Could Leno have stepped down?

[BigT]

This is a reply to a comment in a thread (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=553897) that seems to be more about the new Tonight Show, rather than the controversy. I'd have put it in the omnibus thread, but it's dadblasted long. (I invite the mods to merge if they wish, though.)

I had no dislike for Leno before this. I mean, I never watched him because I've always been a Letterman fan, but Leno always did a great monologue. But this whole Conan thing has made me lose all respect for him. Even if you ignore the incredibly disrespectful snub towards Conan, the fact is that Leno took a chance to move up in his career, to primetime, and he failed.

Again even without the whole forcing Conan out, its still so pathetic to see him even want to go back to his old job, to move backwards in his career. He should have stayed with Tonight and experimented with a primetime show first. Instead he gambled everything, and lost. And now he expects (and is getting) a 'do-over'! Thought he had more integrity than that (Letterman would never do something like this!)

And I watched the last week of Conan. He was fine. He was as good as Leno. In fact, he was much better at sketch comedy than Leno ever was. Remember to took almost four years for Leno to finally beat Letterman's CBS show. Conan got barely six months! And you can say its the network that forced Conan out, but without having Leno agreeing to come back they would NOT have done this. They would have given him more time. So Conan being fired is essentially completely Leno's doing.

Jerk!

From what I can tell, Leno didn't want the Prime Time show in the first place. NBC was unwilling to buy him out of his contract in order to give Conan the show, and Leno was unwilling to force the issue like Conan did. The idea was that, with the prime time show, even if it didn't work out, was so cheap that NBC would still make some money off of it.And Leno could ride out the rest of his contract.

The problem was the affiliates. Both shows had much lower ratings than their predecessors in that time slot. This meant that advertisers weren't willing to spend as much to buy commercials. With local commercials, this probably wasn't a big factor, but affiliates also get a share of the national commercials. NBC's share was large enough to keep it afloat (as they planned), but the affiliates did not think it was enough for them. They had been pushing and pushing to get the two shows taken off the air, and NBC finally caved.

So now we have two shows that can no longer exist. You're probably right that NBC might have been able to just axe Jay, and keep Conan, and the affiliates would have given them more time. The problem is that axing Jay would still cost $150 million, while axing Conan would only cost $40 million. Of course Jay could have voluntarily stepped down, negotiating for a lower settlement than Conan's contract. But, if he didn't, there's no way NBC would have kept Conan. It doesn't matter at which point he stepped down.

[BigT]

NETA: Looks like I didn't make it back in time to link the omnibus thread (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=546884&highlight=conan+leno) I was referring to.

[njtt]

That was pretty much my understanding of the situation too. My impression is that Leno never wanted to move from the Tonight Show at all. All considerations of talent aside, I do not see him as the asshole here. I am not saying that Conan is either. The problem was caused by the execs who imagined Conan's shtick would work for the 11.30 audience, and that Jay's would work for the 10.00 one. Wrong on both counts (as I suspect Jay knew all along, but Conan clearly didn't).

Frankly, I always thought Letterman was much better suited to the later spot too. He was a lot funnier and edgier in his NBC days.

[Fubaya]

From what I can tell, Leno didn't want the Prime Time show in the first place. NBC was unwilling to buy him out of his contract in order to give Conan the show, and Leno was unwilling to force the issue like Conan did. The idea was that, with the prime time show, even if it didn't work out, was so cheap that NBC would still make some money off of it.And Leno could ride out the rest of his contract.

What was Leno's contract? Remember he took a few minutes on his show 5-6 years ago to tell everyone that he and the NBC brass decided he would go do other things in 5 years and turn the Tonight Show over to Conan. I've only heard audio of it but I'm pretty sure it's on Youtube. I've never been interested in this whole thing, but I thought he was just doing what was decided years ago, then did a 180 when it didn't work.

[bafaa]

I may be wrong on some points but what I remember hearing or reading was that Jay did not want to agree to leaving 5 years ago but was forced to accept the agreement by NBC. Apparently NBC had promised The Tonight Show to Conan so he wouldn't leave NBC (or something along those lines). The point being that Jay says 5 years ago he was pressured to agree to leave.

When the time came to leave he had the best ratings of any late night show. Still NBC wanted to give Conan a shot so they came up with the idea to move Jay to 10 PM. He supposedly didn't think it was a very good idea but agreed to the move which allowed Conan to do the Tonight Show. Remember that Jay was regularly at the top of the ratings at this time. When Conan took over the ratings understandably suffered. That's pretty much SOP for changes in late night and you need to allow time for the audience to grow again.

So months go by and both shows are struggling in the ratings. Jay says that NBC came to him and said that they wanted to move Conan's start back 30 minutes and would Jay like to do a 30 minute version of his show as a lead in to Conan. Jay says he was surprised by the offer and when asked if Conan had really agreed to that was told basically told yes. So Jay said OK.

NBC then offered that to Conan (moving the start back 30 minutes) and Conan basically said that was unacceptable and would rather leave than screw with the starting time slot of "The Tonight Show". I guess NBC jumped on that thinking they could let him go and just bring Jay back, hopefully with his previous ratings. So they went to Jay and told him since Conan is leaving would he like to just have the show back. Jay said yes.

