Jay Leno is doing OK [Archive] - Straight Dope Message Board

Simplicio

04-16-2011, 06:13 PM

I think the only prediction I made was that Leno would never get back the ratings he had previous to the Conan kurfuffle, as people watch latenight more out of habit then because its funny, irregardless of the host, and that the disruption would lead them to greener pastures. Googling, I think I was right, though I can't find raw numbers so its a little hard to tell.

The real victor appears to be Nightline (http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2011/04/14/%E2%80%9Cnightline%E2%80%9D-is-1-among-total-viewers-for-the-7th-straight-week/89502), which seems to have gotten some of the audience that previously watched the latenight shows.

astorian

04-16-2011, 06:16 PM

Simplicio

04-16-2011, 06:21 PM

For the record, here's what I predicted (http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=12017060&postcount=581):

I think shows like the Tonight Show rely a lot on momentum. People watch it as much out of habit as anything else, and if they stopped watching when Conan took over and didn't watch Leno's new show, it doesn't seem implausible that they'll simply never come back.

I think thats largely what happened, about a million former Leno fans went over to go watch the Daily Show and Nightline. So between this and predicting President Kerry, my Straightdope oracle ratio looks like about 1/2.

DSeid

04-16-2011, 06:21 PM

Recent numbers in a graph. (http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2011/04/14/late-night-tv-ratings-week-tonight-show-late-show-daily-show-even-conan-nightline-down/89449)

What numbers had the Tonight Show gotten say five years ago?

Nzinga, Seated

04-16-2011, 07:05 PM

I am a huge fan of Conan* but I knew people were talking crazy by predicting Leno's demise. It was raw emotion talking for them, I tells ya.

I mean, imagine thinking no big stars would go on Leno's show anymore. Hahaaa! I remember bup even nearly bet me about it.

I bet Leno's poison now - he's going to have a helluva time getting guests. Some will be forced by their agents/the contracts in their movies, but stars with any leverage are going to avoid the Tonight Show.

I am so certain that this isn't true, that I am willing to place a wager.

Name any big name star you choose, and we will bet 20 dollars on it. We can set up time limits or...something. I'm certain you are wrong.

I don't know how to set it up either, but...Tina Fey.

I have no idea if Fey has done his show, but I think we can safely put to bed the idea that he is 'poison'.

*I mean, a big fan in that I love him and hate Leno. Not a big fan as in I actually have bothered to watch his show. I haven't.

YogSosoth

04-16-2011, 07:14 PM

For me personally, I would always watch the Tonight Show (with whoever's hosting) for the opening monologue and the first sketch. I haven't stopped that, but now I watch Conan for the same reason

The show that's really suffered for me is the Daily Show, as I no longer watch the whole thing anymore

Mahaloth

04-16-2011, 07:21 PM

Remember last year after Conan was axed and Leno got his old job back there were people who claimed:

No big name stars would go on Leno
He would be crushed in the ratings by Conan , Letterman, etc.
He would not last long

Where are all those people who said that now?

I believe you, but do you have a cite that people claimed these things?

aceplace57

04-16-2011, 07:26 PM

Jay is kicking rating ass.
UNIVERSAL CITY, Calif. – April 14, 2011 – NBC’s late-night lineup has delivered ratings wins for the week of April 4-8, with “The Tonight Show with Jay Leno” finishing #1 in viewers 18-49 and total viewers versus CBS’s “Late Show with David Letterman” and ABC’s combination of “Nightline” and “Jimmy Kimmel Live.” At 12:35 a.m. ET, “Late Night with Jimmy Fallon” also ranked #1 in viewers 18-49 and total viewers over CBS’s “Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson.”
Jay Leno has ranked #1 for 27 of 29 weeks this season versus “Late Show” in viewers 18-49 and total viewers. Jimmy Fallon has ranked #1 versus “Late Late Show” in viewers 18-49 for 29 of 29 weeks this season. In total viewers, Jimmy has won 17 of the last 21 weeks versus “Late Late Show.”
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2011/04/14/jay-leno-and-jimmy-fallon-generate-1-finishes-vs-abc-and-cbs-competition-for-the-late-night-week-of-april-4-8/89506

enalzi

04-16-2011, 07:27 PM

This is a good graph:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2011/01/27/tonight-show-ratings-final-score-conan-obrien-22-jay-leno-4/80436

Basically, Jay isn't doing any better than Conan was doing. I don't think anyone was really expecting Conan on TBS to do better than Leno. In general cable ratings are lower, and he's doing pretty good for where he is. I would say the biggest problem is that he's on directly opposite The Daily Show, which is more popular and shares a lot of the same viewer base. Notice in that chart above, when TDS took a dive because they were in reruns, Conan's ratings jumped back up.

