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Zeriel
08-09-2007, 01:03 PM
*clunk*


Okay, that was the sound of my paradigm shifting without a clutch.

DiggitCamara
08-09-2007, 01:07 PM
What do the rest of you think of Queuing's version of Hal's breadcrumbs?
Well, concerning MadTheSwine, I at least was certain (even way back when) that he wasn't the breadcrumb.

I mentioned URL=http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8792766&postcount=1819]way back then[/URL] that sachertorte was one of the plausible breadcrumbs, but I also mentioned Queuing. In both cases I speculated he'd gotten "Believer" as a result.

The problem being, of course, that the Prophet would show up as a "Believer" as well.

DiggitCamara
08-09-2007, 01:14 PM
Oh well, I was hoping to avoid this necessity, but I have made it many Days further into the game than I expected and I don't see myself getting off this bandwagon in time.

Don't dunk me. I am the Disciple. You know why I must not verify this myself. I'm tempted to come out with a clever hint that the Priest would get, but there are two problems with it: it would look very conspicuous if, say, only one person unvoted me, and the scum are perfectly capable of working out any clue I posted.

To date I have protected:

Myself Idle Thoughts Hockey Monkey Pleonast Pleonast

I have quite happily been looking suspicious enough to encourage the scum to think they will be able to get me dunked any day soon and so leave me alone at Night, but it's a little late for that with the Day going into its last twelve hourse or so and I don't fancy voting Diggit and sitting tight in the hope everything turns out well, so I'll have to pipe up now.

Any further questions?
Yeah. Why oh why did you have to post your list of protected persons?

I mean... at least last Night you protected someone who had claimed a role, and if you protected and saved Pleonast the Cultists would have assumed it was part of the role. On the other hand, they could have thought that Pleonast had false-claimed (trying to draw a Night kill and turning into the Psychopath, perhaps) and wasted another Night kill on him to fend off that chance.

But... telling them you protected Idle Thoughts on Night 2? C'mon!

Malacandra
08-09-2007, 01:22 PM
Yeah. Why oh why did you have to post your list of protected persons?

I mean... at least last Night you protected someone who had claimed a role, and if you protected and saved Pleonast the Cultists would have assumed it was part of the role. On the other hand, they could have thought that Pleonast had false-claimed (trying to draw a Night kill and turning into the Psychopath, perhaps) and wasted another Night kill on him to fend off that chance.

But... telling them you protected Idle Thoughts on Night 2? C'mon!

:smack:

You know, that's what I get for answering the question before it's been asked. I just naturally assumed that was the first thing people would be demanding to know. Of course, it would be quite funny if the scum had hit the Psychopath on a Night when my protection missed, wouldn't it? (I mean, insofar as having the Psychopath on the loose is funny at all, which is questionable in itself.)

Since no-one knows whether my protection succeeded or failed on a given Night, and it's obvious that I'm not in possession of privileged information, I hope it's not given the scum too much information. I just took a view on who might be in need of protection and hoped to second-guess the scum. Up to now that's not worked out wonderfully well, but my odds weren't that good in the first place. :cool:

MHaye
08-09-2007, 01:27 PM
:smack:

You know, that's what I get for answering the question before it's been asked. I just naturally assumed that was the first thing people would be demanding to know. Of course, it would be quite funny if the scum had hit the Psychopath on a Night when my protection missed, wouldn't it? (I mean, insofar as having the Psychopath on the loose is funny at all, which is questionable in itself.)

Since no-one knows whether my protection succeeded or failed on a given Night, and it's obvious that I'm not in possession of privileged information, I hope it's not given the scum too much information. I just took a view on who might be in need of protection and hoped to second-guess the scum. Up to now that's not worked out wonderfully well, but my odds weren't that good in the first place. :cool:I note you don't tell us who you protected last night - this being Day Seven and all, with your protection list only going up to Night 5.

Just as well, maybe?

Malacandra
08-09-2007, 01:36 PM
I note you don't tell us who you protected last night - this being Day Seven and all, with your protection list only going up to Night 5.

Just as well, maybe?

Hmm. I've just checked my sent PMs again on the strength of that observation, and you know what, I have missed a night out. But I think it may be best not to say which night or who, am I (belatedly) right?

DiggitCamara
08-09-2007, 01:41 PM
Another thought now: Until now I'd thought Malacandra was a Believer (or at least not a Cultist) because he'd almost gotten voted off on Day 2 instead of Kat. Looking back at the final vote tally (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8758523) it's interesting to see that out of the 5 votes at the end of that Day (Pleonast, fluiddruid, sachertorte, Hal Briston, Kat ) only one is unidentified (sachertorte, if we assume Pleonast) roleclaimed accurately. His was also the fateful "3rd vote" on Malacandra. And it came at a time where Kat and Malacandra were tied at 2 votes...

Sadly we don't know the alignment of half the players who voted for Kat (Fretful Porpentine, Autolycus, SnakesCatLady, Kyrie Eleison ,Scuba_Ben, Idle Thoughts ), but after my (probable) dunking you will know at least those of me, SnakesCatLady and ScubaBen. I am now almost sure Idle Thoughts is town-aligned (a combination of playing style adding Malacandra's post) which would make it at least 4 town-aligned players. This is important, because it would explain why the Cultist didn't make a strong effort to save Kat.

So: if sachertorte was investigated by the Oracle and came back as a "Believer", this would mean he is the Prophet and made the mistake of trying to divert the bandwagon against Kat.

So: unvote Kyrie

vote sachertorte

DiggitCamara
08-09-2007, 01:44 PM
(snip)
Since no-one knows whether my protection succeeded or failed on a given Night, and it's obvious that I'm not in possession of privileged information, I hope it's not given the scum too much information. I just took a view on who might be in need of protection and hoped to second-guess the scum. Up to now that's not worked out wonderfully well, but my odds weren't that good in the first place. :cool:
(bolding mine)
Um... dude? If your role is what you say it is, you are in possession of privileged information.

The Cult knows this. That's why I'm bolding that part.

And no, please don't release any more information about the protection you imparted so far.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-09-2007, 01:45 PM
I'd like to know why you protected Pleonast before he claimed.

--FCOD

Malacandra
08-09-2007, 01:46 PM
(bolding mine)
Um... dude? If your role is what you say it is, you are in possession of privileged information.

The Cult knows this. That's why I'm bolding that part.

And no, please don't release any more information about the protection you imparted so far.

Well, one piece, yes. And I'll seal my lips forthwith.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-09-2007, 01:49 PM
Another thought now: Until now I'd thought Malacandra was a Believer (or at least not a Cultist) because he'd almost gotten voted off on Day 2 instead of Kat. Looking back at the final vote tally (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=8758523) it's interesting to see that out of the 5 votes at the end of that Day (Pleonast, fluiddruid, sachertorte, Hal Briston, Kat ) only one is unidentified (sachertorte, if we assume Pleonast) roleclaimed accurately. His was also the fateful "3rd vote" on Malacandra. And it came at a time where Kat and Malacandra were tied at 2 votes...

Sadly we don't know the alignment of half the players who voted for Kat (Fretful Porpentine, Autolycus, SnakesCatLady, Kyrie Eleison ,Scuba_Ben, Idle Thoughts ), but after my (probable) dunking you will know at least those of me, SnakesCatLady and ScubaBen. I am now almost sure Idle Thoughts is town-aligned (a combination of playing style adding Malacandra's post) which would make it at least 4 town-aligned players. This is important, because it would explain why the Cultist didn't make a strong effort to save Kat.

So: if sachertorte was investigated by the Oracle and came back as a "Believer", this would mean he is the Prophet and made the mistake of trying to divert the bandwagon against Kat.

So: unvote Kyrie

vote sachertorte

For some reason I'm getting lost in your parentheses. Can you try the first two paragraphs again?

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-09-2007, 01:52 PM
I'll be honest, Mal...your claim seems REALLY fishy to me. You don't know what information you possess and you say you've protected Pleonast before he claimed Martyr. OK, you say you missed a night, but I get the feeling you're lying and trying to cover up a mistake.

I'm not really sure what to make of you yet.

--FCOD

DiggitCamara
08-09-2007, 02:02 PM
For some reason I'm getting lost in your parentheses. Can you try the first two paragraphs again?
No problem.

Day 2:

Kat started off with an early vote list (2 votes)
Malacandra caught up, soon enough
sachertorte attempted to jump on the forming bandwagon to save Kat(possibly--and if so, bad strategy)


In addition to that, all voters (excepting sachertorte) for Malacandra on Day 2 have known alignments. Many of those who voted for Kat are known as well. It all points towards abandonment of Kat's cause, except for sachertorte's (possible) mistake.

Hal's "breadcrumb" would exhonerate sachertorte if


it was pointed at sachertorte
we knew the Prophet


I'm betting sachertorte is the Prophet.

I hope that clears up my convoluted thought process.

Queuing
08-09-2007, 02:03 PM
Well crap. I don't know what to make of this either. Always the role claim. unvote malacandra

Player list:

Alive
2 USCDiver
3 Idle Thoughts
5 Hockey Monkey
7 NAF1138
8 sachertorte
10 Malacandra
12 Kyrie Eleison
14 Pleonast
16 Fretful Porpentine
17 Pygmy Rugger
18 amrussell
19 FlyingCowOfDoom
21 Queuing
22 Zeriel
23 zuma [Ver. 2]
24 ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
25 DiggitCamara [Ver. 2]
27 MHaye

I won't vote for hockeymonkey, pleonast, zeriel, or I guess Malacandra now. Nor will I vote sachertorte as he is gone and can't role claim. Or myself of course

2 USCDiver
3 Idle Thoughts
7 NAF1138
12 Kyrie Eleison
16 Fretful Porpentine
17 Pygmy Rugger
18 amrussell
19 FlyingCowOfDoom
23 zuma [Ver. 2]
24 ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
25 DiggitCamara [Ver. 2]
27 MHaye

My gut has stunk. So I think I will listen to someone else's. NAF here is hoping yours is better.

dunk amrussell

DiggitCamara
08-09-2007, 02:24 PM
(snip)
Nor will I vote sachertorte as he is gone and can't role claim.

(snip)


You're quite right about that. On the other hand, I think people definitely should unvote Malacandra (unless there's a counterclaim, of course). That would mean, quite probably, that I'll be dunked, but I would, at least, leave a meaningful vote behind.


Right now the evidence strongly indicts sachertorte (in my mind, at least). Not only because of what I posted but because he:

1. Was extremely "helpful" so far, which seems to emulate storyteller's infamous run as Godfather in M2
2. Has been a strong advocator of the "summing up" trend. In my mind that has helped to "muddy the waters" more than anything else.

amrussell has been pinging my scumdar as well. He seems to have been on a parallel course to Kyrie's campaign against me, avoiding to seem to be in cahoots with him.

So. Right now, my suspect would be sachertorte, Kyrie, amrussell, in that order.

MHaye
08-09-2007, 02:26 PM
In addition to that, all voters (excepting sachertorte) for Malacandra on Day 2 have known alignments. Many of those who voted for Kat are known as well. It all points towards abandonment of Kat's cause, except for sachertorte's (possible) mistake.I went to check this claim.

Malacandra had five votes in Day 2 :1004 : Pleonast.
1031 : Fluiddruid.
1119 : Sachertorte.
1167 : Idle Thoughts. 1281 : Unvoted.
1267 : Hal Briston.
1273 : Kat.Of those three are certainly known and we have one claim. I'm not sure whether that quite supports "all bar one" as there must be some lingering doubt over the claim (we have true certainty only in death.) But it's close enough.

For Kat we had six :1064 : Fretful Porpentine.
1120 : Autolycus.
1142 : SnakesCatLady.
1154 : DarkCookies. 1171 : Unvote.
1166 : Kyrie Eleison.
1233 : Scuba_Ben.
1309 I Idle Thoughts.The only two we know there are SCL and Scuba_Ben. The other four don't have a claim between them.

Two out of six is not "many" - it is "a few." The latter doesn't sound nearly as emphatic, does it?

The overstatement inclines me not to accept the case, and look a bit more askance at DiggitCamara2. I'm not voting for DC2 yet though.

Malacandra
08-09-2007, 02:28 PM
I'll be honest, Mal...your claim seems REALLY fishy to me. You don't know what information you possess and you say you've protected Pleonast before he claimed Martyr. OK, you say you missed a night, but I get the feeling you're lying and trying to cover up a mistake.

I'm not really sure what to make of you yet.

--FCOD

I'm not necessarily saying I protected Pleonast before he claimed Martyr. I miscounted the Days, that was all. I appear to be discouraged from revealing any more. I know perfectly well what information I possess: who the Priest is. You know it would be fatuous play to reveal that even to save my own life.

Well crap. I don't know what to make of this either. Always the role claim.

Sorry. At least you know that my role does exist in the game.

Fretful Porpentine
08-09-2007, 02:30 PM
:smack: Well, I sure do know how to pick 'em, don't I?

Unvote Malacandra.

Vote Pygmy Rugger who strikes me as the most likely scum among the remaining candidates, thanks to the silence of the first two incarnations followed by a flurry of energetic posting that strikes me mostly as a way to say "See! See, I'm not being silent!"

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-09-2007, 02:33 PM
I know perfectly well what information I possess: who the Priest is. You know it would be fatuous play to reveal that even to save my own life.That's for sure. I was referring to when you said "and it's obvious that I'm not in possession of privileged information". See, if I was the Disciple, I can't imagine ever saying that. I would say that, however, if I was pretending to be the Disciple and forgot that detail about the role.

--FCOD

DiggitCamara
08-09-2007, 02:36 PM
(snip)

Two out of six is not "many" - it is "a few." The latter doesn't sound nearly as emphatic, does it?

The overstatement inclines me not to accept the case, and look a bit more askance at DiggitCamara2. I'm not voting for DC2 yet though.
Dude: not only didn't I say "many" I said
(snip)
Sadly we don't know the alignment of half the players who voted for Kat (Fretful Porpentine, Autolycus, SnakesCatLady, Kyrie Eleison ,Scuba_Ben, Idle Thoughts ), but after my (probable) dunking you will know at least those of me, SnakesCatLady and ScubaBen.
(snip)


... which is the same thing you said.

I went on to add that I now believe another of those who voted for Malacandra was town-aligned... Which, to me makes 4 out of 6 votes.

Malacandra
08-09-2007, 02:37 PM
That's for sure. I was referring to when you said "and it's obvious that I'm not in possession of privileged information". See, if I was the Disciple, I can't imagine ever saying that. I would say that, however, if I was pretending to be the Disciple and forgot that detail about the role.

--FCOD

Does this help? (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8865517&postcount=2750) Paragraph two, second and third sentences.

Santo Rugger
08-09-2007, 02:47 PM
<snip>thanks to the silence of the first two incarnations followed by a flurry of energetic posting that strikes me mostly as a way to say "See! See, I'm not being silent!"

I can't stress enough that I have no control over the silence that was before me. Most of my "energetic posting" comes from my one post and vote for Hockey, which took me what felt like twenty posts to fully explain. I've since agreed to put that logic on the back burner for now.

That's for sure. I was referring to when you said "and it's obvious that I'm not in possession of privileged information". See, if I was the Disciple, I can't imagine ever saying that. I would say that, however, if I was pretending to be the Disciple and forgot that detail about the role.

--FCOD

That was my first thought, also.

Santo Rugger
08-09-2007, 03:05 PM
<snip>
Since no-one knows whether my protection succeeded or failed on a given Night, and it's obvious that I'm not in possession of privileged information<snip>

Never mind, the "privileged information" is weather or not the protection succeded or failed. :smack:

Queuing
08-09-2007, 03:07 PM
That's for sure. I was referring to when you said "and it's obvious that I'm not in possession of privileged information". See, if I was the Disciple, I can't imagine ever saying that. I would say that, however, if I was pretending to be the Disciple and forgot that detail about the role.

--FCOD

After first reading this I thought, hmm, that was odd of the disciple to say...until I read it in context.

You know, that's what I get for answering the question before it's been asked. I just naturally assumed that was the first thing people would be demanding to know. Of course, it would be quite funny if the scum had hit the Psychopath on a Night when my protection missed, wouldn't it? (I mean, insofar as having the Psychopath on the loose is funny at all, which is questionable in itself.)

Since no-one knows whether my protection succeeded or failed on a given Night, and it's obvious that I'm not in possession of privileged information, I hope it's not given the scum too much information. I just took a view on who might be in need of protection and hoped to second-guess the scum. Up to now that's not worked out wonderfully well, but my odds weren't that good in the first place.

Reading the whole post seems to bring that 1 sentence into a different light, at least I read it as such. To me it seems that he is saying he doesn't know if his protection was successful.

If I am right it leads the suspicion back to you, as taking one sentence out of context to cast doubt onto someone who is claiming an important believer role.

Queuing
08-09-2007, 03:08 PM
Shoot, or what PR said.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-09-2007, 03:10 PM
Does this help? (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8865517&postcount=2750) Paragraph two, second and third sentences.Yeah, that helps. I didn't parse that paragraph the way I should have the first time I read it.

--FCOD

MHaye
08-09-2007, 03:11 PM
Dude: not only didn't I say "many" (snip)Actually you did use the word "many." You will find the statement I quoted in 2763.

I will concede that what you said in 2761 wasn't the same as 2763.

I went on to add that I now believe another of those who voted for Malacandra was town-aligned... Which, to me makes 4 out of 6 votes.I assume you meant Kat?

Yes, you may know (or think you know) four of Kat's voters, but we know only two. And that's what I picked up on.

Obviously DarkCookies wasn't the only one slightly intimidated by 2761.

Malacandra
08-09-2007, 03:12 PM
Yeah, that helps. I didn't parse that paragraph the way I should have the first time I read it.

--FCOD

How dare you go around being reasonable and making my previous response look pissy? :)

Pleonast
08-09-2007, 03:24 PM
You say you're the Disciple and then reveal who you've been protecting? If you're really who you claim, you've just given the Cult a lot of very useful information. The Town doesn't need to know who you protected. The Cult can use it to determine if their target was protected. To help them figure out if they activated the Psychopath or hit the Priest. And potentially help them out-guess who you'll protect in the future. Gah! poorly played, Mal!

