Survivor April 15 2010

[Mahaloth]

Oh, Rusell is just fun to watch. I can't blame the Heroes, it does look like the girls are in charge over at the villain tribe.

I can't believe they slipped him their idol. :D

[Mahaloth]

Shoot. Can a mod move this to Cafe Society?

[rockle]

Reported with your request.

Also: I basically hate everyone at this point. Even Colby, whom I love under normal circumstances. Is it bad form to root for Cthulhu to rise up from the sea and devour them all? Saving Probst for last, of course, and eating him slowly, starting with the eyeballs.

[xash]

Moved Game Room > CS.

-xash
Administrator

[notfrommensa]

I wonder how long Russell would have lasted in this game if the other survivors had seen his season?

when this season started, I thought the other 19 castaways would have been briefed with the executive summary of Survivor: Samoa. It is becoming crystal clear that these people had no clue on what happened in Samoa.

I wonder what would have happened if Shambo (instead of Candice) had been on the heroes tribe. Or Laura (instead of Danielle) was one of the villains.

[enalzi]

I really didn't think they would've give the idol away. I was sure with all that build up that something would go wrong and either the Heroes would lose or they wouldn't be able to get the idol to him.

I wonder how this will all play out. We all know that just because someone has the idol doesn't mean they're safe, especially if the Heroes figure out they screwed up and pull over Sandra. But with two idols, Russell's group has a much bigger advantage.

[jayjay]

I would say that this catapults J.T. rather far ahead of James "I've Got Two Idols In My Backpack Buh-bye".

[Salem]

And when the Heroes see that neither Russell or Pavarti aren't gone....hmmmm. Russell will probably concoct some story about how he had to use the idol but couldn't get her out.

Dumb move on JT's part, but I'll give him a slight pass on not knowing Russell's game from the previous season. It was a calculated risk and not a bad theory. But of course, it was a dumb move without any definite knowledge and just an assumption.

Not sure if commenting on the previews is "spoiler material" so just in case...
It does look like post merge, the story will begin to unravel with Sandra ratting out Russell to Rupert. The villains should have gotten rid of her. She's more conniving than Courtney, although Courtney may have done the same thing.

[notfrommensa]

It was a dumb move but I don't think it trumps James gaffe. JT had a plan, (albeit a bad plan) and it looks like Colby and Rupert were on-board with it.

It is easy to Monday morning quarterback when you have the defensive alignment in front of you. JT had a plan to advance his tribe further in the game. Didn't work.

[Mahaloth]

It was a dumb move but I don't think it trumps James gaffe. JT had a plan, (albeit a bad plan) and it looks like Colby and Rupert were on-board with it.

It is easy to Monday morning quarterback when you have the defensive alignment in front of you. JT had a plan to advance his tribe further in the game. Didn't work.

It's actually a good plan if you realize his whole perception of Russel comes from this one game, which has been on the other side of the entire time. He has zero idea who he is and their assumption about a "girl alliance" is actually pretty reasonable.

[rockle]

Speaking of armchair quarterbacking: I kind of like Colby's chances now. I think. And also, I wonder how different this game would be if they had been able to bring Brian Heidik back. He makes Russell look like Snow White.

[Mahaloth]

By the way, the tone of JT's letter also indicates he has no idea if Russell has a strategic mind or not. It's clear he has ZERO idea who Rusell really is.

[enalzi]

By the way, the tone of JT's letter also indicates he has no idea if Russell has a strategic mind or not. It's clear he has ZERO idea who Rusell really is.

I love that letter because it would've have worked PERFECTLY if it had been given to Coach.

[StarvingButStrong]

I've got the impression lots of contestants watch the episodes in a cluster of family and friends. I picture JT in a room full of people who are carefully not looking at him.

[Spoke]

It's actually a good plan if you realize his whole perception of Russel comes from this one game, which has been on the other side of the entire time. He has zero idea who he is and their assumption about a "girl alliance" is actually pretty reasonable.

That's my take, too. It only seems like a dumb move to us because we have perfect knowledge.

Also, remember that JT is in trouble with his tribe for looking for the idol without them. Really the only way to redeem himself with them is to give the idol away in a way that helps the tribe. This seemed to be a way to do that from JT's limited perspective.

[magnusblitz]

Ugh. I kinda wish nothing in this episode happened.

