Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler [Archive] - Page 4

nesta

04-26-2007, 10:49 PM

Ok, I've pretty much composed my final thread. Any questions that the town would like to have answered will be addressed, assuming I see them before the deadline.
The day isn't over quite yet. There are still plenty of people who could swing the lead back to the Projammer bandwagon. You're only down by one vote at the moment if I counted correctly.

I wonder why you haven't voted for Projammer yet? If you know you aren't scum surely you would rather see him swing than yourself, and your vote would tie it up. If you have a better target for us it's better to try to convince us now than when time is short.

That is, unless you are going to role-claim, which is the impression I get from your recent posts. Unless you plan on committing suicide by role-claiming scum, it would be better to try to get someone else lynched (that you believe are likely scum) than count on the role claim to save you. It's not last resort time, and role-claiming is a last resort.

The day has really slowed down, and I think you promising last-ditch posts is only going to contribute to this. We need more discussion. Sure, the battle lines have been drawn, and we are a town divided, but we still need discussion to give us more information to go on no matter how today’s lynching turns out.

I say out with it. If you have something you want to say then now is a better time than later. Hold off on the role-claim, though.

I can sympathize a little with your plight. If the Projammer bandwagon goes through and I'm right that he's scum, I think I've signed my death warrant by going after him like I have. I would be much more trusted by the town, and therefore a prime night-kill target. I plan on putting my cards on the table FOS-wise before the deadline hits, but I haven't had a chance to review the thread to verify my current suspicions. Even if you are the one lynched I might as well do so anyway on the chance that I don't wake up tomorrow.

I can't say I'm convinced you're town right now, but I've been leaning that way. I've seen some questionable things from you, but I also think your posts have added up more pro-town than deceitful. I hope your "final thread" will convince me (and some of those on your current bandwagon) that this is the case.

[On review I see that Rachm Qoch has voted for Projammer, so it's now a 5-5 tie.]

nesta

04-26-2007, 11:04 PM

Also, where has Projammer been? He hasn't posted in 24 hours or so. I was hoping for a defense from him by now.

Projammer, many of the points I made to dnooman apply to you as well. If you are town, defend yourself. If you are scum, well, then I guess just come out and admit it to ease the suspense.

Projammer

04-26-2007, 11:18 PM

Again. I don't have time for a full analysis, but I'm going to get a few notes off quickly. First off, I don't believe dnooman is mafia. Based mostly on his stated hesitancy to brand me as such. I know I'm town so offing either of us will pretty much seal the position of the other. I'm not going to beat the drum on Lightnin right now with him not here to speak in his own defense, but right now he is still highest on my list of players to send into that long goodnight. And like everyone else, there are others on radar to various degrees just based on feeling.

I'm going to print out the entire thread tomorrow and go through it to post my observations tomorrow night or Saturday morning well before the first call at the bar.

But for now, sending dnooman or myself to the gallows is only doing the work of the mafia for them.

Lemur866

04-26-2007, 11:42 PM

I don't see how dnooman could be planning a role claim, that would have to be argued over and analyzed and would take us over the deadline...all to no purpose. Rather he's preparing his last will and testament, sending it out at the last minute, and realizing that when (or if) he's revealed as town, we'll at least trust that his analysis is honest.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

04-26-2007, 11:48 PM

dnooman

04-26-2007, 11:54 PM

I find it very "interesting" that neither Projammer or dnooman are taking the opportunity to contribute to the potential undoing of the other. Interesting in a way that makes me not surprised that you're both tied for the hangman's noose, and interesting in the way that you're the same two folks I was pondering between for my vote back in post #690.
Well, if you think we're both scum you're at least half wrong. I have strong suspicions about Projammer but I am in no way certain about that. Why is everything that you post suspicious? You're not inexperienced.

Projammer

04-26-2007, 11:57 PM

And you're still the current holder of my FOS. Ponder that "tonight" while everyone is expressing their regret at having killed another townie.

Hmm. I can actually correct that since I've said I won't hammer LIghtnin while he's away.

Unvote Lightnin
Vote ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
FOS Lightnin

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

04-26-2007, 11:59 PM

Everything I post is suspicious? Or everything I post is suspicions?

Either way, isn't that how the game goes?

dnooman

04-27-2007, 12:01 AM

I find it very "interesting" that neither Projammer or dnooman are taking the opportunity to contribute to the potential undoing of the other. Interesting in a way that makes me not surprised that you're both tied for the hangman's noose, and interesting in the way that you're the same two folks I was pondering between for my vote back in post #690.
If Projammer turns up town, you look really scummy. You're looking for a fight with no good reason. Maybe you know that we're both town? Maybe Projammer is scum and you want scum-kill credit if he dies? Maybe you're pitting town against town in hopes of a win-win situation? Maybe the scum have picked up on this and are in turn framing you.

On preview, Projammer's behavior is starting to seem more reasonable to me ATM.

dnooman

04-27-2007, 12:12 AM

I'm good and ready to post my last defense, but at the moment it's too soon. I was ready to post my last post right after nesta made the post asking for me to come out. Then Projammer showed up. So did Cookies.

I feel sorry for the innocent townies that get killed as a result of my death, I feel no remorse for the slimy scum that get exposed due to my baiting them.

Lemur866

04-27-2007, 12:16 AM

Omi no Kami

04-27-2007, 01:22 AM

I just want to raise a query here... I've been beating the "Death to lurkers!" drum recently and that's going to keep me good and biased, but can I ask if it's a good idea to put the most scrutiny on people who've been participating heavily? I can't say I'm decided on Projammer but I don't think anybody has nailed down a good, hard scum tell.

Because of that, I'm kind of dubious about lynching him right off; if I remember correctly (and I don't have time to re-read the thread, I'm afraid :( ), he's been one of the more participate-y players... and that's going to give us a lot more dialogue to chew through and analyze, so it's obvious we'll be able to find something incriminating.

With that having been said, I want to ask why we aren't putting more scrutiny on the 'neutral' players? CaerieD's been a lot more vocal recently and I'm trusting her a bit more, but Rachm Qoch and SnakesCatLady both stand out in my mind as being fairly conservative players; they'll agree with current accusations, but I can't remember either of them ever making a logical attack on anyone outside of day 1 when Caerie and I got into that dustup.

That having been said, is there a valid reason for us to be focusing on the people who've written a lot for us to look at, and not the ones who've potentially been flying under the radar by swaying with the public opinion?

(that's why I haven't, and currently don't intend to, vote today: I haven't seen any really good evidence for scuminess from anyone, and since the day 1 bit I'm only going to vote if I have a good reason.)

Omi no Kami

04-27-2007, 01:24 AM

Oh! And for the record I'm thinking that Projammer is town (he's been too visible for a clever mobster), and I'm undecided on dnooman.

Omi no Kami

04-27-2007, 01:28 AM

Oh! And also for the record, I don't think my ideals quite match my wording: rather than "Lynch the lurkers," I'd like to say "Lynch the tactful". Goodness knows it's a valid strategy, and I'm probably the most guilty of reserving my opinions in this game, but I talk about my suspicions, and I think that's vastly more valuable than the people who simply agree with existing accusations.

Neutrality is an extremely valuable talent, but it's not particularly helpful in this kind of game. ^^

dnooman

04-27-2007, 02:00 AM

Kyrie Eleison

04-27-2007, 02:15 AM

After reviewing the entire thread three times, this whole Dnooman/Projammer situation leaves me feeling like we're deciding which townie to lynch.

Dnooman, you offered some good advice to Lightnin' in post #401 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8490001&postcount=401):If you are town, don't be worried about getting lynched. Be worried that if you are killed or lynched that your posts might not provide us with insight.And yet you were quick to agree with fluiddruid's reasoning (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8495183&postcount=493) that a percypercy vote was a good vote since she hadn't contributed much. Did it occur to you that you might be bringing about the very situation that you had warned Lightnin' about, namely, that we might wind up with a lynched townie whose posts wouldn't provide us with much insight?

Omi no Kami

04-27-2007, 02:25 AM

Damnit Omi, are you gonna make me have to change my threat table too?

"Lynch the tactful"?

I see that you're trying to make a point, possibly a good one, but I'm not getting it. Are you saying that we should lynch those that don't offer unique arguments and just vote the way that others do? That sort of thinking has it's place for sure, but without specific accusations it is very little to no help. If you are town, the town needs to hear your suspicions, especially because you could potentially be a night kill that yields little or no info for the town.

You bring up a good point. I'm not advocating a change in tactics, I'm just trying to highlight what I percieve to be a very real danger: paranoia can quickly turn into a town's worst enemy, causing extremely smart people to find extremely smart reasons to hang innocents. It's easiest to become paranoid with people who post a lot, since we all know that any small mistake can be interpreted (and logically argued) as a scum tell.

With that in mind, my big concern is that a few clever players have probably already noticed that town's main way of finding scum is by catching players who are trying to get people they know are innocent hung: bandwagoning, lying, obfuscating truths, twisting statements, all that good stuff. What I was trying to highlight with my posts is that the clever scum are going to figure out that the best way to hide is to stop accusing people, and start backing up other people's claims.

Now that is NOT to say we should hang the people who try to analyze accusations. Like everyone has mentioned before, information is the town's best friend. What I was trying to articulate is that it's essential for us to seek out people who are being careful not to have firm opinions, since I think they can be more dangerous that the scum who are skillful at manipulating lynch mobs.

Look at it this way: one of the really valuable things about townies that we lynch during the day is the arguments to lynch them: it's extremely helpful to see what arguments clinched the vote, so we can evaluate whether it was based on good evidence (someone in the town pulling a Winston, for instance ;) ), and as such an honest mistake, or whether someone was obviously pulling the strings to get this guy killed without a good reason.

The problem is, trying to get someone lynched without good evidence is a blaringly obvious scum tell. The reason I brought up the neutrality piece is because I percieve a real danger in scum who sit back, let a townie come up with an accusation, and go "Hey, that sounds logical!", trying to validate the initial accusation without doing any significant analysis of their own.

After all, everybody is going to see this game in a slightly different way, and the scum will see it in a significantly different way than the town... as such, I think the way in which a player analyzes the game can be extremely telling. If a player consistently abstains from doing serious thinking, and always resorts to sitting in the crowd and backing the lynch mob's faceman up, I think that player needs to be carefully scrutinized.

Does that make a little more sense?

dnooman

04-27-2007, 02:33 AM

I guess I think we should be seeing more people turn up out of the woodwork to defend dnooman or projammer if either were scum. The mafia HAVE to protect each other. Sure, if a mafia lynch is inevitable they'll join in. But with only 5 or so votes, and 4-6 mafia, a push from the mafia could easily get someone else swinging. I'd expect a lot more work from scum to try to derail an anti-mafia bandwagon. Both projammer and dnooman's bandwagons have drifted along without serious opposition.

I will say, any last minute flurry of activity against either one will be suspicious, anyone who shows up at the last minute to rescue dnooman/projammer and send projammer/dnooman to the gallows is likely a bad guy...if the lynch shows that we got the wrong person. Or persons.
I really have no idea where you're headed with this. You have suggested more than once that Lightnin' and myself are both town. It has become obvious enough IMO that I can now address it.

The Mafia do not have to protect each other. If anything a scum looks better if they have a confirmed scum vote to their name. I'm not Mafia, so there's no scheme going on there. If Projammer is Mafia, they'd be wise to just let him swing. Too much defending him would look suspicious, and a vote for scum makes one less likely to be scum in the eyes of the town.

Are you saying that if anyone reconsiders their vote that they're suspicious? That's ridiculous. At this point votes moved to, or made for, people who have almost no chance of being lynched should be suspect, they are empty votes. Votes made for the sake of making one, often just to obfuscate allegiances.

We're likely to see Mafia unvote in order to seem wise, and townies unvote in order to not kill a fellow townie.

The ones to cast the damning votes are likely to be either ballsy townies that trust their instincts (because they have no insider info) or ballsy Mafia looking to lynch a fellow Mafioso in order to look clean.

How great would that be for the Mafia to have us choosing between two townie lynches? They wouldn't even have to intervene in order to score a townie lynch.

If you're a townie, you need to think smart, not think the way that other people are thinking. You don't have to choose option A or B, you can choose C or nothing at all. Just keep in mind that the Mafia are trying to hide in plain sight.

dnooman

04-27-2007, 02:45 AM

After reviewing the entire thread three times, this whole Dnooman/Projammer situation leaves me feeling like we're deciding which townie to lynch.
Did it occur to you that you might be bringing about the very situation that you had warned Lightnin' about, namely, that we might wind up with a lynched townie whose posts wouldn't provide us with much insight?
Of course it did. She read the advice just like all the rest of us, she chose not to respond. It was getting close to nightfall and a decision needed to be made. As you have recognized in previous posts, silent townies can only help scum. Remember agreeing with that? I was hoping that we were lynching a quiet scum. Turns out I was wrong.

I was bringing about the same situation I had warned Lightnin' about? Where was everyone else's sage wisdom? I stand by my vote for percypercy and I always will. It was a more sensible vote at the time because we as townies had no information, she was not providing anything new. A vote for her was a better vote at the moment than anyone who had a scum "vibe". Logic people. It's not always pretty.

I'm sick of this persecution about my percypercy vote. Once this is all over you can all do your research and see that my vote was the right one based on precedence.

Also, Omi, your explanation makes much more sense now. Thank you.

Omi no Kami

04-27-2007, 02:56 AM

Also, Omi, your explanation makes much more sense now. Thank you.

You're welcome!

tirial

04-27-2007, 07:50 AM

Post 746 I don't believe I've voted for dnooman previously. Sorry, on checking the thread, my error.

And dnooman - given just how flaking the boards are being (they've been down for at least 4 hours from here) I wouldn't leave posting your final speech until the last minute.

Post 741 This is by no means my full disclosure defense, I'll save that for when and if I have a date with the gallows . The way I see it now, the more Mafia that pile on my wagon the better. Could you put the cross down while you're climbing on the gallows? We need to find scum, not wannabe martyrs. If you have a defence please post it, while we still have time to analyse it (and hopefully a chance to read it).

--
Out-of-Game: I don't know about anyone else, but I've been having trouble with the boards over the last few days. Would anyone object if I took flat copies of the thread pages and put them on some spare webspace so if the boards go down again we can still read the thread and it doesn't interrupt analysis?

I'd need to get moderator permission for this, so if any players have objections, please let me know before I approach them.

On preview: fluiddruid - any comments on this option?

tirial

04-27-2007, 08:00 AM

Looking at dnooman's comment in Post 744 - which start? - The percypercy bandwagon had two distinct groups: Diggit and I one day earlier, or fluiddruid (P493) and you (P495)? Yes a case could be made against fluiddruid, but then cases can be made against anyone. Unfortunately, any implication that this switch from Lighnin to percypercy was mafia driven, does imply that either the bandwagon falling apart put mafia player(s?) at risk, or that Lightnin is mafia.

The only reason to risk themselves like that if Lightnin was town is because if the bandwagon falls part someone else is put at risk.

When you suggest Diggit, I think he posted too far before the main bandwagon started to really be part of it. The same is pretty true of me and I've already posted my defense about the bandwagon.

I will be honest and say that since dnooman is busy being a martyr, I'm probably going to be looking closely at fluiddruid - not because I particularly suspect him, but because his vote did come before dnooman's at the start of the bandwagon.

I still think we would learn a lot from looking at everyone on that bandwagon, even if dnooman remains today's lynch target.

CaerieD

04-27-2007, 08:40 AM

Can't say that I'm terribly surprised that the votes are stagnating right now. I'd pretty much called it at the top of this page. Nobody wants to be the tie-breaker. We had Idle Thoughts making a pretty bold move there, but then Rachm Qoch shows up, losing all suspicion of dnooman so that the tie keeps going.

All right, I need to wake up a bit better and then I'm going to be looking over the thread again. There is the possibility that one or both of our lynch subjects here is town, which concerns me, but I still feel like dnooman is our best bet. I'm going to try going over all of this with an unbiased eye and see if that opinion changes.

Lemur866

04-27-2007, 09:01 AM

I really have no idea where you're headed with this. You have suggested more than once that Lightnin' and myself are both town. It has become obvious enough IMO that I can now address it.

The Mafia do not have to protect each other. If anything a scum looks better if they have a confirmed scum vote to their name. I'm not Mafia, so there's no scheme going on there. If Projammer is Mafia, they'd be wise to just let him swing. Too much defending him would look suspicious, and a vote for scum makes one less likely to be scum in the eyes of the town.

Are you saying that if anyone reconsiders their vote that they're suspicious? That's ridiculous. At this point votes moved to, or made for, people who have almost no chance of being lynched should be suspect, they are empty votes. Votes made for the sake of making one, often just to obfuscate allegiances.

We're likely to see Mafia unvote in order to seem wise, and townies unvote in order to not kill a fellow townie.

The ones to cast the damning votes are likely to be either ballsy townies that trust their instincts (because they have no insider info) or ballsy Mafia looking to lynch a fellow Mafioso in order to look clean.

How great would that be for the Mafia to have us choosing between two townie lynches? They wouldn't even have to intervene in order to score a townie lynch.

If you're a townie, you need to think smart, not think the way that other people are thinking. You don't have to choose option A or B, you can choose C or nothing at all. Just keep in mind that the Mafia are trying to hide in plain sight.

But my point is that if there are two leading candidates, the mafiosi are going to try to swing the vote to one who isn't mafia. If neither are mafia they won't care which one goes down. But look at today's situation. One or two votes could switch the tally to either of you. With 4-6 mafia, it seems to me that if either you or Projammer is a mafiosi, it would be pretty easy for them to protect one by sending the other guy to the gallows.

I'm not predicting we'll see any such activity. So...what does that mean if it turns out to be true? That both you and Projammer are both town. If we DO see some last minute activity, those people are suspects, and the person they protected becomes a suspect. Of course, the likelyhood is that some of the votes against both you and Projammer are scum votes. But if you guys are both town, I suspect that there are FEWER scum votes than we expect. Mafia don't care who the town lynches, as long as it isn't mafia.

fluiddruid

04-27-2007, 09:26 AM

I guess I think we should be seeing more people turn up out of the woodwork to defend dnooman or projammer if either were scum. The mafia HAVE to protect each other. Sure, if a mafia lynch is inevitable they'll join in. But with only 5 or so votes, and 4-6 mafia, a push from the mafia could easily get someone else swinging. I'd expect a lot more work from scum to try to derail an anti-mafia bandwagon. Both projammer and dnooman's bandwagons have drifted along without serious opposition.That makes no sense. Clever mafia are only going to defend occasionally - they are also going to attack occasionally. Who looks bad if a defended player gets lynched anyway and turns out to be scum?

Looking for such obvious links so early in the game isn't going to help. There is a definite risk to defending other players facing a clear lynch, period -- if you're scum and they're scum, you've created a connection between the two of you, and if you're town and they're scum, you've basically hung yourself at the expense of Town.

I will be honest and say that since dnooman is busy being a martyr, I'm probably going to be looking closely at fluiddruid - not because I particularly suspect him, but because his vote did come before dnooman's at the start of the bandwagon.I'm not sure what to think about dnooman... I don't think his vote is particularly incriminating, but, the way he's defended himself seem more scummy than anything.

In regards to my vote, I explained it at the time and since - to me, it made the most sense given our information at the time. Whether or not I was right really depends on if Projammer, our other likely choice, is scum or not, which remains to be seen.

On preview: fluiddruid - any comments on this option?I'll have to check.

CaerieD

04-27-2007, 09:29 AM

Lemur866, the main flaw I see in that argument is that the Mafia are Dopers. They're over-thinking this just like the rest of us. True, they don't want to lose any of their numbers and will do their best to save their team, but these aren't stupid people. They know that any last minute activity like that will make them suspects, especially since you've just laid it all out like that. They would rather let one of their own get lynched than risk the whole team for one player. At this point, I think the Mafia would prefer letting things stagnate, keeping a tie going the entire time up until the end when one or two votes will swing the lynch the way they want it. It's not going to be a rush. If they do anything, it's going to be a Hail Mary pass. They're far better sitting back and letting the townies do something silly like rip each other apart over when so-and-so voted than risking it all for a single player.

Kyrie Eleison

04-27-2007, 09:52 AM

Remember agreeing with that?
Actually, no. I assume you're talking about this?

Yeah, I see your point, a completely silent townie provides some camouflage for scum. Death to lurkers!

Um, you with the rope, staring at me, hold off a second...

I acknowledged that I understood your point; that's a far cry from agreeing with your premise that silent townies do the town no good. The "death to lurkers!" and the "um, you with the rope" from one of the lower-post count posters, I thought would be seen as obvious over-the-top humor, but apparently it didn't work as well as I had hoped.

I can't fault you if I failed to communicate clearly with you, and I don't want re-open the discussion about lurkers, but I do want to point this out to make sure that it's clear to others. I in no way think that a strategy of lynching the lower-post-count folks benefits the town.

tirial

04-27-2007, 10:15 AM

Sorry CaerieD but I can't let this pass.
Post 782 "They know that any last minute activity like that will make them suspects, especially since you've just laid it all out like that. They would rather let one of their own get lynched than risk the whole team for one player."This refers back directly to your earlier actions, and again highlights a possible contradiction.
Post 646 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8504396&postcount=646)
My vote being the last being taken as a "scumtell" is very silly. Only a suicidal Mafioso would do that. It's far too early in the game for the scum to try sacrificing one of their own like that.
and Post 648 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=417106&page=13&pp=50)
While it might be quite noble to risk oneself for comrades, this is just a game. It'd be a poor tactic for the Mafia to do such a thing. They'd be more likely to pile on against Projammer in that case, to make themselves look innocent.
Are rather contradictory aren't they? Which do you think is more likely - for them to sacrifice one of their own, or not? You've given two reasons for your actions, one because mafia will sacrifice their own this early, one because they won't. Which is it?

In P646 you seem to say the mafia won't sacrifice one of their own this early, in P648 you imply that it makes sense for them to sacrifice one of their own by piling on to look innocent. (That post also implies Projammer is town purely because they didn't.)

Unfortunately, to a degree, this would also make sense for masons to do as well as mafia.

I wasn't going to post this, until I saw your post and thought about it again. Then I realised I wasn't holding off on this because of whether I though you were town or scum, but because of the way you have attacked any poster you even thought might think you were suspicious (e.g. the Omi no Kami v. CaerieD debacle, my mentioning night postings). So I realised it might be better out in the open for other opinions.

So, please clarify your stance on scum actions, and whether or not they would sacrifice their own.

Projammer

04-27-2007, 10:20 AM

Sorry CaerieD but I can't let this pass.
Post 782 "This refers back directly to your earlier actions, and again highlights a possible contradiction.

etc....

So, please clarify your stance on scum actions, and whether or not they would sacrifice their own.

I believe what she's saying is that if there is no chance of saving a mafia without drawing too much attention to themselves, they will go ahead and sacrifice one so that later they can say, "Hey! I voted to lynch ScumBoy back on day 2! That proves I'm town. Let's string up Innocent now."

Gadarene

04-27-2007, 10:28 AM

Updated Vote Count

5 -- Projammer (SnakesCatLady, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, Rachm Qoch)
5 -- dnooman (Lightnin', DiggitCamara, CaerieD, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts)
1 -- ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (Projammer)
1 -- CaerieD (Blaster Master)
1 -- Kyrie Eleison (fluiddruid)
1 -- SnakesCatLady (Lemur866)

Remember that the day ends at 6:00 p.m. Eastern time on Saturday evening. I won't be around then---my plane leaves this afternoon, and I return on Sunday---so assuming we make it all the way to the deadline without a lynch, there may be a bit of an unavoidable delay before everyone finds out the results. Alternatively, I may try to pop in and post the result, although I'll have to leave out the extended and always entertaining (well, to me) death scene. Apologies in either case.

CaerieD

04-27-2007, 10:34 AM

I believe what she's saying is that if there is no chance of saving a mafia without drawing too much attention to themselves, they will go ahead and sacrifice one so that later they can say, "Hey! I voted to lynch ScumBoy back on day 2! That proves I'm town. Let's string up Innocent now."