That said, we need to spare you for the time being. If you're false claiming, we'll you catch one way or another.
Unvote Malacandra
Moving down my list:
Vote FlyingCowOfDoom

DiggitCamara
08-09-2007, 03:34 PM
Actually you did use the word "many." You will find the statement I quoted in 2763.

I will concede that what you said in 2761 wasn't the same as 2763.

I assume you meant Kat?

Yes, you may know (or think you know) four of Kat's voters, but we know only two. And that's what I picked up on.

Obviously DarkCookies wasn't the only one slightly intimidated by 2761.
... That'll teach me to make clarifying posts :p

1. Yeah, I meant Kat :smack:
2. Like I said in post 2763: Unless something changes drastically, you will know my alignment by toNight.

DiggitCamara
08-09-2007, 03:36 PM
... That'll teach me to make clarifying posts :p

1. Yeah, I meant Kat :smack:
2. Like I said in post 2763: Unless something changes drastically, you will know my alignment by toNight.
Not edited to correct: Like I said in post 2761.

Queuing
08-09-2007, 03:41 PM
Unofficial Vote Count:

DiggitCamara(4) - Idle Thoughts, amrussell, Kyrie Eleison, zeriel
Malacandra(3) - Pleonast, zuma, USC
Pygmy Rugger(3) - FlyingCowOfDoom, cookies,Fretful
amrussell (2) NAF, queuing
sachertorte(1) - DiggitCamara
FCOD (1) - Pleonast

That is what I have working off of USC's latest vote count.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-09-2007, 03:42 PM
Moving down my list:
Vote FlyingCowOfDoomWould you care to explain the reasons behind this vote? I'm genuinely curious.

--FCOD

MHaye
08-09-2007, 03:43 PM
Unofficial Vote Count:

DiggitCamara(4) - Idle Thoughts, amrussell, Kyrie Eleison, zeriel
Malacandra(3) - Pleonast, zuma, USC
Pygmy Rugger(3) - FlyingCowOfDoom, cookies,Fretful
amrussell (2) NAF, queuing
sachertorte(1) - DiggitCamara
FCOD (1) - Pleonast

That is what I have working off of USC's latest vote count.You've got Pleonast voting twice. He unvoted Mal a few posts back.

Zeriel
08-09-2007, 03:47 PM
Y'know, I'm looking it over again, and I think actually I have a different idea now of what I want to do.

Unvote DiggitCamara.

How odd is it that I think I see scum tells but I don't want to put forth my reasoning until I see if there are any more?

Also, remind me when the Day ends again?

Queuing
08-09-2007, 03:51 PM
Unofficial Vote Count (updated once again):

DiggitCamara(3) - Idle Thoughts, amrussell, Kyrie Eleison
Pygmy Rugger(3) - FlyingCowOfDoom, cookies,Fretful
Malacandra(2) - zuma, USC
amrussell (2) NAF, queuing
sachertorte(1) - DiggitCamara
FCOD (1) - Pleonast


The Day ends 11pm Thursday (today), about 7 hours from now.

Pleonast
08-09-2007, 03:51 PM
Would you care to explain the reasons behind this vote? I'm genuinely curious.Basically what I said in my omnibus post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8861373&postcount=2707):FlyingCowOfDoom has really been hounding me. He even voted for me (along with Mal's OMGUS) after my claim. His analyses seem weak to me and he's rather faded out recently. Either he's a floundering Townie or a Cultist trying flinging mud around wildly. High suspicion.Given how long it took me to get Mal close to dunking, I don't think you need to worry too much. ;)

Hockey Monkey
08-09-2007, 04:46 PM
I'm torn over who to vote for. I have some level of suspicion for everyone left in the game except Zeriel, as there hasn't been a Monk counter-claim. So. Who to vote for?

Taking out the role claims, we have:

Autolycus/DiggitCamara2
Captain Carrot/Nava/pygmy rugger
Clockwork Jackal/Kyrie Eleison
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
FlyingCowOfDoom
Fretful Porpentine
Idle Thoughts
Mhaye
MonkeyMensch/zuma2
NAF1138
Pasta/amrussell
Queuing
sachertorte
USCDiver

The person I am most suspicous of, is the person I have the least evidence on. Cookies has been for the most part under the radar, and I only have my gut to go on, but something doesn't "feel" right. It's kind of the same feeling I had about Gadarene in the Pirates game. There was no solid evidence. Can the lack of evidence in and of itself be evidence? I dunno, but toDay my vote goes to ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-09-2007, 04:47 PM
I'm curious as to the views on sachertorte from the remaining players.

Diggit obviously isn't buying him as a pro-town breadcrumb from Hal. I'm leaning in the direction that he was Hal's breadcrumb, and that he is pro-town.

Malacandra
08-09-2007, 05:07 PM
You say you're the Disciple and then reveal who you've been protecting? If you're really who you claim, you've just given the Cult a lot of very useful information. The Town doesn't need to know who you protected. The Cult can use it to determine if their target was protected. To help them figure out if they activated the Psychopath or hit the Priest. And potentially help them out-guess who you'll protect in the future. Gah! poorly played, Mal!

As they say in the investment business, "the past is not necessarily a guide to the future", and in any case, I figure that once I'm out, I've just put myself on pole position for the scum's attentions as long as the Priest remains hidden.

DiggitCamara
08-09-2007, 05:34 PM
I'm curious as to the views on sachertorte from the remaining players.

Diggit obviously isn't buying him as a pro-town breadcrumb from Hal. I'm leaning in the direction that he was Hal's breadcrumb, and that he is pro-town.
From here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8714516&postcount=5)



Prophet (Godfather) - Special cultist. He has the tie breaking vote among cultists. Once, while alive, he can spend one night converting a Non-Cultist but the Cult's sacrifice will be skipped that night. A Converted player appears to the Oracle/Apprentice as they did before conversion. Investigates as “Believer”.

(underlining mine)

I mentioned sachertorte as a possible breadcrumb by Hal. Problem is, if we're right, Hal would have identified him as a Believer.

Which still leaves two possibilities: he is truly a Believer.

Or the Prophet.

DiggitCamara
08-09-2007, 05:36 PM
As they say in the investment business, "the past is not necessarily a guide to the future", and in any case, I figure that once I'm out, I've just put myself on pole position for the scum's attentions as long as the Priest remains hidden.
If you are who you say you are, you have a 50/50 chance of surviving, anyway.

Santo Rugger
08-09-2007, 05:38 PM
If you are who you say you are, you have a 50/50 chance of surviving, anyway.

I, too, am having doubts. Not about the role claim specifically, but about the way Malacandra is describing the role. It just seems... odd.

Malacandra
08-09-2007, 06:18 PM
I, too, am having doubts. Not about the role claim specifically, but about the way Malacandra is describing the role. It just seems... odd.

What's odd?
- Can protect self or other - 50% to block kill, 100% to block Recruitment. Cannot be Recruited. Knows who the Priest is.
- Does not have special knowledge of who anyone else (except the Priest) is.
- Does not know whether protection worked.

Santo Rugger
08-09-2007, 06:26 PM
What's odd?
- Can protect self or other - 50% to block kill, 100% to block Recruitment. Cannot be Recruited. Knows who the Priest is.
- Does not have special knowledge of who anyone else (except the Priest) is.
- Does not know whether protection worked.

I'm just saying it's odd, that's all. Role claims have always been odd to me. Part of it may be the paradigm shift that happens, but it always "whoah's" me.

Pleonast
08-09-2007, 07:54 PM
About three hours until Dusk, and the top vote-getters only have three votes? Might as well send the Cult a formal invitation to dunk a Townie, because it won't be the Town picking. Vote, people! Especially, you, Mal, if you really are the Disciple.

Blaster Master
08-09-2007, 07:59 PM
Apologies to everyone, I've been VERY, VERY far behind at work, so I haven't been able to give this game the level of attention that I've wanted to. I will promise you one thing, I will not rest until I have processed the dusk...

:p Expect dusk around Midnight or 1AM EDT. Again, I'm really sorry.

zuma
08-09-2007, 08:17 PM
unvote: Malacandra

Not sure who I'll be voting for yet. I'll review some things after work and be back with a vote.

zuma
08-09-2007, 08:20 PM
I'm curious as to the views on sachertorte from the remaining players.

Diggit obviously isn't buying him as a pro-town breadcrumb from Hal. I'm leaning in the direction that he was Hal's breadcrumb, and that he is pro-town.


I'm beginning to wonder if Hal left any breadcrumbs. We seem to keep shooting ourselves in the foot trying to interpret what the hell he did.

DiggitCamara
08-09-2007, 08:27 PM
I'm beginning to wonder if Hal left any breadcrumbs. We seem to keep shooting ourselves in the foot trying to interpret what the hell he did.
Well... at least we are down to the last possible ones... :D

By the way, Pygmy Rugger, how come you haven't voted yet?

Your neck is on the line, and I'm sure your statements and your vote would help people to make up their minds, one way or another.

I definitely second Pleonast's statement: I don't have anything against tied votes (in the past they have served very well to ferret out scum), but I do have a lot against low-count dunkings, with many people waiting to the last minute to vote.

MHaye
08-09-2007, 08:42 PM
I'm having a great deal of difficulty in deciding who to vote for.

I looked at a list of the current players, excised myself and the roleclaiming players; with three of them there has been sufficient time to counterclaim, and no-one has. Malacandra's claim is too new to have been properly evaluated, and the next few hours probably won't be enough time.

All my suspicions of the thirteen remaining players are so thin. They mostly boil down to reeds so slender I'm ashamed to base a vote on them.

DiggitCamara2? Every time I think he's done something scummy it turns out that he has a good explanation and/or I've misunderstood him. The discussion we had earlier is a good example.

Once I'd sorted out the misunderstanding re his latest theory, that began to appeal to me. Like many people, I've wondered about whether Kat included a Cultist in her Four FOS's (back in post 1020). So far, Pleonast and Malacandra have roleclaimed. While Mal's is too new to have any opinion on, Pleonast's is now two Days old and there have been no signs of a counterclaim. If they are both true, that means that the Cultist is either FlyingCowOfDoom, Sachertorte , neither or maybe both. I don't know which; I wouldn't put it past Kat to deliberately pick four genuine Believers.

I tend to believe the hypothesis that Hal Briston investigated Sachertorte and cleared him, insofar as anyone can be cleared by an investigation. That doesn't invalidate DiggitCamara's “Sachertorte the Prophet” hypothesis.

On rereading some of Yesterday's stuff I did have some suspicion of Pygmy Rugger. This started after Queuing showed that a large part of PR's output had little or no real content. Today he's been much more active.

I'm not sure whether PR realised the implications of his advocacy of the Night 6 Conversion theory. Conventional wisdom evolved over M3 was that the scum should convert as late as possible. The only reason to use the power earlier is the possible loss of that power by losing the Prophet. If that nearly happened Yesterday, scaring the Cult into converting before killing all the conversion-blockers and immunes were killed, then PR and Mal were the lead suspects. To my mind, the Prophet pushing the idea that recruitment was used while himself being a main suspect for the role is suicide. Thus I don't see PR as scum because of this.

The other players don't even give me that much to work with.

I wouldn't mind an extension, because it would give me the chance to go over things again with a fresher mind tomorrow afternoon. So I'm going to vote Sachertorte.

zuma
08-09-2007, 09:01 PM
Like many people, I've wondered about whether Kat included a Cultist in her Four FOS's (back in post 1020). So far, Pleonast and Malacandra have roleclaimed. While Mal's is too new to have any opinion on, Pleonast's is now two Days old and there have been no signs of a counterclaim. If they are both true, that means that the Cultist is either FlyingCowOfDoom, Sachertorte , neither or maybe both.

The problem with removing Pleonast from suspicion based on his role-claim not being counterclaimed is that all we know is that he is the secret role. We don't know if he's scum or town.

Question for Pleonast: Without giving anything away, is there a way for you to prove your alignment at some point in the game?

Fretful Porpentine
08-09-2007, 09:17 PM
I'm not sure whether PR realised the implications of his advocacy of the Night 6 Conversion theory. Conventional wisdom evolved over M3 was that the scum should convert as late as possible. The only reason to use the power earlier is the possible loss of that power by losing the Prophet. If that nearly happened Yesterday, scaring the Cult into converting before killing all the conversion-blockers and immunes were killed, then PR and Mal were the lead suspects. To my mind, the Prophet pushing the idea that recruitment was used while himself being a main suspect for the role is suicide. Thus I don't see PR as scum because of this.
That's a good point, and one that I hadn't considered -- BUT on the other hand, suppose PR is scum and he knows the Cult didn't convert; couldn't he be trying to sow paranoia and trick the town into dunking an innocent power role? In that scenario, he might not spot how easily the theory could backfire on him until it was too late. (By the way, I'm not discounting the possibility of conversion by any means, but if Malacandra really is the Disciple, I'm going to place my bets on last night being a successful block. His list suggests that he's been playing the role actively and making a real effort to second-guess the scum rather than self-protecting, and IMO this is the style of play most likely to pay off.)
I'm beginning to wonder if Hal left any breadcrumbs. We seem to keep shooting ourselves in the foot trying to interpret what the hell he did.
No freakin' kidding. My only guess is that he investigated people he thought were the Apprentice on both nights, found that they were town-aligned, and didn't want to draw any more attention to them than they'd already drawn to themselves. Still, it would be nice to have a few hints about people we could trust.

Zeriel
08-09-2007, 09:34 PM
Okay, since it's a choice now between some people I think are scum and some people I think ain't.

I'm going with my gut, since analysis is not my strong suit. I'm uncomfortable voting for Diggit at this time, so...

vote Pygmy Rugger.

Queuing
08-09-2007, 10:20 PM
Unofficial Vote Count (updated once again):

Pygmy Rugger(4) - FlyingCowOfDoom, cookies,Fretful, zeriel
DiggitCamara(3) - Idle Thoughts, amrussell, Kyrie Eleison
amrussell (2) NAF, queuing
sachertorte(2) - DiggitCamara, mhaye.
Malacandra(1) - USC
FCOD (1) - Pleonast
cookies (1) - hockey monkey

It seems like we have 2 hours left.

IMO we are having way to many single votes. I know the general play is to always vote whom you think is scum the most, but this is not a conventional game. Maybe we need to start garnering some sort of consensus about who to go for?

Those people who have the vote on sachertorte---come on, he can't defend himself. By our acquiescence to allowing him to stay in the game with no sub and with no demand of a modkill we also basically gave him a get out of jail free card. Hence the votes for him are cop outs.

How about looking at the top 3 and deciding amongst them? Or do you honestly think all 3 of those are believers? This is directed at all of the single voters. As you stated pleonast we mustn't allow this to be a solely scum decided vote, which it could be by the adherence to voting for whom you think is most likely to go.


To add, just in case I die tonight---mhaye makes another safe, late cop out vote. If anyone else had a vote on you I would switch in a second. I will start the Day with your name in blue.

Queuing
08-09-2007, 10:21 PM
How about looking at the top 3 and deciding amongst them? Or do you honestly think all 3 of those are believers? This is directed at all of the single voters. As you stated pleonast we mustn't allow this to be a solely scum decided vote, which it could be by the adherence to voting for whom you think is most likely to go.


the last sentence should read:


most likely to be SCUM not GO.

Queuing
08-09-2007, 10:25 PM
Blaster Master can we have an official vote before you end the day? I will change to force I tie but I want to make sure that I make it a tie accurately

Santo Rugger
08-09-2007, 10:27 PM
<snip>
By the way, Pygmy Rugger, how come you haven't voted yet?
<snip>

*shrug* Because my vote doesn't really matter right now. I could vote for you to try and tie it up, but then you'd just change yours to me. That's not productive to the town. I've done my best to try posting since I took over and caught up, but Queuing pounded me to death until he got me killed. amrussell can do the same thing, but hopefully I can convince -somebody- to vote amrussell, also.

Sorry my previous players didn't participate, guys.

Queuing
08-09-2007, 10:34 PM
Non voters:

sachertorte - excused
malacandra - how come? another non-vote after a role claim? I freaking hope not
zumav2 - ?

This is a rather important vote, how about coming in and standing up?

Top 3:

PR: 4 votes
DC: 3 votes
AMrussell: 3 votes.

Please choose one of these 3.

Zeriel
08-09-2007, 10:36 PM
Hrm. Mhaye is also showing up in blue from me tomorrow first thing.

I'm consciously going with a strategy of playing from the gut toDay. Intellectual evaluation of the players is failing me until we have more evidence in the form of dead scum. Therefore, I do this because my stomach says to:

unvote Pygmy Rugger
vote amrussell

zuma
08-09-2007, 10:36 PM
Those people who have the vote on sachertorte---come on, he can't defend himself. By our acquiescence to allowing him to stay in the game with no sub and with no demand of a modkill we also basically gave him a get out of jail free card. Hence the votes for him are cop outs

I disagree. "we" did not "acquiesce". BM made his decision based on our input, and most likely scum's input as well. And god knows what other factors. I agreed with BM's decision, but I don't view it as a "get out of jail free" card.

Zeriel
08-09-2007, 10:37 PM
I realize I'm playing erratically today. That's consciously done.

I'd had my suspicions on amrussell too, but hadn't voted for him because he wasn't a frontrunner. He is now.

Zeriel
08-09-2007, 10:39 PM
Okay, Zuma, you're here. Put some blue down.

Queuing
08-09-2007, 10:39 PM
I disagree. "we" did not "acquiesce". BM made his decision based on our input, and most likely scum's input as well. And god knows what other factors. I agreed with BM's decision, but I don't view it as a "get out of jail free" card.


I think if we had made a big stink about it we could have influenced his decision. One of the reasons I am very much against this extended absences is because I am hesitant to ever vote for someone who cannot defend themselves. This is particularly true of a player who had been talking.

vote please?

Hockey Monkey
08-09-2007, 10:48 PM
I will relinquish my singular vote. Unvote Cookies.

I was waiting for Zeriel, since he is the only person in this game I trust. I know it's a cop out, but since Queuing is calling for no single votes, and I don't have any good suspicions, I'll vote amrussell, and hope he's scum.

