Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

[Kyrie Eleison]

Kyrie You're overthinking my post. Someone had asked about what masons were likely to do and I just posted what I thought they might do in order to devise a win for themselves rather than the whole town.
Yeah, I was the one who asked. Thanks for the response, too. FWIW, I didn't find your response at all suspicious, despite later using it to illustrate a point. I had also displayed some confusion about the matter.

BTW, since it's come up a few times, I'm male. I point this out just to save some of you the trouble of type "he/she." I'll happily respond to pronouns of either gender in the future, without further correction.

[Blaster Master]

I'm glad to see the Lightnin' band wagon has died down. Yes, he looks really scummy with a lot of those posts, but as I'd said earlier, and others pointed out, I'm attributing that to inexperience, not to being mafia.

OTOH percypercy, is looking suspicious to me, because she is engaging in some of the same behaviors, but without the over-defensiveness that Lightnin' has put on. In post 448 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8492544&postcount=448) she votes for Projammer, not until afterward in post 453 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8492714&postcount=453) does she try to sound reasonable asking for his defense. Then she goes on in post 465 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8493458&postcount=465) to discuss her unvote of DiggitCamera because she didn't have enough information.

So let me get this straight. In these three posts, you claim you voted for Projammer because he's "trying to be slick" and only ask him to explain himself AFTER you vote to lynch him. All the while, you had originally unvoted another because you "needed more information". If that was the case, shouldn't you have asked Projammer to explain himself before you voted for him? This looks to me like you voted for him because you saw a bandwagon knowing he's not mafia and only afterward realized you failed to give a good reason and tried to repair it.

Whatever you're selling... I'm not buying it. Lynch percypercy.

[tirial]

dnooman "If he's scum, yay for us, one down. If he's town, we can look back at who was defending him openly. The only people who know who the townies are are the mafia, it would be wise for them to have "taken the high ground" before we lynch an innocent townie. " Regardless of how any of these turns out, we need to look at the whole voting pattern, accusers, defenders and bandwagonees. Lets be honest here - we don't have much to go on and the more information we can get the better. Its also possible for a mason to bandwagon a townie, mafia to bandwagon a townie or townies to defend townies. Nothing really makes sense unless the whole picture is used.

I'm sticking with my vote for percypercy (post 464) because I still want to hear her analysis, and the vote is the only tool I have to get her contribution. I'm not the only person thinking like this - Post 433, Post 493. Asking nicely doesn't work - Post 465 and her votes aren't always explained - Post )]502 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8495586&postcount=502[/url). I have asked this before and she has outright refused. (Post 465). DiggitCamera has also requested this (Post 433) with no more success.

What is really nudging my scumdar for percypercy are the constant requests for information without providing much, and the instant early vote for Diggit, without providing an FOS and then claiming it doesn't mean anything (Post 233). Voting for Projammer without providing her own arguments, and asking for a defense later (How do you defend "Too slick" by the way?) doesn't help. I have FOS'd Projammer but I've given reasons. And in Post 374 you say you certainly weren't absent, but in Post 362 said you were at your niece's teaparty and in 421 you have an incredibly low post count.

(On the other hand, if a citizen is getting votes because they aren't contributing and have been told repeatedly by multiple posters this is not good for the town and their response is to carry on as they were and not acknowledge the concerns raised - that really pings my scumdar.)

I will be honest and say I'm not sure if percypercy is scum, but no real information has been provided from her posts (except voting patterns, but these all seem to be jumping on bandwagons). If she's scum, then we loose nothing and gain past votes/FOS material. If she's town we loose a townie who posts no new information or analysis.

I am swinging towards inexperienced player in Lightnin's case because he defended himself so frantically. Also, he is contributing more to the thread in general which can only be useful in establishing voting patterns. I'd have expected a mafia player to be less concerned because they can talk to others and get advice, but then I remembered they can only talk at night, so that doesn't really help.

However Lightnin', you still haven't provided your attribution for the Johnny Dangerously quote.

[Omi no Kami]

And, finally, while voting for me, he claims to be "most suspicious" of two other people. Until now, I've found it difficult enough to find one person to cast a non-random vote for. How is it, then, that Omi has the luxury of a pool of three? Is he that good? Or just more well-informed about a larger pool of targets? I'm comfortable voting the latter.

You raise some good points here. This is the first game of mafia I've ever participated in, so I'm going to try and convince you that most of my problems are newbie f**kups.

The mason bit: I honestly misunderstood the win condition, and was hoping that somebody would either agree with my read or correct me. I'm a lot happier now that I know the masons and town can win together.

The NAF bit: the "almost certain" bit was just me being too assertive in my ideas. Despite reading the other two games I didn't grasp how much (valid!) scrutiny and nitpicking was directed at each post, and I'm actively trying to be more cautious in how I phrase things these days.

The large pull of "suspicious" folks: I'm not the slightest bit certain about you, Caerie, or anyone else. When I accused both of you, I was looking at the following conundrum: I couldn't figure out a gosh darn thing from people's posts, but I knew that silence only benefits scum, and even if I turned out to be wrong it was better to make some noise and see how people responded. As such, I was basically accusing both of you in order to stir up some sh*t and see where things landed. As saturday and sunday have gone on I'll admit that the scuminess my gut read into your posts has gone down considerably, but I'm still cautious.

On the same note, I'm a little lost as to what I should think about CaerieD. She defended herself very reasonably, which would lead me to take her off my radar, but as I've mentioned before the sudden, in my view overzealous scrutiny I got from a very small number of players (I'm about to re-read that section to get some names) makes me wonder if my randomly scrutinizing two people in quick succession (CaerieD, Kyrie) didn't step on somebody's toes. I'm gonna take a quick break and figure out exactly who came down on me over the CaerieD piece, but in general when one person accuses another, it seems like most of the uninvolved players sit back for a bit and watch what happens. To get instant feedback from a small number of people makes me think that I may've blundered into an organized group, which could've been a good or a bad thing.

[Omi no Kami]

Ok, I reviewed things and it doesn't look much like a coordinated conspiracy. For the record, if any of the people involved in the CaerieD thing were actively allied with each other my money would be on CaerieD, Rachm Qoch, and Kyrie Eleison working together.

But for now, I just don't see it. It looks less like a conspiracy, and more like a few people trying to figure out whether my mischaracterizations of Fluid were honest mistakes or attempts to get someone lynched.

So for now I'm gonna unvote Kyrie Eleison , and wait to see what tomorrow brings.

[CaerieD]

Out of the four in the Projammer debacle, percypercy is looking the most suspicious to my right now. Blaster Master's analysis with the links to some of her posts in the thread finally nails exactly what it is that's suspicious there. Looks more like percypercy was looking to vote and then figure out why she voted later. Switching votes to join a sudden bandwagon also makes me wonder.

Then again, I'm not really all that certain of Blaster Master's innocence, based on some of his earlier posts. If percypercy turns out to be town, I'm going to be looking really hard at Blaster Master and NAF both.

But, since I'm more suspicious of percypercy than anyone else, I'm going to unvote Omi no Kami and vote percypercy.

[tirial]

This post is three things

a) A bump - and an attempt to get things moving again.

b) a request for an updated vote count.

c) an apology as if I survive today I won't be around much during the day Tuesday since I'm offsite with limited internet access (Blasted real-life job interfering with gameplay <grumble>).

On a side note I make the current vote count:

Counting from 477 I make it:
5 -- percypercy (DiggitCamara, tirial, fluiddruid, dnooman, Blaster Master)
3 -- Omi No Kami (Rachm Qoch, Kyrie Eleison, CaerieD)
3 -- Projammer (nesta, NAF1138, percypercy)
2 -- Lightnin' (Projammer, Millit)
2 -- NAF1138 ( Lightnin')
1 -- CaerieD (Lemur866)
1 -- nesta (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)
1 -- Millit (Idle Thoughts)
1 -- DarkSideCookies (Hal Briston)
1 -- DiggitCamara (Snakescatlady)

Dropped off:
0 -- Idle Thoughts
0 -- Kyrie Eleison

Please could percypercy post something before the end of the day? As stated my vote is based on lack of information, and I will withdraw it if you can persuade me I am wrong, or provide useful analysis.

(On preview CaerieD has just voted, so that is 6 on percypercy and 2 on Omi no Kami.)

[Gadarene]

Updated Vote Count

6 -- percypercy (DiggitCamara, tirial, fluiddruid, dnooman, Blaster Master, CaerieD)
3 -- Projammer (nesta, NAF1138, percypercy)
2 -- Lightnin' (Projammer, Millit the Frail)
2 -- Omi No Kami (Rachm Qoch, Kyrie Eleison)
1 -- NAF1138 (Lightnin')
1 -- ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (Hal Briston)
1 -- Millit the Frail (Idle Thoughts)
1 -- DiggitCamara (SnakesCatLady)
1 -- CaerieD (Lemur866)
1 -- nesta (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)

Approximately an hour before the sun sets.

[Blaster Master]

Then again, I'm not really all that certain of Blaster Master's innocence, based on some of his earlier posts. If percypercy turns out to be town, I'm going to be looking really hard at Blaster Master and NAF both.

Okay... I'm not following your logic here. You're going to FOS me and NAF if she turns up town? You agree with my logic for why I voted for percypercy, and NAF isn't even voting for her. I know you won't have time to respond before the day ends, but this takes you from "likely town" to "???" in my book.

[Blaster Master]

Then again, I'm not really all that certain of Blaster Master's innocence, based on some of his earlier posts. If percypercy turns out to be town, I'm going to be looking really hard at Blaster Master and NAF both.

Okay... I'm not following your logic here. You're going to FOS me and NAF if she turns up town? You agree with my logic for why I voted for percypercy, and NAF isn't even voting for her. I know you won't have time to respond before the day ends, but this takes you from "likely town" to "???" in my book.

[Blaster Master]

AGH! Sorry for the double post. I swear I clicked the post button at 10:31, and it spun forever. I got a "database error", and then, I see two identical posts... lovely. :(

[tirial]

AGH! Sorry for the double post. I swear I clicked the post button at 10:31, and it spun forever. I got a "database error", and then, I see two identical posts... lovely.

I think the site went down for a few minutes, because I lost connection to it completely here.

[Blaster Master]

I think the site went down for a few minutes, because I lost connection to it completely here.
I figured the same. I was just concerned because I was trying to squeeze in one more strategic post before the day ended and I missed.

[NAF1138]

So it looks like percypercy went down.

Oh great and powerful Gad, can we do the examination and find out if she was town or not?

I am going to the bar to await the results.

If she is mafia the first round is on me!

[Gadarene]

Early this morning, in anticipation of the day's debate, some enterprising soul from the next town over set up a refreshments and souvenir stand on the edge of the Village Green. The giant foam Fingers of Suspicion have done particularly brisk business; for only $5.95, they're a bargain at twice the price. But now the sun hangs low in the sky and the vendor, sensing the gathering of tension among the townspeople, has hastily packed up his wares and headed for safer ground. And not a moment too soon: the level-headed and rational discussion that predominated during the day has given way to a nervous muttering throughout the crowd. Despite (or perhaps because of) the generally civil atmosphere, whereby calm analysis followed calm analysis and townspeople voiced their suspicions articulately and with open minds, the town is a long, long way from consensus. The option of lynching nobody was considered and quickly discarded at the beginning of the day. Now night is closing in, and something has to be done. Someone must be targeted, if only for the sake of some concrete piece of information. Picking up on the most recent line of inquiry, a dozen eyes alight upon percypercy, who has tried to make herself unobtrusive. A dozen hands seize her, and the rest of the town quickly disassociates itself with the vigilante action, clumping into small groups at the other end of the lynch mob and discussing in over-loud voices the dramatic events of last night's Amazing Race. Shuttled helplessly in the midst of her six accusers towards the waiting gibbet, percypercy has no chance even to offer a word or two in her own defense before she is strung up and let drop with brutal, implacable speed. She does not suffer.

percypercy, a citizen, has been lynched. The night has now begun.

[Hal Briston]

Damn.

[Gadarene]

The Mafia may now discuss amongst themselves.

The Doctor, the Detective, and the Night Watchman may PM me to exercise their respective powers.

The night will end on Wednesday at 11:11 a.m. my time, or whenever all instructions have been submitted.

[tirial]

Citizen. Great. Wonderful. <sarcasm off>
And she'd rather die than post info, analysis or contribute to the town? WTF?

<shakes head>

I'm getting drunk. Anyone want to join me?

[Gadarene]

Updated player list:

Alive:

1. fluiddruid
2. NAF1138
3. CaerieD
4. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
5. Hal Briston
6. nesta
7. Projammer
9. SnakesCatLady
10. Lightnin'
11. Lemur866
12. tirial
13. Blaster Master
14. Millit the Frail
15. Rachm Qoch
16. DiggitCamara
17. dnooman
18. Kyrie Eleison
19. Omi No Kami
20. Idle Thoughts

Dead:

8. percypercy -- citizen (lynched, Day One)

Players from the reserve list posted previously will be subbed in as needed.

[CaerieD]

Sigh. Well, that was disappointing. Assuming we both survive the night, I'll explain myself better on Day 2, Blaster Master. Unfortunately, I didn't get a chance to respond before night fell.

[SnakesCatLady]

Well, crap. And my FOS was on her, too, even if I didn't vote that way.

*puts a stuffed teddy bear on the grave*


tirial, save me a seat and order a margarita for me, please. I'm on my way.

RL calls; I'll be back later this afternoon.d

[dnooman]

Aaaargh! Not a good start. Sorry percypercy.

Barkeep! Whiskey, and keep 'em coming.

[NAF1138]

Citizen. Great. Wonderful. <sarcasm off>
And she'd rather die than post info, analysis or contribute to the town? WTF?

<shakes head>

I'm getting drunk. Anyone want to join me?

I am right behind you. Barkeep, a shot of Wild Turkey and keep 'em commin'!

[tirial]

Consider your margarita ordered SnakesCatLady! I'd want something stronger myself though.

<pounds bottle on bar> You know, with all the mafia, masons and monsters around this area, we need something keep them all in line. A force so dreadful they'd be scared to show their faces in the neighbourhood.....hmmm. I know! Anyone up for forming a Housing Association?

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Well, crap.

[nesta]

Well, that could have gone better. I was really hoping percypercy was scum, since that would have opened up the game a little.

Bartender, shot of whiskey please. And leave the bottle.

[Lightnin']

Anyone up for forming a Housing Association?

You monster!

[Projammer]

Anyone up for forming a Housing Association?
Now that's scary...


Barkeep!

Irish coffee.

And keep them coming.

[Hal Briston]

I repeat -- Damn.

Well, there's a table in the back with my name on it. I'll be back there pounding brews and trying to work out the chemical formula for Scum-B-Gone spray on a bar napkin.

[Lemur866]

Well, it isn't exactly surprising that we killed off a citizen. I'm just glad we didn't off one of our power players.

Wait, no strategy talk. OK, I can wait till Wednesday. Gonna be a loooong night.

[fluiddruid]

Now that's scary...


Barkeep!

Irish coffee.

And keep them coming.Irish coffee, hold the coffee, please.

[Millit the Frail]

As far as other suspicious players, I'm inclined to believe percypercy when she says she won't post unless she has something to say. It's not necessarily helpful, but I'm not reading anything more into it.

Ah, but vindication isn't really all that comforting when our numbers are shrinking by two already. (Two, including whomever the Mafia decides to off tonight, of course.)

Hope to see you in the morning, pals, and let's start analyzing what we have to work with early on. I'll just have water, please...I need to think clearly and keep my reflexes sharp!!

[NAF1138]

HEY NIGHTVOTERS, hurry up already! Its already been 2 hours! How long does it take to make a decision?

[DiggitCamara]

Look on the bright side, tirial. At least we still have one psychic cat (SnakesCatLady's)...


Sorry, percypercy, but that sudden swing of votes at the end of last day was... unexpected.

A tequila for me, barkeep. Hell... leave the bottle and add one of mezcal.

[Lightnin']

Ah, I should mention- I'm going out of town (for an interview! Yay me!) this Thursday night. Any posts I make will have to be done over my phone for most of the weekend, so if I seem to make only a few short posts with lots of misspellings, you know why.

[Blaster Master]

I was starting to get a bad feeling about percypercy when she didn't get a chance to defend herself; OTOH, I'm not sure we had a a better target with the way the Lightnin' wagon quickly fell away. We'll one for you tomorrow.


FTR, I'm going to be VERY busy this week and next (semester coming to an end) and out of town this weekend. So don't be surprised if my post count drops off. I'll still try to contribute at least once daily (except for this weekend, when I'll have no access).

[Projammer]

Can we take this opportunity to get a rules clarification?

If the sun comes up in the morning and we're all here for breakfast, will we know why no one was killed? Whether the doc or night watchman interfered?

Or will it just remain a mystery until the after-game epilogue?

[Blaster Master]

Erm... that should read "We'll get one for you tomorrow."

[percypercy]

Bye guys. I'll be rooting for you.
-ghost of PercyPercy

[Blaster Master]

Can we take this opportunity to get a rules clarification?

If the sun comes up in the morning and we're all here for breakfast, will we know why no one was killed? Whether the doc or night watchman interfered?

Or will it just remain a mystery until the after-game epilogue?

If no one dies, we get nothing. That is, we won't know if it was the night watchman, the doctor, a conversion, or no murder--though I can't see the last one ever happening.

[Gadarene]

If the sun comes up in the morning and we're all here for breakfast, will we know why no one was killed? Whether the doc or night watchman interfered?

Or will it just remain a mystery until the after-game epilogue?

It'll remain a mystery.

[Projammer]

If no one dies, we get nothing. That is, we won't know if it was the night watchman, the doctor, a conversion, or no murder--though I can't see the last one ever happening.

I didn't think the last one was an option. My understanding is that they have to do something every night.

[Gadarene]

I didn't think the last one was an option. My understanding is that they have to do something every night.

The Mafia may choose not to kill during the night. That's the way it's been in the last couple of games; let me review the rules as I've given them to see if it's expressed with sufficient clarity here.

[Gadarene]

From the Roles:

By night [the Mafia] convene to decide who, if anyone, they will kill.

Yeah, I think that's clear enough.

[dnooman]

If the Mafia try to recruit a doogooder, or get doctor blocked, or night watchman blocked, do they know what happened?

[Gadarene]

If the Mafia try to recruit a doogooder, or get doctor blocked, or night watchman blocked, do they know what happened?

If the Mafia try to recruit someone and fail, there's only one possible explanation: the target is a Do-Gooder.

If the Mafia try to kill someone and are blocked by the Doctor, they learn of their failure when I post in this thread that no one was killed the night before. Ditto the Night Watchman.

[Idle Thoughts]

That sucks percypercy, sorry to see you go. : /

[Projammer]

From the Roles:

By night [the Mafia] convene to decide who, if anyone, they will kill.

Yeah, I think that's clear enough.
Yep. I read right over that.

Twice.

<Gibbs smack to the back of the head>

[tirial]

Please can nighttime get over and done with? I'm sitting here (with my empty bottle) hitting refresh every now and then....

6) Nights will last 48 hours. Nights may end early once all night-time instructions have been submitted.

Two days?! I can't wait two days. I can't take the tension for that long.

Please tell me I'm not the only one who keeps checking back to this thread just in case something's happened.

[Idle Thoughts]

Nope, not the only one.

[Lightnin']

Nope, not the only one.


Definitely not the only one.

Of course, it's either hitting f5 over and over to refresh the page, or actually get some, you know, work done here at the office.

