Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!) [Archive] - Page 9

Hockey Monkey

04-08-2007, 08:07 PM

First of all, I disagree that the Doctor should protect BM. He should choose randomly between the two of you to keep the Mafia guessing. And if he's been protecting himself recently, well, I guess he has to choose randomly between the 3 of you.

Second, once the SK is dead, we don't need to worry about protecting BM. Getting rid of the SK quickly will make our Doctor's life much easier. Our Vig, BM, thinks that he has a bead on the SK, hocow. I say, let him try that out.

Third, it's possible that this is a clever ruse by the Mafia. It's even possible that BM is Mafia and is in on this. Perhaps we should lynch FCoD, and if he's scum, let BM pursue hocow. If FCoD is town, BM kills pimaspinner. On the other hand, if pimaspinner was merely unlucky instead of lying, then we're down another 2 townspeople, one of them a beat cop. Which leads to my next question:

Fourth, I have a question for NAF1138. Let's say that cowgirl was Town, and a beat cop investigated her, but lost their coin flip and got the wrong alignment(say Mafia). Suppose that beat cop investigates her again. If the beat cop again loses their coin flip and gets the wrong alignment, is your answer randomly determined again, or do you automatically give the same wrong answer you gave last time(ie Mafia)?

Good point about the Doctor. I hadn't thought of that. By all means let's keep them guessing. I agree that the Vig target should be hocow. FCOD will either be Mafia or Miller, unless I was incredibly unlucky in my choice of coin flip. If it turns out he is really town, then by all means lynch me. My logic and strategery skills aren't good enough to try to make this up. Just trying to play a straight up game has been hard. :D It is my understanding that each time a person is investigated the answers are independent, and I don't automatically get the same wrong answer if I choose the wrong flip. I could investigate the same person 7 times and get 7 different answers. That I got the same answer 2 nights in a row leads me to believe they were right, and I can assume FCOD is either Mafia or Miller.

Fretful Porpentine

04-08-2007, 08:21 PM

Well, he did say "sane". ;)
I'd sort of forgotten about that episode in the last game, but yeah, I'm making the possibly unwarranted assumption that everybody is going to act in a rational manner to benefit their side, because anything else makes my brain hurt worse than it already does.

I'm a "she," by the way.

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 08:23 PM

No way! You seem to be trying to save FCOD.That, among other posts of yours, has you high on my scum list. The most telling of which is when you invited Jsexton to fill in for chrisk.Which makes Jsexton scum also,along with Auto.

I vote FlyingCow
Vig Jsexton
<color removed> FF

After Jsexton is killed,I believe it will be clear that Fern is scum.Well if you believe that either a possible miller or doc protection might save FCOD, or that Blaster Master might choose not to target who he gets told then I can see how you might believe that. I assume if we ask the VG to kill FCOD tonight death is certain.

The only problem I see with conditionals is that the person who gets voted to be killed over night wont know for certain that their death will occur tonight until the sun has set and we are no longer allowed to discuss any strategy. This might force an unneccessary claim.

Although with the choices tonight being JSexton and pimaspinner one who I'm pretty sure is vanilla and another who has already claimed I guess it's a moo point.

Lynch FCOD
Pun intended.

Queuing

04-08-2007, 08:31 PM

Well damn. Ok.

unvote pimaspinner
Lynch FCOD

And since FCOD was my vig kill target, ummm going to go with

Assassinate Suburban Plankton

Lakai

04-08-2007, 08:31 PM

Unvote Pimaspinner
Lynch FlyingCowofDoom

If FlyingCowofDoom is not Mafia, Vig to kill Pimaspinner.
If FlyingCowofDoom is Mafia or the miller, Vig to kill Malacandra.

What if FCD claims to be the Miller? Should we spare him? I think we shouldn't. Sure we are taking a gamble, but it is with better odds than we ever had before.

Why Vig kill Malacandra? Good question.

Check out post 1744 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8432497&postcount=1744). Read the exchange between hocow and Malacandra:

Originally Posted by hocow
But you still won't give any justification for your accusation?
Call it a hunch. My reluctance to explain further involves not exposing another player to harm. That could get me lynched, but I'm sitting tight and viewing that as a better outcome for the town. "Better" in the sense of the town lynching me could save a power role from getting scumkilled, you understand. And if my hunch is wrong, well, that happens.

The reasoning for Malacandra to be suspicious of hocow is too shady. What role could he have possibly picked up on that none of us have?

Queuing

04-08-2007, 08:33 PM

Day 3 votes

9 - FCOD – (Storyteller, fretful, glee, kat, MTS, menecchio, hocow, fernforest, queuing, lakai
Unvote – (storyteller
4 -JSexton – (Zuma, FCOD, suburban plankton, fretful, rysto, sturmhauke
Unvoyte – (zuma, Fretful
2 - Suburban plankton – (starvingbutstrong, Jsexton, autolycus
Unvote – (autolycus
2 –MonkeyMensch - (Aguecheek, MTS, hocow
Unvote – (MTS
1 - Pimaspinner – (Lakai, pygmy rugger, story, zuma, queuing, glee, kat
Unvote – (pygmy, fern, zuma, kat, glee, queuing, lakai
1 - Fernforest – (brewha
1 - Kivvik – (fretful
Unvote – (fretful
1 – Sturmhauke – (fernforest)
Unovte – (fernforest
1 – MTS – (Autolycus
0 - Queuing – (Monkey
Unvote – (monkey
0 – Glee – (pimaspinner
Unovte – (pima
0 – Ryston – (Pimaspinner
Unvote - Pima
0 -PygmyRugger – (MadTheSwine
Unovte – (MTS

Kat

04-08-2007, 09:11 PM

You need to close those parentheses, Queuing! (Sorry, but as a Punctuation Nazi, it drives me batty. ;) )

ArizonaTeach

04-08-2007, 09:22 PM

Hokey smokes. Ok, let's get the obvious out of the way:
vote FCOD.

However, FCOD voted to ice JSexton, so I'm not sure he's the best choice for the vig kill. Unfortunately, I have no suggestion for that...

Santo Rugger

04-08-2007, 09:27 PM

Might as well get the clock started, FCOD.

Lakai

04-08-2007, 09:43 PM

Hocow - Malacandra, Rysto
If FlyingCowOfDoom is Mafia or The Miller, kill JSexton. If FlyingCowOfDoom is not mafia, kill Pimaspinner - Glee, Menocchio
If FlyingCowOfDoom is Mafia or The Miller, kill hocow. If FlyingCowOfDoom is not mafia, kill Pimaspinner - Lakai
JSexton - MadTheSwine
FlyingCowOfDoom - Storyteller
Suburban Plankon - Queuing

I did not put my vote in there because I'm about to change it.

If you look at my voting record, everyone with the exception of Queuing claimed a role. I'm not liking this and I'm not enjoying my current suspicion of Malacandra.

Therefore:

If FlyingCowOfDoom is Mafia or The Miller, kill hocow. If FlyingCowOfDoom is not mafia, kill Pimaspinner.

Malacandra, if you can, tell me why I shouldn't vote for hocow.

Those of you not voting in conditionals better start. It's the latest Doperville trend. You don't want to seem uncool, do you?

Rysto

04-08-2007, 09:51 PM

Well, I'll change my Vig vote. I'm not going to vote for FCoD yet just in case we need to back out and restart the clock. If Day 2 taught us anything, it was to be ready for anything.

If FlyingCowOfDoom is Mafia or The Miller, kill JSexton. If FlyingCowOfDoom is not mafia, kill Pimaspinner

kivvik

04-08-2007, 09:55 PM

Heck no I don't want to be seen as uncool! So...

Vote FCOD
Vig kill - If Mafia, then kill hocow. If Town, then kill pimaspinner.

This is by no means set in stone! I want to see more JSexton posting first, and a defense by hocow since they are the current top targets.

Hockey Monkey

04-08-2007, 10:00 PM

If FCOD is Mafia or Miller, Vig kill hocow. If FCOD is not Mafia or Miller, Vig kill me.

Seems fair. :cool:

NAF1138

04-08-2007, 10:02 PM

ok, I haven't been home all day, but have been checking in periodically on my phone. Please forgive the lack of spell check and coding. Go with Queings latest vote count as the last official one and let t be known that the 12 hour countdown has started. So round abouts 7:22 am pst the night will end.

SMITTY: you have 12 hours to make three posts or I will start looking for a sub for you.

In answer to the question about the beat cop, the answer is random every time.

Ok I will keep checking tonight and will make another post by 9am pst tomorrow at the very very latest. If the night ends at 7: 22 that morning the same rules apply as last time. The night starts even if I am not arrounf to announce it.

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-08-2007, 10:11 PM

Well, shit! I come back from Easter to this?

I'm probably a goner at this point, but I'll try to save myself.

I AM A MILLER.

This role kinda sucks. I knew pima was a cop since the beginning, as he kept FoSing me for no reason.

Anyway, I don't really have a lot of time as I have to be up really early for work tomorrow. Lynching me won't really help us find any scum...it'd be better to kill someone that isn't possibly a Miller. Remember, Millers always show up as Mafia to cops (assuming their investigation is correct).

Anyway, I'll just post my list of blocks and hope that I'm still alive in the morning.

Night 1 - I blocked Queuing. Since it didn't affect the kills that night, he isn't the SK or the Vig.
Night 2 - I blocked Malacandra. Since there were only two kills that night, I thought maybe I had hit something. As I've previously stated, I think having the Vig around right now is beneficial, so I didn't say anything.
Night 3 - I blocked Malacandra a second time. Since the Vig killed Winston and the SK killed nesta, I conclude that Malacandra isn't the Vig or SK.

It's possible that Malacandra is in the Mafia and I blocked the Mafia kill on the second night, but I doubt it. I really have no way to prove anything, so I'll just leave it at that. I am perfectly willing to use my ability as instructed by the town if I'm alive tomorrow.

--FCOD

Kat

04-08-2007, 10:12 PM

This should be what color? Orange?

If FlyingCowOfDoom is Mafia or The Miller, kill hocow. If FlyingCowOfDoom is not Mafia or The Miller, kill Pimaspinner.

Kat

04-08-2007, 10:16 PM

*throws hands up in the air*

I'm in the corner if anyone wants me.

Lakai

04-08-2007, 10:18 PM

Even though FCD claimed to be The Miller, lynching him is our best bet.

It is exactly what a mafioso would have claimed.

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 10:26 PM

Well then, we seem to have two factions based on whether or not we think JSexton is scum and little time. Am I all alone in thinking that he's not? Perhaps you guys could lynch JSexton, if he's mafia kill me, if he town kill Sturmhauke or MadTheSwine? Anyway that's my thought.

I sure hope you're town JSexton. I'm putting my life on the line here.

I say we let FCOD live for now. unvote FCOD

Aguecheek

04-08-2007, 10:26 PM

Well fuck.

That's what I get for going out for the day.

Unvote MonkeyMensch

I was going to say that I wouldn't cast a vote yet, until I found out where the tide was going with this whole miller crap. But 12 hours from then'll be 8 am tomorrow morning. Barely enough time to boot up my computer, much less see what arguments have arisen from FCOD's claim.

'Course, if I do vote, I get called on later for bandwagoning. If I don't, I get called on for staying out of the whole thing.

Tell you what I'll do, folks. We've got enough votes in to lynch FCOD. In the meantime, If FCOD is Mafia/Miller, vig JSexton. If FCOD is town, vig pimaspinner.. If enough people have withdrawn their votes to stop the clock (at least until noonish), I'll add a blue vote.

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 10:27 PM

It is exactly what a mafioso would have claimed.True, but I think we have another knot that we can untangle and should cause at least 1 mafia kill tonight. We have quite a few scum to shoot for.

Blaster Master

04-08-2007, 10:33 PM

Sorry, for not posting much this weekend (yeah, I doubt I'm missed that much) but I do have a few points to add.

Lynch FCOD.

First, in this case, where half of the conditional is obvious, it may behoove us only to vote on whom I should target in the event FCOD IS miller or mafia; it will make the voting a lot simpler. That said, my prefered target for tonight would be Suburban Plankton. However, true to my word, I am going to refrain from voting for whom I should VIG kill tonight.

Second, for hocow, she is still my primary suspect for SK, but I'm not completely sold on my own idea either. On further reflection, my theory was running on the assumption that someone who had that thought process was likely involved in a first night killing, and the possibility that that may include mafia slipped my mind. Thus, un reflection, I think it is also likely that she is mafia. Regardless, she is probably my second choice for my target tonight.

Third, now that we have more than one person to protect, tonight might be an excellent night to discuss the help of the Guardian Angel. If we assume there is one, then he/she could protect both me and pimaspinner, and the doctor could then self-protect. OR, since we're not sure, we could gambit and theorize that the GA does exist and ask him to consider protecting us, and have the doctor randomly choose between pimaspinner and me. I suspect that if the mafia attacked me last night, and the doctor protected me, knowing there's then a really good chance I'll be protected, and that pimaspinner would be too, they might think twice about targetting either of us tonight.

Now obviously, if it turns out that pimaspinner is a liar, then that whole last point becomes moot.

Hockey Monkey

04-08-2007, 10:36 PM

True, but I think we have another knot that we can untangle and should cause at least 1 mafia kill tonight. We have quite a few scum to shoot for.

After your last few posts defending FCOD, and proposing a whole new situation to try and save Jsexton, I'm now inclined to think you are Mafia as well.

Change my Vig vote to:
If FCOD is Mafia or Miller, kill Fern Forest. If not, kill me.

I think we'll get 2 scum for the price of one.

Blaster Master

04-08-2007, 10:37 PM

On further consideration, I am also uncomfortable with VIGing anyone who doesn't have an opportunity to role claim and defend himself/herself. Thus, I hope that after my VIG target is chosen, we can allow enough time for him/her to offer a defense. Hence, I will unvote FCOD in the event that the clock has to be stopped because of this, since I am unsure if I will be able to unvote in time. However, for anyone keeping official score, this is not due to a lack of confidence that it is the correct vote.

Blaster Master

04-08-2007, 10:39 PM

Well, damnit... I should have read the posts I missed before bothering with my reconsideration. Now it really IS moot. Oh boy.

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 10:40 PM

After your last few posts defending FCOD, and proposing a whole new situation to try and save Jsexton, I'm now inclined to think you are Mafia as well.
Did you put JSexton there instead of FCOD? Because I asked you guys to kill JSexton and the night to turn on the outcome.

