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DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 02:04 PM
I would like to hear how you would like for him to do this, because did you see this:
Well, seems simple to me:

1. If Pleonast is the martyr, his greatest value would lie in sacrificing his life (to save someone else?)
2. Right now, the Apprentice seems to be the most valuable Power role available. Every Night he survives could yield additional information

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 02:10 PM
Well, seems simple to me:

1. If Pleonast is the martyr, his greatest value would lie in sacrificing his life (to save someone else?)
2. Right now, the Apprentice seems to be the most valuable Power role available. Every Night he survives could yield additional information

So that gives Tonight with the Preist (if available), tomorrow (or until MHaye is targeted, and Pleo dies instead) with Pleonast, and the next day 50/50 with the Priest. That gives us 2.5 more investigations, IF PLEONAST IS TELLING THE TRUTH.

CatInASuit
08-14-2007, 02:12 PM
Let's exemplify.

A single coin toss has a 50/50 chance of landing on heads.

However, the chance of having three heads in a row is:

1/2 ^3 = .125 (12.5 percent)

In our case, we have an overbalanced coin, with 2/3 chances of coming up heads (or a "correct" diagnosis)

2/3^3=0.296296 (29.62 percent)

In other words, the chance of getting the "correct" diagnosis three times in a row is roughly 30 percent. 2 times right, one time wrong is not an unexpected result for the three first Nights.

That said, I do agree that for everyone who's not me the best course of action is to lynch me, since I'm the only one who came up "non-Believer".

And would like to say, again, that toNight would be a good time to put our "Martyr"'s role claim to the test.

There is, of course, the possiblity that he got one of them wrong. In fact the chances are that one of them is wrong.

However, that does not mean that he got your reading wrong. It is just as likely that he misread one of the other candidates.

So showing how accurate or not MHaye was on each night.

DiggitCamara: non-believer 70/30
FluidDruid: believer 80/20
HazelNutCoffee: believer 78/22

In other words, the most likely option is, regardless of his accuracy, is that you are what he says you are.

Remember, every time you come to toss a coin, the chance is always 50/50.

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 02:15 PM
So that gives Tonight with the Preist (if available), tomorrow (or until MHaye is targeted, and Pleo dies instead) with Pleonast, and the next day 50/50 with the Priest. That gives us 2.5 more investigations, IF PLEONAST IS TELLING THE TRUTH.
... and if not, he dies. It's a win-win situation.

Any other deal (if, for instance, the scum don't target him or try to recruit the Apprentice, or others) would give us even more investigations.

By the way, the Disciple definitely should protect MHaye (unless his claim is proven wrong, somehow), and at the same time the Martyr should "protect" him... That way, even one of their abilities fails (the Apprentice has a 50% chance, right?), somehow, the other's ability should kick in.

USCDiver
08-14-2007, 02:17 PM
I'm going to go ahead and switch my vote now to bring us up to 8, but I'm still highly suspicious of Pygmy Rugger and she gets my vote first thing Tomorrow.
unvote Pygmy Rugger
vote DiggitCamara

Unofficial Vote count:

DiggitCamara (8) - Idle Thoughts, Queuing, FlyingCowOfDoom, Pygmy Rugger, Zeriel, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, HockeyMonkey, USCDiver
Hockey Monkey (1) - CatinaSuit
Pleonast - DiggitCamara

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-14-2007, 02:19 PM
I'm going to go ahead and switch my vote now to bring us up to 8, but I'm still highly suspicious of Pygmy Rugger and she gets my vote first thing Tomorrow.FYI: Pygmy Rugger = male.

--FCOD

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 02:20 PM
... and if not, he dies. It's a win-win situation.

Any other deal (if, for instance, the scum don't target him or try to recruit the Apprentice, or others) would give us even more investigations.

By the way, the Disciple definitely should protect MHaye (unless his claim is proven wrong, somehow), and at the same time the Martyr should "protect" him... That way, even one of their abilities fails (the Apprentice has a 50% chance, right?), somehow, the other's ability should kick in.

It's not that simple. If he's lying, we lose a couple nights with the Apprentice that could be very valuable in the end game. IMO, we need one more confirmed believer to clinch a win.

I like my version of using the Priest Tonight, and the Maryter tomorrow. At least that way we'll have one more night of investigations if Pleo is lying.

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 02:22 PM
There is, of course, the possiblity that he got one of them wrong. In fact the chances are that one of them is wrong.

However, that does not mean that he got your reading wrong. It is just as likely that he misread one of the other candidates.

So showing how accurate or not MHaye was on each night.

DiggitCamara: non-believer 70/30
FluidDruid: believer 80/20
HazelNutCoffee: believer 78/22

In other words, the most likely option is, regardless of his accuracy, is that you are what he says you are.

Remember, every time you come to toss a coin, the chance is always 50/50.
Ummm... FluidDruid and HazelNut both died and are now confirmed in the roles of MHaye's investigation (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8873416&postcount=2863)

So: we already have two confirmed "hits".

And of course the chance on each individual investigation is 2/3. However, I repeat: the chance of all 3 of them coming out "right" is just about 30%.

(By the way 70/30? What do you mean by that?)

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 02:25 PM
It's not that simple. If he's lying, we lose a couple nights with the Apprentice that could be very valuable in the end game. IMO, we need one more confirmed believer to clinch a win.

I like my version of using the Priest Tonight, and the Maryter tomorrow. At least that way we'll have one more night of investigations if Pleo is lying.
Two points:

1. The Priest just died. We're left with the Disciple
2. My plan isn't different from yours. I'm just working with the non-dead Disciple, whose protection, sadly enough is only 50%

And remember, this game is far from over. The investigations don't have a 100% credibility, since they're made by the Apprentice, not the Oracle.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-14-2007, 02:30 PM
And remember, this game is far from over. The investigations don't have a 100% credibility, since they're made by the Apprentice, not the Oracle.Only your investigation is not 100% credible. After the Oracle died, the Apprentice's investigations became 100% accurate.

--FCOD

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 02:32 PM
Two points:

1. The Priest just died. We're left with the Disciple
2. My plan isn't different from yours. I'm just working with the non-dead Disciple, whose protection, sadly enough is only 50%

And remember, this game is far from over. The investigations don't have a 100% credibility, since they're made by the Apprentice, not the Oracle.

I guess I'm too excited to post my complete thoughts?

The Disciple has one night of 100% guarantee, if the Priest hasn't used his powers. That's what I meant. Next night, Martyr. Next night, Disciple at 50%. Ergo, 2.5 more investigations.

The investigations do have 100% credibility, minus the 3 made before the Oracle died, and minus the Prophet. But once all the non believers are gone, we attack those that came up believer that don't have power roles. The game's not over, but I can't think of any reason we wouldn't do it this way. Can you?

CatInASuit
08-14-2007, 02:36 PM
So: we already have two confirmed "hits".

And of course the chance on each individual investigation is 2/3. However, I repeat: the chance of all 3 of them coming out "right" is just about 30%.

(By the way 70/30? What do you mean by that?)

I think you missed the point.

An example. He accurately calls you and HazelNutCoffee. He gets FluidDruid wrong. In that case, there was a 60% chance, he would get a reading of believer for FluidDruid .

70/30 means that regardless of whether he is accurate or not, 70% of the time, he will detect you as a non believer.

Hockey Monkey
08-14-2007, 02:43 PM
I'm prepared to get struck down for saying this...but....

If the remaining Monks come forward and get verified, then that will narrow our pool sufficiently enough that I think that the town could win.

Hockey Monkey
08-14-2007, 02:44 PM
Plus Mhaye wouldn't waste in investigation on them.

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 02:47 PM
Plus Mhaye wouldn't waste in investigation on them.

That's what I've been trying to say.

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 02:47 PM
I guess I'm too excited to post my complete thoughts?

The Disciple has one night of 100% guarantee, if the Priest hasn't used his powers. That's what I meant. Next night, Martyr. Next night, Disciple at 50%. Ergo, 2.5 more investigations.

The investigations do have 100% credibility, minus the 3 made before the Oracle died, and minus the Prophet. But once all the non believers are gone, we attack those that came up believer that don't have power roles. The game's not over, but I can't think of any reason we wouldn't do it this way. Can you?
Well, actually I would think that regardless of anything else, the "Martyr" should focus his "Powers" on protecting the Apprentice, since that's our most valuable resource. But other than that, I'd have to agree with you.

Now, I'm kind of obsessed on the outcome of Day 2's voting, since it was the only time where we know a Cultist was at risk.


Kat (repl. ArizonaTeach) (6) - Fretful Porpentine, Autolycus, SnakesCatLady, Kyrie Eleison, Scuba_Ben, Idle Thoughts
Malacandra (5) - Pleonast, fluiddruid, sachertorte, Hal Briston, Kat

We know now that Fretful Porpentine, SnakesCatLady, Scuba_Ben (townies) voted for Kat (Cultist)

... Do we really believe no Cultist tried to save her by voting against Malacandra(now CatinaSuit/Disciple)?

Idle Thoughts saved Malacandra by switching his vote at the last minute. That might have stopped Cultists from jumping on Malacandra's bandwagon. Kat is a confirmed cultist, but she was voting to save her own neck.

Both Pleonast and sachertorte appear on Malacandra's side of the equation... I grow more and more convinced he's the Prophet. And I don't think he's used his recruitment option yet.

Hockey Monkey
08-14-2007, 03:17 PM
That's what I've been trying to say.

I'm sorry, I must have missed where you're plan included verifying the Monks. Could you point it out to me?

Queuing
08-14-2007, 03:23 PM
I guess I'm too excited to post my complete thoughts?

The Disciple has one night of 100% guarantee, if the Priest hasn't used his powers. That's what I meant. Next night, Martyr. Next night, Disciple at 50%. Ergo, 2.5 more investigations.

The investigations do have 100% credibility, minus the 3 made before the Oracle died, and minus the Prophet. But once all the non believers are gone, we attack those that came up believer that don't have power roles. The game's not over, but I can't think of any reason we wouldn't do it this way. Can you?

Well that is a best case scenario. The scum could very easily just target pleonast tonight, taking out the martyr and the disciple may have used the one time power. This would leave the disciple without protection abilities the next night and then the apprentice dies.

Of course who knows what the disciple and secret role (did Pleonast ever confirm the actual name of his secret role? I don't recall, all I recall is that link that someone, I think sachertorte, posted) will actually do. I have faith that we won't as they will not tell us.

As to thinking we have it in the bag, or at least are very close I remind you that we (well the town you were scum) thought the same thing in M2 after Pimaspinner (now hockey monkey) claimed and gave us loads of information. Of course different game so that doesn't necessarily mean anything.

As to the idea of the monks claiming, guess what I am going to say? Allow them to do as they wish. I don't see a need for it right now. All it would seem to do is give more confirmed targets for the scum, who are probably going to start taking out our power roles (hockey monkey/Zeriel). However if it is just zeriel and one other then yes they should come out, but so long as there are 2 hidden and in danger from the believers then they should remain hidden. Soon, if not now, claimed people will be of great danger to the cult as they won't be able to remain hidden amongst the unclaimed. I realize of course that some of the claimed could still be proven false, but the likelihood of that is not high for anyone but Pleonast and Mhaye (it being not a full Day since his claim).

MHaye
08-14-2007, 03:36 PM
Let's try this again.

I won't be posting a vote for Diggit right now, because that will trigger a 12-hour countdown, and I'm not too keen on having the Dusk at 9:30am. I'm sure the rest of you don't like it either.

I've recognised everything that Diggit has been saying about the likelihood of there being at least one wrong result in my first three investigations. It was one of the reasons for my caution earlier. I didn't want to mislead people into thinking I was more certain than I was.

Now we know the results of the other two BOD investigations were right though, they say nothing about the accuracy or otherwise of the investigation of Diggit.

A related point : the chance of a no-result investigation is 30%. That means that the chance of 5 consecutive successful investigations is 7^5/10^5 = 0.168. Does that mean the chance my next investigation gets a result is 17%?

No; the chance is 70%.

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 03:51 PM
I'm sorry, I must have missed where you're plan included verifying the Monks. Could you point it out to me?

I guess I didn't say it explicitly, but here are the relevant quotes:

<snip>
16 players. Disciple, 2-3 Monks, Apprentice. That's 4-5 unlynchables (from role claims). Add 1-2 confirmed townies (from investigations), that's 5-7 people that will not be lynched. <snip>

<snip>

We go after those that came back non-believer. Then we go after those that have not been investigated. They claim if necessary. Counterclaims will result in a one to one trade. Finally, we go after those that came back believer to find the Prophet. Monks and other power roles will be spared during the day.

How else will we know who the Monks are without killing them if they don't tell us, ya know? :)

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-14-2007, 03:57 PM
Like others have already suggested: Since we're likely to get at least one more investigation, I wonder if it would be helpful for the Monks to all come forward. It would narrow the pool of potential investigation targets. Does it really make it easier for the Cultists? I don't think killing a Monk would help them much more than killing a Vanilla Believer...

--FCOD

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 03:58 PM
Like others have already suggested: Since we're likely to get at least one more investigation, I wonder if it would be helpful for the Monks to all come forward. It would narrow the pool of potential investigation targets. Does it really make it easier for the Cultists? I don't think killing a Monk would help them much more than killing a Vanilla Believer...

--FCOD

Well, it would, because the town won't lynch a monk. But if, by "vanilla believer", you meant "unknown at this point", I'd say yes, it's a coin toss.

Hockey Monkey
08-14-2007, 03:59 PM
I see your point now, but I am advocating that they come forward before they get strapped to the dunk chair. I'm not sure if this is what you meant. That way we can concentrate on the smaller pool of potential cultists. Plus if they come forward today, Mhaye will know not to investigate them tonight, thereby narrowing our pool further. Sure it increases the number of potential victims tonight by the Cultists, but you know what...they are going to kill one of us anyway!

Santo Rugger
08-14-2007, 04:04 PM
I see your point now, but I am advocating that they come forward before they get strapped to the dunk chair. I'm not sure if this is what you meant. That way we can concentrate on the smaller pool of potential cultists. Plus if they come forward today, Mhaye will know not to investigate them tonight, thereby narrowing our pool further. Sure it increases the number of potential victims tonight by the Cultists, but you know what...they are going to kill one of us anyway!

I totally agree. ;)

Kyrie Eleison
08-14-2007, 04:06 PM
Oh sure, for the first time in three days I say I'm not going to vote for Diggit because I'm not getting any agreement from anyone else, and rather will wait for a bit and see what develops, and I come home from the beach to find that this is what develops? Now I can't vote for Diggit without setting off the timer. You all suck! :p

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 04:29 PM
(snip)
A related point : the chance of a no-result investigation is 30%. That means that the chance of 5 consecutive successful investigations is 7^5/10^5 = 0.168. Does that mean the chance my next investigation gets a result is 17%?

No; the chance is 70%.
Yes. I know the individual chance for an individual investigation remains the same, regardless of the outcome of other individual investigations.

Nonetheless, like you said, there's an overall chance of 5 consecutive successful investigations of 17% (just about). The universe of your possible investigations is far too small to actually make this number significant at all, which is why I have (repeatedly) said that it is far more than normal for you all to vote against me.

Still: I know I'm a Believer. And that means that your first investigation went wrong.

Which is, when we look at your first three investigations, the likelier result (over long periods).

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 04:36 PM
Well that is a best case scenario. The scum could very easily just target pleonast tonight, taking out the martyr and the disciple may have used the one time power. This would leave the disciple without protection abilities the next night and then the apprentice dies.

(snip)


And that would harm us how?

If Pleonast is "the Martyr", his activation could actually be benefited by being targeted toNight. It could be "when the Martyr gets killed at Night, one of his killers (selected randomly) gets killed as well", couldn't it?

And even if it isn't, it buys the Apprentice one more Night. And during that Night, a new investigation. Anyhow, the Disciple could vary her Defense, as well, choosing to do a 50% defense on the first Night (since the Martyr could and should be aiding her efforts).

The beauty is, of course, that by now the Cultists can't really afford to let the Apprentice live too many Nights...

Idle Thoughts
08-14-2007, 05:24 PM
Back!

Time to catch up.

Majorly, majorly catch up.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-14-2007, 05:49 PM
Well, it would, because the town won't lynch a monk. But if, by "vanilla believer", you meant "unknown at this point", I'd say yes, it's a coin toss.I think a Monk would let us know before getting dunked...

--FCOD

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 06:11 PM
I think a Monk would let us know before getting dunked...

--FCOD
Yeah, and I doubt Zeriel would keep out of the discussion.

The advantage would lie in maximizing the Apprentice's investigations.

Idle Thoughts
08-14-2007, 06:12 PM
Idle Thoughts is the scum hiding in the open. Mostly helpful, but plays selfishly at critical moments.

Selfishly? Need I remind you that I helped dunk scum before and was even a deciding factor vote then? I had my vote on Mal and switched it to Kat based on her inconsistency and what I saw as slip ups. And whaddya know? Paydirt.

Now I see the rest of your post here and I see you're thinking that what it is is that Mal was the Prophet that I was "protecting"?

Wild paranoia is right. But it's amusing if nothing else.


Lets go over the possibilities and attribute it to your logic in voting for me as it seems (because I, frankly, don't know of any other reason it could be), shall we? Kat = known scum now.

1. Me = town, Mal = town....in which case, you're wrong about me.
2. Me = town, Mal = cult....in which case, you're wrong about me (although will probably still think I'm cult if he just happens to really BE the prophet).
3. Me = cult, Mal = town....in which case, I would KNOW he was town and Kat was cult, wouldn't I? Why would I unvote him when it was all of him being dunked then? Surely it wouldn't matter? And I know you'll probably say "but then again, you could also be voting for fellow scum to look really good, especially since you cast the deciding vote", but the thing is, I didn't do that. Will you or anyone else believe me? Probably not. But in any case, time will tell.
4. Me = cult, Mal = cult....in which case, why would it matter who I voted for? Either way, I'd know a cultist was going down. You seem to think that if it's this one that Mal is the prophet. Well, fine, I'll help you tooth and nail the next Day if you and I both survive the Night (and this Day too) to go after him (who is now CS it appears, welcome to you. Sorry the welcome includes a "I'll be majorily suspicious of you" with it, but that's what people face when they sub it. : p) S/he's as high on my suspicion list as the only other person is (Diggit).

And I see now you've unvoted me. Oh well. I'm still going to post this so you may read it.


ABSOLUTELY NOT!!!!!!

--FCOD

And he wonders why I'm still voting for him. :smack:


Of course, Pleonast may be scum aligned, and show up to the Oracle as a believer. We don't know the extent of his role, and probably won't until his death/the end of the game.

Also, doesn't the recruit read as believer, even if converted? I'm not saying Night Seven was a convert or not but if it was, there might be another out there who will have the power of investigating as believer behind them.

NAF1138
08-14-2007, 06:30 PM
Hi, so...sorry I haven't been able to post or really read the game yet today. I will continue to not sub out as I really do think things are looking up work load wise. I am just sorry for my lack of participation the last couple of Days.