First off, I HATE HATE HATE that stupid challenge they used for the reward one (and similar type ones). Want to have something involving balance and stamina? Okay, I'm down with that. But don't set it up in such a way that whoever has the smallest feet has a huge advantage. That's not testing stamina/endurance/balance, it's testing your foot size. At least give each survivor personalized pegs proportional to their footsize. At least it was a reward challenge, not an immunity one.

Secondly, JT, you are a moron. At least some of the other Heroes went along with the move just because it takes the idol out of JT's hands. But why would you give the idol to someone you know nothing about? Terrible assumption on the women's alliance. Not to mention someone who got put on the "Villains" tribe... should be an indicator there.

I also despise Jerri at this point for not having a clue about what's going on.

Oh well, at least they voted off Courtney (who's just annoying) instead of Sandra (who is annoying but actually makes good moves in the game). Seems like she'll help unravel Russell's schemes. I can only hope.

[Eyebrows 0f Doom]

I really don't think it's fair that Russell was given such a huge advantage this season by coming into the group as a complete unknown. No one would be so quick to trust him, and certainly not give him idols, if they had actually already seen him play the game. It really stinks of favoritism by the producers or something.

[enalzi]

I really don't think it's fair that Russell was given such a huge advantage this season by coming into the group as a complete unknown. No one would be so quick to trust him, and certainly not give him idols, if they had actually already seen him play the game. It really stinks of favoritism by the producers or something.

Really, they shouldn't trust him because they don't know anything about him other than he's a villain. The villains were right to distrust him almost immediately.

[squeegee]

What was up with Sandra voting for Courtney?

[enalzi]

What was up with Sandra voting for Courtney?

Probably trying not to piss anyone off if she sticks around.

[BMada]

no more sassy Courtney. At least Sandra lives another week to screw Russell's plans. JT giving an idol to a "villain" needs to be one of the all-time dumb moves in Survivor history. I was glad to see it happen, because no hero deserves to win Survivor, they sealed their fate by giving the villains another advantage even with the same numbers going into a merge.

[The Controvert]

Russell can tell JT that Parvati had an idol, so he couldn't get rid of her. Therefore, Courtney went.

[squeegee]

Russell can tell JT that Parvati had an idol, so he couldn't get rid of her. Therefore, Courtney went.

I was just saying something like that to my better half - Russell can spin a story no matter what happens where he can say, "sorry I couldn't play the idol because they weren't voting for me, they went after one of the girl-alliance members for some reason, aw shucks." etc. This will obviously not play well post-merge, but Russell has quite a few options even then. I'm picturing a post-merge scene where JT asks for the idol back and Russell tells him to suck eggs.

[Ellis Dee]

JT's move was a pretty smart play, but hey, "fortune favors the bold" doesn't mean that every bold move always works 100% of the time.

At this point I'm rooting for 6 people. I still hate Rupert and always want him gone next. Though I'm not rooting for them Sandra, Colby and Danielle are all growing on me. Everyone else I'm actively rooting for.

I'm rooting for Parvati most of all. She clearly has the most game and IMO the best chance to win it all based on merit. JT is a close second.

[rockle]

I still hate Rupert and always want him gone next.I'm a Rupert apologist, so I'm not exactly a reliable source here, but I actually think he's less annoying than usual. I wish Jeff would stop bringing up the "two! broken! toes!" but I think Jeff has always been kind of a turd (which is why I want Cthulhu to eat him last, and most slowliest).

I love that, yet again some more, Sandra is going with the "throw my vote wherever to stick around" strategy -- it's what won her the game last time. I like consistency. But if she doesn't do well this time, it's good to know that she can always work as a shill for Outback Steakhouse.

And every time I see Parvati on my TV I want to punch her in the teeth. I can't believe it's only been 100 days that she's been on Survivor. It feels like 100 years.

[Mahaloth]

I really don't think it's fair that Russell was given such a huge advantage this season by coming into the group as a complete unknown. No one would be so quick to trust him, and certainly not give him idols, if they had actually already seen him play the game. It really stinks of favoritism by the producers or something.

Well, what could they do? I think from a producer perspective, it just made sense to cast him since he was so popular/hated/notorious in the previous season, but they already had this one set to go only a few days after the last one.

It was either put him in the game like this, or they would have had Shane back in, which would have been more dull, even if you dislike Russell.

