Quantifying the Stupid: Polls that make you go "Wha?"

[Olfatbut]

Stunning or sad, either way we are doomed, doomed I say. I collected a few of my favorite poll results from the last year or so in one place just for grins. Did I miss any?


August 2010 poll of Americans:

What is Obama's religion?
34% Christian
18% Muslim
2% Other
43% Don't know

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1701/poll-obama-muslim-christian-church-out-of-politics-political-leaders-religious

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July 2010, Americans:
Was TARP enacted under Bush or Obama?

34% Bush
47% Obama
19% Don't know

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/635.pdf

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Feb 2010, Americans:
Has Obama administration raised, lowered, or kept income taxes about the same?

24% Increased
53% About the same
12% Lowered

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_Tea_Party_021110.pdf

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August 2009, Americans:
Should Government stay out of Medicare?

39% Yes
46% No
15% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/surveys/2009_Archives/PPP_Release_National_819513.pdf

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August 2009, North Carolinians:

Was Obama born in the US?

54% Yes
26% No
20% Not sure

Is Hawaii part of the US?

92% Yes
5% No
3% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/surveys/2009_Archives/PPP_Release_NC_811424.pdf

[Merijeek]

A lot of those could be seen as Rightard wishful thinking.

But this one?

August 2009, Americans:
Should Government stay out of Medicare?

39% Yes
46% No
15% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p...nal_819513.pdf

YOU JUST KEEP THOSE GOD DAMNED PEANUTS OUT OF MY PEANUT BUTTER YOU COMMIE BASTARD!!!!

-Joe

[suranyi]

I am starting to really dread the upcoming election.

I try to take solace in the fact that my house is paid off, and I work for a company based in Amsterdam, so not strongly affected by U.S. politics. So whatever happens in the election, my day-to-day life is unlikely to be affected.

[Cisco]

Take a stats class. Polls don't mean shit.

[tagos]

Take a stats class. Polls don't mean shit.

I have and they do.

[Steve MB]

It's a pity that the history of ginning up "literacy tests" as an excuse to keep blacks from voting has poisoned the well and made it impossible to consider imposing some sort of "anti-ignoramus test" for the franchise.

[BrainGlutton]

It's a pity that the history of ginning up "literacy tests" as an excuse to keep blacks from voting has poisoned the well and made it impossible to consider imposing some sort of "anti-ignoramus test" for the franchise.

Robert Heinlein suggested a system where you have to solve a "simple quadratic equation" before you can vote.

In an "improving the breed" variant, if you can't solve the equation in the time allotted, the door swings open to show an empty voting booth.

[suranyi]

Take a stats class. Polls don't mean shit.

Wait a second. Have YOU ever taken a statistics class? Becaus I have, and one of the things they talk about in detail is how polls, if run properly, can be very accurate. With math and everything.

[Marley23]

Stunning or sad, either way we are doomed, doomed I say.
Because some people are ignorant? You do realize there have always been stupid and uninformed people, right? Why is it suddenly a big problem? However ignorant you think people are now, it used to be worse.


Ok, 18 percent of people incorrectly think he's a Muslim. Then again, 34 percent of people got the question right, and a plurality of people don't know - and I suspect most of those 43 percent don't care what religion he is. If they cared enough to have a firm opinion they'd have said Christian or Muslim.
The TARP thing, of course, is just wrong.
The tax question is vague. Lowered or about the same could both be seen as correct, and a majority of people picked one of those two.
The Medicare one is stupid. Anyone who says "the government should stay out of Medicare" is stupid, but I am also not sure why anyone asked the question this way. It is inherently misleading and begs for bad responses.
North Carolinians may not be sure where Obama was born, but they voted for him anyway.
It's absurd that anyone doesn't know Hawaii is a state, but with that in mind, I'm not that surprised 8 percent of people got it wrong.


Take a stats class. Polls don't mean shit.
I guess you're saying that poll responses often don't align with what people actually think or do, but it would help if you'd explain this. My grades in Intro to Statistics weren't great, but I don't remember hearing "polls don't mean shit." Maybe I slept through class that day.

