The Florida gubernatorial election

[BrainGlutton]

Since Governor Charlie Crist is resigning to run for the U.S. Senate (see this thread (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=565581)), the governorship of Florida is open and will be on the ballot in the November 2010 elections.

Wikipedia article: Florida gubernatorial election 2010 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_gubernatorial_election,_2010#No_Party_Affiliation)

The primaries are August 24.

The frontrunner for the Democratic nomination is Alex Sink, (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Sink) currently the state Chief Financial Officer. She would be Florida's first female governor ever. The only other candidate who qualified is far-lefty Brian Moore (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Moore_(politician)) (the Socialist Party USA's presidential nominee in 2008).

On the Republican side, the candidates are Bill McCollum, (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_McCollum) currently the state Attorney General; and Rick Scott, (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Scott) a healthcare-industry executive and activist against expanding the government's role in health care.

And a very interesting development: Lawton "Bud" Chiles, son of the popular late Governor Lawton Chiles, (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawton_Mainor_Chiles,_Jr.) is running as a No Party Affiliation candidate. Campaign website. (http://walkwithbud.com/) Chiles is a Tallahassee businessman who has never before held public office -- though he is the former vice president of the children's charity HOPE Worldwide (https://www.hopeww.org/NetCommunity/SSLPage.aspx?pid=191). The Democrats have been trying to talk him into dropping out, fearing he'll split the vote and hand the election to the Republicans, but he won't.

[BrainGlutton]

Clarification: Crist isn't actually resigning anything, he just decided not to run for a second term as governor. Can't campaign for two offices at once, I suppose.

[Zakalwe]

On the Republican side, the candidates are Bill McCollum, (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_McCollum) currently the state Attorney General; and Rick Scott, (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Scott) a healthcare-industry executive and activist against expanding the government's role in health care.Yeah, he made shit loads of money defrauding the Feds, got ousted from his company, and dodged a bullet on charges. Why would he want anything reformed? :dubious:

He also appears to be running much more against Obama than any of the other candidates (or even for Governor really). I've seen a ton of his ads and not one has mentioned anything substantive about Florida (you know - the state he wants to run). They're just "THE GUBMINT IS TAKING OVER HEALTH CARE" screeds; much thunder, no content.

[John DiFool]

I've seen nothing but ads for Scott...err, rather ads against McCollum (they don't even mention Scott by name at all, but instead drop the name of some I-would-assume Teabagger front group at the end). Funny thing is, a lot of the stuff they say about McCollum actually would make me more likely to vote for him, if I as an Indie could do so in the GOP primary.

[Really Not All That Bright]

I have a feeling the RPOF/Jim Greer scandal will make a colllosal mess of this election, and hurt McCopllum. Scott has no chances once people find out who he is. After that, it's anyone's game.

That said, McCollum has to be the odds-on favorite (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/fl/florida_governor_mccollum_vs_sink-1077.html#polls) for now.

[Simplicio]

That said, McCollum has to be the odds-on favorite (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/fl/florida_governor_mccollum_vs_sink-1077.html#polls) for now.

Gotta win the primary (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/other/2010_florida_primary.html) before leading in general election polls helps you, and McCollum appears to be behind in the most recent of those. Agree that without a major scandal, McCollum almost certainly would win the Governors mansion if he can get nominated. Also agree that Scotts a pretty crummy candidate and if he gets the nomination its probably a toss up between him and Sink.

[Zakalwe]

Gotta win the primary (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/other/2010_florida_primary.html) before leading in general election polls helps you, and McCollum appears to be behind in the most recent of those. Agree that without a major scandal, McCollum almost certainly would win the Governors mansion if he can get nominated. Also agree that Scotts a pretty crummy candidate and if he gets the nomination its probably a toss up between him and Sink.The expected GOP primary bloodbath certainly help Sink regardless of who wins the Republican primary.

This is one of those years when I want a none of the above selection. Why don't we just not have a Governor for four years, what could go wrong?

[Really Not All That Bright]

I give you Farid Khavari (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farid_Khavari)!

[Simplicio]

This is one of those years when I want a none of the above selection. Why don't we just not have a Governor for four years, what could go wrong?


What's wrong with Sink. I don't really know anything about her, other then apparently she's the decedent of Chang and Eng, which is kinda cool.