Miller

04-16-2011, 07:32 PM

I'm not surprised that Leno's doing okay. The public appetite for genial mediocrity is bottomless.

Mahaloth

04-16-2011, 08:28 PM

I'm not surprised that Leno's doing okay. The public appetite for genial mediocrity is bottomless.

I still contend Jay was seriously funny at one point in his career. It's sad to seem him fall so far. He's one of the best funny storytellers I've ever heard, but he mainly just does cheap sex jokes and lame celebrity jokes now.

Bijou Drains

04-16-2011, 09:33 PM

I believe you, but do you have a cite that people claimed these things?

Just look above in this thread, the guy said Leno would be "poison" to big stars.

I can never figure out why people who like one of these guys have to hate the others. These guys are all good hosts , it's just a matter of which one you like better. But lately it seems some Letterman fans say he is not good any more and should retire. If they were not good hosts they would not be on the air, TV networks don't keep shows with bad ratings on the air , they need to make money.

Miller

04-16-2011, 10:00 PM

Just look above in this thread, the guy said Leno would be "poison" to big stars.

I can never figure out why people who like one of these guys have to hate the others. These guys are all good hosts , it's just a matter of which one you like better. But lately it seems some Letterman fans say he is not good any more and should retire. If they were not good hosts they would not be on the air, TV networks don't keep shows with bad ratings on the air , they need to make money.

"Successful" is not the same thing as "good." Not all good artists are successful. Not all successful artists are good.

Tim R. Mortiss

04-17-2011, 12:27 AM

I'm not surprised that Leno's doing okay. The public appetite for genial mediocrity is bottomless.

I don't disagree with you, but I'd rephrase that. Your first sentence is fine, but I'd change the second to, "Leno has a perfect grasp of what the public wants, and is willing and able to deliver it."

Miller

04-17-2011, 12:29 AM

Tomato, tomahto.

Stink Fish Pot

04-17-2011, 01:06 AM

What I find strange is that Conan's fans worked so hard to get him back on the air, then pretty much stopped watching him once he WAS back on the air.

Many Conan fans like the IDEA of Conan more than they like watching him.

Maybe "Team Coco" and the continual advertising campaign in which Conan really stooped to some pathetic levels, turned some people off.

I've watched him exactly once on TBS. I don't care for the show, and I did like his show on NBC before he moved into the Tonight Show slot. I just don't think Conan works well in this time slot, and I'm not sure why.

I felt the same way about Letterman (great following Carson), but his CBS show falls flat for me. And George Lopez always missed the mark for me as well. I don't like being shouted at during the first half hour of any show, especially at that time of the day.

As for what has happened to Leno, I'm not sure. I still enjoy watching his show and monologue, but the jokes have much less wit to them. That may be a product of the audience and the demographics of that audience, instead of him. He appeals to an older audience, and I think that's more an issue with the time slot, not the performer. My believe is that Letterman would have also had to alter his show to work on NBC on the tonight show.

I think that's why Conan didn't work. The crowd that watched Conan (and before him, Letterman), were younger and enjoyed a different type of humor. Moving that same show into a different time slot has not worked. I think NBC's Tonight Show will never pluck a host from one of the later shows ever again because the audience just doesn't want that guy at 11:30.

Justin_Bailey

04-17-2011, 01:39 AM

No big name stars would go on Leno

I realize there's no way to objectively measure this, but I still contend that the stars who've appeared on Leno are of a lower quality than the guests for Letterman or Conan. To use the example cited above, Tina Fey appeared on Letterman on Friday and will sit down with Conan on Tuesday. She has not been on Leno all year and isn't scheduled for an appearance anytime soon.

enalzi

04-17-2011, 01:48 AM

I'll post this again because I think it was just ignored:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2011/01/27/tonight-show-ratings-final-score-conan-obrien-22-jay-leno-4/80436

Really, it's silly to look at this whole thing thinking that Jay is doing amazingly while Conan is doing crappy.