Yes, that's what I was saying. They aren't going to purposefully sacrifice one of their own, but they're not going to sacrifice the whole lot of themselves for one either. When your goal at the end of the game is numbers, it only makes sense to avoid an "all for one and one for all" mentality. To play the game looking for that kind of behavior is folly, because it's not going to happen. It's too obvious for them to make a production out of saving one another.

dnooman

04-27-2007, 11:02 AM

This is my final defense.

What follows is a list of my candidates for scum in order of how scummy they are coming off to me.

Scum:
Idle Thoughts
DiggitCamara
tirial

Maybe Scum:
Projammer
Lightnin'
fluiddruid
ComeToTheDarkSide
CaerieD

Not sure:
Millit The Frail
Lemur866
Kyrie Eleison
Hal Briston
Rachm Qoch
Blaster Master

Probably Town:
nesta
SnakesCatLady
Omi No Kami

Definitely Town:
NAF1138
percypercy
dnooman

Who is the easy target today? Me. Is that my own fault? Of course it is, only I am responsible for my posts. I have been purposely trying to get a lot of discussion and votes going, if they happened to land on me, no real matter.

I was dealt the role of Citizen. No power role, no insider knowledge, not even a dogooder. I was dealt this same role in the last game and my existence in the game was pointless. I thought about what the best and worst case scenarios for me might be in this game with the same role. Obviously the best case scenario would be for me to be alive at the end with the town winning. I'm nowhere near optimistic enough to think that that's even a remote possibility for me.

I figure that the worst case scenario for me would be to die without having given the town any info to go on. I think I've prevented my own worst case scenario in that regard, there has been plenty of talk, and plenty of fingers pointed at me for my unabashed and aggressive theorizing. When I die, the town will know that I was a Citizen, and they can look into the people who wanted to spill my blood the most. The only way this could backfire writ large is if the Mafia just sat back and watched the town tear me apart. I really don't think that is happening. This is evidenced by my list of whom I think are Mafia (which was created after Lightnin' voted for me, no OMGUSing here, I promise).

I voted for a townie, chances are I'm not the only townie to have done so, nor will I be the last. That's what happens folks, sad but true. You all know this, yet some people are trying to portray me as some sort of pivotal voter with a scum agenda. Come on. I do not feel good about percypercy being dead. I also do not blame myself for having made a stupid mistake, because I didn't make a stupid mistake, I made an uninformed one.

I think I have provided some very useful strategy and ideas for the town, and I know that I have generated a lot of discourse. Hopefully most of the people voting for me and the people at the top of my list are scum, if so, you have a roadmap to victory. There is, however, almost no chance that I have guessed who all the mafia are as noted in my list, all I have are guesses and instincts. I think the final analysis will show that I was on to a scum or two.

I am not a fool. I am not a great mafia player either. I am, however, aware of what I'm typing here and why I'm typing it. Look over my posts and see if it looks like I'm trying to mislead anyone. I assure you I'm not, this will be proven upon my death as well.

Bandwagons seem to be a popular topic in this iteration of the game. There have been a few bandwagons that I was not a part of, but nobody like to look at the other side of the coin do they? I was not involved with the "voting clusters" (in case some people refute that there ever was a bandwagon) for NAF1138, Projammer, DiggitCamara, or Omi No Kami. The scum are most likely going to let their votes for me stand (or retract them just to look more pro-town once I've been killed), so I'm mainly adressing this to my fellow townies. If you feel like the most information will be gained from my death at this point, then go ahead and lynch me. I will say for the record that my behavior is due to my expendable role. Do you think that after I swing you are more likely to say "Wow, that scum was stupid, he just came right out there and got himself lynched!" or "Crap! He was doing just what he said he was, putting his neck on the line (literally) in order to get the scum to slip up." I realize that any position at this point can either be taken at face value, or as a trick. I am not, nor can I be, tricking the Mafia or the scum. The only people left have a decision to make that is hopefully pro town, otherwise there's just an autopsy. That can be useful too, but dead townies do not help our total.

There are a few scenarios that I've thought about that might clear my name, but none of them are in the best interest of the town. For example "have the detective invetigate me", that would prove my innocence, but it would wast a possible scum investigation and would require the detective to potentially out themselves which would be very bad. Then there's the "kill person x and if he's town then kill me". The problem with this is that I only have guesses at the moment, if I were to pick someone high on my list and they turned out Mafia, great. If i picked someone that was town, we're two townies down, plus a night kill in between them.

If the detective investigated me last night (I highly doubt it) I think that they should keep my town status, and their detective status secret. I'm gonna die regardless, no need to take down a power role with me. I'm curious as to whether the Mafia would kill me tonight because of my remarks, or if they'd let me live to get lynched another day. Probably the latter, there have to be a few townies in the group that wants me to swing. All-mafia lynches have to be a very rare thing indeed.

In the interest of trying to stay alive I'll vote Projammer.

Call this "being a martyr" all you want. The end result is all that matters.

tirial

04-27-2007, 11:44 AM

When your goal at the end of the game is numbers, it only makes sense to avoid an "all for one and one for all" mentality.

True, but risking one to save one makes sense, which is the scenario we were discussing. Again its only risking one to save one if Projammer is scum. I do find it interesting that Projammer was the first person to argue against my post, due to your vote being the one that took him out of danger on day one.

Still not sure, but frankly I think Projammer still comes off as scum more strongly than dnooman.

Vote projammer

By the way, I will be away for most of Saturday, but I will be checking this evening and tomorrow morning early.

Lemur866

04-27-2007, 11:54 AM

Well, as I said before, it's going to be very useful information when you end up dead, dnooman. And that information is going to be very helpful to us. Unfortunately, the only way for you to be proven innocent is once you're dead. So no matter how much I'd like to prove that you're a townie, killing you to prove you're a townie is a pretty dumb move. Goose, eggs, etc. I can't help but think that many of the town votes against you (as you say, it can't all be mafia votes against you) are done by people who want their curiosity satisfied. But that isn't a helpful strategy.

Also, you made only one mistake on your "definately town" list. Since you don't have my inside information it's an honest mistake.

DiggitCamara

04-27-2007, 12:34 PM

Color me... unimpressed by your alleged farewell post, dnooman.

The lynchpin of my lynching vote is (or are) your posts shortly prior and shortly after the vote swing against percypercy. And I don't think you have explained them enough.

However, the way votes are going right now, I doubt very much we will see you swinging... and it's quite likely Projammer is going to hang for the same reason we saw another quiet player hang.

fluiddruid

04-27-2007, 12:42 PM

Who is the easy target today? Me. Is that my own fault? Of course it is, only I am responsible for my posts. I have been purposely trying to get a lot of discussion and votes going, if they happened to land on me, no real matter.Frankly, dnooman, I'm not sure if you're being honest. Let's say that you are for the sake of argument. You're emphatically NOT the easy target. You know who is? Projammer. Narrowly averting a lynch at the last minute is far more suspicious than your vote for percypercy.

I was dealt the role of Citizen. No power role, no insider knowledge, not even a dogooder. I was dealt this same role in the last game and my existence in the game was pointless. <snip>I'm not sure what to think of this. My gut says that these are the words of scum trying to avoid an easily disprovable role claim. You're appealing to our emotions and you've been doing so all day. You "are tired" of being blamed for your vote. You feel your involvement is "pointless". You're not optimistic you'll stay in the game. We're supposed to feel really sorry for you. I don't think so.

We're all at risk of a lynch, and you've casually listed out who you feel is scum and who's not. Fine. Maybe it's the last ditch effort of a townie - but you haven't given us much information about why you're pointing blame and why you've given others a pass.

In the end you have tried to craft a good defense. I have to say it worked, Projammer now has a definite lead in the votes.

Look, I don't blame you for voting. It was Day One for gods' sakes. I voted for percypercy too and I agree that it seemed like a good idea at the time. You are acting like a martyr and frankly I don't see a lot of reason for a legitimate townie to do so. In this game, emotional decisions are bad decisions.

From my interpretation, however, you've only damaged town today. At best, you're a vanilla townie who's tipped his hand and made other townies with power roles that much more likely to get a night kill. At worst, you're scum doing the gallows dance.

vote dnooman.

DiggitCamara

04-27-2007, 12:48 PM

From my interpretation, however, you've only damaged town today. At best, you're a vanilla townie who's tipped his hand and made other townies with power roles that much more likely to get a night kill. At worst, you're scum doing the gallows dance.

vote dnooman.
... shouldn't you unvote Kyrie Eleison first? :dubious:

fluiddruid

04-27-2007, 12:53 PM

Oh yeah, oops. unvote Kyrie Eleison. I didn't think about doing that if I was voting for someone else right away. :)

Projammer

04-27-2007, 12:57 PM

Well crap.

I was really hoping to avoid this, but it seems that I'm going to have to out myself to give people time to reconsider.

I'm one of the Do-Gooders.

That being said, I'm now just a vanilla townie.

I'm effectively neutralized as a power role.
There's now zero chance that the mafia will try to recruit me.

On the other hand, lynched is about as neutralized as you can get.

Then, on the third hand, make that left foot, they weren't likely to try anyway the way I've been having to dodge accusations

Sorry to derail your bandwagon again folks.

I'm still not reading dnooman for scum, but considering the way I've been playing, I might not be the best judge.

Gadarene

04-27-2007, 01:31 PM

Updated Vote Count

7 -- Projammer (SnakesCatLady, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, Rachm Qoch, dnooman, tirial)
6 -- dnooman (Lightnin', DiggitCamara, CaerieD, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts, fluiddruid)
1 -- ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (Projammer)
1 -- CaerieD (Blaster Master)
1 -- SnakesCatLady (Lemur866)

And I'm off. See y'all in a bit. Play nice.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

04-27-2007, 05:56 PM

Aaaaaaand now that we're apparently back...

(I scrolled through my history a few inches in hopes that this post was still in my cache somewhere prior to the hamster rebellion)

...and it's quite likely Projammer is going to hang for the same reason we saw another quiet player hang.

I'm going to have to call :dubious: on this correlation to circumstances on GameDay 1 as well.

You honestly think Projammer has the vote lead because he's "quiet"?

SnakesCatLady

04-27-2007, 06:16 PM

I'm going to try this again since the hamsters ate my post.

Lemur866 - wouldn't scum be afraid to actively defend scum? If they go on record as defending scum it is there for all the town to see once the scum swings. I think scum would be more likely to try to deflect votes onto another player than to actively defend. Of course, you may have made that mistake yourself if Lightnin' turns out to be scum.

Omi no Kami - I was the first to vote for Projammer this game "day". Please explain to me how this makes me "agree with current accusations"? I am not following your logic and I would like to understand if I am misunderstanding you, because you are seriously starting to ping my scumdar.

In light of Projammer's recent role claim, I have a question. If he is a Do-Gooder, would that become known after he was lynched? It seems very questionable that he would claim a role that cannot be verified. If he is Do-Gooder it would appear to me that he has only postponed his death from day to night, because as a known townie this early in the game I would think it in the Mafia's best interest to go ahead and off him. We can't verify that he is town, but he wants us to select another target. If we do select another target he lives until night. If he's not town, but scum, the Mafia isn't going to off him. (Would they? Do they off their own?) However, the way I see it, they might not off him even if he is town because they want to confuse us.

So color me confused. I am not changing my vote at the moment but I may do so after reading discussion of this role claim and its effects on the town in general.

Now I will copy this post and hope the hamsters don't eat it.

DiggitCamara

04-27-2007, 06:36 PM

Aaaaaaand now that we're apparently back...

(I scrolled through my history a few inches in hopes that this post was still in my cache somewhere prior to the hamster rebellion)

I'm going to have to call :dubious: on this correlation to circumstances on GameDay 1 as well.

You honestly think Projammer has the vote lead because he's "quiet"?

Nope. I think he's got the vote lead because
1. he had gathered up enough suspicion on Day One and
2. because he didn't defend himself effectively during this day

Lemur866

04-27-2007, 06:47 PM

To be clear, I'm not imagining a massive PR campaign by the mafia to save another scum. Just that a couple of votes shifted here or there can turn the tide from one player to another. A mafiosi is much more likely to pile on another vote onto a townie than vociferously defend another mafiosi.

Of course, since everyone is on guard against such behavior, it probably won't happen.

Projammer

04-27-2007, 07:37 PM

I'm going to try this again since the hamsters ate my post.
Hmm. Hamsters as agents of the mafia. Whoda thunk?

Lemur866 - wouldn't scum be afraid to actively defend scum? If they go on record as defending scum it is there for all the town to see once the scum swings. I think scum would be more likely to try to deflect votes onto another player than to actively defend. Of course, you may have made that mistake yourself if Lightnin' turns out to be scum.
Solid thinking. But then, I'm pretty sure that Lightnin is scum.

In light of Projammer's recent role claim, I have a question. If he is a Do-Gooder, would that become known after he was lynched? It seems very questionable that he would claim a role that cannot be verified. If he is Do-Gooder it would appear to me that he has only postponed his death from day to night, because as a known townie this early in the game I would think it in the Mafia's best interest to go ahead and off him. We can't verify that he is town, but he wants us to select another target. If we do select another target he lives until night. If he's not town, but scum, the Mafia isn't going to off him. (Would they? Do they off their own?) However, the way I see it, they might not off him even if he is town because they want to confuse us.
Again, solid questions. My role will be confirmed upon my death, whether today, tonight, or whenever. I am now both a target for the mafia to be taken out or left alone according to their strategy. My only defense at this point is of course the Doctor.
Now I will copy this post and hope the hamsters don't eat it.
Can we vote to lynch the mafia hamsters?

DiggitCamara

04-27-2007, 07:40 PM

Lemur866 - wouldn't scum be afraid to actively defend scum? If they go on record as defending scum it is there for all the town to see once the scum swings. I think scum would be more likely to try to deflect votes onto another player than to actively defend. Of course, you may have made that mistake yourself if Lightnin' turns out to be scum.

In light of Projammer's recent role claim, I have a question. If he is a Do-Gooder, would that become known after he was lynched? It seems very questionable that he would claim a role that cannot be verified. If he is Do-Gooder it would appear to me that he has only postponed his death from day to night, because as a known townie this early in the game I would think it in the Mafia's best interest to go ahead and off him.

(quote edited for brevity)
Regarding scum's defense of scum... it depends. Like dnooman's "advice" to masons, any predictible behavior ends up biting power roles in the ass. And trying to predict the behavior turns into a guessing game (like this: Ah! they'll try to attack each other! But... they know that I know that they'll attack each other! Then they'll defend each other! But... they know that I know that they know that they'll defend each other! Repeat ad absurdum)

Concerning claiming to be a Do-Gooder... It helps scum a tiny bit (at least they won't waste their recruitment effort) but in other respects it does absolutely nothing. Scum won't care about an outed Do-Gooder, and maybe even exclude him from their kill lists since he very well might getting lynched.

SnakesCatLady

04-27-2007, 08:24 PM

I'm seriously considering changing my vote for Projammer. I don't want to lynch another townie - if he's a townie. I am hoping some other folks will come in with some analysis to help me decide.

I'll be in the bar.

dnooman

04-27-2007, 09:32 PM

I was thinking about Projammer's role claim, and for some reason I don't get the feeling that it's a lie. I'm not sure why, I had him fairly high on my scum list. I have to leave my vote on him though because if it comes down to either him or me, I'm only sure that I'm town. He could be lying. As some others have said, I'm starting to think that we might be in a lose-lose situation with possibly two townies up for lynching.

Question for Gadarene, does a no-lynch vote have to be unanimous or just a majority?

Projammer

04-27-2007, 09:41 PM

While I could obviously move my vote to dnooman to tie the top place, I'm going to leave things where they are and let a jury of my peers decide. Even though a good number of my peers are known to be scum while not necessarily knowing which ones are.

Projammer

04-27-2007, 09:43 PM

Question for Gadarene, does a no-lynch vote have to be unanimous or just a majority?
Same as a lynching. Majority.

Hmm.
Unvote ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
Vote No Lynch

SnakesCatLady

04-27-2007, 10:09 PM

I am not sure enough of Projammer. I am still very suspicious - I think he's lying - but I'm not sure.

unvote Projammer [/red]

This goes back to the first day; immediately after DiggitCamera articulated his suspicions of the late lamented percypercy, fluiddruid voted for her.

[color=blue]vote fluiddruid.

SnakesCatLady

04-27-2007, 10:11 PM

Well, somehow I screwed that up.

unvote Projammer

vote fluiddruid

dnooman

04-27-2007, 10:30 PM

Well, somehow I screwed that up.

unvote Projammer

vote fluiddruid
Why throw your vote at someone who stands no chance of being lynched today? I can see why you would unvote Projammer, but why vote for fluiddruid? Is it to secure your voting record? Does the idea of a no-lynch seem counterproductive to you? fluiddruid might be scum, I agree, but does a vote for her help or hurt the town at this juncture?

What are your thoughts about whether I'm town or scum? I ask because you have basically just tipped the scales to some degree towards me. I'm sure you thought about that too, I'm just wondering what your complete thought process is/was.

SnakesCatLady

04-27-2007, 10:47 PM

Why throw your vote at someone who stands no chance of being lynched today? I can see why you would unvote Projammer, but why vote for fluiddruid? Is it to secure your voting record? Does the idea of a no-lynch seem counterproductive to you? fluiddruid might be scum, I agree, but does a vote for her help or hurt the town at this juncture?

What are your thoughts about whether I'm town or scum? I ask because you have basically just tipped the scales to some degree towards me. I'm sure you thought about that too, I'm just wondering what your complete thought process is/was.

I'm not sure about you. I don't think you are town, but I am not sure enough to vote for you. I am sure enough of my suspicions of fluiddruid to cast my vote that way.

I don't consider it to be helping the town to vote for someone I'm not reasonably sure of. And if my suspicions about you get more tangible, I still have time to change my vote. ;)

dnooman

04-27-2007, 11:31 PM

I'm not sure about you. I don't think you are town, but I am not sure enough to vote for you. I am sure enough of my suspicions of fluiddruid to cast my vote that way.

I don't consider it to be helping the town to vote for someone I'm not reasonably sure of. And if my suspicions about you get more tangible, I still have time to change my vote. ;)
Vote for me if you feel you must, but you still failed to answer my question about voting for someone who will almost definitely not receive enough votes to cause a lynch. How does that help the town? It helps your position if you are right, but not today.

You say
I am not sure enough to vote for you. I am sure enough of my suspicions of fluiddruid to cast my vote that way.

...yet by your actions you bring me closer to death and fluiddruid closer by a total of one vote. Your vote for someone who's role will not be revealed tonight, coupled with your unvote leading to a more possible death of someone you have professed to be less suspicious of makes no sense at all.

If I'm reading your post right, you are not sure about whether or not I or Projammer are town, yet you're sure enough about fluiddruid to vote for her. Your unvote changed the balance, and your new vote changes nothing. Why not a "no-lynch" if you have the best interests of the town in mind? Your vote has been counted, feel free to do something that might actually help the town today.

SnakesCatLady

04-27-2007, 11:57 PM

dnooman, I am doing what I feel is in the best interests of the town. You seem to be goading me into voting for you - what's up with that? Are you tired of playing? I don't feel that a "no lynch" vote gives the town any information in the event I am on the Mafia's menu for tonght. I don't feel it is in the best interests of the town to just blindly follow the pack. I don't know why you can't seem to understand this, but I will not vote for someone who is more likely to be lynched if I am not reasonably sure they are scum. How does voting for someone I am not sure of help the town?

Kyrie Eleison

04-28-2007, 12:05 AM

Now that's a vote I can get on board with. Fluiddruid was third in line to vote for both of our confirmed townies. Her vote for NAF struck an odd chord with me: I voted for NAF merely to prod him to talk further about his vote for DiggitCamara; fluid voted for him in post #199 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8483982&postcount=199) after he had already credibly explained further in post #197 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8483955&postcount=197). It struck an odd chord with NAF (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8485401&postcount=235) too:

A third vote because I was mildly suspicious of another player? After saying that the other player seemed more suspicious?

Projammer and dnooman are the ones taking the heat, but who really got percypercy lynched? Fluid was the one who suggested percy as a convenient target, and turned the momentum away from Lightnin':

Though I have pointed out suspicion for several others, this to me seems like the least loss to the team should it be an incorrect vote. Since odds are stacked against us on this vote, vote percypercy for now. Though, I'll be interested to see how percypercy and Lightnin' both participate in the remaining time. What's holding me back is I think odds are much better that Lightnin' has a power role compared to percypercy and frankly a bad loss the first round could kill our chances given how few truly valuable power roles we have... but, based on all I've read, I can't disagree that Lightnin' has a bigger reek of scum to me.

I don't care for it much when someone votes for a person while saying that they're more certain that someone else is scum. It smacks of having multiple convenient targets to chose from.

She all but decries her vote in post #649 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8504581&postcount=649):
When I voted for percypercy, I didn't really consider him a serious lynching candidate. I just got absolutely no scum feeling about Projammer at the time, based on the arguments that were out there. I assumed that the bandwagon was going to roll over on Projammer anyway
Not a serious lynching candidate? So where was the unvote when train built up steam? Maybe she was away during the remaining hours and not aware of the effect her vote had, but that strikes me as bit too convenient.

In a way, I'm taking the coward's way out. Since my gut tells me that both dnooman and Projammer are town, I don't really want to cast a vote for either. I won't vote no lynch, because I think that's almost always bad for the town. I know that refusing to get on either of the most prominent wagons will raise some eyebrows, but nonetheless, I think I will vote for the person I think most likely to be scum. Vote: fluiddruid

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

04-28-2007, 12:48 AM

I eagerly await the participation of our silent and/or otherwise indisposed players.

tirial

04-28-2007, 12:52 AM

unvote Projammer - if you are telling the truth about your role, as a confirmed townie, you will probably be a target tonight. If not, then I will question your claim.

Problem is I don't have anyone else currently above anyone else on the "suspects" radar, and since I am beginning to think dnooman is town, I'm reluctant to vote for him.

Although, I will say I am slightly uncomfortable about this fluiddruid vote - I flagged her as someone to look for purely off voting patterns, not scum tells, which is why I haven't voted.

tirial

04-28-2007, 12:56 AM

Originally Posted by fluiddruid: When I voted for percypercy, I didn't really consider him a serious lynching candidate. I just got absolutely no scum feeling about Projammer at the time, based on the arguments that were out there. I assumed that the bandwagon was going to roll over on Projammer anyway.

Why did you assume that? When you voted, the Lightnin bandwagon was in full swing. After yours and dnooman's votes (two posts apart) percypercy went into joint lead with Lightnin - then on four votes. Projammer and Omi no Kami were tied below him at 3 votes each.

dnooman

04-28-2007, 01:14 AM

SnakesCatLady and tirial have shifted the vote towards me, with less than one real day remaining.

How does voting for someone I am not sure of help the town?

Indeed. How does changing the vote balance help the town? How exactly are you helping the town? You voted for the person that you thought was most likely scum, now what? If their role is not revealed tonight, what good have you done?

Kyrie followed your vote. What are we to make of that?

I'm going to assume that you'll not answer each of these questions individually. You don't like making guesses, and it seems you don't like answering questions either.

Rachm Qoch

04-28-2007, 01:33 AM

dnooman, I am doing what I feel is in the best interests of the town. You seem to be goading me into voting for you - what's up with that?
It's odd you say that, because that's exactly what I suspected Omi no Kami of trying to do to both of us in post #768 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8512150&postcount=768), where she casts aspersions on us. Which would make perfect sense if both she and Projammer are both Mafia. Omi no Kami is presently voteless -- why not divert one or both of the more unsure votes against Projammer to herself, and let her buddy live another day?

Her peculiar posts notwithstanding, she puts out a vague townie vibe. I had backed off her earlier for this reason. But this post seems like it was meant to do the opposite.

