Who will run for the 2012 presidency?

[Enderw24]

Damnit. I'm not getting the hang of this forum at all.

[Fenris]

I don't think the Repubs are showing their hand yet--Certainly Obama will run again...it'll be interesting to see if Hillary challenges him (I kinda think she might).

[Airman Doors, USAF]

If Hillary does challenge him, what will be the basis of her challenge? It can't be foreign policy, because that's as much her purview as it is his.

[Marley23]

I don't think the Repubs are showing their hand yet--Certainly Obama will run again...it'll be interesting to see if Hillary challenges him (I kinda think she might).
Definitely not going to happen. There's just no way: this isn't done, and it would cause a large conflict of interest with her current job, potentially leaving her with nothing.

I think the major Republican candidates are obvious by this point. I do wonder if Jim DeMint is going to be tempted to run.

[racer72]

The Republicans have a kiosk at a local mall to promote their 2010 candidates. I noticed a stack of "Palin 2012" bumper stickers among the other propaganda.

[Lynn Bodoni]

Obama will run again, unless he's incapacitated somehow. If he is out of the race for some reason, Hillary will graciously allow herself to be nominated.

Palin will probably run, if she isn't distracted by something shiny. I don't know who else the Republicans will want. Possibly one or both of the Pauls.

[Gyrate]

I think that the Republican field won't settle until after the 2010 election, if only because it will provide a better gauge of what sort of candidate the American people are minded to put into office at the moment. If those extreme right candidates that have knocked out their more moderate brethren in the primaries subsequently get trounced in the general election, the GOP will take a much more circumspect approach to choosing their 2012 Presidential candidate and will look for someone who can take a softer line where needed (maybe Romney, although personally I think he's lost his mojo).

If the extreme right-wingers do well, however, it'll be Palin 2012, possibly with Pawlenty as Veep.

[Paul in Qatar]

Possibly one or both of the Pauls.

I am hoping for RuPaul.

[BrainGlutton]

Romney, maybe. Anyone further to the right than that has no hope of winning.

[TriPolar]

Romney, maybe. Anyone further to the right than that has no hope of winning.

I think you're right. Romney looks like a centrist in the current Republican Party. He'll be the most acceptable across the board, seen as a Party man, and not offensive to most, and as a candidate that non-Republicans can vote for.

I doubt Sarah Palin will make a serious run for office. If she were to get nominated somehow, that would make Obama a sure bet to get re-elected.

[BobLibDem]

Romney will get nominated because it's his turn and that's how the GOP does things. Obama will run and win.

Palin will not run because she has no interest whatsoever in learning enough about the issues to talk about them intelligently. Besides, her only interest in life is making Sarah wealthy.

[Ludovic]

Democrats, at this point, are probably hoping Palin will run. I'd be salivating over running actual footage of her chanting "Drill, Baby, Drill!" It's one thing to oppose a policy, another when you have a pre-made propaganda ad handed to you on a platter.

[RTFirefly]

Romney, Palin, and Huckabee will all run for the GOP nomination. Plus probably a half-dozen others.

While BobLibDem is right in that the GOP tends to nominate the candidate whose 'turn' it is, I think there's less clarity as to whose turn it is than just about any time I can recall. Palin's got a good claim as the veep nominee last time around; Huck and Romney do as well, based on their primary showings in 2008.

Obama will not have a serious challenger for the Dem nomination, and will win re-election.

[Doctor Who]

Democrats, at this point, are probably hoping Palin will run. I'd be salivating over running actual footage of her chanting "Drill, Baby, Drill!" It's one thing to oppose a policy, another when you have a pre-made propaganda ad handed to you on a platter.Seconded. She must have seen the BP disaster unfolding on television, thought back to that quote, and said, "Shit."

[Duke]

Romney will get nominated because it's his turn and that's how the GOP does things.

If Romney is nominated it will almost feel like a concession. Romney feels like the Bob Dole of 2012 to me: someone who's been around a while and run unsuccessfully for the nomination in the past, but the bottom line is that while he's someone who can be liked he's not someone to get excited about. Even when he ran in 2008 it seemed as if his chief claim to fame was that he was a relatively safe candidate with enough money to mount a decent campaign. He's just not got enough mojo to beat the incumbent unless Obama really screws up post-nomination. But I don't necessarily see Romney being nominated. The far right doesn't like him, and the more centrist GOP voters don't like him enough to counter that.

I think the best bet for the GOP in 2012 is to look for an under-the-radar candidate with a good record in state government, preferably one who can appeal to moderates. It's their best shot at appealing to anti-incumbent sentiment while still being able to point to experience. That's not to say a candidate like that is going to win, but at least defeat isn't going to deprive the GOP of a big shot, and despite what I said about "appealing to anti-incumbent sentiment", it's still darn difficult to beat an incumbent president...it's only happened once since 1980.

Frankly I don't think any of the names mentioned in this thread are going to be there in 2012. Romney I mentioned above. Palin is losing support by the day and could torpedo herself at any moment. Ron Paul is too old to run again, Rand Paul might not even win the KY Senate race, which would be a massive blow to the GOP and will run him out of politics on a rail. Jim DeMint...*shrug*...maybe if the right-wing rallies around him. I can't help but recall he actually lost his SC GOP primary by 18 points, was saved in a runoff election, then couldn't even win a very solid GOP state by double-digits in the general election.

[Marley23]

Romney, Palin, and Huckabee will all run for the GOP nomination. Plus probably a half-dozen others.
Huckabee may try but I don't think he's going to be in it for very long. And unfortunately last I saw it looked like he'd regained a bunch of weight. That's a serious problem for him. Whether he runs or not I hope he can deal with it.

Seconded. She must have seen the BP disaster unfolding on television, thought back to that quote, and said, "Shit."
Maybe. But Obama's earlier support for offshore drilling may limit his ability to attack her (or anyone) on that issue. We'll see what he does in the wake of the leak.

[RTFirefly]

Huckabee may try but I don't think he's going to be in it for very long. That part, I'll agree with. He played his hand badly in 2008, wasting time and money on NH, where he should have known he never had a prayer, after winning Iowa. (IMHO, he should have essentially skipped NH and gone straight to MI or SC, stealing a march on his rivals in one of those states.) I don't think he's gotten any smarter since then. But he'll still run.

[ElvisL1ves]

The more people got to know Romney the last time, the lower his support got. And he's done nothing since to change that, or to add to his thin resume. He may get it because somebody has to, but not with any real enthusiasm behind it.

I don't see any potential winners on that side, only survivors. But it's early yet.

[Skammer]

In addition to Huckabee, Romney, Paul and Palin, I see Gingrich in the primaries as well. Then possibly Jindal or Pawlenty. I think you might see 7-8 candidates running in Iowa/NH, before they start dropping out.

As to who will get the nomination -- it's a crapshoot. I would rule out Palin and Gingrich and probably Huckabee. Romney and Paul, possibly, if Paul doesn't say or do anything stupid. The others are not yet well known enough to get a good gauge on.

Edited to add: for the Democrats, Obama will re-run and probably win. If (heaven forbid) he is incapacitated before the election, you might see Biden run for re-election against Hillary. If Obama serves out his term but elects not to run, you might get a couple of other Dem hopefuls in addition to Hillary but she'll have the clear advantage.

[Phlosphr]

As a salivating Democrat hoping Palin runs again, Romney will certainly run but I can't discount a favorable pull by Jindahl or one of the Pauls. I will jump for joy if Palin runs again, she makes a mockery of the GOP by simply having no poolitical acumen aside from Drill Baby Drill! And the Conservative Right Loves her for it - if this current spill gets any worse - which it looks like it will, she'll be eating her words even more than Obama's early support for OSD.

[Marley23]

In addition to Huckabee, Romney, Paul and Palin, I see Gingrich in the primaries as well. Then possibly Jindal or Pawlenty. I think you might see 7-8 candidates running in Iowa/NH, before they start dropping out.
Just for the record, in the last few non-incumbent GOP primaries, there were seven (2008), six (2000, and eight (1996) candidates in the Iowa caucuses. And there are always a couple of candidates who can't raise enough money to even make it that far.

[Diogenes the Cynic]

I don't think Palin will run. She doesn't have the intellect, the belly or the skin for it. She'll never come out of her protective little conservative media cocoon and fight a fair fight. Even in the Republican Primaries, she would have to face opposition and criticism. Those guys like Romney and Gingrich and Huckabee are not just going to give her a free ride (though Pawlenty might, he's an obsequious little bastard), and even if she won the nomination, she'd be trounced in the general. Obama is still the most popular politician in the country, and Palin is one of the most (if not THE most) unpopular.

Gingrich looks to me like he wants to run. He's got a huge ego, and he probably thinks he can get the teabaggers while maintaining some credibility as a national candidate because of his legit background as a former Speaker.

On a charismatic level, he's a plane crash, though. Charmless, reptillian, amoral in his personal life. Three marriages, lots of adultery, cheating on, then serving divorce papers to one of his wives while she was in the hospital with cancer. Cheating on his next wife at exactly the same time he was calling on Clinton to resign for getting a blowjob.