First off, Jay went from being the undisputed king of late night to now competing with Letterman on a week to week basis for second place against Nightline. Meanwhile Conan has settled to about a .6 rating, which is pretty decent for cable. Anyone who thought Conan would beat Leno in the ratings now is indeed a fool. Even if you moved Leno to cable his ratings would plummet.

The fact of the matter is all tv ratings are down these days because of all the other sources. And it's going to affect shows with a younger crowd more.

Bijou Drains

04-17-2011, 07:07 AM

Conan got what, around $20 mil when he got axed? And we were supposed to feel bad for him? TV shows are canceled all the time and people don't get a dime when the show is over.

So nobody remembers Tina Fey on Leno and that's proof he can't draw big names? That's pretty funny.

Last week he had Jamie Foxx, Kristen Bell, Diane Lane, Tyler Perry and John Travolta.
This week its Matt Damon, Robert Pattinson, and Bradley Cooper.
Early April it was Tracy Morgan, Emma Roberts, Gary Busey, David Arquette and Neve Campbell

MsWhatsit

04-17-2011, 08:48 AM

Justin_Bailey

04-17-2011, 10:01 AM

I am not really invested in this either way but I read through the whole thread and would like the official answer to whether Tina Fey has been on Leno in the last year or what. Can we get a cite on this?

I'm not sure how official it is, but Tina Fey's IMDB listing doesn't list a Tonight Show With Jay Leno appearance since 2006. She did appear on The Jay Leno Show in 2009. Not official, but since Leno's guest searcher is broken, it's the best I've got.

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0275486/#self

She's also not included in the Wikipedia episode guide for the show. Again, not definitive, but pretty much the best we can get.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_The_Tonight_Show_with_Jay_Leno_episodes

MsWhatsit

04-17-2011, 10:37 AM

Thanks, Justin.

Cat Whisperer

04-17-2011, 01:09 PM

I'm in the middle of reading this book - The War For Late Night: When Leno Went Early and Television Went Crazy (http://www.amazon.com/War-Late-Night-Early-Television/dp/067002208X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1303063501&sr=1-1), and it seems to be an in-depth look at what went on and what is going on with all the machinations that happened between Conan and Jay. One thing I'm learning (which is no surprise) is that a lot of what happened was caused by network execs.

Justin_Bailey

04-17-2011, 01:28 PM

Bijou Drains

04-17-2011, 07:04 PM

Justin when I read those reviews on Amazon I don't see that Leno or Conan are painted as bad in that book. Or did you read a different book?

Maybe Jay or his producers need to bow and scrape more for Tina Fey to show up, I'm sure they lie awake at night worried about why she is not on the show.

Justin_Bailey

04-17-2011, 07:32 PM

Justin when I read those reviews on Amazon I don't see that Leno or Conan are painted as bad in that book. Or did you read a different book?

Conan is portrayed as a tad naive, but Jay actually pouts and cries about being "fired" and later made jokes on air that he planned to go to ABC at 11:30 after his contract ended. Maybe he's not the exact asshole Conan's fans painted him as, but he comes across as the "bad guy."

Maybe Jay or his producers need to bow and scrape more for Tina Fey to show up, I'm sure they lie awake at night worried about why she is not on the show.

Tina Fey is the star of one of NBC's signature shows. I find it very telling that she's appeared everywhere to promote her memoir except for Leno.

Bijou Drains

04-17-2011, 07:46 PM

I tend to think that one person allegedly not liking Leno is not a big deal, but I guess that's all the Conan fans have to hang their hat on.

BTW, Leno was fired from 2 shows, Tonight and the Leno show. That's 1 more (100% more) than Conan right? :) And I don't think he got $20 mil for being fired did he?

Justin_Bailey

04-17-2011, 07:50 PM

BTW, Leno was fired from 2 shows, Tonight and the Leno show. That's 1 more (100% more) than Conan right? :) And I don't think he got $20 mil for being fired did he?

Leno was never fired from The Tonight Show.

And if NBC actually would have had to give him $60 million or so for cancelling The Jay Leno Show, but they worked out a deal where they fired Conan instead and gave Leno back the Tonight Show.

