4 Days Until Pitchers and Catchers!

[Southern Yankee]

Spring training starts in 4 days (for some teams.) How do you think your team will do this season?

For the Yankees, it will all depend on the young arms. If Hughes, Kennedy and Chamberlain produce, they have a chance to challenge the Red Sox. If not, Joe Giriardi's first season will be rocky.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

The Tigers will be very good again. At worst, they'll be the wild card.

[Southern Yankee]

Yes, the Tigers are LOADED. I expect them to win their division. I'm not sure how Willis will do against American League hitters, but Cabrera is going to light it up.

[Ichbin Dubist]

I'd be a lot more excited by that if it wasn't snowing right now. I'd be a LOT more excited if I thought spring training would force Roger Clemens' injection site preferences and his trainer's frickin' beer can full of medical waste off the back pages. Not much chance of that.

The Mets will have better pitching and marginally (or possibly significantly) worse offense. I would guess that Reyes and Wright will hold steady, the old dudes will all be older dudes, the new dudes will be not much above replacement level, and the bench will still be good because Endy Chavez and Marlon Anderson are magical. Only a crazy person would guess what a bullpen would do.

Recent Mets STs seem to feature on old guy trying to mount a comeback, like David Cone and Andres Gallaraga. I don't know who the non-roster invitees are this year.

And hey, Yankiee fans, it's been like 8 weeks since we've heard the phrase "Joba rules." I'm ready for it all to start again. Are they readying the evil robot midges in Cleveland? Good. And Chris Woodward is a Yankee! I like him.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

I crapped myself when I saw that trade. I really liked Andrew Miller and they said they wouldn't trade Maybin for the world. I didn't like giving up all those prospects for Renteria either. I think we'd have been great with signing David Eckstein (good top-of-the-order hitter, as well, which is what we need). Willis is a lefty and will keep the hitters guessing in the beginning because of his unorthodox throwing style. If Cabrera can whoop ass, he'll be one of those guys who will go down in Detroit sports history. He'll be one of those guys that we'll love forever and unconditionally.

[mshar253]

The Phillies, tragically, have seemed to take a big step backwards after our historic comeback late last season. A lot of Philadelphians are excited that Brett Myers is back in the starting rotation. This strategy, in the minds of most people, seems to be a good replacement for having gone out and gotten a quality starting pitcher; I disagree. Brett Myers has never proven that he has the mental make-up to be able to start effectively, and I think that Brad Lidge as the closer is very suspect.

Aaron Rowand is a big loss; I doubt that he will be able to reproduce last year's offensive numbers with San Fran, but his defense and intangible locker room qualities will be missed. The Phils' acquisition for a replacement outfielder was Geoff Jenkins; a guy who hit .255 last year. Same goes with new third basman Pedro Feliz: people are excited that we now have an everyday player at the hot corner who hit 20 homers last year and supposedly has a great glove, but they're overlooking that he hit .253 last year. Personally, the platoons of Jayson Werth/Geoff Jenkins and Pedro Feliz/Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms do not do a lot for me.

Jimmy Rollins needs to have a season comparable to last year's in order for the Phillies to have a chance; he cannot fall into the same trap that Ryan Howard did last year, following his MVP season: go on a world tour and completely forget about coming into the season in shape. Speaking of Howard, he cannot suffer the same offensive lull with which he began last yar. Pat Burrell, succeeding the best half-season of his career last year (i.e. not sucking), needs to keep it up. Chase Utley seems to be the smallest question mark on the team, as I believe he will continue to be the best second baseman in baseball.

Our bullpen should be slightly improved, even with Myers gone and Lidge in. JC Romero was great after the Phillies acquired him last year; Tom Gordon will have less pressure on him, and should be a sixth or seventh inning guy; Ryan Madsen pitched well last year before getting hurt; Geoff Geary, thankfully, is gone. If the "change of scenery theory" proves true for Lidge, this aspect of the Phillies will be much improved.

My verdict, though? The Phillies end in a distant second to the Mets.

[RickJay]

The Blue Jays cannot possibly hit any worse than they did last year, but the ceiling for the offense is a lot lower than many Jay fans think it is. Even if Scott Rolen comes back from his shoulder surgery, I think a high end estimate would be a slightly above average offense.

The defense is very good; it was arguably the best in the game last year except Boston. There's no reason to believe that will be any different this year; a slight downgrade at short with Eckstein taking innings from McDonald, but an upgrade at third with Rolen, and likely better defense in left field with Johnson playing a bit more. Catching remains a weakness, but overall the fielding's awesome.

Pitching? Last year's team allowed fewer runs than any other in the league except Boston, in part due to the excellent defense but also because a lot of young pitchers really progressed. The top four starters all had good peripherals, none are old, and all are reported healthy, so if injuries don't hit, they COULD actually win 95 games. The bullpen appears deep.

