Doperville Mafia - New Players Welcome!

[Amblydoper]

So you keep hearing about this great game called Mafia (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=461435&highlight=mafia), and you think you want to play? Feel intimidated by the larger games with the die-hard players? Maybe you just want to get your feet wet before stepping it up against the big boys?

Well, this is the game for you! I am now taking sign-ups for Doperville Mafia. New and inexperienced players are welcome to join, as are veterans of the game, who would like to help teach the next generation of Mafia players. As I understand, NAF1138 and USCDiver will be starting another game (Cecilvania) for more experienced players very soon. If there is still interest for a third game after that, I may be willing to start another round.

This will be a medium sized game, limited to 12-16 players, but it still requires a significant time commitment. Expect the game to last 2 months. Active participation is required.

Post your desire to join the game, or sign up as a replacement. I have already promised a few people a spot in the game, and the remaining spots will be given by lottery. Sign up will end tonight (5/9/08) at 11:59PM Mountain Time. The Game will begin once all players have confirmed their role assignments.

Current Sign-up List
anyrose
Zsofia
peekercpa
Thing Fish
Oredigger77
bufftabby
10 spaces available

[cckerberos]

I'm interested. I've played the game IRL, but never online.

[twickster]

I'd love to play.

[RyJae]

I'd like to play. :)

[The Unkempt One]

I would like to play!

[peekercpa]

Im in. Count my participation in Simpletown as going backwards as opposed to being contributory in any meaningful way.

WTH - can only get better, right?

[peekercpa]

And if RyJaye claims miller it's going to be whole lot of :dubious:

[twickster]

And if RyJaye claims miller it's going to be whole lot of :dubious:
Oh, geez, are y'all gonna keep saying stuff that doesn't mean diddly to the rookies?

[peekercpa]

Oh, geez, are y'all gonna keep saying stuff that doesn't mean diddly to the rookies?

Just skim Simpletown. Afterwards make careful notes of what I do - then do opposite.

[twickster]

I have no interest in reading previous threads -- is that going to be a handicap? (serious question.)

[Hoopy Frood]

Count me in, but if there's a newbie who wants in instead, give them priority.

I don't want to be in the sublist though, should a newbie bump me out.

[peekercpa]

I have no interest in reading previous threads -- is that going to be a handicap? (serious question.)

Nah, I had skimmed a couple before my first game and it didn't do me a lick of good.

[fluiddruid]

Heya, put me at the bottom of the list. I'm happy to wait for Cecilvania, and to let the newbies have a go, but I don't want the game to stall due to lack of players, so I'll play if a slot needs filling.

[Koldanar]

Heya, put me at the bottom of the list. I'm happy to wait for Cecilvania, and to let the newbies have a go, but I don't want the game to stall due to lack of players, so I'll play if a slot needs filling.

I feel the same as fluid...I'm waiting for Cecilvania, but I'm willing to play here if it's needed...place me low, or make me a sub if you fill :)

[anyrose]

do I have to confirm now? or just after you tell me who I'm playing?

[bufftabby]

Woo! Killing scum is awesome! I'm not a total newb (2 games + 1 watched)but I definitely wouldn't consider myself a veteran, so no Cecilvania for me. I think this will be a lot of fun. We had all better post a lot, so that I have something to do at work between calls!

[The Unkempt One]

I have no interest in reading previous threads -- is that going to be a handicap? (serious question.)

Same here. Mafia sounds really fun, but I have to admit that I know next to nothing about it. I hope that the experienced players will be really patient with us noobs.

[Amblydoper]

The Player List
anyrose
Zsofia
peekercpa
Thing Fish
Oredigger77
bufftabby

The Lottery List
cckerberos
twickster
RyJae
The Unkempt One

The "If There is Room List"
Hoopy Frood
fluiddruid
Koldanar

As it stands, there is room for everyone to play.

You Don't need to read the 30 page threads to learn the mechanics of this game, but reading older games can be helpful for developing strategy. Just skim through one day's discussion if you are curious.

Also, check out the Mafia Wiki (http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Newbie_Guide) for useful information. Just remember that some details change from game to game, so it is important to read the rules (which I will post later).

[Koldanar]

I figured I'd just add a few things here so that the newer players would understand some of the terms that are bound to come up during play.

WIFOM : Wine in front of me. Based on the scene in The Princess Bride, where Vizzini and Wesley face off over poisoned wine. Basically, a player second-guessing actions based on what he or she thinks the other player might do.

FOS : Finger of suspicion. Some use it, some don't. It's an un-official way of saying "I definitely don't trust that person".

EBWOP : Edit by way of posting (I think?). Correcting yourself in a new post; edits around here are frowned upon.

Others that know, feel free to fill in here too; those are the ones that kept catching me as I was starting playing (and please, correct me if I am wrong)

[Blaster Master]

Sure, I'm down for another round, but if the Cecilvania game will be geared toward experienced players and will be starting soon, I'm willing to step out if some new blood wants a spot, otherwise, I'd like in.

[Blaster Master]

For those who are new to the game, reading previous games may help you understand how we tend to play, but it's really not necessary. When I'm in games, I always like to refresh people on general strategy and such. Sometiems we'll make mentions to other games, but it will usually be something you can grasp as a concept without actually reading the thread. For example, we might make mention of how storyteller did such and such in M2 as an example of scum behavior, thus you'd only need to know the generalization of the behavior and not necessarily the specifics (besides, if it's wrong, people will argue about it).

Beyond that, I give two words of advice. First, this can be a time consuming game, particularly early when there's a lot of people in it, and it can last a couple months or more. You're not expected to post 50 times a day like some people will, but it will mean you need to make sure you can at least make a commitment to keep up and make posts. Second, it can rise a lot of emotions, particularly frustration, so try to remember that's part of the game, and just have fun.

It really is a blast to play.

[bufftabby]

It really is a blast to play. Aw, you just like an excuse to crunch numbers. ;)

I gotta say, I'm way more psyched for the beginning of this game than I was for the last one. I had fun playing recruitment, but things just didn't go well enough for scum in that game for me to really feel the force of competing against some hard-ass scum in full force.

[Zsofia]

bufftabby, I was reading Simpletown as it happened (the only one I've read start to finish, so I haven't watched a complicated one) and I was dead on sure you were scum for, like, the last third. I think maybe I suck at Mafia. :)

[Hal Briston]

If anyone wants to do any catching up, the Mafia "required" reading (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=9703356) thread is a very good reference for a newbie to get background on many of the commonly-mentioned events.

[pprgrl]

Aw, I really want to play, but I'm going to be moving at the end of the month, and that will most likely keep me away from the computer for more than a few days. Is this game going to have the at least 3 posts per day rule?

[peekercpa]

Aw, I really want to play, but I'm going to be moving at the end of the month, and that will most likely keep me away from the computer for more than a few days. Is this game going to have the at least 3 posts per day rule?


Typically (and I certainly will not speak for our great and generous MOD - long live the capriciousness that exists outside of our experience) the post requirents are per Day not day.

And True Newbs - FCS don't drink a beer that bufftabby offers you unless you see the bartender pour it.

[peekercpa]

And to expand on what Koldenar said. There are also smudges and snuggles (patent pending).

BlasterMaster: Is that gonna be a per use fee or just some sort of lifetime payment?

[Amblydoper]

Aw, I really want to play, but I'm going to be moving at the end of the month, and that will most likely keep me away from the computer for more than a few days. Is this game going to have the at least 3 posts per day rule?
Because this is a game for newer players, I am not making a rule that requires a specific number of posts per game-day, but active participation is required.... Rules preview...

6. Active participation is required. Inactive players may be prodded by email or PM at the request of any other player. Failure to respond to this prod will result in replacement...

So, pprgrl, if its only a few days that you won't have net access, we can work around that, but more then 3 or 4 days would delay the game for everyone else. Please only sign up if you think you can manage that.

[bufftabby]

bufftabby, I was reading Simpletown as it happened (the only one I've read start to finish, so I haven't watched a complicated one) and I was dead on sure you were scum for, like, the last third. I think maybe I suck at Mafia. :)
'Salright. My absolute certainty of RoOsh's scummitude more than makes up for your misplaced suspicion. I don't usually get so vehement against suspecterd scum, because I've been wrong so often. But I knew for the last 2 or 3 Days that he had to be scum. Also, see my voting record in Recruitment. I lynched so many damn Townies it was ridiculouspants!

[bufftabby]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, peekercpa, you're the one with "pee" in your name! :o

[peekercpa]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, peekercpa, you're the one with "pee" in your name! :o


But if we break your name down into something more recognizable it becomes bat buffy B. Scum tell out the wazoo.

[pprgrl]

So, pprgrl, if its only a few days that you won't have net access, we can work around that, but more then 3 or 4 days would delay the game for everyone else. Please only sign up if you think you can manage that.

Thank you for the clarification. I have no idea how long I'll be without internet access, so I guess I'll just wait for the next newbie game.

[Koldanar]

And to expand on what Koldenar said. There are also smudges and snuggles (patent pending).



Arrrg! Why is my name so hard to get :( It's a simple, easy to remember dwarf name people, come on! (lots on the off board game were misspelling during play...thats where the vehemence comes from)

[peekercpa]

Arrrg! Why is my name so hard to get :( It's a simple, easy to remember dwarf name people, come on! (lots on the off board game were misspelling during play...thats where the vehemence comes from)


My bad. Come on and test the water pprgrl. I promise that I and Coldanar will help you along.

[Koldanar]

My bad. Come on and test the water pprgrl. I promise that I and Coldanar will help you along.


I hate you. Thats a scum tell.
















:D

[The Unkempt One]

Cool. I have been reading through the previous mafia thread to try to figure out how this game works. I am on page 8 now, and I can't wait to see who is a townie and who is scum. This new game should be really fun!

[peekercpa]

CoG888

Is this an NC17 or PG13 game

Basic question: Do I have to say "what up dude" or can I go straight to "stick it and break it off"?

[ToeJam]

bufftabby, I was reading Simpletown as it happened (the only one I've read start to finish, so I haven't watched a complicated one) and I was dead on sure you were scum for, like, the last third. I think maybe I suck at Mafia. :)

No no... you would have been PERFECT for that game.
:sigh: Where were all these people when I needed them! :(

[peekercpa]

I hate you. Thats a scum tell.

Vote Collender.


OMGUS. Let's get the newbs up to speed.

[dotchan]

In to sub, because I'm definitely planning to get myself lynched in...er, I mean, sign up for Cecilville. :D

One of these days I'll have more games where I survive to the end, I swear...

[Koldanar]

Vote Collender.


OMGUS. Let's get the newbs up to speed.


Peebuttcpa , thats an awful move right there...motivation? :)

[peekercpa]

Let's play this flipper. Toss the dice and send the PM's.

[bufftabby]

But if we break your name down into something more recognizable it becomes bat buffy B. Scum tell out the wazoo.

Heh, I like Koldanar's peebuttcpa, but I'm gonna play your letter game, peepacker! :D

Koldanar, what kind of sick bastard would allow "pee" and "butt" to be used so close together in a sentence?! If you don't watch out, the two might form some sort of union, and that would be AWFUL and DISGUSTING, just like anyone who would mention such a thing. Sheesh. Some people...

[Amblydoper]

The Player List
anyrose
Zsofia
peekercpa
Thing Fish
Oredigger77
bufftabby
cckerberos
twickster
RyJae
The Unkempt One
Hoopy Frood
fluiddruid
Koldanar
Blaster Master

The Substitute List (still room for more)
dotchan

Rules
1. The game will begin in the Day Phase. All players will discuss and decide upon a suspect to lynch, by voting. A player will be lynched if they have a plurality when the deadline is reached. In the event of a tie, the moderator will decide on a victim at random.
2. After the deadline, no additional vote changes will count. I will post the official outcome of the day, and the Night Phase will begin immediately. No game related chat is allowed in the thread during the Night Phase.
3. During the Night Phase, players that have a Night Role, including the mafia, will send the name of their target to the moderator. If the Night Phase deadline is reached before a name is submitted, the moderator will assume that the choice is “No Target.” In the case of the mafia, this means that no kill will be made that night.
4. The Day Phase will begin after a post from the moderator to announce any deaths that occurred during the night. The Day Phase will continue as before, until the deadline.
5. Players are not allowed to discuss the game outside of the thread. Only members of the mafia are allowed to discuss the game during the Night Phase. A secret Mafia only forum will be provided for that. Posting from non-playing people is discouraged. Dead players may post a farewell, but nothing else.
6. Active participation is required. Inactive players may be prodded by email or PM at the request of any other player. Failure to respond to this prod will result in replacement. Players may request a replacement if they can’t commit to the game. Deadlines may be extended while the replacement reads the thread and catches up.
7. Do not quote your role assignments in the thread. You may paraphrase, though.

Please vote like this, in bold and blue color, on a line all by itself.
Vote PlayerName

Please unvote the same way, but in red.
Unvote PlayerName

Messages to the moderator should be in green, or sent by PM..

The Game will begin as soon as all players have confirmed their role assignments
Good Luck, and Happy Killing!

[Blaster Master]

And to expand on what Koldenar said. There are also smudges and snuggles (patent pending).

BlasterMaster: Is that gonna be a per use fee or just some sort of lifetime payment?

I'll only ask for a 1 time payment of your eternal soul.

BTW, I believe capybara as the copyright on smudge so, you'll need to talk to her about that one.

[Blaster Master]

Oh boy, I'm on when the game starts... I'm going to begin with a random vote:

Vote Koldanar

[Blaster Master]

Let us also start with some theorizing. There's 14 people in the game. So I'd estimate about 4 scum would be balanced, 3 is possible but unlikely, and 5 is just too many. I would also consider it likely that there is a Doctor, Detective, and group of Masons, but as it's closed, I wouldn't consider any of those as a given, only likely. So, my guess...

4 Scum (no Godfather), 1 Detective, 1 Doctor, 2 Masons, 6 Vanilla Townies
or
4 Scum (with Godfather), 1 Detective, 1 Doctor, 3 Masons, 5 Vanilla Townies

Both are intuitively well balanced and perfectly balanced according to JSexton's Formula (18:18 for the first and 20.5:20.5 for the second).

[Blaster Master]

Oops... I realized I started a LITTLE too fast, I saw the post and just wanted to get cranking... sorry guys.

[Blaster Master]

Erm, that said, just to reduce any confusion, I'll unvote just to make sure it's clear when it does start so no one gets confused. :smack:

Unvote Koldanar

[Amblydoper]

Role assignments have been sent. Just so you all know here is the Townie Role PM.

PlayerName
Townie
You are a Townie. You were pissed when you found that someone broke in to the bakery and stole all the pies. You were enraged when they killed Cecil Adams. Now, you must bring justice to the killers, by voting to lynch suspicious town members. Be careful with this power. Once the deadline is reached, the player with the most votes will be killed.

You may not discuss the game outside of the Game Thread.

You will win when you and the other townies have killed every member of the Mafia. You win as a team, even if you are dead.

[Amblydoper]

Welcome to Doperville, a small village of 14 people on the east bank of the Squid River. The town is normally quite peaceful, but lately, disturbing events and rumors of evil have been defiling this innocent place. The most horrible event of late is the mysterious death of one Cecil Adams , the town know-it-all. Yesterday at a town meeting, called to discuss the recent break-in at the town bakery, Cecil boasted with haughty confidence that he suspected a few devious Dopers. The furious mob demanded proof. “Cite, Cite!” they chanted, urging Cecil to reveal his source of information. Cecil requested one night of investigation before he revealed the names of the suspects, fearing that this angry mob would take matters into their own hands, and lynch anyone he mentioned.

“Cecil is never wrong,” announced an anonymous doper from the crowd, “He will provide us with names in the morning!”

“And they will hang!” cried another Doper, “And we will throw their corpses to the man-eating squids in the river!”

The crowd howled with morbid delight, as bloodlust filled the hall. Satisfied with their macabre plan of justice, the meeting moved to the tavern, across the street. The bartender poured pints of ale and shots of bourbon, and the people slowly forgot all their troubles. Stealthily, Cecil slipped out and prepared for his night of surveillance.

As the morning light came, the hung-over Dopers staggered out of their homes and gathered in the town square. Cecil’s disfigured body leaned against the trunk of an oak tree, surrounded by a puddle of dry, sticky blood. The Dopers held a moment of silence for their beloved master, and then sat town to decide who was responsible.

---

You, as the surviving town members, must decide whom to hold accountable for this hideous crime. There are killers amongst you, and they will likely try to shift blame onto the innocents, to save themselves. The town must decide democratically who to lynch, before the end of the day. One Doper will be lynched each day, and after their death, their alignment will be revealed. As darkness sets over the town, each doper will retire to their own home, and will not discuss the matter further, until morning. The killers will likely take another victim during the night. You will then decide on the next suspect to lynch. This will continue until all the killers have been dealt with, or the deaths of innocents leave the killers in the majority, and eradicate everyone.

---

The game officially starts when everyone has confirmed.