Queuing
08-09-2007, 10:49 PM
I've done my best to try posting since I took over and caught up, but Queuing pounded me to death until he got me killed.

And I unvoted you when you started posting things that were not just fluff. Sorry for the pounding/insults/etc but it was done to make you talk. Consider yourself lucky I don't have any bamboo!

Santo Rugger
08-09-2007, 10:51 PM
And I unvoted you when you started posting things that were not just fluff. Sorry for the pounding/insults/etc but it was done to make you talk. Consider yourself lucky I don't have any bamboo!

I do like it rough... but not that rough! *ouch, ouch* Ok, ok! No more fluff!

Queuing
08-09-2007, 10:55 PM
I will relinquish my singular vote. Unvote Cookies.

I was waiting for Zeriel, since he is the only person in this game I trust. I know it's a cop out, but since Queuing is calling for no single votes, and I don't have any good suspicions, I'll vote amrussell and hope he's scum.

Hey, you don't have to listen to me. If you honestly believe all 3 of the top vote getters are all good guys then say so. I just think we need some sort of consensus going here, some sort of collective action and belief. It is good to say here is who I think is most likely scum, and see if you can convince others, but if that is not happening the trail has been laid, your suspicions will be known. Then it might be best to focus on the top vote getters (ideally sooner then 2 hours before the deadline) so we can all discuss and come to some sort of consensus. Right now everyone is just going on their own, which is admirable, but perhaps not the best course of action in this present version of the game.

Perhaps this focused discussion of a few targets will help clear about some of the mass confusion that a lot of us are feeling.

zuma
08-09-2007, 10:58 PM
Okay, Zuma, you're here. Put some blue down.

I'm still recovering from the Malacandra claim :)

In all honesty, I probably should have spent more time toDay looking over other suspects. That said, vote: Pygmy Rugger. Subject to change as time allows.

Queuing
08-09-2007, 11:00 PM
Non voters:

sachertorte - excused
malacandra - how come? another non-vote after a role claim? I freaking hope not

This is a rather important vote, how about coming in and standing up?

Top 3:

AMrussell: 5 votes.
PR: 4 votes
DC: 3 votes

Please choose one of these 3.

So those who are here, do we want a tie? Another 12 hours?

zuma
08-09-2007, 11:05 PM
I think if we had made a big stink about it we could have influenced his decision.

And how do you know it was not scum making the big stink?

Top 3:

AMrussell: 5 votes.
PR: 4 votes
DC: 3 votes

Please choose one of these 3.

I'm not liking this bullying and attempting to manage the vote at all, Queuing. Chastizing sachertorte voters and setting up your little list rubs me the wrong way. You haven't been on my radar in this game yet, but you are now.

FOS: Queuing

Queuing
08-09-2007, 11:07 PM
And how do you know it was not scum making the big stink?



I'm not liking this bullying and attempting to manage the vote at all, Queuing. Chastizing sachertorte voters and setting up your little list rubs me the wrong way. You haven't been on my radar in this game yet, but you are now.

FOS: Queuing


Fair enough. It was a risk I knew when I decided to do it. I will answer any questions you want to ask me (in fact I would welcome more participation from you) tomorrow.

I am guessing that means you are not in favour of a tie?

zuma
08-09-2007, 11:12 PM
Fair enough. It was a risk I knew when I decided to do it. I will answer any questions you want to ask me (in fact I would welcome more participation from you) tomorrow.

I am guessing that means you are not in favour of a tie?

Yes, I am in favor of a tie. And stuff the condecending attitude.
In fact, let's expand your list a little.

unvote: Pygmy Rugger
vote: Queuing

Queuing
08-09-2007, 11:15 PM
Yes, I am in favor of a tie. And stuff the condecending attitude.
In fact, let's expand your list a little.

unvote: Pygmy Rugger
vote: Queuing

Well that wouldn't expand my list at all. My list was of just the top vote getters. This vote just gives me one.

Nor does it make it a tie. It in fact makes it harder for tie.

AMrussell: 5 votes.
PR: 3 votes
DC: 3 votes

zuma
08-09-2007, 11:19 PM
Well that wouldn't expand my list at all. My list was of just the top vote getters. This vote just gives me one.

Nor does it make it a tie. It in fact makes it harder for tie.

AMrussell: 5 votes.
PR: 3 votes
DC: 3 votes

There's still a couple hours left. I'm not going anywhere.

I encourage anyone who comes in here in the next couple hours to put some votes on you. In fact, could a couple AMRussel voters change them to Queuing? That would give us a nice 4-way tie.

If not, I'll change it back to PR.

Queuing
08-09-2007, 11:21 PM
Good, so you will do what you can to make it a tie? I don't think I can stay up until 1am.

zuma
08-09-2007, 11:22 PM
Yes.

Santo Rugger
08-09-2007, 11:24 PM
What does a tie do again?

Queuing
08-09-2007, 11:24 PM
Extends the Day 12 hours.

USCDiver
08-09-2007, 11:45 PM
Just got off work and made it through a flurry of 2 pages worth of posts....

Stupid roll-claims keep screwing with me. My scumdar is so fucked up right now, I don't know what to think about anyone. But let's go with what we were already thinking anyway.

unvote malacandra

My next target was going to be Pygmy Rugger anyway, so let's go there and see if we can't get closer to a tie at the front of the pack.

vote Pygmy Rugger

USCDiver
08-09-2007, 11:48 PM
By the way... the Day was scheduled to end at 11pm, does Blaster Master's post saying he'd do the Dusk around 12-1a extend the scheduled end of the Day? I was under the impression it was just a delay between the Day ending and the Dusk being posted.

BM, do any of the posts after 11pm count at this point? Do they continue to count up until you make the official Dusk post or a 'this day has ended, Dusk coming soon' post?

zuma
08-09-2007, 11:55 PM
Myeh. I don't want to risk the day ending with a vote on someone which will probably do no good today. I'll be taking a good look at [q]Queuing[/b] tomorrow, though.

unvote: Queuing
vote: Pygmy Rugger

USCDiver
08-10-2007, 01:15 AM
Here's what I have as of 2833

Unofficial Vote Count:

amrussell(5) - NAF1138, Queuing, Pygmy Rugger, Zeriel, Hockey Monkey
Pygmy Rugger(5) - FlyingCowOfDoom, Cookies, Fretful Porpentine, USCDiver, Zuma
DiggitCamara(3) - Idle Thoughts, amrussell, Kyrie Eleison
sachertorte(2) - DiggitCamara, MHaye
FlyingCowOfDoom(1) - Pleonast


There have been 16 votes out of 18 players alive (17 anticipated votes with sachertorte being absent toDay)

Yet to vote toDay: malacandra (what the hell?!)

This gives us a tie at the presumed end of the Day. However, I'm still not 100% sure votes changed or made after 11pm will count. Blaster Master does not appear to be online at this time to make a ruling or a Dusk post. Neither does malacandra seem to be around to make a vote.

From the original Rules Post (Post 4)
<snip>

Any votes or un-votes made after the deadline (even if I have not officially announced it) will not be counted.

<snip>

If at the end of the day two or more candidates are tied, the day will be extended 12-hours. During that time, you may change your vote as often as you like, but you may only change it to one of the candidates who was in the tie. If two or more candidates are still tied at the end of the extended period, the lynchee will be selected randomly from the tied candidates.

So we're still a little in the dark (hehe) on when the official deadline is or if we are even in fact tied. If we are in a tie, then most of the 12 hour clock will be during the EDT night when a majority of players will be sleeping (including me in the next few minutes).

Truth be told, I've spent approximately 30 minutes formulating this post in the hopes that malacandra (or someone else) will come in and break the tie or that Blaster Master will come in and rule on the end of Days. But it looks like me, Pygmy and zuma are the only players around...

Oh well.. guess I'll hit submit

Blaster Master
08-10-2007, 01:16 AM
BM, do any of the posts after 11pm count at this point? Do they continue to count up until you make the official Dusk post or a 'this day has ended, Dusk coming soon' post?
Any votes made after the deadline will count only if there was a tie at 11PM and the votes made afterward were for one of those in the tie. I will address this when I get my vote spreadsheet up to date which shouldn't take too long.

Blaster Master
08-10-2007, 02:00 AM
Okay, I just realized my post earlier was a little unclear as it might have looked like I was possibly extending the Day. I meant it simply as a reminder that, though I wasn't around to post the requested post counts the last day or two, I would make the time to do it tonight, if a few hours late. According to my vote count (which I will post presently), there was no tie at 11PM, so there will be no extension.

Blaster Master
08-10-2007, 02:02 AM
amrussell (5) - NAF1138, Queuing, Pygmy Rugger, Zeriel, Hockey Monkey
Pygmy Rugger (4) - FlyingCowOfDoom, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, Fretful Porpentine, zuma
DiggitCamara (3) - Idle Thoughts, amrussell, Kyrie Eleison
sachertorte (2) - DiggitCamara, MHaye
FlyingCowOfDoom (1) - Pleonast
Malacandra (1) - USCDiver


Voter - Action - Votee - Post
Queuing - Vote - Pygmy Rugger - 2651
Pygmy Rugger - Vote - Hockey Monkey - 2653
Idle Thoughts - Vote - DiggitCamara - 2667
amrussell - Vote - DiggitCamara - 2669
zuma - Vote - USCDiver - 2670
FlyingCowOfDoom - Vote - Pygmy Rugger - 2678
DiggitCamara - Vote - Kyrie Eleison - 2679
Kyrie Eleison - Vote - DiggitCamara - 2686
Pygmy Rugger - Unvote - Hockey Monkey - 2700
Pleonast - Vote - Malacandra - 2707
Queuing - Unvote - Pygmy Rugger - 2715
Queuing - Vote - Malacandra - 2715
Fretful Porpentine - Vote - Malacandra - 2732
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies - Vote - Pygmy Rugger - 2733
zuma - Unvote - USCDiver - 2738
zuma - Vote - Malacandra - 2738
USCDiver - Vote - Malacandra - 2744
NAF1138 - Vote - amrussell - 2746
Zeriel - Vote - DiggitCamara - 2748
DiggitCamara - Unvote - Kyrie Eleison - 2757
DiggitCamara - Vote - sachetorte - 2757
Queuing - Unvote - Malacandra - 2764
Queuing - Vote - amrussell - 2764
Fretful Porpentine - Unvote - Malacandra - 2768
Fretful Porpentine - Vote - Pygmy Rugger - 2768
Pleonast - Unvote - Malacandra - 2779
Pleonast - Vote - FlyingCowOfDoom - 2779
Zeriel - Unvote - DiggitCamara - 2785
Hockey Monkey - Vote - ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies - 2788
zuma - Unvote - Malacandra - 2798
MHaye - Vote - sachetorte - 2801
Zeriel - Vote - Pygmy Rugger - 2804
Pygmy Rugger - Vote - amrussell - 2808
Zeriel - Unvote - Pygmy Rugger - 2810
Zeriel - Vote - amrussell - 2810
Hockey Monkey - Unvote - ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies - 2815
Hockey Monkey - Vote - amrussell - 2815
zuma - Vote - Pygmy Rugger - 2819

Blaster Master
08-10-2007, 02:27 AM
Yet another day of the trials had come and gone, but the Days activities were not without mark. The dunk-wagon very quickly grew in favor of Malacandra, but before it could gain too much steam, he claimed to be a Disciple of a renowned and powerful priest from a distant village. He claimed that he had followed the priest here in hopes that, though his powers were meager in comparison, perhaps he could assist him in some way. For the moment at least, the villagers seemed to believe him and redirected their attention elsewhere. And, in the end, it was the witty amrussell who was chosen.

He remained quiet, but visibly nervous as he was shackled and dragged toward the pool of water. As he came to the edge, he looked upon it with fear in his eyes, unwilling to take the final step on his own, until he was finally shoved in. With a grand display of flailing and hollering he plunged into the pool, and with hardly a hesitant moment, he quickly floated to the surface.

What!? Some sort of parlor trick. This was a whole mess of shenanigans, and somehow he'd come to center of their horrible games. No more! Before he could be wrested from the water, he pulled himself out and ran into the horrified crowd. He would find those responsible for voting for him, and he would slay them with the very shackles around his wrists.

It was only a moment before he spotted Zeriel among the spectators. As a wry smirk grew upon his face, he lunged for him. Yet, just as he was close enough to strangle him with the chains, the business end of a long sword, covered in fresh blood, emerged from his chest. A guard had stabbed him from behind, straight through the heart.

He collapsed to the floor. A weak scowl formed upon his face as he spoke his final words: "Your faiths will be the end of you all..."

amrussell, the Psychopath, has been killed.

*Note, the Psychopath is only activated through a Night kill attempt. Because he was dunked prior to his activation, he can win with the Town/Non-Believers.
-----------------------------------------------------
The Night will end at 2:30 AM EDT on Sunday or when all Night instructions are received.

Blaster Master
08-10-2007, 02:30 AM
Alive
2 USCDiver
3 Idle Thoughts
5 Hockey Monkey
7 NAF1138
8 sachertorte
10 Malacandra
12 Kyrie Eleison
14 Pleonast
16 Fretful Porpentine
17 Pygmy Rugger
19 FlyingCowOfDoom
21 Queuing
22 Zeriel
23 zuma [Ver. 2]
24 ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
25 DiggitCamara [Ver. 2]
27 MHaye

Dead
11 Mtgman - Non-Believer - Day One
4 zuma [Ver. 1] - Citizen - Night One
1 Kat - Cultist - Day Two
6 storyteller0910 - Monk - Night Two
15 DiggitCamara [Ver. 1] - Crusader - Night Two
20 Scuba_Ben - Citizen - Day Three
13 Hal Briston - Oracle - Night Three
29 MadTheSwine - Citizen - Day Four
9 SnakesCatLady - Citizen - Night Four
30 Captain Klutz - Non-Believer - Day Five
26 HazelNutCoffee - Citizen - Night Five
28 fluiddruid - Citizen - Day Six
18 amrussell - Psychopath - Day Seven

Substitutions
Kyrie Eleison (Repl. Clockwork Jackal )
Nava (Repl. Captain Carrot )
Kat (Repl. ArizonaTeach )
DiggitCamara [Ver. 2] (Repl. Autolycus )
Zuma [Ver. 2] (Repl. MonkeyMensch )
amrussell (Repl. Pasta )
Pygmy Rugger (Repl. Nava )

Stanislaus
08-10-2007, 03:11 AM
You foollls! I'l kil you al! Oh, how much fun would that have been. Obviously for the best from your point of view, but damn! Stil, that's the price I pay for letting my wife use the computer for once.

Good luck town...

Malacandra
08-10-2007, 04:46 AM
That could have been a lot worse, certainly. Pure luck's the only way to nail the Psychopath, but the town has to be better off with the loose cannon out of the running.

Sorry I didn't come in and vote when asked (post 2820) but while I was technically awake at 4am my time, it wasn't by choice and I had no plans to fire up the computer.

Zeriel
08-10-2007, 08:42 AM
*deep breath*

Okay, NOW I need a drink.

Queuing
08-10-2007, 09:09 AM
Well that isn't to bad.

So just to make sure, none of the votes or talking after 11pm should have happened?

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-10-2007, 09:20 AM
So just to make sure, none of the votes or talking after 11pm should have happened?That's how it usually works and I don't see any reason why it'd be different in this case.

I don't really feel like celebrating this lynch.

--FCOD

Blaster Master
08-10-2007, 09:32 AM
Well that isn't to bad.

So just to make sure, none of the votes or talking after 11pm should have happened?

In theory, yes. However, I accept the blame for that one for not being more careful with my wording. Either way, no harm done, it's not like it happened after you knew the identity of amrussell.

Queuing
08-10-2007, 09:37 AM
In theory, yes. However, I accept the blame for that one for not being more careful with my wording. Either way, no harm done, it's not like it happened after you knew the identity of amrussell.


But the votes won't be in the official vote count that you always post correct? So if we think they mean something or just want to remember we will have to do it ourselves?


Dammit! :)

USCDiver
08-10-2007, 10:59 AM
Well this certainly changes things...

Blaster Master
08-10-2007, 11:09 AM
But the votes won't be in the official vote count that you always post correct? So if we think they mean something or just want to remember we will have to do it ourselves?


Dammit! :)

Yup, they are not in my official vote count because I think it could only complicate matters when trying to determine "official" votes from "unofficial" ones. :D

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-10-2007, 12:02 PM
Well it isn't the worst thing that could've happened, and the way this game has been going I'd say that makes it a good thing.

Zeriel
08-10-2007, 02:52 PM
Well, now that the bartender's dead, and apparently crazy, I suppose I ought pour my own whiskey.

MHaye
08-10-2007, 03:16 PM
Seems so.

Pour me one while you're there? I think I need something.

Zeriel
08-10-2007, 03:33 PM
I'm only having the one myself--moderation in service of Nairu and all--but you can have the rest of the bottle.

Santo Rugger
08-10-2007, 04:46 PM
That's good, right? :)

<Out of Character> I'm going to an awesome "Muzik Fest" in Santa Fe this weekend, so I probably won't be checking in till Monday </OoC>

USCDiver
08-11-2007, 02:16 AM
Ain't no way I'm letting us sink to Page 2!

Pleonast
08-11-2007, 11:28 AM
Is it morning yet?

Hockey Monkey
08-11-2007, 01:19 PM
Not yet, but if you are starving for action, check out Idle Thoughts' game (http://psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=asylumlane). It's getting extremely interesting.

USCDiver
08-11-2007, 02:15 PM
I was looking through Idle Thought's game, but I can't find a post that has rules and roles... which thread is it in?

MHaye
08-11-2007, 02:18 PM
I was looking through Idle Thought's game, but I can't find a post that has rules and roles... which thread is it in?
It's in the Rules/Roles/Updates board.

Here (http://psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=rules).

Hockey Monkey
08-11-2007, 02:19 PM
I was looking through Idle Thought's game, but I can't find a post that has rules and roles... which thread is it in?

Right here! (http://psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=rules&action=display&thread=1184627730)

The only thing he changed (in another thread) was the editing rule. Now - no editing allowed.

