Baseball Thread May 2008 [Archive] - Straight Dope Message Board

mhendo

05-01-2008, 11:12 AM

This continues the conversation in the April thread.Tigers are slowly crawling back into the hunt. Two steps forward ,one back. They just can not get a streak going. It can not bee due to crappy starting pitching. There must be another explanation.Well, if a step equals a win, the this is exactly what the Tigers are doing, and exactly what a Tigers fan should want. In that formulation, two steps forward and one step back will give you a record of .667, which will get you into the playoffs every single year.

Since their absolutely horrendous start (2-10), the Tigers are 11-5. The White Sox are unlikely to remain at the head of the division, and i'll bet the Tigers reel them in within the next month.

As for why they're not doing even better, i think it's precisely due to crappy pitching. Check out MLB's team pitching (http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?c_id=mlb&baseballScope=mlb&statType=2&sitSplit=&timeSubFrame=2008&groupByTeam=true&Submit=Submit&timeFrame=1&c_id=mlb&section1=null&statSet1=null&groupByTeam=true&statType=1&sortByStat=R&timeFrame=1&timeSubFrame=2008&timeSubFrame=2008&timeSubFrame=2008&timeSubFrame=2008&baseballScope=mlb&prevPage1=1&readBoxes=true&Submit=Submit&sitSplit=&checkBoxTotal=0) stats for the year. The Tigers have given up the third-most runs and the second-most walks in the majors.

And, after their awful start, they're hitting again. Despite the fact that they could barely score a run in the first two weeks, they are now third in runs scored, fifth in home runs, fifth in walks, fourth in OBP, and sixth in SLG. If they continue hitting like that, and get the sort of pitching you expect out of guys like Verlander, they could be almost unstoppable in their division.

Rysto

05-01-2008, 11:14 AM

mazinger_z

05-01-2008, 11:18 AM

I'd like to think that my White Sox could run away with the division starting...um now, but crappy losses against the Twins and the Yankees last week are not keeping my hopes up. Swisher, Cabrerra (I probably spelled that wrong), Thome (at least he's got some HRs), and Konerko are all underperforming. If it weren't for somewhat strong pitching, the WSox would be fading fast like KC.

Sarahfeena

05-01-2008, 11:19 AM

Didn't see the game, but Soto is a damn good young catcher. Yes, he looks like he is going to be a serious asset to the team. Very exciting.

Asimovian

05-01-2008, 11:31 AM

Somehow, the Dodgers managed to finish April with a winning record. Lots of runs scored in the last couple of games. This despite Andruw Jones' continued dismal showing (I believe he's currently batting .159). It makes me really upset to see him get booed at home games because I want him to be encouraged. At the same time, I can't blame the fans' frustration with the one-dimensional center fielder purchases of the last two years.

I wonder what it would take to get Nomar to retire and stay with the Dodgers as a bench coach while Blake DeWitt stays on at third, having Russell Martin spelling him every so often. Have I mentioned how much I like the look of Blake DeWitt?

Anyway, here's to May!

Mullinator

05-01-2008, 11:32 AM

What percent of the population could have correctly guessed that the White Sox, Cardinals, and Marlins would be outright leading or tied for the lead in their division at the beginning of May? Granted, it's not likely to hold for any of them, but it is pretty interesting to see so many teams viewed as potential also-rans doing fairly well.

Also, Smoltz as closer again. That's interesting because the Braves are short of arms pretty much everywhere right now. Granted, injury potential plays a role, but I wonder just how much less valuable his skills are in limited work than they would be every 5 days.

pricciar

05-01-2008, 11:41 AM

It was good to see the Phillies end their first April in a long time with a winning record. I think that bodes well for the team. Especially, since they did it without last year's MVP (Disabled list with a bad ankle, and there is still no sign of when he will return. Which is good, I wouldn't want him to come back early and reinjure it) and with Howard's bat still not quite up to his standards.

Utley has been putting up MVP numbers. I hope he is able to keep that up for the entire season. And, Burrell is making the decision to keep him a little bit tougher than it seemed to be before the season started. I think he is better suited as an American League player at this point in his career. But, he will almost certainly offer a home town discount, so it might be worth considering to keep that bat in the lineup.

I have been happy with Hamels performance, but disappointed with the run production behind him. Everyone knows that the win is an overrated statistic for a pitcher, still I like to see the ace of the staff have a winning record. And, I really had high hopes for him winning 20 this year.

Romero has been good coming out of the bullpen. And, Gordon has been a pleasant surprise after his bad opening day.

pat

Telemark

05-01-2008, 11:54 AM

I love the bottom of the ninth inning heroics by the BoSox, but can we at least get some hits in innings 1-7? Pitching duals however are still fun to watch.

Troy McClure SF

05-01-2008, 01:17 PM

Somehow, the Dodgers managed to finish April with a winning record.
Sht, somehow the Giants managed to finish April with a not-losing-as-bad-as-we-thought-we-would record. I'm happy. :D

Dear Mr. Sabean,

No more people named "Barry."

Love, Troy McClure SF

(I said that to my roommate and he said it's only a matter of time until we dust off Barry Larkin and sign him for three years.)

That said, it has been fun watching these kids like Lewis & Velez. Even if the Giants don't take the division, there's a lot of hope for the future on those basepaths.

Least Original User Name Ever

05-01-2008, 02:14 PM

This continues the conversation in the April thread.Well, if a step equals a win, the this is exactly what the Tigers are doing, and exactly what a Tigers fan should want. In that formulation, two steps forward and one step back will give you a record of .667, which will get you into the playoffs every single year.

Since their absolutely horrendous start (2-10), the Tigers are 11-5. The White Sox are unlikely to remain at the head of the division, and i'll bet the Tigers reel them in within the next month.

As for why they're not doing even better, i think it's precisely due to crappy pitching. Check out MLB's team pitching (http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?c_id=mlb&baseballScope=mlb&statType=2&sitSplit=&timeSubFrame=2008&groupByTeam=true&Submit=Submit&timeFrame=1&c_id=mlb&section1=null&statSet1=null&groupByTeam=true&statType=1&sortByStat=R&timeFrame=1&timeSubFrame=2008&timeSubFrame=2008&timeSubFrame=2008&timeSubFrame=2008&baseballScope=mlb&prevPage1=1&readBoxes=true&Submit=Submit&sitSplit=&checkBoxTotal=0) stats for the year. The Tigers have given up the third-most runs and the second-most walks in the majors.

And, after their awful start, they're hitting again. Despite the fact that they could barely score a run in the first two weeks, they are now third in runs scored, fifth in home runs, fifth in walks, fourth in OBP, and sixth in SLG. If they continue hitting like that, and get the sort of pitching you expect out of guys like Verlander, they could be almost unstoppable in their division.

I completely agree. They did nothing right for the first couple weeks, but they're solidly kicking ass.

RickJay

05-01-2008, 02:38 PM

I love the bottom of the ninth inning heroics by the BoSox, but can we at least get some hits in innings 1-7? Pitching duals however are still fun to watch.
Speak for yourself.

I posted this on another board, on the subject of the Blue Jays, and a strange interview J.P. Ricciardi gave in which he said weird, obviously false things. It pretty much sums up my feelings right now. I've added some parenthetical comments so as to explain the context:

Of course, J.P. Ricciardi knows as well as anyone does that John McDonald is a better fielder than Frodo Eckstein; he's not that stupid. (Note: Ricciardi had stated flat out that Eckstein was as good a fielder as McDonald, which is sort of like saying that Cecil Fielder was faster than Rickey Henderson.) Anyone who's read some scouting reports knows that. He also knows as well as anyone that the ball Rios gave up on - actually, it wasn't so much that he gave up as it is that he shied away from the wall - landed in the first row, not the seventh. (Note: Ricciardi had claimed a David Ortiz home run that Rios didn't catch, despite just barely clearing the three-foot wall in Fenway's right field, had "landed six or seven rows in." It had done nothing of the sort, and quite obviously so.)

Ricciardi is saying the ridiculous nonsense he's saying simply because he's getting very close to losing his job. That's also the reason he won't fire Gibbons. I'm not normally one to criticize managers for in-game tactics - most managers all manage the same way, and most Internet complaining about it is ignorant babbling - but Gibbons has done a terrible job managing his pitching staff lately. The decision to leave Burnett in the game against the Royals was just inexplicable, and the decision to leave Downs in last night was equally bizarre. It's also ridiculous that he won't lift Eckstein for McDonald in the late innings, but I don't know if that's his call.

However, Ricciardi can't fire Gibbons without pushing himself closer to the abyss, because Gibbons is his man. Public admission that his moves have turned out really badly would make it easier/more desirable for the brass to can him, and the likely scenario behind the cameras is that he's already under fire for being in Year 7 of a five-year plan with a team that doesn't look any better than the ones that limped through the last three seasons. Ricciardi has probably already taken a huge amount of flak internally for the release of Thomas - even if it made sense, it calls into question his judgment in giving Thomas a 2-plus-option deal in the first place. The Burnett and Ryan deals turned out badly, the aquisition of Stewart is clearly a mistake, and on and on, and the next landmine's going to be Vernon Wells, who is going to turn out to be a really, really terrible extension.

If you're Ricciardi, you're treading on dangerous ground right now, because he's sitting on a $95 million team that can't hit and is in last place. So he's in uber-defensive mode right now. That's natural; if you're secure in your job it's easy to admit error and suggest corrective action, but if you feel like you're a few inches away from professional doom, you're going to throw up a wall of denial at every opportunity.

So, back to Gibbons; of all the things Ricciardi has done, Gibbons as manager is probably the one most personally connected to Ricciardi. They're friends, and Ricciardi chose him and has stuck with him though mediocrity and embarrassing incidents. It's one thing to have your injury-prone free agent continue getting injured (Burnett) or overpay for a fan favourite who wasn't really all that great (Wells) but those things can be shrugged off as bad luck. If after all this he now drops Gibbons, he's admitting that his entire strategy was flawed at the very core, because Gibbons IS the core, the personal stamp Ricciardi has put on the team. And that would just make it a matter of time before he himself is unemployed. From his perspective, his best hope is to deny anything's wrong and hope the team hits a little better and makes it back into the race.

Asimovian

05-01-2008, 02:43 PM

Sht, somehow the Giants managed to finish April with a not-losing-as-bad-as-we-thought-we-would record. I'm happy. :D

<snip>

That said, it has been fun watching these kids like Lewis & Velez. Even if the Giants don't take the division, there's a lot of hope for the future on those basepaths.You know, I've got to give that to you. They still aren't a *good* team, but every time I look at the standings, the Giants are not where I (or any baseball analyst, apparently) thought they would be. I still haven't quite figured out whether that says something about the Giants, or says that the NL West isn't quite the powerhouse it was supposed to be this year. Time will tell.

Meanwhile, my boys just completed their second straight series sweep. Another solid offensive performance today, and a starting pitcher that got us through seven innings. It's only May...it's only May...

Oh, and Troy? I'll give you...let's see...I've got 32 cents and a Dodger Dog in exchange for Barry Zito right now. I want to propose a piñata night at Dodger Stadium, and I didn't think you'd object. :)

dalej42

05-01-2008, 02:59 PM

[QUOTE=Asimovian]You know, I've got to give that to you. They still aren't a *good* team, but every time I look at the standings, the Giants are not where I (or any baseball analyst, apparently) thought they would be. I still haven't quite figured out whether that says something about the Giants, or says that the NL West isn't quite the powerhouse it was supposed to be this year. Time will tell./QUOTE]

The Diamondbacks played 22 Western division games and won 17 of those. Thus, by beating so many divisional foes, that helped keep the Giants from falling too far below anyone else.

Cheesesteak

05-01-2008, 03:02 PM

Personally I am not happy with the way the Yanks have been playing and all of our injuries. The Yankees are in a weird situation.

The negatives:
- Jeter, Posada, and A-Rod all got injured
- Catcher situation is a joke, with Posada out. They had a decent defensive catcher as a backup, now he's #1 and their backup is either a true minor leaguer, or someone no other team wants at all.
- They had a record number of away games in April
- Giambi and Robinson Cano are both hitting well under .200, when they were expected to be solid contributors. (Giambi is hitting some dingers, so he is at least driving in a few runs)
- The young pitchers we avoided trading for Santana are crapping their diapers, 10 games started, 6 losses 0 wins with about an 8.75 ERA

The pluses:
- Chamberlain and Rivera are lights out, 22 innings pitched, 2 runs
- Wang has been really good
- They're only 3 games back.

I don't know what to think, will these negatives clear up, and we'll see the team bounce back, or will the negatives continue, and finally catch up to them, driving them further behind the Sox?

BTW, I'm kind of pissed that Girardi let Chris Stewart catch Phil Hughes. Yes, let's have the completely inexperienced catcher we just brought up from the minors catch the 21 year old phenom who's really struggling right now.

What Exit?

05-01-2008, 03:09 PM

BTW, I'm kind of pissed that Girardi let Chris Stewart catch Phil Hughes. Yes, let's have the completely inexperienced catcher we just brought up from the minors catch the 21 year old phenom who's really struggling right now.
I have the same complaint, but Hughes has not pitched well with Molina so far. I doubt Girardi had a clue how awful Stewart is. I am glad he is already gone.

I'm glad Darrell Rasner is coming up, he has been lights out in Scranton and if he stays healthy should be servicible as our 5 guy. I've liked him in the past, but he has been a hard luck pitcher with freak injuries.

This year he is 4-0 with a .87 ERA and 31IP in 5 games for over 6 per. He has a 27K/6BB ratio. No homers and no HBP.

dalej42

05-02-2008, 07:36 AM

I was driving home from work yesterday listening to the Brewers/Cubs game on xm radio. Got to the store at the top of the ninth inning. Guess I picked the wrong time to go grocery shopping!

That was just a bad game to choke away. If you're playing a divisional rival, you've got to keep your lead in the last inning.

John DiFool

05-02-2008, 09:23 AM

I absolutely cannot get a handle of this season so far at this point. All of the teams which were in the playoffs last year appear very underwhelming this year, opening the door perhaps to a sea-change in the established AL order.

My Red Sox are as maddeningly puzzling as ever. First the pitching staff starts uncharacteristically walking everyone in sight, then the offense wakes up for a dozen games and scores oodles of run, only to completely die for the last 6 games at the exact same time that the starters all throw some real gems. I don't know if all the veteran hitters on this team all got old at once, or what; in all I really have no idea how good they are going to be for the rest of the year.

The Yankees have exactly two people in their rotation that they can count on. Their offense also appears to be aging badly, with two of their best hitters on the DL. Yeah I thought they were toast last year after that 22-31 start, but one year they won't be able to rally themselves out of an early funk.

The Indians and Tigers have both been very underwhelming, but have managed to get within 1.5 of the division lead despite their indifferent play.

The Angels are 18-12 yes, but their opponent's OPS is 12 points higher than their offense's.

It may be that the small market Rays win the East, and the White Sox, Tigers, and Indians all fight it out for the Central, while Billy Beane's s*** works once again in the West after yet another fire sale.

dalej42

05-02-2008, 09:49 AM

I absolutely cannot get a handle of this season so far at this point. All of the teams which were in the playoffs last year appear very underwhelming this year, opening the door perhaps to a sea-change in the established AL order.

In what way would you say the Arizona Diamondbacks have been underwhelming? Or, are you only talking about the American League?

ZipperJJ

05-02-2008, 10:52 AM

Seems like when Jamey Carrol and Asdrubal Cabrera are in the Tribe lineup, the Indians win. Wednesday, they both started and we won a solid game. Last night, Asdrubal was in and then Jamey came in as a pinch runner in the late innings and we ended up winning.

Just sayin'...

Also, we only play the Yanks 7 times this year. The last 3 games against them are next week. We totally luck out if all their dudes are still on the DL. Yay!

John DiFool

05-02-2008, 01:29 PM

In what way would you say the Arizona Diamondbacks have been underwhelming? Or, are you only talking about the American League?

Yes. I was going to be late for an appointment so I didn't have time to discuss them. My short summary of the Senior League is that it will still likely be the Mets, Phils, and maybe the Braves in the East, but none of them excite me much at all, the Cubs may have finally put together a pennant-winning-quality squad (i.e. not one which meekly bows out in the first round even if they make the playoffs), and the D-Backs are oozing young talent out their wazoo. It's been awhile since a young team has had almost all their kids develop like mad at once (mid 80's Mets? But they had a goodly number of vets too)-only happens once every 30 years or so but is wondrous when it does.

dalej42

05-02-2008, 01:52 PM

Kerrigan

05-02-2008, 03:06 PM

The Rangers are undefeated this month.