[BrainGlutton]

What's wrong with Sink. I don't really know anything about her, other then apparently she's the decedent of Chang and Eng, which is kinda cool.

Nothing's wrong with her, she's just, you know, an insider, a mainstreamer, a standard-issue politician of upper-middle-class origins with a background in business (former president of Florida operations at Bank of America). In fact, her husband, Bill McBride, ran for governor himself in 2002 (he lost). And currently serving as what amounts to the state's chief accountant. Nothing there for anyone to get really excited over, you know. Except, perhaps, that she would be the first woman in the office, and the first of even partially Asian or other nonwhite ancestry.

[Ludovic]

I've seen nothing but ads for Scott...err, rather ads against McCollum (they don't even mention Scott by name at all, but instead drop the name of some I-would-assume Teabagger front group at the end). Funny thing is, a lot of the stuff they say about McCollum actually would make me more likely to vote for him, if I as an Indie could do so in the GOP primary.
I saw one of those ads the other day and wasn't sure if it was a parody or not. "McCollum: more socialist than you think!" Ummm, ooooookay, I am the sound of Ludovic backing away slowly.

[DigitalC]

I've seen nothing but ads for Scott...err, rather ads against McCollum

Exact opposite here, i see nothing but adds attacking Scott for milking millions out of medicare and from companies illegal aliens use to send money to mexico. I don't see how he could have a chance in Florida of all places.

[Zakalwe]

Exact opposite here, i see nothing but adds attacking Scott for milking millions out of medicare and from companies illegal aliens use to send money to mexico. I don't see how he could have a chance in Florida of all places.If I could ask, where in Florida are you (region is fine, I'm not trying to pin you down)?

[DigitalC]

Orlando.

[NetTrekker]

Clarification: Crist isn't actually resigning anything, he just decided not to run for a second term as governor. Can't campaign for two offices at once, I suppose.

I thought Crist resigned a long time ago. How can you even tell we have a governor?

[NetTrekker]

Gotta win the primary (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/other/2010_florida_primary.html) before leading in general election polls helps you, and McCollum appears to be behind in the most recent of those. Agree that without a major scandal, McCollum almost certainly would win the Governors mansion if he can get nominated. Also agree that Scotts a pretty crummy candidate and if he gets the nomination its probably a toss up between him and Sink.

I could see McCollum benefitting from Obama midterm backlash. I hope it doesn't happen though.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Orlando.
Are you on Brighthouse? I live in Oviedo and I'm not seeing any of that stuff, although in fairness my exposure to campaign ads is typically limited by my refusal to watch network news.

[BrainGlutton]

I met Alex Sink at a lawyers' fundraiser this evening. She made much of not being a career politician, this is only the second ballot she's ever been on, etc. Tried to come across as "nonpartisan," too. Addressing a group of lawyers, she spoke of her role in organizing FASH (Florida Attorneys Saving Homes -- an organization of lawyers volunteering to fight home foreclosures), and she got in some digs at McCollum suing the federal government, and not even finding a Florida lawyer to do it -- he had to get his lobbyist friends from Washington, and Scott spending a fortune of his own money just to get ahead in the Republican primary.

She's not terribly charismatic, has kind of a squeaky voice, not much stage presence; but I'm confident she can wipe the floor with McCollum or Scott without working up a sweat.

[DigitalC]

Are you on Brighthouse? I live in Oviedo and I'm not seeing any of that stuff, although in fairness my exposure to campaign ads is typically limited by my refusal to watch network news.

My exposure comes from watching nothing but network news at work in the early mornings as we don't have cable.

[Wisthekiller]

I'm on Brighthouse and they have a decently fair mix of Scott and McCollum pro and con commericals. I have NOT seen more that 2 or 3 Alex Sink commercials. I DO see Jeff Greene commercials more than Sink though.

[BrainGlutton]

I'm on Brighthouse and they have a decently fair mix of Scott and McCollum pro and con commericals. I have NOT seen more that 2 or 3 Alex Sink commercials. I DO see Jeff Greene commercials more than Sink though.

My guess is, the Sink campaign is so sure she has a lock on the nomination that they are saving their advertising money for the general election.