[Hal Briston]

Speed Mafia, that's what we need! Where days last two hours and nights are 30 minutes!

[fluiddruid]

Speed Mafia, that's what we need! Where days last two hours and nights are 30 minutes!
But...but...I like sleeping...

[Hal Briston]

But...but...I like sleeping...In Speed Mafia, that's what's known as a "scum tell".

[Gadarene]

In Speed Mafia, that's what's known as a "scum tell".

:D :D :D

Still waiting on one or more instructions, by the way.

[DiggitCamara]

:D :D :D

Still waiting on one or more instructions, by the way.
A-HA!! I know I'm not the first, but SCUM TELL AND FOS->GADARENE

[Gadarene]

They tried that in the other game, and it turned out I was a vanilla townie. Just sayin'. :p

[DiggitCamara]

<N>
>>You enter the BAR.
>>You see:
>>Several people, looking despondent and drinking heavily.
>Look
>>You see:
>> A bar
>> Several people, looking despondent (and drunk)
>> A handful of people, trying to hide their grins
>> A jukebox
>Go to jukebox
>> You're standing near a jukebox, in a bar
>Play jukebox
>> You haven't inserted a coin!!!
>Insert coin
>> Where??
>Insert coin into jukebox
>>The jukebox starts playing a familiar song
>Identify song
>>The song seems familar...
>>It's unexpectedly appropiate!! (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Night_Chicago_Died)

[SnakesCatLady]

Bartender? Another margarita, please, and do you have any catnip?

[dnooman]

I hope that's not the cold hand of death I feel on my shoulder.

Oh, it's a cat.

Nice kitty, go bite the bad guys if you would be so kind. Also, scratch out their eyes.

[SnakesCatLady]

I hope that's not the cold hand of death I feel on my shoulder.

Oh, it's a cat.

Nice kitty, go bite the bad guys if you would be so kind. Also, scratch out their eyes.

Great idea, dnooman! Now if we see anyone with catbite or scratched eyes - we'll know they're scum!

You're a genius!

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Great idea, dnooman! Now if we see anyone with catbite or scratched eyes - we'll know they're scum!

You're a genius!

What about those of us who live in feline-dominated zoos? (4 cats, 1 lab mix, 1 pompoo)

I know they love me, but that doesn't stop them from biting me once in a while (and yes, even scratching my eyes, though thankfully that only seems to happen during kittenhood, when they're so cute you just can't throw them across the room even as you grab your face in pain).

[NAF1138]

What about those of us who live in feline-dominated zoos? (4 cats, 1 lab mix, 1 pompoo)

I know they love me, but that doesn't stop them from biting me once in a while (and yes, even scratching my eyes, though thankfully that only seems to happen during kittenhood, when they're so cute you just can't throw them across the room even as you grab your face in pain).


Sorry for you then. Right now we don't have much else.

[DiggitCamara]

Sorry for you then. Right now we don't have much else.


For instance: percypercy ;(

Q.E.D.

[Lightnin']

Ah, after a bit of checking, I may not actually be able to keep track of, or post to, this thread this Friday-Sunday. Sprint apparently doesn't cover Canada.

[tirial]

Back online again!

Any news <whimper>?

No? Oh well. Is there any more whisky?

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

I missed my flight to Portland this morning, just to see what was the night might've brought us.

No pressure or anything. I'm just bored out of my mind for the next 2 hours...sitting here listening to bad "musack"...plotting the demise of the author of the vague itinerary email I printed that had me dropped off at the wrong terminal...muttering grumpily at strangers as I huddle over my cup of og-awful coffee...

[SnakesCatLady]

I must have not had enough margaritas last night, because I don't have a hangover.

Bartender, a shot of Patrone, if you would be so kind, with catnip on the side.

[Lemur866]

Jeez, this is awful. I didn't realize from speeding through the other threads just how LONG these nights can be. I mean...a WHOLE DAY? That's like, really really long. I keep coming back to this thread, wondering if there's any news, then realizing that there's almost certainly no news until tomorrow.

[tirial]

Jeez, this is awful. I didn't realize from speeding through the other threads just how LONG these nights can be. I mean...a WHOLE DAY? That's like, really really long. I keep coming back to this thread, wondering if there's any news, then realizing that there's almost certainly no news until tomorrow.

I know - the night lasts 48 hours, and for the last day I think I've been checking in every hour on the hour. Just tell yourself only one more day to go at most...

What's worse is that I don't know whether to hope the night ends so we can get on with the game, or be glad that its still going because it means that everyone is still alive/not a traitor (except that bunch that started out as scum and those blokes in the old mason house round the corner).

(Much more of this and I'll be eyeing up the whisky IRL).

Only one more day to go...

[fluiddruid]

I know. I'm churning. It's hard not to discuss strategy after a lynch!

[Gadarene]

This is a reminder to submit all night instructions. The night will end in approximately twenty-one hours.

[NAF1138]

DAMMIT GADARENE!

I saw your name on the new poster list and got all excited that things had started up early.

Grrrr.


Whose round is it? I need another drink!

[tirial]

Hair of the dog Naf1138?

<Nurses sherry - ignores mound of empty whisky bottles to one side>

[SnakesCatLady]

Sherry? *shudders*

More Patrone, bartender, please. And give NAF1138 whatever he's drinking. And some more catnip, please, this cat is driving me to drink!

21 hours? I can probably sober up by then...

[Gadarene]

If not sooner.

[Gadarene]

While we're waiting for all the night instructions to be submitted, I do have one further rules clarification.

I've been asked by an interested party what happens if the Detective chooses to investigate the person who the Mafia has chosen to recruit. Here's my answer:

The results of the Detective's investigation will not be revealed to him or her until all night instructions have been submitted and the day is about to dawn. If the Detective investigates someone who the Mafia have unsuccessfully attempted to recruit, the Detective will be told the target's role but not that the Mafia has attempted the recruitment. If the Detective investigates someone who the Mafia successfully recruited on a previous night, the Detective will be given both the target's previous role and the fact that they are now Mafia. If the Detective investigates someone who the Mafia has successfully recruited on that very same night, the Detective has a 50 percent chance of witnessing the recruitment (in which case he or she will be informed of it) and a 50 percent chance of finishing his or her investigation before the recruitment took place (in which case he or she will only know the target's previous role). Does that make sense to everyone?

[NAF1138]

While we're waiting for all the night instructions to be submitted, I do have one further rules clarification.

I've been asked by an interested party what happens if the Detective chooses to investigate the person who the Mafia has chosen to recruit. Here's my answer:

The results of the Detective's investigation will not be revealed to him or her until all night instructions have been submitted and the day is about to dawn. If the Detective investigates someone who the Mafia have unsuccessfully attempted to recruit, the Detective will be told the target's role but not that the Mafia has attempted the recruitment. If the Detective investigates someone who the Mafia successfully recruited on a previous night, the Detective will be given both the target's previous role and the fact that they are now Mafia. If the Detective investigates someone who the Mafia has successfully recruited on that very same night, the Detective has a 50 percent chance of witnessing the recruitment (in which case he or she will be informed of it) and a 50 percent chance of finishing his or her investigation before the recruitment took place (in which case he or she will only know the target's previous role). Does that make sense to everyone?


Makes sense...I do have one question.

Didn't you say you wanted this game to be less complicated than mafia 2? :p

[Gadarene]

:D

[Hal Briston]

Did they all send in their replies yet?

<Refresh>

Did they all send in their replies yet?

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Did they all send in their replies yet?

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Did they all send in their replies yet?

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Did they all send in their replies yet?

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Did they all send in their replies yet?

<Refresh>

Gaaaa!! Make me stop!!!

[Idle Thoughts]

Here ya go Hal, here's a sheep you can busy yourself with for the time being.

d&r

[fluiddruid]

What a twisted game. I'm sure I'll get offed soon, now that I'm addicted.

[Gadarene]

Fearful for their lives and suspicious of one another after a tragic, fruitless lynching, the townspeople seemed to come to an unspoken decision to stay together in the tavern as the night wore on, talking quietly and drinking themselves sodden. Some made it a solemn-faced slumber party, silently donning bunny-footed pajamas and hunkering down with their back to the wall for sporadic bursts of paranoid sleep. Some played macabre drinking games. Some simply sat. Everyone was present except the Night Watchman, who had wandered off in some unnoticed direction for a restive stroll around town.

The clock struck four. Suddenly a shot glass rang out! The townspeople looked up from their desultory round of I Never to locate the source of the noise. The glass had fallen heavily to the floor, shattering and spilling Wild Turkey on a nearby cat. The cat was unharmed. NAF1138, however, was not. Florid and senseless, he toppled to the ground from his position at the stool near the end of the bar, his body landing dully atop the broken glass. The acrid tang of Poison-brand poison filled the air.

A relative newcomer to the town, NAF was a harmless eccentric who was often seen muttering to himself about monkeys, ferns, queues, cows, and other random oddments, and periodically bewailing, "The pages! The pages!." Some claimed his silver fillings picked up radio broadcasts. Some claimed that NAF himself was the broadcaster. The argument had now become academic.

NAF1138, a citizen, is dead.

Day Two has dawned. Night will fall on Saturday at 5:57 p.m. my time, if not sooner. Updated player list to follow.

[Gadarene]

Updated player list:

Alive:

1. fluiddruid
3. CaerieD
4. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
5. Hal Briston
6. nesta
7. Projammer
9. SnakesCatLady
10. Lightnin'
11. Lemur866
12. tirial
13. Blaster Master
14. Millit the Frail
15. Rachm Qoch
16. DiggitCamara
17. dnooman
18. Kyrie Eleison
19. Omi No Kami
20. Idle Thoughts

Dead:

8. percypercy -- citizen (lynched, Day One)
2. NAF1138 -- citizen (murdered, Night One)

Players from the reserve list posted previously will be subbed in as needed.

[Gadarene]

Note that ten votes are now needed to lynch (or to vote not to lynch) before the end of the day.

[NAF1138]

KNEW I was going to die. Ah well. Bad move mafia!

Town, don't let my death be in vain!

Avenge me! AVENGE ME!!!!!!!! ::cough::

Well, see y'all in the forbidden thread in the sky.

(and since I can edit now, y'all should have recruited me. After a day 1 like that I was possible the most trusted townie there was. )

avenge me!

[Hal Briston]

Nooooo! Not NAF! He was my #1 suspect! (Although, in light of that fact, I guess it's a good thing)

Well, in light of the fact that he put out reams and reams of (now known to be helpful) analysis, the town should benefit from this.

That said, I'll definitely be putting the extra-large arrangement on your grave, NAF. I'm sorry to see you go.

(on preview: You'll be avenged!)

[DiggitCamara]

Well... sorry, NAF, I guess it's true that Mafia goes after the experienced player's throat first...

And, while I'm at it: SnakesCatLady, why do you say I'm persistently on your case? As far as I'm aware, this is only my second post addressing you (albeit putting you on my FOS list)

[Hal Briston]

Ok, quick 'n dirty version of NAF's voting record:

185 - Minor suspicion of DiggitCamara
197- FOS Lightnin'
235 - Votes fluiddruid
240 - FOS Lemur866
287 - Unvotes fluiddruid
299 - FOS Omi no Kami
312 - Wonders where percypercy & Lightnin' have gone
322 - Votes Lightnin'
446 - Unvotes Lightnin'
446 - FOS Lightnin'
446 - Votes Projammer
446 - FOS Omi No Kami

Of course, of even more use would be a record of those who spoke out against NAF (which, unfortunately, is a club of which I'm a charter member). Anyone want to dig through and see what kind of scummy things were said about our departed friend?

[nesta]

Sorry to see you go NAF1138. I was already torn between you being scum that was being very clever, because you seemed very town, or town that would shortly be dead. I guess I got my answer. I agree, the scum missed an opportunity to recruit you after you'd been alive long enough to get a trusted track record going. I think they felt way too threatened by your mad town skills.

That's two out of the three that were on the Projammer bandwagon confirmed town, and dead. That doesn't seem to bode well for my future.

We need to take a serious look at who derailed that bandwagon, and why, and who started and kept the percypercy bandwagon going.

[Lemur866]

Well, this both blows and sucks.

[dnooman]

Interesting. NAF never left my "probably town" list, maybe he was killed because he was trusted. Maybe he was killed because he was on to someone, or maybe his analytical skills scared the Mafia. Maybe he was killed randomly to make us chase our own tails looking for an answer.

One thing we do know, is that his posts were not misleading. His ideas may have been off base, they may have been right on the mark. Which was it?

I have the feeling that our Mafia may be trying to play in a manner different from previous bad guy groups from the previous games. When we hear hoof steps from now on, we need to be looking for zebras as well as horses.

Living past night one didn't end up feeling as good as I thought it would. :( R.I.P. NAF

[Lightnin']

Well, crap. There goes THAT theory.

So was Naf (MHRIP) a vanilla townie? For example, if he was the Doctor or Detective, would we be able to read that on his tombstone?

[CaerieD]

Dang. I'd been a bit suspicious of NAF, figuring we were either dealing with a very clever Mafioso or a Vanilla Citizen playing his heart out. I guess we know the answer to that one now. I'm wondering if the scum took him out because he was getting close to something, though? I'm definitely going to be giving NAF's analysis a closer look now that we know it wasn't meant to be misleading.

Lightnin' - death gives full disclosure, so I assume NAF was just vanilla.

[dnooman]

Sorry to see you go NAF1138.
That's two out of the three that were on the Projammer bandwagon confirmed town, and dead. That doesn't seem to bode well for my future.

No mafia ever would be dumb enough to kill off all the people that voted for one of them like that. It would only point the finger right at the Mafioso.

We need to take a serious look at who derailed that bandwagon, and why, and who started and kept the percypercy bandwagon going.
Keep in mind that town had no idea who was or wasn't town (with the exception of the Masons). It is entirely possible for a townie to have been responsible for the death of percypercy. I thought the Projammer bandwagon was going a bit fast, and I also voted for percypercy who turned out to be town. Does that make me Mafia? Of course not.

Projammer may be Mafia, he may not, but I don't think your reasoning makes any sense at all. I thought you made some very good arguments on the first day, and I think this one seems pretty flimsy. To me that is a reversal of behavior. FOS nesta.

[dnooman]

Also, if you were just noticing similarities between the two dead, why did you leave out that fluiddruid voted for both of them?

[Lemur866]

I agree with dnooman. The last thing the scum are going to do is clumsily panic and kill the guy who fingered them the first round. They're going to leave the guys who fingered them alive, to throw us off. NAF didn't have any more information than we do, especially since we know now that he wasn't a mason. He was a gutsy player whose aggressive play didn't fit a mafia profile, which means he was on a lot of "trust" lists. So they whacked him, not because he fingered the right people, impossible at this early stage, but just because he was a leader who would eventually start fingering the right people.

Hmm. How about a list of people who didn't get fingered by anyone? If a player is so far under the radar that they were never FOSed or voted against, isn't THAT a bit suspicious?

[Hal Briston]

We need to take a serious look at who derailed [the Projammer] bandwagon, and why, and who started and kept the percypercy bandwagon going.I don't have an immediate answer to the second part, but as to the first part my notes say dnooman in post #461: "The Projammerwagon needs to stop and be inspected IMO".

[Idle Thoughts]

Okay, well, R.I.P NAF, first of all.

Let's take a look at what we have here. Mind you this is just me speaking my thoughts aloud, if you will, in a post.

I'm looking at the last, final vote listing which was:

6 -- percypercy (DiggitCamara, tirial, fluiddruid, dnooman, Blaster Master, CaerieD)
3 -- Projammer (nesta, NAF1138, percypercy)
2 -- Lightnin' (Projammer, Millit the Frail)
2 -- Omi No Kami (Rachm Qoch, Kyrie Eleison)
1 -- NAF1138 (Lightnin')
1 -- ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (Hal Briston)
1 -- Millit the Frail (Idle Thoughts)
1 -- DiggitCamara (SnakesCatLady)
1 -- CaerieD (Lemur866)
1 -- nesta (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)


Six people voted for townie percypercy in the end. Six of them. Now they may all be townies and they may even all be scum, but I think the former is too coincedental and the latter would be wayyy too foolish (I doubt the scum would be that dumb).

So it stands to reason that at least ONE (or possibly even two or three) of the people who voted for her is a mafia member.

Going back, however, to my observation that it would be foolish for a lot of scum to, figuratively, put all their eggs in one basket by voting for the same person, this would probably mean that a few scum probably, to even things out, voted for other people (as to not look so suspicious).

So based on all of that stuff that seems like common sense to me, here is specific thoughts now.

All the people who voted for percypercy I'm leery of a little, but more so the people I was already suspicious of. This includes fluiddruid, and, nearing the end of the last day, CaerieD.

Omi No Kami originally suspected CaerieD for, what I and others thought, all the wrong reasons but even a stopped clock is right twice every 24 hours. It also seems strange that after he voiced his concerns (and remember, I have NO suspicion of ONK at all), a lot rushed to vote for him, creating the start of a pile-on.

So I started reading her posts more and opening myself up to thought and he was right, it seemed. She really doesn't have much in her posts that go one way or another and she seemed to, at first, try to fly below the radar.

And finally, tirial has tripped my meter too with the various things s/he has posted the last day.

I have a lot more to say and observations I have seen but I'm going to continue going back and reading over past posts first. Bide my time a little before saying anything else.

[DiggitCamara]

Actually, I'd like to point out that percypercy didn't get lynched because a Projammer "bandwagon" got derailed but because the Lightnin' factor ceased to be.

Look at three (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8483295&postcount=422) votecounts (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8479282&postcount=477) prior (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8479282&postcount=508) (and close) to nightfall.

In other words, several expressed their dissatisfaction at being the "deciding votes" for Lightnin's impending demisal, and some even said they were satisfied (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8483295&postcount=488) with their decision. (just before changing it, of course)

[Lightnin']

Hmm. How about a list of people who didn't get fingered by anyone? If a player is so far under the radar that they were never FOSed or voted against, isn't THAT a bit suspicious?

Is there anyone who fits that description? I'm already spending more time than I should on this, while I'm at work, but I'd like to see that list as well.

I'm half tempted to FOS Gadarene. I swear, that guy knows everything.

[DiggitCamara]

Damn.

Can anyone check the links in my last post? They are supposed to go to the 422, 477 and 508th posts and then the 488th.

[DiggitCamara]

Hmm. How about a list of people who didn't get fingered by anyone? If a player is so far under the radar that they were never FOSed or voted against, isn't THAT a bit suspicious?
Not at all. Anyone who gets fingered is, in my book, all right: as long as their participations are truthful and give information to the town (hey, we all have dissenting ideas and it's our job to get a consensus).

However, anyone who seems to spread suspicion lightly and/or give false information gets an automatic FOS in my book.

[nesta]

No mafia ever would be dumb enough to kill off all the people that voted for one of them like that. It would only point the finger right at the Mafioso.
Unless that's what they knew we would think. ;)

I'm still very suspicious of Projammer, and haven't had time to fully think over what it means that the Mafia were willing to off NAF1388 even though he shared my suspicions of him. It's a bit of a wine-in-front-of-me situation, and I don't like those. If the Mafia did have a hand in the percypercy bandwagon, then I think it was because she was a target of opportunity.

