2012 U.S. Election

[NetTrekker]

Of course it's too early..

So who will be the Repugnican nominee?

[BrainGlutton]

Romney. He is a sentient of faith! (http://www.villagevoice.com/2007-05-22/news/campaign-season-on-planet-glox/)

[Jas09]

Why Repugnican? Is that really necessary? Sheesh...

Anyways, there are a ton of possibilities at this point, but my money is on a GOP governor. Mitch Daniels, of Indiana, being my current favorite (meaning most likely, not the one I necessarily like the best). Christie is an interesting one, perhaps more for VP. Getting a number of new Governors last night really helps the GOP bench.

Rubio is certainly a possibility as a VP candidate, but much will depend on how he handles his new Senate role.

I believe without MassCare, Romney would be the clear choice.

[Euphonious Polemic]

Palin/Bachman 2012!

[Jas09]

Or here's an idea:

Bush / Cheney 2012! They can use the same buttons, even.

Jeb and Liz, obviously.

[foolsguinea]

Pawlenty, Romney, or Palin. I expect it will be name that's got some reputation already, not some new person out of nowhere.

[Jas09]

Pawlenty, Romney, or Palin. I expect it will be name that's got some reputation already, not some new person out of nowhere.I would agree, if there was anyone with name recognition that didn't have massive negatives. Pawlenty seems to have absolutely zero pull within the GOP base. Palin has ridiculous disapproval ratings - it's possible the 25-percenters will carry her to the nomination, but I'm not sure how viable that is for a presidential run (when was the last non-establishment GOP presidential candidate?).

Which leaves Romney. Who created his own little Obamacare, is from liberal-hellhole Mass, and is a Mormon.

I'll take the field. :)

[NetTrekker]

Why Repugnican? Is that really necessary? Sheesh...

Anyways, there are a ton of possibilities at this point, but my money is on a GOP governor. Mitch Daniels, of Indiana, being my current favorite (meaning most likely, not the one I necessarily like the best). Christie is an interesting one, perhaps more for VP. Getting a number of new Governors last night really helps the GOP bench.

Rubio is certainly a possibility as a VP candidate, but much will depend on how he handles his new Senate role.

I believe without MassCare, Romney would be the clear choice.

Sorry. I would have said Democrap but I think we already know who that nominee will be :D And actually it's not too early by much since they'll be lining up early next year and in full campaign mode by the end of the year. I expect to see Newt also testing the waters and maybe another go for Huckabee.

[Chefguy]

Don't know how many times I have to say this, but PALIN WILL NOT RUN. There's not enough money in it and people will say poopy things about her. She'll hint vaguely about "maybe" running, but if she does, I'll give each of you a big wet sloppy.

[Frank]

I do not believe it will be someone from the field. By the time the campaign gets underway only two or three months from now, the economy will still not have recovered and (especially after the recent results) Obama will be percieved as eminently beatable. I expect every Republican heavyweight, 3/4 of the middleweights, and half of the lightweights to have announced by March or April.

I have two predictions, and they depend on what happens with the Tea Party in the next year to year and a half. If the Tea Partiers blend back in with the Republican Pary, I would expect the nominee to be Romney; otherwise, Palin.

[Frank]

Don't know how many times I have to say this, but PALIN WILL NOT RUN.
I disagree. At least with the all caps.

[Qin Shi Huangdi]

I think Pawlenty/Jindal or Romney/Pawlenty or Romney/Jindal has a nice ring to it.

[Chronos]

Don't know how many times I have to say this, but PALIN WILL NOT RUN. There's not enough money in it and people will say poopy things about her. She'll hint vaguely about "maybe" running, but if she does, I'll give each of you a big wet sloppy.She'll run, all right, and stay in the race at least long enough for the first primaries. Then she'll quit. Got to keep stretching out those 15 minutes, after all.

I've said before that Romney is the most likely choice. No, it's not logical to rail against the national health care bill and then vote for someone who did basically the same thing at the state level, but what does logic have to do with anything?

And it definitely isn't going to be Pawlenty. Who, aside from Pawlenty, actually likes him? Even among Republicans, he's not all that popular, and I get the impression that Minnesota is pretty well sick of him.

[dalej42]

Rick Perry of Texas will be the Republican nominee.

All he needs to do is win the states Bush won in 2004.

[pkbites]

At this time there are too many possibilities and too many unknown variables for me to make even an educated guess who could be the nominee 2 years from now.

