Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

[SnakesCatLady]

nesta, I really don't know how to answer your suspicions of me, because I can see why you are thinking that way. All I can say is that on Day 2, I switched votes because I was no longer as suspicious of Projammer as I was of fluiddruid. I don't care that it tied things up - I did not want to vote for someone I didn't think was scum. I have been successful in not contributing to the lynching of townies so far, and I intend to keep voting that way. I don't care how many people are voting for a player, if I don't think that player is scum I will not vote for them.

[Rachm Qoch]

I've got a sinking feeling that my neck might be on the chopping block after tonight, so let me air my latest thoughts while I still have a chance.

Dnooman and Lightnin have one thing in common: their lynchings have largely gone unanalyzed. I don't know if the mafia have cleverly framed the debate or the town has simply ignored the matter, but it seems that the mafia's gotten away with it, despite the earlier claims that Lightnin's death would be illuminating and the later proclaimations that his lynching would not be in vain.

Most likely there's scum somewhere in the Lightnin debacle, either in the vote for him or in the mob that fomented the whole affair early on. The obvious candidate is DiggitCamara, since he was largely responsible for driving the thing. But that's a ballsy play -- but then again we know at least in fluiddruid case they aren't averse to making a ballsy play.

Another one is nesta. She was in the middle of the Lightnin vote, but she's also on my radar for a couple other reasons. Maybe I'm making something out of nothing, but I'm not sure what to make of her attempt to stir up Hal earlier: was she trying to see if he might accidentally slip up and out himiself as mafia, or was she trying to stir him up like Lightnin to get him to attract townie suspicion? Compounding the matter is her late vote for Lemur, when she never really suspected him before.

Another matter: Idle Thoughts has apparently garnered quite a bit of trust lately, not entirely warranted IMO. He's obviously a good analytical player, but I think it's possible that we might be getting lulled into a sense of complacency, mistaking his skill for townieness. I'm not saying he's near the top of my scum list, but he's not on my town list either. There's nothing extremely damning I can point to, but there are a few little things that, from my perspective, don't really add up. How this works vis-a-vis SCL I've still not sure about.

Hal brings up an interesting point with Lemur's insistance that the Mafia have already recruited. I haven't gone back to determine the chronology exactly, but I think he made most of those posts before he was a forerunner for a lynching. Why would he repeatedly make this point? It could be subterfuge, but only if he thought he would be lynched in the near future. On the other hand, if Lemur happens to turn out town, his points definitely carry weight.

I'm getting this in just under the wire, so I'll just say that if Lemur does turn out town, that would put CaerieD in a poor light, and she'll be back up toward the top of my list if I'm still here.

[tirial]

Did the day end on schedule? Are we in night phase yet?
Gadarene any updates?

[Gadarene]

Yup, day's over. (Sorry about that; I worked just late enough last night to crash when I got home without remembering the game.) Let me get to work in forty-five minutes or so and I'll post the results.

[tirial]

Yup, day's over. (Sorry about that; I worked just late enough last night to crash when I got home without remembering the game.) Let me get to work in forty-five minutes or so and I'll post the results.
I know the feeling - thanks. (And here I was hoping we'd got an extra day or something...)

[Gadarene]

Final Vote Count

7 -- Lemur866 (DiggitCamara, SnakesCatLady, Rachm Qoch, tirial, CaerieD, Blaster Master, nesta)
3 -- SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts, Lemur866, Millit the Frail)
1 -- nesta (Hal Briston)
1 -- DiggitCamara (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)

[Gadarene]

As he is led up to the gallows, Lemur866 bats his surprisingly large eyes one more time and says, "I don't know why anyone would want to lynch me. I wouldn't hurt a fly." Then he grins with sudden malice. "Of course, flies aren't lamentable townie puke like all you idiots."

Lemur866, a member of the Mafia, has been lynched.

The night will end at 9:15 a.m. my time on Thursday. Please submit your night instructions before then.

[CaerieD]

Yes! Yes! Yes! Go town!

[Millit the Frail]

YES! Oh, I feel so wrongly concerned now. You all*** are the best.

***Refers, of course to "you all who VOTED for Lemur," not "you all townies." :p

[Blaster Master]

Nice! I think we're onto them now!

YES! Oh, I feel so wrongly concerned now. You all*** are the best.

***Refers, of course to "you all who VOTED for Lemur," not "you all townies." :p
Of course, that's no thanks to "you all" who didn't! :p

[tirial]

Told you!!!

Does Happy Dance!

Anyone for a drink?

[nesta]

Woohoo. Finally my gut is right. I can go back to trusting it just a little bit now.

[Lemur866]

Yes, it was me all along! I did it! And I'm glad I did it! And I would have gotten away with it too, if it hadn't been for you meddling kids and your stupid dog!

[Hal Briston]

Woohoo! This round's on me!

[DiggitCamara]

Yes, it was me all along! I did it! And I'm glad I did it! And I would have gotten away with it too, if it hadn't been for you meddling kids and your stupid dog!
This post has got me thinking. There's a DOG involved? What are his/her powers? What is his/her allegiance?

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Good job. I had my moments of Lemur suspicion, but never enough to vote for him.

[Millit the Frail]

This post has got me thinking. There's a DOG involved? What are his/her powers? What is his/her allegiance?

Oh, great. Just wait until someone role-claims Dog. :dubious:

[SnakesCatLady]

Yippee! Margaritas and catnip all around!

(Idle Thoughts, I thought that Pit thread was about you, too.)

[Blaster Master]

This post has got me thinking. There's a DOG involved? What are his/her powers? What is his/her allegiance?

He's an NPC. He just goes around and does goofy things for pot brownies Scooby Snacks.

[CaerieD]

This post has got me thinking. There's a DOG involved? What are his/her powers? What is his/her allegiance?

I think the Dog is kind of like the Village Idiot role. His goal is to be kidnapped and terrified.

[SnakesCatLady]

I just hope he doesn't chase cats. And that he is housebroken.

[Hal Briston]

Rut Roh!

[Idle Thoughts]

Yippee! Margaritas and catnip all around!

(Idle Thoughts, I thought that Pit thread was about you, too.)

Hahaha. Good to know I'm not alone.

Man, I feel like, from here on, I'm really going to always notice the players that have played in this game now more. Like they'll be a special group of people brought closer together by a game.

Oh and in other news: WOOOHHOOOO. Good to know my gut feeling in this game has only been wrong once (dnooman).

At this rate, they'll get caught.

[Gadarene]

Man, I feel like, from here on, I'm really going to always notice the players that have played in this game now more. Like they'll be a special group of people brought closer together by a game.

And then torn apart by Mafia IV. :D

[SnakesCatLady]

And then torn apart by Mafia IV. :D


*snicker*

I know I'll be signing up again!

[Hal Briston]

Man, I feel like, from here on, I'm really going to always notice the players that have played in this game now more. Like they'll be a special group of people brought closer together by a game.Oh, I hear that...every time I see a player's post in another thread, I get this little vibe of "I want to search your post for scum tells...I have no need to do so outside of the game thread, but I want to".

I have a feeling that will last long after the game ends. :)

[Hal Briston]

And while we're at it...

Hey scum! Speed it up, willya?? There's only, what, three of you left? Make a damn decision already so we can get back to hunting you down!!

:)

[Rachm Qoch]

Ha! I thought so!
Now pour me a tall one and pass me one of those "Scooby Snacks."

[SnakesCatLady]

Bored, bored, bored...

Bartender? Another margarita, please, and my friends here would like some more catnip. What do you mean, they're cut off?

[Hal Briston]

Know what's sad? When you've been watching the thread so closely, the following happens:

"Ooo, look, the thread has been updated! I wonder if night is over? Oh, wait, no...SCL is the latest poster, but the thread is now at 1,778 posts and it was at 1,777 before, so Gadarene hasn't posted."

[tirial]

Know what's sad? When you've been watching the thread so closely, the following happens:

"Ooo, look, the thread has been updated! I wonder if night is over? Oh, wait, no...SCL is the latest poster, but the thread is now at 1,778 posts and it was at 1,777 before, so Gadarene hasn't posted."

Know what's possibly sadder? When you post purely to make sure the thread doesn't fall of the first page so it remains easy to check from work...

Please could whoever's taking the time, please get a move on!

[SnakesCatLady]

Are they still having a wake for Lemur866? I can only keep these cats stoned for so long...

[Hal Briston]

The frustrating thing is they could technically keep this up until tomorrow morning if they chose. But that would be scummy, even for scum!

[SnakesCatLady]

I think they are doing it on purpose, to torture us. How scummy of them.

[Hal Briston]

Say Gadarene...is it too late to propose a rule change? We leave the days the way they are, but shorten the nights to, say, a half hour?

[Gadarene]

Say Gadarene...is it too late to propose a rule change? We leave the days the way they are, but shorten the nights to, say, a half hour?

Sure!

[Hal Briston]

"Sure, we can do that!", or you're sure that it's too late?

Never mind...I think I know the answer. :p

[nesta]

Since it's slow over here right now I think it would be OK to spam for a different game in case anyone following this thread is interested.

chrisk has set up a game of Haggle over in this thread (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=421911), and there are still slots open for more players. The game is due to start up tonight or tomorrow.

[Idle Thoughts]

The suspense is killllllling meeee. (and maybe the mafia are too)

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Seriously. Is this a gathering of Pirates, or Ents? :p

[Hal Briston]

Unfortunately, at this point I'd rather dawn wait until morning (wow, that would sound like a very odd thing to say if you didn't know we were playing a game). Otherwise, the end of the Day Six will be in the middle of the night -- not the best time for getting those final votes in.

Well, Gadarene is offline, so I'm not holding out hope that dawn will come in the next few minutes. Off to bed for me...

[CaerieD]

Seriously. Is this a gathering of Pirates, or Ents? :p

Mafia, actually. Pirates are in the other game. :D

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Mafia, actually. Pirates are in the other game. :D
:smack: Way to ruin a perfectly pathetic attempt at humor...go me.

[Millit the Frail]

My building is on fire!

Well, it was. A little bit ago. I'm OK, as is my husband. No one is hurt. But nothing gets you in the gut quite like walking down your street only to see that the firetrucks are at YOUR house tonight.

(There, that ought to inject some excitement into this thread.)

[CaerieD]

My building is on fire!

Well, it was. A little bit ago. I'm OK, as is my husband. No one is hurt. But nothing gets you in the gut quite like walking down your street only to see that the firetrucks are at YOUR house tonight.

(There, that ought to inject some excitement into this thread.)

Whoa! Thank goodness no one was hurt. How bad was the damage?

[Millit the Frail]

Whoa! Thank goodness no one was hurt. How bad was the damage?

One apartment on the ground floor (three floors directly below me) seems to be completely incinerated. And the firefighters smashed some windows on the second floor and the skylight on the top (5th) floor, so there's some glass lying around. I'm going to wash a bunch of stuff because everything smells smoky. (And because I'm afraid we have bedbugs again, but that's another story.)

Ah, life in New York.

[tirial]

One apartment on the ground floor (three floors directly below me) seems to be completely incinerated. And the firefighters smashed some windows on the second floor and the skylight on the top (5th) floor, so there's some glass lying around. I'm going to wash a bunch of stuff because everything smells smoky. (And because I'm afraid we have bedbugs again, but that's another story.)

Ah, life in New York.

Glad to hear you are ok, and the worst of it was smoke damage, and best of luck with the cleanup.

(Signs you've been playing mafia too long:
No 35. When a poster's block of flats catches fire, your first reaction once you know they are alright is the urge to make a completely tactless and unfunny comment about the scum trying reallife night-kills.

I blame lack of sleep and apologise profusely.)

[Hal Briston]

Oof! Sorry to hear about that, Millet...glad you and yours are safe, however.


(On preview, don't worry tirial...the same joke crossed my mind as well)

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Before things start back up again, I just want to remind everyone that Mrs. WeHaveCookies and I are having our commitment ceremony this weekend. We're flying to Vegas on Friday morning, driving to Zion Nat'l Park in Utah to rendezvous with 16 or so friends and family for a couple of days, then it is back to Vegas for a day or so and home on Tuesday evening.

I will be posting during that time, but probably only one or two good posts per day, or whenever I need to find a few quiet moments by myself.

[Hal Briston]

Color me jealous as hell -- Vegas...well, hell, it's Vegas! But Zion, oh wow, is that place ever breathtaking. Congratulations, and enjoy!

[Gadarene]

Yipes, Millit! Glad to hear you're okay!

[Hal Briston]

<pokes Gadarene with a not-all-that-pointy stick>

What gives? The deadline was over an hour ago. Don't make me break out the very pointy ones!

[Gadarene]

It is the Village Green. It is dawn. It is peaceful.

And suddenly a panicked grue comes tearing through the midst of the townspeople from the direction of the Wharf, screaming bloody murder.

Quite literally.

You find CaerieD pinioned on the pier, bereft of life and bearing a note that reads simply, "The Ghost of Detectives Past."

CaerieD, a citizen, is dead.

The Day will end at 10:30 a.m. my time on Monday. Eleven players left, so six votes will lynch.

[SnakesCatLady]

Damn. G'bye, CaerieD.

[Hal Briston]

Damn...well, I guess that streak couldn't last. Sorry to see you go, CaerieD -- hopefully much will be revealed because of this.

In the meantime, I've had the analysis of Lemur's posts ready for about two days now. Unfortunately, several of the indicators in my analysis were ones that made me suspect...CaerieD! Looks like I've got some editing to do before I post this.

Ok, I think I pulled all the now-irrelevant portions, and properly edited the ones that had a change in relevancy:

But in order to head off the Lightning lynch, we've got to pick someone else, and that means bandwagoning on one of the people who have three votes already, compared to Lightning's five. And honestly, I don't feel any strong difference between Projammer and Omi No Kami and Lightning. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8494445&postcount=486)Hmmm...of the three named, we have two dead townies and Omi/Zuma. I had done an anti-FOS on Zuma on the basis that scum would not flame out the way Omi did. Was I wrong about that? After all, it was fluiddruid's naming of Lemur on her "suspicion list" (and the assumption that one scum would be named on there) that convinced me of Lemur's guilt.

I disagree that the later votes against percypercy are likely to be scum votes. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8503394&postcount=614)If we are to assume that Lemur was spreading lies every chance he got, that would indicate that some of the later votes against percypercy were cast by scum. Here's the breakdown:
Final vote: CaerieD (now confirmed town)
2nd to final: Blaster Master
3rd to final: dnooman (confirmed town)
4th to final: fluiddruid (confirmed scum)

Three of these we know about, so it comes down to whether or not Lemur was actively trying to hide scum in there. We know fluiddruid was scum, but is 4th place close enough to safely call? Was he trying to hide possible Blaster Master scum status? Or was he playing this one straight (a distinct possibility -- the logic presented in that linked post is solid)?

So...unFOS CaerieD and unFOS SnakesCatLady. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8588163&postcount=1635)I have a hard time seeing scum playing something like that as an all-or-nothing -- more likely, we're looking at one townie and one scum, making things look awfully suspicious for SCL. Of course, it didn't last long...the next day, it was "So I'm gonna vote SnakesCatLady once again" (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8596964&postcount=1728).

[DiggitCamara]

... good to hear you're all right, Millit

Sorry to see you go, CaerieD

[CaerieD]

Aw, well, I lasted longer than I did in the last game at least. Good luck, my fellow citizens! I'll be rooting for you over my nachos. GO TOWN!

[DiggitCamara]

Concerning scum's relationships to each other

Now that we have two scum out of the game, we can make interesting analysis of their behavior and patterns. And Lemur866's posts make very interesting reading!

Right off the bat: Apparently we have two "antagonizing" scum. That is, fluiddruid pointed her finger, repeatedly, at Lemur866. In fact, on her "suspicions" she only repeated Omi no Kumi/zuma's name and Lemur866.

Lemur866 seemed largely unconcerned with her attacks on him; in fact, like I pointed out yesterday, he was the first one to try to subtly derail her lynching on day 3 (post 912).

[tirial]

Sorry to loose you CaerieD. Unfortunately that does remove one of my leading scum candidates. I don't think it exonerates Blastermaster or Rachm Qoch however.

Basically, if CaerieD is town, and conveniently voting along with the mafia (which has appeared to have happened twice - Day 1 & 3) why kill an extra vote? And more important why kill someone who was on the town suspicion list?
Either
1) to distract suspicion from the people she's been voting with
2) to put the town attention on the people she was voting for
or if they worked this out
1) to put rachm Qoch and Blastermaster, who she often voted with on the front line
2) to get one of the people she was voting for lynched.

So I suppose it all depends on how complex the scum are. There are other options for selection that would affect this, but they make this even more complex.

Looking at Hal Briston's post BTW, if you look at the final four votes as he laid them out, that makes Blastermaster the third vote out of the four in the second block.

Unfortunately with lemur866 gone I don't currently have a leading suspect, although I am beginning to doubt if the recruit has occurred yet. First because Lemur866 was so insistant it had. Second, because if its saved to the endgame the recruit is a pretty powerful tool. If they have already used it however, then we are facing a fixed number of scum from here on, and each posters' alignment would be fixed, which can only be good for the town. (Why would scum insist that a recruit took place when it didn't? What a good way to make the town lynch other townies.)

If there were 4-6 mafia to start,
two have been killed.
2-4 mafa remain
(+1 possible recruit)
3-5 mafia.

How many posters are left total? Gadarene could we have an updated player count?

Also, since fluiddruid and lemur866 are confirmed scum, can we cross reference their posts and see if that gives us any leads on other mafia? I'll have a look at that later myself.

(This post is brought to you by the blue goblins of sleep deprivation and the angels of caffiene.)

[Millit the Frail]

Thanks everyone. And tirial, you made me laugh. :)

Ouch...CaerieD! I think we will learn a lot from this revelation. I wonder why her?

More substance later, including a spreadsheet update. I'm doing laundry today to get rid of that nice "burning wood" smell. Ahhh.

[SnakesCatLady]

I'm puzzled about the mafia's reasons for taking CaerieD also; there were still plenty of players (including me, sorry) who were suspicious of her. It seems likely she would have been lynched in the next few days.

I am very suspicious of Omi/zuma. I hate to do it to zuma, but the record Omi no Kami left behind isn't a good one. Omi voted and unvoted fluiddruid and Kyrie Eleison on Day 1, and ended the day with no vote. No vote again on Day 2, and voted/unvoted fluiddruid to end Day 3 with no vote. Finally a vote on Day 4 for fluiddruid, and voted for Rachm Qoch on Day 5. Zuma subbed in and didn't vote on Day 6. Lots of dancing around, but only 2 votes in 6 days.

[DiggitCamara]

Concerning voting patterns

Again, I find it interesting to note how much their voting patterns differed. fluiddruid voted in most of the "pile-ups", be it for one of the victims or one of the almost victims.

Lemur866, however, displayed extreme caution. In all but two days (I'm excluding fluiddruid's bandwagon on day 4) he voted for someone who was in no actual danger of being lynched. He participated in Projammer's lynching which can be explained, since he was trying to save fluiddruid and when Lightnin' was lynched he voted for SnakesCatLady who, with his vote, came into range to be lynched.

[DiggitCamara]

Concerning scum's honesty

Surprisingly enough, Lemur866 was an honest scum!

Post 916
That's the thing. The mafia don't want their fingers on a town lynch. And they KNOW who's town. So when there's a bandwagon to lynch a townie, they stay far away and let the town do the dirty work, and then all the townies who lynched a townie get FOS'd.
The only time this doesn't apply is if a mafiosi is a leading candidate. Then it gets trickier, because they don't want fingerprints defending a mafiosi, but they don't want fingerprints lynching a townie either.

Post 919
But that's crap, because "not voting against townies" is not the mark of a townie, it's the mark of a careful mafiosi. Of course, we've got too small a sample size to work with here, but anyone who NEVER votes against townies is suspicious because...only the scum know who the townies are.
Unvoting dnooman without voting for anyone else is a way to get her fingerprints off a town lynch. Calling attention to herself this way is a bad move for a scum, but we can't assume perfect play from anyone.

Post 1200
Remember that the mafia doesn't care which innocent townie gets lynched, as long as it isn't a mafiosi. And even if a mafiosi is going to the noose, they still can't collaborate too hard, because they'll expose themselves.


He pretty much described the strategy he was following.

And, due to that, Hal Briston's idea that there might be scum hidden at the tail end of day one's lynching sounds very plausible to me.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Safe travels to the big nacho plate in the sky, CarieD. :( If a silver-lining can be found, at least you were just vanilla.

There's an option to consider as to why she was selected, but it requires me going down a path that I've spoken out against in the past: that of trying to guess what happened on the no-kill nights. (But I am only going to think on it briefly, because I do think such conversations can suck up a lot of time and energy without being anywhere even close to accurate.)

If none of those no-kills were due to a recruiting attempt, but were all Doctor or NW blocks (this also assumes that the scummy bastages aren't throwing in a "no lynch" just to fsck with our heads) they may have tried to change up their strategy after repeatedly being denied.

Could they have targeted her because she was not a likely candidate for protection? Or could they have gone to random selection? They sure took a long time to come to a decision, though they could very well have been sitting on it just to make us crazy.