[Mahaloth]

Jeff Probst gives his thoughts on the advantage of no one knowing Russell. This is from his blog about last night's episode.



There’s been a lot of debate about whether Russell had an advantage or a disadvantage since nobody knew anything about him coming into this season. My take is that he had neither. We told everybody at the start of the show that they should read a lot into the fact that while they hadn’t seen Russell play, Russell was selected as one of the 5 most notorious male villains of all time. These are seasoned players, they knew this meant that Russell was a bad dude. On the flip side, when we asked Russell to join the H v V cast, we told him there is a very good chance you’ll be voted out early because nobody knows you, nobody has played with you and therefore nobody can trust you. Russell knew that was a risk going in. So both sides had fair warning. They were just as likely to vote him out in episode one for fear of the unknown as they were to keep him. Once Russell survived a couple of votes and showed what kind of player he is – intimidating, calculating, cunning – all bets were off. (http://popwatch.ew.com/2010/04/16/jeff-probst-blogs-survivor-heroes-vs-villains-episode-9/)

[Mahaloth]

By the way, I really agree with Jeff that Survivor's crew did an amazing job of highlighting the drama of JT giving the idol away and were able to show the whole process without revealing it to the players.

[John Mace]

I was just saying something like that to my better half - Russell can spin a story no matter what happens where he can say, "sorry I couldn't play the idol because they weren't voting for me, they went after one of the girl-alliance members for some reason, aw shucks." etc. This will obviously not play well post-merge, but Russell has quite a few options even then. I'm picturing a post-merge scene where JT asks for the idol back and Russell tells him to suck eggs.

Russel needs to say he played the idol. He can just say he had to vote for Courtney instead of Parvati because P has the idol, and he was afraid she might play it. Or, he can make up some BS story about the dynamics of the girl alliance that they wouldn't know about.

[J-P L]

Maybe this should be in a seperate thread but I'll do it here anyways. Lets list the bone head moves that have been done in the various series.

1. JT (the Heroes) gives the idol to a member of the opposing tribe

2. Little oriental guy (can't remember his name or season) gives away a truck

3. Someone (can't remember his name again) gives away the idol only to be voted off during the same tribal council.


Any other stupid moves?

[jayjay]

3. Someone (can't remember his name again) gives away the idol only to be voted off during the same tribal council.

This was Erik in Fans vs. Favorites (Micronesia). He was (I think) the last surviving man in the game and KNEW that he needed to get immunity to survive, but he allowed himself to be wheedled into giving his immunity to Natalie during tribal. I really was uncomfortable watching that tribal...it's like all the women turned into Mean Girls, with the big insincere smiles and sad eyes and poor, stupid, ice-cream scooper Erik fell for it like a great big trout flopping in the bottom of the boat.

[Skammer]

Russel needs to say he played the idol. He can just say he had to vote for Courtney instead of Parvati because P has the idol, and he was afraid she might play it. Or, he can make up some BS story about the dynamics of the girl alliance that they wouldn't know about. The ironic thing is, this has the element of being true: Parvati does have an idol. Russell just doesn't know it yet.

The villians would have been smarter to get rid of Sandra instead of Courtney -- they should know from Sandra's previous win that she won't hesitate to throw her vote to a majority (heck she did it last night!). She's the most likely to join up with the Heroes and try to pick off the Villians.

Even down 6-4 at the merge (with Sandra flipping), the Villians are in good shape having two idols. Thanks J.T.!

The only person I kinda feel bad for is Jeri. I was liking her this time around, but she is the fourth wheel in her own alliance and she's not a good candidate to switch sides -- she'd probably rather go home than ally with Coldby or Rupert; and even if she did she'd end up being seventh in an alliance of seven instead of fourth in an alliance of four.

[Jas09]

I love that, yet again some more, Sandra is going with the "throw my vote wherever to stick around" strategy -- it's what won her the game last time. I like consistency. But if she doesn't do well this time, it's good to know that she can always work as a shill for Outback Steakhouse.And Amanda is going with her patented "make no moves and try to blend into the background, all the while pouting about how unfair the game is" strategy.
And every time I see Parvati on my TV I want to punch her in the teeth. I can't believe it's only been 100 days that she's been on Survivor. It feels like 100 years.Pretty sure that was Amanda, not Parvati. At least Parvati plays the damn game without crying about it.

