE

[MonkeyMensch]

Well, an hour and a half to read 300 posts, not too bad.

Winston Smith called for me to justify or update my suspicion list in #936 and I am happy to, given the changes that have occured.

My list at the time was: chrisk, brewha, aguecheek. At that time I was waiting for chrisk to explain or defend his posts, but that is not forthcoming now. So chrisk, and by extension JSexton, is off the list, but still awaiting data.

Brewha had accused me of giving 3 or 4 scum tells based on my admission of being a first time player and saying "::sniff::" to farewell the first night's fallen. I thought it was very weakly based suspicion and it caught my eye.

Aguecheek in #393, In regards to assigning current roles and roles played in the last game, I am of the belief that all roles were assigned randomly, and that sturmhauke had as much of a chance of being assigned mafia as he'd had being assigned citizen.

And I think he was assigned mafia.

He was just as good a player earlier as dnooman had been last game (better, imho); I felt he managed to fly below the radar much longer than dnooman did. Were I mafia, I'da voted for him first and gone for dnooman second. The promised spreadsheet would not have had enough data on it to be much good by the time the second night rolled around. The only reasons I'd say he didn't go first was either because he was mafia... or the mafia could only get one at a time and he's set to go second.

There's been much discussion throughout as to why he wasn't killed the first night by either the mob, the Vigilante, or the Serial Killer. I think he's mob (as noted above). But if he isn't, there should still have been a very good chance for him getting offed by the Vig or SK for the very same reasons he should've been targeted by the mafia. And yet he still wasn't picked. That good a player, and three different factions didn't pick him? C'mon. If he's not mafia, then he's one of the other two killers. seemed to be basing suspicion on sturmhauke's performance in the werewolf game and his survival of the first night. Again, like brewha's suspicion, it seemed weak and contrived.

With the current information I'm going with Aguecheek, Brewha, Queuing. Queuing is there from reading others' analyses and is third for that reason.

So unvote brewha, vote aguecheek.

[Winston Smith]

Guys, can we not lynch anybody until JSexton has had a chance to post?

I wanted to lynch chrisk for precisely this reason. Town or Mafia, I didn't want this slowing down an already excruciatingly slow day.

Come on, people! Where's your hysteria?!?

[nesta]

I am wondering, what part of CaerieD's suspicion is reactionary?
Maybe reactionary wasn't the word I was looking for. Hm, according to m-w.com it seems it wasn't. I was trying to say that CaerieD was reacting to Blaster Master's posts, and not trusting her investigation, when she said she didn't trust him in post 478 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408888&postcount=478). This is in contrast to the out of nowhere trust she gives Menocchio in post 326 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406256&postcount=326). The original trust list was posted 3/28 at 3:54 PM, and the mistrust of Blaster Master was posted on 3/29 at 10:47 AM, or almost 18 hours later. That's a lot of time to build up a reaction to someone who posts as much as Blaster Master, and his prolific posting style is her stated reason for distrusting him. That's what I meant.

Hell she could have investigated Menocchio found him to be town, and just placed people she thought seemed to already have town support behind them (Blaster Master) and people who were being bandwaggoned (Autocylus) on her list to try to hide her power role.

However a person who was that tricky with their mistrust list would have been smart enough to put more then 1 person on her trusted list, don't you think?
I don't think she was that tricky. I think her posts were exactly what they appear to be, that she made an obvious breadcrumb post after supporting the idea of breadcrumbs, and then later didn't trust Blaster Master for exactly the reason she said. Nothing tricky there.

[NAF1138]

VOTE UPDATE: (if you don't like these, or the way I do it feel free to say so)

7 -Blaster Master – (Queuing, Gadarene (again), pimaspinner, hocow, brewha, pygmy rugger, ArizonaTeach, winston)
Unvote – (gadarene, brewha)

Bolding mine, brewha unvoted.

BM only has 6 votes now. See, it's not easy to keep up.

[Blaster Master]

No one has been lynched yet. No one is in real danger of lynching. At some point the day will end, and we should end it rather then the Moderator. However I don't think we should end it YET. Blaster Master will be away for the next 24 hours (which sucks, and I urge him to post his defense now, much like I did).

Correction, I had a feeling I didn't state that too well. I will have limited access (mondays and tuesdays and thursday tend to be VERY busy for me between work and school) so I may or may not be able to defend myself tonight. That said, if I get home at a not so unreasonable time, I may post my defense tonight, if I still feel I'm in danger.

[Gadarene]

BM only has 6 votes now. See, it's not easy to keep up.

Only six? From your list, I count seven.

Queuing, Gadarene (again), pimaspinner, hocow, pygmy rugger, ArizonaTeach, winston.

Yup, seven.

[NAF1138]

I was going of the number he had. I didn't actually count.

But I realized I misinterpreted how he was putting the list together...never mind, I shouldn't post.

Who am I to try to keep track of things.

[Winston Smith]

[QUOTE=MonkeyMensch]

Winston Smith called for me to justify or update my suspicion list in #936 and I am happy to, given the changes that have occured.
[QUOTE]

What the hell are you talking about? I never asked you for anything. We've not even had any dialog, you and I. Although I vaguely recall you casting suspicion my way 4 or 5 hundred posts ago.

WTF? :confused:

[Queuing]

CaerieD's suspicion of me was because I was "a little too gung ho", which seemed based on the suggestion made (IIRC, by you)

For the record this is false. I have never accused someone of being to "gung ho". I am the 6th most active posting player. I do not think the number of posts indicate anything (except maybe a little much involvement in the game ;) ). Since I am voting to lynch you on the basis of information provided to us by the only person who has the ability to provide townspeople info (our dead detective), and the fact that you lied (lynch all liars). Also considering the fact most of your "useful" reputation is based on math and probabilities, I feel confident in my vote for you.

You could be town, to be honest I don't KNOW. All I KNOW is what I am, a vanilla citizen, and what the dead people are. One of these dead people happened to be a detective. I believe everything she said. That is the only logical way to look at her information. Unfortunately for you she said she didn't trust you. You are now saying she didn't trust you because of what I said?! Even though I didn't say it? Huh? Lie number 2? Or just an honest mistake, and why not point the finger at me?

[Queuing]

I was going of the number he had. I didn't actually count.

But I realized I misinterpreted how he was putting the list together...never mind, I shouldn't post.

Who am I to try to keep track of things.
He has 7. I count everyone who has voted for a certain player, and leave them in that list. I then compare it to who has unvoted. I do this so I can see who voted for who, and when they voted. The order of names is in the order the vote was cast.

Sorry if its confusing, I can change the list I post to be consistent with yours if that will make life easier.

[NAF1138]

He has 7. I count everyone who has voted for a certain player, and leave them in that list. I then compare it to who has unvoted. I do this so I can see who voted for who, and when they voted. The order of names is in the order the vote was cast.

Sorry if its confusing, I can change the list I post to be consistent with yours if that will make life easier.
Nah, do your thing. I usually don't use your lists, I just check them to see if the seem right when I have the chance. You all do what works best for you.

[Blaster Master]

For the record this is false. I have never accused someone of being to "gung ho". I am the 6th most active posting player. I do not think the number of posts indicate anything (except maybe a little much involvement in the game ;) ). Since I am voting to lynch you on the basis of information provided to us by the only person who has the ability to provide townspeople info (our dead detective), and the fact that you lied (lynch all liars). Also considering the fact most of your "useful" reputation is based on math and probabilities, I feel confident in my vote for you.

It may not have been you that made the suggestion, but I'm quite sure there was a suggestion made that analysis and lots of posting is often either a mafia or power role tell. And this argument is completely non-sensical as well. CaerieD has ONE breadcrumb, and it's 99% likely that it was Menocchio. If it wasn't him, then it still makes it equally likely that it was me or Autolycus that shouldn't be trusted. Other than her single breadcrumb, any other distrusts she had are nothing more than conjectures that are as valuable as anyone elses.

And lying? The only accusation I've seen of me lying was with regard to my trust list, which I felt I've adequately defended twice, and yet I keep getting accused of lying, without regard to those defenses. So, either address my logic in those defenses, point out another place you think I lied, or give it up.

The only "useful" part of my reputation is my mathematical analysis? Let me ask you then... why would a mafia who, based on the original understanding of the beat cop, could potentially use his investigations to hide his status go through the effort to prove it is actually very useful information? Further, I am quite certain that both you and Gadarene are mafia, based on my analysis of your voting patterns and starting this bandwagon against me. I guarantee that when I either become a confirmed townie, or am dead, the rest of the town will find that analysis quite useful.

You could be town, to be honest I don't KNOW. All I KNOW is what I am, a vanilla citizen, and what the dead people are. One of these dead people happened to be a detective. I believe everything she said. That is the only logical way to look at her information. Unfortunately for you she said she didn't trust you. You are now saying she didn't trust you because of what I said?! Even though I didn't say it? Huh? Lie number 2? Or just an honest mistake, and why not point the finger at me?

As I stated above, the only reasonable thing that CaerieD said that is worth trusting is with regard to Menocchio. What if BOTH Autolycus and I are townies? It seems silly tome to assume we're both scum by the sole justification that she was "suspicious" of us with no more information about either of us than anyone else has. Otherwise, you're either naive OR you're deliberately trying to use this town's grief over her death by twisting her words to get the town to lynch ANOTHER townie.

[nesta]

I see the Blaster Master bandwagon has slowed down by one vote, and it doesn't seem as inevitable that it will go through as it did to me just a few minutes ago. In case the lynch mob is looking for other targets I'd like to put my vote where I think it really belongs.

Unvote Queuing
Vote Gadarene

This is because Queuing has had good reasons for why he's voted for Blaster Master, but Gadarene mostly hasn't. She also seemed quick to pick up the "Blaster Master was the breadcrumb" theory that I find flawed and run with it. Combine this with her unsound "kill me to prove I'm a civilian" strategy and it makes me think that between her and Queuing, she is slightly more likely to be scum than he is.

[Gadarene]

Him. He. Thanks. :)

[nesta]

Him. He. Thanks. :)

Sorry about that. I think my mind was stuck on remembering CearieD was a she and somehow that got applied to you. I'll try not to let it happen again.

[Gadarene]

Hey, no worries! Let me ask you a question, though: if I get lynched and it turns out that I'm a vanilla townie, will you give my scum list any more credence than you do now?

[Autolycus]

Me and my buddies got's to talk' last night bout all tha crazy shit's that been goin' ons in town lately-like, and we's came up with the followin' obsavations.

Firsts of all, we's cant tell for shit if Blaster Master is talkin' straight or maybe just pullin' it outs his ass, but regardsless he's postin' the best analyseses in towns so fars' Wouldn't make much sense if he's were Mafia, but then's again maybe it's a smokescreen. I's gots no clue, but it struck me's and my buddies eye.

Ands another thing, Gadarene and Zuma seems awfully buddy-buddy like to be havin' such a ruff-n-tumble argument and shit. I is probably just goin' crazies, but I think's they are both scum. Playin' games to confuses simple guyz like me. It woulds behoove youz fella's to look at their post's again. Hehe, I said "behoove"s in a sentance. Mum woulds be proud.

My friend's Japanese and he's always tellin's me "the nail that sticks out gets hammered down" So far's the only hammered I want is the alcoholic kind.

I'm goin's to keep my vote for Menocchio, because he still's got my goat. Nobody get's m y goat without me permission.

[nesta]

Hey, no worries! Let me ask you a question, though: if I get lynched and it turns out that I'm a vanilla townie, will you give my scum list any more credence than you do now?
Definitely. Today has given us a lot of info, and if one of the key players today gets lynched (you, Blaster Master, or Queuing) it'll draw some very clear lines between groups of suspected people. Your list will be a good place to start one way or the other.

[glee]

You're on my list, glee.


So: Pleonast, Blaster Master, storyteller0910, sturmhauke, glee, zuma.
Anyone else want to out themselves as scum?



I'm purty near-certain that the vast majority of the following posters, if not all of them, are scum:

Pleonast
Blaster Master
storyteller0910
glee



Once again, the vast majority of the following list are scum. ...

Blaster Master
Pleonast
storyteller0910
zuma
glee
sturmhauke


What reason have you got to keep repeating I'm Mafia? :confused:





<snip>
Pygmy Rugger made a mistake about me apologising for my absence and I trust Menocchio because of CaerieD.

unvote ChrisK
vote Pygmy Rugger


The theory MtS proposed was that I read that you and two others said they were going to be away in the Mafia thread. So, by voting for me, you're saying you're Mafia, and posted to them last night that you were going to be away?


You're confusing MadThe Swine's theory with my statement that you made a mistake.
Also Menocchio (who our detective vouched for) voted for you.
I don't have a lot of reason to think anyone is Mafia, but that's why I voted.

[Queuing]

And lying? The only accusation I've seen of me lying was with regard to my trust list, which I felt I've adequately defended twice, and yet I keep getting accused of lying, without regard to those defenses. So, either address my logic in those defenses, point out another place you think I lied, or give it up.

Why? You lied. You may have defended your lie, but big deal. You lied in the first place. I don't care what reason you have for your lie. This is a game of trust, and you lied. Why would I believe you now?

The only "useful" part of my reputation is my mathematical analysis? Let me ask you then... why would a mafia who, based on the original understanding of the beat cop, could potentially use his investigations to hide his status go through the effort to prove it is actually very useful information?

To give the appearance of being pro-town? It was math, that was it. While it may be useful it really isn't that useful. So the beat cops aren't 100%. I know that. I also know they have a 50/50 chance if they accuse someone. This is much better then my 1 in 31 chance. Therefore if I know someone is a beat cop, and they say X is scum, well I am a going to damn well vote with them. Just like if I knew who the masons were I would vote with them, as they have better odds then I do.


In fact I would like someone to point out this "great" analysis that you have done. All you have done is math, and defended yourself. You have basically defended yourself by saying "Hey I am town, look at all my great analysis (Math), and how hard Queuing is going after me. He is scum. I am town. I post a lot. My analysis is great. Of course one of the few statements our Detective made mentioned me, but come on! She also said she trusted someone else. That is for sure the crumb. Don't be dumd. I am town. My analysis (math) is great"

The only "great" analysis I have seen is by Rysto. All you have done is Math, all Zuma has done is accuse me over and over again for the same reason. All I have done is believe everything the one trusted person with information has said.

This is why I am voting on what CaerieD said. Guess what? She has better odds then I do. She KNEW something. I don't know what that was. Either do you!

Yes, it may have been Menecchio. Why that is more likely to be the crumb then you or Autocylus, I don't understand. Well I do understand. I get why you, and others, think it was Menecchio. However you all act like you KNOW. You don't know. Unless you are scum. Your odds go down, down a lot. You know who *maybe* 10 other people are.

Further, I am quite certain that both you and Gadarene are mafia, based on my analysis of your voting patterns and starting this bandwagon against me. I guarantee that when I either become a confirmed townie, or am dead, the rest of the town will find that analysis quite useful.

Well I am not Mafia. I have no idea what Gadarene is. I thought he was Mafia on the first day. Check my mistrust list. He was on it.

Honestly I don't see either one of us playing for much longer.

Say I am successful, and you are scum and lynched today. I die tonight most likely.

Say I am successful, and you are lynched but you are town. In this scenario I make it through the night (probably again), and I am lynched (probably rather quickly) by the town. They will find out I am town then, but to late for me.

Say you are succesful, and get me lynched today. They find out I am town, you make it through the night, and they lynch you tomorrow.

Either way, I think we both die soon :).

As I stated above, the only reasonable thing that CaerieD said that is worth trusting is with regard to Menocchio. What if BOTH Autolycus and I are townies? It seems silly tome to assume we're both scum by the sole justification that she was "suspicious" of us with no more information about either of us than anyone else has. Otherwise, you're either naive OR you're deliberately trying to use this town's grief over her death by twisting her words to get the town to lynch ANOTHER townie.

I love how you never consider the other side, how you dismiss it, how confident you are that you are correct. True, all 3 of you could be town. I don't think so, but hey I could be wrong. Your arrogance astounds me. You don't even consider the idea that CaerieD could have left a different crumb

I am wondering have you got these psychic abilities of yours tested? I mean its amazing that you absolutely, without a doubt, 100% KNOW what CaerieD did.

[Gadarene]

What reason have you got to keep repeating I'm Mafia?

Because you're siding with all of the people I think are Mafia, and against many of the people I feel I have a reason to trust.

[Santo Rugger]

<snip>
You're confusing MadThe Swine's theory with my statement that you made a mistake.
Also Menocchio (who our detective vouched for) voted for you.
I don't have a lot of reason to think anyone is Mafia, but that's why I voted.

What was the mistake I supposedly made, if you're not referring to what MtS proposed?

[glee]

Because you're siding with all of the people I think are Mafia, and against many of the people I feel I have a reason to trust.


Long ago, I said I trusted Pleonast + Blaster Master. I was impressed with their analysis.
As I said, I don't have strong views on who is Mafia, but I confidently assume that posters who are actively helpful are more likely to be Citizens.
I haven't made any comment on anyone else on your list.




<snip>
You're confusing MadThe Swine's theory with my statement that you made a mistake.
Also Menocchio (who our detective vouched for) voted for you.
I don't have a lot of reason to think anyone is Mafia, but that's why I voted.


What was the mistake I supposedly made, if you're not referring to what MtS proposed?


You said I had excused my absence. I hadn't.
MadThe Swine may take it further, but the mistake exists.
I wouldn't have changed my vote to you, except that FernForest convinced me the Town should be moving towards a lynching majority to provoke a defence.

[Pleonast]

Queuing, can point out specifically where Blaster Master lied (or, link back to a post where you already did)? Specifically, can you link to two or places where he contradicts himself?

[Queuing]

I wouldn't have changed my vote to you, except that FernForest convinced me the Town should be moving towards a lynching majority to provoke a defence.

I believe we have reached this point. IMO, once you get 6 votes on you, you should consider defending yourself. Only to avoid the 12 hour countdown occurring without a chance to say anything. Each person can choose their own time.

I am looking forward to JSexton making an appearance. Even though we have no idea what role he will be (with the best analysis IMO to this point suggesting Chrisk/JSexton was mafia) I think a number of other people are waiting too. To try to help out those who may need a vote recount (and since we have had a unvotes and revotes) here is the latest list of votes of those who have 3or more (in a smaller and maybe easier to read format):

7 -Blaster Master – (queuing, Gadarene, pimaspinner, hocow, pygmy rugger, ArizonaTeach, winston smith)
5 - Pleonast – (Lakia, Kat, suburban plankton, Fernforest, fretfulporcupine)
4 - Queuing – (Zuma, starving but strong, kivvik, pleonast)
3 - PygmyRunner – (madtheswine, menecchio, glee)
3 -Gadarene - (smitty, Blaster Master, Nesta)

[MonkeyMensch]

Winston Smith called for me to justify or update my suspicion list in #936 and I am happy to, given the changes that have occured.


What the hell are you talking about? I never asked you for anything. We've not even had any dialog, you and I. Although I vaguely recall you casting suspicion my way 4 or 5 hundred posts ago.

WTF? :confused:

My misreading. It was your post (#936) but you were quoting Forest Fern at the time. No offense intended. For those of you keeping score, my explanations were at the behest of FF. Carry on.

[Queuing]

Queuing, can point out specifically where Blaster Master lied (or, link back to a post where you already did)? Specifically, can you link to two or places where he contradicts himself?
Oh man, are you serious? He admits to lieing. He lied on his Mistrust list the first day, about who and why he put on there. If I really must I suppose I could look through the whole thing, but damn, that will take forever!

I wasn't even the one to catch him on it. I don't know who it was, but it was around page 17 I think.

[Suburban Plankton]

For Pete's sake, people, slow down! How's a guy supposed to keep up with the thread and still be able to earn a day's wages? We've gone through another 150 posts since I had the chance to glance in here!

It's getting to the point where I'm ready to jump on whatever bandwagon will get this day over with the quickest, just so that we can end the bickering that's going on right now, and get some solid information. Either we lynch scum, and find even more scum by association, or we lynch town, and we all have to erase our cheat sheets and start from scratch. Or, perhaps we catch the Serial Killer and everyone, Mafia and town combined, can be happy.

But right now, it seems we've reached a point where we've got a small group of people who are repeating the same arguments over and over again, and frankly its getting a little tiresome.

I'm not changing my vote until someone gives me a reason to. That would either be Pleonast posting a good defense, or someone else incriminating himself. I did see a couple posts from the last few hours that interested me as I was skimming them here at work, but I'll have to wait until this evening when I have a chance to spend some "quality time" with the thread before I can tell if it's enough to change my vote.

[Blaster Master]

Why? You lied. You may have defended your lie, but big deal. You lied in the first place. I don't care what reason you have for your lie. This is a game of trust, and you lied. Why would I believe you now?

Nice try, you're still claiming I lied, but it WASN'T a lie. I was TRYING to point out that, since I knew it was basically random information, I was taking advantage of it by deliberately including random information which is no different than you, or anyone else, including "gut reactions" based on zero information.

Let me give you another way to look at it. Did anyone have any good reasons to trust anyone yesterday other than maybe the masons and the detective? A hunch is random, thus, even the one or two on my trust list that were hunches were random as well. From an information theory perspective, it was nothing more than an initialization step.