Kyrie Eleison

04-28-2007, 01:53 AM

Kyrie followed your vote. What are we to make of that?

I'm going to assume that you'll not answer each of these questions individually. You don't like making guesses, and it seems you don't like answering questions either.You really are either suicidal or careless then? FWIW, Kyrie spent the day pondering whether he could make some distinction between dnooman and Projammer, both of whom seemed roughly equally likely to be town, or whether to vote for someone he really considered likely to be scum but had no chance of overcoming the momentum already built up against the two of you, or whether to fail to vote altogether.

Now, if you would be so kind, please point out the question I've failed to answer that allowed you to claim that I don't like answering questions. I've previously been faulted by others for being overly defensive, precisely, I thought, for being over-welcoming of questions.

Does anybody else notice an erie parallel with day one? We've still got more than a whole day to go, and it looks like Projammer is already the Lightnin' of Day Two. percypercy's guilt only became evident right before sunset -- the question is, who will the votes shift to at the last minute? Who's the real target?
I don't expect that it will become relevant, as it does come a bit late, but on the off-chance, I'd like to say now that I voted for fluiddruid while fully cognizant of the argument that will arise from Rachm's post, quoted here.

dnooman

04-28-2007, 02:04 AM

Now, if you would be so kind, please point out the question I've failed to answer that allowed you to claim that I don't like answering questions. I've previously been faulted by others for being overly defensive, precisely, I thought, for being over-welcoming of questions.
You were mentioned in that post, but it wasn't a response to you. Re-read it if you must.

Omi no Kami

04-28-2007, 02:09 AM

It's odd you say that, because that's exactly what I suspected Omi no Kami of trying to do to both of us in post #768 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8512150&postcount=768), where she casts aspersions on us. Which would make perfect sense if both she and Projammer are both Mafia. Omi no Kami is presently voteless -- why not divert one or both of the more unsure votes against Projammer to herself, and let her buddy live another day?

Her peculiar posts notwithstanding, she puts out a vague townie vibe. I had backed off her earlier for this reason. But this post seems like it was meant to do the opposite.

I can see how you might mis-interpret that as an accusation (which it wasn't), but I honestly can't imagine how you would interpret that as an attempt to draw votes to myself. Someone asked me to clarify my worries about scum flying under the radar, and I mentioned both of you as "fairly conservative players". It's obvious that I was using your behavior to clarify the archetype I was trying to describe, but it's easy to see that I never accused either of you of being scum, for the simple reason that I don't have any clear evidence to this fact.

I see two ways to interpret this:

1) You're interpreting that post as an accusation, in which case it seems like you're assuming it's acceptable for you to vote for me in retaliation (the aforementioned revenge vote; NOT a good move, since it's a nomination based on antipathy, not suspicion).

2) Considering that this is the second time you've gone after me (the first being the CaerieD bit), and that this time you have absolutely no basis for your tactics, you're scum and you're trying to get me lynched in the daytime so you can use a night kill to off one of the heavy analyzers who isn't likely to get killed during the day.

You seem like a reasonable person, and as such Occam's razor is telling me that #2 is much more likely than #1.

FOS Rachm Qoch

Omi no Kami

04-28-2007, 02:13 AM

Editing post:

"1) You're interpreting that post as an accusation, in which case it seems like you're assuming it's acceptable for you to vote for me in retaliation (the aforementioned revenge vote; NOT a good move, since it's a nomination based on antipathy, not suspicion)."

That first bit was supposed to read "You're assuming that I am under the assumption that revenge votes are permissible". Because I'm not; it helps nobody, and it doesn't further anyone's analysis.

Kyrie Eleison

04-28-2007, 02:19 AM

You were mentioned in that post, but it wasn't a response to you. Re-read it if you must.
I have done so. My mistake; question withdrawn.

Kyrie Eleison

04-28-2007, 03:09 AM

Oh, and humbly suggest that you might want to make your antecedents more clear, especially when using ambiguous plurals. Good luck, you callous bastage. (Post is made with full knowledge that Johnny Dangerously allusions are scum tells. Spin the wheel and see where your own WIFOM needle lands.)

CaerieD

04-28-2007, 07:06 AM

Damnit, people, don't you ever sleep?

Okay, this sudden vote shifting has me very uneasy. Is it just a coincidence? Was Projammer that convincing? Or am I (and everyone else currently voting for dnooman) being used as a tool to off a townie?

I don't know how active I'll be able to be today, since it's my niece's prom and I may be called upon to chauffeur. While I hope to be back and be active throughout the day and figure this little turn of events out, I've got no guarantees. So, I'm unvoting dnooman for now and voting No Lynch. If I get a chance to come back I may change my mind, but I dislike the ship jumping from Projammer. It makes me less sure of dnooman's scumminess now.

Hal Briston

04-28-2007, 01:08 PM

Ok, I'm going to have to make this quick (stealing a few minutes of SDMB time from an unexpected trip to the in-laws).

Still not buying what dnooman is selling. Not a bit of it. If I'm wrong about this, then I'll be the first one to drink to his memory, but damnit, I'm sticking to my guns on this one.

As for Projammer's role claim, what was the point? The only way the Do-Gooder is useful is if the scum don't know who has that role. I can't see any good reason for claiming that role. Why not claim vanilla town, and hope for the best? Hell, if you really are the Do-Gooder, then claim to be the detective and hope the scum do try and claim you, thereby wasting their recruitment.

I haven't been one calling for Projammer to swing, but that just comes off as a very odd move to me.

Anyway, that's my two-minute view of the past day. Hopefully I'll get back on before the day ends, just in case.

SnakesCatLady

04-28-2007, 01:22 PM

SnakesCatLady and tirial have shifted the vote towards me, with less than one real day remaining.

Indeed. How does changing the vote balance help the town? How exactly are you helping the town? You voted for the person that you thought was most likely scum, now what? If their role is not revealed tonight, what good have you done?

Kyrie followed your vote. What are we to make of that?

I'm going to assume that you'll not answer each of these questions individually. You don't like making guesses, and it seems you don't like answering questions either.

Quite frankly, I could care less that my unvoting Projammer has shifted the vote to you. I am not going to vote for someone I don't think is scum to save you, because I am not sure of you. I'm not sure enough to vote for you, but I'm not going to vote for someone else to save you.

How does changing the vote balance help the town? By stating that I am no longer sure enough of someone to vote for them, while still not being sure of them, I am hoping that others will look at the evidence and either not lynch an innocent person or convince me that I was right to begin with.

What are we to make of Kyrie Eleison following my vote? Uh, maybe that she agreed with my reasoning? How in the hell am I responsible for how someone else votes? I put my reasoning on the table, just like everyone else, and others are free to agree with it, disagree with it, or ignore it.

I don't like "making guesses"? What in hell do you think I am doing? Are you insinuating that I have knowledge I shouldn't have? I am using the contents of this thread to make my guesses. I am simply trying to have some reason behind my guesses, not just a shot in the dark or playing "follow the leader". If you don't like how I play the game, I hate it for you.

I have now done my best to answer your questions. My turn - I have a question for you, dnooman. How does voting for someone I am not sure of help the town? What kind of information does that leave them if I am on the Mafia's menu for tonight?

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

04-28-2007, 01:38 PM

As for Projammer's role claim, what was the point? The only way the Do-Gooder is useful is if the scum don't know who has that role. I can't see any good reason for claiming that role. Why not claim vanilla town, and hope for the best? Hell, if you really are the Do-Gooder, then claim to be the detective and hope the scum do try and claim you, thereby wasting their recruitment.

The boards have been timing out since I got up this morning, but as I sat here hitting refresh over and over, I was thinking the exact same thing. To claim Do-gooder, if true, is divulging information needlessly. There have been people posting that "all liars should swing", but I find it hard to believe that a legit Do-gooder would be afraid of the consequences of not being 100% honest with a role claim, especially this early in the game. If the claim is false, but he is town, the lie doesn't really gain the town anything. While the claim might bump Projammer down the list of potential scum recruits (if he is town), I'd wager that it hasn't take him off their list completely.

My vote is staying where it is.

tirial

04-28-2007, 01:46 PM

SnakesCatLady and tirial have shifted the vote towards me, with less than one real day remaining.

Right
1) I unvoted projammer because he has role-claimed. Depending on how events play out he may or may not be the best person to vote for, but I am no longer sure. Admittedly Projammer if you are a Do Gooder I think you were giving off such scummy vibes that the mafia wouldn't recruit you - whatever you are, you've already had two bandwagons in two days.
2) He isn't the person I am most suspicious of right now, but I am still putting a case together.

However, I don't think we can get away with a no kill. Whether the mafia kill or recruit we will be down one townie tonight, and gain as little information as they can provide us with. To get useful information we need to lynch someone to confirm their role. I will place a vote when I have finished reading the thread, if I can find someone who is definitely scum.

By the way, you gave a definite impression that you wanted to die for the town earlier today. Why are you suddenly complaining that a shift in votes caused by another player's roleclaim leaves you likely to do just that?

Rachm Qoch

04-28-2007, 01:55 PM

I can see how you might mis-interpret that as an accusation (which it wasn't), but I honestly can't imagine how you would interpret that as an attempt to draw votes to myself. Someone asked me to clarify my worries about scum flying under the radar, and I mentioned both of you as "fairly conservative players". It's obvious that I was using your behavior to clarify the archetype I was trying to describe, but it's easy to see that I never accused either of you of being scum, for the simple reason that I don't have any clear evidence to this fact.

I see two ways to interpret this:

1) You're interpreting that post as an accusation, in which case it seems like you're assuming it's acceptable for you to vote for me in retaliation (the aforementioned revenge vote; NOT a good move, since it's a nomination based on antipathy, not suspicion).

2) Considering that this is the second time you've gone after me (the first being the CaerieD bit), and that this time you have absolutely no basis for your tactics, you're scum and you're trying to get me lynched in the daytime so you can use a night kill to off one of the heavy analyzers who isn't likely to get killed during the day.

You seem like a reasonable person, and as such Occam's razor is telling me that #2 is much more likely than #1.

FOS Rachm Qoch

OK, I'll try to explain my further suspicion based on your more recent posts. For your benefit I'll try to be as tactless as I can. :D

"Death to lurkers!"...
<snip>
...can I ask if it's a good idea to put the most scrutiny on people who've been participating heavily?...
<snip>
...why we aren't putting more scrutiny on the 'neutral' players?It's good you're narrowing things down a bit.

It's much easier to avoid the scrutiny of any particular townie if you don't target anyone specific, but just globally spread suspicion across the entire town, right?

CaerieD's been a lot more vocal recently and I'm trusting her a bit more, but Rachm Qoch and SnakesCatLady both stand out in my mind as being fairly conservative players; they'll agree with current accusations, but I can't remember either of them ever making a logical attack on anyone outside of day 1 when Caerie and I got into that dustup.
Logical? What logical attack had you made on anyone between day one and this post?

Conservative? Between Projammer and dnooman, I cast the tying vote, turning the tide against the prevailing vote-leader. If he turns out Town, that's my ass. That's conservative?
...that's why I haven't, and currently don't intend to, vote today: I haven't seen any really good evidence for scuminess from anyone...That's conservative!

Pot meet Kettle.

Reread what you wrote in 1) and 2) above, look in the mirror, and tell me why I couldn't apply that to you?

I don't know what to make of you. The nature of your posts has, in my mind, made you more of a big fat question mark than even Lightnin'. One minute you say something senseless like "lynch the tactful", and the next minute you come out to explain it in the most perfectly reasonable terms. (post #773 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8512226&postcount=773))

Time is not of the essence here. I could be way off base, and you just
might be newbie town, not just playing one. If you're town, I think that
will filter through sometime in the near future. And if you're Mafia, I'm
confident your newbie facade will slip and you will hang.

fluiddruid

04-28-2007, 02:16 PM

Now that's a vote I can get on board with. So, you cite a bunch of stuff that happened on day one. Curious. Where were you at the beginning of Day Two with this information? You only seem motivated to vote for me now that another person did, too -- and after I voted for you twice. You failed to mention that. Curious again.

I don't care for it much when someone votes for a person while saying that they're more certain that someone else is scum. It smacks of having multiple convenient targets to chose from.And here I was thinking that there was more than one person in the Mafia. Oh, wait. Who in this game hasn't posted who they find suspicious, or even laundry lists of "scum", "likely scum", "likely town"? Not many. I simply want my vote to count. At this point I don't feel like we have a lot more information -- nor the time -- to start from scratch before the day's over.

Not a serious lynching candidate? So where was the unvote when train built up steam? Maybe she was away during the remaining hours and not aware of the effect her vote had, but that strikes me as bit too convenient.To be honest, I mistook the time and was surprised when the day came to a halt. I don't really regret it, but saying that I led the bandwagon against percypercy is just silly. I cast the best vote that I felt I had in that situation. The only thing I regret is that he turned out to be town, instead of scum like I hoped.

In a way, I'm taking the coward's way out. Since my gut tells me that both dnooman and Projammer are town, I don't really want to cast a vote for either. To me, you seem to be trying one of the following:

- Casting a meaningless vote for someone who is unlikely to be lynched
- Trying to see if a last minute vote on someone else who you've "suspected" since extremely early in the game will work

I won't vote no lynch, because I think that's almost always bad for the town. And because you know you'll get nailed for it. It makes no sense to vote no lynch. Hell, I was "suspicious" because I responded to someone else agreeing NOT to no lynch!

I know that refusing to get on either of the most prominent wagons will raise some eyebrows, but nonetheless, I think I will vote for the person I think most likely to be scum. Vote: fluiddruidI was right to vote for you to begin with and I'm glad you've shown your true colors now. This is the scummiest post I've seen this game.

I tend to believe Snakecatlady -- due to her playing style, she's been shown to be very hesitant to cast a decisive and meaningful vote -- but when you do it, it makes no sense and is incredibly suspicious. Let's face it. Which makes more sense:

You honestly forgot about all this stuff from Day One until the last minute, and SnakeCatLady's argument against me was so compelling that you decided I was the best candidate for your vote.

or

You're voting for me because I keep voting for you, and I've been the biggest advocate against you. You'd like to see me lynched eventually to shut me up (and you wouldn't mind putting me in Projammer's current position for Day Three (assuming I'm still around), and throwing your vote away at the last minute seems like a good move to avoid being responsible. Maybe you even know that one or both candidates are town and you don't want to get your hands bloody.

I know what my opinion is.

tirial

04-28-2007, 02:51 PM

Current vote count as I make it:

5 -- Projammer (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, Rachm Qoch, dnooman)
5 -- dnooman (Lightnin', DiggitCamara, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts, fluiddruid)
2 -- fluiddruid (SnakesCatLady, Kyrie Eleison,)
1 -- CaerieD (Blaster Master)
1 -- SnakesCatLady (Lemur866)
2 -- No Lynch (Projammer, CaerieD,)

2 who haven't voted - Omi No Kami and Tirial.

SnakesCatLady

04-28-2007, 02:52 PM

I tend to believe Snakecatlady -- due to her playing style, she's been shown to be very hesitant to cast a decisive and meaningful vote -- but when you do it, it makes no sense and is incredibly suspicious.

I'm sorry I am being perceived as "hesitant to cast a decisive and meaningful vote". I am simply trying to cast votes for those I have at least some reason to doubt. If they are able to change my mind, good for them and I am likely to change my vote unless further evidence comes along.

I am not going to vote for someone I am not reasonably sure of. I don't care if every other player is doing voting for them.

DiggitCamara

04-28-2007, 03:28 PM

Does anyone have an idea when the day ends?

tirial

04-28-2007, 03:45 PM

Does anyone have an idea when the day ends?Post 583 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8502682&postcount=583) by GadareneDay Two has dawned. Night will fall on Saturday at 5:57 p.m. my time, if not sooner.

Also Dnooman, I was looking back at Post 401. In Post 401 you describe how a mafia game was lost with you doing exactly the same things you are doing now. Long story short, my appeals to emotion and frustration led one of the townies to decide to lynch me and we lost.
Example appeal to emotion: Post 766 (there are others)
I feel sorry for the innocent townies that get killed as a result of my death, I feel no remorse for the slimy scum that get exposed due to my baiting them.

Why are you doing exactly the same things that you state lead to the loss for the town in that game again here? You've got to be smarter than that. Try appealing to logic, instead of emotion. It gives us more to debate when you are alive and if you die, it gives us concrete leads to follow up on.

tirial

04-28-2007, 04:49 PM

Ok, I said I'd vote so I shall, reluctantly.

I can't find any obvious scum tells, so "definitely scum" I can't do.

I am equally suspicious of Projammer and dnooman. Dnooman's posts 401 and 378 sit badly with me on rereading them. Projammer's claim is understandable only if it is a) true or b) he's scum. If I discount it, my original reasons for voting for him are still valid.

If I place a last minute swing vote, it costs the town and me if I am wrong.

Without other input, I can't place a valid vote.

With that said vote Lightnin, on the grounds that if I was wrong about Projammer, the percypercy bandwagon formed to get attention off Lightnin.

tirial

04-28-2007, 04:58 PM

CaerieD

04-28-2007, 08:29 PM

Hrm, I see not a great deal has changed throughout the day. When does the night begin?

Omi no Kami

04-28-2007, 08:45 PM

Rachm Qoch, you might be an honest townie who really, really thinks I'm scum, since you keep railing on me for no good reason, but I just don't see what you're getting at here. My earlier argument didn't say anything about scum not making accusations: I think everyone else who read it can agree that I was trying to emphasize the fact that suspicion and accusation without analysis is in itself suspicious. I didn't say "People who don't make accusations seem scummy," I said "People who make accusations without providing elucidating analysis seem scummy".

As I've said like three times by now, the reason for this is pretty clear-cut: if you have a good reason for making an accusation, and the accused hangs and turns out to be town, it's quite easy for other townies to analyze your argument and look for traces of scuminess. If you just make accusations without a good reason, it just adds to the white noise.

And frankly, your response doesn't alleviate my suspicions in any way. I said "Hey, let's look for people who are trying not to make content-heavy posts," and used the types of posts you and catlady have been making as examples. As examples, not as accusations.

So you come back with "You fit the profile you're summarizing," (which I don't) "So I think you're suspicious!"

I'm having more and more trouble believing that a) My arguments are this ambiguously worded or b) That you're honestly this bad at interpreting things.

FOS I say!

dnooman

04-28-2007, 10:04 PM

Changing vote. Interesting voting pattern.

Dnooman, if I, Diggit Camara and Idle thoughts are "definitely scum" why have you not voted for us?

As it is Idle Thought and I haven't been voted for, and Diggit has only had a low vote count.
Unvote Lightnin
As soon as I would unvote Projammer, I would die (given the tied votes). I've made my suspicions known quite clearly, but I have an obligation to the town to not let someone who I know to be town get lynched. Simple really.

Gadarene

04-28-2007, 10:18 PM

I'm still out of town, so this is a very quick post to keep things moving.

Final Vote Count

5 -- Projammer (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, Rachm Qoch, dnooman)
5 -- dnooman (Lightnin', DiggitCamara, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts, fluiddruid)
2 -- fluiddruid (SnakesCatLady, Kyrie Eleison)
2 -- No Lynch (Projammer, CaerieD)
1 -- CaerieD (Blaster Master)
1 -- SnakesCatLady (Lemur866)

Given the tie vote, I've consulted random.org. The result:

dnooman, a Citizen, has been lynched.

The night begins now. Everyone please submit your night instructions by Monday evening Eastern time at 11:20 pm. Mafia, you may begin to consult amongst yourselves.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

04-28-2007, 10:52 PM

%#@$^#$^@##&!!! :mad:

dnooman

04-28-2007, 11:23 PM

Well, on the bright side there are plenty of posts to go over knowing that I was town. I hope that the towns analysis of what was said, and what was not said helps secure a town win.

Go Town!!

SnakesCatLady

04-28-2007, 11:24 PM

I'm sorry, dnooman.

Projammer

04-28-2007, 11:29 PM

Sorry dnooman. I did everything I could short of voting for myself.

Salud!

CaerieD

04-28-2007, 11:31 PM

Aw, geez. I'd started having my doubts towards the end, but withdrawing my vote didn't accomplish much, did it? Sorry dnooman. :(

Millit the Frail

04-29-2007, 09:49 AM

What the hell happened? %^^&^&$%&! Let's do this right tomorrow.....the wedding is over, and I'm coming back to the game with a vengeance.

Meanwhile, I guess I'll have a gin and tonic. Make that two.

tirial

04-29-2007, 10:12 AM

Sorry, dnooman. Going out on a coin toss is hard.

I am getting more and more frustrated with this. Is there any chance of finding real scum in the next day or so? (Rhetorical Question.)

Hal Briston

04-29-2007, 10:14 AM

Still not buying what dnooman is selling. Not a bit of it. If I'm wrong about this, then I'll be the first one to drink to his memory, but damnit, I'm sticking to my guns on this one.I suggest a new town strategy: Ignore any suspicion I might have.

My apologies, dnooman...here's to ya. <raises glass>

DiggitCamara

04-29-2007, 01:07 PM

I suggest a new town strategy: Ignore any suspicion I might have.

My apologies, dnooman...here's to ya. <raises glass>
Ignore any suspicion you might have? How about ignore any post I make?

Sorry, dnooman, I was clearly mistaken.

DiggitCamara

04-29-2007, 01:08 PM

Sorry, dnooman. Going out on a coin toss is hard.

I am getting more and more frustrated with this. Is there any chance of finding real scum in the next day or so? (Rhetorical Question.)
Well... at least we haven't lynched anyone with power roles.

As if that was any consolation.

Idle Thoughts

04-29-2007, 03:50 PM

Need to be honest here, I wasn't going to unvote you either even after your defense post, but I was (and would have continued being) wrong. :(

I'm sorry, dnooman, even though it doesn't mean much now. And I'm also sorry for spelling your name wrong all that time. :smack: I really thought that was a "orm" all long. My eyes aren't the best.

Idle Thoughts

04-29-2007, 03:52 PM

Also, everyone, I'm back now. I was away since Wednesday and having very limited internet access. I was able to get on once (on Thursday, in which I voted) and again on Friday but the SDMB happened to be down then to fix the blank posts.

However from here on (if I survive the night), I'll be on as much as I was when the game started, and probably as many posts too.

Lemur866

04-29-2007, 10:35 PM

Well, that that then.

So, now we wait. I'm gonna do some combing over the earlier controversies, hopefully to post something useful after the night turn. Well, assuming I survive, that is.

tirial

04-30-2007, 07:06 AM

So, now we wait. I'm gonna do some combing over the earlier controversies, hopefully to post something useful after the night turn. Well, assuming I survive, that is.

Well if you can see anything, you're doing better than I am <waiting nervously for daybreak>.

Lightnin'

04-30-2007, 10:08 AM

Well, crap. I go away for the weekend, and you guys lynch an innocent man. I can't leave this place for a second, can I?

Oh, wait. I voted for him as well, didn't I? Double crap.

SnakesCatLady

04-30-2007, 11:57 AM

This sure seems like an awful looooooong night...

Gadarene

04-30-2007, 12:21 PM

Ten more hours to the end of the night. Everyone, please submit your night instructions.

CaerieD

04-30-2007, 12:26 PM

Well, crap. I go away for the weekend, and you guys lynch an innocent man. I can't leave this place for a second, can I?

Oh, wait. I voted for him as well, didn't I? Double crap.

There's one small consolation: At least you didn't come back dead.

DiggitCamara

04-30-2007, 12:38 PM

There's one small consolation: At least you didn't come back dead.
Great idea for the next game!

Night of the Livin' Mafia!

Omi no Kami

04-30-2007, 12:39 PM

There's one small consolation: At least you didn't come back dead.

But... how can we be certain? Being a zombie is a scum tell!

Hal Briston

04-30-2007, 12:51 PM

Perfect! Being scummy is a zombie tell as well.

Omi no Kami

04-30-2007, 02:15 PM

So is smelling of hard liquor! (you never know how they preserve bodies these days, after all.)