[peekercpa]

C'mon guys, it's been like three hours already. Let's get on with the neck stretching portion of the game.

[peekercpa]

Peebuttcpa , thats an awful move right there...motivation? :)


Follow my logic and all will be clear my friend.

A collender is typically used to drain noodles

Italians eat a lot of noodles

Mafia (scum) are traditionally Italian

Koldanar versus Collender. Cripes they sound almost exactly the same.

'Nuff said methinks

capybara gets credit for smudge - BlasterMaster gets credit for snuggle and I will go down in history with the Noodle Gambit.

[Zsofia]

Confirm! Confirm! I am so freaking excited to play, so would the rest of you just get on it?

[Hoopy Frood]

Arrrg! Why is my name so hard to get :( It's a simple, easy to remember dwarf name people, come on! (lots on the off board game were misspelling during play...thats where the vehemence comes from)

You do realize, of course, that pointing this fact out means that we all are going to start intentionally slaughtering your name now, don't you Cold Dinner?

[The Unkempt One]

I'm here! Let's get this thing started!

[peekercpa]

You do realize, of course, that pointing this fact out means that we all are going to start intentionally slaughtering your name now, don't you Cold Dinner?


I think the official reply should have been more along the lines of Colddinner. Just so it jumps off the page a little more, you know.

Made me chuckle none the less just not to the extent of BlasterMaster's Al Gore comment.

[twickster]

Okay -- I'm here. I'll stand over here with all the other newbies while the veterans trade in jokes.

God, it's like the first day of junior high, only worse, because there's a killer among us.

Wait -- adolescent girls vs. mafia scum ... let me think about this for a while.

[RyJae]

Does this mean Cecil won't be answering the plane on treadmill question I sent him? :(


On with the game, or game on!


I am sick of losing. (2 games in, 2 losses, I suck) I'll get this ball rolling by throwing a totally random thought out, cold pizza rules!














*game didn't actually start yet or did it?

[anyrose]

::rubbing my eyes as I stumble around in search of caffeine::

I can't think yet. I need coffee.

You know, Zsofia's name sounds italian. But if you want to play logic games then

RyJae has "rye" at the beginning.
Rye is a type of bread that the bakery sold
Therefore RyJae stole the pies and killed Cecil

or not

I have to visit my sister in Shelbyville today. I may be back later, I may not be back until tomorrow.

[The Unkempt One]

It seems like a bakery theft would be at least a two person job, and anyrose just admitted to having a sister...coincidence? Maybe, maybe not...

[bufftabby]

I'm ready. Let's do this thing. I gotta say, peekercpa's Noodle Gambit is one of the most sophisticated strategies I've ever encountered.

And Koldanar? Go back to Moria, dwarfboy. Didn't you hear? The Third Age is so totally over.

[peekercpa]

I know that the game has not officially started so this may be premature. Do we need to get the eventual day one random vote disussion keyed up on the turntable?

[peekercpa]

I have to visit my sister in Shelbyville today. I may be back later, I may not be back until tomorrow.

And I continue to be amazed at the diversity of this crowd. I've heard of Shelbyville but it seems a little mythical (kind of like Midland/Odessa). In the sense that I kind of think that they exist but have never actually met someone who claims to be from there or anyone that admits they will be going there.

Absolutely fascinating stuff.

[Koldanar]

Checking in for now guys...got a 2 year olds party to go to tonight. I'll come back later; all you name manglers have something to answer for!

[peekercpa]

Okay -- I'm here. I'll stand over here with all the other newbies while the veterans trade in jokes.

God, it's like the first day of junior high, only worse, because there's a killer among us.

Wait -- adolescent girls vs. mafia scum ... let me think about this for a while.


And typically editing of any kind is frowned upon just to let you know. Not junior modding because ultimately it's CoG888's call but historically it's been a crime punishable (sp?) by death.

And because the pronouns always get hosed early on in these games I ask the question: be you plain M and M or be you M and M with nuts.

I be the latter although the only function they are apparently serving at this time is putting me in a pool with a shorter life expectancy.

[USCDiver]

Just a brief announcement for any of the veterans who want to play but can't do two at once; I expect to get Cecilvania started early next week (I'm out of town at the moment).

(Cross posted in the 'Mafia mod' thread)

[anyrose]

And I continue to be amazed at the diversity of this crowd. I've heard of Shelbyville but it seems a little mythical (kind of like Midland/Odessa). In the sense that I kind of think that they exist but have never actually met someone who claims to be from there or anyone that admits they will be going there.

Absolutely fascinating stuff.
:D:D I was in character! It was a euphamism for all the errands I had to run! :D:D

[peekercpa]

:D:D I was in character! It was a euphamism for all the errands I had to run! :D:D


Fucking whooshed already.

Is there a bridge involved, FCS.

I've taken the liberty of this being the director's cut as opposed to being the theatrical release.

CoG888 is free to re-direct me.

[peekercpa]

Oh and real life will intrude for a couple of days late in the real world next week. My second oldest daughter will graduate from high school on the 15th. She's in a boarding school north of Phoenix but not close enough to Sedona to have any frickin' impact. Just want to give a heads up that if I fall off the bus for a couple of days late next week that it was anticipated.

I will try to stay in touch during those three days but will be limited to the vagueness that central Arizona interet access can be.

If I get subbed out for lack of participation then I will fully understand.

Until then I will wait for our cock sucking, mother fucking, all knowing, all structuring, all caring and beneficent MOD to pull the trigger.

My flippin' hammies are getting crampy being in this start position for so long.

If I was Bonds I'd need another shot of the clear about now.

[bufftabby]

As long as we're presenting it in widescreen, I'm all for this being unrated, just not straight-to-dvd.

[Oredigger77]

Hey just checking in. My bet is we won't start until Monday morning when then work crowd can check in. Once this prognostication pays off I expect all my further predictions to be respected and to be promoted to town wizard.

[Amblydoper]

Just waiting for one more confirm to start.

[peekercpa]

As long as we're presenting it in widescreen, I'm all for this being unrated, just not straight-to-dvd.

C'mon dudette: We've got me - pee, We've got you - buff and tabby (if you can't figure out the last one go back short bussing) and the Colddinner LOAD. Sounds like a winner.

[anyrose]

I should probably state that during the week, my ability to post will depend on the functionality of (or rather the lack thereof) the company's firewall - so you may only hear from in the mornings and the late evenings

[peekercpa]

CoG888

Is it too early to start talking general strategy - or do we just need to sit like a bunch of clams until you blow the whistle

[Amblydoper]

All Confirms are in. Game on!
Day One ends Thursday, May 15th at 5:00 PM Mountain Time (7 Eastern)

[Blaster Master]

Alright... let's a gogo. Same random vote as previously. I won't bother to reitterate my role distribution guess either, since every can just go back and look.

Vote Koldanar

[bufftabby]

Sweet. It's on.

I don't necessarily like these Day One random votes, as they have a disturbing tendency to hit Town, but at least there's a chance to hit scum. A No Lynch vote seems like kind of a waste of a day for the Town, and pretty much creates a Night start.

I'll get a random vote on the table sometime in the next 24 hours, but I'd rather wait to see if anything scummy develops between now and then. Maybe we'll get lucky.

[Blaster Master]

Sweet. It's on.

I don't necessarily like these Day One random votes, as they have a disturbing tendency to hit Town, but at least there's a chance to hit scum. A No Lynch vote seems like kind of a waste of a day for the Town, and pretty much creates a Night start.

I'll get a random vote on the table sometime in the next 24 hours, but I'd rather wait to see if anything scummy develops between now and then. Maybe we'll get lucky.

Not necessarily targetted at bufftabby, but a random vote is purely a style choice and it is intended to kickstart conversation, conversation generates information, and information is good. If you don't like it, don't do it, but still say things, even if it's just general strategy or questions.

That all said, IMO, random votes are only really of any value until sufficient information exists to make non-random votes.

Also, since you mention it, a no-lynch is almost always a bad idea because, as you correctly point out, it's not much distinguishable from a Night start. Sure, we have discussion, but we don't have any real hard information or accountability without a lynch. And sure, it's statistically more likely to hit a townie than not, but that's technically true any Day during the game unless we have additional informaiton in the form of confirmed townies and/or scum.

I know I say this pretty much every time, but this is a game that pits a numerical advantage (the town) against an informational advantage (the scum), and the lynch is our most powerful weapon because it leverages our numerical advantage to either increase that advantage by killing scum or at least generate information. So the key is, even if we lynch scum, as long as we gain more of an edge in information than we lose in numbers, we're ahead of the game.

[cckerberos]

So the key is, even if we lynch scum, as long as we gain more of an edge in information than we lose in numbers, we're ahead of the game.
"even if we lynch scum"? :D

[peekercpa]

While I understand that Day one is pretty much a crap shoot I still don't totally agree that pure random is the best way to go. I'm going to play lynch the lurker until I have some baseline points. I mean, that strategy alone would have gotten two (three?) scum in Simpletown.

Since this is a game that takes a lot of time I don't want to stretch a participant who is at least trying as opposed to someone who is just laying back/under the radar type of thing.

Meh, my two cents.

[peekercpa]

Hey just checking in. My bet is we won't start until Monday morning when then work crowd can check in. Once this prognostication pays off I expect all my further predictions to be respected and to be promoted to town wizard.

Can you give me your picks for today's play off games so I can bet the other way. ;)

In the spirit of my last post while adding a touch of the random element I notice two players with no contribution. Therefore it be heads fluiddruid and tails Thing Fish. And the toss is a head. Therefore:

Vote fluiddruid

Since it's so early the commitment to this vote is equal to Elizabeth Taylor's commitment to "until death do we part" kind of thing.

[peekercpa]

"even if we lynch scum"? :D

But listen to what BlasterMaster is saying. Some things in this game are counter intuitive. For example you would think it would be in the town's best interest if the Detective were able to always get a scum read. But look at Simpletown where NAF1138's third read was scum. On the surface - whooppee. But if he would have read a live town then the game was over. We wouldn't have to have gone through two more Days of the whole RyJaye miller angst.

When it comes to selling a house: location location location

When it comes to Mafia: information information information

[twickster]

Okay -- so what do we do now? Hang out at the school bake sale to see who brings pie? I'm not much of a cook, so I think I'll bring Rice Krispies Treats (TM).

[The Unkempt One]

The game has started! Awesome!

My first vote is random, in the hopes of generating discussion and getting this whole thing rolling.

Vote Hoopy Frood

[Amblydoper]

Vote Count
Koldanar - 1
fluiddruid - 1
Hoopy Frood - 1

[peekercpa]

One thing I don't believe that has ever been approached in a heck of a lot of detail initially is the Mod running the game. One thing I picked up post Simpletown was that each Mod has their own style and that can influence game composition/dynamics.

I kind of broke Simpletown by pointing out a loophole. But I was absolutely convinced that sachertorte would enforce the letter of the rules. Therefore, I went ahead - good, bad or indifferent. At the end I thought he would be pissed but he responded more along the lines of "You found a loophole and took advantage of it, good for you" (that is a total paraphrase). If I would have thought that he would have wiggled even a little bit I would have never said a thing.

Does anyone know anything about CoG888? She/He doesn't have a heck of a lot of posts and not to offend our wonderful and all knowing Mod I don't think I've ever run across her/him in any thread.

I mean, ultimately we have to catch scum based on our interactions with each other. But would it be at all productive to try and get any type of edge based on the predisposition of the Mod, if any?

[peekercpa]

And just to toss a lollipop to the field. Can we get gender and how many games you have played: either on or off board.

Male - 1

[The Unkempt One]

Male - 0

[bufftabby]

Okay -- so what do we do now? Hang out at the school bake sale to see who brings pie? I'm not much of a cook, so I think I'll bring Rice Krispies Treats (TM).

Sorry, Twicks, the answer is a lot more sinister than that. We've gotta start killing each other, actually. Seeing as how those Rice Krispies Treatums are chock-full of sugar, I'm going to assume you're trying to kill me, and anyone else in this game whose insides go crazy when sugar comes along. I've got my eye on you!

[bufftabby]

NETA: buff's a two-timin' lady. (Meaning that I've played twice, not that I've got another game going on the side.)

[RyJae]

Happy Mothers Day to any mothers in here.





Since this is about random voting, which I totally agree is better than no lynch day 1, I used random.org put in 14 numbers based on the player list. (me included) it came back with #7 first. Then I said what the heck and I put everyones name in, and got the same person in the first spot! Random, or is it trying to tell me something? :p


vote cckerberos

Oh cckerberos explain yourself, why does random not like you? :smack:






*oog to peekercpa for whatever reason he is concerned he may hit on someone based on a confusing handle ;) *

RYan son
JAElyn daughter
I'm not the one celebrating Mothers Day today, my wife is.

[bufftabby]

Who would ever get your gender wrong, RyJae? Not me! (I could have sworn I read a thread where you mentioned your husband, but I bet it was some other Jae/Jay character. My memory can be rather meh.)

[twickster]

Female, my first game.

anyrose, because of the Shelbyville comment, which I'd never heard of, but Deanna Durbin was headed there in the movie I watched last night.

Is that random enough?

[peekercpa]

Happy Mothers Day to any mothers in here.

*oog to peekercpa for whatever reason he is concerned he may hit on someone based on a confusing handle ;) *

RYan son
JAElyn daughter
I'm not the one celebrating Mothers Day today, my wife is.



I should have led off with RyJaye's sentiments. Happy Mother's Day to all. My mom turns 85 next month and is still totally cool. My wife sets the standard for being fair and setting a reasonable expectation bar. How they are able to do all they do while putting up with my annoying habits is beyond me.

And the gender thing is just because the whole pronoun thing gets me confused. I get mental images based on usernames and when that image is totally wrong it's kind of a WTF moment.

And the Jaelyn name is cool. I've got a McKenzie and an Adelaide with two more generics so I am totally down with out of the mainstream naming conventions.

[Thing Fish]

Hello everyone, nice to meet...um, 9 or 10 of you. My name is Thing Fish, I am a male newbie (but I followed Simpletown obsessively and found my instincts worked pretty well there...we shall see).

twickster, I don't know how strict our mod is going to be, but I think you need to put not only your nominee's name in blue, but also the word "vote", and that should be on a separate line all its own. Unless you knew that, and you were trying to look like you were casting a vote which wouldn't really count, so you could deny responsibility....(cue ominous music) SCUMTELL!!!!
On the other hand, I agree that this anyrose is a suspicious character...after all, where do we find roses? On the graves of murder victims!!! She is taunting us with her very username! So, in order to put this fiendish florist on the spot while also thwarting twickster's scummy pseudo-vote plan and illustrating the proper voting format, I will

vote anyrose

Let's get this bandwagon rolling! Remember, next vote for anyrose is a scumtell!!

PS And RyJae, I find it very suspicious that you would wish everyone a Happy Mother's Day...what do people do on Mother's Day?? Give roses! So you are subtly trying to snuggle the dastardly anyrose?! Nice try, buddy, but I've got my eye on you!

[Hoopy Frood]

So I go to check the boards this morning to see if the game started, and try to post, to find out that my subscription expired.

Uh...huh? I don't remember getting an email about that.

So I go and look at my email. Ahhh...I see. They mailed the notice of expiration about 45 minutes ago. And they mailed it twice. The problem is, apparently my subscription expired sometime yesterday. Silly intarwebs.

Anyway, I advocate a "lynch-the-lurker" strategy on Day 1 myself. So for now, no vote, because the game just started, so there's really no way to see who's lurking at this point.

And for the Demographic questions:

Male. Played in 1 off-board game.

And as a heads up, I probably won't be around much on weekends, though I'll try to check in at least once.

[Koldanar]

While I agree with [b] BLaM [\b], random is a great way to get conversation going, I think it can be carried too far as well :) I generally don't do a random myself on day one unless no one else has.

Male - 5th game?

[Hoopy Frood]

Oh and re: ThingFish's post about 3rd vote being a scumtell.

That really doesn't apply these days. It's become such a well-known meme that at this point 3rd vote is (usually) a null tell. Even in newbie games.

[Thing Fish]

Oh, I thought I had to go, but I have time for one more post. To clarify, my post above is a kind of pseudo-random vote, which is the best we're going to be able to do on day 1. I do think it is good for people to get some kind of vote on the table early, obviously we are all just stumbling around in the dark waving our machetes around at this point.

I tend to think that the most important source of data in this game is voting records...I want to know who voted to lynch who, what their reasons were, and whether they switched. Of course, scum may vote to lynch scum, even leading the bandwagon, for the sake of gaining townie cred...but they are outnumbered and can't afford to pull that very often. Other than that, I lean toward lynching the lurky and those whose votes don't seem to follow any consistent logic. I think it would be pro-town if we could all share our general thoughts about strategy now, so we can later look back and see how consistent we have all been in following those strategies. Besides, it's not like we have much else to talk about.

PS Happy Mother's Day.

[bufftabby]

And the Jaelyn name is cool. I've got a McKenzie and an Adelaide with two more generics so I am totally down with out of the mainstream naming conventions.

