Johan Santana finally traded

[RealityChuck]

Let's go Mets!

:)

[silenus]

The Twins made out pretty good on the deal themselves. An outfielder, three pitchers, all of them young. This is going to be interesting for both teams.

[anyrose]

Let's go Mets!

:)

Woo AND Hoo !!!!

less than 70 days until Game 1 !!!

[Marley23]

The best of all possible worlds, as far as I'm concerned - Boston didn't get him, and the Yankees didn't have to give up their young pitchers or Cabrera and take on that huge salary.

[RealityChuck]

It was value for potential value. If the players pan out, then the Twins do well. But for 2008, the Mets got the best of it.

[What Exit?]

The rumored deal is: outfielder Carlos Gomez, and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey for Santana.

Conditional on the Mets signing the extension of 6-7 years of course.

Gomez (http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=5537) is a highly rated prospect, possibly the #1 positional prospect in the Mets organization. In AAA he hit .286 w/ 17SB.

Humber is their #1 pitching prospect.
Philip Humber (http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=22205) Bats Right, Throws Right; Height 6' 4", Weight 210 lb.; School Rice University; Debut September 24, 2006; Born December 21, 1982 in Nacogdoches, TX. He has had two cups of coffee but in the minors:
He went 11-9 in AAA with a 4.27 ERA. Only 139 IP. He will be 25 next year.

Deolis Guerra (http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=30927) Bats: Right, Throws: Right Born: April 17, 1989 An A+ player.

Kevin Mulvey (http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=30790) Bats: Right, Throws: Right Height: NA, Weight: NA Born: May 26, 1985. He made it to AAA last year. Overall 12-10 with 157 IP


So Twins fans, your GM bluffed too long and got a much lesser deal than if he had met the Yanks or Red Sox a little back in December.

The best of all possible worlds, as far as I'm concerned - Boston didn't get him, and the Yankees didn't have to give up their young pitchers or Cabrera and take on that huge salary.
Amen Brudder, Amen!

Jim

[anyrose]

It was value for potential value. If the players pan out, then the Twins do well. But for 2008, the Mets got the best of it.
assuming, of course, we don't trade him away midseason....

[RealityChuck]

Humber is coming off Tommy John surgery, which hurt his value. He will probably be a solid ML pitcher, but not a staff ace.

Gomez has a lot of potential and is a very exciting ballplayer -- one of the fastest players around. Probably needs another year in the minors, but could be starting in center by the end of this year.

Mulvey was a top draft choice for the team and probably will be in the majors to stay by 2010. I don't know much about Guerra other than the fact he's young.

But the Mets got to keep two of their best young players -- Mike Pelfrey (who probably needs more minor league time, but will probably be on the opening day roster, and who looks pretty good) and Ferdnando Martinez, the team's best outfield prospect after Gomez, and one who impresses scouts more due to his age (he's 19, and playing with older prospects).

This reminds me a lot of 2005, when the rumors were that the Mets would get Pedro Martinez. No one really believed it, until it happened.

[What Exit?]

Humber is coming off Tommy John surgery, which hurt his value. He will probably be a solid ML pitcher, but not a staff ace.

Gomez has a lot of potential and is a very exciting ballplayer -- one of the fastest players around. Probably needs another year in the minors, but could be starting in center by the end of this year.

Mulvey was a top draft choice for the team and probably will be in the majors to stay by 2010. I don't know much about Guerra other than the fact he's young.

But the Mets got to keep two of their best young players -- Mike Pelfrey (who probably needs more minor league time, but will probably be on the opening day roster, and who looks pretty good) and Ferdnando Martinez, the team's best outfield prospect after Gomez, and one who impresses scouts more due to his age (he's 19, and playing with older prospects).

This reminds me a lot of 2005, when the rumors were that the Mets would get Pedro Martinez. No one really believed it, until it happened.
I think your GM is to be congratulated. Minaya did good! The Twins got a lot less than what was on the table in December.

I am not convinced Humber is as good as Ian Kennedy, never mind Hughes.

Jim

[VarlosZ]

The Twins made out pretty good on the deal themselves. An outfielder, three pitchers, all of them young. This is going to be interesting for both teams.
I'm gonna go ahead and disagree with you there. As has been widely reported, they had significantly better offers on the table in months past that they rejected, and have since evaporated. As is, the Twins didn't get a single top tier player or prospect for the best pitcher on Earth.

Gomez projects to be a decent pickup, an average or somewhat above average player in the outfield. Humber, at 25 years old, is no longer a prospect. At this point, he pretty much is what he is: a borderline 5th starter who will probably see the bullpen sometime in the next couple of years if he wants to remain viable in the Major Leagues. The same can't quite be said for Mulvey, entering his age 23 season, but he's still a relatively low-ceiling player.

Then there's Deolis Guerra. High ceiling, no doubt, but he's 18 and it's true what they say: TNSTAAPP (there's no such thing as a pitching prospect). Even the best pitchers his age get injured (or flame out for some other reason) so often in the next few years that they're basically unknown quantities. (Incidentally, the less commonly mentioned aspect of TNSTAAPP is that a 21 or 22 year old who's destroying the competition in AAA isn't a prospect at all, but rather a pitcher who happens not to have been promoted yet.)


Love this deal for the Mets. If they manage to pay him less than $150M over 6 years, I love it even more.

[Marley23]

I'm gonna go ahead and disagree with you there. As has been widely reported, they had significantly better offers on the table in months past that they rejected, and have since evaporated. As is, the Twins didn't get a single top tier player or prospect for the best pitcher on Earth.
That's my reading, too. While I only know the Mets prospects from reading about this deal, how is this better than the offers from the Yankees or Red Sox? I get the feeling the Twins asked for too much and screwed up.

[robardin]

As has been widely reported, they had significantly better offers on the table in months past that they rejected, and have since evaporated. As is, the Twins didn't get a single top tier player or prospect for the best pitcher on Earth.
I find this interesting, also. If the Yankees and Red Sox both had better offers on the table earlier, even if both offers were there primarily to keep the other team from landing Santana, how is it that BOTH teams pulled back at the same time?

If the Yankees had been willing to give up Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera for Santana two months ago, why would they have come down from that offer when it seems that might have beat out the Mets' offering, regardless of who the Red Sox were giving up?

[What Exit?]

I find this interesting, also. If the Yankees and Red Sox both had better offers on the table earlier, even if both offers were there primarily to keep the other team from landing Santana, how is it that BOTH teams pulled back at the same time?

If the Yankees had been willing to give up Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera for Santana two months ago, why would they have come down from that offer when it seems that might have beat out the Mets' offering, regardless of who the Red Sox were giving up?
I am wondering if the Twins just wanted to ensure he did not go to either AL Beast teams. I cannot find any other positive spin for this trade for the Twins. To me, their fans should be pissed.

[RealityChuck]

Humber, at 25 years old, is no longer a prospect. At this point, he pretty much is what he is: a borderline 5th starter who will probably see the bullpen sometime in the next couple of years if he wants to remain viable in the Major Leagues. .I wouldn't say that. Humber was slowed by the Tommy John surgery, and was one of the top two starters in the PCL last year (it's a very hitting-oriented league, so the raw statistics are misleading, but compared to others pitching there, he was definitely at the top).

He won't be a Santana, of course, but should be solid at a ML starter.

[VarlosZ]

I wouldn't say that. Humber was slowed by the Tommy John surgery, and was one of the top two starters in the PCL last year (it's a very hitting-oriented league, so the raw statistics are misleading, but compared to others pitching there, he was definitely at the top).

He won't be a Santana, of course, but should be solid at a ML starter.
That may be. I was mostly basing what I said on a quick perusal of his stats.

[RickJay]

I am wondering if the Twins just wanted to ensure he did not go to either AL Beast teams. I cannot find any other positive spin for this trade for the Twins. To me, their fans should be pissed.
I'm pissed as a Blue Jay fan. For some reason the Jays always seem to beat Santana. I wanted to see more of him.

[What Exit?]

I'm pissed as a Blue Jay fan. For some reason the Jays always seem to beat Santana. I wanted to see more of him.
He is going to look really good in Shea against pitchers and NL Shortstops & Catchers, isn't he? Do you think he can get under a 2.00 ERA?

[Frostillicus]

As a White Sox fan (World Champions -2), I am glad that Santana is off the Twins and out of the American League.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

I'm pissed as a Blue Jay fan. For some reason the Jays always seem to beat Santana. I wanted to see more of him.


