Does Haley Barbour have a serious chance of becoming president?

[joebuck20]

Interesting profile of him from the New York Times yesterday:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/22/us/politics/22barbour.html?_r=1

Personally, I don't see it happening. Let's face it, politics these days is as much about image as anything else, regardless of how much we would like to pretend otherwise. And some guy who looks and sounds like Boss Hogg will never gain much traction with the electorate, even in today's GOP.

Still, though, even if by some miracle he did manage to wrangle the nomination, his background as a corporate lobbyist and checkered racial history will come back to haunt him in a big way.

[pseudotriton ruber ruber]

Joke candidate.

[jsgoddess]

In some pictures, he looks like William Shatner, only less svelte. I don't think this is probably a good thing.

[Oakminster]

Haley Barbour is a legit candidate, and I think he's going to be your next POTUS. He's got the stroke within the party, he's got the charisma--not a lot, but enough, and he's got street cred in crisis management after Katrina. Don't underestimate the man. He's a lot smarter than he looks. Liberals and yankees tend to discount Southern intellect, thinking that because we talk slow, we must think slow--that is not the case.

[pseudotriton ruber ruber]

Haley Barbour is a legit candidate, and I think he's going to be your next POTUS. He's got the stroke within the party, he's got the charisma--not a lot, but enough, and he's got street cred in crisis management after Katrina. Don't underestimate the man. He's a lot smarter than he looks. Liberals and yankees tend to discount Southern intellect, thinking that because we talk slow, we must think slow--that is not the case.

How can we turn this into a bet?

[joebuck20]

Haley Barbour is a legit candidate, and I think he's going to be your next POTUS. He's got the stroke within the party, he's got the charisma--not a lot, but enough, and he's got street cred in crisis management after Katrina. Don't underestimate the man. He's a lot smarter than he looks. Liberals and yankees tend to discount Southern intellect, thinking that because we talk slow, we must think slow--that is not the case.

I'm not denigrating the guy's smarts. You don't become a well-regarded corporate lobbyist by being an illiterate rube.

I'm just saying that the guy embodies pretty much every negative GOP stereotype there is these days - former corporate lobbyist, who was in bed with the tobacco industry, portly looking, political insider, worked for Nixon's campaign back in the day, made a number of questionable remarks about race.

I'm sure the guy is plenty smart, but in today's cutthroat, image-driven political environment all those things I mentioned are going to present major hurdles if this guy plans to wage a serious campaign.

[lisacurl]

He has about as much chance of being elected POTUS as does Buddy Roemer (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703566504576202600977712880.html).

[Oakminster]

How can we turn this into a bet?

Well, my prediction is there for all to see. I'm not inclined to back it with a wager. Experience has shown that I'm not very good at prognostication.

[jsgoddess]

He's a lot smarter than he looks. Liberals and yankees tend to discount Southern intellect, thinking that because we talk slow, we must think slow--that is not the case.

Well, you can say it's not the case, but since voting isn't necessarily based on reality but rather perception, how much of the voting populace has the perception?

He can't win on Republican votes alone. No one can do that.

[pseudotriton ruber ruber]

Well, my prediction is there for all to see. I'm not inclined to back it with a wager. Experience has shown that I'm not very good at prognostication.

Shit. I coulda used the money.

[Skammer]

He's not a joke, but he is unlikely to develop the national appeal he would need to be a top-tier candidate.

[Captain Lance Murdoch]

He's too fat. He's been trying to drop weight fast for the election (which shows that he is running) but he doesn't have the "look" of a president and that matters.

Throw in his tobacco, foreign government lobbying, racist remarks, low name recognition and so on and you have somebody who isn't likely to win. His only saving grace is that the field is so weak that even what would normally be vanity candidates are going to get serious looks this time around. nevertheless, he look like someone running for the VP slot.

[gonzomax]

I'm not denigrating the guy's smarts. You don't become a well-regarded corporate lobbyist by being an illiterate rube.

I'm just saying that the guy embodies pretty much every negative GOP stereotype there is these days - former corporate lobbyist, who was in bed with the tobacco industry, portly looking, political insider, worked for Nixon's campaign back in the day, made a number of questionable remarks about race.

I'm sure the guy is plenty smart, but in today's cutthroat, image-driven political environment all those things I mentioned are going to present major hurdles if this guy plans to wage a serious campaign.

You have to have connections to be a lobbyist. You have open to doors to get your viewpoints through. I don't know how smart you have to be.

