Forbidden thread Version 3 (off limits to players of Mafia III)

[Queuing]

Just cause they asked.

If you ask me, that Blaster Master looks mighty scummy!

[MadTheSwine]

Just cause they asked.

If you ask me, that Blaster Master looks mighty scummy!

You call this a thread....BAH!

[Gadarene]

I kinda wish the thread that didn't have my name in the title had stayed open, but what're you gonna do? :)

[MadTheSwine]

CURSES!!!...you may have won this time Queuing....but the next thread will be mine!

[Frank]

I kinda wish the thread that didn't have my name in the title had stayed open, but what're you gonna do? :)
That's OK; I've modified the title to make it more clear anyway.

[gonzoron]

I'll copy my post from the other thread here since it pertains to Mafia III, not II....

I hate to be a backseat hitman, but... oh wait, that's what this thread is for. I'm not an expert on this game, but in modesty I do consider myself an expert on games in general. I've been watching all three games with interest, and while the latest version has some interesting ideas, unfortunately I think there are a few flaws. Specifically the Do-Gooder and the Night Watchman. Both are excellent in flavor, but lacking in rules execution.

The problem with the Do-Gooder is that they have no power other than being un-corruptable. Thus, they don't really have a "tell" of any kind, so the Mafia is completely shooting in the dark. It's essentially a random chance that their ONE AND ONLY recruitment doesn't work. Seems a bit lacking as a "power role".

The Night Watchman is really cool in concept, but again, with no "tell," the result is a random 1 in 6 chance that the mafia kill fails as long as the NW is alive. Which is kind of disappointing for such a flavorful addition.

So, do I have a way to fix them or am I just bitching? Well, I have some suggestions. I would first of all give the Do-gooder some other power. I don't know what, but something that would encourage them to behave differently enough that the mafia has some slim chance of figuring it out. Or combine the do-gooder with another existing role. (Do-gooder detective, or Do-gooder Mason for example)

For the Night Watchman, I would make the locations matter more. Maybe make some sort of system whereby the players have to publicly declare where they will be that night, and then the Watchman has to make his choice.

Now you'd have to make sure that they don't break the system by everyone going to one place and having the watchman always protect that place. So there would have to be some limit on how many people fit in one place, which would have to be based somehow on the number of remaining players, lest the limit become obsolete when the number of players drops.

Then you have the issue that the NW just became a super-powerful doctor. So you'd have to limit his powers somehow. Maybe make him change locations every night, or only work on a limited number of nights. I'm not sure. This is a work in progress here...

You might make things even more flavorful by requiring the mafia to have at least one member on site to make the kill. That would certainly give the town a lot to analyze, and also make the mafia's choices a bit harder. But if you did that, you probably need less locations total so that the mafia isn't found immediately when 12 people are spread across 6 locations.

In the end, I don't know if the book-keeping of who is where would detract from the game, and I'm not expecting the mod to make any changes now that it's started (and certainly not recommending you use my suggestions in this half-baked form). Just making an observation and suggestion for future discussion...

Thoughts?

[Gadarene]

That's OK; I've modified the title to make it more clear anyway.

Thanks!

And gonzoron, thanks very much for your thoughts; I'm interested to see how the roles will work. I fully admit that the Do-Gooder role is entirely a balancing for the Mafia's recruitment ability, so the Mafia can't just wait until endgame and recruit someone with impunity. To that end, I don't know that the Do-Gooder needs any additional powers.

As for the Night Watchman, I put him in just for a little extra randomness...so the Mafia's not ensured of killing someone every night, and so they won't necessarily know that a failed killing was due to the protection of the Doctor. I think it adds an extra layer of Rock-Paper-Scissors Cat and Mouse, if you don't mind me mixing my metaphors horrendously, without complicating things unnecessarily. To put it another way, I'm not intending that the game be won or lost on the Mafia's ability to figure out who the Night Watchman is. Given their ability to recruit, however, it made sense to put an additional role or two in there whose presence would serve the hamper the Mafia's efforts.

Like I said, I'm interested to see how it works out. It may be that we decide that neither role should ever be repeated in future games, at least as they're currently described.

I do like your proposed twists; I think they'd make a fascinating game in their own right.

[MadTheSwine]

For the Night Watchman, I would make the locations matter more. Maybe make some sort of system whereby the players have to publicly declare where they will be that night, and then the Watchman has to make his choice.

Now you'd have to make sure that they don't break the system by everyone going to one place and having the watchman always protect that place. So there would have to be some limit on how many people fit in one place, which would have to be based somehow on the number of remaining players, lest the limit become obsolete when the number of players drops.

Make a Fire Marshall Role :p

[Autolycus]

Aaaaaand she's off!

[sachertorte]

I can't believe that of all the things SDMB offers me, it is this game that finally gets me to register (subscription to occur later tonight).

Anyway, I'm glad you guys started a new game. I very much enjoy reading the game threads and watching what happens. I don't really know why, but I find the whole thing facinating.

As for this latest iteration, here are my comments (comments, not criticism!):

I like the nightwatchman. Totally random, yes, but adds nice flavor without impacting the balance too much.

I don't think I like the recruitment idea as much. I think the ability is too powerful. Clearly, the optimal use of the recruitment is to wait until the second to last mafia gets lynched, then that night the final mafia recruits. Since the mafia obviously won't recruit a dead person, delaying recruitment as long as possible essentially assures the safety of the recruit until recruited. (Did that make sense?) In otherwords, the best thing for the mafia to do is to wait as long as possible to recruit, but there is no balancing effect to push the mafia towards needing to recruit earlier. If instead the ability to recruit was tied to a specific mafia player, then there would be better balance as the mafia would need to consider the possiblity of that player not surviving to the next night. So they must consider, recruit now and possibly have the recruit lynched by the town? or delay and possibly lose the ability to recruit if the recruiter gets killed?

I also think recruitment has a large variance in the game. Presumably the game is balanced in number of mafia to account for the recruitment ability, if the mafia recruits the do-gooder, then they are pretty much screwed. If the mafia recruit a mason, the town is pretty much screwed. Very wide variance in the application of this ability. I'd hate to see the game won or lost simply by who the mafia end up targetting with recruitment.

Finally, recruitment changes the win condition of a player. I'd be annoyed if I was rooting out mafia, playing a really good game, and about to win the game only to be recruited near the end and wind up losing because of it.

I find the entire topic of this game's design and balance to be rather facinating, so please forgive the overanalysis.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. It will be interesting to see how the whole thing pans out. And I'm happy that there are no beat cops!

[chrisk]

I don't think I like the recruitment idea as much. I think the ability is too powerful. Clearly, the optimal use of the recruitment is to wait until the second to last mafia gets lynched, then that night the final mafia recruits. Since the mafia obviously won't recruit a dead person, delaying recruitment as long as possible essentially assures the safety of the recruit until recruited. (Did that make sense?) In otherwords, the best thing for the mafia to do is to wait as long as possible to recruit, but there is no balancing effect to push the mafia towards needing to recruit earlier. If instead the ability to recruit was tied to a specific mafia player, then there would be better balance as the mafia would need to consider the possiblity of that player not surviving to the next night. So they must consider, recruit now and possibly have the recruit lynched by the town? or delay and possibly lose the ability to recruit if the recruiter gets killed?

I also think recruitment has a large variance in the game. Presumably the game is balanced in number of mafia to account for the recruitment ability, if the mafia recruits the do-gooder, then they are pretty much screwed. If the mafia recruit a mason, the town is pretty much screwed. Very wide variance in the application of this ability. I'd hate to see the game won or lost simply by who the mafia end up targetting with recruitment.

Finally, recruitment changes the win condition of a player. I'd be annoyed if I was rooting out mafia, playing a really good game, and about to win the game only to be recruited near the end and wind up losing because of it.


Good idea about only one player (the Godfather) being able to recruit. From what I understand, that is the major balance factor in vampire theme games, where recruitment is the usual night activity, instead of night kills by the scum.

You start off with a vampire king, (maybe with a few guards to start with,) and the king can turn one townsperson to the vampires each night. However, once the king is staked, the vampires cannot increase their number or harm the townspeople at night.

I do agree with your analysis about delaying recruitment, and will add another detail - the longer the mafia wait, the more opportunities there are for 'known town' of hopefully non-do-gooder status to be exposed.

Then, the family can recruit one of them, and hopefully the new convert won't be suspected much until it's too late.

[MadTheSwine]

Am I missing something or wouldn't it be best for the Mafia to recruit every time?

[Gadarene]

Thanks for the thoughts, sachertorte. And thanks for registering! Welcome aboard.

I've got to jet at the moment, so I can't respond in as detailed a manner as I'd like. I agree with you that recruitment is potentially very powerful, which is why I tried to counterbalance it at least a little bit with the Do-Gooders. And you're right that it might be unsettling for someone to get recruited and have their win condition change. Because of those and other considerations, it's certainly possible that putting recruitment into a game is, on balance, a bad idea. Which is why I'm so interested to see how this goes. :) I did have one question for you, though. You say:

If the mafia recruit a mason, the town is pretty much screwed.

Why is that so? It seems like it doesn't give the Mafia much of a leg up, does it? It narrows down their potential targets for power roles, I suppose, but is it that damaging to the prospects of the town?

Also, it's interesting that the posters have pretty well unanimously so far agreed that lynching nobody on the first day is a very bad idea. I don't know if I agree with that, given that statistically speaking you're far more likely to lynch a townie than a Mafia with so little information. If I was the Town in a game like this, I'd FOS a bunch of people during Day One while keeping the prospect of lynching on the table, and then ultimately lynch no one and wait to see what the Mafia does during the night. Then you've got a bunch of information out there from the Day One suspicions, but only one townie dead rather than (probably) two...and a whole 'nother day in which your initial suspicions can be validated or otherwise bear fruit. Does that make any sense, or is lynching no one really as bad a play as everyone assumes it is?

[chrisk]

Am I missing something or wouldn't it be best for the Mafia to recruit every time?

They can't. It's a one-time option. If they've recruited once already in the game, (or tried to,) then they can't do it again.

[Gadarene]

MadTheSwine:
Am I missing something or wouldn't it be best for the Mafia to recruit every time?

It's a one time only shot, even if it fails.

chrisk:
I do agree with your analysis about delaying recruitment, and will add another detail - the longer the mafia wait, the more opportunities there are for 'known town' of hopefully non-do-gooder status to be exposed.

Then, the family can recruit one of them, and hopefully the new convert won't be suspected much until it's too late.

Yeah, I think that's right. Of course, if they get a bead on someone they think has a power role---specifically the Doctor or the Detective---they should recruit them as soon as possible to minimize the damage they can do.

[chrisk]

Also, it's interesting that the posters have pretty well unanimously so far agreed that lynching nobody on the first day is a very bad idea. I don't know if I agree with that, given that statistically speaking you're far more likely to lynch a townie than a Mafia with so little information. If I was the Town in a game like this, I'd FOS a bunch of people during Day One while keeping the prospect of lynching on the table, and then ultimately lynch no one and wait to see what the Mafia does during the night. Then you've got a bunch of information out there from the Day One suspicions, but only one townie dead rather than (probably) two...and a whole 'nother day in which your initial suspicions can be validated or otherwise bear fruit. Does that make any sense, or is lynching no one really as bad a play as everyone assumes it is?

I think that the 'accepted wisdom' among mafia circles is that this sort of tactic is of limited usefulness, because getting information from the dialog and the FOS-ing is all so very subjective. Killing someone and finding out for sure what their role is is hard intel, no matter how much it costs the town to acquire.

Or that's how I understand it.

[MadTheSwine]

They can't. It's a one-time option. If they've recruited once already in the game, (or tried to,) then they can't do it again.


Ok,so I guess I was missing something then.

[chrisk]

chrisk:


Yeah, I think that's right. Of course, if they get a bead on someone they think has a power role---specifically the Doctor or the Detective---they should recruit them as soon as possible to minimize the damage they can do.

Hmm... interesting point. Also prompts a question:

If a power role is recruited, do they lose that special status in the process of becoming 'full-fledged Mafia'? Of course, the doctor working for the mafia doesn't make much sense without a SK running around - but I love the idea of a detective using his investigations on behalf of the godfather. :D

Probably that'd be too unbalancing, and thus he'd lose his special role powers.

[sachertorte]

I believe (and it is only a belief) that masons are pretty much unlynchable. Masons are the easiest "living confirmed town" in the game. The only time a mason gets lynched is when there is a counter-claim. If the mafia recruits a mason, the town will not lynch the mason because the other masons will confim masonhood. Of course the town knows that the masons could have been recruited, but there is no way to know that a mason was recruited or which one. The town will be in a very difficult place if a mason gets recruited. What is worse, as we have seen in both previous games, outing a mason will happen at some point. The mafia will clearly have the opportunity to recruit a known mason, and I'm guessing that the set of masons and the set of do-gooders have a null intersection.

Oooh, that might have been a better balance, get rid of do-gooders and just make masons unrecruitable.

[Gadarene]

Probably that'd be too unbalancing, and thus he'd lose his special role powers.

If it is too unbalancing, I guess we'll find out, 'cause the way I've got it working he retains his role powers and becomes corrupt. :D

I think that the 'accepted wisdom' among mafia circles is that this sort of tactic is of limited usefulness, because getting information from the dialog and the FOS-ing is all so very subjective. Killing someone and finding out for sure what their role is is hard intel, no matter how much it costs the town to acquire.

True, but the information gained from the dialogue and the FOS-ing can come in real handy later, once people start getting killed. Of course, if the Mafia don't actually believe that anyone will be lynched the first day, they have no reason to say anything that's of any value anyway, so maybe that threat needs to be there regardless.

[Gadarene]

Oooh, that might have been a better balance, get rid of do-gooders and just make masons unrecruitable.

Not a bad idea, actually.

I believe (and it is only a belief) that masons are pretty much unlynchable. Masons are the easiest "living confirmed town" in the game. The only time a mason gets lynched is when there is a counter-claim. If the mafia recruits a mason, the town will not lynch the mason because the other masons will confim masonhood.

