What will happen between Pujols and the Cards this year? [Archive]

Bayard

02-10-2011, 12:17 PM

I cannot rationally vote in this poll... I hope both sides come to an agreement, but it is becoming more likely that it goes to free agency.

My heart says he's a Card for life.

Oh, I'm not voting rationally, either. I don't have any real information to base my opinion on. Just... desperate hope, really. I kinda think they'll get it done by 2/16, just based on my sense that both sides seem to want to make it work. But I have no clue, really.

kunilou

02-10-2011, 12:23 PM

Whatever happens

Half the fans will blame Mozelak and DeWitt for not getting a deal done sooner.
Half the fans will castigate Pujols for being greedy, since no ballplayer is worth that much.
Half the fans will decide this is the best time to maximize Pujols' value by trading him for the entire 1927 Yankees.
Half the fans will complain that ticket prices will go up and that the owners could afford to sign Pujols and pay him out of spare change.
Half the fans will blame LaRussa -- just because.

Yes, those totals do add up to more than 100%. What's your point?

Skammer

02-10-2011, 12:28 PM

The guys on MLB radio this morning said that there is just about no way there will an agreement before 2/16, according to team sources.

If I had to bet, I'd put money on a deal getting done after the deadline though. I think Pujols wants to stay in St. Louis and they want to keep him.

Marley23

02-10-2011, 12:33 PM

He hits free agency and signs a huge deal with the Cardinals. I don't think he wants to leave and there aren't many teams that can pay him the kind of money he's looking for, particularly since the Yankees and Red Sox already have huge, long-term deals with their own first basemen (and they're not likely to move either one to DH to make room for Pujols even if they could afford him). Remember how Alex Rodriguez was a big-name free agent after 2007, and the Yankees were the only team that was ever seriously in the running? The Angels kicked the tires a little, but it was really a one-horse race the whole time. I think it'll work out the same way with Pujols.

Wargamer

02-10-2011, 01:10 PM

I agree with Marley23, that Albert will become a FA, but ultimately re-sign with St. Louis.

Jas09

02-10-2011, 01:12 PM

Yeah, I think Marley has the most likely outcome. Pujols (and his agent) have no real incentive to take a deal right now, knowing that the Cards certainly aren't going to offer any less in the offseason. The only thing they lose is a bit of fan sentiment. And they have the potential to gain a larger offer from another team or just from the Cards bidding themselves up.

Even a major injury likely doesn't do much to his value as a free agent (worst-case is if the elbow blows up, and TJ surgery can fix that relatively quickly).

So, yeah, that's my vote - no deal till the off-season, but then at least a 75% chance he re-signs with the Cards.

Bayard

02-10-2011, 01:15 PM

In retrospect, I should have had options for "Free Agency but re-signs with Cards" and "Free Agency and signs elsewhere." Sorry 'bout that.

Hawkeyeop

02-10-2011, 01:33 PM

He hits free agency and signs a huge deal with the Cardinals.

I agree with this, though it is interesting to think about where else he could go. The Mets and Dodgers are obvious possibilities, but need to get their ownership straightened out. The Angels could be in it, but if they got scared off by Crawford, I can't see them giving Pujols the 10 years they want. The Rangers probably have more money to spend and no real solution at first. The Blue Jays might be able to afford him with all the money off the books, but who knows if he wants to play in Canada. The Orioles probably could too for that matter. The Royals have basically no contractual commitments beyond this year, and it would let him stay in the midwest, but first base isn't really a need. The cubs and giants could use him, but both have a lot of long term contracts already. The Nats might want to make another splash if money is his top priority. The Mariners have money and desperately need offense.

Anyone else? My guess would be the Rangers would be the non-Cardinal favorite.

Jas09

02-10-2011, 01:37 PM

Anyone else? My guess would be the Rangers would be the non-Cardinal favorite.I actually would have to put my non-Cards money on the <shudder> Cubs. They have a huge need and a lot of money coming off the books soon.

Rangers and Angels seem the next most likely, I suppose.

I don't see Orioles, Jays, Royals, etc, just because one of Pujols' main complaints has been with the dedication to fielding a competitive team. Then again, we've heard that before only to see players to where the money is.

Thudlow Boink

02-10-2011, 05:42 PM

I actually would have to put my non-Cards money on the <shudder> Cubs. They have a huge need and a lot of money coming off the books soon.

Rangers and Angels seem the next most likely, I suppose.

