Russia's Depopulation Bomb.

[mswas]

A specter is haunting Russia today. It is not the specter of Communism—that ghost has been chained in the attic of the past—but rather of depopulation—a relentless, unremitting, and perhaps unstoppable depopulation. The mass deaths associated with the Communist era may be history, but another sort of mass death may have only just begun, as Russians practice what amounts to an ethnic self-cleansing.

Since 1992, Russia’s human numbers have been progressively dwindling. This slow motion process now taking place in the country carries with it grim and potentially disastrous implications that threaten to recast the contours of life and society in Russia, to diminish the prospects for Russian economic development, and to affect Russia’s potential influence on the world stage in the years ahead.

Russia has faced this problem at other times during the last century. The first bout of depopulation lasted from 1917 to 1923, and was caused by the upheavals that transformed the Russian Empire into the Soviet Union. The next drop took place between 1933 and 1934, when the country’s population fell by nearly 2 million—or almost 2 percent—as a result of Stalin’s war against the “kulaks” in his forced collectivization of Soviet agriculture. And then, between 1941 and 1946, Russia’s population plummeted by more than 13 million through the cataclysms and catastrophes of World War II.

The current Russian depopulation—which began in 1992 and shows no signs of abating—was, like the previous episodes, also precipitated by events of momentous political significance: the final dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of Communist Party rule. But it differs in three important respects. First, it is by far the longest period of population decline in modern Russian history, having persisted for over twice as long as the decline that followed the Bolshevik Revolution, and well over three times as long as the terrifying depopulation Russia experienced during and immediately after World War II.

Second, unlike all the previous depopulations in Russia, this one has been taking place under what are, within the Russian context, basically orderly social and political circumstances. Terror and war are not the engines for the depopulation Russia is experiencing today, as they have been in the past.

And finally, whereas Russia’s previous depopulations resulted from wild and terrible social paroxysms, they were also clearly temporary in nature. The current crisis, on the other hand, is proceeding gradually and routinely, and thus it is impossible to predict when, or whether, it will finally come to an end.

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/2009%20-%20Spring/full-Eberstadt.html

I don't have the skills to really go too deeply into demographic problems but they fascinate me. What do others think of this? Especially since many here take it as gospel that the world is overpopulated and that depopulation essentially is a good thing.

[Mr. Moto]

The least densely populated part of Russia is Siberia. This part is also the area with the greatest concentration of resources, and it is next to a country that has ample population, a thirst for resources, and no great love for Russia or its people.

The implications here are pretty obvious - they have been explored in popular fiction. And while one shouldn't make too much of Tom Clancy novels, one should be concerned about this situation and it's implications for possible war or annexation without war.

[mswas]

So you think that Russia and China might go to war for Siberia?

[Altair33]

So you think that Russia and China might go to war for Siberia?

I think nuclear weapons, which Russia still has plenty of, have made that kind of war obsolete among major nuclear powers. Both sides know that, when one side gets truly desperate, they have plenty of nuclear warheads at their ready disposal. Plus, China's one-child policy seems pretty effective in curbing their population growth.

[mswas]

This is a perfect example of why I don't see overpopulation as a problem, that it's systemic. Siberia has all that land for the Chinese to move into, but they won't because of ethnic nationalism.

[Regallag_The_Axe]

So you think that Russia and China might go to war for Siberia?
I'm no international relations expert, but I don't think so, for the reasons Altair mentioned. However it would be interesting (in the worst sense of the word) to see two nuclear powers go at it.

[Mr. Moto]

If ground troops are engaged in Siberia you can't nuke them - you'll take your own army out as well, and China has plenty of reserves. You can't nuke Beijing either because you really don't want to see Moscow and St. Petersburg vanish as well as Siberia.

Nuclear weapons are just about useless in deterring this sort of attack.

[mswas]

If war occurs I would hope we have the good sense to stay out of it or side with China.

[Lochdale]

Why side with China? If they won, it would only make them that much more of a threat.

[mswas]

Not really. A state is more of a threat if it cannot meet its existential obligations to its population. If we resist their ability to aquire the resources they need they are far greater a threat. Nations are not threats because they are powerful, they are threats because they need something and are willing to use violence to get it.

[ExTank]

I think nuclear weapons, which Russia still has plenty of, have made that kind of war obsolete among major nuclear powers. Both sides know that, when one side gets truly desperate, they have plenty of nuclear warheads at their ready disposal. Plus, China's one-child policy seems pretty effective in curbing their population growth.