His public life has not been much better. After the so-called "Republican Revolution" of 2004, Clinton totally pwned him during the government shutdown -- just pulled down his pants and spanked him -- then Gingrich told a bunch of reporters that he'd shut down the government because Clinton had made him sit at the back of Air Force 1, and the Republican Revolution was dead in the water after that. Gingrich's unpopularity became an increasing political liability to his party. He became the first Speaker ever sanctioned for ethics violations, his approval ratings tanked, and his own party started gunning for his seat. He survived one House coup attempt, but after the loss of seats in '98, Gingrich resigned both the Speakership and his own seat in the House (basically, he was too much of a baby to be able to tolerate going back to just being a member under somebody else's leadership).

The guy would be a dream for the Dems to run against. He's all flaws and no strengths.

I think it will probably be Romney, as the safest, non-crazy choice. The Pubs can't beat Obama with just teabaggers. With the unlimited corporate financing they will now have, they don't even need to pander to the wingnuts for cash. Teabaggers only matter in Republican Primaries. In general elections they are meaningless.

I predict Romney will choose Jeb Bush as his running mate, or possibly (if he can find one) a credible Republican Latino.

[Marley23]

Palin's already run, though. There were parts of it she didn't enjoy but she seems like the type who would do it again, either to prove to her enemies that she can do it, or because she's become convinced that 'real Americans' love her.

[jsgoddess]

I predict Romney will choose Jeb Bush as his running mate, or possibly (if he can find one) a credible Republican Latino.

I think he'd do better to find a good female running mate. One who shows up all the flaws in Palin.

[Duke]

I predict Romney will choose Jeb Bush as his running mate, or possibly (if he can find one) a credible Republican Latino.

I don't think Romney would make the mistake of picking Jeb Bush as a VP candidate. The GOP can only win the election by converting Obama voters, and putting W's brother on the ticket is just not going to do that.

[Captain Amazing]

I predict Romney will choose Jeb Bush as his running mate, or possibly (if he can find one) a credible Republican Latino.

Rubio, maybe, assuming he wins the Senate seat?

[jayjay]

I don't think you can really predict, this early, who's going to be running (aside from Obama, of course). I highly doubt Obama will get a serious primary opponent...you'll maybe get a couple of publicity runs, far left icons who will try to point up Obama's centrism and corporate ties, but they won't even get to Iowa.

As far as Republicans, I'm not making any predictions until I see who flies to Iowa or New Hampshire in October 2011 to lay their groundwork ("retail politics", as it's called...visiting farmers, eating lunch at diners, kissing hands, shaking babies, etc.).

[Bryan Ekers]

If Palin runs, it'll just be to publicize her latest ghost-written book.

[Ogre]

I figured the Repubs would be tempted to trot out Bobby Jindal, as a viable minority candidate.

[BrainGlutton]

I figured the Repubs would be tempted to trot out Bobby Jindal, as a viable minority candidate.

He's also an exorcist and faith-healer. (http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/bobby_jindals_dance_with_the_d.php) Even many religious conservatives would look askance at such claims.

[Skammer]

I mostly agree with Diogenes -- I think Palin will be a tease, string out her fans, but ultimately not decide to run for whatever self-serving purpose (and blame it on the media). Then she'll go back to her book royalties and Fox News paycheck.

[Little Nemo]

I think it'll be Romney if Obama is looking vulnerable. He's the establishment candidate.

But as such, Romney won't want to waste his chance in a losing campaign. If he thinks Obama is going to be re-elected, he might risk defering his "turn" until 2016.

This could backfire. Bush was seen as unbeatable for 1992 and the big names for the Democrats decided to wait until 1996. This left an opening for Clinton to step into.

[Marley23]

This could backfire. Bush was seen as unbeatable for 1992 and the big names for the Democrats decided to wait until 1996. This left an opening for Clinton to step into.
Which is why Mario Cuomo has been known to get into bed at night, hum the first few bars of "Hail to the Chief," and cry himself to sleep.

[ElvisL1ves]

Fuck him. Cuomo wanted the job, but only if it were going to be handed to him by a grateful public begging him to save them. Not if he had to actually work for it.

He's far from the only pol who's had that problem, but c'mon, he couldn't even decide to accept the Supreme Court nomination Clinton was going to hand him.

[Little Nemo]

Which is why Mario Cuomo has been known to get into bed at night, hum the first few bars of "Hail to the Chief," and cry himself to sleep.There was a Tom Toles cartoon that showed Bill Clinton at his inauguration and in the crowd there was Mario Coumo saying "I'm still thinking it over..."

[BobLibDem]

I think he'd do better to find a good female running mate. One who shows up all the flaws in Palin.

I've got it! The ticket of Romney-Bachmann!

[Skald the Rhymer]

Seconded. She must have seen the BP disaster unfolding on television, thought back to that quote, and said, "Shit."

I doubt it. She does not strike me as being sufficiently self-reflective.

[jayjay]

I doubt it. She does not strike me as being sufficiently self-reflective.

Got it in one! (http://twitter.com/SarahPalinUSA/status/15216694830)

[Chefguy]

Palin will not run because she has no interest whatsoever in learning enough about the issues to talk about them intelligently. Besides, her only interest in life is making Sarah wealthy.

A winnah! She's not about to risk any of her new capital on a campaign. She might be drafted by the Tea Party, and will make a big show of contemplating a run, but in the end will give some version of the same lame "I'm quitting for the good of America" bullshit speech she made when she quit as governor. Running for prez is hard goddamned work and she's not up for it unless there's a paycheck at the end.

[Chronos]

Palin will not run because she has no interest whatsoever in learning enough about the issues to talk about them intelligently. Besides, her only interest in life is making Sarah wealthy. That's not true at all! She's also interested in making Sarah famous.

In the Republican primaries, we'll probably see Palin, one of the Pauls, Huckabee, Gingrich, Romney, Jindall, and Pawlenty, plus maybe a few others. Out of those, I think that Romney is the best chance for the Republicans, and I also think that they'll realize that and he'll get the nomination, but I think there's still the opportunity for Paul (whichever one runs), Huckabee, or some dark-horse governor. Palin will have a very public meltdown and be forced out by the evil media quit before the convention, Gingrich is old news, and if Jindall shows up on the ticket, it'll be as VP, not President.

[Dallas Jones]

A winnah! She's not about to risk any of her new capital on a campaign. She might be drafted by the Tea Party, and will make a big show of contemplating a run, but in the end will give some version of the same lame "I'm quitting for the good of America" bullshit speech she made when she quit as governor. Running for prez is hard goddamned work and she's not up for it unless there's a paycheck at the end.

I agree.

I think Sarah Palin will remain in her newly found role as outside agitator. There is more money in it and less risk. She can say whatever she wants with few consequences.

[foolsguinea]

I am hoping for RuPaul.Can the GOP do better?

[Wesley Clark]

I think someone might try to primary Obama from the left, but I'm not sure who. But something like that could happen to recapture all the energy Obama originally created, but lost from his base.

As far as the GOP, the tea party activists keep electing more right wing candidates than the official GOP party puts out. This is good and bad from a liberal POV because on one hand they are less electable, but if they do win elections they will be even less cooperative and more aggressive (as if the current GOP isn't already).

So the same should happen in the 2012 GOP primary. I assume the field will consist of governors and senators, some of whom are reasonably moderate, but at the end some tea party approved candidate will win.

But for both parties the 2010 primary season seems to be one where the base pushes for more ideological and non-incumbent candidates. I don't know if that'll carry over to 2012 but I assume so.

[foolsguinea]

... if Jindall shows up on the ticket, it'll be as VP, not President.Yeah, if that. Is putting a South Asian Roman Catholic on the ticket worth it to the party?

[BrainGlutton]

Can the GOP do better?

It hasn't since Eisenhower.

[Onomatopoeia]

Got it in one! (http://twitter.com/SarahPalinUSA/status/15216694830)Oh my. She is mind-numbingly stupid.

[Dostoyevsky]

Ron Paul is too old to run again[SNIP]
The latest issue of Time (http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1992201,00.html) disagrees.

All that, and the rise of the son, makes a repeat White House run by the father more likely, no matter his age. Ron Paul has already scored a big win in the first straw poll of the 2012 season, beating the likes of Romney, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin at a gathering of conservatives in February. "It's way too early" to decide, Paul says. "I have no plans, but I have not ruled it out." And why would he? He has already waited a long time — and it appears the country is moving his way.

[Rhythmdvl]

Got it in one! (http://twitter.com/SarahPalinUSA/status/15216694830)

No experience with Twitter here, but I assume that people can choose their own usernames. Is that actually her account, a rabid Palin supporter, or a parody?

[Frank]

... you'll maybe get a couple of publicity runs, far left icons who will try to point up Obama's centrism and corporate ties, but they won't even get to Iowa.

I think someone might try to primary Obama from the left, but I'm not sure who.
Kucinich. If Obama runs in 2012, he'll be nominated. Otherwise, it'll be a tough fight between Biden and Clinton.

I agree that Gingrich will likely run; agree that he won't get anywhere. I agree that Palin will flirt around with it, and won't. If I had to put money on the nomination right this second, I'd put it on Romney. Pawlenty, Jindal, et al, I don't expect to see seriously until 2016.