Hockey Monkey

04-08-2007, 10:44 PM

Kat

04-08-2007, 10:48 PM

I think Fern Forest's suggestion was:
Lynch JSexton
If he's mafia, vig kills Fern Forest, if he's town kill sturmhauke or MadTheSwine

Rysto

04-08-2007, 10:48 PM

After your last few posts defending FCOD, and proposing a whole new situation to try and save Jsexton, I'm now inclined to think you are Mafia as well.
I'm voting for "misguided Townie", myself. He's saying lynch JSexton, and night-kill him if JSexton is Mafia. Kind of a stupid thing for a Mafioso to do. Either he's a Townie who hasn't thought things through(if JSexton is indeed town then tomorrow suspicion will fall on those who pushed for his death), or he's a Mafioso who's hoping that JSexton gets spared like Queuing.

Hockey Monkey

04-08-2007, 10:50 PM

I think Fern Forest's suggestion was:
Lynch JSexton
If he's mafia, vig kills Fern Forest, if he's town kill sturmhauke or MadTheSwine

Why would she propose to kill him if she thinks he's town? She threw out a preposterous situation to try and take some heat off FCOD.

Lakai

04-08-2007, 10:50 PM

First, in this case, where half of the conditional is obvious, it may behoove us only to vote on whom I should target in the event FCOD IS miller or mafia; it will make the voting a lot simpler. That said, my prefered target for tonight would be Suburban Plankton. However, true to my word, I am going to refrain from voting for whom I should VIG kill tonight.

I case it isn't obvious, I'll keep posting it. Plus, it is not so hard to copy and paste the first conditional for those that don't want to write it out.

Here are the Vig votes so far. I'll keep the count until when I'll say I'm going to sleep. Hopefully no one will have a problem with that. Since the countdown hasn't stopped we need to get organized and should have a clear picture of how the Vig votes are going.

If FlyingCowOfDoom is Mafia or The Miller, kill JSexton. If FlyingCowOfDoom is not mafia, kill Pimaspinner - Glee, Menocchio, Rysto, Aguecheek
If FlyingCowOfDoom is Mafia or The Miller, kill hocow. If FlyingCowOfDoom is not mafia, kill Pimaspinner - Lakai, Kivvik, Kat
If FlyingCowOfDoom is Mafia or The Miller, kill Fern Forest. If FlyingCowOfDoom is not mafia, kill Pimaspinner - Pimaspinner
JSexton - MadTheSwine
FlyingCowOfDoom - Storyteller
Suburban Plankon - Queuing

StarvingButStrong

04-08-2007, 10:52 PM

Wow. This string of votes/claims is just unbelievably against probabilities....

So...it looks like we've established a pattern of accepting all claims (at least temporarily) so does that mean we should accept FCOD's? I'd be happier about his claim if a) several people hadn't already pointed out the possibility that he could have that role and b) someone hadn't asked him to list who he'd blocked so far. It just comes across as if he'd been prompted in what to say and just went along with it.

Personally, I still think Suburban Plankton is scummy. It looks like the Guest of Honor for the daily lynching has been chosen, so

If FCOD is anything but Miller/Mafia, vig Pima. (this seems pretty settled too)
If FCOD is Miller/Mafia, vig Suburban Plankton.

Kat

04-08-2007, 10:52 PM

Why would she propose to kill him if she thinks he's town? She threw out a preposterous situation to try and take some heat off FCOD.

You'd have to ask FF that. I'm just saying how the suggestion reads to me.

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 10:53 PM

Right here it seems that you are defending Jsexton. Please correct me if I'm wrong in my assesment.
Yes, you are wrong. I am suggesting that today the town lynch JSexton. If JSexton turns out to be town then kill Sturmhauke or MadTheSwine, or whoever else you think should go there. If JSexton turns out to be mafia then kill me. Thus I am saying that I sure hope I'm right because if I'm wrong then I would die at the hands of Blaster Master.

My opinions for FCOD were like this. Have Blaster Master kill her at night and try and find another mobster today, hoping to pick up two. I acknowledge that this is unpopular..

When FCOD claimed I felt differently. There is a possible mobster in the FCOD case. I am more certain there's a mobster in the Sturmhauke/JSexton feud. I say break that up and take a better shot at the mob and I'm willing to risk my life for it. FCOD is exposed as she can day anyday. We have 8, maybe 7, mobsters today. Why go after one we think is possible scum when we have a knot that has a better chance of catching a scum.

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 10:56 PM

I meant this.

...FCOD is exposed and can die any day...

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 10:59 PM

Why would she propose to kill him if she thinks he's town? She threw out a preposterous situation to try and take some heat off FCOD.
I believe that either JSexton or Sturmhauke is a mobster. I believe that a one for one trade benefits the town. So I am proposing that the town put up 2 possible scenarios today and tonight.

Lynch JSexton and the VG kills Sturmhauke.
or
Lynch JSexton and the VG kills Fern Forest.

One of those will net us a mobster. I believe it will play out like the top one and not the bottom one. See what I'm doing now?

JSexton

04-08-2007, 11:00 PM

JSexton: He has the suspicion of Blaster Master being the SK. If you no longer hold this theory by all means tell me. But it seems like the real Vig would've killed him during the test night, barring a Doctor's umbrella. At any rate, I like your posts and if you have a new summation coming anytime soon I look forward to it.

I think the chances of Blaster being the SK are about nil, as it's nearly certain that the SK made the nesta kill. Blaster's posts make no sense from a mafia perspective. Therefore, he must be the genuine vig.

Menocchio

04-08-2007, 11:05 PM

Even though FCD claimed to be The Miller, lynching him is our best bet.

It is exactly what a mafioso would have claimed.
Yep. When you're holding rags, why not bluff and say you made the flush? My vote stands. It sucks but we have to call it.

On the plus side, ignoring the possibility of FCOD pulling a Winston Smith, we now know we can trust pimaspinner. The possibility that scum would correctly guess a miller seems negligible.

Now, if FCOD is indeed a miller: Malacandra, worth considering as a mafioso? Some more likely alternative possibilities, overlapping kills or doctor/GA intervention, but still certainly not a point in his favor.

Lakai

04-08-2007, 11:07 PM

Menocchio

04-08-2007, 11:08 PM

Fern Forest,

We've got a bird in the hand. Why are you skulking in the bush?

Rysto

04-08-2007, 11:09 PM

Fern Forest, your reasoning makes little sense. We're certain that FCoD is Mafia. We can't possibly gain any more information about FCoD. Therefore, it makes the most sense to lynch him now, and gain information about others.

Given that, we have to night-kill our next most likely target. JSexton and hocow are the leading contenders for the night-kill. Once the night-kill is complete and we have the victim's alignment, we can make a decision from there during the next Day.

zuma

04-08-2007, 11:14 PM

I vote If FCOD is mafia or miller, Kill Jsexton

Would it make any sense to lynch someone besides FCOD and let the vig target FCOD? That way if FCOD is a miller they can save themself.

Blaster Master

04-08-2007, 11:15 PM

Fern Forest:

This suggestion looks fishy to me as well. Let's run a couple possibilities: 1) You are scum, JSexton is not. Obviously, it would make sense to say this, know he shows up town, and then have the finger pointed at another townie. If this is the case, it looks REALLY bad for you. 2) You are scum, JSexton is scum. This would make no sense, unless you're hoping it looks SO stupid, no one buys it or, as another suggested, you are trying the "not guilty by association" defense. 3) You are not scum, JSexton is not scum. This just looks ill-advised. Why would you risk your life to prove he's not scum; and if we do lynch him, what does that prove? That we (the town) were wildly off base again. 4) You are not scum, JSexton is scum. I guess this case just really sucks for you, eh?

We've already established that suggesting yourself being VIGed at night looks oddly suspicious, so I can't see the wisdom of this move if you're not scum. Thus, it looks like the first case is the most probable because it would seemingly vindicate you. That said, I am not inclined to think lynching JSexton today is a good idea, because I'm not sold on the idea that he's scum.

I would much rather see someone who looks more scummy to me get lynched (like Suburban Plankton). Also, I'm inclined to give FCOD the benefit of the doubt, and ask him to block hocow and/or JSexton. We're running out of roles to claim, and if he's lying, we can always lynch him later when we run out of scummy looking targets that can claim power roles. Today, it looks like we have at least two or three other good targets today, so I think we can let FCOD off until we don't have anyone to target.

That said, here's what I propose:
FCOD, please block hocow or JSexton.
pimaspinner, maybe you could investigate one of them as well, or take a complete stab in the dark with one of the "under the radar" people
Then we can lynch Suburban Plankton. And I can target whichever one between hocow and JSexton isn't going to be investigated and/or blocked. OR I can go after another target all together.

JSexton

04-08-2007, 11:17 PM

Yes, you are wrong. I am suggesting that today the town lynch JSexton. If JSexton turns out to be town then kill Sturmhauke or MadTheSwine, or whoever else you think should go there. If JSexton turns out to be mafia then kill me. Thus I am saying that [b]I sure hope I'm right because if I'm wrong then I would die[b/] at the hands of Blaster Master.

You're full of crap. The second bolded bit indicates that you believe me to be townm because if you're wrong you'll be vigged, but that condition only happens if I'm scum.
Meaning you being right = me being town. Why are you pushing for the lynch of someone you think is pro-town?

You've gotten your wires crossed, and it shows.

lynch Flying Cow
Vig pimaspinner if Cow is non-Miller town.
Vig Fern Forest if Cow is scum.

Hockey Monkey

04-08-2007, 11:18 PM

I believe that either JSexton or Sturmhauke is a mobster. I believe that a one for one trade benefits the town. So I am proposing that the town put up 2 possible scenarios today and tonight.

Lynch JSexton and the VG kills Sturmhauke.
or
Lynch JSexton and the VG kills Fern Forest.

One of those will net us a mobster. I believe it will play out like the top one and not the bottom one. See what I'm doing now?

I see what you are doing. I think that all 3 of you may be mafia. I think this is a smoke screen because you know that it's safe to propose this scenario and distance yourself from the both of them, because it does look like FCOD will be lynched. While it may be beneficial in some capacity to spare him for now and go after another faction, I'm with Menocchio that we have a bird in the hand. We are down and we need to go for what we know. If we hold off and lynch another townie instead, then the Mafia gets another one tonight, and the SK might get one too. That's a scenario that I don't like at all.

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 11:18 PM

We think we have a bird in the hand. We can put that bird in a cage and gas it whenever we want. We have a whole bunch of scum on the loose. Why stop hunting when we think we have one when keep hunting today? And it doesn't hurt us, it's not like it will keep any scum from making a kill today. Well, unless FCOD is the SK. And if she is then she's painted a big bullseye on her back for the mob tonight for either she is a miller with a true claim or she's the SK with a false claim.

Why do you think either JSexton or Sturmhauke is a mobster?
Because I am fairly sure that JSexton is a citizen. Sturmhauke has gone after him fairly strongly today. I believe he did so because he perceived a weakness and believe that he could take him down and have a good alibi tomorrow.

Rysto

04-08-2007, 11:18 PM

Would it make any sense to lynch someone besides FCOD and let the vig target FCOD? That way if FCOD is a miller they can save themself.
That is an excellent suggestion. I say we go with this. FCoD claims to be a Miller? Make him prove it tonight.

JSexton

04-08-2007, 11:20 PM

Would it make any sense to lynch someone besides FCOD and let the vig target FCOD? That way if FCOD is a miller they can save themself.
...you know, I don't actually see a down side to that. It tests for the case that FCOD is telling the truth, and is self-correcting if he's lying. The only potential downside I can see is if FCOD is the Godfather and thus vig-proof...but then, pimaspinner wouldn't have gotten guilties on him, right?

I think that's a brilliant idea.

Kat

04-08-2007, 11:20 PM

JSexton

04-08-2007, 11:22 PM

We think we have a bird in the hand. We can put that bird in a cage and gas it whenever we want. We have a whole bunch of scum on the loose. Why stop hunting when we think we have one when keep hunting today? And it doesn't hurt us, it's not like it will keep any scum from making a kill today. Well, unless FCOD is the SK. And if she is then she's painted a big bullseye on her back for the mob tonight for either she is a miller with a true claim or she's the SK with a false claim.
What? Keep fooling aound with hunting scum when we think we have one? That makes no sense.

Because I am fairly sure that JSexton is a citizen. Sturmhauke has gone after him fairly strongly today. I believe he did so because he perceived a weakness and believe that he could take him down and have a good alibi tomorrow.
More not-making-sense. You're advocating lynching someone you think is town...amazing.

lynch Fern Forest
vig Flying Cow

Rysto

04-08-2007, 11:24 PM

...but then, pimaspinner wouldn't have gotten guilties on him, right?
Not unless FCoD is the unluckiest Godfather ever.

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 11:25 PM

Why are you pushing for the lynch of someone you think is pro-town?

You've gotten your wires crossed, and it shows.
So many people hate this idea.

I guess I could keep arguing but I'm not sure what it will get me but on the lynch list for today. The reason I'm throwing you under the but JSexton is because that doing do allows me to bag Sturmhauke who I think is scum. A one for one trade benefits the town.

But consider me shouted down and out of ideas.

Rysto

04-08-2007, 11:26 PM

I'm officially on the Assassinate FCoD bandwagon. Dunno who I'm going to vote to lynch, though.

Blaster Master

04-08-2007, 11:26 PM

I vote If FCOD is mafia or miller, Kill Jsexton

Would it make any sense to lynch someone besides FCOD and let the vig target FCOD? That way if FCOD is a miller they can save themself.
{Color removed to avoid confusion}

I can also go with this. This would "waste" my VIG kill, but it would essentially net us three confirmed citizens (me, pimaspinner, and FCOD).

Props to Zuma.

Hockey Monkey

04-08-2007, 11:29 PM

I can go along with the suggestion that we Vig kill FCOD, and if he is a miller he can block Blaster Master. If not, he dies. This is actually brilliant. Fern Forest is digging a hole she can't get out off. We can use it for her grave. :p

Unvote FlyingCow

Lynch Fern Forest
Vig Kill FlyingCow

Kat

04-08-2007, 11:33 PM

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 11:37 PM

That'll teach me to take 15 minutes to post a message.

Fern Forest:
Why not advocate lynching sturmhauke if you think
(1) either JSexton or sturmhauke is Mafia [i]and[/b]
(2) JSexton is town?

Isn't that just the same as saying you think sturmhauke is Mafia?

And in preview now, I see you saying exactly that. Why not call for a vote for sturmhauke, since you think he is Mafia, instead of someone you think is Town?I did, it had no traction. I can't get the trade to work if Sturmhauke goes first. I suppose I could go first. If I'm town kill Sturmhauke, if I'm mafia kill JSexton. Give a dying man his last wish?

Fern Forest is digging a hole she can't get out off. We can use it for her grave. :p
Well, if I can confirm three townies then I guess it's good for the town since I do win if the town wins. Make your block tonight count FCOD.