So that's kind of the basics as far as I know. NBC told Jay that Conan was out anyway. If Jay did not come back they would just find another host so he decided he would go back to doing the show he loves and had been very successful with. Some people will argue that this screwed Conan but if we believe Jay's side of the story, that Conan was on the way out anyway, than I think Jay did the right thing.

[Ephemera]

I don't watch late night TV, and my favorite talking heads are Stewart and Colbert, but my understanding is that, even then, Jay didn't want to step down, but did it to appease NBC, who wanted to keep Conan.

Personally, I think this whole thing's overblown. Conan bombed and Jay is just taking back what he never wanted to give up. The NBC execs are the people to mock here, not Leno.

[II Gyan II]

A gist of the happenings as I understand it:

In 2004, Leno's at the Tonight Show, Conan's at Late night; contracts for both are soon to expire, and hence set for negotiation. Conan hints to NBC that others are interested in him; NBC thinks Leno's getting old and won't stay on top for very long. So Leno's asked to retire from Tonight Show after 5 years, and Conan's crowned the heir apparent. Come 2008, NBC is not doing too well, in primetime, they're last among the Big 4. The Tonight Show is one of their big earners and they're set to lose Jay when he's done. So they decide to retire Jay a few months early and pass on to Conan.Since they'll have 7 months left on their contract with Jay, he can't work elsewhere. He asks to be released from the contract. NBC says No, and floats him the 10PM talk show offer. He agrees. NBC has low expectations of this new show. It won't draw in as many viewers, but it's cheaper to make, hence still be profitable. The Jay Leno show debuts in September, 3 months after Conan's Tonight, settles down to viewership levels on the cusp of profitability. But those levels are bad news for the affiliates (not for parent NBC). The affiliates put pressure on NBC. NBC can't afford to let go of Jay because of a huge payout clause, so they try to improvise with the 11:30 Leno half hour and 12 AM Tonight Show and come up FAIL. Now, it's cheaper to let go of Conan. So that's what they do.

I think Conan overreached in 2004; NBC came up with a bad idea in the 10PM talk show; Leno is a jerk for agreeing to the 11:35 half-hour but not for the 10PM FAIL. Personally, Conan's better suited for the 12:30 style. But it seems he dreamt of hosting the Tonight Show. And that wish came true.

[anson2995]

I like Conan. I find Jay unwatchable. What astonishes me is that Conan positioned himself as the victim and Jay as the perpetrator, that some great wrong was being done to him. The fact is that Conan completely tanked in the ratings, so badly that the NBC execs didn't feel that could afford the kind of patience they had shown when Conan tanked in the first year of Late Night.

Conan rallied support by painting Jay as a bully, but the reality is that if even half of the people who joined the "I'm with Coco" rally had actually watched the show, he might have earned a chance to stay.

What's ironic, of course, is that it was Conan who bumped Jay out, not the other way around.

As to the OP's factual question, he was under contract to NBC. He could have left, but would have been barred from working anywhere else until the contract expired. He has said in multiple interviews, including with Oprah (http://www.deadline.com/2010/01/complete-transcript-of-jay-leno-on-oprah/), that he asked to be let go both when Conan took over the Tonight Show and when the Jay Leno Show was cancelled, and both times NBC refused.

[Hail Ants]

Wow! Things are always more complicated than they seem!

Well I am glad to know that Jay isn't the asshole this current situation made him appear to be. I have to mention the incredible irony that Jay got the short end because NBC made a deal with Conan, since Dave got it 20 years ago when Leno (actually, his evil, insane manager) made the deal guaranteeing him Tonight!

I'm still a little confused. Did Jay agree to retire in 5 years? If he had refused would NBC have not renewed Jay's contract just to keep Conan from leaving? Didn't Tonight make considerably more money than Late Night and therefore give Leno much more clout than Conan?

[DrDeth]

That was pretty much my understanding of the situation too. My impression is that Leno never wanted to move from the Tonight Show at all. All considerations of talent aside, I do not see him as the asshole here. I am not saying that Conan is either. The problem was caused by the execs who imagined Conan's shtick would work for the 11.30 audience, and that Jay's would work for the 10.00 one. Wrong on both counts (as I suspect Jay knew all along, but Conan clearly didn't)..

Leno's shtick worked about as well as expected. The problem is, the local affiliates weren't willing to accept a cheaper but lower rating show.

But I agree, Conan was the wrong choice for the 11:30 Tonite Show fans.

[Bijou Drains]

NBC also offered Leno the 10 slot to keep him from going to ABC at 11:35. They knew he wanted to keep doing a show and ABC was most likely were he was going to end up. They have Nightline but they would have preferred Leno.

[2ply]

I'm still a little confused. Did Jay agree to retire in 5 years? If he had refused would NBC have not renewed Jay's contract just to keep Conan from leaving? Didn't Tonight make considerably more money than Late Night and therefore give Leno much more clout than Conan?

Yes. Back in 2004, NBC executives were willing to let Leno, #1 late night host, go to keep Conan. 2009 comes around and NBC executives realizes it wants to keep both hosts on the network somehow, which led to the recent mess. It's confusing because NBC has very poor leadership who made a mistake six years ago and kept building on that with more mistakes.