A whopping two of our original starting pitchers for the season are still in the rotation. We've had more injuries, call-ups, and send-downs in a month than... well, it seems like we've done a lot more this year than we did in April 2007.

I guess we should just be happy that now we get a whole season to evaluate our young talent! (And everybody else's, in preparation for trades...)

ShibbOleth

05-02-2008, 03:17 PM

The Rays just came off their best month ever and started off May with a win over the Orioles who also had a very good April. It will be interesting to see how the Boston series goes this weekend.

I've tried to become a Rays fan, since I live here, but they've generally sucked as bad as sucking can go. Now it's like a miracle: they've found pitching, defense, relief and hitting all at the same time. The big question is can it last? I hope it can for a while at least, since I'd really like my son to become a fan of our hometown team, even if they'll never be able to compete with the Yankees, Sox or Orioles in terms of salary.

mhendo

05-02-2008, 03:36 PM

I hope it can for a while at least, since I'd really like my son to become a fan of our hometown team, even if they'll never be able to compete with the Yankees, Sox or Orioles in terms of salary.Orioles?

While i understand that Tampa is a low-budget team, the Orioles aren't exactly a financial powerhouse, with a 2008 payroll in the bottom third of all major league teams. Putting them in the same category as the Yankees and Red Sox is a bit of a stretch.

What Exit?

05-02-2008, 03:58 PM

Orioles?

While i understand that Tampa is a low-budget team, the Orioles aren't exactly a financial powerhouse, with a 2008 payroll in the bottom third of all major league teams. Putting them in the same category as the Yankees and Red Sox is a bit of a stretch.
Don't make excuses. Baltimore use to compete with the other two. As recently as 1998 their payroll was near the top with Yanks, Red Sox, Dodgers and Braves. The O's owner has mismanaged his team and ruined a great money maker. At least for a while.

That Baltimore has chosen not to spend does not mean it cannot. Tampa cannot spend.

Jim

Cluricaun

05-02-2008, 04:03 PM

The Cubbies managed to slip out of first place yesterday thanks to the runs given up by Kerry Wood in the 9th inning, but tonight we begin the real series......second place Cubs against first place Cards. There will be blood........

ETA- Geo Soto is shaping up to be one more of the increadible players coming from our farm system. The kid has lots of good things going for him.

mhendo

05-02-2008, 04:19 PM

Don't make excuses. Baltimore use to compete with the other two. As recently as 1998 their payroll was near the top with Yanks, Red Sox, Dodgers and Braves. The O's owner has mismanaged his team and ruined a great money maker. At least for a while.

That Baltimore has chosen not to spend does not mean it cannot. Tampa cannot spend.

JimHuh?

What excuses am i making?

The fact that Peter Angelos is a giant asshole and refuses to spend money on the team is incidental. Whether the lack of money is due to lack of means (Tampa) or lack of will (Baltimore), the consequences are the same for the people trying to put together a team.

If you enter the baseball market with a limit of about $70 million to spend on a team (about what Baltimore is spending this year), then the team you build is restricted by that amount of money. It doesn't matter whether the restrictions on the amount are arbitrary or not.

Look at it this way: if i hire you to run my baseball team, and tell you that you've got to build a team on $70 million dollars, what difference does it make to you, as the person looking for talent, whether i actually have more than $70 million in the bank or not? If i have $150 million, and only give you $70 million, it might make me an asshole, but it doesn't change the challenges you face in trying to construct a team.

The fact is that, for whatever reason, Baltimore is a $67 million team, and Boston and New York are $130+ million teams. As long as this situation persists, it's silly to compare Baltimore with those teams just because the owner is a selfish asshole who mismanages the team and keeps as much money as possible for himself.

ZipperJJ

05-02-2008, 04:30 PM

Just curious, anyone know a way to find out exactly which Fox game my local area is going to get in advance? I know there are web sites which show the NFL games a local area will get and they're usually updated by Wednesday of that week.

It's kind of clunky, but if you go here (http://msn.foxsports.com/tv/schedule) on the Fox sports site and choose your provider, choose a date and then choose your sport, you can see what is playing on your local network (only if your local network has a game for the day chosen will it be in the dropdown).

I was able to see that WJW in Cleveland is showing the Cubs/Cardinals on May 3.

Does that help?

What Exit?

05-02-2008, 05:18 PM

Huh?

What excuses am i making?

The fact that Peter Angelos is a giant asshole and refuses to spend money on the team is incidental. Whether the lack of money is due to lack of means (Tampa) or lack of will (Baltimore), the consequences are the same for the people trying to put together a team.

If you enter the baseball market with a limit of about $70 million to spend on a team (about what Baltimore is spending this year), then the team you build is restricted by that amount of money. It doesn't matter whether the restrictions on the amount are arbitrary or not.

Look at it this way: if i hire you to run my baseball team, and tell you that you've got to build a team on $70 million dollars, what difference does it make to you, as the person looking for talent, whether i actually have more than $70 million in the bank or not? If i have $150 million, and only give you $70 million, it might make me an asshole, but it doesn't change the challenges you face in trying to construct a team.

The fact is that, for whatever reason, Baltimore is a $67 million team, and Boston and New York are $130+ million teams. As long as this situation persists, it's silly to compare Baltimore with those teams just because the owner is a selfish asshole who mismanages the team and keeps as much money as possible for himself.
OK, that is fair. I thought you were being another dumb O's fan claiming your team was a small market team. I have gotten sick of hearing it and made assumptions I should not have about your post.

mhendo

05-02-2008, 05:37 PM

OK, that is fair. I thought you were being another dumb O's fan claiming your team was a small market team. I have gotten sick of hearing it and made assumptions I should not have about your post.Well, if it makes you feel any better, most Orioles fans i know are well aware of where the blame lies for the ongoing shittiness of the team, and none of them blame it on a "small market."

Like me, many of them were pissed when MLB handed Angelos a big wad of cash and control of the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network in compensation for bringing the Nationals into "his" media market. They should have told him to go screw himself. The metro DC-Baltimore area is plenty big enough to support two teams, and if he put together a decent team, he might get more than 10,000 people on nights when the Red Sox or the Yankees are not in town.

I was there for a Rays game the other night, and while the official attendance was about 11,500, there's no way there were more than about 4,000 people in the ballpark. It's pretty dismal.

Thudlow Boink

05-02-2008, 11:03 PM

Bayard

05-03-2008, 09:30 AM

Whew! What a nail-biter. The Cardinals beat the Cubs in the bottom of the 11th, in the battle for the NL Central. This is turning out to be a very interesting season.

Cubs fans: How do you feel about Alfonso Soriano now?
I wish I coulda seen the game. I had to settle for reading about it this morning and catching a couple of the free highlights on mlb.com. Yikes, Soriano looked bad on that "ground-rule double". I'm worried about the closer situtation now, though. Isringhausen hasn't been sharp, and I dunno who is poised to take his place. McClellan has been good, but is he ready to vault into the closer role after a month in the big leagues? Villone? I'm waiting for the old Ron Villone to return any day now. But, aside from that, the Cards are looking tough. How about Shumaker's hitting lately? Wow. He's not a big guy, but he put a helluva a swing on that homer last night.

DSYoungEsq

05-03-2008, 10:58 AM

Whew! What a nail-biter. The Cardinals beat the Cubs in the bottom of the 11th, in the battle for the NL Central. This is turning out to be a very interesting season.

Cubs fans: How do you feel about Alfonso Soriano now?
Given that the Cubs were only in the 11th inning because of Soriano's home run off Isringhausen, I'm quite happy to have him back!! :D

I WOULD, however, like to get into Piniella's mind and implant the very serious suggestion that he NEVER EVER EVER take Wood out of the bullpen to close a game again. :smack:

Rysto

05-04-2008, 09:33 AM

Holy crap! The Jays won a game in which their pitchers allowed a run!

RickJay

05-04-2008, 02:03 PM

Holy crap! The Jays won a game in which their pitchers allowed a run!
Four more runs today... amazing! Frodo's doing his best to ensure they lose today, 0-for-2 plus a costly error. But Halladay refuses to lose easily.

Honestly, is there a more overrated player in baseball than David Eckstein? Aww, it's so cute that the little short guy's playing in the major leagues. I guess it's just the cynic in me that tends to notice the .248 average and the dreadful fielding.

Thudlow Boink

05-04-2008, 02:26 PM

Four more runs today... amazing! Frodo's doing his best to ensure they lose today, 0-for-2 plus a costly error. But Halladay refuses to lose easily.

Honestly, is there a more overrated player in baseball than David Eckstein? Aww, it's so cute that the little short guy's playing in the major leagues. I guess it's just the cynic in me that tends to notice the .248 average and the dreadful fielding."Frodo"? I always thought he looked more like Stuart Little, myself.

What Exit?

05-04-2008, 03:29 PM

Apparently the Mariners were exactly what the Yankees needed to cure what ailed them.

Three good starts in a row. Kennedy was sent down to find himself and Rasner looked very good. The Yanks will skip the 5 started this week and then call up either Kei Igawa or Steven White (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Steven%20White&pos=P&sid=t531&t=p_pbp&pid=447741).

Southern Yankee

05-04-2008, 03:36 PM

Jim, is there any indication Igawa has gotten himself on track? The bats are coming around, but I'm a little concerned Girardi is going to keep this team too tight.

What Exit?

05-04-2008, 05:21 PM

Jim, is there any indication Igawa has gotten himself on track? The bats are coming around, but I'm a little concerned Girardi is going to keep this team too tight.
I don't think so, but Steven White is a 26 year old prospect with no major league experience and Kei (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Kei%20Igawa&pos=P&sid=t531&t=p_pbp&pid=506432) is actually getting paid real money. So while I would pull up the kid that has better stuff, it is possible that braintrust will mis-fire and pull Kei back up. He does have a good K-BB ration, but he has pitched at least two bad games in AAA this year. White has been good in all but one start and is averaging close to 6 IP per start.

When you get a chance, check out Trenton (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&cid=567). We have three prospects of to great starts: Chase Wright, Daniel McCutchen & Jason Jones.

Southern Yankee

05-04-2008, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by What Exit?
When you get a chance, check out Trenton. We have three prospects of to great starts: Chase Wright, Daniel McCutchen & Jason Jones.

McCutchen's stats are really impressive so far. Jones' SO/W ratio isn't very good but that ERA indicates they either have very good fielding or he gets out of some jams on his own. Good to see some young prospects.

ElvisL1ves

05-04-2008, 08:24 PM

The Red Sox have been putting enough pieces together so far, but the rash of injuries, the minor, annoying ones that keep people from their best for long periods, are worrying me over the long term. They won it all last year largely on the strength of staying healthy - not one position regular spent a day on the DL - but they look like they're going to have to depend on depth this year. Fortunately, they do have the depth they need, and fortunately, it's just about done being cold and rainy in Boston and the minor muscle strains may be done too. We hope.

And that's without discussing the flu epidemic they had a week ago, or Moss' appendectormy today.

Now what is this "National League" thing some of you are referring to? We never hear a word about them here.

RickJay

05-04-2008, 09:36 PM

I don't think so, but Steven White is a 26 year old prospect with no major league experience...
"26 year old" and "prospect" are not terms that go together well.

White might make a contribution - he keeps the ball down, and groundball pitchers are always worth a shot - but I'd say Mr. White needs to make his mark in MLB right now.

What Exit?

05-04-2008, 09:58 PM

"26 year old" and "prospect" are not terms that go together well.

White might make a contribution - he keeps the ball down, and groundball pitchers are always worth a shot - but I'd say Mr. White needs to make his mark in MLB right now.
He was drafted from college and has showed steady if slow progress every year (http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=30075).

I agree prospect should be less than 25 years old, but he has been showing the type of progress that at least makes a major league career look like a legit possibility for him. I might be abusing the word prospect for him, but it seems to be fitting in this case. I thought he might start contributing this year or next.

Jim

ElvisL1ves

05-04-2008, 10:05 PM

In an age when "star" just means "in the lineup fairly often", "prospect" is about the least impressive name available to give a player who has actually made the bigs, isn't it?

What Exit?

05-04-2008, 10:16 PM

In an age when "star" just means "in the lineup fairly often", "prospect" is about the least impressive name available to give a player who has actually made the bigs, isn't it?
Nah, we still have utility players, 4A players, wash-ups, trash-bin specials and mop-up pitchers.

Prospect still indicates the potential to be either an everyday player, starting pitcher or late inning reliever.

Normally they are still 25 or under. I know I was pushing the term in this case, but that is why I listed his age and gave his link.

Jim

RTFirefly

05-05-2008, 10:27 AM

Somehow my wondrous Nats are at 14-18, despite having the third-worst offense, and the fifth-worst pitching/defense, in the NL. (Measured in runs scored/allowed per game.) With 125/157 runs scored/allowed, their Pythagorean puts them at 12.4 - 19.6.

A good deal of the reason for this seems to be Matt Chico, the Nats' fifth starter, who's about as good an argument for a four-man rotation as you could come up with. The Nats' 1-4 starters all have ERAs in the 3's, but Chico's is 6.87 at the moment.

Given that the Nats' starters average about 5-1/2 innings per start anyway, you'd think they could go that long every fourth day, drop Chico from the rotation, and see a real improvement.

silenus

05-05-2008, 10:41 AM

What Exit?

05-05-2008, 10:52 AM

Jim, is there any indication Igawa has gotten himself on track? The bats are coming around, but I'm a little concerned Girardi is going to keep this team too tight.
Well, today the Daily News is reporting that it will be Kei Igawa that will get the call up. The term 'getting a return on their investment' were tossed around.

I am very happy with how Rasner pitch and the way the hitters hit this weekend. Rasner was not just sharp, but he threw quick and was very efficient getting through the line up. The only reason he did not start the seventh was to give the bullpen a little work before the off day.

Bayard

05-05-2008, 11:05 AM

So, the Cards took 2 of 3 from the Cubs. Both teams were acting like this was a huge series. The Cards play 4 in Colorado, then three in Milwaukee this week. If they can come out of this week in first place, maybe it will be time to start thinking of them as a real contender in the NL Central.

Best thing about Sunday's game (for me): I've been worried that Molina hasn't been throwing out baserunners at his normal outlandish pace. I was wondering if he was hiding some arm trouble. Then, he goes and throws out Ryan Theriot from his knees in the fifth last night. So, maybe his arm is OK after all.

Hawkeyeop

05-05-2008, 11:20 AM

All good things....and all that. Last night saw the end to the Dodgers' winning streak, stopped at 8. We're still 4 games behind Arizona, but things are looking good. We have turned a weak spot at third into a wealth of talent, with Nomar serving as the veteran and DeWitt as the rookie. La Roche is trade-bait now. Andruw Jones is a bust as a hitter so far, which some expected. But the rest of the bats have come alive, and we're looking for a hot May.

Go, Blue!

Dewitt is off to a decent enough start, but the Laroche is the Dodgers best option both for right now, and the future. Not starting Laroche everyday when he returns is the kind of mistake that the Dodgers can't afford to make if they are going to beat out the Dbacks.

dalej42

05-05-2008, 11:20 AM

Both the Dbacks and the A's look like they've come back down to earth.

On a better note, I get to go to my first game this year on Friday!

cmkeller

05-05-2008, 12:46 PM

Royals have rain-swept the Indians, which washes away some of the bad taste from the series loss to the Rangers. We still can't hit anything, but if our pitching can be consistent, that won't hurt so badly. Hopefully, Meche's great game is the start of a return to his 2007 form, and Banny's meltdown against the Rangers is an aberration and not proof of inconsistency. I guess another month will tell us mor clearly what we've got.

Asimovian

05-05-2008, 06:09 PM

Dewitt is off to a decent enough start, but the Laroche is the Dodgers best option both for right now, and the future. Not starting Laroche everyday when he returns is the kind of mistake that the Dodgers can't afford to make if they are going to beat out the Dbacks.What makes you say this? LaRoche has yet to prove himself in any kind of way at the Major League level. I'm not saying he isn't talented, but I'm not sure "best option" is the right assessment. Having DeWitt at third with Nomar and Russell Martin backing him up seems like a much better option, especially if we can trade LaRoche somewhere (not in our division) where he gets a chance to play every day. The outfield, I think, is covered despite Andruw Jones' no-show to this point. I'm not quite sure where the holes are at this point, particularly if we can get Schmidt (healthy) back in the rotation.