Ahem. It's been way too effective in curbing their female population growth.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=3499024

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5953508

[mswas]

Right, China has its own population bomb. People really underestimate how significant these population bombs are going to be at stagnating population growth and contributing to future economic inequality.

[Lochdale]

Not really. A state is more of a threat if it cannot meet its existential obligations to its population. If we resist their ability to aquire the resources they need they are far greater a threat. Nations are not threats because they are powerful, they are threats because they need something and are willing to use violence to get it.

I'm not sure I subscribe to that philosophy. The other way of looking at it would be that it would embolden China to look west and it would further destabilize Russia. A Russia who would now be wounded and much more likely to lash out.

[mswas]

Russia is going to be destabilized anyway. It's going through a demographic collapse and will have a top heavy population.

[Lochdale]

Russia is going to be destabilized anyway. It's going through a demographic collapse and will have a top heavy population.

So we exacerbate that? Doesn't seem like sound policy to me at all.

[mswas]

So we exacerbate that? Doesn't seem like sound policy to me at all.

What does 'we' have to do with it? I said if China goes for it I hope we side with China, IE the side that will most certainly win.

[Lochdale]

What does 'we' have to do with it? I said if China goes for it I hope we side with China, IE the side that will most certainly win.

And I think that may not be the best policy. Supporting Russia to contain China may make more sense. Indeed, supporting Russia now may well curb China's more expanisionist element rather than letting Russia get weaker and weaker.

[Bryan Ekers]

Heck, I'd be rooting for India to take advantage of China's attack on Russia. Meanwhile Pakistan sees an opportunity to attack India, bolstered by Iran, who's then attacked by Sunni elements from Iraq.

Winner: Israel.

[Markxxx]

Siberia became Russian because no one wanted it. They still don't. Japan didn't invade in WWII because what's the point. Sure it has resources but they are hard to get it. That is why they exist today, because it's too cold and swampy and full of nothing to be worth it. There is virtually no transportation in Siberia outside of the main cities and the trans-Siberian railway.

China's population is crowded in the eastern third of the nation. China has 2/3 of it's own nation underpopulated right now. They aren't going to declare war on Russia to get land that people can't live on anyway.

Look at America, Alaska is full or resources and it is growing VERY, VERY slowly. Why don't you move to Alaska now? Why indeed. It's expensive, it's too far and the higher wage doesn't justify the inconvenience.

There's a difference between putting in a small population that can exploit a resource then leave and mass immigration to an inhospitable area. Espeically when more viable areas are easier to get to

[mswas]

And I think that may not be the best policy. Supporting Russia to contain China may make more sense. Indeed, supporting Russia now may well curb China's more expanisionist element rather than letting Russia get weaker and weaker.

Except China needs those resources and Russia can't be bothered to fuck to save their own people.

[Brandus]

Are there any theories as to WHY Russians are simply refusing to breed?

[DSeid]

Russia's declining population is a function of both a high death rate and the low birth rate. Deaths are due to alcoholism, early heart disease, and accidents. The average male life span is only 59. They also have one of the highest suicide rates (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate)of the world, and six times as many males killing themselves than females. Depression rates (http://www.rcpsych.ac.uk/pressparliament/pressreleases2006/pr781.aspx) are high in Russia - 23% of males and 44% of females - and 60% feel that their income and material circumstance as "bad" or "very bad."

Depressed women (and depressed women often have depressed sex drives) with depressed and chronically alcoholic spouses (and chronically alcoholic males are often impotent) who all feel pretty hopeless about how their futures are shaping up. Not a surprise that there aint that much breeding going on or that women are not too excited about having lots of kids. And yeah, they are indeed also choosing (http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3634/is_199811/ai_n8820718/) to not have many kids - most want small families, use birth control, and have no qualms about having an abortion if they get pregnant anyway.In the two years preceding the survey about 80-90%, of mistimed conceptions and 95% of unwanted pregnancies were terminated. Overall, 58-63% of pregnancies during this time period ended in abortion.

Some 54-57% of survey participants had had at least one abortion, and 27-34% had had at least two. Nearly three-quarters of women aged 30-44 had ever had an abortion

Mind you this says little about the issue of regional overpopulation elsewhere in the world but we have other threads for that subject.

[Ludovic]

In Russia, you set up them the bomb!