[Colibri]

Moving to Cafe Society from GQ.

Colibri
General Questions Moderator

[Piker]

I like Conan. I find Jay unwatchable. What astonishes me is that Conan positioned himself as the victim and Jay as the perpetrator, that some great wrong was being done to him. The fact is that Conan completely tanked in the ratings, so badly that the NBC execs didn't feel that could afford the kind of patience they had shown when Conan tanked in the first year of Late Night.


The idea is that when Jay completely tanked in the ratings for more than three years, Carson wasn't waiting around in the lobby ready to take his gig back. And, remember, Johnny was forced out too. There's a little thing called class, something that Mr. Leno is surely lacking.

[Leaper]

And Conan's supporters argue that much of the reason Conan tanked is because of Jay and his failure/leeching of audience at 10. Plus, in addition to what Piker said above, NBC was much more patient with Conan himself when he first took over for Letterman.

[Oscalo]

You have to remember also that Jay had his own crew to worry about and given the choice, I can't imagine he would have wanted them to be out of a job in this economy.

[Sam Stone]

The root problem is that NBC didn't want to lose Conan five years ago. At the time, Conan was hot, and he had offers to move to 11;35 on at least one other network.

So here's what NBC was worried about - Conan leaves, and they've got no one for 12:30. In the meantime, the added competition at 11:30 eats into their ratings. Also, the 12:30 show had always been seen as kind of the 'farm league' for the 11:30 show. Jay's not a spring chicken, and at some point would have to leave because he was losing his ratings, or his health, or his relevancy. If Conan left, they'd have no one to replace Jay when that day came, and they risked destroying their entire late-night lineup.

So the bright boys said, "Wait a minute! What if we offer Conan Jay's spot in five years? If he knows it's a guarantee, he'll stick around. In five years, Jay will be 60, which is pretty old for a late-night host. We'll retire him, move Conan into the Tonight show, and complete an orderly transition that retains our late-night strength".

At the time, that seemed fairly reasonable. Leno didn't like it, but Leno's a workaholic. So NBC offered to find him something else, and probably promised it would be a step up - primetime, total creative control, whatever. So Jay reluctantly agreed. Conan agreed, because the Tonight Show is every late-night comedian's dream gig.

Five years later, and Jay's still #1. At that point, the suits were probably wishing they could undo the whole deal, but contracts had been signed. So, they did the switch, and moved Jay to primetime and Conan to 11:30. And then both shows suffered, the affialiates squawked, and NBC panicked.

Part of the problem was that they foolishly promised Leno a 2 year contract that would keep his show on the air regardless of what its ratings were. So they couldn't get rid of him, OR cancel his show. So they had to offer him a deal that he was willing to accept. So they offered him essentially the Tonight Show back, under a different name. Conan rightly felt that this would destroy the real Tonight Show, which was always all about being the show you watched to put you to sleep after the news. Put another show there, and the Tonight Show loses its special status. So Conan refuses to move the show, and the rest is history.

Who's right? You could argue that Conan should never have agreed to a contract that would force Leno out of a show he didn't want to leave. On the other hand, you could argue that a Tonight Show with a 70 year old Jay Leno as host isn't the greatest thing for the show either.

You could argue that the original deal five years ago was stupid, but that's hindsight.

The people who take Jay's side basically say that he's a team player, and didn't push for any of this to happen - he just went where the opportunities are under bad circumstances. Who could blame him?

The people who take Conan's side say that Conan took a principled stance because he didn't want to see the Tonight Show ruined, and Jay was willing to damage the institution for his own gain. They felt that Jay should have just told NBC, "Look, that's Conan's show now. Find me something else, or buy me out of my contract. But I'm not going to kick him out of the gig or push the Tonight Show back and help destroy an institution that I've cared about since I was a kid."

Also, the people who take Conan's side said that the idea to move the show back half an hour was basically a sleazy way to get out of their contract. The Tonight Show isn't about the name - it's about the 11:35 slot. Take that away, and you take away the Tonight Show, which they were contractually obligated to allow Conan to host.

What's indisputably true, though, is that Zucker handled the situation very poorly at the end - trying to strong-arm both of them, taking the fight to the press, announcing resolutions before they had been agreed to, etc. He took a difficult situation and made it much worse than it needed to be. They should have announced nothing at all until all sides had come to some kind of an agreement.

[BigT]

Moving to Cafe Society from GQ.

Colibri
General Questions Moderator

Sorry. I was wondering why people were saying it was factual question. Guess I used the wrong tab.

The people who take Conan's side say ... that Jay should have just told NBC, "Look, that's Conan's show now. Find me something else, or buy me out of my contract. But I'm not going to kick him out of the gig or push the Tonight Show back and help destroy an institution that I've cared about since I was a kid."

This is the part I'm questioning. From what I hear, the cost to buy Jay out of his contract was set at $150 million, compared to Conan's $40 million. Of course NBC is going to take the cheaper option. They were within their rights to just cancel the Tonight show, kick out Conan, and replace it with Jay's show. If the Tonight Show just means the 11:35 slot, then Jay essentially gets the Tonight Show anyway.

