NFL Playoffs Prediction Contest

[SenorBeef]

Sorry for starting this late. I had the idea a few days ago but it slipped my mind. Hopefully we can get some entries before game time Saturday.

There will be 2 components of this contest. One will be picking your predicted playoff brackets before the playoffs begin. The other will be predicting the score of each game, once known, week to week.

Part 1. We already know who will play the wild card weekend games. We also know one opponent in the divisional games - the #1 and #2 seeds. So I'm only leaving the unknowns as blanks. You don't have to get both right to get credit - you get 5 points for correctly identified team, and 10 for picking the eventual superbowl winner.

1.
Predict the divisional games (5 points per correct team)

AFC:
Tennessee Titans vs _____
Pittsburgh Steelers vs ______

NFC:
New York Giants vs _____
Carolina Panthers vs _____

2.
Predict the championship games (5 points per team)

AFC:
______ vs _______

NFC:

______ vs _______

3. Predict the superbowl (5 points per team)

______ vs _______

4. Predict the superbowl winner (10 points)


Part 2. This section will be the weekly predictions of the score of each game. Scoring is determined by the total number of points a prediction is off from the actual score of each team (not the combined score) with 5 points being awarded (subtracted) for picking the actual winner.

For example, if you predict team A will score 13 and Team B will score 20, and the actual score is Team A 20, Team B 35, your score would be (7 off from team A's actual score + 15 off from Team B's actual score) = 22. Since you correctly picked the winner, 5 is subtracted. Total is 17. Lower is better.

At the end of this contest, the score from part 1 (more is better) will be subtracted from the score of part 2 (less is better) to determine your total score. So if you score 30 points in part 1, and 50 in part 2, your total will be 20 points.


Sample entry: This is not intended to be my actual prediction entry, I'll do that in a day or two. I'm just plugging in teams/numbers to give an example of what I'm looking for:

1. Divisional Games
AFC Titans vs Colts
Steelers vs Dolphins

NFC Giants vs Falcons
Panthers vs Vikings

2. Championships
AFC Titans vs Dolphins
NFC Giants vs Panthers

3. Superbowl
Titans vs Giants

4. Superbowl Winner Titans

Part 2, wildcard weekend
AFC
Dolphins 24, Ravens 17
Chargers 13, Colts 20

NFC
Minnesota 17, Philadelphia 13
Arizona 24, Atlanta 31


And then the next week I would submit a new part 2, covering the predicted scores of the divisional games. So part 1 is submitted once, before the playoffs begin, and part 2 is submitted every week once we know what the games are, before the games actually begin.

Questions/comments?

[Cuckoorex]

I would put part 2 first, since it covers the Wild Card games, and it seems kind of backwards to predict the Super Bowl winners before the scores of the Wild Card games. Maybe I'm misreading what you're proposing here, though.

[SenorBeef]

Well, they both have to be submitted before the start of the first game on Saturday. Part 1 is a section that will only have to be filled out once, whereas part 2 will require a weekly entry throughout the playoffs.

It doesn't particularly matter what the order is - in this case both part 1 and this week's part 2 would have to be submitted before the first game.

[furt]

I'd do this week-by-week, rather than doing a whole bracket. One wild card that advances to the SB could make everyone's bracket a mess. What happens if I predict the Eagles to win this week, and they lose? Do the Vikings "inherit" the score I predicted for the Eagles?

I'll play for the WC round:

Atlanta 27
Arizona 24

Baltimore 17
Miami 14

Indy 24
SD 21

Philly 20
Minn 17

[SenorBeef]

Sorry if I wasn't clear. It's essentially 2 contests. The main contest is what you just did, predicting the scores week to week. The other contest is sort of like a bonus round - creating a playoff bracket. The scoring for the bracket part will be less significant than the main score guessing part - and you wouldn't lose any points by guessing incorrectly, it's just a bonus if you get it right.

So if you also submit a playoff bracket, you'd be all set. Then next week you'd just predict scores again once we know what the games are.

[furt]

Ah. I get it now.