My concern, however, is the hitting. It could be good enough for the pitching and D to win 95 games, but it could also be bad again. Eckstein is assumed to be a big upgrade at short (he cannot possibly hit worse than McDonald, or even nearly as badly) but he's old now, Rolen is getting old and is injury prone, Thomas is very old, Zaun is old, Stairs is old, and the only really high ceiling player is Rios. The only players I would EXPECT improvement from are Hill (who has some more potential) and Wells (who just is better than he was in 2007.) But other than that there is potential for offsetting losses.

I suspect the team will pitch and field well again, but hit poorly again. I would set my over/under at 87-75, whcih was their Pythagorean projection last year, which is not coincidence; I expect slight offensive improvement but the pitching to come back to earth just a little (and the team to meet their projection, which they did not in 2007.) They could win as many as 97 if the offense surprises, and could win as few as 77 if the pitching staff has a few arm blowouts (normally I'd say a team could dive by more than that but Toronto has a lot of pitching depth.)

Likelihood of the postseason, 10-15%.

[dalej42]

Oakland has traded away their entire team. Rebuilding will be painful.

The Diamondbacks should contend in the NL West. What a race last year was!

[Southern Yankee]

What was the deal with Rolen and LaRussa in St. Louis? Who was the "bad" guy? Is Rolen difficult? I always got the impression he was a pretty good guy. Why did LaRussa try to ruin him?

[Least Original User Name Ever]

The Blue Jays cannot possibly hit any worse than they did last year, but the ceiling for the offense is a lot lower than many Jay fans think it is. Even if Scott Rolen comes back from his shoulder surgery, I think a high end estimate would be a slightly above average offense.

The defense is very good; it was arguably the best in the game last year except Boston. There's no reason to believe that will be any different this year; a slight downgrade at short with Eckstein taking innings from McDonald, but an upgrade at third with Rolen, and likely better defense in left field with Johnson playing a bit more. Catching remains a weakness, but overall the fielding's awesome.

Pitching? Last year's team allowed fewer runs than any other in the league except Boston, in part due to the excellent defense but also because a lot of young pitchers really progressed. The top four starters all had good peripherals, none are old, and all are reported healthy, so if injuries don't hit, they COULD actually win 95 games. The bullpen appears deep.

My concern, however, is the hitting. It could be good enough for the pitching and D to win 95 games, but it could also be bad again. Eckstein is assumed to be a big upgrade at short (he cannot possibly hit worse than McDonald, or even nearly as badly) but he's old now, Rolen is getting old and is injury prone, Thomas is very old, Zaun is old, Stairs is old, and the only really high ceiling player is Rios. The only players I would EXPECT improvement from are Hill (who has some more potential) and Wells (who just is better than he was in 2007.) But other than that there is potential for offsetting losses.

I suspect the team will pitch and field well again, but hit poorly again. I would set my over/under at 87-75, whcih was their Pythagorean projection last year, which is not coincidence; I expect slight offensive improvement but the pitching to come back to earth just a little (and the team to meet their projection, which they did not in 2007.) They could win as many as 97 if the offense surprises, and could win as few as 77 if the pitching staff has a few arm blowouts (normally I'd say a team could dive by more than that but Toronto has a lot of pitching depth.)

Likelihood of the postseason, 10-15%.


I respect and love the hell out of Roy Halladay and would love to see the day the Jays are completely out of the race, just before the trade deadline, and he gets traded to the Tigers.

[silenus]

The Dodgers have a chance to be World Series winners or total goats this year, as usual. I think Joe Torre will fit in quite well out here on the West Coast. He has some interesting decisions to make, and some young talent to work with. He also has a big problem facing him with the starting rotation. Penny, Lowe, Billingsley, Kuroda and.... Therein lies the rub. I don't trust Schmidt to be able to get the ball to the plate, much less win 15 games. Loiza sucks, and Wolfe is a goner. We have a couple of good young arms in Kershaw and McDonald, but they don't have the seasoning yet to really fill that fifth spot. The outfield looks good. Pierre, Jones and Kemp give us good defensive production and speed on the basepaths. If Jones can do anything this year better than last, he'll be a welcome addition to the lineup. The infield is fairly solid, with Loney and Kent holding down the right side. Furcal seems to be healthy, which could give him one of his best seasons ever. If not, we have Chin-lung Hu to fill in. Not much of a hitter, but a Golden Glove quality shortstop. Third base....there's where Torre will have his work cut out for him. Do you start Garciaparra, who has the experience and defensive skills, but can't hit worth a damn anymore, or give the job to LaRoche, who is still on the young side? Personally I'd switch Nomar into a utility position and let him work as needed.

We have to fill that 5th spot in the rotation with talent if we want to go all the way this year. Time, as always, will tell.

Go Big Blue!

[Southern Yankee]

It's an odd feeling for a Yankee fan to hope the Dodgers do well, but I think so highly of Joe Torre that I will be rooting for them this year.

[spooje]

Third base....there's where Torre will have his work cut out for him. Do you start Garciaparra, who has the experience and defensive skills, but can't hit worth a damn anymore, or give the job to LaRoche, who is still on the young side? Personally I'd switch Nomar into a utility position and let him work as needed.

Garciaparra will be great if he can stay healthy. This team needs a leader.