[pseudotriton ruber ruber]

the key word is "serious"--of course he has a chance. Hell, YOU have a chance, you dumb motherfucker with a drinking problem and a slew of unpaid debts and three ex-wives and two bankruptcies. What you and Barbour have in common is a Chinaman's chance of being elected President.

[Oakminster]

People said similar things about the chances of the junior senator from Illinois this time last cycle.

[pseudotriton ruber ruber]

Dumb motherfucking people did. I said he was my top choice first time I was asked. I can find the thread for you, if you like.

[Chronos]

With Obama, people said he had two significant handicaps to overcome: His color and his name. Well, also his level of experience, but that's cured easily enough, and is no barrier to "he'll be President eventually". With this guy, there's a much longer list to overcome.

[RTFirefly]

People said similar things about the chances of the junior senator from Illinois this time last cycle.Oh, gimme a freakin' break.

The Sunday after the 2006 midterms, when the Dems regained control of both houses of Congress, I opened the Washington Post to the Outlook section, to see what their take on that rather significant change was.

You know what was plastered across the top half of the front page of the Outlook section?

Hillary v. Obama

This was two years, minus a few days, before the 2008 election. And already, he was regarded, at least by the inside-the-Beltway press corps, as one of the two prime contenders for the Democratic nomination.

And if you go to the PollingReport archives (http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08dem2.htm), you will notice that, at this point in the last cycle, Obama was already running a fairly strong second to Hillary in the polls for the Democratic nomination. While so far in this cycle, Barbour has yet to score above 3% in any poll showing on PollingReport, and usually does worse. He's down in the white noise.

In short, it's no comparison.

[RTFirefly]

Liberals and yankees tend to discount Southern intellect, thinking that because we talk slow, we must think slow--that is not the case.I've never heard the guy speak, AFAIK. But he sounds plenty stupid in print. If his accent makes him sound even dumber to most ears when you hear him talk, he's dead meat.

But plenty of it - maybe after he drops out, we can have a big Hogg roast to celebrate!

[joebuck20]

Dumb motherfucking people did. I said he was my top choice first time I was asked. I can find the thread for you, if you like.

I voted for Obama, but in Oakminster's defense, I think if you had mentioned even five years ago that our next president would be some guy whose last name rhymed with Osama and whose middle name was Hussein, many folks would have been stunned.

Hell, I was one of those skeptics who was saying, "There's no way this guy's going to become president. He may be smart, but that name will just turn off too many people and be a ripe target for his opponents."

[joebuck20]

I voted for Obama, but in Oakminster's defense, I think if you had mentioned even five years ago that our next president would be some guy whose last name rhymed with Osama and whose middle name was Hussein, many folks would have been stunned.

Hell, I was one of those skeptics who was saying, "There's no way this guy's going to become president. He may be smart, but that name will just turn off too many people and be a ripe target for his opponents."

I should also add that it speaks of volumes about Obama's savvy and the effectiveness of his political organization that the name didn't prove too big a handicap, because his opponents did, and still do, use it as a line of attack.

It doesn't appear to me though that Barbour has the savvy and appeal that Obama did in '08.

[jsgoddess]

And if you go to the PollingReport archives (http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08dem2.htm), you will notice that, at this point in the last cycle, Obama was already running a fairly strong second to Hillary in the polls for the Democratic nomination. While so far in this cycle, Barbour has yet to score above 3% in any poll showing on PollingReport, and usually does worse. He's down in the white noise.

In short, it's no comparison.

Yeah, the election is next year, and at this point Haley Barbour is scoring Dennis Kucinich or Joe Biden numbers.

[Cyberhwk]

IIRC, someone here on the Dope actually called President Obama minutes after he finished his keynote at the 2004 DNC.

[miss elizabeth]

Lots of people said Obama would be president (at least some day) after his 2004 speech.

As far as Barbour goes; as a Mississippian, I hate the guy. Of course, I am a liberal Mississippian, if that matters. The government of this state is utter shit, and he is a corrupt asshole to boot. The idea of him as POTUS makes me want to puke. And his accent makes him sound like an idiot, whether he is or not. Sorry, Oakminster, but I'm allowed to say it because I am a Southerner. Some Southern accents are lovely, his ain't.

[jsgoddess]

IIRC, someone here on the Dope actually called President Obama minutes after he finished his keynote at the 2004 DNC.

I think Diogenes called it fairly early. I think.

[RTFirefly]

Lots of people said Obama would be president (at least some day) after his 2004 speech. Hell yeah, I waved my wife into the TV room mid-speech for exactly that reason: he was going to be President someday. That was an easy call.