The Tigers hit him pretty good too. I'm kinda sad to see him go as well.

[BobLibDem]

One never knows how these pan out. I remember how excited I was many years ago when the Yankees signed the Reds' ace, Don Gullett. Santana was a great pitcher for the Twins obviously but playing in New York is another matter. I'm just glad the Yankees didn't sell the farm to get him.

[Ichbin Dubist]

Gomez is a highly rated prospect, possibly the #1 positional prospect in the Mets organization. In AAA he hit .286 w/ 17SB.

He had 125 ABs in the majors last year. His stats are nothing special, but he struck me as being similar to Reyes when he came up -- fast as hell, good attitude, just going to get better. He's ones of those guys I will continue to root for.

As a Mets fan, going into the season with essentially the same team that just collapsed wasn't going to be pretty. Does anyone know offhand what the Phillies and Braves have done this offseason?

[Ichbin Dubist]

He is going to look really good in Shea against pitchers and NL Shortstops & Catchers, isn't he? Do you think he can get under a 2.00 ERA?

It looks close to 2.00 is not an unreasonable possibility according to MetsGeek (www.metsgeek.com/articles/2008/01/30/roundtable-santana-reactions/):

I’ll give even money for Santana bringing the Cy Young award back to New York for the first time since Dwight Gooden in 1985. Why? As a Twin, Santana’s averaged a 2.90 ERA over the past four years. Moving to a non-DH league knocks half a run off that. The difference in talent between the AL and NL knocks off another quarter run. Add in Shea Stadium’s penchant for keeping homeruns in check and the excellent Met defense and you’ve got the potential for a historic season.

[Marley23]

If the Yankees had been willing to give up Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera for Santana two months ago, why would they have come down from that offer when it seems that might have beat out the Mets' offering, regardless of who the Red Sox were giving up?
Disagreements within the organization - one Steinbrenner was willing to make that trade, the other (and Cashman) weren't, and the second faction won out - along with the fact that the Yankees probably didn't want to be jerked around into raising an already big offer just to see what else would come along.

[RickJay]

He is going to look really good in Shea against pitchers and NL Shortstops & Catchers, isn't he? Do you think he can get under a 2.00 ERA?
I'm going to agree in principle, but disagree with most of the reasons given so far.

1. Just to clear up a misconception, moving to the non-DH certainly does not knock "half a run" off someone's ERA, contrary to Ichbin's link. It's close to .25 of a run. Here are the runs scored per game for each league for the last few years:

2007 - AL 4.90, NL 4.71
2006 - AL 4.97, NL 4.76
2005 - AL 4.76, NL 4.45
2004 - AL 5.01, NL 4.64
2003 - AL 4.86, NL 4.61

This includes unearned runs.

As you can see, the difference in run scoring between the two leagues isn't really that big; it's worth a quarter of a run or so. The impact of having a pitcher in the lineup is a little bit overstated; I went through some random years from 1973 to 1993 and couldn't actually find ANY years when the difference in run scoring was half a run, and in some years it was like a sixth of a run. I know the "Half a run" thing is a common thing and to be honest, I'm quite surprised myself. Maybe there were some years when that happened but it seems to be rare.

2. While Shea is a good pitcher's park, Minnesota is (contrary to popular belief) not a fantastic hitter's park, with a deep outfield and lots of foul ground. Unfortunately I do not have home run-specific park effects, which would tell us more about Santana than most pitchers; Santana, believe it or not, led the AL in homers allowed last year and so moving into a cavern like Yankee Stadium or Petco Park would have saved him a lot of runs. I believe, just by memory, that there's not a lot of difference between Shea and the Metrodome in gopher balls, but I could stand to be corrected on that.

3. I realize the NL is the inferior league, but it's not necessarily a worse HITTING league. My wholly subjective impression is that the NL has pretty good hitting but is a bit slimmer in the pitching (it's definitely just as good defensively, though.) And anyway, league disparities have a way of vanishing as players move around.

I think the biggest advantage Santana gets here is a better defense - the Mets were a much better fielding team than Minnesota last year. That makes a big difference, and at least in 2008 I do expect the NL will continue to be the lesser league and the Mets will be a better team than Minnesota. Minnesota had a horrible offense last year, which is why Santana went 15-13; the Mets had one of the best offenses in the NL. A big year is quite possible.

My concern if I were a Mets fan would be giving a huge extension to any pitcher. How many long term pitching deals have WORKED?

[What Exit?]

2. While Shea is a good pitcher's park, Minnesota is (contrary to popular belief) not a fantastic hitter's park, with a deep outfield and lots of foul ground. Unfortunately I do not have home run-specific park effects, which would tell us more about Santana than most pitchers; Santana, believe it or not, led the AL in homers allowed last year and so moving into a cavern like Yankee Stadium or Petco Park would have saved him a lot of runs. I believe, just by memory, that there's not a lot of difference between Shea and the Metrodome in gopher balls, but I could stand to be corrected on that.
...
My concern if I were a Mets fan would be giving a huge extension to any pitcher. How many long term pitching deals have WORKED?
Here you go:

Shea (http://www.ballparks.com/baseball/national/sheast.htm)
Dimensions: Foul lines: 330 (marked, l964), 341 (actual, 1964), 341 (1965), 338 (1979); power alleys: 371, 378 (current); center field: 410; backstop: 80; foul territory: very large.

Fences: Foul lines: 16.33 (4 wire and railing above 12.33 brick, 1964), 12.33 (brick, 1965), 8 (wood, 1979); power alleys: 8 (wood); center field small section: 8.75 (wood), most 8 (wood).

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome (http://www.ballparks.com/baseball/american/metrod.htm)
Dimensions: Left field: 344 (1982), 343 (1983); left-center: 385; center field: 407 (1982), 408 (1983); right-center: 367; right field: 327; backstop: 60; apex of dome: 186; foul territory: small.

Fences: Left field: 7 (canvas, 1982), 13 (6 plexiglass above 7 canvas, 1983); center field: 7 (canvas, 1982); right field: 7 (canvas, 1982), 13 (canvas, early in 1983), 23 (canvas, later in 1983).


The only 6+ year pitching contract that actually worked out that I can recall was Moose's.

Maddux, Smoltz & Glavine never had 6 years contracts.

Kevin Brown's was a disaster.
Mike Hampton, Rockies @ Eight years, $121 million

Jim

[robardin]

As a Mets fan, going into the season with essentially the same team that just collapsed wasn't going to be pretty. Does anyone know offhand what the Phillies and Braves have done this offseason?
Amen.

Let's see. The Phils re-signed Jayson Werth to a one-year deal and signed Geoff Jenkins to a two year deal to replace Aaron Rowand, who won a Gold Glove in the outfield, and who they lost to the SF Giants through free agency. They signed Pedro Feliz to a two year deal at 3B, and acquired OF Chris Snelling from Tampa Bay (for cash), and picked up free agent pitcher Chad Durbin.

Overall I think the Phils come out flat from last year. Pedro Feliz solidifies 3B, which was kind of a mess for the Phils last year (platooning Abraham Nunez and Wes Helms), but he's not significantly above par for a major league starting 3B. Losing All-Star and Gold Glover Aaron Rowand and replacing him with a platoon Jenkins and Werth feels bad to me. And Durbin seems a long shot for the rotation, seems to be insurance against injury to a starting pitcher.

The Braves re-signed their closer (Rafael Soriano) and Mark Teixeira at 1B, acquired OF Mark Kotsay from the As, and picked up Tom Glavine as a free agent. They lost Andruw Jones through free agency to the Dodgers. And only The Shadow knows what the story will be with Mike Hampton this year.

Picking up Glavine from the Mets might have gained them ground in the division comparisons before the Mets picked up Santana. I think the Braves are the weakest of the three leading teams in the NL East, but I have long since learned never to count them out.

[RealityChuck]

Of course, Santana will only be pitching in Shea one year.

Citi Field is scheduled to open in 2009.

[What Exit?]

Of course, Santana will only be pitching in Shea one year.

Citi Field is scheduled to open in 2009.
Dimensions: Left field: 335 feet; left-center: 379 feet; center field: 408 feet; right-center: 391 feet; right field: 330 feet.

Fences: Unknown

[RickJay]

Dimensions: Left field: 335 feet; left-center: 379 feet; center field: 408 feet; right-center: 391 feet; right field: 330 feet.