Keep in mind that town had no idea who was or wasn't town (with the exception of the Masons). It is entirely possible for a townie to have been responsible for the death of percypercy. I thought the Projammer bandwagon was going a bit fast, and I also voted for percypercy who turned out to be town. Does that make me Mafia? Of course not.
No, it doesn't make you Mafia. I voiced suspicion of percypercy after the Projammer mini-wagon started up (in which I was the first vote), so I understand exactly why pro-town players might also have been suspicious of her. I think scum had a hand in the bandwagon, though.

Projammer may be Mafia, he may not, but I don't think your reasoning makes any sense at all. I thought you made some very good arguments on the first day, and I think this one seems pretty flimsy. To me that is a reversal of behavior. FOS nesta.
I can understand why you think an argument that Projammer is scum just because two people on his bandwagon are dead is flimsy. That's not the only reason I suspect him, though. I'm assuming that the very good arguments you say I made the first day include my suspicion of Projammer. I'm not sure how my continuing that suspicion now that I know the other two who shared it were town is a reversal. If I'm right about Projammer being scum, then it would make sense that other scum might have tried to derail his bandwagon.

As for taking a serious look at the percypercy bandwagon, that's just good common sense. We had a townie lynched yesterday, so let's look at all those who had a hand it in, including me, and including you.

[Lemur866]

We had a townie lynched yesterday, so let's look at all those who had a hand it in, including me, and including you.
You got something you want to get off your chest, nesta?

[nesta]

Actually, I'd like to point out that percypercy didn't get lynched because a Projammer "bandwagon" got derailed but because the Lightnin' factor ceased to be.

Good point. The Lightnin' bandwagon and then un-bandwagon was central to what happened at the end of yesterday. Maybe even more so than the Projammer bandwagon. I think we should be looking closely at this as well.

[nesta]

You got something you want to get off your chest, nesta?

I can't tell if you're joking or not, so I'll answer as if you were serious:

Just that I had voiced suspicions about percypercy myself, as I admitted in the post you quoted.

[dnooman]

Unless that's what they knew we would think. ;)

I'm still very suspicious of Projammer, and haven't had time to fully think over what it means that the Mafia were willing to off NAF1388 even though he shared my suspicions of him. It's a bit of a wine-in-front-of-me situation, and I don't like those. If the Mafia did have a hand in the percypercy bandwagon, then I think it was because she was a target of opportunity.


No, it doesn't make you Mafia. I voiced suspicion of percypercy after the Projammer mini-wagon started up (in which I was the first vote), so I understand exactly why pro-town players might also have been suspicious of her. I think scum had a hand in the bandwagon, though.


I can understand why you think an argument that Projammer is scum just because two people on his bandwagon are dead is flimsy. That's not the only reason I suspect him, though. I'm assuming that the very good arguments you say I made the first day include my suspicion of Projammer. I'm not sure how my continuing that suspicion now that I know the other two who shared it were town is a reversal. If I'm right about Projammer being scum, then it would make sense that other scum might have tried to derail his bandwagon.

As for taking a serious look at the percypercy bandwagon, that's just good common sense. We had a townie lynched yesterday, so let's look at all those who had a hand it in, including me, and including you.
I think I can agree with this.

With 6 people being involved in percypercy's death, there is a decent chance that scum was involved. At the moment, I'm less suspicious of the latter voters because there didn't seem to be a need for scum to pile on too many votes in order to get a lynch. As unfortunate as it was that percypercy turned out to be town, I can't really regret my vote because a quiet townie is bad for the town. I think we can all agree to that.

If scum were influencing her demise, they picked a good target because her posting methods were not pro town. If there were no scum involved, the townies still made the "right" move by getting rid of either a) a lurking scum, or b) a townie that really isn't advancing our knowledge base.

So, are we being led around by the nose by the Mafia, or are we just killing ourselves off blindly without their influence?

I think that we can potentially glean the most information from day one, the Mafia knew who each other were, but hadn't been able to discuss a strategy in private yet. In addition to rereading the thread, I'm still going to keep my eye on the people accused on day one.

Only four people received 0 votes on day one, Hal Briston, tirial, Blaster Master, and Rachm Qoch. That means that there is a very good chance that a scum or even more than one scum has been voted for and possibly dodged a bullet. If any of those people are masons, then the other masons would know that a mafia was voted for at least once. Who? That's the big question.

I really don't want to see us get led around by the scum and have our votes and suspicions scattershot. IMO that will lead us down the road to destruction, constantly juggling candidates and killing each other off. We have to assume that the scum have picked up a trick or two from the previous games so we need to bring our A game today.

[DiggitCamara]

I think I can agree with this.

With 6 people being involved in percypercy's death, there is a decent chance that scum was involved. At the moment, I'm less suspicious of the latter voters because there didn't seem to be a need for scum to pile on too many votes in order to get a lynch. As unfortunate as it was that percypercy turned out to be town, I can't really regret my vote because a quiet townie is bad for the town. I think we can all agree to that.

I disagree.

I'm really suspicious of the sudden turnaround that swung the lynching toward percypercy (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8495204&postcount=495)
from
Lightnin' (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8494500&postcount=488).

In my last post on sunday I refrained from unvoting percypercy (whom I still suspected, albeit ontly in the 3rd position) because my number one spot (Lightnin' ) seemed to head for the gallows

[Projammer]

Well crap. You'll be missed. Badly.

And they've accomplished two things.

First, they've deprived us of a skilled player.
Second, they've hung a big red flag over me.

On the other hand, that flag is too big and too red. They won't bring that much attention to one of their own. Time to go review posts some more.

[CaerieD]

DiggitCamara - I'm not sure if I'm reading your last post correctly. Are you saying you're suspicious of dnooman because of percypercy's lynching?

[DiggitCamara]

DiggitCamara - I'm not sure if I'm reading your last post correctly. Are you saying you're suspicious of dnooman because of percypercy's lynching?
Not exactly.

He wasn't the only one who voted and/or swung his vote towards percypercy.
However, since daybreak he's been trying to get us to examine Projammer's "lynching bandwagon", when Lightnin' was really the one close get hanged (there were at least 2 different posts by people who "felt uncomfortable being the deciding vote".

[Idle Thoughts]

<snipping a bit>

At the moment, I'm less suspicious of the latter voters because there didn't seem to be a need for scum to pile on too many votes in order to get a lynch.

Really?
This is interesting. I'm more suspicious of the latter people instead as it seemed that most were piling on percypercy already and it'd be smart to get in at least one scum vote while everyone else is doing the same. So I think that one of the latter ones would be MORE apt to be scum if any would. I also would think everyone else would think that more probable too, which surprises me that you'd think otherwise. This brings me back around again to CaerieD who jumped on not one but TWO seeming bandwagons in the making. percypercy's and earlier (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8490954&postcount=423) she not only jumped on the mini Omi No Kami bandwagon but also started it.

At that time I had just thought it was a common mistake between two townies but with her changing her vote to be the sixth (and last) nail in percypercy's coffin, it looks weird.


That being said, she wasn't the only one who was on two bandwagons at the time. One other person was, that person being you. You were the third person to vote for Lightnin' after I did (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8489709&postcount=378) but when many others starting piling on him you (just like I did), changed your vote. However, you (very unlike myself) just hopped on another pile-on with percypercy (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8495204&postcount=495).

And THIS just a mere seven posts after you made this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8494500&postcount=488) where you all of say you're happy with your vote (even if Lightnin' is town (!!) ) and also "aim" your FOS at Projammer.

So, uh, whatever happened to Projammer then? Did, when you made post #495, he just completely slip your mind even though you had a FOS on him? Seems that way since you instead voted for percy.

And yeah, you did mention previous suspicions of percy (your post # 461). I even referred to this when I, myself, said percy was starting to look odd. But in between all of that saying things like you're happy with your vote even in the case Lightnin' is town (but oh so "sadly") and seemingly to forget all about Projammer when you seemed so suspicious of him in the first place makes it all seem really shady.


So, all in all, I don't think that the first or last half of voting has anything to do with who might be scum or not. I think there's the possibility either half could have scummy votes, but in my opinion it'd be more apt to be the last and final votes then any.



As unfortunate as it was that percypercy turned out to be town, I can't really regret my vote because a quiet townie is bad for the town. I think we can all agree to that.

Lightnin' was anything but quiet and you also said you were "happy" with your vote for him too.

[Lemur866]

I disagree that the later votes against percypercy are likely to be scum votes. She was lynched with 6 votes, and a record that didn't stand out in any particular way. So the main scum goal in the first round was simply to avoid a scum lynch, and avoid giving off scum vibes. Unless Lightning or Projammer is scum and the percypercy bandwagon was a way to deflect attention, the scum won't care that much. And there's a pretty simple way for us to tell if either is scum...it will only take a minute to string them up and examine their juicy centers.

I don't understand what a late vote against percypercy accomplishes for a late scum voter. It's a vote against a townsman that can only look bad. It seems more likely for a late scum vote to be a scum voting against another scum, knowing that percy was destined to swing there would be no danger of the voted against scum getting the noose, and it establishes an alibi later if we discover a scum.

So. Late votes against low vote count players are more suspicious than late votes against Percy.

[Rachm Qoch]

I think I can agree with this.

With 6 people being involved in percypercy's death, there is a decent chance that scum was involved. At the moment, I'm less suspicious of the latter voters because there didn't seem to be a need for scum to pile on too many votes in order to get a lynch. As unfortunate as it was that percypercy turned out to be town, I can't really regret my vote because a quiet townie is bad for the town. I think we can all agree to that.
I disagree as well.

A townie death is bad for the town, PERIOD. It could be (especially if we flat out tell them!) that the mafia expects us to lynch our less vocal friends early on -- no doubt if they expect us to focus on the likes of percypercy during daytime, they'll simply knock off the social butterflies at night and let us do half of their job for them. That might very well be what cost NAF his life.

[Projammer]

So, are we being led around by the nose by the Mafia, or are we just killing ourselves off blindly without their influence?

I really don't want to see us get led around by the scum and have our votes and suspicions scattershot. IMO that will lead us down the road to destruction, constantly juggling candidates and killing each other off. We have to assume that the scum have picked up a trick or two from the previous games so we need to bring our A game today.

PercyPercy I suspect was mostly a target of opportunity. Her lack of input pretty much just set her up and they didn't have to do anything to let her fall. Just pitch a vote or two in the ring. Odds were that we would catch a townie the first day without any firm evidence to take down anyone else.

Lightnin is still high on my list. But like everyone else, I'll be reviewing posts to see who else comes up on radar.

[SnakesCatLady]

Not at all. Anyone who gets fingered is, in my book, all right: as long as their participations are truthful and give information to the town (hey, we all have dissenting ideas and it's our job to get a consensus).

However, anyone who seems to spread suspicion lightly and/or give false information gets an automatic FOS in my book.

I am suspicious of you because you seem so determined to be suspicious of me. And as you said above: "anyone who seems to spread suspicion lightly..."

I am also very suspicious of Projammer. Both of our dearly departed townies had voted for him, and I think much more highly of NAF1138's abilities in this game than I do of my own. I think that is why he was killed off so fast.

[dnooman]

Would DiggitCamara and Rachm Qoch please state explicitly what they don't agree with me about? Explicitly.

[CaerieD]

This brings me back around again to CaerieD who jumped on not one but TWO seeming bandwagons in the making. percypercy's and earlier (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8490954&postcount=423) she not only jumped on the mini Omi No Kami bandwagon but also started it.

While I did give the last vote against percypercy and I regret that, I can't see how I could have both jumped on a bandwagon and started it. I either started it or I jumped onto the bandwagon. Those are mutually exclusive claims. This is the same odd distortion of posts that you gave before that had me looking at you suspiciously.

[dnooman]

I'm more suspicious of the latter people instead as it seemed that most were piling on percypercy already and it'd be smart to get in at least one scum vote while everyone else is doing the same. So I think that one of the latter ones would be MORE apt to be scum if any would.

Get in at least one scum vote? Scum that see a sinking ship are not likely to add their name to the list of people who helped sink it. All of the scum knew that percypercy was town, why would they want to be associated with killing a known townie when it was clear he was going to die anyways?

Lightnin' was anything but quiet and you also said you were "happy" with your vote for him too.
Yes I did, and I would have stayed happy with it had I not thought that he might be a mason and that his fellow masons were the ones defending him. Was I over thinking that potential scenario, probably. In retrospect, I think that if he were a mason headed for the gallows the other Masons would know enough to keep quiet until he was forced to claim. It never got that far, so we'll see how that situation plays out.

Lightnin's defenders were either a) townies that just thought he was making rookie blunders, b) masons foolishly outing themselves as a group unnecessarily, c) Mafia not wanting us to get one of their own killed before they had a chance to strategize, or d) a combination of the aforementioned people. Scenarios c and d make the most sense to me. Did I leave out a possible scenario? Besides one of them being a doc, detective, NW, etc.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

NAF :(

I just got to my hotel room after a long day of missed flights and death-by-powerpoint. But I'm catching up on the thread and shall make a real post before running off to dinner.

[Rachm Qoch]

Would DiggitCamara and Rachm Qoch please state explicitly what they don't agree with me about? Explicitly.
Is post #615 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8503421&postcount=615) really that unclear? :confused:

<snip>
As unfortunate as it was that percypercy turned out to be town, I can't really regret my vote because a quiet townie is bad for the town.
<snip>

1. Uhh, telegraphing strategy is bad, m'kay?

2. Uhh, Killing townies is bad, m'kay?

[Lightnin']

I'm inclined to think that a solid scumtell would be to never nominate, but to hop on the bandwagon against whomever isn't scum.

Hmm... tortured sentence, that.

Basically, I don't think the the initial voters matter much- I think the ones we should keep an eye on are the ones who said, "me too" and threw their vote only onto people who've already been voted. This way, the scum is able to look lily-white, but since they're able to vote as a block (if they're careful), they can protect each other by voting against someone they KNOW isn't scum.

Hmm... still hard to verbalize.

I'm going to have to go over the entire thread... ouch... and see if anyone fits that criteria.

[fluiddruid]

1. Uhh, telegraphing strategy is bad, m'kay?

2. Uhh, Killing townies is bad, m'kay?Why? I stated at the time of my vote, and I'll say again now, when it comes to round one and the odds are against us, I'd rather take down a quiet/less contributory townie if necessary. Yes, it sucks, but we would have been pretty lucky to clue in perfectly.

Besides... why should we fear to share strategy? I don't see a reason for townies to be secretive with one another (other than role claims / investigations, purely for the purposes of self-protection). If you die, you take it to the grave.

[dnooman]

That being said, she wasn't the only one who was on two bandwagons at the time. One other person was, that person being you. You were the third person to vote for Lightnin' after I did (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8489709&postcount=378)So, I did the same thing you did, does that make me look shady? Again, doing the same thing as you.However, you (very unlike myself) just hopped on another pile-on with percypercy (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8495204&postcount=495). If you're thinking I'm scum, would this make any sense for me to do? No. If I were scum I would have let the innocent townie wagon keep on rollin' without my name on it. Scum would have known to keep away towards the end of that if they were smart. So are you accusing me of making a move that would have been dumb for scum to do, while you "very unlike myself" deftly avoided voting for a townie. Did you know she was town?

And THIS just a mere seven posts after you made this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8494500&postcount=488) where you all of say you're happy with your vote (even if Lightnin' is town (!!) ) and also "aim" your FOS at Projammer.

So, uh, whatever happened to Projammer then? Did, when you made post #495, he just completely slip your mind even though you had a FOS on him? Seems that way since you instead voted for percy.
So now I'm suspicious for who I don't vote for? A person who's role has yet to be revealed? The fact that percy was being quiet was a better reason than any other at the time to vote for anyone. Silent townies do not help the town.[quote]

And yeah, you did mention previous suspicions of percy (your post # 461). I even referred to this when I, myself, said percy was starting to look odd. Then why didn't you vote for her? Did you know she was town, and therefore knew to not vote for her needlessly?But in between all of that saying things like you're happy with your vote even in the case Lightnin' is town (but oh so "sadly") and seemingly to forget all about Projammer when you seemed so suspicious of him in the first place makes it all seem really shady.


I am being very open with my thoughts. Yes it seems callous to suggest that Lightnin's death would have been a benefit to us in any way, but we would have learned a lot more had he been the one to get lynched than we did from percy. Remember the people defending Lightnin'? There was no one that defended percy because there was no good argument to make in her defense.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

A townie death is bad for the town, PERIOD. It could be (especially if we flat out tell them!) that the mafia expects us to lynch our less vocal friends early on -- no doubt if they expect us to focus on the likes of percypercy during daytime, they'll simply knock off the social butterflies at night and let us do half of their job for them. That might very well be what cost NAF his life.

A townie death is bad, but also illuminating. I also think you're over-simplifying the anti-lurker strategy.

I'm tossing my hat in the ring with the folks who feel that the parties implicated in the early percypercy bandwagon are the most suspicious. Of that group, I'm looking the hardest at tirial, who's posts strike me as a bit too diplomatic and calculated. Yes, it is difficult to sub into a game, but I get an odd feeling like he holds a knife behind his back while holding the door open for you.

[dnooman]

Is post #615 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8503421&postcount=615) really that unclear? :confused:



1. Uhh, telegraphing strategy is bad, m'kay?

2. Uhh, Killing townies is bad, m'kay?
You managed to do it again.

You said "I disagree."

Please fill in the blank in the following sentence: "I disagree that (this is where you quote my exact statement that you disagree with)" Do you disagree that I didn't regret my vote? Do you disagree that silent townies are bad for the town?

Show me where I said killing townies is good. I can show you where I said that we might learn beneficial things from dead townies, but I didn't say that I wanted to kill a townie.

Please also state what this strategy is that I'm telegraphing. Does it have to do with quiet townies? Please tell us your exact thoughts on this matter.

[Kyrie Eleison]

Silent townies do not help the town.You've said this twice now, although others have voiced their disagreement. At worst, silent townies help the town maintain a numerical advantage over its opponents.

[Idle Thoughts]

While I did give the last vote against percypercy and I regret that, I can't see how I could have both jumped on a bandwagon and started it. I either started it or I jumped onto the bandwagon. Those are mutually exclusive claims. This is the same odd distortion of posts that you gave before that had me looking at you suspiciously.

You started it and then jumped on your own one, seemingly, as you were the first to point suspicion at Omi No Kami and right after you did both Rachm Qoch and Kyrie Eleison put in votes against him. You then decided to hop on too, that is, until percypercy's number appeared to be up, in which you changed.

So, to me, THAT looks suspicious.

dnoorman:

Get in at least one scum vote? Scum that see a sinking ship are not likely to add their name to the list of people who helped sink it. All of the scum knew that percypercy was town, why would they want to be associated with killing a known townie when it was clear he was going to die anyways?

What makes you think they wouldn't? I just pointed out, the chances
all six of the votes being town seems pretty far-fetched. And while I'm not saying they could have started the bandwagon (which they could have, by all means), it just seems more likely to my common sense factor that they'd try to avoid starting it and, instead, try to shoot for placing a vote in the middle or nearing the end when a pile-on is in full swing.

Yes I did, and I would have stayed happy with it had I not thought that he might be a mason and that his fellow masons were the ones defending him. Was I over thinking that potential scenario, probably. In retrospect, I think that if he were a mason headed for the gallows the other Masons would know enough to keep quiet until he was forced to claim. It never got that far, so we'll see how that situation plays out.

Lightnin's defenders were either a) townies that just thought he was making rookie blunders, b) masons foolishly outing themselves as a group unnecessarily, c) Mafia not wanting us to get one of their own killed before they had a chance to strategize, or d) a combination of the aforementioned people. Scenarios c and d make the most sense to me. Did I leave out a possible scenario? Besides one of them being a doc, detective, NW, etc.