[China Guy]

china is not underpopulated. population is concentrated in the eastern third of the country because the western two thirds is largely inhospital.

not sure how much population siberia could support? china would be happy to take it over.

i've alwaays thought japan grossly miscalculated after taking manchuria and rhen going for china and se asia. instead could have carved out siberia? manchuria, mongolia? korea? taiwan and had a sustainable empire

[dangermom]

It's my understanding that Russia has had a very high abortion rate for many years. I've read (in a book about Russia) that during the Soviet years Russians were highly suspicious of the Pill (which was hard to get anyway) and that doctors encouraged women not to use it, claiming that it was unnatural, would make you crazy, etc. Abortions were actually considered more 'natural' and better for your health--and they were routinely used as birth control. Doctors liked this because they could charge extra for such luxuries as anaesthetic.

Anyway, given the history, it's not at all surprising that Russia has quite a high abortion rate, even if it wasn't in a tragic death spiral anyway.



If China has lots of extra men, and Russia has extra women because of Russian mens' terrible health and longevity, should the two populations get together?

[kenner116]

If China has lots of extra men, and Russia has extra women because of Russian mens' terrible health and longevity, should the two populations get together?

Chinese husbands welcomed in Russia (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2006-08/07/content_659034.htm)
By Li Qian (Chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2006-08-07 17:21

Recently Russian women are looking to marry Chinese men because of their trustworthiness and romanticism, Chinanews.com reported Monday.

"Can you introduce some nice Chinese guys to me?" 25-year-old Russian Nadya asked her Chinese boss Zhao Hong, chairwoman of the local Chinese Association in Russia's fifth largest city Krasnoyarsk, who often receives such requests.

Among the more than one hundred Chinese families Zhao knows in the city, there are at least five Russian women married to men who work as businessmen, planters, or teachers at a national university.

Chinese migrant to Russia Ge Youjin and his Russian wife Tatiana had their third child recently. Tatiana said her husband is responsible. "He cherishes our love and doesn't drink or spend a lot," she said.

Ge too admires his wife. "She is hardworking and considerate like other Russian women, and she takes care of the family well."

Tatiana has a decent job, and cooks Northeast Chinese cuisine, which makes her husband feel at home. Tatiana now favors rice as a staple food, instead of Russian black bread.

Guo Jinchang, who has worked in a local farm for a dozen years, noticed some of his Chinese friends married Russian wives. "Chinese are comparatively conservative, which can add to their characteristic charms," he said.

Because of World War II, the population of men in Russia has been smaller than that of women, with 47 percent male and 53 percent female, according to figures from the Russian Federation Committee of Statistics.

My plan for a Russian/Chinese dating site could not have come at a more opportune time. This should make me a pretty penny.

[curlcoat]

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/2009%20-%20Spring/full-Eberstadt.html

I don't have the skills to really go too deeply into demographic problems but they fascinate me. What do others think of this? Especially since many here take it as gospel that the world is overpopulated and that depopulation essentially is a good thing.

Apparently the only reason depopulation in Russia is an issue is because it would affect Russia as a country? It sounds like it is not currently a place anyone wants to live, much less try to raise any children so why should anyone be encouraging them to do so? Doesn't it make more sense for them to try to get the country back on it's feet first?

[The Second Stone]

How about we encourage both of them to work it out peacefully. If either invades, lots of nukes will be used on the troops, if not the cities. Millions will die. Now I know that doesn't bother the George Bush School of Strategic Thought, but the worldwide fallout will also kill millions.

[First Amongst Daves]

My understanding was that Siberia was steadily filling with Chinese nationals. I'm not saying its by stealth or government policy, but more of a natural migration northward. No cite sorry - vaguely recall reading it somewhere, and would welcome clarification or repudiation.

[DSeid]

My understanding was that Siberia was steadily filling with Chinese nationals. I'm not saying its by stealth or government policy, but more of a natural migration northward. No cite sorry - vaguely recall reading it somewhere, and would welcome clarification or repudiation.
Well some additional information anyway.

First. (http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1062834.html)The most viable group of potential labor migrants is the Chinese, primarily because of overpopulation in some Chinese provinces and the countries' extensive common border. "Whether we like it or not, more and more Chinese are coming to Russia," Kiselev said. "According to a recent demographic study commissioned by 'Kommersant-Vlast' magazine, more and more Chinese migrants are coming to Russia and this year their number will reach 500,000 -- both legals and illegals."

If that trend continues, by the middle of the 21st century, Russia could be home to 10 million ethnic Chinese. That would make them the second-largest ethnic group in the country after Russians. Such an influx could spark xenophobia among the local population.

