What does this year's El Nino portend for Winter in the western US?

[dolphinboy]

I understand we are experiencing an El Nino this year, and based on past observations that means it will be a particularly wet fall and winter in CA, OR and WA, but what about the more inland western states?

I think there is a factual answer here but this may end up being more IMHO that GQ.

I used to live in CA near the coast, but now live in Northwest Montana, and I have heard everything from "it's going to be a cold and snowy winter" to "expect it to be a dry and warmer than normal winter". Last year it didn't start snowing until December, but we got a lot of snow in January and February, and it was still pretty cold throughout much of March.

Are there any reliable predictions on expected weather in the western part of the US and not just on the coast? I'm not a weather person so I'm not sure who to believe on this stuff...

[Philster]

Remember, it might increase the likelihood of wet/stormy weather, but it doesn't guarantee it. If the winter isn't as wet/stormy as it could be with an El Nino, it doesn't mean any forecast that spoke to the increased likelihood was wrong.


BTW, El Nino is Spanish for...... The Nino. :p

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[dolphinboy]

I'm pretty sure that the term "El Nino" refers to "the child" and has to do with the fact that wetter than normal winters happen around Christmas time on the Pacific Coast...

[CC]

In general, El Ninos portend milder winters across the US, particularly in the western and midwestern states.

[Dallas Jones]

I'm pretty sure that the term "El Nino" refers to "the child" and has to do with the fact that wetter than normal winters happen around Christmas time on the Pacific Coast...

El Nino is 'the boy child'. When the conditions reverse the weather pattern is called 'La Nina' or the girl child.

No, I don't know Spanish well, I just get rained on a lot from these two.

[strqwert44]

FWIW, you may want to check out farmer's almanac.

Last winter it pointed to nuts falling from trees earlier in the season (among other natural indicators) as a sign of a very cold winter for the Midwest/Northeast, which was spot on.

IIRC, farmer's almanac says that this winter will be mild in the north (which also jives with the purported correlation between sunspot activity and weather).

[Bewildebeest]

BTW, El Nino is Spanish for...... The Nino. :p

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You misspelled it, as did everybody else, El Niño.