Divisional Games
Titans vs Colts
Steelers vs Fins

Giants vs Iggles
Panthers vs Falcons


Championships
Titans vs Steelers
Giants vs Panthers

Superbowl
Steelers vs Panthers


Superbowl Winner
Panthers

[Fear the Turtle]

Part 1 Bracket

Ravens vs Titans
Indy vs Steelers

Vikings vs Panthers
Falcons vs NYG

Ravens vs Indy
Panthers vs NYG

Super Bowl
Ravens vs Panthers

SB Winner
Ravens

Part 2:

Indy 27
Bolts 17

Ravens 17
Fins 6

Atl 24
Arz 13

Minn 17
Philly 10

[CatInASuit]

Let's give it a whirl.

Part 1. Teams

1. Division Round

AFC:
Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

NFC:
New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons

2. Championship round

AFC: Titans vs Steelers
NFC: Giants vs Panthers

3. Superbowl

Titans vs Giants

4. Superbowl winners

Tennessee Titans


Part 2: Wildcard Weekend Scores
AFC
Dolphins 17, Ravens 24
Chargers 10, Colts 24

NFC
Minnesota 17, Philadelphia 10
Arizona 21, Atlanta 31

[VarlosZ]

Neat idea, Beef. I look forward to coming back from a huge early deficit to win this thing . . . or else giving up a big lead at the end to lose it.


Part 1.

Divisional Round
Philadelphia Eagles @ NY Giants
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Conference Championships
Carolina Panthers @ NY Giants
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans

Super Bowl
Carolina Panther vs. Tennessee Titans

Super Bowl Winner
Tennessee Titans


Part 2.

Atlanta 31, Arizona 24
Philadelphia 31, Minnesota 14

San Diego 24, Indianapolis 21
Baltimore 24, Miami 17

[borschevsky]

1. Divisional Games
Titans vs Ravens
Steelers vs Chargers

Giants vs Eagles
Panthers vs Falcons

2. Championships
Titans vs Steelers
Giants vs Panthers

3. Superbowl
Steelers vs Giants

4. Superbowl Winner
Giants

Part 2, wildcard weekend
AFC
Dolphins 13, Ravens 24
Chargers 28, Colts 24

NFC
Minnesota 13, Philadelphia 31
Arizona 17, Atlanta 31

[Hamlet]

Let's see if my NFL Prognostication skills are up to snuff, even though all evidence so far collected shows the opposite.


1. Divisional Games

AFC

Titans vs Ravens
Steelers vs Colts

NFC

Giants vs Eagles
Panthers vs Falcons

2. Championships

AFC

Titans vs Colts

NFC

Giants vs Panthers

3. Superbowl

Colts vs Panthers

4. Superbowl Winner

Colts

Part 2

Wildcard weekend

AFC

Dolphins 16, Ravens 9
Colts 31, Chargers 20

NFC

Philadelphia 27, Vikings 13
Atlanta 31, Arizona 28

[ToeJam]

1. Divisional Games
AFC Titans vs Colts
Steelers vs Ravens

NFC Giants vs Cardinals
Panthers vs Eagles

2. Championships
AFC Colts vs Steelers
NFC Giants vs Panthers

3. Superbowl
Colts vs Giants

4. Superbowl Winner Colts

Part 2, wildcard weekend
AFC
Dolphins 17, Ravens 20
Chargers 17, Colts 24

NFC
Minnesota 17, Philadelphia 24
Arizona 24, Atlanta 20

[MHaye]

Let's give this a go.

Part 1. Predict the progression of the playoffs.

1.
Predict the divisional games (5 points per correct team)
AFC:
Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts

NFC:
New York Giants vs Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings

2.
Predict the championship games (5 points per team)
AFC:
Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts

NFC:
New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers

3. Predict the superbowl (5 points per team)
Indianapolis Colts vs New York Giants

4. Predict the superbowl winner (10 points)
Indianapolis Colts

That's come out somewhat differently than my previous prediction, mostly because I didn't look closely enough at who played who in the Divisional games.