Most Chinese migrants in Russia tend to be either unskilled seasonal workers or small-time traders. Duma Deputy Otari Arshba (Unified Russia), an Interior Ministry migration expert, argued on 7 November that Russia needs to attract a more skilled Chinese workforce. He proposed the introduction of selective immigration for qualified workers and specialists modeled on the point system that was adopted in Canada. Despite some hostility toward foreigners, he said, Russian society should be able to absorb the newcomers.
Second. (http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2009/ea_china0195_03_06.asp)Some 50,000 Chinese work legally in Russia's Primorye region along the Pacific coast. But their actual number is believed to be twice that, according to Russian officials. The Chinese workers earn an average of about $100 a month, half the regular Russian salary but far more than what they could get back home. Other resident Chinese are traders operating the gray markets between the two countries.

Agreement on setting the 2,700-mile border in October 2004 was supposed to have resolved issues — including immigration — dating back over 300 years to the Russian empire’s push into relatively uninhabited areas. But the Chinese still lament “the lost one and a half million kilometers transferred to the Russian Empire” in the so-called “unequal treaties” of the 19th century at the high-water mark of European colonial penetration of China. Chinese authorities are supposed to be cooperating with Moscow in preserving the demographic imbalance between northeast China's growing 110 million and the Russian Far East’s dwindling 6.6 million.

But the overall decline in the Slav population of the Russian Federation and an out-migration to other parts of Russia from the RFE have taken a heavy toll. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the RFE Russian population has dropped by 14 percent in the last 15 years. The Russian government has discussed a range of re-population programs and economic development to avoid a projected drop to 4.5 million people by 2015. But like other Russian economic programs repeatedly announced and revamped, this has not been happening. ... the Chinese could become the dominant population in much of the Russian Far East later in this century.

Third. (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-04/02/content_841940.htm)A piece of bad news for nearly-a-million Chinese immigrant traders in Russia:

The Kremlin began a ban on immigrant venders in its market from April 1, forcing foreign traders to pack up their stalls and leaving dozens of kiosks empty.

The controversial decision announced by Russia looks to improve conditions for Russian traders, a report carried by Reuters reported Sunday.

Immigrant venders are only allowed to work as porters, cleaners, wholesalers. They are not permitted to directly sell goods to local customers.
Fourth. (http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?ots591=4888CAA0-B3DB-1461-98B9-E20E7B9C13D4&lng=en&id=53091)critics have questioned the strategic wisdom of the Kremlin's policy to develop stronger ties with Beijing, including arms sales and energy supplies to China. Some Russian politicians have complained about Chinese maps allegedly showing vast areas of the Russian Far East "in Chinese colors" and have warned that uncontrolled Chinese immigration into these sparsely populated regions could entail a form of soft annexation of Russian territory eventually. ... The Kremlin's program to revive the country's Far East involves building refineries, metal plants and nuclear power facilities. It also calls for the creation of new jobs and plans to reverse the ongoing exodus of people from Russia's Far East.

Other official measures seem to be aimed at dealing with concerns of Far Eastern residents about the growing number of Chinese migrants. From 1 April, the Russian government banned all foreigners from trading in street markets, thus leaving many Chinese in with little option but go back home.

Russia's Far East includes 13 Russian regions stretching over 40 percent of Russia's territory and possessing vast amounts of natural resources - virtually all of the country's diamonds, two-thirds of its gold deposits, as well as sizable hydrocarbon, timber and fishery resources.

Apart from economic development plans, the Kremlin has prioritized Far Eastern military security issues as well. The country's Far Eastern military district has been holding major annual war-games since 2002, involving land and air forces and Interior Ministry troops.

So let's put all this together, shall we?

Ethnic Russians are a vanishing breed and it appears do not really want to live in Russia's Far East. The ethnic Chinese population in Russia's Far East is growing fast, has strong ties back home, is a tight community, and as much as their labor may be needed is not being welcomed as members of Russian society - they are "others". Russian nationalism has often had a strong ethnic component to it. Ethnic Chinese in Russia are unlikely to develop a strong Russian national identity any time soon. China needs the natural resources that are contained in the Russian Far East and likely will for many years and Russia's economy right now is based on very little but the exploitation of natural resources. The EU hopes to eventually be less dependent on Russia for natural gas and we are already getting a taste of what Russia's economy will be dealing with in a possible future world with less demand for its resources.

