Mafia: The Mob is Recruiting [Game Finished]

[Pleonast]

Omitting an important detail when formulating a hypothesis is not something one expects at this level of analysis.True, but we're not looking for people who make mistakes, we're looking for scum. Something that more players need to keep in mind.

[sinjin]

True, but we're not looking for people who make mistakes, we're looking for scum. Something that more players need to keep in mind.

I did not look at it like a mistake but rather as a deliberate omission until MB replied. A deliberate omission would be scummy.

[sinjin]

EBWOP: That MB is supposed to refer to BlasterMaster. I'm not dyslexic (not that there's anything wrong with that) I just always trip to MadMax: Beyond the Thunderdome when I see his name. :smack:

[Pleonast]

I did not look at it like a mistake but rather as a deliberate omission until MB replied. A deliberate omission would be scummy.Even a deliberate omission is not scummy, unless there's a reason why a Scum is more likely to make the omission than a Townie. My point is that you jumped on Blaster for his omission without explaining why it was scummy.

You said it was suspicious without explaining why. My first instinct at the omission after you pointed it was that it's a Townie slip (because lack of knowledge of Scum roles is reasonable for Townies). You may have good reason to think its scummy, but you need to let the rest of know the details. Just trying to improve the our collective game.

(I must be dyslexic, because I didn't notice the reversal until you pointed it out.)

[Millit the Frail]

I know it's Friday night, but I think I hear crickets in here. No one's got anything to say?

[Idle Thoughts]

Now that I'm no longer in the lead, I'll

Idle and Capn: I don't think it's impossible that the Boss may have killed, but I find it to be an unlikely scenario. If we assign an equal, or nearly equal probability to each of these, we gain zero information or very little information. Let's examine the Information of the situation: I(X) = 1 - Σ(i = 1, n, H(xi)) where H(xi) = -p(xi)log2p(xi). You will note that I([0.5, 0.5]) = 0 and I([1, 0]) = 1; thus, if we assign an equal probability to each scenario, we get no information, and if we can eliminate the alternatives we get perfect information. However, if we assign probabilities that don't heavily distinguish, say [0.667, 0.333], we get 0.08, or still very little information. However, since I think it's much more likely, say 90-95%, then we actually get some usable information (0.53, 0.71 respectively). The math may be a bit of overkill, but the underlying point is that by not using the reasoning available to estimate what is going on, we leave ourselves with very little information.

I was unable to understand you after "If we assign" just to let you know. : p


Blaster the math you just presented does nothing to clarify but rather further obscures the issues before us. If you can't bring it down to a level that is understandable don't bother, it's just a distraction. Also, you seem to be assuming that the Boss had a 100% chance to successfully recruit last night. You know this is not true.

FOS BlasterMaster

He's done this before though and he was Town, so really, to me, at least, it means nothing in regards to his alignment. Could go either way.


Unvote Pleonast

I don't want to lynch a claimed power unless there's no alternative (or lynching me is the alternative, so expect me to switch back if it's in my own interest). On reflection, I'm not sure siccing the Vigilante on him would be the right call or not. I don't trust Pleonast and I don't trust the Vigilante to choose well without the chance of the victim mounting a defense or a role claim. So to me, losing the Vig is no big deal. But I suppose the "unrecruitable" factor makes it a more important role in this variant...

Anyway, that's the Vigilante's call. Not necessarily mine.

All right, that's it.

You've consistantly stayed on this almost from the beginning. Sure the pronoun thing was odd, but you really seem to be gung-ho in getting Pleonast killed off. You don't want to lynch a claimed power role? Yet you'd be fine with them being killed off? (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9528143&postcount=471) You keep pressing the Vig to kill him off, saying you think it's for the best and think it's a good idea, yet you put it subtly "Well, it's [their] decision, not mine". You've even gone so far to say, even in this post that a power role would be "an alternative to lynching you" but how is anyone supposed to know that? For all Town knows, YOU could be the Boss or a recruit by now. All of those things really get to me and they rub me the wrong way.


Regarding the math thing, which we also got hung up on in M7: Firefly: My father used to have a saying I thought was wise. "Everything in life is 50/50. Either it happened or it didn't." Obviously there's no way to tell or know right now so why can't people just wait on it?



VOTE MENOCCHIO

[Idle Thoughts]

Arrggh. That's what I get for posting too early in the morning.

Fluiddruid, could you maybe fix my tags in the above post that looks like someone took an ax to it?

[Boozahol Squid, P.I.]

f(r) = (D + V + P + .5M + (1- p(C)B)) / (n - s)


So I'm one of the folks who understand your math, Blam, but I can see how you're going overboard here with some of this stuff. Plus, the above equation is wrong: it would count a Bishop as one of the unrecruitables even after he's dead. We don't even need a variable for the doc, vig or bishop: none of them are dead, and we know there's 1 of each from the game start.

It's (2+P+.5M+p(C)B)/n-s

[Menocchio]

I think Pleonast is lying. Coming out that early with that narrow a lead in the vote was a foolish move for town. Especially a priest (the most convenient role for a scum to assume by far since he can't be contradicted by a real priest and would be considered unrecruitable), who's primary importance is that he could baffle attempts to recruit him. Now, if Pleo is telling the truth, they know to recruit elsewhere. Pleo said he wanted to stop the town from talking about us all Day? Yeah, that worked well for him. I think he's smarter than that.

But, I could be wrong. A night kill would at least give Pleo a chance to throw out his prayer and I'm still not convinced the vigilante is anything but a liability for the Town.

[fluiddruid]

Arrggh. That's what I get for posting too early in the morning.

Fluiddruid, could you maybe fix my tags in the above post that looks like someone took an ax to it?I've fixed the vote, but, I'm not sure how the rest should be changed since there are some incomplete quotes, and that sort of thing. Perhaps it would be best if you reposted as I don't want to make any wrong assumptions, and the way I tried to fix it ended up with some weird unattributed quotes.

[fluiddruid]

Sorry for missing some votes toDay... I'm not an accountant by nature. :) I believe the below should be wholly correct as I've reviewed the entire Day (and in the original order).

Vote tallies:

Pleonast (6) - Hockey Monkey, (Menocchio), Freudian Slit, bufftabby, (Diomedes), Millit the Frail, OneCentStamp, Darth Sensitive
Menocchio (5) - Diomedes*, dotchan, CapnPitt, Pleonast, Idle Thoughts
HazelNutCoffee (2) - Blaster Master, chrisk
Freudian Slit (1) - Hawkeyeop
bufftabby (0) - (Idle Thoughts)

Has yet to cast a vote on Day 2:
NAF1138
MHaye
Santo Rugger
Koldanar
HazelNutCoffee
Hotflungwok
sinjin
Hal Briston

No current vote but has voted:
Menocchio

[CapnPitt]

Wow, this game is pretty frustrating (I assume it's worse if you're on the block). I'm convinced that either Pleo or Mennochio is scum. But not both. So I'm in a position where I'm forced to accuse two people of being scum, one of whom I'm nearly positive isn't. But I'm 60/40 in my mind. So far I'm sticking with Mennochio for being too bloodthirsty, but that role claim from Pleo was just bizarre. I might change my vote yet, but man this sucks already.

[Boozahol Squid, P.I.]

Wow, this game is pretty frustrating (I assume it's worse if you're on the block). I'm convinced that either Pleo or Mennochio is scum. But not both. So I'm in a position where I'm forced to accuse two people of being scum, one of whom I'm nearly positive isn't. But I'm 60/40 in my mind. So far I'm sticking with Mennochio for being too bloodthirsty, but that role claim from Pleo was just bizarre. I might change my vote yet, but man this sucks already.

You are? That's rather silly of you. It's extraordinarily likely that they're both town. What makes you think one of the two of them is scum?

[NAF1138]

Wow, this game is pretty frustrating (I assume it's worse if you're on the block). I'm convinced that either Pleo or Mennochio is scum. But not both. So I'm in a position where I'm forced to accuse two people of being scum, one of whom I'm nearly positive isn't. But I'm 60/40 in my mind. So far I'm sticking with Mennochio for being too bloodthirsty, but that role claim from Pleo was just bizarre. I might change my vote yet, but man this sucks already.


And that, ladies and gents, is a classic scum tell.

vote CapnPitt

[CapnPitt]

You are? That's rather silly of you. It's extraordinarily likely that they're both town. What makes you think one of the two of them is scum?

Dio I gave my reasons "I'm sticking with Mennochio for being too bloodthirsty, but that role claim from Pleo was just bizarre."

And NAF, "classic," really? If you want to think so, that's fine, but you're way off.

[CapnPitt]

Actually, let me go a step further, for my own edification. What part of what I said is a "classic scum tell?"

[Boozahol Squid, P.I.]

Actually, let me go a step further, for my own edification. What part of what I said is a "classic scum tell?"


I'm actually leaning towards going in with NAF. When I've played scum, I find itdifficult to post as wildly and freely as I do when I play as town (there's a lot more at stake when you're scum). But you don't want to look like a lurker, either. So you toss out posts that don't say much, that recap prior posts, and cast aspersions on other players without drawing attention to yourself from the aspersed.

[Menocchio]

Actually, let me go a step further, for my own edification. What part of what I said is a "classic scum tell?"
Insisting that one or the other of us are scum. Both of us could just be townies who have made strategic errors (at least in selling ourselves to you as town). To suggest otherwise is a fallacy at best, and an attempt to kill two town (if I was lynched and revealed as town, would you then turn on Pleo Tomorrow?) at worse.

I'm leaning towards "fallacy" for the moment, but the point is valid.

[CapnPitt]

By and large isn't any vote at this point likely to be a fallacy at this point? All I was doing was pointing out my thought process (fallacious though it may be). I thought that's what we wanted.

I'm saying that I thought it was Mennochio beforehand because of the pounce on Pleo for what was apparently minor. Then came the big early role claim and that seems like desperation. So I think Mennochio is scum for the early pounce. I didn't actually suspect Pleo at all until the role claim. It pinged my scumdar pretty strongly. Though at this point I tend to think it was just a desperation move to get his/her head off of the chopping block after being falsely accused. Therefore, as I said, I lean toward Menno my initial suspect as being scum. I'll let somebody else do the math, but that's what it seems like to me. As far as "turning" goes, there'll be a whole load of new information come tomorrow, so I'd wait for the new evidence before I'd make any Day 3 decisions. I'll not say that I wouldn't still be suspicious of Pleo but there a bunch of things that could happen in the meantime.

And as far as aspersions go, we have to asperse somebody don't we?

And NAF I'd like you to consider for a moment that perhaps, just perhaps, there's the tiniest chance that I was sitting here bored, not wanting to go out into the cold, so I decided just to make a post. If being bored sometimes on a Saturday means that I'm scum, well then I'm guilty as charged. However, I'll just say it again that you're way off base.

[hotflungwok]

I kind of have to agree with CapnPitt. This is pretty confusing. Having not played this before, I'm just not seeing the scumtells people are trying to point out. I can kind of see how being bloodthirsty can be one, but isn't that kind of an obvious one? An easy one to avoid? I don't see the pronoun thing as a big deal, but it could be something. The early role declaration is a bit suspicious, especially given the role, but we'll have to see.

I just don't have enough of a reason to lynch a player at this point.

[NAF1138]

Actually, let me go a step further, for my own edification. What part of what I said is a "classic scum tell?"

In addition to what Mennochio said, you also are distancing yourself from your vote.

I am not going to be around for much of the rest of the weekend, but I will try to post at least once tomorrow. And more Monday.

[Millit the Frail]

I kind of have to agree with CapnPitt. This is pretty confusing. Having not played this before, I'm just not seeing the scumtells people are trying to point out. I can kind of see how being bloodthirsty can be one, but isn't that kind of an obvious one? An easy one to avoid? I don't see the pronoun thing as a big deal, but it could be something. The early role declaration is a bit suspicious, especially given the role, but we'll have to see.

I just don't have enough of a reason to lynch a player at this point.

I'm leaning toward "newbie mistake." I've been guilty of that in the past. When you see two players, each trying to argue that that the other is the scum, it seems like one of them MUST have some sort of vital info. In reality, it's likely that they're both just townies on the defensive. Especially since there are only two scum in this game, at most.

Another scenario to consider, for when there are more scum--scum in-fighting is a good way to throw the townies off the scent and keep one scum hidden. If A and B are fighting, and we lynch A and A comes up scum, it doesn't necessarily mean that B isn't scum.

In short, I don't know that person-to-person scuffles are any good at helping us determine overall allegiance. A scuffle does not necessarily mean the two players are working for opposite sides.

I can see the scum trying to perpetuate a black-and-white "one is scum, one is not" theory, because it gets rid of two townies in two lynches. However, it's a pretty bold move to come out and say it. I'll give the Captain the benefit of the doubt for now but I'll remember this for later.

In other observations, I see that Menocchio thinks that the Vig might be a liability. This strikes me as pro-town because I don't think there's any way a scum would come out and basically tell the town that they might want to dispose of the Vig. No, it seems to suggest to me that the scum DID make the kill, hoping to turn the town against the Vig in exactly this way. I say we don't bite. The Vig *might* have made the kill, but I'm seriously doubting it now.

[hotflungwok]

In other observations, I see that Menocchio thinks that the Vig might be a liability. This strikes me as pro-town because I don't think there's any way a scum would come out and basically tell the town that they might want to dispose of the Vig. No, it seems to suggest to me that the scum DID make the kill, hoping to turn the town against the Vig in exactly this way. I say we don't bite. The Vig *might* have made the kill, but I'm seriously doubting it now.
Well, I can see where this idea would come from. The Vigilante is a loose cannon. It's like a person who gets to kill in 1 vote instead of 24. They could be pursuing their own agenda, fulfilling old vendettas, or just throwing darts at a board with all of our names written on them. But I think they're good because it gives a way for someone to act outside majority tyranny. They might have info we don't, and might not be able to convince others about it. And they keep the game moving and give us something to bicker about.

[Menocchio]

Well, I can see where this idea would come from. The Vigilante is a loose cannon. It's like a person who gets to kill in 1 vote instead of 24. They could be pursuing their own agenda, fulfilling old vendettas, or just throwing darts at a board with all of our names written on them. But I think they're good because it gives a way for someone to act outside majority tyranny. They might have info we don't, and might not be able to convince others about it. And they keep the game moving and give us something to bicker about.
The problem with the vigilante is that there's no real discussion about who to kill. No explaining one's actions. No chance for a role-claim. No input from other players. They're firing blind and while false kills are part of the game, the Vig is operating with less information than the town as a whole has.

The advantage the vigilante has is that the scum don't get to vote either. Yeah, he's firing blind, but at least we know he's pro-town.

[Millit the Frail]

Well, I can see where this idea would come from. The Vigilante is a loose cannon. It's like a person who gets to kill in 1 vote instead of 24. They could be pursuing their own agenda, fulfilling old vendettas, or just throwing darts at a board with all of our names written on them. But I think they're good because it gives a way for someone to act outside majority tyranny. They might have info we don't, and might not be able to convince others about it. And they keep the game moving and give us something to bicker about.

And he/she keeps us on our toes. If we hang "the wrong person," then the Vig can try to fix our mistake. Then again, this can backfire, as I said before. If the Vig assumes a dichotomy (either A or B is scum), and this is not the case, the scum are laughing all the way home. I'm not sure if it's a good thing or a bad to have someone keeping us from arguing too ferociously for a specific person's lynching--which is what I think will happen. However, the Vigilante is a tool in the town's toolbox. Loose cannon or not, we could theoretically end the game TONIGHT because of the Vigilante. (That is, if there was a recruitment last night but no recruitment tonight, or if there was no prior recruitment and the Vig kills the recruit tonight.)

[CapnPitt]

I'm leaning toward "newbie mistake." I've been guilty of that in the past. When you see two players, each trying to argue that that the other is the scum, it seems like one of them MUST have some sort of vital info. In reality, it's likely that they're both just townies on the defensive. Especially since there are only two scum in this game, at most.

Another scenario to consider, for when there are more scum--scum in-fighting is a good way to throw the townies off the scent and keep one scum hidden. If A and B are fighting, and we lynch A and A comes up scum, it doesn't necessarily mean that B isn't scum.

In short, I don't know that person-to-person scuffles are any good at helping us determine overall allegiance. A scuffle does not necessarily mean the two players are working for opposite sides.

I can see the scum trying to perpetuate a black-and-white "one is scum, one is not" theory, because it gets rid of two townies in two lynches. However, it's a pretty bold move to come out and say it. I'll give the Captain the benefit of the doubt for now but I'll remember this for later.

In other observations, I see that Menocchio thinks that the Vig might be a liability. This strikes me as pro-town because I don't think there's any way a scum would come out and basically tell the town that they might want to dispose of the Vig. No, it seems to suggest to me that the scum DID make the kill, hoping to turn the town against the Vig in exactly this way. I say we don't bite. The Vig *might* have made the kill, but I'm seriously doubting it now.

Thank you for this post. Now I see where NAF is coming from. The whole MUST thing is what I apparently got caught up in.

[Pleonast]

I think Pleonast is lying. Coming out that early with that narrow a lead in the vote was a foolish move for town. Especially a priest (the most convenient role for a scum to assume by far since he can't be contradicted by a real priest and would be considered unrecruitable), who's primary importance is that he could baffle attempts to recruit him. Now, if Pleo is telling the truth, they know to recruit elsewhere. Pleo said he wanted to stop the town from talking about us all Day? Yeah, that worked well for him. I think he's smarter than that.

But, I could be wrong. A night kill would at least give Pleo a chance to throw out his prayer and I'm still not convinced the vigilante is anything but a liability for the Town.1) "Pleo said he wanted to stop the town from talking about us all Day"--nice attempt to distort what I said. I wanted to end discussion about me. I recapped my defense and said that's all I got. Either convict me on that or not, and then move on. It's a waste of the Town's time for us to rehash until the Day's end. Better to focus on others. And I think it has worked for the most part. Even if I'm lynched, people have been discussing others. That is important!

2) "Coming out that early with that narrow a lead in the vote was a foolish move for town."--so what if it was foolish? Do you plan on lynching every Townie who does something foolish? That's a great tactic for scum to keep the focus off themselves.

3) "Especially a priest, who's primary importance is that he could baffle attempts to recruit him."--The Boss would be foolish to recruit anyone near the hotseat. Once the attention was on me, it's unlikely they'd attempt to recruit me.

[Menocchio]

Yeah. This is enough for me.
Vote Pleonast. (Again)

1) "Pleo said he wanted to stop the town from talking about us all Day"--nice attempt to distort what I said. I wanted to end discussion about me. My mistake. That's what I meant to type. And it hasn't worked. At all. We were already discussing others, and could have moved on to other people entirely if you didn't give us something you had to know we'd discuss the rest of the Day. Even supposed sign is either on you or on a reaction to you (I'm too bloodthirsty, others are too wishy-washy, that sort of thing). I have to believe you knew that.

2) "Coming out that early with that narrow a lead in the vote was a foolish move for town."--so what if it was foolish? Do you plan on lynching every Townie who does something foolish? That's a great tactic for scum to keep the focus off themselves. Take it as a compliment. I think a scum using your tactics is smarter than a townie would be.

3) "Especially a priest, who's primary importance is that he could baffle attempts to recruit him."--The Boss would be foolish to recruit anyone near the hotseat. Once the attention was on me, it's unlikely they'd attempt to recruit me. Maybe not Tonight, but on following Nights once attention around you had died down and other suspects popped up? Yeah, I could see the Boss wasting a move trying to recruit you. But you'd have considered that before coming out. If you were really a priest.

[Hawkeyeop]

Well it looks like we are just going around in circles, but I think that is to be expected.


BlasterMaster ,
I quoted your earlier response, since I thought you were being inconsistent, and it was how I would of responded to the latter post. I don't think the scum would do anything that would put themselves in the spotlight this early in the game. Certainly we do have to consider every possibility, but I just didn't see it as being very likely.

Pleo,

I think it is a little unrealistic to say stop talking about me, not give anything else to talk about, and expect the town to move on. Regardless of whether or not you are scum we can learn things from how people react to apparent scum. Just ask Capnpitt

As for whether or not I believe you, I don't, but that doesn't mean I wish to lynch you. First off, I don't believe you are the godfather, and that is where I think our focus should be. Secondly your position is verifiable. I suggest the detective check is out tonight and the cops pick other targets, since the detective should be able to get the most accurate read. The detective can attempt to leave a clue as to the verdict tomorrow.

As for today, I'm happy with my vote, and given the lack of need of majority, I don't plan on changing it, unless new evidence pops up.

[chrisk]

I'm starting to lean towards Pleo being an innocent priest, a little upset that no matter what he says it seems to call more suspicion towards him. Been there myself. (Except I wasn't a priest.)

And I think that I'm also starting to get a FOS of my own for CapnPitt, though I'm not going to switch my vote at this point. Being a bit weasely and sticking to your dichotomy guns may not be a certain scum tell, but it doesn't seem to be very good for us as the town. (Of course, I'm not sure that my own style of play is any better, we're all just trying to find mafia as best we can etcetera.)

[Pleonast]

I think it is a little unrealistic to say stop talking about me, not give anything else to talk about, and expect the town to move on.I didn't ask to town to only stop talking about me. I asked them to make a decision based on my final defense and then move on. Important difference. Although I'd prefer staying alive, I'm a priest--not that critical a power a role. That's why I wanted the town to vote and then move.

