Predictions for today's primaries and caucuses

[Richard Parker]

Today we have Nevada Republican and Democratic caucuses, as well as the South Carolina Republican primary.

My predictions:

NV (D): Very close. Clinton squeaks out a win. The old-line party faithful are the only ones that had caucused in the past, and with relatively equal organizing efforts from Clinton and Obama, this ends up being the deciding factor for Sen. Clinton.

NV (R): Romney wins, as expected, but McCain does better than expected.

SC (R): McCain beats Huckabee more soundly than the polls suggest. Romney is a distant third.

[elucidator]

Huckleberry takes SC, plague of frogs hampers McCain.

[jtgain]

NV (D): Clinton
NV (R): Romney
SC (R): Huckabee

Tomorrow: Thompson quits. McCain loses the rest of his hair.

[Billdo]

NV: Clinton by a nose, and a solid win for the Mitten Man.

SC will be more interesting. I think McCain and Huck will be neck and neck with Huckabee narrowly winning, Romney will do so-so, Thompson will do poorly and drop out after the loss, and Giuliani will get about 17 votes from transplanted northerners, narrowly losing to Mickey Mouse as a write in, "none of the above" and Ron Paul, but still beating Mike Gravel -- and he'll say it was a win for his Florida strategy.

[Richard Parker]

NV: Clinton by a nose, and a solid win for the Mitten Man.

SC will be more interesting. I think McCain and Huck will be neck and neck with Huckabee narrowly winning, Romney will do so-so, Thompson will do poorly and drop out after the loss, and Giuliani will get about 17 votes from transplanted northerners, narrowly losing to Mickey Mouse as a write in, "none of the above" and Ron Paul, but still beating Mike Gravel -- and he'll say it was a win for his Florida strategy.

I bet Paul beats Giuliani.

[Captain Amazing]

Obama wins Nevada, due to the casino caucus decision. I'm not sure about the Republicans. Either McCain or Huckabee win SC, but it's close...1 or 2%

[DSeid]

Nevada very close. I had been calling it as a narrow win for HRC but I think Bill's antics regarding the attempt to change the caucus rules will make a lot of the Latino casino workers feel that being loyal to the Union trumps their borderline greater attraction to a Clinton.

Still essentially tied. A narrow win there helps Obama a bit more in perception than a narrow win for HRC does but in either case he wins SC, which helps him narrow his probable loss in FLA. Unless he wins both NEV and SC and Richardson endorses him before FLA pulling in the Mexican heritaged vote to him.

[DSeid]

Oh McCain in SC. God has sent snow to keep the fundamentalists in the North from the polls while relatively sparing the McCain leaning coastal communities. It's a sign.

[AHunter3]

FOX is calling (R) Nevada for Romney already.

[John Mace]

FOX is calling (R) Nevada for Romney already.
No surprise, there. Despite it's rep as the sin state, it's got a big Mormon community.

I'm going to say Hillary in Nevada, Romney in Nevada, and McCain in SC (with Huckabee a close second). Huckabee will begin his slow decline after that loss. Thompson is toast, and Edwards will drop out shortly. He will make a bid to Obama for the VP slot (again), but won't get it.

[Liberal]

Paul will place third in Nevada. No, wait. Nevermind. That's just crazy.

[athelas]

With 3% of precincts reporting, politico.com Obama has a huge 36% lead. Looks like the Clinton maneuvering may have backfired in a big way.

EDIT: but CNN has Clinton up by 12. Humph.

[kellner]

With 3% of precincts reporting, politico.com Obama has a huge 36% lead.Then perhaps I didn't imagine it. I could have sworn that I saw numbers along those lines on CNN but then the percentage dropped. :confused:

[Jophiel]

Politico's results state that the Democrat percentage represents the number of delegates won, not the popular vote cast. So that might explain some large percentage swings in the beginning.

[Mosier]

My precinct in Nevada sent 3 delegates for Clinton and 1 for Obama. If my middle class minority-heavy neighborhood can't give Obama a tie, I think we should all be ready for Nevada to go to Clinton.

[AHunter3]

CNN has called Nevada for Clinton

[DSeid]

So Nevada gives 13 delegates to HRC and 12 to Obama.

And on to SC. SC is a must win for Obama. If HRC wins SC then Obama is toast.

[athelas]

Andrew Sullivan (http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/01/the-clintons--8.html) notes that Clinton won heavily among Hispanics, and Obama won even more heavily among blacks. Her recent racial polarization tactics may have helped in Nevada, but it will likely backfire in SC, which has way more blacks than Hispanics. Nevertheless, becoming a racially polarizing candidate is very bad news for Obama, who was counting on a message of unity and optimism and moving past all that.

[foolsguinea]

I haven't been following the polls, but I have these magic stones in my hat. I'll see what they say:

SC GOP: In a sudden show of unity, the Romneyites & the Huckabeeans decide to compromise on Fred Thompson, ironically muddying things further.

NV Dem: Obama surprises the pollsters with a win, & for a week we get to hear the same, "wow that's amazing" natter we did after NH.

NV GOP: Ron Paul!!!?

Wait, what? Even I can see that a Mormon has to have some credibility in the mountain west. Stupid hat-stones!

[Squink]

Obama, who was counting on a message of unity and optimism and moving past all that. Obama's vision of a postpartisan nation is the very thing which I find most annoying about the guy. In the probability space of political feasibility, 'postpartisanship' is hanging right out there in the ozone with Huckabee's 'fair tax' talk.