I have high hopes for Schmidt. Even if gets back to 90%, he'll be a good 5th starter.

I'm hoping that Jones's last season was a fluke and that Pierre learns how to hit.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

God, I forgot how good it was to have a good baseball team.

Warm fuzzies. I haz dem.

[spooje]

God, I forgot how good it was to have a good baseball team.

Warm fuzzies. I haz dem.
Yep, the Tigers chances look damn exciting.

[Hostile Dialect]

"Pitchers and Catchers"...so that's what you kids are calling it these days, eh?

[silenus]

Garciaparra will be great if he can stay healthy. This team needs a leader.

I have high hopes for Schmidt. Even if gets back to 90%, he'll be a good 5th starter.

I'm hoping that Jones's last season was a fluke and that Pierre learns how to hit.

I'm afraid Nomar will never be the hitter he was, but his leadership skills are definitely needed. Kent is just too damn abrasive to fill that role well. I've given up on Schmidt. Trade the has-been for someone who doesn't hurt themselves getting out of bed. Jones will be there when we need him...last year was last year. Pierre doesn't need to hit so much as he needs to be able to draw walks. He's a jackrabbit, so having him bat first or second in the lineup will put the pressure on opposing pitchers to keep him off the basepaths. The move to Left will also minimize his total lack of an arm.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

Yep, the Tigers chances look damn exciting.


Really, the fuzzies have been there for a couple years now.

[What Exit?]

Spring training starts in 4 days (for some teams.) How do you think your team will do this season?

For the Yankees, it will all depend on the young arms. If Hughes, Kennedy and Chamberlain produce, they have a chance to challenge the Red Sox. If not, Joe Giriardi's first season will be rocky.
To continue the Yankee part...

The Offense will make up for many mistakes. The Bullpen is still a question mark and the rotation is at least headed by Wang & Pettitte. The two should probably combine for about 32 wins on their own. Moose is still in the mix. I think Chamberlain will end up as the 8th inning guy this year.

A-Rod should have another good year. Jeter played a good part of the season with a leg injury he never talked about. Hopefully he is 100% most of this season. Cano and Melky should still be improving. I doubt Posada can match last year, but he will still put up a plus offensive year for a catcher and this year we have a really solid backup from the start in Molina.

Bobby Abreu is plaing for a contract and Matsui & Damon will be in some odd rotation of various OF positions & DH. Giambi will mostly be a DH with some 1b play. Duncan is already working with Tino Martinez with hopes he will earn the everyday 1b job. Wilson Betemit should provide a solid backup for the entire infield.

The real strength of the Yanks might be the minor leaguers.
Watch for contribution from the AAAA prospects: Brian Bruney, Chris Britton, Jeff Karstens, Darrell Rasner, Sean Henn(L), Edwar Ramirez & Jose Veras

Ross Ohlendorf has a chance of winning relief job to start the season.

In queue to help out are Humberto Sanchez, Jeffrey Marquez, Steven White, Tyler Clippard & Chase Wright.

Rivera will of course anchor the pen.
LaTroy Hawkins & Kyle Farnsworth will be in the bullpen, I am not excited about either.

Kei Igawa and American Idle Carl Pavano could resurface.
I think Kei might make a good lefty reliever. I would not be upset if Pavano never pitched again.

Jim

[Southern Yankee]

Originally posted by What Exit?

...American Idle Carl Pavano...

Effing brilliant, Jim. Made me snort.

[What Exit?]

Effing brilliant, Jim. Made me snort.
Tis' not mine, I heard it somewhere on Sports Talk radio. But, I am glad to pass it along.

[ZipperJJ]

The Indians have signed a lot of the guys from last season's team. I'm pretty sure we'll have the same team as before, which is great because they took it to da house.

Honestly, as a Cleveland fan I tend to expect mediocrity and enjoy being pleasantly surprised when one of our teams do well. I still listen to every game, regardless and just enjoy the season.

So, I don't have anything exciting to say, other than I CAN'T WAIT!!! :D :D :D

[Yookeroo]

Pierre doesn't need to hit so much as he needs to be able to draw walks. He's a jackrabbit, so having him bat first or second in the lineup will put the pressure on opposing pitchers to keep him off the basepaths.

Not a difficult proposition, so not much pressure.

[ElvisL1ves]

I've been on this board too long. My first thought on seeing that title was that it was about gay sex.

Hasn't Carl Pavano passed Albert Belle's record for consecutive years on the DL yet?

The Sawx are set, now that Schilling's cleared a roster spot for Buchholz, and if they keep Crisp around. Even if they don't, they only need some bench reinforcements, not regulars.

But that Japan trip is gonna suck. The Yankees never really reovered from it the year they went over. And Dice-K may not even go - his wife is due then.

[Southern Yankee]

Originally posted by ElvisL1ves
I've been on this board too long. My first thought on seeing that title was that it was about gay sex.

It figures that a Red Sox fan would see a baseball term and think "gay sex."

Just kidding! Mods, I assume there's some leeway on non-Pit insults 'tween Yanks and Sox fans?