I will wait until the All-Star break to make any hard core predictions about the remainder of the season, but I'm not particularly concerned at the moment.

gonzomax

05-05-2008, 06:14 PM

Tigers cut Jacque Jones. They have 10 days to trade or release him. They brought up a minor leaguer. Now they are going to put Sheffield back in the field. He got hurt in the outfield last year, but convinced management he will be able to get deeper into the games if he plays outfield.

FoieGrasIsEvil

05-05-2008, 08:02 PM

I'll simply claim some lame form of allegiance to the most-storied and currently worst team in baseball, folks, I give you the Cincinnati Reds, with much-improved pitching comes the disappearance of the offense. Go figure.

I'm off to kill myself now, but I'll check this thread at the end of the month to see if we've hit the 20 games back mark by then.

mhendo

05-05-2008, 08:32 PM

Dewitt is off to a decent enough start, but the Laroche is the Dodgers best option both for right now, and the future. Not starting Laroche everyday when he returns is the kind of mistake that the Dodgers can't afford to make if they are going to beat out the Dbacks.Like Asimovian, i'm puzzled about your certainty on this issue.

Admittedly, i don't follow the Dodgers, and there may be something about LaRoche that screams "future superstar" or that suggests that he's a whole heap better than DeWitt, but it's certainly not in the numbers.

Here are their career numbers with the bat:

Name G AB H HR BB SO OBP SLG AVG

LaRoche 35 93 21 1 20 24 .365 .312 .226

DeWitt 26 75 22 0 10 10 .384 .400 .293
The first thing to notice is how small these sample sizes are. Neither guy has more than 100 at-bats.

Second, even if we do read anything into the numbers, i'd certainly be just as happy having DeWitt on my team as LaRoche, perhaps more so. And DeWitt is two years younger than LaRoche.

Their defense probably hasn't been tested enough to really give a sense of how good they are, but their defensive numbers aren't that far apart, with LaRoche having a slight edge.

You might be right that LaRoche is the better long-term prospect, but i'd be interested to hear why you think so.

Hawkeyeop

05-06-2008, 08:15 AM

Here are their career numbers with the bat:

Name G AB H HR BB SO OBP SLG AVG

LaRoche 35 93 21 1 20 24 .365 .312 .226

DeWitt 26 75 22 0 10 10 .384 .400 .293
That at bat number pretty much invalidates all the other information. You can't learn much from 100 at bats. What I have on my side is much more information.

In 1859 minor league at bats Dewitt has a line of 279/333/444 (AVG/OBP/SLG) . He basically has been a league average player against minor league competition, mostly lower level minor league competition. In fact, he only has 282 in double A with a replacement player level line of 245/282/376 and just 2 at bats at triple A.

In 1694 minor league at bats Laroche's line is 297/374/522 including destroying triple A to the tune of 310/398/570 with 32 home-runs in only 484 at bats. The numbers aren't in the same ballpark, and 100 at bats doesn't change that.

Giving up on a top prospect on 93 at bats is ludicrous. The preponderance of evidence says Laroche will be a very good major leaguer and Dewitt won't. Scouts agree, look at any prospect list and you will see Laroche very high, and Dewitt no where to be seen. Sure there are other possible outcomes, but none of them are likely, and it would be a mistake to base any decisions upon them.

Cluricaun

05-06-2008, 08:28 AM

Gah, Cubs! Soriano comes back and, get this, he's even worse than before. Has he faced a single count that didn't start out 0-2??!?! He's a disaster and they need to drop him down in the line up, now.

Last night was sad, 5 unearned runs to lose the game. I mean you win some and you lose some, but don't just hand a win over on a silver platter. Zambrano pitches tonight, hopefully that will help us take this one.

silenus

05-06-2008, 09:04 AM

Well, right now Laroche is broken and DeWitt is cranking. Got his first major league home run last night. Swap Laroche and Pierre for some sort of power hitter and be done with it.

DSYoungEsq

05-06-2008, 09:04 AM

Cluricaun

05-06-2008, 09:07 AM

What was Fontenot thinking? Down by two runs in the top of the ninth, you don't try for home unless you have certainty of making it. Bases are loaded, you just sit there and wait and see if there is a hit. Gah.

Was that Fontenot or the third base coach? For whatever reason this game was on WCIU and was broadcast in Ultra Blurry Vision so it was hard to see what happened, but it looks like once he got the notion he was two steps shy of being on time with the break from third. He also got pretty hot about the out with the home plate ump too. Still a bad move on his part in a night where he had already made an even bigger mistake.

cards

05-06-2008, 09:34 AM

storyteller0910

05-06-2008, 09:34 AM

Well, right now Laroche is broken and DeWitt is cranking. Got his first major league home run last night. Swap Laroche and Pierre for some sort of power hitter and be done with it.

But that's exactly the kind of approach that leads to short-term failure and long-term immolation. Through 78 at bats you've already gotten about the best you're ever going to get out of Blake DeWitt, and he's still slugging under .450 (good for a shortstop, not so much for a corner infielder). In another month, he'll settle in comfortably at .250/.325/.415.

That "well, we need something RIGHT NOW," so keep the guy on the short-term hot streak and trade the prospect who isn't producing at this exact moment is the attitude that leads a GM to trade Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano. Or Joe Nathan, Nelson Liriano, and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski.

Look at the team your Dodgers are chasing. The Diamondbacks have been successful in the last two or three years exactly because they've resisted trading Justin Upton, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young for short-term mediocre fixes - even though all three of those players have struggled. But now, all three are maturing together - Upton is going to be a real star - and so instead of patching together a quick-fix lineup every year, they have a core of developing superstars that will keep them competitive every year for a decade (or for as long as they can afford to keep the core together, of course).

If you trade Andy LaRoche, a guy who slugged .550 against Triple A competition at age 22, with Juan Pierre for some middle-of-the-road major leaguer with a bit of power:

1. You're still not going to beat the Diamondbacks, because now you're relying on Blake DeWitt to sustain career-best performance over an entire season; and

2. In 2010, when Andy LaRoche hits 35 home runs for the Oakland A's and you're still chasing the Diamondbacks, you're going to hit yourself repeatedly in the head.

Honestly, I don't get the Dodgers. If the Dodgers played it smart, in two or three years their lineup could include some combination of James Loney, Andy LaRoche, Chin-Lung Hu, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Russell Martin. And by 2010 you've got Ivan DeJesus, Jr, who's a major-league quality defensive player now, and Tony Abreu ready to join in the fun, too. That's a core that would be both awesome in its own right, and relatively inexpensive, freeing you to fill the remaining two or three lineup spots with whoever the top free agent is at the time.

Instead, they're wasting time with Juan Pierre and Garciaparra and Blake DeWitt and seriously considering trading away Andy LaRoche. It's weird.

mazinger_z

05-06-2008, 10:25 AM

Or Joe Nathan, Nelson Liriano, and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski. Even though AJ's average has dropped like a rock in the last three days, I still wouldn't trade him. He's the only one really hitting (ok, so is Quentin) and good catchers are extremely valuable, especially for my team where at least the pitching is good. I didn't have a lot of expectations for my WSox, but, to lose like this...to...to...Canadians? Ugh! I've always said that if there were ever a World Series between Toronto and Montreal (this will hold true to Washington as well ;) ), I would stop watching baseball. :) No offense RickyJay!

Big series against the Twinkies at home, hopefully they can pull their shit together.

mhendo

05-06-2008, 10:28 AM

In 1859 minor league at bats Dewitt has a line of 279/333/444 (AVG/OBP/SLG) . He basically has been a league average player against minor league competition, mostly lower level minor league competition. In fact, he only has 282 in double A with a replacement player level line of 245/282/376 and just 2 at bats at triple A.

In 1694 minor league at bats Laroche's line is 297/374/522 including destroying triple A to the tune of 310/398/570 with 32 home-runs in only 484 at bats. The numbers aren't in the same ballpark, and 100 at bats doesn't change that. Fair enough. As i said, i don't follow the Dodgers, and i certainly don't spend any time focused on their minor league players. If your stats and your career descriptions are correct, it does indeed look like LaRoche is the better player. Giving up on a top prospect on 93 at bats is ludicrous. The preponderance of evidence says Laroche will be a very good major leaguer and Dewitt won't. Scouts agree, look at any prospect list and you will see Laroche very high, and Dewitt no where to be seen. Sure there are other possible outcomes, but none of them are likely, and it would be a mistake to base any decisions upon them.Which is, i think exactly the point i was making—that the numbers i provided couldn't really tell us anything. My post was a question about why you thought LaRoche was better, and now you've answered it.

As for giving up on LaRoche, i never even suggested it. I see that he was officially sent to the minors (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080503&content_id=2636720&vkey=news_la&fext=.jsp&c_id=la) a couple of days ago, with Joe Torre apparently wanting him to get a bit more playing time. If that's really Torre's thinking, i don't see too much of a problem with it. DeWitt is hitting well right now, and if he keeps hitting well for another couple of weeks, it will do LaRoche no harm to play a few more games in the minors. An extra couple of weeks at Triple-A isn't going to derail a promising career, especially not if LaRoche is as highly thought of among baseball scouts as you say.

Of course, the real test will be what Torre and the Dodgers do with these guys in the long run.

Hawkeyeop

05-06-2008, 10:33 AM

That "well, we need something RIGHT NOW," so keep the guy on the short-term hot streak and trade the prospect who isn't producing at this exact moment is the attitude that leads a GM to trade Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano. Or Joe Nathan, Nelson Liriano, and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski.

If it was "Nelson" Liriano, it wouldn't of been such a bad deal.

Hawkeyeop

05-06-2008, 10:40 AM

As for giving up on LaRoche, i never even suggested it. I see that he was officially sent to the minors (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080503&content_id=2636720&vkey=news_la&fext=.jsp&c_id=la) a couple of days ago, with Joe Torre apparently wanting him to get a bit more playing time. If that's really Torre's thinking, i don't see too much of a problem with it. DeWitt is hitting well right now, and if he keeps hitting well for another couple of weeks, it will do LaRoche no harm to play a few more games in the minors. An extra couple of weeks at Triple-A isn't going to derail a promising career, especially not if LaRoche is as highly thought of among baseball scouts as you say.

Of course, the real test will be what Torre and the Dodgers do with these guys in the long run.

Exactly. What I'm concerned about (well if I was a Dodger fan I'd be concerned about) is thinking Dewitt is the future at third based on 100 at bats, or trading away Laroche on the sample size. I don't have any problem with the Dodgers easing Laroche back in by letting play a few weeks in the minors. Still, if he isn't the every day 3rd baseman by June, the Dodgers aren't putting their best team on the field. Given their competition, I don't think they have a lot of room for error. Dodgers have enough talent to compete with Arizona, but they need to make sure their best players play every day.

silenus

05-06-2008, 10:59 AM

As long as we keep Ethier off the field, we will never be playing "our best players every day."

You are probably right about Laroche, but it is too soon to tell, and I trust Torre more than I trust you or me. It also looks like Joe is more than willing to play Martin at third if need be, which really opens up the possibilities.

For that matter, we have Kershaw warming up in the wings to take his place in the rotation once Loaiza collapses for good. I've given up on Schmidt ever returning or being worth a damn.

DSYoungEsq

05-06-2008, 12:28 PM

Was that Fontenot or the third base coach? For whatever reason this game was on WCIU and was broadcast in Ultra Blurry Vision so it was hard to see what happened, but it looks like once he got the notion he was two steps shy of being on time with the break from third. He also got pretty hot about the out with the home plate ump too. Still a bad move on his part in a night where he had already made an even bigger mistake.
He is quoted today as saying that he thought the ball got further away from the catcher, so I presume he made the decision on his own. That's not usually a situation where a base coach has a say, anyway; too bang-bang.

ElvisL1ves

05-06-2008, 12:42 PM

I give you the Cincinnati Reds, with much-improved pitching comes the disappearance of the offense. Go figure.Do the fans (and talk-radio hosts) there whine about the Bronson Arroyo - Wily Mo Pena trade as much as they do out here? :D

gonzomax

05-06-2008, 02:32 PM

Fuckin Tigers are driving me nuts. I think they are taking Leland on the same drive.

Bayard

05-06-2008, 10:47 PM

After the Cards took the Cubs series and managed to win last night in spite of "Ricochet" Duncan misplaying four balls in left field, I am starting to think about drinking the Kool Aide. Sitting at 21-12 at the top of the division, when I would have reversed those win/loss numbers before the year started is a pleasent surprize. Pitching continues to look good (Izzy worries me, but he's worried me for years) and Duncan aside, the defense has been solid.
The Cards just survived a bullpen meltdown to pick up another win. Cool. But, my god, Ankiel has an awesome arm. He got two outfield assists tonight, each time gunning down runners at third with throws of over 200 feet. Unbelievable. Plus he cranked a home run. Pujols was a mere 1-for-5, but he has now reached base in every game this season. Kool Aid, comin' up!

ElvisL1ves

05-07-2008, 05:54 AM

How come Ankiel can throw strikes from 200 feet when he couldn't from 60 feet, 6 inches?
Yes, I know there's no real answer, but still ...

Bayard

05-07-2008, 07:09 AM

How come Ankiel can throw strikes from 200 feet when he couldn't from 60 feet, 6 inches?
Yes, I know there's no real answer, but still ...
That's a great line -- started my day with a laugh. I have no idea either, and I would have rather he developed into the pitcher we thought he was going to be, but watching him in the outfield is still a thing of beauty.

What Exit?

05-07-2008, 07:14 AM

Well Joba Chamberlain seems to have his main problems against the Indians. Last year it was the attack of the midges and this year he makes a 96 mph inside and high pitch to David Delucci who gets around on it and hits a 3 run homer.

I saw the pitch about 5 times. It looked like a good pitch. Only thing to do is tip the hat to Delucci and concede that Joba is human.

Saddest thing is Andy Pettitte lost a win.

Jim

FoieGrasIsEvil

05-07-2008, 07:16 AM

Do the fans (and talk-radio hosts) there whine about the Bronson Arroyo - Wily Mo Pena trade as much as they do out here? :D
The only bitching going on about Arroyo now is a: he sucks and b: he fancies himself a rock-n-roll singer...he even has a JTM (local meat company) commercial on TV with Chris Welsh where he's singing and strumming a guitar. It's p-thetic.

The Reds offense is in some kind of a funk. They are getting quality pitching from their starters (except Arroyo), but they simply CAN NOT SCORE! It's driving me nuts! Last night, lost 3-0, despite a good outing by Aaron Harang.

We are awful.

Cluricaun

05-07-2008, 08:44 AM

The Reds offense is in some kind of a funk. They are getting quality pitching from their starters (except Arroyo), but they simply CAN NOT SCORE! It's driving me nuts! Last night, lost 3-0, despite a good outing by Aaron Harang.

We are awful.

Rubber match this afternoon and with Leiber pitching you might be able to reverse that whole not scoring thing. Was it me or does Aramis Ramirez have some sort of a cast on his arm? I had to watch last night at the hospital as my sister in law had a baby and only caught the game in bits and pieces.

RickJay

05-07-2008, 12:50 PM

Asimovian

05-07-2008, 01:21 PM

As long as we keep Ethier off the field, we will never be playing "our best players every day."Couldn't agree more. I think Pierre deserves to play every day. Just not on our team. Ethier needs to be on that field as much as humanly possible.

What bugs me is that having both Pierre and Jones on the squad keeps Ethier and Kemp from playing daily. It's the only time in my life I've ever wished for the DH in the NL. Let Pierre swing his Nerf bat and run the bases and leave Jones in center field.
For that matter, we have Kershaw warming up in the wings to take his place in the rotation once Loaiza collapses for good. I've given up on Schmidt ever returning or being worth a damn.There's probably something seriously wrong with me for even thinking this, but I have this feeling Schmidt is going to prove valuable in the second half this year. If/when Loaiza falls apart, I like keeping Kuo in long relief if Schmidt can handle being a starter again. Honestly, Loaiza hasn't been bad in middle relief himself. And as you say, if Schmidt can't make it, Kershaw is no Edwin Jackson and will likely do just fine.