The format is a little hard to jump into, but if you are in from the beginning of the game, it's actually much easier to navigate. The Days and Nights are given separate threads.

USCDiver
08-11-2007, 02:21 PM
I see that I didn't go 'Up' a level from the link Hockey Monkey provided. I'm not used to this format for a message board.

Hal Briston
08-11-2007, 06:51 PM
I see that I didn't go 'Up' a level from the link Hockey Monkey provided. I'm not used to this format for a message board.
[otherworldly voice]
It took some getting used to (which I did in the Hispaniola game), but once you get used to it, it's far, far superior to playing on here (not that I won't continue to rabidly play here, of course).
[/ov]

Blaster Master
08-12-2007, 02:33 AM
Holy Crap! I'm actually posting on time... expect the Dawn post presently.

Blaster Master
08-12-2007, 03:04 AM
It was a moment of mild celebration for the town. Sure, they hadn't caught a cultist, but at least they'd caught a Psychopath twisted on ending them, cultist and Nairuvian alike. While a few members remained at the bar with a few drinks, hopeful that it was a Day to finally begin to swing momentum their way, a few of the more quiet ones filtered out earlier. And it wasn't long after that that the bar was empty.

And much like the previous Night, it was very quiet... no screams, no dancing zombies... barely even the whispering wind and the summertime crickets.

Then came the next morning, and as the villagers slowly trickled in, a headcount was done, and all but one seemed to be accounted for... after an endless, dreadful moment a voice spoke up, "Hey, where's Fretful Porpentine?"

Quickly, the mob ran through the streets to her home. As they approached, they came upon a closed door. The crowd erupted in unheard whispers before one person stepped forward and knocked on the door... it creaked open. It was clear now the lock had been forcibly openned. And there she was, laying face down, surrounded by burned out candles and reagents. It seemed to have been a less violent death... at least until she was turned over.

Unlike the previous victims, all of whom had some form of ritual, this seemed less a sacrifice, and more a violent mutilation. Had they not known her identity previously, surely, not one among them could now recognize her face; the skin, and all sensory organs were gone, and in not the customary precision. Even less could be said of her body, which had been eviscerated. Parts of her entrails having remained upon the spot where she laid, in diced pieces, and others seemingly... gone.

Surely, the cultists were eager to see this one go, and it didn't take long to figure out why... the candles, the reagents, and the robes she was wearing...

Fretful Porpentine, the Priest, has been slain.

-------------------------------------------------------------
The Day will end at 3:00 AM EDT on Thursday.

Blaster Master
08-12-2007, 03:13 AM
Alive
2 USCDiver
3 Idle Thoughts
5 Hockey Monkey
7 NAF1138
8 sachertorte
10 Malacandra
12 Kyrie Eleison
14 Pleonast
17 Pygmy Rugger
19 FlyingCowOfDoom
21 Queuing
22 Zeriel
23 zuma [Ver. 2]
24 ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
25 DiggitCamara [Ver. 2]
27 MHaye

Dead
11 Mtgman - Non-Believer - Day One
4 zuma [Ver. 1] - Citizen - Night One
1 Kat - Cultist - Day Two
6 storyteller0910 - Monk - Night Two
15 DiggitCamara [Ver. 1] - Crusader - Night Two
20 Scuba_Ben - Citizen - Day Three
13 Hal Briston - Oracle - Night Three
29 MadTheSwine - Citizen - Day Four
9 SnakesCatLady - Citizen - Night Four
30 Captain Klutz - Non-Believer - Day Five
26 HazelNutCoffee - Citizen - Night Five
28 fluiddruid - Citizen - Day Six
18 amrussell - Psychopath - Day Seven
16 Fretful Porpentine - Priest - Night Seven

Substitutions
Kyrie Eleison (Repl. Clockwork Jackal )
Nava (Repl. Captain Carrot )
Kat (Repl. ArizonaTeach )
DiggitCamara [Ver. 2] (Repl. Autolycus )
Zuma [Ver. 2] (Repl. MonkeyMensch )
amrussell (Repl. Pasta )
Pygmy Rugger (Repl. Nava )

USCDiver
08-12-2007, 04:03 AM
Well this is certainly bad news for the town... but at least maybe we can get some useful data from some patterns that may be finally emerging from the static of 30 players posting for 2 months.

Firstly, we should revisit the no-kill night briefly now that we can strategize... obviously the 'activate psychopath' option can be removed from that list. That basically leaves:
1)Blocked/Protected kill
2)Blocked/Protected/Unconvertible conversion
3)Successful conversion
4)the ever popular Deliberate No-Kill

I think we can throw #4 out, it was hardly mentioned in the previous discussions anyway. As for the other three, I'm not going to devote much time to trying to guess which is the most likely.

I was, however, a little bit surprised to see Fretful Porpentine turn up in a power role, because she hadn't really been on my radar much. As such, I revisited her posting over the last Day to see if she was on to something that may have raised the suspicious of the Cultist.

During a discussion of Pygmy Rugger's string of posts which seemed to be steering the discussion toward the 'Recruit' possibility from the night before, in response to this post by MHaye:
I'm not sure whether PR realised the implications of his advocacy of the Night 6 Conversion theory. Conventional wisdom evolved over M3 was that the scum should convert as late as possible. The only reason to use the power earlier is the possible loss of that power by losing the Prophet. If that nearly happened Yesterday, scaring the Cult into converting before killing all the conversion-blockers and immunes were killed, then PR and Mal were the lead suspects. To my mind, the Prophet pushing the idea that recruitment was used while himself being a main suspect for the role is suicide. Thus I don't see PR as scum because of this.

Fretful posted the following


That's a good point, and one that I hadn't considered -- BUT on the other hand, suppose PR is scum and he knows the Cult didn't convert; couldn't he be trying to sow paranoia and trick the town into dunking an innocent power role? In that scenario, he might not spot how easily the theory could backfire on him until it was too late. (By the way, I'm not discounting the possibility of conversion by any means, but if Malacandra really is the Disciple, I'm going to place my bets on last night being a successful block. His list suggests that he's been playing the role actively and making a real effort to second-guess the scum rather than self-protecting, and IMO this is the style of play most likely to pay off.)


In addition Fretful's final vote was for Pygmy Rugger making me all the more suspicious.

I'm going to go ahead and vote Pygmy Rugger.

Zeriel
08-12-2007, 09:39 AM
Sheesh, the scum are just entirely too on top of shit this game. I'd feel better if we had killed at least one more of 'em.

As promised yesterDay, for tossing out entirely too many "Safe" votes and generally flying under the radar,

vote MHaye

I don't like his pattern of always taking the safe vote--is he contrarian, is he avoiding getting his hands dirty?


As for the no-kill night, I'd say we should still leave all the possibilites open--after all, the scum are so far ahead they can AFFORD to fuck with us with a no-kill.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-12-2007, 03:07 PM
I'm having a great deal of difficulty in deciding who to vote for.

I looked at a list of the current players, excised myself and the roleclaiming players; with three of them there has been sufficient time to counterclaim, and no-one has. Malacandra's claim is too new to have been properly evaluated, and the next few hours probably won't be enough time.

All my suspicions of the thirteen remaining players are so thin. They mostly boil down to reeds so slender I'm ashamed to base a vote on them.You say something like this every day, and frankly, I'm tired of your non-voting. It's bad for the town to not vote. Even when you do vote, it doesn't really count because you vote for people not likely to be lynched. By doing this, you're preventing the town from analyzing your voting pattern. That's scummy. I'm putting my suspicion of Pygmy Rugger on the side for now, and I'm going to vote MHaye.

--FCOD

Idle Thoughts
08-12-2007, 07:33 PM
Here's another quick check in. I'll only be in Chicago for another full day (tomorrow) and then I'll be back and posting as much as I always used to. So before this Day ends, actually. I just spent the last twenty minutes catching up and reading the last Day's events and even right now I'm in a bit of a hurry as my fiancee and I are going out. But before I go, I will throw in another vote for DiggitCamara as RIGHT now, he's the only one I feel safe for voting for (for one) and (for two) I don't want to take/run the risk of missing out a chance to actually vote before this Day ends. I'm PRETTY SURE I'll be back before it ends, but just in case, I, at least, want everyone to know where my suspicions lied. Although on my return, I will have time to read more fully in-depth and will possibly change it pending further reflection (and when I'm not so rushed and busy :p).

R.I.P Fretful[b] though and [b]amrussell. For the latter, however, only because he wasn't activated yet...although at this point I think he'd have had a better chance at hitting scum anyway.

I'll try to check in and post tomorrow one more time, or possibly twice.....but Wednesday, though, I'll, for sure, be back online my full time.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-12-2007, 08:52 PM
Only a couple of people chimed in with responses to my curiosity as to other players' views on sachertorte. I guess that's that.

Maybe it is too obvious of an approach, but I have this itch in the back of my mind about the folks who have been vocal in their suspicions of those of us who have voted for someone after that someone has role-claimed. I will dig up specifics later, as I don't have much time to post right now. It seems like a solid wifom tactic though. Have one of the scum fake claim, and then sew a default level of suspicion around anyone who sometime after votes for cliamed players.

Queuing
08-12-2007, 11:22 PM
Since the only real information we seem to have is votes and the voting pattern, and mhaye has been very weak in both reasoning and timing of his votes (as I said near the end of the last Day) I am fully in favour of this:

dunk mhaye

Malacandra
08-13-2007, 04:22 AM
Oh, fornicazione. In retrospect it looks as though Fretful's commentary on my purported blocking history may have given the scum a clue both as to who she was and notification that she wouldn't be self-protecting. :(

I need to request a substitute - when we started in June I didn't think we'd still be running in mid-August. Anyone want to take over? ::hands over chasuble with a stonking great target on the back::

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-13-2007, 09:11 AM
I need to request a substitute - when we started in June I didn't think we'd still be running in mid-August. Anyone want to take over? ::hands over chasuble with a stonking great target on the back::Not.....fucking......cool..... :mad:

--FCOD

Malacandra
08-13-2007, 09:17 AM
Not.....fucking......cool..... :mad:

--FCOD

I'm so sorry. Shall I cancel the family holiday in France or arrange a satellite Internet link by the end of the week?

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-13-2007, 10:05 AM
I'm so sorry. Shall I cancel the family holiday in France or arrange a satellite Internet link by the end of the week?No, I'd prefer you not join games like that that frequently last months if you can't finish them. Mafia II (54 days) and III (69 days) both lasted longer than this game (49 days, so far).

--FCOD

Malacandra
08-13-2007, 10:07 AM
No, I'd prefer you not join games like that that frequently last months if you can't finish them. Mafia II (54 days) and III (69 days) both lasted longer than this game (49 days, so far).

--FCOD

Duly noted.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-13-2007, 10:17 AM
$#!+ happens. I hope we can find a sub for you, Mal, though I'd be fine with a mod kill too. Have a good time in France.

Queuing
08-13-2007, 10:28 AM
Hmm, I think this game has taught me not to play one of these in the summer. This is really breaking the game. I too think it is (past) time for some modkills.

Malacandra
08-13-2007, 10:31 AM
*stands against adobe wall, scorns blindfold*

Pleonast
08-13-2007, 10:34 AM
Not looking good.

MHaye's voting record does look very scummy. I'll be happy to vote for him, but I want us to consider other possibilities.

Why did Malacandra not vote at all? If you're really a Townie, we need your vote. To offset all the scums' votes, you know. You had several days to pick someone. Running out of time just doesn't cut it any more. The way you claimed (revealing info that's best not told) and the lack of a vote makes me seriously doubt your claim. I won't vote for you unless the real Disciple claims, but please be more helpful to the Town.

FlyingCowOfDoom's voting record is not particularly helpful either, similar to MHaye's. I still think he's a likely scum.

Idle Thoughts is the scum hiding in the open. Mostly helpful, but plays selfishly at critical moments.

HockeyMonkey is looking to be a good candidate as well. I can't see the scum choosing to not kill someone. That prolongs the game, and with the Apprentice still out there, it's too risky for the scum not to kill someone who could be him. Recruitment is the only reasonable possibility. And Hockey is the most obvious candidate. Whether that means she is the recruitee, is a WIFOM problem.

My wild paranoia tells me Mal is the Prophet, Idle is Cult, and Hockey is the Recruit. MHaye and FlyingCow, I'm not as sure about, but they don't seem Town to me. Who should I vote for? Not, Mal, because I'll need to see a counter-claim first. It's too much of a risk to dunk a claimed power role, no matter how scummy the claimer is. So, my vote falls to
Vote Idle Thoughts
As always, I'll switch my vote to any on my suspect list, if my first choice is unpopular.


Out of game: I'll be taking a two-week family vacation starting Aug 25. I'm not certain what my connectivity will be. I expect to be able to read and post occasionally, but maybe not.

Hockey Monkey
08-13-2007, 10:37 AM
The remaining players who have not role claimed:

Autolycus/DiggitCamara2
Captain Carrot/Nava/pygmy rugger
Clockwork Jackal/Kyrie Eleison
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
FlyingCowOfDoom
Idle Thoughts
Mhaye
MonkeyMensch/zuma2
NAF1138
Queuing
sachertorte
USCDiver

12 players left with a good chance that 1/3 of them are cult, including the Prophet. Would now be a good time for the Apprentice to come forward? He/She has got to have better information than the rest of us, and it seems the Cult is quite adept at keying in on power roles. Wouldn't it be better for the town for him/her to come forward before they die and help us narrow the pool of potential drownee's. If the Apprentice has found the Avatar, I will volunteer to be the only vote for him/her with the rest of the town abstaining. Or should the remaining Monks come forward and verify each other? Or both? I'm seriously at a loss here as to what to do. I just think that we are at a point where it would be beneficial for the town to have some verified people so we can have better odds of finding scum. And if we verify more people, the scum will have a harder time deciding who to kill. I'll probably catch a lot of flak for this, but really, it's time to discuss it.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-13-2007, 10:37 AM
FlyingCowOfDoom's voting record is not particularly helpful either, similar to MHaye's. I still think he's a likely scum.What? How is my voting record similar to MHaye's??

-FCOD

Pleonast
08-13-2007, 10:39 AM
Out of game:
Reading the flak that Mal's getting--at least he's been participating in the game up to this point. What bothers me are the players who joined the game and then didn't play. That is what is bad for the game. People subbing out for planned vacations is not unreasonable. People just fading away without posting is not cool.

I'll be modding the next game here on the SDMB. I'm only going to accept 20 players total, and there will be multiple deaths per Night (from the beginning), so the next game will be shorter.

Hockey Monkey
08-13-2007, 10:41 AM
As far as the recruit goes...I'm not it. I don't think there was one. I think they may have tried to recruit Fretful Porpentine, failed, and killed her the next night.

Pleonast
08-13-2007, 10:55 AM
FlyingCowOfDoom's final vote record.

Day 1: only person to vote for NAF.
Day 2: only person to vote for Pleonast.
Day 3: voted for Pleonast, with Idle and Hazel.
Day 4: joined the Mad bandwagon.
Day 5: voted for Pleonast, after my claim, along with Mal.
Day 6: voted with many others for Pygmy.
Day 7: again voted with many others for Pygmy.

Good votes: the last two Days' votes seem legit to me.

Neutral votes: Day 4 was a huge bandwagon vote and doesn't really say anything about those on it.

Scummy votes: Day 5 is weird--very few people think it's ok to vote for a claim not countered. The Town can afford to let a scum live a Day longer, while losing a power role can be painful. Days 1-3 are useless votes--it's fine to vote for people you find suspicious, but at the end of the Day it looks scummy to avoid voting for the leading candidates. Great way to not have any links with the actual dunks.

Overall, maybe not as scummy as MHaye, but still rings the bells in my head.


On preview: good point Hockey. I still consider you a likely suspect, but there's much slimier fish to fry.

Queuing
08-13-2007, 11:30 AM
12 players left with a good chance that 1/3 of them are cult, including the Prophet. Would now be a good time for the Apprentice to come forward? He/She has got to have better information than the rest of us, and it seems the Cult is quite adept at keying in on power roles. Wouldn't it be better for the town for him/her to come forward before they die and help us narrow the pool of potential drownee's. If the Apprentice has found the Avatar, I will volunteer to be the only vote for him/her with the rest of the town abstaining. Or should the remaining Monks come forward and verify each other? Or both? I'm seriously at a loss here as to what to do. I just think that we are at a point where it would be beneficial for the town to have some verified people so we can have better odds of finding scum. And if we verify more people, the scum will have a harder time deciding who to kill. I'll probably catch a lot of flak for this, but really, it's time to discuss it.

As we know I am in favour of allowing power roles to claim when they choose. I hope that the apprentice has been leaving crumbs. If they have not been then we are fucked.

My proffered course of action is to take the 4 real life days we have. On RLD 1 and 2 people come and say their suspicions. Everyone has to have a suspicion. If not then you are an idiot or scum. People who do not come and lay out suspicions against people instantly jump up the line and become scum suspects. On Day 3 everyone votes for whom they think is most likely scum, after which we take the top 3 candidates and everyone votes for one of them.

I will admit I have no idea if this will actually accomplish anything, but it would force everyone to post who they think is scum. Then everyone can evaluate everyone else's arguments. The top 3 would know they are in danger and can claim or not. It would force some sort of consensus and would leave an easy to read but as always hard to analyze trail to follow.

As I have posted, mhaye has always voted very late in the day. This by itself would not be necessarily scummy. However almost all of these votes have been safe and not adequately (in my mind) explained. For these reasons his name is in blue.

NAF1138
08-13-2007, 11:38 AM
As we know I am in favour of allowing power roles to claim when they choose. I hope that the apprentice has been leaving crumbs. If they have not been then we are fucked.

My proffered course of action is to take the 4 real life days we have. On RLD 1 and 2 people come and say their suspicions. Everyone has to have a suspicion. If not then you are an idiot or scum. People who do not come and lay out suspicions against people instantly jump up the line and become scum suspects. On Day 3 everyone votes for whom they think is most likely scum, after which we take the top 3 candidates and everyone votes for one of them.

I will admit I have no idea if this will actually accomplish anything, but it would force everyone to post who they think is scum. Then everyone can evaluate everyone else's arguments. The top 3 would know they are in danger and can claim or not. It would force some sort of consensus and would leave an easy to read but as always hard to analyze trail to follow.