You seem to contradict yourself a couple times in this thing. You say, at first, that you thought he was a mason and his fellow masons were the ones defending him. I say that'd be a pretty far and specific stretch. A bit of a hasty one too. Because, after all, you go on to say that it could have been A, B, C, or D also (in the same quote).

So it seems to me you were pretty hasty in assuming what you did that lead to your unvoting of Lightnin'. You automatically assumed that it JUST was the fact that other masons were defending him and nothing else, at all, sprung to mind as a possiblity? And after one or two other games you've already played in? I'd think you'd be experienced by now in opening your mind to all aveunes of possiblity.

So my suspicion stands. However not enough to vote for you just yet. Or anyone for that matter.

[CaerieD]

You started it and then jumped on your own one, seemingly, as you were the first to point suspicion at Omi No Kami and right after you did both Rachm Qoch and Kyrie Eleison put in votes against him. You then decided to hop on too, that is, until percypercy's number appeared to be up, in which you changed.

So, to me, THAT looks suspicious.

I expressed suspicion against someone and, when others voiced similar suspicion, I voted against that person. Is this actually an unusual tactic? Perhaps one of those two was Mafia, trying to start a bandwagon, but I doubt it. Omni no Kami was acting suspiciously. It really feels like you're reaching here.

[Idle Thoughts]

So, I did the same thing you did, does that make me look shady?

Again, doing the same thing as you.

No, it doesn't. I pointed out the fact I did these things as well. What differs from us is you seemed to not mind if you accidently killed off a townie (at first) and then changed your vote to another person (which turned out to be another bandwagon) when in your post seven posts before you do this, you FOS someone else. Just out of nowhere you change your vote it seems (well, based on, what you say, that fluiddruid's points made sense).

If you're thinking I'm scum, would this make any sense for me to do?

Yes, it would, seeing as how I already said I think the latter half of the votes would be the more apt to include scum.

So now I'm suspicious for who I don't vote for? A person who's role has yet to be revealed? The fact that percy was being quiet was a better reason than any other at the time to vote for anyone. Silent townies do not help the town.

I like how you're twisting what I'm saying very subtly. This raises my suspicion even more.

I'm saying that with your FOS of Projammer and (in the same post) being very "happy" with your vote of Lightnin', you abandoning both trails to jump on a bandwagon of votes for percy seven posts later looks odd.

Then why didn't you vote for her? Did you know she was town, and therefore knew to not vote for her needlessly?

Because I wasn't as suspicious of her as I was of others at the time.

I am being very open with my thoughts. Yes it seems callous to suggest that Lightnin's death would have been a benefit to us in any way, but we would have learned a lot more had he been the one to get lynched than we did from percy. Remember the people defending Lightnin'? There was no one that defended percy because there was no good argument to make in her defense.

Then, by the same token of all of your questions fired at me, why did you change your vote in the first place?

[dnooman]

You've said this twice now, although others have voiced their disagreement. At worst, silent townies help the town maintain a numerical advantage over its opponents.
Scum kills a silent townie...what do we learn? Nothing, zero information from a night kill. The last werewolf alive in WW1 was lurking big time throughout the entire game, had the town insisted on more input, they might have learned at least something about her. At worst silent townies provide no information to the town, the scum know that they're town, they already have that information. Silent townies can only help the scum.

[Idle Thoughts]

I expressed suspicion against someone and, when others voiced similar suspicion, I voted against that person. Is this actually an unusual tactic? Perhaps one of those two was Mafia, trying to start a bandwagon, but I doubt it. Omni no Kami was acting suspiciously. It really feels like you're reaching here.

Well, let me put it this way. Suppose you're scum. Well then, nothing to debate, really. That means you're lying and I'm hitting my mark.
Let's say you're town. Then you admit that you considered the first two (or one of them) COULD be Mafia and starting a bandwagon. Why so eager to cast your vote for him too, then?

Just seemed too easy, since he had fingered you (uh, maybe I better use a better term next time) and voted for you to just turn around and have a reason to vote for him back.

I dunno, but to me I didn't sense any warning signals coming from ONK.

[Lightnin']

Going back over the entire thread (ow, my eyes!), I'm inclined to be suspicious of CaerieD, Hal Briston, and dnooman, simply due to their propensity for bandwagon hopping.

Of those, CaerieD seems to be the most quiet. The only one of those who didn't vote for percypercy would be Hal Briston.

[Idle Thoughts]

Scum kills a silent townie...what do we learn? Nothing, zero information from a night kill.

You seem to be implying here (with the way you worded things) that you think NO scum would put in a vote for someone as silent as percypercy was. But I'm saying that it wouldn't take all of the scum to do it. I'm saying that, I'm betting, one or two (or as many as three) were possibly scum and helped it towards a lynch. And yes, I CAN see scum doing that. And I can see YOU being one of them.

And by the way, why would scum want to help us? You say if "[they] kill a silent townie..what do we learn? Nothing"

Well, that's what they'd want to leave with us. No info at all.

I don't see why it's so implausible to you that some scum jumped on the bandwagon of percy's death. Correct me if I'm wrong but then what are you stating?

[Idle Thoughts]

I guess this is as good a time as any to say that I won't be on at all tomorrow or the majority of Thursday.

The reason: I'm flying to New York tomorrow; leaving at about 11 and arriving about 5 pm their time and won't have any net access when I get there.

Thursday, I'll be out and about with my girlfriend and stuff and won't be able to have a free moment to find a library or university until about 4:30 (PM) again.

I hate to miss all that time, especially not even being able to check up on it to see what new happenings are going on and (in some cases I've seen) having all the votes start to tally against those who haven't shown their face for awhile (Probably because they're easy pickens not being on to be able to defend themselves). I can only hope it's the case here and, if it is, I'll be back well before day ends to catch up and reply.


But anyway, have fun everyone, in the meantime. I'll get back as soon as I can. It'll be sometime Thursday, without a doubt.

[Idle Thoughts]

NOT. :smack:

"Hope it's NOT the case here."

[tirial]

I hate being on GMT I've missed the day start (And I'm in front of my PC at 6:30 am)! For the record I'm a she.

Sorry Naf You will be missed. <puts flowers on grave>

We need to take a serious look at who derailed that bandwagon, and why, and who started and kept the percypercy bandwagon going.
Diggit and I voted for percypercy then a day later there were 4 extra votes (fluiddruid, dnooman, Blaster Master, CaerieD). However I will say that since NAF is confirmed town I am now suspicious of Lighnin'. If Lighnin was mafia, then forming another bandwagon would be a good way to protect him.
Lemur866 P486 But in order to head off the Lightning lynch, we've got to pick someone else, and that means bandwagoning on one of the people who have three votes already, compared to Lightning's five.
Or for scum to create a bandwagon against someone with two votes...
dnooman All of the scum knew that percypercy was town, why would they want to be associated with killing a known townie when it was clear he was going to die anyways?
To take pressure off Lightnin? When did the bandwagon form? It wasn't likely percypercy could swing instead of Lightnin until post 502
Post 626 I'm looking the hardest at tirial, who's posts strike me as a bit too diplomatic and calculated

I can understand why - problem is I'm reading the entire thread everytime I post any analysis, which is why my postcount is lower during the day, and its taken 40 minutes to write this. I voted for percypercy on Post 464 (04-22-2007, 08:59 AM ), Diggit voted for her in Post 370 (04-20-2007, 10:55 PM). In my defence, I will point out the voting pattern for the percypercy bandwagon (all times are BST):

Post 477 04-22-2007, 07:02 PM percypercy two votes. Lightnin' three votes
P478 Millit votes Lightnin
P481 Snakescatlady votes Lightnin
P484/5 - I pointed out the Lightnin' had quoted a mafia boss in his post
P490 Idle thoughts off Lighnin bandwagon.
P493 - Fluiddruid votes percypercy 04-23-2007 03:07 AM
P495 - dnooman votes percypercy
p496 - SnakesCatLady Off Lightnin bandwagon
P502 - Blastermaster votes percypercy (explaining why she is suspicious as scum)
P503 - I explain my reasoning (again) for my earlier vote P464.
P506 - CaerieD votes percypercy
P515 - Day ends 04-23-2007, 04:08 PM

I didn't post while the percypercy bandwagon was forming. My posts(484/485) before that were pointing out that Lightnin had quoted a mafia boss in his post and that I thought it was too obvious.

On the other hand, percypercy had two days to defend Diggit's vote and didn't, and a day and a half to defend against mine, and didn't. So even with twelve hours (approx) for her to defend against a bandwagon, later voters could be fairly certain that she wouldn't defend herself, so the mafia a) knew she was town and b) knew from her previous behaviour she probably wouldn't defend. An ideal target to take the pressure off one of your own.

And lemur866's post 486 saying avoiding a Lightnin lynch would require another bandwagon comes shortly before fluiddruid's vote for percypercy.

I'm not sure where I am going with this as at the momment everyone looks suspicious.

[Millit the Frail]

I'm just checking in. Sorry to see that NAF's been offed. I guess the Mafia agree with whomever said that an experienced Mafia player is the town's best asset. Or else NAF was a little too on to something. Hm.

Anyway, still suspicious of Lightnin', for the same reasons as yesterday, and also because his bandwagon was so abruptly stopped in favor of lynching a now-confirmed townie. It would have been very easy for the scum to pile on after I broke the tie vote and went after him. But...they didn't. I'm also suspicious of fluiddruid and dnooman for being right in the middle of the group who got percypercy lynched. The middle is an easy place for scum to be hiding....

[Omi no Kami]

As a general note I wanted to mention that I have finals this week, so I won't be around nearly as much as I'd like. That having been said:

CaerieD, Kyrie Eleison, and Rachm Qoch still look shady to me, I'm glad that other people agree... but I want to put in my two cents by advising that we hold off on anything big. There's very little concrete evidence at this point, other than the mini-bandwagon and the slimy feel one gets talking to them...

That having been said, I would advocate keeping a close eye on the three of them, but this is so early in the game I think we'd be best served rooting out the lurkers, like others have mentioned. Voting patterns alone might not be the smoking gnu (yes, the wildebeest) we need, if the scum is sitting in the wings and sniping targets of opportunity when they arise, but they still help. So I think we should focus on sweating the quiet ones to see where it leads.

[dnooman]

It would have been very easy for the scum to pile on after I broke the tie vote and went after him. But...they didn't.
Huh? The mafia didn't pile on? How do you know that? Only the Mafia know what the other mafia did at that point.

[tirial]

Anyway, still suspicious of Lightnin', for the same reasons as yesterday, and also because his bandwagon was so abruptly stopped in favor of lynching a now-confirmed townie. It would have been very easy for the scum to pile on after I broke the tie vote and went after him. But...they didn't.

How do you know? And would it have been more or less suspicious if people came out of the woodwork to jump on the Lightnin' bandwagon, once people had started pushing the case for percypercy? If Lightnin' had come out town after a lynch, at that point the mafia would have outed themselves through the voting pattern. Do they really care which townie we kill?

Of course, if Lightnin' was mafia then they'd push the percypercy bandwagon to protect him, so I'm not sure what we've learned from this (other than that I am a lousy judge of character).

Logically we should be able to get something from the people who voted for both, since we know that percypercy is town, but I'm not good enough at strategic analysis to work it out. My current thinking is that a later vote for both, switching from Lighnin to Percypercy would be suspicious, but I don't have anything solid. I'll drop my working notes in if anyone is interested but I am certain I have made errors, (and I tend to overthink these things) which is why I'm not FOSing anyone yet.

[dnooman]

I'm suspicious of enough people at this point that I think I need to go back to the basics in order to find out what we need to know.

vote Lightnin'. I should have never removed my vote from him in the first place. I guess I never really fleshed out the idea that made me change my mind. All things being equal though, percy still would have died given the total vote count.

I'm glad that my responses have been generating some discourse, that could prove to be very useful when I'm dead. I'm starting to think that the Mafia has a voice or two (maybe more) in our list of more prolific posters. I'm almost sure of it. I'm quite happy to ruffle a few feathers and die, as long as it secures a win for the town.

I have a bit of advice for the masons. I think that one or two of you should vote for another Mason at least once, unless doing so would make either of your identities obvious. The way that I determined who the masons were in WW1 was mainly a comparison of voting records. There was a group of people that had not voted for each other, plus a claimed Mason, all of who's voting records led me to correctly identify the Masons.

Use caution of course. The Mafia have to be smart enough to be voting for their own from the beginning in order to throw us off their scent. The Masons all being alive at the end of WW1 was pivotal to the town's success, they had a bloc vote. We need to preserve that as long as we can.

I say all of this because I fully expect to be either lynched or night killed very soon. I'm determined to have my corpse speak for me. I'd like to win at least one of these games.

[tirial]

I'm suspicious of enough people at this point that I think I need to go back to the basics in order to find out what we need to know.

vote Lightnin'. I should have never removed my vote from him in the first place. I guess I never really fleshed out the idea that made me change my mind. All things being equal though, percy still would have died given the total vote count.

No, he wouldn't. There's a scenario in which the mafia would need that 6th vote. Let me do some working out before I point any fingers, but you've got me thinking.

Dnooman from day One I said that if percypercy posted I would switch my vote. My second vote possibility was Projammer. What would the final vote count have been if you switch my vote across?

Will check and post reasoning.

[tirial]

No, he wouldn't. There's a scenario in which the mafia would need that 6th vote. Let me do some working out before I point any fingers, but you've got me thinking.

Dnooman from day One I said that if percypercy posted I would switch my vote. My second vote possibility was Projammer. What would the final vote count have been if you switch my vote across?


Right, I've checked. Tells us nothing about Lightnin, but may point the finger at someone else. My vote for Percypercy was unreliable from the mafia POV as I would have switched to projammer if Percypercy had posted. This only matters as Projammer was next in line to be lynched. If Projammer was mafia they needed a sixth vote to ensure Projammer was off the hook.

Details:
Looking into the facts: Post 408 closing vote count: percypercy 6, Projammer 3.
Up until CaerieD's vote in 506, if percypercy had posted and I had shifted my vote to Projammer (as I said I would do from the beginning) that would have been 4 Projammer 4 percypercy, giving a 50/50 chance.

Looking at this from someone else's view, discounting my knowledge of my role, and knowing that percypercy was town:
Tirial | Projammer | Outcome
Mafia | Mafia | vote would not switch
Mafia | Town | vote would switch (both targets are town)
Town | Mafia | vote would switch
Town | Town | vote would switch.

I know my alligence (town/mafia) and so do the mafia. The mason know mason/non-mason but not mafia/non-mafia. The town are the only people who don't know anything. From the town's POV there are 3 cases in 4 I'd switch my vote, from the mafia's its 100%. The town don't care if I switch. Therefore the extra vote to put percypercy on 6 would only be needed if the mafia thought I would switch and Projammer were mafia.

If I switched and they weren't ahead by 3 then Projammer was at 50/50 risk with percypercy.

If I hadn't got it horribly wrong last time, I would be voting. However I did, and it is equally possible CaerieD is town and hopping on bandwagons.

Its also interesting that a percypercy bandwagon started instead of going for the higher profile/more vote targets.

As it is FOS Projammer and CaerieD.

(By the way, I currently have a chorus of co-workers chiming in over my shoulder - I know this is a spectator sport, but I didn't realise that half the office would get hooked! And no I'm not discussing strategy with them and I haven't told them my role.)

[CaerieD]

So I'm coming across scummy, am I? Seriously, I think you need to reconsider your logic here. From the perspective of the Mafia, what good would it do to hop on board the end of a bandwagon against a Citizen? The Mafia would know that percypercy was town. They would know voting for her towards the end would look suspicious. They would put in their votes early with lots of analysis to back it up, or they wouldn't put in their votes at all. Another Citizen, on the other hand, has no idea what role percypercy is playing and is simply trying to follow her own instincts. My instincts were wrong. So were those of a lot of other people. My vote being the last being taken as a "scumtell" is very silly. Only a suicidal Mafioso would do that. It's far too early in the game for the scum to try sacrificing one of their own like that. The only person who would vote as I did would be a clueless Citizen.

My thoughts on the rest of you all:

fluiddruid - Not sure of. I've been looking in that direction for a while now, but nothing more has pinged my radar, which makes me think town with a bad first day.
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies - Not sure, leaning towards town.
Hal Briston - I don't have much to go on either way, so I'm leaning towards town for now.
nesta - Not sure, but I've considered scum a few times.
Projammer - This one, I just don't know. Especially after the sudden bandwagon on Day 1 that just as suddenly stopped.
SnakesCatLady - Not sure, but I'm leaning towards town.
Lightnin' - While NAF was looking at him suspiciously and even tossed votes that way and we know NAF was town, he was just vanilla. He had no more knowledge than the rest of us, as evidenced by the percypercy incident. Projammer seems like a better direction to look in than Lightnin', but even that doesn't seem very solid yet.
Lemur866 - I'm suspicious here, but nothing concrete to back it up yet.
tirial - Slightly less suspicious, but still on my radar.
Blaster Master - Ah, yes. The one who argued so eloquently for the lynching of percypercy. The one whose playing style has altered dramatically in this game and yet no one but me has seemed to really notice. Last time around, Blaster was voicing suspicions all over the place and very aggressive. Last time, he had a pro-town power role. This time around he's voicing far fewer suspicions and when he finally does go on the aggressive...it's against a Citizen. Think about it.
Millit the Frail - Not sure. I don't feel like I have much to go on here either way.
Rachm Qoch - Really not sure.
DiggitCamara - I lean towards town playing cautiously for now.
dnooman - I can see where others have seen a scummy vibe here. Not sure if I'd be willing to vote in that direction, but I can see why someone might.
Kyrie Eleison - Really not sure.
Omi No Kami - Not sure. I'd thought I might be looking at scum the first time around, but we have so little to go on the first round and I've already been wrong once.
Idle Thoughts - This one has puzzled me. At first I kept thinking scum, but then as I thought more about Blaster's change in persona, I realized something: Idle Thoughts is playing a lot like Blaster was in the last game. It's doubtful that scum would draw that much attention to himself. A pro-town role is most likely to come out swinging like this.

Considering that there are only six on here that I'd be willing to consider as town, I'm obviously being overly paranoid right now, but with the majority of players I just don't know. It's still so early in the game. We should all keep that in mind--we don't know anything yet except that NAF and percypercy were Citizens.

[tirial]

So I'm coming across scummy, am I? Seriously, I think you need to reconsider your logic here. From the perspective of the Mafia, what good would it do to hop on board the end of a bandwagon against a Citizen?

If Projammer is mafia, it makes a lot of sense for another mafia to make sure he wasn't lynched.

If percypercy had posted, without your vote it would have been 4/4 Percypercy/Projammer. With it it guaranteed percypercy swung. Lightnin was off the hook by that point as people had left his bandwagon.

As I said, you could be scum protecting scum or a townie joining a bandwagon, and I really can't tell which. This is why I'm not voting.

And right at the moment I am feeling paranoid, because there is enough in the thread to build a case against virtually anyone if you look hard.

[CaerieD]

If Projammer is mafia, it makes a lot of sense for another mafia to make sure he wasn't lynched.

If percypercy had posted, without your vote it would have been 4/4 Percypercy/Projammer. With it it guaranteed percypercy swung. Lightnin was off the hook by that point as people had left his bandwagon.