Part 2. Predict the weekend's scores.

AFC
Indianapolis Colts 31 San Diego Chargers 21
Baltimore Ravens 13 Miami Dolphins 6

NFC
Atlanta Falcons 22 Arizona Cardinals 21
Philadephia Eagles 10 Minnesota Vikings 27

(Let's be honest, those numbers were pulled out of a hat, because I suck at predicting actual scores.)

[DiggitCamara]

Part 1
AFC:
Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

NFC:
New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons

2.
Predict the championship games (5 points per team)

AFC:
Steelers vs Colts

NFC:

Eagles vs Panthers

3. Predict the superbowl (5 points per team)

Steelers vs Panthers

4. Predict the superbowl winner (10 points)
Steelers

Part 2, wildcard weekend
AFC

Indy 28
SD 24

Baltimore 10
Miami 3

NFC

Atlanta 31
Arizona 10

Philly 30
Minn 7

[Weirddave]

Round 1

Ravens v Titans
Colts v Steelers

Eagles v Giants
Falcons v Panthers

Round 2

Ravens v Steelers

Eagles v Panthers

SB

Ravens over Panthers


Wildcard Round:

Ravens 21 Fins 13
Colts 42 Bolts 31

Eagles 17 Vikes 10
Falcons 20 Cards 10

[vinniepaz]

Part 1 Bracket

Ravens vs Titans
Indy vs Steelers

Falcons vs Panthers
Eagles vs NYG

Ravens vs Indy
Eagles vs Falcons

Super Bowl
Indy vs Eagles

SB Winner
Indy

Part 2:

Indy 31
Bolts 24

Ravens 24
Fins 6

Atl 24
Arz 10

Minn 17
Philly 24

[SenorBeef]

In at the last minute... the AFC North teams will probably go further than I predict, but I'm letting my hopes guide my decisions here..

Part 1.

Divsional

Titans vs Ravens
Steelers vs Indy

Giants vs Eagles
Panthers vs Falcons

Championships

Titans vs Indy

Giants vs Panthers

Superbowl

Panthers vs Indy, Panthers win

Part 2, wildcard weekend

Dolphins 13, Ravens 20
Colts 31, Chargers 24

Eagles 24, Vikings 17
Atlanta 34, Arizona 27

[Marley23]

AFC: Ravens over Dolphins
Colts over Chargers

Steelers over Ravens
Colts over Titans

Steelers over Colts

NFC: Falcons over Cardinals
Eagles over Vikings

Giants over Eagles
Panthers over Falcons

Panthers over Giants

Panthers beat the Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII

[SenorBeef]

You'll need to include your predictions of this week's scores (quickly) if you want to be in the running.

[mhendo]

AFC: Ravens over Dolphins
Colts over Chargers

Steelers over Ravens
Colts over Titans
As i understand it, if the Ravens win tomorrow, they will play Tennessee and not Pittsburgh next week. The Ravens are the #6 seed, so if they win they face #1.

[SenorBeef]

Results for the weekly scores (lower is better):

VarlosZ 19
Ro0sh 28
Borchevsky 30
Furt 31
SenorBeef 34
VinniePaz 36
Hamlet 48
CatInASuit 59
Fear The Turtle 60
DiggitCamara 61
MHaye 68
Weirddave 70

Double check your own score just in case. Keep in mind there's a 5 point bonus for picking the winning team.

Almost everyone nailed the Phi/Min game. For some reason a lot of people picked 31 for the Colts score.

Games nailed to within 5 (scores of 0 or less) = Varlos got 0 for both Phi/Min and SD/Ind; Hamlet got -3 for Phi/Min; ro0sh, VinniePaz and SenorBeef 0 for Phi/Min.
Fear the Turtle and VinniePaz both hit Atlanta's score exactly at 24, Varlos hit Minnesota's 14.

Furthest off scores were Weirddave, 33 off Ind/SD and Mhaya 29 off Phi/Min.

All in all, a pretty good week for us I'd say.

