Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

[Idle Thoughts]

You're right. It will. Barring that is the case. (and heck, maybe if it ISN'T the case like what happened with you and fluiddruid. I'm just going to take my chances though.

[Idle Thoughts]

However, you seem to be determined not to listen to anything I have to say, so there's not much point in defending myself to you anymore.


Snipped some.

I like how you put it that way. How I'm DETERMINED not to listen and making it seem like you're putting forth this great reasoning that you don't see how I could not pay attention to it.

This is, yet again, what I don't get.

Listen, all I'm doing is voting and getting suspicions on people based on my observations and reasoning from what has transpired, so far, in the game. How is that weird or determined not to listen? The case seems to be, right now, that you're going: "One person voted for me based on perfectly possible reasons. However let me try to telling all I can to get him to unvote me and then, when he sticks to his guns, accuse him of being determined to be "wrong"".

You're saying I'm not listening to anything you're saying. I say that I am and have understood everything so far...but still think it's extremely plausible that it was a set up. Well hey! If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I admit fully that I could be wrong. However, I don't FEEL or THINK I'm wrong and have also explained to you all the reasons why I think this. So what are we left with? Nothing. No harm, no foul. You're in no danger of being lynched and think of it THIS way...if you really ARE town, then chances are everyone scummy will gang up on you and help me lynch you, just so it will look bad for me the next day. THAT certainly seems plausible, doesn't it?

Only guess what? I don't think that's going to happen.

[Hal Briston]

Ok, my low-post-count investigation is done, and I've found an intrinsic flaw in my theory -- "flying under the radar" is a very subjective concept. I'd previously said that I had little read on tirial, yet even though Rachm Qoch has the lowest in-thread post count of any living player, I know exactly where he stands on my radar.

I suppose some of this comes from recognizing names pre-Mafia. I had never noticed tirial before this game, but I was very much aware of Rachm "Reaper" Qoch.

Anyway, even though "flying under the radar" is subjective, post counts are not (well, maybe they are a little...some players prefer to put five points into five short posts, while others would put those same five points into one long post...but I digress). So, I'm taking a look at those with the lowest post counts as of 5:00pm EST, 5/15/07:

Rachm Qoch 39
Hal Briston 47
nesta 49
Lightnin' 60
Millit the Frail 60
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies 60

One thing I've figured out through this -- my theory was crap. Pretty much useless. I gleaned very little from this, and as (I think) tirial pointed out awhile back, the lack of posting makes finding the nuggets more difficult. But, here's what I managed to scrape up, in order by post count:

Rachm Qoch -- My take: Not Scum. He puts quite a bit of analysis into this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8568682#post8568682) in response to Idle Thoughts' post about the events of Night Three. If Rachm isn't town, then putting this much work into appearing to be town is a magnificent bluff.

Hal Briston -- My take: Definitely Not Scum. Gadarene told me so. :)

nesta -- My take: Undecided, leaning towards Not Scum. I didn't find anything terribly convincing either way. However, I did find an interesting post about the next player on our block...

Lightnin' -- My take: Prossibly scum. The reasons for such have been bandied about for quite awhile now, and to be honest, it was looking like a bit of a railroading to me. However, reading back through older posts with fresh eyes brings interesting things to light. nesta's Post #475 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8493916&postcount=475), for example (Johnny Dangerously quotes excepted).

Millit the Frail -- My take: Undecided, leaning ever so slightly towards Not Scum. This would probably be a flat-out undecided if he didn't push pretty hard for lynching fluiddruid. Beyond that, I didn't come across much that hasn't been heavily covered elsewhere.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies -- My take: Damnation, do I ever want to say Scum. Maybe it's posting style, hell, maybe it's just username, but DarkSideCookies has lit up my scumdar for days now. Trouble is, I can't find a shred of anything to back that up. It seems to be a common problem of mine. I'll say this much -- I will absolutely, 100% guarantee that of DarkSideCookies, SnakesCatLady and CaerieD, we've got at least one Mafia member in there. Ok...99% guarantee. But I'm pretty damn sure of it anyway. Just wish I could back it up with more than the bits others have already posted.

Ok, I started this post (in Notepad, obviously) over 24 hours ago. Time to toss it on the board and see what shakes out of it.

[Hal Briston]

Lightnin' -- My take: Prossibly scum. Hmmm...did I just invent a new word? If I'm not mistaken, that started out as "Probably", but I attempted to change it to "Possibly".

To be honest, "Prossibly" fits the bill better than either of those others, though.

[nesta]

I realized about halfway through composing this that it’s anything but concise – sorry about that. I looked through Hal Briston’s posts last night, making some notes on ones I wanted to mention, but it got late so I’ve been writing it all day when I had a few free minutes during work.

---

First, I need to revise my suspicion list I posted (in-game) yesterday. After a quick review I'm slightly less suspicious of Lemur866 and Blaster Master. This leaves CaerieD and DiggitCamara. Reading back through the thread I'm reminded of why I've been suspicious of Lightnin', so he deserves a mention for the obvious reasons.

A number of people today have mentioned suspicions of Hal Briston. He's been flying mostly under my radar, as I think he has for the whole town, so I reviewed his posts to form some type of opinion about him. There wasn't a lot there, but I don't really like what little there was.

First, I'd like to remind everyone of his over-anxious vanilla townie claim in post 190 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8483693&postcount=190):

And lest anyone find that I'm fitting into DiggitCamara theory of "the scum's interests dictate a strategy of diluting information and spreading paranoia", let me just state for the record: I'm just a simple, babbling townie.
This was in his first in-game post. He was called out back in Day 1 for this, so I won't harp on it, but I still find this a little odd.

In post 196 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8483938&postcount=196) he votes for NAF1138, citing Kyrie Eleison calling NAF out for asking questions he already knew the answer to. I don't like this early pile-on.

In post 210 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8484370&postcount=210) Kyrie Eleison turn around and FOSes Hal Briston for his townie claim, saying:


It seems to me that there are three possibilities:

Hal Briston is a simple townie, and has just made it a little easier for the mob to identify pro-town power roles
Hal Briston is pro-town, but not a simple townie, in which case his lying may make things difficult for the town later
Hal Briston is scum, and is hoping both to deflect suspicion, and to encourage townies to follow his lead and claim roles.

None of these possibilities seem to have a pro-town outcome. FOS Hal Briston.
In post 383 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8489797&postcount=383) he says:

...snip...

NAF -- Others have put out good arguments for him. I'm wavering, but the vote still stands.

percypercy -- I'm suspicious, but that stems from his suspicions of DiggitCamara and DC's mentions of being a townie. Perhaps I'm being a sucker, but I buy DC's claims. Keeping my eye on percy.

A couple of quick, unquantifiable notes before I have to leave work:

dnooman -- pinging heavily townie to me.
Projammer -- I've got unfounded scum suspicions there.
Rachm Qoch I don't really trust, but that just stems from his near-freakish ability to determine who is going to die.
A few interesting points here. He's casting suspicion on NAF and percypercy, two confirmed townies that both wind up dead by next morning. Also notice dnooman, who he says is pinging heavily townie. Keep that in mind as he switches to helping to get dnooman lynched the next day.

In post 389 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8489863&postcount=389) he posts this in reply to Idle Thoughts making a case against fluiddruid due to non-random role assignments:

Ok, this is bringing up a question that has jumped out at me before.

Gadarene -- how did you assign roles? We're they completely random, or did you pick and choose who became what?
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies questions this in post 426 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8491509&postcount=426):

For me, the most interesting thing said in the past 24 RL hours has been. Idle Thoughts' idle thoughts about the technique used for role assignments and assuming that fluiddruid had been given a creamy chocolate vs vanilla center in post #387.

I would have assumed that everyone would know that roles would be assigned at random by any GM with a soul. Which leads me to Hal, who's follow up question to Gadrene in the same vein I also found interesting. My gut reaction is that neither of them would legitimately ponder in this manner, so their behavior is raising a flag for me.

He answers this in post 429 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8491572&postcount=429):


Maybe I'm not paying close enough attention, but that has to be one of the single most absurd statements I've seen in here so far. A first-time player asking the ref a perfectly legit question is flag-raising behavior? Of course I figured he assigned roles randomly, and now we all know for sure.

If there's one thing I've gleaned from reading through the other threads, it's that calling patently non-suspicious behavior suspicious is pretty damn suspicious in itself.
This post seems a little over-defensive to me. I didn't think ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies's gut feeling that neither Hal Briston or Idle Thoughts would legitimately be pondering this issue. Later Idle Thoughts says that in games he runs roles aren't assigned randomly, but Hal Briston's reaction seemed over the top.

In post 491 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8494993&postcount=491) he decides that since Lightnin' is a big target, Hal doesn't like having his vote in the same place as Lightnin' because if Lightnin' is lynched, and turns out to be scum, he's worried about guilt by association. In this post he unvotes NAF and votes ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, citing post 429 (quoted above) as his reason. I encourage everyone to go read this post, as it is one of his that seems a little off to me.

In post 598 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8502902&postcount=598) he replies to my saying we need to take a serious look at who derailed the Projammer wagon. He says:

I don't have an immediate answer to the second part, but as to the first part my notes say dnooman in post #461: "The Projammerwagon needs to stop and be inspected IMO".
This was the first suspicion cast on dnooman during Day 2, and he wound up being lynched. Hal continues to push for a dnooman lynching throughout the day. In post 655 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8504936&postcount=655) he says two of dnooman's posts were screaming out to him:

Ok, I've been looking back at the events since "last night", and two of dnooman's posts are really screaming out at me:

Post #545 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8503219&postcount=545):
This post was made just as night fell. My reply question is, why do you ask? Yes, a townie could ask it, and the answer would give us a tiny grain of information, but that's information that would be of much more use to scum.

Next up is post #608 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8503219&postcount=608):
Someone please correct me if I'm wrong here, but this reads to me like dnooman knows exactly how many players are scum, no?

Perhaps I'm reading this completely wrong, but it seems to me like he just slipped and stated that there are four scum players. Am I missing something with this?
And in post 746 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8510577&postcount=746) he votes for dnooman:


I don't believe I've voted for dnooman previously. However, seeing as no one in this game has pinged my scumometer more than he has, I'm going to go ahead and change that now -- vote dnooman.
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This was the vote that tied up dnooman and Projammer on day two, for what it's worth. I noticed something interesting when checking the vote count. The four people voting for dnooman at that point are pretty much my suspicion list: Lightin', DiggitCamara, CaerieD, Hal Briston. I'm not sure what to make of that.

In post 826 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8515391&postcount=826) he says:

...snip a little...
Still not buying what dnooman is selling. Not a bit of it. If I'm wrong about this, then I'll be the first one to drink to his memory, but damnit, I'm sticking to my guns on this one.

As for Projammer's role claim, what was the point? The only way the Do-Gooder is useful is if the scum don't know who has that role. I can't see any good reason for claiming that role. Why not claim vanilla town, and hope for the best? Hell, if you really are the Do-Gooder, then claim to be the detective and hope the scum do try and claim you, thereby wasting their recruitment.

I haven't been one calling for Projammer to swing, but that just comes off as a very odd move to me.

...snip a little...

I include this one for completeness. If Hal is scum, this could be him trying to sit firmly on the fence so as to not look so bad when a townie is lynched.

During Day 3, after Kyrie had been killed and a lot of suspicion thrown towards fluiddruid, Hal posts his suspicion list in post 931 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8525940&postcount=931):

...snip...

I've just done a quick readthrough of the day's events, and have come to one major conclusion: The more sure I am that someone is scum, the more I realize how bad I am at scumdetecting.

With that in mind, here's the read I'm getting:

Heavy Suspicion:
Projammer
fluiddruid

Suspicion:
CaerieD
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

...snip...
Now, he does put fluiddruid second on the list, but Projammer before her. At this point I think the vote count was 3 votes fluiddruid (it was 4 until Blaster Master unvoted), and none for anyone else. If Hal is scum, he could be trying to derail the fluiddruid bandwagon here, but also put her at the top of the list as a cover in case it didn't work.

In post 1024 ( http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8532557&postcount=1024) he votes for Projammer, making the vote count fluiddruid 5, Projammer 3 (including Hal):

Have to do this now, and quickly, since I'm about to go to the hospital and don't know when I'll be online again (blew my damn knee out, it seems).

Of late, I'm slightly more suspicious of Projammer than I am of fluiddruid (but only slightly). Now, since I've proven to myself that my instincts in this game suck rocks, I'm very tempted to go away from my suspicions and either vote fluiddruid, or even say "hell with it" and toss a vote in some other, random direction.

Then I realize that would be fricking ridiculous. Suspicions are there for a reason -- if that reason is because they're scum who slipped up, then woo hoo. If it's because they're town, but the actual scum made them look bad, then so be it. That would suck, but second-guessing every single thing will make you crazy. Vote Projammer.
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As I’m sure we all remember, the votes swung, and Projammer died instead of fluiddruid.

At the beginning of Day 4 he says in post 1150 ( http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8546068&postcount=1150) that he wants to vote to lynch fluiddruid, but hedges a little:

Geez, this is looking oogly.

I want to vote to lynch fluiddruid, really I do. But (as I've stated before) it seems that the more sure I am about someone's scum status, the more likely it turns out that they're town. It's getting to the point where I'm going to just start tossing darts at a list of names of those who I have little suspicion of and hoping to pick off scum...

<thwack!> nesta... <thwack!> tirial... <thwack!> DiggitCamara....

Sigh...let's see what the next few (RL) days bring...
…snip…
In post 1160 ( http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8546473&postcount=1160) he responds to DiggitCamara’s concern about a mason recruitment, saying that masons’ primary loyalty stays with the masons even if recruited:

Sure about that? If a mason is recruited, his secondary loyalty will shift from town to mafia, but his first loyalty remains with the masons, does it not?
This post surprised me, because I hadn’t remembered that rule. I thought maybe scum would be well aware of this since they would be paying careful attention to the recruitment rules.

In post 1340 ( http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8558442&postcount=1340) he votes for fluiddruid, but this is fairly late in the day when her fate was all but sealed. I’m not going to quote that post, but I encourage everyone to re-read it.

The last post I’m going to point out, because the rest are all recent enough that everyone probably remembers them, is post 1413 ( http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8567251&postcount=1413), where he asks for a rules clarification on whether the Mafia were told who each other were during Day 1:

Did he find out Come to the Dark Side... was also mafia during Night 1?Not the case, but it raises an interesting point that I hadn't considered before. Hey Gadarene -- were all mafia members identifed to each other during the game setup, or did they have to wait until the first night to see who their allies were? I always assumed that it was the former, but if it's the latter, then there may be some interesting voting patterns to be discerned.
This was asked and answered during Day 1 (I think I was the one who asked, but I’m not sure). It’s not an unreasonable question, but this late in the game it pinged my scumdar.

I was hoping to find a smoking gun in his posts, but I didn’t. His posting record is bad, but so are many of the rest of ours. He hasn’t posted much, and has been flying under the radar, but the same could be said of me and a few others. The biggest point in his favor has been his votes and FOSes for fluiddruid, but he did so in a way that it could have been out of necessity, since he didn’t add much suspicion until it seemed inevitable that she was going to get lynched. Many of his posts ping my scumdar, but not strongly enough for me to be 100% convinced.

So I don’t know about Hal Briston. His posts and history have earned him a solid FOS from me, but not enough to vote for him yet.

[Millit the Frail]

It's been so quiet today! Do we need a town pep talk? I think we do.

We're tired. We're weary. We've abandoned the local bar and are instead hiding in our root cellars. Our eyes are burning from gazing our monitors. I mean, from...looking around stealthily at each other. And the darkness in those root cellars. (Yeah.) It's time to rise up, and take charge again. There's gonna be a lynchin'!

*waves pitchfork*

That's the spirit!

I'm starting to fear that we're going to have a last-minute vote rush. That's never good. The scum have it easiest when things happen too quickly for us to keep track of things. Right now, we have a 2-2 tie between Lightnin' and SnakesCatLady. I'm definitely sticking with Lightnin' for now, though SCL is up there on my list. Could we possibly get some more votes in tonight, or early tomorrow, before the snot starts hitting the fan? Before we're trying to hack our way through the darkness among a small but fast-acting group who know all of our allegiances?

As far as Hal and nesta, it's good to hear from you both, though it's only served to put both of you more firmly in my ??? category. I'm not sure I can buy the idea that asking questions about the game is a "scum acting clueless in order to hide" technique. But I was more than a little excited to see this:

This was the vote that tied up dnooman and Projammer on day two, for what it's worth. I noticed something interesting when checking the vote count. The four people voting for dnooman at that point are pretty much my suspicion list: Lightin', DiggitCamara, CaerieD, Hal Briston. I'm not sure what to make of that.

That's kind of crazy. I'm not sure I could see more than two Mafia being on that list. They couldn't care that much about the "swing" from Projammer to dnooman. Plus, such an obvious voting bloc would be really foolish. I strongly doubt they'd be bold enough (on Day 2!) to be three (or four) of the first four voters on a bandwagon that lynched a townie.

Of nesta's list, two are on my shortlist, one is impossible to get a read on, and the other is leaning town. If either Lightnin' or CaerieD is town, well....I'm still not sold on Hal or Diggit being scum, but I'll be taking them off the back-burner of my mind.

[Rachm Qoch]

First, I need to revise my suspicion list I posted (in-game) yesterday. After a quick review I'm slightly less suspicious of Lemur866 and Blaster Master. This leaves CaerieD and DiggitCamara. Reading back through the thread I'm reminded of why I've been suspicious of Lightnin', so he deserves a mention for the obvious reasons.
I don't know about DiggitCamara, but I'm still just as curious about Lightnin' as I was the last go-around. I can't make up my mind if he's mafia doing some kind of drunken-monkey kung-fu or if he's just playing way out front as a townie. Same with CaeireD -- she caught my interest coming down on both sides of fluiddruid. Looking at it now, she's put herself in a damned-if-I-do damned-if-I-don't situation, and I'm wondering to myself why a mafia would put herself in such a position, where she would attract suspicion from both sides. Is she a townie accidentally painting herself into a corner, or a clever mafia making a "townie mistake"? Or is she mafia but just screwed up, jumping off the pro-fluid wagon when she saw it was a lost cause?

I was fairly confident when I put my vote on fluiddruid; in comparison it's kind of frustrating trying to make as solid a case against anyone else. It's kind of funny now that I don't see any particular individual as obvious scum, the whole damn town is looking kind of scummy, and I'm viewing virtually every post with suspicion.

[SnakesCatLady]

>snip<

I'm starting to fear that we're going to have a last-minute vote rush. That's never good. The scum have it easiest when things happen too quickly for us to keep track of things. Right now, we have a 2-2 tie between Lightnin' and SnakesCatLady. I'm definitely sticking with Lightnin' for now, though SCL is up there on my list. Could we possibly get some more votes in tonight, or early tomorrow, before the snot starts hitting the fan? Before we're trying to hack our way through the darkness among a small but fast-acting group who know all of our allegiances?

>snip<


The 2-2 tie is between Lightnin' and CaerieD. I only have one vote at the moment.

[Millit the Frail]

The 2-2 tie is between Lightnin' and CaerieD. I only have one vote at the moment.

Sorry. That's what I meant. I'm feeling about the same toward you both, which is that you're both "not as scummy-looking as Lightnin'." So I got you confused. :smack:

At least my spreadsheet had the right answers......I just didn't consult it.

[SnakesCatLady]

I also agree that I'm worried about a last minute "rush to vote". I do believe, however, that however the votes fall there will be some interesting discussions on Day 6.

[nesta]

That's kind of crazy. I'm not sure I could see more than two Mafia being on that list. They couldn't care that much about the "swing" from Projammer to dnooman. Plus, such an obvious voting bloc would be really foolish. I strongly doubt they'd be bold enough (on Day 2!) to be three (or four) of the first four voters on a bandwagon that lynched a townie.
Yeah, I thought the same thing. I had already revised my suspicion list and composed that part of my post before noticing this. It was a WTF moment when I saw they were all together like that on a day I figured the scum would be equally divided between the two confirmed townies or hanging back.

I knew my suspicion list had contradictions. I don't have examples off the top of my head, but a few of them have been going after each other in ways I don't expect scum to do. My suspicion list is really just the top of my list, and not a solid "I'm sure these are the remaining scum" list.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

This post seems a little over-defensive to me. I didn't think ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies's gut feeling that neither Hal Briston or Idle Thoughts would legitimately be pondering this issue. Later Idle Thoughts says that in games he runs roles aren't assigned randomly, but Hal Briston's reaction seemed over the top.

Can you re-parse that second sentence?

[nesta]

Can you re-parse that second sentence?
Ugh, sorry about that, it doesn't really say anything does it. I know what I meant, but I obviously didn't say it. I think I left out the end of the sentence.

I meant it to say that your gut feeling that Hal and Idle wouldn't legitimately be pondering if role assignments were random was a valid gut feeling.

Or, to rephrase the actual sentence: "I didn't think ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies's gut feeling that neither Hal Briston or Idle Thoughts would legitimately be pondering this issue is absurd."

[Omi no Kami]

I'm still undecided on this whole Lightin' vs CaerieD bit, but I just wanted to voice a slight observation; early on I mentioned that CaerieD was coming out of the gate much more confrontationally on day 1 than she'd ever behaved in the last game. A bunch of different people brought up the point that it's often good for the detective to act conservatively and lay low, and I recall CaerieD confirming this by claiming that she's ordinarily much more proactive. (I'm remembering this correctly, right? I'd appreciate it if Caerie or someone else point out her response to that affair, if my memories are off.)

Anyway, at the time this seemed like an extremely reasonable explanation, and I eased off. However, I do want to mention that as the game has continued, CaerieD has grown quieter and less confrontational... there could be a lot of reasonable explainations for this, but it seems a little odd that she would start out in a confrontational mood, explain that it was normal for her to play that way, and then suddenly abandon that approach a couple of days in.

Our only confirmed mobster, fluid, also made a lot of noise on day 1, probably in an effort to probe for power roles... so I don't think it's unreasonable to wonder if CaerieD didn't have a similiar objective.

FOS CaerieD

[CaerieD]

I'm still undecided on this whole Lightin' vs CaerieD bit, but I just wanted to voice a slight observation; early on I mentioned that CaerieD was coming out of the gate much more confrontationally on day 1 than she'd ever behaved in the last game. A bunch of different people brought up the point that it's often good for the detective to act conservatively and lay low, and I recall CaerieD confirming this by claiming that she's ordinarily much more proactive. (I'm remembering this correctly, right? I'd appreciate it if Caerie or someone else point out her response to that affair, if my memories are off.)

Anyway, at the time this seemed like an extremely reasonable explanation, and I eased off. However, I do want to mention that as the game has continued, CaerieD has grown quieter and less confrontational... there could be a lot of reasonable explainations for this, but it seems a little odd that she would start out in a confrontational mood, explain that it was normal for her to play that way, and then suddenly abandon that approach a couple of days in.

Our only confirmed mobster, fluid, also made a lot of noise on day 1, probably in an effort to probe for power roles... so I don't think it's unreasonable to wonder if CaerieD didn't have a similiar objective.

FOS CaerieD



I'd think that my reasons for being far less proactive and vocal recently would be obvious. I messed up big time on Day 3 and have pretty much guaranteed my own eventual lynching at this point by 1) having a poor voting history, 2) defending fluiddruid, and 3) voting for fluiddruid in the end. I'm still not sure how realizing I was wrong and casting a vote in that direction stamps me as scum, but it seems to be the reasoning SnakesCatLady is using (P1490) and there's no arguing with the facts. I really did do those things. At this point, I feel like all I can do is make it worse.

Pretty much the only defense I have is that while I've made some huge missteps as a townie, I'd have to be some sort of raving lunatic to play like this as Mafia. Those interpreting my actions on previous days as trying to "lay low" or "disappear into the crowd" have really made me laugh. Everything I've done has drawn attention to me. I suppose you could say I'm scum with a bizarrely convoluted iocaine powder style strategy, but if I learned nothing else from Day 3 it's that the more complicated you make your argument in this game the less likely you are to be right. I guess everyone else will have to make that mistake before they learn from it, though.

I just can't buy this. I have held off casting a vote (so have a lot of others, I've noticed), but I don't want a last minute pile-on with no chance for discussion. I am still very suspicious of Lightnin' and Hal Briston, but CaerieD's defense of fluiddruid combined with her changing her mind just keeps leaping out in front.

And yes, CaerieD, my voting record is better than yours. I have voted every time, which you have not, and I do not have any final votes for a townie. I did vote for confirmed scum - three days in a row - a fact that Idle Thoughts is trying to use now to lynch me.

Vote CaerieD

[Color removed]

SCL, the point about the voting history is that at that time no one, save scum and possibly Kyrie, knew for certain who they were voting for. The only way you'd know that you were voting for scum when you voted for fluiddruid is if you had insider information. Yes, in hindsight you hit the nail on the head, but that's in hindsight. At the time of that post, you didn't know unless you're scum and were voting for your own kind, establishing a nice little "yay town!" record.

Now, I've got a little bit of insider information on all of this. I know I'm town and fluiddruid went out of her way to draw attention to my defense of her. It was her defense (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8537933&postcount=1057) of herself on Day 3 that first gave me that sinking feeling in my stomach that maybe I'd been wrong all along. The vaguely "pro-town" role claim didn't sit well with me, but more than that I didn't like being called out in the defense as a defender. Town shouldn't be trying to make alliances like that with one another, since it can come back to bite you if it turns out the other person is scum. And yet fluiddruid did. I started doubting all of my defense for her at that point, but still wasn't sure she was scum and it seemed like Projammer was such a more likely target.

And then there's her defense on Day 4 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8549912&postcount=1251). Again, she specifically advocates me, mentioning that I'm an alternate target but it wouldn't be a good idea to go after me instead. I wavered on it a bit after that, but ultimately decided her defenses were so clearly designed to cast suspicion on others that she had to be scum. So I voted for her and for some bizarre reason my ability to change my mind and admit when I'm wrong is being touted by SCL as an example of my scumminess. My initial defense of fluiddruid, sure, but how exactly would you expect town to act when they realize they're wrong?

Since all I know for certain is the dead and my own role, looking at fluiddruid's defense makes me think SnakesCatLady is probably scum. Lightnin' is likely town. Like she did with me, fluiddruid made little advocacy comments for Lightnin's sake:

Frankly I'm not convinced that Lightnin is scum. Frankly there is more evidence against me than Lightnin and there's not much between them. I sympathize with the guy since he's been basically a target from the beginning with very little to go on. Frankly, I would be less suspicious of the person who votes for me versus the one who votes for Lightnin, because at least there is a legitimate hypothesis (while one, of course, I argue against) that I'm the detective breadcrumb. I really don't see that with Lightnin.

At the beginning of my research I thought it might be best for Town to off me. Being so high on the "suspicious" lists, all my arguments and thoughts will be seen in that light. Other candidates in that field would be Lightnin or CaerieD. I don't know if that's really a good strategy in the long term but I'd like to be useful for the team. I really hate the idea of staying in the game and having every one of my strategies assumed as misleading -- as it really puts me in a position of difficulty to contribute at all.