Well, if you need any more, try out some of these (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9789497&postcount=68).

[Zsofia]

But listen to what BlasterMaster is saying. Some things in this game are counter intuitive. For example you would think it would be in the town's best interest if the Detective were able to always get a scum read. But look at Simpletown where NAF1138's third read was scum. On the surface - whooppee. But if he would have read a live town then the game was over. We wouldn't have to have gone through two more Days of the whole RyJaye miller angst.

When it comes to selling a house: location location location

When it comes to Mafia: information information information
Yeah, if you're Town. :) The Town can afford to give up some of its numerical advantage to get information, and confirmed town is almost always more valuable to Town than confirmed scum.

Female, this is my first game here but I'm also in another game elsewhere that refuses to get off the ground.

[peekercpa]

Well, if you need any more, try out some of these (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9789497&postcount=68).


Well thank god mama had some input. These would have been the kind of names that about 4 a.m. on a tequilla bender would have made sense. Then when you wake up in the morning you go crappy idea (kind of like - damn she looked hot last night).

[Thing Fish]

Question for the Mod: Are the Days and Nights going to end on a fixed schedule, or will there be some element of uncertainty?

[twickster]

twickster, I don't know how strict our mod is going to be, but I think you need to put not only your nominee's name in blue, but also the word "vote", and that should be on a separate line all its own. Unless you knew that, and you were trying to look like you were casting a vote which wouldn't really count, so you could deny responsibility....(cue ominous music) SCUMTELL!!!!

Nope, sheer ignorance. Thanks.

vote anyrose


So does that count as the third vote, or the second since the first was mine incorrectly cast, or was that half a vote and this therefore the second-and-a-half, or ....

Sigh. I suspect I'm not cut out for this game.

[cckerberos]

vote cckerberos

Oh cckerberos explain yourself, why does random not like you? :smack:
No doubt the site's programming has been subverted in an attempt to do harm to the Town cause. Perhaps they hacked the site, or perhaps there's a more sinister explanation. Examining the random.org site I note that they openly acknowledge that their random numbers are used for "gambling sites." Given the well-known connections between gambling and organized crime it would not surprise me in the least to learn that some of the scum here called in a few favors to ensure that any requests made from our town got "special treatment."

Obviously the solution is to use a more neutral RNG, such as that of randomizer.org, like I just did.

vote Oredigger77

[cckerberos]

Male - 3

Those were all off-line.

[bufftabby]

Random.org yielded for me:

vote The Unkempt One

I think this is the universe's way of telling you to clean up.

[The Unkempt One]

Random.org yielded for me:

vote The Unkempt One

I think this is the universe's way of telling you to clean up.

Never!!

[peekercpa]

No doubt the site's programming has been subverted in an attempt to do harm to the Town cause. Perhaps they hacked the site, or perhaps there's a more sinister explanation. Examining the random.org site I note that they openly acknowledge that their random numbers are used for "gambling sites." Given the well-known connections between gambling and organized crime it would not surprise me in the least to learn that some of the scum here called in a few favors to ensure that any requests made from our town got "special treatment."

Obviously the solution is to use a more neutral RNG, such as that of randomizer.org, like I just did.

[color=blue]vote Oredigger77[color]

And since we seem to be having some table manners type of input. I try to strip the color of quotes. I've never modded a game but think intuiatively that only having to look at colored active posts would be helpful. Of corse CoG888 hasn't entered bastard Mod status - Yet. In which case every flippin' response is going to be randomly blue or red bolded.

Having said that can someone pass the taters and gravy, please.

[Amblydoper]

Question for the Mod: Are the Days and Nights going to end on a fixed schedule, or will there be some element of uncertainty?
The plan is to end the Days on Thursday evening/afternoon, and end the nights on the weekend, like Simpletown. I am not inflexible though, and will consider requests for extensions. Keep in mind that, "We haven't decided yet!" is not a good enough request for an extension.

[Amblydoper]

Vote Count
anyrose - 2 (twickster, Thing Fish)
Koldanar - 1 (Blaster Master)
fluiddruid - 1 (peekercepa)
Hoopy Frood - 1 (The Unkempt One)
cckerberos - 1 (RyJae)
Oredigger77 - 1 (cckerberos)
The Unkempt One - 1 (bufftabby)

Not Voting
Oredigger77, Zsofia, anyrose, Hoppy Frood, fluiddruid, Oredigger77, Koldanar

[Zsofia]

I'm just sayin', Oredigger77 not voting twice... scummy? :)

As for me,

vote bufftabby

because I suspect in another thread that she's trying to convince me to become a cat lady who wears cat-related sweaters and cat earrings. Because they match.

[peekercpa]

Rule Clarification

Oh great and knowledgeable Mod (man behind the curtain) you state that In the event of a tie, the moderator will decide on a victim at random. Random from the whole field or random from the folks tied?

I don't want to see my skinny townie ass swing just 'cause a couple of other folks happen to get in a tied situation.

[anyrose]

Remember, next vote for anyrose is a scumtell!!Hell, Fishy, in my book any vote for me is a scumtell.

Vote Thing Fish

[peekercpa]

Hell, Fishy, in my book any vote for me is a scumtell.

Vote Thing Fish

And there you have it. Our first OMGUS vote. Now the game is truly afoot. Quickly Watson.

[bufftabby]

<snip>because I suspect in another thread that she's trying to convince me to become a cat lady who wears cat-related sweaters and cat earrings. Because they match.

Heh. I'm named after my cat here. Sometimes I meow when I'm surprised. What else would you expect as my advice?

[peekercpa]

And there you have it. Our first OMGUS vote. Now the game is truly afoot. Quickly Watson.


And I didn't strip the color. My flippin' bad.

[anyrose]

And there you have it. Our first OMGUS vote. Now the game is truly afoot. Quickly Watson.
pardon please, what means this "OMGUS"?



besides, you didn't really expect me to vote for myself, did you? careful..,or I'll change my vote. ;)

[anyrose]

oops - sorry - I edited - please forgive me.

[The Unkempt One]

OMGUS = Oh My God U Suck...aka you vote for me, I vote for you!

[peekercpa]

OMGUS = Oh My God U Suck...aka you vote for me, I vote for you!


What he said. And if anyone else edits their posts I am going to really get irritated and start posting much more frequently. Don't say I didn't warn you.

[twickster]

Why does it matter whether people edit their posts or not?

[Hoopy Frood]

pardon please, what means this "OMGUS"?



besides, you didn't really expect me to vote for myself, did you? careful..,or I'll change my vote. ;)

OMGUS: Oh My God You Suck!

A vote that's given purely because the votee voted for you first. The problem with OMGUS is that it helps town not a whit. There is no real pro-town rationale behind it, and it can't really be used when analyzing previous votes as an indication for anything. Basically, it's viewed as an annoyance and as a null-tell.

Though, on Day 1, OMGUS, IMO, isn't that big of a deal because it at least has some rationale behind it, which puts it above the random vote. The rationale usually comes down to either: 1) I'm town, and voting for me is a bad move so I'll vote for you because right now you're hurting town, or 2) I'm scum, and voting for me make me just want to target you because I really have no better reason.

In later Days, OMGUS should be avoided because it doesn't help town. Even in Day 1, it doesn't really add much, but as I said, neither do random votes. It's why I tend to favor a lynch the lurker strategy. At least it gets people talking more, which is what is needed for town to win. Scum don't want to draw attention to themselves, generally, so lurking works well for them, unless people are actively calling out the lurkers. I guess it's just a way of keeping everyone participating.

Of course, these are just my views. Other people no doubt have other approaches.

[Hoopy Frood]

Why does it matter whether people edit their posts or not?

Basically, two main reasons:

#1: People can make errors. They may reveal more than they originally intended in their posts. While typically not a problem for vanilla town, it is unfair in the case of town power roles and scum. If a town power role accidentally outs himself, scum get cheated out of vital information to them. If a scum accidentally outs himself, town gets cheated. Non-editing prevents this scenario.

#2: Editing screws with the history of a poster. Granted, in boards like this one where you can only edit for a limited amount of time, it's not too much of a deal. But in boards that allow edits indefinitely, someone can go back and change things to screw with the game when someone goes to analyze past posts. Once again, it violates the spirit of the game.

So, editing typically will get you mod-killed or replaced in any forum. Seeing as how many here are newbies, anyrose might get a pass for her glitch, particularly since she called herself on it, but ultimately that's up to our mod, and I have a feeling that any more edits will be dealt with harshly, as well they should.

[The Unkempt One]

I would be interested in hearing people talk about whether they prefer a random vote, or a "lynch the lurker" vote on day one.

To me it makes sense to do a random vote for day one, since I'm not sure that there is even a lot of room for lurking on the first day. A random vote has the potential to get everyone talking. However, I suppose that I could be convinced otherwise if the argument was sound.

[anyrose]

okay I get it. But if we're just randomizing right now, how do you know I didn't put all the names in a hat and Thing Fish's is the one I picked? It's the first vote.
I don't know, it seems to me OMGUS things happen in everyday life all the freakin' time. Why is it such a no-no in here? Are some of you maybe taking this game a bit too seriously?

[The Unkempt One]

okay I get it. But if we're just randomizing right now, how do you know I didn't put all the names in a hat and Thing Fish's is the one I picked? It's the first vote.
I don't know, it seems to me OMGUS things happen in everyday life all the freakin' time. Why is it such a no-no in here? Are some of you maybe taking this game a bit too seriously?

I don't think that it is a no-no, people seem do it all the time. Often times people have their reasons to vote for the person that voted for them, and other times they do it simply out of spite. Either way, the vote is yours, use it however you see fit.

[bufftabby]

okay I get it. But if we're just randomizing right now, how do you know I didn't put all the names in a hat and Thing Fish's is the one I picked? It's the first vote.
I don't know, it seems to me OMGUS things happen in everyday life all the freakin' time. Why is it such a no-no in here? Are some of you maybe taking this game a bit too seriously?

OMGUS is a legitimate terminology used to describe that sort of vote in a Mafia game. It doesn't necessarily mean that anyone's panties are unduly in a wad. It's not necessarily a "no-no", but it will likely be noted. Expect to see it again.

[peekercpa]

Why does it matter whether people edit their posts or not?

Pull up your chairs and I will tell you a story of things that happened long ago.

Once upon a time long ago when the scum were less prevalent and the town was trying to erase this scourge from the land there was a townsperson that spoke things that were unfathomable. He/She spoke of the transferrance of bad powers. Unfortunately for her/him a townie overheard this conversation (it was not a PM but posted normally). This was recorded on a thing called the internet. The bad person attempted to erase his sayings. Alas, the townie had seen his nefarious plottings. After some discussion the Mod from whom all blessings flow decided that the traitor's evidence could be presented to the town. After about two seconds the traitor was streached and scum he be. And all was well in the town.

So it is the beginning, so shall it be in the end.

Just don't edit your freaking posts - K?

[Thing Fish]

I disagree. I feel that OMGUS votes, especially on Day One, are always an infallibly reliable scumtell ;) , so my vote for anyrose is now vindicated.

And by the way, bufftabby, I don't trust you either! I see how you sit there for hours staring at me while I'm innocently swimming around in my little bowl. I know you always say you just want me to come out so you can snuggle with me, but I'm not buying it!! :p

Unkempt, I think that random votes can be a way of putting pressure not to lurk on people. Although it could well be a coincidence, for instance, I don't think anyrose had posted anything since the game started until I put the second vote on her. If she had continued not to say anything, that would strongly suggest that she was, if not scum, at least not the kind of Townie who was likely to make good contributions to our cause, and therefore a good lynch candidate. Mind you, posting a couple lines of OMGUS doesn't exactly convince me to move my vote off her, but it's a start.

[peekercpa]

I would be interested in hearing people talk about whether they prefer a random vote, or a "lynch the lurker" vote on day one.


I, personally, will be going lurker lynch. This seems to be a green game and I believe that the only way to develop some additional players for other games is to encourage discussion. This is only my second game and am truly interested to see how some of the fledglings stretch their wings. No matter what; say something and state your feelings. Other folks are going to give you shit but what the hey. It's only a game. I am not inclined to give the lurker/under the radar player a whole buch of wiggle room. I'd rather interact.

My two cents, of course.

And to quote BlasterMaster this is a blast.

[Amblydoper]

Rule Amendment: No editing posts.
Rule Clarification: "In the event of a tie, the moderator will decide on a victim at random." (from those that hold the tie)
And I think this goes without saying, but all SDMB rules apply as well.

[anyrose]

for instance, I don't think anyrose had posted anything since the game started until I put the second vote on her.Had you been paying attention to my earlier posts in this very thread, I'd said I had a ton of errands to do, cleverly couched in the phrase "going to Shelbyville". So, when I finally was able to post, I find that I am the victim of a dogpile-on-the-rabbit. I reacted accordingly.
I also stated, and will restate, lest you all think I am in hiding, awaiting the damned verdict, that my ability to post during the workday is entirely dependant on the non functioning of the company's firewall which is a rare occurance, indeed.
Add that to the fact that I have obligations in the real world most every evening, and I usually only post early in the morning (this is early for me) or well into Prime Time. :p

[Koldanar]

You know, I'm SO glad RoOsh isn't in this game (and if you're reading this one, :P!). If you go back and look, he has pages and PAGES in his posts. If there's any poster that can force you to scan a game, it's him.

Hoopy, how do you feel about lurkers later in game, rather than at the start? Generally as the game gets further, you don't gain as much information from them. With someone who participates, we can get a voting history, who they have and have not defended, and a general idea of where they were going. With a lurker (lets say, someone who votes, and pokes in for 1- 2 posts) with very little content, how can you get too much from it?

[Oredigger77]

Not Voting
Oredigger77, Zsofia, anyrose, Hoppy Frood, fluiddruid, Oredigger77, Koldanar


Ok so my prediction failed horribly but now that I get two votes does that mean I have a different superpowers? I'm thinking that I shall use this new awesome power to vote for . . . ::Closes eyes, points finger and spins in a circle, falls down and ends up points at self:: . . . Umm. . . never mind who needs to be random. As I am no longer lurking I think that voting for lurkers is the way to go, except on weekends. Because the fishing is amazing and I can't post and fish at the same time. :D

[Blaster Master]

While I understand that Day one is pretty much a crap shoot I still don't totally agree that pure random is the best way to go. I'm going to play lynch the lurker until I have some baseline points. I mean, that strategy alone would have gotten two (three?) scum in Simpletown.

Since this is a game that takes a lot of time I don't want to stretch a participant who is at least trying as opposed to someone who is just laying back/under the radar type of thing.

Meh, my two cents.

Fair enough, point. However, one must also note that random votes are only intended as a conversation started and should NEVER be where the vote ends up at the end of the Day. In fact, since you bring up Simpletown, that was one of the points I raised against zuma, was the fact that he made a random vote on Day One, and left it there the whole Day. That alone, however, isn't scummy IF he had later had a reason for leaving it there, but he did not.

That said, I would consider a failure to respond after having gotten a vote sufficient reason to leave a vote on that individual, provided that is the reason given for the vote.

So, in the end, I imagine lurkers will either retain their random vote OR a vote will be moved from an active player to a lurker.

[RyJae]

The way I see it is if everyone says they are going to vote for lurkers the scum won't lurk so it defeats that purpose. Personally how I'm going to vote once we start getting established is vote for the "me too" person, the person trying very hard to be vanilla. That's my plan, subject to change anyway.

If you have nothing to fear you should be able to post anything and accuse anyone you feel is scummy, if nothing else you get lynched and are a vanilla townie and that narrows down who the scum are. Best case though is that your accusations lead to finding scum. So I guess what I am saying, is I'll be voting for the persons who try to stay invisible but yet post. Bad plan? I don't know this is only game 2 for me learning as I go.

Though for day 1 I will be voting for a lurker eventually, as it's about the only thing we have to vote for starting out.

[anyrose]

The way I see it is if everyone says they are going to vote for lurkers the scum won't lurk so it defeats that purpose. Personally how I'm going to vote once we start getting established is vote for the "me too" person, the person trying very hard to be vanilla. That's my plan, subject to change anyway.

It seems to me (and yes, I am posting from work - like I said - sometimes I can) that any stated voting strategy allows the scum to do the reverse. So why give away your plan at all?

[Blaster Master]

But listen to what BlasterMaster is saying. Some things in this game are counter intuitive. For example you would think it would be in the town's best interest if the Detective were able to always get a scum read. But look at Simpletown where NAF1138's third read was scum. On the surface - whooppee. But if he would have read a live town then the game was over. We wouldn't have to have gone through two more Days of the whole RyJaye miller angst.

When it comes to selling a house: location location location

When it comes to Mafia: information information information

FOA, that actually was a typo on my part, as it was 2:47 in the morning. As long as my point got across, which I think it did, then it's all good.