[ToeJam]

Gah! I screwed up my bracket, I had Titans vs. Colts, and Steelers vs. Ravens. It actually WILL be Titans vs. Ravens, but I just made an error in my thinking as I didn't think about seedings! Even if both teams had advaned Ravens would have had to play the Titans. Bah!
-_-

[Weirddave]

Results for the weekly scores (lower is better):

VarlosZ 19
Ro0sh 28
Borchevsky 30
Furt 31
SenorBeef 34
VinniePaz 36
Hamlet 48
CatInASuit 59
Fear The Turtle 60
DiggitCamara 61
MHaye 68
Weirddave 70


So you say. I'm gonna pretend the opposite.

[furt]

Round 2

Bal 20 Tenn 14
Pitt 24 SD 20

NYG 21 Phi 20
Caro 31 Ari 21

[ToeJam]

Round 2

Bal 20 Tenn 17
Pitt 24 SD 17

NYG 20 Phi 24
Caro 24 Ari 21

[Hamlet]

I'm not dead yet. Only mostly dead.

Round 2

Tenn 16
Balt 9

Pitts 31
SD 13

NYG 27
Phila 26

Car 31
Ariz 22

[Fear the Turtle]

Hoping to get things back on track:

Bal 17
Tenn 13

Pitt 24
SD 17

NYG 31
Phi 17

Car 27
Arz 17

[CatInASuit]

Second verse, same as the first.....

AFC
Titans: 24 Ravens: 17
Steelers: 31 Chargers: 24

NFC:
Giants: 17 Eagles: 10
Carolina: 27 Cardinals: 17

[VarlosZ]

Tennesse 21, Baltimore 14
Pittsburgh 24, San Diego 17

Carolina 28, Arizona 21
New York 24, Philadelphia 21

[borschevsky]

Titans 20, Ravens 13
Chargers 20, Steelers 17

Giants 31, Eagles 13
Panthers 31, Cardinals 17

[SenorBeef]

Those of you who haven't posted yet - get your scores in before the start of the first game today.


I notice we pick a lot of similar scores. I wonder if people are following the leader or we're all coming to the same conclusions for the same reasons.


Titans 20, Ravens 13
Steelers 27, Chargers 13

Giants 30, Eagles 23
Panthers 30, Arizona 17

[furt]

I notice we pick a lot of similar scores. I wonder if people are following the leader or we're all coming to the same conclusions for the same reasons.
1) Lotta good defenses.
2) Lotta conservative offenses.

Outside of turnovers/returns, it's hard to see any high-scoring games here. Or any blowouts outside of Caro-Ari So everybody's picking 20-17 type games.

[SenorBeef]

If anyone new wants to throw some scores out this week, go ahead. You won't be in the running for the overall competition, but you can see where you stack up in the weekly scores.

[DiggitCamara]

Bal 6
Tenn 20

Pitt 24
SD 9

NYG 18
Phi 21

Car 24
Arz 7

[Mince]

Pittsburgh 226, San Diego 4 (overtime)

Carolina 4, Arizona 2 (58 overtimes)

Baltimore 5,232, Tennessee 5,231

N.Y. Giants 19.058, Philadelphia 19.043 (overtime)




Hope I win.

[MHaye]

Time for more cut-from-whole-cloth score predictions.

AFC
Baltimore Ravens 10 Tennessee Titans 20
San Diego Chargers 14 Pittsburgh Steelers 30

NFC
Arizona Cardinals 20 Carolina Panthers 35
Philadelphia Eagles 21 New York Giants 28

[VarlosZ]

I notice we pick a lot of similar scores. I wonder if people are following the leader or we're all coming to the same conclusions for the same reasons.
I think it's because it's a contest. Even if you close your eyes and have a premonition of a high scoring blowout, chances are you'll do better by throwing out a prediction that isn't too far from the margin in the point spread and the point total in the Over/Under, leading to a lot of generic predictions of the Favorite 24, Underdog 17 variety.