[DiggitCamara]

Just a final thought: During the last day I repeatedly asserted that scum had decided early on there was no way they could save fluiddruid. Newsflash: I was wrong! :D

Lemur866, at least, voted very late against her, using a technique he described elsewhere (voting against a teammate if they don't see any other way to save her).

[SnakesCatLady]

Come to the Dark Side, please stop reading my mind. It tickles. I was going over my notes and thinking the exact same thing about the reason CaerieD was taken. It leads me to think a block of some kind has to have taken place on at least one of the no kill nights.

[Idle Thoughts]

R.I.P. CaerieD. That death came out of left field.

Good to see you're okay, Millit



Right off the bat: Apparently we have two "antagonizing" scum. That is, fluiddruid pointed her finger, repeatedly, at Lemur866. In fact, on her "suspicions" she only repeated Omi no Kumi/zuma's name and Lemur866.

Snipped.

And, nearing the end there and especially in her big defense post, SnakesCatLady.

Vote SnakesCatLady

[SnakesCatLady]

R.I.P. CaerieD. That death came out of left field.

Good to see you're okay, Millit



Snipped.

And, nearing the end there and especially in her big defense post, SnakesCatLady.

Vote SnakesCatLady

>color removed<

Idle Thoughts, doesn't the fact that Lemur866 voted with you give you the slightest hint?

[Gadarene]

tirial:
Gadarene could we have an updated player count?

Coming right up.

[Gadarene]

Updated player list:

Alive:

4. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
5. Hal Briston
6. nesta
9. SnakesCatLady
12. tirial
13. Blaster Master
14. Millit the Frail
15. Rachm Qoch
16. DiggitCamara
19. zuma
20. Idle Thoughts

Dead:

8. percypercy -- citizen (lynched, Day One)
2. NAF1138 -- citizen (murdered, Night One)
17. dnooman -- citizen (lynched, Day Two)
18. Kyrie Eleison -- detective (murdered, Night Two)
7. Projammer -- do-gooder (lynched, Day Three)
1. fluiddruid -- mafia (lynched, Day Four)
10. Lightnin' -- do-gooder (lynched, Day Five)
11. Lemur866 -- mafia (lynched, Day Six)
3. CaerieD -- citizen (lynched, Night Six)

Eleven players left; six votes needed to lynch.

[Hal Briston]

Idle Thoughts, doesn't the fact that Lemur866 voted with you give you the slightest hint?Lemur put the second vote on your when he already had four votes on himself. It's not like he was putting you in terrible danger.

That, coupled with what I said at the bottom of Post #1805 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8607779&postcount=1805), make things look very bad for you indeed.

I've wavered back and forth on you in my mind for quite awhile, and I'm getting the feeling that you and nesta are the two remaining scum* (with a recruitment still waiting to happen). Since I'm not yet garnering much support for my suspicions of nesta, it's time to make a switch. My sincere apologies if I'm wrong on this.

vote SnakesCatLady


*Assuming (which I am) that there were four scum to start with.

[Idle Thoughts]

>color removed<

Idle Thoughts, doesn't the fact that Lemur866 voted with you give you the slightest hint?

No.


I've already gone over this with you before. :p If that fact that you voted for fluiddruid didn't help, why would the fact you voted for Lemur help? After all, if you're scum, you know who is who. And isn't it very possible you could be voting for them just to throw the trail off of you? In fact, wouldn't it be even SNEAKIER and MORE CLEVER to do this (as I said before when we were talking about why I was voting for you after you voted for fluiddruid)?

It's entirely plausible and something I wouldn't put past the mafia.

Heck, if you get lynched and you're scum, I wouldn't blame people for voting for me the next day or being suspicious of me by the same token.

[tirial]

P1655 bolding mine"This is a possibility. But basically my analysis of the situation would make me MORE likely to vote for someone who made an unchallenged doctor role-claim, whereas before I'd have to take it under consideration. I can't imagine voting no-kill just to confuse us, I'd sooner believe 3 blocks than 2 blocks and a no-kill. Of course, more likely than either is 2 blocks and a non-doc recruitment, and more likely than that is 2 blocks and a doc recruitment."If you go by the "honest scum" proposal, I think the option I bolded is most likely. Also Lemur866 just told us that if the doctor claimed Lemur866 would vote to lynch him. I think that might be further proof the doctor wasn't recruited (yet?). P1649 can also be read to support this, and suggests that the recruit has not happened yet.

The other person who agreed with him was Idle Thoughts P1644 http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8588498&postcount=1644, but he flags it as a possible mafia strategy to kill powerroles in 1652.

Idle Thoughts your post P1695 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8594009&postcount=1695)against SCL has a flaw:
I think Omi's frustration and actual asking to be taken out all of shows he was town. I can't imagine any mafia member being asked to get taken out. " I was curious, so I looked at mafiascum to find out what the usual reaction is when a player asks to be subbed whenever questioned. As an experienced ref I can now see why you would think that Omi No Kami has to be town, and you can't imagine a mafia member doing this. However, not everyone has that information, and without it Omi's behaviour does look suspicious. The question remains how Gadarene would handle it, so I am trying to factor this out of consideration.
P1811"I'm puzzled about the mafia's reasons for taking CaerieD also; there were still plenty of players (including me, sorry) who were suspicious of her. It seems likely she would have been lynched in the next few days."I am wondering if they thought CaerieD was a Mason. Looking back at the voting patterns, she was part of one of the groups I noticed, and if I can notice it, so can they. I was beginning to think along those lines, which is why I backed off, while stressing that the masons needed to vote pro-town. If she's in a block and not a mafia then the scum might assume she was a mason also. (And for heaven's sake no one confirm or deny this - unless you're scum in which case go right ahead. )

And Gadarene 3. CaerieD -- citizen (lynched, Night Six) - CaerieD was murdered, not lynched.

[SnakesCatLady]

Heck, if you get lynched and you're scum, I wouldn't blame people for voting for me the next day or being suspicious of me by the same token.

If I get lynched - when the other townies find for sure I am one of them - I hope it will cause them to take a long, long look at you. So far, you have cleverly avoided having a final vote in on any scum lynchings, while managing to have a few final votes for now confirmed townies.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Lemur put the second vote on your when he already had four votes on himself. It's not like he was putting you in terrible danger.

That, coupled with what I said at the bottom of Post #1805 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8607779&postcount=1805), make things look very bad for you indeed.

I've wavered back and forth on you in my mind for quite awhile, and I'm getting the feeling that you and nesta are the two remaining scum* (with a recruitment still waiting to happen). Since I'm not yet garnering much support for my suspicions of nesta, it's time to make a switch. My sincere apologies if I'm wrong on this.

vote SnakesCatLady


*Assuming (which I am) that there were four scum to start with.

For what it is worth, I was tempted to vote for nesta with you yester-game-day, but talked myself out of it because I had scummy feelings about you earlier int the game. :p

I'm also still being pulled in Diggit's general direction, but I do find the case against nesta and SnakesCatLady compelling.

[Gadarene]

tirial:
CaerieD was murdered, not lynched.

D'oh! :smack: Scum tell on me. :)

Let's try that again.

[Gadarene]

Corrected updated player list:

Alive:

4. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
5. Hal Briston
6. nesta
9. SnakesCatLady
12. tirial
13. Blaster Master
14. Millit the Frail
15. Rachm Qoch
16. DiggitCamara
19. zuma
20. Idle Thoughts

Dead:

8. percypercy -- citizen (lynched, Day One)
2. NAF1138 -- citizen (murdered, Night One)
17. dnooman -- citizen (lynched, Day Two)
18. Kyrie Eleison -- detective (murdered, Night Two)
7. Projammer -- do-gooder (lynched, Day Three)
1. fluiddruid -- mafia (lynched, Day Four)
10. Lightnin' -- do-gooder (lynched, Day Five)
11. Lemur866 -- mafia (lynched, Day Six)
3. CaerieD -- citizen (murdered, Night Six)

Eleven players left; six votes needed to lynch.

[DiggitCamara]

My theory is SnakesCatLady is being framed. She reacted very strongly to my "pseudo"-accusations on day one, and was (apparently) a possible lightning rod for scum (prod her, she'll viciously defend herself and attract a lot of attention.

She consistently received Lemur866's attention and as a last ditch attempt by fluiddruid. She voted early (and kept her votes) both for fluiddruid and Lemur866.

I get a far stronger scum-vibe from ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies who

1. Was part of the Day 3 voteswing against Projammer
2. Was one of the "late joiners" against fluiddruid
3. Never joined Lemur866's lynching

(stand by for CTTDSWHC's vote against me) :p

[DiggitCamara]

vote ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

[Blaster Master]

I am wondering if they thought CaerieD was a Mason. Looking back at the voting patterns, she was part of one of the groups I noticed, and if I can notice it, so can they. I was beginning to think along those lines, which is why I backed off, while stressing that the masons needed to vote pro-town. If she's in a block and not a mafia then the scum might assume she was a mason also. (And for heaven's sake no one confirm or deny this - unless you're scum in which case go right ahead. )

I too was taken aback by her murder. She was one of the more suspicious people. Thus, they couldn't possibly have wanted her dead "just because she was a townie", there must have been a good reason why they'd kill someone who could have potentially been lynched by the town. I think you hit the most likely option; that they thought she may have been a mason. Otherwise, it was either because she was honed in on one or more scum and they wanted to silence her OR, she was way off and they wanted a distraction for the town. That said, I'm not sure how this plays for SCL, but I'm leaning that it means she's probably pro-town. I'm going to have to do some re-reading...

[tirial]

tirial:


D'oh! :smack: Scum tell on me. :)

Let's try that again.I'm beginning to suspect there is a Godfather in this game after all....

Heck, if you get lynched and you're scum, I wouldn't blame people for voting for me the next day or being suspicious of me by the same token. Actually if she's lynched and she's town I will probably be looking hard at you. Your case against her consists of her voting against scum, and while you may be right and its a double bluff, I can't see any distinct mafia tells. Unless you are expecting her to be very clever scum, despite the fact she hasn't played before (p473).

Fluiddruid had the detective point at her, Lemur866 both slipped, and fished for powerroles. If there were any tells like that I'd happily vote, but I just don't see them.

(Problem is if SCL is scum then I think I can guess another mafia poster, but I can't see any tells, apart from their posts and her reactions that could be coincidence.)

BTW, on post counts, Rachm Qoch has 50 posts in the entire game (the lowest of any poster in the game and below several dead players). Please could you post some more analysis Rachm?

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

My theory is SnakesCatLady is being framed. She reacted very strongly to my "pseudo"-accusations on day one, and was (apparently) a possible lightning rod for scum (prod her, she'll viciously defend herself and attract a lot of attention.

She consistently received Lemur866's attention and as a last ditch attempt by fluiddruid. She voted early (and kept her votes) both for fluiddruid and Lemur866.

I get a far stronger scum-vibe from ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies who

1. Was part of the Day 3 voteswing against Projammer
2. Was one of the "late joiners" against fluiddruid
3. Never joined Lemur866's lynching

(stand by for CTTDSWHC's vote against me) :p

You're suspecting me entirely on my voting record?

[SnakesCatLady]

I'm beginning to suspect Rachm Qoch simply because there is nothing to go on. Very few posts, yet always votes. Voting record is unremarkable. She just seems to be flying under the radar enough to escape notice.

DiggitCamera, thanks for your comments. I have tried to get that across with my comments about fluiddruid laughing at the townies trying to lynch me, but maybe you'll get through where I couldn't. I appreciate your sticking up for me - and you won't be sorry. (Unless you are scum, of course! :) )

[Idle Thoughts]

My theory is SnakesCatLady is being framed. She reacted very strongly to my "pseudo"-accusations on day one, and was (apparently) a possible lightning rod for scum (prod her, she'll viciously defend herself and attract a lot of attention.

She consistently received Lemur866's attention and as a last ditch attempt by fluiddruid. She voted early (and kept her votes) both for fluiddruid and Lemur866.

I get a far stronger scum-vibe from ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies who

1. Was part of the Day 3 voteswing against Projammer
2. Was one of the "late joiners" against fluiddruid
3. Never joined Lemur866's lynching

(stand by for CTTDSWHC's vote against me) :p

My theory is that I think SCL is scum....and you probably are too. :p


But seriously...I've explained reasons in past posts but here's yet another thing that trips me meter (again, just about you both). Both you and SCL also, even though you're both on the top of my prime suspects list, say that you don't suspect me being scum.

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8597613&postcount=1745
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8593144&postcount=1683
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8595608&postcount=1712


Trying to butter me up, you guys? Make me unsure of myself? Lead me into a false sense of security and get all buddy buddy? Haha.

[tirial]

My theory is that I think SCL is scum....and you probably are too.
<snip>

Trying to butter me up, you guys? Make me unsure of myself? Lead me into a false sense of security and get all buddy buddy? Haha.

Will you stop reading my mind? (Its making it really difficult to keep thinking you're scum.)

I would be interested in your opinions on some posts from the first day, page 10.
P468, P473, P481 and P482 by Lemur866, SCL and Diggit drew my attention early,

P486 Lemur866 "But in order to head off the Lightning lynch, we've got to pick someone else, and that means bandwagoning on one of the people who have three votes already, compared to Lightning's five. And honestly, I don't feel any strong difference between Projammer and Omi No Kami and Lightning." Wouldn't this point back at Omi No Kami as the only candidate left to be scum, or would the "honest scum" rule apply, and Lemur866 be telling the truth about seeing no difference?

P489 - also looks odd to me.
P497 - SCL votes for Diggit, but I can't see Diggit being in danger.

Problem is, as I said its easy to build a case against anyone - I just don't see that the evidence against her is greater than the case against anyone else.

[tirial]

Also I can't build links between SCL and diggit to fluiddruid, which I would have thought would have occurred early on when they couldn't discuss. If anyone can, please let me know - I haven't had a thorough look.

SCL's first vote for fluiddruid could have been camoflage (which would argue for the Diggit vote being the same). However she stuck with it through 3 days (2, 3 and 4). As I don't think the mafia knew that Kyrie was the Detective they would not have created a plan to deal with that situation. (Huge assumption, admittedly). And it was mentioned that they can't discuss off-board during the day, so they couldn't discuss strategy and react then.

So if SCL was scum, why wasn't she "persuaded" away from fluiddruid on Day 3, in the same way that CaerieD was? Had she already decided to sacrifice fluiddruid? Its possible - especially if the scum were splitting their vote.

I've got a lot of questions but no answers.

Of course if she's not scum, that brings me back to the complicated option and looking at Idle Thoughts (pushing for SCL lynching) and Omi No kami/zuma (named twice by fluiddruid, once by lemur866, few final votes, won't defend).

[DiggitCamara]

You're suspecting me entirely on my voting record?
... any reason why I wouldn't?

[DiggitCamara]

I have been letting the whole CaerieD kill simmer a bit and... well, I've come up with a theory.

But to complete my theory, I'd like to ask everyone else: could you please list your suspicions about CaerieD? Particularly: when and why did you suspect CaerieD? What post? Who else did you implicate?

I'll start:

1. Until I analyzed Day 3 I didn't particularly suspect CaerieD
2. This (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8593144&postcount=1683) is the post where I voiced my suspicions
3. I implicated Lemur866, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies and on an "undecided" vote I put BlasterMaster and CaerieD

[Idle Thoughts]

Will you stop reading my mind? (Its making it really difficult to keep thinking you're scum.)

And there's the triple crown. As you know, and as I've said many times in here, you are the only other person I'm suspicous about. And you too, just now, said you trust me (in a very round about, kinda, sorta way) :p

However, admitted, you're at the very bottom of the suspected list, so I'm still willing to give you the benifet of the doubt.


I would be interested in your opinions on some posts from the first day, page 10.
P468, P473, P481 and P482 by Lemur866, SCL and Diggit drew my attention early,

P486 Lemur866 "But in order to head off the Lightning lynch, we've got to pick someone else, and that means bandwagoning on one of the people who have three votes already, compared to Lightning's five. And honestly, I don't feel any strong difference between Projammer and Omi No Kami and Lightning." Wouldn't this point back at Omi No Kami as the only candidate left to be scum, or would the "honest scum" rule apply, and Lemur866 be telling the truth about seeing no difference?

It could go either way, I think. In that post, Lemur named a lot of names, but didn't name anyone specifically. Also, look at the results. Both Lightnin' and Projammer were town. and I've always had the strong feeling Omi No Kami was too. I think he was flipping a coin trying to decide between what three townies to vote for, something he couldn't lose at.

However in the case with SCL she was specifically mentioned (as was Lemur earlier) by fluiddruid. Not in a huge group or anything. As small as this may be. I do feel it makes a difference.

So, with those suspicions of mine in place...

P489 - also looks odd to me.
P497 - SCL votes for Diggit, but I can't see Diggit being in danger.

I noticed this too. Along with Diggits and SCLs votes for Lemur in the last round.

So since I was already suspicious of SCL at that point, I think they were trying to set up another couple of throw offs by voting and pointing at each other. I had said this a lot of times even way early in the game..that the mafia must be doing a really good job of fighting amongst themselves and disagreeing because my suspicions were (are still are) about people who were actually suspicious (publically) of each other.
So based on those two posts, It made me also start to grow suspicious of Diggit too. That was one.

Second came from him voting for Omi No Kami just based on him ONK wanting out and figuring it'd be a good reason to vote anyway. So by this time my suspicion was bigger.

And finally, third came from, like I said above, his vote against scum Lemur in the end. Which struck me as another possible throw off (because, look, SCL did it too.)





And.....



so did you. But I disgress on that for now. : p

Problem is, as I said its easy to build a case against anyone - I just don't see that the evidence against her is greater than the case against anyone else.

Well, that's fine. You may really be town and you may have your own suspicions. But I've said it before. If she really is town, why wouldn't the mafia (who knows who really is what) vote for her if she really WAS town and I really AM town? That way it'd bump her off and, like you said earlier, put a LOT of suspicion on me the next day.

Yet the votes against her haven't done this the last three days (when I started mentioning this fact two days ago).

So the case has to be one of the following:

I'm town and she's town (but why haven't the scum done the above yet?)

I'm scum and she's town (then why aren't they helping me get her lynched in the day when they could have started two or three days ago when she already had about three votes against her)

I'm town and she's scum (which actually fits the best, makes the most sense and helps explain/would help explain a lot of things.)

[Hal Briston]

But to complete my theory, I'd like to ask everyone else: could you please list your suspicions about CaerieD? Particularly: when and why did you suspect CaerieD? What post? Who else did you implicate?I don't believe I've mentioned her at all. Perhaps in passing, but she's really been kind of under my radar. At least, she was until Lemur turned up as scum. In my look back through his posts, I found a lot of evidence that pointed to the possibility of CaerieD being scum. Obviously I never posted it, as her murder was a pretty effective way of clearing her name.
Please could you post some more analysis Rachm?I would ask the same of zuma. Obviously, you've had a helluvalotta catching up to do, but have you anything to add yet? Any suspicions? Any obvious scum tells you'd care to accidentally let slip? :)

[Idle Thoughts]

The Day will end at 10:30 a.m. my time on Monday. Eleven players left, so six votes will lynch.

This is another thing that's interesting. And I'm bringing it up now only because there are doubts to whether a recruitment happened yet or not.

Remember, I've hosted this game many times. I've actually hosted more games than I've played in (this is my third game as a player, whereas I've hosted about nine or ten games). And so based on how many people are left in the game AND how many of those remaining people are scum, I always lower the votes needed too. This is because, very obviously, the game must stay mathimatically fair and right.

So because of this, I'll always keep the number of votes needed, in the day, at least two or three numbers higher than how many mafia are left in the game. Usually three if I can cut it.

This makes me believe that, since it's six votes to lynch, there is three members of the mafia left. That would mean recruitment did happen. I could be wrong, though, as, again, I'm just speaking from experience of being a host.

But didn't BlasterMaster do the actual odds and deduce it was about a 99% chance it happened?
Yeah. I'm willing to believe it probably happened.

[DiggitCamara]

Also I can't build links between SCL and diggit to fluiddruid, which I would have thought would have occurred early on when they couldn't discuss. If anyone can, please let me know - I haven't had a thorough look.


Me! Pick me! :D

Link #1:

1. On day 1 I voiced a small suspicion of her (put her on my top 4 which in retrospect is quite awful), to which she answered by changing her vote to me. The day ended with her vote on me. A bit weak, I'll admit, but there you are.

2. fluiddruid: A bit more. On Day 1 she waffled between me and NAF. On Day 3 when your suspicion about Kyrie's "breadcrumb" surfaced I ventured a guess he'd investigated NAF. After that, you convinced me the breadcrumb could plausibly be traced back to fluiddruid and, after a while, I voted against her (and kept my vote up). On the next day I saw 4 votes against her, voiced my argument in favor of lynching Lightnin' and... she was lynched anyway (should have argued harder, mayhaps?) :p

[nesta]

Another one is nesta. She was in the middle of the Lightnin vote, but she's also on my radar for a couple other reasons. Maybe I'm making something out of nothing, but I'm not sure what to make of her attempt to stir up Hal earlier: was she trying to see if he might accidentally slip up and out himiself as mafia, or was she trying to stir him up like Lightnin to get him to attract townie suspicion? Compounding the matter is her late vote for Lemur, when she never really suspected him before.
This came in late enough yesterday that I didn't get a chance to address it, but I might as well do so now.