There are several references to what a bad idea it is to keep going after the same targets. Obviously, she meant herself, but kept inserting Lightnin' in there, too. Why? Likely to establish this same sort of "alliance" appearance as she'd done between her and me. The only player she really attacks in any of this is SnakesCatLady, who's called out and who repeatedly voted against her. fluiddruid has left two nice targets for the townies while giving enough townie cred to SCL that she can get away with voting for a few townies at this point, after having gone after scum three days in a row.

I really hadn't been sure about SCL at the beginning of this day and I don't think my vote on Day 3 had the best reasoning behind it, but I'm getting more and more certain that she's scum.

[COLOR=Blue]Vote SnakesCatLady

[CaerieD]

In the middle of that monstrous post, I forgot to respond to the rest of Omi no Kami's post. I already wasted an hour this morning going back over the thread so I can't do it now to find the posts in question, but I believe early on in this game I was called out for being too quiet, not too vocal. I had one of the lowest post counts at that time and then on Day 2 was when I started posting quite a bit and drawing more and more attention to myself and everything went to hell on Day 3. So while I have gotten more quiet today and my explanation for that still stands, as far as I've seen no one on past days accused me for being too proactive.

[Hal Briston]

<slow clap>...oh nesta, that was goood. Ok, let's play along for a bit:
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First, I'd like to remind everyone of his over-anxious vanilla townie claim in post 190:
<snip>
This was in his first in-game post. He was called out back in Day 1 for this, so I won't harp on it, but I still find this a little odd.<shrug> Newbie mistake. Yup...it was my first game post, and it seemed like something I should get out the way at the time. At that point, I had read the first few days of Werewolf, and hadn't looked into the first Mafia thread at all. I figured it was a standard move (obviously, I now realize it's not a good thing to do at all).
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A few interesting points here. He's casting suspicion on NAF and percypercy, two confirmed townies that both wind up dead by next morning.Yeah, that was me. I killed them. Both of them. They never saw it coming...got them both, completely on my own.

Oh, wait, no, I remember now -- I clearly said in the quoted post that my suspicions against NAF were wavering, and I later unvoted him. I also clearly explained my suspicions against percypercy, and for them to influence anyone else's vote, that person would have to have had the same opinion of DiggitCamara that I had.

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Next up, one of my favorites -- the DarkSideCookies "roles assignment question" bit.

1: I ask if roles are assigned randomly or not.
2: DSC decides that a first-time player asking that question is suspicious, since everyone knows roles are assigned randomly.
3: This raises a flag for me. No, I did not know they were assigned randomly. I figured they were, but didn't know it for sure. Vindication comes when it comes out that while the roles were assigned randomly in this game, other GMs do not do random assignments. This should be the obvious end to the matter.

However, now nesta has addressed DarkSideCookies's suspicions:
...your gut feeling that Hal and Idle wouldn't legitimately be pondering if role assignments were random was a valid gut feeling. So, my wondering if role assignments were random was in some way a scum tell, even though it has come out that some GMs don't randomly assign? Ohhhh-kay then.

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In post 491 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8494993&postcount=491) he decides that since Lightnin' is a big target, Hal doesn't like having his vote in the same place as Lightnin' because if Lightnin' is lynched, and turns out to be scum, he's worried about guilt by association. In this post he unvotes NAF and votes ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, citing post 429 (quoted above) as his reason. I encourage everyone to go read this post, as it is one of his that seems a little off to me.
Yes, please everyone, do read it, and point out to me any subterfuge. I readily admitted that I didn't not want the record to show that I was voting in allegiance with a player who was so heavily suspected to be scum (and who, mind you, is still at the top of many of your lists). Especially since DarkSideCookies had made quite the leap on my scumdar.

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In post 598 he replies to my saying we need to take a serious look at who derailed the Projammer wagon. He says:

I don't have an immediate answer to the second part, but as to the first part my notes say dnooman in post #461: "The Projammerwagon needs to stop and be inspected IMO".
This was the first suspicion cast on dnooman during Day 2, and he wound up being lynched.
Ok, let's get this straight.

You ask "Who derailed the Projammerwagon?"
I say "It looks like dnooman suggested it here".

You ask a question, I give a factual answer. Woah, good thing you pointed that out to everyone.

You then go on to quote the bits about the possibility of dnooman slipping and admitting he knew how many scum players there were. This issue came up, was investigated, and was found to be faulty logic. Unfortunately, it was a large part of my suspicion of dnooman. I don't know if it had bearing in his eventual lynching, but it was a mistake that I regret.

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During Day 3, after Kyrie had been killed and a lot of suspicion thrown towards fluiddruid, Hal posts his suspicion list in post 931 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8525940&postcount=931):
<snip>
Now, he does put fluiddruid second on the list, but Projammer before her.Actually, no. Sorry if it was misleading, but the names were in no particular order. I was equally suspicious of the both of them.

Amazing that the two people at the top of my suspicion list were the two people I voted for the next two days.

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In post 1160 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8546473&postcount=1160) he responds to DiggitCamara’s concern about a mason recruitment, saying that masons’ primary loyalty stays with the masons even if recruited:
<snip>
This post surprised me, because I hadn’t remembered that rule. I thought maybe scum would be well aware of this since they would be paying careful attention to the recruitment rules.Or, it could have something to do with the printout of Gadarene's roles post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8480796&postcount=105) tacked up two feet to my right.

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Now, here's where my problem comes in. I know I'm not scum. But it's been said, quite accurately, that in order for the town to win we have to have the ability to think like scum. So let's do that for a minute, shall we?
Hi everyone, I'm scum! I want to spread paranoia among the townies and get them at each other's throats. How can I best do that? Hey, look, we have a town player who hadn't been getting much notice, but a few players are starting to glance over at him. What a perfect time to go through his entire posting history and cherry-pick out each post that might make him look bad! Naturally I'll ignore any later explanations, obvious answers or anything else that might hurt our case. The key here is to make sure the townies are niiice and suspicious of this player. And as a bonus, when he rebuts these statements and calls me out, I'll be able to say "Hey, why so paranoid? Boy, being that defensive is a real scum tell, you know!"

Perfect!So, what we have here is a mess of conjecture, easily explained. You've gone to a lot of work to cast dispersions on me, but there is very little meat on those bones you've cast out.

Now, I see two possibilities here:
1. You're town -- you wanted to see if there was anything to the rising suspicion against me, so you picked through all my posts and culled that which you thought relevant. You somehow missed a lot of obvious answers, but you didn't mean to. You simply had the town's best interest at heart, and so you presented your evidence with honesty.

Wanna guess what the second possibility is?So I don’t know about Hal Briston.Actually, I believe you know exactly where I stand.

Vote nesta

[DiggitCamara]

(snip)
Since all I know for certain is the dead and my own role, looking at fluiddruid's defense makes me think SnakesCatLady is probably scum. Lightnin' is likely town. Like she did with me, fluiddruid made little advocacy comments for Lightnin's sake:



There are several references to what a bad idea it is to keep going after the same targets. Obviously, she meant herself, but kept inserting Lightnin' in there, too. Why? Likely to establish this same sort of "alliance" appearance as she'd done between her and me.

(snip)

Like I mentioned before, I don't really think we could or should base our positions strongly on fluiddruid's defense. It's likely that, long before posting it, she made sure that she both implicated and exonerated scum and did the same with Mafia.

There are some examples for this: her list of "most trusted" to "least trusted", her attacks/defenses of certain players, etc. etc.

And then there are even more subtle ones. There is, for instance, the fact that she tried, again, to obfuscate the events of the first day. Specifically, the vote swing that saved Lightnin', by making it appear that the vote swing had involved Projammer. Of course, by changing the perception of the events of the first day, one could argue she was actually trying to protect herself look, the previous "vote swing" happened between two confirmed townies; the same happened with me

However, I still hold to my theory: On Day One there was a vote swing to help Lightnin' escape; on Day Three the same technique was used to help another scum (fluiddruid) escape.

[Gadarene]

Updated Vote Count

2 -- Lightnin' (DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail)
2 -- CaerieD (Lightnin', SnakesCatLady)
2 -- SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts, SnakesCatLady)
1 -- nesta (Hal Briston)

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

I do not think that post means what you think it means...

[DiggitCamara]

I do not think that post means what you think it means...
Who you talkin' to, CTTDSWHC?

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

:smack: Gadrene

SnakesCatLady has not voted for herself.

[SnakesCatLady]

Updated Vote Count

2 -- Lightnin' (DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail)
2 -- CaerieD (Lightnin', SnakesCatLady)
2 -- SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts, SnakesCatLady)
1 -- nesta (Hal Briston)


I didn't vote for myself because I know I'm not scum.
I'm also not allowed two votes!

[Gadarene]

Picky picky! The first vote count I get even remotely wrong, and do I get cut any slack? No sir, I do not. Tough crowd. :p

Corrected Updated Vote Count

2 -- Lightnin' (DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail)
2 -- CaerieD (Lightnin', SnakesCatLady)
2 -- SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts, CaerieD)
1 -- nesta (Hal Briston)

[CaerieD]

Now I'm left wondering what Gadarene would do if we did start voting for ourselves...

[Gadarene]

Now I'm left wondering what Gadarene would do if we did start voting for ourselves...

Depends on whether or not you could get enough people to go along with you. :)

[CaerieD]

Depends on whether or not you could get enough people to go along with you. :)

Ahh, I'll keep that in mind for the next game. :D

[DiggitCamara]

ummm... a question for Gadarene (sorry if it has been asked before)

Can the scum communicate during the day in their secret thread?

[Gadarene]

Can the scum communicate during the day in their secret thread?

Nope.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

So, my wondering if role assignments were random was in some way a scum tell, even though it has come out that some GMs don't randomly assign? Ohhhh-kay then.


At the time that I made your favorite post (Page 9, #426), I was not aware that GMs sometimes manually assign roles, and I was apparently not alone in my ignorance.

tirial validates my observation shortly thereafter in post #428. I also nterpreted nesta's[b] more recent post as another validation of my gut reaction at the time that I made the post, i.e. prior to the revelation that GMs do indeed assign roles manually.

[b]nesta then goes on to say that it was your reaction to my suspicion that he found curiously over-dramatic.

[tirial]

Going mainly by patterns:

The simple option has Blastermaster, CaerieD, Lightnin and Rachm Qoch as the remaining scum suspects.
The complicated option has Idle Thoughts, Hal Briston, Lemur866, and fluiddruid (rigd - Rest In Great Discomfort) as scum suspects.

I have absolutely no clue which one is right, if any, if at all. The truth is probably somewhere in between.

I'm tempted to vote for Lightnin' because I did on Day two, and he's only really given more ammuniton since. On the other hand, that's the lazy option.

How long until the day ends? I've got reading to do.

[Gadarene]

How long until the day ends? I've got reading to do.

Tomorrow at around 7 p.m. my time.

[Hal Briston]

nesta then goes on to say that it was your reaction to my suspicion that he found curiously over-dramatic.Understood. I personally disagree, but I understand.

Thing is, that was the first thing in this game that really, really jumped out at me, so I grabbed onto it. While going back through posts, it seems to me that was the only thing I had going against you. The basis for all the...what did you call them? Pokes? Jabs? Either way, that's probably where they stem from. I don't think I've found anything since, so you're rapidly falling off my scumdar.

Trouble is, the bit about whether or not a GM would go non-random is no longer up for debate, and nesta knew that. However, he still brought up that even questioning it was odd. That is simply not the case. The only way it even becomes anywhere near worth mentioning is if nesta is scum attempting to push further suspicion my way.

Very clever move on the mafia's part, actually. Just hope no one gets suckered by it.

[Millit the Frail]

Tomorrow at around 7 p.m. my time.

Ah, I thought it was today at 7PM. Hence my panic! Still, I hope we can have a lot of good productive discussion before the lynch is upon us.

[Gadarene]

Ah, I thought it was today at 7PM. Hence my panic!


Whoops. :smack: Upon further review, you're absolutely right. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8566928&postcount=1401) Better alert folk to that.

The day ends in four and a half hours. Just FYI.

Thanks, Millit.

[Lightnin']

Going mainly by patterns:

The simple option has Blastermaster, CaerieD, Lightnin and Rachm Qoch as the remaining scum suspects.
The complicated option has Idle Thoughts, Hal Briston, Lemur866, and fluiddruid (rigd - Rest In Great Discomfort) as scum suspects.


Did I miss something? I thought we didn't know how many Mafia exist in the game. I've been kind of working on the assumption that we started with four (which would leave us with three, unless there's been a recruitment)- but that's probably because I read someone else's guess much earlier on.


I'm tempted to vote for Lightnin' because I did on Day two, and he's only really given more ammuniton since.

So basically, you didn't even read my answers to your questions.

[Lightnin']

Ah, I should add... I'm going to be out of town Thursday night through Saturday morning for an interview. This time I'll be in the States, though, so my phone *might* allow me to read the thread and add small posts.

Man, I really need a laptop.

[Millit the Frail]

Whoops. :smack: Upon further review, you're absolutely right. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8566928&postcount=1401) Better alert folk to that.

The day ends in four and a half hours. Just FYI.

Thanks, Millit.


Oh, God! Panic!! :eek:

Only SEVEN people have voted. This is not good. More than half of the votes have yet to come in. The scum could totally pull something now. They could tip the scales in favor of any of our "nominees," as no one has more than two votes right now. Or someone could go from zero to eight by nightfall. In any case, I'm going to be in class when IT happens. Oh, the agony!

I'm standing on my vote for Lightnin'. Tread carefully....but please vote!

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Bah. I was thinking we had till tomorrow too.

I'm going to have to throw my vote in for Lightnin'.

With the top three people in the current vote tally already on my watch list, it came down to a preference of voting bedfellows. Choosing CarieD or SnakesCatLady would have put me in cahoots with some of the very same folks that am watching.

Time will tell if this will prove to be wise, dumb, or lucky.

[tirial]

Did I miss something? I thought we didn't know how many Mafia exist in the game. I've been kind of working on the assumption that we started with four (which would leave us with three, unless there's been a recruitment)- but that's probably because I read someone else's guess much earlier on.You seem to have missed every post in the game refering to the number of mafia as 4-6. This is because less than 4 and the mafia usually don't win, and more than 6 and they normally always win. Allowing for the recuit, this makes 4 or 5 the most likely starting number. With one gone, and a possible recruit the number is likely to be anywhere between 3 and 5.

Also you missed the fact I said "scum suspects" not scum, because I was flagging up the highest options in each case, not making definitive pronouncements.

So basically, you didn't even read my answers to your questions.Read them. You didn't answer the questions about why you were incriminating yourself, or even whether you understood how your actions could be taken as incriminating.

And from your earlier post: "Now that it's been revealed that FD was Scum, I'm switching back to my initial suspect, CaerieD."Can you understand why I might do the same thing? My Day Two target was you.

[Lightnin']

You seem to have missed every post in the game refering to the number of mafia as 4-6. This is because less than 4 and the mafia usually don't win, and more than 6 and they normally always win. Allowing for the recuit, this makes 4 or 5 the most likely starting number. With one gone, and a possible recruit the number is likely to be anywhere between 3 and 5.

I just wanted that cleared up. I'd seen those posts, and I'd been working on the assumption that there were three left, barring recruitments (entirely possible, as there've been two no-kill days and we only have one Do-Gooder left). You seem pretty certain of the number of remaining scum in your previous post, however.


Read them. You didn't answer the questions about why you were incriminating yourself, or even whether you understood how your actions could be taken as incriminating.

Maybe it's because I'm a little confused- my "incriminating actions" seem circumstantial at best, and easily explained by my being new to the game and voting poorly, due to lack of information, the first three days.

As to your other questions, in my hurry to answer your initial questions, I'd missed the other questions you'd asked later on. Here, I'll answer them now.


a) when I make a post saying that you are either inept or scum, did you protest you weren't inept? I'd have expected you to protest you weren't either, or that you weren't scum.

So basically, my only two options are being inept, or being scum. Gotcha. Because I didn't protest being both, I'm Scum. That's your reason to suspect me?

Frankly, that's pretty insulting. You say I'm Scum- but if it turns out I'm Town, I'm inept. I actually came *this close* to just quitting the game right then.


b) why when voting for CaerieD didn't you justify it for any of the many reasons that don't incriminate you? Instead you used my post which does.

Because the reason I had for CaerieD was what I'd given. If it implicated me, well, whatever- the fact that going after her in the way I did revealed a Scum on the day before should've exonerated me.


And from your earlier post: Can you understand why I might do the same thing? My Day Two target was you.

Certainly. However, if you're going to ask me those questions, at least acknowledge the fact that I answered them. If you're still suspicious of me, that's fine- but if you're not going to acknowledge the answers I gave you, don't bother asking 'em.

Man, I can't wait to be lynched. Granted, it'll mean I'm inept, by elimination, but I can only imagine you'll be next on the rope.

[Idle Thoughts]

Gee, SCL, I don't see many people jumping on the bandwagon for you, do you? I'd think if you really WERE town, all the scum would be rushing to vote for you just to make me look scummy the next day. Where are all the votes for you? Or are scum staying away from you and voting for other people?

[Hal Briston]

Now I'm left wondering what Gadarene would do if we did start voting for ourselves...It's been done (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8562235&postcount=3811).

[SnakesCatLady]

Gee, SCL, I don't see many people jumping on the bandwagon for you, do you? I'd think if you really WERE town, all the scum would be rushing to vote for you just to make me look scummy the next day. Where are all the votes for you? Or are scum staying away from you and voting for other people?

I'm not sure how others vote, but I am certainly not going to vote for someone I'm not sure of just to make another player "look scummy". If you are scum, it will be told soon enough. We've lost enough townies already.

[Lemur866]

Arg, I thought we had longer. So it comes down to the wire, and we have to vote. I'm going to go out on a limb and vote SnakesCatLady.

I don't have any strong feelings for or against anyone left in the game, but I think we caught the mafia in a double-bluff with the Kyrie-Fluiddruid saga. Kyrie fingers Fluidddruid, they kill Kyrie, thinking we'd suspect Fluiddruid LESS because it would be too obvious to kill someone for suspecting a real mafiosi. Except Fluiddruid really was scum. So...in her last post, Fluiddruid does everything possible to tell us that SnakesCatLady is scum.

What does that mean to me?

Most likely that Fluiddruid was trying to protect SnakesCatLady, under the theory that once she was dead we'd think everything she said was a lie. Don't throw me in that briar patch! Maybe we'd be better off just pretending that last post never happened, but I don't think we can afford to throw out information, even though we know every scrap of that information was designed to mislead us.

This alone wouldn't really be enough, but adding it to my allready existing gut feeling against SnakesCatLady, and it tips the scales.

[nesta]

Now, I see two possibilities here:
1. You're town -- you wanted to see if there was anything to the rising suspicion against me, so you picked through all my posts and culled that which you thought relevant. You somehow missed a lot of obvious answers, but you didn't mean to. You simply had the town's best interest at heart, and so you presented your evidence with honesty.

Ding ding ding. Except I don't think I missed a lot of obvious answers. I am aware of why a legitimate townie might make some of the mistakes you've made, but I'm also aware of why scum might make them intentionally. I freely admit that I approached your posts looking for signs of scuminess, because I'd really like figure out who the remaining scum are.

It wasn't any one action that has made me more suspicious of you than I was before, but the sum total. After I'd reviewed all your posts I realized that most of them did things that scum would do, and very few of them (if any) did things scum wouldn't do. If you think I missed some that prove your towniness please point them out.

Actually, I believe you know exactly where I stand.
I really wish I did.

<shrug> Newbie mistake. Yup...it was my first game post, and it seemed like something I should get out the way at the time. At that point, I had read the first few days of Werewolf, and hadn't looked into the first Mafia thread at all. I figured it was a standard move (obviously, I now realize it's not a good thing to do at all).
Yeah, it could have been a newbie mistake, of either a townie, scum, or other power role. I think it's more likely that it would be a scum newbie mistake, which is why I listed it. I also pointed it out to put Kyrie Eleison's FOS of you in context. Kyrie is confirmed town, and had some pretty good instincts early in the game, so her FOS carries a little more weight with me than most others'.

Yeah, that was me. I killed them. Both of them. They never saw it coming...got them both, completely on my own.
Yes, that's exactly what I said. You must be the only scum, because you so directly killed both of them. Thank you for clearing that up.

Oh, wait, no, I remember now -- I clearly said in the quoted post that my suspicions against NAF were wavering, and I later unvoted him. I also clearly explained my suspicions against percypercy, and for them to influence anyone else's vote, that person would have to have had the same opinion of DiggitCamara that I had.
It was early in the game, so I don't put much weight on your suspicion of NAF and percypercy, but it is a data point worth remembering that you were one of those who were casting suspicion on two confirmed townies, and one of them wound up lynched on Day 1.

Also, you didn't answer this part, which was the more important part of that point:

Also notice dnooman, who he says is pinging heavily townie. Keep that in mind as he switches to helping to get dnooman lynched the next day.
So, my wondering if role assignments were random was in some way a scum tell, even though it has come out that some GMs don't randomly assign? Ohhhh-kay then.
I didn't say your question is a scum tell. Please re-read that section of my post. I said:

This post seems a little over-defensive to me. I didn't think ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies's gut feeling that neither Hal Briston or Idle Thoughts would legitimately be pondering this issue is absurd. Later Idle Thoughts says that in games he runs roles aren't assigned randomly, but Hal Briston's reaction seemed over the top.
This was pointing out your post replying to ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies's who FOSed you based on her gut feeling. In your over-defensive post you said:

Maybe I'm not paying close enough attention, but that has to be one of the single most absurd statements I've seen in here so far.
That's what I was pointing out, not your original role assignment question. Having a gut feeling that someone isn't asking a question for the town's benefit, but instead trying to shape how that player is perceived, isn't absurd. Taken in context, at that point in the game, it was a perfectly legitimate feeling to have, and one I somewhat shared at the time. You saying it was one of the single most absurd statements so far was a little absurd itself.

Ok, let's get this straight.

You ask "Who derailed the Projammerwagon?"
I say "It looks like dnooman suggested it here".

You ask a question, I give a factual answer. Woah, good thing you pointed that out to everyone.
Yes, you were answering my question, and the answer was factual, but it doesn't make the answer any less significant. I pointed this post out for two reasons: it was the first suspicion anyone had cast on dnooman on Day 2, the day he was lynched; also, I then go on to post a number of other posts throughout the day where you suspect dnooman, so this first post seemed relevant.

Actually, no. Sorry if it was misleading, but the names were in no particular order. I was equally suspicious of the both of them.
I assumed it was in order of most to least scummy. I think I assumed this because you voted for Projammer that day and not fluiddruid, and stated at the time of your vote you were slightly more suspicious of Projammer than fluiddruid.

Or, it could have something to do with the printout of Gadarene's roles post tacked up two feet to my right.
Fair enough. I debated including that part, but decided to because I remembered being surprised that I had missed the rule myself, but also to contrast this familiarity with the rules against asking for clarification later on if the Mafia were aware each other's identities during Day 1, which I thought was already well established.

Now, here's where my problem comes in. I know I'm not scum. But it's been said, quite accurately, that in order for the town to win we have to have the ability to think like scum. So let's do that for a minute, shall we?

Hi everyone, I'm scum! I want to spread paranoia among the townies and get them at each other's throats.
...


Yes, scum are going to spread paranoia. They might even do it by going through each one of your posts and pointing out all the scummy behavior you've had. They want townies lynched. But you know what, townies might also go through all your posts, and look for scummy behavior you've had, because townies want to lynch scum. See the problem with your scenario that anybody who looks for scum tells in your posts is scum?

Vote nesta
[color removed]

Honestly, I was tempted to vote for you, all retaliatory like. You see, I did build up a healthy suspicion of you while going through your posts, and I don't feel a vote for you would be entirely misplaced. I don't like your reaction to my post, and your assumption that anyone who goes through your posts and points out why you might be scum is worthy of a vote. Yes, that vote was over-defensive.

I'm not going to vote for you yet, though, because hell, I'm still no more sure than I was last night. I think it's more important I choose someone to vote for between Lightnin' and CaerieD, since they've been near the top of my suspicion list for a lot longer than you.

[tirial]

Can we have an updated vote count?

[Hal Briston]

Can we have an updated vote count?By my count, I have it as:
3 -- Lightnin' (DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)
3 -- SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts, CaerieD, Lemur866)
2 -- CaerieD (Lightnin', SnakesCatLady)
1 -- nesta (Hal Briston)

[Gadarene]

Updated Vote Count

3 -- Lightnin' (DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)
3 -- SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts, CaerieD, Lemur866)
2 -- CaerieD (Lightnin', SnakesCatLady)
1 -- nesta (Hal Briston)

[SnakesCatLady]

I'm only human, and it is very tempting to change my vote from CaerieD to Lightnin' to try to avoid being lynched. I'm not going to do it, though, because I want the town to see just how hard Idle Thoughts has worked to lynch a townie - and wonder just why he would do that. Maybe my death will be of benefit to the town.

So, since I am not sure of the time difference between Gadarene and myself, I am going to go ahead and put out my suspect list.

CaerieD, for the reasons I have already listed.
ComeDarkCookies - voted Projammer on Days 2 & 3 and voted for fluiddruid late.
Hal Briston is another who voted for fluiddruid late after voting for townies on Day 2 & 3.
Omi no Kami is suspicious to me because of the record of not voting.
Lightnin' is another who voted townies - Days 1, 2 & 3, then voted for fluiddruid late.

[Gadarene]

So, since I am not sure of the time difference between Gadarene and myself

Approximately +0 hours.

[nesta]

Right now I think Lightnin' and CaerieD, my leading suspects, have about equal chances of being scum. Both have played the game in such a way that they've practically condemned themselves, and both are partially using that as a defense. They've both maxed out my scumometer many times.

I'm going to vote Lightnin'. I really hope he's scum, because if not, I actually worry he might take the fact that the town didn't trust him personally.

[Gadarene]

Updated Vote Count

4 -- Lightnin' (DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta)
3 -- SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts, CaerieD, Lemur866)
2 -- CaerieD (Lightnin', SnakesCatLady)
1 -- nesta (Hal Briston)

[Idle Thoughts]

Guys, I really don't see why everyone is always on Lightnin'. I just have a bad feeling about it (like I did with Projammer.

[SnakesCatLady]

We need to hear from tirial, BlasterMaster, Rache Qoch and Omi no Kami. I don't think any of them have said that they would be away, and not voting (IMO) looks really bad... .

[tirial]

I honestly can't choose between CaerieD and Lightnin', simply because the voting pattern ties tham closely together.

I am tempted to vote CaerieD as it reveals a lot of other posters' likely alliances, but I can't justify lynching a townie for information. Honestly the only thing that might edge Lightnin' ahead is the Day Three rush vote.

This doesn't sit well with me. I am actually considering voting No Lynch. I get a Day 2 vibe here - I think we are in a town on town again.

That said it brings me back to my second tier suspects.

[Omi no Kami]

I just don't see scuminess in either of our suspects, really. Lightnin' never came off as scummy, and CaerieD's defense seems quite reasonable. I think it's essential that we don't get another random vote, so I'll hedge my bets by

voting Rache Qoch

[Gadarene]

I assume that was supposed to be blue, Omi? :)

[Idle Thoughts]

Well, since it's almost night, here's my thoughts (just in case I get hit).

FIRST of all....some thoughts.