As I said, you could be scum protecting scum or a townie joining a bandwagon, and I really can't tell which. This is why I'm not voting.

And right at the moment I am feeling paranoid, because there is enough in the thread to build a case against virtually anyone if you look hard.

The problem here is that if I was scum and so was Projammer, it would be foolish to cast that vote in that case. It wouldn't remove suspicion from Projammer, but it would add it to me, increasing the odds that one or both of us would get lynched. While it might be quite noble to risk oneself for comrades, this is just a game. It'd be a poor tactic for the Mafia to do such a thing. They'd be more likely to pile on against Projammer in that case, to make themselves look innocent.

I switched my vote because I was still on the fence about Blaster and he'd provided good analysis. I'd explained my reasons for voting and I even said who I was going to finger if percypercy turned out to be town. If you really think Projammer is scum and someone was trying to save him, look at who was really pushing the percypercy bandwagon.

Or, you could put your vote where your mouth is. Think Projammer is scum? Let's find out. I've already been looking in that direction, though I'm still uncertain. Give me a good reason to vote for Projammer and I'll join you. This good reason shouldn't hinge on the fact that I didn't vote for Projammer, though. Frankly, I hadn't even paid attention to the fact that you'd said you were going to switch votes before I voted.

[fluiddruid]

The Mafia would know that percypercy was town. They would know voting for her towards the end would look suspicious. They would put in their votes early with lots of analysis to back it up, or they wouldn't put in their votes at all. True, to a point. The strongest argument against this is that there were several failed bandwagons that encountered a lot of votes (and FOS). What if Lightnin' and/or Projammer were Mafia? How does that change the situation? How many people didn't have a vote on one of those three?

There were legitimate town reasons to vote for percypercy next to those two candidates, but, there were also legitimate scum reasons to do it if percypercy's vote was intended to save someone else. A derailed bandwagon -- let alone two -- so late in Day One, I think, tells us as much as percypercy's unfortunate lynching.

Now, we'll have to be a bit realistic. The Mafia didn't have a chance to talk, presumably, until after percypercy got the noose. Only so much cooperation makes sense on Day One.

I'm also suspicious of fluiddruid and dnooman for being right in the middle of the group who got percypercy lynched. The middle is an easy place for scum to be hiding...When I voted for percypercy, I didn't really consider him a serious lynching candidate. I just got absolutely no scum feeling about Projammer at the time, based on the arguments that were out there. I assumed that the bandwagon was going to roll over on Projammer anyway and I thought it would be a good time to point out that a less active player means less chance for a power role accidentally lynching, which would have been catastrophic for Town. Did it work? I guess, and in a way I didn't expect, with several other votes coming in to save Projammer. I guess I'd like to hear more from those who voted for either.

[Projammer]

(By the way, I currently have a chorus of co-workers chiming in over my shoulder - I know this is a spectator sport, but I didn't realise that half the office would get hooked! And no I'm not discussing strategy with them and I haven't told them my role.)

Had to go ahead and respond to this part. I'll address the rest with a more detailed posting when I get the chance. Not a slow day at work today.

If any of them are betting that I'm mafia, go ahead and take their money.

[DiggitCamara]

Would DiggitCamara and Rachm Qoch please state explicitly what they don't agree with me about? Explicitly.
Like I've said, several times, I'm trying to fight the notion that there was a significant danger of Projammer's lynching previous to the Lightnin'-percypercy swing of votes.

Like tirial has pointed out, one of the main reasons the scum might be interested in swinging the vote against percypercy might be to deflect a possible lynching of one of their own.

Just before the swing started I announced I wasn't going to be able to log in until after the day had ended. Why is this significant? Because my statement secured at least one vote for percypercy and made her a better target to change the outcome of the lynching (I, at least, was sure Lightnin' was a sure goner).

And, since I'm showcasing my disagreements with your positions, dnooman, I'd like to add one thing: the reasoning that made you switch your vote from Lightnin' to percypercy is spurious at best. If Lightnin' were a mason, he would certainly have used it in his defense. Your "epiphany" came completely out of left field and makes a flimsy explanation for your vote change.

[DiggitCamara]

I am suspicious of you because you seem so determined to be suspicious of me. And as you said above: "anyone who seems to spread suspicion lightly..."

I am also very suspicious of Projammer. Both of our dearly departed townies had voted for him, and I think much more highly of NAF1138's abilities in this game than I do of my own. I think that is why he was killed off so fast.
Might as well address this one at well:

My FOS on you is very light and is mainly based on your infrequent posting on day one. Which brings me again to my question: why do you think I am "determined to be suspicious" of you?

As far as I can tell, thus far I only have 3 posts which talk about you: my list of FOS on day one, my question this day to clarify my supposed hounding of you and this one.

[Lemur866]

OK, here's my thoughts.

As I see it, there were three people in danger of swinging on the first day. Percypercy, Lightnin', and Projammer. I was one of those that tried to stop the Lightning bandwagon. Not because I have any secret knowledge of his status, but because I couldn't believe a mafiosi would be so unsmooth after getting accused.

So, I'm not saying we should lynch Lightning, we have no good reason to do so. But when Lightning turns up dead, his status will shed some light on this first day's vote. If he turns out to be mafia then all of us who derailed his lynching turn into prime suspects. If he turns out to be mason, then that's a pretty good reason for people to protect him. If he turns out to be town, well, then it was just one of those things where people protected him because he seemed like a townsman. And those people that suspected him are a little bit more scummy...although we know NAF suspected him, and NAF was proven innocent. It's very possible this early for townsmen to suspect townsmen, that shouldn't be taken as evidence of scummyness.

[Lightnin']

vote Lightnin'. I should have never removed my vote from him in the first place. I guess I never really fleshed out the idea that made me change my mind. All things being equal though, percy still would have died given the total vote count.

Of the three bandwagoneers I mentioned earlier, you were the only one I didn't put a qualifier on.


Going back over the entire thread (ow, my eyes!), I'm inclined to be suspicious of CaerieD, Hal Briston, and dnooman, simply due to their propensity for bandwagon hopping.

Of those, CaerieD seems to be the most quiet. The only one of those who didn't vote for percypercy would be Hal Briston.

What I didn't say, however, was that of the three, you were the only one who jumped from the bandwagon against me to the bandwagon against percypercy. Now, I think that'd be suspicious in and of itself, but now that you've voted against me now that percypercy is out of the way, I'm going to have to vote dnooman.

Granted, I'm using insider knowledge here- I know that I'm not Mafia, and therefore I'm suspicious of anyone who accuses me. :)

However, I think it's still suspicious that you were on my bandwagon when it looked like I was going to be lynched, and then when the tide swung percypercy's direction and it looked like I wasn't going to be swinging, you hopped onto the next easiest person to frame.

[Hal Briston]

Ok, I've been looking back at the events since "last night", and two of dnooman's posts are really screaming out at me:

Post #545 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8503219&postcount=545):
If the Mafia try to recruit a doogooder, or get doctor blocked, or night watchman blocked, do they know what happened?This post was made just as night fell. My reply question is, why do you ask? Yes, a townie could ask it, and the answer would give us a tiny grain of information, but that's information that would be of much more use to scum.

Next up is post #608 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8503219&postcount=608):
Only four people received 0 votes on day one, Hal Briston, tirial, Blaster Master, and Rachm Qoch. That means that there is a very good chance that a scum or even more than one scum has been voted for and possibly dodged a bullet. If any of those people are masons, then the other masons would know that a mafia was voted for at least once. Who? That's the big question.Someone please correct me if I'm wrong here, but this reads to me like dnooman knows exactly how many players are scum, no?

Perhaps I'm reading this completely wrong, but it seems to me like he just slipped and stated that there are four scum players. Am I missing something with this?

[Millit the Frail]

How do you know? And would it have been more or less suspicious if people came out of the woodwork to jump on the Lightnin' bandwagon, once people had started pushing the case for percypercy? If Lightnin' had come out town after a lynch, at that point the mafia would have outed themselves through the voting pattern. Do they really care which townie we kill?

Of course, if Lightnin' was mafia then they'd push the percypercy bandwagon to protect him, so I'm not sure what we've learned from this (other than that I am a lousy judge of character).

Logically we should be able to get something from the people who voted for both, since we know that percypercy is town, but I'm not good enough at strategic analysis to work it out. My current thinking is that a later vote for both, switching from Lighnin to Percypercy would be suspicious, but I don't have anything solid. I'll drop my working notes in if anyone is interested but I am certain I have made errors, (and I tend to overthink these things) which is why I'm not FOSing anyone yet.

As for your question about Mafia coming out of the woodwork to vote Lightnin' if he were town, I think it's moot. The Mafia knows what he is, and so it wouldn't have been any big surprise to them if he were to "turn up town." There would be no big "oops" moment. He would have been as good a townie to kill as percypercy...except that (IMHO, of course) he's not a townie. The percypercy bandwagon was basically "she's scum because she's quiet," right? Lame. I said it then and I'll say it again, she was just an overly cautious townie.

And I think you're spot on in your second paragraph.

Yeah, I'm still focused on this. I was sure enough of Lightnin's scum status that I made the crucial vote. That would have made me look really bad had he turned up town....but I don't think he is.

And what's this I hear about lynching lurkers? I don't like it much. Maybe because I haven't been posting much. But as I said, I'm not lurking, I'm just on bridesmaid duty right now, so I'm posting whenever I can get a wireless connection. This is hard!!

[SnakesCatLady]

Might as well address this one at well:

My FOS on you is very light and is mainly based on your infrequent posting on day one. Which brings me again to my question: why do you think I am "determined to be suspicious" of you?

As far as I can tell, thus far I only have 3 posts which talk about you: my list of FOS on day one, my question this day to clarify my supposed hounding of you and this one.

You commented on my "lack" of participation in post 482. You then seemed determined to bring it up again in post 489, even though I had posted stating that I didn't have anything to articulate at the time. No one else seems to be worried that I'm not posting every sixty seconds and there are several other posters who have posted much less than I have.

I think you are scum trying to get a bandwagon started on me and I'm going to do my best to not let it happen.

[DiggitCamara]

You commented on my "lack" of participation in post 482. You then seemed determined to bring it up again in post 489, even though I had posted stating that I didn't have anything to articulate at the time. No one else seems to be worried that I'm not posting every sixty seconds and there are several other posters who have posted much less than I have.

I think you are scum trying to get a bandwagon started on me and I'm going to do my best to not let it happen.
Well.... nope. Two posts do not (in my mind) a hounding make. Much less a bandwaggoning (especially since not many have my fixation on post-counting ;) )

Still: it is in town's interest to generate useful information. And that information should come from the posts we generate! That's the reason why I left my vote on percypercy: I hoped to get some kind of response. And her lack of response was what ultimately spelled her doom.

[DiggitCamara]

And back to my favorite theme: the swing from Lightnin' to percypercy.

I think the crucial time to inspect starts with post #477 and ends at #495.

#477-- Omi no Kami, Lightnin' and Projammer tied at 3 votes (percypercy at 2)
#481-- SnakesCatLady votes for Lightnin'
#490-- IdleThoughts unvotes Lightnin'
#493-- fluiddruid votes percypercy (while FOS->Lightnin')
#495--dnooman switches his vote from Lightnin' to percypercy (percypercy=4 votes), citing fluiddruid's reasoning for his switch


Shortly afterwards BlasterMaster votes for percypercy, sealing her doom.

My reading of this:

1. There was no bandwagon against Projammer. He had 3 votes against him, as did Omi no Kami and Lightnin'
2. dnooman's participation in percypercy's lynching was crucial. It was as if he had voted once for Lightnin' and once against percypercy.
3. BlasterMaster's participation in the deal is interesting: it was the second time he tried to derail the movement against Lightnin' (the first came when he seconded Omi no Kami's FOS against CaerieD)

[Rachm Qoch]

Why? I stated at the time of my vote, and I'll say again now, when it comes to round one and the odds are against us, I'd rather take down a quiet/less contributory townie if necessary. Yes, it sucks, but we would have been pretty lucky to clue in perfectly.

Besides... why should we fear to share strategy? I don't see a reason for townies to be secretive with one another (other than role claims / investigations, purely for the purposes of self-protection). If you die, you take it to the grave.

Of course I can't disagree that some lynchings are worse than others. No doubt lynching the Detective or Watchman is worse than lynching a vanilla townie. Or a Mason vs. Vanilla. And I'm not questioning the fact that lynching a participating townie is worse than one who doesn't contribute anything. But I'd never go so far as to say I'd be HAPPY with voting for a townie to hang!!! ::eyes dnooman::

I put any town lynching in the "bad" category.
The only good lynching is a mafia lynching.

That should go without saying, but apparently some need to be reminded of that.

Regarding strategy:
If you say we must gather our wits together (that's what I think you're saying) then I'm with you. We shouldn't be secretive with each other UNLESS it is detrimental to the town. But when it drifts into speculating who might or might not be Masons, as some have done, it's a bad thing, at least in this very early stage.

[tirial]

Only four people received 0 votes on day one, Hal Briston, tirial, Blaster Master, and Rachm Qoch. That means that there is a very good chance that a scum or even more than one scum has been voted for and possibly dodged a bullet. If any of those people are masons, then the other masons would know that a mafia was voted for at least once. Who? That's the big question.
OK, I have had a really bad day at work and I'm not thinking clearly, but could you clarify your last sentence?
If any of those people are masons, then the other masons would know that a mafia was voted for at least once.
I know the argument saying there are between 4-6 mafia. If there's 5 or more mafia, it is clear that at least one, probably two mafia got voted for, even if you are a townie. Why do you need to be a mason to know this? If one or more of the four not voted for is a mason, that just raises the number of mafia that received votes.

[tirial]

If one or more of the four not voted for is a mason, that just raises the number of mafia that received votes.
Actually considering, it doesn't raise the number of mafia that must have received votes, it just means the masons know that the minimum number of mafia members that got voted for is one higher than the rest of us think.

16 of 20 posters voted for.
* If mason is remaining 4.
+ If no masion in remaining 4.
(+ always applies to townies)
Mafia If mason* If not+.
4 1 0
5 2 1
6 3 2

How does this help us ID mafia? And why are masons important? The last thing a mason should do is reveal role if they are one of the four - it doesn't tell us anything valuable.

[nesta]

And back to my favorite theme: the swing from Lightnin' to percypercy.
I think the crucial time to inspect starts with post #477 and ends at #495.

#477-- Omi no Kami, Lightnin' and Projammer tied at 3 votes (percypercy at 2)
#481-- SnakesCatLady votes for Lightnin'


You missed one:

#478 - Millit the Frail votes for Lightnin'

[DiggitCamara]

You missed one:

#478 - Millit the Frail votes for Lightnin'

Right you are :smack:
If I'm counting correctly, that makes dnooman's switcheroo exactly the point at which percypercy went from 3 votes to 4 and Lightnin' from 4 votes to 3.

[Lightnin']

Right you are :smack:
If I'm counting correctly, that makes dnooman's switcheroo exactly the point at which percypercy went from 3 votes to 4 and Lightnin' from 4 votes to 3.

Which might imply that I'm Mafia, and he was trying to cover for me... except that he's now voted to lynch me again. I'm the easiest target right now, so if he's Mafia I'm a safe vote for him.

[Lemur866]

Well, that gives 4 scenarios.

Lightning town, dnooman town
Lightning mafia, dnooman town
Lightning town, dnooman mafia
Lightning mafia, dnooman mafia

Dnooman switched from Lightning to percypercy at a suspicious (for certain values of suspicious) time.

So, suposing for a second that dnooman is mafia, his only motive to switch from Lightning to percypercy is if Lightning is also a mafiosi.

Which means that the only scenario that I think can be ruled out is 3, I don't think Lightning could be a townie at the same time as dnooman is a mafiosi. But either of the other three could be true. However, I'm one of those that derailed the Lightning bandwagon as well, on the grounds that I was convinced Lightning was town. If that's true, then the only scenario that makes sense is scenario 1, both are townsmen engaging in friendly fire.

[DiggitCamara]

Which might imply that I'm Mafia, and he was trying to cover for me... except that he's now voted to lynch me again. I'm the easiest target right now, so if he's Mafia I'm a safe vote for him.


I have a bit of advice for the masons. I think that one or two of you should vote for another Mason at least once, unless doing so would make either of your identities obvious. The way that I determined who the masons were in WW1 was mainly a comparison of voting records. There was a group of people that had not voted for each other, plus a claimed Mason, all of who's voting records led me to correctly identify the Masons.


Substitute "Masons" for "scum" and you'd have an explanation for both of dnooman's votes... if you're both scum. (And, for that matter, explains your votes to this point) (see this (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8504101&postcount=643) post)

And, Lemur866, how and when did you "derail" the Lightnin' bandwagon?

I think the crucial time to inspect starts with post #477 and ends at #495.
In post #659 I detailed the actors that helped swing the votes and I don't see your name there.

[Lightnin']

Well, that gives 4 scenarios.

(snip)

So, supposing for a second that dnooman is mafia, his only motive to switch from Lightning to percypercy is if Lightning is also a mafiosi.

Well, there's one more motive, which would keep #3 still in play. The Mafia want townies strung up, right? Well, they knew that percypercy was Town, and the votes seemed to be swinging from stringing me up, to stringing her up. If stringing me up was a lost cause, then voting to string up percypercy would be the safe move.

I'm kind of dubious that the Mafia would be willing to sacrifice one of their own, especially this early in the game.

[Lemur866]

Yes, mafia want townies strung up. We know percypercy was a townie, now that we, you know, killed her. So supposing that you're also a townie, why should the mafia care which of you get strung up? Switching votes to jump on the percypercy bandwagon at the last minute makes no sense, because the mafia and only the mafia knew she was innocent. Not that it's impossible, just that switching to the innocent percypercy doesn't help them in any way.

The only way it helps is if you are mafia and the other mafia want to make damn sure that no last minute vote change gets you hung. If you're town, why should they care which of two townies get hung?

There's no sacrifice involved, because the mafia knows who isn't mafia.

[Lemur866]

And, Lemur866, how and when did you "derail" the Lightnin' bandwagon?
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8490871&postcount=421
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8494445&postcount=486

[tirial]

[QUOTE=Lemur866]Switching votes to jump on the percypercy bandwagon at the last minute makes no sense, because the mafia and only the mafia knew she was innocent. Not that it's impossible, just that switching to the innocent percypercy doesn't help them in any way.
QUOTE]

There were three potential victims - percypercy, Lightnin, but there was also Projammer, who was on 3 votes throughout. Switching to or voting for percypercy would help protect anyone who was on three votes when the Lightnin bandwagon fell apart.

In 477 that was Lighnin', Projammer and Omi no Kami, all on 3.
By 508, after the bandwagon fell apart it was percypercy (6), Projammer (3), Lighnin (2) and Omi No Kami (2)

Vote jumps within this set were:
dnooman (Lightnin to percypercy 495)
CaerieD (Omi no Kami to Percy Percy 506)

Two of Projammer's votes were Naf1138 and percypercy, both confirmed town. Unfortunately they were going on the same info as the rest of us, so that's not enough info to be suspicious on its own

[SnakesCatLady]

Two of Projammer's votes were Naf1138 and percypercy, both confirmed town. Unfortunately they were going on the same info as the rest of us, so that's not enough info to be suspicious on its own

It might not be enough but it makes me really suspicious. WasNAF1139's vote for Projammer one of the reasons the Mafia took him out? He had also voted (and unvoted) for fluiddruid andLightnin'.

vote Projammer.