Anyway, this is an important point, and it's one I think is worth emphasizing as I have sort of taken it for granted. Intuitively, the job of the detective is to find scum, but this is sub-optimal. His job is to gain information, and the maximum information comes from two factors. First, is towniness versus scumminess. A player who is found to be scummy get's lynched, and that's all we gain from that. A player who is found to be townie get's confirmed status and becomes a Night target for the scum. Second, and more important, is longevity. The detective should try to investigate people who are unlikely to be lynched or Night killed prior to when he will claim.

With this in mind, when I've had a detective role, I've always avoided investigating people who were high suspicion. Chances are they'll be high suspicion the next Day too. If you investigate them and they come up scum, well, they were probably going to be lynched anyway, so that doesn't help at all. If they come up as town, then either they're still probably going to be lynched or they're going to claim their power role and be saved. The only way your townie result could save them is if you put your own neck on the line to save them, which is generally a bad idea because the Detective is one of our most valuable roles.

So, to the detective, try to keep these factors in mind. You should probably favor longevity first. Then try to confirm a townie before trying to find scum. Beyond that, I'll leave it up to you.

[Thing Fish]

Although it could well be a coincidence, for instance, I don't think anyrose had posted anything since the game started until I put the second vote on her.

I have bolded the part of the sentence that anyrose omitted due to, um, probably space considerations. I am sure it was not her intent to deliberately quote another player in a misleading although technically accurate manner, for that would be a kinda scummy thing to do. And I do apologize for failing to take meticulous notes on the posts that were made before the game actually started.

anyrose, although your participation has now risen to the point where you are no longer among the lurkiest of the lurky, it has been limited almost entirely to defending yourself against me (and why not a word against twickster? Maybe you two are scumbuddies and are alarmed that his "random" vote against you was seconded?).

General tip for newbies: when you are trying to defend yourself against a lynch, especially when the people voting for you will freely admit that they have no real compelling reason for doing so, it is generally better not to get drawn into arguing about your case, but to find someone else that you can make a better case for lynching (this would mean not just OMGUSing).

So, OK, anyrose,assuming you're town, you could reasonably suspect that I have an above-average chance of being scum based on the fact that I voted for you. Who ELSE do you think might be scum? Coming up with an answer to that question (and granted, it's Day One, nobody can reasonably expect a great answer, but you have to start somewhere) would be the best way to help out the Town, rather than just covering your own ass, thus making you look like someone who might not only be Town but be capable of contributing to the Town in a helpful manner.

[Hoopy Frood]

Hoopy, how do you feel about lurkers later in game, rather than at the start? Generally as the game gets further, you don't gain as much information from them. With someone who participates, we can get a voting history, who they have and have not defended, and a general idea of where they were going. With a lurker (lets say, someone who votes, and pokes in for 1- 2 posts) with very little content, how can you get too much from it?

Later in the game they really begin to ping me. However, if there are better choices to lynch due to information, I'll go with that before a lurker. In Batman, the only game I've played in so far, lynch the lurker really didn't come into play after the first Day. (And we actually hit scum that Day. I voted for the "lurkiest" because I didn't see what the others were seeing who were on the Kat bandwagon. But, they were right, and I wasn't.) The main reason for this is non-town elements made up almost half the participants. There was always someone strategically better to lynch.

Lurking isn't necessarily a tell. It can be an indication of newbie scum, but it can also just be an indication of newbieness in general or being busy. However, it doesn't help town at all. Town needs information to win, and posting provides that. If people have legitimate reasons for lurking, I'm okay with that. (I didn't post much on the first Day of Batman because I had family in town helping me with my house so I couldn't devote a lot of time to it that week. After the first Day, my participation ramped up considerably.)

Personally, I just prefer to keep the more active people around because it both makes for a more interesting game and helps town develop strategies.

So to summarize, I have an even stronger opinion against lurkers as the game progresses. And I'm even less apt to switch a vote off of them barring information otherwise.

Speaking of lurkers, where's fluiddruid? She's the only one who's yet to post since the game started.

And I nominate peekercpa for the Rugger award. He's already hit double digits in posting numbers.

[twickster]

My brain hurts. I don't think I'm cut out for this.

[anyrose]

Thing Fish - I apologize that I only partially quoted you - and I was taken aback by twickster's (who is female, btw) vote as well. But I would have been taken aback by any vote against sweei l'il ol' me. ;)
However - how much of a scumtell is it to change one's vote once cast? Seems to me it's a pretty big "ooo! I better jump on that bandwagon lest they suspect me" kind of tell.

[Oredigger77]

So, OK, anyrose,assuming you're town, you could reasonably suspect that I have an above-average chance of being scum based on the fact that I voted for you. Who ELSE do you think might be scum? Coming up with an answer to that question (and granted, it's Day One, nobody can reasonably expect a great answer, but you have to start somewhere) would be the best way to help out the Town, rather than just covering your own ass, thus making you look like someone who might not only be Town but be capable of contributing to the Town in a helpful manner.


Ok this is the friendliness that I remember from reading other game threads. I randomly voted for you, you told me I was wrong and thought I was scum, which proves your scum unless you can tell me who else is scum. No real contribution but I'm trying to force myself not to lurk. I have a vote against me but absolutely no defense yet. Any one want to pile on so I can work out different ways to say me no scum?

[anyrose]

(since I missed the edit window)
In answer to your question, Thing Fish, about who I might suspect (other than you ;)) - right now, my answer is everyone since there have been no clear indicators, for my money. Lurkers/infrequent posters may merely be AFK for an extended period of time. By DAY Two, I may have a clearer sense of who is who.

[RyJae]

anyrose, although your participation has now risen to the point where you are no longer among the lurkiest of the lurky, it has been limited almost entirely to defending yourself against me (and why not a word against twickster? Maybe you two are scumbuddies and are alarmed that his "random" vote against you was seconded?).




See now I don't like how you painted twickster with your slight smudgey comment. That is the kind of thing that bothers me, for icky reasons, accuse anyrose but then throw twickster in for good measure?

A little to early to be painting people as scum IMHO, but I guess it can be done.

[Blaster Master]

okay I get it. But if we're just randomizing right now, how do you know I didn't put all the names in a hat and Thing Fish's is the one I picked? It's the first vote.
I don't know, it seems to me OMGUS things happen in everyday life all the freakin' time. Why is it such a no-no in here? Are some of you maybe taking this game a bit too seriously?

It's not necessarily a no-no, at least on Day one. The important thing to remember is that this is a game of information. The town is trying to gather more, and the scum are either trying to hinder that or manipulate it. One of the most valuable pieces of information available to the town is the voting record; not just who voted for who, but when and why. If reasoning for a vote is flimsy, it may reveal that you are privy to additional information, that you're voting for ulterior motives or both.

Thus, even if I'm doing a random vote, as my current vote is, I made a point of stating that it's random. I suppose in some of the joking votes, it can be assumed that they are random as well, but it's important to make sure that your reasoning for votes is explicit and clear. If you're pro-town, you are providing and information trail that is useful in the future and you may convince others with your reasoning. If you're scum, you're forced to do it because it looks scummy if you don't, and that forces scum to provide us with information as well.

And yes, some of us take this game too seriously. What's it to ya? :D

[Blaster Master]

It seems to me (and yes, I am posting from work - like I said - sometimes I can) that any stated voting strategy allows the scum to do the reverse. So why give away your plan at all?

The advantage of the town is that we have superior numbers, our disadvantages are that we have inferior information and we are forced to do any strategizing in the open. The only way we can really take advantage of our numerical advantage is to actually develop a strategy in the open.

That said, assuming the scum will do that reverse is dangerous. Look at it this way. We say we will vote for lurkers, does that mean the scum will not lurk? No, because if that were the case, then stating the case means that the scum either don't lurk to avoid that, and thus cluster as non-lurkers, or they attempt to distribute themselves in such a way that such a strategy only acheives a random result. The point is, if the scum deliberately cluster and either work with or against a particular plan, it will be an obvious anamoly.

IOW, if we say we're going to lynch lurkers, we can expect that some scum will probably still lurk, just as if we hadn't developed that strategy at all.

Eh, I hope that makes sense, cause I'm not sure I did a good job explaining it.

[Hoopy Frood]

It seems to me (and yes, I am posting from work - like I said - sometimes I can) that any stated voting strategy allows the scum to do the reverse. So why give away your plan at all?

Well, the point is not to hide the strategy. As a general rule, town shouldn't hide much from each other. Scum starts the game with information. Town starts the game with numerical advantage. Scum try to increase their numerical advantage; town tries to increase their information. When you hide your information and strategies, town cannot benefit from it. Any information you put forth is typically more useful to town than to scum. (Granted, power roles and such have compelling reasons to withhold things until the right time, but that's the exception.)

For example, saying you are going to lynch the lurker will explain to your fellow townies why you are currently voting the way you are. It provides a record for people to reference later. Or if you choose a lurker lynch over what many would consider a better choice to lynch, you should justify it. "Trust me"'s tend to draw suspicion, and this applies to any strategy. "Trust me" can be justified (see storyteller in offsite Batman), but they can also swing a discussion into a direction that ends up ultimately being harmful to town.

Additionally, getting the scum to post is a good thing. It increases the chances of them screwing up, and forces them to have a record that can be referenced in the future. When a scum is exposed, town will get information on how they acted and can try to deduce motives for their actions. It's also good for townies to be active, because scum know who the townies are, so through scum interactions with town, more information can be gained on any overarching strategy scum may be taking.

Now, just for my informational purposes since random never really came into play in Batman, what exactly is the rationale behind random votes for spurring discussion? Is discussion really increased significantly by it? I mean, getting one vote from random chance shouldn't really scare anyone into talking. I guess I don't understand it because I'm a bit of a blabbermouth anyway.

[bufftabby]

However - how much of a scumtell is it to change one's vote once cast? Seems to me it's a pretty big "ooo! I better jump on that bandwagon lest they suspect me" kind of tell.

Eh, votes are cheap. If somebody hops onto a bandwagon, there's not much difference between doing that by unvoting then revoting versus casting a bandwagon vote as your first vote. Scum tend to hide in bandwagons, and that's definitely one thing I'm going to look for when voting.

And I think it's hard to tell what anyrose's motives are right now. I learned in Recruitment that defensiveness is pretty much a null tell that can be misinterpreted as scummy, so let's definitely not fall into that trap again. Uber-defensivenss (how dare you vote for me based on a joke--even the the vote was a really jokey as well) is more a characteristic of a newb, Town or Scum affiliation being somewhat irrelevant to the reaction.

[Blaster Master]

So, OK, anyrose,assuming you're town, you could reasonably suspect that I have an above-average chance of being scum based on the fact that I voted for you. Who ELSE do you think might be scum? Coming up with an answer to that question (and granted, it's Day One, nobody can reasonably expect a great answer, but you have to start somewhere) would be the best way to help out the Town, rather than just covering your own ass, thus making you look like someone who might not only be Town but be capable of contributing to the Town in a helpful manner.

I'm sorry, but this doesn't make sense. It is not reasonable to suspect that the person voting for oneself is necessarily more likely to be scum. Let's assume that anyrose is vanilla (and for the sake of this point, since neither a Doctor or Detective have additional information, this applies to them as well). All she knows is that she isn't scum, she does not know. She also knows that the chance of anyone else being scum is equal and that any one of them that isn't scum knows the same thing. The only way to actually have a higher probability of being scum is to have a priori knowledge about the roles involved. IOW, that's a circular argument.

And telling her not to defend herself is suspect in and of itself as well. It is a natural instinct to want to defend oneself. If she's a power role, that instinct is obvious. But even if she's vanilla, she KNOWS that she is town, but only knows that anyone else has a chance at that. As such, it IS a pro-town motivation to defend oneself, particularly if she sees that vote's reasoning to be spurious.

You also ask her to say who else she thinks is scum, but you fail to mention that your reasoning against her is essentially random. This is what I'd call motivation transference, and it's quite scummy. I expect a good explanation from you about this post, or you'll be seeing your name in blue in a future post of mine.

[anyrose]

Fish's vote against me wasn't entirely random, well maybe it was it that he looked at who had already been voted against and took a random pick from that set. But I think he took the "Shelbyville" comment as my propensity towards untruths. Feh on him, I say, feh.

[The Unkempt One]

Later in the game they really begin to ping me. However, if there are better choices to lynch due to information, I'll go with that before a lurker. In Batman, the only game I've played in so far, lynch the lurker really didn't come into play after the first Day. (And we actually hit scum that Day. I voted for the "lurkiest" because I didn't see what the others were seeing who were on the Kat bandwagon. But, they were right, and I wasn't.) The main reason for this is non-town elements made up almost half the participants. There was always someone strategically better to lynch.

SNIP...



You have made some really good points so far in this thread, and I think that my random vote for you needs to be removed.

I would really like to hear from fluiddruid though. It does seem strange that she is the only one who has not posted yet.

unvote Hoopy Frood

[Zsofia]

(since I missed the edit window)
In answer to your question, Thing Fish, about who I might suspect (other than you ;)) - right now, my answer is everyone since there have been no clear indicators, for my money. Lurkers/infrequent posters may merely be AFK for an extended period of time. By DAY Two, I may have a clearer sense of who is who.
I know you already know, but it bears reminding - no editing!

[anyrose]

I know you already know, but it bears reminding - no editing!
okay - then my first sentance should have read - "since I am not allowed to edit - I forgot to add this"




sheesh :rolleyes:

[Zsofia]

Hey, I keep reaching for the "Edit" button, too. Just trying to help. It's a stupid reason to get kicked off the island.

[peekercpa]

Got a couple of minutes in between meetings.

okay - then my first sentance should have read - "since I am not allowed to edit - I forgot to add this"




sheesh :rolleyes:

Use something along the lines of NETA (Not Edited To Add).

[peekercpa]

And I too am wondering about fluiddruid. Kind of unlike her to not be more responsive. I am surprised that my lurker lynch vote has stayed on her this long.

[Koldanar]

[QUOTE=Hoopy Frood]Well, the point is not to hide the strategy. As a general rule, town shouldn't hide much from each other. Scum starts the game with information. Town starts the game with numerical advantage. Scum try to increase their numerical advantage; town tries to increase their information. When you hide your information and strategies, town cannot benefit from it. Any information you put forth is typically more useful to town than to scum. (Granted, power roles and such have compelling reasons to withhold things until the right time, but that's the exception.)

QUOTE]



I think you can look at [B]RoOsh and storyteller for two very opposing viewpoints on townies hiding data and outright lying.

RoOsh, if I remember correctly, LOVES townies lying to 'protect' information, or a strategy, etc. On the other hand, I've seen story go absolutely nuts about lying. He's fine with keeping information secret, but justifying that information (In the Batman game, for instance, he didn't tell anyone he was a doc until day 7 or 8). Establishing trust between us is a good reason for not lying; however sometimes information getting out at the wrong time can definitely hurt the town.

It is in our best interest for everyone to share strategies, and keep what you can open (as in, don't handwave away your reason for voting as 'well he just is scummy'; try to spell it out). If you are a power role, keep things quiet there...but if you can breadcrumb what you have done (i.e. the detective reasons out something for trusting a person they know now as townie. If the detective dies, we can look back and find that information w/out the detective having to spell it all out.)

As another note, I always find myself a little lost for a vote on day one; the only things you usually have are a minor ping to scumdar, or a townie being the victim of a bandwagon.

[Koldanar]

Well, the point is not to hide the strategy. As a general rule, town shouldn't hide much from each other. Scum starts the game with information. Town starts the game with numerical advantage. Scum try to increase their numerical advantage; town tries to increase their information. When you hide your information and strategies, town cannot benefit from it. Any information you put forth is typically more useful to town than to scum. (Granted, power roles and such have compelling reasons to withhold things until the right time, but that's the exception.)





I think you can look at [B]RoOsh and storyteller for two very opposing viewpoints on townies hiding data and outright lying.

RoOsh, if I remember correctly, LOVES townies lying to 'protect' information, or a strategy, etc. On the other hand, I've seen story go absolutely nuts about lying. He's fine with keeping information secret, but justifying that information (In the Batman game, for instance, he didn't tell anyone he was a doc until day 7 or 8). Establishing trust between us is a good reason for not lying; however sometimes information getting out at the wrong time can definitely hurt the town.

It is in our best interest for everyone to share strategies, and keep what you can open (as in, don't handwave away your reason for voting as 'well he just is scummy'; try to spell it out). If you are a power role, keep things quiet there...but if you can breadcrumb what you have done (i.e. the detective reasons out something for trusting a person they know now as townie. If the detective dies, we can look back and find that information w/out the detective having to spell it all out.)

As another note, I always find myself a little lost for a vote on day one; the only things you usually have are a minor ping to scumdar, or a townie being the victim of a bandwagon.

[Thing Fish]

Well, now we have some discussion going! Sorry about the simulpost, anyrose.