One of the no-kill nights had to have been a save. Either by the Doc or the Night Watchman. It had to be. BOTH of them could be, yeah, but we don't know. All we know is, one of them had to be. Now let's say it was the second night. Doesn't help us much, plus doesn't make a whole lot of sense and would be a bit more odds against.

But let's say it was the first night. Let's say it was the doctor saved as they tried to hit the Doc.

Well, if they did that (and there's a 50 percent chance it was that) and found it was blocked, then they'd probably assume they knew who the Doc was and the next night was a recruit.

Yeah, maybe the Night Watchman DID get lucky and I think the mafia would also consider this. But in the end, I think the odds are better that they had thought they found the Doc (since it is much better odds too) and tried recruiting. It was also coming after a day when they just lost one of their own, so I think it makes even more sense.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, on a completely other tangent.....I'm trying to figure who they could have tried killing on the saved night. Let's think it over.

There are two players that are really strong in this game and experienced. Tirial and I. Both have played in games before and both are just about the highest posters in this thread with really long and in-depth and aggressive like posts.

So it stands to reason (to me, at least) that they'd try to take one of us out. So let's say they did do this. Let's say that they tried, the first no-kill night, wacking tirial and found they couldn't (either because she's the Doc or because the Night Watchman (her or other) saved her).

It seems reasonable. It seems even likely if you think about it (and are ACTUALLY, REALLY pro-town).

So the second night, just taking a risk/chance, they recruit (and the second night appears as a no-kill) her.

Now, maybe she was the Doc and maybe she isn't and maybe none of this matters cause it was all just lucky NW anyway, but I think, nay have a strong feeling, that one of those two nights (the second, I feel) was a recruit of the person they tried to waste the night before.

Think about it. The night before, if it was a save (and again, ONE of them WAS, without a doubt, a save), they'd know either that person they tried to go for was the Doc or just happened to be chosen right by the NW. I think they took their chances and tried recruiting.

Because it wasn't me they recruited..so I tend to think that the only other player that was making a big case (tirial) was captured.

So, first and foremost, I'm suspicious of tirial.

--------------------------------------

However she doesn't hold my STRONGEST or HIGHEST suspicion. That goes to SnakesCatlady as I said for many reasons and who I'm voting for.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now let's look back.
I have, in two other posts in here, in the past, said I felt that Blaster Masters friendliness felt a bit too false. I still feel this way, yet DiggitCamara as of late has been really tripping my meter too. These two have rose up on my meter considerabley. Like the case with Rachm Qoch and SCL I said earlier, they BOTH may be scum...but I think that at least ONE of them is for sure (and again, I can only vote one at a time anyway so that point is moot).

I feel a bit stonger about DiggitCamara being one than Blaster Master. But not by much.
---------------------------------------------------

And lastly we have Lemur688, who I was suspicious from at the very beginning of the game but who had faded since, but is now popping up again due to, well, a lot of things, mostly that whole thing about INSISTING it would be better for power roles to be killed (at night) rather then anything else. I found this highly odd (and said so at the time a few times to him) and still do. He's also one of them, as tirial pointed out when I feel she was still pro-town, that asked about the first no-kill and tried to figure out if it was the Doc or some other thing.
---------------------------------------------------------

So, in the end, what do we have? Well..in case I bite it tonight, we have:

SCL
DiggitCamara (or possibly BM)
Lemur
and tirial*

As people I think are scum.

*recruited


Everyone else I'm still suspicious of and don't trust entirely, but they're all below these four and a half players.


Okay. I'm done. Bring on the night. *runs and hides*

[Lemur866]

This doesn't sit well with me. I am actually considering voting No Lynch. I get a Day 2 vibe here - I think we are in a town on town again.

That said it brings me back to my second tier suspects.

I think we've got a problem that people are willing to vote against other players, but aren't very willing to stick up for them. The reason is obvious, no one wants to stick their neck out for someone who might turn out to be scum. But what you can do is argue against arguments you don't agree with. So if you see Player A arguing that Player B is scummy for bad reasons, don't just put Player A on your possible scum list, publicly argue against them and point out why they're wrong.

If you think the top vote-getters aren't scummy, tell us why and try to convince the people who voted against them to change their votes. And in general you should vote for the person at the top of your scum list, no matter how few votes they've got. The exception is if there are two main candidates, and one is on your lean-scum list and the other isn't. It might be worth it to forgo voting against a candidate you're more sure about in order prevent a lynch of a candidate you feel isn't scum.

[tirial]

Having board trouble - 15 minutes to submit. Will post reasons when board stable.

Every one of current crop has a person I suspect in it - hence why it looks like town on town.

On preview - I agree with Omi No Kami. I will vote Blastermaster because he was part of the swings (with CaerieD) on Day One and Three but no one seems to have taken him up on it.
vote Blastermaster

Problem is I can guess how the two remaining voters are likely to vote and am fighting the urge to use my vote to force a tie.

Voting Blocks:

For a starting point on both Day One and Day Three Blastermaster voted late, gave reasons for his vote and CaerieD then changed vote to vote with him. Assuming this indicates a voting block, how could it be expanded?

On Day One, the swing this caused got Lightnin' (U), Omi No Kami (U) and Projammer (T) out of danger of being lynched.
On Day Three the swing resulted in Projammer (T) being lynched while saving Fluiddruid (S). They swung to a wagon started by Lightnin' (U).

Rachm Qoch seemed close with CaerieD for the first few days, including two posts which were "me too". Interestingly, he said that P734 "If a sizeable proportion of Projammer's vote switch off that is something we should look for." Two comments on this:
a) Projammer as we now know is town.
b) If this logic were applied to Day 3 then we should look at the swing there.

If fluiddruid was Kyrie's crumb, then one of Blastermaster's defenses disappear. CaerieD is one of the few people still argung that fluiddruid wasn't the crumb, which now only benefits Blastermaster.

Day Two: Around P708 CaerieD and Blastermaster have a bit of a set to, but Blastermaster's vote against CaerieD is easily overlooked in the dnooman/Projammer bandwagon. P740 CaerieD "Looking over posting history and everything else, I'm far more comfortable voting for dnooman than Lightnin' at this point."
Rachm Qoch P756 "I'll have to differ with CaerieD here, and upon reviewing the thread in full (again!) I must say the balance now tips against Projammer" creates a 5-5 tie.

fluiddruid P781 "Looking for such obvious links so early in the game isn't going to help. There is a definite risk to defending other players facing a clear lynch, period -- if you're scum and they're scum, you've created a connection between the two of you, and if you're town and they're scum, you've basically hung yourself at the expense of Town. "
CaerieD P787 "They aren't going to purposefully sacrifice one of their own, but they're not going to sacrifice the whole lot of themselves for one either. When your goal at the end of the game is numbers, it only makes sense to avoid an "all for one and one for all" mentality. To play the game looking for that kind of behavior is folly, because it's not going to happen. It's too obvious for them to make a production out of saving one another."
P800 Lemur866 "A mafiosi is much more likely to pile on another vote onto a townie than vociferously defend another mafiosi. "
Taken together, these posts may possibly explain the vote swings in Day One and Three.

On preview FOS Idle Thoughts. Thanks for ringing a lot of alarm bells. Sorry, you are an experienced player who raised that fact on Day One, putting yourself straight in line for a kill, and you keep raising it. You seem pretty certain you won't get killed. And as an experienced player you would also know that the first reaction of an experienced townie to someone discussing powerroles is usually to want to yell STFU.

Tell me, if last night was a recruit, why wouldn't they have gone for you? In the absence of the Detective you're a great target for one, you are largely trusted, and you've just spent today trying to put SnakesCatLady on the stand for her focusing on lynching fluiddruid for three days as opposed to most of our two.

[Gadarene]

Updated Vote Count

4 -- Lightnin' (DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta)
3 -- SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts, CaerieD, Lemur866)
2 -- CaerieD (Lightnin', SnakesCatLady)
1 -- nesta (Hal Briston)
1 -- Rachm Qoch (Omi No Kami)
1 -- Blaster Master (tirial)

Two hours left.

[Lightnin']

I'm going to vote Lightnin'. I really hope he's scum, because if not, I actually worry he might take the fact that the town didn't trust him personally.

Nah, don't worry about that. I've been very exasperated throughout the entire game, as it seemed that some players decided I was scum from day one, and see everything I do as being ever more suspicious (including the fact that I didn't get lynched, which is even more irritating), and nothing I can do or say will change their minds.

I wouldn't hold a grudge or nothin'. I'd just enjoy reading the posts on the day after I get lynched. I might even say, "I told ya so!"
:)

[tirial]

I think we've got a problem that people are willing to vote against other players, but aren't very willing to stick up for them. The reason is obvious, no one wants to stick their neck out for someone who might turn out to be scum. But what you can do is argue against arguments you don't agree with. So if you see Player A arguing that Player B is scummy for bad reasons, don't just put Player A on your possible scum list, publicly argue against them and point out why they're wrong.

If you think the top vote-getters aren't scummy, tell us why and try to convince the people who voted against them to change their votes. And in general you should vote for the person at the top of your scum list, no matter how few votes they've got. The exception is if there are two main candidates, and one is on your lean-scum list and the other isn't. It might be worth it to forgo voting against a candidate you're more sure about in order prevent a lynch of a candidate you feel isn't scum.

Problem I have is its the facts, not the arguments that are causing the issue. Weighed up the evidence against both is about equal, and pretty tied so if one is the other isn't.

And I'm not going to try and change anyone's votes, because its too easy to make a good case based on bad logic/evidence, whip up hysteria and get an innocent lynched (did I mention I'm a paranoia player?)

We got a scum yesterday and at least one of the two nights without kills will have been the doc/nightwatchman, so we are currently ahead. If we vote no lynch, it lets the mafia take initiative again - and I doubt they will kill anyone that will give us information.

unvote Blastermaster
Vote Idle Thoughts
I have been wondering about you for a while. However, you haven't really given me much to work with. As an experienced player this is not surprising. Your last post however, did start me wondering why you were so certain there was a recruitment. And frankly, if you were the one that was recruited.

I might be wrong - I've been wrong before. However after last night, I don't think so. Your constant drive towards SnakesCatLady today, and constant push into power roles today, are actions which no experienced player would do were they really town.

I didn't want to raise this without a smoking gun because I am not looking forward to trying to go head to head with you - you do have more experience at this game than I do. None the less, I do believe it likely you are scum (I have raised this before) and therefore shall vote for you.

[Hal Briston]

Quick question for those voting Lightin' -- is anything major, beyond voting record, that is causing the suspicion against him?

[Idle Thoughts]

On preview FOS Idle Thoughts. Thanks for ringing a lot of alarm bells. Sorry, you are an experienced player who raised that fact on Day One, putting yourself straight in line for a kill, and you keep raising it. You seem pretty certain you won't get killed. And as an experienced player you would also know that the first reaction of an experienced townie to someone discussing powerroles is usually to want to yell STFU.


bolding mine.

Yeah yeah yeah...I know that as well as you. I've even seen in this game already. But see, FIRST of all, I'm not saying you are or aren't the Doc. I'm just saying it makes the MOST SENSE if they tried hitting and found they couldn't kill...and on the other side...it makes sense they would have gone for one of us.

So all I'm saying is, I think that they tried hitting you and found they couldn't.....for WHATEVER reason. Hell, maybe it was because the Night Watchman (whoever THAT is-- not implying it's you OR that you're the Doc either) made the save......and so they took their chances and recruited you.


Because SERIOUSLY. WHY would the first no kill night be a recruit? That doesn't make any sense. They didn't have anything to gain as pointed out by a million and one people. They had nothing to go on.

And since ONE of the two nights HAD TO HAVE BEEN A SAVE, I'm thinking it was the first one since, again, recruitment makes no sense.

SO, the first night was a save. Why don't we just PUT it out there since that's a 99 percent likely thing? Why don't we just go along (UNTIL we learn or find out different) with that being the case to help us out more?

The first night was a save, let's say. What happens the next night, huh? What, another save? Please. I doubt the NW would be that lucky, for one. For two, why would they try hitting a person they already were blocked on? They'd know it was either a Doc protection or the NW save....so it's GOOD ODDS that that person is the Doc.


This isn't being dumb for town. This is THINKING things that are COMMON SENSE and that make sense when you think about them. These are reasonable things when you put them through your head. That is, if one is really protown, I'd think.

Sure, maybe you still are town. But if you were, would you be so defensive and accusatory toward me right away? Wouldn't you want to work together and go "hmm, well, that DOES make sense, but no, I'm still pro-town :p". Flying off the handle doesn't look too well either. And yeah, I know it's because you think I'm being stupid by talking about it, but you can't deny it would make perfect sense and explain things.

I dunno...maybe it wasn't you they tried to hit and all. I have NO idea. All I'm saying is...that first no kill night was a save (almost had to be) and I think that second one was them recruiting whoever it was they TRIED the first no kill night.

The only reason I think it's YOU is because both you and I are the only main posters in here who also have experience and it makes sense to try to get one of us out, you know?

And yeah, you could think the same about me too. You have that right and it's perfectly possible. I'm saying it is to you..even though I'm saying the same to you and you're attacking me now. :p

[Blaster Master]

Going mainly by patterns:

The simple option has Blastermaster, CaerieD, Lightnin and Rachm Qoch as the remaining scum suspects.
The complicated option has Idle Thoughts, Hal Briston, Lemur866, and fluiddruid (rigd - Rest In Great Discomfort) as scum suspects.

Can you give a little more behind how you're seeing these patterns. Are you talking about voting blocs?


As far as voting, because I too thought we had another 24 hours, I've already stated my cases against each of the top three. That said, I still think SCL is scummy, but the part that pushes me over the edge on her is that fluiddruid attacked her, and it looks like a bluff on her part. However, as she and has pointed out, it's a dangerous game trying to determine how deep the bluffing goes. OTOH, as Idle Thoughts has pointed out, it makes the maximum likelihood is that it is a single bluff to attempt to nip the slight uptrend in her suspicion in the bud. However, because of the danger of this whole double-bluff game, I'm inclined to let the lynch tonight, and the night's results shed some more light .

Lightnin' looks scummy to me as well, and he's done little today to allay my suspicion, and plenty to make me more suspicious. The problem is, like with SCL, it depends highly on if the percypercy bandwagon on day one was in fact pushed by fluiddruid to save Lightnin', whether she pushed it in a bluff (hoping that it might be viewed as an attempt to save scum to cast suspicion on a townie) or if it was neither. Unlike with SCL, the maximum likelihood is strongly in favor of it being an attempt to save scum specifically because they had no time strategize. OTOH, the more suspicious I become of him, the more unsure I am if it is because he's actually scum, or just lacks the experience to realize how anti-town some of his actions seem (eg, a rush to lynch Projammer), and how befuddling the rest seem (eg, incriminating himself in a vote for CaerieD) . As much as I want to go ahead and vote here, per Occam's Razor, the simpler solution (that he just lacks experience) is far more likely than the alternative (well crafted plan, since day one, to "play dumb"), I just can't justify this vote until I've rethought it, which I obviously don't have enough time to do.

This brings me to CaerieD who has consistently looked suspicious to me, and I'm wondering if the whole case against Lightnin' and/or SCL hasn't been pushed because the mafia know how easy of a target they are now. Besides earlier reasons for suspecting CaerieD, two things bother me about her. First, is her defense of fluiddruid. Her behavior up until yesterday looked very much like they were in cahoots, and then, when it appears the mafia realized fluiddruid was a lost cause and abandoned her to be lynched, CaerieD was the most obvious change in that department by going from defending her to voting for her. Second, is her voting record, namely either being the last to vote for a townie (in the case of percypercy and Projammer), or in voting very safely for scum (in the case of fluiddruid).

So, without further ado vote CaerieD.


On preview:
tirial I appreciate your reasons for voting for me, and I cannot defend them at this time because I cannot conclusively say what the status of CaerieD is. What does strike me as odd, though, is that you seem to think CaerieD and I are in a block together, yet you vote for me while seeming to admit that that she has more evidence against her AND failing to realize that she already has two votes (three, when mine gets tallied) and actually has a chance of getting lynched. I was fairly confident that you were pro-town early yesterday, but today your posturing has been WAY over the top. This whole "I'm so pro-town, they must have gone after me, and the doctor must have known I was worth protecting" plus your suddenly questionable reasoning is leading me to believe you very well may have been recruited last night. Of course, that said, I'm also not as sure of Idle Thoughts for the similar reasons, but less so.

[Idle Thoughts]

unvote Blastermaster
Vote Idle Thoughts
I have been wondering about you for a while. However, you haven't really given me much to work with. As an experienced player this is not surprising. Your last post however, did start me wondering why you were so certain there was a recruitment. And frankly, if you were the one that was recruited.

I might be wrong - I've been wrong before. However after last night, I don't think so. Your constant drive towards SnakesCatLady today, and constant push into power roles today, are actions which no experienced player would do were they really town.

Hey, vote for me from now on if you want. You won't see me lashing out or getting all attack-y.

Yeah I have a constant drive toward her. it makes the most sense if you really look at it and think about it.

I didn't want to raise this without a smoking gun because I am not looking forward to trying to go head to head with you - you do have more experience at this game than I do. None the less, I do believe it likely you are scum (I have raised this before) and therefore shall vote for you.

Hey, that's fine. I think you are too, as I said. Although, I have to be honest here, I don't think you were all this time. I think you're recent scum.

Guess by the end of the game, we'll see, won't we?

[Gadarene]

Updated Vote Count

4 -- Lightnin' (DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta)
3 -- SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts, CaerieD, Lemur866)
3 -- CaerieD (Lightnin', SnakesCatLady, Blaster Master)
1 -- nesta (Hal Briston)
1 -- Rachm Qoch (Omi No Kami)
1 -- Idle Thoughts (tirial)

Dusk falls in seventy-five minutes.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Quick question for those voting Lightin' -- is anything major, beyond voting record, that is causing the suspicion against him?

90% voting record
5% posts he made on or near Game Day 1, and the posts that linger on that day later in the game
5% who is voting elsewhere

[tirial]

Sure, maybe you still are town. But if you were, would you be so defensive and accusatory toward me right away? Wouldn't you want to work together and go "hmm, well, that DOES make sense, but no, I'm still pro-town Flying off the handle doesn't look too well either. And yeah, I know it's because you think I'm being stupid by talking about it, but you can't deny it would make perfect sense and explain things. Sorry - I wasn't aware I had flown off the handle. Actually, looking at my post again, I'm still not aware I flew off the handle. Where do you see that, because I don't see anything particularly angry in it. I do see several logical reasons why I think you were recruited. However, I said the town would be in trouble if you were recruited, and I think I was right. We are.
WHY would the first no kill night be a recruit?I don't know - I never suggested that. Why don't you tell me, since its your idea?

Yeah yeah yeah...I know that as well as you. I've even seen in this game already. But see, FIRST of all, I'm not saying you are or aren't the Doc. I'm just saying it makes the MOST SENSE if they tried hitting and found they couldn't kill...and on the other side...it makes sense they would have gone for one of us.I agree. However, although you aren't my first pick for the Doctor, it is likely they picked up a detail about the poster I believe to be the Doctor I mentioned - a slip on my part as that information did not need to be given out and wasn't accurate - and recruited the most likely candidate. Someone who was repeatedly stating they were experienced, so would have the experience to spot my scheme and play along. You.
I think that they tried hitting you and found they couldn't.....Really? You didn't believe that scheme could have worked before. You had to be reminded of it repeatedly the day before. Now you are basing your whole case on it? What changed overnight? The no-kill wouldn't suddenly make you start believing my scheme worked, unless you'd come into new information.
For two, why would they try hitting a person they already were blocked on? As mentioned, first night I believe was the result of the Doc+Decoy strategy. I don't know what they did a second night. They may have tried hitting me again as I said the Doctor should self-protect which would leave me open, and the Doc outguessed them. They may have hit the actual Doctor who was self-protecting, if he gave a tell they picked up on. They may have hit a townie who the Doctor was protecting (unlikely). They may have been blocked by the Nightwatchman. Or they may have recruited.

But I am very interested in why you dropped CaerieD, who you thought was scum more than fluiddruid yesterday for SnakesCatLady? What changed? Knowledge that fluiddruid is scum surely makes CaerieD, who defended her, helped save her on Day 3, and voted on the bandwagon she started on Day One look more like scum, so why did you drop her? Post 1445 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8568826&postcount=1445) really doesn't make sense, unless you've got new information that affects all the posters in question - and you hadn't.

[tirial]

Blastermaster, I'm not voting for CaerieD or Lightnin' because I can't tell the difference. Unfortunately I'm still not certain they are scum. The vote for you was because you weren't in danger of being lynched. The reactions from other members of the block would tell me more than yet another vote for CaerieD.

My first pick would still be one of those two, but as I can't tell the difference (I've given up on getting straight answers out of Lightnin') and Idle Thoughts has changed his pattern since yesterday, I'm taking the chance of getting some answers and voting for someone I actually think is scum.

[Lightnin']

(I've given up on getting straight answers out of Lightnin')

Oh, fer cryin' out loud. I think, at this point, it's clear the communication problem between you and me isn't on my end. I've answered every question you've posted.

I'm through trying, now. I'll work with the others, but you've repeatedly insulted me, and I've had enough.

[Rachm Qoch]

Arg, I thought we had longer. So it comes down to the wire, and we have to vote. I'm going to go out on a limb and vote SnakesCatLady.
This seems like this is just coming out of nowhere. A lot has been bandied about concerning SNL, and you've been nowhere near that conversation. As far as I can tell, she hasn't been on your radar since Day 2, when you also voted her out of nowhere. All of the sudden, she's back? More likely there's some wagoneering going on.
Between this, the possible doctor-fishing, and that exchange in posts 1327, 1329, and 1332...
vote Lemur866

[Omi no Kami]

Oh, fer cryin' out loud. I think, at this point, it's clear the communication problem between you and me isn't on my end. I've answered every question you've posted.

I'm through trying, now. I'll work with the others, but you've repeatedly insulted me, and I've had enough.

...now THAT is a scum tell.

(but seriously, isn't it? Fluid showed the exact same pattern, obfuscating good questions by misinterpreting or repeatedly misunderstanding the poster, then blaming it on them.)

[Lightnin']

...now THAT is a scum tell.

(but seriously, isn't it? Fluid showed the exact same pattern, obfuscating good questions by misinterpreting or repeatedly misunderstanding the poster, then blaming it on them.)

:rolleyes:

[Blaster Master]

Blastermaster, I'm not voting for CaerieD or Lightnin' because I can't tell the difference. Unfortunately I'm still not certain they are scum. The vote for you was because you weren't in danger of being lynched. The reactions from other members of the block would tell me more than yet another vote for CaerieD.

My first pick would still be one of those two, but as I can't tell the difference (I've given up on getting straight answers out of Lightnin') and Idle Thoughts has changed his pattern since yesterday, I'm taking the chance of getting some answers and voting for someone I actually think is scum. {Underlining mine}

Fair enough...well, almost. If you can't tell the difference, why not simply pick one today and the other tomorrow? It seems kind of safe to stay away from voting for one of the top vote getters, especially with the knowledge that you suspect them. The only way I can see that being good for you is if you're scum and you have knowledge that you're either going to be a late vote for a swinging townie, or a damning vote for one of your fellow scum. I can understand voting for someone you suspect more, but if they're your top two choices, why are you so afraid to put your name to one of them? To me, it looks like if they turn up town you say "I'm glad I didn't vote for them, because I wasn't sure" and if they turn up scum you can say "see, I told you so. I knew he/she was dead anyway, so I started on routing out the next one". If you could honestly say that you suspect Idle Thoughts the most, I could let it slide, but it's clear from what I underlined, that this is not the case.

Similarly, if you both started out town, I also understand why you and Idle Thoughts are going at it. From my perspective (and I imagine others), both of you seem to have had an alteration in your behavior patterns since yesterday, as each of you has pointed about the other. What I'm concerned about is that you two are the top candidates for recruitment and from the perspective of everyone else, who are unsure of your initial and current allegiances, we have no way of sorting out which of the two of you was recruited without a lynch. Hence, while I'm inclined to believe it is likely that one of you was recruited (or will be if the they haven't recruited yet), if we're wrong, we lose one of our best pro-town players in exchange for the likelihood that the other was recruited. Do you really think lynching either of you is in our best interest at this point? We haven't even caught all of the initial mafia. Of course, if one or both of you started off as scum, I suppose we're really in for a hurting

[Hal Briston]

Hmm...all votes in, and unless something changes in the next 11 minutes, it looks like Lightnin' is going to swing.

Nope...can't say I like it anymore. There were a few little fishy things that popped up from him, but except for a rather unfortunate voting record, I don't see much to convince me. I really, really hope I'm wrong, but I think we're about to see another townie swing.

(Make that eight minutes, now)

[SnakesCatLady]

You may very well be right, Hal Briston. I suspect him but there are others I suspect more.

[Lightnin']

Hmm...all votes in, and unless something changes in the next 11 minutes, it looks like Lightnin' is going to swing.

Nope...can't say I like it anymore. There were a few little fishy things that popped up from him, but except for a rather unfortunate voting record, I don't see much to convince me. I really, really hope I'm wrong, but I think we're about to see another townie swing.

(Make that eight minutes, now)

That's okay. When I swing, pay real close attention to my accusers.

[Gadarene]

Updated Vote Count

4 -- Lightnin' (DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta)
3 -- SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts, CaerieD, Lemur866)
3 -- CaerieD (Lightnin', SnakesCatLady, Blaster Master)
1 -- nesta (Hal Briston)
1 -- Rachm Qoch (Omi No Kami)
1 -- Idle Thoughts (tirial)
1 -- Lemur866 (Rachm Qoch)

Dusk falls in two minutes.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

1 -- nesta (Hal Briston)
1 -- Rachm Qoch (Omi No Kami)
1 -- Idle Thoughts (tirial)
1 -- Lemur866 (Rachm Qoch)


I find this whole section surprising.

[CaerieD]

I find this whole section surprising.

It seems rather...overly cautious.

[Idle Thoughts]

Sorry - I wasn't aware I had flown off the handle. Actually, looking at my post again, I'm still not aware I flew off the handle. Where do you see that, because I don't see anything particularly angry in it.

Well, mainly, voting for someone who displayed suspicion of you, even though they didn't even vote for you.

You voted for me, though. Yet do you see me unvoting SCL and voting for you in return? No. Even if I hadn't voted yet, I wouldn't be as hasty if the situation was reversed. I'd say "Oh, well, you have a good point there. I see what you're saying. I wasn't recruited, though".

Would I expect you to believe me? Probably not. Would I have believed you had you done/said just that? Probably not. But it certainly wouldn't have futhered any suspicions of you either. Whereas unvoting someone else and getting so defensive to the point of voting for a person who merely said they were suspicious of you, does.


I do see several logical reasons why I think you were recruited. However, I said the town would be in trouble if you were recruited, and I think I was right. We are. [/quote}

*shrugs* I wasn't recruited though. So your fears are unfounded. (see above)

[quote]I don't know - I never suggested that. Why don't you tell me, since its your idea?

My idea? It was a rhetorical question. One you think aloud into a post in this game. And as far as I've seen, not the first by far. You even DID mention it yourself here. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8567688&postcount=1427) But in case you still think it's "my" idea, other members said similiar things to how it didn't make sense here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8546780&postcount=1181) and here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8546898&postcount=1187). I actually go on to reply to a few of those by making these (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8546704&postcount=1178) two (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8547082&postcount=1193) posts. Just to show you it wasn't even "my idea" back then. I was in the same boat as you, figuring anything could be possible.