While these are excellent points, I think that masons might be more hesitant to confirm masonhood in a game like this where the masons themselves have a separate win condition. That is, let's say there are four masons and one gets outed or is forced to roleclaim...the other three have a strong-ish motivation to keep silent, in the hopes that they'll be able to outnumber the town in the end. So maybe a stealth Mafia mason isn't necessarily a disaster for the town...and the possibility of it happening breeds even more distrust and paranoia, which is always fun. :)

[sachertorte]

My thoughts on non-lynching:

My take is that early in the game no-lynch is bad, but later in the game it might make sense. The mafia win then the number of mafia is greater or equal to the number of townies. The game can therefore end in these ways:

1) N_TOWN = N_MAFIA + 2 and the town lynches a townie and the mafia sucessfully kill at night
2) N_TOWN = N_MAFIA + 1 and the town lynches a townie

If we ignore the possiblity that the mafia might fail to kill at night, then a town facing situation 1 could very well benefit from not lynching forcing the mafia to do their endgame kill first (thus revealing additional information) and then the town is shifted to situation 2 where they still have to lynch mafia or lose the game but have one less suspect and additional information.

Of course at that point the mafia would nightkill a confirmed townie if available, but if no one was confirmed, then it becomes a viable plan.

[sachertorte]

I think that masons might be more hesitant to confirm masonhood in a game like this where the masons themselves have a separate win condition.

I had completely forgotten about the mason win condition. But isn't the mason win only exclusive when the masons win? That is, the mason can share a town win, but win alone with a mason win. What was your thinking in implementing that asymmetry?

I think that if the masons can win with the town, then they should do so. Going for a mason-only win is more risky and there isn't sufficient reward. If the mason and town were completely exclusive, then I'd agree that the masons would be in a weird situation.

There's so much stuff I want to see play out!

[Gadarene]

I think that if the masons can win with the town, then they should do so. Going for a mason-only win is more risky and there isn't sufficient reward. If the mason and town were completely exclusive, then I'd agree that the masons would be in a weird situation.

Hmm. That's a good point. I'm not sure why I made the masons able to share a win with the town; I guess I didn't want them to be completely anti-town as well as anti-mafia, but maybe that balance would be built in regardless. (By which I mean, the masons have an incentive to assist the town in eradicating Mafia whether or not their win condition is exclusive, because if the Mafia win everyone else loses.)

This is the one thing, upon reflection, that I'd prefer to change about the current game if I could. But it's already started (although in very early stages), so that would probably be inappropriate. Wouldn't it?

There's so much stuff I want to see play out!

Me too! :)

[sachertorte]

This is the one thing, upon reflection, that I'd prefer to change about the current game if I could.

I'm not sure what you are proposing about changing the game, so I can't really comment on its merits. I suppose if you analyze the situation and find that the game is broken without a rules change, then you are justified (obligated even) in making the change, especially since it is still early in day one. By day two, you'd be pretty stuck.

I say 'obligated' because the players invest quite a bit of time into the game, so if you see something clearly broken, then you should fix it. Small changes this early in the game that don't have an effect on how a player should have been playing so far should be okay. Plus you're the mod-god.

I'm not sure if the mason thing qualifies as clearly broken though. What change would you make if you made one?

[Gadarene]

I'm not sure if the mason thing qualifies as clearly broken though. What change would you make if you made one?

Oh, I was thinking of making the mason win condition exclusive...so that the masons only win (and the town loses) if they outnumber the town once the Mafia have been eliminated. But upon reflection, I like it the way I've set it up. Doing it that way means that the town has to worry about Masons just as much as it has to worry about Mafia, and I'm not quite sure I want to go that far into setting up three competing camps just yet. So no rules change forthcoming, although I wouldn't mind trying an exclusive mason win condition in a future game.

[sachertorte]

I think your decision is a good one. While I too would like to see how a third (exclusive) win condition would affect the game, you'd really have to do some serious analysis to determine game balance. As it is will probably be fine as the masons will recognize that a town win is a win. I don't think anyone there will get greedy.

[Queuing]

FWIW, I like the rules in this game. I am glad there is no single killer out there. It seems that the beat cop role is taking a lot of flack but I don't mind the role. People just think to much about it IMO. The correctness of the beat cop only matters when it gets to the end game I think. The SK is just impossible to tell who it is. But enough of that. The night watchman idea is a very interesting one, and my favourite addition to this game. I think it sounds like a nice little change to the game, making it harder for the mafia to get a kill, but not exceptionally so.

Plus I am glad my thread won. Now I get to have started a hopefully long thread! Take that MTS!

[sachertorte]

This morning I thought about the asymmetry (Town v. Masons) and realized that the setup is nice to inspire discussion and argument. At some point, I expect the town to have a discussion about the win conditions and masons. Perhaps someone will suggest lynching a mason (I can only hope!) and then there will be a wonderful firestorm about win conditions and scummy behavior and masons and fun fun fun.

I'm liking the quirky mason win condition more and more.

[Gadarene]

I'm liking the quirky mason win condition more and more.

Excellent. :cool:

[Scuba_Ben]

This is my first time paying attention to a Werewolf / Mafia game.

It seems to me that the Masons' win condition creates a conflict: They can only win if the Mafia are eliminated, but they also have to eliminate Citizens as they go. Which means the Masons would want to lynch Citizens, without drawing excessive suspicion to themselves, or they might get counter-lynched as suspected Mafia.

But the Citizens don't gain anything by lynching Masons -- doing so helps the Mafia instead!

I'm wondering if we can give this game a try at the next Gettysdope, if there's anybody there who can GM the game.

[Gadarene]

They can only win if the Mafia are eliminated, but they also have to eliminate Citizens as they go.

I don't think they necessarily need to eliminate citizens. They just need to lie low so that they can't be identified.

[sachertorte]

I loved the pre-game discussion. Now we should get to see if our theories will play out.

What should we call the players? I'm tempted to call them hampsters, because I have this image of a group of hampsters in a cage playing mafia for me to watch and enjoy.

Seems like a pretty slow start to the game. No one wants to drive a bandwagon, and no one is willing to drive a fake bandwagon either. I think everyone is terrified of looking like scum. What do you think would be a good way for a hampster to start the game. The temptation is to just sit back and watch, some have even mentioned a wait and see attitude. I wonder what a good way to get discussion going is. They only have a few days to get their act together, and right now they aren't generating much information at all.

I think the group is falling into the same trap as game 2. They aren't willing to act without information, but they aren't really seeking out information either. Once the first bit of information falls out, they will all pounce on that one bit and feel like their job is done. maybe that's just the way day one always goes.

[Gadarene]

What do you think would be a good way for a hampster to start the game.

I think the only thing you can do (assuming you're a townie or want to appear that way) is generate discussion to try and get people to say who they suspect and, more importantly, who they don't suspect. I don't think that anything anyone says is really going to help on Day One, but it will bear fruit further down the line.

I'll tell you, too, that if I'm ever Mafia, I'm going to strongly consider voting for a fellow Mafia member during Day One in order to muddle up future analysis of voting patterns. Feel free to use that against me. :)

Anyone getting any scumdar hits so far?

[MadTheSwine]

Plus I am glad my thread won. Now I get to have started a hopefully long thread! Take that MTS!

I'm thinking you made Frank an offer he couldn't refuse. I will not be making your thread longer!

I will not post in this thread :smack:

I will not post in this thread :smack:

I will not post in this thread :smack:



damn


Maybe I am just anxious to play again,but doesn't a 96 hour day seem a bit long?

[Gadarene]

Maybe I am just anxious to play again,but doesn't a 96 hour day seem a bit long?

Days are 120 hours long in the second Mafia game. :)

[sachertorte]

I think the hardest part about this game is everyone comes in from a different point of view and worse, some players don't really understand that certain actions are very bad for the town. In game 2, I was convinced that cowgirl (first incarnation) and Winston Smith were scum based on their votes to lynch on the first day which ended the day. But they were both town! They honestly were just trying to move along the game.

I like the current discussion about random voting. One thing no one has said is that mafia votes are not random, and even if someone says they used random.org, it doesn't mean they really did.

So far, I'd say that Blaster Master is playing consistently with how he played in game 2 -- good hampster.

The ones who mentioned no lynch as an option, bad hampster.

[sachertorte]

I admit to not having seen this particular rule set before, where the masons are apparently set to lose if townwins.


It looks like the town is not understanding the mason's win condition. Ha! Fun! Not only don't they not understand it, the one person (Kyrie) who seems to understand it is getting flack for talking about it!

I don't know why this amuses me so.

Of course, if I were in the game, I'd probably be getting strung up for yakking about Masons too.

[Frank]

I'm thinking you made Frank an offer he couldn't refuse.
Yes, well, the large package of small unmarked bills has not arrived yet. Your thread may yet live again!

;)

[MadTheSwine]

Yes, well, the large package of small unmarked bills has not arrived yet. Your thread may yet live again!

;)


HAHA! Take that Q-ball!



Damn :smack:

[Gadarene]

There's some hardcore analysis going on during Day One this time around! It's fun to watch. And the voting could hardly be more spread out.

[Queuing]

HAHA! Take that Q-ball!



Damn :smack:

Jealousy does not become you MTS. :)

[Gadarene]

Any last minute predictions, now that it looks likely that percypercy will be the first lynchee?

[sachertorte]

Wow.
Quite frankly, I'm shocked.
I'm shocked that the town shifted its target from Lightin' to someone else. I was sure that the town would lock onto one suspicious person and not let go. It is good that the town has the flexibility to shift targets, but shifting the shift happened with very little time for anyone to react, respond, or think carefully about what was happening.

I'm not so shocked that percypercy is town. Not that I had a good read either way, but the reasoning for lynching percypercy seemed really thin to me.

I also think that the shift to percypercy gives the town more information than if they just lynched lightin' without further discussion. Now the town gets to look at who instigated the shift and fun stuff like that.

[Gadarene]

I will say that with one notable exception, I think the Mafia's played superbly so far.

[percypercy]

Can I get a hug please? They're so mean over there. I'm gonna hang out in the loser's lounge and watch the game unfold now.
-Lil

[Gadarene]

Hugs to percypercy.

So what're your thoughts, NAF? :)

[NAF1138]

Hugs to percypercy.

So what're your thoughts, NAF? :)

I think Lighnin' is scum. I think Idle Thoughts is likely scum and possibly Fluiddruid as well.

I also think they missed their chance to pick me up as a recruit. I could have been a great help to them since I think my first day put me firmly on (almost) everyones town list.


Also, did I call it or what? Got killed so fast it would make your head spin.

(I told Gad when he PM'd me my role that I would be one of the fist to die, since I almost always am when I am vanilla.)

also, what's up with this thread being so inactive? Come on people, this is a good game. Lets get some sideline action going on!

[NAF1138]

Oh, and Projammer too. Totally scum.

[NAF1138]

I just went back and actually read your death scene for me Gad. Hats off to you sir, that was a fine piece of writing. I actually had to keep my self from laughing out loud at the bit about mumbling to himself about monkeys etc and calling out "the pages! the pages!"

Nicley done.

[sachertorte]

I disagree with the assertion that mafia should have recruited you, NAF. The correct mafia play is to recruit the night after the second to last mafia get lynched. (Or if recruiting wins the game, whichever comes first). By delaying the recruiting, the mafia doesn't have to worry about their recruit getting lynched. Also, they should want to recruit a confirmed mason.

[NAF1138]

I disagree with the assertion that mafia should have recruited you, NAF. The correct mafia play is to recruit the night after the second to last mafia get lynched. (Or if recruiting wins the game, whichever comes first). By delaying the recruiting, the mafia doesn't have to worry about their recruit getting lynched. Also, they should want to recruit a confirmed mason.

I know you are right intellectually. But emotionally, I wanted to keep playingthink they made the wrong call. Call it a gut instinct that if they had recruited me, they would have won. :D

[percypercy]

I'm enjoying being the first off a hell of a lot more than I probably should. Now I'll just sit back and watch.
-Lil

[sachertorte]

DiggitCamara said:

In my last post on sunday I refrained from unvoting percypercy (whom I still suspected, albeit ontly in the 3rd position) because my number one spot (Lightnin' ) seemed to head for the gallows

DiggitCamara seems very defensive of his vote for percypercy, oddly so. He defends himself by saying that Lightnin' was his top candidate for scum, but didn't change his vote from percypercy to Lightnin' because it looked like Lightnin' was already headed to the lynch. This doesn't make any sense. Why vote for someone other than who he most thought was scum?
As scum, not voting for the lynch is a good idea as to avoid suspicion. I think DiggitCamara thought Lightnin' was going to be lynched by the town and purposefully avoided voting for Lightnin'.
Bad coverup, but it doesn't look like anyone in the game is as suspicious as me. Oh well.

My conclusion:
Lightnin' (town)
DiggitCamara (scum)

[NAF1138]

Had to go ahead and respond to this part. I'll address the rest with a more detailed posting when I get the chance. Not a slow day at work today.

If any of them are betting that I'm mafia, go ahead and take their money.

This is the kind of thing ONLY a scum would say. Anyone else wouldn't even think about it.

Projammer is such scum. And if Projammer is scum I think Fluiddruid is scum as well.

So that is 2 down. 2(?) to still find.

[sachertorte]

I agree that Projammer's latest post is cloyingly screaming "Look at me, I'm town!" Wasn't there a discussion about this type of behavior during day one? Someone using the phrase "us townies" or something like that? Who was that?

I think the town is being too focused on vote history right now. There isn't enough vote history and confirmed information to make assessments based on votes; that should come later. Right now, they should concentrate on behavior, and vote reasoning.

[NAF1138]

I totally agree. I am wondering if that isn't part of the reason why I was killed, because I was suspicious of people for the way they behaved even though there wasn't a vote history to go off. I think maybe I hit a bit too close to the mark on a couple of my accusations.

[sachertorte]

The reasoning of some players is totally orthogonal to my own.
Lightnin' writes of dnooman:

However, I think it's still suspicious that you were on my bandwagon when it looked like I was going to be lynched, and then when the tide swung percypercy's direction and it looked like I wasn't going to be swinging, you hopped onto the next easiest person to frame.