What I was TRYING to point out, was individuals who now hold it against me that I trusted a particular individual with little cause (Lakai), when every townie's was random, makes no sense, unless you have enough reason to assume Lakai is scum. Otherwise, you've done nothing but point out that you saw an unexpected result in a random list... well, that DOES happen, they ARE random. If you're going to accuse me for trusting Lakai for little reason then, under that logic, you should distrust BOTH of us.

My other point was, the only lists that are NOT random are the mafia and masons(who will cross-trust eachother) and the cops (who will trust or distrust whom they've investigated). With the knowledge that my list was pretty much random, and ensuring at least one trust that was baseless, I was attempting to gauge if any mafia would attempt to mimic my list, based on my high level of trust, to hide. Thus, knowing no one else had a reason to include that individual, I could use that information to conclude that person was likely mafia.

Either way, describing my trust list as a lie, is deliberately misleading on YOUR part.
To give the appearance of being pro-town? It was math, that was it. While it may be useful it really isn't that useful. So the beat cops aren't 100%. I know that. I also know they have a 50/50 chance if they accuse someone. This is much better then my 1 in 31 chance. Therefore if I know someone is a beat cop, and they say X is scum, well I am a going to damn well vote with them. Just like if I knew who the masons were I would vote with them, as they have better odds then I do.

In fact I would like someone to point out this "great" analysis that you have done. All you have done is math, and defended yourself. You have basically defended yourself by saying "Hey I am town, look at all my great analysis (Math), and how hard Queuing is going after me. He is scum. I am town. I post a lot. My analysis is great. Of course one of the few statements our Detective made mentioned me, but come on! She also said she trusted someone else. That is for sure the crumb. Don't be dumd. I am town. My analysis (math) is great".

The only "great" analysis I have seen is by Rysto. All you have done is Math, all Zuma has done is accuse me over and over again for the same reason. All I have done is believe everything the one trusted person with information has said.

I've provided plenty more analysis than my math, and several other citizens have stated such. Ignoring my other analysis is intellectually dishonest on your part. If you don't believe me, I invite you to re-read some of my earlier posts. I never claimed all of my analysis was great, or even correct, but at least I'm doing more than pointing fingers in random directions.

This is why I am voting on what CaerieD said. Guess what? She has better odds then I do. She KNEW something. I don't know what that was. Either do you!

Yes, it may have been Menecchio. Why that is more likely to be the crumb then you or Autocylus, I don't understand. Well I do understand. I get why you, and others, think it was Menecchio. However you all act like you KNOW. You don't know. Unless you are scum. Your odds go down, down a lot. You know who *maybe* 10 other people are.

You and Gadarene are the only two still desperately trying to hold onto that idea; it isn't working. It may have been Menocchio is like saying the sun may come up tomorrow... sure, there's a possibility the sun won't rise, but I sure as hell won't bet on it. Thus, she actually didn't know anything more than anyone else, and the rest of your logic falls apart.

Well I am not Mafia. I have no idea what Gadarene is. I thought he was Mafia on the first day. Check my mistrust list. He was on it.

Honestly I don't see either one of us playing for much longer.

Say I am successful, and you are scum and lynched today. I die tonight most likely.

Say I am successful, and you are lynched but you are town. In this scenario I make it through the night (probably again), and I am lynched (probably rather quickly) by the town. They will find out I am town then, but to late for me.

Say you are succesful, and get me lynched today. They find out I am town, you make it through the night, and they lynch you tomorrow.

Either way, I think we both die soon :).

Well, you're right there; I doubt any of the three of us has long to live. However, I assure you, lynching me today would be disasterous for the town.


I love how you never consider the other side, how you dismiss it, how confident you are that you are correct. True, all 3 of you could be town. I don't think so, but hey I could be wrong. Your arrogance astounds me. You don't even consider the idea that CaerieD could have left a different crumb

I am wondering have you got these psychic abilities of yours tested? I mean its amazing that you absolutely, without a doubt, 100% KNOW what CaerieD did.

Again, misrepresenting what has been said. I never claimed 100% knowledge that Menocchio was her breadcrumb. However, were I in a jury ready to convict someone and put them to death, I certainly believe it was her breadcrumb beyond a shadow of a doubt. You wanting to lynch someone off of such a miniscule possibility (that I was actually her breadcrumb), against the analysis of just about everyone else in the thread, looks like desperation to draw evidence against someone you know to be town; that sort of behavior is a scum tell to me.

[Blaster Master]

Oh man, are you serious? He admits to lieing. He lied on his Mistrust list the first day, about who and why he put on there.
Further, a misrepresentation. I stated in my first defense of the idea that my mistrust list was accurate of my suspicions, and only stated that my trust list was "largely hogwash" (or for improved comprehension, read "largely random").

I have now restated my defense of that idea THREE times. I expect you will either actually address my reasoning, or stop misrepresenting what I said.

[NAF1138]

7 -Blaster Master – (queuing, Gadarene, pimaspinner, hocow, pygmy rugger, ArizonaTeach, winston smith)
5 - Pleonast – (Lakia, Kat, suburban plankton, Fernforest, fretfulporcupine)
4 - Queuing – (Zuma, starving but strong, kivvik, pleonast)
3 - PygmyRunner – (madtheswine, menecchio, glee)
3 -Gadarene - (smitty, Blaster Master, Nesta)

Did FCoD unvote Pygmy Rugger and I missed it?

Because I would believe it...but I don't see where it happened.

[Queuing]

Ok, here are what the other people have said about Blaster Master.

Here is a post 626 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414619&postcount=626) where he plays semantics with words.

Here is a post 766 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8416644&postcount=766) from Rysto, also outlining some of the things he has done.

Here is post 771 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8416681&postcount=771) and post 779 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8416851&postcount=779) from Kat, accusing him of lieing.

Here is another post 713 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415796&postcount=713) from Kat, about BM's lieing.

Here is Aguecheek in post 731 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8416181&postcount=731) talking about how he pointed out CaerieD to be killed. Which we all know she was.

Kat again, post 670 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415262&postcount=670) about his fake list of mistrusts.

More from Kat, in post 630 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414652&postcount=630) again all about his odd lists.

Look, this time its Rysto in post 650 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415079&postcount=650)

[Winston Smith]

Jesus, people. Can't fucking lynch somebody already and get this goddamned game moving again?!?

Is this some bizarro version of the game in which we die of old age instead of getting lynched? My analysis of MadTheSwine's proddings against me is that he's trying to provoke me into doing something stupid and amusing. I'm almost there. Please, please, please can get on with it?!?

Love,

Winston

:)

[Queuing]

Hmm, no I think I made a mistake there. Oops, these lists are getting very hard to keep straight.

Blaster Master that would be true. If this was you know real life. It is not however. It is a game. A game of little information and trust.

I have also stated that its possible, maybe even likely, that the crumb was Menecchio. However you seem to think it MUST be him. That is impossible to know.

However we seem to be going in circles here. I have stated my reasoning many times. You have stated your reasoning many times. I don't think, without any more information that is not forthcoming (despite your dire threat of it being a GRAVE mistake for the town, and attempted sly comments suggesting you are a power role) that anything different can be said here. I think you are scum, you think I am scum. I will not drop "sly" hints at being a power role, as I am not one, I will not false claim in hopes of living another day and drawing out the real role. I am not mafia. I am town, just vanilla citizenry.

You can attempt to call me dumb without saying so, you can attempt to call me stupid and illogical without saying so. I don't care, continue with your name calling, a pattern you have followed throughout the game.


It would be funny if we were both wrong.

[Pleonast]

Jesus, people. Can't fucking lynch somebody already and get this goddamned game moving again?!?I'd be happy to vote for anyone on my mistrust list, but apparently the votes are headed for myself and Blaster Master, who I'm inclined to trust. So pardon me for not switching my vote. :)

[Winston Smith]

I'd be happy to vote for anyone on my mistrust list, but apparently the votes are headed for myself and Blaster Master, who I'm inclined to trust. So pardon me for not switching my vote. :)

Where's your sense of teamwork? :dubious:

[JSexton]

Whew. Lots to digest. Fortunately, there’s some fairly transparent people in this town. Here’s my list, starting from the scum to the town:

Blaster Master. Serial Killer. He’s posting some neat analysis, because he wants to be perceived as useful. It’s also in his interest to catch scum. Trouble is, he got a little over eager and lied, and also made it clear that he’s got a killing role (317). That leaves one role, SK. I think he’s the best lynch today, in order to cut down on the number of deaths each night.

Pleonast: Scum. This surprises no one, of course. His bandwagonning makes his role pretty clear. Posts 391 and 461 are especially telling.

Queueing: Scum. His fishing for experienced players (268) and his misrepresentation of chrisk’s hypothetical cop claiming were pretty scummy. The best, though was post 581. A great big link-filled post analyzing CaerieD’s posts for breadcrumbs. Two problems: One: he got the conclusion wrong; Menocchio was clearly the crumb. Two, check the timestamps. That post was made thirty minutes after the dayscene went up. No way he read it, did that research, and came to his conclusion in that time. Not bloody likely. No, he and the rest of the mafia figured she was the cop, and planned this gambit. He may have even had that post ready to go.

glee: Scum, probably. Posts 267, 363 raise my hackles, so to speak. And I love post 884. What, scared of me? You want to lynch me before I get a chance to talk? How very townie of you.

Aguecheek: Scum, I think. Posts 393 stood out. Also, he’s been going after some perceived “easy” mislynches, like sturmhawke and Autolycus.

Gadarene: Potentially scum.I don’t like the attack on StarvingBut Strong in post 456. Unforced vanilla claim. OTOH, I agree with several of your targets, and post 822 is fairly townie.

Brewha: leaning scum. I don’t like his unforced claim in post 719. Bit too defensive.

-----------------------

Winston Smith: Ugh. I want to call you scummy, but I also know that you’re, er, unconventional when it comes to this game. I don’t know what to think of you yet.

ArizonaTeach, Flying Cow, Fretful, hocow, malacandra, pimaspinner, pygmy runner, smitty, starvingbutstrong, Suburban Plankton: Neutral on all of you. Nothing you’ve posted makes me put you in either category yet, although there are certain links to other people for some of you. We’ll know more after more confirmed roles.

---------------------------

Fern Forest, Kat, Kivvik, Lakai, MadTheSwine, nesta, MonkeyMensch, : Leaning town for minor reasons.

sturmhawke: Leans town for minor reasons, and I greatly dislike the bandwagon on him. He may well be getting set up.

Autolycus: Here’s a controversial one. I firmly believe Auto is town.

Rysto: Seems quite town, based on analysis.

zuma/ Strongly believe zuma to be town. Her (?) analysis is very strong, and displays some very subtle townie tells. If she’s scum, my hat’s off.

Menocchio: I believe he’s confirmed by CaerieD. Potentially the Godfather, of course.

---------------------------

I think that covers everyone.

I don’t want the day over just yet, but my vote will be on Blaster. I’d like a claim out of him. I’d also be fine with lynching any of the top five people up there, but I think Blaster is the most pressing.

[NAF1138]

Ok, let me see if I cant get my first accurate vote count of the day up.



7- Blaster Master - (Queuing, hocow, pimaspinner, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, Winston Smith)
5- Pleonast - (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton)
4- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio, glee)
4- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast)
3- Gadarene -(Smitty,Blaster Master, nesta)
1- Rysto - (sturmhauke)
1- hocow - (Malacandra)
1- Menocchio - (Autolycus)
1- FCoD - (storyteller0910)
1- Aguecheek - (MonkeyMensch)

[Pleonast]

Pleonast[/b]: Scum. This surprises no one, of course. His bandwagonning makes his role pretty clear. Posts 391 and 461 are especially telling.Thanks, for the analysis, JSexton, even if you're wrong on a few points. :D

What do you find telling about my posts (391 and 461)? I'm stating who I trust and don't, and giving reasons. Do you not like lists? Or, do you disagree with my choices?

And when have I bandwagonned? I was the first to vote for Enfant Terrible. And although I wasn't the first (maybe fourth?) to vote for Queuing, he was on my mistrust from the previous day (and I came out early against him too). And you seem to think he's scum, so it's not like you think it's a poor choice.

Furthermore, I helped stop the bandwagon against sturmehauke, even though I don't trust him. And you agree that he shouldn't have been bandwagonned.

Other than disagreeing about Blaster Master, we seem to mostly agree. And notice I'm not going to vote for him, when a bandwagon could easily converge on him.

You're even on my trust list, because of how chrisk played yesterday. Color me perplexed.

[Lakai]

Queueing: Scum. His fishing for experienced players (268) and his misrepresentation of chrisk’s hypothetical cop claiming were pretty scummy. The best, though was post 581. A great big link-filled post analyzing CaerieD’s posts for breadcrumbs. Two problems: One: he got the conclusion wrong; Menocchio was clearly the crumb. Two, check the timestamps. That post was made thirty minutes after the dayscene went up. No way he read it, did that research, and came to his conclusion in that time. Not bloody likely. No, he and the rest of the mafia figured she was the cop, and planned this gambit. He may have even had that post ready to go.
Here is what I think of Queuing. I think he is just new to the game and is trying out different strategies. He first asked people to reveal their experience, then he thought chrisk’s cop claim was serious and then he took someone’s (I think pimaspinner) night drinking posts as evidence of some alliance.

Also, on Day 1 no one defended him. I did not trust him, but no one knew anything then. If he were mafia, I would think that at least someone would have stood up for him. His analysis in post 581 is suspicious, but CaerieD did not make many substantial posts, so he could have created it in 30 minutes.

I understand what Gadarene is trying to say about a network. Let me try to illustrate it a little better.

People who voted for Sturmhauke:

Queuing
Menocchio
Fern Forest
Aguecheek
CaerieD

Menocchio switched his vote. CaerieD died and Fern Forest’s vote was not too serious.

Now lets see who got suspicious of Queuing right after he voted for Stumhauke in post 304:

Blaster Master puts Queuing on his mistrust list. (309)
Pleonast does the same (322)
Blaster Master asked the Vig to kill Queuing (322)
Zuma votes for Queuing (407)
Fretful votes for Queuing (421)
FlyingCowOfDoom distrusted Queuing (438)
Storyteller distrusted Queuing

On Day 2, Queuing starts things off by voting for Blaster Master.

FlyingCowOfDoom then voices his distrust of Queuing again.
Blaster Master, of course, does the same thing.
Pleonast votes for Queuing.
Zuma and Nesta both don’t like Queuing’s analysis of CaerieD’s breadcrumb.
MonkeyMesch becomes suspicious.
Mennicho and Starving cast votes for Queuing, but don’t seem too confident.

Here is what happens to Augecheek after he votes for Strumhauke (393)

Strumhauke throws a vote back at him.
Blaster Master defends Strumhauke from Augecheek (404)
Fern Forest voices distrust
Storyteller voices distrust (438)
Pleonast voices distrust (461)

On Day 2 Aguecheek has not made any votes yet:

FlyCowOfDoom voices distrust
MonkeyMesch votes for him (1025)
Pleonast voices his distrust

Queuing and Aguecheek both voted for Strumhauke and were both targeted by the same group of posters: FCD, MonkeyMesch, Pleonast, Blaster Master and Storyteller.

Now of those six, Pleonast, Blaster Master, FCD, and Storyteller voted for Enfant Terrible.

Out of that group, Pleonast and Blaster Master supported the trust and distrust system that lead to CaerieD’s death.

I know that I don’t have the post numbers for all my evidence, but if someone disagrees, then I'll look for the post number.

Now I really want someone to hang really soon, and I would be happy to see either Pleonast or Blaster Master take the drop.

[Autolycus]

I wants' to go to sleep, so let's end this night, capiche? I 'aint hoppin on no bandwagon, cuz I's would probably break it. haha.

Some'body's said Blaster Master the SK? Hmmm... that's seems fishy to me. I 'aint sayin's nothin' til I thinks about's it more, ok. Sadly thinkin' aints my fort.

[Aguecheek]

Posts 393 stood out. Also, he’s been going after some perceived “easy” mislynches, like sturmhawke and Autolycus.Whuh oh! I've been FOS'd!

May I respond? Actually, at this stage, I’d think the better question would be…should I respond?

There’s a reason you don’t see me in GD. Logical analysis isn’t my bag; I much prefer basing decisions on solid facts. sturmhauke’d been FOS’d by several people by the time I came along, with the same reasoning – he’d played before, he was good, he wasn’t killed by the mafia. Good enough for me to base a vote on him. Better, IMO, than random.org. Being new, and as a person, however, I felt a desire to explain myself. And apparently, did a rather poor job of it.

Like I said, there’s a reason I don’t post in GD. I voted for the same reasons as Queing, FernForest and CaerieD, no more, no less. I wanted to put some muscle behind it, is all.

As for Autolycus, you’d hardly call me the only one to point a finger at him.

Why haven’t I pointed the finger elsewhere? Because since Friday, I’ve had a total of about 3 hours to follow this thing, and I’m having a hard bloody time following the ins and outs and dictionary definitions of “hogwash.” I’ve been following this in dribs and drabs since this morning and have been thinking about my vote for the past 7 hours.

And here’s what I’ve come up with:

I agree that CaerieD’s breadcrumb was Mennochio. Any other interpretation is just too obtuse. Therefore, any other trust/distrust by the detective was supposition. Further, this is the closest to a fact that we’ve got. So I’ve got nothing else.

So I’ll go with my gut because I like the arguments for rather than against. Vote BlasterMaster.

[Gadarene]

Lakai:

Now I really want someone to hang really soon, and I would be happy to see either Pleonast or Blaster Master take the drop.

Yup. Nice analysis.

[Lakai]

Oh, I forgot something.

*grabs torch and starts handing out pitchforks*

Guys, lets bring Day 2 to an end. Blaster Master had his chance to talk and he will have 12 hours more after the final vote.

Unvote Pleonast. Vote Blaster Master.

That should make nine votes. Who wants to pull the trigger?

[NAF1138]

Because I have the time, and would rather put this up before I leave work for the day then try to figure out where I left off once I get home.


9- Blaster Master - (Queuing, hocow, pimaspinner, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, Winston Smith, Augecheek, Laki)
5- Pleonast - (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton)
4- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio, glee)
4- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast)
3- Gadarene -(Smitty,Blaster Master, nesta)
1- Rysto - (sturmhauke)
1- hocow - (Malacandra)
1- Menocchio - (Autolycus)
1- FCoD - (storyteller0910)
1- Aguecheek - (MonkeyMensch)


Blaster Master is WAY ahead with 9 votes. 1 more to start the 12 hour clock. And a reminder since that 10th vote may hit while I am asleep: THE CLOCK STARTS FROM THE TIME THE 10TH VOTE IS POSTED, not from when I announce it. You want to know when the day will end, look at the timestamp on the 10th vote and add 12 hours (that is if no one unvotes)

[Lakai]

NAF1138, for future reference, what time is it where you are located?

[NAF1138]

NAF1138, for future reference, what time is it where you are located?
It's 4:44pm on my computer clock

[Queuing]

To make it easier for you to see:

NAF1138 when does the day end if no one gets to 10?

[NAF1138]

To make it easier for you to see:

NAF1138 when does the day end if no one gets to 10?
Wednesday at Noon PST.

[Gadarene]

At some point, would it be fruitful to start a second thread?

[NAF1138]

Possibly, let me as TPTB if they thing that would be a good or a bad thing.

[Santo Rugger]

I think "tomorrow" morning would be a god time, myself.

[Queuing]

Queueing: Scum. His fishing for experienced players (268) and his misrepresentation of chrisk’s hypothetical cop claiming were pretty scummy. The best, though was post 581. A great big link-filled post analyzing CaerieD’s posts for breadcrumbs. Two problems: One: he got the conclusion wrong; Menocchio was clearly the crumb. Two, check the timestamps. That post was made thirty minutes after the dayscene went up. No way he read it, did that research, and came to his conclusion in that time. Not bloody likely. No, he and the rest of the mafia figured she was the cop, and planned this gambit. He may have even had that post ready to go.


Ah, good, you have had time to analyze and post. Something I think we were all waiting for.

My "fishing for experienced players" was actually just an idea to see if someone would say "I have never played this game before" and then start to be really sophisticated or something. I have received a lot of flack for this idea even though in the same post I also said "Or not", as in I don't know if this is a good idea, but its the first day, I am throwing out ideas. I have said this before, its the truth, but I won't bother saying it again. I really have no proof, just my word so you know, its up to all of you to decide what that is worth.

I didn't have time to do the analysis because of timestamps? Wow, crazy. I had been reading this thread from the beginning you know, taking notes, cutting and pasting peoples trust/mistrust list. It was quite easy to see who CaerieD had trusted and not trusted. As it was easy to see who she had voted for. Therefore I knew the potential crumbs she had left, I had them in a word doc. All I did was start on whatever page it was that it had been announced she had been killed, copy her name., ctrl-F, cut and paste what she had said. She has 18 posts in this thread. One was a goodbye, another (at least 1) was an "Oh, I am playing" post, so that leaves 16 at MOST. And I couldn't do that in 30 minutes. Well isn't the funny, because you know I did.