[Olfatbut]

Stunning or sad, either way we are doomed, doomed I say.
Because some people are ignorant? You do realize there have always been stupid and uninformed people, right? Why is it suddenly a big problem? However ignorant you think people are now, it used to be worse.

I don't doubt that, but one thing I'm not so sure of-- that ignoramuses of generations past were quite so motivated to get out the vote. This has been beaten to death, but the usual suspects have managed to manufacture (based partially on the above misguided beliefs) and harness impressive amounts of ignorant rage.

Is there historical precedent for that, or did the would-be dittoheads and beckbots used to just stay home with the sheep/wife on voting day?

It is encouraging that the ragers seem to be mostly old and unfit but it's going to take a few more election cycles before we see the benefits of that kick in.

[Marley23]

I don't doubt that, but one thing I'm not so sure of-- that ignoramuses of generations past were quite so motivated to get out the vote.
Voter turnout in U.S. elections isn't usually very high compared to other countries. Here's a chart showing the turnout among voting age people (as opposed to eligible voters) in federal elections over the years. (http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html) As you can see, in recent years turnout in midterm elections is usually a little under 40 percent and turnout in presidential election years is usually a little above 50 percent. This doesn't account for education levels or anything, but if you think stupid people are swamping the polls these days I have to wonder how you came to that conclusion.

[Fuzzy Dunlop]

A lot of those could be seen as Rightard wishful thinking.

But this one?

August 2009, Americans:
Should Government stay out of Medicare?

39% Yes
46% No
15% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p...nal_819513.pdf

YOU JUST KEEP THOSE GOD DAMNED PEANUTS OUT OF MY PEANUT BUTTER YOU COMMIE BASTARD!!!!

-Joe

Honestly this is the dumbest question of the bunch posted. "No" is not a very correct response. The best response I can think of would be "Medicare is a social insurance program administered the the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services", and apparently that wasn't an option. A simple "No" implies Medicare wasn't created and almost entirely run by the government (except Medicare Advantage), which is obviously incorrect.

[Marley23]

I think the intended question was "Should the government make any major changes to Medicare?" or "Should a health care reform bill include major changes to the Medicare program?" The wording is terrible and I wondered if the poll was a hit job by a Republican-linked firm. It turns out that Public Policy Polling is affiliated with the Democrats, so my theory is wrong, but I wonder if they deliberately worded the question that way to skew the results one way or just make people look stupid.

[Olfatbut]

Honestly this is the dumbest question of the bunch posted. "No" is not a very correct response. The best response I can think of would be "Medicare is a social insurance program administered the the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services", and apparently that wasn't an option. A simple "No" implies Medicare wasn't created and almost entirely run by the government (except Medicare Advantage), which is obviously incorrect.

Yeah that question doesn't make sense. But who would say "yes"? Maybe the number is skewed high because anyone with half a brain abstained. Unfortunately the pollsters don't give us that info (fractional brain statistics or otherwise).


Is there historical precedent for that, or did the would-be dittoheads and beckbots used to just stay home with the sheep/wife on voting day?

Hey, answered my own question-- McCarthyism went on for nearly 10 years and had wide popular support including citizen-organized "study groups" and political ads suggesting the other guy is a socia\h\h\h\h\h communist. So in say 8 years we'll all have a good laugh about this whole episode.

[Marley23]

Yeah that question doesn't make sense. But who would say "yes"?
People who don't want big changes to Medicare, perhaps. We don't know because of the stupid wording.

[Hilarity N. Suze]

... if you think stupid people are swamping the polls these days I have to wonder how you came to that conclusion.

By looking at the politicians elected?

[Marley23]

... if you think stupid people are swamping the polls these days I have to wonder how you came to that conclusion.

By looking at the politicians elected?
Ok, you've got me there.

[BrainGlutton]

... if you think stupid people are swamping the polls these days I have to wonder how you came to that conclusion.

By looking at the politicians elected?

What, are they dumber choices than they used to be?