As I have posted, mhaye has always voted very late in the day. This by itself would not be necessarily scummy. However almost all of these votes have been safe and not adequately (in my mind) explained. For these reasons his name is in blue.


I think this is not a bad idea, and may even keep the apprentice safe while giving us valuable information. But it we do this, EVERYONE needs to do it. That is one of the big reasons why chrisk's plan in M2 didn't work. Also, don't list who you trust.

Me, I don't know anymore. This game has got me a little bit spun. I agree with everyone's analysis of MHaye. It looks scummy as all get out. I also agree with Pleonast about FCoD, he is up there for me now. Cookies is striking me as scummy, but as I have said before, there is just something about her posting style in these games that ALWAYS strikes me as scummy. I don't know what to do about that, because at this point I am not sure I can ignore that fact any longer.

There are also some people who have been more or less off my radar that I think we need to look more closely at. Idle is one, USCDiver is another. Idle is starting to remind me a lot of Gad in the Pirates game. He is just TOO townie. USC I don't have any kind of a read on at all, and that is unsetteling at this late date.

No vote yet, but that is where I am looking right now.

Queuing
08-13-2007, 12:18 PM
I don't mean it as cover for the apprentice. Hell the way the scum has been going I wouldn't be surprised if they already knew who the apprentice was. To be perfectly honest while I hope the apprentice has been doing an excellent job and knows who a lot of the scum are I am very hesitant to rely on them.

I think my plan takes some of the reliance off of the apprentice. As we know they aren't necessarily accurate anyway. I think my plan will provide a couple things; a clear snapshot of what everyone is thinking. I see no danger in attempting to force everyone to put their thoughts down. Even if the apprentice is eerily accurate and draws attention to scum big deal. We then take their list down one by one. If people do not put their thoughts down they better have a damn good reason. The only power roles left are the apprentice, the disciple and the monks (for the believers). Of these the disciple has already claimed, we know who 2 monks are, and their is much debate about the importance of the apprentice role anyway. At this point what do we have to lose?

I don't see much, but I see something to gain. Everyone's thoughts and everyone's votes. Assuming 5-6 scum to begin with we have 4-5 left out 16 players. Of those 16 zeriel, malacandra, pleonast, and hockeymonkey have claimed, leaving 12. So we probably have a 1 in 3 chance of getting scum just by dumb luck. I think knowing everyone's mind at this time, seeing what everyone thinks of each other, and then getting a consensus of sorts on the top 3 vote getters improves it to smart luck or something.

Vote getters now:

Idle Thoughts (1) – Pleonast
Mhaye ( 3) – zeriel, FCOD, queuing
DiggitCamara (1) – Idle Thoughts.


I see absolutely no reason why people can't come and lay down their thoughts today and a vote. Everyone should have suspicions. They have probably been laid out before. We don't need links right now, we just need thoughts.

Pleonast
08-13-2007, 12:23 PM
I fully support Queuing's proposal. Every Townie needs to put their suspects out there. We need something to go on when you're dead. And at the rate we're going, you'll be dead soon.

Of course, I've already outlined my suspicions.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-13-2007, 12:32 PM
As far as the recruit goes...I'm not it. I don't think there was one. I think they may have tried to recruit Fretful Porpentine, failed, and killed her the next night.

I hope they blew their recruitment in this fashion, and this proposed chain of events does seem sufficiently plausible to me, but I will not be putting all of my eggs in one basket.

Right now I'm on the fence between voting for Pygmy and MHaye. I will endeavor to do write-ups on both of them once I find the time.

Kyrie Eleison
08-13-2007, 12:37 PM
I'm still more suspicious of DiggitCamara than anyone else, but there don't seem to be many that agree with me, so I'm re-evaluating somewhat. By this I mean I'm not immediately voting, but am waiting a bit to see what develops this day before voting. It's not reassuring me that the chief reason I'm suspicious of Diggit also somewhat implicates Idle Thoughts, who is one of the few who have joined me in voting for Diggit. I don't know quite what to make of that yet. Nonetheless, were I to vote right now, it would be for Diggit.

I'm still on the Cape right now, but I'm following along. Thank you, unsecured wireless network.

USCDiver
08-13-2007, 01:08 PM
Vote getters now:

Idle Thoughts (1) – Pleonast
Mhaye ( 3) – zeriel, FCOD, queuing
DiggitCamara (1) – Idle Thoughts.


I see absolutely no reason why people can't come and lay down their thoughts today and a vote. Everyone should have suspicions. They have probably been laid out before. We don't need links right now, we just need thoughts.

Ok, I'll get the ball rolling. This game is still so huge and going so badly for the town, that it's getting a bit tedious anyway. It will shake things up a little bit to try something new.
Please also note that Pygmy Rugger should be added to your list, my vote is still on her.

My list of suspicions:
High Suspicion:
Pygmy Rugger
MHaye


Medium Suspicion:
DiggitCamara
Idle Thoughts
zuma
Kyrie Eleison
sachertorte

Low Suspicion:
USCDiver
Hockey Monkey
Zeriel
Malacandra
Queuing

No firm thoughts:
Everyone else

My vote still remains on Pygmy Rugger

MHaye
08-13-2007, 01:24 PM
As far as the recruit goes...I'm not it. I don't think there was one. I think they may have tried to recruit Fretful Porpentine, failed, and killed her the next night.I still doubt that the recruitment has been used, for the reasons I put forward Yesterday - namely that the chance of hitting a player that was either unconvertible in their own person or was being protected was too high.

There was one hypothesis that no-one advanced Yesterday, and it crossed my mind again when I read the death scene. That is, did the Priest use her "protect all" ability on Night 6? It would certainly explain why she was not self-protecting last Night.

That can be answered by the Disciple, but I'd really rather not know now. Keep the Cult guessing, please.

To the people intent on lynching me - how much of your suspicion is based on your dislike of my playstyle? I take a long time to think things through - I always have. Added to that is the (now thankfully finished) daytime commitment imposed on me and that led to my voting later than I preferred.

I've always voted someone who I thought might be scum (except Day 4, when I really had no idea except that Mad was not scum so don't vote for him). The trouble is that I have had no firm conviction so I agonise. I draft and redraft posts, looking at things from every angle. I must have restarted Yesterday's post five or six times. Additionally, I still have a very high threshold of proof - something I need to lower. I'm working on it.

As far as suspect lists go I need to order my thoughts on a few things before I can draft a reasonable one. So maybe tomorrow evening.

Queuing
08-13-2007, 01:42 PM
To the people intent on lynching me - how much of your suspicion is based on your dislike of my playstyle? I take a long time to think things through - I always have. Added to that is the (now thankfully finished) daytime commitment imposed on me and that led to my voting later than I preferred.

Thats all fine and dandy. Of course we want your best work. It would be swell if your best work happened with time to go rather then in the last minute (ok 12 hours) and with a vote that is essentially useless.

Honestly if it is taking you 4 days to write one post then you are thinking way to much, and hoping to use the exact excuse you just did IMO. This game is not that important or time consuming or complicated that it should take you 4days to come up with a safe vote.

Call it your playstyle if you will, I call it taking no risks and being of minimal help will trying to show you are of help.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-13-2007, 01:57 PM
Thats all fine and dandy. Of course we want your best work. It would be swell if your best work happened with time to go rather then in the last minute (ok 12 hours) and with a vote that is essentially useless.

Honestly if it is taking you 4 days to write one post then you are thinking way to much, and hoping to use the exact excuse you just did IMO. This game is not that important or time consuming or complicated that it should take you 4days to come up with a safe vote.

Call it your playstyle if you will, I call it taking no risks and being of minimal help will trying to show you are of help.++

--FCOD

Zeriel
08-13-2007, 01:58 PM
^^ ++

-z

USCDiver
08-13-2007, 02:02 PM
??

Queuing
08-13-2007, 02:18 PM
Umm, I am guessing that means FCOD and Zeriel are in agreement with my stance.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-13-2007, 02:39 PM
Sorry.

In many programming languages, the ++ operator means "Take this and add 1 to it".

So yeah, it means "Ditto".

--FCOD

MHaye
08-13-2007, 02:58 PM
Honestly if it is taking you 4 days to write one post then you are thinking way to much, and hoping to use the exact excuse you just did IMO. This game is not that important or time consuming or complicated that it should take you 4days to come up with a safe vote.When did I say it took me 4 days? Not once, that's when.

I said I drafted it several times. That doesn't imply that I started it with the Dawn. I had other things to worry about last week too, you know.

During Day 7 I updated the postlog analysis of the two players I have been keeping up, and did the latter half of another one I'd already started. I never did post that, (although I still have the draft saved so maybe I should). It was on FlyingCowOfDoom. My overall conclusion was that despite some misstatements he probably wasn't a Cultist.

That left me Thursday evening to address my suspicions, and they had to take into consideration Malacandras claim and whether I should vote him anyway (given that he'd been my Day 6 vote and all).

So after reassessing Malacandra, resolving a nitpicking exchange with DiggitCamara2 and stopping to watch Heroes part 4, it took be all evening and into the early hours of the morning to come to a vote.

In retrospect I shouldn't have voted as I did on the basis of a theory that sounded attractive at half past one in the morning. I definitely need to reassess that vote.

Blaster Master
08-13-2007, 04:33 PM
I have someone willing to step in and take Malacandra's spot. Because he has made a pro-town power role claim, I imagine there are few people who will object to a sub over a mod-kill. Hence, though I do not like the idea of subbing in at this late stage in the game, in light of the role-claim and balance, I will sub unless I receive an outcry of mod-kill requests in PMs.

Queuing
08-13-2007, 04:43 PM
Yes, we all have other things in our lives. Yes we all have jobs and we get busy sometimes. We all understand that.

However not any of what you posted explains, or even comes close to explaining really, why you always vote so late in the Day. You seemed to try to say that you agonize over it and have a high threshold of proof. Ok, I would buy that. If this wasn't our 49th real life day of game play. I would have expected you (and everyone) to understand that this game isn't about proof unless you are the oracle, this game is about interactions, feelings and people.

By now you should have realized this.
By now you should have stopped hoping/relying for proof.
By now you should have been seen how people are voting earlier and earlier in the Day.
By now you should have realized we do this to get people talking.

Yet you have done none of this. Yes you have posted posting histories. Very good of you. They have limited usefulness, and I was the person who first organized/suggested their use in M2. They don't suck, they aren't just gooblygook, but scum post them just as much as town do. They are an easy way to look like you are very helpful.

So look what we have here? Another way to look helpful without actually being helpful. Just like very late votes. Just like voting for a "safe" person. Particularly if you knew that person was not a cult.

And who would know that?

Blaster Master
08-13-2007, 04:56 PM
CatinaSuit will be taking the place of Malacandra.

The updated player list and an updated vote count will be posted later tonight, because I forgot to bring my spreadsheet to work today.

CatInASuit
08-13-2007, 05:27 PM
Hello all,

I will post what I have picked up from following the game shortly

Pleonast
08-13-2007, 05:52 PM
Welcome, CatinaSuit, to our very dysfunctional family. :)

Malacandra
08-13-2007, 05:53 PM
*hands over baton*

NAF1138
08-13-2007, 06:37 PM
Bye Mal, see you next time!

Howdy Catina!

Santo Rugger
08-13-2007, 06:50 PM
<snip>
I've always voted someone who I thought might be scum (except Day 4, when I really had no idea except that Mad was not scum so don't vote for him). <snip>

How did you know Mad wasn't scum?

NAF1138
08-13-2007, 07:57 PM
How did you know Mad wasn't scum?


Good point, how were you certain that Mad wasn't scum?

Queuing
08-13-2007, 09:36 PM
Hello all,

I will post what I have picked up from following the game shortly

We look forward to hearing from you.


Zuma I am also looking forward to hearing from you. Coming after me so hard right at the end of the Day, and now nothing?

MHaye
08-13-2007, 10:14 PM
How did you know Mad wasn't scum?Experience.

His behaviour on Day 4 was very similar to the way he acted in the Hispaniola game. At least twice, he did a sort of "fan dance" to try and draw reactions out from the scum. After he made his claim I put two and two together.

I said so in post 1933.

CatInASuit
08-13-2007, 10:18 PM
Ok, first up. Here is how I think the current town population stands

5 Cult : Prophet, 4 Cultists (inc. 1 Avatar)
3 Non-believers : Alchemist, 2 non-believer,
1 Special Role: Martyr
7 Town: Disciple, Apprentice, 2 Monks, 3 vanilla town

Current role claims:
Hockey Monkey: Alchemist
Zeriel: Monk
Pleonast: Martyr
Malacandra (aka me): Disciple

All numbers are approximate, only Blaster Master knows if they are accurate, but they seemed to me to fill the criteria for balancing the game out given the people who have been killed. You can work back to get what I think the intial starting point was.

No, I don't think there are two Alchemists in the town, I couldn't fit the extra one in and keep a balance between Cultist and Town.

Of course if there are less than 5 Cultists left, then I am not complaining.

Santo Rugger
08-13-2007, 10:58 PM
Experience.

His behaviour on Day 4 was very similar to the way he acted in the Hispaniola game. At least twice, he did a sort of "fan dance" to try and draw reactions out from the scum. After he made his claim I put two and two together.

I said so in post 1933.

In that post, quoted below, you say you're not sure what it means.

<snip>
On MadTheSwine, the way he's been playing in this game does somewhat resemble his play in the Pirates game. Specifically, he would do a "fan dance" - inviting the players to try guessing who he'd followed the previous night and what he saw, before suddenly revealing all.

This play feels like he's doing something similar, but (imo) doesn't really help me gauge whether he's a Cultist or not. To be honest, right now my gut says he's not (unless he's doing this just to get out of the game).<snip>

And, if at the time you said that, nobody except himself, Blam, and the scum knew his alignment. Even if he was doing his "fan dance", as you call it, there's no reason he couldn't do it as scum, drawing on your experience and using it against you. This is too big to ignore, and your explanation has not been satisfactory.

Vote MHaye.

CatInASuit
08-13-2007, 11:01 PM
Crazy Theory No.1

Having had to catch up on 50 pages of this game, only one thing really caught my eye.

In post #1785 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8791302&postcount=1785) , Zuma remarked on the following from Hal Briston's postings

1645: Now thinks Hockey Monkey is town.

If you check the post it goes as follows

Heee...it would seem I found cask of sacramental wine (or a bunch of beers at a Blue Claws game)...so, while posting while drunk is a bad idea, and Mafia posting while drunk is probably exponentially worse, I'll stumble across that bridge when I cross it:

I buy Hockey Monkey's denials. Without a large change of mob direction, she's as good as drowned, but I'm really thinking she'll come up clean.


To my eyes, this looks like Hal Briston dropping a breadcrumb that Hockey Monkey is a townie and believer, as all Cultists would turn up as non-believer.

However, a few posts later, Hockey Monkey claims to be the Alchemist.

This is a bit of a problem, because if Hockey Monkey is the Alchemist, then she would not turn up as believer. Of course, this leads to one question, why would a townie claim a non-town power role?

Any cultists could claim to be the Alchemist to try and buy a couple more days. The real Alchemist would not want to role claim, as they would then have a target to try and night block although the chances of success are actually pretty low at the moment.

A discussion on two Alchemists would mean that if the original one was killed, then the role-claim could still be argued to be true.

However, only one Cultist would come up town which would be the Prophet , so the only conclusion I can find is that Hockey Monkey is the Prophet

I think Hal Briston's post is the one which pointed him out as the Oracle and got him killed by the Cult and has been swept over afterwards by other Cultists.

So - when all is said and done

vote Hockey Monkey

CatInASuit
08-13-2007, 11:04 PM
*hands over baton*

*takes baton*

*dons ceremonial robe with bullseye on the back*

Santo Rugger
08-13-2007, 11:06 PM
<snip>
vote Hockey Monkey

I can totally get behind this, for the reasons I stated earlier.

Hockey Monkey
08-13-2007, 11:30 PM
I can totally get behind this, for the reasons I stated earlier.

Anyone who can totally get behind this would have to know that I am not the Prophet by either being the Prophet themselves or a Cultist. I am the Alchemist. My vote goes to Pygmy Rugger.

zuma
08-13-2007, 11:42 PM
Zuma I am also looking forward to hearing from you. Coming after me so hard right at the end of the Day, and now nothing?[/QUOTE]

Hi, Cupcakes.

I haven't even left work yet, give it a rest.

Queuing
08-13-2007, 11:46 PM
Crazy Theory No.1

Interesting. If this is true then the real alchemist is still out there. I suppose that person would know the Hockey Monkey was scum for sure. So that person would be attempting to block Hockey Monkey every night. Giving a 1/5 (at worst we all think) chance of actually blocking the scum.

So we have 1 night that is unaccounted for. This could be what happened, or the conversion was attempted, or there was no night kill or something else I am not thinking of at this moment.

Here is where I stand. I am not generally in favour in going after people who have role claimed. The role claim proclaims who they are. Once we get to end game what we want is claimed people. Then unverifiable claims get killed one by one hopefully resulting in a believer win.

I grant that the role of the prophet and the ability to convert changes this. So here is what I propose;

Hockey Monkey has volunteered to due the killing. What if we took her up on this offer? We get some sort of consensus vote. Or whomever is in the lead with say 16 hours to go. In all likelihood that person is going to down. So EVERYONE unvotes. I see NO REASON why anyone who was a BELIEVER would be unwilling to do this. Then Hockey Monkey places the death vote on whomever that leading person is.

This could maybe get rid of 2 scum at once. Or it could not, but eventually we will hit the avatar. Hitting that avatar with a highly suspect person who isn't even a believer who has a role that isn't that useful doesn't seem like a giant loss or risk.

What say you all? Of course I realize that this requires actual participation from everyone which has been a problem all game, but really it shouldn't be hard to come in and unvote at sometime on Thursday. That is all it requires.

One problem I just thought of; the person selected for death will most likely/probably/maybe vote for someone just to tie it up. If/when this happens I volunteer to cast the 2nd vote for that person.

