You-Solve-It Mafia Game

[Hawkeyeop]

It's more for your benefit than mine. You are not going to convince me that I'm scum - I know better. But you are the one who tied me for the majority of votes. The other two - Hockey and Faithfool have already stated that they are just voting for me out of habit.

Well I don't need to convince me either, so I'll not bother unless anyone else requests.

[zuma]

According to my logic. Hazel, you should not vnte for me. My logic was based on voting records. Not traits. I clearly stated that I chose to use your trait as a tie breaker. My logic is transparent. I did not vote e for you for your trait. I voted for you m your history.

[Rysto]

What the hell, let's try to get this bandwagon rolling.

Vote Dio

I'm standing by for a last-minute switch when it becomes necessary.

[HazelNutCoffee]

According to my logic. Hazel, you should not vnte for me. My logic was based on voting records. Not traits. I clearly stated that I chose to use your trait as a tie breaker. My logic is transparent. I did not vote e for you for your trait. I voted for you m your history.
Fine. You still used my trait as a factor in your decision. I've already explained myself in a previous post, but no one who's voting for me has deigned to respond. I made ONE freakin' "throwaway" vote (yesterDay, Diomedes) and apparently that damns me (I refuse to see my vote for you on Day 1 as a
"throwaway" vote since there were four people voting for you; I wasn't exactly going against the crowd). Well, I've already voted for him again, and I'm sticking to it, unless we come to an impasse where it looks like no one is going to get lynched. If sticking to my opinion is what you consider a throwaway vote, then so be it.

[Boozahol Squid, P.I.]

Sorry for lack of explanation for the HazelNut vote. Honestly, I'm buying Pleo's arguments against her more than I'm buying any of the other fairly weak cases runnign around here. I've done a 180 on faithfool, and I've never been convinced by the 'lynch brewha' crowd.

I may have time this weekend to go more in depth about this.

[Hawkeyeop]

I may have time this weekend to go more in depth about this.

That's nice, but the deadline for voting is today.

[Hockey Monkey]

:::sigh:::

unvote Brewha

vote HazelNutCoffee

[HazelNutCoffee]

Well, I said I'd only swing my vote if there was a chance of a no-lynch. Looks like there's no danger of that, at least. :rolleyes:

Apparently my defense for myself is either deliberately being ignored or is too stupid to even bother responding to. I think my time will be better spent doing my laundry.

[NAF1138]

Official Count

4 - HazelNutCoffee (Pleo, Dio, zuma, HM)

2 - brewha (faithfool, hawkeye)
2 - Diomedes (HNC, Rysto)

1 - faithfool (sach)
1- Hocky Monkey (brewha)
1- Hawkeyeop (Hal)


One player must recieve 6 votes or there will not be a lynch.
Just under 2 hours and 30 minutes until the deadline.

[Hawkeyeop]

unvote Brewha

vote Diomedes

Brewha doesn't seem to be getting much support, so I'll again switch to the most popular candidate that isn't Hazel. I think Hazel is town, and I can go either way on Dio. Consider this more a not Hazel vote then anything else.

[Boozahol Squid, P.I.]

That's nice, but the deadline for voting is today.

Damn. You're right, ofcourse. I thought we had until Sunday, for whatever reason.

Looks like it's a footrace between Hazel and I, at this point, anyways. I'll let that be my vote rationale, if nothing else is.

[Hal Briston]

Arright...of our main contenders, Diomedes tops my suspicion list. So, lets...

unvote Hawkeyeop
vote Diomedes

[NAF1138]

Tick tock people.

[HazelNutCoffee]

Okay ... it seems we are going to end with a stalemate unless someone changes their mind. I'm all for a lynch, but not my lynch.

Sorry about the snippiness of my last post. I get way too involved in these games.

[sachertorte]

Crap.

I spent most of my game time debating between faithfool and brewha yesterday, I'd shift to brewha, but that doesn't seem like a useful move. Now the town has shifted to a HazelNutCoffee vs. Diomedes face-off.

I had a bit of suspicion of Diomedes early in the game (minor stuff). I didn't pursue it further at the time since the whole brewha thing kind of took my focus. HazelNutCoffee isn't on my radar, which in and of itself is not a good thing. But if I were to vote for someone for under-the-radar reasons, it would be for Rysto. Also, I don't think the dossier item is a good reason for voting for HazelNutCoffee (as I've stated before for myself and for Hockey Monkey, and I'll include zuma and HNC on that list now too).

I'll try and re-read Diomedes and HazelNutCoffee to make a better informed decision, but for now:
vote Diomedes

[Hawkeyeop]

One more vote to get Dio the majority. Where is Faithfool when you need her?

[NAF1138]

5 - Diomedes (HNC, Rysto, hawkeye, Hal, sach)

4 - HazelNutCoffee (Pleo, Dio, zuma, HM)

1 - brewha (faithfool)
1 - Hocky Monkey (brewha)

[Rysto]

sach, you forgot to unvote. I'd hate for us to miss a lynch on a technicality.

[sachertorte]

The only evidence I have to that end would be the line in my role PM which read "(psst, you are the secret role)". From that, I assumed I was the 7% -- if someone else has something to share, speak up and I'll be happy to find that I'm the 3.5%. (Actually, if someone else does have something comparable, you'd probably best keep hush for now. Secret roles aren't looked at favorably 'round these parts...)

This quote is from Day One, and is totally irrelevant to the Diomedes v. HazelNutCoffee discussion. But I read it and it made me mildly suspicious of Hal Briston, so I figured I'd post it now for revisit Tomorrow (by me or by surviving town).

I'm of the opinion that there is exactly one secret pro-town role. If someone is holding a secret role, you need to speak up and refute Hal Briston. Furthermore, I find Hal Briston's statement encouraging any other secret role to keep quiet suspicious.

on preview:
unvote faithfool
vote Diomedes

[Hal Briston]

To clear things up for you, sach -- the point of what I said was that as far as I'm aware, my role was the entire 7% secret. I'll be very surprised if someone else comes along with a claim of having a secret role as well.

[Hawkeyeop]

We got a half hour. Can someone else throw their vote over to Dio to ensure a lynch?

[brewha]

I don't find Dio particularly scummy, but I do think that Hockey Monkey and Pleonast are. I am voting purely based on my assumption that the person they are voting for is not scum.

Unvote Hockey Monkey

Vote Diomedes

I don't like this vote and I know that if Dio comes up town I will be labeled the scum 'hammer'. But, at least a lynch will tell us why Dio has voted the way he has - that info is better the the nothing we would gain from a no lynch.

[faithfool]

Sorry I'm late. I've been up all night and I'm terribly groggy. Have I missed the deadline? I thought I'd already voted. I really, really apologize. I'm trying to catch up now.

[Hawkeyeop]

Sorry I'm late. I've been up all night and I'm terribly groggy. Have I missed the deadline? I thought I'd already voted. I really, really apologize. I'm trying to catch up now.

I just thought you would want to get into the lynching Dio action. Day ends in about 2 minutes, but we got enough votes already.

[NAF1138]

Dusk coming soon.

[NAF1138]

Managment would like to apologize for managments lack of appropriate color over the last several color posting cycles. Management regrets to say that it is still burried at work but will write up the Dawn post over the weekend so as to make up for the lack of said color in the past.

Managment would also like to inform you (regretfully) of the passing of a beloved associate who was not now nor had he ever been Disgruntled.

Please, a moment of silence for the passing of Diomedes







-----------------------------------






-----------------------------------



Back to work.


Diomedes - Associate

is dead.

Dio, you have until the start of the next Day to speak your final peace.

If you don't wanna talk to these guys anymore, I understand. PM me or MtgMan and we will let ya into the forbidden thread.


48 hours from this post is the length of the Night.

See most of you in the morning.

[Rysto]

Ah, hell. Sorry, Dio. I guess the two of us were on the same team once again.

[Hal Briston]

...rassin' frassin'....

Sorry about that, Dio...

[dotchan]

The heckler from the Peanut Gallery is once again requesting people to be on standby in case substitute players are needed in the Off-Board Mafia Game (http://psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi).

[faithfool]

I thought we couldn't talk once the day is over or just not after 'night' has fallen?

[HazelNutCoffee]

I thought we couldn't talk once the day is over or just not after 'night' has fallen?
We can talk, we just can't discuss game strategy.

Sorry, Diomedes. :: looks ruefully at scumdar :: I guess this thing isn't worth a damn.

I can has drink?

[NAF1138]

I thought we couldn't talk once the day is over or just not after 'night' has fallen?

You can talk, you just can't say anything. In other games there has been a lot of "Night time chatter" usually faux drinking at the bar. In this game...well you are a quiet bunch in general in this game.

[faithfool]

Never mind. I'm going to bed.

[faithfool]

Ah, thanks Hazel and NAF. Sorry Dio. :( Goes to show we've both been wrong.

[Boozahol Squid, P.I.]

Screw all you guys! And double nuts to the Ungruntled ones of you! :p

[HazelNutCoffee]

I think you mean, you guys still can't edit, Dio. :p

I was bored enough today to re-read the Cult of Sekham mafia game. It was when I lost my mafia virginity. :: nostalgic sigh :: It's funny when you re-read those threads and think, whoa, people need to chill - it's just a game! But then when you're actually playing the game there comes a point where you're seeing red and typing out DON'T call me a LIAR you BASTARD PIECE OF SCUM GAAAARGHGSDKMVSKIDJF*&$%!!!!!!!11!111!1 (Even if you yourself ARE scum; it's amazing how indignant people get over the truth sometimes, heh.)

I suppose we've been pretty tame in comparison to previous games. I mean, last time around we had people drunk and dancing in cages during the Night. Now everyone just goes to bed. :dubious:

[Hal Briston]

I mean, last time around we had people drunk and dancing in cages during the Night. Now everyone just goes to bed. :dubious:Arright...I'll handle this.

:sets up trampoline overlooking vat of jello-n-rum:

[Hockey Monkey]

:::sploosh!:::

[HazelNutCoffee]

Ick! It's all sticky!

[dotchan]

(Bumping from the Peanut Gallery)

I could sing Air Supply... :D

[Mtgman]

:::sploosh!:::
Mmm, Porn Jelly (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Murdock#Porn_Jelly).

Enjoy,
Steven

[Boozahol Squid, P.I.]

Mmm, Porn Jelly (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Murdock#Porn_Jelly).

Enjoy,
Steven

I think I've said this before but.... I almost never "Enjoy" the things you post. :)

[NAF1138]

ok, it looks like everyone is ready but me. I have to run a quickisk errand and then I should be able to start the Day. Hopefully I can get things rolling by 2pm pacific time.

Thanks for your patience.

[faithfool]

Just as a note.... I'll be gone for the next week, but hopefully I'll be able to check in every night. Hope that doesn't cause a hardship for anyone. Have a good one y'all. :)

[Mtgman]

ok, it looks like everyone is ready but me. I have to run a quickisk errand and then I should be able to start the Day. Hopefully I can get things rolling by 2pm pacific time.

Thanks for your patience.

And in the meantime...


You really didn't need to see this again. You were there, you know every detail intimately. Still, the vision flooded into your eyes and overwhelmed your senses.

The CEO would be proud. Teamwork, he had said, was the key to survival here. At the dusk of the fifth Day since his departure, something must have smiled down on you.

The team gathered around Diomedes in the central courtyard. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide, he looked from face to face, searching for pity, or succor. He found nothing. Everyone was certain he was either a murderer or was part of the conspiracy to commit mass murder. Or, if certain members were not certain, they had agreed to this course of action and were bound to see it through, no matter what it did to the stock price, or their pension plan.

HazelNutCoffee stepped up and began the execution, with harsh words for the condemmed. "You know, a Limited Liability Partnership is a chickenshit way of doing things. Either own your decisions, or be a silent investor. This nonsense about trying to have it both ways is just cowardly." With those biting comments still ringing in everyone's ears, she reached to her belt and unfastened it, drawing it slowly from around her waist until it hung from her outstretched hand like a wide strap of pure malice. Once, twice, thrice she slashed it diagonally across whatever part of Diomedes she could reach. Her eyes were cold, but her mouth held a hint of a smile, as she continued to strike him.

"Oh God," cried Diomedes, "why are you doing this, I'm innocent, I swear!"

No mercy was in the team that day however. brewha took up where HazelNutCoffee had left off. A conflicted soul, yet determined to do what was right for the team, regardless of the cost. He took Diomedes by the collar, ignoring the rapidly swelling welts from the lashing, and marched Diomedes straight over to the iron pier above the tallest drop. A grip of adamant held the condemmed as he tetered near the precipice. "Confess," was all brewha said. "I'm innocent!" came the cry from Diomedes' tormented lips. In reply brewha turned and thrust him back into the waiting group. A low stone bench caused Diomedes to fall and strike his head, opening a bloody rent in the back of his skull. He staggered to his feet and looked for a respite from his agony.

sachertorte stopped Diomedes as he staggered back into the group, with suprisingly gentle hands. "We just want the nightmare to end Diomedes," he said reasonably. A reasonableness given lie by the action which accompanied the words. As sachertorte spoke, he twisted Diomedes' necktie, cruelly compressing the carteroid arteries and cutting off Diomedes' breath. A quick pivot and yank and sachertorte had flung the victim further into the group, who stood waiting to administer justice.

Hawkeyeop stood his ground until the last second, as Diomedes, propelled fiercely by sachertorte, came straight at him. At the last possible moment he sidestepped, but left his foot in Diomedes' path. Diomedes tripped and fell, face first into the embers of the council fire they had built to decide who to execute that day. Hot coals seared his hands and chest, burning his flesh, and igniting his soul patch. As he gasped for air the sparks flew up into his mouth and nose, burning, burning, burning. Hawkeyeop watched him burn and was unmoved.

Unable to speak, unwilling to continue to seek pity where there was none, Diomedes gathered his strength and fled towards the martial arts studio. The squishing of his feet in his wet shoes was eerily loud when constrasted with the silent menace of his executioners.

Pleonast was in no hurry. The wet footprints(all the left foot) would lead him straight to Diomedes. He stalked his prey remorselessly. He had no grand plans to salvage this situation, but he could not ignore the danger Diomedes presented, nor the mandate of the team. As he reached the door to the studio he wrinkled his nose in disgust. He could never abide posers, and since Diomedes had loaded himself down with every weapon he could get his burning hands on, he looked like a walking weapon rack. Pleonast did not even have to dodge the throwing stars. Diomedes had no training or natural aptitude for the martial arts. In fact, he had already cut himself a large gash on his left thigh with a wakizashi, the fabric of his pants was sticking to his leg with a combination of blood and urine. Pleonast calmly picked up a throwing star and threw it casually, with deadly intent. Diomedes threw himself to one side to avoid the missile weapon, but staggered due to his wounded leg and heavily encumbered body. Most of his weapons clattered to the ground and his legs became entangled with a bokken he had discarded during his mad rush to arm himself. Another fall saw one of the throwing stars he had hastily tied to himself pierce his right bicep.

Diomedes knew this was the end of his hopes for armed resistance. He threw as many weapons as he could at Pleonast and ran again.

Rysto was waiting for him. With ruthless efficiency befitting a man seeking strong performance reviews, Rysto set about bringing punishment to the convicted man. Fingernails raked across the welts from his lashing. The tie was ripped from his neck. The burns on his face were gouged and places where his clothing was burned were ripped open to expose more flesh to the bitter cold. The entire left pant leg, soaking in blood and bodily wastes was ripped away, exposing the wounds and wet skin. Diomedes flopped on his stomach and twisted and turned like an earthworm cought out in the sunlight, with no shelter in sight.

Hal Briston called Rysto away for a coffee break. Hal Briston, the mild-mannered, gentle soul, had had enough. Enough of the terror every night. Enough of wondering if he would wake up in the morning. Enough of constantly writing and re-writing his final letters to his family. Enough of the same old boring conversation over and over in the neighboring cubicles, and now it was time for someone to pay. Diomedes thought Rysto was brutal, but nothing prepared him for Hal Briston's onslaught. Hal Briston, himself, was well prepared, with his camera on repeat burst mode on a nearby tripod. Only such a setting could capture the savage uppercuts which rocked Diomedes repeatedly, causing a whiplash effect all up and down his body. A series of hammering blows left Diomedes stunned and coughing up blood on the cold ground.

faithfool knelt beside Diomedes, and calmly broke his nose with one open-palm strike. "You've had worse than that coming for a very long time," she said. She stood unhurriedly and kicked him in the ribs, feeling the bones bend and break at the end of each blow.

zuma focused his anger and shook off most of the effects of his early start on the evening's drinking to contribute to the group's effort. He rolled Diomedes over onto his hands and knees and barked "crawl!" Diomedes struggled, clearly favoring his right arm and left leg. Whenever he slipped in blood or tears, zuma was right there to yank up on the back of his waistband, sending ripples through his injured ribs and bringing bright red blood to each cough. "i take no pleausre in this" zuma said, as he reached down and tore Diomedes' left ear from the side of his head and left the misshapen cartiledge to hang free. With one final, savage kick to Diomedes backside, as he crawled through the courtyard, zuma stepped away.