And I've pointed out what I think is a scum tell from Menocchio: being against those who came out early for No Lynch on Day 1 (me) and against those who were strongly for A Lynch. Playing the extremes while staying safely in the middle is a primo scum technique.

Also, I complained about sinjin's poor explanation. That wasn't a scumtell as much as poor play, in my opinion. Finding errors in arguments isn't enough to find scum, you have to make a case for why any given problem is more likely to be from scum.

Hmm, along that line of thought, does anyone who's said my early claim is suspicious want to say why an early claim is suspicious? Or mine in particular?

[bufftabby]

Hmm, along that line of thought, does anyone who's said my early claim is suspicious want to say why an early claim is suspicious? Or mine in particular?

Sure. It seemed opportunistic and premature. While I don't think a last-minute role-claim would've been preferable, I would think town would've tried some other techniques first, like defending oneself more as well as arguing against someone else more. Your current discussion of Menocchio seems to embrace the scum dichotomy theory that CapnPitt seems so fond of. I realize there's a bit more to your argument against him than "I'm not scum so he must be"! But I still get a whiff of that sort of argument out of it.

[fluiddruid]

The Day ends in less than 48 real-time hours.

Vote tallies:

Pleonast (7) - Hockey Monkey, Menocchio*, Freudian Slit, bufftabby, (Diomedes), Millit the Frail, OneCentStamp, Darth Sensitive
Menocchio (5) - Diomedes*, dotchan, CapnPitt, Pleonast, Idle Thoughts
HazelNutCoffee (2) - Blaster Master, chrisk
Freudian Slit (1) - Hawkeyeop
CapnPitt (1) - NAF1138
bufftabby (0) - (Idle Thoughts)

Has yet to cast a vote on Day 2:
MHaye
Santo Rugger
Koldanar
HazelNutCoffee
Hotflungwok
sinjin
Hal Briston

[Menocchio]

Hmm, along that line of thought, does anyone who's said my early claim is suspicious want to say why an early claim is suspicious? Or mine in particular?
Because a premature claim is very poor strategy for town and better strategy for scum. This is particularly true for a priest, who can't be confirmed or contradicted by the other (real) priests.

[Koldanar]

I'm horribly sorry guys, but something has come up for class, and I have two rather large items due for tomorrow night. I won't have time to look or vote until 10 pm tomorrow or so :(

[Millit the Frail]

The Day ends in less than 48 real-time hours.


Mod question: What is our schedule, now? I thought we were going back to ending the days on Wednesdays and ending the nights on Fridays. I think I missed something somewhere....

[Pleonast]

Sure. It seemed opportunistic and premature. While I don't think a last-minute role-claim would've been preferable, I would think town would've tried some other techniques first, like defending oneself more as well as arguing against someone else more. Your current discussion of Menocchio seems to embrace the scum dichotomy theory that CapnPitt seems so fond of. I realize there's a bit more to your argument against him than "I'm not scum so he must be"! But I still get a whiff of that sort of argument out of it.1) I have nothing else to add to my defense. There was no point dragging it out. 2) I'm not sure why you think there's an either-or argument coming from me. Saying you have a "whiff" seems rather vague.Because a premature claim is very poor strategy for town and better strategy for scum. This is particularly true for a priest, who can't be confirmed or contradicted by the other (real) priests.Can you be more specific about why it's bad strategy for town? I don't see it.

And it's not like I had a choice about what to claim.

[Menocchio]

Can you be more specific about why it's bad strategy for town? I don't see it.

And it's not like I had a choice about what to claim.
In general, power roles shouldn't claim this early in the game unless their lynching seems otherwise inevitable (and yours wasn't when you claimed), if only to not be on the scum's hit list. This is true for everyone, but especially for the priest.

The priest brings two advantages to the town. The first is the prayer ability, but that's one shot only and hard to use effectively without knowing the minds of the scum, other priests/bishop and doctor. More important is the fact that they can't be recruited. And this is why they must remain hidden. Hidden, there's a chance that the scum could try to recruit a priest and fail, wasting their action for the night. Open, they know to try other targets, or to kill when they feel a recruit is too risky. And as you see right now, there's no way for the town to trust a claimed priest alive, short of the detective (or beat cop) investigating the claimant and then coming out himself to tell the result.

I think you're scum because I think you would see that all yourself, and because the priest is the perfect role for a scum to claim. Unverifiable without outing the investigators, and if the town actually believed you, they'd believe you until the end of the game, unlike the recruitable power roles.

[MHaye]

I've been focussing elsewhere for a while, but the weekend (and a cancelled D&D game :( ) has given me the opportunity to play catchup on nearly five pages of posts.

Put me in the camp of those who think the Boss tried a recruit last night. I understand that the failure chance of a recruitment is much higher than that of a kill. To offset that, the payoff of success is very much greater. Not only is there now some insurance that a low-chance event won't wipe the Mafia side out, but also the gain from a single recruitment is equivalent to two kills.

Also, if the Vig kills and the recruitment fails the Boss is no worse off than if he kills and the Vig does not, plus if there are two kills the town knows what the Boss did last night, whereas if he tries a recruit and the Vig lies low, the town knows nothing. Not only don't we know whether the recruitment was successful or not, we can't even be certain the Boss tried for a recruit.

Mennochio's arguments around the vote for Pleonast smelled to me.

Mennochio (post 471) said : Well, I'm still stumped. I'm ambivalent about HazelNutCoffee at the moment. Blaster Master makes some good points, but the pronoun thing was lame enough to provoke her reaction (I stuck with it because it seemed like the best thing going at the time).

I'm letting my vote sit on Pleo right now, but I'd rather not lynch a claimed Priest. If I had my way, the Vigilante would put him to the test tonight (the Vigilante and the Doctor both hold veto power over this plan, of course). I still think the Vig is a mixed blessing for the town, so trading him for a Priest would be a fair trade, and it would give Pleo a chance to throw his prayer out into the town in a Hail Mary pass to fluster the scum.

I'd really rather not get lynched myself though, so better Pleo than me. :)I thought around this issue in a game last year when I, a vanilla Townie, was up for lynch against two others with no claim on any part. I decided then that if one of the other parties makes a reasonable claim, I would stand aside – that or try and disprove the claim. I'd still feel free to argue to lynch the other player if we said we were both vanilla – after all, I cannot be sure about the other player.

That self-sacrifice is all very well for a confirmed role, or one that can be tested; but what about this case? Well, a priest may be a weak power, but the value of being immune in their own person to recruitment, the scum's more powerful weapon, should not be underestimated. So saying “I'd rather him than me, even though I believe he has a power” is not really acting in the town's best interests.

The other thing I want to chime in on is the Vig-as-loose-cannon issue. A vig who must kill is a loose cannon, but our Vig does not have to kill. That makes the role better. I'm not one who favours trying to order power roles. They will do what they will do. I don't have any executive oversight of the messages they send the GO so any attempt I may make to order the power roles is an exercise in futility. (Unless I am one of course ;).)

However, I found this statement in post 524 wildly inaccurate.The problem with the vigilante is that there's no real discussion about who to kill. No explaining one's actions. No chance for a role-claim. No input from other players. They're firing blind and while false kills are part of the game, the Vig is operating with less information than the town as a whole has.(Bolding mine).

The Vig has more information. The town has what it can read in the thread. He has that plus knowledge of his actions.

That's two things Mennochio has done that set my teeth on edge. I'm right on the verge of voting for him. I'll think about it for a while and come back tomorrow to see what's happened.

[chrisk]

The Vig has more information. The town has what it can read in the thread. He has that plus knowledge of his actions.


That depends on how you interpret it. If you mean, 'the town, working together openly,' then it may not have any extra info. If you mean 'the town, as the sum of all of its parts' then obviously there are other pro-town power roles who have secret night info that the vig doesn't automatically get. Of course, how to get that info into play during the daytime lynch voting without exposing said power roles to danger is one of the central dilemmas of mafia, I guess.

[Menocchio]

That depends on how you interpret it. If you mean, 'the town, working together openly,' then it may not have any extra info. If you mean 'the town, as the sum of all of its parts' then obviously there are other pro-town power roles who have secret night info that the vig doesn't automatically get. Of course, how to get that info into play during the daytime lynch voting without exposing said power roles to danger is one of the central dilemmas of mafia, I guess.
That, and the fact that a Vig's target can't role-claim or try to explain their actions.

[chrisk]

That, and the fact that a Vig's target can't role-claim or try to explain their actions.

Yeah, that's a bit harder to explain in terms of information - it's comparing an interactive process to a much less interactive one.

[Darth Sensitive]

As for whether or not I believe you, I don't, but that doesn't mean I wish to lynch you. First off, I don't believe you are the godfather, and that is where I think our focus should be. Secondly your position is verifiable. I suggest the detective check is out tonight and the cops pick other targets, since the detective should be able to get the most accurate read. The detective can attempt to leave a clue as to the verdict tomorrow.

Why would we not fight the symptoms as well as the disease. Until we get a lead on the godfather, lynching the recruits everyday works. If we collectively think that Pleonast is scum, we should lynch him.

It doesn't feel like scummy play to me, but stupid town play.

[Pleonast]

Menocchio, thanks for the detailed explanation. I disagree with the strategy you propose, but I see where you're coming from.

[HazelNutCoffee]

Ugh. I'm sorry for not posting this weekend, but I've had some personal issues that I've had to deal with, and I'm a bit of a wreck.

I really don't like this impending Pleonast lynch. The more I think about it, the more I'm inclined to believe his role-claim. It just seems a bit too reckless for a scum to try to pull off. (Yeah, yeah, never say scum would never/always do anything, I know. I'm sure it's possible that scum would take such a gamble; I'm just saying I find it more unlikely than not.)

I don't think Menocchio is scum either, which presents a bit of a dilemma in terms of voting, since no one else is even remotely close to being lynched toDay.

I have an early morning tomorrow, so I'll come back for a vote tomorrow afternoon.

[MHaye]

I'm going to channel Storyteller a moment.

Vote for who you think is scummiest. If you really think that neither of the leading two are scum (and there's good odds of that) then vote for the person who is. Not only do you leave a record behind, but there may be others out there who would vote for your choice, but feel they have no chance of making an impact.

[chrisk]

Unvote HazelNutCoffee

Vote CapnPitt

Hazelnut has impressed me somewhat with her sincerity since I voted, so I'm moving to someone else on my FOS list.

[Blaster Master]

So I'm one of the folks who understand your math, Blam, but I can see how you're going overboard here with some of this stuff. Plus, the above equation is wrong: it would count a Bishop as one of the unrecruitables even after he's dead. We don't even need a variable for the doc, vig or bishop: none of them are dead, and we know there's 1 of each from the game start.

It's (2+P+.5M+p(C)B)/n-s

You're right, I did make a mistake in the formula, as you pointed out with regard to the Bishop. However, that isn't correct either. The point was that the term that includes p(C) and B needs to approach 1 as p(C) is small, and approach zero as p(C) is large, it also needs to be zero if B is zero (which is where I screwed up), the the term really should be (1 - p(C))B not (1 - p(C)B); you could also make it p(~C)B, but that might be more confusing.

The reason I included variables for Doc, Vig, and Bishop, was so the formula could be updated unambiguously if/when any of those roles die. I suppose you could use a simpler variable for all unrecruitables, but then it gets more abstract; I was trying to keep it easily understandable so everyone can follow my math since it's a formula I made up and can't be backed up elsewhere (unlike the information theory formula I use early, which I can support with some external source). Plus, it allows people to point out an error in my math, like you just did.

[Blaster Master]

The problem with the vigilante is that there's no real discussion about who to kill. No explaining one's actions. No chance for a role-claim. No input from other players. They're firing blind and while false kills are part of the game, the Vig is operating with less information than the town as a whole has.

The advantage the vigilante has is that the scum don't get to vote either. Yeah, he's firing blind, but at least we know he's pro-town.

I'm sorry, I have to interject here. The Vigilante is NOT firing blind, he has the benefit of the town's discussion to go off of. There are other advantages to the Vigilante that the town doesn't have. First, we can be assured that his "vote" is pro-town motivated, even if poorly reasoned. Second, the influence of the scum is reduced, because it is only their reasoning, and not their votes that may affect his decision. Third, he can act in a specific way without facing the wrath of the town, eg "Why are/aren't you voting for HIM?" We all may :smack: when he screws up, but we'll also :D when he's right, and his towniness will be dependant solely upon his Daytime play and reasoning.

Can he be a liability? Absolutely, but he can also be a valuable asset, provided we have enough discussion to allow him to decide if he has a reasonable suspicion of anyone AND if it's a shot worth taking. So, please LET'S figure out who we should lynch, but let's ALSO get some discussion about other potential candidates.

[MHaye]

That depends on how you interpret it. If you mean, 'the town, working together openly,' then it may not have any extra info. If you mean 'the town, as the sum of all of its parts' then obviously there are other pro-town power roles who have secret night info that the vig doesn't automatically get. Of course, how to get that info into play during the daytime lynch voting without exposing said power roles to danger is one of the central dilemmas of mafia, I guess.You're quite right that some of the town power roles have extra information that is not shared with the town az a whole. But can that really be said to be information that the town has? In this sort of environment, I don;t think you should, and I interpreted "the town's knowledge" to mean what we all know from public sources of information.

The thing is, in context you were trying to whip up some in-game fear of what the Vig might do. Yes, the Detective will have more information than the Vig. The detective is better informed than most of the players in the game at this point. That doesn't mean the Vig should just sit on their tail every night. They have to be free to take their best shot.

You're right to be concerned about the chance that the Vig could take out a power role without warning. But so could the Mafia - without warning. Worse, they could subvert the power role (in many cases) and have it used against us.

I'm still uncertain about who to vote for. There's one issue to think round before I vote. I think we've just passed the 24 hour to go mark so I can take a little time.

Back in a while.

[Santo Rugger]

Theory: Pleonast is scum who was recruited by a male Boss and "slipped" that the boss was female.



That, and the fact that a Vig's target can't role-claim or try to explain their actions.

That's not always a bad thing.

[Blaster Master]

Okay, time to play some mind games with the scum. :p

There's actually three possibilities regarding Pleonast, and I think they SHOULD be brought up, because it's changing my opinion about what we should do with regard to him. He could either be scum or town AND he could either be the Priest or not; obviously, one alternative is impossible (scum AND Priest), so let's look at potential motivations behind his actions:

1) Priest - Simple scenario, he did exactly what he said he did for the reasons he said. Not much to discuss here, but clearly pro-town motivated, even if you disagree with the reasoning

2) Scum - Simple, he panicked and made an unwisely rash decision. However, he also should have been aware that IF he lives through the Day, he'd likely be investigated. Thus, he would be found out, unless he's the Boss and get's really lucky. OTOH, it IS possible he is depending on the third condition to be considered but, as I said early, it's rather complex and risky, and makes a LOT of assumptions that I just can't see scum doing at this time.

3) Pro-town and NOT Priest - This is a rather complex situation. This all assumes the scum would likely believe his claim knowing that he's not scum. Assume he's some other valuable pro-town power role. If he's, say, the Doctor, and attempt to recruit him would obviously fail, so the scum would be convinced he's what he says he is. Further, if they tried to kill him, they may assume he was protected by the doctor, leaving them to look amongst those who supported him for the Doc, and allow him to protect someone else. Or maybe he's another pro-town role, but recruitable; the scum may forego trying to recruit him (thinking he's a Priest), and since recruiting is still a valuable option, may also forego killing him, allowing him to use his powers for another couple of Days.

2b) The problem with option 3 is, that IF scum were playing this gambit (which, as I'd say is HIGHLY unlikely, due to it's complexity, and the necessary assumptions), it would only work IF the detective decided to investigate him (which he probably won't) AND he's the Boss AND he came up as another power role.


Bottom line, looking at this, the motivation is just HEAVILY lacking for anything other than a truthful Priest, so I'm actually inclined to discourage the Vig from hitting Pleonast, and instead, let the scum sort through the possibilities, because I'm quite certain that SOMEONE out there will investigate him, which is information we'll eventually get, and when he becomes more confirmed, the scum will HAVE to kill him, because they'll eventually have to start killing confirmed townies.

[Blaster Master]

I'm going to channel Storyteller a moment.

Vote for who you think is scummiest. If you really think that neither of the leading two are scum (and there's good odds of that) then vote for the person who is. Not only do you leave a record behind, but there may be others out there who would vote for your choice, but feel they have no chance of making an impact.

I want to add some of my own general advisory comments here as well. A difference of opinion and/or strategy is NOT necessarily a scum tell. Two people arguing could mean just about anything. They could both be scum, trying to distance themselves from eachother and possibly gain some townie cred when the other dies. One could be scum, one could be town, where the scum is likely caught and trying to weasel his way out of it by turning blame on the other. Most likely, however, it's town vs. town. It's very common for suspicion to be reciprocal, or for disagreements over strategy turn into the mafia equivalent of Godwin's law. But mutual finger pointing alone doesn't necessarily mean anything, as there's potential motivation for each role in each situation.

Similarly for those looking at "bloodthirsty" as a scum tell... it's not. Sure, scum want townies dead, but being bloodthirsty puts them in the spot light. Similarly, townies want scum dead. Similarly, NOT being bloodthirsty isn't either. Scum COULD be laying low, but then they risk the accusations of being a lurker. Similarly, a townie may be indecisive or find all the arguments unpersuasive, and not like his options.

The BEST way to look for scum is to examine motivation. That is, "why might a townie do this" vs. "why might scum do this"; whichever has a higher weight is the strength of that tell. For instance, a flaw in reasoning could EASILY be a mistake made by either side, which makes it a null tell, because there's no more or less motivation for either person. What's helpful is to put yourself in scums shoes and try to figure out what their motivations are, and then use that to examine the potential scenarios, and you can assign probabilities based on how well they line up.

Either way, we HAVE to remember that the scums' motivations aren't simply to get townies killed, as that could easily expose them. They want the town dead, but by providing the least amount of exposure of their own motivations.

So, when evaluating a situation like Pleonast's claim, going "OMG, only scum would do that so early" COMPLETELY ignores the the potential motivation for an a TOWNIE to have done the same thing.

Similarly, probabilities only make sense in certain contexts, and motivations is NOT one of them. For instance, the probability that Pleonast is a Priest is P/n to any of us, but from his perspective, that information is 100% known; it's either 1 or 0. Thus, the probability of him being a Priest really has little bearing, because he either IS or IS NOT. Which is why his actions should be filtered through the motivations of someone who IS the Priest and the motivations of someone who is NOT the Priest. Probabilities are useful for this game, but if we go purely off of the odds, no one is likely to be scum or the doctor or whatever else, but inevitably, SOMEONE has to be.

Blah... I probably rambled too long... so I'll stop.

[NAF1138]

I am going to come out and say that I don't like either of the lynch candidates we have at this point.

I think that we are idiots if we lynch or suggest that we vig a claimed power role. WHY WOULD WE DO THAT? Blaster's last couple of posts sum up what I am feeling farily well, but I think it is important to reiterate that the likelyhood of Pleo having false claimed at this stage is very low.

It has been interesting to kind of sit back and watch the game develope and be less agressivly involved then I have been in the past. This will likely change toMorrow, but it has been interesting. I am working up some notes on what I think at this stage that I will post before the end of the Day.

I think it might be a good idea for everyone to post just a general synopsis of what they are thinking before the Day ends. It will make it easier to keep track of everyone, and will make it more obvious if someone's viewpoint changes midgame.

I am sticking with my vote. I haven't seen anyone else say anything that has struck me as so blatantly scummy. Also, the good Captain's participation level has been surprisingly neutral. His post count is solidly middle of the pack, and his fluff to content ratio is about middle of the road too. He is just too perfectly on the fence, I don't like it at all.

[CapnPitt]

Blah... I probably rambled too long... so I'll stop.

I'm glad you posted that. It's really helpful for new folks like me.

[CapnPitt]

I'm glad you posted that. It's really helpful for new folks like me.


Grrr..no edit annoyance...I didn't mean glad that you stopped rambling. I mean for the post as a whole. Thanks.

[CapnPitt]

NAF all I can say in my defense is that I made a newbie mistake. If you want to lynch me for it, then by all means, go ahead, but you're making a bigger mistake by doing so.

After Millit pointed out the logical trap I fell into, I understand much better why it makes me suspect. However, I'm not scum and I have no idea what I could do or say to make you change your mind.

[Blaster Master]

NAF all I can say in my defense is that I made a newbie mistake. If you want to lynch me for it, then by all means, go ahead, but you're making a bigger mistake by doing so.

After Millit pointed out the logical trap I fell into, I understand much better why it makes me suspect. However, I'm not scum and I have no idea what I could do or say to make you change your mind.

I have to say, in light of the fact that CapnPitt is inexperienced, as I laid out in one of my recent posts, it's very likely that he'll interpret an argument as necessarily being between two people of opposing factions. That is, this is a mistake that could easily be pro-town motivated by simple inexperience. I hate to do this, but for those who are familiar with the Day Two fiasco of M2, I was one side of a disagreement over strategy which ultimately led to much of the rest of the town either taking sides, or assuming one side or the other simply must be made primarily of scum. In the end, I "won" because I had a trump card (I was the Vig, which was easily testable to the town). The reasoning that SOMEONE in the argument MUST be scum, led to the lynching of who I found out in subsequent games, was actually an intelligent player. Meanwhile, the scum pretty much sat back and watched us rip at eachother.

