Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!) [Archive] - Page 8

Santo Rugger

04-05-2007, 12:50 PM

<snip>As of right now, I'm most suspicious of Pygmy Rugger. These are his votes yesterday: JSexton, Blaster Master, Pleonast, Queuing, Gadarene. Basically, he was pinging around all the bandwagons, hoping to get one of them moving too fast to stop.

Allow me to explain myself. I first voted for chrisk, because of his actions in trying to expose the cop. When we decided it wouldn't be fair to JSexton to lynch him before he had a chance to catch up and post his theory, I switched my vote to Blaster Master, as I felt he was acting very suspicious at that time. When it turned out he was Vig*, I had to chose one person from the two sides that had formed, and I felt that Gadarene was an honest townie. At that point, Pleonast got my vote, as he was the person on his respective side of yesterdays debates. I reluctantly** changed when he claimed Mason, and switched to Queuing. With my final vote change, to Gadarene, I explicity stated I thought he was town, and was simply changing my vote to end the day sooner. At that point, and I stated it several times, we were simply trying to get blood from a turnip, and a lynching needed to happen in order to get more information, instead of blind debating.

*I have no reason to doubt this now, because even if he isn't, the Doc won't protect him forever, and the real Vig can take him out. As for him being the SK, he has no reason to claim, as it would have been, effectively, suicide.

**I firmly believe, now, Pleonast and zuma are Masons, or there would have been a counterclaim by now.

Santo Rugger

04-05-2007, 12:53 PM

Hm. Well, I disagree on two points there - I'm certainly not in cahoots, and dammit, I am worth something, aren't I? After being dismissed by both you and Autolycus, my feelings, they are hurt.
Actually, I felt it was smart to keep my head down while us townies had an advantage<snip>

Sorry to say, but if your feelings are hurt because you're being accused, you shouldn't be playing. No offence, but the only way we're going to flush out the scum is by accusing some that aren't.

Can you please explain why you think it was smart to keep your head down when we had an advantage?

Queuing

04-05-2007, 12:56 PM

I am pretty sure ArizonaTeach was just joking there fellows. I really can't see anyone actually getting upset and insulted about a game where we are suppose to accuse people and call them names (to a certain extent).

Thats it, please continue. :)

MadTheSwine

04-05-2007, 01:19 PM

With my final vote change, to Gadarene, I explicity stated I thought he was town, and was simply changing my vote to end the day sooner. At that point, and I stated it several times, we were simply trying to get blood from a turnip, and a lynching needed to happen in order to get more information, instead of blind debating.

I don't understand voting for someone you think is town simply to end the day sooner. I felt then, as now, that you were trying to cover your tracks for that vote.

Vote Pygmy Rugger

Santo Rugger

04-05-2007, 01:29 PM

I don't understand voting for someone you think is town simply to end the day sooner. I felt then, as now, that you were trying to cover your tracks for that vote.

Vote Pygmy Rugger

I don't know why you have it out for me, but you've been the first to vote for me two days in a row.

The reason, and I'll state it again, that I wanted to end the day was because there was alot of finger pointing flying around, in multiple directions. It forced three valuable roles into claiming to spare their necks, and all the accusations on the second day were essentially random. Somebody was going to get lynched, and it was going to be one of the people involved in the heated arguments yesterday. I did not feel any more blood was going to be squeezed from the turnip without information coming via a lynching.

ArizonaTeach

04-05-2007, 01:31 PM

Sorry to say, but if your feelings are hurt because you're being accused, you shouldn't be playing. No offence, but the only way we're going to flush out the scum is by accusing some that aren't.

Can you please explain why you think it was smart to keep your head down when we had an advantage?Uh, yeah, that wooshing sound you hear...? Check out my response to Autolycus earlier in the thread.
In any case, sure, as a townie, I have absolutely no inside information, so I had no bread crumbs to drop and anything I did say would be analyzed ad infinitum to no purpose...the white noise I mentioned earlier. When I had suspicions, I posted and explained them, but blind speculation and the back-and-forthing here is going to sink the town. The mafia has managed to successfully confuse the issue repeatedly as far as I'm concerned, and I'm more apt to believe the heavy posters over the lighter ones at the moment.

ArizonaTeach

04-05-2007, 01:33 PM

Sorry, I mean "apt to believe the heavy posters are scum than the lighter ones."
My turn to say "damn no-edits!"

Oh, and Blaster, of course I'm not really upset. I just wanted to be loved, that's all. Sniff.

Queuing

04-05-2007, 01:46 PM

Sweet!

I was right!

ArizonaTeach was joking!

It feels good to be right for once :)

Aguecheek

04-05-2007, 02:19 PM

Okay.

hocow's posts. Not as much to go on, but like nesta, she's right in on the whole Blaster Master, Queuing, Malacandra fiasco.

Not many people weren't, however.

She does not respond to or acknowledge any of nesta's posts. The only time they intersect is when she also vaguely defends chrisk [JSexton] in post #694:

...In post #437, Queuing is fiercely defending chrisk, and saying that he should give us his "investigations" daily so we have something to work with. I took chrisk's hypothetical claim, as just that: hypothetical. He may or may not be a cop, but I took it to mean that everyone should do this to confuse mafia and leave breadcrumbs for when death ensues. However, if he is not a cop and continues to post "facts" it will hurt the townies that may believe him, if he posts inaccurately.

Day 1, she didn't get a chance to vote.
Day 2, she voted for Blaster Master

Blaster Master

04-05-2007, 02:32 PM

Oh, and Blaster, of course I'm not really upset. I just wanted to be loved, that's all. Sniff.I had a feeling you were, but I also felt I had legitimately upset others, and I just wanted to clear the air, just in case. I don't want anyone to harbor bad feelings towards me, or anyone else for that matter, because of a game.It feels good to be right for once :) :p
[BACK TO THE GAME]
Pygmy Rugger:

I agree with MTS that it looks very suspicious. Agreed, there was lot's of finger pointing, and I accept my fair share of the blame for it; however, I also think that your justification for not stepping in and defending Gadarene more than a disclaimer seems specifically anti-town. That is, it looks like you want to be able to say "see, I told you he wasn't town". The Enfant Terrible early lynching was a mistake because we lynched too early, and the Gadarene lynching was a mistake because no one (other than Queuing) was willing to step in and say something, and the four or five of us who were in the discussion had already drawn our lines.

We already learned the first lesson, and we're trying to address the second by having us louder citizens quiet down some (I admit, I haven't quieted much), and letting the other quieter citizens catch up and post more.

Aguecheek

04-05-2007, 02:41 PM

MonkeyMensch:

He's already responded, going back through his posts, listing his voting history.

Here's a couple, however, that spring up, when you read it, re: nesta, hocow, chrisk, Autolycus:

#697
So I'm FOSing in order chrisk, brewha (on his weak accusation of myself that Malacandra picked up on as well), and aguecheek for #393 where he accuses sturmhauke on nothing more than last game performance.#704
I don't want to bandwagon chrisk without a little more discussion so my vote should be brewha.Although chrisk was at the top of his FOS list, he voted brewha.

Something else of interest, which I think might have been brought up before, but I can't remember when or by whom:

#246
...I'm a noob and never read the parallel thread from last game.Soon after he states in #284:
...I followed the first game seriously closely, and am a fairly sharp tack...That in itself says nothing concrete, since he refers first to the forbidden thread, and secondly to the actual game thread, but it's still kinda hinky, y'ask me.

And that's it for me. Back to work. If someone wants to look at Pleonast and Autolycus, you're more than welcome to. I'm home late tonight, so I won't be able to read anything for a while.

Thanks for slowing it down, guys.

Santo Rugger

04-05-2007, 02:50 PM

Zuma, or JSexton, if you're still around, can you switch your votes and start the clock?

:confused: You yourself asked somebody to switch their votes from Q to G.

Suburban Plankton

04-05-2007, 03:24 PM

The first Werewolf game on this board had a total of 1,386 posts. By my count this thread had 1,023 posts in Day 2 alone. With that much going on, it's easy to forget that we are still "early" in the game. We've been jabbering back and forth at each other for what seems like forever, but it's been mostly just a lot of hot air. There still isn't a lot of real solid information out there. In fact, the list is really pretty short.

Things we know:

zuma and Pleonast are Masons

Unless there was only 1 Mason to begin with (which makes zero sense), it is inconceivable that none of the "real" Masons would have counter-claimed by now.

And that's about it. Which brings us to...

Things we think we know:

Menocchio is town.

This is based on the breadcrumb left by CaerieD. Sure, it's possible that this wasn't the breadcrumb, but I think we've pretty much left that discussion behind us.

Blaster Master is the Vigilante:

This one I think is probably true as well, but there is another scenario that I want to discuss.

I'll admit right off that I've suspected Blaster Master from way back, and part of my suspicion now is probably due to my stubbornness at not wanting to admit I was wrong. That being said, I think that there is a possibility that he could be Mafia. The reasoning against this idea is that the charade would only work as long as he was not instructed to target another Mafia member. But from the Mafia's point of view, what's wrong with that. He was going to be lynched yesterday until he claimed. Even if he was found out overnight, he gets one more chance to do damage. After people unvoted Blaster Master, the choice of target came down to Pleonast, Queuing, and Gadarene. We now know that two of those are confirmed town, and the heat seems to be off of Pleonast for the moment as well. So Blaster Master effectively traded his life for one of these others, knowing that we would most likely lynch a Citizen.
Then he offered to let us choose his nighttime target, which somehow ended up to be Winston Smith. How did that happen? I'm not certain, but I seem to recall that Blaster Master had something to do with the choice. (Unfortunately, my job that doesn't allow me the convenience of poring over the entire thread again to find evidence. If I'm way off base here, I'm sure someone will let me know.) That's two Citizens down, and Blaster Master still alive. Even if he were lynched today, the Mafia are up 2-1 on the deal.

So is Blaster Master the Vigilante, or is he Mafia scum? I must admit, the scenario I just spelled out is somewhat far-fetched, but it is far from impossible. At this point, I'd say that it is more likely that Blaster Master is the Vigilante, but I'm reserving my own judgment.

Again, a fairly short list. Which leaves me with one more point to make.

Things I suspect:

JSexton is Mafia

I was put off from the very beginning (of JSexton's tenure) by the fact that the Town seemed to look upon him as our Savior, here to single-handedly deliver us from the Mafia menace. I know, that wasn't his fault, but then again he didn't say anything to suggest that we should think otherwise. Let's take a look at some of his initial observations:

Probably Scum:
Blaster Master (Serial Killer)
Pleonast
Queueing
glee
Aguecheek
Gadarene
brewha
Fern Forest

From his "Probably scum" list, we now know (as much as we can know anything bout anyone who's still alive) that Pleonast and Gadarene are Town. Conventional wisdom says that Blaster Master is as well, and it also now appears that Queuing's biggest sin might have been getting stuck in the middle of yesterday's fiasco. Now I realize that with the exception of what I assume to be the Serial Killer's vote last night, we are batting a collective 0.000, but knowing what weight the town was putting into his analysis, I find these results a bit surprising. Also surprising is that although he identified all these folks as likely Mafia, and specifically pointed to the top 5 names in the list, the only one he actually voted for was Gadarene (number 6), and that only after 13 other people had beaten him to it.

Going back to his predecessor, chrisk, and his "let's all pretend we're cops" idea; I still can't see how that was supposed to benefit the town at all. the only thing it did was add lots and lots of noise to the thread. and the only people who benefit from the noise are those who have a means of filtering it out. there are only two groups in this game who have such a filter: the Masons and the Mafia. Since zuma has voted for JSexton, I'm guessing he isn't a Mason.

Vote JSexton.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to get back to work while I still have a job.

JSexton

04-05-2007, 03:27 PM

Uh, yeah, that wooshing sound you hear...? Check out my response to Autolycus earlier in the thread.
In any case, sure, as a townie, I have absolutely no inside information, so I had no bread crumbs to drop and anything I did say would be analyzed ad infinitum to no purpose...the white noise I mentioned earlier. When I had suspicions, I posted and explained them, but blind speculation and the back-and-forthing here is going to sink the town. The mafia has managed to successfully confuse the issue repeatedly as far as I'm concerned, and I'm more apt to believe the heavy posters over the lighter ones at the moment.
How do you know that? The only confirmed scum we have is nesta, who didn't post much at all.

I'm curious to know what brings you to this conclusion.

Queuing

04-05-2007, 03:39 PM

it also now appears that Queuing's biggest sin might have been getting stuck in the middle of yesterday's fiasco.

Hey!!

I lead a lot of yesterdays fiascodammit! No "in the middle here." But I do agree that it may have been my biggest sin. Of course, thats cause I was wrong.

This week has involved a lot of building computers and watching blue bars fill up. Man is that boring.

kivvik

04-05-2007, 03:51 PM

Suburban Plankton
I was put off from the very beginning (of JSexton's tenure) by the fact that the Town seemed to look upon him as our Savior, here to single-handedly deliver us from the Mafia menace. I know, that wasn't his fault, but then again he didn't say anything to suggest that we think otherwise.

I agree that we gave him too much credence. I think this was due to him being one of, if not the only, the few who had more Mafia experience than playing/reading the WereWolf game and attendant thread. We expected a miracle, and got what we deserved. A bunch of gut feelings and misreadings. But you know what? That's the best he could have done. It was the second day, and we had only slightly more than Jack Schitt to go by. He was wrong on some things, likely right on others. Just like most of us. Given that we have, or rather the SK likely has, knocked out a Mafioso, and we have three pretty much confirmed townies, his analytical skills, and that of our others of that bent, have that much more to go on. I do not declare him innocent! But I ain't gonna knock him for giving him just what we were asking of him, unless he continues to hold onto his earlier statements and refuses to change.

And his thoughts on Autolycus mirror my own, so hey, good vibes there* :p

*Unless that turns out to be a false feeling on his part. Then bad vibes. But I feel that he reached his conclusion about him the same way I did.

Hockey Monkey

04-05-2007, 04:11 PM

This post is bothering me. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8432088#post8432088)

<snip> We started with 38 players total; nine have been either lynched or night killed. Now, I needed to make some assumptions for the purpose of analysis; many of you may disagree with some of these, but I think that's OK - if our various inquiries lead in different directions for a few IRL days, we have less of a chance of winding up in a situation like yesterday, where one conflict dominates the entire discussion. So, my assumptions:

1. Pleonast and Zuma are really Masons. If they were not, I am fairly certain someone would have counterclaimed by now.

Agreed.

2. Queuing is town. I was leaning in this direction toward the latter half of yesterday based on his comments and approach, and nothing has happened since then to change my mind. I suppose it is possible that a Mafia would allow him/herself to accumulate 13 votes and encourage votes for him/her, in the hopes that a last minute save like the one that happened yesterday would happen. It is possible, but I think it exceedingly unlikely.

Agreed.

3. sturmhauke is town, per my reasoning elsewhere in this thread (essentially, the Day 1 bandwagon against him developed so fast and on so little evidence that there had to be scum behind it, and why would scum encourage a Day 1 bandwagon against scum?)

4. JSexton/chrisk is town. This is based mostly on my feelings about chrisk's postings right before he left the game, and is admittedly unscientific, but it's where I am right now.

5. Autolycus is town. Even less evidence-based an assumption than the one I made about JSexton, but at some point you have to go with your gut (even if it's the same gut that made you suspicious of both ET and Gadarene).

6. I (storyteller0910) am town. This one is pretty evidence-based from my perspective :-)

<snip> for continuity purposes

8. Rysto is town. I haven't seen anything even slightly suspicious, and his ideas seem to line up well with mine in many cases.

9. Menocchio is either town or the Godfather (based on our late Detective's findings). I suspect the former.

I don’t get the feeling that any of these people with the possible exception of Menocchio, is town. It reads like a scum list to me. Jsexton came out with his list of scum which was mostly now confirmed townfolk. How is this not suspicious? Autolycus I admit, I don’t know which way or the other, but I find it strange that you are sure he’s town. As for you yourself, you have been raising my suspicions all game, and this post has got the nail halfway down. You don’t think Rysto has done anything slightly suspicious? This post got me suspicous of him. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8426034#post8426034) Talking about how the mafia won’t be working in concert, but will be wreaking havoc on our suspicions by voting and unvoting each other. Made me think scum, not town.

7. Blaster Master is either the Vig as he claims, or the SK. I just can't see the Mafia developing a scheme where BM is the fake Vig, and wasting their night kill like that. It doesn't seem to benefit them much.

Agreed.

Here is the original town list:

<edited for brevity’s sake>

I have bold faced all those who, for these purposes, I'm eliminating from suspicion, either because they are dead, or for reasons outlined on my list of assumptions. With them removed, the list now looks like this:

Aguecheek
ArizonaTeach
brewha
Fern Forest
Flying Cow of Doom
Fretful Porpentine
glee
hocow
Kat
Kivvik
Lakai
MadTheSwine
Malacandra
MonkeyMensch
pimaspinner
Pygmy Rugger
Smitty
StarvingButStrong
Suburban Plankton

Most of the above people are obviously town. Some are certainly Mafia. My next goal is going to be to take a closer look at each one, and see if I can strike any off the list or move a few up.

Right now, though, I'm comfortable reiterating my suspicion of FlyingCowofDoom. As I noted yesterday, his name appears most often on the list of people who have voted for or pushed against people I trust. It's very early, but for the moment I would like to

vote FlyingCowofDoom <edited color tag>

More later.

This vote for FCOD strikes me as scum voting scum to get things started. I also find it a bit odd that he is pointing out who he thinks is town rather than who he thinks is scum. I’m trying to narrow down who I think is against us.

So in the people left list, here are who I think are bad guys. I added back the names that storyteller left off.

Aguecheek
ArizonaTeach
Autolycus
brewha
Fern Forest
Flying Cow of Doom - scum
Fretful Porpentine
Glee - scum
Hocow – scum, or SK if Blaster Master’s reasoning is correct
Jsexton - scum
Kat
Kivvik
Lakai
MadTheSwine
Malacandra
Menocchio
MonkeyMensch
pimaspinner
Pygmy Rugger
Rysto - scum
Smitty
StarvingButStrong
Sturmhauke
Storyteller0910 – scum
Suburban Plankton

Anyone not noted in the above post, I don’t have a reading on one way or the other.

hocow

04-05-2007, 04:23 PM

Okay.

hocow's posts.
She does not respond to or acknowledge any of nesta's posts. The only time they intersect is when she also vaguely defends chrisk [JSexton] in post #694:

Day 1, she didn't get a chance to vote.
Day 2, she voted for Blaster Master

What would you like me to respond to? If it will help clear me in your mind, by all means ask and ye shall receive. The first 2 days were incredibly long, and I've been putting in rough hours at work so I wasn't able to do a whole lot in a timely fashion. Not the case for a little while, I'll be able to keep up.

The first day I admit I was all for jumping on the Enfant bandwagon. He pinged my FOS for reasons I don't recall but are a moot point now anyway. I have already explained my suspicion of BM. However I have also played with the idea that he is the VIG, not the SK as I had originally expected. I'm not completely convinced as of this post, but I acknowledge the possibility that when I fingered him out for a kill role, my paranoia took over and automatically assumed scum killer.

Actually my main suspicion lies with Malacandra as she claims she cannot defend her accusations because it will cause Very Bad Things to happen to the town. I'm hiding nothing so I don't see what she can possibly have to reveal. :dubious:

NAF1138

04-05-2007, 04:34 PM

Actually my main suspicion lies with Malacandra as she claims she cannot defend her accusations because it will cause Very Bad Things to happen to the town. I'm hiding nothing so I don't see what she can possibly have to reveal. :dubious:
bolding mine

Ok, I feel bad for the guy now. Malacandra is a he. He has posted this twice in the thread at other points, but maybe if I post it you guys might slow down and read it.

JSexton

04-05-2007, 04:53 PM

JSexton, I don't buy your reasoning for getting rid of the Vig/SK this soon. Sure, there were some casualties early on, but the Vig has to kill every night, and the first time has to be random.
Yes. Random. As in a ~75% of killing town.

[qoute]By the second night there isn't much information to go on, so I'm willing to forgive that kill as well. [/quote]
Wrong. That kill was based on information. And it led to a townie kill. Of a Cop. Who never got the chance to claim. And left only one breadcrumb, and it's uncertain.

Now that we've got Blaster Master on a leash, we have an advantage.
And that went so well, didn't it?

You are way too suspicious to me. chrisk was way too suspicious posting his ODS idea after admitting it was a detriment to the town,
No argument from me on this one. It was a godawful idea, and were I in the game at that point, I'd have argued against it.
and you've come back with more anti-town logic.

Do you honestly not see how much the vig has hurt us? You're awfully cavalier with townie lives, FCow.

Lakai

04-05-2007, 04:55 PM

bolding mine

Ok, I feel bad for the guy now. Malacandra is a he. He has posted this twice in the thread at other points, but maybe if I post it you guys might slow down and read it.
Well at least it wasn't just me. I think it is because he has an "a" at the end of his name and planets are usually referred to as females.

I'm a dude BTW.

Fretful Porpentine

04-05-2007, 04:55 PM

You don’t think Rysto has done anything slightly suspicious? This post got me suspicous of him. Talking about how the mafia won’t be working in concert, but will be wreaking havoc on our suspicions by voting and unvoting each other. Made me think scum, not town.
Why is that suspicious? It seems to me to be a fairly common-sense bit of analysis, and one that he'd be more likely to keep to himself if he were scum.

I don't see anything inherently suspicious about storyteller0910's analysis, although I don't think we have any evidence either way about Autolycus, chrisk / JSexton, or Rysto, and I'm less confident about Queuing than everyone else seems to be.

I'm somewhat suspicious of Lakai, because this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8422025#post8422025) and this one (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8418517#post8418517) strike me as definite attempts to split posters into factions -- the sort of subtle, fan-the-flames-without-really-seeming-to strategy that I'm pretty sure the Mafia were engaging in on Day 2.

Aguecheek

04-05-2007, 05:02 PM

What would you like me to respond to?Honestly? Nothing that I can think of yet. I’m assuming that Mafia will want to show that they’re honest townfolk by laying the FOS on others. I’m also assuming that when push comes to shove, they’ll vote for each other, should the need arise to protect their own backs. But only if they need to.

We know nesta, our only confirmed mafia, stated that he wasn’t going to vote for you or MonkeyMensch on the one random voting day. The same day that others based their random votes using the exact same method he did. We also know he FOS’d Autolycus, chrisk and Pleonast, but ultimately, never voted for them.

I’m trying to see if the other people he either FOS’d or refused to vote for did the same for each other, since he’s the only one we know is scum, and his posts might point us to other scum.

So I pulled your posts and tried to see where you and nesta might have intersected, re: the five people he mentioned. You did once, when, like I mentioned, you vaguely defended chrisk. Nor have you voted for any of the above five. I’ve done the same for MonkeyMensch, and if I get a chance, I’ll look through the others’ posts. You’re welcome to do so as well.

All that information is established fact, and that’s what’ll eventually lead us to more scum, I hope. I’m not laying the FOS on you, just collecting data and posting it. I’m on your side regarding the ability to keep up - I’m currently typing this up in an e/mail, so it at least looks like I’m working…

Lakai

04-05-2007, 05:13 PM

Now that we've got Blaster Master on a leash, we have an advantage.

And that went so well, didn't it?

It's not like the town did any better. Now we have two kills instead of one. All we have to do is vote for two people during the day, one in blue for the lynching, and one in dark orange for the assassination.

Aguecheek: Scum, I think. Posts 393 stood out. Also, he’s been going after some perceived “easy” mislynches, like sturmhawke and Autolycus.