[RealityChuck]

As a Mets fan, I'm excited about the team's chances. With Santana, their starting pitching is solid (though they need an extra arm in case of emergencies) and their offense is going to be good. The nucleus of Wright, Beltran, and Reyes is solid, and Delgado should do well as long as he stays healthy (a look at his stats showed, he slumped in the first half of the season, but was hitting well in the second half). Church is about as good as Milledge was last year in RF, and Alou can still hit.

The big question is the bullpen, which is the main cause of the Collapse. But Santana should eat innings and if Duaner Sanchez finally makes it back, they'll be fine.

[ElvisL1ves]

Yes, one does associate that with the Spankees, doesn't one? :D

Maybe your guys can eventually win a World Series in this millenium. Not until their starting rotation reaches puberty, sure, but maybe some year.

[Southern Yankee]

Here we go with the "this century" bidness.... When your team only wins in the first 2 decades of a century I guess you need to hang you hat on something... (like Ted Williams' frozen head...)

[What Exit?]

Just kidding! Mods, I assume there's some leeway on non-Pit insults 'tween Yanks and Sox fans?
Don't worry, everyone is allowed to insult Yankee fans in any forum.

We are allowed to insult Red Sox fans and really obnoxious Mets fans, but they seem to be missing on this board. No shortage of obnoxious Red Sox fans though.
Yes, one does associate that with the Spankees, doesn't one? :D

Maybe your guys can eventually win a World Series in this millenium. Not until their starting rotation reaches puberty, sure, but maybe some year.
Maybe not this year, but we are just 'rearming' for our next run.

[ElvisL1ves]

Hey, we even named a highway tunnel after Ted Williams here - tubular, steel, cold, it fits.

[Thudlow Boink]

What was the deal with Rolen and LaRussa in St. Louis? Who was the "bad" guy? Is Rolen difficult? I always got the impression he was a pretty good guy. Why did LaRussa try to ruin him?Take a look at this article from the Sporting News: Blue Jays need the aw-shucks Rolen (http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=340422). If it's a fair representation, Rolen can be a pretty good guy, but he can also be "distrustful, easily angered, carrying a grudge and eager to place blame on others when things go wrong," which seems to be what happened in St. Louis. As far as I know, none of the other current Cardinals have a problem with LaRussa, though he does seem to be the type who's quick to criticize players that he doesn't think have the right attitude.

In the wake of the Rolen trade and everything else that has been going on, the Cardinals for 2008 are a huge question mark (or maybe a lot of question marks). I can imagine them doing very well indeed, but I can also imagine them doing not so well.

[Southern Yankee]

Thanks, that was a great article. It seems Rolen has trouble with hard-line guys like LaRussa and Bowa, but gets on okay with guys like Francona and Fregosi. Sometimes guys respond well to certain types of management, I guess. I always thought Rolen had the talent to be one of the greats. I hope he finds some success in Toronto.

[Enfant Terrible]

*sigh*

My White Sox traded Jon Garland and are keeping Jose Contreras. This looks to be ugly. And I'm not talking about winnin' ugly either.

And for the love of Og, why is Juan Uribe still on the roster when the only significant move to date has been to acquire Orlando Cabrera?

I hope for lots of surprises from the kids... but it looks like third place this year. Yuck.

[RickJay]

Take a look at this article from the Sporting News: Blue Jays need the aw-shucks Rolen (http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=340422). If it's a fair representation, Rolen can be a pretty good guy, but he can also be "distrustful, easily angered, carrying a grudge and eager to place blame on others when things go wrong,"
Joe DiMaggio was all those things, and won the World Series nine times.

I'm sure Rolen will get along fine with John Gibbons, who isn't quite the control freak Tony LaRussa is, but what matters in the end is whether you score more runs than the opposing team, not whether there's warm fuzzies in the clubhouse; there's very little evidence getting along in the locker room has much to do with success in baseball. Rolen hit 8 home runs last year. No matter how well he gets along with management, if his power production is that bad in 2008, the Blue Jays are in serious trouble.

[gonzomax]

Hey, we even named a highway tunnel after Ted Williams here - tubular, steel, cold, it fits.
Best hitter I ever saw.

[Kerrigan]

The Rangers have made several exciting trades this off-season, but my hopes for the team this year aren't high. (You know, set your hopes low, and then at least you won't be disappointed...)

I'll be at Spring Training in a month! I'm counting down the days.

[gonzomax]

Tigers have problems. Todd Jones,getting old...Zumaya ..big question mark...Kenny Rogers questionable. They may not be as good as last year. Thay may still win the pennant. They are pumping up like the Yankees. Pitching wins. When the Tigers won 2 years ago they had the best pitching.