Fences: Unknown
It will still be more or less at sea level. The really big difference, however, will be better lighting; Shea Stadium has poor lighting for a major league ballpark, which has a deterimental effect on hitting. We'd also need to know how much foul ground there will be.

[What Exit?]

It will still be more or less at sea level. The really big difference, however, will be better lighting; Shea Stadium has poor lighting for a major league ballpark, which has a deterimental effect on hitting. We'd also need to know how much foul ground there will be.
My understanding from the proposed stadium I saw, is there will be less foul ground. In fact, it looked like a lot less foul ground. There is a bit of retro Polo Ground look to Citi Field.

Sorry I forgot to include the link (http://www.ballparks.com/baseball/national/nymbpk.htm). It is worth checking out. These guys do a great job on their site.

ETA: Wow, there is a picture at the bottom of the page I linked that really shows how much less foul ground.

Jim

[storyteller0910]

All I'm saying is, you won't hear a word from me on this until a contract extension is signed. I'm not superstitious, but on the tiny chance that there is such a thing as a "jinx," I'll just reserve comment for now.

[Jas09]

It seems to me that the Mets got Santana for significantly less than what the Yankees and Red Sox were offering. I can only assume this was a deliberate attempt by the Twins to move him to the NL. That or the AL teams were never really offering what was rumored.

Santana will look really good in Shea - that stadium really drives up strikeouts. The Mets also have to be prohibitive NL East favorites (seeing as how they were only 1 game out last year, ever after their spectacular collapse).

For the Twins, eh, they got volume. I guess you could look at the bright side and say odds are one or two of the guys will be good MLers. I just don't see a bona fide "can't miss" star prospect in that group...

[Gangster Octopus]

How long of an extension does Santana want? I would be wary of ever giving a pitcher anything long term.

[What Exit?]

How long of an extension does Santana want? I would be wary of ever giving a pitcher anything long term.
Rumors are between 5 and 7 years.

[Justin_Bailey]

In case anyone was wondering, while I'm not sure it was THE first, ER was one of the first shows filmed and broadcast in 16:9...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ER_(TV_series)#History_and_production

[Justin_Bailey]

In case anyone was wondering, while I'm not sure it was THE first, ER was one of the first shows filmed and broadcast in 16:9...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ER_(TV_series)#History_and_production

Damn multiple open windows!

[Marley23]

How long of an extension does Santana want? I would be wary of ever giving a pitcher anything long term.
Supposedly six years and $150 million, which works out to $780,000 per regular season start. I find that really amazing.

[Crawlspace]

I find this interesting, also. If the Yankees and Red Sox both had better offers on the table earlier, even if both offers were there primarily to keep the other team from landing Santana, how is it that BOTH teams pulled back at the same time?

If the Yankees had been willing to give up Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera for Santana two months ago, why would they have come down from that offer when it seems that might have beat out the Mets' offering, regardless of who the Red Sox were giving up?Because the Twins blew it. They were trying to play the Yankee's and Red Sox off of one another in the hopes that they could get an even better package -- Hughes/Kennedy/Cabrera (Yanks) or Lester/Buchholz/Ellisbury (Sox). Not a bad idea given the bidding wars that have gone on between the two in the past, but the Twins went about it with the subtlety of a 16y/o girl with daddy issues on prom night. As soon as it became clear that they were being played, talks cooled off and both teams had time to reassess their offers. The Yankees decided that they didn't want to give up Hughes and Cabrera and pretty much pulled their offer. The last I heard, the Lester/CocoCrisp offer had been on the table until recently when the Red Sox pulled Lester off the table as well.

In an odd way, it seems that the Twins expected either of the two to give up butt loads of talent simply because they have butt loads of talent.

It wouldn't be unreasonable to suspect that both teams considered what the had offered in comparison to what the Mets (the only other real team in the talks) were offering and naturally assumed that Santana wasn't going anywhere and they would take their chances on him hitting free agency.

[Wargamer]

I think the Mets made out like a bandit on this deal. Of course, they have other issues in their rotation - can Pedro and El Duque stay healthy, will Oliver Perez continue his success or will he regress, etc etc. I think the deal makes the Mets the clear favorite in the NL East, but certainly not an overwhelming favorite, as I feel both the Phillies and the Braves have a better offense top to bottom than the Mets (of course Reyes-Wright-Beltran is a formidable 1-2-3).

So, it should be an interesting race in '08.


Disclosure - Been a Braves fan since the days of Murphy and Bob Horner, so take my analysis with a grain of salt.

[Mr. Greenjeans]

As a Phillies fan, I think:

Well, there's another good pitcher that I have to hate.

[Captain Lance Murdoch]

Wait, New York beat out Pittsburgh and Kansas City in the derby to acquire the centerpiece of the Twins exodus of talent? And Los Angeles got Tori Hunter instead of Cincinnati? Looks like the big cities are going to finally start spending some money to try and get competitive again.

[Trollhaugen]

Twins fan here. I have little to no reaction on this trade. It was inevitible and these types of deal will always be inevitiable until MLB changes and implements a profit sharing/cap. I don't really have an opinion on if implementing those would be good for baseball or not and don't want to hijack this thread and turn it into a debate. I am just saying that we all knew it would happen, it happened and even though they lost the best pitcher in baseball, I will still be a fan of the Twinkies.

[storyteller0910]

The Yankees decided that they didn't want to give up Hughes and Cabrera and pretty much pulled their offer. The last I heard, the Lester/CocoCrisp offer had been on the table until recently when the Red Sox pulled Lester off the table as well.

I have to say, the above is the part that blows me away about all this. From a Red Sox perspective, "pulling Lester off the table," when a package of Lester and Crisp would have made the Santana deal happen, just makes no sense at all. I mean, Jon Lester has a chance - a chance - of maybe possibly being close to as good as Johan Santana. Santana is already there. Crisp is a nonentity, so basically you're talking about making a straight-up trade of a player who's already a Cy Young-quality pitcher for a player who might be, someday.

Ditto the Yankees. Does anyone really think the ceiling for Phil Hughes is higher than Johan Santana? Melky Cabrera is a nice player, but if you're the Yankees, you can buy a replacement for what he provides without much stress.

And the thing is, even if Hughes turns out to be as good as Santana, he won't be this year, or the next year. Trade him for Santana now, win with him this year and next year, and then - when Hughes' price tag becomes too much for the Twins to handle - repeat the process, and get Hughes back for the next big pitching prospect. And so on.

I think the Yankees and Red Sox blew it on this one, but both will be rescued by the fact that they both blew it. If the Sox had traded Jon Lester and Coco Crisp to the Twins for Johan Santana, they might have won 110 games this year.

[Marley23]

Ditto the Yankees. Does anyone really think the ceiling for Phil Hughes is higher than Johan Santana? Melky Cabrera is a nice player, but if you're the Yankees, you can buy a replacement for what he provides without much stress.
Consider the combined ceilings of Hughes and Kennedy (who were offered together, plus others, at one point if I remember correctly) or Hughes and Cabrera and whatever else was in the offer. Then consider the cost of signing Santana, at $25 million a year plus luxury tax, and, if necessary, a replacement for Cabrera or another pitcher, and contrast that to the number of wins Santana would have given them over what they already had. How many more games do they win, and at what price? From that standpoint, this could have been a very expensive trade.

[What Exit?]

Ditto the Yankees. Does anyone really think the ceiling for Phil Hughes is higher than Johan Santana? Melky Cabrera is a nice player, but if you're the Yankees, you can buy a replacement for what he provides without much stress.

And the thing is, even if Hughes turns out to be as good as Santana, he won't be this year, or the next year. Trade him for Santana now, win with him this year and next year, and then - when Hughes' price tag becomes too much for the Twins to handle - repeat the process, and get Hughes back for the next big pitching prospect. And so on.
Not true, the Twins waited so long on this that all the Center Fielders the Yanks could buy were gone. They had also already signed Andy back up for another $16 million. If the Twins had moved in later November/December, they would have got Hughes, Melky and 2 more top prospects. The Yanks would have then signed Jones or Rowlands or some other Free Agent CF. Instead the Twins GM screwed the Pooch and waited too long.

Additionally, the Yanks only needed Santana to not go to Boston. This is fine. We keep 4 top prospects and no harm. Melky is worth a little more than you think. Ask RickJay if you don't believe me.

As a Yankee fan, the ideal situation was no trade and we could just be the Yankees and sign him as a free agent next year. Going to the Mets is fine by me. I already congratulated Minaya on a very good trade. He did great.