So I have only skimmed what has happened in the last 24 hours, but it seems that MHaye has claimed apprentice, and Diggit is going to dunk. Anyone want to recap why Diggit will dunk for me, I seem to have missed that. I PROMISE I will find a way to post more and place a vote before the Day ends tomorrow evening. But this is the last time I can post today.

Again, my apologies.

zuma
08-14-2007, 06:31 PM
vote: Diggit

Regarding Queuing, I choose not to make the same mistakes I did in M2. There are bigger fish to fry. If nothing else I'll keep an eye on him.

CatInASuit
08-14-2007, 06:41 PM
Hi, so...sorry I haven't been able to post or really read the game yet today. I will continue to not sub out as I really do think things are looking up work load wise. I am just sorry for my lack of participation the last couple of Days.

So I have only skimmed what has happened in the last 24 hours, but it seems that MHaye has claimed apprentice, and Diggit is going to dunk. Anyone want to recap why Diggit will dunk for me, I seem to have missed that. I PROMISE I will find a way to post more and place a vote before the Day ends tomorrow evening. But this is the last time I can post today.

Again, my apologies.


Diggit is being dunked because MHaye has noted he is a non-believer and we haven't a better option for dunking people atm.

DiggitCamara
08-14-2007, 06:42 PM
Hi, so...sorry I haven't been able to post or really read the game yet today. I will continue to not sub out as I really do think things are looking up work load wise. I am just sorry for my lack of participation the last couple of Days.

So I have only skimmed what has happened in the last 24 hours, but it seems that MHaye has claimed apprentice, and Diggit is going to dunk. Anyone want to recap why Diggit will dunk for me, I seem to have missed that. I PROMISE I will find a way to post more and place a vote before the Day ends tomorrow evening. But this is the last time I can post today.

Again, my apologies.
Simple: the Apprentice says I'm a Non-Believer; all the rest of his reads are of Believers.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-14-2007, 06:54 PM
vote: Diggit

Regarding Queuing, I choose not to make the same mistakes I did in M2. There are bigger fish to fry. If nothing else I'll keep an eye on him.

Isn't that the 9th vote?

zuma
08-14-2007, 07:03 PM
Is it? Sorry...

unvote: Diggit

USCDiver
08-14-2007, 07:05 PM
Isn't that the 9th vote?

By my count it is... we should have a 12 hour countdown now...

USCDiver
08-14-2007, 07:07 PM
Nevermind

Queuing
08-14-2007, 08:28 PM
And that would harm us how?

If Pleonast is "the Martyr", his activation could actually be benefited by being targeted toNight. It could be "when the Martyr gets killed at Night, one of his killers (selected randomly) gets killed as well", couldn't it?

And even if it isn't, it buys the Apprentice one more Night. And during that Night, a new investigation. Anyhow, the Disciple could vary her Defense, as well, choosing to do a 50% defense on the first Night (since the Martyr could and should be aiding her efforts).

The beauty is, of course, that by now the Cultists can't really afford to let the Apprentice live too many Nights...

Yes it could be. I was going on what the role description that was posted earlier suggested which was that the martyr basically protects someone one night and if that person is killed they take the hit for them. It said nothing about what would happen if the martyr themselves was night killed so I assumed nothing would happen, they would just die. Pure speculation of course that will not be answered until the game is over.

Hockey Monkey
08-14-2007, 08:37 PM
Is it time to start the countdown?

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-14-2007, 08:42 PM
Is it time to start the countdown?Works for me.

--FCOD

Queuing
08-14-2007, 08:51 PM
Is it time to start the countdown?

Do we know for sure if everyone (but sachertorte) has come in and seen the claim? We need to make sure we are acting on the best information available and ensure everyone has had a chance to counterclaim.

CatInASuit
08-15-2007, 03:18 AM
Oh look - the boards back.

Current situation

Role Claimed
CatinaSuit Disciple
Pleonast Martyr
MHaye Apprentice
Zeriel Monk
Hockey Monkey Alchemist

Believers (possibly including the Prophet)
sachertorte
FlyingCowOfDoom

Unknowns
USCDiver
NAF1138
Pygmy Rugger
Queuing
zuma [Ver. 2]
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
Idle Thoughts
Kyrie Eleison

#1 town suspect
DiggitCamara [Ver. 2] (although he looks like he is an unbeliever, despite denials)

I reckon that we are still missing a Monk and the Prophet. Anyone like to claim :p

Other than sachertorte, I think everyone has posted.

Hockey Monkey. As no-one else has claimed Alchemist by now I guess the role claim is safe, if someone was going to out you, they should have done it yesterday

unvote Hockey Monkey

Finally, if DiggitCamara is a Cultist, there is a chance he could be the Avatar.
I would rather not see any pro town power voting for him, but everyone else should. That way if he is, we have a chance of taking another Cultist out at the same time.

MHaye
08-15-2007, 06:24 AM
Well, the board outage severely queered the plan to shunt the time of Nightfall to one more favourable to North American residents. A late evening (for Americans) Nightfall might still work (and frankly would work better for me).

Someone voting now (nearing 12:30pm BST) would shift the Nightfall to about 7:30pm EDT. Of course most of you are either asleep or munching breakfast.

One thing, oh Sharp Dressed Cat.Finally, if DiggitCamara is a Cultist, there is a chance he could be the Avatar.I'd know if DiggitCamara2 was the Avatar. It's the only Cultist role that shows up as Cultist.

I couldn't get it wrong BOD - I couldn't get any other reading if I investigated the Avatar, or a reading of Avatar if I investigated anyone else.

CatInASuit
08-15-2007, 06:56 AM
One thing, oh Sharp Dressed Cat.I'd know if DiggitCamara2 was the Avatar. It's the only Cultist role that shows up as Cultist.

I couldn't get it wrong BOD - I couldn't get any other reading if I investigated the Avatar, or a reading of Avatar if I investigated anyone else.

:smack: :smack: :smack:

Ok, next time I have 5 mins before a meeting, the board has reappeared, and I haven't had a coffee.

.

.

.

I will until after the coffee before I post.

:smack: :smack: :smack:

MHaye: You are quite right indeed, anyone can vote for DiggitCamara2 without being struck down.

Queuing
08-15-2007, 08:19 AM
Well we could start the countdown now, which would put it at like 9:30pm EDT, 6:30pm Pacific I have no idea for anything else :)

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-15-2007, 08:43 AM
Somebody vote! I have to go to bed at 10:30pm ET and I don't wanna miss the Dusk!

Actually, it probably doesn't matter. BM takes like 10 hours to write the post anyway. :p :D

--FCOD

CatInASuit
08-15-2007, 08:47 AM
Somebody vote! I have to go to bed at 10:30pm ET and I don't wanna miss the Dusk!

Actually, it probably doesn't matter. BM takes like 10 hours to write the post anyway. :p :D

--FCOD


10:30pm - Some of us are going to have to wait until 2am

Maybe we should ask Blaster Master when he is allowed to use the PC and arrange to vote 12 hours before then.

Oh well - countdown away - unless someone comes forward with some really good info.

vote DiggitCamara

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-15-2007, 08:52 AM
Maybe we should ask Blaster Master when he is allowed to use the PC and arrange to vote 12 hours before then.LOL! Wow, you really have been following along, haven't you.

Here's hoping BM's fiancee lets him out of his cage tonight! :D

--FCOD

CatInASuit
08-15-2007, 09:03 AM
LOL! Wow, you really have been following along, haven't you.

Here's hoping BM's fiancee lets him out of his cage tonight! :D

--FCOD

Actually I only signed up to follow along the Mafia games and post on them. I have been lurking for a lot, lot longer. ;)

58 posts on Mafia V only - oh dear, oh dear.

Pleonast
08-15-2007, 09:03 AM
I think the Cult must control the board. Better late than never, so
Vote DiggitCamara

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-15-2007, 09:33 AM
So, Monks....any of you feel like coming forward to help MHaye with his investigation tonight?

--FCOD

Zeriel
08-15-2007, 01:38 PM
I'll pass on that, thanks.

Matter of fact, I'm unhappy enough with the idea to allow it to affect my thoughts on voting Tomorrow.

Zeriel
08-15-2007, 01:40 PM
LOL! Wow, you really have been following along, haven't you.

Here's hoping BM's fiancee lets him out of his cage tonight! :D

--FCOD
I really want to make fun of BM for this, but I shouldn't. But it's so tempting.

Pleonast
08-15-2007, 01:43 PM
Now that we're back online, any final thoughts from anyone before Dusk?

I'd still like to see some more thoughts of likely suspects from everyone who hasn't commented much lately. While a simple list of suspicion would be adequate, just putting out things that've bothered you would be nice. Give us something to think about after you're dead.

About the Monks revealing themselves--it seems a little early still. Although, given the large number of confirmed power roles out in the open, I would guess the Cult has a long queue of kills to make. Monks would be farther down the list

DiggitCamara
08-15-2007, 01:49 PM
So, Monks....any of you feel like coming forward to help MHaye with his investigation tonight?

--FCOD
Well, it seems like the accepted list of known townfolk looks like this:

Hockey Monkey Alchemist
sachertorte Believer
Malacandra Disciple
Pleonast Believer
FlyingCowOfDoom Believer
Zeriel Monk
MHaye Apprentice


Since there are 16 players left, with one or two deaths between now and toMorrow's Dawn, this list of players will have something close to a majority to choose whom to dunk. Maybe the Monks should out themselves tomorrow, to make this majority more substantial.

Caveats:

1. They need a lot of help to keep the Apprentice alive, to keep the list at this size
2. The town will have to sharpen up their Cult-detection-skills... they are sorely lacking thus far
3. I still believe one of the "Believers" is the Prophet. I still believe he should be taken out as soon as possible, to forestall Recruitment

Anyhow, I know that after profusely apologizing and deep lamentations over their roles in my lynching, most surviving players will proceed to forget my participation in the game and ignore my posts (including this one). Still, I wanted to leave a parting thought.

NAF1138
08-15-2007, 01:49 PM
So, Monks....any of you feel like coming forward to help MHaye with his investigation tonight?

--FCOD

Finally. I want to emphatically state that I think this is a BAD idea. This is only good if MHaye really is the apprentice, and frankly I am not yet sold. I can think of some reasons why the real apprentice may not want to counterclaim yet. (see Mad's play in the Pirates game for a devistating example).

Are we really in such bad shape that we are going to blindly accept MHaye's claim?
I mean there are people still doubting HM's claim, but we are going to just believe MHaye?

If Diggit is some flavor of non believer I say we can feel safer about the claim, but until we know what happens, do we really want to place a target on all of our power roles backs?

NAF1138
08-15-2007, 01:50 PM
oh and Dunk Diggit. Because it is the only way we have of doing anything like testing out MHaye's claim.

Blaster Master
08-15-2007, 01:57 PM
LOL! Wow, you really have been following along, haven't you.

Here's hoping BM's fiancee lets him out of his cage tonight! :D

--FCOD

BM's fianceť only has say on the weekends, though tonight is generally bad because it's a raid night, our server is offline, so I'll try to end the day as close to 10PM EDT as I can.

DiggitCamara
08-15-2007, 01:58 PM
oh and Dunk Diggit. Because it is the only way we have of doing anything like testing out MHaye's claim.
Actually, that's wrong.

I argued (and know) that the result he got from investigating me was wrong, but it happened before Hal was killed. And since his investigation was on Night 1, the Apprentice's investigation powers were at its lowest.

You could see a test of his powers if, for instance, sachertorte or FlyingCowofDoom were dunked/NightKilled, since their investigations came back after Hal was killed.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-15-2007, 02:01 PM
WTF is wrong with you people??

If MHaye is lying, the real Apprentice is a damn fool. The investigations are invaluable at this point in the game. We need them to win. We cannot take a chance that the Apprentice will be killed tonight before divulging everything.

Monks, you're making the wrong choice. We need to narrow the pool of unknowns as much as possible to find Cultists. We've got one, maybe two more nights of investigations. We've got 9 unknowns, including Diggit. He's dead, so that brings us to 8. If we cut that down to 6, the chances are excellent that the Apprentice will find a Non-Believer tonight. It makes no difference to the Cult if the Monks are out in the open toDay or not.

Please, think about it.

--FCOD

Hockey Monkey
08-15-2007, 02:27 PM
WTF is wrong with you people??

If MHaye is lying, the real Apprentice is a damn fool. The investigations are invaluable at this point in the game. We need them to win. We cannot take a chance that the Apprentice will be killed tonight before divulging everything.

Monks, you're making the wrong choice. We need to narrow the pool of unknowns as much as possible to find Cultists. We've got one, maybe two more nights of investigations. We've got 9 unknowns, including Diggit. He's dead, so that brings us to 8. If we cut that down to 6, the chances are excellent that the Apprentice will find a Non-Believer tonight. It makes no difference to the Cult if the Monks are out in the open toDay or not.

Please, think about it.

--FCOD

Agreed. And don't forget that I have a power too. If the pool of unknowns is mostly Cult, then I'll have a better chance of stopping a night kill. THINK people! THINK!

Zeriel
08-15-2007, 02:32 PM
I have thought about it. My decision stands to not reveal my fellow monks, although they can certainly do so themselves if they so choose.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-15-2007, 02:32 PM
Agreed. And don't forget that I have a power too. If the pool of unknowns is mostly Cult, then I'll have a better chance of stopping a night kill. THINK people! THINK!An excellent point. I'd also love to know what a good reason for the Apprentice to not counter-claim is. I sure can't think of one.

--FCOD

Zeriel
08-15-2007, 02:33 PM
Yeesh, you people. Just consider that some of the power roles have information you don't have, and that we might have damn good reasons for doing what we do.

MHaye
08-15-2007, 02:45 PM
On the subject of Monks claiming or not, what I think is irrelevant. I've always thought that power roles should play as they see fit. I'm not against players making suggestions to power roles. It might suggest ideas or lines of thought that hadn't occurred to the player. I tend to ignore those that come without reasons though.

One of the aspects of my role that I've been struggling with is that even now I no longer have a chance of getting the wrong result, I cannot definitively identify Cultists. What I can do though is reduce the pool of players in which the surviving Cult may swim.

My ability actually divides the players roles into three groups :- Nonbelievers, Believers and Identifiable Power. Regular Cultists are found within the first group, the Avatar in the third, while the Prophet lies in the second.

Thus I could break down the investigation results (at least the ones AOD) into Believers and Power. The advantage would be to reduce the number of players in which the Prophet can hide. The disadvantage would be the risk that the information thus revealed would benefit the Cult enough that they could break the Towns back before the Town could isolate the Prophet. I'm particularly concerned that revealing any hidden Monks would enable the Cult to use their recruitment without fear of failure. (I still don't think it likely that Night 6 was a recruitment attempt). If I do decide to publish it will be before Nightfall.

DiggitCamara2, I'm not going to forget your posts. I'll republish the full list of them Tomorrow (assuming I survive Tonight) so they can be reevaluated in the light of your true alignment.

I think the sheer size of my main breadcrumbs was one of the reasons I didn't get spotted by the Cult in time, so it seems appropriate after all.

My remaining uncertainty won't stop me finally voting DiggitCamara2 though.

Idle Thoughts
08-15-2007, 02:47 PM
Oh look - the boards back.

Current situation

Role Claimed
CatinaSuit Disciple
Pleonast Martyr
MHaye Apprentice
Zeriel Monk
Hockey Monkey Alchemist

Believers (possibly including the Prophet)
sachertorte
FlyingCowOfDoom

Unknowns
USCDiver
NAF1138
Pygmy Rugger
Queuing
zuma [Ver. 2]
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
Idle Thoughts
Kyrie Eleison

#1 town suspect
DiggitCamara [Ver. 2] (although he looks like he is an unbeliever, despite denials)

I reckon that we are still missing a Monk and the Prophet. Anyone like to claim :p

Other than sachertorte, I think everyone has posted.

Hockey Monkey. As no-one else has claimed Alchemist by now I guess the role claim is safe, if someone was going to out you, they should have done it yesterday

unvote Hockey Monkey

Finally, if DiggitCamara is a Cultist, there is a chance he could be the Avatar.
I would rather not see any pro town power voting for him, but everyone else should. That way if he is, we have a chance of taking another Cultist out at the same time.


I don't like this. Or rather, I don't like setting things in stone so much. Maybe it has to do with being more overly paranoid or maybe it's just because I always like to keep in mind every possible option but you seem to be saying here you think either sach or FCoD is a believer or the prophet.

But what of a possible recruit? If Mhaye is to believed then FCoD wouldn't have had a chance yet, but the Night before last COULD have been a recruit try. So if Sach was the one, then he'd read believer if the Prophet or a recruit.

Same with Hockey who I'm getting suspicious of a little again. I do believe, by now, she's the Alchemist. I do not know what to think, however, of her alignment anymore. YMMV.

All I'm saying is, I think it's dangerous to put things in stone with that nokill out there. Maybe it was and maybe it wasn't a recruit yet...but it obviously wasn't the Psychopath being activated...so it was either recruit (which failed or was successful) or failed attempt at killing.

DiggitCamara
08-15-2007, 03:00 PM
(snip)

All I'm saying is, I think it's dangerous to put things in stone with that nokill out there. Maybe it was and maybe it wasn't a recruit yet...but it obviously wasn't the Psychopath being activated...so it was either recruit (which failed or was successful) or failed attempt at killing.

Like I said before, it seems to me that Fretful Porpentine used her "general protection" ability on the Night before last. Then, seeing an opening, the Cultist killed Fretful Porpentine.

The question that lingers in my mind is how they had spotted Fretful Porpentine in the first place.

USCDiver
08-15-2007, 03:06 PM
For your information

Unofficial Vote count:

DiggitCamara (12) - Idle Thoughts, Queuing, FlyingCowOfDoom, Pygmy Rugger, Zeriel, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, HockeyMonkey, USCDiver, CatinaSuit, Pleonast, NAF1138, MHaye
Pleonast(1) - DiggitCamara

Yet to vote: sachertorte, zuma, Kyrie Eleison

Queuing
08-15-2007, 03:38 PM
Like I said before, it seems to me that Fretful Porpentine used her "general protection" ability on the Night before last. Then, seeing an opening, the Cultist killed Fretful Porpentine.

The question that lingers in my mind is how they had spotted Fretful Porpentine in the first place.

Why would Fretful have done such a thing? I would love to see your reasons for believing this.

How do we know they spotted fretful? I know the scum have been very accurate in their night killings so far, but it could have just been luck you know.

DiggitCamara
08-15-2007, 04:43 PM
Why would Fretful have done such a thing? I would love to see your reasons for believing this.