With regard to the question of whether we should (as I suggested earlier) be open about our strategies, I believe that we should, but only up to a point. Flexibility and common sense are also important. To take an extreme example, if someone announced that he would always vote for the player with the lowest post count, it would be easy for scum to avoid having that player vote for them. So you want to avoid having rigid rules about who you will vote for, or at least avoid publicizing them. A better permutation of the lurker-lynch strategy would be to say "I will look at the players who are near the bottom of the list in regard to substantive posts and see if any of them seem more suspicious than the others; if not, I will pick one at random". RyJae also makes an excellent point, that if you just count posts you end up giving twickster as much credit for saying his brain hurts as you give Blaster Master for his thus far surprisingly few but lengthy and informative posts. So, pay attention to who is posting a lot but not saying much.

Oredigger, I'm not quite sure what you're getting at with your post #146, but you appear to be accusing me of doing just that, and I would disagree. Obviously, since I have no good reason for my vote on anyrose, it's going to be very hard for her to rebut said reasoning! But on Day One, nobody really has any good reason to vote for anyone else or not; the point is to use the random and quasi-random votes, and people's reactions to them, as a starting point for discussion, which in a game like this may include going over a lot of basic strategy and etiquette points, which I submit is exactly what I have been doing.

RyJae, my smudge of twickster was really meant more as a humorous illustration of the paranoid thinking this game inspires than as a serious accusation... but again, we do have to start somewhere, and pointing out that rose had made multiple posts attacking me for jumping on the bandwagon while ignoring the person who started the bandwagon is about as close to a legitimate datum as we're likely to get this early in the game. But if the more experienced players feel this sort of thing is unhelpful, I will be happy to knock it off; I have read over a few games quickly and one very carefully, but I am still a newbie.

anyrose asks if it is necessarily scummy to switch votes. I think the answer is that it depends. On Day One, as BlaM points out, sticking rigidly to one's original (purportedly) random vote could actually be perceived as scummy. Since most would agree that providing information about your thinking is pro-town, therefore getting a vote on record early, before all the relevant data is available to analyze, is also pro-town, therefore changing your vote later based on that data can't logically be automatically seen as anti-town. What does tend to raise people's scumdar is when a vote is switched very close to the deadline without a convincing reason, especially when that vote switch affects the outcome of the vote. For example, in Simpletown, people were suspicious of Nanook for Days after his last-minute vote switch nearly saved the Lead Assassin's life, even though he had a good excuse (last-minute role claim).

And in response to BlaM's suggestion in post #150, I will now clarify that my vote on anyrose was in fact random and not based on any florophobia.

[anyrose]

<great big snip>
And in response to BlaM's suggestion in post #150, I will now clarify that my vote on anyrose was in fact random and not based on any florophobia.
:dubious: that's a relief?? :D

[Thing Fish]

Hmmm, threatened by Blaster Master on my first day. Note to self: it's much easier to feel smart while reading this game than while playing it.

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]I'm sorry, but this doesn't make sense. It is not reasonable to suspect that the person voting for oneself is necessarily more likely to be scum


I defer to your mathematical expertise, and now that I think about it what you say makes sense. What I was vaguely thinking was that, assuming everyone votes randomly except that scum avoid voting for each other, a town player would know that a scum player would have a slightly higher chance of voting for her than a town player would...but you're right, it's not kosher to work backwards and assume that a player who voted for you is necessarily more likely to be scum...I think...twickster, got any aspirin?? I suppose you could argue that since scum want to see town lynched, voting for a town player who already had a vote on her could be seen as more suspicious than casting the first vote...hmm, now I'm arguing against myself.

As for the rest of your post, I deny the charges. I didn't tell her not to defend herself, I pointed out for the benefit of the masses that (quoting myself):


General tip for newbies: when you are trying to defend yourself against a lynch, especially when the people voting for you will freely admit that they have no real compelling reason for doing so, it is generally better not to get drawn into arguing about your case, but to find someone else that you can make a better case for lynching (this would mean not just OMGUSing). (end quote)


I believe this is generally accepted as good strategy, and would be interested in hearing anything you have to say to the contrary. I should have been clearer and stated that I didn't mean she shouldn't defend herself at all, just that she shouldn't make defending herself the sole focus of all her posts, especially when the vote against her was random. Admittedly, I hadn't yet explicitly stated that my vote on her was random, nor had I explicitly stated that the case of "when the people voting for you will freely admit that they have no real compelling reason for doing so" applied here, but I think that both should have been fairly obvious to any fair-minded observer. In addition, while advising her to try making cases against other scum, I clearly said that I realized this was a near-impossible task at this stage of the game. So I don't think I can be fairly accused of motivation transference (nice phrase, btw) here. Granting that her OMGUS vote against me is a reasonable move at this point in the game, what would you have her do, simply restate her OMGUS reasoning over and over rather than analyze the posts of others in preparation for her Day 2 vote?

[Hoopy Frood]

With regard to the question of whether we should (as I suggested earlier) be open about our strategies, I believe that we should, but only up to a point. Flexibility and common sense are also important. To take an extreme example, if someone announced that he would always vote for the player with the lowest post count, it would be easy for scum to avoid having that player vote for them. So you want to avoid having rigid rules about who you will vote for, or at least avoid publicizing them. A better permutation of the lurker-lynch strategy would be to say "I will look at the players who are near the bottom of the list in regard to substantive posts and see if any of them seem more suspicious than the others; if not, I will pick one at random". RyJae also makes an excellent point, that if you just count posts you end up giving twickster as much credit for saying his brain hurts as you give Blaster Master for his thus far surprisingly few but lengthy and informative posts. So, pay attention to who is posting a lot but not saying much.

True. When I employ lynch-the-lurker, I don't go straight off of post counts. I take the amount of content into consideration. Fluff posts don't count for much, so if I notice someone posting a lot, but saying little, I'll still peg them as a lurker. (So far, though, no one has a particularly high fluff-to-substance ratio.) Also, even though fluiddruid hasn't posted yet, she's not a candidate for lurker at this point, because complete non-posting often times results from real-life or connection issues.

And Blaster currently is sitting around the median as far as post counts go. I do agree that he puts a lot of context in his posts (I haven't noticed a fluff from him since the Day began), so he tends to be on the lower end of the higher post counts.

[anyrose]

I thought this game was all noobs? some of you 'talk' like you've been playing for years

[Hoopy Frood]

I defer to your mathematical expertise, and now that I think about it what you say makes sense. What I was vaguely thinking was that, assuming everyone votes randomly except that scum avoid voting for each other, a town player would know that a scum player would have a slightly higher chance of voting for her than a town player would

Why would you think that? A random vote portends nothing. Since people don't tend to stick with random votes by the end of the Day, without good reason, I can't see a compelling reason for scum to add bias to a random vote by not randomly voting one of their own. In fact, they might intentionally random vote one of their own just because someone might expect them not to, in which case there's now a WIFOM situation. A scum "randomly" votes for scum; the first scum dies; you are now going to absolve the other scum because scum wouldn't vote for each other? Bad strategy. Very bad strategy. Especially since scum have been known to throw other scum under the bus just to gain townie cred. So that adds even another motivation for a phony random vote on another scum.

Random votes are null tells. A scum is just as likely to random vote another scum as he is town (within the appropriate proportions of each to the overall pool), or if he isn't, there really isn't a way to determine the motivation during the early game anyway.

So for now, view random votes as nothing else but a insignificant and likely meaningless part of a vote history for a player.

[anyrose]

CoG888 - Please provide an update of the votinig sitch, thanks

[Hoopy Frood]

I thought this game was all noobs? some of you 'talk' like you've been playing for years

1) This game is not all noobs. It's newbie friendly. This means it's likely to be a fairly basic setup and will contain many newbies. There are very roughly a third true newbies, a third haven't played much, and a third significantly experienced. It actually makes for a good balance, IMO.

2) You really need to stop editing. The mod has even mentioned it. This is twice now that you've done it. Editing is against the rules. You can disagree with the no-edit policy, but you still have to obey it to play in the game. If you make a typo, deal with it. We all make typoes. If you screw something up, clarify it in a follow-up post. But for the love of Cecil--don't edit! It looks suspicious, it's against the rules, and it will draw attention to you, whether you want it to or not. You really don't want to get modkilled this early in the game. You will hurt either side you belong to by decreasing their numbers with no informational benefit.

[bufftabby]

I thought this game was all noobs? some of you 'talk' like you've been playing for years

Well, this game is newbs-welcome, not newbs-only. I've been playing for a few months, but Blaster Master is an old pro. Editing, no matter what the reason, is gonna get you some badd juju from our mod, I'll wager. We're not just being mean or pedantic when we advise you to stop. I would hate for you to get mod-killed, seeing as how that basically gives those scummy bastards an extra kill (provided that you are Town). Let's not go down that road please.

[Hoopy Frood]

Which actually raises the question:

What happens in the case of a mod-kill?

[Blaster Master]

Now, just for my informational purposes since random never really came into play in Batman, what exactly is the rationale behind random votes for spurring discussion? Is discussion really increased significantly by it? I mean, getting one vote from random chance shouldn't really scare anyone into talking. I guess I don't understand it because I'm a bit of a blabbermouth anyway.

It's a bit more nuanced than that. A single random vote, in and of itself, doesn't necessary cause anyone to say anything. The point is, an honest townie WILL vote randomly, but scum will NOT vote randomly. This will generate useful information (as I think my vote evaluations in Simpletown demonstrated perfectly, as MindWanderer was easily picked out when compared to RyJae and MadTheSwine).

Further, while a single random vote won't necessarily prompt a response, if they're random, they WILL cluster in some way which WILL necessitate a response. It will also raise other questions: Was it genuine randomness, townie prodding, or scummy wagon-jumping?

Either way, the important point is it gets people posting, it generates voting initial voting records (even if it's a low signal ratio), it establishes patterns, and most importantly, it forces scum to make choices. That is, it's always preferable to make scum make the choices that we present them, than the other way around.

[Blaster Master]

Eh, votes are cheap. If somebody hops onto a bandwagon, there's not much difference between doing that by unvoting then revoting versus casting a bandwagon vote as your first vote. Scum tend to hide in bandwagons, and that's definitely one thing I'm going to look for when voting.

And I think it's hard to tell what anyrose's motives are right now. I learned in Recruitment that defensiveness is pretty much a null tell that can be misinterpreted as scummy, so let's definitely not fall into that trap again. Uber-defensivenss (how dare you vote for me based on a joke--even the the vote was a really jokey as well) is more a characteristic of a newb, Town or Scum affiliation being somewhat irrelevant to the reaction.

This is an important point that I think was washed out by the fact that I was scum in the Recruitment game, and that I decided it was counter-productive to mention it in Simpletown. Defensiveness is intuitively a scum tell, but it's generally a null tell. EVERYONE wants to live, whether scum or town, so there's no way to differentiate scum or town based purely upon defensiveness.

That said, there is a sort of tone that goes along with defensiveness that is very hard to duplicate and often a slight indicator of towniness. I think bufftabby vs. RoOsh in Simpletown is a good example. I think Drain Bead vs. me in Recruitment is a good example. I think the Day 2 fiasco in M2 is an example.

Bottom line, anyrose has been defensive thus far, but that's all we can say. Both scum or town in the same situation would be motivated to be defensive, thus it's impossible based purely on that to make any sort of guess at her alignment.

[anyrose]

I'm supposed to not be defensive? Who knew!

[Blaster Master]

I think you can look at RoOsh and storyteller for two very opposing viewpoints on townies hiding data and outright lying.

RoOsh, if I remember correctly, LOVES townies lying to 'protect' information, or a strategy, etc. On the other hand, I've seen story go absolutely nuts about lying. He's fine with keeping information secret, but justifying that information (In the Batman game, for instance, he didn't tell anyone he was a doc until day 7 or 8). Establishing trust between us is a good reason for not lying; however sometimes information getting out at the wrong time can definitely hurt the town.

It is in our best interest for everyone to share strategies, and keep what you can open (as in, don't handwave away your reason for voting as 'well he just is scummy'; try to spell it out). If you are a power role, keep things quiet there...but if you can breadcrumb what you have done (i.e. the detective reasons out something for trusting a person they know now as townie. If the detective dies, we can look back and find that information w/out the detective having to spell it all out.)

As another note, I always find myself a little lost for a vote on day one; the only things you usually have are a minor ping to scumdar, or a townie being the victim of a bandwagon.

A point about lying and hiding information. I'm not in agreeance with either of them (surprise, surprise). In general, a lying townie is a bad thing, but there ARE a few cases where it is the best thing to do. A good example of that was the Bishop saying he was a Priest in the Recruitment game. That said, lying is generally, as in 99/100, a bad idea for townies, so don't do it unless you've given a LOT of thought to what it means, not only in what they'll be forced to believe as a consequence, but what they'll think when you're found out to be a liar.

Similarly, it's generally a good idea to protect some information, but even hiding things like Doctor tells can sometimes be against the town's interest. For instance, in the Pirates game, there was a tell that our most valuable role was between two people, and I made a point of pointing it out. I figured that, first, the scum would probably see it anyway, and second, it would force the scum to take a stab at those people, and the important role would self-protect, and the other was probably scum. Sure, it was risky, but the result was that the scum DID take a stab at them, and killed the secret scum instead of the important power role. I like to think my play there was at least partially responsible for that. So, again, those sorts of things are generally anti-town, but it is important to think about the consequences.

The important lesson here is, hidden information can always be revealed later with little difference (except possibly questions about timing), a lie cannot be undone.

[Koldanar]

I'm supposed to not be defensive? Who knew!

More than that, I think some people just generally assume that, if you are town, and a finger points your way, you should be blase (how do I do the accent in there?) about it, shrug it off, and move on, because "Of course, I AM town.".

My very first game, I lurked a little. A scum spotted that, put me out there, and led a bandwagon all over myself. I was trying to be defensive the whole time, and people kept jumping on me for it. It seems always that a natural human reaction to someone being defensive is thinking they're covering it up. So thats why BlaM discusses it as a null-tell, even though we think the other way. So no, go ahead and defend yourself. And if you are scum, please let something slip!

[bufftabby]

I'm supposed to not be defensive? Who knew!

I think what we're saying (I am, anyway, can't speak for BlaM) is that it is ok to be defensive. The tone of a defense is really where the information lies, but newbs often jump on defensiveness as a scum tell, especially if it seems out of proportion to the situation. See the lynching of poor CapnPitt in recruitment (in which buff votes wrongly and learns a valuable lesson).

BlaM referred to the difference between the tones of mine and RoOsh's defensiveness during the endgame of Simpletown, and he's absolutely correct. His tone of defensiveness, as well as the tone of his attacks on me, are what really convinced me correctly as to his scummitude, and I spent the last 3 Days attempting to convince the Town of this. That example definitely also shows how difficult tone can be to define. Not that I'm asking you to research these, situations, but they are definitely available for you revierw and edification.

[Hoopy Frood]

It's a bit more nuanced than that. A single random vote, in and of itself, doesn't necessary cause anyone to say anything. The point is, an honest townie WILL vote randomly, but scum will NOT vote randomly.

But why not? Why would scum not consider voting for another scum if it came up from a random generator? Random votes don't mean much, and are unlikely to lead to a bandwagon based on rationale, so is it simply because there's a slight chance that the distribution will fall on one person multiple times and scum are less apt to let that happen for fear that random voting becomes a rationale-based bandwagon? Or the flipside, scum might vote for someone who's already been voted for and claim it's random when it isn't? I can understand either of those points, but it doesn't strike me as being very good strategy for scum to employ from where I'm looking at it. Has it been a commonly employed tactic in the past?

[Zsofia]

I'm supposed to not be defensive? Who knew!
Well, if you're vanilla town, you have to keep reminding yourself that it doesn't matter if you die - the point is to help the Town win. So obviously you want to lynch scum, not yourself, since you know you're town, but your death as such is essentially meaningless except as numbers go - and Town can afford to lose people more than it can afford to lose information. And recall, the Town does get information when it lynches a townie. On the other hand, if you're not vanilla town and have some kind of power role, your death is a much bigger blow to the Town and you should obviously prevent it if you can. Of course, if you're scum you're going to be a lot more upset about dying just because there's a lot less scum than town.

[anyrose]

I did not sign on to be the sacreficial lamb, here, people. :p

[Zsofia]

Who's sacrificing you? Last I heard you had two whole random votes.

[The Unkempt One]

I'm supposed to not be defensive? Who knew!

I was thinking the same thing. At this point I am not sure if you are scum or town, but I don't think that defending yourself in the manner that you have is a tell one way or another.

In reading back through the thread, I read this from Thing Fish in post #142

General tip for newbies: when you are trying to defend yourself against a lynch, especially when the people voting for you will freely admit that they have no real compelling reason for doing so, it is generally better not to get drawn into arguing about your case, but to find someone else that you can make a better case for lynching (this would mean not just OMGUSing).
Does this really make the most sense? It seems to me that this strategy would be best for scum who have been voted for. If you are innocent, plead your case. If you are scum, you can easily try to focus attention elsewhere because you know who else is scum.

[Zsofia]

How do you plead your case when it boils down to "But I'm town! Really!" I mean, further on there will be more voting history to hash over and such, but at this point what can you say but "But I'm town!"

[The Unkempt One]

And after posting that, I see that people have already been discussing the topic while I was writing my post.