I would love for Paul Ryan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ryan_%28politician%29) or Scott Walker (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_%28politician%29) to be on the ticket, at very least as VP if not for President.

Either way, keep your eyes and ears open about both of these outstanding gentlemen. They are going to be the next superstars of conservative politics for at least the next decade and, considering their youth, much, much longer!

[elfkin477]

Don't know how many times I have to say this, but PALIN WILL NOT RUN. There's not enough money in it and people will say poopy things about her. She'll hint vaguely about "maybe" running, but if she does, I'll give each of you a big wet sloppy.
From your lips to God's ears, Chefguy. I can't vote if the election comes down to Obama/Palin. I just can't. Romney feels more realistic though.

I know people who'd like to see Marco Rubio run, but he's way too young to be a real contender. Maybe in 1216 or 1220.

[Chefguy]

She'll run, all right, and stay in the race at least long enough for the first primaries. Then she'll quit. Got to keep stretching out those 15 minutes, after all.

I've said before that Romney is the most likely choice. No, it's not logical to rail against the national health care bill and then vote for someone who did basically the same thing at the state level, but what does logic have to do with anything?

And it definitely isn't going to be Pawlenty. Who, aside from Pawlenty, actually likes him? Even among Republicans, he's not all that popular, and I get the impression that Minnesota is pretty well sick of him.

She may possibly form an exploratory group which will bring more cash into her bank account, since it will generate speaking engagements, but expose herself to live debate and the inevitable public ridicule: I really doubt it.

[gonzomax]

I believe last week "the quitinator, Palin' said if no one else takes the reins, she just might have to run. poor woman would be forced to give up so much money to save the union. Such a sacrifice.

[Chronos]

I know people who'd like to see Marco Rubio run, but he's way too young to be a real contender. Maybe in 1216 or 1220. Are we talking about him running for President, or for King?

[Chefguy]

I believe last week "the quitinator, Palin' said if no one else takes the reins, she just might have to run. poor woman would be forced to give up so much money to save the union. Such a sacrifice.

That's a pretty safe bet, by her. No commitment, and she knows there will be many who will be happy to 'take the reins'. Or "reigns", if they get their way.

[elfkin477]

Are we talking about him running for President, or for King? Prom king?

[Drum God]

I agree (and shudder) that Rick Perry will make a run. He's already doing a nationwide book tour. But, will the nation be ready for another Texas governor? Ricky will make Dub look like a frickin' genius.

[Kolak of Twilo]

I agree (and shudder) that Rick Perry will make a run. He's already doing a nationwide book tour. But, will the nation be ready for another Texas governor? Ricky will make Dub look like a frickin' genius.

Seconded. I'd say he's as dumb as a sack full of hair but it would be such an awful insult to the hair. And the sack.

[John D'Adamo]

I really don't see how it can be anyone but Romney at this point. Gingrich, the only other likely centrist Republican candidate, has little support. Palin, Huck, and Perry are all too far to the right to swing states like PA/CO/NM/OH, and Ron Paul is, well, Ron Paul. But Dopers more politically minded than myself can fight my ignorance here.

[Merijeek]

Don't know how many times I have to say this, but PALIN WILL NOT RUN. There's not enough money in it and people will say poopy things about her. She'll hint vaguely about "maybe" running, but if she does, I'll give each of you a big wet sloppy.

Four-letter or seven letter?

-Joe

[Merijeek]

Don't know how many times I have to say this, but PALIN WILL NOT RUN. There's not enough money in it and people will say poopy things about her. She'll hint vaguely about "maybe" running, but if she does, I'll give each of you a big wet sloppy.

Four-letter or seven letter?


Either way, keep your eyes and ears open about both of these outstanding gentlemen. They are going to be the next superstars of conservative politics for at least the next decade and, considering their youth, much, much longer!

Yeah, Ryan sure is a superstar. I especially liked his fictional budget that not even his own party would acknowledge existed. That was so impressive.

Looks like ye-olde edit function is screwy. Yay.

-Joe

[ShibbOleth]

I would love for Paul Ryan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ryan_%28politician%29) or Scott Walker (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_%28politician%29) to be on the ticket, at very least as VP if not for President.


Wow, Ryan Paul looks like a Ronald Reagan impersonator!

[Morgenstern]

Dear Og.
Not Palin. Please, not Palin. I will never drink, smoke or peek at porn again if you make sure it's not Palin.
Amen.