Finally your recipe for baseball business is what got the Yanks their bloated payroll. Believe it or not Cashman, the Younger Steinbrenner and most fans want to see the team develop and then keep kids. This is why Jeter & Mattingly are so beloved.

Jim

[RickJay]

Not true, the Twins waited so long on this that all the Center Fielders the Yanks could buy were gone. They had also already signed Andy back up for another $16 million. If the Twins had moved in later November/December, they would have got Hughes, Melky and 2 more top prospects. The Yanks would have then signed Jones or Rowlands or some other Free Agent CF. Instead the Twins GM screwed the Pooch and waited too long.

Additionally, the Yanks only needed Santana to not go to Boston. This is fine. We keep 4 top prospects and no harm. Melky is worth a little more than you think. Ask RickJay if you don't believe me.
I'm a huge, huge Melky Cabrera fan, and I have to admit you'd have to give me something tasty to get him.

Cabrera AND all your best pitching prospects for Santana is a bit much. I agree, however, that if the Red Sox actually had the Twins on the hook for Lester and Crisp they would be insane to not take it; similarly, I would gladly part with Melky Cabrera and one blue chip prospect (and some spare parts) to get Santana.

It all depends on what you have in reserve, and what that means for your long term potential. The Red Sox and Yankees are both built to win in 2008, but the Yankees, especially, need at least some of their blue chip talent to remain a solid team in 2009-2011, as the current roster is really old. The free agency pickings next year don't look exciting. Acquiring Santana at the cost of high value prospects would have made 2008 look great but going foward, as Posada, Jeter et al. age, the team could become a $200 million 77-85 team. With their prospects, they can maintain themselves as contenders while the old guys drop away. Assuming the Blue Jays collapse around 2009-2010, which they almost certainly will, and the Orioles and Rays continue to blow, the Yankees don't need to rebuild with their strong cast of youngsters already poking their way into the big leagues.

Conversely, the Red Sox have a somewhat younger core of championship-calibre players, and so look better in the two-to-four year range than the Yankees. Trading prospects for Santana would have made more sense for them.

The Mets made out like bandits; none of the players they traded away are painful losses. My concern for them, like the Yankees, is that beyond Wright and Reyes the lineup is old, although the pitching staff is a nice mix of youth and experience now. Effectively the Mets have replaced Tom Glavine with Johan Santana for a 2008 pennant run at the expense of Grade B prospects. I'd make that trade.

[RealityChuck]

The Yankees and Red Sox seemed to drop out because they just didn't want to have to pay the market rate for Santana. The Mets figured they could afford it: they're payroll is lower than the others, and Tom Glavine came off the books, so a $25 million a year contract to Santana works out to only about $15 million more a year.

Most rumors also said that the Red Sox were never serious about Santana, and only bid to keep him from going to the Yankees. Once the Yankees lost interest, the Sox did, too. Santana fell to the Mets because Minyana expected the Twins to become desperate as spring training approached and would be willing to take the deal, even if it wasn't the best.

[storyteller0910]

Consider the combined ceilings of Hughes and Kennedy (who were offered together, plus others, at one point if I remember correctly) or Hughes and Cabrera and whatever else was in the offer.


Oh, I don't think the Yankees should have given up Hughes and Kennedy together; there we agree. But if the Yankees had offered just Hughes and Cabrera, alone, say, Friday of last week, the Twins would have made the deal. I don't believe Hughes ceiling is any higher than Santana's current ability level. And Cabrera? I know RickJay loves him, but I don't really get it. OPS+ says he's been a below-average major league hitter for his career so far, and his OBP last year was .327. I don't think he'll ever slug above .450 or so in the majors, if that. He's a nice little player, but these are the Yankees. The San Francisco Giants are going to be just awful this year, and they're going to be paying Randy Winn - whose numbers have been uniformly superior to Cabrera's - $5 million plus to help them suck this year; you could get him for a mid-level prospect, I'd think.


Then consider the cost of signing Santana, at $25 million a year plus luxury tax, and, if necessary, a replacement for Cabrera or another pitcher, and contrast that to the number of wins Santana would have given them over what they already had. How many more games do they win, and at what price? From that standpoint, this could have been a very expensive trade.

They're going to be in a dogfight this year. The Red Sox haven't gotten any worse, and the Red Sox won the division last year. Daisuke Matsuzaka is very likely to improve in his second full season. Andy Pettite is likely to be not as good as last year; Jorge Posada is likely to decline. Any net increase in wins is useful to the Yankees, and Santana might be worth 4-5. And as for the cost, again, these are the Yankees. I don't really believe that they're anywhere close to being in a place where they can't afford to add payroll.

[storyteller0910]

Finally your recipe for baseball business is what got the Yanks their bloated payroll. Believe it or not Cashman, the Younger Steinbrenner and most fans want to see the team develop and then keep kids. This is why Jeter & Mattingly are so beloved.

Jim

There is a difference between trading kids for overpriced veterans on the tail end of their careers, and trading them for the best pitcher in baseball.

Look, Jim, you and I don't root for the same team, but we're both New York fans, and I think we understand one another. :) I want to ask you a question, and I'd like to hear your honest answer:

Let us suppose it is September 15, 2008. The Yankees and Red Sox have been trading back and forth for the divisional lead, but on the morning of the 15th the Red Sox are holding a three game lead. The Anaheim Angels have been the Anaheim Angels, and are running away with the West, but Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez are on pace for a combined 46 wins, and because they've gotten to pound the crap out of the terrible Rangers and terrible A's while the Yankees and Red Sox beat on one another and get stung by decent Toronto and Tampa teams (yes, I said it, a decent Tampa team), the Mariners are well ahead in the wild card chase. Whoever fails to win the AL East will miss the playoffs.

But there's hope! The Yanks and Sox are about to embark on one of those crazy stretches where they play seven times in eleven days. Win five of seven, and you're right back in it. But the Yankees lose game one of the first three-game series. Now you have to take five of the next six. Coming to the mound for Boston in game two is Josh Beckett.

Can you say - honestly - as both a Yankees fan and as a baseball fan, that you wouldn't be way more jazzed to see Santana pitching that game in place of Phil Hughes?

[Marley23]

But if the Yankees had offered just Hughes and Cabrera, alone, say, Friday of last week, the Twins would have made the deal.
They might have. But in prior negotiations, I think two more minor leaguers (Jeff Marquez was one) were also included.
I don't believe Hughes ceiling is any higher than Santana's current ability level.
It's unlikely.
He's a nice little player, but these are the Yankees. The San Francisco Giants are going to be just awful this year, and they're going to be paying Randy Winn - whose numbers have been uniformly superior to Cabrera's - $5 million plus to help them suck this year; you could get him for a mid-level prospect, I'd think.
Winn is 33 and Cabrera is 23, and last year was his first full season as the team's starting CF instead of a utility outfielder. The Yankees have had some success in the last few years in breaking their habit of overspending for older players and trading away prospects for them. Trading for Winn would be a step in the other direction.
They're going to be in a dogfight this year.
That's very likely.
The Red Sox haven't gotten any worse, and the Red Sox won the division last year. Daisuke Matsuzaka is very likely to improve in his second full season. Andy Pettite is likely to be not as good as last year; Jorge Posada is likely to decline.
Which is where Cano, Cabrera and the three young pitchers they've held onto come in.
I don't really believe that they're anywhere close to being in a place where they can't afford to add payroll.
I don't know what they can't afford, if anything, but their payroll is astronomical at this point, and adding Santana would have cost $30 million per year for six years. That's Alex Rodriguez money for a pitcher, who, good as he is, plays one-fifth as many games as Rodriguez does.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

I still stand by my earlier analysis where you always trade prospects for that proven big league ace.

I'm surprised that the Sox didn't just throw an offer that couldn't be refused at the Twins. That would have pretty much crushed the will of the Yankee fanbase, but now they're standing pat. Same with the Yankees, but let's see how it pans out.


I need more convincing on the invaluability of Melky Cabrera. I'll look some things up.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

When you think Melky Cabrera, do you think Johnny Dickshot? He's one of the players that Cabrera's stats most resemble.


Also, through age 22, there are some interesting names that has similar stats to his. Take Roberto Clemente, for example.

[RickJay]

I know RickJay loves him, but I don't really get it. OPS+ says he's been a below-average major league hitter for his career so far, and his OBP last year was .327.
He did slump badly at the end of the year but he's my pet prospect. His K/W ratio is good, he played better in 2006, he's young, and he has all the markers of long term success.