My point is simple, not everyone can be measured by the same ruler. For instance, these actions may be a classic scum tell because the motivation is clearly favoring scum, but only so much that he's experienced. Thus, both an experienced townie and an experienced scum would avoid such behavior knowing, for the townie, that it was silly, and for the scum, knowing that it would reveal his scummy motivations. IME, newbies, particularly scum, will tend to be very hands off, particularly in a case like town in fighting, because labelling one as necessarily scum would clearly lead to some guild on his hands when both were eventually lynched and neither turned up scum.

Thus, I'm inclined to believe, if anything, that his actions show a slight tendency toward newbie townie mistake than newbie scum mistake. However, I'm not really inclined to think it's anything more than a null tell, because of the following scenarios surrounding how he'd be scum:

CapnPitt is the Boss - I would guess a new player with a recruit power would almost certainly use it, with or without any understanding of the numbers, they'd likely simply not one to be one-shot and he'd want an experienced player for insight an advice. Now, I'm unsure if a new recruit gets any time to converse or not before the Day starts (I'd assume not), but if they did, he'd have the advice of an experienced scum, or he'd either have faild the recruit or not have been able to speak to him, in which case I imagine he'd continue to lay low. Being "distinctly in the middle", as NAF describes him, again, only appears to be low to an experienced player who understands how posting patterns can play out.

CapnPitt is a recruit - Without regard to why the Boss may or may not have chosen him, the Boss COULD provide some advice and guidelines before the Day whether or not they could actually speak before dawn. I'd especially expect information with regard to how they should seperate themselves, and how they should treat common scenarios (particularly disagreements amongst townies). IOW, I'd expect he would have been given some advice on avoiding those very sorts of statements.

Bottom line, had someone like you, NAF, had done what he'd done, I'd be all for getting some information out of him. However, given his predicament, I just can't see the traction for scummy motivation here.

[Idle Thoughts]

Sorry, guys. Hit a busy patch..but I'll be back tonight to catch up. Just wanted to quickly check in to say I'm still around (although I wasn't around much to post yesterday).

[NAF1138]

I have to say, in light of the fact that CapnPitt is inexperienced, as I laid out in one of my recent posts, it's very likely that he'll interpret an argument as necessarily being between two people of opposing factions. That is, this is a mistake that could easily be pro-town motivated by simple inexperience. I hate to do this, but for those who are familiar with the Day Two fiasco of M2, I was one side of a disagreement over strategy which ultimately led to much of the rest of the town either taking sides, or assuming one side or the other simply must be made primarily of scum. In the end, I "won" because I had a trump card (I was the Vig, which was easily testable to the town). The reasoning that SOMEONE in the argument MUST be scum, led to the lynching of who I found out in subsequent games, was actually an intelligent player. Meanwhile, the scum pretty much sat back and watched us rip at eachother.

My point is simple, not everyone can be measured by the same ruler. For instance, these actions may be a classic scum tell because the motivation is clearly favoring scum, but only so much that he's experienced. Thus, both an experienced townie and an experienced scum would avoid such behavior knowing, for the townie, that it was silly, and for the scum, knowing that it would reveal his scummy motivations. IME, newbies, particularly scum, will tend to be very hands off, particularly in a case like town in fighting, because labelling one as necessarily scum would clearly lead to some guild on his hands when both were eventually lynched and neither turned up scum.

Thus, I'm inclined to believe, if anything, that his actions show a slight tendency toward newbie townie mistake than newbie scum mistake. However, I'm not really inclined to think it's anything more than a null tell, because of the following scenarios surrounding how he'd be scum:

CapnPitt is the Boss - I would guess a new player with a recruit power would almost certainly use it, with or without any understanding of the numbers, they'd likely simply not one to be one-shot and he'd want an experienced player for insight an advice. Now, I'm unsure if a new recruit gets any time to converse or not before the Day starts (I'd assume not), but if they did, he'd have the advice of an experienced scum, or he'd either have faild the recruit or not have been able to speak to him, in which case I imagine he'd continue to lay low. Being "distinctly in the middle", as NAF describes him, again, only appears to be low to an experienced player who understands how posting patterns can play out.

CapnPitt is a recruit - Without regard to why the Boss may or may not have chosen him, the Boss COULD provide some advice and guidelines before the Day whether or not they could actually speak before dawn. I'd especially expect information with regard to how they should seperate themselves, and how they should treat common scenarios (particularly disagreements amongst townies). IOW, I'd expect he would have been given some advice on avoiding those very sorts of statements.

Bottom line, had someone like you, NAF, had done what he'd done, I'd be all for getting some information out of him. However, given his predicament, I just can't see the traction for scummy motivation here.


I understand your argument, but I am not sure that his newness totally exonorates him. The distancing himself from his own arguments, the staying in the middle of the pack. to me that says scum as well as inexperience. I would rather see him lynched instead of Mennochio or Pleo who I don't see as being scummy at all right now. It isn't just that he fell into the "one of these players must be scum" fallacy (which I could dismiss as just being new) but how he posted about it and how he has been posting generally. To me that all reads as scum.

Cap, the way you will change my mind is by a) dying or b) surviving long enough that other players are scummier than you. It's early in the game and one (in my opinion) big scum slip means more at this stage then it will later on. If you aren't scum you don't have anything to worry about becasue the worst that can happen is you will get killed.

[Blaster Master]

I understand your argument, but I am not sure that his newness totally exonorates him. The distancing himself from his own arguments, the staying in the middle of the pack. to me that says scum as well as inexperience. I would rather see him lynched instead of Mennochio or Pleo who I don't see as being scummy at all right now. It isn't just that he fell into the "one of these players must be scum" fallacy (which I could dismiss as just being new) but how he posted about it and how he has been posting generally. To me that all reads as scum.

Cap, the way you will change my mind is by a) dying or b) surviving long enough that other players are scummier than you. It's early in the game and one (in my opinion) big scum slip means more at this stage then it will later on. If you aren't scum you don't have anything to worry about becasue the worst that can happen is you will get killed.

Fair enough, I just don't see it. My only concern is, if he IS new, he's also likely to make additional mistakes. Similarly, for reasons I already laid out, I'm disinclined to vote for Pleonast at this time, and the mutual distrust between him and Menocchio strikes me much more as townie in-fighting than as potential scum trying to run a pro-town power role to the gallows.

That said, I've not been satisfied with Hazel's responses, so I'm content to leave my vote there for the Day; however, I also feel that a lynching on Pleonast is not in the town's best interest. That is, I figure given a choice between a likely power role, and an unknown, I'd rather see the unknown get lynched. So, if the choices remain unchanged, I will likely end up changing my vote in protest. And, with the nod to, Storyteller as brought up by MHaye, with the understanding that I didn't find him the most scummy.

Still, I'd like to see SOME other options besides Menocchio and Pleonast, because I feel like we're digressing back to the false dichotomy we've had in so many other games. I would like to see what people's thoughts are on my analysis of Pleonast's motivation for his claim, if they're still convinced is most scummy and, if not, who else they would like to examine in our limited time... we have about 18 hours, right?

[sinjin]

Busy weekend for me too. Will be back after a complete reread.

sinjin

[fluiddruid]

Mod question: What is our schedule, now? I thought we were going back to ending the days on Wednesdays and ending the nights on Fridays. I think I missed something somewhere....My apologies. I have been a little busy, and had to get the game going a little faster than I expected due to the unexpected opening of the forum. :)

Due to work constraints, I would prefer not to have the Day end on Wednesday and Nights end on Friday. I hadn't realized I had left these in the original post at all, to be honest, or I would have updated (it's updated now). But, I won't be changing the game clock as I posted this information earlier Today (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9524957&postcount=410) and at Dawn (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9520679&postcount=281), as well as in the game summary post, but neglected to update the OP. Again, my apologies. If anyone has significant problems with this schedule (since I don't want anyone to be upset that they signed up and now have a conflict), please PM me ASAP. Any changes to the game clock from here on out will only be extensions to Days and Nights, no shortening, so don't be afraid. :)

To recap:

Day Two has begun. The sun sets on Tuesday, March 4 at 11am Central time, less than twenty-four hours from now.

[fluiddruid]

Vote tallies:

Pleonast (7) - Hockey Monkey, Menocchio*, Freudian Slit, bufftabby, (Diomedes), Millit the Frail, OneCentStamp, Darth Sensitive
Menocchio (5) - Diomedes*, dotchan, CapnPitt, Pleonast, Idle Thoughts
CapnPitt (2) - NAF1138, chrisk
HazelNutCoffee (1) - Blaster Master, (chrisk)
Freudian Slit (1) - Hawkeyeop
bufftabby (0) - (Idle Thoughts)

Has yet to cast a vote on Day 2:
MHaye
Santo Rugger
Koldanar
HazelNutCoffee
Hotflungwok
sinjin
Hal Briston

Game master note: Please note that ever player must have at least 3 posts by the end of the Day as per the rules. I will be checking after the Day ends. No lurking!

[Santo Rugger]

Vote Freudian Slit, mostly that people will see that she had a few votes when they look back at the final tallies in a Day or two. Something about some theory I had that I don't really remember right now that had to do with Pleo, but I think we should let him live for now because he might actually be a Priest (although I think he should know better, but whatever...)

[MHaye]

Regarding CapnPitt and his "classic scum tell" as delineated by NAF and others. I realise that it's an easy sort of mistake to make, but just because the Capn is new doesn't mean that he's not also a Mafia man. I want to believe him but a little voice in my head is saying "You thought that about [name removed to protect the guilty] too, but they turned out as nutty as a fruitcake1, and they dropped a classic scum tell too."

So right now I'm going to vote CapnPitt.

Of course last time I followed up on something I'd noticed, it was the first time the tell was wrong. I think when my scumdar was built, they included a special doubt-inducer circuit.

My position on the front runners is that it's better to lynch an unknown than a claimed power role with immunity to recruitment. Thus I may consider tactical voting if the situation warrants near the deadline.






1(The game flavour was that the scum were escaped inmates from a lunatic asylum.)

[HazelNutCoffee]

I'm voting OneCentStamp.

For tossing out a Pleo vote and posting nothing but fluff toDay. I've read over the thread, and I know this is probably a scummy thing to say, but all the squabbles I noticed seemed more likely to be town/town than anything else. I'm thinking, if I were scum, the smartest thing to do would be to lay as low as possible for the time being. Therefore at this point I'm more inclined to vote for someone who's kept their nose clean. There are several among us who fit this description, but the way OneCent just off-handedly voted for Pleonast and disappeared stuck with me while I was re-reading, so that's where my vote is going.

[Hal Briston]

My takes on the largest vote-getters:
Pleonast is scum because he used female pronouns: Beyond silly.
Menocchio thinks Pleonast is lying: Well, I think Menocchio, but I'm not sure that that qualifies him as scum.
CapnPitt and the "one or the other is scum" bit: Not a good move. Yeah, that is a big scum tell. Could've been a rookie mistake, but...

Vote CapnPitt

[OneCentStamp]

I'm voting OneCentStamp.
*flips you a 100% townie bird*

*double barrel, in fact*



.|.. :mad: ..|.

[OneCentStamp]

OK, that probably wasn't very helpful.

I voted Pleo for the simple reason that I don't believe much of what he's said so far, including his Priest claim. While I'm not sure he's scum, he's the most suspicious poster I've seen so far, and I'd rather take the chance, even if it is only a chance, of hanging the right person rather than do nothing, since inaction benefits the Mafia AFAICT.

I've read the thread with avid interest since placing my vote, but I've seen nothing that inspired me to comment, much less change my mind.

[Hockey Monkey]

MafiaFest (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=458313) I'll be posting this on the proboards as well.


Right now, I'm sticking with my vote. My second choice is HazelNutCoffee, for oddly defending Pleonast.

[fluiddruid]

Vote tallies:

Pleonast (7) - Hockey Monkey, Menocchio*, Freudian Slit, bufftabby, (Diomedes), Millit the Frail, OneCentStamp, Darth Sensitive
Menocchio (5) - Diomedes*, dotchan, CapnPitt, Pleonast, Idle Thoughts
CapnPitt (4) - NAF1138, chrisk, MHaye, Hal Briston
Freudian Slit (2) - Hawkeyeop, Santo Rugger
HazelNutCoffee (1) - Blaster Master, (chrisk)
OneCentStamp (1) - HazelNutCoffee
bufftabby (0) - (Idle Thoughts)

Has yet to cast a vote on Day 2:
Koldanar
Hotflungwok
sinjin

[HazelNutCoffee]

I suggested a plausible explanation for his actions, if that's what you mean by defending. Hey, you went through the Conspiracy thread to see if his claims were true as well. You just interpreted your results differently. Call it confirmation bias on both our parts.

I still don't think he's scum, but that has nothing to do with the whole pronoun kerfluffle. I'll say it again - I thought the pronoun brouhaha was a tempest in a teacup. Your persistence in pursuing the issue is interesting, but like I said, at the moment I'm more interested in digging out the people who haven't gotten involved in the various skirmishes of toDay.

And on a completely different note, I find it really aggravating that both frontrunners for toDay's lynch don't seem to ping my scumdar at all. Then again, my scumdar never did work that well, so I suppose at this point we'll just have to see how it goes.

[HazelNutCoffee]

Sorry, the above is addressed to HM.

[bufftabby]

After a re-read and some notes, I don't think I feel comfortable voting for Pleonast based on what is probably my over-eager scumdar. So: unvote Pleonast. Instead: vote CapnPitt. His post where he let loose several FoSs (one in my direction, but that's not part of my reasoning) just didn't ring true. Sorry, that's vague, but I'm tired, and I wanted to be sure to get my vote in on time. I can elaborate if necessary. Just not right now. Need sleep.

[hotflungwok]

Yeah, I gotta.

Vote CapnPitt

[Millit the Frail]

Sigh. I also feel like unvoting Pleonast now, mainly because I can see the reasons against. I'm also scared to death of lynching a townie. And odds are, he's a townie. We're almost all townies. That's kind of awesome, it means the odds are very much in our favor for winning right now.

However, the odds are still VERY SLIM that we will lynch a scum. It's the converse of this great advantage. We're probably going to lynch a townie no matter what. Why, Millit, you ask, does this even matter?

In past Mafia games, we will often have a good 20-25% chance of hitting scum randomly, and still, we'll get to the 4th-5th Day before lynching a scum. The scum don't often stand out at the beginning. This could be the exception, but I feel like we're going to keep barking up the wrong trees for a few Days until there's some crucial info revealed.

At this point, I like HazelNutCoffee's reasoning for voting OneCentStamp, but I don't think that's going to go anywhere. I could totally go for randomly lynching someone who's been flying under the radar right now--it seems more fruitful than lynching any of the top contenders. So I'm going to cautiously step back. I can stay on my computer pretty much up until sundown, excepting a few hours to sleep. I'll place my vote before then. sorry if I'm kind of incoherent.


Unvote Pleonast

[Blaster Master]

By my count, Pleonast and Menocchio are now tied. As I said before, I'm not ecstatic about voting for Menocchio, because my gut is he's vanilla townie, but being the second option, and an unknown, I'd still rather see him lynched than Pleonast. As I've already made clear, I'm not content with the votes for CapnPitt. Is this the second Day that hotflungwok did a flyby vote onto a mounting bandwagon without any supporting reasoning? That alone is probably enough to put him above my current suspect of Hazel. So, I'll state it plainly, I'd prefer to leave my vote on Hazel or, in light of hfw's pattern, put it there, but I think it's still in the town's best interest to make sure someone get's lynched, and preferably a lesser claim or an unknown than Pleonast.

So, I will unvote HazelNutCoffee and vote Menocchio with the understanding that I will check tomorrow prior to 1100 (CST, right?) to either see Menocchio's claim and reconsider my vote, or see that he didn't claim, and lynch him against my better judgment.

[Boozahol Squid, P.I.]

I didn't want to do this, because I didn't want to jeopardize Menocchio's place as #2 (after the claimed Priest), but it looks like Cap'n is becoming as good a target, with much better reasoning than Menny.

unvote: Menocchio
votify:CapnPitt

[CapnPitt]

Strictly in order to try to save my skin:


unvote: Menocchio
vote:Pleonast

[MHaye]

Strictly in order to try to save my skin:


unvote: Menocchio
vote:Pleonast(Bleached)

You're saying with this that your skin is more valuable than that of a claimed priest.

Priests are valuable because they force the Mafia to kill instead of recruiting. Why is your skin more valuable than that of a priest? (Hint : if you're a vanilla Townie, it's not).

[OneCentStamp]

You're saying with this that your skin is more valuable than that of a claimed priest.

Priests are valuable because they force the Mafia to kill instead of recruiting. Why is your skin more valuable than that of a priest? (Hint : if you're a vanilla Townie, it's not).Priests are valuable. Claimed priests are potentially worthless. The difference lies in whether you believe the claimer or not.

[CapnPitt]

(Bleached)

You're saying with this that your skin is more valuable than that of a claimed priest.

Priests are valuable because they force the Mafia to kill instead of recruiting. Why is your skin more valuable than that of a priest? (Hint : if you're a vanilla Townie, it's not).


You know, just f'n lynch me already. :mad: I can't do a f'n thing right apparently and EVERY damned thing I do is a scum tell. Everything. EVERY THING. What if I said that I don't believe a damned word that Pleonast said? What if I said I was the Boss? What if I said I was the Bishop? What if I said the sky today is overcast where I am? What if I said that my mother is indeed my biological mother? What if I said I like chocolate? Is that a scum tell too?

Since this is looking god damned inevitable, I'm going to ask you all, after I'm gone, to please consider Hal Briston because he's been unusually lurky. I wasn't going to say anything about this because I thought I'd be accused of trying to distance myself. But now it doesn't matter because I'm facing the inevitable.

NAF please just remember your words "classic scum tell." And remember in future games that sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

With that, I shut up until I find out the results. In the unlikely event that I'm still around tomorrow, I'll resume talking.

[bufftabby]

After a re-read and some notes, I don't think I feel comfortable voting for Pleonast based on what is probably my over-eager scumdar. So: unvote Pleonast. Instead: vote CapnPitt. His post where he let loose several FoSs (one in my direction, but that's not part of my reasoning) just didn't ring true. Sorry, that's vague, but I'm tired, and I wanted to be sure to get my vote in on time. I can elaborate if necessary. Just not right now. Need sleep.

Ok, so this is the part where you guys realize I'm an idiot. I got my reasoning for CapnPitt mixed up with Koldanar's odd FoS-filled post. but that was just a mis-recollection of my reasoning, not a mis-vote. My logic behind my vote for CapnPitt was that he got pretty defensive when approached with accusations of scummitude. Earlier in the game, Idle Thoughts pointed out that I was apparently riding the fence for not officially FoSing, but just casting aspersions. I said something like, "oh goodness, I meant to FoS. Here's my FoS". Lesson learned, everything's cool. Then: CapnPitt does the same thing, but when confronted, he goes into uber-defensive mode. And stays there. As a newb who made the same newb mistake, his reaction rings falsely to me. I'm think he's inexperienced scum, plain and simple.

[Hal Briston]

I'm going to ask you all, after I'm gone, to please consider Hal Briston because he's been unusually lurky."Unusually lurky"? I made a number of posts last week, went away for the weekend, came back and summed up my re-read yesterday. Not my most verbose performance, but it certainly wasn't lurky. Did you just pull my name off the list of those who voted for you or something? I know this'll be ironic after your last post, but I read that name-drop as a scum tell as well! :)

That said, don't sweat it if you're town. Yes, of course we'd rather nail scum, but everyone knows that's a longshot right now. If you're town, then confirming that gives us info that we can work with. We'll find out soon enough.

[Menocchio]

You're saying with this that your skin is more valuable than that of a claimed priest.

Priests are valuable because they force the Mafia to kill instead of recruiting. Why is your skin more valuable than that of a priest? (Hint : if you're a vanilla Townie, it's not).
I'm not sure voting strategically for your own self-interest is a scum tell. I know I'm not scum. Pleo and CapnPitt, I'm not so sure (plus, I have a selfish motivation to remain playing). "Better him than me" isn't a persuasive argument to anyone else, but it is an honest statement of motivation.

But, still, at this point, CapnPitt pings my scumdar almost as much as Pleonast does, and without the possibility of being a priest.

Unvote Pleonast
Vote CapnPitt

[Koldanar]

Hey all...checking in, finally. So, I'm not with voting for either of our apparent major vote-getters at the moment. This only being my second full game, I see exactly whats happening to CapnPitt as a mirror of what got me killed in my first game. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for right now; the odds he really is town, or some power role, is large.

I still have my two FOSes noted; I'll need to go over their posts before I vote (as my boss is hanging nearby, but I want to make the deadline) so I'll check back in asap.

[Koldanar]

Ok, so this is the part where you guys realize I'm an idiot. I got my reasoning for CapnPitt mixed up with Koldanar's odd FoS-filled post. but that was just a mis-recollection of my reasoning, not a mis-vote. My logic behind my vote for CapnPitt was that he got pretty defensive when approached with accusations of scummitude. Earlier in the game, Idle Thoughts pointed out that I was apparently riding the fence for not officially FoSing, but just casting aspersions. I said something like, "oh goodness, I meant to FoS. Here's my FoS". Lesson learned, everything's cool. Then: CapnPitt does the same thing, but when confronted, he goes into uber-defensive mode. And stays there. As a newb who made the same newb mistake, his reaction rings falsely to me. I'm think he's inexperienced scum, plain and simple.

What, exactly, didn't ring true about my FOS? I was making note of behavior that, to me, wasn't exactly consistent with what I imagine a Townie to act. It's by no means a vote for scum, just a note, and a request of more information from you. Perhaps FOS was a bit strong? I still wanted to know what was going on.