[RickJay]

Tigers have problems. Todd Jones,getting old...Zumaya ..big question mark...Kenny Rogers questionable. They may not be as good as last year. Thay may still win the pennant. They are pumping up like the Yankees. Pitching wins. When the Tigers won 2 years ago they had the best pitching.
In fact, the last three American League champions all had the league's best ERA, and it has been eight seasons since a team not in the top three won the pennant:

Boston, 2007 - #1
Detroit, 2006 - #1
Chicago, 2005 - #1 (tied with Cleveland, though Cleveland was better in ERA+)
Boston, 2004 - #3
New York, 2003 - #3
Anaheim, 2002 - #2
New York, 2001 - #3
New York, 2000 - #7

It does indeed appear that pitching (and defense; a lot of what you think is pitching is really good defense) has been winning pennants in the AL lately, which should give extra hope to Boston, Toronto and Anaheim, maybe Cleveland.

This seemed not to be quite as true in the NL.

[gonzomax]

Nah, big leaguers can almost all field very well. A good pitcher can win anywhere. I have played softball in leagues with ex major leaguers and near misses. Their skill level is amazing. And this is guys not noted for being good fielders.

[RickJay]

Nah, big leaguers can almost all field very well. A good pitcher can win anywhere. I have played softball in leagues with ex major leaguers and near misses. Their skill level is amazing. And this is guys not noted for being good fielders.
Well, of course they're all better than YOU, for God's sake. That doesn't mean they're all the same at the major league level. Anyone can see that Roberto Alomar was a better fielder than Johnny Ray, or that Willie Mays was a better outfielder than Jose Canseco.

Anyone who has hit in the major leagues is a much better hitter than you, but are you saying Rafael Ramirez was just as good a hitter as Babe Ruth? Anyone who has pitched in the majors can outpitch you, but was Todd Stottlemyre pretty mjuch just as good a pitcher as Tom Seaver?

There's a very big difference between teams in fielding ability. The Red Sox were 5% more likely to turn a batted ball into an out than the Devil Rays. That's one out of every twenty balls in play - more than a baserunner per game. That's a huge difference, it's mostly due to fielding skill, and it was probably worth 5-10 games in the standings.

[gonzomax]

No they were not better than I was . No I am not saying there is no difference. You are so into nuance that it appears far bigger than it really is. Your love of quibbling about differences makes then appear to be bigger than they are. I was an outfielder and have been amazed at infielder wrists and reactions. The quality of outfielders does not impress me all that much.
Note the Tigers have been very good team the last couple years with a crappy defensive shortstop. They were trying to find a way to move Guillen out. Yet they were still a very good team. They were an injury away from repeating.

[RickJay]

No they were not better than I was . No I am not saying there is no difference. You are so into nuance that it appears far bigger than it really is. Your love of quibbling about differences makes then appear to be bigger than they are. I was an outfielder and have been amazed at infielder wrists and reactions. The quality of outfielders does not impress me all that much.
You aren't impressed by major league outfielders? Really? Wow, how high up did you play?

Note the Tigers have been very good team the last couple years with a crappy defensive shortstop. They were trying to find a way to move Guillen out. Yet they were still a very good team. They were an injury away from repeating.
Obviously, having one position play poor defense isn't going to mean a whole team sucks; nobody said that. What're you try to argue against here?

Defense does make a difference, though, and teams with very good defence can win a lot more games that teams with average overall defence (or bad defense.) The difference between Carlos Gullen and the average shortstop - Guillen isn't good, but he's not atrocious - is probably no more than one win in the standings, but the difference between a team that has many above average fielders and many that are poor can be substantial. There's a pretty big difference if you take the teams as a whole, often enough to make the difference between making the playoffs and not. It's not as big an issue as hitting or pitching (in the major leagues) but it makes a significant difference, and almost all recent AL pennant winners have had above-average defensive teams, including the 2006 Tigers.

[gonzomax]

Paul Blair and Willie Mays could flag down fly balls. Todays fielders don'tl look like they have spent enough hot summers playing shallow and going deep to get make the tough catches
Al Kaline could play outfield. The players of today play too deep. Fly balls fall in front of them. Few players have the ability to challenge short liners and gap shots .
That may all be about having so many teams. Pitching is watered down. Catchers are hard to find. Almost Eeerybody has a more than competent shortstop though.
Renteria was sought to move Guillen to first. The Detroit papers had talked about it quite a bit.
They liked Casey. He was clutch and good in the clubhouse.
Rick Jay do you have any insight into why Demitri Young was jettisoned a couple years ago?. When they dumped him he was the best hitter on the team for the week or so before he was dropped. Something happened but Detroit Papers never really said what it was.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

Nah, big leaguers can almost all field very well. A good pitcher can win anywhere. I have played softball in leagues with ex major leaguers and near misses. Their skill level is amazing. And this is guys not noted for being good fielders.


Nope. I get to call bullshit on you, dad. There's a reason that David Ortiz is the DH.

[gonzomax]

I am not saying every single ball player is at the same level. But even lower level players can play. Without DH players like Ortiz would still find a spot.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

I am not saying every single ball player is at the same level. But even lower level players can play. Without DH players like Ortiz would still find a spot.


Right, but then that shoots the entire "big leaguers can almost all field very well" argument to hell. Ortiz would find a spot, but then he'd be one of those players that doesn't field well.

You know, one of those ones that doesn't exist.