Hockey Monkey ended it with one swift movement. A stiletto heel driven through Diomedes' right temple stopped his wriggling immediately. He never saw it coming.

Enjoy,
Steven

[HazelNutCoffee]

......... :eek:

[Hockey Monkey]

wha?

[Mtgman]

Lynch victims get death scenes too. Most have chosen not to do so, or like mhaye done something perfunctory, but Diomedes specifically asked for something, spectacular...

Enjoy,
Steven

[Hockey Monkey]

Well spectacular it was!

[HazelNutCoffee]

Nitpick - I prefer using birch switches to belts. :p

[NAF1138]

As morning breaks on your 6th day in this nightmareish cororate retreat, you hear over the loudspeakers a voice singing unaccompanied. Faintly at first. Then slowly getting louder, and louder until it becomes ear splitting.

"BAH BAH BLACKSHEEP HAVE YOU ANY WOOL? YES SIR YES SIR THREE BAGS FULL"

Over and over it plays warbling between the keys of A and G# with the occasional giggle between lyrics.

Were the silent pigs taunting you again? Were they once more calling you sheep? Had they failed to kill anyone?

No...this was a specific taunt.

Hal Briston - The Cubicle Evesdropper (and a perfectly happy Associate)

is dead.

9 of you are left, so it only takes 5 like minded people to secure a lynch. and 6 to end the Day early.

Seven Days from this post is the lynch deadline. Next Sunday at 2pm pacific.

Go Team!

[Hockey Monkey]

Can we please kill some scum now?

vote brewha

[Hockey Monkey]

NAF's vote count at 1259

4 - HazelNutCoffee (Pleo, Dio, zuma, HM)

2 - brewha (faithfool, hawkeye)
2 - Diomedes (HNC, Rysto)

1 - faithfool (sach)
1- Hocky Monkey (brewha)
1- Hawkeyeop (Hal)

At this point, I think there is a scum up on the leaderboard, with another scum in second. The next person on the list (Diomedes) has had some suspicion and seems to be a good target.


HazelNutCoffee started off the votes for Dio, then Rysto adds:
What the hell, let's try to get this bandwagon rolling.

Vote Dio

I'm standing by for a last-minute switch when it becomes necessary.

Hawkeyeop comes next with:
unvote Brewha

vote Diomedes

Brewha doesn't seem to be getting much support, so I'll again switch to the most popular candidate that isn't Hazel. I think Hazel is town, and I can go either way on Dio. Consider this more a not Hazel vote then anything else. OK, I will.

Sach is next with:
Crap.

I spent most of my game time debating between faithfool and brewha yesterday, I'd shift to brewha, but that doesn't seem like a useful move. Now the town has shifted to a HazelNutCoffee vs. Diomedes face-off.

I had a bit of suspicion of Diomedes early in the game (minor stuff). I didn't pursue it further at the time since the whole brewha thing kind of took my focus. HazelNutCoffee isn't on my radar, which in and of itself is not a good thing. But if I were to vote for someone for under-the-radar reasons, it would be for Rysto. Also, I don't think the dossier item is a good reason for voting for HazelNutCoffee (as I've stated before for myself and for Hockey Monkey, and I'll include zuma and HNC on that list now too).

I'll try and re-read Diomedes and HazelNutCoffee to make a better informed decision, but for now:
vote Diomedes

Then dearly departed Hal votes for Dio.

The nail in the coffin:

I don't find Dio particularly scummy, but I do think that Hockey Monkey and Pleonast are. I am voting purely based on my assumption that the person they are voting for is not scum.

Unvote Hockey Monkey

Vote Diomedes

I don't like this vote and I know that if Dio comes up town I will be labeled the scum 'hammer'. But, at least a lynch will tell us why Dio has voted the way he has - that info is better the the nothing we would gain from a no lynch.

We got led around by the nose on this lynch folks. The question is who was doing the leading. It wasn't Hal, and I don't think it was Sach. My top suspicions are brewha, HazelNutCoffee, and Rysto. I'm not really sure about Hawkeyeop.

[zuma]

First, I'm going to get this off my chest. Because I was furious upon logging in after the day ended and seeing that Diomedes had been lynched. There will be little strategizing in this post, mostly venting. But it needs to be said, and hopefully read if we have a chance to win. I don't think we will win. I'll be fucking shocked if we win, based on the history of this game.

That was the most dysfunctional, ridiculous, and asinine lynch ever, in all my mafia games. It will go down in the hall of fame of town stupidity. First of all, almost nobody gave any reason for the Diomedes votes. Second, we all did the ridiculous "wait until the last hour" voting. I'll include myself in this, somewhat, for waiting until the day before. But we cannot do this again. Third, nobody seems to give a shit about vote history. I remember Pleonast and to a lesser extent Brewha at least making cases based on the best evidence we have.. vote histories.

Diomedes was a terrible, terrible lynch choice. He was key in getting the freudian lynch done. He was out front on day 1 in getting all the dossiers revealed. It was a retarded fucking lynch. And I think we need to take a good, hard look at the voting patterns of the past 2 days.

I also think we need to do a better job at justifying our votes. I think everyone that votes need to list reasons. Even if you've listed them before. We have to bat .750 from here on out. Yesterday was total and complete bullshit.

[zuma]

This is not alalysis, I haven't yet re-read, but I'd like to present a list of facts we have learned.

HNC, Rysto, Hawkeye, Hal, sach, and brewha killed a townie yesterday. This doesn't imply guilt, but is evidence nonetheless.

There are six town and three scum left. We only get one more mislynch.

OAOW, N0 and N1 killer, did not lie about the two traits that killed him (claimed 7-11 and public washington monument)

N2 and N3 killer lied about his/her traits. (7-11 and cow udder). Sach claimed cow udder, hm claimed 7-11.

N4 had a new killer with the Sicilian trait. zuma and HNC claimed Sicilian.

Faithfool did not lie about her dossier.

Hal was town and had the ability to recieve at least one dossier.

[zuma]

Now for my thoughts on Hal Briston.

Yesterday I mentioned, in a reply to Pleonast, that Hal would need to be talked about today. I was very skeptical of Hal's role-claim from day 1. A few others had voiced that opinion as well. I didn't really say anything about Hal because I thought it was possible that Hal lied when he said he only got faithfool's dossier.

I thought it may have been possible that he got to request one per night, but claimed he only got one as to not get night-killed. One reason I believed this was because just recieving one random dossier seems kind of pointless. Another reason was faithfool's very suspicious post on night 0. If anyone deserved an investigation night 0, it was faithfool. However, saying anything about this possibility would have endangered Hal. Did anyone else have this thought?

I was going to ask Hal this question today, as I thought we're just about out of time with no margin for error. It started to increasingly bother me that he had not been killed yet, as I thought scum would have considered this as well. Now that Hal is confirmed town, I want to see if he breadcrumbed anything.

All in all, I kind of put him on the back burner, hoping that my mild suspicion was correct. I think this may have been why Hal was finally killed.

Now, I want to examine Hal's day 1 revelations.

Hal, on day 1 (420-440ish), made the following claims:

Because that's what the 7% secret was. I was given a copy of faithfool's dossier at the onset of game, and she was honest about her traits.
No joke, no whoosh -- I wouldn't exactly call these "super powers", but I would very much like to have all the cards (or dossiers, as the case may be) on the table before the day is out and I wind up being tossed off a mountain.

This is a very quick re-read, and will be examined more in depth tomorrow. Freudian was right up to bat asking Hal if he had all the dossiers. Hah. Hal replied "wouldn't you like to know".

Now, what we can learn from this is that scum freudian was worried about Hal having all the dossiers. Only at the end of the day after all dossiers were revealed did Hal say he only got faithfool's and would get no more.

So, I believe that scum who revealed prior to Hal's claim were more likely to lie, and scum who revealed after would be less likely to lie, worried that Hal had more dossiers.

Players who revealed dossiers prior to Hal making his claim (if scum, possibly more likely to lie):

Rysto
Mhaye
zuma
brewha
Hazel
faithfool (CONFIRMED TRUTHFUL DOSSIER)
Diomedes
Pleonast
Hockeymonkey

Players who revealed dossiers after Hal claimed (if scum, possibly less likely to lie):

Storyteller
Cookies
OAOW
Freudian Slit
shadowfacts
Hawkeye
sachertorte
kat
Hal

This may explain why OAOW did not lie about his 7-11 trait. Beyond that, I'll need to think about it some more.
It's interesting that all the night kills have been from the "less likely to lie" group. We seem to have a lot of potential liars in the first group.

[zuma]

Vote Histories

Day 1
Mhaye (10): OAOW, zuma, brewha, freudian slit, Diomedes, Hawkeyeop, Kat, Cookies, Pleonast, Hockey Monkey
zuma (4): sachertorte, Mhaye, Hal Briston, HazelNutCoffee
Diomedes (1): storyteller
Hal(1): faithfool
brewha (1): shadowfacts
No Vote (1): Rysto

Day 2

Day 2 votes in correct order... I'm not sure there's much to be gleaned from day 2, for when Cookies revealed the killer's trait, a OAOW lynch was inevitable.

However, I thought I'd list the pre-revelation vote count:

brewha (2): shadowfacts, Hockey Monkey
faithfool (2): Diomedes, Pleonast
Diomedes (1): faithfool

Here's the end of day vote count:

OAOW (10): Hal, Hawkeyeop, sachertorte, shadowfacts, freudian slit, Kat, Hockey Monkey, faithfool, Diomedes, OAOW
Diomedes (1): Rysto
No Vote (5): brewha, Hazel, zuma, story, Pleonast

The only things to note were that Pleonast placed the 5th vote on OAOW, then unvoted because he said he didn't want to end the day early. Diomedes placed the 9th vote (I think we've discussed that one), and OAOW self-hammered the 10th vote to end the day instantly. Rysto said he placed his vote on Diomedes because of Diomedes's 9th vote.

Day 3

Day 3 vote counts: (This was the no-lynch day - Brewha was 1 vote short of majority)

brewha (7): sach, Hockey Monkey, Hawkeyeop, fruedian slit, Rysto, Hal, Pleonast
faithfool (2): Diomedes, zuma
Diomedes (2): faithfool, kat
Hawkeyeop(1): Brewha
No Vote (2): HazelNutCoffee, storyteller

Day 4

Here was the state of voting before story laid out his case against Fruedian Slit if anyone is interested:

brewha (6): Hockey Monkey, freudian slit, hawkeyeop, sachertorte, Diomedes, faithfool
faithfool (2): Pleonast, zuma
Diomedes (1): HazelNutCoffee
Not yet voted: Rysto, storyteller, brewha, Hal

And the final vote count in the correct order:

Freudian Slit (8): storyteller, brewha, zuma, Diomedes, sachertorte, rysto, hawkeyeop, faithfool
brewha (3): Hockey Monkey, Freudian Slit, Pleonast
Diomedes (2): HazelNutCoffee, Hal

Day 5

Hazel: Pleo, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey Monkey
brewha: faithfool
Diomedes: Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye, Hal, sach, brewha

[zuma]

I also want to take a look at day 5 voting history, whereby HNC and brewha were tied 3-3, then all of a sudden HNC voted Diomedes (the most ridiculous vote ever), and a final-hours pile-on lynched a townie.

[zuma]

At this point, I think there is a scum up on the leaderboard, with another scum in second. The next person on the list (Diomedes) has had some suspicion and seems to be a good target.

HM, I think we're thinking the same way here. All things were slow when brewha and HNC were garnering votes. Then all of a sudden the Diomedes lynch went crazy. I've been a brewha defender, but I have to re-think this. We have a week and I hope we hear actual analysis from some of the silent players.

My prime suspect remains HNC. I won't place a vote just yet. I really want to hear from the most-bullshit-lynched victim ever, Diomedes. I give him credit for actually posting a death scene. If I had that happen to me, I'd be torn between a no death scene, or a "go fuck yourselves" scene :) If I get lynched you'll get one of the two.

[Boozahol Squid, P.I.]

My prime suspect remains HNC. I won't place a vote just yet. I really want to hear from the most-bullshit-lynched victim ever, Diomedes. I give him credit for actually posting a death scene. If I had that happen to me, I'd be torn between a no death scene, or a "go fuck yourselves" scene :) If I get lynched you'll get one of the two.

<ghostly voice from the afterlife>
Sometimes you get the best of both worlds...
</gfta>

[HazelNutCoffee]

I also want to take a look at day 5 voting history, whereby HNC and brewha were tied 3-3, then all of a sudden HNC voted Diomedes (the most ridiculous vote ever), and a final-hours pile-on lynched a townie.
I'll post more later - but seriously, how was I supposed to know my one vote was going to turn into a lynch? Rysto was the one who called my one vote a bandwagon (just an observation, btw, at least for the time being). If I'd wanted to instigate a pile-on it would have made more sense for me to vote for brewha at that point. It wasn't a throwaway vote - I had reasons which I posted and which made sense to me at the time.

[brewha]

Sorry to say, but I think we're hosed. So far the SOP has been point fingers at me, then in the final hours of the day, lynch someone else. While this has worked once, I really don't think it's the best strategy. It looks like Hockey Monkey is hell bent on doing it again today though.

The town is getting lead around by the scum. I just don't know who the leader is. The problem is that actually townies are saying very little. It seems like everyone is waiting for someone else to make a decision and then blindly following them. The problem is that it's not the good guys making the decisions. If we don't get more participation from actual townies, we have no chance of winning. At this point, however, I doubt that even that boosts our odds much.

It was very dumb of me to vote for Dio yesterday without a valid reason. At least we know he was town. I'm going to go back and see who he's been voting for and for what reasons. At least we know that his intentions were good since he is now confirmed town.

As for now, my suspicions remain on Hockey Monkey and Pleonast. Hawkeyeop is getting up to the top of my list as well - both for his unfounded accusations of me two days ago and his pleading for the final vote for Dio at the end of yesterday. I'm going to look into Dio's actions before casting a vote though.

[Hawkeyeop]

As for now, my suspicions remain on Hockey Monkey and Pleonast. Hawkeyeop is getting up to the top of my list as well - both for his unfounded accusations of me two days ago and his pleading for the final vote for Dio at the end of yesterday. I'm going to look into Dio's actions before casting a vote though.

I pleaded for the Dio vote, because I was worried about a no lynch. I still believe a no lynch would of been worse and I still believe Hazel is town.

vote Brewha

I'll remake and expand my case in the next couple days.

[Pleonast]

Thanks for the colored vote counts, zuma. Saves me the opportunity to get it wrong. ;)

While some players like to look the reasoning behind votes (and I hope a few people do do a detailed look at that; the more approaches, the more likely we get one that works), I'll stick with a simple vote analysis.Day 1
Mhaye (10): OAOW, zuma, brewha, freudian slit, Diomedes, Hawkeyeop, Kat, Cookies, Pleonast, Hockey Monkey
zuma (4): sachertorte, Mhaye, Hal Briston, HazelNutCoffee
Diomedes (1): storyteller
Hal(1): faithfool
brewha (1): shadowfacts
No Vote (1): Rysto
I'm not sure how much we can get from Day 1. We had very little information and Scum probably scattered their votes. If we assume that they put their votes in the same pattern as us, there'd be 3 scum voting for MHaye and 2 not. So, I'll guess:
1 scum in zuma, brewha, Hawkeyeop, Pleonast, Hockey Monkey
2 scum in sachertorte, HazelNutCoffee, faithfool, Rysto
Day 2

Day 2 votes in correct order... I'm not sure there's much to be gleaned from day 2, for when Cookies revealed the killer's trait, a OAOW lynch was inevitable.