I would defend myself but when the ghost of Winston Smith get you ... *shrugs* Ah well, I tried to be bold and it blew up in my face.

I still like my idea though. And if it would have netted us the Godfather I shall taunt you guys mercilessly.

Menocchio

04-08-2007, 11:48 PM

I have some nightmares about scum killing FCOD and the rest of us arguing about whether or not that's what happened or if BM is mafia and FCOD just missed his chance to block.

But that seems unlikely.

Also, there's the chance that we lynch the SK, and the whole vig point becomes moot, but then we could just lynch FCOD in the morning.

So:
Unvote Flying Cow of Darkness.
Vigilante Target Flying Cow of Darkness
Flying Cow of Darkness Target Blaster Master
Doctor, Guardian Angel, Serial Killer (if playing a pro-town strategy, which remains your best shot) do not touch Flying Cow of Darkness.

Ok, so who do we lynch then? We've got to decide quickly, even if we abort the fast countdown. I'm not quite sure at this point, we have several excellent candidates.

Fern Forest has been acting very suspicious. We have to test FCOD and pimaspinner's claims. We cannot let them both go unopposed. I can't see what your plans would accomplish, unless it's to provide cover for yourself when one of the more popular suspects turns up scum. But you could just be a particularly misguided townfolk.

JSexton still bugs me, for the reasons I laid down earlier. The more I think about it, the more I think he may be the serial killer, as well. The vigilante, after all, is the most motivated to find the SK. It clears him to the town and "wins" his slice of the game.

Suburban Plankton's reaction to pimaspinner's outing bugs me too. It seems guilty, but it could just as easily have been borne out of incredulity regarding the number of claims at this stage.

For now, I will vote for JSexton.
I can be persuaded to change my vote to SP or FF if there's a tiebreaker needed between them and any other party.

NAF1138

04-08-2007, 11:48 PM

For the love of....
UNVOTE PEOPLE! This is hard enough as it is

VOTE COUNT

10- Flying Cow of Doom - (Fretful Porpentine, glee, MtS, hocow, fernforest, Queuing, lakai, ArizonaTeach, Pygmy Rugger, kivvik)
4- Fern Forest - (brewha, JSexton, pimmaspinner, kat)
4- JSexton - (FCoD, Suburban Plankton, Rysto, sturmhauke)
2- Suburban Plankton - (StarvingButStrong, Blaster Master)
1- pimaspinner - (Storyteller0910)

Also, if FCoD does get the clock stopped, the day ends tomorrow at 5pm PST not 12pm.

Lakai

04-08-2007, 11:50 PM

...you know, I don't actually see a down side to that. It tests for the case that FCOD is telling the truth, and is self-correcting if he's lying. The only potential downside I can see is if FCOD is the Godfather and thus vig-proof...but then, pimaspinner wouldn't have gotten guilties on him, right?

I think that's a brilliant idea.

This also stops the clock and lets us think about our second target. If FCOD dies and turns out to be town, we lynch pima tomorrow right?

I'll won't vote yet, I want to see if smarter folks can find a downside to this. If not, then we just flip our Vig and lynch votes and have no conditionals. FCOD will be targeted at the hands of the Vig tonight and whoever we wanted to Vig kill if FCOD turned out to be mafia or the miller will be lynched at dusk.

Menocchio

04-08-2007, 11:51 PM

Is it "of doom"?

I assume all the counting agencies know what I meant.

Fern Forest

04-08-2007, 11:56 PM

It's funny. Now I know how Winston must have felt. I want to help the town but right now I think any suggestion I make might actually hurt the town. So I'm actually going to shut up. *Pause for applause* I'm still reading and will address any questions directed at me till I go to bed. If I have time in the morning I will do so then as well.

If you would like to understand how I've played the game so far I can give you that.

Blaster Master

04-08-2007, 11:59 PM

For now, I'm inclined to believe Fern Forest is simply misguided. I'm still trying to understand how Suburban Plankton fell out of favor as a prime suspect?

Lakai

04-09-2007, 12:01 AM

I'll won't vote yet, I want to see if smarter folks can find a downside to this.

When I posted this I did not read page 42. I guess there is already a trend.

Unvote FCOD.
Vote Vote Fern Forest..

Vig Kill FCOD.

Now if Blaster Master is somehow mafia, we will know if his hit of FCOD goes through and we see FCOD is the miller.

Damn this plan is good.

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 12:01 AM

Agh... pressed post too early.

If I'm going to be testing the pimaspinner/FCOD angle; we need to get some serious unvoting and revoting going on.

Hockey Monkey

04-09-2007, 12:11 AM

For now, I'm inclined to believe Fern Forest is simply misguided. I'm still trying to understand how Suburban Plankton fell out of favor as a prime suspect?

Blaster Master, can you recap for us why you think Suburban Plankton is a better target? If Fern Forest really is a misguided townie ala Winston Smith, then I wouldn't want to kill her. Right now her posts are very suspicious, (but then again so were mine I guess). Unless I am convinced otherwise, my vote will stand.

Hockey Monkey

04-09-2007, 12:23 AM

We haven't heard from Pleonast in a couple of days. I'd be interested in hearing his take on all this. If he has been out of town, he'll have a lot to catch up on.

And yes, Blaster Master, we are running out of time. If this plan is going to work, the unvoting needs to happen quickly. Poor NAF with all the voting and unvoting and Vig Killing and such.

Fern Forest

04-09-2007, 12:38 AM

Ok, I see it from your guys perspective now. While I still think it would net a mobster I understand why it would look bad to other townfolk.

And I'd like to appologize to JSexton. Essentially what I was doing was using your death to kill Sturmhauke and prove my towniness. While I believe it would do the former I understand it wouldn't do the later. And I would look really weasily while I did it.

Heh-heh, almost akin to drowning women to see if they float or sink. I'm sorry.

MonkeyMensch

04-09-2007, 12:40 AM

Along with more than a few others who were away: Wow! It's like missing a soap opera for a week.

Thanks for the update JSexton.

And lynch FCoD.

And so to bed. With the prospect of an interesting day ahead of us all.

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 12:41 AM

Blaster Master, can you recap for us why you think Suburban Plankton is a better target? If Fern Forest really is a misguided townie ala Winston Smith, then I wouldn't want to kill her. Right now her posts are very suspicious, (but then again so were mine I guess). Unless I am convinced otherwise, my vote will stand.
Namely, the series of posts starting with 1804 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435253&postcount=1804) where he was suggesting that the town should not suggest my target. He defended it for several posts: 1810 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435304&postcount=1810) and 1812 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8435326&postcount=1812) and
1867 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8437144&postcount=1867). Then, in post 1873 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8437489&postcount=1873) he back steps, but never really gives a good justification.

Even despite that, here's what I find most interesting. A COMPLETE reversal of position in 6 posts. Here's a quote from post 1867 followed by a quote from 1873:
If he were truly doing the town's bidding, that would be one thing, but I don't think that is the case. I think that he and the Mafia (which he may or may not be part of) are manipulating the "Vigilante voting" to suit their own ends. I think that the town only has an illusion that they are in control of Blaster Master, and that is the problem. If he were truly doing what the good townspeople wanted, that would be fine. If he is not, then he is a liability.
Although I voiced the theory that Blaster Master might be Mafia, I do think (and I said at the time) that it is most likely that he is actually the Vigilante. I can understand why the "real" Vigilante (if there is one) would remain silent at this point; he might not want to put a target on his back by coming out while the town is so far in the whole. But that theory only holds water for so long.
It looks to me like in 1867 he's still trying to push the idea that I'm mafia... fine, okay, I can deal with that, because I haven't cleared my name completely yet. Either way, it looks like he thinks it's more likely that I'm mafia than the vigilante; but just six posts later, it changes from "most likely mafia" to "might be scum, but most likely vigilante". Either way, it looks to me like he couldn't keep his story straight after the town started to put the pressure on him.

Even more interesting, he WAS the leading vote getter at one point, and after he started collecting votes, he said he'd "shut up for a while". Meanwhile, he let's pimaspinner and FCOD pick up some votes and cause distractions, and he posts two more "seemingly helpful" posts. One about whether we should lynch the SK if we discover him (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8438304&postcount=1889) and one that is a vague defense of FCOD (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8443028&postcount=1991) before he claimed miller.

Regardless, I think Suburban Plankton's "suggestion" is at least as fishy as Fern Forest's and Suburban Plankton has been pinging my scum-dar since the first day, just never enough to put him high on my lynch list... until today, while Fern Forest has seemed pretty clean to me until just recently.

kivvik

04-09-2007, 12:49 AM

zuma has a great idea, and I'd like to take my part in it.

Unvote FCoD
No Vote yet, but wanted to stop the timer, which might have worked, but MM voted in the meantime =/
Vig FCoD

kivvik

04-09-2007, 01:02 AM

Nevermind, just went back and recounted. FCoD should be at 9 votes now, so the timer is off.

MadTheSwine

04-09-2007, 01:03 AM

Hockey Monkey

04-09-2007, 01:12 AM

I think we should keep this simple, folks. Things are getting murky,lotsa smoke screens getting thrown in the mix.Lets lynch FCOD and and decide on a vig kill.
I think it is very,very unlikely FCOD is a miller.

Does anyone else get the feeling that we are on to something with the plan? If MadTheSwine is scum, he would know that FCOD is not a miller and is sacraficing him so they don't lose 2 members when we lynch one, and FCOD can't block the Vig kill.

kivvik

04-09-2007, 01:38 AM

I think we should keep this simple, folks. Things are getting murky,lotsa smoke screens getting thrown in the mix.Lets lynch FCOD and and decide on a vig kill.
I think it is very,very unlikely FCOD is a miller.

It is unlikely. That is why we are going to let FCoD decide their fate tonight. If they are the Miller, they live by blocking BM. If not, they die a horrible death and we dance the next day, assuming, as certainly seems to be the case, that FCoD is scum.

So that actually makes it simpler. We have our Vig target, let us decide upon a Lynch target.

MadTheSwine

04-09-2007, 01:38 AM

Does anyone else get the feeling that we are on to something with the plan? If MadTheSwine is scum, he would know that FCOD is not a miller and is sacraficing him so they don't lose 2 members when we lynch one, and FCOD can't block the Vig kill.

I misunderstood what was going on,so we are gonna lynch someone else and the VIG kills FCOD no matter what,correct? (unless he is a miller... which again ,I highly doubt...I can't be the only one to think that)

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 01:39 AM

Does anyone else get the feeling that we are on to something with the plan? If MadTheSwine is scum, he would know that FCOD is not a miller and is sacraficing him so they don't lose 2 members when we lynch one, and FCOD can't block the Vig kill.I concur. Really, MTS, how is it "too complicated"? My VIG target is simple: if FCOD dies, then FCOD is either not miller (probably mafia, or desperate townie) and thus failed to block me, or the mafia targetted him figuring he really was the miller, and dies even though he blocked me. Either way, by me targetting him, it potentially confirms pimaspinner, FCOD, and helps make my role a lot clearer. What's "so complicated about that?" "Best" case (that is, where everyone is telling the truth), we get two confirmed townies and my VIG kill isn't potentially wasted on a townie; "worst" case we get one confirmed townie, and my VIG kill is used on scum.

It really looks like the new lynch target is the only "complicated" part of this plan. Do we lynch JSexton, Fern Forest, (if I had my way) Suburban Plankton, or someone else entirely? We don't have much time to figure out, but we really need to get some votes moved soon to avoid the day ending on us with FCOD having the most votes. That is, I'm willing to vote Fern Forest or JSexton instead of who I think is the most likely scum, Suburban Plankton, if it will prevent us from lynching FCOD.

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 01:42 AM

I misunderstood what was going on,so we are gonna lynch someone else and the VIG kills FCOD no matter what,correct? (unless he is a miller... which again ,I highly doubt...I can't be the only one to think that)
Yes, it seems to be a strong consensus that Zuma's idea is a very good one; but it will only work if we can get the votes off of FCOD and onto someone else that we think is scum. We have three or four other potentials, so pick a target and have at it.

MadTheSwine

04-09-2007, 01:51 AM

Alright...I'm with you fellas....
unvote FCOD

Unvig Jsexton

VIG FCOD

glee

04-09-2007, 02:05 AM

Sheesh - too little sleep and straight back here. :eek:

Well I used to be a programmer...

If (Flying Cow of Doom is a Miller) AND (Blaster Master is the Vigilante);
then lynch 'someone else' and get Blaster Master to 'take out' Flying Cow of Doom - who cunningly uses his own power to 'block' his death. :smack:

And if the Mafia kill Flying Cow of Doom, we learn about the Miller, thus helping us with future deductions.

Since (we don't have a lot of time) AND (Fern Forest has posted some mildly dodgy stuff) AND (Fern Forest has not claimed a Town role):

Unvote Flying Cow of Doom
Lynch Fern Forest
Vig Kill Flying Cow of Doom

P.S. If for some odd reason the Mafia or the SK 'off' me tonight, please reread my post 1993, where I suggest Suburban Plankton is Mafia.

Here is post 1993 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8443047&postcount=1993)

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 02:14 AM

Well, looks like the clock has stopped.

At this point I have FCoD at 7 votes and Fern Forest at 6, JSexton at 4 Suburban Plankton at 2. MTS and pimmaspinner each have one vote.

I am going to bed I will give you an update in the morning.

SMITTY, you really should start posting. I have already started looking for potential replacements. You have between 12 and 17 hours to get back in this game.

Fern Forest

04-09-2007, 02:51 AM

Alright I'm heading to bed. I may be able to post in the morning but I may not. I fully expect to be dead when I get back from work so I'll make this, my last will and final game post. Our three leading vote getters are myself, FCOD and JSexton. I agree that trying to kill FCOD tonight is a good move. JSexton is a better player then me and not nearly as damaged as I am. I, at least, am very certain he's town and so out of those three I think it makes the most sense kill me.

Allow me to explain how I played the game in case you folks are interested.

Day 1 - My goals for the day were to cast a few accusations and see how people reacted. I cast one for Sturmhauke and was reasonably satisfied at the time. Another goal was to start up a conversation about the best way to play the roles, including offering targets to our night killers. I felt it was in the town's interest that they had as much help as possible. Then Day 1 ended quickly.

Day 2 - I tossed an accusation at Gadarene and received what I thought was a great response. I tossed another one at brewha and got a mediocre response. As the weekend wore on I thought we should begin turning up the heat so I switched my vote to Pleonast because I was suspicious of who he had on his trust lists. Later I began pushing people harder to start the timer on people and that got me my first vote but in jest. I wanted this because I thought we were acting too timidly because of Day 1. Then that day really exploded in complexity. All the people I thought were acting suspiciously turned out to be townies with power roles.