To add to the blunders list would have to be James going home with two immunity idols in his pocket (and only a few times he even could have used one). There was also at least one guy that fell for an obviously fake idol (and one that fell for a pretty good imitation one, IIRC).

Also, Danielle's boobs. That is all.

[muldoonthief]

Any other stupid moves?

There was James, who had 2 immunity idols, and only 3 councils remaining where the idols could be played, who didn't play one and got voted out. Remember he was a challenge monster, so he really could have counted on winning at least one of the following 2 immunity challenges.

Pretty sure that was Amanda, not Parvati. At least Parvati plays the damn game without crying about it.
Amanda hit 100 days at the reward challenge. At Tribal, Jeff said Parvati will hit 100 days tomorrow.

I really think J.T. made a dumb, dumb, play, even given the limited info he had. If it was 7V-4H, maybe I'd give him some credit. But he knew it would be 5-5 after they won the challenge, so why give away a huge advantage to yourself and your team, just to keep around one guy who may or may not be on your side afterwards? It seems like a huge risk for little reward. If they merge at 5-5, then you can deal with the women's alliance. If they don't merge, and Russell is gone, you really, really have to like the Heroes chances at the next immunity challenge, leading to a 5H-4V merge, and the women's alliance is meaningless.

[singular1]

I do like thar James doesn't take himself too seriously = when they showed the heroes' luxery items, his was his two unused idols.

[Jas09]

Amanda hit 100 days at the reward challenge. At Tribal, Jeff said Parvati will hit 100 days tomorrow.Ah, thanks. My DVR cut out before the tribal, but since it was pretty damn obvious to me who was going home I haven't tried to watch it yet. Figures that Parvati would be pretty close behind Amanda in total days played.
I really think J.T. made a dumb, dumb, play, even given the limited info he had. If it was 7V-4H, maybe I'd give him some credit. But he knew it would be 5-5 after they won the challenge, so why give away a huge advantage to yourself and your team, just to keep around one guy who may or may not be on your side afterwards? It seems like a huge risk for little reward. If they merge at 5-5, then you can deal with the women's alliance. If they don't merge, and Russell is gone, you really, really have to like the Heroes chances at the next immunity challenge, leading to a 5H-4V merge, and the women's alliance is meaningless.I thought this too, but then looked back and think it might have come down to JT not feeling good about his tribe staying together. Why would he trust Candice to not switch over to a girl's alliance to get rid of the remaining guys? Or Amanda for that matter? I think JT (and Colby and Rupert as well) felt like even going in 5v5 they were a minority alliance, and needed at least one more on their side.

If you look at it as a desperation move by a guy that knows he's likely the first one targeted at the merge (for many reasons: found the idol, won before, strong individual immunity threat), it's not quite as dumb. Still not smart (especially with what we know) but not as dumb as it seems from the sofa.

[GargoyleWB]

Any other stupid moves?

The guy that fell for the fake immunity idol that was just a stick with a smiley face scratched in it. Greatest television moment in history, ranks up there with the moon landing.

"It's a fucking stick!"

[muldoonthief]

My favorite thing about fake immunity idols is when Jeff says "This, however, is not a Hidden Immunity Idol" then throws it in the fire. Why not just cock-punch the player too?

[Mahaloth]

2. Little oriental guy (can't remember his name or season) gives away a truck


That was Yao-Man, who gave the truck to that genuinely dumb idiot dude with the weird nicknames. He traded it to get an idol, which the idiot did not give him due to lack of honor.

I do like thar James doesn't take himself too seriously = when they showed the heroes' luxery items, his was his two unused idols.

Where did you see that? That's awesome. :)

[rockle]

And every time I see Parvati on my TV I want to punch her in the teeth. I can't believe it's only been 100 days that she's been on Survivor. It feels like 100 years.
Pretty sure that was Amanda, not Parvati. At least Parvati plays the damn game without crying about it.No, it's definitely Parvati. I don't like Parvati. No real reason why, except ... I just don't. Can't fault her gameplay, I will give her that much.

Not sure why Amanda doesn't bother me, but she doesn't. I am not rational in these things.

The only person I kinda feel bad for is Jeri. I was liking her this time around, but she is the fourth wheel in her own alliance and she's not a good candidate to switch sides -- she'd probably rather go home than ally with Coldby or Rupert; and even if she did she'd end up being seventh in an alliance of seven instead of fourth in an alliance of four.Don't feel bad for Jerri. If you do, then the terrorists win. Or something. If she'd really rather go home then throw her lot in with Colby or Rupert, after she's already been allied with Coach and Russell, then that's her own damn stupid problem. You could seriously do worse than aligning with Colby.