This one if from here. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8421755&postcount=1061)

Are you still suspicious of Augecheek? First day targets are pretty much random. Anyone has an equal chance of picking anyone. I don't see why Augecheek's post 393 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407731&postcount=393) is more suspicious than anyone else's on our first day's witch hunt.

Lakai

04-05-2007, 05:31 PM

I'm somewhat suspicious of Lakai, because this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8422025#post8422025) and this one (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8418517#post8418517) strike me as definite attempts to split posters into factions -- the sort of subtle, fan-the-flames-without-really-seeming-to strategy that I'm pretty sure the Mafia were engaging in on Day 2.

Since you mentioned this, I want to point out what I said from the second post you mentioned:

The only concrete evidence we gain will come from dead bodies. We need to choose one that will give us the most.

I wanted to see if my network theory would work out. Now that Pleonast and Zuma seem to be masons, I have given up on my theory. Now I need to look for something else.

Though if we decide to lynch Sturmhauke, we have a good record of who defended him on day 1 and 2. I’m just saying…

JSexton

04-05-2007, 05:46 PM

It's not like the town did any better. Now we have two kills instead of one. All we have to do is vote for two people during the day, one in blue for the lynching, and one in dark orange for the assassination.

This one if from here. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8421755&postcount=1061)

Are you still suspicious of Augecheek? First day targets are pretty much random. Anyone has an equal chance of picking anyone. I don't see why Augecheek's post 393 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407731&postcount=393) is more suspicious than anyone else's on our first day's witch hunt.
I thought the sturmhauke wagon was particularly ill-founded. It was largely ignored that the first three nightkills were done by three seperate groups, none of whom collaborated. Therefore, it's silly to say that a particular poster is "missing" from the list.

Aguecheek was saying that because the mafia didn't kill sturmhauke, he must be one of them. By inference, he also said that because the vig and SK didn't kill him, he must be mafia as well. Do you see how only the first point has any relation with its conclusion, and the second two are completely irrelevant?

And the way he tried to convince us that sturm was scum involved some very torured math:

There's been much discussion throughout as to why he wasn't killed the first night by either the mob, the Vigilante, or the Serial Killer. I think he's mob (as noted above). But if he isn't, there should still have been a very good chance for him getting offed by the Vig or SK for the very same reasons he should've been targeted by the mafia. And yet he still wasn't picked. That good a player, and three different factions didn't pick him? C'mon. If he's not mafia, then he's one of the other two killers.

And on the 2/3 chance that he's either scum or the Serial Killer, I say lynch sturmhauke.
I utterly fail to see how that chain of logic leads to a 2/3 chance of sturm being scum. Again, there was ZERO communication between the three parties with guns. Therefore, there can be no correlation between them failing to kill him.

It's pushing for a lynch on horribly flawed grounds. That's anti-town.

NAF1138

04-05-2007, 06:09 PM

Not that you need one right now, but I did promise at least 1 a day and this might be my only chance.

3- JSexton - (zuma, FCoD, Suburban Plankton)

1- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS)

1 - FCoD (Storyteller0910)

That's it. Almost 24 hours and only 5 votes...well at least it is harder for me to scew up now :D .

Hockey Monkey

04-05-2007, 06:11 PM

Not that you need one right now, but I did promise at least 1 a day and this might be my only chance.

3- JSexton - (zuma, FCoD, Suburban Plankton)

1- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS)

That's it. Almost 24 hours and only 4 votes...well at least it is harder for me to scew up now :D .

You missed one: ;)

1 - FCOD (storyteller)

NAF1138

04-05-2007, 06:11 PM

You missed one: ;)

1 - FCOD (storyteller)
shoot I thought I caught that before anyone saw it!

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-05-2007, 06:25 PM

Do you honestly not see how much the vig has hurt us? You're awfully cavalier with townie lives, FCow.I'm not denying that the Vig hurt us, but according to your logic we shouldn't lynch anyone at all. Having the Vig on a leash is like getting to lynch two people a day, and if we're incapable of telling the Vig who to kill, we're incapable of lynching someone ourselves.

Then again, based on our history, maybe we shouldn't be lynching anyone... :rolleyes:

--FCOD

Aguecheek

04-05-2007, 06:31 PM

Aguecheek was saying that because the mafia didn't kill sturmhauke, he must be one of them.Like 5, and ultimately 4, others did, including the Detective and currently town-approved Queuing. 3 former players were killed, and he wasn’t. Random.org, or random chance based on the other three victims’ past history? Both are just as reliable. My fault was trying to present a little background into it, however tortured it may be. I wanted to give some kind of reasoning.
By inference, he also said that because the vig and SK didn't kill him, he must be mafia as well.If you got that from my post, I didn’t mean to put it there. I was surprised he wasn’t killed when the others were and thought that was as good a reason as any other.
And the way he tried to convince us that sturm was scum involved some very torured math.Math and I are not very close friends. My apologies for that. I’ve also given up on trying to figure out Blaster Master’s early math post on cops and someone else’s early post on the need to keep the SK around, using numbers.

[T]here was ZERO communication between the three parties with guns. Therefore, there can be no correlation between them failing to kill him.You’re entirely correct, and I see that now. In my zeal to present my argument on the very first day, I did not even stop to think on that.

It's pushing for a lynch on horribly flawed grounds.Yup.

That's anti-town.So you say. I say it’s trying to justify a random vote so as not to come off looking like someone buying scratchoff lottery tickets and hoping to win a million dollars. Failed on both counts, and now I’ve got you and Queuing all over me like white on rice for it.

May I now return to my attempt to work out what nesta might have left for us? As horribly tortured as it may be?

storyteller0910

04-05-2007, 06:53 PM

All right, is there any way to quote a post that's quoting another post? I tried hitting the Reply button to pimaspinner's post, which quoted my original, and all it brings up in the edit box is her (?) comments, and not my originals. Well, hopefully this will be clear, but if anyone knows how I can manage to quote everything at once, I'd be most grateful.

Jsexton came out with his list of scum which was mostly now confirmed townfolk. How is this not suspicious?

Every last blessed one of us has identified people as scum who have turned out to be town. We lynched two townies. If I'm going to judge JSexton on the basis of one scum/not scum list that turned out to be less than 100% accurate, then pretty much I have to judge everyone in the same way. I am basing my opinion of JSexton's orientation on chrisk's parting statements. It may change.

Autolycus I admit, I don’t know which way or the other, but I find it strange that you are sure he’s town.

I never said I was sure. I said I was assuming, for the moment.

As for you yourself, you have been raising my suspicions all game, and this post has got the nail halfway down.

Fair enough. Can't really respond to this outside of the context of the current post, though.

You don’t think Rysto has done anything slightly suspicious? This post got me suspicous of him. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8426034#post8426034) Talking about how the mafia won’t be working in concert, but will be wreaking havoc on our suspicions by voting and unvoting each other. Made me think scum, not town.

What? This idea by Rysto sounds exactly right to me. Do you believe that the Mafia will be voting in concert in every situation? Because, frankly, that's insane.

This vote for FCOD strikes me as scum voting scum to get things started.

An interpretation which you have pulled from exactly nowhere. And incidentally, didn't you just say about six lines ago that you were suspicious of Rysto for saying that the Mafia would be doing exactly what you've just accused me of doing? Which is it? Am I scum voting for scum? Or would scum never do that, and therefore we should distrust Rysto?

I also find it a bit odd that he is pointing out who he thinks is town rather than who he thinks is scum. I’m trying to narrow down who I think is against us.

I actually have no idea why this is odd to you. I think it's just as valid an approach as the other. If we can eliminate certain names from consideration, we can look more closely at the suspects left over without as much static.

For the record, I stand behind my reasoning. I am still trying to look more closely at the people on my suspect list, but have had little time today to do so. I'd really rather not fling unfounded suspicion around without some consideration - the only person I mistrust right now, pending more in-depth study, is FCoD, so that's where my vote stands. Leaping into the fray shouting "scum" at everyone in sight is exactly how we got into the mess we found ourselves in yesterday.

hocow

04-05-2007, 07:01 PM

bolding mine

Ok, I feel bad for the guy now. Malacandra is a he. He has posted this twice in the thread at other points, but maybe if I post it you guys might slow down and read it.

Oh my god. :smack: I just apologized for that before, too. I am so sorry. I can't get the female association out of my brain. :o So, so sorry.

JSexton

04-05-2007, 07:13 PM

I'm not denying that the Vig hurt us, but according to your logic we shouldn't lynch anyone at all. Having the Vig on a leash is like getting to lynch two people a day, and if we're incapable of telling the Vig who to kill, we're incapable of lynching someone ourselves.

Then again, based on our history, maybe we shouldn't be lynching anyone... :rolleyes:

--FCOD
Grargh! NO.

I made a very detailed post describing the differences bweten a vig kill and a lynch, and why I feel that a lynch is vastly superior. Information, chance for a claim, voting patterns, defenses, order of attack, etc. That post is what started this whole line of attack on me from zuma, which you are now piggybacking on.

Your post above is a blatant misrepresentation of what I'm saying.

Suburban Plankton

04-05-2007, 07:18 PM

All right, is there any way to quote a post that's quoting another post?
Yes, you just nest the QUOTE tags. But you have to code it manually. Like this:

[ QUOTE=storyteller0910]All right, is there any way to quote a post that's quoting another post?

[ QUOTE=pimaspinner
Jsexton came out with his list of scum which was mostly now confirmed townfolk. How is this not suspicious?
[/QUOTE]

[/QUOTE]

This would appear in your post as:

All right, is there any way to quote a post that's quoting another post?
Jsexton came out with his list of scum which was mostly now confirmed townfolk. How is this not suspicious?

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-05-2007, 07:44 PM

Grargh! NO.

I made a very detailed post describing the differences bweten a vig kill and a lynch, and why I feel that a lynch is vastly superior. Information, chance for a claim, voting patterns, defenses, order of attack, etc. That post is what started this whole line of attack on me from zuma, which you are now piggybacking on.

Your post above is a blatant misrepresentation of what I'm saying.How is voting to lynch someone any different from voting to have the Vig kill someone? The only difference that I can see is that only the former will end the day. Assuming, of course, that the Vig follows orders. We've already established that if he doesn't, he dies, so I don't think there's anything to worry about.

--FCOD

storyteller0910

04-05-2007, 08:42 PM

You don’t think Rysto has done anything slightly suspicious? This post got me suspicous of him. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8426034#post8426034) Talking about how the mafia won’t be working in concert, but will be wreaking havoc on our suspicions by voting and unvoting each other. Made me think scum, not town.

This vote for FCOD strikes me as scum voting scum to get things started. I also find it a bit odd that he is pointing out who he thinks is town rather than who he thinks is scum. I’m trying to narrow down who I think is against us.

You know, the more I think on this, the more it's bothering me. On the face of them, the two statements quoted above - which came from the same post - are directly contradictory. One the one hand, you suspect Rysto because he suggests that the Mafia wouldn't work in concert, that they'd vote for each other. You suspect him for saying this, which means you think it's bad or wrong analysis, right?

But then, in the next paragraph, you're accusing me of being Mafia voting for another Mafia. When Rysto makes this suggestion, it's a sign that he might be scum; when you make this suggestion, it's...?

So why the dissonance? I posit that you are Mafia yourself. You saw Rysto's post and reacted to it, because it is obviously to the benefit of you and your paisanos for us to think that you're voting in concert - that'll throw us off the trail.

I won't change my vote right now, because I still think FCoD should be carefully studied and I'm hoping my vote will make that happen, but I'd like to hear your response to this.

Hockey Monkey

04-05-2007, 08:49 PM

Lakai

04-05-2007, 10:28 PM

In my head it wasn't contradictory. I just felt that Rysto pointing it out was a little scummy. Not that it wasn't something the scum would do. And I think the scum are doing it. Maybe I didn't iterate that correctly the first time.
It sounds to me like you were just throwing around suspicion without giving it much thought. That sounds like scum.

Vote pimaspinner

Queuing

04-05-2007, 10:30 PM

Updated post list:

Blaster Master 154
zuma 125
Queuing 123
NAF1138 119
Gadarene 118
Fern Forest 67
MadTheSwine 59
FlyingCowOfDoom 57
Rysto 57
pimaspinner 54
Winston Smith 50
Autolycus 49
Malacandra 46
Pygmy Rugger 43
Kat 42
JSexton 42
storyteller0910 41
MonkeyMensch 40
glee 38
Lakai 38
Pleonast 38
chrisk 34
Suburban Plankton 34
Menocchio 32
Aguecheek 31
ArizonaTeach 30
brewha 28
nesta 27
kivvik 22
hocow 21
StarvingButStrong 19
CaerieD 18
Fretful Porpentine 17
sturmhauke 14
Smitty 13

While I agree with that the "Lynch all lurkers" strategy is not a very good one, does anyone have any read on smitty? How about Fretful Porcupine? Or Sturmhauke? Sturmhauke did post a helpful list of who voted for who, and a suspect (Pygmy Rugger) in post 1698 (FOS not list). Sturmhauke, along with JSexton, seems to have a lot of "rep" built up, based on last game. That does not apply at all here.

3 people are below someone who is dead. Someone who has been dead for a while. Yes, I know only 1 day and 1 night, but about a week in real time. I admit that the top posters are talking to damn much, but we need more info to go on.

We need info, the only way we get that is by people posting. At the very least, I think we could assume that these people are not cops as if they are they aren't leaving any crumbs. This does not mean I want to know who the cops are, I don't. They have had 3 nights of info. I hope that they stay alive 2 more days/nights and we can get their info dead or alive. If they don't say anything, or if what they say is buried in the noise of 1800 posts that isn't very effective either.

Also, Kat I would like to know if you have drawn any conclusions from this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8431127&postcount=1693)

Fern Forest your 3 posts in a row, about math, and the names of users, what was that about?

ArizonaTeach

04-05-2007, 10:36 PM

How do you know that? The only confirmed scum we have is nesta, who didn't post much at all.

I'm curious to know what brings you to this conclusion. :dubious: Seriously? You think the mafia have been straight forward with us and leading us to vote for them? I kinda figured that it's the only given and sane conclusion that we can draw from what's happened, that some of the people who encouraged voting for Enfant Terrible and Gadarene were mafia. Are you disputing that fact?

You're not helping the "don't lynch me" case that you really need to start building here by trying to distract and focus attention on what seems to me a pretty black and white statement, which for the benefit of the town was:The mafia has managed to successfully confuse the issue repeatedly as far as I'm concerned.Maybe I should ask, is there anyone else who disagrees with that statement except for JSexton?

ArizonaTeach

04-05-2007, 10:39 PM

And with that post, I tie aguecheek, and with this one, I tie Menocchio! Watch your back, Suburban Plankton*!
Unless you're counting useful posts, then I'm at like 5.
*Please realize that humorous statement was not meant to suggest I am actually going to do anything to Suburban Plankton.

Santo Rugger

04-05-2007, 10:48 PM

Queuing

04-05-2007, 10:54 PM

And with that post, I tie aguecheek, and with this one, I tie Menocchio! Watch your back, Suburban Plankton*!
Unless you're counting useful posts, then I'm at like 5.

Oh we are suppose to be counting useful posts?

New post list

Blaster Master 0
zuma 0
Queuing 0
NAF1138 119
ArizonaTeach 5.

I think that is correct now.

:D

Suburban Plankton

04-05-2007, 11:19 PM

And with that post, I tie aguecheek, and with this one, I tie Menocchio! Watch your back, Suburban Plankton*!

Aha! You threatened to stab me in the back! That's a scum tell, don't you know!

You've fallen for my secret plan; now I've got you just where I want you!

Yer goin' down!!!!!

And my place as only the thirteenth least frequent poster in the thread is safe for another...15 minutes or so, at least

Menocchio

04-05-2007, 11:20 PM

How is voting to lynch someone any different from voting to have the Vig kill someone? The only difference that I can see is that only the former will end the day. Assuming, of course, that the Vig follows orders. We've already established that if he doesn't, he dies, so I don't think there's anything to worry about.

--FCOD
Information and discussion time, but especially information. A kill following a lynch is firing blindly. Even with a conditional statement, it's still limited, since we don't know how the mafia follows up on it.

Also, it's in the town's interests to make the game last as long (in terms of game "days") as possible. Statistically speaking, more kills make the game shorter, which is to the scum's advantage. Also, BM may turn on us at a crucial juncture. Sure, we'll kill him ten next day, after the damage is done.

We can't just kill BM. He's still a townie. But he's also a liability. Tasking out the SK should be our first priority, but of course we should send him after mafia as well.

Menocchio

04-05-2007, 11:24 PM

Btw, I'm still suspicious about Chrisk. JSexton is playing the game exactly as he did in the previous game where he was town: agressive, confident, and often wrong.

But the question remains: is he really wrong, or just faking it? If JSexton was alone, I'd venture the former, but with chrisk's inheritance, he's at the top of my suspicion list right now.

Lakai

04-05-2007, 11:24 PM

Could day 1 have pasted without mafia voting for the lynched townie? I say we give Zuma and Pleonast the first choice from this list.

No one has questioned this logic so I will bring it up again along with evidence of very questionable behavior from pimaspinner a few posts up. The list I was talking about included pimaspinner.

There has been fewer post today, which leads me to conclude that a few of you, like myself, have figured out how little you know. All we know is that nesta was mafia, the other dead weren't, that pleonast and zuma are probably masons and that BM probably has a killing role. There is very little we can draw from this and it is a little upsetting.

The best way I think we can now root out mafia is by questioning suspicious behavior. Read through the thread, find someone saying something suspicious and have him answer to it. Hopefully we can question a mafia member who can't explain himself. Meaning that we have someone who wants to hide their intentions. Don't think that since no mafia members have been lynched by us that they won't slip up. In fact, it looks like pimaspinner has and can't answer for it.

Suburban Plankton

04-05-2007, 11:42 PM

There seems to be a trend going on here that I'm not entirely comfortable with. A good example is in this quote from Blaster Master, talking about JSexton:
I agree that he has some 'splainin' to do, but I'm not prepared to vote. In fact, I think he'd make a better night target for me than a lynching target precisely because I think there's a remote chance that he's the SK
My quarrel is not with the choice of targets, but rather than certain people would be better as "day" targets, and others better as "night" targets. I understand the arguments that have been made on this point, but I think they're a bunch of hogwash.

There are two kinds of players in this game: Town and Scum. Scum are"bad"; they should be eliminated wherever and whenever possible. Town are "good"; they should be protected. End of discussion. All of this "I think he might be a bad guy, but we shouldn't lynch him because it would be better off him to be taken out by someone overnight" stuff sounds like people are blowin' smoke, trying to confuse the issue. If you think someone is scum, have the guts to say so, and call for their head. If you don't want to put your own neck on the line, that's fine, but then keep your mouth shut. Asking the Vigilante (or even worse, the Serial Killer) to do your dirty work for you is a cop out. It is also extremely dangerous if you aren't 100% certain that you have properly identified all of the players.

I wholeheartedly agree with those who have pointed out that the Mafia were sitting back yesterday laughing at us as we dug ourselves deeper and deeper into a hole. I do; however, think that somewhere in there were a couple Mafia fanning the flames. And I think that a lot of this talk of contingency plans, and "Vigilante Kills vs. Town Kills", and all that are just more smoke, designed to confuse us (and to subtly guide us to pick the "appropriate" nighttime target).

I think that we should stop telling the Vigilante who we want him to target at night. Let's face it, we haven't done a very good job so far, and we still don't know for certain that our Vigilante is the Vigilante. Instead, let's let Master Blaster pick whatever target he wants. Then he can tell us who he plans to target, so that he is still held accountable, and the rest of us can get on with the business of lynching Mafia members like we are supposed to be doing.

MonkeyMensch

04-05-2007, 11:47 PM

MonkeyMensch:

He's already responded, going back through his posts, listing his voting history.

Here's a couple, however, that spring up, when you read it, re: nesta, hocow, chrisk, Autolycus:

#697So I'm FOSing in order chrisk, brewha (on his weak accusation of myself that Malacandra picked up on as well), and aguecheek for #393 where he accuses sturmhauke on nothing more than last game performance.
#704I don't want to bandwagon chrisk without a little more discussion so my vote should be brewha.
Although chrisk was at the top of his FOS list, he voted brewha.
I'm beginning to think that folks are just reading single posts after searching and not reading them in context. This was immediately following NAF's announcement that chrisk was being replaced. Remember that? Something else of interest, which I think might have been brought up before, but I can't remember when or by whom:
#246...I'm a noob and never read the parallel thread from last game.
#284:...I followed the first game seriously closely, and am a fairly sharp tack...
That in itself says nothing concrete, since he refers first to the forbidden thread, and secondly to the actual game thread, but it's still kinda hinky, y'ask me...snip
You're right there. It says nothing concrete because it's referring to the werewolf game. And I don't think there are any noobs in here anymore: anyone who went Day 2 of this game is a grizzled veteran.

JSexton

04-05-2007, 11:50 PM

:dubious: Seriously? You think the mafia have been straight forward with us and leading us to vote for them? I kinda figured that it's the only given and sane conclusion that we can draw from what's happened, that some of the people who encouraged voting for Enfant Terrible and Gadarene were mafia. Are you disputing that fact?
Have you forgotten the context? Originally, the conversation was about whether the scum were sitting back, posting only occasionally, and watching townies tear each other apart. You disagreed with that, saying that obviously the mafia were sowing discontent.

I'd like to know how you know that to be true, since, as I said, the only confirmed scum we have wasn't posting much.

You're not helping the "don't lynch me" case that you really need to start building here by trying to distract and focus attention on what seems to me a pretty black and white statement, which for the benefit of the town was:Maybe I should ask, is there anyone else who disagrees with that statement except for JSexton?
I'm not planning on building a "don't lynch me" case. I'm planning on finding scum.

Lakai

04-05-2007, 11:53 PM

I think that we should stop telling the Vigilante who we want him to target at night. Let's face it, we haven't done a very good job so far, and we still don't know for certain that our Vigilante is the Vigilante. Instead, let's let Master Blaster pick whatever target he wants. Then he can tell us who he plans to target, so that he is still held accountable, and the rest of us can get on with the business of lynching Mafia members like we are supposed to be doing.

The problem is BM has a bad track record and isn't trusted very much. What could you possibly gain from giving BM the sole choice in killings? Tell me how you are not scum trying to turn BM into a loose cannon? Or worst, BM is scum, and now you want the mafia to decide their own kill.

JSexton

04-05-2007, 11:54 PM

And I've clearly mixed up who I was talking to; the original post was from FlyingCow, not ArizonaTeach. However, Arizona seems to b advocating the same thing as Cow, so the question to him is equally valid.

Suburban Plankton

04-05-2007, 11:56 PM

OK, I'm going to quote the same statement again, because there's a question that didn't come to mind until after I had posted my last post:

I agree that he has some 'splainin' to do, but I'm not prepared to vote. In fact, I think he'd make a better night target for me than a lynching target precisely because I think there's a remote chance that he's the SK
Please explain to me how it would be better for the town to have the Serial Killer killed at night than to lynch him during the day. If we lynch him, then he is dead, and can't do any more damage. If we let him live past dusk, then he gets the opportunity for one more kill. And since he knows that we want him dead (because we've already voted on it) you can bet he's going to take out one more Citizen before he dies.

Suburban Plankton

04-06-2007, 12:12 AM

The problem is BM has a bad track record and isn't trusted very much. What could you possibly gain from giving BM the sole choice in killings? Tell me how you are not scum trying to turn BM into a loose cannon? Or worst, BM is scum, and now you want the mafia to decide their own kill.
The problem is that Blaster Master (I just can't bring myself to refer to him by his initials) is already deciding his own kills; he's just making it look like we are making the decision for him. Think about it. When Blaster Master made his claim, where was Winston Smith on everyone's radar? He was nowhere! There were at least half a dozen people with more suspicion on them, yet somehow Winsotn's name rose to the top. And, oops! He turned out to be town! Sorry folks!