[Cisco]

I guess you're saying that poll responses often don't align with what people actually think or do, but it would help if you'd explain this. My grades in Intro to Statistics weren't great, but I don't remember hearing "polls don't mean shit." Maybe I slept through class that day.
I'm not going to read all of the OP's links, because the first one I clicked on was 24 pages, but basically the first big problem with polls is that the methods often aren't published. A surprising number of polls, if you pay attention, don't even tell you the actual question they asked. They almost never tell you how participants were selected. They almost never tell you the context in which the questions are asked. There are discrepancies between what people think vs. how they act, how they want to be perceived vs. how they really feel, etc, and a lot of people just flat out lie to pollsters. Another of the biggest problems with polls that has popped up in the last few years is that they are often done by landline telephone, and younger people are increasingly going without landlines, skewing the sample older.

Those of you who said polls can be very accurate are right: they can be, but very often aren't. And when they start asking dumbassed questions like "should government stay out of medicare?", forget about it.

Check out this clip (http://www.evtv1.com/player.aspx?itemnum=9472) (warning: language). I realize it's a comedy show, but pay attention to what the pollster says at 0:32: "the key in survey research is to . . . ask a question in a way that you get the right answer."

Anecdote time
I was just talking to a scientist a few days ago about this very subject. He told me about a meta-study he had recently read about the way questions are asked in polls. It started off by saying that conservatives generally favor nuclear power. So if asked if nuclear power was good because it lowered carbon emissions, conservatives gave a resounding yes. A group of conservatives selected using the same methods, however, was asked if carbon emissions were harmful without being put into the context of nuclear power, and the answer was an emphatic NO. Pollsters know this and so they can get the answer they want just by the context they put the question in, without changing one word of the question.

So polls can mean something, but I am generally very skeptical of them.

[Leaper]

I think the thing with the TARP question is that there are enough people who confuse it with the stimulus that it puts it over the edge, as it were. My guess is many of those respondents are simply thinking of the wrong thing.

[BigT]

For me, the TARP thing is merely that I've almost never heard it called that. That may be the official name, but I've been hearing it mostly called "the bailout."

If I were voting, I'd assume it was talking about the bailout. But I'd also assume it was a trick question, so I'd say Bush, thinking that maybe the stimulus was a type of bailout.

[Ají de Gallina]

These polls remind of some in my country were two questions are asked:
1) Do you think the Minister of X is doing a good job?
2) Do you know the name of the Minister of X?

In 1 the guy gets creames 62% disapproval, in 2, 85% can't even name the hated guy.

--------------------------------------------------

I don't believe that more than 10% of Americans know exactly what TARP is.

[Wendell Wagner]

The intent of the question was not to ask if people wanted changes to Medicare. The question was asked because some people were observed carrying signs at political rallies that said (something like), "Keep the goverment's hands off of Medicare." In other words, they actually believed that Medicare wasn't a government program and that they were woried that the government might mess it up by taking it over. The pollsters asked the question to see how common this belief was.

[Captain Amazing]

The question was asked because some people were observed carrying signs at political rallies that said (something like), "Keep the goverment's hands off of Medicare." In other words, they actually believed that Medicare wasn't a government program and that they were woried that the government might mess it up by taking it over.

Not necessarily. One of the things the health care bill did was to cut Medicare advantage and other Medicare programs to help fund some of the new health programs. So a sign like "Keep the government's hands off Medicare" might just mean that the sign holder doesn't want the government to make Medicare cuts.

[Reepicheep]

August 2009, North Carolinians:

Was Obama born in the US?

54% Yes
26% No
20% Not sure

Is Hawaii part of the US?

92% Yes
5% No
3% Not sure




That 3% may have been answering a question not asked. "Was Hawaii a part of the US, when Obama was born. Since most people know Hawaii became a state in 1959, and that Obama was born 'sometime around then' (1961 & 1959 are only 2 years apart) the 3% could be saying they are not sure if Hawaii was part of the US when Obama was born. The 5%, I can only hope, were thinking contiguous United States.