Along the way chrisk burned out and I remembed that JSexton had voluntered to join so I tossed him a PM that he join. I argued he should have a days grace period on the belief that we have lots of mobster's to kill, we should have more then a few suspects so it doesn't really matter if we let him slide for a day.

Day 3 - I started fairly lost. I thought a lot about odds and noticed that the group of previous players had been selected so as to have a higher concentration then when it started. I mentioned this in a poor manner and this got some people suspicious. brewha voted for me. Later I used that to come up with a vote for Sturmhauke. I'm very certain Rysto is town. Sturmhauke argued it but I was happy with things.

When time began to get low I once again moved my vote to one of the higher vote getters that I found the most suspicious. Yet again there was a claim for townie power role. I suggested FCOD be lynched at night so the town could work over another suspect and then FCOD claimed.

Here my thoughts were we have 9 people to kill, I'm assuming 8 mobsters and 1 SK. Why rush to judgement on one when there are many others out there hiding. My thoughts were that FCOD can't run away nor will she ever not be suspected, who cares if we kill her now or later? When we're down to 2 or 3 mobsters left then we can look in her direction again.

So I turned to the only real feud that seemed to be developing today, that of Sturmhauke's accusation of JSexton. And like the offers of a one for one trade yesterday I made the suggestion. I failed to realize that not everyone thought it was as big of a deal as I did. And of course no other town folk know that I'm on their side, they only suspect. I also didn't realize that it would work with me going first and then killing one of those two on conditions during the night. And well, the rest is history. Or at least it will be in a few hours.

Good night all.

Fern Forest

04-09-2007, 03:05 AM

Of course I'm laying in bed and then I remember another major theme of my game play. Throughout the game I've tried to talk directly to the Serial Killer so that he knew that there was only one way he could reasonably achieve victory and that was by helping the town kill all the mobsters. I think I finally achieved that today.

Ok, back to bed.

zuma

04-09-2007, 03:46 AM

Fern Forest just strikes me as newb (I might change my mind with a re-read). FCOD gets tested with the vig. I will Vote: JSexton for now.

I was cautious with my "vig kills FCOD to test the claim" proposal because while I thought it was the obvious thing to do, this is my first game ever and I've made mis-steps...

Would it have been an obvious thing to do for an experienced player? JSexton posted after FCOD's miller claim, but didn't propose this. Again, maybe it would not have been obvious to an experienced player... if there are any experienced players here, let me know.

Plus I've made a habit of voting Jsexton. He's my new Queuing.

glee

04-09-2007, 03:50 AM

Here my thoughts were we have 9 people to kill, I'm assuming 8 mobsters and 1 SK. Why rush to judgement on one when there are many others out there hiding. My thoughts were that FCOD can't run away nor will she ever not be suspected, who cares if we kill her now or later? When we're down to 2 or 3 mobsters left then we can look in her direction again.

We need to find out who is who.
As soon as possible.
If Flying Cow of Doom is the Miller, then the Town kill can be blocked. :)
If Flying Cow of Doom isn't the Miller, then a Mafia dies. :cool:

How do you suggest we 'get down to 2 or 3 mobsters'? :confused:

Throughout the game I've tried to talk directly to the Serial Killer so that he knew that there was only one way he could reasonably achieve victory and that was by helping the town kill all the mobsters.

If the Serial Killer kills the Town down to the same number as the Mafia, then the Serial Killer wins. :smack:

hocow

04-09-2007, 05:11 AM

Wow, I need to get to work but let me just throw this out there:

I AM NOT SCUM.

I don't know how to prove it, because I am only a vanilla townie. I don't have any special powers that will allow me to prove my role. So just take it as it is, and when I die you will see I'm not a Bad Guy.

Appearantly I suck at this game because I scream scum when I'm town. Oy.

zuma

04-09-2007, 05:31 AM

I don't think you're in any danger today, hocow, but you could help things out by unvoting FCOD.

zuma

04-09-2007, 05:38 AM

By my count, those still needing to unvote FCOD are:

Hocow
Fern Forest
Queuing
ArizonaTeach
Pygmy Rugger
MonkeyMensch
Fretful Porcupine

Malacandra

04-09-2007, 05:47 AM

We could make a third option: If FCoD is Miller, vig-kill Malacadra, but that might make things too complicated.

I really don't have time tonight to go through the thread again. If someone offers a reasonable alternative lynch-vote, with evidence (links or quotes), I'd be happy to consider it, though.

Or I could vote for MadTheSwine again.

Eh? If FCoD is the Miller, and thus validates his suggestive evidence that I am not the SK or Vig, kill me anyway? :confused:

Apologies for the confusion earlier. I thought I spotted a cop shout-out straight after night 1 and didn't want to call attention to it, especially with the Detective gone so early. You can well understand that in those circumstances it would be better for me to die than to yelp a cop's name to save myself. I'll explain myself if forced, but let the town carefully note who forces me.

Up to now we seem to be settled on the theory that we should vig-kill FCoD on the assumption that he will save himself by blocking BM, and lynch... Fern Forest. That works for me. Sorry, but you have to be smoking something to have got this far into the game and not see that the SK can win the game by engineering a mob "victory".

sturmhauke

04-09-2007, 05:51 AM

I am going to leave my vote with JSexton for the time being. I can't decide if Fern Forest is making an ineffective smokescreen for his fellow scum, or just a really bad townie strategist.

zuma

04-09-2007, 05:55 AM

I'm getting a little worried that FCOD is the miller, and JSexton was trying to keep the FCOD lynch going. If FCOD is indeed a miller (which we'll know tonight), then the FCOD bandwagon implicates both JSexton and now Malacandra.

I may be overthinking things. I am just not seeing the Fern Forest thing too much. I see a lot of people wanting to string her up tho. Whatever the result, we will know a lot more tomorrow.

zuma

04-09-2007, 05:59 AM

I'll reiterate that I think we should lynch JSexton and evaluate Fern Forest tomorrow. If FCOD turns out to be a miller, Malacandra could be in trouble.

Malacandra

04-09-2007, 06:12 AM

I'll reiterate that I think we should lynch JSexton and evaluate Fern Forest tomorrow. If FCOD turns out to be a miller, Malacandra could be in trouble.

What? He said (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8443672&postcount=2017) he blocked me and it didn't affect the kill rate!

zuma

04-09-2007, 06:16 AM

What? He said (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8443672&postcount=2017) he blocked me and it didn't affect the kill rate!

Yeah, I'm over-thinking again. It's possible, IF FCOD is the miller, you are mafia. I'll take all that back. and see where we are at tomorrow.

zuma

04-09-2007, 06:23 AM

Apologies to Malacandra. Looks like it's either JSexton or Fern Forest, or maybe Blaster can push through SP. In any event, FCOD needs to be unvoted.

Kat

04-09-2007, 07:22 AM

Eh? If FCoD is the Miller, and thus validates his suggestive evidence that I am not the SK or Vig, kill me anyway? :confused:

:smack: You're absolutely right. I was thrown off of that by:

Now, if FCOD is indeed a miller: Malacandra, worth considering as a mafioso? Some more likely alternative possibilities, overlapping kills or doctor/GA intervention, but still certainly not a point in his favor.

ArizonaTeach

04-09-2007, 07:57 AM

God Dammit, STOP IT PEOPLE!

unvote FCOD
vote JSexton (I'm going with zuma)
vig FCOD

FOS firmly on MonkeyMensch for trying to keep the clock (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8444080&postcount=2071) on FCOD well after the town started going another direction.

StarvingButStrong

04-09-2007, 07:57 AM

Even though I still think he's scum

unvote Suburban Plankton

vote JSexton

(chosen over FF basically because at least we know he isn't a mason. This game is too complex for me.)

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-09-2007, 07:58 AM

Well, I'm still alive, so that's good. I still think it's foolish to target me tonight. I'll block Blaster Master, but I'm concerned that the Mafia or the Serial Killer will just off me instead. IMO, it would be better to kill someone that's garnered more suspicion than "pimaspinner says so," like JSexton. As someone pointed out above, I'll be here tomorrow, why not kill me later if we don't have any better targets. I just think it would be more beneficial to the town to wait on killing me. I suppose it doesn't really matter, because I can't block the Vig, the SK, and the Mafia simultaneously.

Anyway, I'm glad to see that I've been spared the lynch for now. My vote stands at JSexton.

Also, I'M A MAN! Yes, I know you might think I should be the FlyingBullOfDoom, but cow is the name of the species dammit!

--FCOD

brewha

04-09-2007, 07:59 AM

Wow, a lot went on over the weekend. I took a 3 day break for Easter and came back to 5 pages of reading.

Right now, I am sticking with my vote for Fern Forest. He gave a good arguement in his defense, but it was just words. If he really were interested in what is best for the town, he would have unvoted FCoD. That looks suspicious to me.

Vig kill Flying Cow of Doom

brewha

04-09-2007, 08:05 AM

zuma

04-09-2007, 08:10 AM

zuma

04-09-2007, 08:13 AM

FCOD, if you are a miller, you have nothing to worry about. Just block master blaster and you are confrmed town. we'll go into tomorrow knowing that you are town.

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-09-2007, 08:14 AM

we get confirmation on the Vig and a cop.Yes, but so does the Mafia. Not only that, but we'll have wasted another kill on a townie, which would put us 10 to 1!

If there were 10 Mafia at the beginning, there's 9 of them left and 21 of us. We're getting close to the danger zone here, people! Especially if the SK isn't found in the next few turns. We need to be focusing on more suspicious people.

On preview, zuma, yes of course I will be blocking Blaster Master, but I fear it won't matter. I can only hope that both the Mafia and the SK target me so that they don't get a chance to kill any other townies tonight.

--FCOD

Queuing

04-09-2007, 08:14 AM

Oh lord. Ok first things first

unvote FCOD

Vig Kill FCOD

IMO we leave pimaspinner alive no matter what. If he is lieing, well we will find out, but the chance that he just got bad rolls and is really a cop is to great to take. So long as he keeps reporting his night info we should be good. I also don't think any of the beat cops should worry about investigating someone twice. 50/50 is good enough for me to believe.

So who do we lynch? It seems that Fern Forest and JSexton are in the lead, with 7 and 7 votes respectively (I think that is right). I find it suspicious the people who have still called for the lynching of FCOD. It seems to be common sense that he becomes the vig kill, and can block BM to save himself. So who should I vote for? Well TBH, I am not sure right now, and don't have time to re-read this thread. However all 4 suggestions (Fern Forest, JSexton, Suburban Plankton and Sturmhauke) are scum IMO. I suppose I will go with ummm

lynch FernForest

PS: Zuma, are you colour blind? Your votes are never quite the right colour :). FYI, the proper voting colour is just called blue, the unvote red and the vig kill dark orange

zuma

04-09-2007, 08:20 AM

PS: Zuma, are you colour blind? Your votes are never quite the right colour :). FYI, the proper voting colour is just called blue, the unvote red and the vig kill dark orange

Fine, I am colour blind.

Unvote: JSexton

Vote: JSexton

zuma

04-09-2007, 08:23 AM

Spank: Queuing

Queuing

04-09-2007, 08:24 AM

Fine, I am colour blind.

[Unvote: JSexton[

Vote: JSexton]

You sure about that? You didn't mean unvote pima or FCOD or whomever, vote JSexton?

I was just asking, BTW, trying to make things easier for NAF, as the you had been using did not stand out as well.

Spanking me? Ohhh, I didn't realize our relationship went that way....

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-09-2007, 08:31 AM

I think the votes are:

(8) Fern Forest - (brewha, glee, Jsexton, Kat, Lakai, Malacandra, pimaspinner, Queuing)
(8) Jsexton - (ArizonaTeach, FlyingCowOfDoom, Menocchio, Rysto, StarvingButStrong, sturmhauke, Suburban Plankton, zuma)
(4) FlyingCowOfDoom - (Fretful Porpentine, hocow, MonkeyMensch, Pygmy Rugger)
(1) MadTheSwine - (Autolycus)
(1) pimaspinner - (storyteller0910)
(1) Suburban Plankton - (Blaster Master)

--FCOD

Queuing

04-09-2007, 08:33 AM

zuma

04-09-2007, 08:34 AM

You sure about that? You didn't mean unvote pima or FCOD or whomever, vote JSexton?

I was just asking, BTW, trying to make things easier for NAF, as the you had been using did not stand out as well.

Spanking me? Ohhh, I didn't realize our relationship went that way....

I unvoted Pima (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8442858&postcount=1973) here and I never voted for FCOD. I'm voting JSexton and spanking you. I'd like your JSexton vote.

zuma

04-09-2007, 08:43 AM

In any event, JSexton or Fern Forest are going to the grave in a few hours. I'm for JSexton, but if it has to be FF so be it. They're both acting pretty dodgey.

Autolycus

04-09-2007, 08:45 AM

I's dont have time today ors yesterday to read the latest lynch mob bulletin, so I's keepin' my vote tha same.

Good luck people.

StarvingButStrong

04-09-2007, 08:51 AM

I doubt it matters, but I just skimmed the last few pages and I couldn't find if I ever posted for the vig kill.

Just to make it official, I'm happy to go along:

BM should target FCOD

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 08:56 AM

Well, since it looks like my vote for Suburban Plankton isn't going to get the necessary steam today, and because I'm slightly more inclined to believe that JSexton is scum than Fern Forest, though I'm still not convinced.

Unvote Suburban Plankton.
Lynch JSexton.

JSexton, you better post a defense PDQ!

Queuing

04-09-2007, 08:57 AM

I unvoted Pima (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8442858&postcount=1973) here and I never voted for FCOD. I'm voting JSexton and spanking you. I'd like your JSexton vote.

And you may have it..

unovte Fern Forest

Lynch JSexton

Since I went into this day with the intention of voting with the Masons, I might as well stay that way. Therefore the count is now:

10 -JSexton – (Zuma, FCOD, suburban plankton, rysto, sturmhauke, menechio, Arizona, starving,queuing, BM)

7 - Fernforest – (brewha, jsexton, pima, kat, lakai, glee, malacandra)

PS: I keep the brackets open because the information inside is not full yet. Sorry if that bugs you, is it better now? :)

zuma

04-09-2007, 08:59 AM

You're right about me screwing up my colours, Queuing. I'll make them more clear from here on out.

Queuing

04-09-2007, 09:01 AM

You're right about me screwing up my colours, Queuing. I'll make them more clear from here on out.

Sweet, this ups my right count to 3! (Gadarene was not scum, ArizonaTeach was joking, and you are colour blind) I am on roll people!