Scouts agree, look at any prospect list and you will see Laroche very high and Dewitt no where to be seenWhile I think most of your points regarding the DeWitt/LaRoche comparison are valid, this quoted statement isn't quite true. DeWitt has been ranked twice as the 8th best prospect in the organization and 43rd overall in the minors. He was listed by Baseball America as a top ten "cream of the crop" prospect in the organization just last year. I'm not saying that makes him superstar material, but he's not a nobody, either. So while LaRoche is clearly ranked higher, DeWitt is not exactly an accident himself. I'm not recommending that LaRoche be traded, but I would not be surprised to see DeWitt perform well at third if he continues to see a lot of playing time.

cards

05-07-2008, 02:29 PM

Rubber match this afternoon and with Leiber pitching you might be able to reverse that whole not scoring thing. Was it me or does Aramis Ramirez have some sort of a cast on his arm? I had to watch last night at the hospital as my sister in law had a baby and only caught the game in bits and pieces.

Congrats Uncle! Do the right thing and have the child avoid a life of frustration, don't raise the kid a Cub fan, raise a Cards fan! :D

Bayard

05-07-2008, 02:36 PM

Congrats Uncle! Do the right thing and have the child avoid a life of frustration, don't raise the kid a Cub fan, raise a Cards fan! :D
Case in point: Cubs are currently down to their last two outs, losing 9-0 to the mighty Cincinnati Reds. Maybe the Cards can pick up a game tonight.

Cluricaun

05-07-2008, 02:36 PM

Congrats Uncle! Do the right thing and have the child avoid a life of frustration, don't raise the kid a Cub fan, raise a Cards fan! :D

Too late, we start them early around these parts. My girlfriend stopped by the Cubs store on her way to the hospital and got him a Cubbies onesie, booties, bib, and skull cap, but thanks for the contrats!

ETA- Bah, fucking Reds. :D

FoieGrasIsEvil

05-07-2008, 02:52 PM

Too late, we start them early around these parts. My girlfriend stopped by the Cubs store on her way to the hospital and got him a Cubbies onesie, booties, bib, and skull cap, but thanks for the contrats!

ETA- Bah, fucking Reds. :D
Wow. SEVEN homeruns! THREE by Joey Votto!
Edison Volquez, our new pitcher, he's now 5-1 and today he had four hits, no runs, 10 strikeouts and SIX walks!
Crazy beatdown.

I hope the Reds can now make some hay against the recently struggling Mets. We've got a lot of ground to cover if we want to entertain the idea of catching up to those Cardinals...

mhendo

05-08-2008, 02:43 AM

Probability is coming back to bite Baltimore, as expected.

After going 8-3 in one-runs games to start the season, the Orioles have just lost 3 games by a total of 4 runs to the Oakland A's, including two one-run games (both of which went to extra innings).

The Birds are now back where they belong, in the sub-.500 zone, and at the bottom of the AL East, having lost 8 of their last 10.

I say this with no (well, not much) rancor. Baltimore is in such dismal shape that, even without a jerkoff like Peter Angelos calling the shots, they would need a few years to get back to winning. Even at just below .500, they are doing better than most people expected, and i would very much like it if they could continue to defy expectations. But i don't think it's going to happen.

The Blue Jays pitching continues to be amazing, having given up 19 runs in their last 10 games. While the offense has, to be charitable, continued to stink, they did manage 6 runs against the Rays yesterday, and have won 5 of their last 6.

The Yankees are also struggling a bit, and last night even perennial winner Chien-Ming Wang couldn't save them from a loss, after Cleveland's Cliff Lee held them scoreless. Lee's 0.83 ERA is amazing enough, but he also has a WHIP of about 0.60, having issued 25 hits and 2 walks (!) in 44+ innings of work.

Boston continues to steam along, and pulled off a great comeback against the Tigers last night, only to be denied the win by some extremely lucky Tigers bounces in the bottom of the 9th. A couple of infield hits, followed by a broken bat bloop single, gave Detroit what was probably an undeserved win.

cmkeller

05-08-2008, 08:15 AM

mazinger_z

05-08-2008, 09:47 AM

Apparently the WSox can't put two wins together. I wouldn't have minded the loss, but 1) the game should've been PPD; and, 2) 13-1? WTF? Clearly, they did not come to play.

mhendo

05-08-2008, 10:29 AM

I wouldn't have minded the loss, but 1) the game should've been PPDWhy?

Sure, they started 1 hour and 44 minutes late, but with the way the schedule is in Major League Baseball, they have to get the game in if they can. They have about 185 days during the regular season, in which each team has to fit in 162 games. That doesn't leave a lot of spare days, especially when travel is taken into account.

The White Sox already have a suspended game against Baltimore (April 28) to complete, and a postponed game against the Twins (April 10) to play. Letting even more of these pile up early in the season would make things difficult down the road, and a delay of under 2 hours is not especially unusual, nor that much of a hardship.

gonzomax

05-08-2008, 10:38 AM

How come Ankiel can throw strikes from 200 feet when he couldn't from 60 feet, 6 inches?
Yes, I know there's no real answer, but still ...
From personal experience ,I understand. I had a big arm when I was growing up. I played outfield and could throw accurately to home plate and other bases with little trouble. Every now and then a coach would try to move me to pitcher. I couldn't throw strikes to save my life. Anyone batting would have been in danger. I tried and tried but it would not go where I aimed.

dalej42

05-08-2008, 10:53 AM

Looking forward to seeing the A's and the Rangers tomorrow night. The Rangers actually seem to be playing a bit better although their pitching is still close to the bottom of the majors. The A's are coming off a sweep of the O's and I'll predict they take at least 2 of 3 from Texas this weekend.

The D-backs have come back down to earth. Still, I'd rather see them playing .500 ball than go on a long losing streak.

Wargamer

05-08-2008, 11:35 AM

Well, the Braves continue to be a team of opposites. 13-4 at home, 4-11 on the road. They've allowed the fewest runs in the league, yet are 0-9 in one-run games. The injuries to the pitching staff have been too numerous to list, but they have the best ERA in the NL.

Oh yeah, Chipper's hitting .430-ish, with an OPS well north of 1.200. If you watch any of his ABs, he's waiting for that one pitch he can handle, and He Is Not Missing It. Obviously he has to cool off, but for now, I don't recall anyone being this hot for this long since Pudge Rodriguez a decade or so back.

mazinger_z

05-08-2008, 11:36 AM

Why?
Purely personal reasons. Also, I didn't have much confidence in their ability to win as the temperatures grew colder and the day drew on. All hunch and instinct and no actual facts behind it. I understand the schedule, but putting off a loss later is much better than getting one now, imho.

gonzomax

05-08-2008, 07:05 PM

A couple observations. The umps seem to be calling checked swings differently this year. i see more strikes called on what appears to be a checked swing than in previous years. Did they change a rule somewhere?
Broken bats. They break like crazy and I have seen a couple incidents where the bat narrowly missed hitting a player. Once a pitcher . But our second baseman had to avoid a piece of a bat to catch a slow grounder a couple days ago. Some one is going to get hit with a bat shard.

What Exit?

05-08-2008, 08:43 PM

I'm not sure how he is doing it, I guess he has turned into a Righty version of Jamie Moyer, but Moose keeps racking up wins. He is 5-3 now despite another not very good game. 3 runs in only 5 innings.

He looks very hittable and yet seems to just get by.

Jim

mhendo

05-08-2008, 11:05 PM

Well, your birds are in Kansas City this weekend. So unless last night was a genuine wake-up call for Royal bats rather than a fluke, you stand a pretty good chance of winning a few. And you won't have to face Zach Grienke at all (barring freakishly long extra-inning games).Well, the Birds got a win tonight after an excellent complete game, 1-run, 3-hit performance by Daniel Cabrera. When he doesn't walk people—he only issued a single base-on-balls tonight—he really has the stuff to be a great pitcher.

KC pitcher Hochevar actually pitched pretty well too, giving up only 5 hits and two walks in 7 innings. Unfortunately for him, one of those walks and one of the hits came early in the 3rd inning, and were followed by Markakis' three-run homer. That was really his only bad inning, although the other Baltimore run did score on a pretty bad wild pitch.

The Orioles are now 22-5 in KC over the past few years, and hopefully the next couple of days will add to the record.

RickJay

05-08-2008, 11:09 PM

Lord, but the Blue Jays offense is terrible.

I wonder what the record is for the worst team to have a really good pitching staff.

Tonight's game was particularly galling, as they went something like 1-for-89 with runners in scoring position, including three strikeouts after Rios tripled to lead off the tenth. The first, Shannon Stewart, was just an unbelievably terrible at-bat; Stewart just didn't look prepared to hit at all, and on a 2-2 count watched an 89-MPH fastball go right down the pipe. It was inexcusable that a major league hitter would strike out that way. What function Stewart serves, I cannot discern.

Omniscient

05-08-2008, 11:34 PM

Houston with Oswalt, Clemens and Pettitte were pretty limp hitters as was Arizona with Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and a couple other guys. There's been plenty of teams with that trouble.

dalej42

05-09-2008, 04:00 PM

Jim Edmonds was just released by the Padres. I'm thinking he'll be picked up quickly.

In other news, the D-backs blew their game against the Cubs this afternoon. No excuse for this at all. I don't like baseball in 40 degree weather in May, though.

I'm off to watch Oakland beat the Rangers tonight!

DSYoungEsq

05-09-2008, 05:21 PM

Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win!! :D

dalej42

05-09-2008, 05:24 PM

Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Cubs Win!! :D

Ugh. Didn't like that one at all.
Oh well, at least I'm a two team fan.

I'm going to go watch the Oakland A's demolish Texas. It is way above 46 degrees, too!

Southern Yankee

05-09-2008, 07:28 PM

Hey fellow Yankee fans, Kei Igawa is back, baby!

Back to sucking really, really hard.

Least Original User Name Ever

05-09-2008, 08:46 PM

Hey fellow Yankee fans, Kei Igawa is back, baby!

Back to sucking really, really hard.

Yeah, Kei Igawa doesn't deserve to be in the majors with that stuff. Ick. Throw him back.

DSYoungEsq

05-09-2008, 08:58 PM

Ugh. Didn't like that one at all.
Oh well, at least I'm a two team fan.

I'm going to go watch the Oakland A's demolish Texas. It is way above 46 degrees, too!
Actually, if I were you, I'd be concerned about that eighth innning pitching job by Cruz. That was pretty poor pitching. Home run to Lee, walk Ramirez on some really bad pitches, let Fukudome get aboard without much trouble, then after making the rookie catcher look like a fool (hey, you nut, if he's thrown you the same pitch twice in a row, he just MIGHT not throw it to you a third time!), walk de Rosa with really really bad pitches, then almost let the whole thing get blown open with a mediocre at best job of pitching to the .266 batter Johnson.

Of course, since it was the Cubs, they let y'all off the hook quite nicely. :smack:

What Exit?

05-09-2008, 09:02 PM

Hey fellow Yankee fans, Kei Igawa is back, baby!

Back to sucking really, really hard.
I would have replied sooner, but the vortex around him nearly got me.

Did I mention he was not a good choice to promote? I think I did.

Hell, the 45 year old Boomer would pitch better than Kei has.

Jim

RickJay

05-09-2008, 10:51 PM

Jays lose again, 6-1. It would be hard to imagine how a team could be more boring. Apparently there ARE a couple of teams with worse offenses, but it's sure hard to imagine how it could be possible.

In their last 23 games the Blue Jays have scored more than five runs in a game exactly once. In effect, the pitching has to be great every night; not once this year has the team won a game when the opposition scored more than 5 runs. If your offense can't steal at least one or two games, there's just no way your pitching can be THAT good. You can't throw a shutout every night.

What's fascinating, watching the team flail, is how terrible the entire team is hitting. Not one player appears to be hitting the ball hard with any sort of regularity; they're all hopelessly mistimed, pulling away from the ball and hitting ground balls. The number of double plays they've grounded into is astounding for a team with few baserunners. It's like watching an entire team of Josh Barfields.

I'm usually really skeptical of "Fire the guy!" calls, but it's difficult to believe that over the course of 37 games, essentially EVERY player on a team could be performing under expectations. EVen accounting for the big drop in hitting so far this year, the Jays have basically nobody who is hitting as well as you would have hoped, except for Scott Rolen, who just rejoined the team two weeks ago so maybe he hasn't caught the disease yet, and Joe Inglett, who hasn't played much. At some point you do have to think a houselceaning is in order.

But having said that, the offense was bad last year too. It was average in 2006, and bad in 2005. The team lacks a blue chip offensive talent (unless Rolen returns to 2004 form) and has a lot of moderate-ceiling players and only one legitimate Grade-A hitting prospect in the entire system. It's just not a very good team, and I fear we're witnessing the beginning of a period - probably coming into full force in 2009 or 2010 - when they might be cellar dwellers for several years.

There's a lesson to be learned here about how successful sports teams are built, but it's a bit late and I'm too tired to explain it.

ElvisL1ves

05-10-2008, 08:04 AM

I wonder what the record is for the worst team to have a really good pitching staff.The Series-winning 1906 White Sox, the "Hitless Wonders" (http://www.netshrine.com/rcarter.html) with a .230 team BA, maybe?

Looks like the eBay price for "Chacin" Cologne will be going up now ...

Thudlow Boink

05-10-2008, 08:51 AM

The Cards just survived a bullpen meltdown to pick up another win. Cool. But, my god, Ankiel has an awesome arm. He got two outfield assists tonight, each time gunning down runners at third with throws of over 200 feet. Unbelievable. Plus he cranked a home run. Pujols was a mere 1-for-5, but he has now reached base in every game this season. Kool Aid, comin' up!Speaking of bullpen meltdowns, right now it's looking like Jason Isringhausen is the Cardinals' weakest link. After blowing another save that the Cards should have won last night, Izzy himself admits he pitched like a second grader. :smack: I hope he can figure out and fix whatever's wrong.
Jim Edmonds was just released by the Padres.And part of the reason people were counting the Cardinals out was that they "lost" Edmonds, Rolen, and Eckstein. :dubious:

Southern Yankee

05-10-2008, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by What Exit?
I would have replied sooner, but the vortex around him nearly got me.

Did I mention he was not a good choice to promote? I think I did.

Hell, the 45 year old Boomer would pitch better than Kei has.

Jim

Can we trade him back to his Japanese club for a bag of balls or something else of equal value? On the plus side, the pen gave them a chance to get back in the game. But it officially looks like it's going to a long season.

RickJay

05-10-2008, 01:24 PM

The Series-winning 1906 White Sox, the "Hitless Wonders" (http://www.netshrine.com/rcarter.html) with a .230 team BA, maybe?
I asked about the WORST team with a good pitching staff. :)

Anyway, believe it or not, the Hitless Wonders weren't a bad offensive team. They only scored 3.7 runs a game, but the league average was just 3.67; Chicago didn't have much of a batting average, but they got the runs home. They drew a lot more walks than anyone else and ran the bases well; in that environment, running bases with intelligence could make a huge difference. It was a really, really hard league to score runs in.

What Exit?

05-10-2008, 03:57 PM

Can we trade him back to his Japanese club for a bag of balls or something else of equal value? On the plus side, the pen gave them a chance to get back in the game. But it officially looks like it's going to a long season.
In theory we will tire of him and then trade him to a Western NL team. We will get back a player with some talent but over the age of 25. They will believe they can correct Kei's issues and it will help removing him from NY. We might get someone that can give us a few good innings in relief or a decent utility guy.

I don't think we will ever get our money's worth out of Kei. It was a bad signing and I thought so at the time. Though for the record, I did not want to pay Dice K the money either and I suspect many in Boston are happy enough with their contract. That year I thought Hideki Okajima was the guy the Yanks should have grabbed and instead the Red Sox got a great bargain.

Jim

dalej42

05-10-2008, 05:02 PM

Ugh, looks like the D backs want to give up another game to the Cubs.

What Exit?

05-10-2008, 05:34 PM

On the bright side for the Yanks, Rasner pitched another very good game:

Pitcher IP PC H ER BB K
Rasner 6.0 87 4 2 1 1

ZipperJJ

05-10-2008, 08:58 PM

Good Lord, RickJay - our Tribe has fantastic starters and ho-hum hitters and we're clobbering the fuck out of your Jays tonight. We've scored 8 first-inning runs in the first 35 games, and we scored 6 in the first on McGowan tonight.

I'll extend my thanks to Toronto for helping us get our bats back, I suppose.

RickJay

05-10-2008, 09:21 PM

Good Lord, RickJay - our Tribe has fantastic starters and ho-hum hitters and we're clobbering the fuck out of your Jays tonight.
McGowan came into the game with a 2.95 ERA in 7 starts, and just two wins to show for it. He's allowed a bad one now and then.