Now if someone had told me, "you're right, he's going to be President in four and a half years," I would have told them to get real - no way he'd be getting there that fast. Someday, sure, but not the very next election cycle. That's crazy talk, man!

Apparently reality didn't take my opinion on that part very seriously. :)

[Elendil's Heir]

In some pictures, he looks like William Shatner, only less svelte. I don't think this is probably a good thing.

I had the same thought.

For any bets on Obama's 2012 chances, or for those confident they've found a GOP candidate to unseat him, see here: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=598342

[jsgoddess]

I had the same thought.

On the other hand, if there is some complicated diplomatic thing, I guess he could come into the room while the Priceline Negotiator song plays.

[Really Not All That Bright]

IIRC, someone here on the Dope actually called President Obama minutes after he finished his keynote at the 2004 DNC.
Yeah, but people here also predicted that Howard Dean would win in '04.

[foolsguinea]

the key word is "serious"--of course he has a chance. Hell, YOU have a chance, you dumb motherfucker with a drinking problem and a slew of unpaid debts and three ex-wives and two bankruptcies. What you and Barbour have in common is a Chinaman's chance of being elected President.Ooh, is a Chinaman running? I could go for a Chinaman.

[RTFirefly]

Ooh, is a Chinaman running? I could go for a Chinaman.

Why not? We've got a Kenyan in the White House right now!

[Walmarticus]

Ooh, is a Chinaman running? I could go for a Chinaman.

Chinaman is not the preferred nomenclature.

[Elendil's Heir]

Chinaman is not the preferred nomenclature.

What the fuck you talkin' about?

[Diogenes the Cynic]

He's not a serious contender, no. he has no crossover appeal to moderates, and he's not crazy enough for the primary base. He's also an asshole, and he will read as an asshole if enough light is put on him.

I've been predicting since day one that the nominee will be Romney, and I still feel that. If there's a dark horse, it's Jeb Bush. I think he could get the nomination, but he hasn't shown any indication that he's interested in it. I suspect he's waiting until 2016 since he's knows that Obama's reelection is a forgone conclusion and the Dems don't have an obvious successor yet.

[Diogenes the Cynic]

What the fuck you talkin' about?
Asian-American, please.

[Zakalwe]

Asian-American, please.Saying that 'he doesn't have an Asian-American's chance of getting elected President' just sounds stupid. Plus Asian-American is much more inclusive than Chinaman and thus is not synonymous.

[BobLibDem]

The guy has more baggage than a 747. He has a confederate flag in his office signed by Jeff Davis? Come on, do you think you can get elected without ANY minority vote? I have to agree that the nomination is Romney's to lose, and the business suit Republicans aren't going to let the Teahadists nominate a True Believer only to go down in flames.

[Chronos]

Quoth Diogenes:
I've been predicting since day one that the nominee will be Romney, and I still feel that. If there's a dark horse, it's Jeb Bush.I agree with you about Romney, but I think that Mitch Daniels is a much more likely dark horse than anyone with the Bush name. Yeah, yeah, he's not his brother nor his father, but that's still going to be a huge hill for him to climb.

[Elendil's Heir]

...the business suit Republicans aren't going to let the Teahadists nominate a True Believer only to go down in flames.

Did you make up "Teahadists"? I like it!

The Asian-American thing reminds of me of a possibly-apocryphal story that the Boston Globe once had a macro for all of its reporters' word processors that changed any use of the word "black" to "African-American." Supposedly, a few weeks later, a headline slipped through that read, "Budget for next fiscal year has state back in the African-American."

[joebuck20]

Haley Barbour will not run:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/26/us/politics/26barbour.html?_r=1&hp


In a telephone call to supporters, followed by a brief statement, Mr. Barbour said he lacked the “absolute fire in the belly,” that a candidacy would require. He apologized for flirting with a presidential bid over the last six months and then backing away, but said he had concluded that he was not ready to dedicate himself to the “all-consuming effort” a campaign would require.

[appleciders]

He's 63. I guess he could run in the 2016 cycle, but he'd be what, 69 on taking office? That's not insuperable but it is a handicap.

[Qin Shi Huangdi]

He's 63. I guess he could run in the 2016 cycle, but he'd be what, 69 on taking office? That's not insuperable but it is a handicap.

Reagan did it. So did William Henry harrison.

[Captain Amazing]

Harrison died a month in, so I don't know that he's the best example. I'll give you Reagan.

[user_hostile]

But wasn't president Reagan already in the early stages of Alzheimer's?