An invasion by China seems less likely than eventual moves for "autonomy" if not outright independence from Russia with perhaps some covert support from China. How that plays out I would not hazard a guess.

[Alessan]

How that plays out I would not hazard a guess.

I would - the Russians would fight it tooth and nail, up to and including the use of nuclear weapons. You have no idea how deep the Russian fear of foreign invasion goes.

[E-Sabbath]

Remind anyone a little bit of Alsace-Lorraine?

[Bryan Ekers]

I would - the Russians would fight it tooth and nail, up to and including the use of nuclear weapons. You have no idea how deep the Russian fear of foreign invasion goes.

I dunno, once the WW2 generation and their children die off, and given a few generations of disaffected and cynical replacements... Russia as we know it could slip away and few would care. I figure breakaway efforts like Chechnya will only increase, and the brutality of Russia's responses will only demonstrate their desperation.

[mswas]

Apparently the only reason depopulation in Russia is an issue is because it would affect Russia as a country? It sounds like it is not currently a place anyone wants to live, much less try to raise any children so why should anyone be encouraging them to do so? Doesn't it make more sense for them to try to get the country back on it's feet first?

If they don't breed they can never get back on their feet, that's part of the point.

[mswas]

Remind anyone a little bit of Alsace-Lorraine?

Could you expand a bit on this? Seems like something I should be reminded of but I'm not.

[2ply]

Alsace-Lorraine is that little region in France that borders Germany and was part of Germany from Franco-Prussian War in 1871 until the end of World War I. Germany has a much larger population than France.

[mswas]

Alsace-Lorraine is that little region in France that borders Germany and was part of Germany from Franco-Prussian War in 1871 until the end of World War I. Germany has a much larger population than France.

Right. I understood that, but was there German migration into it that preceded the war?

[2ply]

The area was mostly German speaking.

[mswas]

Then I still fail to see the corrolation.

[FoieGrasIsEvil]

The area was mostly German speaking.

And is still heavily German-influenced. Look at the names of the well-known wineries: Trimbach, Zind-Humbrecht, Weinbach, etc.

[2ply]

Then I still fail to see the corrolation.

I don't either.

[Regallag_The_Axe]

I don't either.
As I understand it (and I may well be wrong), at that point in European history nationalism was just staring to take off, especially in what would become Germany (remember, before the Franco-Prussian War there was no unified German state). If there were a lot of German speakers in an area, they may have considered themselves German, despite the fact that their families had been living in French territory for generations.

[E-Sabbath]

area comprising the present French départements of Haut-Rhin, Bas-Rhin, and Moselle. Alsace-Lorraine was the name given to the 5,067 square miles (13,123 square km) of territory that was ceded by France to Germany in 1871 after the Franco-German War. This territory was retroceded to France in 1919 after World War I, was ceded again to Germany in 1940 during World War II, and was again retroceded to France in 1945.

I was thinking of a bit of how it was more or less the 'germanness' of the population made a convinent excuse for Germany to go and invade France a few times.

[Spoke]

Remind anyone a little bit of Alsace-Lorraine?


Sounds more like the birth of Texas (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Revolution). If the Chinese population in Siberia were to reach a critical mass and then declare independence from Russia, it would be Texas all over again.

...The Mexican-born settlers in Texas were soon vastly outnumbered by people born in the United States. To address this situation, President Anastasio Bustamante implemented several measures on April 6, 1830. Chief among these was a prohibition against further immigration to Texas from the United States, although American citizens would be allowed to settle in other parts of Mexico. Furthermore, the property tax law, intended to exempt immigrants from paying taxes for ten years, was rescinded, and tariffs were increased on goods shipped from the United States. Bustamante also ordered Texas settlers to comply with the federal prohibition against slavery or face military intervention. These measures did not have the intended effect. Settlers simply circumvented or ignored the laws. By 1834, it was estimated that over 30,000 Anglos (white people) lived in Texas, compared to only 7800 Mexican-born citizens...

[ralph124c]

Yes, Russia is in demographic decline. But this might actually be a good thing-higher wages for labor and better living standards. Is INDIA a great place to live (with their exploding populations?). As for China, yes, China needs and wants the vast resources of Siberia-but I don't see large numbers of people wanting o live there-it is inhospitable under the best of circumstances.
China is going to have huge problems all its own-look at wha will happen when unemployment rises (as it is doing now). I predice the collapse of the communist government in 5-10 years.
As for countries with aging populations (like Western Europe): what can't people keep working in their late 60's? Obviously, you cannot be a construction worker at age 68-but your can certainly do most jobs at that age.