However, I thought I'd list the pre-revelation vote count:

brewha (2): shadowfacts, Hockey Monkey
faithfool (2): Diomedes, Pleonast
Diomedes (1): faithfool

Here's the end of day vote count:

OAOW (10): Hal, Hawkeyeop, sachertorte, shadowfacts, freudian slit, Kat, Hockey Monkey, faithfool, Diomedes, OAOW
Diomedes (1): Rysto
No Vote (5): brewha, Hazel, zuma, story, Pleonast

The only things to note were that Pleonast placed the 5th vote on OAOW, then unvoted because he said he didn't want to end the day early. Diomedes placed the 9th vote (I think we've discussed that one), and OAOW self-hammered the 10th vote to end the day instantly. Rysto said he placed his vote on Diomedes because of Diomedes's 9th vote.
I don't think the pre-revelation votes matter much--simply shows who're the more active players without giving any info on scumminess. And the end of the Day votes are not useful either. It was very clear that OAOW was scum. I won't make scum estimation from this.
Day 3

Day 3 vote counts: (This was the no-lynch day - Brewha was 1 vote short of majority)

brewha (7): sach, Hockey Monkey, Hawkeyeop, fruedian slit, Rysto, Hal, Pleonast
faithfool (2): Diomedes, zuma
Diomedes (2): faithfool, kat
Hawkeyeop(1): Brewha
No Vote (2): HazelNutCoffee, storyteller
I think the Scum probably split themselves between for/against brewha.
1 scum in sach, Hockey Monkey, Hawkeyeop, Rysto, Pleonast
2 scum in zuma, faithfool, Brewha, HazelNutCoffee
(Yes, that's slightly different than yesterDay. I think I need to include brewha in this analysis.)
Day 4

Here was the state of voting before story laid out his case against Fruedian Slit if anyone is interested:

brewha (6): Hockey Monkey, freudian slit, hawkeyeop, sachertorte, Diomedes, faithfool
faithfool (2): Pleonast, zuma
Diomedes (1): HazelNutCoffee
Not yet voted: Rysto, storyteller, brewha, Hal

And the final vote count in the correct order:

Freudian Slit (8): storyteller, brewha, zuma, Diomedes, sachertorte, rysto, hawkeyeop, faithfool
brewha (3): Hockey Monkey, Freudian Slit, Pleonast
Diomedes (2): HazelNutCoffee, Hal
Based on what I said yesterDay, the Scum mostly avoided the bandwagon:
1 scum in brewha, zuma, sachertorte, rysto, hawkeyeop, faithfool
2 scum in Hockey Monkey, Pleonast, HazelNutCoffee
Do I really think Hockey and Hazel are scum? Maybe. But yesterDay, Hal was in that pool. Would the Scum really make it that easy to make a case against two of them? I'm probably over-thinking on what's merely a scrap of information.
Day 5

Hazel: Pleo, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey Monkey
brewha: faithfool
Diomedes: Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye, Hal, sach, brewha
Three scum left, and a Townie is lynched. Got to guess:
2 scum in Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye, sach, brewha
1 scum in Pleo, zuma, Hockey Monkey, faithfool

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

So, what's this all mean? Let's look at it by player; I'll list their scumminess fraction for each Day I estimated:
brewha: 1/5, 2/4, 1/6, 2/5
faithfool: 2/4, 2/4, 1/6, 1/4
Hockey Monkey: 1/5, 1/5, 2/3, 1/4
Hawkeyeop: 1/5, 1/5, 1/6, 2/5
HazelNutCoffee: 2/4, 2/4, 2/3, 2/5
Pleonast: 1/5, 1/5, 2/3, 1/4
Rysto: 2/4, 1/5, 1/6, 2/5
sachertorte: 2/4, 1/5, 1/6, 2/5
zuma: 1/5, 2/4, 1/6, 1/4

Note that the analysis is as objective as I can make it. But since I know I'm Town, I'll base my vote on using that:
brewha: 1/4, 2/4, 1/6, 2/5
faithfool: 2/4, 2/4, 1/6, 1/3
Hockey Monkey: 1/4, 1/4, 2/2, 1/3
Hawkeyeop: 1/4, 1/4, 1/6, 2/5
HazelNutCoffee: 2/4, 2/4, 2/2, 2/5
Rysto: 2/4, 1/4, 1/6, 2/5
sachertorte: 2/4, 1/4, 1/6, 2/5
zuma: 1/4, 2/4, 1/6, 1/3

Hazel still looks the scummiest to me. Least scummy are Hawkeye and zuma. Everyone else looks about equally scummy to me. I'll start off my vote with
vote HazelNutCoffee
Depending on the clue we get from Hal or other reasonable arguments, I'm willing to change my vote to anyone other than Hawkeye or zuma.

[zuma]

I pleaded for the Dio vote, because I was worried about a no lynch. I still believe a no lynch would of been worse and I still believe Hazel is town.

vote Brewha

I'll remake and expand my case in the next couple days.

Enough with brewha votes. 5 is a majority and 6 is instalynch. 3 scum are out there and can insta-lynch giving us our last mislynch. we all should not vote without reasons. Enough with all votes until we can digest what has happened. Quit fucking voting and start giving reasons.

[zuma]

I'll post more later - but seriously, how was I supposed to know my one vote was going to turn into a lynch? Rysto was the one who called my one vote a bandwagon (just an observation, btw, at least for the time being). If I'd wanted to instigate a pile-on it would have made more sense for me to vote for brewha at that point. It wasn't a throwaway vote - I had reasons which I posted and which made sense to me at the time.

Post your reasons.

[zuma]

Dio[/b] yesterday without a valid reason.


Yes it was, brewha. I think you need to explain your vote.

[zuma]

I pleaded for the Dio vote, because I was worried about a no lynch. I still believe a no lynch would of been worse and I still believe Hazel is town.

vote Brewha

I'll remake and expand my case in the next couple days.

Can you not vote in the meantime, or even unvote? Votes are dangerous at this point.

[zuma]

I am having a big problem with all these votes right out of the chute. We have little margin for error. Let's stop this shit now.

[Hawkeyeop]

Enough with brewha votes. 5 is a majority and 6 is instalynch. 3 scum are out there and can insta-lynch giving us our last mislynch. we all should not vote without reasons. Enough with all votes until we can digest what has happened. Quit fucking voting and start giving reasons.

Heh. You are worried that we might insta-lynch Brewha? Somehow I didn't consider that a major concern.

[zuma]

These sudden votes are worrying to me. It won't take long for scum to pile on and use up the last of our mislynches. Can we all unvote for the next day or two and actually talk about the votes of the past two days? These early votes seem pretty reckless to me.

[Hockey Monkey]

If scum wanted to pile on brewha, they've had ample opportunity. The reason they haven't...well maybe HE"S SCUM!

[zuma]

Can everyone who has voted please unvote right now?

It only takes 2 townies voting to let scum hammer our last mislynch. Let's calm down please. We have 7 days and all these crazy votes jeapordize us. PLEASE UNVOTE IMMEDIATELY

[zuma]

We haven't even heard from Diomedes and everyone is voting. This is crazy. Unvote now. This insane voting will lead to a scum mislynch.

[Rysto]

Rysto was the one who called my one vote a bandwagon (just an observation, btw, at least for the time being).
Actually, I called my vote a bandwagon.

[zuma]

Anyone who does not unvote before dio reports looks shady to me. Do not let them lead us by the nose. Unvote now.

[Hockey Monkey]

We haven't even heard from Diomedes and everyone is voting. This is crazy. Unvote now. This insane voting will lead to a scum mislynch.

zuma, diomedes is dead, he already had his last word. We won't be hearing from him anymore. We do need a death scene from Hal Briston.

And no, I'm not unvoting.

[zuma]

I meant hal. Bah. we're losing today. I don't care anymore. vote me off. This town is the most fucked up ever. We deserve to lose this and we deserve to lose today. I am sorry for wasting time posting voting histories. I am done with this game. You all deserve to lose. These early votes will kill you.

This game has been a fool's errand and I'm not wasting time with it anymore.

[Pleonast]

Can everyone who has voted please unvote right now?

It only takes 2 townies voting to let scum hammer our last mislynch. Let's calm down please. We have 7 days and all these crazy votes jeapordize us. PLEASE UNVOTE IMMEDIATELYNo, it takes six votes to insta-hammer someone. There's not going to be a sudden lynch unless half of us agree on it.

I'd rather see the real votes out there. Those are what count and we need to see where everyone truly wants to be. It's too easy to say "I intend to vote for X" and then do the opposite when it counts. Votes really matter now, and I, for one, will be looking to see who votes where and when, toDay.

zuma, as I stated before, I think you're one of the most likely to be Town. I don't think three of us are going to converge on the wrong person. (Yeah, I'm trying to be hopeful.) And trying to coerce us to not vote who we think is scummy is counterproductive.

[brewha]

Yes it was, brewha. I think you need to explain your vote.

I already said I voted without reason. There's really not much to explain. I was hoping that Dio was scum. I was sure that Hockey Monkey and Pleonast were scum and I just didn't want to vote with them. I reasoned that whoever they were voting for was town and I didn't want to vote for town.

But if they are not scum, then I got nothing. The only thing my vote accomplished was determining Dio's alignment. But, I've (quickly)gone over his posts and haven't come up with anything helpful - I'll keep looking though.

[HazelNutCoffee]

Jesus, zuma, could you please calm down? The Day has barely started. I said I'd post later, and I will, once I get off from work. (I already DID post my reasons for voting Diomedes; I'll summarize them later for everyon'e benefit, but if you really think I'm scum shouldn't you be looking for them yourself to make sure I don't self-edit? :p ) There are still some people who haven't checked in yet, and no one is in any danger of getting lynched at this point. Anyway, a rushed lynch is very obviously not in the best interests of the town, so I doubt scum are going to be brazen enough to risk instigating one.

[Pleonast]

What a surprise. An initial manic spasm of posts and then a total drop off. You needn't've worried so much, zuma.

Look, everyone, we're not out of the game yet. We're not even to lynch-or-lose yet. We have a week to figure things out, but let's not waste time.

[Hockey Monkey]

I think we are waiting for Hal's death scene. After we get that we can get to it.

[Mtgman]

I think we are waiting for Hal's death scene. After we get that we can get to it.
These words must have triggered something, for as they flew from your lips to Hal Briston's ears, there came a sudden stabbing light. You closed your eyes, but the light wouldn't be denied and as the red-tinged light overwhelmed you, your consciousness fled to a place which wasn't a place.

I knew I was playing the odds, but I figured I was inside these guys' heads. For the past five days one of us has been found brutally murdered -- a victim of a consortium of seriously pissed-off coworkers. They had a beef with the company and the way things had been run, and I was fine with that. Their methods were a little on the extreme side, but I could get behind the message they were trying to send. So I figured that after five workdays of murder, it was time for them to kick back and take the weekend off. It'd be perfectly safe for me to head out alone.

Alone.

Yeah, right...like I'm ever alone. The voices...those damn voices, following me wherever I go.

It started out simple enough. When I was hired, my first cubicle was next to Carolyn -- the horrid, bitter hag who wore way too much perfume and Never Shut Up. She knew the ins and outs of everything that happened in the company, and she made sure everyone knew it. I spent my first 11 months here sitting six feet away from her, hearing her every "Did you hear about Sal in Accounting?"..."Oooo, guess which hussy secretary is knocked up!"..."That Bettie never does a lick of work, but she keeps getting promoted -- wonder why!"

When I finally got moved to a different department, I was thrilled. I figured I'd be able to work so much better without all the distractions. Then strangest thing had happened -- I found that I couldn't work without the distractions. I needed to know what was going on in every corner of the company! Who was sleeping with whom? Who was getting unjustly promoted? Who was stealing credit for other people's work? Damnit, I needed to know these things!

So I listened. I honed my aural skills to the point that I could pick out a gossipy conversation from 50 feet over the din of the noontime cafeteria. If something was going on in this company, I knew about it.

Which is how I came to know exactly who was behind the Disgruntled Pigs.

I had pieced together everything I learned over my years with the company, and came up with a perfect suspect. I figured that since it was Saturday, none of the Pigs would be out killing. Rather they'd be off having a brew, relaxing, and plotting for the upcoming work week. All I had to do was find their room...and listen.

Stealthily, I approached the room I knew my target was in. I pressed my ear up against the door, and heard exactly what I needed to hear..."I agree with Wolfson. Everyone should share in opportunities equally. I know I wish everyone could feel the thrill I feel right now."

That voice! I knew it! It was same voice I heard in my recent vision -- the voice of the vorpal rabbit trainer! I had done it! I knew exactly who was behind this streak of murder and mayhem! I knew who was sworn to kill us all! I knew who just jammed an 8" ice pick through the door and into my skull! I knew who...

Ah, crap.Enjoy,
Steven

[zuma]

Googling "wolfson" makes this the most likely, I think:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evan_Wolfson

"I believe that homosexuals should be allowed to be as miserable as straight couples. If they want to get married, let them."

Only Hal claimed to have that trait.

[Hockey Monkey]

Nice work zuma. I've been puzzling this for the last 2 hours. Since Hal is the only one with that claimed trait, it doesn't help much, huh?

[zuma]

Come on, private spoiler board, it was like the 4th google hit.

I challenge you to camouflage the next trait better. Don't make it too hard though!

[HazelNutCoffee]

Ack, sorry, sorry - first essay assignments turned in this week, lots of grading to do.

If Hal is the only one with that trait, well, either he committed suicide ;) or someone is lying about their dossier. Either way, it's not much help, unfortunately. Guess it's back to good ol' post-combing.

[brewha]

Could there be more to it than that? He also refers to the vorpal rabbit trainer. The vorpal rabbit is the vicious lil bunny in The Holy Grail. So, who's the trainer?

Also, how'd he know which room the killer was in? Didn't he say that his special power was that he had accidently gone into Faithfool's room and found her dossier? Is this a clue? I'm going to see if I can find what he said about finding it.

[zuma]

Ack, sorry, sorry - first essay assignments turned in this week, lots of grading to do.

If Hal is the only one with that trait, well, either he committed suicide ;) or someone is lying about their dossier. Either way, it's not much help, unfortunately. Guess it's back to good ol' post-combing.

Eh, I'm voting for you again, HNC, unless something extraordinary happens. I agree with the Pleonast vote analysis. You've been on the wrong side of every vote since this game started.

No offense, but you again have a pattern of wishy-washy conclusions and taking no real stand. Either way, it's not much help!

[brewha]

Nope, Hal didn't go into Faithfool's room.

post 566 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9292899&postcount=566)

Faithfool's briefcase was delivered to Hal's room. That probably doesn't help.

[Pleonast]

Not much to add at the moment. I've made my case and vote. No one has presented anything to dissuade me.

I'm still wondering if we've figured out the correct clue and not just a self reference.

[HazelNutCoffee]

What, exactly, is your definition of taking a "real stand," zuma? I'm not sure what you want from me. My vote for Diomedes did not come out of the blue. I did not all of a sudden vote Diomedes, as your own voting timeline shows - I voted for him two Days in a row. If voting for someone twice in a row is being wishy-washy and not taking a stand, then I guess we're just going to have to disagree. (I know he didn't turn out to be scum, but that's beside the point here - Hal voted for him as well and both of them turned out Town, so that's neither here nor there.) Besides, you've ignored all my posts defending myself and just keep beating me over the head with the same accusations over and over again.

[sachertorte]

I don't understand Pleonast's case against HazelNutCoffee. I see the math, and I like math, but something is off to me. My main point of contention is the analysis doesn't take into account the fact that of the 9 players remaining, 3 are scum and 6 are Town. (i.e., given any three players, the probability is that one of them is scum.) For example, he invokes the MHaye vote and says "If we assume that they put their votes in the same pattern as us, there'd be 3 scum voting for MHaye and 2 not. So, I'll guess:" Well, why guess? Why not simply acknowledge that 1/3 of the remaining players are scum? Arbitrarily assigning 3 scum to group A and 2 scum to group B is just that... arbitrary. Why not arbitrarily assign a 4:1 split, or a 2:3 split?
Essentially, the system punishes players for being wrong and rewards players for being right, and the only players who can be reliably right are scum.

[Rysto]

Could there be more to it than that? He also refers to the vorpal rabbit trainer. The vorpal rabbit is the vicious lil bunny in The Holy Grail. So, who's the trainer?
Remember, in storyteller's death post, it was mentioned that storyteller was killed by a vicious trained rabbit. So that bit is just telling us that Hal was killed by the same person who killed story.

[Pleonast]

I don't understand Pleonast's case against HazelNutCoffee. I see the math, and I like math, but something is off to me. My main point of contention is the analysis doesn't take into account the fact that of the 9 players remaining, 3 are scum and 6 are Town. (i.e., given any three players, the probability is that one of them is scum.) For example, he invokes the MHaye vote and says "If we assume that they put their votes in the same pattern as us, there'd be 3 scum voting for MHaye and 2 not. So, I'll guess:" Well, why guess? Why not simply acknowledge that 1/3 of the remaining players are scum? Arbitrarily assigning 3 scum to group A and 2 scum to group B is just that... arbitrary. Why not arbitrarily assign a 4:1 split, or a 2:3 split?
Essentially, the system punishes players for being wrong and rewards players for being right, and the only players who can be reliably right are scum.I take each Day's vote and make my best estimate as to how I think the Scum would've distributed themselves. Yes, it's a guess, but it's not arbitrary. There are scraps of information there. I may be wrong about any given Day, but over time patterns can emerge.