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 09:02 AM

And, FWIW, I will be targetting FCOD tonight (I don't think a vote count is necessary, it looks pretty decisive in his "favor".

zuma

04-09-2007, 09:04 AM

And, FWIW, I will be targetting FCOD tonight (I don't think a vote count is necessary, it looks pretty decisive in his "favor".

That goes without saying. You target FCOD, FCOD will block you if FCOD is a miller.

I'd like to hear Pleonast's opinion soon of the goings on today

Suburban Plankton

04-09-2007, 09:06 AM

Is anyone else getting the ooky feeling that we're doing the same thing now that we did "yesterday", just with a shorter time window? We were going along pretty well, having some rational discussion, then all of a sudden, people are at each other's throats, names are getting tossed out left and right, the whole discussion devolves into finger pointing.

We went, in pretty short order, from pimaspinner, to Flying Cow Of Doom, to Fern Forest and JSexton. Of those four, I think only JSexton was really high on anyone's radar before. I think someone is steel tying to pull our strings, and generate as much confusion as possible, and once again we're helping them along (myself included).

Of the four names above, we know we have at least one scum, whether it be pimaspinner of FCOD. Right now, it's a coinflip between them. Fern Forest certainly seems suspicious with the "lynch JSexton to prove I'm right about sturmhauke" idea, and I am still convinced that JSexton is Mafia. Maybe we get lucky and find three bad guys in this list. That would be a refreshing change.

I'm heading to work, where I may or may not get the chance to post again before the Day is over. And I'm fully expecting at least one more role-claim before a lynching occurs. It seems to be the thing to do.

Fretful Porpentine

04-09-2007, 09:09 AM

Pretty much a formality at this point, but:

Unvote FlyingCowOfDoom

Vig-kill FlyingCowOfDoom

Vote JSexton

zuma

04-09-2007, 09:26 AM

We went, in pretty short order, from pimaspinner, to Flying Cow Of Doom, to Fern Forest and JSexton. Of those four, I think only JSexton was really high on anyone's radar before. I think someone is steel tying to pull our strings, and generate as much confusion as possible, and once again we're helping them along (myself included)

pima and FCOD claimed and are being tested tonight. That leaves JSexton and Fern Forest as the only real possibilities at this point.

Hockey Monkey

04-09-2007, 09:32 AM

By my count:

Jsexton - 11 - (FCOD, suburban plankton, Rysto, sturmhauke, menocchio, zuma, ArizonaTeach, StarvingButStrong, Blaster Master, Queuing, Fretful Porpentine)

Fern Forest - 7 - (brewha, Jsexton, pimaspinner, kat, lakai, glee, malacandra)

FCOD - 3 - (monkeymensch, hocow, pygmy rugger)

pimaspinner - 1 - (storyteller)

MadTheSwine - 1- (autolycus)

I'm not sure if we are out of the zone where we have a countdown clock, but this day will be ending pretty soon. If no one has any objections, I will investigate Suburban Plankton tonight and post my result at daybreak if I don't get killed in the night. I'm not completely sold that Jsexton is mafia, but since zuma is voting for him, he's not a mason. Since I posted my claim, the people that have acted the most suspicious are Fern Forest, MadTheSwine, and Suburban Plankton. I hope to hear from Jsexton before the lynching.

unvote Fern Forest will now be at 6
vote Jsexton will now be at 12

Rysto

04-09-2007, 09:34 AM

My understanding is that the Day will end at 5pm Eastern, which is a little under 6 and a half hours from now.

Malacandra

04-09-2007, 09:44 AM

Just to reiterate, FCoD says he blocked me twice in a row and the kill count dropped once, which disallows any chance that I'm a loose cannon (unless he's lying) but leaves a small chance that I'm scum. But you have to weight against that the very real possibility that the two-kill night saw BM targeted and Doctored - what with it being the night we were testing out BM and all.

Heh, the more I manage to convince the town that I'm a Citizen, the more the scum will value my life. But at this time anything that gives them more people to go at can only be a good thing - if I die and the Vig and Miller come through OK, I'll go contented to my rest. :cool:

Queuing

04-09-2007, 09:46 AM

My understanding is that the Day will end at 5pm Eastern, which is a little under 6 and a half hours from now.

I believe that it is 5pm pacific. Not that it matters, either way is less then 12.

Pimaspinner I think it was a good idea for you to tell us who you are investigating, as it will allow the other beat cop to investigate one of the others, or Hocow (for SK).

I know someone has suggested that the GA protect, but I think that is a bad idea because:

Guardian Angel- A one shot deal. May chose 2 people to protect on a single night, but can only use this ability once. If investigated shows up as an Ordinary Citizen.

Its a one shot deal, and shouldn't be used now. Unfortunately it seems if the scum or SK want to kill you tonight BM, they can. IMO the cop is more important. Of course the other miller (if one exists) should block Hocow I suppose.

Santo Rugger

04-09-2007, 09:56 AM

Ack! No more weekends away for me!

FCOD[COLOR]

[COLOR=Blue]JSexton

FCOD

Santo Rugger

04-09-2007, 09:57 AM

Ack! No more weekends away for me!

FCOD

JSexton

FCOD

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 10:12 AM

My understanding is that the Day will end at 5pm Eastern, which is a little under 6 and a half hours from now.

5pm pacific.

Aguecheek

04-09-2007, 10:12 AM

Lynch Fern Forest
Vig FCOD

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 10:13 AM

Its a one shot deal, and shouldn't be used now. Unfortunately it seems if the scum or SK want to kill you tonight BM, they can. IMO the cop is more important. Of course the other miller (if one exists) should block Hocow I suppose.

If I am left unprotected, the mafia would be foolish not to kill me. Similarly, if pimaspinner is left unprotected, they would be foolish not to kill her. That said, we don't want the mafia to kill EITHER of us, so it doesn't make sense to tell the doctor to protect one or the other of us. Instead, the doctor should randomly choose between the two of us, and that way the mafia know that they have only a 50% chance (at best) of killing either of us, and thus they may decide to refrain from attacking either of us for a 100% chance at killing someone else, especially since they know whether or not FCOD is scum or not AND whether Suburban Plankton is scum or not.

Of course, it's still up to the doctor's discretion who he values more, and he may decide something entirely different (since we have no idea who he protected the last two days and whether or not they were the likely targets of the mafia). Either way, as long as we can cast a good amount of doubt on who the mafia are thinking about targetting, they may change their minds.

That said, if I do make it through the night alive, regardless of how FCOD shows up, if we can get at least one mafia kill tonight (between the lynch and the SK), it is time to start considering targetting the SK. That said, the mafia may actually want to leave me alive, because then they can also vote in my targets and with their information of who is mafia, we can possibly get on the trail of the SK (and then later analyze any crumbs they may have left by helping me target the SK to track down mafia). OR, since the SK is really their biggest threat at this point, maybe we can convince the mafia to go after a SK suspect, assuming they're not mafia, like hocow, or someone else they find very suspicious.

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 10:17 AM

13- JSexton - (FCoD, Suburban Plankton. Rysto, sturmhauke, zuma, ArizonaTeach, StarvingButStrong, Menocchio, Blaster Master, Queuing, Fretful Porpentine, pimmaspinner, Pygmy Rugger)

7- Fern Forest - (brewha, JSexton, kat, lakai, glee, Malacandra, Augecheek)
3- Flying Cow of Doom - (hocow, fernforest, Monkey Mench)
1- MadTheSwine - (Autolycus)
1- pimaspinner (Storyteller0910)

Aguecheek

04-09-2007, 10:19 AM

Holy shit. There was another page left to read. I thought I'd finished at #42.

I'll keep my vote where it is. I don't like JSexton, but it looks like he's going the way of the dodo anyways. But I didn't much care for Fern Forest's 11th hour maneuvering either.

Pleonast

04-09-2007, 10:20 AM

Rysto

04-09-2007, 10:27 AM

Yeah, if BM and FCoD are both Mafia we're pretty much screwed. However, pimaspinner would have had to have been fantastically unlucky to get a false Vig read on BM, and pimaspinner can't be Mafia in this scenario, because he wouldn't have outed a fellow Mafioso.

Unless JSexton, BM, FCoD, zuma, pimaspinner and Pleonast are all Mafia, and Smitty is the only Mason left(and hasn't read the thread since the Mason role-claim). :)

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 10:28 AM

I'm more or less up to date now (weekend is a busy time for me, while it looks like everyone else is posting continuously :) ).

The consensus plan sounds good, so I'll confirm it: lynch JSexton, assassinate FlyingCowOfDoom.

But I see one problem with BM/FCOD plan. What if they are both scum? The result "Mafia BM not killing Mafia FCOD" looks exactly the same as the result "Vig BM blocked from killing Miller FCOD". Just to fan the flame of paranoia a bit. ;)

Well, that is something that crossed my mind, but obviously I wasn't worried about it because I know I'm the VIG. Chances are the mafia will target either me or pimaspinner anyway, so it's quite possible that it will be a moot point come morning because I suspect the doctor will find pimaspinner more valuable and protect her.

Queuing

04-09-2007, 10:34 AM

That said, the mafia may actually want to leave me alive, because then they can also vote in my targets and with their information of who is mafia, we can possibly get on the trail of the SK (and then later analyze any crumbs they may have left by helping me target the SK to track down mafia). OR, since the SK is really their biggest threat at this point, maybe we can convince the mafia to go after a SK suspect, assuming they're not mafia, like hocow, or someone else they find very suspicious.

Bolding mine.

I understand the whole random theory, and the mafia not knowing whom the DR might protect. I just don't think its a chance worth taking. The Beat Cops are our best weapons right now. You? Well you have to kill, so while its nice that we get to influence a night kill as well you could just keep killing townies. Your role does not come close to the importance of the Cops right now.

Plus I agree with the above. They might want you alive. They don't want the Cop alive at all.

Sorry, but if our cop dies tonight it is a poor play by the doctor, regardless of how well s/he has been playing before. I don't this is playing into the Mobs hand. There is no doubt in my mind that the beat cop is loads more important then anybody else currently.

Menocchio

04-09-2007, 11:26 AM

Unless, of course, the doctor has been ID'd by the mob and had been protecting him/herself these last two nights.

In which case the doctor should randomly choose between himself, pimaspinner, and possibly BM.

Fern Forest

04-09-2007, 11:31 AM

If he really were interested in what is best for the town, he would have unvoted FCoD. That looks suspicious to me.
I did, you missed it. Today it appears I'm casting no vote but somehow managed to live. Guess I'll see whether I was right to trust chrisk.

Fern Forest

04-09-2007, 11:36 AM

I say we let FCOD live for now. unvote FCOD
Hmm, NAF1138 missed it too. Post 2021.

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 11:40 AM

So I did.

Here is the proper vote

14- JSexton - (FCoD, Suburban Plankton. Rysto, sturmhauke, zuma, ArizonaTeach, StarvingButStrong, Menocchio, Blaster Master, Queuing, Fretful Porpentine, pimmaspinner, Pygmy Rugger, Pleonast)

7- Fern Forest - (brewha, JSexton, kat, lakai, glee, Malacandra, Augecheek)
2- Flying Cow of Doom - (hocow, Monkey Mench)
1- MadTheSwine - (Autolycus)
1- pimaspinner (Storyteller0910)

brewha

04-09-2007, 11:46 AM

Hmm, NAF1138 missed it too. Post 2021.

My bad, I did miss it. It seems moot at this point since it looks like you'll make it thru the day.

If BM and FCoD are both scum, there's a chance that FCoD will and maintain that he survived by being the miller. This will only work if the SK and/or Vig fail at their kills. If FCoD survives and three other people die, we will know the scum is at work. Mafia does have to kill every night, right?

This is all pretty pointless anyway. I'm pretty comfortable trusting BM.

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-09-2007, 11:52 AM

Mafia does have to kill every night, right?No, the Mafia doesn't have to kill every night. Only the Vigilante has to kill every night.

The Rules (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8399889&postcount=72)

--FCOD

Menocchio

04-09-2007, 12:03 PM

If there's only one two (or less) kills tonight, and FCOD survivies, then it could mean that FCOD and MB are both mafia and withheld their kill.

However, for that to be true, pimaspinner is either in on it too (nearly impossible, FCOD wasn't on our radar and likely would not have been lynched tonight if not for pima's claim), or got incredibly unlucky to ping BM as the vig when he's scum claiming to be vig. Even if that is the case, we still managed to get the mafia to not kill one night, which is a major coup for us.

If FCOD survives, he, BM, and I are in the same boat. Not 100% confirmed town, but very likely and should probably be treated as such

MonkeyMensch

04-09-2007, 12:04 PM

::Checks current vote count:: YIKES! What did I miss by going to bed!

::Calls Evelyn Wood::

MonkeyMensch

04-09-2007, 12:11 PM

Yippee! A plan with like, logic and agreement and all the trimmings!
Unvote FCoD.
Vote JSexton.
Vig kill FCoD.

JSexton

04-09-2007, 12:17 PM

Frak. Stupid early-morning meetings.

Claim time. I am the Doctor. Night one, chrisK protected himself. Night Two, Mad theSwine, and there was one less kill. Last night, I self-protected again, and there was one less kill. I think the mafia had an inkling that I was the doc, and tried to kill me. (I don't think they felt terribly threatened by my analysis.)

JSexton

04-09-2007, 12:21 PM

I'm getting a little worried that FCOD is the miller, and JSexton was trying to keep the FCOD lynch going. If FCOD is indeed a miller (which we'll know tonight), then the FCOD bandwagon implicates both JSexton and now Malacandra.

Correction: I supported your plan to test Cow immediately. You may have missed it, since it was the last post on the page.

JSexton

04-09-2007, 12:23 PM

MadTheSwine

04-09-2007, 12:23 PM

Vote Jsexton

Be prepared for a another role claim. I'm guessing he is gonna claim Doc.If that happens, I think the real doc should stay quiet.

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 12:26 PM

JSexton at 17 votes.
Fern Forest at 7.

Everyone else seems to be out of the running at this point.

6 hours and 30 minutes left before nightfall.

Menocchio

04-09-2007, 12:26 PM

Ok. chrisk could have used that strategy to try and find the detective for protection purposes.

The rest... I don't buy it. My vote stands for now. Why would chrisk protect MadtheSwine? Why would the mob tag JSexton as the doc? What are the odds that the doctor, as played by two different men, would target two different people and be right both times?

I guess the "safe" strategy would be to move on to Fern or Plankton, but I think the line of claims has at this point outstripped my credulity. My vote stands.

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 12:30 PM

Oh, and you can end the day early with 27 votes. (I am discounting Smitty and the lynch victim from the unanimous vote count.)