I am starting to remember why I hate these seasons of Survivor, when all the players have done this before: everybody is pretty much the same as they ever were. Nobody does anything differently, really, and ... I am weary. Same strategies, same talking points, even the same outcomes of the same challenges. I mean, every season is getting to be pretty much the same, anyway, so can't we have new, different people to heckle from the cheap seats?

And yet I watch anyway, because Burnett owns the part of my soul that doesn't already belong to Bruckheimer and Mountain Dew.

[randwill]

I was struck by the fraternizing at the end of the challenge, during which JT passed off the idol to Russel. I was wondering how he planned to do that, since I don't recall that we've ever been shown the two tribes hanging out together, talking and hugging at the end of other challenges. Usually they just cut to the separated groups and Jeff commenting to the winners and the losers. ("I got nothing for you.") I would think that the producers would normally keep the tribes separate in order to avoid the passing of information and wondered if they allowed this exception in order to facilitate the idol exchange.

[FlightlessBird]

My favorite thing about fake immunity idols is when Jeff says "This, however, is not a Hidden Immunity Idol" then throws it in the fire. Why not just cock-punch the player too?
BWaaaAAHaaaA!!:D

I don't think JT is as bad off as he thinks. Even if there is a majority of women in the game, women have never been good at sticking to their alliances late in the game. (Except once as we talked about in a previous thread)
I agree with muldoonthief that this is a move for when you are down at the merge. Being even at the merge with an idol is a bigger advantage than the risk of giving it up.
If they're even, it comes down to who's a tighter alliance down to the 5th person.
And if both are super tight, then the purple rock of doom, or fire-lighting-challenge will commence.

If you can convince everyone in your tribe that they are in the final 3 with you, then no-one'll flip. But Jerri is on the outside of her 'close alliance' (as evidenced by the tribal) and of course Sandra is ready to flip. While the Heroes seem tighter and everyone feels they have a shot at the final 3. Except maybe Colby, but I'll bet he feels more comfortable with the Heroes than the Villians and wouldn't flip.

randwill, I don't think it ever happens. I think it was a team decision to get JT close to Russel. They probably played it off as being so close to the merge, but I imagine it would have pinged some Villians' weird-o-meter.

[Spoke]

Now that I think about it, a really masterly move for JT would have been to fake the handoff to Russell and just keep the idol. :D

Who's Russell going to complain to? Who would believe him, with him being a villain?

Oooh! Oooh! Even better: Hand Russell a fake idol and keep the real one. Even if Russell recognizes it as a fake, he's just think that either a) JT got fooled by a fake, or b) the Heroes are trying to play him for a fool.

[singular1]

Where did you see that? That's awesome. :)

I caught it when they flashed a shot of the big basket holding the luxuory items of each tribe as the reward for the Reward Challenge.

[LavenderBlue]

Now that I think about it, a really masterly move for JT would have been to fake the handoff to Russell and just keep the idol. :D

Who's Russell going to complain to? Who would believe him, with him being a villain?

Oooh! Oooh! Even better: Hand Russell a fake idol and keep the real one. Even if Russell recognizes it as a fake, he's just think that either a) JT got fooled by a fake, or b) the Heroes are trying to play him for a fool.

That's so true.

I think Jeff was being far kinder to JT than he deserves. JT knows nothing about Russell? Why trust him?

[Roadfood]

Maybe this should be in a seperate thread but I'll do it here anyways. Lets list the bone head moves that have been done in the various series.

1. JT (the Heroes) gives the idol to a member of the opposing tribe

2. Little oriental guy (can't remember his name or season) gives away a truck

3. Someone (can't remember his name again) gives away the idol only to be voted off during the same tribal council.

Any other stupid moves?Oh com'on, the number one stupidest move in Survivor history happened just a few episodes ago! Tyson switching his vote and thus essentially voting himself out. It was dumb because he had no reason to believe Russell. It was monumentally dumb because, even if Russell was telling the truth, Tyson didn't need to switch his vote. Russell's vote alone (along with the other three Rob-alliance votes) would have set Parvati home.