I suspect we'll start seeing more of this. The offense is just so unbelievably, and consistently, bad that the starting pitchers must be thinking "I have to pitch a shutout or I'll lose." When you're getting no support at all, it must be tremendously disheartening. On a real team, if you get off to a bad start and give up a few runs, you think, "Well, okay, but if I stop them now, maybe we can put some hits together, pull this one out." On the Blue Jays, you give up four runs and that's the ballgame. They can't keep pitching as well as they have been feeling like the hitters aren't going to help them at all.

The only question now is how soon and how atrociously the team will melt down. They're much worse than the standings suggest; you look at them at 17-21 and think, "Well, shit, that's not that bad. With that pitching, and few breaks here and there, a few guys hit like they're capable, they could get into it." Trust me; direct observation tells you this is a team in serious trouble that isn't being coached well, and an understanding of the team's current roster makeup will provide you with some alarming facts; they have no legitimate hitting prospects above A ball. None. The cupboard is bare, and they've committed huge contracts to players of questionable All-Star status.

Will Gibbons be fired, then Ricciardi, or will Paul Godfrey fire them both and clean house? Will there be a desperate attempt to get someone to take Overbay off their hands? Will Rolen be traded for prospects? Burnett? Halladay?

What Exit?

05-10-2008, 09:40 PM

The cupboard is bare, and they've committed huge contracts to players of questionable All-Star status.

Will Gibbons be fired, then Ricciardi, or will Paul Godfrey fire them both and clean house? Will there be a desperate attempt to get someone to take Overbay off their hands? Will Rolen be traded for prospects? Burnett? Halladay?
What did happen to the minors of the Jays? I tend to only track the 2 NY teams and Boston for the minors.

ZipperJJ

05-10-2008, 09:41 PM

We happen to be in a similar place as the Jays right now - very little run production except the odd awesome game. We're also in a surprisingly shitty division so our 18-18 record puts us a half game out of first.

But, unlike the Jays, we have talent up the ying-yang. They're just being lazy or something. Once again, Carroll and Cabrera were in the game and we won. I should write a letter to Eric Wedge about this.

I kind of feel sorry for Toronto. I wouldn't want to be in the same division as the Yanks and Sox. Seems like they are forced to spend all kinds of dough or get to the back of the bus.

Everyone in Cleveland is slowly coming around to the "vision" of the post-90's Indians. Glad we have such a solid base made up of farm-bred boys and can really hang tough with our tiny payroll.

Moirai

05-10-2008, 09:56 PM

Jim Edmonds was just released by the Padres. I'm thinking he'll be picked up quickly.

Yeah, at least one team has contacted him. But who knows if he'll play... If the Padres were a better team, they might have given him more time to get his game back. But they all pretty much suck right now.

Tazmanian Devil

05-11-2008, 07:21 AM

Speaking of bullpen meltdowns, right now it's looking like Jason Isringhausen is the Cardinals' weakest link. After blowing another save that the Cards should have won last night, Izzy himself admits he pitched like a second grader. :smack: I hope he can figure out and fix whatever's wrong.

Looks like LaRussa is going to take Isringhausen out of the closer role for the time being so he can work on whatever is causing his ineffectiveness. The Cardinals will be going to somewhat of a bullpen by committee, with Ryan Franklin getting the majority of the opportunities. If Izzy can get back on track, he should regain the closer role by the end of the month.

ElvisL1ves

05-11-2008, 08:08 AM

If the Padres were a better team, they might have given him more time to get his game back. But they all pretty much suck right now.The Pads were the likeliest place for the Sox to trade Coco Crisp. But if he's not simply going to patch a hole in a good team, forget it - he's staying in Boston.

Could we interest you in Julio Lugo or Julian Tavarez, maybe?

RickJay

05-11-2008, 03:58 PM

What did happen to the minors of the Jays? I tend to only track the 2 NY teams and Boston for the minors.
They've drafted really, really badly since Ricciardi became the GM. Aaron Hill has panned out and that's about it.

I don't know WHY their drafts have been so awful; the general consensus is that they spent a lot of draft picks on college juniors and seniors who were safe mid-level talents, instead of getting higher-potential players. It's worth nothing the team fired most of the scouting staff, and hasn't gotten a lot of talent from the Carribbean. But of course, that's all "maybe this is the reason" stuff. It could just be that Ricciardi and his team aren't very good at judging amateur talent.

They were rained out today, so they scored the same number of runs they usually do.

What Exit?

05-11-2008, 04:41 PM

They've drafted really, really badly since Ricciardi became the GM. Aaron Hill has panned out and that's about it.

I don't know WHY their drafts have been so awful; the general consensus is that they spent a lot of draft picks on college juniors and seniors who were safe mid-level talents, instead of getting higher-potential players. It's worth nothing the team fired most of the scouting staff, and hasn't gotten a lot of talent from the Carribbean. But of course, that's all "maybe this is the reason" stuff. It could just be that Ricciardi and his team aren't very good at judging amateur talent.

They were rained out today, so they scored the same number of runs they usually do.
Maybe they stoled away those geniuses in Tampa that forced Gene Michaels out of the role in the Yankee organization.

When he supervised the drafts, we built a team out of prospects with several hall of farmers and many all stars. Once he got pushed out we developed Soriano and no one else. Then Cashman got control and had Michaels as his chief adviser and suddenly the farm system is producing again. I see absolutely no pattern there though. ;)

Jim

RickJay

05-11-2008, 06:15 PM

Maybe they stoled away those geniuses in Tampa that forced Gene Michaels out of the role in the Yankee organization.

When he supervised the drafts, we built a team out of prospects with several hall of farmers and many all stars. Once he got pushed out we developed Soriano and no one else. Then Cashman got control and had Michaels as his chief adviser and suddenly the farm system is producing again. I see absolutely no pattern there though. ;)
Terry Ryan, who built years of contending teams in Minnesota, is still jobless, I believe. If they made me King of the Blue Jays I'd call him up and tell him to name his price.

It's funny how people blame managers for winning and losing. I don't think managers have much to do with it at all. GENERAL managers, though, have eerything to do with it.

dalej42

05-11-2008, 06:58 PM

Just not a good weekend for my teams.

Oakland beat the Rangers in a typical Sunday wild game.
I wish the D Backs and Cubs would have been rained out. But, alas they played the game in lousy Midwestern weather in May!

What Exit?

05-11-2008, 07:02 PM

Terry Ryan, who built years of contending teams in Minnesota, is still jobless, I believe. If they made me King of the Blue Jays I'd call him up and tell him to name his price.

It's funny how people blame managers for winning and losing. I don't think managers have much to do with it at all. GENERAL managers, though, have eerything to do with it.
I think managers have more to do with post season success than regular season, but don't sell them short on the impact of the good and the bad.

Some are great at in game decisions. They have the tactics down and don't make foolish mistakes or overuse the pitching staff. Some are great communicators and make it easier for the players to just play. Some can motivate through a combination of fear and rah-rah. A few just have a strange feel for the game and make the right decisions even when it does not follow baseball logic.

Then there are managers that lose their team, throw their own players to the wolves or consistently make tactical blunders. Most don't last long, but Ozzie Guillen appears to be beloved by ownership if not the fans as did Isiah Thomas in another sport.

I think a good GM with a good plan is as important as a good manager, but managers can mean a +/- 5 games during the season and have a huge impact on the post season where every decision is magnified and impact many future decisions. By this point the GM is little more than another spectator.

Jim

dalej42

05-11-2008, 07:24 PM

RickJay

05-11-2008, 07:32 PM

About the last comment above.

What do you think of Lou Pinella as a manager?

I have to say I fall into the failure category. He's a great baseball guy and I'd love to drink a beer with him. However, he has not shown himself as a great manager in my opinion.
Not sure which comment you mean but I'll weigh in.

The difference between managers in terms of their in-game decision making is so small as to be undetectable. There are two things no reasonable baseball person can deny:

1. Most ballgames are not won or lost by virtue of strategic decisions. The vast majority of games are won or lost purely by one team outhitting/outpitching the other team, and no tactical move could make a difference.

2. Most managers at the major league level, given the same personnel, manage essentially the same way. There is really very little variation today. No managers today has the balls to use a 4-man pitching staff through the entire year, or to try a shifted pitching system, or to bat his highest OBP leadoff if the guy hits home runs.

3. The one area where a manager CAN make a huge difference is in the players he selects to do certain jobs, but to be honest, that decision rests in the GM's hands to a large extent.

Lou Piniella is about as successful as you would expect a manager to be given the teams he's been entrusted with. Managers who are legitimately BAD at the job - and there have definitely been those - simply don't last long enough to matter.

What Exit?

05-11-2008, 07:41 PM

About the last comment above.

What do you think of Lou Pinella as a manager?

I have to say I fall into the failure category. He's a great baseball guy and I'd love to drink a beer with him. However, he has not shown himself as a great manager in my opinion.
He is an odd one. He is great at in game tactics to score extra runs, but he has always been hard on bullpens and unrealistic.

He appeared to be a good motivator for the Yanks, Reds, Mariners and even Tampa. I don't have any feel for his Cubs time.

He seemed to be a good post season manager. I think this is where the Xs and Os of baseball are seen the best.

Overall he did great by three teams and could not do much of anything with the minimal pitching talent he had in Tampa. I would say he is a good manager with some obvious flaws. This includes not being great with the press and being such a hothead that he did call out several player in front of reporters and fans.

RickJay, you don't think a manager makes the +/- 5 game difference in a season? That is often the margin of making it into the post season.

Jim

RickJay

05-11-2008, 08:21 PM

HeRickJay, you don't think a manager makes the +/- 5 game difference in a season? That is often the margin of making it into the post season.
Oh, gosh, no. I really don't think tactics could possibly add that many wins in a season. I can't see any way that could be true.

You mention you think Lou Piniella was effective at using tactics to score extra runs. It'd take me awhile to run some numbers to see if there's any evidence that is true, but just at a glace I can't see how it would be possible for a manager to add five wins by virtue of offensive tactics; that would be FIFTY runs, an absolutely immense number. Even half that (assuming that your +/- 5 wins would have to include both offense and defense) strikes me as being unlikely. 25 runs is a lot of runs; it's a run about every six games. At the major league level there are no proactive tactics that will let you score that many more runs; bunting men to second costs runs, bunting men to third doesn't come up very often and is only useful in a limited number of situations, and the value of basestealing is largely determined by your personnel, not your manager, since only high-percentage basestealers are worth a damn.

This is probably not true in lower levels of baseball. I'm just talking about the majors.

A particularly inept manager could certainly SUBTRACT five or more wins by doing remarkably stupid things, but he wouldn't last a season. It's also possible that a manager may add many wins by virtue of what he does behind the scenes to keep things going smoothly, prevent the GM from doing something idiotic, keep George Steinbrenner happy, etc., but

a. It's not possible for us to kjnow for sure what impact that has and
b. In most cases it probably doesn't matter.

DSYoungEsq

05-11-2008, 08:35 PM

About the last comment above.

What do you think of Lou Pinella as a manager?

I have to say I fall into the failure category. He's a great baseball guy and I'd love to drink a beer with him. However, he has not shown himself as a great manager in my opinion.
Well, he's a step up from Dusty Baker, that's for sure!!! :p

Oh, did I say the obligatory "CUBS WIN!"? <getting out the broom> :D

DSYoungEsq

05-11-2008, 08:37 PM

Oh, gosh, no. I really don't think tactics could possibly add that many wins in a season. I can't see any way that could be true.

You mention you think Lou Piniella was effective at using tactics to score extra runs. It'd take me awhile to run some numbers to see if there's any evidence that is true, but just at a glace I can't see how it would be possible for a manager to add five wins by virtue of offensive tactics; that would be FIFTY runs, an absolutely immense number. Even half that (assuming that your +/- 5 wins would have to include both offense and defense) strikes me as being unlikely. 25 runs is a lot of runs; it's a run about every six games. At the major league level there are no proactive tactics that will let you score that many more runs; bunting men to second costs runs, bunting men to third doesn't come up very often and is only useful in a limited number of situations, and the value of basestealing is largely determined by your personnel, not your manager, since only high-percentage basestealers are worth a damn.

This is probably not true in lower levels of baseball. I'm just talking about the majors.

A particularly inept manager could certainly SUBTRACT five or more wins by doing remarkably stupid things, but he wouldn't last a season. It's also possible that a manager may add many wins by virtue of what he does behind the scenes to keep things going smoothly, prevent the GM from doing something idiotic, keep George Steinbrenner happy, etc., but

a. It's not possible for us to kjnow for sure what impact that has and
b. In most cases it probably doesn't matter.
Why would adding 5 wins be that many runs? You don't have to add that many runs in a game to win, you just have to add as many as needed not to have lost those games. Since they are likely games where there were close outcomes, you wouldn't need to add more than, say, 7 or 8 runs, as long as they occurred at the right time.

Omniscient

05-11-2008, 08:53 PM

Not sure which comment you mean but I'll weigh in.

The difference between managers in terms of their in-game decision making is so small as to be undetectable. There are two things no reasonable baseball person can deny:

1. Most ballgames are not won or lost by virtue of strategic decisions. The vast majority of games are won or lost purely by one team outhitting/outpitching the other team, and no tactical move could make a difference.

2. Most managers at the major league level, given the same personnel, manage essentially the same way. There is really very little variation today. No managers today has the balls to use a 4-man pitching staff through the entire year, or to try a shifted pitching system, or to bat his highest OBP leadoff if the guy hits home runs.

3. The one area where a manager CAN make a huge difference is in the players he selects to do certain jobs, but to be honest, that decision rests in the GM's hands to a large extent.

Lou Piniella is about as successful as you would expect a manager to be given the teams he's been entrusted with. Managers who are legitimately BAD at the job - and there have definitely been those - simply don't last long enough to matter.

This is an incredibly pig headed train of thought. I know it's en vogue to argue that Managers are meaningless in baseball and it's certainly true that they get far too much blame and credit for losses and wins, but to argue that it is negligible is crazy. I agree that it'd be very difficult to statistically quantify it, and that in-game strategy is a dubious and inconsistent mistress but they DO make a difference.

Piniella on Cubs is a prime example. He's doing a poor job by having Soriano lead off. Soriano does indeed decide the games he's in and Piniella doesn't deserve the credit of blame for when he succeeds or fails but the managers job is to optimize the output of a specific likelihood. He's doing a good job of playing his utility/role players at optimal times. Getting Reed Johnson and Ronny Cedeno into the lineup versus the right opponents has been something he's been damn near prescient at. These might not be "tactical" decisions in the vein of making a pitching change versus a lefty, stealing a base or bunting a runner into scoring position but filling out the lineup card and understanding the strengths of your personnel is not something that every manager does the same. I'll agree that the difference between the best and 3rd best manager is essentially nil, the difference between a good one and a average one does equate to wins. At the same time, there are assuredly average managers out there who will excel with specific lineups because they might have an inherently better relationship with a certain subset of players.

What Exit?

05-11-2008, 09:07 PM

Oh, gosh, no. I really don't think tactics could possibly add that many wins in a season. I can't see any way that could be true.

You mention you think Lou Piniella was effective at using tactics to score extra runs. It'd take me awhile to run some numbers to see if there's any evidence that is true, but just at a glace I can't see how it would be possible for a manager to add five wins by virtue of offensive tactics; that would be FIFTY runs, an absolutely immense number. Even half that (assuming that your +/- 5 wins would have to include both offense and defense) strikes me as being unlikely. 25 runs is a lot of runs; it's a run about every six games. At the major league level there are no proactive tactics that will let you score that many more runs; bunting men to second costs runs, bunting men to third doesn't come up very often and is only useful in a limited number of situations, and the value of basestealing is largely determined by your personnel, not your manager, since only high-percentage basestealers are worth a damn.

This is probably not true in lower levels of baseball. I'm just talking about the majors.

A particularly inept manager could certainly SUBTRACT five or more wins by doing remarkably stupid things, but he wouldn't last a season. It's also possible that a manager may add many wins by virtue of what he does behind the scenes to keep things going smoothly, prevent the GM from doing something idiotic, keep George Steinbrenner happy, etc., but

a. It's not possible for us to kjnow for sure what impact that has and
b. In most cases it probably doesn't matter.
Well if we base it on 10 run per win or even 5 per, I understand why you disagree. I was thinking that a good manager makes a difference in up to 5 close games where it take 1-2 runs to get the extra win or to save the bullpen from being exhausted by an extra inning game and thus being available in early in the next series in a close game.