I don't see Orioles, Jays, Royals, etc, just because one of Pujols' main complaints has been with the dedication to fielding a competitive team. Then again, we've heard that before only to see players to where the money is.From everything I know about Pujols, he's not going to give up a shot at winning more World Series rings for any amount of money.

And that pretty much rules out the Cubs. :p

Mince

02-10-2011, 06:03 PM

This won't reach FA. The Cardinals will put a horse head in Pujols' bed to force a settlement.

Bayard

02-10-2011, 06:44 PM

It's interesting to me that a plurality of those answering this highly scientific and signifiacant poll (~47% as I write) think Pujols will bend his deadline and a deal will be struck during ST or the regular season. I'd be happy if that happens, but it strikes me as the least likely outcome. I think this is the third year when AP has said "no talks after I report", and he seems serious about that condition. As much as I am in awe of AP's abilities, he has always seemed to me to be kind of an inflexible, I-said-it-I-meant-it, hardcase. I just don't see him cutting the Cards a break on the due date.

pricciar

02-10-2011, 07:23 PM

I can't believe the Cardinals haven't made this deal happen, yet. Pujols averages career year numbers. His down years put him in the top 5 MVP voting. On top of that he's a good guy that never seems to have a bad thing to say about a teammate or management. I think Pujols would be willing to give St. Louis a discount, but not an insane one. They are going to have to spend a lot of money to keep him.

I seem to be in the minority. I believe that if he becomes a free agent the Yankees will go after him. They do not need a first basemen. But, Pujols is more than just another first baseman. And, the Yankees have more money than most teams. So, I think their name will be in there. I also think the Angels would be willing to spend money for him, and maybe the Cubs, too. I am not as sure about the Red Sox, but again, Pujols is special, I wouldn't put it past them. Sadly, the Phillies won't even make the phone call. They already have too much money in Howard, and they can't eat that as easily as the Yankees could a similar deal.

Now, the Mets and the Dodgers? In a perfect world they would be in on it, too. But, I don't see either of their messes cleaned up by next year. So, I don't think there will be more than a passing interest by either team.

I have been surprised how many people have turned against him. Maybe, they are people who already disliked him. But, people are really upset he hasn't signed a contract yet. They are calling him greedy and without integrity. Of course, these are the comments on blogs. But, blogs that usually have a pretty intelligent discourse. Really weird.

Anyway. if he doesn't sign by the deadline I expect him to fly the coop. Simply because, if St. Louis won't meet his demands now. How can we expect them to meet them when there are other teams bidding and driving up the numbers?

Hennessy

02-10-2011, 10:42 PM

Marley23

02-11-2011, 06:43 AM

I seem to be in the minority. I believe that if he becomes a free agent the Yankees will go after him. They do not need a first basemen. But, Pujols is more than just another first baseman. And, the Yankees have more money than most teams. So, I think their name will be in there.
They don't have any place to put him, nevermind that this would give them four players making more than $20 million a year for at least four years (plus Jeter for several more years, and oh yes, they need a few other guys). Teixeira is going to be their first baseman for quite a while yet; he's 30 and in the third year of an eight-year contract at $22.5 million a year. A-Rod is going to be their full-time DH within a couple of years, and he's not going anywhere for a long time either. He's 35 and going into year four of a 10-year deal at about $27.5 million a year. Pujols is also 30 and he'll be looking for a contract of around eight years and money close to what A-Rod is getting.

That's another reason I think Pujols stays in St. Louis. Yes, other teams are going to be interested (it would make sense for the Angels to try, I think), but the Yankees and Sox aren't going to be involved in this one.

BobLibDem

02-11-2011, 08:09 AM

Marley23

02-11-2011, 02:36 PM

Pujols is also 30
Pujols is 31 now. Turns out it's 2011!

Peremensoe

02-11-2011, 02:48 PM

I agree with Marley23, that Albert will become a FA, but ultimately re-sign with St. Louis.

Okay, that's possible. I said I'd be shocked if he goes to FA, but I guess what I mean is I'd be shocked if he seriously entertains other offers. His value is higher in St. Louis than anywhere else, and I think both he and they know that.

Tom Scud

02-11-2011, 02:52 PM

His value is higher in St. Louis than anywhere else, and I think both he and they know that.

Gotta say, I don't see that. He's the best hitter in either league, and probably will be through at least the first half of his contract. That has serious value anywhere.