And I think honorable mention goes to Jeri putting Coach between a rock and a hard place by throwing in with Russell. Sure, Coach was an idiot in the way he handled that, but Jeri was stupidity incarnate for at least not talking with Coach before aligning with Russell.

[Roadfood]

Jeff Probst gives his thoughts on the advantage of no one knowing Russell. This is from his blog about last night's episode.Normally, I think Jeff is very insightful, but he's absolutely wrong on this point. If Tyson had seen Russell's season, he never would have taken the bait and switched his vote to Parvati. And if JT had seen Russell's season, he never would have given him the idol. Two extremely pivotal moments in this season would have happened differently if Russell's history was known.

[Mahaloth]

That's so true.

I think Jeff was being far kinder to JT than he deserves. JT knows nothing about Russell? Why trust him?

Because using the info. available to him, he thinks that Russ is in a bad situation and so he's trusting that Russ will take advantage of the help. He has no idea things are going great for Russell.

[The Controvert]

I think this really illustrates what a strategic master Russell Hantz is. Other players try bold moves all the time, but it is easy for those to fail.

Russell has made more outright in-your-face bold moves than any other player in the history of Survivor. So far, every single one has worked to his advantage. Either he is very, very lucky or he is crazy smart to have thought out more moves ahead than anyone else.

[PunditLisa]

Ding, dong, the skinny bitch is gone!

Seriously, the Villains were incredibly stupid to vote out Rob & Coach so early as it practically assured that they'd be 5-5 going into a merge. Argh!

I think Russell made a big mistake singling out Danielle and Parvati as the two people he could trust. Made it very clear to Jerri that she was on the outs.

I have no doubt that Sandra and Jerri are going to make a beeline to Colby and tell him exactly what's going on. So with 7-3, they could still pull off a win, provided they play their cards right (by double crossing Russell into thinking that they're still of the belief that he's on their side now).

[tsm]

I loved Russell's playing dumb with Colby during the immunity challenge.

Russell: "Who should I vote for?"
Colby: "Parvati."
Russell (looking like Colby has given him a revelation): "Yeah, she's running the show."

Haha!

[Lamar Mundane]

I don't know why there doesn't seem to be any of the "vote out the winners" vibe that there was in the All-Stars season. A million bucks is a lot of money, and if all I got from playing was $50,000 or even $100,000, I'd find it hard to vote someone a second million. Yet we're left with three former winners, plus Rupert who got a million for being a loser. Amanda's been in the final twice, and Danielle, Colby, and Russell have all finished second. That's eight of the ten left. The only winner that's out is Tom.

It looks to me that it's shaping up to be another under-the-radar type that wins. Numerically, with Sandra obviously having to switch sides, the Heroes are at an advantage, but the Villians have two immunity idols, but they all know that Russell has one, so flushing it out shouldn't be too hard.

Candace hasn't gotten a single vote against her yet, and Amanda got a couple in the first two episodes but none since then. They seem to have a bond going, and JT seems to be with them. Rupert is a follower, and Colby seems to be just along for the ride. I see the two (A&C) setting up a plan getting themselves to the final, with either JT or Parvati being the third. Candace plays the "already a winner/finalist" card on the other two and wins it.

That may not work because there will be too many winners on the jury.

[Ellis Dee]

I am starting to remember why I hate these seasons of Survivor, when all the players have done this before: everybody is pretty much the same as they ever were. Nobody does anything differently, really, and ... I am weary. Same strategies, same talking points, even the same outcomes of the same challenges.Except for JT and Boston Rob.

[Justin_Bailey]

I really don't think it's fair that Russell was given such a huge advantage this season by coming into the group as a complete unknown. No one would be so quick to trust him, and certainly not give him idols, if they had actually already seen him play the game. It really stinks of favoritism by the producers or something.

Except Parvati had him figured out on day one. And she joked with Jeff... again!... about running the show. She is running the show, it's obvious she's running the show, and no one believes it.

Russell is dead meat. The only question is when Parvati stabs him in the heart.

[palacheck]

I think Parvati or Sandra will win, with Russell getting fan favorite again. I wonder how much the russellgotscrewed site has brought in.

[PunditLisa]

I think Parvati or Sandra will win, with Russell getting fan favorite again. I wonder how much the russellgotscrewed site has brought in.

Did Russell win "fan favorite"?