StarvingButStrong

04-09-2007, 12:35 PM

Make it stop. Make it stop!

I have no idea what is going on. I just find it unbelievable that the ONLY people that the town can agree on being suspicious are townies with privileges. Sheesh.

You know what plan most appeals to me right now? We nuke this town from orbit and let God, er, the GM sort it out.

And I am positively relieved that, Monday being one of our 'late' days, it will all be over by the time I can read this board again. Cowardly, but true.

Finally, just in case I end up being the new nominee for lynching, I'd best get my claim in now: I am the Great Pumpkin!

Queuing

04-09-2007, 12:38 PM

Sigh, why o why? Is this game always like this?

Not that I really see enough of us getting back in time to stop this but here goes:

Unvote JSexton

So do we believe him? Well let us see what we have:

Zuma and Pleonast are Masons.
Blaster Master is Vig.
Pimaspinner is a Beat Cop
FCOD is a miller
Menecchio is either citizen or Godfather.
JSexton is the Doctor.

Hmmm, either way the town loses someone important tonight. The question is, do we believe all of these people?

If we choose not to believe JSexton and it turns out he was telling the truth, we will lose the beat cop tonight.

If we choose to believe JSexton, and don't lynch him, whom does he protect? Himself or Pimaspinner. I would say Pimaspinner because unless the doc always protects himself, he will die at some point tonight.

So I have a question. Since so many roles are out there already anyway, and the Mafia know themselves (8 we think), and there are 27 players left. 19 of whom the Mafia might not know. 7 people have claimed. Leaving a field of 12 "unknowns". Is it worthwhile for the other Beat cop to claim, the GA protects them both for the 1 time, JSexton protects himself? Giving us another 3 nights of info to start with. As well as each beat cop getting a 4th night of info, and 1 beat cop getting a 5th night of info? Then the masons start off the vote, knowing who they are, and hopefully we can get scum? Will this let us win? Or WTF do we do now?

kivvik

04-09-2007, 12:42 PM

What a crappy time to have such a large role claim. Only 6.5 hours to go until end of the Day, and you have 7 votes to lose :eek: Hopefully people can get to their computers at work and check the thread in time. JSexton may be suspicious to a lot of people, but don't we have a history of -testing- role claims first? I do not know how to test a Doctor effectively though. All we can tell him is to protect himself, or the others in a random choice extravaganza. And that doesn't tell us a whole lot unless he chooses right. And it still isn't guaranteed. We do have a Cop though, if they want to try and confirm?
That said, I shall vote FernForest and try to slip another target up there to take some of the heat off of a possible Doctor.

Queuing

04-09-2007, 12:44 PM

When does the day end if this countdown does stop?

JSexton

04-09-2007, 12:44 PM

Ok. chrisk could have used that strategy to try and find the detective for protection purposes.
I had that thought as well. Of course, I wasn't about to blurt it out when Zuma was asking for reasons.

The rest... I don't buy it. My vote stands for now. Why would chrisk protect MadtheSwine? Why would the mob tag JSexton as the doc? What are the odds that the doctor, as played by two different men, would target two different people and be right both times?
I have no idea why he chose MadtheSwine.

As for whether I got two successful protections? I don't know. It's entirely possible that either of both of the missing kills aren't attributed to me. The Guardian Angel is one possibility. A successful miller is another. The SK or mafia may have chosen not to kill, or may have simply missed the deadline. There might have been a doublekill on one of the targets.

There's far too many possibilities to be sure.

Menocchio

04-09-2007, 12:46 PM

Let's stop the madness. He's lying and trying to get us to lynch someone like Fern that we don't have as much evidence for.

Aguecheek

04-09-2007, 12:48 PM

Jeezus.

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 12:49 PM

When does the day end if this countdown does stop?

5pm pst today no matter what. You started the clock back up with less than 12 hours to go.

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 12:49 PM

Bolding mine.

I understand the whole random theory, and the mafia not knowing whom the DR might protect. I just don't think its a chance worth taking. The Beat Cops are our best weapons right now. You? Well you have to kill, so while its nice that we get to influence a night kill as well you could just keep killing townies. Your role does not come close to the importance of the Cops right now.

Plus I agree with the above. They might want you alive. They don't want the Cop alive at all.

Sorry, but if our cop dies tonight it is a poor play by the doctor, regardless of how well s/he has been playing before. I don't this is playing into the Mobs hand. There is no doubt in my mind that the beat cop is loads more important then anybody else currently.

I don't disagree with anything you've said. However, the whole point of the random theory isn't that the doctor has to necessarily follow it, simply that we WANT the mafia to be unsure IF we're following that or not, and make them think twice about who they target. This presents two possibly beneficial outcomes: 1) We manage to bluff the mafia, and they target the person the doctor is protecting meaning their kill is moot (much like I imagine it was last night) or 2) They're so unsure that they don't even bother to target either of us, and we lose a vanilla townie instead of mostly confirmed power roles. Considering that most of the town still thinks my "power" is useful at this juncture, combined with my "almost confirmed" status, that is still probably advantageous. Of course, then the possibility exists that the doctor might not protect the more valuable role and the mafia might then target him. However, with the distinct possibility that the mafia would probably waste their hit again if they target either of us, I think they would be foolish to target either of us when the most important role (the doctor) is still out there, undetermined among the unconfirmed townies, and likely unprotected. Obviously, if they can get the doctor, they can then start picking off the rest of us who've claimed, one at a time.

Further, to play more on the random theory, the doctor can choose to weight the randomness; that is, if he thinks the beat cop is worth twice as much as me, he can pull a random number between 1-0, and say anything .333 or less, protect me, and anything greater protect pimaspinner.

Even after all that, I'm willing to make a gambit that I probably don't need protection, and here's my reasoning why. Let's assume FCOD is the miller, and the mafia doesn't targe me. It will still leave a doubt as to whether either of us is mafia or not. Hence, by targetting me, they 100% confirm both pimaspinner and FCOD (because my kill still goes through, even if I die tonight), whereas if they target FCOD, they only confirm pimaspinner, leaving me still somewhat in question. If they target pimaspinner, they confirm both me and FCOD. Further, as I've made clear, if tonight goes even a bit in our favor, I think it's time to start going after the SK, at which point, I'm somewhat advantageous to them because they can try to guide the VIG vote counts toward townies and/or the SK. Also, if they can kill target the SK, my power goes away as well. Thus, I think if we've FOSed any potential SKs that are not mafia, the mafia would be foolish to target one of the three of us (resulting in two confirmed townies if successful, and no kill if not... sort of lose/lose for them). Thus, I'd be surprised if the mafia don't target one of the potential SKs (hocow, Autolycus, or the other named that I can't recall at this moment), assuming they're not actually mafia. However, leaving the possibility that either I or pimaspinner is probably protected makes the proposition of targetting either of us worth even less to the mafia.

As far as the SK, he would also be silly to target me, especially if he's not one of my suspects. It's already been made abundantly clear that the only chance he has of winning is helping the town, because the mafia can just keep pushing off victory until either the town or the mafia kills him. The town cannot do that, because we have no idea how many mafia are left, and have a much harder time targetting them.

Of course, this brain dump may be completely moot, because JSexton is also probably my second candidate for SK, so it's entirely possible I won't get to kill tonight at all.

sturmhauke

04-09-2007, 12:57 PM

Fucking hell. Somebody, somewhere, is lying like crazy, but I don't have time to figure it out right now. I'm already ridiculously late for work.

Unvote JSexton. I don't necessarily believe you, but I can't tell if you're telling the truth or not.

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 01:02 PM

For the love of God... I didn't have you pegged on the doctor at all and, in fact, this seems like an incredulous claim and thus makes you MORE likely to be scum in my eyes. That said, I'm still going to unvote JSexton and revote Suburban Plankton, because you still have enough votes for death, but I don't want to be the one vote that failed to unvote in the case that the town can get someone else lynched.

Why, oh why, couldn't we go after Suburban Plankton? Let me guess, he woulda claimed doctor, or miller, or GA too, right?

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-09-2007, 01:09 PM

What a load of hogshit.

Isn't it obvious? chrisk/JSexton has been suspicious since the very beginning, and now he's just trying to save his ass with an unverifiable role claim. At least I'm willing to die to prove my role, but we can't afford to lose the one and only Doctor in that fashion.

It's a load of crap, if you ask me. Too little too late. My vote stands.

--FCOD

JSexton

04-09-2007, 01:12 PM

Isn't it obvious? chrisk/JSexton has been suspicious since the very beginning, and now he's just trying to save his ass with an unverifiable role claim. At least I'm willing to die to prove my role, but we can't afford to lose the one and only Doctor in that fashion.

That sounds like a confession to me. If your role is what you say it is, you won't die.

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 01:13 PM

JSexton

04-09-2007, 01:13 PM

For the love of God... I didn't have you pegged on the doctor at all
I'd hope not. No one worth his salt should be breadcrumbing or otherwise advertsing medical skills.

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-09-2007, 01:15 PM

That sounds like a confession to me. If your role is what you say it is, you won't die.Like I said before, I'm confident that the Mafia or the SK will take me out in BM's stead.

--FCOD

Queuing

04-09-2007, 01:20 PM

Lets not lynch FernForest

Here is why:
Post 2036 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8443811&postcount=2036) . S/he is the first one to come up with the idea of the lynch test for FCOD. One we all agree is a good one. Yes Zuma did put it together (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8443881&postcount=2044) nicer and neater, but the first hint of the idea is here.

Plus I think his idea of trading kills is not something the mafia would do. YMMV of course.

I suppose this is going to be hard to turn around, but the number one accuser of FernForest was JSexton here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8443898&postcount=2046) and here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8443921&postcount=2052)

I think we should lynch MonkeyMensch or Suburban Plankton.

Monkey Mensch for this very odd vote,here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8444080&postcount=2071) hours after FCOD had claimed. As well what is up with the “Thanks for the update JSexton?” Is there talk outside of the board, or did I miss something JSexton said that was very enlightening? ArizonaTeach also found it odd here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8444594&postcount=2099)

Suburban Plankton because of the case outlined here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8444082&postcount=2072) by BM. As well as glee here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8443047&postcount=1993)

So far what its worth:

Lynch SuburbanPlankton

Mostly because I know BM is already behind it and it has a better chance of working in the limited time we have.
I suppose no one liked my "a lot of roles claim" idea? Sigh, I suppose that means we lose someone important tonight. I just hope it isn't the cop. Of course it will be tomorrow I suppose. Hmm, maybe we shouldn't have BM test FCOD for now, but have the millers go at whom the top Scum suspects are at the moment.

Of course who that it is is debatable, but I would say its MonkeyMensch, FernForest (if still alive), sturmhauke or Aguecheek.

JSexton

04-09-2007, 01:24 PM

I just hope we were right about JSexton, or we can pretty much kiss this game good bye. If he IS the doctor, say goodbye to pimaspinner too.

Do we maybe want to discuss a contingency plan vice me targetting FCOD in the event that he IS the doctor? I'm not sure that verifying FCOD is necessarily the best course of action if that is the case. Anyone, particularly the masons, have an opinion on that?
I think you still very much want to verify Cow. If you lynch me, you almost certainly lose the cop tonight, barring the GA intervening. Verified townies will be in short supply once that happens.

And I still am fairly confident that you'll score a kill on scum by targeting Cow.

I realize you don't particularly believe me now, but come back to this after I die, ok? You'll believe me then.

glee

04-09-2007, 01:27 PM

Is anyone else getting the ooky feeling that we're doing the same thing now that we did "yesterday", just with a shorter time window? We were going along pretty well, having some rational discussion, then all of a sudden, people are at each other's throats, names are getting tossed out left and right, the whole discussion devolves into finger pointing.

We went, in pretty short order, from pimaspinner, to Flying Cow Of Doom, to Fern Forest and JSexton. Of those four, I think only JSexton was really high on anyone's radar before. I think someone is steel tying to pull our strings, and generate as much confusion as possible, and once again we're helping them along (myself included).

Of the four names above, we know we have at least one scum, whether it be pimaspinner of FCOD. Right now, it's a coinflip between them. Fern Forest certainly seems suspicious with the "lynch JSexton to prove I'm right about sturmhauke" idea, and I am still convinced that JSexton is Mafia. Maybe we get lucky and find three bad guys in this list. That would be a refreshing change.

I think this is yet another dodgy post by you. Either you are a badly confused Town or a crafty Mafia.

First I don't see any 'finger-pointing' or lack of rational discussion. (Feel free to point to the posts that bother you.)

Next, why does there have to be 'at least one scum out of Pimaspinner or Flying Cow of Doom'?
If Flying Cow of Doom is (as claimed) a Miller, then Pimaspinner can be a good Beat Cop.

This is Blaster Master's suspicions of you (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8444082&postcount=2072)

And my earlier suspicions too (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8443047&postcount=1993)

Unvote Fern Forest
Lynch Suburban Plankton
Vig Flying Cow of Doom

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 01:27 PM

I'd hope not. No one worth his salt should be breadcrumbing or otherwise advertsing medical skills.
No one worth his salt in such a power role should be looking so scummy either; he should be trying to stay under everyone's radar. Introducing the open detection system is an even worse idea than we thought, if he really was the doctor. Even if it didn't look scummy, it still makes him look like a power role to the mafia.

That still doesn't make sense why chrisk would protect MtS on the second night, AT ALL. If he did, if you are the doctor, I sure hope he posts why in the forbidden thread so I can read it after I die tomorrow night. Further, since YOU were one of the proponents saying I should be protected last night, why would you have self protected. The ONLY reason they might have targetted you was because of your "vaunted skill", but your analysis showed up dead wrong, which would make even less sense for them to target you because your analysis would be helpful to hiding them since it seems some people revered your analysis too highly.

Queuing

04-09-2007, 01:35 PM

Bah, never mind about my role claim idea. All that would seem to get us is 2 dead beat cops 2 nights from now. So screw that.

Sigh, this is crazy. How can everyone be in a power role? BAH!

I see no choice but to believe JSexton for now. I still think he needs to protect Pima though, but I suppose the randomness thing may be better. However if we lose the cop we be screwed.

Hockey Monkey

04-09-2007, 01:36 PM

Og, get me off this roller coaster ride, I think I'm gonna be sick. Can we go back to plan A and lynch me? :p (Just kidding)

I had a suspicion that Jsexton was the Doctor.

unvote Jsexton
vote Suburban Plankton

I'll investigate whoever doesn't get lynched between Suburban Plankton and Fern Forest.

Menocchio

04-09-2007, 01:39 PM

If JSexton does not get lynched (which he should), then pima has to investigate him tonight. And possibly the next night if it comes up anything except "mafia" "doctor" or "serial killer".