[RickJay]

Rick Jay do you have any insight into why Demitri Young was jettisoned a couple years ago?. When they dumped him he was the best hitter on the team for the week or so before he was dropped. Something happened but Detroit Papers never really said what it was.
Well, it's public knowledge that he had drug and alcohol problems and was charged with with assaulting his wife, and then didn't show up for a court hearing and was charged with that. The timing, of course, was weird; it was months later, after he'd seemingly tackled his problems. Why not release him in May, right?

So far as I know, nobody has any idea why the Tigers did that. Maybe he had continuing problems that were not released to the press; I suspect we'll never know.

[EsotericEnigma]

Boy this thread died. Way to nitpick on a statement that said that almost all could field very well. As in, not all, but almost. As in, not Ortiz, but nearly all of the others. And I remember Ortiz playing first during the World Series and doing a fine job of it, anyway.

Nope. I get to call bullshit on you, dad. There's a reason that David Ortiz is the DH.

Maybe it's because there's another player who fields the position better than he does? Maybe it's because they can play a better fielder and not lose his bat? Doesn't necessarily mean he's terrible at fielding, just that someone else is better, and there isn't a sacrifice in playing the better fielder.

The Red Sox were 5% more likely to turn a batted ball into an out than the Devil Rays.

Is that because the Red Sox have better pitching? Higher quality of pitchers are less likely to get their pitches rocketed into gaps and over fences. After all, it's "batted" balls into outs, meaning any ball put into the field of play, right? Better pitchers typically don't allow lots of quality contact and we already established the Sox had good pitching. It could also be that they have more sinker ball pitchers (more easy ground outs). Don't know if they do, but again, it's possible. I put absolutely zero importance into this stat or its relevance to fielding quality, and I object to the claim that it's worth 5-10 games in the standings.

[ElvisL1ves]

There's a reason that David Ortiz is the DH.
Those 2 reasons are (1) his low mobility, keeping him from reaching as many batted balls as Youk or almost anybody else, and (2) his bum knees that would break down if he played the field every game.

Ortiz does play 1B in NL-park no-DH games, and adequately, but wouldn't hold up over a whole season.

The overriding reason is the one gonzomaz alluded to, though - it's more important in today's game to have a good bat than a good glove in the lineup. There is no longer a position where lack of offensive production is assumed or even tolerated for long. The DH rule, of course, permits a team to have a bat and a glove in the lineup.

[RickJay]

Is that because the Red Sox have better pitching? Higher quality of pitchers are less likely to get their pitches rocketed into gaps and over fences. After all, it's "batted" balls into outs, meaning any ball put into the field of play, right? Better pitchers typically don't allow lots of quality contact and we already established the Sox had good pitching. It could also be that they have more sinker ball pitchers (more easy ground outs).
Well, for the most part, no.

I know it's hard to believe, but major league pitchers (relative to each other) actually have very LITTLE control over the outcome of a ball hit into play. Generally speaking, the likelihood of a batted ball being a hit or an out is the same, or very close to it, for almost all pitchers, and the exact likelihood is mostly an attribute of how good his fielders are. What pitchers mostly effect are:

1. How many men they strike out (which, by extent, reduces hits)
2. How many men they walk
3. How many home runs they give up, which for this discussion isn't considered a "ball in play."

I know this is kind of hard to swallow and that we've all been raised on the notion that good pitchers "pitch to contact" and such, but it's false. Greg Maddux's career percentage of balls hit into play that become hits - "BABIP" as they call it, Batting Average on Ball In Play - is about .283. Todd Stottlemyre, who nobody will ever mistake for a Hall of Famer, was at .282. Isn't that amazing? It's weird, I know, but it's true.

Just to compare a great pitcher to one who is not so great. I swear to God, I picked these at random:
Pedro Martinez: .269
Josh Towers: .266

Yes, JOSH TOWERS allows a lower batting average on balls in play than Pedro. Pedro is better because he strikes out so many guys and isn't prone to gopher balls. If you want an even more amazing fact, in Pedro's best year, (My figures, btw, may be out a point or two because I'm doing this by hand and I cannot find data in double plays and such; however, those don't differ much between different pitchers, given significant data samples.)

Randy Johnson: .280
Miguel Batista: .289

Small advantage for Johnson there.

Now, I am not saying pitchers have NO control over balls in play.

1. Pitchers do have a slight ability to affect BABIP; if we took a huge chunk of pitchers who were really good and a huge chunk who were mediocre, adjusted for context and added it up, the first group would be a little better.

2. The effect can be more pronounced for extremely unconventional pitchers, such as lefty control artists like Jimmy Key, or knuckleballers.

3. We're talking about major leaguers. This may not be true for lower levels of baseball.

One way or another, MLB pitchers don't affect BABIP very much, and team defense can have a much greater impact on a team's overall BABIP than its pitchers do.