[Mince]

Pittsburgh 0, Baltimore -5 (A defensive struggle to be sure)

Philadelphia 2 times the square root of 19, Arizona the square root of 85 (in the square root of 5 overtimes)

[ToeJam]

Ravens over Steelers 24-21 (I actually think the teams will be reversed with same score though, but I'm gonna root with my own here).
Cardinals over Eagles 24-17

[borschevsky]

Steelers 20 - Ravens 9
Cards 27 - Eagles 20

[rexnervous]

Just for shits and giggles, as I wasn't part of the original contest...

Steelers 24, Ravens 13

Cardinals 30, Eagles 20

[VarlosZ]

A score update would be cool.


Eagles 28, Cardinals 17
Pittsburgh 24, Baltimore 10

[SenorBeef]

A score update would be cool.


Yeah, sorry, slipped my mind.


This week's scores:

Ro0sh 50
Furt 59
CatInASuit 66
VarlosZ 66
Hamlet 68
Fear The Turtle 71
SenorBeef 76
MHaye 77
DiggitCamara 84
xBorchevsky 96
Mince 10693.015

Closest picks by total score:
Ro0sh NYG/PHI 5
Fear The Turtle BAL/TEN 2
CatInASuit PIT/SD -1
DiggitCamara NYG/PHI 4

Total score so far:

Ro0sh 78
VarlosZ 85
Furt 90
SenorBeef 110
Hamlet 116
CatInASuit 125
Borchevsky 126
Fear The Turtle 131
MHaye 145
DiggitCamara 145

VinniePaz and Weirddave were disqualified due to having no week 2 entry.

Double check your own scores, I may have made a mistake.

[Fear the Turtle]

Arizona 27 Philly 17
Ravens 16 Steelers 14

Bonus Prediction: Little Ben bitches out and turns the ball over 3 times (2 picks, 1 fumble).

[DiggitCamara]

...truly and really: I suck at this!

Still

Ravens 10 Steelers 24
Eagles 24 Cardinals 7

[furt]

Pitt 24 Bal 13
Philly 31 Ari 21

[DiggitCamara]

Yeah, sorry, slipped my mind.


This week's scores:

Ro0sh 50
Furt 59
CatInASuit 66
VarlosZ 66
Hamlet 68
Fear The Turtle 71
SenorBeef 76
MHaye 77
DiggitCamara 84
xBorchevsky 96
Mince 10693.015

Closest picks by total score:
Ro0sh NYG/PHI 5
Fear The Turtle BAL/TEN 2
CatInASuit PIT/SD -1
DiggitCamara NYG/PHI 4

Total score so far:

Ro0sh 78
VarlosZ 85
Furt 90
SenorBeef 110
Hamlet 116
CatInASuit 125
Borchevsky 126
Fear The Turtle 131
MHaye 145
DiggitCamara 145

VinniePaz and Weirddave were disqualified due to having no week 2 entry.

Double check your own scores, I may have made a mistake.
Wait-a-minute... I was just about the only one who got two winners right, wasn't I? AND I got the closest score on the NYG-PHI game? And I STILL got 3rd. to last place? HOW DO I DO THAT?

By now I'm just hoping to beat Mince and his/her results...

P.S.: Mince? How come you're not using imaginary numbers?

P.P.S.: SenorBeef: How are you even computing his/her results, anyway?

[CatInASuit]

So with my superbowl guess shot to pieces.

AFC
Ravens 10 Steelers 14

NFC
Eagles 14 Cardinals 27

[Weirddave]

VinniePaz and Weirddave were disqualified due to having no week 2 entry.



Yea, I got your PM reminding me to pick when I got home from watching the Raven's game. S'ok, I woulda picked the Cats and the Giants along with the Birds and the Stillers, so it's not like I'd have gone anywhere. Just FTR, for this week:

Ravens 16 Steelers 7

Eagles 21 Cards 17

[Hamlet]

So with my superbowl guess shot to pieces.That sounds familiar.

I'll go with

AFC

Ravens 10 Steelers 24

NFC

Eagles 34 Cardinals 24

[SenorBeef]

Ravens 13, Steelers 20
Eagles 24, Cardinals 21

[CatInASuit]

So just how inaccurate are we then.