[Boyo Jim]

75% of American believe that TARP has too high a mercury content to be safe.

[Saint Cad]

38.1% of Americans reported that they never respond to polls.

[shiftless]

Most of the campaign money spent is in trying to muddy the waters about what the two (or rarely, three) candidates believe and plan to do. Is it any wonder that most people are confused?

Candidate A says candidate B eats babies. Candidate B denies this (he would, of course!) The various media outlets do in-depth interviews with party members from both sides who all explain how those words "eat" and "babies" and be interpreted. Plus they get in some experts on baby eating, perhaps including a visit by chef Gordon Ramsey on the Today show with some recipes that candidate B may have used. Then the pollsters go out asking either how we feel about candidate B's baby eating or about candidate A's lying. The system is working like normal.

[DrDeth]

Robert Heinlein suggested a system where you have to solve a "simple quadratic equation" before you can vote..


And we need to solve "simple quadratic equations" in our real life?:dubious: Of course, he could do that, so he thought it was a good test.:p

I have a better one- fill out a 1040EZ tax return.

[Captain Midnight]

My answers:

What is Obama's religion?
34% Christian
18% Muslim
2% Other
43% Don't know
_______________________

I personally think the man is an agnostic/atheist. I have never seen him as President going into a church. Jeremiah Wright was someone that Obama looked to for guidance. His father and stepfather were members of the Islamic faith and Obama lived in an Islamic nation for several years as a child.

July 2010, Americans:
Was TARP enacted under Bush or Obama?

34% Bush
47% Obama
19% Don't know

What's a TARP? Oh, the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Has Obama administration raised, lowered, or kept income taxes about the same?

24% Increased
53% About the same
12% Lowered

Has Obama increased taxes? I know that he has spent money like Rick James on crack, which leads to this monsterous deficit that devalues the American dollar here at home and overseas. So, yes, taxes have been increased.

Should Government stay out of Medicare?

39% Yes
46% No
15% Not sure

Medicare should be there for senior citizens, children under the age of 13, and mentally/physically disabled people (including veterans). Everyone else should be responsible for their health care. Problem again is, with the monsterous federal debt and the decling value of the dollar, healthcare has gotten more expensive with the government playing catch up. Of course, every American wants their free health checkup but they refuse to pay the taxes on it.

If the United States spend as much money on education and health instead of blowing up little brown people in the Middle East, we could have the best of both on the Planet. Oh well.


Was Obama born in the US?

54% Yes
26% No
20% Not sure

I really don't know. As far as I am concerned, he was born of an American mother and it is irrelevant where he was plopped out of, Hawaii, Kenya or the Moon.

Is Hawaii part of the US?

92% Yes
5% No
3% Not sure

No. Hawaii is a Japanese Province called Hikkihoko Du (which makes Obama oriental and not eligible to be President or drive a car).

[Marley23]

I personally think the man is an agnostic/atheist. I have never seen him as President going into a church.
Google would probably be able to remedy that. He doesn't appear to be a regular churchgoer, but I don't think Bush went to church that much either when he was in office. (http://www.ajc.com/news/q-how-does-the-162142.html)

Jeremiah Wright was someone that Obama looked to for guidance.
Uh, I notice you omit that Wright's title. (Hint: Reverend.) Atheists and agnostics can get guidance from ministers, of course, but this doesn't support your view.

His father and stepfather were members of the Islamic faith
This is false.

What's a TARP? Oh, the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
That's a pretty important thing not to know.

Has Obama increased taxes? I know that he has spent money like Rick James on crack, which leads to this monsterous deficit that devalues the American dollar here at home and overseas. So, yes, taxes have been increased.
That's a nonsense definition of raising taxes.

[Really Not All That Bright]

96% of Americans agree that Captain Midnight's post is really, really stupid.

[descamisado]

Count me in.

Ninety-seven percent.

[Lobohan]

My answers:
[snip]
I personally think the man is an agnostic/atheist. I have never seen him as President going into a church. Jeremiah Wright was someone that Obama looked to for guidance. His father and stepfather were members of the Islamic faith and Obama lived in an Islamic nation for several years as a child.Jeremiah Wright is a Christian. Also not so much on the father-stepfather thing.