[pkbites]

Four-letter or seven letter?Yeah, Ryan sure is a superstar. I especially liked his fictional budget that not even his own party would acknowledge existed. That was so impressive.
Looks like ye-olde edit function is screwy. Yay.

-Joe


Uh huh. Because all superstars start out on top, right?:rolleyes:

Per my post, keep your eyes open, and per this post be prepared to eat some serious freaking crow in the next 2 years or so!

[Merijeek]

Uh huh. Because all superstars start out on top, right?:rolleyes:

Per my post, keep your eyes open, and per this post be prepared to eat some serious freaking crow in the next 2 years or so!

No, they don't start out on top. However, if their own party ignores their super awesome groundbreaking idea, the one that is supposed to showcase what a great, upcoming "Young Gun" they are, then they are nothing. They pretended that it didn't even exist. I know he's your homegrown cheesehead GOPer, but that doesn't really count for much.

Remember Jindal? Man, he was going to be the token that took down Obama. It was going to be so AWESOME! And then he stumbled through a sad little speech like a little kid thrown into the big leagues.

-Joe

[longhair75]

Palin /Voldemort for 2012!

[jsgoddess]

Wow, Ryan Paul looks like a Ronald Reagan impersonator!

Jesus, you ain't kiddin'. Someone tell me he was wearing a Reagan wig.

Can historians pull up this time in 2006 or 2002 or 1998 and say who the front-runners were thought to be? Is there time for a nobody to become a somebody?

[Saint Cad]

I've said before that Romney is the most likely choice. No, it's not logical to rail against the national health care bill and then vote for someone who did basically the same thing at the state level, but what does logic have to do with anything?


Actually it makes perfect sense. The Constitution does not allow the Feds to have UHC but the States can (10th Amendment)

[Chronos]

Wait, the Feds can't levy taxes for the common welfare? Dangit, my copy of the Constitution must be out of date. Does this also apply to Medicare, the VA system, and the federal employee health plan?

[Saint Cad]

Wait, the Feds can't levy taxes for the common welfare? Dangit, my copy of the Constitution must be out of date. Does this also apply to Medicare, the VA system, and the federal employee health plan?

My point was that there is a way to justify implementing UHC at a state level while railing against it at the federal level. Not saying it's Constitutionally accurate (especially after the New Deal , SD v. Dole, etc.) but assuming that "general welfare" doesn't mean "whatever the Feds say it is" then yes, I think that position can be argued under the 10th Amendment.

But then again, that's up to SCOTUS isn't it?

[Aro]

Quick Q from an outsider:
Are there currently (or have there recently been) any Californian Republicans who would be 'republican enough' to win their party nomination and, in the general, 'liberal' enough to carry their own state? ( Yes, in the mould of Senator Vinick from The West Wing. )

Thanks.

[Really Not All That Bright]

I would love for Paul Ryan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ryan_%28politician%29) or Scott Walker (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_%28politician%29) to be on the ticket, at very least as VP if not for President.
You want Scott Walker the county commissioner to run for President? Seriously, why stop there if we're just going to name conservatives with ties Wisconsin? Brett Favre won't have much to do next year.

[pkbites]

You want Scott Walker the county commissioner to run for President? Seriously, why stop there if we're just going to name conservatives with ties Wisconsin? Brett Favre won't have much to do next year.

Scott Walker is the Governor-elect. Before that he has been the County Executive of the largest metro-area of the state, and before that he was in the state legislature.

By 2012 he will have had way more executive experience that Obama had.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Being Governor is reasonably relevant executive experience.

However, Milwaukee County has a population comfortably under a million. Granted, it's not Wasila, but it's not much more relevant.

[pkbites]

Being Governor is reasonably relevant executive experience.

However, Milwaukee County has a population comfortably under a million.


959,521 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milwaukee_County,_Wisconsin) is

"comfortably under a million"?

Why, it's practically the sister city of Glenbeulah.;)

[Really Not All That Bright]

31,000 isn't comfortable?

[soplatole]

possibly Ron Paul

[soplatole]

oops, didn't mean to be derogatory towards the great Ron Paul, disregard what I said earlier

[New Deal Democrat]

Don't know how many times I have to say this, but PALIN WILL NOT RUN. There's not enough money in it and people will say poopy things about her. She'll hint vaguely about "maybe" running, but if she does, I'll give each of you a big wet sloppy.