FTR, I'm a he.

I think I've explained my posting about Hal Briston. I saw a number of people saying he was looking suspicious, so I reviewed his posts looking for signs that he might be scum. I posted what I found. I wasn't really fishing for his response so much when I quoted a bunch of his posts. I was posting it for everyone else's benefit. My purpose in reviewing his posts was to get a read on him, though, and his response has helped do this, and hopefully I've helped the team a little by getting Hal to take a strong stance on something.

About my late Lemur866 vote. Yes, it was a "me too" vote at the end of the day which made no difference in whether he was lynched, but I put my vote on who I thought was most likely scum at that point, and I'm glad I was right for once.

You're wrong about my not suspecting him before, though. He has been hovering high on my suspicion list for most of the game. I even put him in my top four in post 1364 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8559343&postcount=1364).

[DiggitCamara]

(snip)
You're wrong about my not suspecting him before, though. He has been hovering high on my suspicion list for most of the game. I even put him in my top four in post 1364 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8559343&postcount=1364).
Dude... suspecting someone ain't the best defense. fluiddruid spent most of her in-game-life suspecting Lemur866 (and viceversa).

[Gadarene]

Idle:
This makes me believe that, since it's six votes to lynch, there is three members of the mafia left.

Actually, I've just been making so that it takes a majority vote to lynch. :) I don't remember whether I put that in the rules, but it's my understanding that that's the pretty standard way to play. Am I wrong? (I mean, I'm not wrong for this game, because I'm running it, but am I wrong in general?)

[nesta]

I have been letting the whole CaerieD kill simmer a bit and... well, I've come up with a theory.
A theory you say? Honestly I don't think speculating about why she was killed will really help us at this point. Yes, if we knew why she was killed it would be good information, but there are a lot of possibilities, including that they just used random.org. I have a few theories myself: that she was killed because she was a danger to the Mafia, possibly for fingering scum somewhere along the way; that she was killed because she'd fingered townies along the way and the Mafia was hoping we'd use her now town-verified opinions to lynch more townies; that the Mafia saw that she wasn't target #1 like she had been for days past, and decided she might as well die now; that she might have been a mason, and the Mafia is now thinking about end-game and wanting to get rid of verifiable townies; that they haven't recruited the doctor and wanted to go after someone who wasn't likely to be protected. Or a combination of any of these. See what I mean, lot's of reasons why, and I don't think we can be sure enough to use her death for much information. Maybe that's why they killed her.

But to complete my theory, I'd like to ask everyone else: could you please list your suspicions about CaerieD? Particularly: when and why did you suspect CaerieD? What post? Who else did you implicate?
I'll play along a little, though, because you may have a theory I haven't thought of, or a really good reason that narrows the list of possibilities down.

Apologies if I'm not very specific about this. My notes are still sitting on a hard drive that has no power, so I'm going by memory.

I first suspected CaerieD back during Day 1, because I too had noticed that her demeanor had changed a little from Mafia2. But, I was also suspicious of those who were pointing it out. I remember one or more of them said she was being more aggressive or something, but that wasn't exactly what I had noticed about her. They were called out for misrepresenting her current posts, and it was true that they were wrong in their characterization. So, she was on my radar then, but not all that strongly.

I think I recall some weirdness on Day 2, but nothing that really stands out, so I guess she was mostly off my radar at that point.

What really got me was her interaction with fluiddruid on Day 3. I was rather convinced fluiddruid was Mafia on Day 3, and CaerieD seemed to be trying to get fluiddruid off the hook. This is what made me first put CaerieD near the top of my suspicion list. On Day 4 she still felt really scummy to me. Since then she'd been slowly slipping back to the "hell if I know" part of my list.

I don't know if this helps your theory, but that's what I remember about why I suspected her.

[nesta]

Dude... suspecting someone ain't the best defense. fluiddruid spent most of her in-game-life suspecting Lemur866 (and viceversa).
Oh, I agree. But you misrepresented my suspicion history, so I corrected it. I'll stand by my suspicions, whether they seem to implicate me or not, because they were genuine at the time I had them.

[DiggitCamara]

Oh, I agree. But you misrepresented my suspicion history, so I corrected it. I'll stand by my suspicions, whether they seem to implicate me or not, because they were genuine at the time I had them.
(pssst... you're confusing me with tirial... but I could misrepresent your suspicion history if it'll help)

[DiggitCamara]

(snip)
I'll play along a little, though, because you may have a theory I haven't thought of, or a really good reason that narrows the list of possibilities down.
(snip)

Bingo! Thanks for your post.

[nesta]

(pssst... you're confusing me with tirial... but I could misrepresent your suspicion history if it'll help)
Bah, actually I confused you with Rachm Qoch. Sorry about that. That's what I get when I try to post from work with all the interruptions.

Anyway, replace you with he in the post you quoted and I think it should make sense. I was just correcting my suspicion record, for better or worse. It wasn't even the main point I was making in that post.

[Idle Thoughts]

Idle:


Actually, I've just been making so that it takes a majority vote to lynch. :) I don't remember whether I put that in the rules, but it's my understanding that that's the pretty standard way to play. Am I wrong? (I mean, I'm not wrong for this game, because I'm running it, but am I wrong in general?)

Okay, I get you. You mean the majority of all the players left.

Yeah, it can be done that way too, although that might make you run into problems if you're ever running low on town and high on mafia.

For example, say you have nine players left and five are town and four are scum and it's currently Day. This would mean it would take five votes to lynch someone. So it'd be pretty easy for the mafia to pick people off one at a time, especailly if they all just waited until one protown person had a vote against them and then all ganged on on them. Result would be that person is lynched and scum wins (as the sides would be tied and they'd have a free Night kill anyway coming up).

Usually when I host it, I set the bar at either two or three more votes needed as there are scum left, so in the above scenerio (which I've seen happen a lot), it would be six or seven needed to lynch and thus at least two or three pro-town would be at fault if they made a mistake.

*shrugs* But your way works too pretty well.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

... any reason why I wouldn't?

Whatever floats your boat or sinks your sub. Conveniently for you, it isn't a vote justification I can really defend against. My past votes are what they are, for the reasons I stated at the time that I made them, and I can't change them.

Other (current) players who:


did not vote to lynch Lemur: Idle, Millit, Hal
voted to lynch Lightnin' (which you didn't bring up, but I will): DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail, nesta
voted "late" for fluiddruid: Millit the Frail, Hal Briston, Rachm Qoch
voted to lynch Projammer: nesta, Millit the Frail, Rachm Qoch


I'm not sure what your definition of "late" is for the fluiddruid vote, but my list came from the trailing 6 votes of the 11, and as precedent that true town did indeed vote late in that vote, CarieD's vote followed mine. And depending on your definition of "late" in that statement, I'd just like to point out that Millit sure does pop up a lot.

[Rachm Qoch]

Fluiddruid had the detective point at her, Lemur866 both slipped, and fished for powerroles. If there were any tells like that I'd happily vote, but I just don't see them.

<snip>

BTW, on post counts, Rachm Qoch has 50 posts in the entire game (the lowest of any poster in the game and below several dead players). Please could you post some more analysis Rachm?
One of the issues I'm pondering is Lemur's power-role fishing and subsequent repeated insistance that the mafia had probably recruited, and possibly recruited the doctor. One of the things that outed him to me at least was his attempt two or three days back to argue that the watchman/doctor, from the mafia's perspective, are no better recruited than dead. When his argument fell apart, he still refused to conceed the point. Then, later on after the third no-kill night, he did a 180 said that the doctor was possibly recruited, and we could no longer trust a potential doctor role-claim. Hmm. What was he trying to spin?

You have two conflicting principles. First, the odds of three consecutive blocks on successive nights are exceedingly small. It's at least in the single digits, and maybe even less than 1%. This would lead me to conclude that there probably was a recruitment somewhere. On the other hand, as Omi no Kami stated in Post #1407 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8567065&postcount=1407), the recruitment is strategically best used later in the game. A random recruitment at this point in the game is a mistake, from the mafia's perspective. All else being equal, what good is a recruited townie who could possibly just end up getting lynched in the next few days? The question is then how do you reconcile all this?

My best guess is this: There was a recruitment, but it was not a random recruitment. It was a targeted recruitment. That's the only way it would make sense.

Here's what I think most likely happened: The third night, mafia tried to hit someone, and got blocked. The next night, they tried to hit the same person, and got blocked again. At that point, they deduced that the person they targeted was most likely the doctor, and recruited him/her the following night. This seems like it would be a logical move, but as I explained here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8568682&postcount=1440), this is poor logic if you analyze it mathematically. If you try to target the doctor this way, statistically speaking, you're more likely to pick the the wrong person than the right person. So what probably happened is that the mafia thought they had a read on the doctor, recruited him/her, only to discover that they made a mistake. This would explain Lemur's attempts to discredit any potential doctor claim.

Way back after the second no-kill night, DiggitCamara posted this (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8567415&postcount=1420):

Well, I probably shouldn't say this but, anyway, here goes nothing:

I think I know what happened:

1. Scum tried to kill (yesterday) and were blocked
2. Scum failed to kill.
3. During the last day we discussed all possibilities

There it should have ended. However, there was one post (no, I'm not going to point it out yet). And thus the list continues:

4. Scum noticed said post and concluded (probably correctly) that the doctor had unwittingly exposed him/herself
5. Scum took their chance and recruited said poster

Having said that, I can only hope I guessed incorrectly as to the identity of our ex-doctor (and/or that the mafia made the same guess I made and failed)
When he posted this, it absolutely made me cringe. I thought to myself "if you're town, why in the world would you point anything out that could compromise a power role?" I stayed out of it completely, since if he was wrong and the doc was still town, anything that could have been said on the matter could only have helped the mafia. At that point, I didn't think he was mafia -- after all, why would mafia telegraph the fact that they figured out who the doctor was and recruited him the second night? It seemed clear that DiggitCamara had screwed up and was a townie that accidentally might have outed the doctor as a potential mafia target. Regrettably other people participated in the speculation that someone might have outted himself as the doctor. You, tirial, and Idle Thoughts in particular.

But after the third no kill night, I went back and realized that DiggitCamara, and possibly you or Idle Thought were only pretending to think that the doctor had been recruited the second night, when in fact the whole idea was to stimulate conversation to suss out the doctor for a recruitment on the third night. Clever!

I don't know if you (tirial) or Idle Thoughts are townies who unwittingly got drawn into DiggitCamara's attempts to out the doctor, or if you are mafia taking part in the ploy. But you definitely have drawn my attention.

In conjuction with all this is DiggitCamara's hard riding against Lightnin, a big fat FOS on DiggitCamara

[Rachm Qoch]

Come to the Dark Side, please stop reading my mind. It tickles. I was going over my notes and thinking the exact same thing about the reason CaerieD was taken. It leads me to think a block of some kind has to have taken place on at least one of the no kill nights.
How else could you interpret it? Mafia are allowed only one recruitment. So unless they voted two "no-kills" (yeah, right) there must have been at least one block.

[Blaster Master]

Well, that's fine. You may really be town and you may have your own suspicions. But I've said it before. If she really is town, why wouldn't the mafia (who knows who really is what) vote for her if she really WAS town and I really AM town? That way it'd bump her off and, like you said earlier, put a LOT of suspicion on me the next day.

Yet the votes against her haven't done this the last three days (when I started mentioning this fact two days ago).

So the case has to be one of the following:

I'm town and she's town (but why haven't the scum done the above yet?)

I'm scum and she's town (then why aren't they helping me get her lynched in the day when they could have started two or three days ago when she already had about three votes against her)

I'm town and she's scum (which actually fits the best, makes the most sense and helps explain/would help explain a lot of things.)

I'm just not following your logic here AT ALL, and since you keep saying it, I've got to call you on it. Let's go through each case:

Town/Town: Why would the scum want to kill her? She's drawn a fair amount of suspicion and it's not beyond belief that she'll get lynched on her own, in which case you draw an amount of suspicion and likely get lynched soon thereafter. If they kill her, they use a night that they could have used to either further implicate one of you, implicate someone else, or just get someone out of the way. Shouldn't they want the town to do the dirty work for them when possible?

Scum/Town: Why would they help you get her lynched? Wouldn't getting her lynched immediately cast suspicion on you in that case and, you being scum, that's bad, right? I could see them helping you get her lynched in you're both town, but in this scenario, that would only serve to get a scum lynched the next day.

Town/Scum: This I see, or at least saw yesterday. It's looking harder to believe now. I can understand the idea of attacking fellow scum to hide eachother, but they were pretty much relentless on her. It's either because they really want her dead, or they're playing a brilliant game and completely outsmarting all of us.

Scum/Scum: Mainly, I find it most interesting that you ignored this case completely. I think it's possible that you want the town to believe that exactly one of the two of you is scum so that, much like with storyteller in M2, when one of you is lynched, the other is largely exonerated. Interestingly, this tactic seems to have backfired on SCL in this scenario, so I can't imagine that that the scum would keep trying it, which seems to make this a low probability case; OTOH, you may have been recruited at a point in time following your initial suspicion, and so you're simply keeping it up for consistency.

That all said, logically, it seems that the town/town scenario is the most likely for the reasons laid out above. IOW, my suspicion of SCL is greatly lessened at this point; unfortunately, I'm not really sure where else to look except that there DOES seem to be some kind of mafia conspiracy to get her lynched, and if you are town, as my logic seems to put it, who else has gone after her? I'm going to have to look close at DiggitCamara or whoever it was that voted for her if it wasn't him.

[Idle Thoughts]

One of the issues I'm pondering is Lemur's power-role fishing and subsequent repeated insistance that the mafia had probably recruited, and possibly recruited the doctor. One of the things that outed him to me at least was his attempt two or three days back to argue that the watchman/doctor, from the mafia's perspective, are no better recruited than dead. When his argument fell apart, he still refused to conceed the point.

Which is what made me start to look at him funny too.

My best guess is this: There was a recruitment, but it was not a random recruitment. It was a targeted recruitment. That's the only way it would make sense.

Here's what I think most likely happened: The third night, mafia tried to hit someone, and got blocked. The next night, they tried to hit the same person, and got blocked again. At that point, they deduced that the person they targeted was most likely the doctor, and recruited him/her the following night.

Hahaha, I said this exact thing when it happened. : p But it's nice to see someone else thinking it now.


You, tirial, and Idle Thoughts in particular.

Snipped.

One thing I don't understand is why I'm not dead yet. By all rights, I should be... But at the very LEAST, I feel that either I or tirial should be as we have been and became some of the more/most analytical posters and thinkers, plus we're the only two left who have experience in the game.

So it stands to reason (at least in my own head) that wayyyyy back three nights ago, they (they being scum) would have tried to take one of us out. I think, since they could only choose one and I'm still alive right now, that they chose to hit tirial and then, following your part up above that I had also mentioned earlier, recruited him.

Whether or not this is saying she was/is the Doctor, I don't know. Maybe I am saying I think that unconciously. But I don't know. I'm not sure. Maybe it's possible that the Night Watchman was lucky both times on her and so they thought she was the Doc and recruited.

Maybe again that I'm wayyyy off and the Night Watchman was lucky with someone else, twice, that they tried to hit (or they tried to hit the Doc, who is someone else other than tirial). But again, in my mind, it doesn't make sense not to try to get either her or I out way back then...at least one of us.

But after the third no kill night, I went back and realized that DiggitCamara, and possibly you or Idle Thought were only pretending to think that the doctor had been recruited the second night, when in fact the whole idea was to stimulate conversation to suss out the doctor for a recruitment on the third night. Clever!

I don't know if you (tirial) or Idle Thoughts are townies who unwittingly got drawn into DiggitCamara's attempts to out the doctor, or if you are mafia taking part in the ploy. But you definitely have drawn my attention.

Although this may raise your hackles even more, I'm telling you that nothing he said drew me into it then. I had already thought all of this before you brought it up and, combined with my wondering why either I or tirial bit it long ago, connected them.

Again, maybe I'm way off. I just don't feel I am, though.

[SnakesCatLady]

For some reason, I'm starting more and more to think Idle Thoughts has been recruited. Why would the mafia recruit tirial and not him?

[Idle Thoughts]

Town/Town: Why would the scum want to kill her? She's drawn a fair amount of suspicion and it's not beyond belief that she'll get lynched on her own, in which case you draw an amount of suspicion and likely get lynched soon thereafter. If they kill her, they use a night that they could have used to either further implicate one of you, implicate someone else, or just get someone out of the way. Shouldn't they want the town to do the dirty work for them when possible?

Nothing is for sure in this game. She hasn't been lynched yet, so I don't know why they wouldn't just kill her, then, at night and show she's town (if she really is) and then have everyone else, the next day, go for my head.

So since they're not doing that, why then, would they take the chance (again, if she's REALLY town) that she'd get properly lynched? So far that's not happened. I'd think that they'd all vote for her (or at least help it along) and make her death a done deal and then everyone would be on me too.

Neither of those things have been the case though...and to me, that just doesn't make sense. *shrugs* So I don't think it's Town/Town.

And since I KNOW I'm town, I think SHE'S scum.


Scum/Scum: Mainly, I find it most interesting that you ignored this case completely. I think it's possible that you want the town to believe that exactly one of the two of you is scum so that, much like with storyteller in M2, when one of you is lynched, the other is largely exonerated. Interestingly, this tactic seems to have backfired on SCL in this scenario, so I can't imagine that that the scum would keep trying it, which seems to make this a low probability case; OTOH, you may have been recruited at a point in time following your initial suspicion, and so you're simply keeping it up for consistency.

You're right..I did. I guess it was natural for me to forget it since I happen to know I'm town. Although I DID remember the "I'm scum, she's town" option.

That all said, logically, it seems that the town/town scenario is the most likely for the reasons laid out above. IOW, my suspicion of SCL is greatly lessened at this point; unfortunately, I'm not really sure where else to look except that there DOES seem to be some kind of mafia conspiracy to get her lynched, and if you are town, as my logic seems to put it, who else has gone after her? I'm going to have to look close at DiggitCamara or whoever it was that voted for her if it wasn't him.

Well, for the record, I'm about equally suspicious of him too. But I maintain my feelings (and vote) for SCL.

[Idle Thoughts]

For some reason, I'm starting more and more to think Idle Thoughts has been recruited. Why would the mafia recruit tirial and not him?

Why would they recruit me and not tirial?

I already told you what I think about that.

But it doesn't matter anyway since I think you're scum yourself.

[Blaster Master]

But didn't BlasterMaster do the actual odds and deduce it was about a 99% chance it happened?
Yeah. I'm willing to believe it probably happened.
Yes I did do the odds, and IIRC, that's about the number I came up with making certain assumptions, some of which are decidedly untrue (but probably reasonably close to ground truth in practice). Namely, in order to calculate, I was assuming that the doctor protects, NWM locations, and murder targets were completely random. In practice, this probably isn't far from the truth; certainly it's true (or might as well be) for the NWM, but the doctor isn't (or at least hopefully isn't) using random.org to pick his protection target and the scum are probably choosing their targets with some consideration for who they think might be protected.

Of course, the question is, how does this affect the odds? Well, if it's coming from a smaller pool, that makes the odds of a protection succeeding go up, which means my numbers are conservative (and those accurate in saying it's highly probable that the recruitment happened), but if the scum are doing a good job of out guessing the doctor, it could be decidedly lower. That said, I'm inclined to believe the pool is smaller, because why would scum kill a pro-town player who draws a lot of suspicion; similarly, why would the doctor not self-protect in favor of protecting a suspicious person? I also assumed that the mafia wouldn't no-kill. Just like when NAF said when asked a similar question (about mafia night-killing themselves); I can't think of a good stragy for this point of the game where a no-kill is a good idea... I can think of one for VERY late game (mentioned below), but that obviously doesn't apply to now.

That said, how do we factor in fluiddruid and Lemur seeming to insist that the recruitment happened? Because if it's decidedly in their favor for us to believe that, whether it is true or not. Namely, if it did happen, by insisting that it did not happen, it raises suspcion about it such that, late in the game, they an no kill and get everyone suspicious of all of the then confirmed townies and possibly get one of them lynched. If it didn't happen, then if we all believe that it did, then late in the game they can recruit, let it look like a NWM or DOC block, and then suddenly have an impossible to detect scum among our pro-town roles. Thus, I'd be far more :dubious: if one or both of them were insisting that it didn't happen.

That all said, I think my assumptions in my math are reasonable, which means my numbers are reasonable, which means I'm strongly inclined to believe it happened. However, if near the end of the game there's a no-kill, especially if the doc and NWM are gone, but even if one or both of them are still around, it will warrant some discussion as to whether or not the recruit happened during the last three nights, or that night immediately preceeding.

And, to bring it full circle, I'm not even really sure why this is such a major question now. We still definitely have some scum who have always been scum and were not recruited. That is, we need to focus on catching them first, and if we happen to find the recruit along the way, cool beans; otherwise, I'm not sure it's something to fret about, because we don't have any confirmed townies to be concerned about whether or not they switched alliances.