I'm of the opinion that mafia will avoid bandwagons like the plague. I don't think mafia would behave as dnooman did. Many seem to be looking for explicit actions that are scummy rather than looking at subtle mistakes like...

Hal Briston wrote:

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong here, but this reads to me like dnooman knows exactly how many players are scum, no?

Perhaps I'm reading this completely wrong, but it seems to me like he just slipped and stated that there are four scum players. Am I missing something with this?


I hope HB really presses that point. It is a good one, much better than attacking based on vote switches.

[Gadarene]

The interesting thing is that reading the Mafia III thread with perfect information, I'm noticing a lot of things about the posting patterns (and style) of the Mafia and such that will help me out immensely the next time I'm a player. :)

[sachertorte]

NAF, you must be happy with the current Projammer bandwagon. I know you think he is scum; how did you reach this conclusion?

The fact that NAF and percypercy voted for Projammer isn't helping, but I don't really see that as a good reason for or against a Projammer lynch.

Why do you think the mafia picked NAF last night?
Town consensus seems to be because of perceived experience. I'm wondering if there was anything that made them think Cop. I'm guessing no, since there was no night yet.

Also, I recall NAF mentioning certain behaviors he saw that matched scum behavior in Game 2 (a game where NAF had the benefit of both watching and knowing all roles). At the time I thought this was rather unfair... for Game 2, since someone in game 2 could have read NAF's post and appiled that slip of information to game 2. I guess Projammer really is scum then, eh? The ability of NAF to see things in game 2 and apply them to game 3 would be a strong reason to kill him off early. Now the question is will the town lynch or shoot off on someone random again.

[sachertorte]

The interesting thing is that reading the Mafia III thread with perfect information, I'm noticing a lot of things about the posting patterns (and style) of the Mafia and such that will help me out immensely the next time I'm a player. :)

I was writing my analysis of NAF's nightkill when you posted. Unfortunately, I think if you play again soon, you'll meet the same fate as NAF. :(

[NAF1138]

I wasn't too worried about the game 2 people catching on, because the people that made those slips are already dead, actually one of them was nesta who was killed by the SK in my game for making such a slip.

I do think Projammer is scum, I also think that I called out at least one other scum in my FOS (I strongly feel that it was fluiddruid), but I can't be really sure. I think its funny that they killed me because of my experiance with the game though. I am far from the best player in this game, I just was the only one shouting loud enough to get myself killed. Blaster Master, Dnooman, nesta all of them are more dangerous players than I am. And I don't think any of them are mafia. Maybe BM, but I am not sure.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how it plays out. It would be nice to actually get to play a game next time around.

[Gadarene]

I was writing my analysis of NAF's nightkill when you posted. Unfortunately, I think if you play again soon, you'll meet the same fate as NAF.

Probably so. But then maybe the memory of my knowledge will fade, and in the meantime I've fashioned several off-the-cuff rules for detecting Mafia behavior in the early days. Somewhat paradoxically, the rules only work if the Mafia are both intelligent and good players, as they surely are in this current game.

No comment on your other post, by the way. :)

[NAF1138]

The interesting thing is that reading the Mafia III thread with perfect information, I'm noticing a lot of things about the posting patterns (and style) of the Mafia and such that will help me out immensely the next time I'm a player. :)


It is interesting to see both sides play out isn't it? Running a game is so much fun. Watching this one start makes me want to start another when mine is over. It is a blast.

[NAF1138]

Probably so. But then maybe the memory of my knowledge will fade, and in the meantime I've fashioned several off-the-cuff rules for detecting Mafia behavior in the early days. Somewhat paradoxically, the rules only work if the Mafia are both intelligent and good players, as they surely are in this current game.

No comment on your other post, by the way. :)


Out of curiostity, what rules have you come up with?

Also, I think I would now make a killer mafia player. Watching my mafia, seeing what is working and what isn't has given me a really good idea as to what I should do when I play.

[Gadarene]

Out of curiostity, what rules have you come up with?

I'm not gonna say publicly, on the off-chance that current players are (impermissibly) reading this thread. Let me finish the section of the opinion that I'm currently drafting, and I'll PM you about it this afternoon.

It boils down to essentially sitting back and letting the Town tear into each other. Certain posters are conspicuously doing that, if you know what to look for.

Watching my mafia, seeing what is working and what isn't has given me a really good idea as to what I should do when I play.

Exactly.

[Gadarene]

And I'll tell you one thing. If I knew then what I know now about Mafia strategy and such, there's no way in the world I would have made such a mess of Day Two of your game, NAF, by stubbornly going after the voting bloc of zuma, Pleonast, sturmhauke, and Blaster Master (townies all). The complexion of that entire game would have changed if it had come after this current one. :)

[Scuba_Ben]

Since I've never played one of these games, I'd like to know some general strategy ideas. So far, the best I've figured out is "Suspecting someone of being a bad guy is, itself, grounds for suspicion of being a bad guy." :confused:

[NAF1138]

Thats why I played the way I did in this one. I figured I would die fast, so I wanted to try and keep the townies from falling into the same traps the townies in my game fell into. Looking for the wrong clues etc. I think I succeeded to a small degree because I got people off the idea that the first day is all random and we started actually getting some analysis going on. Unfortunatly I think that is the only thing that I was able to give them. But maybe it was enough.

[sachertorte]

No comment on your other post, by the way. :)

Well, that's no fun.
But I understand.

I'll just have to wait for more dead townies to talk to.

I think it would be fun to be the SK or Vig. They can follow hunches without having to publicly state suspicions and garner significant support for those suspicions. Much easier to take things into ones own hands and just off the suspicious in the night. Game 2 SK did (is doing?) very well.

[NAF1138]

Well, that's no fun.
But I understand.

I'll just have to wait for more dead townies to talk to.

I think it would be fun to be the SK or Vig. They can follow hunches without having to publicly state suspicions and garner significant support for those suspicions. Much easier to take things into ones own hands and just off the suspicious in the night. Game 2 SK did (is doing?) very well.


Is doing. I think he is going to win it all, personally.

[sachertorte]

This question may make me look like scum, but I hope it will be taken in the spirit in which it is asked; lack of knowledge of the strategy of the game. If a player about to go under the noose claims Mason, is it in the best interests of the Masons for one of them to defend him? Or would that depend on how far along the game is? I can see that Masons would not want a fellow Mason lynched, but defending him would out him as definitely town (therefore an easy fit for concrete shoes) and would also out the defending player as town (if he/she is believed) and and make it more likely for the defender to get a one way trip to the bottom of the bay with no scuba gear. (Does this town have a bay?)

Hello Mason!

[Gadarene]

Hello Mason!

See, this is why I think we all (myself included) tend to underestimate the intelligence and skill of the people playing the game. I'll say this: none of the masons in the current game have been unsubtle enough to post anything resembling SnakeCatLady's question above. :) Ditto for the Mafia, who've done a great job for the most part not being on any bandwagons or drawing any lingering, unfavorable attention to themselves so far.

If anything is off about the Mafia's posts, it's that they're generally not quite so analysis-heavy as to fall into the category of "noticeably helpful posts," while not quite so fluff-heavy as to fall into the category of "personality-driven posts." They're aiming for that middle ground a bit too much,

[sachertorte]

It is very difficult to get a sense of of the experience level of anyone, and I have to wonder why someone would jump out and ask mason strategy questions if they are not a mason. But your point makes sense (and is driven by perfect knowledge of the game). If anything, a mason would do everything possible not to mention the m-word. But I still don't see why she would bring up the mason thing at all.

I'm learning so much!

If it is true that mafia ends up just sitting back and watching, then these games are going to get boring real fast. I think it would be fun (and entirely inappropriate) to stack a game with an extra mafia and mod-kill the least active one just to make a point.

Role: sacrifical lamb (mafia)
You are a sacrifical lamb. You are restricted to 5 posts in day one. After Day one you will be mod-killed, sorry.

[Gadarene]

If it is true that mafia ends up just sitting back and watching, then these games are going to get boring real fast.

I didn't say that they're just sitting back and watching. :)

At any rate, I hope you're going to play in the inevitable Mafia IV, sachertorte!

[sachertorte]

So essentially the town mistake is not giving proper attention to thinking about how mafia would play. I guess everything will even out when most players have had a chance to play the game as mafia. So somewhere around game IX?

I wonder why game 1 worked out so well for the town.
My guess: RevenantThreshold's (?) game rules required a (near) majority vote to instigate an end of day countdown! He started with 21 and required 8 votes to start the clock. 8/21 = 38 percent

Game Two had 40 players and 10 to lynch (first day was 10 votes = immediate lynch). Yikes! That was so bad for the town it wasn't funny. Even if there were a clock, 10 of 40 is a mere 25% of town.

I think the time limited days rather than majority vote in the last two games have been very bad for the town.

percypercy died based on six votes! 6/20 = 30 percent of players... I think that is way too low.

I guess what I'm trying to say is by having a game mechanic that requires votes rather than time to move the game along is necesssary to save the town from itself. It also forces the mafia to participate more openly since they can't just wait out the clock. Look at all the players who said something on the lines of, 'well it was clear to me that _______ was going to get lynched so I didn't bother to change my vote.' Bad, bad, bad.
To get someone lynched more people need to vote and more people need to agree on who to lynch. Days would be longer though; day one in game one lasted a week.

Can you tell I love talking about game mechanics more than the game itself?

[Gadarene]

So essentially the town mistake is not giving proper attention to thinking about how mafia would play.

Well-said.

[NAF1138]

So essentially the town mistake is not giving proper attention to thinking about how mafia would play. I guess everything will even out when most players have had a chance to play the game as mafia. So somewhere around game IX?

I wonder why game 1 worked out so well for the town.
My guess: RevenantThreshold's (?) game rules required a (near) majority vote to instigate an end of day countdown! He started with 21 and required 8 votes to start the clock. 8/21 = 38 percent

Game Two had 40 players and 10 to lynch (first day was 10 votes = immediate lynch). Yikes! That was so bad for the town it wasn't funny. Even if there were a clock, 10 of 40 is a mere 25% of town.

I think the time limited days rather than majority vote in the last two games have been very bad for the town.

percypercy died based on six votes! 6/20 = 30 percent of players... I think that is way too low.

I guess what I'm trying to say is by having a game mechanic that requires votes rather than time to move the game along is necesssary to save the town from itself. It also forces the mafia to participate more openly since they can't just wait out the clock. Look at all the players who said something on the lines of, 'well it was clear to me that _______ was going to get lynched so I didn't bother to change my vote.' Bad, bad, bad.
To get someone lynched more people need to vote and more people need to agree on who to lynch. Days would be longer though; day one in game one lasted a week.

Can you tell I love talking about game mechanics more than the game itself?

I agree that majority vote being the only way to end the day is best. The next game I run I will do it this way. Majority is hit, day ends instantly, no countdown clock nonsense.

[sachertorte]

I agree that majority vote being the only way to end the day is best. The next game I run I will do it this way. Majority is hit, day ends instantly, no countdown clock nonsense.

Yay! I feel all warm and fuzzy.
Of course I bet I'll be in that game and be... mafia :smack:

[Czarcasm]

Moving thread from IMHO to MPSIMS.

[sachertorte]

Omi no Kami is advocating the logic that Gadarene suggests, think like mafia and recognize that they purposefully won't bandwagon and stick out in any way.

prediction: Omi no Kami (town)

[Scuba_Ben]

So dnooman went down in a moderate bandwagon.

Does anybody believe Projammer's claim of being a Do-gooder?

[Dragoness]

Well, it looks like these games will finally drag me out of many-year lurker status and make me renew. This one sure has been painful... I feel bad for Town. Y'all in this thread keep saying the Mafia are obvious, but I'm not seeing it- sure, I have suspicions, but I wouldn't lay money on any of them. But Town just seems to be... floundering.

dnooman, if you drop by here, so sorry. Tough break. Your appeals to emotion and "I want to be a martyr!" thing didn't help much, but I was convinced scum wouldn't have behaved the way you did. Like both Gadarene and Sachertorte said, it seems like the players aren't paying enough attention to how Mafia would act.

So, not knowing this game, do the Townies have much chance now that three Town are down and they don't know any power roles and don't have anyone confirmed Town or Mafia? Speaking of which, isn't role-claiming as a do-gooder a truly stupid thing that helps the Town not at all? After all, do-gooders have no value to the Town, can't be confirmed, and can't provide information... having a Do-Gooder outed does nothing but hurt the Town. I think Projammer's move was either scummy or incredibly poorly thought-out... but I don't know which!

I desperately want to get in on the next game, even if I'd be lynched for a lurker right away.

[sachertorte]

Scuba Ben, I thought Projammer's claim of do gooder should have clinched his lynching. There is absolutely no reason to claim do gooder, such a claim only helps scum. I can't believe the town let him get away with that.

Dragoness, if we assume the town started with 4 mafia and assume that a successful recruiting will occur at some point, the game ends after 'first to five,' that is, five scum lynches wins for the town and five innocent lynches win for the mafia. (This analysis assumes sucessful kills each night.) So each daytime lynch is a best of 9 game, with the first to five winning. 0-2 isn't a terribly bad place to be, the town is in its worst predicament at the beginning of the game when there is no information. Hopefully the town cop is gathering useful information as well. It's not over for the town yet.

(If the town started with 5 mafia + 1 recruit, the game would end with four innocent lynches or 6 mafia lynches
If the town started with 3 mafia + 1 recruit, the game would end with six innocent lynches and 4 mafia lynches)

I was really hoping Projammer would have gotten lynched. NAF is so certain of Projammer being scum. dnooman went down with 5 votes; that's 5/18... 28% of the town, even less than the percypercy vote. Not only does the town lose on the lynch, but they gain so little information only 5 people voted for him. They could all very well be town! There's no reason for mafia to even try lynching someone. All they have to do is wait for the day to end and a whopping 25-30 percent of the town will decide who gets it.

[sachertorte]

I was thinking about how important the cop is to the town right now, and I just realised that with the recruitment ability the cop can't claim. Normally, after the cop gathers a few nights of information, the cop claims and reveals the information to the town. With recruitment, this can't happen anymore. Well, it can, but the cop will get recuited the next night and the doctor can't prevent it from happening. That kind of sucks.