When they will save even more, by running excerpts of those already-produced Scott/McCollum ads. ;)

[Really Not All That Bright]

That would be my guess too. I haven't seen any, although I see her face every day on the Division of Financial Services website...

[BrainGlutton]

Bay News 9 says McCollum and Scott are still running close, Scott a bit ahead.

I watched some election coverage with a local Dem club and there were cheers every time the screen showed Scott ahead. The consensus seems to be that he's much easier for Sink to beat.

[Zakalwe]

Bay News 9 says McCollum and Scott are still running close, Scott a bit ahead.

I watched some election coverage with a local Dem club and there were cheers every time the screen showed Scott ahead. The consensus seems to be that he's much easier for Sink to beat.Scott's up 46-43 with 78% of precincts reporting. This one's pretty close to over.

As for who's better for Sink, the polls I've seen are mixed. She leads both candidates, but usually within the margin of error and there's rarely more than a point or two difference between the 2 Republican candidates. Typical is a recent Quinnipac poll which had her 31-29 (20 undecided) over McCollum and 33-29 over Scott (again 20 or so undecided).

Of course, Quinnipac's been saying that McCollum was surging with a most recent 44-35 lead over Scott, so...

[BrainGlutton]

I'm on Brighthouse and they have a decently fair mix of Scott and McCollum pro and con commericals. I have NOT seen more that 2 or 3 Alex Sink commercials. I DO see Jeff Greene commercials more than Sink though.

My guess is, the Sink campaign is so sure she has a lock on the nomination that they are saving their advertising money for the general election.

When they will save even more, by running excerpts of those already-produced Scott/McCollum ads. ;)

Aaand it's primary night, Sink has announced her victory, and I just saw the first Alex Sink ad I've ever seen on TV.

[BrainGlutton]

Scott beats McCollum. (http://www.baynews9.com/article/news/2010/august/139414/Businessman-Rick-Scott-wins-Republican-nomination-for-governor)

Sink vs. Scott.

Place your bets.

[Zakalwe]

Aaand it's primary night, Sink has announced her victory, and I just saw the first Alex Sink ad I've ever seen on TV.I've been seeing one for about a week now. Did the one you saw show McCollum and Scott dopplegangers arguing while Sink talks about how much she dislikes negative campaigning?

Scott beats McCollum. (http://www.baynews9.com/article/news/2010/august/139414/Businessman-Rick-Scott-wins-Republican-nomination-for-governor)

Sink vs. Scott.

Place your bets.Sink will start out ahead. Scott will try to tie her to Obama and Crist. This will work (because people are idiots). By October, it'll be neck and neck with Scott maybe even having a slight lead. The last half of October will be a money-fest like Florida's never seen, the Dems will have a dozen PACs throwing mud at Scott whilst Sink stays on the high road. The tide turns in the last week or so and Sink wins in a nail-biter.

The upside for Florida is that most of Scott's stolen federal money will get spent here in Florida as will TONS of national democratic money. TV station and print shop owners will single-handedly resurrect the fancy yacht industry.

[BrainGlutton]

Aaand it's primary night, Sink has announced her victory, and I just saw the first Alex Sink ad I've ever seen on TV.I've been seeing one for about a week now. Did the one you saw show McCollum and Scott dopplegangers arguing while Sink talks about how much she dislikes negative campaigning?

No, this election-night spot made no mention of her opponents at all.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Sink will start out ahead. Scott will try to tie her to Obama and Crist. This will work (because people are idiots). By October, it'll be neck and neck with Scott maybe even having a slight lead. The last half of October will be a money-fest like Florida's never seen, the Dems will have a dozen PACs throwing mud at Scott whilst Sink stays on the high road. The tide turns in the last week or so and Sink wins in a nail-biter.
Sink leads early, Scott leads in the middle, Sink regains lead and wins election on strength of an across-the-board Democratic boost after better than expected economic recovery figures just prior to election day.

[BrainGlutton]

I must admit, I did not see this coming. McCollum is an experienced politician, Florida AG, former Congressman. Rick Scott (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_scott) is what you might call the "Tea Party insurgent" -- but how can even the Tea Partiers stomach this sleazebag? Does anyone here want to make a case for voting for him in November?