We all have a bad track record right now. But if we keep picking targets for the Vigilante, and they keep coming up town, whose fault is it? Do we just suck at weeding out bad guys? Or is the Mafia influencing our choice? (Of course they are, the question is how successful they can continue to be). Or is Blaster Master influencing our choice so that he gets to kill whomever he wants? There's no accountability.

Let Blaster Master pick whatever target he wants. Make him announce it. Then hold him accountable for it. If he continues to kill Citizens, then we get rid of him. Even if he is the Vigilante, and he is firmly on the town's side, he is a liability if he keeps killing us.

As long as we tell him what to do, then he is not accountable for his own actions. He is the only person in town who has this luxury, and I don't like it.

Santo Rugger

04-06-2007, 12:12 AM

OK, I'm going to quote the same statement again, because there's a question that didn't come to mind until after I had posted my last post:

Please explain to me how it would be better for the town to have the Serial Killer killed at night than to lynch him during the day. If we lynch him, then he is dead, and can't do any more damage. If we let him live past dusk, then he gets the opportunity for one more kill. And since he knows that we want him dead (because we've already voted on it) you can bet he's going to take out one more Citizen before he dies.

Well, it would be better for Blaster Master, specifically, because it'd confirm him, and better for the town because we'd have one more confirmed citizen.

The chances that we'll get SK with a lynching/vig kill is 1/30 (well, closer to 1/25 or something like that), so I'm inclined to let BM aim for the SK, since there's only a 4% chance we'll be targeting the SK with a random kill. This is, IMO, a reasonable risk to incur in order to obtain another confirmed townie.

Suburban Plankton

04-06-2007, 12:30 AM

Well, it would be better for Blaster Master, specifically, because it'd confirm him, and better for the town because we'd have one more confirmed citizen.

The chances that we'll get SK with a lynching/vig kill is 1/30 (well, closer to 1/25 or something like that), so I'm inclined to let BM aim for the SK, since there's only a 4% chance we'll be targeting the SK with a random kill. This is, IMO, a reasonable risk to incur in order to obtain another confirmed townie.

The problem is that Blaster Master isn't aiming for anyone except who we tell him to. And regardless, he has exactly the same 4% chance we do. My point is that if we think we know who the SK is, we should lynch him at our earliest opportunity, not let him live just so that the Vigilante can kill him. Sure, it "gives" us one more confirmed Citizen, but it also loses one for us when the SK gets to kill for one more night.

Blaster Master is telling us that it's better for the Town if we let him kill the SK, rather than doing it ourselves. I disagree with him. It would hurt the town, because we would lose one more Citizen. We can't afford to lose any more people; we're already down 8 in just Two Days. This strikes me as just one more attempt from Blaster Master to tell us who to choose, instead of the other way around.

Fern Forest

04-06-2007, 12:43 AM

Fern Forest your 3 posts in a row, about math, and the names of users, what was that about?I was thinking in post about odds. Let me try an explain it better when I'm not tired and frustrated.

We have a set amount of scum randomly distributed through our group. Now take any smaller random group. The most likely scenario is that the ratio of scum in that group is similar to the ratio in the larger group. The random group I looked at dopers who played in both games. Take away the 4 confirmed or nearly confirmed townsfolk and the ratio of scum in the remaining players goes up. Now there is no guarantee that the ratio of scum among that group was originally higher but it is the most likely scenario.

If we started with 9 scum and 38 players then the ratio of scum among those players was 24%. And among the 11 players who played in the previous game, it's most likely that they had the same percentage of scum, which in this case would mean 2.6 scum. That's what we started with. Now we've removed 4 but from only one side. This leaves 7 remaining of that original group. And with those 2.6 scum in that group they now have a scum percentage of 38%. Now they can't have 2.6, they can only have integers like 2 or 3 which relate to 29% or 43%. Both percentages are higher then town ratio would now be.

For the town at large our ratio has gone from 9 of 38 (24%) to 8 of 21 (28%). This means that it is most likely that the ratio of scum in that small group has gone up faster then the ratio of scum in the whole town. But again this is only odds and is only the most likely scenario given an infinite number of possibilities. In this game we've only got one possibility and it could be anything. But if we are truely and completely ignorant (which may be the case) we might be better off examining this group. Or any other random group you could come up with.

But I believe we have better ways to approach today then that. Namely by what people are saying.

... anyone who went Day 2 of this game is a grizzled veteran.
I was there man. You'd read a post and WHAM! two more were right there waiting for you. And so you did what you had to do, read them and hit refresh and WHAM, how you got dozen staring you in the face. It was ... It ... I need a hug man.

Santo Rugger

04-06-2007, 12:52 AM

The problem is that Blaster Master isn't aiming for anyone except who we tell him to. And regardless, he has exactly the same 4% chance we do. My point is that if we think we know who the SK is, we should lynch him at our earliest opportunity, not let him live just so that the Vigilante can kill him. Sure, it "gives" us one more confirmed Citizen, but it also loses one for us when the SK gets to kill for one more night.

Blaster Master is telling us that it's better for the Town if we let him kill the SK, rather than doing it ourselves. I disagree with him. It would hurt the town, because we would lose one more Citizen. We can't afford to lose any more people; we're already down 8 in just Two Days. This strikes me as just one more attempt from Blaster Master to tell us who to choose, instead of the other way around.

I just don't see us "knowing" who the SK is with greater than 4% certainty today. Perhaps tomorrow, or the next day, with some more info to go by.

I agree that he should be accountable for his kills, and at this point, he's batting the same percentage we are (0%). JSexton might be right, in the near future, it may be better to lynch him, if he continues hurting the towns cause (regardless of who's directing them). It would be much better for the town if he gets the SK, because his killing spree would then stop, and we wouldn't have to take him out. Not having to lynch him makes up for losing the SKs target for that night. But again, the chances of him actually finding the SK tonight are pretty slim, so I don't know what the best course of action is at this point. Tomorrow might be a different story, but for tonight, I say we try and let him find the SK.

sturmhauke

04-06-2007, 01:24 AM

I'm not sure there's a great deal of information to be gleaned from a reread of this monstrous thread at this point. As long as it is, in the end yesterday was largely a whole lot of frothing at the mouth. Looking over the voting record doesn't seem to yield a great deal either; basically everyone voted for everyone else.

Now, I'm not saying it's a total loss. For instance, pimaspinner is now raising a feeble defense of his feeble attacks yesterday. Is he clueless or trying to be sneaky? Queuing has not entirely fallen from my list of suspects. His actions so far are similar to Gadarene's, so the question becomes, is he also an overzealous townie, or a Mafia agitator?

As for the question of directing Vig kills, I'm not convinced we should be giving Blaster Master orders (assuming he even is the real Vig). Right now we only have 1 dead Mafia and 7 townies, including one Mason and the Detective. The Mafia will want to get Blaster Master to kill a townie, and with their numbers right now they have a fair chance at influencing things to be in their favor. In the worst case scenario (Vig, SK, and Mafia all kill townies and not each other, only townies get lynched), the town loses on either Day 6 or 7*. Today is Day 3. With the way everyone is misjudging everyone else, the Vig might have a better shot of hitting a scum at random than by following orders.

*I agree with JSexton's earlier assessment that 10 Mafia would break the game. Since 10 votes originally ended the day immediately, a 10-member Mafia's best strategy would have been to immediately pile on someone every day. This would not stop until either the Vig or SK killed a Mafia. Now, it is possible that neither NAF nor any Mafia player realized this until after the 12 hour countdown was instituted. In that case, the maximum number of living Mafia is 9, and the town loses on Worst-case Day 6, when there will be 18 players (Mafia win if they number half or more). If the maximum number of Mafia is "only" 8, then the town is not outnumbered until the following day.

Lakai

04-06-2007, 01:58 AM

The problem is that Blaster Master (I just can't bring myself to refer to him by his initials) is already deciding his own kills; he's just making it look like we are making the decision for him. Think about it. When Blaster Master made his claim, where was Winston Smith on everyone's radar? He was nowhere! There were at least half a dozen people with more suspicion on them, yet somehow Winsotn's name rose to the top. And, oops! He turned out to be town! Sorry folks!

We all have a bad track record right now. But if we keep picking targets for the Vigilante, and they keep coming up town, whose fault is it? Do we just suck at weeding out bad guys? Or is the Mafia influencing our choice? (Of course they are, the question is how successful they can continue to be). Or is Blaster Master influencing our choice so that he gets to kill whomever he wants? There's no accountability.

Let Blaster Master pick whatever target he wants. Make him announce it. Then hold him accountable for it. If he continues to kill Citizens, then we get rid of him. Even if he is the Vigilante, and he is firmly on the town's side, he is a liability if he keeps killing us.

As long as we tell him what to do, then he is not accountable for his own actions. He is the only person in town who has this luxury, and I don't like it.

Why should Blaster Master be held accountable for his kill? Why not hold you accountable for your vote? I think the first two days have proved that anyone could easily vote for a citizen. Why should Blaster Master be killed if he makes another mistake?

We can't let Blaster Master choose on his own because we still don't know if he is mafia or not. Until I see Blaster Master kill scum, I will be against him deciding his own victim.

Tell me again how your argument doesn't favor the mafia and helps the town?

Malacandra

04-06-2007, 02:03 AM

What would you like me to respond to? If it will help clear me in your mind, by all means ask and ye shall receive. The first 2 days were incredibly long, and I've been putting in rough hours at work so I wasn't able to do a whole lot in a timely fashion. Not the case for a little while, I'll be able to keep up.

The first day I admit I was all for jumping on the Enfant bandwagon. He pinged my FOS for reasons I don't recall but are a moot point now anyway. I have already explained my suspicion of BM. However I have also played with the idea that he is the VIG, not the SK as I had originally expected. I'm not completely convinced as of this post, but I acknowledge the possibility that when I fingered him out for a kill role, my paranoia took over and automatically assumed scum killer.

Actually my main suspicion lies with Malacandra as she claims she cannot defend her accusations because it will cause Very Bad Things to happen to the town. I'm hiding nothing so I don't see what she can possibly have to reveal. :dubious:

nevermind

Autolycus

04-06-2007, 02:14 AM

So, after's all the violence yesterday, is we any better off? Fuck this shit man.

kivvik

04-06-2007, 02:29 AM

So, after's all the violence yesterday, is we any better off? Fuck this shit man.

Well, one of the enemy is down. That's about 1000% better than usual.

As for BM, we should still vote his target, at least until he's proven himself by killing scum. As for lynching the SK should we find them, I'd rather let BM take them out. Confirmation of BM, and hell, the SK killed the only scum to have died so far. Maybe they'll take out another before they get the axe. Or knife. Or whatever the VIG's weapon of choice is.

brewha

04-06-2007, 07:36 AM

I was thinking in post about odds. Let me try an explain it better when I'm not tired and frustrated.

<most of post snipped out for brevity>

I was there man. You'd read a post and WHAM! two more were right there waiting for you. And so you did what you had to do, read them and hit refresh and WHAM, how you got dozen staring you in the face. It was ... It ... I need a hug man.

This post got me thinking. Apparently Queuing is thinking the same.

What is the point of this post? What was the point of the other posts with odds or players and what letter of the alphabet their names start with. Between that and the fact the FF voted for me, I searched the thread. I found lots of posts by Fern Forest but no content.

I found two votes to lynch. One was for Strum becuase of who he was "drinking" with the night before. The other, for Pleonast I believe, was explained by just wanting to have a 3 way tie for 4 votes a piece.

The reason for the no content and no reasoning for votes? Fern Forest already knows who all the Mafia are.

Lynch Fern Forest

zuma

04-06-2007, 07:52 AM

Unvote: JSexton

I can understand his arguments regarding the SK/Vig. I'm not sure I agree completely, but it's probably moot as the vig has to kill anyway... I just wanted to put him out there as a topic of discussion because of chrisk's actions early in the game.

In the meantime I'll be taking a look at some of the people lying low and not posting a lot. I'll agree with Queuing in that he and I and a few other people need to shut up for a while, and let others start defending themselves.

zuma

04-06-2007, 07:55 AM

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-06-2007, 08:03 AM

Information and discussion time, but especially information. A kill following a lynch is firing blindly. Even with a conditional statement, it's still limited, since we don't know how the mafia follows up on it.

Also, it's in the town's interests to make the game last as long (in terms of game "days") as possible. Statistically speaking, more kills make the game shorter, which is to the scum's advantage. Also, BM may turn on us at a crucial juncture. Sure, we'll kill him ten next day, after the damage is done.

We can't just kill BM. He's still a townie. But he's also a liability. Tasking out the SK should be our first priority, but of course we should send him after mafia as well.OK, I can see your point here. I still think he can be a valuable asset for now. That is, we should be trying to figure out who the SK is now so we can dispatch him in a few days. When the game gets closer to the end the Vig becomes more of a liability. Although I understand a little more what his point is, my suspicion for JSexton remains.

zuma I think you should handle the Blaster Master kills. Having a Mason pick the extra person to kill increases our advantage because there are probably two or three masons still out there. This way they won't get outed unnecessarily if the town starts voting for BM to kill one.

Out of curiosity, why do you always use MB instead of BM?

--FCOD

--FCOD

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-06-2007, 08:04 AM

Argh, double sig lines. I'll be good and follow the rules about no editing...

--FCOD

zuma

04-06-2007, 08:11 AM

zuma I think you should handle the Blaster Master kills. Having a Mason pick the extra person to kill increases our advantage because there are probably two or three masons still out there. This way they won't get outed unnecessarily if the town starts voting for BM to kill one.

Out of curiosity, why do you always use MB instead of BM?

--FCOD

--FCOD

I've screwed up everyone's name here, pretty much!

I'll just go with the town concensus and be around for the mad last-minute voting and such. I just want to avoid any more BM running the show.

ArizonaTeach

04-06-2007, 09:35 AM

Have you forgotten the context? Originally, the conversation was about whether the scum were sitting back, posting only occasionally, and watching townies tear each other apart. You disagreed with that, saying that obviously the mafia were sowing discontent. What? Context? How could there be context when I wasn't actually responding to anything? I said that the mafia has been successful in creating white noise. Do you disagree with that? You avoided that part of my post, I noticed. Since, by my calculations (and let me go back and check here...hmmm...yes) we have lynched two villagers, it seems to me that the mafia is confusing the issue.
And this, incidentally, was exactly what I was talking about when I said that every post would be examined ad infinitum, which, when 30 people are doing could only help the mafia.
Looking forward, I see you might have been confused in the posting, which kinda proves the point.
Anyway, FTR, I don't think that you're scum...at the moment! I reserve the right to be absolutely positively wrong like I have been so far.

StarvingButStrong

04-06-2007, 09:38 AM

We all have a bad track record right now. But if we keep picking targets for the Vigilante, and they keep coming up town, whose fault is it? Do we just suck at weeding out bad guys? Or is the Mafia influencing our choice? (Of course they are, the question is how successful they can continue to be). Or is Blaster Master influencing our choice so that he gets to kill whomever he wants? There's no accountability.

Let Blaster Master pick whatever target he wants. Make him announce it. Then hold him accountable for it. If he continues to kill Citizens, then we get rid of him. Even if he is the Vigilante, and he is firmly on the town's side, he is a liability if he keeps killing us.

As long as we tell him what to do, then he is not accountable for his own actions. He is the only person in town who has this luxury, and I don't like it.

Ding! Ding! Ding!

That's my Scum Detector going off.

This plan translates to: a) let BM pick his own targets and b) lych him the moment he picks a target wrong.

This helps the town how, exactly? We lose the townie BM kills and then we lose the services of our 'tool' AND if it turns out BM is indeed SK and not Vig, we also lose the services of the Vig.

AND, let me point out, that if we were to kill everyone who voted for a town kill by mistake....well, this game would be over, yes?

And the upside of this ridiculous plan? Why, BM is "accountable" for his choice. Oh, hoo rah. Wasn't the entire point of the deal that we let BM live IN ORDER TO be able to call the shots on who he kills??

And Suburban Plankton proposes we give up our control, in exchange for nothing more killing BM the first time he guesses wrong? Hell, why not kill BM right off? Save ourself the townie that would be his 'mistake.'

Does ANYBODY gain by this plan? Why, yes. The MAFIA, since the number of scum potentially killed each cycle goes from 3 to 1.

VOTE SUBURBAN PLANKTON.

Fretful Porpentine

04-06-2007, 09:44 AM

As for the question of directing Vig kills, I'm not convinced we should be giving Blaster Master orders (assuming he even is the real Vig). Right now we only have 1 dead Mafia and 7 townies, including one Mason and the Detective. The Mafia will want to get Blaster Master to kill a townie, and with their numbers right now they have a fair chance at influencing things to be in their favor.
But if the town votes, we get to SEE the decision-making process, and the Mafia can only run this strategy so long before it becomes apparent who is directing the votes toward townies. If Blaster Master picks his own victims, we don't learn anything about how that decision was made except what he chooses to tell us. If we're agreed that all information about who voted for whom and why is valuable, the town should continue to vote on the vig kill.

StarvingButStrong

04-06-2007, 09:48 AM

I was so struck by the scumminess of Suburban Plankton's post that I had to reply right away. I see now that Lakai make the same points before I did -- sorry for the duplication and stepping on your toes.

(If it makes you feel any better, you've just moved onto my 'probably trustworthy' list.)

Aguecheek

04-06-2007, 10:05 AM

Although chrisk was at the top of his FOS list, he voted brewha.I'm beginning to think that folks are just reading single posts after searching and not reading them in context. This was immediately following NAF's announcement that chrisk was being replaced. Remember that?Yeah, I do remember it. He said it on post #739...35 posts after you said that. Wanna talk about context, I'd say you should try backchecking yourself first.

That in itself says nothing concrete, since he refers first to the forbidden thread, and secondly to the actual game thread, but it's still kinda hinky, y'ask me...You're right there. It says nothing concrete because it's referring to the werewolf game. And I don't think there are any noobs in here anymore: anyone who went Day 2 of this game is a grizzled veteran.Yeah, it was referring to the werewolf thread, but it also referred to the forbidden werewolf thread wherein chrisk first came upon, and shot down, the plan he himself proposed not much later on. I only found it strange that you'd claimed to have followed the first game incredibly closely, but hadn't read the companion thread. I followed the game pretty casually and still read the forbidden thread. Denying that you'd read that thread could give you plausible deniability that you'd heard of chrisk's plan, should it not turn out as well as he'd hoped. Because you [i]had heard of it...when he brought up the idea in the mafia thread. [End Inference]

Vote MonkeyMensch

JSexton

04-06-2007, 10:14 AM

I disagree 100% with Suburban Plankton's assessment of how to handle Blaster. Treating it like a second lynch (with votes, IOW) is the only way to minimize the inherent problems with a vig.

I do agree to let a Mason suggest targets, although that can wait until we're nearly ready to lynch someone. Either Zuma or Pleonast is fine with me. And I'm fine with having a single target for Blaster, or a pair of conditional targets based on the alignment of the lynchee. I think having both options open could be useful.

JSexton

04-06-2007, 10:17 AM

Blaster Master

04-06-2007, 10:17 AM

Why should Blaster Master be held accountable for his kill? Why not hold you accountable for your vote? I think the first two days have proved that anyone could easily vote for a citizen. Why should Blaster Master be killed if he makes another mistake?

We can't let Blaster Master choose on his own because we still don't know if he is mafia or not. Until I see Blaster Master kill scum, I will be against him deciding his own victim.

Tell me again how your argument doesn't favor the mafia and helps the town?

I agree. That post from Suburban Plankton is one of the most suspicious things I've seen in the entire thread and then Pygmy Rugger endorsing it. I would like to congratulate both of them for putting themselves at the top of my suspicion list.

NAF1138

04-06-2007, 10:18 AM

Pleonast

04-06-2007, 10:24 AM

Hmm, I don't have a lot to add.

I am still suspicious of Aguecheek because of the spurious reasoning against sturmhauke, way back on day one.

I agree with the reasoning against pimaspinner by storyteller0910 in post 1787.

StarvingButStrong makes a good case against Suburban Plankton (as does Fretful Porpentine in the next post).

Those are my top suspicions. No vote from me yet.

By the way, I think it's obvious but want to state it explicitly anyway: Masons, we must not disclose how many of us there are until we've all been revealed and there is only one of us left. We need to keep the Mafia guessing how much we know. And prevent a Mafia from claiming Mason after we're all dead.

Fretful Porpentine

04-06-2007, 10:25 AM

A recap of the discussion and voting on the Vig kill on Day 2, because I feel it may be useful:

Blaster Master claims to be the Vig at post #1085 and suggests that the town should tell him whom to kill. He proposes a list of names of people he thinks are scum, in decreasing order of certainty: Gadarene, Queuing, Winston Smith, Aguecheek, brewha, ArizonaTeach, Pleonast, hocow, and Pygmy Rugger.

Rysto (1086) suggests that the town should vote every day on a Vig kill as well as a lynch. pimaspinner questions this proposal.

nesta (1166) posts an analysis of how this plan plays out (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8423147&postcount=1166) if BM is the Vig, SK, Mafia, or town and proposes that the town should follow through on Rysto's suggestion for now.

Queuing (1203) says that if he hangs, BM should take out someone from the "other side", namely Pleonast or zuma. If it turns out they're all town, they should go back to Rysto's suggestion and lynch JSexton.

zuma proposes lynching Queuing and Vig-killing JSexton.

Gadarene agrees with Queuing -- the town should kill Queuing or Gadarene, and then someon from the other "bloc," zuma, storyteller, glee, or Pleonast.

Queuing (1239) proposes that we vote in dark orange for the Vig kill, and immediately votes zuma.

Pleonast makes his Mason claim.

Pygmy Rugger, Gadarene, and Malacandra vote to assassinate zuma.

Pleonast votes to assassinate Gadarene.

StarvingButStrong proposes a conditional: town lynches Queuing or Gadarene, BM kills the other if the lynched person was Mafia; if town, BM kills Pleonast. Gadarene wants to emend this to "Pleonast or zuma," but otherwise agrees to go along with it. Pygmy Rugger votes for this plan. nesta likes the plan but thinks zuma would be a better target than Pleonast (does not cast a dark orange vote). Gadarene votes yes for the plan.

WinstonSmith votes to assassinate MadTheSwine.

MonkeyMensch votes to assassinate Gadarene if Queuing is scum and zuma if he's not.

ArizonaTeach votes to assassinate zuma.

storyteller0109 and FlyingCowofDoom vote to assassinate Gadarene if Queuing is scum and zuma if not.

pimaspinner votes to assassinate zuma. There is a great deal of argument about whether there should be conditionals or not; see p. 28 for the gory details.

zuma claims Mason. Pleonast confirms the claim.

JSexton says that a good place to look for an alternative target for BM would be among those calling for zuma's head.

[More to come...]

MadTheSwine

04-06-2007, 10:33 AM

Santo Rugger

04-06-2007, 10:34 AM

I agree. That post from Suburban Plankton is one of the most suspicious things I've seen in the entire thread and then Pygmy Rugger endorsing it. I would like to congratulate both of them for putting themselves at the top of my suspicion list.

I've reread the exchange three times, and I don't see how you infer that I was endorsing his plan. In fact, I was pointing out several flaws.

Malacandra

04-06-2007, 10:44 AM

1817 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435445&postcount=1817)

MALACANDRA!

First and last warning to the whole group. Use the edit feature, you will get mod killed.

This was one. Next time ANYONE uses the edit feature they are out.

and after I posted a gender correction for you and everything. I am dissapointed.