How do we know they spotted fretful? I know the scum have been very accurate in their night killings so far, but it could have just been luck you know.
Why? Who knows. I'll be sure to ask her, though, as soon as I've been dunked :D

Well, my reasons to believe they spotted her hinge on a complicated sequence of events:

1. In Most (if not all) of the games I've been in the Doctors protect themselves unless they see someone else who is extremely likely to be protected
2. In this game, several revelations might have prompted a change of behavior. Not during this Night, though (the person who outed himself could self-protect)
3. If I'm right and Fretful Porpentine self-protected, the Night no-one died someone else was targeted. Who? Who cares?
4. When they learned of Mal's status (and, incidentally, his protection list, and, incidentally, who the psychopath was), the Cultist knew the target they had chosen (and on whom the hit had failed) must have received protection by the Priest
5. Their target was not likely a candidate for protection on that Night. Or else, since there were many targets, the Cultist gambled that the Priest couldn't self-protect during that Night, and struck

DiggitCamara
08-15-2007, 04:44 PM
Why would Fretful have done such a thing? I would love to see your reasons for believing this.

How do we know they spotted fretful? I know the scum have been very accurate in their night killings so far, but it could have just been luck you know.
Forgot to underline one point:

It's one thing to believe in luck. But don't you think it's a huge coincidence they hit her on the Night she didn't self-protect?

DiggitCamara
08-15-2007, 04:49 PM
By the way, there has been some doubt as to MHaye's status. There are, however, at least two persons who could tell us if he's right:

1. FretfulPorpentine
2. sachertorte

Of course, if a "real" Apprentice hasn't rebuked MHaye's claim by now, (s)he obviously hasn't realized that, by outing MHaye (s)he would actually have caught 3 Cultists at once. Without a single investigation.

NAF1138
08-15-2007, 05:39 PM
By the way, there has been some doubt as to MHaye's status. There are, however, at least two persons who could tell us if he's right:

1. FretfulPorpentine
2. sachertorte

Of course, if a "real" Apprentice hasn't rebuked MHaye's claim by now, (s)he obviously hasn't realized that, by outing MHaye (s)he would actually have caught 3 Cultists at once. Without a single investigation.


How?

DiggitCamara
08-15-2007, 06:20 PM
How?
Well, if you want to impersonate the Apprentice, if you say two people (other than Cultists) are Believers, you risk choosing some Non-Believer, and blowing yourself out of the water. That could be circumvented by telling the rest of the world all about the pre-Oracle investigations and saying that afterwards you had investigated players that have already died by now, etc. etc.

By mentioning several people in his post-Oracle-Death investigations and calling them all Believers, the risk an impostor took was bigger, since any one of them could have outed him. However, most of those names were people who had already role-claimed, which, again, would have simply confirmed what we already think we know.

MHaye threw Flying Cow of Doom and sachertorte into the mix. If he was an impostor and he threw two random players into his "investigations" he would have risked being called on it, by any of the two. This hasn't happened. So he probably does know their exact alignment. Which means, if he's an impostor, that he knows they won't call him out because of their false status or that he isn't an impostor and truly investigated them.

DiggitCamara
08-15-2007, 06:58 PM
By the way, there has been some doubt as to MHaye's status. There are, however, at least two persons who could tell us if he's right:

1. FretfulPorpentine
2. sachertorte

Of course, if a "real" Apprentice hasn't rebuked MHaye's claim by now, (s)he obviously hasn't realized that, by outing MHaye (s)he would actually have caught 3 Cultists at once. Without a single investigation.
Aggh! I just noticed: I didn't mean Fretful Porpentine.

I meant Flying Cow of Doom was one of the players who could tell us MHaye's information is correct.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-15-2007, 07:12 PM
Well, if you want to impersonate the Apprentice, if you say two people (other than Cultists) are Believers, you risk choosing some Non-Believer, and blowing yourself out of the water. That could be circumvented by telling the rest of the world all about the pre-Oracle investigations and saying that afterwards you had investigated players that have already died by now, etc. etc.

By mentioning several people in his post-Oracle-Death investigations and calling them all Believers, the risk an impostor took was bigger, since any one of them could have outed him. However, most of those names were people who had already role-claimed, which, again, would have simply confirmed what we already think we know.

MHaye threw Flying Cow of Doom and sachertorte into the mix. If he was an impostor and he threw two random players into his "investigations" he would have risked being called on it, by any of the two. This hasn't happened. So he probably does know their exact alignment. Which means, if he's an impostor, that he knows they won't call him out because of their false status or that he isn't an impostor and truly investigated them.This is a good way to semi-confirm MHaye's claim. I assumed that by not saying otherwise everyone would assume that I am a Believer, but to make it clear: I am a vanilla Believer. As I've basically said before, I believe MHaye's claim. If sachertorte were here, we might be able to completely confirm the claim, but he's on vacation. What a pity :rolleyes:

I say again: if MHaye is not the Apprentice, the real Apprentice needs to come forward NOW.

--FCOD

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-15-2007, 09:11 PM
To say nothing is a bad idea, so I'm chiming in to say something. Such posts of mine have an (admittedly limited) history of being perceived as suspicious by some living players.

I'm going to say it anyway, though.

One perspective on toDay's posting trends is that much harping/pleading with unclaimed power roles has been taking place. I'm not yet able to determine if I think they are pushing in the right direction, however.

I think making aggressive moves while one of our living players is otherwise indisposed is a risk. I also think the Cultists are going to press the advantage they gain due to our situation.

Such is my current, personal, quandry.

Queuing
08-15-2007, 09:26 PM
Why? Who knows. I'll be sure to ask her, though, as soon as I've been dunked :D

Well, my reasons to believe they spotted her hinge on a complicated sequence of events:

1. In Most (if not all) of the games I've been in the Doctors protect themselves unless they see someone else who is extremely likely to be protected
2. In this game, several revelations might have prompted a change of behavior. Not during this Night, though (the person who outed himself could self-protect)
3. If I'm right and Fretful Porpentine self-protected, the Night no-one died someone else was targeted. Who? Who cares?
4. When they learned of Mal's status (and, incidentally, his protection list, and, incidentally, who the psychopath was), the Cultist knew the target they had chosen (and on whom the hit had failed) must have received protection by the Priest
5. Their target was not likely a candidate for protection on that Night. Or else, since there were many targets, the Cultist gambled that the Priest couldn't self-protect during that Night, and struck

1. Ok, makes sense. Fretful may very well have seen someone
2. Ok.
3. Who knows exactly. No real way for us to know.
4. Sure, chances are good
5. Maybe, again hard to know.

However not one of these explains why you think she may have used her protect all power. To assume this is just bizarre.

Forgot to underline one point:

It's one thing to believe in luck. But don't you think it's a huge coincidence they hit her on the Night she didn't self-protect?

Maybe. Again you are assuming that it was the only night she self protected. Only she knows how often she self-protected, speculation on what she did seems to be mostly useless and I don't understand why you are focused on it. Except maybe in an attempt to convince catina suit to tell us if the power still exists.

Queuing
08-15-2007, 09:33 PM
To say nothing is a bad idea, so I'm chiming in to say something. Such posts of mine have an (admittedly limited) history of being perceived as suspicious by some living players.

I'm going to say it anyway, though.

One perspective on toDay's posting trends is that much harping/pleading with unclaimed power roles has been taking place. I'm not yet able to determine if I think they are pushing in the right direction, however.

I think making aggressive moves while one of our living players is otherwise indisposed is a risk. I also think the Cultists are going to press the advantage they gain due to our situation.

Such is my current, personal, quandry.

I agree with the harping. We have heard you and the power roles have chosen to do as they see fit. Why keep harping on it? What benefit do you hope to gain from it?

I am not sure what you mean by making aggressive moves. Do you mean the claim by mhaye? That was forced by the players who are here. I am assuming you mean sachertorte btw. This is one of the problems with the decision to keep him alive IMO. He can't claim, he can't act suspicious, he can't act believing, he can't do anything, and all we can do is let him live as anything else is to risky. For all we know HE is the apprentice. I certainly hope not as that would just fuck the believers as it opens an opportunity for scum to false claim as they near death (much like mhaye did here potentially) and we go off and kill some more believers during the Day. I don't think BM would have done this and that is why I am assuming that sachertorte is not the apprentice, but the possibility does exist.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-15-2007, 09:47 PM
I mean aggressive like all of the monks coming forward and claiming, or disregarding sachertorte in being able to prove/disprove or otherwise participate in any claiming or debate thereof, whatever sachertorte's role ends up being.

Blaster Master
08-15-2007, 10:48 PM
DiggitCamara (12) - Idle Thoughts, Queuing, FlyingCowOfDoom, Pygmy Rugger, Zeriel, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, Hockey Monkey, USCDiver, CatinaSuit, Pleonast, NAF1138, MHaye
Pleonast (1) - DiggitCamara

Voter - Action - Votee - Post
USCDiver - Vote - Pygmy Rugger - 2864
Zeriel - Vote - MHaye - 2865
FlyingCowOfDoom - Vote - MHaye - 2866
Idle Thoughts - Vote - DiggitCamara - 2867
Queuing - Vote - MHaye - 2869
Pleonast - Vote - Idle Thoughts - 2878
Pygmy Rugger - Vote - MHaye - 2911
CatinaSuit - Vote - Hockey Monkey - 2912
Hockey Monkey - Vote - Pygmy Rugger - 2915
DiggitCamara - Vote - Pleonast - 2966
Queuing - Unvote - MHaye - 2969
Queuing - Vote - DiggitCamara - 2969
FlyingCowOfDoom - Unvote - MHaye - 2973
FlyingCowOfDoom - Vote - DiggitCamara - 2973
Pygmy Rugger - Unvote - MHaye - 2974
Pygmy Rugger - Vote - DiggitCamara - 2974
Zeriel - Unvote - MHaye - 2976
Zeriel - Vote - DiggitCamara - 2976
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies - Vote - DiggitCamara - 2980
Hockey Monkey - Unvote - Pygmy Rugger - 2990
Hockey Monkey - Vote - Pygmy Rugger - 2990
Pleonast - Unvote - Idle Thoughts - 2994
USCDiver - Unvote - Pygmy Rugger - 3005
USCDiver - Vote - DiggitCamara - 3005
zuma - Vote - DiggitCamara - 3033
zuma - Unvote - DiggitCamara - 3037
CatinaSuit - Unvote - Hockey Monkey - 3045
CatinaSuit - Vote - DiggitCamara - 3049
Pleonast - Vote - DiggitCamara - 3052
NAF1138 - Vote - DiggitCamara - 3059
MHaye - Vote - DiggitCamara - 3067

Blaster Master
08-15-2007, 11:01 PM
Today, the town was renewed with hope, for it appears the rumor of the Apprentice among them WAS true; the whole time, it was the quiet and pensive MHaye... or so he claimed. He was quick to vindicate a several villagers, but even quicker to indict another, this time DiggitCamara [Ver. 2]. Quickly, vote upon vote piled upon him, until he became the unanimous decision of the town.

He tried to distill some last words of wisdom, but the town would not have it. And so, before the trial had even ended, he'd had enough. Rising from his seat, with heavy heart, he spoke his last words: "Nairu bless you all. May my sacrifice not be in vain." And with that he made the lonely walk up the steps to the pool, as the town watched in shock.

With a final sigh, he stepped into the water, and despite his lungs full of air, he sank like a stone...

DiggitCamara [Ver. 2], a Citizen, has drowned.
-------------------------------------------------------
The Night will end at 11:59 PM on Friday or when all Night instructions have been received.

Blaster Master
08-15-2007, 11:03 PM
Alive
2 USCDiver
3 Idle Thoughts
5 Hockey Monkey
7 NAF1138
8 sachertorte
10 CatinaSuit
12 Kyrie Eleison
14 Pleonast
17 Pygmy Rugger
19 FlyingCowOfDoom
21 Queuing
22 Zeriel
23 zuma [Ver. 2]
24 ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
27 MHaye

Dead
11 Mtgman - Non-Believer - Day One
4 zuma [Ver. 1] - Citizen - Night One
1 Kat - Cultist - Day Two
6 storyteller0910 - Monk - Night Two
15 DiggitCamara [Ver. 1] - Crusader - Night Two
20 Scuba_Ben - Citizen - Day Three
13 Hal Briston - Oracle - Night Three
29 MadTheSwine - Citizen - Day Four
9 SnakesCatLady - Citizen - Night Four
30 Captain Klutz - Non-Believer - Day Five
26 HazelNutCoffee - Citizen - Night Five
28 fluiddruid - Citizen - Day Six
18 amrussell - Psychopath - Day Seven
16 Fretful Porpentine - Priest - Night Seven
25 DiggitCamara [Ver. 2] - Citizen - Day Eight

Substitutions
Kyrie Eleison (Repl. Clockwork Jackal )
Nava (Repl. Captain Carrot )
Kat (Repl. ArizonaTeach )
DiggitCamara [Ver. 2] (Repl. Autolycus )
Zuma [Ver. 2] (Repl. MonkeyMensch )
amrussell (Repl. Pasta )
Pygmy Rugger (Repl. Nava )
CatinaSuit (Repl. Malacandra )

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-15-2007, 11:31 PM
Curse you, _________ !!!

<insert bad Apprentice luck or crafty scum as needed>

Idle Thoughts
08-16-2007, 12:02 AM
I'd actually guess it was a combo of the two.
Well, R.I.P. Diggit. Again.

Screw the Coke. I'll take something harder this time.

CatInASuit
08-16-2007, 03:00 AM
Well, that sucked!! :mad:

Sorry, Diggit, I hope you death does not go in vain.

Now, somebody give me a bowl of double cream and an olive.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-16-2007, 07:41 AM
Can't say I'm that surprised. RIP Diggit.

--FCOD

Zeriel
08-16-2007, 07:59 AM
Oddly, I still feel some hope.

Queuing
08-16-2007, 08:53 AM
Well I suppose I am not overly surprised. RIP Diggit Camara. Let's hope the apprentice keeps getting reads.

DiggitCamara
08-16-2007, 10:02 AM
[Terminator mode]
[Austrian accent]
I'll be back!
[/Austrian accent]
[/Terminator mode]

Ok. Not really. Good luck, town!

Santo Rugger
08-16-2007, 12:02 PM
Sorry, Diggit, we didn't really have a choice.

CatInASuit
08-16-2007, 02:50 PM
This place is really quiet tonight where is everybody???

In honour of our dearly departed Citizen,

There was a citizen called DiggitCamara
Who got into a bit of a lather
Accused of the crime
Being a cultist full-time
Which ended when he was dunked and was proved to be a believer and everyone was sorry.

Hmm, I think I need to work on my limericks :p

Scuba_Ben
08-16-2007, 03:10 PM
This place is really quiet tonight where is everybody???

In honour of our dearly departed Citizen,

There was a citizen called DiggitCamara
Who got into a bit of a lather
Accused of the crime
Being a cultist full-time
Which ended when he was dunked and was proved to be a believer and everyone was sorry.

Hmm, I think I need to work on my limericks :p

That's better than one I tried a while back:

Why do my haiku
Always end after two lines?

Zeriel
08-16-2007, 04:24 PM
Bartender, could I get a double whiskey and two earplugs please?

Idle Thoughts
08-16-2007, 04:35 PM
Maybe I should restart Hal's Air Supply tribute!

Fretful Porpentine
08-16-2007, 05:00 PM
:: haunts ::

There was an old man from Anjou
Whose limericks stopped at line two.

There was an old man from Verdun.

Idle Thoughts
08-16-2007, 05:32 PM
[off-game]I see over at Asylum Lane that it's FCoD's birthday. Have a great one.

Oh, and I PMed you the password to Limbo. If anyone else here is following my game along over there and wants the password, just register over there and PM me (or just PM me if you already have an account over there) and I'll tell you it. I've revealed what everyone is in Limbo so it'd be watching with perfect knowledge. (Although if you're in the game currently you won't get it. : p By the same token, if you're on the sub list, receiving the password will make your chance of being a sub null and void)[/off-game]

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-16-2007, 06:08 PM
[off-game]I see over at Asylum Lane that it's FCoD's birthday. Have a great one.

Oh, and I PMed you the password to Limbo. If anyone else here is following my game along over there and wants the password, just register over there and PM me (or just PM me if you already have an account over there) and I'll tell you it. I've revealed what everyone is in Limbo so it'd be watching with perfect knowledge. (Although if you're in the game currently you won't get it. : p By the same token, if you're on the sub list, receiving the password will make your chance of being a sub null and void)[/off-game]Thanks :D

Here's hoping the Cult doesn't kill me on my birthday!

--FCOD

Kyrie Eleison
08-16-2007, 08:48 PM
Hmm, I think I need to work on my limericks :p
I just returned home from Nantucket. How odd to find that the thread has taken this turn, when I've spent the last couple of days fighting it off.

Hal Briston
08-16-2007, 09:34 PM
Maybe I should restart Hal's Air Supply tribute![spectral form]
Careful...that's the kinda thing that can get'cha killed around here...
[/spectral form]

USCDiver
08-17-2007, 01:29 AM
Just popping in to say that I will be out of town Fri-Sun and will miss the last of the Night and first of the Day. I should be able to catch up Sun afternoon. Please don't kill anyone while I'm gone.

CatInASuit
08-17-2007, 03:52 AM
Maybe I should restart Hal's Air Supply tribute!

I have a feeling I really shouldn't ask about this, but can't help it.


Tell all, please, pretty please...


(Damn my curiousity)

Hal Briston
08-17-2007, 09:48 AM
I have a feeling I really shouldn't ask about this, but can't help it.

Tell all, please, pretty please...I got impatient on Night Three (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=426256&page=35&pp=50) (beginning with Post #1736).

Pleonast
08-17-2007, 11:30 AM
Come, Cultists, hurry up and sacrifice someone.

CatInASuit
08-17-2007, 11:50 AM
Come, Cultists, hurry up and sacrifice someone.
SSSssssshhhhhhh!!!!!

If we get Ghostly Hal to sing a bit more, they might spend all night in their temple and do nothing instead. :p

Hal Briston
08-17-2007, 11:59 AM
Hey, waitaminute...she's right! I can sing all I want, and the scum can't do a whit about it now!

Girl, you're every woman in the world to me
You're my fantasy...you're my reality
Girl, you're every woman in the world to me
You're everything I need...you're everything to me
Ohhhh girl

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-17-2007, 12:08 PM
No no no...that's "Oh giiiir-rrr-rrrrrlll..."

Pleonast
08-17-2007, 12:09 PM
Hey, waitaminute...she's right! I can sing all I want, and the scum can't do a whit about it now!They can put someone else out of their misery. Please?

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-17-2007, 12:09 PM
Ok. I volunteer to be killed if it will end the Night before Hal comes back.

--FCOD

Scuba_Ben
08-17-2007, 12:15 PM
You the Living only have to listen to Hal at Night. Over in the Forbidden Thread, we the Dead have to hear him All. Day. Long.

Pleonast
08-17-2007, 12:17 PM
You the Living only have to listen to Hal at Night. Over in the Forbidden Thread, we the Dead have to hear him All. Day. Long.Hmm, in that case, I also volunteer FlyingCowOfDoom to be sacrificed to stop Hal's singing. It's a win-win situation!

Hal Briston
08-17-2007, 12:20 PM
Hey, at least I'm making good tips over there.

Anyway...