[John Mace]

Normally, I think Jeff is very insightful, but he's absolutely wrong on this point. If Tyson had seen Russell's season, he never would have taken the bait and switched his vote to Parvati. And if JT had seen Russell's season, he never would have given him the idol. Two extremely pivotal moments in this season would have happened differently if Russell's history was known.

Yes, I agree. Russel is like an II magnate, so I can't see JT giving him one had he seen Russel's game.

A better strategy for the Heroes, if they thought there was girl alliance, would be to have one of their girls pretend to defect after the merge, and then use that to vote out one of the Villains to gain a numerical advantage. That strategy would most likely have involved using JT's II.

[judikium]

It's amazing that Parvati could actually win this again. The other possible winner I see is actually Jerri- if she plays the situation she's in now well, she could make it, I think.

I really can't see much of anyone else winning. I guess Russell, but if he makes final three, he's going to run into the same jury trouble he did last time (especially since he doesn't know he lost Samoa yet). There will be someone better to vote for if he does make the finals.

[Justin_Bailey]

It's amazing that Parvati could actually win this again. The other possible winner I see is actually Jerri- if she plays the situation she's in now well, she could make it, I think.

If I had to rank the remaining ten, I'd agree with you on Parvati, but a few others definitely still have a good shot.

In order, I'd say...

The Players
Parvati
JT
Sandra

The Also-Rans
Colby
Amanda
Jerri
Rupert

The Coattail Riders
Candice
Danielle
Russell

[magnusblitz]

I don't think Jerri has a chance. She seems to be completely mentally checked out of the game and only doing what seems immediately obvious to keep her in the game. Lately, that's been staying with Russell, even though it cost her her strongest ally (Coach). She tried to justify it that she felt she was only #4 at best with Rob... and yet she's #4 at best with Russell. She has no chance, and she'll be gone as soon as the alliances shake out, one is left on top. She could make it as far as final 4 but there's no chance she'll actually win.

At this point the only guy I think that has a chance of winning is Colby, and even that's an outside chance that would rely on him winning some well-timed Immunities and his alliance shaking out on top over Russell's crew. I think Russell and JT will be seen as untrustworthy, and Rupert hasn't done enough to justify winning.

I think the strongest chances of winning go to Parvati, Danielle and Candice. I think Parvarti and Danielle need to be careful though, if they go into the Final 3 together they might cancel each other out and the third person could win (if they're smart, they'd bring Rupert along in the final 3 - or Amanda, since she's terrible at Final Councils).

[Justin_Bailey]

I think the strongest chances of winning go to Parvati, Danielle and Candice. I think Parvarti and Danielle need to be careful though, if they go into the Final 3 together they might cancel each other out and the third person could win (if they're smart, they'd bring Rupert along in the final 3 - or Amanda, since she's terrible at Final Councils).

Danielle and Candice are coattail riders that would get creamed in a final three. I don't think I've seen either one have an original thought the entire season and the way Sandra destroyed Danielle at the last TC, she's lost all respect among the rest of the Villains.

[LilyoftheField]

I'm calling Danielle for the 'stealth win'!

:cool:

[Ellis Dee]

The Coattail Riders
Candice
Danielle
RussellHow do you figure Russell as a coattail rider?

[Justin_Bailey]

How do you figure Russell as a coattail rider?

Because Parvati's playing him for a sap. He's the evil public face of their alliance, but she's the one doing all the scheming and the plotting. If he makes it to the final 3, that'll come out and he'll be screwed.

But I think Parvati's going to dump him any time now.

[The Controvert]

I don't think Russell is a coattail rider in any sense of that term. He engineered the Tyson ouster with a masterful use of the idol and planting a "Russell seed" that caused Tyson to switch his vote at the last moment. This move resulted in the deconstruction of Boston Rob's alliance, that was previously in control and was trying to get Parvati out. I give Russell credit for this game changing move, not Parvati.

When Sandra tried to oust Coach, she went to Russell. If Parvati is pulling the strings, Coach would have stayed. Since Coach was voted out, that means Russell is influential in his alliance and therefore not a coattail rider.

Russell has not received as many votes as Parvati. So if anyone is the evil public face, it's Parvati. Unless you are bringing in your preconceptions from the last season.

[Spoke]

A better strategy for the Heroes, if they thought there was girl alliance, would be to have one of their girls pretend to defect after the merge, and then use that to vote out one of the Villains to gain a numerical advantage. That strategy would most likely have involved using JT's II.