There's another thing I'm confused about: what leverage did the affiliates have? Very nearly every one of them is in a market where all the other stations are taken. So, if they refuse to pick up NBC's shows, their only alternative is to pick up shows that are already airing in that market. I cannot imagine their customers being happy with that, nor can I imagine they could get any real ratings.

[Bijou Drains]

Carson retired at 67 so Leno sticking around until that age is not that unusual.

[anson2995]

The idea is that when Jay completely tanked in the ratings for more than three years, Carson wasn't waiting around in the lobby ready to take his gig back. And, remember, Johnny was forced out too. There's a little thing called class, something that Mr. Leno is surely lacking.

I guess we disagree. Leno got fired when he was #1 and stepped down pretty quietly. Conan got fired when he was #3 and made a stink about it. Sure, he can complain that the network should have given him more time to bring the ratings up, but who's to say that would ever have happened. As I said earlier, I love Conan and think Leno is painfully unwatchable. However, I never thought Conan's shtick would work for the traditional Tonight Show audience.

A year from now, with Leno back on the Tonight Show and Conan filling the 11:30 spot at Fox or ABC, I suspect the ratings will be pretty lopsided and NBC's business decision will be justified.

But at the end of the day, the way they handle the transition was horrible, starting five years ago. Their the real villain here, not is NBC. They screwed both Leno and Conan, just as they screwed both Carson and Letterman 20 years ago.

[Bijou Drains]

It's a pretty risky idea to tell someone he will have to give up a #1 show in 5 years. A lot can change in 5 years but in this case Leno was still #1 in 2009. NBC wanted to eat their cake and have it too by keeping both Leno and O'Brien. In Carson's case there was only 1 year notice that he was going to retire.

[The Second Stone]

Every comedian wants the Tonight Show job. I don't blame any of them for wanting it. NBC gave it to Leno when Carson retired. After a start that saw Letterman usually beating Leno in ratings, Leno pulled ahead and kept ahead of Letterman in the ratings for something like 14 years. From a stockholders standpoint, this was absolutely the right decision. That Letterman's followers were bitter and wanted him "crowned" with a job he would not earn seems a bit odd to me, but to each their own.

About five years ago NBC decided that they wanted to secure the future with their up and coming star Conan, so they decided to more or less retire their ratings winner to develop their new guy. In short, Conan managed to convince NBC to give him the coveted job. They did, and the ratings tanked. The affiliates rebelled, as the stockholders should have. Conan got fired because he was unwilling to take his old time slot back. Leno was willing to take his old job back.

So it looks to me that Conan wanted someone else's job, got them fired, couldn't do the job and gets the press to blame the old guy for the whole fiasco.

The asshole here is Conan.

[Ellis Dee]

I don't like either of them, but it's patently absurd to try and paint Leno as a team player and Conan as a cutthroat opportunist. Conan would have been perfectly fine to finish out his contract and then go to another network to try his hand at the 11:35 timeslot. NBC came to him and offered him the Tonight Show in 5 years to prevent that.

That's exactly the kind of thing people love to give Leno a pass for. Hey, he was just being a team player. Hey, he was made an offer he couldn't refuse so how can you blame him? Yeah, great for Jay, that makes him saint. But if Conan does the exact same thing he's an asshole?

Get real. Conan at least passed the King Solomon test, while Jay failed it miserably. And let's not forget that Jay's colossal failure at 10pm tanked any chance Conan never had at 11:35pm, and even with that Conan didn't do much worse than Jay's first year helming the Tonight Show.

Jay is clearly the douchiest of douches.

[Bijou Drains]

Leno said he thought 10 PM was not going to work but NBC told him to give it a try. As I said above the main reason they gave him 10 was to keep him away from ABC or another network.

One thing I've noticed about Leno vs. Letterman vs. O'Brien fan bases is that Leno fans are more casual where the other 2 fans are more die hard.

Letterman fans have this odd thought that somehow he was "owed" the Tonight show because he already worked for NBC. (And because Carson like him.) Show business is like many other businesses where the best guy gets the job and nobody is owed anything.

[Piker]

I guess we disagree. Leno got fired when he was #1 and stepped down pretty quietly. Conan got fired when he was #3 and made a stink about it. Sure, he can complain that the network should have given him more time to bring the ratings up, but who's to say that would ever have happened. As I said earlier, I love Conan and think Leno is painfully unwatchable. However, I never thought Conan's shtick would work for the traditional Tonight Show audience.

A year from now, with Leno back on the Tonight Show and Conan filling the 11:30 spot at Fox or ABC, I suspect the ratings will be pretty lopsided and NBC's business decision will be justified.

But at the end of the day, the way they handle the transition was horrible, starting five years ago. Their the real villain here, not is NBC. They screwed both Leno and Conan, just as they screwed both Carson and Letterman 20 years ago.

I don't understand this business about NBC being surprised that Leno was still #1 in 2009. I've been a Letterman fan since I was a kid, but Leno consistently won the time slot for fifteen years, and there wasn't any indication that that was going to change. Leno had bigger guests and offered, um, broader comedy than Letterman. Everyone's acting like NBC was shocked to find that Leno was still #1; that's bullshit.