And I think the pattern clearly shows Hazel has been voting more like a Scum than anyone else. If you think my inferences are wrong, please do your own analysis. I'm not claiming my approach is great, but it's what I saw as useful. I'd like to see several players take independent approaches to analyzing the game. That way, we can get past tunnel vision and scummy manipulation.

[sachertorte]

Another way to put my point on Pleonast's analysis is that he assigns whole numbers to his guesses without really needing to. They are guesses that lead to probabilities. There is no reason we need to select 3:2 over 2:3 when we can just as easily assume 2.5:2.5 or anything inbetween. Now obviously there can't really be 2.5 scum votes in one group, but the idea that 3:2 is more right than 2:3 or 2.5:2.5 strikes me as mathematically sloppy.

The way I would look at Pleonast's analysis approach...
Day 1:
By Pleonast's own analysis method all players should have probability 1/3 since "If we assume that they put their votes in the same pattern as us" (all players get 1/3 so we ignore this statistic)

Day 2: OAOW considered a given

Day 3:
Pleonast again assumes scum split themselves for/against brewha, that means another 1/3 probability. (all players get 1/3 so we ignore this statistic)

Day 4:
Pleonast says that scum avoided Freudian Slit's bandwagon, which is reasonable from the perspective that scum don't want Freudian Slit dead; but for self-preservation reasons, scum (who know that Freudian Slit is scum) would also like to join the bandwagon. Also, we don't know whether brewha is town or scum, so scum could have been faced with a choice between scummy brewha and scummy Freudian Slit and chose Freudian Slit. Based on the constant suspicion of brewha, such a strategy doesn't look optimal for scum, but if Freudian Slit was killer #2, then scum might have preferred a Freudian Slit lynch over a brewha lynch.

Day 5: If HazelNutCoffee is town then scum wouldn't care who they voted for (Diomedes v. HNC). Pleonast's numbers are predicated on the assumption that HNC is scum, which he then uses to conclude that HNC is scum.

I'll try and make my own case for someone tomorrow.

[Pleonast]

sach, you're forgetting that you need to decide the distribution based on all players living at the time of the vote, and then subtract out the players we now know the alignments of.

[sachertorte]

sach, you're forgetting that you need to decide the distribution based on all players living at the time of the vote, and then subtract out the players we now know the alignments of.
Okay. I understand what you are trying to do with Day 1 and Day 3. I still have reservations though.

What are your thoughts on your assumptions for Days 4 and 5? I think your reasoning assumes brewha is Town and HazelNutCoffee is scum, which I'm not willing to do at this time.

I'll try and see if there is anything else that would make me inclined to vote for HazelNutCoffee. Or someone else.

[zuma]

Okay. I understand what you are trying to do with Day 1 and Day 3. I still have reservations though.

What are your thoughts on your assumptions for Days 4 and 5? I think your reasoning assumes brewha is Town and HazelNutCoffee is scum, which I'm not willing to do at this time.

I'll try and see if there is anything else that would make me inclined to vote for HazelNutCoffee. Or someone else.

I understand what he's doing, and I more or less agree with his assumptions, with a few reservations. Day 1 is especially interesting to me. I doubt there is more than 1 remaining scum in the Mhaye voters. Do you really think it's likely that either 4 or 5 of the 5 scum all piled on MHaye day 1? I've not seen anything like that in any of the games I've played. And it goes against scum nature to make such a play on day 1. Townies usually fuck up day 1 on their own quite nicely, with little assistance.

Also, Day 5 is worth reviewing. Again. And again..

Consider the facts:

With a mere 4 hours to go day 5, Hazel and brewha are tied with 3 votes a piece. Dio's first vote came just 4 hours from deadline! I ask you, how likely is it that Hazel and brewha are both town? Scum would have just came in and said "well, we're running out of time, so I'll vote the scummier of the two". Or maybe one would have switched a vote around. The final hours action makes llittle to no sense if they are both town. It's inexplicable, if they are both town.

In fact, day 5 reads like they're both scum. Hazel is tied with brewha with 3 votes a piece and just 4 hours to go, and she puts a first vote on diomedes? If I were in the situation, I'd put my vote on brewha using the "I know I'm not scum, so I'll vote for the other guy" reasoning.

I plan to look at day 5 again and again, because the diomedes vote with just 4 hours to go, with two viable candidates accumulating votes before diomedes even aquires vote 1 just looks incredibly suspect to me.

I'm all but convinced they cannot both be town based on the complete turnaround in the final hours. It would have been too easy for scum to make sure one of them died, and they had the perfectly defendable "running out of time" excuse to do it!

I also want to explore the liklihood that they're both scum (I've defended brewha up til now, but yesterDay has me re-thinking that position), but if my "they're not both town" theory is correct, I'm more likely to vote for HazelNutCoffee at this time.

[zuma]

Sach, although I replied to you, that post was primarily aimed at everyone as a whole. And yes I acknowlege that you understand the day 1 analysis.

[brewha]

One thing about HNC has been bothering me. My only real reason to trust her is that she forgot about the game. I thought it was unlikely for someone with a scum role to just forget. But, after I made that statement, she actually corrected me. She said something along the lines of 'I simply forgot - don't read into it'. (I'll go back and find the actual quote). It sounded an aweful lot to me that she was trying to correct my reasoning. If she were indeed town, why would she make that statement? Of course I can't see a reason she would make that statemeant if she were scum either.

[zuma]

And if we don't want to change the subject from pleo's vote analysis and have something to talk about today (for those of us actually talking), what do you think of my theory that based on the day 5 votes, HNC and brewha are likely not both town?

I could be wrong, and intend to break down the timeline a bit more, with a post coming tomorrow to examine the timeline, but I'd honestly like to hear any thoughts on this theory. The final 12 hours of day 5 are only a couple pages back. It just looks awfully convenient that Diomedes came out of nowhere Day 5. I think one or both of HNC and brewha was scum, and the lynching of Diomedes saved someone.

[Hockey Monkey]

And if we don't want to change the subject from pleo's vote analysis and have something to talk about today (for those of us actually talking), what do you think of my theory that based on the day 5 votes, HNC and brewha are likely not both town?

I could be wrong, and intend to break down the timeline a bit more, with a post coming tomorrow to examine the timeline, but I'd honestly like to hear any thoughts on this theory. The final 12 hours of day 5 are only a couple pages back. It just looks awfully convenient that Diomedes came out of nowhere Day 5. I think one or both of HNC and brewha was scum, and the lynching of Diomedes saved someone.

Finally!

[Pleonast]

I don't think I'm assuming Hazel is scum in my approach. My estimation of the scum distribution boils down to: more scum vote for Town than others. We know Dio was Town, so I estimate that more of the remaining scum voted for him than not.

Remember, I'm not basing my vote on the analysis of any one Day, but the pattern that emerged over multiple Days.

I'd rather we not spend too much time arguing over my approach. It's better if everyone explains their own approach, and then we can hash out what we have.

I agree that my analysis is biased towards assuming brewha is Town. I thought he was. It doesn't seem likely that we'd be on the correct track three Days in a row. But the way the Day 3 lynch was not finalized is suspicious. And the Day 5 vote progression is creepy. Why did Dio get lynched, if not because the top two vote-getters were scum?

[Hawkeyeop]

And if we don't want to change the subject from pleo's vote analysis and have something to talk about today (for those of us actually talking), what do you think of my theory that based on the day 5 votes, HNC and brewha are likely not both town?

If Brewha is scum and Hazel is scum, it makes sense for Hazel to try to implicate a third party. However, there were other people who already had a vote on them (like me), so I find it odd that she would find an entirely new target. I believe she is a town member who didn't like the case against Brewha and legitimately thought Dio was scummy. My working theory would be that Rysto (scum) jumped on this to add a second vote to Dio to try to (and succeed) in making it a choice between two town members saving fellow scum Brewha..

[zuma]

Anyway, Here is the final 12 hours of Day 5, and maybe we can discuss this and provide some theories. All times PST, screw the east coast.

11:30 p.m. (12 hours to deadline)

faithfool (3): Hawkeye, sachertorote, zuma
Hazel (2): Pleonast, Diomedes
brewha (2): HockeyMonkey, faithfool
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha

01:07 a.m. (10:23 to deadline)
zuma unvotes faithfool, votes Hazel (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9405304&postcount=1232)
Reason: torn between 2, uses sicilian trait/faithfool newbie as tie-breaker

Hazel (3): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
faithfool (2): Hawkeye, sachertorote
brewha (2): HockeyMonkey, faithfool
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha

06:04 a.m. (7:26 to deadline)
Hawkeye unvotes faithfool, votes Brewha (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9405614&postcount=1237)
Reason: "Running out of time" "That leaves us with 2 candidates with 3 votes and no one else with more then 1. So can everyone else pick one of those two options."

Hazel (3): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
brewha (3): HockeyMonkey, faithfool, Hawkeeye
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha

07:24 a.m. (4:06 to deadline)
Hazel votes Diomedes (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9405839&postcount=1250)
Reason: Doesn't believe brewha is scum, Pleonast, Diomedes never responded to arguments, Diomedes voted Hazel without explanation, will swing vote to avoid no-lynch.

Hazel (3): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
brewha (3): HockeyMonkey, faithfool, Hawkeeye
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
Diomedes (1): Hazel

08:14 a.m. (3:26 to deadline)
Rysto votes Diomedes (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9406037&postcount=1253)
Reason: "What the hell, let's try to get this bandwagon rolling. I'm standing by for a last-minute switch when it becomes necessary."

Hazel (3): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
brewha (3): HockeyMonkey, faithfool, Hawkeeye
Diomedes (2): Hazel, Rysto
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha

08:53 AM (02:37 to deadline)
HockeyMonkey unvotes brewha, votes Hazel (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9406193&postcount=1257)
Reason: "sigh"

Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
brewha (2): faithfool, Hawkeeye
Diomedes (2): Hazel, Rysto
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha

09:09 a.m. (2:21 to deadline)
Hawkeye unvotes brewha, votes diomedes
Reason: "Brewha doesn't seem to be getting much support, so I'll again switch to the most popular candidate that isn't Hazel. I think Hazel is town, and I can go either way on Dio. Consider this more a not Hazel vote then anything else."

Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
Diomedes (3): Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye
brewha (1): faithfool
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha

10:00 a.m. (1:30 to deadline)
Hal Briston unvotes Hawkeye, votes Diomedes
Reason: "Arright...of our main contenders, Diomedes tops my suspicion list."

Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
Diomedes (4): Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye, Hal Briston
brewha (1): faithfool
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha

10:11 a.m. (1:29 to deadline)
sachertorte [url=http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9406527&postcount=1265]votes Diomedes (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9406268&postcount=1260)
Reason: Would vote brewha/faithfool, but that doesn'nt seem useful. "I had a bit of suspicion of Diomedes early in the game (minor stuff). I didn't pursue it further at the time since the whole brewha thing kind of took my focus. HazelNutCoffee isn't on my radar, which in and of itself is not a good thing. But if I were to vote for someone for under-the-radar reasons, it would be for Rysto. Also, I don't think the dossier item is a good reason for voting for HazelNutCoffee (as I've stated before for myself and for Hockey Monkey, and I'll include zuma and HNC on that list now too). I'll try and re-read Diomedes and HazelNutCoffee to make a better informed decision"

Diomedes (5): Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye, Hal Briston, sachertorte
Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
brewha (1): faithfool
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha

[zuma]

God dammit. I accidentally hit submit instead of preview. Sorry. Fucking no-edit rule. Ignore that one, read the next one

[sachertorte]

I'm listing full post counts. Someone please double check. Deltas are in Sienna

-----
HazelNutCoffee (1) : Pleonast
-----
HazelNutCoffee (1) : Pleonast
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
-----
HazelNutCoffee (1) : Pleonast
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : Hawkeyeop
-----
HazelNutCoffee (1) : Pleonast
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : Hawkeyeop
brewha (1) : Hockey Monkey
-----
HazelNutCoffee (1) : Pleonast
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : Hawkeyeop
brewha (1) : Hockey Monkey
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
-----
HazelNutCoffee (1) : Pleonast
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : Hawkeyeop
brewha (2) : Hockey Monkey, faithfool
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
-----
HazelNutCoffee (1) : Pleonast
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (2) : Hawkeyeop, zuma
brewha (2) : Hockey Monkey, faithfool
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
-----
HazelNutCoffee (2) : Pleonast, Diomedes
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (2) : Hawkeyeop, zuma
brewha (2) : Hockey Monkey, faithfool
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
-----
HazelNutCoffee (2) : Pleonast, Diomedes
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (3) : Hawkeyeop, zuma, sachertorte
brewha (2) : Hockey Monkey, faithfool
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
-----
HazelNutCoffee (3) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (2) : Hawkeyeop, sachertorte
brewha (2) : Hockey Monkey, faithfool
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
-----
HazelNutCoffee (3) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : sachertorte
brewha (3) : Hockey Monkey, faithfool, Hawkeyeop
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
-----
HazelNutCoffee (3) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : sachertorte
brewha (3) : Hockey Monkey, faithfool, Hawkeyeop
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
Diomedes (1) : HazelNutCoffee
-----
HazelNutCoffee (3) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : sachertorte
brewha (3) : Hockey Monkey, faithfool, Hawkeyeop
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
Diomedes (2) : HazelNutCoffee, Rysto
-----
HazelNutCoffee (4) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey Monkey
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : sachertorte
brewha (2) : faithfool, Hawkeyeop
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
Diomedes (2) : HazelNutCoffee, Rysto
-----
HazelNutCoffee (4) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey Monkey
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : sachertorte
brewha (1) : faithfool
Hawkeyeop (1) : Hal Briston
Diomedes (3) : HazelNutCoffee, Rysto, Hawkeyeop
-----
HazelNutCoffee (4) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey Monkey
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (1) : sachertorte
brewha (1) : faithfool
Hawkeyeop (0)
Diomedes (4) : HazelNutCoffee, Rysto, Hawkeyeop, Hal Briston
-----
HazelNutCoffee (4) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey Monkey
HockeyMonkey (1) : brewha
faithfool (0)
brewha (1) : faithfool
Diomedes (5) : HazelNutCoffee, Rysto, Hawkeyeop, Hal Briston, sachertorte
-----
HazelNutCoffee (4) : Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey Monkey
HockeyMonkey (0)
brewha (1) : faithfool
Diomedes (6) : HazelNutCoffee, Rysto, Hawkeyeop, Hal Briston, sachertorte, brewha
-----

[zuma]

Anyway, Here is the final 12 hours of Day 5, and maybe we can discuss this and provide some theories. All times PST, screw the east coast.

If I screwed this up in any way please point it out to me. If you believe I misrepresented your reasons (most of them are just quotes, altho a couple had fairly long reason posts which I hope I condensed fairly), let me know as well.

11:30 p.m. (12 hours to deadline)

faithfool (3): Hawkeye, sachertorote, zuma
Hazel (2): Pleonast, Diomedes
brewha (2): HockeyMonkey, faithfool
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha

01:07 a.m. (10:23 to deadline)
zuma unvotes faithfool, votes Hazel (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9405304&postcount=1232)
Reason: torn between 2, uses sicilian trait/faithfool newbie as tie-breaker

Hazel (3): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
faithfool (2): Hawkeye, sachertorote
brewha (2): HockeyMonkey, faithfool
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha

06:04 a.m. (7:26 to deadline)
Hawkeye unvotes faithfool, votes Brewha (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9405614&postcount=1237)
Reason: "Running out of time" "That leaves us with 2 candidates with 3 votes and no one else with more then 1. So can everyone else pick one of those two options."

Hazel (3): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
brewha (3): HockeyMonkey, faithfool, Hawkeeye
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha

07:24 a.m. (4:06 to deadline)
Hazel votes Diomedes (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9405839&postcount=1250)
Reason: Tempted to vote Pleonast based on arbitrary numbers, tempted to vote brewha just to get him out of the way. Doesn't believe brewha is scum, Pleonast, Diomedes never responded to arguments, Diomedes voted Hazel without explanation, will swing vote to avoid no-lynch.