ETA: Oh wow, some more participation from zuma, what an honour.

Queuing
08-13-2007, 11:47 PM
ETA actually means on preview in my world.

Queuing
08-13-2007, 11:53 PM
Zuma I am also looking forward to hearing from you. Coming after me so hard right at the end of the Day, and now nothing?

Hi, Cupcakes.

I haven't even left work yet, give it a rest.[/QUOTE]

So touchy!

Anyway I thought you had posted once since Dawn, however that was Zeriel (confirmed after I actually went back and checked). Sorry about that, I look forward to your accusations.

Santo Rugger
08-13-2007, 11:55 PM
Anyone who can totally get behind this would have to know that I am not the Prophet by either being the Prophet themselves or a Cultist. I am the Alchemist. My vote goes to Pygmy Rugger.

My reasons have to do with my theory of you being recruited. Notice I only quoted the vote in my reply, and none of the "crazy theory". I can get behind the vote. I never said anything about you being the Prophet as the "crazy theory" suggests, I've only talked about you being recruited.

I'm also confused how you say that I would "know you are not the Prophet", when the "crazy theory" that you think I said I could go along with specifically says you are the Prophet. It just doesn't make sense.

Hockey Monkey
08-13-2007, 11:55 PM
Hmmm, interesting proposal. I floated it with the intention in mind that I would take out the Avatar if the Apprentice found him/her. Do you think that if we were to settle on a scum that the scum would go along? I see no reason why a believer would not go along with it. I'm game.

Hockey Monkey
08-13-2007, 11:58 PM
My reasons have to do with my theory of you being recruited. Notice I only quoted the vote in my reply, and none of the "crazy theory". I can get behind the vote. I never said anything about you being the Prophet as the "crazy theory" suggests, I've only talked about you being recruited.

I'm also confused how you say that I would "know you are not the Prophet", when the "crazy theory" that you think I said I could go along with specifically says you are the Prophet. It just doesn't make sense.

I think you are a Cultist. Therefore, if you are, you would know I am not the Prophet. (Because you would know who it is....make more sense now?)

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 12:01 AM
I think you are a Cultist. Therefore, if you are, you would know I am not the Prophet. (Because you would know who it is....make more sense now?)

No, it doesn't. The reason you give for voting for me is because you said I agreed with the theory that says you are the Prophet. You supported it by saying that I know you're not the Prophet. I don't think you're the Prophet, I think you're the recruit. But I already explained all that Yesterday.

Hockey Monkey
08-14-2007, 12:10 AM
No, it doesn't. The reason you give for voting for me is because you said I agreed with the theory that says you are the Prophet. You supported it by saying that I know you're not the Prophet. I don't think you're the Prophet, I think you're the recruit. But I already explained all that Yesterday.

So you don't support CatinaSuit's crazy theory, but you think I was recruited. The same logic applies if you are scum. You can get behind the vote because you know that I was not recruited. My point was that someone who can totally get behind something would have information the rest of us don't.

Queuing
08-14-2007, 12:21 AM
Hmmm, interesting proposal. I floated it with the intention in mind that I would take out the Avatar if the Apprentice found him/her. Do you think that if we were to settle on a scum that the scum would go along? I see no reason why a believer would not go along with it. I'm game.

We have 16 people left I believe. If say 10 said that would be a good idea then I don't see how the scum couldn't go along with it. If they did just go along with it and not actually point out any holes just say "I don't like it. It could give the5 scum to much power in manipulating the vote" then I don't see it. Unless all 5 vote in a bloc. Even 4 people shouldn't necessarily be enough to swing the vote every Day. Just like now we would still have a voting pattern to look at. If we keep killing believers the people voting for said believer would quickly garner suspicion. So would people who never voted for believers. So yes they could go 3-2 switching it around every day but that to would leave a pattern. Patterns are how scum are caught. Of course I welcome any holes being pointed out in the theory.

Storyteller said one of the worse things we did in M2 was leash BM's killing role. Suggesting that any plan that took away any sort of randomness was a bad plan for the believers. However I don't think mine does that.

I would like the Day to go like this:

day 1: everyone comes out and says here are my suspicions
day 2: we wait for the stragglers so it really is as close as possible to everyone. Everyone votes for who they think is most likely scum, with reasons however weak given. This gives us hopefully a top 3 of vote getters. Since the chances are there are 5 scum left, 1 in 3 of us is scum so chances are one of the 3 is scum. I know that the 5 scum will not vote for each other (probably), but chances are they won't vote in a bloc either. I think at least.
day 3: By some more arguing and in depth looking at the top 3 people place their votes. Hopefully this will give us 16 votes spread out amongst 3 players. The time to role claim is now.
day 4: The top voter is going to die. Except for in role claims we haven't had great vote swings in this game. Everyone unvotes. 16 hours before the Day ends Hockey Monkey will hopefully be the only voter for the dead person. We wait and find out if we were right.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

The advantage to the believers is that we still get to discuss and argue and FOS and vote etc etc etc. The first 2 days will be the same as they are now. Sure I doubt that everyone will speak up but I damn well know some of us will. People who don't speak up in the first 2 days can just look at the top 3 vote getters, making their lives a little easier. The next bit of requirement is a vote. This should happen anyway sooner then it has been ( I am looking at you mhaye! ;) ). This will clearly show the top 3. Hell people can vote and unvote in the same damn post, we just need to know what they think. So even less work. Then you vote. If the person actually votes for someone else to create a tie I will come in and vote for them. The only person who would do this is a cultist, a death of a vanilla believer is not a big deal. However it won't be good enough. If other people join them they should die the next day.

So yeah, that is what I think. Less work for some, less risk for all in getting killed by the avatar. Except for Hockey Monkey, who seems to be the consensus pick for the target of recruitment, plus she has claime, has a pretty useless role, etc..

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 12:28 AM
So you don't support CatinaSuit's crazy theory, but you think I was recruited. The same logic applies if you are scum. You can get behind the vote because you know that I was not recruited. My point was that someone who can totally get behind something would have information the rest of us don't.

You're totally dating yourself. ;) I didn't mean totally, as in 100% confident. I mean, I could totally, like, vote for you, dude [/Surfer Accent].

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 12:36 AM
Mayor Queuing, do you really think everybody in town is going to actually follow this plan? On the surface, it looks great, but I can not realistically see everybody in the town following it. It basically requires everybody to be online on Thursday, and gives an out for people who end up not voting at all, because they didn't want to be the sole vote cast for the non consensus player at the end of the day. I think the only way this plan works is when the Apprentice outs the Avatar, as [/B]Hockey[B] originally intended.

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 12:48 AM
Not ETA: I don't mean that they wouldn't intend to follow it, but just that things will come up ("I need a sub!" for example) and it won't get the required participation. This will mean there will be less people active, which will, in effect, give the scum a bigger percentage of the voting block, if half the town goes along, and half doesn't.

CatInASuit
08-14-2007, 04:02 AM
Queuing, I disagree with your scheme to have just Hockey Monkey and possibly yourself be the only people to cast votes at the end of the day.

These are the number of votes each day required to dunk someone.

MadtheSwine apart it does not take that many.

Day 1: MtgMan 8 votes
Day 2: Kat 6 votes
Day 3: Scuba 6 votes
Day 4: MtS 16 votes
Day 5: Klutz 9 votes
Day 6: fluiddruid 7 votes
Day 7: amrussell 5 votes

If it is only going to take 5 or 6 votes to dunk someone, there is very likely to be a Cultist in the voters, even if the person being dunked is another Cultist, if only to try and gain townie points. Of course this runs the risk of them being struck down if the Cultists is the Avatar.

You are proposing swapping a possible town power role for the possiblity that we might take out the Avatar instead of the possiblity of a Cultist having to run the gauntlet.

No, I would suggest that with 12 hours to go, everybody swaps their vote to the highest bidder. Then if the Avatar is dunked, we get a 1 in 3 chance of taking out a Cultist at the same time.

The fact, that I think Hockey Monkey is the Prophet and I would love her to be the sole vote taking out the Avatar is besides the point.

CatInASuit
08-14-2007, 04:13 AM
Crazy Theory Number 2

Kat was a cultist and possible Avatar. The only people who would know that would be the other Cultists.

That early in the game, there would be no point in possibly being struck down as a voter against the Avatar, if you were a Cultist.

So only non-Cultists actually voted against Kat.

These were
DiggitCamara v.2
Idle Thoughts
Kyrie Eleison
Fretful Porcupine (Priest)
SnakesCatLady (believer)
Scuba (believer)

On Day 2, only having 6 votes to dunk is quite impressive, in a "that's really, really low" way. I would say that the three surviving people are going to town-aligned

I think that narrows the pool of Cultists a bit further. :)

USCDiver
08-14-2007, 05:21 AM
Crazy Theory Number 2

Kat was a cultist and possible Avatar. The only people who would know that would be the other Cultists.

I think you need to go back and read the roles a little more closely, Catina.

No one, even the Avatar himself, knows who the Avatar is. An Avatar killed during the day automatically kills a random person who voted for him, not a random Cultist.

Had Kat been the Avatar, one of the people who voted for her would have been killed by Sekham.

Now, I can buy that none of the other Cultists would have risked voting for her on the off chance she was the Avatar, but they wouldn't have known she was the Avatar.

CatInASuit
08-14-2007, 06:03 AM
I think you need to go back and read the roles a little more closely, Catina.

No one, even the Avatar himself, knows who the Avatar is. An Avatar killed during the day automatically kills a random person who voted for him, not a random Cultist.

Had Kat been the Avatar, one of the people who voted for her would have been killed by Sekham.

Now, I can buy that none of the other Cultists would have risked voting for her on the off chance she was the Avatar, but they wouldn't have known she was the Avatar.

Apologies if it was not clear. I know that if the Avatar is dunked someone who voted for them will also die regardless of affiliation.

However, the Avatar is also a Cultist. The other Cultists knew Kat was a Cultist and may or may not have been the Avatar.

You are right in that they would not have known for sure, so why take the chance that she is.

I think the Cult would have voted elsewhere on that day.

Zeriel
08-14-2007, 08:41 AM
Hrm, we have some very interesting theories coming up here now. Fresh blood makes me happy.

I'll be far more comfortable with Theory 1 if another Alchemist steps forward, but Theory 2 might well be promising.

Queuing
08-14-2007, 08:59 AM
Mayor Queuing, do you really think everybody in town is going to actually follow this plan? On the surface, it looks great, but I can not realistically see everybody in the town following it. It basically requires everybody to be online on Thursday, and gives an out for people who end up not voting at all, because they didn't want to be the sole vote cast for the non consensus player at the end of the day. I think the only way this plan works is when the Apprentice outs the Avatar, as [/B]Hockey[B] originally intended.

Peon Pygmy Rugger, well no, I even said that. I said we needed say 10 out of 16. Being online on thursday is not a big chore. Frankly people who are playing this game should be online everyday. Of course that has not happened (part of the reason why this game is broken IMO), and your point about it giving an out is just not true.

As I stated people could vote and unvote in the exact same post. In fact people should do that. All we need to know is where you want the your vote, not the actual vote. So it does not give an out as you say it does.

So that takes away that objection, unless you see another problem?

However it does intrigue me that you continue to attempt to get the apprentice to out themselves.

Catina Suit that is part of the problem. Right now we have a bunch of people just throwing out single votes. This makes it very easy for the scum to guide the lynch because of the small number of votes. My plan, a consensus top 3, would decrease the number of single votes and make it harder for the scum to actually guide the town.

I admit my plan requires actual game participation from everyone. Really this should not be to much to ask, but I know in this game it has been.

Zuma you STILL at work? Boy I wouldn't want your job.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-14-2007, 09:08 AM
Mayor Queuing, do you really think everybody in town is going to actually follow this plan? On the surface, it looks great, but I can not realistically see everybody in the town following it. It basically requires everybody to be online on Thursday, and gives an out for people who end up not voting at all, because they didn't want to be the sole vote cast for the non consensus player at the end of the day. I think the only way this plan works is when the Apprentice outs the Avatar, as [/B]Hockey[B] originally intended.I agree with this. I think Queuing's plan is a bad idea. It's too likely that people will not participate correctly, defeating the purpose. I think that we SHOULD be keeping an eye out for voting patterns like CatinaSuit suggests in her theory #2. That is, if we ever get to dunk another Cultists, maybe we should examine more closely the players that didn't vote for that dunking.

Right now, I am inclined to believe that Hockey Monkey is the Alchemist, as it would have made a lot more sense for the real Alchemist to come forward than to attempt to block the Cult every night. I'm also very happy with my vote on MHaye. His slip-up regarding MadTheSwine is too big to ignore.

Hockey Monkey
08-14-2007, 09:21 AM
Snipped

The fact, that I think Hockey Monkey is the Prophet and I would love her to be the sole vote taking out the Avatar is besides the point.

If I were the Prophet, me volunteering to take out the Avatar would make me the stupidest player in the history of the game. Take a step back and try to see that I am not the Prophet or a Cultist. I am just the Alchemist.

Queuing
08-14-2007, 09:22 AM
I agree with this. I think Queuing's plan is a bad idea. It's too likely that people will not participate correctly, defeating the purpose.

Well see I was hoping that it would encourage participation as in my mind it makes it easier for people to participate. However I am more then willing to concede that getting people to participate is unrealistic.

It seems we have a number of people who would rather post sarcasm then anything else.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-14-2007, 09:29 AM
I'm gonna get shit for this but I'm saying it anyway.

Assuming that he/she has any useful information, I think the Apprentice needs to come forward and tell us what he/she knows. If the Cult kills the Apprentice tonight, and the breadcrumbs are not obvious, we're fucked. If the Apprentice claims tonight, the Disciple can protect him/her, if we're lucky. The Cult has the upper hand in this game. I don't know how they're so good at picking out the power roles, but they are. If we lose all of the Apprentice's investigations, we might as well give up.

--FCOD

Hockey Monkey
08-14-2007, 09:37 AM
I'm gonna get shit for this but I'm saying it anyway.

Assuming that he/she has any useful information, I think the Apprentice needs to come forward and tell us what he/she knows. If the Cult kills the Apprentice tonight, and the breadcrumbs are not obvious, we're fucked. If the Apprentice claims tonight, the Disciple can protect him/her, if we're lucky. The Cult has the upper hand in this game. I don't know how they're so good at picking out the power roles, but they are. If we lose all of the Apprentice's investigations, we might as well give up.

--FCOD

Yes! This is what I've been trying to say.

Blaster Master
08-14-2007, 10:18 AM
Alive
2 USCDiver
3 Idle Thoughts
5 Hockey Monkey
7 NAF1138
8 sachertorte
10 CatinaSuit
12 Kyrie Eleison
14 Pleonast
17 Pygmy Rugger
19 FlyingCowOfDoom
21 Queuing
22 Zeriel
23 zuma [Ver. 2]
24 ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
25 DiggitCamara [Ver. 2]
27 MHaye

Dead
11 Mtgman - Non-Believer - Day One
4 zuma [Ver. 1] - Citizen - Night One
1 Kat - Cultist - Day Two
6 storyteller0910 - Monk - Night Two
15 DiggitCamara [Ver. 1] - Crusader - Night Two
20 Scuba_Ben - Citizen - Day Three
13 Hal Briston - Oracle - Night Three
29 MadTheSwine - Citizen - Day Four
9 SnakesCatLady - Citizen - Night Four
30 Captain Klutz - Non-Believer - Day Five
26 HazelNutCoffee - Citizen - Night Five
28 fluiddruid - Citizen - Day Six
18 amrussell - Psychopath - Day Seven
16 Fretful Porpentine - Priest - Night Seven

Substitutions
Kyrie Eleison (Repl. Clockwork Jackal )
Nava (Repl. Captain Carrot )
Kat (Repl. ArizonaTeach )
DiggitCamara [Ver. 2] (Repl. Autolycus )
Zuma [Ver. 2] (Repl. MonkeyMensch )
amrussell (Repl. Pasta )
Pygmy Rugger (Repl. Nava )
CatinaSuit (Repl. Malacandra )

Blaster Master
08-14-2007, 10:20 AM
There are 9 out of 16 votes cast. The Day will end in about 40 1/2 hours.

MHaye (4) - Zeriel, FlyingCowOfDoom, Queuing, Pygmy Rugger
Pygmy Rugger (2) - USCDiver, Hockey Monkey
DiggitCamara (1) - Idle Thoughts
Hockey Monkey (1) - CatinaSuit
Idle Thoughts (1) - Pleonast

Pleonast
08-14-2007, 10:28 AM
I'm gonna get shit for this but I'm saying it anyway.

Assuming that he/she has any useful information, I think the Apprentice needs to come forward and tell us what he/she knows. If the Cult kills the Apprentice tonight, and the breadcrumbs are not obvious, we're fucked. If the Apprentice claims tonight, the Disciple can protect him/her, if we're lucky. The Cult has the upper hand in this game. I don't know how they're so good at picking out the power roles, but they are. If we lose all of the Apprentice's investigations, we might as well give up.

--FCODAt this point in the game, I agree, the Apprentice needs to claim and give us whatever they have.

If the Apprentice has played perfectly, the Cult has about a 1 in 7 chance to hit the Apprentice in the remaining unclaimed pro-Town roles. But I think they can do better than that. The Cult has shown they have a good instinct for getting our power roles. I figure they have a 50-50 chance of hitting the Apprentice this Night or the next.

Crumbs can be misinterpreted, we need the actual calls and the Nights they were made (so we can judge their accuracy). The Disciple can protect.

We need you, Apprentice, you're our only hope!

Pleonast
08-14-2007, 10:34 AM
I'm going to guess that the Priest didn't use his one-time-only special power "Protect All Citizens". That means the Disciple can use it. If the Apprentice claims, he can use it to protect himself and the Apprentice. So we will get one more Night of investigation.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-14-2007, 10:35 AM
I'm going to guess that the Priest didn't use his one-time-only special power "Protect All Citizens". That means the Disciple can use it. If the Apprentice claims, he can use it to protect himself and the Apprentice. So we will get one more Night of investigation.That is an excellent point. I forgot about this ability. I believe this is our best shot.