What's a TARP? Oh, the Troubled Asset Relief Program.I like having a financial system.

Has Obama increased taxes? I know that he has spent money like Rick James on crack, which leads to this monsterous deficit that devalues the American dollar here at home and overseas. So, yes, taxes have been increased.Are you aware we are in a huge and gnarly recession? The money that was spent needed to be. For instance, without the Auto Bailout upwards of a million people might have lost their jobs as cascade failures of businesses radiated from the auto companies to their suppliers. Since the Auto Bailout is nearly paid back, do you think that's a good thing or a bad thing? The Stimulus was seen as necessary by economists across the board. What exactly has he been spending so much on? If you're on fire and your wife spends a dollar on a bottle of water to put it out that money isn't wasted. It's necessary spending.

Also he lowered taxes.

Medicare should be there for senior citizens, children under the age of 13, and mentally/physically disabled people (including veterans). Everyone else should be responsible for their health care. Problem again is, with the monsterous federal debt and the decling value of the dollar, healthcare has gotten more expensive with the government playing catch up. Of course, every American wants their free health checkup but they refuse to pay the taxes on it.

If the United States spend as much money on education and health instead of blowing up little brown people in the Middle East, we could have the best of both on the Planet. Oh well.The HCR law actually saves us money. The Medicare cuts are to a private "Medicare Advantage" business that actually costs more and does no better than Medicare. The government was paying a private business to administrate Medicare Advantage. The money cut is the profit and overhead that the businesses added to the system without providing any benefit.

I really don't know. As far as I am concerned, he was born of an American mother and it is irrelevant where he was plopped out of, Hawaii, Kenya or the Moon.He was born in the US. There is a birth certificate and everything. I've actually seen it on the internets.

No. Hawaii is a Japanese Province called Hikkihoko Du (which makes Obama oriental and not eligible to be President or drive a car).Having been brought up in Hawaii I can say that this is indeed true. :D

[Merijeek]

Are you aware we are in a huge and gnarly recession? The money that was spent needed to be. For instance, without the Auto Bailout upwards of a million people might have lost their jobs as cascade failures of businesses radiated from the auto companies to their suppliers. Since the Auto Bailout is nearly paid back, do you think that's a good thing or a bad thing? The Stimulus was seen as necessary by economists across the board. What exactly has he been spending so much on? If you're on fire and your wife spends a dollar on a bottle of water to put it out that money isn't wasted. It's necessary spending.


But see, but Midnight's tax logic, Obama is responsible for raising the wages of all of us who still have jobs.

How? Easy.

See, there's a million people still working because of the dreaded Obama Auto Bailout. Had the American auto companies failed, there would be even more people out of work. That means that even more people would be able to compete with your for your job. Therefore, your pay would go down (unless you want it to go down to zero, ya dig?).

But it didn't happen, those people still have jobs, and therefore we should all thank Obama for our higher paychecks.

The fact that my check is the same it was before is totally irrelevant against the white hot intensity of logic such as that.

-Joe

[Zephyurs]

Has Obama increased taxes? I know that he has spent money like Rick James on crack, which leads to this monsterous deficit that devalues the American dollar here at home and overseas. So, yes, taxes have been increased.


Saying something "devalues" the dollar is equivalent to saying it's causing inflation. So even if the nominal dollar value of taxes paid had remained constant, a person would be paying effectively less in taxes than they would otherwise.

[BrainGlutton]

Saying something "devalues" the dollar is equivalent to saying it's causing inflation. So even if the nominal dollar value of taxes paid had remained constant, a person would be paying effectively less in taxes than they would otherwise.

Yes, but inflation, if it leads to a rise in wages, can cause "bracket creep," i.e., you're paying Uncle Sam a higher percentage of what amounts to the same income in buying power. At least, I remember old Ronald Reagan calling attention to that, and in the wake of the 1970s hyperinflation it seemed to make sense. Don't know if it's still a problem.