RickJay

05-11-2008, 09:42 PM

This is an incredibly pig headed train of thought.
Well, I can't answer this here.

But I can answer it here. (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=9791547#post9791547)

Now, What Exit! and DSYoungEsq make good points. However, even acknowledging that managers will tend to make tactical decisions only in high-impact situations - nobody bothers to bunt when it's 14-1 - if you're going to convince me that it can make a 5-game difference, I have to be convinced there's a five-game difference between two major league managers, not a 5-game difference between what one manager does and a theoretical manager who does nothing at all. I'm not sure - absent real evidence - that there's really that big a difference. No manager's THAT different in his approach from another one.

In fact, conformity is the rule; look at how all managers have adopted the "Closer" role for their relief ace, which is, strategically, really stupid; it would make more sense to use your best reliever as a "Fireman," the way they used to use them. But they've all conformed to the approved method. A manager who would break away from that could, at least briefly, make a big difference.

I agree that there are isolated cases where a manager could make a big tactical impact. A manager who was brave enouh to say "Closer? Fuck that. My main man is now a fireman" could easily put five extra wins on the board; "Closers" are the dumbest idea in fifty years.

For another example, What Exit? has already hinted that a big difference could be made in the postseason, and it's been argued that Joe Torre had a lot to do with the Yankees' postseason success in the late 90s. It's hardly remembered anymore, but for a long time managers managed in the postseason more or less the same way they did in the regular season, except for maybe shortening the starting rotation. You'd often hear announcers talk about how old Mike Manager was keeping his starter in, even though he was in trouble, because you couldn't use the WHOLE bullpen today, you had to worry about Game 2. Torre was the first manager, that I remember, to just completely dump that; the saying about him, which he might have coined but if he didn't someone else did for him, was "the best preparation for tomorrow's game is to win today." What, Rivera's pitched two days in a row? Fuck that, I need to win today, bring him in. Torre, I think, recognized two facts:

1. In the postseason you get a dramatically greater number of off days.
2. Managing like you did in the regular season just doesn't make any sense. In the regular season you HAVE to take it slowly and rest guys, and if you lose four games in one week it's not a big deal. In the playoffs if you lose four games in one week, you're out. There is no room for a marathon approach; you are always on the edge of doom.

Now, however, that advantage is gone, because now every manager manages that way; Torre's approach became the accepted one. But for a few years there he gave his team a big edge.

Least Original User Name Ever

05-11-2008, 11:17 PM

dalej42

05-12-2008, 11:21 AM

Took the Brewers long enough to end the Gagne as closer debacle. 10 million dollars for this guy?
Anyone think Ned Yost is on the hot seat? Brewers haven't been as good as they should with all of that talent.

The Cards moving Isringhausen out of the closer role was also expected.

I'm actually liking the NL Central race now. Even the Astros are playing better.

DSYoungEsq

05-12-2008, 11:29 AM

Now, if the Cubs can join the other two and end the Kerry Wood as closer experiment, we might actually have three teams playing to their potential. :p

What Exit?

05-12-2008, 11:29 AM

It also "hurts" not having a bigger bench.
This brings up a good point. The bullpens have creeped up to a huge size now. Many teams have 13 pitchers, leaving only 4 bench players on AL teams. The days of three catchers are long gone now. You rarely even see the old generalist of C-1B-LF.

Is it time for baseball to work some deal with the Union to expand the team size upwards by 1 or 2 players?

What is not happening in the minors that the multipurpose catcher has disappeared from the game? They use to be common.

Would the Union trade the DH for a 26 man team? This would add two bench spots to the AL squads.

Would the owners want to do away with the DH at this point?

If not a DH, what would the owners want back from the Union for a 26 or even 27 man major league teams.

Jim

RickJay

05-12-2008, 11:50 AM

It also helped that he could (in the beginning of his run as Yankee skipper) pull up some of the finest righty and lefty setup men in front of the best closer in baseball history.

I agree with you, though. Hell, if it were all up to me, I'd have a hard time not bringing up youngsters for a week, even if they're just on the pine.
Unfortunately, there's limitations on bringing guys up and sending them down, and financial implications, and having them on the 40-man roster, yadda yadda yadda. The financial implications have made teams afraid of bringing up guys too early because they're worried the player who's be productive at first and then will start making big bucks earlier. You've got major and linor league option limitations, revocable and irrevocable waivers, roster limits, mutual funds, Venn diagrams and second derivatives; it's all insanely complicated and to be quite honest I don't fully understand it all because it's like trying to understand the tax code. In fact, my understanding is that the full MLB roster rules aren't formally made public. Every now and then something happens, like a Blue Jay scrub will get nabbed by some other team, and I'll be surprised because I didn't realize that guy was "out of options," but this other guy wasn't. "Hey, why could they take him?"

This brings up a good point. The bullpens have creeped up to a huge size now. Many teams have 13 pitchers, leaving only 4 bench players on AL teams. The days of three catchers are long gone now. You rarely even see the old generalist of C-1B-LF.

Is it time for baseball to work some deal with the Union to expand the team size upwards by 1 or 2 players?
It'd be interesting to see how those negotiations play out. How do the owners do that without putting a lot more guys a year closer to arbitration? There'd be some interesting tradeoffs.

But that said, I think what is going to end up happening is that teams will stop carrying 13 pitchers, and will eventually get down to 11, and maybe even 10 early in the year. Four-man rotations will come back eventually. It just doesn't make any sense to have as many pitchers as they do. A few times already this year the Jays have brought some guy in to pitch and my reaction has been "Hey, Tallet's back," and he'd been there all the time, he just hadn't been used in a week.

Going to 26 or 27 players might have some unintended negative consequences; you might get more specialization, rather than seeing generalists come back into the game. You might see some guy decide to carry fourteen or fifteen pitchers, God help us all.

Cervaise

05-12-2008, 11:57 AM

The offense is just so unbelievably, and consistently, bad that the starting pitchers must be thinking "I have to pitch a shutout or I'll lose." When you're getting no support at all, it must be tremendously disheartening.This is what's happening to the Mariners.

Starting pitching is pretty good. Bedard is as advertised. Hernandez is still young and occasionally foolish but is nevertheless an asset. Silva's a workmanlike innings-eater. Ditto Washburn, a rung down on the talent scale. Batista is wildly inconsistent but turns in a stellar performance as often as he gets torched. Backup starter Baek is serviceable. Bullpen isn't as good as last year but is acceptable.

But the defense is mediocre, and offensive performance is horrifying. Yesterday was the first time in twenty tries they were able to overcome a two-run deficit. Read that again if you don't believe me: in nineteen previous contests, when the opposition got two runs ahead, the game was over.

And the losses aren't even scrappy (and entertaining) failures. They're just boring and listless.

The M's were a long shot to do anything notable this year, but the massive early collapse is simply stunning. Second or third place was expected; but a smoking crater? WTF?

RickJay

05-12-2008, 12:20 PM

But the defense is mediocre, and offensive performance is horrifying.
A lot of people are complaining that their teams can't hit, so I looked it up; AL teams are averaging 4.4 runs per game. That's actually lower than the NL (4.6) and half a run lower than last year. That's a freakin' ton of runs; it's as if every team replaced its best hitter with Craig Monroe.

Seattle, Toronto and Kansas City are all scoring fewer than 4 runs a game. In the previous ten years, only 3 AL teams managed to do that all season; the 1998 Rays, who were a first year expansion, and the 2002-2003 Tigers, rightly considered among the worst teams ever assembled.

I guess the 'roids are wearing off!

Least Original User Name Ever

05-12-2008, 12:26 PM

And that's another awesome point. Does anyone know how long it takes for steroids to get out of someone's system?

That's assuming that they're not finding some other more covert way to do the drugs, of course.

Omniscient

05-12-2008, 03:58 PM

This brings up a good point. The bullpens have creeped up to a huge size now. Many teams have 13 pitchers, leaving only 4 bench players on AL teams. The days of three catchers are long gone now. You rarely even see the old generalist of C-1B-LF.

Is it time for baseball to work some deal with the Union to expand the team size upwards by 1 or 2 players?

What is not happening in the minors that the multipurpose catcher has disappeared from the game? They use to be common.

Would the Union trade the DH for a 26 man team? This would add two bench spots to the AL squads.

Would the owners want to do away with the DH at this point?

If not a DH, what would the owners want back from the Union for a 26 or even 27 man major league teams.

Jim

I think if they expanded the teams it's almost certainly end up sending more players into the Bullpen. Every spring it seems that the final and most difficult cuts involve who will be the 5th starter and who will be the lefty reliever. Rarely does a manager fret about who his extra lefty bat or utility player will be. Adding more players to the roster will most likely add players to the Pen and lead to even more one-batter pitching substitutions. Shoot me now.

Wee Bairn

05-12-2008, 04:07 PM

A lot of people are complaining that their teams can't hit, so I looked it up; AL teams are averaging 4.4 runs per game. That's actually lower than the NL (4.6) and half a run lower than last year. That's a freakin' ton of runs; it's as if every team replaced its best hitter with Craig Monroe.

Seattle, Toronto and Kansas City are all scoring fewer than 4 runs a game. In the previous ten years, only 3 AL teams managed to do that all season; the 1998 Rays, who were a first year expansion, and the 2002-2003 Tigers, rightly considered among the worst teams ever assembled.

I guess the 'roids are wearing off!

I was wondering about this myself- are home runs down as well?

RickJay

05-12-2008, 04:44 PM

I was wondering about this myself- are home runs down as well?
Uh, lemme do soms math:

2008: 0.86 homers per team per game
2007: 0.99 homers per team per game
2006: 1.12 homers per team per game
2005: 1.07 homers per team per game

So yes, they're down quite a bit, and that's after having been down quite a bit already in 2007.

Batting average is WAY down:

2008: .258 throughout the AL
2007: .271
2006: .275
2005: .268

The AL batiing average hasn't been as low as .258 since 1981.

Asimovian

05-12-2008, 04:51 PM

Uh, lemme do soms math:

2008: 0.86 homers per team per game
2007: 0.99 homers per team per game
2006: 1.12 homers per team per game
2005: 1.07 homers per team per game

So yes, they're down quite a bit, and that's after having been down quite a bit already in 2007.

Batting average is WAY down:

2008: .258 throughout the AL
2007: .271
2006: .275
2005: .268

The AL batiing average hasn't been as low as .258 since 1981.Is the homerun statistic also AL-only?

FoieGrasIsEvil

05-12-2008, 04:51 PM

Going to the Reds game tonight, I've got Diamond Club seats, the best in the house, that my employer gave me. Aaron Harang is pitching, he of the 1-5 record, with an ERA of THREE, holder of fourth place in MLB in strikeouts...did I mention he has a 1-5 record?

I hope the Redleggers swing some lumber tonight...gonna need the fireworks to keep my young sons from getting too bored!

RickJay

05-12-2008, 05:14 PM

Is the homerun statistic also AL-only?
That's all AL numbers. Sorry, I should have made it clearer.

RickJay

05-12-2008, 05:41 PM

Blue Jays shut out again. Two more GIDPs. Five hits, all singles.

I wonder if they can get shut out in the second game of the doubleheader, too. Given that they're up against a guy having one of the hottest starts of any pitcher in modern baseball history, I'm guessing they can do it. Don't give up, boys; a double shutout IS possible! Keep your eye off the ball!

It's horrifying, but strangely fascinating.

ElvisL1ves

05-12-2008, 06:00 PM

BTW, congratulations to the Tampa Bay Rays for setting a franchise record. For the first time in their entire history, they're a full 5 games above .500.

mhendo

05-12-2008, 06:16 PM

Going to the Reds game tonight, I've got Diamond Club seats, the best in the house, that my employer gave me. Aaron Harang is pitching, he of the 1-5 record, with an ERA of THREE, holder of fourth place in MLB in strikeouts...did I mention he has a 1-5 record?Example #23,651 of why Wins are a crappy indicator of pitching ability. If only some of the morons who vote for the Cy Young awards would work this out.

Moirai

05-12-2008, 07:17 PM

BTW, congratulations to the Tampa Bay Rays for setting a franchise record. For the first time in their entire history, they're a full 5 games above .500.

You're welcome, any time... th'hell is wrong with the Angels...

What Exit?

05-12-2008, 07:18 PM

Example #23,651 of why Wins are a crappy indicator of pitching ability. If only some of the morons who vote for the Cy Young awards would work this out.
Yanks have a great example of this. Moose who appears very hittable is 5-3 with a 4.36 ERA. He is pitching better than I expected. Yet the second best starter on the team is only 3-3 despite a 3.77 ERA and more Ks. Andy Pettitte should be 5-2 if it was not for tough breaks and Moose has won games where he put up a weak 5.

At this rate the Rays will go to 6 over and Andy will pick up another hard luck loss.

ZipperJJ

05-12-2008, 08:33 PM

GOD I loves me some Asdrubal Cabrera!!!

Unassisted triple play (http://indians.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080512&content_id=2686835&vkey=news_cle&fext=.jsp&c_id=cle)

mhendo

05-12-2008, 08:41 PM

GOD I loves me some Asdrubal Cabrera!!!

Unassisted triple play (http://indians.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080512&content_id=2686835&vkey=news_cle&fext=.jsp&c_id=cle)Cool!

Rafael Furcal had an almost identical play a few years ago.

ETA:

Jesus, it was against the Blue Jays, too. That will just make RickJay's day! :)

What Exit?

05-12-2008, 08:56 PM

GOD I loves me some Asdrubal Cabrera!!!

Unassisted triple play (http://indians.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080512&content_id=2686835&vkey=news_cle&fext=.jsp&c_id=cle)
Wow, only the 14th. I was watching when Randy Velarde turned one against the Yanks. It had to be 99 or 2000 and I think he was playing for the Angles at the time, maybe the A's.

I just updated the Wikipedia page (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unassisted_triple_play) and determined Randy did it on May 29, 2000.

ZipperJJ

05-12-2008, 08:57 PM

Jesus, it was against the Blue Jays, too. That will just make RickJay's day! :)

Yeah but we're losing in extra innings now. We had to take Lee out and our closer got goofy. (grrr!)

VarlosZ

05-12-2008, 09:30 PM

RickJay, do those numbers on previous years' offensive levels refer to entire seasons, or are they "this time last year" numbers? As I'm sure you're aware, HR-rates in April are not the same as HR rates in August.

I read a BP article a few days ago (that I can't now find for the life of me) that addressed this issue, and determined that runs are down so far this year, even though OBP and SLG are basically the same. I forget the supposed reason why, if there was one. I'll do some more digging.

mhendo

05-12-2008, 09:41 PM

RickJay, do those numbers on previous years' offensive levels refer to entire seasons, or are they "this time last year" numbers? As I'm sure you're aware, HR-rates in April are not the same as HR rates in August.They're for the whole season, according to Baseball Reference.I read a BP article a few days ago (that I can't now find for the life of me) that addressed this issue, and determined that runs are down so far this year, even though OBP and SLG are basically the same. I forget the supposed reason why, if there was one. I'll do some more digging.Well, OBP in the AL this year is .329, which is slightly down on previous years.

SLG is .395.

In the previous ten seasons, overall AL SLG has never been below .420 for the season.

As the weather warms up, those balls might travel further, leading to more homers and better slugging percentages. I don't know what the comparisons are for equivalent points in the season.

VarlosZ

05-12-2008, 09:44 PM

Ahh, here we go (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7454) (subscription only). The relevant portion:

I threw out a notion to our internal list last week that it felt—just in watching way too much baseball—like offense was down this year. With a month's action now in the books, here’s what we have:

AL . . . . . . AVG OBP SLG ISO R/G
April 2008 .260 .334 .398 .138 9.04
April 2007 .255 .327 .404 .149 9.36

NL . . . . . . AVG OBP SLG ISO R/G
April 2008 .256 .331 .404 .148 9.11
April 2007 .258 .332 .400 .142 9.31

It’s a peculiar thing. The elements of offense are not really down—the triple-slash stats in each league are essentially the same. My personal thought—that power seemed to be down and that it appeared fly balls weren’t going for extra-base hits—isn’t borne out all that well by the data. On the other hand, despite this, run scoring is down a fair amount: about three percent in the AL, and two percent in the NL. This could be a blip, but I’m having trouble understanding why rates would remain the same while scoring would decline. This will require more study as the season plays out, but it’s something to watch, especially because while all declines in power will be laid at the feet of the changes in approach to PEDs, the actual reasons for something like this are usually more subtle.