[Hawkeyeop]

Why would we not fight the symptoms as well as the disease. Until we get a lead on the godfather, lynching the recruits everyday works. If we collectively think that Pleonast is scum, we should lynch him.

It doesn't feel like scummy play to me, but stupid town play.

As long as the godfather is alive we have two major problems:

1. The scum's numbers will increase and the town numbers will go down most nights. This is basically equivalent to a double night kill. So, if we lynch a scum during the day, and a town member is recruited during the night, we end the day in worse shape than we started it.

2. Almost all information is unreliable. We don't know what info changed since it was discovered, or if the provider of said information is still on the side of angels. Lynching recruits everyday is unrealistic, since we never will have anything to go on. Once the godfather is gone, we can consolidate our knowledge, and crosscheck the power roles. Until then, we will be practically flying blind.

As Blaster said earlier, our greatest advantage is numbers. The scum's greatest advantage is the godfather's ability to recruit. We need to use our advantage to take out their advantage.

A lot of this moot though, since we are dealing with unknowns. Pleo could be the godfather who just got unlucky. He could likewise be town. Personally, I'm starting to believe Pleo is a protown role, but not necessarily a priest. Without a majority required and the scum too small to be able to sway the voting much, I’m left with just voting for whom I think is scummiest

[hotflungwok]

As long as the godfather is alive we have two major problems:

1. The scum's numbers will increase and the town numbers will go down most nights. This is basically equivalent to a double night kill. So, if we lynch a scum during the day, and a town member is recruited during the night, we end the day in worse shape than we started it.

2. Almost all information is unreliable. We don't know what info changed since it was discovered, or if the provider of said information is still on the side of angels. Lynching recruits everyday is unrealistic, since we never will have anything to go on. Once the godfather is gone, we can consolidate our knowledge, and crosscheck the power roles. Until then, we will be practically flying blind.
Yeah, I was thinking about this while trying to figure out who to vote for. The scum have almost all the advantages. We have a couple of roles who can find things out, but they're very unreliable. Not only do they not have a good hit rate, the information can become useless in one night. And they're vulnerable to recruiting. The mob can just continue to grow and not bother killing anyone, and the only risk that has is the few scenarios that allow one of us to see it happen. Lynching helps the scum more often then not, but it's the only weapon we have.

This is going to be rough. We just may lynch ourselves into a mob victory.

[sinjin]

And I'm still suspicious of Pleo. I've been trying to figure out motives for his early claim both pro-town and pro-scum. I'm not coming up with any reason that's pro-town. From the back of my reptilian brain here's a pro-scum scenario:

Pleo was recruited and makes a pronoun slip. He tries to talk his way out of it but it's not going well. He claims Priest, non-recruitable and not verifiable. Very convenient. But he could easily be found out by the detective or beat cops so why would he do that? Damage control; in order to be outed he has to be investigated, this means less of a chance that the Boss will be investigated and found toNight. Also one of the investigator's has to come out of hiding to implicate him, BONUS.

vote Pleonast

[Blaster Master]

Ok, so this is the part where you guys realize I'm an idiot. I got my reasoning for CapnPitt mixed up with Koldanar's odd FoS-filled post. but that was just a mis-recollection of my reasoning, not a mis-vote. My logic behind my vote for CapnPitt was that he got pretty defensive when approached with accusations of scummitude. Earlier in the game, Idle Thoughts pointed out that I was apparently riding the fence for not officially FoSing, but just casting aspersions. I said something like, "oh goodness, I meant to FoS. Here's my FoS". Lesson learned, everything's cool. Then: CapnPitt does the same thing, but when confronted, he goes into uber-defensive mode. And stays there. As a newb who made the same newb mistake, his reaction rings falsely to me. I'm think he's inexperienced scum, plain and simple.

FTR, defensiveness is, at best, a null tell. A scum will defend himself, because he doesn't want to stop playing; a townie will defend himself, because he doesn't want to stop playing. There is precisely ZERO difference in the potential motivation because it is, in fact, the same motivation.

FWIW, CapnPitt is SCREAMING newbie vanilla town to me. I've laid out my reasons why, and people keep voting him without regard to my reasoning. There's a saying that goes (and no offense intended, but it's how it goes): "Don't attribute to malice that which can be attributed to incompetence". That is to say, yes, he made a mistake, but it's a mistake a new player would make, so don't assume it MUST be a scummy mistake. At this point, due to small numbers, I'd find it FAR more likely a new player would play excessively conservative and under the radar, NOT openly making mistakes that likely his partner would have advised him against, were he scum.

[Pleonast]

I'm happy where my vote is. I don't see CapnPitt as especially scummy; it all seems like newbie behavior, including over-defensiveness.

After the Day is over, I'll go back and see who hasn't posted much. Lurking at this point in the game is very anti-Town. One of our best ways of catching recruited scum will be changes in motivations. A player who hasn't posted much at the beginning, when they're almost certainly Town, will leave little for us to compare with.

I'm stating this publicly for two reasons: 1) to encourage Townies to post more to make themselve a less appetizing recruitment target, 2) to discourage the Mafia from recruiting lurkers, since they will be scrutinized more.

On preview: I see Blaster agrees with me about Capn.

And, sinjin ("I'm not coming up with any reason that's pro-town"), I've posted my reasoning for claiming when I did. You could at least acknowledge it as possible, if even you don't believe me.

[MHaye]

I'm not sure voting strategically for your own self-interest is a scum tell. I know I'm not scum. Pleo and CapnPitt, I'm not so sure (plus, I have a selfish motivation to remain playing). "Better him than me" isn't a persuasive argument to anyone else, but it is an honest statement of motivation.Actually, I see "rather him than me" as entirely reasonable.

Where it becomes anti-Town behaviour is where the player so voting is voting to lynch a power role of his own team while he himself has a less valuable role. This is one of the reasons i nearly voted you, after all.

Now we don't know Pleo's role; all we know is what he claimed. So we have to assess whether we think Pleo is telling the truth, what value he offers the Town if the claim is true and what problems he will cause if his claim is false.

If Pleo is a Priest, then his value is clear. As he cannot be recruited the Mafia will have to play around him, risking running into his one-shot power use when they recruit and (sooner or later) killing him - using the inferior technique and accepting the slower advance towards their goal to do so. And, so long as he remains our only claimed role, they scum have to contend with the possibility that he is being protected against nightkills too.

If Pleo is false-claiming then we want to kill him as soon as possible. But we can't afford to throw away the advantages above, which is what makes such a false claim viable. I'm choosing at this point not to lynch Pleo because our investigative resources may be able to confirm his claim. If they can't we can review the question in a Day or two. It's not going to go away.

On preview, Blaster also makes a good point.So I'll consider unvoting over the next hour (we have just under 2 to go) and if so who (if anyone) to switch to.

[Blaster Master]

And I'm still suspicious of Pleo. I've been trying to figure out motives for his early claim both pro-town and pro-scum. I'm not coming up with any reason that's pro-town. From the back of my reptilian brain here's a pro-scum scenario:

Pleo was recruited and makes a pronoun slip. He tries to talk his way out of it but it's not going well. He claims Priest, non-recruitable and not verifiable. Very convenient. But he could easily be found out by the detective or beat cops so why would he do that? Damage control; in order to be outed he has to be investigated, this means less of a chance that the Boss will be investigated and found toNight. Also one of the investigator's has to come out of hiding to implicate him, BONUS.

vote Pleonast

You lay a pretty looking scenario for scum well, but it really doesn't mean anything without being compared to the motivation if he's NOT scum. We CANNOT get stuck in a trap where we're only examining one side of the issue. IOW, that's a fine scum plan, but what if he IS a priest, is the motivation there for his behavior? I think it is, as I laid out in previous posts.

Look at it this way, if he's the Boss, then the Detective can investigate him and pretty safely trade his death for the Boss tomorrow... we'd have a maximum of TWO scum left, besides the boss, with all of our power roles out of 20 people. IOW, if he's the Boss, by claiming Priest, he's handed us the game. OTOH, if he's a recruit, he can wait, any investigation of him can sit by until it's needed to be revealed or he makes another mistake. We can ALWAYS kill him another Day if more evidence comes to forefront. IOW, even if we think he's likely scum, unless we think he's the boss (which he almost certainly is not), weighed against the possibility that he's a still somewhat useful power role, he's not worth lynching at this point, the risk is not worth the reward.

[fluiddruid]

CapnPitt (8) - NAF1138, chrisk, MHaye, Hal Briston, bufftabby, Hotflungwok, Diomedes, Menocchio
Pleonast (7) - Hockey Monkey, (Menocchio*), Freudian Slit, (bufftabby), (Diomedes), (Millit the Frail), OneCentStamp, Darth Sensitive, CapnPitt, sinjin
Menocchio (4) - (Diomedes*), dotchan, (CapnPitt), Pleonast, Idle Thoughts, Blaster Master
Freudian Slit (2) - Hawkeyeop, Santo Rugger
OneCentStamp (1) - HazelNutCoffee
HazelNutCoffee (0) - (Blaster Master), (chrisk)
bufftabby (0) - (Idle Thoughts)

Has yet to cast a vote on Day 2:
Koldanar

No current vote:
Millit the Frail

The day ends in less than 90 minutes at 11am CST.

[Blaster Master]

People also keep saying a claimed Priest is useless, I thoroughly disagree. He may not be AS useful, but he's still useful. Any claimed roll will eventually be killed or confirmed. If Pleo is killed by scum, he's served his purpose as far as his role is concerned. But his advantage lies in the fact that, if he's telling the truth, he CAN'T be recruited, so if we can get any measurable amount of confirmation on him, the scum HAVE to kill him.

At this point, we have a numerical advantage, but leveraging isn't just throwing bodies at the gallows until we get it right, and hope we maintain a numerical advantage. We leverage our numerical advantage by trying to gain information that will move players from the unconfirmed pool (potentially town or scum) to a confirmed pool (definitely town). The larger the confirmed pool grows, the smaller the hiding place for scum, and the less they can afford to take stabs at finding power roles, and the more they'll have to focus on eliminating confirmed townies to avoid being out numbered by confirmed townies.

Thus, if we can ever establish any credible reason to believe Pleo was ever town, he will ALWAYS be town, since a Priest is unrecruitable, thus making his end-game value extraordinarily high. Do NOT underestimate how important that aspect of his power is.

[Millit the Frail]

I don't think CapnPitt is scum and I'm sure as hell not tying it up. I was suspicious of dotchan earlier, and she's as good as any random person. No offense, dotchan, just trying to register that I'm not happy with any of the top choices.

Vote dotchan

[Darth Sensitive]

I'm happy where my vote is. I don't see CapnPitt as especially scummy; it all seems like newbie behavior, including over-defensiveness.

After the Day is over, I'll go back and see who hasn't posted much. Lurking at this point in the game is very anti-Town. One of our best ways of catching recruited scum will be changes in motivations. A player who hasn't posted much at the beginning, when they're almost certainly Town, will leave little for us to compare with.

I'm stating this publicly for two reasons: 1) to encourage Townies to post more to make themselve a less appetizing recruitment target, 2) to discourage the Mafia from recruiting lurkers, since they will be scrutinized more.

On preview: I see Blaster agrees with me about Capn.

And, sinjin ("I'm not coming up with any reason that's pro-town"), I've posted my reasoning for claiming when I did. You could at least acknowledge it as possible, if even you don't believe me.

(Emphasis mine)

I was coming here to make a final look over the case for CapnPitt. I was following most of the you being protown arguments. Never mind. My vote stands

[Hockey Monkey]

I'm not feeling the CapnPitt lynch. He's emanating townieness from his defense posts. Remember faithfool's frustration?

[Millit the Frail]

Oh, and I encourage CapnPitt to spill the beans on any night activities, if applicable. At least, do so before 11AM. It looks like death is almost inevitable, unfortunately.

[bufftabby]

What, exactly, didn't ring true about my FOS? I was making note of behavior that, to me, wasn't exactly consistent with what I imagine a Townie to act. It's by no means a vote for scum, just a note, and a request of more information from you. Perhaps FOS was a bit strong? I still wanted to know what was going on.

No, I understand. I just got mixed up on who I was talking about previously. I was in bed, three-quarters asleep, when I posted last night, and realized I was an idiot this morning. My reaction to you was not even strong enough for me to FoS you or anything. It only came up at this point because I needed to clarify my stupidity. I think my reaction to you was based on the fact that I was the target of your FoS, and I don't consider that a valid reason to be suspicious of anyone at this point. I posted last night to be sure I got my vote changed in time, but I didn't want to do it absent a reason, 'cause I think that's a scumtell.

[fluiddruid]

CapnPitt (8) - NAF1138, chrisk, MHaye, Hal Briston, bufftabby, Hotflungwok, Diomedes, Menocchio
Pleonast (7) - Hockey Monkey, (Menocchio*), Freudian Slit, (bufftabby), (Diomedes), (Millit the Frail), OneCentStamp, Darth Sensitive, CapnPitt, sinjin
Menocchio (4) - (Diomedes*), dotchan, (CapnPitt), Pleonast, Idle Thoughts, Blaster Master
Freudian Slit (2) - Hawkeyeop, Santo Rugger
OneCentStamp (1) - HazelNutCoffee
dotchan (1) - Millit the Frail
HazelNutCoffee (0) - (Blaster Master), (chrisk)
bufftabby (0) - (Idle Thoughts)

Has yet to cast a vote on Day 2:
Koldanar


The day ends at 11am CST.

[sinjin]

You lay a pretty looking scenario for scum well, but it really doesn't mean anything without being compared to the motivation if he's NOT scum. We CANNOT get stuck in a trap where we're only examining one side of the issue. IOW, that's a fine scum plan, but what if he IS a priest, is the motivation there for his behavior? I think it is, as I laid out in previous posts.

Look at it this way, if he's the Boss, then the Detective can investigate him and pretty safely trade his death for the Boss tomorrow... we'd have a maximum of TWO scum left, besides the boss, with all of our power roles out of 20 people. IOW, if he's the Boss, by claiming Priest, he's handed us the game. OTOH, if he's a recruit, he can wait, any investigation of him can sit by until it's needed to be revealed or he makes another mistake. We can ALWAYS kill him another Day if more evidence comes to forefront. IOW, even if we think he's likely scum, unless we think he's the boss (which he almost certainly is not), weighed against the possibility that he's a still somewhat useful power role, he's not worth lynching at this point, the risk is not worth the reward.

I'm sorry Blaster I just don't believe him. He lied about using different gender pronouns in the game he moderated. He claimed way to early. He never responded to my post 455 in which I outlined some of my questions about him. I'm voting for the one I find most scummy. I just don't get that scummy a vibe from either Manocchio or CaptPit.

[Blaster Master]

Sigh... we have 45 minutes, and it looks like the CapnPitt lynch is done, and above Pleo, so I'll put my vote back on someone I think is scummy. For the fly by votes without justification. I've not noticed him otherwise, so he could be laying low and jumping on bandwagons. I'll spend more time on him Tomorrow. I'm still leary of Hazel too, btw. Oh, and Hockey Monkey is third on my suspicion list... just 'cause.

Unvote Menocchio

Vote HotFlyingWok

[chrisk]

I'm feeling a little nervous about helping to start the CapnPitt lynch train at this point - it might well be a big mistake, but I'm still even less certain about lynching Men or Pleo at this point. And switching my vote again at this stage to someone who's unlikely to get noosed at this point doesn't seem like it'll accompish much.

So, Pitt, sorry if you aren't scum, but I'm standing pat.

[Koldanar]

No, I understand. I just got mixed up on who I was talking about previously. I was in bed, three-quarters asleep, when I posted last night, and realized I was an idiot this morning. My reaction to you was not even strong enough for me to FoS you or anything. It only came up at this point because I needed to clarify my stupidity. I think my reaction to you was based on the fact that I was the target of your FoS, and I don't consider that a valid reason to be suspicious of anyone at this point. I posted last night to be sure I got my vote changed in time, but I didn't want to do it absent a reason, 'cause I think that's a scumtell.

Ah, thanks for clearing it at least. Nearing the end of the day, I don't want to vote for either of the popular choices; neither seems to be the right move. I'll continue then with a vote on a person I FOS'ed before, and

Vote Menocchio

[CapnPitt]

I'm the Boss

[MHaye]

Fluiddruid :

The list of people who've voted for Pleo is only six players long, not 7.

The total number of all votes cast plus nonvoting players is 24 out of 23 remaining..

Even if the Capn is a new player who's made a new-player mistake, removing my vote jeopardises Pleoo, and for reasons covered amply in the past few posts I'm not going to do that.

[Millit the Frail]

Unvote dotchan

Vote CapnPitt!

[fluiddruid]

Vote tallies:

CapnPitt (9) - NAF1138, chrisk, MHaye, Hal Briston, bufftabby, Hotflungwok, Diomedes, Menocchio, Millit the Frail
Pleonast (6) - Hockey Monkey, (Menocchio*), Freudian Slit, (bufftabby), (Diomedes), (Millit the Frail), OneCentStamp, Darth Sensitive, CapnPitt, sinjin
Menocchio (4) - (Diomedes*), dotchan, (CapnPitt), Pleonast, Idle Thoughts, (Blaster Master), Koldanar
Freudian Slit (2) - Hawkeyeop, Santo Rugger
OneCentStamp (1) - HazelNutCoffee
hotflungwok (1) - Blaster Master
dotchan (0) - (Millit the Frail)
HazelNutCoffee (0) - (Blaster Master), (chrisk)
bufftabby (0) - (Idle Thoughts)

[Koldanar]

I'm the Boss

Err, is this a silly way of saying "FINE! Vote for me?" Or is this a confession?

[Hal Briston]

Err, is this a silly way of saying "FINE! Vote for me?" Or is this a confession?Maybe he's actually Springsteen?

[Darth Sensitive]

I don't think CapnPitt is scum. I get a 'pressured and defensive' town vibe off him. I've felt the exact same thing on other boards.

And Pleonast goes and advises the godfather on the last page and nobody notices.

[Darth Sensitive]

NETA - I think CP is taking his ball and going home. Not a confession.

[Millit the Frail]

Err, is this a silly way of saying "FINE! Vote for me?" Or is this a confession?

If the Captain is a power role, then it would be very anti-town of him to do this instead of giving us some info. (Sorry if I'm hung up on this info thing.....it's a side effect of my being pretty poor at grasping the subtextual stuff.) So he's either scum or vanilla. Doesn't matter, at this point. We'll know in 15 minutes.

[Millit the Frail]

Maybe he's actually Springsteen?

Baby, he was born to run.

He's just dancing in the dark.

It's a town full of losers, and he's pulling out of here to win.

No.....scratch that last one. :)

[HazelNutCoffee]

Wow, what a crazy few hours.

I am so not feeling the CapnPitt lynch, but if we must lynch Town I'd rather lynch a vanilla Townie than a potential Doctor, I suppose. It still sucks.

[Hawkeyeop]

Maybe he's actually Springsteen?

That was my first thought.

[NAF1138]

NAF please just remember your words "classic scum tell." And remember in future games that sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.



Hey man, I am surprised as you that anyone is actually listening to me. That almost never happens in these games.

On the other hand...it was a scum tell. Scum tells aren't alway accurate, but sometimes this early in the game, and with new players especially, they frequently are. Also this early in the game we don't have much else to go on.

Does it suck to be the first person lynched? Yup. But it has to be someone. And right now you look like the most likely to be scum to me.

[CapnPitt]

I figured if I said I was the Boss, nobody would believe me about that either.

Actually, at this point, I think lynching me is the best move for the town, because nobody will believe a thing I say from this point out.

Remember that I say now as a townie going to the gallows with nothing left to hide after I'm gone: somebody investigate Hal. His posting pattern seems weird to me. Count his posts and see that they're mostly fluff or agreeance.

[NAF1138]

Scum tells aren't alway accurate, but sometimes this early in the game, and with new players especially, they frequently are. .

hee, that sentence doesn't so much make sense does it. S'what I get for taking 15 minutes to write a 5 line post.

Also, Capn' are you really the boss? If so, cool beans :cool: , if not...why so angry? If you were a power role, you should have claimed before now. If you are vanilla...well, hey, at least you aren't getting recruited.

[Hawkeyeop]

I figured if I said I was the Boss, nobody would believe me about that either.

Actually, at this point, I think lynching me is the best move for the town, because nobody will believe a thing I say from this point out.

Remember that I say now as a townie going to the gallows with nothing left to hide after I'm gone: somebody investigate Hal. His posting pattern seems weird to me. Count his posts and see that they're mostly fluff or agreeance.

If we never believed people whom were previously thought to appear scummy, we wouldn't get too far. Its a long game and feelings about people will change throughout it.

[fluiddruid]

Vote tallies:

CapnPitt (9) - NAF1138, chrisk, MHaye, Hal Briston, bufftabby, Hotflungwok, Diomedes, Menocchio, Millit the Frail
Pleonast (6) - Hockey Monkey, (Menocchio*), Freudian Slit, (bufftabby), (Diomedes), (Millit the Frail), OneCentStamp, Darth Sensitive, CapnPitt, sinjin
Menocchio (4) - (Diomedes*), dotchan, (CapnPitt), Pleonast, Idle Thoughts, (Blaster Master), Koldanar
Freudian Slit (2) - Hawkeyeop, Santo Rugger
OneCentStamp (1) - HazelNutCoffee
hotflungwok (1) - Blaster Master
dotchan (0) - (Millit the Frail)
HazelNutCoffee (0) - (Blaster Master), (chrisk)
bufftabby (0) - (Idle Thoughts)

[fluiddruid]

The sun sets serenely over the horizon, but the citizens of Upper Doperville feel anything but calm. The votes of the day are set, and one unfortunate citizen has been marked for death. The bell in the town square is rung, and the stern visage of Uncle Cecil looks out over the amassed townspeople.