[Blaster Master]

One thing I don't understand is why I'm not dead yet. By all rights, I should be... But at the very LEAST, I feel that either I or tirial should be as we have been and became some of the more/most analytical posters and thinkers, plus we're the only two left who have experience in the game.

So it stands to reason (at least in my own head) that wayyyyy back three nights ago, they (they being scum) would have tried to take one of us out. I think, since they could only choose one and I'm still alive right now, that they chose to hit tirial and then, following your part up above that I had also mentioned earlier, recruited him.

Whether or not this is saying she was/is the Doctor, I don't know. Maybe I am saying I think that unconciously. But I don't know. I'm not sure. Maybe it's possible that the Night Watchman was lucky both times on her and so they thought she was the Doc and recruited.

Maybe again that I'm wayyyy off and the Night Watchman was lucky with someone else, twice, that they tried to hit (or they tried to hit the Doc, who is someone else other than tirial). But again, in my mind, it doesn't make sense not to try to get either her or I out way back then...at least one of us.
Your insistence that one between you and tirial has me a bit thrown for a loop. Obviously, I understand that if you're the two who have provided the most analysis, thus it would seem you'd be the most threatening to the mafia. Hence, one thing that I throw out as a possibility, assuming you're town for a moment, is that maybe they deliberately aren't targetting either of you. That is, you could be dead wrong; knowing that you're experienced, they might think the town will follow your lead and get a couple of pro-town players lynched for them, and then turn on you for leading them astray. OTOH, what if you're right; maybe they're hoping that you'll get discreditted because people will think you've been recruited, and will largely ignore you or even deliberately go against your suggestions. Unfortunately, this question can't be answered without your or SCL's death. IOW, you're wondering why you're alive assuming that your analysis is good; but you're alive, so there must be something else amiss... right?

[Idle Thoughts]

Your insistence that one between you and tirial has me a bit thrown for a loop. Obviously, I understand that if you're the two who have provided the most analysis, thus it would seem you'd be the most threatening to the mafia. Hence, one thing that I throw out as a possibility, assuming you're town for a moment, is that maybe they deliberately aren't targetting either of you. That is, you could be dead wrong; knowing that you're experienced, they might think the town will follow your lead and get a couple of pro-town players lynched for them, and then turn on you for leading them astray. OTOH, what if you're right; maybe they're hoping that you'll get discreditted because people will think you've been recruited, and will largely ignore you or even deliberately go against your suggestions. Unfortunately, this question can't be answered without your or SCL's death. IOW, you're wondering why you're alive assuming that your analysis is good; but you're alive, so there must be something else amiss... right?

Yeah, the bolded part is the only thing that makes sense to me. I mean, maybe it is I'm way off base. But from what I've observed so far and explained, I don't think I am. It's all very reasonable and would explain and make sense of a lot of things so far.

So the only thing that's left (and that I considered before) is what you're saying there.

It would also explain why the three people I'm suspicious of at all are saying they trust me so much. Trying to garner my trust in the Daytimes and keeping as far away from me at Night as possible so people won't go off and vote for SCL right away the next day because everyone would see I'm town?

Again, makes the most sense if you put it that I'm town and she's scum.

I guess time will tell.

[SnakesCatLady]

Idle Thoughts, you are so convinced that one of the two of us is scum; do you realize what is going to happen to you if you succeed in having me lynched? When the truth comes out, you will have pointed your finger right at yourself.

It is looking like my vote this round is going to be for zuma. Omi no Kami's heritage combined with not hearing from zuma is really making me think something is up.

Darn it - I don't like not having any really strong suspicions. I was very sure of my votes for fluiddruid, and reasonably sure of the vote for Lemur866. I just don't have that degree of confidence in voting for anyone right now.

[Blaster Master]

Idle Thoughts, you are so convinced that one of the two of us is scum; do you realize what is going to happen to you if you succeed in having me lynched? When the truth comes out, you will have pointed your finger right at yourself.
Okay, I'm a bit confused here. You seem to be saying on one hand that he's incriminating himself because he's fighting so hard to get you lynched such that when you show up town, he'll get lynched next. On the other, you're not really clearly stating your suspicion, or lack thereof, whether he's going after you hard because he's scum, or because he's just a misguided townie. So my question to you is, which do you think he is? If he is scum, and you're town, then he knows that, and knows that he'd likely incriminate himself after driving the vote for you so hard. So wouldn't it make sense that he'd not do it so intently? However, if he's pro-town, then wouldn't you want to NOT have the finger pointed at him when you turn up town upon your lynch? IOW, based on your logic, that you're pro-town, and he's going to get lynched when you turn up pro-town, wouldn't that mean that he'd be really dumb scum to pursue you so hard?

t is looking like my vote this round is going to be for zuma. Omi no Kami's heritage combined with not hearing from zuma is really making me think something is up.
I'm not thinking it's a scum tell from Zuma at this point, as he does have 1800+ posts to read in order to catch up, but I would definitely like to at least have at least some cursory thoughts so we know where he is in catching up.

Similarly, Rachm Qoch STILL have fewer posts than NAF and dnooman whom have both been dead since Night one and Day two respectively. He does seem to be the type to post less often with more content, but still...

[Millit the Frail]

Yeah, the bolded part is the only thing that makes sense to me. I mean, maybe it is I'm way off base. But from what I've observed so far and explained, I don't think I am. It's all very reasonable and would explain and make sense of a lot of things so far.

So the only thing that's left (and that I considered before) is what you're saying there.

It would also explain why the three people I'm suspicious of at all are saying they trust me so much. Trying to garner my trust in the Daytimes and keeping as far away from me at Night as possible so people won't go off and vote for SCL right away the next day because everyone would see I'm town?

Again, makes the most sense if you put it that I'm town and she's scum.

I guess time will tell.

I'll go ahead and say that the reason that I said I trusted you on the first or second day was because you were suspicious of me and very vocal in general, and I wanted to try to show you that I was on your side. It was kind of a lame move, and now I can see that it looks very sketchy. (But I was scared!!) I've been trying not to tell anyone that I trust him/her explicitly these days. As for the others, I'm still suspicious of SCL, but Diggit was the one who started the lynch bandwagon on Lemur, almost out of nowhere. I'm thinking that any scum votes for Lemur came at the end, which leaves nesta and Blaster.

Cookies, I'm trying to see what it is that you're saying about me, but maybe you're just pointing out that if you're "suspicious," then I should be "suspicious" too. I can only say the same thing as you....I can't change my past votes. I feel particularly dumb about yesterday, but I was really gun-shy after my record of votes for Lightnin' suddenly became a list of townie votes. I had been feeling pretty confident about my record until then. And how exactly is my being the 6th vote out of 12 for fluiddruid a "late" vote? It was very much in the middle.

I'm not sure what to think about trying to deduce scum from "who said what about possible recruitment." It's making my head spin, and I'm sure it would be a really easy subject to "fake town" on. I'm betting that the Mafia haven't been talking about the possibilities of the recruitment much at all, or if they have, it's been very similar to what we townies have said. So I'm not sure I feel all that great about that line of reasoning. Don't you think it would be very easy for Mafia to hedge on that topic and then point fingers at anyone who says anything more definite? I do.

By the way, votes all accounted for. See below.

[SnakesCatLady]

Okay, I'm a bit confused here. You seem to be saying on one hand that he's incriminating himself because he's fighting so hard to get you lynched such that when you show up town, he'll get lynched next. On the other, you're not really clearly stating your suspicion, or lack thereof, whether he's going after you hard because he's scum, or because he's just a misguided townie. So my question to you is, which do you think he is? If he is scum, and you're town, then he knows that, and knows that he'd likely incriminate himself after driving the vote for you so hard. So wouldn't it make sense that he'd not do it so intently? However, if he's pro-town, then wouldn't you want to NOT have the finger pointed at him when you turn up town upon your lynch? IOW, based on your logic, that you're pro-town, and he's going to get lynched when you turn up pro-town, wouldn't that mean that he'd be really dumb scum to pursue you so hard?
*snip*


For quite a while I was sure Idle Thoughts was town; I am no longer so sure of that. If he is town I don't want him to get lynched. I don't have any sure way of knowing if he is town, formerly-town-now-recruited-scum, or scum from the beginning. That is my problem; or rather it will be the problem of the town if he is successful. I'm not sure enough that he is scum to vote for him, but I certainly don't want to be lynched - for one reason, there have been enough townies lynched already.

[Millit the Frail]

Crap, crap, crap. I thought I'd added my signature. I've been updating it at least twice a day, if there are new votes to count.

(By the way, Gadarene, if I die, can I keep this spreadsheet going? As a public service to the town? Or should I try and leave it to a successor?)

[Blaster Master]

For quite a while I was sure Idle Thoughts was town; I am no longer so sure of that. If he is town I don't want him to get lynched. I don't have any sure way of knowing if he is town, formerly-town-now-recruited-scum, or scum from the beginning. That is my problem; or rather it will be the problem of the town if he is successful. I'm not sure enough that he is scum to vote for him, but I certainly don't want to be lynched - for one reason, there have been enough townies lynched already.
That's the vibe I was getting from you. My point is, I don't want it to be a foregone conclusion that he get's lynched if you get lynched and turn up town, because it's entirely possible (and likely, IMO) that he can be pro-town and still want you lynched. IOW, if you are pro-town, you need to take a different approach than what is essentially "I'll show up town, and you'll get lynched next". This is simply a different flavor of the kind of defense post that is expected from scum, to make people reluctant to cast votes, and question if the voters aren't, in fact, scum themselves.

[Rachm Qoch]

About my late Lemur866 vote. Yes, it was a "me too" vote at the end of the day which made no difference in whether he was lynched, but I put my vote on who I thought was most likely scum at that point, and I'm glad I was right for once.

You're wrong about my not suspecting him before, though. He has been hovering high on my suspicion list for most of the game. I even put him in my top four in post 1364 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8559343&postcount=1364).
I stand corrected. You had him on your list, but not recently. Maybe you did think he was suspicious all along.

But that does even more closely paralell Lemur's vote for SCL on Day 5, which was the tipping point (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8580913&postcount=1574) for me deciding to put my vote on him.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Cookies, I'm trying to see what it is that you're saying about me, but maybe you're just pointing out that if you're "suspicious," then I should be "suspicious" too.

That is all I was trying to say. I had been digging through the thread for the votes in my post for almost an hour (on and off, while working :D ) but it still managed to come off rushed as I was trying to dodge out the door at 5pm.

I came home to broken broadband, so in case it decides to go wonky again, I'm going to get my carried-over from yesterday vote for DiggitCamara in nice and early. I'll hopefully be able to read and post a bit during our layover at LAX tomorrow morning too.

[Rachm Qoch]

And, to bring it full circle, I'm not even really sure why this is such a major question now. We still definitely have some scum who have always been scum and were not recruited. That is, we need to focus on catching them first, and if we happen to find the recruit along the way, cool beans; otherwise, I'm not sure it's something to fret about, because we don't have any confirmed townies to be concerned about whether or not they switched alliances.It's a relevant question simply because, if we conclude it didn't happen, then we can use each player's history going back to day one to acertain whether they're pro-town. If we can't confidently conclude that the recruitment didn't happen, then the slate is wiped clean with regards to what you can use to consider a player trustworthy.

[Blaster Master]

It's a relevant question simply because, if we conclude it didn't happen, then we can use each player's history going back to day one to acertain whether they're pro-town. If we can't confidently conclude that the recruitment didn't happen, then the slate is wiped clean with regards to what you can use to consider a player trustworthy.
Right, but if a player has been untrustworthy from the start, and there's at least two or three original scum still out there, I think it's not in our interest to be focusing on finding the recruit. It's clear to me, based on the insistence of the two lynched scum so far, that they want us to focus on the recruitment because we'll get paranoid and start going "hey, he's acting differently than he was two days ago, maybe he was recruited", then we end up lynching a townie we wouldn't have otherwise suspected if we weren't focusing on the recruit instead of the original scum. Now, I'm not saying we should ignore the recruit, who is likely among us, but I don't want to spend time looking for this shift in strategy in a recruit, when we still have at least two or three other players with an entire game worth of scumminess.

Agh... I really don't feel like I'm doing a good job in explaining my point. :(

[tirial]

Right, but if a player has been untrustworthy from the start, and there's at least two or three original scum still out there, I think it's not in our interest to be focusing on finding the recruit. It's clear to me, based on the insistence of the two lynched scum so far, that they want us to focus on the recruitment because we'll get paranoid and start going "hey, he's acting differently than he was two days ago, maybe he was recruited", then we end up lynching a townie we wouldn't have otherwise suspected if we weren't focusing on the recruit instead of the original scum. Now, I'm not saying we should ignore the recruit, who is likely among us, but I don't want to spend time looking for this shift in strategy in a recruit, when we still have at least two or three other players with an entire game worth of scumminess.

Agh... I really don't feel like I'm doing a good job in explaining my point. :(
Oh I get your point. However I think there is at least one poster who is currently climbing straight up my scumdar, both due to going after someone I think may be town, and because of a change in posting styles.


For some reason, I'm starting more and more to think Idle Thoughts has been recruited. Why would the mafia recruit tirial and not him?
I did wonder so I had a close look at Idle Thought's posts. I don't see his scum/town reasoning working out (Why would the mafia get involved in a town/town thing, or help one of their own lynch a townie - it could only expose them?) And the scum/scum option is missing.
So far that's not happened. I'd think that they'd all vote for her (or at least help it along) and make her death a done deal and then everyone would be on me too.This applies equally well as a reason not to get involved if you are scum and she is town - an option you skipped over in the post where you replied to Blastermaster.
This makes me believe that, since it's six votes to lynch, there is three members of the mafia left. That would mean recruitment did happen. I could be wrong, though, as, again, I'm just speaking from experience of being a host."You are assuming 4 members of the mafia originally. Its possible there were more, and that (as on preview we found out) Gadarene doesn't follow that rule. Unless you have information we don't.

Post 1856 - Idle Thoughts. Interesting pronoun change. Also interesting additions of "haha" and taunts to your posts since the last no-kill night. Has anyone else noticed this?

I also note the night before last was the last "no Kill" night and they changed tactics last night. If we go by the "honest scum" version, then either we had 3 blocks or three blocks and a recruit. Which raises the question, why the change? I'm wondering if it means they now have experience on their side.

I'm not trusted. You are. Who would they recruit?

Particularly P1856, where he refers to the recruit as "him" and then me as "she". Sounds like he doesn't think I was the recruit. If as he says its a choice between me and him...

So it stands to reason (at least in my own head) that wayyyyy back three nights ago, they (they being scum) would have tried to take one of us out. I think, since they could only choose one and I'm still alive right now, that they chose to hit tirial and then, following your part up above that I had also mentioned earlier, recruited him.

Whether or not this is saying she was/is the Doctor, I don't know. Maybe I am saying I think that unconciously. But I don't know. I'm not sure. Maybe it's possible that the Night Watchman was lucky both times on her and so they thought she was the Doc and recruited.


Unfortunately, this question can't be answered without your or SCL's death. IOW, you're wondering why you're alive assuming that your analysis is good; but you're alive, so there must be something else amiss... right? I wonder...I strongly suspect if SCL is town that I could see why the mafia would go after her, as she has voted pretty consistantly against them.
To be honest, I am beginning to wonder if this isn't a scum v. scum situation.

Diggit: P1848 (pssst... you're confusing me with tirial... but I could misrepresent your suspicion history if it'll help) - when did I misrepresent nesta's suspicion history? I didn't think I'd commented on him much at all? On preview I note that nesta corrected you - it was Rachm Qoch.

[Rachm Qoch]

Right, but if a player has been untrustworthy from the start, and there's at least two or three original scum still out there, I think it's not in our interest to be focusing on finding the recruit. It's clear to me, based on the insistence of the two lynched scum so far, that they want us to focus on the recruitment because we'll get paranoid and start going "hey, he's acting differently than he was two days ago, maybe he was recruited", then we end up lynching a townie we wouldn't have otherwise suspected if we weren't focusing on the recruit instead of the original scum. Now, I'm not saying we should ignore the recruit, who is likely among us, but I don't want to spend time looking for this shift in strategy in a recruit, when we still have at least two or three other players with an entire game worth of scumminess.

Agh... I really don't feel like I'm doing a good job in explaining my point. :(
Understood. The scum is still scum, and we should never lose sight of that fact. The big problem with having a recruit in the game is that even the most slightly credible suggestion that it has been carried out effectively wipes out the "townie end" of your suspicion list, but leaves the "scummy end" intact. So the hypothetical benefit of confirmed townies is dramatically reduced compared to the previous games. This tips the balance in favor of the mafia more than simply adding an extra name to their roster.

[Blaster Master]

Post 1856 - Idle Thoughts. Interesting pronoun change. Also interesting additions of "haha" and taunts to your posts since the last no-kill night. Has anyone else noticed this?
...
Particularly P1856, where he refers to the recruit as "him" and then me as "she". Sounds like he doesn't think I was the recruit. If as he says its a choice between me and him...
Just because I'm not sure about the quality of this reasoning, I wouldn't put too much weight behind Idle Thoughts using "him" to refer to the recruit. My observation, and especially true for men, is that it's natural to refer to someone of unknown gender as male. OTOH, if he had switched from saying "her" to "him" or vice versa, THEN I think I might be a slip; otherwise, it just seems like an artifact of the language and not a tell. Of course, I could be wrong...

I also note the night before last was the last "no Kill" night and they changed tactics last night. If we go by the "honest scum" version, then either we had 3 blocks or three blocks and a recruit. Which raises the question, why the change? I'm wondering if it means they now have experience on their side.

I'm not trusted. You are. Who would they recruit?
I assume you meant "3 blocks or two blocks and a recruit". Which change in tactics are you refering to... the "honest scum" tactic? Isn't that more or less how Lemur was playing the whole game? I'm not sure so much that it was a change in tactics as it was that we now have a better picture of the tactics the scum are using because we've caught two of them.

I'm also not really seeing the idea that you're decisively less trusted than he is. IIRC, only he and I have expressed distrust in you in the last day or two. The basis of my distrust for you was primarily that you were a likely recruit candidate, the recurit has likely occured, and I noticed a shift in your style. OTOH, this whole thing between him and SCL has me thrown for a loop (as I imagine it does others). In his pursuit of her, he's definitely made some mistakes (as you and I have both pointed out), and I'm simply not sure what to make of them at this point, but I'm not inclined to necessarily assume he is pro-town. IOW, at least from my perspective, it just doesn't seem fair to categorically state that either of you is trusted or not trusted; I'd be hard pressed to describe anyone as "trusted", and only describe SCL as "not trusted" simply because of the amount of suspicion on her from the last few days and that she is the current vote leader (right?).






I wonder...I strongly suspect if SCL is town that I could see why the mafia would go after her, as she has voted pretty consistantly against them.
To be honest, I am beginning to wonder if this isn't a scum v. scum situation.
This was precisely my point in mentioning that he'd interesting neglected the scum vs. scum scenario. If he's fair enough to mention a Townie SCL vs Scum Idle, why not fair enough to mention both being scum? If SCL is scum, and pushed hard for the lynch of fluiddruid; then it wouldn't be beyond reason that Idle Thoughts is employing a similar strategy with her, hoping that either the town says "BAH! They're just a couple of loony town folk." or we eventually do lynch one or the other and say either "Bah! He/she couldn't possibly be scum now." Of course that scenario only confuses the matter more. :confused:

[SnakesCatLady]

All I can promise is that it is not a scum/scum scenario. I just don't know about Idle Thoughts - I hadn't noticed the pronoun shifting refered to above but I had noticed a subtle change in his posting style - almost like he's enjoying trying to get me lynched. I do know that if he had been so vehement about going after another player I would be after him if the player turned out to be town.

Actually, I'm not really worried about Idle Thoughts right now; there is nothing I can say or do to make him change his mind. I need to move on and decide where to place my vote.

I am worried about the players who really aren't participating. Come to the Dark... has popped in to vote for Diggit Camera. Hal Briston, nesta and Rachm Qoch haven't had a lot to say, although they have voted. Omi/zuma has more posts than either nesta or Rachm Qoch, but a very noticable lack of votes. I know zuma just subbed in recently, but we need participation here. Barring some revealing event, my vote is going to go to someone who isn't participating, because I don't see that they are doing the town any good. I don't want to make a mistake and help lynch a townie, but if they aren't participating it makes me feel like they have something to hide.

[DiggitCamara]

Whatever floats your boat or sinks your sub. Conveniently for you, it isn't a vote justification I can really defend against. My past votes are what they are, for the reasons I stated at the time that I made them, and I can't change them.
(snip)

Well, I think that point has been made and made again. Nevertheless: it's precisely that fact that helps us along.

Several of us emphasized the random nature of the first day's voting round because we have nothing to base our votes on. After the first day (or maybe even after the third day) we had voting patterns, votes, vote justifications to analyze and try to ferret out scum.

Your question told me, essentially, to disregard anything that has happened before. Funny enough, it was precisely my analysis of Lemur866's actions on the 3rd day which led to vote for him. It's my analysis of that day that leads me to believe that (at least up to that point) IdleThought was town. It's my analysis of Lemur866 and fluiddruid's patterns plus SnakeCatLady's voting pattern that lead me to believe that SnakesCatLady is town.