And I know the roads to riches
And I know the ways to pain!
I know all the rules and then I know how to breakíem
And then I always know the name of the game!

But I donít know how to leave you
And Iíll never let you fall
And I donít know how you do it
Making looooooooove out of nothing at all...

Take it, Pleonast!

Queuing
08-17-2007, 12:45 PM
I am thankful that I have pretty much no idea who air supply is or whatever the hell Ghost Hal is singing about.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-17-2007, 12:53 PM
I am thankful that I have pretty much no idea who air supply is or whatever the hell Ghost Hal is singing about.

In other words, Queing, you're...

Lost in love
And ya don't know much

:D

CatInASuit
08-17-2007, 01:16 PM
<goes to Wikipedia>
.
.
<looks up Air Supply.>
.
.
<decides you can keep them>
.
.
<fires up Karaoke machine>
.
.
<counters with Kylie and Jason>
.
.

Especially for Ewe
I wanna let you know what I was going through
All the time we were apart I thought of Ewe

Ewe were in my heart
My love never changed
I still feel the same .....


All yours Hal :D

Hockey Monkey
08-17-2007, 01:30 PM
Y
M
C
A

Just wanna stay at the

Y
M
C
A-A



Now it's in ur head! :::Cackles:::

(Crap now it's in my head!)

Hockey Monkey
08-17-2007, 02:02 PM
Y
M
C
A

Just wanna stay at the

Y
M
C
A-A



Now it's in ur head! :::Cackles:::

(Crap now it's in my head!)

Hockey Monkey
08-17-2007, 02:06 PM
Frak! A double post! Since I can't edit, you guys are going to have to deal with it.


:::silent cackle:::

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-17-2007, 02:12 PM
How do you double post 32 minutes after?

--FCOD

Hockey Monkey
08-17-2007, 02:16 PM
I was over on Asylum Lane, and it had timed out when I hit post reply, so I hit refresh when I came back over here. Whammo, double post. :(

Idle Thoughts
08-17-2007, 02:26 PM
Yeah! She can't help it if she was having fun over at Asylum Lane. You log in there and you just can't help but join the party. You get carried away. It takes you over. It's like a non-stop dissssssssssscooooooooo.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-17-2007, 02:26 PM
Good answer.

WHY IS THIS TAKING SO LONG!!!!!!

--FCOD

Idle Thoughts
08-17-2007, 02:27 PM
I know it was a good answer!



;) Kidding, kidding. I also know you thought you were replying to Hockey and had no knowledge of my great, insightful reply that you just happened to post to at the same time. :(

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-17-2007, 02:31 PM
Well that's strange. I've been away from me desk for about an hour so far this afternoon. I just hit Ctrl-V, and this is what is pasted:

how big is the zoidberg

WTF?

--FCOD

Zeriel
08-17-2007, 02:44 PM
Your computer is trying to kill itself by randomly overwriting bits of it's own memory--it can hear Hal singing, too.

NAF1138
08-17-2007, 05:53 PM
Just a warning because it has been a while since a Day started on the weekend so, as a reminder, I can't really post on the weekends. Maybe 1 or 2 posts all weekend. I ::ahem:: have a similar weekend affliction as Blaster.

But, on the upside, work has slowed down a good bit. :D

Queuing
08-17-2007, 07:13 PM
In other words, Queing, you're...

Lost in love
And ya don't know much

:D

I am assuming that is some sort of Air Supply joke, however I freely admit that in many ways it is applicable :).

Idle Thoughts
08-17-2007, 08:16 PM
I like how you put the period after the smile.

Zeriel
08-17-2007, 10:24 PM
By Nairu, I actually hope someone kills me so I can enjoy the blessed silence of the grave.

Blaster Master
08-17-2007, 11:54 PM
Dawn coming up.

Blaster Master
08-18-2007, 12:12 AM
The Day had been a rollercoaster of emotions. Finally someone had stepped forth and claimed to be the mysterious Apprentice; a renewed town felt a wave of relief, which had quickly turned despair as the man he'd fingered as a Non-Believer, DiggitCamara [Ver. 2], turned out to be exactly the opposite.

This Night, the quiet was sullenly quiet. With many long faces, many simply skipped the bar and headed straight for home including the monk Zeriel. Unlike his brethren, who were forced to wait until the Night and take the long routes back to the monastery to ensure their secrets remained safe... Zeriel had stopped bothering some time ago, for they'd known he was a monk for some time. Sure, he had a target on his back, but there were bigger fish to fry like...

A rush of dread overcame him as the realization struck. The priest was dead, and the Apprentice seemed to be out in the open. Surely, he was the cult's best target, and he'd foolishly taken the main road, where he could easily be ambushed. And worse yet, he was far enough outside of town now, that his screams could not be heard.

As the morning sun rose, the citizens turned to see a Zeriel's mare slowly trotting into the square... unmounted. A brief rabble ensued, as they wondered what had happened to her rider, until they saw her burden. Behind her, dragged by a noose around his neck, lay the mutilated remains of who could only be Zeriel. Surely, this was the work of the cult by the way his heart, eyes, and this time, his teeth, had all been removed. Afterward, it seemed as though his corpse had been flogged for a considerable period, by the shreds of dismembered flesh that remained.

Zeriel, a Monk, has been sacrificed.
-----------------------------------------
The Day will end at 11:15 PM EDT on Tuesday. Yes, I'm cutting out two hours, to make the time a bit more convenient, I think.

Blaster Master
08-18-2007, 12:15 AM
Alive
2 USCDiver
3 Idle Thoughts
5 Hockey Monkey
7 NAF1138
8 sachertorte
10 CatinaSuit
12 Kyrie Eleison
14 Pleonast
17 Pygmy Rugger
19 FlyingCowOfDoom
21 Queuing
23 zuma [Ver. 2]
24 ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
27 MHaye

Dead
11 Mtgman - Non-Believer - Day One
4 zuma [Ver. 1] - Citizen - Night One
1 Kat - Cultist - Day Two
6 storyteller0910 - Monk - Night Two
15 DiggitCamara [Ver. 1] - Crusader - Night Two
20 Scuba_Ben - Citizen - Day Three
13 Hal Briston - Oracle - Night Three
29 MadTheSwine - Citizen - Day Four
9 SnakesCatLady - Citizen - Night Four
30 Captain Klutz - Non-Believer - Day Five
26 HazelNutCoffee - Citizen - Night Five
28 fluiddruid - Citizen - Day Six
18 amrussell - Psychopath - Day Seven
16 Fretful Porpentine - Priest - Night Seven
25 DiggitCamara [Ver. 2] - Citizen - Day Eight
22 Zeriel - Monk - Night Eight

Substitutions
Kyrie Eleison (Repl. Clockwork Jackal )
Nava (Repl. Captain Carrot )
Kat (Repl. ArizonaTeach )
DiggitCamara [Ver. 2] (Repl. Autolycus )
Zuma [Ver. 2] (Repl. MonkeyMensch )
amrussell (Repl. Pasta )
Pygmy Rugger (Repl. Nava )
CatinaSuit (Repl. Malacandra )

CatInASuit
08-18-2007, 12:22 AM
@rse, another solid citizen gone. :(

Sorry to see you go Zeriel and here's hoping we have better luck today.

MHaye
08-18-2007, 03:04 AM
Farewell Zeriel. Have fun in the afterlife.

Unfortunately, I have nothing to report on my investigation of Queueing beyond the fact that it was Queueing I investigated. My reading was a jumble of confused and conflicting visions.

Perhaps it's not surprising, but it is disappointing.

zuma
08-18-2007, 05:57 AM
That's pretty convenient, MHaye.

I'm going to have something to say about these various role-claims and townie upon townie getting strung up. I'll also apologize for not checking in for the last 30 hours of so of yesterday... I meant to definitely before the day ended and I kind of screwed up in that respect. I Got hung up at work again. Anyway I jsut got badck from SF and kind of drunk but I'll jsut say right now MHaye I don't believe his role claim.

MHaye I would not be surprised if you werew about ot be exposed.

zuma
08-18-2007, 06:08 AM
mhaye you are not the apprentice. I should not post drunk. but he is not hte apprentice

CatInASuit
08-18-2007, 06:17 AM
mhaye you are not the apprentice. I should not post drunk. but he is not hte apprentice


Zuma

I suggest going and sleeping it off. Then when you have had several strong cups of coffee, come back and tell us what you mean.

Any theories you have would be useful, but they are only good to the town if you are coherent

zuma
08-18-2007, 06:50 AM
Zuma

I suggest going and sleeping it off. Then when you have had several strong cups of coffee, come back and tell us what you mean.

Any theories you have would be useful, but they are only good to the town if you are coherent

it was lefty oduouls. so lame at least i rode bart home and my GF IS PISSED hahaawetr

ok yes the coffee

id vote mhaye if i could figfure out the colors ok gf is about to leave me must go we going with mom for her bday tomorrow and gf and i are seeing suberpad afterward. ok no more drunk posts vote mhaye

zuma
08-18-2007, 07:15 AM
diggit i am sorrry :( i screwd up

Zeriel
08-18-2007, 11:56 AM
When they're killing me, they can't be killing someone truly useful. Avenge me, brethern.

Hockey Monkey
08-18-2007, 12:17 PM
Wtf?

CatInASuit
08-18-2007, 12:23 PM
I know, I think it has been a bad morning for some.

Zeriel, I certainly hope you will be avenged, or we are stuffed

Hockey Monkey
08-18-2007, 12:55 PM
Now would be a very good time for the remaining Monks to come forward, so we can focus our efforts on the unknowns today. Please don't wait until you are about to be dunked. And if MHaye is not the real Apprentice, now would also be a good time for the real one to step out from behind the curtain, so we can kill MHaye.

CatInASuit
08-18-2007, 03:47 PM
Actually I disagree about the Monk coming forth at this point in time. I think we can narrow things down without it being required. I say single Monk because in all the games so far there have been three of them.

However, if anyone does want to come out and challenge the existing role claims - now would be the time.

Amended possible town population

5 Cult : Prophet, 4 Cultists (inc. 1 Avatar)
3 Non-believers : Alchemist, 2 non-believer,
1 Special Role: Martyr
5 Town: Disciple, Apprentice, 1 Monks, 2 vanilla town

CatInASuit
08-18-2007, 04:07 PM
OK, thoughts on last nights action.

As I see it the Cultists had three possible actions they should have taken last night.

1. Neutralise the Apprentice.
2. Kill the Disciple
3. Kill the Monk

I can't think of other moves which would have helped the Cultists as much.

From this I reckon the following.
1. They killed Zeriel last night. This means they were expecting me to guard myself and the Apprentice last night (my obvious action if I have the materials for the ritual).

1a. This means the cult does not think that the Priest carried out the ritual to protect everyone.

1b. Fretful Porcupine was identified in some other way. Looking through FP's post there was nothing really identifiable or more likely, nothing FP said that would lead to the Cult.

1c. My guess is that FP was target on Night six and was self protected. When Malacandra role-claimed on the next day, FP protected him and allowed the Cult a free hit.

1d. This means there has been no recruitment yet.

2. The Cult did not recruit last night

2a. This means the Cult is confident that the Prophet will remain alive for a few days at least.

2b. If the Cult is that sure, then it is likely they are in a position where they would not be a dunk target.

2c. A claimed role would not a safe point due to a counter claim, however, a known believer is a much stronger possiblity, as it is unlikely the town would agree to dunk one of them.

I have a few more thoughts to come later.
Does what I am saying follow logically and make sense??

Idle Thoughts
08-18-2007, 04:10 PM
R.I.P Zeriel.

Man, slow Day or what? Where is everyone?
zuma, you okay, man? Your behavior is very erratic and while I'd like to think it's the booze talking, it still doesn't make any sense? Is there a good reason you don't believe Mhaye's claim?

Meanwhile, it looks like neither Diggit or Captain Klutz was scum after all. : /

Looking at the list of players..I'm going to do another narrowing down to see where my vote best lies with.

2 USCDiver
3 Idle Thoughts
5 Hockey Monkey
7 NAF1138
8 sachertorte
10 CatinaSuit
12 Kyrie Eleison
14 Pleonast
17 Pygmy Rugger
19 FlyingCowOfDoom
21 Queuing
23 zuma [Ver. 2]
24 ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
27 MHaye


Obviously I'm not going to vote for myself.

That being said...I won't be voting for MHaye either. For now I guess I believe him.

That earlier NoKill, though, still scares me. It was either a fail at a kill or a failed or successful recruit. Well, I suppose Hockey could have also blocked but I don't think any info on that end is good to reveal, sorta like revealing who Priests and Disciples protect and the like. I just don't see what good it does overall and it's never known what could or could not help the dark side along.

The Night following the NoKill, though, Fretful was butchered. The thoughts in my head are "were scum just lucky like seemingly earlier in the game or was something known there"? It's possible the NoKill Night before that was them maybe trying for a kill or recruit of her and failing? Then either trying again (if it was a kill) or trying a kill (if it was a failed recruit) and hitting paydirt.

It would explain the finding, at least, but I've learned in this game never to try to focus on one solution or person (all too well).

For my own thoughts, I'm going to write down all the cases I think it could be or mean.

NoKill Night = Failed kill. - Well a power role with protection or someone who was being protected must have tried being hit. But the next kill was of Fretful so I'm wondering if scum would have changed kill targets or tried for the one they had just tried for. This game is based on how well town can think as scum and visa versa. Just going off my own thoughts, if I were blocked on a kill, I wouldn't just go for another person...athough game history (M3) shows the scum have done this before. Still, it'd make sense to try hitting again just to be sure.

Nokill Night = Failed recruit - Again, who would the Cultists have tried for if/when we know that Fretful was the next Night's kill? Does it say anything? Or is a cigar just a cigar in this case? Again, if it was failed though (and in this option I'm going under the belief that it was), I think they'd know it was a power role of some kind. Either Monk, Preist, or Disciple. I think it would garner another hit the next time by way of kill if it was a failed recruit..which would be Fretful the Priest.

Nokill Night = Successful Recruit - Well, this, of course, bears the question, who would they have gone for. Looking at the list, there's still a bit of unknowns, although any of them could already be Cult. Cult knows who is who, though, so I wonder if they'd more likely go after someone who had a role but was recruitable (like Hockey) or someone who was cleared as a believer (like FCoD or Sach). Speaking of sach, he's been away for awhile. I think a recruit of him would be ingenius almost because nobody would probably start looking at him until he was back and posting again. Then again, maybe it's TOO obvious.

Typing all of this out because I'm trying to figure out, if for myself only, what the NoKill Night was and what it could mean. I'm wary of it being three...and if it is, I'm more leery of Hockey again, along with stronger suspicions of those already found as "believer". They actually have two things against them as they could be the Prophet, for one, or a recruit, who also reads as "believer".

All I know is, if I were scum, and I was trying for a recruit, I'd try for someone who was already taken in as "confirmed" town one way or another.


So, back to the list.

2 USCDiver
5 Hockey Monkey - Alchemist?
7 NAF1138
8 sachertorte
12 Kyrie Eleison
17 Pygmy Rugger
19 FlyingCowOfDoom
21 Queuing
23 zuma [Ver. 2]
24 ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

Not voting for

3 Idle thoughts - Not voting for myself
10 CatinaSuit - Disciple?
14 Pleonast - Special role?
27 MHaye - Apprentice?

MHaye and Pleonast could also be recruits if three is the case, although recruit or not, I would not risk voting for MHaye and, at least to me, Pleonast is shrouded in mystery. We don't even know if he can be recruited or not, and that's good because Cult doesn't know either. I don't think they'd take the chance. Then again, this is simply my own idle thoughts. But it being the case, I don't see myself voting for Pleo toDay.

It's interesting Queuing's status not coming up, but I guess that's the breaks when you're a role that is based on percentages.

So huh. The only two left on the list, other than the new suspicions I just gave, that I ALREADY had suspicions of are Cookies and Kyrie. They've festered for awhile now, although with Diggit coming up town, I'd like to hear from Kyrie what his thoughts are about me now, if anything different.

And as for Cookies she's the highest one on my suspected list right now based on all our interactions and other weird things from the past, which I'll happy give and list again upon request but it's all there on past days. Mostly for thinking I'm weird for not stating reasons before which I had many times, voting for a power role a couple times AFTER the claim, and not ever saying much of anything one way or another. She seems to hide mostly in the shadows and try to stay off radars...so she has from the start of the game.

As the game goes on more and more and the player list shrinks, I, at least, can only go on what feelings and suspicions I had for awhile. At this point I feel safer and stronger voting for people early on for a few reasons. For one, the game always seems to grow speedier as it goes on and the player list is whittled down. For two, it gives people a chance to role claim if need be.

vote for ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

My vote is not set in stone by far. I'll be reviewing again a lot of the stuff I only read two or three times when I was away in Chicago...and if new insight/revelations come up, or even a good reason why I should vote for someone else comes up, I'll consider it.

Idle Thoughts
08-18-2007, 04:14 PM
Dammit, I completely forgot about the huge, strong prayer that the Priest has. That sorta throws some of my theories out of wack, but it still works a bit if they targeted Fretful two Nights in a row. This means, in one, two and four (all powerful prayer) it would make sense how scum found the Priest if a thwartion came in some manner the Night before. A retry maybe?

I dunno. It makes sense...but I think it'd be foolish to, at least, not remember it could have been a recruition.

Why does this game have to always be like this? It hurts my brain.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-18-2007, 06:24 PM
Alrighty then. Things are getting interesting.

I've had my suspicions of Idle for some time as well, but there will be no OMGUS vote from me...at least not yet.

I'd like to see how everyone digests a few things before plunking my vote down.

I'm a Monk. And my remaining compatriot may not be immediately available to confirm me, because he's on vacation. When the hell is sachertorte due back, anyway? I tell ya, it has been a royal bitch trying to do those harmonic chants with just two sets of pipes. Now that Zeriel is resting upon the bossom of Nairu, the chants are going to have to wait, along with my confirmation, on sachertorte's return.

This should help explain my seemingly stubborn attentions in the direction of Hockey Monkey, even after she role-claimed.

One just can't help but notice when 3 of the 4 Monks are called out in a group FOS, such as what occured in 1405 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8765889&postcount=1405)

I really hope the cult blew their chance at conversion on the no-kill night.

Santo Rugger
08-18-2007, 07:07 PM
[off game] I'm in the middle of a pretty busy weekend. If I don't post something substantial tomorrow, I will on Monday for sure. [/og]

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-18-2007, 07:18 PM
Now that I can communicate with my fellow Monk, I would like to say that I sure as hell hope you come back in here with some kick-ass analysis with your fresh eyes, because we are sinking like a waterbuffalo's scrotum.

Idle Thoughts
08-18-2007, 07:20 PM
Okay, now THIS is really, really interesting. Let me review everything again and prepare my soon to be long post. Ohhhh boy.

Idle Thoughts
08-18-2007, 07:58 PM
Okay, I've found and read and gathered and reviewed and thought about everything I need for this post.

My vote stands for cookies and this time I'm positive.