Hazel (3): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
brewha (3): HockeyMonkey, faithfool, Hawkeeye
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha
Diomedes (1): Hazel

08:14 a.m. (3:26 to deadline)
Rysto votes Diomedes (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9406037&postcount=1253)
Reason: "What the hell, let's try to get this bandwagon rolling. I'm standing by for a last-minute switch when it becomes necessary."

Hazel (3): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma
brewha (3): HockeyMonkey, faithfool, Hawkeeye
Diomedes (2): Hazel, Rysto
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha

08:53 AM (02:37 to deadline)
HockeyMonkey unvotes brewha, votes Hazel (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9406193&postcount=1257)
Reason: "sigh"

Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
brewha (2): faithfool, Hawkeeye
Diomedes (2): Hazel, Rysto
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha

09:09 a.m. (2:21 to deadline)
Hawkeye unvotes brewha, votes diomedes (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9406268&postcount=1260)
Reason: "Brewha doesn't seem to be getting much support, so I'll again switch to the most popular candidate that isn't Hazel. I think Hazel is town, and I can go either way on Dio. Consider this more a not Hazel vote then anything else."

Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
Diomedes (3): Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye
brewha (1): faithfool
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hawkeye (1): Hal Briston
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha

10:00 a.m. (1:30 to deadline)
Hal Briston unvotes Hawkeye, votes Diomedes (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9406468&postcount=1262)
Reason: "Arright...of our main contenders, Diomedes tops my suspicion list."

Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
Diomedes (4): Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye, Hal Briston
brewha (1): faithfool
faithfool (1): sachertorote
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha

10:11 a.m. (1:29 to deadline)
sachertorte votes Diomedes (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9406527&postcount=1265)
Reason: Would vote brewha/faithfool, but that doesn'nt seem useful. "I had a bit of suspicion of Diomedes early in the game (minor stuff). I didn't pursue it further at the time since the whole brewha thing kind of took my focus. HazelNutCoffee isn't on my radar, which in and of itself is not a good thing. But if I were to vote for someone for under-the-radar reasons, it would be for Rysto. Also, I don't think the dossier item is a good reason for voting for HazelNutCoffee (as I've stated before for myself and for Hockey Monkey, and I'll include zuma and HNC on that list now too). I'll try and re-read Diomedes and HazelNutCoffee to make a better informed decision"

Diomedes (5): Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye, Hal Briston, sachertorte
Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
brewha (1): faithfool
Hockey Monkey (1): brewha

11:09 a.m. (0:21 to deadline)
brewha unvotes Hockey, votes Diomedes (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9406757&postcount=1272)
Reason: "I don't find Dio particularly scummy, but I do think that Hockey Monkey and Pleonast are. I am voting purely based on my assumption that the person they are voting for is not scum. I don't like this vote and I know that if Dio comes up town I will be labeled the scum 'hammer'. But, at least a lynch will tell us why Dio has voted the way he has - that info is better the the nothing we would gain from a no lynch."

Diomedes (6): Hazel, Rysto, Hawkeye, Hal Briston, sachertorte, brewha
Hazel (4): Pleonast, Diomedes, zuma, Hockey
brewha (1): faithfool

[zuma]

Immediate thoughts upon reading day 5 vote histories, with the caveat that I still think one or both of Brewha/HNC are scum.

Rysto: Based on no thorough analysis, he's just been off my radar screen for a while. I hate to bring up the "delay the dossier reveal" thing again, considering what happened to Mhaye, but there you go. Not much to go on.

Second vote on Diomedes bothers me, and his reasoning "What the hell, let's try to get this bandwagon rolling." leaves a lot to be desired. Would scum actually be so bold with "let's get this bandwagon rolling"? I kind of doubt it... But I could be wrong.

Hockey Monkey: I have her on my "off the table as scum" list, for now. However, I want HM to explain her vote switch from brewha to hazel. They each had 3 votes at the time, and HM put hazel in the lead 4-2. I highly doubt I'll be voting HM today, as I find her one of the most townie at the moment. But I would like HM to provide reasoning for her vote switch beyond just "sigh".

sachertorte: Puts the fifth vote on Diomedes, and explains it without really saying anything. Just a lot of hemming and hawing. sach, you said you'd do a re-read to make sure you were making the right choice, then never posted again. I remain worried about sach.

brewha: brewha looks scummiest to me based on day 5 votes. HNC looks scummiest based on vote history. I think, at this time, one (or two) of the two got saved from the Diomedes debacle. Brewha, with 21 minutes left, put the hammer on Diomedes and that has to count for something.

[sachertorte]

sachertorte: Puts the fifth vote on Diomedes, and explains it without really saying anything. Just a lot of hemming and hawing. sach, you said you'd do a re-read to make sure you were making the right choice, then never posted again. I remain worried about sach.
I didn't change my mind, so I didn't post again.

[Hockey Monkey]

I switched votes because it was looking like no one else was going to vote brewha with me. It was a heavy sigh that conveyed my reluctance to switch because dammit, I've put in a lot of effort. Although, I do find brewha and HNC about equally scummy.

I think Rysto's "let's get this bandwagon started" vote is just about the scummiest scum thing I've ever seen a scummy scum do.

So today, I will be equally joyful to toss brewha, HNC, or Rysto.

[zuma]

I go back and forth between HNC and brewha. I'd love to throw sach off a cliff, but unless anyone can dissuade me from the notion that either HNC or brewha, or both, were saved by diomedes, My vote will be for one of the two.

What bugs me about brewha now is that he was the third MHaye voter. Would scum really constitute 3 out of the first first 4 MHaye voters?

I know I'm town, and I know 14 of 18 votes day one went against MHaye and myself. I should go back and look at day 1.

[sachertorte]

I'm onboard with zuma's "at least one of HazelNutCoffee and brewha are scum" theory.

The argument that the vote dynamics would have developed very differently if both were Town makes sense.

My preference is to lynch brewha, which shouldn't be too surprising based on my brewha history and the Day 3 no-lynch.

vote brewha

I'm willing to switch to HazelNutCoffee should the need arise.

[brewha]

Vote Brewha


I don't see a way that we can properly discuss who to lynch while people are constantly voting for me based on the logic that I've nearly been lynched every day. Hawkeye claimed to have over 17 reasons to vote for me, but has stated 1 several days ago and none since.

I've heard no other legitimate case against me. I fear that the scum are somehow manipulating the town into wasting the entire week on me and then getting a bandwagon going on someone else. I've even been playing into their hands by defending myself, but at the start of everyday, it comes right back on me.

We still have a lynch to waste (I believe). I'm sick of wasting the entire week defending myself and ending up the day with a rash lynch.

I beleive that Pleo, Hockey and Hawkeye are scum. I believe that no one will listen to me while I'm alive because no one seems to trust me.

So, the way I see it, the town has a better chance to win with me out of the picture. And, I still win if the town wins. So I'm walking toward the cliff. I think it only takes one or two more votes to nudge me over.

[Pleonast]

brewha, try making a case for those you think are scum. Vote for who you think is most suspicious. Give us some alternatives, something to go on if you're lynched or killed. Self-flagellation doesn't help us, if you're Town.

[brewha]

That's where I disagree. You should remember back when you didn't like my "lynch me or trust me" campaign.

Sadly, that's what it's boiled down to - and the 'trust me' part seems to be right out. If I had been lynched the first time the ball started rolling toward me, the rest of the town would have been able (for better or worse) to focus on someone other than me.

But, here I am, back in the spot light. And the town's gonna sit here and either say nothing or point the finger at me all day. Then, if history shows us anything, the votes are gonna swing in another direction at the last minute.

As far as making a case - I have. No one has really cared what I have to say. I'm guessing that no one cares to hear what the scum thinks.

Right now, I trust Hawkeyeop least. Followed by Hockey then you, Pleonast. The reasons have been stated but to sum up:

Hawkeye for putting scummy words in my mouth which as far as I can tell got most of the suspicion on me.

You and Hockey are suspicious to me for not voting Frued and for trying to get the vote back on me when the ball started rolling toward Frued.

If we lynch someone else today, we'll still spend tomorrow discussing my fate and not looking toward other suspicious characters. Sadly I'm in the position that there's no way in hell that the scum will night kill me since I've done such a good job of drawing suspicion away from them during the day.

So a big ppbbbbttthhh! ::tongue out thumb on nose:: to the scum since I am invincible to them!

[brewha]

Just a quick note in case I'm insta lynched overnight. My biggest evidence against scum was back at my first almost lynching - the one that resulted in a no lynch. Hockey Monkey pointed out that I must be scum or scum would've come in and hammered a lynch. I countered with the idea that the only way I wasn't lynched was that all the scum had already voted for me. I still believe that.

If I get lynched today, look at the people that voted me that day. The scum are there.

[brewha]

brewha, try making a case for those you think are scum. Vote for who you think is most suspicious. Give us some alternatives, something to go on if you're lynched or killed. Self-flagellation doesn't help us, if you're Town.

Oh and just a quick side note before I hit the sack for the night. Self-flagellation, implies that I am repenting for something I did wrong. That's not what I'm doing at all. Think of me more as dying for the greater good.

[Hawkeyeop]

I countered with the idea that the only way I wasn't lynched was that all the scum had already voted for me. I still believe that.

If I get lynched today, look at the people that voted me that day. The scum are there.

This theory is silly to me. Why would all the scum be that determined to kill Brewha? If Brewha isn't scum, it is still bad reasoning. A no lynch is perfectly pro scum.

Brewha why do you put so much stake in people voting for you as being scummy, but none in people who vote for known town members? You voted for Dio with admittably no rationalle. In your book, wouldn't this be a highly scummy thing to do.

[Hawkeyeop]

I'm rereading the thread to make a case against Brewha and something jumped out at me. I might have a bunch of these posts today.

Rysto was a vocal supporter of not revealing dossiers. Now we know there were scum on the other side of the issue, but I think it makes sense that the scum have one of their members argue strongly in favor of not revealing dossiers. There were others that were unsure what to do, but Rysto was the most vocal early proponent of not revealing. Rysto could have argued in favor of not revealing to gauge the town on how much support keeping the dossiers hidden would receive. Since the answer was not much, other scum joined in on the other side of the issue. Remember, now that Hal has been confirmed, we know that dossier revealing was purely protown, and that the scum knew that. I would also note that Rysto delayed revealing his dossier awhile.

[brewha]

This theory is silly to me. Why would all the scum be that determined to kill Brewha? If Brewha isn't scum, it is still bad reasoning. A no lynch is perfectly pro scum.

Brewha why do you put so much stake in people voting for you as being scummy, but none in people who vote for known town members? You voted for Dio with admittably no rationalle. In your book, wouldn't this be a highly scummy thing to do.

A no lynch is at best scum nuetral. It was said before that in a previous game, one guy was the scum hammer three times in a row and got away with it. Why let a townie go unlynched when it is perfectly within scum means to get two dead townies in one cycle?

I'm thinking that I'm messing with the great plan of the scum and Hawkeye and Pleo are trying to convince me to get back to the scheduled bumblefuck last minute voting that has been working pretty well for them.



On preview: You're trying to make a case against me? I thought you already had 17 reasons to vote me? What happened to those?

[Hawkeyeop]

A no lynch is at best scum nuetral. It was said before that in a previous game, one guy was the scum hammer three times in a row and got away with it. Why let a townie go unlynched when it is perfectly within scum means to get two dead townies in one cycle?


So you think you being lynched would be helpful to the town to rid them of the distraction, but you being alive is bad for the scum? You are contradicting yourself. The unlynched townie will still be a prime suspect the following day, which could the result in the scum getting 3 kills in 2 cycles without losing a single member.

On preview: You're trying to make a case against me? I thought you already had 17 reasons to vote me? What happened to those?

I'm summarizing them.

[brewha]

I am not contradicting myself, you are putting words in my mouth again. My being alive is very good for scum. The town has spent the last 3 or so days focusing on me and not on scum.

Scum wants me alive. All they need to do is kill enough town to match them in number. They don't need to kill all town, and the townies that have been deemed suspicious are the ones that the scum will keep around to distract the town from themselves.

This is not a bluff or a ploy. I'm not trying to convince anyone of my innocence by playing martyr. I am trying to get offed so the town have some hope of a chance to win.

But, judging by the recent participation, I don't think the town has a chance in hell.

[Hawkeyeop]

You are arguing that the scum want you alive. You are also anyone who voted for you is scummy and the only reason you weren't lynched was that the scum all already voted for you. That is very much a contradiction.

[Hawkeyeop]

You are arguing that the scum want you alive. You are also anyone who voted for you is scummy and the only reason you weren't lynched was that the scum all already voted for you. That is very much a contradiction.

EBWOP also arguing that anyone...

[brewha]

Oh, I see. That's a timeline issue. I what's up on the suspicious list until the first almost lynch/no lynch where I was one vote short. Up until then I was just any old townie. After that, I got put into the spotlight as the evil noose evader.

After that no lynch, the scum were better off to pick someone other than me, so the town could keep their focus on me. Then I'd argue my way out of death everyday, and the vote would swing wildly at the last second which is very much in the favor of scum.

Only by pure skill of Storyteller were we able to get the vote swung in the right direction once.

Also, I did the math. Assuming that there are 3 scum remaining, we get one more free lynch screw up. Anything after that ensures that we lose. I'm not so sure I want to waste the last one on me.

Unvote Brewha
If I still get lynch, NBD. Just know that we only get one more screw up.


Vote Hawkeyeop
Based on falsifiying my statements and based on voting history that I've already covered.

[brewha]

EBWOP

what's=wasn't

[Pleonast]

I'm thinking that I'm messing with the great plan of the scum and Hawkeye and Pleo are trying to convince me to get back to the scheduled bumblefuck last minute voting that has been working pretty well for them.What are you even talking about? I've been laying out my arguments and voting, and then asking everyone else to do the same. Are you holding a grudge because I've voted for you? That's a great way to let the Scum win.

I switch my vote to you on Day 3 because I saw you as suspicious and was willing to lynch you over having no lynch. I then voted for you on Day 4 because the Freud vote was a huge last-minute bandwagon. We got lucky on that, and I was wrong.

After that, I rebooted my scumdar--you know taking into account new information and letting go of past grudges. Exactly what we need to do to win. I tried pushing the conversation away from you, but you took exception to that and complained about it. You keep playing the martyr and have only made weak cases against others. And your vote for Dio smells far more of "bumblefuck last minute voting" than any of mine.

I'm not sure if you're a frustrated Townie who's given up on winning the game, or a Scum has kept themself in the spotlight (probably with the help of a buddy who conveniently keeps bringing you up). You certainly haven't contributed much to the Town cause.

On preview: thank you for contributing. I think your wrong about Hawk (based on my own analysis), but at least your trying.

[Pleonast]

On preview: thank you for contributing. I think your wrong about Hawk (based on my own analysis), but at least your trying.
Not edited: this is what I get for not previewing my preview. :smack:

[brewha]

There's no grudges here. It's just a game that I would very much like to win. It's not that you voted for me that causes me to cast suspicion on you. It's that when the vote started swinging towards Frued - who turned out to be scum - you tried to get the focus back on me.

I don't care what you say - that looks scummy.

Yes, I am very much frustrated with this game and I do almost want to just give up. The frustration is caused by the town doing the same thing everyday. "Look! Brewha's scum!" Then I get a few votes. Then nothing is said for the rest of the game day until a few hours before lynch time. Then everyone scrambles to vote for someone and nothing good comes of it. It looks to be happening again today. And I see no reason to believe that it's not going to happen again tomorrow.

What can I do about it? Most of the suspicion that has been cast on me is a direct result of my 'over-participation'. So, how do I make a case against someone without posting? Better still, how can I make a case against those who don't post. I can't. The lack of participation is going to be the downfall of the town.

[Pleonast]

By my count, here are the suspicion lists. This is based off my readings of your posts, please make corrections and/or elaborate.

Hockey => brewha, Hazel, Rysto
zuma => Hazel, brewha
Hazel => brewha, Rysto
brewha => Hawkeye, Hockey, Pleonast
Hawkeye => brewha
Pleonast => Hazel
sach => Hazel, brewha
Rysto => ???
faithfool => ??? no posts toDay

Actual votes:
brewha <= Hockey, Hawkeye, sach
Hazel <= Pleonast
Hawkeye <= brewha

Rysto and faithfool: please help us out. Who do you think is suspicious?

Everyone: can everyone either vote or state explicitly who they will vote for (keeping in mind we do not want any quick lynches)?

[Hawkeyeop]

By my count, here are the suspicion lists. This is based off my readings of your posts, please make corrections and/or elaborate.