How's "Because I was irritated enough to post a reply before I saw you'd stepped in, and then figured it was inappropriate after I'd seen your reply?" as an excuse? You must be short on things to be disappointed about, dude.

Huh boy. Better toe the line, 'cos we're losing enough town by our own efforts, the scum and even the vig. :rolleyes:

hocow

04-06-2007, 10:51 AM

Yeah, I do remember it. He said it on post #739...35 posts after you said that. Wanna talk about context, I'd say you should try backchecking yourself first.

Good catch, Aguecheek!

I will now request that MonkeyMensch explain himself.

Does ANYBODY gain by this plan? Why, yes. The MAFIA, since the number of scum potentially killed each cycle goes from 3 to 1.

Couldn't the same be said of townies, though?

Reading down the thread as I type this, I see that MadTheSwine is trying to detract attention from Suburban Plankton's accusation, and place it on sturmhawke. That seems a bit scummy to me.

hocow

04-06-2007, 10:56 AM

Let me add that Aguecheek is on my trust list now as s/he (covering my bases w/ sex) made the effort to look up the inconsistencies in Monkey's posts. If they were both scum, I believe they would have went on the assumption that few people would be arsed to check that far back in the thread. And, pending some superb explanation of the inconsistency, Monkey is the scummy one in my book now.

Malacandra

04-06-2007, 11:05 AM

Oy vey. I suck at this game. I'm fine with arguing game theory and probabilities, but this he-said she-said business does my head in. Time to man up and say:

un-hit hocow

'cos I am a lot less certain than I was about what looked like a shout-out many, many pages back.

(Is green the appropriate colour to countermand orange? I don't know that we've discussed it.)

Fretful Porpentine

04-06-2007, 11:09 AM

Recap, part 2. I think taking a close look at the Winston Smith bandwagon would be profitable. My own comments are bolded and in brackets; everything else is factual recap, and I'd welcome any corrections.

Pleonast says town should lynch Queuing and assassinate Gadarene, but says this is not a vote.

Winston Smith accuses Blaster Master of being Mafia (1413).

BM proposes a new conditional plan: lynch Gadarene; target Queuing if he's scum, JSexton if not.

BM then suggests that the Serial Killer should hit Winston Smith because he believes he's scum.

glee proposes another set of conditionals: lynch Queuing, kill Gadarene if scum, Autolycus if not. Blaster Master does not want to kill Autolycus because he says it won't give any information. glee asks BM to propose his own alternative target. BM says, at 1446:
That's why I propose we lynch Gadarene instead. There's zero doubt in my mind that he's mafia, and since I'm less convinced of Queuing's scumminess than of Winston Smith's, I'd rather kill him tonight, and we can decide on Queuing's fate tomorrow. Then, since so fewer express doubt in Gadarene's innocence, I can target an alternate target that would still gain us information, like JSexton, or I can target a SK candidate like hocow, or Autolycus (or any other suggestions).

Bottom line, I'll give my suggestions, but I don't want to act without the town's blessings because I don't want any post hoc reasoning going on.
BM then proposes (1449)
Lynch Gadarene, if he's scum, target Queuing/Winston Smith, if he's not, target JSexton/Autolycus.

Then since there is some slight doubt about Queuing, I'd rather leave him off at this point, and make him suspect number one tomorrow. Or, even let him be investigated by a beat cop. Speaking of which, if a beat cop wants to investigate me to vindicate me in the event that the SK claims, please do so.

[Editorial comment: It seems to me that BM is playing an absolutely brilliant Richard III to glee's Buckingham.]

Winston Smith retorts that BM doesn't get to propose plans; he should do as he's told.

Queuing asks the two masons to direct BM's kill, suggesting Aguecheek or JSexton.

kivvik suggests Winston Smith as BM's target (not a vote); does not support making Autolycus a target.

BM reiterates his recommendation from post 1449.

Menoccio votes for lynching Gadarene, killing Queuing if scum, Winston Smith if not.

JSexton suggests Winston as a single target (not a vote).

Rysto and JSexton vote to lynch Gadarene and assassinate Winston Smith.

Queuing votes to assassinate Aguecheek if Gadarene is town and Queuing if he's scum.

nesta votes for Queuing if Gadarene is scum and WinstonSmith if Gadarene is town.

Blaster Master asks people to vote between the following two plans:
Plan 1: No matter how Gadarene turns out, kill Winston Smith.
Plan 2: If Gadarene is scum, kill Queuing, if he's townie, kill Winston Smith.
[Further editorial comment: nesta, of course, knows perfectly well that Gadarene is town, and the "conditional" vote will result in the death of WS, who is also town. I suspect that BM knows this, too, and is aware that both plans will have the same result. Note that very few people have actually voted to assassinate WS at this point -- nesta and Menoccio conditionally, Rysto and JSexton absolutely. But BM presents this as if it were a done deal.]

All of the voting that goes on after this is for Plan 1 vs. plan 2 -- no alternative targets for the Vig are proposed. The voting is on pp. 31-32 for those who want to study the details; the final count is as follows:

Plan 1: Rysto, JSexton, Blaster Master, storyteller0910, Pleonast, StarvingButStrong, Fretful Porpentine, Lakai, pimaspinner

Plan 2: nesta, glee, Queuing(?), Menocchio, Autolycus, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, MadTheSwine, Fern Forest, kivvik.

[My conclusion: The townies, myself included, have been royally played by BlasterMaster, with a few nudges along the way from glee, kivvik, JSexton, Rysto, and nesta. I submit that BM, like nesta, is Mafia, that the Mafia killed Winston Smith during the night and the real Vigilante tried to kill him during the night and was blocked by the Doctor, and that some of glee, kivvik, JSexton, and Rysto are BM's co-conspirators, though it's definitely possible that some are innocent. I think the Mafia would split their votes between plans 1 and 2 -- after all, they know the actual outcome of the plans would be identical -- and, indeed, we have a three and three split among the six people I suspect.]

Fretful Porpentine

04-06-2007, 11:16 AM

Oh, and I propose that we should either lynch JSexton and order BlasterMaster to kill glee or kivvik if JSexton turns out to be scum. I'm not so sure about Rysto, who may simply have guessed wrong.

storyteller0910

04-06-2007, 11:22 AM

Oh, and I propose that we should either lynch JSexton and order BlasterMaster to kill glee or kivvik if JSexton turns out to be scum. I'm not so sure about Rysto, who may simply have guessed wrong.

I'm a little confused - your analysis was long, and I may have missed something somewhere - but it seems like your entire scenario hinges on Blaster Master being Mafia. If he is not, then none of the rest of what you say is relevant. And yet your choice to lynch is JSexton? This does not compute.

NAF1138

04-06-2007, 11:24 AM

since we have a few new votes:

3- JSexton - (FCoD, Suburban Plankton, Fretful Porpentine)
3- pimaspinner - (Lakai, Pygmy Rugger)
2- Suburban Plankton - (StarvingButStrong, JSexton)
1- Fern Forest - (brewha)
1- Flying Cow of Doom - (Storyteller0910)
1- MonkeyMensch - (Aguecheek)
1- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS)

MadTheSwine

04-06-2007, 11:26 AM

Good catch, Aguecheek
Reading down the thread as I type this, I see that MadTheSwine is trying to detract attention from Suburban Plankton's accusation, and place it on sturmhawke. That seems a bit scummy to me.

Not trying to detract any attention from Sub Plank,in fact,I pointed out the same thing as Jsexton did about Plank way back in post #306. I just wanted to point out that sturmhauke along with Plankton seem to have changed posting styles from last game.

Post #303 has nesta being told by random.org to vote for hocow or Monkey,doesn't do either one.Odd.

Monkey's claim of never having read the forbidden thread yet followed the werewolf game closely seems very strange,since he is sharp as a tack,I think he would have thought to look at the parallel thread.

I am gonna Unvote Pygmy Rugger

Vote MonkeyMensch

MonkeyMensch

04-06-2007, 11:27 AM

Yeah, I do remember it. He said it on post #739...35 posts after you said that. Wanna talk about context, I'd say you should try backchecking yourself first.

Yeah, it was referring to the werewolf thread, but it also referred to the forbidden werewolf thread wherein chrisk first came upon, and shot down, the plan he himself proposed not much later on. I only found it strange that you'd claimed to have followed the first game incredibly closely, but hadn't read the companion thread. I followed the game pretty casually and still read the forbidden thread. Denying that you'd read that thread could give you plausible deniability that you'd heard of chrisk's plan, should it not turn out as well as he'd hoped. Because you [i]had heard of it...when he brought up the idea in the mafia thread. [End Inference]

Vote MonkeyMensch
I am so ashamed. I'm ... wrong, Sir Andrew.

::Holds shriveled carrot in the air::

"As God is my witness I'll never mis-quote again!" Or post after my bedtime.

It's a fair cop. No, no, not cop! A fair vote!

JSexton

04-06-2007, 11:34 AM

I'm a little confused - your analysis was long, and I may have missed something somewhere - but it seems like your entire scenario hinges on Blaster Master being Mafia. If he is not, then none of the rest of what you say is relevant. And yet your choice to lynch is JSexton? This does not compute.
No, it makes perfect sense, if you believe his/her reasoning. By instructing BM to kill "one of his own", you force his hand.

If he kills glee and glee turns up scum, great! Dead scum
If he kills glee and glee turns up town, well, we're not any worse off than we have been.
If he fails to kill glee, then BM gets lynched, and probably glee gets lynched the following day. And presumably they're co-scum for this scenario.

And as I have not claimed a killing role to test, you lunch me in the meantime.

It's a good plan...if you think Aguecheek's reasoning is sound. I don't, naturally. I still think Rysto is solidly town. I never thought Blaster was mafia, but he could still be the SK. Unlikely, as in that case the vig clearly killed nesta instead of targeting BLaster. I have no real read on kivvik. glee could well be scum, though.

MonkeyMensch

04-06-2007, 11:35 AM

As for a real explanation I saw Lakai's post above mine and thought that's when the unvoting of chrisk was happening. That's all I got.

JSexton

04-06-2007, 11:36 AM

The same can be said for sturmhauke can't it?
Yes, it can. I've had sturm in my townie column, but that's largely because I thought the early wagon on him was mafia-driven.

I may need to revisit that theory...

storyteller0910

04-06-2007, 11:38 AM

No, it makes perfect sense, if you believe his/her reasoning. By instructing BM to kill "one of his own", you force his hand.

If he kills glee and glee turns up scum, great! Dead scum
If he kills glee and glee turns up town, well, we're not any worse off than we have been.
If he fails to kill glee, then BM gets lynched, and probably glee gets lynched the following day. And presumably they're co-scum for this scenario.

And as I have not claimed a killing role to test, you lunch me in the meantime.

It's a good plan...if you think Aguecheek's reasoning is sound. I don't, naturally. I still think Rysto is solidly town. I never thought Blaster was mafia, but he could still be the SK. Unlikely, as in that case the vig clearly killed nesta instead of targeting BLaster. I have no real read on kivvik. glee could well be scum, though.

OK, I guess that's a point. My objection is withdrawn. I don't buy the reasoning, but I understand it now.

Fretful Porpentine

04-06-2007, 11:41 AM

I'm a little confused - your analysis was long, and I may have missed something somewhere - but it seems like your entire scenario hinges on Blaster Master being Mafia. If he is not, then none of the rest of what you say is relevant. And yet your choice to lynch is JSexton? This does not compute.
My entire scenario hinges on Blaster Master being Mafia, which means he's hand in glove with the rest of the Mafia. I'm fairly confident that JSexton, glee, and kivvik are among his fellow Mafia members. However, I am willing to accept the possibility that I'm wrong and BlasterMaster really is the Vig; therefore, I think lynching him outright has the potential to be disastrous. Therefore, I am suggesting that we should proceed with caution: first, test the accuracy of my theory by lynching one of the people whom I think is likely to be Mafia, then (if it seems likely that I'm right) cornering Blaster Master by ordering him to assassinate one of his fellow Mafia members. If he doesn't follow orders, then we lynch him.

I picked JSexton for my lynch vote because I think he's a likely lynch target in any case, but I'm equally happy to vote for one of the others.

And my analysis was short -- it's the recap that was long :) Only the material in bold has any pretensions to being analysis.

Fretful Porpentine

04-06-2007, 11:47 AM

Although, actually, on looking over the recap again, I'd like to emend my proposal, because I'm less sure about JSexton than I was -- I'd missed the fact that Blaster Master proposed to kill JSexton if Gadarene turned out to be TOWN, which would be a hell of a bold move if JSexton were a co-conspirator.

Unvote JSexton.

Vote kivvik.

Assassinate glee if kivvik is scum.

Or vice versa.

NAF1138

04-06-2007, 11:51 AM

MadTheSwine

04-06-2007, 11:55 AM

Not trying to detract any attention from Sub Plank,in fact,I pointed out the same thing as Jsexton did about Plank way back in post #306. I just wanted to point out that sturmhauke along with Plankton seem to have changed posting styles from last game.

Post #303 has nesta being told by random.org to vote for hocow or Monkey,doesn't do either one.Odd.

Monkey's claim of never having read the forbidden thread yet followed the werewolf game closely seems very strange,since he is sharp as a tack,I think he would have thought to look at the parallel thread.

I am gonna Unvote Pygmy Rugger

Vote MonkeyMensch

Shoot,I just looked at the parallel thread,and Monkey did not post in it....dunno why I didn't think to check that first.I still have doubts ,but not enough Unvote MonkeyMensch

sturmhauke

04-06-2007, 12:10 PM

Yes, it can. I've had sturm in my townie column, but that's largely because I thought the early wagon on him was mafia-driven.

I may need to revisit that theory...
You think I might be scum because of a strategy disagreement? The simple truth is that this is the first game I've played that used a Vig, and I don't know all the intricacies.

While we're on the topic of posting styles, it seems to me that you have much less concrete reasoning this time around. For example, I believe in your initial analysis post you said you thought I was town "for minor reasons," and gave similar one-line thoughts on everyone else. I was expecting a bunch of deep analysis from the vaunted JSexton, but so far I haven't seen it.

hocow

04-06-2007, 12:26 PM

I am so ashamed. I'm ... wrong, Sir Andrew.

::Holds shriveled carrot in the air::

"As God is my witness I'll never mis-quote again!" Or post after my bedtime.

It's a fair cop. No, no, not cop! A fair vote!

I'm going to go ahead and vote MonkeyMensch.

This post looks like a surrender. And his explanation a few posts down doesn't sit right with me, either.

MonkeyMensch

04-06-2007, 12:33 PM

I'm going to go ahead and vote MonkeyMensch.

This post looks like a surrender. And his explanation a few posts down doesn't sit right with me, either.
That's no surrender, it's an admission of a screw up. Silly.

JSexton

04-06-2007, 01:04 PM

You think I might be scum because of a strategy disagreement?
No, I didn't say that at all. You've posted much less analysis than the last game. Of course, the lack of a cop role (presumably) may account for that. But it's worth looking at your posts again with a fresh eye.

While we're on the topic of posting styles, it seems to me that you have much less concrete reasoning this time around. For example, I believe in your initial analysis post you said you thought I was town "for minor reasons," and gave similar one-line thoughts on everyone else.

That's not true at all. All of the people I called as scum got a full paragraphs with links.

I was expecting a bunch of deep analysis from the vaunted JSexton, but so far I haven't seen it.
"Vaunted"? Have I claimed to be a great master at this game? I'm experienced, yes. But on the sites I usually play at, I'm generally regarded to be better than average, but only by a bit. My overall record of wins is hovering around 40%. (Granted, I started with an atrocious 0-7 record that I've been working to improve, but still)

Also, the main reason I didn't sign up for the initial game is that my wife had a baby 3 weeks ago. As a result, I don't have nearly as much time as usual to devote to analysis. I'm doing nearly all my posting from work. (Hi boss! :waves:)

Blaster Master

04-06-2007, 01:07 PM

I've reread the exchange three times, and I don't see how you infer that I was endorsing his plan. In fact, I was pointing out several flaws.
My apologies Pygmy Rugger. I misread your post 1811 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435253&postcount=1811) as a reply to post 1810 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435253&postcount=1810) rather than as to post 1809 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435253&postcount=1809). I guess that's what I get for not re-reading the quoted text. Thanks for correcting me.

kivvik

04-06-2007, 01:21 PM

Fretful Porpentine
[My conclusion: The townies, myself included, have been royally played by BlasterMaster, with a few nudges along the way from glee, kivvik, JSexton, Rysto, and nesta. I submit that BM, like nesta, is Mafia, that the Mafia killed Winston Smith during the night and the real Vigilante tried to kill him during the night and was blocked by the Doctor, and that some of glee, kivvik, JSexton, and Rysto are BM's co-conspirators, though it's definitely possible that some are innocent. I think the Mafia would split their votes between plans 1 and 2 -- after all, they know the actual outcome of the plans would be identical -- and, indeed, we have a three and three split among the six people I suspect.]

I suspected Winston Smith because he never addressed my question to him Here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8425289&postcount=1407)
Instead he continued ranting against Blast Master and being aggressive. He had also been very much about getting the day over with NOW. Also, he did not go with the rest of the town in the planning, which I can understand if he truly believed differently, but he never really gave a reason why, just called a bunch of people scum and got all dramatic. OldPlanGoodness (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8425366&postcount=1425) StillWithTheOld (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8425531&postcount=1453)
Bloodthirst (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8424729&postcount=1316)
He had gone from fairly quiet earlier in the game, to posting like a psychopath, and refusing to have reasoned arguments as to why we should listen to him. He was dead set on lynching Queuing and having BM take out either zuma or Gadarene, and persisted in this even after zuma's Mason claim and subsequent confirmation. Queuing ended up in the town's favor, although not fully trusted as town yet by many, and the other two are accepted as Town. I stand that at that point in time, Winston Smith's posting netted him his fate. I did propose him as a possible conditional kill. But, it was others that took it and ran. I did not vote to lynch or to Vig, merely gave my opinion on the Vig.
Oh, also, I didn't see Pleonast on your recap of people for the killing of Winston Smith, but he was for it before I made my suggestion. Here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8425394&postcount=1432) and Here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8425394&postcount=1444)
While he is now firmly Town, just showing that not everyone who was against Winston can be in your Group of Evil Peoples.

Pleonast

04-06-2007, 01:32 PM

kivvik has it right about Winston. Based on the two games so far, his playstyle is apparently that of an irrational psychopath. :)

He went to his grave, still believing me and zuma are scum. Nothing personal against him, but he surely was not posting in a way to convince others he was a Townie. At least he didn't false role-claim again.

As for analysis, I wouldn't hold anything against people who voted against him. Instead, look at people who were trying to defend him. They're more likely to be Townies, since I can't see why a Mafia would defend a Townie obviously headed for the grave.

storyteller0910

04-06-2007, 01:49 PM

I think my eyes are bleeding. OK, so today has been an exceedingly quiet day at work, and I had more free time than I anticipated. I just spent the last three hours (!) going through posts in a different way (by user rather than sequentially). I have many - probably an excess of - thoughts. I'd like to share them here. I'm dividing people into four categories here:

1. STRONG TOWN: People who, for the purposes of my present analysis, I am considering to be very likely pro-town. I realize many of you disagree with these, but I have to start somewhere and this is where I'm starting. Their names, and my reasoning for each, should be found in one of my last few posts.

2. LEANING TOWN: People who strike me as generally trustworthy, for whom I would be disinclined to vote at this particular point.

3. QUESTION MARKS: This actually comprises two types of people: those who I feel have evidence of both town and pro-town leanings, about whom I am therefore uncertain, and those who haven't given me enough information to develop an opinion in any direction.

4. LEANING SCUM: These are the people I think are most likely to be the bad guys.

So...

CATEGORY 1 - STRONG TOWN
Pleonast, Zuma, Queuing, sturmhauke, JSexton, Autolycus, Rysto, Mennocchio, Blaster Master

CATEGORY 2 - LEANING TOWN

Fern Forest - one of our most prolific posters. I now consider her to be very strong town, for the following reasons. First, her post at 622, suggesting that the Mafia is trying to encourage us to lynch sturm, Auto, and chrisk, has been the basis for my own thinking for a while now. Second, at 715 she called out nesta, albeit lightly, with utterly no prompting; I think scum will vote for and even call out other scum, but not so completely out of the blue. She has also argued that we should avoid going violently after those who make plays or suggestions that could be indicative of inexperience; I would expect Mafia to leap on signs of weakness.

Lakai - for the simple reason that s/he has had a very high signal-to-noise ratio throughout, was a supporter of Gadarene even when many of us were not, and seems to have a bead on the right way to approach the game.

Monkey Mensch - Did he read the parallel thread? I don't know; I don't think it matters. He might have been understating his own experience just to take the target off his back at night. All I know is that, as he himself notes in 1694, he has been willing to ride some very lonely bandwagons (for brewha and Aguecheek). This suggests town to me. He also did a few math-y posts, but I cannot manage to work through those right now.

CATEGORY 3 - QUESTION MARKS

Aguecheek - evidence in both directions. Generally seems to distrust people that I trust, notably BM, JSexton, and recently MonkeyMensch, on whom I'm currently leaning town as above. On the other hand, he argued generally in favor of fewer killings early in the game (400). Most in his favor, he argued against the escalating tensions that marked the middle-to-later part of Day 2 (in post 839). His position seemed to be that we needed more evidence to make a decision; given what we now know / think we know about the participants in the Queuing / Gadarene / BM / Pleonast / Zuma donnybrook, I'd think a Mafia member would have made more of an effort to encourage the battle, not defuse it.

ArizonaTeach - had early suspicion of both BM and chrisk/JSexton,, but had decent reasons for his suspicions in both cases and seems to have backed away from those two somewhat. Currently suspicious of Pygmy Rugger, which sounds like a good idea (see below).

brewha - part of yesterday's chaos, but not a major part. Voted early against MonkeyMensch for vague reasons - he didn't like Monkey's early protestations of newbie-ness - but is currently accusing Fern Forest of posting without content, a charge with which I disagree. Not enough here to make a judgment one way or the other.

Fretful Porpentine - some very good recent points on the importance of keeping the Vig's kills open to town discussion, and on the likelihood that the Mafia will not vote in concert. On the other hand, her most recent analysis seems targeted at JSexton and BlasterMaster, two people I believe to be town. On the other other hand, she has since amended that approach to aim more at two people on whom I have very little read - glee and kivvik. Other the other hand... there is no other hand. So I don't really know.

glee - I got nothing.

howcow - on her, either. She seems very cautious in her approach.

Kat - as does she.

Kivvik - has generally defended Autolycus throughout. This probably means something; unfortunately, I have no idea what it is.

MadtheSwine - early in the game, threw around accusations pretty freely. Later, though, he caught out Pygmy Rugger at 860. He was back on Pygmy Rugger today, then unvoted Pygmy in order to vote for MonkeyMensch. He has since unvoted Monkey, but not revoted Pygmy. Again, I have no idea what, if anything, any of this means.

Malacandra - Honestly? He's the only poster for whom participation in this thread hasn't been the overwhelming majority of his time at the SDMB in the last few days. So combing through his posting history was much more difficult than it was for the rest of the players. This means nothing from a game standpoint other than that I can't draw a bead on him either way.

StarvingButStrong - I haven't had much to go on with her until very recently; I'd like to see how her recent analysis plays out before forming an opnion.

Suburban Plankton - ditto.