As long as Sarah Palin can make money as a political commentator that is what she will do, while hinting about a presidential run to keep things interesting.

[Andrew Trezise]

The United States is a great country because it allows freedom. I don't think China would have had the press publish The Pentagon Papers, like America did in 1971.
However, the US has to stop making ignorance a virtue. Fundmentalist, jesusfreaking ding-alings, we don't want. Palin having babies at 46 or whatever it was...absolute ignorance. I'm inclined to agree with Chaney: Obama may be a 1 term President.

[Marley23]

However, the US has to stop making ignorance a virtue. Fundmentalist, jesusfreaking ding-alings, we don't want. Palin having babies at 46 or whatever it was...absolute ignorance.
This doesn't answer the question in the thread and it's really nothing but a partisan broadside. (So is "Repugnicans" in the OP, but that's two and a half months old.) Please keep stuff like this in Great Debates or the BBQ Pit.

[Chefguy]

As long as Sarah Palin can make money as a political commentator that is what she will do, while hinting about a presidential run to keep things interesting.

I was discussing this with a friend the other day. It's obvious to me that along with money, Palin's other god is Narcissus. It would be entirely appealing to her to have other, more viable candidates, fawning over her as supplicants. To that end, she could announce that she is running in order to keep her loyal fanbase salivating at the prospect of a Palin presidency. She could run a mock campaign for awhile (putting little time or effort into actual serious campaigning) and then throw her support to whomever courts her properly. The ego boost would be gratifying to her, and the money would roll in ever more quickly.

[Jack Batty]

Will Obama be the 2012 Democratic nominee? Not if anti-abortion activist Randall Terry (http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/01/20/terry.run/index.html) (who's also against perennial Democratic boogey-men 'homosexuality, infidelity, birth control, divorce and unwed mothers') has anything to say about it.

A quote from Mr. Terry: 'My constituency is the millions of pro-life advocates who want to make child killing illegal from conception until birth.'

No word on what he wants to do with them once they pop out.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Well, they say you need a big tent.

[enlightenedrogue]

In terms of both budgetary and geopolitical expertise, I'd like to see Mitch Daniels as president and John Bolton as Vice President. Daniels has attracted considerable investment to Indiana while neighboring states teeter on the verge of bankruptcy. And, Bolton has the experience to navigate the many global challenges we now face. Their election would contribute significantly to business continuity, helping us out of this recession.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Indiana had a $1.8 billion budget shortfall last year.

[appleciders]

John Bolton? Bush's ambassador to the U.N., who said that the U.N. doesn't exist? Wow, I hope not.

[Marley23]

John Bolton? Bush's ambassador to the U.N., who said that the U.N. doesn't exist? Wow, I hope not.
And history has been very kind to Bush's foreign policy so far, right? ;) I don't think anybody is going to be calling Bolton's number.

[appleciders]

Hey, someone called Sarah Palin's number. But no, I don't think that John Bolton's record merits any further service. His Wikipedia page suggests that he's considering a run, though I'd be surprised if he was still in the race by the time Iowa rolls around.

[Quartz]

As an outsider, I really don't understand why any serious candidate would want to go up against Obama. The economy is gradually turning around and will be seen to be doing so next year, so absent a major incident, Obama's pretty much a lock.

So are these people just making noises in preparation for 2016? Or are they gambling on such an incident, realising that this is their one and only chance?

[Gyrate]

The thought of John Bolton in office makes me break out in a cold sweat. If you thought Bush irritated the rest of the world, wait until John "we're America so fuck you" Bolton gets elected.

I expect Palin to do the Mario Cuomo dance and play the will-she-won't-she game long enough to raise some cash and stay in the spotlight for as long as possible but ultimately not run due to family reasons or some such nonsense. She'll then play kingmaker and commentator for the rest of the campaign season, for even more cash and exposure. And then she "write" a book or two about it. A win all around for her.

(On a tangent: did she ever do anything with those clothes?)

[Chronos]

(On a tangent: did she ever do anything with those clothes?) Of course. She wore them.

[BobLibDem]

(On a tangent: did she ever do anything with those clothes?)

I thought she stuffed them in garbage bags and dropped them off at the RNC.

[The_Peyote_Coyote]

I think it will be Romney. I think Mitch Daniels and Jeb Bush will be dark horses.

[Zakalwe]

I think it will be Romney. I think Mitch Daniels and Jeb Bush will be dark horses.Jeb won't run. No way, no how.