[Zakalwe]

Does anyone here want to make a case for voting for him in November?Sure! He's an expert at getting money out of the Fed. He might steal, but put him in the mansion and he'll steal for us!

:p

[Ludovic]

I don't know anything about Scott, but Florida is a purple state. If you manage to out-Red McCollum, you're pretty sure to be too conservative for Floridian voters at large. Barring exceptional voter stupidity above and beyond the average, Sink will be able to coast to victory just by mining Scott's primary quotes. If they're anything like Rubio's, there's lots to choose from ("I blame crist for accepting stimulus money" = "Rubio wants to send our tax dollars to other states and slow down our recovery!")

[waitingforamiracle]

Gotta win the primary (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/other/2010_florida_primary.html) before leading in general election polls helps you, and McCollum appears to be behind in the most recent of those. Agree that without a major scandal, McCollum almost certainly would win the Governors mansion if he can get nominated. Also agree that Scotts a pretty crummy candidate and if he gets the nomination its probably a toss up between him and Sink.The expected GOP primary bloodbath certainly help Sink regardless of who wins the Republican primary.

This is one of those years when I want a none of the above selection. Why don't we just not have a Governor for four years, what could go wrong?

I'm with you on this one 100% :D

[Zakalwe]

McCollum has refused to immediately endorse Scott. (http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/breakingnews/os-mccollum-wont-endorse-20100826,0,2282345.story)

he [McCollum] has "serious questions" about Rick Scott's integrity and honesty and will not endorse — at least for now — the man who beat him in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

He pulled this last time he lost too, but finally caved and endorsed his opponent a few days later.

Scott will now have to begin fundraising from the same people he's been blasting during the primary. Those Party "insiders" who were (according to Scott) "crying in their cocktails" after his win.

The Sink campaign has also stated that they consider the multiple investigations into Scott's companies (Columbia/HCA, and Solantic Urgent Care) as fair topics for the general campaign (although supposedly they don't intend to go negative).

[Really Not All That Bright]

I have serious questions about Rick Scott's integrity and honesty, too.

[BrainGlutton]

Breaking news: Bud Chiles is about to drop his independent bid. (http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2010/09/01/bud-chiles-expected-to-end-bid-for-fla-governor/) Which is good news for the Sink campaign.

[BrainGlutton]

So, one thing we haven't yet discussed in this thread: Who would make the better governor?

Alex Sink. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Sink)

Rick Scott. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_scott)

Make your arguments.

[Zakalwe]

Sink easily. She's at least not actively a crook. She's also had 4 years in state government. I'm REALLY tired of government by amateurs.

[BrainGlutton]

As of 09/01/10, Rassmussen puts it at 45% for Scott, 44% for Sink. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_gubernatorial_election,_2010#General_election) That's post Chiles dropping out.

I saw Sink on TV yesterday and she said she wants five debates. Think it'll happen?

[BrainGlutton]

The first debate, on children's issues, is scheduled for October 16 at the University of Miami. (http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/09/01/1802923/florida-gubernatorial-debate-to.html) "Sink told Lawrence that she intends to participate, while Republican Rick Scott is still in talks with organizers."

[BrainGlutton]

Scott will only agree to two debates: (http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2010/09/rick-scott-agrees-to-two-debates.html) 10/20/10, Nova Southeast University, Davie; 10/25/10, USF Tampa Campus.

[BrainGlutton]

Latest poll has Sink leading by 7 points. (http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/09/23/1838724/poll-alex-sink-leads-rick-scott.html)

[Zakalwe]

Or Scott's up 6 (http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/09/rasmussen-poll-goper-scott-leads-dem-sink-in-fl-gov-race.php). The big difference seems to be what weight you give to the 'likely voter' numbers. Rasmussen has the Republicans weighted heavier than the Dems. While I don't usually agree with them, I'm afraid in this case that Rasmussen is closer to right than Mason-Dixon.

[Zakalwe]

Lots of news today:

Rasmussen has Scott with a 5 point edge. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/florida/election_2010_florida_governor)

Mason Dixon has Sink up 4 (http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/10/08/1863761/poll-sink-ahead-of-scott-but-damaged.html), but beginning to lag based on negative ads from Scott. Her negatives jumped 10 points over the last below (although still well below Scott's negatives).