Which means pima has to survive the night to tell us about what happens.

JSexton

04-09-2007, 01:43 PM

No one worth his salt in such a power role should be looking so scummy either; he should be trying to stay under everyone's radar. Introducing the open detection system is an even worse idea than we thought, if he really was the doctor. Even if it didn't look scummy, it still makes him look like a power role to the mafia.
I've said all along that I thought it was a terrible idea from him. No argument from me on this point.

That still doesn't make sense why chrisk would protect MtS on the second night, AT ALL. If he did, if you are the doctor, I sure hope he posts why in the forbidden thread so I can read it after I die tomorrow night.

I'd like to know that as well.
Further, since YOU were one of the proponents saying I should be protected last night, why would you have self protected.
Because I didn't really believe you until this morning, when nesta showed up dead.

I protected myself because I didn't have any better people to protect, frankly. There weren't any claimed power roles, aside from a vig I didn't trust. Also, I didn't yet know that I was continuing to be wrong, as I didn't know about Winston until the morning. I'd hoped that I'd turned my streak around with him.

Queuing

04-09-2007, 01:44 PM

ArizonaTeach

04-09-2007, 01:45 PM

You know what hurts? Banging my head on the desk.

unvote JSexton
vote Suburban Plankton

Good luck to whoever's keeping the spreadsheet of votes and unvotes, because today's gonna be a mess.

If JSexton is the doctor, I seriously, seriously propose we look very hard at all the people who were so vehemently opposed to the idea in the last several posts.

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 01:45 PM

ArizonaTeach

04-09-2007, 01:49 PM

11- JSexton - (FCoD, Suburban Plankton. Rysto, zuma, ArizonaTeach, StarvingButStrong, Menocchio,Fretful Porpentine, Pygmy Rugger, Pleonast, MTS)
8 - Fern Forest - (brewha, JSexton, kat, lakai, glee, Malacandra, Augecheek, kivvik)
4 - Suburban plankton – (BM, queuing, glee, pimaspinner)

In case anyone wanted to know...Actually, after looking at that, and thinking it might be better off to get rid of Fern than hope that enough people unvote JSexton, I am changing my vote YET AGAIN!

unvote Suburban Plankton
vote Fern Forest.

This should be JSexton=10, Fern Forest=8 (after seeing NAF's resply). Just two more switches from JSexton and the Doc (maybe) will be saved.

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 01:51 PM

Well, I still don't think Fern Forest is scum, but at this point, I'd rather lynch her than JSexton... of course, I still think Suburban Plankton is the best lynch candidate, but I'll switch to Fern Forest if it means we can protect our beat cop for at least one more night.

Hockey Monkey

04-09-2007, 01:52 PM

You have glee twice

Fern Forest only has 7.

And 12 for Jsexton - Monkey Mensch voted in post 2149.

On preview now 11 for Jsexton, and 8 for Fern Forest.

I am keeping up with this post by post.

Queuing

04-09-2007, 01:57 PM

If you think Suburban is the better choice, I would say leave your vote as him for right now. We still have 5 hours. So unless you can't get back between then and now, leave it, and maybe the other people will change with us.

I will be at my computer for another 2 hours, but then I will be away. If JSexton is still in the lead, and FernForest second, I will change at that time. As stated better FF then the doc.

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 02:00 PM

Let's get something a bit more official up here.

10- JSexton - (FCoD, Suburban Plankton, Rysto, zuma, StarvingButStrong, Menocchio, Fretful Porpentine, Pygmy Rugger, Pleonast, Monkey Mench)

8- Fern Forest - (brewha, JSexton, kat, lakai, Malacandra, Augecheek, kivvik, ArizonaTeach)

4- Suburban Plankton - (Blaster Master, Queuing, glee, pimmaspinner)

1- Flying Cow of Doom - (hocow)
1- MadTheSwine - (Autolycus)
1- pimaspinner - (Storyteller0910)

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 02:12 PM

The test for JSexton is simple. He does the random protection on me and pimaspinner or just on pimaspinner. At that point, knowing he's not protected and likely the doctor (assuming he isn't mafia), the mafia would be retarded not to target him tonight. That is, if we lynch him today, we're doing their work for them and the mafia essentially HAVE to kill him if he's not mafia, otherwise they'll never be able to kill our cop. So why not let the mafia do our dirty work for us for once.

Thus, I propose this plan:

Lynch Fern Forest or Suburban Plankton.
JSexton, if he is doc, makes his choice between me and pimaspinner with whatever weight he wants.
I target FCOD, and FCOD targets me.
And pimaspinner should investigate whichever one of the above lynch candidates doesn't get lynched.

Rysto

04-09-2007, 02:22 PM

I don't like it -- I don't believe the role-claim for a moment -- but I'll go along with it.

Unvote JSexton
Vote Suburban Plankton

I would vote for storytellter0910, but I'd prefer to vote for someone who has a chance of being lynched. I think that Fern Forest should wait until JSexton's claim has been tried.

One thing I don't like about this is that if JSexton really is the Doctor, the Mafia could leave him alone and then we'll end up lynching him tomorrow.

Queuing

04-09-2007, 02:24 PM

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-09-2007, 02:28 PM

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 02:31 PM

One thing I don't like about this is that if JSexton really is the Doctor, the Mafia could leave him alone and then we'll end up lynching him tomorrow.
I think that's a possibility, but a small one. Why would they want to wait for us to lynch him tomorrow, even if they do prove he was telling the truth, they then have unrestricted access to any future claims, which means tomorrow they kill pimaspinner, and the next day they kill me. Regardless, it really seems in the best interest of the mafia to kill him, especially since the only way for him to prove himself to us is to protect pimaspinner. It sucks if he really is the doctor, but an outed doctor is pretty much useless to us, at least compared to a cop, because the mafia have a VERY short list of who he is potentially protecting.

Maybe a cop could investigate him and prove he is the doctor, thus even if he doesn't die tonight, he may still be able to prove useful tomorrow if he's telling the truth, or we lynch him (if the mafia decides to gambit that we'll lynch him if they don't kill him). The problem with that, of course, is we waste the cop we're specifically sacrificing the doctor to save, and then asking him to try to protect the cop. So really, it's probably a moot point.

Lakai

04-09-2007, 02:33 PM

Guys we don't have much time to get the Suburban Plankton bandwagon started.

Get your votes toward Fern Forest now. He hasn't claimed a role and we shouldn't expect him to at his final hour.

What a load of hogshit.

Isn't it obvious? chrisk/JSexton has been suspicious since the very beginning, and now he's just trying to save his ass with an unverifiable role claim. At least I'm willing to die to prove my role, but we can't afford to lose the one and only Doctor in that fashion.

It's a load of crap, if you ask me. Too little too late. My vote stands.

--FCOD

This pretty much says Jsexton is really the Doc if FCOD is mafia. Waiting for tomorrow to find out is better than risking it and lynching him now.

And what's this BS about FCOD willing to die? If he is the miller he will live. He has his mind set on dying because he knows he is finished.

Queuing

04-09-2007, 02:33 PM

This doesn't make sense to me. Isn't the Doctor more important than a Beat Cop? Why would he agree to give himself up to the Mafia tonight?

--FCOD

IMO, no. The only good a doctor does is keep other people alive, while a beat cop gathers info that is at least 50/50. Info is what we need. If we lose the beat cop we wouldn't have found you, and while you claim to be a miller, that will be found out. The cop can tell us tomorrow who is and isn't a citizen. We hope at least.

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 02:36 PM

This doesn't make sense to me. Isn't the Doctor more important than a Beat Cop? Why would he agree to give himself up to the Mafia tonight?
Because, if he's telling the truth, it's a 50/50 chance between himself and pimaspinner who he's protecting. If the doctor dies, we still get one more night investigation from pimaspinner; if the cop dies, who is worth protecting then... me, the VIG? But I'm still not worth as much as the cop, because I HAVE to kill. In other words, the cop is useful with or without the doctor, but the doctor is worth less every time a power role dies. Essentially, once pimaspinner is dead, the doctor isn't worth nearly as much because we don't have any "super useful" power roles to protect.

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-09-2007, 02:37 PM

IMO, no. The only good a doctor does is keep other people alive, while a beat cop gathers info that is at least 50/50. Info is what we need. If we lose the beat cop we wouldn't have found you, and while you claim to be a miller, that will be found out. The cop can tell us tomorrow who is and isn't a citizen. We hope at least.We possibly have another cop. We have only one doctor. Once the doctor is gone, the cops won't last very long. I think it'd be better to keep our doctor around...

And dammit, how many times do I have to say, I'm not worried about Blaster Master killing me...

--FCOD

Queuing

04-09-2007, 02:42 PM

We possibly have a GA as well. Who can use DOC powers 1 time, for 2 people. Hopefully this will be used on the 2 cops. Its all we have left really.

And who honestly believes JSexton more then Pimaspinner? I sure as hell don't. So I am willing to take the risk he dies and is the doc.

Fretful Porpentine

04-09-2007, 02:43 PM

Oh no...

All right. I don't like this, and I don't believe either FlyingCowOfDoom's or JSexton's role claim for a minute, but I think it's only fair to test all the claims without acting rashly, and these both strike me as eminently testable. Thus:

Unvote JSexton

Vote SuburbanPlankton, who strikes me as marginally more likely to be scum than FernForest (and if either of them claims to be the Guardian Angel, I shall scream).

First night: Vig-kill FCOD and have him block Blaster Master, as planned. If he survives, great, accept his claim. Meanwhile, have pimaspinner investigate JSexton. If he does, in fact, come up as Doctor or Mafia, go with that -- it's not absolutely conclusive, but I think we've got to play the odds if we're going to have any chance of getting anything done.

Second night: If pimaspinner's results are inconclusive and JSexton is still alive, Vig-kill him and have him use his doctor powers to protect himself. Some may object that this is tantamount to giving the Mafia a free hand to kill one of the other players in power roles, but unfortunately I don't see any way to avoid this, and it's probably[/b] better to risk losing one of the other players than to kill the Doctor ourselves.

If anybody sees any additional flaws in this plan, speak up -- I [i]think it covers everything, but I'm increasingly sure I don't understand this game.

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 02:46 PM

JSexton and Fern Forest are now tied with 8 votes each.

Suburban Plankton has 6 votes.

Remember if the day ends in a tie I will randomly choose between the two candidates.

Queuing

04-09-2007, 02:48 PM

I for one see no use in investigating JSexton. We can hash out the truth of his claim tomorrow. If he lives that is. IMO Pimaspinner is much more useful finding out something about someone who hasn't claimed. Such as Suburban or FernForest. Eliminate another unknown if you will.

brewha

04-09-2007, 02:50 PM

The thing that really sucks at this point is that Jsexton has pretty much made himself useless. If we do believe him (frankly I'm dubious) all he can do at this point is protect himself and keep one townie alive.

If he's mafia, the doc role claim is brilliant. The real doctor should NOT counter claim him. Jsexton is an experienced player and knows this. From a mafia standpoint one scum for the doc is a great trade.

If he really is the doc, he's a top priority for a mafia hit. I guess if he keeps protecting himself, that's one less townie killed every night. Unless the mafia knows he will in which case they will target someone else and he is free to protect someone else. Stupid Sicillian wine glasses!

I'm sticking with my FernForest vote, but SubPlankton may be a good candidate for lynching as well.

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 02:59 PM

If anybody sees any additional flaws in this plan, speak up -- I think it covers everything, but I'm increasingly sure I don't understand this game.
On further reflection, I don't like the idea of a cop investigating JSexton. As long as he is alive (assuming he is the doctor), he can protect pimaspinner, which means we get more information each day. Once the mafia finally decides to kill him, then we only get one more night of info out of pimaspinner. Thus, I expect the mafia will take him out tonight if he isn't mafia. If he actually is mafia, and is bluffing, the real doctor can still protect pimaspinner, and then out JSexton later, at which case we lynch the one we believe less, and are bound to get scum between the two of them.

hocow

04-09-2007, 03:04 PM

Guys, what FCOD is trying to say is that the mafia or SK could take him out if they wanted to. BM isn't the only one that can kill him.

Also, I agree that the mafia would be stupid to not take out the doctor if they know who it is. So, I will unvote FCOD and vote Fern Forest.

MadTheSwine

04-09-2007, 03:04 PM

I do not believe Jsexton. I voted to lynch chrisk in post #287,FOS'ed him in post #306 and #320 and he retaliates by protecting me :confused: .

Hockey Monkey

04-09-2007, 03:07 PM

On further reflection, I don't like the idea of a cop investigating JSexton. As long as he is alive (assuming he is the doctor), he can protect pimaspinner, which means we get more information each day. Once the mafia finally decides to kill him, then we only get one more night of info out of pimaspinner. Thus, I expect the mafia will take him out tonight if he isn't mafia. If he actually is mafia, and is bluffing, the real doctor can still protect pimaspinner, and then out JSexton later, at which case we lynch the one we believe less, and are bound to get scum between the two of them.

I'm still planning to investigate whoever doesn't get lynched between Suburban Plankton and Fern Forest...that is if we can get Jsexton unvoted in time.

If we can't, and Jsexton swings, I'll investigate Suburban Plankton.

Hockey Monkey

04-09-2007, 03:12 PM

Updated vote count...as of post 2204

Jsexton - 9 - FCOD, sub plankton, madtheswine, menocchio, zuma, starvingbutstrong, monkeymensch, pygmy rugger, pleonast

Fern Forest - 9 - brewha, jsexton, kat, lakai, malacandra, aguecheek, kivvik, arizonateach, hocow

Suburban Plankton - 6 - Blaster Master, Queuing, glee, pimaspinner, Rysto, Fretful Porpentine

pimaspinner - 1 - storyteller0910

madtheswine - autolycus

let me know if I missed one.

Queuing

04-09-2007, 03:18 PM

JSexton and Fern Forest are now tied with 8 votes each.

Suburban Plankton has 6 votes.

Remember if the day ends in a tie I will randomly choose between the two candidates.

According to NAF (7 posts before yours), JSexton is at 8. Fern Forest has since received a vote, so he should be at 9.

This is what I have:

9- Fern Forest - (brewha, JSexton, kat, lakai, Malacandra, Augecheek, kivvik, ArizonaTeach, Hocow)
8- JSexton - (FCoD, Suburban Plankton, zuma, StarvingButStrong, Menocchio, Pygmy Rugger, Pleonast, Monkey Mench)
6 - Suburban Plankton - (Blaster Master, Queuing, glee, pimmaspinner, rysto, Fretful Porcupine)

Malacandra

04-09-2007, 03:19 PM

Someone asked upthread if everyone was claiming power roles. Nope, not me! Plain vanilla Citizen. Come an' 'ave a go, scum! You know it makes sense.