--FCOD

Kyrie Eleison
08-14-2007, 11:01 AM
On Queuing's elector scheme: I'm a little leery of anything that would propose to draw the election of dunking candidates shorter than it already is. And I think that it does suffer from the participation problems others have pointed out. Also, importantly, it breaks down and becomes bad for town under some circumstances.

Rather than attempt to generalize why, as that would involve that icky math stuff that Queuing dislikes so, I'll just give a specific concrete example:

Suppose we reach this point: four town, two scum left. The avatar has yet to be killed. Let's call our scum X & Y. X is the current elector, and the four townies are unanimous that Y should be killed. Since X is the elector, he's obviously a suspicious person in his own right, and Y already has a majority for the dunk. Without the elector scheme, the worst case is that Y is the avatar, who kills a townie during the dunk. That leaves it 3 town, 1 scum going into the night, and most likely 2 town, 1 scum the next day.

With the elector scheme, though, everyone unvotes Y, and X votes for Y. One minute before the deadline, X unvotes Y and votes for some random townie, who is dunked before anyone can react. It's now 3 town to 2 scum, going into night. Unless town gets very lucky, scum kill a townie, and win that night.

I do not favor this scheme which by design invests likely scum with the power to direct the day kill.

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 11:04 AM
<snip>
However it does intrigue me that you continue to attempt to get the apprentice to out themselves.<snip>

It intrigues me that you don't want them to. I've explained it before, but I'll explain it again.

16 players. Disciple, 2-3 Monks, Apprentice. That's 4-5 unlynchables (from role claims). Add 1-2 confirmed townies (from investigations), that's 5-7 people that will not be lynched. Assuming the Disciple can protect all citizens tonight, that gives us enough nights to kill all the non believers and non confirmed townies, and still have a day left over.

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 11:06 AM
If I were the Prophet, me volunteering to take out the Avatar would make me the stupidest player in the history of the game. Take a step back and try to see that I am not the Prophet or a Cultist. I am just the Alchemist.

Unless you knew that the plan wouldn't work, heck, we can hardly get everybody to come in here and vote, much less unvote on a specific day. So, if you knew it wouldn't work, it'd be a great way to say, "Look, I'm so pro-town, I'm willing to sacrifice myself for the town!"

MHaye
08-14-2007, 11:08 AM
Assuming the Disciple can protect all citizens tonight, that gives us enough nights to kill all the non believers and non confirmed townies, and still have a day left over.The Disciple can't protect all players. The Priest could but she's dead.

If Fretful didn't use the power on Night 6, the Disciple can protect two players with certainty for one night, but then can't protect at all the next night.

CatInASuit
08-14-2007, 11:09 AM
Hrm, we have some very interesting theories coming up here now. Fresh blood makes me happy.

I'll be far more comfortable with Theory 1 if another Alchemist steps forward, but Theory 2 might well be promising.

Cultists, I can handle

Zombies, Just about.

If you are going to say there are vampires involved, I'm legging it. :D

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 11:12 AM
The Disciple can't protect all players. The Priest could but she's dead.

If Fretful didn't use the power on Night 6, the Disciple can protect two players with certainty for one night, but then can't protect at all the next night.

Fair enough. I don't think that destroys my plan, still gives it pretty good odds.

Queuing
08-14-2007, 11:19 AM
[QUOTE=Kyrie Eleison
Suppose we reach this point: four town, two scum left. The avatar has yet to be killed. Let's call our scum X & Y. X is the current elector, and the four townies are unanimous that Y should be killed. Since X is the elector, he's obviously a suspicious person in his own right, and Y already has a majority for the dunk. Without the elector scheme, the worst case is that Y is the avatar, who kills a townie during the dunk. That leaves it 3 town, 1 scum going into the night, and most likely 2 town, 1 scum the next day.

With the elector scheme, though, everyone unvotes Y, and X votes for Y. One minute before the deadline, X unvotes Y and votes for some random townie, who is dunked before anyone can react. It's now 3 town to 2 scum, going into night. Unless town gets very lucky, scum kill a townie, and win that night.

I do not favor this scheme which by design invests likely scum with the power to direct the day kill.[/QUOTE]

See no here is something I didn't think of.

Why does it intrigue you so Pygmy rugger?

The fact is we have no idea about who the apprentice is or what they know. We have no idea what they know. Only the apprentice does. For all we know the apprentice has investigated only 4 people in attempt to get more complete information. Or it could be someone who is on vacation and therefore won't read this chorus of calling for the apprentice to claim. Then when they don't it could look like they are not ignoring the town but rather just not here. This could further narrow down the choice for the town.

The apprentice sees everything that we do. The apprentice knows what they know. This is something only they know. Therefore they are acting with more information then we are. I trust the person with more information to know when to act. I see no benefit in our continued calling for the apprentice to claim. Let them decide when to do it. This calling for it can only help the scum, not the town. Unless you assume the apprentice is a moron who needs help. I for one am not making this assumption.

Lets look at who is calling for the apprentice to claim:

Hockey Monkey: a highly suspicious semi-pro town role claimer who is the number 1 suspect of the potential recruitment.

Pleonast: A claimed secret role who's alliance is unknown.

Pygmy Rugger: someone who has almost died the past 3 Days

FCOD: the least suspicious of all of you according to perceived (mine but I doubt many of you differ) believer feel.

Why would I not find it suspicious with this group?

Queuing
08-14-2007, 11:21 AM
Dammit I thought I hit preview not submit!

This line:

This could further narrow down the choice for the town

should read:

This could further narrow down the choice for the scum

Hockey Monkey
08-14-2007, 11:30 AM
Unless you knew that the plan wouldn't work, heck, we can hardly get everybody to come in here and vote, much less unvote on a specific day. So, if you knew it wouldn't work, it'd be a great way to say, "Look, I'm so pro-town, I'm willing to sacrifice myself for the town!"

I volunteered to take out the Avatar before Queuing's proposal. My original idea was that if the Apprentice has found the Avatar, I would be the sole voter so that no other Townie would get blowed up. How would that not work?

CatInASuit
08-14-2007, 11:30 AM
If I were the Prophet, me volunteering to take out the Avatar would make me the stupidest player in the history of the game. Take a step back and try to see that I am not the Prophet or a Cultist. I am just the Alchemist.

Hockey Monkey: I would normally agree with you, if it wasn't for the fact that it looks like Hal Briston breadcrumbed you as town leading to the contradiction in Theory #1.

BTW. Hockey Monkey can you tell me why you don't think that Hal's post was not a breadcrumb. You have argued loudly that you are the Alchemist, but not pointed out any flaws in Theory #1.

At this point in time, I will be honest and say I would take an Alchemist for Cultist swap, but that is up to the Alchemist, whoever they may be.

I think the Apprentice should only claim if he has a majority of either believer or non-believer on the remaining players. And only on tells from the Oracle's death onwards. I reckon the town is split 50/50 ish in terms of believers/non-believers, so claiming now, might not necessarily be the best option.

Yes, one of the Disciple's powers is to protect two people successfully for a night, with no power the next night if he can reclaim the necessary items.

I'm saying nothing.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-14-2007, 11:33 AM
For all we know, the Apprentice may be a moron. :D Just kidding. But, they may be an inexperienced player that may not realize the benefit to spilling the beans.

If the Apprentice is on vacation, we're fucked anyway. I'd like to assume he or she will read toDay's posts and act accordingly. I said before that the Apprentice should only claim if they have useful information (that is, Believer results). We don't have to worry about a false claim (unless the real Apprentice is on vacation), as the real Apprentice would be a fool not to counter-claim.

If the Apprentice claims, it should give us a damn good chance at hitting a Cultist toNight. There's also a damn good chance that the Apprentice will get protection. That gives us one more investigation and a great chance tomorrow Night to hit a Cultist. Trading the Apprentice for TWO Cultists is worth it, if you ask me.

--FCOD

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-14-2007, 11:38 AM
I volunteered to take out the Avatar before Queuing's proposal. My original idea was that if the Apprentice has found the Avatar, I would be the sole voter so that no other Townie would get blowed up. How would that not work?There would have to be another volunteer. I don't think the accused Avatar would refrain from voting.

--FCOD

Hockey Monkey
08-14-2007, 11:41 AM
Hockey Monkey: I would normally agree with you, if it wasn't for the fact that it looks like Hal Briston breadcrumbed you as town leading to the contradiction in Theory #1.

BTW. Hockey Monkey can you tell me why you don't think that Hal's post was not a breadcrumb. You have argued loudly that you are the Alchemist, but not pointed out any flaws in Theory #1.



I know Hal's post was not a breadcrumb, because if he investigated me, I would have come up as a non-believer. I know the flaw in your theory, because I know my role. Convincing you of that is another matter, because the only proof I can offer is my death, and the revelation that comes with it.

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 11:41 AM
I volunteered to take out the Avatar before Queuing's proposal. My original idea was that if the Apprentice has found the Avatar, I would be the sole voter so that no other Townie would get blowed up. How would that not work?

*shrugs* I've got nothin.

Hockey Monkey
08-14-2007, 11:42 AM
There would have to be another volunteer. I don't think the accused Avatar would refrain from voting.

--FCOD

:smack:

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-14-2007, 11:43 AM
:smack: :D

--FCOD

Pleonast
08-14-2007, 11:45 AM
The apprentice sees everything that we do. The apprentice knows what they know. This is something only they know. Therefore they are acting with more information then we are. I trust the person with more information to know when to act. I see no benefit in our continued calling for the apprentice to claim. Let them decide when to do it. This calling for it can only help the scum, not the town. Unless you assume the apprentice is a moron who needs help. I for one am not making this assumption.I'm not willing to chance it that a pro-Town power role is going to play it perfectly. The Disciple, for example, has been poorly played this game. If Mal really is the Disciple, he gave away too much information and he didn't vote. If he's not, then the real Disciple should have claimed by now.

Are you willing to gamble the results of the game on whether the Apprentice feels like risking another Night? I'm not.

The Disciple is still alive and can guarantee one Night's worth of protection. The Town needs the information, not bread crumbs.

Queuing
08-14-2007, 11:55 AM
Are you willing to gamble the results of the game on whether the Apprentice feels like risking another Night? I'm not.

I suppose the answer to this is yes. Really what I am prepared to gamble on is allowing the apprentice to do as they please without all this talk from suspicious people. As the apprentice has perfect information about what they know. You don't. I don't. Just because mal fucked up has no bearing on the apprentice situation.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-14-2007, 12:10 PM
I suppose the answer to this is yes. Really what I am prepared to gamble on is allowing the apprentice to do as they please without all this talk from suspicious people. As the apprentice has perfect information about what they know. You don't. I don't. Just because mal fucked up has no bearing on the apprentice situation.Wow, you have way too much faith in the ability of the Apprentice to leave breadcrumbs. I think we've found that breadcrumbs are not all that helpful. As far as I'm concerned, if the Apprentice dies without telling us his/her results, they might as well have never investigated anyone.

I don't see how you can oppose revealing the investigation results, unless you're worried about what they say...

--FCOD

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-14-2007, 12:16 PM
Alrighty then. Welcome to the game, CatinaSuit.

I'm also willing to consider CatinaSuit's second theory, moving Diggit2, Kyrie, and Idle lower on my suspicion list. I don't believe I've been looking in Kyrie or Diggit's directions much of late anyway, so that doesn't feel like much of a change. Giving Idle more slack is another matter...

I'm not sure that I'm willing to consider Queuing's proposal or some sort of consensus plea for the Apprentice to spill the beans as advocated by FCOD, Hockey, Pygmy & Pleonast.

But I'm getting a bit ahead of myself. I have homework to turn in first.

Open Item #1: A yet again closer look at those most vocal in their suspicion of those who vote for the role-claimed.

My research was far from exhaustive, but I did the best I could in the time I had. The first post that bubbled up was the bottom of Idle's 2187 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8815531&postcount=2187), and then again in (the now oft cited by me) 2301 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8820880&postcount=2301). (I guess I have been looking at him more recently, at least some of his behavior).

Zuma2 also voiced these views in 2351 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8824464&postcount=2351).

Then the three of us discuss the topic more in-depth between 2563 and 2570.

Pleonast later echoes these sentiments in 2707 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8861373&postcount=2707)

Open Item #2: Analysis regarding MHaye and Pygmy.

I'm afraid I've run out of time for this particular post (which I've been chipping away at for a couple of hours now), so I'll have to pick up on that later.

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 12:18 PM
I suppose the answer to this is yes. Really what I am prepared to gamble on is allowing the apprentice to do as they please without all this talk from suspicious people. As the apprentice has perfect information about what they know. You don't. I don't. Just because mal fucked up has no bearing on the apprentice situation.
Actually it does.

Thing is: the Disciple (welcome, CatinaSuit, by the by) has a 50% chance of blocking a Night Kill. So we can't actually guarantee the Disciple will survive the Night.

However, if the general protection wasn't used up by the Priest, the Disciple has now the chance to guarantee one more Night for him/herself and another player.

If my premises are right, we could have:

1. The Apprentice role claiming toDay. And spilling the beans about investigations
2. The Disciple protects him/herself AND the Apprentice du8ring toNight
3. The Apprentice tells us about his/her investigations
4. The Disciple or the Apprentice dies during the next Night
5. We lose either protection or investigation during that Night

Overall, it would help the Town for at least the next two Days. And face it, we need that help. So far we haven't really been on the mark...

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 12:19 PM
Now, the question I have is: did anyone spot Fretful as the Priest? I certainly didn't. The thing is, if the scum spotted her, they have an uncanny knack for guessing roles... or the special role isn't town-aligned. My guess is it would be an investigator for scum.

In that case, my theory would be:

1. The scum investigator had previously investigated Fretful and knew her role
2. Fretful protected all of us the Night before last and lost protection for herself for last Night
3. Since the scum hadn't targeted her and Mal revealed whom he had protected, they guessed her actions for the Night before last and knew she would be unprotected last Night...

And it would explain Pleonast's "delenda Malacandra" campaign...

vote Pleonast

MHaye
08-14-2007, 12:29 PM
Prepare for a long read. And algebra. Although I did try to keep that to a minimum.

Once again the town manages to put their noose around an innocent neck who has only one recourse to save themselves.

I've been contemplating the necessity of an eventual roleclaim for about he last three Days. So long as people talked about voting me but didn't (or did so in low numbers ) I was probably free from the prying eye of the Cult wondering if I was their quarry. So thanks folks for enabling me to stay hidden this long.

For those who want it spelled out, I am The Apprentice.

My investigations to date fall into two groups – those before the Oracle died, and those after.

BOD I was guaranteed to get an answer, but not certain that it would be right. The problem is that no-one can be sure of the investigation result without some outside evidence – either an Oracle investigation (and that is denied us) or the death of the subject. AOD I'm no longer guaranteed an answer, but have 100% confidence in any answer I receive being the one Hal would have gained.

I was never told that Hal investigated me, so all discussion of accuracy and confidence assumes that I had 50% accuracy BOD and 30% chance of misfire per investigation AOD.

Before revealing the investigations, please understand that if the subject is still alive, I will report only one of three results. The subject believes in Nairu,
the subject does not believe in Nairu,
or the subject is the Avatar of Sekham.I'll reveal the actual results of investigations of dead players.

I'm going to report AOD investigations first, because they require slitghtly less discussion. Night 4 was saw me investigate Pleonast. He believes in Nairu.
I read FlyingCowOfDoom in night 5, who believes in Nairu.
On Night 6 I investigated Malacandra (now replaced by CatinaSuit), who I learned believes in Nairu.
Night 7 saw me investigate Sachertorte, who also believes in Nairu.The names should be familiar, as that particular list has had a lot of discussion. On why that particular order, Pleonast was on two lists I wanted to look at (and was the only point of overlap), I looked at Mal in night 6 because I considered it likely that there would be a move to hang him, and Sachertorte was a result of crossed wires – I was planning on looking at him later, probably in night 8.

At this point I don't want to reveal exactly what results I got. It might be necessary in the hunt for the Prophet, so I'm looking for opinions on the issue. Should I state whether the players have power roles or not?

Yes I have been a bit lucky, as I'd have expected one foggy night in four with a 30% failure chance. It is possible to get four straight successes, but taken as a whole the chance is aroundabout ¼. Still, lets not look a gift horse in the mouth.

Interpreting the BOD investigations would be a lot harder, if more than one of them were alive. While the accuracy of these investigations was 50%, that doesn't mean I have a 50% chance of being wrong. The chance of my getting the same result as the Oracle goes up as the number of unknown players goes down and as the number of players with the same role goes up. So to estimate the confidence of the result, you have to estimate the number of players in each role.

Currently I think the game started with the sum total of players holding “non-believer” roles to be about 10 – the Alchemist, the Psychopath, some number of regular Cultists and the balance non-believers. The regular Cultists don't include either the Prophet or the Avatar. I estimated nine or ten “identifiable Power” roles – those who I would get the a role name. This consists of one each Oracle, Apprentice, Priest, Disciple, Crusader, and Avatar, plus 3-4 Monks. The balance (10-11) would read Believers.

It's easier to work out the chance I'd get a wrong result from an investigation, and then subtract that from 1 to get the chance I'd be right.

The investigations were :- Autolycus (aka DiggitCamara2), who appears not to believe in Nairu, on Night 1.
Fluiddruid, who appeared to be a Believer, in Night 2.
HazelNutCoffee, who appeared to be a Believer, in Night 3.The latter two were correct, as we learned when they died. DiggitCamara2 though, is still uncertain. My confidence on that investigation is about two in three, or if you want a range 60-70%.

There were then 29 players. Since I didn't get “Avatar” he was one of the 28 non-Avatar players.
There was a 50% chance that the investigation returned a random result.
If it did, the chance I would get a wrong reading was (Surviving non-Avatar players – survivng Non-Believers)/Surviving non-Avatar players.

I estimated that there were 9 surviving Non-Believers. Thus the chance I was wrong was 0.5 * 19/28 = 0.339 (to one decimal place) and thus the chance I was right was 1-0.339 = 0.661 or 66.1%. Thus I think there's approximately two chances in three that tis is right.

I still think the estimate of non-believers total is reasonable, although it may be one less, in which case my confidence drops to 64.2%.