The problem with that idea from JT's perspective is that it doesn't get rid of an immunity idol that has become a hot potato to him (because he was caught looking for it). In JT's situation (as it stood last week), keeping the II is just asking for a blindside in TC.

[John Mace]

The problem with that idea from JT's perspective is that it doesn't get rid of an immunity idol that has become a hot potato to him (because he was caught looking for it). In JT's situation (as it stood last week), keeping the II is just asking for a blindside in TC.
And giving it away isn't? I don't see how that vindicates him from being caught finding it. I mean, I see what you're saying that it's a bit of a problem for him, but it's still better to have it than not. Worst case, he plays it at the next TC if he thinks he's a target. And with the merge imminent, there's a good chance he won't face another TC before then.

[raindrop]

JT was trying to get rid of the idol so he could get the target off his back. But any way of getting rid of it would make him vulnerable, so why not do it in a way that is most likely to redeem himself? Getting rid of it in a way that benefits and protects his own team would have been a much better way of redeeming himself IMO. The Heroes could have used the idol to protect one of their members from the Villains' vote, while the Heroes voted in a bloc to try to oust one of the Villains. And with a little bit of snooping they could have figured out who in the Villains' camp could best help them in their scheme. With just a little effort the Heroes would have quickly and easily figured out that they could pull Sandra over to help them in their schemes. They also could have attempted to stir the pot in the Villains camp to cause a rift in the supposed girl alliance. The Heroes could have planted a false seed in the Villains camp that the Heroes had a false rift that divided them. But JT's giving the idol to his enemies as an attempt to show his own team that he is faithful to his own team just strikes me as a dumb move no matter how I look at it.

Or just think of what would have happened if Cirie was still there. There's just no way she would have ever allowed JT to give that idol to Russell, because she would have instantly seen the huge flaws and vetoed that plan in a very loud and strong protest.

And the way the Heroes made assumptions, assuming there was a Villains girl alliance, and openly telling the Villains their assumptions, was just like giving the Villains an open invitation to lie to them. The Villains didn't even have to work hard at lying or making anything up. The Heroes handed the lie to the Villains on a platter, openly made the wrong assumptions, and the Villains only had to say "yup, that's just how it is."

[notfrommensa]

When Sandra tried to oust Coach, she went to Russell. If Parvati is pulling the strings, Coach would have stayed. Since Coach was voted out, that means Russell is influential in his alliance and therefore not a coattail rider.



FTR, When Coach was voted out, Russell/Jerri/Coach voted for Courtney and Parvati/Danielle/Sandra/Courtney voted for Coach.

[magnusblitz]

Danielle and Candice are coattail riders that would get creamed in a final three. I don't think I've seen either one have an original thought the entire season and the way Sandra destroyed Danielle at the last TC, she's lost all respect among the rest of the Villains.

The thing is though, in Survivor you can often win by being a coattail rider for most of the way, as long as you also have enough moxie to stand out at the end. I think Danielle and Candice both fall into this category.

For example, let's say after the merge, it shakes out that the heroes start losing. If the Villains are voting out the strongest first, it'll be JT and Colby first. Candice, being the quietest, has a good chance to be the last Hero voted out. That gives her a decent chance to stay in the game by winning an Immunity challenge here or there or getting the Villains to start backstabbing each other. If she slides into the final 3 with two villains, she could easily win.

I'm just thinking people like Russell, Parvarti, and JT might have too big of targets on them to actually win - which opens the door for their coattail riders to take over at the finish line.

[BMada]

Danielle and Candice don't seem like the type that can argue their way into winning anything.

Danielle got outworked when arguing Sandra.

Candice cried because Amanda was all up in her shit for being sneaky and kinda a loner, then they hugged and forgave each other or what not.

Both of those moments pretty much says they can't win shit when push comes to shove. Sandra perhaps can argue anyone out. Russell will argue so hard and so brash he'll be painted as a prick. Parv can sweet talk her way to a million. Rupert, ffs I hate hearing his voice and i bet the other Survivors too, so he ain't winning shit. JT won't make it anywhere imo cuz of the HII handoff idea. Colby and Jerri are too old school and have no clue how to play Survivor anymore. And we all know how bad Amanda is in the final 2 or final 3, and she probably hasn't learned jack shit because she's been so bad not keeping her crying in check.