Again the Chrisk Cop thing has come up. This I find really funny because Blaster Master and I were actually on the same side here. As I have said a few times before no I didn't really think Chrisk was a cop. However, when we have 34 people to choose from (maybe 37, whatever around that number), and someone makes a role claim, however silly it may be, what do we have to lose by believing them at that time? Not forever, not as confirmed, but as on ok, why not you crazy bastard? Claim. We will believe you...for now. Just keep the info coming. It stops so do you. Its wrong, your dead. And guess what? His silly claim actually was TRUE! So what did we have to lose by saying ok, give us another one. Tell us what you found out, and keep telling us. Once we have a big enough sample size (if you go back to my posts I said day 3 we should test him) we test the sample size.

As the "obvious" crumb...well we all know how I feel about that. I don't know where this information of me not believing Menocchio as Town came from. I just choose to believe all of the detective's information until someone PROVES, not THINKS, one piece is wrong. If someone can come and show my how this is a hurtful, illogical thing to do, then please come do. In fact I have been saying this for a while now, and NONE of you have been able to say it is. All you say is "its obvious that its Menecchio". I wish I had your abilities to KNOW what others think.

[Hockey Monkey]

Here's some food for thought:
Almost all of the people who are voting for Blaster Master, I have a feeling to be town. If Blaster Master were town, I think the Mafia would have filled up the vote tally by now and started the countdown. Instead, suspicion was cast on Pygmy Rugger. Three out of his four votes are from people I feel are scum. Blaster's "family" is trying to save him. If I turn out to be wrong about Blaster, I am going to have to rethink EVERYTHING I'm thinking about EVERYONE. Also of the four people who have single votes against them, look closely at who cast them. I think at least 2 are scum waiting to see which way the wind will blow before switching. (As well as a couple of people who haven't voted yet).

[Blaster Master]

Okay, looks like you all want to put me on the chopping block. So, I suppose I'll start my defense... give me some time to get it composed.

[Lakai]

I believe only Rysto hasn't voted yet.

[Queuing]

I have it as Rysto (who voted and then unvoted for Chrisk/JSexton), and Brewha as not having voted. Whom did Brewha vote for?

[Lakai]

I have brewha as voting and then unvoting Blaster Master.

I missed him because NAF1138 counted too many votes for Pleonast, so I only looked for one person who did not vote.

It looks as if we have 29 voters and 2 undecided.

[NAF1138]

I have brewha as voting and then unvoting Blaster Master.

I missed him because NAF1138 counted too many votes for Pleonast, so I only looked for one person who did not vote.

It looks as if we have 29 voters and 2 undecided.


I did, where?

[Lakai]

I switched to Blaster Master. You have me twice.

[Blaster Master]

I'll give credit to JSexton, he was very close. I have been trying to make my role apparent for some time in hopes that the doctor could keep me alive at night to benefit the town. I had really hoped to not have to post this until at least the third or fourth day, but it looks like I don't have any choice but to role claim now.

Point 1: If I am the Vigilante, who have I killed thus far? On night 1, I killed Captain Carrot because, as I posted earlier, since the first kill is pretty much random, I wanted to ensure that the new players had their opportunity. On night 2, I killed CaerieD, for the reasons I stated earlier... she looked very scummy to me; I was wrong, and I apologize to her and to the town. I had asked for more input from the town, but only one person obliged and I didn't agree with his/her suggestion for me to kill Autolycus.

Point 2: If you are the Vigilante and had called for the Vigilante to kill Queuing, why didn't you kill Queuing last night? Simple, how suspicious would it have looked if both Queuing and CaerieD had died last night? I almost certainly would have been pegged.

Point 3: How can you prove you're the vigilante? Simple, don't lynch me today, and lynch either Gadarene or Queuing, either of which is almost certainly scum. I will target the opposite one. If the one I target tongiht comes up as scum, then you know for certain I'm not mafia.

Point 4: How can we be sure you're not the serial killer masquerading as the vigilanate? If I am actually the SK, then it's up to the real vigilante if he wants to kill me or not. However, I've made it very clear what I think the winning strategy is for both the SK and the VIG; and that is, to help the town.

Point 5: Let's say we believe you are the vigilante, what happens tonight?

This is a complicated one, so let me play out the options as I see them:

As I stated earlier, I am more than willing to kill whichever between Gadarene and Queuing is not lynched today; and if neither is lynched, I'll kill Gadarene. Since I'm not mafia, I believe if either of them (and certainly the one I kill tonight) will prove conclusively that I'm going pro-town.

Will the SK kill me? I can't imagine he will, because IMO his best option is to help the town AND have a shorter game; both of which I will help with. On top of that, I've made it clear I have no intention of hunting him down at this time. Further, if he gets revealed or put on the chopping block, he can always attempt to use me as a scape goat to try to prevent from getting lynched for at least another day.

Will the mafia kill me? Probably. However, they may not attack me if the one I'll target tonight is actually not mafia, in which case they will let me live to get lynched quickly tomorrow OR if they think the doctor or one of the GAs will protect me tonight.


Bottom line, you can lynch me now, and find out the hard way that the bandwagon on me was by the mafia OR you can let me live, get at least one more kill in tonight, and either let the mafia do your dirty work or lynch me tomorrow if by some miracle a miller blocks me, or the doctor sillily decides to protect Gadarene or Queuing.

If you do decide to lynch me, or let me live and I die tonight, here's the ones at whom I'd point the FoS in order of my certainty they're mafia and/or SK:

Gadarene
Queuing
Winston Smith
Aguecheek
Brewha
ArizonaTeach
Pleonast
hocow
Pygmy Rugger

To you all, especially the top four or five. If I'm lynched, I can almost guarantee most of you will follow.

[Rysto]

All right, here's my proposal. Whether or not Blaster_Master is the Vig or the SK, we can make use of him. Here's what we do: every Day, we vote to lynch somebody else, and also vote on a target for Blaster_Master. If Blaster_Master's target ever survives, we lynch him. That way, whether Blaster_Master is the Vig or the SK, we get the benefits of his kills? Any thoughts?

[Queuing]

Point 2: If you are the Vigilante and had called for the Vigilante to kill Queuing, why didn't you kill Queuing last night? Simple, how suspicious would it have looked if both Queuing and CaerieD had died last night? I almost certainly would have been pegged.


Huh? Particularly point 2. How would both I and CaerieD have died in the night, causing so much suspicion to fall on you? Are you claiming that the reason there was not a 3rd person was because of some sort of farfetched double kill of CaerieD?

I don't believe you. I think you are the SK. You can say what you want about how you think they should play, but the SK only wins by surviving until a win condition is in place for either town or mafia. They don't care who wins, they only care that they survive.

I think you are hoping that the Doctor protects you, the town lynches myself or Gadarene and you hope one of us is the Mafia. Well, for myself, that isn't true.

My vote stands.

On preview. Interesting idea Rysto. May I ask whom you would first propose?

Pleonast?
Gadarene?
Me?

[Queuing]

Damn I really did get use to this editing thing.

That is a good idea, but if he survives until a win condition is met, and he is the SK he wins. We all lose. So what do we do then?

[Hockey Monkey]

All right, here's my proposal. Whether or not Blaster_Master is the Vig or the SK, we can make use of him. Here's what we do: every Day, we vote to lynch somebody else, and also vote on a target for Blaster_Master. If Blaster_Master's target ever survives, we lynch him. That way, whether Blaster_Master is the Vig or the SK, we get the benefits of his kills? Any thoughts?

My initial thought is that he won't survive long enough for us to get that benefit. I have much pondering to do about this revelation.

[Kat]

How would that work out? Would he just take the 2nd highest vote? Because if we try to have 2 separate votes running, my head will explode.

[Kat]

That was a reply to Rysto's suggestion.

[Lakai]

All right, here's my proposal. Whether or not Blaster_Master is the Vig or the SK, we can make use of him. Here's what we do: every Day, we vote to lynch somebody else, and also vote on a target for Blaster_Master. If Blaster_Master's target ever survives, we lynch him. That way, whether Blaster_Master is the Vig or the SK, we get the benefits of his kills? Any thoughts?
It becomes a problem if Blaster Master is not the Vigilante. It does not matter anyway because there is no reason for the SK to believe that Blaster Master is not going to go after him.

Blaster Master dies either way.

[storyteller0910]

Augh, this is impossible. I had finally caught up, and started organizing my thoughts and getting ready to make a few points, and then Blaster Master drops his bombshell and everything I was going to say is basically out of date.

I don't know if I believe Blaster Master's claim or not, but I rather believe it's in our best interest to act as if we believe it until evidence against is presented. Other than that, jeez, I'll need until morning to form some kind of coherent analysis about where to go next. It's looking more and more like no one likes my FlyingCowofDoom reasoning, though, so I'm getting off the Ralph Nader ticket by saying -

unvote FlyingCowofDoom

[Queuing]

I don't know if you would be willing to do this, but I for one would like to hear what you were going to say, Storyteller0910

[Rysto]

I've had a second idea, but I'm not as sure about this one. I'm just going to throw this one out for discussion; I'm not endorsing the idea yet but I'd like everybody's thoughts. Don't lynch Blaster Master unless someone counter-claims Vig. If no one claims, Blaster Master gets the Doc's protection tonight. Basically, we want to make it so that the only way Blaster Master can get killed in during the Day, and we only do that if the Vig is willing to out himself. The nice thing about this is that we use the SK to implicitly confirm Blaster Master's claim -- he can't get rid of the Vig without outing himself, and then he'll lose.

Some issues:
- is it reasonable to trade the Vig for the SK?
- guaranteeing the Doc's protection gives the Mafia a free hand to kill whomever they like tonight
- a Mafioso could make a false claim and kill off our Vig. Is it reasonable to trade the Vig for a Mafioso? In our position, I'm not sure that it is; on the other hand, if Blaster Master is the Vig we're likely to lose him anyway

[storyteller0910]

I don't know if you would be willing to do this, but I for one would like to hear what you were going to say, Storyteller0910

Well, I'll post the one element of my thinking that still stands, even now. It's really tempting to assume that the Mafia is going to make our work really easy by voting in neat, clean, well-organized blocs, such that as soon as we identify one, we will have an easy time catching the rest. The problem with Gadarene's "network" theory is that it falls apart completely if the Mafia collectively have half a brain. I think we should be looking for patterns outside of the really obvious "X voted with Y, ergo X is aligned with Y" - unfortunately, with the amount of noise and signal we're getting in this thread, I'm not sure how easy that's going to be.

But that seems secondary right now to figuring out how to handle Blaster Master's role claim, and as I have no idea about that right now, I'm going to bed. More tomorrow.

[brewha]

All right, here's my proposal. Whether or not Blaster_Master is the Vig or the SK, we can make use of him. Here's what we do: every Day, we vote to lynch somebody else, and also vote on a target for Blaster_Master. If Blaster_Master's target ever survives, we lynch him. That way, whether Blaster_Master is the Vig or the SK, we get the benefits of his kills? Any thoughts?


That sounds like a plan to me. If he is indeed the Vig, we can use him to help us. I say we let him live for now.

As for Jsexton's suspicion of me - I don't know how I should defend my position without being defensive. I was unable to check this thread for almost 2 days, and when I did, I found two votes against me. I was just trying to explain my situation, I was not trying to be defensive (though now, despite my best efforts, I probably sound defensive).

So, in light of Blaster Master's claim,

Lynch Queuing

[Queuing]

Is this idea in cahoots with your previous idea? Blaster Master can only kill whomever the day votes decide for him to kill?

One flaw is that the SK wins if he lives. S/He doesn't really care that much who the Vig is, so long as they live they win. This does nothing to stop the SK.

I think the issues are still the same. By the end of the day one of these 4 people MUST be dead.

Blaster Master
Pleonast
Gadarene
Queuing

We only gain info by killing 1 of these people, IMO. It seemed that a number of us, 9, believe this should be Blaster Master. The question is, do we believe this role claim? I for one, do not.

We are running out of time. Really we have to do have someone at 10 by tomorrow evening. This triggers the 12 hour period, yes, however by noon wednesady someone dies anyway. This is close enough to tomorrow night that it should be done then to give the person whom we decide one last chance to claim.

To be honest, I don't see how any of the 4 listed above, can claim (beyond Blaster Master). I have already claimed. As has Gadarene. As has Pleonast (I think).

Oh god, I almost think it makes the least amount of sense to kill Blaster Master now. For the town we order him to kill one of us 3. We kill one of the other 2. This might give us the most information. Ugh...

unvote Blaster Master

Oh geez, did I just do that?

Lynch Pleonast

Selfishly, I want to add Zuma to the list, and make it 5. I think S/He is scum. However I don't think I can get that to fly. So umm...

Blaster Master I submit that you kill gadarene.


Oh man, did I just hit submit?

[ArizonaTeach]

All righty. You know what, I'm going to go forward on the assumption that he is the vigilante unless someone makes a counter claim, and at the moment, someone else has made the hairs on my neck stand.

unvote Blaster Master.

And because of the shout-out in this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8421128&postcount=1020), of which the only purpose I can fathom is to make people suspicious of an alliance between me and Gadarene in case he turns out to be scum, I will vote to lynch Gadarene.

[glee]

glee: Scum, probably. Posts 267, 363 raise my hackles, so to speak. And I love post 884. What, scared of me? You want to lynch me before I get a chance to talk? How very townie of you.


First, thanks for reading the entire thread. :)

Next, my post 884 suggested you be lynched because:


Now if JSexton has taken over from ChrisK, we should get something interesting.


I wasn't scared of you - I thought you would be much more active than ChrisK (as you are), and would respond interestingly to a threat. There had been some suspicion of ChrisK from his initial suggestion, which endangered the Town. Either he was Mafia or inexperienced.
N.B. At that point there were three players with more votes than you, two of whom I trusted.
I changed my vote later after a suggestion that the Town should be concentrating its votes on the leading players facing lynching.

In post 267 I have:

- a rules query
- a complaint about random voting (specifically me being targeted)
- a note on SK and Vig behaviour

I presume my complaining about random attacking raises your hackles?
So if I don't deny it, I'm Mafia, but if I do I'm suspicious? :confused:

In post 363 I said:

I've stuck in analysis and want to be judged on that.
If I post rubbish, lynch me.
If I get assassinated, you'll know my stuff was good.

I stand by that. :cool:

[brewha]

Just had another thought. If we can decide on a victim for Blaster Master tonight, this should work. We just have to convince the miller to block the SK. If Blaster Master does his job and there is one other kill,that means that the mafia and the Vig suceeded.

Of course, this would require the real Vig (assuming it's not Blaster Master) to kill someone other than who we decided on. If the town and Vig are on the same side, this should work.

[Winston Smith]

I'll give credit to JSexton, he was very close. I have been trying to make my role apparent for some time in hopes that the doctor could keep me alive at night to benefit the town. I had really hoped to not have to post this until at least the third or fourth day, but it looks like I don't have any choice but to role claim now.

Point 1: If I am the Vigilante, who have I killed thus far? On night 1, I killed Captain Carrot because, as I posted earlier, since the first kill is pretty much random, I wanted to ensure that the new players had their opportunity. On night 2, I killed CaerieD, for the reasons I stated earlier... she looked very scummy to me; I was wrong, and I apologize to her and to the town. I had asked for more input from the town, but only one person obliged and I didn't agree with his/her suggestion for me to kill Autolycus.

Point 2: If you are the Vigilante and had called for the Vigilante to kill Queuing, why didn't you kill Queuing last night? Simple, how suspicious would it have looked if both Queuing and CaerieD had died last night? I almost certainly would have been pegged.

Point 3: How can you prove you're the vigilante? Simple, don't lynch me today, and lynch either Gadarene or Queuing, either of which is almost certainly scum. I will target the opposite one. If the one I target tongiht comes up as scum, then you know for certain I'm not mafia.

Point 4: How can we be sure you're not the serial killer masquerading as the vigilanate? If I am actually the SK, then it's up to the real vigilante if he wants to kill me or not. However, I've made it very clear what I think the winning strategy is for both the SK and the VIG; and that is, to help the town.

Point 5: Let's say we believe you are the vigilante, what happens tonight?

This is a complicated one, so let me play out the options as I see them:

As I stated earlier, I am more than willing to kill whichever between Gadarene and Queuing is not lynched today; and if neither is lynched, I'll kill Gadarene. Since I'm not mafia, I believe if either of them (and certainly the one I kill tonight) will prove conclusively that I'm going pro-town.

Will the SK kill me? I can't imagine he will, because IMO his best option is to help the town AND have a shorter game; both of which I will help with. On top of that, I've made it clear I have no intention of hunting him down at this time. Further, if he gets revealed or put on the chopping block, he can always attempt to use me as a scape goat to try to prevent from getting lynched for at least another day.

Will the mafia kill me? Probably. However, they may not attack me if the one I'll target tonight is actually not mafia, in which case they will let me live to get lynched quickly tomorrow OR if they think the doctor or one of the GAs will protect me tonight.


Bottom line, you can lynch me now, and find out the hard way that the bandwagon on me was by the mafia OR you can let me live, get at least one more kill in tonight, and either let the mafia do your dirty work or lynch me tomorrow if by some miracle a miller blocks me, or the doctor sillily decides to protect Gadarene or Queuing.

If you do decide to lynch me, or let me live and I die tonight, here's the ones at whom I'd point the FoS in order of my certainty they're mafia and/or SK:

Gadarene
Queuing
Winston Smith
Aguecheek
Brewha
ArizonaTeach
Pleonast
hocow
Pygmy Rugger

To you all, especially the top four or five. If I'm lynched, I can almost guarantee most of you will follow.


You're the Vigilante,eh? We'll be sure to mention that at your funeral.

[Rysto]

Just had another thought. If we can decide on a victim for Blaster Master tonight, this should work. We just have to convince the miller to block the SK.
Millers block people, not roles. So unless the Miller knows who the SK is(if so, please speak up), this doesn't help.

[Queuing]

Just had another thought. If we can decide on a victim for Blaster Master tonight, this should work.

The miller blocks Players, not roles. So whom do you suggest is the SK and should be role blocked?

[glee]

I've had a second idea, but I'm not as sure about this one. I'm just going to throw this one out for discussion; I'm not endorsing the idea yet but I'd like everybody's thoughts. Don't lynch Blaster Master unless someone counter-claims Vig. If no one claims, Blaster Master gets the Doc's protection tonight. Basically, we want to make it so that the only way Blaster Master can get killed in during the Day, and we only do that if the Vig is willing to out himself. The nice thing about this is that we use the SK to implicitly confirm Blaster Master's claim -- he can't get rid of the Vig without outing himself, and then he'll lose.

Some issues:
- is it reasonable to trade the Vig for the SK?
- guaranteeing the Doc's protection gives the Mafia a free hand to kill whomever they like tonight
- a Mafioso could make a false claim and kill off our Vig. Is it reasonable to trade the Vig for a Mafioso? In our position, I'm not sure that it is; on the other hand, if Blaster Master is the Vig we're likely to lose him anyway

I like this analysis.

[Autolycus]

I'm's probably wrong here, like always, but's I believe's BlasterMaster more's than not. At first's I distrusted's him b/c he opened his damn yap so much, but at this's point in time I is inclined to trust 'im.

We's got 4 possible options right, town, vig, mafia, or SK. If he's was plain vanilla town, I dont think he's would have talked so friggen much. Puttin' a noose around 'is own neck, that's what. If he's was SK, then why didn't he kills me when asked? Nobody's loves me in this God-forsaken town, and people's been lookin' at me mighty suspicious-like lately. But hey, I never's understood those SK types.

So then he's either an honest vig or a lying mafia. See, if I know's one thing about Mafia, is that they's got a code. Flatout lying 'aint their style. Then's again, them's the old Mafia. Punk kids these day's aint got no class.

So I say's we trust him. Now, if ya's excuse me, the sun's set and shit, so I'm goin' down to tha bar with Storyteller.

[Queuing]

I'm's probably wrong here, like always, but's I believe's BlasterMaster more's than not. At first's I distrusted's him b/c he opened his damn yap so much, but at this's point in time I is inclined to trust 'im.

We's got 4 possible options right, town, vig, mafia, or SK. If he's was plain vanilla town, I dont think he's would have talked so friggen much. Puttin' a noose around 'is own neck, that's what. If he's was SK, then why didn't he kills me when asked? Nobody's loves me in this God-forsaken town, and people's been lookin' at me mighty suspicious-like lately. But hey, I never's understood those SK types.

So then he's either an honest vig or a lying mafia. See, if I know's one thing about Mafia, is that they's got a code. Flatout lying 'aint their style. Then's again, them's the old Mafia. Punk kids these day's aint got no class.

So I say's we trust him. Now, if ya's excuse me, the sun's set and shit, so I'm goin' down to tha bar with Storyteller.
So Autolycus, I have you as voting for Menecchio. Is this correct? Are you leaving it as such? A rather useless vote IMO. We need citizens to choose sides. We have 4 of them, 1 must appeal to you.

[Rysto]

I've had a second idea, but I'm not as sure about this one. I'm just going to throw this one out for discussion; I'm not endorsing the idea yet but I'd like everybody's thoughts. Don't lynch Blaster Master unless someone counter-claims Vig. If no one claims, Blaster Master gets the Doc's protection tonight. Basically, we want to make it so that the only way Blaster Master can get killed in during the Day, and we only do that if the Vig is willing to out himself. The nice thing about this is that we use the SK to implicitly confirm Blaster Master's claim -- he can't get rid of the Vig without outing himself, and then he'll lose.