CATEGORY 4 - LEANING SCUM

FlyingCowofDoom - My evidence is way weaker than I thought it was, though. He has the appearance of a bandwagon voter to some extent, but so have many others in the first two Days. I have noticed that he has a tendency to post a lot of vote counts and vote corrections, giving him the impression of participating a lot without forcing him to do a lot of analysis. Trying to be helpful, or trying to keep the light out of corners he'd rather avoid?

pimaspinner - Where to begin? She voted Enfant Terrible for no particular reason (475) once others had gotten the voting started. She very bizarrely continued to insist that CaerieD's crumb was Blaster Master and not Menocchio. Note that, as of post 712, she is not arguing, as others have, that the crumb could have been anyone; she is emphatically stating that it was most likely Blaster Master, which sounds incredibly specious. Of course, she backtracked on this and went with the safer "we just can't know" explanation at 1003, but compare 712 and 1003 and see how different they read.

Then, at 984, she defends Pygmy Rugger, the only person to do so at that time, rather than wait for him to mount a defense of his own.

She was right there in the middle of the excitement yesterday, throwing votes around at every (presumed) townie in the bunch.

Finally, this morning, she first does the whole contradictory analysis, accusing me of being scum voting for scum, then casting doubt on Rysto for suggesting the Mafia would do exactly that. But hey, I've been "raising her suspicions all game" (post 1772), which explains why she's been telling everyone about it for days, right? Like when she used my opinion of FCoD to bolster her own at 894! Or when she agreed with my point regarding CaerieD at 868. Oh, wait. She's actually never mentioned being suspicious of me ever before, and agreed with me most of the times she's even mentioned me. But suddenly, she's been suspicious of me all game? <cough>SCUM<cough>

Pygmy Rugger - He might well be scum. He's been a bit squirrelly the whole game. I do think he was disagreeing, not agreeing, with Suburban Plankton at 1814, so I wouldn't use that as the basis for examination.

Fretful Porpentine

04-06-2007, 02:47 PM

For the record, I'm not arguing that everyone who voted for Winston Smith is part of a Group of Evil Peoples; Menocchio is pretty clearly town unless he's the Godfather, and glee, who never voted for WS at all, is probably the one I'm most convinced is in cahoots with Blaster Master. The posts where he invites BM to name his own target, BM makes a show of refusing, and eventually does just that, strike me as extremely suspicious.

As for kivvik, Rysto, and JSexton, it would not surprise me if one or even two of the three were innocent -- I'm not placing any definite bets there.

Queuing

04-06-2007, 02:49 PM

May I make a suggestion? That if you are going to talk about posts, can we get a link to the actual post? I have figured out how to do this and here is how.

Click on the number of the post (in upper Right corner next to the report post) and open it in a different window/tab. Then copy the URL, and paste it into the |insert hyperlink"

Storyteller0910 are you keeping your vote at FCOD now? Or do you find pimaspinner the more worthy of lynch targets?

Suburban Plankton

04-06-2007, 02:55 PM

Also, upon reflection, vote Suburban Plankton. Primarily because your playstyle seems to have changed dramatically from the first game. Before, you posted frequently with quality analysis. Now, your posting has dropped off. I recall several posts from you promising content soon, but very little follow-through. And what analysis you've given seems wrongheaded.color removed from quote to avoid confusion

I think everyone would agree that this game has moved along a bit differently than the last one. We had over a thousand posts in one Game Day, for Og's sake! every time I looked at the thread earlier this week, it was another page longer. By the time I had an opportunity to read through all of the posts I had missed and formulate a reply, there would be another page of posts. So just to let everyone know I was still playing along, I'd drop the odd "I'm still here and trying to catch up" post.

So I don't think that my posting has dropped off so much as the posting in general has skyrocketed, and my contributions (as well as those of many others) just seem small in comparison.

So last night I finally had a chance to catch my breath (because the frantic pace of posting finally slowed down) and I posted some actual analysis, and look where it has gotten me. It seems that anyone who speaks their mind in this game automatically becomes a suspect. I'm sorry if my analysis thus far seems "wrongheaded"; please point me to some analysis that had proven better. Since the Town has managed collectively to kill exactly zero bad guys, I don't think you'll find any.

Regarding my analysis from last night: I stand by what I said; I think that we are worse off since Blaster Master "outed" himself. If he were truly doing the town's bidding, that would be one thing, but I don't think that is the case. I think that he and the Mafia (which he may or may not be part of) are manipulating the "Vigilante voting" to suit their own ends. I think that the town only has an illusion that they are in control of Blaster Master, and that is the problem. If he were truly doing what the good townspeople wanted, that would be fine. If he is not, then he is a liability.

And just to make things clear, I'm not calling for Blaster Master's head if the vigilante kills one more Citizen. I don't believe I ever said that. Hell, we've all killed Citizens, and we're very likely to do it again before the game is over. What I said is that he needs to be held accountable for his actions. If he makes his own choice, and tells us about it ahead of time, then we have the opportunity to pass judgment on that choice. If we don't like it, we can tell him so.

If, at the end of the day he makes a choice that we all think is logical, and it turns out to be wrong, I'm not going to automatically call for his head in the morning. However, if the same thing happens several days in a row, I'm going to change my tune, because it's Blaster Master who is responsible. But if we are calling the shots for him, we can't hold anyone responsible; we just have to keep chugging away, losing an extra Citizen every night.

You know, now that I think more about it, I don't have a problem if we continue to vote on the Vigilante's targets. But I think we should leave the final decision up to Blaster Master himself. He can listen to the town's wishes, or he can set them aside. The choice should be his and his alone. If we collectively make a "bad" choice, and he ignores us and kills scum instead of our target, then everybody wins. If we make a "good" choice and he ignores us and kills a Citizen instead, then he loses. And if he agrees with the town's choice, then we live or die together. The point is, Blaster master alone is actually doing the killing, so Blaster Master alone has to be held accountable for his actions. Maybe it's not fair, because he didn't ask for the role, but that's life in Ceciltown.

Autolycus

04-06-2007, 02:58 PM

I's tired and going to work soon. Tried understanding this spaghetti thread, but gots nowhere. Apparenstly, this lynch mob ain't neva gonna stop, so I's put my name into the hat just likes everyone else.

lynch Suburban Plankton.

NAF1138

04-06-2007, 03:33 PM

Maybe it's not fair, because he didn't ask for the role, but that's life in Ceciltown.

Psst, this game takes place in Doperville. The last one was in Ceiciltown. ;)

Queuing

04-06-2007, 03:58 PM

You know, now that I think more about it, I don't have a problem if we continue to vote on the Vigilante's targets. But I think we should leave the final decision up to Blaster Master himself. He can listen to the town's wishes, or he can set them aside. The choice should be his and his alone. If we collectively make a "bad" choice, and he ignores us and kills scum instead of our target, then everybody wins. If we make a "good" choice and he ignores us and kills a Citizen instead, then he loses. And if he agrees with the town's choice, then we live or die together. The point is, Blaster master alone is actually doing the killing, so Blaster Master alone has to be held accountable for his actions. Maybe it's not fair, because he didn't ask for the role, but that's life in Ceciltown.

The problem I have with this is that I don't see why Blaster Master would ever go against what the town has to say. It would not be in his best interests to do so. IMO, there is little chance the BM is mafia. Yes, it does seem like he led the charge against Winston, with little explanation as to why he suspected him. However Winston didn't exactly help himself out.

The main reason I don't think BM is mafia is because how could the Mafia have known what would happen on day 2? How could they have seen the giant mess that it was? They don't get to strategize during the day. It would have taken a brilliant piece of on the fly thinking for BM to do what he did, as the mafia. If that happened, well then he and they deserve to win.

Yes, we have killed a lot of citizens. Yes blood is on BM's hands. He has to kill, he can't not kill. The first day chances are he would have killed a townie. The second night, well I never found CaerieD suspicious, but I suppose he did. Regardless we all still had very little to go on. The 3rd night we all agreed, sort of, to kill Winston (or me).

BM can only do what we say. Even if we did follow your suggestion, BM's only hope would be to do what we tell him to do. For what its worth, I find this discussion on what BM needs to do suspicious. I think it is a decided issue, and further discussion of it seems, to me, to be an attempt to ignite some more anger, and bury this thread in more crap.

Nor do I think we should be worried about the VIG kill yet. Lets get the lynch down, and then go for the vig kill. I realize that the 12 hour window makes this somewhat problematic, and I don't mean to suggest people should not say anything about whom they want to VIG, but lynching a mobster is our first priority.

NAF1138

04-06-2007, 04:05 PM

Trying to get them in while I can still keep up.

3- Suburban Plankton - (StarvingButStrong, JSexton, Autolycus)
2- JSexton - (FCoD, Suburban Plankton)
2- MonkeyMensch - (Aguecheek, hocow)
2 -pimaspinner (Lakai, Pygmy Rugger)
1- Fern Forest - (brewha)
1- Flying Cow of Doom - (Storyteller0910)
1- kivvik - (Fretful Porpentine)

Fretful Porpentine

04-06-2007, 04:09 PM

The main reason I don't think BM is mafia is because how could the Mafia have known what would happen on day 2? How could they have seen the giant mess that it was? They don't get to strategize during the day. It would have taken a brilliant piece of on the fly thinking for BM to do what he did, as the mafia. If that happened, well then he and they deserve to win.
That is probably the main weak point of my theory, and it's why I think the town should approach with caution. I do think, however, that there could have been some pre-strategizing to the effect of "if one of us is on the chopping block, he or she will claim to be the Vigilante and offer to kill a player of the town's choice to prove it, and the other players will steer things to make sure he kills a townie." That much, I think, is foreseeable -- even if the spectacular effectiveness of the ploy must have been beyond the Mafia's wildest dreams.

A point against this, of course, is that the fake Vigilante has to throw himself on the Doctor's protection, or else the real Vigilante will take him out the first night -- but if a Mafia member were in danger of immediate lynching, I can see how they'd think it was a risk worth taking.

Suburban Plankton

04-06-2007, 04:32 PM

Nor do I think we should be worried about the VIG kill yet. Lets get the lynch down, and then go for the vig kill. I realize that the 12 hour window makes this somewhat problematic, and I don't mean to suggest people should not say anything about whom they want to VIG, but lynching a mobster is our first priority.
This was actually the point I was trying to make when I first started down this road. We have been too busy working out "scenarios" of who the Vigilante should kill if our lynch target is or is not Mafia, who we should target tomorrow if this or that happens tonight, etc.; we seem to have lost focus on our primary task, which is to lynch Mafia members.

All of this other talk is just that much more smoke. It started on Day 1 with chrisk's "let's all pretend to be cops", then continued with the "trust/mistrust lists". Day 2 consisted primarily of about half a dozen people making 20 pages of posts, about 1% of which probably had anything useful in them. We're doing the same thing here on Day 3, arguing about how the Vigilante kill should be decided, instead of discussing who should be lynched (except, of course, for those of you who have combined the two topics and voted for me).

So, back to business...

Although I voiced the theory that Blaster Master might be Mafia, I do think (and I said at the time) that it is most likely that he is actually the Vigilante. I can understand why the "real" Vigilante (if there is one) would remain silent at this point; he might not want to put a target on his back by coming out while the town is so far in the whole. But that theory only holds water for so long.

I'd say that we can probably establish Blaster Master's identity with a fair amount of certainty tonight. If he kills a Mafia member, then he's OK. If he kills a Citizen then the town is down 9 bodies (at least), and any counter-claim would have to be made tomorrow, or it would be too late. If nobody counter-claims by the end of Day 4, then Blaster Master is "confirmed". And if someone does counter-claim, they 'd better be able to back it up.

I've stated already that I think we should lynch JSexton. this was based both on suspicious behavior by chrisk, and also on the voting strategy (or lack thereof) by JSexton. I stand by that vote.

Now, I think I'm going to try to shut up for a while.

Blaster Master

04-06-2007, 04:50 PM

Okay, people have seemed to claim there isn't much as far as clues go in nesta's posts to draw some information on. I disagree, but before I get into my reasoning, it is based on the following premises, some of which are facts of the game, some of which are lessons I've learned from the bad lynchings, and some of which I assume are simply good strategy:

1. The mafia know who is definitely not mafia, but are unsure of the SK.

2. The mafia are loathe to draw attention to themselves either, either positive or negative, because negative attention risks lynching and positive attention risks "too helpful" and "why haven't the mafia taken you out yet?" questions.

3. Bad logic does not necessarily a mafia make.
3b. Defending bad logic draws negative attention.

4. Mafia are loathe to draw more than weak connections amongst themselves, in case they get found out.
4b. Mafia DO want to draw connections among the trusted and "soon-to-be-lynched" townies to get "innocent by association" thought process.

5. Unlike the previous mafia game, this one started with night which means the mafia went into day one with a plan.

Based on these thoughts, I have looked over nesta's posts and picked what look like could be key clues to the trends the mafia may have strategized. Fortunately, he didn't have that many posts (otherwise this would have been much hard).

Before the game:
Throws out a jestful random vote. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=98). (pointed out for day one contrast).

No night posts!

Day 1:
Afraid to make a random intial vote and warns about making an early bandwagon. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=303)
Infact, FAILED to make an initial vote AT ALL. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=506)
Said nothing else the rest of the day.

No night posts!

Day 2:
Points FoS at chrisk (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=603), going seemingly unnoticed.
Offers a non-defensive defense (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=661) when sturmhauke votes for him.
Has a "bad feeling" about the bandwagon that was building against me. Votes for another leading bandwagon instead (Queuing). (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=752)
Similarly, is reluctant to point FoS at Gadarene. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=768)
Posts seemingly helpful thoughts about why there were only two deaths on night one. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=773)
Again advises for slow voting. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=811)
Defends Autolycus from lynching, but proposes a VIG hit. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=833)
Posts a lucid defense of the CaerieD breadcrumb being for Menocchio and not against me. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=917)
Again expresses discontent with the bandwagon against me and finally FOSs Gadarene. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=1015)
Changes votes to a "safer" Gadarene. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=1037)
Expresses surprise in my VIG role-claim and seemingly helpful analysis of what that may entail (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=1166) and then is quick to agree
with Rysto's suggestion. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=1167)
Agrees with StarvingButStrong on the idea for me to VIG whichever between Gadarene and Queuing doesn't get lynched. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=1288)
Agrees with idea to VIG Queuing. Not quite points FOS at Winston Smith. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=1512)
Seemingly helpful post explaining reasons for Gadarene's suspiciousness. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=1518)
Supports Conditional Vigging Queuing/Winston Smith. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=1526)

1 Night post expressing exceeding surprise that Gadarene was, in fact, a townie. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=1632)

DEAD (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8405969&postcount=1663)

Now, here's some hypotheses I have drawn from nesta's posts:

1. Mafia are likely to have little or no night posting. Probably due to voting and plotting in the mafia board.

2. Mafia are likely to endorse "safe" and/or popular ideas. Bandwagoning isn't necessarily in votes, but also in which ideas they do and do not support. That is, you're less likely to see crazy off-the-wall ideas and theories.

3. Mafia are likely to over compensate when feigning surprise at discovering things (eg, me having a killing role, and Gadarene being a townie). I find it all but impossible to believe the mafia didn't know I had a killing role during the first night being that several other players mentioned it; one of them must have also keyed it.

4. The mafia are more likely to protest bandwagons when they know they will end prior to lynching. Again, on the assumption the mafia knew I had a power-role and would claim prior to being lynched.

Here's some theories on the mafia's strategies I have derived from the nesta's posts:

1. Knowing mafia had a plan going into day one; knowing that bandwagoning is a mafia tell; knowing that wild paranoia will likely lead lynching of the louder posters, the mafia were less likely to vote and participate on the first day. That is, "give someone enough rope..."

2. Mafia will only provide in depth analysis and outstanding endorsement on indisputably correct ideas.

3. The mafia will want to cozy up to the most trusted and accepted townies and generally ignore the untrusted and mafia.

Assuming there is some grain of truth in my theories. I will now have to point the FOS at kivvik, sturmhauke, storyteller0910, Rysto, and Lakai in particular. This may also implicate ArizonaTeach, hocow, and, smitty. I will have to go through their posts more and see how many of this applies to some of them.

Similarly, this would SEEM to vindicate some of the popular targets like JSexton, Suburban Plankton, but obviously, they can't ALL follow the same strategy.

Rysto

04-06-2007, 05:03 PM

Oh, Blaster Master, I have some bad news for you. You're going to have to redo all of those links -- they all point to the same post.

I'm about to re-read for the umpteenth time, but I'm not hopeful of picking up anything new. The Mafia thus far have been devilishly clever at covering their tracks.

Queuing

04-06-2007, 05:12 PM

Most of those links all point to the 1st one, just so you know Blaster Master.

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-06-2007, 05:15 PM

Most of those links all point to the 1st one, just so you know Blaster Master.Not for me...

--FCOD

kivvik

04-06-2007, 05:36 PM

Interesting ideas, Blaster Master.

Hypothesis #2 - Naturally. But so will citizens, although they are more likely to be the ones proposing the ideas.

On Theory #1 - Well, this is more of a question about bandwagoning more than anything. At what point does a vote become a 'bandwagon' vote? At some point to lynch someone the vote count needs to get kinda high. I understand that if the vote is the 'Uh, I'll vote SoAndSo too!' kind that pops up after 5-6 people have voted, then that would qualify. But if they say 'I shall also vote for SoAndSo, and here's why...<insert lines of reasoning that may or may not be repeats of earlier people's>' at the same point, is that also 'bandwagoning'? Multiple people can have the same reasons to vote for someone, and I don't just mean Mafia.

On Theory #2 - What about people who miss all of the idea building, but chime in to give approval later on and give their reasons why they support it? Scum? Or people with different schedules? Not a common happening, but possible.

On Theory #3 - More or less true, so not much to say here. Although in my defense, I've mainly associated myself (one-way, he's not mentioned me more than to say ????) with Autolycus. Not the highest on most people's list. I've identified somewhat with JSexton due to his report on Autolycus, but he's not really popular either. Sorry, but it's true :p I can't remember if I've sided with anyone else.

Just some quick questions for you. I worry that it seems overly defensive, but if people point at me, I've got to respond. But frankly, in this game, it seems that -anything- is a scum tell.

Kat

04-06-2007, 06:28 PM

Also, Kat I would like to know if you have drawn any conclusions from this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8431127&postcount=1693)

Pretty much not. I went into the research with a theory that someone who spent a lot of posts arguing with zuma and then posted after Blaster Master's suggestion without any objection to it might be Mafia.

Unfortunately, the two at the top of the list are you (Queuing) and Gadarene. Queuing posted the highest number of argumentative posts, and Gadarene posted the highest number of posts after Blaster's suggestion. Gadarene, obviously, has been confirmed town. Queuing, for various reasons mentioned elsewhere in the thread, that I am not going to look up at this time, is not currently high on my suspicion list, although he is still on it, and this theory is one reason why.

The others only posted once or twice in the argument, and may have just been sick of re-reading it over and over. Lakai, especially, I believe this of, based on his response to my pointing out the discrepency of Blaster making the suggestion after this argument.

When does this day end again? Since it's the weekend now and I actually have a bit of free time, I'd like to go through the thread again, and want to know how long I have to do it.

StarvingButStrong

04-06-2007, 06:46 PM

Monday. I don't remember the time, but I'm sure of the day.

While I'm typing -- I realize that part of my problem is I keep 'forgetting' that there are a LOT of scum out there. (6? 7? 8? MORE? :eek: ) I'll read a post accusing, say, PimaSpinner and think Hmmm. And then the next post accuses, say, MonkeyMensch, and I think Hmmm.

Which is okay, except then I start trying to decide which of the two accusing posters is 'right,' and therefore the other is 'wrong -- and if they are wrong, mightn't that be a scum tell in itself? Which is stupid. The fact is that BOTH accusers might very well be right. Or neither.

I'm trying to remember that I don't really have to find THE MOST ABSOLUTELY SCUMMIEST PLAY IN THE ENTIRE GAME. Just voting for ANY of the scummy ones is good enough.

And if it takes a long time for the town to settle on a lynchee, fine. Right now, it's good to have a second and even a third favorite for the vig and sk to possibly use.

Queuing

04-06-2007, 06:51 PM

Kat I believe its Monday at noon or so. So you should have all Saturday to read it, and come to some sort of conclusion.

FCOD really? They work, or they just don't all point to the 1st link? Because I went to all of them, and they all point to the same. Not that big a deal.

Due to us needing to make 2 decisions, I think we should have people close to be lynched by Sunday morning.

That is when I will be giving my vote at least, and I would suggest that Zuma, Pleonast and BM due the same.

Rysto

04-06-2007, 08:10 PM

Well, I haven't re-read the whole thread, because the signal-to-noise ratio approaches 0 as this game approaches the end of Day 2. Frankly, if the Mafia managed to orchestrate that, they're geniuses. I find it far more likely that a bunch of Townies got in a screaming match with one another, all of them getting indignant because they were being accused of lying. The more indignant they got, the more suspicious they looked, and we ended up killing off the ones who couldn't prove that they were Town. I can't find very much of interest there. From the rest of the game, though, some things did stand out.

First off is this post from Kat (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407097&postcount=362) on Day 1. Remember my (faulty) analysis of how CaerieD's trust list led to her death. Well, I was probably wrong about that, but that doesn't mean we can't use the same logic here for our own benefit. At this point in the thread, nesta had posted exactly once in the game. So why on earth did Kat trust her? Perhaps Kat slipped a fellow Mafioso in her trust list?

Second is this post from Blaster Master (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414783&postcount=637). At the time, I thought that he was Mafia, and trying to divert attention from my theory about CaerieD's death. With what we know now, it's clearly a post from the Vigilante begging for help on future kills. I can't see any reason why the Serial Killer would be asking for help like this -- any death benefits the Serial Killer. In another post(which I forgot to note the number of), Blaster Master indicates that he's very worried that the Serial Killer will soon turn on the town. There's no way that the Serial Killer would want to bring that kind of thought to our attention. So at this point, I believe that Blaster Master is indeed the Vigilante.

Third is JSexton's post of his initial analysis (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8421755&postcount=1061). His very first point accuses Blaster Master of being the Serial Killer. Thing is, that makes no bloody sense. This comes 500 posts after BM's post I just linked to above. I have to believe that a player of JSexton's experience should be able to catch the hints. I think that he saw that the bandwagon was ready to take out Blaster Master, and that his voice could push things over the top. Then, when BM was dead and revealed as the Vigilante, he could say that he had been right that BM had had a killing role -- too bad that he had misread things and BM had been the Vig, not the SK. This post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8424316&postcount=1270) could be interpreted as being a hint to fellow Mafioso to manipulate the conditional exactly as he said(remember, during the day, Mafioso can't communicate off-board). That's kind of weak, I realize. There's also this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8424405&postcount=1284), in which he proposes lynching Queuing, and killing Gadarene only if Queuing is Town(in the meantime, most people were calling for Gadarene's head only if Queuing was scum). Now, he mentions Aguecheek as the target if Queuing is scum, and I don't know what to make of that. He could be trying to protect a fellow Mafioso. Or, when Gadarene and Queuing both turned up Town, maybe he'd call for Aguecheek's head next. I'm not going to try to read his mind here.

Third, I found the Enfant Terrible bandwagon to be quite interesting. Here's the order in which people voted for him(green means confirmed Town):

1)Pleonast
2)Blaster Master
3)Arizona Teach
4)Flying Cow of Doom
5)Gadarene
6)Malacandra
7)storyteller0910
8)pimaspinner
9)cowgirl
10)Winston Smith

Now, here's the order in which people FoS'ed Enfant Terrible(up to the casting of the 3rd vote)

1)storyteller0910
2)Pleonast*
3)CaerieD
4)Gadarene
5)Smitty
6)Blaster Master*
7)Arizona Teach
8)Lakai
9)pimaspinner
10)zuma
11)kivvik
12)Menocchio
13)Fretful Porcupine

* Voted with this post

I find it quite interesting that storyteller0910 started the Enfant Terrible bandwagon, but didn't actually vote until it had accumulated 6 votes already. Got caught behind in a fast-moving game? Or waiting until your vote would be lost among the noise?