You say you told us your reasons to vote the way you voted at the time you voted. I'll have to look at that again, of course, but what struck me about your reasons was that they were not enough to explain your actions (ymmv)

[DiggitCamara]

(snip)


did not vote to lynch Lemur: Idle, Millit, Hal
voted to lynch Lightnin' (which you didn't bring up, but I will): DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail, nesta
voted "late" for fluiddruid: Millit the Frail, Hal Briston, Rachm Qoch
voted to lynch Projammer: nesta, Millit the Frail, Rachm Qoch


(snip)

Your last point does not really correspond with why I included that fact.

Your vote for fluiddruid came when she had the vote lead versus Projammer (6-3). Which is similar to Lemur866's vote which he made when she had the lead (5-2). (btw, nesta voted for fluiddruid)

And your vote for fluiddruid was just after Lemur866's. It was the third to last (from 11 votes against her). Which I call late. (ymmv)

I don't think pointing your finger at someone else is the best defense. However, I may have to take look at Millit later on as well.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

All I can promise is that it is not a scum/scum scenario. I just don't know about Idle Thoughts - I hadn't noticed the pronoun shifting refered to above but I had noticed a subtle change in his posting style - almost like he's enjoying trying to get me lynched. I do know that if he had been so vehement about going after another player I would be after him if the player turned out to be town.

Actually, I'm not really worried about Idle Thoughts right now; there is nothing I can say or do to make him change his mind. I need to move on and decide where to place my vote.

I am worried about the players who really aren't participating. Come to the Dark... has popped in to vote for Diggit Camera. Hal Briston, nesta and Rachm Qoch haven't had a lot to say, although they have voted. Omi/zuma has more posts than either nesta or Rachm Qoch, but a very noticable lack of votes. I know zuma just subbed in recently, but we need participation here. Barring some revealing event, my vote is going to go to someone who isn't participating, because I don't see that they are doing the town any good. I don't want to make a mistake and help lynch a townie, but if they aren't participating it makes me feel like they have something to hide.

So I'm not really participating, and I just "popped in" to vote for Diggit? Seriously? I'm getting married tomorrow, but I'm still sitting here in the middle of the airport with my laptop just to keep tabs on the game(s).

How quickly things go from "reading your mind" to being suspiciously lurking. :p

As I've not survived this far in any game I've played yet, perhaps I'm ignorant of some facets of the game. Is the expectation that the ever-decreasing number of players are supposed to maintain the same volume of posts in the thread as was provided by all of the warm bodies when the game started?

Diggit: So your issues are that my voting history has dead townies in it + I'm too late to the party when I vote to lynch scum + any vote I've made has been made without sufficiently verbose and unique justification, including, I assume, my votes for you.

I can at least comment on the third one. If a player ends up voting for someone who has already been voted for, there's a fine line between being perceived as a bandwagoning sheep, incapable of original thought (which can be seen as scummy) and potentially over-extending into a vague/obscure (though unique) justification for the vote (which can also be seen as scummy.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that there are a finite number of strong justifiable reasons for voting for someone, as opposed to an infinite number. If I'm not the first to vote for someone, the chances are that some (if not all) of my reasons have already been stated. My personal style is to try and minimize the "me too"s and also minimize the over-stretching into the unique. That covers the votes that haven't been for you.

Does anyone besides Diggit want me to further explain my votes for him?

[Millit the Frail]

Is the expectation that the ever-decreasing number of players are supposed to maintain the same volume of posts in the thread as was provided by all of the warm bodies when the game started?

Geez, I hope not! And happy wedding, btw.

I know that the weird dichotomy between Idle and SCL might be a setup. However, I feel like I want to take the bait anyway. I've been suspicious of SCL for a long time, so that may be the best place to put my vote based on my own conscience. The "wait and see, when I turn up town, they'll kill you" line doesn't make her look good. So I want to find out what she is.

If she's really Mafia, that's good, of course. And if she's a townie, we get the consolation prize, of getting to go string up Idle, who is looking more and more shady as this thing goes on. The "Oh, gee, why haven't they killed or recruited me yet?" repeated over and over again....it feels scummy. Recruited-scummy? Perhaps.

I guess I think that the situation is either scum/town or scum/scum. Idle is working way too hard for this for him to be anything but very confident town or reverse-psychology-using Mafia (the kind who kill their own to make themselves look good). Either way, SCL should get the noose. And we shouldn't discount Idle even if we get ourselves a Mafia! I've got a long time to change my mind, and I may if this thing falls apart, but for now I'll vote SnakesCatLady.

[SnakesCatLady]

I'm not trying to make myself look good; I'm trying to help the town avoid a loss. What am I supposed to say? "Lynch a townie and everyone will pat your back and buy you drinks?" Someone who works very hard to lynch a townie is going to get some harsh scrutiny. I fully expected to come under the same scrutiny if I had been wrong about fluiddruid. I have already stated I don't want Idle Thoughts lynched if he is town - but also that I have no way of knowing if he is town or not. I just find it interesting that two of the lowest-posting players decide to follow his lead.

[Millit the Frail]

I'm not trying to make myself look good; I'm trying to help the town avoid a loss. What am I supposed to say? "Lynch a townie and everyone will pat your back and buy you drinks?" Someone who works very hard to lynch a townie is going to get some harsh scrutiny. I fully expected to come under the same scrutiny if I had been wrong about fluiddruid. I have already stated I don't want Idle Thoughts lynched if he is town - but also that I have no way of knowing if he is town or not. I just find it interesting that two of the lowest-posting players decide to follow his lead.

I'm not following his lead necessarily, I've been suspicious of you on my own for a while. I think I've made it clear that I'm not trust-oriented toward him at this time.

Also, there seems to be a lot more antagonism toward "lurkers" today, kind of like there was during the first couple of days. What's up with that? That kind of talk always feels to me like a scapegoat for the Mafia. The only one I think we should really be concerned about is zuma, since we've heard nothing yet (and since Omi was so shady anyway).

"Are you there zuma? It's me, Millit."

[Hal Briston]

I have already stated I don't want Idle Thoughts lynched if he is town - but also that I have no way of knowing if he is town or not. I just find it interesting that two of the lowest-posting players decide to follow his lead.(Assuming you're referring to me as one of those two players) How can I be said to be following his lead? Yes, he voted first and I voted second, but I made it pretty clear that it was the my analysis of Lemur's post history (Post #1805 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8607779&postcount=1805)) that sealed the deal for me. The only question I had at that point was whether I was going to be voting for you or nesta.

(As for the low posting today, yeah, I know...sorry. Half my work group decided to make it a four-day weekend, so I'm stuck picking up the slack. That, and that damn Haggle game)

[Blaster Master]

I'm not following his lead necessarily, I've been suspicious of you on my own for a while. I think I've made it clear that I'm not trust-oriented toward him at this time.

Also, there seems to be a lot more antagonism toward "lurkers" today, kind of like there was during the first couple of days. What's up with that? That kind of talk always feels to me like a scapegoat for the Mafia. The only one I think we should really be concerned about is zuma, since we've heard nothing yet (and since Omi was so shady anyway).

"Are you there zuma? It's me, Millit."

As for lurkers, I don't think that lurking alone is necessarily a scum tell. I want to prod the low posters, not because I'm reading scum, but because I want input from them. If they're pro-town, they're not being very helpful, and if they're scum, not posting is more or less avoiding suspicion by not playing, rather than through good play. I don't want everyone with 150-160 posts like the post leaders, but when a few people are lagging way behind the rest of the group, where the average post count seems to be around 80-90, then when people have around 50-60, I'm gonna wonder.

Oh, and "trust-oriented", that's a new one for me. :p

[SnakesCatLady]

As for lurkers, I don't think that lurking alone is necessarily a scum tell. I want to prod the low posters, not because I'm reading scum, but because I want input from them. If they're pro-town, they're not being very helpful, and if they're scum, not posting is more or less avoiding suspicion by not playing, rather than through good play. I don't want everyone with 150-160 posts like the post leaders, but when a few people are lagging way behind the rest of the group, where the average post count seems to be around 80-90, then when people have around 50-60, I'm gonna wonder.

Oh, and "trust-oriented", that's a new one for me. :p

I agree completely; my suspicion of zuma is mostly based on Omi no Kami's play. Not participating doesn't give me anything to go on - and right now I am looking for anything I can find. With fewer and fewer players we need participation from everyone, not just votes. I understand people have real lives and not everyone can spend as much time on the computer as I do, so please don't think I am trying to be a bitch. I just need information!

[DiggitCamara]

So I'm not really participating, and I just "popped in" to vote for Diggit? Seriously? I'm getting married tomorrow, but I'm still sitting here in the middle of the airport with my laptop just to keep tabs on the game(s).
(snip)
Diggit: So your issues are that my voting history has dead townies in it + I'm too late to the party when I vote to lynch scum + any vote I've made has been made without sufficiently verbose and unique justification, including, I assume, my votes for you.

I can at least comment on the third one. If a player ends up voting for someone who has already been voted for, there's a fine line between being perceived as a bandwagoning sheep, incapable of original thought (which can be seen as scummy) and potentially over-extending into a vague/obscure (though unique) justification for the vote (which can also be seen as scummy.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that there are a finite number of strong justifiable reasons for voting for someone, as opposed to an infinite number. If I'm not the first to vote for someone, the chances are that some (if not all) of my reasons have already been stated. My personal style is to try and minimize the "me too"s and also minimize the over-stretching into the unique. That covers the votes that haven't been for you.
(snip)
[off-game]So... you're getting married? I can't believe I missed that. Congrats! And... that's dedication to the game...[/off-game]

I've got to make two comments to this observation:

1. Strong scum is unlikely to start the movement to lynch a townie. Look at Lemur866's and fluiddruid's examples: Both exhibited what I call "perfect knowledge" syndrom. (I can't believe I'm saying this. I won't be able to use it on strong scum anymore) At some time during a lynch where they were largely uninvolved they said things like "This bandwagon seems wrong to me" (about Lightnin') or "This fight seems to be taken place between two townies" (dnooman versus Projammer) and even hang their reputation on it. What better way than hanging back and voting with the movement that has the most townies in it?
2. Because of the "perfect knowledge" syndrom, they tend to be "me too" voters. After all, that precludes any attacks on them by their townie co-voters.

[Idle Thoughts]

Idle Thoughts, you are so convinced that one of the two of us is scum; do you realize what is going to happen to you if you succeed in having me lynched? When the truth comes out, you will have pointed your finger right at yourself.

It is looking like my vote this round is going to be for zuma. Omi no Kami's heritage combined with not hearing from zuma is really making me think something is up.

Darn it - I don't like not having any really strong suspicions. I was very sure of my votes for fluiddruid, and reasonably sure of the vote for Lemur866. I just don't have that degree of confidence in voting for anyone right now.

Well, I'm willing to take that chance. Mostly because I feel you're mafia.


You are assuming 4 members of the mafia originally. Its possible there were more, and that (as on preview we found out) Gadarene doesn't follow that rule. Unless you have information we don't.

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume there were four members originally, not counting the recruit. I've seen many in this topic make the same assumptions/conclusions.

Post 1856 - Idle Thoughts. Interesting pronoun change. Also interesting additions of "haha" and taunts to your posts since the last no-kill night. Has anyone else noticed this?

You're finding things like "haha"s suspicious? You're really reaching now. And why couldn't be just be that my personality is lighter and keeping it fun, especially in a game where emotions can run high and people can get angry.

I also note the night before last was the last "no Kill" night and they changed tactics last night. If we go by the "honest scum" version, then either we had 3 blocks or three blocks and a recruit. Which raises the question, why the change? I'm wondering if it means they now have experience on their side.

Why are you thinking Lemur would be completely honest about everything?

I'm not trusted. You are. Who would they recruit?

I'm trusted? News to me. The only people I see saying that they trusted me are those I think are scum themselves.

Particularly P1856, where he refers to the recruit as "him" and then me as "she". Sounds like he doesn't think I was the recruit. If as he says its a choice between me and him...

Yeah, this was a slip. But not because I'm scum. I only got caught up in talking about the Doctor and, seeing that word, referred to it as a him there.

But really, it doesn't matter anyway. No matter what I say you'll probably be against me because I think you're mafia too and that would be your goal.

And the scum/scum option is missing.

Snipped.
I already explained this in a post to Blaster Master.


This applies equally well as a reason not to get involved if you are scum and she is town - an option you skipped over in the post where you replied to Blastermaster.

Because that's not the case. I am town. And it doesn't matter if YOU are really town and don't know it or if all the other "for real" pro-towners know it. What matters is, the mafia knows who is who and what I am. So when you realize that and then think of it with me being town and her being scum, it makes sense.


This was precisely my point in mentioning that he'd interesting neglected the scum vs. scum scenario. If he's fair enough to mention a Townie SCL vs Scum Idle, why not fair enough to mention both being scum?

Snipped.

It was a mistake by my own fault. Since I know, for sure, I'm town, the only ones I thought to mention were town/town or town/scum since those are the only cases I know it can BE. Does that actual slip up not show anything to you?
So putting a scum/scum case in there totally slipped my mind.

However, if you look at a few of my posts to SCL you DO see me saying something along the lines of "Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if, if you're found to be scum, that they all think I am too, doing the same thing you were doing with Lemur and fluiddruid.

[SnakesCatLady]

*snipped*
However, if you look at a few of my posts to SCL you DO see me saying something along the lines of "Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if, if you're found to be scum, that they all think I am too, doing the same thing you were doing with Lemur and fluiddruid.

What was I doing with Lemur866 and fluiddruid, other than voting against them? I did the same thing to fluiddruid you are doing to me - except for the fact that she was scum and I am not. I have voted for scum much more than you have by a factor of 2; as a matter of fact, you've never had a vote on scum when they were lynched. You had voted for fluiddruid on Day 4 but unvoted to vote for CaerieD. When Lemur was lynched you were busy voting for me.

You don't have to worry anymore about my trusting you. I honestly (my fault) had been paying more attention to what you said rather than how you voted.

[DiggitCamara]

Funny. I was looking through yesterday's posts and found this doozy (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8596964&postcount=1728) and really, truly don't know what to make of it.

I get the theory that fluiddruid voted for SnakesCatLady to get the heat away from her. That didn't work out very well, though and at the start of yesterday people like BlasterMaster were saying the probable lynch candidates would be her or CaerieD.

And then, when Lemur866 was about to bite the dust, he implicates her very strongly as well. So... the scum used a failed strategy twice?? And against this stubborn lot, who have just once lynched someone who wasn't suspected (Lemur866)?

(to those who are watching: don't do this at home. I really truly don't know whether SnakesCatLady is scum or not. As a townie you should NEVER fully trust ANYONE but yourself. I'm doing this on what is a potentially disastrous whim for myself)

[DiggitCamara]

Let me clarify my last post: I meant to say that Lemur866 hadn't been strongly suspected on days prior to his demise. (unlike every other lynchee)

[Hal Briston]

That's why I didn't include that post in my breakdown of Lemur's posts, DC -- who the hell knows what he was pulling there?

He knew very well that he was going to swing, so that could easily been a double-triple-quaudruple sorta fakeout attempt. Or maybe it was completely honest. Beats me.

[DiggitCamara]

That's why I didn't include that post in my breakdown of Lemur's posts, DC -- who the hell knows what he was pulling there?

He knew very well that he was going to swing, so that could easily been a double-triple-quaudruple sorta fakeout attempt. Or maybe it was completely honest. Beats me.
... and just to confirm another angle on the story...

fluiddruid named 3 people as her suspects, voting for SnakesCatLady and FOS-ing Omi no Kami (now zuma) and Lemur866.

She "trusted"
Leaping to the bottom of the suspicious list would be DiggitCamara and nesta, who had two decisive townie votes.
I am also not inclined to suspect tirial (did vote conclusively in Day Three for me, and has been a big contributor in debate) and Blaster Master (large debate contributor).

If I had written that post I would have named at most 1 scum in each of the posts. Why? Well, look at the reaction of most after we had lynched her. Immediately someone (I don't remember who but I'll look into it) said we SnakesCatLady was of course a suspect because of this.

I think what fluiddruid expected was for us to look into both lists and lynch at least one of the people. By hiding one scum in a pile of 3 or one scum in a pile of 4 or (at most) 2 scum in a pile of 7, chances are one townie will get lynched first. And provide cover for everyone else in that pile, even the scum among them.

What's worst is: We found one scum in the pile fluiddruid carefully constructed. Do you really believe she'd put two scum among her "most suspected"?

[SnakesCatLady]

Since there is still time for me to change my vote:

vote zuma

[tirial]

I don't know. I'm not going to be around much today or tomorrow so I won't be posting. I can see the case against several posters.

SnakesCatLady - with Lemur866's last vote it could be a method to try and get suspicion away from her, or a double bluff- an attempt to get her off the hook. However since Idle Thoughts was already going for her on the grounds of her role against fluiddruid, it could be an attempt to give him more ammo to lynch her.
Idle Thoughts - tempers got heated repeatedly earlier before the last no-kill night, and you weren't posted laughs/taunts. Sorry, that doesn't fly. If SCL is town, then yes I will think you are scum. You switched away from fluiddruid on Day 4, in a manner that I did worry would cause her to get off as she did in Day 3.
Blastermaster - your vote got Projammer lynched instead of fluiddruid.
Omi no Kami/zuma - few final votes, little contribution, and zuma isn't exactly posting much either since the sub. Named by fluiddruid twice.
Rachm Qoch - "me too" posts with CaerieD could be hiding a scum vote behind a townie. Low post count (but recent posts have has more analysis)
Diggit Camara - if SCL is scum then Diggit who tend to support her comes under suspicion.

I could go through the whole list of players like this, but there's no point.

I'm not happy enough with the case against SCL to vote a lynch unless more information comes up - I'm pretty much tied between her and Idle Thoughts.

[Hal Briston]

Ok, I'm outta here. Heading out for the weekend, back late Monday. I'll be on a bit later on today (when things are slow at the in-laws), so if anything critical pops up I'll probably be able to add my $0.02.

Enjoy the weekend, everyone!

[SnakesCatLady]

Tirial, the fact that DiggitCamera is defending me makes me think he is not scum. If he were, he could take the much safer way out by just not saying anything at all to defend me.

And I agree with you about Idle Thoughts; he wasn't joking around when Omi no Kami was cussing me out; it started in the last day or so. I know there has been talk about how it is best for the Mafia to save their recruitment for later in the game, but there is nothing to stop them from using it early - and I think they may have. Also, both of the days we managed to get scum his vote was elsewhere, but he did help lynch dnooman.

[Millit the Frail]

<snip>

I think what fluiddruid expected was for us to look into both lists and lynch at least one of the people. By hiding one scum in a pile of 3 or one scum in a pile of 4 or (at most) 2 scum in a pile of 7, chances are one townie will get lynched first. And provide cover for everyone else in that pile, even the scum among them.

What's worst is: We found one scum in the pile fluiddruid carefully constructed. Do you really believe she'd put two scum among her "most suspected"?

If she suspected that we'd get one of them and then figure that we'd found "the one," then maybe. It would be kind of brilliant to put 3/3 scum on your "most suspected" list and then assume that the first one hit would protect the other two. Especially if two were uncovered....it would be like pulling teeth trying to get the last one lynched, because the entire town would be saying, "but there's no WAY that list was all scum!" That's about the best cover you could give. Would fluid do that? Or is this nothing but an insane extrapolation of the "honest scum" theory?

Also, who do you think is scum among the most "trusted?" I'm not sure whether you were saying that one of them should theoretically be scum, or whether she would have filled that list with townies she wanted to incriminate. They were:
Diggit
nesta
tirial
Blaster

[DiggitCamara]

If she suspected that we'd get one of them and then figure that we'd found "the one," then maybe. It would be kind of brilliant to put 3/3 scum on your "most suspected" list and then assume that the first one hit would protect the other two. Especially if two were uncovered....it would be like pulling teeth trying to get the last one lynched, because the entire town would be saying, "but there's no WAY that list was all scum!" That's about the best cover you could give. Would fluid do that? Or is this nothing but an insane extrapolation of the "honest scum" theory? (snip)


Except that isn't the way it works. As time passes, things happen in this thread and townies* forget what happened on previous days. So, more likely than not by the time SnakesCatLady gets lynched (and let's suppose for an instant she's a townie), everyone will even have forgotten why she got lynched in the first place. And let me say this again: the main suspicion against her is a "final defense" post of a known scum who knew she was going to get lynched.

*btw: I'm generalizing. I'm not saying "you townies".

And of course, scum being scum, what I posit fluiddruid were hoping would happen is this:

1. Townies would get bogged down discussing SnakesCatLady culpability
2. We would lynch her
3. When (and if) Lemur866 got under suspicion he could point to fluiddruid's post and point out that we already went down that road before and only got a townie for our trouble

Do you really think it's realistic fluiddruid doesn't know about reverse psychology? Don't you think she knows the first thought anyone would have when she voted against a townie and said "She's certainly scum" everyone would think it was a double blind?

And if you're right and SnakesCatLady is scum then I vote we go for the perfect trifecta and vote immediately for zuma on the next day.