The reason this is useful, by the way, is because just out of sheer luck, a single pitcher's BABIP can vary wildly from year to year. It's not uncommon for a guy who have a .245 BABIP one year and .325 the next. If you see a pitcher who has a high ERA, but his strikeouts, walks and homers allowed were all good, he was just giving up an unusually large number of hits, there's a pretty good chance the pitcher was just unlucky and will improve next year. The reverse is true; if you have a pitcher who didn't strike many men out and isn't good at avoiding walks or homers (or both) but had a good year because his BABIP was low, stay away. He's probably gonna get hammered.

The Devil Rays' (they were still the Devil Rays last year) incredibly low defensive performance was due largely to the incompetence of their fielders. (I hate to introduce subjectivity here, but, I saw them play a dozen times at least, and sheesh, just watch them. They were brutal.) There's just no possible way it could be otherwise; their defensive efficiency is just too awful to be explained away as random chance or park effects, and FAR exceeds the likely range of pitcher skill in affecting this. No other team in the AL was even close, and in the NL the Marlins were the only team nearly as bad and they still weren't as bad as Tampa Bay.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

Note that sinkerball pitchers also have good years when the defense behind them is above average. Brandon Webb had a great season in part because of the defense.

[Hawkeyeop]

Note that sinkerball pitchers also have good years when the defense behind them is above average. Brandon Webb had a great season in part because of the defense.

Well that is because there is a fourth aspect pitchers have some control over besides HR rate, K rate, and BB rate. Ground ball to fly ball ratio. The correlation isn't quite as strong as the other three, but it does have an affect. Ground ball pitchers will likely give up more hits, but fewer hits of extra bases. I would emphasize that Webb had a great season in part because of great infield defense. More specifically having the best defensive 2b in the game behind him. The defensive strengths lined up well with his virtues as pitcher.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

Well that is because there is a fourth aspect pitchers have some control over besides HR rate, K rate, and BB rate. Ground ball to fly ball ratio. The correlation isn't quite as strong as the other three, but it does have an affect. Ground ball pitchers will likely give up more hits, but fewer hits of extra bases. I would emphasize that Webb had a great season in part because of great infield defense. More specifically having the best defensive 2b in the game behind him. The defensive strengths lined up well with his virtues as pitcher.


Exactly the point I wished to make, but apparently floundered at. Thanks, kind sir.

[Southern Yankee]

So an article is out today saying the Yankees are going to start the season with Joba Chamberlain as a setup man for Rivera, and then send him down to the minors around mid-season to get his arm ready to be in the rotation in the second half. I'm not sure I like this idea, or get it. If they want him to start, get him ready in Spring training. Do they think he's going to be some savior in the 2nd half? Which of the projected starters (Pettitte, Wang, Mussina, Hughes and Kennedy) are they pre-supposing he'll replace? I think they're being too delicate with him. I know he's young, but I think they should be grooming him to replace Mo. Rivera doesn't have many seasons left and who's been more important to their success in the last 12 years?

[RickJay]

So an article is out today saying the Yankees are going to start the season with Joba Chamberlain as a setup man for Rivera, and then send him down to the minors around mid-season to get his arm ready to be in the rotation in the second half.
That is frankly the dumbest idea in the history of the world. They aren't that stupid. Your analysis is spot on: it makes no sense.

Rivera doesn't have many seasons left and who's been more important to their success in the last 12 years?
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Rivera is not human. He is obviously a cyborg. He will pitch until his plutonium power supply runs out, which is estimated to happen in about 2193.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

That is frankly the dumbest idea in the history of the world. They aren't that stupid. Your analysis is spot on: it makes no sense.


I've said it before and I'll say it again: Rivera is not human. He is obviously a cyborg. He will pitch until his plutonium power supply runs out, which is estimated to happen in about 2193.


He keeps pitching with that cut fastball and has amazing year after amazing year...and then he tops that year a little bit. He's simply incredible.

[Southern Yankee]

What's always amazed me about watching Rivera pitch is the ease of his delivery. It looks almost casual, but he has such good control, and the ball seems poured in to the catcher's mitt.

[Asimovian]

*squeal*

So lovely to see pictures of the Dodgers working out today. A quick look at the schedule tells me that we're exactly two weeks away from the first competitive spring training game, and just one day later (again with the *squeal*), the first televised game!

The offseason is entirely too long. I've got tickets to the Dodgers/Red Sox game at the Coliseum (92,000 people attending a baseball game -- it's going to be something else!), and the idea that it's still a month and a half away is enough to give me hives.

Not that I'm craving baseball at all.

*sits in the corner and rocks slowly*

[What Exit?]

Yankee Spring Training is apparently going to be 24x7 Clemens & Pettitte.

This is not good. Fuck Clemens, fuck Pettitte and fuck the worthless Senate that has nothing better to do.

[silenus]

Torre says Jason Schmidt won't be ready by Opening Day (http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080214&content_id=2373223&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=la). What a surprise. C'mon, Dodgers. Dump the chump and concentrate on pitchers that actually have an arm. Schmidt is a goner, and everybody knows it.

Ah, Spring! Hope is in the air.

[gonzomax]

Spring training brings April Showers ,sun,warmth and golf. Football is the harbinger of winter. Snow,cold ,cloudy and slushy.