[Projammer]

Note that I NEVER had a vote on NAF. I had a tentative FOS on him pending identifying Lightnin as scum. And with NAF confirmed as town, Lightnin is coming up higher than ever. And PercyPercy was never on my radar at all. Not sure where you're getting your info from.

Since I'm here vote Lightnin

[Projammer]

Doh! :smack: You were saying they had voted for me. Quite right.

My vote stands however.

[Projammer]

It might not be enough but it makes me really suspicious. WasNAF1139's vote for Projammer one of the reasons the Mafia took him out? He had also voted (and unvoted) for fluiddruid andLightnin'.

vote Projammer.

That doesn't strike you as being just a bit too obvious? Taking out someone who had voted for me after that wagon lost its wheels? More likely, and apparently I'm betting my life on this, NAF was targeted because he was arguably the most experienced player in this game and therefor the biggest threat to them.

[DiggitCamara]

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8490871&postcount=421
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8494445&postcount=486

Ah, I see where you're coming from.

However, I don't think it really counts as part of the "derailing". You didn't actually vote or unvote him; you just voiced your (just?) concerns about a bandwagon that was out to get him. You didn't even FOS percypercy in that second post (which falls in the critical period. (As for the first... well, let's just say that I'm glad I finally get some support for my "townies shouldn't lurk" meme)

[fluiddruid]

That doesn't strike you as being just a bit too obvious? Taking out someone who had voted for me after that wagon lost its wheels? More likely, and apparently I'm betting my life on this, NAF was targeted because he was arguably the most experienced player in this game and therefor the biggest threat to them.
That could be true. After all, NAF had garnered a bit of suspicion himself, and the scum could have taken out a more trusted townie.

On the flip side, though, percypercy is dead and you aren't. I think it only makes sense for us to try to understand why. With you and Lightnin' garnering so much suspicion but yet failing to get a true bandwagon - was it a coincidence based on the timing? Isn't it worth exploring?

In the end, your death -- or Lightnin's, in my opinion -- would tell us a lot. I'm sure that's where these accusations are coming from. On the flip side, I think we should be looking for scum tells rather than informative deaths. And, I'm not wholly convinced the ongoing bandwagon against you isn't scum-driven as an easy townie target.

[fluiddruid]

well, let's just say that I'm glad I finally get some support for my "townies shouldn't lurk" memeWe should absolutely not tolerate that in this round (barring the folks who have legitimate reasons and specific dates/times they cannot post). Some people were never voted for last round based on their relative lack of FOSs and voting - they're lying too low on the radar for my taste and everyone should be accountable for their post record.

[Gadarene]

barring the folks who have legitimate reasons and specific dates/times they cannot post

Speaking of which, I'm going to be out of town (and away from the Internet) attending my roommates' wedding from Friday afternoon to Sunday evening. We'll deal with that when it gets here; depending on whether the day is completed by then, it might be only minimally intrusive. Either way, something will be worked out. This is just a heads-up.

[Lightnin']

Speaking of which, I'm going to be out of town (and away from the Internet) attending my roommates' wedding from Friday afternoon to Sunday evening. We'll deal with that when it gets here; depending on whether the day is completed by then, it might be only minimally intrusive. Either way, something will be worked out. This is just a heads-up.

Oh, good. I'm going to be out of town those days as well.

[Lemur866]

I agree that we should be cautious about stringing players up just to satisfy our curiosity. Remember that the mafia are going to be killing one of us every night. Now, it's likely they'll try to avoid killing players whose deaths will unlock information cascades. But they can't help but give us more information every night.

That said, I'm really curious about what's inside dnooman's and Lightning's crunchy candy shells. Too bad we can't find out the truth without them ending up, you know, dead.

I have no more reason to suspect Lightning this round than I did last round. And overanalysis of the first day and night is almost certain to be misguided, since the mafiosi are almost certainly trying for some misdirection. In other words, the obvious suspects are the least obvious suspects...those who haven't done much of anything.

[Omi no Kami]

In other words, the obvious suspects are the least obvious suspects...those who haven't done much of anything.

I say lynch the slackers, lynch 'em! ...but seriously, I am kind of miffed at the pattern that keeps showing up in this games: you get lots of townies and a few scum who all post frequently, make accusations, defend themselves, and get lynched... while at least some of the mob simply don't participate, and insulate themselves from suspicion until the endgame.

[SnakesCatLady]

This is very much a problem for me. If I don't post much, I'm seen as a lurker and probably scum. If I post more but don't say much, it's "fluff" and I'm probably scum. If I just don't have any suspicions or insight to offer...I'm seen as scum. So it's a no-win situation for me no matter what I do. I am trying to spot patterns and see what makes me suspicious, but I don't want to raise suspicions on someone until I think I have something to go on, because I don't like the idea of lynching an innocent townie.

[Omi no Kami]

This is very much a problem for me. If I don't post much, I'm seen as a lurker and probably scum. If I post more but don't say much, it's "fluff" and I'm probably scum. If I just don't have any suspicions or insight to offer...I'm seen as scum. So it's a no-win situation for me no matter what I do. I am trying to spot patterns and see what makes me suspicious, but I don't want to raise suspicions on someone until I think I have something to go on, because I don't like the idea of lynching an innocent townie.

Well I don't have any good ideas either, so I like to basically talk my thoughts out in a post. Just looking back to the first day, I either got a few innocents ticked off at me or bumping into a scum-led lynch mob. Either way, it provoked a reaction which gives us that much more information. As townies information is the only thing we have, so it's really essential to speak out.

[fluiddruid]

This is very much a problem for me. If I don't post much, I'm seen as a lurker and probably scum. If I post more but don't say much, it's "fluff" and I'm probably scum. If I just don't have any suspicions or insight to offer...I'm seen as scum. So it's a no-win situation for me no matter what I do. I am trying to spot patterns and see what makes me suspicious, but I don't want to raise suspicions on someone until I think I have something to go on, because I don't like the idea of lynching an innocent townie.None of us really knows much for sure - except the scum. It's important to keep hearing everyone's thoughts. I know, I'm struggling too and we're all grasping at straws. Just give your thoughts, your suspicions... that's what the game's about.

[SnakesCatLady]

That doesn't strike you as being just a bit too obvious? Taking out someone who had voted for me after that wagon lost its wheels? More likely, and apparently I'm betting my life on this, NAF was targeted because he was arguably the most experienced player in this game and therefor the biggest threat to them.

percypercy had also voted for you and ended up getting lynched; I imagine there were at least a few scum votes in there.

[dnooman]

What I didn't say, however, was that of the three, you were the only one who jumped from the bandwagon against me to the bandwagon against percypercy. Now, I think that'd be suspicious in and of itself, but now that you've voted against me now that percypercy is out of the way, I'm going to have to vote dnooman.

Granted, I'm using insider knowledge here- I know that I'm not Mafia, and therefore I'm suspicious of anyone who accuses me. :)

However, I think it's still suspicious that you were on my bandwagon when it looked like I was going to be lynched, and then when the tide swung percypercy's direction and it looked like I wasn't going to be swinging, you hopped onto the next easiest person to frame.
This is called an OMGUS vote (Oh my god you suck) it means voting for someone who voted for you for that very reason. Not good strategy.

So you think that I'm scum, voted for you (you say townie), then when you weren't gonna swing I voted for another innocent townie in order to secure a town lynch? Does that really sound like good strategy for a scum? If you turn up town that would sure make me look dirty wouldn't it? Would I want that sort of negative attention if I were in the minority?

I'm getting a lot of suspicion thrown my way due to my votes, I'm perfectly fine with that. It's all about getting the scum to slip up and making determinations from the record after a few roles are known.

My reasoning for switching has been stated and I'm not going to pretend that there was any other reason for my switch because lying is bad for the town.

DiggitCamara really seems to be going after me, we'll see how that turns out won't we?

[Rachm Qoch]

In 477 that was Lighnin', Projammer and Omi no Kami, all on 3.
By 508, after the bandwagon fell apart it was percypercy (6), Projammer (3), Lighnin (2) and Omi No Kami (2)

Vote jumps within this set were:
dnooman (Lightnin to percypercy 495)
CaerieD (Omi no Kami to Percy Percy 506) I don't know what to think about that -- on one end of the spectrum is CaerieD, who is pinging town. On the other end are three I'm just not sure about.
Using Lemur866's logic from post #669 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8506054&postcount=669) exonerates dnooman and CaerieD only if both Lightnin' and Omi no Kami are also town. I can't go that far out on a limb and chalk all four up as townies at this point.

[DiggitCamara]

I don't know what to think about that -- on one end of the spectrum is CaerieD, who is pinging town. On the other end are three I'm just not sure about.
Using Lemur866's logic from post #669 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8506054&postcount=669) exonerates dnooman and CaerieD only if both Lightnin' and Omi no Kami are also town. I can't go that far out on a limb and chalk all four up as townies at this point.

Nope. Lemur866's logic makes both Lightnin' and dnooman scum:

1. dnooman (clever scum) sees Lightnin' in trouble.
2. He waits for the moment where, under "cover" of fluiddruid's (citizen?) post he switches votes, swinging the vote count to help Lightnin' survive

Number 2 didn't go that well. After all, she FOS-ed Lightnin' and only said he might have some power role and dnooman translated that into "he's probably mason".

Why wouldn't someone about to be lynched refrain from claiming? Your guess is as good as mine.




So supposing that you're also a townie, why should the mafia care which of you get strung up? Switching votes to jump on the percypercy bandwagon at the last minute makes no sense, because the mafia and only the mafia knew she was innocent. Not that it's impossible, just that switching to the innocent percypercy doesn't help them in any way.

The only way it helps is if you are mafia and the other mafia want to make damn sure that no last minute vote change gets you hung. If you're town, why should they care which of two townies get hung?

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

I'm now back at the Portland airport, attempting resurrection-by-whiskey after 2 days of death-by-powerpoint. My apologies if my posting volume has been sparce, but I should be all clear for the duration of the game.

I would not want to be Projammer right now. The legacy left by both of our dearly departed townies does not bode well for him.

At this point, I trust in the judgment of the dead more than the judgement of the living. I might be inclined to be looking at dnooman right now if it weren't for the vague suspicions that I have for the people who are in turn suspicious of him.

Vote Projammer.

[DiggitCamara]

It's late:
In my last post I wrote

"Number 2 didn't go that well. After all, she FOS-ed Lightnin' and only said he might have some power role and dnooman translated that into "he's probably mason". "

I wanted to write

"Number 2 didn't go that well. After all, fluiddruid FOS-ed Lightnin' and only said he might have some power role and dnooman translated that into "he's probably mason". "

and

"Why wouldn't someone about to be lynched refrain from claiming? Your guess is as good as mine."

when I meant

"Why would someone with a power role who's about to be lynched refrain from claiming? Your guess is as good as mine."

[Rachm Qoch]

Nope. Lemur866's logic makes both Lightnin' and dnooman scum:

1. dnooman (clever scum) sees Lightnin' in trouble.
2. He waits for the moment where, under "cover" of fluiddruid's (citizen?) post he switches votes, swinging the vote count to help Lightnin' survive

Number 2 didn't go that well. After all, she FOS-ed Lightnin' and only said he might have some power role and dnooman translated that into "he's probably mason".

Why wouldn't someone about to be lynched refrain from claiming? Your guess is as good as mine.
OK, you're right, that scenario theoretically works. But that leaves me wondering why dnooman would go to all that trouble jeopardizing a fellow mafioso on day one when he's just going to wagon an innocent townie in the end. Before they even had a chance to meet up and rig things, no less. I'd bank on one or the other being Mafia, but probably not both.

[CaerieD]

OK, you're right, that scenario theoretically works. But that leaves me wondering why dnooman would go to all that trouble jeopardizing a fellow mafioso on day one when he's just going to wagon an innocent townie in the end. Before they even had a chance to meet up and rig things, no less. I'd bank on one or the other being Mafia, but probably not both.

It's possible one or the other is Mafia, but I have to agree that the chances seem pretty dim for them to both be Mafia. There aren't going to be any elaborate, Machiavellian conspiracies from the scum on the first day when they haven't had a night to plot beforehand. They're only allowed to communicate at night, so at best you'll see somebody slip up on the first day.

[Lightnin']

This is called an OMGUS vote (Oh my god you suck) it means voting for someone who voted for you for that very reason. Not good strategy.

Nope, I'm not voting for you strictly because you voted for me, and there's no OMGUS factor to it. I'm voting for you because you, and the two others I posted, CaerieD and Hal Briston, were the only three that jumped from one bandwagon to another. You, in particular, jumped from me (the easy lynch) and then to percypercy. Now that percypercy has been lynched out of the picture, you jumped back to the easy lynch (me).

I'm not doing it because you voted against me. I'm doing it because your voting pattern looks scummy.


So you think that I'm scum, voted for you (you say townie), then when you weren't gonna swing I voted for another innocent townie in order to secure a town lynch? Does that really sound like good strategy for a scum? If you turn up town that would sure make me look dirty wouldn't it? Would I want that sort of negative attention if I were in the minority?

Sure, it's a valid strategy. Never initiate votes, but reinforce votes against Townsfolk- that way you don't look too aggressive. If your first choice looks like it's not going to happen, go for a backup.

Well, since I know that I'm Town, and so was percypercy, I'd say that yes- it does make you look dirty, at least to me. From my point of view, you haven't voted for anyone but Town. I realize that I can't directly convince anyone else of that, of course, but I'm not trying to use that to convince anyone else.


I'm getting a lot of suspicion thrown my way due to my votes, I'm perfectly fine with that.

Ultimately speaking, voting patterns are the only information we have to draw from- so, yeah, you're getting a lot of suspicion thrown your way due to your votes.

[Hal Briston]

...and Hal Briston, were the only three that jumped from one bandwagon to another.Heh...that would be the way I jumped from the NAF bandwagon ("bandwagon" in this case, being defined as "having one vote") to the DarkSideCookies bandwagon ("bandwagon" in this case, being defined as "having zero votes")?

[dnooman]

Nope. Lemur866's logic makes both Lightnin' and dnooman scum:

1. dnooman (clever scum) sees Lightnin' in trouble.
2. He waits for the moment where, under "cover" of fluiddruid's (citizen?) post he switches votes, swinging the vote count to help Lightnin' survive

Number 2 didn't go that well. After all, she FOS-ed Lightnin' and only said he might have some power role and dnooman translated that into "he's probably mason".

Why wouldn't someone about to be lynched refrain from claiming? Your guess is as good as mine.
So you think myself and Lightnin' are both scum, I vote for him in order to be clever by voting for a fellow Mafia, then decide to join a townie lynch that didn't even need my vote to kill percy? Did you notice that I'm voting for him again? Would I be doing that if I were scum?

Lightnin' got real quiet right before the day was over, no claim. I'm inclined to think then that he's definitely not a mason now, and that he's scum.

On preview, if Lightnin' gets lynched and turns out to be town, then yes I will have only voted for townies. I don't have any insider information to prevent me from doing such a thing.

[Lemur866]

Look, to me the main scenario that doesn't make sense is that both dnooman and Lighting are mafia. But the most likely scenario is that both are town.

[nesta]

The question I've been asking myself since percypercy turned out to be town is why her bandwagon took off when Projammer's stalled so early. If we believe the Mafia had a hand in solidifying the percypercy bandwagon (which is an assumption I think is correct) then why didn't they choose the Projammer bandwagon that was already started?

I see a few possibilities:
a) Projammer is scum, and they were ready to jump on the most likely bandwagon so that he wouldn’t be lynched.
b) Projammer is town, but they were scared that it would lead back to them if they bandwagoned him.
c) Projammer is town, and they just didn’t think his bandwagon was as likely as percypercy’s to go the distance.

Starting with option c first, I don’t think this is likely. At the crucial time when votes were falling off of Lightnin’ Projammer had three votes, and was actually a better candidate for the bandwagon. Projammer’s bandwagon had me, NAF1138, and percypercy on it. NAF1138 was controversial, but had also garnered a little trust. They would have also had my and NAF1138’s simul-post analysis of our suspicion for Projammer to fall back on as a defense for why they voted for him. They could also be pretty sure that percypercy, already a little suspected, would take much of the heat. If I were scum and had to choose a townie to bandwagon, and Projammer was town, I would have chosen him.

For option b, I think many of the same arguments as option c apply. The only addition is that a few people had openly voiced suspicion of the Projammer bandwagon. Notably post 449 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8492595&postcount=449) where Idle Thoughts says this:

This sudden (seeming) bandwagon on Projammer is opening up new suspicions to me.

I, personally, haven't seen anything weird with him (her?). I've read over all the past posts that people linked too but I just don't see the intentions that some seem to be attributing to them. Granted people said the same thing about things I found off with fluidruid, so maybe it's just what one interprets from one's own POV.

The only odd thing I saw him make was the whole masons will be against townies post that nesta pointed out. Other than that though, nothing hits me.

I'm going to start keeping my eye on his posts more, that's for sure...but for right now I'm a bit more leery of those suddenly rushing in to vote for him then him himself.
And in post 452 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8492690&postcount=452) CaerieD says this:

Oh...dear. I'm not really sure what I think about the rush against Projammer. It seems a bit out of left field, which makes me think scum, but NAF1138's points seem solid. The vote just seems so sudden.

I'm hoping there's going to be some defense from Projammer and more explanation from those casting votes in that direction. After that, I'm a bit suspicious of those three.
And in post 461 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8493151&postcount=461) dnooman says this:

percypercy has only voted for people that other people have voted for, plus there is next to nothing in his/her posts.

The Projammerwagon needs to stop and be inspected IMO.
So there were a few people who thought the Projammer bandwagon was suspicious and needed to be stopped. We aren’t sure if some of them might be scum, though, trying to halt it before it started. Assuming they were all town for a moment, it might have given the Mafia players pause. I don’t know.

I do keep having to remember that the Mafia wasn’t able to talk and give each other advice before day 1, so each of them was flying blind about what the others were going to do. If Projammer is scum I find it hard to believe that when Lightnin’ was suddenly losing votes that at least one of them wouldn’t have picked the Projammer bandwagon to jump onto, if only to spread out the votes a little and hope to convince other townies to join them.

This is why I think option a, that Projammer is scum, is the most likely, and the Lightnin’ and percypercy bandwagons were just “anyone but Projammer” bandwagons of opportunity.

To refresh everyone’s memory of my original suspicion of Projammer I outlined it in post 443 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8492458&postcount=443). NAF1138’s voicing of the same suspicions is the next post.

The way yesterday ended has only strengthened my suspicion of Projammer.

Vote Projammer.

[Projammer]

I would not want to be Projammer right now. The legacy left by both of our dearly departed townies does not bode well for him.

At this point, I trust in the judgment of the dead more than the judgement of the living. I might be inclined to be looking at dnooman right now if it weren't for the vague suspicions that I have for the people who are in turn suspicious of him.

Vote Projammer.

Color removed.

And your grabbing at a flimsy straw as an excuse to vote for me earns you an FOS ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies. If this day ends badly and I am lynched, this will come back to bite you.

Percy getting killed was just an unfortunate circumstance of her posting. Or lack thereof. And NAF was the only reasonable target the first night considerering his skill and experience. That both of them had voted for me is a two birds with one stone win for the mafia. They only have to make slight nudges to convince the town to take out another one of their own.

[dnooman]

nesta's last post made a whole lot of sense to me. Taking that into account, plus the people that have voted for both Lightnin' and Projammer I think I'm more comfortable being in the company of those voting for Projammer.

unvote Lightnin' I'll wait to see if I feel like making an official vote for Projammer after hearing what he has to say in his defense.