It was only after the SECOND no kill night that started me thinking and turning it over in my mind. I then went back and figured that yeah, similiar to ideas expressed earlier, it makes more sense now (after the second no-kill) that the FIRST, if any, would have been a save (rather than a wasted recruitment) and the SECOND would have been a recruitment of that person that was "saved" on the first night.

That alone, you can't deny, makes a lot and MORE sense than anything so far.


So...by other reasoning, thinking they would have tried to hit you or I that first night (something you FULLY CONCEED to thinking a few times in this thread) it makes me think they hit you, and then recruited.

Hey, maybe they didn't. Maybe they tried to hit someone, found them protected either by them being the Doc themselves or a lucky NW save and then recruited THEM. I just singled you out with my own sense and your own admission: That the mafia would most likely try to take us out.

I agree. However, although you aren't my first pick for the Doctor, it is likely they picked up a detail about the poster I believe to be the Doctor I mentioned - a slip on my part as that information did not need to be given out and wasn't accurate - and recruited the most likely candidate.

While I can see this being a very possble case, there are two things I disagree with. Number one being, I'm not scum so I obviously wasn't recruited. But since you don't know this, I'll have to hope number two makes you understand better: Namely that I think the first no kill was someone they found that they couldn't kill.

So if YOU are still YOU (and protown) and I am still me (and protown), then either:

A. The Doc was someone else, was self protecting, and they tried hitting them.

B. The Doc was someone else, was protecting ANOTHER person (who was NOT me or you since we're both claiming we weren't recruited), and they tried to hit that other person.

or

C. The NW made the save on SOMEONE, who the Mafia just happened to try hitting.


In all of these cases, I can see the mafia recruiting the person they tried to hit, thinking it may have been the Doctor.

ALSO in all of these cases, it makes me wonder WHY it wouldn't have either been you or I they tried to hit the first time to try to get one of us out the game.


Really? You didn't believe that scheme could have worked before. You had to be reminded of it repeatedly the day before. Now you are basing your whole case on it? What changed overnight?

Nothing changed. You can read from my posts above and the past ones I linked to that I was of the same mind. But TWO no-kills in a row? Well, we KNOW one of them had to have been a save. This is 100 percent guarenteed. No ifs, ands, or buts. One had to be a save. Maybe they both were but let's stick with what we know for sure. One of them was.

And IF only one of them was, I think it was the first no kill. Cause, as I now say and others have said, a recruitment that first day would make NO sense at all.

By itself, I disagreed. I thought anything was possible.
With TWO no-kills though, it makes me think the first one WAS a save actually and the second was a recruit of said saved person the night before.

The no-kill wouldn't suddenly make you start believing my scheme worked, unless you'd come into new information.

And vica versa.


They may have hit the actual Doctor who was self-protecting, if he gave a tell they picked up on. They may have hit a townie who the Doctor was protecting (unlikely). They may have been blocked by the Nightwatchman.

Snipped some.

NOW see, this is what I'm saying. You seem to understand it here but yet not when I've said it before. I no longer think, however, the first night was a recruitment. It would have made no sense without further info. This isn't anything like "new info". This is common sense. Very plausible things to consider.

Now just add that to the sense that it seems they would try to get one of us out, it makes me suspicious of you. That's all. Suspicious. I never voted for you. I just said I was suspicious.

So going back to the basics/beginning, you did seem like you were getting hasty a bit. Or they may have recruited.

But I am very interested in why you dropped CaerieD, who you thought was scum more than fluiddruid yesterday for SnakesCatLady? What changed?

I explained in this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8559289&postcount=1363). Note: Well before the night we had last and there was any chance of recruitment.

And then, the next day, I continued it (and expanded on it) here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8568826&postcount=1445).

Those posts were made on opposite sides of the night. Yet you see my thoughts and reasonings don't waver.

Knowledge that fluiddruid is scum surely makes CaerieD, who defended her, helped save her on Day 3, and voted on the bandwagon she started on Day One look more like scum, so why did you drop her?

Because others grew higher on my suspicions list. That still makes her look shady, yeah. But how doesn't it make SCL voting for her all three times and also being mentioned specifically by fluiddruid any less shady?

[Idle Thoughts]

Blastermaster, I'm not voting for CaerieD or Lightnin' because I can't tell the difference. Unfortunately I'm still not certain they are scum. The vote for you was because you weren't in danger of being lynched. The reactions from other members of the block would tell me more than yet another vote for CaerieD.

My first pick would still be one of those two, but as I can't tell the difference (I've given up on getting straight answers out of Lightnin') and Idle Thoughts has changed his pattern since yesterday, I'm taking the chance of getting some answers and voting for someone I actually think is scum.

I'm fairly certain Lightnin' is town and everyone is making a huge mistake on him. Same with CaerieD. I could be wrong. But I don't feel I am from observances I have made and reasonings I've thought.

But again, what pattern have I changed? I said the same thing both BEFORE the last night and AFTER the last night. So... :confused:..how is that changing anything?

[Idle Thoughts]

Nevermind, Tirial. Night cometh.

[Lemur866]

Where's our results? I'm dying here!

[Gadarene]

On his way to the gallows, Lightnin' off-handedly rescues a kitten from a tree, helps his kid sister with her homework, walks an elderly lady across the street, spreads his jacket atop a puddle of mud for grateful passers-by, and kicks a mime in the testicles.

You guessed it, folks.

Lightnin', a Do-Gooder, is dead.


The next day will dawn at 7:30 p.m. my time on Friday. All night instructions should be submitted by then, or I'm gonna whoop ya.

[Idle Thoughts]

Well, there goes the other DoGooder.
RIP Lightnin'.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Goddamnittohell

[Lemur866]

Arg! I'm chomping to tear into analysis of this debacle, but I've got to bite my tongue for what, 3 more days?

All I can say is that this is a very interesting development.

[Lightnin']

(I get one goodbye post, correct?)

Heh... Told ya so.

Avenge me! *urk!*

[CaerieD]

Oh for the love of...

Sorry to see you go, Lightnin'.

[Hal Briston]

Yeah, figured as much. Sigh...hats off to ya, Lightnin'.

[nesta]

Another do-gooder? How is it both of them managed to look so bad on Day 1 and not redeem themselves?

Sorry for believing you were scum Lightnin'. At least you got to tell us you told us so.

[SnakesCatLady]

Sorry I suspected you, Lightnin'.

[Millit the Frail]

:( Sorry and totally embarrassed. I must have let my stubbornness take hold of me, because I had it out for you from the beginning. Though I might have changed my mind due to the discussion I missed (everything between 3 and 7:30), I doubt it.

I'll avenge you, Lightnin'!

Updated vote spreadsheet to come. I'm going to use this time to do some major reading.

[Blaster Master]

(I get one goodbye post, correct?)

Heh... Told ya so.

Avenge me! *urk!*

Oh my... our only other Do-Gooder. Hopefully we can at least glean some useful information from your lynch.

[tirial]

Thought so. It just didn't feel right.

Sorry Lightnin'.

[Rachm Qoch]

Sorry Lightnin'.

Glad you weren't the Doctor or Watchman. I know, it's a small consolation (for us, at least).

[DiggitCamara]

Thought so. It just didn't feel right.

Sorry Lightnin'.
Didn't think so. Still sorry, Lightnin'

[Gadarene]

It is dawn. You are at the Village Green. The townspeople are here.

> x village green

You see nothing special.

> x dawn

It is rosy-fingered. Very pretty if you're into that sort of thing.

> x townspeople

They are bleary and suspicious.

> x scum

Nice try.

> count townspeople

They are all present and accounted for.

> damn it to hell

I do not understand where you would like to damn it.

> cry

Feel better?

Dusk falls at 12:15 a.m. my time on Monday night/Tuesday morning. Play nice.

[SnakesCatLady]

Wow.

[Blaster Master]

[i]It is dawn. You are at the Village Green. The townspeople are here.
So, wait... is this a third night in a row without a kill? Damn, I have no idea what to make of that. We've now had two definite blocks, but I'm unsure what that means. I'm hard pressed to believe we'd get three blocks in a row unless either our NWM is extra lucky, or our doctor is awesome. Or maybe they hadn't recruited yet, and with the other do-gooder dead they took advantage of it last night? Maybe, extending on what Idle and tirial were talking about, they targetted someone other than the doctor or NWM, got blocked by a good guessing doctor or lucky NWM, recruited him the second night, and again either the doctor or NWM blocked. Now I'm thoroughly confused...

One thing I did think about though, now that both do-gooders are dead and we know who they are, I don't think it's likely that either of them was a recruit attempt because they both had a high level of suspicion. So... my thought is, if the recruitment has taken place, we can pretty much bet it was successful, and if it hasn't taken place, it's now guaranteed to be successful.


Gadarene, when you get a chance, can you post an updated player list? Thanks.

[Gadarene]

Updated player list:

Alive:

3. CaerieD
4. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
5. Hal Briston
6. nesta
9. SnakesCatLady
11. Lemur866
12. tirial
13. Blaster Master
14. Millit the Frail
15. Rachm Qoch
16. DiggitCamara
19. Omi No Kami
20. Idle Thoughts

Dead:

8. percypercy -- citizen (lynched, Day One)
2. NAF1138 -- citizen (murdered, Night One)
17. dnooman -- citizen (lynched, Day Two)
18. Kyrie Eleison -- detective (murdered, Night Two)
7. Projammer -- do-gooder (lynched, Day Three)
1. fluiddruid -- mafia (lynched, Day Four)
10. Lightnin' -- do-gooder (lynched, Day Five)

Thirteen players left; seven votes needed to lynch.

[Blaster Master]

Thanks Gad.

Okay, I'm a little unsure where to go from here. I am a little bit bothered by DiggitCamara's reaction to Lightnin's lynch; however, his deliberately pointing out that he was quite sure he was scum doesn't look scummy. That is, I'd more expect scum to feign apology... hmm.

I was also looking at the post counts, not to FOS people with low post counts, but wondering why there's still a few people I don't have much of a read on either way. dnooman has been dead since day two and has 58 posts, NAF1138 has been dead since the first night, and has 56 posts, yet Hal Briston and nesta both have 56 and Rachm Qoch has only 42. Interestingly enough, these three are among the ones I have the least read on either pro-town or anti-town. I'm even more confused with the way Hal and nesta were attacking eachother yesterday, especially because I'm hard pressed to draw up enough evidence with few posts. I won't FOS any of them, simply because I just don't know, but at the same time, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if one or more of them was scum.

I'm also concerned about the Idle Thoughts and tirial deal late yesterday. It seemed a little contrived, but I think it's now a very real possibility that, if they both started town, that one of them was recruited in the last few nights. I'm also not saying we should indiscriminantly lynch one of them, because I think we lose more by lynching the wrong one of the two than we gain by lynching the right one. That is to say, I don't think pursuing either of them is worth it at this point.

My top suspects are still the same; however, my suspicion in them is reduced by a non-insiginicant margin. I'm hopeful someone else can offer at bit of helpful incite as far as what Lightnin's proven innocence means as far as CaerieD and SCL as the obvious top two targets today. I think his innocence relieves a lot of evidence built against CaerieD about the vote swings on day one; that is, it's looking more like the vote swing was due to whimsical townies, and not a rush to save scum... unless there's another scum that was somehow threatened that we missed. OTOH, I don't see any connection between Lightnin' and SCL, so I don't think that affects my suspicion of her, but at the same time, the strongest evidence against her is the highly specious fluiddruid defense post and the case built and pushed by a potential recruit in Idle Thoughts.

[tirial]

No kill?

Oh great, either the watchman or doc got lucky - which I can believe two nights in a row, but not three - or with no dogooders left in the game the mafia recruited last night. Personally I suspect the third, so Idle Thoughts, my apologies for yesterday, but unfortunately with a no kill last night, the town still can't trust anyone.

(Of course they could just be enjoying watching us kill each other without them having to do any work.)

I'm confused.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

I would be hollering "Praise Jesus" if it weren't for the sinking feeling in my stomach that this 3rd peaceful night brings closer the possibility that one of our own is now a traitorous scum.

I'm going to have to come out swinging today. Even though fluiddruid scummily (sp?) used a similar approach, I'm hereby asserting that I am pro-town, but I am not divulging the flavor of my creamy center.

My fellow townsfolk need to look long and hard at the three other individuals with Lightnin's Do-gooder blood on their hands besides me: Diggit, Millit, and nesta. By doing so, you would at least come extremely close to a 1 in 3 chance of targeting a scum to lynch, if not better.

Conversely, I also caution my fellow townsfolk to consider the 4 individuals who voted alone at the close of yesterday: Hal Briston, Omi No Kami, tirial, and Rachm Qoch. These (imho) odd votes may indicate the scum sitting back on their heels while the town split their votes on yet more town-on-town violence.

I like the 1 in 3 odds better, personally, but ymmv.

[nesta]

What the hell? Another no-kill? I think it's pretty safe to assume that a recruitment has happened now. At least the three nights free of Mafia killing has given us a bit of a chance to catch up.

Did the Mafia try to kill the Doctor two nights in a row, and then recruit him/her last night? Or did they know who he/she was and recruit night before last, and the night watchmen got lucky? Or maybe the Mafia went a completely different direction and recruited someone not as obvious?

Hell, I'm not sure it matters. All I know at this point is even those I've figured were town can't be trusted. I guess we all need to be looking very closely at everyone, even if they were mostly trusted before.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

I can't remember if this was covered or not, but please don't make me skim through the whole thread...

If someone is converted and then dies, are they revealed as a "converted town scum", or just "scum"?

[nesta]

My fellow townsfolk need to look long and hard at the three other individuals with Lightnin's Do-gooder blood on their hands besides me: Diggit, Millit, and nesta. By doing so, you would at least come extremely close to a 1 in 3 chance of targeting a scum to lynch, if not better.
Make that a 1 in 4 chance. The blood is on your hands as much as ours.

Frankly, I'm not convinced that scum voted for Lightnin'. They knew he wasn't Mafia, so if a bunch of townies jumped on him they might have just sat back and let us kill one of our own. They would want to stay far away from a townie lynching if possible. That is, unless there was another scum on the chopping block.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Nope. 1 in 3. That's the whole point of my post. It is up to each of you to decide whether or not you buy what I'm selling, but 1 in 3 is what I have on the table. The good news is, the town gets the merchandise for free if I die. ;)

[CaerieD]

Frankly, I'm starting to wonder if yesterday we weren't choosing between three townies to lynch. I still have my suspicions about SCL--and anyone could be turned at this point, especially since our Do-Gooders are gone--but there were four people who wanted nothing to do with a single one of those bandwagons, which makes me awfully suspicious. I get the feeling this is a case of the scum sitting back and letting us kill our own.

Right now, I'm most suspicious of Hal Briston, Omni no Kami, tirial and Rachm Qoch for giving the throwaway votes. Especially tirial--she's been hounding me for days and suddenly changes her tune when she has the chance to lynch me? I hadn't noticed any drastic change in her opinion until it came time to vote.

[Gadarene]

If someone is converted and then dies, are they revealed as a "converted town scum", or just "scum"?

The former.

[Hal Briston]

My fellow townsfolk need to look long and hard at the three other individuals with Lightnin's Do-gooder blood on their hands besides me: Diggit, Millit, and nesta. By doing so, you would at least come extremely close to a 1 in 3 chance of targeting a scum to lynch, if not better. Well, I've had the following post ready to go for about 18 hours now, so I'll be happy to invite a long, hard look at one of your mentioned targets:If you think I missed some that prove your towniness please point them out.Except for being the tiebreaking vote that sends a mafia member swinging, is there any such thing? Just about every single other action can either be taken at face value, or be looked at as a bluff.

Sorry, my best defense here is a good offense. I'm positive that I'm town and I'm quite certain that you're scum. The only way to prove the former is to prove the latter.

See the problem with your scenario that anybody who looks for scum tells in your posts is scum?Certainly -- study and analysis of other people's posts is the lifeblood of this game. It's your spectacular timing that I find so damning. As I said earlier, it's really a brilliant scum play. Unfortunately for you, the only thing you found that could have been thought to be of any value whatsoever was voting record. With our loss of Lightnin' yesterday, people might be more hesitant to convict on that basis.

Oh, and speaking of our dearly departed Lightnin', let's take a look back at my "low-post-count investigation" results post (Post #1503) (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8576868&postcount=1503). When we reread it now, it look like I was wrong about it not being a good way to find scum. I stated in there that you were probably "Not Scum", but noted the good investigative work you did in damning Lightnin':nesta -- My take: Undecided, leaning towards Not Scum. I didn't find anything terribly convincing either way. However, I did find an interesting post about the next player on our block...

Lightnin' -- My take: Prossibly scum. The reasons for such have been bandied about for quite awhile now, and to be honest, it was looking like a bit of a railroading to me. However, reading back through older posts with fresh eyes brings interesting things to light. nesta's Post #475 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8493916&postcount=475), for example (Johnny Dangerously quotes excepted).Man, do those that last two sentences ring unbelievably true now -- we have you making a post-by-post analysis of a player who has been rising in suspicion, you start out by calling him "over-defensive", and proceed to pick every minor nit you can you find -- "small thing"s or "odd suspicion"s, as you refer to them -- things that are either non-issues, or are just easily explained.

Sound familiar?

You built up a dam out of paper mâché and hoped it would hold water. And unfortunately for the rest of us, it did, and now we're down another town player. Now you're trying the exact same move against me. Time for your dam to burst.

Perhaps others will see your play this past day for what it is, perhaps not. However, if someone were to put themselves in the mindset that I'm definitely town and reread your original investigation of me (Post #1505) (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8577443&postcount=1505), then there is a good chance they'll see you for what you are.

Vote nesta

[SnakesCatLady]

Interesting bit of voteplay late in the game yesterday. With the votes running pretty closely
between the late lamented Lightnin' and myself. Omi no Kami voted for Rache Qoch and Rache Qoch voted for Omi no Kami. Very safe votes, those...

I am not as suspicious of CaerieD as I once was, even though she tried to get my lynched yesterday.

[Blaster Master]

Cookies and CaerieD do make a good point I missed. Why did four people, Hal, Omi, Rachm, and tirial not vote on one of the three main lynch candidates?

I have little read on Omi, what DOES bother me about him though, is that in his voting post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8580519&postcount=1557) he mentions that CaerieD and Lightnin' don't look scummy, but makes no mention of SCL either way before voting for Rachm Qoch with no justification. That vote looks very safe, and very suspicious. It will look REALLY suspicious if SCL turns out to be scum. I won't officially FOS you for this vote, but I hope you can at least provide the reasoning or link to where you did, for voting for Rachm Qoch.

I DID have a read on tirial that she was strong town, so I'm inclined to forgive her taking a "safe" vote because she at least provided reasoning for it. However, it's also entirely possible that she was either recruited last night, or the night before, so most of my significantly lessened trust in her is more due to that. As I said before, even though it's a realistic possibility that she's been recruited, I don't think it's worth pursuing at this time.

Now Rachm Qoch and Hal Briston, they are starting to ping my scumdar a bit. Both have low post counts, and both had very safe votes yesterday. Also, because of the entanglement between Hal and nesta, I'm unsure which is likely scum (or neither, or both). So, I'll go ahead and FOS Rachm Qoch to hopefully get some more posts and an explanation out of him, and FOS Hal Briston and nesta because their current entanglement makes it impossible to tell whether or not they're on the same side.

[Hal Briston]

I'm curious why many of you are calling the single votes "safe".

When I made my vote, no one had more than two votes against them. I voted for someone I'm certain is scum, and did not participate in the lynching of a townie. The other single-voters did the same (well, I won't speak to the certainty any of them have of their targets, but they had their reasons anyway).

Is blind bandwagoning supposed to be better?

[SnakesCatLady]

I'm curious why many of you are calling the single votes "safe".

When I made my vote, no one had more than two votes against them. I voted for someone I'm certain is scum, and did not participate in the lynching of a townie. The other single-voters did the same (well, I won't speak to the certainty any of them have of their targets, but they had their reasons anyway).

Is blind bandwagoning supposed to be better?

No! I have yet to jump on a "bandwagon" and will not do so in the future. I just thought the votes I mentioned seemed rather suspicious - two low-lying posters voting for each other.

[Blaster Master]

I'm curious why many of you are calling the single votes "safe".

When I made my vote, no one had more than two votes against them. I voted for someone I'm certain is scum, and did not participate in the lynching of a townie. The other single-voters did the same (well, I won't speak to the certainty any of them have of their targets, but they had their reasons anyway).

Is blind bandwagoning supposed to be better?

No, its not. However, IIRC, I didn't see much input from you at all about the top three candidates yesterday. Don't forget that part of the evidence against SCL is her "safe" vote for fluiddruid on day two, even though fluiddruid ended up being scum. It may be flawed logic, or she may have been scum taking it as an opportunity to not participate in a townie lynch AND seperate herself from who she felt looked scummy.

So...did you think any of them (the top candidates) were scum? Did you think any of them were town? I don't cast suspicion for voting for someone if you can convince me that you really thought they were scum (which, if you're not scum yourself, you at least did justify, unlike some of the other "safe" votes). What bothers me more is the reletively low post count, and your choice of target. That is, I can see going after an unpopular target if you feel you can make a case, but I just don't feel like I have enough information to make a strong judgment on nesta (who has a lower post count than you do) to say he's definitely scum.

However, now that you have pointed out the timing of your vote (which I'd missed before), and you're obviously making a concerted effort to post more, I won't hound you. Still, regardless of who you vote for, it's still nice to have the general position you hold with regard to the leading candidates, otherwise a "safe" vote does look like a distancing one if the lynchee comes up pro-town.

[SnakesCatLady]

No, its not. However, IIRC, I didn't see much input from you at all about the top three candidates yesterday. Don't forget that part of the evidence against SCL is her "safe" vote for fluiddruid on day two, even though fluiddruid ended up being scum. It may be flawed logic, or she may have been scum taking it as an opportunity to not participate in a townie lynch AND seperate herself from who she felt looked scummy.

>snip<


I still do not understand this reasoning. I voted for scum, because I thought she was scum. I did not dance around and vote for this person Day 2, that person Day 3, and another person Day 4 - I voted for the person I thought was scum until she was lynched and I was free to put my vote elsewhere. I was RIGHT, damnit, and now there are people who want to lynch me for it. I just cannot believe I am being considered suspicious for consistently voting for the only scum we have been successful in catching!

[Blaster Master]

I still do not understand this reasoning. I voted for scum, because I thought she was scum. I did not dance around and vote for this person Day 2, that person Day 3, and another person Day 4 - I voted for the person I thought was scum until she was lynched and I was free to put my vote elsewhere. I was RIGHT, damnit, and now there are people who want to lynch me for it. I just cannot believe I am being considered suspicious for consistently voting for the only scum we have been successful in catching!
If you haven't looked at the results from M2, and Storyteller's strategy there, please do. He was riding the case of some of the mafia from very near the beginning of the game and when they finally came up scum, it was made him look rather clean, if it had been the other way around, it would have looked like he was pursuing them because they weren't scum. That is, pursuing scum from the get go, especially considering that the first vote was cast well after the bandwagons were established for a fellow scum could be an attempt to hide and, when one of you does show up scum, the other can say "look I voted for/was voted against by known scum, I must be townie.

Am I saying that is necessarily the case here... no, but the possibility that it was cannot be ignored. Combine that with fluiddruid's obvious attempt to distance herself from you, and that adds lots of suspicion. However, it's also likely that you just had a good read on her, and she was afraid of you and trying to get your lynch to follow hers. Like I'd said, I'm suspicious, but I'm not prepared to lynch you without stronger evidence.

Beside all that, my main point of mentioning you with regard to Hal Briston was as a comparison that a "safe" vote, while not enough evidence in and of itself, is still enough to get a good amount of suspicion on someone; it was not an explicit condonation of the logic that got you close to lynching. Regardless of where your final vote lies, "safe" or not, it's still helpful to the town to know where you stand on the top vote getters.

[Millit the Frail]

Three nights in a row, hmm. I had something to say that I didn't get in before the end of the last day, and now that another night has gone by without a kill, it's even more interesting.

There seemed to be a general buzz at the close of the day about the "Mafia recruiting the Doctor" scenario. As in, the Mafia tried to kill someone, ran up against a wall, and then recruited him the next night, assuming he/she had been self-protecting. But why would we assume that the Doctor has stopped self-protecting on the second night? Maybe that recruit was still blocked on the second night. Do you think the Mafia would risk that?

Only one person, someone I've never been suspicious of, has been trying to draw the Doc's protection off the Doc him/hesrself during the days: tirial. Is there a chance that the Mafia has gone for the self-protecting Doc more than once, hoping that he/she stops self protecting, knowing that taking out the Doc is a powerful move?

[Millit the Frail]

If you haven't looked at the results from M2, and Storyteller's strategy there, please do. He was riding the case of some of the mafia from very near the beginning of the game and when they finally came up scum, it was made him look rather clean, if it had been the other way around, it would have looked like he was pursuing them because they weren't scum. That is, pursuing scum from the get go, especially considering that the first vote was cast well after the bandwagons were established for a fellow scum could be an attempt to hide and, when one of you does show up scum, the other can say "look I voted for/was voted against by known scum, I must be townie.

This is absolutely important. The scum really need at least one of their own left, in the endgame, who has been diligently voting for other scum in the beginning. I feel very strongly that SCL may have been set up as this game's Storyteller. The votes for and from fluiddruid are pretty suspicious. The Mafia is SMART, guys. It's STUPID for them all to act like a team.

Oh, and I'm up to date with the votes, including our one early bird vote from Hal this morning.

[SnakesCatLady]

I guess I would have been better off helping to lynch other townies, rather than trying to root out scum.

[DiggitCamara]

(snip)

There seemed to be a general buzz at the close of the day about the "Mafia recruiting the Doctor" scenario. As in, the Mafia tried to kill someone, ran up against a wall, and then recruited him the next night, assuming he/she had been self-protecting. But why would we assume that the Doctor has stopped self-protecting on the second night? Maybe that recruit was still blocked on the second night. Do you think the Mafia would risk that?
(snip)


... not exactly.

The Doctor can protect anyone (including him/herself) from harm. The way I read it, the Doctor cannot protect anyone from being recruited (that privilege was restricted to our now extinct Dogooders.

Thus IdleThought's (and my idea) that we had a block on one day, and a recruitment attempt on the second.

However, this is not certain. There might have been extremely good luck on the Doctor's part and/or the NightWatchMan's, foolish stubbornness on part of the Mafia (trying to kill the Doctor again.... and again... and again...) or many, many other scenarios.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

... not exactly.

The Doctor can protect anyone (including him/herself) from harm. The way I read it, the Doctor cannot protect anyone from being recruited (that privilege was restricted to our now extinct Dogooders.

Thus IdleThought's (and my idea) that we had a block on one day, and a recruitment attempt on the second.

However, this is not certain. There might have been extremely good luck on the Doctor's part and/or the NightWatchMan's, foolish stubbornness on part of the Mafia (trying to kill the Doctor again.... and again... and again...) or many, many other scenarios.