ReticulatingSplines

02-11-2011, 03:30 PM

God I hope Pujols is in it just for the money, so the Orioles can sign him. We've got money to blow - we gave Vladimir Guerrero eight million dollars, for crying out loud, when we already have a DH who hits better than he does.

Marley23

02-11-2011, 04:25 PM

Gotta say, I don't see that. He's the best hitter in either league, and probably will be through at least the first half of his contract. That has serious value anywhere.
No question he'd be valuable to anyone (although to teams like the Yankees and Sox, who have very good first basemen under contract, there's the question of how much of an upgrade he would be). But the Cardinals are built around him for there's the whole "he's our guy and we love him" thing. That matters to some players. The thing here is that Pujols probably already feels he gave the Cardinals a hometown discount on his current contract, so they're not going to get one this time.

Peremensoe

02-11-2011, 04:40 PM

His value is higher in St. Louis than anywhere else, and I think both he and they know that.
Gotta say, I don't see that.

He's more valuable to the Cardinals than any other team for marketing purposes, as a long-standing superstar with one team. It's the same dynamic that makes Derek Jeter more valuable to the Yankees than he would be anywhere else.

On-field value is well-quantified in baseball (though defensive evaluation needs work), and for unrecognized journeymen players, that is their value from the team's point of view. The calculations are more complicated with superstar players, names that people who aren't baseball nuts might recognize. These are the players whose names and images can be used to promote the team. The best of them keep bringing value for their teams even after they retire.

If you look at the way teams do their marketing, the way player-branded merch sells, the long-term image of a team and its relationship with fans (read: local broadcasting contracts and season tickets), it becomes clear that having established stars stay with one team expands off-field value even more. The Pujols and Cardinals brands enrich each other in a cumulative way that can't transfer elsewhere.

Think of Henry Aaron at the end of 1974. He was among the biggest names in baseball, had just set an all-time record. The Milwaukee Brewers could buy (trade for) a little of his shine for a couple years, and benefited from Aaron's prior association with the city. But the bulk of his star value remained in Atlanta, with the team he played twenty-one seasons for. The Braves continue to make money directly and indirectly from Aaron to this day, and happily pay him a sinecure salary to put on a cap a couple times a year and maintain the association.*

It occurs to me that the teams that paid the big money for the last contracts with brands like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens aren't going to get their money's worth on those.

* Aaron's actual playing contracts, of course, were vastly smaller than what an equivalent star would be paid today, though Aaron was for a time the best-paid player in the game. The point here is the accumulation and non-transference of the intangible star value.

Mince

02-11-2011, 05:06 PM

I don't see the Yankees making a move for Pujols. Tex has first base nailed down for years and he seems to fit in very well with the team's chemistry. He may not have Pujols' offensive numbers but I just don't see the upgrade in offense to be worth the increase in payroll.

They can make a move for Pujols if they DH him. Pujols would be a significant upgrade over last year's aggregate Yankee DH (http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/nyy/seasontype/2/split/86/new-york-yankees) and the DH whom they used the most last year (and the most successful), Marcus Thames, is gone. They probably won't make a move for Pujols (I'm sure Pujols wants to field), but I don't think Teixeira would be a limiting factor.

Omniscient

02-12-2011, 05:51 PM

He's going to the Cubs. For spite.

Mince

02-12-2011, 06:01 PM

He's going to the Cubs. For spite.

Don't tease me bro. I could imagine an incentive (and desire) to go to the Cubs; if he did and they won the World Series, ostensibly because of him, he'd be the all-time hero of Chicago and Cubs fans.

Omniscient

02-12-2011, 06:27 PM

Don't tease me bro. I could imagine an incentive (and desire) to go to the Cubs; if he did and they won the World Series, ostensibly because of him, he'd be the all-time hero of Chicago and Cubs fans.

Plus it'd be some measure of retribution for Lou Brock. If I'm the Cubs I at least make sure to bid the price up far enough to financially handcuff the Cards for years to come.

Bayard

02-14-2011, 11:52 AM

The deadline has been pushed back a day (http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_bec1a21a-3853-11e0-b0d5-0017a4a78c22.html). Stan The Man is getting the Presidential Medal of Freedom on Tuesday, and the club and Pujols say they don't want to distract from Stan's day with contract news. I think this is a nice move. Stan's not going to be with us much longer, and he should get to be the center of Cardinal Fandom's attention one more time. Good for Stan!

As for the negotiations -- the (presumably) bad news for Cards fans is scheduled to be delivered at 11:00 Central Time on Wednesday.