Actually, now that I think about it almost anything could be a zombie tell! Mm, mafia brains... (they taste the best, obviously.)

Idle Thoughts

04-30-2007, 02:53 PM

Time always seems to slow down to a crawl when it's night.

Hal Briston

04-30-2007, 03:59 PM

Time always seems to slow down to a crawl when it's night.Yeah, too bad we don't have a player capable of going after Mafia members with a sword or something while it's night.

Because, of course, time flies when you're halving scum.

Projammer

04-30-2007, 04:11 PM

OOoohhh!! Nasty!

Horrid puns are a major scum tell.

Or at least they should be!! :p

SnakesCatLady

04-30-2007, 04:19 PM

Hal, you're going to drive me to drink.

Hey, any excuse will do - Bartender?

Lemur866

04-30-2007, 04:29 PM

Jeez, is it dawn yet? I can't take this punishment.

CaerieD

04-30-2007, 04:37 PM

I keep coming in here every time I see there's a new post, hoping, and every time I'm disappointed. Sigh.

fluiddruid

04-30-2007, 07:05 PM

Yeah. Stop posting, y'idgits!

;)

Millit the Frail

04-30-2007, 09:16 PM

The suspense! It's KILLING ME!

At least it's not the Mafia. Yet. Gulp. I'd rather die of suspense than by Mafia.

F5......F5........F5.........It's hard to relax when it's *someone's* final hour, you know?? :eek:

Gadarene

04-30-2007, 10:31 PM

(No time for a long post, so I'll have to make this pithy.)

The day has dawned. The townspeople approach the village green. There you find a tinny recording repeating the words, "God save strawberry jam and all the different varieties," again and again. There you also find Kyrie Eleison, stabbed through the heart with a sharpened deerstalker, magnifying glass clutched uselessly in his hand.

Kyrie Eleison, the Detective, is dead.

The day ends Friday evening at 11:30 p.m. my time.

SnakesCatLady

04-30-2007, 10:33 PM

Well, crap!

Sorry, Kyrie, you'll be missed.

Kyrie Eleison

04-30-2007, 10:41 PM

Bah. Go town!

Millit the Frail

04-30-2007, 10:54 PM

Noooo! RIP, intrepid Detective. :(

I'm getting started early today. I think Kyrie's "Anti-FOS" of Blaster Master may have been a breadcrumb, and also that it may have been how the Mafia uncovered him. I'm not saying he did a bad job of hiding his tracks, but that it seems like the Mafia did a very thorough job of rooting him out. It seems likely to me, but maybe that's just because I don't think Blaster is Mafia. Any other ideas?

Last night, after getting back in to town, I read over lots of the posts that were made while I was gone. I'd skimmed them all but wanted to dig a little deeper. I have to say, I've been very afraid all day that I'd be killed overnight without getting to post my list of prime scum suspects, so I'm going to do so pretty soon. I need to think and review just a little more, but I've got a hunch about a few people, and there's going to be some 'splainin to do.

Projammer

04-30-2007, 11:07 PM

Oh chit!

I'm more inclined to believe it was pure dumb luck. If they'd really suspected him for the detective, they would have recruited.

Not sure about the breadcrumb, will have to go back through his posts.

Sorry Kyrie

Idle Thoughts

04-30-2007, 11:29 PM

Wow, that's harsh.

It must have been a lucky guess. I don't see how they could have known.

Sorry, Kyrie Eleison. For the record, I never had any suspicions of you so you played well for the team.

All right....well, let's see what we have here.

Two bandwagons last day..one in which I was a part of myself. Looking over the fellow players who voted dnooman with me, I like to THINK they weren't on my meter before (really, none where save for fluiddruid) but damned if I'm not made to rethink things.

Looking over at the other bandwagon that was raised against Projammer, I'm still highly suspicious of all the same people I was before (Millit the Frail and on a lesser note, Rachm Qoch).

But MORE disconcerning is the no lynch votes from the day before. As I said in my first few posts in here, I just don't and can't understand why anyone would vote not to lynch anyone. This is the townies time (and only time) to try to pick off a scummy player.

I believe that casting a no lynch vote gives up this right and, at the same time, would be a good cover if one were really scum. Not only do you make it harder to feel you out based on your votes and history of voting, but it makes it seem like you're innocent by not voting for anyone and trying to cast off suspicion.

Now Projammer I can sort of understand doing this. After all, he was one of the two under scrutiny and didn't want to make himself look even more shady by casting a vote for, who he thought, was a fellow townie. Whether he Projammer IS really pro-town or not, I have no idea. But as of yet, even with the major votes he's garnered both day rounds, I have yet to see anything suspicious of him. Nothing that's tripped my radar.

CaerieD on the other hand I've had growing dread over.

But I don't know. I hesitate to vote at all now since my readings of [b]dnooman[b] were wrong (although before day is up, I will vote, because, again, voting no-lynch, I think, accomplishes nothing).

Guess I'll sleep for now and go to work reading past posts (again) tomorrow.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

04-30-2007, 11:53 PM

It had to be a lucky guess. Kyrie was able to ask for 2 reads, but only given the opportunity to leave breadcrumbs for one. I just can't imagine the scum being able to triangulate his position based on that. And as the town proved on day one of game one, it is possible to get damn lucky with a lynch.

SnakesCatLady

05-01-2007, 12:04 AM

Idle Thoughts

05-01-2007, 12:12 AM

Okay, just went through all of Kyrie's past posts. I found some interesting things.

By the 2nd day, he'll have had info. But the only person he makes any decision about is fluiddruid (well, he does also "anti-FOS" Blaster Master, but I don't think that's too much to go on), first in post #813 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8514719&postcount=813) where he votes for her..and a few posts later inpost #819 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8514719&postcount=819) where he makes a very, very interesting post.

In that post (819) he quotes a post of Rachel's about how, on day one, the votes were first all for Lightnin' but switched over to percypercy in the 11th hour. She (Rachel) also wondered if that would be the case here...which it was, only with dnooman.....which Kyrie gives a nod to and takes the moment to say that he's still sticking with his vote.

And, as it turns out, fluiddruid was one of the last to put in a vote towards dnooman.

Could it be that Kyrie had checked her out and found out she was scum? Could his vote towards her told the mafia that a (ANY) vote for a true scum might put that person on suspicion for being the Detective?

I've also been suspicious of fluiddruid from the start.

So I think NOW I'll actually keep my word and call it a night and mull things over more...but yeah, interesting things to think about now.

tirial

05-01-2007, 12:14 AM

I have to say that I am suspicious of CaerieD and Projammer for voting No Lynch, and for tirial and Omi no Kami for not voting at all. Tirial had voted for Projammer and Ligntnin', but unvoted them and did not cast another vote. I have been told that not participating is bad for the town, so I would like to hear why these players aren't participating.

I didn't vote finally because I wasn't sure. I withdrew my vote on Lightnin' because although he seemed like a potential scum candidate on review I really couldn't make a case - well not one that ws any stronger than you can make against anyone.

Idle Thoughts

05-01-2007, 12:18 AM

Dammit. My link to post 819 links, again, to 813.

Here is 819, (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8514862&postcount=819)in which Kyrie replies to said quote with said statements.

Idle Thoughts

05-01-2007, 12:19 AM

Also, what in the heck is wrong with me getting username's wrong? I meant Rachm not Rachel. :smack: :smack: :smack:

tirial

05-01-2007, 12:34 AM

Oh S...sugar! No detective. Sorry Kyrie, we'll try to find the scum (please tell me you left some clues).

OK, Here's my current suspicions list - I can build an equal case against any of them:

Projammer – I’m not sure. If he were mafia, a swing vote for dnooman would have pulled him out of danger of being lynched, and since his lynch would leave the rest of the scum open, it seems possible his role claim was real. On the otherhand they've left a confirmed townie still breathing. Otherwise I'd be voting to lynch him.

Fluiddruid – third person to vote on NAF bandwagon and third on percypercy

RachmQoch and CaerieD because there was something of a voting block going on there (more from Rachm than CaerieD.)

Lightnin’ – if the switch to percypercy was to protect lightin’ not projammer, then Lightnin is either scum or mason. Or the entire thing was a town mistake.

The other reason I withdrew the vote for Lightnin’ is that he wasn’t online to defend himself, which I only remembered after voting. If he’s not around you don’t get much information from it.

I’m not paying much attention to dnooman’s list because I suspect if he were playing JSexton would be right at the top as scum. I've played a lot of Paranoia and more serious political games (hence why I can build cases but detecting real enemies is pretty difficult) and Idle Thoughts ref's this. Diggit, got any past experience?

SnakesCatLady

05-01-2007, 12:52 AM

Did the mafia get Kryie because she had voted for fluiddruid? Why not go after a townie who has role-claimed?

tirial

05-01-2007, 01:53 AM

Did the mafia get Kryie because she had voted for fluiddruid? Why not go after a townie who has role-claimed?
I was wondering the same thing - if projammer is confirmed town/power role, he should be the number one target, except if they had definite ideas that someone else was a better target.

If the scum suspected that Kyrie was the Detective that makes sense. To go after Kyrie for no reason, only makes sense if Projammer is scum, and Kyrie's suspicions were too close.

Omi no Kami

05-01-2007, 02:09 AM

tirial

05-01-2007, 02:23 AM

Well crap.

I don't have much time this evening, so I just wanted to repeat my reason for not voting: I simply didn't see enough evidence to conclusively hang anyone. I'm still suspicious of CaerieD, and growing more suspicious of RachmQoch, but using the voting block from day 1 bothers me a bit, because Kyrie was part of it and we've confirmed she wasn't scum.
I'm not using the voting block from Day One only - there are other examples e.g. Two of Rachm's post's are "Me too's" on CaerieD's. My notes are on my home computer, but there is definitely a pattern between the two.

What I did note was that there appears to be a degree of trust between them, which surprised me in this game where you can't trust anyone. I'll look out my full notes tonight and post them.

And no, I have not had Kyrie down as part of the same group as CaerieD and Rachm. Admittedly he was down as a possible, as were projammer and Lightnin'.

Omi no Kami

05-01-2007, 02:29 AM

I'm not using the voting block from Day One only - there are other examples e.g. Two of Rachm's post's are "Me too's" on CaerieD's. My notes are on my home computer, but there is definitely a pattern between the two.

What I did note was that there appears to be a degree of trust between them, which surprised me in this game where you can't trust anyone. I'll look out my full notes tonight and post them.

And no, I have not had Kyrie down as part of the same group as CaerieD and Rachm. Admittedly he was down as a possible, as were projammer and Lightnin'.

Yea, I agree that there's something fishy going on. My observation was mainly looking at my own suspicions: the "me toos" are certainly good evidence, but what first made me suspicious of that block was the way they all attacked me on day 1... I guess it merits a second look to figure out how much of a pattern actually exists. ^^

tirial

05-01-2007, 03:40 AM

I've looked through Kyrie's posts from the last day and the summary seems to be
anti-FOSing Blastermaster p701 (acknowledged his reasoning was flawed in 706 so not likely to be the crumb), saying that he feels that dnooman and Projammer are town. (P813) and FOSing and voting for Fluiddruid.

His vote for Fluiddruid seems to be a definite - possibly a pointer. Fluiddruid voted for him in 714 for being the "low poster", but Kyrie posted in P772 saying again that Dnooman and Projammer were town, and fluiddruid was suspicous. Kyrie finally voted against fluiddruid in 813, after SnakesCatLday, which could be an attempt to disguise a detective vote by following a trend.

Post 813 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8514719&postcount=813) Now that's a vote I can get on board with.

I've been ignoring my own suspicions (Post 815 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8514810&postcount=815)) for two days because I was wrong about percypercy and everyone looked untrustworthy. CaerieD still looks odd, but I'd rather follow the Detective's lead.

Vote fluiddruid

Omi no Kami

05-01-2007, 04:32 AM

I guess it's worth a try... he/she talked me out of it when I voted for him/her on day 1, but if it's a potential detective breadcrumb we may as well try again.

vote fluiddruid

tirial

05-01-2007, 04:43 AM

I guess it's worth a try... he/she talked me out of it when I voted for him/her on day 1, but if it's a potential detective breadcrumb we may as well try again.

vote fluiddruid

I'd still like to hear from other people on this one (at least check the posts and confirm my reasoning - I'm currently feeling paranoid).

Omi no Kami

05-01-2007, 05:24 AM

I'd still like to hear from other people on this one (at least check the posts and confirm my reasoning - I'm currently feeling paranoid).

Absolutely. I still suspect him/her, but if it looks like it's getting close to a countdown and we're still short on evidence, I'll probably un-vote.

fluiddruid

05-01-2007, 07:19 AM

Wow. I am really surprised about Kyrie Eleison. I was so sure he was scum, but I guess now the detective makes a little more sense. I pegged at him for not being more decisive and not posting that much, but now it makes sense.

I've looked through Kyrie's posts from the last day and the summary seems to be
anti-FOSing Blastermaster p701 (acknowledged his reasoning was flawed in 706 so not likely to be the crumb), saying that he feels that dnooman and Projammer are town. (P813) and FOSing and voting for Fluiddruid.In my own defense, I feel I'm way too easy of a target here - intentionally so!

I'm basically the only person who suspected Kyrie Eleison, and flat out told him I thought he had posted the scummiest post this game. I all but directly told him I was planning to vote for him this round (which I was at the time). He's voted for me twice. If I'm scum, doesn't that seem, well, really really obvious? Mafia knows that I've been "suspected" since Day One and I'm an easy lynch target.

His vote for Fluiddruid seems to be a definite - possibly a pointer. Fluiddruid voted for him in 714 for being the "low poster", but Kyrie posted in P772 saying again that Dnooman and Projammer were town, and fluiddruid was suspicous. Kyrie finally voted against fluiddruid in 813, after SnakesCatLday, which could be an attempt to disguise a detective vote by following a trend.
Let's remember that the Detective only had one night to investigate. Not everything can be a breadcrumb.

Now, it's up to you guys who you think he investigated. Personally, I think it's likely that he investigated Projammer - the one who escaped the lynch last time. This takes Projammer off my suspicious list at least for the time being. However, there's a good argument to be made that he could have investigated Blaster Master - the reason for the odd "anti-FOS" statement - or dnooman and not myself. In fact, objectively, I'd say I'm probably third likely to have been the one investigated, if it was indeed one of those 4 - Projammer being the most likely, and Blaster Master, given the odd statement (with no real backing) about him being Town, second most likely.

Fortunately, I think the Mafia made a misstep here, as Projammer could still have been a likely lynch candidate today, and seems like he was trusted by the Detective (rightly or wrongly). But, if they can get me down, as one of the more active townies, they will still have succeeded in getting the third lynch in a row.

Let's remember, Kyrie only voted for me very late in Day Two, and, only when Snakecatlady voted. If she hadn't, would he have targeted me at all? Maybe it's just that he knew Projammer or dnooman was town. After all he did FOS me back in Day One - far before he could have investigated me.

Did the mafia get Kryie because she had voted for fluiddruid? Why not go after a townie who has role-claimed?Because the only role that had been claimed that wasn't dead was Projammer as a Do-Gooder, and there's no sense going after what seemed like a decent lynch candidate (and a now-irrelevant power role). After all I doubt they knew that Kyrie was the Detective. How could they, at this point?

For now, I'm not really sure which tactic to take. I'm suspicious of Omi no Kami - very fast to jump on me without really any analysis of why other than the shock of losing the Detective so early. But, I think it will be worth me going back through some old posts, as I don't think Projammer is scum at this point, and nobody else really has gotten a lot of votes lately. Still not sure on Lightnin though.

CaerieD

05-01-2007, 07:36 AM

Aw, geez. Well now we've finally lost a power role. I've got some stuff to do this morning and then I'll start going back over the thread to post my commentary. I see the accusations are flying fast already.

Omi no Kami

05-01-2007, 07:49 AM

Wow. I am really surprised about Kyrie Eleison. I was so sure he was scum, but I guess now the detective makes a little more sense. I pegged at him for not being more decisive and not posting that much, but now it makes sense.

In my own defense, I feel I'm way too easy of a target here - intentionally so!

I'm basically the only person who suspected Kyrie Eleison, and flat out told him I thought he had posted the scummiest post this game. I all but directly told him I was planning to vote for him this round (which I was at the time). He's voted for me twice. If I'm scum, doesn't that seem, well, really really obvious? Mafia knows that I've been "suspected" since Day One and I'm an easy lynch target.

Let's remember that the Detective only had one night to investigate. Not everything can be a breadcrumb.

Now, it's up to you guys who you think he investigated. Personally, I think it's likely that he investigated Projammer - the one who escaped the lynch last time. This takes Projammer off my suspicious list at least for the time being. However, there's a good argument to be made that he could have investigated Blaster Master - the reason for the odd "anti-FOS" statement - or dnooman and not myself. In fact, objectively, I'd say I'm probably third likely to have been the one investigated, if it was indeed one of those 4 - Projammer being the most likely, and Blaster Master, given the odd statement (with no real backing) about him being Town, second most likely.

Fortunately, I think the Mafia made a misstep here, as Projammer could still have been a likely lynch candidate today, and seems like he was trusted by the Detective (rightly or wrongly). But, if they can get me down, as one of the more active townies, they will still have succeeded in getting the third lynch in a row.

Let's remember, Kyrie only voted for me very late in Day Two, and, only when Snakecatlady voted. If she hadn't, would he have targeted me at all? Maybe it's just that he knew Projammer or dnooman was town. After all he did FOS me back in Day One - far before he could have investigated me.

Because the only role that had been claimed that wasn't dead was Projammer as a Do-Gooder, and there's no sense going after what seemed like a decent lynch candidate (and a now-irrelevant power role). After all I doubt they knew that Kyrie was the Detective. How could they, at this point?

This really doesn't strike me as convincing in the least. You've done a nice job of summing up perfectly believable reasons for Kyrie to have investigated someone else, but I really don't see how this specifically addresses tirial and my accusation. It's true that, based only on the trust list, there's an equal possibility of Kyrie having investigated any one of you.

HOWEVER, you're really starting to stink of deception here. On day 1 you were making other people answer extremely simple questions of strategy that you could've easily figured out for yourself, which could've been a smart way of finding scum or a dumb way of finding power roles. Either way, a player coming out of the gates with that much enthusiasm struck me as a bit weird. So I voted for you on day 1, but later got talked out of it.

However, I have to note that since then you've been significantly less vocal when it comes to making others explain their strategy. Again, it's possible that you quieted down to avoid mob scrutiny... but it's also feasible to think that you were quieting down to avoid making anyone else suspicious.

Finally, as I already mentioned, the way you're answering two measly votes is extremely suspicious. We've seen, on more than one occasion, players who quite reasonably analyze and criticize the reasoning others have used to vote for them. It's simple, and it has the added comfort of letting others analyze logical holes in both the accusation and the defense. You, on the other hand, seem to be trying to change the topic: two players out of a much larger number say "Hey, fluid could definitely be the one Kyrie investigated," but as a response (and please correct me if I'm characterizing your above post poorly) you replied "Well yea, but there are other people who could've been investigated". That's extremely reasonable. But then you tried to change the subject by following your analysis up with:

For now, I'm not really sure which tactic to take. I'm suspicious of Omi no Kami - very fast to jump on me without really any analysis of why other than the shock of losing the Detective so early. But, I think it will be worth me going back through some old posts, as I don't think Projammer is scum at this point, and nobody else really has gotten a lot of votes lately. Still not sure on Lightnin though.

That's all fair, although I'd argue that my reasons for voting for you again were perfectly clear when I voted: I thought you were suspicious on day 1, and other factors changed my mind. But as the game has gone on you've done very little to convince me you're innocent, and taken a few actions (summarized above) which make me worry you aren't.

And so I might be paranoid, but your response is so indirect (yea, I might be scum. But other people might be too. Think about THAT!), and you follow it up with that last paragraph which comes off as stunningly insincere to me: it looks like you're making a particular point of looking for suspicious activity, so we'll notice. And the only ones who would have a reason to do that would be scum.

I'm not anywhere near convinced you're guilty, and in fact I'd say I'm only 40% convinced. But I just wanted to mention how many alarm bells your response raises for me. ^^

tirial

05-01-2007, 07:53 AM

Let's remember that the Detective only had one night to investigate. Not everything can be a breadcrumb.True, but something had better be or the Detective is a worse player than I give him credit for. Somehow, I can't see Kyrie leaving no breadcrumb, so it only matters what he left. My FOS and vote is based on:

1) The fact that dnooman and projammer are always mentioned together in Kyrie's posts- the detective can only investigate one person, so if he has investigated projammer its likely he'd have mentioned him specifically.

That leaves the un-FOSing of Blastermaster and the vote for you as possible crumbs.

2) Kyrie mentioned you specifically as possibly scum twice - the second post he voted and gave a long list of reasons.

3) He un-FOS'd Blastermaster, but when I mentioned there were flaws with his logic he didn't post any further on the subject, rather than pushing it to leave a trail that Blastermaster should be trusted if anything happened to him.

Also, if Kyrie voted for you twice, as you state, rather than following bandwagons, isn't it more likely he investigated the person he suspected?

I haven't checked his posts to see who he suspected on day 1 yet, but that could be interesting.

SnakesCatLady

05-01-2007, 08:03 AM

3) I haven't checked his posts to see who he suspected on day 1 yet, but that could be interesting.

kyrie voted Naf1138 on Day 1, then unvoted him and voted for Omi no Kami. His only vote on Day 2 was for fluiddruid .

fluiddruid , I don't really see how you can classify yourself as "one of the more active posters" when you have even less posts than I do and I have been accused of not participating enough. You might want to come up with some better arguments because that one isn't working.

vote fluiddruid

tirial

05-01-2007, 08:07 AM

Also, if Kyrie voted for you twice, as you state, rather than following bandwagons, isn't it more likely he investigated the person he suspected?

Sorry fluiddruid, but I can't find the second vote you mentioned. As far as I can see, Kyrie voted for you once on the second day, after mentioning he was suspicious of you in an earlier post. Could you give a post reference?

tirial

05-01-2007, 08:10 AM

And fluiddruid - if not everything can be a breadcrumb, do you think the detective left one, and if so, what do you think it was?

Gadarene

05-01-2007, 08:33 AM

Updated player list:

Alive:

1. fluiddruid
3. CaerieD
4. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
5. Hal Briston
6. nesta
7. Projammer
9. SnakesCatLady
10. Lightnin'
11. Lemur866
12. tirial
13. Blaster Master
14. Millit the Frail
15. Rachm Qoch
16. DiggitCamara
19. Omi No Kami
20. Idle Thoughts

Dead:

8. percypercy -- citizen (lynched, Day One)
2. NAF1138 -- citizen (murdered, Night One)
17. dnooman -- citizen (lynched, Day Two)
18. Kyrie Eleison -- detective (murdered, Night Two)

Players from the reserve list posted previously will be subbed in as needed.

Blaster Master

05-01-2007, 08:59 AM

Sorry, this is the first opportunity to post since I got back in town, fortunately, it looks like I mostly missed the night. That said, I have a few items to address.

It sucks that we lost our detective with only one investigation (yet again!). That said, before we get too hasty, we do have to come to a concensus as to what was Kyrie's breadcrumb. Running on the assumption that about 25% of the population is scum (give or take), that means that if she investigated at random, there's a 75% chance that she got a townie, which would incline one to believe (purely theoretically) that it was most likely either dnooman or projammer (why not include both together, knowing that one would almost certainly get lynched?); although I would like to believe the un-FOS of me was the breadcrumb, I don't quite see that as likely. However, fluiddruid had drawn a fairly large amount of suspicion on the first day, and I had a dichotomy in my mental notes that it was likely that Kyrie and fluiddruid were from opposite factions. That said, intuitively speaking, fluiddruid makes the most likely candidate, closely followed by projammer and Lightnin'.

Based just on that (ignoring projammer's role claim for a moment), that makes, in my mind, projammer the most likely investigatee, and fluiddruid a very close second.