Which is why I again advocate that trying to hash out those possibilities is not going to get us anywhere. Is it not simpler to assume that a) someone has been recruited and b) it could have been anyone?

[Lemur866]

Right now, I'm most suspicious of Hal Briston, Omni no Kami, tirial and Rachm Qoch for giving the throwaway votes. Especially tirial--she's been hounding me for days and suddenly changes her tune when she has the chance to lynch me? I hadn't noticed any drastic change in her opinion until it came time to vote.

I agree with this. We need to take a good look at the people who made "throwaway" votes...AND they people they voted for. It wouldn't surpise me a bit if there isn't a mafia vs mafia vote there, from someone looking to establish a clean record. Or provide an alibi for their scum buddy, if they turn up dead the living scum can say, "See, that scum was targeting me from the beginning! That proves I'm town!"

Next item. Three days without a night kill? I have to believe this means we've had a recruitment, the odds of the doctor and watchman protecting perfectly three times in a row are damn slim. The only thing holding the mafia back from recruiting was the existance of that second Do-Gooder, which you all conveniently lynched yesterday. Lightning turning up Do-Gooder after two days of no-kills, and the scum figure they might as well recruit. Unless the recruitment was done earlier. The only problem with this argument is that it still seems a bit too early to recruit, they've only lost one mafiosi yet. Unless they figure they've bracketed the doctor. That scenario would be that they targeted some player at random three nights ago, and found him blocked. They try the same player again, and are again blocked. They figure it has to be the doctor self-protecting, and recruit, knowing that there's no chance of a blocked recruitment now that both Do-Gooders are exposed. So they recruit, and hope they reel in the doc.

Or they've recruited some other player, who's either flown under the radar, or established themselves as trustworthy.

The only other explanation is three consecutive Doc/Watch blocks, and that stretches credulity. We can't rule out three consecutive blocks, but it's so unlikely that I have to believe the recruitment scenario.

[Hal Briston]

Which is why I again advocate that trying to hash out those possibilities is not going to get us anywhere. Is it not simpler to assume that a) someone has been recruited and b) it could have been anyone?Simpler, and (to my mind) less time-wasting as well.

For all we know, the Night Watchman is the luckiest mofo in the world (hell, any old-school D&D player knows you can occasionaly hit a natural 18 off of 3d6, and that would be the same thing).

However, I'm going to work under the same assumption as you are -- the recruitment has been made. Other than that, all I know is we got a free pass the other two nights, woohoo for that. If, by chance, the recruitment hasn't been made yet, then we hit the luck-out trifecta...double-woohoo.

[Blaster Master]

Okay, let's look at some numbers. The chance of the NWM blocking is 1/6 (~16.67%); the chance of the DOC blocking is 1/n (~6.67%, 7.14%, 7.69% for each of the last three nights successively). The combined probability is the union of the probabilities, or (n+5)/(6n) (~22.22%, 22.62%, 23.08%). Thus, the probability of all three nights being blocks is the intersection of these three probabilities which is ~1.16%. The probability for getting blocked twice and recruiting last night is ~5.03%. If they recruited vanilla or mason on the second night, that is ~5.13%. If they recruited doctor the second night, its 3.70%, and if they recruited the NWM the second night its 1.71%.

What does all this mean? Basically, there's almost 99% chance that the recruitment has occurred. If we assume the recruitment did happen in the last two nights (as I really think it wouldn't make sense to recruit on the first no-kill night, and it overly complicates the numbers), then we can normalize around the other four probabilities such that there's about a 1/3 chance the recruitment happened last night (~32.31%), versus a 2/3 chance it happened the second night. If it happened last night, there's no way to know who was recruited, so its a 1/13 chance it was either the NWM, 1/13 it was the doc, and either 6/13 or 7/13 (depending on whether there's 4 or 5 mafia) chance it was either a vanilla or mason.

What does this all THAT mean? Well, if we go with the 99% chance that the recruitment happened, and that it didn't happen on the first night, that means there's a 27.80% chance the Doctor was recruited, a 15.02% chance that the NWM was recruited, and a 57.18% chance that either a vanilla or mason was recruited (or 9.53% that a given person at random who isn't the DOC or NWM was recruited). IOW, to put them in simplery numbers, the DOC is 3x more likely to have been recruited than anyone else except the NWM, he's 2x more likely to have been recruited than the NWM, and the NWM is 1.5x more likely to have been recruited than anyone other than the DOC.

Of course, that's all assuming that everyone is shooting blindly, which the NWM essentially is, but the DOC isn't, but I expect when adjusted the DOC's reads on a good target, and the mafia's reads on who may be the DOC or his likely protect, the numbers probably come out about the same.

[DiggitCamara]

If we take a good look at the preceding days, we have:

Day 1: Hard competition to lynch a citizen (Lightnin' versus percypercy versus Projammer)
Day 2: Tie between two citizens (dnooman versus Projammer)
Day 3: Hard competition to lynch a citizen over scum (Projammer finally won against fluiddruid)
Day 4: Runaway train against scum (fluiddruid)
Day 5: Relatively easy lynch of citizen versus unknown (Lightnin' versus SnakesCatLady)

For my part, at least, I'll take a long hard look at the data the 3rd day yields. Mainly since it's the only day were scum had a vested interest in derailing a vote (unless, of course, SnakesCatLady is scum). On Day 4 it's pretty obvious the scum had fluiddruid as a sacrificial lamb and at least one of them voted for her.

[Millit the Frail]

... not exactly.

The Doctor can protect anyone (including him/herself) from harm. The way I read it, the Doctor cannot protect anyone from being recruited (that privilege was restricted to our now extinct Dogooders.

Thus IdleThought's (and my idea) that we had a block on one day, and a recruitment attempt on the second.

However, this is not certain. There might have been extremely good luck on the Doctor's part and/or the NightWatchMan's, foolish stubbornness on part of the Mafia (trying to kill the Doctor again.... and again... and again...) or many, many other scenarios.

Ah. OK. Between this and thinking there was a Godfather, any chance that I might be seen as "too stupid to be Mafia?"

....didn't think so.

Anyway, I like your recent idea, about looking over Day 3 very carefully. I'll have some time tomorrow to do some reading (can't get in-depth at work) and maybe something will stand out. I'm celebrating a graduation tonight, so I'll see you all in the morning.

[Rachm Qoch]

I would be hollering "Praise Jesus" if it weren't for the sinking feeling in my stomach that this 3rd peaceful night brings closer the possibility that one of our own is now a traitorous scum.

I'm going to have to come out swinging today. Even though fluiddruid scummily (sp?) used a similar approach, I'm hereby asserting that I am pro-town, but I am not divulging the flavor of my creamy center.

My fellow townsfolk need to look long and hard at the three other individuals with Lightnin's Do-gooder blood on their hands besides me: Diggit, Millit, and nesta. By doing so, you would at least come extremely close to a 1 in 3 chance of targeting a scum to lynch, if not better.

Conversely, I also caution my fellow townsfolk to consider the 4 individuals who voted alone at the close of yesterday: Hal Briston, Omi No Kami, tirial, and Rachm Qoch. These (imho) odd votes may indicate the scum sitting back on their heels while the town split their votes on yet more town-on-town violence.

I like the 1 in 3 odds better, personally, but ymmv.
I think odds are good that both scenarios are not only correct, but connected.

As the day was drawing to a close, the one thing that was clear was that we had the closest thing to a coin toss since Projammer/dnooman. That coin toss would have happened if either one of the following had occurred: 1) someone had put a 4th vote on either SNL or CaerieD, tying him with Lightnin; or 2) someone had unvoted Lightnin, tying him with both SNL and CaerieD at 3 votes apiece.

Notice that the only unvote the whole day was tirial's. This is the lowest of the game, so far. Knowing that he's innocent, mafia would be loath to put the decisive vote on Lightnin, but could still ensure his lynching by quietly keeping a vote for him.

This ties into the 4 single votes (one of which I realize is myself) that you bring up -- any one of the single votes could have reasonably gone to SNL or CaerieD. For some reason it looks like there was an effort made to ensure that neither of them swung. Why was that? If they're both town, mafia wouldn't care if it went to a coin toss since a townie would be sure to hang either way. So why were there four safe single votes at the end? Are the three other single votes a case of jitters about accidentally lynching another townie, or something else?

[Hal Briston]

...either SNL or....

...both SNL and...

...to SNL or....Big Lorne Michaels fan, are you? :)

[Lemur866]

This ties into the 4 single votes (one of which I realize is myself) that you bring up -- any one of the single votes could have reasonably gone to SNL or CaerieD. For some reason it looks like there was an effort made to ensure that neither of them swung. Why was that? If they're both town, mafia wouldn't care if it went to a coin toss since a townie would be sure to hang either way.
Hmm. I know that no one likes to admit to "trusting" certain players, but his analysis makes me trust CaerieD and SNL a bit more. The scum knew Lightning was town, but he had only one extra vote. Therefore, a last minute change of only one townie vote could result in either CaerieD or SNL getting lynched. The fact that no one seemed to feel the need to pile on an extra vote on Lightning tends to indicate that the scum didn't particularly care if CaerieD or SNL died instead.

I've been pretty suspicious of both of them for quite some time, but this is evidence that I might have been wrong.

Of course, it could have just been a ballsy move on the mafia's part to leave another mafiosi with their ass hanging in the breeze, but piling an extra vote onto Lighting would probably have gone un-noticed.

So...unFOS CaerieD and unFOS SnakesCatLady.

[Blaster Master]

I think odds are good that both scenarios are not only correct, but connected.

Good points, can you explain your single vote? Did you think all three were townies? Did you think one or more of them was scum, but thought that Lemur was scummier?

[Rachm Qoch]

Interesting bit of voteplay late in the game yesterday. With the votes running pretty closely
between the late lamented Lightnin' and myself. Omi no Kami voted for Rache Qoch and Rache Qoch voted for Omi no Kami. Very safe votes, those...

I am not as suspicious of CaerieD as I once was, even though she tried to get my lynched yesterday.
FTR I voted for Lemur. I'm trying not to be too reactionary with my votes. After everything that happened over the first couple of days I've come to realize that not every single vote for myself is necessarily scum trying to stir shit up.

[Hal Briston]

This ties into the 4 single votes (one of which I realize is myself) that you bring up -- any one of the single votes could have reasonably gone to SNL or CaerieD. For some reason it looks like there was an effort made to ensure that neither of them swung. Why was that? If they're both town, mafia wouldn't care if it went to a coin toss since a townie would be sure to hang either way. So why were there four safe single votes at the end? Are the three other single votes a case of jitters about accidentally lynching another townie, or something else?Are you certain you should be pursuing this line of questioning? It seems to me that this looks worse for you than anyone else.

Let's look at how things stood when each of the single votes came in:

Lightnin' - 2, SCL - 2, CaerieD - 2
I put in my vote for nesta

Lightnin' - 4, SCL - 3, CaerieD - 2
Omi puts in a vote for Rachm

Lightnin' - 4, SCL - 3, CaerieD - 2
tirial votes and then unvotes Blaster, puts in a vote for Idle Thoughts

Lightnin' - 4, SCL - 3, CaerieD - 3
Rachm puts in a vote for Lemur

Seeing as yours was the final vote of the day, is there a reason (outside of heavy suspicion of Lemur, of course) that you didn't push SCL or CaerieD into a tie?

[Blaster Master]

So...unFOS CaerieD and unFOS SnakesCatLady.
I'm not exactly questioning your unFOS, because I'm also a lot less suspicious of them, but for different reasons. Is it not possible that one of them is scum, and either the other scum thought it was too risky to put another vote out on Lightnin' and expose both of them, or that perhaps one or more of the votes on Lightnin' already were scum and there wasn't anything more they could have done to make it a safer for the other scum? IOW, I think because of the single votes, it's hard to say if the scum were scared and threw a few votes on Lightnin' to protect either SCL or CaerieD, or they were scared, and stayed the heck out of the way?

OTOH, Lightnin' had been riding near the top of suspicion lists for several days. So the sake of argument, let's assume SCL and CaerieD are both town, wouldn't it have looked MORE suspicious had either of them gotten lynched and showed up town. Obviously, the scum would have known, and not cared which one got lynched, but at the same time, where would they have safely thrown their votes? If they'd piled on whichever of them got lynched, they would have drawn a boatload of suspicion for being involved in yet another vote swing away from Lightnin'. IOW, I think a lynch vote for Lightnin', even if both of the other two are town, is still safer because he was a likely lynchee going into the day.

But even that bothers me, because that logic would imply we'd have a reasonable number of the town along with one or two mafia on Lightnin', and that logic would have us say that only two or three of the votes on him were townie... I think at least three of the votes on him were probably Townie. So where the heck did the scum vote? If all three were townies, with the votes so close, wouldn't it make the most sense to leave the votes off of all of them?

Of course, that all relies on neither of them being scum. If one of them is, they still may have easily either done some single voting, or even fabricated one of the other two bandwagons to try to make sure there was enough competition to keep their compatriot safe.

[Rachm Qoch]

Good points, can you explain your single vote? Did you think all three were townies? Did you think one or more of them was scum, but thought that Lemur was scummier?
I figured there was a good chance scum was in the mix -- and I still do. Pinning him/her down is a lot tougher.

Since you're good with numbers, I'll explain it to you this way.

The top three. If I were to estimate that, within a group of three individuals, there was a 75% chance that at least one of them were scum, how likely is it that any particular individual is scum? Given the 75% estimate, the likelyhood of none of them being scum is (1-0.75) = 0.25, or 1 in 4. The likelyhood of a particular individual among the three of not being scum is (0.25)^3 = 0.63; i.e. the probability of any particular individual being scum is (1-0.63)=0.27.

So even if I'm 75% sure that one of the top three is scum, I've only got a 27% chance of lucking out and picking the correct one. These are bad odds.

What that tells me is that I can't count on getting lucky if I suspect that there's scum somewhere in a pack of individuals. I need something concrete to pin my hat on, like I had with fluiddruid and have more and more with Lemur.

Given a high degree of uncertainty, it's prudent not to rush a vote against someone who's true status is likely to become clearer as things shake out.

[Blaster Master]

I figured there was a good chance scum was in the mix -- and I still do. Pinning him/her down is a lot tougher.

Since you're good with numbers, I'll explain it to you this way.

The top three. If I were to estimate that, within a group of three individuals, there was a 75% chance that at least one of them were scum, how likely is it that any particular individual is scum? Given the 75% estimate, the likelyhood of none of them being scum is (1-0.75) = 0.25, or 1 in 4. The likelyhood of a particular individual among the three of not being scum is (0.25)^3 = 0.63; i.e. the probability of any particular individual being scum is (1-0.63)=0.27.

So even if I'm 75% sure that one of the top three is scum, I've only got a 27% chance of lucking out and picking the correct one. These are bad odds.

What that tells me is that I can't count on getting lucky if I suspect that there's scum somewhere in a pack of individuals. I need something concrete to pin my hat on, like I had with fluiddruid and have more and more with Lemur.

Given a high degree of uncertainty, it's prudent not to rush a vote against someone who's true status is likely to become clearer as things shake out.

If one were to throw a dart to make a vote yesterday, with 14 people, and assuming 4 scum as best case (with 5 the numbers would be larger), then you'd have had a 4/14 chance, or 28.57% chance of hitting someone with a random, which to me, means unless your 75% chance was just an example number, that you were basically as suspicious of the top three candidates as you were of everyone else. Were you really no more convinced one way or the other?

If we still assume 4 scum today, then the chance that a given person at random is scum is 30.77% or if there's 5 it's 38.46%.

[Rachm Qoch]

Are you certain you should be pursuing this line of questioning? It seems to me that this looks worse for you than anyone else.

Let's look at how things stood when each of the single votes came in:

Lightnin' - 2, SCL - 2, CaerieD - 2
I put in my vote for nesta

Lightnin' - 4, SCL - 3, CaerieD - 2
Omi puts in a vote for Rachm

Lightnin' - 4, SCL - 3, CaerieD - 2
tirial votes and then unvotes Blaster, puts in a vote for Idle Thoughts

Lightnin' - 4, SCL - 3, CaerieD - 3
Rachm puts in a vote for Lemur

Seeing as yours was the final vote of the day, is there a reason (outside of heavy suspicion of Lemur, of course) that you didn't push SCL or CaerieD into a tie?
Frankly, I think you're right that my theory is least favorable to myself, but I don't think that's a reason to dismiss it out of hand. When you happened to put your vote on nesta, the top three were in a dead heat. That's something I'm looking at. And SCL or CaerieD would have been put in peril if either of the other two votes had been put on them. Things tightened up in the end. As I've said, CaerieD's activity at the end of Day 4 and the beginning of Day 5 is just as indictive of an unsure townie as a bold mafia, and I don't find anything else to hang my hat on there.

Do you think that there's nothing suspicious about four safe votes in such a tight race?

[tirial]

New job. Third day. Knackered.

I'm too tired to think at the moment, but if Lightnin's town that means I'm going for the complicated option (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8579748&postcount=1531). Of the lot Lemur866 is easily looking the scummiest. At the moment, everyone does, IRL and otherwise, so take that for whatever you think its worth.

Gadarene, I may need to find a sub.

BTWThe only thing holding the mafia back from recruiting was the existance of that second Do-Gooder, which you all conveniently lynched yesterday. "You all"? Lightnin' didn't even get an overall majority, far less all the townies. If "you all" refers to us townies, its a strange way to set youself outside the town.

[Idle Thoughts]

So, wait... is this a third night in a row without a kill? Damn, I have no idea what to make of that. We've now had two definite blocks, but I'm unsure what that means. I'm hard pressed to believe we'd get three blocks in a row unless either our NWM is extra lucky, or our doctor is awesome. Or maybe they hadn't recruited yet, and with the other do-gooder dead they took advantage of it last night? Maybe, extending on what Idle and tirial were talking about, they targetted someone other than the doctor or NWM, got blocked by a good guessing doctor or lucky NWM, recruited him the second night, and again either the doctor or NWM blocked.


Snipped.

Or, the first nokill night was a hit and save...so they tried again on the same person just to be sure, saw it was another nokill, and then recruited that person (who was probably the Doctor), since TWO tried for the same person in a row? Yeah, either that person was the Doc and is NOW, FOR SURE, recruited, or the Night Watchman is one lucky son of a gun.


One thing I did think about though, now that both do-gooders are dead and we know who they are, I don't think it's likely that either of them was a recruit attempt because they both had a high level of suspicion. So... my thought is, if the recruitment has taken place, we can pretty much bet it was successful, and if it hasn't taken place, it's now guaranteed to be successful.


Maybe. But I don't see why they'd randomly try to recruit anyone unless they were sure of status. I can't see them just trying, out of the blue, to take Lightnin' without first trying to hit him and test to see if it worked.

I COULD have gone: First no-kill night: Try to hit Lightnin and found, by NW save, they couldn't. Second no-kill night: Try to recruit Lightnin' and found it failed. Third no-kill night: Either they tried hitting the Doc and found him protected or NW had another save.


But in that whole scenerio, I just don't see or feel it happening. The odds would have to be pretty high. So I'm still of the mind that they either tried hitting first night and found someone saved and recruited the next night (the saved target, who very well could have been the Doc) or the first two no-kill nights tried hitting the same person (just to see if they were saved again or not and be sure/have better odds it is the Doc) and then recruited last night.

I mean, it makes MORE sense and it's a far better chance than the NW making the save twice.

Either way, I still feel our Doc is no longer our Doc.

Either way I still wonder why they wouldn't have either taken tirial or me out and, barring IF they had, if tirial is still town right now.

But apoligies to you too. It seems, knowing what we do, you were still protown yesterday. Or at least had a good chance of being so. But it seems even more likely today you may not be. However, I'll keep in mind that there's a chance that you, like me, are still non-recruited and that the scum are just playing with our minds.

Don't get me wrong, I remain highly suspicious of you. But I'll focus on all my other suspicions first.

For example...no matter what, I already know who I'm voting for this round.

Vote SnakesCatLady

Seriously, I have a huge feeling she's a bad apple.



Frankly, I'm not convinced that scum voted for Lightnin'. They knew he wasn't Mafia, so if a bunch of townies jumped on him they might have just sat back and let us kill one of our own. They would want to stay far away from a townie lynching if possible. That is, unless there was another scum on the chopping block.

Snipped.

That's what I'm thinking, actually, too. I could be way off and I hope I'm not but of the people who voted for him, I'm only very suspicious of one (DiggitCamara, as I said a few times the last day).

I think the scum all made their votes spread out.

[Idle Thoughts]

Next item. Three days without a night kill? I have to believe this means we've had a recruitment, the odds of the doctor and watchman protecting perfectly three times in a row are damn slim. .

Snipped heavily.

And this is also to some posts made by, well, everyone.

Yeah, yeah, there's a LOT of cases and possiblities....and while some are plausible, there are only good chances of, say, one or two. And that actually make sense.

A. The mafia tried hitting someone once. They were protected. They try again, same person. Protected. They now know this person is PROBABLY the Doctor. Recruitment.

Easy peasy. Makes a lot of sense and is a very, very, very, very, very likely situation.


B. The mafia tried hitting someone once. They were protected. Recruitment.

This is what I thought it was yesterday. And that would have made this last night just a lucky save by the Night Watchman. However with THREE no-kill nights in a row now, A seems even more likely and makes more sense. They probably wanted to be absolutely sure they had the Doc.

And yeah, there are more cases. Many more. It's even possible that the mafia has been voting no kill themselves just to throw us off.

But what makes the most sense? What is the most likely situation?

[Lemur866]

BTW "You all"? Lightnin' didn't even get an overall majority, far less all the townies. If "you all" refers to us townies, its a strange way to set youself outside the town.
Huh? "You all" means the people who voted to lynch Lightning. Plural you. This is a new construction to you?

The people now highest on my suspicion list are the Lightning lynchers and the one-voters and the one-voted-against. Except that's just about everyone.

And since your "complicated option" has fingered me out of a field of Idle Thoughts, Hal Briston, fluiddruid (now dead), and me, are we allowed to the reasoning that lead you to draw up that short list?

I'm not opposed to somone giving a reason of "you just seem scummy to me", sometimes gut reactions and intuition are all we have. But if you believe you've got some logical reason, I'm not sure why you feel you have to keep that secret.

[Idle Thoughts]

Just asking this question again since I asked it before but he must not have seen it..


Gadarene, will we learn, at the games end, what happened on each no-kill night?

[Gadarene]

tirial:
Gadarene, I may need to find a sub.

Okay. Just let me know.

Idle Thoughts:
Gadarene, will we learn, at the games end, what happened on each no-kill night?

I did answer that before, actually, albeit belatedly. :) Yeah, I'll tell everyone what happened each night, if they want to know.

[Lemur866]

And yeah, there are more cases. Many more. It's even possible that the mafia has been voting no kill themselves just to throw us off.

But what makes the most sense? What is the most likely situation?
First off, I think we can discard the "no kill" option. Just doesn't make sense. Sure, it's a "they'd never expect us to do this!" move, but the reason we would never expect them to do it is because it makes no sense.

I have to imagine the failed kill, failed kill, recruitment is more likely, simply because last night they didn't have to worry about any do-gooders.

But the lingering problem I have with this scenario is that it still seems way to early to recruit. There's got to be three or four mafia left, an early recruitment leaves that recruit vulnerable to lynching, whereas if they wait they can pick their recruit from the pool of survivors. Even if they think they're bracketed the Doctor, why would they recruit him NOW? Why not whittle down our numbers and recruit the Doctor later?

But three blocks in a row are in the 1% probability range, presuming random scum voting and random protection. That's just so hard to believe that we could get that lucky. So I have to believe that seeing Lightning turn out Do-Gooder, and the mafia thinking they've got a good lead on the doc, rushed them into a premature recruitment.

The only take away from this is that anyone who role-claims doctor is gonna get a big old :dubious: from me. It's possible the doctor wasn't recruited, it's possible no one was recruited, but that's the way I'd play the odds.

[Idle Thoughts]

[off-game]tirial, no matter what your status is, I really hope you could stay in the game. I mean if you're really tired or pressed for time or finding the game becoming long, well, you do what you need to do and that's understandable....but yeah, I just wanted to say that I hope you can continue because you're a really great player.[/off-game]

[DiggitCamara]

If one were to throw a dart to make a vote yesterday, with 14 people, and assuming 4 scum as best case (with 5 the numbers would be larger), then you'd have had a 4/14 chance, or 28.57% chance of hitting someone with a random [vote]
(snip)


... and, since everyone knows his/her allegiance, it's actually 4/13 ...

[Idle Thoughts]

The only take away from this is that anyone who role-claims doctor is gonna get a big old :dubious: from me. It's possible the doctor wasn't recruited, it's possible no one was recruited, but that's the way I'd play the odds.

Snipped.

The rest of your post makes a lot of sense. I didn't have anything to reply to it since I agree somewhat.

But this quote here..all I have to say is (and I mentioned this too to DiggitCamara who said the same thing the last day) that could also be what the mafia wants us to think. They could have voted "no kill" just so we'd be suspicious of our own Doc whenever the time comes if they ever have to role claim.

I'm just not going to leave anything out in my reasoning.

[DiggitCamara]

(snip)
And yeah, there are more cases. Many more. It's even possible that the mafia has been voting no kill themselves just to throw us off.
(snip)


By night they convene to decide who, if anyone, they will kill. Important: In addition to choosing a target, the Mafia must decide where the target will be killed (out of six possible locales provided below). If the Mafia chooses unwisely, its homicidal plans may be thwarted that night.


... Gadarene, I'm confused: can the Mafia choose neither to kill nor to recruit?

[Gadarene]

... Gadarene, I'm confused: can the Mafia choose neither to kill nor to recruit?

Correct. The Mafia can vote to "no kill" just like the town can vote to "no lynch."

[Lemur866]

Snipped.

The rest of your post makes a lot of sense. I didn't have anything to reply to it since I agree somewhat.

But this quote here..all I have to say is (and I mentioned this too to DiggitCamara who said the same thing the last day) that could also be what the mafia wants us to think. They could have voted "no kill" just so we'd be suspicious of our own Doc whenever the time comes if they ever have to role claim.

I'm just not going to leave anything out in my reasoning.

This is a possibility. But basically my analysis of the situation would make me MORE likely to vote for someone who made an unchallenged doctor role-claim, whereas before I'd have to take it under consideration. I can't imagine voting no-kill just to confuse us, I'd sooner believe 3 blocks than 2 blocks and a no-kill. Of course, more likely than either is 2 blocks and a non-doc recruitment, and more likely than that is 2 blocks and a doc recruitment.

[DiggitCamara]

(snip)
But this quote here..all I have to say is (and I mentioned this too to DiggitCamara who said the same thing the last day) that could also be what the mafia wants us to think. They could have voted "no kill" just so we'd be suspicious of our own Doc whenever the time comes if they ever have to role claim.

(snip)
Correct. The Mafia can vote to "no kill" just like the town can vote to "no lynch."
...aaaand, in light of this new information, it would actually make sense for them to have a "no kill" vote.

1. We've had a near-perfect record of townie-lynching
2. Our (Idle-Diggit-tirial) exchange pretty much told them we'd lynch the doctor as soon as (s)he is forced to roleclaim
3. They would still have the recruitment option

[Rachm Qoch]

If one were to throw a dart to make a vote yesterday, with 14 people, and assuming 4 scum as best case (with 5 the numbers would be larger), then you'd have had a 4/14 chance, or 28.57% chance of hitting someone with a random, which to me, means unless your 75% chance was just an example number, that you were basically as suspicious of the top three candidates as you were of everyone else. Were you really no more convinced one way or the other?