Next, hocow. Blaster Master believes her to be the Serial Killer, and I agree. Remember how early in the thread, several of us were wondering why all three victims were players from the last game. Blaster Master "theorized" that the Vig and SK killed people who had already had the chance to play. hocow (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406823&postcount=350) was the only person who backed-up this theory. There was also an interesting exchange on Day 2 between hocow and Blaster Master.

Finally, pimaspinner did say something stupid early on today when he contradicted himself. We keep killing people for saying stupid things though(Enfant Terrible and Winston Smith especially) and they end up being Town. We(and I certainly include myself in this) keep making the mistake of confusing stupid with scummy. So far, I don't think that the Mafia have done many stupid things.*

* Note to scum: This isn't a free pass to say something stupid and be considered Town. ;)

Rysto

04-06-2007, 08:23 PM

Jeez, I forgot to vote:

Vote hocow[/url]. As somebody already pointed out, if hocow is the SK, lynching her prevents another killer.
[color=DarkOrange]Assassinate JSexton. His faulty analysis of Blaster Master is too much to get over.

Oh, and I am definitely not happy that storyteller was the one who FoS'ed pimaspinner, but has yet to vote for him.

Rysto

04-06-2007, 08:24 PM

Rysto

04-06-2007, 08:30 PM

Ok, I'm an idiot. If hocow is the SK, then BM doesn't get a night kill. Now I need to think whether it's worth trading a random kill by the SK for one more night kill by BM.

zuma

04-06-2007, 08:32 PM

If hocow is the SK as you propose, Rysto, and Blaster Master is the vig, if we lynched hocow would Blaster Master be able to kill anyone that night? I thought the vig becomes an ordinary townie once the SK is dead.

zuma

04-06-2007, 08:35 PM

Well, to accomplish the same thing, lynch JSexton and have BM kill hocow.

Rysto

04-06-2007, 08:48 PM

Ok, this isn't too hard to work out. If hocow is not the SK, then it doesn't matter whether we lynch JSexton and night kill hocow or vice versa. It does make a difference if hocow is the SK. Here's how things will work out:

Today: Lynch hocow
Night: Mafia kills a Townie
Tomorrow: Lynch JSexton
Night: Mafia kills a Townie

Today: Lynch JSexton
Night: Mafia kills a Townie
BM kills hocow
hocow kills a random person

So if we lynch hocow first, we're guaranteed to lose 2 Townies. If we lynch JSexton and night-kill hocow, then we lose one Townie and one random person. That random person could either be a Townie or a Mafioso, so that way sounds better. The only way that lynching hocow is better is if the Doctor can managed to save somebody. And, if we have a Miller, he could really help us out by blocking hocow tonight.

So, I say:
Unvote hocow
Vote JSexton
Assassinate hocow

Suburban Plankton

04-06-2007, 09:04 PM

I am the one that pointed out that lynching the SK prevents another night kill.

So which is better? Lynching the SK, or letting the Vigilante kill him?

In the first scenario, we lynch the SK, which makes the Vigilante into a vanilla Citizen. and the Mafia makes their kill. There is only one kill at night, which will definitely be a Citizen. (We will assume for purposes of this analysis that no kills are blocked, and that nobody chooses not to kill at night).

In the second scenario, we lynch someone else, the Vigilante kills the SK, the Sk still gets to make their kill, and the Mafia gets theirs as well. We are guaranteed to be down one Citizen (from the Mafia), likely two (I assume the SK, knowing they are being targeted, will kill a Citizen out of spite/revenge), and possible three (if the Town guesses wrong on their lynch.

The only difference come morning is that in scenario 2, the Vigilante becomes a confirmed Citizen, but in scenario 1 he does not.

So are we willing to trade one or two bodies in order to confirm Blaster Master's status?

Of course, all of the above assumes that we know who the Serial Killer is. Since we don't, all of these calculations are exactly as valuable as our guess is correct.

Hockey Monkey

04-06-2007, 09:44 PM

I'll be the first to admit I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer when it comes to this game. This is the first time I've ever played, and I am woefully inadequate. I said before that my post #1772 didn't seem to be contradictory in my head. I can see now how some people would see it so. I was commenting on the fact that Rysto pointed out how the scum would not be voting together. That made perfect sense, but it seemed like common sense to me, and that pointing it out was an effort to obtain trust from the town. Following his reasoning, it seemed to me that storyteller was voting FCOD to get the ball rolling. Again, I apologize for not articulating this correctly. Hell, I don't know a scum tell from Adam. I'm having to rely only on what my insticts are telling me. So far, I've been mostly wrong. I thought Enfant Terrible, Blaster Master, Pleonast, and zuma were all scum. Gadarene and Winston Smith I did not. I went along with the plan for Blaster Master to kill Winston because I thought that Winston would die either way (because I felt Gadarene would be confirmed town, and I didn't want Queuing to be Vig killed because I thought he was also town. I was a little bit more sure about Queuing than Winston if you are wondering). I did offer up a feeble alternative for Winston, albeit jokingly. If Queuing winds up being Mafia, I'll give myself a big :smack:.

I may go to bed tonight and wake up facing a lynch mob. So be it. If so, I will mount a defense. It's embarrassing, but if I'm lynched you will all see how stupid and bad at this game I really am when you find out I am not the Mafia scum some are theorizing me to be.

I'll go ahead and get my vote in for Rysto. And because think that Blaster Master is probably right about who the SK is, based on his reasoning of how he decided who to kill on night 1, and hocow's post about why she thought that's why they were targeted, I will ask the Vig to kill hocow.

Fern Forest

04-06-2007, 10:31 PM

Lynch Fern Forest
I started the game thinking that the mafia would act suspiciously. And a lot of people seem to have thought that but they saw things that, for the most part, I wasn't seeing. Those people I did get suspicious of have all turned out to be town, especially those with power roles. This of course makes playing the game extremely hard if the people you have the hardest time trusting are on your side.

Should we ask the Miller to block hocow? Then if there are two kills tonight we'd know a little more.

Rysto

04-06-2007, 10:41 PM

We don't even know if we have any Millers. It seems quite risky to depend on us having any.

Autolycus

04-06-2007, 10:44 PM

Everyone's forgettin' bout the local millers. I think they's be throwin' some monkeys into the wrench, if ya knows what I mean.

Autolycus

04-06-2007, 10:48 PM

Oks, so maybe there aren't any millers. Anyways, ya knows, here's everyone talkin' bout learnin' shit from the numba of kills we's get each night. But ain't that a load of bullshit? Because we haves to consider the Doctor, the GA, and the miller(s), an's the fact that the so-called SK 'aint gotta do shit if he dont wanna.

If this is how it's gonna be, maybes the lynch mob should's get a new hobby.

Fern Forest

04-06-2007, 10:49 PM

We don't even know if we have any Millers. It seems quite risky to depend on us having any.
Ok, it's been so long since we started. But if we elect not to lynch hocow then, unless the Miller knows better, we might as well suggest that they block her. She's as good a candidate as any.

Rysto

04-06-2007, 10:51 PM

Oh, I definitely agree that the Millers should be blocking hocow. We just shouldn't depend on that to prove or disprove whether hocow is the SK.

Autolycus

04-06-2007, 10:56 PM

Why do we's think hocow is the SK again? Maybe hocow is the doctor and Fern Forest an' Rystoare Mafia tryin' to kill 'im off or at least block his action?
Of course if they's were mafia they wouldn't know, or maybe's somebody tipped 'em off. Nobody's safe in this stinkhole.

Autolycus

04-06-2007, 10:57 PM

FUCK. sorry. I forgot no edit. All I did was change the [b]Coding[b/]. Honest >>_<<;;;;

Queuing

04-06-2007, 11:01 PM

I started the game thinking that the mafia would act suspiciously. And a lot of people seem to have thought that but they saw things that, for the most part, I wasn't seeing. Those people I did get suspicious of have all turned out to be town, especially those with power roles. This of course makes playing the game extremely hard if the people you have the hardest time trusting are on your side.

Should we ask the Miller to block hocow? Then if there are two kills tonight we'd know a little more.

Problem with this is that say Hocow is the SK. The SK has the choice of killing or not killing. Therefore they could just not kill, and have everyone believe that they are hocow.

Honestly I see no way to KNOW who the SK is until someone actually kills them. Confirming BM is not really necessary at this time. IF the SK has not been killed by the time we have evened up the odds a little, which is the only reason BM is still alive, we must then lynch BM, to eliminate 2 things. The possibility of him really being the SK and the killing of extra people at night. As stated, at some point, we will want that to end. Obviously the preferred method of that is by having BM kill the SK, but the VIG killing ability ends with the SK, therefore it doesn't matter if BM is confirmed by NAF or not. The fact that only 1 night kill happens after the SK is killed confirms BM.

Unless he is mafia of course.

We should not, IMO, be going after the SK tonight. The SK has the same knowledge as vanilla citizens. They don't know who is town or who is scum. The SK may very well kill another scum tonight. Hell, the SK has been a better townie then all the rest of us (doctor excluded probably) in that they actually got a scum. What we need to do is get 2 scum. If we get 2 scum, they will be down to 6 and we have a hope. We lose, maybe, 2 other citizens tonight, bringing it down to (I think) 17 town aligned people left. 1 SK. The next day we go lynch another scum, getting them to 5, and then we direct the VIG to go after we who think is the SK. The night brings it down to 15 citizens, 5 scum. I would say at this time we have the cops and/or masons claim. The GA then uses his 1 time 2 person protection, the doctor protects whomever, and we lynch scum. This should give us enough info to win the game.

So lets just concentrate on trying our damndest to get 2 scum. Forget the SK at this moment.

MadTheSwine

04-06-2007, 11:04 PM

UH OH.... auto is in trrrrrroubllle.

Fern Forest

04-06-2007, 11:17 PM

Why do we's think hocow is the SK again?Solely because Blaster Master said so. Nothing has lept out at me concerning that.

Extremely good point Queuing. No proof there at all. Sigh, there are so many factors going on in this game.

I also continue to think that the ability for the SK to win with a Mafia majority is almost nil. If we believe that the mafia will act for the betterment of the team then they will not allow themselves to get a majority while the SK is alive. It's better for them to have 1 or 2 mobsters confess for the lynch and Vig kill then take the majority and lose. And if they're that close it doesn't really hurt them.

Autolycus

04-06-2007, 11:22 PM

UH OH.... auto is in trrrrrroubllle.

I is in trouble? I is in trouble? You'z in trouble punk. All this's game ya stayed silent-like on the major issues, and's all your stratergy is nothin' but tripe. I cant's claim much better, but hey them's the breaks.

You wanna dance? FoS pointed squarely at you pal.

MadTheSwine

04-06-2007, 11:25 PM

I also continue to think that the ability for the SK to win with a Mafia majority is almost nil.

The SK does win if the Mafia gains a majority.

Queuing

04-06-2007, 11:30 PM

MTS I believe that was he point, that until the SK is killed the scum don't want to win.

I agree Fern Forest, for a bunch of n00b players we certainly stepped in it this time.

So please, let us forget about the SK currently? Scum should be the only goal today and tonight.

MadTheSwine

04-06-2007, 11:48 PM

I is in trouble? I is in trouble? You'z in trouble punk. All this's game ya stayed silent-like on the major issues, and's all your stratergy is nothin' but tripe. I cant's claim much better, but hey them's the breaks.

You wanna dance? FoS pointed squarely at you pal.

Hey,don't kill the messenger...just have a look at post 1834.

MadTheSwine

04-06-2007, 11:51 PM

JSexton

04-06-2007, 11:56 PM

Mad: why are you fishing for a modkill?

MadTheSwine

04-07-2007, 12:01 AM

Mad: why are you fishing for a modkill?

Fishing? No fishing about it. The rule was broken, but if NAF1138 wants to allow the reason for the edit, thats up to him.

Autolycus

04-07-2007, 12:12 AM

That tears it. MadTheSwine, fishin' or no, you seem all too eager to get's rid of me. I is changin' my vote, and I hope's a bandwagon takes off on this one.

Lynch MadTheSwine

You'z been on some otha bums' mistrust list too, if anyone else cares to look.

Autolycus

04-07-2007, 12:13 AM

Oh, and Unvote Suburban Plankton

Fern Forest

04-07-2007, 12:30 AM

To us the SK is scum and we should treat him as such. But the reason I keep bringing it up is that I want to make sure that the SK knows that the only victory possible for him comes from surviving to a town victory. Were the SK to try for a mafia win that I'm sure they could kill a townsperson every night with only a small chance of missing and getting a mafioso. But that is a losing strategy and I want to make sure the SK knows it. It's in our interest.

I'm curious what people think about this. Way back in the early 600s Blaster Master said that it was likely that cowgirl was the Mafia's target. The only other people who knew that were the mob and that people would make that assumption would have probably been very surprising to them. I don't recall much discussion about it beyond one post. Rysto seemed very surprised about it in post 650 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8415079&postcount=650). I think this may shine very strongly that he's a townsfolk. Would a mobster thought to have lept on this?

sturmhauke

04-07-2007, 12:35 AM

You think I might be scum because of a strategy disagreement?No, I didn't say that at all.
Yeah, OK. I lost track of who was saying what. I thought you were referring to my thoughts on whether we should be directing the Vig or not.
That's not true at all. All of the people I called as scum got a full paragraphs with links.
There were no links in this post. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8421755#post8421755) There were references to post numbers, but those aren't the easiest things to use. Were you hoping no one would go to the trouble of finding the posts? Here is the relevant portion:
Blaster Master. Serial Killer. He’s posting some neat analysis, because he wants to be perceived as useful. It’s also in his interest to catch scum. Trouble is, he got a little over eager and lied, and also made it clear that he’s got a killing role (317). That leaves one role, SK. I think he’s the best lynch today, in order to cut down on the number of deaths each night.

Pleonast: Scum. This surprises no one, of course. His bandwagonning makes his role pretty clear. Posts 391 and 461 are especially telling.

Queueing: Scum. His fishing for experienced players (268) and his misrepresentation of chrisk’s hypothetical cop claiming were pretty scummy. The best, though was post 581. A great big link-filled post analyzing CaerieD’s posts for breadcrumbs. Two problems: One: he got the conclusion wrong; Menocchio was clearly the crumb. Two, check the timestamps. That post was made thirty minutes after the dayscene went up. No way he read it, did that research, and came to his conclusion in that time. Not bloody likely. No, he and the rest of the mafia figured she was the cop, and planned this gambit. He may have even had that post ready to go.

glee: Scum, probably. Posts 267, 363 raise my hackles, so to speak. And I love post 884. What, scared of me? You want to lynch me before I get a chance to talk? How very townie of you.

Aguecheek: Scum, I think. Posts 393 stood out. Also, he’s been going after some perceived "easy" mislynches, like sturmhawke and Autolycus.

Gadarene: Potentially scum.I don’t like the attack on StarvingBut Strong in post 456. Unforced vanilla claim. OTOH, I agree with several of your targets, and post 822 is fairly townie.

Brewha: leaning scum. I don’t like his unforced claim in post 719. Bit too defensive.
Other than the sections on Blaster Master and Queuing, I wouldn't say this was particularly in-depth analysis. And let’s have a look at your most notable misread, namely Pleonast. Here is post #391 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8407721#post8407721), and here is post #461 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8408687#post8408687). You cite Pleonast's "bandwaggoning", but I don't see it at all in #391, and only peripherally in #461. That is not actually the post in which he voted for Enfant Terrible, if that's the bandwagon you're referring to. Nor did he vote for anyone else in that post, although he did cast aspersions on Autolycus and Queuing. Note that you and Pleonast were both suspicious of Queuing. Also note that Gadarene was on the Enfant Terrible bandwagon, but you didn't mention that, and it also turned out that Gadarene was just a Citizen - another misread.
"Vaunted"? Have I claimed to be a great master at this game? I'm experienced, yes.
No, you haven't, but you are probably more experienced than anyone else playing. Some people seem to be in awe of you, I was just riffing on that.
Also, the main reason I didn't sign up for the initial game is that my wife had a baby 3 weeks ago.
Congratulations! Too bad your kid's dad is mafia, though.

Vote JSexton.

glee

04-07-2007, 04:19 AM

Post 1772:

Glee - scum

No evidence given. Why do you think this?

Post 1843:

glee proposes another set of conditionals: lynch Queuing, kill Gadarene if scum, Autolycus if not. Blaster Master does not want to kill Autolycus because he says it won't give any information. glee asks BM to propose his own alternative target.
...
It seems to me that BM is playing an absolutely brilliant Richard III to glee's Buckingham

AT the time, Queueing and Gadarene were intensely suspicious of Pleonast and Blaster Master (who I both trusted).
Autolycus has posted a load of drivel, so even if he was Town, I flet he was a safe target.
I then accepted Blaster Master's logic that we could do better.

Post 1844:

I propose that we should either lynch JSexton and order BlasterMaster to kill glee or kivvik if JSexton turns out to be scum

JSexton thought I was Mafia in one of his first posts (based purely on my dislike of random voting :rolleyes: ).

He repeats it here:
Post 1849:

glee could well be scum, though.

If he is indeed scum, why would I be?

Post 1854:

Vote kivvik.
Assassinate glee if kivvik is scum.

What 'connection' have you got between me and Kivvik?!

Post 1865:

glee, who never voted for WS at all, is probably the one I'm most convinced is in cahoots with Blaster Master. The posts where he invites BM to name his own target, BM makes a show of refusing, and eventually does just that, strike me as extremely suspicious

I didn't vote for Enfant Terrible either.
I trusted Pleonast even when the heat was on him.
As I said above, I suggested Autolycus. Blaster Master said that would be a waste, so I asked for his opinion.
Presumably you agree Blaster Master is the Vig (a Townie) - why would a Mafia be 'in cahoots' with him?

glee

04-07-2007, 04:24 AM

1817 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435445&postcount=1817)

MALACANDRA!

First and last warning to the whole group. Use the edit feature, you will get mod killed.

This was one. Next time ANYONE uses the edit feature they are out.

So presumably there goes Autolycus?
If so, do we learn his status?

(In case I sound unsympathetic, Autolycus irritated several of us with loads content-free, then posted analysis at night. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: )
Mafia-speak posts

glee

04-07-2007, 04:26 AM

Resisting the temptation to edit :eek: , that last should have read:

'(In case I sound unsympathetic, Autolycus irritated several of us with loads of content-free Mafia-speak posts, then posted analysis at night. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: )'

Santo Rugger

04-07-2007, 05:07 AM

<snip> If we believe that the mafia will act for the betterment of the team then they will not allow themselves to get a majority while the SK is alive. It's better for them to have 1 or 2 mobsters confess for the lynch and Vig kill then take the majority and lose. And if they're that close it doesn't really hurt them.

Huh?

Oh, and on an unrelated note, Unvote pima.

zuma

04-07-2007, 07:42 AM

I'm not sure what you want from me here. I disagree with the positions he took. I thought he was looking scummy for them before I took over his role. Beyond that, how can I possibly defend positions I didn't take and don't agree with?

Fair or not, you are the one held accountable for chrisk's actions. At least offer up some reasoning for what he did. Rysto is better than I am at this game (this is my first ever, and this may be another mistake, but still...), but he laid it out and for now I am trusting him. If I were taking chrisk's role, I could think up a couple semi-decent reasons why he would:

a. Propose the cop-outing plan despite pointing to the obvious flaws in the werewolf observation thread

b. vote against the 12-hour countdown. Suspicious in itself, yet his defense made no sense at all.

storyteller0910

04-07-2007, 09:19 AM

*sigh*

Should have previewed.

Vote hocow. As somebody already pointed out, if hocow is the SK, lynching her prevents another killer.
Assassinate JSexton. His faulty analysis of Blaster Master is too much to get over.

Oh, and I am definitely not happy that storyteller was the one who FoS'ed pimaspinner, but has yet to vote for him.

Yeah, I wouldn't read much into this except that I am not so bright. As my post hopefully made clear, my intention at the time was to

Unvote FCoD
Vote pimaspinner

Though, honestly, I'd be equally happy voting for either, as I believe they are both scum.

In the meanwhile, what did you think of the rest of my arguments as regards pima in my very long post yesterday? I agree that penalizing people for one ill-thought statement would be a big mistake, which is why after I noticed the apparent contradiction and before

As for Enfant Terrible, as I made absolutely clear in my initial post that I had pointed out my suspicion of him in the hopes of getting a response. I didn't want to cast a vote without giving him a chance to answer for himself. You will note that immediately following his response, which I found to be unsatisfactory, I voted.

Other quick hit thoughts:

zuma, it makes no sense to hold JSexton to chrisk's actions; he cannot possibly know what chrisk was thinking.

[OUT OF GAME TALK]
Folks, I'm probably not going to be posting much in the next few days. I have any number of absolutely thrilling family commitments today and tomorrow, and my computer access will be limited. I'll probably have time to make one post in the morning on Sunday and another early on Monday, and I'll do my best to keep abreast of everything in the meanwhile. I apologize.
[/OUT OF GAME TALK]

storyteller0910

04-07-2007, 09:21 AM

In the meanwhile, what did you think of the rest of my arguments as regards pima in my very long post yesterday? I agree that penalizing people for one ill-thought statement would be a big mistake, which is why after I noticed the apparent contradiction and before

See what I mean about not being bright? To finish this sentence:

...after I noticed the apparent contradiction and before I voted for pima, I went back and checked her record, and found any number of other things that struck me as odd. Add them together, and there seems like there's a pattern there.

MadTheSwine

04-07-2007, 09:49 AM

zuma, it makes no sense to hold JSexton to chrisk's actions; he cannot possibly know what chrisk was thinking.

:confused:??? Jsexton/chrisk are one and the same. Jsex is accountable for the ck posts...and... I think he has a very good idea what chrisk was thinking.

ArizonaTeach

04-07-2007, 09:56 AM

pimaspinner, I'm curious. After storyteller0910 accuses you of being scum in a lengthy analysis, (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8436922&postcount=1864) rysto defends you. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8438168&postcount=1882) Your response? Vote rysto (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8438407&postcount=1890) with no addressing of storyteller0910's points. I don't see your chain of reasoning here.

Fretful Porpentine

04-07-2007, 09:57 AM

JSexton thought I was Mafia in one of his first posts (based purely on my dislike of random voting ).

He repeats it here:
Post 1849:

Quote:
Originally Posted by JSexton
glee could well be scum, though.

If he is indeed scum, why would I be?
Because it's good strategy for a Mafia member to say that another Mafia member "could" be scum, as long as the second member is not in immediate danger of lynching. Publicly voicing suspicion is an excellent way to distance themselves from each other, no?
What 'connection' have you got between me and Kivvik?!
I think you both fed Blaster Master the lines he needed to make sure the town voted to kill an innocent townie -- you by inviting him to choose his target, kivvik by putting Winston Smith's name forward. That said, I'm not absolutely sure you're BOTH working with him.
Presumably you agree Blaster Master is the Vig (a Townie) - why would a Mafia be 'in cahoots' with him?
No. I don't believe Blaster Master is the Vig at all. I think he is Mafia and claimed to be the Vig when the pressure was on him. The real Vig believes BM to be the Serial Killer, but sees no reason to make a public counterclaim. (Why would he, when BM is constrained to do the town's bidding and the Vig would likely become the Mafia's target if he outed himself?)

I believe that the Mafia killed Winston Smith last night, after persuading the town to think it was their choice; the real Vig tried to kill Blaster Master and was blocked by the Doctor; and the Serial Killer killed nesta.

