Possible 3rd Candidate in IL Senate race

[Jophiel]

People in IL aren't enthused about either Mark Kirk (R) or Alexi Giannoulias (D) for the Illinois senate seat up for grabs this cycle*. According to Public Policy Polling, Giannoulias is leading the race... 31% to 30%. Giannoulias has his baggage as loan officer of his family's bank which has recently been seized by the Feds and a less than stellar performance as state treasurer. Mark Kirk has swung to the right on issues (but not far enough it seems) from previously more moderate stances and seems to be caught in a continuing stream of falsehoods regarding his military service.

So now Mike Niecestro (http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/Look-Out-On-Your-Right-Mark-Kirk-96382454.html#ixzz0qw5zhJZS) is offering himself as an independent conservative candidate for the senate. He says he has more than enough petition signatures to get on the ballot and is willing to put $1mil of his own cash into the race.

Think he'll actually run or is he just trying to force Kirk to the right? If he does run, will he be viable or just split the Republican/conservative vote and clear the way for a Giannoulias victory?

*I refuse to call it "Obama's seat" as that's some stupid media made phrase and I haven't come across anyone here in the Prairie State yet who thinks of it as some special thing. More likely, it's thought of as "the seat that Blagojevich tried to sell and then stuffed with Burris".

[Kolak of Twilo]

Well, I think Giannoulias is likely to be up to his eyebrows in the mess surrounding the family bank but there is no way I would consider voting for Kirk. And the idea of voting for someone who is further to the right....nyah, not gonna happen.

I honestly don't know what I will do regarding this race in November. I suppose I will just have to wait and see what happens between now and then.

[lel]

On the face of things, Illinois doesn't strike me as a state where you can play the card of trying to force someone to the right as a political tactic very well.

I doubt the tactic will go off very well in a blue state.

[Kolak of Twilo]

I undrstand why you may think that but outside of Chicago, it gets red state pretty quick. In particular the further south you go, the redder it gets.

[Chronos]

I undrstand why you may think that but outside of Chicago, it gets red state pretty quick. In particular the further south you go, the redder it gets.That may be relevant in a House race, but the Senate is voted from the population of the state, not the geography, and the population of Illinois is still dominated by Chicago.

[Jophiel]

Supposedly this guy wants to file 45,000 signatures on Monday (although he only needs 25,000) so we'll see tomorrow if he's serious or not.

[Boyo Jim]

Has this 3rd guy mentioned the words, "Tea Party"?

[Kolak of Twilo]

That may be relevant in a House race, but the Senate is voted from the population of the state, not the geography, and the population of Illinois is still dominated by Chicago.
I know the Senate is a state wide race, thanks. That is in fact my point - in the 26 years before Blago, 3 different Republicans won election to the office of Governor (also a state wide race.;)) Additionally a Republican won election to the Senate (Patrick Fitzgerald) as recently as 1998 and served until Obama was elected to the Senate.

I have noticed a definite lack of enthusiasm for Giannoulias just like the OP mentioned. It seems this has a lot to do with questions about the family bank failure and what role he played in it. While you are correct Chicago has a dominate role in state wide races, don't think that guarantees the Dem will win against a Republican. If you don't believe me just ask Carol Moseley Braun, Dawn Clark Netsch, Glenn Poshard or Neil Hartigan.

[Thudlow Boink]

Additionally a Republican won election to the Senate (Patrick Fitzgerald) as recently as 1998 and served until Obama was elected to the Senate. (psst—that's Peter (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Fitzgerald_(senator)), not Patrick (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Fitzgerald).)

[Kolak of Twilo]

Dammit! I KNEW I was going to make that mistake.

[Jophiel]

Well, it seems this guy never had his signatures after all. From Swing State Project:
Bad news on the cat fud front, though: Mike Niecestro, the rich guy who came out of nowhere last week to announce that he had 25,000 signatures and $1 million for an independent Senate bid to Kirk's right, has had to back down. Turns out he didn't have enough signatures after all. However, here's some limited good news: Niecestro says he's backing somebody by the name of Randy Stufflebeam, who'll be running under the Constitution Party banner. Stufflebeam doesn't seem to have Niecestro's money, but he at least seems to have enough signatures to qualify. (Also on the filings front, pawnbroker-turned-LG-nominee-turned-laughingstock Scott Lee Cohen brought in 130K signatures for his independent IL-Gov bid, five times as many as he needs.)

[Elendil's Heir]

I have a very low tolerance for people exaggerating their military service. Just about anyone would be better than Kirk.

[Really Not All That Bright]

He's got a JD from Georgetown and a master's from the LSE, and is a decorated intelligence officer. Why the hell does the guy think he even needs to exaggerate his qualifications?

[Boyo Jim]

He's got a JD from Georgetown and a master's from the LSE, and is a decorated intelligence officer. ...

Are you sure?

[Really Not All That Bright]

Am I sure he was 'Navy Intelligence Officer of the Year'? No. Am I sure he's a decorated intelligence officer? Yes.

Am I sure about the Georgetown and LSE thing? No, but it's on Wikipedia.

[Jophiel]

A federal judge has ruled that Illinois has to hold a special election for the remainder of Obama's senate term (all six or seven weeks of it come November). So we have two senate elections: one for the six weeks and one for the regular six year term. Since there's no time for a primary, they're allowing the parties to choose for themselves who to put on the ballot. Both major parties are expected to run their "real" senate candidates in both slots.

So not only do I not want to vote for either of those idiot jokers but now I'm expected to vote for them twice.

There's an obvious Illinois/Chicago joke in there for you all.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Wonder why it was a federal judge.

[Jophiel]

Beats me, but here's the story (http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2010/07/voters_will_vote_twice_nov_2_f.html):
CHICAGO--State political party leaders will get to pick who's on the ballot for the special election to serve out the remainder of Barack Obama's senate term, U.S. District Judge John Grady said Monday.

Grady has not yet signed a final order, but under the framework he outlined at a hearing Monday, The Republican and Democratic state central committees of Illinois would decide who their nominees would be to fill out the last six weeks or so of Obama's term. The Green Party would do the same and independent or other third-party candidates who qualify for the ballot would also be eligible.

[Ponch8]

I'm probably going to vote for one person for the seven-week term and then the other person for the full six-year term.

[Chronos]

OK, I'm now confused. Wasn't Obama's seat already filled by some guy Bighairovich appointed? Did he have to resign, or something?

[Really Not All That Bright]

That was Roland Burris, and he's still got the seat, but his/Obama's term is up.

[Tom Scud]

OK, I'm now confused. Wasn't Obama's seat already filled by some guy Bighairovich appointed? Did he have to resign, or something?

A court has now overturned that appointment and ruled that a special election needs to be held. Six weeks before the regular election. :smack:

[BrainGlutton]

On the face of things, Illinois doesn't strike me as a state where you can play the card of trying to force someone to the right as a political tactic very well.

I doubt the tactic will go off very well in a blue state.

Well, there are such things as . . . ILLINOIS NAZIS!

[Frank]

That was Roland Burris, and he's still got the seat, but his/Obama's term is up.
I only hope he hasn't already chiseled "U.S. Senate 2009-2011" on his tombstone.

Must be some weird state law designed to kick in if 2 or 4 years was left in the term. I can't imagine any state legislature intending to pass a law that required an election for a seat that expired in 8 weeks. Has to be an accident.