Some issues:
- is it reasonable to trade the Vig for the SK?
- guaranteeing the Doc's protection gives the Mafia a free hand to kill whomever they like tonight
- a Mafioso could make a false claim and kill off our Vig. Is it reasonable to trade the Vig for a Mafioso? In our position, I'm not sure that it is; on the other hand, if Blaster Master is the Vig we're likely to lose him anyway
Oh yeah, there's one more potential problem. It's possible that Blaster Master is Mafia. If that's the case, then this would out our Vig to no good purpose.

[MonkeyMensch]

Gotta read and think, but in the meanwhile...

unvote aguecheek.

[Queuing]

Day 2 Votes

7 -Blaster Master – (Me, Gadarene (again), pimaspinner, hocow, brewha, pygmy rugger, ArizonaTeach, Winston, Aguacheek, Lakia)
Unvote – (gadarene, brewha, queuing, Arizona teach)
5 - Queuing – (menecchio, Zuma (again), starving but strong, nesta, kivvik, pleonast, brewha)
Unvote – Menechio, Zuma, nesta
5 - Pleonast – (Lakia , Kat, suburban plankton, mad the swine, Fernforest, fretfulporcupine, gadarene, queuing)
Unvote – (Lakia, MadtheSwine, gadarene)
4 -Gadarene – (Fern Forest, Chrisk (after unvote), smitty, Blaster Master, Nesta, Arizona teach)
(Unvote- Fern Forest, chrisk)
3 - PygmyRunner – (Zuma, madtheswine, menecchio, glee)
Unvote - Zuma
1 -Chrisk – (Rysto, FCOD, Kat, PygmyRugger, arizonateach, Lakia (after unvote), Winston, glee
Unvote –( Kat, Rysto, Lakia, FCOD, arizona, winston, glee, pygmy rugger)
1 - Rysto – (sturmhauke)
1 - Hocow – (Malacandra)
0 – Aguecheek – (Monekymensch)
Unvote – (Monkeymensch)
0 - FCOD – (fretful porcupine, storyteller)
Unvote – (Fretful, storyteller)
0 -Brewha – (fernforest, Monkeymensch)
Unvoted – fernforest, Monkemensch
0 - Fernforest – (Winston)
(Unvote – Winston)
0- Autocylus – (Chrisk, menecchio
Unvote – (Chrisk, menecchio
0 -Nesta – (sturmhauke, )
Unvote -sturm

[Autolycus]

So Autolycus, I have you as voting for Menecchio. Is this correct? Are you leaving it as such? A rather useless vote IMO. We need citizens to choose sides. We have 4 of them, 1 must appeal to you.

I'll tell's you what's useless. Pesterin' me to change my vote and lynch some poor schmuk who I's never even met b4. My vote stands, and you'd be wise to mind's your own business.

Your vote recount's inaccurate to fuck. Keep up this rate and I'll switch my vote's in a way youz might not like.

[Queuing]

Sigh, is it? Damn this shit is hard. Of course you didn't actually tell me HOW or anything.

[Autolycus]

Sigh, is it? Damn this shit is hard. Of course you didn't actually tell me HOW or anything.

Well, maybe's I was overzealous' in me's remarks. Upon's rereading over a brewsky or three, the count seems ok except for me'. I's was afraid you wuz porposefully tamperin' with tha tally or somethin'.

[StarvingButStrong]

My god. This game requires more reading than an Eng. Lit. course.

Sexton, thanks for your post. I was nodding along as I read, you seem most eloquent and your arguments well-founded. IOW, I agree with you mostly. ;)

But I'm having a big problem with following this:


Blaster Master. Serial Killer. He’s posting some neat analysis, because he wants to be perceived as useful. It’s also in his interest to catch scum. Trouble is, he got a little over eager and lied, and also made it clear that he’s got a killing role (317). That leaves one role, SK. I think he’s the best lynch today, in order to cut down on the number of deaths each night.



If, as you say, the SK is out to kill mafia, why aren't you saying, 'Here's a knife, go to my son and god bless'?

Why is 'cutting down the number of deaths each night' a goal to be sought? Citizen deaths, sure, but isn't the only thing better than a dead scum TWO dead scum?

I'm a total newbie, and I'm sure I misunderstand many of the finer points, but there have been several posts from different people all agreeing that the SK and VG will be going after Mafia at least in the early stages of the game. (Day 2 is early, yes?) And once the SK is dead, the Vig ceases to be, too, right?


So, assuming you have called everything correctly, that Blaster Master is the SK and Pleonast, Queuing, Glee, and Aguecheek are all mafia, we could have these two situations:

A) We hang Blaster Master today. The SK is dead, the Vig turns into an ordinary citizen. Tonight the Mafia kill the townie of their choice. Result come dawn of Day 3: Dead citizens - 7 Dead SK - 1 Dead Mafia *0*

B) We hang one of the four you call Mafia. The Mafia kill a townie of their choice. Overnight the SK kills another of the IDed Mafia. The Vig kills a third. Result come dawn of Day 3: Dead citizens - 7 Dead Mafia **3**

(Okay, this ignores protections and blockers and such, but...)


Please explain to me why you think it's, your words, pressing to kill the SK? Why isn't it better to be rid of three Mafia and leave the SK for another day?

[Gadarene]

Hmm. Now I'm not sure what to do. A sincere question: if I am lynched tonight, and I turn out to be vanilla town (which I will), will that give us any useful information? If so, then be my guest. I can and will offer no defense other than my vanilla-ness. It's becoming increasingly clear that I'm a bear of very little brain when it comes to this game. :)

I also like Rysto's idea about sparing Blaster Master unless there's a Vig counter-claim. While this point is a good one:

It's possible that Blaster Master is Mafia. If that's the case, then this would out our Vig to no good purpose.

I'd add that if Blaster Master is Mafia and we then lynch him on the strength of the counter-claim, we might lose our Vig but we'll have a bead on at least a few more scum as well. Even though storyteller is right that scum networks might be less telling (or at least not completely telling) if we assume that the scum has half a brain, I still guarantee that if Blaster Master does turn out to be scum, most of the rest of those on my list are too. (And I agree with Queuing that I really think zuma is scum...although admittedly that might just be because he/she really got my hackles up during our exchanges.)

In any event, I'd be satisfied switching my vote back again from Blaster Master to Pleonast---although I won't do it yet---if the people I trust as townies (Rysto and Lakai predominantly) continue to convince me that's a good idea.

[Lakai]

All righty. You know what, I'm going to go forward on the assumption that he is the vigilante unless someone makes a counter claim, and at the moment, someone else has made the hairs on my neck stand.

unvote Blaster Master.

And because of the shout-out in this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8421128&postcount=1020), of which the only purpose I can fathom is to make people suspicious of an alliance between me and Gadarene in case he turns out to be scum, I will vote to lynch Gadarene.

Why would the Vig role claim? Assuming both the SK and the Vig want to win (which is an assumption most of you are not making) the Vig dies as soon as the SK knows who he is. If the Vig role claims today, then the doctor will have him and Blaster Master to choose between and he might not guess right. It’s too much of a risk, I would lay low.

Oh yeah, there's one more potential problem. It's possible that Blaster Master is Mafia. If that's the case, then this would out our Vig to no good purpose.

Another possibility is that the doctor targeted himself last night, which is why we only got two kills. If that is the case then who ever did not get the kill last night knows who the doctor is. The doctor might get killed himself if he protects someone else tonight.

[Lakai]

You're the Vigilante,eh? We'll be sure to mention that at your funeral.
*Sigh*

Looks like there won't be bloodshed for a few days now.

[Queuing]

Hmm. Now I'm not sure what to do. A sincere question: if I am lynched tonight, and I turn out to be vanilla town (which I will), will that give us any useful information? If so, then be my guest. I can and will offer no defense other than my vanilla-ness.

Yeah, I think it will. It seems, to me, that we have 4-5 people who have very clearly come out on "sides". These 4-5 are BlasterMaster, Pleonast, Zuma (on one side), and you and me on the other. I can't speak for the other side, but I know that you and I it just kind of happened. No other boards or anything to chat on. If one of us dies, and one of them dies, maybe we can see who is right. Of course, I think its better if Pleonast and Zuma die then either you or me.

For the record my scum list suspects (I include the SK as scum) are:

Blaster Master
Pleonast
Zuma
Storyteller0910
Sturmhauke
Hocow
Autocylus.

There is a break between the top 3 and the rest. I truly believe the top 3 are scum. Storyteller made it on both Pleonast and Blaster Master's trust list. Sturmhauke and Hocow due to lack of posting and seemingly random, but completely safe votes. Autocylus because of his posts.

There we go, my list.

On preview, we have blood at noon Wednesday at the latest. I think the next days may go faster.

[Santo Rugger]

<snip>
Another possibility is that the doctor targeted himself last night, which is why we only got two kills. If that is the case then who ever did not get the kill last night knows who the doctor is. The doctor might get killed himself if he protects someone else tonight.

This is the one that scares me.

Blaster, yes or no question: Do you know who the Doctor is?

[ArizonaTeach]

Another possibility is that the doctor targeted himself last night, which is why we only got two kills. If that is the case then who ever did not get the kill last night knows who the doctor is. The doctor might get killed himself if he protects someone else tonight.One does not necessarily equal the other here. If the Doctor protected someone, all whoever tried to kill that person knows is that the person was protected by the Doctor, not that it was the Doctor him or herself....or even that the murderer was blocked, right?

[Hockey Monkey]

Day 2 Votes

7 -Blaster Master – (Me, Gadarene (again), pimaspinner, hocow, brewha, pygmy rugger, ArizonaTeach, Winston, Aguacheek, Lakia)
Unvote – (gadarene, brewha, queuing, Arizona teach)
5 - Queuing – (menecchio, Zuma (again), starving but strong, nesta, kivvik, pleonast, brewha)
Unvote – Menechio, Zuma, nesta
5 - Pleonast – (Lakia , Kat, suburban plankton, mad the swine, Fernforest, fretfulporcupine, gadarene, queuing)
Unvote – (Lakia, MadtheSwine, gadarene)
4 -Gadarene – (Fern Forest, Chrisk (after unvote), smitty, Blaster Master, Nesta, Arizona teach)
(Unvote- Fern Forest, chrisk)
3 - PygmyRunner – (Zuma, madtheswine, menecchio, glee)
Unvote - Zuma
1 -Chrisk – (Rysto, FCOD, Kat, PygmyRugger, arizonateach, Lakia (after unvote), Winston, glee
Unvote –( Kat, Rysto, Lakia, FCOD, arizona, winston, glee, pygmy rugger)
1 - Rysto – (sturmhauke)
1 - Hocow – (Malacandra)
0 – Aguecheek – (Monekymensch)
Unvote – (Monkeymensch)
0 - FCOD – (fretful porcupine, storyteller)
Unvote – (Fretful, storyteller)
0 -Brewha – (fernforest, Monkeymensch)
Unvoted – fernforest, Monkemensch
0 - Fernforest – (Winston)
(Unvote – Winston)
0- Autocylus – (Chrisk, menecchio
Unvote – (Chrisk, menecchio
0 -Nesta – (sturmhauke, )
Unvote -sturm

Queuing, are you trying to confuse the fuck out of everybody? You said that you had Autolycus voting for Menocchio, but then don't show it.

Autolycus, you said your vote stands, but I don't see you as having one. :confused:

I have:

Pleonast - 5 - Queuing, Kat, Sub P, Fern, Fretful Porpentine
Blaster Master - 7 - pimaspinner, hocow, pygmy, gadarene, winston, aquecheek, lakai
Queuing - 5 - kivvik, starvingbutstong, zuma, pleonast, brewha
Pygmy Rugger - 4 - FCOD, MtS, menocchio, glee
Rysto - 1- sturmhauke
hocow - 1 - malacandra
Gadarene - 4 - Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, arizonateach

Sorry for not capitalizing names, I was typing them out, not pasting, and please correct my count if it is wrong. As of post 1109, it's what I have.


Now for a little peek into my brain. If Blaster Master is Mafia, then the Mafia will kill whoever we tell the Vig to kill. The real Vig kills someone else. The SK kills whoever he wants to. Result is that we DON'T KNOW who's kill is who's. This could be a brilliant strategy. I don't know whether or not to believe Blaster Master's role-claim. The Doc could opt to protect him, but if the scum think they know who he is, this could be a way for them to get him when he protects Blaster instead of himself. If Blaster is the real Vig, then we might get a nights use out of him.

For now:unvote Blaster Master. I don't know who my new vote is going to yet, but it will either be Gadarene, Pleonast, or Queuing. Any of these we can get info from.

So make that Blaster Master - 6

[Queuing]

This is the one that scares me.

Blaster, yes or no question: Do you know who the Doctor is?
He said he killed CaerieD last night. Therefore there is no way he knows who the doctor is. The SK or Mafia might, but not BM.

[Fern Forest]

If, as you say, the SK is out to kill mafia, why aren't you saying, 'Here's a knife, go to my son and god bless'?Killing the SK not only slows the game down, in my chart it extended the game by one day, but in doing so it increases the number of players at the end from something like 4 to over 10. Which would make the game more deliberate and less chaotic. That way we'd only have 1 murder to puzzle over every night rather then 2 or 3.

I'm still happy with my vote. JSexton has a nice strong post with lots of declaratory statements. That would really paint a target on his back were he a mobster and proven drastically wrong a few times.

I do believe the VG is still town and even if he dies and the town wins, he wins. I thought that the SK wins by surviving but wins along with which ever other side survives. In other words he's a floater between the sides.

If I recall correctly Blaster Master who hypothsized that the Mob went for cowgirl and CaerieD was killed by one of the other roles. I do think I believe him. And I think a 1 for 1 claim is a positive for us. 50% will win the game for the town.

[Lakai]

One does not necessarily equal the other here. If the Doctor protected someone, all whoever tried to kill that person knows is that the person was protected by the Doctor, not that it was the Doctor him or herself....or even that the murderer was blocked, right?

Yes, but is there any reason for the Doc to block anyone but himself on the second night?

[Rysto]

Now for a little peek into my brain. If Blaster Master is Mafia, then the Mafia will kill whoever we tell the Vig to kill. The real Vig kills someone else. The SK kills whoever he wants to. Result is that we DON'T KNOW who's kill is who's.
Fine, but then we get the Mafia killing who we want to kill instead of who they want to kill. Plus, eventually we'd ask him to kill a Mafioso, which would put the Mafia in a tight spot.

[Gadarene]

Queuing:
Yeah, I think it will. It seems, to me, that we have 4-5 people who have very clearly come out on "sides". These 4-5 are BlasterMaster, Pleonast, Zuma (on one side), and you and me on the other. I can't speak for the other side, but I know that you and I it just kind of happened. No other boards or anything to chat on. If one of us dies, and one of them dies, maybe we can see who is right. Of course, I think its better if Pleonast and Zuma die then either you or me.

I agree with this and with the rest of your post.

Rysto:
Fine, but then we get the Mafia killing who we want to kill instead of who they want to kill. Plus, eventually we'd ask him to kill a Mafioso, which would put the Mafia in a tight spot.

Good point.

I'm so confused now. This is a hard game. :confused:

[Hockey Monkey]

Sorry Queuing, I see you already addressed to vote count whilst I was composing.

I'm still :confused: about Autolycus though.

[Hockey Monkey]

Fine, but then we get the Mafia killing who we want to kill instead of who they want to kill. Plus, eventually we'd ask him to kill a Mafioso, which would put the Mafia in a tight spot.

I'd hope that we asked him to kill a Mafioso straight off, not "eventually". If we unintentionally tell him to target town, then the Mafia gets 2 kills. :mad: I was sort of on board with your plan, but the more I think about it, not so much.

[Queuing]

Queuing, are you trying to confuse the fuck out of everybody? You said that you had Autolycus voting for Menocchio, but then don't show it.

Trying to? No. I have two documents going with votes, a spreadsheet and a word doc. I am posting from the word doc. I looked up Autocylus on my spreadsheet. Sorry about that. I think I will stop posting the votes. My confidence in my notes is waning for the people who haven't had many votes. I am confident the top 4 are correct however.

I reiterate my call for those who have "safe" votes to join the crowd, pick a side and vote for one of the top 4.

6 - Blaster Master - (Gadarene, hocow, pygmy rugger, Winston, Aguacheek, Lakia)
5 - Queuing - (Zuma, starving but strong, Kivvik, Pleonast, brewha)
5 - Pleonast - (Kat, Suburban plankton, Fernforest, fretfulporcupine, Queuing)
4 - Gadarene - (Smitty, Blaster Master, Nesta, Arizona Teach)

At least I hope so....

[Blaster Master]

This is the one that scares me.

Blaster, yes or no question: Do you know who the Doctor is?

No, but I have my strong suspicions.

Option 1: The doctor may protect me or not, and that is up to him whether he trusts my claim or not. As long as a strong possibility exists that he may be protecting me, I expect the mafia and SK may decide it's not worth wasting a hit on me.


Option 2 However, if you all believe I may be the SK, then here's a way to solve that problem without using a protection or outing the VIG. Don't lynch me, and don't protect me. If I'm the SK or mafia, then the VIG should target me and kill me tonight; he won't know the difference and he won't care because either is good for the town at this point. If I'm really the SK, then the VIG will then become a confirmed townie. However, this also counts on the mafia thinking i may be the SK and NOT taking a hit on me, because it is in their best interest to let the VIG kill me if I'm the SK because the wild card is gone, and the pro-town killer is gone, and one confirmed townie means fewer suspects for the remaining power-roles.


If we go with option one, I'm almost guaranteed to live, but I'm not sure how much that convinces you all that i'm the VIG and not the SK, especially if my night target ends up being a townie. If we go with option 2, and my night target ends up being either the SK or mafia, then I think it will essentially (or if it's the SK, actually) prove I'm the VIG.

Assuming none of the power roles do something to the detriment of the town, then if my night target doesn't die, I will not resist a lynching tomorrow.

That said, I'll repeat my request that we lynch one and target the other between Gadarene and Queuing. I'm far more convinced they're mafia than any other two individuals.

[Blaster Master]

I'd hope that we asked him to kill a Mafioso straight off, not "eventually". If we unintentionally tell him to target town, then the Mafia gets 2 kills. :mad: I was sort of on board with your plan, but the more I think about it, not so much.

The point is, if I kill someone who most likely would have been lynched the next day anyway, then it's still better than me not killing who we agree I should kill, because we would have ended up wasting a lynch on that other person instead, and gotten THREE kills in favor of the mafia instead of just two.

[Gadarene]

I was with you all the way, Blaster Master, until this.

That said, I'll repeat my request that we lynch one and target the other between Gadarene and Queuing. I'm far more convinced they're mafia than any other two individuals.

See, I'm positive I'm not mafia. (Honest! I even went back to my PM and checked.) So your determined belief that I am both rubs me the wrong way and makes me wonder why you profess to be so darned sure. You want to elucidate? Is it just that I targeted you, so you figure I must must must be scum? Is there any possibility in your brain that you're wrong about that?

Why us, for example, and not Pleonast?

[Lakai]

Fine, but then we get the Mafia killing who we want to kill instead of who they want to kill. Plus, eventually we'd ask him to kill a Mafioso, which would put the Mafia in a tight spot.

Ok, let’s go through all the scenarios.

If Blaster Master is the Vig, we get a second controlled killing. This would be great if Blaster Master is telling the truth and goes along with us.

If Blaster Master is mafia, he would theoretically only target townies. If we choose someone for him to kill, and that person is alive come morning, we can then lynch Blaster Master. In this scenario, the real vig would have to keep quiet and not kill who we tell Blaster Master to kill.

If Blaster Master is the SK, the Vig won’t kill him because he would be busy worrying if Blaster Master has the Doctor’s protection of not. The vig would have to wait for the doctor to die in order to strike. Meanwhile, Blaster Master enjoys the doctor’s protection and kills who we tell him.

Here is where things get tricky. If Blaster Master is the SK, and kills a Mafioso when we tell him, then the Vig would know that Blaster Master is the SK and he could then come out of the woodwork. Then we can lynch Blaster Master.

I can’t see Blaster Master winning if he is lying. If he is mafia or SK, he just postponed his execution. We can still lynch someone equally as suspect in the meantime.

Before I confuse NAF1138 even more by switching votes to Pleonast, I want to see what people think of this. Rysto, who would you vote for if Blaster Master agrees with this?

Blaster Master, would you go along with this?

[Santo Rugger]

He said he killed CaerieD last night. Therefore there is no way he knows who the doctor is. The SK or Mafia might, but not BM.

At first, I thought BM was FoS* with his claim, so I didn't pay much attention to the details. Now, I think we may be on to something. If we take a chance on him for tonight, and ask the Doc to protect him, he says he'll kill Gadarene. If we vote for Queuing, assuming BM is spot on, we can get rid of two scum by tomorrow morning. Depending on what the SK does, of course, maybe 3. If he's lying, we'll know first thing in the morning, and tomorrow's vote tally should only take 10 posts.

I can only see him being the Vig or SK, though, it's too much of a risk for him to claim the role if he's Mafia, for several reasons posted above.

As I see it, the other option is to vote for Pleonast. The countdown hasn't started, but I'm going to unvote BM . I'll recast my vote for one of the two midmorning.



*That means Full of Shit, right? Argh, I know what it means, but I don't know what it stands for, actually (Finger of Suspicion?).