Could I be wrong? Yup. Perhaps BM is exactly who he says he is, and was genuinely persuaded of Winston Smith's guilt. Regardless, BM has an absolutely terrible track record of guessing who's guilty and who's not; two of his top three choices on his scum list (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8422376&postcount=1085) have been revealed as townies, and another person on his list (Pleonast) is almost certainly a townie too. I imagine the Mafia was thrilled when he posted that list, and more than happy to steer the voting toward the "safe" targets of Gadarene and Winston Smith. That's why I'm proposing that we ask Blaster Master to kill one of the people whom I believe influenced those votes -- if he's really the Vig, we get a fair shot at bagging a Mafia member, and if he's Mafia, the Mafia will have to either kill one of their own or blow BM's cover.

Aguecheek

04-07-2007, 10:23 AM

Just checking in to state that I'm still here, and my vote currently still stands (Cheers, MonkeyMensch, that was classy. Yer a real mensch!).

I probably won't be able to read this through until late tonight or tomorrow morning.

Hockey Monkey

04-07-2007, 10:50 AM

Hockey Monkey

04-07-2007, 10:56 AM

Hockey Monkey

04-07-2007, 11:38 AM

And as far as storyteller's analysis of me, I addressed most of it in this post. (http://http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8438407&postcount=1890)

Crap, my link didn't work. Try again. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8438407&postcount=1890) Incidently, it's the same post you thought I didn't address storyteller in, and I thought I did. If anyone else has any questions, I'll try to oblidge, but I seem to have a track record now of not being able to make myself very clear. :( I don't really have the time or resources to commit to this game that it seems to require.

I know I'm not Mafia, and the Mafia know I'm not Mafia.

NAF1138

04-07-2007, 12:52 PM

Auto, I don't know what I am going to do about you yet. Your edit and apology came withing a minute of your actual post, and I DO believe that your edit was just fixing the coding. But rules are rules, and you knew the rules. I need to think about this some more. You may wake up tomorrow dead.

NAF1138

04-07-2007, 12:56 PM

4- JSexto - (FCoD, Suburban Plankton, Rysto, sturmhauke)
2- MonkeyMensch - (Aguecheek, hocow)
2- pimaspinner - (Lakai, Storyteller0910)
2- Suburban Plankton - (StarvingButStrong, JSexton)
1- Fern Forest - (brewha)
1- kivvik - (Fretful Porpentine)
1- MadTheSwine - (Autolycus)

BTW the day will end at 5pm PST Monday

Queuing

04-07-2007, 01:13 PM

Guess I misunderstood it...seemed worded funny.

SK should be killed ASAP.

Maybe you did understand it correctly. IMO the SK should not be killed tonight. I explained why here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8438596&postcount=1899) . Do you disagree with that?

Our only goal today and tonight should be 2 mafia scum.

StarvingButStrong

04-07-2007, 01:26 PM

Our only goal today and tonight should be 2 mafia scum.

Exactly.

There have been several posts that start out saying they agree ...and then somehow twist around to calling for the death of SK or Vig or whatever.

Given how far behind the town is -- what is it, 8 dead town, 1 dead scum? -- it seems so obvious to me that trying to catch up is of primary importance that I just don't see how a townie can not see that.

At present there are votes against seven people, and I think they are mostly ones who WEREN'T being targeted Day Two. Do you suppose that we are actually sticking pins into multiple scum, and that's why were seeing the 'kill the sk/vig' posts? Yesterday's targets seem to have been mainly wrong, so the scum could smile as we got two kills in. If, oh, 5 of the 7 targeted so far are in fact scum, they might be feeling a bit of panic, yes?

Rysto

04-07-2007, 01:38 PM

The problems with not getting the SK early are:

-we have to be sure that we've nailed 2 scum every day. Our track record argues against this
-the vote for the Vig kill doesn't have the benefit of the information of the outcome of the lynch kill
-with the SK in play, we have only one Doctor but 2 Townies potentially being targeted each night. With the SK dead, the Doctor can focus on stopping the Mafia
-In Day 2, voting for the Vig kill was an absolute mess. Confusion benefits the Mafia, who can more easily manipulate the voting when no one's quite sure what's going on
-a short game benefits the Mafia a lot more than the Town. They have way more information than we do, and we can only make up that difference through the information we gain through lynches.

MadTheSwine

04-07-2007, 01:56 PM

Maybe you did understand it correctly. IMO the SK should not be killed tonight. I explained why here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8438596&postcount=1899) . Do you disagree with that?

Our only goal today and tonight should be 2 mafia scum.

I do disagree...the SK,as well as VIG are hurting us.If they are both neutralized then we are on a kill for kill basis against the mafia.Since we outnumber the mafia by quite a bit this can only help us. I cant see having a possible three town die every night.

Fern Forest

04-07-2007, 01:57 PM

Huh?
If the day opens and their are 5 mafia, 5 town and a SK I believe that rather then letter a town member swing and lose the game for them a single mafia member will come forward as a sacrifice to prevent the loss and allow the mob more time to find the SK and a chance at a win for the mafia team. The actual numbers will be different but the mafia will know when they are about to take a majority and so can prevent it until they are ready. We the town have no such luxury, only when the last mobster is dead will we find out that we lost if the SK is still alive. Our ignorance is the SK's only hope.

Fern Forest

04-07-2007, 02:15 PM

MonkeyMensch

04-07-2007, 02:52 PM

Hi y'all.

This thread is just so much more readable it's actually fun to pore over for clues and tells.

I'm going to peruse more tonight but for now, in no particular order, it's:

Queuing, for his de-emphasis of the importance of an SK kill. I read his reasoning and it sort of hangs together, but I just disagree with the conclusion. At least Blaster Master is acting with our advice in the open and with some discussion. The fewer deaths the better the sooner. Kills from the SK are wild cards and are biased aginst us just on probability, if not from the SK's motives.

Smitty: That low post count is starting to get to me. I'd like to hear from you. Whatcha been up to?

JSexton: He has the suspicion of Blaster Master being the SK. If you no longer hold this theory by all means tell me. But it seems like the real Vig would've killed him during the test night, barring a Doctor's umbrella. At any rate, I like your posts and if you have a new summation coming anytime soon I look forward to it.

The trouble, for me, is that I have a real hard time getting my suspicion levels up to anything over about 40%. There are others who willing to bet their game lives on other's identities and such, but unless I'm missing something I dont' see where this confidence is coming from.

Vote Queuing

hocow

04-07-2007, 02:55 PM

Wow, the SK must be having a field day watching me take the flak for him/her.

Guys, I am not the SK, and the whole reasoning behind the acusations seem to be that Blaster Master said so. At least he gave his own thoughts about why he believes me to be scum. Can I ask the same of the rest of you so that I may explain myself, if needed?

I do disagree...the SK,as well as VIG are hurting us.If they are both neutralized then we are on a kill for kill basis against the mafia.Since we outnumber the mafia by quite a bit this can only help us. I cant see having a possible three town die every night.

This is exactly my line of thought. I think it would be better if we only had to worry about one townie being killed every night as opposed to potentially three.

Auto pointed out that the SK doesn't have to kill at night, so blocking who the town believes to be the SK wouldn't prove a damn thing. Block me all you want, the real SK can just choose not to kill. Then, I would be dead, you guys would see that you're wrong, and then you'd have to fish out the actual SK. I don't even know who else to implicate for that role besides Blaster, for reasons I have already stated.

Autolycus

04-07-2007, 03:17 PM

Great, now I's got the town god angry at me too. I'm sorry. Save me Jebus :(

Hockey Monkey

04-07-2007, 03:52 PM

I agree that the SK needs to be taken out, but that as a priority, it can wait for now. However, I don't have a problem with suggesting to Blaster Master who he should kill during the night. Today we do need to be concentrating on who we think is scum and should be lynched for it.

glee, to answer your question about why I have my suspicions about you. You didn't ping my radar until you wanted to lynch chrisk/Jsexton. You said "we should get something interesting." In post #890 (http://http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418578&postcount=890), I pointed out that it would be hard to get anything interesting because Jsexton had not posted anything yet, and I didn't feel we would benefit from anything chrisk had said. (glee's original post quoted in mine).

In post # 1078 (http://http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8422262&postcount=1078) I said to look at the people who had single votes against them at the time and see who was voting for them. You were one of those voters. I expected at least two of them to jump ship when the saw which way the wind was going to blow, which you did, and I pointed out in post #1216 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8423947&postcount=1216).

vote glee

Rysto

04-07-2007, 04:07 PM

Yeah, I wouldn't read much into this except that I am not so bright. As my post hopefully made clear, my intention at the time was to

Unvote FCoD
Vote pimaspinner
Hang on. When did you intend to do this? When you first FOS'ed pimaspinner in this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8434473&postcount=1787)?

Malacandra

04-07-2007, 04:07 PM

Great, now I's got the town god angry at me too. I'm sorry. Save me Jebus :(

Bah. I feel guilty for using up what seems to have been the one permitted fuck-up. Sorry Auto. :(

Autolycus

04-07-2007, 04:11 PM

Bah. I feel guilty for using up what seems to have been the one permitted fuck-up. Sorry Auto. :(

Eh, I's lived a good life. No worries mate :)

kivvik

04-07-2007, 04:34 PM

Exactly.

There have been several posts that start out saying they agree ...and then somehow twist around to calling for the death of SK or Vig or whatever.

Given how far behind the town is -- what is it, 8 dead town, 1 dead scum? -- it seems so obvious to me that trying to catch up is of primary importance that I just don't see how a townie can not see that.

At present there are votes against seven people, and I think they are mostly ones who WEREN'T being targeted Day Two. Do you suppose that we are actually sticking pins into multiple scum, and that's why were seeing the 'kill the sk/vig' posts? Yesterday's targets seem to have been mainly wrong, so the scum could smile as we got two kills in. If, oh, 5 of the 7 targeted so far are in fact scum, they might be feeling a bit of panic, yes?

Given the odds there's most likely some scum on the list yes, but I disagree that it's why we're seeing all of the discussion on the Vig/Sk. It's the first day after a town-directed Vig kill, but there were only two deaths last night for wahtever reason. If we assume that the Mafia pulled off a fairly complex song and dance routine yesterday, then they could have killed Winston with the SK killing nesta. Or it could have gone to the town's plan and the Vig got Winston. Much of the talk now is whether it is worth the risk of keeping the Vig/SK engine going. We cannot prove that Blaster Master was Winston's killer. (See posts by Fretful Porpentine) It is much more likely that he is though. I don't think anyone could have seen the outcome of Day 2 beforehand even with a plan going in. With the right choice of targets, tonight would likely be able to tell us the truth about the Vig. I don't recall if NAF ever ruled on whether the Mafia can kill themselves or not, so if we can manage to pinpoint a Mafia target, BM can show his true colors.

Unless the BM-led Mafia killed Winston, the real Vig killed nesta and the SK either twiddled their thumbs or swung at a protected target. Regardless, -if- we can get agreed upon targets that have at least a high likelihood of being scum, then we should let BM have his second night. If we -cannot- find such viable looking targets, we might want to go ahead and look for a way to dismantle the killing machine. Or we can let it run and hope that the SK is listening and trying to take out Mafia to go for a town win, and may have in fact already started working on that idea.

Oh, and Fretful Porpentine, I proposed Winston for the kill because he was batshit crazy at the time and demanding the blood of our Masons. Scum may have pushed him as a sacrifice, but I did not. Just as a choice. glee had no bearing on my thoughts then, or now. Only thing between me and glee is this post here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8419954&postcount=943) where they dump on my Autolycus Theory, but I hold no real grudge against them. Autolycus was pretty controversial then, although he seems to be less so now, edit issue aside. zuma also made mock of my idea, but that itself ended up helping to shape the Theory as more information came about.

And uh, I vote NAF doesn't WTFpwn Autolycus. Which is like praying to a god, but hey, you never know :p

Queuing

04-07-2007, 04:56 PM

For the record, I did not say that we should not kill the SK. I said we should not be worried about it TONIGHT, and we should worry about it tomorrow. What we need is 2 scum dead by day break tomorrow. This will bring them down to 6, a much more manageable number, and one which it would be difficult for them to attempt to bandwagon a townie from.

Tonight, and only tonight, we should not worry about who the SK.

Just saying "we need the SK dead because they are killing people" is, IMO, not good enough. We still have odds in our favour. 28 people left, 19 of whom are town aligned. The SK only knows who they are, leaving 27 people to kill. Since the SK is just as knowledgeable about roles as a vanilla citizen, who knows who they will get tonight? It has been shown, most likely, that the SK killed the only scum to have been killed so far. Who knows what they will get tonight?

If we get 2 scum, they will be down to 6. If the SK gets one of us, and the scum do as well, we will be at 17. Not the end of the world, particularly when we still have power roels and millers who might as well block Hocow. Who for no good reason as far as I can tell (well beyond the questionable reasoning of BM) is our #1 suspect.

If you read my whole post, I suggested leaving the killing apparatus as it is tonight. Changing it tomorrow. And the day after that having roles proclaim, give us the evidence they have, and we lynch lynch lynch. This will give us the win.

IMO we are just wasting time, and confusing the issue with this worry about the SK. However I won't bother saying anything more on the issue, as I don't want to lead another day to hell.

I too would like to hear from Smitty.

I to would suggest no killing of Autolycus. This one time. Anybody else does it though...

MonkeyMensch

04-07-2007, 05:42 PM

Thanks Queuing for the clarification. Like I said, I am still considering.

Aguecheek

04-07-2007, 06:06 PM

Back for about 1/2 an hour, then gone again.

What we need is 2 scum dead by day break tomorrow. This will bring them down to 6, a much more manageable number, and one which it would be difficult for them to attempt to bandwagon a townie from. <snip> If we get 2 scum, they will be down to 6.You seem pretty sure of those numbers. :dubious:

We still have odds in our favour. 28 people left, 19 of whom are town aligned. The SK only knows who they are, leaving 27 people to kill.That'd be 27 people to kill if the SK had to kill everyone. The SK doesn't need to kill everyone. Just has to be left at the end.

Kat

04-07-2007, 09:02 PM

So why on earth did Kat trust her?

Partly because she was giving sensible advice: "we should be careful not to get a bandwagon rolling too early, since that only benefits the mafia." (and she turned out to be right about that, despite being Mafia, even!) And partly because she was one of few people who hadn't said something suspicious already (and that was a damn short list).

Fretful Porpentine

04-07-2007, 09:08 PM

Kat

04-07-2007, 09:29 PM

It might hold true once!

StarvingButStrong

04-07-2007, 09:30 PM

Perhaps it's time to put the "good analysis (or worse yet, analysis I agree with) = town" / "bad analysis or analysis I don't agree with = Mafia" myth to rest for good? Because I'm beginning to wonder if it EVER holds true...

But what else do we have to go on, in separating sheep from goats?

Townies, presumably, will be posting honestly about their ideas. Meaning that they will really believe what they say makes sense and is helpful. Mafia will be posting dishonestly, doing their damnedest to make ideas that they know to be untrue SEEM to be true. All readers can do is listen to both the words AND music of the post. Are the ideas in this post just mistaken, or both mistaken and deceitful?

Fretful Porpentine

04-07-2007, 09:41 PM

Are the ideas in this post just mistaken, or both mistaken and deceitful?
If you're confident you can tell the difference, you're a lot smarter than I am. And what about the situations where we don't even know if the post is mistaken or not? I keep seeing people saying things like "I trust / distrust this person because his or her ideas are / are not similar to mine," when they're not even in a position to ascertain whether their own theories are correct, and that doesn't seem to make sense.

And as for what else we've got to go on -- well, we've got two days' worth of voting records, resulting in two lynches and one nightime kill of innocent people, which ought to tell us something. (Is anybody updating those spreadsheets, by the way? They looked really useful, but they seem to have fallen by the wayside during the chaos that was Day 2.)

Queuing

04-07-2007, 10:16 PM

Back for about 1/2 an hour, then gone again.

You seem pretty sure of those numbers. :dubious:

Umm, yeah I am. In that realistically the number of mafia would have been 9, we have 1 killed so far, which leaves 8, you minus 2 and that equals 6.

That'd be 27 people to kill if the SK had to kill everyone. The SK doesn't need to kill everyone. Just has to be left at the end.

I won't bother with this part, as I said I won't bother with any more defense of not worrying about the SK tonight.

Queuing

04-07-2007, 10:19 PM

(Is anybody updating those spreadsheets, by the way? They looked really useful, but they seem to have fallen by the wayside during the chaos that was Day 2.)

Well I have a doc that has a number of the votes on it. I don't promise day 2 as being accurate. In fact I know it isn't. Here it is if you find it helpful:

DAY 1 votes

8 votes- Enfant Terrible (ArizonaTeach, BlasterMaster, FCOD, Gadarene, Malacandra, Pleonast, Storyteller0910, pimaspinner, cowgirl, Winston Smith)
4 votes -Sturmhauke – (Queuing, , CaerieD, Aguecheek, Fernforest)
Unvoted: (Menecchio)
4 votes - Queuing - Lakai, Fretful Porpentine, Zuma, Menecchio
2 votes -glee - Smitty, Suburban Plankton
2 votes -Autolycus – (Enfant Terrible, glee)
Unvoted him ( FCOD, Gadarene, malacandra)
1 vote - Chrisk - MadTheSwine
1 vote- Aguecheek – Sturmhauke
1 vote - Gadarene – Rysto

Day 2 Votes

4 -Blaster Master – (Me, Gadarene (again), pimaspinner, hocow, brewha, pygmy rugger, ArizonaTeach, Winston, Aguacheek, Lakia)
Unvote – (gadarene, brewha, queuing, Arizona teach, primaspinner, Aguacheek)
7 - Queuing – (menecchio, Zuma (again), starving but strong, nesta, kivvik, pleonast, brewha, glee, Winston)
Unvote – Menechio, Zuma, nesta
6 - Pleonast – (Lakia , Kat, suburban plankton, mad the swine, Fernforest, fretfulporcupine, gadarene, queuing, Gadarene, Pima, pygmy)
Unvote – (Lakia, MadtheSwine, gadarene, SB)
5 -Gadarene – (Fern Forest, Chrisk (after unvote), smitty, Blaster Master, Nesta, Arizona teach, sturmhauke,malacandra)
(Unvote- Fern Forest, chrisk)
3 - PygmyRunner – (Zuma, madtheswine, menecchio,)
Unvote - Zuma
1 -Chrisk – (Rysto, FCOD, Kat, PygmyRugger, arizonateach, Lakia (after unvote), Winston, glee
Unvote –( Kat, Rysto, Lakia, FCOD, arizona, winston, glee, pygmy rugger)
1 - Rysto – (sturmhauke
-UNVOte - -(Sturm)
1 - Hocow – (Malacandra)
1 – Menecchio – (Autocylus)
0 – Aguecheek – (Monekymensch)
Unvote – (Monkeymensch)
0 - FCOD – (fretful porcupine, storyteller)
Unvote – (Fretful, storyteller)
0 -Brewha – (fernforest, Monkeymensch)
Unvoted – fernforest, Monkemensch
0 - Fernforest – (Winston)
(Unvote – Winston)
0- Autocylus – (Chrisk, menecchio
Unvote – (Chrisk, menecchio
0 -Nesta – (sturmhauke, )
Unvote -sturm

Day 3 votes

2 - Suburban plankton – (starvingbutstrong, Jsexton, autolycus
Unvote – (autolycu
4 -JSexton – (Zuma, FCOD, suburban plankton, fretful, rysto, sturmhauke
Unvoyte – (zuma, Fretful
2 - Pimaspinner – (Lakai, pygmy rugger, story
Unvote – (pygmy
2 –MonkeyMensch - (Aguecheek, MTS, hocow
Unvote – (MTS
1 - Fernforest – (brewha
1 - Kivvik – (fretful
1 – Sturmhauke – (fernforest)
1 - Queuing – (Monkey
1 – Glee – (pimaspinner
1 – MTS – (Autolycus
0 - FCOD – (Storyteller
Unvote – (storyteller
0 – Ryston – (Pimaspinner
Unvote - Pima
0 -PygmyRugger – (MadTheSwine
Unovte – (MTS

MonkeyMensch

04-07-2007, 11:25 PM

Unvote queuing.

NAF1138

04-08-2007, 12:06 AM

Auto I have given it some thought and have decided not to mod kill you, frankly I don't think that it would be fair. But don't do it again! That goes for everyone. I know everybody slips up, but do try to play within the rules. The no edit rule is in place because peoples posts are all anyone has to go on in this game, and the ability to edit undermines the game itself.

NO MORE EDITING.

sturmhauke

04-08-2007, 12:21 AM

I'm actually going to use the math that got me my first serious vote. The numbers may be slightly changed because I've included the SK in the scum count.

I do think Menocchio is safe as the crumb. I feel quite confortable calling Rysto town. Therefore out of these 5 players (hocow, Kat, MadTheSwine, Sturmhauke, Suburban Plankton) the most likely scum percentage is 57%. In otherwords 2 or 3 of those are probably scum.

While I was originally satisfied with Sturmhauke's responses to the accusations against him on the first day they weren't nearly as good as Gadarene's and I've soured on it since then. From reading chrisk's posts from the werwolf's forbidden thread over into this one I felt he stayed on the same course strongly indicating to me that he had no special role. So I think Sturmhauke may be going after JSexton because he sees a chink in his armor and hopes to bring down a town member who others may have also thought had acted suspiciously making the defence when he turns up town easier.

I vote Sturmhauke. [color tags removed]
You've made an awful lot of assumptions on your way to that vote. First you assume that Menocchio is a townie. Granted, it's a very strong possibility, and I agree with you. However, the only confirmed townie who could tell us is dead. Next you assume Rysto is town. I tentatively agree, but there's no solid evidence there. And then you assume that the ratio of scum in your list is identical to the ratio in the game as a whole. While this is more likely than not, it's nowhere near a certainty.

I did a quick readthrough of last game's commentary thread, but I really don't see how you're inferring chrisk's role here from his posts there. You want to elaborate on that?

Regarding the editing of posts, I don't think it's a good idea to remove people from the game for it. Editing your post for deceitful purposes is already frowned upon by Board rules; anyone fool enough to try some edit trickery for the sake of a game risks the wrath of the Royal Cecilian Mounted Police.

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 12:54 AM

You've made an awful lot of assumptions on your way to that vote. First you assume that Menocchio is a townie. Granted, it's a very strong possibility, and I agree with you. However, the only confirmed townie who could tell us is dead. Next you assume Rysto is town. I tentatively agree, but there's no solid evidence there. And then you assume that the ratio of scum in your list is identical to the ratio in the game as a whole. While this is more likely than not, it's nowhere near a certainty.True, very true. But with the people I felt most suspicious about I don't have anything else. I felt I had to cobble together a vote and this is what I came up with. What can I say, we're down a queen and I've decided to push my pawn upboard.

I did a quick readthrough of last game's commentary thread, but I really don't see how you're inferring chrisk's role here from his posts there. You want to elaborate on that?We look with different eyes. What helped me feel this way from the get go was his enthusiasm. Were he to have any role other then vanilla townie I feel that he would have behaved differently in this thread. Because he was (IMHO) a vanilla townie he was able to jump in with both feet and not have to worry about consequences.

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 12:56 AM

I missed a bit there.

... But with the people I felt most suspicious about turning out to be townies with power roles ...

Autolycus

04-08-2007, 01:59 AM

zuma

04-08-2007, 08:56 AM

Vote: Pimaspinner

I liked storeyteller's analysis, and the insistance that Blaster Master was the breadcrumb rubs me the wrong way.