[jayjay]

No experience with Twitter here, but I assume that people can choose their own usernames. Is that actually her account, a rabid Palin supporter, or a parody?

If you click on her name link on that page, it takes you to the actual Twitter account page and it's a "verified" account, which means that Twitter has determined that it actually is her.

[Lok]

I think you're right. Romney looks like a centrist in the current Republican Party. He'll be the most acceptable across the board, seen as a Party man, and not offensive to most, and as a candidate that non-Republicans can vote for.

I doubt Sarah Palin will make a serious run for office. If she were to get nominated somehow, that would make Obama a sure bet to get re-elected.

The only way I see Romney having a chance is if the Tea Party implodes completely. He has too many problems with the far right of the GOP, who seem to be running things these days. Romneycare, support for homosexual rights until he doesn't, Mormonism, etc. He is just too centrist in the present atmosphere. If he holds off until 2016, and the wingnuts lose power because of election failures, he has a decent chance.

I think someone might try to primary Obama from the left, but I'm not sure who. But something like that could happen to recapture all the energy Obama originally created, but lost from his base.

I agree with Frank below. The only one that could realistically come at Obama from the left in the Democratic party is Kucinich. But while he could get the far left going for him, Obama will have the moderates and more pragmatic liberals. I doubt Kucinich will even try actually. He definitely believes in the liberal values he runs on, but he is willing to compromise on them if needed to make some progress. (His HCR vote would hurt him with the left wingnuts.) While he could try to come at Obama from the left, I think he is too old school about not gunning for a sitting President from his party to do it.

Kucinich. If Obama runs in 2012, he'll be nominated. Otherwise, it'll be a tough fight between Biden and Clinton.

I agree that Gingrich will likely run; agree that he won't get anywhere. I agree that Palin will flirt around with it, and won't. If I had to put money on the nomination right this second, I'd put it on Romney. Pawlenty, Jindal, et al, I don't expect to see seriously until 2016.

The only one that I would like to see get the GOP nomination more than Gingrish is Palin. I think that who gets the nomination will depend entirely upon the outcomes this November. If the Tea Party nominees get trashed, the GOP may start trying to open up their tent more and get back the moderates they have been driving out. That would at least open the possibility for Romney. I don't think he could win the General Election, barring major screwups by Obama, but he would have the best shot.

[Lynn Bodoni]

Oh my. She is mind-numbingly stupid. I keep telling everyone, stupidity is contagious, and even brushing up against it is dangerous. But do they listen to me? Nooooo.

[Cyberhwk]

Gingrich looks to me like he wants to run.
You're not alone (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/gingrich-sounds-amped-to-run.html) in that observation.

[dalej42]

Right now, I'd say the Republican nominee will be Texas governor Rick Perry. He plays well to the Religious right, does well with the Tea Party group, and he could flip some of the Southern swing states that Obama won. Texas' economy is doing better than most states.

[Munch]

The GOP Vice Presidential candidates will boil down to Jindal, Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels.

[Jophiel]

Palin's unfavorables are higher than ever (http://www.pollster.com/USPalinFavr.php) and over 50%. I'd be surprised if she even took the risk of running and failing in the primaries versus her current cushy gigs.

[Merijeek]

The GOP Vice Presidential candidates will boil down to Jindal, Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels.

Jindal: They already tried the pandering token (Palin) and it still didn't save their campaign. Not gonna happen. It not only didn't save their campaign, they now have a raving lunatic with far more influence on their party than they could have ever anticipated.

Still, her looks should be gone in 10 years, tops, and then nobody will listen to her.

-Joe

[Little Nemo]

Democrats, at this point, are probably hoping Palin will run. I'd be salivating over running actual footage of her chanting "Drill, Baby, Drill!" It's one thing to oppose a policy, another when you have a pre-made propaganda ad handed to you on a platter."How's that drilly-spilly thing working out for ya?"

[septimus]

There is a gambling site (http://www.intrade.com/) were you can bet on 2012 election. This market currently thinks Sarah Palin is 19% to be the nominee. (That seems ridiculously high, unless GOP decides election is lost anyway and goes for Palin as some kind of Machiavellian ploy.)

From Intrade's home page, I clicked "Most Traded Political" to get to the Palin quote. Others can be found via search, but I only did two:
Romney is 25%; Clinton for Demo is (bid 5%; ask 9%).

Another site (http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/) has 2010 election contracts up, but it appears no 2012 yet.

[Yaxche]

And I agree, we have to see the tea party ridiculousness fail over the next 2 years, because he's not 'conservative' enough, then I'd like to float another Mormon out there...

Jon Huntsman, Jr. Insanely popular as Utah governor, very centrist, and now serving as ambassador to China in Obama's administration. I'm close to a card carrying pinko, and I voted for him in the Utah governor election.

He's like-able and centrist, like Clinton without the sleaziness, and has a good business acumen (unlike Bush II). His time in China cannot hurt from a foreign policy standpoint.

He got the nomination in Utah, which is really conservative, and won the governors election by a landslide. Not a huge feat, because Republicans pretty much punch their own ticket into office around here, but he had a lot of crossover appeal, too.

Very winnable in the general election, the trick would be winning his own parties primaries.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Jindal: They already tried the pandering token (Palin) and it still didn't save their campaign. Not gonna happen. It not only didn't save their campaign, they now have a raving lunatic with far more influence on their party than they could have ever anticipated.
Jindal's not a pandering candidate. The Indian-American community is relatively tiny, votes overwhelmingly for Democrats, and won't vote for Jindal because he's Catholic (and as such seen as as panderer himself) anyway.

Token, maybe- but he's also got a track record of high achievement. He just happens to be batshit insane.

[Drum God]

Right now, I'd say the Republican nominee will be Texas governor Rick Perry. He plays well to the Religious right, does well with the Tea Party group, and he could flip some of the Southern swing states that Obama won. Texas' economy is doing better than most states.

This idea scares the crap out of me. Perry is crooked as a country road, when he can be bothered to do any damn thing at all. He is, however, excellent at padding his friends' bank accounts. If he doesn't think much of you, you are screwed.

I don't see Perry being a viable candidate. I don't think the country is ready to elect another Texas governor. This guy, by the way, has been governor since Bush resigned.

[Squink]

Has the kid outta nowhere appeared yet?
It'll take a fresh face, a political neophyte taking the GOP by storm, to unseat Obama.
I've just not seen any sign of such a phenom, and 2008 retreads, failed Speakers, or Gov's who've been semi-candidates for years aren't going to cut the mustard come 2012. There simply aren't enough GOPers left to elect a president without seriously energizing the independents.

[Chronos]

Are there any states Obama won with Republican governors? Or at least, any who wouldn't require a constitutional amendment to be eligible?

And I don't think Kucinich would challenge Obama. True, he does enjoy tilting at windmills, but he's still smart enough to see when a windmill is on his side.

[Ludovic]

I've just not seen any sign of such a phenom, and 2008 retreads

I guarantee you there will be plenty of --- OHHHH, you said RETREADS. Nevermind.

[Munch]

Has the kid outta nowhere appeared yet?
It'll take a fresh face, a political neophyte taking the GOP by storm, to unseat Obama.
I've just not seen any sign of such a phenom, and 2008 retreads, failed Speakers, or Gov's who've been semi-candidates for years aren't going to cut the mustard come 2012. There simply aren't enough GOPers left to elect a president without seriously energizing the independents.

Not necessarily a neophyte, but certainly a smart politician who can talk a fresh game - Mike Pence (IN). (Sorry to keep bringing up Hoosiers.) He has GOP leadership experience and has been talking quite a bit with the tea partiers.

[Lynn Bodoni]

This idea scares the crap out of me. Perry is crooked as a country road, when he can be bothered to do any damn thing at all. He is, however, excellent at padding his friends' bank accounts. If he doesn't think much of you, you are screwed.

I don't see Perry being a viable candidate. I don't think the country is ready to elect another Texas governor. This guy, by the way, has been governor since Bush resigned. Heh, I see you're a Texan too. Perry is VERY popular with a certain group of people, and he does tend to reward his friends. Personally, I don't see why he's so very popular, as I think that he's grossly incompetent and not too bright.

[Drum God]

Heh, I see you're a Texan too. Perry is VERY popular with a certain group of people, and he does tend to reward his friends. Personally, I don't see why he's so very popular, as I think that he's grossly incompetent and not too bright.

I've never understood why he is so popular, either. All I can figure is that he's good looking on TV. There was even a column in the American-Statesman the other day about how Perry looks good in a cowboy hat while Bill White looks dorky. I can see why he is popular with the people he rewards. If I got to dip into the public trough like his cronies can, I might like him better. As it is, he has zero respect for my profession (teacher) and industry (public education), so I get nothing from him. Amazingly, there are even teachers who think he's great. Boggles the mind.

Is his $10000/month rental mansion getting much play up in the Metroplex. It's a bit of an issue down here, but can't get any traction for some reason.

[Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor]

Gingrich has too much undisclosed baggage drifting around to win anything, especially meaning sex scandals.