CapnPitt walks reluctantly through the town square, flanked by chrisk and MHaye. They assist CapnPitt up the rickety stairs of their newly-constructed gallows, holding him firmly but not unkindly. A few final moments pass as they stand upon the scaffold and put the noose around CapnPitt's neck.

As the sun sinks low and its light finally winks out, each of you feels a tightness around your neck. Staring at CapnPitt's doomed face, you hold your breath but cannot look away.

NAF1138 pulls the lever and the trap door falls away...

CapnPitt, a Townsperson, is dead.

It is now Night 2. The sun rises at 11am CST on Thursday, March 6.

[Hal Briston]

Hmph. Well, I suppose it was asking quite a bit.

Misplaced parting shots aside, sorry to see you go, Capn.

[Hawkeyeop]

Hmph. Well, I suppose it was asking quite a bit.

Misplaced parting shots aside, sorry to see you go, Capn.

Okay, now we can go back to not listening to Naf :)

[NAF1138]

Well, that kinda sucks.

I really am sorry to see you go Capn' and do hope you will play again in the future. Being the first person to get lynched is never fun.

[Menocchio]

Huh.

Well, c'mon Pleo. I'll buy you a drink.

[bufftabby]

Shit.

[OneCentStamp]

Shit.How the hell did that happen, anyway? It seemed he had a ton of votes, but nobody really actively advocating that he was scum.

:smack:

[NAF1138]

How the hell did that happen, anyway? It seemed he had a ton of votes, but nobody really actively advocating that he was scum.

:smack:


I don't really know. I think I was one of maybe 3 people who really thought that he was scum. I was shocked when I checked the boards this morning and he was well in the lead.

[bufftabby]

I don't really know. I think I was one of maybe 3 people who really thought that he was scum. I was shocked when I checked the boards this morning and he was well in the lead.

I really felt like he was scum. I think my 'dar is broken. D'oh!

[Menocchio]

We'll get into why the votes fell as they did in the morning.

[NAF1138]

Good point Menocchio. My D&D character just sobered up, so I am thinking it is time for my mafia player to get drunk. Who is the bartender in this burb anyway?

[MHaye]

Sorry to see you go Captain.

Maybe next time you can drop the hammer on one of us. In the meantime we'll hoist a few jars in your memory and go Mafia-hunting again in the morning.

[bufftabby]

*opens Left Hand Double Bock Goosinator*

Let the good times roll...

[Pleonast]

Huh.
Well, c'mon Pleo. I'll buy you a drink.Better make it quick. The Vig has an itchy trigger finger and I think we're near the top of the hit list.

The good news is we have some interesting voting to look at Tomorrow.

[Blaster Master]

Hmm... welcome to last minute lynching. Oy...

[hotflungwok]

Lovely. Sorry dude. :(

[Koldanar]

Capn, sorry to see you go and welcome to the club of First Game - First Lynch (FGFL). Your membership card is in the mail.

So, the chocolate stout is done, but the good news is my woman likes her some Blue Moon...anyone else for a pint with me?

[Freudian Slit]

Sorry, guy. Looks like he was telling the truth after all.

Sorry for my non involvement...lot of stuff going down this weekend.

[Freudian Slit]

NETA: Alcomohol? Of course!

[chrisk]

Oooh, I had to lynch an innocent man myself. :( :o :eek: :mad: :(

Where's the 'Can't keep my dinner down' smiley when I need it?


Hmm... to get drunk or not get drunk, that is the question. On the pro side, I could really do with forgetting this evening. On the other hand, it won't help my digestion any.

:mad:
(Sits by himself and wallows in regrets.)

[HazelNutCoffee]

Goddamnit.

Well, let the alcohol flow.

[NAF1138]

Capn, sorry to see you go and welcome to the club of First Game - First Lynch (FGFL). Your membership card is in the mail.

So, the chocolate stout is done, but the good news is my woman likes her some Blue Moon...anyone else for a pint with me?


I like Blue Moon, and I will take a shot of whiskey to go with it. Bourbon or Irish if it's possible, and make it a high proof.

[fluiddruid]

Idle Thoughts has asked to bow out, so Drain Bead is coming in as a substitute.

Thanks for playing, Idle, and welcome, Drain Bead!

[Idle Thoughts]

Thanks guys, I had fun and it was a fun game--what I played, that is. I'm just really busy right now and newly addicted to another site when I AM online.

Good luck to all and GO [my ex-team]!

Edit because I can now!

[NAF1138]

Thanks guys, I had fun and it was a fun game--what I played, that is. I'm just really busy right now and newly addicted to another site when I AM online.

Good luck to all and GO [my ex-team]!

Edit because I can now!


Boo! The first time you play in months and you bow out early! Boo!

On the other hand, WELCOME DRAINBEAD! Glad you could join us.

[sinjin]

See ya later CaptPit, make sure you play again. :) And Hi Drainbead--Bye Idle (shakes fist at Idle for deserting us for a new board). I have to go out in the snow later, so I'll just have a cup of tea for now.

[Boozahol Squid, P.I.]

We aren't kind to the newbies, are we?

It doesn't seem to work out in our favor, either. :(

[Koldanar]

Hah, I consider it a form of initiation now. Boy did I learn a little about how to play :) More beer please, I'm not nearly as drunk as I think I should be!

[Blaster Master]

Damnit, Idle, I was looking forward to stretching your neck for some completely obnoxious move on your part. :(

[chrisk]

Hi Drain Bead, come pull up a chair, have a nice beverage, and be vewwy vewwy quiet until the dawn comes.

:D

[Hockey Monkey]

Now that it's nighttime....y'all hop on over to MPSIMS that I meant to post in TGR. Grr.

I give you MafiaFest 2008. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=458313)

[Drain Bead]

Hi! I just finished the thread. Now I REALLY need a drink!

[sinjin]

How about a nice glass of zin, it's the merlot of the 20 oughts.

[Boozahol Squid, P.I.]

How about a nice glass of zin, it's the merlot of the 20 oughts.


No zin. I've got Bud Light and Crab Juice.

[Darth Sensitive]

I'll have a Mountain Dew. No desire to sleep tonight!

[Freudian Slit]

No zin. I've got Bud Light and Crab Juice.
Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeew.



Bud Light?

[Boozahol Squid, P.I.]

The Bud Light is also cursed.



And is mostly crab juice, too.

[HazelNutCoffee]

Gross. Someone give me a Woodchuck.

[OneCentStamp]

Gross. Someone give me a Woodchuck.
Me too, but only if it's the Granny Smith. That stuff is like champagne with training wheels. And I mean that in a good way.

[sinjin]

So which one of you fine Mafia players submitted this recipe?

FROM: Good ol' "Anonymous" MAFIA HIT


We created a new drink called the Mafia Hit. You take 3/4 of a pint of Woodchuck Dark&Dry and drop a shot of Jack Daniels into it and then slam it.

[MHaye]

I'll stick with the Dogbolter, thanks.

Livers are overrated anyhow.

[fluiddruid]

Dawn's at 11am CST tomorrow, folks. If you wish to use a night action (where applicable), please let me know by that time.

[chrisk]

Okay, the night is almost over...

[bufftabby]

I'm scared.

[OneCentStamp]

I love the smell of napalm in the morning. Smells like...victory.

[Blaster Master]

I'm scared.

Of what? I wouldn't be surprised to see no deaths tonight... for reasons which I think are obvious.

...of course, watch me die after saying that. :eek:

[fluiddruid]

Blaster Master is totally dead.

Ha! Just kidding.

[Koldanar]

Hey! No fair, messing with us mod person!

Someone hold me? *whimper*

[Drain Bead]

Man, I hate the last few minutes. It's slow torture.

[Hal Briston]

Grrr....stupid time zones. C'mon, it's 11:30! All you people living in the past, get with the program!!




;)

[OneCentStamp]

You know how you felt as a kid on Christmas morning, five minutes before [insert earliest time your parents would allow you to wake them up]? That feeling of excitement and anticipation?

Yeah, I'm feeling pretty much the exact opposite of that. :(

[fluiddruid]

Dawn breaks over the quiet village of Upper Doperville. The townspeople awaken and shuffle hastily to the town square. A count is quickly taken and everyone is safe and accounted for, and nothing seems amiss.

It is now Day 3. The sun sets on Tuesday, March 11 at 11am Central time.

[NAF1138]

Well we are all alive. YAY!

So...down to business.

How the hell did that bandwagon come together yesterDay? Don't get me wrong, I thought Cap was guilty as hell, but when I went to bed the night before the final day of the Day, Pleo was still looking like the lynch candidate? What happened?

[hotflungwok]

Hmm, no vigilante kill. That's odd. Maybe it was blocked?

[NAF1138]

NETA: you have no idea how hard it is for me to not hit the edit button so I can do things like add missing comma's. BAH!

[Koldanar]

I'm not entirely sure myself. It seemed like many people were willing to look at his statements and defenses as scumitude and vote based on that. Were people worrying to much about a no lynch? Scum pushing?

[Hal Briston]

Yay! No bodies! We....errr...well, we don't know if there was a successful recruiting, a failed recruiting or a blocked kill.

Huh...we really don't know jack, do we? Sigh...ok, back to the lynching board.

[Hal Briston]

NETA: you have no idea how hard it is for me to not hit the edit button so I can do things like add missing comma's. BAH!Or remove extra apostrophes? :)

[hotflungwok]

I voted for CapnPitt cuz I didn't buy the reasons for either Pleonasts or Menocchio's lynching. A few reasons for CapnPitt were presented, and they didn't sound like raging paranoia to me, so I voted. I honestly didn't see a huge reason to vote for him, just a little tiny bit more of a reason than for the other two main contenders. With no real info to go on, that's the best any of us can do.

[NAF1138]

Or remove extra apostrophes? :)


EXACTLY! I don't know why I don't see this stuff when I preview, only after I post. :smack:

Anyway:

@Koldanar: I don't know if there are enough scum for their to have been an effective scum push. Assuming that there were two scum, I would guess that one of them might have been on the wagon...but that is almost meaningless. I am more inclined to take a look at the people who didn't end up voting for, or changing their vote to, Cap.

[Menocchio]

We ought to assume that the mafia recruited.

Our immediate discussion ought to be about the lynching of CapnPitt. It happened pretty damn fast. I'm inclined to think that NAF was innocent, since the scum didn't really need to find a third candidate for a lynching. There was a lot of bandwagoning happening there, but again, most people were already voting for Pleo or myself, so the scum didn't have to hide out with the Capn either.

I'm not sure there's much useful there. The town obvious took "scabbling isn't a sign of scumminess" to heart and lept at a potential tell stronger than anything I had or that hadn't claimed like Pleo.

[Koldanar]

We ought to assume that the mafia recruited.

Our immediate discussion ought to be about the lynching of CapnPitt. It happened pretty damn fast. I'm inclined to think that NAF was innocent, since the scum didn't really need to find a third candidate for a lynching. There was a lot of bandwagoning happening there, but again, most people were already voting for Pleo or myself, so the scum didn't have to hide out with the Capn either.

I'm not sure there's much useful there. The town obvious took "scabbling isn't a sign of scumminess" to heart and lept at a potential tell stronger than anything I had or that hadn't claimed like Pleo.

I'm definitely with you on that assumption; but it still may have not been successful...so we can assume a range of 1-3 scum, with the odds in favor of 2-3 at the moment.

Good point both of you too...they didn't really need another candidate to add, as if Pleo were scum they had you, and if you are, vice versa.

[Hawkeyeop]

Here is the problem with focusing on the dead captain. We had, at most, 2 scum last night. Therefore, the scum behavior would likely be more similar to that of a serial killer than that of a traditional scum group. The scum would probably have wanted to avoid the spotlight and let the town attack itself. The town had little to go on, so the scum didn't need to push the vote in a particular direction. I find it more likely that the godfather was not in the lynching group than that he was.

[Darth Sensitive]

I'm happy where my vote is. I don't see CapnPitt as especially scummy; it all seems like newbie behavior, including over-defensiveness.

After the Day is over, I'll go back and see who hasn't posted much. Lurking at this point in the game is very anti-Town. One of our best ways of catching recruited scum will be changes in motivations. A player who hasn't posted much at the beginning, when they're almost certainly Town, will leave little for us to compare with.

I'm stating this publicly for two reasons: 1) to encourage Townies to post more to make themselve a less appetizing recruitment target, 2) to discourage the Mafia from recruiting lurkers, since they will be scrutinized more.

On preview: I see Blaster agrees with me about Capn.

And, sinjin ("I'm not coming up with any reason that's pro-town"), I've posted my reasoning for claiming when I did. You could at least acknowledge it as possible, if even you don't believe me.


Again. Vote: Pleonast

[HazelNutCoffee]

Yeah, the scum didn't NEED to do anything. More often than not, bandwagons tend to be frenzied townies. I would find it more likely that the scum are buried somewhere in the Pleonast and Menocchio votes.

I really want to go after the semi-lurkers today. It's just too easy - and safe - for scum to "coast" at this point, given their small numbers. Lurking is always bad for town, but it's worse in this particular game. I voted for OneCentStamp yesterday because he caught my eye amongst the semi-lurking crowd, but I'm definitely going to do a re-read and look for more people to FOS.

hotflungwok, I don't know why your first assumption is that a Vig kill was blocked. I think it's more likely that the Vig didn't try to kill anyone, given the discussion yesterDay.

[Hockey Monkey]

Hmm, no vigilante kill. That's odd. Maybe it was blocked?


Why do you find it odd?


My take on the votes is that it is more likely that there are no scum in the CapnPitt lynchmob. I am going to look at the one-off voters. Scum tend to hide there early.

[Hal Briston]

At this point, we really have no way of getting a clue as to how the Godfather was thinking. Someone was getting lynched yesterDay -- the scum could participate in the lynching or not -- their choice. Neither option would be more obvious then the other.

What they (incidentally -- I use "they" because I'm of the opinion that there was a Night One recruitment, and even if there wasn't, I'm erring on the side of caution here) probably wouldn't do it stand out by being the first or last to vote for a main suspect. Nor do I think they'd go out on a limb and be one of the only ones voting for someone. Hiding in the mix is probably the safest place.

That said, we can pull the lists of those who voted for CapnPitt or Pleonast, drop the first and last voters, and have what I feel to be a fairly good chance of finding scum.

Unfortunately, it's not that short a list: chrisk, MHaye, Hal Briston, bufftabby, Hotflungwok, Diomedes, Menocchio, Freudian Slit, OneCentStamp and Darth Sensitive.

Anyone find suspicion with anyone on the list?

On preview, I see HM disagrees with one of my points:I am going to look at the one-off voters. Scum tend to hide there early.I won't say I have hard data either way on this one -- my guess was that scum wouldn't want to stand out like that. Do you have any examples of this from previous games?

[NAF1138]

Here is the problem with focusing on the dead captain. We had, at most, 2 scum last night. Therefore, the scum behavior would likely be more similar to that of a serial killer than that of a traditional scum group. The scum would probably have wanted to avoid the spotlight and let the town attack itself. The town had little to go on, so the scum didn't need to push the vote in a particular direction. I find it more likely that the godfather was not in the lynching group than that he was.


Why is any of this bad information to have?


Here is my thinking, we will probably mislynch again toDay, the odds are just against us and the information we have is still small. But if we actually make an attempt to wring as much information out of each Day as possible, by the time we get to Day 5 and 6 we will have LOTS of information on everyone playing.

This is good for two reasons; it will make it easier to spot long time scum AND it will make it easier to spot players who have changed to become scum.

There are probably three scum by now (always best to assume that there are more scum than less.) and that means scum will, uncounsciously, start acting like a team. They won't mean to, but it will be impossible to totally stop. Searching for info at this point is the best thing we can do.

Also, will someone who is better than me at the math take a look at what a mass role claim will do for us at this point? I don't think that it is necessarily a good idea right now, but I think at some time in the next Day or two there should be some sort of LIMITED mass claim. We don't need everyone claiming, but getting a few semi confirmed town roles out there will (I think) be helpfull sooner rather than later. Again, I don't think it should be toDay. But if someone (BlaM I am looking at you) could work up the math on when it might be usefull...

[hotflungwok]

hotflungwok, I don't know why your first assumption is that a Vig kill was blocked. I think it's more likely that the Vig didn't try to kill anyone, given the discussion yesterDay.

Why do you find it odd?
Well, I've been going on the assumption that the first kill was the vigilante, not the mob boss. If the vigilante was willing to kill in that situation, I can't see them holding back when fingers are being pointed. My first assumption wasn't that it was blocked, I actually find that kind of unlikely. I expected something to happen to Pleonast or Menocchio given all the heated rhetoric prior to the lynching. They would be the likely targets of any vigilante, but also the likely targets of the doctor, or prayer. I'm wondering if maybe the boss did kill the first night. That would mean there's only 2 scum now, at most.

I think it's more likely that the Vig didn't try to kill anyone, given the discussion yesterDay.
See, I don't understand this. Why would all that arguing and finger pointing not make the vigilante want to clarify the issue a bit with some indiscriminant justice?

[Pleonast]

Again. Vote: Pleonast(Color removed.) Do you want to explain yourself?

[NAF1138]

Unfortunately, it's not that short a list: chrisk, MHaye, Hal Briston, bufftabby, Hotflungwok, Diomedes, Menocchio, Freudian Slit, OneCentStamp and Darth Sensitive.

Anyone find suspicion with anyone on the list?




My feeling is that you have to add the Menocchio voters list in there too. I do agree that I think it is UNLIKELY that scum are in the one offs. Unless the boss is a rookie, I just don't see that happening.

[Menocchio]

My feeling is that you have to add the Menocchio voters list in there too. I do agree that I think it is UNLIKELY that scum are in the one offs. Unless the boss is a rookie, I just don't see that happening.
I agree. I also don't see why the last voter is less likely to be scum. I mean, someone has to be last, and the scum can't predict if others will follow them or not.

[Hawkeyeop]

Why is any of this bad information to have?

I don't think I stated that it was. Let me rephrase. I don't think we should focus on the lynchers of Pitt more so than those who voted for others. More information is, of course, always helpful.

[Freudian Slit]

I don't get the CapnPitt vote--I just don't. He made a vague statement, and people jumped on him for that? personally, I really didn't see any scum tells in what he said, and if that's a scum tell for me, then so be it.

[hotflungwok]

I don't get the CapnPitt vote--I just don't. He made a vague statement, and people jumped on him for that? personally, I really didn't see any scum tells in what he said, and if that's a scum tell for me, then so be it.
Well, that's just it. All we have to go on is vague statements at this point. Pick the vague statement that sounds a little more scummy than all the other vague statements and vote for it. If the only thing we ever voted for was good hard evidence of scum, we'd all be waiting around twiddling our thumbs until the investigators got lucky, or some time around day 14.

[Hal Briston]

I agree. I also don't see why the last voter is less likely to be scum. I mean, someone has to be last, and the scum can't predict if others will follow them or not.Hmm...good point...hadn't considered that. Ok, new stratagem: Ignore any analysis I happen to put out. :)

[bufftabby]

I don't get the CapnPitt vote--I just don't. He made a vague statement, and people jumped on him for that? personally, I really didn't see any scum tells in what he said, and if that's a scum tell for me, then so be it.

For me, it wasn't a "vague statement" of any sort. It was his reaction to people questioning his statement. When I was confronted with an FoS for basically the same thing, before he ever was, I didn't freak out. I responded calmly and directly, and everything was cool. The Capn, however, blew his poor little gasket. In hindsight, he was just a newb who didn't take things in stride, as perhaps he should have. So, those of us who voted for him were wrong, but that was my reasoning.

[Blaster Master]

Also, will someone who is better than me at the math take a look at what a mass role claim will do for us at this point? I don't think that it is necessarily a good idea right now, but I think at some time in the next Day or two there should be some sort of LIMITED mass claim. We don't need everyone claiming, but getting a few semi confirmed town roles out there will (I think) be helpfull sooner rather than later. Again, I don't think it should be toDay. But if someone (BlaM I am looking at you) could work up the math on when it might be usefull...

I'm willing to work up a model, but based on the specifics of this game (namely, recruiting), it would be very difficult to generate a model that's reasonably accurate and simple enough to be useful. Further, a mass role-claim would easily give the scum the information they need to recruit freely, or kill indiscriminately. And, yes, we likely have some detective roles but, as we get farther and farther into the game, the information they have is more and more likely to be obsoleted by additional recruitments.

Even worse, we'd have to have some sort of system in place to handle specific situations, primarily because we don't have any way of knowing how many of certain roles there are. For instance, I'd guess there are 3 Priests, what if we get 4 claims, if they are 4, then we'll probably end up wasting time looking there for scum, while the scum simply leave them alive until they're confirmed. What if there are 5 claims?

IOW, I can't see the efficacy of a mass role-claim at this point, unless we think we'll gain substantially more information than the scum will. Intuitively, I just can't see that being the case; however, if enough people think it would be a worthwhile endeavor, I'm willing to take the time to do it.

[Boozahol Squid, P.I.]