[MadTheSwine]

I really don't think the real VIG should claim. Let Blaster live through the day, if he is lying, the real VIG will kill him tonight.

My vote stands with Pygmy Rugger.

[Blaster Master]

I was with you all the way, Blaster Master, until this.



See, I'm positive I'm not mafia. (Honest! I even went back to my PM and checked.) So your determined belief that I am both rubs me the wrong way and makes me wonder why you profess to be so darned sure. You want to elucidate? Is it just that I targeted you, so you figure I must must must be scum? Is there any possibility in your brain that you're wrong about that?

Why us, for example, and not Pleonast?

So far as I can tell, it looks like the main reason for the pleonast bandwagon is because of the trust/mistrust list and it looks more like an honest mistake than a scum tell, plus, I haven't seen his defense yet, so I'm just not as convinced.

I'm convinced you're scum for multiple reasons, including the bandwagon vote on Enfant Terrible and this bandwagon on me for what looks to me to be very flimsy reasoning. Bottom line, it doesn't matter, because one of the three of you will be lynched, I'll kill one, and we'll ask the SK to kill the third; so chances are that all three of you will die by tomorrow morning anyway, unless I'm lynched today.

[MadTheSwine]

Unless the doc protects him.

[Blaster Master]

*That means Full of Shit, right? Argh, I know what it means, but I don't know what it stands for, actually (Finger of Suspicion?).
Yes, FoS = Finger of Suspicion.

[Gadarene]

Lakai:
If Blaster Master is mafia, he would theoretically only target townies. If we choose someone for him to kill, and that person is alive come morning, we can then lynch Blaster Master. In this scenario, the real vig would have to keep quiet and not kill who we tell Blaster Master to kill.

There's another scenario. Given the 6-0 headstart the Mafia has in winnowing our numbers, they might be willing to sacrifice one of their members to keep us in the dark for a day or two longer. Which means that Blaster Master, if he is Mafia, might not have any qualms about killing a Mafia member at our behest over the night to establish his legitimacy...as long as it was a Mafia member whose death he felt wouldn't do too much damage in the long run.

So I propose that if we do go along with this, we choose only suspects with seemingly well-established networks---high-value suspects, as it were---for Blaster Master to kill.

I'm assuming Queuing is town, by the way, but I have to say that I could be wrong about that. I'm not wrong about me, however.

[Gadarene]

Blaster Master:

I'm convinced you're scum for multiple reasons, including the bandwagon vote on Enfant Terrible and this bandwagon on me for what looks to me to be very flimsy reasoning. Bottom line, it doesn't matter, because one of the three of you will be lynched, I'll kill one, and we'll ask the SK to kill the third; so chances are that all three of you will die by tomorrow morning anyway, unless I'm lynched today.

If you're wrong about me, to what extent does that throw your personal worldview out of whack?

[Blaster Master]

Ok, let’s go through all the scenarios.

If Blaster Master is the Vig, we get a second controlled killing. This would be great if Blaster Master is telling the truth and goes along with us.

If Blaster Master is mafia, he would theoretically only target townies. If we choose someone for him to kill, and that person is alive come morning, we can then lynch Blaster Master. In this scenario, the real vig would have to keep quiet and not kill who we tell Blaster Master to kill.

If Blaster Master is the SK, the Vig won’t kill him because he would be busy worrying if Blaster Master has the Doctor’s protection of not. The vig would have to wait for the doctor to die in order to strike. Meanwhile, Blaster Master enjoys the doctor’s protection and kills who we tell him.

Here is where things get tricky. If Blaster Master is the SK, and kills a Mafioso when we tell him, then the Vig would know that Blaster Master is the SK and he could then come out of the woodwork. Then we can lynch Blaster Master.

I can’t see Blaster Master winning if he is lying. If he is mafia or SK, he just postponed his execution. We can still lynch someone equally as suspect in the meantime.

Before I confuse NAF1138 even more by switching votes to Pleonast, I want to see what people think of this. Rysto, who would you vote for if Blaster Master agrees with this?

Blaster Master, would you go along with this?

I agree with your assessment, if I were the SK and were doing as the town requested, then I'm only an asset until the game gets late. And if you're really concerned, assuming there's a beat cop out there, they can investigate me twice, and out me if I come up as a combination that makes me likely to be mafia or SK, and then they get the protection of the doctor instead, and then the VIG can kill me when the town decides it's a good time, and get his confirmed townie status.

[Blaster Master]

Lakai:


There's another scenario. Given the 6-0 headstart the Mafia has in winnowing our numbers, they might be willing to sacrifice one of their members to keep us in the dark for a day or two longer. Which means that Blaster Master, if he is Mafia, might not have any qualms about killing a Mafia member at our behest over the night to establish his legitimacy...as long as it was a Mafia member whose death he felt wouldn't do too much damage in the long run.

So I propose that if we do go along with this, we choose only suspects with seemingly well-established networks---high-value suspects, as it were---for Blaster Master to kill.

I'm assuming Queuing is town, by the way, but I have to say that I could be wrong about that. I'm not wrong about me, however.

We made need a ruling on that. I'm under the impression that the mafia can't kill themselves. NAF, can you confirm or deny that?

Either way, I say let the beat cop investigate me, and only out himself IF I turn up other than I say I am, and then he gets the doc's protection, and the VIG kills me.
Let's assume for a moment mafia can kill mafia, then if I'm really mafia and the mafia decides to kill mafia to protect my claim, then after two investigations, I should show up as mafia, then the beat cop outs me, gets my protection instead and then let the VIG kill me. Thus, the idea of mafia killing mafia would only result in more mafia deaths.

If you're wrong about me, to what extent does that throw your personal worldview out of whack?

Well, I suppose I'd need to re-evaluate my suspicions, but it's not gonna make me change my political or religious affiliations. ;)

[Lakai]

I agree with your assessment, if I were the SK and were doing as the town requested, then I'm only an asset until the game gets late. And if you're really concerned, assuming there's a beat cop out there, they can investigate me twice, and out me if I come up as a combination that makes me likely to be mafia or SK, and then they get the protection of the doctor instead, and then the VIG can kill me when the town decides it's a good time, and get his confirmed townie status.
Is there anyway to really know if the beat cop will investigate you or not? You propose it as though the beat cop will listen to you.

It does not matter because at this point because I have very little to go on. All I can do now is wait for Wednesday noon to get more evidence. In the meantime, I reluctantly endorse Rysto’s idea because I can’t see how Blaster Master can get away with a fake role claim for too long.

Lakai:


There's another scenario. Given the 6-0 headstart the Mafia has in winnowing our numbers, they might be willing to sacrifice one of their members to keep us in the dark for a day or two longer. Which means that Blaster Master, if he is Mafia, might not have any qualms about killing a Mafia member at our behest over the night to establish his legitimacy...as long as it was a Mafia member whose death he felt wouldn't do too much damage in the long run.

So I propose that if we do go along with this, we choose only suspects with seemingly well-established networks---high-value suspects, as it were---for Blaster Master to kill.

I'm assuming Queuing is town, by the way, but I have to say that I could be wrong about that. I'm not wrong about me, however.

If he is mafia, and chooses to kill mafia, then better for us. Though it would not be in the interest of the mafia to do this since there will eventually come a time when they can't kill anymore of their own, Blaster Master then won't make the kill and they lose Blaster.

[Suburban Plankton]

Point 2: If you are the Vigilante and had called for the Vigilante to kill Queuing, why didn't you kill Queuing last night? Simple, how suspicious would it have looked if both Queuing and CaerieD had died last night? I almost certainly would have been pegged.Err, that argument only makes sense if you knew that someone else was going to target CaerieD.


I don't believe you, Blaster Master. You have obviously played this game before, and I think that you've figured out a way to save your neck by claiming a role in such a way that we can't possibly unravel the true story.


We have this possible strategy, courtesy of brewha:

We can give Blaster Master a target, and if the Miller blocks the Serial Killer, and if the Doctor protects Blaster, and if our target dies, then Blaster Master is the Vigilante.

But only if you weigh the same as a Duck.



Or this one, that you have given us yourself:

We don't lynch you, we convince the Doctor to not protect you. Then if you are killed that means that you were the Vigilante, and the Mafia and/or the Serial Killer wanted to get rid of you, but if you aren't killed that means that you are the Serial Killer...

No, if you are killed you're the Serial Killer, and if you aren't killed you're the Doctor...

No,...aw hell, I have no idea what the plan is supposed to be. And I don't think anyone else does either. And I think that's just the way you want it. In just a short amount of time, you've gone from having half the town wanting to lynch you, to having people making up convoluted strategies to keep you alive. You are certainly a master at playing this game, but I still think you're scum.



On preview, I see another one:

Either way, I say let the beat cop investigate me, and only out himself IF I turn up other than I say I am, and then he gets the doc's protection, and the VIG kills me.So now, we let you live for at least two more days so that the Beat Cop can investigate you (twice, just to make sure). Then he can out himself and hope that the Doctor decides to protect him every single night.

Which plan are we supposed to be following, anyway?

[Gadarene]

No,...aw hell, I have no idea what the plan is supposed to be. And I don't think anyone else does either. And I think that's just the way you want it. In just a short amount of time, you've gone from having half the town wanting to lynch you, to having people making up convoluted strategies to keep you alive. You are certainly a master at playing this game, but I still think you're scum.

I agree with you, Suburban Plankton, but the thing is that if Blaster Master isn't the Vigilante, somebody else is who can put the lie to his claim. Unless and until such time as there's a vigilante counter-claim or (worst case scenario) the real vigilante is targeted by either the SK or the Mafia, I say we can do worse than to provisionally believe Blaster Master and go after a different scum target...say, Pleonast or storyteller.

Or me, if you must, but I'm not scum and my lynching really won't accomplish anything.

[Autolycus]

Goodsnight moon.

And yes, I voted for Menocchio, buts only because he mades me angry. You wouldn't likes me when I'm angry. haha j/k

Vote Menocchio

[NAF1138]

We made need a ruling on that. I'm under the impression that the mafia can't kill themselves. NAF, can you confirm or deny that?



You know, this is the first time this question has come up. You would know they were mafia once they were killed, and then the game would start to unravel for them I suspect. I don't know if I would let them do it or not, but I can't think of a reason why they would want to...so I am not sure it matters.

[JSexton]

I didn't have time to do the analysis because of timestamps? Wow, crazy. I had been reading this thread from the beginning you know, taking notes, cutting and pasting peoples trust/mistrust list. It was quite easy to see who CaerieD had trusted and not trusted. As it was easy to see who she had voted for. Therefore I knew the potential crumbs she had left, I had them in a word doc. All I did was start on whatever page it was that it had been announced she had been killed, copy her name., ctrl-F, cut and paste what she had said. She has 18 posts in this thread. One was a goodbye, another (at least 1) was an "Oh, I am playing" post, so that leaves 16 at MOST. And I couldn't do that in 30 minutes. Well isn't the funny, because you know I did.

Thing is, you'd kinda have to be focusing on CaerieD already for this to be plausible that'd you'd have everything so handy. And again, if you were that focused on her specifically, I'd tend to believe that it's because you killed her.

Again the Chrisk Cop thing has come up. This I find really funny because Blaster Master and I were actually on the same side here. As I have said a few times before no I didn't really think Chrisk was a cop. However, when we have 34 people to choose from (maybe 37, whatever around that number), and someone makes a role claim, however silly it may be, what do we have to lose by believing them at that time? Not forever, not as confirmed, but as on ok, why not you crazy bastard? Claim. We will believe you...for now. Just keep the info coming. It stops so do you. Its wrong, your dead. And guess what? His silly claim actually was TRUE!

You seem like you still don't get it. ChrisK was suggesting that everyone make a similar post, as though, hypothetically, they were the cop. He then provided an example. It was not in an way a claim. Again: ChrisK did not claim cop.

As the "obvious" crumb...well we all know how I feel about that. I don't know where this information of me not believing Menocchio as Town came from. I just choose to believe all of the detective's information until someone PROVES, not THINKS, one piece is wrong. If someone can come and show my how this is a hurtful, illogical thing to do, then please come do. In fact I have been saying this for a while now, and NONE of you have been able to say it is. All you say is "its obvious that its Menecchio". I wish I had your abilities to KNOW what others think.
The whole game is predicated on trying to understand what others are thinking. How does it hurt the town? When you are pursuing a lynch based on information that is likely to be false i.e., that CaerieD had a guilty on Blaster. Granted, I believed Blaster to be scum. But that wasn't why.

[Blaster Master]

Err, that argument only makes sense if you knew that someone else was going to target CaerieD.


I don't believe you, Blaster Master. You have obviously played this game before, and I think that you've figured out a way to save your neck by claiming a role in such a way that we can't possibly unravel the true story.
Actually, I have never played this game before, but I have read about it before, and did enjoy reading the previous game. But I did give a good amount of thought into when and how I would out myself. I had hoped I could have avoided this for another day or two, but it was clear that the mafia wanted to shut me up and started this bandwagon; unfortunately for them, they made a very bad choice in who to attempt to steamroll.

Or this one, that you have given us yourself:

We don't lynch you, we convince the Doctor to not protect you. Then if you are killed that means that you were the Vigilante, and the Mafia and/or the Serial Killer wanted to get rid of you, but if you aren't killed that means that you are the Serial Killer...

No, if you are killed you're the Serial Killer, and if you aren't killed you're the Doctor...

No,...aw hell, I have no idea what the plan is supposed to be. And I don't think anyone else does either. And I think that's just the way you want it. In just a short amount of time, you've gone from having half the town wanting to lynch you, to having people making up convoluted strategies to keep you alive. You are certainly a master at playing this game, but I still think you're scum.



On preview, I see another one:

So now, we let you live for at least two more days so that the Beat Cop can investigate you (twice, just to make sure). Then he can out himself and hope that the Doctor decides to protect him every single night.

Which plan are we supposed to be following, anyway?
I've provided options, as have Rysto, and Lakai. I will leave it up to you all, and mostly the doctor, which plan you all think is best. Either way, here's the options as I see them:

1. Lynch Gadarene. I target Queuing, request the SK to kill Pleonast.
2. Lynch Queuing, I target Pleonast, request the sk to kill Gadarene.
3. Lynch Pleonast, I target Gadarene, request the SK to kill Queuing.
4. Lynch me, then all it's a moot point, and request the SK kill one of the other three and hope he hasn't switched allegiances with no mafia dead, and the VIG now gone as well.

Obviously, for options 1-3, we can swap my target with the SK target if the town is more suspicious of one than the other... No matter what, as long as we can get at least two of the three, I'm sure we'll gain a large amount of information.

[JSexton]

I'll give credit to JSexton, he was very close. I have been trying to make my role apparent for some time in hopes that the doctor could keep me alive at night to benefit the town. I had really hoped to not have to post this until at least the third or fourth day, but it looks like I don't have any choice but to role claim now.

Point 1: If I am the Vigilante, who have I killed thus far? On night 1, I killed Captain Carrot because, as I posted earlier, since the first kill is pretty much random, I wanted to ensure that the new players had their opportunity. [/quote[
This part I believe.
[quote]On night 2, I killed CaerieD, for the reasons I stated earlier... she looked very scummy to me; I was wrong, and I apologize to her and to the town. I had asked for more input from the town, but only one person obliged and I didn't agree with his/her suggestion for me to kill Autolycus.
I don't see any reason at all to see CAerieD as scummy...but that's a subjective opinion.

Point 2: If you are the Vigilante and had called for the Vigilante to kill Queuing, why didn't you kill Queuing last night? Simple, how suspicious would it have looked if both Queuing and CaerieD had died last night? I almost certainly would have been pegged.
Why would you believe that both would die if you targeted Queuing? To me, this sounds like an admission that you saw her cop breadcrumbs and guessed that the mafia would be killing her. That is not the action of the vig, and it is in direct contrast to your point #1.

Point 3: How can you prove you're the vigilante? Simple, don't lynch me today, and lynch either Gadarene or Queuing, either of which is almost certainly scum. I will target the opposite one. If the one I target tongiht comes up as scum, then you know for certain I'm not mafia.
This doesn't prove that your the SK, unless one of them shows as that. Simply killing mafia does not mean you're town.

Point 4: How can we be sure you're not the serial killer masquerading as the vigilanate? If I am actually the SK, then it's up to the real vigilante if he wants to kill me or not. However, I've made it very clear what I think the winning strategy is for both the SK and the VIG; and that is, to help the town.
According to the rules, if the town kills all the mafia but leaves the SK alive, the town loses. Period. We have to kill the SK, and sooner is better.
So, I do not believe you. But I'm willing to let the real vig deal with you.

Do whatever you want to tonight. I'm hopeful that it will be your last night. If you survive...well, we'll deal with the implications tomorrow. But I'd like to re-emphasize that you killing mafia does not mean that you are pro-town.

[NAF1138]

5- Blaster Master (hocow, Gadarene, Winston Smith, Augecheek, Lakai)
5- Pleonast - (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Queuing, Suburban Plankton)
5- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast, brewha)
4- Gadarene- (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach)
4- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio, glee)
1- hocow - (Malacandra)
1- Menocchio - (Autolycus)
1- Rysto - (sturmhauke)

[JSexton]

I'll give credit to JSexton, he was very close. I have been trying to make my role apparent for some time in hopes that the doctor could keep me alive at night to benefit the town. I had really hoped to not have to post this until at least the third or fourth day, but it looks like I don't have any choice but to role claim now.

Point 1: If I am the Vigilante, who have I killed thus far? On night 1, I killed Captain Carrot because, as I posted earlier, since the first kill is pretty much random, I wanted to ensure that the new players had their opportunity.
This part I believe.
On night 2, I killed CaerieD, for the reasons I stated earlier... she looked very scummy to me; I was wrong, and I apologize to her and to the town. I had asked for more input from the town, but only one person obliged and I didn't agree with his/her suggestion for me to kill Autolycus.
I don't see any reason at all to see CAerieD as scummy...but that's a subjective opinion.

Point 2: If you are the Vigilante and had called for the Vigilante to kill Queuing, why didn't you kill Queuing last night? Simple, how suspicious would it have looked if both Queuing and CaerieD had died last night? I almost certainly would have been pegged.
Why would you believe that both would die if you targeted Queuing? To me, this sounds like an admission that you saw her cop breadcrumbs and guessed that the mafia would be killing her. That is not the action of the vig, and it is in direct contrast to your point #1.

Point 3: How can you prove you're the vigilante? Simple, don't lynch me today, and lynch either Gadarene or Queuing, either of which is almost certainly scum. I will target the opposite one. If the one I target tongiht comes up as scum, then you know for certain I'm not mafia.
This doesn't prove that your the SK, unless one of them shows as that. Simply killing mafia does not mean you're town.

Point 4: How can we be sure you're not the serial killer masquerading as the vigilanate? If I am actually the SK, then it's up to the real vigilante if he wants to kill me or not. However, I've made it very clear what I think the winning strategy is for both the SK and the VIG; and that is, to help the town.
According to the rules, if the town kills all the mafia but leaves the SK alive, the town loses. Period. We have to kill the SK, and sooner is better.
So, I do not believe you. But I'm willing to let the real vig deal with you.

Do whatever you want to tonight. I'm hopeful that it will be your last night. If you survive...well, we'll deal with the implications tomorrow. But I'd like to re-emphasize that you killing mafia does not mean that you are pro-town.

[JSexton]

All right, here's my proposal. Whether or not Blaster_Master is the Vig or the SK, we can make use of him. Here's what we do: every Day, we vote to lynch somebody else, and also vote on a target for Blaster_Master. If Blaster_Master's target ever survives, we lynch him. That way, whether Blaster_Master is the Vig or the SK, we get the benefits of his kills? Any thoughts?
Trouble is, if he's the SK, we need to kill him eventually in order to win. It's a very risky proposition, although there is a metric ton of time left in the game.

[Fern Forest]

Should the Doc protect Blaster Master tonight? Or will the Mafia be gunning for a certain player who just subbed in? The way JSexton waded into this thread has to have scared the Mafia if he fingered more then a few mobsters correctly.

Perhaps it's best to not make any definitive choice for the Doc to force the Mob to have to guess and hope their kill goes through.

[JSexton]

I've had a second idea, but I'm not as sure about this one. I'm just going to throw this one out for discussion; I'm not endorsing the idea yet but I'd like everybody's thoughts. Don't lynch Blaster Master unless someone counter-claims Vig. If no one claims, Blaster Master gets the Doc's protection tonight. Basically, we want to make it so that the only way Blaster Master can get killed in during the Day, and we only do that if the Vig is willing to out himself. The nice thing about this is that we use the SK to implicitly confirm Blaster Master's claim -- he can't get rid of the Vig without outing himself, and then he'll lose.

Some issues:
- is it reasonable to trade the Vig for the SK?
- guaranteeing the Doc's protection gives the Mafia a free hand to kill whomever they like tonight
- a Mafioso could make a false claim and kill off our Vig. Is it reasonable to trade the Vig for a Mafioso? In our position, I'm not sure that it is; on the other hand, if Blaster Master is the Vig we're likely to lose him anyway
This is a fairly workable plan, with a couple problems. If the vig is reluctant to claim, it all falls apart. I can think of a few players who probably wouldn't claim under these circumstances, if they were the vig. The problem of directing the doc is also a concern. There's one other problem, but saying it out loud would be stupid.