RickJay

05-12-2008, 09:51 PM

Well, my prediction the Jays would be shut out again was sort of true; they didn't score for nine innings, but Marcum was great and they won it in the tenth.

Things can't really get any worse than hitting into triple plays. I even had a bad feeling Overbay might hit into a triple play, though I assumed it'd be a 5-6-3 job.

[QUOTE=RickJay, do those numbers on previous years' offensive levels refer to entire seasons, or are they "this time last year" numbers? As I'm sure you're aware, HR-rates in April are not the same as HR rates in August.

I read a BP article a few days ago (that I can't now find for the life of me) that addressed this issue, and determined that runs are down so far this year, even though OBP and SLG are basically the same. I forget the supposed reason why, if there was one. I'll do some more digging.[/QUOTE]
Interestingly, since that article, AL run scoring has gone down even more. The OBP and SLG are declining now too.

I'd ink it up to steroids, but if that's it, why is the NL scoring so many more runs than the AL? It's weird. Maybe the AL just has a lot of awesome pitchers.

dalej42

05-13-2008, 02:28 PM

Wee Bairn

05-13-2008, 03:59 PM

Eric Gagne says he is ready to return to the closer's role.

Hopefully, Ned Yost does not agree. Perhaps Gagne should take time to count each and every dollar bill from that ten million, then return to closing..should take until at least the end of October...

The fact that the Brewers didn't see by his performance in Boston last year that he was finished, is stunning. The fact that then overpaid to sign him is insane.

VarlosZ

05-13-2008, 04:51 PM

More from BP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7514) on the drop in offense in the AL. The article does not require a subscription if read it today. Some excerpts (the charts may make this look like more than "fair use" because of the space they take up, but this is actually only a small percentage of the article -- about two paragraphs worth of text out of 22 paragraphs in the article):

Runs per Game through May 10
AL . . . . . . . . . NL
2008: 8.74 -- 2008: 9.19
2007: 9.34 -- 2007: 8.73
2006: 10.00 -- 2006: 9.46
2005: 9.16 -- 2005: 9.16

Rates through May 10, AL only
. . . . AVG . OBP . SLG
2008 .257 .328 .392
2007 .258 .330 .407
2006 .269 .337 .432
2005 .261 .334 .415

Rates through May 10, AL only
. . . . . BABIP . G/F. . FB/PA . HR/FB . XBH/FB K/PA . K/BB
2008 -- .292 -- 1.68 -- .203 -- .111 -- .352 -- .163 -- 1.83
2007 -- .293 -- 1.56 -- .211 -- .120 -- .370 -- .166 -- 1.87
2006 -- .298 -- 1.61 -- .219 -- .134 -- .374 -- .156 -- 1.82
2005 -- .293 -- 1.52 -- .214 -- .119 -- .348 -- .160 -- 1.99

. . . What is driving the drop in runs? Well, fly-ball rates have dropped to a four-year low, and when batters do hit the ball in the air, they aren’t getting as much bang for their buck. The rate of HR/FB is at a four-year low, and XBH/FB a three-year low; the drop from 2007 to 2008 ranges from five to 10 percent in both cases. American League batters are hitting fewer fly balls, and when they hit them, they’re not getting as much production out of them. That’s why slugging and home-run rates are way down, and with them, run scoring.

. . . Speculation inside the game, as Buster Olney referenced in his blog Saturday, centers on the theoretical eradication of performance-enhancing drugs from the game in the wake of the Mitchell Report. Personally, I dismiss this out of hand. Since 2003, when survey testing kicked off a series of regimes and punishment mechanisms, offensive levels, and specifically power, have jumped around from year to year independent of what rules were in place . . . The biggest reason to dismiss this claim, though, is the league split. Runs per game, slugging, and XBH/FB are all up in the National League, whose players are subject to the same testing program as the ones in the AL.

. . . Over the last year or so, we’ve heard a lot about teams getting away from the style of baseball played during the peak of the high-offense era, and trying to play better defense. Personnel decisions along the lines of playing Tony Pena Jr. or Asdrubal Cabrera add up, and they start to impact the league’s statistics. Teams have been choosing defense over offense, and that is probably the biggest reason for the drop in offense in the AL: personnel selection. Managers and GMs are putting lesser hitters on the field in an effort to prevent runs, and they’re getting just that result—for themselves and the opposition.

RickJay

05-13-2008, 08:48 PM

VarlosZ

05-13-2008, 09:04 PM

mhendo

05-14-2008, 12:59 AM

A question for anyone else who follows the Mets: does Jose Reyes look like he has a somewhat different batting stance this year? Specifically, he's breaking his wrists a ton while holding the bat, tapping it on his shoulder and tilting it below parallel. Maybe I'm misremembering and he always did it like that, but the impression I'm getting is that his stance is different in that the bat has a longer distance to cover to get to the ball, which ultimately hurts his pitch recognition by forcing him to commit sooner, and that this may be the cause of his slow start.Before asking complicated questions about his stance (which may have changed, as you suggest), it's worth questioning the underlying assumption in your post: that Reyes has had a "slow start."

I just don't see it, really. He seems to be pretty close to last year's numbers, although down on the numbers from his standout 2006 season.

His batting average is down a little from last year, but this early in the season that is literally a difference of 2 hits. He has 38 hits in 143 at-bats, for an average of .266. If he had 40 hits, his average would be .280, exactly the same as it was for last year.

His on-base percentage is down by a similarly small margin, but his slugging percentage is up a little over last year (helped by 5 triples already), making his OPS almost exactly what it was last year. His OPS+ last year was 103 (100 = average), and so far this year it's 104.

There may be something new or bad about his stance, but i really don't see much in his numbers to indicate an exceptionally slow start.

VarlosZ

05-14-2008, 01:36 AM

Well, he's doing a little worse than last year, and significantly worse than what you could reasonably expect given that this is his age 25 season and he's still improving. PECOTA, for example, had him pegged for .288/.347/.431 (actual: .266/.335/.434).

Granted, it's early enough in the season that it could be a statistical aberration, and he has been coming out of it lately (he definitely had a slow start, though I guess it's an open question as to whether he's still having one). It's largely a subjective impression I get. He just seems to be swinging at some bad pitches that he was taking last year. Then again, his #P/PA is the same as last year's (it's actually been almost identical every year since 2005, when he had an OBP of .300 -- how has he managed that?).

Fugazi

05-14-2008, 05:52 AM

ElvisL1ves

05-14-2008, 06:14 AM

The fact that the Brewers didn't see by his performance in Boston last year that he was finished, is stunning. The fact that then overpaid to sign him is insane.In fairness, Gagne was having a decent season in Texas before the trade, even after his operation. In Boston, the consensus was that he's just one of those fragile souls who can do fine in a low-pressure environment like SoCal or Texas but can't take it in Boston or New York. It happens. He may yet regain his mojo now that he no longer has millions of people expecting him to be a Cy winner again.

Bayard

05-14-2008, 07:31 AM

A fascinating thing just happened during the Blue Jays game. A Blue Jay batter (Matt Stairs) struck a ball with such force that it went over the outfield wall on the fly. I do not remember a Blue Jay hitter ever having done such a thing. The announcers referred to this as a "home run." This moniker seemed ill-chosen, as the batter in fact did not run, but rather jogged around the bases. Evidently the act of hitting a fair ball beyond the outfield fence results in the automatic award of four bases.

I wonder if other teams achieve this remarkable feat as well.
Indeed. However, in the case of the Cardinals, the apparent custom is to follow a game-tying 8th-inning home run by your best player with a bullpen collapse in extra innings. And the 'pen was looking like such a bright spot earlier in the year. Curses!

Cervaise

05-14-2008, 09:37 AM

I wonder if other teams achieve this remarkable feat as well.Another remarkable item this morning: I go to check the American League standings, and in reviewing the figures for the East, I see that not only is there (apparently) an AL team based in Florida, but it has somehow appeared at the top of the rankings in its division. I'm not sure what's going on here, but I trust the commissioner's office will be investigating this mystery shortly.

What Exit?

05-14-2008, 09:51 AM

Another remarkable item this morning: I go to check the American League standings, and in reviewing the figures for the East, I see that not only is there (apparently) an AL team based in Florida, but it has somehow appeared at the top of the rankings in its division. I'm not sure what's going on here, but I trust the commissioner's office will be investigating this mystery shortly.
This is the first time that both Florida teams have ever been in first place at the same time, quite remarkable. (Especially considering that their two salaries together probably don't equal the next lowest team in the AL East or nay NL east except the Nats.)

It should of course correct itself as eventually the Yanks & Red Sox will start hitting like the are suppose to. I am beginning to believe that Tampa can finally finish over .500 though.

Jim

dalej42

05-14-2008, 10:28 AM

Gagne's back!

He got the save last night even though he did his best to try to blow it again.

Randy Johnson got real lucky to get a win last night. Johnson hasn't been consistant at all. When Doug Davis gets back, it will be real interesting to see if Johnson stays in the rotation.

mhendo

05-14-2008, 05:11 PM

The Orioles just took a two-game series against the Red Sox, winning 5-4 last night on the back of a three-run homer, and 6-3 today after a Jay Payton grand slam gave them the lead.

Daniel Cabrera gave up 10 hits, but they were pretty well spread out and only resulted in 3 runs, two of them solo homers. He also didn't issue a walk. He has now given up more than 3 walks only once in his last seven starts, which is huge for him.

Manny made an amazing catch in left field, and actually appeared to high-five a Red Sox fan in the crowd before turning and gunning the ball back to the infield for a double play. Just Manny being Manny.

The Red Sox have dropped 4 in a row, and the Rays remain at the top of the division.

What Exit?

05-15-2008, 08:11 AM

Yanks only scored two runs last night, making four for the first three games against Tampa. Despite this the Yanks actually won last night and Moose pitched another befuddling game where the hitters had to be saying to each other, "But he is so hittable." If Moose is really turning into the right-handed Jamie Moyer, it is very good news for the Yankees.

I believe Ian Kennedy returns and pitches today against Scott Kazmir who is also returning, though he from injury. The game should be at 4pm.

Jim

dalej42

05-15-2008, 08:50 AM

Oakland got shut out again against Cleveland. Looks like the A's are coming back down to earth. However, the Mariners are struggling and the Rangers will fizzle out after the All Star game, so my prediction of Oakland as the second place AL West team should come true.

I looked up at ESPN this am when I was in the gym (no sound). As soon as I saw the clips from the Brewers game, I was thinking another Gagne blow save. I know I'm real hard on the guy, but he can't be blamed for that one last night.

Speaking of ESPN, they actually had a game last night without the Yankees or Red Sox! I can't believe that FOX doesn't have the Yankees/Mets as their Saturday game, either.

mhendo

05-15-2008, 09:16 AM

Oakland got shut out again against Cleveland. Looks like the A's are coming back down to earth.They also ran into red hot Cleveland pitching. The Cleveland starters have not given up a single run in their last 48 innings. The C.C. Sabathia doomsayers of April were also a bit premature, i think. He has looked very good over his last five starts, giving up 6 runs in 36+ innings, including a complete game shutout last night.

Sigmagirl

05-15-2008, 09:17 AM

Tribe pitching has been outstanding. Our starters have gone 34 straight innings without giving up a run. If our offense could have just scored 1 run in the second game on Monday, we would have 4 straight shutouts. (the runs we gave up were in the 10th).

If our offense would just wake up, we could run away with the Central.
And again! Sabathia goes the distance in a shutout, and two solo HRs are all the Tribe can put up in offense. Still, a win is a win, and the Indians are in sole possession of first place in the Central.

ETA: Hello, mhendo.

gonzomax

05-15-2008, 09:45 AM

A fascinating thing just happened during the Blue Jays game. A Blue Jay batter (Matt Stairs) struck a ball with such force that it went over the outfield wall on the fly. I do not remember a Blue Jay hitter ever having done such a thing. The announcers referred to this as a "home run." This moniker seemed ill-chosen, as the batter in fact did not run, but rather jogged around the bases. Evidently the act of hitting a fair ball beyond the outfield fence results in the automatic award of four bases.

I wonder if other teams achieve this remarkable feat as well.
Not the Tigers. They have been shut out 8 times this year. How can a whole team not hit at the same time? Granderson came back from the DL and hit great for a couple weeks. Whatever virus that the other hitters have eventually spread to him and now he too is in a slump. Baseball is getting hard to watch. Optimism in a game has been replaced with "how are they going to blow this one".

Bayard

05-15-2008, 09:53 AM

Chicago picked up the preserved remains of Jim Edmonds yesterday. I actually hope Edmonds has a good year left in him. He was a big part of the Cards for a long time, and I hate to see him stumbling toward the end of a great career. Of course, I hope he doesn't come to life against my beloved Cards, but otherwise I wish him the best. How do the Cubs fans like this signing? I see some people saying Cubs fans hate Edmonds and this deal, but I'm only seeing that on a partisan Cardinals board. He's only going to cost the Cubs something like $290,000 this year, so he's cheap. Is he just a cheap bat for the bench, or are they going to prop him up in center?

FoieGrasIsEvil

05-15-2008, 12:50 PM

This about sums up the Red's fanbase's feelings. This is very funny, too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoF3SbtYR20&eurl=http://forum.go-bengals.com/index.php?showtopic=42405&hl=

What Exit?

05-15-2008, 01:06 PM

storyteller0910

05-15-2008, 01:25 PM

On Mike & Mike this morning, they were talking about how the Cubs could use him in Center and send the kid back to the minors for seasoning.

Good grief. Why would they do that? They're in first place; would it kill them to give Pie some on the job training? Pie probably would put up the same numbers as Edmonds, but be fifteen years younger.

Bayard

05-15-2008, 01:29 PM

Good grief. Why would they do that? They're in first place; would it kill them to give Pie some on the job training? Pie probably would put up the same numbers as Edmonds, but be fifteen years younger.
And, wouldn't Pie get some benefit from being around Edmonds. I have no idea what Edmonds is like as a teammate, but it sounds like there'd be a good opportunity for Pie to be mentored by one of the greats.

ETA: I don't necessarily mean HOF-great, but still

storyteller0910

05-15-2008, 01:33 PM

Hey, hawkeyeop or any other Mets fans around: anyone watching the game today? If not, you should go check it out.

Hawkeyeop

05-15-2008, 01:40 PM

Hey, hawkeyeop or any other Mets fans around: anyone watching the game today? If not, you should go check it out.

Holy crap. Thanks :) Turning on the audio now. I'd expect a hit any minute now. Either that or we will have a no-hitter through 9, but lose it in extra innings. Do I sound confident or what?

storyteller0910

05-15-2008, 01:41 PM

Holy crap. Thanks :) Turning on the audio now. I'd expect a hit any minute now. Either that or we will have a no-hitter through 9, but lose it in extra innings. Do I sound confident or what?

What is this thing of which you speak, this no-hit-ter?

storyteller0910

05-15-2008, 01:42 PM

Hawkeyeop

05-15-2008, 01:45 PM

Could have been Milledge. That would of been worse.

Sigmagirl

05-15-2008, 01:48 PM

It's Indians 4, Oakland 1 in the top of the eighth. Jhonny Peralta homered in the seventh inning, scored on a Travis Hafner single in a two-run third and was driven in by Ryan Garko in the first.

Hawkeyeop

05-15-2008, 01:50 PM

By the way, can I say I told you so yet on the Rays being in first and signing Kazmir? Do I need to wait a bit longer? Keep it mind, any bragging on my front will result in an immediate 10 game losing streak.

storyteller0910

05-15-2008, 01:51 PM

Could have been Milledge. That would of been worse.

What will be worse will be when Kazmir gets his no hitter later this year, and Bannister throws a perfect game in 2009 - against the Mets, with Ambiorix Burgos the losing pitcher.

Hawkeyeop

05-15-2008, 01:55 PM

What will be worse will be when Kazmir gets his no hitter later this year, and Bannister throws a perfect game in 2009 - against the Mets, with Ambiorix Burgos the losing pitcher.

Now you are being entirely unrealistic. Burgos healthy enough to pitch? I mean really.

Sigmagirl

05-15-2008, 02:27 PM

Indians 4, Oakland 2, final. Whew. Betancourt walked the bases full and then Kobayashi let a run score on a wild pitch, but there was enough insurance to get out of it.

dalej42

05-15-2008, 03:08 PM

Indians 4, Oakland 2, final. Whew. Betancourt walked the bases full and then Kobayashi let a run score on a wild pitch, but there was enough insurance to get out of it.