[mswas]

Yes, Russia is in demographic decline. But this might actually be a good thing-higher wages for labor and better living standards. Is INDIA a great place to live (with their exploding populations?). As for China, yes, China needs and wants the vast resources of Siberia-but I don't see large numbers of people wanting o live there-it is inhospitable under the best of circumstances.

This seems to be based on the fallacy that money has a value in and of itself. It doesn't. Higher wages are irrelevant if your economy isn't actually, 'productive'.

China is going to have huge problems all its own-look at wha will happen when unemployment rises (as it is doing now). I predice the collapse of the communist government in 5-10 years.
As for countries with aging populations (like Western Europe): what can't people keep working in their late 60's? Obviously, you cannot be a construction worker at age 68-but your can certainly do most jobs at that age.

Yes you can, and that will be necessary. It will be interesting to see how Europe handles the tax on its socialist entitlements in the next twenty years.

[Henrichek]

From what I have read in various news articles, this downward trend has been slowed down in recent years and is predicted to turn around soon.

Here's a news article about it: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080123/97616414.html.

[Brandus]

Y I predice the collapse of the communist government in 5-10 years.

This seems a little rash, don't you think? Their grip seems tighter than ever these days. This thoughtful article from a man who actually lived in China sees quite the opposite. http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200904/chinese-innovation

might China prove vulnerable to Soviet-style discontent born of a slowing economy? My guess is No. China faces big problems, and its modern history has been marked by the unforeseen. Perhaps we will look back at the spectacle and choreography of the Beijing Olympics opening ceremonies as the last time the world thought there was no limit to what China could achieve. But I am betting the other way...

He ends up listing several good reasons that demonstrate the CCP knows what its doing - and the populace isn't exactly an eyelash away from violently overthrowing them.

[mswas]

From what I understand China is making efforts to turn it's vast manufacturing resources inward to create an internal economy that can better weather external storms.

[caveman]

So let's put all this together, shall we?

Ethnic Russians are a vanishing breed and it appears do not really want to live in Russia's Far East. The ethnic Chinese population in Russia's Far East is growing fast, has strong ties back home, is a tight community, and as much as their labor may be needed is not being welcomed as members of Russian society - they are "others". Russian nationalism has often had a strong ethnic component to it. Ethnic Chinese in Russia are unlikely to develop a strong Russian national identity any time soon. China needs the natural resources that are contained in the Russian Far East and likely will for many years and Russia's economy right now is based on very little but the exploitation of natural resources. The EU hopes to eventually be less dependent on Russia for natural gas and we are already getting a taste of what Russia's economy will be dealing with in a possible future world with less demand for its resources.

An invasion by China seems less likely than eventual moves for "autonomy" if not outright independence from Russia with perhaps some covert support from China. How that plays out I would not hazard a guess.

So, China is Russia's Mexico? At least for paranoid right-wing talk radio values of Mexico.

[mswas]

Heh except China is not in the process of imploding due to a civil war between the army and militant criminal cartels. ;)

I think Russia has many Mexicos in that regard.

[ralph124c]

Actually, Russia is re-arming-they are building new nuclear submarines, and upgrading their aircraft. I think they may well plan a return to superpower status.
What good this will do them is open to question-if I were Medvedev/Putin, I'd be spending the money on infrastructure and public health.

[Lust4Life]

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/2009%20-%20Spring/full-Eberstadt.html

I don't have the skills to really go too deeply into demographic problems but they fascinate me. What do others think of this? Especially since many here take it as gospel that the world is overpopulated and that depopulation essentially is a good thing.


Having more people alive at this point in time then we've had in all of history,six billion and rising quite rapidly, I think its fair to say that the world has an overpopulation problem.
And while the populations in some third world countries may not be heavy industrial users their deforestation and desertification are most definitely having their effect on the the world.

If the figures for Russias apparent decline in population are actually accurate and the decline becomes a permament event rather then a passing trend, while encouraging in the short term this will still be nowhere near enough to save the planet from the fast approaching crisis caused by too many people having too many children using up too many resources and causing too much environmental damage and too much pollution.

Is Siberia fertile enough to sustain a massivly increased population?

I'm not asking a rhetorical question here I honestly dont know.