I do think trading the vig for any scum, mafia or SK, is worth it. 1:1 trades are generally in the town's favor, even a power role like cop or doc. And a vig can often be more a liability than a plus. I don't like a gun being in anyone's hands other than a public, accountable town.

[Fern Forest]

Is anyone else seeing post 1150 as a blank post by JSexton?

[Blaster Master]

JSexton, your last post appears blank to me...?

[Gadarene]

unvote Blaster Master

vote Pleonast

For now.

[JSexton]

Is anyone else seeing post 1150 as a blank post by JSexton?
Yeah, I screwed up a quote tag, and I can't edit it. The next post is the corrected one.

[Fern Forest]

If you quote it you can read what was written. It is the same as the following post.

[JSexton]

Well, I'll post the one element of my thinking that still stands, even now. It's really tempting to assume that the Mafia is going to make our work really easy by voting in neat, clean, well-organized blocs, such that as soon as we identify one, we will have an easy time catching the rest. The problem with Gadarene's "network" theory is that it falls apart completely if the Mafia collectively have half a brain. I think we should be looking for patterns outside of the really obvious "X voted with Y, ergo X is aligned with Y" - unfortunately, with the amount of noise and signal we're getting in this thread, I'm not sure how easy that's going to be.

Strongly agree. We have to assume that the mafia is smart enough to not all wagon together. There will certainly be some links discernable from posts and votes, but I doubt they're stupid enough to simply vote en masse. Finally, non-mason townies don't know who is on their side, so voting patterns for them are by definition meaningless. They reflect only that person's personal beliefs.

[JSexton]

As for Jsexton's suspicion of me - I don't know how I should defend my position without being defensive. I was unable to check this thread for almost 2 days, and when I did, I found two votes against me. I was just trying to explain my situation, I was not trying to be defensive (though now, despite my best efforts, I probably sound defensive).

But why would you be so worried about two votes that you'd spontaneously claim? Two votes don't really mean anything. They're not even a wagon.

[Aguecheek]

Christ on a cracker.

unvote BlasterMaster

I'll try to read the rest over again tomorrow...

[Blaster Master]

I don't see any reason at all to see CAerieD as scummy...but that's a subjective opinion.
I admit, it was a bad read on my part. I asked for guidance on who the VIG should be killing and got precisely ONE response, so all I had to go on was my gut distrust. She said things that look very fishy to me. I addressed this earlier, I think, but I'm willing to go sifting through her posts again and point out specifically what looked scummy to me if it will help you.
Why would you believe that both would die if you targeted Queuing? To me, this sounds like an admission that you saw her cop breadcrumbs and guessed that the mafia would be killing her. That is not the action of the vig, and it is in direct contrast to your point #1.
My concern was, if the deaths laid out exactly as I had publicly posted, I thought it would have laid too much suspicion on me, and I would have been pegged as the VIG or SK right at the beginning of day two, and we'd be having this discussion 3 days ago, except with chrisk instead of you.
This doesn't prove that your the SK, unless one of them shows as that. Simply killing mafia does not mean you're town.
No, but killing mafia (based on my understanding they can't, or at least wouldn't kill themselves) would prove that I'm either the SK or the VIG. I really can't see how mafia killing themselves makes sense. If I were mafia, they'd have to keep doing the dirty work of the town to keep me alive and trusted, which means, they're basically handing the game over to the town to lose, meanwhile the real VIG and SK do whatever they do, which at that point, would almost certainly be anti-mafia.
According to the rules, if the town kills all the mafia but leaves the SK alive, the town loses. Period. We have to kill the SK, and sooner is better.
So, I do not believe you. But I'm willing to let the real vig deal with you.
Simple solution, I'll kill whoever the town wants, and if after a period of time we figure we're down to just a couple mafia (say we've killed about 5 or 6). You can stop protecting me, and either let the SK or mafia take me, or lynch me.
Do whatever you want to tonight. I'm hopeful that it will be your last night. If you survive...well, we'll deal with the implications tomorrow. But I'd like to re-emphasize that you killing mafia does not mean that you are pro-town.
As stated above, I agree, it doesn't... but it DOES mean, I'm not mafia. An SK forced to work for the town, especially with a concession like above where you can easily decide he's no longer useful, is also a losing proposition for the SK.

[NAF1138]

I thought that the SK wins by surviving but wins along with which ever other side survives. In other words he's a floater between the sides.


On preview JSexton already got this one, but so it's official like:

THE TOWN/MAFIA WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO KILL THE SK TO WIN. THERE IS ONLY ONE GAME WINNER. IF THE SK SURVIVES TO THE END OF THE GAME THE SK IS THE WINNER. THE ONLY WINNER. EVERYONE ELSE LOSES.


In all caps so everyone will see it and I don't have to keep posting this same info over and over again.

Pleonast and Queuing at 6 votes now. BM down to 3.

[nesta]

Well, that's a twist. I didn't expect Blaster Master to claim Vig or SK because I thought both of those roles would play it a little more low-key.

It's been a long day and I need to get to bed soon, but I'm trying to come to some sort of resolution so I don't dream about this damn game all night. I figured I might as well hash it out in a post so my thoughts can help, or someone can point out something I've missed.

Here are the possibilities I see if we try Rysto's test from post 1086 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8422436&postcount=1086):

1) Blaster Master is the Vig: We pick a target for him and see if they end up dead. If they do, we can suspect that he's the Vig, or SK, or Mafia, since all three of them can kill who they choose. Of course, the Mafia or the SK could kill the designated target to confirm Blaster Master's role for him even if he isn't a power role, but the only way they know for sure he's not is if he is Mafia, and I think it benefits the Mafia to know as much, if not more so, than the rest of us if that's the case. I don't think either of them would kill our target, thereby not confirming his role to themselves, and wasting a kill to boot if he is the SK or Vig.

If he is the Vig or SK and our lynch or target is scum, then I think the Mafia will take out Blaster Master tonight. If our targets aren't scum I think the Mafia will leave him alone tomorrow hoping we'll take out Blaster Master for them, since we can't be sure he isn't Mafia playing us all. That is, unless the Doctor protects him. More on this in a bit.

2) Blaster Master is the SK: It plays out exactly like if he was the Vig, except our Vig now knows who the SK is. And the SK is now under our control. As long as we proceed with the understanding that if Blaster Master fails to make his kill he's as good as dead he's doing our bidding and we've effectively hobbled the SK. The real Vig is our shield from the SK coasting to endgame. Instead of claiming he can just kill Blaster Master if it's getting close. That would be towards the end of the game where the Vig might be more valuable as a confirmed town than as an extra kill. This puts the Vig at risk of getting killed by other means, but if that happens then we're on to Blaster Master and can take him out ourselves.

Of course, if he ends up dead from a Mafia kill for outing scum and is the SK, then that helps us out quite a bit.

3) Blaster Master is Mafia: This is the worst case. If he's Mafia he may be counting on getting two kills in exchange for his outing. We do gain more information by being able to parse his posts and look at those who voted with him, but I'm not sure that offsets losing two valuable townies. If he's Mafia I'm pretty sure Queuing and Gadarene aren't, because his plan is to take both of them out. The Mafia may decide to kill the designated target to give Blaster Master a chance at a defense, or they may figure his case is lost and kill someone else, and set up a bandwagon with other Mafia members to try to shield themselves. If neither of the kills is Mafia and Blaster Master somehow manages to talk his way out of a lynching the Mafia could play along and continue to kill whoever we tell them to until we hit a scum. If Blaster Master fails to make the kill we'll probably be onto two scum, Blaster Master himself and whoever we told him to kill. Of course, they could use this against us and get another free lynching out of Blaster Master's death. I really don't like having the Mafia happily playing along as we have them killing townie after townie at night.

4) Blaster Master is a civilian, or another pro-town power role: OK, maybe this is the worst case. If he's not the Vig and he's pro-town, he's really hurting us with the false claim, and I think would deserve a lynching for it. The only good justification I can think of is if he's a cop and has a bead on Queuing or Gadarene, but even then, why not claim cop instead? If he's a vanilla townie and is just sure he's right about them, he should have claimed that and given the best defense he could. His death would exonerate him, and we could then get down to business. If he's only doing this so he can stay in the game one more day, shame on him, because that isn't in the town's best interest.

I don't think number 4 is likely, though. If he's pro-town he's been posting a lot of analysis to help the town, and doing something that would hurt us in the end wouldn't seem likely.

[nesta]

[Wow, this is my first post to the SDMB that has been too long to fit. At least I think that’s why it wouldn’t post. It actually said it was too short. I broke it up and now it will.]

I'm torn on what I think is the best course of action. There are a lot of situations outlined above that are very negative for the town. Whether the risks are worth the possible reward depends a little on whether we currently think Blaster Master is pro or anti town.

I've been leaning towards him being pro-town, but I'm far from sure. I propose this:

Tonight we follow through with Rysto's test. We have the Doctor protect Blaster Master. If he fails to kill, we lynch him. If he does kill, and one or both of our targets are scum, we have the Doctor protect him a second night. If he fails to make a kill any night we lynch him. After that the Doctor flips a coin every night to decide if we protect him. If he's the SK the real Vig votes for him every night (after the second night) and should eventually get a kill, giving us a trusted townie and a dead SK. If the Mafia wastes kills going after him hoping to win the coin flip then that gives us more time to hunt them down. Now, if neither target tonight is scum I think we should lynch Blaster Master tomorrow on the good chance he's Mafia. We lose two townies if that's the case, but at least we would have a starting point for Mafia hunting.

It's much later than I'd hoped to wrap this up, so please forgive me if I've missed something or if this is a bad idea. I'd be happy for any corrections that give us a better chance.

[nesta]

In the time it took me to work my way through the logic for my post there's been another page and a half of new posts. I haven't read them yet. I just wanted to let everyone know that if a better idea than mine has come up that I wasn't proposing mine as better, I just hadn't read it yet.

[Blaster Master]

On another note, it occured to me that my night attack may be against the GF (though I'm not inclined to believe any of those three are, but just to cover all the bases). Thus, another scenario is that my attack fails, but it could look like I was a mafia who claimed VIG then simply didn't follow through. If that's the case, I think trading the VIG for the GF is a perfectly fair trade, and I'd have no qualms if I were lynched in less than an hour tomorrow.

OTOH, I'm under the impression that the miller can block the GF's immunity to my night attacks, if that's the case (NAF, can we get a ruling on that?), then if there is a miller, maybe they should also block my night target until the GF turns up?

[NAF1138]

OTOH, I'm under the impression that the miller can block the GF's immunity to my night attacks, if that's the case (NAF, can we get a ruling on that?), then if there is a miller, maybe they should also block my night target until the GF turns up?


I couldn't have that happen without letting the miller know that he had found the GF and asking if he would rather block the night immunity or try for a shot at stopping a mafia kill. Frankly I think this is too much info for the Miller to have. So no, the Miller acts on the GF the same way they would on all other Mafia, the GF is immune.

[Blaster Master]

I'm fine with that. I'm certain enough that at least one of the pair between Gadarene and Queuing is scum, that I'll bet my life on it. If both of them turn up townies, lynch me tomorrow. However, if you all prefer I go after Pleonast, I'll do that... I'm just not nearly certain enough of his guilt to bet my life on it. Of course, the SK can do us all a big favor and target the one I don't, and then we REALLY open this game up.

Also, it looks like the lynch votes are going to Pleonast and Queuing. If that's still the case tomorrow, I'll switch my lynch vote to one of them (probably Queuing, unless Pleonast posts a startlingly unspectacular defense).

[Fern Forest]

I think you may be doomed Blaster Master. Make your kill tonight count because I think there's a very good chance you wont make it to the morning.

So NAF1138, question #200. If the VG dies before the SK but the town wins can the VG still claim victory?


P.S. You should have killed Autolycus like I said. Good ol' hindsight. Ha-ha, what a game.

[NAF1138]

So NAF1138, question #200. If the VG dies before the SK but the town wins can the VG still claim victory?


Yes, the Vig wins or loses with the town.

[NAF1138]

ok final vote count and then I am going to bed.

6- Pleonast (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Queuing, Suburban Plankton, Gadarene)
5- Queuing - (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast, brewha)
4- Gadarene - (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach)
3- Blaster Master - (hocow, Winston Smith, Lakai)
4- Pygmy Rugger (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio,glee)
1- hocow = (Malacandra)
1- Menocchio (Autolycus)
1- Rysto (sturmhauke)


My time is going to get just a tad limited starting tomorrow and lasting 'till about Friday (I have family comming into town), but I will do my best to stay on top of things. I will at the very least give you a vote count twice a day. I suspect that tomorrow (real time) will be just as long as today was and that this day will go down to the wire, but I hope I have answered all of the major questions you had for now.

[sturmhauke]

Goddamn this thread is getting out of hand. It's only been a few realtime days and it's already nearly as long as the last thread. Some people have said I haven't been posting as much this time, which is true. One, I read slow, and two, I have a job now whereas last time I was unemployed for most of the game. I don't like to post without reading everything, and there is quite a lot to read.

I'm in favor of assuming Blaster Master is the Vig for the time being. In any case, he's likely to get killed tonight one way or another.

Gadarene has been pinging my scumdar for several pages now. His scum list corresponds fairly well with my not-scum list, and his arguments consists mainly of a lot of smoke and mirrors, especially the bizzaro volunteering that someone kill him tonight. I don't see how his getting murdered at night proves anything about anyone he's suspicious of.

unvote Rysto, vote Gadarene.

[glee]

I'm out most of today :smack: , so I'd better do something now.

I'm finding this game way more complicated than the first (obviously there are more players, plus the SK and the Vig).

I echo JSexton's comment that "Finally, non-mason townies don't know who is on their side, so voting patterns for them are by definition meaningless. They reflect only that person's personal beliefs."

At present my current vote seems wasted, so I'll follow Zuma (who I trust) and:

unvote pygmyrugger
lynch Queuing

[kivvik]

Well damn, a VIG claim. I am willing to go with the let him live for now, give him a target and see what happens option. My vote is currently on one of the top three, so I shall leave it there for now, barring some strange thing popping up. The next couple of days will be interesting, that's for sure. (Although I almost dread the influx of posts that are gonna be hitting after this game-day ends. Weekend's over, and half the time I come home from work it's bed-time by the time I finish reading =P )

[Malacandra]

After mature consideration of the three pages by which this thread has lengthened since I was last able to look at it:

unvote hocow
vote Gadarene

[zuma]

JSexton, I strongly disagree with your point about getting rid of the vig (or, by extension, SK) at this point. The town is down 6, and mafia is down 0. Things are going to be a lot clearer tomorrow, and keeping the vig alive, even though the serial killer needs to eventually die, seems important.

You're obviously an experienced player, and you're an experienced player taking on the role of someone who advocated a fishing for cops scenario, yet who denounced that idea in the original werewolf observation thread. You're also taking on the role of someone who said last (game) night that they were against the cooling off period, and defended it by saying that they didn't want to make waves after screwing up the cop-fishing plan. You don't make waves by going against what was then a unanimous vote in favor of it.

I think there is a very good chance you are scum, and if so, you are a very dangerous person to leave in this game.

I'm back and forth on whether chrisk was just completely inexperienced or not, but it is important for the town to not forget his actions, nor the fact that we have a veteran player now taking over his role. I'm going to focus on the people currently under suspicion, but I'm not going to let you off the hook by any means.

I'll be taking a good, hard look at you (game) tomorrow.

[zuma]

Trouble is, if he's the SK, we need to kill him eventually in order to win. It's a very risky proposition, although there is a metric ton of time left in the game.

Yes, there is a metric ton of time. I think the SK will eventually be taken out by accident or suspiscion. We can string up Blaster Master any time we wish, once we have identified and taken out a few mafioso. Even if BM is the SK, he better damn well do what we want him to do in the meantime. So let's stick with the metric ton of time idea for now. I have a feeling a few mafioso will become obvious in the next day or two, and I'd rather have two kills a night instead of just one.

[zuma]

Also, I support Rysto's plan of the doc protecting Blaster Master. Blaster Master's claim is easily tested. If the town-decided target doesn't turn up dead, BM has some splaining to do. If BM is the SK, well, he's as good as a vig in that he becomes a tool of the town.

And frankly, with the cop dead, who the hell else is left to protect?

I'm sure we'll probably string up MB sooner or later anyway if the SK doesn't turn up dead, or out themselves.

[zuma]

Rules Recap - for ease as the game is starting on this page

Godfather- The head mafia member. In case of a tie in the night kill vote the Godfather decides. Godfather shows up as a regular townie if investigated, will survive being targeted for night kill by the Vigilante.


Also, (I think someone at some point brought this up earlier), the vig is very valuable in that he becomes a de-facto Godfather-detector. If Blaster Master fails to kill his target, and we string him up for it, and it turns out he is the vig, we have now found the godfather.

[zuma]

And I support Blaster Master's idea that we string up either Gadarene or Queuing, and he offs the other one (or Pleonast or whoever the town agrees on). The important thing is that it should probably be one of the leading vote candidates and BM must tell us beforehand who he is targetting. This will test his role-claim.

With a Wednesday noon PST deadline, we should probably put someone on ten votes by Tuesday around lunchtime or earlier, and Master Blaster should give us his target soon thereafter. This ensures everyone has a chance to defend themselves and still gives us a day to work out that information.

[zuma]

Also, (I think someone at some point brought this up earlier), the vig is very valuable in that he becomes a de-facto Godfather-detector. If Blaster Master fails to kill his target, and we string him up for it, and it turns out he is the vig, we have now found the godfather.

And of course it goes without saying that if Blaster Master fails to kill his target tonight, and we string him up, if he's not the vig we've caught mafia. And if we have millers they should not block Blaster Master. We'll have a lot more information about Blaster Master and others by seeing whether or not he makes his kill.

[Winston Smith]

OK. I've gone back to page 2 and actually read about the vig role, and although I recognize the possibility that Blaster Master is actually falsely claiming the role, Queuing in this post particularly makes me suspicious. I mean, Queuing's really going out of his way to cast doubt on even the most mundane of B M's posts.

Ok, here are what the other people have said about Blaster Master.

Here is a post 626 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414619&postcount=626) where he plays semantics with words.

Here is a post 766 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8416644&postcount=766) from Rysto, also outlining some of the things he has done.

Here is post 771 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8416681&postcount=771) and post 779 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8416851&postcount=779) from Kat, accusing him of lieing.

Here is another post 713 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415796&postcount=713) from Kat, about BM's lieing.

Here is Aguecheek in post 731 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8416181&postcount=731) talking about how he pointed out CaerieD to be killed. Which we all know she was.

Kat again, post 670 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415262&postcount=670) about his fake list of mistrusts.

More from Kat, in post 630 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414652&postcount=630) again all about his odd lists.

Look, this time its Rysto in post 650 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415079&postcount=650)


I am wondering, what part of CaerieD's suspicion is reactionary? Up until that point most people (I think and Blaster Master agrees) trusted Blaster Master for his posts, his math work and generally supported him. Yet CaerieD put him on the distrust list, along with Autocylus, who at that time was being bandwagonned.

I agree that acting on the CaerieD information alone may be somewhat thin. I have explained my other reasons for voting to lynch Blaster Master.

Hell she could have investigated Menocchio found him to be town, and just placed people she thought seemed to already have town support behind them (Blaster Master) and people who were being bandwaggoned (Autocylus) on her list to try to hide her power role.

However a person who was that tricky with their mistrust list would have been smart enough to put more then 1 person on her trusted list, don't you think?

The harping about the "lie", all the weird nitpicking about the friggin' breadcrums, etcetera, etcetera ad nauseum.

I'm really disappointed the whole lynch Blaster Master movement fell apart. I was quite looking forward to it. Especially after his eleventh-hour attempt to implicate me.

I'll give credit to JSexton, he was very close. I have been trying to make my role apparent for some time in hopes that the doctor could keep me alive at night to benefit the town. I had really hoped to not have to post this until at least the third or fourth day, but it looks like I don't have any choice but to role claim now.

Point 1: If I am the Vigilante, who have I killed thus far? On night 1, I killed Captain Carrot because, as I posted earlier, since the first kill is pretty much random, I wanted to ensure that the new players had their opportunity. On night 2, I killed CaerieD, for the reasons I stated earlier... she looked very scummy to me; I was wrong, and I apologize to her and to the town. I had asked for more input from the town, but only one person obliged and I didn't agree with his/her suggestion for me to kill Autolycus.

Point 2: If you are the Vigilante and had called for the Vigilante to kill Queuing, why didn't you kill Queuing last night? Simple, how suspicious would it have looked if both Queuing and CaerieD had died last night? I almost certainly would have been pegged.

Point 3: How can you prove you're the vigilante? Simple, don't lynch me today, and lynch either Gadarene or Queuing, either of which is almost certainly scum. I will target the opposite one. If the one I target tongiht comes up as scum, then you know for certain I'm not mafia.

Point 4: How can we be sure you're not the serial killer masquerading as the vigilanate? If I am actually the SK, then it's up to the real vigilante if he wants to kill me or not. However, I've made it very clear what I think the winning strategy is for both the SK and the VIG; and that is, to help the town.

Point 5: Let's say we believe you are the vigilante, what happens tonight?