If we still assume 4 scum today, then the chance that a given person at random is scum is 30.77% or if there's 5 it's 38.46%.
Upon deeper contemplation, I've come to the conclusion that 1-0.63=0.37 :smack:

That would be something else if an educated guess was worse than a throw of the dart, huh?

Yeah, 75% was just an off-the-top-of-my-head ballpark estimation. An educated guess also differs from a random selection at the tail end where, in addition to a few who are in the "possible scum" group, there are also a select few who are at least slightly leaning town. This will further improve the possibility over random chance of successfully nailing scum. But the point remains that guessing even within a pool of likely suspects only marginally improves upon a throw of the dart.

[nesta]

Sorry, my best defense here is a good offense. I'm positive that I'm town and I'm quite certain that you're scum. The only way to prove the former is to prove the latter.
The only way to prove I'm scum (which I'm not, just for the record) is to lynch me, or wait until I'm night-killed which I think your suspicions and my horrible record at spotting scum are making less likely. Once my role is known it won't prove anything one way or the other about you. If I'm town it will make you look bad, but can easily be dismissed. If I'm scum it could have been two scum having it out to distance themselves. You weren't in any danger of a lynch yesterday, so this could have been a safe play for scum to hedge their bets. You and I both know that's not the case, but nobody else does.

Certainly -- study and analysis of other people's posts is the lifeblood of this game. It's your spectacular timing that I find so damning. As I said earlier, it's really a brilliant scum play. Unfortunately for you, the only thing you found that could have been thought to be of any value whatsoever was voting record. With our loss of Lightnin' yesterday, people might be more hesitant to convict on that basis.
You've been calling for looking at the players at the bottom of the post count for a number of days now. You are in this list too. Was I supposed to wait? You are right, though. Suspicion of you was growing, and my post approached you from this perspective. If you are town I could see scum using that suspicion and adding to it. I do have to wonder if they would have done so in such an obvious way. Maybe so, since they are trying to act as much like townies as possible, but I was very up-front with my suspicions of you, and also up-front with letting everyone know I didn't find a smoking gun, and that I wasn't convinced you were scum.

Oh, and speaking of our dearly departed Lightnin', let's take a look back at my "low-post-count investigation" results post (Post #1503) (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8576868&postcount=1503). When we reread it now, it look like I was wrong about it not being a good way to find scum. I stated in there that you were probably "Not Scum", but noted the good investigative work you did in damning Lightnin':Man, do those that last two sentences ring unbelievably true now -- we have you making a post-by-post analysis of a player who has been rising in suspicion, you start out by calling him "over-defensive", and proceed to pick every minor nit you can you find -- "small thing"s or "odd suspicion"s, as you refer to them -- things that are either non-issues, or are just easily explained.

Sound familiar?
Yep, sounds familiar. If you look at that post in context, though, I didn't post that out of the blue like I did for you. At the time, I was very convinced that Projammer was scum, and happened to mention Lightnin' was near the top of my FOS list. Lightnin' asked me why I suspected him, so I outlined what I found scummy about his posts. Post-by-post analysis is what I do. I've considered changing that, though, because I have a suspicion they are too long and people just skim through them without really paying much attention.

Also for the record, I really did think Lightnin' was scum yesterday when I voted for him. As I was reviewing the thread (mostly looking for your posts) I re-read a bunch of Lightnin's, and he really did come across to me as scummy. He made some very odd statements, and made some very odd plays. Backed up by his voting record I fully expected on that last refresh before the results were announced that he'd come up scum and I could sleep happily that night.

You built up a dam out of paper mâché and hoped it would hold water. And unfortunately for the rest of us, it did, and now we're down another town player. Now you're trying the exact same move against me. Time for your dam to burst.
Oh come now, I was hardly the only one who thought Lightnin' was more likely to be scum than not. My post had very little to do with his lynching. My vote did, but that's not what you're calling me on here.

Perhaps others will see your play this past day for what it is, perhaps not. However, if someone were to put themselves in the mindset that I'm definitely town and reread your original investigation of me (Post #1505) (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8577443&postcount=1505), then there is a good chance they'll see you for what you are.
My post was exactly what it looks like. I saw that there was suspicion of you, realized that I had almost no read on you, and decided to see for myself. I'm suspicious of low post-count players a little more than those who are out-front, so I decided to have a look at you. I also decided to post what I'd found for the town's benefit. This is how this game is supposed to work. If you're town you should expect this to happen, and not rush to kill anyone looking closely at you.

Vote nesta
[color removed]

Believe me or not, I'm happy with your response to my FOS. I reviewed your history in the game and posted what I found in a hope of getting a better read on you. To some extent that's worked. I get the feeling now that you're just as confused at this point as I am. I don't think scum would react like you have, so you've dropped a few notches on my suspicion list. If you're scum, well played.

Vote for me until one of us is dead if you like. I think you're being a little shortsighted, though. Before I FOSed you I was in your probably town column, so it seems to me the only reason I switched to definitely scum is that I wanted to figure out if you were scum or not. Ask yourself if this is something scum would do. If you stay convinced that I'm scum, so be it, but please don't let this tunnel-vision keep you from looking for scum that don't depend on my being one.

[Omi no Kami]

For the record regarding SCL, while I'm still suspicious of her she hasn't done anything since I last accused her to change my mind about anything. She's evasive, she rarely provides a straight answer to my accusations, and she seems to dodge my questions by intentional misunderstanding extremely simple statements. But I already said my piece about her. If anyone wants me to clarify my earlier statements I'll be happy to, but since the clock was counting down I thought it was important to give a clear vote.

And I voted for RQ because I still suspect him or her more than I do SCL. ^^

[Omi no Kami]

Oops, I just caught up and saw that someone wants a thorough explaination for the RQ vote, so lemme write one up.

[tirial]

I DID have a read on tirial that she was strong town, so I'm inclined to forgive her taking a "safe" vote because she at least provided reasoning for it. However, it's also entirely possible that she was either recruited last night, or the night before, so most of my significantly lessened trust in her is more due to that. As I said before, even though it's a realistic possibility that she's been recruited, I don't think it's worth pursuing at this time.Thanks, but with a chance of a recruit, you really shouldn't trust anyone at the moment.

"Do you think that there's nothing suspicious about four safe votes in such a tight race?" - Possibly, but I really wasn't sure if it was town v town, as I said at the time, and under those circumstances I wasn't going to vote for either.

Lemur866 Not posting all notes, but the basic way I was looking at it was:
1) Mafia won't play as team, so look for three people in the strands
1 - under the radar
2 - vocal town
3 - Standard townie.
Vocal town pretty much gives you a choice of me and Idle Thoughts - I know I'm town and my other reasons for voting for him were laid out previously. I'm still surprised he claimed experience on the first day - it tends to be more useful to the town if no one knows you have it.

Under the radar gives Hal Briston, and nesta - I'm pretty much tied on them, as both are staying very low. SnakesCatLady, Omi no Kami and Millet were on this list, but Omi no kami went for fluiddruid quite vocally (may be a bluff) and Millet is posting more SnakesCatLady got dragged off this list by the fluiddruid bandwagon and then Idle Thought accusations.

Standard Townie gives the remaining set, but of them all you come up as scummie because of the reasons mentioned before, and the fact that when you responded to my accusations you didn't seem the realise the problem wasn't in what you said, it was in the knowledge you would get if anyone responded. It would take an experienced player to respond without giving aware anything useful to the mafia (which Idle Thoughts managed). That sort of question is "fishing".

They won't vote as a team, so on Day 2 look for a split vote 2/2, 3/1, a failure to vote (yes this fingers me or Omi No Kami) or a No lynch vote (which leaves CaerieD). There will be more than one scum in each set, but its easier to isolate the most scummy in each group. On Day 3 look for the swing votes to get fluiddruid off (makes Blastermaster look bad). On Day One? God knows. The only person left from that debacle is Omi No kami.

2) Look at voting patterns - where do people fall in the chart?
3) Look at Millet's chart - who voted when? In town v town they've got no odds. On Day 3, they may be mid to late Projammer votes, or mid- fluiddruid votes (Depends when they hung her out to dry) On Day 4 they could be anywhere - pretty obvious they weren't going to get her off.
4) Check the posts around the vote for me too's, motives and bandwagon jumping.

Idle Thoughts, thanks, but it depends on IRL unfortunately. Should know if sanity is returning by Tuesday.

[Omi no Kami]

Hmm, so while looking back I found a few interesting tidbits from fluiddruid's day. One was his insistence that analyzing the no kill days was bad for town: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8555543&postcount=1323 . Was there a reason he didn't want us thinking along those lines, or had he decided that he was a goner and begun blowing smoke everywhere? Either way, I would like to hear people's opinions about his record; aside from his final defense post, how much of his stuff is useful, and how much was meant for us to look at after his death?

(in his defense post he mentioned
Now of course that assumes that the recruit hasn't been used. I don't think it has. Why? The Mafia have no reason to recruit so early. As has been stated, there are no confirmed and trusted townies, and the Do-Gooder is still in play. It makes the most sense for the Mafia to hold the recruitment as long as possible until they have no choice but to use it to survive." . Again with the recruiting line. Probably BS at that point, but still good to note.)

Anyway, about Rachm Qoch and why I voted for him: for one, he's quiet. Not a big deal, but I'm fairly certain that at least a few gangsters are hiding this way. Second, a lot of his long posts strike me as being suspiciously devoid of useful information. Take as an example http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8548095&postcount=1222 ; it may just be his honest opinion, but it strikes me as remarkably unhelpful; almost as if he's trying to tread carefully so his inside knowledge (if he's scum) doesn't accidentally leak out in the way he analyzes things.

Tirial was the one to spot this before he was all suspicious-like, but he mentioned that Rachm Qoch tried to set up at least two voting blocks with "me too" votes, where he basically instantly agreed with someone else's accusations without providing any feedback.
(He usually me-too'd with CaerieD's posts, from what I recall. I assume that means that if he's scum, she's more likely than not innocent.)

In general, however, what makes me wary of Rachm Qoch (and SCL, for that matter; see http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8512150&postcount=768 ) is that he's an extremely neutral player; he just kind of sits back, posts random noise every so often, and only really gets engaged when somebody accuses him of something.

Check out http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8514850&postcount=818 , for instance, where he (from my vantage point) comes up with this claim that I'm trying to take votes away from Projammer out of nowhere. We know now that Projammer was town, so my suspicion is that if he is, in fact, scummy, he was probably trying to lay groundwork for the town to lynch me later. If he's innocent though, I have no clue what was up with that bit.

And that's basically my stance. No alarm bells or gigantic tells, but a lot of circumstantial evidence adding up. I have about as much evidence for SCL, but RQ honestly just pings my scum radar a bit more.

[SnakesCatLady]

I had intended to vote for CaerieD again today, but for some reason I'm not as suspcious of her as I used to be. I still think her defense of fluiddruid marks her as scum, but there is a possibility she just defended the wrong person. Since defending anyone at all in this game seems to be a good way to get it trouble it wasn't the wisest move she could have made, and I am still suspicious of her, but I don't think my vote is going to her because there are some recent entries in the scum sweepstakes.

Omi no Kami, I have gone back and read some earlier threads and something you said really jumped out at me. How I "agreed with current accusations". (post #768) That is pure unmitigated bullshit. I voted for fluiddruid three days in a row, whether anyone else was voting for her or not - how is that "agreeing" with anyone?

Lemur866 also kind of took me by surprise with the out of the blue vote for me yesterday. He's flown so low in this game that I wasn't really considering him at all, but that made me sit up and take notice. If a few others had voted for me, he would have been safely in the middle.

[Omi no Kami]

SCL, quite frankly I don't give a fuck what you think at this point. As I've subsequently stated on multiple occasions I wasn't accusing either you or RQ in that post; I was using your recent behavior as an example of the archetype I was refering to. Clear? Good. Fuck off.

[SnakesCatLady]

SCL, quite frankly I don't give a fuck what you think at this point. As I've subsequently stated on multiple occasions I wasn't accusing either you or RQ in that post; I was using your recent behavior as an example of the archetype I was refering to. Clear? Good. Fuck off.

Take your RL issues somewhere else or get a sub.

[Millit the Frail]

SCL, quite frankly I don't give a fuck what you think at this point. As I've subsequently stated on multiple occasions I wasn't accusing either you or RQ in that post; I was using your recent behavior as an example of the archetype I was refering to. Clear? Good. Fuck off.

Chill out, honey! "Kinder and Gentler," remember? :p I don't want the mods slapping you down, so let's not use those four-letter words around here.

I get your frustration, though. I have no idea what to do right now. I was so colossally wrong in most of my votes so far that I feel like I'm starting from the ground up. I vacillate between thinking that there's no possible way that we can win (Detective gone early, this recruitment nonsense) and thinking that we've been giving a fresh chance (every morning, townies present and accounted for).

I'm leaning toward SCL myself. But then I've been wrong so many times that I'm wondering if my suspicion means she's town....

Now, as promised, I'm going to do some reading and report back. It's not very beneficial to get caught up in today without some context, right?

[tirial]

Since I am all "suspicious-like" as Omi no kami puts it, I'll limit myself to facts.

third vote pattern

Day One
NAF - fluiddruid
p422 Lighnin(T), dnooman(T)
p447
Omi No Kami (U), CaerieD (U)
Projammer(T), percypercy(T)
percypercy(T) fluiddruid (S) *

Day Two
projammer (T) - nesta(U)
dnooman - CaerieD(U)
end of P841
projammer(T) - Millet
dnooman (T) - Hal Briston

Day Three
Fluiddruid - Blastermaster who unvoted. Then Idle Thoughts
Projammer - Hal Briston (P1028)

Day 4
fluiddruid - snakescatlady

Day 5
Lightnin' - DarksideCookies
SnakesCatLady - Lemur866
CaerieD - Blastermaster

However looking at the fluiddruid's past pasts, she actually throws suspicion at moe than SnakesCatLady.

P948 before fluiddruid knew she was in trouble:
"In regards to everyone: I am torn about Projammer. The more I read, the more convinced I may be wrong about him being Town. He's escaped the noose so far but either a lot of people have genuine suspicion, or he's a convenient scapegoat. In any case, the strongest evidence I have is his no lynch vote. Along the same lines I have to be suspicious of him, and any no vote/no lynch/throwaway from last time. Of those, based on what's happened so far today, I'm most strongly suspicious of CaerieD, Projammer, and lemur866, and possibly still you, Omi no Kami... I hope that you're just a passionate townie, and not someone setting me up as a convenient scapegoat."
A smart mafia would include at least one scum on that list. Then again a smart scum wouldn't have 100% anti-town vote record

Defense post 1251 fluiddruid fingers:
- Snakescatlady. Full disclosure, as you'll recall she voted for me in Day Two right before the whole Kyrie Eleison / breadcrumb debate. She also failed to cast a meaningful vote in Day One. She is also voting for me, in her own words, based on me voting for townies in the first few days. This is either extremely illogical or suspicious. Her only conclusive vote so far has been to vote for me in Day Three - after she voted for me in Day Two, this would have been hard to avoid. Please remember this if I die.

- Omi no Kami has so far neglected to cast a final vote EVER. I am baffled as to why this has been largely overlooked.

- Lemur866 failed to cast a meaningful vote either day and frankly has been hanging back in debate.
. Again, if a smart scum would included at least one scum in that list, we can compare lists and see what changes.
List 1 CaerieD, Projammer, Lemur866 and (Possibly) Omi No Kami
List 2 SnakesCatLady, Omi No Kami and Lemur866.

Out of all of them, the strongest scum vibes I get are from Lemur866 and CaerieD. CaerieD is mentioned once but dropped from the defense post fluiddruid could expect us to analyse. Lemur866 is on both. I don't know what to make of it. Scum tell? Any comments?

BTW P278, fluiddruid says Blastermaster and Cookies look scummy for using random.org. Would he direct attention their way that early if they were really scum, or is it a double bluff?

[Idle Thoughts]

Hmm, so while looking back I found a few interesting tidbits from fluiddruid's day. One was his insistence.....


Snipped and bolding mine.

What about Omi No Kami's insistence that fluiddruid is a him when she's actually a her? :p:p;)

[Millit the Frail]

I'm not sure that I can decipher your first few notes, tirial. Are you saying that each of these people made the third vote? Is that a scum tell anymore? (See below.)

More about fluiddruid: With the exception of her very last, last-ditch vote for SCL, every vote from fluiddruid was for a now-confirmed townie. That looks bad for SCL, because that

Fluiddruid in the voting order for those townies:
NAF: She was third (and unvoted soon after Kyrie, the originator of that bandwagon, did so).
percy: She was third.
Kyrie: She was first and only (and unvoted when Projammer=7 and dnooman=6, to tie it up).
dnooman: She was sixth.
Projammer: She was seventh.

...and finally, the unknown:
SCL: She was first and only.

I still think SCL was a bluff. She's being awfully defensive, but not in a very helpful way.

Today, I've looked over the voting records, time and time again, and I have a few notes on that.

After the first half of the first day, which is almost useless, since we had nothing to go on and were voting pretty much randomly, there's a bit of a vote pattern: The known dead townies voted overwhelmingly for other dead townies. It's kind of a sad story. The two unknowns that garnered votes from the dead townies (after the opening mayhem) are Cookies and CaerieD. I'm not sure what that means, but I'm feeling better about both of them.

As far as the opening mayhem, Diggit and Lemur got a couple of dead townie votes, as did Omi no Kami. Omi was the only one that was not unvoted by the voter. That voter was Kyrie, who, the very next day, voted for fluid, our only known Mafia, and was struck down immediately. Omi no Kami looks suspicious there.

**********

I'll end this by saying that I'm not nearly as good with words and arguments as I am with hard data. Not statistics, necessarily, but charts and tables and things. (What can I say? IRL, I do clinical trials research.) That's why I'm the self-appointed resident Spreadsheet Maven. I'm a very slow reader, so going back over the thread nets me next to nothing, but if anyone wants any data pulled from past votes, please let me know. I'm working on a "how often has each player voted with the majority" thing right now. Think that will be useful? Give me feedback.

[Millit the Frail]

Snipped and bolding mine.

What about Omi No Kami's insistence that fluiddruid is a him when she's actually a her? :p:p;)

Yeah, that plagues all of us through this game. I figured that my username was way too feminine for anyone to mis-pronoun me, but Hal managed to do it anyway. No worries, Hal...it's cool, I'm just not a dude.

(Oh, crap...I verbed another noun.)

(What? Oh....shit....)

[SnakesCatLady]

I have given up on trying to defend myself - the last time I tried it earned me a "fuck off". If you want to lynch another townie, go right ahead. I'm sure fluiddruid will enjoy the laugh.

[Hal Briston]

I've only got time for a quick point or two, so.... Again, if a smart scum would included at least one scum in that list, we can compare lists and see what changes.
List 1 CaerieD, Projammer, Lemur866 and (Possibly) Omi No Kami
List 2 SnakesCatLady, Omi No Kami and Lemur866.

Out of all of them, the strongest scum vibes I get are from Lemur866 and CaerieD. CaerieD is mentioned once but dropped from the defense post fluiddruid could expect us to analyze. Lemur866 is on both. I don't know what to make of it. Scum tell? Any comments?When I read List 1 further up in your post, I applied a little psychology to it -- if a person wanted to hide an ally amongst a list of enemies, the classic position is to name them third. It's usually not even done consciously.

So, If I were looking at these two lists as an outside observer, the fact that in both lists, the same person is named third might be awfully telling.

If we're assuming that she named a scum teammate in her lists, then either fluiddruid has studied a bit of psychology, or Lemur866 is well deserving of a major FOS.

I figured that my username was way too feminine for anyone to mis-pronoun me, but Hal managed to do it anyway.Did I? Ahh, crap...I'm sorry. I believe I remember the post you're referring to, and I thought I went out of my way to be gender-neutral in it (although I was pretty sure you were female).

Well, my player chart has an (F) next to your name now. :)

[DiggitCamara]

SCL, quite frankly I don't give a fuck what you think at this point. As I've subsequently stated on multiple occasions I wasn't accusing either you or RQ in that post; I was using your recent behavior as an example of the archetype I was refering to. Clear? Good. Fuck off.
A very fine post, indeed.

I don't know if you wrote your post in your game persona or if you wrote the post in earnest, Omi no Kami. I am not a mod, I am not a junior mod and I am not the moderator of this game.

However, I joined this game thinking it would be a contest of wits. I joined this game believing most (if not all others) were playing in the same spirit I was playing in.

There is some friction involved in any game of this nature, and mostly I expect people to understand it and brace themselves against it. On the other hand, I enjoy (and hope to continue enjoying) games of this nature on this message board.

The posts you make decrying your supposed prosecution and the post I am citing are lessening my enjoyment of this game. Since, apparently, you have a very thin skin regarding accusations in your direction, I will vote Omi no Kami, not because I think you are scum but because I at least will enjoy this game more once you are out of it.

[Omi no Kami]

A very fine post, indeed.

I don't know if you wrote your post in your game persona or if you wrote the post in earnest, Omi no Kami. I am not a mod, I am not a junior mod and I am not the moderator of this game.

However, I joined this game thinking it would be a contest of wits. I joined this game believing most (if not all others) were playing in the same spirit I was playing in.

There is some friction involved in any game of this nature, and mostly I expect people to understand it and brace themselves against it. On the other hand, I enjoy (and hope to continue enjoying) games of this nature on this message board.

The posts you make decrying your supposed prosecution and the post I am citing are lessening my enjoyment of this game. Since, apparently, you have a very thin skin regarding accusations in your direction, I will vote Omi no Kami, not because I think you are scum but because I at least will enjoy this game more once you are out of it.

Fine with me.


Could I please request to be subbed out?

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Come on y'all. This is all fun and games, right? I mean, yeah...it is addictive, eats up some time, and can get in the way of things like...I dunno...work, spouses, remembering to eat and bathe. But I do always remember to breathe :)

[tirial]

Omi no Kami, sorry to hear that you want to be subbed, but if you really don't like being accused that much, it might be for the best.

Millet The first name on the list is the person who received the third vote, the second name is the person who was the third vote for them. CaerieD and Blastermaster seem to be the only people who come up twice.

SnakesCatLady not everyone is telling you to F off. If you really think you are going to be lynched could you mention anyone you think may be suspicious or scum, the main components of your scum list and any tells you think the town needs to look at - if you are town that would be useful.

I hate to say it, but we seem to be going round and round in circles, and getting sidetracked into rows between posters, rather than actively looking for scum. We have a limited amount of time here, the scum have given us little in the way of information over the last few nights, and we need to start taking an active approach to finding them. At the moment, the scum could just sit there voting no-kill each night and we'd wipe the town out for them, the way we are going.

We can't keep hanging around waiting for a smoking gun because we aren't going to get it (and even when we did - from the detective - it took two days to lynch the scum). All we've got is analysis, thread tells and so on, and the more debate we can post the more likely we are to find something, or the more likely a scum player is to slip.

[SnakesCatLady]

Tirial, I understand that, and I did post my suspicions list yesterday when it looked like I might be getting a rope necklace. If anyone has any specific questions regarding my votes or my behavior, I will answer them to the best of my ability. I will continue to participate in the game. I simply was surprised - and got my feelings hurt - by Omi no Kami's little snark attack yesterday. Since she hasn't bothered to apologize I assume she considers that normal game play and I'm glad she's subbing out.

Since my votes against fluiddruid seem to be getting me the most suspicion, I will try one more time to explain them. Day 2, I voted on a guess - we didn't have very much to go on at the time - based on her votes on Day 1. When the sun came up on Day 2 both of the people she had voted for on Day 1 (NAF1138 (unvoted) was nightkilled, percypercy was lynched) were dead. Her behavior on that and Days 3 and 4 reinforced my suspicions of her. It was a lucky guess on Day 2.

[Gadarene]

Omi No Kami:

Could I please request to be subbed out?

I'm sorry to hear it, but okay. zuma is now replacing Omi No Kami in the game. Updated player list to follow.

[tirial]

I'm sorry to hear it, but okay. zuma is now replacing Omi No Kami in the game. Updated player list to follow.I hate to say it, but I am relieved. It is difficult to push points when the target threatens to sub (which has happened twice).

Welcome zuma - how quickly can you get up to speed?

Since she hasn't bothered to apologize I assume she considers that normal game play and I'm glad she's subbing out. Actually I checked a few games of mafia and mafiascum.net, and its not normal gameplay at all. The issue not so much being the swearing (that's a board issue) as the threatening to sub out when pushed, which seems to be considered a breach of the "play fair" rule.

We've got until tomorrow night. Can we put this behind us and start digging?

Oh, and to get things started: FOS Lemur866 for reasons already given.
There are plenty of alternatives to you Lemur866, (personally I'd consider Zuma/Omi no Kami, CaerieD, Blastermaster, etc.), so please point some out. If we can get the discussion moving we might get something useful.

[Hal Briston]

Hmmm...I find it very hard to believe that scum would have skin as thin as Omi's seemed to be of late. In light of this, I'm going to go ahead and Anti-FOS zuma (and welcome to the fray...please don't prove me wrong...I'd hate to have to lynch you :)).

[DiggitCamara]

Come on y'all. This is all fun and games, right? I mean, yeah...it is addictive, eats up some time, and can get in the way of things like...I dunno...work, spouses, remembering to eat and bathe. But I do always remember to breathe :)
I wouldn't have minded that much if it was the first time and if it hadn't obviously started affecting other players enjoyment of the game (as witnessed by SnakesCatLady's comment that she didn't dare defend herself anymore).

But, let's bygones be bygones. Unvote zuma.

[SnakesCatLady]

Now that that is taken care of...ok, I'm still suspicious of Zuma simply because of Omi no Kami's thin skin and because of her record of not voting. I'm not putting a vote or even an FOS on Zuma at this time, though. I wish Omi on Kami had subbed out earlier if she was going to do so, because now, if Zuma is scum, we're very likely to let him/her live longer just to see how he/she acts and votes.

Which is it, Zuma? Male or female? We do try to address others by the correct gender here, even if we are not always correct. :)

I am really leaning toward voting for Lemur 866. He voted for fluiddruid fairly late in the day and has danced around a lot, voting mostly safe, non threatening votes. I think he was trying to get a bandwagon rolling on me, and since I'm town I don't appreciate that.

I'm still suspicious of CaerieD and will be watching her closely.

If my notes are correct I think we have two players with one vote each - Idle Thoughts has voted for me and Hal Briston has voted for nesta.

[DiggitCamara]

Like I said, I have been re-reading Day 3's events.

From it, I can pretty much put IdleThought on my trusted list, since he started the anti-fluiddruid movement.

And from it, Lemur866 (posts 912 and 916, fluiddruid's first "defense") and ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies come up looking pretty scummy to me.

I'm still undecided about CaerieD and BlasterMaster. Particularly the latter, since he pretty much saved fluiddruid with his vote-switch (but then, he was one of the first promoters of fluiddruid's lynching.

Having said that, I'll vote Lemur866.

[Gadarene]

Could you do that again in blue type, Diggit? Vote count coming soon as well.