Thinking about the cop got me to wondering what the best play for the cop is. I think the best way to win for the cop (at this point now that the town is down 0-2 in lynchings, and assuming the doctor survives the night) is for the cop to roleclaim on day 3, reveal cleverly false information to the town, and expect to get recruited the next night. Wow, that would really suck for the town.

Anyone have pro-town strategies for the cop in the face of recruitment? I can't think of any.

[NAF1138]

I was thinking about how important the cop is to the town right now, and I just realised that with the recruitment ability the cop can't claim. Normally, after the cop gathers a few nights of information, the cop claims and reveals the information to the town. With recruitment, this can't happen anymore. Well, it can, but the cop will get recuited the next night and the doctor can't prevent it from happening. That kind of sucks.

Thinking about the cop got me to wondering what the best play for the cop is. I think the best way to win for the cop (at this point now that the town is down 0-2 in lynchings, and assuming the doctor survives the night) is for the cop to roleclaim on day 3, reveal cleverly false information to the town, and expect to get recruited the next night. Wow, that would really suck for the town.

Anyone have pro-town strategies for the cop in the face of recruitment? I can't think of any.
This is why I don't like recruiting roles, they are too unpredictable to keep a proper game balance, and balancing the game is hard enough.

Also, I think thr dogooder should be auto lynched the seconf they claim. There is no way to test the role and by claiming they make themselves worthless. It is worse than claiming vanilla.

Projammer is such scum. Rough coin toss for the town

[Dragoness]

Anyone have pro-town strategies for the cop in the face of recruitment? I can't think of any.

Wow, that's harsh. I was also thinking along the lines of "if only Town can hang on and not lynch the cop, they'll have a chance..." but the more I think about it, the more game-breaking your observations seem.

The primary way to fix it, I think, would be to give the cop some way of knowing when the recruitment has already happened, so that they can try to lay low until it does. For instance, when there is no night kill, the GM might tell the Town that it was blocked. If there's no blocked kill, a Town might guess that recruitment has happened. Of course, a clever Mafia would use this to sow some paranoia while saving their recruitment... It also wouldn't work in a game with a Vig or SK.

The other option might be to have lots of dogooders (say, approaching 50% of Town) and let them know when the Mafia has tried to recruit them. Then they can claim, and then the cop can claim. It's a crapshoot, but...

Or make the cop unrecruitable. Would have to be disclosed in the role description.

But as for this game, where none of the above are in play? I can't think of any pro-Town play for the cop except to lay low, breadcrumb very carefully and consistently, then in late game do something incredibly scummy to get themselves lynched. That seems to be the only way for a cop to claim (in a way) without risking being recruited, and hopefully some smart Townie would be able to put that together. If the cop can sneak in an explanatory post after the votes are in and RIGHT before the day ends, that's even better.

[Dragoness]

I think the best way to win for the cop ... is for the cop to roleclaim on day 3, reveal cleverly false information to the town, and expect to get recruited the next night.

Addendum: Wouldn't the best strategy for cop be to wait another day or two, then reveal a clever mix of true and false information? After all, it's better for the Mafia to recruit later in the game, and the cop's value to the Mob will be increased if some of the Townies still trust him... then again, maybe that's what you meant by "cleverly false," and I need things spelled out.

[sachertorte]

I can't think of any pro-Town play for the cop except to lay low, breadcrumb very carefully and consistently, then in late game do something incredibly scummy to get themselves lynched.

So essentially the pro-town strategy for the cop is to gather info, role claim, then demand the town lynch him so that he can't be recruited in the night. That's super funky!

[Dragoness]

So essentially the pro-town strategy for the cop is to gather info, role claim, then demand the town lynch him so that he can't be recruited in the night. That's super funky!

Or perhaps have a do-gooder claim Cop, wait a night to confirm it's a no-kill night, then reveal the trick so the cop can come forward? That's risky... poor do-gooder's likely to get himself lynched as a liar.

[NAF1138]

Or perhaps have a do-gooder claim Cop, wait a night to confirm it's a no-kill night, then reveal the trick so the cop can come forward? That's risky... poor do-gooder's likely to get himself lynched as a liar.
How would they plan that strategy without giving it away though? If something like that isn't planned in advance it won't work in a game like this. I think the best this for the cop might be to suicide like sachertorte suggested.

[Rysto]

Rather than suicide, lay out a list of who your suspect and trust, and hope you can talk your way out of it.

ETA: The purpose of the suspect/trust list is to give the Town your findings without making it obvious that you're a Cop, in case you do get lynched.

[Scuba_Ben]

Well, so much for those fancy delayed-claim-as-detective ideas. Man, the townies got shafted.

If another townie gets lynched in day 3, as bad guys I'd be willing to discuss a recruitment.

Just thought of something: Projammer declared as a do-gooder, right? So would it be worth the bad guys' time to eliminate em immediately? I'm trying to develop a scumdar, and Projammer is showing up on it for having survived the night.

[Kyrie Eleison]

Hello, forbidden thread! You have no idea how tempting it was to click on that thread title throughout the game's existence for me. I'd love to talk in detail, but I'm somewhat limited in what I should say.

Bah, go lurker thread!

[Kyrie Eleison]

Thinking about the cop got me to wondering what the best play for the cop is. I think the best way to win for the cop (at this point now that the town is down 0-2 in lynchings, and assuming the doctor survives the night) is for the cop to roleclaim on day 3, reveal cleverly false information to the town, and expect to get recruited the next night. Wow, that would really suck for the town.
I wish I were so clever. Although I thought about what I would do if I were recruited, the thought of intentionally arranging it never occurred to me. I'm not sure, though, that it would be worth it to the mafia -- the ability to essentially keep a member safe and in reserve until down to the last mob member, even considering the possibility of a do-gooder spoiler, would seem to outweigh the possibility of identifying masons.

However, it would be interesting in a game like this to see a do-gooder make a detective claim early, if he could sell it, to entice the mob to waste its recruitment, and then to confess his ploy to the town the next day, especially if there were no night-kill.

[dnooman]

Gah.

I would revise my "scum" list to include Idle Thoughts, tirial and Snakescatlady. She doesn't seem dumb to me, yet her posts suggests that she is IMO.

Town is not having a good time now. I fear that overzealous townies might secure a Mafia win.

[dnooman]

All my money is on tirial being scum.

[sachertorte]

I wish I were so clever. Although I thought about what I would do if I were recruited, the thought of intentionally arranging it never occurred to me. I'm not sure, though, that it would be worth it to the mafia -- the ability to essentially keep a member safe and in reserve until down to the last mob member, even considering the possibility of a do-gooder spoiler, would seem to outweigh the possibility of identifying masons.

Actually, my reasoning was that if the cop role claimed, and the doctor was still alive and unknown, then recruitment is the best option for the mafia to neutralize the power of the cop from finding mafia. The motive is not to gain the power to find masons (or doc or nightwatchman), but to prevent the cop from finding them. If the doctor was dead, then they would just kill the cop, but with the doctor alive, they have to recruit.

Recruitment seems way overpowered.

[Gadarene]

Recruitment seems way overpowered.

It may be. Could that be fixed by having an additional power role (I know, I know) similar to the Doctor, who names one person each night to insulate from recruitment?

[NAF1138]

It may be. Could that be fixed by having an additional power role (I know, I know) similar to the Doctor, who names one person each night to insulate from recruitment?

Recruitment isn't that overpowered as long as it is limited to the one recruit and there aren't that many mafia. It really just makes things harder for the town, but that isn't always a bad thing. I am not a fan of it personally, but I have read games on mafia scum where it has worked well.

[sachertorte]

Well, it just seems to me that the lack of a solid pro-town strategy for the cop because of recruitment makes for an unbalanced power. I truly believe that the best way for the cop to pursue a win is to get recruited. The preclusion of a viable pro-town strategy makes recruitment over powered. Tell me a viable pro-town strategy for the cop, and I'll change my position.

Perhaps if the cop was unrecruitable things would have been more even. Moot point with a dead cop and all, but still...

[NAF1138]

If there was another cop it might have helped. If the cop had conditions on his reads it might have helped. If the cop was unrecuitable it might have helped. But none of these things were in the game setup. If the roles were unknown it might have helped (i.e. what roles would be in the game were not laid out). I still think that a kamakazie cop might have been the way to go. Cop lays low for the first 3 or 4 nights makes a big role claim and says "lynch me now".

[Gadarene]

The game is fascinating at the moment.

[NAF1138]

I know, when you know all the answers the game gets really cool. I wish I could start a thread where I posted all the info and people could watch the teams work. I know in my game there has been some fantastic teamwork by the scum over the last couple of days, but if you don't know who is scum you are only just starting to get a peek at what has been going on.

You have a good group in this one Gad. I wish I hadn't gotten killed so fast, this one looks like it will be fun to play.

[Gadarene]

You have a good group in this one Gad. I wish I hadn't gotten killed so fast, this one looks like it will be fun to play.

I agree. And if the Mafia are able to avoid a lynch today (which isn't a foregone conclusion), I think it's gonna be pretty smooth sailing for them. I'll also say that the detective got spectacularly unlucky. You can confirm that, right, Kyrie? :)

[Agonist]

If recruitment is so powerful, why not give it to both sides? How about if the do-gooder can recruit as well? A spy inside the Mafia would be a neat trick.

[sachertorte]

Agonist, that would be a game breaker as the town's recruit would have all information needed to reveal who is mafia. That's super overpowered.

I just started reading day 3. I can't believe that only now they are discussing Projammer's role claim. I guess I should be satisfied that they are at least discussing it, but why not during day 2! Arrrgh.

I guess they felt they didn't have enough time to discuss it; the hard deadline for lynching is really hurting the town.

[Gadarene]

I guess they felt they didn't have enough time to discuss it; the hard deadline for lynching is really hurting the town.

But without a hard deadline, I don't understand how the game is supposed to keep focused. If the town had to get a lynching majority for the day to end, days could potentially take weeks. So to speak. And the whole thing would continually be at risk of meandering to a gradual halt. Plus, Mafia stall tactics would work far better in a game without a hard lynching deadline. Let's say there are eight players left, three of which are Mafia. All it takes is for one of the five townspeople to have a completely wrongheaded idea of who the scum is for the Mafia to be able to effectively stalemate the whole thing.

[sachertorte]

I was trying to remove myself from the whole sticky mess.


I don't know if CaerieD is scum or not, but her her attitude and gameplay is clearly anti-town. She doesn't want responsibility. If she is town then she is giving the mafia the out of also not needing to take responsibility. Everyone has to take responsibility and vote, otherwise just give up and give the game to the mafia. If not voting, then why play at all? I really hope CaerieD is mafia, or else the town is screwed with scummy smelling townies.

My prediction:
CaerieD (scum)

Ah, I see that the Lemur agrees with me.

And others too!

I wonder how the day would have shaken out if it were longer, or needed a solid majority to lynch. The Projammer claim could have been discussed, as well as Projammer's and CaerieD's no lynch votes. Day two could have taken forever!

[sachertorte]

But without a hard deadline, I don't understand how the game is supposed to keep focused. If the town had to get a lynching majority for the day to end, days could potentially take weeks. So to speak. And the whole thing would continually be at risk of meandering to a gradual halt. Plus, Mafia stall tactics would work far better in a game without a hard lynching deadline. Let's say there are eight players left, three of which are Mafia. All it takes is for one of the five townspeople to have a completely wrongheaded idea of who the scum is for the Mafia to be able to effectively stalemate the whole thing.

Day One of Werewolf took about a week. Potentially, the game could meander too long, but as the mod, you could impose a hard deadline with the threat of no lynch without a majority. By not having a set hard deadling at the beginning, the mafia can't wait out the clock. Imposing a hard deadline when the town stalls out with no lynch if no majority, it forces the town to get talking and get lynching. Anyone willing to take the no lynch is obviously scum ;)

I don't understand your stalemate scenario. If there are 5 town and 3 mafia, then (other than being screwed already) the town needs to be very careful with voting. One wrong vote and the mafia can pile on and get the majority it needs to lynch town.

Oh :smack:

I see the problem, I shouldn't have said 'clear majority' I should have said majority where 50% is sufficient to lynch (first to 50% so there isn't a tie issue).

[Kyrie Eleison]

I agree. And if the Mafia are able to avoid a lynch today (which isn't a foregone conclusion), I think it's gonna be pretty smooth sailing for them. I'll also say that the detective got spectacularly unlucky. You can confirm that, right, Kyrie? :)
I think you are generous to place all of the blame on bad luck, but I can attest that there was not an abundance of good luck. There are certainly things I would do differently with that role next time around. I had decided that the best way to avoid looking like a detective was to play the game almost exactly as if I were a vanilla townie, except where I had to make exceptions to permit the inclusion of breadcrumbs. I wanted to avoid the common newbie tell of being overly conservative and stand-offish with a power role (thank you, mafiascum wiki.) However, I failed to consider just how likely my vanilla townie play style was to get me whacked.

I think I can safely say that it was my play as a townie that got me killed, not my play as a detective. If I had been a bit more conservative on that side, the town might still have a detective. Or maybe I'm just second-guessing too much.

I think that day three will be a turning point for the town, one way or the other.

[sachertorte]

I hesitate to make a list like dnooman did and Hal did just now because I feel it gives a slight advantage to scum to read what people on the other team think.

:dubious:
Idle Thoughts sure looks like scum here. Only scum would want the town to "hide" information from being out in the open. dnooman and Hal are doing exactly what town should do. But at least he does state his suspicions, which is best for town, but contradictory to his own statement of belief.

Now here's a problem. It seems like the entire town is saying crazy things like this. I have this nagging feeling, and I think the town does as well, that makes me wonder if this behavior is really scummy or simply naive. I think the town has to take the stance that naivete cannot be an acceptable defense. This policy will lead to several townie lynches, but in the long term I think it is best for town.

I'm amazed that the town won in WW1. The advice of an experienced player and the great play by their seer won that game. Of course the mafia were new players too, so that must have helped. Perhaps the learning curve for playing as mafia is easier than the curve for learning to play as town.