Late the the party again... :(

[anyrose]

Is a simple majority necessary for a lynching, or is it a minimum number of votes?

[Zsofia]

It's a plurality, and it happens on Thursday. Please note that it is Monday now.

[Blaster Master]

I defer to your mathematical expertise, and now that I think about it what you say makes sense. What I was vaguely thinking was that, assuming everyone votes randomly except that scum avoid voting for each other, a town player would know that a scum player would have a slightly higher chance of voting for her than a town player would...but you're right, it's not kosher to work backwards and assume that a player who voted for you is necessarily more likely to be scum...I think...twickster, got any aspirin?? I suppose you could argue that since scum want to see town lynched, voting for a town player who already had a vote on her could be seen as more suspicious than casting the first vote...hmm, now I'm arguing against myself.

It may be fair to say scum are more likely to vote for a townie, but even if that is true, it is an implication and not an equivalence, thus it is logically invalid to say that a vote on a townie is more likely to be made by scum, even if the first part is true.

The part that gets me is, you get an OMGUS vote from her, which is expected, and rather than explain that your vote is essentially random (which you now claim it is), you attempt to paint her defensiveness as scummy, and then smudge twickster in the process when she'd already justified her vote as random. You were attacking her as if your vote was based on information, which is was not, and then you act like it's scummy that she doesn't like you jumping on her. Then you tell her not to defend herself, but to find someone else she finds scummy, when few other people have posted anything of consequence, so there's not really anything TO find scummy.

As for the rest of your post, I deny the charges. I didn't tell her not to defend herself, I pointed out for the benefit of the masses that (quoting myself):


General tip for newbies: when you are trying to defend yourself against a lynch, especially when the people voting for you will freely admit that they have no real compelling reason for doing so, it is generally better not to get drawn into arguing about your case, but to find someone else that you can make a better case for lynching (this would mean not just OMGUSing). (end quote)

I find this misleading as well. This sort of "tip to newbies" seems to imply that you have experience, but then you've also said in other posts that you've only followed along a few times, so you're still a newbie. Which way is it?

Further, if she DOES call you out for having no case, and you admit to it, which you didn't do until I called you on it, the onus is on you to either MAKE a case or remove your vote because you don't have one. But expecting someone to ignore baseless votes and go looking elsewhere just doesn't make sense. In fact, I view cases like that as brushing under the rug, like "Yeah, I may be scummy, but look here, this guy is WAY scummier than me! Don't scrutinize me anymore because I'm afraid of what yo might find."

As both town and scum, I find it enormously frustrating when I'm being picked out as looking scummy, but no one can give me a justification as for why. You can see this frustration from me as a towning in Simpletown, and as scum in Batman. Thus, I submit that NOT looking elsewhere is most likely a null tell as well.

I believe this is generally accepted as good strategy, and would be interested in hearing anything you have to say to the contrary. I should have been clearer and stated that I didn't mean she shouldn't defend herself at all, just that she shouldn't make defending herself the sole focus of all her posts, especially when the vote against her was random. Admittedly, I hadn't yet explicitly stated that my vote on her was random, nor had I explicitly stated that the case of "when the people voting for you will freely admit that they have no real compelling reason for doing so" applied here, but I think that both should have been fairly obvious to any fair-minded observer. In addition, while advising her to try making cases against other scum, I clearly said that I realized this was a near-impossible task at this stage of the game. So I don't think I can be fairly accused of motivation transference (nice phrase, btw) here. Granting that her OMGUS vote against me is a reasonable move at this point in the game, what would you have her do, simply restate her OMGUS reasoning over and over rather than analyze the posts of others in preparation for her Day 2 vote?

The point is, you made a case and you got a response from her. You expect her to make a case and then look elsewhere, meanwhile, you've made a random vote, gotten a reasonable response that counters your initial vote, and you failed to either make more of a case to maintain your vote, or unvote and look elsewhere. As such, her suspicion on you is legitimate. As I said, the onus is now on you to either further your case, or unvote, but instead you seem to be attempting to shift that responsibility onto her to find someone scummy, while you're chasing a null tell.

Either way, I finish this suspicious enough that I'm willing to loose my random vote against Koldanar and put it on you.

Unvote Koldanar
Vote Thing Fish

[Oredigger77]

Oredigger, I'm not quite sure what you're getting at with your post #146, but you appear to be accusing me of doing just that, and I would disagree. Obviously, since I have no good reason for my vote on anyrose, it's going to be very hard for her to rebut said reasoning! But on Day One, nobody really has any good reason to vote for anyone else or not; the point is to use the random and quasi-random votes, and people's reactions to them, as a starting point for discussion, which in a game like this may include going over a lot of basic strategy and etiquette points, which I submit is exactly what I have been doing.

Why yes it did seem to be what you were trying to do and I was just pointing it out. You're right about getting peoples reaction to thing is what is important at this place in the game and there is no doubt about it you are surely getting the most reactions. It just seems to me that while most people are discussing strategy and why we should follow a particular one, you are trying to get reactions through your accusations. At this point I have no opinions just trying to point out the obvious and hope someone smart picks up a pattern.

[Blaster Master]

I thought this game was all noobs? some of you 'talk' like you've been playing for years

Some of us have been playing for a while. I've been playing for about a year and a half or so (my first game being M2 that started early last year, I think), and I've played in several games and hosted one.


And I hate to reitterate this, but I don't want you to have to be subbed out. I trust your probably honest in that you only editted to correct spelling, but it can still leave lingering doubt, particularly for those of us who haven't seen you around much in other threads. I promise you, I won't think less of you if you have some grammar or spelling mistakes, because I know you aren't editting. If you really feel the need to edit for clarity, just make another post and correct it that way.

The thing is, in a previous game, an editted post WAS used to attempt to conceal a slip up by scum (look up Mafia V: Cult of Sekham, or just read about it in the thread about "must reads" in Mafia games). In a live game, you can't unsay things. Even on this board, someone can read what you posted between when you posted it and when you edit it (as what happened in the cited case), and then you have a case where the post history is changed, which isn't fair. Slips are legitimate part of gameplay and can be used by either side effectively, to either find scum, or for scum to frame townies.

So,

[The Unkempt One]

snip

The part that gets me is, you get an OMGUS vote from her, which is expected, and rather than explain that your vote is essentially random (which you now claim it is), you attempt to paint her defensiveness as scummy, and then smudge twickster in the process when she'd already justified her vote as random. You were attacking her as if your vote was based on information, which is was not, and then you act like it's scummy that she doesn't like you jumping on her. Then you tell her not to defend herself, but to find someone else she finds scummy, when few other people have posted anything of consequence, so there's not really anything TO find scummy.



I find this misleading as well. This sort of "tip to newbies" seems to imply that you have experience, but then you've also said in other posts that you've only followed along a few times, so you're still a newbie. Which way is it?

snip



Bolding mine.

I picked up on this as well, in post # 183.

fos on Thing Fish

[Blaster Master]

More than that, I think some people just generally assume that, if you are town, and a finger points your way, you should be blase (how do I do the accent in there?) about it, shrug it off, and move on, because "Of course, I AM town.".

You mean like "blasé"? To do that, I use Alt + 130 (on the numpad).

My very first game, I lurked a little. A scum spotted that, put me out there, and led a bandwagon all over myself. I was trying to be defensive the whole time, and people kept jumping on me for it. It seems always that a natural human reaction to someone being defensive is thinking they're covering it up. So thats why BlaM discusses it as a null-tell, even though we think the other way. So no, go ahead and defend yourself. And if you are scum, please let something slip!

This is another important point I've kind of glossed over. You'll see some things discussed as scum tells, or townie tells. When I use the term null tell, I'm saying it's something that that person is pretty much equally likely to do whether he's scum or town, so it's not worth a whole lot. The important point to notice is motivation, as scum have different motivation than town. But in a case where someone is being attacked, scum and town share the same motivation to not be lynched, as self-preservation, thus that defensiveness offers no way to differentiate the motivation, and thus no way to use it to determine if that person is town or scum.

I can make a longer post about motivation if people are interested, but I think it's something that just doesn't make a lot of sense outside of the context, so... yeah.

[Blaster Master]

But why not? Why would scum not consider voting for another scum if it came up from a random generator? Random votes don't mean much, and are unlikely to lead to a bandwagon based on rationale, so is it simply because there's a slight chance that the distribution will fall on one person multiple times and scum are less apt to let that happen for fear that random voting becomes a rationale-based bandwagon? Or the flipside, scum might vote for someone who's already been voted for and claim it's random when it isn't? I can understand either of those points, but it doesn't strike me as being very good strategy for scum to employ from where I'm looking at it. Has it been a commonly employed tactic in the past?

This is more a practice of theory than a theory of practice, but I'll try to explain my train of thought. Any townie (except for masons) at the start of the game know only one piece of information, their own role. Thus, ANY initial vote they make is purely random. I prefer to enforce this by making them truly random, so townies don't inadvertantly mess up true randomness with some wagon joining or avoidance. However, scum will NOT vote randomly. They have information, because they know who is and is not scum. Thus, even if they DO use random.org to make their vote, the worst we get is 100% noise on votes, but a vote that will potentially show a motivational conflict.

However, there also lies the possibility that the scum will not use random.org, in which case he will chose, at some level, whether or not he's voting for a fellow scum or a townie. This is an example of what I like to refer to as "Pseudo-Random" (please reference my posts in previous games about my Pseudo-Random Hypothesis). Basically, because it is made with some bit of information, and an attempt to appear random relative to that, it will result in patterns that are decidedly NOT random, but only made to appear so.

Now, this is something that is very difficult to explain in how, but I HAVE used it effectively to find scum in previous games. Simpletown is a good example (as it pinpointed MindWanderer). I also used it in the Pirates game to find Gadarene.

I'm willing to do some more discussion of PRH as well, if anyone is interested, but it's a bit math intensive and not really useful until we've built up patterns that can be analyzed with it in mind, so... yeah.

[peekercpa]

I can make a longer post about motivation if people are interested, but I think it's something that just doesn't make a lot of sense outside of the context, so... yeah.

I wouldn't mind at least a recap of your Simpletown views regarding this subject. It kind of made sense but my brain was not easily able to get wrapped around it totally - I mean look at who I ultimately voted for. Maybe taking the class over would be helpful.

The math, on the other hand, don't bother as far as I am concerned. When it comes to your approach it is as comprehensible to me as, say, Mandarin Chinese. I mean it's kind of fascinating but I don't understand a lick of it and heck I am a CPA so it's not like numbers are foreign animals to me.

[Hoopy Frood]

This is more a practice of theory than a theory of practice, but I'll try to explain my train of thought. Any townie (except for masons) at the start of the game know only one piece of information, their own role. Thus, ANY initial vote they make is purely random. I prefer to enforce this by making them truly random, so townies don't inadvertantly mess up true randomness with some wagon joining or avoidance. However, scum will NOT vote randomly. They have information, because they know who is and is not scum. Thus, even if they DO use random.org to make their vote, the worst we get is 100% noise on votes, but a vote that will potentially show a motivational conflict.

However, there also lies the possibility that the scum will not use random.org, in which case he will chose, at some level, whether or not he's voting for a fellow scum or a townie. This is an example of what I like to refer to as "Pseudo-Random" (please reference my posts in previous games about my Pseudo-Random Hypothesis). Basically, because it is made with some bit of information, and an attempt to appear random relative to that, it will result in patterns that are decidedly NOT random, but only made to appear so.

Now, this is something that is very difficult to explain in how, but I HAVE used it effectively to find scum in previous games. Simpletown is a good example (as it pinpointed MindWanderer). I also used it in the Pirates game to find Gadarene.

I'm willing to do some more discussion of PRH as well, if anyone is interested, but it's a bit math intensive and not really useful until we've built up patterns that can be analyzed with it in mind, so... yeah.

I think I'm beginning to understand the rationale. I'll have to mull it over to truly grasp the nuances of the various outcomes. Just two more questions (and understand, I'm not trying to be annoying or provocative or anything; I really do like to understand the various strategies so I can see how they work with my style of play and to see if I can maybe improve on them, point out their flaws, or use them to possibly pick up on something others have missed):

1) How do Mason types, with their extra knowledge, fit in to doing random voting? Are they always going to maintain a truly random vote? Is it wise for them to do so? If they don't can they cause a skew in the town vs. scum random voting and muck things up? When they are revealed as Masons, does that color their random votes from Day One?

2) Would you advocate a "mass random vote" on Day 1 before any rationale-based votes are cast? I don't think it's ever been done (at least, I've never seen it discussed in any game I've looked through), but I'd expect it might be an interesting way to start the game, and would establish a voting record for everybody.

[Amblydoper]

Vote Count
anyrose - 2 (twickster, Thing Fish)
fluiddruid - 1 (peekercepa)
cckerberos - 1 (RyJae)
Oredigger77 - 1 (cckerberos)
The Unkempt One - 1 (bufftabby)
bufftabby - 1 (Zsofia)
Thing Fish - 1 (anyrose, Blaster Master)

Not Voting
Oredigger77, Hoppy Frood, fluiddruid, Koldanar, The Unkempt One

Which actually raises the question:
What happens in the case of a mod-kill?
The mod-kill will replace the kill for that day. But no one is going to do anything to get mod-killed, right? RIGHT? :)


Is a simple majority necessary for a lynching, or is it a minimum number of votes?
Zsofia is correct. whoever has the most votes at the deadline gets the noose.

[bufftabby]

I haven't really found anything necessarily scummy going on, but I think enough discussion has taken place that I can go ahead and remove my random vote, pending further developments. I'm pretty sure I can come up with an actual educated guess by Thursday!

unvote The Unkempt One

(I'm pretty unkempt myself. I mean, I am a crazy cat lady of sorts. We're not really known for our impeccable tidiness.)

[bufftabby]

fluiddruid, hello hello hello, is there anybody in there? Just nod if you can hear me, is there anyone at home?

Sorry, guys. Started the karaoke early. But I'm quite curious where she is.

[peekercpa]

This one is solely from my limited knowlege so I'll muck it up then someone smarter than me can feel free to correct or fill in. And although I don't want to get deep down in the calculations BlasterMaster's PRH statement is very valid at a layperson's level.

One would think that for a population of fourteen that if everything was totally equal and truly random that each of us would end up with one vote. At least that is the mind set that I come from. However, truly random is going to be more bell shaped with a couple of unfortunates getting multiple votes while some get none. Therefore, take what would be predicted and see where that "bell" gets flattened or spiked. Figure out why and who and you have a scum manipulating the results.

It's kind of like those poor souls at the casinos tracking red versus black and betting on what is perceived is a trend. You don't get to stay in a penthouse and have your own private Lear doing that long term. Well you may get to stay in the penthouse depending on how much you lose. :)

And if I totally mutilated this discussion/point I am willing to be educated. I got a 26 on my first college stat class test and promptly dropped.

[RyJae]

Yeah I guess I should remove my random vote as well, and place the dreaded third vote on the only person that even remotely did anything to ping me in anyway so far. (see my post #148 (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9792714&postcount=148) )

So not a random vote this time, but subject to change as the day wears on and more comes out. So for the dreaded number 3 vote. (Our Mods math was incorrect this be #3 not #2)


unvote cckerberos

vote Thing Fish

[peekercpa]

fluiddruid, hello hello hello, is there anybody in there? Just nod if you can hear me, is there anyone at home?

Sorry, guys. Started the karaoke early. But I'm quite curious where she is.


And I too wonder where fluiddruid is. I am going to remain consistent in my lynch the lurker strategy at this point. It is unlike her to not be participatory and whether a real life situation has arisen one can not be certain. I am going to be consistent, however. Scum seem to make a lot of excuses and back filling of statements to justify their current position. So I am unable to move my vote at this time based on my stated strategy even if it may be perceived to be unsympathetic or harsh by some.

[anyrose]

just so you know, my lovelies, the fact that I had access today almost certainly guarantees I won't the rest of the week. Please don't be too hard on me in my absences. ;)

[cckerberos]

1) This game is not all noobs. It's newbie friendly. This means it's likely to be a fairly basic setup and will contain many newbies. There are very roughly a third true newbies, a third haven't played much, and a third significantly experienced. It actually makes for a good balance, IMO.
I think it was originally intended to be a bit more than just newbie friendly in terms of setup, IMHO. That's what we just had with Simpletown. CoG888 makes clear in the OP that this is actually a newbie-oriented game but veterans who would like to teach are welcome to join. I've actually been kinda surprised at the way the veterans have been playing thus far, with so many references to past games, strategies, and acronyms. ISTM that they're essentially playing this like just any other Mafia game, which makes it kind of sink or swim for the newbies playing and probably isn't quite what they were expecting.

I've read Simpletown and a couple other games so it's not all that bad for me, but if some of the new players really "just wanted to get their feet wet before stepping it up against the big boys" (from the OP) I think they're getting a little shell-shocked.

Just my two cents.