I'm just going to go out on a limb and suggest the lack of a death last night means the Vig was suitably shamed for his overeager stabbiness last night, and didn't kill again tonight. We should assume we're now dealing with 3 scum, unless a recruitment got locked somewhere along the way.

[Freudian Slit]

I guess I don't get how the CapnPitt vague statement was any scummier than Pleonast's, or anyone else's. And clearly it wasn't, since he wasn't scum.

So far all I can see is bloodthirsty Townies. I do indeed think that the Godfather is probably stepping back, recruiting and letting us do the dirty work for now.

[NAF1138]

IOW, I can't see the efficacy of a mass role-claim at this point, unless we think we'll gain substantially more information than the scum will. Intuitively, I just can't see that being the case; however, if enough people think it would be a worthwhile endeavor, I'm willing to take the time to do it.

I agree, like I said, I don't think now is the right time. And I am not sure that a total mass claim will ever be a good idea. But possibly a mass claim of the non recuritables at some point? That sort of thing.

What I really want to know is at what point do the scales tip so the benefit out weighs the risk. They have to tip at some point, and I suspect that the odds tip more in our favor sooner rather than later; when the scum are few in numbers and there are a large number of confrmable roles. Then they probably tip away, and tip back again near the end of the game. But I can't do the math to make it clear when/if this happens.

[Freudian Slit]

I'm just going to go out on a limb and suggest the lack of a death last night means the Vig was suitably shamed for his overeager stabbiness last night, and didn't kill again tonight. We should assume we're now dealing with 3 scum, unless a recruitment got locked somewhere along the way.
NETA: Agree with this. The numbers are indeed adding up.

[Blaster Master]

Hmm, no vigilante kill. That's odd. Maybe it was blocked?

For the record, any reasoning about why the vigilante attempted a kill and was blocked or didn't attempt a kill is 100% fruitless. His motivations, when we have a no-kill Night, is completely irrelevant because, the results are the same, and trying to figure out who he is or his reasoning gives us NO headway in finding scum. If ANYTHING, this sort of discussion looks like powerrole fishing, by either trying to figure out who the Vig is OR trying to figure out who the Doctor may have blocked. IOW, I think discussion of the Vig's motives IS fruitful when we have a kill, so we can try to narrow down whether the kill was him or scum, but otherwise, it's an unnecessary distraction for town.

So, because this stinks of power role fishing, on top of your completely unreasoned bandwagon jumping the last two Days, I'm happy to put my vote back on you.

Vote hotflungwok


Now, all of that said, what we CAN reason from the lack of kills last Night is one of three situations: 1) Successful recruit 2) Failed recruit 3) Failed kill

I think the third scenario is unlikely because the only way a kill would fail is if it was blocked. This is a fairly low probability, considering that I personally have few reads on whom the Doctor may be and I'd expect that he's self-protecting.

My theory is, given that there was no kill, we can say with a reasonably high certainty (given the low probability of a kill attempt, further including the large amount of circumstantial evidence that it didn't happen), probably greater than 95% that the scum attempted a recruit last Night. Also considering that if Pleonast is indeed truthful (which the scum would know), it increases the success rate of a recruit above that predicted by the formula I provided yesterday.

Without crunching numbers (but I can if anyone really wants me to), given that my expected number of scum yesterday was around 1.6 (IIRC), I'd say the expected number is 2<X<=2.5; IOW, I'd say it's almost certain that there's 2 scum, but it's not unlikely that that there was either failed recruitment and/or a kill attempt in the last two Days such that there is not 3. Again, if anyone wants more solid numbers, I can go back and crunch math, but it seems people generally aren't really that interested in that sort of information.

[Blaster Master]

Well, that's just it. All we have to go on is vague statements at this point. Pick the vague statement that sounds a little more scummy than all the other vague statements and vote for it. If the only thing we ever voted for was good hard evidence of scum, we'd all be waiting around twiddling our thumbs until the investigators got lucky, or some time around day 14.

Huh? Have you read any of my posts from yesterday? Even a scummy looking "vague statement" (whatever that means), isn't necessarily a sign of scumminess. The best way to find scum is to evaluate motivation behind actions. Bad ideas, bad strategy, bad grammar... they can all be made by well intentioned townies just as well as they can be made by maliciously intentioned scum. An anti-town strategy could simply be the result of poor reasoning and not necessarily an attempt to lead the town in a poor direction. In fact, it usually IS a misguided townie because a poor strategy tends to draw negative attention on scum.

Going "Hey, that looks scummy!" and voting on a gut feeling, is decidedly anti-town, because when you come at an impass, you have no way of making a real case, because if someone doesn't share your view or interpretation, it won't lead anywhere. We should be discussing why a "tell" is a scum tell, and why scum in that particular situation are more likely to do it than a townie in that situation.

Bottom line, even if a particular action is the most anti-town thing you can imagine, if a townie still has a reasonable amount of motivation to do that action (particularly where flawed reasoning, intuition, or secret information is involved), it provides very little or possibly even bad information.

[Blaster Master]

For me, it wasn't a "vague statement" of any sort. It was his reaction to people questioning his statement. When I was confronted with an FoS for basically the same thing, before he ever was, I didn't freak out. I responded calmly and directly, and everything was cool. The Capn, however, blew his poor little gasket. In hindsight, he was just a newb who didn't take things in stride, as perhaps he should have. So, those of us who voted for him were wrong, but that was my reasoning.

As I stated yesterday, defensiveness is NOT a scum tell; in fact, more often than not, over defensiveness tends to be a townie tell, particularly a vanilla townie. You HAVE to look at it from a motivation perspective. Obviously, a scum doesn't want to get lynched, it's bad, so he obviously has motivation to be defensive. Similarly, a townie, particularly a vanilla townie, CANNOT defend himself, because his claim is worthless, he has no information, and it get's frustrating and can lead to a flaired temper. Clearly, the motivation for such behavior is pretty darn close to zero, if not favoring town.

In fact, IME, I've only ever seen a hyper-defensive response from scum once, and that was only after he had gone completely bonkers as a townie in the previous game (this is a direct reference to Idle Thoughts :p ). The continued justification of votes for CapnPitt using this, especially AFTER I made my post explaining that it was a null tell without a counter-explaination of why you, specifically, don't see it as a null tell is, at best, specious reasoning, and at worst, anti-town motivated.

That said, I think it's very likely that there is at least one scum on the CapnPitt wagon. Given the waning momentum of the Pleonast wagon, and CapnPitt practically screaming that he was vanilla townie, it would be very easy for scum to put a vote on him with very little reasoning and get very little backlash as a result. I will have to go back and look at the timing to see if I can't pull out specific individuals I find the most suspicious.

[hotflungwok]

For the record, any reasoning about why the vigilante attempted a kill and was blocked or didn't attempt a kill is 100% fruitless.

I think the third scenario is unlikely because the only way a kill would fail is if it was blocked. This is a fairly low probability, considering that I personally have few reads on whom the Doctor may be and I'd expect that he's self-protecting.
Wait, so when I speculate it's useless, but not when you do it?

So, because this stinks of power role fishing, on top of your completely unreasoned bandwagon jumping the last two Days, I'm happy to put my vote back on you.
How is what I said role fishing? In speculation, I asked something. It's been done a lot in this thread. For a role to be revealed the role would have to open his mouth and say it was them, because they're the only one who would have that knowledge.

Again, if anyone wants more solid numbers, I can go back and crunch math, but it seems people generally aren't really that interested in that sort of information.
They might be, if those numbers had any evidence behind them. All of us can figure out what the likely number of scum in the town is given whether or not A or B happened. But because we don't know any of those things, we're just guessing.

Going "Hey, that looks scummy!" and voting on a gut feeling, is decidedly anti-town, because when you come at an impass, you have no way of making a real case, because if someone doesn't share your view or interpretation, it won't lead anywhere. We should be discussing why a "tell" is a scum tell, and why scum in that particular situation are more likely to do it than a townie in that situation.

What? We don't have any real evidence at this point, everything is a gut feeling. Discussing why or why not a tell is a scum tell just gets everyone's opinions out there, it isn't going to establish anything 100%. Your opinion is just as valid as mine, but it doesn't mean that either of them is right. Even after all the discussion is over, each of us has to make a decision. And because we still don't have any hard evidence, it comes down to a gut feeling.

[hotflungwok]

That said, I think it's very likely that there is at least one scum on the CapnPitt wagon. Given the waning momentum of the Pleonast wagon, and CapnPitt practically screaming that he was vanilla townie, it would be very easy for scum to put a vote on him with very little reasoning and get very little backlash as a result. I will have to go back and look at the timing to see if I can't pull out specific individuals I find the most suspicious.
Didn't you already do that?

[Blaster Master]

Wait, so when I speculate it's useless, but not when you do it?
The quote to which you responded is taken out of context. I was clearly refering to a potential failed kill attempt by scum. Your reference to a failed kill attempt was by the Vig. I specifically said that reasoning on the Vig's actions are only useful IF it can provide more information about the scum. In this case, whether he attempted and failed, or whether he didn't attempt, both provide the exact same result, so attempting to differentiate provides no additional information with regard to the scum's actions, so it is useless.
How is what I said role fishing? In speculation, I asked something. It's been done a lot in this thread. For a role to be revealed the role would have to open his mouth and say it was them, because they're the only one who would have that knowledge.
Trying to figure out how a power role behaved has no intuitively obvious reason why it is a pro-town discussion. I explicitly stated WHY I think reasoning on the Vig's behavior last night is, at best, town-neutral. So tell me, why do you think discussion of the Vig's actions last Night could lead to useful information for the town? If you can provide a good reason, I'll concede this point.
They might be, if those numbers had any evidence behind them. All of us can figure out what the likely number of scum in the town is given whether or not A or B happened. But because we don't know any of those things, we're just guessing.
This is exactly why I didn't go ahead and do it, because it's largely based on my estimations and my guesses as to game set up. If people have differing opinions, then my numbers aren't very useful. Further, when I DO crunch numbers, to avoid accusations about where I got my numbers from, I make an attempt to always provide information about where they came from, and if they ARE guesses or estimates, I either provide my reasoning (if it's an estimate), or plainly state that it's a guess.

That said, constantly stating "we're just guessing" is the wrong approach too. For instance, I GUESSED that there were three Priests yesterday. Is it accurate? Who knows, but I'd bet dollars to donuts its more accurate than a guess of 15 Priests. We're not going to get a whole lot of plainly black and white evidence, we have to piece together fuzzy information with reasonable guesses and estimates. We CANNOT continue to hold all alternatives as equally likely, or we will never infer ANY useful information.

If people want me to crunch numbers, I'm fine with it, I'll crunch them and use my estimates. If people like my formulae, but don't like my numbers, and want me to use other assumptions to compare and contrast, I'm fine with that too. I try to provide enough information so that people who can follow my math know I'm not deliberately fudging it.

Bottom line, saying the numbers have evidence behind them and are just guessing, is patently false
What? We don't have any real evidence at this point, everything is a gut feeling. Discussing why or why not a tell is a scum tell just gets everyone's opinions out there, it isn't going to establish anything 100%. Your opinion is just as valid as mine, but it doesn't mean that either of them is right. Even after all the discussion is over, each of us has to make a decision. And because we still don't have any hard evidence, it comes down to a gut feeling.
I believe this is a poor job explaining my point on my side, but this just plain isn't true. Establishing motivation isn't a hard science, but it isn't just intuition and opinion either. We will establish different opinions about the levels of motivations for particular actions, so there is a certain amount of opinion and intuition involved. My main issue with how yesterday went down was that people were discussing anti-town motivation, but were completely ignoring potential pro-town motivation.

For instance, yes, defensiveness can be anti-town motivated, but when compared to the potential motivation for a townie to do it, it just doesn't provide any information. I specifically stated this yesterday, and made several references to how motivation should be used as the primary tool for evaluating actions as opposed to risk/reward or pro-town/anti-town evaluation models.
Didn't you already do that?
Are you serious? If I'd have done this, I'd have provided a list, explained why I found the timing suspicious, and followed up on any I thought would be fruitful. The only person I've picked out specifically was you, of whom I was already suspicious from yesterday for different reasons.

[fluiddruid]

Pleonast (1) - Darth Sensitive
hotflungwok (1) - Blaster Master

[hotflungwok]

Trying to figure out how a power role behaved has no intuitively obvious reason why it is a pro-town discussion. I explicitly stated WHY I think reasoning on the Vig's behavior last night is, at best, town-neutral. So tell me, why do you think discussion of the Vig's actions last Night could lead to useful information for the town? If you can provide a good reason, I'll concede this point.
I didn't make the post so that I could impart useful information to the town concerning scum activity, I did it because it's what popped in to my head. Besides, the vigilante by himself is just as powerful as the town is, maybe more powerful because he doesn't need a consensus, and anything the town can do to help or steer him is good. Discussing the vigilante can help give him information or help him make a decision or give him a different perspective, and that's why it's useful.

That said, constantly stating "we're just guessing" is the wrong approach too. For instance, I GUESSED that there were three Priests yesterday. Is it accurate? Who knows, but I'd bet dollars to donuts its more accurate than a guess of 15 Priests. We're not going to get a whole lot of plainly black and white evidence, we have to piece together fuzzy information with reasonable guesses and estimates. We CANNOT continue to hold all alternatives as equally likely, or we will never infer ANY useful information.
But did your guess that there were three priests yield any useful information? Any of us can make guesses on things like that, I've crunched a few numbers myself. But because those numbers are backed by guesses, any one of them is just as useful as an opinion. People don't even agree on whether the first kill was vig or boss, a rather important piece of information given the numbers it affects.

For instance, yes, defensiveness can be anti-town motivated, but when compared to the potential motivation for a townie to do it, it just doesn't provide any information. I specifically stated this yesterday, and made several references to how motivation should be used as the primary tool for evaluating actions as opposed to risk/reward or pro-town/anti-town evaluation models.
It isn't always about pure motivation. Yeah, if we can narrow down likelyhoods, great. But we're talking about people, and people can and will do things differently, especially if it's to their advantage. What if a scum puts up a big defense because people think that a big defense is a town tell? What if I put up a big defense now? Will that make you think I'm town? Their motivation might not be pro-town or anti-town, it might be pro-me-staying-in-the-game or anti-that-jerk-who-voted-for-me-last-game. Saying that motivations are always pro or anti-town is just as big a mistake as saying that X is always a scum tell.

Are you serious? If I'd have done this, I'd have provided a list, explained why I found the timing suspicious, and followed up on any I thought would be fruitful. The only person I've picked out specifically was you, of whom I was already suspicious from yesterday for different reasons.
That was sarcasm, actually. Just remember, you voted for me without doing any of these things, and providing only gut reaction as evidence.

[NAF1138]

So, because this stinks of power role fishing, on top of your completely unreasoned bandwagon jumping the last two Days, I'm happy to put my vote back on you.

Vote hotflungwok



:dubious:

Weren't you the one who talked about looking hard at motivation?

Two thoughts,

1) sure, he's new...but while his behavior strikes me, it does not strike me as scummy. I don't see the payoff for scum doing this now, and doing it this obviously.

2) bandwagon jumping, at this stage, is something I am more inclined to believe a townie would do.

You were so level headed yesterDay...

[Darth Sensitive]

(Color removed.) Do you want to explain yourself?

Sure. It's pretty simple. You slipped advice for the mafia on how to recruit into your post (my orange highlight).

I can't think of a single town reason to do that.

Do you want to explain yourself?

[OneCentStamp]

You were so level headed yesterDay...
Off-topic, NAF1138, but I think this is the second time today I've seen you capitalize the D in "yesterday." Is it a conscious thing?

[Blaster Master]

I didn't make the post so that I could impart useful information to the town concerning scum activity, I did it because it's what popped in to my head. Besides, the vigilante by himself is just as powerful as the town is, maybe more powerful because he doesn't need a consensus, and anything the town can do to help or steer him is good. Discussing the vigilante can help give him information or help him make a decision or give him a different perspective, and that's why it's useful.

If you want to provide guidance to the Vig, I'm fine with that. However, discussing what he's done is irrelevant when looking at what he should do. Does it matter if he killed, or attempted to kill, when analyzing if he should try to kill Tonight? The BEST way to help the Vig is to make an attempt to find scum, and then he can use that information to decide, if his analysis of that information is worth the risk of attempting a kill. That's pretty much the best you can do for him unless you have specific advice.

Still, while it's fair enough that you claim to be trying to help the Vigilante, I still don't see how trying to figure out whether he attempted and failed or didn't attempt provides any assistance to him. Clearly, he's completely aware of that information already.

But did your guess that there were three priests yield any useful information? Any of us can make guesses on things like that, I've crunched a few numbers myself. But because those numbers are backed by guesses, any one of them is just as useful as an opinion. People don't even agree on whether the first kill was vig or boss, a rather important piece of information given the numbers it affects.

You're missing the point. My guess was fairly reasonable, as I didn't see anyone dispute it, and it allowed me to estimate the failure rate of a recruit. My guess is based on my experience playing the game and how I probably would have set up the game if I were the one moderating it. You're right in saying that I have no way to determine it's veracity, but I feel like a broken record when I say that leaving all options as equally probable is NOT helpful. I think we can all agree that a guess of 3 Priests is fairly reasonable, and the actual number probably doesn't differ by much, meanwhile a guess of 15 Priests is unreasonable and would probably provide a useless result if used.

So, yes, it's "just a guess", but it's not a complete stab in the dark. If you disagree with my guess, say so, and explain WHY you disagree, but constantly classifying my guess as completely useless, while not providing any reasoning or, better yet, alternate guess and counter-reasoning, is NOT productive.

Bottom line, do you think my estimate on the total number of unrecruitables is WAY off the mark? If so, why? If I'm off by a little, it doesn't significantly effect the resulting calculation. That is, if I got a 31% chance or a 36% chance, both still live as "about 1 in 3". If I got a 45% chance, it should live as "about 1 in 2". Absolute precision isn't necessary or even useful, but there IS a notable difference between "about 1 in 3" and "about 1 in 2".

It isn't always about pure motivation. Yeah, if we can narrow down likelyhoods, great. But we're talking about people, and people can and will do things differently, especially if it's to their advantage. What if a scum puts up a big defense because people think that a big defense is a town tell? What if I put up a big defense now? Will that make you think I'm town? Their motivation might not be pro-town or anti-town, it might be pro-me-staying-in-the-game or anti-that-jerk-who-voted-for-me-last-game. Saying that motivations are always pro or anti-town is just as big a mistake as saying that X is always a scum tell.

That is precisely what I'm talking about with regard to motivation. Motivations are relative to a situation where as "third vote is a scum tell" is an absolute which doesn't take the situation into account. Let me try to be more specific. A townie is trying to track down scum, he wants to maximize pro-town information, he wants to protect pro-town power roles, he doesn't mind sacrificing himself (assuming he's vanilla) if it means meeting one of those goals. A scum is motivated the opposite way, he doesn't want to be detected, he wants to minimize pro-town information, he wants to uncover power roles, but he may or may not be willing to sacrifice himself, but he has to accomplish these things while attempting to look like he's trying to do the pro-town things.

Simply put, your actions cannot be both pro-town motivated and anti-town motivated. Obviously, a townie will always have pro-town motivation, meanwhile, a scum will be attempting to look that way, but ultimately has anti-town motivation while will have to surface, otherwise all of his actions are against his motivations, and thus ultimately hurting his team.

Of course, there is the slight exception of the particular scum role of "survivor", who may or may not exist, who's primary goal is to live as long as possible. In such a case, he will tend to have as much of a pro-town motivation as anyone else, with the exception of the "willingness to sacrifice" versus "not wanting to die" motivation. Thus, it will eventually come to surface itself.

And let me give a hypothetical, but common, example. A given scum will know when a particular lynch candidate is or is not scum. He will then do one of three things: ignore it, support it, oppose it. Scum also know that constantly voting for townies will start to look suspicious. So say he chooses to oppose it. His motivation is thus "I do not want to have my vote on this particularly townie when he's lynched" meanwhile, a townie who opposes it will have a different motivation of "I do not agree with the reasoning". Obviously, the scum will attempt to mimic the latter. And, while it may not be easy to distinguish between the two, patterns DO emerge, and tendencies to favor a pro-town motivation versus an anti-town motivation, or vice versa, will show up.

To put it simply, the whole point is, either faction definitively has different motivations precisely because they have different winning conditions. Thus, if you can determine the motivations, you can determine the winning conditions, and if you can determine the winning conditions, you can determine the faction.

That was sarcasm, actually. Just remember, you voted for me without doing any of these things, and providing only gut reaction as evidence.

Quite the contrary, but I can do it again in greater detail, if you'd like. I found your two completely unreasoned votes suspicious because being in a large bandwagon like those is a good place to hide. While a bandwagon can be pro-town motivated, it will tend to be townies going "I agree with such and such reasoning", where as a "Vote XYZ" without reasoning has the distinct anti-town motivation of allowing you to add certain reasoning post hoc.

Town has the motivation to maximize information, not to hide it or leave wiggle room to adjust it later. Your actions with those votes are more consistent with the latter than with the prior; hence, my vote yesterday.

As for today, I feel like I provided my evaluation of your motivations sufficiently. If you have specific questions, I'll be happy to address them.

[Freudian Slit]

Off-topic, NAF1138, but I think this is the second time today I've seen you capitalize the D in "yesterday." Is it a conscious thing?
Actually, it's pretty SOP. It means not yesterday as in chronologically yesterday, but yesterday as in the previous day of the game.