The first debate was last night (http://www.news-press.com/article/20101009/NEWS0107/101008069/1075/Scott--Sink-exchange-harsh-jabs-at-Florida-gubernatorial-debate) and Sink apparently hammered down on Scott about his tenure as CEO and the "lies" his ads contain.

As far as I can tell, he is lying about the pension fund. While it took a huge hit during the market downturn (as did everybody), it's rebounded well.

I'm still researching the claim about $700K in no-bid contracts to her old employer, Bank of America. Okay, done (should have checked FactCheck first). It appears to be a non-story bordering on an outright lie. Link: http://factcheck.org/2010/10/no-truth-to-no-bid/

[Really Not All That Bright]

The Sink campaign is quietly releasing footage of Scott's HCA inquiry depositions (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIYad3TvY6Q). I don't think they're running on TV, though.

If they do, it might be enough to put the Sink campaign over the top. Scott's testimony does sort of exonerate him from any wrongdoing, but it also makes it very clear that he was asleep at the wheel (or at least pretending to be).

[ShibbOleth]

True story: I was watching TV and my son wandered in the room. He's only 12, and not exactly a political animal - his days mostly consist of school, eating, and playing WoW. A Rick Scott smear ad about Alex Sink came on. He watched it, then said, "Did you see that?"

"See what?" I asked.

"All of those 'bad things' they're saying about her were over ten years ago, except for one. It's in the small print at the bottom. He should have to come up with something more recent."

[Really Not All That Bright]

The Force is strong with Shibbolittle.

[BrainGlutton]

Latest poll shows a dead heat: 45%-45%. (http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/poll-rick-scott-alex-sink-locked-dead-heat-governor-race)

I look forward to some very interesting post-eday litigation.

[BrainGlutton]

Returns show Scott 50%, Sink 48%, but Hillsborough and Miami-Dade have not reported yet. As of midnight, Sink just announced she's not conceding until every vote is counted.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Doesn't look like there are enough votes left for Sink to catch up. There are between 20 and 50 precincts uncounted, which means she'd need just about every registered voter in every remaining precinct to make up the 53,000 votes she's behind by.

[gonzomax]

Rick Scott wins. He is a disgraced health care exec that bought up hospitals and downsized them for quick profits. His hospitals got caught exaggerating illnesses to bilk Medicare out of lots of money. He got caught paying off doctors who would refer patients to Scot's hospitals.
He got nailed for the biggest settlement in history 1.7 billion dollars.
The people of Florida voted him in. It is shameful.

[Really Not All That Bright]

You can't really be "nailed" for a settlement, and it was his company that settled, not him. He eats babies, though.

[BrainGlutton]

Sink conceded this morning. So, that's done. The Florida Pubs now control the governorship, all four elected Cabinet posts, and both houses of the state legislature. Let's see what they do with it.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Enjoy those oil rigss placed to enhance your ocean views, Gulf Coasters.

[Tixenfleaz]

Florida is generally considered the con artist capital of America, so no reason not to have one as king.

Hey, the guy stole millions from taxpayers and used it to get elected governor. You have to give him points for chutzpah, if nothing else.

[ShibbOleth]

Rick Scott wins. He is a disgraced health care exec that bought up hospitals and downsized them for quick profits. His hospitals got caught exaggerating illnesses to bilk Medicare out of lots of money. He got caught paying off doctors who would refer patients to Scot's hospitals.
He got nailed for the biggest settlement in history 1.7 billion dollars.
The people of Florida voted him in. It is shameful.

I'd be ashamed, but I really have to pin a lot of this on Alex Sink. If you can't beat this guy, then really you have no business being in politics. Woefully poor campaign.

[Zakalwe]

I'd be ashamed, but I really have to pin a lot of this on Alex Sink. If you can't beat this guy, then really you have no business being in politics. Woefully poor campaign.Agreed. Frankly, I think the dumbass "cheating" in the last debate cost her the election. It's all I heard about the weekend before the election.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Florida is generally considered the con artist capital of America, so no reason not to have one as king.

Hey, the guy stole millions from taxpayers and used it to get elected governor. You have to give him points for chutzpah, if nothing else.
Maybe we can defraud Medicare to fix our budget shortfall.