Gotta say I find Jsexton's Doctor claim as fishy as the All-You-Can-Eat-For-50-Kroner Special at Uncle Olaf's Lutefisk Restaurant. :dubious: A guy as savvy as him has to know that an identified Doctor is hardly any more use to the town than no Doctor at all, and I'm astonished he couldn't whip up some alternative to keep him off the gallows. Still, I'll leave my votes where they are for now. Good luck, town.

FlyingCowOfDoom

04-09-2007, 03:19 PM

I do not believe Jsexton. I voted to lynch chrisk in post #287,FOS'ed him in post #306 and #320 and he retaliates by protecting me :confused: .I missed this, but thank you for confirming my doubt of JSexton. It doesn't make any sense for him to be the Doctor.

--FCOD

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 03:21 PM

Agh! I was just a bot to switch my vote to Fern Forest (good thing I previewed), but if we're sure JSexton has less, then I'd rather leave it on Suburban Plankton in the event some of the JSexton voters can switch to get him instead. I'm cautiously believing Fern Forest is just a misguided townie, but I suppose we'll find out presently.

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 03:22 PM

Agh! I was just about to switch my vote to Fern Forest (good thing I previewed), but if we're sure JSexton has less, then I'd rather leave it on Suburban Plankton in the event some of the JSexton voters can switch to get him instead. I'm cautiously believing Fern Forest is just a misguided townie, but I suppose we'll find out presently.

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 03:23 PM

According to NAF (7 posts before yours), JSexton is at 8. Fern Forest has since received a vote, so he should be at 9.

This is what I have:

9- Fern Forest - (brewha, JSexton, kat, lakai, Malacandra, Augecheek, kivvik, ArizonaTeach, Hocow)
8- JSexton - (FCoD, Suburban Plankton, zuma, StarvingButStrong, Menocchio, Pygmy Rugger, Pleonast, Monkey Mench)
6 - Suburban Plankton - (Blaster Master, Queuing, glee, pimmaspinner, rysto, Fretful Porcupine)

That is the count I have, unless I missed someone.

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 03:23 PM

oops... sorry about the double post... not sure how that got through. :(

Malacandra

04-09-2007, 03:28 PM

Hockey Monkey

04-09-2007, 03:32 PM

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 03:35 PM

Post 2153, MadTheSwine voted for Jsexton. That would put him at 9.

Right you are. JSexton and Fern Forrest are each tied at 9. Suburban Plankton has 6

Pleonast

04-09-2007, 03:36 PM

I don't believe JSexton's role claim.

However, let's have more time to think about it. So, unvote JSexton, vote Suburban Plankton, and still assassinate FlyingCowOfDoom.

MonkeyMensch

04-09-2007, 03:37 PM

I think we should lynch MonkeyMensch or Suburban Plankton.

Monkey Mensch for this very odd vote,here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8444080&postcount=2071) hours after FCOD had claimed. As well what is up with the “Thanks for the update JSexton?” Is there talk outside of the board, or did I miss something JSexton said that was very enlightening? ArizonaTeach also found it odd here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8444594&postcount=2099)

To clarify, I had asked JSexton in .#1935 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8440106&postcount=1935) for an update on his position re Blaster Master.

He kindly replied in #2039 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8443828&postcount=2039) and I was acknowledging that response, nothing more.

As for being behind on thread, as pointed out by Arizona Teach, it's true: I have a personal life that I attend to on occasion. ;) If politeness and having a life are scum-tells then Judgement, thou art fled to brutish beasts.

Santo Rugger

04-09-2007, 03:40 PM

<snip>Either way, it looks like he thinks it's more likely that I'm mafia than the vigilante; but just six posts later, it changes from "most likely mafia" to "might be scum, but most likely vigilante". Either way, it looks to me like he couldn't keep his story straight after the town started to put the pressure on him.<snip>

Upon a reread of this weekend's activity, I'm going to unvote JSexton and lynch Suburban Plankton. The reasons have already been pretty well laid out by others already.

JSexton

04-09-2007, 03:43 PM

Gotta say I find Jsexton's Doctor claim as fishy as the All-You-Can-Eat-For-50-Kroner Special at Uncle Olaf's Lutefisk Restaurant. :dubious: A guy as savvy as him has to know that an identified Doctor is hardly any more use to the town than no Doctor at all, and I'm astonished he couldn't whip up some alternative to keep him off the gallows. Still, I'll leave my votes where they are for now. Good luck, town.
I don't believe in lying as town.

But let's roll with that. What are the potential claims, given our open setup?

Vanilla, well, pretty sure that wouldn't have caused 5 unvotes.
The Cop is dead.
Claiming Beat cop would require falsifying results, which is obviously bad.
Claiming miller would only invite the same method of testing as we are going to use on Cow.
Claiming Angel is just as much of a target as Doc.
Somehow, I think Zuma would be happy to crucify me if I claimed Mason.
Claiming Mafia or SK seems counter productive.

So. What exactly would you suggest? I'm not thrilled at being forced to claim here, as my options just got a lot more limited, but you tell me what a better play was were, since you're expressing an opinion about it.

And no, I will not be giving a public protection choice tonight. I will be selecting from a short list that you can probably guess the contents of, but I absolutely will not state publicly who will be targeted. Otherwise, I may as well be vanilla.

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 03:46 PM

Vote count (because the count 15 min ago was very different)

9- Fern Forest - (brewha, JSexton, kat, lakai, Malacandra, Augecheek, kivvik, ArizonaTeach, hocow)

8- Suburban Plankton - (Blaster Master, Queuing, glee, pimmaspinner, Rysto, Fretful Porpentine, Pleonast, Pygmy Rugger)

7- JSexton - (FCoD, Suburban Plankton, zuma, StarvingButStrong, Menocchio, Monkey Mench, MTS)

1- pimaspinner - (Storyteller0910)

1- MadTheSwine - (Autolycus)

Malacandra

04-09-2007, 03:48 PM

I didn't say anything to the effect that you ought to have submitted a fake role claim, JSexton - only that I'm surprised to see you painted into a corner whence the only escape was to claim Doctor. (I'm astonished that chrisk felt himself unable to continue as Doc. You wouldn't have got a peachy role like that out of my hands with a crowbar.)

MonkeyMensch

04-09-2007, 03:48 PM

Unvote JSexton, for the nonce.

Hockey Monkey

04-09-2007, 03:54 PM

3 hours and 10 minutes to go. I'm hoping that we can spare Fern Forest for today and lynch Plankton, so if anyone would like to rethink their votes...now would be a good time. I do think that both are mafia, but I am not as sure about FF. Either way is fine though and I will investigate the other.

MonkeyMensch

04-09-2007, 04:07 PM

Vote Suburban Plankton.

ArizonaTeach

04-09-2007, 04:12 PM

I'd rather take Plankton out, so I'm glad the vote has swung around.

unvote Fern Forest
vote suburban plankton

And I'm satisfied for the moment with MonkeyMensch's answer.

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 04:12 PM

Fern Forest and Suburban Plankton now tied with 9 votes each. A little more than 2:45 left in the day.

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 04:14 PM

Well the simul post screwed that one up.

Sububan Plankton now has 10 votes

Fern Forest 8.

Still about 2:45 left in the day.

Rysto

04-09-2007, 04:14 PM

ArizonaTeach's switch should bring it to 10-8, right?

Menocchio

04-09-2007, 04:14 PM

Ok. Let's work through the possibilities of JSexton lives, and does not protect himself:

JSexton is the Doctor:
Is killed by mafia/SK. -Dies after protecting pima from the other scum, is revealed as town.
Is ignored by scum.- We lynch tomorrow, but still get one more night of protection

JSexton is Mafia:
Lives tonight- We lynch him tomorrow.
Is killed by SK- Revealed as scum.

JSexton is Serial Killer:
Is killed by mafia- Revealed as SK, we lose Vig on subsequent nights, but BM is proven town.
Is ignored tonight- We kill tomorrow.

Ok. The worst of these scenarios for the town is if JSexton is the doctor, and even that one gets us one more night of service from him. I can live with that providing that we are serious about killing JSexton tomorrow. By vig tomorrow night if not by lynch. We can't keep going around and around with "but we can kill him tomorrow" forever. Clear?

JSexton, you get a very temporary reprieve. If you are the doctor, don't protect yourself and make us waste a lynch on you tomorrow. Do your duty for the town and see to it that our cop survives.

Unvote JSexton
Vote Suburban Plankton

I favor Plankton over Forest because Forest seems more like a confused town.

sturmhauke

04-09-2007, 05:06 PM

Regardless of Fern Forest's ongoing campaign against me, I don't really think he's Mafia. I have stronger suspicions against Suburban Plankton, but I'm not certain there either. But if that's the choice we're left with in this 11th hour, I'll vote Suburban Plankton.

Kat

04-09-2007, 05:39 PM

Crap. What is it, I'm the only one who didn't get a power role?

Well, at least I can do this much:
Unvote Fern Forest
Vote Suburban Plankton

We can lynch Fern Forest just as well tomorrow, right?

I also really really really wanna know why chrisk protected MadTheSwine. Was he nuts?

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 06:02 PM

60 minutes left in the day.

Plankton at 13
Forest at 7
JSexton at 6

Also SMITTY, you have one hour to make 3 posts. Good luck.

JSexton

04-09-2007, 06:02 PM

JSexton, you get a very temporary reprieve. If you are the doctor, don't protect yourself and make us waste a lynch on you tomorrow. Do your duty for the town and see to it that our cop survives.

You do what you have to, but I will not be directed. Directing me in public means I'm vanilla.

Autolycus

04-09-2007, 06:38 PM

If he really is the doc, he's a top priority for a mafia hit. I guess if he keeps protecting himself, that's one less townie killed every night. Unless the mafia knows he will in which case they will target someone else and he is free to protect someone else. Stupid Sicillian wine glasses!

[RP-Off]

As said before by somebody in this thread, the best bet in this situation is to choose randomly, that is, unless you have built up an immunity to mafia :D

[RP-On]

Blaster Master

04-09-2007, 06:39 PM

You do what you have to, but I will not be directed. Directing me in public means I'm vanilla.
I DO agree with this. Even if JSexton does ultimately follow the general wishes of the town, by leaving some degree of uncertainty. That said, depending on how much the mafia value our various roles, he may still be able to block who we request and STILL be able to block the mafia. However, regardless of how tonight ends up, he'll still look suspicious tomorrow, and I don't really want to go through all the scenarios, so we should just wait it out, and see how the night plays out before go on with the finger pointing.

kivvik

04-09-2007, 06:46 PM

Hey, back in before the lynching deadline. Currently keeping my vote with FF, just to remind them that they are not safe yet, and because piling another vote on Suburban Plankton is pointless at this juncture. So we're likely to have two scum down, or a scum and a Miller. Not the best 1:1 trade, but that still favors us, right? (Assuming that the Mafia/SK take out FCoD, which might not be the best target for the Mafia, but the SK would enjoy knowing that if they were to be outed they would at least get that night's kill instead of being both blocked and Vigged. Sadistic bastard.) I trust that JSexton will do what he must; it certainly sounds like he's had this type of role before.

And as for FF's chances tomorrow, we'll see what our information pipeline has to say about them. (I can never remember genders, so hurray for neutral pronouns and such. Well, actually, Malacandra is a He, that much I know :p )

Suburban Plankton

04-09-2007, 06:49 PM

Dang, I guess I should have taken a leave of absence for the duration of the game. The last time I looked at the thread, some time this morning, I was in third place! That'll teach me to put my priorities in order.

By my clock, I've got 13 minutes left to make my role-claim, put in my defense, hack into the SDMB database and steal the passwords of all of the other participants, and cast 4 votes for Fern Forest to save my neck until tomorrow.

Or, I can head over to the bar and see how many shots I can drink before sundown.

Yea, that'll be the one. Barkeep, line 'em up! If anyone's looking for me, I'll be the catatonic one under the table.

Cheers!

Autolycus

04-09-2007, 06:56 PM

Cheezits, we got more roles comin' out than a bread basket in Ethiopa. This joint's poppin' like Orville Reddenbaker. So much bulllshit flyin around, I's almost tempted to call myself mafia, just to sees the look on everyone's face.

For's what it's worth, I dont trust JSexton farther than I's can throw him, but I think he's more valuable alives than dead. Aint I a sweetheart, eh? I hate's seeing Plankton go to's the big whale in the sky, but I's cant think of no betta target. That lynch mob's barootal!

Hah, I bet's this be tha only time I could get away with this, so I's got an idea for sum fun. This'll teach them linch mobs to keep on pesterin' me and shit.

Unvote MadTheSwine
Vote Autolycus!

Dont think youz safe either, pig boy. One false move and WHAM, straight to tha moon.

storyteller0910

04-09-2007, 06:56 PM

Holy crap. Uh... it looks like... some stuff has happened. I'm just gonna... geez.

No vote from me today, as I don't have nearly enough time to digest what's happened these last couple of pages and make a useful contribution before the deadline.

I'm confused, and apparently always wrong.

JSexton

04-09-2007, 06:57 PM

Suburban Plankton

04-09-2007, 06:58 PM

Sorry, but I just couldn't go out withoput making a role claim. It's the "in" thing these day, you know.

So here it goes...

I am Smitty.

So, which way to the gallows?

Fretful Porpentine

04-09-2007, 06:59 PM

Uh-oh, now I'm starting to think Suburban Plankton is the only innocent citizen we've threatened to lynch all day, seeing as how he's the only one who hasn't tried to roll-claim.

NAF1138

04-09-2007, 07:00 PM

And so the sun set on another day in Doperville. Today was a day of revelation and activity. Unlike the previous days, this one seemed to last longer, and tempers seemed cooler. Early on caution was exercised and reason employed.
The mistake from the previous day’s execution was too great to allow even a glimmer of hope into the now darkened hearts of the good people of Doperville. True, one mafia member had been killed, but what good had that done?! Not enough good to make up for the poor lost souls from the previous days.

As the day wore on it seemed as though nearly everyone in town had a special power. But how to know if any of them were telling the truth? No one was sure. The town voted to lynch person after person, each making person making a power claim, until they finally settled on two that seemingly had no powers.

In the end, they chose to put up Suburban Plankton for a lynching. He said little as he walked to the gallows (he’d had much to drink) and as the floor dropped out from under him the town was shocked to discover the truth…

Suburban Plankton-Mafia has been lynched.

Get your night votes in. Night will last until 5pm PST on Wednesday or until all the votes are in, whichever comes first.

Also, I think I found an alternate for Smitty. I will let you know sometime during the night.