[Sam Stone]

Going by the exit polls, it looks like Huckabee and McCain and running neck-and-neck, and Romney and Thompson are tied for a distant third.

This is not good for the Thompson campaign. He needed to break away from Romney and finish strongly in the top group. If he doesn't, then I predict one of two things:

- If Huckabee wins, the race is still wide open, and I think Thompson may stick around for a while.

- If McCain wins, I think there will be some pressure on Thompson to pack it up and throw his support to McCain and try to push him over the top.

Romney finishes the day about where he started - with a loss in SC but a win in Nevada, he's just as viable as he was before, and still in the top tier of candidates.

If Huckabee loses, I think he's in big trouble. This is the high-water mark for his support. Moving down into Florida is going to be very costly for him. If he loses by more than a few points to McCain, I think he's done.

If McCain wins, I'd say the race is going to be between Romney and McCain, with Guliani a wildcard pending the Florida results. Thompson would make an excellent running mate for Romney. If McCain wins, I think Thompson is too old to be his running mate - McCain will have to go after someone younger to keep the ticket looking like the old men against the Democratic fresh faces.

[Squink]

Looks like Thompson's on his way out:
Thompson has no public schedule Sunday, and is planning to consult with campaign manager (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/19/fred-thompson-stays-in-gop-presidential-race-for-now/) Bill Lacy and other top advisers about the next move.

"We are not blind to the obvious," said one senior campaign adviser.
With 33% reporting, it's McCain 33, Huckabee 30, Thompson 16.

McCain needs a bigger win than this to drive a stake through Huckabee.

[Quartz]

As of now CNN is reporting that with 55% of results in, it's McCain 34%, Huckabee 29%, then Thompson on 16%.

[Quartz]

I think Thompson would be foolish to quit as long as he's got money. He will benefit from a stumble by either Huckabee or McCain.

[Squink]

With 88% reporting, it's 33 McCain, 30 Huckabee.
Sam may be right about Florida, but I don't think the Huckster's dead yet.

[Sam Stone]

Huckabee once again finished 4th among non-evangelicals in SC.

How many evangelicals are there in Florida?

There's only one reason Thompson may stay in now - to hack away at Huckabee and clear the road for McCain. And he may just do that, at least until Super Tuesday. So long as he can continue to raise funds on his web site, he's really got nothing to lose, and if he can pick up enough delegates in the South to be a reasonable-sized bloc at a brokered convention, he's still got some leverage to push the party in the direction he wants it to go or to land a VP job, if he wants it.

McCain's the odd-on favorite now, for sure.

[John Mace]

SC voters also gave McCain a huge edge in electability over Huckelbee, too. He should start trumpeting that in his stump speeches. I think he or Giuliani are the only two that stand a chance against either Clinton or Obama.

McCain is looking pretty old, though. It's going to be tough going for him.

[jtgain]

Huckabee once again finished 4th among non-evangelicals in SC.

How many evangelicals are there in Florida?

There's only one reason Thompson may stay in now - to hack away at Huckabee and clear the road for McCain. And he may just do that, at least until Super Tuesday. So long as he can continue to raise funds on his web site, he's really got nothing to lose, and if he can pick up enough delegates in the South to be a reasonable-sized bloc at a brokered convention, he's still got some leverage to push the party in the direction he wants it to go or to land a VP job, if he wants it.

McCain's the odd-on favorite now, for sure.

There are a lot of evangelicals in FL.

Romney and Guiliani are not to be dismissed yet. If Huck doesn't win FL (yes win, no "strong showing) he is pretty much toast. Guiliani also must win FL.

[John Mace]

There are a lot of evangelicals in FL.

Romney and Guiliani are not to be dismissed yet. If Huck doesn't win FL (yes win, no "strong showing) he is pretty much toast. Guiliani also must win FL.
Right now McCain is polling about 5 pts higher than Huckabee, and (I think) 1 or 2 pts higher than Giuliani. I think we've seen the beginning of the end for Huckabee. Giuliani is fighting an uphill battle, but he's a tough S.O.B., and I wouldn't count him out until after Super Tues.

I'm still baffled as to why Arnold has not endorsed anyone yet. He's gotta be behind either Rudy or McCain.

[Sam Stone]

After this win, I think the next polls out of Florida are likely to show McCain with a double-digit lead.

McCain's not a bad choice, though. His age is a big problem, but if Obama gets nominated I think you're going to see the race played out as youth vs experience and gravitas. McCain does have that going for him. He's also got a lot of crossover appeal and can attract a lot of moderates.

If I were an American, I could live with any of the top four Republicans except Huckabee. Seriously, if Huckabee were the nominee I would vote for Obama or Hillary over him. He strikes me as a complete disaster were he to be president. He seems affable to me, but just not that bright. I think Bush looks like a genius compared to him. And you get a bad combination of Democrat-lite fiscal policy and far-right social policy, administered by someone who is not as bright as either of the two Democratic front-runners. Yuck.

[elucidator]

Just a few more steps and he's ours!

[Squink]

- If McCain wins, I think there will be some pressure on Thompson to pack it up and throw his support to McCain and try to push him over the top.
Thompson packs it in (http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4160024&page=1) "Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States," read a statement from Thompson. "I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people."No endorsement of McCain yet though.

[foolsguinea]

He strikes me as a complete disaster were he to be president. He seems affable to me, but just not that bright.Yeah, that seems to be sinking in across the base now.