Plus, I don't know how you can turn on the television at 11:35 tonight and say that Leno was screwed by all this. I return to this: could you imagine Johnny Carson giving us the "aw shucks" routine after taking the Tonight Show back in 1993? There is a thing called class, and Leno doesn't have it.

[Ellis Dee]

Letterman fans have this odd thought that somehow he was "owed" the Tonight show because he already worked for NBC. (And because Carson like him.) Show business is like many other businesses where the best guy gets the job and nobody is owed anything.I don't think show business is a meritocracy; I think success in Hollywood is all about who you know and who you blow. But even if it is a meritcracy, Leno didn't originally get the Tonight Show based on merit. He got it based on cutthroat negotiating tactics by his manager.

[Bijou Drains]

I'm not sure how it's a lack of class to accept a great, very high paying job. Especially when it's the exact same job you did a great job at for 14 years. It's not like Leno taking the job back means O'Brien is homeless. He gets $32 mil to do nothing and he will get another job this fall.

[kunilou]

There's another thing I'm confused about: what leverage did the affiliates have? Very nearly every one of them is in a market where all the other stations are taken. So, if they refuse to pick up NBC's shows, their only alternative is to pick up shows that are already airing in that market. I cannot imagine their customers being happy with that, nor can I imagine they could get any real ratings.

The affiliates have plenty of leverage. For one thing, many of them threatened to pull Leno's show completely, and air Oprah, Ellen, old sitcoms, infomercials -- it didn't really matter because even with lousy ratings, they'd be getting more revenue from the time slot than with Leno.

Or, let's say NBC had managed to put Leno on at 11:35 and move "The Tonight Show" back to 12:05. NBC would've had to negotiate new clearances with the affiliates for Leno, Conan, Fallon and Daley (new timeslot=new clearance). In that case, the affiliates would have been within their rights to not run Leno at 11:35, put their own 30 minutes of programming in there, and scoop up that revenue.

Bottom line, NBC tried to keep both Leno and Conan and mishandled it badly. They resolved the issue by forcing Conan out and moving Leno back. It probably made sense from a short-term ratings standpoint, but I think it's a long-term mistake.

[Bijou Drains]

I remember some people here had this nutty idea that Hollywood stars would be mad at mean old Jay and boycott the Tonight show starting today. Looking at the lineup for this week we can see that's not true.

Monday, March 1 - Guests include Jamie Foxx, Olympic Gold Medal Skier Lindsey Vonn and a musical performance by Brad Paisley

Tuesday, March 2 - Guests include Sarah Palin, Olympic Gold Medal Snowboarder Shaun White and a musical performance by Adam Lambert

Wednesday, March 3 - “Jaywalk All-Stars” with the Cast of “Jersey Shore,” Chelsea Handler, the most decorated American Winter Olympian of all time Speed Skater Apolo Anton Ohno and a musical performance by Avril Lavigne

**Thursday, March 4 - Guests include Matthew McConaughey and Brett Favre and a musical performance by Lifehouse

**Friday, March 5 - Guests include Morgan Freeman, Jason Reitman and a musical performance by Robin Thicke

[astorian]

The web site "Stuff White People Like" had the best take on this (I'm paraphrasing):

Conan O'Brien's fans are extremely devoted, and will support him loudly and enthusiastically in EVERY way possible, except the one way that would actually do him some good- by watching his show.

That sounds about right to me. I'm not a big late night talk show fan, period. I rarely watch Leno, Letterman, Ferguson or anyone else in those slot any more. But in my limited experience, the people most outraged by Conan O'Brien's cancellation weren't watching his show regularly anyway. Oh, they were all MEANING to watch his show more, but somehow they never got around to tuning in.

Let's put it this way: the average Leno fan is a 45 year old housewife in Dubuque. The average Conan fan is a single, highly educated, 30 year old male in New York. The average Conan fan is a MUCH more desirable viewer from the advertiser's point of view.

The snag is, that housewife in Dubuque really WATCHES Jay Leno 3 or 4 nights a week. The Conan fan, if the truth be known, hasn’t actually watched Conan’s show in years. Ask him, to name the best bit Conan has done on ‘Tonight’ in the past 3 months, and he’ll either draw a blank, or name the Masturbating Bear or “In the Year 2000.” Something he remembers liking on Conan’s show 5 or 10 years ago, back when he was still following it.

[Bijou Drains]

Conan's fans are too busy doing all kinds of hip stuff to watch TV!! Watching TV is for boring people.

[anson2995]

I return to this: could you imagine Johnny Carson giving us the "aw shucks" routine after taking the Tonight Show back in 1993? There is a thing called class, and Leno doesn't have it.
Apples and oranges. I guess you are saying that Leno is an ass for returning to the Tonight Show? If he refused, you think Conan would still have the gig?

What exactly would you like to have seen happen?

[Piker]

Apples and oranges. I guess you are saying that Leno is an ass for returning to the Tonight Show? If he refused, you think Conan would still have the gig?

What exactly would you like to have seen happen?