[Ludovic]

Gingrich has too much undisclosed baggage drifting around to win anything, especially meaning sex scandals.At least he never had anyone carry his baggage. That ought to play a bit better with the hyper-traditional moral crowd.

[Bryan Ekers]

Indeed. Never get caught with a dead girl or a live baggage-handler.

[foolsguinea]

Right now, I'd say the Republican nominee will be Texas governor Rick Perry. He plays well to the Religious right, does well with the Tea Party group, and he could flip some of the Southern swing states that Obama won. Texas' economy is doing better than most states.He has substantially the same accent & almost precisely the same default vocal pitch as W Bush. Anyone outside the Southwest may find that too eerie.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnD1ZOT2a1w

[Onomatopoeia]

He has substantially the same accent & almost precisely the same default vocal pitch as W Bush. Anyone outside the Southwest may find that too eerie.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnD1ZOT2a1wI don't really hear it.

[jsc1953]

Got it in one! (http://twitter.com/SarahPalinUSA/status/15216694830)

Charles Krauthammer had a column with the same theme: we can blame environmentalists for the Gulf spill, because they won't let the poor ol' oil companies drill anywhere else.

So Palin isn't originally wacko; she borrows wacko.

[Lok]

Heh, I see you're a Texan too. Perry is VERY popular with a certain group of people, and he does tend to reward his friends. Personally, I don't see why he's so very popular, as I think that he's grossly incompetent and not too bright.

Why is it that you only need to change the name in the second sentence and you describe the last governor of Texas as well?

[descamisado]

Palin will probably run, if she isn't distracted by something shiny.I thought she was the something shiny.

[Marley23]

Are there any states Obama won with Republican governors?
That's an interesting question. [Note to self: bug Nate Silver to post here.] Circa 2008, I think the answers are California, Florida, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Nevada, Connecticut, and Minnesota. To get up to date, you'd have to take out Florida and add Virginia and New Jersey.

Like you said, the governor of California is... well, I'll translate it into his language:


[puts on shades and leather jacket, pulls out gun]
You ah INELAJABUL!


The governor of Minnesota is Tim Pawlenty, who was McCain's second choice for VP. Most of the others are newbs or probably have very limited appeal. I think we can all agree that Crist, who is leaving office anyway, is not going to be the guy.

For whatever it's worth I think Kucinich's presidential days are over. He didn't run in 2008 because someone ran a semi-challenging campaign against him that year saying he was not representing his district adequately because he was spending all his time mounting futile campaigns for president.

[Lok]

[Note to self: bug Nate Silver to post here.]

Yeah, sure, that will happen. Finishing his book, setting up the new deal with the NY Times, and oh yeah, keeping up posting on his own blog. I am positive he will have lots of spare time to hang around over here. :p

[Marley23]

Yeah, sure, that will happen. Finishing his book, setting up the new deal with the NY Times, and oh yeah, keeping up posting on his own blog. I am positive he will have lots of spare time to hang around over here. :p
Hey, when I bug people I really bug people.

[Drum God]

Perry said on TV earlier this evening that he was not going to run for president nor would he accept the nomination.

Yeah, right. Maybe if he ran for president, people would poke around Texas more and expose his misdeeds as governor. Better to run for governor again and keep lining his and his friend's pockets for as long as possible.

[Really Not All That Bright]

That's an interesting question. [Note to self: bug Nate Silver to post here.] Circa 2008, I think the answers are California, Florida, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Nevada, Connecticut, and Minnesota. To get up to date, you'd have to take out Florida and add Virginia and New Jersey.
Crist is still a Republican. He's just not the Republican nominee for Senator.

[Lynn Bodoni]

Why is it that you only need to change the name in the second sentence and you describe the last governor of Texas as well? He's a stereotype, and the two of them (Bush II and Perry) are very appealing to a certain demographic.

Is his $10000/month rental mansion getting much play up in the Metroplex. It gets SOME coverage, but not nearly as much as I'd like to see.

[jayjay]

Like you said, the governor of California is... well, I'll translate it into his language:


[puts on shades and leather jacket, pulls out gun]
You ah INELAJABUL!



"It's just a rumah!"

[Marley23]

Crist is still a Republican. He's just not the Republican nominee for Senator.
But there's no way he'd be on the Republican ticket as president or VP. He's pissed off too many people.

[waterj2]

That's an interesting question. [Note to self: bug Nate Silver to post here.] Circa 2008, I think the answers are California, Florida, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Nevada, Connecticut, and Minnesota. To get up to date, you'd have to take out Florida and add Virginia and New Jersey.Scratch New Hampshire. Democrat John Lynch has been governor since 2006.

Also, you can add Arizona to the ones that have subsequently flipped. Not that I see Jan Brewer as a conceivable GOP Presidential candidate.

[Leaper]

Are there any states Obama won with Republican governors? Or at least, any who wouldn't require a constitutional amendment to be eligible?

Uh, unless I'm completely misreading this question, Hawaii (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linda_Lingle)?!? :)

[Darth Sensitive]

Right now, I'd say the Republican nominee will be Texas governor Rick Perry. He plays well to the Religious right, does well with the Tea Party group, and he could flip some of the Southern swing states that Obama won. Texas' economy is doing better than most states.

If this happens, I'll be the happiest man in the world when he's nominated, then so incredibly pissed if he wins. Fuck Governor Good Hair with a red hot porcupine. Sideways.

[Marley23]

Scratch New Hampshire. Democrat John Lynch has been governor since 2006.

Also, you can add Arizona to the ones that have subsequently flipped. Not that I see Jan Brewer as a conceivable GOP Presidential candidate.
That should've been Vermont, not New Hampshire. Jim Douglas is a Republican. We were up there about a year and a half ago and heard campaign commercials for and against him every five minutes. Looks like he's not running for re-election this year. Arizona didn't go for Obama. It's McCain's home state. Hawaii should have been on the list, though. So

And somehow I don't think The Hair is going to be a candidate. I think it's going to be a while before people would think about voting for another governor of Texas.

[Chronos]

For whatever it's worth I think Kucinich's presidential days are over. He didn't run in 2008 because someone ran a semi-challenging campaign against him that year saying he was not representing his district adequately because he was spending all his time mounting futile campaigns for president. He did run in 2008; he just didn't stay in the race for very long. And there was certainly some grumbling on the ground in his district (that's where my family is) that the Presidential race was taking time away from his duties, but I have no idea how big a factor that was in his decision to withdraw.

On the governors question, the real reason for the question is, of course, that the Republicans would have to flip several of the states Obama won, and running a local might be one way to do that. But from what I hear, Pawlenty's popularity in his state is pretty low, compared to other governors, and no matter what they do, I don't think the Republicans have any hope or expectation of flipping Hawaii. What can we say about the others on that list? Do any of them look like good prospects?

[DWMarch]

I believe elections sometimes teeter on the shallowest of reasons therefore I don't believe Kucinich has any chance.

First of all he is ugly as sin. Presidents have to be somewhat dashing and handsome, two words that don't belong anywhere near the name Kucinich. This is not a judgment of his character. I'm sure he's a great guy... who bears an unfortunate resemblance to a half-melted Cabbage Patch Doll.

Second, his name. It doesn't roll off the tongue. Barack Obama is a great name, even if it's not the most common name in the world. It sounds strong. Ba-ROCK Oh-BOMB-ah! That's a name with some strength to it! Kucinich? Kook-in-itch? Sounds like what happens when you accidentally drop tobasco sauce in your shorts.

These same criteria apply to any Republican candidates. Looks matter. See Sarah Palin's naughty librarian look for example. It got her a long way until she opened her mouth. Names matter as well. It should be easy to remember, easy to spell and it should sound good when preceded by the word President. President Jindal? I doubt it. President Pawlenty? You've got to be joking.

[Marley23]

I believe elections sometimes teeter on the shallowest of reasons therefore I don't believe Kucinich has any chance.
Forget the shallow reasons. Most of the voting public does not agree with his political positions. Maybe he's right about everything, but he gets support from a small minority of Democrats on most subjects, and approximately zero percent of Republicans. Even if he were a handsome guy with a nice name, that would be kind of a problem.

[Munch]

That's an interesting question. [Note to self: bug Nate Silver to post here.] Circa 2008, I think the answers are California, Florida, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Nevada, Connecticut, and Minnesota. To get up to date, you'd have to take out Florida and add Virginia and New Jersey.Scratch New Hampshire. Democrat John Lynch has been governor since 2006.

Also, you can add Arizona to the ones that have subsequently flipped. Not that I see Jan Brewer as a conceivable GOP Presidential candidate.

And add Indiana. (Seriously, I'm only good for one thing around here...)

Oh - and sorta add Nebraska. Republican Governor, and Omaha's electoral district went to Obama.

[pkbites]

I've observed that the Republicans tend to pick the person who's turn it is, the person who's next in line. Sometimes this works (Reagan, George H.W. Bush) sometimes it doesn't (Dole, McCain). Obama will, IMHO, be very beatable in 2012, but I think going with the old strategy of the next in line will not work. I don't see Palin or Romney winning. Someone outside of the last batch of candidates needs to surface in '12.

I think Paul Ryan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ryan_%28politician%29) is gradually setting himself up to be that person.