Any chance of a score update?

[Mince]

Pittsburgh 2, Arizona 0 (212 overtimes)

Pro Bowl: AFC 0, NFC 0 (2,515 overtimes--before giving up)

[SenorBeef]

Conference championship scores (lower is better)


rexnervous -1
borchevsky 8
SenorBeef 13
furt 14
Hamlet 17
VarlosZ 18
CatInASuit 20
Fear The Turtle 19
ro0sh 23
DiggitCamara 26
Weirddave 37
Mince 76.06265765562576558552376175051


Most people nailed the Pittsburgh/Baltimore game pretty closely.

I'll add them up and calculate the playoff bracket points tomorrow.

[ToeJam]

Cardinals Beat Steelers:
24-21

[CatInASuit]

Cardinals over Steelers.

17-14

[Hamlet]

Steelers 34 Cardinals 21

[borschevsky]

Steelers 27 Cards 20

[furt]

I'd love to see the Cards win it ... which is why I'm picking Pittsburgh.

28-17

Actually that's my safe, official pick. My fear is we're in for a 1980s style 41-10 thrashing.

[Fear the Turtle]

Cards 20 Steelers 16

[ToeJam]

I'd love to see the Cards win it ... which is why I'm picking Pittsburgh.

Hey, that's exactly my logic!
I'd love to see the Steelers win it, that's why I'm picking the Cards.

[SenorBeef]

Steelers 27 Cards 20

[Chessic Sense]

Steelers 20 Cards 13

[rexnervous]

Cards 27
Steelers 23

[VarlosZ]

Steelers 28
Cardinals 21

[furt]

Senorbeef, do we have a winner?

[SenorBeef]

Ok, scores as of the end of the conference championship week (for players who have submitted predictions every week):


Ro0sh 101
VarlosZ 103
Furt 104
SenorBeef 123
Hamlet 133
Borchevsky 134
CatInASuit 145
Fear The Turtle 150
DiggitCamara 171

MHaye disqualified for non-submission for the conference championships week.

Superbowl scores:

borchevsky -2
SenorBeef -2
VarlosZ -2
furt 2
Hamlet 4
ro0sh 7
rexnervous 8
Chessic Sense 12
Fear The Turtle 14
CatInASuit 19

Total overall for score predictions:

VarlosZ 101
Furt 106
Ro0sh 108
SenorBeef 121
Borchevsky 132
Hamlet 137
CatInASuit 164
Fear The Turtle 164
DiggitCamara 171


DiggitCamara disqualified for no superbowl score prediction.

[SenorBeef]

And for part 1, the original bracket predictions (higher is better):

DiggitCamara 30
borschevsky 25
Weirddave 25
VarlosZ 20
vinniepaz 20
furt 15
Marley23 15
Hamlet 10
SenorBeef 10
CatInASuit 5
Fear The Turtle 5
MHaye 5
ro0sh 5



Overall score total (total prediction score minus bracket bonus score for remaining eligible players):



VarlosZ 101-20=81
Furt 106-15=91
Ro0sh 108-5=103
Borchevsky 132-25=107
SenorBeef 121-10=111
Hamlet 137-10=127
DiggitCamara 171-30=141
CatInASuit 164-5=159
Fear The Turtle 164-5=159

[ToeJam]

Damn, just like the Ravens, I fall to 3rd place from being a potential #1 seed.....

though this was fun, and I look forwards to it next year!

[CatInASuit]

Oh dear, joint last place.

Perhaps I should just stick to fantasy football (soccer to you guys) instead.

[borschevsky]

Man, the second round really killed me. 24 per game in that round, and 5 in the others :).

[VarlosZ]

Cool! I led almost the whole way, as it turned out. Also note that I won the confidence pick'em league, and just got edged in the spread pick'em league in the final week after leading all season. So, a pretty successful SDMB NFL contest year for me.

Thanks Beef, cool contest. Hopefully we can do it again next year.