Again: there are less scum than townies even now. To them a gamble of 2-1 might make sense. A gamble of 0-3 would be dense.

[DiggitCamara]

(snip)
Also, who do you think is scum among the most "trusted?" I'm not sure whether you were saying that one of them should theoretically be scum, or whether she would have filled that list with townies she wanted to incriminate. They were:
Diggit
nesta
tirial
Blaster
I put him on my list yesterday. And, if I recall correctly, you voiced some suspicion against him as well: BlasterMaster

[DiggitCamara]

I put him on my list yesterday. And, if I recall correctly, you voiced some suspicion against him as well: BlasterMaster
Of course, your idea that there is one scum in her trusted and one in her un-trusted might be completely wrong. In fact, if I were to write a list like that, more likely than not, I'd either hide one or none. That way the odds, once townies start analyzing the list, are decidedly in favor of scum.

And I'll repeat again: fluiddruid's farewell post WAS NOT WRITTEN TO HELP US IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM. IT WAS WRITTEN TO FAVOR SCUM. AND SHE PUT HER CONSIDERABLE INTELLIGENCE INTO SHAPING IT IN A WAY THAT IT WOULD DO NOTHING BUT CONFUSE TOWN.

[Millit the Frail]

I put him on my list yesterday. And, if I recall correctly, you voiced some suspicion against him as well: BlasterMaster

That's what I've been thinking. I wonder what would happen if my suspicions picked up any steam, but it looks like we're not going to find out today. I want to take a step back and look at the general pattern on the days that have passed so far. Only two of the days led to scum lynchings. Many led to townie lynchings, many had vote switches. Maybe there's something we can learn there.

Yesterday was really interesting. It felt like there was hardly any opposition toward lynching Lemur, except mine (which was plain old stupidity). So it appears that when we're on to a scum and there are no other targets to switch to, the Mafia are just going to sit back and let him hang, maybe add a few of the last votes.

The problem with recognizing that pattern is that it's frighteningly similar to what the Mafia would do if our only good prospect was a townie. Maybe we need two good lynch targets in the running, and we can observe who's pulling the strings again and again and again We can match up our suspects with their behavior around the lynchings of fluiddruid and Lemur and maybe triangulate to scum. I kind of want someone other than SCL to garner some votes so we can see just where everyone stands on her.

Sorry if it doesn't look like I'm saying much of substance....It's a holiday weekend, I have nothing to do, and the activity in here is surprisingly low, so forgive me if I'm talking to myself.

[SnakesCatLady]

Even with a vote against him, zuma doesn't seem to have anything to say. I'm sure he could have caught up with the thread by now...

[Idle Thoughts]

Idle Thoughts - tempers got heated repeatedly earlier before the last no-kill night, and you weren't posted laughs/taunts. Sorry, that doesn't fly. If SCL is town, then yes I will think you are scum. You switched away from fluiddruid on Day 4, in a manner that I did worry would cause her to get off as she did in Day 3.


Pardon me, but TAUNTS? I have not taunted anyone in this game. All of my light posts in here have been just that. Light posts to keep the mood light. As for Omi telling SCL to procreate in a rather rude fashion, I didn't want to step into there because that was a bit more major infraction that I actually expected a mod to step in for (as it went against the rules of the forum).

But sheesh. Again, suspecting me for posting smiles and having a few jokes and being able to laugh? Either you take this game too seriously or you're looking for any reason to have to explain why you're about to vote for me or an excuse to vote for me in the future. Seriously. Get better sensible reasons. If you want to vote for me because, like you pointed out, I actually voted for someone other then fluiddruid, fine. At least that's something that looks weird. But come on. You strike me as being a bit more sensible then reading scum tells in posts where someones showing humor or semi-humor. If you really want to vote for me for that reason, still feel free, but not only will that make me think all the more that you're now having to go against your original team after being recruited, but it will look even worse for YOU if I get the rope and everyone finds out I'm town.

So if you TRULY, REALLY are still town, why go on a limb as flimsy as the one you're going on or trying to build? Why not vote against SCL and see if she's town? And if she is, feel free (not only you but everyone) to go against me the next day (IF I'm even still alive, that is). Heck, even if she's scum, feel free to go against me. Because see, I have something on my side that none of you personally know. Mainly that I'm SURE I'M TOWN. So no matter what happens, if I get lynched or murdered, people who are killing me by this point (or starting to call for my head) will have the tables turned on them most likely, when it's found I was telling the truth. And hopefully the real pro-towners will go back over my posts and use them to help them out. I've certainly been pretty adamant in my thoughts and suspicions.

[Idle Thoughts]

Oh, and Diggit, you're so full of doody. : p Hahah, you make me laugh actually. I see what you're doing. You're in Mafia IV too and you must have read and took notes on what Gadarene said about how townies usually act, cause I see you doing it full force now. Heh. Funny how you only started to seemingly have those attributes after yesterday.

Hahahaha, however I won't really count or hold that against you as it's based on things outside of this game. It's just something that struck me as funny (but also odd since you haven't really been doing those things before yesterday). It's also something only a few others here will get as not everyone in this game will know about that game (or even where it is, possibly although the link was posted in the Malacandra thread).

Either way, it doesn't matter. If that is what you're doing or isn't, I still have too strong of suspicions on you for all those other reasons.

[SnakesCatLady]

Ya know, Idle Thoughts, if we've gonna vote for someone "to see if they are town" as you urged above, you would be a better target than I am. At least I have voted against scum, which is something you can't say for yourself.

I don't recommend that tactic myself. If reminds me of "dunking" witches; if they drown they're innocent. However, they're not going to be around to enjoy their vindication.

[Idle Thoughts]

Ya know, Idle Thoughts, if we've gonna vote for someone "to see if they are town" as you urged above, you would be a better target than I am. At least I have voted against scum, which is something you can't say for yourself.

I don't recommend that tactic myself. If reminds me of "dunking" witches; if they drown they're innocent. However, they're not going to be around to enjoy their vindication.

Maybe I haven't voted for them but you're forgetting some things...


Mainly (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8596814&postcount=1725) these (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8581025&postcount=1585) five (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8538735&postcount=1075) posts (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8544421&postcount=1130) here. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8547022&postcount=1192)

Take a good look. I have more if you wish. So far in this game my feelings have been all right (well, almost). The only case it wasn't was in dnooman's case.

So yeah, maybe I haven't voted for the scum yet when the time actually COMES..but I've already made it clear in lots of other posts that I felt that they WERE scum and getting their just desserts with all the votes. As you see (by those posts), I've said that, in every case, BEFORE the lynchings occured. So with 4 right and 1 wrong, in the whole game, I'd say my feelings record was pretty good so far.

I feel that you're scum. Pretty strongly too based on all the reason and explanations I've given.

[tirial]

So yeah, maybe I haven't voted for the scum yet when the time actually COMES..but I've already made it clear in lots of other posts that I felt that they WERE scum and getting their just desserts with all the votes. As you see (by those posts), I've said that, in every case, BEFORE the lynchings occured. So with 4 right and 1 wrong, in the whole game, I'd say my feelings record was pretty good so far.And FOSing scum without voting for them is a pretty good way to cover your back without actually putting any of the scum at risk. Voting for them when the time comes is when it actually matters.

As you well know, my case against you is not based on a few "Hahas" and yes, taunts ("tricky tricky" is a taunt, BTW, especially when aimed at the defense of a poster you are trying to get lynched).

Its based on a number of slips, a change in voting patterns, voting away from fluiddruid in a manner that could have got her off the hook (exactly the way Blastermaster did the day before). Consistantly refering to past game experience well before it was necessary in a fashion that could only make you a target, but not being nightkilled.

Its also based on your building a case against someone based purely on the defense post of a scum, and the fact that the poster voted against scum pretty consistantly (more than you have). When fluiddruid was on the hook you voted CaerieD, now known to be town. When Lemur866 was on the hook you voted SCL. The night after I suspect you were recruited the mafia suddenly get a successful kill - either the town stopped getting lucky, or they changed tactics.

And if SCL is town, the mafia have a very good reason to try to discredit her and get her lynched - because she's been right too often.

Vote Idle Thoughts

[SnakesCatLady]

Well, it looks like there is a good chance I'm going to get lynched. Since I think my neck is more valuable with a cat draped around it than a rope, and since my vote for zuma was mainly intended to get him to post, I'm going to unvote zuma and vote Idle Thoughts . I have already mentioned several reasons, but tirial in the post above says something I hadn't thought of...why hasn't he been nightkilled? He has repeatedly bragged on his experience. CaerieD still had suspicion against her, so the town may very well have lynched her. Why nightkill her?

And before Idle Thoughts comes in to say this is a revenge vote, or a "trying to save my neck" vote, I want to make it clear I had already gone from trusting him to suspecting him days before I changed my vote. Yes, I am trying to save my neck. If you compare voting records I think my neck is more valuable than his.

[DiggitCamara]

Oh, and Diggit, you're so full of doody. : p Hahah, you make me laugh actually. I see what you're doing. You're in Mafia IV too and you must have read and took notes on what Gadarene said about how townies usually act, cause I see you doing it full force now. Heh. Funny how you only started to seemingly have those attributes after yesterday.

(snip)
Confirmation bias (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias) at work.

[DiggitCamara]

Oh, and Diggit, you're so full of doody. : p Hahah, you make me laugh actually. I see what you're doing. You're in Mafia IV too and you must have read and took notes on what Gadarene said about how townies usually act, cause I see you doing it full force now. Heh. Funny how you only started to seemingly have those attributes after yesterday.
(snip)

And while I'm at it: Could you please mention what two points you meant? I read that post, as you well know, but didn't actually think to apply them to this game since they seem to be points that may be obvious to an observer but pretty hard to spot if you're in the game yourself.

My guess is you meant the points where he said that true townies usually write a post and rectify it shortly afterwards, you know, like I did way back here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8546505&postcount=1161) . (or maybe you meant the point that true townies are not really sure of themselves and qualify their statements and so on. Like I did in that same post)

[Idle Thoughts]

And FOSing scum without voting for them is a pretty good way to cover your back without actually putting any of the scum at risk. Voting for them when the time comes is when it actually matters.

And how, exactly, haven't I been doing that?

Obviously I can only vote for ONE person at a time. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8596814&postcount=1725)

So what are you on about? I've been voting for all the people I think are scum at the time. In that post, I say I'm keeping my vote for SCL (who I feel (very strongly) is scum and that I feel Lemur is scum as well. So which is it Tirial? I only have one vote, you know. So had I voted for Lemur and, if SCL was the one that got it and was found to be scum, would you be doing the same thing? I bet you would.

In this case, I felt BOTH were scum. So how is that "not voting for scum"? Seems to me that I had two suspicions and chose between the both of them. So your reasoning falls apart and holds no weight.

As you well know, my case against you is not based on a few "Hahas" and yes, taunts ("tricky tricky" is a taunt, BTW, especially when aimed at the defense of a poster you are trying to get lynched).

Funny that you see it as a taunt and I see it as a compliment paid for being clever and savvy IF she does turn out to be mafia.

Its based on a number of slips, a change in voting patterns,

Snipped.

Please explain. For I have had the same voting pattern for the past four nights and have been saying the same thing for the past five or six. So what change are you speaking of?

voting away from fluiddruid in a manner that could have got her off the hook (exactly the way Blastermaster did the day before). Consistantly refering to past game experience well before it was necessary in a fashion that could only make you a target, but not being nightkilled.

Funny how, in this post made just a few pages ago (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8609451&postcount=1835) you say how you're "finding it hard to keep thinking I'm scum." Now all of a sudden you're going hard against me? Talk about changing tactics.

Its also based on your building a case against someone based purely on the defense post of a scum, and the fact that the poster voted against scum pretty consistantly (more than you have). When fluiddruid was on the hook you voted CaerieD, now known to be town. When Lemur866 was on the hook you voted SCL. The night after I suspect you were recruited the mafia suddenly get a successful kill - either the town stopped getting lucky, or they changed tactics.

Again, look at the history. I have been right in all of my feelings so far except in the case of dnooman, when lynching has occured. All the things I've layed out in the case against SCL have made sense. To the point where I'm not the only one who sees it or is supicious of her. I know Millit is too a little (even enough to vote for her). As is Blaster Master. As is Hal Briston.

Makes you think maybe it's not just me seeing these things.


And if SCL is town, the mafia have a very good reason to try to discredit her and get her lynched - because she's been right too often.

What a crock. If she's been right too often, why haven't they killed her off at Night way back when she first started voting for fluiddruid all those times? Does that make any sense at all? Everyone keeps saying "Oh, why would they kill her, you're doing a good job of it", but see, after all this time SCL is STILL in no danger of being lynched or killed off. You'd think they'd kill her at night so people would attack me the next day. You'd think they'd help me lynch her so people would attack me the next day. You'd think they'd have killed her off by now if she's been right all the time (and at the beginning of it too, before she could be right any more). NONE of that makes sense. How many times will she have to survive before people start actually going for her head?

Vote Idle Thoughts

That's no surprise. Have at it. I think you're scum too.
To be fair, though, I don't think you've always been. I think you were the recruit.

[Idle Thoughts]

And while I'm at it: Could you please mention what two points you meant? I read that post, as you well know, but didn't actually think to apply them to this game since they seem to be points that may be obvious to an observer but pretty hard to spot if you're in the game yourself.

My guess is you meant the points where he said that true townies usually write a post and rectify it shortly afterwards, you know, like I did way back here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8546505&postcount=1161) . (or maybe you meant the point that true townies are not really sure of themselves and qualify their statements and so on. Like I did in that same post)

Yeah, that's what I meant. Just seems you've been doing it a lot more as of late. :p I don't know if you are or aren't or are even aware of it, but it just struck me as funny (as it did Gad too when everyone started doing it a little in Mafia 4).

But I'm not holding that against you. No need. I already have enough suspicion by itself on you.

[DiggitCamara]

Gadarene, could we have a vote count please?

(I know, I know, "ha-ha"). Message courtesy of Idle Thoughts, others please disregard.

[Idle Thoughts]

Well, it looks like there is a good chance I'm going to get lynched. Since I think my neck is more valuable with a cat draped around it than a rope, and since my vote for zuma was mainly intended to get him to post, I'm going to unvote zuma and vote Idle Thoughts . I have already mentioned several reasons, but tirial in the post above says something I hadn't thought of...why hasn't he been nightkilled? He has repeatedly bragged on his experience. CaerieD still had suspicion against her, so the town may very well have lynched her. Why nightkill her?

I can explain that.
It is yet another thing that can be explained if you follow my theory.

You're scum.

There you go. Easy as pie. Another thing that could be explained if you were scum. You and your other mafia members did that so you could raise that point/issue here and give yourselves a reason to vote for me.

[DiggitCamara]

Yeah, that's what I meant. Just seems you've been doing it a lot more as of late. :p I don't know if you are or aren't or are even aware of it, but it just struck me as funny (as it did Gad too when everyone started doing it a little in Mafia 4).

But I'm not holding that against you. No need. I already have enough suspicion by itself on you.
Not only did I notice it, but I pretty much know you're town because of it (Gadarene pretty much named you, don'tchaknow?) And, sadly, because of the trends we have thus far (votingwise), I'll wait for the official vote count to force a coin flip between two townies.

[Idle Thoughts]

Gadarene, could we have a vote count please?

(I know, I know, "ha-ha"). Message courtesy of Idle Thoughts, others please disregard.

Actually, I'm not ha-haing.

He said he threw in a red herring over on proboards, remember?

WELL, being a past host of many games, I happen to think that "Asks more often for vote counts" is the thing that townies DON'T do. I think that was the red herring. I had noticed all the others in my past experence...save for that one.

But in other news, regardless of what you may be, I like you as as a poster. You're like me, light and all in this game in comments and personality.

[SnakesCatLady]

Idle Thoughts, repeating "you're scum" over and over does not make it so. It is not adding anything to the game. I do honestly wonder why CaerieD was nightkilled when there were townies who suspected her; it would make more sense to me that they would just let the town do the job for them.

[Idle Thoughts]

Idle Thoughts, repeating "you're scum" over and over does not make it so. It is not adding anything to the game. I do honestly wonder why CaerieD was nightkilled when there were townies who suspected her; it would make more sense to me that they would just let the town do the job for them.

Oh, I know.

I'm just trying to make it more than abundantly clear who people should go for if I'm the one lynched this day. Or at least what players to have the most suspicions over.

[DiggitCamara]

Actually, I'm not ha-haing.

He said he threw in a red herring over on proboards, remember?

WELL, being a past host of many games, I happen to think that "Asks more often for vote counts" is the thing that townies DON'T do. I think that was the red herring. I had noticed all the others in my past experence...save for that one.

(snip)

Hal Briston asking for a vote-count (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8580408&highlight=vote+count#post8580408)
NAF (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8485696&postcount=257) asking for a vote count
dnooman (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8486003&postcount=266) providing an unofficial vote count (granted: he wasn't asking for it)
tirial (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8496246&postcount=507)
asking for a vote count
DiggitCamara (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8532690&postcount=1026) asking for a vote count

In other words: many current players (and some dead townies) asked for updated vote counts. I don't know if this was the red herring or if it wasn't, since I don't know for a fact most of the other player's allegiances.

[Idle Thoughts]

Hal Briston asking for a vote-count (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8580408&highlight=vote+count#post8580408)
NAF (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8485696&postcount=257) asking for a vote count
dnooman (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8486003&postcount=266) providing an unofficial vote count (granted: he wasn't asking for it)
tirial (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8496246&postcount=507)
asking for a vote count
DiggitCamara (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8532690&postcount=1026) asking for a vote count

In other words: many current players (and some dead townies) asked for updated vote counts. I don't know if this was the red herring or if it wasn't, since I don't know for a fact most of the other player's allegiances.

Fair enough.

[DiggitCamara]

Adding: Idle Thoughts, can you provide lists of confirmed scum asking for vote counts? (in other words: did fluiddruid and/or Lemur866 ask for vote counts at all? I would have loved to add them to my post, but frankly I didn't find them)

[Millit the Frail]

The day ends tomorrow morning, right? We still need to hear votes from nesta, Rachm Qoch, Blaster Master, and zuma.

All of them have looked shady to me at one time or another, and now they're all hanging back, waiting to get their votes in. Possibly waiting to see if a Mafia needs saving at the last minute or if a townie gets a bandwagon rolling. Possibly just away from their computers, though.

I tried to say this in my last post, but I think it came out a lot more convoluted than I meant it to. Less action means less to go on, and there's been a lot less action these past few days. It looks like four or five people are making the big decisions in this game, and everyone else is just reacting. I'm kind of guilty of this myself. And only two or three people at a time are receiving scrutiny in any serious way, which means that there are plenty of players who have never been "on the spot." If we could rally together and start testing some other players, say, tomorrow (since it's so late today), we could see what happens when we drum up a few votes. I mean not just one or two votes, but a real threat. I'm talking about those players I listed above, none of whom have ever received a serious number of votes.

Also, it has sometimes been beneficial in past games to do detailed posting analyses on certain suspicious posters. Will there come a time for that in this game? I think that the four posters I've mentioned deserve it at some point. I wouldn't be surprised if at least two are scum.

[Idle Thoughts]

Adding: Idle Thoughts, can you provide lists of confirmed scum asking for vote counts? (in other words: did fluiddruid and/or Lemur866 ask for vote counts at all? I would have loved to add them to my post, but frankly I didn't find them)

I never looked. Nor have I been paying attention. I just saw your call out to me based on your asking for a count update and remembered that too (as you obviously did : p) from over yonder.

I then realized that I'd never really seen that before from town in my experience..but then again, it's all different games. But no matter, I assumed (and still do) that that was the false one.

But all of this is moot anyway since it's neither adding to or subtracting my suspicion of you. That was set into place way before and all of this, since, was my amused (and probably way off, which I said) observations.

[DiggitCamara]

(snip)
I never looked. Nor have I been paying attention. I just saw your call out to me based on your asking for a count update and remembered that too (as you obviously did : p) from over yonder.

I then realized that I'd never really seen that before from town in my experience..but then again, it's all different games. (snip)
Do you even read what you yourself have posted? Because I do read what I have posted. And see my own mistakes in it.

I'm serious. It's one of the ways to try to eliminate confirmation bias. I look, for instance, at my "reasons" to indict Lightnin'. I try to see my mistakes. I try to learn.

That's one of the reasons why I read through the 3rd day's events. And why I have FOS'd whom I have FOS'd and treated as "trusted" some other players as well. And it's something that I will doing on tuesday. Again.

Trusting my own "experience" is a treacherous thing to do. It's absolutely unadvisable. All it takes is for one poster to trip one of my ego-wires and I'll go off on a tangent. And that's what I see, writ large, all over your own posts. Stop hyping your own experience and start watching what is truly happening.

[Idle Thoughts]

Do you even read what you yourself have posted? Because I do read what I have posted. And see my own mistakes in it.

Snipped.

Excuse me? Yeah, I do. I probably have read this topic more than anyone actually, over and over and over. Why do you think I feel so sure of myself who the mafia remaining are? I have no job. I have no classes to attend. I don't even have a life. I sit online most all day and now that I have something to do (this game) I've been going through it all every day and reading parts over and over. And the things I've outlined all through my posts the last four days or so, what with suspicions of you, SCL, and tirial come from those readings and notes.