[pkbites]

I think Paul Ryan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ryan_%28politician%29) is gradually setting himself up to be that person.

Missed the edit window.

Ryan says he's not going to run, but let's see what happens in 2 years. I can at very least see him on a ticket as VP.

And then there's Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana, but what are his stances on some major issues?

[Really Not All That Bright]

The guy who introduced a bill to eliminate Medicare (Ryan)? Not on your life.

[Munch]

I've observed that the Republicans tend to pick the person who's turn it is, the person who's next in line.
I don't think McCain was selected because "it was his turn". He benefited by not being as polarizing or inexperienced as Romney or Huckabee, and slipped through the primaries by standing in the middle of the circular firing squad and having the other nominees knock each other out.
And then there's Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana, but what are his stances on some major issues?
He'll toe the party line on most stuff, and focus on his economic strengths and CEO background. He'll get labelled a W. Bush man, opponents will point to his Iraq War estimate of $50-60 billion, snide "off the record" jokes will be made about his Kucinichesque height and he'll be relegated to a VP consideration.

[Onomatopoeia]

Second, his name. It doesn't roll off the tongue. Barack Obama is a great name, even if it's not the most common name in the world. It sounds strong. Ba-ROCK Oh-BOMB-ah! That's a name with some strength to it! Kucinich? Kook-in-itch? Sounds like what happens when you accidentally drop tobasco sauce in your shorts.It's pronounced Coo-SIN-itch. And his smoking hot wife makes him seem a little less ugly somehow.

[Onomatopoeia]

...Obama will, IMHO, be very beatable in 2012, <snip>I know it's just your opinion, but on what do you base it?

[Squink]

Ryan says he's not going to run, but let's see what happens in 2 years. I can at very least see him on a ticket as VP.He and Russ Feingold should explore a joint run. If they won it'd make Joseph A. Craig High School (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_A._Craig_High_School) the most influential high school in the free world, and that'd be good news for Janesville (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janesville,_Wisconsin) at least.

[Munch]

He and Russ Feingold should explore a joint run. If they won it'd make Joseph A. Craig High School (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_A._Craig_High_School) the most influential high school in the free world, and that'd be good news for Janesville (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janesville,_Wisconsin) at least.

Who would move out of the state to do so? You can't have two people from the same state on the ticket. (Oddly, I've dated two people from Janesville, and a friend married a guy from there.)

[Marley23]

It's pronounced Coo-SIN-itch. And his smoking hot wife makes him seem a little less ugly somehow.
It's terrific if people think Obama's name is now some kind of advantage. Two years ago people thought his name alone might be enough to keep him from getting nominated or winning. "It rhymes with Iraq Osama!- AND DO YOU KNOW WHAT HIS MIDDLE NAME IS?" Some people even thought this was a semi-legit political issue instead of an excercise in total moronism.

Who would move out of the state to do so? You can't have two people from the same state on the ticket. (Oddly, I've dated two people from Janesville, and a friend married a guy from there.)
You can have two people from the same state on the same ticket. The ticket would be ineligible for the electoral votes of that state. Anyway establishing residence is trivially easy. Ask Dick Cheney, Hillary Clinton, Alan Keyes...

[Really Not All That Bright]

You can have two people from the same state on the same ticket. The ticket would be ineligible for the electoral votes of that state.
Um... really?

[Marley23]

Um... really?
Yup. (http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/2004ecqa.shtml)

There is one constitutionally binding rule: an elector cannot vote for a presidential candidate and a vice presidential candidate if they are both residents of the same state as the elector. At least one of the two candidates must be from a state different from the elector.

This was an issue in 2000 because Bush and Cheney both lived in Texas at the time the campaign began. Cheney also had a house in Wyoming, where he was a former Congressman. He changed his voting registration to Wyoming in July 2000, and sold his house in Dallas after the election. Cite here. (http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1129&dat=20001122&id=cegNAAAAIBAJ&sjid=gG8DAAAAIBAJ&pg=3707,377467)

[Really Not All That Bright]

Couldn't they just vote for another VP candidate?

[Marley23]

Couldn't they just vote for another VP candidate?
As long as that VP candidate is from a different state, sure. That's not a desirable outcome for the ticket, though.

[Squink]

Couldn't they just vote for another VP candidate?It wouldn't be much trouble for Ryan to move to South Beloit next summer. He could claim it was to be near the old family farmstead or something.

[RTFirefly]

Yup. (http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/2004ecqa.shtml)

This was an issue in 2000 because Bush and Cheney both lived in Texas at the time the campaign began. Cheney also had a house in Wyoming, where he was a former Congressman. He changed his voting registration to Wyoming in July 2000, and sold his house in Dallas after the election. Cite here. (http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1129&dat=20001122&id=cegNAAAAIBAJ&sjid=gG8DAAAAIBAJ&pg=3707,377467)Would've been kinda funny if they hadn't done anything about this, and Bush had won but Cheney had lost as a result. I'm no fan of Lieberman, but a sanctimonious and annoying veep during those years would have been a hell of an improvement over pure evil.

[RTFirefly]

I've observed that the Republicans tend to pick the person who's turn it is, the person who's next in line. Sometimes this works (Reagan, George H.W. Bush) sometimes it doesn't (Dole, McCain). Obama will, IMHO, be very beatable in 2012, but I think going with the old strategy of the next in line will not work. I don't see Palin or Romney winning. Someone outside of the last batch of candidates needs to surface in '12. Yeah, the biggest problem for the GOP in 2012 is that they'll have to field an actual candidate. Apparently Obama's polling only so-so against "generic Republican" but none of the actual Republicans who are in the game are giving him a run for his money in the polls.

But I suspect that any dark-horse Republican capable of winning the GOP nomination will have just as much of a problem as the current crop of known commodities. The positions you have to take these days to win a contested GOP nomination really hurt you with people outside the GOP base.

[middleman]

Seconded. She must have seen the BP disaster unfolding on television, thought back to that quote, and said, "Shit."

I don't think they talked about the oil spill on NickJr.

I don't think you can really predict, this early, who's going to be running (aside from Obama, of course). I highly doubt Obama will get a serious primary opponent...you'll maybe get a couple of publicity runs, far left icons who will try to point up Obama's centrism and corporate ties, but they won't even get to Iowa.
.

I think even if a lefty like Kucinch runs against him, Obama will not debate him or even acknowledge his candidacy.

Right now, I'd say the Republican nominee will be Texas governor Rick Perry. He plays well to the Religious right, does well with the Tea Party group, and he could flip some of the Southern swing states that Obama won. Texas' economy is doing better than most states.

I'm in central Texas as well, and his successes baffle me.

Heh, I see you're a Texan too. Perry is VERY popular with a certain group of people, and he does tend to reward his friends. Personally, I don't see why he's so very popular, as I think that he's grossly incompetent and not too bright.
I've never understood why he is so popular, either. All I can figure is that he's good looking on TV.

The man has fantastic hair.


Is his $10000/month rental mansion getting much play up in the Metroplex. It's a bit of an issue down here, but can't get any traction for some reason.

I despise Perry and his ilk, but this item did not bother me. While I'm sure right-wing radio would be eating it up if it were a DEM (so there is a hypocrisy angle), it does not offend me that the state's GOVERNOR is spending 10G a month on housing (for those not in the know, someone torched the governor's mansion). The state's chief executive should live in a mansion. Though it doesn't keep him safe from coyotes apparently.

Perry said on TV earlier this evening that he was not going to run for president nor would he accept the nomination.


This has all been part of his teabag strategy. He torched KBH in the primaries by bashing Washington. He cannot be seen as any way affiliated with DC until after he beats Bill White (poor Bill White. Finally a viable Democratic candidate for governor and it is in a year that the GOP has an ungodly advantage!)

[Captain Amazing]

Apparently Obama's polling only so-so against "generic Republican" but none of the actual Republicans who are in the game are giving him a run for his money in the polls.

They need to nominate the generic Republican then.

[Chronos]

OK, pkbites, I'll bite: What is it about this Ryan fellow that makes him a promising candidate? I hadn't really heard anything about him before now, and House of Representatives straight to President is a pretty big jump.

[Captain Lance Murdoch]

Romney, Paul and Pawlenty are already running. Gingrich looks very probable to jump in. A few months ago I would have said that Palin was out, but she seems to be buying into her own personality cult and I think she will run as well. Huckabee’s chances died with those police officers out west so I think he will just stay on Fox. The others mentioned are long shots to jump in.
Unless you are very rich and famous you can’t just jump in whenever you feel like it in these things. The campaign really starts as soon as the last one ends.
I’ll make no bones about it. I think Pawlenty is going to win the nomination.
He can appeal to the tea party (he hates taxes, rejects compromise, praised Arizona’s immigrant law, trased HCR and refers to the “tyranny” of Obama), the Christian conservatives (he’s against abortion and gay rights, for the death penalty and was a huge supporter of the Iraq war) and the country club facets (he has strong ties to the business community and the party establishment) of the party. No one else will be able to cover all those bases so well. Romney has zero appeal to the tea baggers and the xtians. Paul is a perennial candidate who will be 77 years old in 2012. Gingrich is way past his day in the sun, plus he converted to Catholicism when he married wife number X. Palin is devise and widely hated within the party.
Pawlenty is going to win this thing. He has been working hard in the early primary states getting organized and established. He has set up a PAC that has drawn the support of numerous big dollar contributors and he has assembled a Republican all-star team around him.
Iowa kicks off the process where loads of corn farmers will be picking their choice. Pawlenty should make an impact there. I like his chances even better NH where Palin would fare badly. Then onto SC where a Yankee like T-Paw would traditionally get clobbered, but Pawlenty is a Baptist and will likely be the only one on the ballot. He should hang in there.