Now comes the projammer role claim variable. I'm inclined to believe it is bogus. Let's look at the possibilities.

1) projammer is a pro-town power role and claimed do-gooder so he wouldn't have to role claim something more serious. This option is a gambit, hoping the town would believe you enough not to lynch, and the mafia believe you enough not to try to kill you (why kill a lowly do-gooder?). However, he doesn't strike me as the doctor or nightwatchman, and if he were a mason, that would have been a much better claim, thus I'm inclined to believe this is a somewhat low possibility.

2) projammer is a plain-vanilla townie. This is a bad option and is distinctly anti-town, because he is lying to protect his own neck, and if he's still alive when a real do-gooder gets discovered, it will cast doubt on both of them. Considering that this is fairly well known as a bad strategy, I'm inclined to believe this is a very low possibility.

3) projammer is telling the truth. This, IMO, is a very bad play. The ONLY advantage of the do-gooder role is in it not being known. That is, the do-gooder should be trying really hard to get the mafia to really want to recruit him, so they waste their recruit which is ALMOST like having an extra lynch and no night kill. Instead, if he's telling the truth, beside the fact that he looks scummy and is therefore a bad recruitment candidate or night target because he's a likely lynchee; if he ever did become tempting as a recruitment, it's never going to happen now, and thus his power role is completely moot. Thus, if he ever does become well trusted, he'll simply be killed and not recruited. However, I can understand the desire to stay alive and attempt to cast suspicion on someone one believes to be scum instead of letting someone you know to be town (yourself) die. Thus, I'm inclined to believe this is fairly likely.

4) projammer is scum. This is definitely the best role claim to make, because it still has the role claim effect of making people think a lot harder about goign through with it, and it is completely unprovable and useless once it's been outted. He looked highly suspicious, and this role claim is enough to get enough steam off of his wagon to ultimately result in a townie lynch. Because of his over all scumminess and that this is the best role claim to make, I'm inclined to believe this is the most likely.

Of course, all of that said, add it all up and it looks most likely that projammer is scum; however, add in the percentage-wise and intuitive-wise likeliness that projammer was the breadcrumb and it pretty much knocks that back down to a big fat question mark.

After all of that, because the best breadcrumb candidate is likely to be pro-town, and the next best is almost as likely and was crumbed as scum, I think it's in our best interest for me to vote fluiddruid for now, especially because of her suspiciousness on day one (even though she didn't look suspicious at all yesterday). However, if fluiddruid comes up scum, that pretty much means she was the breadcrumb, making Kyrie's trust of projammer moot, and putting him highest on my FOS list.

Thus, lynch fluiddruid and HEAVY FOS on projammer. I could potentially see myself voting for projammer if someone can make a convincing enough case that neither projammer nor fluiddruid was Kyrie's crumb.

SnakesCatLady

05-01-2007, 09:05 AM

I was curious as to why Kyrie was lynched when Projammer had role-claimed. It crossed my mind that the scum know we are still suspicious of him, so they didn't get him in order to get us to do their work for them - and take the head off of fluiddruid.

SnakesCatLady

05-01-2007, 09:06 AM

Millit the Frail

05-01-2007, 09:48 AM

I can see the case made for fluiddruid being the breadcrumb. He's more likely to have been investigated. Is there any reason why Kyrie might have suspected Blaster Master? If not, then maybe that was a fluke. It looked very suspicious and odd to me, though, as if Kyrie were trying to say something affirming about Blaster but didn't quite know how to do so. Two of the players on my scum list were some of the first to say that getting the Detective was a "lucky break," right after I posted that the "anti-FOS" may have been the tip-off.

So here's my scum list, which looks a lot like some others I've seen floating around:

Lightnin'
Projammer
CaerieD
Cometothedarksidewehavecookies

I was pretty surprised to see that dnooman was on to most if not all of these as "probably scum," but that his "definitely scum" list had three players I've yet to suspect. Tirial seems pro-town. Idle Thoughts, despite being convinced that I'm Mafia ;), doesn't feel scummy to me. I have no feelings either way on DiggitCamara.

I'm going to hold off on voting for a while. I'm not as convinced about fluiddruid (yet) as I am about the first two on my list. I'd happily lynch either.

Lastly, what do we think about the extremely long night? Did the Mafia have a hard time choosing and get right down to the wire? Or did the Detective/Doctor/Night Watchman not turn in their information? The night ends before the deadline if everyone turns in their info ahead of time, right? Gadarene?

Gadarene

05-01-2007, 09:51 AM

The night ends before the deadline if everyone turns in their info ahead of time, right? Gadarene?

Yup. And assuming I'm at my computer. :) In this case, the last night instructions were submitted approximately three hours before my post ending the night.

fluiddruid

05-01-2007, 10:20 AM

On day 1 you were making other people answer extremely simple questions of strategy that you could've easily figured out for yourself, which could've been a smart way of finding scum or a dumb way of finding power roles. Either way, a player coming out of the gates with that much enthusiasm struck me as a bit weird. So I voted for you on day 1, but later got talked out of it...
However, I have to note that since then you've been significantly less vocal when it comes to making others explain their strategy. Again, it's possible that you quieted down to avoid mob scrutiny... but it's also feasible to think that you were quieting down to avoid making anyone else suspicious.This is the type of reasoning that is really not helping Town. I'm suspicious for being enthusiastic, participating, and searching out scum in Day One, but I'm also suspicious for not being enthusiastic enough about searching out scum in Day Two, in your estimation. This strikes me as a double-edged sword; essentially, no matter what I do. it's suspicious to you. This strikes me as suspiciously bad reasoning at best.

Finally, as I already mentioned, the way you're answering two measly votes is extremely suspicious. We've seen, on more than one occasion, players who quite reasonably analyze and criticize the reasoning others have used to vote for them. It's simple, and it has the added comfort of letting others analyze logical holes in both the accusation and the defense.Unfortunately, I haven't seen a whole lot of reasoning to criticize between you and Snakecatlady other than your interpretation of Kyrie Eleison's comments. Which, I might add, I discussed at length why I disagreed with.

That's all fair, although I'd argue that my reasons for voting for you again were perfectly clear when I voted: I thought you were suspicious on day 1, and other factors changed my mind. But as the game has gone on you've done very little to convince me you're innocent, and taken a few actions (summarized above) which make me worry you aren't.Well, let's look at what you find suspicious about me in detail. You were suspicious of me on Day One because you found that I participated too much. Okay... so let's look at people who are dead. NAF and dnooman were also high contributors. They are confirmed town. So what does this mean? You seem to be arguing that you are basing your suspicions of me on activities in Day One. So, who else are you suspicious of from Day One because of that same criteria? I don't seem to be seeing that from you.

Yes, I am a bit alarmed at two votes. I'm a little alarmed because I feel we're completely letting the Mafia run the game and I'm being pinpointed based on Kyrie Eleison and I having mutual distrust from the get-go, which was known to Mafia when they night killed him. We are letting ourselves use bad reasoning because we are alarmed in general that we lost the Detective and we are grasping at straws.

And so I might be paranoid, but your response is so indirect (yea, I might be scum. But other people might be too. Think about THAT!)Your suspicion of me is indirect as well.

and you follow it up with that last paragraph which comes off as stunningly insincere to me: it looks like you're making a particular point of looking for suspicious activity, so we'll notice. And the only ones who would have a reason to do that would be scum.Please. CaerieD just posted an equivalent statement saying she needed to go back over the thread before commenting. I wanted to get my two cents in before we started a huge bandwagon, but I know, unfortunately, I don't have a lot of other people that I'm suspicious of. I have few suspicions -- unlike your characterization that I am trying desperately to scapegoat someone. Who would be most easily scapegoated? Projammer, who frankly I don't feel (at the present time) is anything but a Do-Gooder as he claims.

I'm not anywhere near convinced you're guilty, and in fact I'd say I'm only 40% convinced. But I just wanted to mention how many alarm bells your response raises for me. ^^Frankly, I'm equally concerned about your response, and Snakecatlady's as well:

fluiddruid , I don't really see how you can classify yourself as "one of the more active posters" when you have even less posts than I do and I have been accused of not participating enough. You might want to come up with some better arguments because that one isn't working.You have only a few posts more than I do (you're 6th in post count among the living; I'm 8th). I didn't participate as much in Day Two due to some real life considerations. But, I think if you put your own posts to scrutiny, you can't claim that you have more substance. I'm sorry, but it's the truth. Your posts are short and, prior to late in Day Two, I argue that they were not very substantial. I feel you're participating more, and that's good - but whether that's because you're just inexperienced and trying to join in more, or because you were criticized and trying to save your neck, I'm not sure.

In going back through posts, Kyrie Eleison actually seems to put a lot of suspicion on Omi no Kami on Day One - more than I remembered. He seems a very likely candidate for investigation, too. This makes me less likely to suspect you, Omi, since it only makes sense that if he did investigate you, he would have posted something about it on Day Two (even just a little). Still, it's hard to know at this point. I wish we had more days of investigations to work with. Yet, you didn't give a final vote last day... so I'm concerned.

So who to vote for if not me, and maybe not Projammer? Frankly, I think the answer to our suspicions lies in the votes.

Final Vote Count

5 -- Projammer (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, Rachm Qoch, dnooman)
5 -- dnooman (Lightnin', DiggitCamara, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts, fluiddruid)
2 -- fluiddruid (SnakesCatLady, Kyrie Eleison)
2 -- No Lynch (Projammer, CaerieD)
1 -- CaerieD (Blaster Master)
1 -- SnakesCatLady (Lemur866)

I am extremely concerned about the No Lynch votes here. This to me is the most compelling evidence about Projammer, but, I'm not sure. He was under lynching pressure. CaerieD though? I'm concerned. We shouldn't be voting no lynch. "Throwing your vote away" should be considered a possible scum tell.

What if I'm right and Projammer was town? This means that Mafia would have known that both candidates were town, so they would have had a reason to hide their votes!

CaerieD (voted no lynch), Lemur866, Blaster Master, Projammer and SnakesCatLady - and Omi no Kami, you did not even vote (did I miss other non voters?) - I would like to hear a lot more from you guys. It seems likely that some of you (though of course not all) are Mafia if Projammer is town. If he's not, of course, then of course we should look more at those who voted for dnooman (myself included).

So, for me, it comes down to - is Projammer town?

nesta

05-01-2007, 10:24 AM

Bah. Four townies dead, including our Detective. I hope we can turn this around.

Based on what others have quoted from Kyrie, I'm inclined to believe that he investigated fluiddruid and she came back Mafia. I really hope that's the case, because at least we won't have lost our Detective for nothing.

I'm still highly suspicious of Projammer. His role-claim is unverifiable and if true rendered his role useless. I don't buy it, though.

I'm holding off on voting until I get a chance to review the thread with Kyrie's and dnooman's confirmed status in mind, but if I had to vote right now it would be for fluiddruid, and then Projammer tomorrow.

Lightnin'

05-01-2007, 10:38 AM

I'm inclined to suspect Projammer, myself.

There's more than one Do-gooder, correct? Two, right? Therefore his claim of being a Do-gooder is perfectly safe- since nobody knows who anyone else is, then nobody can say, "Uh, no you're not- *I* am."

It's also a safe claim in that it's a power role, albeit a relatively minor one. Townies would want to keep the Do-gooders alive on the offchance that the Scum will try to recruit them.

Also, there's no real purpose in outing yourself as a Do-gooder. All it does is keep the Scum from trying to recruit you, as they know whether you're Town or not. In other words, outing yourself as Do-gooder doesn't help the town in any way- it only helps Scum.

I'm not going to vote to lynch Projammer right now, simply because my track record's been so bad lately. I'm keepin' my eye on him, though.

SnakesCatLady

05-01-2007, 10:50 AM

Lightnin', I agree with you that Projammer is not clear of suspicion. My concern is that, if he is town, the scum didn't off him because they know that will make us more suspicious of him - thereby taking our energy from looking at scum.

Does that make any sense? Or am I just over-rationalizing?

CaerieD

05-01-2007, 11:12 AM

I'm not comfortable making any major accusations just yet, since I'd like to review the thread in closer detail to figure out what I think of the potential breadcrumbs, but I'm responding now since I see some people are thinking I came across scummy for voting no lynch last time around.

I thought I explained my reasons for doing so well enough before, but I'll explain them again. dnooman had given me some doubt and the behavior of a few others made me think we had scum trying to orchestrate a day kill. I'm particularly suspicious of Rachm Qoch's behavior at that point. Since I was going to be gone for the entire day due to RL obligations and I felt like some manipulation of the bandwagons was going on, I voted for no lynch. I was hoping others might follow suit. You're honestly telling me that offing dnooman was preferable to not having a lynch on Day 2? Simple math here: One night kill of a townie versus a night kill and a day kill of townies. Since the whole tie seemed fishy to me, I didn't want to vote for Projammer either. I was trying to remove myself from the whole sticky mess.

I came back in the evening, just before that Day was over, and saw nothing much had changed. No new information to allow me to decide who to vote for, so I stuck with my thrown away vote.

If somebody wants to level the FOS against me because I voted against lynching a townie, be my guest. Scum would have kept the vote to ensure that dnooman died, rather than leaving it to a coin toss, but clearly, not offing my fellow Citizens is a scum tell. :rolleyes:

Lemur866

05-01-2007, 11:16 AM

OK, let's consider that Kyrie fingers fluiddruid, and winds up dead. First, I can't believe the scum knew Kyrie was the detective. Not enough to go on. But consider the scenario. The scum know Kyrie fingered fluiddruid. Kyrie ends up dead. Suspicion falls on fluiddruid. We lynch fluiddruid. Just like they wanted us to. Of course, they knew we'd know this...crap. I'm not going to defend fluiddruid too much, just point out that the scum are trying to confuse us. It's a huge FOS on fluiddruid...but if we go with it and lynch her it means we're doing what the scum expect. It might be worth lynching fluiddruid just to verify her status, but the strategy of lynching players who were fingered by murder victims has the obvious flaw that the scum can always find someone who fingered a townie and murder them and therefore point the finger at an innocent person.

I agree that Projammer's "Do-Gooder" role claim stinks. I have to imagine it's either true or he's scum, the other alternatives don't make any sense. But as Blaster Master lays out, it's a worthless play if Projammer is town. But of course, Projammer knows he's clean, so he's gonna try to save his own neck, even if logically a "Do-Gooder" role claim is irrelevant. But this makes Projammer more likely to be scum. I don't know if he's over the 50% suspicion level for me yet, but he's getting close. I couldn't vote for him last time, but this time I wouldn't mind.

And I want to drag Lightnin' back into the spotlight. He was dnooman's prime suspect. Now, dnooman didn't have any more knowledge than the rest of us...but we now know his arguments were sincere. Lightning has dropped off the list of suspects, but the revelation of dnooman's town status bumps him up a few more notches.

It just seems to me that the strategy of targeting the "most suspicious" people is failing, because the scum are making an effort not to act suspicious. So the least suspicious people need to get their turn in the spotlight. I'm not talking about people you're inclined to trust, I'm talking about people you have absolutely no feeling about either way. These are the people we should take a look at.

Millit the Frail

05-01-2007, 11:27 AM

OK, let's consider that Kyrie fingers fluiddruid, and winds up dead. First, I can't believe the scum knew Kyrie was the detective. Not enough to go on. But consider the scenario. The scum know Kyrie fingered fluiddruid. Kyrie ends up dead. Suspicion falls on fluiddruid. We lynch fluiddruid. Just like they wanted us to. Of course, they knew we'd know this...crap. I'm not going to defend fluiddruid too much, just point out that the scum are trying to confuse us. It's a huge FOS on fluiddruid...but if we go with it and lynch her it means we're doing what the scum expect. It might be worth lynching fluiddruid just to verify her status, but the strategy of lynching players who were fingered by murder victims has the obvious flaw that the scum can always find someone who fingered a townie and murder them and therefore point the finger at an innocent person.

Bingo. It looks like the scum took their time. Say that the Mafia didn't know that they had the Detective. They just wanted to kill a townie. How would they go about choosing which one to kill, al else being equal? Why Kyrie Eleison? If I were Mafia, at this point in the game, I'd kill someone who had FOSed, or voted for, very obviously, the wrong person. I would know that the town would jump right on that person and lynch away. And look--that's exactly what's happening. There's a bandwagon on fluiddruid just a few hours past dawn. The Mafia don't even have to vote for her, the town's going to do the dirty work.

Of course, they can change it up and do things the other way tomorrow night, so that we can't keep using this reasoning to root them out. I fully expect that they are/were planning to go after someone who really does have it out for Mafia the next time.

fluiddruid

05-01-2007, 11:30 AM

t might be worth lynching fluiddruid just to verify her statusI appreciate your defense, Lemur, but this isn't good logic to me. We need to be lynching scum. I'd really like to know where Projammer falls out, just as I'm sure many people would like to know the same about me, and possibly Lightnin and a few other "usual suspects". But, if you lynch me, lynch me because you truly think I'm scum.

Since the whole tie seemed fishy to me, I didn't want to vote for Projammer either. I was trying to remove myself from the whole sticky mess.Yet, surely you can see why this can be a scum tell. Like I said, if I'm right and Projammer is town, it makes the most sense that Mafia members would avoid voting - especially tiebreaking - as not to incriminate themselves. I'm not saying that's necessarily the case for you personally, but a "no lynch" vote is definitely something to think about regardless of Projammer's status, and particularly if he's Town.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

05-01-2007, 11:41 AM

Two of the players on my scum list were some of the first to say that getting the Detective was a "lucky break," right after I posted that the "anti-FOS" may have been the tip-off.

So you interpreted that coincidence as reinforcing your choices for your scum list? If that is the case, then that is extremely weak. If that isn't the case, why even make this statement?

Look at how much how much discussion we've already had during this day about what could or could not be Kyrie's breadcrumb. The scum night discussion would be similar, I would expect, with smaller numbers but also with the knowledge of who is and isn't town. If they were trying to target the Detective, they would've done so with an analysis of all of the possible breadcrumb-candidate-posts left by all town players during day two. That, my friend is lucky.

Back to catching up on the thread...

Lemur866

05-01-2007, 11:42 AM

That's the thing. The mafia don't want their fingers on a town lynch. And they KNOW who's town. So when there's a bandwagon to lynch a townie, they stay far away and let the town do the dirty work, and then all the townies who lynched a townie get FOS'd.

The only time this doesn't apply is if a mafiosi is a leading candidate. Then it gets trickier, because they don't want fingerprints defending a mafiosi, but they don't want fingerprints lynching a townie either. For a slam dunk mafia lynch where there's no chance to derail it, they'll join in and turn on their buddy to make sure they get an anti-scum vote on their record. But what about where there are two candidates...like last time? We know dnooman was town, but we don't know Projammer's status. Was the dnooman lynch caused because mafia were trying to tip the lynch away from Projammer, or were both townies and the scum were happy either way?

CaerieD

05-01-2007, 12:06 PM

Yet, surely you can see why this can be a scum tell. Like I said, if I'm right and Projammer is town, it makes the most sense that Mafia members would avoid voting - especially tiebreaking - as not to incriminate themselves. I'm not saying that's necessarily the case for you personally, but a "no lynch" vote is definitely something to think about regardless of Projammer's status, and particularly if he's Town.

I can see how a Mafiosa would want to avoid voting for townies in a situation like that. I can see how a Mafiosa wouldn't want to give a tiebreaking vote. What I don't see is why a Mafiosa would, upon reading a very good defense, decide to unvote a townie when things are that close, thereby increasing the odds of that townie not dying. I didn't just refrain from voting, I'd already cast my vote for dnooman and then recanted it. It was by changing my vote that I drew attention to myself, after all. There were a whole bunch of people on either side of that tie. Any scum would have been quite safely insulated by the mislead townies and they knew it.

I agree with Lemur866's argument about the spotlight. The Mafia are, for the most part, going to be trying to avoid notice. This isn't a case of "lynch the lurker", but rather we should be looking at the people that have done everything to avoid suspicion and to avoid drawing attention to themselves.

fluiddruid

05-01-2007, 12:10 PM

That's a fair point, CaerieD, and I appreciate your explanation of your no-lynch vote.

Lemur866

05-01-2007, 12:19 PM

Except it doesn't wash. Suppose CaerieD is mafia. We know dnooman was town. If Projammer is mafia then CaeieD's vote change doesn't make sense. But if Projammer was town, then CaerieD not voting against either makes her look innocent. But that's crap, because "not voting against townies" is not the mark of a townie, it's the mark of a careful mafiosi. Of course, we've got too small a sample size to work with here, but anyone who NEVER votes against townies is suspicious because...only the scum know who the townies are.

Unvoting dnooman without voting for anyone else is a way to get her fingerprints off a town lynch. Calling attention to herself this way is a bad move for a scum, but we can't assume perfect play from anyone.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

05-01-2007, 12:34 PM

Millit the Frail

05-01-2007, 12:50 PM

Marinating together in my Pool of Shame are:

Projammer
fluiddruid
CaerieD

I still don't buy Projammer's roleclaim, and nothing I've seen since I originally cast my vote for him yester-game-day has improved his stance with me. If anything his "no lynch" vote degraded it even further.

The Kyrie breadcrumb factor is too uncertain for me to use it as kindling to light a fire under anyone's butt, at least for now, but it is enough to land fluiddruid in my POS.

CaerieD's "no lynch" also smells fishy to me. "No lynch" votes, or not being around to vote, are like strategic black holes when trying to comb through voting histories in hindsight, regardless of how eloquently rationalized they are.

OK, you look less suspicious now. I'll have to go back and see why I suspected you. If I either can't find it (d'oh) or you can defend it, you're off my scum list.

By the way, we're all pretty involved at this point, save one or two. CaerieD, what do you mean by "people who have been trying not to draw attention to themselves?" It's another catch-22. Any Mafia can do something really bold (and really anti-town) and then say, "Hey, look, would I be so bold if I were Mafia?" I don't think that argument holds weight for long.

Blaster Master

05-01-2007, 01:33 PM

In light of the discussion above, that fluiddruid may have been framed, I want to give my vote further consideration and I will unvote fluiddruid for now, and I'll make it a strong FOS fluiddruid instead.

By the way, we're all pretty involved at this point, save one or two. CaerieD, what do you mean by "people who have been trying not to draw attention to themselves?" It's another catch-22. Any Mafia can do something really bold (and really anti-town) and then say, "Hey, look, would I be so bold if I were Mafia?" I don't think that argument holds weight for long.
Absolutely, the bottom line is, no matter what we start looking for, the mafia will be one step ahead of us. We start looking for lurkers or loud-mouths, they stay near the middle of the post list. If we start looking for people not drawing attention to themselves, they start acting boldly pro-town. They see the exact same discussion as the rest of us.

The other problem is, if we start looking at people who are trying not to draw attention to themselves, it's entirely possible that we could accidently force a role claim out of the doctor or the night watchman, or a low-lying masons. That's almost as bad as getting a townie lynched.

What we need to do is figure out how the mafia players are thinking in a way that can't be fixed. Unlike "they're not drawing attention to themselves" or "they're lurking" which can both be fixed fairly quickly, we need to find a tell that can't be fixed. Voting patterns can't be undone neither can FOSs or "here's some horribly anti-town indefensible strategy that looks really good on a cursory view".

... if only it weren't as likely that projammer is a breadcrumb, because he's done it all, including a shady, unprovable role claim, and a no-lynch vote. That said I'm slightly more inclined to believe CaerieD's no-lynch vote, only because she's provided a reasoned (although mostly after the fact) defense, still, until either her or projammer is proven town, I'm still not liking that kind of vote because I strongly disagree with the logic, so I'm also going go ahead and FOS CaerieD as well.

That said, if you don't agree with the top few lynch candidates, I think you're better off just voting for who you REALLY think is scum, even if they have no chance at that point. If you're going to be out of town (like I was), pick your best candidate, or simply unvote... who knows, there might be a last minute switch with a role claim or whatever. I just can't see how a no-lynch is ever pro-town.