Don't get me wrong, I'd trade him and prospects for Santana. Just not TOO MANY prospects. You can't sell the whole farm.

[What Exit?]

There is a difference between trading kids for overpriced veterans on the tail end of their careers, and trading them for the best pitcher in baseball.

Look, Jim, you and I don't root for the same team, but we're both New York fans, and I think we understand one another. :) I want to ask you a question, and I'd like to hear your honest answer:

Let us suppose it is September 15, 2008. The Yankees and Red Sox have been trading back and forth for the divisional lead, but on the morning of the 15th the Red Sox are holding a three game lead. The Anaheim Angels have been the Anaheim Angels, and are running away with the West, but Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez are on pace for a combined 46 wins, and because they've gotten to pound the crap out of the terrible Rangers and terrible A's while the Yankees and Red Sox beat on one another and get stung by decent Toronto and Tampa teams (yes, I said it, a decent Tampa team), the Mariners are well ahead in the wild card chase. Whoever fails to win the AL East will miss the playoffs.

But there's hope! The Yanks and Sox are about to embark on one of those crazy stretches where they play seven times in eleven days. Win five of seven, and you're right back in it. But the Yankees lose game one of the first three-game series. Now you have to take five of the next six. Coming to the mound for Boston in game two is Josh Beckett.

Can you say - honestly - as both a Yankees fan and as a baseball fan, that you wouldn't be way more jazzed to see Santana pitching that game in place of Phil Hughes?
In 2008 in that situation, I agree, but it would be taking the short-term view.

The Yanks are getting old. The core is getting old. Hughes & Cabrera & two more AAA/AA pitchers were too much. I want to see the Yanks build a new young core to go with the aging core of Jeter, A-Rod, Rivera & Posada. The young pitchers, Cano & Cabrera are centerpieces to this new core. I hate the idea of staying old and staying expensive. If the Twins had moved in late November when the Yanks could still land a free agent CF, I would have move Cabrera & Kennedy and the two prospects. This would still have been a better deal than what the Mets gave the Twins.

I am happy with what the Yanks did, I understand what the Red Sox did as Santana's salary would have had the 40% luxury tax penalty on it. Their budget is not as high as the Yanks.

I think the Mets move was genius, I think they needed this trade more than the Yanks or Red Sox and I think they were in the best budget position to pay for it.

Great move for the Mets and the Twins struck out.

Jim (Remember the Yanks are suppose to be about building dynasties, not just winning for a year ;) )

[robardin]

In 2008 in that situation, I agree, but it would be taking the short-term view.

The Yanks are getting old. The core is getting old. ... I want to see the Yanks build a new young core to go with the aging core of Jeter, A-Rod, Rivera & Posada.
I have to say I agree with Cashman's approach here. The successes of the Yankees of the past 10 years were primarily built on a core home-grown talent that avoided riding the Steinbrenner Express out of town while he was suspended for his Winfield Follies. The high profile veterans brought in over the past ten years -- a pretty long sampling period -- by free agency and trades have, for the most part, not been nearly as integral or even successful as Yankees.

Consider Andy Petitte's good years in Houston from 2003-2006, after the Yankees elected to let him go and instead pursued Javier Vasquez, Carl Pavano and Randy Johnson in that time period. He could have been another home-grown, career Yankee with an excellent track record.

The fact is, the Yankees have a history of being able to develop and bring up high caliber players from their farm system. They can clearly pay market prices for the ones that reach the All-Star level. Why trade multiple blue-chippers while they're still cheap, and who can form a nucleus for a string of playoff runs to come, for ONE player who you'd then have to "mark to market" in their prime?

The Mets have the opposite history. Their farm system has not been very notable. Never mind the past 10-15 years, what players have the Mets brought up that have stayed with the team even the majority of their careers, much less their entire career, that have been of any note?

In short, for the Mets it makes a lot of sense to trade prospects for the current top star, as that has been their ticket to success in the past. Who did the Mets give up for Mike Piazza and Al Leiter, or Keith Hernandez or Gary Carter (to name a few) that have come back to haunt them?

Focusing on the recent past (past ten years):

Piazza - sent away Preston Wilson, Ed Yarnall, Geoff Goetz. Preston's been solid, but clearly Piazza was a franchise-turning player.

Leiter - A. J. Burnett, Jesus Sanchez, Robert Stratton. Burnett alone has "panned out", but has also been injury prone. All in all, the Mets got more quality, meaningful innings pitched out of Leiter (who was a terrific big game pitcher for the Mets) than Burnett has had so far.

Even their failed trades involving "blue chip" prospects haven't particularly come back to haunt them -- Alex Escobar for Robbie Alomar in 2003, or Octavio Dotel for Mike Hampton in 2000. Well, except for the incomprehensible Scott Kazmir for Victor "The Wrong One" Zambrano. Bleh.

In other words, of all the "top prospects" the Mets have sent away in the past ten years, only Kazmir, Preston Wilson and A. J. Burnett have amounted to anything, and the returns they got far exceeded what they would have from those players even including the Kazmir fiasco.

In contrast, not only have the Yankees brought up and kept a lot of top talent from their farm system, several of the prospects that they HAVE sent away in trades have had major league success. Mike Lowell, Nick Johnson and Eric Milton for example.

So if I were Brian Cashman, already had a 230MM payroll, and had a mandate to try to win today but also build for tomorrow... I'd avoid trading Hughes, Kennedy and Cabrera for Santana too. Chances are at least one, if not more of those top prospects will perform well, and if not, there's always money to throw around later.

I'm glad the Mets have kept Reyes, and hope that he and David Wright can be the potential home-grown stars the Mets have been missing in a long time. I hope neither of them turn out like Edgardo Alfonzo. I had great hopes he would be a career productive Met, is still one of my all-time favorite players, and was saddened when the Mets let him go after 2002 following two disappointing and injury-plagued seasons. I was even more sad to see the Mets proven right that he was in an irrecoverable decline, and ultimately had only 5 good years or so in the majors. Seeing him play from 1997-2000, when he was still in his late 20s, really made his sudden decline shocking.

[Wee Bairn]

The Yanks are really going to regret letting him get away, who are their starters now- a 40 year old Mussina, Wang, Pavano, a clean Pettitte and Hughes- I don't see that line-up striking fear in anyone.

[storyteller0910]

I have to say I agree with Cashman's approach here. The successes of the Yankees of the past 10 years were primarily built on a core home-grown talent that avoided riding the Steinbrenner Express out of town while he was suspended for his Winfield Follies. The high profile veterans brought in over the past ten years -- a pretty long sampling period -- by free agency and trades have, for the most part, not been nearly as integral or even successful as Yankees.

This statement has been repeated so often, by so many fans and writers, that it's become a meme, but I reject it as counterfactual. The Yankees success of the last 12 years - a period which encompasses their four World Series wins - has been built about equally on core home-grown talent and on trades and free-agent signings.

Paul O'Neill was acquired by trade for Roberto Kelly in 1992; his OBP in 1996, for the first Yankee WS title, was over .400. O'Neill would play and contribute to all four WS teams.

Wade Boggs, signed as a "big-name free agent," had an OBP of .389 for that 1996 team.

Tino Martinez, first baseman, was acquired with Jeff Nelson (outstanding set-up man) on December 7, 1995, for prospects Sterling Hitchcock and top prospect Russ Davis. He then played first base for every Yankees WS team, drove in more than 100 runs in every year but one for 7 consecutive years, and finished second in the voting for MVP in 1997.

David Cone, acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays midseason 1995 for two prospects and a retread.

John Wetteland, acquired from the Montreal Expos early in 1995 for hitting prospect Fernando Seguignol (considered a really good prospect at the time) and cash.

Chuck Knoblauch, acquired from the Minnesota Twins for pitching prospects Eric Milton and Danny Mota, infield prospect Cristian Guzman, and outfield prospect Brian Buchanan. Got on base at a .393 clip and scored 120 runs for the Yankees in 1998.

Roger "Needles in the Butt" Clemens, acquired for David Wells, infield prospect Homer Bush, and Graeme Lloyd in 1999.

David Justice - this one is pretty classic - acquired midseason from the Cleveland Indians for three players, all considered decent to excellent prospects at the time: Ricky Ledee, Jake Westbrook, and Zach Day. Went on to slug .585 for New York in their final World Series season.