The biggest diss I hear about him is that he can’t beat Obama in his home state. Probably not, but will Romney beat him in MA? And Republicans will win in AK, GA and TX no matter who the candidate is. Pawlenty is not well known now, but I fully expect him to take the nomination.

[pkbites]

OK, pkbites, I'll bite: What is it about this Ryan fellow that makes him a promising candidate? I hadn't really heard anything about him before now, and House of Representatives straight to President is a pretty big jump.

Obama went from a community organizer to President in only a couple of jumps, so it's not so far fetched for Ryan to do it.

Even if Ryan is not on the ticket As POTUS or VP in 2012, keep your eyes open for him. He's young, attractive, conservative, and is emerging as the ideological leader of the Republican party.

[Really Not All That Bright]

The biggest diss I hear about him is that he can’t beat Obama in his home state. Probably not, but will Romney beat him in MA? And Republicans will win in AK, GA and TX no matter who the candidate is. Pawlenty is not well known now, but I fully expect him to take the nomination.
I'm not sure he can even beat the other Republican candidates in his home state.
Among voters in Minnesota in May 2008, Pawlenty had a 53% approval rating as Minnesota governor, with 46% disapproving. In the same poll, 61% of Minnesotans thought he shouldn't run for president. In April 2009, 46% approved of Pawlenty, while 40% disapproved.

Among registered Republicans nationwide in July 2009, 38% had a favorable view of him while 33% didn't (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Pawlenty#Approval_ratings)

[middleman]

Obama went from a community organizer to President in only a couple of jumps, so it's not so far fetched for Ryan to do it.

Even if Ryan is not on the ticket As POTUS or VP in 2012, keep your eyes open for him. He's young, attractive, conservative, and is emerging as the ideological leader of the Republican party.

That one person can do in US history does not prove that it is anything but far fetched.

I'm not sure he can even beat the other Republican candidates in his home state.


But those poor numbers mean he'd likely win their primary. The roughly 40% who want him to run are all likely GOP primary voters.

[Frank]

Would've been kinda funny if they hadn't done anything about this, and Bush had won but Cheney had lost as a result.
As if the 2000 election wasn't interesting enough!

Had the electoral college members from Texas been forced to vote for Joe Schmoe for Vice-President, that election would have gone to the new Senate (50-50) with the outgoing Vice-President (Al Gore) as the tie-breaker.

One would assume that Lieberman would have voted for himself. I wonder if any Democrats would have voted for Cheney out of some sort of sense of nobility or something.

[Frank]

He's young, attractive, conservative, and is emerging as the ideological leader of the Republican party.
In other words, he's the next Newt Gingrich?

[Qin Shi Huangdi]

Democrats: Barack Obama, Dennis Kucinich (Nominee: Barack Obama)
Republicans: Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee (Nominee: Mitt Romney)

[Really Not All That Bright]

In other words, he's the next Newt Gingrich?
Helen Keller doesn't think Newt Gingrich is good looking.
Democrats: Barack Obama, Dennis Kucinich (Nominee: Barack Obama)
Republicans: Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee (Nominee: Mitt Romney)
Did Clinton actually have to contest a primary for the nomination for his second term?

[Digital Stimulus]

I see no one has yet mentioned Gary Johnson (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_E._Johnson). Minor rumblings only, but there have been rumblings...

[Uncle Goat]

In a bold move, the GOP will throw it's support behind General David Petraeus. The media will fall over themselves thinking of ways to praise him and his glorious victories in Iraq and Afghanistan. Obama and the Dems will look like traitors if they even look at him wrong and will decide not to run against him at all.

Petraeus is swept into office, marshal law is declared, and as predicted, the establishment of a military dictatorship in the US is greeted in the Congress with a standing ovation.

The US citizens will shrug and tune in to watch America's Fattest Celebrity Dancers, a special benefit fund raiser to help millionaires who had their beaches spoiled by the BP gulf spill.

Not that I'm bitter.

[ElvisL1ves]

I see no one has yet mentioned Gary Johnson (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_E._Johnson). Minor rumblings only, but there have been rumblings...Wouldn't it be great to see the GOP nominate a guy on a legalize-drugs platform? The libertarians would have to support him, at least.

[Trepa Mayfield]

Petraeus is swept into office, marshal law is declared...

Say what you will about that Marshall guy, but he had a great plan for Europe.

[foolsguinea]

I think Paul Ryan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ryan_%28politician%29) is gradually setting himself up to be that person.Midwesterner pol named *a** Ryan? I always think of Jeri Ryan's scuzzy ex Jack Ryan, & I'm probably not the only one. Not as bad as being named Keating or McVeigh, but exploitable.

[jayjay]

Midwesterner pol named *a** Ryan? I always think of Jeri Ryan's scuzzy ex Jack Ryan, & I'm probably not the only one. Not as bad as being named Keating or McVeigh, but exploitable.

Or former Illinois governor George Ryan (aka Federal Inmate Number 16627-424).

(What IS it with Illinois governors, anyway? Democratic AND Republican...it's like the prerequisite for even running for the position is a crooked soul.)

[Skammer]

Huckabee is campaigning already - I got an automated campaign "poll" from him two nights ago.

[Squink]

Huckabee is campaigning already Cool, I was concerned he might drop out this time around.

[Skammer]

Cool, I was concerned he might drop out this time around. He still might, I guess, but he's at least testing the waters.

The poll was about whether or not I was pro-life and how I felt about the new healthcare bill "using your taxpayer money to pay for abortions."

[Really Not All That Bright]

Huckabee is campaigning already - I got an automated campaign "poll" from him two nights ago.
Did you tell his autodialler that "Oval Office" is not supposed to be a reference to the occupant of the office?

[Skammer]

I told his autodialer that I didn't agree with the premise of his question, but I don't think my vote got recorded correctly.

[Tom Scud]

In a bold move, the GOP will throw it's support behind General David Petraeus.

Too late for Petraeus in '12, I think. If he was shooting for that, he'd have manufactured a dramatic resignation-in-protest by now.

Though speaking of Generals, what's going on with the "My God is bigger than his God" general?

[jayjay]

He still might, I guess, but he's at least testing the waters.

The poll was about whether or not I was pro-life and how I felt about the new healthcare bill "using your taxpayer money to pay for abortions."

Was the pollster actually claiming that the new healthcare bill uses taxpayer money to pay for abortions, or was it the classic Rovian push-poll hypothetical of "How would you feel if you were told that the new healthcare bill uses taxpayer money to pay for abortions?"

[Marley23]

marshal law is declared
Even if Petraeus ran and won, I don't think his Attorney General would be Garry Marshall.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Though speaking of Generals, what's going on with the "My God is bigger than his God" general?
He (Jerry Boykin) retired is now making even dumber speeches for Tea Parties and the Eagle Forum.

[Skammer]

Was the pollster actually claiming that the new healthcare bill uses taxpayer money to pay for abortions, or was it the classic Rovian push-poll hypothetical of "How would you feel if you were told that the new healthcare bill uses taxpayer money to pay for abortions?" I don't remember the exact question but it was something like "Do you support President Obama's health care bill that provides taxpayer money for the funding of abortions?" Even as a pro-lifer that made me :rolleyes:

[DrDeth]

Seconded. She must have seen the BP disaster unfolding on television, thought back to that quote, and said, "Shit."

Thought?:dubious:

My prediction: it will be Obama vs Palin. The pubbies, knowing they have no chance, will want the fringe righties/teaparty to take the job of losing very badly to the incumbent.

[Captain Amazing]

The poll was about whether or not I was pro-life and how I felt about the new healthcare bill "using your taxpayer money to pay for abortions."

I've been getting calls like that from him for the past year.

[Really Not All That Bright]

One wonders when the push polling about the President's black children (:eek:) will start.

[Larry McAwful]

Midwesterner pol named *a** Ryan? I always think of Jeri Ryan's scuzzy ex Jack Ryan, & I'm probably not the only one. Not as bad as being named Keating or McVeigh, but exploitable.

Where Midwesterners named Ryan are concerned, I like Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH). The earliest he could run for president would be 2016, and I hope he does. The guy's in his mid-thirties right now, so he's got time to think about it.

I'm sure we'll see Paul Ryan in the mix, probably running for vice president. I see Tim Pawlenty emerging as a big someone among Republicans who want a moderate, safe-as-milk candidate. He will lose.

[Diogenes the Cynic]

Pawlenty is not a moderate. He's a hard righty.

[Larry McAwful]

Pawlenty is not a moderate. He's a hard righty.

Yeah, I guess I was unclear. He has some kind of appeal as a moderate--at least, that's how he seems to play in the media--but he really is a hard righty. I think he might get away with it because he's not as outspoken as the other nutcase righties.