I've got to have at least one scum between the three of them, right?

SnakesCatLady

05-01-2007, 01:56 PM

I agree with you, BlasterMaster, that it is never a good thing to vote "no lynch" or not vote. If you do either of those things and you are on the mafia menu for that night, you have not helped the town at all. You may have improved your own chances of living another night, but you haven't done the town a favor - and the goal is for the town to win, right?

That is why I have voted even when I changed my mind about voting for someone who had the potential to be lynched - Projammer - I still voted for someone else who had pinged my scumdar. At least it might have the effect of making them explain the things I thought were suspicious.

I'm not quite as suspicious of the "no lynch" voters as I am of the two players who didn't vote at all. I think there may be a (scummy) reason they are lying so low. Those who voted "no lynch" had to know that attention would be paid to that.

Idle Thoughts

05-01-2007, 03:15 PM

If somebody wants to level the FOS against me because I voted against lynching a townie, be my guest. Scum would have kept the vote to ensure that dnooman died, rather than leaving it to a coin toss, but clearly, not offing my fellow Citizens is a scum tell. :rolleyes:

Snipping and bolding mine.

That seems really black and white of you. Look at me on day one. I had originally voted for Lightnin' and a score of others then rushed in and voted for him. Alarmed at the seeming bandwagon, I then changed my vote to someone I was also suspicious of (well, as suspicious as one can be of someone else on the first day) who didn't have any votes and was in no danger of being lynched.

Why, then, didn't you just do this? Seems to me at least you'd be putting a vote/suspicion out there so if you ever get killed at night or lynched in the day players can look back over your posts to see who you had fingers on.

The bolded part really strikes me as odd since, really, you don't KNOW who is town or scum. Why assume who you're voting for is, then? And again, if you did--and if you didn't want to be a part of lynching a person you thought of or had reserves of being pro-town--then why not cast a vote for someone else on your suspicions list? Makes no sense.

So yeah, I will place my personal FOS on you still.

Rachm Qoch

05-01-2007, 03:19 PM

I'm not comfortable making any major accusations just yet, since I'd like to review the thread in closer detail to figure out what I think of the potential breadcrumbs, but I'm responding now since I see some people are thinking I came across scummy for voting no lynch last time around.

I thought I explained my reasons for doing so well enough before, but I'll explain them again. dnooman had given me some doubt and the behavior of a few others made me think we had scum trying to orchestrate a day kill. I'm particularly suspicious of Rachm Qoch's behavior at that point.

I don't follow your reasoning here. I expressed my concern that dnooman might not be mafia well before you got off the dnooman bandwagon. At the time, he was already up 5-4 over Projammer. If I were mafia trying to get a townie lynched, I could have simply and inconspicuously voted for another player with few or no votes, and let things stand as they were. Which, I might add, would have guaranteed dnooman's death, as it wouldn't have gone to a tiebreaker. With my name nowhere near any of the action no less.

If you're talking about my suspicion of Projammer, let me remind you that you expressed your suspicion of Projammer way ahead of me on day one before he was even on my radar, and then proceeded to vote for him on day two. Are you now saying that you were convinced Projammer was town sometime before he claimed as Do-Gooder? Because that's not the impression I had from reading your posts.

Idle Thoughts

05-01-2007, 03:21 PM

Bingo. It looks like the scum took their time. Say that the Mafia didn't know that they had the Detective. They just wanted to kill a townie. How would they go about choosing which one to kill, al else being equal? Why Kyrie Eleison? If I were Mafia, at this point in the game, I'd kill someone who had FOSed, or voted for, very obviously, the wrong person. I would know that the town would jump right on that person and lynch away. And look--that's exactly what's happening. There's a bandwagon on fluiddruid just a few hours past dawn. The Mafia don't even have to vote for her, the town's going to do the dirty work.

Of course, they can change it up and do things the other way tomorrow night, so that we can't keep using this reasoning to root them out. I fully expect that they are/were planning to go after someone who really does have it out for Mafia the next time.

You and a few others keep saying things like this. That it would be too "obvious" and and a very, very easy tell. That everyone would think that was the case and go for it.

But would it not, if everyone thought it was the most obvious thing and therefore not want to bother with it, become the LEAST LIKELY thing then that you'd expect scum to do?

Really, you have to think of it in a full circle. Yeah, that all really puts heat (or in SnakesCatLady's words "head" ;) ) on fluiddruid and you'd think it would be too obvious. But maybe that's what they want to have the townies think. "Oh gee, that's too obvious, it can't be!" when it fact, it is, because the "Most obvious" thing has now become the "least likely" thing in our minds. And if I were scum, I know I'd want to do the thing I thought was the least likely figured (for town).

Idle Thoughts

05-01-2007, 03:27 PM

In light of the discussion above, that fluiddruid may have been framed, I want to give my vote further consideration and I will unvote fluiddruid for now, and I'll make it a strong FOS fluiddruid instead.

Same here.

I'm really torn here because I have strong suspicions of both fluiddruid and CaerieD..and even though they are both seemingly suspicious of each other in this thread, by their posts, it wouldn't surprise me to find it's just a show and both are scum.

<lots snipped>

That said, if you don't agree with the top few lynch candidates, I think you're better off just voting for who you REALLY think is scum, even if they have no chance at that point. If you're going to be out of town (like I was), pick your best candidate, or simply unvote... who knows, there might be a last minute switch with a role claim or whatever. I just can't see how a no-lynch is ever pro-town.

This makes the most sense and what I was trying to tell CaerieD in my post above. You said it a lot better though.

tirial

05-01-2007, 03:35 PM

The scum know Kyrie fingered fluiddruid. Kyrie ends up dead. Suspicion falls on fluiddruid. We lynch fluiddruid. Just like they wanted us to. Of course, they knew we'd know this...crap. I think those of you discussing whether fluiddruid was framed might want to take a look at Post 819 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8514862&postcount=819) by Kyrie Eleison. Some extracts below.
FWIW, Kyrie spent the day pondering whether he could make some distinction between dnooman and Projammer, both of whom seemed roughly equally likely to be town, or whether to vote for someone he really considered likely to be scum but had no chance of overcoming the momentum already built up against the two of you, or whether to fail to vote altogether.I don't expect that it will become relevant, as it does come a bit late, but on the off-chance, I'd like to say now that I voted for fluiddruid while fully cognizant of the argument that will arise from Rachm's post, quoted here. If Kyrie spent the day pondering whether he could make a distinction between projammer and dnooman, does it sound as if he investigated either the night before? And he seems well aware that his vote for fluiddruid could be challenged and reinforces it.

SnakesCatLady, two players voted for a No Lynch, Projammer and CaerieD.(P845) I did everything I could short of voting for myself. I'm not sure you did. I can't find other posts before this suggesting alternative suspects that you were putting forward or building cases against, and you voted no lynch, not against someone else. Please indicate where you raised your scum suspects.(P911)If somebody wants to level the FOS against me because I voted against lynching a townie, be my guest. Scum would have kept the vote to ensure that dnooman died, rather than leaving it to a coin toss, but clearly, not offing my fellow Citizens is a scum tell.There'd only have moved to protect him if Projammer was scum. Otherwise why care which townie we lynch? They may even have decided protecting one of their own was too much of a risk and left it to the coin toss.

FOS Projammer

So the least suspicious people need to get their turn in the spotlight. I'm not talking about people you're inclined to trust, I'm talking about people you have absolutely no feeling about either way. These are the people we should take a look at.Well, the people I am really not sure of are Millit, SnakesCatLady, you Lemur866, and nesta.

And I'd still rather look at what the Detective may have left for us.

Omi no Kami

05-01-2007, 03:51 PM

This is the type of reasoning that is really not helping Town. I'm suspicious for being enthusiastic, participating, and searching out scum in Day One, but I'm also suspicious for not being enthusiastic enough about searching out scum in Day Two, in your estimation. This strikes me as a double-edged sword; essentially, no matter what I do. it's suspicious to you. This strikes me as suspiciously bad reasoning at best.

Please. Either I'm significantly less clear in my posts than I suspected, or you're making extremely inaccurate generalizations; I didn't say I was suspicious of you because of your enthusiasm and because of your lack thereof, I said that your sudden change in behavior had me worried.

Unfortunately, I haven't seen a whole lot of reasoning to criticize between you and Snakecatlady

...what does she have to do with anything? Are you talking about wanting more to criticize about us in general, or about our specific accusations towards you? (Which, as I've repeatedly stated, aren't that strong to begin with. But I for one haven't seen a whole lot to convince me otherwise.)

In any case, the burden of proof isn't on me; it's on the group as a whole. The voting means that we reach a consensus before doing anything.

Well, let's look at what you find suspicious about me in detail. You were suspicious of me on Day One because you found that I participated too much. Okay... so let's look at people who are dead. NAF and dnooman were also high contributors. They are confirmed town. So what does this mean? You seem to be arguing that you are basing your suspicions of me on activities in Day One. So, who else are you suspicious of from Day One because of that same criteria? I don't seem to be seeing that from you.

Like I mentioned above, you're mischaracterizing what was said. I explicitly stated that I was suspicious because, unlike the other heavy posters on day 1, most of whom were doing useful analysis, you insisted on questioning extremely simple decisions made by a lot of people. This looked to me like probing either way, whether it's for scum or power roles I have no clue.

Frankly, I'm equally concerned about your response, and Snakecatlady's as well:

You have only a few posts more than I do (you're 6th in post count among the living; I'm 8th). I didn't participate as much in Day Two due to some real life considerations. But, I think if you put your own posts to scrutiny, you can't claim that you have more substance. I'm sorry, but it's the truth. Your posts are short and, prior to late in Day Two, I argue that they were not very substantial. I feel you're participating more, and that's good - but whether that's because you're just inexperienced and trying to join in more, or because you were criticized and trying to save your neck, I'm not sure.

...do you even read the thread? Post counts are extremely poor indicators of anything other than general participation, and I'm guessing that you dislike my posts primarily because I don't accuse anyone. I've already discussed not having enough evidence to feel confident making firm accusations, so what I have been doing is saying whatever occurs to me at the moment, which tends to be general strategy for both sides.

Oh, and like I mentioned on day 2, I was writing papers for these last two weeks. So please keep your bulls*t conjecture to yourself until you've at least read the thread.

In going back through posts, Kyrie Eleison actually seems to put a lot of suspicion on Omi no Kami on Day One - more than I remembered. He seems a very likely candidate for investigation, too. This makes me less likely to suspect you, Omi, since it only makes sense that if he did investigate you, he would have posted something about it on Day Two (even just a little). Still, it's hard to know at this point. I wish we had more days of investigations to work with. Yet, you didn't give a final vote last day... so I'm concerned.

Ok, this is just getting silly. We were suspicious of each other on day 1, but Kyrie left absolutely no breadcrumbs regarding me that I can discover. So I'm guessing it's fairly unlikely that I was the target of an investigation.

Final Vote Count

5 -- Projammer (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, Rachm Qoch, dnooman)
5 -- dnooman (Lightnin', DiggitCamara, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts, fluiddruid)
2 -- fluiddruid (SnakesCatLady, Kyrie Eleison)
2 -- No Lynch (Projammer, CaerieD)
1 -- CaerieD (Blaster Master)
1 -- SnakesCatLady (Lemur866)

I am extremely concerned about the No Lynch votes here. This to me is the most compelling evidence about Projammer, but, I'm not sure. He was under lynching pressure. CaerieD though? I'm concerned. We shouldn't be voting no lynch. "Throwing your vote away" should be considered a possible scum tell. ...
...CaerieD (voted no lynch), Lemur866, Blaster Master, Projammer and SnakesCatLady - and Omi no Kami, you did not even vote (did I miss other non voters?) - I would like to hear a lot more from you guys. It seems likely that some of you (though of course not all) are Mafia if Projammer is town. If he's not, of course, then of course we should look more at those who voted for dnooman (myself included).

So, for me, it comes down to - is Projammer town?
[/QUOTE]

It's hard to say, especially in the light of the detective possibly having investigated him, but I'm not convinced Projammer is guilty. Like I've said before on day 2, I didn't vote because I didn't see any compelling evidence one way or the other.

And I really have to say, it may just be my paranoia, but this "Let's accuse the people who accuse me by mischaracterizing their comments" crap really isn't doing a lot to instill confidence about your innocence. :rolleyes:

Anyway. I'm not convinced about either of you, like I've said before. It's seeming more and more likely that you were framed, but all the obfuscation and "Gee, you must be a newbie for accusing me" bullsh*t doesn't hang well.

Gadarene

05-01-2007, 03:54 PM

Nine votes to lynch, by the way. (I almost typed "lunch.") I'll provide an updated vote count when a few more people have voted.

Hal Briston

05-01-2007, 03:55 PM

First off, my apologies for being rather quiet the past few (real world) days -- work and family has been hectic, so I've just been popping onto the board for a few minutes here and there. No real time to catch up.

I've just done a quick readthrough of the day's events, and have come to one major conclusion: The more sure I am that someone is scum, the more I realize how bad I am at scumdetecting.

With that in mind, here's the read I'm getting:

Heavy Suspicion:
Projammer
fluiddruid

Suspicion:
CaerieD
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

Slight Suspicion:
Rachm Qoch
Idle Thoughts
nesta
Millit the Frail
Lightnin'

Not Really Sure:
Omi No Kami
tirial
DiggitCamara
SnakesCatLady
Lemur866

Probably Town:
Blaster Master

Idle Thoughts

05-01-2007, 04:01 PM

<snip>

I've just done a quick readthrough of the day's events, and have come to one major conclusion: The more sure I am that someone is scum, the more I realize how bad I am at scumdetecting.

<snipped list>

Yeah, that happened with me too in the case of dnooman. This is why, although the top player on my suspicion list is fluiddruid, I'm holding back voting for her for now. I think I'll probably wind up voting eventually, though..but may change it pending further bandwagoning.

Lightnin'

05-01-2007, 04:06 PM

As loathe as I am to jump on a bandwagon, I'm going to have to vote Projammer. I stated my suspicions earlier, but no subsequent posts have changed my mind... so I'm going to go ahead and vote.

As an aside, has Town ever won one of these things without getting lucky right at the beginning? I'm seeing a huge advantage for the Mafia. It seems to me that, given the odds, strict random voting by the Scum would result in a Mafia win, since the Townies would never be able to figure out the pattern... at least until the odds reach 50-50 on a choice between Town and Scum, at which point organized voting would take out the rest of the townies.

Of course, I haven't read over the other threads too much.

tirial

05-01-2007, 04:08 PM

Idle Thoughts

05-01-2007, 04:14 PM

Out of curiosity, what bandwagon? I think you are the first person to vote for Projammer on Day 3.

Huh.

Lightnin'

05-01-2007, 04:15 PM

Out of curiosity, what bandwagon? I think you are the first person to vote for Projammer on Day 3.

Bah, I completely misread Gadarene's post. I thought that there were nine posts to lynch Projammer, but I see that it was just a clarification of the number of votes necessary to lynch.

Well, I'll let it stand, anyway. As I said, I haven't seen anything which has allayed my suspicions of Projammer, so unless something else comes up which does, I'm not going to unvote.

SnakesCatLady

05-01-2007, 04:22 PM

Lightnin', I misread it also and was frantically going through my notes trying to find nine votes!

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

05-01-2007, 04:23 PM

With that in mind, here's the read I'm getting:

Heavy Suspicion:
Projammer
fluiddruid

Suspicion:
CaerieD
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

<snippage>

Since you're not voting for me or FOS'ing me, I'm not too worried. But I just want to point out that the only difference between the top of your list and my list is that I'm not at the bottom of my own list, for what it is worth.

Hal Briston

05-01-2007, 04:27 PM

Bah, I completely misread Gadarene's post. I thought that there were nine posts to lynch Projammer, but I see that it was just a clarification of the number of votes necessary to lynch.So, you were thinking that there were already nine votes on the table for Projammer, and you were throwing in the tenth, damning vote? There's something to be read there. I just don't know what it is.

Lightnin'

05-01-2007, 04:31 PM

So, you were thinking that there were already nine votes on the table for Projammer, and you were throwing in the tenth, damning vote? There's something to be read there. I just don't know what it is.

Well, as I said, he was already at the top of my suspicion list. If my vote was the final vote, and nobody else had presented themselves as replacing him on my suspicion list, then it would've been silly to abstain from voting.

tirial

05-01-2007, 04:37 PM

Well, as I said, he was already at the top of my suspicion list. If my vote was the final vote, and nobody else had presented themselves as replacing him on my suspicion list, then it would've been silly to abstain from voting.

What - even with the debate on whether fluiddruid was Kyrie's breadcrumb going on? (And I think it is likely that he was, the mafia didn't realise Kyrie was the detective - or they'd have recruited him - and killed him for putting together a case against one of them, without realising they were giving us a lead.)

You would deliberately try and end a day early, when the town only gains from longer days?

FOS Lightnin'

Lightnin'

05-01-2007, 04:42 PM

You would deliberately try and end a day early, when the town only gains from longer days?

Why? If there's such overwhelming suspicion on my first choice (as both I and SnakesCatLady interpreted Gadarene's post), how does extending the day help the town? If there was already nine votes for the person I'm most suspicious of, dragging the day out would be counterproductive.

FOS Lightnin'

Jeez, didn't see that coming. :rolleyes:

Idle Thoughts

05-01-2007, 04:46 PM

I hesitate to make a list like dnooman did and Hal did just now because I feel it gives a slight advantage to scum to read what people on the other team think.

While I don't mind saying who I'm more or most suspicious of, I just feel that saying who I (or anyone) trusts is sort like opening the door for a person who may be scum being able to use the trust or lack of suspicion against you somehow or in some way.

So for now, here are only the people I'm most suspicious of:

Fluiddruid and CaerieD for reasons found in many posts by myself in this topic (most recently in posts 880 and 924, but they stem back to day one and two).

Millit the Frail, for many various reasons I've given in posts in here (Like in 483 and 307).

And more and more of tirial, who doesn't have any posts I can link to that really makes a good case for them being scum but just, having read his/her posts, gives off such a strong vibe to me for reasons I can't explain but that make sense to me.

As for a fifth mafia member (and if I had to guess at how many there were, I'd say about five or six based on how many total players there were, NOT including the recruit if and when they join their ranks), I don't know. I've got some people I was more suspicious of earlier in the game but that have faded with time. Still, some are on the radar. I'll hold off saying anything for now.

SnakesCatLady

05-01-2007, 04:53 PM

Please remember, Idle Thoughts, that if the mafia should choose to have you for a midnight snack and you haven't told us your suspicions you aren't any help to the town.

Or do you not want to be a help to the town? Bwhhhahhhahhha!

tirial

05-01-2007, 04:58 PM

Why? If there's such overwhelming suspicion on my first choice (as both I and SnakesCatLady interpreted Gadarene's post), how does extending the day help the town?You know, for little things like letting us decide whether fluidruid was Kyrie's crumb, investigate all the options and make sure most posters can read the whole thread. Just the minor things the give the town an advantage. Or did you hop on the bandwagon without reading the posts for today?

And Idle Thoughts, as mentioned I am female. I'm also not at my best at 11:00 at night.

Idle Thoughts

05-01-2007, 05:00 PM

Well, two things. :p First, I just about did tell you all I suspected of being scum..at least my main concerns.

Secondly, you never really know. They COULD kill me off because I'm all wrong with my guesses and have everyone then think that I was smitten because I was getting too close to something or hitting dead on. It'd be smart because everyone might be gunning for and go against the (falsely accused) people I mentioned.

Just really never know in this game unless you can correctly hit upon what people would do if they were scum.

But before the next night (or if I happen to get a load of votes that seal my face this day) I'll list those last few suspicions I have.

Idle Thoughts

05-01-2007, 05:01 PM

And Idle Thoughts, as mentioned I am female. I'm also not at my best at 11:00 at night.

Who is? :)

And sorry, I didn't catch that before. :o

fluiddruid

05-01-2007, 05:11 PM

Please. Either I'm significantly less clear in my posts than I suspected, or you're making extremely inaccurate generalizations; I didn't say I was suspicious of you because of your enthusiasm and because of your lack thereof, I said that your sudden change in behavior had me worried.Sorry, that wasn't clear to me based on your post. Like I said, there were real life circumstances involved. I just don't think you would think this change was an indicator if there weren't other reasons. I'd like to hash out what those reasons are.

...what does she have to do with anything? Are you talking about wanting more to criticize about us in general, or about our specific accusations towards you? (Which, as I've repeatedly stated, aren't that strong to begin with. But I for one haven't seen a whole lot to convince me otherwise.)Well, exactly my point. You're criticizing me for not giving enough reasoned discussion of why I disagree with your suspicions, yet at the same time, you have little basis for them. So what's for me to criticize?

To clarify, I don't blame you for not having a lot to go on. We don't, in my opinion, at this point. I'm just trying to explain myself, and trying to understand why you feel my arguments are weak in responding to your suspicions when the suspicions themselves are, in my opinion, also weak.

[qupte]In any case, the burden of proof isn't on me; it's on the group as a whole. The voting means that we reach a consensus before doing anything.[/quote]No, but the burden of proof is on you to support your arguments. This is the point. I'm not asking you to be my Grand Inquistor - obviously, I'd quite rather you weren't! - but every one of us needs to be accountable for what we say. Since you and Snakecatlady where the initial ones who voted for me, I felt a personal response was appropriate. After all, if I do get lynched, should I turn out to be town, people are going to want to look at who voted for me.

Like I mentioned above, you're mischaracterizing what was said. I explicitly stated that I was suspicious because, unlike the other heavy posters on day 1, most of whom were doing useful analysis, you insisted on questioning extremely simple decisions made by a lot of people. This looked to me like probing either way, whether it's for scum or power roles I have no clue.I guess I wouldn't characterize what I said that way. On Day One, you don't have a lot to go on, but ultimately the reasoning should be sound. I'd rather dispute bad reasoning than do nothing, if I have no good information to give -- and, sometimes in this game, you don't.

...do you even read the thread? Post counts are extremely poor indicators of anything other than general participation, and I'm guessing that you dislike my posts primarily because I don't accuse anyone. Actually, that part of my post was intended to be targeted at Snakecatlady's arguments.

I agree. I don't think post count is a good indicator. What I do think is that the players who have low counts are receiving an advantage, as those with mid to hig post counts are receiving undue suspicion. The more you say, the more can be interpreted wrongly as a "scum tell" even when it's not. Like I said, we need to look at the no-votes and the no-lynch-votes very strongly.

I'm not going to say "lynch lurkers"; I'm saying hold people accountable. The failure to break a tie on the last round is significant, though what it means is up for debate. I think we've focused a lot on Kyrie Eleison's possible breadcrumbs - rightly so, to a point - but we've ignored the votes and the arguments as to what ended up getting a townie lynched yesterday, largely, in the course of this discussion. This should be examined.

In the end, it is in the best interests of Town to hold people accountable to their actions.

Ok, this is just getting silly. We were suspicious of each other on day 1, but Kyrie left absolutely no breadcrumbs regarding me that I can discover. So I'm guessing it's fairly unlikely that I was the target of an investigation. You're making some assumptions here. I agree you're not a likely candidate, but again, deconstructing the argument that I was somehow the only possible subject is my interest, because (as I'm sure you gather) I'm emphatically in disagreement with the assumptions that follow.

Given that Kyrie Eleison only posted suspicion of me late in the day, and only in response to Snakecatlady, should be considered. Furthermore he had no special reason to assume he'd be killed, at least that I know of. I don't see any "detective tells" to speak of. I would have thought he would have been smart not to start posting his breadcrumbs only very late in the day. Again, it's frustrating because we really only have the single day to work with.