[Blaster Master]

Sure. It's pretty simple. You slipped advice for the mafia on how to recruit into your post (my orange highlight).

I can't think of a single town reason to do that.

Do you want to explain yourself?

Huh? If he's going to give advice to the scum on how to recruit, he can do so at Night. That quote specifically seems pro-town motivated to me, precisely because he's giving his guess for how the scum may recruit. This is information that would be against the best interest of scum to propogate.

If scum DO communicate in the Day, they're generally not going to use such overt methodology.

[Blaster Master]

Actually, it's pretty SOP. It means not yesterday as in chronologically yesterday, but yesterday as in the previous day of the game.

FTR, I concur, but because it looks sloppy to say "toDay" or "yesterDay" I will tend to just capitalize the word. If it is grammatically ambiguous (ie, it's at the beginning of a sentence), I will tend to rewrite such that it is clear that the capitalization is intentional. Just a point of reference for those observing that I do not follow that convention.

[Blaster Master]

:dubious:

Weren't you the one who talked about looking hard at motivation?

Two thoughts,

1) sure, he's new...but while his behavior strikes me, it does not strike me as scummy. I don't see the payoff for scum doing this now, and doing it this obviously.

2) bandwagon jumping, at this stage, is something I am more inclined to believe a townie would do.

You were so level headed yesterDay...

1) Fair enough.

2) Yes, as I explained, bandwagon jumping is a null tell in and of itself; however, I was specifically referencing his jumping without providing a reason.

I made this patently clear yesterday when I expressed my suspicion of him, thus attempting to differentiate between my reasoning yesterday on those grounds is baseless.

Further, this statement of "You were so level headed yesterDay..." is an excellent example of a smudge, because you're alluding that I was recruited last Night while not overtly stating such.

Thus, I challenge you to back up this statement, that my reasoning has changed, otherwise it's, at best, an accidental misrepresentation, and possibly a deliberate misrepresentation, of my reasoning.

[Pleonast]

Sure. It's pretty simple. You slipped advice for the mafia on how to recruit into your post (my orange highlight).
I can't think of a single town reason to do that.
Do you want to explain yourself?Okay. Here's what I said.I'm happy where my vote is. I don't see CapnPitt as especially scummy; it all seems like newbie behavior, including over-defensiveness.

After the Day is over, I'll go back and see who hasn't posted much. Lurking at this point in the game is very anti-Town. One of our best ways of catching recruited scum will be changes in motivations. A player who hasn't posted much at the beginning, when they're almost certainly Town, will leave little for us to compare with.

I'm stating this publicly for two reasons: 1) to encourage Townies to post more to make themselve a less appetizing recruitment target, 2) to discourage the Mafia from recruiting lurkers, since they will be scrutinized more.

On preview: I see Blaster agrees with me about Capn.

And, sinjin ("I'm not coming up with any reason that's pro-town"), I've posted my reasoning for claiming when I did. You could at least acknowledge it as possible, if even you don't believe me.You complain about my point 2, "I can't think of a single town reason to do that". Well, read my point 1. That's why.* I even prefaced it with "I'm stating this publicly for two reasons" to clue players in as to why.

I had another, unstated, reason for posting my point 2--to force a kind of WIFOM on their recruitment strategy. The Mafia must now consider our suspicions when recruiting. Since they know that we will be scrutinizing lurkers as better recruitment candidates, they have to weigh recruiting a candidate who has short record (but more likely to be watched carefully) versus one who has a long record (and give more evidence when motivation changes).

*I assume that current Townies will want to minimize their chances of recruitment. However, there's a possibility that a Townie could play to encourage their own recruitment. This is especially true if we get to a point when the Town is not doing so well. Personally, I think it's bad form to try to switch sides, but unfortunately, the rules allow it.

[hotflungwok]

Still, while it's fair enough that you claim to be trying to help the Vigilante, I still don't see how trying to figure out whether he attempted and failed or didn't attempt provides any assistance to him. Clearly, he's completely aware of that information already.
Yeah but we aren't. In order to better utilize the vigilante, to whatever end, it helps to know their motiviation. Thus, you discuss it. Besides, discussing things, anything, gives more data to help you determine your patterns. I also think that figuring out how the vigilante works would give the protectors info they could use.

You're missing the point. My guess was fairly reasonable, as I didn't see anyone dispute it, and it allowed me to estimate the failure rate of a recruit. My guess is based on my experience playing the game and how I probably would have set up the game if I were the one moderating it. You're right in saying that I have no way to determine it's veracity, but I feel like a broken record when I say that leaving all options as equally probable is NOT helpful. I think we can all agree that a guess of 3 Priests is fairly reasonable, and the actual number probably doesn't differ by much, meanwhile a guess of 15 Priests is unreasonable and would probably provide a useless result if used.
And you're missing my point. Those numbers don't give enough information to make a good decision from, so it comes down to a gut reaction. I'm not saying don't use numbers, I'm saying be careful when using numbers that don't have solid evidence behind them, and don't knock gut reactions. We don't have solid numbers to work with, so a lot of this is going be gut reaction.

Simply put, your actions cannot be both pro-town motivated and anti-town motivated. Obviously, a townie will always have pro-town motivation, meanwhile, a scum will be attempting to look that way, but ultimately has anti-town motivation while will have to surface, otherwise all of his actions are against his motivations, and thus ultimately hurting his team.
But actions can be neither pro-town or anti-town. People aren't always logical.

And let me give a hypothetical, but common, example. A given scum will know when a particular lynch candidate is or is not scum. He will then do one of three things: ignore it, support it, oppose it. Scum also know that constantly voting for townies will start to look suspicious. So say he chooses to oppose it. His motivation is thus "I do not want to have my vote on this particularly townie when he's lynched" meanwhile, a townie who opposes it will have a different motivation of "I do not agree with the reasoning". Obviously, the scum will attempt to mimic the latter. And, while it may not be easy to distinguish between the two, patterns DO emerge, and tendencies to favor a pro-town motivation versus an anti-town motivation, or vice versa, will show up.
So in two days and one vote do you have enough information to see a pattern in my actions?

Quite the contrary, but I can do it again in greater detail, if you'd like. I found your two completely unreasoned votes suspicious because being in a large bandwagon like those is a good place to hide. While a bandwagon can be pro-town motivated, it will tend to be townies going "I agree with such and such reasoning", where as a "Vote XYZ" without reasoning has the distinct anti-town motivation of allowing you to add certain reasoning post hoc.

Town has the motivation to maximize information, not to hide it or leave wiggle room to adjust it later. Your actions with those votes are more consistent with the latter than with the prior; hence, my vote yesterday.

As for today, I feel like I provided my evaluation of your motivations sufficiently. If you have specific questions, I'll be happy to address them.
Hmm, yeah your right, I can see that. I should have at least said something about who's argument I was agreeing with. I thought that since it was just above my post it might be obvious, but I shouldn't have assumed. I can see this as valid reasoning for suspicion.

[NAF1138]

1) Fair enough.

2) Yes, as I explained, bandwagon jumping is a null tell in and of itself; however, I was specifically referencing his jumping without providing a reason.

I made this patently clear yesterday when I expressed my suspicion of him, thus attempting to differentiate between my reasoning yesterday on those grounds is baseless.

Further, this statement of "You were so level headed yesterDay..." is an excellent example of a smudge, because you're alluding that I was recruited last Night while not overtly stating such.

Thus, I challenge you to back up this statement, that my reasoning has changed, otherwise it's, at best, an accidental misrepresentation, and possibly a deliberate misrepresentation, of my reasoning.


Oh it was totally a smudge, and implied exactly what you thought it did. I almost ended that post with a vote for you, but decided I would rather see how you reacted to my post before I laid down a vote. As of now I am thinking no to voting for you.

I have a short list of people who I think are prime candidates for early drafting attempts into the mob and you are on it BlaM. Take it as a sign of respect. You are a dagnerous fella when you are scum, so I am watching you and a few others with special interest.

Now that we have gotten that out of the way, can we talk a bit more about the right time to role claim in a game like this? If, for example, the vig had accidentally outed themselves toDay, would it be prudent to role claim rather than risk getting targeted by the scum. What if a priest did it? Should we have a second priest roleclaiming?

I know talking about power roles is usually verbotten, but I think this game has to be played differently. I also think (after running You-Solve-It) that the risk of open strategy discussion is negated by the reward of more solid teamwork and better shared information. That being said, let's try to keep the talk abstract and numbers driven. I don't want anyone to actually risk outing themselves.

[Pleonast]

You have a good point, NAF, about discussing claims. But I see a problem. Many of our power roles can be especially nasty if made the Capo. I'd rather not let the Mafia pick and choose for the best one. So I think any mass reveal is best delayed until either the Boss or the Capo is lynched.

There's two exceptions: Priests. They could mass claim and make a core of unrecruitable Townies. Two obvious problems: 1) improves recruitment risk for everyone else, and 2) not easily verifiable. My inclination is that it's not worth doing at this point, but maybe in a Day or three when the Mafia switches from recruiting to killing. I think it should be discussed.

And Masons. They are not unrecruitable, but they are verifiable. Their 50% recruitment resistance makes them less likely targets. A mass claim will definitely be useful at some point. Probably not yet, but they need to consider it.

As for hotseat claiming: I recommend any power role who is under threat to claim. Maybe not as quickly as I did, but before the last day of the Day. Lynching a power role is always bad for the Town. Having the possibility of one recruited is gives us a chance at keeping you.

Reviewing the roles, I want to point out useful strategies to two of our power roles. Wish I had done this earlier. We have two recruitment powers on our side: the Bishop and the Police Chief may both promote a Townie. These should be done as early as possible in the game. If you postpone it, you may be killed or recruited before you can use it. Think about it.

[Blaster Master]

Yeah but we aren't. In order to better utilize the vigilante, to whatever end, it helps to know their motiviation. Thus, you discuss it. Besides, discussing things, anything, gives more data to help you determine your patterns. I also think that figuring out how the vigilante works would give the protectors info they could use.
I just cannot agree here. His motivations are clearly pro-town, so what is there to discuss about them? He will kill, or not kill, based upon his reasoning, or perhaps whatever reasoning he finds persuasive. Whether or not he actually does the optimal action or not matters with regard to acheiving our win conditions, but does not help us find scum. The outcome of his actions is helpful in determining what the scum may or may not have done, but all we can do is try to provide good reasoning and, if so desired, recommendations. Whether or not he feels like trying his luck or wants to play conservatively, whether he attempted a kill and failed, or didn't try at all, does not change the current state, and thus does not alter the optimal action for him (whatever it may be).
And you're missing my point. Those numbers don't give enough information to make a good decision from, so it comes down to a gut reaction. I'm not saying don't use numbers, I'm saying be careful when using numbers that don't have solid evidence behind them, and don't knock gut reactions. We don't have solid numbers to work with, so a lot of this is going be gut reaction.

I am being careful. I explicitly stated my guesses and estimates. Primarily, the purpose of the numbers, as far as guessing the non-recruitables, was to have an idea of the risk of failure for a recruitment. People were saying that recruitment has a higher chance of failure, therefore he probably would have killed. My argument was simply, yes it does have a higher chance, but because of the much larger reward (about double) versus still being more likely than not to succeed (about 2/3 chance of successful recruit), the optimal move, probabilistically speaking, would have been to recruit. Does that mean that's necessarily what the boss did? No. But, unless my guesses are WAY under what the Boss would have guessed, it's good reason to believe he probably attempted a recruitment and probably succeeded.

Treating this specific scenario as more likely allows us to utilize particular information more specifically. Obviously, my information theory stuff is just a theoretical model, for a more realistic thoughts like "it seems about the same chance", "it seems more likely than not", or "it seems very likely", etc.

The primary point of the model was to make the simple point that we HAVE to make some educated guesses about things because we CANNOT keep thinking of every possible scenario as equally likely, otherwise, we have a very large noise ratio.

So, sure, I'm willing to conceed I don't have hard evidence that there's 3 Priests; it's based on my personal experience with out this game tends to be set up. However, I don't think it's a terribly inaccurate guess that will effect the general notions of likelihood in a such a substantial way that "more likely than not" becomes "equally likely" or even "less likely than not".
But actions can be neither pro-town or anti-town. People aren't always logical.
This is simply terminology. A pro-town action is an action that benefits the town, an anti-town action is an action that hurts the town. For instance, I would have said that the no-lynch on Day One was against the best interests of the town, thus a vote for a no-lynch was an anti-town action. Obviously, interpretations of what is pro-town or anti-town can vary and, more specifically, at most one person who voted for the no-lynch was scum, and so the correlation between pro-town action and pro-town motivation is simply necessarily weak at best.

This is why I've said not to look at things like definisiveness or grammatical slips because, while they may or may not be an anti-town action, the motivations, and thus ultimately the actual towniness or scumminess of the individual, they simply do no have any real, tangible correlation to scumminess.
So in two days and one vote do you have enough information to see a pattern in my actions?
I had observed a pattern over two Days, which is as much as could be observed over two Days. That pattern may or may not change; obviously, we're still early int he game. Given the information available, the pro-town motivations based on the actions I observed seemed definitively less than the other options (Pleonast, Menocchio, and CapnPitt).
Hmm, yeah your right, I can see that. I should have at least said something about who's argument I was agreeing with. I thought that since it was just above my post it might be obvious, but I shouldn't have assumed. I can see this as valid reasoning for suspicion.
It is always in the best interest of town to provide a trail for their reasoning, but doing so, it allows for accountability for their actions as well as forces the scum to also provide trails. A vote without reasoning does not leave traces of the underlying motivation, but even a badly reasoned vote does.

To refer back to a post I made yesterday about how this game essentially pits our numerical advantage against the scum's informational advantage, this is one methodology we can utilize to force them to give up some information. The more they participate, the more effort they have to put in to look like a townie, the more evidence we get, and the more useful it is.


In light of this discussion, I'm more inclined to believe a lot of the differences between us are primarily differences in strategy and/or experience, and not so much a difference in motivation. So, I'm reasonably satisfied at this time to remove my vote from you an examine someone else.

Unvote hotflungwok

[Blaster Master]

Oh it was totally a smudge, and implied exactly what you thought it did. I almost ended that post with a vote for you, but decided I would rather see how you reacted to my post before I laid down a vote. As of now I am thinking no to voting for you.

I have a short list of people who I think are prime candidates for early drafting attempts into the mob and you are on it BlaM. Take it as a sign of respect. You are a dagnerous fella when you are scum, so I am watching you and a few others with special interest.
Fair enough. Just as I'm going to call out smudges against me, as they can be useful tools for scum. I suppose I will take that as a sign of respect, thanks. :cool:

Anyway, yes, if the scum are looking for an experienced player, there's a reasonably short list of people that would likely be on their list, and I'm aware I'm a likely candidate if that's there strategy. I'd also conceed that is a likely strategy. OTOH, it again introduces a WIFOM situation, like with Pleonast's lurker recruitment idea. In fact, I was in a similar situation before in the Pirate game, where I was left alive specifically as cover Gadarene. That is, even if they are following that strategy, and even if I am the obvious choice, it doesn't necessarily mean anything.

OTOH, the discussion of these potential strategies will be very useful for future reference after we've lynched a scum or two, because perhaps we'll be able to determine a pattern.

Now that we have gotten that out of the way, can we talk a bit more about the right time to role claim in a game like this? If, for example, the vig had accidentally outed themselves toDay, would it be prudent to role claim rather than risk getting targeted by the scum. What if a priest did it? Should we have a second priest roleclaiming?

I know talking about power roles is usually verbotten, but I think this game has to be played differently. I also think (after running You-Solve-It) that the risk of open strategy discussion is negated by the reward of more solid teamwork and better shared information. That being said, let's try to keep the talk abstract and numbers driven. I don't want anyone to actually risk outing themselves.
FWIW, I didn't get the opportunity to follow the You-Solve-It game, but I can certainly find several scenarios in previous games that apply. Hence, this specifically is the other reason why discussing these strategies is important. With a few exceptions (like the identity of certain power roles), the situation is almost always to the benefit of the town to maximize information. Thus, discussing strategies and ideas openly is helpful because, ultimately, if everything is known, the game is won by the town, so approaching this is obviously our best option.

As for discussing power roles, I no issue with discussing potential strategies, or even, as it may arise, parituclar tells. I run under the assumption that the scum are at least as smart as I am, thus anything I notice, they're likely to notice as well. Meanwhile, a particular person in a particular role may or may not see the same thing. Thus, by discussing a power role's strategy, we're really not telling the scum anything more than they probably already know, but may help the person who actually has that role.

[Blaster Master]

NETA: NAF, in the interest of sharing information and strategy openly, do you care to share your "short list". I'm interested in seeing who else has the same level of respect from you that I do, and why I haven't observed you go after them. Since I was primarily responding to your logic and not your back pedaling, I don't think I made it clear sufficiently clear that I find your action, and your explanation very suspicious.

You admit that it was a smudge, and that it meant what I thought it meant. But say I hadn't called you on it... what then? You would have been left with a clear example of a misrepresentation of another player and a smudge.

What about my reaction made you change your mind about voting for me? From my perspective, it looks like you got caught with your hand in the cookie jar and then a quick attempt to cover up with strategy talk.

And I'll state plainly, my vote very well may land on you if I don't find your "short list" and your explanation of whatever you expected my reaction to be sufficient. :D

[NAF1138]

Fair enough. Just as I'm going to call out smudges against me, as they can be useful tools for scum. I suppose I will take that as a sign of respect, thanks. :cool:

Anyway, yes, if the scum are looking for an experienced player, there's a reasonably short list of people that would likely be on their list, and I'm aware I'm a likely candidate if that's there strategy. I'd also conceed that is a likely strategy. OTOH, it again introduces a WIFOM situation, like with Pleonast's lurker recruitment idea. In fact, I was in a similar situation before in the Pirate game, where I was left alive specifically as cover Gadarene. That is, even if they are following that strategy, and even if I am the obvious choice, it doesn't necessarily mean anything.

I remember, when we did that. It was one of our smarter moves I think. But you are right, it doesn't necessarily mean anything and I think trying to get THAT far into the scum's heads will only get us into trouble. There are too many possibilities and variables to consider and not enough information on our end. But it doesn't hurt to try and see what the big catagories of choice are, and work our way towards more solid evidence from there.

(does any of the above make sense. It's clear in my head, but I don't think I am writting it down very well)

OTOH, the discussion of these potential strategies will be very useful for future reference after we've lynched a scum or two, because perhaps we'll be able to determine a pattern.


FWIW, I didn't get the opportunity to follow the You-Solve-It game, but I can certainly find several scenarios in previous games that apply. Hence, this specifically is the other reason why discussing these strategies is important. With a few exceptions (like the identity of certain power roles), the situation is almost always to the benefit of the town to maximize information. Thus, discussing strategies and ideas openly is helpful because, ultimately, if everything is known, the game is won by the town, so approaching this is obviously our best option.

As for discussing power roles, I no issue with discussing potential strategies, or even, as it may arise, parituclar tells. I run under the assumption that the scum are at least as smart as I am, thus anything I notice, they're likely to notice as well. Meanwhile, a particular person in a particular role may or may not see the same thing. Thus, by discussing a power role's strategy, we're really not telling the scum anything more than they probably already know, but may help the person who actually has that role.


Good, then we are in agreement on this point. What does everyone else think?

[NAF1138]

NETA: NAF, in the interest of sharing information and strategy openly, do you care to share your "short list". I'm interested in seeing who else has the same level of respect from you that I do, and why I haven't observed you go after them. Since I was primarily responding to your logic and not your back pedaling, I don't think I made it clear sufficiently clear that I find your action, and your explanation very suspicious.

You admit that it was a smudge, and that it meant what I thought it meant. But say I hadn't called you on it... what then? You would have been left with a clear example of a misrepresentation of another player and a smudge.

What about my reaction made you change your mind about voting for me? From my perspective, it looks like you got caught with your hand in the cookie jar and then a quick attempt to cover up with strategy talk.

And I'll state plainly, my vote very well may land on you if I don't find your "short list" and your explanation of whatever you expected my reaction to be sufficient. :D


Meh, vote away. I am not sure that sharing the short list is a good idea at this point. Pleo was on it, but if he is a priest he is unrecruitable, and if he isn't we can deal with that later. I want to see things play out a little longer today.

As to the rest...

I do not feel that it was a misrepresentation, just that it was a smudge. They are different. I made some implications with the intention of getting a reaction from you. I wanted to see what you would do if I brought up your behavior yesterDay. I figured that if I pushed a button or two I you would give more infomation than if I had just called you on what I saw as a contradiction. You did, and I am fairly certain that your reaction was a townie one. Lots of logic and just a little OMGUS, in about the right proportion. I could be wrong, but it makes me feel a bit better about you.

I did similar things to other folks yesterDay, but they ignored me (maybe I wasn't subtle enough) so, I moved on. For now. You are also only a for now. Sad fact of this game.

[Blaster Master]

Meh, vote away.
Okay, I will.

Vote NAF1138

I am not sure that sharing the short list is a good idea at this point. Pleo was on it, but if he is a priest he is unrecruitable, and if he isn't we can deal with that later. I want to see things play out a little longer today.

Can you provide some reasoning here? For instance, certainly if Pleonast is on that list, and I am, wouldn't someone like, say, YOU be on that list?

Surely, anyone else who feels he's reasonably experienced would expect to be on that list, so they could already reasonably expect to be prodded by you; thus, any bit of "surprise" you might have gained by not providing their name is virtually gone by the very mention of a list.