Hockey => brewha, Hazel, Rysto
zuma => Hazel, brewha
Hazel => brewha, Rysto
brewha => Hawkeye, Hockey, Pleonast
Hawkeye => brewha
Pleonast => Hazel
sach => Hazel, brewha
Rysto => ???
faithfool => ??? no posts toDay

Actual votes:
brewha <= Hockey, Hawkeye, sach
Hazel <= Pleonast
Hawkeye <= brewha

Rysto and faithfool: please help us out. Who do you think is suspicious?

Everyone: can everyone either vote or state explicitly who they will vote for (keeping in mind we do not want any quick lynches)?

Rysto would be #2 choice to lynch.

[Hockey Monkey]

I'm contemplating switching my vote over to Rysto right now. The dossier reveal stance bothers me, but his vote on Diomedes is the cincher for me. Brewha, you have made some compelling pleas that are sounding more and more townie to me, and I would be willing to spare you in favor of either Rysto or Hazel today, so long as we don't consider you "confirmed" if we do so. You are still very very high on my suspect list. I still don't see how you are still alive if you are town.

[brewha]

Well that's the bitch of it - the only way to be confirmed town is to die. We have only one mislynch left and wasting it on me would not be the best choice at this point.

I'm certainly not saying you can't lynch me - my life and work would be much simpler if you did - I'm just not going to encourage it.

It's become painfully obvious to me that the players that I'm most heavily pointing fingers at are the players that are participating the most. Rysto has participated very little and not said much when he has posted. I'd be willing to vote for him under the premise that if you are town and you are not participating you are partially to blame for our loss.

Here's a tidy package for everyone:
Rysto
HaznelnutCoffee
Faithfool

I get the feeling that these three have been posting just enough to be seen as posting, but never really saying anything. I believed Hal's claim to know Faithfool's dossier info - so I've been just kinda ignoring her. But, she has done nothing to gain (or for that matter betray) my trust. Which is actually the perfect thing to do if you are scum.


The rest of us have been posting consistently and consistently pointing fingers at each other (mostly me at all of you and all of you at me). Perfect for the scum - if those three listed above are the scum and the rest of us aren't.

Unvote Hawkeyeop

Rysto has been most consistently inconspicious - I'm comfortable with chucking him over the cliff.

[Idle Thoughts]

For a Day that's ending today (?) , it's sure quiet in here.

[zuma]

The day ends sunday.

[Idle Thoughts]

Oh.





Scraaaaatch that then! :smack:

[Rysto]

I have a deadline tomorrow. Don't expect much out of me before then.

[zuma]

Everyone: can everyone either vote or state explicitly who they will vote for (keeping in mind we do not want any quick lynches)?

HazelNutCoffee for reasons previously stated.
I also plan on going back and taking a look at sachertorte before the day is out. I can't really put my finger on anything beyond a general uneasiness, so I want to put that one to bed one way or another.

[HazelNutCoffee]

Sorry - I need to catch up on today and yesterday. Thank God tomorrow is Friday - have no classes to teach, so I'll catch up and post my vote tomorrow.

[faithfool]

I swear this has been the most screwed up time for me to try posting. :mad: Anyway, I apologize to everyone for not having been able to get on. The computer has died where I'm staying at and I'm only able to temporarily borrow a friend's laptop. Hopefully, they'll get the damn thing back up and running tomorrow, but it doesn't look promising. I'll do my best to keep y'all updated.

Anyway, as of the moment I'm going to stick with my vote for brewha because, although I feel their pain about constantly being under the microscope, I wonder why we haven't lynched before if it's always that close. I guess the 'if there's smoke, there must be fire' approach is setting off warning bells, especially if everyone now shifts focus to someone else due to a self-vote. Or at least, if I understood it correctly, that's what was thought of me.

[faithfool]

Shit.



vote brewha

[zuma]

I guess the 'if there's smoke, there must be fire' approach is setting off warning bells, especially if everyone now shifts focus to someone else due to a self-vote. Or at least, if I understood it correctly, that's what was thought of me.

So should we vote for you too, since you self-voted?

[zuma]

vote: HazelNutCoffee, who I find much more suspicious than brewha, especially factoring in vote history. I will switch my vote to anyone who starts the clock early and/or hammers.

[Hawkeyeop]

Things I've learned while rereading the thread part two.

So I'm through page 12 on my reread. Brewha, thus far, has seemed more town then scummy, which is pretty impressive given that I am having trouble not reading his posts as confirmed scum. The only things that he has did early on that hit my scum radar are not having a unique trait (only OAOW shared this fact) and his claiming to have to discovered a secret pattern. Storyteller rightly points out that there was no reason for Brewha to reveal his knowledge of the pattern until after all the dossiers were revealed, and I don't think his answer to this were satisfactory.

The other thing that caught my eye was Sach stating:
(My personal opinion is that Santo Rugger's killer lied about his/her dossier and did not state the VW bug characteristic).

We know now that this was not true and OAOW was honest about this trait. Now, it is certainly possible for Sach to have that opinion without any additional knowledge. I don't want to discount the possibly that Sach new OAOW didn't lie though, and wished to push the conversation away from OAOW.

[zuma]

Hawk, I've read through day 1, and something doesn't ring right with sach to me. I think it's because he played M5 as town, when I was scum, and we had these debates about killing him, because he was so active, so agressive, and was usually right. I'm just not getting the same impression from him in this game.

That said, I've only read through day 1 so far, and can't really fault him for anything particularly scummy yet. But this just doesn't look like the same one who played in M5. sach is just someone that needs to be looked at. He's kind of an enigma for me so far. It's not really fair to sach that I keep throwing nebulous suspicion at him, but there we are. I won't be voting for him today, though.

Also, I am back to agreeing that brewha doesn't bother me at this point. I was concerned about the day 5 votes, but reading brewha's posts, and his voting history, leave him off my lynch list for today. I'm good with HNC, still based on voting history. Also, if brewha were scum, it would mean that 3 out of the first 4 Mhaye voters were scum. (4 of 4 if you think I am scum), which I just think is improbable. At this time I'd vote for a lot of people before brewha.

I'm also not sure how far I'm willing to forgive faithfool for her newbiness. She's been at it a while now, and I'd like to see some better analysis from her.

People I'm very worried about right now:

HNC
sachertorte
rysto
faithfool

I hope to have something more substantial tomorrow. But these four just bother me, with HNC far and away the most troublesome.

[Rysto]

It's a snow day and the re-read begins.

Has it always said "Abandon all hope, ye who enter here" on Page 1?

[zuma]

It's probably too late to look at this now, but early in the game Freudian said that she trusted Dio but really had nothing to back it up with. Now that we know that she was scum, it looks to me like the kind of mistake a newer player could make. He's also been voting aggressively, and I'm not sure that's pro-Town

Rysto, nice to see you around.

Did you really believe that freudian would make a scum slip saying that a fellow scum was trusted? This seems like a silly argument. A scum would not make this kind of "mistake". Also, what did you mean by "voting aggressively". If you mean putting votes on record early, that seems like something a townie would do.

Also, Rysto, I apologize for being aggressive, but you've been largely absent here, and you're rising to the forefront of my suspicions.

Why did you vote Diomedes with no reason other than "let's get this bandwagon rolling"?

Based on voting history, who do you find most scummy?

Based on anything other than voting history, who do you find most scummy?

[Hockey Monkey]

unvote brewha I don't want any accidental hammers, and I'm still contemplating my Rysto vote.

[zuma]

And it would be nice if some other players here would ask some questions of others. Ask me anything. Ask someone else anything. The silence is deafening.

[zuma]

brewha: You've made a case against hawkeye and others based just on their accusations against you. While that's all well and good if you are town, I'd like to hear some of your suspicions and cases made against people based not on their attacks on you, but on their actions and voting history. Or maybe just a gut feel reaction. Leaving aside all attacks on you, who do you find most scummy?

[zuma]

Hawkeye: I'd like to hear three reasons we're to believe you are not scum. With links if necessary.

This is a rather arbitrary question aimed at an arbitrary player, but I think we need to start asking questions and see how people defend them.

I of course welcome all questions aimed at me.

[zuma]

sachertorte: You've agreed with my theory that HNC and brewha are probably not both town. What led you to vote for brewha over HNC?

[Rysto]

I haven't completed a re-read yet(I've been going over toDay to try to get a feeling for players I might want to take a closer look at), but I figure I might as well give some partial answers to zuma while I'm here,

Did you really believe that freudian would make a scum slip saying that a fellow scum was trusted? This seems like a silly argument. A scum would not make this kind of "mistake".
What I meant was she might have been trying to help establish that a fellow scum was Town. I have in fact seen this kind of thing before: in Mafia 2, you may recall that the Town was doing trust/mistrust lists on Day 1. One scum put another scum(I think it was Kat) on her trust list for basically no reason at all -- Kat had hardly posted at that point. Now, this isn't the kind of thing that an experienced player would try, but I knew that Freudian was only playing her second game.

In retrospect, I put too much stock in Freudian being a newer player. She may well have been trying for the opposite of what I assumed: trying to drag a Townie down with her if she was ever revealed as scum.

Also, what did you mean by "voting aggressively". If you mean putting votes on record early, that seems like something a townie would do.
By "voting aggressively", I meant pushing hard for some bandwagons that I really didn't like. faithfool's was the biggest one -- I never bought the theory that she was scum who had slipped up in Night Zero. So to me, it looked like somebody trying to railroad a new player, and he kept going back to the well.

Also, Rysto, I apologize for being aggressive, but you've been largely absent here, and you're rising to the forefront of my suspicions.
I would not consider asking me about my motivations and thoughts being aggressive. Just the opposite, in fact. You've gone back and looked at what I posted near the end of Day 5, instead of cherry-picking quotes from me to smudge me.

Why did you vote Diomedes with no reason other than "let's get this bandwagon rolling"?
My reasons were in the post you just quoted. I posted my suspicions of Dio because I was hoping that other people might be amenable to the idea. When Hazel voted for him, I decided to see if there was support for the idea.

Hence the second part of that post, where I said that I was waiting to see the Town move towards a majority, and was willing to be the hammer if necessary. Dio was one of the few players I had real suspicions of, so I went with it.

Based on voting history, who do you find most scummy?
Dunno. Ask me again after my re-read.

Based on anything other than voting history, who do you find most scummy?
Hawkeyeop. He's smudging me because starting the bandwagon against Dio makes me an easy target, but note that he refuses to actually get a vote on the record. He was right behind me on the Dio bandwagon, too, and notice that in his vote he immediately tried to distance himself from it:
Brewha doesn't seem to be getting much support, so I'll again switch to the most popular candidate that isn't Hazel. I think Hazel is town, and I can go either way on Dio. Consider this more a not Hazel vote then anything else.
The only other thing he's brought up against me is that on Day 1, I was opposed to dossier reveals. Wow, a notoriously skittish and conservative Mafia player is against a mass-reveal? Now there's a revelation.

I'm also not liking that I'm seeing more of the same from Hockey Monkey. Lots of talk, no votes on the record.

[Rysto]

NETA: Oh, and to head off any accusation of not practicing what I preach:

Vote Hawkeyeop

[Hockey Monkey]

I'm also not liking that I'm seeing more of the same from Hockey Monkey. Lots of talk, no votes on the record.


What game are you reading? I started the day with a vote on the record! Do I need to make or change my vote every time I am considering my options? The statement you gave above seems intentionally misleading. I don't see how you can say I've had no votes on the record. I just unvoted brewha not more than an hour or so ago.

So, I'll replace that one now.

vote Rysto

[Pleonast]

To let everyone know: I'm short on time today, and probably won't be able to get on much this weekend. Looks like I'm going to a Superbowl party on Sunday at the end the Day. I hope we can decide on what to do before then.

I've given my detailed voting analysis. The results were
1) Hazel has been voting in a very pro-Scum manner. Doesn't mean she is scum, but I tend to put more weight on actions than words. And she has a clear pattern of voting in a way consistent with scum. That's where my vote is and will likely stay.
2) zuma and Hawkeye have been voting in a pro-Town manner. No guarantees, but I think they're more likely to be Town than Scum. I'm definitely not voting for them toDay. Too risky, when we have only one mislynch remaining.
3) Everyone else has no clear voting pattern. I'll give my gut reaction to each:
brewha: The no-lynch on Day 3 is suspicious, but his reactions to that and the result of the Freud lynch have mostly convinced me that he's a Townie that flaked out with frustration and paranoia. Or a scum with excellent acting skill. ;)
faith: My initial assessment was Hal and faith were a scum pair, but that's obviously wrong. Given that Hal did in fact confirm faith's Dossier as truthful, I'm inclined to think faith is probably Town, since giving one of us the Dossier of a Scum would be rather imbalancing. However, I'm still not convinced there isn't some other component of the Secret that we don't know yet. faith could be Scum, balanced by some other Secret we haven't found yet. Unlikely, but I want to keep my mind open.
Hockey and sach: Have both been playing good games, putting out good arguments and engaging in the game. Mixed voting records. Truthfully, I don't have a good read on either of them. Could be Town playing with imperfect knowledge, or Scum playing pro-Town.
Rysto: Rather lurky. Again, I don't have a good read, which is not good for me. I have to lump in with Hockey and sach simply because I know there's three scum left, probably two in this group if Hazel is scum.

My list of suspicion:
Most likely scum: Hazel
Likely scum: Hockey, sach, Rysto
Unlikely scum: brewha, faith
Least likely scum: zuma, Hawkeye

[Hawkeyeop]

Hawkeyeop.

[sarcasm on]

Hey, who would of thunk it, a person I state suspicion of now thinks I'm scummy.


He's smudging me because starting the bandwagon against Dio makes me an easy target, but note that he refuses to actually get a vote on the record. He
was right behind me on the Dio bandwagon, too, and notice that in his vote he immediately tried to distance himself from it:


Ah. I got it. We shouldn't vote for people who do scummy things, because they are an easy target. Take some initiative, vote for people who don't do appear scummy at all. [sarcasm off] I explained the reasoning of my vote, take it for what you will. As for not voting for you, notice I have someone higher on my to lynch list. Sorry, you are only number 2, but on the bright side my desire to lynch is growing.

The only other thing he's brought up against me is that on Day 1, I was opposed to dossier reveals. Wow, a notoriously skittish and conservative Mafia player is against a mass-reveal? Now there's a revelation.


Hey, you can do sarcasm too. Nice. How bout this? [Sarcasm back on] I don't know how I missed that quality about you in the vast number of games we have played together.

I'm also not liking that I'm seeing more of the same from Hockey Monkey. Lots of talk, no votes on the record.

Yeah, I mean we took forever to get votes on the table today. I remember Zuma complaining that we need to get votes on the record or he would burst.

[zuma]

Pleo, I agree with your assessments and it is my hope we look at voting records.

I will, however, disagree with you on one minor point

[QUOTE=Pleonast]
Hockey and sach: Have both been playing good games, putting out good arguments and engaging in the game. Mixed voting records. Truthfully, I don't have a good read on either of them. Could be Town playing with imperfect knowledge, or Scum playing pro-Town[ /QUOTE]

I read Hockey as town and sach as scum. No vote either way for either of them.

I wish to see HNC lynched, and if not, sach.

[zuma]

Everything old is new again, and I screw up my tags.

Hawkeye, please answer my question. Give us three reasons why we should believe you are town.

[Rysto]

What game are you reading? I started the day with a vote on the record! Do I need to make or change my vote every time I am considering my options? The statement you gave above seems intentionally misleading. I don't see how you can say I've had no votes on the record. I just unvoted brewha not more than an hour or so ago.
Excuse me for not being clear. I was FOS'ing you for smudging me but not voting me.

[Rysto]

Now this is interesting. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9275929&postcount=320)

On the other hand, I also think there may be a hidden mechanic that allows the scum to use this information to their advantage which is what has kept me from being 100% behind this idea.

Care to explain this one, Hawkeyeop? You're smudging me for doing exactly as you have done. This clinches it for me. You're scum, and you're looking for any excuse to string me up you can find.

[Rysto]

NETA: In that quote, Hawkeyeop is expressing misgivings about dossier reveals. That's not clear from the snippit I quoted, but it is clear in the post I linked to.

[Hawkeyeop]

Everything old is new again, and I screw up my tags.

Hawkeye, please answer my question. Give us three reasons why we should believe you are town.

Zuma, I don't know how to answer it. I think my record speaks for itself. I'm not going to go through it and say I think this vote or reason is particularly townlike. Unless people will have specific reasons against me that require explanation or rebuttal, I'd rather focus my time on figuring out the roles of everyone else and convincing others to agree with me. No one has voted for me for any reason other then that they didn't like my reasoning for voting for them. (Except Storyteller's vote that he quickly retracted and Hal's who's I probably deserved)
So regardless of you are using vote history, dossier info, or post history, there is no evidence against me.