It's hard to say, especially in the light of the detective possibly having investigated him, but I'm not convinced Projammer is guilty. Like I've said before on day 2, I didn't vote because I didn't see any compelling evidence one way or the other.I'm not convinced either. I do believe that it would tell us a great deal about Day One and Day Two's votes, and what they mean, if we knew for sure, but even to save myself I'm not sure at this point if I want to vote for the guy. I'm not convinced. Would his death tell the town more than mine? Possibly. But at this point I don't think we can risk another town death. We've already had four down and, if Projammer is to be believed, one Do-Gooder outed.

And I really have to say, it may just be my paranoia, but this "Let's accuse the people who accuse me by mischaracterizing their comments" crap really isn't doing a lot to instill confidence about your innocence. :rolleyes: Challenging your arguments does not equal intentionally mischaracterizing them. You've been quick to assume that but frankly your suspicions are unclear to you, how are they supposed to be clearer to me?

Anyway. I'm not convinced about either of you, like I've said before. It's seeming more and more likely that you were framed, but all the obfuscation and "Gee, you must be a newbie for accusing me" bullsh*t doesn't hang well.Uh, where did I say you were a newbie? This is a complete mischaracterization of what I said, for one who feels so compelled to suspect me for "mischaracterizing" you! :)

In any case, our suspicions have been somewhat limited to those who racked up votes on Day Two. Again, I feel we need to strongly consider the votes in place. I'm sure you disagree, given that you did not vote at all. But, my opinion is that nonvotes or no-lynch votes are not in the interests of Town.

In regards to everyone: I am torn about Projammer. The more I read, the more convinced I may be wrong about him being Town. He's escaped the noose so far but either a lot of people have genuine suspicion, or he's a convenient scapegoat. In any case, the strongest evidence I have is his no lynch vote. Along the same lines I have to be suspicious of him, and any no vote/no lynch/throwaway from last time. Of those, based on what's happened so far today, I'm most strongly suspicious of CaerieD, Projammer, and lemur866, and possibly still you, Omi no Kami... I hope that you're just a passionate townie, and not someone setting me up as a convenient scapegoat.

fluiddruid

05-01-2007, 05:14 PM

Why? If there's such overwhelming suspicion on my first choice (as both I and SnakesCatLady interpreted Gadarene's post), how does extending the day help the town? If there was already nine votes for the person I'm most suspicious of, dragging the day out would be counterproductive.Extending the day to the maximum time is never counterproductive, in my opinion. Why would it be? The more time we have, the more posts we have, the more data we have. Ending the day early is really only ever in the interests of scum.

I'm a bit surprised to see you advocating this point of view, Lightnin'. Rushing a vote is not in our best interests, ever. It makes it that much more difficult to sort out where people stood and it gives much more legitimacy to people who fail to vote at all.

SnakesCatLady

05-01-2007, 05:25 PM

I agree that I don't want the day to end early. I have already cast a vote, but stand ready to change it should I see discussion that makes me doubt my choice. Fluiddruid is not the only person I am suspicious of, just the one I feel most strongly about at the time. If anyone can show me why they think someone else is more likely to be scum I am willing to listen.

Not everyone can get in here as often as I can today; and real life may interfere tomorrow. But I really really really want to emphasize that I believe everyone should vote. Not voting makes people look really suspicious to me.

Lightnin'

05-01-2007, 05:39 PM

I'm a bit surprised to see you advocating this point of view, Lightnin'. Rushing a vote is not in our best interests, ever. It makes it that much more difficult to sort out where people stood and it gives much more legitimacy to people who fail to vote at all.

Good point.

As I said, I was mighty confused by Gadarene's post. From my point of view, I was, indeed, rushing a lynch... on someone I'd already established as my main suspicion. I still haven't seen any evidence which has changed my mind on that. I honestly don't see a good reason for Projammer to claim Do-Gooder status, except to try to avoid a lynching by the town.

Omi no Kami

05-01-2007, 06:18 PM

SnakesCatLady

05-01-2007, 06:36 PM

Gah, now I'm second-guessing myself. Fluid still doesn't sit well with me at all, but I'm gonna unvote for now in light of a rather annoying thought: if this is a conspiracy, who exactly would've started it? As far as I can tell, everyone who has chimed in has reasonably good reasons to have accused he or projammer...

There is only one vote for Projammer today, and that is by Lightnin'. There are two votes currently for fluiddruid, tirial (first) and myself. There were four for fluiddruid but BlasterMaster and yourself have unvoted. So I really don't see a conspiracy yet...

Millit the Frail

05-01-2007, 06:44 PM

I feel more comfortable with lynching fluiddruid after hearing some more arguments. I'm still not completely convinced, but then again, it's impossible to feel 100% sure about anything in this game. How disorienting. :confused:

I'm very glad things slowed down and we had some more back-and-forth talk about the possible breadcrumb, et cetera. It's easier to see where people are in their thinking and to root out their motives when we're overanalyzing everything.

By the way, I hope to God there aren't six Mafia. Six Mafia plus one recruit is way too many for a game this size, if you want to give the town a chance at all! We could be outnumbered, like, tomorrow, if there were seven Mafia at this point. Not good. We really have to get one tonight. I think either fluiddruid or Projammer will be our final choice, based on how things look now. At least one of them has got to be Mafia. I'm almost certain that Projammer is.

Blaster Master

05-01-2007, 07:25 PM

There is only one vote for Projammer today, and that is by Lightnin'. There are two votes currently for fluiddruid, tirial (first) and myself. There were four for fluiddruid but BlasterMaster and yourself have unvoted. So I really don't see a conspiracy yet...

I'm really been thinking about this "conspiracy to frame fluiddruid" of which I'm only becoming more uncertain. That said, I'm not sure if who has voted for her will tell us anything, because we really don't know whether it is a clever bluff by the mafia to frame an innocent townie, a double-bluff to make a member of the mafia look innocent, or is a fabrication of the town's collective imagination.

As I believe was said earlier, it's unlikely the mafia knew Kyrie was the detective, because it's hard for us to find her crumbs even with perfect knowledge. If they did know she was the detective, then they did a VERY bold move knowing what would have been seen as potential breadcrumbs.

Thus, I'm thinking the best way to approach the fluiddruid conspiracy theory is from a completely different angle. Assuming they didn't know Kyrie was the detective, that makes the potential bread crumb useless for this analysis, and we're left with three scenarios:

1) fluiddruid is scum. Mafia consider killing somone, who's general trust AFAICT was somewhere around a big question mark, knowing that it would place more heat on fluiddruid because she was already highly suspected. This is bold, but the more I think about it, the more I'm not sure because fluiddruid is coming across to me more as an frantic townie than a well planned out double bluff, but that could also be part of the plan.

2) fluiddruid is a townie and is being framed. This is an obvious potential mafia ploy to frame a townie who is already highly suspected. This is highly likely, but obviously, knowing that it's likely, and knowing that the mafia know it's common, it only makes the first scenario more attractive to them.

3) Kyrie was killed for some other reason. Maybe they thought Kyrie was the night watchman, doc, detective, or a mason. Maybe they picked who they thought was least likely to be protected because they are trying to maximize body count. Maybe they thought she was a good player (the seeming concensus on why NAF was killed). We can't ignore the possibility that fluiddruid had nothing to do either way with last night's kill, but I am inclined to believe this is one has the lowest probability of the three scenarios.

So, in essence, I'm really not sure what to make of fluiddruid as this point OR what to make of Kyrie's breadcrumb. If we lynch fluiddruid and she is scum, does that mean that she was the breadcrumb and projammer is then not in the clear or could he still have been the breadcrumb and we just got lucky on fluiddruid? If we lynch fluiddruid and she isn't scum, does that mean the breadcrumb was projammer and he also isn't scum? What if we lynch projammer and he comes up town, does that mean fluiddruid is not the breadcrumb and is in the clear, or is was she actually the breadcrumb? What if we lynch projammer and he comes up scum, does the mean fluiddruid is the breadcrumb and is also scum? Only that last one is beneficial thought to the town, the others are either neutral (1-1 in day, 0-2 at night, maintaining the suspected 25% mafia to town ratio) or bad for the town. And if I am the breadcrumb, as has been suggested, that basically makes the whole breadcrumb completely useless for looking at our current top suspects.

So basically, since we don't have any real degree of certainty, Kyrie's breadcrumb looks to be a complete wash at this point, and wil only be useful when two of the three potential breadcrumbs are dead AND both of them turned up opposite of what the potential crumb is.

CaerieD

05-01-2007, 07:35 PM

So basically, since we don't have any real degree of certainty, Kyrie's breadcrumb looks to be a complete wash at this point, and wil only be useful when two of the three potential breadcrumbs are dead AND both of them turned up opposite of what the potential crumb is.

Pretty much what I'd been thinking as well. Was the breadcrumb that you're town? Or that fluiddruid is scum? Or was it on Projammer? If our Detective could have survived just one more night we would have had some sort of pattern to start going off of, but as it is she only had one night to investigate before she was silenced forever. So only one breadcrumb could be the one she intended, but that doesn't guarantee the other suggestions were false. There was no massively foolish "throwing the whole loaf for a breadcrumb" move like I did in the last game. :smack:

Unless someone offers some brilliant analysis on this point, it looks to me like the breadcrumbs are useless for the moment, though this might become key at some point further into the game.

SnakesCatLady

05-01-2007, 07:45 PM

I would also like to hear other's opinion as to why Projammer wasn't fitted with concrete shoes after he role-claimed. Was it because the scum figure we will be suspicious of him? Or because he is scum?

And for the record, the reason I voted for fluiddruid yester"day" is because of his vote for percypercy on Day 1. It was just reinforced for me by Kyrie voting for him also. When Kyrie got taken out, it seemed that the scum might be protecting fluiddruid because no one seems to take me seriously, whereas they might take him seriously.

nesta

05-01-2007, 08:48 PM

I would also like to hear other's opinion as to why Projammer wasn't fitted with concrete shoes after he role-claimed. Was it because the scum figure we will be suspicious of him? Or because he is scum?

I don't think it even crossed their minds to night kill Projammer, since he was one of those deciding who to night kill. To give him a little benefit of the doubt, though, why take him out if he is town? He's done a wonderful job of convincing a bunch of us he's scum, and he role-claimed a completely useless (now that it's out in the open) role. We have no way to verify it, so it doesn't really help us decide if he's scum or not. With no way to verify his role short of his death, he's doesn't even gain confirmed town status like masons do. He's no threat to the Mafia like a doctor or detective. They have no reason to kill him at all.

Of course, that's why I think he claimed that role. Claiming something that can be easily proven false is suicide. Better to keep the waters muddy and keep us all confused.

Idle Thoughts

05-01-2007, 08:58 PM

Well color me confused. Not at wondering if fluiddruid is innocent or any thought of a "frame-up". I'm more confused at those unvoting her. I think if Kyrie was leaving a breadcrumb, he'd leave it a bit more obvious and not as subtle. It seems obvious to me that he was VERY sure of his vote, both in post 813 and then, in 819, all of saying that his vote stands even though he knew of other observations at the time.

Either the killing of him was lucky or it wasn't.
If it was just pure luck, then the odds that fluiddruid is scum is, like it was before to vanilla citizens, fifty-fifty.

If it wasn't, then they HAD to know somehow that he was the detective, and the only thing that I can think of as showing this is voting for someone who is scum and getting it right.

It is true that SnakesCatLady also voted for fluiddruid last day but that could be explained as either: A. SnakesCatLady is also a scummy person or B the mafia players simply chose out of the two. Again, this is barring that fluiddruid is mafia.

What we DO know, for sure, though is:

Kyrie was the detective and Kyrie only made two references to the status of others. Un-FOSing Blaster Master and voting (and then saying he's standing by that vote rather firmly later on) for fluiddruid. I don't know about anyone else but to ME, the second action was the most breadcrumby JUST IN CASE he ever was snuffed out.

So based on that, I'm going to go back to the basics and vote fluiddruid.

nesta

05-01-2007, 09:03 PM

So basically, since we don't have any real degree of certainty, Kyrie's breadcrumb looks to be a complete wash at this point, and wil only be useful when two of the three potential breadcrumbs are dead AND both of them turned up opposite of what the potential crumb is.
I disagree. If Kyrie did leave a breadcrumb (and I think the chances that he did are much higher than not) it's the only solid piece of information we have about any players still alive. I'm not willing to discount that just because I'm not 100% sure of which breadcrumb was the breadcrumb. I'm about 75% sure that the breadcrumb was fluiddruid, just based on how sure Kyrie seemed to be about his vote, where he didn't seem very convinced about the other possibilities. That 75% chance that we can nail a scum seems a lot better to me at the moment than any other options I can currently come up with.

Idle Thoughts

05-01-2007, 09:04 PM

If it was just pure luck, then the odds that fluiddruid is scum is, like it was before to vanilla citizens, fifty-fifty.

Quoting myself just to clarify. If it was just pure luck (and Kyrie never did check fluiddruid or OR fluiddruid is not scum) then I don't see how a frame-up could be taking place since neither the mafia nor Kyrie knew what she was.

But it's apparent that since he DID vote for her, he must have not checked her out and found her to be innocent (or didn't check her out at all but if that's IS the case, I don't know why he'd make so strong of an accusation and firm belief in his vote in 819).

If he was just guessing in the dark like the rest of us and the mafia was just guessing in the dark..well, I still think voting for fluiddruid is the best course as of now since it was the only lead the detective brought to light (well, the stronger of the two, in my opinion).

Idle Thoughts

05-01-2007, 09:06 PM

.... then I don't see how a frame-up could be taking place since neither the mafia nor Kyrie knew what she was.

Aaaaand quoting again just to clarify that I mean the mafia wouldn't know what Kyrie was and Kyrie wouldn't know what fluiddruid was. Not "the mafia would not know what fluiddruid was". :p

nesta

05-01-2007, 09:17 PM

Either the killing of him was lucky or it wasn't.
If it was just pure luck, then the odds that fluiddruid is scum is, like it was before to vanilla citizens, fifty-fifty.
I very much agree with your post, but I just want to mention that if the odds of any one of us being Mafia are fifty-fifty then we've pretty much lost.

The odds of a random person being Mafia right now is 31% or 37% (I think) depending on if there are 5 or 6 mafia.

Idle Thoughts

05-01-2007, 09:29 PM

Hahah, oh I know that. I meant to say/mean "she's either one or she's not". Anyone who we bump off in the day will either be scum or town so...yeah. But you're right. With more town, the chances that we'd get one (town) are better (unfortunatly) but in regards to what anyone could be, there's only two choices. *shrugs*

I just think that's the only thing we have to go on really if we're going to put faith in the detective at all to help out his team somehow (while he was still among the living).

SnakesCatLady

05-01-2007, 09:56 PM

Just an interesting thought - going back through my notes, the first person to vote for fluiddruid was NAF1138. He did unvote her.

Rachm Qoch

05-01-2007, 10:22 PM

I'm really been thinking about this "conspiracy to frame fluiddruid" of which I'm only becoming more uncertain. That said, I'm not sure if who has voted for her will tell us anything, because we really don't know whether it is a clever bluff by the mafia to frame an innocent townie, a double-bluff to make a member of the mafia look innocent, or is a fabrication of the town's collective imagination.

As I believe was said earlier, it's unlikely the mafia knew Kyrie was the detective, because it's hard for us to find her crumbs even with perfect knowledge. If they did know she was the detective, then they did a VERY bold move knowing what would have been seen as potential breadcrumbs.

Thus, I'm thinking the best way to approach the fluiddruid conspiracy theory is from a completely different angle. Assuming they didn't know Kyrie was the detective, that makes the potential bread crumb useless for this analysis, and we're left with three scenarios:

1) fluiddruid is scum. Mafia consider killing somone, who's general trust AFAICT was somewhere around a big question mark, knowing that it would place more heat on fluiddruid because she was already highly suspected. This is bold, but the more I think about it, the more I'm not sure because fluiddruid is coming across to me more as an frantic townie than a well planned out double bluff, but that could also be part of the plan.

2) fluiddruid is a townie and is being framed. This is an obvious potential mafia ploy to frame a townie who is already highly suspected. This is highly likely, but obviously, knowing that it's likely, and knowing that the mafia know it's common, it only makes the first scenario more attractive to them.

3) Kyrie was killed for some other reason. Maybe they thought Kyrie was the night watchman, doc, detective, or a mason. Maybe they picked who they thought was least likely to be protected because they are trying to maximize body count. Maybe they thought she was a good player (the seeming concensus on why NAF was killed). We can't ignore the possibility that fluiddruid had nothing to do either way with last night's kill, but I am inclined to believe this is one has the lowest probability of the three scenarios.
My view is that 2) above is the least likely. As you said, framing a townie in thhis way is an obvious Mafia ploy. Now you could say that they'd expect us to think that, and come full circle as Idle Thoughts would say, doing the exact opposite. But you can always keep swinging 180 degrees, reasoning that the mafia will do the opposite of the opposite of the opposite ad infinitum of what the town would normally expect.

The argument comes down to whether the mafia would or wouldn't try to pull this kind of a townie frame-up. Such an obvious frame-up is IMO unlikely.
Vote fluiddruid

Blaster Master

05-02-2007, 04:19 AM

I disagree. If Kyrie did leave a breadcrumb (and I think the chances that he did are much higher than not) it's the only solid piece of information we have about any players still alive. I'm not willing to discount that just because I'm not 100% sure of which breadcrumb was the breadcrumb. I'm about 75% sure that the breadcrumb was fluiddruid, just based on how sure Kyrie seemed to be about his vote, where he didn't seem very convinced about the other possibilities. That 75% chance that we can nail a scum seems a lot better to me at the moment than any other options I can currently come up with.

Allow me to try to state my point better, I do think it's likely that fluiddruid is the breadcrumb, but I am also suspicious of fluiddruid for other reasons, and not simply because. While I'm still unsure, she is right at the top of my scum list along with Projammer; closely followed by CaerieD. I'd be pretty much happy to vote for any of them, but because of my doubt about the breadcrumb, I unvoted to attempt to prevent a potentially disasterous speed lynch. I expect my vote will end up on fluiddruid by the end of the day, but I won't be a contributor to the day ending unnecessarily early.

My point about the breadcrumb was, say we lynch fluiddruid and she comes up as scum... does that mean that was definitely the crumb? It's also entirely possible that the crumb was projammer and the vote was simply lucky. Similarly, if we lynch projammer and he comes up town, does that mean he was definitely the crumb? It could still be entirely possible that it was fluiddruid as scum.

IOW, I don't think the potential breadcrumb alone is enough to either condemn fluiddruid or save projammer... or me for that matter.

Here's the way I see it, ignoring that I could be the crumb for simplicity's sake. If we lynch projammer and he's scum, he definitely wasn't the crumb, which means fluiddruid is also definitely scum and should be lynched the next day. If we lynch fluiddruid and she comes up town, that means she definitely wasn't the crumb, and projammer is basically town confirmed.

The problem is, the two most likely crumbs are right at the top of my suspicion list, but the only way to test and truly be sure of the crumb and put it to use is to kill either projammer or fluiddruid and hope for one of the above two scenarios.

I'm unsure if I'm making any more sense because it's so late. Maybe I'll take another crack at it tomorrow if I'm not.

tirial

05-02-2007, 04:30 AM

It's also entirely possible that the crumb was projammer and the vote was simply lucky.

Sorry, but where's the mention from Kyrie that would make Projammer the crumb? I can only find two posters he's made standalone references to in his posts - fluiddruid and you.

CaerieD

05-02-2007, 08:04 AM

After thinking about it and going back over stuff, I think it's a mistake at this point to try voting based off of Kyrie's potential breadcrumbs. I don't think there was any sort of real pattern established. I'm rather curious that Blaster Master is almost completely ignoring the fact that he's a potential breadcrumb himself, but I don't think that makes him scum. I just think we've all been at this for a while now and are starting to lose perspective.

Votes and suspicion are coming based off of where dead townies were glaring into the darkness and when people voted for townies. Why? Have any player drop dead at this moment and he or she has probably fingered four other townies. At this point, is there a single one of us who hasn't looked suspiciously at a confirmed townie? Our Detective only had the chance to investigate one person and with no pattern of suspicion and trust established over days, we don't really have anything to go on. Also, the scum aren't idiots. They've got the benefit of foreknowledge, they've got the benefit of night communication and veiled day communication, and they're from an entirely random selection of highly competitive people who over-think everything. They can and will do everything townies will do and they don't have to be genuinely concerned and confused over who to vote for. All they need to do is whatever is going to draw the least amount of attention to them and get townies killed. Looking for elaborate plots and "the wine in front of me" style thinking isn't going to work. The Mafia don't need that. All they need is to grab onto something and settle down into comfortable anonymity.

That in mind, I'm voting for SnakesCatLady.

I think she's very good at keeping suspicion off of her. She was the first to vote for Projammer and then when things got hot she "threw her vote away" as dnooman put it by voting for fluiddruid. This had about as much chance of changing the outcome of the lynch as my vote for no lynch, but it was a very subtle move that hasn't drawn any attention to her today, unlike my fear of seeing another townie get lynched and inability to choose someone. Throughout the whole game she's played pretty similarly. Smart, careful, and mostly quiet.

But, that move didn't go entirely unnoticed. dnooman asked her about it and she responded in post #810 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8514587&postcount=810). But as dnooman pointed out in his response in #811 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8514655&postcount=811), this was a thrown away vote that did nothing but bring dnooman closer to lynching. Her response in #827 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8515412&postcount=827) is pretty defensive and odd in hindsight. How does voting for someone she's not sure of help the town? Well, true, but unless you're the Detective (which we know she isn't) you aren't sure of anyone. Unless you're scum.

The thing that made me decide to put my vote on SnakesCatLady, though, was a throwaway line. In post #903 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8524103&postcount=903) she asks:

I was curious as to why Kyrie was lynched when Projammer had role-claimed. It crossed my mind that the scum know we are still suspicious of him, so they didn't get him in order to get us to do their work for them - and take the head off of fluiddruid.

In the last game's commentary thread, NAF1138 revealed (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8433535&postcount=109) that nesta got offed for referring to a Mafia kill as a "lynch." Who but Mafia would refer to it that way? And guess what? In the last game nesta was scum. I'm betting I'm looking at a similar slip of the fingers here.

Millit the Frail

05-02-2007, 08:50 AM

*snip*

They've got the benefit of foreknowledge, they've got the benefit of night communication and veiled day communication, and they're from an entirely random selection of highly competitive people who over-think everything. They can and will do everything townies will do and they don't have to be genuinely concerned and confused over who to vote for. All they need to do is whatever is going to draw the least amount of attention to them and get townies killed. Looking for elaborate plots and "the wine in front of me" style thinking isn't going to work. The Mafia don't need that. All they need is to grab onto something and settle down into comfortable anonymity.

Let me get this straight.....are you saying the Mafia have it easy? I was under the impression that a good game of Mafia would be balanced so that both sides have it equally hard. That's why the town has the advantage in numbers, a few power roles, the longer discussion time, etc. In the first game, Werewolf, the town won. It looks like there's still a chance for the town to win in WW II:Mafia, even though they've royally screwed up multiple times. I think that the Mafia is probably working very hard, and that we shouldn't underestimate them.

Is that what you want us to do, underestimate them? :dubious:

Gadarene

05-02-2007, 09:00 AM

Updated Vote Count

4 -- fluiddruid (tirial, SnakesCatLady, Idle Thoughts, Rachm Qoch)
1 -- Projammer (Lightnin')
1 -- SnakesCatLady (CaerieD)

CaerieD

05-02-2007, 09:28 AM

Let me get this straight.....are you saying the Mafia have it easy? I was under the impression that a good game of Mafia would be balanced so that both sides have it equally hard. That's why the town has the advantage in numbers, a few power roles, the longer discussion time, etc. In the first game, Werewolf, the town won. It looks like there's still a chance for the town to win in WW II:Mafia, even though they've royally screwed up multiple times. I think that the Mafia is probably working very hard, and that we shouldn't underestimate them.