This is a complicated one, so let me play out the options as I see them:

As I stated earlier, I am more than willing to kill whichever between Gadarene and Queuing is not lynched today; and if neither is lynched, I'll kill Gadarene. Since I'm not mafia, I believe if either of them (and certainly the one I kill tonight) will prove conclusively that I'm going pro-town.

Will the SK kill me? I can't imagine he will, because IMO his best option is to help the town AND have a shorter game; both of which I will help with. On top of that, I've made it clear I have no intention of hunting him down at this time. Further, if he gets revealed or put on the chopping block, he can always attempt to use me as a scape goat to try to prevent from getting lynched for at least another day.

Will the mafia kill me? Probably. However, they may not attack me if the one I'll target tonight is actually not mafia, in which case they will let me live to get lynched quickly tomorrow OR if they think the doctor or one of the GAs will protect me tonight.


Bottom line, you can lynch me now, and find out the hard way that the bandwagon on me was by the mafia OR you can let me live, get at least one more kill in tonight, and either let the mafia do your dirty work or lynch me tomorrow if by some miracle a miller blocks me, or the doctor sillily decides to protect Gadarene or Queuing.

If you do decide to lynch me, or let me live and I die tonight, here's the ones at whom I'd point the FoS in order of my certainty they're mafia and/or SK:

Gadarene
Queuing
Winston Smith
Aguecheek
Brewha
ArizonaTeach
Pleonast
hocow
Pygmy Rugger

To you all, especially the top four or five. If I'm lynched, I can almost guarantee most of you will follow.


Now, look here: this could be a copy and paste from the Mafia night board conversation between Queuing and Blaster Master, like he's rehearsing the possible arguments he might encounter in the main thread.

Why? You lied. You may have defended your lie, but big deal. You lied in the first place. I don't care what reason you have for your lie. This is a game of trust, and you lied. Why would I believe you now?



To give the appearance of being pro-town? It was math, that was it. While it may be useful it really isn't that useful. So the beat cops aren't 100%. I know that. I also know they have a 50/50 chance if they accuse someone. This is much better then my 1 in 31 chance. Therefore if I know someone is a beat cop, and they say X is scum, well I am a going to damn well vote with them. Just like if I knew who the masons were I would vote with them, as they have better odds then I do.


In fact I would like someone to point out this "great" analysis that you have done. All you have done is math, and defended yourself. You have basically defended yourself by saying "Hey I am town, look at all my great analysis (Math), and how hard Queuing is going after me. He is scum. I am town. I post a lot. My analysis is great. Of course one of the few statements our Detective made mentioned me, but come on! She also said she trusted someone else. That is for sure the crumb. Don't be dumd. I am town. My analysis (math) is great"

The only "great" analysis I have seen is by Rysto. All you have done is Math, all Zuma has done is accuse me over and over again for the same reason. All I have done is believe everything the one trusted person with information has said.

This is why I am voting on what CaerieD said. Guess what? She has better odds then I do. She KNEW something. I don't know what that was. Either do you!

Yes, it may have been Menecchio. Why that is more likely to be the crumb then you or Autocylus, I don't understand. Well I do understand. I get why you, and others, think it was Menecchio. However you all act like you KNOW. You don't know. Unless you are scum. Your odds go down, down a lot. You know who *maybe* 10 other people are.



Well I am not Mafia. I have no idea what Gadarene is. I thought he was Mafia on the first day. Check my mistrust list. He was on it.

Honestly I don't see either one of us playing for much longer.

Say I am successful, and you are scum and lynched today. I die tonight most likely.

Say I am successful, and you are lynched but you are town. In this scenario I make it through the night (probably again), and I am lynched (probably rather quickly) by the town. They will find out I am town then, but to late for me.

Say you are succesful, and get me lynched today. They find out I am town, you make it through the night, and they lynch you tomorrow.

Either way, I think we both die soon :).



I love how you never consider the other side, how you dismiss it, how confident you are that you are correct. True, all 3 of you could be town. I don't think so, but hey I could be wrong. Your arrogance astounds me. You don't even consider the idea that CaerieD could have left a different crumb

I am wondering have you got these psychic abilities of yours tested? I mean its amazing that you absolutely, without a doubt, 100% KNOW what CaerieD did.

He's got it all worked out. I mean: yeah, he's gonna swing, but he's gonna take a couple of us with him, too. That's all the Mafia needs to do, folks. Keep us on the run, keep us confused, make a role claim here and there as appropriate and it's right into the winner's circle for the scummy lot of them.

I'm throwing my lot in with the lynch Queuing contingent at this point for two reasons. Firstly, the Blaster Master bandwagon's wheels fell off, and secondly, Queuing was next on my list.

jsexton's analysis here is excellent (and timely - thank you jsexton). Our lists are virtually identical. And I'd like to point out that in this following post B M is outed as the SK. I think that's still a distinct possibility, though I am just one man with one vote and the will of the town is to let laster Master live at least one more day and see how this drama-within-a-drama plays out. But also of note, and supporting Blaster Master's Vig claim is that his list of suspicious characters pretty closely resembles jsexton's. Of course, at the end of the day we'll know a lot more than we know now.

Whew. Lots to digest. Fortunately, there’s some fairly transparent people in this town. Here’s my list, starting from the scum to the town:

Blaster Master. Serial Killer. He’s posting some neat analysis, because he wants to be perceived as useful. It’s also in his interest to catch scum. Trouble is, he got a little over eager and lied, and also made it clear that he’s got a killing role (317). That leaves one role, SK. I think he’s the best lynch today, in order to cut down on the number of deaths each night.

Pleonast: Scum. This surprises no one, of course. His bandwagonning makes his role pretty clear. Posts 391 and 461 are especially telling.

Queueing: Scum. His fishing for experienced players (268) and his misrepresentation of chrisk’s hypothetical cop claiming were pretty scummy. The best, though was post 581. A great big link-filled post analyzing CaerieD’s posts for breadcrumbs. Two problems: One: he got the conclusion wrong; Menocchio was clearly the crumb. Two, check the timestamps. That post was made thirty minutes after the dayscene went up. No way he read it, did that research, and came to his conclusion in that time. Not bloody likely. No, he and the rest of the mafia figured she was the cop, and planned this gambit. He may have even had that post ready to go.

glee: Scum, probably. Posts 267, 363 raise my hackles, so to speak. And I love post 884. What, scared of me? You want to lynch me before I get a chance to talk? How very townie of you.

Aguecheek: Scum, I think. Posts 393 stood out. Also, he’s been going after some perceived “easy” mislynches, like sturmhawke and Autolycus.

Gadarene: Potentially scum.I don’t like the attack on StarvingBut Strong in post 456. Unforced vanilla claim. OTOH, I agree with several of your targets, and post 822 is fairly townie.

Brewha: leaning scum. I don’t like his unforced claim in post 719. Bit too defensive.

-----------------------

Winston Smith: Ugh. I want to call you scummy, but I also know that you’re, er, unconventional when it comes to this game. I don’t know what to think of you yet.

ArizonaTeach, Flying Cow, Fretful, hocow, malacandra, pimaspinner, pygmy runner, smitty, starvingbutstrong, Suburban Plankton: Neutral on all of you. Nothing you’ve posted makes me put you in either category yet, although there are certain links to other people for some of you. We’ll know more after more confirmed roles.

---------------------------

Fern Forest, Kat, Kivvik, Lakai, MadTheSwine, nesta, MonkeyMensch, : Leaning town for minor reasons.

sturmhawke: Leans town for minor reasons, and I greatly dislike the bandwagon on him. He may well be getting set up.

Autolycus: Here’s a controversial one. I firmly believe Auto is town.

Rysto: Seems quite town, based on analysis.

zuma/ Strongly believe zuma to be town. Her (?) analysis is very strong, and displays some very subtle townie tells. If she’s scum, my hat’s off.

Menocchio: I believe he’s confirmed by CaerieD. Potentially the Godfather, of course.

---------------------------

I think that covers everyone.

I don’t want the day over just yet, but my vote will be on Blaster. I’d like a claim out of him. I’d also be fine with lynching any of the top five people up there, but I think Blaster is the most pressing.

And here's a parting thought: jsexton could be Mafia, and this whole thing an elaborate plot. Clever, yes? I don't really think that's the case here, but who knows. Normally I wouldn't expect something quite so elaborate, in-depth, and utterly villainous. But this is the SDMB.


Unvote Blaster Master

Vote Queuing

[Malacandra]

I'm sure we'll probably string up MB sooner or later anyway if the SK doesn't turn up dead, or out themselves.

"Good work, Master Blaster. I'll probably kill you in the morning".

All of the above looks sound. Now all we have to do is identify some scum for MB to deal with, and hope the Millers don't accidentally role-block the Doctor, and... OK, we've got a lot to wish for before we're out of the wood, but it's a start.

[Malacandra]

"Good work, Master Blaster.

Who he? :smack:

[Gadarene]

For those of you who are voting to lynch me: is it because you genuinely think I'm scum, or because you think it will yield useful information?

[zuma]

I think (correct me if I'm wrong), Pleonast, Gadarene, and Queuing are the three big vote-getters at this point. Once one of them reaches ten votes, Blaster Master needs go give us his choice for his kill. Then we have a day to review any defenses from them.

[storyteller0910]

Before things start getting crazy in here this morning, is this:

7- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast, brewha, glee, Winston Smith)
6- Pleonast (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Queuing, Suburban Plankton, Gadarene)
6- Gadarene (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach, sturmhauke, Malacandra)
3- Blaster Master (hocow, Lakai)
3- Pygmy Rugger (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio)
1- Menocchio (Autolycus)

an accurate vote count as of this minute?

[zuma]

For those of you who are voting to lynch me: is it because you genuinely think I'm scum, or because you think it will yield useful information?

yes and yes.

Someone is getting lynched tonight, someone is getting killed by mafia, and someone may or may not be killed by Blaster Master. There is a boatload of useful information which will turn up.

If you and/or Queuing turn up town, I'm going to be immediately suspicious, along with everyone else who went along this scheme. If Pleonast turns up town, everyone on his bandwagon is going to look suspiscious.

Lines have been drawn, and we will know lots of information tomorrow.

[storyteller0910]

Before things start getting crazy in here this morning, is this:

7- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast, brewha, glee, Winston Smith)
6- Pleonast (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Queuing, Suburban Plankton, Gadarene)
6- Gadarene (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach, sturmhauke, Malacandra)
3- Blaster Master (hocow, Lakai)
3- Pygmy Rugger (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio)
1- Menocchio (Autolycus)

an accurate vote count as of this minute?

Obviously it's not, because evidently I can't count to three. Revised:

7- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast, brewha, glee, Winston Smith)
6- Pleonast (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Queuing, Suburban Plankton, Gadarene)
6- Gadarene (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach, sturmhauke, Malacandra)
3- Pygmy Rugger (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio)
2- Blaster Master (hocow, Lakai)
1- Menocchio (Autolycus)

[Gadarene]

If you and/or Queuing turn up town, I'm going to be immediately suspicious, along with everyone else who went along this scheme. If Pleonast turns up town, everyone on his bandwagon is going to look suspiscious.

Good. Because your aggressiveness in our exchanges has really rubbed me the wrong way, and it's going to be great fun to either (1) make you look like an utter idiot or (2) out you as scum when I get lynched and come up vanilla townie...as I've been saying all along that I am. :)

[Queuing]

Thing is, you'd kinda have to be focusing on CaerieD already for this to be plausible that'd you'd have everything so handy. And again, if you were that focused on her specifically, I'd tend to believe that it's because you killed her.


This is patently untrue. How hard do you think it is to look up info? Honestly, its not. Have you ever used ctrl-f? Do it, and tell me how long it takes you. If it takes you more the 15 minutes, well I don't know, because it won't.

You seem like you still don't get it. ChrisK was suggesting that everyone make a similar post, as though, hypothetically, they were the cop. He then provided an example. It was not in an way a claim. Again: ChrisK did not claim cop.

You seem like you are bad at reading. I have never said I believe Chrisk to be a cop. You just disagree with me, fine. Then put your money where you mouth is, kill me and find out just how wrong you are.

The whole game is predicated on trying to understand what others are thinking. How does it hurt the town? When you are pursuing a lynch based on information that is likely to be false i.e., that CaerieD had a guilty on Blaster. Granted, I believed Blaster to be scum. But that wasn't why.

Thanks for explaining the game to me. Again, can you explain why we would believe one thing from CaerieD and not another. How what you say must be true? You can't. You just think it. You don't know it. You can't know it. Not unless you are scum.

[zuma]

Good. Because your aggressiveness in our exchanges has really rubbed me the wrong way, and it's going to be great fun to either (1) make you look like an utter idiot or (2) out you as scum when I get lynched and come up vanilla townie...as I've been saying all along that I am. :)

I'm glad you brought that up, because I've been back and forth over whether or not to apologize to you for being so aggressive.

To take myself completely out of game mode for a second, I've been very agressive towards you because I think it's been the best way to win the game for my side. I hope you don't take it personally and I'm sure we can kick back in the other thread soon enough. This is probably obvious to you but I want to make that clear. In the meantime I am looking forward to your imminent demise.

[Gadarene]

Apology accepted, particularly if you answer this question:

To take myself completely out of game mode for a second, I've been very agressive towards you because I think it's been the best way to win the game for my side.

Which is your side, zuma? :)

[zuma]

Town, of course.

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

Unvote Pygmy Rugger.

After much consideration, I'm going to have to go with Queuing. I am inclined to believe Blaster Master, and I think we should give his plan a try. If it fails, he's dead tomorrow. Vote Queuing.

Here's a vote count:

(8) Queuing - (FlyingCowOfDoom, kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast, brewha, glee, Winston Smith)
(6) Pleonast - (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Suburban Plankton, Queuing, Gadarene)
(6) Gadarene - (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach, Sturmhauke, Malacandra)
(2) Pygmy Rugger - (MadTheSwine, Menocchio)
(2) Blaster Master - (Lakai, hocow)
(1) Menocchio - (Autolycus)

--FCOD

[Winston Smith]

Town, of course.

Of course, there's really only one way to find out...

[Gadarene]

Town, of course.

Then we're on the same freaking side, you knucklehead. :p You really think the probability is that high that every one of my posts has been 100 percent subterfuge?

[Gadarene]

Also, what's the reasoning for lynching Queuing in particular? Can someone spell it out for me? Or are we all just dazzled by JSexton's shimmering analysis?

[zuma]

Then we're on the same freaking side, you knucklehead. :p You really think the probability is that high that every one of my posts has been 100 percent subterfuge?

If it makes you feel any better, I'd rather string up JSexton before you, with a side of Autolycus.

[Queuing]

Well it looks like I am about to hang. Which is fine, if we just get this damn day over with. I hope you gain a lot of information from my death. I ask that, since sides have been clearly drawn, that the town requests BM kills someone from the other side. In other words, Pleonast or Zuma. This would give the most information. One from each side, you get ti find out who is lieing.

Of course it would be REALLY funny if none of us are, we are all town and just think differently. I submit if that happens we go back to Rysto's post, and lynch JSexton.

[Gadarene]

Well it looks like I am about to hang. Which is fine, if we just get this damn day over with. I hope you gain a lot of information from my death. I ask that, since sides have been clearly drawn, that the town requests BM kills someone from the other side. In other words, Pleonast or Zuma. This would give the most information. One from each side, you get ti find out who is lieing.

I agree with this as well. In fact, it seems fairly common sense.

[Winston Smith]

Also, what's the reasoning for lynching Queuing in particular? Can someone spell it out for me? Or are we all just dazzled by JSexton's shimmering analysis?

For me it was the elaborate and unceasing pursuit of Master Blaster. I posted my reasoning and a couple QUOTEs to back 'em up.

Are you defending him? Trying to disperse suspicion? And what's wrong with jsexton's analysis? I happen to agree with him on many points. You're in the bullpen, and I think it's making you twitchy.

Good.

[zuma]

Well it looks like I am about to hang. Which is fine, if we just get this damn day over with. I hope you gain a lot of information from my death. I ask that, since sides have been clearly drawn, that the town requests BM kills someone from the other side. In other words, Pleonast or Zuma. This would give the most information. One from each side, you get ti find out who is lieing.

Of course it would be REALLY funny if none of us are, we are all town and just think differently. I submit if that happens we go back to Rysto's post, and lynch JSexton.

I propose we put Queuing over 10 votes, and Blaster Master kills JSexton. I'm willing to back off Gadarene for now and I am willing to off JSexton on the premise that chrisk was pretty suspicious and the near-univeral choice on the beginning of day one. Add to that his mistrust of the vig, and on the possibility that chrisk was scum, which I think is pretty high, having an experienced player in the scum role is dangerous.

Let's get Queuing over 10 votes and if Blaster Master agrees with me, kill JSexton.

[Gadarene]

Winston:
For me it was the elaborate and unceasing pursuit of Master Blaster. I posted my reasoning and a couple QUOTEs to back 'em up.

Fair enough.

Are you defending him?

Only in that I don't see any reason to suspect him (since Blaster Master obviously twigs my radar as well).

Trying to disperse suspicion?

Trying to understand. I like understanding things.

And what's wrong with jsexton's analysis? I happen to agree with him on many points.

JSexton's "analysis" consisted in large part of his simply airing his gut instincts about various people with little or no elaboration. And, if Blaster Master is the Vigilante, it's already been proven completely wrong in one major instance. It was hilarious how quickly so many people signed on to what he said, seemingly just because he put it in handy list form and used lots of declaratives. :) I'm not saying he's wrong about any of it, and I know he's a Mafia player of some repute, but everyone's apparently just assuming he's town...even though some of you were all hot to lynch chrisk before he stepped into the role.

You're in the bullpen, and I think it's making you twitchy.

Hell no. I just want this day done with without too much harm to the town. If you lynch me, now or later, you'll be lynching a vanilla townie. Period. Since no one's really pointed to anything suspicious that I've done, there's not much more I can say except that this is my first Mafia game, and I'm apparently not very good. :)

[Gadarene]

zuma:

Let's get Queuing over 10 votes and if Blaster Master agrees with me, kill JSexton.

I think this is an awful idea. Queuing's proposal makes by far the most sense: kill him or me and then someone from the bloc we've been butting heads with---you, storyteller, glee, or Pleonast. That way we get maximum information. What in the world would be accomplished by killing JSexton? That's really suspicious to me, actually.

Look: if you accept that there have been two sides roughly drawn up today, then why in the world wouldn't we kill one from both, if we're even slightly unsure about Blaster Master's role-claim? :confused:

[zuma]

zuma:



I think this is an awful idea. Queuing's proposal makes by far the most sense: kill him or me and then someone from the bloc we've been butting heads with---you, storyteller, glee, or Pleonast. That way we get maximum information. What in the world would be accomplished by killing JSexton? That's really suspicious to me, actually.

Look: if you accept that there have been two sides roughly drawn up today, then why in the world wouldn't we kill one from both, if we're even slightly unsure about Blaster Master's role-claim? :confused:

I'm good with Blaster Master killing (if he's able to do so) you, JSexton, or Pleonast at his own discretion. He needs to tell us who it is first tho.

[zuma]

And we're testing out Blaster Master's role claim tonight. We'll have answers tomorrow.

[Gadarene]

And we're testing out Blaster Master's role claim tonight. We'll have answers tomorrow.

Due respect, zuma, but let's say Queuing and I get lynched and targeted, respectively, and we both turn out to be town (and I guarantee that at least one of us will). If nobody from your side has been tested as well, you've got plausible deniability that Queuing and I were just poor, misguided fools. I don't buy it. We need something from Column A and something from Column B.

And, along those lines, my next post is going to have some math in it.

[Malacandra]

I'm prepared to switch votes once Blaster Master announces his target.

[Suburban Plankton]

There are four people who between them have made about a zillion and one posts "today". Those people, along with their "primary suspects" are:

Blaster Master: suspecting Gadarene and Queueing

Gadarene: suspecting Blaster Master and Pleonast

Queueing: suspecting Blaster Master and Pleonast

zuma: suspecting JSexton, Gadarene, Queueing, and pimaspinner


So it appears that we have Gadarene and Queuieng on one side, and Blaster Master, zuma, and Pleonast on the other. Blaster Master seems to have saved his skin for today, so who do we take out? At this point, I don't think we have the evidence needed to make a "quality" choice. It's only Day 2, people! The amount of concrete evidence we have to go on is still amazingly small; in fact, I believe it amounts to one breadcrumb. Yet half of us (myself included) have already figured out in our own minds who all of the Mafia are, and are now ready to start picking them off one by one, if only everybody else would quit bickering and just get on with it.

The fact is, at least half of us are wrong in our theories. Tonight, if we get lucky we either lynch a Mafia member. Then we pick up on whomever was calling for that person's head, and go after the rest of their list. If we aren't lucky, we lynch a citizen. If that happens, we are all screwed. Not just because that puts us down 8 Citizens (most likely) by dawn, but because then we will have no idea who to believe. Were the voters all scum? Or were they just misguided? Maybe the bandwagon was started by scum; maybe it was started by an innocent, then piled on by scum. If we make a wrong choice tonight, then Day 3 is going to make Day 2 look like a picnic.

And upon further reflection, I have decided that it is unlikely that Blaster Master is Mafia; though I still think its 50/50 whether he is the Vigilante or the Serial Killer.

As much as Iwant to see this game move along, I think now that we are going to need every last bit of time between now and Wednesday to make sure we get this right. So for now,

unvote Pleonast.