Because, see, she is not a monk. I should know because I'm a monk and zuma is the third one. From the beginning there were four of us: storyteller, Zeriel, zuma, and myself.

So this is very, very interesting indeed...because from this long post from MHaye (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8879711&postcount=2967), he states:

Night 7 saw me investigate Sachertorte, who also believes in Nairu.

And this being after Hal the Oracle was dead...so his (MHaye's) reads were either "no read" like Queuing's last Night, or correct.

However I know Cookies is scum (either that or a Winston like player who is claiming to save her own skin no matter what, but I'm choosing to believe the former)...so her saying that sach is a Monk as well is either a gutsy move what with him being gone or only one other thing. That he's not himself anymore and has been converted. That is the only possible and really, the ONLY explanation it can be if MHaye IS, in fact, the Apprentice and that IS the read he got.

Furthermore, from the rules at the start of this game in this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8714490&postcount=2) (snipped about the recruit):

Further, because the recruit is the result of twisting his mind and not a change of heart, he will ALSO continue to appear as he would previously would to the Oracle and Apprentice.

So it has to be like I thought it was and was talking about in this post made earlier toDay. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8892965&postcount=3148)

So anyway, there you have it. Cookies is lying. I don't know why or what for or what she thought she'd gain but yeah, she's not a Monk, that's for dang sure. She just killed herself with that claim. Because no matter if you dunk her and then sach or me first, it's worth it to get two scum, I feel. One monk for two of them? Dunk me if you will but SHE IS LYING.

That being said, I can now ask zuma outright (much like I poked at earlier) why he thinks MHaye is lying and not the Apprentice. Me, I'm leaning toward believing him (MHaye, that is) so I hope he (zuma, that is) get's back sometime post haste to explain...and this time a bit more in sober mode.

CatInASuit
08-18-2007, 08:49 PM
Ok, and now things get interesting

Role Claimed
CatinaSuit Disciple
Pleonast Martyr
MHaye Apprentice
Hockey Monkey Alchemist

detected as believers ( and so possibly including the Prophet)
sachertorte
FlyingCowOfDoom

Theory #2 townies
NAF1138
Idle Thoughts
Kyrie Eleison

Unknowns
USCDiver
Pygmy Rugger
Queuing
zuma [Ver. 2]
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

Right, looking back at the way people voted, I realised that the same pattern I saw for Day 2 also existed in Day 1 as well, when AZT/Kat was also in the lead for being dunked.

Frankly, I don't think any of the three Theory #2 townies are Cultists.

My main cult suspects though have been and the people who have really pinged my scumdar are Queuing ,sachertorte and USCDiver. Although anyone else in the Unknowns list should require close attention.

Yesterday's dunking was a bandwagon and when asking for any justification, Queuing's response was that it was a reasonable percentage chance. No extra justification, no, "he looks and sounds scummy because of this post", just "the Apprentice says he is a non-believer, so we dunk him".

Idle Thoughts - one problem with your scenario, the Monks cannot be converted. Which means that if Cookies is lying and MHaye is telling the truth, then sachertorte is a scum who registers as Believer to anyone looking.

ie. sachertorte is the Prophet (see also Theory #1)

CatInASuit
08-18-2007, 08:56 PM
One other thing.

If there are four Monks in this game (as it looks like certain people are claiming), then that really unbalances the game towards the town in terms of power roles.

I am beginning to get the feeling that the Super Secret role that Pleonast has claimed is in fact not a pro-town role.

Trying to balance this game out, would make me suspect that the Cult had it's own "Beat Cop" working for them to help flush out roles.

And of course, if they get into trouble and roleclaim, no-one is going to be able to contradict them.

Just thinking out loud, of course.

Idle Thoughts
08-18-2007, 09:17 PM
Idle Thoughts - one problem with your scenario, the Monks cannot be converted. Which means that if Cookies is lying and MHaye is telling the truth, then sachertorte is a scum who registers as Believer to anyone looking.

ie. sachertorte is the Prophet (see also Theory #1)

Snipped.

Huh?

zuma and I are the last two Monks. Cookies, I assume, has to be scum. Therefore I assume that the one she's claiming is the "other Monk" (Sach), has to be scum too..although MHaye said he investigated him and he came up believer. Since his readings no longer, as far as I know, have a chance of being wrong (but instead only the chance of getting NO read), I think Sach might be the Prophet, yes...but I actually feel more that he might be the recruit too, which would also read as a believer.

Just call it a hunch.

But any way you look at it...something is making him show up believer when he isn't...if only because Cookies just brought him down with her with her false claim.

Hockey Monkey
08-18-2007, 10:44 PM
Alrighty then. Things are getting interesting.

I've had my suspicions of Idle for some time as well, but there will be no OMGUS vote from me...at least not yet.

I'd like to see how everyone digests a few things before plunking my vote down.

I'm a Monk. And my remaining compatriot may not be immediately available to confirm me, because he's on vacation. When the hell is sachertorte due back, anyway? I tell ya, it has been a royal bitch trying to do those harmonic chants with just two sets of pipes. Now that Zeriel is resting upon the bossom of Nairu, the chants are going to have to wait, along with my confirmation, on sachertorte's return.

This should help explain my seemingly stubborn attentions in the direction of Hockey Monkey, even after she role-claimed.

One just can't help but notice when 3 of the 4 Monks are called out in a group FOS, such as what occured in 1405 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8765889&postcount=1405)

I really hope the cult blew their chance at conversion on the no-kill night.

Well, in that light it does seem suspicious, and now I know why at least why you have been so adamant in your suspicion of me. I thought up till this point that you were scum. Now I can give some information that may be of some use to the town. On night 7 when there was no kill, I sprinkled my sleeping potion on Kyrie Eleison. It could be that my action had no effect whatsoever. It could also mean that a recruitment attempt was made and the Prophet was blocked. For right now, this is the best suspicion that I have so I will vote for Kyrie Eleison.

The pool is now narrowed to (in no particular order):
Kyrie Eleison
Idle Thoughts
USC Diver
NAF1138
Pygmy Rugger
Queuing
Zuma

Of these 7, I think there are 4 scum left...based on the starting number of players. There could be as few as 3 and as many as 5 left. I think that Idle and Queuing are 2 of those. Anyone else have some thoughts?

Hockey Monkey
08-18-2007, 10:50 PM
And now I see that there is some controversy over who the Monks are. Now I don't know what to think. This is why I wanted the Monks to come forward yesterDay when Zerial could confirm them. :rolleyes: I'm leaving my vote where it is for now and will watch carefully.

Idle Thoughts
08-18-2007, 10:53 PM
Yeah, me. I have thoughts. As my name says, get it? But not so much thoughts as KNOWINGS, actually. Did you not see my posts, Hockey? I have no idea if Cookies is scum or not but I DO KNOW she is lying through her teeth about being a Monk. So that leads me to believe with about 99.9 surity that she, and most likely Sach, ARE Cultists.

Idle Thoughts
08-18-2007, 10:54 PM
Ah, well, I see you did now.

Hockey Monkey
08-18-2007, 10:58 PM
I need a blaring horn and a flashing light to tell me there is another page when I come in and hit refresh. :smack:

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-18-2007, 11:37 PM
Looking back through the game, if you consider that sachertorte and I are monks, you will see me come as close as I could to defending him on many occasions. You will also may observe general pussy-footing between sachertorte, Zeriel and myself. At least I hope that something will be audible in hindsight for each (or at least some) of the times I got nervous about our relationships being too transparent. My various suspicions about Idle are also sprinkled throughout the game.

I believe Hockey is telling the trough about the no-kill night, and I can at least confirm that Mhaye's claim that sachertorte reads as town is at least accurate. You all have to decide for yourself how you feel about Mhaye otherwise.

I think the town should consider persuing Kyrie, because Idle wouldn't be putting both he and zuma's scummy necks out on the line if either of them were the Prophet. All it takes is me or sachertore to die, or sachertorte to return for things to get awfully wet for Idle and zuma. I do not think the Prophet would be risking his or her neck as such.



And as for this BS about sachertorte being the Prophet

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-18-2007, 11:39 PM
it is just that...BS. :)

CatInASuit
08-19-2007, 01:27 AM
Morning all,

Well, I actually went back and read all of sachertorte's posts last night (Nairu help me). I will be honest and say that in only a couple of posts does he post something that to me looks scummy. However, the general way in which he is playing just strikes me as wrong.

The main people he interacted with though were Queuing and USCDiver. No, I do not see the pussyfooting around between Cookies, Zeriel and sachertorte.

What I did notice in passing was Cookies unvoting a Cultist and not revoting again on Day 2.

Also for the non-kill night - use Occam's Razor

1. FP was self-protected on the night of the hit.
2. FP was protecting the now claimed Disciple on the next night.

If there is a simpler solution, please let me know

Hockey Monkey - Sorry, but unless we have a large reduction in Cult numbers I don't see the Alchemists as being effective. I also don't think Kyrie Eleison is a Cultist ;)

What is really annoying is that if there were four monks, Zeriel could have named one of them without totally losing their effeectiveness :(

At this point in time, I am more likely to believe Idle Thoughts than Cookies

Santo Rugger
08-19-2007, 01:37 AM
<snip>
At this point in time, I am more likely to believe Idle Thoughts than Cookies

Especially since it's pretty convenient that Cookies named sach, who's made it well known that he'll be on vacation till the end of the Day.

sachertorte
08-19-2007, 04:10 AM
Hi. I'm back. As far as I can tell, I'm still alive. I'm reading now.

MHaye
08-19-2007, 05:01 AM
I think somebody may have been misreading my roleclaim post. Just to remind people what I put in.

Firstly, how I was going to report my results.Before revealing the investigations, please understand that if the subject is still alive, I will report only one of three results. The subject believes in Nairu,
the subject does not believe in Nairu,
or the subject is the Avatar of Sekham.I'll reveal the actual results of investigations of dead players.[quote]What This Means is "I'm not going to say whether a living investigatee is a Believer or a town-aligned power role."

Then what I actually reported for Sachertorte.[quote=Me again]Night 7 saw me investigate Sachertorte, who also believes in Nairu.I never said Sachertorte had the role of Believer - I said he believed in Nairu. You'll notice that I used the same language for all the other investigatees, even though both Pleonast and CatinaSuit had claimed Town-aligned roles before I made my claim.

I prefer to let power roles do what they will rather than force my ideas on them, so I carefully avoided confirming any power role status - and I'll remind you that this issue was discussed in Day 5 when Zeriel claimed, and at that time no more Monks came forward. So I chose to blur the results of all Town aligned readings into the generic "Ecks believes in Nairu."

With this controversy, I think the town needs the extra piece of information to sort out the argument.

Sachertorte is a Monk.
CatinaSuit is indeed the Disciple.
FlyingCowofDoom is just what he said at the end of Yesterday. A vanilla Believer.
Pleonast came up as a Believer.

What this means is that Sachertorte will be able to tell us truthfully whether DarkCookies is a Monk or not, when he finally gets to this point.

Welcome back from holiday, Sachertorte. Good timing.

(For some bizarre reason I'm unable to preview my post. I hope the hamsters are still working,,,)

CatInASuit
08-19-2007, 05:17 AM
Hi. I'm back. As far as I can tell, I'm still alive. I'm reading now.

Simple question sachertorte: Are you the Alchemist? If not, what are you.

MHaye
08-19-2007, 05:30 AM
:smack:

Sorry about 3168. Most of the text is still there, if you quote it. I failed to close a quote tag properly. Reasearch in ATMB revealed my blunder.

I'm going to try reposting it below. Fortunately I was able to paste the post into an OpenOffice document, complete with the quote causing the problem, now fixed.

- x - x - x - x - x -

I think somebody may have been misreading my roleclaim post. Just to remind people what I put in.

Firstly, how I was going to report my results.Before revealing the investigations, please understand that if the subject is still alive, I will report only one of three results. The subject believes in Nairu,
the subject does not believe in Nairu,
or the subject is the Avatar of Sekham.I'll reveal the actual results of investigations of dead players.What This Means is "I'm not going to say whether a living investigatee is a Believer or a town-aligned power role."

Then what I actually reported for Sachertorte.Night 7 saw me investigate Sachertorte, who also believes in Nairu.I never said Sachertorte had the role of Believer - I said he believed in Nairu. You'll notice that I used the same language for all the other investigatees, even though both Pleonast and CatinaSuit had claimed Town-aligned roles before I made my claim.

I prefer to let power roles do what they will rather than force my ideas on them, so I carefully avoided confirming any power role status - and I'll remind you that this issue was discussed in Day 5 when Zeriel claimed, and at that time no more Monks came forward. So I chose to blur the results of all Town aligned readings into the generic "Ecks believes in Nairu."

With this controversy, I think the town needs the extra piece of information to sort out the argument.

Sachertorte is a Monk.
CatinaSuit is indeed the Disciple.
FlyingCowofDoom is just what he said at the end of Yesterday. A vanilla Believer.
Pleonast came up as a Believer.

What this means is that Sachertorte will be able to tell us truthfully whether DarkCookies is a Monk or not, when he finally gets to this point.

Welcome back from holiday, Sachertorte. Good timing.

(For some bizarre reason I'm unable to preview my post. I hope the hamsters are still working...)

Pleonast
08-19-2007, 09:06 AM
Looks like there's two people we need to hear from: sachertorte and zuma. Do you claim to be a Monk? Who are the other Monks?

MHaye
08-19-2007, 09:41 AM
I mulled this over while eating lunch.

Firstly, I have been assuming since Zeriels roleclaim on Day 5 that there were four Monks.

Last Night, I analysed voting patterns to see if I could spot who might be the fourth Monk, primarily to avoid investigating that person. It turns out that there were two players who had never once voted for any of the three Monks nor had the three Monks voted for them. Those two players were DarkCookies and Idle Thoughts.

Since I knew Sachertorte was a Monk, that inclined me to accept DarkCookies claim.

IT now claims that he is a Monk, and Sachertorte is not. I don't believe this claim. Worse he claimed that zuma2 is a Monk. It is possible that either they are both Cult and this gambit was planned last Night, or IT is Cult and seized on zuma2's PUI to hatch this plan and take me down.

I'm trying to think of reasons why a non-Cult player would have done what IT did. At the moment I can't think of any.

They've already succeeded in learning one thing - who the Monks are. If they haven't yet converted someone, they now know who to avoid. (Unless there's another Monk out there.) That may indeed be the point of the gambit.

[co;or=blue]VoteIdle Thoughts[/color]

MHaye
08-19-2007, 09:43 AM
EBWOP.Vote Idle Thoughts

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-19-2007, 10:03 AM
Well, in lieu of another player claiming Apprentice, I don't see any reason not to believe MHaye. I'm very interested to hear from zuma and IT. And sachertorte.

For now, Vote Idle Thoughts.

--FCOD

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-19-2007, 10:11 AM
Believe me, I want to dunk Idle, but I think we should consider trying to triangulate the Prophet.

Hockey Monkey
08-19-2007, 10:40 AM
I think getting the Prophet is extremely important, however, I don't know if we have the luxury of letting a known cultist live and risking a mis-dunk toDay, then losing another townie toNight. I believe Cookies and Sach are the remaining Monks. In MHaye's claim where he laid out the investigations, he alluded to the fact that he got a pro-town reading on one of them and didn't want to out them. I figured it was Sach.

So, out of who we have left:

Kyrie Eleison - Possible Prophet, probable Cult
Idle Thoughts - Cult
USC Diver
NAF1138
Pygmy Rugger
Queuing - Probable Cult considering his vehemence to the Monks claiming yesterDay
Zuma - Possible Cult - Idle could be trying to trap him

I think we need to dunk our bird in the hand and leave the two in the bush for toMorrow. Unvote Kyrie Eleison, vote Idle Thoughts.

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 11:29 AM
Looking back through the game, if you consider that sachertorte and I are monks, you will see me come as close as I could to defending him on many occasions. You will also may observe general pussy-footing between sachertorte, Zeriel and myself. At least I hope that something will be audible in hindsight for each (or at least some) of the times I got nervous about our relationships being too transparent. My various suspicions about Idle are also sprinkled throughout the game.

Same for Zeriel, zuma I and even Storyteller back in the Day. If you'll recall it was Storyteller that I said I believed regarding the first suspicions of Pleonast that ever came onto my radar.

And later, I talked about how both of the Z's exchange rang true and seemed like town to me.

Earlier, on Day Two or Three, there was a point where Zeriel was showing active suspicion of me, but I assume this was to at least put some distance between ourselves so it wouldn't be apparent to scum who to look for who weren't voting for or even expressing any suspicions of.

Just earlier at the start of this Day in fact, before you came forth with your claim, I tried poking zuma asking what he was seeing that I apparently wasn't, and calling him out on his weird behavior.

I believe Hockey is telling the trough about the no-kill night, and I can at least confirm that Mhaye's claim that sachertorte reads as town is at least accurate. You all have to decide for yourself how you feel about Mhaye otherwise.

Me, I believe him. *shrugs* I don't have any reason not to right now, and with you coming forth and putting sach out with you, I don't think he's a recruit anymore (if there is a recruit at all--and I feel there is, but with your compadre). This is why I hope to hear from zuma again, and hopefully not like he was before in this thread, to hear what he's got to offer.
I think the town should consider persuing Kyrie, because Idle wouldn't be putting both he and zuma's scummy necks out on the line if either of them were the Prophet. All it takes is me or sachertore to die, or sachertorte to return for things to get awfully wet for Idle and zuma. I do not think the Prophet would be risking his or her neck as such.

It doesn't matter. Your days are number


And as for this BS about sachertorte being the Prophet

THIS I believe, actually. Sach seemed all too willing to die via modkill right before he left. This is one of the main reasons I don't feel or think he's the Prophet. It just doesn't ring true. However, again, based on MHaye's research, he investigates as a believer. This leads me to believe that he is, instead, a/the recruit.


With this controversy, I think the town needs the extra piece of information to sort out the argument.

Sachertorte is a Monk.


Whoa whoa whoa whoa....hold ON a minute! She is not! zuma and I are monks. :confused:

Now I'm really starting to question if you're the Apprentice or not. You're saying Sach IS a Monk? And I just went back to the start where the rules are and see that the Monks investigate as Monks.

There's something rotten going on here. I no longer think you're the Apprentice.

I AM A MONK! Seriously. As is zuma.

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 11:32 AM
I mulled this over while eating lunch.

Firstly, I have been assuming since Zeriels roleclaim on Day 5 that there were four Monks.

Last Night, I analysed voting patterns to see if I could spot who might be the fourth Monk, primarily to avoid investigating that person. It turns out that there were two players who had never once voted for any of the three Monks nor had the three Monks voted for them. Those two players were DarkCookies and Idle Thoughts.

Since I knew Sachertorte was a Monk, that inclined me to accept DarkCookies claim.

IT now claims that he is a Monk, and Sachertorte is not. I don't believe this claim. Worse he claimed that zuma2 is a Monk. It is possible that either they are both Cult and this gambit was planned last Night, or IT is Cult and seized on zuma2's PUI to hatch this plan and take me down.