Now I know exactly what I meant that started this off a few posts ago and you're making a strawman out of it. I made an offhand comment that I found it funny what you were doing (or rather SEEMED to be doing) and that it struck me funny. DID I SAY you were scum for those reasons? No. I wasn't even using that as fodder. It was just something I noticed the struck me as funny since that's what it seemed like.

After Gad posted that whole list in that Mafia 4 topic, he started laughing too, didja catch that? He started saying things like "haha hilarious" and "very funny" because he saw what I did in there too and what I did in THIS TOPIC. That it just seemed like people started to do that a lot. Does it mean anything? Does it mean Gad is scum in the other game? Does it mean he should be lynched right away for finding posts funny that apparently reflect what he just posted? NO, it doesn't nessacarily. It only means that I just found it funny and laughed at it. Did you not notice the smile? I wasn't being sarcastic, you know. I was being sincere when I said "You make me laugh"...because of what it seemed you were trying to do.

Only now you're building it up and trying to make it MEAN something. You're linking to all these past posts and stuff which have NOTHING to do with what I mean since I was JOKING. Have others done that? Yeah. Have dead players done that? Yeah. Have people who are confirmed town did that? Yeah. Have YOU even done that before and long ago in this topic? Yeah, apparently (since you linked to it). But Jesus [/b]Christ, Gads post wasn't made THEN. It was only made NOW and thus, I noticed your posts NOW and found funny since I already had suspicions of you strongly and it just seemed you were subtly doing exactly all he listed.

[DiggitCamara]

Snipped.

Excuse me? Yeah, I do. I probably have read this topic more than anyone actually, over and over and over. Why do you think I feel so sure of myself who the mafia remaining are? I have no job. I have no classes to attend. I don't even have a life. I sit online most all day and now that I have something to do (this game) I've been going through it all every day and reading parts over and over. And the things I've outlined all through my posts the last four days or so, what with suspicions of you, SCL, and tirial come from those readings and notes.
(snip)

I'll accept that at face value.

The problem is, from what I have read during this gameday, you haven't actually reflected your convictions (concerning SnakesCatLady at least in this thread.

The only real reason I see for anyone to vote aganst her (in this thread) has been because she was listed in the accusation list of known scum.

Since I suppose her to be non-scum and you to be non-scum as well, I will, loathe though I am to do it, unvote ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies. And vote Idle Thoughts.

My suspicion list (in decreasing order) is still

1. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
2. BlasterMaster

[DiggitCamara]

Actually what I meant to say was:

he problem is, from what I have read during this gameday, you haven't actually substantiated your convictions (concerning SnakesCatLady) at least in this thread.

[Idle Thoughts]

That's because it's all there already. I've said and repeated myself a few times each day, even going back and forth, at times, with her and others about it. I can link to past posts if you like, but nothing changes. I still feel the same ways and am voting for the same reasons.

But anyway, this is interesting in itself. I'm now voted on by the three people I'm the most suspicious of.

When I go, and am found to be town, I really hope the other players will finally start looking at you three the way I've been looking at you three all this time.

[Gadarene]

Updated Vote Count

3 -- SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts, Hal Briston, Millit the Frail)
2 -- Idle Thoughts (SnakesCatLady, DiggitCamara)

Is that right?

Also, the way you guys are meta-analyzing my Mafia IV list is hysterical. :)

[Gadarene]

Idle Thoughts:

But anyway, this is interesting in itself. I'm now voted on by the three people I'm the most suspicious of.

By my count you've got two votes. Is this wrong?

[SnakesCatLady]

Idle Thoughts:



By my count you've got two votes. Is this wrong?

I believe tirial also voted for Idle Thoughts. First, according to my notes.

[Idle Thoughts]

Since I suppose her to be non-scum and you to be non-scum as well, I will, loathe though I am to do it, unvote ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies. And vote Idle Thoughts.

:dubious: :dubious: :dubious:

Boldings mine.

Reading your post over again, what the heck? You're voting for me even though you suppose me to be non-scum? :dubious: How much sense does that make? If you think both her and I are non-scum, why bother voting for either of us then?

Oh, and you've come a long way from just earlier today (a mere four hours ago)saying what you said in this post: (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8617815&postcount=1915)

Not only did I notice it, but I pretty much know you're town because of it (Gadarene pretty much named you, don'tchaknow?) And, sadly, because of the trends we have thus far (votingwise), I'll wait for the official vote count to force a coin flip between two townies.

Bolding mine..but not all of it since you, yourself, already had the word "know" bolded.

Wow, so that sure in your knowing (just four hours ago) yet here you are being the tie-breaker for my lynching?

Congratulations, DiggitCamara. You have succeeded in surpassing SnakesCatLady as my leading suspect. No small feat as I'm about 85 percent sure she's scum...but I'm now 97 percent sure you are.

So unvote SnakesCatLady and vote DiggitCamara even though that will mean I'll need TWO more votes now to tie it up. Your major inconsistancy there just can't be ignored though and I hope I'm not the only one to catch it.

[Idle Thoughts]

even though that will mean I'll need TWO more votes now to tie it up.

Snipped.

What I mean is, even though I'll need two more votes for SCL (or a full three for someone else entirely) to tie it up and have my neck saved.

See, I'm doing it too. :p

[Gadarene]

I believe tirial also voted for Idle Thoughts. First, according to my notes.

Ah yes; it was a different shade of blue. Thanks!

Updated Updated Vote Count

3 -- Idle Thoughts (tirial, SnakesCatLady, DiggitCamara)
2 -- SnakesCatLady (Hal Briston, Millit the Frail)
1 -- DiggitCamara (Idle Thoughts)

[Idle Thoughts]

Oh! I didn't know Hal voted for SCL too. :smack:

[Idle Thoughts]

Okay, well, I've been sitting here for the past hour really thinking hard and long about this post. Debating whether or not to post it, what to say if I did, if I thought it would be in my and my teams best interest, and all that.

But really, time is growing short--which isn't bad in itself...but for me it is, as I usually leave around another three or so hours and don't get on again, in the daytimes, until noon my time.

By that time, tomorrow, Day in the game will be long over.

So, first off, due to the pressing time and due to missing Hal's vote for SCL before, I'm going to tie it up again by unvoting DiggitCamara and voting SnakesCatLady again.

I want to say though, just so it's not held against me later (like it was this time even though I said this before for others), that I feel VERY VERY strongly that Diggit is scum too. However, I can only vote for one person (for one) and (for two) a vote for another person I think is scum that will tie it up with my vote count seems the best choice.

I wish I could wait longer. I had hoped more people would have voted by now...but it seems in this game the fad is to get a lot of last minute voting in. This, combined with when this Day ends, is unfortunate for me, again, because I'm never on anytime before 11ish/noonish PST time.

But since I'm leaving in a few hours and my head is one of those (tied now for being) on the chopping block, it's just too risky to keep my vote on Diggit and not make it a draw right now. Besides..I've had strong suspicions on SCL almost as far back as Day Three.



That being said...here's the next part to my post. Again, I thought about this for a long time. Wondering what to do, fighting with myself a bit, weighing the options. And in the end, when your head's the one in the noose (or even tied for it) and you're not going to be around later to defend yourself, well, I figured this is a good time as any to bring all the things I can to light.

Again, I wish I could have waited longer. But in no less than about three hours, I'll be gone for good from the game until tomorrow when Day is over by a longshot. I just can't risk it and, well, I just got to hope that the the real pro-towners believe me and thus know of at least one person not to vote for.

So, without further ado..

I'm the Night Watchman.

Yeah, it's me. Do I know if I've made any saves so far? Nope. But now you know why I think that that whole three-in-a-row nokills was our own Doc being recruited. Because I don't think I'm that lucky.

Sure, it could have been me..but I wouldn't bet on it. Really, I wouldn't bet, in surity, on anything in this game.

But anyway, here's the lowdown on what I've done so far:

Night one I chose to patrol the Village Green.

Night two I choose to patrol the Tavern.

Ah...Night three.. the moment I thought, for once, that I was right. See I chose the Village Green again..and lo and behold we have this the next dawn. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8544246&postcount=1116)

Well, that was interesting. I chose the Village Green and that's where the day started. Now, I KNOW now that Gad makes that the default if there was a block/nokill. But I didn't at the time. So that is what brought me to this assumption when I was talking to Blaster Master. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8546704&postcount=1178)

But Diggit caught that in this post. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8546781&postcount=1182)

So that's what prompted me (and others) to ask about it.
Gad cleared it up here though. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8547605&postcount=1214) And that didn't make sense to me since I saw him personalize Night kills before..so that is what finally led to me saying this here. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8547615&postcount=1216) Just so I knew, for sure, that I wouldn't have any extra tidbits of knowledge. Pity, but I guess that's how the role goes.


Anyway, continuing on..Night Four I patrolled the Railroad Tracks and I did so again on Night Five. Both of those were (the other two) nokill nights.

Night Six (last one, the Night CaerieD was taken from us) I patroled the Town Hall. Obviously they killed her at The Wharf.

And there you have it. I'm not saying what I'm patroling tonight, obviously, nor will I be taking suggestions. But I'm the Night Watchman and NOW those of you who voted for me, if I AM really the one that winds up getting it, you'll look even worse. Because I'm still protown. I haven't been recruited, and personally, with the three nokills in a row, I don't see how anyone could think I was recruited. The chances that I'd be right TWICE in a row is plausible..but I think very unlikely. So, like Rachm Qoch and I said earlier, I think the first two were a hit on our Doc and the last nokill was the recruit.
I think that was Tirial...since way back before the first nokill night, she and I were among the biggest, most analytical, and most aggressive players (and remained so). This is what lead me to think that they tried hitting one of us (her) and found they couldn't since she had protected herself.


So go on now. Vote for me and kill me off. I dare you. Like I said before, the three I find the MOST suspicious are the three voting for me right now, so in a way I actually hope they DON'T change their votes just so we can see what things really are and if I'm right (and I feel I am). Yeah, that's interesting. It'll also be interesting to see if they keep their vote on me and claim they don't believe me or think I was recruited. Again, here's hoping.

But no matter. In any case, I feel my time is up for this game. Even if they unvote, I feel the next Night will be my killing.






HOWEVER, one other thing I thought in my 45 minutes of thoughts. It did occur to me that the scum might try casting a "nokill" vote for the next night and having everyone think I was recruited. It'd be pretty smart...so if that does happen the next night, I wouldn't believe it (since, like I said, I think recruitment already happened).

There it all is laid out. Do with it what you will. At least I still have about two or two and a half hours to answer questions or give defense if anyone wants to challenge me or accuse me of anything.

So yeah, if you're really pro-town, you can erase me from your list of suspects and put them elsewhere. If not though, that's fine. Won't look too good for you in the end, however.

[SnakesCatLady]

Wow. Why am I not surprised at that vote change? As for the role claim, well, whatever. If you are Night Watchman (who damn sure won't be doing the town much good now, will you?) or not, it looks like it's the players who haven't yet voted have to decide to vote against a player who votes against scum or a player who talks about scum. Or Random.org.

[nesta]

So unvote SnakesCatLady and vote DiggitCamara even though that will mean I'll need TWO more votes now to tie it up. Your major inconsistancy there just can't be ignored though and I hope I'm not the only one to catch it.


That's a rather ballsy move there Idle Thoughts. Not that I disagree with you. DiggitCamara has been near the top of my suspicion list for a long time, and I very much agree that his saying he was sure that you are town and then voting for you is about as close to a smoking gun as we're likely to get in this game. But your neck is on the line and if we divide our votes between SnakesCatLady and DiggitCamara it could be you that gets lynched instead.

<out-of-game>I've been really slammed for the last three days because one of our client's servers went down, and data recovery has taken a number of ugly turns. Dealing with this has taken all the time I'd hoped to dedicate to this game (and other things) this weekend. Bah.</out of game>

For the record: Idle Thoughts has been one of the few in my "probably town" list for most of the game. I really hope I'm right. If you are scum Idle Thoughts you played a great game. It's possible he's been recruited, but I think it's more likely tirial was, or someone else who isn't quite so in the limelight.

Since I think Idle Thoughts is town, and I think both SnakesCatLady and DiggitCamera are scum, I really think it's in the town's best interest to lynch one of them instead.

So, [was blue]vote DiggitCamara. I really think he's scum, and have for quite some time. I'm more confident that he is than SnakesCatLady.

I think Hal Briston said he was going to be out of town this weekend, so I'm not sure if he's going to be back in time to change his vote, or even if he would. Millit the Frail, care to change your vote to DiggitCamera so we don't lynch Idle Thoughts?

I will switch my vote to SnakesCatLady later tonight if it's a choice between her and Idle Thoughts, but I feel more strongly about DiggitCamara so I feel my vote should be there right now.

[bah, I got interrupted with work again while composing this post, and now Idle Thoughts has switched back.]

Goddamnit Idle Thoughts, you had to role claim the only role we have left that can help us? There was still time to save you from lynching without the role claim. Now, if the doctor wasn't recruited they could protect you, but if they haven't been recruited the Mafia probably knows who they are and they've been self-protecting for many nights in a row, which means they are in a very tough guessing game now between protecting themselves and you. I think you're dead tonight. That role claim was stupid (if true I guess).

If it isn't true we have the real night watchman that knows you are scum now. Hm, unless the real night watchman was recruited, and you know that. But I can't dwell on that now because I have work to do and I believe you're town for now for better or worse.

So, I'll stand by you, even though I don't like your role claim, and am actually less convinced you are town now than before:

[color=blue]Vote SnakesCatLady. Idle Thoughts, I would be willing to switch back to DiggitCamera if you and a few others would also be willing to.

[Rachm Qoch]

And I'll repeat again: fluiddruid's farewell post WAS NOT WRITTEN TO HELP US IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM. IT WAS WRITTEN TO FAVOR SCUM. AND SHE PUT HER CONSIDERABLE INTELLIGENCE INTO SHAPING IT IN A WAY THAT IT WOULD DO NOTHING BUT CONFUSE TOWN.
I find it interesting how this contrasts with what you said further up the page here in Post #1889 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8613811&postcount=1889):
Funny. I was looking through yesterday's posts and found this doozy (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8596964&postcount=1728) and really, truly don't know what to make of it.

I get the theory that fluiddruid voted for SnakesCatLady to get the heat away from her. That didn't work out very well, though and at the start of yesterday people like BlasterMaster were saying the probable lynch candidates would be her or CaerieD.

And then, when Lemur866 was about to bite the dust, he implicates her very strongly as well. So... the scum used a failed strategy twice?? And against this stubborn lot, who have just once lynched someone who wasn't suspected (Lemur866)?

(to those who are watching: don't do this at home. I really truly don't know whether SnakesCatLady is scum or not. As a townie you should NEVER fully trust ANYONE but yourself. I'm doing this on what is a potentially disastrous whim for myself)
To clarify, Lemur's post you're linking to is:
Good grief, is "you all" an unknown speach construction around here?

We had four people who voted for Lightning the other day. You all know who you are. Some of you just made a mistake, but some of you voted for someone you knew to be town. And how did you know he was town? Simple, you know the list of scum already, because you're scum.

As we've seen earlier, "defending yourself" is mostly useless, a better tactic is not to defend yourself but build a case against another player.

So if I'm going to swing today, better I should spend that time building a case against my all-time scum list topper rather than bleating "but I'm innocent, innocent I tell you!"

So I'm gonna vote SnakesCatLady once again.

She's been on my list since the beginning, which only intensified from Fluiddruid's "don't throw me in that briar patch" last post where she fingered SnakesCatLady as scum. Very convenient. I'm not buying the argument that a scum that we'll soon know to be scum would try to bury a townie. She was trying to protect her compatriot.

In a way, getting lynched will be a relief...I haven't been able to pay as much attention to this game as I'd like due to, you know, a job and kids and a wife and such. (color removed)

Let me get this straight. You state in no uncertain terms that because she's scum, fluiddruid's final posts are so cleverly constructed that there's no way to gather any useful information from them one way or another, but turn around and say that Lemur's final posts somehow let SCL off the hook?

Hwuuuhhhhh?

Yeah, you're scum. vote DiggitCamara

[SnakesCatLady]

Well, looks like I'm going to swing. The town is not likely to win if they keep on lynching townies. For what it is worth, I am very suspicious of zuma, who hasn't contributed anything to the discussion since he subbed in. Combined with Omi no Kami's record, I think he is someone to look closely at.

I am suspicious of Idle Thoughts. No matter what excuses he comes up with, I can't see how he is so adamant when I am scum, especially since my record of voting against scum is better than his. I do want to make sure that the townies remember who led this lynching and deprived the town of another member.

With the exception of Idle Thoughts, everyone who has voted for me has relatively low post counts. They all should be looked at closely.

It will be interesting to see how this game plays out.

[Idle Thoughts]

Wow. Why am I not surprised at that vote change? As for the role claim, well, whatever. If you are Night Watchman (who damn sure won't be doing the town much good now, will you?)

Snipped some.

Well, two things. First of all, I still have that one in six chance, now don't I? ;)

Secondly, you're not telling me anything I don't already know. I know I'm pretty much screwed for this game...either by being killed off tonight or lynching today/tomorrow or something else...but when people like you and Diggit (who, again, did a complete 180 in his last post--pretty good scum tell) force votes on someone with a role, that's what you get eventually.




That's a rather ballsy move there Idle Thoughts. Not that I disagree with you. DiggitCamara has been near the top of my suspicion list for a long time, and I very much agree that his saying he was sure that you are town and then voting for you is about as close to a smoking gun as we're likely to get in this game.

So glad I'm not the only one who this hit hard in very shady behavior/inconsistancy.

But your neck is on the line and if we divide our votes between SnakesCatLady and DiggitCamara it could be you that gets lynched instead.

I'll keep my vote on SCL.


For the record: Idle Thoughts has been one of the few in my "probably town" list for most of the game. I really hope I'm right. If you are scum Idle Thoughts you played a great game. It's possible he's been recruited, but I think it's more likely tirial was, or someone else who isn't quite so in the limelight.

Not yet, although I do predict a no kill vote by the mafia tomorrow to maybe make people think so. Either that, or they'll kill off someone who isn't me to make me look like I'm lying in some way (either at not being recruited or not being the NW at all).

But I don't see how that would work.
After all, if I were recruited, that would have been a pretty random guess on their part, agreed? And it would have had to have been ONE of the three nokill nights in a row, correct?

So, that means on TWO of those days there had to have been a save. Sure they could have voted nokill all three of those nights or even just one but I don't see why they'd waste a night.

So going under the belief that two of those days had to have been saves, it was either the Doc or me (or perhaps a combo of the two). Now, it being me both nights is pretty slim. It COULD have been but I just don't feel it. I feel that they hit someone that first night, found they couldn't, and tried hitting them again the next night just to be sure and found, again, they couldn't. They then felt reasonably sure it was the Doc and recruited.

Even with the case that it was a combo of me and the Doc, it works, however in that case my save becomes redundant anyway if the Doc was self-protecting.


A recruitment of me, though, would be out of the blue and doesn't make sense. Added to this, of course, being the main fact that I KNOW I'm still pro-town leads me to think it was the Doc, unfortunatly.





There is another case, too, but I think it's actually less of a chance than me being lucky twice.

Could be they, on that first night, didn't choose to hit tirial (or me for that matter), but another player. And this player was either the Doc or (if not) saved by me. But I don't like that scenerio either. Just reads wrong and doesn't make sense.


Goddamnit Idle Thoughts, you had to role claim the only role we have left that can help us? There was still time to save you from lynching without the role claim.

I waited as long as I could! I'm leaving practially in about half an hour/45 minutes. I couldn't take the chance someone else would vote in that amount of time. I also wanted to, just in case, give myself some time to head off all or any debates or challenges over it as well.

Like I said, it's unfortunate and I wish I had more time but I didn't and didn't want to take that chance. I thought about it for a full hour before starting the post above and figured that, in the end, I couldn't take that chance. I waited for awhile to see if someone would cast another vote but it just seemed dead and time was running out (for me--the person who had the most votes at the time).


I think you're dead tonight. That role claim was stupid (if true I guess).

Me too, but if you're really protown, don't assume that WILL be the case. Like I said, they could nokill or kill off someone else entirely just to try to make people waver in trusting me.

Anyway, thank you for your trust. I really hope, if I ever do get killed--whether sooner or later--my death would help my team to a victory.

[Idle Thoughts]

Me too, but if you're really protown, don't assume that WILL be the case. Like I said, they could nokill or kill off someone else entirely just to try to make people waver in trusting me.

Heck, it might also be me making the save. Here's hoping.

[Rachm Qoch]

So, without further ado..

I'm the Night Watchman.

Well... that makes things interesting. So that probably means either a) You're the Watchman; or b) You're scum.
But your neck is on the line and if we divide our votes between SnakesCatLady and DiggitCamara it could be you that gets lynched instead.



I'll keep my vote on SCL.
This is suspicious!

nesta offers to save your skin by switching votes to DiggitCamara, who you claim is more suspicious than SCL, yet you keep your vote on SCL nevertheless? IIRC, you say you're 85% sure SCL is scum and 97% sure that DiggitCamara is scum. Ostensibly you are 100% sure you are town.

