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View Full Version : China's Demographic Problem:"China Will Get Old Before It Gets Rich"


ralph124c
08-24-2009, 08:19 AM
I have read that China has a relatively large proportion of people over age 60, and that this percentage is expected to grow in the next 20 years. Eventually, China will have too many pensioners, versus the labor force. Also, as the result of the "one child" policy, there are too many single men, and that these people wil be a drain on the economy, when they retire.
Is this true? Does China face a period of low economic growth, because of these demographic trends?
What would an economyof employed oldsters be like? Suppose we had employment into people's 70's? Could an economy function with 70-year old truck drivers, doctors, factory workers?

smiling bandit
08-24-2009, 10:35 AM
This is definitely a worry to central planners. They've staked their power and authority on making people rich, but they also have had to deal with rising unrest. Plus, angry young men with no women and few prospects, and that southern China is gaining more and more power and wealth. Perhaps most worrisome is that their economic growth may be built on a foundation of sand: the government is propping up their economy in a huge way, but despite the claims that their stimulus worked, it's also made their banking system very unstable. Thus far, they've been able to keep it afloat, but it could all go very bad, very quickly.

In short, they have a lot of problems to look forward to. However, the demographic one is nto the worst they can expect.

HorseloverFat
08-24-2009, 10:57 AM
Japan has an aging demographic and they're doing okay. I think a lot of the doomsday scenarios about China are overplayed.

http://longevity.stanford.edu/myworld/articles/populationaging