Is that what you want us to do, underestimate them? :dubious:

No, not at all. In fact, I was saying almost the exact opposite of that. They're working extremely hard. They're also likely being far more subtle than anyone is giving them credit for. These attempts to look for conspiracies haven't brought a single scum to lynch yet. True, we're only two days in, but we've lynched two townies and have lost two--including a power role--to night kills. We still have the benefit of numbers on our side so it's hardly like the game is lost just yet, but I don't think the current tactics are accomplishing much.

There is data to be seen in voting history, but I don't think it's going to be big flashing neon lights. There's data to be seen in discussion and analysis, but I don't think it's going to be quite so convoluted as we've been assuming it is.

Aside from my dismal experience in WWII, I've never played this game before but I have played lots of other role-playing games. In my experience, tactics that involve treating other people like pieces on a chess board don't actually work as well in real life as they do in movies. People are complex. People don't react the way you want them to. If your plan involves more than two steps of "if I do this, then he'll do that" then it's generally doomed for failure. Far better to give a little bit of bait and then stand back. Kill a townie who's made some accusation against another townie (easy enough to do at this point) and then cast suspicion on the accused townie! Voila--two dead townies. If they don't take the bait, no harm done. Just gently turn attention to someone else until a townie bites. They're working very hard, but they aren't putting the final nails in our coffins. They're getting us to do their work for them.

SnakesCatLady

05-02-2007, 09:57 AM

That in mind, I'm voting for SnakesCatLady.

I think she's very good at keeping suspicion off of her. She was the first to vote for Projammer

The thing that made me decide to put my vote on SnakesCatLady, though, was a throwaway line. In post #903 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8524103&postcount=903) she asks:

In the last game's commentary thread, NAF1138 revealed (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8433535&postcount=109) that nesta got offed for referring to a Mafia kill as a "lynch." Who but Mafia would refer to it that way? And guess what? In the last game nesta was scum. I'm betting I'm looking at a similar slip of the fingers here.

Bravo, CaerieD! *slowclap* Nice selective quotation! I'm impressed! I notice you didn't bother to mention that I corrected the typo in post #903 immediately in post #904 - but that wouldn't make the point you are trying to make, would it? Could it be that you see the tide starting to turn for your buddy fluiddruid and are trying to distract the townies with an "oh look! Shiny!" tactic? I unvoted for Projammer because he role-claimed. I wasn't as suspicious of dnooman as I was of some others; if you care to look at my voting record I never voted for him. As I said to dnooman and will say to you - I will not vote for someone just because everyone else is. I don't follow the pack in real life and I'm not going to do it here. I will cast my votes where my suspicions fall. That way, if I am night killed, the rest of the town has something to go on in my voting record instead of a bunch of useless "follow the leader" votes. It most emphatically did not have the same effect as your "no lynch" vote. It left a record of my suspicions if I had been killed that night.

Just so you know, your comment not only makes me more sure of my vote for fluiddruid, it pings my scumdar on you, where before you hadn't really been on the screen.

DiggitCamara

05-02-2007, 10:57 AM

Hi again. Sorry for not posting yesterday (real-world time).

As of now, I can't add anything substantial to the discussion.

A couple of points, though:

I've been looking at dearly departed Kyrie Eleison's posts and I don't really see any significant breadcrumbs. My guess is she investigated NAF during the first night and, obviously, whatever she did during the second night won't help us at all.

My guess would be that the mafia targetted the most experienced player during the first night and decided to target a relatively quiet townsperson on the second night, guessing (in this case correctly) that the power roles would be quieter than the rest.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

05-02-2007, 11:04 AM

The thing that made me decide to put my vote on SnakesCatLady, though, was a throwaway line. In post #903 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8524103&postcount=903) she asks:

"I was curious as to why Kyrie was lynched when Projammer had role-claimed. It crossed my mind that the scum know we are still suspicious of him, so they didn't get him in order to get us to do their work for them - and take the head off of fluiddruid."

In the last game's commentary thread, NAF1138 revealed (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8433535&postcount=109) that nesta got offed for referring to a Mafia kill as a "lynch." Who but Mafia would refer to it that way? And guess what? In the last game nesta was scum. I'm betting I'm looking at a similar slip of the fingers here.

:dubious: You might as well vote to string me up next then, because I also indirectly refer to Kyrie's night kill as a "lynch" in post #878 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8523284&postcount=878). I did not follow the second game very closely, but the idea of using death-slang preferences as a litmus test for scum strikes me as...well...batshit crazy.
Even if nesta's death was prompted by the use of the word "lynch", I'd still consider that kill as pure dumb mafia luck.

That being said, I'm still slowly chipping away at a decision between a vote for Projammer or fluiddruid, for now.

fluiddruid

05-02-2007, 11:30 AM

While I'd like to hope that CaerieD is correct and the initial push towards me was solely Mafia-driven, I simply don't think it's that easy. I think it comes down to we are still townies lynching townies.

While I do think that the lynch response to me wasn't entirely unintentional as part of the reason Kyrie Eleison got offed, the Mafia wouldn't want to be the first ones plugging it; they'd want townies to do it for them, most likely. Plus, I agree that the simple wrong word of "lynch" vs "night kill" on Snakescatlady doesn't ping as scum. If it happened in the other game? I guess, but really, isn't it just as likely a mistake?

I'm sure people don't trust me at this point, but I guess I have a few more points in my own defense.

If voting for me was a "breadcrumb", wasn't it a rather obvious and emphatic one for a Detective's first investigation? Jumping on board with Snakecatlady at the end of the day with a long post regarding why he's voting for me just doesn't seem to make a lot of sense for someone who is hiding their role. I would have expected a "breadcrumb" to be more subtle. The closest contender I can see is his "anti-FOS" of Blaster Master, though yes, it's possible he was investigating NAF as DiggitCamera suggested.

Look at his post about me objectively. Does it say breadcrumb to you? It's more like a loaf of bread, for goodness sakes. :)

nesta

05-02-2007, 11:45 AM

I did not follow the second game very closely, but the idea of using death-slang preferences as a litmus test for scum strikes me as...well...batshit crazy.
Even if nesta's death was prompted by the use of the word "lynch", I'd still consider that kill as pure dumb mafia luck.
Yes, that's pretty weak reasoning for suspecting someone. BTW, it was dumb SK luck that got me. I actually think he had a bit more of a reason to kill me than my calling a night-kill a lynch, but I can't be sure until the game 2 people finally manage to avenge me by killing the SK.

To be fair, SnakesCatLady calling the Mafia kill a lynch did jump off the page at me, like I guess it did to CaerieD. I think it's obvious why I would notice it, but I do have to wonder why she did. I wouldn't be surprised if this came up as a scum tell on the Mafia board the first night, saying "this caused the first Mafia death in game 2, so don't do this." Any scum who followed game 2 at all would be extra-careful not to make this slip.

SnakesCatLady

05-02-2007, 11:46 AM

CaerieD, I see that I misunderstood your point; you weren't referring to my typo of "head" for "heat" but to the fact that I used "lynch" instead of "night kill". :rolleyes: My post still applies, I think you are trying to use misdirection to get the scent off of fluiddruid.

In another thread, I typed "lunch" instead of "lynch". Does that make me a werewolf?

CaerieD

05-02-2007, 11:50 AM

Lightnin'

05-02-2007, 11:51 AM

I must admit, I've accidentally referred to a Mafia kill as a lynching, and then gone back to fix it to clarify. It's an easy mistake, and one I don't really think should be used as a tell.

I also type "lunch" just about every time.

SnakesCatLady

05-02-2007, 11:57 AM

Sigh. Well, I really thought I was onto something, but apparently nobody else sees it. I don't know what I think of fluiddruid, but I don't buy that she's the breadcrumb. If that makes me look scummy...eh. Nothing I can do about it. I defend myself to one person and ping the scumdar of two more. When I get offed, at least you'll all see I was a townie the whole time and might start looking at some of what I've been saying.

The only reason I think she might be the breadcrumb is because Kyrie voted for her after I did. I was suspicious enough of her before that vote to vote for her, but that nailed it for me.

DiggitCamara

05-02-2007, 12:41 PM

The only reason I think she might be the breadcrumb is because Kyrie voted for her after I did. I was suspicious enough of her before that vote to vote for her, but that nailed it for me.

From what I saw of her posts on the first day, it seems rather unlikely.

She remarked on several of NAF's posts, so it seems likely she investigated him (well... likely to me. If and when I'm killed I'll be sure to ask her in the forbidden thread :D )

tirial

05-02-2007, 01:20 PM

If I ignored when Kyrie voted for NAF and the fact he moved Omi no kami onto less than halfway through the day , I might agree with you. As it is I don't think he investigated NAF - his vote was an early game starter, and he moved onto suspecting others.

Regarding the NAF vote:
Kyrie vote 189 Vote: NAF1138 for asking DiggitCamara to give his reasons for something that NAF admits to already knowing is standard operating procedure at game start, and then casting suspicion on him for responding to his query. And 'cause I got nothing better to go on at the moment.unvote 210 I buy NAF's explanation, even if I don't agree with his reasoning for being suspicious of Diggit. Unvote NAF1138. And then queries Hal Briston. (Hal is not the crumb cos he wasn't mentioned the next day.)

Motive for investigating fluidruid? P289 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8487829&postcount=289), P347 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8489263&postcount=347), P395 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8489923&postcount=395).

Why didn't he investigated Omi no Kami? Because Kyrie didn't mention him again the next day, despite never unvoting him, and didn't leave a breadcrumb saying he was innocent.

Regarding the breadcrumb, he acknowledges there are flaws with his anti-FOS Blastermaster P701 P705, but just keeps going after fluiddruid.

DiggitCamara

05-02-2007, 01:36 PM

Regarding the breadcrumb, he acknowledges there are flaws with his anti-FOS Blastermaster P701 P705, but just keeps going after fluiddruid.

Sounds right. I hadn't looked at fluiddruid's posts (especially that last one).

Or, like this quote says
I'm never quite so stupid as when I'm being smart

tirial

05-02-2007, 01:45 PM

And after dint of much copying and pasting, a summary of every one of Kyrie's posts is below. For those who don't feel like reading them all:

He only mentions 4 posters by name: fluiddruid, projammer, blastermaster and dnooman.
1) He makes several statements that he can't tell the difference between dnooman and projammer - unlikely if he'd investigated one.
2) He anti-FOS's Blastermaster then withdraws it when challenged.
3) He suggests fluiddruid and defends the vote, even knowing there is an argument against it.

Kyrie Elesion - P628 answers dnooman re silent townies.
Kyrie - P701 Anti FOS Blastermaster
Kyrie - P705 Didn't stand by anti FOS when challenged "Crap, I feel foolish now -- that was just plain ol' dumb."
Kyrie - P722 Projammer/dnooman makes him feel like we are deciding which townie to lynch.
Kyrie - P783 arguing with dnooman.
Kyrie - P813 Gives lots of reasons to vote fluiddruid, and votes fluiddruid. "Since my gut tells me that both dnooman and Projammer are town"
Kyrie - P819 defends vote for fluiddruid. "Kyrie spent the day pondering whether he could make some distinction between dnooman and Projammer, both of whom seemed roughly equally likely to be town, or whether to vote for someone he really considered likely to be scum but had no chance of overcoming the momentum already built up against the two of you, or whether to fail to vote altogether."
"I'd like to say now that I voted for fluiddruid while fully cognizant of the argument that will arise from Rachm's post, quoted here."
Kyrie P823 - withdraws a question to dnooman
Kyrie P824 - two line post follows on from one above

He withdrew his vote for Naf early on - it was made because he had as he said, nothing better to go on. He then voted Omi no Kami (possibly as a revenge vote), but he literally never mentions him in Day 2.

Fluiddruid spent several posts naming Kyrie as scummy along with lightnin', so there was a motive for Kyrie to investigate him.

tirial

05-02-2007, 01:47 PM

And after dint of much copying and pasting, a summary of every one of Kyrie's posts* is below.

*Insert "From Day 2" here please.

Rachm Qoch

05-02-2007, 01:48 PM

If I ignored when Kyrie voted for NAF and the fact he moved Omi no kami onto less than halfway through the day , I might agree with you. As it is I don't think he investigated NAF - his vote was an early game starter, and he moved onto suspecting others.

Regarding the NAF vote:
Kyrie vote 189 unvote 210 And then queries Hal Briston. (Hal is not the crumb cos he wasn't mentioned the next day.)

Motive for investigating fluidruid? P289 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8487829&postcount=289), P347 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8489263&postcount=347), P395 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8489923&postcount=395).

Why didn't he investigated Omi no Kami? Because Kyrie didn't mention him again the next day, despite never unvoting him, and didn't leave a breadcrumb saying he was innocent.

Regarding the breadcrumb, he acknowledges there are flaws with his anti-FOS Blastermaster P701 P705, but just keeps going after fluiddruid.
I just don't see what others are seeing with regards to NAF supposedly being the most likely to be invesitaged. I could be mistaken, but the last thing I can find with Kyrie directly stating anything about NAF is here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8495483&postcount=499) in post #499:

...Yes, NAF1138 has posted a lot, and he does seem to have gained some goodwill from it. My sense is that NAF1138 is more likely town than not. But "almost sure"? Not close.
We're supposed to conclude from this that NAF was Kyrie's prime suspect? If anything, this says NAF is the least likely of those named as being the target of Kyrie's first investigation. fluiddruid -- quite possibly. Blaster Master -- maybe. NAF and Omi no Kami -- probably not.

DiggitCamara

05-02-2007, 02:08 PM

If voting for me was a "breadcrumb", wasn't it a rather obvious and emphatic one for a Detective's first investigation? Jumping on board with Snakecatlady at the end of the day with a long post regarding why he's voting for me just doesn't seem to make a lot of sense for someone who is hiding their role.

Well... what do we know about Kyrie's gamestyle after all? If I were the detective, I'd be leaving my top five FOS's every day (and my five "trusted citizens" for that matter).

Maybe she (he?) wasn't trying to hide at all.

And we should be considering why she was targeted by the Mafia as well. Was it because of her strong fingerpointing? I don't think the Mafia had strong suspicions she had a power role; it would have served them better to recruit her in that case.

CaerieD

05-02-2007, 02:29 PM

Well... what do we know about Kyrie's gamestyle after all? If I were the detective, I'd be leaving my top five FOS's every day (and my five "trusted citizens" for that matter).

Maybe she (he?) wasn't trying to hide at all.

And we should be considering why she was targeted by the Mafia as well. Was it because of her strong fingerpointing? I don't think the Mafia had strong suspicions she had a power role; it would have served them better to recruit her in that case.

If fluiddruid is the breadcrumb, then it's possible that the Mafia didn't think much of that vote at all, considering it a lucky guess. As this isn't a particularly large game, it is possible that the Mafia aren't carefully avoiding from killing any townies that finger real scum. Sure, they could avoid all lucky guessers in the hopes of finding the Detective, but doing so would leave a lot more lucky guessers in the game until they found the one they wanted to recruit. If they weren't actively looking closely for the Detective, they might have just nabbed somebody they thought was a lucky guesser.

Personally, I think they'd prefer to go for townies who had fingered other townies and I'm inclined to think fluiddruid isn't scum because of that, but if all my theorizing on how they're playing the game is wrong then fluiddruid might be the breadcrumb after all.

Lemur866

05-02-2007, 02:40 PM

OK, I see a couple possibilities. All assume that the mafia didn't know Kyrie was the detective, but they did know Kyrie had fingered fluiddruid.

1. They killed Kyrie because she was on to them, and wanted her out of the way. This means fluiddruid is scum.

2. They killed Kyrie because she fingered a townie, and wanted to increase suspicion on a townie in the hopes that the town would lynch another townie for them. This means fluiddruid is town.

3. They killed Kyrie becuase she was on to them, and figured that they could get away with it because it looks like a frame-up. This means fluiddruid is scum.

4. All other meta and meta-meta and meta-meta-meta permutations. Not worth considering, because as CaerieD points out this isn't a chess game in the movies where you can manipulate events precisely. These all collapse into 2 or 3 anyway.

DiggitCamara

05-02-2007, 02:42 PM

If fluiddruid is the breadcrumb, then it's possible that the Mafia didn't think much of that vote at all, considering it a lucky guess. As this isn't a particularly large game, it is possible that the Mafia aren't carefully avoiding from killing any townies that finger real scum. Sure, they could avoid all lucky guessers in the hopes of finding the Detective, but doing so would leave a lot more lucky guessers in the game until they found the one they wanted to recruit. If they weren't actively looking closely for the Detective, they might have just nabbed somebody they thought was a lucky guesser.

Personally, I think they'd prefer to go for townies who had fingered other townies and I'm inclined to think fluiddruid isn't scum because of that, but if all my theorizing on how they're playing the game is wrong then fluiddruid might be the breadcrumb after all.
ummm... what?

What I was trying to say is that Mafia's best strategy in this game would have been to try to recruit the Detective as soon as they found out who it was.

I also was trying to say that Mafia's reasons to eliminate someone are very important to townies. Sure, they could be using Random.org's oracle to choose their victims, but I think there is some kind of strategy involved. Since it wasn't suspicion that Kyrie was the detective (at least, I don't think it was), one possibility was her "finger-pointing". And I'm asking whether anyone can think of a different reason.

... what were you trying to say? :confused:

SnakesCatLady

05-02-2007, 02:43 PM

Personally, I think they'd prefer to go for townies who had fingered other townies and I'm inclined to think fluiddruid isn't scum because of that, but if all my theorizing on how they're playing the game is wrong then fluiddruid might be the breadcrumb after all.

I don't understand your reasoning here. Wouldn't mafia want to leave townies who are fingering other townies (ooooh that sounds dirty) alive? If townies are raising suspicion against other townies they are doing the mafia's work for them!

fluiddruid

05-02-2007, 02:54 PM

Fluiddruid spent several posts naming Kyrie as scummy along with lightnin', so there was a motive for Kyrie to investigate him.Actually, I spent one post naming him as scummy in Day One. I did again in Day Two, but that would have been after the investigation occurred.

My post was as follows:
Second on my list was Kyrie Eleison. He too voted for NAF and there is something about this post that really rings wrong for me. I truly don't see why he's trying to bring up Mason strategy here - is he trying to lay the groundwork for a future role claim? Omi no Kami said he suspected Kyrie prior to that, but didn't give a reason - Omi, if you have more, please share.You responded to this, saying:
Hmm, you know something? I've been watching everyone, and while Fluid seems quite reasonable when she explained away my accusations, it looks like Kyrie Eleison is much less comfortable being challenged. She (or he) is quiet, and she (or he) just seems a bit too eager to please.

Distrust: Kyrie, Fluid ( I said I trust you more than Kyrie, but that doesn't take you off of my radar! Especially since other people are starting to suspect you, which reassures me that I'm not being overly paranoid.)You also voted for Kyrie Eleison on Day One, as you'll recall, as well.

Frankly I think the town is being completely bandwagoned, whether by Mafia or just misled townspeople I'm not sure. But, if you look at who are the sharpest and most passionate advocates against me, you have:
- Snakecatlady: Voted for me on Day Two to avoid breaking the tie between dnooman and Projammer
- tirial, did not vote on Day Two
- Omi no Kami, did not vote on Day Two

See a pattern here? These are your emerging leaders in lynching me.

fluiddruid

05-02-2007, 02:55 PM

I don't understand your reasoning here. Wouldn't mafia want to leave townies who are fingering other townies (ooooh that sounds dirty) alive? If townies are raising suspicion against other townies they are doing the mafia's work for them!To a point, but it's stupid for the Mafia to only lynch their critics. Look at what's happening to me today, since you assume I'm Mafia.

SnakesCatLady

05-02-2007, 02:59 PM

Frankly I think the town is being completely bandwagoned, whether by Mafia or just misled townspeople I'm not sure. But, if you look at who are the sharpest and most passionate advocates against me, you have:
- Snakecatlady: Voted for me on Day Two to avoid breaking the tie between dnooman and Projammer
- tirial, did not vote on Day Two
- Omi no Kami, did not vote on Day Two

See a pattern here? These are your emerging leaders in lynching me.

No, I did not vote for you to avoid breaking the tie between dnooman and Projammer. I unvoted Projammer after he role-claimed. I was not suspicious enough of dnooman to vote for him (and as it turns out, rightly so), so I changed my vote to someone I was suspicious of.

SnakesCatLady

05-02-2007, 03:01 PM

To a point, but it's stupid for the Mafia to only lynch their critics. Look at what's happening to me today, since you assume I'm Mafia.

I may be missing something, but this makes no sense to me. Who else is the mafia going to go after? Their allies?

tirial

05-02-2007, 03:04 PM

Actually, I spent one post naming him as scummy in Day One.Looks like three to me.
P289 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8487829&postcount=289) "Kyrie Eleison has been pinging my scumdar a little bit too"
P347 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8489263&postcount=347) "Second on my list was Kyrie Eleison. He too voted for NAF and there is something about this post that really rings wrong for me. "
P395 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8489923&postcount=395) "As I've stated, Lightnin' and Kyrie are my main contenders at this stage of the game."

Also
"You responded to this, saying:"
No I didn't. Omi No Kami responded. Please don't get your posters mixed up.

3) Yes tirial did vote - it was for Lightnin' and if I hadn't remembered he was offline I wouldn't have unvoted him. As it was, someone whose offline can't defend themselves, so we gain nothing. I'd been out a chunk of the day and really wasn't sure with regard to dnooman or Projammer.

fluiddruid

05-02-2007, 03:10 PM

I may be missing something, but this makes no sense to me. Who else is the mafia going to go after? Their allies?Why does every one of your posts sound this way?

The fact is that the Mafia have no "allies". The only thing they have is townspeople who are voting for other townies.

It doesn't make sense for Mafia always to vote for people who are voting for them.

It doesn't make sense for Mafia to always vote for people who are voting for townspeople.

Surely this makes sense. What I'm trying to say is that trying to boil strategy down so simply is not helpful. Ultimately, if the Mafia play well, then they're not going to be identified by such easy patterns.

Please don't get your posters mixed up.Sorry, I freely admit I am having trouble keeping up with everything thrown at me, and I'm at work. In any case, I pretty much am dead anyway, so I guess it doesn't matter for much, since I have no further suspicions to point out for Town in future days that I haven't brought up earlier.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

05-02-2007, 03:17 PM

Personally, I think they'd prefer to go for townies who had fingered other townies and I'm inclined to think fluiddruid isn't scum because of that, but if all my theorizing on how they're playing the game is wrong then fluiddruid might be the breadcrumb after all.

Rephrasing the above:

"Personally, I think they'd prefer to go for townies who had been fingered by other townies..."

In which case I can see where you were going, and it is a scum strategy that has been previously been discussed in this thread.

If what you meant to say is exactly how you said it, then I'm as confused as SnakeCatsLady.

CaerieD

05-02-2007, 03:23 PM

ummm... what?

What I was trying to say is that Mafia's best strategy in this game would have been to try to recruit the Detective as soon as they found out who it was.

I also was trying to say that Mafia's reasons to eliminate someone are very important to townies. Sure, they could be using Random.org's oracle to choose their victims, but I think there is some kind of strategy involved. Since it wasn't suspicion that Kyrie was the detective (at least, I don't think it was), one possibility was her "finger-pointing". And I'm asking whether anyone can think of a different reason.

... what were you trying to say? :confused:

Sorry, I seem incapable of communicating clearly today. I was trying to put forth a theory for Kyrie's death. Let me try rephrasing: It's possible that fluiddruid is the breadcrumb and the Mafia just didn't consider that Kyrie was the Detective voting with foreknowledge. They can't logically consider every player who makes a lucky guess a potential recruit. Likely we've all managed to look suspiciously at one of the scum by this point.

So, then, if fluiddruid is scum, the Mafia might have offed Kyrie for the finger-pointing without realizing that they had the Detective. Why they'd kill Kyrie for the finger-pointing and not SnakesCatLady doesn't make much sense unless you think that SnakesCatLady is scum, which I do.

Even so, I'm still uncertain about fluiddruid, but I am fairly sure of my vote, so I'm sticking with it.