[sachertorte]

If they did know she was the detective, then they did a VERY bold move knowing what would have been seen as potential breadcrumbs.

Wha?

Does anyone understand this statement? I'm shocked that Blaster Master said this. He seemed to have a good handle on the mechanics of the game. Of course the mafia would off the detective! They want to stop him from getting more information.

[Gadarene]

Yup. :)

[Dragoness]

This game is nerve-wracking. I find myself desperately wishing they'd lynch SOMEBODY- I don't care who!- just so I can find out the truth. If I actually was a citizen in this poor town, I think by now I would have snapped and gunned everyone down in the Town Square just to find out. My nerves can't take it.

That said, Fluiddruid and CaerieD keep pinging scummier and scummier every time they open their mouths.

[NAF1138]

I can't believe that they are only just realizing what the Do-Gooder claim means to the town. This is a conversation they really needed to have had yesterday.

[Gadarene]

Hal Briston just posted this:

As I alluded to earlier, the Do-Gooder has a chance at the one time where lying in a role claim is helpful to the town. Role claim something the Mob would want, and you run a good chance of making them piss away their sole recruitment opportunity. Yeah, they'll probably kill you for it the next night, but you'll certainly be well-martyred.

That is a sneaky, sneaky tactic. I love it.

[sachertorte]

I can't believe that they are only just realizing what the Do-Gooder claim means to the town. This is a conversation they really needed to have had yesterday.

I agree.

I can't believe they let Projammer slip by with that. And is fluiddruid still in the lead to lynch, letting Projammer slip by yet again? I know NAF suspects her, but I haven't really seen much to think either way on fluiddruid. Anyone care to sum up for me the case against fluiddruid? (As I typed that I thought, I should just read the game thread, but then I realized the players just keep referencing general scumminess without a full-on logical case brought forth; oh, and breadcrumbs).

NAF, why did you suspect fluiddruid?

[NAF1138]

I suspect her for reasons that may not exist anymore. But I feel like she was saying "I am one of the most agressive players here" an aweful lot while actually being fairly unconfrontational and not actually contributing much other than noise. I also feel that the only reason they had to take me out was if one of the people I said I was watching was actually mafia. Projammer might cover this instance, Omi might cover it, lightnin' might cover it, but fluid covers it best. If I had been flat out wrong and they left me alive, I was going to get lynched in a day or two with the way I was playing, so I figure I must have hit the mark at least a little.

There isn't really much beyond that. But I think the biggest tell is fluid's frequent claims of being agressivly town without actually being agressivly anything. To me that says scum.

[Gadarene]

Currently it's the fact that Kyrie expressed multiple strong misgivings about fluiddruid that has them all in a twitter.

[Scuba_Ben]

Currently it's the fact that Kyrie expressed multiple strong misgivings about fluiddruid that has them all in a twitter.
I'm hoping they lynch fluiddruid just to find out the truth of those hints.

But if they don't, I think it's in the Mafia's interests to let her survive the night.

[Gadarene]

tirial is smart. Which probably means that he's not long for this game.

[Gadarene]

It's amusing that Idle Thought's list in #1059, there's exactly one Mafia member named in four of the five categories. :)

I'm also very interested to see if anyone else follows Blaster Master's lead and unvotes fluiddruid.

[Kyrie Eleison]

Four in five? FOS you, Gad, you have to be lying. Mumble mumble, now I've got to completely revise my list.

This game is more fascinating now than when I was actively playing. I can't stop watching!

[Dragoness]

One in each category? Ye gods, I've been completely wrong about everything! How horrible for Town... Scum must be playing really well.

[dnooman]

Gah, town seems to be screwed again. I knew I was on to a plot when it was me and Projammer up to swing, seems I was right.

Any leader that the town has is doomed one way or another. Booo!

SnakesCatlady, Rachm Qoch, and Hal Briston better watch themselves.

[Kyrie Eleison]

tirial is smart. Which probably means that he's not long for this game.Lame prediction: tirial dies tonight.

I'll go out about 2 in. on a limb to be the first to welcome tirial to the forbidden thread.

[sachertorte]

While I guess the mafia is playing well, I think the bigger problem is the town is playing poorly. The town seems too fixated on the task of finding scum and ignoring the almost just as important task of not doing anything that looks overtly scummy to the rest of the town. A do gooder claim is very overtly scummy. Projammer really looked like scum from my point of view. The town really had to lynch him, otherwise they make a do gooder claim golden for any scum to abuse.

So far my two scum predictions (think I've only made two so far) are DiggitCamara and CaerieD, neither of which have been killed.

My town predictions are also still alive, Omi no Kami (but that prediction is due to a big tipoff from Gadarene) and Lightnin' (which I don't even remember the reasoning for).

I was suspicious of Idle Thoughts due to his hesitance in sharing his thoughts because he thought it would help mafia, but I did not make a full-out prediction. Which brings us to Idle Thoughts's list which Gadarene tipped us of as to having 5 groups with 4 groups containing exactly one mafia. 1) this confirms my suspicion that the game started with 4 mafia. For game balance with the recruitment option, this makes sense. 2) Gadarene included all 5 groups in stating 4 of them contain exactly one mafia. Idle Thoughts is one group all by himself. Therefore, I conclude Idle Thoughts is mafia.

This is all very convenient for me since my two earlier predictions are happlily in seperate groups. Also, it makes sense for mafia to spread out mafia in his scum lists.

Oh, and what is it with listing scum lists with no reasoning. That's not helpful, not helpful at all.

My Scum List:
DiggitCamara for faulty logic explaining his day 1 voting
CaerieD for wanting to remove herself from the whole sticky mess and no-lynch vote
Idle Thoughts for not wanting to share information because 'it helps scum' and Gadarene serving him up nice and toasty warm.

[Fretful Porpentine]

Well, at least this game is good for a certain measure of schadenfreude, since they seem to be doing just as badly as we are :(

[NAF1138]

So, no nightkill tonight? You think the scum was dumb enough to try to recruit or did they get blocked?

[Gadarene]

One thing you can say about the Mafia in this game: they certainly aren't dumb. :)

[NAF1138]

One thing you can say about the Mafia in this game: they certainly aren't dumb. :)
I didn't think so. I wonder if the mafia intentionally chose not to kill anyone, because the town was getting too close and they needed to spend some more daylight hours creating misdirection. I know the mafia never chose to no kill in the other games, but this might not be a bad choice in the right circumstances.

[Projammer]

My money is on them having been blocked by doc or night watchman.


And is there any possible way I could have played worse? Sheez.

At least now the town will focus on something besides me.

[Gadarene]

Projammer:
And is there any possible way I could have played worse? Sheez. At least now the town will focus on something besides me.

Although you really shouldn't have role-claimed Do-Gooder for all the reasons enumerated in the thread, I really don't understand why the players made the leap from "questionable tactical move" to "scum." Heck, I didn't understand the suspicion on you to begin with.

I still don't think the townspeople get that people who act "scummy" in overt ways are much more likely to be town than scum, because scum aren't stupid. That was my mistake in Mafia II, where I saw a bloc of people voting together and assumed that they were all Mafia. If anything, the Mafia are most likely to *not* vote together...especially at this stage of the game.

To their credit, some of the townspeople are beginning to figure this out. Still doesn't mean they're drawing the right conclusions, though. :)

[NAF1138]

It really seems to me that you have to be activly involved in one game before you start to really understand how to play. I am noticing that the best players in my game out of the gate were all players from WW1 (this has changed, but we had a couple of days that turned everyone from newbs into veterans). It seems that the same is the case with this game. The people who have played before (either here or elsewhere) seem to be doing better.

Would you argee with this Gad?

[Gadarene]

I think so, yeah. Although I don't really know the extent of the Mafia experience for most of the players in this game...but it does seem like certain players are much more familiar with how these things usually go, and that translates favorably in their play.

[sachertorte]

I still don't think the townspeople get that people who act "scummy" in overt ways are much more likely to be town than scum, because scum aren't stupid.

But it is also the job of townspeople not to act scummy for this very reason. If the excuse is given that only town will act scummy then the entire game has collapsed into a random draw (a random draw heavily favors mafia). Any mistake or mis-post could be swept under the rug under the guise of 'misguided townie.' Then how can town find mafia? Town just can't play like that, and had to lynch projammer. Even on scant evidence, I feel the do gooder claim seals the deal.

Can I root for the SK in this one too?

[Gadarene]

But it is also the job of townspeople not to act scummy for this very reason.

But what's "scummy"? Over-defensiveness, ill-thought out role claims, and lack of nuanced analysis---all of which are things that most people in this thread and the game thread seem to view as "scummy"---are far more likely to be the product of a townsperson's inexperience than a Mafia giving him or herself away. I suggest that people reevaluate what they believe to be scummy behavior.

Then how can town find mafia?

I've discovered a certain tone to townspeople's posts that generally isn't present in Mafia posts. It's a genuineness, for lack of a better word. A spontaneity. I'd suggest looking beyond behavior to word choice and, even more so, timing of posts. It's more subtle than people have been making it out to be, at least with this group.

[Dragoness]

And is there any possible way I could have played worse? Sheez.

Aw, Projammer, don't worry. Claiming do-gooder was the only bad thing you did- like Gadarene, I don't see what the fuss was about before that.

Anyway, a few things aren't making sense to me.

1. Why do people seem so sure the Doctor must have self-protected? If I were Doctor, I think I would at least make an effort to protect the most vocal and trusted players who I thought were Town... Is it really normal for the Doctor to be self-protecting three nights in?

2. Is it really pro-Town for tirial to be refusing to spell out this voting block he's found?

3. Why is tirial so sure that the masons are casting anti-town votes? That doesn't seem possibe- they don't have really that much more knowledge than Town does. They have no nighttime planning periods. How in the world could Masons be voting anti-town, and even if it's possible, how would you prove it? tirial is starting to look like he's sowing chaos and dissention.

4. If Lightning isn't a petulant child in real life, he's been doing a very good impression of one all game. I have a hard time believing that would be a scum strategy.

5. There's no way the Mafia recruited at this stage. I can see NAF's argument for why scum might chose a no-kill night, but that would work much better if it was later in the game, when Town might reasonably be worried about a recruitment (and scum didn't want to recruit quite yet). I don't think that would be a good strategy yet either.

This seems like a fiendishly difficult game.

[Gadarene]

Dragoness:
I have a hard time believing that would be a scum strategy.

Exactly.

This seems like a fiendishly difficult game.

This particular iteration, or Mafia in general?

[Dragoness]

This particular iteration, or Mafia in general?

I'm not rightly sure. If I have time, I'll go read some games at mafiascum to figure it out.

Any enlightenment for me on questions 2 and 3, about tirial? His comments about Masons have me baffled and suspicious.

[Scuba_Ben]

It really seems to me that you have to be activly involved in one game before you start to really understand how to play. I am noticing that the best players in my game out of the gate were all players from WW1 (this has changed, but we had a couple of days that turned everyone from newbs into veterans). It seems that the same is the case with this game. The people who have played before (either here or elsewhere) seem to be doing better.

Would you argee with this Gad?You have a good point here. Once the current games all wrap up, would it be worth running an all-rookie game?

[sachertorte]

Gadarene, 'ill-thought out role claims' is pretty much what I'm talking about. Prior to the role claim, I was confused what the fuss was about projammer. I had some bias due to NAF's vociferous condemnation of projammer after he was nightkilled, but projammer's reaction to being in the spotlight looked very much like scum as a do gooder claim is very anti-town. So the lynch is understandable.

Now that's just projammer.
percypercy and dnooman are different stories. I don't understand those decisions at all.


1. Why do people seem so sure the Doctor must have self-protected? If I were Doctor, I think I would at least make an effort to protect the most vocal and trusted players who I thought were Town... Is it really normal for the Doctor to be self-protecting three nights in?

2. Is it really pro-Town for tirial to be refusing to spell out this voting block he's found?

3. Why is tirial so sure that the masons are casting anti-town votes? That doesn't seem possibe- they don't have really that much more knowledge than Town does. They have no nighttime planning periods. How in the world could Masons be voting anti-town, and even if it's possible, how would you prove it? tirial is starting to look like he's sowing chaos and dissention.

4. If Lightning isn't a petulant child in real life, he's been doing a very good impression of one all game. I have a hard time believing that would be a scum strategy.

5. There's no way the Mafia recruited at this stage. I can see NAF's argument for why scum might chose a no-kill night, but that would work much better if it was later in the game, when Town might reasonably be worried about a recruitment (and scum didn't want to recruit quite yet). I don't think that would be a good strategy yet either.

This seems like a fiendishly difficult game.

1. I think the doctor might self protect at this point in the game if the cop was alive and unknown. With the cop dead, the doctor role becomes less of "protect powerroles" an more of "try and guess who the mafia will target each night." If the doctor at this point has no idea who is town, then self protection is a good option as the doctor knows that he is town.

2. I was wondering about tirial as well. I'm not sure, but it does seem quite a bit off. If there is information to be had he should just say it. Hinting at it, especially stating what someone needs to do to draw the same conclusion, is not very helpful, and not particularly obfuscating to scum.

3. With the town down 3 innocent lynches to 0 mafia lynches, Mason have no reason to play anti-town. Zero. I think they have zero reason to play anti-town regardless of the game state, but with a mafia victory looming with just two more mis-lynches... zero. masons are pro-town.

4. no comment

5. recruitment would be a silly mafia move last night. I think no kill is even more stupid. There is no reason for mafia to choose no kill; choosing no kill gives the town a half day reprieve. One more blocked kill attempt translates to an extra day for the town. However, if the doctor and nightwatchman were both dead, then a no kill might make sense in limited situations. Because no kill gives an extra half day, sometimes that extra half day needs another half day to make a whole day. (Wow, that was weird). Without a doctor or nightwatchman, the town would not be able to generate another half day. Currently, the nightwatchman and doctor are still in play, so giving half days (even if that alone doesn't change the number of mislynches the town has) is a bad idea.

[NAF1138]

You have a good point here. Once the current games all wrap up, would it be worth running an all-rookie game?