[Thing Fish]

Hi everyone, sorry I vanished, work got crazy on me. Tuesdays are a hard day for me to get online, will try to post a little tomorrow but hopefully will have more attention to devote on Wed. and Thurs.

[cckerberos]

One would think that for a population of fourteen that if everything was totally equal and truly random that each of us would end up with one vote. At least that is the mind set that I come from. However, truly random is going to be more bell shaped with a couple of unfortunates getting multiple votes while some get none. Therefore, take what would be predicted and see where that "bell" gets flattened or spiked. Figure out why and who and you have a scum manipulating the results.
Not really. What you'd expect is that over the long-term each person should get roughly the same number of votes if voting was truly random. Over the short-term you'd expect to get all kind of aberrations. That's the thing about BM's Pseudo-Random Strategy that I don't quite get. I understand his logic concerning the difference between truly random and pseudo-random votes being significant. I mean, it's why in cryptography only the one-time pad (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_time_pad) is truly unbreakable. But I'm not convinced that there are enough "random" votes cast by any given player in a given Mafia game to provide a broad enough data set to provide good analysis.

[peekercpa]

Fish's vote against me wasn't entirely random, well maybe it was it that he looked at who had already been voted against and took a random pick from that set. But I think he took the "Shelbyville" comment as my propensity towards untruths. Feh on him, I say, feh.


And don't advertise a "propensity towards untruths." I understand that there are times that this may make sense but as a general rule - kind of frowned upon.

And please don't edit anymore. It may be a stupid rule but it is still a rule none the less.

It appears that you are probably as green as they come and I certainly don't want to crimp your unique style of play, but those two attributes mentioned earlier are going to get you in dutch with the vast majority of this crowd.

Advice given with all the confidence of a player that has one game under the belt.

[anyrose]

And don't advertise a "propensity towards untruths." I understand that there are times that this may make sense but as a general rule - kind of frowned upon.

And please don't edit anymore. It may be a stupid rule but it is still a rule none the less.

It appears that you are probably as green as they come and I certainly don't want to crimp your unique style of play, but those two attributes mentioned earlier are going to get you in dutch with the vast majority of this crowd.

Advice given with all the confidence of a player that has one game under the belt.

I was being faceitious - I don't lie - I was not brought up that way - I was saying that could have been how Fish took it.

And if one more person tells me not to edit, I will edit every post out of spite. I get it already! :rolleyes: :p

[peekercpa]

Not really. What you'd expect is that over the long-term each person should get roughly the same number of votes if voting was truly random. Over the short-term you'd expect to get all kind of aberrations. That's the thing about BM's Pseudo-Random Strategy that I don't quite get. I understand his logic concerning the difference between truly random and pseudo-random votes being significant. I mean, it's why in cryptography only the one-time pad (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_time_pad) is truly unbreakable. But I'm not convinced that there are enough "random" votes cast by any given player in a given Mafia game to provide a broad enough data set to provide good analysis.

But that is the whole point. Over a million iterations everyone ends up with a million votes. Over one iteration there is going to be some type of anamoly, potentially. We are here, today, today's attempt to normalize the anamoly by scum is what should be scrutinized - if I read BlasterMaster qnd his math even in the same continent.

No wonder I got a 26 on that friggin' test.

I'm letting this one sink to the bottom of the ocean 'cause I either don't get it or can't explain it (most likely the former).

[bufftabby]

And I too wonder where fluiddruid is. I am going to remain consistent in my lynch the lurker strategy at this point. It is unlike her to not be participatory and whether a real life situation has arisen one can not be certain. I am going to be consistent, however. Scum seem to make a lot of excuses and back filling of statements to justify their current position. So I am unable to move my vote at this time based on my stated strategy even if it may be perceived to be unsympathetic or harsh by some.

That seems kind of harsh to me, but I guess you seem to have anticipated that reaction. I really hate to lynch lurkers before they get a chance to defend themselves, especially when they haven't posted *at all*. I'm inclined to believe she's got a reasonable explanation. Of course, it's possible that her "reasonable explanation" is that she's a scummy bastard! YMMV, just my 2c.

[Hoopy Frood]

This is where the post counts stand as of now:

peekercpa--21
anyrose--17
bufftabby--14
Blaster Master--14
Hoopy Frood--14 (including this one)
The Unkempt One--10
Zsofia--8
Thing Fish--8
cckerberos--5
twickster--5
RyJae--4
Koldanar--4
Oredigger77--3
fluiddruid--0

One point of note: Other than from anyrose, I haven't seen more than a couple fluff posts from anyone, and anyrose's fluff isn't horrible by any stretch. (I think I counted 6, but fluff is very subjective.)

Since I haven't put a vote in yet, I'll do so now. I won't be voting fluiddruid at this point because she hasn't even posted which means she has no chance to defend herself, and one really can't be lurking if one isn't even around. I think it may be time for a mod-prod.

So, for now, I'll vote for the second lowest: vote Oredigger77

[cckerberos]

But that is the whole point. Over a million iterations everyone ends up with a million votes. Over one iteration there is going to be some type of anamoly, potentially. We are here, today, today's attempt to normalize the anamoly by scum is what should be scrutinized - if I read BlasterMaster qnd his math even in the same continent.

No wonder I got a 26 on that friggin' test.

I'm letting this one sink to the bottom of the ocean 'cause I either don't get it or can't explain it (most likely the former).
Sorry, I misread your post. I think your argument is correct.

One point, though. From your prior post:
Figure out why and who and you have a scum manipulating the results.I think a better way of putting this would be "figure out why and you have someone who has additional information manipulating the results." Scum of course fall into this category, but masons and various investigatory pro-town roles do as well.

[peekercpa]

I think it was originally intended to be a bit more than just newbie friendly in terms of setup, IMHO. That's what we just had with Simpletown. CoG888 makes clear in the OP that this is actually a newbie-oriented game but veterans who would like to teach are welcome to join. I've actually been kinda surprised at the way the veterans have been playing thus far, with so many references to past games, strategies, and acronyms. ISTM that they're essentially playing this like just any other Mafia game, which makes it kind of sink or swim for the newbies playing and probably isn't quite what they were expecting.

I've read Simpletown and a couple other games so it's not all that bad for me, but if some of the new players really "just wanted to get their feet wet before stepping it up against the big boys" (from the OP) I think they're getting a little shell-shocked.

Just my two cents.

Ok, I'll bite (just not hard). What can I do to make this more "newb" friendly? I mean I want the town to win but will also participate in any discussion that makes the new blood more willing to come back again. The idea of sitting around with some of the current vets and rehashing old shit while we drool and crap ourselves is a wee bit depressing.

All of this is offered with the reality that I have played in one game. I voted for the Doc, two town, a lurker and a Detective identified scum. As stated before I am willing to educate by walking into the mine field and getting blown up. Kind of along the lines of FCS don't do this.

[The Unkempt One]

I have reread this thread again, and after placing a finger of suspicion on Thing Fish, I think I am prepared to vote for him.

The first thing that pinged me about Thing Fish was how quickly he voted for anyrose as a lurker, when there was already a vote on her for lurking. (see post #97)

Post #137 sees Thing Fish talking about why he voted for anyrose,
I don't think anyrose had posted anything since the game started until I put the second vote on her. If she had continued not to say anything, that would strongly suggest that she was, if not scum, at least not the kind of Townie who was likely to make good contributions to our cause, and therefore a good lynch candidate. Mind you, posting a couple lines of OMGUS doesn't exactly convince me to move my vote off her, but it's a start.


Post # 163:
RyJae, my smudge of twickster was really meant more as a humorous illustration of the paranoid thinking this game inspires than as a serious accusation... but again, we do have to start somewhere, and pointing out that rose had made multiple posts attacking me for jumping on the bandwagon while ignoring the person who started the bandwagon is about as close to a legitimate datum as we're likely to get this early in the game. But if the more experienced players feel this sort of thing is unhelpful, I will be happy to knock it off; I have read over a few games quickly and one very carefully, but I am still a newbie.
Seems convenient that Thing Fish is going to leave himself an out (the part I bolded) if he feels that he needs to back off of his vote on anyrose. Seems too easy to me.



Well, I looked for all of the supposed posts where anyrose attacked Thing Fish, and I have to say that I am having a hard time finding them. However, I am going to post of list of anyrose's posts made after Thing Fish voted for her, prior to his post # 163:

#116 - placed an omgus vote against Thing Fish

#120 - asked for a definition of omgus

#121 - apologized for editing

#128 - asked about randomizing votes

#135 - explained reasons for her "lurking"

#140 - commented about discussing voting strategy

#145 - suggests Fish jumped on a bandwagon (is this the attack you are talking about Thing Fish?)

#147 - says she suspects everyone

#154 - suggests Fish's vote was not completely random

#157 - talked about editing again

It seems to me that Thing Fish is misrepresenting anyrose's response to his vote in order to make her look scummy. So because of this, I am going to vote for him.

vote Thing Fish

[peekercpa]

I was being faceitious - I don't lie - I was not brought up that way - I was saying that could have been how Fish took it.

And if one more person tells me not to edit, I will edit every post out of spite. I get it already! :rolleyes: :p

Kind of figured your nature after the Shelbyville post. You totally whoosed me.

Oh, and please don't edit anymore. :)

And if you do out of spite my faith in the goodness of mankind will be shaken to its foundation.

[Oredigger77]

Well after getting two votes I guess I need to explain my lack of posts. After looking at the vote count I am most deffinantly not keeping up. Ive posted whenever I had something to say and a couple of times when I thought I didn't have anything to say. Unforunatly I don't have any master stratigies to talk about or grand observations to make. I agree Thing Fish look scummy earlier but not enough for me vote for him. But I also wonder about Master Blaster's continous posting about strategy it seems like he is trying to force us to think in a certain manner which could either be good or bad. Still no vote but at least I explained where I'm coming from.

[cckerberos]

Ok, I'll bite (just not hard). What can I do to make this more "newb" friendly? I mean I want the town to win but will also participate in any discussion that makes the new blood more willing to come back again. The idea of sitting around with some of the current vets and rehashing old shit while we drool and crap ourselves is a wee bit depressing.

All of this is offered with the reality that I have played in one game. I voted for the Doc, two town, a lurker and a Detective identified scum. As stated before I am willing to educate by walking into the mine field and getting blown up. Kind of along the lines of FCS don't do this.
Honestly, as a newbie myself, I'm not exactly sure. Certainly the very nature of the game, in which advice given and questions asked are scrutinized for scumtells, more or less acts against it being newbie friendly. I'm not sure what can really be done about that.

[Amblydoper]

...I won't be voting fluiddruid at this point because she hasn't even posted which means she has no chance to defend herself, and one really can't be lurking if one isn't even around. I think it may be time for a mod-prod...
Prodding in progress

[Amblydoper]

Two and a half days until deadline.
Vote Count
anyrose - 2 (twickster, Thing Fish)
fluiddruid - 1 (peekercepa)
Oredigger77 - 1 (cckerberos)
bufftabby - 1 (Zsofia)
Thing Fish - 4 (anyrose, Blaster Master, RyJae, The Unkempt One)

Not Voting
Oredigger77, Hoppy Frood, fluiddruid, Koldanar, , bufftabby

Sorry, I had the last vote count wrong. I listed Thing Fish with 1 vote, even though I had two names listed. This is correct as far as I can tell.

[cckerberos]

Hoppy Frood voted for Oredigger77 in #210

[peekercpa]

Well after getting two votes I guess I need to explain my lack of posts. After looking at the vote count I am most deffinantly not keeping up. Ive posted whenever I had something to say and a couple of times when I thought I didn't have anything to say. Unforunatly I don't have any master stratigies to talk about or grand observations to make. I agree Thing Fish look scummy earlier but not enough for me vote for him. But I also wonder about Master Blaster's continous posting about strategy it seems like he is trying to force us to think in a certain manner which could either be good or bad. Still no vote but at least I explained where I'm coming from.


And this is certainly no defense of BlasterMaster but this early in the game there are dazzingly few data points on which to base any discussion on. Therefore, it seems that talk invariably meanders into the strategy zone. Kind of like talking to semi - strangers. The weather seems to always gets brought up. Kind of clicheish (word ?) But none the less rather universal.

[peekercpa]

NETA: And for this game we are all at square one in my book. If someone has a good idea, in your mind, then endorse it regardless of the relative "experience" of the poster. Conversely if someone is full of it, in your opinion, feel free to express that opinion as well. You may catch a ration of crap either way but that is the baseline for forming further discussion and analysis points.

Once again my savvy one game two cents - Meh.

[peekercpa]

Cog888 BTW I am peekercpa not peekercepa.. Makes it sound like I've got some weird type of infection.

But the pills and ointment do seem to be having an effect, than og.

[Amblydoper]

Vote Count, now with correct spelling!
anyrose - 2 (twickster, Thing Fish)
fluiddruid - 1 (peekercpa)
Oredigger77 - 2 (cckerberos, Hoppy Frood)
bufftabby - 1 (Zsofia)
Thing Fish - 4 (anyrose, Blaster Master, RyJae, The Unkempt One)

Not Voting
Oredigger77, fluiddruid, Koldanar, bufftabby

[Hoopy Frood]

Vote Count, now with correct spelling!

Hah! Says you!

Hoppy Frood

Now I know how Colddinner feels.

[anyrose]

fluff fluff fluff

Just in case you all forgot, if I do not post today, it is not because I am lurking, it is because the firewall is up.


fluff fluff fluff

Have a nice day y'all. ;)

[fluiddruid]

Hi folks,

The last few days for me have been nightmarish. My boss (the only one in my department) is out sick with strep, not sure if he'll be in today, and was out of town for Mother's Day. Got some other things going on too, so haven't had much time for the boards and didn't notice the game had already started until I got a PM.

Hopefully today is a bit slower, and if so, I'll be in shortly. My apologies.

[fluiddruid]

Ergh, it's early, no edit... my boss is the only other person besides me in the department, that is. So busy Monday + no help = just taking a lunch causes stuff to pile up uncontrollably.

[Koldanar]

Cog888 BTW I am peekercpa not peekercepa.. Makes it sound like I've got some weird type of infection.

But the pills and ointment do seem to be having an effect, than og.

Hah....you and Hoppy Frood misspelled...Sweet Justice!

Ok, on to stubstance. People keep bringing up the Thing Fish and anyrose situation (I'd say debaucle, but well it's not there yet). I'm going to have to go back and reread this situation and see what motivations I can get out of it...day one is usually too early for a situation like this to be that cut and dry.

And before I forget, Mod, do the scum have any opportunity to talk and plot during the day as well?

[Zsofia]

It's far enough in that I'll remove my random vote:

[color=red]unvote bufftabby[color]

[Zsofia]

Arrrgh, almost accidentally edited.

unvote bufftabby

[Thing Fish]

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]It may be fair to say scum are more likely to vote for a townie, but even if that is true, it is an implication and not an equivalence, thus it is logically invalid to say that a vote on a townie is more likely to be made by scum, even if the first part is true.

The part that gets me is, you get an OMGUS vote from her, which is expected, and rather than explain that your vote is essentially random (which you now claim it is), you attempt to paint her defensiveness as scummy, and then smudge twickster in the process when she'd already justified her vote as random. You were attacking her as if your vote was based on information, which is was not, and then you act like it's scummy that she doesn't like you jumping on her. Then you tell her not to defend herself, but to find someone else she finds scummy, when few other people have posted anything of consequence, so there's not really anything TO find scummy.

BlaM, it appears that you are not accepting my explanations; it actually appears as though you are not reading them, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on that. I already clarified that I was not telling her not to defend herself, and that I should have stated this more clearly than I did. Frustrating how everyone always talks about wanting to lynch lurkers, but it seems to be the people who are posting who actually get votes.



I find this misleading as well. This sort of "tip to newbies" seems to imply that you have experience, but then you've also said in other posts that you've only followed along a few times, so you're still a newbie. Which way is it?

I'm a newbie who has more experience reading and carefully analyzing games than it appears a lot of the other newbies here do. Sorry if I came off as egotistical, but I prefer that to sitting back and letting the "veterans" like yourself lead everyone around by the nose, because if you happen to be scum, we're all screwed.

[Thing Fish]

Only a minute to post, maybe I'll have time to catch up with the various smudges against me later tonight. I would really warn everyone against putting too much trust in Blaster Master, he comes off as very knowledgable and convincing, but we don't know that he's not scum, and, more to the point, as anyone who read Simpletown knows, even when he is town, he is not infallible.

However, he is quite right that since anyrose is now actively participating and has not let any glaring scumtells drop, I am overdue for moving my vote off her.

unvote anyrose
vote RyJae

Because he's among the lurkiest, and because he has already committed one act (voting for me) which I know to be anti-Town, even if nobody else is buying it.

[bufftabby]

And before I forget, Mod, do the scum have any opportunity to talk and plot during the day as well?