[Hawkeyeop]

NETA: In that quote, Hawkeyeop is expressing misgivings about dossier reveals. That's not clear from the snippit I quoted, but it is clear in the post I linked to.

I was unsure of what to do. I later decided that I favored revealing. You were a vocal opponent early on and delayed your reveal. There is a difference.

[Rysto]

I was unsure of what to do. I later decided that I favored revealing. You were a vocal opponent early on and delayed your reveal.
Yeah, I delayed revealing until it was clear that there was a consensus from the Town that it was the right thing to do. That's all that I was waiting for back then.

And before you ask, no, I wasn't waiting for people to reveal before me. All that I wanted to see is that the Town was in favour of a reveal, and that it wasn't just a loud minority.

[zuma]

This may be misguided, but...

I am going back to day 5 votes. HNC and brewha were in the lead and Diomedes got lynched.

The Diomedes lynch saved someone. If it didn't, we're fucked either way.

I don't think it saved brewha as much as I think it saved HNC. HNC is clearly the scummiest based on voting records. If you want me to list them I will.

If you think brewha is scummier than HNC you must accept that 3 out of 4 scum were the first votes on Mhaye day 1. I don't buy that at all.

I'd be ok with a sach lynch, but I think HNC is clearly the way to go today. These randome throw-around votes make me suspicious. I think we need to right now think about the diomedes lynch and look at HNC and brewha. And I think brewha is town.

[Hawkeyeop]

Zuma,

Do you oppose a Rysto lynch?

[zuma]

Rysto and Hockeyeop, if none of you are getting lynched today, who would you vote for?

[zuma]

Zuma,

Do you oppose a Rysto lynch?

Yes. I have problems with sach and rysto. But I think a HNC lynch is more likely to take out scum. My lynch candidates, in order, are HNC, sach, rysto.

[Hawkeyeop]

Rysto and Hockeyeop, if none of you are getting lynched today, who would you vote for?

Brewha, but I think you knew that.

My current order is

Brewha
Rysto
Sach
Pleo
Zuma
Hazel
Hockey Monkey

I don't think there is any reason to assume the scum wouldn't do something unexpected on day one.

[brewha]

I'm heading outta town for the weekend, but should be back in time on Sun before the lynch and I may have internet access on Sat.

I'm leaning towards Rysto, HNC, and Faithfool as scum.

[Hawkeyeop]

Things I've learned while rereading the thread part three:

I continue to find Hockey Monkey and Hazel not scummy.

Hockey Monkey thought that any player without a unique trait was fishy. There was no real reason to believe this, but she argued it anyway. We know at least one of those two individuals were scum. Brewha being scum would, in my mind, confirm Hockey as town. Even if only OAOW ends up being town, I still find it unlikely a scum would have pushed so hard for lynching of individuals with unique traits.

People have brought up the first Hazel vote, but again I don't find it scummy. When she posted her "non vote" we were already at a majority. A OAOW vote from Hazel would of only accomplished risking a speed lynch.

[Rysto]

I've completed my re-read, and I don't have a heck of a lot. One of the problems with this game is that once you start to think that a certain player looks scummy, you run into confirmation bias problems. You can talk yourself into almost anything looking scummy. So here's what I'm going to. I'll re-read again and start taking notes on the marginally scummy things that I see. I'll post them, but with the understanding that I know that what I'm posting is weak evidence at best. You guys read through what I've got, keep in mind that I'm probably putting the worst possible spin on things, and decide.

Now, zuma asked me who I felt was scummiest based on vote patterns. This isn't exactly my forte, but there's definitely something that sticks out at me. Here are the final vote tallies (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9414596&postcount=1307), as collected by zuma. Hawkeyeop has voted with the majority every day. He's a bandwagoner, and notice that he only voted for Freud when it became obvious that she was going to hang(full disclosure: my vote came in 5 minutes before his. Still, at 5-4 Freud's lynch was not a sure thing at the time).

Based on everything I've seen, especially today, here's how my suspicions lie:

Certain is scum
Hawkeyeop

Very Suspicious Of
Hockey Monkey

Could Go Either Way
sachertorte
HazelNutCoffee

If They're Scum Why Do the Scum Keep Harping on Them?
brewha
faithfool

Strongly Pro-Town
Pleonast
zuma

I Know that I'm Town
Rysto

[Rysto]

Oh, and to be clear sach and Hazel are in the "Could Go Either Way" category because I have strong pro-town feelings from those below them on the list and strong scum feelings from those above them. Those two are the two I don't have a proper read on at the moment. By the process of elimination I'm certain that the last scum is in that group, but I don't have any strong feelings about either.

[sachertorte]

Hawk, I've read through day 1, and something doesn't ring right with sach to me. I think it's because he played M5 as town, when I was scum, and we had these debates about killing him, because he was so active, so agressive, and was usually right. I'm just not getting the same impression from him in this game.
I don't doubt that I'm playing very differently than in M5. M5 was my first game. I was much more active in the beginning. I'm pretty sure you can map my declining participation level from M5 through The Conspiracy and through this game itself.
I have a very different impression of my M5 game. My recollection is that I was right about NAF, and that was pretty much it. I distinctly remember being dead wrong about Kyrie Eleison. Also wrong about fluiddruid, Scuba_Ben, and Queuing.

sachertorte: You've agreed with my theory that HNC and brewha are probably not both town. What led you to vote for brewha over HNC?
My suspicions of brewha include his Day One behavior which I have trouble reconciling from a logical townie perspective.
In addition brewha escaped Day 3, which combined with Day 5's makes brewha my prime candidate.

The main argument against HazelNutCoffee that I find compelling is the Day 5 vote dynamic which implicates both brewha and HazelNutCoffee. I see the scumminess in how the vote developed around HazelNutCoffee. I do not see the scumminess in HazelNutCoffee's voting history. I'm fine with lynching HazelNutCoffee based on Day 5, but brewha's Day 1 and Day 3 in addition to Day 5 push brewha ahead of HazelNutCoffee for me.

[Hawkeyeop]

To anyone voting (or considering) Hazel:

Why would she vote for Dio when there were other town members already with votes? If her main goal was to not get lynched, shouldn't she have picked someone who already had a vote on them?

Sach,

Do you have thoughts on Rysto? If you have already expressed them, can you point me to where they are?

[NAF1138]

Hey, I need to get you guys a vote count. Sorry one hasn't come sooner, but I have been really sick all week.

3 - brewha (hawk, sach, faithfool)

2 - HazelNutCoffee (Pleo, zuma)

1 - Hawkeyeop (rysto)
1 - Rysto (HM)


The Day ends on Sunday. 5 votes starts the clock, 6 will end the Day.

[Rysto]

I had a thought this morning about dossiers. Specifically, I was wondering how it was the Freudian had such a normal-looking dossier when it very much seems that she was a killer who lied about it. So I asked myself, "If I were scum, how would I lie about my dossier to make the lie plausible?" And the answer hit me: mix up the scum dossiers. There are 5 scum dossiers and 5 private traits, so each silent pig chooses 1 private trait from each dossier. It's perfect. Each silent pig has a perfectly legitimate-looking dossier, because their dossier is made up of nothing but real traits, and they didn't have to copy from a townie's dossier. But each scum also has plausible deniability for night-kills, because it's very likely that different scum will match traits from different night-kills.

Is my explanation clear enough? Maybe a quick example will clarify what I mean. Let's say we have five scum: A, B, C, D and E. Each scum has 1 public trait(Ap, Bp, etc) and 5 private traits(for A: A1, A2, A3, A4, A5).

Scum A would claim private traits A1,B1, C1, D1 and E1. Scum B would claim A2, B2, C2, D2 and E2. And so on.

So let's say A is the night killer. Night 1, one of his traits is revealed; let's say it was A2. Night 2, another trait is revealed, maybe A1. Scum B can say, "See? I'm not the killer; I don't have trait A1." Scum A can say that's he's not the killer because he doesn't have trait A2. Plausible deniability. Unless you're OAOW, the unluckiest scum in the world, and on night 0 A1 gets chosen and on night 1 Ap gets chosen.

Night 1: I once drove a VW Bug through the front door of a 7/11.(OAOW)
Night 2: I've had sex underneath the Washington Monument. (OAOW, Kat)
Night 3: I've eaten grilled cow udder more than once. (sachertorte, OAOW)
Night 4: I once drove a VW Bug through the front door of a 7/11. (Hockey Monkey)
Night 5: My great-great-grandfather was a duke in Sicily. (zuma, HazelNutCoffee)
Night 6: I believe that homosexuals should be allowed to be as miserable as straight couples. If they want to get married, let them. (Hal)

...

Well, fuck. And I was so excited about this theory, too.

[Rysto]

NETA: Obviously the Night 1 and Night 4 traits match both Hockey Monkey and OAOW.

[zuma]

I am now going to argue against a brewha lynch, again.

Going over day 1 votes, I find it incredibly unlikely that 3 out of the first 4 mhaye voters would be scum. It'd be something I've never seen before on day one of mafia. And, while faithfool piled up early votes, MHaye and I were gaining votes.

The MHaye votes went like this:

OAOW
zuma
brewha
freudian slit

brewha had an easy out voting for either me, or more likely a throwaway. And if brewha were scum, placing a third vote on MHaye, I doubt freudian would come in and place a fourth vote. brewha as scum making that vote makes no sense.

This bears repeating. Scum placing 3 out of the first 4 votes on the day 1 lynch would be something I have never witnessed before.

If you agree with me that brewha and HNC are probably not both town, HNC seems to me the easiest one to lynch, based on voting history described by Pleonast, which I agree with.

I would also support a rysto, sach, or faithfool lynch.

And brewha I'm tired of doing your homework for you :)

I'm by no means a decent mafia player, while being town. I think I'm ok as scum, as I have a bit of an evil streak in me heh. But as town, all I've ever done is try to be as open as possible (and it got me killed on day one more than a few times), and have learned to look at throwaway votes, vote patterns, and whatnot as potential scum tells.

I'm town, and I think brewha would be a terrible, terrible lynch candidate today. So I think Day 5 is very important, and HNC is the better candidate of the two.

Good god I hope I'm not looking like an idiot on the spoiler boards right now :I

We now have 24 hours to lynch and I think we need to get our votes in.

[zuma]

I have a very different impression of my M5 game. My recollection is that I was right about NAF, and that was pretty much it.

Well, it was NAF who kept on about killing you. I'll give you that. However the change in playing style continues to give me pause. Now I want you dead :)

Why can't I quit you, sach?

[zuma]

This question is for sachertorte:

What do you think of my argument that brewha would be less likely to be scum than HNC, based on my analysis that it would be unlikely to assume that 3 out of the first four mhaye voters on day one would be scum. It's on record that you agree with my opinion that brewha and HNC are unlikely to both be town.

[brewha]

I'm really torn on who to vote for. The only thing I have concluded is that Zuma is town. I'm a very unpopular person to back and if Zuma were scum it'd be easy to convince others to lynch me.

I trust Zuma and I'm going to go along with Dio's lynch saving scum. So,

Vote HazelNutCoffee

Sorry to say, but this vote from me is set in stone. I'll likely not have internet access again until after the day is over.

[zuma]

My suspicions of brewha include his Day One behavior which I have trouble reconciling from a logical townie perspective.
In addition brewha escaped Day 3, which combined with Day 5's makes brewha my prime candidate.

The main argument against HazelNutCoffee that I find compelling is the Day 5 vote dynamic which implicates both brewha and HazelNutCoffee. I see the scumminess in how the vote developed around HazelNutCoffee. I do not see the scumminess in HazelNutCoffee's voting history. I'm fine with lynching HazelNutCoffee based on Day 5, but brewha's Day 1 and Day 3 in addition to Day 5 push brewha ahead of HazelNutCoffee for me.

sach, I'm having trouble with your logic here. I am sorry to keep hammering you on this, but I now want to ask you what it was about brewha's day one behavior which bothers you. His attack on me? That seems to me to be something scum would not do as I have outlined before.

Also, you say you do not see the scumminess in HNC voting history. You disagree with the vote history analysis, which, to me looks like a scum voting history. Frankly, HNC voting history leaves a lot to be desired, to say the least

[Rysto]

I think that the assumption that either brewha or Hazel must be scum is an entirely unwarranted. Suppose neither of them were scum. Then it doesn't matter what happens: Dio is lynched, brewha is lynches, Hazel gets lynched, or there's no lynch. All of these outcomes are equally good for the scum. If that's the case, it's very hard to draw any conclusions about what the scum would do: they'd most likely just do their best to stay unnoticed.

Just think about this. Dio lynch makes just as much sense if neither brewha or Hazel are scum.

[Hawkeyeop]

Going over day 1 votes, I find it incredibly unlikely that 3 out of the first 4 mhaye voters would be scum. It'd be something I've never seen before on day one of mafia. And, while faithfool piled up early votes, MHaye and I were gaining votes.

So since you haven't seen it before it can't be true? Why wouldn't the scum vote in that matter? Because it looks too scummy? Obviously not, as you are convinced that this action alone makes it impossible that Brewha is scum. The scum know what analysis is used to find them. Why wouldn't they want to trip us up by doing things like this?


The MHaye votes went like this:
OAOW
zuma
brewha
freudian slit


It is nice how your analysis eliminates you as a suspect too. Maybe Brewha and you are both scum and you tried a trick right out of the gate. Is that why you are so determined to use voting analysis?



If you agree with me that brewha and HNC are probably not both town, HNC seems to me the easiest one to lynch, based on voting history described by Pleonast, which I agree with.

Can you answer my question above on why Hazel would vote for Dio instead of someone who already had votes on them?

[brewha]

I think that the assumption that either brewha or Hazel must be scum is an entirely unwarranted. Suppose neither of them were scum. Then it doesn't matter what happens: Dio is lynched, brewha is lynches, Hazel gets lynched, or there's no lynch. All of these outcomes are equally good for the scum. If that's the case, it's very hard to draw any conclusions about what the scum would do: they'd most likely just do their best to stay unnoticed.

Just think about this. Dio lynch makes just as much sense if neither brewha or Hazel are scum.

The way I see it, it would be much easier for scum to add their votes to a front runner than it would be to get someone else lynched. Since I do a great job of diverting suspicion away from the real scum, they didn't see the point in lynching me, and since HNC is scum, they didn't want to lynch her.

The only other option was to 'get a bandwagon rolling' on someone else. I'm feeling pretty good about a HNC lynch.

[Rysto]

I forgot the second half of that. I think that zuma has offered a very good analysis of why brewha is unlikely to be scum. Given that, Hazel's vote for Dio makes very little sense if she's scum. A vote for brewha to save herself from a lynch is easy to defend. Trying to start a new bandwagon with mere hours to go is a lot harder to understand from scum. A townie, on the other hand, would want to vote for someone who they felt was scummy. This is a team game, after all, and killing off someone who you to believe to be on your team is not the path to success.

So, based on Day 5, I believe that Hazel could only be scum if brewha were scum, and I just don't believe that brewha is scum.

Actually, this "one or the other must be scum" is a very good argument for the scum. Lynch one, discover that they aren't scum, say "Then it must have been the other one", lynch the other, bingo, game over. I am not at all happy to see that the leading candidates are brewha and Hazel.

[Hawkeyeop]

The way I see it, it would be much easier for scum to add their votes to a front runner than it would be to get someone else lynched. Since I do a great job of diverting suspicion away from the real scum, they didn't see the point in lynching me, and since HNC is scum, they didn't want to lynch her.

The only other option was to 'get a bandwagon rolling' on someone else. I'm feeling pretty good about a HNC lynch.

Brewha,

Can you also answer my question above on why Hazel would vote Dio instead of someone who already had votes? If it is easier to "vote for a front runner" why would Hazel pick an entirely new target?

[brewha]

I would bet that Hazel's vote was intended to be a throw away. She was voting for someone who she thought wouldn't get lynched. If she voted for me, and I got lynched, she knew that it would implicate her as scum when I turned up as town. If she votes for someone without votes, and someone else gets lynched, she is free of added suspicion.

[zuma]

The only other option was to 'get a bandwagon rolling' on someone else. I'm feeling pretty good about a HNC lynch.

Alright. No matter brewha's alignment, that statement was LOL funny.

[zuma]

I think that the assumption that either brewha or Hazel must be scum is an entirely unwarranted. Suppose neither of them were scum. Then it doesn't matter what happens: Dio is lynched, brewha is lynches, Hazel gets lynched, or there's no lynch. All of these outcomes are equally good for the scum. If that's the case, it's very hard to draw any conclusions about what the scum would do: they'd most likely just do their best to stay unnoticed.