Might be...if we were allowed to set up an all vet game too. (Just to be fair)

[Kyrie Eleison]

And is there any possible way I could have played worse? Sheez.Aw, Projammer, don't worry. Claiming do-gooder was the only bad thing you did- like Gadarene, I don't see what the fuss was about before that.
FWIW, I agree. Until the somewhat odd role claim, Projammer's biggest sin seemed to be avoiding get lynched in percypercy's stead, and then avoiding get lynched in dnooman's place. If the town doesn't get beyond this "you were a suspect on day one, and yet you're still breathing while other townies are dead" mode of naming suspects, they're in trouble. Well, they're in trouble either way, but you get the point.

Projammer, if you don't me asking, what mistakes do you think you made?

[Projammer]

Excellent question. One that I'm still rolling around myself. I was actually coming in now to try to get some clarification on some things that have been pointed out as mistakes.

Personally, I think my two biggest mistakes were being visible and surviving two lynchings where townies were taken. People were just tired of not knowing for sure about me and needed to get rid of the distraction.

The mistake I knew I was making but didn't take time to resolve was in posting suspicions and votes without supplying my supporting evidence.

Then of course there were the two big missteps I made according to everyone else that I'm still not sure why they were mistakes.

1. Role Claim. I claimed a true, but unverifiable, role. By that time, there was pretty much zero chance that I would be recruited in any case the way everyone was eyeballing me.

2. Voting No-Lynch on day two. My prime suspect was out of town and I was loathe to vote for him without him being able to defend himself. I guess that's just the do-gooder in me. Wouldn't it be better not to lynch anyone that to lynch someone you're not sure of and then find them to be town?

[Dragoness]

If the town doesn't get beyond this "you were a suspect on day one, and yet you're still breathing while other townies are dead" mode of naming suspects, they're in trouble. Well, they're in trouble either way, but you get the point.


Yes- Town seems convinced that anytime a Town swings, it must be because a scum barely dodged the noose. Anyone who seemed to be "saved" by a lynch must be scum. That doesn't work for me. Then again, they're also convinced that anyone who has voted too much for Town must be scum, which also doesn't work so well- I think scum must be doing a very good job this game of letting Townies pick each other off.

Man, I want to read through this game with perfect knowledge. That would be so interesting...

[Projammer]

At this point I really don't think the mafia is having to try too hard. They should be coasting down the middle of the stream. Posting enough to keep them away from being noticable for posting too much or too little. And enough content to avoid being pegged for fluff postings. They don't even have to contribute anything original, just repackage what someone else has already said.

[Kyrie Eleison]

He or she will have a choice. It'll be like this, basically:

Mafia Members X, Y, & Z: Gadarene, we would like to recruit A.
Gadarene to Mafia: <checks to make sure A isn't a Do-Gooder> Okey-dokie.
Gadarene to A: Congratulations, you've been made. Here are the keys to the clubhouse. Go play nice with X, Y, & Z.
Gadarene to Mafia: Here's your new recruit, A. He's a mason. Isn't he cute? You kids have fun!

And then A can tell the Mafia as much or as little as he wants.

I think it becomes pretty easy to construct a scenario wherein a mason recruitment is poison for the mafia. If, for instance, there were three remaining masons on the town side, and two non-mason townies vs. one masonic mafioso and one non-mason mafioso, isn't the newly made man's best strategy simply to post "Hey, X and I are mafia. Lynch him first, and then me, and when you're done, there will be more masons than townies, so I and the other masons will win."

This complicates what I previously thought was a straightforward argument that the mafia's best strategy is to wait until they're down to the last member to recruit. Masons make my head hurt.

[Gadarene]

From the Mafia thread:
Lightnin' has been the one who has brought less to the game, at least to this point. His only burst of participation came when the tide was turning against him. So, in my mind, he has tried to save himself by hiding as much as possible. And that, in my mind, makes him scum.

This is the kind of silly reasoning I'm talking about. (No offense meant to DiggitCamara.)

And Kyrie: I think you're right. Under a very particular set of circumstances, it might well benefit a masonic mafioso to spill his guts publicly about his recruitment in order to ensure a mason victory. Interesting stuff.

[sachertorte]

Projammer,
I think you hit on something very important. I think it is very reasonable for you to have thought that just telling the truth is good for the town. We all learned a good lesson from this, the truth isn't always a good thing to share. I recall in WW1 when the Seer role claimed, there was much chatter about why role claim when not in danger of being lynched. The town questioned the move simply because it appeared that a role claim at that time was not warranted and possibly not in the town's best interest. They didn't lynch, the the move was questioned. Basically, any statement of fact will be questioned. If that fact cannot be verified, it must be treated as useless or hostile.
And I agree with you. The two 'errors' you state are pretty much it. I think you also were victim of NAF's accusations. If I recall correctly, your early statements were stating "Hey, look at me, I'm town" too much. NAF stated that this was a scum tell for Mafia 2, for which he knows perfect information. Guess that didn't really work out for NAf huh?

Dragoness and Kyrie,
I also agree with your assessments. The town is too obsessed with statistics and voting records rather than logic and explicitly stated reasons for votes. A vote for town is forgivable, as long as there is adequate reason for the vote.

[NAF1138]

Dragoness and Kyrie,
I also agree with your assessments. The town is too obsessed with statistics and voting records rather than logic and explicitly stated reasons for votes. A vote for town is forgivable, as long as there is adequate reason for the vote.

This is so true. And I think it is very interesting that no one on the dope seems to be treating this like the logic game that it is. If you read mafiascum.net they spend lots of time following the logical thread of a particular argument, but that is something that has rarely happened in these games (with the notable exception of the Rubystreak lynch in WW1).

I think this is strange because I would have guessed that the culture of the boards would have lent itself to just the opposite behavior.

[Kyrie Eleison]

Then of course there were the two big missteps I made according to everyone else that I'm still not sure why they were mistakes.

1. Role Claim. I claimed a true, but unverifiable, role. By that time, there was pretty much zero chance that I would be recruited in any case the way everyone was eyeballing me.

2. Voting No-Lynch on day two. My prime suspect was out of town and I was loathe to vote for him without him being able to defend himself. I guess that's just the do-gooder in me. Wouldn't it be better not to lynch anyone that to lynch someone you're not sure of and then find them to be town?

In addition to being suspicious because it was unverifiable, the role claim, if true, was actually harmful. Even if you had engendered enough suspicion that there was zero chance that mafia would recruit you, there is value in the knowledge that you're a do-gooder.

The mafia knew you were town, and were likely to believe your claim. IIRC, there were 14 townies left when you made it. Before you claimed, the mafia could recruit with 1/7 chance of getting a do-gooder. After your claim, though, they could recruit with 1/13 chance. (I'm ignoring the lynch that would likely take place before they got a chance to recruit.) So everyone's first question became "why would a pro-town player make claim that can't be verified and that's harmful to the town?" A slightly deeper consideration leads to the realization that it's only harmful if it's true, and that, to a lesser degree, the same is true of any claim. I think it was your misfortune to encounter one of very few situations in which it makes sense for a townie to lie.

The no-lynch argument is seductive, but falls apart inductively. On day one, the town realizes that there are 16 townies and 4 mafia, and supposes that there is an 80% chance that they will lynch a townie. Being perfectly rational people, everyone posts "vote: no-lynch", and little else, and no new information is gained. That night, the mafia kills a townie. On day two, the town realizes that there are 15 townies and 4 mafia, and that they have a 78.9% chance of lynching a townie. And so on. The no-lynch argument makes sense until the town has less than a 50% chance of lynching a townie, by which time they've already lost.

In other words, if you believe that no lynch is a viable strategy, you might as well not play. Which leads to one of the more interesting questions I have regarding this game: over a large number of games, can the town be expected to do better than a strategy employing random voting?

[sachertorte]

Well, they've fallen into a different kind of 'logic.' Unfortunately one that is flawed.
e.g. "dead player A was town, therefore player B is more likely to be scum"
Looks like logic, but is extremely flawed.

The type of logic and reasoning that needs to be used is more inquisitive and confrontational than I think a polite group of people (strangers) might be willing to pursue right off the bat.

[sachertorte]

Which leads to one of the more interesting questions I have regarding this game: over a large number of games, can the town be expected to do better than a strategy employing random voting?

Interesting question. But the answer depends on assumptions regarding gameplay. If we assume perfect players on both sides, then I would assert that each lynch would be essentially random, as perfect play would fail to reveal information sufficient to tip the balance in a particular direction.

Actual play is not perfect, and the information revealed and discussion process supposedly assists the town in identifying scum. In this case, the town should do better than random. Conversely, imperfect play by the town confuses information and should shift results to poorer than random.

Finally, there is the notion of perfect information given to the town in the form of the cop. This certainly should tip the town's achievement towards better than random.

I just did a little bit of quick math: a purely random lynch by town yields terrible results. In a 4 person game with 1 mafia (25% mafia) a random lynch wins for the town with a 25% chance. But a game of 8 people with 2 mafia (I'm still suspecting a 15:5 ratio in the current game, i.e. 25% mafia), then random lynches will win for the town only 15.6% of the time. I suspect random lynches with 20 people and 5 mafia would be even lower than 15%.

And just for kicks: Random lynches would have led the town to their current state of 3 mislynches in a row 46.7% of the time.

[Kyrie Eleison]

"dead player A was town, therefore player B is more likely to be scum"

Heh. In other words, the strategy is to identify the scum by eliminating all of the townies? ;)

[Fretful Porpentine]

Heh. In other words, the strategy is to identify the scum by eliminating all of the townies? ;)
Well, that certainly seems to be what we're doing in Game 2...

[Dragoness]

I have to say, that fluiddruid was high on my scum list until she turned around and gave Town exactly the advice that we had concluded in this thread that they needed to hear- certainly the most pro-Town advice we've seen in several pages of posts. What gives?

And a general plea for information from the more experienced players: The more I think about this game, the more it seems very unlikely for a town to do better than random chance- it seems that the game itself is just ridiculously difficult for Town. Can anyone throw me a link to a game where Town played WELL? I desperately need to see a concrete example of all this "following the logical thread" and "more inquisitive and confrontational" logic to have any idea.

[sachertorte]

Dragoness,
I am by no means an experienced player. I've never played before, I just like to watch.

I didn't mean inquisitive and confrontational logic. I meant inquisitive and confrontational behavior. The game is a matter of discerning that scum behaves differently than town. To discern scum from town requires that all town basically "play" the same way. That means tacit agreements that town doesn't do anything that hurts the town. Previous games were hurt by townies misunderstanding the game and trying to save themselves as individuals rather than do what is best for town.

Initially town basically vote randomly; however, scum do not. Scum has information that town doesn't, and that will affect their behavior. Unfortunately, these early games have set the precedent that anyone railroading a townie is scum. Which is not really the case, and probably is never the case. Town should be railroading someone just to put the pressure on and see how behavior changes. Then the logic kicks in and a new target is picked or the old target is labelled scum. All town should be flinging accusations; that forces scum to fling accusations too. Too many townies are afraid to say anything that might be wrong or be confrontational, and that hurts the town by giving scum comfy cover.

[sachertorte]

Omi no Kami wants out.
With mafia up 3 lynches to 0, I'd say that's a pretty big town-tell; but I already thought Omi no Kami was town.

The town is right though, all town has to vote. Doesn't seem to fit with Omi no Kami too well. While reading OnK's responses I kept thinking, "Then why are you playing?"
I guess we reached the same conclusion.

[NAF1138]

I have to say, that fluiddruid was high on my scum list until she turned around and gave Town exactly the advice that we had concluded in this thread that they needed to hear- certainly the most pro-Town advice we've seen in several pages of posts. What gives?

And a general plea for information from the more experienced players: The more I think about this game, the more it seems very unlikely for a town to do better than random chance- it seems that the game itself is just ridiculously difficult for Town. Can anyone throw me a link to a game where Town played WELL? I desperately need to see a concrete example of all this "following the logical thread" and "more inquisitive and confrontational" logic to have any idea.

I think the town played very well in WW1 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=407197&highlight=werewolf+game), particularly with the Rubystreak lynch, as well as in many games over at mafiascum.net. The town is not always playing well in my game, although some players are playing very well, the problem in my game is that the mafia is just outplaying them. I think if I had a different group as mafia in my game things would be very different. The town keeps getting close and being put off the scent by mafia members (sometimes by townies overthinking things), which might not have happened so readily if different people had different roles. But the Suburban Plankton lynch in my game is a good example of the town doing things correctly.

[Gadarene]

DiggitCamara:
If he isn't scum, these 3 days go to show one thing: scum have been "hanging back" from the main action and left citizens to string up citizens.

I don't see how those clauses follow each other at all.

[Scuba_Ben]

It seems the more-active players are throwing analyses, FOSs, and accusations at each other. So I'm wondering, how many of the less-active players are probable Mafia?

[sachertorte]

Huh.
I'm looking over fluidruids entire defense post. The whole history of voting (seeing it all in one place like that for the first time) really makes me wonder now. I'm seeing things I never saw before.

And those would be .... what exactly?

Ever since I put Idle Thoughts on my scum list, I'm more suspicious of his postings. I think this is a case of confirmation bias.

I would guess that confirmation bias plays a vrey strong role in this game.

[percypercy]

I'm suspicious of
diggitcamera (and not just because he was the first person to vote for me). His posts don't make sense half the time, and it seems to me like he's contradicting himself in quite a few of them.

fluiddruid She's definitely looking scummy to me, but they should be careful of bandwagoning AGAIN.

-Lil

[sachertorte]

I think I'll probably end up voting for fluiddruid today, but not before I've really weighed everyone else, including Lightnin'. I am gunshy.Yawn.

Although neither do I want to kill Lightning and have him turn up scum, because then I'm probably next.What the hell?! Lemur should be held to the fire for this. I wasn't even thinking Lemur was scum, but off-hand remarks like this by a townie can't go by without a nice helping of confrontation. Call Lemur scum for saying this, then see how he reacts. I don't really think Lemur is scum for this statement, but it makes a good discussion point. The town has been too fixated on actions and not the words and word choices.