I need to think.

[zuma]

I don't think Blaster Master should kill me for one reason. I was the person who defended him against a bs attack on him (which you were a part of) long before he claimed. If Blaster Master is the vig, killing me or anyone on my "side" would be insane. I was the one who stuck my neck out defending him against really shitty reasoning.

I think Blaster Master should decide for himself who was on his side or not. I was the one who proposed that a giant ball of cow crap was being leveled against him with shaky reasoning.

I'll trust Blaster Master's decision, as long as he makes it known.

[storyteller0910]

zuma:



I think this is an awful idea. Queuing's proposal makes by far the most sense: kill him or me and then someone from the bloc we've been butting heads with---you, storyteller, glee, or Pleonast. That way we get maximum information. What in the world would be accomplished by killing JSexton? That's really suspicious to me, actually.

Look: if you accept that there have been two sides roughly drawn up today, then why in the world wouldn't we kill one from both, if we're even slightly unsure about Blaster Master's role-claim? :confused:

Hey, I'm about to say something totally different: I agree with Gadarene. We should kill one person from each of the "sides" that have been drawn up. This will not give us perfect information, I guess, but it will give us some.

Actually, the fact that Queuing proposed the idea in the first place makes me even more reluctant to cast my vote in his direction; the idea itself seems quite town, even if some of Queuing's other moves - particularly the relentless obsession with Blaster Master as CaerieD's crumb - have not.

<sigh>

Once more through the thread, and then I vote.

[Hockey Monkey]

Queuing's vote tally is filled with my scum list. Especially now that glee and FCOD have jumped ship like I expected them to do. I don't believe Blaster Master's claim, but I am willing to let that situation work itself out. I don't think that either Queuing or Gadarene are scum. I don't know about Pleonast, but I am going to put my vote there, and hope for the best.

Vote Pleonast.

[Gadarene]

Okay. So we started out with 37 players. In NAF's post #72, he states that there may be as many as 10 Mafia members. For the purposes of this post, let's assume the worst-case scenario. (Post #72 makes it unclear whether he's counting the Godfather as one of those 10 or as a separate role, but let's say 10 for now.)

So if there are 10 Mafia members and 1 Serial Killer (and there's definitely a Serial Killer), that leaves us with 26 townspeople. 6 townies have now been offed. Which means, going into tonight, there are:

20 citizens
10 Mafia
1 Serial Killer

Let's assume worst-case again. Say that Blaster Master is the Vigilante, but that he accidentally targets a citizen. Say also that we mistakenly lynch a citizen. Say, of course, that the Mafia also targets a citizen (which is extremely likely; their only other possibility would be the SK). Finally, say that the Serial Killer---who by now must be rubbing his hands with glee (no pun intended) at the prospect of surviving to one of his victory conditions---targets an obvious citizen. That means four more citizens down, and the following count as Day 3 dawns:

16 citizens
10 Mafia
1 Serial Killer

All of a sudden, the Town is in deep, deep trouble...whether or not Blaster Master has accurately role-claimed. Hell, if he hasn't accurately role-claimed, and if you lynch either Queuing or me and we turn out to be Town, then Town is down to 17 players (assuming the SK can accurately peg a prominent citizen) after tonight. Now, this is my first time playing, but isn't that starting to cut it very thin indeed?

My point is that if tonight is another bloodbath---as it would be if we don't hedge our bets and target players from opposite sides of the lines that have been drawn---then it may not matter whether or not Blaster Master is telling the truth; the Town will likely be in too dire straits by then to have a strong chance going forward anyway.

Does any of that make sense?

[zuma]

If Blaster Master trusts me, I think he should kill Jsexton, Gadarene, or anyone he feels was on the mafia bandwagon to lynch him.

[Gadarene]

If Blaster Master trusts me, I think he should kill Jsexton, Gadarene, or anyone he feels was on the mafia bandwagon to lynch him.

I'm telling you right now: lynching Queuing and having Blaster Master target me is an absolutely insane idea...and I suspect it would prove extremely detrimental to the town.

[Santo Rugger]

Due respect, zuma, but let's say Queuing and I get lynched and targeted, respectively, and we both turn out to be town (and I guarantee that at least one of us will). If nobody from your side has been tested as well, you've got plausible deniability that Queuing and I were just poor, misguided fools. I don't buy it. We need something from Column A and something from Column B.<snip>

Bolding mine. This reminds me of the riddle: If you have two coins worth 30 cents, and one of them isn't a nickle, what are the two coins?

A quarter and a nickle. One of them isn't a nickle, but the other one is.

<snip>

Blaster Master: suspecting Gadarene and Queueing

Gadarene: suspecting Blaster Master and Pleonast

Queueing: suspecting Blaster Master and Pleonast

zuma: suspecting JSexton, Gadarene, Queueing, and pimaspinner<snip>
Assuming that BM is the Vig, and I think we kind of have to at this point, since he wants to off Gadarene and Queueing, Pleonast might be our best choice. That said, I'm still going to hold off on my vote for a bit, although it will be one of those 3, with the implication that BM tells us who he's going to kill tonight, and if he's wrong, he's gone tomorrow.

[zuma]

Well, we need to get someone on 10 votes soon, and BM needs to tell us his choice. I'm all about time management for town.

[Gadarene]

I'm all about time management for town.

Sure you are.

[Santo Rugger]

I'm telling you right now: lynching Queuing and having Blaster Master target me is an absolutely insane idea...and I suspect it would prove extremely detrimental to the town.

I'm inclined to believe this thought, even if it is worth a nickle. You're right, we need to split the killings. Collumn A goes to Pleonast.

Note: This is not because I think he's scum, but at this point, we need the information, and since I'm inclined to trust BM for the night, and he wants to off Gadarene or Queuing, I think this vote is placed where it can best uncover at least one scum tonight, hopefully three.

[zuma]

Sure you are.

I think my history of bitching about poor time management speaks for itself.

[Queuing]

Zuma, I don't see how killing one side of the debate completely makes any sense at all. Are you denying that there are 2 clear sides here? Are you disputing the make-up as stated of the 2 sides?

BM does NOT get to decide who he wants to kill. The mere suggestion that he has any input at all is making me doubt his claim more and more, and you as well. BM must become a tool of the town. Tools do not get to decide where and how they operate.

It is insane, and frankly, Zuma, your thinking is hilarious.

[Gadarene]

Pygmy Rugger:
I'm inclined to believe this thought, even if it is worth a nickle.

Thanks. By way of explaining my comment, I'll reiterate that I'm working under the assumption that Queuing is Town, since he and I have been employing nearly identical reasoning over the course of this gameday. Of course, he might not be town. I have no inside knowledge. I'm not a cop. I'm not a mason. I'm not Mafia. I have no idea who's who except through my own observations---which are, as Suburban Plankton noted---based on very, very thin gruel at this point in the game.

So if Queuing and I were both to die tonight, I can tell you with the certainty of a thousand stern nuns that you'd be lynching at least one citizen...me. Could Queuing be scum? Hell, sure he could. Unlike some of the other players here, I don't pretend to have all the answers. ;) But at best it would be a 1:1 trade for the Town. Which is fine, as long as you understand that that's the best-case scenario. (And, if you factor in the other night killings, it's far more likely to be 2:1 or even 3:1 against the Town.)

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

Quick vote count:

(8) Queuing - (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast, brewha, glee, Winston Smith, FlyingCowOfDoom)
(7) Pleonast - (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Queuing, Gadarene, pimaspinner, Pygmy Rugger)
(6) Gadarene - (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach, sturmhauke, Malacandra)
(2) Blaster Master - (Lakai, hocow)
(2) Pygmy Rugger - (MadTheSwine, Menocchio)

--FCOD

[zuma]

Zuma, I don't see how killing one side of the debate completely makes any sense at all. Are you denying that there are 2 clear sides here? Are you disputing the make-up as stated of the 2 sides?

BM does NOT get to decide who he wants to kill. The mere suggestion that he has any input at all is making me doubt his claim more and more, and you as well. BM must become a tool of the town. Tools do not get to decide where and how they operate.

It is insane, and frankly, Zuma, your thinking is hilarious.

Point taken, Queuing. I know I'm town, and if BM is vig he knows or suspects it as well. But yeah, it should be a town concensus. In any event, we need to put someone over the edge and get BM to announce his choice.

[Winston Smith]

Winston:
Fair enough.
Only in that I don't see any reason to suspect him (since Blaster Master obviously twigs my radar as well).
Trying to understand. I like understanding things.
JSexton's "analysis" consisted in large part of his simply airing his gut instincts about various people with little or no elaboration. And, if Blaster Master is the Vigilante, it's already been proven completely wrong in one major instance. It was hilarious how quickly so many people signed on to what he said, seemingly just because he put it in handy list form and used lots of declaratives. :) I'm not saying he's wrong about any of it, and I know he's a Mafia player of some repute, but everyone's apparently just assuming he's town...even though some of you were all hot to lynch chrisk before he stepped into the role.
Hell no. I just want this day done with without too much harm to the town. If you lynch me, now or later, you'll be lynching a vanilla townie. Period. Since no one's really pointed to anything suspicious that I've done, there's not much more I can say except that this is my first Mafia game, and I'm apparently not very good. :)

Yes, I was lobbying to lynch chrisk instead of subbing him out. I'm disappointed in my fellow townies for not seeing that that was the sensible thing to do. Now we've got jsexton who (as you said) is a player of some repute. I'm not throwing all my trust in his direction, but for the time being he's posting sentiments in line with my own regarding who's town and who's Mafia. Thus, I'll vote with him. If we learn that you and Q aren't Mafia (after we've lynched you, of course) I'll have to re-examine my assumptions.

Of course if it plays out that way I'll probably be not long for town anyways. MadTheSwine seems to be on temporary hiatus from pursuing me, but as I mentioned earlier he has alterior motives which aren't immediately obvious and some folks might have a hard time understanding. Nonethelss, he may be ultimately successful in drumming up enough support to throw a little party with good ol' Winston as the guest of honor.

All that being said, I do agree with you on one point - I'd like to get things going and move this painfully slow game along to the next day.

[Hockey Monkey]

I agree with zuma on one point only. I'd like to see this come to a head fairly soon. Other than that, zuma is now very high on my suspect list. It looks as if it's going to come down to a lynch of either Queuing or Pleonast. I submit that one get lynched and the other get killed tonight by Blaster Master. (If of course, he can really do that). One town and one scum, hopefully.

[Queuing]

Point taken, Queuing. I know I'm town, and if BM is vig he knows or suspects it as well. But yeah, it should be a town concensus. In any event, we need to put someone over the edge and get BM to announce his choice.
I agree. Someone should be at 10. In the 12 hours, the town has another vote. This one on who from your side gets killed. In this your side doesn't get a vote (that would be BM, Zuma and Pleonast). This is whom BM kills.

I would love to still have a vote in the 12 hours (but not sure if I would) however it is now firmly aimed at YOU.

Unvote Pleonast

Lynch Zuma

[zuma]

I agree with zuma on one point only. I'd like to see this come to a head fairly soon. Other than that, zuma is now very high on my suspect list. It looks as if it's going to come down to a lynch of either Queuing or Pleonast. I submit that one get lynched and the other get killed tonight by Blaster Master. (If of course, he can really do that). One town and one scum, hopefully.

Yes, it is now critical that someone gets 10 votes. BM then needs to give us his choice, and all involved need to offer up their defenses.

[Hockey Monkey]

I agree. Someone should be at 10. In the 12 hours, the town has another vote. This one on who from your side gets killed. In this your side doesn't get a vote (that would be BM, Zuma and Pleonast). This is whom BM kills.

I would love to still have a vote in the 12 hours (but not sure if I would) however it is now firmly aimed at YOU.

Unvote Pleonast
Lynch Zuma

Of course, this is a bandwagon I will gladly ride as well. :D

[Queuing]

Yes, it is now critical that someone gets 10 votes. BM then needs to give us his choice, and all involved need to offer up their defenses.
Again, you are allowing BM his choice. BM is a tool, nothing more. He does not get a choice, or a voice really. All BM is now is a mad killing machine aimed at whomever the town decides.

Gadarene I urge you to change your vote, put me at 10. Same with you Pimaspinner.

Let us begin the 2nd decision on whom to kill.

Order BM to kill Zuma. Zuma seems quite confident that BM trusts him. I ask why? Is there something there? Are there 2 scum here? Or do we have the SK and Vig here?. Let us find out. Pleonast can always be strung up tomorrow, once I am proven to be town.

[Gadarene]

Yes, it is now critical that someone gets 10 votes. BM then needs to give us his choice, and all involved need to offer up their defenses.

I'll reiterate Queuing's question, zuma. (I notice you appeared to agree with him, but then dodged it entirely.) Why does Blaster Master get a "choice" in this matter? Why aren't you saying, "We need to get someone to 10 votes and then tell Blaster Master who to target"?

[Gadarene]

Queuing:
Gadarene I urge you to change your vote, put me at 10. Same with you Pimaspinner.

I want zuma's talk about Blaster Master's "choice" cleared up first.

[zuma]

Again, you are allowing BM his choice. BM is a tool, nothing more. He does not get a choice, or a voice really. All BM is now is a mad killing machine aimed at whomever the town decides.

Gadarene I urge you to change your vote, put me at 10. Same with you Pimaspinner.

Let us begin the 2nd decision on whom to kill.

Order BM to kill Zuma. Zuma seems quite confident that BM trusts him. I ask why? Is there something there? Are there 2 scum here? Or do we have the SK and Vig here?. Let us find out. Pleonast can always be strung up tomorrow, once I am proven to be town.

OK, I am going to agree with you here that we need to put you over 10. Let's get it to the second decision.

[zuma]

Blaster Master should announce a town-approved choice soon after someone gets 10 votes. At this point SOMEONE needs get get 10 votes and I'll reiterate that Queuing needs the votes so we can move on the the Master Blaster vote choice.

[Queuing]

Queuing:


I want zuma's talk about Blaster Master's "choice" cleared up first.
Fair enough, as I would like to hear it as well.

May I make a further suggestion?

We vote in Dark Orangefor the first BM killing. This can just be a one time thing, and I propose Rysto as the leader of this, the tiebreaker if you will.

Assassinate Zuma

[zuma]

Let's just get you to 10 votes and then we can talk about who Blaster Master should look at.

[Queuing]

Let's just get you to 10 votes and then we can talk about who Blaster Master should look at.
Uh huh, sure thing there.... :dubious:

[zuma]

Gadarene I urge you to change your vote, put me at 10. Same with you Pimaspinner.

Let us begin the 2nd decision on whom to kill.


I'm just agreeing with you.

[Pleonast]

Ok, the threat against me is high enough and the time is short enough, that I'll make my defense now.

I'm a Mason. I don't expect to survive the night, but by claiming I hope to increase the odds the Vig (and maybe the SK) takes out a Mafia.

My actual knowledge is only a little better than the typical townie. And I'm not going to out any of the other Masons (who are apparently playing a better game than me :D ), so keep that in mind when reading my opinions.

TRUST LIST

Blaster Master: I was tending to trust before his claim, and I see no reason to target him now. He'll kill for the town or he'll die.

glee: takes reasoned approaches. I'm almost certain he's on the town's side.

JSexton/chrisk: I took chrisk as a townie who made a few stumbles. JSexton's analysis looks good, although his accusations against me (bandwagonning? giving tells by listing my suspects?) are silly. The least trusted on my trust list.

Menocchio: I originally thought he was Mafia, but I believe was the breadcrumb given by the Detective. So unless he's the Godfather (game over if he is), he's town.

Rysto and storyteller: both good analysis players. Show all the signs of being town.

zuma: seeing through the bandwagons the Mafia have been trying to finish.

MISTRUST LIST

Aguecheek: I haven't liked his votes or his reasoning.

Autolycus: His posts are impossible for me to interpret. I can't read patois, so even if he's giving legit info, I don't know what they are. He's not helping me, so on the mistrust list. But the least mistrusted.

Gadarene and Queuing: these are the scum. Bandwagonning me and others. Please, Vig, take out whichever one we don't lynch.

Suburban Plankton: I'm not liking how he's voting. I think he's currently unvoted me, so either he's a Townie who's finally stopped being fooled, or he's a Mafia trying to distance himself from Gadarene and Queuing. Likely the latter.

Thems your breadcrumbs; enjoy the feast.

[Santo Rugger]

Let's just get you to 10 votes and then we can talk about who Blaster Master should look at.

Wow.

Unvote Pleonast.

Vote Queuing.

Assasinate zuma

[Queuing]

Ok, the threat against me is high enough and the time is short enough, that I'll make my defense now.

I'm a Mason. I don't expect to survive the night, but by claiming I hope to increase the odds the Vig (and maybe the SK) takes out a Mafia.

My actual knowledge is only a little better than the typical townie. And I'm not going to out any of the other Masons (who are apparently playing a better game than me :D ), so keep that in mind when reading my opinions.

TRUST LIST

Blaster Master: I was tending to trust before his claim, and I see no reason to target him now. He'll kill for the town or he'll die.

glee: takes reasoned approaches. I'm almost certain he's on the town's side.

JSexton/chrisk: I took chrisk as a townie who made a few stumbles. JSexton's analysis looks good, although his accusations against me (bandwagonning? giving tells by listing my suspects?) are silly. The least trusted on my trust list.

Menocchio: I originally thought he was Mafia, but I believe was the breadcrumb given by the Detective. So unless he's the Godfather (game over if he is), he's town.

Rysto and storyteller: both good analysis players. Show all the signs of being town.

zuma: seeing through the bandwagons the Mafia have been trying to finish.

MISTRUST LIST

Aguecheek: I haven't liked his votes or his reasoning.

Autolycus: His posts are impossible for me to interpret. I can't read patois, so even if he's giving legit info, I don't know what they are. He's not helping me, so on the mistrust list. But the least mistrusted.

Gadarene and Queuing: these are the scum. Bandwagonning me and others. Please, Vig, take out whichever one we don't lynch.

Suburban Plankton: I'm not liking how he's voting. I think he's currently unvoted me, so either he's a Townie who's finally stopped being fooled, or he's a Mafia trying to distance himself from Gadarene and Queuing. Likely the latter.

Thems your breadcrumbs; enjoy the feast.

Have to say, you didn't need to do that. I am falling on my sword, and trying to swing things at Zuma. This is what I was hoping to avoid, something such as this. You will find out though, you are wrong.

Plus, dammit people! I never bandwagonned anybody! I drove the damn thing!

[zuma]

Have to say, you didn't need to do that. I am falling on my sword, and trying to swing things at Zuma. This is what I was hoping to avoid, something such as this. You will find out though, you are wrong.

Plus, dammit people! I never bandwagonned anybody! I drove the damn thing!

Are you at 10 votes yet?

[Gadarene]

Queuing:
You will find out though, you are wrong.

Yes he will, won't he? (Is it a he, Pleonast?)

Anyway, do we have ten on Queuing now?

assassinate zuma

[JSexton]

If, as you say, the SK is out to kill mafia, why aren't you saying, 'Here's a knife, go to my son and god bless'?

Why is 'cutting down the number of deaths each night' a goal to be sought? Citizen deaths, sure, but isn't the only thing better than a dead scum TWO dead scum?
Fair question. Here's my thinking:

The town's best weapon by far is the lynch. A directed nightkill is a distant second. Why? Two reasons. First, a lynch is public and accountable. You gain information from it, starting with the dead person's alignment, followed by the votes for and against, who started the wagon, who followed it, who deflected it, etc. With a night kill, all you get is alignment. Period.

Now, we're doing the right thing by making the nightkill a publis discussion, but it still doesn't have the same accountability as a lynch.

Another part of that issue is that we won't be able to find out the first lynch's alignment until we've already settled on a target for Blaster. That means that death isn't maximizing the information available.

The second reason is that it's in the town's interest ot have as many days as possible. The shorter the game, the more likely it is to result in a mafia victory. More night kills=a shorter game.

There you go. Directing a nightkiller shortens the game, makes kills based on incomplete info, and doesn't yield the same informatino as a lynch.

So, assuming you have called everything correctly, that Blaster Master is the SK and Pleonast, Queuing, Glee, and Aguecheek are all mafia, we could have these two situations:

A) We hang Blaster Master today. The SK is dead, the Vig turns into an ordinary citizen. Tonight the Mafia kill the townie of their choice. Result come dawn of Day 3: Dead citizens - 7 Dead SK - 1 Dead Mafia *0*

B) We hang one of the four you call Mafia. The Mafia kill a townie of their choice. Overnight the SK kills another of the IDed Mafia. The Vig kills a third. Result come dawn of Day 3: Dead citizens - 7 Dead Mafia **3**

(Okay, this ignores protections and blockers and such, but...)

Please explain to me why you think it's, your words, pressing to kill the SK? Why isn't it better to be rid of three Mafia and leave the SK for another day?
Well, it also assumes that I'm right. I'm certainly not infallible. That's why I'd rather have a discussion about each of the folks that I called out, and listen to how they defend themselves. I may well change my mind based on their defense and/or claim.

[NAF1138]

Are you at 10 votes yet?
only 9

[zuma]

I'm not sure where you're going with that claim, Pleonast. But there we have it. We have a day for real masons to out him. If we have a counter claim we string his ass up. If not, more shit to look at tomorrow.