I don't think, "Whew" is exactly what I was thinking. Good thing I was at work or else I would have shouted out some loud profanity!!!! :mad:

Bayard

05-15-2008, 03:09 PM

So, we're hanging on to a one-run lead going into the 8th. LaRussa gives the ball to.... Jason Isringhausen. Izzy allows four runs before getting an out. Ron Villone is trying to stop the bleeding now. LaRussa, can you just use Izzy as middle relief for a while? Anything? Please, you're breaking my heart here.

cmkeller

05-15-2008, 05:24 PM

There's no joy in MoTown - mighty KC has struck out...the Tigers!

dalej42

05-15-2008, 05:41 PM

I've been watching the Astros/Giants game this afternoon as well.

The Giants managed to choke away a 6 run lead?

Asimovian

05-15-2008, 06:02 PM

I've been watching the Astros/Giants game this afternoon as well.

The Giants managed to choke away a 6 run lead?What? Did they bring Barry Zito out of the bullpen or something?

gonzomax

05-15-2008, 06:16 PM

There's no joy in MoTown - mighty KC has struck out...the Tigers!
Just join the crowd. The Tigers can not be that bad. Can They?

bouv

05-15-2008, 07:46 PM

I really don't know what to think. On the one hand, Tampa Bay is on top of the AL East...that's no good, it just doesn't feel right. On the other hand, the Yanks are at the bottom of the AL East...and that gives me warm, fuzzy feelings.

Seriously, though, are we in bizarro land? Should I start feeling my face to see if it's all bumpy?

RickJay

05-15-2008, 08:13 PM

Least Original User Name Ever

05-15-2008, 10:27 PM

The Tigers know how to hit pitches, right? We're fielding a major league lineup, right?

Right?

dalej42

05-16-2008, 07:20 AM

What? Did they bring Barry Zito out of the bullpen or something?

Somehow, I thought they'd managed to trade for Eric Gagne, Jason Isringhausen, and Kerry Wood right in the middle of the game!

dalej42

05-16-2008, 07:23 AM

The Tigers know how to hit pitches, right? We're fielding a major league lineup, right?

Right?

Not against the D-backs!

Although you'll probably get some hits against Randy Johnson on Sunday.

What Exit?

05-16-2008, 07:44 AM

The entire AL East is separated by 4.5 games, so I wouldn't really make anything of what's happened so far.

The Yankees have done this before, and they always come back. (http://www.theonion.com/content/news/fucking_yankees_reports_nation)
I keep looking at it from the other side, The Yanks are not doing too bad considering both Rookie starters bombed out and A-Rod and Posada are both injured at the same time that Cano & Giambi are not hitting. Now it looks like Cano is finally waking up and A-Rod may be back sometime next week.

I would be a lot more worried if Boston had got off to a great start or even the Jays. If our target is the Rays and no outstanding Wild Card team is showing itself yet, it is too soon for Yankee fans to worry.

ElvisL1ves

05-16-2008, 07:48 AM

Boston was up 3.5 just a week ago or so. Then the injury bug came back for the position players, and the sucking bug came back for the bullpen.

Long season coming, sure - but they're still the most solid team in the league. I'll still go with the WC coming from the Central, with the Sons of Steinbrenner 2.0 spending October on the golf course.

RickJay

05-16-2008, 08:05 PM

The Blue Jays have already surrendered three home runs to Jayson Werth tonight - and they were a slam, a 3-run jack, and a solo shot.

If he can belt a two-run homer he'll not only be (IIRC) the 16th player to hit four home runs in a game, but would be the first to ever homer for the cycle.

He's due up in the 7th, but since it's a home game it may be his last chance to hit it, unless the Phillies pour it on a little more...

gonzomax

05-16-2008, 08:14 PM

Is this the beginning of a dead ball era or has steroid use stopped. Home runs are getting scarce.

FoieGrasIsEvil

05-16-2008, 10:05 PM

Is this the beginning of a dead ball era or has steroid use stopped. Home runs are getting scarce.
Come, Danielsan, play against the Reds in Great American Ballpark, and ye shall be granted your homerun wish......

YAY! the Reds win four in a row, defeating the previously best-recod in the bigs holder Florida, and now owners of a four-game win streak starting with an 4-3 win over the stinky Indians!
YAY!

I know it won't last, this is Cincinnati we're talking about here, let an old man have his 4 games in a row...

FoieGrasIsEvil

05-16-2008, 10:07 PM

Is this the beginning of a dead ball era or has steroid use stopped. Home runs are getting scarce.
Pitching has gotten remarkably better. Don't kid yourself, this is America's game...it's as pure as the driven snow!
:p

RickJay

05-16-2008, 10:25 PM

Is this the beginning of a dead ball era or has steroid use stopped. Home runs are getting scarce.
Only in the AL. Home runs and scoring in the NL have declined only a very small amount. If there was some massive dropoff due to steroids, why would it be limited only to the AL?

Fewer 'roids might have something to do with it, but there's probably other factors at play as well. As was suggested upthread (or in something linked upthread) the bizarre AL dropoff may be due to teams deliberately choosing to play glove men at key positions, and dropping offense to do so. It doesn't take a lot of bad hitters to make a big difference.

But steroid usage may well be a factor. I don't think it's possible pitching suddenly got a lot better. For one thing, walks and strikeouts - the two things pitchers control most - aren't any different.

Least Original User Name Ever

05-16-2008, 10:52 PM

I seriously can't think of a reason that the hitting blight would hit the AL only. If ANYTHING, you'd think that the AL would always be the hitting king.

Bah.

Least Original User Name Ever

05-17-2008, 09:39 AM

For fuck's sake. Come on bullpen. Keep a lead.

Least Original User Name Ever

05-17-2008, 10:32 PM

Thanks for trying to blow this game as well for us, Tigers bullpen.

God, why am I typing this now? Todd "Roller Coaster" Jones is in for the save and he hit the first batter.

Kerrigan

05-18-2008, 12:27 AM

My Rangers are at .500!!

Who didn't see this one coming?? *raises hand*

ElvisL1ves

05-18-2008, 08:10 AM

I seriously can't think of a reason that the hitting blight would hit the AL only. If ANYTHING, you'd think that the AL would always be the hitting king.If the AL had been more dependent on juicing than the NL, then it ought to show more of a dropoff without it.

FoieGrasIsEvil

05-18-2008, 07:13 PM

Reds sweep Cleveland! Winners of 6 in a row, they now take their resurgence to LA to play the Dodgers. Redleggers traditionally suck against the West Coast, so I hope we can at least come home just above .500.

Man, we took it to Lee and Carmona! Looks like that trade for Hamilton (Volquez) is really paying off! Volquez now has the best ERA in baseball at 1.22 or something, is 7-1 and is top three in MLB in strikeouts!

I'm starting to believe again, although we're still 20-23...

dalej42

05-19-2008, 07:20 AM

Ok, time for me to stop bashing Randy Johnson. He was outstanding yesterday.

On the other hand, the Milwaukee Brewers look like an absolute train wreck. A team with that much talent just shouldn't be playing so poorly.

Ned Yost will be gone by July unless things turn around very quickly.

What Exit?

05-19-2008, 07:26 AM

A bad week for Yankee fans. Our team lost 3 of 4 to the Rays and 2 of 2 to the Mets. The only bright spot is that A-Rod should return tomorrow and maybe our offense will wake up a bit.

Bayard

05-19-2008, 07:35 AM

The two walk-off finishes by the Cards against the Rays this weekend were pretty exciting. They're still two games back of the Cubs, but with a series against the woeful Padres coming up, and the Cubs and Houston in for a mutual bloodletting, maybe the Cards can slip back into first. Too bad the games are on the west coast and I won't be able to follow them live. The Cards stranded about 900 runners this weekend, which I gotta think is some kind of fluke. Hopefully they'll snap out of it before they travel to LA this weekend.

Cluricaun

05-19-2008, 08:39 AM

We had a nice 10 game home stand ending this weekend. Soriano is on fire, he's the one man hitting machine, let's see if he can keep it going on this 6 game road trip. We've got a winning percentage of .614, second only to Arizona at .636, so look at that, the Cubbies have the second best record in baseball! Sure, we're only a game up on the Redbirds, but things have been working nicely. I think that Ryan Dempster could pass Zambrano as our "ace" if Z doesn't get his head back in the game though.

cards

05-19-2008, 09:52 AM

Bayard

05-19-2008, 09:59 AM

I'm glad I only sipped the Kool Aide. Even though the Cards took the last two from the Rays, in the past 10 days, some of their flaws have started to show. Starting pirching isn't looking as strong as the start of the season, the bullpen is showing signs of strain, leaving a LOT of runners on base, etc.

And those darn Cubbies actually look like they might be able to make a serious run. I'm starting to hear it from my Cub fan friends, they're gaining confidence! The end of the world is nigh. :eek:
La-la-la-la-la... I can't hear you!

Yeah, starting pitching, which looked like such a bright spot earlier, is looking pretty mediocre now. On a happier note, Chris Perez looked good yesterday. I wonder if he has a future as the closer, or if he'll get smacked around once hitters see him a few times. And, can we somehow get Ludwick in the lineup twice?

mazinger_z

05-19-2008, 10:56 AM

WSox back in first, wow! I was traveling when this thread came up, so I didn't make this prediction in the pre-season thread, but I think the World Series will be between the Cubs and the Tigers. At this rate, it looks like I'll be half right. I would like to see Cubs and Sox, and I would take off work and stay in Chicago during the entire series to see that.

Arizona still manages to impress me. I didn't think they would be that good this year. Also, the same with the Rays. I really should follow off-season more.

Hawkeyeop

05-19-2008, 11:13 AM

Cluricaun

05-19-2008, 11:18 AM

I would like to see Cubs and Sox, and I would take off work and stay in Chicago during the entire series to see that.

The city would burn........

Thudlow Boink

05-19-2008, 11:25 AM

leaving a LOT of runners on baseAcoording to today's Sports section, "The Cardinals lead the major leagues by a wide margin in runners stranded."

ElvisL1ves

05-19-2008, 06:58 PM

At least they're getting on base. Lotsa teams would love to have that problem.

Wonder how much Bartolo Colon has left? We're about to find out, Boston fans ...

cmkeller

05-19-2008, 08:39 PM

ElvisL1ves:

At least they're getting on base. Lotsa teams would love to have that problem.

Such as the Royals, who just got no-hit by John Lester of Boston. Crap.

ElvisL1ves

05-19-2008, 08:49 PM

Who was that with the final out against Cancerboy? A guy named Collapse-o?

Telemark

05-19-2008, 08:50 PM

Such as the Royals, who just got no-hit by John Lester of Boston. Crap.
Woo hoo! Two no-nos from the young kids in two seasons.

Mumio

05-19-2008, 08:51 PM

Yay, John Lester pitched a no-hitter tonight for the Red Sox win over Kansas City!!!

John DiFool

05-19-2008, 08:52 PM

Just when this team, or anybody one it (yeah, fave team), convinces me that it/they can't possibly do anything else to amaze me, they prove me wrong. Enjoy it, savor it, drink it in deeply, fellow Sawx fans, as this is indeed the Golden Age.

Hi, Neighbor!

05-19-2008, 09:30 PM

Ah, I dropped Lester from my fantasy team roster a few weeks back. I knew I should have given him some more time...

RickJay

05-19-2008, 09:57 PM

Acoording to today's Sports section, "The Cardinals lead the major leagues by a wide margin in runners stranded."
This isn't an uncommon feature of teams with high on base percentages that don't hit a lot of home runs. But that said, generally speaking, good offenses lead the league in runners left on base, and bad offenses don't. I mean, it kind of HAS to be that way, right? If you're a good team you'll have a lot of innings were you score runs and end up with guys on. You can't end every rally with a home run.

The Cardinals are hitting a little worse with men on than without but it's just random chance. Contrast this with the Blue Jays, who are hitting .223 with runners on, hit badly with runners on LAST year, and hit badly with runners on the year before. It's actually now beyond the statistical likelihood of being a fluke; the team is legitimately flawed in some way.

Tazmanian Devil

05-19-2008, 11:21 PM

Who was that with the final out against Cancerboy? A guy named Collapse-o? Alberto Collaspo.

DSYoungEsq

05-20-2008, 07:19 AM

Ah, my Cubbies! Excellent game last night against the Astros, and did y'all catch that catch that Edmonds made? Almost makes me happy we have the rat-sucking Cardinal bastard on our team now! :D

They also replayed a catch he made in Center as an Angel years ago that I had never seen before. Probably one of the all time greatest catches I've ever seen anyone make, laid out diving AWAY from home plate, catching a ball going over his head, then sliding onto the warning track. Amazing. Compared to that catch, last nights over the wrong shoulder basket job while starting up the hill in center field was a piece of cake.

cards

05-20-2008, 07:58 AM

Ah, my Cubbies! Excellent game last night against the Astros, and did y'all catch that catch that Edmonds made? Almost makes me happy we have the rat-sucking Cardinal bastard on our team now! :D

See, now this just goes to my point about Cubbie fans getting all cocky and happy, I swear there'll be no living with them. One of my Cub fan friends called me last night to tell me this is their year. Of course, they manage to crush his spirtit every year, so the natural order of the universe is eventually restored.

Cluricaun

05-20-2008, 08:41 AM

Ah, my Cubbies! Excellent game last night against the Astros, and did y'all catch that catch that Edmonds made? Almost makes me happy we have the rat-sucking Cardinal bastard on our team now! :D

Did you catch the size of the bruise on Edmonds ankle after fouling that ball into himself last night? Jeez, that looks like it smarts a little. But you're right, it didn't seem to hamper him scrambling up that stupid berm that the Astro's have in center field. Edmonds might just be the extra little something that gives us the big push over the playoffs.

But the real story last night for me was Geovany Soto's inside the park homer. Damned if that kid doesn't have some wheels on him too, he positively flew around those bases. Geo, I'm sorry that I said it looks like you wear eyeliner. You're alright in my book.

A no hitter and an inside the parker on the same night? Baseball is a gift to us all.

cmkeller

05-20-2008, 03:19 PM

ElvisL1ves:

Who was that with the final out against Cancerboy? A guy named Collapse-o?

The surprising thing is that Alberto Callaspo almost never strikes out. I was very much not expecting him to do that to end the game. But Lester was just on fire last night.

RickJay

05-20-2008, 07:15 PM

Asimovian

05-20-2008, 07:24 PM

RickJay

05-20-2008, 07:30 PM

Huh? I listen to the home games all the time on MLB Radio.
All Blue Jay home games are blacked out in Canada as part of MLB's "home territory blackout" policy.

Asimovian

05-20-2008, 07:38 PM

All Blue Jay home games are blacked out in Canada as part of MLB's "home territory blackout" policy.From what I've always understood (and from what I'm reading on MLB's site right now), there aren't supposed to be any blackouts for the gameday audio. You've got me baffled. I see where it applies to you for TV, but not for radio.

Just to be clear, I'm talking about subscribing to MLB Gameday Audio, not listening to streaming audio through your local radio station's website.

mhendo

05-20-2008, 09:35 PM

The Blue Jays aren't on TV. I could gete mlb.tv to watch them online.. except mlb.tv doesn't let you watch local games.

I'd listen to the game online, but they don't let you do that either.

It's like they're trying to drive fans away.Yeah, it sucks. I've never bothered with the audio, but i still think it's ridiculous that a subscription video service like this is blocked in the home market. I mean, how many viewers would it really drag away from the cable stations and the networks that show baseball? It really pisses me off.

On a brighter note, the Orioles just crushed the Yankees 12-2, helped by a 7-run first inning that came on the back of a crucial two-out error by Jeter. Mussina was out after two-thirds of an innings, giving up 5 hits and 2 walks, although only 1 earned run.*

Daniel Cabrera went 7 innings, giving up 5 hits and no walks. Over his last 8 starts, he's averaged fewer than 2 walks per start, and a total of 3 walks in his last 4 starts. I'm really starting to believe he might have fixed his biggest problem.

* The first inning was a perfect example of how poor an indication the Earned Runs statistic sometimes is. While Mussina was only charged with 1 earned run due to Jeter's error, he gave up a walk, a double, a single, and a triple AFTER the error. I don't care what the official scoresheet says, some of the runs that scored after the error were down to Mussina.