This is getting kind of aggravating. All this chatter of why so and so voted for blah. Would mafia do this? Would mafia do that? So much misplaced logic. The vote record is not gospel! Then again maybe it is mafia that is driving me crazy and deftly nudging the town into applying logic into stupid strategies. "Hey look at this nice shiny spreadsheet! Isn't it pretty? Don't you want to waste spend all your time and energy looking over this spreadsheet for clues?"

Okay, I retract that. At least the town is holding DiggitCamara to task for the inane assertion that lynching is a good idea regardless of his status by yielding useful information. I hope they lynch DiggitCamara as he has been on my scum list. At the very least I hope they leave the spotlight on him so I can watch.

Oh Boo Master Blaster. Diffusing an otherwise productive and entertaining discussion.

[Gadarene]

Many of the townies baffle me in this game. Although I guess having perfect information will do that to you.

[Scuba_Ben]

Gadarene, are there ANY bad guys strongly involved in the discussions? Wait, don't answer that.

It would be a distrubing lack of faith* if all the prolific posters were townies. However, from what I've seen, the paranoia that everybody is showing makes that an option. I still can't figure out a good strategy for convincing people that someone is or is not a bad guy, especially when the "someone" is yourself.

*: I was rereading a Star Wars book last night, I have the top quotes on my brain today.

[Gadarene]

Gadarene, are there ANY bad guys strongly involved in the discussions? Wait, don't answer that.

I can answer that if you want. :)

[Scuba_Ben]

I can answer that if you want. :)Yeah, but it would spoil our "Find-the-scum" fun.

[Gadarene]

Yeah, but it would spoil our "Find-the-scum" fun.

I've already given you a handy logic problem to that effect. :cool:

[Dragoness]

I think the town played very well in WW1 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=407197&highlight=werewolf+game), particularly with the Rubystreak lynch, as well as in many games over at mafiascum.net.

I just started reading through that game. Town got unbelievably lucky with the Alpha Wolf lynch. But in any case, it seems that at the end of Day 1 in that game, the two most-lurking players were subbed out for more active posters- and both of them turned out to be Wolves.

I strongly suspect that the current game has a few lurking scum, and I wonder how much better it would be going for Town if Gadarene had forcibly subbed them out. I think it might have done a bit to prevent this Town's rather odd myopia (that is, the way they only suspect a small set of active posters, and have ignored bunches of people, like Qoch and Hal)

Too late now, I supose.

[Gadarene]

I strongly suspect that the current game has a few lurking scum, and I wonder how much better it would be going for Town if Gadarene had forcibly subbed them out.

Do you think I'm being too lax in enforcing the "no lurking" rule?

[Dragoness]

Do you think I'm being too lax in enforcing the "no lurking" rule?

I only suspect that it would have gone better for Town if you had been stricter about it- but I don't exactly think a change now would be good (in the name of consistency) nor help town much (since they are so VERY myopic). It was just an interesting contrast between the two games.

[Gadarene]

Fascinating stuff in #s 1315 and 1316.

[Kyrie Eleison]

How trusting are we that active players aren't visiting this thread? Because all I can comfortably say is just "wow, go, tirial, go."

[dnooman]

Hey Gad, were my guesses about scum similar to Idle Thoughts's in regards to scum in multiple categories?

The way things are turning I think I might have at least one scum in each of the categories I mentioned, with the possible exception that all of my "definitely scum" are town. Of course the "definitely town" section is accurate.

For some reason everything that SnakesCatLady is saying now is sending my scumdar meter through the roof. Anyone else getting that feeling?

[Gadarene]

Hey Gad, were my guesses about scum similar to Idle Thoughts's in regards to scum in multiple categories?

Link me.

[Scuba_Ben]

Barring a major change of events, it looks like fluiddruid is going to swing at the end of this game day.

I still haven't figured out a good way to determine who's town and who's a bad guy. Help? Please?

[Gadarene]

I still haven't figured out a good way to determine who's town and who's a bad guy. Help? Please?

Spontaneous comments and visible frustration are very strong town tells, in my estimation. And an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope.

[Scuba_Ben]

Spontaneous comments and visible frustration are very strong town tells, in my estimation. And an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope.But with my usual level of visible frustration, I'm liable to get lynched anyway. On Day One.

[Gadarene]

But with my usual level of visible frustration, I'm liable to get lynched anyway. On Day One.

Not if I'm in the game! (As long as I'm not Mafia, of course.) :)

[Projammer]

Apparently all I need to do to get lynched is to say something.

Or not say something.

Is it my cologne?

[dnooman]

Odd how several of the people I suspect currently have said something similar to "I'm going to have to vote for fluiddruid" Italicizing mine. Me thinks the mafia are piling on one of their own. Well, of course some of them are voting for her, but you see what I mean.

Link for Gadarene (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8513021&postcount=788).

[Gadarene]

Your list is more bunched up than the other one, dnooman. And that's all I'm gonna say. :)

[Scuba_Ben]

Well, how about that. The bandwagon was right this time.

Would someone please show me what kept fluiddruid alive for the first few days and lost it for her on day 4?

[Dragoness]

Thank God they got one! If fluid hadn't been scum, I would have... well, thrown up my hands in dismay and disbelief, at the very least.

Scum predictions: Fluid, Idle Thoughts, Lemur, and either Hal or Diggit.

Or course, these are based completely and totally on Idle Thoughts and dnooman's lists and Gadarene's comments about them, so they are massively cheating and irrelevant to actual gameplay. As far as actual gameplay goes, Lightnin', Omi, and tirial all scream Town to me. SnakescatLady, Come to the Dark Side, and Blaster Master are more problematic but I lean Town. I would be wildly suspicious of Caerie D and Millit, except that I know they aren't possible. Nesta, Lemur, Rachm Qoch, Hal, Diggit, and Idle are all on the "mild suspicion" list.

I post this only so that I can look back on it objectively, because otherwise I WILL end up going "tirial... yeah, I knew that all along!" 'cause there's nothing like hindsight and delusion.

And no, I won't outline the specific reasons for all of those, because I'm not a player, I don't have to, and what are you gonna do, lynch me for it? :D

But tommorow, chances are about 90% that Caerie will swing without Town seriously considering other prospects... so sad.

[Projammer]

And no, I won't outline the specific reasons for all of those, because I'm not a player, I don't have to, and what are you gonna do, lynch me for it? :D

Now there's a scum tell if ever there was one.

Lynch Dragoness
and
FOS Gadarene

Not sure about how Lightnin is screaming town to you. But I'll concede that may just be because I was so sure he wasn't when I was handed a bowl of nachos.

[sachertorte]

Yay town!

I have to admit that I didn't have a strong scum read on fluiddruid, but I didn't offer an opinion either way. Could someone sum up for me the points against fluiddruid that brought the conclusion that she's scum? The only things I can remember was the discussion long ago about her being a mod and therefore entitled to a juicy role and the fact that she's voted for town outright thoughtout the game.
Oh yeah, Wasn't fluiddruid as Kyrie's breadcrumb a substantial part of the case against fluiddruid?
Kyrie, Did you investigate fluiddruid?

Now that they finally got a scum, there should be good information to be had from previous posts (Not that I'm rereading all that stuff).

As for lightnin', I have him on my 'town' list from Day 2, which of course should warrant re-evaluation, but I'm not actually playing the game so I'll stick with what I got.

I also had CaerieD as scum based on her ridiculous assertions of not wanting to get into the town's sticky mess and voting no lynch. CaerieD and fluiddruid were in the same Idle Thoughts category that Gadarene tipped us off with, so presumably CaerieD, Millet the Frail, and tirial are town. I guess CaerieD's actions really were clueless town actions and not scum intransigence. Bad me.

I will stick with DiggitCamara as scum based on flimsy evidence: his not voting for his top scum candidate on day one.

I was kind of hoping the town would lynch town on day 4, just to see the reaction.

[Gadarene]

Kyrie, Did you investigate fluiddruid?

;)

Like I said, Kyrie had somewhat unfortunate timing issues, investigation-wise.

[NAF1138]

Well it's good to know that one of my scum predictions was correct.

Go Town!

[Dragoness]

Not sure about how Lightnin is screaming town to you. But I'll concede that may just be because I was so sure he wasn't when I was handed a bowl of nachos.

Well, I say why in post #139, but I wouldn't be so sure if Gadarene hadn't responded in post #140.

Oh please don't let them go after Caerie next... I suppose Idle Thoughts is safe from suspicion for awhile, but please let them look at that horribly scummy DiggitCamara...

[Gadarene]

I notice I've been less circumspect in this thread that NAF was in his; I hope that's not inappropriate.

[Kyrie Eleison]

Kyrie, Did you investigate fluiddruid?

As much as I'd like to, I think I still can't answer this without possibly providing too much information to any active players who may be inappropriately visiting this thread. Now that she's dead, though, there are two things that made me very suspicious of fluiddruid that I can point out:

When fluid cast her vote for percypercy, Lightnin' was the current vote leader. She explained that she was voting for percy because she thought Lightnin' might have a power role. She very much made it seem as if she thought Lightnin' was in danger of being lynched. However, when she explained her vote the next day, she said that at the time she cast it, she assumed that Projammer was going to be lynched regardless of her vote. Her statements, both quoted in #813 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8514719&postcount=813), are not consistent. She was, at best, casual with the truth. Lynch all liars, as they say over at mafiascum.

I found it interesting that the next day, the town repeatedly bickered about whether it was Lightnin' or Projammer who was saved by the switch to percy, without ever tracking down the source of their confusion.

The second thing that made me very suspicious, although it happened after I had voted for her, was fluid's claim to have voted for me twice (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8515549&postcount=831). She voted for me only once in the game thread -- I suspect that she also voted for me once as night kill in the mafia discussion area and accidentally referenced both votes. However, I can't imagine any reason I would be a contender for day one's night kill, so maybe it was just an honest mistake.

Neither of these points were discussed much on day three, though, so I can't say that they were significantly contributing factors in her eventual lynch.

[fluiddruid]

Hey gang. And Kyrie, our unfortunate victim. How's death treatin' ya? ;)

[Gadarene]

Very nice job, fluid. I've been meaning to tell you that for a while. :)

[Kyrie Eleison]

Hey gang. And Kyrie, our unfortunate victim. How's death treatin' ya? ;)
Welcome aboard, fluid! You and your side are playing great -- I'm almost glad I'm dead; you've saved me the frustration that I would surely be experiencing if I were still actively involved.

[Kyrie Eleison]

Neither of these points were discussed much on day three, though, so I can't say that they were significantly contributing factors in her eventual lynch.
I should have mentioned that tirial touched on both of these points, although she got the voting thing backwards (she thought that fluid had claimed that I voted for her twice,) and tirial was definitely a contributing factor. Props to tirial.

[fluiddruid]

Very nice job, fluid. I've been meaning to tell you that for a while. :)Being alive would have been nicer, but I think we're in a good place for a win at this point. There's still a lot of game left though.

[Dragoness]

Welcome fluiddruid! Very eloquent defense posts, by the way.

[Projammer]

And of course, the question everyone is dieing to ask.

Was taking out the detective a lucky shot? Or had something put her on your radar?

[Scuba_Ben]

Hmm... two days with no muggings.

Here's my guess: The bad guys tried to kill someone and it failed. Then on the guess that they tried to kill the doctor, they attempted to recruit the previous target.

[Dragoness]

Blastermaster and CaerieD are close to the top of my scum list. On Day one, they were the final two votes for percypercy (saving Lightnin or Projammer), and on Day 3 their swing to Projammer (a bandwagon started by Lightnin') saved fluiddruid. Note their celebrations last night don't include any mention of the fact they saved fluiddruid at the town's expense the day before.


This is pretty much the same conclusion I've come to, as well. It's why I voted on fluiddruid yesterday, even though I'm normally loathe to jump on a bandwagon. Going over the past votes, CaerieD stuck out like a sore thumb, and her voting pattern implicated fluiddruid. We need to get the scum out, even if it means going for the easy votes, so I went with the flow. Today, however, it's time to vote CaerieD.

So... tirial lays out reasoning for suspecing Caerie and Blastermaster, which relies on the premise that Lightnin' is scum. Then Lightnin' pops up and says, not only that he agrees with the suspicions, but that he agrees with the reasoning that relies on him being scum! Well, I'm sure Lightnin's not scum because that would be one stupid scum, but... what's up, Lightnin'? Do you not understand the reasoning that implicates you?

He baffles me. I am officially baffled.

[Projammer]

Jeez Lightnin. You'd think we'd have had a secret handshake or sumthin.


Oh well. Nachos?

[NAF1138]

Jeez Lightnin. You'd think we'd have had a secret handshake or sumthin.


Oh well. Nachos?


WOW, so I seem to be good at picking out do gooders and not FOSing mafia strongly enough. Good to know.

Idle Thoughts, based on my history and not yours at all... I FOS YOU!

[Lightnin']

Heh... I'm really glad this thread exists. Now I can 'splain. :)

First, I'm new to this game, so it took a little while to learn the ropes. By that point... well, I'd put my foot in my mouth. So what to do?

As a Do-Gooder, I figured the best way to attract attention from the Mafia, given that I'm new to the game and won't be very good at spotting Scum, would be to look guilty as hell right in the beginning. Once I looked guilty, then... ease back. Play the "poor me" card. Start looking like an innocent, in over his head. This was all in hopes that the Mafia would try to recruit someone who'd been discounted by the rest of the Town as harmless- namely, me.

After all, resisting recruitment is the Do-Gooder's job. I knew that I couldn't get them to recruit me based on my strength at playing the game- there were many others who were much better than I am. Whether it worked or not... dunno. It would be kinda nice if the Do-Gooder would at least get some confirmation when a recruitment attempt is made on them.

I'll be the first to admit that spotting the bad guys isn't my strength- not by a long shot. However, I still think that CaerieD is scum, by the logic I used (and which was verified by fluiddruid's scumhood. Again- I had to ignore the fact that the same strategy also implicated me- 1), I *knew* that I was innocent, and 2) I wanted to look harmless right? Why would scum use a strategy that implicates themselves?

"Petulant child"? Well, that's kinda what I was aiming for. I'm hoping that my lynching will also help reveal the Scum that used me as an easy kill.