What's so hard about this? I would have liked for Leno to not jump at the first opportunity to fuck Conan over.

I'm not sure how it's a lack of class to accept a great, very high paying job.

Shockingly, class does not precisely correlate with sheer economic self-interest.

[kenobi 65]

The affiliates have plenty of leverage. For one thing, many of them threatened to pull Leno's show completely, and air Oprah, Ellen, old sitcoms, infomercials -- it didn't really matter because even with lousy ratings, they'd be getting more revenue from the time slot than with Leno.

Or, let's say NBC had managed to put Leno on at 11:35 and move "The Tonight Show" back to 12:05. NBC would've had to negotiate new clearances with the affiliates for Leno, Conan, Fallon and Daley (new timeslot=new clearance). In that case, the affiliates would have been within their rights to not run Leno at 11:35, put their own 30 minutes of programming in there, and scoop up that revenue.

Just to clarify this: when a network affiliate runs a network program, most of the commercials are run by the network, and the network receives all of the revenue from those ads. The local affiliate only has control over the "station break", usually at the bottom of the hour (which is when you'll see ads for local businesses, as well as promos for the affiliate's news programs).

Compare this to the affiliate running a syndicated program during that same time...depending on the exact nature of the syndicated program, the affiliate will have control over most, or all, of the commercial space in that program, from which it then receives all of the revenue.

[kenobi 65]

**Thursday, March 4 - Guests include Matthew McConaughey and Brett Favre and a musical performance by Lifehouse

I find this particularly ironic. Will they compare notes about their respective un-retirements, and attempts to force other guys out of their jobs?

(Not a Jay Leno fan here, and I never have been...)

[Bijou Drains]

In 2008 when it was very obvious Leno wanted to stay at 11:35 did Conan turn down the Tonight show so Leno could stay at the job he held at #1 for 14 years?

[YogSosoth]

I don't think show business is a meritocracy; I think success in Hollywood is all about who you know and who you blow. But even if it is a meritcracy, Leno didn't originally get the Tonight Show based on merit. He got it based on cutthroat negotiating tactics by his manager.

I hear this a lot but can someone explain what exactly Leno's manager did? From the recent NBC late night issues, all I know is that Leno once hid in a closet to eavesdrop on what NBC execs were saying about him. I don't see how that helps him get a contract.

What exactly did Leno's manager do? What didn't Letterman's manager do?

[YogSosoth]

I remember some people here had this nutty idea that Hollywood stars would be mad at mean old Jay and boycott the Tonight show starting today. Looking at the lineup for this week we can see that's not true.

Tuesday, March 2 - Guests include Sarah Palin, Olympic Gold Medal Snowboarder Shaun White and a musical performance by Adam Lambert


I hope Lambert comes out and asks Palin why she thinks she can't get married :D

[The Second Stone]

What's so hard about this? I would have liked for Leno to not jump at the first opportunity to fuck Conan over.


If Conan had tried to take my job he could expect a lot worse than an imaginary metaphorical fucking over. Fact is, he not only tried to steal another man's job, he was successful. When he failed to put fannies in the seats they fired his ass and the other guy wasn't bitter about it and took the gig back.

There is no way that Conan was ever "entitled" to another man's job, it was beyond extra-ordinarily rude and well into super assholish to demand that Leno "retire" so he could get it. This was a man's job. Conan turned super asshole when he demanded that Leno be taken out of his job so Conan could have it. He was fired for the dip in ratings. Leno has not "fucked Conan over", although Leno has cause to do a hell of a lot more to Conan than fuck him over. You come after my job, you should expect a lot worse than an imaginary "fucking over."

Conan was a super asshole the moment he demanded another man's job. And his fans are super assholes for not realizing this. Particularly when Conan moves to another network at 11:30 and gets fired again for losing to both Leno and Letterman.

[BigT]

The affiliates have plenty of leverage. For one thing, many of them threatened to pull Leno's show completely, and air Oprah, Ellen, old sitcoms, infomercials -- it didn't really matter because even with lousy ratings, they'd be getting more revenue from the time slot than with Leno.

:smack: I feel stupid. For some reason I was thinking of all the shows as a package deal. But of course they can choose to not air one show and stick a syndicated show in that slot.

[Leaper]

I hope Lambert comes out and asks Palin why she thinks she can't get married :D

(Emphasis mine.)

Now now, I know Adam Lambert has pretty makeup and sparkly clothes, but this really goes too far - I believe he considers himself male.

:D

[DrDeth]

What's so hard about this? I would have liked for Leno to not jump at the first opportunity to fuck Conan over.

Did not Conan do the same for Leno, and get Leno off so Conan could get on?

[Ellis Dee]

If Conan had tried to take my job he could expect a lot worse than an imaginary metaphorical fucking over. Fact is, he not only tried to steal another man's job, he was successful. When he failed to put fannies in the seats they fired his ass and the other guy wasn't bitter about it and took the gig back.

There is no way that Conan was ever "entitled" to another man's job, it was beyond extra-ordinarily rude and well into super assholish to demand that Leno "retire" so he could get it. This was a man's job. Conan turned super asshole when he demanded that Leno be taken out of his job so Conan could have it. He was fired for the dip in ratings. Leno has not "fucked Conan over", although Leno has cause to do a hell of a lot more to Conan than fuck him over. You come after my job, you should expect a lot worse than an imaginary "fucking over."