Did you read the book? Regardless of what the reviews said, I don't think it painted Leno in a good light at all.

handsomeharry

04-17-2011, 09:47 PM

And I don't think he got $20 mil for being fired did he?

No, he just got the Tonight Show.

Best wishes,
hh

Cat Whisperer

04-18-2011, 11:38 AM

Yeah, it was all about contracts and breaches of contracts and who got what if they did what (haven't finished the book yet, but I can see that writing on the wall - Conan had a contract that would have paid him out massively if he didn't get The Tonight Show in 2010 - all asses are firmly covered at all times).

kunilou

04-18-2011, 12:00 PM

Tina Fey is the star of one of NBC's signature shows. I find it very telling that she's appeared everywhere to promote her memoir except for Leno.

Tina Fey lives and works in New York. Saturday Night Live is based in New York, as is Letterman, as is Jimmy Fallon. Do you also find it telling that she hasn't appeared on Jimmy Kimmel since 2007? Or could it be that maybe she schedules her trips to the West Coast to do what she has to do and then goes back home?

Justin_Bailey

04-18-2011, 12:13 PM

Tina Fey lives and works in New York. Saturday Night Live is based in New York, as is Letterman, as is Jimmy Fallon. Do you also find it telling that she hasn't appeared on Jimmy Kimmel since 2007? Or could it be that maybe she schedules her trips to the West Coast to do what she has to do and then goes back home?

She's appearing on Conan tomorrow. Which I already mentioned once in this thread.

joebuck20

04-18-2011, 12:34 PM

Conan is portrayed as a tad naive, but Jay actually pouts and cries about being "fired" and later made jokes on air that he planned to go to ABC at 11:30 after his contract ended. Maybe he's not the exact asshole Conan's fans painted him as, but he comes across as the "bad guy."

That's kind of surprising. A Vanity Fair article I read a couple of months ago portrays the opposite.

While Conan did come off as the good guy in that piece, he also seemed really pouty and pissy about the whole affair, going so far as to tell a network exec "What does Leno have on you guys?" And Jay, though he doesn't come off smelling like a rose in the story, just seemed sort of oblivious about what was at stake. His biggest mistake, it seems, was taking NBC at their word that Conan was cool with whatever plans they had in mind, which of course turned out not to be the case at all.

Not saying that what you wrote didn't happen, but it's just quite different from other accounts I've read.

Bijou Drains

04-18-2011, 04:37 PM

Conan had bad lawyers or agents or both because they never put anything in his contract about being on Tonight at 11:35. Guess they never thought about a time change.

Cat Whisperer

04-18-2011, 05:29 PM

Conan had bad lawyers or agents or both because they never put anything in his contract about being on Tonight at 11:35. Guess they never thought about a time change.
You know, I think they must have - they came to Conan to get him to change the time of his show, he told them to go fuck themselves, and they paid him out $20 million to go away. They didn't do that out of the goodness of their pitch-black network hearts.

Bijou Drains

04-18-2011, 05:47 PM

It was widely reported he had no way to veto the show moving to 12:05. They just decided it was easier to pay him off to get Leno back.

Justin_Bailey

04-18-2011, 11:02 PM

That's kind of surprising. A Vanity Fair article I read a couple of months ago portrays the opposite.

That was part of the naivete (sp?) I was referring to. Conan assumes that the people at NBC would be fair with their dealings with him. When that proved to be fake, he didn't take it well (i.e. "What does Jay Leno have on you people?").

But Leno showed his true colors by flat out telling the executives that he'd do 11:30 somewhere if they didn't let him do it at NBC (after The Jay Leno Show proved to be a disaster). Thus the half hour idea was born, which Leno was totally on board with and couldn't comprehend why Conan would have a problem with it (even before the NBC guys told him it would be no problem).

Nunzio Tavulari

04-19-2011, 12:20 AM

I'll post this again because I think it was just ignored:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2011/01/27/tonight-show-ratings-final-score-conan-obrien-22-jay-leno-4/80436

What I read in that graph is that Leno consistently score a tenth of a ratings point below Conan. I'm no expert but I think to TV executives that's a significant amount.