I'm trying to think of reasons why a non-Cult player would have done what IT did. At the moment I can't think of any.

They've already succeeded in learning one thing - who the Monks are. If they haven't yet converted someone, they now know who to avoid. (Unless there's another Monk out there.) That may indeed be the point of the gambit.

[co;or=blue]VoteIdle Thoughts[/color]

YOU are cult. You have to be. You and Cookies and possibly Sach too.

I AM A MONK! I swear to God!

Jesus Christ WHY DOES this happen to ME in every game?! :(

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 11:33 AM
Oh and the irony doesn't escape me. zuma was the one that did it to me last game. :smack:

CatInASuit
08-19-2007, 11:55 AM
Ok, I think we have a problem.

Assuming 5 Cultists:

If the recruit has gone ahead, that would make 6 Cultists, one wrong kill today and a night kill would mean equal cult and town at which point we have lost.

If the recruit has not gone ahead, we get two shots at getting a Cultist before we run out of townies.

If it becomes difficult to seperate the two sets of monks, I would suggest trying to find another cultist and trying to get them dunked instead.

MHaye. I would like to believe you but something just seems wrong. Also why did you investigate Queuing last night?

The main question I have is, If Idle Thoughts is a Cultist, why would he switch his vote from Malacandra to Kat on day 2?

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 12:00 PM
Oh don't stop there, Catina. Further more some seem to think that I'm Cult and Kyrie is the Prophet. IF I were CULT and IF KYRIE is the Prophet, WHY WOULD I do that with Kat? Both him and I were voting for her at the end!

I think you all need to conceed that you're wrong on at least one of those, but most likely both since I KNOW I'M not Cult and I doubt Kyrie would vote for scum being a Prophet. Other scum maybe. I still hold suspicions of him myself and I note he hasn't even BEEN in here to relieve them. But Prophet? I don't know..something stinks about it.


Unvote Cookies
Vote MHaye

This is exactly what happened in Mafia four. WHY WHY WHY is it ALWAYS ME? Am I just easy to pick on?

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 12:01 PM
Ohhhh no, I know that it is. They all like to see my emotional defenses. That's what it is, I bet.

Great.

Pleonast
08-19-2007, 12:12 PM
It's not looking good for you, Idle. Even your alleged co-Monk, zuma has not said anything supporting your claim. No one has counter-claimed MHaye, either. You seem to be suggesting our "real" Apprentice has played mind-bogglingly stupid.

I'd like to hear from sachertorte before deciding who to vote for.

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 12:19 PM
Yeah, well, if you remember in the LAST GAME, I was suggesting that your "real" investigator was a fake too.

I am telling you, I AM A MONK! I SWEAR TO GOD. I SWEAR ON ANYTHING.

WHY would I unvote someone I KNEW to be town and vote for another Cultist? Not even doing that, WHY WOULD I be the vote that mattered? I could have just kept my vote on Mal/Catina and let another town, nay Disciple die. To be fair, though, nobody KNEW she was the Disciple yet, but still. I could have done that and where would we be now? Instead of ONE Cultist caught so far, there would be NONE.

Ohhh, what am I doing trying to convince you for? I was after your head for about half the game. I don't expect you to show any mercy really. : /

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-19-2007, 12:42 PM
The main question I have is, If Idle Thoughts is a Cultist, why would he switch his vote from Malacandra to Kat on day 2?

To build trust.

I also find it interesting that you're leaning toward giving Idle the benefit of the doubt to Idle and casting doubt toward MHaye given the information that is on the table. Granted, we are still in need of hearing what sachertore and zuma have to say, that doesn't make your statements any less interesting to me.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-19-2007, 12:43 PM
:smack: You know what I meant.

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 12:55 PM
Well, the only things I can see it possibly being with all the rules still applying is either:

A. MHaye is NOT who he says he is and is trying to set me up to steer me and everyone else away from you (Cookies) and doing this by claiming Sach is a Monk because all THREE of you are either original scum or two originals and one recruit.

or

B. MHaye is telling the truth, Sach is a Monk, and YOU are not (and were trying to bring down another person when it was found out you were actually Cult--make people think Sach really is/was too)

Those are the only two it can be, really. I mean, is there another way it works out or am I just missing it?

CatInASuit
08-19-2007, 12:56 PM
:smack: You know what I meant.

I know what you mean. :)

What I don't want to do is repeat yesterday's bandwagon dunking of Diggit without trying to look at all the details and answering as many of the questions as possible.

Let's just say I am waiting to see what certain people have to say before I make any full judgement on this.

Admittedly I am waiting for some 24pt type from Idle Thoughts later today. :p

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-19-2007, 12:59 PM
zuma, sachertorte, get in here and clear this up, please.

This would never have happened if the Monks had come forward yesterday when Zeriel was still alive, like I wanted. :rolleyes:

--FCOD

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 01:09 PM
Yeah, zuma, where are you anyway? I could use a little support here.

I'm not too keen on Sach straightening it out. I still feel that he, if anything was recruited. Either that or MHaye was on a lucky shot and sach was scum all long and now he's (MHaye) just saying he (Sach) is a Monk to steer me and everyone away from the three of them.


Thing is...this game will be just about over anyway. Because whether everyone kills one of them three or me first just to find out I was TELLING THE TRUTH ALL LONG, everything will be found out.

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 01:11 PM
zuma, sachertorte, get in here and clear this up, please.

This would never have happened if the Monks had come forward yesterday when Zeriel was still alive, like I wanted. :rolleyes:

--FCOD

Don't you see, though? THIS IS WHAT THEY WANTED. To kill off Zeriel and set this up. AND ON ME OF ALL PEOPLE.

I bet they had a good ol' time on their boards or group talking about "Hey, let's make Idle get all defensive over another set up!" :rolleyes: :dubious:

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-19-2007, 01:14 PM
zuma, sachertorte, get in here and clear this up, please.

This would never have happened if the Monks had come forward yesterday when Zeriel was still alive, like I wanted. :rolleyes:

--FCOD

Feel free to lay into me over Forbidden Nacho Surprise. What is done is done, and I still think we have a shot. But not if we're rolling our eyes anywhere but around the pool of potential scum.

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 01:18 PM
Thing is, I had a sense this would happen, which is why I waited and bided my time. I probably wouldn't have come out toDay either if Cookies hadn't, but the chance to get more Cult when so far there's only been ONE found was too great. One and a potential two, I thought at the time. Now it seems a potential THREE!

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-19-2007, 01:27 PM
Here's a proposal. Chose for yourselves what you think of it.

I'll go toe-to-toe with Idle and zuma right now. People choose if they believe everything that I include in my claim: that I and sachertorte are monks, or if they do not believe it.

Vote me or Idle Thoughts accordingly (paying heed to not cause any countdowns, as we need this day to last as long as possible).

Sachertorte - I would stay silent and read as much as you possibly can...5 times over...and deliver at least one of the following, leaving enough time for at least some discussion afterwards:

-Confirmation/denial of my claim
-A vote and/or a campaign against the Prophet

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-19-2007, 01:35 PM
And I just have to say, tongue in cheek, that these Cult Scum are some cocky motherf*ckers to try and pull off a PUI exploit (whether it was authentic or not, it was exploited) AND an emo-flame out...seriously. :p

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 01:41 PM
Sachertorte - I would stay silent and read as much as you possibly can...5 times over...and deliver at least one of the following, leaving enough time for at least some discussion afterwards:

-Confirmation/denial of my claim
-A vote and/or a campaign against the Prophet

Snipped.

Now see, this here looks like scum trying to secretly communicate strategy to other scum during Day.

TO ME, at least, this just reads like a "Sach, read everything over closely and then decide if you want to say you're a Monk too and therefore give my case some creedence (however we'll both go down together, as you know) or if you'd rather distance yourself from me and pretend you don't know what's going on and leave me to take the hit alone; either way, I'm fine with it."

Is NOBODY else seeing this?

CatInASuit
08-19-2007, 01:54 PM
Right,

I am going to apologise for playing Devil's Advocate to both sides and being generally really, really paranoid and assume the worst about both groups.

Idle T. If you really are a Monk, I want cites from previous posts which could intimate that you are what you claim and further proof that Cookies and sachertorte are Cultists.

Cookies: Its a good idea but with one flaw.
<extreme paranoia mode>
If Idle T is right, MHaye has been recruited and you are lying, then killing Idle T today will probably lose us the game after tonight's kill.
</extreme paranoia mode>

I would propose something extra, unless something conclusive comes up and I don't mean MHaye's call. Sorry MHaye, after Diggit I would like something else as well.

I think the town should be looking for other any other Cultists and not just concentrate on sorting out which set of Monks are actually Monks.

So a question for the rest of the town, other than the current possible monks who do you think are the possible other Cultists??

Santo Rugger
08-19-2007, 02:01 PM
Catina, can you tell us who was protected on the no-kill night? That may help us sort this whole mess out. If it was MHaye, then we can be pretty sure he's telling the truth. If not... I dunno...

sachertorte
08-19-2007, 02:42 PM
Because, see, she is not a monk. I should know because I'm a monk and zuma is the third one. From the beginning there were four of us: storyteller, Zeriel, zuma, and myself.

This was truly baffling. Why would Idle Thoughts, who had garnered so much trust in the dunking of Kat, false roleclaim monk? I was very confused until I read this:

Ok, I think we have a problem.

Assuming 5 Cultists:

If the recruit has gone ahead, that would make 6 Cultists, one wrong kill today and a night kill would mean equal cult and town at which point we have lost.
Which makes the most sense. I know the game as been going for quite a while, but are we really at a "lynch-or-lose" situation? Honesty, if we are (and we've been terrible at dunking scum) then a Night 'whatever' no-kill being a recruitment makes actual sense as it brings the game closer to finality (can someone check this for me, does recruitment move the game closer to a scum win than a straightforward kill?)

Mafia V had four Monks:
storyteller
Zeriel
Cookies
and sachertorte
(Who would have thought that I'd be the last Monk to roleclaim. During and after Day One I was certain that I'd be first.)

Idle thoughts is lying and therefore is scum. But I don't think Idle Thoughts is so stupid. Scum knows how many mis-directed kills town has until losing the game. The numbers are in scum's favor at this time, and I doubt Idle Thoughts would 'give' us himself and zuma so freely. Clearly Idle Thoughts is scum, but I doubt zuma is.

Originally, I was going to suggest not dunking Idle Thoughts and leaving him alive as nighttime fodder for the Alchemist to target. However, if the numbers indicate we are at our last chance at getting scum, then the idea is quite... well risky. But here is my thinking. If we are at 'lynch-or-lose' then the only event that can get us away from this state are nighttime blocks. The Alchemist is one way we can create a night time block. Now that we have a confirmed scum (at least confirmed to me, and hopefully the rest of the town sees it that way as well) we can use this opportunity to use the Alchemist to try and create a nightkill block. It's risky, but my feeling is if we dunk Idle Thoughts today, then we're right back to trying to find scum tomorrow at a lynch-or-lose situation. Also, as we catch more scum the Alchemist's block percentages become stronger in the town's favor. Mitigating factors of course include the presence of the Apprentice. It may be worth dunking a sure-thing Idle Thoughts to extend the game so that the Apprentice can do one more investigation. I'm not convinced this is the best course of action because the Apprentice may not survive the night anyway, and tomorrow we would be faced with similar difficulties.

Idle Thoughts's play along with Kat was very convincing. But why Idle Thoughts? Why not some other scum? Furthermore, why is Idle Thoughts playing with fire right now? Why not some other scum? Was Idle Thoughts coming under fire? I don't recall so. So who IS under fire. Who is Idle Thoughts drawing fire from?

Anyway. I'm a Monk. Cookies is a Monk too.

I need the town to do a quick poll on who you believe more: Me or Idle Thoughts? If we need to dig up "proof" I can do so, I just don't want to bother if Idle Thoughts is already talking to a wall.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-19-2007, 02:56 PM
My vote stands on Idle Thoughts. Sorry Idle, but sachertorte, Cookies, and MHaye are all in agreement, and I have to believe that MHaye is the Apprentice at this point.

--FCOD

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 03:17 PM
Here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8723065&postcount=483) is where I first start dropping crumbs that may be useful later in knowing who the Monks are. I agree with story on a point I thought he had brought up against Pleonast. Later, I found out, I had accidently read story's post (which was actually agreeing to Queuing about Pleo being shady looking) as the one to bring up the suspicions about Pleonast. But either way, I had thought, at the time, it was Story who outlined it all and was more than willing to take his insight on things.

It also seemed to me that Sach around that time, was obsessed with discussing the Apprentice role. Something I and others felt he was starting to look shady over. Now that I know what all that might be potential, could it be that he's IS the Prophet and knew he had this out? When did Sach leave anyway? Was it before the NO kill or not? He has volunteered to be modkilled, something I can't see the Prophet doing if they still had a chance to convert. Was that before or after the NoKill Night? I'll look into that as I go along.

Next we have this post here (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8820880&postcount=2301) by me that is really long. Take note of this:

The whole constant NAF, Kyrie, Queuing exhanges also gave me a townie feel

Now I know I said Queuing, but I MEANT Zeriel, something I corrected later.

PLEASE NOTE HERE (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8821203&postcount=2308), however, how puzzled Zeriel is. This is because he should have KNOWN I meant him but didn't want to just come outright and say it. He was probably as wondering as Queuing was why I was mistaking one for the other.

I then made the correction here. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8821553&postcount=2310)

But let's go back again, in the really long post, of zuma I say this:

zuma, on the other hand, while posting and voting, is a big question mark to me and could go either way, really, although unlike Hazel and Fretful I don't feel he's town. That being said I don't feel he's scum either..so I really don't know what to think.

In any case, I don't feel be voting for either of them toDay.

Like I feel Zeriel was doing here against me (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8764647&postcount=1369), this was a ploy to hopefully put some distance between us so that if ONE of us was found, we ALL wouldn't be found.

As for Cookies, she has consistantly done shady things. Voting TWICE for Hockey even after she claimed Alchemist alone was enough to make me look at her sideways. But added to that, making FCoD and I look shady just based on not giving reasons for voting for someone when I, at least, had many, many times before that.

And added TO THAT, just being a player who seems to have trying to stay off the radar since the beginning of the game.


Only now. Claiming to be a Monk. That removes all doubt to me. Boy do I wish you were me, so you'd know what I knew beyond the shadow of a doubt.

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 03:21 PM
Fine.

Kill me. Kill me right now then. At least it will give us three Cultists in a row anyway. Before, in game Four it was one for one, and I wasn't ready to go down without a fight then. But in this case, it would truly worth it.

Go on and vote for me. :)

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 03:22 PM
Note to the above. I just read Sach's post and it seems that either she or Mhaye was the converted one. I really wish it wouldn't take YET another town death just to find this out, but so be it.

Vote for me.

Yes, I want you to.

CatInASuit
08-19-2007, 03:35 PM
I'm going to go and sleep on this.

sachertorte, any proof you have is useful.

Being honest, I had you as my second Cultist person, so most of my ideas are out of the window if you are a Monk. :(

It is definitely getting too close to the cut off mark for us to get this wrong though.

Idle Thoughts: stop asking to be martyred and go and find some proof or you will wind up losing the game for the town if you are right. If you want it in a bigger font, I can do that as well.

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 03:39 PM
The only thing I have left to offer is this.


The Night that had the no kill started at this post. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8846531&postcount=2602)

Sach was still around and even posting one post before that one (go on, look for yourself), and he says this:

This will be my final post before my vacation.

I do like the spotlight shifted towards MHayeand would support an MHaye dunking, if I were around to enact it.
I would also support a FlyingCowOfDoom dunking as the voting logic of Today was, in my opinion, bizarre. As stated earlier, MadTheSwine made a very good excuse for a scum lynching of town without getting dirty. If anything, look at people who dunked MadTheSwine and no one else (but I find that weak too).

Anyway, the Day is ending so I'll post now.

So therefore, even with the "modkill me" plea that would have started the next Day without him, if he were the Prophet, Cult STILL might have been able to recruit that Night. (Hence the NoKill).

Just all reeks to high heaven when you are seeing it all there like I am.

But no matter..vote for me.

Santo Rugger
08-19-2007, 03:43 PM
<snip>
But no matter..vote for me.

If it'll make you SHUT UP for a while... Vote Idle Thoughts.

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 03:44 PM
Idle Thoughts: stop asking to be martyred and go and find some proof or you will wind up losing the game for the town if you are right. If you want it in a bigger font, I can do that as well.

What do you want from me? :( I offered all the proof I had. Go read my three posts in a row before yours and the one after. I don't know what else to tell you or say. This happened in M4 too and nothing I said or offered made any difference THAT time either. It was only on a whim that people discovered I was innocent. At least in this case it will get you all three Cult and not just one.

It's just....man. I saved your life. Well not yours but your role. Doesn't that mean ANYTHING? Can't you just give me the benefit of the doubt ONE time? I know what I know and that is I'm a Monk and I'm not scum. All you and others have to do is kill ONE of those three (Hell, why not sach? He wanted to be anyway, remember?) and you'll find out the truth. Do you have any idea how FRUSTRATING it is when you're set up this way? Not just once but twice! Geez, man.

I'm pleading with you, trust me. On your life/role, I am not a Cult member. I saved you once. You probably won't be able to save me. But at least have the faith in me? I don't THINK that's asking much. I doubt anyone else in here will. : /

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 03:46 PM
If it'll make you SHUT UP for a while... Vote Idle Thoughts.

Oh, sorry. So sorry I just don't like laying down and GIVING UP.

Santo Rugger
08-19-2007, 03:56 PM
<snip>
I bet they had a good ol' time on their boards or group talking about "Hey, let's make Idle get all defensive over another set up!" :rolleyes: :dubious:

If you can answer this one, I'll remove their vote:

How the hell would they plan to set YOU up, if none of US knew who the MONKS were?

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 04:05 PM
Well, for one, that was me being sarcastic. I have no idea if that exchange was said or not, but what does that matter? Does it matter if they set up someone they know to be town as opposed to someone they think might have a role?

Seems to me it wouldn't to them. Think like scum for a minute, if you, in fact, REALLY ARE town (and really, this goes to everyone who really is town). They know who is who. True they don't know who is WHAT but this late in the game, seems to me they're going to be hitting roles more often then not with the amount of players left. Me, I had the luck of being a Monk, so when they decide to false claim as those and get help from the "Apprentice" it all sets up the real Monks who are helpless.

Real clever, I must say. Really freaking ingenious. Seems to have worked.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-19-2007, 04:09 PM
If you can answer this one, I'll remove their vote:

How the hell would they plan to set YOU up, if none of US knew who the MONKS were?I think that can be explained as a mistake due to extreme paranoia (of which IT seems to suffer ;) ).

