Which first-world countries are going to be least affected by the credit crunch?

[Quartz]

And why?

[Diceman]

Dude, you've been around for over 6 years. Certainly you realize that GQ is the wrong forum for this question.

[Quartz]

Dude, you've been around for over 6 years. Certainly you realize that GQ is the wrong forum for this question.

I'm hoping that there is a GQ answer. If there isn't then the mods should feel free to move it.

[Chief Pedant]

It seems like a GQ question to me, but for developed countries (I guess I was thinking "First -world" is politically incorrect and you know how picky I am about that ;) ) I think it's way too early to say.

We don't even know what effect it's going to have on the US and until that prognostication is in, it's hard to know what the ripple will be. Part of the difficulty is that this is one of those crises where a nation's leaders tend to say "We are fine" in order to avoid furthering any self-fulfilling panic.

[Quartz]

The BBC is reporting (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7635327.stm) that France is weathering the storm well.

[Cerowyn]

Canada and Japan will both suffer, but predominantly from the fallout to the U.S. economy, not because of any domestic banking woes. The banking industry in both countries is much more conservative than the U.S.. Japan, in particular, got burned badly when the real estate "bubble" burst in the late '80s. The fallout stagnated the economy for a decade, and the banks are only just now beginning to consolidate and emerge back on their feet.

Canada simply has had a traditionally more conservative regulatory environment. The Bank Act, often decried as overly restrictive by the major banks, is quite comprehensive.

[Quartz]

Bump.

Is it still too early to make an actual determination?

[GreedySmurf]

The knock-on effects of the GFC. (New acronym I learnt last week - Global Financial Crisis :p ) are so wide reaching it is hard to say.

Purely from a finance sector perspective Australia will come out of it alright. The Banking sector in Australia is highly regulated, and as such isn't anywhere near as exposed as a lot of the the banks in the US.

While they are feeling the pinch of the lack of liquidity in the credit markets, and a couple have small* exposures to the sub prime market they are ticking along OK. The government guarantee on deposits help the Banks as well - not so much the investment funds who are crying foul.

We are seeing some of the smaller players selling up or merging, but the 'Big Four' will be fine in terms of direct damage from the credit crunch.

As to the rest of economy as a whole? Who knows. Commodity prices are coming off which always hurts Australia, and it could be argued that that is ultimately a flow on effect of the credit crisis.


*Small in this case being a relative term, National Australia Bank has written off ~$1.4 Billion, a couple of others writing of ~$500M.

[Leaffan]

I've heard Canada will suffer the least. I'm too lazy to find a cite, but this is what we are being told.

[Sunspace]

I've heard Canada will suffer the least. I'm too lazy to find a cite, but this is what we are being told.Well, I missed the round of layoffs we had last week at work, so I'm okay for now. And nationally we've had budget surpluses and a decreasing national debt for the past ten years, so we're not tied down in the same way that the US is. And our banks aren't quite as exposed to this whole 'we don't know how much it's worth either' thing.

On the other hand, if the US goes 'splud', it'll drag us down with it.

[Rysto]

I've heard Canada will suffer the least. I'm too lazy to find a cite, but this is what we are being told.
We'll see. IIRC, 2001 was the first time ever that the US suffered a recession while Canada did not. What's the figure -- 2/3rds? -- of our exports go to the US?

[RickJay]

We'll see. IIRC, 2001 was the first time ever that the US suffered a recession while Canada did not. What's the figure -- 2/3rds? -- of our exports go to the US?
There's little doubt a recession is coming, but that is not precisely what the OP asked. The OP asked, specifically, about the credit crisis.

It's indisputably true that Canada's banks and credit markets are in comparatively good shape, put next to the USA or Europe.

[Askance]

We in Australia seem to be comparatively well-placed. All our major banks are sound, we've been running federal government surpluses for years, and demand for our main exports like food and minerals is robust. China is still buying pretty much all the coal and iron ore we can dig up.

Which makes the precipitous decline of our dollar vis a vis the US dollar particularly puzzling, to me.

[Cat Whisperer]

Canada is similary positioned to Australia (running surpluses, paying down debt, robust economy, etc.), and our dollar has tanked, too. I don't quite understand it, either.