[Kyrie Eleison]

Silent townies can only help the scum.Yeah, I see your point, a completely silent townie provides some camouflage for scum. Death to lurkers!

Um, you with the rope, staring at me, hold off a second...

Seriously, I had a hellishly busy day at work today, and although I've been able to glance at the thread throughout the day, I can't say that I've had an opportunity to pay enough attention to detail to form any substantial opinions. I promise to delve deeper tomorrow. In the meantime, though, I will offer one tidbit that I noticed earlier, but had yet to mention:

In post #333 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8489058&postcount=333) Blaster Master says:
... AND it's to the advantage of the mafia to kill any confirmed townie;Mafia don't need townies to be confirmed; they already know who all the townies are. While I can see a townie making this mistake, I imagine the thought would be completely foreign to any mafioso. This is either evidence, or too subtle a gambit for a mind as simple as mine. Anti-FOS Blaster Master.

[tirial]

As we have 4-6 mafia left in a group of 18, the odds are that in any group of players between 1 in 4.5 to 1 in 3 are mafia. The way I see it there's a group of six people who contain one, probably 2 or 3 mafia, based on voting patterns. Unfortunately I'm not sure how to narrow it down, as they all have reasons they should be for or against town, and there are no scum tells.

CaerieD
dnooman
Lemur866
Lightnin
Omi no Kami
Projammer

Any feedback would be useful because I am getting confused. (Scum tells would be prefered - anyone want to volunteer that they are mafia? :) )
And NAF was the only reasonable target the first night considerering his skill and experience. If their target pick was skill-based, wouldn't they also be going after Idle Thoughts? NAF may have been picked because most thought he was town and to a degree he was trusted.
Percy getting killed was just an unfortunate circumstance of her posting. Or lack thereof. Or total failure to defend herself when voted for over 2 days. I'll be honest and say that was when I started to think she had to be scum, since surely a townie would defend.
I say lynch the slackers, lynch 'em!
Not a good idea now - we ideally need to get scum, and failing that we need information. If you see a scum tell in a lurker's post, please sing out, but its more likely an active contributor will slip.
Mafia don't need townies to be confirmed; they already know who all the townies are. There are a lot of reasons why mafia would need to kill confirmed townies, and they aren't that subtle. As the mafia need the town voting pool to be as large as possible for a long as possible it makes sense to kill off anyone the town won't lynch.

(e.g. 5 towns 3 mafia 2 confirmed townie total 9
The town's target pool is 8 (mafia and unconfirmed town) the mafia's is 7 (town and confirmed)
If the mafia kill an unconfirmed town, the next day the town voting pool is 7 and the dead townie's votes are confirmed, giving extra info.
If they kill a confirmed town, the town voting pool stays at 8, and the town gains no new info as they already knew the victim was town. )

I'd be suspicious of someone who said the mafia didn't need to kill confirmed townies, but I'm not sure what BlasterMaster's post tells us about his alligience.
--
On preview - is anyone else having trouble with the boards being flaky at the moment?

[Millit the Frail]

I must say, I'm really impressed by all the scenario generation in this game. It seems really smart and helps crystallize things, and above all, I think it might help us avoid a Day 2 disaster. I think that the one lesson I've taken away from WWII is that we shouldn't faction each other off based on similarity of viewpoints at any one given time. We're really all playing alone, when it comes down to it, and none of us in the town (except, in some cases, the Masons and the Doctor) know whether the player we're agreeing with is Town or Mafia. The absolute worst thing that can happen is that the infighting gets so bad that the town is doing the Mafia's work for them.

Anyway, I've finally had some time to re-read some of the first day, and I'm adjusting my opinions on some players. Idle Thoughts voted for me at one time, but I still think he's town. Dnooman looks a lot less suspicious, partly based on the fact that he's offered up random good advice too many times. Fluiddruid, whom I FOSed (or just generally suspected) earlier, remains a bit shady. Lemur866 looks more trustworthy but doesn't suspect Lightnin' (who is my pet Mafia suspect). Nesta makes a great argument about Projammer that at the same time makes me look bad. But in all honesty, I voted for someone, not against another. "Anyone but Projammer," you say? Not my bandwagon.

Vote Projammer.

I can wait another day for Lightnin'. :)

[Millit the Frail]

Tirial, I just read your post just above mine, and I realized I forgot to say that I was wondering the same thing about Idle Thoughts. I'm actually more and more convinced that NAF's downfall was only part past-game experience and that his downfall had more to do with his posts in this particular game. It would be really easy for Mafia to dismiss his assassination as fear of a more experienced player and to brush off his actual contributions, wouldn't it? Plausible deniability. I keep coming back to it. I'm going to scan his posts as soon as I have the time and try to deduce something.

Also, yes, the boards have been squirrely tonight. Just when I finally get some blasted time to post, too!

[Kyrie Eleison]

There are a lot of reasons why mafia would need to kill confirmed townies, and they aren't that subtle. As the mafia need the town voting pool to be as large as possible for a long as possible it makes sense to kill off anyone the town won't lynch.Damn you for being all reasonable and stuff, not to mention correct. I had interpreted Blaster Master's "confirmed townie" to mean confirmed from the mob's perspective, not from the town's perspective. Crap, I feel foolish now -- that was just plain ol' dumb.
On preview - is anyone else having trouble with the boards being flaky at the moment?Yeah, I had a bit of that myself. The server seemed a bit slow when I was checking my links to make sure that I hadn't screwed them up.

[Blaster Master]

Blaster Master - Ah, yes. The one who argued so eloquently for the lynching of percypercy. The one whose playing style has altered dramatically in this game and yet no one but me has seemed to really notice. Last time around, Blaster was voicing suspicions all over the place and very aggressive. Last time, he had a pro-town power role. This time around he's voicing far fewer suspicions and when he finally does go on the aggressive...it's against a Citizen. Think about it.

Huh? Your suspicion of me makes just about zero sense. I'm not being aggressive? How many people did I FOS yesterday? Off the top of my head, at least three. Is it not aggressive because I didn't FOS the other main vote getters?

Has my playing style changed THAT much? You seem to be the only one pointing it out, which leads me to one conclusion: nope. The only thing I can think that's changed about me is my post count, and that is primarily due to an increase in IRL obligations (being end of semester, sudden increase in work responsibilities, and all).

I find it odd that you're accusing me of the same thing you accused Omi of doing to you; that is misrepresenting your posts. What I did in fact agree with him on (that I admittedly wasn't very clear on by merely saying "I noticed that too"), was that I noticed a change in YOUR pattern. I thought your change in pattern was due to you learning from your mistakes; but I've changed my appraisal. I think you're trying to use me as a scapegoat for your percypercy vote yesterday. I think you waited to switch pending a reasoned argument for the bandwagon so you could finally jump on an ensure a townie lynch, and now that you're caught red-handed, you're doing your darndest to shrug off the blame.

Similarly, I think you voted Omi because you thought it was a safe vote because he either wouldn't get lynched or was town (or both). That means that either Lightnin' or Projammer are also mafia along with you. Since I'm inclined to believe Lightnin' was just an over-defensive townie, and this is just further circumstantial evidence on the building Projammer wagon and it looks like he's the most likely lynchee today anyway, I'm going to go ahead and put my vote where I think is the most likely scum,Lynch CaerieD, and give a nice big foamy FOS Projammer to your compatriot.

[tirial]

WARNING: Post contains basic musings not detailed analysis.

Why did IdleThoughts play up his experience knowing it would make him a target?
Post 262 Rachm Qoch asks the same question, and it is answered with Post 264 Idle Thoughts says if it happen he was getting "too close with my suspicions" and
[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]At least getting killed off first is flattering in the regard that the scum probably see you as a threat.[QUOTE]
Assuming Idle Thoughts is right that would indicate NAF1138 was seen as a threat and probably close with a guess, which means we need to look at Naf's posts more closely. Looking at the current post counts, despite being dead on first day, NAF was (and still is) the most prolific player. (56 posts at current time). This makes running through his posts a very big job.

However, the least prolific are percypercy (13, dead, town), Kyrie Eleison (15), Rachm Qoch (17) CaerieD (18) and Millit the Frail (19).

There is one thing I was wondering about - I don't know about other townies, but I couldn't stay away from the thread overnight just to see what was happening and if the day had started (then I missed it :smack: ). Is it fair to say that anyone who wasn't that active overnight may be slightly suspicious, unless they stated they would be away from the boards?

[CaerieD]

Mafia don't need townies to be confirmed; they already know who all the townies are. While I can see a townie making this mistake, I imagine the thought would be completely foreign to any mafioso. This is either evidence, or too subtle a gambit for a mind as simple as mine. Anti-FOS Blaster Master.

If I'm reading that correctly, Blaster Master is saying that Mafia want to kill confirmed townies, not that they don't know who the townies are. The point is to take out anyone other townies can be sure of, because the more confirmed townies there are, the easier it is to figure out who the scum are. If nobody knows who anyone else is, it's easier to lead a bandwagon against town. That's not a mistake. That's simply understanding how scum would play the game.

Similarly, I think you voted Omi because you thought it was a safe vote because he either wouldn't get lynched or was town (or both). That means that either Lightnin' or Projammer are also mafia along with you. Since I'm inclined to believe Lightnin' was just an over-defensive townie, and this is just further circumstantial evidence on the building Projammer wagon and it looks like he's the most likely lynchee today anyway, I'm going to go ahead and put my vote where I think is the most likely scum,Lynch CaerieD, and give a nice big foamy FOS Projammer to your compatriot.

You go right ahead and do that, but I heartily recommend that everyone not make the same mistake they did in the last game and assume that my role in the game is any reflection on anyone else. If Projammer somehow makes it through this day alive and I die, don't assume he's town just because it's finally confirmed that I am. I've got no alliance going on there and even if I did, as town, I don't know anyone else's role. It's meaningless.

In fact, since so many people seem concerned with how I've voted and whether or not it was an attempt to protect those two--which it wasn't--how's this: I vote Projammer. But he'll probably turn up town and now you can claim I was on the bandwagon of two townies, right?

[CaerieD]

Okay, after typing up my last post I started thinking and I figured I'd better throw this out now before things steam too far ahead.

FOSing the people who are posting the least is a bad idea, people. When you average out everyone in the thread there are always going to be people posting less than other people. Lurkers are a problem. Nineteen posts when we're only on Day 2? That's not a lurker. There are people who will post a lot and push the game fast and there are people who want to take it a bit slower, but neither group is necessarily scum. Chop off the three with the lowest post counts and then there are a new group of three at the bottom. It's an endless supply for the Mafia, and all they have to do is rile the townies up by chanting "death to lurkers!" when, in fact, nobody is lurking.

tirial - Your post is what really got me thinking on this topic and you're rising rapidly in my scumdar now. People who weren't active at night might be scum? That makes no sense. I was refreshing the page anxiously, but felt no need to make up roleplaying posts about what I was drinking or keep everyone updated on how often I was refreshing. If anything, I'd say scum would be more likely to be active during the night. They're more engaged in the game than the rest of us at that point.

[Gadarene]

Updated Vote Count

5 -- Projammer (SnakesCatLady, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, CaerieD)
1 -- Lightnin' (Projammer)
1 -- dnooman (Lightnin')
1 -- CaerieD (Blaster Master)

[tirial]

BTW, looking back over the posts, there's an interesting contradiction in two posts very close together by one member - not a retraction, a contradiction. Would that be a scum indicator?

I'm just curious because everytime I ask about ways we can look for scum, possible scum tells, and whether anyone thinks they are worthwhile some people start getting defensive.

[Rachm Qoch]

Okay, after typing up my last post I started thinking and I figured I'd better throw this out now before things steam too far ahead.

FOSing the people who are posting the least is a bad idea, people. When you average out everyone in the thread there are always going to be people posting less than other people. Lurkers are a problem. Nineteen posts when we're only on Day 2? That's not a lurker. There are people who will post a lot and push the game fast and there are people who want to take it a bit slower, but neither group is necessarily scum. Chop off the three with the lowest post counts and then there are a new group of three at the bottom. It's an endless supply for the Mafia, and all they have to do is rile the townies up by chanting "death to lurkers!" when, in fact, nobody is lurking.

tirial - Your post is what really got me thinking on this topic and you're rising rapidly in my scumdar now. People who weren't active at night might be scum? That makes no sense. I was refreshing the page anxiously, but felt no need to make up roleplaying posts about what I was drinking or keep everyone updated on how often I was refreshing. If anything, I'd say scum would be more likely to be active during the night. They're more engaged in the game than the rest of us at that point.
What she said.

Rachm Qoch ...meeting the day's fluff quota...

[Rachm Qoch]

Updated Vote Count

5 -- Projammer (SnakesCatLady, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, CaerieD)
1 -- Lightnin' (Projammer)
1 -- dnooman (Lightnin')
1 -- CaerieD (Blaster Master)
Does anybody else notice an erie parallel with day one? We've still got more than a whole day to go, and it looks like Projammer is already the Lightnin' of Day Two. percypercy's guilt only became evident right before sunset -- the question is, who will the votes shift to at the last minute? Who's the real target?

[fluiddruid]

I have a feeling that Projammer won't escape the noose this time. I'm on the fence as I don't know if this bandwagon is bringing people out of the woodwork enough; a round where everyone, basically, votes for the same person tells us little. On the flip side I'm not wholly in disagreement with the arguments against Projammer. I just think we need more discussion.

In the meantime, vote Kyrie Eleison for being the low poster (and based on my earlier suspicions of him).

[nesta]

BTW, looking back over the posts, there's an interesting contradiction in two posts very close together by one member - not a retraction, a contradiction. Would that be a scum indicator?

I'm just curious because everytime I ask about ways we can look for scum, possible scum tells, and whether anyone thinks they are worthwhile some people start getting defensive.

If you think it's an important contradiction then yes, please point it out. Contradictions are an important scum tell, depending on what they are.

[tirial]

Does anybody else notice an erie parallel with day one? We've still got more than a whole day to go, and it looks like Projammer is already the Lightnin' of Day Two.Yep, duly noticed.

percypercy's guilt only became evident right before sunset -- the question is, who will the votes shift to at the last minute?Two questions here: 1) guilt? percypercy was a townie who didn't post to defend themselves, that doesn't make her guilty of anything. It makes her lynching a mistake or a deliberate bandwagon - I think the latter.
2) presumably, the votes will shift to whoever the town chooses as we get more evidence. The problem is its easy to make a case and defend it, but unless we get a lot of posters looking at things from different POVs we don't get enough info to make a good decision.

Who's the real target?Well, if you are town, presumably the mafia.

Unfortunately I have 5-6 equally likely suspects and I can make a case for any of them being mafia - whether its the correct case is the problem. Almost everything I've got so far is an indicator, or circumstantial.

[Millit the Frail]

If you think it's an important contradiction then yes, please point it out. Contradictions are an important scum tell, depending on what they are.

Yeah, point it out. If it's something, it's something, but if not, maybe the poster can explain him or herself. It could just be a townie getting confused and changing their mind all over the place, but it could also be scum.

So yeah, as for noticing the similarities between Day 1 and Day 2: We want to do the right thing this time and lynch "Lightnin'" instead of switching over to "percypercy." Am I right? If the votes start suddenly moving from Projammer to someone else, we are liable to lynch a townie again. Am I understanding you correctly? Because that's what it means to me.

And I'm with CaerieD on the lurker thing. Lurkers are a scapegoat. And there isn't much lurking going on in this game anyway.

[DiggitCamara]

If you think it's an important contradiction then yes, please point it out. Contradictions are an important scum tell, depending on what they are.
I know I'm not convincing anyone but myself, but, since you've already brought up the "Contradictions are an important scum tell"-meme, let's look at two posts from dnooman:

post #243: "We should only refer to ourselves as town, never anything more specific unless absolutely necessary. We don't need to narrow down the possible pool of power roles for the Mafia."
post #495:"Bloody hell. The thought that Lightnin' might be a mason occurred to me. If he is, and the other masons were those that were defending him, we're in deep shit."

So: to justify the crucial vote swing against percypercy, he contradicted his earlier post by guessing that Lightnin' is a mason.

There are other posts that just serve to increase my suspicions against him, like for instance:

#401: while keeping his vote against Lightnin' he calms him down (at the time, Lightnin' was freaking out and speaking about not enjoying the game)


And, finally, post #643. In it he gives the masons "advice" to vote at least one tima against each other to delay identification by scum. However scum could read it as "vote at least once against scum to delay identification by town"...

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Does anybody else notice an erie parallel with day one? We've still got more than a whole day to go, and it looks like Projammer is already the Lightnin' of Day Two. percypercy's guilt only became evident right before sunset -- the question is, who will the votes shift to at the last minute? Who's the real target?

I keep coming back to this post. I see only one similar aspect to the current vote count compared to yester-game-day's early counts, and that similarity is simply an early bandwagon. I have not picked up on any other situational similarities between Lightnin' and Projammer, and the attempt to correlate them makes me :dubious:. Bandwagons happen a lot, at many different times of the day. With a sample size of 2, I simply cannot swallow such a correlation with any confidence.

As for who my target is, that would be the player I have voted for.

[DiggitCamara]

(btw: vote dnooman)

[CaerieD]

I know I'm not convincing anyone but myself, but, since you've already brought up the "Contradictions are an important scum tell"-meme, let's look at two posts from dnooman:

post #243: "We should only refer to ourselves as town, never anything more specific unless absolutely necessary. We don't need to narrow down the possible pool of power roles for the Mafia."
post #495:"Bloody hell. The thought that Lightnin' might be a mason occurred to me. If he is, and the other masons were those that were defending him, we're in deep shit."

So: to justify the crucial vote swing against percypercy, he contradicted his earlier post by guessing that Lightnin' is a mason.

There are other posts that just serve to increase my suspicions against him, like for instance:

#401: while keeping his vote against Lightnin' he calms him down (at the time, Lightnin' was freaking out and speaking about not enjoying the game)


And, finally, post #643. In it he gives the masons "advice" to vote at least one tima against each other to delay identification by scum. However scum could read it as "vote at least once against scum to delay identification by town"...

And, it should be noted, in post #645 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8504906&postcount=654) after dnooman gave that advice Lightnin' voted for...dnooman! If we assume Lightnin' was taking dnooman's advice, then we have two possibilities here:

1. They're both scum and dnooman was giving his teammate a hint during the day when they can't speak freely.
2. They're both Masons.

Or, it's simply a coincidence and one or both are town. But it's a pretty striking coincidence, isn't it?

[Lemur866]

Note that the trouble I'm having is that I've got a couple of people who I'm NOT suspicious of, but none of the other people not on that list stand out. But, I'm pretty sure that at least one scum has voted for Projammer. I'm not feeling the Projammer scum vibe. He's no more suspicious to me than any of you all. So, on the theory that at least one scum has hopped on Projammer, that gives me a short list: SnakesCatLady, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, CaerieD.

I voted for CaerieD first round, but not out of any deep conviction, just as a prod to get her to be more active. I agree that the definition of a lurker isn't the person who posted least, since that means we'll always have a lurkingest player, no matter how much people contribute. And raw numbers of posts don't mean much either.

I agree that most people are contributing. Except...SnakesCatLady. It's not that she doesn't post, it's that she doesn't contribute. Of course there's not much to contribute, but wild speculation is all we have now. And she's voting with the herd for Projammer while none of the other suspects on the list are very suspicious.