Pima and JSexton are pinging my scumdar the most at this point. My anaysis (like just about everyone here) has been pretty bad up until now, but I think we have to choose a target somewhat soon.

StarvingButStrong

04-08-2007, 09:25 AM

I've thought of a new tactic! Those of you who read CS might have noticed I durrenly have MASSIVE QUANTITIES of pecorino romano.

And we all know that the Mafia likes italian food, yes?

So -- I hearby offer to send a goodly chunk of said cheese to the first Mafioso who stands up and confesses!

(Status must be confirmed post-lynch)

C'mon. You know you want to confess. It's good for the soul, and now it's good for the tummy!

StarvingButStrong

04-08-2007, 09:26 AM

For those confused, 'durrenly' = 'currently'

And I even previewed, how pathetic. :o

storyteller0910

04-08-2007, 10:50 AM

Hang on. When did you intend to do this? When you first FOS'ed pimaspinner in this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8434473&postcount=1787)?

No. The second time, here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8436922&postcount=1864) - after I'd had a chance to review her work so far.

Sorry for the confusion.

Incidentally, I unvoted FCoD last time around in order to vote for pima, but wasn't thrilled with it because I believe that they're both scum. I had forgotten that I have a second voting option. Accordingly, my lynch vote remains with pimaspinner but I would also like to cast a vote to:

Vig kill FlyingCowofDoom

Queuing

04-08-2007, 11:29 AM

It seems the main vote getters are JSexton, and Pimaspinner. I have read all of the analysis in this thread, and I agree that those 2 could very well be scum. FCOD seems like a possibility as well. I still don't trust Aguecheek, MTS, or MonkeyMensch, but I am unsure if we have enough to go on to lynch them right now.

Lynch Pimaspinner

assassinate FCOD

And now I have to go do easter things. I may be able to check later tonight, if not, well that is what work is for right? Playing this game?

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 02:48 PM

So we only have a little less the 29 hours to decide right? I thought that pimaspinner was on the opposite side of Blaster Master but if he was the VG then that might have explained it. I'll be changing my vote in a few hours then.

glee

04-08-2007, 04:04 PM

Sorry I haven't posted recently - I had guests for the weekend.

I am finding the sheer mass of the thread somewhat daunting, but here are some ideas:

- I agree that the Serial Killer is a huge worry for the Mafia if the SK is still at large when the Town / Mafia numbers are nearly equal (the Mafia may have to sacrifice one of their own). However we haven't reached that point yet.

- I would like to see somebody make a defence against being lynched (no, I am not volunteering, though I do have a defence!); I find the Town get more information that way. We can also then change our minds (or put in a conditional for the Vig).
In order to achieve that, we need suggestion for a lynching. I know that Zuma and Pleonast are reluctant to suggest names, but they can avoid naming fellow Masons and I therefore ask them to start the ball rolling.
We do need to move things along, so there is time for a 'lynching defence', analysis of said defence and changing of minds...

- for what it's worth, I think having 10 Mafia at the start (equal to the number needed for a lynch) is too powerful, so I expect there were 9 Mafia, plus the SK.

- I think ordinary Citizens should provide decent food for thought in the thread and consider it an honour if the Mafia kill them (since a named Townie is thereby 'saved')

glee, to answer your question about why I have my suspicions about you. You didn't ping my radar until you wanted to lynch chrisk/Jsexton. You said "we should get something interesting." In post #890, I pointed out that it would be hard to get anything interesting because Jsexton had not posted anything yet, and I didn't feel we would benefit from anything chrisk had said. (glee's original post quoted in mine).
In post # 1078 I said to look at the people who had single votes against them at the time and see who was voting for them. You were one of those voters. I expected at least two of them to jump ship when the saw which way the wind was going to blow, which you did, and I pointed out in post #1216.

Fair enough - you've put some thought into that.
The reason I cast suspicion on ChrisK was that he was premature in suggesting lists (and sadly it contributed to us losing the Detective, which is a massive blow for the Town). I know JSexton was new, but I thought he would have something interesting to say, whether Town or Mafia.
As for switching my vote from ChrisK to another (referred to in your post 1078), I did so along with: Kat, Rysto, Lakia, FCOD, arizona, winston, and pygmy rugger.
(I actually voted for pygmy rugger, if that means anything.)

glee

04-08-2007, 04:15 PM

Pima and JSexton are pinging my scumdar the most at this point. My anaysis (like just about everyone here) has been pretty bad up until now, but I think we have to choose a target somewhat soon.

Having asked for Masonic advice, I will follow it.

Lynch Pimaspinner

Vig kills JSexton

Kat

04-08-2007, 05:19 PM

Okay, I'm only up to page 30 of rereading the thread again again, but I think I have enough evidence to back up my vote for the day.

Vote pimaspinner

Based on:
-FoSed Enfant Terrible early, but waited to vote until there were already 7 votes on him
-FoSed FCoD early and often, but has not voted for him as of page 30
-the continuing assertions that Blaster Master was (not "might be" but "was") CaerieD's breadcrumb
-The entire uselessness of post 847 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8418155&postcount=847) - it looks like an attempt to be helpful, but almost all the entries boil down to "I don't know" and no information (like vote counts, quotes or links) that might make the post useful are included. Yeah, yeah, I know someone has brought up the "bad analysis does not equal scum" but that wasn't just "bad analysis".

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 05:24 PM

Hmm, looks like the most likely to go up today are JSexton or pimaspinner.

unvote sturmhauke
vote pimaspinner

I would suggest that the SK and VG attack someone among the 5 that I mentioned earlier as I do think there's a higher scum content there then with players at large. Outside of them the only other minor suspicion I had was brewha who I voted for yesterday (albeit briefly) and who voted for me today. I'm happy to leave it up to them although I'm definitely in that minority but I've made my say.

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 05:37 PM

... I do think ...
Well that's too strong. I do believe the possibility is worth pursuing.

Hockey Monkey

04-08-2007, 05:44 PM

This day ends at 12 noon on Monday, and I now have 7 votes against me. I don’t know if I will have time to get back to do this before the lynch deadline, and I want to give everybody time to process the info. I don’t want to die before explaining what I did to avoid the confusion that occurred after our Detective died.

Yup, I’m a copper. I don’t know if I’m the only one or not. I feel like I’ve been playing the game amazingly bad as I’ve said before. One of the things that brought a little bit of suspicion on myself pretty early on was my questioning of CaerieD’s breadcrumb. Here. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8415741#post8415741) And here. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8415961#post8415961) And here. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8416113#post8416113) I questioned it because that’s not how I did it! It makes sense that all the night roles on the first night would have targeted a previous player. But I didn’t, so that reasoning didn’t enter my brain until storyteller pointed it out. I conceded the point here. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8418406#post8418406) And again here. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8420734#post8420734)

On night one, I investigated FlyingCowOfDoom. I was told he was mafia. OK, so I’m supposed to be wrong 50% of the time, so I didn’t put much credence to it. What are the chances that I would ping mafia on the first night? Night two, I investigated him again. Mafia. Again. OK, so according to Blaster Master’s Beat Cop Breakdown, I can be almost sure now that he is mafia. So I have been operating on that assumption. Watching everything that FCOD does, and seeing who he seems to align himself with. The problem with FCOD is that he hasn’t done anything to make many people be suspicious of him. I’ve tried to lay my breadcrumbs down. He even wondered what he did to make me sooooo suspicious.

Crumb. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8406333&postcount=332) Crumb. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407688&postcount=387) Crumb. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8408817&postcount=475) Crumb. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414585&postcount=623) Crumb. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8414635&postcount=629)

I kind of backed off the crumb laying then here, (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8418155#post8418155) and tucked him into my pocket to use later. I’m not going to try to railroad anybody without evidence I can put forth without outing myself now am I? If you go back and look at a lot of FCOD’s posts in Day 2, they are vote counts or corrections to vote counts. Trying to make himself look like a contributor. Now he has a few votes against him, so a few other people are starting to suspect him. He could be a miller, because millers show up as scum if investigated, but I don’t know how that works out in the probabilities. Unless FCOD role-claims to be a miller, he’s scum. Even if he does claim miller, I’m still going to wonder.

At first I thought Blaster Master might be a beat cop too, because he was spending a lot of time analyzing the role. At one point, I posted that I thought the beat cop role could not possibly be a power role, here. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8407656&postcount=383) I didn’t want the Mafia to think I was a cop and kill me before I had a chance to investigate. I thought I might have pushed a little too hard in the FCOD breadcrumb laying. Day two lasted so so so long, I just wanted it to be night so I could investigate someone else. When Blaster Master claimed, he laid out a list of people to look at who voted for him. My name was absent from that list, and I was right in the fray to lynch him. Thank goodness we didn’t. I’m guessing that BM suspected me to be a cop.

Night 3, I decided to try and confirm Blaster Master rather than take a wild ass shot in the dark. Found out he really is the Vigilante. I’m working on the assumption that if I had chosen the wrong answer on that one, the chances of it being his role claim would be fairly slim. I don’t feel like another investigation of Blaster Master will be warranted.

I realize this role is not very reliable, and my information could very well be wrong, but with the answers I got when I investigated, I think they are right. If someone better at math than me wants to analyze them, please feel free. I’ll be confirmed when I die, so if you guys want to lynch me, I’m OK with that. Like I said, I just wanted you all to know what I was thinking when I put down my crumbs to avoid any confusion like last time. If anyone has any questions that I didn’t address here, please ask. If I make it to night, I will probably be mafia killed. I don’t want the Doctor to use his protection on me. I feel like Blaster Master is a more valuable asset than I am.

Unvote glee
Vote FlyingCowofDoom

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 06:00 PM

I'll buy it on my previous realization that the people who act the most suspiciously are power role townies. It must be something about trying to let some people in on your secret but not others.

unvote pimaspinner

Are you willing to put your life on the line for a possible trade off if FCOD turns outtown?

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 06:04 PM

zuma

04-08-2007, 06:13 PM

Unvote: pimaspinner

Kat

04-08-2007, 06:17 PM

God hates me. I think my strategy from now on should be to put the people that I find most suspicious into the Town column.

Unvote pimaspinner

Even with 2 investigations by the beat cop, there's still a small chance FCoD isn't Mafia. Can Pleonast or zuma at least confirm he's not Mason?

Now I have to read the goddamn thread again.

Fretful Porpentine

04-08-2007, 06:26 PM

Well, I think my "Blaster Master is at the heart of a Mafia conspiracy" theory no longer has legs, unless pimaspinner is making the whole thing up, so I'm going to unvote kivvik and vote FlyingCowOfDoom.

glee

04-08-2007, 06:29 PM

On night one, I investigated FlyingCowOfDoom. I was told he was mafia. OK, so I’m supposed to be wrong 50% of the time, so I didn’t put much credence to it. What are the chances that I would ping mafia on the first night? Night two, I investigated him again. Mafia. Again. OK, so according to Blaster Master’s Beat Cop Breakdown, I can be almost sure now that he is mafia.

...

Night 3, I decided to try and confirm Blaster Master rather than take a wild ass shot in the dark. Found out he really is the Vigilante. I’m working on the assumption that if I had chosen the wrong answer on that one, the chances of it being his role claim would be fairly slim. I don’t feel like another investigation of Blaster Master will be warranted.

Unvote Pimaspinner
Lynch FlyingCowofDoom

If FlyingCowofDoom is not Mafia, Vig to kill Pimaspinner.
If FlyingCowofDoom is Mafia, Vig to kill JSexton.

P.S. Assuming Pimaspinner is a Beat Cop, the chances of getting an incorrect 'Mafia' read on FlyingCowofDoom twice* are (as someone helpfully pointed out earlier) about 7%. Therefore it's about 93% FlyingCowofDoom is Mafia.

**If the Beat Cop makes a 50% mistake, (and assuming there is a Miller) there are 7 choices (all but one from Citizen / Beat Cop / Detective / Vigilante / Doctor / Miller / Serial Killer / Mafia).
This first choice is 50% to be wrong.
The second time, the same wrong choice (50% chance) has to be multiplied by a 1 in 7 chance of getting exactly the same wrong read.

Rysto

04-08-2007, 06:32 PM

First of all, I disagree that the Doctor should protect BM. He should choose randomly between the two of you to keep the Mafia guessing. And if he's been protecting himself recently, well, I guess he has to choose randomly between the 3 of you.

Second, once the SK is dead, we don't need to worry about protecting BM. Getting rid of the SK quickly will make our Doctor's life much easier. Our Vig, BM, thinks that he has a bead on the SK, hocow. I say, let him try that out.

Third, it's possible that this is a clever ruse by the Mafia. It's even possible that BM is Mafia and is in on this. Perhaps we should lynch FCoD, and if he's scum, let BM pursue hocow. If FCoD is town, BM kills pimaspinner. On the other hand, if pimaspinner was merely unlucky instead of lying, then we're down another 2 townspeople, one of them a beat cop. Which leads to my next question:

Fourth, I have a question for NAF1138. Let's say that cowgirl was Town, and a beat cop investigated her, but lost their coin flip and got the wrong alignment(say Mafia). Suppose that beat cop investigates her again. If the beat cop again loses their coin flip and gets the wrong alignment, is your answer randomly determined again, or do you automatically give the same wrong answer you gave last time(ie Mafia)?

Hockey Monkey

04-08-2007, 06:33 PM

Are you willing to put your life on the line for a possible trade off if FCOD turns outtown?

Yes. Two investigations and Mafia both times. It is possible that he's a miller, because the beat cop role isn't always reliable. If he's town, I'll gladly go to the gallows with the regret that I wasn't more helpful.

Kat

04-08-2007, 06:34 PM

P.S. Assuming Pimaspinner is a Beat Cop, the chances of getting an incorrect 'Mafia' read on FlyingCowofDoom twice* are (as someone helpfully pointed out earlier) about 7%. Therefore it's about 93% FlyingCowofDoom is Mafia.

Wow, that small? I confess, I didn't remember the odds, because the math in those posts scared me.

I guess I'll vote FCoD then. If Pleonast or zuma do come in and say he's a Mason, I'll just go back to crying in the corner.

Rysto

04-08-2007, 06:34 PM

**If the Beat Cop makes a 50% mistake, (and assuming there is a Miller) there are 7 choices (all but one from Citizen / Beat Cop / Detective / Vigilante / Doctor / Miller / Serial Killer / Mafia).
Millers come back scum, so eliminate them. However, there is the possibility of a Guardian Angel, so your math is still correct.

Rysto

04-08-2007, 06:36 PM

Oh, good point. If Flying Cow of Doom is a Miller, night-kill hocow, not pimaspinner. No point in executing a Cop for a mistake they couldn't help but make.

Kat

04-08-2007, 06:37 PM

Oh, a question, too. Does pimaspinner want suggestions on future investigations? If so, should Pleonast and zuma give those, so she doesn't waste future investigations on Masons?

kivvik

04-08-2007, 06:37 PM

So we have another outing, damn. But it's nice to have a more solid feel that BM is indeed the Vig. But if we agree that FCOD is indeed Mafia, and they do not claim Miller, would not a lynching be better? It is supposed to give us more information than a Vigging, and that's what we need. I do not know what to do if they claim to be/are the Miller though. We cannot be sure if they are or not, and we certainly don't want to lynch them if so. We still have many hours to decide though, and should at least hold off on critical mass voting until we get non-mason confirmation, and a defense post from FCOD.

Also, if we agree Mafia and lynch, who gets the Vig? Time for another round of post-searching...

**If the Beat Cop makes a 50% mistake, (and assuming there is a Miller) there are 7 choices (all but one from Citizen / Beat Cop / Detective / Vigilante / Doctor / Miller / Serial Killer / Mafia).
This first choice is 50% to be wrong.
The second time, the same wrong choice (50% chance) has to be multiplied by a 1 in 7 chance of getting exactly the same wrong read. by glee

When the Beat Cop result lands on Godfather or Miller, they just get 'citizen' or 'Mafia', right? So it's similar to having (Beat Cop, Detective, Vigilante, Doctor, Guardian Angel*, Serial Killer, Citizen, Citizen(Godfather), Mafia, Mafia(Miller*) as the options?
*Assuming those roles are present.

Hockey Monkey

04-08-2007, 06:46 PM

Oh, a question, too. Does pimaspinner want suggestions on future investigations? If so, should Pleonast and zuma give those, so she doesn't waste future investigations on Masons?

This is a good idea provided I live through the night.

glee

04-08-2007, 06:59 PM

Oh, good point. If Flying Cow of Doom is a Miller, night-kill hocow, not pimaspinner. No point in executing a Cop for a mistake they couldn't help but make.

Thanks for pointing that out:

The Miller- The miller is a role blocker, they select a person each night to stop from using their role assignment. The Miller is pro town, but will show up as scum if investigated.

Sheesh - a Townie showing up as scum!

When the Beat Cop result lands on Godfather or Miller, they just get 'citizen' or 'Mafia', right? So it's similar to having (Beat Cop, Detective, Vigilante, Doctor, Guardian Angel*, Serial Killer, Citizen, Citizen(Godfather), Mafia, Mafia(Miller*) as the options?
*Assuming those roles are present.

It's just gone midnight in my time zone, but I agree with your statement. Maybe I can extend the maths a little.

Assume out of the 38 players there are:

8 regular Mafia
1 Godfather (but shows 'Citizen')
1* Miller (but shows 'Mafia')

1 Serial Killer

1 Detective
2 Beat Cops
1 Doctor
1 Vigilante
1 Guardian Angel
21 Citizens

*just a guess how many

So if a Beat Cop investigates a regular Mafia, there is a 50% chance that 'Mafia' will come back, when it is 89% likely it is a Mafia and an 11% chance it's the Miller.
After the same answer on the second investigation, it's 75% that a Mafia has been correctly identified.

Now if the Beat Cop investigates an innocent (or the Godfather), there's a 50% chance the 'correct innocent' answer comes back. In this case, depending how many Citizens are left (in the first couple of days it was about 17) it's 94% to actually be that innocent and 6% to be the Godfather.
The chance of an innocent coming back as a 'Mafia' is 50% the first time, but getting the same wrong answer the second time is 50% (wrong guess) times onlyabout 11% (choose anyone of 9 alternative answers), and the chances are therefore about 6% of an innocent being labelled wrongly.

MadTheSwine

04-08-2007, 06:59 PM

Also is this a case where FCOD should be a night kill for a VG while we pursue someone else who might be better hidden? I know some people didn't like that but I think it might work nicely here.

No way! You seem to be trying to save FCOD.That, among other posts of yours, has you high on my scum list. The most telling of which is when you invited Jsexton to fill in for chrisk.Which makes Jsexton scum also,along with Auto.

I vote FlyingCow
Vig Jsexton

After Jsexton is killed,I believe it will be clear that Fern is scum.

Menocchio

04-08-2007, 06:59 PM

God damn it, is there anyone in town who isn't a power role?
(and is it worse to lose even more vanilla townfolk or to have our our power roles uncovered)

Lynch FlyingCowofDoom

If FlyingCowofDoom is not Mafia, Vig to kill Pimaspinner.
If FlyingCowofDoom is Mafia, Vig to kill JSexton.

Before this revelation, I was about to vote for JSexton. I still feel I should lay out my case, since FCOD's death is pretty much a done deal at this point, and lynching Pima if FCOD is town is too obvious to waste time arguing about.

Let's start with chrisk. If chrisk didn't leave, he should have been lynched (I was about to say "would have", but no strategy is too obviously correct for this group :smack: ). He was caught in a big lie, supporting a flawed strategy that he admitted to work to the scum's advantage. chris' departure left me and others with the impression of a despondant innocent, but perhaps we shouldn't read anything into it. Now, JSexton can't be called on to defend chrisk, but the fact remains that he inherited the role. We gave him time to play the game as himself, but he's stepped up into a spot as prime scum suspect.

Why did he out BM as the SK? Why didn't him initial accusatory post even consider the possibility that BM was the vigilante? JSexton is likely our most seasoned player, surely he must have realized the possibility?

Because calling Blaster Master the SK made it more likely that he'd lynch him, and beyond that it didn't matter. As has been pointed out, it behooves the SK to play pro-town, and JS must have known that. The mafia wants the SK dead just as much as we do. Perhaps more so (not that this should stop us from killing the real SK, once identified). They also want the vigilante dead. While the vigilante is a double-edged sword for the town, we still can use him to our advantage. Even if he was totally off-base, at least JSexton knew he wasn't mafia, and was at the least a vanilla townsfolk. All possibilities work out to the mafia's favor.

JSexton, j'accuse!

glee

04-08-2007, 07:00 PM

No way! You seem to be trying to save FCOD.That, among other posts of yours, has you high on my scum list. The most telling of which is when you invited Jsexton to fill in for chrisk.Which makes Jsexton scum also,along with Auto.

I vote FlyingCow
Vig Jsexton

After Jsexton is killed,I believe it will be clear that Fern is scum.

And if FlyingCow is not Mafia, nor the Miller?

glee

04-08-2007, 07:05 PM

This is a good idea provided I live through the night.

Would some humour be appropriate?

Even if you avoid a lynching in this Town, there's always the Mafia, the Serial Killer or perhaps the Vigilante :eek: .

I think the Realtor who sold me a house here might have said something more explicit than "the night life is very exciting!"

For our UK readers only, this place should be called Midsomer :smack:

http://uk.imdb.com/title/tt0118401/

Menocchio

04-08-2007, 07:06 PM

Oops. Forgot about the possibility of a miller.

Amend my above to
If Flying Cow of Doom is scum OR miller, target JSexton

FCOD, if you are indeed the miller, your blocking history may prove useful. Please share it before your unfortunate demise.

Suburban Plankton

04-08-2007, 07:07 PM

I'm not sure what to think about this latest revelation. It seems that we have a predeliction for wanting to lynch "Power" Citizens.

Blaster Master: Vigilante
Pleonast: Mason
zuma: Mason
Now, pimaspinner: Beat Cop.

Can't we ever pick a "normal" Citizen? Or better yet, maybe, you know, Mafia?!?

Now the difference between this role-claim and the previous ones is that they were all ultimately verifiable; the Masons can vouch for each other, and the Vigilante can prove himself by killing the Serial Killer (he also has to deal with the possibility of a counter-claim if he is lying). This claim, on the other hand, cannot be indisputably verified except in death, when all secrets are revealed.

So what can we infer from this? Is he a scum, making this claim because all of the "good roles" have already been taken? Or is he telling the truth? So far, my hunches have been proven just as good as everyone else's, which is to say: not very. And at this point, I don't really have a gut feeling one way or the other.

On preview, I see that Flying Cow Of Doom has already picked up a couple of votes. Before this turns into a full-on bandwagon, I'd like to know why people are suspicious of FCOD, apart from "pimaspinner says so". storyteller0910 and Fretful Porcupine are the only people before just now to have voted for FCOD, and I don't recall a general consensus that he was scummy. I'd really hate for everyone to jump on board this bandwagon, lynch FCOD, and then find out that pimaspinner is Mafia making an unsubstantiated claim.

I'm not saying that pimaspinner is lying, just pointing out that we have no evidence one way or the other for pimaspinner's claim. If that is the only evidence we have against FCOD, I don't know if we should be too hasty. If there is other evidence, then it's a different story.

glee

04-08-2007, 07:10 PM

First a correction:

If FlyingCowofDoom is not Mafia or Miller, Vig to kill Pimaspinner.
If FlyingCowofDoom is Mafia, Vig to kill JSexton.

God damn it, is there anyone in town who isn't a power role?
(and is it worse to lose even more vanilla townfolk or to have our our power roles uncovered)

As per my previous posts, I think there were 21 Citizens to start with.
And I'm sure the power roles are much more important, so the Citizens should die bravely at the hands of the Mafia. :eek:

glee

04-08-2007, 07:15 PM