Further, there does seem to be an apparent contradiction between you having stated you think we should discuss strategies openly, but here you are using a particular strategy and witholding information about it.


As to the rest...

I do not feel that it was a misrepresentation, just that it was a smudge. They are different. I made some implications with the intention of getting a reaction from you. I wanted to see what you would do if I brought up your behavior yesterDay. I figured that if I pushed a button or two I you would give more infomation than if I had just called you on what I saw as a contradiction. You did, and I am fairly certain that your reaction was a townie one. Lots of logic and just a little OMGUS, in about the right proportion. I could be wrong, but it makes me feel a bit better about you.
Explain to me exactly how this is not a misrepresentation. You specifically accused me of not analyzing hotflungwok's motivations and implied that my vote for hotflungwok was reasoned around him bandwagon jumping. By that point, and certainly by now in the posts prior to my unvoting him, I had made it clear that it was jumping on bandwagon alone is a null tell, but doing so without providing any reason potentially has anti-town motivation AND I provided my reasoning for why I saw that motivation behind it.

Further, you accused me of not being as level headed and, if my apparent contradiction exists, as you imply, you ought to be able to point out a post from Yesterday and one from Today that demonstrates that contradiction.

Again, you say you're fairly certain my reaction is a townie one, but... what about it is townie? What if I hadn't called you on it? What if someone else said called you out saying that wasn't why I voted for hotflungwok Yesterday?

I just can't buy what you're selling

I did similar things to other folks yesterDay, but they ignored me (maybe I wasn't subtle enough) so, I moved on. For now. You are also only a for now. Sad fact of this game.
Can you point out an example? I didn't notice it either.

[NAF1138]

Can you provide some reasoning here? For instance, certainly if Pleonast is on that list, and I am, wouldn't someone like, say, YOU be on that list?

Surely, anyone else who feels he's reasonably experienced would expect to be on that list, so they could already reasonably expect to be prodded by you; thus, any bit of "surprise" you might have gained by not providing their name is virtually gone by the very mention of a list.

You make good sense here acutally. It just makes me uncomforable to say anything along the line of "well if I were the scum, I this is how I think I would play so I could win" It just feels very wrong. Also, I am not opposed to talking more about this subject later on this Day even, but at the moment we seem to be monopolizing the conversation and I really would like to hear what other people have to say.



Further, there does seem to be an apparent contradiction between you having stated you think we should discuss strategies openly, but here you are using a particular strategy and witholding information about it.

I disagree. It seems to be a contradiction, but there is a difference between saying we should share more than we have in the past, and just giving everything away.



Explain to me exactly how this is not a misrepresentation. You specifically accused me of not analyzing hotflungwok's motivations and implied that my vote for hotflungwok was reasoned around him bandwagon jumping. By that point, and certainly by now in the posts prior to my unvoting him, I had made it clear that it was jumping on bandwagon alone is a null tell, but doing so without providing any reason potentially has anti-town motivation AND I provided my reasoning for why I saw that motivation behind it.

Here is where we run into a problem. It is a more slippery thing than that. First off, it had to do a little with who you accused and why, secondly I think if you actually examine the motivations behind what he was saying you will come to a totally different conclusion about him. (and seem to have since you unvoted him)

Further, you accused me of not being as level headed and, if my apparent contradiction exists, as you imply, you ought to be able to point out a post from Yesterday and one from Today that demonstrates that contradiction.

Again, you say you're fairly certain my reaction is a townie one, but... what about it is townie? What if I hadn't called you on it? What if someone else said called you out saying that wasn't why I voted for hotflungwok Yesterday?

The question isn't what about this is townie, the question is, what about this isn't townie, and what do the scum stand to gain? The not being level headed bit is more about seeing what you would do with it. The contradiction was in your attitude towards Cap vs. your attitude towards hotflungwok.

I just can't buy what you're selling

You don't have to.


Can you point out an example? I didn't notice it either.

I did more or less the same thing to Freudian slit and HNC for more or less the same reasons in a much more blunt fashion.

[bufftabby]

As I stated yesterday, defensiveness is NOT a scum tell; in fact, more often than not, over defensiveness tends to be a townie tell, particularly a vanilla townie. You HAVE to look at it from a motivation perspective. Obviously, a scum doesn't want to get lynched, it's bad, so he obviously has motivation to be defensive. Similarly, a townie, particularly a vanilla townie, CANNOT defend himself, because his claim is worthless, he has no information, and it get's frustrating and can lead to a flaired temper. Clearly, the motivation for such behavior is pretty darn close to zero, if not favoring town.

In fact, IME, I've only ever seen a hyper-defensive response from scum once, and that was only after he had gone completely bonkers as a townie in the previous game (this is a direct reference to Idle Thoughts :p ). The continued justification of votes for CapnPitt using this, especially AFTER I made my post explaining that it was a null tell without a counter-explaination of why you, specifically, don't see it as a null tell is, at best, specious reasoning, and at worst, anti-town motivated.
<Snip>

You know, I can't change what my justification for something was in the past. I acknowledged that I was wrong. I don't mean just about the lynch itself, but the reasoning behind it. I agree with everything you said about considering motivations in a different light, in your post immediately before the one I've quoted. I'm occasionally not very smart, but I'm already grokking what you're telling me to grok. I'm gonna try to do better this time.

[dotchan]

While I do admit that I may be tunnel visioning myself into suspecting Mennochio, he's still my biggest suspect, so vote Mennochio

Also, minor FoS hotflungwok for that whole vigilante thing. It does feel more like a slip a newbie townie would make, but it is a tiny tick against him.

[Drain Bead]

I think Pleonast is lying. Coming out that early with that narrow a lead in the vote was a foolish move for town. Especially a priest (the most convenient role for a scum to assume by far since he can't be contradicted by a real priest and would be considered unrecruitable), who's primary importance is that he could baffle attempts to recruit him. Now, if Pleo is telling the truth, they know to recruit elsewhere. Pleo said he wanted to stop the town from talking about us all Day? Yeah, that worked well for him. I think he's smarter than that.

But, I could be wrong. A night kill would at least give Pleo a chance to throw out his prayer and I'm still not convinced the vigilante is anything but a liability for the Town.

Okay. I'm new in this game, so I've missed a lot of what happened, but this post sort of jumped out at me. Menocchio said "Pleo said he wanted to stop the town from talking about us all Day," but what is this us? Pleo just wanted the town to stop talking about HIM and move on--he didn't say anything about anyone else.

And that's pretty much all I can think of to say at this point.

[Menocchio]

Okay. I'm new in this game, so I've missed a lot of what happened, but this post sort of jumped out at me. Menocchio said "Pleo said he wanted to stop the town from talking about us all Day," but what is this us? Pleo just wanted the town to stop talking about HIM and move on--he didn't say anything about anyone else.

And that's pretty much all I can think of to say at this point.
I explained that earlier. I misspoke. I meant to say "him".

[fluiddruid]

Pleonast (1) - Darth Sensitive
NAF1138 (1) - Blaster Master
Menocchio (1) - dotchan
hotflungwok (0) - (Blaster Master)

[Menocchio]

I definitely have my eyes on NAF today, and on subsequent days. As I said, I severly doubt he was scum Yesterday, but Today? Not only is he a veteran and thus a prized get for the mob, but his leadership in getting the Capn lynched would seem a neat prize too.

I'm not casting a vote or even a FoS, I'm just saying investigators... Check out those guys, if you'd be so kind.

[hotflungwok]

In light of this discussion, I'm more inclined to believe a lot of the differences between us are primarily differences in strategy and/or experience, and not so much a difference in motivation.
I can agree with this.

Unvote hotflungwok
And this.

[Blaster Master]

You make good sense here acutally. It just makes me uncomforable to say anything along the line of "well if I were the scum, I this is how I think I would play so I could win" It just feels very wrong. Also, I am not opposed to talking more about this subject later on this Day even, but at the moment we seem to be monopolizing the conversation and I really would like to hear what other people have to say.

I don't think that saying "if I were scum, this is how I think I would play" is necessarily a bad thing, but I can understand reservations about it. Remember, I play on the assumption that the scum are as smart or smarter than me, so making any sort of statement about how scum should play is likely not giving them information. In the off case that it IS a new stategy, they're then faced with a WIFOM situation of using the superior strategy, knowing we're aware of it, versus using an alternate. IOW, while it intuitively seems to be helping the scum, I just cannot logically justify that it is. But, fair enough, I'm happy to bug you about it again later.

I disagree. It seems to be a contradiction, but there is a difference between saying we should share more than we have in the past, and just giving everything away.

To retouch on the point from above, and reiterate one of my primary points in the game, sharing information is generally to the town's advantage because we have a disadvantage in information, so anything will help UNLESS it happens to be information the scum don't have like the identity of a power role. Now, there may be other exceptions, but I really think that unless one can come up with a good reason not to share the information, chances are it's to our advantage that you do. Hence, why I asked what you perceived the advantage of withholding such a list may be. And if, perchance, you said you couldn't reveal why until such a time, I could live with that, but I'd expect it to either be patently obvious, or come with such an explanation upon it's revelation.

Here is where we run into a problem. It is a more slippery thing than that. First off, it had to do a little with who you accused and why, secondly I think if you actually examine the motivations behind what he was saying you will come to a totally different conclusion about him. (and seem to have since you unvoted him)

But that's the point, I DID examine his motivations. I found his voting without providing reasoning to be more consistent with a motivation to without information and/or provide wiggle room later rather than a motivation of simply agreeing that that candidate was the most scummy. Upon further discussion with him, he clarified that point, as well as explained his reasoning. And while I did find his reasoning flawed, the motivation behind the reasoning appeared to be pro-town, so I felt comfortable enough unvoting him and investigating another person.

The question isn't what about this is townie, the question is, what about this isn't townie, and what do the scum stand to gain? The not being level headed bit is more about seeing what you would do with it. The contradiction was in your attitude towards Cap vs. your attitude towards hotflungwok.

Funny, you seem to be behaving this way, except with the targets reversed. I provided my reasoning for why I felt CapnPitt's motivation was likely pro-town, you and I discussed this directly yesterday. But here, my attitude did not change, I found what appeared to be anti-town motivation. Instead of attacking my reasoning behind that motivation, through ad hominem attacks at me with smudges and such.

So I have to ask you, prior to my discussion with hotflungwok, did you really think I was off my rocker? Do you not find unreasoned votes suspicious, particularly two Days in a row? Even if you don't, can you not at least see how someone else might find that suspicious? How about the talk of the Vigilante. Attacking me personally, making vague statements about my attitude, my level-headedness, so on are baseless smudges. If you disagree with me, back it up, attack my reasoning.

All I'm seeing here are false generalizations about my behavior or my reasoning. I can only imagine a couple reasons why these generalizations aren't backed up. One option is that you're incorrect, which is entirely possible, but surely upon looking back you'd realize that; this has not occurred. Another is that you just haven't gotten around to it yet, this is possible, but seems somewhat inconsistent with your previous play, but also means you would eventually do so. A third option is that you're deliberately making false generalizations such that providing specific cites, would either requite a lack on context, or provide contradictory examples. Thus, barring a support for these generalizations, I just cannot see compelling motivation behind any of those options, except for the third.

I did more or less the same thing to Freudian slit and HNC for more or less the same reasons in a much more blunt fashion.

They seemed less smudgy and more directly suspicious of them than what you did to me. In inclined to believe those were legit, and you were since recruited, but I cannot back that up with anything other than intuition at this time. So fair enough, I'm willing to give you the benefit of that point for now.

[Blaster Master]

I definitely have my eyes on NAF today, and on subsequent days. As I said, I severly doubt he was scum Yesterday, but Today? Not only is he a veteran and thus a prized get for the mob, but his leadership in getting the Capn lynched would seem a neat prize too.

I'm not casting a vote or even a FoS, I'm just saying investigators... Check out those guys, if you'd be so kind.

Another smudge, which is interesting in it's timing during my discussion with him. Would you think the scum would recruit him after leading a bandwagon against Capn? IME, the town tends to be somewhat critical of leading bandwagons, of which NAF was quick to shake off this Morning with the surprise that it built so quickly. You also say "those guys" whom else are you suggesting the investigators check out?

[Darth Sensitive]

Okay. Here's what I said.You complain about my point 2, "I can't think of a single town reason to do that". Well, read my point 1. That's why.* I even prefaced it with "I'm stating this publicly for two reasons" to clue players in as to why.

I had another, unstated, reason for posting my point 2--to force a kind of WIFOM on their recruitment strategy. The Mafia must now consider our suspicions when recruiting. Since they know that we will be scrutinizing lurkers as better recruitment candidates, they have to weigh recruiting a candidate who has short record (but more likely to be watched carefully) versus one who has a long record (and give more evidence when motivation changes).

*I assume that current Townies will want to minimize their chances of recruitment. However, there's a possibility that a Townie could play to encourage their own recruitment. This is especially true if we get to a point when the Town is not doing so well. Personally, I think it's bad form to try to switch sides, but unfortunately, the rules allow it.

Ok. That makes more sense. I was kinda stuck on you as scum, so it self reinforced. At the time, I thought you were playing sloppy - behind by one in the vote, and trying to get advice out before dying, which didn't make much sense to me, as you weren't going to be lynched. But I see what you're saying - we don't want lurkers cause they hurt us.

Unvote: Pleonast

[NAF1138]

WARNING: This is going to be long because I am trying to be as complete in my response as possible. I expect BlaM to read it, but if you aren't BlaM do try and read the whole thing. Thanks.

I don't think that saying "if I were scum, this is how I think I would play" is necessarily a bad thing, but I can understand reservations about it. Remember, I play on the assumption that the scum are as smart or smarter than me, so making any sort of statement about how scum should play is likely not giving them information. In the off case that it IS a new stategy, they're then faced with a WIFOM situation of using the superior strategy, knowing we're aware of it, versus using an alternate. IOW, while it intuitively seems to be helping the scum, I just cannot logically justify that it is. But, fair enough, I'm happy to bug you about it again later.

I know you don't think that giving the scum tips (I am calling it giving the scum tips as a short hand, I understand that the concept we are discussing is more complicated than that) is necessarily a bad idea, but if those tips are something that I don't think will actually give the town helpfull information why risk it. So I am not going to just spout out information like that without giving it some thought first.

That being said, I will be more than happy to share said list of people I am watching to see if they get recruited, I just want to wait till it is closer to the end of the Day. I don't see any benefit to having this back and forth between you and myself continuing if no one else is going to get involved.



To retouch on the point from above, and reiterate one of my primary points in the game, sharing information is generally to the town's advantage because we have a disadvantage in information, so anything will help UNLESS it happens to be information the scum don't have like the identity of a power role. Now, there may be other exceptions, but I really think that unless one can come up with a good reason not to share the information, chances are it's to our advantage that you do. Hence, why I asked what you perceived the advantage of withholding such a list may be. And if, perchance, you said you couldn't reveal why until such a time, I could live with that, but I'd expect it to either be patently obvious, or come with such an explanation upon it's revelation.

I just feel like this is a little bit of a black and white attitude. I am more of a shades of grey guy.



But that's the point, I DID examine his motivations. I found his voting without providing reasoning to be more consistent with a motivation to without information and/or provide wiggle room later rather than a motivation of simply agreeing that that candidate was the most scummy. Upon further discussion with him, he clarified that point, as well as explained his reasoning. And while I did find his reasoning flawed, the motivation behind the reasoning appeared to be pro-town, so I felt comfortable enough unvoting him and investigating another person.

I realized in my last post to you that you are right, you did examine the motivations...I just think you are looking at them the wrong way. You are looking at how will this help the town, not how will this help the scum. Or maybe you think you are looking at both, I can't really be sure...but I don't see any benefit to the scum in hotflungwok's actions. I did see benefit to the scum in Capn's actions. This answers your next point too I think, so I will leave it in, but not repeat myself.


Funny, you seem to be behaving this way, except with the targets reversed. I provided my reasoning for why I felt CapnPitt's motivation was likely pro-town, you and I discussed this directly yesterday. But here, my attitude did not change, I found what appeared to be anti-town motivation. Instead of attacking my reasoning behind that motivation, through ad hominem attacks at me with smudges and such.

Actually, I will add one thing. You are grossely exagerating what I said. It wasn't an ad hominim attack, it wasn't even an attack. It was a gentle nudge. If you are going to assume that the scum are as smart as you, and if you think I am playing as scum today, give me the credit that I wouldn't make such a clumsy attack. Again, what's the motivation?

So I have to ask you, prior to my discussion with hotflungwok, did you really think I was off my rocker? Do you not find unreasoned votes suspicious, particularly two Days in a row? Even if you don't, can you not at least see how someone else might find that suspicious? How about the talk of the Vigilante. Attacking me personally, making vague statements about my attitude, my level-headedness, so on are baseless smudges. If you disagree with me, back it up, attack my reasoning.

I think I have addressed this, but let me know if you are still unclear, I will be happy to briefly go over it again.

All I'm seeing here are false generalizations about my behavior or my reasoning.

Where are these false generalizations? Point them out and I will make them less general.


I can only imagine a couple reasons why these generalizations aren't backed up. One option is that you're incorrect, which is entirely possible, but surely upon looking back you'd realize that; this has not occurred. Another is that you just haven't gotten around to it yet, this is possible, but seems somewhat inconsistent with your previous play, but also means you would eventually do so. A third option is that you're deliberately making false generalizations such that providing specific cites, would either requite a lack on context, or provide contradictory examples. Thus, barring a support for these generalizations, I just cannot see compelling motivation behind any of those options, except for the third.

This paragraph baffles me, it's like we are having two totally different conversations. You are acting as though I am attacking you repeatedly. I made one intentionally inflamatory remark to see how you reacted, because I found your reasoning to be flawed and possibly suspect. Everything I have said after that has been an explination of my thought process. Am I really being that unclear? If I am, again, you are going to have to bring up more specific examples so I can address them more specifically.


They seemed less smudgy and more directly suspicious of them than what you did to me. In inclined to believe those were legit, and you were since recruited, but I cannot back that up with anything other than intuition at this time. So fair enough, I'm willing to give you the benefit of that point for now.

Well like I said, I was a bit blunt with them. Look over all my posts from Day 2 and you will see that this is a strategy I have been working with through the whole game up until this point. Read my posts about what happened Night 1 which were all an attempt to get a scum player to make comments on the Night action. You aren't special BlaM, you are just the first person to notice.

Now, if I may...unless some other people want to join in on this, I think this back and forth between us is a distraction to the town at best. I am happy to answer specific points that you want to bring up, I won't tell you to not talk about me if you really feel you want to, but I don't see how the two of us dominating the conversation for the rest of the Day helps the town. That's not a smudge, because I don't think you were recruited yet, that's just a reminder not to get all tunnel visioned on me.

We need everyone to talk a lot, so that when/if they get recuited we will know the difference, and right now I think the two of us are drowing out the rest of the conversation.

[Menocchio]

Another smudge, which is interesting in it's timing during my discussion with him. Would you think the scum would recruit him after leading a bandwagon against Capn? IME, the town tends to be somewhat critical of leading bandwagons, of which NAF was quick to shake off this Morning with the surprise that it built so quickly. You also say "those guys" whom else are you suggesting the investigators check out?
Other veterans. Other leaders. It's becoming clear that some people are more influential than others, and while they may be innocent now, they may not be later.

[NAF1138]

Total posts made to the game thread:

Blaster Master 51
NAF1138 45
Menocchio 40
Santo Rugger 40
bufftabby 39
Hawkeyeop 39
HazelNutCoffee 37
Pleonast 34
Darth Sensitive 29
Freudian Slit 29
hotflungwok 27
chrisk 26
Koldanar 25
Diomedes 24
sinjin 23
Hockey Monkey 23
OneCentStamp 22
Hal Briston 21
Millit the Frail 21
MHaye 13
dotchan 9
Drain Bead 4 (subbed in toDay)

Bolded players have posted toDay, non bolded players have yet to post.


No conclusions, just information. And please, if I missed seeing you post toDay, let me know.

I would like to say...neither BlaM or myself posted Day 1, neither of us can really post durring the weekends or evenings...admittadly we are doing a bit of overposting at the moment, but it is kind of shocking that we are the post count leaders. Those people at the bottome of the list, we REALLY need you to post more. Dot, MHaye we especially need the two of you to post more.

We don't need fluff, but we do need you to get more from you.

[Drain Bead]

NAF, just so you know (you probably do) but making lists like that was something I did when I was scum to try to look like "helpful townie" without posting anything of actual substance.

[dotchan]

My post (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9551241&postcount=735)

[Pleonast]

NAF, just so you know (you probably do) but making lists like that was something I did when I was scum to try to look like "helpful townie" without posting anything of actual substance.Whatever NAF's reason for posting, it is helpful to the Town.

Note to all: next week I'll be on travel. I think I'll have internet access, but I'm likely to have limited time.

[NAF1138]

NAF, just so you know (you probably do) but making lists like that was something I did when I was scum to try to look like "helpful townie" without posting anything of actual substance.

So ignore the list, I am trying to draw attention to the fact that people aren't posting nearly enough. Strip out the pregame and Night posts and there are several people who have posted to the game less than 15 times in 3 Days. That really just isn't good enough if the town is going to win this thing.

(sorry for missing your post Dot, fluid could you bold her name in my previous post or is it enough that we are talking about it? But it doesn't change the fact that you REALLY need to post a whole heck of a lot more.)