And since we're getting down to it and it would be dishonorable to avoid voting, I'm going to vote SnakesCatLady.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

[gameface off]
Does anyone else think that choice exchanges from this game (or either of the other two) would be awesome dialog for Stick Figure Theater?
[gameface on]

[SnakesCatLady]

Just because I have cast a vote doesn't mean I am not paying attention. I have a very strong feeling that Projammer is scum. The fact that others have voted for him tells me that others feel the same way. If people waited until dusk to vote, it might make me wonder why they were jumping on the "bandwagon" so late.

This question may make me look like scum, but I hope it will be taken in the spirit in which it is asked; lack of knowledge of the strategy of the game. If a player about to go under the noose claims Mason, is it in the best interests of the Masons for one of them to defend him? Or would that depend on how far along the game is? I can see that Masons would not want a fellow Mason lynched, but defending him would out him as definitely town (therefore an easy fit for concrete shoes) and would also out the defending player as town (if he/she is believed) and and make it more likely for the defender to get a one way trip to the bottom of the bay with no scuba gear. (Does this town have a bay?)

[Gadarene]

Because I'm around and I feel like it:

Updated Vote Count

5 -- Projammer (SnakesCatLady, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, CaerieD)
2 -- dnooman (Lightnin', DiggitCamara)
1 -- Lightnin' (Projammer)
1 -- CaerieD (Blaster Master)
1 -- Kyrie Eleison (fluiddruid)
1 -- SnakesCatLady (Lemur866)

[Lightnin']

1. They're both scum and dnooman was giving his teammate a hint during the day when they can't speak freely.
2. They're both Masons.

Or, it's simply a coincidence and one or both are town. But it's a pretty striking coincidence, isn't it?

Of course, that's discounting the fact that I had, a few posts earlier, listed him among the three I thought had suspicious bandwagon affinities. The fact that he then made the first vote of the day, and it was against me (who is arguably the easiest target) convinced me that he was the scummiest.

I'm curious, though- you're very willing to finger me, but not dnooman... since as near as I can tell, none of your posited scenarios would have him be Mafia. Any particular reason?

[CaerieD]

All right, after DiggitCamara's post, I did a search of every instance of dnooman's name in the thread, just to get a feel for what else has been said. #655 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8504936&postcount=655) really stood out to me. Hal Briston made some pretty good observations here that I completely missed the first time through. We've got questions of interest to scum just before night falls and a seeming awareness of how many scum there are.

If this is the case and dnooman turns up Mafia, then I firmly suggest Lightnin' goes next, since it does look like they were trying to communicate strategy to one another during the day. When the day started, I'd been feeling that Projammer was a better target, but looking at it this way I feel like it'd be foolish to turn a blind eye on dnooman. If they're Masons trying to work together, fine, they can role claim we'll see if anyone else backs them up, but the thought that they're just vanilla townies is seeming less and less likely.

So, for now I'm going to unvote Projammer, though my FOS remains in place, and vote dnooman.

[DiggitCamara]

This question may make me look like scum, but I hope it will be taken in the spirit in which it is asked; lack of knowledge of the strategy of the game. If a player about to go under the noose claims Mason, is it in the best interests of the Masons for one of them to defend him? Or would that depend on how far along the game is? I can see that Masons would not want a fellow Mason lynched, but defending him would out him as definitely town (therefore an easy fit for concrete shoes) and would also out the defending player as town (if he/she is believed) and and make it more likely for the defender to get a one way trip to the bottom of the bay with no scuba gear. (Does this town have a bay?)
My take on this:

1. Mason about to be lynched. Should definitely claim (after all, it's the loss of a towny)
2. If scum counterclaims, it's their loss: at this point of the game any one-to-one exchange would benefit town. No other mason should confirm (at this stage of the game).

If, by mistake, a mason IS lynched in this scenario, the scum would be easily identifiable and should be lynched on the next day. Even better, if the scum start the scenario, and for some reason a second scum decides to counterclaim the mason's claim, two mafia would be identified.

Of course, all this changes, depending on how far the game has gotten.

[Lemur866]

Just because I have cast a vote doesn't mean I am not paying attention. I have a very strong feeling that Projammer is scum. The fact that others have voted for him tells me that others feel the same way. If people waited until dusk to vote, it might make me wonder why they were jumping on the "bandwagon" so late.

This question may make me look like scum, but I hope it will be taken in the spirit in which it is asked; lack of knowledge of the strategy of the game. If a player about to go under the noose claims Mason, is it in the best interests of the Masons for one of them to defend him? Or would that depend on how far along the game is? I can see that Masons would not want a fellow Mason lynched, but defending him would out him as definitely town (therefore an easy fit for concrete shoes) and would also out the defending player as town (if he/she is believed) and and make it more likely for the defender to get a one way trip to the bottom of the bay with no scuba gear. (Does this town have a bay?)

Well, the way it worked in Werewolf I, somebody going to the gallows claimed mason. None of the other masons openly defended him, but no one challenged him. And that was taken as evidence that he was either scum or mason. Since if he was scum the real masons could all band together and vote against him, without revealing mason status, the fact that his mason status was unchallenged was taken as evidence that he really was mason.

So, masons don't need to openly defend a mason claim, or openly vouch for another mason by claiming mason status too. The absence of denounciations against the mason claimer is a pretty good indication that they're telling the truth.

[CaerieD]

Missed your response on preview, Lightnin'. I do think dnooman is Mafia, as evidenced by my vote just now. It's possible he isn't, of course, since we won't know anything for sure until the player is out of the game, but I'm comfortable with my vote for the moment.

[SnakesCatLady]

I agree that most people are contributing. Except...SnakesCatLady. It's not that she doesn't post, it's that she doesn't contribute. Of course there's not much to contribute, but wild speculation is all we have now. And she's voting with the herd for Projammer while none of the other suspects on the list are very suspicious.

And since we're getting down to it and it would be dishonorable to avoid voting, I'm going to vote SnakesCatLady.

(snipped and color removed)

If I am not mistaken, I was the first to vote for Projammer today (game day), and I listed my reasons for doing so. So I can hardly be seen as "voting with the herd".

I am also suspicious of some others; I am less suspicious of Lightnin' than I once was but he has not completely cleared my scumdar. dnooman and fluiddruid are also on my list (consults notes) as are you, Lemur866. If it turns out Lightnin' is scum, you are next on my list to lynch due to your defense of him in post 486.

I'm sure that lack of contribution may be seen as a scum tell, but since I am new to the game and haven't had a lot to contribute I haven't seen the point in posting a lot. As I get ideas, I post them.

[Lemur866]

I don't want to harp and harp on the lynch lurkers thing. It's just one thing to consider, that scum have more to gain by lurking than town.

I agree that I'm pretty curious about what's behind door #Lightning and door #dnooman. When one of them bites it that's going to release a lot of information. But unfortunately my suspicion is that the information revealed will be that both are town, and if one is mafia, it's more likely to be Lightning that dnooman, and I just can't see how both could be mafia, their squabble is way to clumsy. Since IMHO the most likely answer is that both are town I can't vote for either of them, curious though I am.

[Lemur866]

By the way, I agree that if Lighting turns out to be mafia, I'm going to look like a big jerk.

[Rachm Qoch]

I keep coming back to this post. I see only one similar aspect to the current vote count compared to yester-game-day's early counts, and that similarity is simply an early bandwagon. I have not picked up on any other situational similarities between Lightnin' and Projammer, and the attempt to correlate them makes me :dubious:. Bandwagons happen a lot, at many different times of the day. With a sample size of 2, I simply cannot swallow such a correlation with any confidence.

As for who my target is, that would be the player I have voted for.
Well, we'll find out soon enough if things play out the same way.
I've got my suspicions, but I can't say he's probably Mafia and I can't say he's probably town. From my perspective he's not such a slam-dunk that half the votes should be on him, so I'm betting there's some scum in the mix. If a sizable portion of Projammer's votes happen to switch off resulting in another town lynch, that's something we should look at.

[Blaster Master]

And, it should be noted, in post #645 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8504906&postcount=654) after dnooman gave that advice Lightnin' voted for...dnooman! If we assume Lightnin' was taking dnooman's advice, then we have two possibilities here:

1. They're both scum and dnooman was giving his teammate a hint during the day when they can't speak freely.
2. They're both Masons.

Or, it's simply a coincidence and one or both are town. But it's a pretty striking coincidence, isn't it?

I think your second option is impossible, that is, I think between the two, the only one that could be a mason is Lightnin', and even that is slim. Assuming that dnooman knows from his experience that defending a fellow mason is silly because it outs TWO masons, then if he is a mason, he either would have known Lightnin' was and let him claim, or he would have known that he was not, and that would have made his reasoning for changing his vote...odd.

I'm not inclined to believe Lightnin' is a mason either because I'm thinking he was getting to the point where he would have had to have devulged all if he was going to save his skin, except that dnooman did it for him. Thus, I'm inclined to believe, based on how the events unfolded, that both are non-mason townies, but one or both being scum is still possible. That said, if either is scum, because of dnooman's odd move, and for previously stated reasons with regards to Lightnin', I'm more inclined to believe if there is scumminess in there, it is with the first rather than the latter.

[Rachm Qoch]

percypercy's guilt only became evident right before sunset -- the question is, who will the votes shift to at the last minute?
Two questions here: 1) guilt? percypercy was a townie who didn't post to defend themselves, that doesn't make her guilty of anything. It makes her lynching a mistake or a deliberate bandwagon - I think the latter.
2) presumably, the votes will shift to whoever the town chooses as we get more evidence. The problem is its easy to make a case and defend it, but unless we get a lot of posters looking at things from different POVs we don't get enough info to make a good decision.

I think we're saying the same thing -- it seems like a deliberate wagon sparked at the last moment, before reason could prevail. Maybe they figured that if they cemented percypercy's supposed "guilt" of being "Mafia" shortly before the vote count, as a lurker she wouldn't be back in time to defend herself.

[SnakesCatLady]

I don't have time to look it up right now - real life calls, damn it - but has anyone noted who the middle to last people to vote for percypercy were? My notes aren't figured in such a way as to make it easy to tell. If no one has it already I will work on it when I get home tonight.

[tirial]

I think we're saying the same thing -- it seems like a deliberate wagon sparked at the last moment, before reason could prevail. Maybe they figured that if they cemented percypercy's supposed "guilt" of being "Mafia" shortly before the vote count, as a lurker she wouldn't be back in time to defend herself.
I said much the same in Post 638 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8503987&postcount=638).
On the other hand, percypercy had two days to defend Diggit's vote and didn't, and a day and a half to defend against mine, and didn't. So even with twelve hours (approx) for her to defend against a bandwagon, later voters could be fairly certain that she wouldn't defend herself, so the mafia a) knew she was town and b) knew from her previous behaviour she probably wouldn't defend. An ideal target to take the pressure off one of your own.
Unfortunately, that again circles back to the later voters for percypercy.
has anyone noted who the middle to last people to vote for percypercy were?
SnakescatLady I did a breakdown of the votes for percypercy in Post 638 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8503987&postcount=638), including times of votes, if that's any use. In summary its Diggit and me, then a break, then fluiddruid, dnooman, Blastermaster and CaerieD.

[Blaster Master]

I think we're saying the same thing -- it seems like a deliberate wagon sparked at the last moment, before reason could prevail. Maybe they figured that if they cemented percypercy's supposed "guilt" of being "Mafia" shortly before the vote count, as a lurker she wouldn't be back in time to defend herself.

Well, here's hoping that we can learn from that, and get a defense/role-claim out of the leading vote getter with, say, 24 hours to go so we don't end up in the same situation. That is, if people may be convinced to change their votes, they get enough time to do it and the second person also gets a chance to respond.

IIRC, the day ends Saturday evening, so, I'm hoping that, assuming Projammer is still the leading vote getter, in the interest of preventing a last minute panic re-vote, he should consider doing so tomorrow evening at the latest.

[CaerieD]

I think your second option is impossible, that is, I think between the two, the only one that could be a mason is Lightnin', and even that is slim. Assuming that dnooman knows from his experience that defending a fellow mason is silly because it outs TWO masons, then if he is a mason, he either would have known Lightnin' was and let him claim, or he would have known that he was not, and that would have made his reasoning for changing his vote...odd.

I'm not inclined to believe Lightnin' is a mason either because I'm thinking he was getting to the point where he would have had to have devulged all if he was going to save his skin, except that dnooman did it for him. Thus, I'm inclined to believe, based on how the events unfolded, that both are non-mason townies, but one or both being scum is still possible. That said, if either is scum, because of dnooman's odd move, and for previously stated reasons with regards to Lightnin', I'm more inclined to believe if there is scumminess in there, it is with the first rather than the latter.

True, it's not very likely that either one is a Mason, but it is one potential interpretation so I figured I'd include it as a possibility.

Looking over posting history and everything else, I'm far more comfortable voting for dnooman than Lightnin' at this point. I feel that there's enough evidence there to back it up, too, as illustrated in the previous posts. Obviously, you don't feel that the evidence is as strong as I do, but dnooman doesn't have that many votes at this point and plenty of time to come back with a defense. If the defense isn't convincing, my vote stands.

[dnooman]

I know I'm not convincing anyone but myself, but, since you've already brought up the "Contradictions are an important scum tell"-meme, let's look at two posts from dnooman:

post #243: "We should only refer to ourselves as town, never anything more specific unless absolutely necessary. We don't need to narrow down the possible pool of power roles for the Mafia."
post #495:"Bloody hell. The thought that Lightnin' might be a mason occurred to me. If he is, and the other masons were those that were defending him, we're in deep shit."

So: to justify the crucial vote swing against percypercy, he contradicted his earlier post by guessing that Lightnin' is a mason.

This was not a contradiction, you just misread my meaning. I was referring to Hal Briston's "I'm just a plain townie" claim. Nobody should claim vanilla town unless they're about to swing and it's true. Obviously power roles should not lie about being plain town, and the actual plain town should not let the Mafia know that they are vanilla. The Mafia wants to kill power roles you see. I was referring to people talking about their own roles.

My thought that Lightnin' could be a mason was legitimate, although in retrospect I think that was a possibly foolish conclusion.

It is not a good idea for townies to try to out power roles, I wasn't trying to out anyone, and it appears that so far no one has been outed. However, if did not reveal my reason for changing my vote I would be either a) being secretive and therefore not helpful, or b) I would have had to lie, which is never a good idea for town to do.

This is by no means my full disclosure defense, I'll save that for when and if I have a date with the gallows . The way I see it now, the more Mafia that pile on my wagon the better. I've gotten a pretty good reaction from my posts, and I think that will prove to be enlightening when I'm dead.

[tirial]

Ok, I've looked at Post 655 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8504936&postcount=655) and I don't see where dnooman says he knows how many scum there are?

Looking at Post 608 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8503219&postcount=608), dnooman only actually says he knows how many people weren't voted for (four). Basic logic then indicates to anyone that there is a high chance mafia member(s) were voted for.

1) 4 players weren't voted for, so 16 were.
2) It was suggested early on that there were between 4-6 mafia players (I'll need to check who said this)
3) If there were 5 or more mafia players at least one must have been voted for.
4) If one of the four who weren't voted for was a mason, then (if there are 4 or more mafia), the masons know that at least one mafia was voted for.

I ran through the numbers in Post 661 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8505569&postcount=661) and 662 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8505609&postcount=662) - admittedly while taking dnooman to task for asking about masons, because I didn't see their relevance to this.

On the other hand, Hal Briston or CaerieD you've based votes on Post 655, so if you can point out what I missed, I'd probably be looking a lot harder at dnooman.

The only thing is I don't think dnooman is a mason - he's asked too many "If's" about them.

[Lemur866]

If dnooman's a mason there's gonna be some serious WTFs out of me. I can't imagine he's a mason given his mason-referencing statements. Scum, maybe, but not mason.

[dnooman]

Why is no one questioning the start of the percy bandwagon?

Wasn't it DiggitCamara that started it? He's really gung ho about trying to pin her lynching on me.

If I had to choose between him being a misguided townie and a Mafioso trying to get me lynched, at this point I'd have to choose the latter.

tirial seems to have said what I meant about the number of Mafia voted for better than I did. Maybe that was too obvious a point for me to have brought up.

I can certainly see why people would see some of my posts as being questionable and possibly reckless, but I doubt that too many townies think that I'm working for the other side.

[DiggitCamara]

Why is no one questioning the start of the percy bandwagon?

Wasn't it DiggitCamara that started it? He's really gung ho about trying to pin her lynching on me.



Actually, that's quite legitimate.

A couple of caveats:

1. I was on the bandwagon, that much is true. However, mine was the first vote. You could as well ask about Kyrie Eleison's bandwagon during this day, when throughout the day just fluiddruid voted for him/her. Kindly direct your attention to post #477 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8494063&postcount=477) . Gadarene lists 9 different "bandwagons" (hey, each of them started with one vote :D )
2. In post 489 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8494670&postcount=489) I listed percypercy as my number 3 FOS. The reasoning behind that position was then (and is still) validated by more than one. Add to that my statement
Well, since it seems I won't be connecting again 'til after dawn
which held true, and you have my explanation why I didn't jump off.
3. Last, but not least, in post #433 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8491793&postcount=433) I laid out my reasons as to why I kept my vote against her.

Maybe I should have revoted before signing out for the weekend, however (mea culpa!) I thought fate Lightnin' was sealed.

And that's where you came in . (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8494500&postcount=488) .. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8495204&postcount=495)

[Hal Briston]

Ok, I've looked at Post 655 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8504936&postcount=655) and I don't see where dnooman says he knows how many scum there are?Thanks to your explaination, I now see that he did not let slip that he knows exactly how many scum there are. Thanks much for that -- I stand corrected.

I now see that his statement was much simpler -- either A) tirial, Blaster Master, Rachm Qoch and myself are the only mafia in the game, or B) a mafia member was voted for. The only non-scum that I know for certain is myself, but even if that were not the case, I'd call it very long odds that no scum whatsoever would get even a temporary vote on any day. Not much to gleen off of this.
On the other hand, Hal Briston or CaerieD you've based votes on Post 655, so if you can point out what I missed, I'd probably be looking a lot harder at dnooman.I don't believe I've voted for dnooman previously. However, seeing as no one in this game has pinged my scumometer more than he has, I'm going to go ahead and change that now -- vote dnooman.

[Lightnin']

I'd just like to remind everyone- in about three hours, I'm going to be leaving the country. Okay, I'm really going to Canada, but hey- it's another country, right?

How sad is it that I've had a passport for three years now, and the first time I get to use it is when I go to Canada?

Anyway, I'm going to be incommunicado until Sunday evening. I won't even be able to look at the forums unless I can find a spare computer with a net connection- do they even have electricity up in Canada, yet? :)

[Hal Briston]

Fleeing the country? Geez...scum tell and a half...:)

[CaerieD]

tirial - I see what you mean. I misinterpreted dnooman's point there, reading it out of context with just that part quoted in Hal Briston's post. I'm not sure what to make of it now that I'm looking over it again in context, though. I still feel like dnooman has said some questionable things, but I'm less certain of his scumminess. Then again, I'm marginally more sure of dnooman's scumminess than Projammer's, so I suppose I'll let my vote stay where it is for now as I consider this further.

Lightnin' - We'll try not to lynch you for not posting while you're gone. ;)

[Lemur866]

This means Projammer and dnooman each have 4 votes, by my count. Neck and, er, neck.