[Captain Amazing]

There's some speculation he was at the end of his second term. I don't think anybody asserts he was when he became President.

[Diogenes the Cynic]

He was showing signs before his 2nd term. His first debate with Mondale was painful to watch.

[jsgoddess]

Reagan looked healthy. Not young, but healthy. Barbour looks like a stereotypical heart attack waiting to happen. I'm not talking about their actual health, but the appearance.

[pseudotriton ruber ruber]

Well, my prediction is there for all to see. I'm not inclined to back it with a wager. Experience has shown that I'm not very good at prognostication.

So we've got that settled.

[Elendil's Heir]

CNN.com discusses the impact on the rest of the likely GOP field by Barbour not running: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/25/what-does-barbours-exit-mean-for-the-gop-race/

[Whoo69]

I really pity Haley Barbour. While I am not one of those childish folks on the Left who's obsessed with race and calls anyone even remotely 'wrong' on race relations or 'insensitive' "racist", I think Barbour is truly conflicted, deep down. He may be a little ignorant due to his upbringing, but he's trying damn hard (or at least it appears that way) to be more colorblind and atone for his sins of the past (whatever they may be). Maybe the guy's just a good con artist, but his demeanor certainly doesn't seem indicative of someone who's a big racist, especially one who would dare join the KKK. I think he also just wants to forget racist history from his and other surrounding communities and pretend like he and his friends were all big integrationists, partly for political gamesmanship but also because he wants to do the right thing and not bring up the shameful actions and Jim Crow, leaving them in the past and moving forward.

Even if he is a little racist, so what. Unless he tries to enact a really Jim Crow-like law or commits a hate crime or says something really bad in public (like "nigger"), I'm not gonna hold it against him. As bad as it may be, we all have a right to be biased or colorblind deep down because of the First Amendment, and as long as it doesn't affect others adversely, it's no skin off my back.

[Merijeek]

I really pity Haley Barbour. While I am not one of those childish folks on the Left who's obsessed with race and calls anyone even remotely 'wrong' on race relations or 'insensitive' "racist", I think Barbour is truly conflicted, deep down. He may be a little ignorant due to his upbringing, but he's trying damn hard (or at least it appears that way) to be more colorblind and atone for his sins of the past (whatever they may be).

Pretending racism isn't happening (or didn't happen in Jim Crow fucking Mississippi) doesn't make him color blind. It makes him blind to stuff that he doesn't like because, in this enlightened age, it make him and his look bad.

-Joe

[Farmer Jane]

I think he's a real player. And as far as corporate lobbying goes, I'm pretty sure a former Senator from New York turned Secretary of State was a corporate lawyer - not so far of a stretch. (:

I rather enjoy this guy's honesty, should it be proved true. I'm going home in a few weeks for a visit. I'm curious to listen to him (in person Iowa meets are 100000x than the news) even if I'm not a Republican.

[Merijeek]

I think he's a real player. And as far as corporate lobbying goes, I'm pretty sure a former Senator from New York turned Secretary of State was a corporate lawyer - not so far of a stretch. (:

I rather enjoy this guy's honesty, should it be proved true. I'm going home in a few weeks for a visit. I'm curious to listen to him (in person Iowa meets are 100000x than the news) even if I'm not a Republican.

To what honesty are you referring?

-Joe

[Simplicio]

To what honesty are you referring?

-Joe

And who? Just to reitierate the thread, Barbour isn't running for President, and probably won't be doing anything in Iowa anytime soon.

[Implicit]

Barbour hinted that he wanted Mitch Daniels to run, that's not happening. Barbour's endorsement is up for grabs and all the wannabes will be vying for it and the donors that go along with it.

[Lord Feldon]

I'm glad he's not running. I wouldn't say I enjoy his honesty (since I don't really enjoy it and it's not really honesty), but I do find myself almost getting sucked into whatever little parallel world he's creating when he speaks. He has this odd charming quality and I think he would have been more formidable than the skeletons in his closet make it seem.

[Farmer Jane]

To what honesty are you referring?

-Joe

In which he talks about himself.

If he runs and comes through IA again, I'd like to see him. Nothing wrong with Obama keeping on his toes.

[Merijeek]

In which he talks about himself.

If he runs and comes through IA again, I'd like to see him. Nothing wrong with Obama keeping on his toes.

Boss Hogg ain't the one to do it.

He's honest when he talks about himself? The part where he says he didn't seen any evidence of racism in Mississippi in the 60's?

-Joe

[Really Not All That Bright]

Maybe his eyesight is poor.