Conan was a super asshole the moment he demanded another man's job. And his fans are super assholes for not realizing this. Particularly when Conan moves to another network at 11:30 and gets fired again for losing to both Leno and Letterman.none of this happened except in your fevered imagination.

[Justin_Bailey]

I remember some people here had this nutty idea that Hollywood stars would be mad at mean old Jay and boycott the Tonight show starting today. Looking at the lineup for this week we can see that's not true.

Monday, March 1 - Guests include Jamie Foxx, Olympic Gold Medal Skier Lindsey Vonn and a musical performance by Brad Paisley

Tuesday, March 2 - Guests include Sarah Palin, Olympic Gold Medal Snowboarder Shaun White and a musical performance by Adam Lambert

Wednesday, March 3 - “Jaywalk All-Stars” with the Cast of “Jersey Shore,” Chelsea Handler, the most decorated American Winter Olympian of all time Speed Skater Apolo Anton Ohno and a musical performance by Avril Lavigne

**Thursday, March 4 - Guests include Matthew McConaughey and Brett Favre and a musical performance by Lifehouse

**Friday, March 5 - Guests include Morgan Freeman, Jason Reitman and a musical performance by Robin Thicke

You know, this is not a lineup of giant stars you would expect for Jay's first week back. There just might be something to the bitterness some of these people feel towards him. There's a lot of Olympians, sarah Palin and a bunch of dramatic actors.

Just going by this guest list, there's a very real chance comedians have given up on Jay.

[Bijou Drains]

The idea that Hollywood people are mad at Leno is just totally laughable. There might be a few that are mad but 95% are going to go on the show.

And the idea that a comedian would not want a national TV gig is even funnier.

[Justin_Bailey]

And the idea that a comedian would not want a national TV gig is even funnier.

Excuse me, comic actor.

But I'm serious, Leno's guest list for this week is weak. And if that's what it's going to look like going forward, Letterman will cream him. I mean, look at Letterman's lineup:


Monday, March 1
Bill Murray
Ludacris (CD, "Battle of the Sexes")

Tuesday, March 2
Mitt Romney (Book, "No Apology: The Case for American Greatness")
Top Ten with Evan Lysacek (U.S. Olympic Gold Medalist)
Mia Wasikowska (Alice In Wonderland)

Wednesday, March 3
Jerry Seinfeld (The Marriage Ref)
Tom Brokaw (Boomers)

Thursday, March 4
Tom Hanks (Pacific)
Barbara Walters Top Ten
Spoon (CD, "Transference")

Friday, March 5
Matt Damon (Green Zone)
Comedian Danny Bhoy
Corrine Bailey Rae (CD, "The Sea")

[Bijou Drains]

Letterman will cream him?

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/02/leno-crushes-letterman-in-return/43507

[2ply]

Jay and Dave's guest lists look to me like they have the same amount of A-listers.

here's a link to the late night ratings for Monday, Jay's first night back. (http://www.boston.com/ae/tv/blog/2010/03/looks_like_the.html)

Leno - 5.4 rating 14 percent
Nightline - 3.4 rating and 8 share
Letterman - 3.0 rating and 8 share

Looks like things are going to be right back where they were before Leno was moved to 10pm.

[anson2995]

none of this happened except in your fevered imagination.

Conan did push Leno out of his job, and he did fail to get ratings at 11:30. Even if you think Leno is the king of the A-holes, you have to admit those two truths.

[Oscalo]

Excuse me, comic actor.

But I'm serious, Leno's guest list for this week is weak. And if that's what it's going to look like going forward, Letterman will cream him. I mean, look at Letterman's lineup:




Oh please, don't give me that horseshit. Morgan Freeman, Jamie Foxx and Jason Reitman are all pretty big, as are the Olympic Gold medalists. And regardless of how you feel about her, you can't deny that Sarah Palin is one of the biggest celebrities in American politics right now.

[Justin_Bailey]

Conan did push Leno out of his job, and he did fail to get ratings at 11:30. Even if you think Leno is the king of the A-holes, you have to admit those two truths.

Conan did no such thing. NBC came up with the transition plan all by their lonesome.

And his failure to get ratings was directly connected to Leno's failure at 10/new Late Show host ratings loss.

Neither of those things were his fault.

[Irishman]

Conan was the one who in 2004 said Jay Leno did not deserve the Tonight Show, that he was ruining it, and Conan was the one who made it a condition of keeping him at NBC that his contract stipulate that he get the Tonight Show at the end of Leno's contract. That was Conan's idea, not NBC's. NBC may have thought the idea had merit, but it was Conan that put that in place.

The timing of the transition, the change to move Leno to prime time, that may have been NBC. But do you think NBC would have been messing with Leno and the Tonight Show if they hadn't had that contract with Conan in place? No.