[Diogenes the Cynic]

He has a bland personality and doesn't hit the social issues hard in his rhetoric, so gives himself the illusion of being more moderate than the Palins and Bachmanns, but on actually policy, he is down the line conservative, socially and fiscally, and is especially mean on fiscal issues.

[Really Not All That Bright]

He's also polling 10 points behind Obama in Minnesota, even with Obama's approval rating hovering below 50 per cent. The Republican leadership aren't going to put up a candidate who can't even win his own state.

[Larry McAwful]

He has a bland personality and doesn't hit the social issues hard in his rhetoric, so gives himself the illusion of being more moderate than the Palins and Bachmanns, but on actually policy, he is down the line conservative, socially and fiscally, and is especially mean on fiscal issues.

Quite right. Pawlenty is definitely going to run in 2012, but he has no hope of getting the nomination. He might land the VP slot on the Republican ticket, for what that's worth. I don't see 2012 as a good year for the Republicans in presidential politics. This activity might help Pawlenty to stay politically relevant, and maybe position him for a Senate run in the future. I think Klobuchar would clobber him. Franken, on the other hand... we'll see. I've been very happy with Franken as a senator (though not my senator,) but it remains to be seen how he'll perform when he's up again in 2014. I'd love to see him reëlected, but it's too soon to say how Minnesotans will feel about that.

[Diogenes the Cynic]

I think that has something to do with why he got cut from McCain's VP shortlist too. He wouldn't have been able to deliver his own state. He's not popular here. He was never exactly beloved to begin with, but his support has shrunk even more, year by year. He won re-election only by a plurality in a three-way race, and I'm not sure he could even do that anymore.

He's not viscerally hated, though either. He's too bland to really inspire passionate hostility. More like tired dislike.

[Larry McAwful]

He's not viscerally hated, though either. He's too bland to really inspire passionate hostility. More like tired dislike.

Sounds like lutefisk.

[Tom Scud]

reëlected

Nice diaresis.

[Larry McAwful]

Nice diaresis.

Thanks! That New Yorker subscription is really paying off!

[Quartz]

I mentioned it as a joke in another thread, but how about Jesse Ventura? The Republicans don't seem to have anyone of sufficient calibre to beat Obama, so how about if they put their weight behind an independent whose views they can stomach? He'll likely lose, of course, but it will allow those interested to lay down markers for 2016. And if he were to win, there'd be a Republican VP ready for 2016.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Jesse Ventura moved to Mexico in 2006. Don't think that would play too well with voters.

He's also pro-abortion rights, pro-gay rights, called W the worst President in his lifetime, said he'd prosecute anyone engaged in torture of detainees, called organized religion "a sham and crutch for the weak-minded", met with Fidel Castro, and supports legalization of medicinal marijuana.

You're more likely to see the Republican Party endorse Barack Obama.

[Elendil's Heir]

Ventura, like Pawlenty and Norm Coleman, overstayed his welcome in Minn. politics. I just can't see him running for President and getting very far at all. He's too much of a loose cannon, and too lefty/libertarian on some issues for establishment GOPers, to win.

Petraeus has said just about as clearly and as often as he can that he won't be running for President in 2012. Four years after that, or eight, maybe, but I wonder if he has the shelf-life for that.

RNATB, but for Lyndon LaRouche (who polled only about 5%), Clinton was unopposed in the 1996 Dem primaries.

I suspect either Pawlenty or Romney will end up getting the GOP nomination, but both would very likely lose to Obama. It's a looooooong time until Election Day '12, though, and anything could happen between now and then.

[Really Not All That Bright]

The more I think about it, the more I think I'd vote for Ventura. Well, if he wasn't a Truther.

[Diogenes the Cynic]

I don't think he's really a Truther (and he denies that he is, he couches it as "just asking questions"). I think he just likes to provoke reaction.

In a lot of ways, he's exactly what the teabaggers say they want, a real political outsider and iconoclast, small-government budget hawk and tax cutter, and civil libertarian (including on guns). He's also got military cred as an ex Navy SEAL and Vietnam vet.

But the fact that he's a genuine libertarian, including on gay rights, abortion rights and drug laws would turn them right off, as well as the fact that he has no use for religion and says so out loud.

I do have to wonder how he would have dealt with these BP suits.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Nitpick: he's not an ex-SEAL or a Vietnam vet. He's an ex-underwater demolition team member (they were integrated into the SEALs 12 years after Ventura's discharge) and a Vietnam-era veteran.

[Diogenes the Cynic]

He was in Southeast Asia during the war. He is a veteran of the Vietnam War even if he was technically in Cambodia instead of Vietnam.

The SEAL name is too pedantic to matter. He was UDA before they were called SEALS. So what?

[Chronos]

In a lot of ways, he's exactly what the teabaggers say they want, a real political outsider and iconoclast, small-government budget hawk and tax cutter, and civil libertarian (including on guns). He's also got military cred as an ex Navy SEAL and Vietnam vet.Of course, what the teabaggers say they want doesn't bear any particular relationship to what they want. Keep in mind, these are the same people who protest Obama lowering their taxes.

[Long Time First Time]

Mitch Daniels. I'd guess he'll make some noise in 2012, but a more tea party friendly candidate will emerge who will get beat by Obama in the election worse than McCain did in 2008. IMHO, if there's a republican president in 2016, it will be Daniels.

He floated a trial balloon by being quoted in a National Review piece that he'd like to set social disputes aside for a while to concentrate on real problems. He was promptly blasted by Huckabee and the rest of the God crowd. But he's doing his best to signal that he's a non-crazy Republican. If the GO(B)P gets trounced badly enough next time, they'll come around to him.

[Long Time First Time]

That's an interesting question. [Note to self: bug Nate Silver to post here.] Circa 2008, I think the answers are California, Florida, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Nevada, Connecticut, and Minnesota. To get up to date, you'd have to take out Florida and add Virginia and New Jersey.
.

And Indiana. Just saying...

[DrDeth]

Of course, what the teabaggers say they want doesn't bear any particular relationship to what they want. Keep in mind, these are the same people who protest Obama lowering their taxes.

Tea Partiers. They are supposed to be the dues who have little sense, let us not descend to their level.

[Chronos]

I'm not descending; I'm calling them by a label they chose for themselves.

Long Time First Time, poking about a bit online, I can see that. Governor of a midwestern swing state, high popularity... Yeah, he's got the basics covered. Of course, if he starts moving more into the national spotlight, then his negatives are going to get a lot more attention. And he was part of the Bush administration; that's going to taint him a bit.

[septimus]

Here are the latest Intrade percentages for 2012 Republican Presidential nominee:

Mitt Romney 25.2
Sarah Palin 19.2
John Thune 15.8
Newt Gingrich 10.4
Tim Pawlenty 8.2
Mitch Daniels 7.1
Mike Huckabee 6.1
Jeb Bush 4.6
Ron Paul 4.6
Bobby Jindal 3.4
Chris Christie 2.3
Jim DeMint 2.3
David Petraeus 1.3
Mike Pence 1.2
Gary Johnson 1.1
Jon Huntsman 1.0
Haley Barbour 0.9
Paul Ryan 0.8
Rick Perry 0.7
Rick Santorum 0.6
Rudy Giuliani 0.5
Scott Brown 0.5
Tom Coburn 0.5
Joe Scarborough 0.4
Mich. Bloomberg 0.4
George Pataki 0.4
Eric Cantor 0.3
Marco Rubio 0.3
Charlie Crist 0.1
Fred Thompson 0.1
John Kasich 0.1
Bob Corker 0.1
Joe Lieberman 0.1
Colin Powell 0.1
Lou Dobbs 0.1
Mark Sanford 0.1-

(These are average of bid and ask, rounded down to 1 decimal place.)

Other contracts can be traded at Intrade (http://www.intrade.com), e.g.
Higgs Boson Particle to be observed on/before 31 Dec 2012: bid 24.0 ask 44.9
Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012: bid 11.0 ask 29.9

[gonzomax]

He's also polling 10 points behind Obama in Minnesota, even with Obama's approval rating hovering below 50 per cent. The Republican leadership aren't going to put up a candidate who can't even win his own state.

Can you imagine the next election cycles with no limit on spending? If money can buy elections, it will.

[DrDeth]

Can you imagine the next election cycles with no limit on spending? If money can buy elections, it will.

We will find that out here in CA this upcoming General Election for Governor.

However, PG&G lost their little push, and that was big bux vs pennies, so there's hope.

[gonzomax]

Since the Dems will be horribly outspent, they should run Alvin Greene. He shows the ability to win with no money, no organization and no campaigning. He has found the way and should teach other politicians.

[bullrun]

It will not matter in the long run which leftist commie the dems will run in 2010. People across the nation have seen the error of electing this scum for anything.

[E-Sabbath]

It will not matter in the long run which leftist commie the dems will run in 2010. People across the nation have seen the error of electing this scum for anything.

This man is correct. I wouldn't vote for Obama in 2010 for anything.

[Elendil's Heir]

Hmmmm.