In prime time, it would be a bigger issue, but the networks are locked in to who is hosting late night and none of them will be fired over this. NBC certainly would not take another risk.

I'm a Letterman man and don't have a major stake in the issue. Dave is not as good as he was in the Eighties, but none of us are. He's reported to be retiring soon and likely isn't going to make a major effort to improve ratings. Leno is likely to bow out three years later.

My belief is that Fallon will move to 11:30 because he likely has a contract that requires it. I don't think Ferguson wants Dave's job and he would likely move forward to midnight.

lindsaybluth

04-19-2011, 01:55 PM

What I find strange is that Conan's fans worked so hard to get him back on the air, then pretty much stopped watching him once he WAS back on the air.

Many young people don't have cable packages, or they only have basic. I have basic but I watch a lot of stuff on Hulu. I watched Late Night w/ Conan because back then I had Comedy Central, but I'd be a lot of Conan's target audience (at this point) simply doesn't have cable and really don't watch other shows they can't find on Hulu. If you started watching Conan in high school and progressed through college and have now graduated there's an excellent chance that you don't have get TBS now. The only non-Hulu exception I can think of is Mad Men, and people often have Mad Men parties (at the one person's house who still gets cable) or wait until a season is over to get the DVD's.

The show that's really suffered for me is the Daily Show, as I no longer watch the whole thing anymore

Agreed. As someone who started watching a few months into its inception, I'm disappointed at his overt political schtick and stopped watching about a year ago. I always liked his flat out comedy and his willingness to poke fun of both sides. Now he rarely goes after the Democrats. He no longer reads the books of his guests; he always used to ask them such pointed questions that there was no doubt he was actually reading them. Ah, well. 10 years is a long time.

Cat Whisperer

04-19-2011, 02:03 PM

<snip>
My belief is that Fallon will move to 11:30 because he likely has a contract that requires it. I don't think Ferguson wants Dave's job and he would likely move forward to midnight.I just read that Craig Ferguson has a guarantee from CBS that he will be Dave's successor.

Pashnish Ewing

04-19-2011, 08:21 PM

My belief is that Fallon will move to 11:30 because he likely has a contract that requires it.I can't imagine that NBC would have done that considering the mess Conan's agreement got them in. Although I guess I can't put it past the hapless NBC execs to make the same mistake twice.

BigT

04-20-2011, 01:57 PM

I can't imagine that NBC would have done that considering the mess Conan's agreement got them in. Although I guess I can't put it past the hapless NBC execs to make the same mistake twice.

It wouldn't surprise me if they had foolishly set it up before the whole mess.

Mahaloth

04-20-2011, 03:09 PM

I just read that Craig Ferguson has a guarantee from CBS that he will be Dave's successor.

Where did you read this?

Cat Whisperer

04-20-2011, 03:15 PM

Where did you read this?
In the book previously noted, "The War for Late Night." Page 137. :)

CaveMike

04-21-2011, 04:28 PM

I'll post this again because I think it was just ignored:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2011/01/27/tonight-show-ratings-final-score-conan-obrien-22-jay-leno-4/80436It's not that great of a comparison though. It includes Conan's launch when ratings were high as well as the bump he got after being fired. Including those one-time ratings boosts implies the article is biased.

Excluding those, Conan is still ahead more often than not, but not by a lot. I'm not sure if the difference can be attributed to different years, additional late-night talk show competition, or regulars finding Nightline while the Tonight Show was down.

aceplace57's link (which is a press-release and clearly biased) implies that Leno's show is the #1 late-night talk show for most of this season.

Cat Whisperer

04-30-2011, 11:58 AM

It was widely reported he had no way to veto the show moving to 12:05. They just decided it was easier to pay him off to get Leno back.
Okay, I've finished the book now - you're right, Conan didn't have any time specificity in his contract. In all fairness, everyone was as astonished by that as I was. :)

It also seems that no one really knows if Jay was an asshole or not; he's very closed-off to everybody, and the final consensus seems to be that either he's just a guy who wants to tell jokes at 11:30 at night, or he's some kind of Machiavellian genius.

I want to say the networks were the bad guys, but the networks were just doing what networks do. All in all, it was a very interesting read.

ETA: Oh yeah, Conan wasn't fired - he chose to quit rather than move his show back by half an hour. An...interesting choice.