[Wallenstein]

Having more people alive at this point in time then we've had in all of history,six billion and rising quite rapidly, I think its fair to say that the world has an overpopulation problem.
Soz, this is most likely an urban myth, although depends on what you count as "human history".

http://www.snopes.com/science/stats/dead.asp

[DSeid]

Is Siberia fertile enough to sustain a massivly increased population?
Here (http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2008/08/rs_20Aug2008/) is a report about Russia's current state and how they could significantly increase production just with more standard fertilizer use and land reforms. More so global climate change is expected to likely increase productivity in Russia's Far East significantly, especially if precipitation increases rather than decreases along with warming there (not much confidence from the models which way it will go).

So maybe yes.

:)

[Bytegeist]

... it would be Texas all over again.

No. Dear God, no.

Not another one.

[Lust4Life]

Here (http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2008/08/rs_20Aug2008/) is a report about Russia's current state and how they could significantly increase production just with more standard fertilizer use and land reforms. More so global climate change is expected to likely increase productivity in Russia's Far East significantly, especially if precipitation increases rather than decreases along with warming there (not much confidence from the models which way it will go).

So maybe yes.

:)

Did a quick Wiki which said that Siberias agriculture was limited by a harsh climate and poor soils but it was better in the west of the region.

[BrainGlutton]

Right, China has its own population bomb. People really underestimate how significant these population bombs are going to be at stagnating population growth and contributing to future economic inequality.

How does it relate to economic inequality?

[BrainGlutton]

Why side with China? If they won, it would only make them that much more of a threat.

To whom are they a threat now?

[BrainGlutton]

Russia is going to be destabilized anyway. It's going through a demographic collapse and will have a top heavy population.

By "top heavy," do you mean a preponderance of senior citizens? Lots of countries are dealing with a "grayby boom" but there's no sign it threatens to destabilize them.

[BrainGlutton]

Russia's declining population is a function of both a high death rate and the low birth rate. Deaths are due to alcoholism, early heart disease, and accidents. The average male life span is only 59. They also have one of the highest suicide rates (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate)of the world, and six times as many males killing themselves than females. Depression rates (http://www.rcpsych.ac.uk/pressparliament/pressreleases2006/pr781.aspx) are high in Russia - 23% of males and 44% of females - and 60% feel that their income and material circumstance as "bad" or "very bad."

But, the Russians have always been alcoholic and gloomy; they've been world-famous for both characteristics since the 16th Century at least. Why are the effects just catching up to them now?!

[mswas]

Brainglutton It remains to be seen how these 'grayby booms' affect their national economies as it's a relatively new phenomena, we'll see how long it takes. These problems can be fixed by automation taking on much of the work, but that doesn't help the carbon footprint argument relating to overpopulation. It creates a sad state where we don't populate any less, we just have fewer humans and more robots. In China's case, it will be seen in about 40 years when today's children are taking care of their parents and the society is EXTREMELY top-heavy. 4 grandparents taking care of a single child when that child is little is a boon to that child. One child taking care of 4 grandparents when he is old is considerably more difficult.

Lust4Life The rate of growth of populations worldwide have reduced drastically. It's not just in Russia, just Russia is moving into the demographic decline phase. As for the desertification of the world, well that's a function of insufficient technical expertise. So the proportion of population is related to its ability to sustain itself, and not to the ability of the environment to sustain it.

[Baldwin]

The Homo Sapiens population has more than doubled in my lifetime; that's 200,000 years to get from near-zero to 3 billion, then less than half a century from 3 billion to 6 billion. We're pulling fish out of the ocean faster than they're being replaced.

I'd love it if we could stop reproducing for a few decades, and get the population down to an even billion by the end of the century. Think I'll run on that platform.

[BrainGlutton]

Actually, Russia is re-arming-they are building new nuclear submarines, and upgrading their aircraft. I think they may well plan a return to superpower status.

Actually, I don't think they accept they ever lost superpower status.

[mswas]

The Homo Sapiens population has more than doubled in my lifetime; that's 200,000 years to get from near-zero to 3 billion, then less than half a century from 3 billion to 6 billion. We're pulling fish out of the ocean faster than they're being replaced.

I'd love it if we could stop reproducing for a few decades, and get the population down to an even billion by the end of the century. Think I'll run on that platform.

Right the problem here is that everyone wants a reactionary solution, one that would stone-age us. It's amazing to me that people's reactions to rising population are invariably human-hating solutions that threaten our very survival. The idea that rising population brings out hatred of our own species in people is one of the most disturbing elements of modern society. It's permeated our pop culture so deeply with things like The Matrix and Battlestar Galactica deciding that civilization itself is the problem.