:: Quietly signs up bullrun for an "Obama 2012" lawn sign ::

[Really Not All That Bright]

It will not matter in the long run which leftist commie the dems will run in 2010. People across the nation have seen the error of electing this scum for anything.
Seriously. By electing Obama we totally missed out on the opportunity to start even more pointless wars. You should have stayed the course, America!

[New Deal Democrat]

If Palin runs, it'll just be to publicize her latest ghost-written book.

It will also give her the opportunity to give a few ghost written speeches, like her acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention. That speech was excellent. It temporarily pushed John McCain ahead in the polls. I wonder if Sarah knew what all the big words meant.

[New Deal Democrat]

It will not matter in the long run which leftist commie the dems will run in 2010. People across the nation have seen the error of electing this scum for anything.
Seriously. By electing Obama we totally missed out on the opportunity to start even more pointless wars. You should have stayed the course, America!

John McCain had nothing to offer the economy but more tax cuts for the rich, and more military spending. We saw how well that worked when Bush was president.

[New Deal Democrat]

Rasmussen Reports Tuesday, June 22, 2010

U.S. voters think Hillary Clinton is more qualified to be president than Barack Obama, but most believe that both Democrats are more fit for the White House than three top Republicans interested in the job.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/june_2010/voters_say_hillary_more_qualified_to_be_president_than_obama_romney_gingrich_palin

------

Rasmussen Reports usually finds the electorate to be to the right of what other polling agencies report. If this holds up, 2012 should be a good year for the Democrats. :D

[Really Not All That Bright]

It will not matter in the long run which leftist commie the dems will run in 2010. People across the nation have seen the error of electing this scum for anything.
Seriously. By electing Obama we totally missed out on the opportunity to start even more pointless wars. You should have stayed the course, America!

John McCain had nothing to offer the economy but more tax cuts for the rich, and more military spending. We saw how well that worked when Bush was president.
I suspect you may have missed the point of my post.

[diannjoh]

I think the Republicans will pick Newt to run for president.

[Elendil's Heir]

One hundred dollars says they don't.

[Really Not All That Bright]

He got better.

[jayjay]

He got better.

Unfortunately, he really didn't.

[tiescore]

Has the kid outta nowhere appeared yet?
It'll take a fresh face, a political neophyte taking the GOP by storm, to unseat Obama.
I've just not seen any sign of such a phenom, and 2008 retreads, failed Speakers, or Gov's who've been semi-candidates for years aren't going to cut the mustard come 2012. There simply aren't enough GOPers left to elect a president without seriously energizing the independents.

Not necessarily a neophyte, but certainly a smart politician who can talk a fresh game - Mike Pence (IN). (Sorry to keep bringing up Hoosiers.) He has GOP leadership experience and has been talking quite a bit with the tea partiers.

Paul Ryan... fiscal conservative, young, smart, knowledgable about everything political, no radical views, pro free enterprise yet gets support from some of the local labor leaders because he is a compriser, pro smaller but more effective & effecient government, charsmatic with boy next door done good looks... sadly has said he wouldn't run as his kids are too young to expose them to the media craziness that surrounds being in the White House...

[Ludovic]

He got better.

Unfortunately, he really didn't.He didn't move to the right. He didn't even move to the left, but the party moved under his feet. He's now a moderate or even liberal (!) republican.

[Merijeek]

Not necessarily a neophyte, but certainly a smart politician who can talk a fresh game - Mike Pence (IN). (Sorry to keep bringing up Hoosiers.) He has GOP leadership experience and has been talking quite a bit with the tea partiers.

Paul Ryan... fiscal conservative, young, smart, knowledgable about everything political, no radical views, pro free enterprise yet gets support from some of the local labor leaders because he is a compriser, pro smaller but more effective & effecient government, charsmatic with boy next door done good looks... sadly has said he wouldn't run as his kids are too young to expose them to the media craziness that surrounds being in the White House...

Yes, and the purity tests that he'd instantly fail means he wouldn't get anywhere near...well, anything really.

-Joe

[BrainGlutton]

Apropos of nothing, I just heard my home town of Tampa, Florida, will host the 2012 Republican Convention. (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tom-mcguire/tampa-to-host-2012-republ_b_574035.html)

[Liberty61]

I see no one has yet mentioned Gary Johnson (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_E._Johnson). Minor rumblings only, but there have been rumblings...

I love Gary Johnson and already have a bumper sticker on my car. However, I also like Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Ron Paul and John Thune.

[pkbites]

Paul Ryan... fiscal conservative, young, smart, knowledgable about everything political, no radical views, pro free enterprise yet gets support from some of the local labor leaders because he is a compriser, pro smaller but more effective & effecient government, charsmatic with boy next door done good looks... sadly has said he wouldn't run as his kids are too young to expose them to the media craziness that surrounds being in the White House...

I already said this in post #113.

Even if Ryan is not on the ticket As POTUS or VP in 2012, keep your eyes open for him. He's young, attractive, conservative, and is emerging as the ideological leader of the Republican party.

There will also be another Cheesehead pol on the national radar screen, Scott Walker, the next Governor of Wisconsin. If not Ryan, look for a Republican POTUS candidate to tap Walker in '12 or '16 for VP, or perhaps a cabinet position in '13.

[etv78]

His State of the Union response (last year?) was a TRAINWRECK!

[Tom Scud]

His State of the Union response (last year?) was a TRAINWRECK!

Doesn't necessarily mean anything. Bill Clinton's '88 Democratic Convention keynote was horrible.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Apropos of nothing, I just heard my home town of Tampa, Florida, will host the 2012 Republican Convention. (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tom-mcguire/tampa-to-host-2012-republ_b_574035.html)
Well, that should be fun. Not.

[Quartz]

Seriously though, Obama's going to be an extremely tough candidate to beat. There's no sign of a Ross Perot to split the Democrat vote, so why would any sensible Republican stand against him? Americans don't give candidates second chances these days.

[YogSosoth]

Kucinich must run! His wife's really hot

[Chronos]

Hardly a reason for him to run. I mean, we can appreciate Elizabeth Kucinich (http://www.google.com/images?hl=en&safe=off&q=elizabeth+kucinich&um=1&ie=UTF-8&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&biw=1098&bih=681) regardless of whether her husband's running for anything or not.

[Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor]

Hardly a reason for him to run. I mean, we can appreciate Elizabeth Kucinich (http://www.google.com/images?hl=en&safe=off&q=elizabeth+kucinich&um=1&ie=UTF-8&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&biw=1098&bih=681) regardless of whether her husband's running for anything or not.

DAMN! She is hot!

[Digital Stimulus]

Americans don't give candidates second chances these days.
I think that's true of Democrats, but I don't think it really holds for Republicans.

[Quartz]

Hardly a reason for him to run. I mean, we can appreciate Elizabeth Kucinich (http://www.google.com/images?hl=en&safe=off&q=elizabeth+kucinich&um=1&ie=UTF-8&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&biw=1098&bih=681) regardless of whether her husband's running for anything or not.

Mmmm... :D

[etv78]

Seems like Convention Keynote Speakers become the next nominee.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Seriously though, Obama's going to be an extremely tough candidate to beat. There's no sign of a Ross Perot to split the Democrat vote, so why would any sensible Republican stand against him? Americans don't give candidates second chances these days.
The Republicans let Bob Dole lose elections for the Vice Presidency and Presidency.

[Elendil's Heir]

Americans don't give candidates second chances these days.
I think that's true of Democrats, but I don't think it really holds for Republicans.

I think it does, at least at the very top. IIRC, no candidate of either major party, Democratic or Republican, has won a presidential nomination a second time after having lost it once, since Nixon in 1968 (who lost in 1960).

[Digital Stimulus]

I think it does, at least at the very top. IIRC, no candidate of either major party, Democratic or Republican, has won a presidential nomination a second time after having lost it once, since Nixon in 1968 (who lost in 1960).
*cough*John McCain*cough*

[jayjay]

I think it does, at least at the very top. IIRC, no candidate of either major party, Democratic or Republican, has won a presidential nomination a second time after having lost it once, since Nixon in 1968 (who lost in 1960).
*cough*John McCain*cough*

I do believe he means "won a presidential nomination a second time after having lost the general election".

[Digital Stimulus]

*cough*John McCain*cough*

I do believe he means "won a presidential nomination a second time after having lost the general election".
Ah, perhaps. But I think the sample size for that scenario is so small as to be non-indicative of anything at all.

Personally, not being a political history wonk, I can only name two other candidates that might fit that bill -- Grover Cleveland and Teddy Roosevelt. I figure Cleveland 'cuz he was elected to non-consecutive terms, and so likely lost the general election in between; I figure Roosevelt might qualify 'cuz of his Bull Moose candidacy, even though the 3rd party status disqualifies it from bearing any weight here.

And of course, once you go back more than a 1/2 century, the character of any party becomes rather shaky IMO. I don't think one can legitimately draw conclusions too far beyond that timeframe...

[gonzomax]

With the money the Supreme Cort legalized, any Repub has a chance. The next campaign will set records for spending levels.

[Elendil's Heir]

*cough*John McCain*cough*

I do believe he means "won a presidential nomination a second time after having lost the general election".

Correct. Thank you.