DiggitCamara has two votes from me and Cookies. If you and nesta were to vote DiggitCamara, you would be safe, and he'd be dead.

But for some reason you are willing to vote to lynch SCL, who you say is slightly less suspicious than DiggitCamara, whilst risking saving Diggit's neck by risking your own (as well as SCL's). Both you and nesta had been on my Questionmark List. I'd thought you were both less suspicious than DiggitCamara, but now I don't know. If I were you, I'd reconsider your decision (assuming for the moment that you're truly Watchman, of course.)

[nesta]

DiggitCamara has two votes from me and Cookies. If you and nesta were to vote DiggitCamara, you would be safe, and he'd be dead.
Wait, I don't see a vote from Cookies. Was Gadarene wrong in his vote count, or did I miss Cookies's vote somehow?

[Rachm Qoch]

Wait, I don't see a vote from Cookies. Was Gadarene wrong in his vote count, or did I miss Cookies's vote somehow?
I think so! Cookies voted DiggitCamara back in Post #1870 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8610934&postcount=1870) and as far as I can tell he hasn't unvoted him. By my reckoning SCL and Idle each have 3 votes, and DiggitCamara 2.

[Millit the Frail]

Crap, now I've been missing for all the action! I'm keeping my vote on SCL. I'm not so sure about Idle, but I feel like the votes against Diggit are coming out of left field and are mainly for personal reasons. I mean, he started the Lemur thing yesterday, practically out of nowhere. I think that alone means he deserves some more time to explain himself. He led a very effective bandwagon yesterday, and people are already chomping at the bit to lynch him today? That looks scummy on everyone but Idle Thoughts. I don't feel like Diggit's changes of heart are flip-flopping--it feels more like confused, wavering townie. I've been thinking about it more and more, and the Idle/Diggit thing really feels like a townie/townie fight. Let's not lynch either--at least not today, OK?

[SnakesCatLady]

hummmmmm, I posted about a half hour ago, but I guess the hamsters ate it.

I have 4 votes: Idle Thoughts, Hal Briston, Millet the Frail and nesta. I think Idle Thoughts went after DiggitCamera because he was defending me.

Ya'll really need to look at zuma. Why would someone sub in and not participate?

[DiggitCamara]

[color removed]

That's a rather ballsy move there Idle Thoughts. Not that I disagree with you. DiggitCamara has been near the top of my suspicion list for a long time, and I very much agree that his saying he was sure that you are town and then voting for you is about as close to a smoking gun as we're likely to get in this game. But your neck is on the line and if we divide our votes between SnakesCatLady and DiggitCamara it could be you that gets lynched instead.

(snip)

The problem is, though, I'm convinced BOTH SnakesCatLady and Idle Thoughts are TOWN.

And right now Idle Thought's posts are doing town a lot of harm. That was the main reason why I changed my vote from someone whom I suspect strongly of being scum to someone whom I pretty much know to be town to tie up the vote (unless he's been recruited). That way it comes down to the salomonic decision of Random.org as to which townie will be lynched.

[DiggitCamara]

(snipped)
Let me get this straight. You state in no uncertain terms that because she's scum, fluiddruid's final posts are so cleverly constructed that there's no way to gather any useful information from them one way or another, but turn around and say that Lemur's final posts somehow let SCL off the hook?

Hwuuuhhhhh?

(snipped)

What?

I didn't say that (or at least, I didn't mean to say that). Look: if TWO KNOWN SCUM both tell you (practically at their deathbed) that they strongly suspect one player, isn't it reasonable to think they are trying to apply reverse psychology so you lynch her as well?

[SnakesCatLady]

Wonder why I'm not dead yet? Isn't it past time? I figured Idle Thoughts would be in here to celebrate lynching another townie by now...

[Gadarene]

Sorry this is late and rushed. Memorial Day and all.

As she is trundled toward the gallows, SnakesCatLady continues to protest her innocence. "Hear me, townspeople! I'm one of you!" She points from one to the next. "In fact, I've got a better voting record than you, and you, and you...and you, Goody Proctor! I voted for fluiddruid again and again, until people finally listened, and I voted for Lemur866 as well! You're making a mistake!"

"That may be true," says one of the townspeople. "But it is you who have made the bigger mistake. Never match wits with a group of Cecilians when death is on the line!"

"But---" says SnakesCatLady, and then it is too late.

SnakesCatLady, a citizen, is dead, with only her cats to mourn her.


Everyone please submit your night instructions by Wednesday at 1:15 p.m. my time.

[SnakesCatLady]

Good luck, townies. Someone feed my cats, will ya?

[DiggitCamara]

Well, I did my best to avert your death. :(

Take care.


Grumble-grumble-grumble

[Millit the Frail]

That settles a few things for me, at least. I'm so sorry it went this way, though.

[tirial]

Sorry, SnakesCatLady, did my best.

Will feed the cats.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Sorry y'all, but my availability has been nil due to kitten-herding our friends and family around Vegas.

I don't know what impact it may or may not have had, but I had voted for Diggit earlier in the day, so at the last vote count I saw he would've had 2.

Sorry to see you go, SCL. :(

[Hal Briston]

Hi everyone, I'm back! Did I miss anyth....ahhh, crap!

Remember those sincere apologies I mentioned, SCL? Well, they may not be doing much good now, but they're still being sent your way. :(

[Idle Thoughts]

well, nobody feels worse than I do right now.

I'm not even going to apoligize because it wouldn't even begin to make up for it.

[Blaster Master]

Oh, for the love of God! I'm away from my computer for the weekend and all hell breaks loose...

[Hal Briston]

So, whadda we think this time around? Are the scum going to be big meanies and use up their full time allotment, or will they hurry up and make attempt their hit so we can get on with this?

[DiggitCamara]

So, whadda we think this time around? Are the scum going to be big meanies and use up their full time allotment, or will they hurry up and make attempt their hit so we can get on with this?
My guess is they're waiting 'til BlasterMaster steps away from his computer.

[Blaster Master]

My guess is they're waiting 'til BlasterMaster steps away from his computer.
:confused:

[Hal Briston]

:confused:I'm not certain, but I think it was a play on your last comment:
I'm away from my computer for the weekend and all hell breaks loose...

[DiggitCamara]

I'm not certain, but I think it was a play on your last comment:
got it in one. :D

[Millit the Frail]

So. Which one of us is a dead townie walking? Is the Mafia leaving it up to random.org or what?

Hey! If you're having a craving for brains this morning...

...you might be a zombie townie.

[DiggitCamara]

So. Which one of us is a dead townie walking? Is the Mafia leaving it up to random.org or what?

Hey! If you're having a craving for brains this morning...

...you might be a zombie townie.
patience, little grashopper. The deadline is in the afternoon.

[Gadarene]

For what it's worth, I'm waiting for a particular player to respond to me anyway, for reasons I will explain when they do.

[tirial]

<drums fingers>

f5...

<strokes cats>

f5...

<laments lack of alcohol in office>

f5...

What time does night end again?

[DiggitCamara]

For what it's worth, I'm waiting for a particular player to respond to me anyway, for reasons I will explain when they do.

I checked my mail. It ain't me. (so stop looking at me. I mean you, tirial)

[Rachm Qoch]

No PM here...

f5...

<strokes cats>

f5...

<laments lack of alcohol in office>

f5...

You have office cats? That's even better than office booze!

[Idle Thoughts]

Dum de doo....
*whistles*

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

We're home at last. I see the scum are taking their sweet time again.

[Hal Briston]

The hell? So much for rushing back from my errands...

[tirial]

We're home at last. I see the scum are taking their sweet time again.
<throws confetti>

Hope you had a good break - now you're back to the insanity of Ceciltown...

[Hal Briston]

Well, at least we have a distraction now...

Welcome back, Cookies! How went the ceremony?

[Gadarene]

Dawn coming up.

[Hal Briston]

When, damnit, when?? It's been twenty minutes!! I can't take the lies anymore! No more lies from the GM! No more lies!!!


<breaks down, sobbing pitifully>

[Blaster Master]

When, damnit, when?? It's been twenty minutes!! I can't take the lies anymore! No more lies from the GM! No more lies!!!


<breaks down, sobbing pitifully>

There, there, Hal... It looks like you've had a few too many drinks last night. :p

[Gadarene]

A Game Runner's Mea Culpa

Okay, so...I realized yesterday (real-time yesterday, not game-time yesterday), with great chagrin and a whole bunch of :smack: :smack: :smack: , that on one of the no-kill nights (I'm not going to say which) I somehow incorrectly concluded that the Night Watchman had been successful in blocking the Mafia's intended kill. In fact, the Night Watchman had been unsuccessful (and was actually the Mafia's target)...thus, a kill should have taken place that night, but didn't.

I really, really regret the error. Here's what I'm doing to fix it. I've talked to the Mafia and the Night Watchman, let them know what happened, and given them the chance to weigh in as to an equitable solution. They've done so, and everyone is pretty much on the same page.

Tonight, as you'll see in my next post, I'm going to mod-kill the Night Watchman in addition to processing the Mafia's normal target. This will at least partially rectify the state of events that was put wrong by my foul-up (although of course there's no way to go back and actually erase the Night Watchman's presence from subsequent days, nor would that necessarily be desirable even if possible). I think this is the fairest way to handle things, and the Night Watchman and the Mafia all agree. I hope the rest of you do as well.

Again, sorry about that. I'd been doing a decent job up until this point, and now I feel like an utter ass. :o

[Hal Briston]

D'oh.

[Blaster Master]

Agh! And here I was, seeing your post, thinking the day had started... Oh my!

[Hal Briston]

I hope this isn't looked upon as "discussing strategy at night" ('cause it isn't), but I love the way Gadarene is repeatedly saying "Night Watchman" and not "Idle Thoughts". Hmmmmmm... :dubious:

Guess we'll find out shortly.

[tirial]

Again, sorry about that. I'd been doing a decent job up until this point, and now I feel like an utter ass. :o
If it makes you feel any better there are worse slips - I started this week's RPG with "So you've found the torn paper with WAD on it and now you're off to find out who Wade Stevens is.....d@mn."

[tirial]

I hope this isn't looked upon as "discussing strategy at night" ('cause it isn't), but I love the way Gadarene is repeatedly saying "Night Watchman" and not "Idle Thoughts". Hmmmmmm... :dubious:

Guess we'll find out shortly.

I was trying not to comment on that. But somehow I don't see myself leaving my PC until we get an update...

[Millit the Frail]

Well, that solves another mystery--our Night Watchman really WAS just a little TOO lucky. We're losing two townies in one night? Crud.

[Gadarene]

The sky blushes a rosy pink, like someone up there is really, really freakin' embarrassed. :smack: As the townspeople gather in the village green, it seems that someone is missing. However, no one can pinpoint who the absent townie might be. Suddenly, someone exclaims, "Wait a second! Where's that new guy...the recluse. What's his name? zuma!"

The townspeople hear a faint, muffled cry from overhead. Looking up, they see zuma, bound and gagged and hanging from the top of the church steeple by a frayed and flimsy-looking piece of rope. Upside-down in the air, forty feet above the town, zuma twists and turns, swaying back and forth in an attempt to free himself from his bonds. The rope begins to split and break.

It is then that Idle Thoughts springs into action. Hitching up his pants, he proclaims, "Well, ever since that detective got offed, I guess I'm the closest thing this town has to a lawman. That means it's up to me to save those that need saving." Standing directly below zuma's dangling form, Idle Thoughts starts to rapidly construct a makeshift landing pad made of blankets, old tires, and lingerie.

Gravity outpaces Idle Thoughts's heroic efforts, however. The rope snaps, and zuma hurtles downward, landing squarely on Idle Thoughts and killing them both instantly.

zuma, a citizen, and Idle Thoughts, the Night Watchman, are dead.

The day will end at 5:00 p.m. my time on Sunday.

[Gadarene]

Updated Player List

Alive:

4. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
5. Hal Briston
6. nesta
12. tirial
13. Blaster Master
14. Millit the Frail
15. Rachm Qoch
16. DiggitCamara

Dead:

8. percypercy -- citizen (lynched, Day One)
2. NAF1138 -- citizen (murdered, Night One)
17. dnooman -- citizen (lynched, Day Two)
18. Kyrie Eleison -- detective (murdered, Night Two)
7. Projammer -- do-gooder (lynched, Day Three)
1. fluiddruid -- mafia (lynched, Day Four)
10. Lightnin' -- do-gooder (lynched, Day Five)
11. Lemur866 -- mafia (lynched, Day Six)
3. CaerieD -- citizen (murdered, Night Six)
9. SnakesCatLady -- citizen (lynched, Day Seven)
19. zuma -- citizen (murdered, Night Seven)
20. Idle Thoughts -- night watchman (collateral damage, Night Seven)

Eight players left; five votes needed to lynch.

[Hal Briston]

Ok, that officially sucked (not your writing, Gad...that was quite a good way to work in the storyline). Two more townies dead, leaves nine players left. I'm guessing at two scum, three if they've already recruited. The numbers are starting to add up pretty poorly.

Aaaand, on preview, I see I was looking at an old active player list. Make that eight players left. Craponnastick.

[Millit the Frail]

Welcome to the endgame, folks. If there are four Mafia left, we MUST get one tonight. If there are only three, we have a tiny bit of wiggle room. (I'm sure there are at least three, counting the recruit. And I feel pretty confident in the recruit.)

[Blaster Master]

This is an interesting turn of events to say the least. I'm concerned on two fronts:

1) The mod kill of Idle Thoughts, because this means that the three no-kill nights are actually only two. Since we don't know on which night Idle Thoughts should have died, can we make any guesses about how this affects the recruitment? Is it possible that he was right, that the scum tried to hit the doctor one night, got blocked, and recruited or is it possible. Because AFAICT they would have been under the assumption that their attempt to kill Idle Thoughts was a block as well, so if they did attack him on the first night, following his logic, why wasn't he recruited thereafter?

2) Why was Zuma killed? He made no contribution, and before he subbed in, Omi, had gained a fair bit of suspicion in his own right. This stinks to me, a lot like the CaerieD hit from the night before. Why, on the last two nights, have the mafia gone after targets who had some amount of town suspicion and not after the more obvious targets. My guess is that they deliberately left the Idle Thoughts / SCL pair alive because they knew between the two of them, they would likely get lynched. But why haven't other, seemingly good targets been killed, like tirial? If the recruitment did happen, as others have said, she seems to be the most likely recruitee; OTOH, this could be precisely where the mafia are leading us because they want us to lynch her and they've actually recruited someone else.

Anyone else have any ideas?

[tirial]

Idle Thoughts sorry to see you go - you definitely made the game more interesting. :) and alas zuma we hardly knew you.

Great. My top two suspects for today gone, and both were town. I need to do some reading. There are cases against everyone here:

Hal Briston, nesta and Millet have stayed somewhat under the radar. nesta and Hal had a set-to, but as no one else seemed to get involved it didn't go anywhere. Millet's spreadsheet could be a trick by a scum to look town, but if so she's been remarkably honest (and it would be a brilliant play if you are).

Blastermaster could still be scum, on the grounds I mentioned before (Day one and three vote for a start). Rachm could have been scum using CaerieD as cover.
Diggit would have looked like scum, if SCl had been scum as he defended her. However, this also works in reverse: a scum could defend a townie knowing that it would make him look more like town. I spent yesterday going after Idle Thoughts because I thought he'd been recruited, but he's now confirmed town which makes me look scummy.

Cookies I have remarkably little reading on, I am afraid.

A few random thoughts: Three no-kill nights made it seem certain the recruit had taken place. If we are down to only two no-kill nights it seems much less likely (I can easily see the doctor/NW/both getting lucky for two nights.) This means there is still a recruit risk.

More importantly, if there are only 8 players left, a town victory becomes difficult. We know two scum are dead, leaving 2-4 (+1 recruit?). It seems to have been assumed there are 4 masons, but if there are 4 scum and 4 masons there aren't any townies left, which seems unlikely. I don't think there are four scum frankly, and I suspect the mason numbers may be lower.

I need to do some thinking.

[nesta]

Well... fuck. I was right about Idle Thoughts ending up dead, but I didn't think he already was.

This isn't looking good.

[Hal Briston]

Ok, regarding the recruitment: I have maintained all along, and will continue to maintain that discussing it serves no purpose whatsoever. Maybe they already tried to recruit, maybe they didn't. Maybe they were blocked, maybe they weren't. The only time we're going to know the answers to any of this is when the game is over, so what's the point of even bringing it up?

During and in the aftermath of the three no-kill nights, we had tons of discussion about what may or may not have happened. And all of it was meaningless. Can we pretty pretty please focus here? Only one thing matters today -- finding and lynching a member of team scum. All the maybes and supposes in the world aren't going to help...it just muddies the water, and there's only a couple of players that would befit from that.

If I'm off-base on this, please let me know, but I don't see talking about it being worth much at all.

As for zuma's lynching, hell, I don't know...it doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but maybe scum don't like non-participatory players either?

[Blaster Master]

Ok, that officially sucked (not your writing, Gad...that was quite a good way to work in the storyline). Two more townies dead, leaves nine players left. I'm guessing at two scum, three if they've already recruited. The numbers are starting to add up pretty poorly.

Aaaand, on preview, I see I was looking at an old active player list. Make that eight players left. Craponnastick.

You're right, there's eight players left, which means, if their four scum, we lose with a bad lynch, and if there's three scum, we lose with a bad lynch and a successful night kill.

OTOH, the masons have yet to be revealed, and I'm unsure what to think of this as well. If the doctor has been recruited as opposed to a mason, and there's three masons, then they have a 60% chance of nailing scum, even if they're shooting completely at random at the non-masons.

On the down side, if there are three masons, they now have the distinct possibility of getting a mason-only victory, because their only lynch targets at this point will be either vanilla townie or scum. In fact, that now seems more likely than a whole-town victory because of that.

Oh boy...

[tirial]

As for zuma's lynching, hell, I don't know...it doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but maybe scum don't like non-participatory players either?

I have absolutely no idea what to make of that - it might just be that by killing him they give us the least information possible.

I think two or three are the most likely scum numbers, which makes things difficult for the the rest of us. We have to get it right today.

And I hate to say it but I can't resist: We've had a zombie Nightwatchman for the last few nights? What is this town coming to! Mafia, barflys, psychic cats, I can handle. Zombies? No, I am not going there...

[Blaster Master]

Ok, regarding the recruitment: I have maintained all along, and will continue to maintain that discussing it serves no purpose whatsoever. Maybe they already tried to recruit, maybe they didn't. Maybe they were blocked, maybe they weren't. The only time we're going to know the answers to any of this is when the game is over, so what's the point of even bringing it up?

During and in the aftermath of the three no-kill nights, we had tons of discussion about what may or may not have happened. And all of it was meaningless. Can we pretty pretty please focus here? Only one thing matters today -- finding and lynching a member of team scum. All the maybes and supposes in the world aren't going to help...it just muddies the water, and there's only a couple of players that would befit from that.

If I'm off-base on this, please let me know, but I don't see talking about it being worth much at all.

As for zuma's lynching, hell, I don't know...it doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but maybe scum don't like non-participatory players either?

I understand your point, but I disagree. I think it's important to analyze whether the recruitment already happened, and who might have gotten recruited. If it has happened, then we can look at the people who we think might have been recruited, but if we don't think it has, then we still have scum lurking around, unknown even to himself, and then it becomes quite possible that when it DOES happen, that the recruitment is then a mason, which makes him dangerous to EVERYONE.

If the recruitment HAS happened, then I think it was most likely the doctor (refering back to the numbers I crunched before). However, could it be that the first night was a block by Idle on someone other than the doctor, who was then recruited the second night, and Idle was hit on the third?

All in all, I think we'll find our answers in the last two kills... If the recruit happened, and it was the doctor (or non-mason), then shouldn't the mafia be going after masons? If the recruit happened, and it was a mason, maybe they're setting up to leave the masons together so they have as big of a pool as possible for the masons to poke in and find the recruit. If the recruit didn't happen... then I really can think of a reason to go after CaerieD and Zuma unless they're setting up to recruit a mason.

[Blaster Master]

And I hate to say it but I can't resist: We've had a zombie Nightwatchman for the last few nights? What is this town coming to! Mafia, barflys, psychic cats, I can handle. Zombies? No, I am not going there...
Hey, at least theirs no werewolves like in the next two-towns over. :D

[Blaster Master]

Oh, for the love of God:

at least there's no werewolves.

Damn my no-spell-checking.

[DiggitCamara]

Ok, that officially sucked (not your writing, Gad...that was quite a good way to work in the storyline). Two more townies dead, leaves nine players left. I'm guessing at two scum, three if they've already recruited. The numbers are starting to add up pretty poorly.

Aaaand, on preview, I see I was looking at an old active player list. Make that eight players left. Craponnastick.
... about the recruitment: GADARENE, READ YOUR PM'S, PLEASE.

(I sent him a PM containing the post I had prepared to start this day. It makes the question of recruitment relevant)

[Gadarene]

Just to clarify (and let me know if I misunderstood your PM, Diggit): Idle Thoughts was not recruited. If he was I would've said.