[Gadarene]

You may have noticed, Lightnin', that once the town has a suspect in its sights---for good reasons or ill---it generally won't let go until they're hanging. I'm not necessarily sure about the efficacy of that strategy, overall, but there you are. :)

[Lightnin']

You may have noticed, Lightnin', that once the town has a suspect in its sights---for good reasons or ill---it generally won't let go until they're hanging. I'm not necessarily sure about the efficacy of that strategy, overall, but there you are. :)

Yeah, I started to get a bit annoyed with that- even after it was pointed out that the existing overall strategy wasn't exactly working, we just kept on using it. I wouldn't be surprised if the Scum kept subtly urging everyone back to that particular strategy, personally. :)

[Gadarene]

I'm interested to know what would have happened if you'd role-claimed doctor. :)

[Dragoness]

Welcome in, Lightnin'. I can't tell you how glad I am that the "poor me" way you were coming off was a deliberate strategy. It didn't work, but I think that has more to do with the odd myopia of this town than with any problem with that strategy- if they'd let go of you, I can see how that would have made you a possible recruitment target.

Again- I had to ignore the fact that the same strategy also implicated me- 1), I *knew* that I was innocent, and 2) I wanted to look harmless right? Why would scum use a strategy that implicates themselves?

I think the problem with that strategy is that, while scum sure wouldn't use it... er... neither would a Townie. It was all very :dubious: but it's good to hear the logic.

Poor Town. Next will be CaerieD, you see if it isn't, and then they're hosed. Poor near-sighted Town... In the meantime, either tirial or Idle Thoughts is scum (original or recruied, I don't know), and they haven't got more than a 50% chance of guessing which, and the other will be bumped off at night anyway... poor Town.

[Malacandra]

If anyone in this thread wants in on the pirate-themed game, PM me please. It will be off-board as TPTB don't want two games and their "forbidden" threads killing the performance of the entire board. Google Groups will do the necessary, and links will be provided.

[Scuba_Ben]

I'm as confused about three no-kill nights in a row as the players in the main thread are. (Of course, some of them are not as confused as they sound.)

I'm getting a ping on my scumdar that at least one of the people who voted for Lightnin' was a bad guy. I can't tell which one, though. Anybody have any thoughts?

[Gadarene]

Anybody have any thoughts?

I surely do. :)

[fluiddruid]

Hmmm. I think in the end there are some roles in this game "not quite balanced". Just my opinion. Though, Mafia did catch a break with Lightnin' being a Do-Gooder.

[Gadarene]

I think in the end there are some roles in this game "not quite balanced".

Which ones? PM me if you don't want to share publicly.

[NAF1138]

Woohoo, go town!

Haven't really been following the game the last couple of days, but if the town has gone 3 nights without a night kill that can only mean that someone is doing something right.

Now get out there and actually find the mafia town! Stop taking out your power roles.

[Scuba_Ben]

Lemur866's analysis in eir latest post gives me a bad feeling about em. Does it make sense for a bad guy to publish such an in-depth analysis? Or am I falling victim to the annoying "so sincere, they MUST be dishonest" fallacy?

Also, would it make sense for the bad guys to have voted no-murder on either of the last two game nights, just to muddy the waters and the voting record?

[Gadarene]

I should mention that I like the format of my current game a lot, and I think it's pretty well balanced. Were I to run it again I'd consider having someone be the Junior Detective, who (a) turns the Detective into a quasi-Vigilante (seeking vengeance either upon the town or the mob, depending on who killed the JD) if he or she is killed before the Detective is, and (b) turns into a Detective if the Detective is killed first.

I'd also consider imbuing the Doctor with special powers if and when they're recruited by the Mafia...maybe by saying that, as a Mob Doctor, the Doctor automatically protects all Mafia members but himself from nighttime kills by the Detective-turned-Vigilante, or something. I dunno. Ideas are welcome.

[Scuba_Ben]

One comment I have about the current game's format, Gadarene, is whether the Do-Gooders have to be standalone roles. They were in this game, but is that necessarily so?

[Gadarene]

Do you mean standalone as far as not having any other powers, or standalone as far as not knowing who each other were?

[Scuba_Ben]

Do you mean standalone as far as not having any other powers, or standalone as far as not knowing who each other were?
Standalone as in not having any other powers.

[sachertorte]

I haven't been keeping up with the game this week, but it seems that one of my predictions got himself killed and revealed that I was right in presuming that Lightnin' was town. That prediction was coupled with DiggitCamara being scum, so I hope DiggitCamara dies soon.

While travelling (and bored) I did some analysis of game balance. I only did the case without power roles because cop investigations and doctor saves are much harder to quantify. The analysis also ignores the information factor gleaned by the town during discussons (i.e., the analysis is for probability of a win based on random lynches).
For a game with 20 people and 5 mafia, the town win probability is approx. 9%. [This is pretty much the game split for WW1 which the town won]. I'm wondering if the this makes for a balanced game. In WW1 the town was remarkably lucky (WW kill on first night) and the cop role played the game pretty much perfectly. Even then the town had one unidentified wolf and won based on confirmed town outnumbering unknowns.

Anyway, does anyone know what the distribution of town v. mafia usually looks like? Based on my analysis it is clear that a set percentage doesn't work.
For example:
2 mafia 6 town has a population with 25%mafia and approx. 23% probability* of town win.
3 mafia 9 town has a population with 25%mafia and approx. 16% probability* of town win.
4 mafia 12 town has a population with 25%mafia and approx. 12% probability* of town win.
5 mafia 15 town has a population with 25%mafia and approx. 9% probability* of town win.

*probability ignoring cops, doctor, conversation, etc.
Presumably power roles even the odds.

So I think for a balanced game, number of mafia and number of town can't scale evenly.

My best guess for 'balanced' games:
2 mafia 6 town has a population with 25%mafia and approx. 23% probability* of town win.
3 mafia 11 town has a population with 21%mafia and approx. 21% probability* of town win.
4 mafia 18 town has a population with 18%mafia and approx. 20% probability* of town win.
5 mafia 27 town has a population with 15%mafia and approx. 20% probability* of town win.

[Scuba_Ben]

I'm getting a bad-guy feeling about Lemur, not that it matters much as we'll probably find out really soon.

I'm getting a bit of a bad-guy feeling about CaerieD. I can't describe it yet.

Anybody else have any suspects?

[percypercy]

I've felt like diggitcamera was scum from the first day, for all the good it did me. lemur866 is another good scum canidate, along with Idle Thoughts They've been directing the flow of the game a bit too overtly, esp. Lemur.
-Lil

[Dragoness]

I've felt like diggitcamera was scum from the first day, for all the good it did me. lemur866 is another good scum canidate, along with Idle Thoughts They've been directing the flow of the game a bit too overtly, esp. Lemur.
-Lil

Really? You think Lemur is as much "directing the flow" as Idle and tirial? I wouldn't say so.

Either Idle or tirial has SO been recruited. Or will be soon. The recruitment factor adds incredibly to the paranoia of this game.

Too bad about the Omi No Kami meltdown :( I hope s/he calmed down and realized it wasn't personal, really.

[Scuba_Ben]

Bam, they got another one!

I expect that what's left of the bad guys -- and I suspect there's three of them -- will try really hard to eliminate someone tonight game-time. Who's it going to be?

I'd likely eliminate someone who hasn't been vocal.

[Lemur866]

Wow, so sachertorte picked a really bad scum tell on my part.

All I can say for my supposed "scum tell" that got me lynched is :rolleyes: .

My only mistake was that I overestimated the town.

[sachertorte]

Wow, so sachertorte picked a really bad scum tell on my part.


What? Did I? I don't even remember.

[Lemur866]

When I said "I hope Lightning doesn't turn out scum when we lynch him, because that will mean I'm next". Of course a townie should be willing to die to take out a scum.

[sachertorte]

Oh yeah. I remember now.
I think I was mostly incensed that the town was letting that comment slide. Too much concern for who is voting for whom rather than looking at actual statements. I don't think I actually put down an 'official' prediction that lemur was scum, but I did find the comment rather blatantly scummy at the time.

Yay!

Too bad, I seem to have missed the boat for the next game. Damn work travel.

[Gadarene]

Lemur:
All I can say for my supposed "scum tell" that got me lynched is :rolleyes:.

Yeah, I don't know if it was a genuine slip-up on your part or not, but I took "you all" in exactly the way you said you meant it from the beginning, and didn't think anything of it...even knowing you were scum.

Nice playing, by the way.

[Lemur866]

Yeah. Thing is, when I reread that post before sending I thought to myself, "Hmmm. Should I change that? Nah, that's exactly what I'd say if I really were a townie, leave it in." Except I forgot that careless words like that get innocent townies lynched too.

Heh. The funny thing is, I think my public analysis hasn't been very different than what I'd post as a townie. I wonder what they'll make of my repeating the accusations against SnakesCatLady? First Fluiddruid fingers her, then me. What does it all mean?

[Projammer]

Hmm.. Guess I should have followed my instinct about the prison striped tail. Not that it would probably had done me any good.....

[chrisk]

I hope this is alright - I started another game thread for Haggle (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Haggle_(game)), a trading and scoring party game, and we've got a few slots still open on the signin sheet I think. So, just posting here in case anybody's interested in giving it a look - I know we have a few mafia regulars already joined up, but still.
Thank you for your time and space.

[percypercy]

So when Mafia IV comes around, will there be a spot for me? I mean, come on, I hardly got to play this time!
-Lil

[NAF1138]

So when Mafia IV comes around, will there be a spot for me? I mean, come on, I hardly got to play this time!
-Lil

Mafia 4 is already happening, more or less (http://psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi), off board. PM Malacandra to get on the sub list, it looks like we might need a sub or two. Day one has about 36 hours left in it.

[CaerieD]

Gosh, I really figured I had another Day left in me after turning into such a spectacular red herring on Day 3. I'm surprised the Mafia took me out, since I could have ended up a good lynching candidate.

For what it's worth, Lemur, the "you all" comment wasn't the nail in your coffin as far as I was concerned. It wasn't even the straw that broke the camel's back. My suspicion came mostly from the various shenanigans surrounding SnakesCatLady. It just seemed a bit off somehow. The "you all" might have gotten a townie lynched and then everybody would be feeling like idiots. Since it got scum, it's now brilliant instead of totally random. ;)

[fluiddruid]

So when Mafia IV comes around, will there be a spot for me? I mean, come on, I hardly got to play this time!
-LilHaggle took over the next Mafia slot, but other than the off-board Pirate game, the next person on the waiting list to run a game is... (checking) Blaster Master.

[sachertorte]

Blah. My accusation of CaerieD was pretty weak and very wrong. But we go with what we are given in the peanut gallery. I still think refusal to get involved in the sticky mess looked scummy; as is typical it was town-scummy not mafia-scummy. At least the town didn't lynch her.

And where are the Masons? No Mason kills or Mason claims yet. What's up with that?


So there's a waiting list for games and a waiting list for running games. This amuses me. Is there any way to know when signups start? I've managed to be not looking at inopportune times.

[fluiddruid]

So there's a waiting list for games and a waiting list for running games. This amuses me. Is there any way to know when signups start? I've managed to be not looking at inopportune times.Well, to be fair, there's just one waiting list - the people who requested to run games. They can then post the game once their number comes up. Basically it's just a way to make sure we're not overrunning our hosts here in MPSIMS.

Games are generally started a few days after the prior game ends. If someone wasn't ready to start a game reasonably soon, I would likely pass it along to the next person waiting.

[fluiddruid]

Bwa ha ha, welcome to the ranks of the dead, Snakecatlady. Sorry for, er, trying to set you up 'n' stuff. ;)

[CaerieD]

Sigh. I'd gotten the feeling SnakesCatLady was likely town after I was killed during the night. If she'd been scum, offing me would have just added more weight to my suspicions of her. Which is precisely what happened, except she was a citizen.

[SnakesCatLady]

Where's the nachos? I was told there were nachos in here!

No hard feelings, fluiddruid. It's just a game, and I did warn them you would be laughing if they lynched me!

I do have some hard feelings toward Omi no Kami - she owes me an apology.

Well, at least some people tried to defend me. I hope the town will look at the lurkers - I'm sure there are some scum in there.

[SnakesCatLady]

It's funny how two of the people who lynched me are now apologizing...

I'm fairly sure Millet the Frail is scum. If she's town she's probably a Mason.

[fluiddruid]

I have a pretty good idea of who the Masons are, I think (we're simply running out of players and of course I know who the scum are) and I'd be surprised, if there are 3 masons like I guess, if one of them wasn't targeted tonight.

Yep, no hard feelings, Snakecatlady. Sadly, the one plan I had that failed was the one that got me killed. The others seem to have worked out pretty well. ;) Though, I think, being mentioned prominently by any dead player seems to be B-A-D. I'm learning a lot about this game, I think.

[HazelNutCoffee]

Will y'all believe me if I tell you that I stayed up until 7am reading the current mafia thread and all the previous ones?

I mean, it's not like I have anything better to do, like write a paper. Or two. :smack:

I've played this game before IRL, but it's so much more exciting online, I think. I'd be interested in participating in a future game. After I write those damn papers.

[Scuba_Ben]

I think I've got the motivations now. Check me on this:

The Bad Guys want to protect each other, muddy the waters, and generally not get caught.

The Masons want to protect each other, in a way that doesn't draw accusations of being a Bad Guy.

The Citizens want to ID the Bad Guys, and a suspicion is often all it takes.

The Detective wants to share their info, but the moment they say something clear, the Bad Guys will eliminate em.

The Doctor wants to protect power roles, but suffers the problem of IDing the power roles.

Now I'm looking for advice on how to play these roles.

[percypercy]

Well, that's both psychic cats out, fat lot of good they did the townies. Sorry SCL! I'm not sure anything can save the townies from themselves.
-Lil

[SnakesCatLady]

Have to agree with you on that one, percypercy - I don't hold out much hope for the town in this game. Maybe if they start paying attention to the lurkers, but I have a feeling Idle Thoughts has a rope with his name on it now.

[sachertorte]

So I just read the bit about Idle Thoughts role claim. Is the general consensus that the Doctor has been recruited so Idle Thoughts is going to be unprotected?