I should go out and burn every copy of 'Ishmael'.

[DSeid]

But, the Russians have always been alcoholic and gloomy; they've been world-famous for both characteristics since the 16th Century at least. Why are the effects just catching up to them now?!It is one thing to have a stereotypic archetype and another to have actual frequency rates. Obviously we have no way of knowing how frequent depression, alcoholism, and suicide really were in the actual (rather than fictional literary) population through Czarist times or even through the era of the USSR (statistics were not released if kept or collected with any veracity) but suicide figures (http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/7257-3.cfm) are at least easy to follow. And rates are significantly higher than they were in 1990 or are in the rest of the world. Overall the 90's and beyond have been not good years (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9508159) for being a Russian.

Why now? I can only guess but my guess would be that it has to do with how Russians view the future. Maybe enough were just optimistic enough in past times to not kill themselves and to have families, and now the melancholic threshold has been passed.

[BrainGlutton]

Well, Putin has a solution . . . (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-471324/Sex-motherland-Russian-youths-encouraged-procreate-camp.html)

[mswas]

Well, Putin has a solution . . . (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-471324/Sex-motherland-Russian-youths-encouraged-procreate-camp.html)

It's funny how any display of national solidarity gets compared to Naziism.

[DSeid]

It's funny how any display of national solidarity gets compared to Naziism.
Did I click on a different article than you?

What I saw Godwinized were not displays of national solidarity but
book burnings,
celebrating past leaders who were in reality mass murderers,
revisionist history,
and xenophobia blending into outright racism

True enough that Godwinizing is a cheap rhetorical device, but the target was not mere "national solidarity" but darker elements that the writer claims have become fellow travelers in Russia today.

[mswas]

Did I click on a different article than you?

What I saw Godwinized were not displays of national solidarity but
book burnings,
celebrating past leaders who were in reality mass murderers,
revisionist history,
and xenophobia blending into outright racism

True enough that Godwinizing is a cheap rhetorical device, but the target was not mere "national solidarity" but darker elements that the writer claims have become fellow travelers in Russia today.

Fair enough.

[BrainGlutton]

It's funny how any display of national solidarity gets compared to Naziism.

Hitler never ordered the teenagers of the Hitler Jugend and the Bund Deutscher Madel to get together and breed for the Fatherland. Whatever you compare this to, it's a little creepy.

[DSeid]

Yeah.

In America the politicians screw you themselves!

[E-Sabbath]

Hitler never ordered the teenagers of the Hitler Jugend and the Bund Deutscher Madel to get together and breed for the Fatherland. Whatever you compare this to, it's a little creepy.

Didn't he? I remember something of the sort.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebensborn
The main misconception was that the programme involved coercive breeding.
Apparently not.

[mswas]

Hitler never ordered the teenagers of the Hitler Jugend and the Bund Deutscher Madel to get together and breed for the Fatherland. Whatever you compare this to, it's a little creepy.

So is a nation with record abortions and people who are too depressed to breed. It's pretty creepy all the way around. But then again, Russia's never NOT been creepy.

[Chief Pedant]

What do others think of this? Especially since many here take it as gospel that the world is overpopulated and that depopulation essentially is a good thing.

That depopulation is a political and social problem is not an argument against overpopulation being a problem in the first place...consider my example about exploding rat populations during a bamboo blossom in the overpopulation thread. When resources are plentiful and the rat population is expanding, for any given rat--and indeed, the cumulative population--depopulation is a problem.

The fact that depopulation is a problem for human societies results from two things: an unsustainable overpopulation in the first place, and a societal structure in which the aging population's welfare is built on a pyramidal distribution of supporting youngsters. The unsustainable consumption means that at some point the resources will begin, like bamboo blossoms, to diminish, and the the dependence upon the young results in a negative incentive to stabilize the population.

Now the argument has been made that we have been able to keep up--even exceed--production of food and energy for a growing population. I argue that the cost for that has been enormous in terms of its toll on the earth, that the strain is already at a critical level, and that there is little, if any, margin for external catastrophe. Those issues are being debated elsewhere.

I disagree with BrainGlutton that the "graby boom" is not destabilizing. The bills will come due and the Piper will be calling. The boomers have barely begun to borrow. It is going to get a lot worse and I see no chance it will ever get better.