Anyway, here's a wild idea: what if MHaye is the Apprentice, and was converted? That would fit in with all of his investigation results. The main reason I was compelled to believe MHaye's claim is that he would have been lucky to guess that both sachertorte and I were on the side of the Believers. However, if he was converted after investigating me, he wouldn't have to guess at all. In fact, he could finger sachertorte as a Believer and everyone would believe him. There would be no counter-claim, as he truly was the Apprentice. And after coming out, his investigation turned up nothing. True, there's a 50/50 chance of that happening anyway, but it seems to fit. Unvote Idle Thoughts.

Therefore, I will change my vote to sachertorte. If he comes up Town, I will suggest we kill IT and zuma. If he's not a Believer, I suggest we kill MHaye and Cookies.

--FCOD

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 04:25 PM
Trying to think of any or other proof that would help SHOW you all I'm really what I say I am.

What about when I unvoted Mad at the last minute? Please! EVERYONE was voting for him. IF I were really scum, why would I unvote him and have a lot of crap against me the next Day (something Pleonast even hit upon the next Day, in fact)? Look at my reply. I WAS being selfish because I knew what I was. I didn't want to take the chance that Mad was either a town with some sort of secret power role (at that time Pleo had NOT YET claimed) that could maybe kill like the Avatar could... At least with the Avatar, you don't know and tend not to care since you forget about it. Mad at the time, seemingly wanted to be killed though. That raised all MY alarms, at least. Wanting to be killed? I wasn't going to take the chance since I have a power role. :rolleyes:


And on preview:

Unvote MHaye
Vote Sach

Although it really doesn't matter to me if MHaye dies either because he's lying through his teeth too. Maybe he IS the Apprentice..or was, rather.. but yeah, he's definitly not anymore whatever the case is. However I understand people not wanting to vote for him regardless. Trust me, if Sach doesn't come up scum, I'll be first in line for a lynch tomorrow with an apple in my mouth and so will zuma I'm sure. But I AM REALLY WHAT I SAY I AM. I SWEAR it.

By the way, his nonappearence is really starting to worry me.


OH, another one I just remembered. Back when I was accusing Diggit of not correcting amrussell on mixing him and zuma up.

OBVIOUSLY I'd be the one to correct this and notice it first. Because I was most suspicions of Diggit at that point yet zuma I knew the alignence of. This also explains why I kept finding it weird that Diggit didn't correct him even though he (Diggit) was saying to me "Why aren't you suspicious of zuma for doing the same thing?"

Luckily I didn't have to make up a reason rather than say "because I know zuma isn't scum" because zuma himself pointed it out that he (zuma) hadn't posted until I HAD ALREADY CORRECTED amrussell, whereas diggit had posted a few times IN BETWEEN the mistake and my correction. Thank God because I hadn't seen that (as referenced in a post of mine on that Day) and might have looked weird not having a good reason why I wasn't accusing zuma too.

Links to all of these posts on request, although right now my comp is running slow (which is why I didn't include them in the first place).

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-19-2007, 04:42 PM
I think that can be explained as a mistake due to extreme paranoia (of which IT seems to suffer ;) ).

Anyway, here's a wild idea: what if MHaye is the Apprentice, and was converted? That would fit in with all of his investigation results. The main reason I was compelled to believe MHaye's claim is that he would have been lucky to guess that both sachertorte and I were on the side of the Believers. However, if he was converted after investigating me, he wouldn't have to guess at all. In fact, he could finger sachertorte as a Believer and everyone would believe him. There would be no counter-claim, as he truly was the Apprentice. And after coming out, his investigation turned up nothing. True, there's a 50/50 chance of that happening anyway, but it seems to fit. Unvote Idle Thoughts.

Therefore, I will change my vote to sachertorte. If he comes up Town, I will suggest we kill IT and zuma. If he's not a Believer, I suggest we kill MHaye and Cookies.

--FCOD

You're seriously going to throw this out without seeing what zuma has to say?

Queuing
08-19-2007, 06:01 PM
Well crazy shit.

I see no reason to put a vote down until Zuma comes in and clarifies the situation from his point of view.

USCDiver
08-19-2007, 06:19 PM
I see no reason to put a vote down until Zuma comes in and clarifies the situation from his point of view.

Agreed. zuma where are you?!

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-19-2007, 06:36 PM
You're seriously going to throw this out without seeing what zuma has to say?I already know that zuma is going to say that he and Idle Thoughts are Monks. Idle would be stupid to say zuma was a fellow Monk unless they were both Monks or both Scum. Either way, they're going to agree.

We have two "blocks": Idle Thoughts/zuma and sachertorte/Cookies/MHaye. I initially believed the latter because of MHaye...he would have had to be very lucky to guess that I was a Believer, and if he guessed wrong he would be exposed. However, now that I realize that MHaye could have been converted, it makes more sense to me that Idle Thoughts is telling the truth. I think if the Cult was planning to fake claim Monks, they'd be the first to claim. I don't think they'd try to pull off such a plan from a counter-claim. Therefore, I'm voting for sachertorte, although I'd be just as fine with a Cookies lynch.

--FCOD

NAF1138
08-19-2007, 07:18 PM
WTF??

Ok, so a lot seems to have happened since I last checked the game. I don't have time to post my thoughts until Monday.

But I think I will have lots of them.

There is no end to the weirdness that is this game.

USCDiver
08-19-2007, 09:19 PM
I want to see what zuma has to say about his drunken comments too

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 09:52 PM
Me more than anyone because from his comments he seemed like he didn't trust MHaye for some reason and I really want to know why now.

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-19-2007, 10:15 PM
Me more than anyone because from his comments he seemed like he didn't trust MHaye for some reason and I really want to know why now.

Tit for tat and all of that. This is my counter-example of attempting to communicate with scum outloud.

Hockey Monkey
08-19-2007, 10:23 PM
I've been pondering this all day. Here is a scenario I can see playing out with this gambit. See if you can follow my line of logic here.

Zuma makes a PUI smudging MHaye.

Cookies claims for Sach and herself Monk status.

Idle Thoughts counterclaims that he and Zuma are the Monks.

MHaye states that is investigation of Sach was Monk.

Sach confirms he is a Monk.

Zuma is nowhere to be found right now.

My theory is that MHaye was converted, and Idle and Zuma know this as they are Cult. They are trying to get MHaye dunked and his status of Converted Apprentice revealed. The Cult gets another night kill, then we townies having faith that Idle and Zuma are the real Monks dunk Sach or Cookies. A real Monk is revealed and we all go oops. There is another townie kill during the night before we can dunk Idle or Zuma.

I can think of a good reason the Cult were able to pinpoint the Priest. MHaye was converted and he told them who it was. Anyone else think this theory has merit? Am I completely off-base? I'm really interested in what Zuma will say when he gets in here.

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 10:32 PM
Tit for tat and all of that. This is my counter-example of attempting to communicate with scum outloud.

How so? :confused: MHaye has all of seemingly sealed my doom with the help of you and sach. zuma seemed to know or feel or see SOMETHING that made him feel MHaye was also a shady character. Mind you this was BEFORE your and my counter-claim. I don't see how it's shady to wonder what it was he knew or felt, especially when it's MY possible neck on the block.

Yours, however, read plainly "read over everything carefully and then decide if you want to claim with me or reject it".

USCDiver
08-19-2007, 10:33 PM
I can think of a good reason the Cult were able to pinpoint the Priest. MHaye was converted and he told them who it was. Anyone else think this theory has merit? Am I completely off-base? I'm really interested in what Zuma will say when he gets in here.

How is this any more plausible than to think that MHaye was recruited and he, sachertorte and Cookies are trying to sow enough confusion amongst the town to lead us to lynch another townie? We've already discussed that we could be in a lynch-or-die scenario today; if they can get enough folk to vote for a true Monk then they can swoop in and seal the deal with the whole of the Cultists voting for the same person.

Idle Thoughts
08-19-2007, 10:40 PM
I've been pondering this all day. Here is a scenario I can see playing out with this gambit. See if you can follow my line of logic here.

Zuma makes a PUI smudging MHaye.

Cookies claims for Sach and herself Monk status.

Idle Thoughts counterclaims that he and Zuma are the Monks.

MHaye states that is investigation of Sach was Monk.

Sach confirms he is a Monk.

Zuma is nowhere to be found right now.

My theory is that MHaye was converted, and Idle and Zuma know this as they are Cult. They are trying to get MHaye dunked and his status of Converted Apprentice revealed. The Cult gets another night kill, then we townies having faith that Idle and Zuma are the real Monks dunk Sach or Cookies. A real Monk is revealed and we all go oops. There is another townie kill during the night before we can dunk Idle or Zuma.

I can think of a good reason the Cult were able to pinpoint the Priest. MHaye was converted and he told them who it was. Anyone else think this theory has merit? Am I completely off-base? I'm really interested in what Zuma will say when he gets in here.

Yanno, that's all well and good that you're figuring it might be that but there's one big hole in that theory.

IF it's like that (what you typed) and all of that applies (I.E. I am "scum") why wouldn't the converted MHaye just, from the start, say zuma and I were Monks so it would look like sach and cookies making a counterclaim were the ones probably not telling the truth?

Then, of course, there's the BIG, GAPING hole that only I know.
How else can I put it.

I AM A MONK. Mhaye is LYING! WHY, I don't know. WHY the two claiming to be what they're not, I don't know. What made them think it would work, I. Don't. Know. All I KNOW, though, is that they are NOT the Monks. I would bet everything I own on it.

Geez, Hockey. Haven't you SEEN this before? Doens't this seem at all familiar to you? It does to me, and painfully so. Irritatingly so. Well, not so much irritating as just frustrating to know that the only way you can be confirmed is by your own death. Which almost happened to me before.

*sighs*

USCDiver
08-19-2007, 10:41 PM
An update before I post my thoughts...

Unofficial Vote Count:

Idle Thoughts(3) - MHaye, Hockey Monkey, Pygmy Rugger
sachertorte(2) - FlyingCowOfDoom, Idle Thoughts

USCDiver
08-19-2007, 11:50 PM
Here's how I currently think things have gone down over the last 3 Days.

Day 6 - fluiddruid is killed. Voted for by 2-3 players I suspect of being cultists. Also this is the day that sachertorte announces he is leaving for vacation (last post is 8/3, expects to be gone 14 days).

Night 6 - No Kill. I am more and more convinced that MHaye was succesfully recruited this night. He is unable to communicate directly with his new friends, but he can read their board at his leisure.

Day 7 - amrussell, a poor non-believer who turned up to be the Psychopath is day killed. MHaye casts a relatively safe vote (again) on sachertorte who he now knows to be a Cultist and it out of town so won't attract much attention from other players.

Night 7 - MHaye's first chance to share his information with the Cult. The Priest is subsequently killed. Also the plan is hatched for the Apprentice to role claim the next day if he begins to get heat. He had already gotten some attention in the past and it seemed to escalate some the previous Day.

Day 8 - MHaye gets into some trouble early on. He role claims and lists his readings. Interestingly he claims he investigated sachertorte on Night 7, even though sach is gone and has not been around, so why investigate him instead of someone who is claiming a power role? He states that sach 'believes in Nairu'. MHaye also lists his 'before Oracle death' readings which are less reliable and gives away Diggit2 as 'does not believe', subsequently leading to his demise. MHaye is safe though because he can say 'oh well, false reading'.

Night 8 - Having set the stage for a lynch-or-die situation, they next formulate their plan to exterminate the Monks by confusing the hell out of the town and hopefully land a True Monk in the drink the next day. The plan hinges on there being two Cultists who claim False Monk and only one True Monk left with no one to confirm his counter claim. So they go after the one known Monk, Zeriel. I think at this point the Cultists believe there to be only one Monk remaining (after Zeriel). Now, with the possibility of there being two remaining True Monks, they have a monkeywrench thrown into their machinations and we have a chance to capitalize

A few questions remain.
How can such a plan have been devised without sachertorte around to help in the planning?

Well sachertorte is a man of numbers. When sachertorte says he's going to be gone for 2 weeks, he means 2 weeks. This means he would have returned from Vacation on the 17th. Just in time to catch up with his brethren and confirm the plan to pose as Monks. His first post back in the main thread is on the 19th.

Also, why would MHaye give a 'Believer' reading on sachertorte if he now knows him to be Cult?

Two possibilities: he's relying on the trust he's engendered and sachertorte's absence to carry long enough that it will be too late if he is found out. Or he knows sachertorte to be the Prophet and would therefore investigate as 'Believer'. I'm more inclined to believe the former as it would be too dangerous for the Prophet to participate in the Monk ruse.

This begs the question, why use sachertorte in the ruse at all? Could be that the cultists aren't very many in number. Could be that MHaye did in fact investigate another of his new friends and found the Avatar among them and they have no further options.

Where does this lead us? I believe there are 5 Cultists remaining:
MHaye(recruited Apprentice)
sachertorte (claimed Monk)
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (claimed Monk)
The Avatar
The Prophet.

I believe Pygmy Rugger is either the Avatar or the Prophet.
The final Cultist remains hidden, but I believe it to be either Kyrie Eleison or NAF1138 with Queuing coming in a distant third.

Right now my vote goes to sachertorte which by my count brings him even with Idle Thoughts

Kyrie Eleison
08-20-2007, 12:53 AM
Wow. Just wow.

I confess that I had been somewhat ignoring this thread over the weekend, as I expected this day would get off to a slow start, much as previous days did. That would seem not to be the case.

There's something about this situation that just doesn't make sense to me. But I'm loathe to say more until zuma chimes in.

I will say this though, since it does directly touch on the matter at hand: I thought sachertorte was the Apprentice until he announced his vacation. Way back when, when sachertorte proposed to divide the town into two camps for the Oracle and Apprentice, he included himself in the group that he originally proposed be investigated by the Oracle. I thought that this was tantamount to asking the Oracle to investigate him. It seemed to me that lacking any additional knowledge, he should have taken care to make sure that he himself, if he were not the Apprentice, was in the Apprentice's group.

More importantly at the moment though, as additional evidence, this post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8811818&postcount=2128) rang my bell quite a bit:


{sachertorte's conclusion: Zeriel is not scum.

I thought that was a rather bold breadcrumb, but I'm now inclined to believe that I saw support for fellow monks as evidence of knowledge from investigation.

CatInASuit
08-20-2007, 02:59 AM
This really is getting wierd now.

Ok. first off, Idle Thoughts, thanks for taking the time to actually show your breadcrumbs as proof you are a Monk.

Cookies, sachertorte: I am definitely looking for the same from you.

Unfortunately, sachertorte saying "Zeriel is not scum" could also come from the point that sachertorte is scum and knows that Zeriel is not.

Confusing isn't it. :confused:

Judging by numbers, the town's actual safest option for the town is (unfairly for some) to dunk sachertorte.

1. If MHaye has been converted, I reckon there are 6 Cultists around and a day + night kill = game over.

2. If Mhaye is right and there has been no recuit, there are 5 cultists and we can afford the hit.

Also this line of questioning is not going to go too far unless zuma pops up again.

Until that happens, I will be looking for the other cultists, instead of trying to work out which of the two sets of people are right.

One last question: WTF is a PUI????

(Post under influence :smack: Now I get it.)

sachertorte
08-20-2007, 10:17 AM
(Ack! I posted something this morning before going to work, but it's not here. I will recreate)

I would like to caution the town from being duped by Idle Thoughts intriguing offer of having discovered three scum (Me, Cookies and MHaye). three scum just like that, sound too good to be true? It is.

Also Idle Thoughts's Theory requires quite a bit of faith that certain events occurred. First, it requires that MHaye is the Apprentice and was recruited. What is the probability that scum recruited MHaye? Did they know MHaye was the Apprentice? If so, how? Were they just lucky? Perhaps.
But Idle Thoughts's Theory also requires that I be scum, and that I must have been scum from the very beginning since scum can't have recruited both MHaye and me. But what about Hal, The Oracle, and possible breadcrumbs? This theory requires believing that Hal did not investigate me and dropped a possible breadcrumb about someone he knew nothing about. What about the prophet? This makes a touch more sense, but look at my history. I was nearly dunked on the first day. Are my actions on Day One consistent with the actions of a prophet?
Idle Thought's Theory requires too much to be believed. Scum had to have recruited the Apprentice and Hal had to have breadcrumbed someone he didn't investigate, or the prophet has to be me. Too complex.

For Idle Thoughts to be scum, he just has to be scum. No twisting of events, or resolving who was recruited or figuring out Hal's breadcrumbs, or figuring out who the prophet is. Idle Thoughts is scum caught in a counter-claim. Caught with the mistake that MHaye knew more than just "sachertorte is a believer," but that investigations reveal power roles as well. It reasons out on its own simply and cleanly.

Also, we have zuma, who from my perspective was about to denounce MHaye as the Apprentice. How can zuma counter-claim MHaye and be a Monk? Idle Thoughts's Theory is full of holes.

Stuff that I recall regarind monk interactions:
- storyteller saying he was going to vote for either Mtgman or me, and finally voting for Mtgman (which I think surprised a few people, but not me :D ).
- my reactions to storyteller's differing viewpoint on game analysis were very guarded and non-confrontational.
- During Day One when I was up for dunking, Zeriel and Cookies did quite a bit of vote hopping in what appeared to me as attempts to keep me alive.
- When Hal died and there was the hunt for breadcrumbs I tried to look like a regular believer by stating something to the effect of Hal might not have left any breadcrumbs since he wouldn't even need to breadcrumb powerroles since powerroles can roleclaim. I used storyteller as an example. In truth, I had already seen Hal's breadcrumb of me. I was attempting to subtly imply to scum that I was vanilla believer, to induce recruitment.
- I recall voting for ScubaBen instead of HockeyMonkey (who I was more suspicious of at the time) because Zeriel and Cookies had already voted for HockeyMonkey.
- I thought Zeriel pretty much outed me as a Monk when he was arguing with NAF and backed off because 'people he trusts' were saying NAF didn't look so scummy anymore.
- Kyrie already caught my being overzealous in defending Zeriel. At the time I honestly thought the Mtgman's analysis of ArizonaTeach was so spot on that I could convince the town that Zeriel was town without being obvious. After posting I saw I was too blunt. That plus Zeriel's statements about NAF and subsequent roleclaim had me convinced that scum knew I was a Monk.

NAF1138
08-20-2007, 10:23 AM
This really is getting wierd now.

Ok. first off, Idle Thoughts, thanks for taking the time to actually show your breadcrumbs as proof you are a Monk.

Cookies, sachertorte: I am definitely looking for the same from you.

Unfortunately, sachertorte saying "Zeriel is not scum" could also come from the point that sachertorte is scum and knows that Zeriel is not.

Confusing isn't it. :confused:

Judging by numbers, the town's actual safest option for the town is (unfairly for some) to dunk sachertorte.

1. If MHaye has been converted, I reckon there are 6 Cultists around and a day + night kill = game over.

2. If Mhaye is right and there has been no recuit, there are 5 cultists and we can afford the hit.

Also this line of questioning is not going to go too far unless zuma pops up again.

Until that happens, I will be looking for the other cultists, instead of trying to work out which of the two sets of people are right.

One last question: WTF is a PUI????

(Post under influence :smack: Now I get it.)