[RickJay]

Yankee Spring Training is apparently going to be 24x7 Clemens & Pettitte.
That may benefit them. If the media's yukking it up about two roided-up pitchers they won't be spending any time bothering Girardi and his other players. Not that I think it bothers the players much anyway.

[What Exit?]

That may benefit them. If the media's yukking it up about two roided-up pitchers they won't be spending any time bothering Girardi and his other players. Not that I think it bothers the players much anyway.
I hope you are right, but I am being selfish. I usually rejoice in Pitchers and Catchers reporting and this story is so overwhelming that even The Daily Show and The Colbert Report spent a lot of time on it.

[Hawkeyeop]

That is frankly the dumbest idea in the history of the world. They aren't that stupid. Your analysis is spot on: it makes no sense.


Worked pretty well for the Dodgers last year with Billingsley. You want Joba to pitch around 140 innings. Making him a setup man means he would only throw about half that. Starting him all year means you have to shut him down early or increase his injury risk. Seems like a good compromise.

[RickJay]

Worked pretty well for the Dodgers last year with Billingsley. You want Joba to pitch around 140 innings. Making him a setup man means he would only throw about half that. Starting him all year means you have to shut him down early or increase his injury risk. Seems like a good compromise.
If Chamberlain's arm is so fragile that he has to be shut down early in the season just because he wasn't used as a middle reliever, he is not cut out to be a major league starting pitcher.

Pitcher injuries are generally not correlated with pitching too many games, or even too many innings; they correlate with throwing too many pitches when your arm is tired. Chamberlain's arm will be as fine as his natural endurance and mechanics can possibly allow him to be if they're simply careful with his pitch counts.

[Hawkeyeop]

Pitching injuries, particularly with pitchers Joba's age, are generally correlated with pitching. Pitching tired is obviously worse. That is precisely why you limit his innings. He threw about 115 innings last year. Do you really think he can throw 200 without getting tired in September? There have been studies that say upping a young pitcher's inning count more then 30 innings is very dangerous. The Yankees aren't to blow Joba's arm out just to see how tough he is.

[Crawlspace]

Pitcher injuries are generally not correlated with pitching too many games, or even too many innings; they correlate with throwing too many pitches when your arm is tired. Chamberlain's arm will be as fine as his natural endurance and mechanics can possibly allow him to be if they're simply careful with his pitch counts.I'm wondering how this relates to my thoughts on how the Yankee's should handle the pitching staff: they should use a six man rotation. From casual observation, Mussina clearly demonstrated that he can be very effective with a little more rest; Pettite isn't getting any younger; and if they're that worried about over extending the young three, the extra day off could do them wonders in rehabbing from the previous start. The only one for whom this doesn't work so well for is Wang, who, if memory serves, does better on short rest.

I say this because the Yankee's seem to be front loaded with starting pitching and it would seem to be to their advantage to have their starters rested enough to go deeper into the game and minimize middle relief.

[ElvisL1ves]

Is there anywhere else you can get live TV coverage of the first day of pitchers' workouts, or is it just in Boston? Yes, I'm serious, it's on here.

Hey, there's Beckett jogging around the warning track! Let's go back and watch that in slo-mo replay!

[Asimovian]

Is there anywhere else you can get live TV coverage of the first day of pitchers' workouts, or is it just in Boston? Yes, I'm serious, it's on here.

Hey, there's Beckett jogging around the warning track! Let's go back and watch that in slo-mo replay!I'm not kidding when I say I envy you.

[ElvisL1ves]

All we can do is watch people in skimpy clothes out enjoying the sun, on TV.

Somebody in SoCal envies that?

[Least Original User Name Ever]

All we can do is watch people in skimpy clothes out enjoying the sun, on TV.

Somebody in SoCal envies that?


Yeah, I go outside and my genitals retreat inside my body like a frightened turtle. In SoCal, there are beaches.

You can golf now. We can't. You envy us?!?!?! Sir, you are wrong.

[Asimovian]

Yeah, I go outside and my genitals retreat inside my body like a frightened turtle. In SoCal, there are beaches.

You can golf now. We can't. You envy us?!?!?! Sir, you are wrong.I didn't say I envy *everything* about you -- just your ability to watch some form of baseball *live* right now.

Next year, when the Dodgers move to their Arizona training facility, I'll be road-tripping this time of year. Yeehaw!

[Least Original User Name Ever]

I didn't say I envy *everything* about you -- just your ability to watch some form of baseball *live* right now.

Next year, when the Dodgers move to their Arizona training facility, I'll be road-tripping this time of year. Yeehaw!



We want us some baseball right now too, but if the choice is between snow up to your asshole and the beach, I'll take the beach, even though I get less baseball coverage.

[Asimovian]

We want us some baseball right now too, but if the choice is between snow up to your asshole and the beach, I'll take the beach, even though I get less baseball coverage.That's just because you don't know any better. You'd be amazed at how dull and boring having beautiful skies, warm temperatures, surf, sand, desert and mountain play all in one place can get. :D