Sure, the Yankees built around a strong home-grown core in Jeter, Posada, Pettite, Rivera, et al, but those trades described above were essential as well. Many of the guys traded away in those deals were prospects similar to Cabrera or Ian Kennedy. Jake Westbrook had been a first round pick, and Zach Day was going to be a top pitcher. Eric Milton was a top-flight prospect who the Yankees themselves had drafted in the first round two years before they traded him. But if the Yankees had exercised an overabundance of caution in these situations as they did in the Santana situation - if they had never traded for O'Neill, Martinez, Knoblauch, Justice, Wetteland - you can bet their dominance would have been abbreviated or would never have happened.

That's why I don't understand this trade. Phil Hughes might be the next Johan Santana, or he might be the next Todd Van Poppel. Johana Santana is Johan Santana, and the man is still on the good side of 30.

[What Exit?]

The Yanks are really going to regret letting him get away, who are their starters now- a 40 year old Mussina, Wang, Pavano, a clean Pettitte and Hughes- I don't see that line-up striking fear in anyone.
Do you actually follow the Yanks or do you just bitch about them? ;)

Pavano will not be pitching for the Yanks unless he gets of the DL. AS of right now, Pavano is not expected to start a game for the Yanks.

Wang & Pettitte are solid 1-2. Moose, Hughes, Chamberlain & Kennedy round out the 3-5 and a spare.

I think it will be Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Moose & Kennedy with Chamberlain getting a mix of starts and bullpen work to keep his innings to less than 170 for the year.

The Yanks have a pool of 7 more kids to fill in as starters if 2 of the 6 falter. I will name them if you so desire.

Jim

[RealityChuck]

That's why I don't understand this trade. Phil Hughes might be the next Johan Santana, or he might be the next Todd Van Poppel. Johana Santana is Johan Santana, and the man is still on the good side of 30.Money. Oddly enough for the Yankees, they are beginning to think that their high payroll is a problem. Santana will be the highest paid pitcher in baseball after Friday, and the Yanks are taking a long, hard look at how much they are paying.

Not to mention that the Pavano signing probably makes them a bit gun-shy about signing pitchers long-term.

And, ultimately, how many more games would Santana win them as compared to who they have now?

The Yankees made a good offer for Santana and if the Twins had said "yes" in December, he'd be wearing pinstripes. The Twins made a real blunder here -- misjudging the market until they were down to only one option that they had little choice but to take. I wouldn't be surprised to hear the Mets offer in December was better than what the Twins eventually accepted, since the Twins were over a barrel.

[Wee Bairn]

The last thing I heard on Pavano was he was "ahead of schedule" and could be ready by June- if that's no longer the case, my bad.

To me Wang is the only sure thing, and a team like the Yanks usually has four or five studs in the rotation, or at least guys they think are studs. And they usually don't have as their third starter a 40 year old coming off a season with an ERA over 5.

[What Exit?]

The last thing I heard on Pavano was he was "ahead of schedule" and could be ready by June- if that's no longer the case, my bad.

To me Wang is the only sure thing, and a team like the Yanks usually has four or five studs in the rotation, or at least guys they think are studs. And they usually don't have as their third starter a 40 year old coming off a season with an ERA over 5.
Pavano is clearly not in the Yankees plans for next year. If they get anything out of him, it will be considered a bonus. Nearly every article on the Yanks mention the 6 I listed.

Sorry for the zinger in the previous post, I just could not resist. I thought everyone knew how little the Yanks think of Pavano at this point. Other players openly mock him in the locker room.

Moose is not the 3 guy. In fact if Joba starts in the rotation, Moose will be the 5 guy.

The Yankee braintrust seem to be listing them as Wang, Pettitte, Hughes or Chamberlain and then Moose. Kennedy rounding out to 6th but many think he might already be better than Moose.

The talk has been about trying to keep Chamberlain's and the other kids innings on the low side. This is where the mix and match 6 starters in coming from.

Do a Google news search on Joba Chamberlain and you will see what I am babbling about.

Jim

[Wee Bairn]

I'm with you on Pavano and am aware of their low opinion of him, but if he were healthy I don't see them paying him 10+ million and not sending him out there to see if can produce anything, unless the other five were all doing well, and I can't imagine anyone trading for him :)

[robardin]

This statement has been repeated so often, by so many fans and writers, that it's become a meme, but I reject it as counterfactual. The Yankees success of the last 12 years - a period which encompasses their four World Series wins - has been built about equally on core home-grown talent and on trades and free-agent signings.
Yes, trades and free-agent signings were also important ingredients -- they always are. But the fact remains that many key players, particularly the "core" of players who were there for the entire ten year run, were home-grown, to a degree that I defy you to find on any other team in the Free Agency Era.

You listed the following key free agent signings or veteran trades: Paul O'Neill, Wade Boggs, Tino Martinez, David Cone, John Wetteland, Chuck Knoblauch, Roger Clemens, and David Justice. All played critical roles for one or more teams, but none of them were on the team for the entire run, if you consider the run as "eleven division titles and thirteen consecutive years of playoff appearances" (1995-2007) and not just World Series wins.

In contrast, Jeter, Posada, Pettite and Mariano Rivera have all been on the roster since 1996, and all have been multiple time All-Stars. Jeter and Rivera are almost certain HOFers, and the credentials for Posada and Pettite aren't terrible either. And let's not forget Bernie Williams, who was there for all but the last year of the period under discussion, and is also a career multiple-time All-Star/Gold Glove outfielder (though I don't think of him as HOF material myself).

If you look around other teams in baseball, that track record -- five elite players out of the same farm system in the past 12 years -- is very hard to match. And the Yankees are unique in having had the funding to keep them all, unlike the A's, Twins, Marlins or Expos.

So if I were a Yankees fan, given that the payroll is already at 230MM and the roster weighting to the above-30 age range, I would certainly be inclined to believe the GM that the pieces for the next dynasty are on tap, and that the team's talent evaluators have the ability to discern the wheat from the chaff with a fairly good level of precision.

Note the prospects (not counting veterans) that the Yankees gave up in trades for those key acquisitions you mentioned: Sterling Hitchcock, Russ Davis, Fernando Seguignol, Eric Milton, Danny Mota, Cristian Guzman, Brian Buchanan, Homer Bush, Graeme Lloyd, Ricky Ledee, Jake Westbrook, Zach Day.

Looking back, not exactly a list of future All-Stars like the ones they held on to, eh? Hitchcock and Milton have been serviceable, and Guzman had a good year or two in the majors, but that's really about it. Graeme Lloyd became a decent lefty specialist reliever for a while, during which time the Yankees simply went and got him back.

(Jeez, I'd better stop writing this essay now, or I might find myself falling to the Dark Side. Time to give a rub my Mr. Met bobblehead. And no, that's not a euphemism!)

Contrast that with the Mets, who have not really produced any notable players out of their farm system. Historically, it seems the Mets' best strategy is to hype and dump, it's paid off in gold before.

[AndyPolley]

Contrast that with the Mets, who have not really produced any notable players out of their farm system. Historically, it seems the Mets' best strategy is to hype and dump, it's paid off in gold before.
Hey! Didn't the Mets produce Nolan Ryan? Jeff Kent? Some guy named Doc?

I know...it's been a while. But...Current Mets who are home grown include David Wright, Jose Reyes, John Maine, Aaron Heilman & Joe Smith . Not the murderer's row of the core Yankees, but not bad either. That being said, I mostly agree with you. I'm also glad Santana didn't come down to trading Reyes. Not long ago, Dontrelle Willis could have been had for Wright...another non-trade I'm very happy with.

Actually, I think John Maine came over from Baltimore. But he was a minor league throw-in in that deal.

[RealityChuck]

It's hard to call Maine a "throw-in" -- he was one of two pitchers in the deal. The other was Jorge Julio, who at the time wasn't particularly great shakes (the Mets were smart enough to trade him for El Duque a few months later). But they wanted to dump Anna Benson ;), so picked up a couple of promising pitchers and hoped for the best.

But you're right that the team tended to trade instead of using homegrown. They have produced some good players who spent long portions of their careers in Queens -- Seaver, Koosman, Ed Kranepool, Lee Mazzilli, Bud Harrelson, Jon Matlack, Darrel Strawberry, Doc Gooden. (Of course, only Seaver was superstar quality for his entire career.) But the team has consistently traded away prospects for veterans over the years. I used to be able to go to every team's roster and find a former Met who was playing, and usually a team of such players was better than the team playing in Shea.