Just think about this. Dio lynch makes just as much sense if neither brewha or Hazel are scum.

Rysto, If, yesterday, unknowns dio, HNC, and brewha were all town, we've already lost. The late Dio votes are the best I have to go with. I think the assumption should be warrented, otherwise we're dead either way.

I continue to draw conclusions based on vote patterns, the very strange dio lynch and my maybe flawed conclusion that brewha as scum makes no sense, well, should I stop this bandwagon rolling?

[zuma]

It is nice how your analysis eliminates you as a suspect too. Maybe Brewha and you are both scum and you tried a trick right out of the gate. Is that why you are so determined to use voting analysis?
Yes. You caught us.

[Rysto]

Rysto, If, yesterday, unknowns dio, HNC, and brewha were all town, we've already lost. The late Dio votes are the best I have to go with. I think the assumption should be warrented, otherwise we're dead either way.
That's a dangerous way of thinking. "We can't win if this is true, therefore it can't be true"? I've seen that one backfire massively in the past(see: "if storyteller is scum we've lost, so I trust storyteller" from Mafia 2).

Examine your assumption. I've yet to hear a reasonable explanation for how brewha could be town, Hazel could be scum and Hazel not vote for brewha. I don't believe brewha's explanation that the scum want him alive. I agree that the scum have been milking the brewha bandwagon for all that it's worth to distract the town, but for the scum, better a dead Townie than a dead scum.

Now, perhaps Hazel makes sense as scum if the other scum were already on the brewha bandwagon. Who had voted for brewha at the time? Hawkeyeop, Hockey Monkey and faithfool. Who else had votes against them? Hawkeyeop, Hockey Money and faithfool.

I think that Hazel knew that there wasn't much support for a faithfool lynch and didn't want to stick her neck out. I also think that she didn't dare risk starting a bandwagon against her fellow scum. So she chose Dio, who storyteller was riding all game long and who I had just FOS'ed. A nice, safe choice. And when that turned into a bandwagon that got Dio lynched, all the better. One more townie down.

I can get behind this bandwagon now.
Unvote Hawkeyeop
Vote HazelNutCoffee

[Rysto]

So she chose Dio, who storyteller was riding all game long and who I had just FOS'ed.
NETA: It must be noted that Hazel had been voicing suspicions of Dio for some time at this point. I don't want to give the impression that she completely chose his name out of the blue.

[Rysto]

Some more things. Remember the non-lynch of brewha on Day 3? The day that Hazel didn't vote? Freudian Slit, Hockey Monkey and Hawkeyeop were all on the brewha bandwagon. Now, if I were scum in Hazel's position, I'm stuck. If I drop the hammer on brewha, then this will be the third consecutive day that 4 scum have voted the same way(one of those votes was OAOW's self-hammer). If I vote somewhere else, it looks extremely fishy. Hazel was stuck between a rock and a hard place, and I'm wondering if she didn't vote because she figured it was the least suspicious thing she could do.

Since then, it looks as though the scum have made a concerted effort to not vote together. Hazel, Hockey and Hawkeyeop all voted different ways on Day 4, and while Hawkeyeop followed Hazel onto the Dio bandwagon, Hockey actually voted for Hazel.

[Hockey Monkey]

I would probably concur with you Rysto, except I know that Hockey Monkey is town, so that kinda blows a hole in your theory.

[Rysto]

I would probably concur with you Rysto, except I know that Hockey Monkey is town, so that kinda blows a hole in your theory.
I'm not exactly looking to win you over with my theory. :)

[NAF1138]

4 - HazelNutCoffee (Pleo, zuma, brewha, Rysto)

3 - brewha (hawk, sach, faithfool)

1 - Rysto (HM)

5 to start the clock 6 to end the Day.

8 out of 9 votes cast have been cast, and there are about 24 hours left in the Day.

[Hockey Monkey]

It weirds me out that 2 people I think are scum are voting for the other person I think is scum.

[Rysto]

It weirds me out that 2 people I think are scum are voting for the other person I think is scum.
I'm more bothered by the fact that my prime suspect is vociferously defending my other two prime suspects.

[HazelNutCoffee]

Holy crap. I'm really sorry - something unexpected happened yesterday afternoon that tied me up, and then I was out of the house for the evening - and today I've been cleaning madly getting ready for visiting Dopers.

I was actually thinking about my vote in the shower today, and Rysto's vote for Diomedes that immediately follwed mine came to mind. My initial thought was that it seemed really scummy, but if Rysto is scum he'd know both Dio and I were town, which means it doesn't make sense - a scum starting a bandwagon against town to save town. I know this only makes sense to me since I know my own alignment. But at the very least I won't be voting for Rysto.

I know the day ends tomorrow at 11:30am PST. My dilemma is that I obviously don't want to get lynched, but I'm not sure brewha is scum. On the other hand, it seems that single votes I throw out get accused of being safe/throwaway votes.

Sorry, I have to run - I'm expecting Dopers to arrive any minute, but I WILL post a vote before the Day is out.

[Rysto]

I would probably concur with you Rysto, except I know that Hockey Monkey is town, so that kinda blows a hole in your theory.
You know, I really don't like this post. Because if Hockey Monkey really were a Townie who thought that this theory had a lot of merit, she'd say that I should look at faithfool instead of her. faithfool does not fit the theory as well as Hockey Monkey does, but she fits pretty well.

[Hockey Monkey]

You know, I really don't like this post. Because if Hockey Monkey really were a Townie who thought that this theory had a lot of merit, she'd say that I should look at faithfool instead of her. faithfool does not fit the theory as well as Hockey Monkey does, but she fits pretty well.


Sorry Rysto, that was kind of a drive by since I'm at work. I was just saying that I like the way you are thinking, but you are on the wrong track. I don't think faithfool is scum, so it would never occur to me to substitute her into your theory.

[Hawkeyeop]

It weirds me out that 2 people I think are scum are voting for the other person I think is scum.

I think this is because you are wrong on Hazel. If you switch back to Brewha we should be able to finally get him lynched.

[Rysto]

I think this is because you are wrong on Hazel. If you switch back to Brewha we should be able to finally get him lynched.
Translation: "Our teammate is in trouble. Quick, get back on the brewha bandwagon."

[Hockey Monkey]

Gah! My head hurts. :p

[Hawkeyeop]

Translation: "Our teammate is in trouble. Quick, get back on the brewha bandwagon."


Or, you know, maybe I've thought Brewha was scum since day 3, Hockey Monkey has thought so longer, and now we can finally get him lynched.

[Rysto]

Another thing that I'd like to throw out here is that yesterDay, Hal was pressuring Hawkeyeop, and now Hal's dead.

On the other hand, I'm not sure if I've ever actually seen scum kill off a player for pressuring scum unless they believe the townie is a Seer.

[Rysto]

So, I'll see you all here tomorrow for another exciting game of last-minute lynch?

Well, at least for once I got my votes in early, put together some analysis and built what I think is a pretty good case against my targets. Even Hockey Monkey agrees that I've got a good case. :)

[Hockey Monkey]

Uh huh, I even voted for you! :)

Seriously, though, I'm starting the clock.

unvote Rysto

Vote HazelNutCoffee

[Rysto]

Are you trying to psych me out here? It won't work.

[Rysto]

So, either everybody's completely satisfied with this lynch, or nobody's checked in on a Sunday morning. In the interests of not cutting off discussion, I'll unvote. Fellow townies, for the love of God, don't make me regret this.

Unvote Hazel

[Rysto]

Vote Hazel

The day ends today at 2pm Pacific, 5pm Eastern. Please keep in mind that if anybody else votes for Hazel, the day will end immediately. If everyone else is happy with a Hazel lynch, though, I'm certainly happy with it.

Oh, and Hockey Monkey? Starting the clock at 11:30 at night? How very townie of you. :dubious:

[zuma]

The day now ends at 2 p.m. pacific. As of right now, there won't be a lynch. I'm ok with you stopping the clock, Rysto, to further any discussion, but let's just be aware of the deadline.

[zuma]

OK, I see what you were doing. Better to just let it end at 2 rather than 11:30.

[HazelNutCoffee]

Ugh. Hungover.

I typed out a long post, but I re-read it and it's nothing I haven't said before, plus I'm hungover so it doesn't make much sense.

Pure survival instinct would have me vote for brewha, but I don't think he's scum (if he is scum, scum have been playing an awfully close game). And despite Rysto's crackpot theory that assumes the scumminess of not one but three players, I don't think he's scum either, based on the reasons I outlined in my previous post.

And yet, if I vote for someone else, I am again going to be accused of making a "safe" vote. I am vaguely reminded of the Pit thread where people are complaining about those who vote for candidates that will never be elected for president anyway. Look, I don't care what the majority thinks; I'm going to vote in whatever way I deem is pro-town. Sometimes that aligns with the majority's opinon, sometimes not.

I just want to emphasize again - if I were scum and trying to save my own neck, it would have made much more sense for me to vote for someone already garnering votes. It would have drawn less attention and there would have been a higher probability of me being saved, doncha think?

Ugh. I don't want to vote for any of the candidates up for lynching right now (including myself, obviously), but I'm trying to decide if it's worth voting at all for someone else at this point.

[HazelNutCoffee]

Oh, never mind. It seems a majority has been reached and I'm spitting into the wind, or whatever the metaphor is.

[zuma]

That's a dangerous way of thinking. "We can't win if this is true, therefore it can't be true"? I've seen that one backfire massively in the past(see: "if storyteller is scum we've lost, so I trust storyteller" from Mafia 2).

Examine your assumption. I've yet to hear a reasonable explanation for how brewha could be town, Hazel could be scum and Hazel not vote for brewha. I don't believe brewha's explanation that the scum want him alive. I agree that the scum have been milking the brewha bandwagon for all that it's worth to distract the town, but for the scum, better a dead Townie than a dead scum.

I'll give you that, Rysto. I am slightly bothered by the fact that HNC did not vote brewha. Maybe she would have come back later and switched her vote? Maybe brewha really is scum? But really, I have to just go back and put everything in proper perspective. I just go back to Diomedes getting lynched out of the blue, and Hazel having a really suspicious voting history. And I'll admit that HNC claiming the Sicily trait is a factor.

I tend to have a backwards-ass approach to this game, in that I kind of try to identify townies, then try to hone in on scum. Worked for Diomedes and I hope it works for HM and somewhat for brewha, and I try to re-examine my conclusions each day. Eh. I'm rambling.

I'll say again that this game is a learning experience for me... I do hope I'm on the right track. All I can do is vote who I think is the most scummy...

[Rysto]

And despite Rysto's crackpot theory that assumes the scumminess of not one but three players,
I don't assume the scumminess of the three of you. I find Hockey Monkey and Hawkeyeop suspicious because of the reasons that I've voiced earlier, as well as some other things that I can really only sum up as "they've been pinging my scumdar". I also find the arguments against you, Hazel, to be compelling, but I couldn't get over the fact that you refused to vote for brewha. My theory just tries to answer the question of why, if you were scum, you did not vote for brewha. And now that I have a viable theory as to why you would vote as you did if you were scum, I can accept the arguments that are are scum.

The fact that my theory just adds more evidence against the three of you is just gravy.

[Hawkeyeop]

Gah, this is frustrating.

Hockey

Why due you think Hazel is scummier then Brewha?

Hazel,

If Hockey or anyone else was willing to switch over from you to Brewha, would you vote Brewha? Would you prefer a no lynch to lynching Brewha?

[zuma]

Gah, this is frustrating.

Hockey

Why due you think Hazel is scummier then Brewha?

Hazel,

If Hockey or anyone else was willing to switch over from you to Brewha, would you vote Brewha? Would you prefer a no lynch to lynching Brewha?

I don't think HM has stated she thinks hazel is scummier than brewa

No-lynch at this point is the same as a lynch of a townie. We'd be lynch or lose tomrrow regardless. I support a lynch today because even if the lynchee is town, it provides data points, and one less person to consider tomrrow. I hope I am right and we off a disgruntled, but even if we're wrong it's better than a no lynch.

[Hawkeyeop]

I don't think HM has stated she thinks hazel is scummier than brewa

Her vote says that. If she voted for Brewha, it would of evened things 4 to 4 with Brewha and Hazel, with only Hazel left to vote. If Hazel was willing to vote Brewha at that point (hence question two), Hockey is, in essence, choosing to lynch Hazel over Brewha.

[brewha]

Just barely made it back. Let's hope we got the right one.

I'm thinking we have to look closer at Hawkeye and Hockey if HNC does turn up scum.

[Rysto]

That should be it; night starts when NAF posts.

Now I lay me down to sleep,
Pray the Lord my soul to keep,
And if the scum my life should take
Send HM tumbling in my wake

[NAF1138]

Management has a mean streak and almost decided to make you think that HNC wasn't scum. Management had written a whole 3 paragraph essay taunting town about how bad they were at this.

Manangement has since thought better of it. You guys deserve to get some straight talk.

HNC - a very disgruntled associate

has been killed.

Good work team. Keep it up.

Day 7 will start no later then 48 hours from this post.

Go Team!

[Hawkeyeop]

Apparently scum can forget about the game. Feel free not to listen to me in the future..

[Rysto]

Apparently scum can forget about the game. Feel free not to listen to me in the future..
Way ahead of you. :)

[brewha]

SWEET!

Is there a bar up on this mountain top or what?
Drinks on me!

[Hockey Monkey]

uh huh. I'll be over here in the corner with my back to the wall...watching.

[Hockey Monkey]

Updated dossier document.

[Hawkeyeop]

*Takes whatever knocks out all previous memories* Brewha now thats a funny name...

[Pleonast]

Yes! My logic actually panned out for once. Hmm, considering what happened to story, don't mind me while I cower in the corner. :smack:

[dotchan]

*bump from the Peanut Gallery*

BTW, NAF1138 has been trampled by stampeding Giants (and mistakenly labeled a a scumbag, but I waved my hand and fixed that) in the other game, so he can't use it as an excuse to flake on you guys any more. :D

[Kat]

Management has a mean streak and almost decided to make you think that HNC wasn't scum. Management had written a whole 3 paragraph essay taunting town about how bad they were at this.

Did you save the essay? Is it funny? Can we read it? :p

[mmouse9799]

Geez...I couldn't find this thread 'cause it was on the second page.

bump

[brewha]

This is probably the most paranoid game of mafia I've seen. It seems that no one wants to say anything lest it be misinterpreted. Usually there's a little mindless banter - even at night.

Just trying to keep this at the top - day break should be coming soon.

[zuma]

brewha, what are things like in wisconsin? Is it really horribly cold there?

I'm a CA pussy and visiting friends on the east coast I could not deal at all with winter. Of course January in Chicago was a hell I never wanted to experience again.

[zuma]

brewha you are welcome to visit ca. I'll take you to top dog. Unless of course you are scum playing me. Then you can freeze your ass off there. Come on NAF, get on with the new day. This is night so I should say I might be scum playing you all bleh.

[zuma]

What's really important is They Might Be Giants.

I'm you're only friend, Mafia game:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kJD2N2gvqw

[zuma]

I'm the blue canary in the outlet by the lightswitch who watches over you.

In all seriousness, They Might Be Giants fucking rules. I saw them I think 3 times. Fillmore, Great American Music Hall, and I think Fillmore again. I wonder what they're up tp these days.

[zuma]

NAF, Socal sucks. That is all.

ok, that's kind of silly, but the fact remains. Same goes for you, Pleo. It's one big, ugly, smoggy, shallow piss pot of myeh. I do like the pacific time we have going on in this game tho.

[Hockey Monkey]

zuma! Now you have me hungry for hotdogs! :p Chill dude. :D

[zuma]

I'm just getting impatient, HM. Plus I'm a bit intransigent towards the mods.

[Hockey Monkey]

*goes to look up intransigent*

[zuma]

Well I had to look up the correct spelling.

[NAF1138]

NAF, Socal sucks. That is all.

ok, that's kind of silly, but the fact remains. Same goes for you, Pleo. It's one big, ugly, smoggy, shallow piss pot of myeh. I do like the pacific time we have going on in this game tho.


The only good thing about NorCal is San Francisco. And I mean the city, not any of those fucking suburbs. The rest of it is a redneck wasteland. Have you BEEN to Sacramento recently?

Ok, there redwood forests way up north are fairly awesome...and Santa Cruz ain't too bad either...wine country kinda rocks. But your surfing sucks and Berkley smells funny.

Who am I kidding, I love California. I just can't bring myself to hate on you all up there. (Berkley does smell funny though)



Oh, and scum are draggin ass. So it looks like the Day won't start for another hour or two.