[DiggitCamara]

Could you do that again in blue type, Diggit? Vote count coming soon as well.
OK. If you insist.. :D

Vote Lemur866

[Millit the Frail]

If my notes are correct I think we have two players with one vote each - Idle Thoughts has voted for me and Hal Briston has voted for nesta.

That's correct. I replaced "Omi no K" with "Omi/zuma" on the spreadsheet.

I realize that my last post had a sentence fragment in it:

More about fluiddruid: With the exception of her very last, last-ditch vote for SCL, every vote from fluiddruid was for a now-confirmed townie. That looks bad for SCL, because that

To finish: because that, being her one vote for an "unknown" (other than Lightnin', whom she had to have assumed was not long for this world), would be her only chance to implicate another Mafia.

I'm looking over the Day 4 swing, the only day that has had a known, true Mafia-to-townie vote swing.

A question: What's up with Blaster Master's vote/unvote/vote?
Projammer=5 (Lightnin', Millit the Frail, Hal Briston, Lemur866, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)
fluiddruid=6 (tirial, SnakesCatLady, Idle Thoughts, Rachm Qoch, nesta, DiggitCamara)

Blaster's posts and other relevant miscellany:

1055 - Vote fluiddruid. ("Pending a convincing defense post.") (NOTE: Says Projammer is "the most weaselly of the bunch.")

****1057 - Fluid votes Projammer, with admittedly very weak scummy feelings toward him. (Ha.) Now Projammer=6, fluiddruid=7****

1062 - Unvote fluiddruid, Vote Projammer. (The big "Oh crap" post. "Bad feeling about this," analysis of all of Kyrie's Day 2 posts, "No WAY fluid is the breadcrumb.") Now Projammer=7, fluiddruid=6

****This is met with general dubiousness by tirial****

****1066 - CaerieD buys it hook, line, and sinker (though she is "terribly reluctant"), switches vote from SCL (her only vote!) to Projammer.****

****several - tirial calls CaerieD on it, CaerieD holds fast, Idle calls CaerieD on it.****

1076 - Blaster repeats, the breadcrumb is not fluid!! (ASIDE: It was totally fluid.)

****1077 - CaerieD is all, yeah, if Proj is town and fluid is Mafia, I'll look bad...but I've got to be me, so screw it****

****more general dubiousness from Diggit****

1080 - Blaster is "Still highly suspicious of fluiddruid," will vote for her or Lightnin' tomorrow. (IN THE YEAR 2000: In fact, the next day, Blaster came shooting out of the box with the very first vote: for Lightnin'. After three votes had piled up for fluid (Idle, tirial, SCL), Blaster changed his vote to fluid.)

****1082 - Projammer buys the farm.****

Suspicious? I think probably. He had to know he could count on fluiddruid to throw a vote toward Projammer, at least a weak one, under the guise of "saving her own skin." So was the vote for fluid a big setup? Did he stage his little "change of heart" to make his vote, the DECIDING VOTE, look less bad? His was the one that decided it all (and ultimately convinced CaerieD to seal the deal with an 11th hour vote). Was the change of heart set up to "soften the blow?"

Huge FOS on Blaster Master. More to come, because if the rest of his votes look scummy, then I'm making my vote.

[Millit the Frail]

I meant Day 3.

And Diggit, yes, Blaster Master voted for fluid earlier in the day too, but he took it back right away. I'm going to go over the rest of his votes and post more analysis later. I feel like he played chicken with his votes for fluid. Look at the very beginning of Day 4 for something of a smoking gun.

[Gadarene]

Updated player list:

Alive:

3. CaerieD
4. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
5. Hal Briston
6. nesta
9. SnakesCatLady
11. Lemur866
12. tirial
13. Blaster Master
14. Millit the Frail
15. Rachm Qoch
16. DiggitCamara
19. zuma
20. Idle Thoughts

Dead:

8. percypercy -- citizen (lynched, Day One)
2. NAF1138 -- citizen (murdered, Night One)
17. dnooman -- citizen (lynched, Day Two)
18. Kyrie Eleison -- detective (murdered, Night Two)
7. Projammer -- do-gooder (lynched, Day Three)
1. fluiddruid -- mafia (lynched, Day Four)
10. Lightnin' -- do-gooder (lynched, Day Five)

Thirteen players left; seven votes needed to lynch.

[Gadarene]

Updated Vote Count

1 -- nesta (Hal Briston)
1 -- SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts)
1 -- Lemur866 (DiggitCamara)

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Like I said, I have been re-reading Day 3's events.

From it, I can pretty much put IdleThought on my trusted list, since he started the anti-fluiddruid movement.

And from it, Lemur866 (posts 912 and 916, fluiddruid's first "defense") and ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies come up looking pretty scummy to me.

I'm still undecided about CaerieD and BlasterMaster. Particularly the latter, since he pretty much saved fluiddruid with his vote-switch (but then, he was one of the first promoters of fluiddruid's lynching.

Having said that, I'll vote Lemur866.

So you're not buying that I'm town, or the high likelyhood that one of the other three who voted for Lightnin' is scum. Duly noted. FOS on Diggit. Not enough for a vote, but anyone who has a similar view will also be FOS'd by me.

[SnakesCatLady]

So you're not buying that I'm town, or the high likelyhood that one of the other three who voted for Lightnin' is scum. Duly noted. FOS on Diggit. Not enough for a vote, but anyone who has a similar view will also be FOS'd by me.

If we FOS everyone who doesn't buy that another player is town, we will FOS everyone.

I agree with you that one of the four who voted for Lightnin' is scum. It could very well be you. You voted for Projammer on Days 2 and 3 and voted for fluiddruid very, very late on Day 4.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

If we FOS everyone who doesn't buy that another player is town, we will FOS everyone.

I agree with you that one of the four who voted for Lightnin' is scum. It could very well be you. You voted for Projammer on Days 2 and 3 and voted for fluiddruid very, very late on Day 4.

That very well may be true. I'll conceed if it comes to pass that enough has been said which causes me to FOS everyone but myself over the course of this day.

I've always been a bit :dubious: about your definition of "late" in voting. You can be found tapping your toe a couple of times over the past few game days.

Perhaps it is just a difference in playing style, perhaps not. As I have been affected enough by rl to arrive late (and even miss a vote during game 1), I tend not to put much default scumminess on lateness. Ymmv.

[tirial]

So you're not buying that I'm town, or the high likelyhood that one of the other three who voted for Lightnin' is scum. Duly noted. FOS on Diggit. Not enough for a vote, but anyone who has a similar view will also be FOS'd by me
That very well may be true. I'll conceed if it comes to pass that enough has been said which causes me to FOS everyone but myself over the course of this day.
I'm sorry but I don't get this - can you expand on your reasoning?

The votes for Lightnin' were DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, and nesta (according to Gadarene's post). There may be scum in there, but I can understand someone voting for someone outside that list if they've got other reasons from previous days to. I also suspect if it was town v town, that the mafia may not have got involved as obviously as they would if it were town v. scum. Since we only know one day was town v. scum (Day 3 - to a lesser extent Day 4, although that was general pile-on v. scum) I can understand why Diggit is looking at Day 3. Why does that make him suspicious?

We can't ignore yesterday, but FOSing anyone who doesn't vote for one of the people who voted for Lightnin' just doesn't make sense to me. Can you clarify?

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

I'm sorry but I don't get this - can you expand on your reasoning?

The votes for Lightnin' were DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, and nesta (according to Gadarene's post). There may be scum in there, but I can understand someone voting for someone outside that list if they've got other reasons from previous days to. I also suspect if it was town v town, that the mafia may not have got involved as obviously as they would if it were town v. scum. Since we only know one day was town v. scum (Day 3 - to a lesser extent Day 4, although that was general pile-on v. scum) I can understand why Diggit is looking at Day 3. Why does that make him suspicious?

We can't ignore yesterday, but FOSing anyone who doesn't vote for one of the people who voted for Lightnin' just doesn't make sense to me. Can you clarify?

Diggit's analysis of Day 3 led him to suspect me and Lemur, which is pretty much 180 degrees away from either of the scenarios that I present in post #1608. One of those scenarios I'm pretty damn sure of (nesta, Millit, or Diggit being scum). All plenty of reason to FOS Diggit, from my perspective.

[Idle Thoughts]

I wouldn't have minded that much if it was the first time and if it hadn't obviously started affecting other players enjoyment of the game (as witnessed by SnakesCatLady's comment that she didn't dare defend herself anymore).

But, let's bygones be bygones. Unvote zuma.

Yeah...but you were all ready to vote out someone who you figured wanted to be out anyway. What better an excuse (if one is scum and know that someone is town) to use your vote that way?



and SCL:

[quote=Now that that is taken care of...ok, I'm still suspicious of Zuma simply because of Omi no Kami's thin skin and because of her record of not voting. I'm not putting a vote or even an FOS on Zuma at this time, though. I wish Omi on Kami had subbed out earlier if she was going to do so, because now, if Zuma is scum, we're very likely to let him/her live longer just to see how he/she acts and votes.
[/quote]

Snipped.

If anything has convinced me you are scum, it was this part here. I think Omi's frustration and actual asking to be taken out all of shows he was town. I can't imagine any mafia member being asked to get taken out.
So for these reasons and feelings (number one: I was never suspicious of Omi before and always felt he was probably town), it makes me feel very strongly that Zuma is pro-town too.

You and DiggitCamara though....

Well, I don't think that sentence needs to be finished.

[Idle Thoughts]

Like I said, I have been re-reading Day 3's events.

From it, I can pretty much put IdleThought on my trusted list, since he started the anti-fluiddruid movement.


And from it, Lemur866 (posts 912 and 916, fluiddruid's first "defense") and ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies come up looking pretty scummy to me.

I'm still undecided about CaerieD and BlasterMaster. Particularly the latter, since he pretty much saved fluiddruid with his vote-switch (but then, he was one of the first promoters of fluiddruid's lynching.

Having said that, I'll vote Lemur866.
Bolded mine.

:) Well, I'm flattered and honored that you feel you can trust me. Really, makes me feel kinda special. And while I'm glad I've garnered your trust and, in no way feel this off game wise....:)....





...I think you're strong scum. :p;)

SO! How are you today?


Haha, but seriously now. Sorry I can't return the trust, but the game is the game. I'm sure you understand. Heck, maybe I'm doing the mafia's job for them. But I don't feel it. *shrugs* Not at all.

[CaerieD]

Geez. I've actually begun dreaming about this game now.

All right, I've been waffling on things today, really unsure about where to go from here. On the one hand, I'm still fairly suspicious of SCL, as I have been for a while now, but on the other it seems like there wasn't much of a push for any of the three top lynching candidates yesterday, which makes me think all three of us were town, as I'd mentioned before.

I feel like we're back at square one, especially with our three mysterious no-kill nights. All of the analysis and debate on what they mean hasn't helped too much and I don't think we're really going to be able to figure it out.

Today, I was thinking mostly of voting for one of the people who'd avoided the top three in the last lynch, because that had seemed so odd. I went back over the previous day to see if there was anything in particular about one of that group that jumped out at me and I saw this exchange in P1542 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8580284&postcount=1542), P1544 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8580307&postcount=1544) and P1545 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8580325&postcount=1545).

Lemur's reasoning for voting for SCL seems sound enough, but it's so...oddly convenient to come at just that point. I don't really know what to make of it.

[SnakesCatLady]

CaerieD, I know we suspect each other, but there is a lot of that going around. I am glad I'm not the only one who saw Lemur866's vote as weird; either he was trying to put himself in the middle if I was lynched - thereby trying to avoid being seen as suspicious - or he was trying to distance himself from lynching another townie.

vote Lemur866.

[Idle Thoughts]

Hahaha.

I think you're trying to do it again SCL being as I also suspect Lemur yet suspect (as you know :p) you.

Tricky tricky!

[CaerieD]

CaerieD, I know we suspect each other, but there is a lot of that going around. I am glad I'm not the only one who saw Lemur866's vote as weird; either he was trying to put himself in the middle if I was lynched - thereby trying to avoid being seen as suspicious - or he was trying to distance himself from lynching another townie.

vote Lemur866.

[Color removed.]

Yeah, that's what it looked like to me, too. Not every third vote is necessarily scummy, but that one seemed very...off. I'd noticed it as a bit odd the first time around, but when I went back and re-read it I really paid attention to where it was in the middle of that discussion. A few minutes had gone by between posts so it seems likely that Lemur866 had seen the discussion between you and Idle Thoughts. I don't know if I'm going to vote off of that just yet, but I thought I'd throw it out there and see what others were thinking.

[SnakesCatLady]

Hahaha.

I think you're trying to do it again SCL being as I also suspect Lemur yet suspect (as you know :p) you.

Tricky tricky!

I don't think there is anything I can do to take your suspicion off of me. I've given up trying. I am simply trying to do the most good for the town I can.

[Millit the Frail]

Does anyone have anything to say about Blaster Master? I don't mean to be pushy, but it seems like we need some real play-by-play analysis going on in order to really indict anyone. I'm not feeling these "scummy vibe" or "one of the people in this list has to be scum" arguments.

I feel kind of in a rut, and without our detective, there's nothing real in this game to go on. No one (on our side) actually KNOWS anything. So we're just throwing darts around without any real strategy or logic. Yesterday felt almost like the first day again, and today's even worse. I strongly suspect that we need a new tactic, but every time I post anything based on voting records/voting order, it gets a stony silence. (Maybe it's the frailty....)

Does anyone want to hear more about Blaster Master? It'll take some time, so I'll only do it if it's worth my while. Otherwise, I'm probably going to take the easy road out and vote for SnakesCatLady.

On preview: Sorry, SCL, but no one has me convinced enough to vote for anyone else, and fluiddruid made you look really, really bad.

[SnakesCatLady]

On preview: Sorry, SCL, but no one has me convinced enough to vote for anyone else, and fluiddruid made you look really, really bad.

Of course she did. She was scum, and I am town. The more townies lynch each other, the more likely the scum are to win.

I'm resigned, but I will keep adding my thoughts and suspicions until the end. No hard feelings; this is only a game. One I would like the town to win, but still just a game.

I would like to hear your thoughts on BlasterMaster. I never noticed him much until the vote-unvote-vote-unvote thing on fluiddruid during Day 3, and he kind of slipped away from notice again after that. Which is suspicious of itself.

[Rachm Qoch]

Yeah, that's what it looked like to me, too. Not every third vote is necessarily scummy, but that one seemed very...off. I'd noticed it as a bit odd the first time around, but when I went back and re-read it I really paid attention to where it was in the middle of that discussion. A few minutes had gone by between posts so it seems likely that Lemur866 had seen the discussion between you and Idle Thoughts. I don't know if I'm going to vote off of that just yet, but I thought I'd throw it out there and see what others were thinking.That played a good part in my renewed suspicion of him. He stated that he had harbored suspicions of SnakesCatsLady for a while, but never addressed those between his vote for her early on and yesterday. I think there's a chance there's scum in the Lightnin voting block (ie ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, or DiggitCamara), in one of yesterday's vote leaders, and maybe one or more of the careful votes at the end. In retrospect, Hal's single vote for nesta isn't as suspicious, as she apparently was trying to provoke a response there. But Lemur866 hasn't really said much to allay my suspicions of him from Days 4 and 5. So [color=blue]vote Lemur866.

[zuma]

Hi everyone.

I wanted to check in before I start reading. I haven't really paid attention to this game so far (I heard there was an opening in this game over in the pirate game). I'm going to try to be fully caught up later tonight. At worse it'll be tomorrow.

Also, I'm a he :)

[tirial]

Does anyone want to hear more about Blaster Master? It'll take some time, so I'll only do it if it's worth my while. Otherwise, I'm probably going to take the easy road out and vote for SnakesCatLady.I'd definitely be interested in hearing your views on Blastermaster.

[zuma]

Oh lord. What have I gotten myself into?

I've made my way through almost half the thread so far, and will finish up tomorrow...

[tirial]

Oh lord. What have I gotten myself into?

I've made my way through almost half the thread so far, and will finish up tomorrow...I think the day ends tonight, so you may have to introduce yourself at the bar...

So far the suspects I can see are:
Blastermaster - for the votes that killed projammer one Day 3 and percypercy on Day One
CaerieD - for the votes following up from Blastermaster that contributed to both
Rachm Qoch - For intially starting following CaerieD's lead (including the two "met too" posts)
SnakesCatLady - For voting consistantly for fluiddruid and having fluiddruid finger her as an opponent*
Lemur866 - The "you all" post, and the fact he was named twice by fluiddruid as suspicious - once when fluiddruid was not in danger of lynching
Omi No kami/zuma - the failure to post, then to give final votes, and then threatening to sub.

*No I don't get this one - I can see how it might be a bluff by fluiddruid, but there are stronger tells. If SnakesCatLady is suspicious because fluiddruid said the town should go after her as a double bluff, why aren't the people fluiddruid named twice (Omi No Kami/zuma and Lemur866) even more suspicous?

I'll be blunt and say at the moment my vote is pulled between Lemur866, Blastermaster and CaerieD, but I'm just not happy enough about the case with CaerieD to vote for her - its possible if Blastermaster is scum she's a townie following his lead, or that if RachM Qoch is scum he was using her as a convenient shield. It also possible that none of them are.

BTW, Idle Thoughts
Well, I'm flattered and honored that you feel you can trust me. Really, makes me feel kinda special. And while I'm glad I've garnered your trust and, in no way feel this off game wise.......I think you're strong scum.SO! How are you today?
Haha, but seriously now. Sorry I can't return the trust, but the game is the game. I'm sure you understand. Heck, maybe I'm doing the mafia's job for them. But I don't feel it. *shrugs* Not at all.
Hahaha I think you're trying to do it again SCL being as I also suspect Lemur yet suspect (as you know) you.

Tricky tricky!
Are you on the happy pills? Surely this isn't the same analysis posting, probably-a-nightmare-to-defend-against, experienced player that I remember posting earlier in the game!? Nothing personal, but I think I'll go and look at analysis from someone who isn't laughing manically...

(And it seems to be much easier to follow the game when you've stopped caring about your job...)

Gadarene - any chance of a vote count?

[Gadarene]

Gadarene - any chance of a vote count?

Yeah, gimme a li'l bit.

[Blaster Master]

First of all, welcome Zuma.

I would like to hear your thoughts on BlasterMaster. I never noticed him much until the vote-unvote-vote-unvote thing on fluiddruid during Day 3, and he kind of slipped away from notice again after that. Which is suspicious of itself.
Really? You hadn't noticed me? Admittedly, I haven't been as vocal as tirial and Idle Thoughts, but I sure as heck haven't been quiet.

Because my actions on day 3 are drawing heat from misrepresentation, allow me to clarify:

I initially voted to lynch fluiddruid on day three in post 902 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8524077&postcount=902) (somehow conveniently dropped from Millit's analysis of me???)

I unvoted in post 922 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8525348&postcount=922) because there was an angle that I had not considered. Was I less suspicious of fluiddruid? No, but I wasn't about to leave a vote there and let a bandwagon run away on what I perceived as shaky ground.

I revoted fluiddruid in post 1055 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8537064&postcount=1055) after re-evaluating and thinking the day was over. Admittedly, up to this point, I'd pretty much been taking people at their word about the potential breadcrumbs, and I figured that even though I was slightly more suspicious of Projammer, since it was possible that we was a pro-town breadcrumb, and that fluiddruid was a scum-crumb, it only made sense then for that to sway my vote in fluiddruid's direction.

As soon as I posted that vote, I had a bad feeling, so I decided I'd re-read every one of Kyrie's posts from day 2 to decide on the breadcrumb for myself. So in post 1062 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8538468&postcount=1062) I laid out the results of that investigation. I can't say whether or not I was right or wrong, because all of the potential breadcrumbs from Kyrie turned out to be right. My main point was, as I outlined when I initially voted for fluiddruid, was that I was actually more suspicious of Projammer the whole time, but I let all the talk of her potential as a breadcrumb sway my vote, and once I thought it was a low possibility, I went with my stronger suspicion which was, admittedly wrong.

Now I've got to ask, if my reasoning and voting on day three was SO suspicious, why wasn't it heavily questioned then, or the next day, or even the day after fluiddruid was lynched and I'd "saved" her? If you disagree with my reasoning, inside of the information that we all had at the time, then challenge my reasoning, but misrepresenting my actions is just...silly.

[tirial]

Now I've got to ask, if my reasoning and voting on day three was SO suspicious, why wasn't it heavily questioned then, or the next day, or even the day after fluiddruid was lynched and I'd "saved" her? If you disagree with my reasoning, inside of the information that we all had at the time, then challenge my reasoning, but misrepresenting my actions is just...silly.
Strange, I thought I questioned it at the time - not least in P1491 (which you quoted yourself to try to make Lightnin' look like scum). I thought you were one of the "unreliable" votes for fluiddruid the first day we were after him, but unfortunately that can either mean easily swayed townie or scum, so its not conclusive.

No one else seems to have picked up on it, which I suppose means I should really vote for you to draw attention to it - the problem is lemur866 looks scummier. (What with the fishing expeditions, "you all comment", fluiddruid naming him twice, etc.)

[DiggitCamara]

Yeah...but you were all ready to vote out someone who you figured wanted to be out anyway. What better an excuse (if one is scum and know that someone is town) to use your vote that way?

My reasons for my vote were (I think) pretty clear: whether Omi no Kami was scum didn't matter to me. I wanted him/her out of the game because he/she was a really bad player who took any comment on him/her as a personal matter.

(snip)

Haha, but seriously now. Sorry I can't return the trust, but the game is the game. I'm sure you understand. Heck, maybe I'm doing the mafia's job for them. But I don't feel it. *shrugs* Not at all.


No problem. Actually I think it's good strategy on your part: try to look objectively at someone's posts, not at their attitude towards you personally. And that's why I put you on my trusted list: you started the anti-fluiddruid movement when there was no incentive for scum to do so.

[Blaster Master]

Strange, I thought I questioned it at the time - not least in P1491 (which you quoted yourself to try to make Lightnin' look like scum). I thought you were one of the "unreliable" votes for fluiddruid the first day we were after him, but unfortunately that can either mean easily swayed townie or scum, so its not conclusive.

No one else seems to have picked up on it, which I suppose means I should really vote for you to draw attention to it - the problem is lemur866 looks scummier. (What with the fishing expeditions, "you all comment", fluiddruid naming him twice, etc.)

I remember being challenge moderately, but I'd expect if it was such a scum tell, as it looks like people are saying it is now, why didn't it draw more attention than it did? It looks more to me like post-hoc reasoning to draw attention away from scum that are drawing attention today.

FTR, is this is post 1491 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8575143&postcount=1491), and it doesn't look like the post you're refering to. Considering that's after day three, I don't even know where to start looking for the post you meant.

[Hal Briston]

The only way to prove I'm scum (which I'm not, just for the record) is to lynch me, or wait until I'm night-killed which I think your suspicions and my horrible record at spotting scum are making less likely. Once my role is known it won't prove anything one way or the other about you. If I'm town it will make you look bad, but can easily be dismissed. If I'm scum it could have been two scum having it out to distance themselves. You weren't in any danger of a lynch yesterday, so this could have been a safe play for scum to hedge their bets. You and I both know that's not the case, but nobody else does.There is some truth to this -- unfortunately, I'm not being very successful in building momentum against you. I'm still pretty damn sure you're scum, but I've already presented all my evidence about this and if no one else buys it, then so be it (I can see how from the outside, this could look like a scumfight).

So, I'll certainly be keeping a close eye on you, but I may wind up changing my vote. The more I think about the events leading up to my post here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8591636&postcount=1672), the more inclined I am to think that Lemur is scum as well. If it becomes necessary to lynch, I'd probably send my vote over there.

[tirial]

I remember being challenge moderately, but I'd expect if it was such a scum tell, as it looks like people are saying it is now, why didn't it draw more attention than it did? It looks more to me like post-hoc reasoning to draw attention away from scum that are drawing attention today.

FTR, is this is post 1491 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8575143&postcount=1491), and it doesn't look like the post you're refering to. Considering that's after day three, I don't even know where to start looking for the post you meant.

:smack:
1429 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8567734&postcount=1429) You quote it in 1458.

And frankly I flagged it, but if no one else was going to follow it up, or even comment, what's the point? I pushed fluiddruid like mad and it still took two days to get the scum hung. I'm not putting that much effort in on a suspicion.

Of course, if anyone wants a serious debate of your potential scum merits/demerits I'm up for it, but no one else who has offered to make a case has (Millet, have I missed your comments?). Unless I've got some validation I'm going back to voting for lemur866 as the guy that looks scummiest to me.

FOS Lemur866
FOS BlasterMaster

I've given my reasons for both - anyone else want to join in?

[Millit the Frail]

:smack:
1429 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8567734&postcount=1429) You quote it in 1458.

And frankly I flagged it, but if no one else was going to follow it up, or even comment, what's the point? I pushed fluiddruid like mad and it still took two days to get the scum hung. I'm not putting that much effort in on a suspicion.

Of course, if anyone wants a serious debate of your potential scum merits/demerits I'm up for it, but no one else who has offered to make a case has (Millet, have I missed your comments?). Unless I've got some validation I'm going back to voting for lemur866 as the guy that looks scummiest to me.

FOS Lemur866
FOS BlasterMaster

I've given my reasons for both - anyone else want to join in?

You didn't miss anything, except maybe my post o' frustration. I can't do the rest of the BM analyses until it's too late for tonight's vote. I have finals tonight. :eek:

In short, though:
BM voted and unvoted both SCL and Idle (Townies? One or both a token scum vote?) during the first day but settled on percy. No big smoking gun there, because there was no real vote swing.
BM made the only vote for CaerieD (who was looking scummy but now seems like she was just confused town) on the second day.
We've been over Day 3 - two vote/unvotes for fluid and one final vote for Projammer
Day 4, early vote for Lightnin, switch to fluid when the pile-on really gets going
Day 5, late day vote for CaerieD to bring her up to 3 votes. Lightnin had 4 at the time and was very soon after lynched.

So I want to ask, since the SCL thing has gotten really quiet: What, again, is the rationale for lynching Lemur? I'm not sure I see it. If someone has already laid it out nice and clean, could I get a link? I apologize for the inconvenience, but if you want my vote on your side (or if you want to take me in another direction entirely, like Hal with nesta, which looks pretty vociferous but hasn't really picked up any attention from anyone else yet--???), give me a summary.

By the way, what time is this day ending?

[Gadarene]

By the way, what time is this day ending?

In approximately eleven hours.

[Gadarene]

Updated Vote Count

3 -- Lemur866 (DiggitCamara, SnakesCatLady, Rachm Qoch)
1 -- nesta (Hal Briston)
1 -- SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts)

I think that's everybody.

[DiggitCamara]

(snip)
So I want to ask, since the SCL thing has gotten really quiet: What, again, is the rationale for lynching Lemur? I'm not sure I see it. If someone has already laid it out nice and clean, could I get a link? I apologize for the inconvenience, but if you want my vote on your side (or if you want to take me in another direction entirely, like Hal with nesta, which looks pretty vociferous but hasn't really picked up any attention from anyone else yet--???), give me a summary.
(snip)
Right now my suspicions center, basically, around the reasons I posted a while back (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8593144&postcount=1683). However, tirial has made a few points that make pretty good sense to me as well, so you might want to look at those.