Ok, so this is very strange to me, Koldy. I know you're not like, a newb and stuff, and I'm pretty sure the standard setup is that scum can only communicate at Night. In fact, I pretty much took it for granted that this would be the case. This question seems to me like a scum trying to establish non-scum credibility. "Scum would never have to ask about that, they would already know, so Koldanar can't be scum". That question just rings false with me. Now, if I'm wrong that the standard setup is that scum can only communicate at Night, and this was actually a possibly-legitimate question, I'll cheerfully rescind my suspicion, but that question really pinged me.

vote Koldanar

That, and I'm racist against dwarves.

[Blaster Master]

I wouldn't mind at least a recap of your Simpletown views regarding this subject. It kind of made sense but my brain was not easily able to get wrapped around it totally - I mean look at who I ultimately voted for. Maybe taking the class over would be helpful.

The math, on the other hand, don't bother as far as I am concerned. When it comes to your approach it is as comprehensible to me as, say, Mandarin Chinese. I mean it's kind of fascinating but I don't understand a lick of it and heck I am a CPA so it's not like numbers are foreign animals to me.

I'll try to give a brief recap, and if anyone is confused or whatever, I'll do my best to explain. Either way, it's still something that's difficult to see until you've seen it in action.

The key point to mafia is determining a player's motivation. It's intuitive to look at specific actions as pro-town or anti-town, but this is a poor metric because scum want to appear to be pro-town, and townies can make mistakes. What differentiates these two players is their motivation, a pro-town player may utlimately make many anti-town moves, be he's always motivated by what's best for the town. Similarly, an experienced scum may make many pro-town moves, but he's ultimately motivated by what is best for the scum.

So, what does this mean? This means something that's anti-town isn't necessarily a scum tell, in fact, in some bizarre cases it can actually be a town tell. So let's look at some common scenarios. Let's say a player proposes a strategy that is discovered to be flawed, does that make that player scummy? Well, it's possible that a pro-town player made a strategic mistake, so no, it isn't. Let's say a player is the hammer on a scum, does that make that player townie? Well, it's possible that a scummy player is hammering to gain townie cred, so no, it isn't.

Bottom line, the question you're asking shouldn't be "Is this pro-town or anti-town?" Instead, you should ask yourself this pair of questions "Why would a pro-town player do this?" and "Why would a scum player do this?" If you come up with a simpler and/or more convincing answer to one question that the other, then you have a leaning toward that type of motivation. Once you have a sufficient number of these sorts of situations, you should start to see a pattern emerge. In general, there won't be a huge difference between one motivation and the other, but multiple Days and multiple votes, it should start to stand out when re-evaluated.

The only real catch to this is, you have to consider potential power roles as well. Something may not seem like it has pro-town motivation, but when you also consider that it was possibly said by the doctor or the detective or a mason, it may change the light.

[anyrose]

oh, I am so now, more than ever, convinced I voted correctly. ;)

[Blaster Master]

I think I'm beginning to understand the rationale. I'll have to mull it over to truly grasp the nuances of the various outcomes. Just two more questions (and understand, I'm not trying to be annoying or provocative or anything; I really do like to understand the various strategies so I can see how they work with my style of play and to see if I can maybe improve on them, point out their flaws, or use them to possibly pick up on something others have missed):

1) How do Mason types, with their extra knowledge, fit in to doing random voting? Are they always going to maintain a truly random vote? Is it wise for them to do so? If they don't can they cause a skew in the town vs. scum random voting and muck things up? When they are revealed as Masons, does that color their random votes from Day One?

They experience a similar issue because they're the only players, besides scum, who actually have special knowledge at the outset of the first Day. And yes, they will also follow the same sort of trend. The key point, of course, is that the masons are smaller and have less information, so it will have less of an impact. It's usually not an issue though because by the time this sort of information becomes useful during the end-game, the masons are generally already known.

2) Would you advocate a "mass random vote" on Day 1 before any rationale-based votes are cast? I don't think it's ever been done (at least, I've never seen it discussed in any game I've looked through), but I'd expect it might be an interesting way to start the game, and would establish a voting record for everybody.

AFAIK, this is how most non-SDMB games start. In fact, I think many of them just random vote the first Day and then go from there. I DO still believe there would be potential for some useful information in this case, but that would require application of my pet PRH project.

[fluiddruid]

I think you can look at RoOsh and storyteller for two very opposing viewpoints on townies hiding data and outright lying.

RoOsh, if I remember correctly, LOVES townies lying to 'protect' information, or a strategy, etc. On the other hand, I've seen story go absolutely nuts about lying. He's fine with keeping information secret, but justifying that information (In the Batman game, for instance, he didn't tell anyone he was a doc until day 7 or 8). Establishing trust between us is a good reason for not lying; however sometimes information getting out at the wrong time can definitely hurt the town. FWIW, I agree with Story on this, with the exception of power roles (who I believe should generally self-protect at greater cost). Liars are all too often scum and if you take away the 'lynch liars' philosophy then it becomes quite unreasonably difficult to lynch scum even with very strong tells.

Why would you think that? A random vote portends nothing. Since people don't tend to stick with random votes by the end of the Day, without good reason, I can't see a compelling reason for scum to add bias to a random vote by not randomly voting one of their own. In fact, they might intentionally random vote one of their own just because someone might expect them not to, in which case there's now a WIFOM situation.This discussion seems to come up every Day. In short, you should never consider a vote truly random. Scum tells are never random. I would think most scum players would avoid random voting for another scum player; while I could see more experienced scum players doing it, it's a risky move. Votes tend to stick when you least expect them to.

Townies can random vote at least to prod people but midway into Day 1 they should be discarded. It shouldn't be permissible for players to vote randomly because it gives scum an out for not justifying their votes. I'll tell you right now I'll consider it scummy if people leave random votes on at the end of the day.

Now for some more substantial stuff: who to vote for...

After reading the thread over once, I'd like to get something down, though I do plan to revisit it. My biggest impression is: peekercpa, yeesh, who peed in your cornflakes? While I'll admit you seem to be sticking your neck out pretty far for scum, you also seem a lot different from the last game - very irritable and a bit bossy, frankly.

Further, because of this, I doubt strongly you're a power role of any significance, as I bet you'd be playing the cards closer to the vest if you were. As such, you're a safe opening vote.

vote peekercpa

Also, could we please get who votes for who when we get vote counts? Straight up counts are useful only to a point and it'll come in particularly handy when we start getting a lot more voting/unvoting to see where votes actually lie.

[anyrose]

Also, could we please get who votes for who when we get vote counts? Straight up counts are useful only to a point and it'll come in particularly handy when we start getting a lot more voting/unvoting to see where votes actually lie.


that's exactly what we've been getting (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9796229&postcount=223)

[Blaster Master]

This one is solely from my limited knowlege so I'll muck it up then someone smarter than me can feel free to correct or fill in. And although I don't want to get deep down in the calculations BlasterMaster's PRH statement is very valid at a layperson's level.

One would think that for a population of fourteen that if everything was totally equal and truly random that each of us would end up with one vote. At least that is the mind set that I come from. However, truly random is going to be more bell shaped with a couple of unfortunates getting multiple votes while some get none. Therefore, take what would be predicted and see where that "bell" gets flattened or spiked. Figure out why and who and you have a scum manipulating the results.

It's kind of like those poor souls at the casinos tracking red versus black and betting on what is perceived is a trend. You don't get to stay in a penthouse and have your own private Lear doing that long term. Well you may get to stay in the penthouse depending on how much you lose. :)

And if I totally mutilated this discussion/point I am willing to be educated. I got a 26 on my first college stat class test and promptly dropped.

Fairly close, the only part I'd take issue with is the mention of a "bell curve", as that would imply a normal distribution. Instead, we'd assume that everyone who isn't scum (or mason) has no additional knowledge, then we can expect that those votes can be modeled with a uniform distribution. We can also expect that those WITH knowledge will attempt to look like they're voting like the rest, and those attempt to vote from the same uniform distribution.

But, as you correctly say, we have a strong intuitive sense that unformly random means evenly spaced out. In practice, this is not true, there will be clusters. Thus, we can expect that those voting with no additional information will be truly random (from a uniform distribution), and those with special information will be pseudo-random (evenly spaced out).

What does this mean Today? Not a whole lot, because we will only know the identity of whomever we lynch and whichever role claims occur and we believe. However, after several Days, patterns WILL emerge. I encourage you to go back and look at my analysis of MindWanderer in Simpletown for a good example of the type of pattern this will generate.

[Blaster Master]

Not really. What you'd expect is that over the long-term each person should get roughly the same number of votes if voting was truly random. Over the short-term you'd expect to get all kind of aberrations. That's the thing about BM's Pseudo-Random Strategy that I don't quite get. I understand his logic concerning the difference between truly random and pseudo-random votes being significant. I mean, it's why in cryptography only the one-time pad (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_time_pad) is truly unbreakable. But I'm not convinced that there are enough "random" votes cast by any given player in a given Mafia game to provide a broad enough data set to provide good analysis.

Okay, well, there's a point in there that I didn't make explicitly and that might be where you're getting stuck. You're right that if Day One went for ever, we would expect about the same number for votes for everyone, and the pattern for the sucm would emerge, but this isn't the case. Townie votes are only truly uniformly distributed on the first Day. Each Day, the votes of the townies moves somewhat from a uniform distribution to some other distribution determined by the available information. Also, I treat each Day as an independent event, because there is a decided break in the amount of information available between each Day.

However, the point remains valid. On Day One, the scum will attempt to emulate a uniform distribution because it's obvious. On future Days, they'll attempt to emulate whatever the new distribution is. What you'll still notice is that scum will still tend not to cluster, even in a new distribution.

The other point is, this idea won't catch ALL scum, because some scum, but I'm confident that it can be used successfully on at least some scum in every game.

[Oredigger77]

Well here is another attempt for me not to be branded a lurker. A lot of the strategies whether looking at motivations or votes only seem to be reasonable at the end of the game and really not that useful to discuss right now. It seems in the short term we are either looking for mistakes or just jumping on whoever looks the weakest link in the town’s knowledge gathering attempt. If I am missing something to watch for in the short term let me know but as I haven't seen either yet I'm still going to withhold my vote.

[Blaster Master]

Ok, I'll bite (just not hard). What can I do to make this more "newb" friendly? I mean I want the town to win but will also participate in any discussion that makes the new blood more willing to come back again. The idea of sitting around with some of the current vets and rehashing old shit while we drool and crap ourselves is a wee bit depressing.

All of this is offered with the reality that I have played in one game. I voted for the Doc, two town, a lurker and a Detective identified scum. As stated before I am willing to educate by walking into the mine field and getting blown up. Kind of along the lines of FCS don't do this.

Yes, I'm sorry if I'm giving some shell shock to some of the new blood. I realize I'm making a lot of references to other games, and I'm not doing it to make you all feel bad but, instead, to provide a frame of reference for my reasoning. That is, I can say that something is a scum tell, but then you all are stuck either believing or not believing me. If I tell you that something is a scum tell and reference a historical case, veterans can either confirm or deny me based on that AND anyone who is willing can go back and read about it and decide for themselves.

The unfortunately part to this game is that, giving examples just doesn't always work, sometimes you just have to see it happen to understand what's going on. A good example of this is that I can say that sometimes scum will throw other scum under the bus to get townie cred. Well, sure, but how exactly would they go about it? If I reference storyteller in M2, or Idle Thoughts in MV, you can now go back and see how they went about doing it.

But please, if I use a term or make a reference that doesn't make sense, please just ask me, and I'll try my best to clarify.

[anyrose]

you all do seem to love the "sound of your own voices" :D:D

[The Unkempt One]

you all do seem to love the "sound of your own voices" :D:D

says the queen of fluff.

:D

[Blaster Master]

Well after getting two votes I guess I need to explain my lack of posts. After looking at the vote count I am most deffinantly not keeping up. Ive posted whenever I had something to say and a couple of times when I thought I didn't have anything to say. Unforunatly I don't have any master stratigies to talk about or grand observations to make. I agree Thing Fish look scummy earlier but not enough for me vote for him. But I also wonder about Master Blaster's continous posting about strategy it seems like he is trying to force us to think in a certain manner which could either be good or bad. Still no vote but at least I explained where I'm coming from.

FTR, yes, I tend to do a lot of strategy posting, particularly on Day One. IME, this is fairly usual. We don't have a lot to go on except unsubstantiable suspicion, and randomness. The point is, talking is good. We get a good idea for where people are coming from and how they think. We also get people on the record, which helps us find scum.

If we had a game where it was themed or we knew more about the set-up, we'd be able to discuss those aspects, but we don't know anything, so all we can do is talk general strategy. I'm not making an attempt to force my thoughts on anyone. I am trying to play transparently so that my actions, decisions, and strategies aren't seen has having no logical basis.

To reitterate my point about motivation, if I'm scum, you could be right. But if I'm town, wouldn't it also make sense to share some of my thoughts and my experience so that we can all benefit? I fought a lot of this in the Simpletown game, and a lot of people kept thinking the same sort of thing, and that's because you're asking the wrong question, because there is at least as pro-town motivation for general strategizing as there is anti-town motivation.

So, my question to you is, do you disagree with anything I've said? Does it seem misleading? Is it illogical? If so, point it out and we can talk about it, but just saying this sort of thing is a smudge, and it's unproductive at best, and scummy at worst.

[Blaster Master]

BlaM, it appears that you are not accepting my explanations; it actually appears as though you are not reading them, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on that. I already clarified that I was not telling her not to defend herself, and that I should have stated this more clearly than I did. Frustrating how everyone always talks about wanting to lynch lurkers, but it seems to be the people who are posting who actually get votes.

This seems a little disingenuous here. I have read all of your posts. I never said that you said "anyrose, don't defend yourself". Instead, what I'm reading how it comes across. When you suggest she should look for other scummy people, it implies that she shouldn't counter the accusations against her.

The point is, she should always be looking for scummy people, that's a given. But she should also defend herself. The way you stated it, it implied that she shouldn't, and I'm not the only one who read that implication.

This is a strawman argument.

I'm a newbie who has more experience reading and carefully analyzing games than it appears a lot of the other newbies here do. Sorry if I came off as egotistical, but I prefer that to sitting back and letting the "veterans" like yourself lead everyone around by the nose, because if you happen to be scum, we're all screwed.

I don't have an issue with big egos, at least as far as mafia goes. Townies can have just as big egos as scum. The point is, you at first mention you're a newbie, perhaps to get some leniency. Then you make a statement that doesn't explicitly say, but again, implies that you have some level experience. This could be an attempt to build trust in your judgment. Either way, it's a blatant contradiction and I wanted a response to it.

This is another strawman argument.

[Koldanar]

Ok, so this is very strange to me, Koldy. I know you're not like, a newb and stuff, and I'm pretty sure the standard setup is that scum can only communicate at Night. In fact, I pretty much took it for granted that this would be the case. This question seems to me like a scum trying to establish non-scum credibility. "Scum would never have to ask about that, they would already know, so Koldanar can't be scum". That question just rings false with me. Now, if I'm wrong that the standard setup is that scum can only communicate at Night, and this was actually a possibly-legitimate question, I'll cheerfully rescind my suspicion, but that question really pinged me.

vote Koldanar

That, and I'm racist against dwarves.

God you height-gifted snobs! :D

It was a clarification and nothing more; I know some games in the past have allowed fluffy interactions between scum, and with it not being explicitly stated I wanted it to be clear. If they had a chance to talk at all, they can strategize, and that can give us some pattern to watch for. Kinda hoping this type of discussion is restricted to nights for them though, as that can be an extra edge too? I'm a cautious person; go ahead and look at my history. I check these things over, and I agonize over day one lynches. It's my thing.

[Blaster Master]

Only a minute to post, maybe I'll have time to catch up with the various smudges against me later tonight. I would really warn everyone against putting too much trust in Blaster Master, he comes off as very knowledgable and convincing, but we don't know that he's not scum, and, more to the point, as anyone who read Simpletown knows, even when he is town, he is not infallible.

This is what we call a smudge. Yes, as far as anyone else knows, I could be scum. This is a given. But this is true of ANYONE's arguments, including yours. This doesn't make any sort of attempt to rebut any of my arguments or my logic. This is, at best, the pot calling the kettle black.

And really, I'm not infallible? Yes, we all make mistakes, I never claimed or attempted to imply that I'm infallible. What's the point of this?

However, he is quite right that since anyrose is now actively participating and has not let any glaring scumtells drop, I am overdue for moving my vote off her.

unvote anyrose
vote RyJae

Because he's among the lurkiest, and because he has already committed one act (voting for me) which I know to be anti-Town, even if nobody else is buying it.

??? Wait a minute, so you act all suspicious of anyrose for throwing an OMGUS vote on you, and you turn around and do the exact same to RyJae? How is voting for you anti-town? If so, wouldn't that same logic make all of those voting for you scum?

[anyrose]

Thing Fish is doing a lot of backpeddling. That's a sure sign of someone who cannot keep thier lies straight in their head.

[Blaster Master]

oh, I am so now, more than ever, convinced I voted correctly. ;)

I appreciate that you probably have precious little time to post at work (unlike some of us), but I'd appreciate if you could ellaborate on this point.