Once you've had a chance to digest that I'm sure you have questions. I'll do my best to field them, although I must break for tea in the next couple of hours.

That's a load off my mind, actually. I've been a bit fearful of saying anything lest my words - and particularly my votes - be misinterpreted if I died before claiming.

On preview : Diggit, you do realise your last two posts are actually incompatible? If Fretful Porpentine used the reagenst to do her "protect all" ritual, the Disciple can't get hold of them to do the "protect 2" ritual.

Queuing
08-14-2007, 12:32 PM
Wow, you have way too much faith in the ability of the Apprentice to leave breadcrumbs. I think we've found that breadcrumbs are not all that helpful. As far as I'm concerned, if the Apprentice dies without telling us his/her results, they might as well have never investigated anyone.

I don't see how you can oppose revealing the investigation results, unless you're worried about what they say...

--FCOD

Where did I say I didn't want to hear the apprentice's results? I haven't. Nice try though.

What I have said, what I have always said, is IMO talking about power roles does absolutely nothing good. Asking them to claim does nothing good. They can claim, or not claim, it is up to them. Making demands of power roles is not at all useful.

Queuing
08-14-2007, 12:36 PM
Well alright then, done is done.

unvote mhaye

dunk diggit camara

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 12:41 PM
(snip)

On preview : Diggit, you do realise your last two posts are actually incompatible? If Fretful Porpentine used the reagenst to do her "protect all" ritual, the Disciple can't get hold of them to do the "protect 2" ritual.
You're absolutely right.

The thing is, Fretful's death has been bothering me. Actually the accuracy of the Cult has been bothering me for a while. And I have the feeling that Fretful (like most "Doctors") would have been self-protecting for a while, unless she had a possible target scoped out.

However, if she outguessed the Cult on one Night, wouldn't she self-protect on the following Night? I know I'm trying to guess her behavior, but her death simply makes no sense to me.

Would it be useful for our supposed Disciple to tell us if the multiple protect option still is available?

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-14-2007, 12:43 PM
Would it be useful for our supposed Disciple to tell us if the multiple protect option still is available?ABSOLUTELY NOT!!!!!!

--FCOD

Queuing
08-14-2007, 12:43 PM
Would it be useful for our supposed Disciple to tell us if the multiple protect option still is available?

Shockingly I am going to say no here. Let the disciple do as she pleases.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-14-2007, 12:54 PM
OK. Here's a list of the remaining players:

Sufficient information to trust (IMO):
Hockey Monkey - Alchemist
sachertorte - Believer, but possibly the Prophet
CatinaSuit - Disciple
Pleonast - Martyr
FlyingCowOfDoom - Believer, but possibly the Prophet
Zeriel - Monk
MHaye - Apprentice

Unknown:
USCDiver
Idle Thoughts
NAF1138
Kyrie Eleison
Pygmy Rugger
Queuing
zuma [Ver. 2]
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
DiggitCamara [Ver. 2]

Unvote MHaye. Vote DiggitCamara

--FCOD

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 12:55 PM
66% chance is better than anything we've had so far.

unvote MHaye

Vote DiggitCamara

Pleonast
08-14-2007, 01:05 PM
Fist, the Disciple should say nothing about his powers, past, present or future. Let the Cult guess.

Thank you, MHaye for the information. This will help the Town immensely.

Let's take a look at the remaining players,
USCDiver: unknown status
Idle Thoughts: unknown status
Hockey Monkey: claimed Alchemist
NAF1138: unknown status
sachertorte: confirmed Believer
CatinaSuit: claimed Disciple, confirmed Believer
Kyrie Eleison: unknown status
Pleonast: claimed Martyr, confirmed Believer
Pygmy Rugger: unknown status
FlyingCowOfDoom: confirmed Believer
Queuing: unknown status
Zeriel: claimed Monk
zuma [Ver. 2]: unknown status
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies: unknown status
DiggitCamara [Ver. 2]: possible Unbeliever
MHaye: claimed Apprentice

Accepting all current claims, we have 8 players with unknown status, plus Diggit, who appears to be an Unbeliever. That gives us about a 50-50 chance to dunk a Cultist. I'll leave my vote on Idle for the time being, while I think about the options.

Diggit, the Cult doesn't need an investigative role. The power roles tend to leave tell-tale signs and knowing who is Cult makes it that much easier to narrow it down.

On preview, I see FlyingCow has done a similar list. Anyway, here's mine.

Zeriel
08-14-2007, 01:06 PM
Sufficient information to trust (IMO):
Hockey Monkey - Alchemist
sachertorte - Believer, but possibly the Prophet
CatinaSuit - Disciple
Pleonast - Martyr
FlyingCowOfDoom - Believer, but possibly the Prophet
Zeriel - Monk
MHaye - Apprentice


Don't forget that Hockey, sach, Flying, MHayeand possibly Pleo are vulnerable to conversion, (IIRC info roles can be turned but monk/priest cannot)

Oh well, I was suspicious of Diggit anyway.

unvote MHaye.
vote DiggitCamara

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 01:10 PM
66% chance is better than anything we've had so far.

unvote MHaye

Vote DiggitCamara
Actually, I'd have far less confidence in the result. After all, MHaye says he investigated Pleonast, Malacandra, Fluiddruid and HazelNutCoffee. All probable Believers, though I have my doubts about Pleonast... all confirmed in his investigations.

In other words, we have nothing but "correct" results yet. Is that really likely?

I know his result on me is wrong.

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 01:14 PM
(snip)
Diggit, the Cult doesn't need an investigative role. The power roles tend to leave tell-tale signs and knowing who is Cult makes it that much easier to narrow it down.

(snip)


Nope. So far I'd have agreed with you. But the thing is, they hit Fretful on the Night where she wasn't self-protecting.

By the way: your "confirmed Believer" list is not only misleading but downright dangerous.



Prophet (Godfather) - Special cultist. He has the tie breaking vote among cultists. Once, while alive, he can spend one night converting a Non-Cultist but the Cult's sacrifice will be skipped that night. A Converted player appears to the Oracle/Apprentice as they did before conversion. Investigates as “Believer”.

(bolding mine)

Zeriel
08-14-2007, 01:24 PM
Actually, I'd have far less confidence in the result. After all, MHaye says he investigated Pleonast, Malacandra, Fluiddruid and HazelNutCoffee. All probable Believers, though I have my doubts about Pleonast... all confirmed in his investigations.

In other words, we have nothing but "correct" results yet. Is that really likely?

I know his result on me is wrong.

You're misunderstanding, apparently. IF MHaye is the Apprentice, then his math appears correct by the rules of the game as to the chances that you're a non-believer. Actually, it's something around actually 2/3-3/4 likely that any given read by the Apprentice will be correct, since a miss on the 50% reverts to "select a role at random from the remaining living", and NOT "give opposite result". Therefore, it's much more likely that he's gotten lucky and got correct results for his first three readings. I can do a simplified example if you don't follow this.

And his investigation lists are pretty similar to what I'd've done in his shoes--focusing on the quieter folks and the folks who are just nearly evading a dunking.

And please, we don't need any "But, but...I'm a vanilla townie, for serious." Gussy it all you like, but there's no disadvantage to claiming it so every scum will do so. So will every vanilla townie.

If the Apprentice is not MHaye, he'd damn well better claim.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-14-2007, 01:39 PM
I am......not the Apprentice. :D

So much for moving Diggit down on my suspects list. Vote Diggit.

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 01:40 PM
<snip>
By the way: your "confirmed Believer" list is not only misleading but downright dangerous. <snip>

No.

We go after those that came back non-believer. Then we go after those that have not been investigated. They claim if necessary. Counterclaims will result in a one to one trade. Finally, we go after those that came back believer to find the Prophet. Monks and other power roles will be spared during the day.

Pleonast
08-14-2007, 01:42 PM
Nope. So far I'd have agreed with you. But the thing is, they hit Fretful on the Night where she wasn't self-protecting.

By the way: your "confirmed Believer" list is not only misleading but downright dangerous.Prophet (Godfather) - Special cultist. He has the tie breaking vote among cultists. Once, while alive, he can spend one night converting a Non-Cultist but the Cult's sacrifice will be skipped that night. A Converted player appears to the Oracle/Apprentice as they did before conversion. Investigates as “Believer”.That's the reason I used the term "Believer" instead of "Town". Someone confirmed as a Believer is not necessarily on the Town's side.

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 01:43 PM
You're misunderstanding, apparently. IF MHaye is the Apprentice, then his math appears correct by the rules of the game as to the chances that you're a non-believer. Actually, it's something around actually 2/3-3/4 likely that any given read by the Apprentice will be correct, since a miss on the 50% reverts to "select a role at random from the remaining living", and NOT "give opposite result". Therefore, it's much more likely that he's gotten lucky and got correct results for his first three readings. I can do a simplified example if you don't follow this.

And his investigation lists are pretty similar to what I'd've done in his shoes--focusing on the quieter folks and the folks who are just nearly evading a dunking.

And please, we don't need any "But, but...I'm a vanilla townie, for serious." Gussy it all you like, but there's no disadvantage to claiming it so every scum will do so. So will every vanilla townie.

If the Apprentice is not MHaye, he'd damn well better claim.
I'm sorry if you don't like it, but:

1. I didn't cast doubt on MHaye's role. Nor am I casting doubt on his list. Like on any other power role claim, my stance has been to believe the claim as long as there is no counter claim (excepting Pleonast, toDay. Since he claims a "mystery role", he could well be telling a half truth)
2. What do you mean "it could well happen"? Like MHaye (and you) said, the chance of any one guess being right is 2/3 (approximately; I'm basing my calculation on your and MHaye's data). The chance of three guesses in a row being correct is 2/3 ^3, or approximately 30 percent
3. Why do you object to a role claim by someone who hasn't a power role? I know most dunkees haven't role claimed, and I didn't claim yesterday, but right now most power roles have been identified anyway

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 01:46 PM
<snip>
3. Why do you object to a role claim by someone who hasn't a power role? I know most dunkees haven't role claimed, and I didn't claim yesterday, but right now most power roles have been identified anyway

<snip>
And please, we don't need any "But, but...I'm a vanilla townie, for serious." Gussy it all you like, but there's no disadvantage to claiming it so every scum will do so. So will every vanilla townie.
<snip>

Bolding mine.

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 01:51 PM
No.

We go after those that came back non-believer. Then we go after those that have not been investigated. They claim if necessary. Counterclaims will result in a one to one trade. Finally, we go after those that came back believer to find the Prophet. Monks and other power roles will be spared during the day.
I was going to strenuously object... but you're actually right.

I'm the only "investigated Non-Believer", after all, so the town will only be losing me. I don't have a power role, therefore I'm "expendable". The added benefit is, of course, that I'm the only investigatee pre-Oracle-Death left over and all other investigations will have a greater accuracy.

Still: the investigation on me was wrong. :p

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 01:53 PM
Bolding mine.
...so? Claiming it doesn't help but it doesn't hurt either.

Not when you're guaranteed to be dunked, anyway.

Queuing
08-14-2007, 01:57 PM
So we did this last time so I thought I would ask:

Any desire to try to move the Day ending off of 3am EDT?

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-14-2007, 02:08 PM
So we did this last time so I thought I would ask:

Any desire to try to move the Day ending off of 3am EDT?Yeah I could get behind this.

--FCOD

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 02:16 PM
Yeah I could get behind this.

--FCOD
NO! ABSOLUTELY NO! I COULD BE SAVED IN THOSE LAST CRUCIAL SECONDS!

... Actually, if no one objects, I'd even move it to this afternoon. Unless anyone has the intention to make a pivotal post to indict anyone who has claimed, I'm off to the dunk.

By the way, since "the Martyr" has announced his role, wouldn't these next few Nights be excellent to test his veracity?

Hockey Monkey
08-14-2007, 02:22 PM
NO! ABSOLUTELY NO! I COULD BE SAVED IN THOSE LAST CRUCIAL SECONDS!

... Actually, if no one objects, I'd even move it to this afternoon. Unless anyone has the intention to make a pivotal post to indict anyone who has claimed, I'm off to the dunk.

By the way, since "the Martyr" has announced his role, wouldn't these next few Nights be excellent to test his veracity?

First thoughts on reading this:

1. A call to a fellow scum to counter-claim someone to save him.

2. A message to fellow scum to take out Pleonast.

Unvote Pygmy Rugger
Vote DiggitCamaraV2

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-14-2007, 02:24 PM
I think a 12-hour countdown starts after 9 votes. Let's try not to have the Day end in the middle of the night. Perhaps we could wait until this evening to cast the ninth vote, causing the Day to end tomorrow morning?

--FCOD

Queuing
08-14-2007, 02:30 PM
In that case we may find this helpful (assuming I have it accurate), used form BM's lats vote count.


DiggitCamara (7) - Idle Thoughts, Queuing, FCOD, Pygmy Rugger, zeriel, Cookies, Hockey Monkey
Pygmy Rugger (1) - USCDiver,
Hockey Monkey (1) - CatinaSuit
Idle Thoughts (1) - Pleonast
Pleonast (1) - Diggit Camara

CatInASuit
08-14-2007, 02:31 PM
Oh my, I leave for a couple of hours or so and the town goes off like a rocket.

to DiggitCamara ******RASPBERRY******

As I said previously, I am saying absolutely nothing about my current protective skills

Looking at the current lists and using Crazy Theory #2

Role Claimed

CatinaSuit Disciple
Pleonast Martyr
MHaye Apprentice
Zeriel Monk

My #1 suspect
Hockey Monkey Alchemist

Theory #2 townies
Idle Thoughts
Kyrie Eleison
DiggitCamara [Ver. 2] (although he looks like he is an unbeliever, despite denials)

Believers (possibly including the Prophet)
sachertorte
FlyingCowOfDoom

Unknowns
USCDiver
NAF1138
Pygmy Rugger
Queuing
zuma [Ver. 2]
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

Diggit Camara, MHaye's Math does hold out although I make it 70/30 you are a non-believer.

However, to everyone voting Diggit Camara - this looks like a big bandwagon based on some possibilities. Much as I enjoy maths, I would not totally rely on it to convict Diggit Can we find anything in his posts that would hint at him being scum relating to the known roles as shown by MHaye. Please don't end the day early, there is still a lot of discussion to go and some people have not logged in for this day yet.

I'm going to do a little more reading on previous posts. But I think we will have as much luck looking at the unknowns and trying to hit one of them as Cultists as going after Diggit Camara.

If Hockey Monkey is the Alchemist, I reckon we might have 4? Cultists of 6 townies in the Unknown list, because the odds on me getting all the Cultists in the Unknowns are really, really low.

I wonder who else is going to role-claim tonight??

GAME ON!! :cool:

Pleonast
08-14-2007, 02:32 PM
I think a 12-hour countdown starts after 9 votes. Let's try not to have the Day end in the middle of the night. Perhaps we could wait until this evening to cast the ninth vote, causing the Day to end tomorrow morning?Being on the West Coast, I can put in the ninth vote tonight easily enough. 9 or 10pm my time would mean a noonish dunk Eastern Time. If there's eight votes by then, I'll put in the ninth.

Unvote Idle Thoughts
I'm still highly suspicious of him, but Diggit seems to be flopping like a caught fish, so consider my vote switched.

Queuing
08-14-2007, 02:36 PM
However, to everyone voting Diggit Camara - this looks like a big bandwagon based on some possibilities. Much as I enjoy maths, I would not totally rely on it to convict Diggit Can we find anything in his posts that would hint at him being scum relating to the known roles as shown by MHaye. Please don't end the day early, there is still a lot of discussion to go and some people have not logged in for this day yet.

meh, possibilities based on what the apprentice says are possibilities I am more then willing to follow. That said I don't care if we end it early or not, I just want the end to fall on a more convenient time of day. We can end tomorrow night and have it end Thursday mid-morning.

If I had my dithers I would like the Day to end 3pm EDT as opposed to 3am. I figure that gives the pacific people enough time to look at in the morning while at the same time ending at a good time for most of the Easterners. Of course you overseas people are screwed but this is a NA board.

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 02:46 PM
(snip)

Diggit Camara, MHaye's Math does hold out although I make it 70/30 you are a non-believer.

(snip)


Let's exemplify.

A single coin toss has a 50/50 chance of landing on heads.

However, the chance of having three heads in a row is:

1/2 ^3 = .125 (12.5 percent)

In our case, we have an overbalanced coin, with 2/3 chances of coming up heads (or a "correct" diagnosis)

2/3^3=0.296296 (29.62 percent)

In other words, the chance of getting the "correct" diagnosis three times in a row is roughly 30 percent. 2 times right, one time wrong is not an unexpected result for the three first Nights.

That said, I do agree that for everyone who's not me the best course of action is to lynch me, since I'm the only one who came up "non-Believer".

And would like to say, again, that toNight would be a good time to put our "Martyr"'s role claim to the test.

Queuing
08-14-2007, 02:53 PM
And would like to say, again, that toNight would be a good time to put our "Martyr"'s role claim to the test.

I would like to hear how you would like for him to do this, because did you see this:

I'm going to report AOD investigations first, because they require slitghtly less discussion.

* Night 4 was saw me investigate Pleonast. He believes in Nairu.

Pleonast
08-14-2007, 02:54 PM
And would like to say, again, that toNight would be a good time to put our "Martyr"'s role claim to the test.Hey, I've been waiting around for you Cultists each Night, but you've stood me up every time. You know where I live, don't be so shy. Unless you're still smitten with the Apprentice...

((If Diggit is going to send bald-faced messages to his Cultist buddies, I'm going to have some fun mocking them. :p))

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 02:58 PM
I would like to hear how you would like for him to do this, because did you see this:

Of course, Pleonast may be scum aligned, and show up to the Oracle as a believer. We don't know the extent of his role, and probably won't until his death/the end of the game.

Queuing
08-14-2007, 03:02 PM
Of course, Pleonast may be scum aligned, and show up to the Oracle as a believer. We don't know the extent of his role, and probably won't until his death/the end of the game.

True, good point. This is one problem with the role, we have no idea what the alignment of the role is. That is one reason I doubt Pleonast will live to see the end of the game. We will have to kill him one Day most likely.