What were Leno's options instead of taking the prime time gig? Riding out his contract getting paid for no work, then jumping to a competitor? NBC wouldn't have let that happen. They'd have shorted Conan before shorting Leno. NBC tried to swing a gig where they could keep Leno and Conan, and Leno went along with it. When it wasn't working, they tried to swing a different gig that would keep Leno and Conan, and Leno was willing to try it. How does that make Leno the asshole here?

NBC execs certainly get a round of asshole hats. But Conan gets his own asshole hat for that move in 2004. And for trying to spin this whole thing against Leno.

[friedo]

Conan was the one who in 2004 said Jay Leno did not deserve the Tonight Show, that he was ruining it

When did he say that?

[Ellis Dee]

NBC execs certainly get a round of asshole hats. But Conan gets his own asshole hat for that move in 2004. And for trying to spin this whole thing against Leno.Leno brought the shitstorm on himself by publicly playing the niceguy card in words and then doing a complete 180 at every turn.

2004: "I will step down in 2009 because I respect the show and I'm a nice guy."
2009: "I'm still #1, so why don't I take a primetime gig that'll tank the late night shows."

2009: "I'll move to 11:35 for a half hour show if Conan's okay with it."
2009: "Conan's not okay with it? That's cool, I'll move to 11:35 anyway."

And in what way would doing a 30 minute show at 11:35 NOT completely destroy the Tonight Show as we know it? He doesn't give a fuck about the Tonight Show brand despite his longstanding claims that he does.

Note: I've never liked Conan and still don't.

[Bijou Drains]

Leno had no choice in 2004, he doesn't own the show and NBC told him they wanted him out by 2009.

In 2009 his choice was stick with NBC at 10 or go to another network.

[Ellis Dee]

Right, exactly. So he should have doen what he said he'd do and leave the Tonight Show and stay gone. Ideally he should have gone to Fox and crushed the Tonight Show in the ratings. That's what a man would do. A whiny, scheming hypocritcal douchebage would do what he actually did.

[Bijou Drains]

A "man" would turn down a shot at 10 PM to possibly help NBC and instead try to crush them at 11:35? That's a really strange opinion but I guess I am used that around here.

[Swallowed My Cellphone]

Oh please, don't give me that horseshit. Morgan Freeman, Jamie Foxx and Jason Reitman are all pretty big,I've never heard of Jason Reitman.

[Bijou Drains]

Reitman has directed only a few full length films and he already has 4 Oscar nominations, he could win this year


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_Reitman

[Justin_Bailey]

Reitman has directed only a few full length films and he already has 4 Oscar nominations, he could win this year

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_Reitman

But as far as late night guests go, the director of Juno may as well be a nobody.

[Troy McClure SF]

You know, this is not a lineup of giant stars you would expect for Jay's first week back. There just might be something to the bitterness some of these people feel towards him. There's a lot of Olympians, sarah Palin and a bunch of dramatic actors.

Just going by this guest list, there's a very real chance comedians have given up on Jay.

Some of the guests are indeed impressive, but the Olympians are probably dragged to Leno on a leash by NBC, then you have the world's biggest attention whore, and then Avril Lavigne? Robin Thicke? Meh. Might be a good lineup for a random week in the spring, but not for the first week of a new (old) show.

Also, I think people would be more sympathetic to Jay if we hadn't watched a fairly similar situation happen in 1992. It appeared to most that Jay screwed Dave, and now it appears that Jay screwed Conan. Fool me once... Plus, Jay took a couple of real low shots at Letterman & Conan in the last week or two of Conan's Tonight Show run. I imagine that cemented many people's opinion of Jay.

[Bijou Drains]

I guess Letterman is really ticked off at Leno , that's why he asked Jay to be in his Super Bowl ad. :)

[Irishman]

friedo said:
When did he say that?

I went looking for where I had read that, can't seem to find it now. I thought it was linked in the big Conan/Leno thread, but can't dig it out now.

[anson2995]

Conan did no such thing. NBC came up with the transition plan all by their lonesome.

And his failure to get ratings was directly connected to Leno's failure at 10/new Late Show host ratings loss.

Neither of those things were his fault.

I think you're wrong on both counts. Conan told NBC he would walk in 2004 unless he was given a definite date to take over the Tonight Show. And his ratings were lousy in the three months before Leno's 10pm show started.

[astorian]

I wouldn't be too concerned with the quality of guests on ANY talk show right now. This is PROBABLY just a seasonal lull.

February and March are months in which there AREN"T any major new movies being released or new TV series making their debuts. That means the biggest stars in show biz currently have nothing to plug.

If Robert (Iron Man 2) Downey Jr. is shunning Leno in May, THEN Jay should worry about being blackballed. But I'm willing to bet the A-Listers will be there in force as soon as they have something to promote.

[Justin_Bailey]

I think you're wrong on both counts. Conan told NBC he would walk in 2004 unless he was given a definite date to take over the Tonight Show.

This interview with Conan directly says otherwise.

http://tv.gawker.com/5462309/conan-explains-why-he-didnt-leave-nbc-in-2004-on-charlie-rose

And his ratings were lousy in the three months before Leno's 10pm show started.

Which is a) pretty common when a new host takes over a late night show and b) indirectly Jay Leno's fault (by NBC's own admission as to the reason behind his cancellation).