[Blaster Master]

:smack:
1429 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8567734&postcount=1429) You quote it in 1458.

And frankly I flagged it, but if no one else was going to follow it up, or even comment, what's the point? I pushed fluiddruid like mad and it still took two days to get the scum hung. I'm not putting that much effort in on a suspicion.

Umm... I'm not seeing any mention of it in there. You say:

Blastermaster and CaerieD are close to the top of my scum list. On Day one, they were the final two votes for percypercy (saving Lightnin or Projammer), and on Day 3 their swing to Projammer (a bandwagon started by Lightnin') saved fluiddruid. Note their celebrations last night don't include any mention of the fact they saved fluiddruid at the town's expense the day before.

First, this makes no mention of my reasoning on the breadcrumb, and second, it is basing my scumminess on the idea that the swing for percypercy was caused by scum to save Lightnin'. This is definitively false logic, because Lightnin' is proven town.

You do make a mention that I changed my vote to Projammer, but again you ignore the logic that I used to make that swing. I was hardly the only individual voting for Projammer. Again, if you don't like my logic behind the reason why I changed my vote, then attack my logic; but ignoring it all together and simply saying that I voted for a townie when the other option was scum is nonsensical. That is, as more scum are discovered, I'm sure people will look back and say the same thing about you when another scum is discovered, and had been chosen against in favor of a lynching a townie. The bottom line is, none of us have a good voting record, as we've managed to lynch exactly one scum so far.

I am always careful to provide a clear reasoning trail for my votes so that if I happen to be called out for a bad vote, I can at least show my thought pattern, and that it's not just a "eh, I have a gut feeling" vote. The problem is that you all are ignoring it. So, please tell me why, in the context of day three, why my thought that dnooman was the more probable breadcrumb is unreasonable. Also, tell me why my suspicion of Projammer was so unreasonable that, when I had reasonable doubt of the breadcrumb, that somehow looks fishy?

[Idle Thoughts]

BTW, Idle Thoughts

Are you on the happy pills? Surely this isn't the same analysis posting, probably-a-nightmare-to-defend-against, experienced player that I remember posting earlier in the game!? Nothing personal, but I think I'll go and look at analysis from someone who isn't laughing manically...

(And it seems to be much easier to follow the game when you've stopped caring about your job...)

Gadarene - any chance of a vote count?

Snipped.

Nah, it's just, I voted already and, by this point in the game, most people have established some pretty strong suspicions that will be hard to break. I'm not saying I'm gung-ho and solidified on the ones I'm suspicious of, because really, I'm still suspicious of everyone. But some much more than others and they haven't really done anything or said anything to make me think different.

I still am reading every post in here, though, and taking them in and turning them over, but in the end, so far, of every catching up, I find that nothing all new has ever really come to light or been brought to my attention. So I'm just observing a bit more.

My main suspicion was said (many times..and rather adamantly) and my vote cast. *shrugs* I dunno what else to do, therefore, then just sit back and watch and take in the new posts and thoughs and add here and there if I see the need.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

At this point I'm going to have to back up my FOS with a vote for DiggitCamara. I have yet to change a vote in this game, and this might be the vote that I change, but it is what it is for now.

[tirial]

So, please tell me why, in the context of day three, why my thought that dnooman was the more probable breadcrumb is unreasonable. Also, tell me why my suspicion of Projammer was so unreasonable that, when I had reasonable doubt of the breadcrumb, that somehow looks fishy?

Because you kept neglecting and downplaying the option that you were the breadcrumb. That to me looked suspicious as most people would mention something that gave them a chance of being confirmed town - even to give a rounded debate on the options they'd need to bring it up. Also throughout Day 3 I and others raised the issue that Dnooman and Projammer could not be the breadcrumb as they were never mentioned seperately. You consistantly ignored this in favour of saying one of the two was the breadcrumb, even refusing to answer points I raised about just how determined Kyrie's trail on fluiddruid was.

Taken together it did make me wonder:
1) Did you neglect the option you were the breadcrumb and a confirmed townie because you knew it couldn't be true?
2) Did you focus on dnooman and projammer because it would get fluiddruid, a now-confirmed scum, off?
3) I thought you were an unreliable vote on fluiddruid because you were focusing on these. Following the pattern from Day One, I guessed that if you were anti-town you would switch and CaerieD would follow you. And you did.

And BTW, there's one other person that people keep forgetting was in the firing line on Day One - Omi no kami.

And since I spent the whole of Day 3 telling you how unreasonable your views were, you'll forgive me if I don't repeat the lot.

When it comes right down to it, you got scum off for a night and cost us a roleclaimed townie. If the town forgets that it would be really unwise.

[tirial]

Ok, narrowed down I need to vote for Blastermaster or Lemur866. I think I will go with my original throught.

Vote Lemur866

Its the "that you all conveniently lynched" comment about Lightnin' that swings the balance for me. It just seems odd - and despite my raising it yesterday I don't see Lemur defending it.

[Idle Thoughts]

I'm tempted to change my vote to Lemur866 too, as I think he's scum..but I also don't want to give any slight impression that I'm unsure of my current vote either (or don't have at least 85 percent faith in it).

However, I guess it doesn't matter since I can only vote for one person anyway and he's only a few small notches down on my ladder of suspicion.

Hmm.

[Millit the Frail]

At this point I'm going to have to back up my FOS with a vote for DiggitCamara. I have yet to change a vote in this game, and this might be the vote that I change, but it is what it is for now.

Is this because of your list? Why not nesta? Or hell, me? I'd include you, but I know why you won't vote for yourself. Anyway, I don't necessarily see it, and I'm betting that the scum came later, if any voted for Lightnin' at all. I'm seeing lots of scattered voting today. It didn't bode well yesterday, so I'm a little worried. What do you think about some of the players who have votes already? I'm not encouraging blind bandwagoning, but we're getting down to the wire and it's awfully strange to try to start a bandwagon this late in the day. Around here, people call those "safe votes." What gives?

I'm going to hold off on voting and try to make up my mind at the very end, since I won't be available between 5 and 10.

[Millit the Frail]

OK, not "lots" of scattered voting. Lots of scattered FOS-ing, though.

[Lemur866]

Good grief, is "you all" an unknown speach construction around here?

We had four people who voted for Lightning the other day. You all know who you are. Some of you just made a mistake, but some of you voted for someone you knew to be town. And how did you know he was town? Simple, you know the list of scum already, because you're scum.

As we've seen earlier, "defending yourself" is mostly useless, a better tactic is not to defend yourself but build a case against another player.

So if I'm going to swing today, better I should spend that time building a case against my all-time scum list topper rather than bleating "but I'm innocent, innocent I tell you!"

So I'm gonna vote SnakesCatLady once again.

She's been on my list since the beginning, which only intensified from Fluiddruid's "don't throw me in that briar patch" last post where she fingered SnakesCatLady as scum. Very convenient. I'm not buying the argument that a scum that we'll soon know to be scum would try to bury a townie. She was trying to protect her compatriot.

In a way, getting lynched will be a relief...I haven't been able to pay as much attention to this game as I'd like due to, you know, a job and kids and a wife and such.

[Blaster Master]

Taken together it did make me wonder:
1) Did you neglect the option you were the breadcrumb and a confirmed townie because you knew it couldn't be true?

This is outright untrue, I specifically said: "Here's the point that was missing from the discussiong all day... the TIMING. That is, what strikes me as odd about my "Anti-FOS" from Kyrie is that it's rather contrived and almost 400 posts after the one that was quoted, PLUS it was early in the day; so I can kind of see that being a breadcrumb (though, I'm still not sold on it, as much as I'd like it to be true)."

I went on to compare the ANTI-FOS of me with fluiddruid and pointed out specifically that because of the timing of the ANTI-FOS is makes more sense as a breadcrumb than a LATE vote for fluiddruid. My point was, which you nor anyone else ever answered to, was the timing of the fluiddruid vote as a breadcrumb. What if SCL hadn't voted for fluiddruid, and he had wanted to crumb that? First of all, with that kind of information, why didnt' he try to get it out earlier in the day, and second, how would he have gotten it out if SCL hadn't voted for fluiddruid?

The other point your neglecting is that the ANTI-FOS of me is mentioned once, as is the crumbing of fluiddruid. My guess would be that a breadcrumb should be subtle and repeated to prevent mixing it up with his reasoning that has nothing to do with it. While the ANTI-FOS of me is correct, I didn't think it made any sense to focus on it, because logically, it looked to make less sense as a crumb, with the vote for fluiddruid being the last. I thought I was quite clear about the ordering of the probabilities.

Besides, if I'd gone "hey look the detective ANTI-FOSed me, I MUST be pro-town", that would have looked rather suspicios too, no? Me being honest about what I thought was the likeliness of the breadcrumb gets me suspicion now?

2) Did you focus on dnooman and projammer because it would get fluiddruid, a now-confirmed scum, off?

This is outright silly as well. I focused on dnooman, because our detective focused on dnooman. I looked at every post by Kyrie on the day in question, and all but two of the posts specifically mention dnooman in some capacity or another. This is consistent with my theory that a crumb should be subtle and repeated. Further, while he appears to have stronger evidence against dnooman (as I mentioned, the post he used to vote FOR fluiddruid, he had used the same one against dnooman earlier WITHOUT casting a vote or even an FOS).

3) I thought you were an unreliable vote on fluiddruid because you were focusing on these. Following the pattern from Day One, I guessed that if you were anti-town you would switch and CaerieD would follow you. And you did.

This is blatantly untrue as well. How could you possibly have thought I was "unreliable"? I didn't mention ANY of this information considering that dnooman might have been the breadcrumb until the very post in which I changed my vote. Further

And BTW, there's one other person that people keep forgetting was in the firing line on Day One - Omi no kami.

And since I spent the whole of Day 3 telling you how unreasonable your views were, you'll forgive me if I don't repeat the lot.
Really? As I said, how could you have been challenging how "unreasonable" my views were all day, when I didn't mention my stronger thought of dnooman being the crumb until late in the day?

In post 983 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8529237&postcount=983) you say that Kyrie "just keeps going after fluiddruid", but this is patently untrue. Kyrie mentioned fluiddruid thrice in all of day two (post 772 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8512220&postcount=772), post 813 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8514719&postcount=813), and post 819 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8514862&postcount=819)). Only the second can be considered "going after fluiddruid", and even that is done more clearly in a way to attempt to dispell the heat from Projammer and dnooman. The first was simply referencing her reasoning when talking to dnooman, the last was actually a defense of himself for being a second vote on someone other than one of the front-runners in response to Rachm Qoch's concern that there may be another sudden vote shift that will get a townie lynched (like percypercy on day one); he obviously had to defend it, because he'd spent the day saying that he couldn't possibly vote for either of the front-runners. IOW, he attacked her exactly once, that's it; I don't see how you get the "just keeps going after" part.

Yet, in post 985 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8529337&postcount=985), you specifically focus only on the cases of Kyrie mentioning fluidruid, because you're focusing on her... the same thing you deride me for doing. You also downplay the possibility of me being the breadcrumb... the same thing you deride me for doing. Seriously, could you be any more hypocritical in this post?

FINALLY, in post 1064 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8538503&postcount=1064), your first post AFTER I post my reasoning, you do attack my reasoning, but poorly, essentially coming down to "why didn't he put up a neon sign pointing to dnooman as pro-town... he did that for fluiddruid. And he doesn't separate Projammer and dnooman". As I've said, and I repeat because you haven't responded to this point, is that I expect he knew (and had hopefully learned from M2), that leaving a whole loaf will get him killed, and don't get me wrong, I think that's why he was killed, but I don't think that was the deliberate crumbing. I expect that he'd be consistent and subtle about it. Like, for instance, as I've also mentioned before, that the VERY SAME damning piece of evidence he uses to make a vote for fluiddruid, he uses against dnooman earlier in the day, without as much as an FOS. I think he voted fluiddruid because he was pretty sure she was scum (and he was right), but it absolutely does not look based on information. Similarly, he was constantly conversing with dnooman, and correcting him... I think he specifically doesn't separate out dnooman from Projammer because he doesn't want to be to overt about it... again, subtlety, not neon signs.

When it comes right down to it, you got scum off for a night and cost us a roleclaimed townie. If the town forgets that it would be really unwise.This part I cannot defend, yes I did vote for a pro-town player when scum was up for a vote. But seriously, couldn't I have just voted Projammer earlier in the day, and defended that like the rest of the people that voted for him did? If I were scum, would I have waited so late in the day to change my vote, fully aware that it would draw negative attention to me? Yes, I think scum voted for Projammer that day, but I'm quite certain they would have done so much earlier and much quieter.

[Hal Briston]

Good grief, is "you all" an unknown speach construction around here?Of course it's not. The problem is, it's used to set yourself apart from those you are addressing. I understand your claim -- you're saying you meant it in a "you all who voted to lynch Lightnin'" context. The problem is that it came out in a "you all townies" context. At least to my ears, and those of several others as well, apparently.

For those needing a refresher:The only thing holding the mafia back from recruiting was the existance of that second Do-Gooder, which you all conveniently lynched yesterday. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8587599&postcount=1628)Truth be told, it's what I wrote about here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8591636&postcount=1672) that really gets my scumdar rising. I can't imagine fluiddruid not naming fellow scum in her suspicion list, and if it turns out that you're town, then she set you up in truly brilliant fashion.

I think she's good, but I don't think she's that good.

[SnakesCatLady]

Interesting, Lemur866. I've been on your list since the beginning (by which I assume you mean Day 2, since you didn't vote for me Day 1), but you took time out to help lynch a townie and make a rather vote for fluiddruid. If you felt so strongly about me, why the vote changes?

[Lemur866]

Why Fluiddruid and not you? Because Fluiddruid was obvious scum, once we analyzed the detective's last will and testament. Once we knew for sure Kyrie was the detective, his unblinking flat-out statement that he was sure Fluiddruid was scum means he must have known for sure. The others...projammer and such...he hedged his bets.

A vote against Fluiddruid doesn't mean I don't think you're scum, we have more than one scum in this game.

[Hal Briston]

...and make a rather vote for fluiddruid.We missing a word there?

[SnakesCatLady]

We missing a word there?

:smack:
"...rather late vote...".

I'll blame it on the cats. That way they'll be good for something...

[CaerieD]

Going back over the thread, I'm reminded of a bunch of different things that had struck me as mildly suspicious about Lemur866 at the time, but none of them were big enough to add up to much. The fishing about the Doctor that tirial had pointed out for instance, the repeated references from fluiddruid, the odd vote timing. The claim of having been suspicious of SCL for a long time doesn't seem all that strong either, really. Why not cast a vote for her on Day 3, then? I'd already voted against her at that point, and if more people had expressed their distrust of her at that point a bandwagon might have formed. Instead, Lemur was the third vote for Projammer.

And going back to the very first day, Lemur's attempts to get rid of dnooman simply for being an experienced player look pretty bad, too. dnooman ended up getting lynched on Day 2, but at least the reasoning then was a bit different. Offing someone with insight that can help the town specifically because of that insight is a bad thing.

The only thing holding me back is my suspicion of SCL, really. Because if she's scum--and for so long now I've thought she is--then Lemur is a lot more likely to be town.

But my suspicion of Lemur is stronger than my suspicion of SCL, so vote Lemur866.

[Idle Thoughts]

The only thing holding me back is my suspicion of SCL, really. Because if she's scum--and for so long now I've thought she is--then Lemur is a lot more likely to be town.

But my suspicion of Lemur is stronger than my suspicion of SCL, so vote Lemur866.

Maybe. Or maybe it's like a fluiddruid/SCL thing. Maybe both SCL and Lemur are trying to set up something like that. It's plausible..and given my suspicions of both, it seems (at least to me) to be the case.

[CaerieD]

Maybe. Or maybe it's like a fluiddruid/SCL thing. Maybe both SCL and Lemur are trying to set up something like that. It's plausible..and given my suspicions of both, it seems (at least to me) to be the case.

I'd considered that. If Lemur is scum--and I'm really, really hoping he is--that doesn't get SCL entirely off of my distrust list, though it does start to factor in her favor. There's still the possibility of someone doing what storyteller did in WWII, so we have to stay alert for that.

[Blaster Master]

Well, in my haste to defend myself, it appears I've neglected to vote when I thought I had already. I understand the case built against Lemur; no smoking gun, per se, but a lot of circumstantial evidence. He has been mildly suspicious, but following the "you all" comment, I have watched him carefully, and I tend to agree. OTOH, my suspicion of tirial is growing at an exponential rate; the more I review her posts, the more I'm thinking she is scum, whether she was recruited or not, but she has been subtlely misconstruing and mis-representing posts. My suspicion of CaerieD is largely dispelled at this point, but I'm still very suspicious of SCL. Hence, because it doesn't look like a vote for tirial is being realistic, I'll choose between the two that have a chance of hanging.

Thus, I'll vote Lemur because his "you all" comment is closer to being a smoking gun than anything out of SCL.

[Gadarene]

Updated Vote Count

6 -- Lemur866 (DiggitCamara, SnakesCatLady, Rachm Qoch, tirial, CaerieD, Blaster Master)
2 -- SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts, Lemur866)
1 -- nesta (Hal Briston)
1 -- DiggitCamara (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)

Six hours left.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Is this because of your list? Why not nesta? Or hell, me? I'd include you, but I know why you won't vote for yourself. Anyway, I don't necessarily see it, and I'm betting that the scum came later, if any voted for Lightnin' at all. I'm seeing lots of scattered voting today. It didn't bode well yesterday, so I'm a little worried. What do you think about some of the players who have votes already? I'm not encouraging blind bandwagoning, but we're getting down to the wire and it's awfully strange to try to start a bandwagon this late in the day. Around here, people call those "safe votes." What gives?

I'm going to hold off on voting and try to make up my mind at the very end, since I won't be available between 5 and 10.

I have been looking long and hard at nesta, and SnakesCatLady, but it was the way that Diggit analyzed Day 3 that has my vote sticking to him today. Not only is his reasoning coming up as opposite of mine, but (while admittedly not voting for me) he also calls out suspicion of me at the same time. That is enough for me.

[Idle Thoughts]

Hmmm.

Well, before this day ends and it's too late, here's my regular long post.


First and foremost, I'm still the most suspicious of who I'm voting for....namely SnakesCatLady for reasons that span back to over two days ago.

DiggitCamara I'm also very suspicious of, but not quite as much so.. (again, I've said many reasons why and explained where they all came from and I'm just feeling too lazy to keep resaying them)

Lemur I have for about the last day, yet the pile on him right now kinda makes me unsure. After all, three of the other people I'm suspicious of (SCL, Diggit and Tirial) are voting for him. So if he IS scum, then these people will probably drop low on people's suspicion list (which I fear would be unfortunate). If he's NOT, however, that would only give more likelihood to the fact they are mafia. However, I'm still not counting anything out.

If Lemur does happen to be a good citizen, that wouldn't make me lose suspicion of anyone who I'm already suspicious of, however it WOULD make me suspicious of some who I haven't been suspicious of yet so much. This is because the numbers in my head would be off and (barring recruition) there would still be a possible four mafia members.

So obviously, in the case that Lemur is pro-town, the others who I'm not yet suspicious of, who voted for him (if he's the one to get it this day) will rise up on the list.

I dunno. I just don't feel for him as strong as others. He could be scum, he could not be. I think and feel he IS (and that's why all of those under suspicion the most right now I.E SCL and Diggit, are voting for him so when he turns out to be scum they'll look good)......but I could be wrong.

No matter, though. Lemur = Town or mafia, I will still remain suspicious of all I am currently.

[SnakesCatLady]

You are wrong about one thing, Idle Thoughts. I'm not voting for Lemur866 so I'll look good when he turns out to be scum. I am voting for him because I think he is scum. Isn't that the object of the game? I am completely certain there is nothing to redeem me in your eyes, so at least give me credit for not trying. I voted for fluiddruid because I thought she was scum. I will continue to try to root out scum until you succeed in having me lynched. As in the case of CaerieD, I am also willing to change my mind if I think I am on the wrong track.

[Idle Thoughts]

You are wrong about one thing, Idle Thoughts. I'm not voting for Lemur866 so I'll look good when he turns out to be scum. I am voting for him because I think he is scum. Isn't that the object of the game? I am completely certain there is nothing to redeem me in your eyes, so at least give me credit for not trying.

Oh, don't get me wrong. I do. And I'm not CERTAIN on you or anything. Heck, not even over 90 percent certain. I'd say about 80 or 85. Mostly as sure as I was fluiddruid that last day she was in the game.

It's nothing personal, and I have really read all of your posts and stuff. But just nothing has really convinced me otherwise of anything you've said. Everything just strikes me as something a mafia player WOULD say if under suspicion that much. And I know you don't know what else you CAN say, so that's just it. That's how the game is played. People just vote based on the suspicions they've collected through the game and over the last 3 days, it's lead me to you.

I'm not the only one, I see. I've seen others in here say they're about equally suspicious of you so maybe they're just seeing what I'm seeing and getting the feeling that I am (what with the whole you/fluiddruid fiasco).

I voted for fluiddruid because I thought she was scum. I will continue to try to root out scum until you succeed in having me lynched. As in the case of CaerieD, I am also willing to change my mind if I think I am on the wrong track.

Well,, I say it again. I'm town. As in, really town. And it doesn't matter if you (if you really DO happy to be town too) or other actual townies believe me...the MAFIA knows the truth for sure. So SINCE they KNOW I'm town, why wouldn't they (if you're really town too), all rush and pile on you and kill you off and not only get rid of another townie (you), but make me look so horrible the next day? You have to admit, that would be a good way of playing. They bandwagon you knowing you're/I'm town and have me be the hugest suspected player the next day after three days of going after you gung-ho.

See what I mean? Since they know who is who, you'd think they'd try to get rid of as many people as possible who aren't on their side.

[Hal Briston]

I don't know if I'll be on again before we lead our latest to the gallows, so I'm going to toss this out there just in case I mind up not surviving the night. From my notes:

If Lemur866 turns out to be scum, note that he continually harped on the recruitment having already taken place:
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8587599#post8587599
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8588595#post8588595
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8588687#post8588687
Might this mean it has not taken place yet?

[SnakesCatLady]

Well,, I say it again. I'm town. As in, really town. And it doesn't matter if you (if you really DO happy to be town too) or other actual townies believe me...the MAFIA knows the truth for sure. So SINCE they KNOW I'm town, why wouldn't they (if you're really town too), all rush and pile on you and kill you off and not only get rid of another townie (you), but make me look so horrible the next day? You have to admit, that would be a good way of playing. They bandwagon you knowing you're/I'm town and have me be the hugest suspected player the next day after three days of going after you gung-ho.

See what I mean? Since they know who is who, you'd think they'd try to get rid of as many people as possible who aren't on their side.

Oddly enough, I don't really suspect you of being scum. A couple of things you've said in the last RL day or so have given me the tiniest suspicion that you may have been recruited, but it is very tiny.

Why should the mafia take me out? You are doing a very good job of showing suspicion of me, and there are several others who heavily suspect me. Why waste a night kill on me when the town will be glad to kill one of their own?

What I am really afraid of is that the mafia will night kill YOU, which pretty much guarantees that I will swing the next day.

[Idle Thoughts]

Oddly enough, I don't really suspect you of being scum. A couple of things you've said in the last RL day or so have given me the tiniest suspicion that you may have been recruited, but it is very tiny.

Well, thank you.

Why should the mafia take me out? You are doing a very good job of showing suspicion of me, and there are several others who heavily suspect me. Why waste a night kill on me when the town will be glad to kill one of their own?

Huh? :dubious:
I wasn't talking about a night kill. I said, why wouldn't they all pile on you on THIS day and start a bandwagon (if you're really town--because they know who is and who isn't town) and then when you're dead and it's announced you're town, make ME look horrible the start of the next day (that is, if they don't kill me off at night, which I doubt they'd do if that was their plan)?

Seriously, this would make a lot of sense.

I wasn't talking about killing you at night.

What I am really afraid of is that the mafia will night kill YOU, which pretty much guarantees that I will swing the next day.

Hey, nobody is more surprised then me that I'm not dead yet..which is one of the reasons I think tirial has been recruited since she, also, is still alive (as I explained in many posts on the last day). Seems to me both of us are the only semi-experienced players left and we're also very prolific in this thread and analyzing and such. Makes sense to try to hit one of us on one of the past nights.
But that's another story (one tirial and I and others have already rehashed).

[SnakesCatLady]

I won't be surprised if we don't get a vote from Zuma tonight, but we still need to hear from nesta and Millet the Frail.

The sun is going down...

[Millit the Frail]

It's hard to describe, but I have this strange feeling about the Lemur lynch. I feel like it's been way too easy. If he were Mafia, then this slow buildup of six votes wouldn't have happened, right? Then again, if he IS Mafia, what the hell happened? Were the others too afraid to come out and defend? Six is no overwhelming majority, no mandate at all. Are we on to them? (...nah, wishful thinking.)

I vote SnakesCatLady, because if there's going to be a last-minute vote swing (yeah right), then this is where I want to see it go.

On preview: Yeah, I noticed, SCL. Just got home. And I'm sorry. Usually it doesn't feel so personal, but it almost hurts to make this vote, on the off chance that I'm wrong!

[SnakesCatLady]

On preview: Yeah, I noticed, SCL. Just got home. And I'm sorry. Usually it doesn't feel so personal, but it almost hurts to make this vote, on the off chance that I'm wrong!

I'm not taking it personally. I just hate to think of fluiddruid sitting over there eating nachos and snickering. It's kind of weird, because I don't have much suspicion of you or Idle Thoughts, even though you are both voting for me.
(ans sorry, but you are wrong about me.)

[nesta]

First, apologies for being absent the last couple real-life days. My home system's power supply died over the weekend, and it had all my notes on it. I had to bring up an old system just to be able to post tonight, and its setup is less than ideal. I wanted to chime in about Blaster Master, since I've been growing more suspicious of him. I'm sill suspicious of DiggitCamara. Those can wait until tomorrow, though, once I get my system back up or have a chance to go back through the thread.

I'm largely undecided between Lemur866 and SnakesCatLady. I've had my suspicions about Lemur866, and even put him in my official FOS list a couple of days ago. I took him off my suspicion list yesterday after a quick review of the first couple of days. He FOSed fluiddruid during Day 1, which I didn't think scum would have done, but I re-read that post and now it strikes me that it might have been more of a friendly reminder for fluiddruid to dial it back a little or she would start garnering suspicion, which is what happened. I can see scum talking to each other during Day 1 like that.

SnakesCatLady doesn't look good, despite her voting for fluiddruid on Day 2, 3, and 4. Day 4 scum definitely voted for fluiddruid. On Day 2 SnakesCatLady switched off one of the two townies up for lynch, and her unvoting tied it up. Reading back through that it almost looked like fluiddruid and SnakesCatLady were happy to tie things up between the two townies. She switched to fluiddruid when fluiddruid wasn't in any danger of being lynched. This could have been a safe vote to fall back on if/when one of them was lynched, and it could have easily turned into a plan once they got to talk at night that both of them would continue to go after each other.

It feels to me that we might have two scum up on the block today. I really hope so. It would be such a welcome change from having two townies up there over and over.

I'm going to vote Lemur866. He's felt scummy through the entire game, and SnakesCatLady has only come onto my radar the last couple of days.