[robardin]

Hey! Didn't the Mets produce Nolan Ryan? Jeff Kent? Some guy named Doc?
Yeah, I was focusing mainly on players from the last 10 years. Jeff Kent did not come up with the Mets but with the Blue Jays, for who he debuted in 1992. The Mets made what could be thought of as an even dumber move than trading away Kent as a prospect, by trading FOR him in his rookie year while giving up a top pitcher still in his prime (David Cone), then trading him AND Jose Vizcaino (a useful utility infielder) a few years later for Carlos Baerga. Brrrr.

Of course in those mid-90s years, the Mets could hardly do anything right. What with Kent being considered a clubhouse cancer and Cone getting hit in the tabloids with weird stories of public masturbation, it was almost a case of damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Current Mets who are home grown include David Wright, Jose Reyes, John Maine, Aaron Heilman & Joe Smith. Not the murderer's row of the core Yankees, but not bad either. [...] Not long ago, Dontrelle Willis could have been had for Wright...another non-trade I'm very happy with.
Let's hope we can see these talents grow to become career mainstays with the Mets. As for Wright being trade bait earlier on, consider this: in the Robbie Alomar trade, the Indians had their pick of Mets' blue chip prospects, and took Alex Escobar over Jose Reyes. Imagine if they'd decided they wanted the infielder to replace Alomar. Whoaaa.

[RealityChuck]

Let's hope we can see these talents grow to become career mainstays with the Mets. As for Wright being trade bait earlier on, consider this: in the Robbie Alomar trade, the Indians had their pick of Mets' blue chip prospects, and took Alex Escobar over Jose Reyes. Imagine if they'd decided they wanted the infielder to replace Alomar. Whoaaa.But back then, Escobar looked like Cooperstown was only a formality. He was the best player in the Mets system by far and the first player anyone wanted from them. Escobar hurt himself in spring training that year and never got back on track.

[robardin]

But back then, Escobar looked like Cooperstown was only a formality. He was the best player in the Mets system by far and the first player anyone wanted from them. Escobar hurt himself in spring training that year and never got back on track.
I know. But it just goes to show what a crapshoot it is to try to cherry-pick prospects from an organization.

I saw in the transactions earlier this week that the Nationals signed him to a contract. He's still yet to play even half of a full season in the majors at age 29. Poor guy. Has anybody ever "come back" from frequent injuries in their "prime years" to then become a productive, everyday position player starting at the age of 30?

[Least Original User Name Ever]

This statement has been repeated so often, by so many fans and writers, that it's become a meme, but I reject it as counterfactual. The Yankees success of the last 12 years - a period which encompasses their four World Series wins - has been built about equally on core home-grown talent and on trades and free-agent signings.

Paul O'Neill was acquired by trade for Roberto Kelly in 1992; his OBP in 1996, for the first Yankee WS title, was over .400. O'Neill would play and contribute to all four WS teams.

Wade Boggs, signed as a "big-name free agent," had an OBP of .389 for that 1996 team.

Tino Martinez, first baseman, was acquired with Jeff Nelson (outstanding set-up man) on December 7, 1995, for prospects Sterling Hitchcock and top prospect Russ Davis. He then played first base for every Yankees WS team, drove in more than 100 runs in every year but one for 7 consecutive years, and finished second in the voting for MVP in 1997.

David Cone, acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays midseason 1995 for two prospects and a retread.

John Wetteland, acquired from the Montreal Expos early in 1995 for hitting prospect Fernando Seguignol (considered a really good prospect at the time) and cash.

Chuck Knoblauch, acquired from the Minnesota Twins for pitching prospects Eric Milton and Danny Mota, infield prospect Cristian Guzman, and outfield prospect Brian Buchanan. Got on base at a .393 clip and scored 120 runs for the Yankees in 1998.

Roger "Needles in the Butt" Clemens, acquired for David Wells, infield prospect Homer Bush, and Graeme Lloyd in 1999.

David Justice - this one is pretty classic - acquired midseason from the Cleveland Indians for three players, all considered decent to excellent prospects at the time: Ricky Ledee, Jake Westbrook, and Zach Day. Went on to slug .585 for New York in their final World Series season.

Sure, the Yankees built around a strong home-grown core in Jeter, Posada, Pettite, Rivera, et al, but those trades described above were essential as well. Many of the guys traded away in those deals were prospects similar to Cabrera or Ian Kennedy. Jake Westbrook had been a first round pick, and Zach Day was going to be a top pitcher. Eric Milton was a top-flight prospect who the Yankees themselves had drafted in the first round two years before they traded him. But if the Yankees had exercised an overabundance of caution in these situations as they did in the Santana situation - if they had never traded for O'Neill, Martinez, Knoblauch, Justice, Wetteland - you can bet their dominance would have been abbreviated or would never have happened.

That's why I don't understand this trade. Phil Hughes might be the next Johan Santana, or he might be the next Todd Van Poppel. Johana Santana is Johan Santana, and the man is still on the good side of 30.



Bolding mine.


Which is why you always trade prospects for proven aces.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

The last thing I heard on Pavano was he was "ahead of schedule" and could be ready by June- if that's no longer the case, my bad.

To me Wang is the only sure thing, and a team like the Yanks usually has four or five studs in the rotation, or at least guys they think are studs. And they usually don't have as their third starter a 40 year old coming off a season with an ERA over 5.


You should ask Carl (http://dicegay.com/) yourself.

[RickJay]

DoWang & Pettitte are solid 1-2.
Boy, you may be in for an unpleasant season. Pettite's old, and if Wang continues to be successful without striking out five guys per nine innings he'll be the first starting pitcher in my lifetime to do it.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

It Pettite were right handed, you'd (What Exit?! )be saying that he's at the clear downside of his career.


Especially since he doesn't have the drugs anymore. I expect a bad year from him.

[RealityChuck]

I saw in the transactions earlier this week that the Nationals signed him to a contract. He's still yet to play even half of a full season in the majors at age 29. Poor guy. Has anybody ever "come back" from frequent injuries in their "prime years" to then become a productive, everyday position player starting at the age of 30?Obviously, not many. Paul Wilson had arm troubles and dropped to the minors (with only a handful of appearances) until he finally made it back at age 28.

But Santana has signed, so the deal is complete. I'm looking forward to 2008. :)

[What Exit?]

So it looks like the final deal was six years, $137.5M. The Mets can afford it, but this was a steep price. I guess the argument is that he is clearly worth more than Zito.

Boy, you may be in for an unpleasant season. Pettite's old, and if Wang continues to be successful without striking out five guys per nine innings he'll be the first starting pitcher in my lifetime to do it.
Well you did say basically the same thing before last season about Wang, I will still take the wait and see approach. I think his Ks will continue to slowly climb and with back-to-back 19 wins season, I might as well expect another very good season. You might well be right or he may buck the trend and also continue to improve as a pitcher bringing up his strikeouts.

Pettitte pitch pretty darn well last year. The bullpen wasted several very good efforts by him and his final record was not too bad. I am guilty of believing Hughes is going to have a very good season this year in addition.
It Pettite were right handed, you'd (What Exit?! )be saying that he's at the clear downside of his career.

Especially since he doesn't have the drugs anymore. I expect a bad year from him.
Do you really think he was using any of the drugs last season? Yes, he is on the downside of his career, but I think he has one more good year. He pitch well last year.

Jim

[RickJay]

Well you did say basically the same thing before last season about Wang, I will still take the wait and see approach. I think his Ks will continue to slowly climb and with back-to-back 19 wins season
Aw, c'mon, W.E., you know as well as I do that the 19 wins are because he pitches for the best offense in baseball, not because he's an elite pitcher. Not that he pitched badly - his ERA was +121, which is really good, but it wasn't even close to the league leaders. The wins have a lot to do with pitching for a six-run-a-game offense.

I'm a lot happier with the Blue Jay pitching/defense combo than you should be with New York's, as evidenced by the numbers. (I'm not sure how much of the difference in 2007 was actually pitching, and how much was defense; there was a large difference in DER.) The Yankees won in 2007 for one big reason: Hitting. That will be their advantage in 2008, too, and if the pitching is to get better it'll have to be the youth, where there are lots of prospects.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

So it looks like the final deal was six years, $137.5M. The Mets can afford it, but this was a steep price. I guess the argument is that he is clearly worth more than Zito.


Well you did say basically the same thing before last season about Wang, I will still take the wait and see approach. I think his Ks will continue to slowly climb and with back-to-back 19 wins season, I might as well expect another very good season. You might well be right or he may buck the trend and also continue to improve as a pitcher bringing up his strikeouts.