Tom Scud

02-14-2011, 12:07 PM

He's more valuable to the Cardinals than any other team for marketing purposes, as a long-standing superstar with one team. It's the same dynamic that makes Derek Jeter more valuable to the Yankees than he would be anywhere else.

...

It occurs to me that the teams that paid the big money for the last contracts with brands like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens aren't going to get their money's worth on those.

See, I still don't buy it. Jeter is a different case from Pujols because Jeter is clearly in the fading years of his career; he's still a good player, and he might have one more MVP-style season in him, but that isn't the way to bet. His nostalgia value for Yankee fans is more important than anything he's likely to do with the rest of his career.

Pujols would be a huge part of the marketing for whatever team signed him (even the Yankees); depending on how he did, he could end up as a legend for his new team, although he would probably remain identified with the Cardinals after his career. I just don't see the marketing angle as having an actual dollar value to either Pujols or the Cardinals beyond the fact that the Cardinals would be a much weaker team without him.

I'd say the ultimate reaction to players' team-switching is much more likely to be driven by their personalities, relations with the media, and general PR abilities. Joe Morgan played the last five years of his career for four different non-Reds teams, and played less than half his career games in Cincinatti; he's not any less identified with the Reds for all that.

kunilou

02-14-2011, 03:39 PM

Plus it'd be some measure of retribution for Lou Brock. If I'm the Cubs I at least make sure to bid the price up far enough to financially handcuff the Cards for years to come.

The Cubs being the Cubs, Pujols would sign for immense bucks and, like Broglio, wake up two weeks later unable to lift his arm.

Mince

02-14-2011, 04:11 PM

The Cubs being the Cubs, Pujols would sign for immense bucks and, like Broglio, wake up two weeks later unable to lift his arm.

Or he'd remain healthy but, for the first time in his career, perform badly, .236 with 18 HR, 68 RBI, and the Cubs (again) contend with the Pirates for upside down first place. Then they'd trade him to Kansas City just before the deadline for a set of minor leaguers.

BobLibDem

02-15-2011, 07:07 AM

They can make a move for Pujols if they DH him. Pujols would be a significant upgrade over last year's aggregate Yankee DH (http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/nyy/seasontype/2/split/86/new-york-yankees) and the DH whom they used the most last year (and the most successful), Marcus Thames, is gone. They probably won't make a move for Pujols (I'm sure Pujols wants to field), but I don't think Teixeira would be a limiting factor.

That would be possible since the Yanks' #1 DH this year may well be Posada. I just can't see spending that much for a DH. If you're going to spend that kind of money, I think you need to get a player who fields a position that you're weak in.

Marley23

02-15-2011, 08:26 AM

That would be possible since the Yanks' #1 DH this year may well be Posada.
He's definitely going to be the primary DH. (http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2011/01/30/2011-01-30_mask_transit.html) The Yankees still have Cervelli and two catching prospects, and they signed what's left of Russell Martin in the offseason. Posada is going to make around $13 million this year as their DH. He's going to be 40 this season. I don't think they expect him back next year, but any way you look at it, they have players and money committed to DH (since they have A-Rod under contract for a long time and don't expect him to play at third that much longer) and Teixeira at first base. And as great a hitter as Pujols is, you're giving away some of his value if you DH him, which makes it that much harder to justify his salary.

Hawkeyeop

02-15-2011, 09:04 PM

I don't see either the competitive or marketing as angles to sign with the Cardinals.

The Cardinals have been a very good team over recent history, but a lot that reason is Albert Pujols. Pujols has been an 8 win player, add that to most teams and they will be competitive. I don't see much of a difference between say the Blue Jays and Cardinals minus Pujols. This is also going to be a 8-10 year contract, so current talent isn't as important as future talent. The Cardinals have limited young talent, a weak system, and are in a small market. There are many teams I'd rather sign with if I wished to win than the Cardinals.

Marketingwise I assume most Cardinals who want Pujols jerseys already have them. Short term, every other team could make revenue from Pujols than the Cardinals. That isn't really a big issue though. Pujols is a star and will be a star everywhere. Simply put stars are more valuable in bigger markets. That is why the yankees payroll is so high. It isn't that they have more money to spend, but rather that winning gives them a much greater return than it would for the pirates or cardinals, so they have a greater incentive to sign star players. As for the franchise icon, you don't have look past Griffey to see Pujols can still be a Cardinal for life if he wishes.