OK, I am still trying to sort out what the hell is going on, but Catina, I am not following your argument here, would you mind restating? IF there is a "safe" play, I would like to know it. The way I am looking at things we have to dunk one of 5 people toDay to get any sort of clarity, and we probably have to dunk MHaye eventually to find out if we can trust his information. (Sorry MHaye, but the chance that you were recruited is high no matter which side comes out as the real monks).

I don't know where I am putting my vote yet, but I want to be as sure as possible that we are on the right track before we do.

Also, have we taken the avatar contingency into account? Is it time to have all of us place a vote and have (who was it who volunteered?) be the only voter? We know we are going to catch at least two scum in the next 3 Days, and the chances of one scum being the Avatar are good (especially since I can't see there being more than 2 scum and a profit left if the game is going to be balanced, I know these are not the accepted numbers but I can't believe that Blaster would balance the game in such a way that we could hit a lynch or lose situation with this many people still alive)

Queuing
08-20-2007, 10:45 AM
2 questions:

How much time is left in the Day?

Where is Zuma?

MHaye
08-20-2007, 10:50 AM
2 questions:

How much time is left in the Day?11:15pm EDT on Tuesday, according to BlaM's sig.

Where is Zuma?Pass. I saw him online about 2Ĺ-3 hours back but then had to go out.

NAF1138
08-20-2007, 10:51 AM
How much time is left in the Day?



Dusk is at 11:15 pm eastern Tuesday if I remember right. So we have a little over 36 hours.

What is the official vote cound BlaM?

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
08-20-2007, 10:58 AM
It is going to take me some time to dig up all of the references where evidence of monk-monk interaction might be seen.

I purposefully did not direct anyone to them because I hoped they would be more compelling if some of you found them on your own. I still feel that way, but we're running out of time and there are certainly enough of you who appear willing to swallow the rusty hook that Idle is waving so frantically below your nose.

While I'm at it, I will also be drawing your attention to how all-over-the-place Idle has been with his posts toDay. You don't have to wait for me though, I _really_ encourage you to look at what he's been saying and how he's been saying it. As sarchertorte stated above, Idle is working it so hard because it takes a lot of work to pull off such an elaborate con with only one "public" face.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-20-2007, 11:03 AM
I'm thinking that it's better to lynch sachertorte. If IT/zuma are telling the truth, sachertorte/Cookies/MHaye are Cultists (a conversion occurred), and we may lose if we dunk a Townie. If sachertorte/Cookies/MHaye are telling the truth, the conversion likely did not happen, meaning we have a better chance if we dunk a Townie. Does this make sense?

So, unless I see some convincing evidence either way, I think it's safer to dunk sachertorte.

--FCOD

CatInASuit
08-20-2007, 11:03 AM
OK,

Given there were 30 players to begin with, I would have expected 5-6 Cultists.

Worse case scenario is that we have 5 cultists left. Also they may or may not have recruited.

A few possibilites spring to mind

Assume we dunk sachertorte.

1. They have not recruited, and MHaye is truthful. We dunk one town and lose another overnight leaving 12 players, that would leave 5 cult and 7 townies with definite ID on Idle Thoughts and zuma v.2

2. They have not recruited, and MHaye is lying (ie. MHaye is not the real Apprentice). We dunk one scum and lose a townie overnight leaving 12 players, that would leave 4 cult and 8 townies with dunks on Cookies and MHaye.

3. The have recruited and MHaye is lying, ie. MHaye the Apprentice has been recruited (only reason for his lying). We dunk one scum and lose one town overnight leaving 5 scum and 7 townies and with definite dunks on Cookies and MHaye.

4. They have recruited someone else (eg. Hockey Monkey for the sake of the example) and MHaye is truthful, We dunk one town and lose another overnight leaving 6 cult and 6 town. Game Over.


If anyone can come up with some other scenarios - all details would be useful.
I will repeat the same above with the assumption we dunk Idle Thoughts in a mo.

All of this is a bit speculative until zuma gets here.

In terms of the Avatar, at this point I think we have to pick someone and everyone in the town has to pile on in the hopes it it is the Avatar and will take out a Cultist instead.

Don't forget the Cult do not know who the Avatar is and will also want to be very wary of being in a Cultist dunk party, otherwise they could be struck down as well.

zuma: You have some explaining to do, I hope the coffee helps.

CatInASuit
08-20-2007, 11:11 AM
Same details as above but assuming we dunk Idle Thoughts.

1. They have not recruited, and MHaye is truthful. We dunk one cult and lose a town overnight leaving 12 players, that would leave 4 cult and 8 townies with definite ID on zuma v.2

2. They have not recruited, and MHaye is lying (ie. MHaye is not the real Apprentice). We dunk one town and lose a town overnight leaving 12 players, that would leave 5 cult and 7 townies, but with a definite ID on Cookies, MHaye and sachertorte.

3. The have recruited and MHaye is lying, ie. MHaye the Apprentice has been recruited (only reason for his lying). We dunk one town and lose one town overnight leaving 6 scum and 6 townies. Game Over.

4. They have recruited someone else (eg. Hockey Monkey for the sake of the example) and MHaye is truthful, We dunk one scum and lose a town overnight leaving 5 cult and 7 town, with a definite ID on zuma v.2


Make of these examples what you will :confused:

NAF1138
08-20-2007, 11:12 AM
Thanks FCoD and Catina, that makes sense to me now.

Dunk Sach.

So, now what? We see who is in the lead after everyone has voted and then have a single person vote for them while everyone else unvotes?

Santo Rugger
08-20-2007, 11:22 AM
Thanks FCoD and Catina, that makes sense to me now.

Dunk Sach.

So, now what? We see who is in the lead after everyone has voted and then have a single person vote for them while everyone else unvotes?

I think this is a stupid idea. Say the single person votes for scum. Then that person and one other scum place a vote at the last minute. And they'd probably do it for MHaye. Is that really what you want?

NAF1138
08-20-2007, 11:34 AM
I think this is a stupid idea. Say the single person votes for scum. Then that person and one other scum place a vote at the last minute. And they'd probably do it for MHaye. Is that really what you want?


Oh...right. Shit. Well then, do we just ignore the avatar possibility?

Queuing
08-20-2007, 11:42 AM
Since we seem to want this:

Right now I am leaning towards voting for Zuma. I am not convinced about any of these claims, but IMO the one that makes the most sense is mhaye as the apprentice. Solely because that one hasn't been counterclaimed. Lord knows if he has been recruited.

So why Zuma? He came in here a while ago all drunk and crazy promising us more to come. With the exception of the drunk part this has basically been his modus operandi for this game, lots of promised but with doing very little. He came after me near the end of one Day, even trying to get people to switch votes to me, and then when I said I would answer any and all accusations that he had against me he instead posted a little one liner post saying basically no I did that in M2 and look where that got us. This has also been standard for him, very small little posts with basically nothing in them. I can see this going either way, as scum trying to say something while really saying nothing or a monk trying to hide. Either way it is basically unacceptable for him to post what he has and then disappear.

I still will not put anything in blue until we hear from Zuma however. I am just not expecting much from him.

I do wonder more and more about Pleonast's role. Perhaps he should fully disclose his role now? While I am generally against any discussion of power roles and questions about their role or when they should disclose such a role (which has apparently put me on a couple radars) this game is pretty FUBAR'd right now, what could it hurt and just maybe it will help.

Santo Rugger
08-20-2007, 11:51 AM
Oh...right. Shit. Well then, do we just ignore the avatar possibility?

The better thing to do would be to ask MHaye and the Monks not to vote, unless the vote is close. The last thing we need is for the scum to be able to completely manipulate today's vote.

If, at the end of the day, the vote's on scum, at this point in the game a 1 to 1 trade may not be that bad, but a 1 to 1 trade with a power role may. Besides, the chances of finding the Avatar when we pop a scum are 1/n, so we'd have to do this tiptoeing every single vote until the end of the game. I don't think it's worth worrying about, it makes it too easy for the scum to sway the vote.

sachertorte
08-20-2007, 12:09 PM
I think it's safer to dunk sachertorte.

--FCOD
We should be playing to win. Not playing not to lose.
Also note that scum have a near majority already. I ask everyone to think for themselves. Don't be persuaded by anything other than what Idle Thoughts has to say or what I have to say. If you allow yourself to be persuaded by other players you could be persuaded by scum. Look at the evidence and make a determination based on that, each of you, individually. This can't be a mob vote, the mob is nearly all scum.

Who is being most thoughtful: those voting for Idle Thoughts or those already voting for me? Who would be more likely to drive the vote early, scum who know whats what or town who are trying to make sense of the situation?

Pleonast
08-20-2007, 12:12 PM
Here's my analysis, based on my available information.

14 living players
USCDiver: no claims.
Idle Thoughts: claims Monk, says zuma is Monk.
Hockey Monkey: claims Alchemist.
NAF1138: no claims.
sachertorte: claims Monk, says Cookies is Monk, called Monk by MHaye.
CatinaSuit: claims Disciple, called Believer by MHaye.
Kyrie Eleison: no claims.
Pleonast: claims pro-Town Martyr, called Believer by MHaye.
Pygmy Rugger: no claims.
FlyingCowOfDoom: called by Believer by MHaye, claims vanilla Believer.
Queuing: no claims.
zuma: no claims, called Monk by Idle.
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies: claims Monk, says sachertorte is Monk.
MHaye: claims Apprentice.

Note: by Believer, I mean "believes in Nairu", not a simple vanilla Believer.

Group A: Hockey, Pleonast, CatinaSuit
Barring recruitment of Hockey, I trust this group as pro-Town.

Group B: MHaye, FlyingCow
There's been no counter-claim against MHaye, so I trust his claim, and likewise
FlyingCow. Unless he has been recruited.

Group C: Cookies, sachertorte
Potential Monk group, supported by MHaye.

Group D: Idle, zuma
Another potential Monk group, although zuma has not self-claimed (very suspicious).

Group E: USCDiver, NAF, Kyrie, Pygmy, Queuing
No claims; our pool of unknowns.

I believe we started with 5 Cultists, now 4 remaining, plus a likely recruit, means 5 scum left. Versus probably 9 goodguys left.

The Big Question is Who was recruited? My scenarios are

Scenario I
Hockey was recruited, then MHaye is trustable. Confirmed pro-Town players: CatinaSuit, MHaye, FlyingCow, Cookies, sachertorte, Pleonast. Confirmed scum: Hockey, Idle. Likely scum: zuma. Unknowns (2-3 scum): USCDiver, NAF, Kyrie, Pygmy, Queuing.

Scenario II
MHaye was recruited, then Hockey is trustable. Confirmed pro-Town players: CatinaSuit, Hockey, Idle, zuma, Pleonast. Confirmed scum: MHaye, Cookies, sachertorte. Likely scum: FlyingCow. Unknowns (1-2 scum): USCDiver, NAF, Kyrie, Pygmy, Queuing.

Scenario III
Someone else is recruited, then MHaye and Hockey are trustable. Confirmed pro-Town players: CatinaSuit, MHaye, FlyingCow, Hockey, Cookies, sachertorte, Pleonast. Confirmed scum: Idle. Likely scum: zuma. Unknowns (3-4 scum): USCDiver, NAF, Kyrie, Pygmy, Queuing.

Scenario IV
No one is recruited, then MHaye and Hockey are trustable. Confirmed pro-Town players: CatinaSuit, MHaye, FlyingCow, Hockey, Cookies, sachertorte, Pleonast. Confirmed scum: Idle. Likely scum: zuma. Unknowns (2-3 scum): USCDiver, NAF, Kyrie, Pygmy, Queuing.

I consider the order of likelihood to IV, I, II, III. Based on that, my assessment of scumminess (from high to low) is Idle, zuma, then the unknowns USCDiver, NAF, Kyrie, Pygmy, Queuing, then Hockey, MHaye, Cookies, sachertorte, FlyingCow. I trust CatinaSuit and Pleonast.

So, my vote is going to the top of my list
Vote Idle Thoughts
Voting for sachertorte is foolish at the point in the game. We need to vote for the likeliest scum, period.

Having everyone but one back off the vote winner is too easily manipulated by scum. I will not participate in such a plan. Better to have everyone vote. If the dunkee turns up scum, let people try to explain why they didn't vote for the scum.

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-20-2007, 12:25 PM
Unvote sachertorte

Ok, I'm convinced that sachertorte may not be the best vote right now. Pleonast, I agree with your analysis. I'm going to vote Idle Thoughts, but I'd like to wait for zuma to explain himself first.

--FCOD

sachertorte
08-20-2007, 12:31 PM
mhaye you are not the apprentice. I should not post drunk. but he is not hte apprentice
Could someone not in danger of being dunked today take a look at zuma's drunken posts and reconcile them with Idle Thoughts's claims? How can zuma contradict MHaye and be a Monk? It doesn't make sense.

Either zuma is a monk who just decided to take a shot at a roleclaiming Apprentice without having any information that would allow him to contradict MHayes statements...

OR zuma is not a monk which clearly makes Idle a liar.

So in order for Idle Thoughts and zuma to be Monks, you're going to have to explain how zuma can contradict MHaye with only the information available to Monks.

Idle Thoughts
08-20-2007, 12:34 PM
Also Idle Thoughts's Theory requires quite a bit of faith that certain events occurred. First, it requires that MHaye is the Apprentice and was recruited.

Actually, no. It only requires he was recruited since he already came out as being the Apprentice and I, for one, believed him. So color me confused why you're making it seem like it's even less likely than it is.

What is the probability that scum recruited MHaye? Did they know MHaye was the Apprentice? If so, how? Were they just lucky? Perhaps.

Have you been following this game along? Are we playing in the same game? Maybe it's because you were gone for a bit but the Cult HAVE seemed to either be exceptionally lucky or exceptionally good at playing in this game. The Crusader, the Oracle, The Priest...and even being able to stay hidden for so long. How did they find ANY of those? I'm leaning more towards luck but to what end does luck stop being a factor. If they get all the power roles out of the blue, is it still luck?

You're being deliberatly obtuse here. I just wish more would see it then just me.
It's very plausible that they could have had other help, especially at finding the Priest if they converted the Apprentice.

But Idle Thoughts's Theory also requires that I be scum, and that I must have been scum from the very beginning since scum can't have recruited both MHaye and me. But what about Hal, The Oracle, and possible breadcrumbs? This theory requires believing that Hal did not investigate me and dropped a possible breadcrumb about someone he knew nothing about. What about the prophet? This makes a touch more sense, but look at my history. I was nearly dunked on the first day. Are my actions on Day One consistent with the actions of a prophet?Idle Thought's Theory requires too much to be believed. Scum had to have recruited the Apprentice and Hal had to have breadcrumbed someone he didn't investigate, or the prophet has to be me. Too complex.

I don't see how. Then again, I'm probably majorly biased since I KNOW what I am.

For Idle Thoughts to be scum, he just has to be scum. No twisting of events, or resolving who was recruited or figuring out Hal's breadcrumbs, or figuring out who the prophet is. Idle Thoughts is scum caught in a counter-claim. Caught with the mistake that MHaye knew more than just "sachertorte is a believer," but that investigations reveal power roles as well. It reasons out on its own simply and cleanly.

But I'm NOT scum. I KNOW this and again, I even wouldn't mind getting dunked just so it catches THREE of you. I just hope it's not too late by then and the numbers are even.

Also, we have zuma, who from my perspective was about to denounce MHaye as the Apprentice. How can zuma counter-claim MHaye and be a Monk? Idle Thoughts's Theory is full of holes.

Then again, zuma was quite intoxicated. I can't speak for him, though, which is why I want to hear from him as badly as everyone else.

"Clues" snipped.


It is going to take me some time to dig up all of the references where evidence of monk-monk interaction might be seen.

I purposefully did not direct anyone to them because I hoped they would be more compelling if some of you found them on your own. I still feel that way, but we're running out of time and there are certainly enough of you who appear willing to swallow the rusty hook that Idle is waving so frantically below your nose.

While I'm at it, I will also be drawing your attention to how all-over-the-place Idle has been with his posts toDay. You don't have to wait for me though, I _really_ encourage you to look at what he's been saying and how he's been saying it. As sarchertorte stated above, Idle is working it so hard because it takes a lot of work to pull off such an elaborate con with only one "public" face.

Oh TO HECK WITH YOU. THIS HAS HAPPENED TO ME TWICE NOW IN THESE GAMES.

TWICE. I know you were subbed out of four and probably didn't catch it then but THIS HAS ALL HAPPENED BEFORE.

So Crap on your "oh he must be scum because he's trying WAY too hard for you to believe him" Crap all over it. I hate that. You are WRONG that people who are in my shoes wouldn't be LIKE me or say the stuff I'm saying. I proved that theory wrong LAST GAME. I don't see why people find it so hard to believe that town being set up like this wouldn't really become all defensive and fighting against what THEY KNOW is the truth.

To ACTUAL REAL TOWN OUT THERE: WHere have you seen this before? Calm replies from others and manic replies from me? COME ON...it couldn't be more obvious.

I AM A MONK. I SWEAR TO GOD. I SWEAR ON ANYTHING. THEY ARE LYING.

It's even the same right down to trying the defense "Oh, real town wouldn't act like that" STOP THAT! That theory has already been debunked. :rolleyes:

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-20-2007, 12:41 PM
Idle... yelling isn't going to help you here. Bla bla bla this happened before yeah we know. It doesn't matter that last time you kicked and screamed all the way to the noose, even though you were telling the truth. There's nothing that says you're not lying this time, taking advantage of your previous wrongful execution. If you want to help your case try to find convincing evidence. Nobody cares what you and you alone know.

--FCOD

FlyingCowOfDoom
08-20-2007, 12:44 PM
NotETA: and weren't you exonerated last time anyway? Didn't we lynch someone else when someone caught zuma's lie?

--FCOD

Hockey Monkey
08-20-2007, 12:49 PM
Post 3137 6:57 am (My time stamp EDT)
That's pretty convenient, MHaye.

I'm going to have something to say about these various role-claims and townie upon townie getting strung up. I'll also apologize for not checking in for the last 30 hours of so of yesterday... I meant to definitely before the day ended and I kind of screwed up in that respect. I Got hung up at work again. Anyway I jsut got badck from SF and kind of drunk but I'll jsut say right now MHaye I don't believe his role claim.

MHaye I would not be surprised if you werew about ot be exposed.


Post 3138 7:08 am
mhaye you are not the apprentice. I should not post drunk. but he is not hte apprentice

Post 3140 7:50 am
it was lefty oduouls. so lame at least i rode bart home and my GF IS PISSED hahaawetr

ok yes the coffee

id vote mhaye if i could figfure out the colors ok gf is about to leave me must go we going with mom for her bday tomorrow and gf and i are seeing suberpad afterward. ok no more drunk posts vote mhaye

Post 3141 8:15 am
diggit i am sorrry :( i screwd up

This is the one I'm having trouble with. Why is he sorry he screwed up something with Diggit? Was it Diggit the Crusader or Diggit the Believer? And what did he screw up?