Pettitte pitch pretty darn well last year. The bullpen wasted several very good efforts by him and his final record was not too bad. I am guilty of believing Hughes is going to have a very good season this year in addition.

Do you really think he was using any of the drugs last season? Yes, he is on the downside of his career, but I think he has one more good year. He pitch well last year.

Jim


To be perfectly frank, I have no clue. He said he did take them at one time, and unfortunately, I still think he's on them until it's proven otherwise. Let's see how this year plays out.

Pettite isn't great, but he's not bad. He's above average, but not by much. He's left-handed and he pitches for the Yankees. That's worth a fistful of wins right there.

[storyteller0910]

And now that the contact is signed...

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

and also:

HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

I am such a happy fan this morning. This is such a great trade from the fan's perspective, basically no matter how it works out.

I mean, it's great from a baseball perspective, of course. Barring injury, Santana probably adds 3-4 expected wins over what the Mets got from Tom Glavine last year, which would have been enough to make the playoffs. He's probably worth 6 wins over whatever excruciating stiff they would have started in his place had they not made the move. Since they finished only a game out last year, they haven't gotten significantly worse in any other aspect, and the Phillies have gotten marginally worse overall, I think the Mets have to be considered the favorite in the NL East going into the season.

But you know, even beyond the baseball, it's a really great thing for this fanbase. I can't overstate how painful it was watching the Mets choke and die in September last year. The only meaningful transaction they managed before this one was trading Lastings Milledge, who they told us for five years was a can't-miss top prospect, for a backup catcher and fourth outfielder. Going into the season with the exact group of guys responsible for the collapse last year would have been depressing; Mets' fans have been mostly lifeless the entire offseason for that reason.

This trade gives the fans a bit of life, because even if the team falls short, we'll get to watch the best pitcher in baseball work out of a strong pitcher's park maybe 20 times this season. It's something about which to get excited just as baseball fans, never mind as Mets fans.

[What Exit?]

Aw, c'mon, W.E., you know as well as I do that the 19 wins are because he pitches for the best offense in baseball, not because he's an elite pitcher. Not that he pitched badly - his ERA was +121, which is really good, but it wasn't even close to the league leaders. The wins have a lot to do with pitching for a six-run-a-game offense.

I'm a lot happier with the Blue Jay pitching/defense combo than you should be with New York's, as evidenced by the numbers. (I'm not sure how much of the difference in 2007 was actually pitching, and how much was defense; there was a large difference in DER.) The Yankees won in 2007 for one big reason: Hitting. That will be their advantage in 2008, too, and if the pitching is to get better it'll have to be the youth, where there are lots of prospects.
Don't worry, I have seen nothing that shows Wang is an ace, but I think he and Pettitte are good for another 32 wins together. They got 34 last year. Many if not most Yankee fans are hoping it is Hughes and Chamberlain that step up to be the Ace(s) and the post season pitchers.

Believe it or not, I am not panicked by the idea the Yanks might fail to make the playoffs this year. I said it last year and I'll say it this year. The Yanks are in the middle of a rebuilding phase and we are probably the only team that can go through a rebuilding phase and still compete for a playoff spot.

We need to get this team younger and cheaper. I think Cashman is the right GM to make this happen and it gets easier with "The Boss" retired. I think Joe G is the perfect manager to lead the Yanks into this new phase. After 3 more years, it is very likely that Jeter will be the only Yankee left of the 90's dynasty. If Cashman does it right, there will be a fresh core around him of guys from the farm and a few key free agents and a few key trades and of course A-Rod who will hopefully be seriously assaulting the Home Run chart at that point.

Ideally, Wang will end up the solid 3 pitcher in the rotation behind Hughes and Chamberlain or Fill in the Blank prospect we haven't really seen yet.
I am sure there will be one big name, over prices Free agent or trade pitcher in the mix too.

Or the Yanks could continue the formula of bringing over priced aging players that don't actually play defense well or cannot pitch anymore or have no track record of being able to perform under pressure. (Anyone want Farnsworth? Cashman's worst free agent signing?)

Jim

[Least Original User Name Ever]

Put me on record for saying that Chamberlain will NOT be the ace.

[What Exit?]

Put me on record for saying that Chamberlain will NOT be the ace.
Cool, I hope it is as accurate as your complaints about a certain 4th year quarterback.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

I've conceded that Eli has had a very good postseason thus far and I hope I am wrong about him. The league needs a lot more good quarterbacks roaming around, but I just haven't seen it from Eli yet on a consistent level.

With regards to Chamberlain, I haven't seen enough control out of him to be a viable starter. I'll say that this year, the most slid pitcher for the Yankees will be Grizzled Veteran To Be Picked Up For Free Around the Trade Deadline. Wang will have a good year, though. He's confused me. He shows flashes of complete dominance, and sometimes he looks completely hittable, but I think last year was an aberration bcause of that hammy injury that sank his first half.

[RickJay]

We need to get this team younger and cheaper. I think Cashman is the right GM to make this happen and it gets easier with "The Boss" retired. I think Joe G is the perfect manager to lead the Yanks into this new phase.
I just wonder what will happen in Yankeeland if there's a couple of 83-79 years and the papers are howling for blood and the fans stop going to the ballpark (Unlike some places, Yankee fans have demonstrated a willingness to stay away in droves if the product on the field is not to their satisfaction - which in the long run is probably good for a franchise.) Will the Steinbrenner 2.0's have the cajones to stick with it, or will they react to the mob? 13 straight playoff appearances may have created an unreasonable expectation; if Yankee ownership is willing to ride that out I think they'll be fine, but if they arent, well, it will be as you describe, and potentially could devolve into the way it was circa 1990.

After 3 more years, it is very likely that Jeter will be the only Yankee left of the 90's dynasty.
I think Mariano Rivera could pitch until he's 65. The man is a machine. Last year he had a 6-to-1 K/BB ratio.

Did you know that among all the pitchers in the entire history of baseball (who pitched a significant number of innings) Mariano Rivera is, batter-for-batter, the best? His career ERA+ is 194. Nobody else is even close. (Johnathan Papelbon's is like 265, but he hasn't pitched very many innings yet.)

And you think Farnsworth was a worse signing than Carl Pavano?

[What Exit?]

I just wonder what will happen in Yankeeland if there's a couple of 83-79 years and the papers are howling for blood and the fans stop going to the ballpark (Unlike some places, Yankee fans have demonstrated a willingness to stay away in droves if the product on the field is not to their satisfaction - which in the long run is probably good for a franchise.) Will the Steinbrenner 2.0's have the cajones to stick with it, or will they react to the mob? 13 straight playoff appearances may have created an unreasonable expectation; if Yankee ownership is willing to ride that out I think they'll be fine, but if they arent, well, it will be as you describe, and potentially could devolve into the way it was circa 1990.


I think Mariano Rivera could pitch until he's 65. The man is a machine. Last year he had a 6-to-1 K/BB ratio.

Did you know that among all the pitchers in the entire history of baseball (who pitched a significant number of innings) Mariano Rivera is, batter-for-batter, the best? His career ERA+ is 194. Nobody else is even close. (Johnathan Papelbon's is like 265, but he hasn't pitched very many innings yet.)

And you think Farnsworth was a worse signing than Carl Pavano?
It is weird, but I actually went more often before 1998. It was much easier to get tickets and a lot cheaper. Since 98 the mosts games I have been to in a year is 13. In 1996 I was at 22. I would often just run up on the spur of the moment and get a cheap scalped ticket close to game time. However, you are right, those filling the stadium are fair weather fans and non-fans. Often the same people that used to buy all the Knicks seats when Ewing was still there and the Knicks were the hottest ticket in town. The stadium has a very different feel in the last 10 years compared to the rest of my life.

I think Cashman only needs two more seasons to pull this all together. It is not like they are not going to spend no money on free agents and trades. I think the Steinbrenner Sons will give him two years if they are playing meaningful games in September. They won't give him three years.

Cool stats on Mo. My friends and I joke that he needs to pitch into his 50s as he is the one player that we cannot replace.

I think Pavano was a worse signing, but it was pushed by the Tampa brain trust and was not Cashman's choice. Farnsworth was someone he wanted to bring in.

Sheffield, Giambi & Randy Johnson are a few more that Cashman just did the details on, but did not suggest. He did make the trade for Vasquez, I was as surprised as he was that it failed.

Jim